Risk warning: Trading CFDs is risky and can result in the loss of your invested capital. Please ensure that you understand the risks involved and do not invest more than you can afford to lose. Read full Risk Disclosure. ForexTime Ltd is regulated by CySEC under license No. 185/12.
Risk warning: Your capital is at risk. It is possible to lose more than you invest.
Your capital is at risk. We cover you with negative balance protection.

Forex News Timeline

Thursday, August 24, 2017

The European Central Bank (ECB) policy maker and Estonian central bank chief Ardo Hansson crossed the wires late-Wednesday, via Bloomberg, speaking on

The European Central Bank (ECB) policy maker and Estonian central bank chief Ardo Hansson crossed the wires late-Wednesday, via Bloomberg, speaking on the recent Euro appreciation in  an interview in his office in Tallinn.Main Headlines:Not concerned about the strength of the euro as officials are preparing to discuss winding down their bond-purchase program "We've been moving in a corridor where I don't think it's a big change,"  “It’s not surprising that markets might react and say, on balance, we’re more upbeat about Europe than we were a while ago, which will cause the currency to be a bit stronger.” “There are two things here: one is an easing bias and the other is a bias in favor of a particular instrument.” “Maybe we want an easing bias, but we will deliver it in somewhat different combination. We are not going to tie ourselves to a particular instrument, but leave more flexibility to how we technically deliver that degree of accommodation.”

Gold bulls are again struggling to push through the key resistance zone of $1290-1300, despite Wednesday’s sharp rally from the low of $1282.  The cu

Gold bulls are again struggling to push through the key resistance zone of $1290-1300, despite Wednesday’s sharp rally from the low of $1282.  The curve or the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield narrowed to 86 basis points yesterday, thus keeping USD gains under check. Still, the bullish move stalled at $1291 in Asia, largely due to caution ahead of the Yellen’s speech at the Jackson Hole event. The central bank chief will speak on financial stability. Investors will look for clues on when the Fed plans to unwind its balance sheet and whether a December rate hike is still on the table.  Yellen may throw caution to the wind and hint at September balance sheet runoff, although the reaction in gold prices depends on how the bond markets receive Yellen’s comments. A steeper yield curve would be bearish for gold and vice versa. Gold Technical LevelsThe metal was last seen trading around $1288/Oz. A break above $1293.83 [Aug 21 high] would open up upside towards $1300 [zero levels]. On the downside, breach of support at $1287.51 [5-DMA] could yield a sell-off to $1282 [previous day’s low].   

Analysts at Nomura offered their projections for today's USD/CNY fix. Key Quotes: "Our model1 projects the fix to be 112 pips lower than the previou

Analysts at Nomura offered their projections for today's USD/CNY fix.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 112 pips lower than the previous fix (6.6521 from 6.6633) and 115 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.6636. The basket implied change is 141 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.6495 from 6.6636)."

Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks rose from previous ¥-302.5B to ¥-300.1B in August 14

Japan Foreign bond investment down to ¥-453.2B in August 14 from previous ¥-145.5B

Analysts at Nomura noted the data from the US session and offered their GDP tracking update. Key Quotes: "New home sales: July new home sales fell 9

Analysts at Nomura noted the data from the US session and offered their GDP tracking update.Key Quotes:"New home sales: July new home sales fell 9.4% m-o-m to an annualized pace of 571k, below expectations (Nomura and Consensus: no change at 610k). However, sales for the three previous months (June, May, and April) were all revised upwards notably. Recall that new home sales tend to be highly volatile due to a relatively small sample. July sales lowered the current sales pace very slightly. The three-month moving average in July, at 606k, was about 1.1% lower than the average pace in Q2 (613k). We expect modest growth in new home sales to continue in Q3. Besides supply constraints that have been weighing on new home sales, fast rising prices pose looming challenges to demand. Strong job markets and demographic factors remain favorable for consumer demand, but worsening affordability may adversely affect the demand. Low inventories stemming from shortages of skilled labor and of developable lots could be a persistent problem as it would take a significant amount of time for supply levels to adjust. Read our full report: Despite Weak Reading, New Home Sales Remain on Pace, First insights, 23 August 2017. GDP tracking update: While new home sales were slightly weaker than we expected, implying less brokers’ commissions in Q3, after rounding, our estimate Q3 GDP growth remains unchanged at 2.9% q-o-q saar. More information on residential investment from July’s existing home sales data will be released tomorrow."

Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7231, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7237 and low at 0.7220. NZD/USD is currently testing th

Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7231, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7237 and low at 0.7220. NZD/USD is currently testing the upside of the narrow range of overnight between 0.7197 and 0.7237. The trade data was the catalyst for 10 pip spike due to there being a surplus of NZ 85m vs the expected deficit of 200m. The data came after yesterday's offer in the bird post the 'government reigning in funding news' ahead of the elections on the 23rd September this year.  A key factor in the trade data was that there had been a recovery in dairy export prices that helped boost July 2017 exports.Here's Why Dollar is On Back Foot Before Jackson HoleHowever, and as analysts at Westpac noted, NZD/USD has broken down technically, with 0.7200 vulnerable today.NZD/USD 1-3 month:   The analysts at Westpac also explained that if the RBNZ remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on tighter Fed policy, then NZD/USD could fall as far as 0.70 by year end. "Pre-election jitters may also weigh on the NZD," noted the analysts.Trump bluffing a US government shutdownNZD/USD levelsTo the upside, 0.7240 and then 0.7280/00 ahead of the aforementioned 0.7337 recent highs and 0.7370 (9th Aug high) are the immediate resistance areas. To the downside, 0.7220 0.7205, the 06 June 22/21 low and 0.7186, the June 15th low, along with the 50% of the move up from the 2017 low (May low) at 0.7187 are key areas of support ahead of 0.7150 June 5 high; 0.7127 June 6 low and 0.7100.
 

New Zealand Exports registered at $4.63B above expectations ($4.42B) in July

New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) above expectations ($-200M) in July: Actual ($85M)

New Zealand Imports came in at $4.55B below forecasts ($4.6B) in July

New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) came in at $-3.21B, above expectations ($-3.507B) in July

Analysts at ANZ explained that US President Trump caused a mild risk-off move in markets overnight with his comment that he would shut down the Govern

Analysts at ANZ explained that US President Trump caused a mild risk-off move in markets overnight with his comment that he would shut down the Government if necessary, in order to secure funding for his signature project, the border wall with Mexico.Key Quotes:"This is seen as further imperilling Trump’s policy agenda, as well as increasing concern around the more important question of raising the debt ceiling. At his rally, Trump also threw in the comment that the US would “probably” terminate the NAFTA agreement “at some point.” In other developments, the firmer-than-expected national and euro area PMI data provided the euro with some support, whilst sagging US home sales in July underscored the weak recovery in residential construction activity. Market flows remain thin given the holiday period, whilst participants remain wary over the potential for some market-sensitive comments at Jackson Hole this weekend. Equities gave back some of the previous day’s gains with the DAX off 0.5%, CAC 40 off 0.3% and the S&P 500 down 0.3% at the time of writing. Bonds firmed slightly with the yield on the US 10-year note easing 4bp to 2.17%. Oil was stronger with WTI up 1.2% at $48.41/bbl on another decline in US inventories. Gold is up 0.4% to USD1289.6/oz."

Analysts at Westpac explained their outlooks for the Aussie and Kiwi cross and rates.  Key Quotes: "AUD/NZD 1 day: Potential to continue rising whil

Analysts at Westpac explained their outlooks for the Aussie and Kiwi cross and rates. Key Quotes:"AUD/NZD 1 day: Potential to continue rising while the NZD remains out of favour and iron ore prices remain elevated, 1.0965 vulnerable. AUD/NZD 1-3 month: A retest of the 1.0900 area seen in May is possible if iron ore’s rally since mid-June continues and global risk sentiment remains elevated. (8 Aug) AU swap yields 1 day: The 3yr should open around 2.08%, the 10yr around 2.81%. AU swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBA outlook (on hold for some time) is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 3yr swap rates in a 1.8% to 2.3% range, as long as core inflation remains below 2%. Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (8 Aug) NZ swap yields 1 day: NZ 2yr swap rates should open down 1bp at 2.17%, the 10yr down 3bp at 3.13, in response to US interest rates movement overnight. NZ swap yields 1-3 month: Our RBNZ outlook (on hold throughout 2018) is anchoring is anchoring short-maturity interest rates and should keep 2yr swap rates in a 2.1% to 2.6% range, as long as inflation remains below 2%.  Longer maturity rates will largely follow US rates. (8 Aug)"

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7904, up 0.00% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7910 and low at 0.7904. Trump bluffing a US government

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7904, up 0.00% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7910 and low at 0.7904.Trump bluffing a US government shutdownAUD drifted higher overnight but within a narrow range between 0.7882 and 0.7913 vs the dollar as markets await the Jackson Hole. A more risk averse day in the US session was due to Trump’s latest comments in Phoenix within a fickle market place. Stocks US, US bond yields, and the dollar were all lower as a result. The Aussie remains on a neutral footing for today while a lack of domestic data leaves traders focussed on Tokyo and China before Yellen likely repeats what she has already testified to Congress in last month's testimony.Here's Why Dollar is On Back Foot Before Jackson HoleAUD/USD 1-3 month: Analysts at Westpac recently argued that if the RBA remains firmly on hold, as we expect, and the US dollar rises on tighter Fed policy, then AUD/USD could fall to 0.76 by year end. AUD/USD levelsValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that having failed to regain the upside momentum earlier this week, the pair is back to neutral, with an increasing bearish potential according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart.  "The price remains below an anyway horizontal 20 SMA, currently around 0.7930, while technical indicators remain within negative territory, but lack directional strength. A strong static support comes at 0.7870, with a break below it exposing this month low of 0.7807," explained Bednarik. 
 

Analysts at Westpac noted today's event risk's. Key Quotes: "NZ: trade balance is expected to post a $200m deficit for July, imports higher and expo

Analysts at Westpac noted today's event risk's.Key Quotes:"NZ: trade balance is expected to post a $200m deficit for July, imports higher and exports lower than in June. UK: Q2 GDP second estimate is released. The first estimate was in line with consensus at 0.3% reflecting softness in household spending and manufacturing. US: Jul existing home sales are expected to rise 0.6% after falling 1.8% last month. The trend has flattened of late as supply continues to be cited as an issue, while the proportion of sales to first-home buyers is also tracking below average. The Jackson Hole policy symposium begins. The theme is ‘Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy’ with Yellen and Draghi scheduled to speak on Friday."