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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 90% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Reuters reports the latest update on the looming US-Iran geopolitical tensions, citing that Iran reportedly is willing to negotiate with America only

Reuters reports the latest update on the looming US-Iran geopolitical tensions, citing that Iran reportedly is willing to negotiate with America only when the US lifts pressure and apologizes. Nothing further is reported on the same. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks extend the corrective slide, unfazed by the above headlines.

More comments are crossing the wires from the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, as he continues to speak about the oil output policy. “Al

More comments are crossing the wires from the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, as he continues to speak about the oil output policy. “Allocations for June will be made in a couple of weeks so we will see what customers want. Our intent is to remain voluntary oil production limit but to be responsive to our customers’ needs. We think there will be an uptick in real demand but we will not increase our oil output pre-emptively. Most likely we will keep some level of oil production management beyond June.” Sees Saudi staying within OPEC production limit.

Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €3.42B (March) vs €2.16B

The headline German IFO business climate index came in at 99.2 in April, weaker than last month's 99.6 and missed the consensus estimates pointing to

The headline German IFO business climate index came in at 99.2 in April, weaker than last month's 99.6 and missed the consensus estimates pointing to 99.9. Meanwhile, the current economic assessment also missed estimates, arriving at 103.3 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 103.8 and 103.6 anticipated. The IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months missed markets expectations by a big margin, arriving at 95.2 for April versus expectations of 96.1 and 95.6 recorded in March. The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 125.42 Today Daily Change 43 Today Daily Change % -0.14 Today daily open 125.59 Trends Daily SMA

EUR/JPY is accelerating the leg lower after breaking below the 10-day SMA in the 126.00 neighbourhood in past sessions.While the sentiment around the European currency remains sour, the cross could drop further and test the 123.60 region, where sits March’s low.In the meantime, the cross needs to clear the multi-month resistance line, today ay 126.64, to alleviate downside pressure and refocus to recent tops near 127.00 the figure.EUR/JPY daily chart  

Germany IFO - Current Assessment below expectations (103.6) in April: Actual (103.3)

Germany IFO - Expectations below forecasts (96.1) in April: Actual (95.2)

Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations increased to -7.7 in April from previous -26.9

Germany IFO - Business Climate registered at 99.2, below expectations (99.9) in April

• A follow-through pullback in oil prices undermine Loonie and provided an additional boost. • The USD holds steady near 22-month tops and remained s

   •  A follow-through pullback in oil prices undermine Loonie and provided an additional boost.
   •  The USD holds steady near 22-month tops and remained supportive of the positive move.
   •  The key focus will remain on the latest BoC monetary policy update, scheduled later today.
The USD/CAD pair continued gaining positive traction through the early European session on Wednesday and is currently placed at near seven-week tops, just above mid-1.3400s. A combination of supporting factors continued fueling the positive momentum for the second consecutive session and assisted the pair to build on the overnight bullish break through the 1.3400 handle - the top end of a three-week-old consolidative trading range. The US Dollar held steady just below 22-month tops set on Tuesday and remained supported by the stronger US housing market data, which added to the recent upbeat retail sales figures and eased concerns of a slowdown in the world's biggest economy. This coupled with a follow-through pullback in crude oil prices, from fresh 2019 highs touched yesterday, further dented demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and remained supportive of the ongoing positive move to the highest level since March 8. The Canadian Dollar was further weighed down by growing market conviction that the Bank of Canada (BoC), at its latest monetary policy meeting this Wednesday, may again strike a more cautious tone amid the recent softness in the domestic economy. The constructive set-up clearly points to an extension of the ongoing positive momentum, even beyond YTD tops, towards reclaiming the key 1.35 psychological mark ahead of this week's more relevant market moving economic releases from the US.Technical levels to watch 

Reuters reports the latest comments by Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, with the key headlines found below. Global inventories continui

Reuters reports the latest comments by Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, with the key headlines found below. Global inventories continuing to rise, dont see need to do anything immediately. Global inventories are what will guide policy action. Actions will be guided by the fundamentals of the oil market. “We will make sure that global oil market remains balanced.” Sentiment in general is that "we should not lift our hands off the wheel". “We will not get surprised like we did in Q4 2018.” “We will not leave our customers scrambling not finding oil they need.”

Flash data for JPY futures markets from CME Group noted investors added more than 1.4K contracts on Tuesday from Monday’s final 205,886 contracts, rec

Flash data for JPY futures markets from CME Group noted investors added more than 1.4K contracts on Tuesday from Monday’s final 205,886 contracts, recording the second consecutive build. Volume followed suit, up by nearly 54.5K contracts after two drops in a row.USD/JPY should be contained at the 200-day SMAThe gradual decline in USD/JPY as of late was in tandem with rising open interest and volume in the safe haven JPY, allowing for the continuation of the current trend for the time being.

Today, we have an all-important BoC meeting for the month of April, and as we get close to the decision timings, here are the expectations as forecast

Today, we have an all-important BoC meeting for the month of April, and as we get close to the decision timings, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 7 major banks for today’s meet. Most of the researchers and economists are forecasting that the BoC is likely to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% while shifting to the neutral bias.Rabobank“We expect the BoC to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. This is unanimously expected by the 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and CAD OIS implies almost no chance of either a hike or a cut at this meeting and only around a 20% chance of a 25bp cut by the end of the year.” “Although a more cautious tone was adopted at the last meeting, the door was left open for rate hikes. Rather than being dovish, we argue that the Bank has adopted a holding stance.” “We maintain the view that the BoC will not be able to raise rates again this cycle and instead we see the Bank cutting rates in 2020 Q2.” “This meeting will be accompanied by a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) which we expect to reveal downward revisions to growth forecasts.”TD Securities“TD looks for the Bank of Canada to leave rates unchanged at 1.75%, in line with all private sector forecasts, leaving the focus on updated economic projections and tweaks to the policy statement.” “For the former, we expect the Bank to formally drop its bias towards higher rates by noting that future moves (not hikes) will be subject to increased uncertainty while updated forecasts should see near-term growth downgraded.”Danske Bank“Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at today's monetary policy meeting. Consequently focus will be on the central bank's new monetary policy report, rhetoric and not least any signals on the possibility of rate cuts amid markets now pricing roughly a 2/3 probability of a rate cut over the coming 12M.” “We don't think BoC will deliver much to the doves today. Given the rise in oil prices, the positive inflation surprises and recent strong labour market reports we think BoC will re-iterate its 'on hold' and data dependency stance, and even maintain its modest tightening bias.”ING“The Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to stick to its dovish message at its April policy meeting and keep rates on hold at 1.75%.” “The downbeat outlook for both the domestic and global economy, as well as some slightly lower inflation figures, may even push policymakers towards a more cautious attitude when it comes to further rate hikes.”Royal Bank of Canada“While no one expects a change in interest rates, hopes are Wednesday’s policy statement and Monetary Policy Report will provide clues into just how long the central bank might remain on the sidelines. A run of soft economic data—including this week’s Business Outlook Survey—have given Governor Poloz and Co. plenty of cover to take a more dovish stance.” “We expect the BoC will make its shift to a neutral policy bias official by dropping any reference to future rate hikes. And to end the policy statement by again emphasizing its dependence on data, with a particular focus on oil markets, household spending, and global trade policy.”National Bank of Canada National Bank Financial’s analysis team suggests that in Canada, the central bank will take center stage this week as in addition to Wednesday’s interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada will also release its Monetary Policy Report showing its latest economic projections. “Nobody should be surprised if the BoC’s 2019 GDP growth forecast for Canada is downgraded a tick or two from last January’s estimate of 1.7%, courtesy of a weaker-than-expected handoff from last year i.e. 2018Q4.” “The Bank’s updated estimates of potential GDP will also be important given their implications for the estimation of the output gap. How dovish will the central bank be in its statement? Probably not too much, especially if it wants markets to reconsider any remaining expectations of rate cuts this year. While data hasn’t been stellar lately, there is reason to believe a rebound is in the works after the 2018Q4-2019Q1 slowdown, especially considering the rise of oil production and prices since then.” “As such, we expect the central bank to remain in pause mode and reiterate the need to maintain the overnight rate below its neutral range.”National Australia Bank Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the Bank of Canada (BOC) April monetary policy decision due to be announced later today at 1400 GMT. “Rates very likely on hold.” “Focus therefore will turn to the outlook with weakness in the household sector under close watch.” “Markets price around a 10% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year.”

• The pair extended last week's rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA and the selling pressure intensified on Wednesday following the r

   •  The pair extended last week's rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA and the selling pressure intensified on Wednesday following the release of softer Aussie CPI figures.   •  The pair lost ground for the fifth consecutive session and a sustained break through a short-term ascending trend-line, near the 0.7100 mark, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders.   •  Despite a sharp intraday slump to the lowest level since March 11, technical indicators on the daily chart are still far from being in the oversold territory and support prospects for further downside.   •  Hence, any attempted recovery towards the 0.7050-60 horizontal zone seems more likely to get sold into and bears might now target an eventual drop towards the key 0.70 psychological mark.AUD/USD daily chart 

• Bulls once again struggled to make it through the 112.00 round figure mark. • The latest USD upsurge failed to provide any meaningful bullish impet

   •  Bulls once again struggled to make it through the 112.00 round figure mark.
   •  The latest USD upsurge failed to provide any meaningful bullish impetus.
   •  Declining US bond yields seemed to be the only factor exerting pressure.
The greenback held on the defensive against its Japanese counterpart, with the USD/JPY pair drifting back closer to over one-week lows set in the previous session. The pair traded with modest losses for the fourth session in the previous five and seemed unimpressed by the latest leg of an upsurge in the US Dollar to the highest level since June 2017, rather took cues from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields.  Even the overnight strong bullish move in the US equity markets, supported by upbeat earnings reports from Twitter/Coca Cola, which tends to undermine the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand, also did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the major.  Traders also shrugged off Tuesday's better than expected release of the US housing market data, showing that sales of new single-family homes jumped to a near 1-1/2 year high in March and eased concerns of an economic slowdown in the world's biggest economy. The downside, however, remained cushioned, at least for the time being, as investors still seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of this week's important US macro data - including the advance Q1 US GDP report, scheduled for release on Friday.Technical levels to watchOmkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor writes: “The weak follow-through to the defense of the ascending trendline seen in the Asian session yesterday has weakened the bullish case and shifted risk in favor of a drop below the previous day’s low of 111.65. Acceptance below that level would expose the recent bullish higher low of 110.84.” “The bullish view put forward by both the rising trendline (higher lows) and the upside break of the bearish expanding channel seen on April 11 would be reinforced if the pair jumps above 112.17 in the next 24 hours. That could be followed by a rally to 113.00,” he added further.
 

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that the Italian government approved an economic growth plan early-Wednesday. Key Details: The decree

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that the Italian government approved an economic growth plan early-Wednesday.Key Details:The decree called, as expected, for tax breaks and investment incentives and for simplified procedures for public tenders, but there was disagreement among ministers ahead of the meeting on proposed debt relief for the Rome municipality. Cabinet also gave the green light for the government to potentially take an equity stake in any vehicle set up to rescue loss-making airline Alitalia.

France Business Climate registered at 101, below expectations (102) in April

Christin Tuxen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the EUR/USD temporarily dropped below 1.12 yesterday further triggering a small rebound in

Christin Tuxen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the EUR/USD temporarily dropped below 1.12 yesterday further triggering a small rebound in implied volatility.Key Quotes“The move was not related to any particular headline or data release and coincided with a rally in US stocks on stronger earnings. At the same time, US rates dropped as the market priced a higher probability of Fed cuts over the coming years.” “From a technical point of view, it means the market will keep an eye on whether we could see a test near-term of the 1.1177 low from 7 March. There is not much on the calendar to drive EUR/USD before next week.”

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains on the defensive, having failed to make any impact on the 55 and 100 day moving aver

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains on the defensive, having failed to make any impact on the 55 and 100 day moving averages at 1.1291/1.1342.Key Quotes“Attention is on the 1.1176 recent low. Intraday Elliott wave counts are negative and the DMI is also negative. Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.” “We suspect that the market is trying to base but needs to do more work (we note the 13 count on the weekly chart and this adds weight to the idea of a potential base). Initial resistance is the 100 day ma at 1.1342 and the resistance line at 1.1376 ahead of the 200 day ma at 1.1433.”

The UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond was out on the wires last minutes, noting that the UK government will hold interviews for BOE Governorship over summ

The UK Chancellor Phillip Hammond was out on the wires last minutes, noting that the UK government will hold interviews for BOE Governorship over summer. BOE Governor Mark Carney's term will come to an end in January 2020. No comments were reported on the Brexit issue.

The German IFO Business Survey Overview The German IFO survey for April is slated for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Clima

The German IFO Business Survey OverviewThe German IFO survey for April is slated for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to rise slightly to 99.9 versus 99.6 previous. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen weaker at 103.6 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 96.1 in the reported month vs. 95.6 last.Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.  How could affect EUR/USD?The spot looks poised to test the 1.1177 yearly low on disappointing IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could rebound to 1.1250 levels on upbeat numbers. According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “A convincing break through the mentioned support, around the 1.1185-75 region, is likely to accelerate the slide towards 1.1120 intermediate support en-route the 1.1100 round figure mark. A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair further towards the 1.1060-50 support, representing a descending trend-line extending from August 2018 swing lows. Alternatively, a sustained move back above the 1.1225-30 region might trigger a short-covering bounce and lift the pair beyond the 1.1255-60 supply zone towards testing another short-term descending trend-line resistance, just ahead of the 1.1300 handle.”Key NotesGermany: Downside risks for the IFO report - TDS EUR futures: further retracement on the cards German IFO and BoC amongst market movers today – Danske BankAbout the German IFO Business ClimateThis German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The sentiment around the European currency remains vulnerable so far this week and is now forcing EUR/USD to once again look to 1.1200 and below as th

The selling bias around the pair stays well and sound today.The greenback stays bid near 2019 highs on data, sentiment.German IFO is coming up next in the calendar.The sentiment around the European currency remains vulnerable so far this week and is now forcing EUR/USD to once again look to 1.1200 and below as the next target zone.EUR/USD focused on German dataAfter bottoming out in the 1.1190 region on Tuesday, the pair somehow managed to regain the 1.1200 handle and a tad above soon afterwards, although the buying interest around the buck keeps the momentum in spot depressed. Positive headlines from the US-China trade front did not help the pair either, as skepticism among investors appear firm despite the upcoming visit of US negotiators to Beijing next week. In the meantime, the greenback keeps the firm note so far this week sustained by a change of heart in investors’ sentiment following Easter holidays, auspicious results in the US docket and solid earnings report in Wall Street. Later in the day, the German IFO survey will be the salient event in the region.What to look for around EURThe broad-based risk-appetite trends are posed to rule the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, while the onoging US-China trade dispute and potential deal expected to remain in centre stage in the next weeks. Recent weak results from key fundamentals in the region plus a now unlikely rebound in the activity in the second half of the year have added to the ongoing concerns that the slowdown in the region could last longer that expected and the ECB is therefore likely to remain ‘neutral/dovish’ for the foreseeable future (say until mid-2020?). On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections in late May, as the populist option in the form of the far-right and the far-left movements appears to keep swelling among voting countries.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.11% at 1.1214 and faces initial contention at 1.1192 (low Apr.23) seconded by 1.1183 (low Apr.2) and finally 1.1176 (low Mar.7). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1245 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1290 (55-day SMA) en route to1.1323 (high Apr.17).

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today, the April German Ifo data will give us the first indications of where German Q2 GDP growth is headed - ind

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today, the April German Ifo data will give us the first indications of where German Q2 GDP growth is headed - indeed the Ifo is typically a more reliable leading indicator of GDP than the PMIs.Key Quotes“In contrast to the weak data points from manufacturing PMIs, the German Ifo showed its first rebound in March since August 2018. Will that be confirmed this month?” “Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave policy rates unchanged at today's monetary policy meeting. Consequently focus will be on the central bank's new monetary policy report, rhetoric and not least any signals on the possibility of rate cuts amid markets now pricing roughly a 2/3 probability of a rate cut over the coming 12M. We don't think BoC will deliver much to the doves today. Given the rise in oil prices, the positive inflation surprises and recent strong labour market reports we think BoC will re-iterate its 'on hold' and data dependency stance, and even maintain its modest tightening bias.”

Asian stocks refrained from following their global counterparts on Wednesday.

Asian stocks refrained from following their global counterparts on Wednesday as lack of earnings’ boost, stronger US Dollar and expectations of a monetary easing halt from China drew major attention. Wall Street took the green on Tuesday after upbeat earnings from Twitter, Coca Cola, United Technologies and Lockheed Martin pleased equity buyers. The DJIA grew 0.55% to 26,657 while S&P closes at the record high of 2,934 and Nasdaq grew to 8,121 with 1.30% gains. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan was down nearly 0.5% by the press time whereas Japan’s Nikkei was also losing around 0.30%. The biggest loser was South Korea’s KOSPI that slid more than 1.0% while 0.90% and 0.70% respective gains by Australia’s ASX200 and New Zealand’s NZX50 stood on the other end. The antipodeans took advantage of speculations suggesting a May month rate-cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after today’s sluggish print of quarterly inflation numbers. China’s HANG SENG was 0.75% in red by the time of writing as investors keep expecting less stimulus from the dragon nation while going forward. Additionally, India’s BSE Sensex was little changed due to swift in market mood amid on-going national elections. Risk-tone in the market was also weighing a bit heavier as 10-year US treasury yields are presently losing one basis point (bp) to 2.55% after shedding two bps yesterday. Investors have started reacting positively to the latest news from the US that the lawmakers are likely to head again to Beijing for final trade talks ahead of Chinese leaders’ meet during early May. However, pessimism surrounding Brexit and antipodeans, coupled with lack of economic data, could keep limiting the equity market gains.

Open interest in GBP futures markets rose by more than 6.3K contracts on Tuesday from Monday’s final 151,528 contracts, according to advanced data fro

Open interest in GBP futures markets rose by more than 6.3K contracts on Tuesday from Monday’s final 151,528 contracts, according to advanced data from CME Group. In the same line, volume increased by almost 73.9K contracts, reversing the previous pullback.GBP/USD could now slip back below 1.2800Cable closed at daily lows on Tuesday accompanied by rising open interest and volume. That said, a deeper pullback is now expected without any support of relevance until February’s low in sub-1.2800 levels.

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for downside risks in the German IFO report, with the Current Assessment Index falling 0.8pts to 103.0 (mkt: 103

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for downside risks in the German IFO report, with the Current Assessment Index falling 0.8pts to 103.0 (mkt: 103.5) while the Expectations Index remains unchanged at 95.6 (mkt: 96.1).Key Quotes“Last week's survey data (ZEW, PMI) suggest that March was the trough for activity in the sector, but gains were relatively muted and the data is unlikely to show a more sustained improvement until next month.”

FX option expiries for Apr 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1200 630m 1.1300 760m 1.1325 699m -

FX option expiries for Apr 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1200 630m 1.1300 760m  1.1325 699m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.3070 340m 1.3115 252m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  110.80 400m 111.00 762m  111.30 550m  111.40 540m  111.45 1.1b  111.50 825m  112.00 425m  112.30 520m 

According to CME Group’s preliminary figures for EUR futures markets, open interest increased by nearly 5.1K contracts on Tuesday while volume went up

According to CME Group’s preliminary figures for EUR futures markets, open interest increased by nearly 5.1K contracts on Tuesday while volume went up by around 155.3K contracts.EUR/USD still targets 1.1176The down move in EUR/USD on Tuesday found sustain in rising open interest and volume, which keeps a potential test of yearly lows well on the cards for the time being.

Daily chart Trend: Bullish Pivot points R3 6.7578 R2 6.744 R1 6.7366 PP 6.7228 S1 6.7154 S2 6.7016 S3 6.6942 Updated Apr 23, 00:00 GMT

USD/CNH closed well above the confluence of the trendline connecting Nov. 30 and Dec. 21 highs and the 50-day moving average (MA) on Tuesday, confirming a bearish-to-bullish trend change. The upside break of the trendline validates the bearish exhaustion signaled by the multiple long-tailed weekly candles. As a result, the path of least resistance appears to be on the higher side. The bullish case would further strengthen if the pair closes above 6.7497 (March 28 high). That would open up upside toward the 200-day moving average (MA), currently at 6.8204. The bullish case would weaken if the spot falls back below the falling trendline.Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points 

Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has jumped by a healthy margin of 3.6% last week, taking the index to its highest level since December,

Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has jumped by a healthy margin of 3.6% last week, taking the index to its highest level since December, notes the research team at ANZ.Key Quotes“Current finances were also up 3.6% to 109.2, which is an eight-month high. Future financial conditions were up by 5.2%, its fourth straight weekly gain.” “Current economic conditions rose by 2%, while future economic conditions jumped by 7.7%. Future economic conditions are now the highest since 2013.” “The ‘time to buy a household item’ was flat. Four-week moving average inflation expectations were stable at 4.0%. The weekly reading rose by 4.2%, however, reversing much of the prior week’s decline.”

the USD/IDR pair still has multiple upside resistances to clear to justify its strength while it trades near 14,120 during early Wednesday.

Despite recovering past-Indonesian election, the USD/IDR pair still has multiple upside resistances to clear to justify its strength while it trades near 14,120 during early Wednesday. The first resistance being 14,1485/90 confluence including 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of December 2018 to February 2019 downturn and a four-week long descending trend-line. Should prices manage to cross 14,190, 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 14,210 and a downward sloping trend-line since early-March at 14,265 might lure the buyers. Additionally, the pair’s successful rise above 14,265 highlights 14,330/40 resistance-area for the Bulls to observe. Meanwhile, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 14,060 and 14,000 could act as immediate support for the pair, a break of which can recall early-month lows near 13,970. During the quote’s extended south-run beneath 13,970, 13,940, 13,870 and 13,855 are likely to become bears’ favorites.USD/IDR daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is prolonging the positive start of the week and navigates the upper end of the range near 97.70

The index gives away some gains after Tuesday’s YTD highs.Yields of the US 10-year note plummet below 2.55%.US-China trade talks, German IFO in the limelight.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is prolonging the positive start of the week and navigates the upper end of the range near 97.70 ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.US Dollar Index up on data, sentimentThe upbeat mood around the buck lifted the index to fresh yearly peaks on Tuesday in the area just below 97.80, levels visited for the last time in June 2017, all on the back of solid US data releases, strong earnings reports in Wall Street and positive headlines from the US-China trade front. In fact, the White House announced yesterday it will send officials to Beijing next week in order to resume talks and look to finally clinch a long-waited trade agreement. On another direction, results from the US housing sector saw New Home Sales expanding 4.5% during March, or by 692K units, surpassing February’s print and initial estimates. Later today in the US, the only event of note will be the weekly report on crude oil supplies by the EIA, while the release of the German IFO survey and the monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada will also grab attention.What to look for around USDThe upbeat momentum in the buck appears sustained by solid prints in the domestic docket as of late in combination with weakness from overseas data, mostly from Euroland, while hopes of a US-China trade deal appears now re-ignited. The recent mixed views from the FOMC minutes reinforce the neutral stance of the Fed for the next months, although a rate raise has not been ruled out just yet. On the greenback’s positive side we find solid US fundamentals, its safe haven appeal, favourable yield spreads vs. its peers and the status of global reserve currency. This, plus the Fed’s current neutral/bullish prospects of monetary policy vs. the dovish shift seen in its G10 peers is expected to keep occasional dips in the buck shallow for the time being.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.04% at 97.63 and faces the next hurdle at 97.78 (2019 high Apr.23) seconded by 97.87 (high Jun.20 2017) and then 99.89 (high May 11 2017). On the other hand, a breach of 97.26 (low Apr.22) would aim for 96.85 (55-day SMA) and finally 96.75 (low Apr.12).

Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac, suggests that they are expecting a small rise in the New Zealand’s unemployment rate to 4.4% in the March

Michael Gordon, senior economist at Westpac, suggests that they are expecting a small rise in the New Zealand’s unemployment rate to 4.4% in the March quarter.Key Quotes“Low business confidence appears to have led to a slower pace of hiring.” “The labour market has tightened in recent years, and is close to estimates of the sustained maximum level of employment. However, the Reserve Bank would be concerned if employment trends were heading in the wrong direction.” “We expect a modest pickup in wage growth in the March quarter. More significant government-related increases are likely to come later in the year.”

The USD bulls regained poise in Wednesday’s Asian trading while the Aussie got hammered across the board following a miss on the Australian headline a

The USD bulls regained poise in Wednesday’s Asian trading while the Aussie got hammered across the board following a miss on the Australian headline and core CPI figures for the first quarter. Disappointing Australian inflation report led the markets to re-price their RBA rate cut forecasts to as soon as the next month, drowning the AUD/USD pair to six-week lows at 0.7027. The Kiwi also lost ground in tandem with its OZ peer, the AUD, and hit fresh three-month lows of 0.6614. The sentiment around the Antipodeans was also dented by a broad decline across the commodities space, with oil prices extending its retreat from six-month tops. Gold prices on Comex headed back to YTD lows below 1270 levels, despite mixed Asian equities and negative Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar traded firmer again this session, as markets resorted to repositioning ahead of the Bank of Canada (BOC) rate decision. The safe-haven Yen picked-up bids towards Asia closing but traded within its familiar 111.75-112.00 range while both the European currencies, the Euro and the GBP, traded little changed, awaiting fresh impetus from the German data and Brexit-related headlines.Main Topics in AsiaLabour says Theresa May unwilling to offer key Brexit concessions - The Guardian Venezuela imports crude for the first time in five years – Bloomberg PBOC injects liquidity via one year TMLF WH: USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin to travel to Beijing for trade talks starting April 30 Australia's Q1 CPI arrives at 0.0% q/q, misses estimates (Aussie slumps) AUD/USD: Premium for put options rises with the weak Aussie CPI release AUD/USD: Premium for put options rises with the weak Aussie CPI release Brent Oil Technical Analysis: Rally stalls with double top on hourly chart IMF’s Lagarde: Had a meeting with the PBOC Governor Yi regarding international cooperation UK employers fear Brexit hit to economy, but plan more hiring – REC Survey Gold: Bears target $1263 amid broad USD demandKey Focus AheadMarkets gear up for a busy EUR economic calendar, the first one after the Easter holiday break, with the key German IFO survey on the radar for fresh hints on the Euro area growth outlook. The headline German business climate index for April (due at 0800 GMT) is seen a tad firmer at 99.9 vs. 99.6 previous. Should the data disappoint the Euro will take a fresh beating across the board. At the same time, the Swiss ZEW survey for April and the European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin will be published. From the UK docket, the second-tier macro release in the March public sector borrowing data will be reported at 0830 GMT. Moving on, the Bank of Canada (BOC) monetary policy decision at 1400 GMT and the post-policy press conference at 1415 GMT will headline the NA trading. The BOC is likely to keep the rates on hold but its assessment of the economic outlook and the take on the future policy path will be closely eyed for any big moves in the Canadian dollar. Also, the focus will be on the EIA crude stocks data dropping in at 1430 GMT for fresh oil trades and its eventual impact on the Loonie. Meanwhile, the US calendar remains data-empty for today. EUR/USD: Key support exposed ahead of the German IFO data The bearish-EUR case may strengthen further if the forward-looking German business climate, expectations and current assessment indices for April, published by the IFO, miss estimates by a wide margin. The data is due for release at 08:00 GMT.  GBP/USD: Sellers in command amid 200-day SMA break, Brexit pessimism Ongoing Brexit deadlock and likely future troubles for the UK PM May joins dip beneath 200-day SMA to please the bears. The absence of economic data/events pushes traders more towards qualitative factors. Bank of Canada Rate Policy Preview: Shift to neutral The Bank of Canada will maintain its overnight target rate at 1.75% when it concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining the pause which began last October.   FX: How to trade in a low volatility market This month, volatility in the currency market fell to its lowest level in five years. In times like this, many analysts argue that big moves are on the horizon but it could be upwards of a year before that happens.    

USD/CHF one-month 25 delta risk reversals are currently trading at -0.325, the highest level since May 16, 2018. The risk reversals indicate the impli

USD/CHF one-month 25 delta risk reversals are currently trading at -0.325, the highest level since May 16, 2018. The risk reversals indicate the implied volatility premium or demand for the USD/CHF put options is at the weakest in nearly 12 months. So, it seems safe to say that investors are unwinding bearish bets (or possibly adding bullish bets) to position for gains in the USD/CHF spot. The pair is currently trading at 1.0205, having hit a high of 1.02305 yesterday. At that level, the spot was up nearly 3 percent on a month-to-date basis.CHF1MRR

Japan Coincident Index above forecasts (98.8) in February: Actual (100.4)

Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 97.1, below expectations (97.4) in February

Daily candlestick chart Daily line chart 15-minute chart Trend: Neutral Pivot points R3 0.8746 R2 0.8715 R1 0.8697 PP 0.8666 S1 0.8648 S2 0.8617 S3 0.

EUR/GBP created a doji candle yesterday, signaling indecision in the market place. As a result, the bullish view put forward by the falling channel breakout, confirmed earlier this week as per the daily line chart, stands neutralized.  A close today below 0.8636 (Doji low) would validate the signs of indecision and confirm a bearish doji reversal.  The falling wedge breakout would be revived if the cross closes today above 0.8682, invalidating the doji candle created yesterday.  The probability of bullish close would rise if the bull flag seen on the 15-minute chart is breached to the higher side. That would create room for a rise to 0.8720 (target as per the measured move method). Daily candlestick chart Daily line chart15-minute chartTrend: NeutralPivot points 

ANZ analysts are expecting to see a stable unemployment rate of New Zealand at 4.3% in Q1. Key Quotes “Labour market data has been volatile in recent

ANZ analysts are expecting to see a stable unemployment rate of New Zealand at 4.3% in Q1.Key Quotes“Labour market data has been volatile in recent quarters; last quarter we saw a rise, but the general trend has been a gradual tightening. But further improvement in the near term seems unlikely with GDP growth subdued.” “Wage inflation is expected to have firmed to 2.1% y/y, reflecting both previous tightening in the labour market and minimum wage increases.” “A stable or slightly lower unemployment rate should set the scene for the RBNZ to deliver a downward-sloping OCR track at the May MPS, in line with our expectation for an August rate cut. A higher unemployment rate and subdued wage inflation would add to the risk of a rate cut as soon as May.”

GBP/USD's recent pullback isn't a sign of recovery as Brexit pessimism and break of 200-day SMA please sellers.

On-going Brexit deadlock and likely future troubles for the UK PM May joins dip beneath 200-day SMA to please the Bears.The absence of economic data/events pushes traders more towards qualitative factors.The GBP/USD pair is taking the rounds near 1.2940 while heading into the London open on Wednesday. The Cable slipped to the lowest in nine-week on Tuesday as the return of the UK lawmakers from Easter recess flooded global markets with Brexit pessimism. In addition to doubts over the future position of British PM Theresa May, less development at the cross-party talks to overcome Brexit deadlock also weigh on the British Pound (GBP). On the other hand, welcome data points, the surge in equities and investor trust over the greenback during uncertain times fuelled the US Dollar (USD) versus the majority of its counterparts. The Cable witnessed some profit-booking moves during the early Asian session on Wednesday amid Reuters report of increased hiring from the UK in short-term. Though, the same can’t be termed as signaling the pair’s recovery as doubts over smooth British departure and break of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) favor the sellers. Also to note, there are no major economic data/events scheduled for release during the rest of the day, which in-turn highlights qualitative catalysts for fresh impulse. Among them, the US equity moves, politics and Brexit are some headline words to observe.Technical AnalysisGiven the pair’s sustained trading beneath 1.2970/60 support-zone comprising 200-day and 100-day SMA, chances of its additional south-run to 1.2900, 1.2880 and 1.2830 can’t be denied. However, a successful break of 1.2970 can reprint 1.3000 and 1.3030 on the chart with six-week long descending trend-line at 1.3050 being follow-on resistance to follow.

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Australia’s March quarter core CPI rose by a feeble +0.2%/q and 1.4%/y, well short of even the most pessimisti

Analysts at TD Securities note that the Australia’s March quarter core CPI rose by a feeble +0.2%/q and 1.4%/y, well short of even the most pessimistic forecast.Key Quotes“The RBA in February looked for 1.8%/y for June core inflation, and so a new starting point of 1.4%/y is a significant challenge to the Bank's rosy core scenario of "returning inflation towards the midpoint of the target".” “Today's significant downside miss is a game-changer for our on-hold view. The question is when the RBA cuts, not if, given ongoing GDP growth and inflation disappointment. The pickup in core inflation was painfully slow as it was, and now at 1.4%/y has reversed two years of gradual gains.” “Change of View: We now look for -25bp on 7 May to 1.25%. We do not subscribe to consecutive May/June cuts for two reasons (1) the collapse in BBSW removes any impediment for retail banks to pass on the cut in full and (2) the RBA can assess the impact of the rate cut, and also wait and see how accommodative fiscal policy will be once a new government is formed after the May 18 election. At this stage we lean towards a follow-up cut to 1% in August. The RBA has not delivered consecutive 25bp cuts since 2012.”

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in February: Actual (-0.2%)

According to analysts at ANZ, the downward surprise in Australia’s core inflation in Q1 leaves the RBA will little choice but to cut the cash rate by

According to analysts at ANZ, the downward surprise in Australia’s core inflation in Q1 leaves the RBA will little choice but to cut the cash rate by 25bp at its May meeting, with another 25bp likely to follow in August.Key Quotes“The much lower than expected outcome for core inflation means that something has to materially change in order for the RBA to credibly forecast an eventual return to 2% inflation. That something has to be a stronger growth outlook that puts material downward pressure on underemployment in the labour market.” “The contribution the RBA can make to a stronger growth outlook is to ease monetary policy which, in its own words, will “support the economy through a depreciation of the exchange rate and by reducing required interest payments on borrowing, freeing up cash for other expenditure.” We have doubts that modest rate cuts will do much to push inflation sustainably higher, but it’s hard to see that the RBA has much choice but to use the tool at its disposal, ie a lower cash rate. We don’t see the timing of the election being a constraint on the RBA acting.”

EUR/USD is on the defensive ahead of the German Gfk consumer confidence release, having dropped 0.27 percent on Tuesday. The shared currency fell to 1

EUR/USD is looking south, having printed three-week lows yesterday on the back of broad-based dollar demand. Technical studies are biased bearish. Traders may continue to buy US dollars today on growing US-EU economic divergence. The pivotal support at 1.1176 may come into play if the German data, due at 06:00 GMT, disappoints markets. EUR/USD is on the defensive ahead of the German Gfk consumer confidence release, having dropped 0.27 percent on Tuesday.  The shared currency fell to 1.1192 yesterday, the lowest level since April 2, as traders snapped up US dollars, possibly in response to the macro data released last week, which triggered hopes the world’s biggest economy may have fared better-than-expected in the first quarter.  The drop to levels below 1.12, however, was short-lived, seemingly due to the narrowing of yield spreads. The difference between the yields on the 10-year US and German government bond yields fell more than five basis points to 253 basis points in the EUR-positive manner.  As a result, the spot closed yesterday at 1.1226.  Despite the pair’s recovery from 1.12, technicals remain bearish with the 4-hour chart reporting a bear flag pattern. The 5-, 10- and 20-day moving averages (MAs) are trending south and the pair created a bearish lower high along the 50-day MA last week. The spot, therefore, appears on track to test the pivotal support at 1.1176 (March low).  Further, traders may continue to buy US dollars, courtesy of growing economic divergence between the US and the Eurozone. Also, the common currency may remain on the defensive as polls show Spaniards are undecided less than a week ahead of the general elections  (scheduled for Sunday).  The bearish-EUR case may strengthen further if the forward-looking Gfk survey, due at 06:00 GMT, shows the consumer confidence in Germany – the Eurozone’s biggest economy – is set to deteriorate sharply in May. Pivot points  

Following the release of dismal Australian CPI readings for the first quarter, the Citibank analysts now see a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Austral

Following the release of dismal Australian CPI readings for the first quarter, the Citibank analysts now see a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) next month.Key Quotes:“Expect a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in May, the second cut could well follow the next month, in June. The bank had previously been calling for the rate on hold.  The inflation result … 'should now be little resistance' to further monetary policy stimulus, despite improving China, resilient labor market, household debt at high levels.”

Gold dropped to the year’s low recently after the return of global traders were welcomed by upbeat US data and rising equities contrast to weak Aussie data.

Greenback strength erodes the bullion’s safe-haven demand.The US Dollar (USD) is likely cheering upbeat data and rising equities at home that contrasts to sluggish outcome abroad.Gold is on the rounds near $1269 ahead of European open on Wednesday. The yellow metal dropped to the year’s low on Tuesday after global traders were welcomed by upbeat US data and rising equities when they returned from Easter break. The US new home sales grew more than 0.650 million forecasts to 0.692 million with the change in percentage terms beating -2.5% market consensus with +4.5% rise. Global equity markets were also on the rise after positive results from Twitter and Coca Cola buoyed trade sentiment. The S&P 500 posted record close whereas DJIA and Nasdaq also grew more than 0.5%. The greenback favor was carried forward during early Wednesday when quarterly Aussie CPI data disappointed global markets with 0.0% QoQ readout versus 0.2% forecast and 0.5% prior. The US 10-year government bond yields generally have a negative correlation to gold prices and are presently unchanged around 2.56%. Looking forward, risk events like Brexit, the US-China trade deal and geopolitical plays surrounding North Korea, Syria and Libya are likely to entertain the metal traders.Gold Technical AnalysisConsidering 12-day old descending trend-line, the bullion may extend its downside but an eight-month-long upward sloping support-line at $1263 might challenge bears, which if broken could recall $1260 and $1257 ahead of highlighting 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $1250. Meanwhile, $1273 trend-line resistance, $1278 and $1281 may limit the quote’s nearby upside, a break of which can shift buyers’ attention to 100-day SMA level of $1291.

According to the latest survey conducted by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), the UK labor market showed a surprising strength even

According to the latest survey conducted by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), the UK labor market showed a surprising strength even though the British employers are concerns about the looming economic prospects amid Brexit uncertainty. Neil Carberry, the REC’s Chief Executive, noted: “The more positive figures on hiring for temporary workers suggest that many businesses are turning to agency work to help them navigate the unpredictability they currently face.”  “This might be driven by waiting to see whether permanent hiring is justified, or by using additional labor to meet demand rather than making big capital investments.”

One-month 25 delta risk reversals on AUD/USD(AUD1MRR), a gauge of puts to calls on the Australian currency, fell from -0.65 to -0.725 post the Aussie

One-month 25 delta risk reversals on AUD/USD(AUD1MRR), a gauge of puts to calls on the Australian currency, fell from -0.65 to -0.725 post the Aussie CPI release, signaling a rise in demand (implied volatility premium) for the Aussie dollar put options (bearish bets). The inflation, as represented by the consumer price index, rose 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, missing the estimated rise of 0.4 percent, the official data released at 01:30 GMT today showed.  The first quarter annualized core CPI or RBA's trimmed mean also missed estimates by printing at 1.6 percent, after having risen 1.8 percent in the preceding quarter. The increased demand for the Aussie puts indicates the investors are hedging for a deeper drop in the Australian currency. The AUD/USD hit six-week lows near 0.7030 a few minutes before press time.AUD1MRR

NZD/USD broke 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October to December 2018 upside and indicates further declines towards 0.6600 and 0.6585.

NZD/USD flashes fresh low of the month by being near 0.6620 after Australia’s sluggish inflation data also negatively affected the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) because of their trade ties. The pair has already dipped beneath 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October to December 2018 upside, signaling brighter chances of further declines towards late-October highs near 0.6610 followed by January month low around 0.6585. If at all the quote continues trading southward under 0.6585, 0.6570, 0.6510 and 0.6470 may offer intermediate halts during the further downpour to 0.6420. Alternatively, an upside clearance above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6630 can recall 0.6670 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6700. However, 0.6700-0.6710 area and 0.6730 resistance-confluence comprising 200-day SMA and a month old descending trend-line could challenge buyers then after.NZD/USD daily chartTrend: Bearish  

Daily chart Trend: Cautiously bullish Pivot points R3 1.3564 R2 1.3504 R1 1.3462 PP 1.3402 S1 1.3362 S2 1.3302 S3 1.326 Updated Apr 23, 00:00 GMT

USD/CAD jumped to 1.3456 soon before press time, the highest level since March 8, possibly on the back of broad-based US dollar strengthen and expectations that the Bank of Canada will adopt a neutral stance on interest rates later today and raise growth forecasts lower.  Notably, the currency pair is currently trading above the upper edge of the contracting triangle, as seen on the daily chart.  A breakout would be confirmed if the pair remains above that key hurdle post the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, due today at 14:00 GMT.  That would open the doors to a retest of January highs above 1.3660.  The outlook would turn bearish if and when the spot finds acceptance below the lower edge of the triangle.
Daily chartTrend: Cautiously bullishPivot points 

AUD/USD fell to 0.7031 soon before press time, the lowest level since March 11, extending the 40-pip drop seen immediately after the Aussie CPI releas

AUD/USD has slipped to six-week lows near 0.7030 in response to the weaker-than-expected Aussie CPI release. The AU-US 10-year bond yield spread has hit a fresh multi-decade low in the AUD-negative manner. AUD/USD fell to 0.7031 soon before press time, the lowest level since March 11, extending the 40-pip drop seen immediately after the Aussie CPI release at 01:30 GMT. The cost of living in Australia, as represented by the consumer price index, cooled to 0.3 percent in the first three months (Q1) of 2019, following a 0.4 percent rise in the final three months of 2018. The markets were expecting a quarter-on-quarter rise of 0.4 percent in the first quarter. The RBA's mean or core inflation also cooled to 1.6 percent in Q1, having risen by 1.8 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of the last year. With the below-forecast inflation figure, the spread between the Aussie and US 10-year government bond yields have dropped to -0.76 basis points - the lowest level since October 1981. As a result, the sell-off in the Aussie dollar looks to have legs, meaning the psychological support of 0.70 could come into play in the next 24 hours.Pivot points 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that they have had a meet

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that they have had a meeting with the PBOC Governor Yi Gang regarding international cooperation.

Hourly chart Trend: Minor correction possible Pivot points R3 74.86 R2 74.5 R1 74.15 PP 73.79 S1 73.44 S2 73.08 S3 72.73 Updated Apr 23, 00:00 GMT

Brent oil is currently trading at $74.05 per barrel, having hit a high of $74.70 yesterday. That was the highest level since Nov. 1.  The rally seems to have stalled with signs of indecision on the daily chart – Brent created a doji candle yesterday.  Further, on the hourly chart, the black gold seems to be creating a double top pattern with the neckline support at $73.96.  Acceptance below that neckline support would confirm a double top breakdown and create room for a deeper pullback to $73.22 (target as per the measured move method). A daily close below $74.00 would validate yesterday’s doji candle and neutralize the immediate bullish outlook. Hourly chartTrend: Minor correction possiblePivot points 

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the Bank of Canada (BOC) April monetary policy decision due to be

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the Bank of Canada (BOC) April monetary policy decision due to be announced later today at 1400 GMT.Key Quotes:“Rates very likely on hold. Focus therefore will turn to the outlook with weakness in the household sector under close watch. Markets price around a 10% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year.”

Australia's 10-year government bond yield slipped to three-week lows on Wednesday, as the quarterly Australian inflation figure missed estimates valid

Aussie 10-year bond yield fell eight basis points to three-week lows after the dismal Aussie inflation figure. Australia's consumer price index cooled to 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2019.Australia's 10-year government bond yield slipped to three-week lows on Wednesday, as the quarterly Australian inflation figure missed estimates validating the dovish RBA expectations.  The benchmark bond yield fell eight basis points to 1.799 percent, the lowest level since March 4 after the official data released at 01:30 GMT showed the consumer price inflation (CPI) rose 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, narrowly missing the estimated rise to 0.4 percent.  Further, the RBA's trimmed mean CPI also came-in weaker-than-expected at an annualized 1.6 percent. The below-forecast CPI readings may bolster the bets of RBA cutting rates twice in the second half of this year. The central bank ditched its long-held tightening bias in February. Most investment banks have predicted two rate cuts for 2019 ever since. 
 

AUD/NZD slipped beneath an upward sloping trend-line stretched since late-March after Australia’s headline inflation numbers disappointed Aussie buyers.

AUD/NZD trades around the lowest level in a week to 1.0630 during early Wednesday. The pair slipped beneath an upward sloping trend-line stretched since late-March after Australia’s headline inflation numbers, namely consumer prices index (CPI) and RBA trimmed mean CPI, lagged behind market consensus and prior readings. In addition to breaking near-term support-line, the quote is also testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March to April upside, at 1.0620, which if broken could further weaken the pair in direction to 1.0570 horizontal-line. If prices keep trading southward under 1.0570, 1.0530 and 1.0500 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. During the reversal/pullback, 1.0640 and 1.0670 can be considered as nearby resistances whereas a weeklong descending trend-line at 1.0680 may challenge buyers then after. Should there be increased buying pressure past-1.0680, 1.0700 and 1.0730 could become Bulls’ favorites.AUD/NZD 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

The Australian dollar is fast losing altitude in response to the weaker-than-expected Australian first quarter consumer price index released at 01:30

Australia's first quarter consumer price index missed estimates, sending the AUD lower across the board. AUD/JPY has dropped to 78.76 - 61.8% Fib R of 77.5/80.72. The key Fib hurdle could be breached as Australia's 10-year government bond has dropped sharply on the back of weak data. The Australian dollar is fast losing altitude in response to the weaker-than-expected Australian first quarter consumer price index released at 01:30 GMT.  The AUD/JPY pair has shed more than 50 pips and is currently trading at 78.76, which is the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 77.54 to 80.72.  Australia's inflation as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2019, missing the expected 0.4 percent rise. The inflation had risen by 0.4 percent in the final quarter of 2018.  The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) trimmed mean, which is widely considered a more reliable figure, rose 1.6 percent year-on-year, missing the estimate of 1.7 percent and down from the previous quarter's print of 1.8 percent.  The below-forecast CPI readings will likely reinforce the dovish RBA expectations. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates in the second half of this year, having ditched its long-held tightening bias in February.  AUD/JPY, therefore, may find acceptance below the 61.8 percent Fib support of 78.76. Supporting that bearish case is the fact that Australia's 10-year government bond yield has nosedived by eight basis points to 1.80 percent following the release of the dismal CPI reading. Pivot points

AUD/USD drops to 0.7050 just after quarterly inflation data from Australia shook Aussie during early Wednesday.

Softer than expected and previous readouts of inflation data opens the gate for the RBA’s dovish comments.Risk events will be in the spotlight for now.AUD/USD drops to 0.7050 just after quarterly inflation data from Australia shook Aussie during early Wednesday. The pair previously declined on the greenback strength and marker risk-off due to the return of global investors from Easter holidays. The first quarter (Q1) 2019 inflation numbers for Australia signal weak picture of the commodity-linked economy. The headline consumer price index (CPI) grew 0.0% versus 0.2% forecast and 0.5% prior on a quarterly basis while registering a 1.3% YoY increase against 1.5% market consensus and .8% earlier. Further, RBA trimmed mean CPI flashed 0.3% against 0.4% forecast and prior but the yearly facts revealed 1.6% figure compared to 1.7% expected and 1.8% previous readout. As we have already witnessed the Aussie inflation data, market focus may shift towards the US catalysts as few signals from Australia are left to observe. The US economic calendar seems silent for the day and has no major details to observe. However, earnings season is on its run and may keep affecting the global risk sentiments. Off-late numbers from the US giants like Twitter and Coca Cola pleased equity buyers. Additionally, developments surrounding the US-China trade talks and any confirmations on likely break of China’s monetary stimulus could also direct near-term Aussie moves. Furthermore, AUD/USD is also considered as a risk barometer and hence moves surrounding the US 10-year treasury yield, another indicator of market sentiment, should also be followed closely. The US yield currently remains unchanged near 2.57% but dropped almost 2 basis points on Tuesday.AUD/USD Technical Analysis50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.7115 and 100-day SMA level of 0.7135 are likely immediate resistances ahead of the 200-day SMA level near 0.7185/90. Alternatively, sustained break of 0.7100-0.7095 support-zone, comprising seven-week-old support-line can fetch prices to 0.7050, 0.7030 and March month lows near 0.7000.

Following the above-forecasts Australia's Q4 2019 CPI readings, today's inflation figures for the Q1 showed a bleak picture, with the headline figures

Following the above-forecasts Australia's Q4 2019 CPI readings, today's inflation figures for the Q1 showed a bleak picture, with the headline figures missing expectations.Main HeadlinesQ1 CPI headline q/q +0.0% vs. 0.2% exp and 0.5% prior. Q1 CPI headline y/y +1.3% vs. 1.5% exp and 1.9% prior.

Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.3%, below expectations (1.5%) in 1Q

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 1.6% below forecasts (1.7%) in 1Q

Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0%)

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (0.3%)

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7205 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7082.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7205 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7082. 

The White House published a statement last minutes, citing that the US Trade Representative (USTR) Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are likel

The White House published a statement last minutes, citing that the US Trade Representative (USTR) Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are likely to travel to Beijing for trade talks starting April 30th. The Chinese delegation will visit the US for further negotiations starting May 8th.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected ¥267 billion via one year targeted medium term lending facility (TMLF) with an aim to boost lending to

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected ¥267 billion via one year targeted medium term lending facility (TMLF) with an aim to boost lending to small private firms.  The positive effect of an increased supply of credit to small firms could be seen in the form an uptick in the Caixin China's manufacturing PMI's over the next few months. The guage surveys the small and medium-sized export oritented units as opposed to the government PMI, which mainly focuses on the state-owned enterprises with an easy access to credit. 

EUR/JPY dropped below four-week-old ascending trend-line on Tuesday and on the decline since then, indicating brighter chances of flashing 125.00 – 124.95 area.

EUR/JPY is trading near 125.50 during early Wednesday. The quote dropped below four-week-old ascending trend-line on Tuesday and on the decline since then, indicating brighter chances of flashing 125.00 – 124.95 area again on the chart. Should the quote drops beneath 124.95, there are multiple supports between 124.60 and 124.40 whereas 124.00 can please sellers then after. In a case where prices decline below 124.00, 123.80 and 123.60 could flash on the Bears’ radar ahead of aiming 123.00. On the upside, 125.60 and immediate descending trend-line at 125.85 can keep limiting the pair’s advances, a break of which may escalate the recovery to 126.30. However, 126.75/80 is a tough resistance-zone past-126.30 which if broken could propel the quote towards 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of its recent moves near 127.25.EUR/JPY 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

Daily chart Trend: Bearish Pivot points R3 146.42 R2 146.03 R1 145.37 PP 144.97 S1 144.32 S2 143.92 S3 143.26 Updated Apr 23, 00:00 GMT

GBP/JPY is currently flatlined just above the 200-day moving average (MA) line of 144.58.  The currency pair fell 0.39 percent yesterday and closed below the support at 144.78 (April 9 low), validating the 14-day relative strength index's (RSI) move to the bearish territory below 50 seen on April 18.  The path of least resistance, therefore, is to the downside. The 200-day MA support of 144..58 could be breached during the day ahead, allowing a drop to the head-and-shoulders neckline support at 144.00.Daily chartTrend: BearishPivot points 

The USD/JPY pair trades little changed to 111.80 as Tokyo opens on Wednesday.

Traders struggled to choose between the two safe-havens during Tuesday’s risk-off.Light economic calendar keeps emphasizing political plays while looking for fresh direction.The USD/JPY pair trades little changed to 111.80 as Tokyo opens on Wednesday. The pair failed to justify the JPY’s safe-haven demand on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) was on the rise across the board. The quote remained mostly unchanged on Tuesday as traders struggled to justify their preference between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) during risk-off sentiment. The US 10-year treasury yield, mostly known as global risk barometer, slipped 2 basis points to 2.57% on Tuesday but remained unchanged at the start of Wednesday. Global equities also rose on the back of welcome earning reports from Twitter and Coca Cola while upbeat new home sales from the US was also a reason to help the USD remain firm. Looking forward, Japan’s leading economic index for February will be released at 05:00 AM and is expected to remain unchanged at 97.4. Other than Japan data, we have little details on the economic calendar and hence political events surrounding the US-China trade talks, Brexit and geopolitical plays concerning North Korea, Libya and Syria are likely to entertain traders.  It should also be noted that investors are still nervous ahead of Friday’s US GDP data and the US earnings season is still on.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisWhile 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 111.55 restricts the pair’s near-term declines, 112.15/20 is likely important resistance on the upside. Should prices rally beyond 112.20, 112.70, and 113.00 could flash on buyers’ radar whereas 50-day SMA level of 111.20 and 110.80 might entertain sellers during the quote’s declines under 111.55.

Early on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT will see 2019's first quarter inflation data dump for the Australian economy, and the headline CPI.

Australian CPI overviewEarly on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT will see 2019's first quarter inflation data dump for the Australian economy, and the headline q/q CPI reading is expected to come in at 0.2% versus previous quarter's reading of +0.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) trimmed-mean CPI is also expected to arrive at 0.4%, steady from the previous period's 0.4%, while the annualized CPI is expected to show 1.7%, a soft decline from the previous 1.8%. Ahead of the release, TD Securities said: We expect 1.8% y/y for headline CPI (mkt +1.5%) and +1.75% for core (mkt 1.65% y/y). Tobacco, Housing and Health are the main contributors, the main drag from Transport (i.e. fuel (-10% q/q)) and Communication (-0.3% q/q). Annual core inflation at 1¾% y/y leaves the RBA on the sidelines but a significant downside miss (of around -½%pt) has been a trigger for a cut before (May 2016). Also released is skilled vacancies for March. This measure was solid, but dipped in February.How could it affect the AUD/USD?According to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, weak inflation numbers could see the AUD/USD pair testing 0.7000 mark. She further adds: The 4 hours chart shows that the pair broke below all of its moving averages, while the 20 SMA already crossed below the 100 SMA,   both some 40/50 pips above the current level. The Momentum indicator has pared its decline at its lowest in a month, while the RSI indicator maintains its downward strength, currently at 26, both supporting additional declines ahead, to be confirmed with a break below the 0.7050/60 price zone, where the pair has multiple intraday lows from last March. Support levels:  0.7055 0.7020 0.6980 Resistance levels: 0.7115 0.7140 0.7170    Key NotesAUD/USD Analysis: weak inflation could see the pair testing 0.7000 AUD/USD remains close to 0.7100 support-line ahead of Australia inflation dataAbout the Australian CPIThe Consumer Price Index released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of AUD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

AUD/JPY struggles around the two-week low of 79.30 during early Wednesday ahead of AU inflation data.

AUD/JPY struggles around the two-week low of 79.30 during early Wednesday. Failure to cross 80.65/70 horizontal-area including lows marked during December 10 and 12 of 2018 seems gradually dragged the pair downward off-late. However, the presence of multiple important supports can trigger the pair’s pullback moves. Presently, 50-day and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) confluence region around 79.15 – 79.05 could challenge sellers, a break of which highlights the importance of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of December – January downturn near 78.90. In a case prices keep trading southward after 78.90, an upward sloping support-line from January 04 at 78.30 seems crucial as it holds the quote’s dip to 77.85 and 77.50. Meanwhile, 79.65, 80.00 and 80.40/45 might entertain short-term buyers during the pair’s pullback prior to questioning them with 80.65/70 resistance. Assuming the Bulls’ capacity to clear 80.70 on a daily closing basis, 81.50 and 82.20 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart.AUD/JPY daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Recent pullback of the GBP/USD pair to 1.2930 can’t speak in favor of the bulls as the Cable continues to remain under 1.2970/60 confluence.

Brexit pessimism contrasts the US positive clues while recalling nine-week low.Qualitative catalysts to keep dominating price sentiment amid lack of economic data.Recent pullback of the GBP/USD pair to 1.2930 can’t speak in favor of the bulls as the Cable continues to remain under 1.2970/60 confluence comprising 100-day and 200-day SMA during early Wednesday. British lawmakers’ comeback to the UK parliament after Easter recess dragged the pair down to the lowest levels in nine weeks. Traders initially concentrated on the news reports signaling another challenge to the UK PM Theresa May’s position and the start of cross-party Brexit talks.  Though, clues that the cross-party talks can witness another limbo fuelled pessimism among the GBP/USD traders. On the contrary, upbeat new home sales and rising equities turned global investors to the US Dollar (USD). Neither the UK nor the US has any important data scheduled for release on Wednesday. However, qualitative catalysts like Brexit, earnings report, political plays, etc. can keep offering fresh impulse to traders.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisHaving breached 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the quote is more likely to visit 1.2900 and 1.2880 rest-points with 1.2830 and 1.2800 expected to limit further declines. On the contrary, an upside clearance of 1.2970 can confront 1.3000 and 1.3030 resistances ahead of questioning six-week long descending trend-line at 1.3050.

Bloomberg came out with a story mentioning that Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest oil reserves, imported crude for the first time in last five years.

While supply crunch was already driving crude prices north, Bloomberg came out with a story mentioning that Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest oil reserves, imported crude for the first time in last five years. The news report said that the nation’s output fell below 1 million barrels a day to a 16-year low in March, amid rolling blackouts and U.S. sanctions.  It was further detailed in the story that as the power disruption shut oil fields, pipelines and ports, bringing oil infrastructure to a halt, state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA bought a cargo of crude from fellow OPEC member Nigeria, marking the first oil import since 2014.

On Tuesday, investors preferred the USD and oil among other avenues while equities also surged. However, the CAD became the biggest loser among G10 currencies.

Return of global traders fuelled greenback and oil.Canadian Dollar (CAD) remained nervous ahead of the BOC.Australia’s CPI and the BOC are in the spotlight from economic calendar whereas Brexit may keep dominating news headlines.With the presence of all the major global markets on the floor, Tuesday turned out as an active trading day. Investors preferred the US Dollar (USD) and the oil among other avenues while equities also surged. However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), generally known as the Loonie, became the biggest loser among G10 currencies. Risk-off, previous bias on upbeat fundamentals and a welcome run of the equities could be termed as catalysts that helped the greenback became market favorite. Brexit remained as a factor challenging market’s risk sentiment while geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea, Iran and Libya added volume into the pessimism. Crude oil rose to the highest since October 31 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed concern for Iran sanctions from the US. It should also be noted that an increase in API inventories got little attention from energy traders. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) failed to enjoy crude’s up-moves as Loonie traders remained cautious ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy meeting later today. Global equity traders cheered the return of major market-players as upbeat earnings from Twitter, Coca Cola and European health care stocks fuelled investor optimism. S&P 500 crossed the all-time high as it registered 0.9% gains to 2,934 whereas DJIA also secured more than half a percent gain to close around 26,656. Despite rising equities, risk-tone remained suppressed as the US 10-year treasury yield dropped nearly two basis points to 2.57% at the end of Tuesday. Looking forward, Australia’s first quarter inflation numbers will offer an active start to the Wednesday’s trading followed by German IFO numbers and BOC meeting. While Aussie CPI could become another reason for antipodeans to extend their recent slid, the expectedly soft outcome from German figures and the BOC might continue pushing investors towards the USD.Key Notes:AUD/USD remains close to 0.7100 support-line ahead of Australia inflation data Oil Technical Analysis: WTI bulls keep the market upbeat above $66.00 a barrel Wall Street soars to records on earnings reports US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY rolling into Asia near multi-month’s highs

The Guardian came out with a news report during early Wednesday that the opposition Labour party says Theresa May is unwilling to offer key Brexit concessions.

The UK PM Theresa May’s cross-party Brexit talks seem to witness little positive start as The Guardian came out with a news report during early Wednesday that the opposition Labour party says Theresa May is unwilling to offer key Brexit concessions. The report said that Labour has accused Theresa May of failing to offer any substantive changes to her Brexit deal in cross-party talks. While giving details, the news report added that the Labour sources said the government team again appeared unwilling to countenance changes to the political declaration, which sets out the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Instead, ministers offered alternative ways of giving reassurance about the issues Labour has raised, such as on environmental standards and workers’ rights, including through redrafting the withdrawal act implementation bill (WAB) and tweaking separate planned government bills.

AUD/USD is taking the rounds of 0.7100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday ahead of the key inflation data.

Bulls preferred greenback over other G10 currencies amid broad fundamental strength of the US economy.Aussie inflation data will be in the spotlight.AUD/USD is taking the rounds of 0.7100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The pair slipped beneath seven-week-old support to the lowest in 20 days on Tuesday but couldn’t offer a D1 close under the support-line and is still seesaws close to the rest-point. Coming up in the investor's radar will be first quarter inflation data from Australia. While the US Dollar (USD) was strongly in demand due to overall risk-off on the back of upbeat US new home sales and welcome equity performance, the Aussie was suppressed on expectations of a fewer monetary boost from its largest consumer, China. Global traders focused on the pre-Easter strength of the US fundamentals and fewer political tensions concerning the world’s largest economy while preferring the greenback over other G10 currencies. Macro risk barometer, the US 10-year treasury yield, was down 2 basis points to 2.57% by the end of Tuesday’s trading. Headline consumer price index (CPI) and RBA’s trimmed mean CPI for Q1 2019 will bear market attention during the Asian session. The CPI is likely being on a back-foot with expectations favoring +0.2% and 1.5% marks versus +0.5% and 1.8% respective priors on QoQ and yearly basis. Further, the trimmed mean CPI might remain unchanged at 0.4% on a quarterly basis but could slip to .7% from 1.8% on a YoY format.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisSustained break of 0.7100-0.7095 support-zone becomes pre-requisite for the Aussie to aim for 0.7050, 0.7030 and March month lows near 0.7000. Meanwhile, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.7115, followed by 100-day SMA level of 0.7135, can entertain short-term buyers during a pullback ahead of challenging them with 200-day SMA level near 0.7185/90.

The NZD/USD pair is still struggling around 0.6655, the least since January 03, at the start of the Asian session on Wednesday.

Lack of major positives drove global traders to concentrate more on the USD rise.Australian inflation data will be watched closely due to the absence of catalysts at home.Despite recovering nearly 30 pips from the sixteen week low, the NZD/USD pair is still struggling around 0.6655, the least since January 03, at the start of the Asian session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair dropped yesterday as the return of global traders brought across the board strength by the US Dollar (USD) as lack of major details and eco-political uncertainties surrounding rest of the globe pushed investors to the greenback. Adding to the USD rise could be better than expected new home sales data and a record high daily closing by leading equity indices like S&P500. There were few drivers at home amid prevalent speculations concerning a break in China’s monetary stimulus. Moving on, absence of major catalysts from New Zealand could continue disturbing the Kiwi traders but inflation data from Australia, the largest customer, might offer some direction to the moves. Australian is scheduled to publish first quarter (Q1) consumer price index (CPI) and trimmed mean CPI details for the year 2019. The CPI (QoQ) could soften to 0.2% from 0.5% whereas trimmed mean CPI, RBA’s preferred version of inflation, may remain unchanged on a quarterly basis to 0.4%.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisLate-2018 stops around 0.6630, followed by 0.6610 and January lows near 0.6585 are likely nearby supports, a break of which could flash 0.6570 and 0.6550 on the chart. On the upside, the pair needs to cross 0.6670 and 0.6710 resistances to regain its stand above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6730.

Oil daily chart WTI is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). Oil 4-hour chart Crude oil WTI bulls keep the buying pres

Oil daily chartWTI is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).
Oil 4-hour chart
Crude oil WTI bulls keep the buying pressure above $66.00 a barrel.  
Oil 30-minute chart
WTI is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the short-term.The level to beat for bulls is seen at 66.60 followed by 67.00 figure. A correction towards 65.60 or 64.20 cannot be ruled out.Additional key levels 
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