Upozornění na riziko: Kontrakty na vyrovnání rozdílu (CFD) jsou složitými nástroji, které se vyznačují vysokým rizikem rychlé ztráty z důvodu pákového obchodování. 90% retailových investorů utrpí ztrátu při obchodování CFD s tímto poskytovatelem. Měli byste dobře zvážit, zda rozumíte, jak fungují CFD, a zda si můžete dovolit akceptovat vysoké riziko ztráty peněz.
Upozornění na riziko: Kontrakty na vyrovnání rozdílu (CFD) jsou složitými nástroji, které se vyznačují vysokým rizikem rychlé ztráty z důvodu pákového obchodování. 90% retailových investorů utrpí ztrátu při obchodování CFD s tímto poskytovatelem. Měli byste dobře zvážit, zda rozumíte, jak fungují CFD, a zda si můžete dovolit akceptovat vysoké riziko ztráty peněz.

Chronologie zpráv trhu Forex

Čtvrtek, únor 21, 2019

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has continued to show signs of near term recovery following its recent reversal ahead o

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has continued to show signs of near term recovery following its recent reversal ahead of the 61.8% retracement at 1.2740.Key Quotes“It has overcome the 200 day ma at 1.3000 to alleviate downside pressure. Our attention has reverted to the 1.3217 recent high. The intraday Elliott wave counts are more positive.” “Below the 1.2739/61.8% retracement we would allow for losses to the 1.2669/62 15th January low and August low and possibly the 1.2609/78.6% retracement.”

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs OverviewAmongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 50.3 for February vs. 50.5 seen in the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen a tad firmer at 51.4 in the reported month versus 51.2 last. The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is seen arriving at 49.7 in February, unchanged from January’s final print while the index for the services sector is expected to tick slightly lower to 52.9 this month versus 53.0 seen in the previous month.How could they affect EUR/USD?Upbeat manufacturing PMI readings could help the EUR/USD pair retest 1.1372 (Feb 20 high). Above which the upside momentum could gain traction, with eyes set on 1.1400 (round number). A sustained break above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1450 (psychological levels). On the flip side, if the readings disappoint the consensus forecasts, the spot could head further south in a bid to test the 1.1300 demand zone, below which the next supports are placed at 1.1274 (Feb 19 low) and 1.1233 (YTD lows).Key NotesMarket themes of the Day: Eurozone PMIs set to stabilize after steep deceleration EUR/USD Forecast: Vulnerable below 1.1400 handle, flash Euro-zone PMIs eyed for some impetus EUR futures: pullbacks seem limitedAbout German/ Eurozone flash PMIsThe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

CME Group’s advanced figures for JPY futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second day in a row, this time by j

CME Group’s advanced figures for JPY futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second day in a row, this time by just 847 contracts on Wednesday from Tuesday’s final 184,744 contracts. Volume followed suit and dropped by around 35.1K contracts.USD/JPY still capped by 111.00USD/JPY is fading part of its recent gains amidst shrinking open interest and volume in the Japanese safe haven. That said, while the 111.00 handle continues to cap the upside, potential retracements should not be ruled out.

Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (1.4%) in January

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in January

Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (-0.8%) in January

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (-1%) in January

   •  The pair's back to back failed attempt to make it through the 0.6900 handle constituted towards the formation of a bearish double-top reversal c

   •  The pair's back to back failed attempt to make it through the 0.6900 handle constituted towards the formation of a bearish double-top reversal chart pattern on hourly charts.   •  A sustained weakness below 100-hour SMA was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders on Thursday and prompted some aggressive selling during the Asian session.   •  A follow-through slide below the 0.6820-10 horizontal support, also coinciding with 200-hour SMA, confirms a bearish breakdown and sets the stage for a further downfall.   •  However, technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart are already pointing to slightly oversold conditions and seemed to be the only factor helping limit deeper losses, at least for now.   •  Meanwhile, oscillators on 4-hourly chart/daily charts have just started gaining negative momentum and point to further depreciation towards 100-day SMA support near the 0.6735 region.NZD/USD 1-hourly chartNZD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.681
    Today Daily change %: -0.70%
    Today Daily Open: 0.6858
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6833
    Daily SMA50: 0.6788
    Daily SMA100: 0.674
    Daily SMA200: 0.6752
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.6887
    Previous Daily Low: 0.685
    Previous Weekly High: 0.6875
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.6719
    Previous Monthly High: 0.694
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.6516
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6864
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6873
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6843
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6828
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6806
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.688
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6902
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6917  

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk by around 6K contracts on Wednesday vs. Tuesday’s final 203,012 contracts, extending the choppy performanc

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk by around 6K contracts on Wednesday vs. Tuesday’s final 203,012 contracts, extending the choppy performance, according to preliminary figures from CME Group. In the same line, volume decreased by around 46.5K contracts following two consecutive builds.GBP/USD appears supported around 1.3000Cable met some extra downside pressure today, although further losses should meet strong contention in the 1.3000 region amidst declining open interest and volume.

Italian Deputy Prime Minister (PM) Salvini was on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that time is needed to implement Italy's government program. Sal

Italian Deputy Prime Minister (PM) Salvini was on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that time is needed to implement Italy's government program. Salvini added that he sees difficult economic times ahead still.

FX option expiries for Feb 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1300 1.2bn 1.1365 664m 1.1400

FX option expiries for Feb 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1300 1.2bn 1.1365 664m 1.1400 958m 1.1405 2.0bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3055 241m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  109.40 611m 109.75 650m 112.00 580m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7100 565m  - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6790 230m

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets, open interest shrunk by nearly 7.9K contracts on Wednesday vs. Tuesday’s final 539,405 contracts, reco

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets, open interest shrunk by nearly 7.9K contracts on Wednesday vs. Tuesday’s final 539,405 contracts, recording the second consecutive drop. Volume, too, dropped by almost 107K contracts, reverting the previous build.EUR/USD faces further consolidationEUR/USD is down for the second session in a row so far, although the recent drop in both volume and open interest should leave dips somewhat contained, thus favouring the continuation of the broad rangebound theme in the near/medium term.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that a near term rally is currently being seen for EUR/USD pair after it recovered from the 1.1216 Novem

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that a near term rally is currently being seen for EUR/USD pair after it recovered from the 1.1216 November low and this should preserve the range and leave the 1.1518 200 day ma back in the picture.Key Quotes“It has managed to regain 1.1342 (last weeks high) and this should alleviate immediate downside pressure. Below 1.1216 will target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186.” “Above the 200 day ma will re-target the 1.1623 mid-October high and slightly longer term we look for gains to 1.1702, the 55 week ma.” “Long term trend: A rise above the recent high at 1.1623 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1723 back on the cards.”

   •  Upbeat Aussie jobs data-led uptick turns out to be short-lived.    •  China moves to ban Australian coal imports at its Dalian port.    •  The n

   •  Upbeat Aussie jobs data-led uptick turns out to be short-lived.
   •  China moves to ban Australian coal imports at its Dalian port.
   •  The news prompts some aggressive selling around the Aussie.
The AUD/USD pair faded an early Asian session bullish spiked to over two-week tops, levels just above the 0.7200 handle, and tumbled to fresh weekly lows in the last hour. The pair initially got a minor boost from a stronger than expected Aussie jobs report but then came under some intense selling pressure after China moved to ban Australian coal imports at its Dalian port. The pair plunged around 120-pips in reaction to the news, taking along some short-term trading stops near the 0.7140-30 region and the 0.7100 round figure mark.  The latest development clearly revealed deteriorating diplomatic relations between the two countries and was seen as one of the key factors exerting some heavy downward pressure on the China-proxy Australian Dollar, with a subdued US Dollar price action doing little to lend any support or stall the sharp intraday slump.  Given that the pair hasn't been able to attract any buying interest clearly indicates that the bearish pressure might still be far from over and hence, a follow-through weakness, possibly towards challenging the key 0.70 psychological mark, now looks a distinct possibility. Moving ahead, today's US economic docket, highlighting the release of durable goods orders data, might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watchAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7097
    Today Daily change %: -0.92%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7163
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7154
    Daily SMA50: 0.7135
    Daily SMA100: 0.7161
    Daily SMA200: 0.7267
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7183
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7141
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7149
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7053
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7296
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.6684
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7157
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7167
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7142
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.712
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.71
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7184
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7204
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7226  

UOB analysts suggest that upward momentum for GBP/USD pair has picked up strongly but rally appears to be running ahead of itself. Key Quotes “Immed

UOB analysts suggest that upward momentum for GBP/USD pair has picked up strongly but rally appears to be running ahead of itself.Key Quotes“Immediate risk is on the upside even though GBP is unlikely able to maintain pace of its current up-move.” “The outlook for GBP is deemed as ‘positive’ but at this stage, we expect 1.3160 to offer solid resistance (key and major mid-term resistance is near last month’s top of 1.3220).” “On the downside, only a break of the 1.2960 ‘key support’ would indicate that a short-term top is in place.”

Forex today was dominated by the ongoing Yuan upsurge and sharp moves in the Aussie-dollar, as the US-China trade deal expectations heightened ahead o

Forex today was dominated by the ongoing Yuan upsurge and sharp moves in the Aussie-dollar, as the US-China trade deal expectations heightened ahead of the 2-day meeting between the top US diplomats and China’s Vice-Premier Liu in Washington, starting later today.  The Aussie dollar was a big mover, having risen to 0.7207 highs on stellar Australian jobs report before falling sharply to 0.7100 levels on Westpac’s RBA rate cut call and amid the latest headlines, citing that the Chinese Dalian port banned Australian coal imports. The Kiwi was also dragged lower sharply in tandem with its OZ neighbor, as the bears look to test the 0.68 handle. The Yuan eased-off 7-month tops against US counterpart, having sent the UD/CNY cross back above the 6.7000 level. The USD/JPY pair consolidated near 110.70, trapped in a tight range amid dismal Japanese manufacturing data and neutral FOMC minutes. Among the related markets, the Asian equity markets traded with moderate gains, as markets await the outcome of the US-China trade talks. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks kept its range near multi-month tops.  Gold prices on Comex extended the correction from YTD tops and hovered near 1340 levels.Main Topics in AsiaWTI slips toward $57 as API reports surprise increase in crude stocks Australia labor market stays solid in January, employment change blows past expectations The risk of a no-deal Brexit has risen - UK's Home Secretary Fed’s Daly: There's nothing on the radar that says US is slipping into recession Fed’s Daly: Need patience on rates until inflation rises faster China’s Foreign Min: China won't resort to Yuan depreciation for competitive purposes in trade Scottish Govt Chief Economist: No deal Brexit sees Scottish GDP fall up to 7% RBA to cut cash rate by 25bps in August and November this year - Westpac Offshore Yuan hits fresh 7-month high against the US dollar Sources: US and China are drafting multiple alternative MOUs on trade talks - Reuters Australia's 10-year government bond now yields 60 basis points less than its US counterpart USD/INR Technical Analysis: 100-day MA is again reversing the bounceKey Focus AheadToday’s EUR macro calendar is an eventful one, with a flurry of flash manufacturing and services PMI reports from across the Euro area economies dropping in from 0815 GMT. The German and Eurozone PMI readings will be closely watched for fresh hints on the Eurozone economic outlook. From the UK docket, we have the public sector net borrowings data due at 0930 GMT. Also, of note remains the ECB January monetary policy meeting accounts due at 1230 GMT. The NA session sees the US jobless claims, durable goods orders and Philly Fed manufacturing index, all releasing at once at 1330 GMT. At the same, the Canadian ADP jobs and wholesale sales data will be reported. From 1445 GMT, the traders will closely eye the US Markit manufacturing and services PMI reports and existing home sales data for fresh dollar trades. The focus will also remain on the developments surrounding the Brexit issue, the US-China trade talks and the EIA weekly crude stocks data for fresh trading impetus.   Besides, the speeches from the BOC Governor Poloz and RBA Governor Lowe will also remain in spotlight later in the American session. EUR/USD picks up a bid ahead of Eurozone PMIs and ECB minutes The bid tone around the common currency will likely strengthen further if the preliminary German and Eurozone PMI indices for February beat estimates, alleviating recession fears to some extent.  GBP/USD remains under pressure near 1.3050, Brexit, US data in spotlight For now, developments surrounding Brexit and upcoming monthly prints of the US durable goods orders and manufacturing indices will be closely observed for fresh impulse. Gold Technical Analysis: Pullback to ascending 5-day MA likely On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has diverged in favor of the bears. Therefore, the yellow metal could fall back to the ascending 5-day moving average (MA) support, currently lined up $1,335.  Eurozone Feb PMI to be among the most closely watched figures today - ING Analysts at the ING bank offer brief insights on what to expect from today’s Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI readings due at 0900 GMT. US Durable Goods Preview: Shutdown reporting vs the trend The US Census Bureau will issue its delayed Durable Goods report for December on Thursday February 21st at 8:30 am EST, 13:30 GMT.  New orders for durable goods are predicted to increase 1.7% in December following November’s 0.7% gain and the 0.8% rise in October.   

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading on a better mood in the second half of the week, currently navigating the 96.60 regio

The index moves higher and tests the 96.55/60 band.Yields of the US 10-year note climb to 2.67%.Philly Fed index next of relevance in the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading on a better mood in the second half of the week, currently navigating the 96.60 region ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.US Dollar Index now looks to dataAfter five consecutive daily pullbacks, the index is now regaining some shine following yesterday’s drop to fresh tops in the 96.30/25 band. The greenback has practically bypassed the publication of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, where the Committee stressed that prevailing uncertainty was mainly behind the recent shift to a more patient stance from the Fed. In the same line, members highlighted the balance sheet runoff is expected to end ‘later this year’. Moving forward, the Philly Fed index will be the salient event later today, seconded by Durable Goods Orders and Existing Home Sales.What to look for around USDThe FOMC minutes were not as dovish as expected. In fact, the Committee signalled the recent shift in the Fed’s stance was not associated to weakness in the economy but to rising uncertainty in the global markets. Despite the low inflation was back on the debate, the Fed did not rule out further hikes later in the year, although a move on rates remains highly data dependent. On another front, the US-Sino trade talks remain the almost exclusive driver for the markets’ mood in the near term. Furthermore, the deterioration in overseas fundamentals in combination with ‘softer’ stance in G10 central banks should keep occasional dips in the buck somewhat shallow.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is advancing 0.10% at 96.61 facing the immediate hurdle at 97.37 (2019 high Feb.15) seconded by 97.71 (2018 high Dec.14) and then 97.87 (monthly high Jun.20 2017). On the other hand, a breach of 96.29 (low Feb.20) will target 96.22 (38.2% Fibo of the September-December up move) en route to 95.58 (200-day SMA).

Analysts at TD Securities note that the last night’s FOMC meeting Minutes revealed uncertainty was the key factor in the Fed's dovish shift, rather th

Analysts at TD Securities note that the last night’s FOMC meeting Minutes revealed uncertainty was the key factor in the Fed's dovish shift, rather than a materially weaker outlook.Key Quotes“Low inflation was bumped up in the list of worries and sparked a debate about additional hikes.” “Conversely, the balance sheet discussion was more dovish for markets. "Almost all" participants in January thought the Fed should, "before too long," announce a plan to stop runoff "later this year." Our base case has been for a June end to runoff, given the stated desire to maintain a buffer on excess reserves.” “Both linear and nonlinear rates market reacted tamely as, relative to market expectations, the minutes were modestly less dovish on the rate front but more dovish on the balance sheet front.” “The mostly dovish signal on the balance sheet should keep the USD on the back foot. It lends further support to global reach-for-yield and should also reinforce topside resistance in the DXY. Fed speak has mostly telegraphed this shift, leading to some modest retracement in the FX market on the release, but nothing here should arrest the recent pullback in the buck.”

Research team at Rabobank points out that today its release of final Markit PMI surveys starting in Europe, but the big question is that whether we wi

Research team at Rabobank points out that today its release of final Markit PMI surveys starting in Europe, but the big question is that whether we will get a downside surprise, or does this point to stabilisation at a low level for the rest of Q1?Key Quotes“France is seen 51.0 for manufacturing and 48.5 for les services, making 48.9 overall, up from 48.2 in January; Germany is seem at 49.8 for manufacturing and 52.9 for der Dienstleistungssektor, making 52.0 overall vs. 52.1; and for Europe as a whole 50.3 for manufacturing, 51.3 for the parts you aren’t sure how much of a tip to leave for, and 51.1 overall vs. 51.0 last month.”

Reuters quoted some sources as saying that the PBOC is said to be likely to make further RRR cuts to spur credit growth. Key Headlines: Benchmark in

Reuters quoted some sources as saying that the PBOC is said to be likely to make further RRR cuts to spur credit growth.Key Headlines:Benchmark interest rate cut not imminent despite cooling inflation, stronger Yuan. Benchmark interest rate cut remains a last resort if growth slows sharply. A trade deal with the US would also reduce the chance of the said cut.

Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the Eurozone, flash PMIs for February are released, and they are expecting declines in both the French Ser

Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the Eurozone, flash PMIs for February are released, and they are expecting declines in both the French Services PMI and the German Manufacturing PMI.Key Quotes“In France, we forecast a decline in the Services PMI to 47.5 (mkt: 48.5). In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI is likely to echo Tuesday's ZEW survey, with another decline in February to 49.4 (mkt: 49.8).” “ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet speaks at 8am and 1:30pm GMT, and ECB Minutes from their recent meeting are released around lunchtime GMT. They're likely to include a deeper dive into the Governing Council's decision to pivot the balance of risks to the downside, and might offer further thoughts on a possible TLTRO extension.”

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that China's Dalian port bans Australia coal imports. AUD/USD stalled its minor recovery attempts

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that China's Dalian port bans Australia coal imports. AUD/USD stalled its minor recovery attempts near 0.7170 levels and dropped sharply to test the 0.7100 levels on the above headlines.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7101
    Today Daily change: -62 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.87%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7163
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7154
    Daily SMA50: 0.7135
    Daily SMA100: 0.7161
    Daily SMA200: 0.7267
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7183
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7141
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7149
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7053
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7296
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.6684
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7157
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7167
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7142
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.712
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.71
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7184
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7204
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7226

USD/JPY 4-Hour chart USD/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 110.74     Today Daily change: -0.10 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.09%     Today

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trade near 110.80 against the USD during early Thursday.The pair moves have been challenged by the short-term ascending triangle present between 110.95 resistance and 110.50 support.Should the pair rallies beyond 110.95 resistance-line connecting present week high to the late February 14 lows, 111.15 and 111.45-50 could quickly appear on the chart.In a case prices rally beyond 111.50, 112.10 and 112.60 might please the buyers ahead of challenging them with 113.10 and 113.70 resistances.On the contrary, a downside break of 110.50 highlights the importance of 110.00 whereas 109.50 could entertain sellers then after.However, an upward sloping support-line joining January 10 and 31 low, at 109.10, may limit the pair’s declines past-109.50.Given the bears’ rule trade sentiment under 109.10, 108.50 and 107.70 could flash on their radar to target.USD/JPY 4-Hour chartAdditional important levels:Overview:
    Today Last Price: 110.74
    Today Daily change: 10 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.09%
    Today Daily Open: 110.84
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.98
    Daily SMA50: 110.01
    Daily SMA100: 111.51
    Daily SMA200: 111.31
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 110.96
    Previous Daily Low: 110.54
    Previous Weekly High: 111.13
    Previous Weekly Low: 109.7
    Previous Monthly High: 110
    Previous Monthly Low: 104.75
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 110.79
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 110.7
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 110.6
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 110.36
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 110.18
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 111.02
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 111.2
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 111.44  

ING Bank’s analysts’ note that the Eurozone’s consumer confidence has perked up in Jan & Feb, after the declines in 2018. Key Quotes “The February i

ING Bank’s analysts’ note that the Eurozone’s consumer confidence has perked up in Jan & Feb, after the declines in 2018.Key Quotes“The February increase of 0.5 points to -7.4 justifies some cautious optimism about the state of Eurozone economic slump. Expect March to be a nail-biting month as deadlines approach.”

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M): 3.6% (January)

GBP/JPY has chared a double top, a bearish reversal pattern, on the 4-hour chart with the neckline support at 144.12. Interestingly, support of the tr

GBP/JPY has chared a double top, a bearish reversal pattern, on the 4-hour chart with the neckline support at 144.12. Interestingly, support of the trendline sloping upwards from the Feb. 15 and Feb. 18 lows is also located at 144.12, which makes it a level to beat for the bears,  The breakdown, if confirmed, could yield a drop to 143.22 (target as per the measured move method).  That said, the overall bullish outlook, as indicated by the flag breakout on the daily chart, will remain valid as long as the pair is trading above Tuesday's low of 142.48. 4-hour chartDaily chartTrend: intraday bearish below 144.12  

Kjetil Olsen, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that as per the market expectations, the US Fed will end QT in the second half of 2019 as this was t

Kjetil Olsen, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that as per the market expectations, the US Fed will end QT in the second half of 2019 as this was the clear message from the minutes of the January meeting.Key Quotes“It has already improved market conditions and we keep the forecast of one more hike before the Fed is done.” “The big U-turn FOMC meeting in January and Powell’s press conference after the meeting gave way to a dovish repricing of Fed, which at least partly lies behind the current market rally. Consensus has moved towards a flat funds rate for 2019 and a higher probability for a cut than a hike, and an October stop to QT.”

The GBP/USD pair trades little changed to 1.3050 while heading towards European sessions on Thursday. The pair declined on Wednesday as resignations b

GBP/USD struggles around 1.3050 ahead of European open on Thursday.The pair recently drifted lower on negative news for the Brexit and welcome FOMC minutes.Additional progress on Brexit and monthly data from the US will direct near-term market movement.The GBP/USD pair trades little changed to 1.3050 while heading towards European sessions on Thursday. The pair declined on Wednesday as resignations by the UK PM Theresa May’s party members and upbeat FOMC minutes weigh on the sentiments. For now, developments surrounding Brexit and upcoming monthly prints of the US durable goods orders and manufacturing indices will be closely observed for fresh impulse. In spite of PM May’s ability to make sure that the EU Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker doesn’t communicate anything negative for Brexit, the GBP/USD couldn’t extend its earlier gains to Wednesday. There seems many reasons for the same but resignations of three Tory members and FOMC minutes can take the first seat. Three pro-EU lawmakers quit the PM May’s Conservative party on Wednesday as they were unhappy with the government’s “disastrous handling of Brexit”. This renewed concern that PM May will have to struggle big time at the parliament even if she manages to get a good Brexit deal from the EU. On the other hand, minutes of the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that some among the committee favored rate-hikes during 2019 and an end of balance sheet normalization while leaving the monetary policy unchanged at that meeting. With the minutes reigniting rate-hike concerns, the USD registered across the board gains. Looking forward, Theresa May is on her last ditched efforts to please EU members over the Brexit proposal before she puts her progress report in front of parliament on February 26. Out of all the issues, an insurance policy to limit extensive checks on the Irish border becomes a big headache for the UK and the EU leaders off-late. It should also be noted that there are no big releases/events scheduled to release from the UK. For the US, monthly releases of December month durable goods orders and February month Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, coupled with Markit composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI), could entertain the USD traders. The durable goods orders may increase with +1.7% against December month figure of +0.7% whereas Markit composite PMI could strengthen to 55.1 from 54.4 registered in January. However, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is likely weakening to 14 from 17 earlier. With the Brexit signaling negative signs for the GBP and market expects upbeat numbers from the US, the GBP/USD pair may witness further downside. Additionally, developments at the US-China trade talks during the Chinese Vice Premier’s two-day visit can also provide intermediate moves to the pair.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisFailure to surpass 1.3110 seems to drag the GBP/USD pair to 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.3005, a break of which may take a rest of February 13 high near 1.2960 ahead of visiting the 1.2930 support. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 1.3110 enables the pair to confront five-month-old descending resistance-line, at 1.3200.

China's yuan jumped to seven-month highs soon before press time, extending its two-day winning streak against the greenback.  The offshore exchange r

China's yuan jumped to seven-month highs soon before press time, extending its two-day winning streak against the greenback.  The offshore exchange rate, which is less controlled by Beijing, rose to 6.6874 per US dollar – the highest level since July 17 – invalidating the bullish RSI divergence seen in USD/CNH's hourly chart earlier today.  With the drop to 6.6874, the USD/CNH pair has retraced more than 38.2 percent of the rally from 6.2353 to 6.98. The next key support is lined up at 6.6805 (50-week MA). 

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting Bank Indonesia to hold the 7 day reverse repo rate steady at 6.00% today. Key Quotes “Although the IDR has s

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting Bank Indonesia to hold the 7 day reverse repo rate steady at 6.00% today.Key Quotes“Although the IDR has strengthened sharply and inflation has continued to move lower, BI maintains a hawkish stance even as they consider interest rates near their peak.” “We think there is more downside potential for CPI over H1 19, but BI remains cognisant of the risks from a widening current account deficit and likely prefers to maintain higher rates to combat such risks. In this respect, “stability” is BI’s mantra on monetary policy.”

Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, suggests that the analysis team at Westpac are now expecting that the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cas

Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, suggests that the analysis team at Westpac are now expecting that the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate by 25bps in both August and November this year.Key Quotes“We have revised down our GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% to 2.2%. With the slower growth profile we now expect to see the unemployment rate lift to 5.5% by late 2019. That makes a strong case for official rate cuts to cushion the downturn and, in turn, meet the RBA’s medium term objectives.”

According to Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 5.0% in January, masking

According to Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 5.0% in January, masking otherwise solid fundamentals as  employment printed +39.1k (TD +20k, mkt +15k) via a rebound in full-time (+65.4k).Key Quotes“The participation rate edged back to 65.7%. The RBA expects the unemployment rate to be 5% this year, so today's report is as expected.” “The RBA also focuses on underemployment, and there was good news there as well. Underemployment and underutilisation rates/ratios have been edging lower (not in a straight line) for the last two years. This bodes well for stronger wage growth in due course (second chart).” “The AUD has traded $US0.70-73 for some time and today's moves are consistent with that range. OIS is fully priced for a rate cut by year end, and will remain so while many analysts look for cuts.” “In contrast, we expect the cash rate to remain on hold at 1.5% through to 2020 as we do not expect the ongoing orderly house price correction to derail economic growth and trigger higher unemployment to the extent that cuts are needed in the coming months.”

According to the latest Reuters poll, a small but growing contingent of economists believes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will ease its ultra-loose mon

According to the latest Reuters poll, a small but growing contingent of economists believes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will ease its ultra-loose monetary policy further amid mounting risks to the Japanese economic growth and inflation outlook. The latest Reuters poll was taken Feb 7-20.Key Findings:“Most economists polled by Reuters — 29 of 38 — still expect the BOJ’s next step would be to scale back its massive stimulus program. But nine analysts — up from five in last month’s poll — said the central bank would instead boost stimulus with steps such as buying even more assets to flood the financial system with cash and tweaking the wording in forward guidance. Nearly all economists polled — 33 of 36 — said they disagreed with the BOJ’s insistence that inflation was maintaining momentum toward reaching 2 percent. Many economists who forecast the central bank will scale back stimulus said that will happen sometime in 2020 or later. The median in the poll projected the nationwide core consumer price index, which includes oil products but not fresh food costs, would rise 0.8 percent in both fiscal 2019, which starts in April, and fiscal 2020. Economists projected Japan’s economy will contract 2.5 percent in the October-December quarter due to the sales tax hike but eke out 0.7 percent growth in all of fiscal 2019. For the following fiscal year, growth is expected to slow to 0.5 percent.”

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1350, representing a 0.14 percent gain on the day.  The common currency had jumped to a high of 1.1371 in the NY se

EUR/USD faded the spike to 1.1371 yesterday as Fed minutes were slightly more hawkish-than-expected. The pair may pick up a strong bid in Europe if the Eurozone PMI's beat expectations alleviating recession fears. ECB minutes will likely sound dovish, but the delay in the rate hike has been priced in. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1350, representing a 0.14 percent gain on the day.  The common currency had jumped to a high of 1.1371 in the NY session yesterday. The move to two-week highs, however, was short-lived, as the Fed minutes carried a slightly hawkish tilt of several members still believing that the most likely path in rates was still higher if the economy evolves as expected.  As a result, EUR/USD erased gains and closed with marginal losses at 1.1336. The pair, however, picked up a bid in Asia, possibly tracking the rise in the offshore Chinese yuan to 7-month highs.  The bid tone around the common currency will likely strengthen further if the preliminary German and Eurozone PMI indices for February beat estimates, alleviating recession fears to some extent.  The minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) January meeting, also scheduled for release today, are likely to sound dovish, but will likely have a little negative impact on the EUR pairs. That the ECB will not be able to hike rates any time soon has been penciled in by markets - EUR/USD fell from 1.1514 to 1.1234 in two-weeks to Feb. 15.  Add to that, the bullish crossover between the 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) and the path of least resistance appears to be on the higher side. Technical Levels

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) below expectations (-0.2%) in December: Actual (-0.4%)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is little weak against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6850 during early Thursday. The NZD/USD pair stretched its post-FOMC minu

NZD/USD trades near 0.6850 before the London market opens on Thursday.he pair carried post-FOMC minutes losses forward.Developments on the trade negotiations between the US and China will be observed for fresh impulse.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is little weak against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6850 during early Thursday. The NZD/USD pair stretched its post-FOMC minutes losses overnight as antipodeans await clues from the two-day Washington visit by China’s Vice Premier Liu He. With the minutes of the January 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting stating several policymakers seeing rate-hikes in 2019 and a plan to stop reducing the Fed’s asset holdings later this year, the US Dollar registered across the board gains during late-Wednesday. The greenback managed to extend gains overnight at the start of Thursday against the NZD as lack of big directives from New Zealand continued emphasizing on the recent upbeat minute report from the US central bank. Looking forward, there are no big releases scheduled from New Zealand during Thursday, which in-turn shifts market to focus on the US-China trade talks as China is one of the largest NZ customers. Having witnessed no major results of the US-Sino negotiations off-late, traders will closely observe details of how the Chinese President’s close aide manages to come closer to a trade deal with the US. It should also be noted that the February 21-22 meeting by Liu He is less likely to run smoothly as the US diplomats are likely to put challenging issue forward. Among them, property rights, economic restructure and Yuan manipulation are some grabbing market criticism and are a tough nut to crack. Should there be any positives directing towards a successful trade accord between the world’s two largest economies, the NZD might benefit from the same.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisImmediate support-line connecting February 14 and 19 lows, at 0.6820, followed by 0.6800, can limit the NZD/USD pair’s near-term declines, a break of which may recall 0.6770 on the chart. Meanwhile, 0.6880 and 0.6890 seem nearby resistances to conquer for buyers ahead of looking at the 0.6905 and 0.6935 numbers to the north.

Analysts at the ING bank offer brief insights on what to expect from today’s Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI readings due at 0900 GMT.

Analysts at the ING bank offer brief insights on what to expect from today’s Eurozone flash manufacturing and services PMI readings due at 0900 GMT.Key Quotes:“The Eurozone PMI will be among the most closely watched figures. The r-word has been used out loud already as the January PMI dropped to just 51 (anything below 50 signals contracting activity). The February PMI will give a sense of if we're going to see a turnaround in growth figures, or whether we will move even closer to stagnation halfway through the first quarter.”

USD/INR is currently trading at 71.00, having failed to take out the 100-day moving average (MA)  in the previous two days.  Daily chart As seen a

USD/INR is currently trading at 71.00, having failed to take out the 100-day moving average (MA)  in the previous two days. Daily chartAs seen above, the rally from Jan. 7 low of 69.185 ran out of steam at 100-day MA earlier this month and the repeated bull failure there was followed by a drop to 70.10 on Feb. 13.  The average is again proving a tough nut to crack. As noted earlier, the pair failed to close above the 100-day MA in the previous two days and is now feeling the pull of gravity.  The support at 70.50 could again come into play if the rejection at the 100-day MA fuels a break below the immediate support near 70.80.  A daily close above the 100-day MA is needed to strengthen the bull grip. Trend: Bullish above 100-day MA  

AUD/JPY daily chart AUD/JPY trades near 79.30 during early Thursday. The pair witnessed pullback from the 79.80-90 region, comprising 100-day simp

AUD/JPY daily chartAUD/JPY trades near 79.30 during early Thursday.The pair witnessed pullback from the 79.80-90 region, comprising 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and early month high.Buyers need to conquer the 79.90 in order to aim for 200-day SMA level of 80.90 and then 82.20 numbers.In case sellers manage to rule, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of December to January decline, at 78.90 can become their immediate favorite.Though, an upward sloping trend-line at 78.10, may challenge the downturn, if not then 50% Fibonacci around 77.50 may mark its presence on the chart.AUD/JPY 4-Hour chartOn H4 chart, the 80.70 can offer an intermediate halt to the pair’s rise past-79.90 whereas 81.20 and 81.65 can please the bulls ahead of 82.20.Alternatively, adjacent support-line at 78.55 may offer nearby rest to the pair between 78.90 and 78.10 while 77.50 and 77.00 could flash on sellers radar afterward.AUD/JPY hourly chartAn ascending trend-line connecting high marked on February 14 and 20, at 79.70, may become immediate resistance for the pair ahead of highlighting the 79.80-90 area.Meanwhile 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its decline during the first week of the month, at 78.90 and an upward sloping trend-line, at 78.55, might act as adjacent supports for the pair.

Gold is currently trading at $1,340, having clocked a high of $1,346.85 yesterday.  On the daily chart, the safe haven yellow metal carved out a doji

Gold is currently trading at $1,340, having clocked a high of $1,346.85 yesterday.  On the daily chart, the safe haven yellow metal carved out a doji candle yesterday, signaling indecision/bullish exhaustion. Further, on the 4-hour chart, the RSI has diverged in favor of the bears.  Therefore, the yellow metal could fall back to the ascending 5-day moving average (MA) support, currently lined up $1,335. Daily chart4-hour chartTrend: Minor correction likely  

Westpac's rate cut call seems to have put a bid under Australian government bonds, leading to a drop in yields.  As of writing, the 10-year governmen

Westpac's rate cut call seems to have put a bid under Australian government bonds, leading to a drop in yields.  As of writing, the 10-year government bond yield is trading at 2.06 percent - down 60 basis points from the US 10-year treasury yield, which is currently seen at 2.66 percent.  The 10-year AU-US yield spread has dropped by 25 basis points this month and could slide even further in the near future, courtesy of the rising odds of an early RBA rate cut.  Westpac now expects the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points in August and November. 

Reuters quotes sources familiar with the US-China trade talks, as saying that the US and China are drafting up six memorandums of understanding (MOU)

Reuters quotes sources familiar with the US-China trade talks, as saying that the US and China are drafting up six memorandums of understanding (MOU) on key structural issues concerning the trade dispute. The sources said the draft memos cover intellectual property, services, tech transfer, agriculture, currency, non-tariff barriers  The negotiators are also looking at 10-item list of shorter-term measures to address trade imbalance, the sources added.

The bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI) seen in USD/CNH's hourly chart indicates scope for a corrective bounce to 6.7374 (Jan. 11

The bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI) seen in USD/CNH's hourly chart indicates scope for a corrective bounce to 6.7374 (Jan. 11 low). Hourly chartAs seen above, the pair is chipping away at the falling trendline. A break higher would expose 6.7374 (Jan. 11 low) and the downward sloping 50-hour moving average (MA) currently located at 6.7415.  A move below 6.7074 would invalidate the bullish RSI divergence. Trend: corrective bounce  

More comments are crossing the wires from the new San Francisco President Mary Daly, courtesy Reuters, now speaking about the Fed’s interest rates out

More comments are crossing the wires from the new San Francisco President Mary Daly, courtesy Reuters, now speaking about the Fed’s interest rates outlook. “We are very near neutral level of rates. Fed does not balance sheet policy to be working at cross purposes with rate policy. US economy is restraining itself and faces headwinds, so need patience on rates. Want patience on rates until she sees inflation rising faster.”

USD/JPY is currently trading in the red at 110.73, having hit a high and low of 110.86 and 110.59 earlier today.  Japan's manufacturing activity cont

Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in February for the first time since 2016. The pair has barely moved in response to dismal data. The bullish 5-day moving average (MA) capped downside earlier today. USD/JPY is currently trading in the red at 110.73, having hit a high and low of 110.86 and 110.59 earlier today.  Japan's manufacturing activity contracted in February for the first time since 2016, courtesy of shrinking domestic and export orders, the Flash Markit/Nikkei Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released earlier today showed.  The index fell to 48.5 from a final 50.3 in January. The reading below 50 indicates contraction.  That said, the contraction in the manufacturing activity only validates BOJ's view that policy needs to stay accommodative. So far, however, the dismal data has not had any impact on JPY pairs, possibly because treasury yields dropped in the overnight trade after the Fed minutes revealed there was a widespread agreement for the central bank to end the balance sheet normalization program by the end of the year.  Looking ahead, the yen may come under pressure if the equities pick up a strong bid. As of writing, the S&P 500 futures are flatlined, while the major Asian indices are trading mixed.  Technical speaking, the immediate outlook remains bullish, as both the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending north. More importantly, the pair found support near the 5-day MA of 110.65. Technical Levels

The Westpac analysts have made revisions to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate forecasts for the first time in couple of years, now calling

The Westpac analysts have made revisions to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate forecasts for the first time in couple of years, now calling for a 25 bps rate cut each in August and November this year from the rates on hold stance.Key Quotes:“WPAC have revised GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% to 2.2%. With slower growth profile now expect to see the unemployment rate to 5.5% by late 2019. That makes a strong case for official rate cuts to cushion the downturn and, in turn, meet the RBA's medium term objectives.”

Scottish Government’s Chief Economist was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, saying the a no deal Brexit outcome could see the Scottish GDP fall

Scottish Government’s Chief Economist was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, saying the a no deal Brexit outcome could see the Scottish GDP fall up to 7%. No further details were provided on the same.

AUD/CAD trimmed its 50 pip gains with an intra-day low of 0.9417 on early Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) declined across the board on Westpac’s

AUD/CAD dropped to 0.9420 during early Asian sessions on Thursday.The pair initially rallied on upbeat Australian employment report but trimmed all the gains on news that Westpac cut its interest-rate forecast for the RBA.AUD/CAD trimmed its 50 pip gains with an intra-day low of 0.9417 on early Thursday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) declined across the board on Westpac’s rate-cut expectations from the RBA after it surged earlier on the January month employment figures. Looking forward, the re-start of a crucial phase of talks between the world’s two largest economies in Washington will be closely observed for antipodean traders. As per the jobs report, the employment change increased by 39,100 against the market consensus of 15,000 while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0%. Full-time jobs rose 65,400 after declining -3,000 during December last-year whereas part-time employment declined 26,300 versus 24,600 rise seen in the previous month. Additionally, participation rate beat the forecast and previous release of 65.6% with 65.7% figure. In spite of upbeat employment report likely making the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on March 05 a welcome event for Aussie traders, Westpac immediately updated their rate forecasts expecting a 0.25% cut in both August and November this year. The latest report by the Westpac says, Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank to cut the cash rate by 25bps in both August and November this year. We have revised down our GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 from 2.6% to 2.2%. With the slower growth profile we now expect to see the unemployment rate lift to 5.5% by late 2019. That makes a strong case for official rate cuts to cushion. Having witnessed a seesaw move around the employment details, investors may now shift their attention back to on-going trade discussion between the US and China. After the US delegates returned from Beijing, China’s Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to visit Washington for a two-day negotiation period. So far, there hasn’t been any concrete detail of the progress in negotiations while the two sides are still struggling to solve major issues like intellectual property rights and economic restructuring demands from the US. Additionally, the US recently added one more point to its Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that will be put forward for discussion. The phase mentions the requirement of limiting Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar. Given the fact that China is the largest consumer to Australia, any negatives on the trade deal can drag the Aussie further towards the south. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, is scheduled to speak about monetary policy at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal at 17:35 GMT. The BoC has been dovish off-late and any confirmation to the bias may add weakness into the Canadian Dollar (CAD).AUD/CAD Technical AnalysisAUD/CAD can now avail 0.9415 and 0.9380 as supports if managed to continue being under 0.9485. Should the pair rallies beyond 0.9485, 0.9530 and 0.9580 may please the bulls.

The Aussie dollar is being offered across the board, possibly due to aanRBA rate cut call by Westpac - one of Australia's leading banks.  There is a

AUD/USD has dropped from 0.7207 to 0.7142 in the last 60 minutes, possibly on Westpac's RBA rate cut call. Westpac now expects the central bank to cut rates in August and November. The Aussie dollar is being offered across the board, possibly due to aanRBA rate cut call by Westpac - one of Australia's leading banks.  There is a strong case for interest rate cuts, as the economic slowdown could push up the jobless rate to 5.5 percent by the end of 2019, according to Westpac. The lender, therefore, expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates by 25 basis points in August and November this year.  With the rate cut forecast, Westpac has ditched its long-held view that the central bank would remain on hold for a long time.   AUD/USD, which had jumped to highs above 0.72 on the back of stellar January jobs report, is now reporting losses at 0.7150. The currency could slide further on rising odds of an early RBA rate cut.Technical Levels 

The Chinese media came out with a story, citing the recent comments from a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry following the reports that the US is

The Chinese media came out with a story, citing the recent comments from a spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry following the reports that the US is pressing China to keep the Yuan stable as part of a trade agreement. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman noted that the country will not use the Yuan’s exchange rate as a bargaining chip to resolve trade disputes with the US.Additional Comments:China won't resort to currency depreciation for competitive purposes in trade. Hopes the US can respect market rules and not politicize currency issues.

Reuters reports the latest comments delivered by the new President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly, as he responds in a Q

Reuters reports the latest comments delivered by the new President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly, as he responds in a Q&A at a Stanford University event.Main Points:Sees more headwinds, including slower global growth, uncertainty, tighter financial conditions. There's nothing on the radar that says US is slipping into recession.

The risk of a no-deal Brexit has risen and that the option could not be taken off the table, Home Secretary Sajid Javid said on Wednesday, according t

The risk of a no-deal Brexit has risen and that the option could not be taken off the table, Home Secretary Sajid Javid said on Wednesday, according to Reuters.  "It is not possible" to rule out a no-deal Brexit, Javid told ITV in an interview.
 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised Yuan's fixing by 338 pips to 6.7220 per USD vs the previous day's fix of 6.7558. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised Yuan's fixing by 338 pips to 6.7220 per USD vs the previous day's fix of 6.7558. 

Australia government bond yields jumped following the release of a blockbuster January employment report.  The yield on the 10-year government bond y

Australia government bonds dropped, pushing yields higher after the Australian Bureau of Statistics data published a stellar jobs report. Employment rose by 39,100 in January, beating the estimated increase of 15,000 over the month by a big margin. The jobless rate remained unchanged at 5 percent. Australia government bond yields jumped following the release of a blockbuster January employment report.  The yield on the 10-year government bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 2.13 percent and was last seen trading at 2.115 percent.  Yields at the short-end of the curve are also flashing green. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, is seen at 1.77 percent, up three basis points on the day.  Meanwhile, the spread between the Aussie and US 10-year government bond yields has improved to -0.522 basis points from -0.56 basis points seen before the release of the jobs data. 

The bid tone around the AUD strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY cross higher to 79.82 - a level last seen on Feb. 5 - after the numbers published by the

A big beat on the Aussie January employment figure is boding well for the AUD. AUD/JPY jumped to two-week highs on upbeat data and could rise to year-to-date highs above 79.84. The bid tone around the AUD strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY cross higher to 79.82 - a level last seen on Feb. 5 - after the numbers published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the labor market remained strong in January.  The economy added 39,100 jobs last month, beating the estimated increase of 15,000 jobs by a big margin. The full-time employment rose by a staggering 65,400, following a drop of 3,000 registered in December.  The part-time employment, however, fell by 26,300 in January, following a rise of 24,600 in the previous month. The jobless rate remained unchanged at 5 percent, as expected, and the labor force participation rate ticked higher to 65.7 percent.  All-in-all, the report confirms that jobs market remains the bright spot for the Australia economy and will likely comfort the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is counting on the sustained labor market strength to boost wage price inflation and consumption.  The pick-up in the AUD, therefore, is hardly surprising. At press time, AUD/JPY is trading at 79.72 and could print year-to-date highs above 79.84 if the equities remain bid. Technical Levels 

AUD/NZD has been treading on thin ice of late, technically speaking. The cross has withstood a series of downbeat economic data and dovish rhetoric bu

AUD/NZD bulls have been thrown a major life-line today on a very solid jobs data, significantly in the full-time jobs sector which has sent the Aussie flying towards the 1.05 handle vs the NZD. AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0480 from a low of 1.0435, having traded at 1.0488 and leaves the long term support line intact. AUD/NZD has been treading on thin ice of late, technically speaking. The cross has withstood a series of downbeat economic data and dovish rhetoric but on the Aussie jobs data, the mood will shurely shift in favour of a prolonged upside recovery.The data arrived as follows: Employment Change: +39.1 K vs the expected 15.0K, prior 21.6K - (Revised 16.9k) Unemployment Rate: 5.0% vs the expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%. Full-Time Employment Change: 65.4K which is a very strong result while the prior was -3K - (Revised  -9.5k) Part Time Employment Change: -26.3K while the prior was 24.6K - (Revised 26.4 k) Participation Rate: 65.7% vs the expected 65.6%, prior was 65.6%. Elsewhere, from events overnight, the FOMC minutes were revealed. Analysts at TD Securities summed them up as follows:  The FOMC Minutes revealed uncertainty was the key factor in the Fed's dovish shift, rather than a materially weaker outlook. However, low inflation was bumped up in the list of worries and sparked a debate about additional hikes. Conversely, the balance sheet discussion was more dovish for markets. "Almost all" participants in January thought the Fed should, "before too long," announce a plan to stop runoff "later this year." Our base case has been for a June end to runoff, given the stated desire to maintain a buffer on excess reserves. Both linear and nonlinear rates market reacted tamely as, relative to market expectations, the minutes were modestly less dovish on the rate front but more dovish on the balance sheet front. The mostly dovish signal on the balance sheet should keep the USD on the back foot. It lends further support to global reach-for-yield and should also reinforce topside resistance in the DXY. Fed speak has mostly telegraphed this shift, leading to some modest retracement in the FX market on the release, but nothing here should arrest the recent pullback in the buck. AUD/NZD levels AUD/NZD has so far managed to hold the key horizontal support line est. since June 2017, tested again 13th Feb 2019, despite a series of downbeat data and dovish rhetoric from the Aussie economy and the RBA. However, this data today will now leave that line in the sand in the rearview mirror and the cross can extend its correction towards an upside target that is located at the 38.2% fibo target in the 1.0560s. 
 
         

The Australian Dollar (AUD) increased nearly 50 pips to mark the intraday high of 0.7206 against the USD during initial Asian trading on Thursday. The

The AUD/USD pair crossed 0.7200 mark on positive employment details early on Thursday.The employment change beat 15.0K market consensus with a huge 39.1 figure while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% during January 2019.The Australian Dollar (AUD) increased nearly 50 pips to mark the intraday high of 0.7206 against the USD during initial Asian trading on Thursday. The pair took advantage of the employment change that beat the market consensus with a huge margin. Before the data, analysts at TD securities said,  January is seasonally a weak month for employment as seasonal jobs are no longer required, but this is adequately captured by the seasonal adjustment process. We look for +20k jobs for January, and with an unchanged participation rate of 65.6% leaves the unemployment rate at 5.0% (mkt +15k and +5.0%). An average monthly addition of +20k/m leaves the unemployment rate steady at 5%, which is the RBA’s expectation. The Bank's downside risks will be exacerbated if the unemployment rate starts to creep towards 6% again. With the Aussie data checking recent doubts over the rate hike bias of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), investors may now move forward towards other catalysts to determine near-term moves. Among them, developments concerning the US and China trade talks will be in the front line as China’s Vice Premier Liu He will arrive in Washington for a two-day negotiation with the US diplomats. Recent news is signaling a tough road ahead for the US-Sino negotiators as the US is likely adding currency manipulation to its demand list. In addition to their previous proposals for property right security and China's economic restructure, the US leaders are likely to put forward their demand to cap the Chinese Yuan (CNY). Such a proposal was recently criticized by the ex-Fed Chair, Janet Yellen.Technical analysisSuccessful break of 0.7200 is required for the AUD/USD pair to aim for 0.7235 and the 0.7280 whereas 0.7310 may entertain bulls afterward. On the downside, 0.7155 and 0.7125 can act as immediate support before highlighting 0.7100 and 0.7080 as rest-points.

Australia’s jobs market remains a bright spot for the economy, figures published by the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released soon before pres

Australia’s jobs market remains a bright spot for the economy, figures published by the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released soon before press time showed.  Employment jumped by 39,100 in January, beating the estimated increase of 15,000 over the month, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at 5 percent.  Notably, full-time jobs surged by 65,400, following the decline of 3,000 jobs in December, while part-time employment following the jump of 24,600 jobs in December.  The upbeat data should comfort the policymakers who are counting on sustained labor market strength to boost wage price inflation and consumption. January Key points (Source: ABS)  Trned estimatesEmployed persons increased 24,900 to 12,747,700. Full-time employed persons increased 16,800 to 8,737,400 and part-time employed persons increased 8,100 to 4,010,300. Unemployed persons increased 1,800 to 680,100. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1%. Participation rate remained steady at 65.7%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 1.6 million hours to 1763.2 million hours.Sesaonally adjusted estimatesEmployed persons increased 39,100 to 12,751,800. Full-time employed persons increased 65,400 to 8,743,100 and part-time employed persons decreased 26,300 to 4,008,700. Unemployed persons increased 6,600 to 673,500. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%. Participation rate increased 0.1 pts to 65.7%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 6.6 million hours to 1766.4 million hours.Labor underutlizationThe monthly trend underemployment rate remained steady at 8.3%. The monthly underutilisation rate remained steady at 13.3%. The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate decreased 0.2 pts to 8.1%. The monthly underutilisation rate decreased 0.1 pts to 13.2%.

Australia Part-time employment: -26.3K (January) vs previous 24.6K

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI fell from previous 50.3 to 48.5 in February

Australia Fulltime employment up to 65.4K in January from previous -3K

Australia Participation Rate came in at 65.7%, above expectations (65.6%) in January

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. in line with expectations (5%) in January

Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at 39.1K, above forecasts (15K) in January

AUD/NZD Daily Chart  Within the daily bearish trend, AUD/NZD has so far managed to hold the key horizontal support line est. since June 2017, tes

AUD/NZD Daily Chart Within the daily bearish trend, AUD/NZD has so far managed to hold the key horizontal support line est. since June 2017, tested again 13th Feb 2019, despite a series of downbeat data and dovish rhetoric from the Aussie economy and the RBA.  Stochastic readings have moved out of bullish territory from oversold readings which leaves price vulnerable to the downside again.  Wide downside targets are located at 1.0192 as the early Jan flash crash lows.  Upside target is located at the 23.6% fibo target in the 1.0560s.                  

WTI trades around $57.30 during early Asian trading on Thursday. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate dropped to near $57.20 levels after the America

WTI clings to $57.30 at the start of Asian trading on Thursday.The Crude benchmark weakened recently on API stock data.The official EIA inventory release will be crucial for the energy traders going forward.WTI trades around $57.30 during early Asian trading on Thursday. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate dropped to near $57.20 levels after the American Petroleum Institute (API) released its weekly crude oil stock data. Next up in the oil traders’ radar will be the official reading of the US stock change from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), up for 16:00 GMT today. The weekly release of API crude oil stock surprised marked with an increase to 1.260M versus -0.998M drawdown registered last-week. The data renewed supply-glut fears amongst energy traders. Following a weak start to the day due to industry stock report, investors may now concentrate on the official inventory levels up for later today.  As per the Reuters report, “U.S. crude stockpiles were expected to have risen by 3.1 million barrels last week, the fifth consecutive weekly build. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the main U.S. oil storage hub, will grow largely because U.S. data shows refinery capacity utilization in the Midwest dropped to 84.2 percent from 92.9 percent the previous week, following a string of planned and unplanned outages.” In addition to stock data, the arrival of China’s Vice Premier Liu He to Washington in order to discuss future trade ties with the US diplomats will also be a key event for the crude. The reason being China is in the top-list of world’s largest crude consumers and its trade spat with the US has so far challenged the global growth. While EIA is likely to follow the API’s footsteps, WTI might not refrain from declining further. Though, any positive news from the US-China trade front can help the energy traders ignore supply-glut threats for the time being.WTI Technical AnalysisConsidering an immediate downward sloping trend-line and API data, $57.00 and $56.85 seem nearby supports for the WTI benchmark, a break of which can recall $56.50 & $56.30 on the chart. Alternatively, an upside clearance of $57.40 can propel the quote again towards $57.65 and then to $58.00 whereas $58.20 and $58.50 are likely following numbers that can please buyers.

Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks rose from previous ¥-102B to ¥-52.9B in February 15

Japan Foreign bond investment fell from previous ¥992.4B to ¥193.7B in February 15

Overview of the Australian jobs report The Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for releasing monthly jobs report during early Asian markets on Thur

Overview of the Australian jobs reportThe Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for releasing monthly jobs report during early Asian markets on Thursday. The January month employment change and unemployment rate details will be a key to watch in the 00:30 GMT update. Analysts at Westpact say: For the Jan data due 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, the median forecast is a familiar +15k. Westpac is in line with consensus given that such an outcome would be consistent with annual jobs growth of just over 2%. We see the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.0%, on the assumption that the participation rate holds at 65.6%. AUD is more likely to respond to a downside than an upside surprise.How could the data affect AUD/USD?Considering latest shift in the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) outlook and softer than expected wage price index, the additional downside in the employment change might validate the bears’ rate cut bias and provide damages to the Australian Dollar (AUD). However, a surprise improvement in the employment change or favorable print of the unemployment rate could escalate the Aussie recovery. On the technical front, AUD/USD follows short-term ascending trend-channel with 0.7185 acting as resistance and 0.7110 being the formation support. While an upside break of 0.7185 signals the pair’s rise to 0.7200 and 0.7230, pullback moves can avail 0.7135 as an intermediate halt before visiting 0.7110 and 0.7080 supports.Key notesAUD/USD: All eyes on commodities, FOMC minutes, Aussie jobs and critical levels in US stocks AUD/USD eases from highs to 0.7170 as USD rebounds on FOMC minutes AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Correcting from ascending trend-channel resistance, downside seems limitedAbout the Employment ChangeThe Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

EUR/AUD hourly chart EUR/AUD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.5831     Today Daily change: 0.0005 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.03%     Today

EUR/AUD trades little changed around 1.5825 during the initial hours of Asian trading on Thursday.January month Australian jobs report, to be released on 00:30 GMT, will become immediate focus of the pair traders.Nearly three-week-old descending trend-line portrays the pair’s gradual declines since early-month.However, horizontal-line connecting lows marked on Friday and Monday, followed by late highs of February 05, could offer immediate support to the pair around 1.5800 and then near 1.5785.In case prices refrain to respect 1.5785 support, 1.5740 and 1.5725 are likely following numbers to gain market attention.On the contrary, 1.5865 could restrict the pair’s immediate upside ahead of highlighting the 1.5885 trend-line resistance.Should the quote rallies past-1.5885 then 1.5920 and 1.5970 can offer intermediate halts during the upward trajectory to 1.6000 round-figure.EUR/AUD hourly chartEUR/AUD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.5831
    Today Daily change: 0.0005 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 1.5826
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.5892
    Daily SMA50: 1.5965
    Daily SMA100: 1.5924
    Daily SMA200: 1.5856
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.5919
    Previous Daily Low: 1.5815
    Previous Weekly High: 1.6
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.5803
    Previous Monthly High: 1.6914
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.5721
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.5855
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.5879
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.5788
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.5749
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.5684
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.5892
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.5957
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.5996  

Wall Street ended on a firm note on Wednesday despite the slight disappointment tin the FOMC minutes that failed to guide markets on just how dovish m

Dow Jones Industrial Average put on 63.12 points, or 0.2%, to end at 25,954.44. S&P 500 index climbed 4.94 points, or 0.2%, to 2,784.70. Nasdaq Composite put up just 2.30 points to 7,489.07.  Wall Street ended on a firm note on Wednesday despite the slight disappointment tin the FOMC minutes that failed to guide markets on just how dovish members are. The outcome was neutral, much in line with Mester's (hawk turning neutral) and Willliam's rhetoric from earlier in the week. Almost all participants wanted to stop reducing the balance sheet later this year which helped the indices along for positive closes. Key statements form FOCM minutes, (Source LiveSquawk):Participants noted maintaining current target range for fed funds rate ‘for a time’ posed few risks at this point. Staff gave options for ending balance sheet runoff in h2 this year. Almost all officials wanted to halt b/sheet runoff in 2019. Many officials unsure which rate moves could be needed in 2019. Policymakers agree it is ‘important’ to be flexible in balance sheet normalization. Policymakers agree it would be appropriate to adjust if necessary. Several participants saw further hikes appropriate in 2019 if economy evolved as expected. Patient posture allows time for ‘clearer picture’. - ‘few officials’ not concern over uncertainty not captured in dot plot; - seen strong household data recently; - officials note concerns over slowing growth, China; - concerns over trade, shutdown, fiscal policy; - seen some downside risks increase; - officials note volatility, tighter fin. Conditions.DJIA levelsSupport levels: 25793 25704 25619 Resistance levels: 25969 26052 26141 The technical indicators in the DJIA are still positive on a weekly time frame, although are now mixed nearer term. A pullback will likely test the commitments of the bulls at the 76.4% Fibo at 25668 which could spark a flurry of profit-taking flurry back to the 50% mean reversion of the rally from the latest swing low to 25631. An additional bid and extension in the rally would likely look to 26277 as the 2nd Dec swing highs.

DXY 4-hour chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading between the 50 and 100 SMA suggesting a sideways market in the medium-term. The head-and-sho

DXY 4-hour chartThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading between the 50 and 100 SMA suggesting a sideways market in the medium-term.The head-and-shoulders pattern suggests further weakness ahead with 95.40 as main support. Resistance is at 96.70 and 97.10 levelAdditional key levelsDollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.55
    Today Daily change %: 0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 96.52
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.32
    Daily SMA50: 96.39
    Daily SMA100: 96.4
    Daily SMA200: 95.55
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 97.08
    Previous Daily Low: 96.42
    Previous Weekly High: 97.37
    Previous Weekly Low: 96.62
    Previous Monthly High: 96.96
    Previous Monthly Low: 95.03
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.67
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.83
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.27
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.01
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.61
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.93
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.33
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.59  
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