هشدار ریسک: CFDs ابزارهای پیچیده ای هستند و به دلیل داشتن لوریج بالا، ریسک بالایی هم برای از دست دادن سریع پول دارند.81% از خرده سرمایه گذاران پول خود را در معاملات CFD با این ارائه دهنده از دست می دهند. شما باید در نظر بگیرید که چگونگی کار با CFD ها را درک کنید و توان تحمل ریسک بالای ضرر کردن را داشته باشید.
هشدار ریسک: CFDs ابزارهای پیچیده ای هستند و به دلیل داشتن لوریج بالا، ریسک بالایی هم برای از دست دادن سریع پول دارند.81% از خرده سرمایه گذاران پول خود را در معاملات CFD با این ارائه دهنده از دست می دهند. شما باید در نظر بگیرید که چگونگی کار با CFD ها را درک کنید و توان تحمل ریسک بالای ضرر کردن را داشته باشید.

خط زمانی اخبار فارکس

دوشنبه، 16 دسامبر، 2019

The contribution of monetary policy to changes in inequality is small when compared with the role of fiscal policy, European Central Bank's (ECB) chie

The contribution of monetary policy to changes in inequality is small when compared with the role of fiscal policy, European Central Bank's (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane argued on Monday. Lane refrained from commenting on the policy outlook or the current state of the economy. Despite the mixed PMI data from the euro area and Germany, the broad-based USD weakness is helping the EUR/USD pair cling to its daily gains near mid-1.11s on Monday. In the second half of the day, the IHS Markit will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US.

The USD/TRY advanced to its highest level since October 22 at 5.8537 on Monday with the TRY struggling to find demand amid escalating US-Turkey diplom

Worries over heightened US-Turkey diplomatic tensions weigh on TRY.CRBT cut its policy rate by 200 basis points last week.Quarterly Jobless Average eased to 13.8% from 14% in Turkey.The USD/TRY advanced to its highest level since October 22 at 5.8537 on Monday with the TRY struggling to find demand amid escalating US-Turkey diplomatic tensions. As of writing, the pair was trading at 5.8490, adding 0.7% on a daily basis. CBRT and politics hurt TRY After the US Senate committee backed legislation that opens the door for additional sanctions on Turkey over its purchase of Russian S-400 missile system last week, Turkish President Erdoğan said that Turkey could shut down the İncirlik airbase if the US were to impose sanctions.  In the meantime, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday announced 200 basis points, above consensus, cut to its one-week repo auction rate. Commenting on the CBRT's policy move, "we flag that the CBRT may face a delicate balancing act in 2020: as the current account turns into a deficit and domestic demand recovers, potential external shocks are likely to have a more material impact than in 2019," said Standard Chartered analysts.  On the other hand, the data from Turkey on Monday revealed that the Quarterly Jobless Average fell to 13.8% in three months to September from 14% but failed to help the TRY stay resilient against the USD. In the second half of the day, the IHS Markit's Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US will be looked upon for fresh catalysts. The US Dollar Index, which posted losses for the second straight week on Friday, was last down 0.2% on the day at 97, limiting the pair's gains for the time being.  

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band near t

Gold lacked any firm directional bias on the first day of a new trading week.Any attempted positive move is likely to remain capped near 100-day SMA.Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the mid-European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band near the $1475 region. Meanwhile, the recent recovery from multi-month lows set in November has been along a short-term ascending trend-channel, which supports prospects for additional gains. Bullish oscillators on hourly/daily charts add credence to the constructive outlook and support prospects for a move towards the top end of the mentioned trend-channel. The latter coincides with 100-day SMA, around the $1490 region, which has been capping the commodity's attempted recovery move over the past one-month or so. Looking at a slightly longer timeframe, the formation of a descending trend-channel on the daily chart over the past 2-1/2 months or so further points to persistent selling bias at higher levels. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for a move towards reclaiming the key $1500 psychological mark. Gold daily chart  

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, notes that speculative investors curtailed their net short exposure to sterling, bringing the net short positi

Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, notes that speculative investors curtailed their net short exposure to sterling, bringing the net short positioning below 10% of open interest for the first time since May, according to CFTC data covering the 4-10 December. Key Quotes “It is key to highlight that the move (+4% of o.i.) in positioning does not embed the election results, so expect the positioning indicator to advance further towards the neutral area in the next CFTC report.” “These sort of dynamics likely spell the end of the sterling short-positioning “advantage” that has exacerbated the upside movements in the currency a number of times in the past few months. This does not mean, however, that a neutral positioning may in any way curb more upside in GBP; we continue to see the balance of risks for EUR/GBP tilted to the downside in the remainder of the year, even after the post-election move.”

According to analysts at TD Securities, with further declines in the manufacturing and services PMIs for December, the UK’s composite PMI fell to its

According to analysts at TD Securities, with further declines in the manufacturing and services PMIs for December, the UK’s composite PMI fell to its lowest level since July 2016 in the immediate aftermath of the EU Referendum. Key Quotes “The manufacturing index fell from 48.9 to 47.4 (mkt 49.2) and services from 49.3 to 49.0 (mkt 49.5). The Markit report said, "Survey respondents overwhelmingly attributed lower business activity to a combination of domestic political uncertainty, a lack of clarity in relation to Brexit and subdued global economic conditions." The January numbers a month from now will be more significant though, as they'll be the first ones that incorporate the general election results and the easing of political uncertainty.” “Some MPC members believe that a lifting of uncertainty will unleash a wave of pent-up demand, and BoE policy going forward will be highly data dependent.”

The AUD/USD pair has managed to recover around 15-20 pips from daily lows and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, albeit

AUD/USD reverses an early dip to 0.6870-65 confluence support.Bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond 0.6900 mark.The AUD/USD pair has managed to recover around 15-20 pips from daily lows and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, albeit remained below the 0.6900 round-figure mark. The pair showed some resilience near the 50% Fibonacci level of the 0.6800-0.6938 positive move, which now coincides with 100-hour SMA and should act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders. Meanwhile, technical indicators on 4-hourly/daily charts maintained their bullish bias and have again started gaining positive traction on the 1-hourly chart, supporting prospects for additional gains. Hence, a move back towards reclaiming the 0.6900 handle – a resistance marked by 23.6% Fibo. level – now looks a distinct possibility amid the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US dollar. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the pair towards Friday’s swing high, around the 0.6935-40 region, before bulls eventually aim towards the key 0.70 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 0.6870-65 confluence region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken seems to accelerate the slide further towards mid-0.6800s (61.8% Fibo. level). Failure to defend the mentioned support levels might turn the pair vulnerable to slide below the 0.6830 intermediate horizontal support towards challenging the 0.6800 round-figure mark. AUD/USD 1-hourly chart  

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government is planning to start the process for the Withdrawal Agreement bill before Christmas and looking to b

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government is planning to start the process for the Withdrawal Agreement bill before Christmas and looking to bring it back to Parliament this Friday, PM Johnson's spokesman said on Monday, per Reuters. "The Withdrawal bill will reflect PM’s agreement with the EU," the spokesman added. "PM made cit lear during the election he was aiming for a Canada-style free trade agreement with no political alignment. The GBP/USD pair doesn't seem to be reacting to these remarks. As of writing, the pair was up 0.3% on the day at 1.3365. Below are some additional quotes. "We are confident of securing a Canada-style free trade agreement." "No-deal planning has continued throughout on a contingency basis, but PM has negotiated a good deal."

Analysts at Nordea Markets explain that the Eurozone’s end-of-the-year PMIs confirm that the region is in a deep manufacturing recession, but still ha

Analysts at Nordea Markets explain that the Eurozone’s end-of-the-year PMIs confirm that the region is in a deep manufacturing recession, but still has a robust service sector. Key Quotes“The euro area composite PMI kept steady in December, just above the 50-mark at 50.6. This makes for a weak fourth quarter and implies a standstill in euro area growth.”“The divergence between the manufacturing and service sectors continued, as the manufacturing PMI disappointed and fell to 45.9 while the services component slightly improved to 52.4. Weakness from the manufacturing sector is still rather contained and not spilling over to the service sector so far.”“The manufacturing PMI in Germany surprised to the downside, and stood at 43.4, contrary to expectations of an improvement. Services PMI came in a bit higher than last month, at 52.0. Employment components are worrying, with especially manufacturing staff cuts worsening. Subdued new orders are keeping a lid on investment. Germany continues to be a drag on euro area growth.”“In France both manufacturing and services components remained in expansionary territory. Growth continues to be mainly driven by the private service sector.The manufacturing PMI did fall however, and came out at 50.3, a good bit below consensus of 51.5. Services PMI on the other hand saw an uptick, albeit marginal, to 52.4.”

The NZD/USD pair registered its highest weekly close since mid-July at 0.6600 last Friday and started the new week on a positive note supported by the

US Dollar Index continues to erase Friday's gains.Upbeat data from China helps NZD gain traction on Monday.Coming up: IHS Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from US.The NZD/USD pair registered its highest weekly close since mid-July at 0.6600 last Friday and started the new week on a positive note supported by the upbeat macroeconomic data releases from China. As of writing, the pair was trading at fresh session highs near 0.6610, adding 0.2% on a daily basis. According to the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Retail Sales increased by 8% on a yearly basis in November to surpass the market expectation of 7.6% and Industrial Production expanded by 6.2% in the same period to ease concerns over a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. Additionally, the latest headlines surrounding the US-China phase-one trade deal suggested that China has agreed to $40-$50 billion worth of agricultural purchases from the US but hasn't publicly admitted it to avoid backlash to help the trade-sensitive antipodeans gather strength against its rivals. Eyes on US and NZ data On the other hand, the US Dollar Index reversed its course following Friday's rally and is now testing the 97 handle. During the American session on Monday, the IHS Markit will release the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the US. Investors will also pay close attention to fresh developments on the trade front. In the early trading hours on Tuesday, ANZ Activity Outlook and ANZ Business Confidence data from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to consider  

In view of analysts at TD Securities, the consensus expects the NY Empire manufacturing index to advance modestly to 5.0 in December up from 2.9 in No

In view of analysts at TD Securities, the consensus expects the NY Empire manufacturing index to advance modestly to 5.0 in December up from 2.9 in November, which would keep it close to the average of the year. Key Quotes “The consensus anticipates the preliminary release of the Markit PMI to show an unchanged number at 52.9 for December. This would follow three consecutive monthly increases in the index from August where it stood at 50.3.”

Citing a Chinese government source, CNBC's Beijing Bureau Chief, Eunice Yoon, explained that China has likely agreed to buy around $40 - $50 billion w

Citing a Chinese government source, CNBC's Beijing Bureau Chief, Eunice Yoon, explained that China has likely agreed to buy around $40 - $50 billion worth of US agricultural products but couldn't acknowledge it publicly to avoid a possible backlash. Regarding the tariff rollback, "China says tariffs phased out “step by step”. US says no promises. (Explained to me US believes rollback would be conditional. Chinese belief is they can meet conditions so China sees tariffs phasing out. So no real disagreement.)," Yoon tweeted out. These remarks had little to no impact on the market sentiment. As of writing, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was up around 1% on the day and the S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% to suggest that Wall Street is likely to open the day in the positive territory.

The USD/JPY pair gained around 100 pips last week but struggled to push higher on Monday as investors are still assessing the trade deal between the U

10-year US Treasury bond yield posts modest daily gains.US Dollar Index retreats to 97 area following Friday's rally.European stocks push higher boosted by easing Brexit concerns.The USD/JPY pair gained around 100 pips last week but struggled to push higher on Monday as investors are still assessing the trade deal between the United States and China. As of writing, the pair was trading at 109.43, adding 0.06% on a daily basis. US-China trade headlines to remain in spotlight Commenting on the phase-one trade deal, “While this is good news, the unorthodox process of the announcement and the mixed signals from each side suggest that things are not smooth behind the scene,” said Danske Bank analysts. “The next thing to watch for is the finalisation of the legal text and signing in early January. Then the two sides move on to phase-two, which will prove more difficult.” In the meantime, easing concerns over a hard Brexit following Boris Johnson's Conservatives dominant victory helped major European stocks to start the new week on firm footing and made it difficult for the safe-haven JPY to find demand. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is adding around 1% to reflect an upbeat mood. In the second half of the day, the IHS Markit's preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Ahead of these data, the US Dollar Index is testing the 97 handle, not allowing the pair to gain traction. Technical levels to watch for  

Danske Bank analysts note that after some conflicting reports, both China and the US officially confirmed the landing of a phase one deal and more det

Danske Bank analysts note that after some conflicting reports, both China and the US officially confirmed the landing of a phase one deal and more details of the agreement came to light. Key Quotes “China has committed to buy at least USD40bn of US agricultural goods annually, to tighten protection for US intellectual property, to ban forced technology transfers from US companies and to refrain from competitive devaluations. In return the US cancelled the planned tariff hike this Sunday and agreed to cut tariffs on USD120bn of Chinese imports that were introduced in September to 7.5% from 15% (tariffs of 25% on some USD250bn of Chinese imports remain in place).” “It is expected that the agreement will be signed in January before talks about the more thorny issues will start in a phase two deal. Although a bumpy road still lies ahead, we think the worst of the trade war probably lies behind us.” “Markets cheered the switch from escalation to de-escalation on the trade front and the removal of two prominent downside risks to the global economy led to a clear performance across cyclical currencies in DM and EM space. This morning, the People's Bank of China set its daily reference rate for the yuan at the strongest level since early August.”

Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, notes that Eurozone’s composite PMI was unchanged at 50.6 in December. Key Quotes “The eurozone's service sector

Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, notes that Eurozone’s composite PMI was unchanged at 50.6 in December. Key Quotes “The eurozone's service sector remains resilient as the industrial recession is about to be extended into its third year. Service sector strength is boosted by a surprising labour market and contagion has been limited so far as problems in industry are in part concentrated in the auto sector and its supplying sectors. Still, whether this remarkable resilience can continue is the question as employment growth is slowing, weakening the prospects for domestic demand growth over the winter months.” “The further weakening in the manufacturing PMI came as somewhat of a surprise as surveys had recently indicated that the downturn had been moderating. The continued manufacturing contraction throughout Q4 indicates that recession concerns, while moderating somewhat due to better geopolitical news, can still not be discarded for now.”

Standard Chartered analysts suggest that China’s November growth data has beaten the market expectations with industrial production (IP) growth surgin

Standard Chartered analysts suggest that China’s November growth data has beaten the market expectations with industrial production (IP) growth surging to 6.2% YoY from 4.7% in October, partly on seasonal factors. Key Quotes “Services-sector growth edged up to 6.8% y/y from 6.6% prior. The labour market remains resilient, with the surveyed city unemployment rate unchanged at 5.1%. Retail sales growth picked up to 8.0% y/y from 7.2% in October, driven by higher inflation and Singles’ Day sales promotions.” “Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth accelerated to 5.2% y/y from 3.7% in October on resilient real-estate investment, while infrastructure investment remained soft and manufacturing investment weakened. Overall, growth momentum appears to have improved in November, supporting our forecast of a tentative stabilisation in Q4-2019.” “The recent Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) confirmed that the top priority for 2020 is to achieve “a moderately prosperous society”. Furthermore, the ‘phase one’ trade deal between China and the US reduces the tariff drag on China’s GDP growth in 2020. These support our above-consensus GDP forecast of 6.1% for 2020.” “We expect the government to set a growth target at around 6% for 2020, providing policy support for a slightly higher growth rate. This includes a proactive fiscal policy, with a shift in fiscal support from tax cuts to spending, and an accommodative monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policy.” “We expect three reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts of 50bps each, or an equivalent liquidity injection through targeted RRR cuts or central bank lending, in the first three quarters of 2020, as well as two 10bps medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate cuts in Q1 and Q2 to facilitate a further lowering of the loan prime rate (LPR).”  

European Monetary Union Labor Cost meets expectations (2.6%) in 3Q

The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick and refreshed session lows, around the 1.3330-25 region on disappointing UK PMI prints. Foll

GBP/USD loses traction on disappointing UK PMI prints.Brexit optimism should help limit the downside, for now.The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick and refreshed session lows, around the 1.3330-25 region on disappointing UK PMI prints. Following the previous session's late pullback from levels beyond the key 1.3500 psychological mark or 18-month tops, the pair managed to regain some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week amid the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Despite a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, supported by the prevalent risk-on mood triggered by the latest trade optimism, the US dollar struggled to attract any buying interest and was seen as one of the key factors driving the pair higher. The uptick, however, lacked any strong follow-through and fizzle out rather quickly near the 1.3420-25 region. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a move lower could further be attributed to the disappointing release of flash UK Manufacturing and Services PMI prints for December. In fact, the UK manufacturing sector activity dropped at the fastest pace since July 2012 in December and the flash UK Services Business Activity Index for December came in at nine-month lows, both missing consensus estimates and exerted some pressure on the British pound. Meanwhile, the downside is likely to remain limited, rather attract some dip-buying interest lower odds of a no-deal Brexit, especially after the incumbent Conservative Party recorded landslide victory at the most important UK Parliamentary elections on December 12. Technical levels to watch  

In its monthly economic assessment report published on Monday, the German Economy Minister said that the Eurozone’s most powerful economy is more or

 In its monthly economic assessment report published on Monday, the German Economy Minister said that the Eurozone’s most powerful economy is more or less stagnating. Additional Headlines (via Reuters): There are initial signs that an industrial recession could be coming to an end as orders stabilize. indicators at the start of the fourth quarter pointed to subdued private consumption even though disposable incomes continued to rise. This comes after the German manufacturing sector activity report released earlier today showed that the manufacturing recession picked up pace this month. EUR/USD surrenders a major part of early modest gains to 200-DMA
UK Manufacturing PMI falls sharply to 47.7 in December.UK Services PMI drops to 49.0 in December. 

United Kingdom Markit Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (49.3) in December: Actual (47.4)

United Kingdom Markit Services PMI below forecasts (49.5) in December: Actual (49)

The shared currency lost some ground during the early European session on Monday and dragged the EUR/USD pair to the lower end of its daily trading ra

EUR/USD retreats from 200-DMA on softer French/German Manufacturing PMIs.Slightly better Services PMI and persistent USD selling helped limit the downside.The shared currency lost some ground during the early European session on Monday and dragged the EUR/USD pair to the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 1.1130 region. The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick and started retreating from the very important 200-day SMA following the disappointing releases of manufacturing PMI prints from the Euro-zone's two largest economies – France and Germany. Mixed Euro-zone PMI prints failed to impress bulls In fact, the French Manufacturing PMI barely managed to hold in the expansion territory and came in at 50.3 for December, down from the previous month's final print of 51.7 and consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 51.5. Adding to this, the German Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 43.4 during the reported month as compared 44.5 expected and 44.1 previous, hitting two-month lows and contracting for the 12th consecutive month in December. Meanwhile, the broader Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI also missed market expectations, though the negative readings, to some extent, were offset by slightly better-than-expected Services PMI prints and extended some support. This coupled with the prevalent US dollar selling bias, despite a modest intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields amid the latest optimism over the US-China trade deal, further collaborated towards limiting the downside. Moving ahead, the flash version of the US Manufacturing PMI, a key highlight from Monday's relatively thin US economic docket, will now be looked upon for some impetus later during the early North-American session. Technical levels to watch  

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0%) in November

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.4%) in November

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.4%) in November

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at -0.3%, below expectations (-0.1%) in November

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI arrives at 45.9 in December vs. 46.4 expected. Eurozone Services PMI arrives at 52.4 in December vs. 52.5 expected.

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI arrives at 45.9 in December vs. 46.4 expected.Eurozone Services PMI arrives at 52.4 in December vs. 52.5 expected. More to come ....

European Monetary Union Markit PMI Composite below forecasts (50.7) in December: Actual (50.6)

European Monetary Union Markit Services PMI above expectations (52) in December: Actual (52.4)

European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI below expectations (47.3) in December: Actual (45.9)

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the early European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band near

Gold weighed down by trade optimism-led risk-on mood.Any uptick in the US bond yields further capped the upside.The prevalent USD selling bias helped limit the downside.Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action through the early European session on Monday and remained confined in a narrow trading band near the $1475 region. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus or assist the precious metal to build on last week's positive move to over one-month tops, back closer to the key 100-day SMA strong hurdle. The limited trade deal between the world’s two largest economies remained supportive of the prevalent risk-on mood across global financial markets and was seen weighing on traditional safe-haven assets, including gold. It is worth recalling that the "phase one" US-China trade deal was announced last week, under which the US decided to not to pursue a new round of tariffs that were due to go into effect on Sunday and China, in turn, said it would substantially increase agricultural purchases. Improving global risk sentiment was further reinforced by a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which further played its part towards keeping a lid on any attempted bullish move for the non-yielding yellow metal. The negative forces, to a larger extent, were offset by persistent selling bias surrounding the US dollar, which eventually extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity and led to a subdued/range-bound trading action on the first day of a new trading week. Moving ahead, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday and hence, the USD price dynamics, along with the broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as key drivers of the commodity's momentum on Monday. Technical levels to watch  

ANZ analysts note that India’s early data for November combined with October data show some green shoots. Key Quotes “The bulk of the good news, howev

ANZ analysts note that India’s early data for November combined with October data show some green shoots. Key Quotes “The bulk of the good news, however, comes from consumption indicators even as activity and investment indices remain weak.” “Overall, we remain cautious on a material improvement in growth in H2 FY20. We will await another set of monthly data to ascertain if a recovery is actually taking shape or whether it is temporary.” “As the economy has yet to show any gains from easing in monetary policy, fiscal policy will need to do much of the heavy lifting for growth.” “We also see an end to the Reserve Bank of India’s easing cycle early next year.”

German Manufacturing PMI arrives at 43.4 in December vs. 44.5 expected. German Services PMI stands at 52.0 in December vs. 52.0 expected.

German Manufacturing PMI arrives at 43.4 in December vs. 44.5 expected.German Services PMI stands at 52.0 in December vs. 52.0 expected.

Germany Markit Services PMI meets forecasts (52) in December

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 43.4, below expectations (44.5) in December

Germany Markit PMI Composite below forecasts (49.9) in December: Actual (49.4)

Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that GBP/USD trades back around the March peak at 1.3382, having briefly reached 1.3515 post the UK electi

Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that GBP/USD trades back around the March peak at 1.3382, having briefly reached 1.3515 post the UK election result last week. Key Quotes “Above the high at 1.3515 sits the December 2017 high at 1.3550 and still further up the September 2017 peak at 1.3658 as well as the February 2018 low at 1.3712, all of which are now in focus for the weeks to come.” “Support is to be found between the 1.3270 late March high and the 1.3217 January peak. There is also support to be seen at the 1.3187 May peak.” “A daily chart close below the 1.3050 December 12 low would put the 200 day moving average at 1.2699 back on the plate.”

France Markit PMI Composite meets forecasts (52) in December

France Markit Services PMI registered at 52.4 above expectations (52.1) in December

France Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.3, below expectations (51.5) in December

The bearish pressure surrounding the greenback remained unabated on the first day of a new trading week and dragged the USD/CAD pair to fresh multi-we

The USD selling remains unabated despite an uptick in the US bond yields.Bullish oil prices underpinned the loonie and added to the bearish pressure.The bearish pressure surrounding the greenback remained unabated on the first day of a new trading week and dragged the USD/CAD pair to fresh multi-week lows, below mid-1.3100s in the last hour. The pair extended its recent pullback from a six-month-old descending trend-line resistance – levels beyond the 1.3300 handle – and witnessed some follow-through selling on Monday, marking its fifth day of a negative move in the previous six. Weighed down by weaker USD, bullish oil Despite a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, supported by the prevalent risk-on mood triggered by the latest trade optimism, the US dollar struggled to attract any buying interest and was seen as one of the key factors exerting some pressure on the major. This coupled with an intraday bounce in crude oil prices – now back near the $60.00/barrel –provided an additional boost to the commodity-linked currency – loonie and further collaborated to the pair’s downfall to the lowest level since November 6. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any support at lower levels or the ongoing slide marks a fresh bearish breakdown amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada. Technical levels to watch  

Turkey Budget Balance increased to 7.8B in November from previous -14.9B

Monday's UK economic docket highlights the Preliminary readings of the UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs, due at 09:30GMT. The UK Manufacturing PMI i

The UK PMIs overview Monday's UK economic docket highlights the Preliminary readings of the UK Manufacturing and Services PMIs, due at 09:30GMT. The UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to register a modest rebound, though remain in the contraction territory at 49.4 for December as compared to the previous month's final reading of 48.9. Meanwhile, the UK Services PMI is also expected to edge higher to 49.6 during the reported month from 49.3 in November. Analysts at TD Securities are also looking for a bit of improvement in the UK’s December flash PMIs and explained: “We look for the manufacturing PMI to rise from 48.9 to 49.4 (mkt 49.1), and for the services PMI to rise from 49.3 to 49.8 (mkt 49.5). The January numbers a month from now will be more significant, as they'll be the first ones that incorporate the general election results and the easing of political uncertainty. Some MPC members believe that a lifting of uncertainty will unleash a wave of pent-up demand, and BoE policy going forward will be highly data dependent.” How could they affect GBP/USD? Ross J Burland, Senior Analysts and Editor at FXStreet, offered his take on the GBP/USD major: “On a positive outcome, and so long as the week's other data for the UK is positive, based on an ATR of over 100 pips, while considering Octobers 145 pip ATR highs, bulls can target a break of 1.35 handle and recent highs of 1.3514 and hold above there. On the downside, the 21-day moving average is located in the low 1.30s which meet the 21 October highs of 1.3012 and S1 at 1.3305 as a key support area.” Key Notes    •  UK PMI Preview: GBP/USD bulls to target 1.35 handle on improved data    •  GBP/USD: Recovery falters just shy of 1.3400 ahead of UK PMIs    •  Chart of the week: GBP/USD bulls target a grind higher to 1.3850s About the UK PMIs The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish. The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does.

South Korea Trade Balance dipped from previous $3.37B to $3.34B in November

TD Securities analysts are looking for a bit of improvement in the UK’s December flash PMIs, although they're unlikely to bounce all the way back to t

TD Securities analysts are looking for a bit of improvement in the UK’s December flash PMIs, although they're unlikely to bounce all the way back to their level of two months ago as election uncertainty continues to weigh. Key Quotes “We look for the manufacturing PMI to rise from 48.9 to 49.4 (mkt 49.1), and for the services PMI to rise from 49.3 to 49.8 (mkt 49.5). The January numbers a month from now will be more significant, as they'll be the first ones that incorporate the general election results and the easing of political uncertainty. Some MPC members believe that a lifting of uncertainty will unleash a wave of pent-up demand, and BoE policy going forward will be highly data dependent.”

According to Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/CHF stabilised marginally above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at .9800/.9799. Key Quotes “Onl

According to Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/CHF stabilised marginally above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at .9800/.9799. Key Quotes “Only failure at .9799 would push key support at .9716/.9695 to the fore. It is the location of the January, June, mid- and late August lows. Below it sit the .9659 August low and the September 2018 low at .9543.” “Resistance above the recent lows at .9841/56 can be seen at the .9869 mid-November low and also in the .9900 region. Above it the December 6 high and the 55 day moving average can be spotted at .9919/22. While trading below the .9919/22 resistance area, we consider the cross to be vulnerable. Key resistance remains to be seen at the 1.0014/28 mid-June and October as well as November peaks.” “A rise above the 1.0028 level would target the November 2018 high at 1.0128 and the April peak at 1.0240.”

Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currenc

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well. The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany, due at 0830 GMT, is seen arriving at 44.5 in December, up from November’s 44.1 final print while the index for the services sector is expected to rise to 52.0 this month vs. 51.7 last. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI (due at 0900 GMT) shows 47.1 for December vs. 46.9 seen in the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen a touch higher at 52.0 in the reported month vs. 51.9 prior. How could they affect EUR/USD? On a downside surprise, the spot could meet fresh supply and fall back to test the 10-DMA support at 1.1105, a break below which could open floors towards the 1.1070 demand area, the confluence of 20, 50 and 100-DMA. Should the data better estimates, the rates could regain the 200-DMA at 1.1153, above which the next upside target awaits at 1.1200 (Dec 13 high). At the press time, the EUR/USD pair is seen flirting with fresh session tops at 1.1145, up +0.21% so far. Key Notes US-China trade and global PMIs amongst market movers today – Danske Bank ECB’s Holzmann: Possibility of rate change if 2020 trough passes Intra-Day News and Views and data to be released today - EUR/USD About German/ Eurozone flash PMIs The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

Colombia Industrial output (YoY) rose from previous 0.3% to 2.1% in October

India WPI Inflation came in at 0.58% below forecasts (0.74%) in November

Analysts at TD Securities think that Germany's manufacturing PMI can bounce a bit higher again in December, though with a smaller improvement than the

Analysts at TD Securities think that Germany's manufacturing PMI can bounce a bit higher again in December, though with a smaller improvement than the outsized 2.0pt gain last month. Key Quotes “We look for the PMI to rise to 45.0 in December (mkt 44.6), which would be its highest print since June, though crucially still well below the 50 mark.” “For France, we expect the services PMI to slip from 52.2 to 51.5 (mkt 52.1), as the strikes across the country weigh on sentiment.”

Turkey 3mth quarterly jobless average fell from previous 14% to 13.8% in September

Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD is trading back below the 200 day moving average at 1.1153, having last week briefly shot up

Axel Rudolph, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD is trading back below the 200 day moving average at 1.1153, having last week briefly shot up to the 1.1200 mark and range trading around this moving average is likely to be seen today. Key Quotes “Above 1.1200 lie the 55 week moving average at 1.1208 and the August peak at 1.1249. Further up meanders the 200 week moving average at 1.1358 which remains in focus for the weeks to come. It represents a critical break point on the topside from a medium term perspective. Support below the 1.1101 December 13 low and the 1.1097 November 21 high is seen at the December 6 low at 1.1040.” “Failure at 1.0981 would target the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0943. This is seen as the last defence for the 1.0879 October low. If revisited, we would look for signs of reversal from there.”

Norway Trade Balance increased to 18.8B in November from previous 5.9B

The AUD/USD pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Monday and consolidated the previous session's sharp intra

AUD/USD remains depressed despite the latest US-China trade optimism.The prevalent USD selling bias helped limit the downside, at least for now.The AUD/USD pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Monday and consolidated the previous session's sharp intraday pullback from 4-1/2 month tops. The pair failed to capitalize on its early positive move and witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround on Friday. Uncertainty over the US President Donald Trump's decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports turned out to be one of the key factors that weighed heavily on the China-proxy Australian dollar and led to the pair's slide of around 75 pips from an intraday high level of 0.6938 – the highest since July 26. The pair remained depressed on the first day of a new trading week and seemed rather unimpressed by the fact that the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Sunday confirmed that the phase one US-China trade deal is totally done. Bulls even shrugged off mostly better-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production data, which suggested the economy may be stabilizing. Meanwhile, the prevalent risk-on mood seemed to be one of the key factors lending some support to perceived riskier currencies, including the aussie. This coupled with some renewed weakness surrounding the US dollar, despite a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, might further collaborate towards limiting deeper losses amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent positive move might have already run out of the steam and positioning for any further near-term depreciating move. Technical levels to watch  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) governing Council member Robert Holzmann, as he says that there is a possibil

Reuters reports the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) governing Council member Robert Holzmann, as he says that there is a possibility of rate change if 2020 trough passes.

Speaking at an event in Mumbai on Monday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian central bank, Governor and MPC Chair Shaktikanta Das said that there

Speaking at an event in Mumbai on Monday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian central bank, Governor and MPC Chair Shaktikanta Das said that there is space for further policy action to support growth but the timing needs to be optimum to maximize the impact. “While taking a pause, we very carefully and very definitely said there is space for further monetary policy action but the timing will have to be decided in a manner that its impact is optimum and the impact is maximized," he added. Earlier this month, the RBI surprised markets by leaving the key rate unchanged at a level that is the lowest in a decade. However, markets have already priced in a rate cut at its February monetary policy meeting. FX Implications On the dovish comments from the RBI Governor, the Indian rupee slipped further and reached fresh four-day lows against the US dollar at 70.99. USD/INR extends its bounce from multi-month lows into a second straight session on Monday, as uncertainty over the US-China trade deal details continues to undermine the sentiment around the Asian currencies. USD/INR Technical levels to consider   

FX option expiries for Dec 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1030 2.3bn 1.1035 536m 1.1058 651m

FX option expiries for Dec 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.- EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1030 2.3bn  1.1035 536m  1.1058 651m  1.1085 632m  1.1100 801m  1.1125 932m  1.1150 1.2bn  1.1200 1.5bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.3250 846m  1.3300 817m  1.3350 438m  1.3400 808m  1.3425 231m  1.3500 421m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  108.00 699m  108.15 782m  108.25 795m  108.50 402m  109.00 796m  109.50 912m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts  0.6790 580m  - USD/CAD: USD amounts   1.3225 520m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6600 250m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts  0.8250 680m  0.8350 860m  0.8400 377m

According to Danske Bank analysts, markets will continue to watch US-China trade talks closely and any signals on the phase-one deal. Key Quotes “Othe

According to Danske Bank analysts, markets will continue to watch US-China trade talks closely and any signals on the phase-one deal. Key Quotes “Otherwise the euro area Flash PMIs for December will take centre stage today. The manufacturing PMI rose for the second month in a row in November and we look for a further increase in December as more signs of a global recovery are emerging.” “The US will also release preliminary PMI manufacturing and in contrast to ISM manufacturing, PMI has seen a lift in recent months. The regional Empire index will add a further piece to the business cycle puzzle.” “Following the landslide Conservative win, PM Boris Johnson is finalising his cabinet reshuffle and will appoint top ministers today, before outlining his government programme in the Queen's Speech on Thursday. After the GBP rally last week, further Sterling appreciation from here will likely require an improvement in the UK macro outlook as well. UK flash PMIs for December released today will give some clues whether the economy can shrug off its recent lethargy.” “Rest of the week focus turns to Riksbanken, which is expected to hike rates by 25bp and the Norges Bank meeting, where we look for a message of an extended period of unchanged rates. Both meetings take place on Thursday. Apart from PMIs today there are no big data releases on the global front this week.”

The USD/JPY pair edged higher on the first day of a new trading week, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and remained well within the previous se

USD/JPY regained some traction amid fresh trade optimism.The USD selling bias might keep a lid on any runaway rally.The USD/JPY pair edged higher on the first day of a new trading week, albeit lacked any strong follow-through and remained well within the previous session's trading range. The pair had some good two-way price moves on Friday and was influenced by the broader market risk sentiment, which turned out to be one of the key factors that influenced the Japanese yen's perceived safe-haven status. The pair quickly reversed an early dip to sub-109.00 levels and rallied back closer to multi-month tops on the back of optimism led by the outcome of UK Parliamentary elections. Bulls still seemed cautious The positive momentum, however, ran out of the steam near the 109.70 region following the disappointing release of US monthly retail sales data, which kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive. This coupled with uncertainty over the US President Donald Trump's decision to cancel the December 15 tariff-hike on Chinese imports further collaborated to the pair's intraday pullback of around 35-40 pips. The pair finally ended nearly unchanged for the day but managed to regain some positive traction in reaction to the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's comments on Sunday, saying that the phase one US-China trade deal is “totally done.” Under the deal, China said it would substantially increase agricultural purchases in return the US decision to not to pursue a new round of tariffs. The latest optimism remained supportive of the prevalent risk-on mood, which was further reinforced by a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields and helped the pair to regain some positive traction. However, some follow-through USD weakness failed to impress bullish traders and seemed to be the only factor keeping a lid on any runaway rally for the major, at least for the time being. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 109.70 region before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move, possibly beyond the key 110.00 psychological mark, amid absent relevant market moving economic releases. Technical levels to watch  

Analysts at Standard Chartered note that on 13 December, the US and China announced a phase one trade deal and cancelled the proposed tariff hikes on

Analysts at Standard Chartered note that on 13 December, the US and China announced a phase one trade deal and cancelled the proposed tariff hikes on 15 December. Key Quotes “The phase one deal contains nine chapters on the subjects of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency, and expanding trade and dispute resolution, according to a statement from the US Trade Representative office.” “On signing the deal (likely in January 2020 after going through final legal procedures), the US will maintain 25% tariffs on USD 250bn of China imports, and 7.5% tariffs (down from 15%) on USD 120bn of goods. China officials said the deal will better protect foreign companies’ interests in China, and the US is expected to roll back existing tariffs in phases.” “The US also scrapped plans to impose a 15% tariff on USD 156bn of products from China on List 4B from 15 December. In return, China suspended retaliatory tariffs of 5‑10% on a subset of USD 75bn of US products and delayed the re-imposition of 5‑25% tariffs on US autos and auto parts on 15 December.” “Receding global headwinds support our 6.1% growth forecast for China in 2020, which is above the market consensus of 5.9%.” “We estimate the cancellation of the proposed US tariff hike on 15 December averts a 0.2ppt reduction in China’s GDP growth in 2020. Existing US tariffs of 25% on imports from China on List 1, 2, 3 and 15% on List 4A are expected to shave c.0.3ppt from China’s growth in 2020. However, if the US lowers List 4A tariffs to 7.5% from 15% on signing the phase one deal in January,  this will reduce the tariff drag on China’s economy to 0.2ppt in 2020.”  

US-China trade deal: Despite both sides agreeing on the Phase One trade deal on Friday, markets traded with caution, as they remained sceptical over t

US-China trade deal: Despite both sides agreeing on the Phase One trade deal on Friday, markets traded with caution, as they remained sceptical over the details of the deal that appear murky. Meanwhile, China announced over the weekend that it suspended additional tariffs on the US that were effective this Monday. The US dollar traded mixed so far this Monday, weaker against the European currencies while a shade firmer vs. the Antipodeans. The Australian government’s downward revision to Australia’s growth forecasts outweighed upbeat Chinese activity numbers. The Aussie was capped below 0.6900 while USD/JPY hovered below 109.50 amid tepid risk sentiment.  Brexit optimism: Growing optimism over a speedy and soft Brexit boosted the recovery in GBP/USD from near 1.3320 to 1.3400. The Cable outperformed in Asia and remains strongly bid ahead of UK PMIs and PM Johnson’s address before the parliament. Meanwhile, EUR/USD consolidated around 1.1130 in the run up to the Markit Preliminary PMI reports. Among related markets, Asian stocks traded mixed on concerns over trade deal details while Treasury yields advanced nearly 1%. Gold was little changed around $ 1475 while both crude benchmarks posted small losses. Cryptocurrencies traded with mild losses, with Bitcoin trading around $7,050.

Danske Bank analysts note that the US and China both announced on Friday that a phase-one deal had been reached, which marked a shift from escalation

Danske Bank analysts note that the US and China both announced on Friday that a phase-one deal had been reached, which marked a shift from escalation to de-escalation. Key Quotes “While this is good news, the unorthodox process of the announcement and the mixed signals from each side suggest that things are not smooth behind the scene.” “The next thing to watch for is the finalisation of the legal text and signing in early January. Then the two sides move on to phase-two, which will prove more difficult.” “With the US election getting closer, however, we do not expect to see another round of escalation in 2020. But we should expect some bumps on the road, still.”

Westpac analysts point out that Australia’s budget surplus was cut by $21.5bn over four years as softer economic outlook hits revenues. Key Quotes “Th

Westpac analysts point out that Australia’s budget surplus was cut by $21.5bn over four years as softer economic outlook hits revenues. Key Quotes “The Federal government has sharply downgraded the fiscal outlook in its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO), released today.” “In particular the forecast budget surpluses for 2020/21 and 2021/22 have been reduced from $11.0bn and $17.8bn to $6.1bn and $8.4bn respectively.” “The government has gone further and cut the wages forecast to 2.5% - no lift in wages growth from the 2019/20 forecast of 2.5% and in line with the Reserve Bank’s thinking.” “We estimate that the difference between our own forecast that nominal GDP growth in 2020/21 would be lowered to 3.0% in this document and the government’s forecast of 2.25% is explained about 50/50 between a weaker wages/ prices forecast and a lower profile for commodity prices – largely centred around coal.” “There are upside risks to the commodity price forecasts but we can understand why the government would be cautious around these forecasts in MYEFO - wanting to avoid a further fiscal downgrade when the 2020 Budget is announced on May 12.” “Under these new fiscal estimates from MYEFO the fiscal position would change to deficits of $0.9bn and $5.6bn, respectively if the tax cuts were to be brought forward.”

According to CFTC positioning data for the week ending 10 December 2019, leveraged funds and asset managers changed stances on the dollar as the forme

According to CFTC positioning data for the week ending 10 December 2019, leveraged funds and asset managers changed stances on the dollar as the former turned USD buyers while the latter turned sellers, notes the research team at ANZ. Key Quotes “Post the CFTC cut-off date, the Fed’s prolonged hold and news on the US-China Phase One trade deal have boosted risk appetite and weakened the USD. We expect USD positioning to continue to react to incoming details on the deal over the coming days.” “Funds turned sellers while asset managers turned buyers of EUR and GBP. Both currencies have since firmed further on ECB’s expected hold at Lagarde’s first meeting and Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party delivering a decisive victory in the UK elections.” “JPY and CHF saw broad-based buying, but safe haven positioning will likely see some paring back on positive news on the trade front.” “On commodity currencies, funds sold CAD and NZD while asset managers bought both. Both were, however, net AUD buyers. Funds’ net AUD positioning turned positive for the first time since May 2018.” “EMFX net positioning changed only for funds, as they sold MXN by a larger amount than their buying in BRL.”  

The pound remains supported by the UK PM Johnson’s commitment to sailing the UK out of the European Union (EU) swiftly before January 31st, 2020 after

GBP/USD recovers nearly 90-pips from Friday’s NY low of 1.3306.Brexit optimism to keep the sentiment lifted around the pound. Focus remains on the UK Markit Preliminary PMIs ahead of BOE.The pound remains supported by the UK PM Johnson’s commitment to sailing the UK out of the European Union (EU) swiftly before January 31st, 2020 after his Conservatives Party secured a landslide majority in the historic election held last Thursday. On Monday, PM Johnson will welcome 109 new Conservative lawmakers to parliament and will reiterate his promise to boost funding to the state health service as well. UK PMI Preview: GBP/USD bulls to target 1.35 handle on improved data Further, the GBP/USD pair is also buoyed by the increased expectations of an improvement in the UK’s manufacturing sector activity, as the Markit Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for December is seen arriving at 49.4 vs. 48.9 previous. The country’s Services PMI is expected to arrive at 49.6 vs. 49.3 last. On the USD-side of the equation, markets remain unimpressed by the details of the US-China Phase One trade deal reached last Friday that capped the recovery in the US dollar across its main competitors. The US dollar index now tests the 97 handle, retreating from Friday’s NY highs of 97.24. At the time of writing, the Cable trades with sizeable gains of +0.50% around 1.3390, having stalled its correction from 19-month highs of 1.3515 just ahead of the 1.33 handle.  Looking ahead, the GBP bulls will keep up the charge as the UK looks to clear the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in the parliament before Christmas while the Bank of England (BOE) could signal a readiness to alter course on the monetary policy, with the UK election out of the way.              GBP/USD Technical levels to watch  

Gerard Burg, senior economist at National Australia Bank, points out that the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China has now been concluded w

Gerard Burg, senior economist at National Australia Bank, points out that the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China has now been concluded with an official signing to occur in January. Key Quotes “The deal will see US tariffs that had been scheduled for implementation on 15 December suspended, and the rate on those imposed in September halved (from 15% to 7.5%). China has reportedly agreed to purchase agricultural goods worth around US$40 billion from the US (a figure many observers have doubted is actually possible). The limited rollback of tariffs suggests that this is more of a ceasefire than a resolution to the trade dispute, and risks of further escalation persist.” “Although the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China should provide some greater clarity around the relationship between the two countries, the improvement is modest. Despite the halving in the tariffs imposed in September, China’s manufacturers still face a more negative trade environment than they did in August this year. Our outlook for China’s economic growth is unchanged – with growth at 5.9% in 2020 and 5.8% in 2021.” “China’s industrial production grew more rapidly in November 2019, increasing by 6.2% yoy (up from a particularly weak 4.7% yoy in October).” “Fixed asset investment growth accelerated in November – up to 5.2% yoy in nominal terms (compared with 3.7% in October).” “China’s trade surplus was slightly narrower in November – down to US$38.7 billion (from US$42.5 billion previously) – as the month-on-month increase in imports exceeded the increase in exports.” “China’s producer prices continued to fall in November – albeit slightly less rapidly than in October. The Producer Price Index declined by 1.4% yoy in November (compared with 1.6% previously).” “China’s recently adopted monetary policy benchmark – the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) – edged lower in mid-November, down 5 basis points to 4.15%.”

Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Minister for North America, Jesus Seade, tweeted out on Sunday, objecting a part in the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreem

Mexico’s Deputy Foreign Minister for North America, Jesus Seade, tweeted out on Sunday, objecting a part in the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that would subject his country to labor enforcement inspectors from other countries, per Reuters. Key Quotes: “Mexico will NEVER accept any measure that would see inspectors disguised for a simple reason: Mexican law prohibits it, “NO INSPECTORS.” “The obsession of Democrats with ‘enforcement’, an unilateralist term meaning ‘force to comply’, cost blood, was tended to with the panels.” “The legitimate way to enforce, in both countries, is with our respective laws.” Last Tuesday, Canada, Mexico and the United States signed a fresh overhaul of a quarter-century-old deal – USMCA.

ANZ analysts note that Australia’s Government downgraded its expectation of the underlying cash surplus in 2019-20 to AUD5.0bn (0.3% of GDP) and acros

ANZ analysts note that Australia’s Government downgraded its expectation of the underlying cash surplus in 2019-20 to AUD5.0bn (0.3% of GDP) and across the coming three years. Key Quotes “This represents a change of fortunes compared to the last two years of budget updates in which the 2019-20 underlying cash surplus estimates were upgraded.” “Most of the changes since April have been due to expectations of lower receipts, reflecting lower nominal GDP. Downgrades to the outlook for wages and company profits have been the drivers. Company profits are heavily dependent on the iron ore price, which the Government has estimated conservatively.” “The Treasury expects receipts to be AUD32.9bn lower than it expected in April.” “Spending expectations have also fallen (in the Government’s favour), and these offset AUD19.7bn of the fall in receipts due to parameter variations.” “In net terms, policy decisions (mainly increased spending on aged care, drought and infrastructure) were worth only AUD8bn over the four years, small when compared to the size of “parameter changes”.” “This illustrates how difficult it is for the Government to push against a slowing economy with fiscal measures when it is politically bound to a surplus.” “Net debt is expected to peak at AUD392.3bn or 19.5% of GDP in 2019-20, that is a deterioration from budget-time expectation of 19.2% of GDP (in 2018-19).” “We expect nominal growth to be stronger than the Treasury is predicting, implying that the fiscal outcome is likely to be better than the MYEFO forecast.”

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at -4.6% below forecasts (0.7%) in October

According to the latest trade data published by the Indonesian Statistics Bureau, the country posted a bigger-than-expected trade deficit in November.

According to the latest trade data published by the Indonesian Statistics Bureau, the country posted a bigger-than-expected trade deficit in November. Indonesia reported a trade deficit of $-1.33 billion vs. $-0.13 billion expected and $0.16 billion previous. The imports and exports came in at -9.24% and -5.67% respectively vs. -13.32% and -1.18% expectations and -16.39% and -6.13% respective priors. The median forecast from economists was for a $-0.13 billion trade deficit last month, the Reuters poll showed last week. About Indonesia’s Trade Balance The Trade Balance released by Statistics Indonesia is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for Indonesian exports is seen, the Rupiah will receive a positive (or bullish) effect, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Indonesia Trade Balance below forecasts ($-0.13B) in November: Actual ($-1.33B)

Indonesia Imports above forecasts (-13.32%) in November: Actual (-9.24%)

EUR/USD chated a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern on Friday, aborting the immediate bullish view and establishing 1.12 as the level to beat

EUR/USD created a bearish inverted hammer candle on Friday, establishing 1.12 as key resistance. A bearish hammer reversal would be confirmed if the spot closes Monday below 1.1102. Better-than-expected German PMI is needed to avoid a bearish close.EUR/USD chated a bearish inverted hammer candlestick pattern on Friday, aborting the immediate bullish view and establishing 1.12 as the level to beat for the bulls.  The inverted hammer, due to its long upper wick, is widely considered a sign of buyer exhaustion. A bearish reversal is confirmed only if the follow-through is negative, preferably in the form of a close below the candle's low.  As a result, Friday's low of 1.1102 is the level to beat for the sellers.  Focus on PMIs Monday will see the release of the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) across the Eurozone.  The German Markit Manufacturing PMI for December, due at 08:30 GMT, is forecasted to print at 44.5 compared to 44.1 in November.  A big beat on expectations would reinforce the view put forward by last week's better-than-expected ZEW survey and will likely draw bids for the common currency.  Post-German data, the focus will shift to the Eurozone PMI, due at 09:00 GMT, and Labor Cost (Q3), scheduled at 10:00 GMT.  The US and China have reached a phase-one trade deal, which is good news for Germany. However, the offshore Yuan (CNH) is struggling to gain ground and the USD/CNH pair is teasing a break above 7.00. The EUR, therefore, is unlikely to benefit much from the calm on the trade front.  At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1133, representing a 0.14% gain on the day.  Technical levels  

Indonesia Exports registered at -5.67%, below expectations (-1.18%) in November

Federal Reserve's balance sheet may hit record highs above $4.516 trillion in May 2020 if the rapid pace of expansion witnessed over the last 3.5 mont

Federal Reserve's balance sheet may hit record highs above $4.516 trillion in May 2020 if the rapid pace of expansion witnessed over the last 3.5 months sustains, according to the popular investor and analyst Charlie Bilello.  The central bank has increased its balance sheet size by more than $330 billion since September.  At press time, the balance sheet stands near $4.10 trillion.  The Fed started buying Treasuries in September after the money markets went ballistic, sending overnight interest rates as high as 10%.  President Powell has reiterated multiple times that the ongoing purchases of treasuries is not a part of a quantitative easing program. Most experts, however, are of the opinion that the Fed has embarked on the round four of the QE program. 

USD/INR created an inverted hammer candlestick pattern on Friday, snapping a four-day losing streak. The inverted hammer comprises a small real body,

USD/INR created an inverted hammer on Friday, neutralizing the immediate bearish setup. A close above the hammer's high of 70.88 is needed to confirm a bullish reversal. USD/INR created an inverted hammer candlestick pattern on Friday, snapping a four-day losing streak.  The inverted hammer comprises a small real body, an extended upper wick. The candle's upper wick indicates the bulls are looking to drive the price upwards.  As a result, the inverted hammer is considered a sign of bullish reversal, especially if it appears following a notable sell-off.  In USD/INR's case, it has appeared following a drop from 71.86 to 70.53.  The bearish-to-bullish trend change, however, would be confirmed if the spot closes today above 70.88 (inverted hammer's high).  So, Friday's high is the level to beat for the bulls. On the flip side, a break below Friday's low of 70.53 is needed to revive the bearish view.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish above 70.88 Technical levels  

In the latest report published on Monday, Deborah Tan, an Assistant Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service, made downward revision to India’s eco

In the latest report published on Monday, Deborah Tan, an Assistant Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service, made downward revision to India’s economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2019/2020 amid weak household consumption. Key Quotes: “India’s economy is likely to grow 4.9% in the currency financial year, against earlier prediction of 5.8%.” “What was once an investment-led slowdown has now broadened into weakening consumption, driven by financial stress among rural households on the back of stagnating agricultural wage growth and constrained productivity, as well as weak job creation due to rigid land and labor laws.” “While the income shock to households has been unfolding over several years, it was not visible on headline growth as long as households could borrow from NBFIs. With the materialization of a credit supply shock, we now see the impact of these twin shocks on growth." “Although a modest recovery is expected for next year, supported partly by spillovers from policy stimulus, economic growth will be weaker than in recent years, which will have negative credit implications for Indian issuers in a range of sectors.”

Chinese exporters have expanded their global market share from approximately 11.7% of total goods exports to 11.9%, despite the 18-month US-China trad

Chinese exporters have expanded their global market share from approximately 11.7% of total goods exports to 11.9%, despite the 18-month US-China trade war, according to The Economist.  While exports to the US are down 15% so far this year, the outbound shipments to South-East Asian countries like Vietnam and Malaysia have boomed. Further, exports to Europe are on track to surpass exports to America this year. Going by the data, it appears China is winning the trade war.  US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Sunday that the phase one trade deal reached on Friday is “totally done,” and will nearly double US exports to China over the next two years.

WTI oil is currently trading at $59.83 per barrel, having hit a high of $60.45 on Friday. That was the highest level since Sept. 17. The hourly chart

WTI is rapped in a rising wedge on the hourly chartA break below $59.21 would confirm a wedge breakdown. A close above $59.81 would imply bullish continuation. WTI oil is currently trading at $59.83 per barrel, having hit a high of $60.45 on Friday. That was the highest level since Sept. 17. The hourly chart shows the black gold is trapped in a rising wedge, which comprises converging trendlines connecting higher highs and higher lows. The converging nature of trendlines indicates buyer exhaustion.  As a result, a wedge breakdown is considered a bearish reversal sign.  At press time, the lower edge of the wedge is seen at $59.21. An hourly close lower would imply an end of the rally from lows near $55.30 and open the doors for a drop to support at $58.00. On the flip side, a convincing close above the Dec. 6 high of $59.81 would signal a continuation of the rally.  It is worth noting that WTI on Friday clocked a three-month high of $60.45, but failed to close above $59.81. The rejection of higher prices indicates bull exhaustion and scope for a drop to the wedge support of $59.21.  Hourly chartTrend: Bearish below $59.21 Technical levels  

Japanese government spokesman Suga is out on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the Japan-South Korea trade issue. Key Quotes: We hop

Japanese government spokesman Suga is out on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the Japan-South Korea trade issue. Key Quotes: We hope that Japan, S. Korea study N. Korea issue with rigor. Current Japan-S. Korea talks not the place to resolve issue of export curbs.

AUD/USD is struggling to gather upside traction despite an above-forecast China data. The pair picked up a bid near 0.6775 after the consumer spending

AUD/USD is struggling to build bullish momentum despite the above-forecast China data. Both retail sales and industrial production for November bettered estimates. Fears of a deeper slowdown in China are likely capping gains in the AUD. AUD/USD is struggling to gather upside traction despite an above-forecast China data.  The pair picked up a bid near 0.6775 after the consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose 8% year-on-year in November, beating the forecasted rise of 7.6% by a big margin, having increased by 7.2% in October.  Industrial production rose 6.2% compared to an expected rise of 5%, marking an improvement from October's 4.7%. Further, the People's Bank of China has injected 300 billion Yuan into the system via a one-year medium-term lending facility.  So far, however, the upside in AUD/USD has been capped around 0.6886. At press time, the pair is trading at 0.6880, representing no change on the day.  The bullish pressure remains weak, possibly due to the news that China is planning to lower its 2020 gross domestic product target to 6% from the current year's 6.5%.  Looking forward, the fears of a deeper slowdown in China in 2020 could continue to overshadow the phase one US-China trade deal and weigh over the AUD.  Technical levels  

Following the releases of upbeat Chinese activity data, the spokesman for the country’s stats bureau, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted

Following the releases of upbeat Chinese activity data, the spokesman for the country’s stats bureau, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted the following key points. China's economy still faces relatively big downward pressure.China will keep its economic operations within a reasonable range.China Nov nationwide survey-based jobless rate at 5.1%. China's economy created 12.79 mln new urban jobs in Jan-Nov.Economic operations showed positive changes in Nov. AUD/USD struggles to gather upside traction despite upbeat China data

China’s November Retail Sales YoY, the number arrived at +8.0% vs. +7.6% exp and +7.2% last, with Industrial Output YoY at +6.2% and +5.0% exp and +4.

China’s November Retail Sales YoY, the number arrived at +8.0% vs. +7.6% exp and +7.2% last, with Industrial Output YoY at +6.2% and +5.0% exp and +4.7% last.  Meanwhile, Fixed Asset Investment YoY stood at +5.2% vs. +5.2% expected and +5.2% last. 

China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) in line with expectations (5.2%) in November

China Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (7.6%) in November: Actual (8%)

China Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (5%) in November: Actual (6.2%)

PBOC conducts medium-term lending facility operations on Monday. PBOC issues 1-year MLF at 3.25% vs 3.25% previously-statement.

PBOC conducts medium-term lending facility operations on Monday. PBOC issues 1-year MLF at 3.25% vs 3.25% previously-statement.

GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3357, representing a 20-pip gain on the day. The minor move upwards has confirmed a descending channel breakout on t

GBP/USD's 15-min chart is reporting a bearish channel breakout. The breakout may be short-lived, as the daily chart is reporting oversold conditions. GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.3357, representing a 20-pip gain on the day.  The minor move upwards has confirmed a descending channel breakout on the 15-minute chart.  The pattern indicates the pullback from the 19-month high of 1.3315 reached on Friday has ended and a fresh move toward 1.34 could be in the offing.  The breakout, however, could end up trapping the buyers on the wrong side of the market, as the long upper wick attached to Friday's candle is signaling buyer exhaustion.  Further, the pair is looking most overbought since January 2018, according to the 14-day relative strength index (RSI).  As a result, the probability of a fall back to 1.33 is high.  15-min chartTrend: Overbought Technical levels  

China House Price Index down to 7.1% in November from previous 7.8%

Wu Ken, China’s ambassador to Germany threatened Berlin with retaliation if the Eurozone's largest economy excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a suppl

Wu Ken, China’s ambassador to Germany threatened Berlin with retaliation if the Eurozone's largest economy excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment.  Key quotes If Germany were to take a decision that leads to Huawei’s exclusion from the German market, there will be consequences. The Chinese government will not stand idly by. Lawmakers in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government have challenged her China policy with a bill that would impose a broad ban on “untrustworthy” 5G vendors.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9915 versus Friday's fix at 7.0156.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9915 versus Friday's fix at 7.0156.

Gold is lacking a clear directional bias in Asia, having eked out its biggest weekly gain in nearly three months. The yellow metal is currently tradin

Gold rallied by 1% last week, tracking the weakness in the US dollar. Fed's balance sheet expansion could keep gold better bid. Gold is lacking a clear directional bias in Asia, having eked out its biggest weekly gain in nearly three months. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,474 per Oz, representing little or no change on the day. Gold ended last week with a 1.07% gain - the biggest rise since the final week of September. Back then, the metal had rallied by 1.89%. Dovish Fed The US Federal Reserve (Fed) on Dec. 11 kept rates steady at 1.5-1.75% and signaled a rate cut pause for 2020. Powell, however, cited persistent high inflation as a prerequisite for interest rate hikes, sending the US dollar lower across the board. The dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against majors, declined by 0.51% last week, having shed 0.60% in the previous week. The weakness in the US dollar helped gold print a 1% gain despite the US-China phase one trade deal and Brexit optimism. Fed's balance sheet expansion The Fed is set to bloat its balance sheet further, having expanded it more than $300 billion since mid-September.  The central bank is planning to offer a total of $490 billion in liquidity via repo operations for the turn of the year, including the $75 billion that it has already pumped in through three earlier term actions, according to Bloomberg.  As a result, the balance sheet is seen expanding to $4.5 trillion next month from the current $4.1 trillion. Historically, gold has cheered the Fed's balance sheet expansion. Gold technical levels  

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 48.8 above expectations (48.4) in December

UBS analysts expect the European Central Bank's (ECB) balance sheet will expand to €5 trillion in 2020 on the targeted long-term refinancing loans (TL

UBS analysts expect the European Central Bank's (ECB) balance sheet will expand to €5 trillion in 2020 on the targeted long-term refinancing loans (TLTRO) - III credits and quantitative easing program, according to a tweet by popular Twitter analyst Holger Zschaepitz. The balance sheet was 4.67 trillion Euros or 41% of the Eurozone gross domestic product at the end of July. The Bloomberg calculations show the combined balance-sheet growth of the ECB, Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will reach almost $100 billion a month by the end of this year.  The ECB is currently buying bonds at €20 billion per month and the program is expected to continue until "shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates". The targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) are Eurosystem operations that provide financing to credit institutions with an aim to preserve favorable borrowing conditions for banks and stimulate bank lending to the real economy.            

Australian Financial Minister has been crossing the wires and has rejected the notion there is a need for more fiscal stimulus.

Australian Financial Minister has been crossing the wires and has rejected the notion there is a need for more fiscal stimulus.

NZD/USD is starting out the week below the 0.66 handle following a pullback on Friday as market hysteria over the phase -one deal dissipates consideri

NZD/USD is pulling back on the lack of details in the trad-deal news. NZD/USD will be paying attention to key domestic date in GDP and trade balance. NZD/USD is starting out the week below the 0.66 handle following a pullback on Friday as market hysteria over the phase -one deal dissipates considering the lack of encouraging details that accompanies the headline.  NZD/USD is trading at 0.6589 between a narrow range in a quiet session, so far, of between 0.6587 and 0.6601.  On Friday, the kiwi lost its traction due to the void detail around the US-China trade deal disappointed markets. The currency had earlier enjoyed a reasonable amount of lift, leading its commodity-linked peers against the USD, but ultimately collapsed into the red with its peers. Trade headlines will remain a driver but the domestic focus will be on NZ Q3 GDP. In recent trade, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has downgraded their Gross Domestic Produce outlook which is weighing on the kiwi and capping bullish attempts. The GDP growth outlook was revised down at 2.2% from the previous survey at 2.3%. Robert Lighthizer attempts to bullish-up the trade deal headlines Meanwhile, trade headlines will continue to be a focus. Both and Chinese officials announced on Friday that a deal they finally agreed to the phase one agreement after a contentious 18-month trade war. However, details are still murky and traders are looking for something more to go on, for now, it appears there is little which the US is getting from agreements that have been made in principle. Over the weekend, US lead negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, was speaking on CBS Lighthizer and said that the phase one US/China trade deal reached on Friday was “totally done,” and it will nearly double US exports to China over the next two years. Key comments “There’s a translation period. There are some scrubs, this is totally done. Absolutely." “We have a list that will go manufacturing, agriculture, services, energy and the like. There’ll be a total for each one of those,” he said. “Overall, it’s a minimum of 200 billion dollars. Keep in mind, by the second year, we will just about double exports of goods to China, if this agreement is in place. Double exports.” “But ultimately, whether this whole agreement works is going to be determined by who’s making the decisions in China, not in the United States,” Lighthizer said. “If the hardliners are making the decisions, we’re going to get one outcome. If the reformers are making the decisions, which is what we hope, then we’re going to get another outcome.” Looking ahead for the week, the immediate US data calendar is second-tier but still worth noting with the December Empire State manufacturing survey from the NY Fed that is expected to show a modest +4 vs +2.9 in November while the NAHB housing market index is seen holding at a firm 70 in December. For New Zealand, GDP and the Trade Balance will be the key focus.  NZD/USD levels      

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) increased to 0.8% in December from previous 0.3%

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) increased to -0.9% in December from previous -1.3%

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has downgraded their Gross Domestic Produce outlook which is weighing on the kiwi and capping bullish a

The New Zealand  Institute of Economic Research has downgraded their Gross Domestic Produce outlook which is weighing on the kiwi and capping bullish attempts.  The GDP growth outlook revised down at 2.2% from the previous survey at 2.3%.   Key notes key drivers of the downward revision were lower expectations of business investment and exports, which were partly offset by slightly stronger expectations of household spending. uncertain global growth outlook has dampened expectations for export growth business confidence has fallen in the face of persistently weak profitability businesses becoming more cautious about investment consumer confidence remains positive …household spending growth should remain robust over the coming years expectations for the labour market  - lower employment and wage growth and a higher unemployment rate over the coming years interest rate expectations have been revised higher for the coming year, but slightly lower beyond 2022. FX implications The bird was one of the top performers for the month od Dec in the G10, reaching as high as 0.6635 on the trade deal noise last week, extending its October reversal of the summer slide from just below the 0.68 handle. Indeed, the bird can continue to strengthen so long as the economic backdrop and trade relations continue to find traction. However, on forecasts such as this, it will be hard to justify the upside – Trade headlines will remain a driver but the domestic focus will be on NZ third-quarter GDP.  

USD/JPY has opened the week on the backfoot but has stablised above four-hour bullish moving averages, as well as the rising 21-DMA while risk appetit

USD/JPY extends its upside within a bullish correction on heightened risk appetite. Reciprocal tariffs and purchase agreements between the US/China float in principal. USD/JPY has opened the week on the backfoot but has stablised above four-hour bullish moving averages, as well as the rising 21-DMA while risk appetite remains elevated despite some doubts over a recently agreed, in principle, a trade deal between the US and China. USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.35, flat between a narrow range of 109.24 and 109.38.  Trade deal hopes kept alive, fuelling the bid  USD/JPY and markets, in general, have been buoyed by the prospects of this being a turning point in an 18-month trade war between the US and China. Last week, it was confirmed that the US and China had reached another agreement on a ‘phase one’ deal. "Expectations from the US are that China will sign a formal document in the first week of January, however China have only stated that they will proceed for legal review and translation without touching on a timeline. Meanwhile, the details of the new trade deal appear to be a minor improvement on the details that the earlier ‘phase one’ deal had already agreed," analysts at ANZ Bank explained but also cautioned that a key difference, however, is that this deal is “fully-enforceable”, and concluded,  instead, that he announcement is a step in the right direction for the two nations, but does not completely reduce the chances of trade disputes between the two nations in the year ahead. The US has agreed to halve the tariffs on US$120bn of Chinese goods (from 15% to 7.5%) but will retain a 25% on US$250bn of Chinese imports. There have been no indications from the US that there will be a further rollback in tariffs in the future but the 15 December tariffs would not take effect. In exchange, China has agreed to purchase an additional US$16bn in goods from the US over the next two years, something already agreed in previous trade discussions.  USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that the daily chart for the USD/JPY pair is presenting a neutral-to-bullish stance, as it holds above all of its moving averages, while technical indicators stand within positive levels, although lacking directional strength. "The pair retreated after failing to surpass the December high at 109.72, somehow indicating that bulls still hesitate. In the shorter term, and according to the 4-hour chart, however, the bullish case is stronger, given that the pair is well above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing above the larger ones, while technical indicators settled well above their midlines, after correcting extreme overbought conditions."

New Zealand Business NZ PSI fell from previous 55.4 to 53.3 in November

Australia Economic And Fiscal Outlook: Sees Surplus Of A$6.1 Bln In 19/20, Down From A$11.0 Bln Seen in April Sees Underlying Cash Balance Of A$5.0 Bl

Australia Economic And Fiscal Outlook: Sees Surplus Of A$6.1 Bln In 19/20, Down From A$11.0 Bln Seen in April Sees Underlying Cash Balance Of A$5.0 Bln In 19/20 Lowers 19/20 GDP Estimate To 2.25% From 2.75% Lowers 19/20 Wage Growth Estimate To 2.50% From 2.75%  Sees Surplus Of A$6.1 Bln In 19/20, Down From A$11.0 Bln Seen in April Sees Underlying Cash Balance Of A$5.0 Bln In 19/20 Lowers 19/20 GDP Estimate To 2.25% From 2.75% Lowers 19/20 Wage Growth Estimate To 2.50% From 2.75% More to come

Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI registered at 49.5 above expectations (49.1) in December

Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI dipped from previous 49.7 to 49.4 in December

Australia Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI registered at 49.4, below expectations (50.4) in December

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