जोखिम की चेतावनी: सीएफडी जटिल इंस्ट्रूमेंट हैं जिनमें लीवरेज के कारण तेजी से धन गंवाने के भारी जोखिम हैं। इस प्रोवाईडर के साथ सीएफडी ट्रेडिंग करते समय 90% रिटेल इनवेस्टर अकाउंट धन गंवा बैठते हैं। आपको विचार करना होगा कि क्या आपको सीएफडी कार्यप्रणली की जानकारी है और क्या आप अपना धन गंवाने का भारी जोखिम ले सकते हैं।
जोखिम की चेतावनी: सीएफडी जटिल इंस्ट्रूमेंट हैं जिनमें लीवरेज के कारण तेजी से धन गंवाने के भारी जोखिम हैं। इस प्रोवाईडर के साथ सीएफडी ट्रेडिंग करते समय 90% रिटेल इनवेस्टर अकाउंट धन गंवा बैठते हैं। आपको विचार करना होगा कि क्या आपको सीएफडी कार्यप्रणली की जानकारी है और क्या आप अपना धन गंवाने का भारी जोखिम ले सकते हैं।
शुक्रवार , अप्रेल 19, 2019

The USD/CAD pair is moving sideways in a very narrow trading band on Friday as the market action stays subdued amid the Easter Holiday. As of writing,

Trading volume stays thin amid Good Friday.US Dollar Index looks to close the week with gains near 97.30.WTI struggles to pull away from the $64 handle.The USD/CAD pair is moving sideways in a very narrow trading band on Friday as the market action stays subdued amid the Easter Holiday. As of writing, the pair is virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 1.3370. Earlier this week, disappointing manufacturing sales figures and the dismal tone in the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey weighed on the loonie. In the second half of the week, upbeat retail sales figures and a slightly higher-than-expected core inflation growth helped the currency show some resilience against the greenback. On the other hand, crude oil remained relatively calm throughout the week with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate struggling to pull away from the $64 handle and failed to provide a directional clue to the commodity-sensitive CAD. On the other hand, the greenback took advantage of the risk-off flows on Thursday and allowed the US Dollar Index to stage a rebound beyond the 97 mark. The index is now on track to end the week around 0.5% higher. Next week, the Bank of Canada meeting the primary catalyst for the loonie. Previewing this event, "We look for the Bank of Canada to hold rates unchanged at 1.75%, but we except the MPR to include a 0.2 p.p. downgrade to 2019 GDP growth," said TD Securities analysts previewing the next BoC meeting," TD Securities analysts said. "We also look for additional dovish tweaks to the forward-looking language."Technical levels to consider 

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) settled the Good Friday trading week largely unchanged near the 64 handle, but remained within close proximity of the 2019

Upbeat Chinese/ US macro news, unexpected draw in US inventories drive oil higher. Technical set up suggests a correction in the near-term, a test of 63.00 likely?WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) settled the Good Friday trading week largely unchanged near the 64 handle, but remained within close proximity of the 2019 tops of $ 64.79. The overall sentiment around the black gold was buoyed by upbeat US earnings, better Chinese and US fundamentals and China’s stimulus talks. Meanwhile, the ongoing OPEC+ cuts combined with the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela continued to play its role in tightening the global supplies, in turn, keeping the prices supported. Moreover, the surprise drawdown in the US crude stockpiles data, as reported by the API and the official EIA data, also collaborated to the upbeat tone around the barrel of WTI.  Furthermore, the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell by 277,000 barrels to just under 7 million bpd in February from the month before. All in all, tightening supplies and receding fears of global economic slowdown leading to demand growth concerns continued to play out in favor of the oil bulls. Heading into the next week, markets gear up for a potential corrective slide, as indicated by the near-term technical set up. WTI is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the short-term.WTI Technical Levels 

The bulls lack further momentum in the European session, sending the EUR/USD pair back into the familiar range between 1.1240-50 levels, as they await

Thin liquidity and no macro drivers keep the recovery in check. USD index retreats from 2-week highs on Mueller’s report.Consolidation mod to extend ahead of US housing data. The bulls lack further momentum in the European session, sending the EUR/USD pair back into the familiar range between 1.1240-50 levels, as they await the US housing sector data for some trading impetus amid Easter holiday-thinned quiet trading. The spot attempted a tepid bounce from the weekly lows of 1.1227 after the Euro got hammered across the board on disappointing German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI numbers that re-ignited Euro area growth concerns. Adding to the downside in EUR/USD, the US dollar caught a fresh bid-wave across the board on above-forecast US retail sales data. The macro data divergence between the Eurozone and the US continues to remain in favor of the USD bulls. Looking ahead, the recovery attempt in the pair, courtesy of broad USD pullback on Mueller’s report, appear shallow, as the technically the pair remains exposed to the downside risks, with the yearly lows at 1.1177 seen as the next likely target. More so, the recent in-fighting within the Italian government over the graft scandal could also weigh negatively on the shared currency and keep the upside attempts limited. Italy’s Di Maio: Italy's League threatening to bring down governmentMeanwhile, markets eagerly await the US housing starts and building permit data to bring some life to the otherwise Good Friday holiday-thinned/ data-dry trading session.EUR/USD Technical Levels 

Italian Deputy Prime Minister and the coalition party, the 5-Star Movement, leader Luigi Di Maio was on the wires this Friday, via Reuters, noting tha

Italian Deputy Prime Minister and the coalition party, the 5-Star Movement, leader Luigi Di Maio was on the wires this Friday, via Reuters, noting that Italy’s League is threatening to bring down the government over a graft scandal involving one of its senior politicians. Di Maio said on Facebook: “...even today the League is threatening to bring down the government ... I’m really stunned”.

China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reports that China’s ruling Communist Party’s top decision-making body met earlier today, with the country’s curren

China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reports that China’s ruling Communist Party’s top decision-making body met earlier today, with the country’s current economic situation at the top of the agenda. The Chinese President Xi Jinping chaired the politburo meeting, but the details of the meeting are not available, Xinhua adds.

Reuters is out with its latest poll of 17 economists on the Bank of Japan’s likely monetary policy stance next week and also on Japanese March factory

Reuters is out with its latest poll of 17 economists on the Bank of Japan’s likely monetary policy stance next week and also on Japanese March factory data, with the key findings found below. “The BOJ will retain its massive stimulus as well as the short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1 percent, while also maintaining its pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around zero percent at its April 24-25 meeting. The BOJ is expected to forecast next week that inflation will remain below its 2 percent target through the fiscal year that ends in March 2022, sources say. The central bank is also seen sticking to its view that Japan’s economy will emerge from a soft patch and resume a moderate expansion in the second half of 2019. Factories have been under strain in the past few months, and the poll forecast industrial production to have slipped 0.1 percent in March from the previous month after it rose 0.7 percent in February. Data on the nation’s retail sector is projected to show sales rising 0.8 percent last month from a year earlier, the poll found, accelerating from a 0.4 percent increase in February.”

Reuters reports the latest comments delivered by Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to the Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih, an oil summit in Paris on Frida

Reuters reports the latest comments delivered by Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to the Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih, an oil summit in Paris on Friday.Key Quotes:The oil market to be “well balanced” this year. “This year, we have seen the implementation of the OPEC Plus decision. It is possible to extend the cut until the end of the year depending on market conditions.”

The USDJPY pair extends its side-tend into the European session, wavering back and forth in a 10-pips extremely narrow range just below the 112 handle

Yen little moved despite BOJ bond buying cut, better Japanese CPI.Markets await a range break out, US housing data unlikely to help.The USDJPY pair extends its side-tend into the European session, wavering back and forth in a 10-pips extremely narrow range just below the 112 handle. A tug of war between the bulls and bears continue tor the sixth straight session, despite some volatility witnessed a day before after the Yen hit fresh weekly lows at 111.76 against its American peer following the disappointing German and Eurozone PMIs induced broad risk-aversion. The spot pulled back sharply from the weekly trough and reverted to the familiar ranges near the 112 level following upbeat US retail sales data release the lifted the US stocks alongside the greenback across its main competitors. On the JPY-side of the equation, a minor uptick in the Japanese CPI figures combined with the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to cut the purchases of the long duration JGBs failed to move a needle on the USD/JPY pair. “Japan’s March month national consumer price index (CPI) (YoY) matched expectations of 0.5% increase versus 0.2% earlier while national CPI ex-fresh food, also known as national core CPI, ticked up from 0.7% forecast and prior to 0.8%. It should also be noted that national CPI ex-food and energy remained unchanged at 0.4%,” Anil Panchal, FXStreet’s Analyst noted. Further, the spot holds steady ahead of the 10-day Golden Week holidays, in anticipation of huge JPY flows, as markets resort to repositioning heading into the shutdown. Looking ahead, the pair will continues its flat action amid holiday-thinned quiet trades and the US housing data is also likely to have little impact on the Yen pair, as markets await a strong catalyst for the 112.15-111.75 range break out.  USD/JPY Technical Levels 

Greece Current Account (YoY) increased to €-0.99B in February from previous €-1.183B

Italy Business Confidence came in at 100.6, below expectations (100.7) in April

Italy Consumer Confidence below forecasts (111.2) in April: Actual (110.5)

Koichi Hagiuda, acting Secretary-General of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), came out on the wires on Friday, clarifying th

Koichi Hagiuda, acting Secretary-General of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), came out on the wires on Friday, clarifying that he was merely expressing his “personal opinion” and did not mean to object to the tax hike which he did not discuss with Abe. However, he stressed the need to closely watch the upcoming tankan and other indicators to gauge the strength of the economy, Reuters reports. On Thursday, the Japanese news agency, Kyodo News quoted Hagiuda, as saying that an October sales tax hike may be delayed depending on the Japanese economic data in coming months.

The AUD/USD pair picked up fresh bids and broke its Asian range trade to the upside, clinching fresh session highs near 0.7160 region, as the US dolla

DXY eases, helps the Aussie recovery. But upside appears limited amid bearish technical bias and thin trades. Focus shifts to US housing data for fresh trading impetus. The AUD/USD pair picked up fresh bids and broke its Asian range trade to the upside, clinching fresh session highs near 0.7160 region, as the US dollar extends its pullback from two-week tops against its major rivals after the Mueller report revealed the US President Trump actions to impede the inquiry. The greenback rallied to the highest levels since end-March at 97.48 after the US March retail sales report showed that the American consumer spending witnessed the fastest expansion in 18 months. The recent slew of upbeat US fundamentals quelled concerns over a slowing US economy and collaborated to the broad USD strength. However, the further upside appears to lack follow-through amid Easter holiday-thinned trades and a lack of fresh catalysts while the technical indicators continue to back the case for the downside bias. In the day ahead, the spot will continue to get influenced by the sentiment around the US dollar, as attention turns towards the US housing starts and building permits data due later today at 1230 GMT. Note that the US data is likely to have limited impact on the dollar trades, as most traders are already out on a 4-day Easter holiday season.AUD/USD Technical Levels 

According to sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, the Venezuelan President Maduro is sifting cashflow from Venezuelan oil sales through Russian

According to sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, the Venezuelan President Maduro is sifting cashflow from Venezuelan oil sales through Russian state energy giant Rosneft. Maduro seeks to evade the US sanctions designed to oust him from power “The sources said some of the money was flowing via Russian-Venezuelan bank Evrofinance Mosnarbank, which was placed under U.S. sanctions last month. A spokesperson for Evrofinance denied such transactions had passed through the bank,” Reuters reports. It’s worth noting that oil accounts for more than 90% of exports from the OPEC nation.

Good Friday/ Easter holiday sleep mode trading seeped into the Asian markets, as Australian, New Zealand and Hong Kong markets were closed. Rest of th

Good Friday/ Easter holiday sleep mode trading seeped into the Asian markets, as Australian, New Zealand and Hong Kong markets were closed. Rest of the Asian equity markets traded mixed amid a lack of fresh catalysts and thin liquidity.  Across the fx space, the Japanese Yen failed to react to a minor uptick in the Japanese CPI figures and also ignored the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) routine bond market operation. Therefore, the USD/JPY pair stuck to its tight range just under the 112 handle. Both the Antipodeans remained on the front foot amid stalled USD buying across the board but held on to the familiar ranges. The Aussie consolidated the minor bounce near 0.7150 while the Kiwi remained capped below the 0.67 handle. The EUR/USD pair regained the bids near 1.1240 region while the Cable circled around the 1.3000 level despite strong UK retail sales report.Main Topics in AsiaUS Pres. Trump: Russia did not affect 2016 US presidential election - Twitter US ITC: USMCA trade deal would raise US GDP by 0.35% Gold Technical Analysis: Eyes corrective bounce on bullish 4H RSI divergence USD/JPY seesaws around 112.00 as Japan National CPI matched expectations Labour MPs to urge Jeremy Corbyn not to 'torpedo' Brexit deal - The Guardian Saudi Arabia’s oil exports fall below 7 million Bpd in February BOJ trims long duration JGB purchases by JPY 20 billion PBOC sets yuan reference rate at 6.7043 Japan’s Suga: Japan will invite US President Trump to visit Japan May 25-28 Japan’s Aso: No change of plan to raise sales taxKey Focus AheadThe Good Friday European calendar remains data-empty as all the major European markets are closed today, except for the Italian markets. Therefore, the EUR, GBP traders could look forward to the Italian business and consumer confidence figures due at 0800 GMT for some trading incentives. Meanwhile, the NA docket remains a thin-showing, with the US housing starts and building permits only of note, dropping in at 1230 GMT. The US data is unlikely to have any impact on the dollar trades, as the US and Canadian markets are out on a four-day Easter holiday break, leaving quiet trading across the fx board until Tuesday. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bid in holiday-thinned trade, bullish channel breakdown confirmed The repeated failure to close above 1.13 followed by the bullish channel breakdown indicates the path of least resistance is now to the downside and the recent lows near 1.1170 could soon come into play.  GBP/USD: On the defensive despite strong UK retail sales The path of least resistance for the GBP/USD appears to be on the downside. The British Pound slipped below 1.30 and closed under the April 5 low of 1.2987 yesterday, validating the bearish lower high of 1.3133 created last Friday. USD/TRY: One to watch The long weekend is fast approaching, and traders are slowly winding down. So, I won’t waste your time with a lengthy report. But I just came across this chart of the USD/TRY, which you may want to keep in your watch list.   

The US President Trump wrote on his official Twiiter account late-Thursday, "Anything the Russians did concerning the 2016 Election was done while Oba

The US President Trump wrote on his official Twiiter account late-Thursday, "Anything the Russians did concerning the 2016 Election was done while Obama was President. He was told about it and did nothing! Most importantly, the vote was not affected". This came after A report by US Attorney General William Burr published on March 24 has confirmed that there was no collusion between Moscow and Donald Trump's presidential campaign, as reported by TASS, the Russian news agency.

EUR/JPY fell 0.67 percent yesterday, the biggest single-day decline since March 22, neutralizing the bullish view put forward by the falling channel b

EUR/JPY fell 0.67 percent yesterday, the biggest single-day decline since March 22, neutralizing the bullish view put forward by the falling channel breakout on April 12.  With the shape slide, the pair has inched very close to 125.60, which is the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 123.65 to 126.81. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fib retracements are widely considered as strong technical levels by traders.  A break below 125.60, therefore, could invite selling pressure, leading to a deeper drop to 124.78 (April 10 low).  A close above 126.81 is needed to revive the bullish outlook. As of writing, the pair is trading at 125.75, having clocked a session high of 125.85 earlier today. The Bank of Japan trimmed its routine purchases of long-dated bonds today, so far, the central bank's move has not had any impact on the JPY pairs. Daily chartTrend: Bearish below 125.60  

The BMO Capital Markets analysts are out with their afterthoughts on the surprise jump in the Canadian inflation, highlighting the unexpected change.

The BMO Capital Markets analysts are out with their afterthoughts on the surprise jump in the Canadian inflation, highlighting the unexpected change.Key Quotes:"After being stable and mild -- bizarrely mild -- for years, the rent component of the Canadian CPI is suddenly blasting higher. A change in StatsCan's methodology (i.e., moving somewhat closer to reality) has led to a sudden acceleration. After averaging just 1.2% annualized gains over the past 15 years, rents have jumped 2.7% y/y. That's the biggest rise in this component since 1992, and we're likely headed much higher, since the six-month trend is 4%."

The path of least resistance for the GBP/USD appears to be on the downside. The British Pound slipped below 1.30 and closed under the April 5 low of 1

GBP/USD fell below 1.30 yesterday despite the big beat on the UK retail sales. US retail sales also bettered estimates, sending the dollar higher against most majors. Sterling could be headed lower to 1.29, having created another bearish lower high last week. The path of least resistance for the GBP/USD appears to be on the downside.  The British Pound slipped below 1.30 and closed under the April 5 low of 1.2987 yesterday, validating the bearish lower high of 1.3133 created last Friday. Notably, that is the third bearish lower in the last four weeks.  The bearish move happened despite the upbeat UK data - consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose 1.1 percent in March, smashing expectations of a negative print.  While Sterling failed to pick up a strong bid, the greenback found takers on the back of upbeat US retail sales report. Consumer spending rose 1.6% in March, the strongest pace of growth since September 2017, beating the consensus forecast was for a 1% rise. The previous month's print was also revised higher.  As a result, cable suffered a bearish close below 1.2987. Sterling's inability to cheer strong UK data, coupled with the bearish close below 1.30 indicates scope for a deeper drop to 1.29 - the lower edge of the falling wedge pattern seen on the daily chart. The drop will likely happen in the first half of the next week and the will likely trade comatose today as major FX trading hubs are closed on account of Good Friday holiday.  The outlook would turn bullish if the falling wedge is breached to the higher side. As of writing, the pair is trading at1.2990, representing marginal gains on the day, while the falling wedge resistance is seen at 1.3080. Technical Levels 

A separate Reuters poll of Japanese companies showed on Friday, a majority of them with links to the UK said that they do not have immediate plans to

A separate Reuters poll of Japanese companies showed on Friday, a majority of them with links to the UK said that they do not have immediate plans to break their ties with the country and await the UK government to hammer out terms of its exit from the European Union (EU).Key Highlights:“Many said they would take a “wait-and-see” stance toward Brexit.  89 percent of companies with business links to Britain said they would make no change in their operations and 3 percent are actually considering expanding business in the country. Some 8 percent planned to downsize business operations in Britain, but none of the companies surveyed planned to leave the country, the April 3-15 survey showed. The Reuters Corporate Survey, conducted monthly for Reuters by Nikkei Research, polled 478 large and mid-sized firms with managers responding on condition of anonymity. Around 240 answered the questions on Brexit. Of those, 61 said they had business links to the United Kingdom, and responded to more detailed questions about Brexit.”

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was reported by Reuters, as saying that there is no change in the government’s plan in proceeding with the October

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was reported by Reuters, as saying that there is no change in the government’s plan in proceeding with the October sales tax hike, barring a big economic shock on the scale of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. On Tuesday, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga clarified there is no change to the government view on raising sales tax after Kyodo News reported that Japan could delay the October sales tax hike.

The AUD/USD pair extends its consolidative phase near the midpoint of the 0.71 handle, having stalled its overnight minor bounce, in the wake of Easte

Holiday-thinned markets, US dollar pullback keep the Aussie side-lined.Technical set up remains in favor of the bears. US housing data unlikely to offer any fresh trading impetus. The AUD/USD pair extends its consolidative phase near the midpoint of the 0.71 handle, having stalled its overnight minor bounce, in the wake of Easter holiday-thinned trades and a lack of fresh catalysts.   The spot managed to recover some ground from two-day lows of 0.7136 reached after the US dollar rallied hard across its main competitors following a big beat on the US retail sales data that eased concerns over the US economic slowdown. Bullish US data offset the strong Australian jobs report, and hence, the Aussie reversed the entire rally fuelled by the Australian data to the 0.7200 level. Despite the recent bounce, the major remains exposed to further downside risks in the near-term, as the technical set up suggests a bearish bias, especially after “the Aussie pair confirmed the “rising wedge” bearish technical formation on Thursday when it slipped beneath the pattern support, at 0.7160 now. With this, the quote is likely to extend its south-run towards 0.7070. Though, an ascending trend-line stretched since early March might offer strong intermediate support at 0.7085,” as explained by FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal. Looking ahead, thin liquidity and minimal volatility could exaggerate the moves and the pair could test the 0.7100 support if the US dollar resumes its recent upside heading into the US housing starts and building permits data due later today. The data is likely to have limited impact on the markets.AUD/USD Technical Levels 

USD/CNH has again created a long-tailed weekly candle – a sign of seller exhaustion near 6.67. The pair, therefore, may find acceptance above the key

USD/CNH has again created a long-tailed weekly candle – a sign of seller exhaustion near 6.67.  The pair, therefore, may find acceptance above the key 50-day MA hurdle next week. That move could pave the way for a rally to the double bottom neckline resistance of 6.75. As of writing, the spot is trading at 6.7028, down 0.08 percent on the day, and the 50-day moving average is seen at 6.7206.Weekly chartAs seen above, the pair has created a long-tailed doji this week, the third in eight weeks. Notably, the three long-tailed candles have printed lows near 6.67, a sign of bearish exhaustion.  As a result, the spot could see a corrective bounce next week, more so, if the long-held 50-day MA resistance is breached.Daily chartAs seen above, the 50-day MA has capped upside at least four times in the last three weeks.  Hence, acceptance above that key MA hurdle, currently at 6.7206, would validate the long-tailed candles seen on the weekly chart and open the doors to 6.7292 (double bottom neckline).  The bullish case, however, would weaken if the spot finds acceptance below 6.67.Trend: Cautiously bullish  

EUR/USD is mildly bid in Asia, but the gains could be short-lived, as yesterday’s sell-off seems to have put sellers in commanding position for the ne

EUR/USD is mildly bid in Asia, but the gains could be short-lived, as yesterday’s sell-off seems to have put sellers in commanding position for the near term.  As of writing, the pair is trading at the session high of 1.1241, having hit lows near 1.1260 earlier today. The shared currency fell more than 70 pips yesterday, confirming a downside break of the rising channel. Daily chartThe repeated failure to close above 1.13 followed by the bullish channel breakdown indicates the path of least resistance is now to the downside and the recent lows near 1.1170 could soon come into play.  The sell-off, however, may not happen today, as trading volumes will remain thin on account of the Good Friday holiday in major FX trading hubs in Europe and the US. Trend: Bearish  

According to a Reuters monthly poll, a majority of the Japanese companies want the Japanese authorities to go ahead with the October sales tax hike, b

According to a Reuters monthly poll, a majority of the Japanese companies want the Japanese authorities to go ahead with the October sales tax hike, but at the same time, call on the government to boost stimulus measures in effort to soften the blow on the economy.Key Findings:“About 80 percent of companies surveyed say authorities should go ahead with the hike, the poll showed. Some 18 percent said no extra stimulus was needed, but 61 percent said additional steps are necessary. Just 21 percent said the planned tax increase should be scrapped altogether, according to the April 3-15 survey. Some respondents said boosting government spending defeats the point of the tax hike. Others expressed concern that the tax hike would undermine Japan’s economic growth, which is already weak. The Reuters Corporate Survey, conducted monthly for Reuters by Nikkei Research, polled 478 large and mid-sized firms with managers responding on condition of anonymity. About 230 firms answered the questions on the sales tax issue.”

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga was on the wires now earlier today, via Reuters, confirming that the Japanese government will invite the US Pres

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga was on the wires now earlier today, via Reuters, confirming that the Japanese government will invite the US President Donald Trump to visit Japan from May 25th to 28th. On Thursday, it was reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with the US President Donald Trump at the White House on April 26th to discuss on trade and North Korean nuclear programme.

USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 111.93, having clocked a 112.00 earlier today. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) cut its purchases of bonds with maturities

BOJ has trimmed purchases of long-dated government bonds. The routine operation has failed to move the needle on USD/JPY. The pair is flat lined below 112.00, having failed to pick up a strong bid yesterday despite the upbeat US data.USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 111.93, having clocked a 112.00 earlier today.  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) cut its purchases of bonds with maturities between 10 and 25 years to ¥160 billion, down ¥20 billion from the previous ¥180 billion.  The central bank has also trimmed purchases of bonds with maturities between 25 and 40 years to ¥40 billion from ¥50 billion previous.  The central bank’s decision to trim bond purchases is a part of its routine operations to keep the benchmark yield near zero levels. The BOJ steps up purchases when there is upward pressure on yields and trims purchases when the yields are feeling the pull of gravity.   The routine move, therefore, has had a little positive impact on the anti-risk Japanese yen. The dollar too has failed to pick up a strong bid in response to strong US economic data released yesterday. The consumer spending, as represented by March retail sales, rose 1.6%, which was the strongest pace of growth since September 2017. Further, spending may remain strong in the near future as the jobless claims have hit a 50-year low.  Looking forward, the spot may remain flatlined below 112.00 amid low trading volumes on account of Good Friday Holiday across Europe and in the US. Technical Levels 

In the overnight trades, Reuters reported key headlines from a report published by the US International Trade Commission (ITC) on a potential United S

In the overnight trades, Reuters reported key headlines from a report published by the US International Trade Commission (ITC) on a potential United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).Key Findings:USMCA trade deal will increase US employment by 176K jobs. US imports from Canada and Mexico to climb $31.5B. US exports to Canada and Mexico to climb $33.3B. Sees higher US auto prices.

USD/CAD witnesses pullback during early Good Friday as increase in crude prices trimmed previous gained backed by the US data.

Increase in crude prices triggered the pullback during thin trading on early Good Friday.1.3405 keeps acting as an immediate resistance with 100-day SMA standing as nearby support.USD/CAD is taking the rounds near 1.3370 during early Friday. The Loonie refrains from extending earlier recovery backed by the US data as the latest news reports fuelled prices of oil, Canada’s largest export item. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened across the board on Thursday after the US March month retail sales registered upbeat growth numbers. As a result, more than expected numbers of Canadian retail sales couldn’t gain market attention. During initial Friday for Asian markets, crude prices increased based on geopolitical problems at Libya and supply crunch signals emanating from Baker Hughes rig counts and Saudi export data. While the decline in weekly reading of Baker Hughes US oil rig counts and third straight dip in Saudi Arabia’s monthly oil export numbers portrayed supply crunch, Reuters’ report of hostilities at suburban parts of the Libyan capital Tripoli highlighted geopolitical tension and supported the energy benchmark. Looking forward, investors may well concentrate on the news report as the economic calendar is silent due to Good Friday holidays at major economies.USD/CAD Technical AnalysisIn addition to 1.3405, a downward sloping trend-line since March 07, at 1.3440, can also restrict near-term upside of the quote, a break of which may encourage buyers to aim for March month highs near 1.3470 ahead of looking to 1.3510 resistance level. Meanwhile, 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3330 and 50-day SMA around 1.3315 can entertain short-term traders whereas 1.3280 and 1.3240 may flash on the radar afterward.

The People’s Bank of China set the yuan reference rate at 6.7043 vs the previous day’s fix of 6.6911.

The People’s Bank of China set the yuan reference rate at 6.7043 vs the previous day’s fix of 6.6911.  

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has cut the amount of bond purchases at the long end of the Japanese government bnond yield curve. The central bank is set to

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has cut the amount of bond purchases at the long end of the Japanese government bnond yield curve.  The central bank is set to buy JPY 160 billion worth of bonds maturing in 10 to 25 years today, down from the previous purchase of JPY 180 billion. Further, it will buy JPY 40 billion worth of bonds set to expirein 25-40 years – down from the previous JPY 50 billion.  The reduction in bond purchases is the part of routine operations and does not qualify as QE taper. 

Saudi Arabia slashed its oil exports for third straight month in February, a sign the Kingdom is keeping its pledge to reduce supplies to the market a

Saudi Arabia slashed its oil exports for third straight month in February, a sign the Kingdom is keeping its pledge to reduce supplies to the market as agreed in the OPEC+ output cut deal.  Saudi oil exports stood at 6.977 million barrels per day (Bpd) in February, following exports of 7.254 million Bpd in January and 7.687 million Bpd in December, according to the data published by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) database. 
 

Early Thursday, The Guardian said that Jeremy Corbyn is to be urged by a group of Labour MPs not to “torpedo” the Brexit deal.

Early Thursday, The Guardian came out with a news report saying that Jeremy Corbyn is to be urged by a group of Labour MPs not to “torpedo” the prospect of a Brexit deal with Theresa May by insisting on a second referendum. The MPs, including Stephen Kinnock and Gloria De Piero, are set to send the Labour leader a letter early next week setting out their “deep-seated reservations about a second referendum”, which they believe would be “divisive but … not decisive”, the report further said. It should be noted that the UK parliaments are on recess till April 23 due to Easter holidays. As a result, members of the parliaments (MPs) could take their Brexit matters forward only after Tuesday.

Gold snapped its five-day winning streak with a 0.19 percent gain on Thursday, confirming a bullish divergence of the relative strength index on the 4

Gold snapped its five-day winning streak with a 0.19 percent gain on Thursday, confirming a bullish divergence of the relative strength index on the 4-hour and hourly charts. 4-hour chartAs seen above, the RSI carved out a higher low yesterday as opposed to a new lower low on price and has found acceptance above 30.00.  The bullish divergence indicates scope for a corrective bounce to $1,280-$1,285 resistance zone in the first half of the next week.  The divergence, however, would fail if the price finds acceptance under the previous day’s low of $1,270.  As of writing, the yellow metal is changing hands at $1,275 per Oz. Trend: Corrective bounce  

Having slipped beneath 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month decline, the EUR/JPY pair presently trades near 125.80 during early Friday.

Having slipped beneath 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month decline, the EUR/JPY pair presently trades near 125.80 during early Friday. Even after declining under 126.00 support (now resistance), the quote is yet to breakdown three-week-old upward sloping trend-line at 125.50 which if broken would confirm ascending triangle break and could fetch prices to 125.00 – 124.95 support-zone. It should also be noted that 125.40 can act as immediate support whereas 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 124.55, followed by 124.55 and 123.80 rest-points, may please sellers after 124.95. Alternatively, pair’s advances past-126.00 nearby resistance comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level might aim for 126.30 ahead of the 126.80 horizontal-line connecting highs marked since March 20. Moreover, sustained trading beyond 126.80 opens the door for the quote’s gradual increases to 127.00, 127.15 and then to 127.50 numbers to the north.EUR/JPY Technical AnalysisTrend: Pullback expected  

GBP/JPY remains under its ascending triangle breakdown area as it trades near 145.50 during early Friday.

GBP/JPY remains under its ascending triangle breakdown area as it trades near 145.50 during early Friday.  Pair’s break of three-week of upward sloping trend-line confirmed short-term ascending triangle break on Thursday, which in turn signals further downside to 144.85 and 144.60. However, 144.80/70 region comprising lows marked since February 22 could restrict the quote’s declines past-144.60, if not then 143.00 and 142.50 should gain bears’ attention. On the flipside, pair’s break of 145.70 support-turned-resistance can help it challenge 146.30 ahead of confronting 147.00 mark including multiple highs and low since March 18 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of February 15 to March 14 upside. If prices rally beyond 147.00, 147.50, 148.10 and 148.55 can offer intermediate halts during the rise towards March month high near 148.85.GBP/JPY 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

USD/JPY trades near 112.00 during early Friday after Japan’s headline inflation number matched estimations with core figure beating the forecasts.

Japan national CPI matched 0.5% forecasts whereas core CPI crossed market expectations.Geopolitical news reports may gain more attention due to lack of economics on hand and Good Friday holidays at major markets.USD/JPY trades near 112.00 during early Friday after Japan’s headline inflation number matched estimations with core figure beating the forecasts. Japan’s March month national consumer price index (CPI) (YoY) matched expectations of 0.5% increase versus 0.2% earlier while national CPI ex-fresh food, also known as national core CPI, ticked up from 0.7% forecast and prior to 0.8%. It should also be noted that national CPI ex-food and energy remained unchanged at 0.4%. Even after recovering most of the losses on the back of upbeat retail sales print by the US, the USD/JPY pair remained on the downside as investors chose to avoid taking risks ahead of the long weekend including Good Friday break. It can also be said that geopolitical news reports from North Korea and Libya also supported safe-havens. With the Japanese markets open amid close at various global bourses, traders may observe developments surrounding Japan and risk-on for fresh impulse as the economic calendar is silent for the rest of the day.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisUnless clearing the region between 111.80 and 112.15 comprising highs marked Since March 05, lesser moves are expected to take place. In case of a downside break, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 111.55, followed by 111.30 and 111.00, could please sellers ahead of challenging them with 100-day SMA level near 110.80. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 112.15 can escalate the quote to 112.30 but a downward sloping trend-line since October 2018 may question the bulls around 112.85 which if broken could print 113.20 and 113.80 on the chart.

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) remains at 0.4% in March

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (0.5%) in March

Hostilities in Libya regained the spotlight as a recent report from Reuters suggests that the mortar bombs caused problems in Tripoli.

Hostilities in Libya regained the spotlight as a recent report from Reuters suggests that the mortar bombs caused problems in the suburban area of the capital Tripoli. The report further said that the bombs crashed down after almost hitting a clinic and adding to people’s suffering after two weeks of an offensive by eastern troops on the Libyan capital, which is held by an internationally recognised government. Shelling could be also heard late at night in parts of Tripoli, residents said. No more details were immediately available. Libya is one of the important crude oil producers as it is a part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) group. Hence, any geopolitical challenges to the country could be positive for crude prices.

The AUD/JPY is on the bids near 80.10 during early Friday when a major chunk of the global traders are off celebrating Good Friday except in China and Japan.

Good Friday recess at the global trading front except for China and Japan highlights AUD/JPY moves.Japan’s inflation numbers will be the key to watch for fresh impulse.The AUD/JPY is on the bids near 80.10 during early Friday when a major chunk of the global traders are off celebrating Good Friday except in China and Japan. As a result, investors may emphasize on the upcoming inflation reading from Japan in order to determine near-term trade sentiment. Thursday’s Australian employment numbers couldn’t help the AUD much as doubts over the future rate cuts from Australia’s largest consumer, China, raised by China’s securities journal indicated economic pressure at home. Adding to the AUD/JPY pair’s weakness could be KCNA report signaling North Korea’s test of tactical weapons, which in turn could further sour the hermit kingdom’s relations with the US. Looking forward, March month national consumer price index (CPI) numbers from Japan will be the key. The National CPI is expected to increase to 0.5% from 0.2% on a yearly basis while the national CPI ex-fresh food, also referred to as National core CPI, may remain unchanged at 0.7% YoY.AUD/JPY Technical AnalysisIn spite of slipping beneath 200-day simple moving average (SMA), recent lows near 79.90 and February month highs near 79.80 could challenge sellers, if not then 79.60, 79.40 and 100-day SMA level of 79.10 may gain market attention. Meanwhile, pair’s break of 80.20 level comprising 200-day SMA may recall 80.50 and 80.70 back on the chart whereas 81.00 and 81.20 may please buyers then after.

AUD/USD confirms rising wedge at the start of Good Friday trading holiday for the majority of the global markets except for China and Japan.

AUD/USD is on the bids near 0.7150 at the start of Good Friday trading holiday for the majority of the global markets except for China and Japan. The Aussie pair confirmed the “rising wedge” bearish technical formation on Thursday when it slipped beneath the pattern support, at 0.7160 now. With this, the quote is likely to extend its south-run towards 0.7070. Though, an ascending trend-line stretched since early March might offer strong intermediate support at 0.7085. In addition to 0.7085, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of February to March downturn near 0.7130 and 0.7110 can also entertain sellers. Assuming the quote’s extended downside past 0.7070, 0.7040 and March month low near 0.7000 can come back on the chart. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 0.7160 support-turned-resistance opens the gate for the pair’s recovery toward 0.7180 and 0.7210 numbers to the north. However, an upward sloping trend-line since March 27 at 0.7220 and another resistance-line joining highs since March 01 at 0.7240 can question buyers past-0.7210.AUD/USD 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

NZD/USD clings to 0.6685 during early Friday with most global markets closed due to Good Friday recess.

NZD/USD clings to 0.6685 during early Friday with most global markets closed due to Good Friday recess. The quote’s sustained dip beneath 0.6710 – 0.6700 horizontal-support comprising lows market since January 08 highlights the importance of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October – December upswing, at 0.6630. However, 0.6650 may act as an intermediate halt. Should prices slip under 0.6630, 0.6600, 0.6585 and 0.6570 could flash on the Bears’ radar whereas 0.6510 and 0.6490 could challenge them afterward. Alternatively, a successful break of 0.6710 becomes necessary for the pair to aim for 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.6735 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 0.6760. If buyers manage to conquer 0.6760, 0.6780 and 0.6800-0.6805 area including 50-day and 100-day SMAs could become next landmarks for them.NZD/USD daily chartTrend: Bearish  

Forex market very well observed upbeat prints of the US retail sales and remained volatile on Thursday.

Strong print of the US retail sales contrast to weak Eurozone data strengthened market favor for the greenback.Good Friday to hit the market moves but Japan can offer intermediate push.Forex market very well observed upbeat prints of the US retail sales and remained volatile on Thursday with the US Dollar (USD) being the largest gainer and the Euro (EUR) standing on the other end. Adding to the greenback strength could also be Robert Mueller’s report whereas UK retail sales could do little to please the British Pound (GBP). Wall Street portrayed the US optimism while risk-aversion was also present ahead of the long weekend starting with the Good Friday break. The US monthly retail sales for March grew strongest in seven months and even surpassed the upbeat forecasts as it registered a 1.6% expansion over +0.9% market consensus and -0.2% prior. Details suggest that retail sales control group rose 1.0% versus +0.4% expectations and revised -0.3% previous whereas retail sales ex-autos, also known as Core retail sales, increased 1.2% compared to +0.7% forecast and -0.2% (revised) earlier readout. In addition to the US retail sales, the publication of the full report turning down the probe that the Trump administration conspired with Russia in the 2016 Presidential election also played its role in fuelling the USD strength. Alternatively, sluggish prints of the Eurozone and German purchasing manager index (PMIs) were weighing heavily on the EUR whereas JPY and Gold managed to confront the USD strength as global investors preferred risk-off ahead of long weekend. Adding to the risk-aversion could be the KCNA news report that North Korea tested new tactical weapons. The Australian Dollar (AUD) couldn’t hold the gains from upbeat employment data whereas the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) followed the suit without much to read. Wall Street also took advantage of the US data and ended in the green, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) marking nearly 0.4% gains whereas S&P500 being 0.16% up with a small uptick in Nasdaq. Adding to the optimism were positive earnings report from Caterpillar and American Express. The US 10-year treasury yields dropped three basis points to 2.56% from 2.59% portraying market risk aversion ahead of Easter holidays. Looking forward, most of the global markets are closed due to the Good Friday but Japan will buck the trend and remain open. Traders may follow Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) details for March. The national CPI is likely to increase to 0.5% from 0.5% on YoY whereas national CPI ex-fresh food, better known as core CPI, may remain unchanged at 0.7% on a yearly basis.Key Notes:EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro bears having a Good Breakout before Good Friday GBP/USD breaks below 1.3000 to a 20-day low amid a stronger US Dollar US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Greenback bulls finally decided to show up as DXY hits 97.50 level Wall Street heads into the long weekend on a high note

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). As discussed yesterday, EUR/USD dropped to the 1

EUR/USD daily chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).As discussed yesterday, EUR/USD dropped to the 1.1250 target and pushed almost to 1.1220 support.EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the medium-term.EUR/USD 30-minute chartEUR/USD is set to consolidate the recent drop on Good Friday.The market can be limited by 1.1220 support with a potential test of 1.1250/60 to the upside.Additional key levels 

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) rose from previous 0.1% to 0.3% in March

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) rose from previous -0.2% to 0.1% in March

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