Avvertenza di rischio: Il trading in CFD è rischioso e può portare alla perdita del capitale investito. Assicurati di aver compreso i rischi connessi e non investire più di quanto sei disposto a perdere. Leggi tutta l’Informativa sui rischi. ForexTime Ltd è regolamentata dalla CySEC con numero di autorizzazione 185/12.
Avvertenza di rischio: Il tuo capitale è a rischio. Ti offriamo la protezione contro saldi negativi.
Il tuo capitale è a rischio. Ti offriamo la protezione contro saldi negativi.

Cronologia Forex News

mercoledì, gennaio 17, 2018

   •  Goodish USD rebound prompts heavy profit-taking.     •  Final EZ CPI print does little to influence the momentum.    •  US manufacturing data

   •  Goodish USD rebound prompts heavy profit-taking. 
   •  Final EZ CPI print does little to influence the momentum.
   •  US manufacturing data eyed for some trading impetus. The EUR/USD pair extended its retracement from fresh 3-year highs and has now moved on the verge of breaking below the 1.2200 handle. A fresh leg of upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields remained supportive of the shallow US Dollar bounce and has been one of the key factors behind the pair's sharp retracement of around 120-pips from levels beyond the 1.2300 handle. The bearish fall could also be attributed to some cross-driven weakness, with the EUR/GBP cross facing rejection near the 0.8900 handle (100-day SMA) and exerting heavy downward pressure on the core pair.   Meanwhile, the market had a rather muted reaction to today's mostly in-line final EZ CPI print, with the latest German political breakdown, accompanied with the recent jawboning by ECB policymakers, dampening sentiment surrounding the shared currency. Next on tap would be the release of industrial production and capacity utilization data from the US, which would be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus.Technical levels to watchA convincing break through the 1.2200 handle is likely to accelerate the slide towards 1.2125 intermediate support en-route the 1.2100 handle and 1.2085-80 strong horizontal support. On the upside, any up-move might now confront fresh supply near the 1.2235-40 region, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 1.2300 handle.
 

Russia Foreign Trade came in at $11.515B, above forecasts ($11B) in November

According to Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING, the Bank of Canada is set to hike rates by 25 basis points today but the real driver wil

According to Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING, the Bank of Canada is set to hike rates by 25 basis points today but the real driver will be the central bank's assessment for the economic outlook amid growing concerns over the future of the NAFTA free trade agreement.Key quotes:“With markets all but pricing in a 25bp BoC rate hike today (1500 GMT), we see the key driver for CAD as being the propensity for further tightening amid rising NAFTA break-up risks. A hawkish hold today is a non-trivial risk, though with net exports not an integral part of the BoC’s positive outlook – and other areas of the economy firing on all cylinders – a 25bp hike today is the most likely outcome. Governor Poloz may keep a non-committal and laissez-faire tone – and the risks are that investors view this as a dovish hike, with the CAD rate curve flattening slightly as sentiment for further BoC tightening eases a bit.” “With the Fed on a pre-set course, BoC policy dynamics hold the key to USD/CAD over the coming months. Based on our scenario model simulations, the risk-reward implies not chasing the BoC rate hike story today; with a 100bps worth of tightening priced in over a 2-year horizon, it's hard to imagine much further upside and at best USD/CAD runs down to 1.2350 in a hawkish hike scenario. Yet, the tail risk of a hawkish hold could see a widening of US-Canadian interest rate differentials and initiate a CAD sell-off to 1.2650. We still think USD/CAD is on a path to 1.20; getting there may be a post-NAFTA-resolution story (2H18).”

   •  Goodish USD rebound helps rebound from 4-month lows.    •  Overnight comments by SNB chair lending additional support.    •  US data eyed for

   •  Goodish USD rebound helps rebound from 4-month lows.
   •  Overnight comments by SNB chair lending additional support.
   •  US data eyed for some short-term trading opportunities. The USD/CHF pair continued gaining some positive traction through the mid-European session and is currently placed at fresh session tops, around mid-0.9600s. A goodish US Dollar rebound helped the pair to snap five consecutive days of losing streak and stage a solid rebound from sub-0.9600 level, marking its lowest level since mid-September.  The strong recovery move could also be categorized as a technical bounce from near-term oversold conditions and especially after the recent slump of over 250-pips over the past one-week.  Meanwhile, overnight comments by the SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, reiterating that the CHF was still highly valued, remained supportive of the pair's bullish momentum. Even the prevalent cautious sentiment around European equity markets, which tends to underpin the Swiss Franc's safe-haven appeal, did little to stall the ongoing short-covering bounce.  The pair has now recovered all of its losses posted in the previous session as traders now look forward to the US industrial production and capacity utilization data for some fresh impetus.Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is now seen near the 0.9675 region, above which the pair is likely to move back above the 0.9700 handle towards testing its next hurdle near the 0.9715 region. On the flip side, the 0.9600 handle now becomes an immediate support to defend, which if broken now seems to pave the way for an extension of the pair's bearish trajectory towards mid-0.9500s.
 

United States MBA Mortgage Applications declined to 4.1% in January 12 from previous 8.3%

   •  USD recovery move seemed losing steam.     •  Overbought conditions warrant further consolidation.  The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed an early

   •  USD recovery move seemed losing steam. 
   •  Overbought conditions warrant further consolidation.  The GBP/USD pair quickly reversed an early European session but seemed struggling to build on its momentum beyond the 1.3800 handle.  The pair's goodish rebound of over 40-pips from session lows lacked any specific trigger and could be solely attributed to a modest US Dollar retracement. After a goodish rebound during the Asian/early European session, the USD seemed losing steam and has been one of the key factors extending support to the major. Meanwhile, the pair's good two-way moves over the past couple of day could now be categorized as consolidation phase, especially after the recent upsurge and amid near-term overstretched conditions. Hence, it would prudent to wait for a decisive break through the consolidative phase before positioning for the next leg of directional move. Today's US economic docket, featuring the release of industrial production and capacity utilization data might assist traders to grab some short-term trading opportunities but is unlikely to provide any fresh directional impetus.Technical levels to watchAny subsequent up-move might continue to confront strong hurdle near the 1.3835 region, above which the pair seems more likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.3900 handle.  On the flip side, the 1.3750-40 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken might drag the pair below the 1.3700 handle towards its next support near the 1.3655 area.
 

Here are some of the key highlights from external BOE MPC Member Michael Saunders' speech at the Financial Intermediary and Broker Association inaugur

Here are some of the key highlights from external BOE MPC Member Michael Saunders' speech at the Financial Intermediary and Broker Association inaugural conference, in London.    •  I consider it likely that interest rates will need to rise further over time
   •  A modest further rise in rates would still imply a shift towards neutral
   •  But the path of monetary policy is not pre-set
   •  Expect any further tightening to be limited and gradual
   •  MPC is aiming for trade-off between return to inflation target and extent of spare capacity
   •  Incorrect to assume that “good” or “bad” Brexit news automatically implies rates must go in a particular direction

Global Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (BBH) provides a brief overview for the upcoming BOC monetary policy decision, due to b

Global Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (BBH) provides a brief overview for the upcoming BOC monetary policy decision, due to be announced later during the NA session.Key quotes:“Strong jobs data and the closing of the output gap, while signals from the central bank indicate that it wants to remove more accommodation, has fanned rate hike expectations.  Interpolating from the OIS, there appears to be a nearly 90% chance of a hike discounted.  We have cautioned that there is risk of either "buy the rumor sell the fact" kind of post-meeting activity or outright disappointment.  The market seems too aggressive in pricing in three hikes this year.  While a dovish hike seems to be a likely scenario, there are some that anticipate a hawkish hold.” “The US dollar slumped 4.35% against the Canadian dollar from around mid-December to January 5, when it briefly traded through CAD1.2390.  This level was the 61.8% retracement of the US dollar rally from early September.  It has chopped around between that CAD1.2390 and CAD1.2600 for the better part of past two weeks.  Our reading of the technical indicators also suggest the US dollar is trying to turn higher.”

 Axel Rudolph, Analysts at Commerzbank, notes that investors should adopt buy the dips strategy in the NZD/USD pair, as it remains poised to test the

 Axel Rudolph, Analysts at Commerzbank, notes that investors should adopt buy the dips strategy in the NZD/USD pair, as it remains poised to test the September 2017 high of 0.7435.Key Quotes:“NZD/USD sliced through the July-to-January downtrend line at .7165 and rose above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at .7261 towards the June high at .7347. Once overcome, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at .7392 and also the September peak at .7435 will be in focus. Still further up sits the July peak at .7559. Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while the currency pair trades above its .7073 current January low.” “Support above this level can be seen at the .7209/01 July low and October high as well as at the August low at .7131. While the next lower .6989/53 55 day moving average, November high and the December 20 low underpin, we will retain our medium-term bullish view. Below the .6953 level the October-to-December lows can be spotted at .6818/.6780.”

Piotr Matys, EM FX Strategist at Rabobank has come out with a research report, highlighting structural reforms as a key driving factor for the ruble i

Piotr Matys, EM FX Strategist at Rabobank has come out with a research report, highlighting structural reforms as a key driving factor for the ruble in 2018.Key quotes:“Not oil prices, but commitment to structural reforms could prove a major driving factor for the ruble this year. While the acceleration in economic activity in 2017 marked the end of prolonged recession, without economic reforms Russia’s growth will be relatively sluggish. The World Bank expects GDP growth to edge marginally higher from the estimated 1.7% y/y in 2017 to 1.8% y/y this year on the back of rising oil prices. To put that into perspective, Poland – the largest economy in the CEE - is anticipated to grow 4% y/y this year.” “There are reasons, however, to be optimistic about the long-term outlook for Russia. Once reelected in March, President Putin may focus on implementing economic reforms that would boost productivity and at the same time reduce reliance on global demand for Russia’s oil and gas. It is worth noting that for the first time in more than a decade a majority of Russians favour economic reforms over stability, according to a poll by ISRAS. Young people are the strongest supporters of reforms (62%) followed by the group of 31-40 years old (51%). Unsurprisingly the elderly prefer stability.” “The perception amongst Russians seems to be changing as they expect Putin and his administration to adopt measures that would improve living standards, especially after enduring long recession caused by the collapse of oil prices, Western sanctions imposed for incorporating Crimea and destabilizing eastern Ukraine and the sharp rise in inflation that forced the CBR to raise interest rates significantly.” “Responding to those expectations President Putin’s economic aide Belousov revealed that government spending on education, health and infrastructure could increase by 1.5-2% of GDP. This would be in line with the economic programme for 2018-2024 prepared by former Finance Minister Kudrin as one of the main pillars of Putin’s presidency. After the presidential election Putin may reshuffle the government. If Kudrin replaces Medvedev as the prime minister, it would be an indication that President Putin endorses structural reforms, which in turn could fuel capital inflows to Russian assets.” “We are cautiously optimistic about the ruble expecting gradual appreciation in the second half of the year to 52 against the US dollar and to 64.48 versus the euro.”

South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 8.2%, above expectations (3.1%) in November

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its retreat from multi-year tops into a second day today, as markets resort to repositioning ahead of key US weekly

Down almost $ 1.5 from 3-year tops. Rally overdone? API crude inventory data in focus.WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its retreat from multi-year tops into a second day today, as markets resort to repositioning ahead of key US weekly supplies data release.WTI breaches 10-DMA support at $ 63.43The barrel of WTI reversed early recovery gains and fell back in the red zone, in the wake of broad-based US dollar rebound while markets sold-off the commodity, thinking that the recent rally is being overdone. Moreover, the latest remarks from the US EIA, stating that it expected the country’s oil output to rise in February, with production from shale rising by 111,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 6.55 million bpd, also added to the weight on the black gold. Despite the recent weakness, the sentiment around oil prices remains buoyed amid expectations of tighter markets in 2018, falling US crude inventories and the OPEC oil output cuts extension. The focus shifts towards the US crude inventories reports due to be reported by the API later on Wednesday for fresh impetus.  At the time of writing, WTI drops -0.50% to $63.38 while Brent slips -0.57% to $68.67.WTI Technical LevelsThe resistances are aligned at $64 (key support-turned-resistance) ahead of $64.50 (psychological levels) and 64.89 (3-year highs). On the downside, supports are located at $63 (round figure), $62.64 (classic S2/ Fib S3) and $61.92 (20-DMA).

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank offers a technical update for the USD/CHF pair and foresee an extension of the recent slide towards the 0.9420 Sep

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank offers a technical update for the USD/CHF pair and foresee an extension of the recent slide towards the 0.9420 September low.Key quotes:“USD/CHF has recently eroded an uptrend from 2015 and its 200 week ma at .9658. This was also a Fibonacci retracement. However the new low has been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI which reflects a loss of downside momentum and we would allow for some near term consolidation. The intraday rallies are indicated to terminate circa .9650/75.” “The failure of the market at the 55 week ma introduces potential for the .9553 June 30 low and the .9421 September low. The market is on the defensive near term while below .9845, initial resistance is .9700.”

   •  USD struggles to build on early recovery gains.     •  Softer US bond yields lending additional support.    •  Focus shifts to Thursday’s key

   •  USD struggles to build on early recovery gains. 
   •  Softer US bond yields lending additional support.
   •  Focus shifts to Thursday’s key Aussie/Chinese macro data. The AUD/USD pair quickly reversed a dip to 0.7940 level and is now headed back towards the top end of its daily trading range.  The US Dollar pared some of its early gains and is once again retreating from mid-90.00s. This coupled with a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields further benefitted higher-yielding currencies and remained supportive of the pair's up-move since the early European session. Meanwhile, a softer tone around commodity space, especially copper, did little to provide any boost to the commodity-linked Australian Dollar, with the USD/US bond yield dynamics playing a dominant role in driving the pair back closer to near 4-month tops, touched earlier. It, however, remains to be seen if the bullish momentum is strong enough to lift the pair beyond the key 0.80 psychological mark as investors start repositioning for Thursday's key Aussie employment details and important Chinese macro releases. In the meantime, the release of industrial production and capacity utilization data from the US would be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities.Technical levels to watchOn a sustained move beyond the 0.80 handle, the pair seems all set to aim towards testing 0.8030-50 supply zone before eventually darting towards the 0.8100 round figure mark.  Alternatively, retracement back below 0.7960 level, leading to a subsequent drop below the 0.7940-35 region, might prompt some additional profit-taking slide towards the 0.7900-0.7890 horizontal support.
 

Reuters reports comments from the Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, delivered in an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Key Headlines:

Reuters reports comments from the Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, delivered in an interview with the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).Key Headlines:Base case should be three hikes this year. The economy is going to be strong in 2018. The stronger expansion, fiscal stimulus should support the case for rate hikes. Strong conviction for three hikes this year. If wrong, could potentially be more than that. An inverted yield curve is something worth worrying about. Doesn't think the Fed's tightening path will lead to an inverted yield curve. Best is to move gradually but deliberately remove accommodation.

Bang on expectations annualized Eurozone final CPI estimate provided extra legs to the ongoing recovery in the EUR/USD pair from a dip just ahead of t

DXY rebound stalls. Eurozone CPI y/y matches estimates. German politics, ECB jawboning still weigh. Bang on expectations annualized Eurozone final CPI estimate provided extra legs to the ongoing recovery in the EUR/USD pair from a dip just ahead of the 1.22 handle. The spot is seen making recovery attempts after the Asian corrective slide, largely on the back of the stalled rebound in the US dollar versus its major peers, as the US government shutdown fears resurface ahead of the January 19th deadline. The USD index faced rejection just ahead of the 90.50 barrier, now easing back to 90.35 region, still up +0.12% on the day. The EUR bulls were also offered some respite on the release of the Eurozone final CPI numbers, which showed the final reading confirmed the flash estimate of 1.4% on an annualized basis. However, it remains to be seen if the pair can take on the recovery towards the 1.23 mark, as the German political breakdown combined with the EUR jawboning by the ECB policymakers, continue to dampen the sentiment around the common currency. ECB’s Nowotny: Euro exchange rate must be observed ECB’s Constancio: Worried about Euro moves that don't reflect fundamentals With the Eurozone final CPI out of the way, all eyes remain on the US industrial figures and Fedspeaks for further momentum on the prices. EUR/USD Technical LevelsKaren Jones Analyst at FXStreet, writes: “EUR/USD charted an inside day and has shot higher overnight. The new high has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and we would allow for a small pullback currently this is indicated to terminate circa 1.2150-1.2110. Beyond this, it remains on course to challenge the 1.2432 200 month ma.  Support should be offered by the 1.2092 September high and the 20-day moving average at 1.2016 – the market will remain immediately bid above here.”   

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (0.9%) in December

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.4%) in December

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.4%) in December

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) above expectations (0.4%) in December: Actual (0.5%)

Having witnessed the biggest daily sell-off in four months, Bitcoin, the biggest and most traded cryptocurrency, extended losses by another 11% so far

Having witnessed the biggest daily sell-off in four months, Bitcoin, the biggest and most traded cryptocurrency, extended losses by another 11% so far this Wednesday. The prices dipped briefly below the $ 10k mark in early Asia to refresh monthly lows at $ 9949, before finding some support to head back above $ 10500 levels.  Most of its best known counterparts also extended yesterday’s selling spiral, with Ethereum down 13%, Ripple losing 19% and Bitcoin cash down 12% on the day, according to the CoinMarketCap data. The declines gathered momentum for the second straight session, as markets remain wary over the regulatory measures likely to be introduced by the Asian regulators, especially the South Korean and Chinese, to curb the speculation seen in the virtual currencies space. On Wednesday, the China Securities Times quoted unnamed government sources, citing that the Chinese authorities are targeting crypto trading platforms in a further crackdown on cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Finance Minister said on Tuesday that banning trading in cryptocurrencies was still an option. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market cap continues to get eroded, now seen at $ 503 billion versus yesterday’s $561.92 billion. More than $200 billion has been wiped off the value of global cryptocurrencies over the last two trading sessions.  

   •  Goodish USD recovery helps bounce off lows.    •  Positive US bond yields supportive of the move.    •  Risk-off environment capping additiona

   •  Goodish USD recovery helps bounce off lows.
   •  Positive US bond yields supportive of the move.
   •  Risk-off environment capping additional gains. The USD/JPY pair held on to its strong recovery gains, with bulls now eyeing a move beyond the 111.00 handle for fresh impetus. After an initial dip to fresh 4-month lows, near the 110.20 region, the pair staged a smart recovery and so far, seems to have snapped seven consecutive days of losing streak amid reviving US Dollar demand.  A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, to some extent, helped ease the prevalent strong bearish pressure surrounding the greenback and supported a minor rebound from closer to the key 110.00 psychological mark.  Meanwhile, a mildly negative trading sentiment around European equity markets underpinned the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and was seen capping additional gains, at least for the time being. Today's relatively thin US economic docket, featuring the release of industrial production and capacity utilization data, is unlikely to act as a game changer and hence, the pair remains at the mercy of USD price dynamics and broader market risk sentiment.Technical levels to watchA sustained break through the 111.00 handle is likely to trigger a short-covering bounce and lift the pair back towards the very important 200-day SMA hurdle near the 111.65-70 reigon. On the flip side, weakness back below 110.40 level might continue to find some support near the 110.00 region, which if broken could drag the pair towards its next support near the 109.70-65 zone.
 

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking at the Euromoney CCE Conference in Vienna. Nowotny noted that t

ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking at the Euromoney CCE Conference in Vienna. Nowotny noted that the Euro exchange rate must be observed. His comments come after ECB’s Constancio said that he will be worried about the Euro moves that don't reflect fundamentals.

According to the results of a Bloomberg survey of 30 economists on the Swiss economy for 2018, a majority of them see the Swiss economy expanding by 0

According to the results of a Bloomberg survey of 30 economists on the Swiss economy for 2018, a majority of them see the Swiss economy expanding by 0.5% in Q4 2017.Key Findings:Prior survey showed Q4 2017 growth +0.7%. GDP 1Q 2018 +0.5% q/q vs prior +0.4%. GDP 2Q 2018 +0.4% q/q vs prior +0.4% GDP 2017 +1.0% y/y vs prior +0.9%. GDP 2018 +1.9% y/y vs prior +1.8%. CPI 2018 +0.6% y/y vs prior +0.6%.

The European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker was on the wires in the last minute, saying that we would like the UK to stay in the EU. He further

The European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker was on the wires in the last minute, saying that we would like the UK to stay in the EU. He further added that even if the UK leaves, we'd be willing to facilitate re-accession after Brexit.

 Axel Rudolph, Analysts at Commerzbank, notes that the USD/CAD pair could test 1.2246/04 zone on a break below 1.2357, its monthly low. Key Quotes:

 Axel Rudolph, Analysts at Commerzbank, notes that the USD/CAD pair could test 1.2246/04 zone on a break below 1.2357, its monthly low.Key Quotes: “USD/CAD’s recent slide has so far taken it to its current January low at 1.2357, to below the July low at 1.2416. It thus nearly reached the 55 month moving average at 1.2313. Below it the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September-to-December advance at 1.2246, together with the September 20 low at 1.2204, could also be reached.“ “Further down sits key support at the 1.2064 September trough. If also slipped through, we would have to allow for the April 2015 low at 1.1922 to be revisited. Immediate downside pressure should persist while no rise above the 1.2588 current January high is seen. Above it lies the 1.2626/67 resistance area which is made up of the late August high and the November and December 5 lows.”

Christin Tuxen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank maintains a bearish outlook for the USD/JPY pair, alebit believes that a dovish strike at the BoJ meeting

Christin Tuxen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank maintains a bearish outlook for the USD/JPY pair, alebit believes that a dovish strike at the BoJ meeting ending on 23 January will be enough to turn the tide in the short term.Key quotes:“USD/JPY sold off last night driven by general USD weakness and weak risk appetite. We still see risk skewed to the downside short term for the cross even if we expect Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to strike a relatively dovish tone at the BoJ meeting ending on 23 January and downplay the significance of daily market operations while also repeating the BoJ’s inflation overshooting commitment.” “However, we doubt that a soft stance from the BoJ will be enough to turn the tide for the JPY in the short term. Instead, we reckon that future BoJ actions (e.g. fixed price JGB purchase operation) are likely to be pivotal and could help restore confidence that the BoJ is not about to exit QE.”

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank provides a technical outlook for the EUR/JPY cross as investors await the key release of final EZ CPI print for fr

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank provides a technical outlook for the EUR/JPY cross as investors await the key release of final EZ CPI print for fresh impetus. Key quotes:“EUR/JPY is approaching tough resistance offered by the 136.62 recent high and the 137.18 downtrend from 1981. We would expect this to hold the topside. Dips will find initial support at 134.88/50 ahead of the 133.28 uptrend.” “Below the 133.28 uptrend and the 133.09 January low should be enough to re-target the 131.16 November low. Only a close below here would negate the up move and suggest losses to 128.50 and the 127.57 August low.”

   •  Goodish USD rebound prompts some profit-taking.    •  Technical studies suggest additional corrective slide.  The GBP/USD pair extended its re

   •  Goodish USD rebound prompts some profit-taking.
   •  Technical studies suggest additional corrective slide.  The GBP/USD pair extended its retracement slide from fresh post-Brexit highs and refreshed session lows in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. The pair stalled its bullish trajectory and once again failed to sustain early strength beyond the 1.3800 handle. The pair retreated from a key resistance near the 1.3835 region, marking February 2016 low, and was being weighed down by a goodish US Dollar rebound. The pair's modest pull-back could also be attributed to some profit-taking, especially after the recent upsurges of around 375-pips from last Thursday’s swing low near the 1.3460 region and technically overstretched conditions.  In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the UK, broader market sentiment surrounding the greenback would continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on Wednesday. Later during the early NA session, the US manufacturing data might also be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities.Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near the 1.3750-40 region, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the fall towards the 1.3700 handle en-route 1.3655 support. On the upside, the 1.3795-1.3800 region now becomes an immediate hurdle and any subsequent moves might continue to confront fresh supply near the 1.3835 area.
 

Austria HICP (YoY) down to 2.3% in December from previous 2.4%

Austria HICP (MoM): 0.6% (December) vs 0.1%

According to Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank the EUR/GBP cross has stabilized above the 55-week ma but struggled for a firm directional bias. Key

According to Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank the EUR/GBP cross has stabilized above the 55-week ma but struggled for a firm directional bias.Key quotes:“EUR/GBP has recently failed to clear an old Fibonacci retracement at 0.8925 and also recovered off the 50% retracement at .8808. Currently we remain unable to rule out a move to the .9034 October high. Below .8808 would retarget the .8697 recent low. No really strong bias.” “Key near term resistance is the .9034 October 12 2017 high. This remains the barrier to the 0.9071/0.9175 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements.” “The cross recently sold off to the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year at .8697. A close below here targets the .8530/78.6% retracement of the move seen this year.”

   •  Goodish USD rebound helps gains some positive traction.    •  Bulls seemed lacking conviction ahead of BOC decision. The USD/CAD pair gained s

   •  Goodish USD rebound helps gains some positive traction.
   •  Bulls seemed lacking conviction ahead of BOC decision. The USD/CAD pair gained some positive traction on Wednesday, albeit seemed lacking strong follow-through momentum beyond the 1.2450-60 region. The pair continues to find decent support around the 1.2400 handle and reviving greenback demand provided an additional boost on Wednesday. In fact, the key US Dollar Index staged a solid rebound from 3-year lows and has been one of the key factors driving the pair higher through the early European session. Meanwhile, a subdued action around oil markets, with WTI crude oil holding stable below the $64.00/barrel mark, did little to lend any support to the commodity-linked Loonie and remained supportive of the pair's modest uptick. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to build on the up-move or runs through some fresh offers as traders start repositioning themselves for today's key event risk - BOC monetary policy decision, due to be announced later today.  The Canadian central bank is universally expected to hike interest rates by 25-bps points and hence, the accompanying policy statement, and subsequent press conference might determine the pair's next leg of directional move.Technical levels to watchA sustained move beyond 1.2460 level is likely to trigger a short-covering bounce towards reclaiming the key 1.2500 psychological mark en-route 1.2545 horizontal resistance and 100-day SMA barrier near the 1.2585-90 region. On the flip side, the 1.2400 handle might continue to act as immediate support, which if broken decisively is likely to accelerate the fall back towards 1.2355 level before the pair eventually drops to 1.2300-1.2290 strong horizontal support.
 

Eurozone final CPIs estimate overview Eurostat will publish the Eurozone's inflation final estimate for December at 10.00GMT today. Consumer prices a

Eurozone final CPIs estimate overviewEurostat will publish the Eurozone's inflation final estimate for December at 10.00GMT today. Consumer prices are seen easing to 1.4% on a yearly basis, confirming the flash estimate. While the core figures are expected to edge lower to 0.9% versus 1.1% reported in the first readout. On a monthly basis, the CPI figure for December is seen at 0.4% versus 0.1% previous while the core CPI is expected to a solid rebound to 0.4% versus -0.1% last. This gauge is considered the Eurozone's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target.Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 40 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -3, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 50 pips.  How could affect EUR/USD?Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank explains, “EUR/USD charted an inside day and has shot higher overnight. The new high has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and we would allow for a small pullback currently this is indicated to terminate circa 1.2150-1.2110. Beyond this, it remains on course to challenge the 1.2432 200-month ma. 
Support should be offered by the 1.2092 September high and the 20-day moving average at 1.2016 – the market will remain immediately bid above here.” Key notesMain market movers today - Danske Bank EUR/USD headed to 1.2200 on solid USD rebound, EZ CPI eyedAbout Eurozone final CPIs estimateThe Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones says a failure at 0.80 levels and the bearish RSI divergence could send AUD/USD back to ascending trendline support of

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones says a failure at 0.80 levels and the bearish RSI divergence could send AUD/USD back to ascending trendline support of 0.7878.Key quotesAUD/USD has reached the .7998/.8000 78.6% retracement, the new high has been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI and we would allow for a move lower very near term. Dips lower will find initial support offered by the accelerated uptrend at .7878. While above here it remains immediately bid and above .8000 lies the .8061 200 month moving average. This is considered to be the last defence for the .8125 September high.

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, anticipates a near-term rebound for the USD/JPY pair but continue to hold a neutral to negative long-term bias be

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, anticipates a near-term rebound for the USD/JPY pair but continue to hold a neutral to negative long-term bias below 114.38/82 major resistance.Key quotes:“USD/JPY has reached the 61.8% retracement at 110.15. We note the 13 count on the 240 minute chart and would allow for a near term rebound, intraday rallies are indicated to fail circa 111.40.” “Failure at 110.15 targets the 108.90 Fibonacci retracement and allows for a move to the 107.34 2012-2018 uptrend.” “Initial resistance lies at 111.73/112.05 (200 day ma). Above here lies the 113.64/75 December highs. There is a lot of resistance directly overhead – namely the 113.92 2015-2018 downtrend line. Above here sits the 114.38/82 major resistance, we continue to favour failure.”

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones takes note of the bearish RSI divergence on the EUR/USD chart and mentions scope for a drop to 1.2150-1.2110.  Key qu

Commerzbank Analyst Karen Jones takes note of the bearish RSI divergence on the EUR/USD chart and mentions scope for a drop to 1.2150-1.2110. Key quotesEUR/USD charted an inside day and has shot higher overnight. The new high has not been confirmed by the daily RSI and we would allow for a small pullback currently this is indicated to terminate circa 1.2150- 1.2110. Beyond this it remains on course to challenge the 1.2432 200 month ma. Support should be offered by the 1.2092 September high and the 20 day moving average at 1.2016 – the market will remain immediately bid above here. Below 1.2016 will trigger losses to the 1.1878 uptrend.    

   •  Overbought conditions prompt some profit-taking.    •  Solid USD rebound adds to the downward pressure. The AUD/USD pair faced rejection near

   •  Overbought conditions prompt some profit-taking.
   •  Solid USD rebound adds to the downward pressure. The AUD/USD pair faced rejection near the key 0.80 psychological mark, near 4-month tops, and has now retreated over 50-pips from session tops.  The pair initially got a boost from today's upbeat Aussie data, showing that the value of home loan lending unexpectedly rose in November and helped offset near-term overbought conditions. However, a solid US Dollar rebound, supported by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields prompted traders to take some profits off higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie.  Currently trading around the 0.7945-40 region, testing session lows, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Wednesday and hence, the US bond yield dynamics would continue to play a key role in determining the pair's momentum ahead of Thursday Australian employment details.Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near 0.7915 level, below which the pair is likely to fall below the 0.7900 handle and head towards testing 0.7870-60 horizontal support. On the upside, the 0.80 handle might continue to act as an immediate strong hurdle, which if cleared could lift the pair further towards 0.8030-50 supply zone.
 

Additional headlines crossing the wires from the ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio, citing: ESM tasks should not change. Worried about Euro moves

Additional headlines crossing the wires from the ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio, citing: ESM tasks should not change. Worried about Euro moves that don't reflect fundamentals. Changes to ECB's forward guidance won't be immediate. Inflation still not meeting expectations.

The greenback is showing signs of life in early Europe. Having hit a fresh three-year low of 90.21 in Asia, the dollar index (DXY) now trades 0.20% h

DXY pushed higher by technical factors. Risk of short-term bullish reversal. The greenback is showing signs of life in early Europe. Having hit a fresh three-year low of 90.21 in Asia, the dollar index (DXY) now trades 0.20% higher on the day at 90.62. The oversold conditions as shown by the RSI on the daily and the bullish price-RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart seems to have played a role in pushing the dollar index higher. The recovery adds credence to the bearish exhaustion indicated by yesterday's doji candle. However, a short-term bearish to bullish trend change (bullish doji reversal) would be confirmed only if the dollar index closes today above the previous day's (doji candle) high of 90.82. A better-than-expected US industrial production data (due at 14:15 GMT) could help DXY close above 90.82. Also, the realization is seeping into the markets that the ECB, BOJ and other major central banks could be a lot slower in tightening screw than previous thought. So, the greenback may once again start rising in response to favorable rate/yield differential.Dollar Index Technical LevelsA close above 90.82 would open doors for a sustained move higher to 91.46 (Sep. 20 low). A violation there would expose 92.00 (psychological level). On the downside, breach of support at 90.21 could yield a test of major psychological support of 90.00. A close below the same could yield 89.17 (March 2009 high).  

The ECB vice president Vitor Constancio was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that monetary policy will continue to be 'very acco

The ECB vice president Vitor Constancio was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that monetary policy will continue to be 'very accommodating' for a long time.Additional quotes: Has not heard convincing arguments in favour of transforming ESM into so-called European Monetary Fund. Would keep ESM as it is, no reasons to modify institutional situation and create a new entity, reducing role of commission.

Danske Bank’s analysts enlist the key market moving events due on the cards this Wednesday. Key Quotes: “In the euro area, we are due to get the fin

Danske Bank’s analysts enlist the key market moving events due on the cards this Wednesday.Key Quotes:“In the euro area, we are due to get the final December HICP inflation figures. We do not expect any revisions but instead will look for which items have weighed on service price inflation, as this HICP component will be key for core inflation to pick up. Overall, we expect core inflation to average only 1.1% in 2018, in line with the ECB's new forecasts. In the US, industrial production for December is released. The current trend in industrial production is decent and based on ISM Manufacturing there is room for an uptick in growth of industrial production. A few central bank speakers including the ECB's Ewald Nowotny, the Fed's Charles Evans (non-voter, dovish) and Loretta Mester (voter, hawkish) are due to speak today. Speech from the Riksbank's Ohlsson this afternoon; otherwise no Scandi events.”

A latest Bloomberg survey shows economists expect Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise rates only after the European Central Bank (ECB) begins tightenin

A latest Bloomberg survey shows economists expect Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise rates only after the European Central Bank (ECB) begins tightening cycles. Thus, SNB is not seen raising rates before the fourth quarter of 2019. 

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, offers key technical levels for trading GBP/USD today. Key Quotes: “GBP/USD has tested overnight the 1.3836 the

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, offers key technical levels for trading GBP/USD today.Key Quotes:“GBP/USD has tested overnight the 1.3836 the February 2016 low, various intraday divergences suggest consolidation ahead of psychological resistance at 1.40. The market stays immediately bid above the 1.3486 2 month uptrend. We note the 13 count on the 240-minute chart and would allow for a retracement to 1.3690/1.3620.“ “Below the 1.3486 would retarget the 1.3291 2014-17 uptrend.” “Short Term Trend (1-3 weeks): The 2014-2017 downtrend line has been eroded to target the 1.3658/71 double Fibo. Above here would target 1.3836 the February 2016 low.”

The EUR/USD pair is seen extending its corrective slide from three-year tops of 1.2323, now heading for a test of the 1.2200 support, as broad-based U

DXY rebound gathers steam. German political fallout weighs. Eurozone Final CPI in focus. The EUR/USD pair is seen extending its corrective slide from three-year tops of 1.2323, now heading for a test of the 1.2200 support, as broad-based US dollar rebound gains traction in early Europe. The spot returned to the red zone, as markets resorted to repositioning ahead of the key Eurozone final CPI data while the German political headwinds, after the SPD rejected the coalition talks with Merkel’s Conservatives, also continue to undermine the sentiment around the EUR. Meanwhile, the pair also weighs the latest ECB headline, citing that the ECB is unlikely to drop the pledge to QE program until inflation hits the target next week. Markets now look forward to the Eurozone final CPI and US industrial figures due later on Wednesday for fresh trading impetus. EUR/USD Technical LevelsHaresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “Any meaningful corrective slide might continue to find some support near the 1.2210-1.2200 region, which if broken is likely to accelerate the fall towards 1.2170 intermediate level en-route the 1.2120-10 support. On the upside, the 1.2290-1.2300 region might continue to act as an immediate hurdle, above which the pair might now surpass intraday highs resistance near 1.2325 level and aim towards testing 1.2370-75 supply zone en-route the 1.2400 handle.”  

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is out with an opinion piece, highlighting the five potential risks that could hamper the ongoing oil rally. Key Five R

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is out with an opinion piece, highlighting the five potential risks that could hamper the ongoing oil rally.Key Five Risks:1. GeopoliticsWhile tensions in the Middle East has led to possible disruptions in oil supply (which is one of the supportive factors in the current rally), these geopolitical tensions will eventually subside - and oil prices could lose their immediate support.2. Crude demandOil markets are heavily dependent on demand and supply talks but I don't see global demand waning that much, not when a global growth is moving forward in such synchronized fashion.3. OPEC disciplineThis is one of the bigger factors that could influence prices. The issue here is compliance - especially in times when prices are rising. It wouldn't be surprising to see some producers "cut" corners and increase output to take advantage of the higher prices.4. US drillersOne of (if not the biggest) the contributors to the downfall in oil prices in recent years. Higher prices will give more incentive for US shale producers to pump harder.5. Market speculatorsOPEC's argument has always been "when prices rise, it's due to fundamentals" and "when prices fall, it's due to speculation". Well, whether or not they want to believe in it, bullish bets on oil has risen considerably in the second half of last year and has even surpassed that of the start of 2017 - according to data from ICE. So, the rally may have just gone too far, too fast and a retracement/correction here is very much a possibility.

Having failed several attempts to regain the 0.73 handle, the NZD/USD pair came under intense selling pressure, mainly driven by the resurgence of the

 DXY rebound knocks-off Kiwi. Risk-aversion undermines. Awaits US & China data. Having failed several attempts to regain the 0.73 handle, the NZD/USD pair came under intense selling pressure, mainly driven by the resurgence of the US dollar demand across the board.NZD/USD finds support near 0.7285 The US dollar staged a solid comeback from more-than three-year lows versus its major rivals, triggering a fresh selling-wave in the NZD/USD pair while persisting risk-off market profile, reflected by negative Asian equities and subdued Treasury yields amid fresh North Korea headlines also add to the weight on the higher-yielding currency NZD. Moreover, a profit-taking slide from the four-month top also cannot be ruled out, as investors gear up for the Chinese macro releases due tomorrow, with the main focus on the GDP figures. The NZD is used a liquid proxy for bets on China, as China is New Zealand’s top trading partner. However, the losses may remain capped, in the wake of rising dairy prices and ongoing oil-price rally. Ahead of the China data dump, the pair awaits the US industrial production data and Fed Beige book release for fresh near-term trading opportunities.NZD/USD TechnicalsThe pair finds next resistances at 0.7315 (4-month tops), at 0.7350 (psychological levels), 0.7391 (classic R3). Meanwhile, the supports are located at 0.7228 (10-DMA), 0.7200 (zero figure) and 0.7160/52 (200 & 20-DMA).

Gold's (XAU/USD) recovery from the low of $1331.91 yesterday, but closed with marginal losses at $1340.78, thus forming a hanging man candlestick on t

Yesterdays hanging man candle warns of a potential trend change. A negative price today would confirm the bearish hanging man reversal. Gold's (XAU/USD) recovery from the low of $1331.91 yesterday, but closed with marginal losses at $1340.78, thus forming a hanging man candlestick on the daily chart. The pattern indicates bulls market exhaustion (as prices ended on a negative note yesterday, despite the recovery from Intraday Low). What happens on the next day after hanging man candle decides the next move in asset prices. The short-term bearish reversal would be confirmed if gold closes below $1326 (10-day MA + ascending trendline). The American dollar is showing signs of life against the Japanese Yen. EUR/USD and GBP/USD also look overbought and due for a correction as indicated by bearish inside day candle on their respective daily charts. Thus, gold may dip below $1326 today. That said, the political uncertainty in Germany and the threat of US government shutdown could cap the downside in the safe haven yellow metal.Gold Technical LevelsReuters technical report says. " Spot gold still targets its Sept. 8, 2017 high of $1,357.54 per ounce, as suggested by its wave pattern and a retracement analysis." "The analysis is on the downtrend from $1,357.54 to the Dec. 12 low of $1,235.92. It reveals that gold has eventually overcome the barrier at $1,341 - the 86.4 percent level, after a brief correction." "The metal is riding on a wave 5, the fifth wave of a five-wave cycle from $1,307.90. The cycle has been developing within a rising channel, which suggests a peak of the wave 5 around $1,357." "A projection analysis and a falling trendline on the daily chart indicate a similar target at $1,354, the 50 percent level of an upward wave C."

Forex today witnessed good two-way price movement in the US dollar versus its main competitors, with a solid comeback staged from multi-year troughs b

Forex today witnessed good two-way price movement in the US dollar versus its main competitors, with a solid comeback staged from multi-year troughs below 90 handle knocked-off most majors lower. Meanwhile, the EUR, AUD, and GBP were offered into the technical selling while the Yen remained unfazed by weaker Asian equities and Treasury yields. Amongst the commodities, oil prices traded neutral ahead of the US weekly crude stockpiles data and gold prices held onto gains above $ 1340 levels.Main topics in AsiaBoJ keeps JGBs purchases unchanged in today’s operation The Bank of Japan (BoJ) made no changes to the purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in the 1-3 and 3-5 year maturities for today. US House Republicans debate stop-gap govt funding bill - Reuters News As per Reuters news, US House Republicans are considering a stop-gap govt funding bill through Feb 16. If approved, it will be fourth such measure to keep govt operating since October.  AUD/USD closes in on 0.80 after home loans beat forecastsAUD/USD cut through resistance at 0.7978 (76.4% Fib R of Sep-Dec sell-off) and almost tested 0.80 levels after the data released in Australia showed the value of home loan lending rose for the second month in November. Participants in N. Korea meeting agree to consider further diplomatic actions that go beyond UN resolution Reuters reporting the statement issued from the 'Co-chairs' on North Korea, following their meeting in Vancouver. Brexit uncertainty - Number of new graduate jobs falls for first time since financial crisis The number of new graduate jobs fell for first time since the financial crisis as leading recruiters downgrade hiring plans due Brexit uncertainty says a survey of the UK’s leading 100 graduate recruiters.Key Focus aheadThe EUR calendar continues to remain data-light for the third straight session, with nothing of note slated for release, except for the Eurozone final CPI report. Ahead of the NA session, we have the speech from the BOE MPC member Saunders at the Financial Intermediary and Broker Association inaugural conference, in London. The main risk event for the markets today remains the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate decision, followed by Poloz’ press conference. Markets are widely expecting a 25bps rate hike today.  EUR/USD fades spike to 3-year high after inside day doji candle The EUR/USD rose to a fresh three-year high of 1.2323 a few minutes ago only to fall back below 1.23 levels, indicating the overbought technical conditions are likely coming into play. GBP/USD rejected at 1.3835, surrenders 1.3800 The GBP/USD pair failed once again to sustain above the 1.38 handle, now accelerating the corrective slide from fresh post-Brexit vote highs reached at 1.3836. Focus on Wednesday's final EZ CPI - BBH Global Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (BBH) offered a brief preview for the upcoming release of the final EZ CPI print on Wednesday.  Canadian Dollar Awaits Central Bank Anticipated Rate Hike The USD/CAD has been almost flat this week awaiting the rate decision by the Bank of Canada (BoC). BOC to raise the overnight rate by 25bps today – RBC CM Analysts at RBC Capital Markets offer a brief sneak peek on what to expect from today’s Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision. Fed Beige Book preview - Nomura Analysts at Nomura offered their preview for the Fed Beige Book.  

The USD/JPY bears ran out of steam early today as prices neared 110.15 (61.8% Fib R of Sep. low-Nov. high), allowing for a corrective move higher. Th

Sellers ran out of steam near 61.8% Fib. USD/JPY needs to hold above 1-hour 50-MA. The USD/JPY bears ran out of steam early today as prices neared 110.15 (61.8% Fib R of Sep. low-Nov. high), allowing for a corrective move higher. The currency pair cut through the 1-hour 50-MA level of 110.63 and was last seen trading at a session high of 110.80.  It is worth noting that the pair has repeatedly failed in the last 48 hours to cut through offers around 1-hour 50-MA. Thus, a convincing break above the key moving average could see a technical correction gather pace. The moving average seems to have shed the bearish bias (is bottoming out). Also, analysts believe the markets are overpricing the probability of near-term BOJ tightening and the BOJ is more likely to reiterate its ultra-easy stance. So, Yen could give up its gains. Hence, the spot may hold above 1-hour 50-MA this time. However, fears of the government shutdown in the US and flat action in the treasury yields could cap upside in the pair.USD/JPY Technical LevelsA move above 110.95 (23.6% Fib R of Jan. 8 high-Jan. 17 low) would open doors for 111.41 (38.2% Fib R of Jan. 8 high - Jan. 17 low) and 111.65 (Oct. 16 low). On the downside, support at 110.32 (Jan. 15 low) and 110.15 (61.8% Fib R of Sep. low-Nov. high) could be put to test if the bulls fail to defend the 1-hour 50-MA of 110.64.    

The China Securities Times quoted unnamed government sources, citing that the Chinese authorities are targeting crypto trading platforms in a further

The China Securities Times quoted unnamed government sources, citing that the Chinese authorities are targeting crypto trading platforms in a further crackdown on cryptocurrencies.Key Points:Authorities said to target the domestically registered OTC trading platforms, peer-to-peer networks and domestically registered firms providing centralized trading services via overseas platforms.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seen keeping interest rates unchanged next week and could revise growth forecasts while maintaining upbeat price forecasts.  K

Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seen keeping interest rates unchanged next week and could revise growth forecasts while maintaining upbeat price forecasts.  Key points (Source: Reuters) Kuroda may struggle to convince markets easy policy intact. The BOJ is seen slightly raising its growth forecast for the fiscal year beginning in April from a projection of 1.4 percent made three months ago, according to sources.  The bank is will stick to its view that inflation will hit 2 percent by March 2020.  

Moody’s briefly noted on the Yen outlook, in its latest review report on the BoJ policy, noting that the Japanese currency could rise if North Korea c

Moody’s briefly noted on the Yen outlook, in its latest review report on the BoJ policy, noting that the Japanese currency could rise if North Korea conflict increases risk-aversion.

Reuters report says UK PM Theresa May's Conservatives Party has asked MPs to back the government’s Brexit legislation at a vote in parliament later to

Reuters report says UK PM Theresa May's Conservatives Party has asked MPs to back the government’s Brexit legislation at a vote in parliament later today. "Labour say over and again that they support the referendum result, and can be trusted to act responsibly, but today that will be put to the test. They can either back this bill or vote for chaos", said Conservative Party Chairman Brandon Lewis. The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill will be put to vote through parliament’s lower house sometime after 1900 GMT. What if Labour votes against the bill? - PM May should win a vote, given the arrangement with a small, pro-Brexit Northern Irish Party.

A tweet from Associated Press reads as follows- "House conservatives say there are enough Republican opponents to reject GOP leaders' plan to prevent

A tweet from Associated Press reads as follows- "House conservatives say there are enough Republican opponents to reject GOP leaders' plan to prevent a govbernment shutdown." 

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets offer a brief sneak peek on what to expect from today’s Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision. Key Quotes:

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets offer a brief sneak peek on what to expect from today’s Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision.Key Quotes:“We expect the BoC to raise the overnight rate by 25bp at Wednesday's meeting. Clear signs of diminished labor market slack. And an economy operating at full capacity. Should outweigh rising trade tensions with the US. Risks around a possible US withdrawal from NAFTA will likely once again be the biggest concern weighing on the BoC, but absent an imminent withdrawal notice, they should feel comfortable bumping up the overnight rate to its post-crisis high of 1.25%. Indeed, Q4 Business Outlook Survey results suggest firms' hiring and investment intentions are elevated despite trade uncertainties. The impact of an expected increase to US growth for 2018 (currently at 2.2%) will likely outweigh a downgrade to Q4 growth from 2.5% to something close to our current monitoring of 1.7% in the updated projection.”

The GBP/USD pair failed once again to sustain above the 1.38 handle, now accelerating the corrective slide from fresh post-Brexit vote highs reached a

Closely tracks DXY price-action. Brexit headlines will continue to weigh. Focus shifts to the US industrial figures. The GBP/USD pair failed once again to sustain above the 1.38 handle, now accelerating the corrective slide from fresh post-Brexit vote highs reached at 1.3836.GBP/USD back to test 5-DMA at 1.3768The spot ran into the key resistance zone located near 1.3835, as the US dollar is seen recovering early losses versus its main peers, having dipped to the lowest levels since Dec 2014 at 89.98. The USD index looks to stabilize near 90.25 levels, as attention now turns towards the US industrial production data due later on Wednesday. The AceTrader Team explained, “although the greenback snapped its recent losing streak initially on Tuesday and staged a rebound against the majority of its peers on short-covering, the intra-day decline in U.S. stocks where the Dow tumbled from record highs of 26086 triggered renewed broad-based USD selling in late New York trade.”   Despite the latest upsurge, Cable remains weighed down by the uncertainty over the Brexit deal, especially after the UK PM May’s spokesman said that Britain will be the leaving EU. Earlier on Tuesday, the European (EU) Council President Donald Tusk's comments earlier that the UK can have a "change of heart" on Brexit and EU still open to the UK staying in the EU. Meanwhile, with the UK core-CPI easing to 2.5% versus 2.7% previous, the BoE rate hike is back on the table. However, markets believe that the BoE may not hike rates this summer, as the Brexit fears ramp up, which in turn keeps a lid on the pound’s upside.GBP/USD Technical LevelsValeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, noted “Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the Momentum keeps easing within positive territory, but also that the 20 SMA maintains its bullish slope far below the current level, while the RSI hovers in overbought territory leaning the scale towards the upside. As commented on a previous update the pair has a strong static resistance area around 1.3835, February 2016 low, now the level to surpass to consider a steeper recovery ahead. Support levels: 1.3740 1.3700 1.3660. Resistance levels: 1.3800 1.3835 1.3860.” 

National Bank of Canada Economics and Strategy desk says the rising spread between WTI and shale breakeven prices could derail oil market rebalancing.

National Bank of Canada Economics and Strategy desk says the rising spread between WTI and shale breakeven prices could derail oil market rebalancing.Key quotesDemand/supply fundamentals are currently favorable to oil and could indeed lift prices further over the near term. But the higher WTI goes, the more brutal the subsequent decline is likely to be. WTI oil is now high enough above break-even prices for the marginal producer (i.e. shale oil players) to rekindle output from shale oil. The last time there was such a spread between WTI and shale breakeven prices, the global oil market turned, in the space of just a few quarters, from excess demand to excess supply.

Bloomberg came out with the key headlines reported by Deutsche Securities in Tokyo on the USD/JPY and BoJ policy outlook. Key Points: May thus be in

Bloomberg came out with the key headlines reported by Deutsche Securities in Tokyo on the USD/JPY and BoJ policy outlook.Key Points:May thus be interest from investors to buy on dips. See no change in the trend of USD/JPY rising in time. Cite Japan-U.S. interest rate differentials widening. A precondition for higher USD/JPY is the continuation of Bank of Japan easy monetary policy. Look for confirmation of this at next week's BOJ meeting.

The Fed is expected to hike rates three times this year, while the ECB is seen raising rates next year. Hence, the 2-year US-German (DE) yield spread

US-DE 2-yr yield spread at highest since 1999. EUR/USD rises despite the widening yield spread. The Fed is expected to hike rates three times this year, while the ECB is seen raising rates next year. Hence, the 2-year US-German (DE) yield spread continues to widen in favor of the USD. As of writing, the spread stands at 259 basis points - the highest level since 1999. More importantly, the spread has risen 56 basis points since early September. Initially, EUR/USD fell from 1.20 (Sep high) to 1.1550 (Nov low) in response to rising 2-year yield spread. However, the chart below shows the correlation broke down in December. While the spread continues to rise, the US dollar no longer follows suit, i.e. EUR/USD regained bid tone in mid-November and moved to 3-year highs above 1.22 today. 

USD/JPY spot week 25 delta risk reversal gauge dropped to an eight-week low of -1.275, indicating the growing demand for JPY calls (bullish bets no JP

Spot week risk reversals hit 8-week low Spot week ATM Vols rise to one-month high. USD/JPY spot week 25 delta risk reversal gauge dropped to an eight-week low of -1.275, indicating the growing demand for JPY calls (bullish bets no JPY). Also, the spot week ATM Vols rose to a one-month high of 6.753 yesterday. A combination higher premiums for JPY calls and rising vols indicate the spot could soon drop below 110.15 (61.8% Fib R of Sep-Nov rally).

In an interview with China’s People’s Daily newspaper, Guo Shuqing, the head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) warned that a “black sw

In an interview with China’s People’s Daily newspaper, Guo Shuqing, the head of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) warned that a “black swan”, or an unforeseen, event could threaten the country’s financial stability, Reuters reports.Key Quotes:The dangers stem from the pressure of rising bad debt, imperfect internal risk systems at financial institutions, the relatively high levels of shadow banking activities and rule violations. All of these risks could upend financial stability through a “black swan” event. “We need to focus on reducing the debt ratio of companies, restrict household leverage, strictly control cross-financial sector products, continue to dismantle shadow banking,” 

The US-based ratings agency, Moody’s Investors Service, published its latest review report on the BoJ’s monetary policy program, with the key highligh

The US-based ratings agency, Moody’s Investors Service, published its latest review report on the BoJ’s monetary policy program, with the key highlights found below (via Reuters). Moody's official says recent gains in JGBs do not imply that the Japanese government's funding conditions will worsen. Says do not expect an imminent tightening in BoJ policy. Says expect Japanese government's funding conditions to remain favorable for some time.

Ratings agency Moody's believes the China hard landing scenario has become more remote.  Moody's comments come a day ahead of China GDP data, which i

Ratings agency Moody's believes the China hard landing scenario has become more remote.  Moody's comments come a day ahead of China GDP data, which is expected to show the economy expanded at an annual rate of 6.7% in the final three months of 2017 – slightly weaker than the third quarter’s 6.8% rate.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) made no changes to the purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in the 1-3 and 3-5 year maturities for today.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) made no changes to the purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in the 1-3 and 3-5 year maturities for today.

As per Reuters news, US House Republicans are considering a stop-gap govt funding bill through Feb 16. If approved, it will be fourth such measure to

As per Reuters news, US House Republicans are considering a stop-gap govt funding bill through Feb 16. If approved, it will be fourth such measure to keep govt operating since October.  Also, it is being reported that Democrats may withdraw support if the "Dreamer" immigration legislation is not addressed.   

China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) dipped from previous 9.8% to 7.9% in December

Reuters reporting the statement issued from the 'Co-chairs' on North Korea, following their meeting in Vancouver. Key Points: “Participants in N K

Reuters reporting the statement issued from the 'Co-chairs' on North Korea, following their meeting in Vancouver.Key Points:“Participants in N Korea meeting agree to consider unilateral sanctions and further diplomatic actions that go beyond UN resolutions. Participants commit to building global capacity to effectively implement sanctions and prevent proliferation financing, including from criminal activities and cyber operations. Participants vow to counter North Korea's maritime smuggling, including with measures to stop its illegal use of "ship-to-ship transfers". Meeting on North Korea vows to support progress in inter-Korean dialogue in hopes that it leads to sustained easing of tensions. Participants agree diplomatic solution is both essential and possible North Korea meeting recognizes the importance and special responsibility of China and Russia in contributing to a long-term solution on the Korean peninsula.”

The EUR/USD rose to a fresh three-year high of 1.2323 a few minutes ago only to fall back below 1.23 levels, indicating the overbought technical condi

EUR fades spike to a fresh 3-year high of 1.2323. Inside day doji candle indicates bull market exhaustion/indecision in the marketplace. German political uncertainty, dovish talk from the ECB could hurt the EUR. The EUR/USD rose to a fresh three-year high of 1.2323 a few minutes ago only to fall back below 1.23 levels, indicating the overbought technical conditions are likely coming into play. The failure to hold above 1.23 levels adds credence to bull market exhaustion shown by yesterdays inside day doji candle. A close today below 1.2195 would confirm bearish doji/bearish inside day candle reversal and could yield a deeper pullback in the EUR/USD in the short-term. A 100-pip drop from the current level of 1.2290 cannot be ruled out, given the European Central Bank is unlikely to ditch a pledge to keep buying bonds at next week's meeting. Three sources close to the matter told Reuters that rate-setters need more time to assess the Euro exchange rate and an outlook for the economy. Also, In an interview published late on Tuesday, Bundesbank head and ECB's Governing Council member, Jens Weidmann, seemed to rule out a rate hike this year. Further, the uncertainty surrounding the German Chancellor Merkel's ability to form a coalition government could also become a reason for the technical pullback in EUR/USD. That said, the dips could be short-lived unless there is a sudden and significant rise in the 10-year US-German bond yield spread.EUR/USD Technical LevelsA move above 1.2323 (Asian session high, 3-year high) would open doors in 1.2377 (161.8% Fib extension of the November low-high-December low) and 1.24 levels (zero levels). On the downside, a break below 1.2254 (session low) could yield pullback 1.2209 (5-day MA) and 1.2195 (previous day's low).  

The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making comments following the conclusion of the meeting on North K

The US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making comments following the conclusion of the meeting on North Korea in Vancouver.Key Headlines:The world will not accept a nuclear-armed North Korea.  Vancouver meeting agreed that China and Russia must fully apply UN sanctions on North Korea. 'We do not seek to interfere with legitimate shipping activities."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.4335 vs. previous day's fix of 6.4372. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.4335 vs. previous day's fix of 6.4372. 

AUD/USD cut through resistance at 0.7978 (76.4% Fib R of Sep-Dec sell-off) and almost tested 0.80 levels after the data released in Australia showed t

AUD catches a bid on upbeat Aussie home loans data. AUD/USD nears 0.80, but is vulnerable to technical corrections. AUD/USD cut through resistance at 0.7978 (76.4% Fib R of Sep-Dec sell-off) and almost tested 0.80 levels after the data released in Australia showed the value of home loan lending rose for the second month in November. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), total lending rose by 2.3% to $33.507 billion in seasonally adjusted terms, beating the estimated drop of 0.2% by a big margin. The details reveal a rise in owner-occupier and investor demand for home loans. The upbeat data masked the overbought conditions as shown by the daily RSI, and helped the Aussie dollar near 0.80 levels. A break above the psychological hurdle looks like a done deal, although the sustainability of gains is under question, given the currency pair looks overdu a for technical correction. That said, the dips are likely to be short-lived as momentum studies -  5, 10 & 20 DMAs trend north.AUD/USD Technical LevelsA break above 0.80 (psychological hurdle) would open doors for 0.8037 (Sept. 21 high) and 0.8066 (Jul. 27 high). On the other hand, a failure to hold above 0.7978 (76.4% Fib R of Sep-Dec sell-off) could yield a pullback to 0.7943 (5-day MA) and 0.7894 (10-day MA).

Analysts at Nomura offered their preview for the Fed Beige Book. Key Quotes: "The Beige Book prepared for the upcoming 30-31 January FOMC meeting wi

Analysts at Nomura offered their preview for the Fed Beige Book.Key Quotes:"The Beige Book prepared for the upcoming 30-31 January FOMC meeting will likely reflect continued growth at a “modest to moderate pace” in December and mid-January." "The report could contain useful anecdotal evidence on local business leader expectations for the recently passed tax law." "Moreover, some business contacts, particularly in the eastern districts, may have views on how disruptive the recent winter storms were for economic activity." "Overall, incoming data have maintained economic momentum going into 2018 with solid readings on vehicle sales, employment growth and business surveys."

Economists from 10 of 11 primary dealers of Canadian government securities surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) expect Bank of Canada (BOC) to ra

Economists from 10 of 11 primary dealers of Canadian government securities surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) expect Bank of Canada (BOC) to raise rates by 25 basis points today to 1.25 percent from 1 percent.  Economists believe that a strong labor market, upbeat inflation will overshadow risks posed by potential US withdrawal from NAFTA.  WSJ says the 11th primary dealer - HSBC Canada - did not participate in the survey.   

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.41, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 110.56 and low at 110.26. Following from yesterday's comm

USD/JPY is heavily bearish and 110.32 could be fragile. USD/JPY MA's signal a break lower. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.41, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 110.56 and low at 110.26. Following from yesterday's comments from Kuroda who hit the wires when he reiterated his commitments that he will continue to pursue policies that will push inflation toward the 2% target, USD/JPY traded between 110.24/98 overnight, closing at 110.37, but for the most part was consolidating above 110.32 NY session low, the 100% Fibo target off the Dec 12-14 drop.US yields subdued recovery post softer yields in EuropeAnalysts at Westpac noted that US yields lifted to effectively unchanged (2.55%) after a pre-US open drift to test 2.52% on the back of softer yields in Europe (Bunds 56bps, 10yr Gilts 1.30%). "The pullback in Bunds and Gilts were due to a notably less hawkish tone from ECB officials today and UK’s CPI edged below estimates, affirming the likely peak in inflation. The US 10-30yr spread moving below 30bps was a clear point of interest," the analysts added.USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik explained that, technically, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair remains biased lower, as the 100 SMA extended its bearish slope below the 200 SMA and both far above the current level, while technical indicators hover within negative territory after correcting oversold conditions. "This week low at 110.32 is the support to break to confirm another leg lower," Valeria added.

Australia Home Loans above forecasts (-0.2%) in November: Actual (2.1%)

Australia Investment Lending for Homes fell from previous 1.6% to 1.5% in November

The number of new graduate jobs fell for first time since the financial crisis as leading recruiters downgrade hiring plans due Brexit uncertainty say

The number of new graduate jobs fell for first time since the financial crisis as leading recruiters downgrade hiring plans due Brexit uncertainty says a survey of the UK’s leading 100 graduate recruiters. The survey showed that private sector employers cut their recruitment by an average of 10% in 2016-17 compared with the previous year. Comments from Martin Birchall, the managing director of High Fliers Research, which conducted the survey are crossing the wires via The Guardian - Its clear from our latest research that the uncertainty caused by Brexit has already hit the graduate job market,  Although employers in a number of key industries and business sectors are hoping to increase their graduate recruitment again in 2018, the outlook of many recruiters remains cautious for the year ahead UK's accounting and professional service firms, financial services companies and investment banks scaled back their recruitment targets by 17% following the Brexit vote.  

Analysts at Nomura offered their model projection for today's USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Our model1 projects the fix to be 35 pips lower than the previou

Analysts at Nomura offered their model projection for today's USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 35 pips lower than the previous fix (6.4337 from 6.4372) and 29 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.4366. The basket implied change is 35 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.4331 from 6.4366)."

Analysts at Westpac explained that sentiment has continued to recover from the weakness seen in the September quarter last year, bolstered by a less t

Analysts at Westpac explained that sentiment has continued to recover from the weakness seen in the September quarter last year, bolstered by a less threatening outlook for interest rates and improving confidence around the economy and jobs. Key Quotes:"While the mood is ‘cautiously optimistic’ rather than buoyant, this is the best monthly index read since late 2013 and the most positive start to a calendar year since 2010. The consumer mood has posted a clear improvement since the September quarter. The average Index reading over the last three months is 6.3% above the average in July-September last year. That in turn points to some recovery in spending which saw a disturbing slump in the third quarter, a view broadly consistent with recent more positive updates on retail sales and vehicle purchases. However, the degree to which spending improves still looks likely to be constrained with the survey detail suggesting family finances are still under pressure, limited scope for further reductions in saving to support spending, and high debt levels an ongoing concern for many households."

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price: -2.2% (December) vs previous -0.9%

Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at 5.7%, above forecasts (-1.4%) in November

Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at 4.1%, above expectations (-0.7%) in November

Analysts at ANZ explained that the USD sell-off paused for a breather.  Key Quotes: "It was helped by comments from Japanese FM Aso that sudden move

Analysts at ANZ explained that the USD sell-off paused for a breather. Key Quotes:"It was helped by comments from Japanese FM Aso that sudden moves in currencies are a problem. This was backed up by ECB’s Villeroy saying the recent euro increase is a source of uncertainty and requires monitoring because of its possible downward effects on imported prices. The differing comments from ECB’s Hansson’s yesterday highlights a clear difference of opinion on the governing council, which may become amplified in coming weeks. The ECB press conference on 25th January will therefore be eagerly awaited. Prior to that, the SPD in Germany is meeting on 21st January to decide whether or not to progress with coalition talks in Germany. Whilst not a given, it is generally thought that coalition talks will progress. Elsewhere, German and Italian inflation remained subdued, but headlines that the ECB is unlikely to drop its pledge to keep buying bonds until inflation heads to target next week contributed to early weakness in global yields. Other more supportive comments from Villeroy then eased this pressure. European yields finished down 2-4bps, but the US 10-year was up 1bps to 2.56% at time of writing. Equity markets had a positive session too, but commodity prices eased – oil and soft commodities led the decline."

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence fell from previous 3.6% to 1.8% in January

Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook on the NZD/USD. Key Quotes: "NZD/USD 1 day: A stretched NZD looks set to consolidate towards 0.7230 after

Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook on the NZD/USD.Key Quotes:"NZD/USD 1 day:A stretched NZD looks set to consolidate towards 0.7230 after the foray above 0.7300 faltered, despite retracement attraction at 0.7375.NZD/USD 1-3 month: Near-term potential to reach the 0.7400-0.7500 area during the weeks ahead if the US dollar remains depressed. However, if the RBNZ remains firmly on hold throughout 2018 and the US dollar eventually rises on the expectation of further Fed interest rate hikes in 2018, then NZD/USD should fall to 0.67 over the next quarter. (12 Jan)"

AUD/USD was consolidating between 0.7936/75 in NY and is trading in early Asia trading at 0.7960, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high a

AUD/USD bears and bulls can't outpace the other.AUD/USD has room to extend above 0.8000 still.AUD/USD was consolidating between 0.7936/75 in NY and is trading in early Asia trading at 0.7960, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7964 and low at 0.7956. AUD/USD was taking advantage of a weak dollar at the start of this week although the upside momentum was halted in late Asia and with Europeans taking the pair down to 0.7938 as Brent fell off a cliff.  Forex today: US traders clean up the mess returning from holidaysWestpac's outlookAnalysts at Westpac explained that AUD/USD should consolidate between 0.7920 and the key 0.7980-00 area in advance of both consumer confidence and Thursday’s employment report.AUD/USD 1-3 month: Over the course of Q1 2018, we look for AUD/USD to return to the 0.75 area seen in early Dec 2017. This should occur if interest rate markets move closer to Westpac’s view of no change in the RBA cash rate this year and if the prospect of increased supply cools the recent commodity price rally. But a firmer US dollar is probably necessary to get as far as 0.75 (9 Jan)" For today, we have the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment in focus.AUD/USD levelsValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, a bullish 20 SMA extended its advance below the current level and above the mentioned Fibonacci resistance, while technical indicators hold directionless near overbought readings. "The pair has room to extend its advance on a break above 0.8000 a major psychological burden  that once cleared, will probably result in a stronger advance."