위험 경고: CFD는 복잡한 구조의 금융상품으로서 레버리지로 인해 손실이 급속히 커질 위험이 있습니다. 본 업체에서 CFD를 거래하는 개인 투자자 계좌 중 83% 가 손실을 보고 있습니다. 본인이 CFD 상품을 제대로 이해하고 있는지, 높은 손실 위험을 감당할 수 있는지 고려해야 합니다.
위험 경고: CFD는 복잡한 구조의 금융상품으로서 레버리지로 인해 손실이 급속히 커질 위험이 있습니다. 본 업체에서 CFD를 거래하는 개인 투자자 계좌 중 83% 가 손실을 보고 있습니다. 본인이 CFD 상품을 제대로 이해하고 있는지, 높은 손실 위험을 감당할 수 있는지 고려해야 합니다.

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목요일, 11월 14, 2019

Crude oil prices gained traction during the first half of the day and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached a fresh weekly high of $57.7

Uninspiring data from China doesn't allow crude oil prices to rise.EIA says US crude oil stocks increased by 2.2 million barrels.OPEC kept 2020 global oil demand growth outlook unchanged. Crude oil prices gained traction during the first half of the day and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached a fresh weekly high of $57.75 before reversing its direction during the American trading hours. Earlier in the day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest report announced that it kept its forecast for 2020 global oil demand growth unchanged at 1%, or 1.08 million barrels per day (bpd) to provide a boost to crude oil. Furthermore, OPEC noted that the surplus in 2020 would be around 70,000 bpd if OPEC kept the production at November's rate, down from 340,000 bpd surplus in September report. Oil production and inventories continue to rise in US However, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its weekly publication said that crude oil stocks in the United States increased by 2.2 million barrels per day in the week ending November 8 and crude production rose by 200,000 barrels per day to a weekly record of 12.8 million bpd to weigh on the WTI. As of writing, the WTI was down 0.6% on the day at $56.95. Furthermore, the data from China on Thursday showed that both industrial production and retail sales increased less than expected on a yearly basis in October to revive concerns over weakening energy demand in world's second-largest oil consumer.  Technical levels to watch for  

The EUR/USD pair bounced from near the lowest level since early October and climbed to 1.1020, hitting a fresh daily high. As of writing, trades at 1.

Greenback loses momentum across the board and favors EUR/USD recovery. Pair still faces downside pressure but it seems alleviated while above 1.1000.The EUR/USD pair bounced from near the lowest level since early October and climbed to 1.1020, hitting a fresh daily high. As of writing, trades at 1.1015 about to post the second daily gain out of the last nine trading days.  The greenback weakened amid lower US yields. The 10-year dropped to 1.80%, reaching the lowest since November 7, moving away from the 2% area. Many officials from the Federal Reserve, including Chairman Powell spoke in public today offering no surprises and did not alter policy expectations significantly.  Market participants also ignored US data. The PPI index for October came in modestly below expectations. Tomorrow in the Eurozone inflation and trade data are due while in the US the key report will be retail sales.  Levels to watch   The euro offered the first sign of a potential bottom near 1.1000. It is recovering ground but so far limited by 1.1020 and moving very slowly suggesting that there still is some bearish potential. A close below would clear the way to more weakness ahead. The next strong support stands around 1.0975. On the upside, the next resistance might be seen at 1.1025; above more gains ahead seem likely. The next resistance stands at 1.1045.  

Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Thursday noted that he doesn't expect to see a recession in 2020 despite the sluggi

Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Thursday noted that he doesn't expect to see a recession in 2020 despite the sluggish growth while adding that he thinks the economy will grow a little more than 2% in 2019. "The consumer is in pretty good shape," Kaplan stated and said the record amount of the US corporate debt is worrying.  The US Dollar Index ignored these comments and was last down 0.15% on a daily basis at 98.17.

The yellow metal is trading in a bull flag, making lower lows and lower highs as it trading below the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages (DMAs).

Gold is gaining steam for the third consecutive day. The market needs to overcome the 1475 resistance.  Gold daily chart   The yellow metal is trading in a bull flag, making lower lows and lower highs as it trading below the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages (DMAs).    Gold four-hour chart   Gold is challenging the 1475 resistance and the 50 SMA on the four-hour chart. This is a key level to break for a potential move higher towards the 1490/1500 resistance zone. A rejection at 1475 would likely lead to a retest of the 1460 and 1450 support levels.    Additional key levels  

"Monetary policy is trying to keep the overall economy in a good place," John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said at a c

"Monetary policy is trying to keep the overall economy in a good place," John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said at a conference on Asian economic policy organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "If there is a need to deliver more stimulus, there is policy space," Williams added. "It's also important to talk about how fiscal policy could play a more supportive role in a downturn. Monetary policy will be more effective if they work together." The US Dollar Index largely ignored these comments and was last down 0.12% on the day at 98.20. Below are some additional key quotes, per Reuters. "Reserves are now at levels that are consistent with ample reserves." "Need further research into resilience of repo market." "Monetary policy should not get caught up in ups and downs on trade, Brexit; want to take a longer view." "Monetary policy can anchor inflation expectations."

ABN AMRO Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen said the latest macroeconomic data releases from China suggest that China has incentive to end tariff t

ABN AMRO Senior Economist Arjen van Dijkhuizen said the latest macroeconomic data releases from China suggest that China has incentive to end tariff tit-for-tat. Key quotes "After a re-escalation of the US-China trade/tech conflict last May, over the past months we have seen tentative signs of de-escalation. That suggests some shift of political calculus in both Washington and Beijing, with US presidential elections looming in November next year." "Both countries have granted tariff exemptions to each other. Last month, US president Trump announced a so-called ‘Phase one-deal’. That entailed the US from refraining from further tariff hikes and China to step up agricultural imports from the US. This partial trade deal allegedly should be signed by Trump and Xi later this year, on a time and place still to be announced." "The mid November APEC summit in Chile, where both gentlemen were supposed to meet, was cancelled for domestic reasons. The latest macro data suggest that not only the US but also China has a clear incentive to at least put an end to the tariff tit-for-tat, with new US tariffs due on 15 December without a short-term deal. Uncertainties remain however, for instance on how much rollback on existing tariffs could be agreed on and under what conditions (such as an enforcement mechanism). Given that both parties remain wide apart on some fundamental issues, a comprehensive deal still looks out of sight for now and strategic tensions between the two will likely linger."

USD/CAD has been moving steadily higher over the last few sessions. Now the price is headed toward two trendlines and a resistance point at 1.3291. Th

USD/CAD is just above flat for the session and tentatively moving higher.There are two trendlines meeting with a resistance zone close to where the price is now.Daily USD/CAD Chart USD/CAD has been moving steadily higher over the last few sessions. Now the price is headed toward two trendlines and a resistance point at 1.3291. The trendline on the topside only has two touches but the internal trendline coming from the low seen in July has been respected slightly more. The resistance horizontal line is just under 1.33 and encompasses most of the tests of the psychological area. Additional Levels  

The USD/JPY pair came under renewed bearish pressure during the American tracing hours and slumped to its lowest level in ten days at 108.25 as the di

Political jitters in the US weigh on the market sentiment. 10-year US Treasury bond yield is losing more than 4%. US Dollar Index turns negative on the day below 98.20.The USD/JPY pair came under renewed bearish pressure during the American tracing hours and slumped to its lowest level in ten days at 108.25 as the dismal market mood allowed the JPY to continue to gather strength against its rivals as a safe haven. As of writing, the pair was trading at 108.35, losing 0.43% on a daily basis. Political headlines weigh on sentiment US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi claimed on Thursday President Donald Trump admitted to bribery after the Democratic-controlled House held its first public hearing in the impeachment inquiry. "The bribe is to grant or withhold military assistance in return for a public statement of a fake investigation into the elections. That's bribery," Pelosi told reporters, per Reuters. "What the president has admitted to and says it's perfect, I say it's perfectly wrong. It's bribery." This development triggered fresh risk-off flows and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which was last down around 4% on a daily basis, extended its slide while major equity indexes in the US continued to push lower. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index struggled to stay in the positive territory amid plummeting T-bond yields and caused the bearish pressure on the pair to remain intact. At the moment, the index is down 0.16% on the day at 98.16. Technical levels to watch for  

Cable has been in a consolidation phase ever since Boris Johnson and the EU announced a deal had been agreed between the pair. Now it seems that the p

GBP/USD trades 0.19% higher on the session at 1.2878.There is a flag consoldation pattern and cable is mid range.GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart Cable has been in a consolidation phase ever since Boris Johnson and the EU announced a deal had been agreed between the pair. Now it seems that the pair is looking for more information or a decisive USD move to break from the consolidation pattern. The red lines on the chart below represent the chart pattern, while the black lines are support and resistance levels. The complete low of the whole pattern is 1.2768 and if this breaks it would be a pretty bearish scenario. On the topside the main 1.30 psychological resistance has been a tough nut to crack. For now, watch out for a test of 1.29 as some USD weakness has entered the market. GBP/USD Daily Chart Flag Pattern Additional Levels  

Speaking at the start of a conference on Asian economic policy at the San Francisco Fed, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New Y

Speaking at the start of a conference on Asian economic policy at the San Francisco Fed, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reiterated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts were insurance against the ongoing and potential risks and explained that ongoing uncertainty on trade and geopolitics was making businesses cautious and conservative. "The Fed will adjust policy if there is a material change to the outlook," Williams added. "Too-low inflation is a greater concern than too-high inflation." The greenback failed to capitalize on these comments and the US Dollar Index was last down 0.12% on the day at 98.20.

The pound is currently correcting the October’s rally in the 1.2800-1.3000 price zone. GBP/USD, in last month, reached levels not seen since mid-May 2019.

GBP/USD got a push to the upside just before the London close this Thursday. A daily close above 1.2874 could strengthen the bullish side.  GBP/USD daily chart   The pound is currently correcting the October’s rally in the 1.2800-1.3000 price zone. GBP/USD, in last month, reached levels not seen since mid-May 2019.      GBP/USD four-hour chart   GBP/USD is trying to break above the 1.2874/1.2910 resistance zone. The spot is trading above the 50 and 100 SMAs, suggesting that bulls are gaining ground. If the market breaks the 1.2910 resistance, the spot could reach the 1.2950 level on the way up, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      GBP/USD 30-minute chart   The market is trading within is weekly range. However, if the market manages to stay above the 1.2874 level, it can strengthen the bull case. Support is seen at the 1.2834 level.        Additional key levels  

United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 1.535% to 1.565%

While testifying before the US House Budget Committee, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, said that there i

While testifying before the US House Budget Committee, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, said that there is nothing in today's economy that "is booming." Below are some additional key takeaways, via Reuters. "October monthly jobs report was very solid." "Generally free and fair trade is a good thing." "It is very, very important the public understands the fed operates on a non-partisan basis." "The US economy is the star economy globally these days." "Do not see probability of a recession as elevated at the moment." "This US economic expansion is notable for not having sectors that are overheating." "US consumer sector is very strong." "US economic expansion is on a sustainable footing." "In principle, there is no reason the US economic expansion cannot last. "The Fed's outlook is for continued moderate growth." "The Fed thinks it is in the neighborhood of maximum employment." "Passage of USMCA would remove uncertainty, be a very constructive thing for the US economy."

The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). This Thursday, the market is remaining trapped in

EUR/USD remains trapped in a very narrow range in the second part of the week. The level to beat for bears is the 1.0995 support level.  EUR/USD daily chart   The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). This Thursday, the market is remaining trapped in the range of the last 24 hours.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   The market remains under bearish pressure below the 1.1024 resistance level. The spot is likely set for an extension of the down move towards the 1.0995, 1.0966 and 1.0920 support levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      EUR/USD 30-minute chart   The Euro is under pressure below its falling 200 SMA. Resistance can be seen at the 1.1024, 1.1052 and 1.1075 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.     Additional key levels  
In comments made today the House Representative Speaker Pelosi said Trump has admitted to bribery In reaction to these comments there has been a drop in yields along with some downside in the USD. Further to these comments Pelosi also added The USMCA deal breakthrough could be imminent Updates to follow...

The AUD/USD pair keep falling after the beginning of the American session and printed a fresh four-week low at 0.6768. As of writing trades at 0.6775,

US Dollar remains steady despite all Fed talk. Aussie remains under pressure after weak jobs data from Australia. The AUD/USD pair keep falling after the beginning of the American session and printed a fresh four-week low at 0.6768. As of writing trades at 0.6775, about to post the fifth consecutive daily decline.  Among majors, the Aussie is the worst performer affected by Australian economic data. The employment report for October showed an unexpected contraction in jobs of 19K while the unemployment rate rose from 5.2% to 5.3%. “All up, we still don't think the RBA (Reserva Bank of Australia) cuts in December. There is a lot of volatility in these numbers, so it won't be enough for the Bank to act. Still, the negative prints across the board do suggest the RBA will need to deliver another cut, we think in February 20”, explained analysts at TD Securities.  Also, the US Dollar continues to trade stronger against commodity currencies, adding more pressure to the AUD/USD amid uncertainty around the US/China trade deal. Today several FOMC officials, including Chairman Powell spoke in public having no relevant impact.  From a technical perspective, AUD/USD continues to move with a clear bearish bias showing oversold conditions in the short-term but so far no sign of a consolidation. The next support area might be seen at 0.6760, followed by 0.6740/45. On the upside, the immediate resistance is located at 0.6795 and above at 0.6810.   

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above forecasts (1.649M) in November 8: Actual (2.219M)

Fed's Powell is testifying again today in front of the joint committee and here are some of his key comments listed below: The Fed moves in repo marke

Fed's Powell is testifying again today in front of the joint committee and here are some of his key comments listed below: The Fed moves in repo market have no effect on the economy. He also said the Fed sees less room for rates cuts in the low rate environment. Investment in infrastructure could be very helpful for the US economy and well-financed infrastructure can contribute to increasing productivity in the US economy. The Fed is doing a lot of forensic work to understand liquidity issues in repo market . He also said there is nothing in the economy that is booming this is a sustainable picture. The October monthly jobs was "very solid",  

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 3B, above forecasts (0B) in November 8

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says US trade tensions have contributed to manufacturing recession this year. The Fed does not yet see trade tensions

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell says US trade tensions have contributed to manufacturing recession this year. The Fed does not yet see trade tensions spilling over into the broader economy. The Economic effects of tariffs are not currently that large in the contect of the whole US economy.

Colombia Industrial output (YoY) up to 0.3% in September from previous 0.1%

DXY (US Dollar Index) is trading in a bull trend above the main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). This Thursday the Greenback is once again challenging the

DXY is trading in a very tight range in Thursday’s New York session.The level to beat for bulls is the 98.40 resistance level.   DXY daily chart   DXY (US Dollar Index) is trading in a bull trend above the main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). This Thursday the Greenback is once again challenging the 98.40 level while trading just above the 50 DMA.   DXY 4-hour chart   DXY keeps pressuring the 98.40 resistance. If the sellers give up and the market breaks above the 98.40 resistance on a daily basis, there is scope for further upside towards the 98.65 and the 99.26 resistances.    DXY 30-minute chart   DXY is trading above its main SMAs, suggesting a bullish bias in the short term. Support is seen at the 98.30, 98.20 and 98.10 levels.      Additional key levels  

Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 9.5% to 6.9% in September

Colombia Trade Balance climbed from previous $-1426.6M to $-916.2M in September

WTI has been on the rise today and trades 0.40% higher on the session. This is due to the OPEC report published earlier. Over the last few days the pr

Price looks to be heading toward the USD 58 per barrel psychological resistance. The internat trendline and 61.8% Fibonacci level match slight higher up. Spot WTI Daily Chart WTI has been on the rise today and trades 0.40% higher on the session. This is due to the OPEC report published earlier.  Over the last few days the price was not able to break USD 47.50 per barrel as price bounced off it eight times. The chart below looks slightly messy but it does show there is some traffic in the way of a move higher. The channel in red was created from an internal trendline which originated from the low back in August. It is well respected as it was used as support and resistance six times. Now above price at the moment there is also a 61.8% Fibonacci level and price could meet the internal trendline and Fib level at the same time.   Additional Levels  

WTI has been on the rise today and trades 0.40% higher on the session. This is due to the OPEC report published earlier. Over the last few days, the p

There are two trendlines converging very close to one another on the daily chart.USD/CAD is trading 0.09% higher as commodities currencies suffer today.USD/CAD Daily Chart WTI has been on the rise today and trades 0.40% higher on the session. This is due to the OPEC report published earlier.  Over the last few days, the price was not able to break USD 47.50 per barrel as price bounced off it eight times. The chart below looks slightly messy but it does show there is some traffic in the way of a move higher. The channel in red was created from an internal trendline which originated from the low back in August. It is well respected as it was used as support and resistance six times. Now above the price at the moment, there is also a 61.8% Fibonacci level and the price could meet the internal trendline and Fib level at the same time.   Additional Levels  

Wall Street's main indexes started the day with small losses on Thursday as investors stay on the sidelines while waiting for fresh developments surro

Energy Index rises on Thursday supported by recovering crude oil prices.Falling US Treasury bond yields weigh on financial shares.Wall Street's main indexes started the day with small losses on Thursday as investors stay on the sidelines while waiting for fresh developments surrounding the United States (US)-China trade dispute. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both down 0.05% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite was erasing 0.17%. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Energy Index is up 0.4% to lead the winners supported by rising crude oil prices. On the other hand, with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield falling more than 2% for the second straight day, the Financials Index is down 0.2% while the risk-sensitive Technology ındex is erasing 0.4%. Markets will be watching Jerome Powell's, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, testimony before the US House Budget Committee but he is expected to deliver nearly identical remarks to the ones he delivered to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday.

US equities gauged by the DowJones are correcting lower on Thursday after reaching record highs beyond the 27,800 handle on Wednesday. Dow Jones Index

DowJones trades flat following the opening bell on Thursday.US-China trade jitters remain unabated so far.Fed’s Powell will testify to Congress later today.US equities gauged by the DowJones are correcting lower on Thursday after reaching record highs beyond the 27,800 handle on Wednesday. Dow Jones Index looks to Powell, data Investors’ sentiment remains depressed in the second half of the week and it is driving US stocks lower against the backdrop of the recent pick up in concerns surrounding the US-China negotiations under the ‘Phase One’ deal. Also adding to the downbeat mood, Initial Claims rose to multi-year highs at 225K during last week, clearly missing expectations; while Producer Prices surprised to the upside rising 0.4% inter-month in October and 1.1% from a year earlier. Core prices also came in above consensus at 0.3% MoM and 1.6% YoY. Looking ahead, DowJones is expected to trade on a cautious/weak fashion ahead of the testimony by Fed’s J.Powell to the House Budget Committee. DowJones faces the next interim resistance at 27,806.40 (all-time high Nov.13) while on the downside the next support emerges at the 10-day SMA at 27,536.30 seconded by July’s high at 27,398.7 and then the September peak at 27,306.7.

The NZD/USD pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's post-RBNZ upsurge to over one-week tops and started retreating from a resistance marke

Bulls failed to capitalize on the post-RBNZ upsurge to over one-week tops.Subsequent weakness might turn the pair vulnerable to retest 0.6300 mark.The NZD/USD pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's post-RBNZ upsurge to over one-week tops and started retreating from a resistance marked by 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 0.6466-0.6322 recent downfall.
 
The intraday downfall has now dragged the pair to fresh session lows, around the 0.6375 confluence support, comprising of 200-hour SMA and 38.2% Fibo. level, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have been drifting lower in the bearish territory and lost positive momentum on the daily chart, shifting the near-term outlook back in favour of bearish traders.
 
Some follow-through selling below the mentioned confluence support will reinforce the negative bias and accelerate the slide back towards mid-0.6300s en-route weekly lows support near the 0.6325 region.
 
On the flip side, the 0.6400 handle, coinciding with 50% Fibo. level now seems to act as an immediate resistance, above which the stage seems set for a move towards challenging the 0.6440-50 heavy supply zone. NZD/USD 1-hourly chart  

According to Reuters, Jerome Powell's, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, prepared remarks to be delivered to US House Bud

According to Reuters, Jerome Powell's, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, prepared remarks to be delivered to US House Budget Committee on Thursday will be nearly identical to the ones he delivered to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Wednesday. "The Fed sees a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labour market and inflation near symmetric 2% goal as most likely," Powell said. "Sluggish economic growth abroad, trade developments pose ongoing risks." Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index continues to move sideways near 98.30, struggling to find direction in the near-term.

The pound is currently correcting last month’s rally in the 1.2800-1.3000 price zone. GBP/USD, in October, hit levels not seen since mid-May 2019.

GBP/USD remains sidelined in the New York session. The level to beat for bears is the 1.2834 support.  GBP/USD daily chart   The pound is currently correcting last month’s rally in the 1.2800-1.3000 price zone. GBP/USD, in October, hit levels not seen since mid-May 2019.      GBP/USD four-hour chart   GBP/USD is trading in a tight range between the 1.2834 support and the 1.2874 resistance. The spot is capped by downward sloping 50 and 100 SMAs suggesting that the spot might continue to drift lower in the medium term.      GBP/USD 30-minute chart   The market is keeping the weekly range theme intact. If the bulls give up, the spot can slide towards 1.2790 support. Resistance is seen at the 1.2874/1.2900 zone, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.         Additional key levels  

In his prepared speech delivered at a conference in Philadelphia, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans refrained from commenting on th

In his prepared speech delivered at a conference in Philadelphia, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans refrained from commenting on the near-term policy outlook or the current state of the US economy, as reported by Reuters. Later in the session, markets will be paying close attention to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the US House Budget Committee. Ahead of this event, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, is posting small daily gains at 98.35.

While speaking at a conference in Frankfurt on Thursday, Dutch Central Bank chief and European Central Bank Governing Council Klaas Knot argued that f

While speaking at a conference in Frankfurt on Thursday, Dutch Central Bank chief and European Central Bank Governing Council Klaas Knot argued that financial conditions are not currently an impediment to growth or to a rise in inflation in the eurozone. "Policymakers should act with more caution in using unconventional tools subject to more uncertainty, act more forcefully with conventional instruments," Knot added.  The EUR/USD pair edged higher in the last minutes and turned flat on the day at 1.1005.

In his prepared remarks delivered at Cato Institue's 37th Annual Monetary Conference, Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board,

In his prepared remarks delivered at Cato Institue's 37th Annual Monetary Conference, Richard H. Clarida, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, said the fact that US inflation expectations reside at a low end of the range is consistent with the Fed's price stability mandate. "No evidence rising wages are putting excessive upward pressure on inflation," Clarida added. "The Fed's framework review is reassessing case for balance sheet policies and forward guidance as well as other tools in the event of another downturn." The US Dollar Index largely ignored these comments and was last up 0.04% on the day at 98.35.

The Kiwi Dollar is expected to tarde within the broad 0.6350/0.6465 range vs. the greenback in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. K

The Kiwi Dollar is expected to tarde within the broad 0.6350/0.6465 range vs. the greenback in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “After rocketing to 0.6422 yesterday, NZD consolidated and traded sideways. Upward momentum is still positive and there is scope for NZD to test 0.6435 first before a pull-back can be expected (next resistance at 0.6465 is not expected to come into the picture). Support is at 0.6395 followed by 0.6375”. Next 1-3 weeks: “RBNZ kept its rates unchanged and NZD just surged above the 0.6400 “key resistance’ level. The price action suggests that the ‘downward phase’ that started on Monday (11 Nov, spot at 0.6340) ended abruptly and prematurely (we were expecting NZD to trade towards 0.6300). While it is too soon to expect a sustained rally, NZD could extend its gains in the coming days. That said, the early November peak near 0.6465 is acting as a solid resistance and this level is unlikely to yield so easily. To put it another way, we view the current movement as part of a broader sideway-trading range even though the immediate bias is for NZD to test the top of the expected 0.6350/0.6465 range”.  

The USD/CAD pair gained some follow-through traction for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday and climbed to fresh one-month tops, around the 1.3

The USD/CAD pair climbed to over one-month tops, around the 1.3270 region.Technical set-up support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.The USD/CAD pair gained some follow-through traction for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday and climbed to fresh one-month tops, around the 1.3265-70 region during the early North-American session.
 
Technical indicators on the daily chart have been gaining traction and support prospects for an extension of the ongoing appreciating move towards the very important 200-day SMA resistance near the 1.3275 region.
 
Some follow-through buying beyond the mentioned barrier has the potential to lift the pair further towards the 1.3300 handle en-route five-month-old descending trend-line resistance near the 1.3325-30 region.
 
On the flip side, immediate support is pegged near the 1.3235 horizontal zone and is followed by the 1.3200 round-figure mark, which if broken might accelerate the slide further towards the 1.3170-65 support zone.
 
Failure to defend the latter will negate any prospects for any further near-term positive move and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide further towards challenging the 1.3100 round-figure mark. USD/CAD daily chart  

EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0999 Today Daily Change 26 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 1.1008 Trends Daily SMA20 1.1098 Daily SMA

EUR/USD remains well on the defensive and it has recorded fresh weekly lows in the 1.0990/85 band earlier in the session.That said, if the selling impetus picks up extra steam the next target will be at the 1.0930 region ahead of the 2019 low at 1.0879.On the flip side, immediately above emerges the 55-day SMA at 1.1035. A breakout of this level is needed to reassert the positive outlook and allow a potential move to the 1.1100 region.EUR/USD daily chart  

Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 98.38 Today Daily Change 13 Today Daily Change % 0.04 Today daily open 98.34 Trends Daily SMA20 97.74 Dai

The index is prolonging the sideline theme in the upper bound of the weekly range, with gains clearly capped by the 98.50 region.Further upside is seen testing the 99.00 neighbourhood ahead of 99.25 (October 8th peak).On the downside, a sustainable breach of the 55-day SMA in the 98.30 region should open the door for a move to the 100-day SMA at 97.97 ahead of a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop at 97.87.DXY daily chart  

Marijke Zewuster, head of emerging markets at ABN AMRO, suggests that unfortunately, approval of the pension reform and lower interest rates of Brazil

Marijke Zewuster, head of emerging markets at ABN AMRO, suggests that unfortunately, approval of the pension reform and lower interest rates of Brazilian economy have increasingly become a necessity to stop a further deterioration of the economy rather than a condition to kickstart it. Key Quotes “During the year we have lowered our growth forecast for 2019 several times, from an initial 2.5% at the start of the year to 1% currently. For the moment, we are sticking to our 1% growth forecast for 2019 and 2% for 2020. This means that we expect some growth acceleration in the second half, which will continue in 2020. This acceleration should come from slightly stronger consumption and investment growth, thanks to lower interest rates and some improvement in confidence levels.” “Still, as long as confidence fails to improve significantly, a more pronounced revival of depressed investments is not expected. Fiscal austerity will continue to hamper a stronger growth recovery, as will structural weaknesses such as low savings, low productivity and inadequate infrastructure. Given a variety of global uncertainties and domestic issues, risks still remain tilted to the downside.”

The lack of positive developments surrounding the United States (US)-China trade talks continues to weigh on the market sentiment and help the safe-ha

10-year US T-bond yield is down more than 2%.Wall Street looks to open modestly lower on Thursday.FOMC Chairman to testify before the US House Budget Committee.The lack of positive developments surrounding the United States (US)-China trade talks continues to weigh on the market sentiment and help the safe-haven JPY outperform its rivals. As of writing, the USD/JPY pair, which touched a fresh weekly low of 108.57 earlier in the session, was trading at 108.65, losing 0.15% on a daily basis. Dismal mood boost demand for JPY Reports suggesting that China is refusing to commit to $50 billion worth of agricultural imports from the United States caused worries over sides failing to finalize the phase-one of the trade deal to resurface and pushed investors away from risky assets. The dismal mood caused the 10-year US Treasury bond yields to fall sharply since the start of the week. As of writing, the 10-year T-bond yield was down .235% on a daily basis. Additionally, the S&P 500 Futures is down 0.2% to suggest that Wall Street will open in the negative territory. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index is capitalizing on the poor performance of major European currencies on Thursday to keep the pair's losses for the time being. Later in the session, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Jerome Powell will be testifying before the US House Budget Committee. In the meantime, the data from the US today revealed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in October following September's 0.3% decline but this reading had little to no impact on the USD's valuation. At the moment, the US Dollar Index is up 0.06% on the day at 98.38. Technical levels to watch for  

The dollar has pushed slightly higher following the data that beat expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in input prices of

US PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.4% vs expected 0.3% previous -0.3%. Core PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% vs expected 0.2%. PPI (YoY) (Oct) 1.1% vs expected 0.9%.The dollar has pushed slightly higher following the data that beat expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in input prices of raw, semi-finished or finished goods and services in America. Over the month of October, the dollar index fell 2.4% from 98.55 to 97.12.  This could contribute to the increase in PPI as buying goods from other nations becomes more expencive. Lasts month reading came in at -0.3% but the general trend has been mixed. The Fed will be looking at inflation figures but they have recently cut rates and today's reading is by no means a overshoot.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.683M, below expectations (1.687M) in November 1

Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) up to -0.1% in September from previous -0.3%

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) above forecasts (1.5%) in October: Actual (1.6%)

United States Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.1%, above forecasts (0.9%) in October

United States Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.3%) in October

United States Initial Jobless Claims above expectations (215K) in November 8: Actual (225K)

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.3% above expectations (0.2%) in October

Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in September: Actual (0.2%)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average came in at 217K, above expectations (214.622K) in November 8

Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank suggests that GBP has found support on the prediction that the Tory party may have enough support to form

Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank suggests that GBP has found support on the prediction that the Tory party may have enough support to form a majority government and is likely to continue to react positively to any news that suggests the PM Johnson’s hand is set to be strengthened. Key Quotes “A Tory majority, however, could still prove to be a Trojan horse for the pound.” “For GBP, any news that appears to increase the likelihood of a Tory majority is seen to be a positive factor. This may be in part due to the historic perception that a Tory government implies prudent budgetary management, but it is more likely related to PM Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement. Insofar as the PM has a deal with the EU, it would appear that a post-election Tory majority would finally ‘get Brexit done’. What this logic does not take into consideration, however, is that the trade negotiations still have to be tackled. If these are unsuccessful the UK may still face a disorderly Brexit at the end of the transition period in just over a year’s time.” “Since the Tory party has shed itself of many of its moderate MPs, there may be a greater risk that differences between a Johnson government and the EU will appear during the trade talks. In particular the EU has warned the UK against rolling back on regulation.” “Already differences could be appearing on workers’ rights and possibly on tax. If trade talks do not go well the risks of a no deal Brexit would again rise since a Tory majority with several Brexiteers in the cabinet could be disposed to this outcome. A Tory majority may therefore bring plenty of scope for GBP volatility next year.”

The USD/CHF pair maintained its offered bias through the mid-European session, albeit has managed to recover a part of its early lost ground to 1-1/2

Growing US-China trade pessimism continued benefitting the CHF’s safe-haven status.Sliding US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive and added to the selling bias.Investors now eye Powell’s second day of testimony, Fedspeaks for a fresh impetus.The USD/CHF pair maintained its offered bias through the mid-European session, albeit has managed to recover a part of its early lost ground to 1-1/2 week lows.
 
The pair extended its recent pullback from levels beyond the very important 200-day SMA and witnessed some follow-through selling for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. The prevalent risk-off mood continued benefitting traditional safe-haven currencies – including the Swiss franc – and was seen as one of the key factors exerting pressure on the major. Focus remains on trade developments Reports that the US-China trade talks have hit a snag on Chinese purchases of US farm products added to the recent pessimism and continued weighing on investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets. The flight to safety was reinforced by a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields, which kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and further collaborated to the pair's downfall.
 
The pair touched an intraday low level of 0.9870 but managed to find some support at lower levels after China's customs announced that they will be removing restrictions on the import of poultry meat from the United States, effective immediately.
 
However, the fact that the decision was already announced after the recent face-to-face trade talks allowed markets to ignore the headlines and thus, warrant some caution before positioning for any further recovery amid absent relevant market moving economic releases.
 
Moving ahead, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second day of testimony, followed by scheduled speeches by influential FOMC members might play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and eventually assist traders to grab some short-term opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $542.9B to $541.1B

Marijke Zewuster became Head of Emerging Markets at ABN AMRO, suggests that Brazil’s economic figures available for the third quarter and beyond indee

Marijke Zewuster became Head of Emerging Markets at ABN AMRO, suggests that Brazil’s economic figures available for the third quarter and beyond indeed point to a modest acceleration of growth with the forward-looking PMI indicator pointing to a recovery for some months now. Key Quotes “The manufacturing PMI rose from 49.9 in July to 52.5 in October, with 50 the threshold between growth and contraction. Consumer credit has been growing by over 10% yoy since November 2018 and rose by 15% in July. Private consumption will profit from this and from some improvement in employment figures. Retail sales increased by 2.6% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier In the first half of the year, the increase was only 0.7% yoy.” “While a rise in industrial confidence following the election of president Bolsonaro last year led to some revival of investments, industrial production only recently started to pick up. In September, industrial production moved back to positive territory compared to a year earlier.” “There were various factors behind the contraction in industrial production in the first half of 2019. The crisis in Argentina was negative for the automotive industry, while iron production was disrupted due to the collapse of an important dam.” “Although the recent pick-up in investments is encouraging, it will take a while to compensate for the accumulated decline of over 30% in the period between 2014 and 2017. The third quarter GDP figures will be published in early December and will provide more clarity about the extent of the recovery.”

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German GDP surprised to the upside at +0.1% q/q for Q3 (market -0.1%), managing to avoid a technical recession

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German GDP surprised to the upside at +0.1% q/q for Q3 (market -0.1%), managing to avoid a technical recession. Key Quotes “Q2 was revised down a touch though, from -0.1% to -0.2%. The details show increases across government spending, consumption, and exports in Q3, but the decline in business investment was large enough to counter most of those gains.”

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau on Thursday argued that economic conditions in Germany warrant fiscal

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau on Thursday argued that economic conditions in Germany warrant fiscal spending. Regarding the policy outlook, "It's reasonable to expect that short term rates are close to bottoming out," Villeroy said. "Raising rates would be a mistake, low short-term rates must stay in place." On the other hand, "the German economy is not really in the danger zone," noted German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz. Earlier in the day, the data published by Germany's Destatis revealed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 1% on a yearly basis in third-quarter (preliminary) to beat the market expectation for 0%. In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair is trading at fresh monthly lows near 1.0990, losing 0.12% on a daily basis.

The GBP/JPY cross edged lower through the mid-European session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its multi-week trading range,

Reviving safe-haven demand benefitted the JPY and exerted some pressure.Softer UK retail sales added to the UK political uncertainty-led selling bias.The GBP/JPY cross edged lower through the mid-European session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its multi-week trading range, around mid-139.00s.
 
The cross failed to capitalize on its attempted positive move witnessed on the first day of the current trading week and remained depressed for the third consecutive session on Thursday. Reviving safe-haven demand, amid growing uncertainty over a preliminary US-China trade deal, benefitted the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and continued exerting some downward pressure on the cross. Focus remains on UK political development The British Pound was further weighed down by Thursday's UK monthly retail sales figures, which unexpectedly dropped 0.1% in October and fueled concerns about slowing economic growth. Against the backdrop of persistent UK political uncertainty, the softer UK macro data further weighed on the Sterling and contributed to the pair's intraday slide further below the key 140.00 psychological mark.
 
From a technical perspective, some follow-through selling will mark a bearish breakdown and set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move. Hence, it will be interesting to see if bears are able to capitalize on the ongoing pullback or the cross continues to attract some dip-buying interest at lower levels. Technical levels to watch  

The Indian Rupee keeps the positive performance unchanged so far on Thursday, taking USD/INR to the mid-71.00s where it met some decent support for th

USD/INR keeps the offered tone below the 72.00 mark.Focus of attention in the EM FX space remains on trade.WPI Inflation came in below forecasts in October.The Indian Rupee keeps the positive performance unchanged so far on Thursday, taking USD/INR to the mid-71.00s where it met some decent support for the time being. Indian Rupee attention on trade, Powell The pair’s rally since the beginning of the month remains well in place despite the ongoing correction, managing to gain nearly 2.5% since monthly lows in the 70.60 area. In fact, trade concerns have been weighing on INR as well as on the rest of the EM universe as of late amidst a strong recovery in the greenback on the back of positive results from the US docket and the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Federal Reserve. In the domestic calendar, Wednesday’s inflation figures tracked by the CPI in India showed consumer prices rose 4.62% on a year to October, bettering estimates and up from September’s 3.99% advance. Earlier in the day, Whole Price Index Inflation rose 0.16% over the last twelve months, coming in short of forecasts. There is no news from the RBI following the October interest rate cut, all amidst the broad accommodative stance from the central bank and with the domestic exports sector under pressure against the backdrop of trade tensions and global slowdown. USD/INR levels to watch As of writing the pair is losing 0.40% at 71.76 and faces the next support at 71.56 (low Nov.14) seconded by 71.23 (55-day SMA) and then 70.66 (monthly low Nov.5). On the flip side, a breakout of 72.08 (monthly high Nov.12) would expose 72.26 (2019 high Sep.3) and finally 74.52 (2018 high).

Commenting on today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from Germany, which showed that the economy expanded by 1% on a yearly basis in the third quar

Commenting on today's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from Germany, which showed that the economy expanded by 1% on a yearly basis in the third quarter, Germany’s Economy Minister Altmaier argued that the first positive signal of GDP growth does not give them 'all-clear.' "The dark clouds on the horizon of the global economy have lifted a bit, also true of Brexit," Altmaier added.  The shared currency ignored these remarks and the EUR/USD pair was last seen trading at 1.0992, losing 0.13% on a daily basis.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest report announced that it left its forecast for 2020 global oil demand growt

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in its latest report announced that it left its forecast for 2020 global oil demand growth unchanged at 1%, or 1.08 million barrels per day (bpd).  Crude oil is clinging to modest daily gains after OPEC's publication with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate adding 0.6% on the day at $57.70. Below are some additional key takeaways, per Reuters. "2020 surplus of 70,000 bpd if OPEC keeps production at November's rate, down from 340,000 bpd surplus in September report." "Non-opec supply to rise by 2.17M bpd in 2020, down 40,000 bpd from the previous forecast." "October oil output rose by 943,000 bpd m/m to 29.65M bpd as Saudi supply recovered from September attacks." "Saudi Arabia raised October crude output to 10.303M bpd, up 1.174M bpd m/m." "Expects 2020 demand for its crude averaging 29.58M bpd,  steady vs. previous forecast of 29.57M bpd." "OECD oil inventories fell  in September and stood 28 million barrels above latest 5-year average."

FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested USD/CNH could now attempt some consolidation after charting a short-term bottom. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We hi

FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested USD/CNH could now attempt some consolidation after charting a short-term bottom. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday USD “could move above 7.0250 but the next resistance at 7.0330 is unlikely to come into the picture”. However, USD briefly popped to a high of 7.0375 before dropping back quickly. The combination of overbought conditions and waning momentum suggests that a temporary top could be in place. For today, USD is likely to trade with a downward bias but any weakness is viewed as part of 7.0100/7.0310 range (a sustained decline below 7.0100 is not expected)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “After USD plummeted to 6.9530 last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday (08 Nov, spot at 6.9800) that “while the outlook for USD remains weak, the next major support at 6.9200 may not come into the picture so soon”. USD subsequently rebounded and moved above the 7.0220 ‘strong resistance’ yesterday. The price action suggests that 6.9530 is a short-term bottom. The current movement is viewed as part of a broader consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways between 6.9750 and 7.0600 for a period”.

GBP has moved lower in the past few hours or so on some general USD strength but this latest news will not help push sterling higher. Since Nigel Fara

A new IPSOS MORI poll says 25% expect a conservative majority and 33% expect a hung parliament with a Conservative majority.GBP/USD is trading 0.10% lower on the session at 1.2838.GBP has moved lower in the past few hours or so on some general USD strength but this latest news will not help push sterling higher. Since Nigel Farage stated his Brexit Party will not contest conservative seats won in the last election, GBP/USD has traded higher. This new poll suggests a hung parliament is the most likely outcome but it has not been said who was surveyed and the size of the sample space. The current 1-hour consolidation low stands at 1.2813 and a break lower would send the pair looking for lower support zones. On the higher timeframes cable has formed a consolidation flag pattern as it seems we wait for more news on the election and Brexit.

EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 119.43 Today Daily Change 46 Today Daily Change % -0.26 Today daily open 119.74 Trends Daily SMA20 120.68 Daily SMA

EUR/JPY extends the leg lower and it has reached the key 100-day SMA in the mid-119.00s.Further south emerges another support of relevance in the 119.20 region, where sits the 55-day SMA.Occasional bullish attempts, however, are expected to meet initial resistance in the 120.00 neighbourhood.EUR/JPY daily chart  

Prices of the precious metal keep the positive performance in the second half of the week, although the $1,470 region continues to cap the upside for

The yellow metal remains firm around $1,470.The weak note in the dollar pushes prices higher.Fed’s Powell will testify again later today.Prices of the precious metal keep the positive performance in the second half of the week, although the $1,470 region continues to cap the upside for the time being. XAU/USD remains firm ahead of data, Powell The positive streak in Gold prices is prolonging for another session on Thursday, always sustained by the resurgence of trade concerns and absence of real progress surrounding the US-China ‘Phase One’ deal. Increased uncertainty in the trade scenario has helped the safe havens to regain ground in the last couple of sessions.Bullion has managed to test fresh tops around $1,470 earlier in the session and in response to a knee-jerk in the buck, although it has surrendered part of those gains afterwards. The up move in the safe haven metal remains under scrutiny, however, as Chief Powell reinforced the Fed’s ‘pause’ mode on Wednesday and US inflation surpassed forecasts during last month, all morphing into extra support for the dollar. Moving forward, US Producer Prices and the weekly Initial Claims are due ahead of the second testimony by Chief Powell, while a slew of Fed-speakers should also keep the buck in centre stage Gold key levels As of writing Gold is gaining 0.35% at $1,468.14 and a breakout of $1,478.32 (100-day SMA) would expose $1,496.85 (55-day SMA) and then $1,519.70 (monthly high Oct.3). On the downside, the next support emerges at $1,456.08 (monthly low Nov.8) seconded by $1,449.39 (38.2% Fibo of the May-September rally) and finally $1,416.12 (50% Fibo of the May-September rally).

The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on its attempted intraday positive move and has now retreated to the lower end of its daily trading range, back

The intraday uptick runs out of the steam on softer UK retail sales data.UK political uncertainty further collaborated towards capping the upside.A subdued USD demand also did little to provide any meaningful impetus.The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on its attempted intraday positive move and has now retreated to the lower end of its daily trading range, back below mid-1.2800s.
 
The pair continued showing some resilience below 100-hour SMA and gained some traction on Thursday, albeit the uptick quickly ran out of the steam in reaction to an unexpected drop in the UK monthly retail sales in October. Traders remained on the sidelines In fact, sales fall 0.1% during the reported month and raised some fears that consumer spending might not continue to support economic growth in the last quarter of the year, which might lead to policy easing by the BoE.
 
Against the backdrop of UK political uncertainty, the softer UK economic data exerted some pressure and turned out to be one of the key factors behind the pair's intraday pullback of around 20-25 pips from daily tops.
 
In the latest UK political development, the Brexit party leader Nigel Farage said this Thursday that they will fight the Labour party in all of its seats and further raised odds of a majority for the ruling Conservative party.
 
Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar demand, possibly on the back of a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields, did little to influence, with the GBP price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum.
 
Despite the two-way moves, the pair remained confined well within a narrow trading band held over the past three trading sessions, warranting some caution before positioning aggressively for the next leg of a directional move.
 
Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's second day of testimony and scheduled speeches by influential FOMC member in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Overnight AUD/USD underperformed after the October employment change data recorded at -19.0K vs the expected 15.0K and previous of 14.7K. The weakness

AUD/USD is trading 0.77% lower on the session breaking 0.68 the handle.Poor data from China and Australia overnight is affecting the pair.Fundamental Backdrop Overnight AUD/USD underperformed after the October employment change data recorded at -19.0K vs the expected 15.0K and previous of 14.7K. The weakness was pretty broadly based, as full-time employment dropped 10.3k, while part-time employment fell 8.7k. So it seems the US-China trade war is having an impact on the Aussies and the news didn't get much better after the Chinese data disappointed too. Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 4.7% vs expected 5.4%, previous 5.8%. It seems the bearishness from overnight has spilt into the EU session and selling has exacerbated. Today the 0.68 handle has been taken to the downside making this the lowest level traded since October 17th 2019. The RBA are still on wait and see mode at the moment like many other of the worlds central banks. This data could potentially impact their decision making as it was pretty weak.  AUD/USD Daily Chart  

When asked if he trusts British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, "not really," Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said on Thursday but added that odds were

When asked if he trusts British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, "not really," Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said on Thursday but added that odds were that there would be a small Conservative majority at the end of the election. "Conservatives are trying to use all sorts of tactics to stop our people from standing in this election," Farage added. These remarks had little to no impact on the British pound's market valuation. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was trading a few pips below the 1.2850 mark, staying flat on the day.

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage on Thursday said they will fight the Labout party in all of its seats. The British pound's reaction has been so far l

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage on Thursday said they will fight the Labout party in all of its seats. The British pound's reaction has been so far limited to Farage's comments. At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 1.2845. Below are some additional comments, per Reuters. "Labour is more about Hoxton than it is about Hull - it has been taken over by London intellectuals." "Labour voters will stay at home in this election which gives Brexit Party an opportunity." "Brexit Party candidates coming under pressure not to put themselves up for election."

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is now seen within a consolidative fashion. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday “the un

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is now seen within a consolidative fashion. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday “the underlying tone has weakened and the risk is on the downside”. We added, “USD could move and test the strong 108.65 support”. USD subsequently dropped to 108.64 before recovering slightly. Downward momentum has picked up, albeit not by much. From here, the bias for USD is still to the downside. That said, any weakness is expected to encounter strong support at 108.45. Resistance is at 109.00 but stronger level is at 109.15”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We cautioned on the deteriorating upward momentum yesterday (13 Nov, spot at 109.00) and held the view that “risk of a short-term top has increased”. USD subsequently dipped one pip below our ‘strong support’ level 108.65 (low of 108.64). The price action suggests last week’s 109.48 high is a short-term top (we previously held the view that a break of the solid 109.75 resistance is ‘not ruled out’). The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways between 108.45 and 109.30 for a period”.

The NZD/USD pair registered a daily gain of around 80 pips on Wednesday boosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) surprise decision to keep

RBNZ's surprise decision to leave the policy rate unchanged boosted kiwi.Resurfacing US-China trade worries make it difficult for the pair to extend rally.US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in tight range below 98.50.The NZD/USD pair registered a daily gain of around 80 pips on Wednesday boosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) surprise decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1% but struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6392, down 0.28% on a daily basis. Commenting on the RBNZ's policy decision, “Rates were kept on hold because economic developments since the August statement did not warrant a change,” TD Securities analysts said. “The Bank indicated it is prepared to ease monetary policy further noting near term risks were tilted to the downside.” Focus shifts to US-China trade headlines after RBNZ Resurfacing worries over a protracted trade dispute between the United States (US) and China amid reports suggesting that China was refusing to commit to the amount of agricultural imports agreed weighed on antipodeans. Additionally, the data from China revealed business investment fell to 5.2% on a yearly basis while industrial output disappointed with an expansion of 4.7% to further hurt the kiwi. In the second half of the day, markets will be paying close attention to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks in the second day of his testimony before the US Congress. Ahead of this event, the US Dollar Index posts modest daily gains near 98.40. In the early trading hours of the Asian session, the Business NZ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh catalysts. Technical levels to consider  

European Central Bank's (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane on Thursday said the euro's exchange rate was not a policy target for the ECB, as reported b

European Central Bank's (ECB) chief economist Philip Lane on Thursday said the euro's exchange rate was not a policy target for the ECB, as reported by Reuters. "It's plausible that the impact of rate cuts on the euro exchange rate has intensified over time," Lane further acknowledged. The shared currency seems to be losing strength against its major rivals in the last hour. At the time of press, the EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.0995, losing 0.12% on a daily basis.

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Fed Chair Powell to largely reiterate his Wednesday's remarks in its second day at Congress. Key Quotes “T

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Fed Chair Powell to largely reiterate his Wednesday's remarks in its second day at Congress. Key Quotes “The Fed Chair is likely to repeat that the economy is in a "good place", although risks remain, and that monetary policy is appropriate but not on a preset course.” “Separately, Vice-Chair Clarida could offer additional details about the ongoing Fed Framework Review during his discussion at the Cato Conference; while NY Fed President Williams may provide his views on the economy and monetary policy at his opening remarks at the Asian Economic Policy Conference.”

EUR/USD has been on the decline over the last couple of sessions but has been under pressure since 4th November. The 61.8% Fibonacci level holds just

EUR/USD is trading 0.09% lower today just under the 1.10 psychological support.Measuring the last impulse wave higher the price has now found some support at the 61.8 Fibonacci zone.EUR/USD Daily Chart EUR/USD has been on the decline over the last couple of sessions but has been under pressure since 4th November. The 61.8% Fibonacci level holds just under the 1.10 psychological support at 1.0995. It is not shown on the chart but if this is the start of a wave 1 and 2 Elliot wave move higher then the next Fibonacci level 76.4% is at 1.0950. If both the support levels get taken out then the main support low will become the low on the chart of 1.0879. From a candlestick perspective, yesterday's candle was a Doji. This shows significant indecision and the high stands at 1.1020. If this gets taken out we could have a bullish scenario.  Additional Levels  

In view of Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, near term USD bounce can extend further as last minute jitters set in about phase one

In view of Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, near term USD bounce can extend further as last minute jitters set in about phase one trade deal prospects and deepening political unrest in a couple Asian/Latin hotspots. Key Quotes “DXY index has retraced about half its steep October losses and can extend to 99.0 near term.” “Encouraging upticks in Eurozone IP, PMIs and ZEW suggest the region is on the verge of a turnaround. But, sustained downside for the USD likely needs to see more compelling EZ recovery greenshoots, beyond stabilisation at depressed levels.” “In any case, forward-looking US data is perking up at the same time, meaning the growth gap in the US’ favour isn’t really closing.” “Consensus US growth expectations have been a handy 1-2ppts above Eurozone for sometime and no real closing of that gap is expected in 2020. So the USD is in good shape. The turn of the year will lift the lid on 2020 US political uncertainty though and could prompt a USD sentiment shift, as markets ponder a Jan Senate impeachment trial and prospects for a progressive Democrat president.”

China's customs on Thursday announced that they will be removing restrictions on the import of poultry meat from the United States, effective immediat

China's customs on Thursday announced that they will be removing restrictions on the import of poultry meat from the United States, effective immediately, as reported by Reuters. However, the fact that this decision had already been announced by Beijing following the latest face-to-face trade talks with US officials allowed markets to ignore it. As of writing, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was down around 2% on a daily basis and major European equity indexes were posting modest daily losses.

The Indian currency is now picking up some traction and drags USD/INR to fresh lows in sub-72.00 levels. US Dollar / Indian Rupee looks to US data, Po

USD/INR retreats from highs above the 72.00 handle.Recent CPI figures surprised to the upside.WPI rose less than expected in October.The Indian currency is now picking up some traction and drags USD/INR to fresh lows in sub-72.00 levels. US Dollar / Indian Rupee looks to US data, Powell After moving to fresh 2-month tops in the area just above 72.00 the figure on Wednesday, the pair is now facing some downside pressure on the back of the offered bias in the greenback. In the docket, Wednesday’s inflation figures tracked by the CPI in India showed consumer prices rose 4.62% on a year to October, surpassing estimates and up from September’s 3.99% gain. Earlier on Thursday, Whole Price Index rose 0.16% on a yearly basis, coming in short of forecasts. In the meantime, spot keeps the November rally well and sound so far, advancing from the 70.60 region to Wednesday’s tops above 72.00. There is no news from the RBI following the October interest rate cut, all amidst the broad accommodative stance from the central bank and with the domestic exports sector under pressure against the backdrop of trade tensions and global slowdown. USD/INR levels to watch As of writing the pair is losing 0.23% at 71.92 and faces the next support at 71.60 (high Oct.16) seconded by 71.23 (55-day SMA) and then 70.66 (monthly low Nov.5). On the flip side, a breakout of 72.08 (monthly high Nov.12) would expose 72.26 (2019 high Sep.3) and finally 74.52 (2018 high).

The USD/JPY pair extended its recent pullback from multi-month tops and remained under some selling pressure for the fifth consecutive session on Wedn

Remains under some selling pressure for the fifth straight session.Weakness below 23.6% Fibo. might trigger some additional selling.The USD/JPY pair extended its recent pullback from multi-month tops and remained under some selling pressure for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday.
 
The downward trajectory has now dragged the pair to 1-1/2 week lows, with bears challenging a support marked by over two-month-old ascending trend-line.
 
Given that the pair had failed to find acceptance above 200-day SMA, sustained weakness below the mentioned support might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders.
 
This is closely followed by support near the 108.35 region – representing 23.6% Fibonacci level of the 104.45-109.49 recent strong recovery from multi-year lows.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have been losing positive momentum, which might further add credence to a possible near-term bearish set-up.
 
Below the mentioned support levels, the pair is likely to accelerate the slide towards the 108.00 handle en-route 38.2% Fibo. level support near mid-107.00s.
 
On the upside, any attempted positive move might now confront some fresh supply near the 109.00 handle (200-DMA), which if cleared might negate the bearish bias. USD/JPY daily chart  

Iris Pang, economist at ING, points out that China’s fixed asset investment grew only 5.2% year-on-year, year-to-date in October, marking its slowest

Iris Pang, economist at ING, points out that China’s fixed asset investment grew only 5.2% year-on-year, year-to-date in October, marking its slowest growth rate since the data started in 1998. Key Quotes “The weakness here shows that Chinese business investment has been highly affected by the trade war.” “Investment in the textile industry (-8.5%YoY YTD) and electric equipment (-7.5%YoY YTD) actually contracted. Investment in these areas is only likely to recover when there is substantial progress in the trade negotiations.” “For most of 2019, investment has been supported by transportation infrastructure investment via the issuance of local government special bonds. As the end of the year approaches, investment in these projects has slowed, shrinking 5.9%YoY YTD though we expect a pick up from 1Q20.”

"We are going to hit the lower bound of interest rates much more frequently," Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), said

"We are going to hit the lower bound of interest rates much more frequently," Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), said on Thursday. "The risk of Japanification of the European economy is something we have to confront," De Guindos said but added that it would be a simplification of issues. "My personal opinion is we are living in a world where the natural interest rate is declining." The EUR/USD pair largely ignored these comments and was last seen posting small daily losses near the 1.1000 handle.

After hearing earlier in the session that Germany has avoided a recession the has been some more good news for the Eurozone. The Euro area has been su

EU GDP (YoY) (Q3) 1.2% vs expected 1.1% previous 1.1%.EU  GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% vs expected 0.2% previous 0.2%.After hearing earlier in the session that Germany has avoided a recession the has been some more good news for the Eurozone. The Euro area has been suffering from a sharp slowdown for some time prompting the ECB to kickstart asset purchasing once again. Today's readings show that the quarterly reading matched expectation to grow 0.2% in Q3 but the yearly figure showed a small rise of 0.1%. The number of employed persons also increased by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2019, compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2019, employment levels had grown by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28, according to Eurostat.

The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that monetary policy cannot address all the problems in the global e

The ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that monetary policy cannot address all the problems in the global economy. Additional quotes: ECB still has ammunition but side effects of the policy are becoming more evident. Data shows the European economy is not going to fall into a recession. Growth will be below potential. Should not be complacent about an inflationary shock in the region.

European Monetary Union Employment Change (QoQ) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in 3Q

European Monetary Union Employment Change (YoY) meets forecasts (1%) in 3Q

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) came in at 1.2%, above forecasts (1.1%) in 3Q

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.2%) in 3Q

According to Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, AUD is clearly weakest in the G10 over the week after today’s employment data and has raised caution ove

According to Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, AUD is clearly weakest in the G10 over the week after today’s employment data and has raised caution over the fall, with pricing for the RBA to cut rates in Feb 2020 jumping from about 50% to 70%. Key Quotes “Given that the RBA last week forecast the unemployment rate to sit around 5.2% through end2020, the recent gyrations in the official data from 5.2% to 5.3% are unlikely to change the dial greatly.” “However, Westpac was already predicting a Feb rate cut so we can’t complain about market pricing moving closer to our view. The -19k reading on total employment followed another soft wages number for Q3.” “China’s economy for Q4 showed further weakness in industrial production, just 4.7%yr. Before this year, IP growth hadn’t been below 5% since a seasonal distortion in 2002.” “This should see A$ remain an underperformer near term, including against this week’s star, the kiwi.”

Ahead of the UK retail sales data, there was some GBP strength entering the market. GBP/USD spiked higher to 1.2867 and EUR/GBP hit a low of 0.85493.

Ahead of the UK retail sales data EUR/GBP reached a low of 0.85509.UK retail sales missed expectations of 0.2% to come in at -0.1% for October.Fundamental Backdrop Ahead of the UK retail sales data, there was some GBP strength entering the market. GBP/USD spiked higher to 1.2867 and EUR/GBP hit a low of 0.85493. Despite the miss on the retail sales number, the main driver of GBP price action is still politics and Brexit of course. Today the talk amongst UK press focuses on which parties are fielding candidates against each other in the Remain and Brexiteer camp. This has been a hot topic since the Brexit Party's Nigel Farage stated he would not field candidates against Conservatives who won seats in the last election. Daily Chart The low on 8th May was 0.85608 and today the price hit 0.85509. The daily chart below shows the collapse of EUR/GBP over the last two months. The next major support holds at 0.84912 and below that 0.84722 on the daily timeframe.

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) suggest that hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets and while it is u

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) suggest that hopes of a US-China ‘Phase One’ trade agreement have lifted financial markets and while it is unclear if existing tariffs will be rolled back, should a deal be agreed it would suggest a lower risk of an extreme tail event and may lift business confidence. Key Quotes “Less clear is whether the drag on business investment from the unclear nature of future trading relationships will change. Our forecasts are based on announced trade policy but the hopes of a deal suggests more upside risk than have been evident for a while.” “At the same time expectations of further major Advanced Economy (AE) monetary policy easing have been dialled back, although the recent easing that has been put in place is likely to remain for an extend period.” “Major AE growth appeared broadly steady in Q3 but we expect further slowing going forward. The most recent business surveys are consistent with subdued growth in the Eurozone, further slowing in the US and a turn for the worse in Japan (in part due to the increase in its Value Added Tax). We don’t expect major AE growth (on a yoy basis) to stabilise until mid-2020.” “Our forecasts for global economic growth are unchanged this month, however there has been some shift in the underlying forecasts for key regions. Our upward revision to US economic growth for 2019 and 2020 was offset by our downward revision to Chinese and East Asian growth. This means that we expect the global economy to expand by a sub-trend 3.1% and 3.2% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, before returning to the long term trend of 3.5% in 2021. Recoveries in Indian and Latin American growth are the key contributors to the 2021 upturn, but there is considerable uncertainty around the growth prospects for these economies.”

The US benchmark index for equities closed for the fifth consecutive day with gains on Wednesday, including a move beyond the 27,800 pts to record an

The Dow broke above the 27,800 level on Wednesday, record highs.Trade concerns remain the exclusive driver of the global mood.Fed’s Powell will testify again to the Congress later in the session.The US benchmark index for equities closed for the fifth consecutive day with gains on Wednesday, including a move beyond the 27,800 pts to record an all-time high. Dow Jones futures point to a soft open The resurgence of trade concerns is weighing on investors’ sentiment on Thursday and echoes on the Dow futures, which are pointing to a negative open around the 27,700 pts at the time of writing. It is worth recalling that a fresh wave of trade jitters and scepticism on the progress of the US-China negotiations have re-emerged among market participants after President Trump failed to meet expectations on the issue at his speech on Tuesday. Moving forward, the Dow is seen trading on a cautious note ahead of another testimony by Fed’s J.Powell, this time to the House Budget Committee and the publication of October’s Producer Prices, Initial Claims and the DoE report on crude supplies. In the same direction, S&P500 futures are also looking south and point to the 3,090 region, also following recent record highs beyond the 3,100 level.

The headline UK retail sales came in to show an unexpected fall of 0.1% in October as compared to 0.2% growth expected and a flat reading recorded in

The UK retail sales declined by 0.1% MoM in October.The core retail sales fell 0.3% MoM during the reported month.The headline UK retail sales came in to show an unexpected fall of 0.1% in October as compared to 0.2% growth expected and a flat reading recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core retail sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, also fell by 0.3% MoM as against consensus estimates pointing to a 0.2% growth and previous.
 
On an annualized basis, the UK retail sales rose 3.1% in October versus 3.7% growth expected while the core retail sales also advanced 2.7% in the reported month versus +2.9% previous and +3.4% expectations. GBP/USD eases from tops The dismal data exerted some downward pressure on the British pound, with the GBP/USD pair trimming a part of its early gains and quickly retreating around 15 pips from daily tops to currently trading around mid-1.2800s.

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted further downside in Cable looks unlikely, while they keep favouring the continuation of the rangebound theme in the

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted further downside in Cable looks unlikely, while they keep favouring the continuation of the rangebound theme in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP traded sideways as expected, even though the registered range of 40 pips (between 1.2822 and 1.2862) was narrower than our expected range of 1.2820/1.2880. Indicators are mostly ‘flat’ and GBP could continue to consolidate and trade sideways. Expected range for today, 1.2825/1.2875”. Next 1-3 weeks: “GBP traded in a relatively quiet manner as it traded within a 1.2816/1.2873 range. The price action is in line with our view from yesterday (12 Nov, spot at 1.2855) wherein GBP “is deemed to have move back into a sideway-trading phase”. In other words, we continue to expect GBP to trade sideways between 1.2770 and 1.2930 for a period”.

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) dipped from previous 0.5% to 0.3% in 3Q

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 1.9% in 3Q

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 3.1%, below expectations (3.7%) in October

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below forecasts (3.4%) in October: Actual (2.7%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in October: Actual (-0.3%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0.2%) in October

The DXY hourly chart looks to have hit a ceiling at the 98.45 area. It seems now that that the dollar may be looking to take a breather after a couple

The Dollar Index trades flat this morning after failing to break the highs.The 4-hour ascending chart pattern has now broken lower.1-Hour Chart The DXY hourly chart looks to have hit a ceiling at the 98.45 area.  It seems now that that the dollar may be looking to take a breather after a couple of days of strength. The chart below is showing on the intraday timeframes the dollar is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows.  On the downside, if the consolidation low of 98.27 breaks we could head to support levels lower down. The next support is at 98.10 but watch out for 98.27 first. 4-Hour Chart You can see on the four-hour chart below that the ascending wedge formation has broken lower. It didn't break down with much conviction it seems to be more of a consequence of time. Overall the chart is a showing the dollar index is in a retracement phase.  The next prominant support is at 97.93. Additional Levels  

Following the release of the Q3 GDP report, the German economy ministry was out with some comments in the last hour and said that business climate ind

Following the release of the Q3 GDP report, the German economy ministry was out with some comments in the last hour and said that business climate indicators in the third quarter send the first ray of hope. Additional quotes: Economic growth remains weak in Q3 and indicators do not signal a recovery yet.
German exports were up 1.1% in Q3 but companies do not expect a noticeable recovery in the coming months.  Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair extended its sideways price action and remained confined in a narrow trading band near the key 1.10 psychological mark or one-month lows.

Analysts at Standard Chartered points out that China’s October growth data underwhelmed market expectations with industrial production (IP) growth slo

Analysts at Standard Chartered points out that China’s October growth data underwhelmed market expectations with industrial production (IP) growth slowing to 4.7% y/y from 5.8% in September on seasonal effects. Key Quotes “Services-sector growth held up better at 6.6% y/y, similar to previous months. Retail sales growth dropped to 4.9% y/y in October in real terms from 5.7% y/y in Q3-2019, perhaps partly due to the scheduled annual sales promotion on 11 November. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth remained weak, with the slowdown in real estate and infrastructure investment more than offsetting the tepid recovery in manufacturing investment.” “Overall, China’s economy maintained a slower cruising speed. The ongoing economic downturn has been more broad-based than previous ones, but less intense in terms of the impact on the labour market.” “We expect housing construction and net exports to become headwinds in 2020, and as such, see China’s government sticking with a pro-growth policy stance for the foreseeable future. We expect the overall budget deficit (both general and funds accounts) to be maintained at 6.5% of GDP in 2020. This implies that in order to offset the fading effect of tax cuts in 2019, monetary policy may have to shoulder greater responsibility for stabilising growth.” “We expect the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by another 50bps before year-end (or inject an equivalent amount of liquidity via targeted measures). The PBoC lowered the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 5bps to 3.25% on 5 November, less aggressive than our forecast of 10bps cut. We expect the PBoC to cut the MLF rate by another 10bps in Q1-2020.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY is starting to balk at tough resistance which extends from current levels up to the 2015-20

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY is starting to balk at tough resistance which extends from current levels up to the 2015-2019 downtrend at 110.79 (the 55 and 200 week moving averages are found ahead of here at 109.57/109.98) and is formidable resistance which should hold the topside. Key Quotes “Near term however the market remains capable of upside probes while above the uptrend at 108.50 and only on a close below here does our attention divert to underlying support.” “Failure at the recent low of 107.89 will further alleviate upside pressure and trigger losses to the 106.48 October low. Failure at 106.48 will target 106.00, then 105.32/78.6% retracement which is the last defence for the 104.46 August low.”

The USD/CAD pair held steady above mid-1.3200s, or near five-week tops, with bulls still awaiting a move beyond the very important 200-day SMA. The pa

The pair gained some traction despite a combination of negative factors.Bulls seemed unaffected by a subdued USD demand, positive Oil prices.Thursday’s speeches by influential FOMC members eyed for a fresh impetus.The USD/CAD pair held steady above mid-1.3200s, or near five-week tops, with bulls still awaiting a move beyond the very important 200-day SMA.
 
The pair ticked higher for the fifth consecutive session – also marking its eighth day of a positive move in the previous nine – and seemed rather unaffected by bullish oil prices, which tend to underpin demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie. Bulls await a sustained move beyond 200-DMA Even a subdued US Dollar price action, weighed down by a sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, did little to dampen the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the major, albeit kept a lid on any runaway rally, at least for the time being.
 
Oil prices gained some follow-through traction on Thursday and remained well supported by the overnight report, which showed a surprise drop in the US crude inventories, and comments from an OPEC official about lower US shale production growth in 2020.
 
The prevalent risk-off mood, amid growing uncertainty over a preliminary US-China trade deal, seemed to be the only factor that benefitted the greenback's perceived safe-haven status against its Canadian counterpart and driving the pair higher. It, however, remains to be seen if bulls are able to capitalize on the momentum and make it through a significant technical barrier as market participants now look forward to scheduled speeches by influential FOMC member for some meaningful trading impetus. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD remains under pressure, although a breach below the 1.0970 region seems to be losing some traction, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group.

EUR/USD remains under pressure, although a breach below the 1.0970 region seems to be losing some traction, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for EUR yesterday was “it could try to move below 1.1000 again but the next support at 1.0970 is not expected to come into the picture”. EUR subsequently dipped to a low of 1.0993 before recovering to end the day marginally lower at 1.1006 (-0.01%). The quiet price action offers no fresh clues and EUR could remain sidelined at these lower levels. Expected range for today, 1.0995/1.1035”. Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR finally moved below the 1.1000 level that we first indicated one week ago (06 Nov, spot 1.1075) as it dipped to 1.0993 yesterday. Despite making fresh low, downward momentum remains lackluster. As highlighted yesterday (13 Nov, spot at 1.1010), while EUR is still under pressure, the prospect for a sustained decline below the next support at 1.0970 is not high. However, only a move above 1.1065 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level for now) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.

The once troy of the yellow metal is prolonging the positive streak on Thursday and approaches the $1,470 region. Gold up on weak-USD, looks to trade,

Gold edges higher near the $1,470 region.The weak note in the dollar pushes prices higher.Fed’s Powell will testify again later today.The once troy of the yellow metal is prolonging the positive streak on Thursday and approaches the $1,470 region. Gold up on weak-USD, looks to trade, Powell Gold is up for the third session in a row in the second half of the week, always in response to the resurgence of trade concerns around the lack of progress on the ‘Phase One’ deal. The resurgence of the trade effervescence woke up after President Trump failed to unveil extra details on the trade scenario earlier in the week. Also collaborating with the upside, the greenback is shedding some ground after failing once again to push the US Dollar Index further north of recent tops in the 98.40/50 band, all despite Wednesday’s positive CPI figures and the upbeat assessment of the US economy by Fed’s Powell at his testimony. Later in the day, US Producer Prices and the weekly report on the US labour market should keep the attention on the buck ahead of the second testimony by Chief Powell, this time to the House Budget Committee. Still on the metals complex, Silver is tracking the performance of Bullion and is up for the second day in a row, managing to surpass the ley barrier at $17.00 the figure. The weak note in the greenback continues to support the USD-denominated universe while recent oversold levels of the white metal have been also adding to the rebound. Gold key levels As of writing Gold is gaining 0.45% at $1,469.89 and a breakout of $1,478.32 (100-day SMA) would expose $1,496.85 (55-day SMA) and then $1,519.70 (monthly high Oct.3). On the downside, the next support emerges at $1,456.08 (monthly low Nov.8) seconded by $1,449.39 (38.2% Fibo of the May-September rally) and finally $1,416.12 (50% Fibo of the May-September rally).

The USD/CHF pair came under some fresh selling pressure during the early European session on Thursday and tumbled to 1-1/2 week lows, around the 0.987

US-China trade uncertainty continued benefitting the CHF’s safe-haven status.Sliding US bond yields undermined the USD and added to the intraday selling bias.Thursday’s scheduled speeches by FOMC member eyed for some trading impetus.The USD/CHF pair came under some fresh selling pressure during the early European session on Thursday and tumbled to 1-1/2 week lows, around the 0.9875 region in the last hour.
 
Having failed to find acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA at the start of the current trading week, the witnessed a dramatic turnaround and continued losing ground for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday. Weighed down by reviving safe-haven demand Doubts over a preliminary US-China trade deal continued weighing on the global risk sentiment and turned out to be one of the key factors boosting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies – including the Swiss Franc.
 
The global flight to safety was further reinforced by some follow-through pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, which undermined the US Dollar demand and further collaborated to the pair's heavily offered tone.
 
Thursday's slide to the lowest level since November 5 could also be attributed to some follow-through technical selling below the 0.9900 round-figure mark, which should pave the way for a further intraday decline.
 
Hence, a slide back towards challenging weekly lows support, around mid-0.9800s, now looks a distinct possibility as market participants look forward to speeches by influential FOMC members for a fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) above forecasts (1.7%) in 3Q: Actual (1.9%)

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) above forecasts (0.3%) in 3Q: Actual (0.4%)

Sweden Unemployment Rate registered at 6%, below expectations (6.7%) in September

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German economy avoided a technical recession in the third quarter, growing by a surprising 0.1

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German economy avoided a technical recession in the third quarter, growing by a surprising 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. Key Quotes “At the same time, however, 2Q GDP growth was revised downwards to -0.2% quarter-on-quarter, illustrating that the economy is in a de facto stagnation. 1Q GDP growth was revised upwards to +0.5% QoQ, from +0.4% QoQ. On the year, the economy grew by 0.5% (calendar adjusted) in the third quarter.” “Further GDP details will only be released at the end of the month but according to available monthly data and the press statement from the German statistical office, both public and private consumption, as well as construction and exports, were the main drivers of growth. Investments were the main drag.” “Recession or not, the German economy has fallen into a de facto stagnation, with quarterly GDP growth averaging a meagre 0.1% QoQ since the third quarter of last year.” “Looking into 2020, it looks as if either the cyclical factors weighing on German industry will dissipate somewhat, with the entire economy rebounding, or the domestic part of the economy will also slow down. Either way, don’t forget that the structural challenges will not quickly and easily disappear, keeping a clear cap on any German rebound in 2020.” “All in all, the German economy has escaped a technical recession at the very last minute. However, despite any short-term relief, there are still very few reasons to be overly cheerful. While a growth crisis still looks unlikely, a longer period of stagnation is still in the cards.”

Philippines BSP Interest rate decision meets expectations (4)

Gold edged higher through the early European session on Thursday and is currently placed at the top end of its weekly trading range, around the $1466-

US-China trade uncertainty continued benefitting traditional safe-haven assets.Weaker US bond yields undermined the USD demand and remained supportive.Investors now look forward to Fedspeaks for some meaningful trading impetus.Gold edged higher through the early European session on Thursday and is currently placed at the top end of its weekly trading range, around the $1466-67 region.
 
A report of a deadlock in the US-China trade negotiations added to the recent pessimism and continued weighing on investors' sentiment, boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets. The global flight to safety was seen benefitting the precious metal and driving it higher for the third consecutive session on Thursday. Focus remains on trade developments Against the backdrop of the US President Donald Trump's not so optimism trade-related comments recently, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that negotiations have 'hit a snag' over farm purchases and further raised doubts over a preliminary trade deal between the world's two largest economies.
 
Meanwhile, the risk-off mood was further reinforced by a mildly weaker tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and provided any additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity, though the uptick seemed to lack any strong bullish conviction.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the commodity might have bottomed out in the near-term. Market participants now look forward scheduled speeches by influential FOMC member for some meaningful trading opportunities around the non-yielding yellow metal. Technical levels to watch  

Spain HICP (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.6%) in October

Spain HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (0.2%) in October

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (0.1%) in October

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (1%) in October

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that China’s October economic data released was weaker across the board with industrial production coming in at +4.7%

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that China’s October economic data released was weaker across the board with industrial production coming in at +4.7% YoY (vs. +5.4% YoY expected), retail sales printing at +7.2% YoY (vs. 7.8% YoY) and the YtD fixed asset ex rural investment sliding to the lowest since at least Feb 1998 (where we have data so likely much longer) to +5.2% yoy (vs. +5.4% yoy). Key Quotes “The surveyed unemployment rate came in at 5.1% (vs. 5.2% previously). Following the release, China’s National Statistics Bureau spokeswoman Liu Aihua said that China’s overall economic momentum hasn’t changed while the challenges it faces shouldn’t be underestimated before adding that China faces rising cyclical issues and structural conflicts.” “The NBS also said downside growth pressure has continually intensified and the country should carry out policies to increase economic resilience and meet whole-year economic growth targets. Our strategists think the policy responses will be limited though as China has met their employment target for the year and are still seeing de-leveraging as a policy goal.”

France Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM) rose from previous -0.3% to 0% in October

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.1%) in October

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) meets expectations (0.9%) in October

The AUD/USD pair added to its heavy intraday losses and dropped to near one-month lows in the last hour, with bears now looking to extend the slide fu

Downbeat Aussie jobs report prompts some aggressive selling on Thursday.Softer Chinese data, US-China trade uncertainty added to the bearish pressure.The prevalent risk-off mood further benefitted the USD’s safe-haven status.The AUD/USD pair added to its heavy intraday losses and dropped to near one-month lows in the last hour, with bears now looking to extend the slide further below the 0.6800 handle.
 
Following the previous session's rather subdued trading action, the pair witnessed some aggressive selling during the Asian session on Thursday following the release of downbeat Aussie jobs report and extended its recent sharp pullback from the 0.6930 region. Weighed down by a combination of factors The latest Australian employment details showed that the number of employed people during the previous month unexpectedly declined by 19K as against consensus estimates pointing to a reading of +15K and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.3%.
 
Adding to this, softer Chinese macro data – Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment – exerted some additional bearish pressure on the China-proxy Australian Dollar, all against the backdrop of doubts over preliminary US-China trade deal.
 
Meanwhile, as investors looked past the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Wednesday, the prevalent risk-off mood benefitted the US Dollar's perceived safe-haven status against its Australian counterpart and further collaborated to the pair's slide to the lowest level since October 17.
 
It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any support at lower levels or a sustained weakness below the 0.6800 mark triggers some follow-through technical selling as market participants now look forward to speeches by influential FOMC members for a fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that GBP/USD continues to attempt to recover from the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement. Key Quotes “It is curre

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that GBP/USD continues to attempt to recover from the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement. Key Quotes “It is currently struggling at the 20 day ma at 1.2674. Only above here will leave the market well placed for another attempt at the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3122 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, but we look for the market to be capped here.” “Failure at 1.2764 will see a slide to the 200 day ma at 1.2702. This guards 1.2582. Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2382 17th July low and the 1.2403 uptrend. The uptrend guards 1.2196/94.” “Below the current October low at 1.2194 lies the early and mid-August lows at 1.2091/15 and major support lies at the 1.1958 September low.”

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (-0.1%) in October

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) came in at -2.4% below forecasts (-1.9%) in October

GBP/USD has been losing some ground as the US dollar advanced, and its path to the upside may now be blocked. The Technical Confluences Indicator is s

GBP/USD has been losing some ground as the US dollar advanced, and its path to the upside may now be blocked.  The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that the pound faces fierce resistance at the area between 1.2835 to 1.2848, which is a dense cluster of levels including the Bollinger Band one-hour Middle, the Simple Moving Average 100-15m, the SMA 200-15m, the SMA 50-1h, the SMA 10-4h, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the BB 4h-Middle, the SMA 5-one-day, and more.  Higher, the next cap is close. At 1.2881, cable may meet the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and the Bollinger Band one-day Middle.  Looking down, support awaits at 1.2722, which is the confluence of the Pivot Point one-week Support 1 and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month. All in all, the path of least resistance is to the downside. This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

The selling momentum around the European currency remains unabated and is dragging EUR/USD to fresh multi-week lows in the 1.0990 region on Thursday.

EUR/USD tests lows near 1.0990 pre-data.German Q3 GDP expanded 0.1% QoQ.EMU advanced Q3 GDP figures are coming up next.The selling momentum around the European currency remains unabated and is dragging EUR/USD to fresh multi-week lows in the 1.0990 region on Thursday. EUR/USD offered despite data, now looks to EMU GDP The bearish note stays well and sound around the pair for the time being, finally breaking below the key support at 1.10 the figure on the back of solid USD-dynamics, some dovish ECB-speak and fresh trade concerns. In the meantime, further selling impetus in spot came from the upbeat tone at Powell’s testimony on Wednesday, reinforcing the case for the ongoing ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Fed and thus lending extra wings to the buck. EUR has at least managed to halt the daily downside after the German economy avoided entering into recession in the third quarter. Indeed, the GDP expanded 0.1% during the third quarter and 1.0% on a yearly basis, both prints surprising to the upside. Later in the session, another revision of Q3 GDP figures in the broader Euroland is due along with employment data for the euro area and the speech by ECB’s De Guindos. Across the pond, Producer Prices will be closely watched seconded by weekly Initial Claims and another testimony by Fed’s Powell. Furthermore, FOMC’s Quarles, Clarida, Williams, Bullard, Evans, Daly and Kaplan are expected to speak throughout the day. What to look for around EUR The selling mood in the euro has intensified and dragged spot to fresh 4-week lows in the 1.1000/1/0990 region. As usual, the firm note in the greenback and developments from the US-China trade scenario are expected to dictate the mood around the pair for the time being. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. The fact that the German economy avoided recession in Q3 is expected to bring in some temporary relief to the euro. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.06% at 1.1000 and a break below 1.0994 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1). On the upside, the next hurdle lines up at 1.1035 (55-day SMA) followed by 1.1099 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21).

Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, points out that in 1Q14, the last quarter ahead of the April 2014 consumption tax hike, Japanese GDP growth ac

Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, points out that in 1Q14, the last quarter ahead of the April 2014 consumption tax hike, Japanese GDP growth accelerated to 3.9%QoQ at an annualised rate, having registered -0.2% the previous quarter. Key Quotes “The acceleration came from front-loading of spending ahead of the tax hike, on everything from cars to toilet rolls. There is no evidence of anything like this in 2019, ahead of the October consumption tax hike.” “3Q19 GDP growth registered only 0.2%QoQ at an annualised rate. In other words, it barely grew at all on a strict quarter on quarter basis according to these preliminary, and admittedly prone-to-revision figures.” “Private consumer spending grew only 0.4%QoQ (seasonally adjusted annualised rate - saar). Business investment was a bit better at 0.9% on the same basis, but overall, domestic demand was exceptionally disappointing.”

The USD/JPY pair traded with a negative bias for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its weekly tr

US-China trade uncertainty continues to benefit the JPY’s safe-haven status.Weaker Chinese macro data helped offset softer Japanese GDP growth print.Investors look forward to Fedspeaks for some meaningful trading opportunities.The USD/JPY pair traded with a negative bias for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its weekly trading range, around the 108.70 region.
 
Against the backdrop of growing uncertainty over preliminary US-China trade deal, the prevalent cautious mood continued benefitting the Japanese Yen's (JPY) safe-haven demand and was seen as one of the key factors behind the pair's follow-through weakness on Thursday. Weighed down by reviving safe-haven demand The already weaker sentiment deteriorated further following the release of disappointing Chinese macro data, though softer Japanese Q3 GDP figures, showing a sharp deceleration in the domestic growth, helped limit any further downside, at least for the time being.
 
Meanwhile, the US Dollar found some support from a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, which gained some traction after the Fed Chair Jerome Powell told Congress on Wednesday that interest rates will be on hold unless there is a material deterioration in the economy.
 
It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find some support or continues with its recent pullback from multi-month tops as market participants now look forward to scheduled speeches by influential FOMC members for some meaningful trading impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in 3Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (0.9%) in 3Q: Actual (1%)

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.1% above expectations (-0.1%) in 3Q

German GDP arrives at +0.1% QoQ in Q3 vs. -0.1% expected. German GDP stands at +1.0% YoY in Q3 vs. +0.9% expected.

German GDP arrives at +0.1% QoQ in Q3 vs. -0.1% expected.German GDP stands at +1.0% YoY in Q3 vs. +0.9% expected.

According to Danske Bank analysts UK retail sales for October could get a boost from Brexit stockpiling. Key Quotes “In March, hoarding ahead of the o

According to Danske Bank analysts UK retail sales for October could get a boost from Brexit stockpiling. Key Quotes “In March, hoarding ahead of the original Brexit date similarly contributed to a surge in sales, though the impact will probably not be as pronounced this time.” “A range of ECB (Chief Economist Lane and Vice President De Guindos) and FOMC speakers (Clarida, Evans, Powell, Williams and Bullard - all voters) will also be scrutinized for any new monetary policy hints, as markets continue to scale back their rate cut expectations.” “In Scandinavia, markets will keep an eye on the Swedish labour market data for October and the Danish Q3 GDP indicator.”

more to come The continent's largest economy previously reported a contraction in the second quarter. The manufacturing slump, driven by slower demand

The German economy has surprised investors and expanded by 0.1% in the third quarter, defying expectations of a decline fo the same scale.  EUR/USD has recaptured the 1.10 level, after hitting a monthly low of 1.0994 beforehand. more to come The continent's largest economy previously reported a contraction in the second quarter. The manufacturing slump, driven by slower demand from China, has been weighing on Germany.

Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) up to 3.4% in September from previous -3.6%

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains on the defensive and the market is facing an uphill battle to stabilise and recover.

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD remains on the defensive and the market is facing an uphill battle to stabilise and recover. Key Quotes “It has now failed for the past 4 weeks at the 1.1180 level, and near term rallies will need to regain 1.1100 in order to trigger a retest of 1.1180. The move lower has neutralised the chart– it is unclear if the market will recover from here to the 200 day ma at 1.1180 and the top of the channel at 1.1269 (however this is slightly favoured as we suspect the slide lower was just an ‘a-b-c’ correction). Or if we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0865 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement before a sustained recovery is seen.” “Below 1.0879 we have the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814.”

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, following no growth see

UK Retail Sales Overview The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to come in at 0.2% MoM in October, following no growth seen in September. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 3.7% over the year in the reported month, up from 3.1% booked previously. Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen steadying at +0.2% MoM while rising 3.4% YoY. Deviation impact on GBP/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips. How could it affect GBP/USD? FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “Immediate support is pegged near the 1.2820-15 region, marking 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.2769-1.2898 recent move up, and is closely followed by the 1.2800 handle. Any subsequent weakness is more likely to remain limited near a short-term descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, currently near the 1.2770-65 region. Failure to defend the mentioned resistance-turned support might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide back towards testing the 1.2715-10 region. On the flip side, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2900 handle before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move towards 1.2965-70 intermediate resistance.” Key Notes GBP Futures: neutral/bearish near term GBP/USD lingers over trade/political news, UK Retail Sales in focus Tories offer Nigel Farage eleventh-hour deal – The Telegraph About the UK Retail Sales The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviewed the recent decision by the RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged at 1.00%. Key Quotes “At its last monetary polic

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviewed the recent decision by the RBNZ to keep the OCR unchanged at 1.00%. Key Quotes “At its last monetary policy meeting for the year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to keep its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.00%”. “We had held onto the minority view that the RBNZ will maintain its OCR going into this meeting, and this was largely because we believed the bigger-than-expected 50bps rate cut back in August was pre-emptive in nature, and the RBNZ would have liked to be on a “wait-and-see” approach to assess the impact of the cumulative 75bps rate cuts (year-to-date) on the economy. Furthermore, the NZD has tumbled more than 8% from its 2019-high of 0.6942”. “The next RBNZ meeting is not until 12 February 2020. Our current OCR forecast of 1.00% through 2020 remains intact. That said, we will remain watchful of both developments at home and abroad. Should employment growth weaken further, households get spooked, and/or the global economy deteriorates, it will not be surprising to see the RBNZ venturing into further interest rate cuts and the uncharted territory of unconventional monetary policy, as stated in the post-decision press conference by RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr. He did, however, flag that there is no urgency to act and to use unconventional tools for now”.

CME Group’s advanced figures for JPY futures markets noted open interest and volume rose for yet another session, now by around 1.2K contracts and nea

CME Group’s advanced figures for JPY futures markets noted open interest and volume rose for yet another session, now by around 1.2K contracts and nearly 18K contracts, respectively. USD/JPY could extend the down move to 108.00USD/JPY has resumed the downside on the back of rising trade concerns and sustained at the same time by increasing open interest and volume in the Japanese safe haven. Against this backdrop, a move to the 55-day SMA in the 108.00 neighbourhood in the near term should not be ruled out.

India WPI Inflation came in at 0.16%, above expectations (0%) in October

France ILO Unemployment above expectations (8.4%) in 3Q: Actual (8.6%)

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 14: - Fed: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has said that the economy and monetary

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 14:
- Fed: Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has said that the economy and monetary are in a good place while leaving the door open to rate cuts if the outlook deteriorates. The US Dollar has retreated only against the safe-haven yen while advancing against other currencies. EUR/USD has dipped below 1.10. Powell continues his testimony today. See Chairman Powell Lauds Economy and Eschews Politics in Congressional Testimony
- Trade: US-Sino trade talks have hit another snag on Chinese agricultural purchases, with Beijing refusing to commit to the amount of money invested. This issue adds to disagreements on tariff removals. On the other hand, President Donald Trump has insisted that negotiations are going along "rapidly."
- Chinese investment slowed down to 5.2% yearly while industrial output disappointed with 4.7%. The weak data is weighing on markets.
- AUD/USD is on the back foot after Australia's Unemployment Rate rose to 5.3% and as the land down under shed 19,000 jobs. Weak Chinese figures have also been weighing on the Aussie.
- Germany is set to report that it entered a technical recession in the third quarter, by contracting by 0.1% in the third quarter. Investors are wondering about the length of the downturn. See German GDP Preview:  Improving sentiment will limit the recession
- UK Retail Sales are set to show an increase in October after stagnating beforehand. Previous British releases this week have been disappointing, with UK inflation missing with only 1.5% yearly.
- UK elections: Prime Minister Boris Johnson's response to floods is under criticism. Four weeks to the elections, his Conservative Party remains in the lead, albeit with a narrower gap.
- US Producer Price Index figures are expected to return to growth on a monthly basis. Wednesday's Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) missed with 2.3% yearly.
- Oil prices are on the rise amid speculation about the next move by OPEC+. Crude Oil Inventories are due out today.
- Cryptocurrencies are resuming their falls, with Bitcoin dropping below $8,700. More Powell Analysis: Fed may cut rates in 2020, but the dollar moves to Trump's tune

Open interest in GBP futures rose for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by just 249 contracts according to preliminary readings from

Open interest in GBP futures rose for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by just 249 contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, volume shrunk for the second consecutive day, now by around 13.6K contracts. GBP/USD keeps the sideline mood unchangedCable keeps navigating within a consolidative fashion below the 1.2900 handle amidst choppy activity in both open interest and volume. That said, the ongoing rangebound scenario is expected to persist at least in the short-term horizon or until a strong catalyst turns up.

FX option expiries for Nov 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0900 873m 1.1000 697m 1.1040 822m 1

FX option expiries for Nov 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0900 873m  1.1000 697m 1.1040 822m 1.1050 809m 1.1100 1.5bn 1.1150 3.9bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2800 298m  1.2850 248m 1.3000 1.5bn - USD/JPY: USD amounts 107.50 428m 107.90 1.9bn 108.20 450m 108.57 520m 109.00 797m 109.25 1.3bn 109.80 635m 110.00 1.5bn  - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6775 531m 0.6850 585m 0.6880 605m 0.6900 616m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6400 266m 0.6450 206m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8640 1.1b 0.8664 554m

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors kept adding contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, this tim

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors kept adding contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, this time around 2.4K contracts. In the same direction, volume advanced for the second session in a row, now by around 22.1K contracts. EUR/USD now targets the 1.0930 regionEUR/USD is extending the leg lower amidst rising open interest and volume, which should clear the way for a potential move to the next area of contention around 1.0930. Further south emerges the 2019 low at 1.0879 (October 1st).

ANZ analysts note that nationwide, New Zealand’s house prices were up 0.9% m/m in October, to be up a strong 2.5% q/q while annual house price inflati

ANZ analysts note that nationwide, New Zealand’s house prices were up 0.9% m/m in October, to be up a strong 2.5% q/q while annual house price inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.5%. Key Quotes “Auckland price inflation continued to underperform the broader market in October, but showed more signs of sales activity. Auckland house prices were flat in the month, to be down 1.0% over the past year.” “In the rest of New Zealand (ie ex-Auckland), house price inflation rose a solid 1.8% m/m. This saw annual house price inflation pick up to 7.2% y/y from 6.5% in September.” “Prices were robust again in October, and monthly house sales also lifted. We estimate seasonally adjusted house sales rose 8% m/m in October, although annual sales growth dipped to -0.1% y/y (3mma) from 3.7% as last year’s pre-foreign buyer ban flurry dropped out of the annual calculation. Sales were solid again in Auckland, up 6% m/m, and sales rose 3% m/m elsewhere.”

Analysts at TD Securities are in line with consensus in looking for German Q3 GDP to come in at -0.1% q.q, putting Germany officially in a technical r

Analysts at TD Securities are in line with consensus in looking for German Q3 GDP to come in at -0.1% q.q, putting Germany officially in a technical recession after the -0.1% print in Q2 as well. Key Quotes “That does not mean that fiscal stimulus is on the way, as much as the ECB would like to see it, as government officials have all signaled that we would need to see something more along the lines of a crisis rather than just a mild manufacturing-led recession in order to open up their cheque books.”  

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the positive performance in the second half of the week and trades near the 98.40 r

DXY moves to the 98.40 region on Thursday.Chief Powell will testify again later today.Producer Prices, Claims, Fedspeak next on the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the positive performance in the second half of the week and trades near the 98.40 region. US Dollar Index looks to Powell, data The index is struggling for direction in the area of 4-week highs in the 98.40/50 band amidst alternating risk trends in response to the re-emergence of some jitters in the US-China trade scenario. In fact, US yields returned to sub-1.90% levels in past sessions while the demand for the safe havens has picked up pace moderately. The greenback, in the meantime, found extra support in the higher-than-expected inflation figures released on Wednesday and after Chief Powell gave an upbeat outlook on the economy at his testimony to the Congress, supporting further the view that the Fed has moved into a ‘wait-and-see’ stance. In the docket, usual weekly Claims are due seconded by Producer Prices and another testimony by Chief Powell, this time to the House Budget Committee. In addition, R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) speaks in Washington, Chicago Fed C.Evans (voter, centrist) will speak at a Fintech event in Philadelphia, San Francisco Fed M.Daly (2021 voter, centrist) and New York Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) will appear at the Economic Policy Conference, Sy. Louis Fed J.Bullard (voter, dovish) speaks in Louisville and Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (2020 voter, centrist) will speak at a Community Forum in Texas. What to look for around USD The index keeps the topside near 98.50 following positive CPI data and the firm note from the first testimony by Fed’s Powell. In the meantime, the lack of headlines from the US-China trade war has been supporting the recent inflows into the safe havens and dragged yields lower. On the broader view, the outlook on the greenback appears constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 98.41 and a break above 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 97.97 (100-day SMA) seconded by 97.54 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

The US-based Moody's Investors Service offers key insights on the global economic outlook, in its latest report on Thursday. Key Highlights: Global ec

The US-based Moody's Investors Service offers key insights on the global economic outlook, in its latest report on Thursday. Key Highlights: Global economic growth will remain sluggish. Pessimistic business sentiment and trade uncertainty to cloud 2020 outlook. Business sentiment across major economies has become downbeat. There is a growing concern that a recession is only a shock away. But emerging economies will stabilise or pick up pace in 2020 and 2021. Not expecting global economy to enter a recession in 2020 or 2021 Expects continued deceleration for the US and China next year.

With no respite from Hong Kong protests and an on-going trade tussle between the United States (US) and China, Asian shares remain under pressure.

Risk aversion continues in Asia.US-China trade woes, Hong Kong protests become the key catalysts.China’s data dump added to the market pessimism.With no respite from Hong Kong protests and an on-going trade tussle between the United States (US) and China, Asian shares remain under pressure while heading into the European session on Thursday. The latest roadblock on the US-China trade deal is over the US farm products, as per the Wall Street Journal. Likely adding to the pessimism is the dragon nation’s objection over the US transit in Taiwan. Elsewhere, Hong Kong protesters pushed the government toward extended suspension of schools till the weekend while disturbing the life at large. On the economic front, China’s October month Industrial Production and Retail Sales numbers spread worries about the health of the world’s largest industrial player. Additionally, downbeat prints of Australian employment data also spread economic pessimism. In a reaction, MSCI’s index of Asian-Pacific shares outside Japan declines by nearly 0.4% while Japan’s NIKKEI drops 0.70% by the press time. Further, stocks in China, Australia and New Zealand gain amid expectations of further monetary easing whereas Hong Kong’s HANG SENG prints -0.80% mark. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 1.87% and the S&P 500 is nearly unchanged to 3,093 while writing. While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for Germany and Eurozone, coupled with the British Retail Sales, will decorate the economic calendar ahead of the US session, the second day of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony will be the key to watch during the US trading hours.

The renewed US-China trade tensions, escalating Hong Kong protests and poor macro news from leading Asia-pac economies once again induced a risk-off m

The renewed US-China trade tensions, escalating Hong Kong protests and poor macro news from leading Asia-pac economies once again induced a risk-off market profile this Thursday. Markets witnessed a shift in the risk sentiment, with the Asian stocks and Wall Street futures falling back into the red zone while Treasury yields pared back gains. The flight to safety put a fresh bid under the US dollar across its main peers while gold prices also firmed up slightly to trade above $ 1460 levels. Amongst the G10 currencies, the Aussie dollar was the weakest, as a big miss on the Australian Oct jobs fanned RBA rate cut bets. Further, the downbeat Chinese activity numbers exacerbated the pain in the Antipodean, knocking-off AUD/USD to monthly lows just under the 0.68 handle. The Kiwi also tracked the losses in the Aussie dollar and reversed RBNZ-led rally, with NZD/USD downed to near 0.6385 region. The Japanese yen, on the other hand, held the higher ground vs. the greenback despite poor Japanese Q3 GDP data. The prevalent risk-off sentiment dragged USD/JPY lower to hit weekly lows near 108.60. Meanwhile, USD/CAD traded with mild gains just above the 1.3250 level, as the resource-linked Loonie seemed to be somewhat supported by higher oil prices. Ahead of the European open, the EUR/USD pair remains pressured around the 1.10 handle while the GBP/USD pair slips below 1.2850, as markets await fresh economic releases for the next direction. Main Topics in Asia Farm purchases disrupt US-China trade talks US Pres. Trump: Turkey’s S400 buys creates serious challenges for US EU’s Hogan: UK consumers will expect EU standards in FTA - RTE Russia's Pres. Putin slams sanctions, says they impede global growth - Reuters Fed’s Daly: Fed is very focused on getting inflation higher Tories offer Nigel Farage eleventh-hour deal – The Telegraph Japan Preliminary Q3 GDP arrives at 0.1% QoQ vs. 0.2% expected Expert: US provokes China with Taiwan Straits transit, pressures trade talks – Global Times Australian Employment Change arrives at -19k in Oct vs. +15k expected RBNZ’s Bascand: We can move rates at Feb decision, if needed Fed's Harker: FOMC should hold steady Hong Kong’s civil unrest and chaos enters a fourth day this Thursday China’s Oct data dump: Downbeat across all indicators UK Brexit Party leader Farage: Will stand down no more candidates beyond the 317 Conservative seats     Key Focus Ahead Another hectic EUR economic calendar built up for the traders, as it kicks-off with the key German Preliminary Q3 GDP release, dropping in at 0700 GMT, soon followed by the Swiss Producer and Import prices due at 0730 GMT. Next of relevance remains the UK Retail Sales data for October lined up for release at 0930 GMT and Eurozone Preliminary Q3 GDP report at 1000 GMT. Amid the data releases, speech by ECB Vice President De Guindos and UK political developments will be closely watched. However, the main market driver will continue to remain the US-China trade negotiations, especially after the WSJ reported on Wednesday that the US-China trade talks have hit a snag over farm purchases. Besides, the US PPI and Jobless Claims data, due at 1330 GMT, will keep the NA traders busy. Markets will also stay focused on a slew of Fedspeak and the US weekly EIA Crude Stocks data due on the cards at 1600 GMT. When is the German Preliminary Q3 GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD? German Gross Domestic Product (GDP), due at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show the economy contracted 0.1% QoQ in June to September (Q3), having decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter. A negative GDP print won't be a surprise and could strengthen the bearish pressures around the EUR.  GBP/USD lingers over trade/political news, UK Retail Sales in focus Optimism surrounding the UK’s political plays confronts the broad US dollar (USD) strength ahead of the British Retail Sales data for October. That said, the GBP/USD pair hovers below 1.2850 while heading into the London open on Thursday. German Third Quarter GDP Preview:  Improving sentiment will limit recession GDP expected to show the second quarter of economic contraction. Investor sentiment has rebounded limiting the impact of negative growth. Economic data has improved in several important categories.  

Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge was up 0.2% m/m in October, supported by accommodation services, domestic airfares

Analysts at ANZ note that New Zealand’s ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge was up 0.2% m/m in October, supported by accommodation services, domestic airfares, and electricity price increases. Key Quotes “Annual inflation in the Gauge was flat at 3.1%, but a slowing economy and fading transitory strength should see annual non-tradable inflation fall over the next year.”

Despite trading near the highest in nearly five weeks, USD/CAD is likely to find multiple resistances on the upside as it takes rounds to 1.3260.

USD/CAD takes the bids to the monthly high.Overbought RSI conditions, nearness to key resistances could limit further upside.Two-week-old rising trend line acts as nearby key support.Despite trading near the highest in nearly five weeks, USD/CAD is likely to find multiple resistances on the upside as it takes rounds to 1.3260 during Thursday’s pre-European session. Among them, a 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.3280 will be the first one to question buyers, failing to which can escalate the pair’s rise to 1.3290/95 confluence comprising 50% Fibonacci retracement of May-July declines and a downward sloping trend-line since May-end. Should buyers ignore overbought conditions of 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and dominate beyond 1.3300 round figures, another descending resistance line, from June 18, can question them near 1.3340. Meanwhile, a two-week-old rising support line, at 1.3205, acts as immediate support that holds the key to pair’s fresh declines targeting 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3145. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, notes that Australia’s headline employment figure showed a much larger than expected 19 thousand decline in Oc

Robert Carnell, chief economist at ING, notes that Australia’s headline employment figure showed a much larger than expected 19 thousand decline in October against a consensus expectation for a 15 thousand increase (INGf +30K). Key Quotes “Sometimes, this weakness can be shrugged off as reflecting volatility in the part-time sector. Not this time. Full-time employment was down 10.3K and made worse by further falls in part-time employment too (-8.7K).” “The unemployment rate has been oscillating around 5.2/5.3% for some months. And this can often be put down to noise in the labour force data and participation rates. This time, the unemployment rate was largely driven by...rises in unemployment.” “The unemployment count rose by 17 thousand in October. Meanwhile, participation in the labour force actually dropped, so the rise in the unemployment numerator was divided by a smaller labour force denominator. There was only one way the unemployment rate was going after those movements, and that was up.”

Betty Wang, analyst at ANZ, points out that China’s manufacturing sector remained sluggish in October with no immediate respite likely, despite previo

Betty Wang, analyst at ANZ, points out that China’s manufacturing sector remained sluggish in October with no immediate respite likely, despite previous monetary easing measures. Key Quotes “Infrastructure investment retreated again, falling short of the government’s goal of shoring up overall investment.” “Property investment, however, continues to show resilience and will likely end the year at around 10% growth, according to our estimates.” “Today’s data suggests a need for more policy support, but it is unlikely to trigger large-scale stimulus measures.”

Optimism surrounding the UK’s political plays confronts the broad US dollar (USD) strength ahead of the British Retail Sales data for October.

GBP/USD struggles to justify increasing odds of a Tory leadership and overall USD strength.Nigel Farage rejects Tory offer to reduce Brexit party candidates, polls keep favoring the UK PM.US-China trade pessimism turns severe.Optimism surrounding the UK’s political plays confronts the broad US dollar (USD) strength ahead of the British Retail Sales data for October. That said, the GBP/USD pair takes rounds to 1.2840 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s rejection of the Conservative’s request of standing down more than 317 candidates, earlier promised, could negatively affect the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s popularity. The United Kingdom’s (UK) PM Johnson was recently hackled during a speech to the flood-affected area. Though, polls concerning December election keep showing Tories holding the power. On the other hand, uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal gets murkier after the former’s transit in Taiwan waters, as cited by China’s Global Times. Previously, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) spotted China’s refrain from mentioning the figures of the United States (US) farm imports in the deal as the current deadlock. Also contributing to the risk-tone is escalating protests in Hong Kong for the fourth consecutive day. As a result, bonds are on the hike while Asian equities decline further. The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, during his first day of Testimony, repeated previous statements conveying economic optimism while also praising the current monetary policy. The same could be witnessed in the latest Fedspeak. Moving on, October month UK Retail Sales may please the cable buyers if matching upbeat forecasts. However, the market’s rush to risk-safety can magnify the USD gains if the Fed Chair support upside momentum during his Testimony 2.0. Technical Analysis Repeated pullbacks from 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), at 1.2877 now, drag the quote to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September-October upside, at 1.2765, by the press time.  

German gross domestic product (GDP) due at 07:00 GMT is expected to show the economy contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in June to September (Q3) peri

German GDP overview German gross domestic product (GDP) due at 07:00 GMT is expected to show the economy contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in June to September (Q3) period, having decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter. The annualized GDP is forecasted to print at +0.5% in Q3 vs. the previous quarter's reading of +0.4%. How could it affect the EUR/USD? A negative GDP print won't be a surprise and could strengthen the bearish pressures around the EUR, undermined by the German manufacturing recession, even though the forward-looking German ZEW survey pointed to some improvement in the outlook for the German economy. Notably, at -2.1, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November surpassed expectations of -13 by a big margin. Meanwhile, the technical set up continues to favor the bears, as the pair remains on the track to test the immediate support of mid-October lows at 1.0991. A break below which could intensify selling pressure, as the bears eye 1.0950 (psychological level) as the next support. The further downside in spot could expose the multi-year lows of 1.0879 once again. However, if the data surprises on the upside, the pair could attempt a pullback towards 1.1040/56, the confluence zone of the 50 and 10-DMA. Buyers could yearn for a test of the 100-DMA at 1.1100 on a sustained break above the last. The 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) on the 4-hour chart has turned bullish, also favoring a case for a brief correction. Key Notes German Third Quarter GDP Preview:  Improving sentiment will limit recession Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD Chairman Powell Lauds Economy and Eschews Politics in Congressional Testimony About German GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish). 

Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ, suggests that Australia’s 19k drop in employment in October was the first drop since September 2016 and even

Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ, suggests that Australia’s 19k drop in employment in October was the first drop since September 2016 and even with a 0.1ppt drop in the participation rate to 66.0%, this saw the unemployment rate edge back up to 5.3%. Key Quotes “The weakness was broadly based, with full-time employment dropping 10.3k, while part-time employment fell 8.7k.” “Once again, the fall in the participation rate was entirely due to males, with the female participation rate holding steady at a record high of 61.2%. Despite this, male unemployment edged higher again to 5.5%, alongside a 18k drop in employment. The female unemployment rate also rose, up to 5.2%, with employment down a modest 1.4k.” “Along with the rise in unemployment, the underemployment rate reversed last month’s fall and rose 0.2ppt back to 8.5%. Total underutilisation is now back at the recent high of 13.8%. The persistent slack in the labour market was reflected in the Q3 Wage Price Index this week, which showed a wage growth slowdown.”

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) above forecasts (-0.6%) in September: Actual (1.8%)

Gerard Burg, senior economist at National Australia Bank (NAB) points out that most of China’s indicators were relatively weak in October as in additi

Gerard Burg, senior economist at National Australia Bank (NAB) points out that most of China’s indicators were relatively weak in October as in addition to the impact of the US-China trade war, they may also reflect disruptions caused by the celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China at the start of the month. Key Quotes “We argue that the weakness this month should not be over emphasised. Our forecasts for China’s economic growth are unchanged – at 6.1% for 2019, 5.9% for 2020 and 5.8% for 2021.” “Growth in China’s industrial production slowed again in October – increasing by 4.7% yoy (down from 5.8% previously). This was the second weakest rate of growth in ten years (compared with the 4.4% increase in August.” “Growth in China’s fixed asset investment slowed in October – down to 3.7% yoy (from 4.8% previously).” “China’s trade surplus edged slightly wider for the second straight month in October – to US$42.8 billion (from US$39.2 billion previously).” “Producer price deflation has continued to accelerate – suggesting that one impact of the US-China trade war has been for Chinese manufacturers to cut factory gate prices to support sales volumes. Producer prices fell by 1.6% yoy in October (compared with a 1.2% fall previously).” “The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the MLF rate by 5 basis points in early November – to 3.25% - which will likely be reflected in the benchmark Loan Prime Rate when it is announced on 20 November. Compared with policy easing in other countries, this cut was extremely modest, however the PBoC has scope to cut further and faster if required in the future.”      

Escalating protests in Hong Kong and uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal exert downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair as it drops to multi-day low.

USD/JPY drops to the eight-day low amid the on-going rush to risk-safety.Multiple resistances, bearish MACD keep buyers away.Escalating protests in Hong Kong and uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal exert downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair as it drops to multi-day low while trading near 108.70 ahead of Thursday’s European session. With the bearish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD), the quote is declining further towards the six-week-old rising support line, at 108.50 now. However, 108.30 confluence including 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October-November upside will challenge sellers afterward. Given the bears’ dominance past-108.30, the monthly bottom close to 108.00 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 107.60 could come back on the chart. Alternatively, 109.00 acts as an immediate upside barrier for the pair while a break of which could shift buyer’s attention to a horizontal line around 109.30 and then to monthly top adjacent to 109.50. During the quote’s run-up beyond 109.50, late-May tops near 110.00 and 110.70 could become bull’s favorites. USD/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Following initial uptick to the highest since September 04, USD/INR pulls back to 72.22, during Thursday’s pre-European session, as traders await Indian WPI.

USD/INR seesaws around 10-week high as Indian markets open on Thursday.Trade/geopolitical tension question the market’s risk tone ahead of the busy calendar.Indian WPI will trigger the catalyst flow that travels through Powell’s testimony and Fedspeak.Following initial uptick to the highest since September 04, USD/INR pulls back to 72.22, during Thursday’s pre-European session, as traders await Indian WPI data for fresh impulse. While the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal was already weighing on the market sentiment, also supporting the US dollar (USD), recent political tension between the United States (US) and China concerning Vietnam adds to the market’s rush towards the greenback. Also on the risk-negative side is the escalation of protests in Hong Kong for the fourth consecutive day. Protesters keep blocking the transportation means and injure citizens in the Asian country for multiple days in a row, which in turn pushes the government to extend the suspension of schools till this weekend. On a bit distant note, China’s downbeat Industrial Production and Retail Sales data for October also contribute to the USD strength. Elsewhere, the US 10-year Treasury yields take rounds to 1.9% while S&P 500 Futures and most of the Asian stocks are in the red by the press time. Traders now look forward to India’s October month WPI Inflation, expected 0.0% versus 0.33% prior, for fresh direction. However, major market attention will be on the trade/political headlines ahead of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s second day of Testimony and comments from some other Fed speakers. Technical Analysis Unless breaking 72.40 on a daily closing basis, September month high near 72.65 and 73.00 are far from bull’s reach, which in turn highlights the risk of a pullback to mid-October top near 71.80.  

Following no respite from the protests started since Monday, Hong Kong Government (Govt.) recently announced the suspension of schools will stretch.

Following no respite from the protests started since Monday, Hong Kong Government (Govt.) recently announced the suspension of schools will stretch till Friday to Sunday. Bloomberg relied on RHTK news while releasing the story, citing the chaos, which reported severe injuries to old and young alike. Key quotes Two people remain in critical condition from the recent clashes. One 70-year-old man was hit by what appeared to be a brick thrown by protesters, according to the government and police. A 15-year-old boy underwent brain surgery after sustaining a head injury from what may have been a tear gas canister. Chief Executive Carrie Lam held a late-night session with her advisors and government ministers last night, according to reports, and maybe considering further measures. She has previously vowed not to give in to violent demonstrations. FX implications Markets are sensitive to any new developments in Hong Kong and news of worsening situations negatively affects the risk-tone. That said, the USD/JPY pair declines to 108.70 by the press time.

Given the disappointment from China’s data-dump, NZD/USD extends pullback from near-term key resistance confluence as it trades around 0.6390.

NZD/USD retraces RBNZ-led gains after China data disappoints Antipodeans.100-day EMA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits near-term upside.0.6320 could follow 50-day EMA.Given the disappointment from China’s data-dump, NZD/USD extends pullback from near-term key resistance confluence as it trades around 0.6390, the intra-day low, while heading into the European open on Thursday. China’s October month Industrial Production slipped below 5.4% forecast and 5.8% prior to 4.8% while Retail Sales weakened to 7.2% versus 7.9% expected and 7.8% previous readouts. Also adding to the pair’s weakness is a recent comment from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand who said that the economy needs growth to exceed the potential for inflation. In doing so, a 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6373 acts as immediate support to watch ahead of multiple lows since Friday, around 0.6320, followed by an ascending trend line since October started, around 0.6300. On the upside, prices need a daily closing beyond 0.6428/30 resistance confluence, comprising 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-October declines, to aim for monthly top close to 0.6470 and 0.6500 round-figure. It should also be noted that the pair’s upside past-0.6500 will be challenged by 200-day EMA level of 0.6527. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

According to the UK’s Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, he would take on Labour and remainer parties in the election, as cited by Reuters. Key Quotes:

According to the UK’s Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, he would take on Labour and remainer parties in the election, as cited by Reuters. Key Quotes: "Will stand down no more candidates beyond the 317 Conservative seats his party has already withdrawn from." “No. That’s just a sort of attempt at intimidation that has come from elements of the press. No. We are going to take on all the remainers who are standing in this country.” “We’re going to stand against every single one of them.” Earlier today, the UK Telegraph reported that the UK ruling Conservatives Party offered an electoral pact to Brexit Party’s leader Nigel Farage. Meanwhile, the Cable is seen slipping slightly away from the midpoint of the 1.2850 level amid looming UK political risks and renewed trade tensions. Further, a series of downbeat UK macro data releases also keeps the pound undermined.

Following the releases of downbeat Chinese activity data, the spokesman for the country’s stats bureau, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighte

Following the releases of downbeat Chinese activity data, the spokesman for the country’s stats bureau, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) highlighted the following key points. China's economy faces many external uncertainties, downward pressure continues. Need efforts to achieve full-year employment target. Will resist downward economic pressure. AUD/USD extends south run as China data adds to Aussie disappointment

China’s key statistics add to the AUD/USD pair traders' disappointment during early Thursday.

AUD/USD drops to a four week low after China’s data dump.Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Fixed Asset Investment all joined the earlier released downbeat Aussie employment data.Risk tone stays sluggish amid trade/political pessimism, Hong Kong unrest.China’s key statistics add to the AUD/USD pair traders' disappointment during early Thursday. The quote stretches previous declines, triggered through downbeat Aussie jobs report, while taking rounds to 0.6800. China’s October month Industrial Production (YoY) rose 4.7% versus 5.4% forecast and 5.8% prior while Retail Sales grew 7.2% against 7.9% expected and 7.8% prior on the yearly basis. Further, Fixed Asset Investment also weakened to 5.2% from 5.4% expected and prior. October month Australian employment report disappointed Aussie traders earlier during the day as the Employment Change slumped heavily versus +15K forecast to -19K. Also exerting downside pressure were downbeat readings of Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate and Fulltime Employment data. Trade sentiment remains under pressure as the US-China trade deal stalemate joins the latest tension surrounding Taiwan, as noted by the Global Times. Additionally, the fourth consecutive day of Hong Kong protests weighs on the market’s risk-tone. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw around 1.90% while S&P 500 Futures cheer expectations of further monetary policy easing from global central banks, based on the recently downbeat data. Although the Asian economic calendar turns lighter now, the second testimony from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will be the key to watch during the later part of the day. The Fed Chair repeated the previous comments during his initial appearance on Wednesday. Technical Analysis Multiple stops since late-September portray 0.6805/0.6800 as the key support zone, a break of which could drag the pair to 0.6770. On the contrary, the pair’s pullback needs to cross 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6855 in order to aim for 0.6900 mark.  

China’s October Retail Sales YoY, the number arrived at +7.2% vs. +7.9% exp and +7.8% last, with Industrial Output YoY at +4.7% and +5.4% exp and +5.8

China’s October Retail Sales YoY, the number arrived at +7.2% vs. +7.9% exp and +7.8% last, with Industrial Output YoY at +4.7% and +5.4% exp and +5.8 last. China's Industrial Production growth skidded to its weakest pace in 17 years and a half in August Meanwhile, Fixed Asset Investment YoY stood at +5.2% vs. +5.4% expected and +5.4% last. 

China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) registered at 5.2%, below expectations (5.4%) in October

China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 4.7%, below expectations (5.4%) in October

China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 7.2%, below expectations (7.9%) in October

Michele Bullock, RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System), was on the wires earlier today, with the key comments reported by Bloomberg are hereunder.

Michele Bullock, RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System), was on the wires earlier today, with the key comments reported by Bloomberg are hereunder. Investors chasing yield, pushing up asset prices. The economic environment is uncertain. "There's no compensation for the risk that some of these corporates" are taking. Companies "might be impacted by a global economic downturn". If the relationship between unemployment and inflation reasserts itself there will be a "snap back" in risk-free rates and a likely fall in asset prices in other areas … "if that happens and people are indebted and they've got lots of leverage you've potentially got issues for the financial system. The Aussie was unchanged on the earlier comments that did not touch upon RBA's monetary policy outlook, now meandering just ahead of three-week lows of 0.6803. The spot lost nearly 40-pips on a big miss on the Australian Jobs data for October. 

The Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take an ugly turn for the fourth straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in bla

The Hong Kong civil unrest and violence take an ugly turn for the fourth straight day on Thursday, after the police reported that a man dressed in black and aged in his 30s died. Although it was unclear if his death was related to ongoing protests in the Chinese-ruled city. On Wednesday, the violence in the Chinese-ruled city reached a “very dangerous and even deadly level” after anti-government protesters barged in at several university campuses across Hong Kong, with schools and transportation shut down. “Demonstrators have been protesting since June about what they see as meddling by Beijing in the freedoms guaranteed under the “one country, two systems” formula put in place when the former British colony returned to Chinese rule in 1997. China denies interfering in Hong Kong’s affairs”, as cited by Reuters. Despite the Hong Kong chaos and renewed US-China trade tensions, the market mood seems to be improving over the last, with S&P 500 futures having turned positive alongside the Japanese stocks. This has helped put a minor bid under USD/JPY that now flirts with session highs near 108.85 region. Hong Kong leader Lam: Protesters 'paralysing' the city are extremely selfish Senior US official: The US condemns the “unjustified use of deadly force” in the latest Hong Kong violence – Sky News Hong Kong protesters shot by police amid ongoing demonstrations – Reuters

Despite staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), EUR/USD bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upside.

EUR/USD stays below 200-bar SMA.A downside break could recall October 08 low.38.2% Fibonacci retracement adds to the resistance.Despite staying below 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), EUR/USD bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its October month upside while taking rounds to 1.1006 during early Thursday. Favoring the price pullback is a bullish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD). However, bulls are likely to wait for an upside break of 200-bar SMA, at 1.1058 now, followed by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and late-October lows surrounding 1.1065/75, to target 1.1100 mark. In a case where prices keep trading southwards and break 1.0994 level of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, October 08 low near 1.0940 and the previous month bottom around 1.0880 will be the bears’ favorites. EUR/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

While carrying forward its near-term trading range between 21-day EMA and a four-week-old falling trend line, the GBP/JPY pair trades around 139.77.

GBP/JPY has been range-bound since mid-October.A gradually declining RSI reflects the price weakness from 141.50.23.6% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day EMA could come back on the chart on the downside break.While carrying forward its near-term trading range between 21-day EMA and a four-week-old falling trend line, the GBP/JPY pair trades around 139.77 amid the initial Thursday. However, gradually declining levels of 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), coupled with the recent weakness in prices, signal pair’s declines to 138.00/137.80 confluence including 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of August-September upside and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) should the quote drop below 21-day EMA level of 139.22. If at all bears keep dominating past-137.80, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and September month high could please sellers around 135.75. Meanwhile, pair’s break of monthly trend line resistance, at 140.50 now, can trigger fresh run-up to October month high near 141.50. During the pair’s further rise past-141.50, late-May top close to 141.75 will be on the bulls’ radars. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: Sideways  

On Thursday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0083 versus Wednesday’s fix at 7.0026.

On Thursday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0083 versus Wednesday’s fix at 7.0026. Meanwhile, the PBOC skips the open market operations (OMO) for the third straight session while no Reverse Repos mature today.

Fed's Harker: FOMC should hold steady More to come

Fed's Harker: FOMC should hold steady   More to come

While the US-China trade stalemate was already exerting downside pressure on the AUD/JPY pair, a surprise negative AU data dragged the quote even lower.

AUD/JPY losses more than 30 pips after Australian employment change surprised markets.Traders earlier ignored Japan’s mildly soft GDP amid trade/political tension.Trade headlines, China’s data dump will be the key to watch for now.While the US-China trade stalemate was already exerting downside pressure on the AUD/JPY pair, a surprise negative reading of Australian employment change figure drags the quote down to 74.00 by the press time of Thursday’s Asian session. Australia’s October month seasonally adjusted Employment Change dropped below 15K forecast and a revised 12.5K prior to -19K. Also exerting downside pressure on the prices is an Unemployment rate of 5.3%, versus 5.3% forecast and 5.2% prior, Full-Time Employment Change to -10.3K from 24.9K (revised) and 66.00% Participation Rate against 66.1% expected and previous. Previously, the preliminary reading of Japan’s third-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) lagged behind 0.2% expectations and 0.3% previous to 0.1% on QoQ basis. On the news front, risk sentiment is negatively affected due to the increasing tension between the United States (US) and China. Not only trade deadlock (as conveyed by the Wall Street Journal) but political rift concerning Taiwan, recently noted by China’s Global Times, also signals that the world’s top two economies will find it hard to reach the much-awaited phase one trade deal in December. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields stay sluggish around 1.88% while S&P500 Futures decline near 0.11% by the time of writing. Investors will now focus on China’s October month Retail Sales and Industrial Production, coupled with Japan’s September month Tertiary Industry Index, for immediate direction. However, overall market moves will be governed by trade/political headlines. Technical Analysis An upward sloping trend line since late-August, around 73.25 now, gains bears’ attention while 75.00 and 75.30 can entertain buyers during the pullback.  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, as he expresses his afterthoughts on the below forecasts J

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, as he expresses his afterthoughts on the below forecasts Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP report. Key Quotes: GDP data shows economy in gradual recovery. Will closely watch private consumption. Expect moderate econ recovery to continue ahead. Must be vigilant to effects of sales tax hike, will prepare against downside risks from overseas economies. Will do utmost to compile solid econ package to overcome downside econ risks. Demand rush ahead of sales tax hike was smaller than before previous tax increase. Exports of autos, electronics parts remain weak. Effects from worsening ties with South Korea had big impact on weak exports. Fundamentals that support private consumption remain solid. Economy still halfway to completely beating deflation. USD/JPY unfazed near 108.80 by Japan’s Q3 GDP miss amid trade woes

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand was on the wires some minutes ago, via Reuters, throwing some fresh insights into Wednesday

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand was on the wires some minutes ago, via Reuters, throwing some fresh insights into Wednesday’s surprise rates on-hold decision by the central bank. Key Quotes: We made a call to "bide our time for now", if we need to, we can move rates at Feb decision. The significant amount of stimulus we've put in place is working its way through the economy.  Will take into account inflation data, labour data, bank capital review among other factors in next rates decision.  We don't think the interest rate impact of our bank capital proposals would be extensive. Has not made final decision on bank capital requirements, but "we've been clear capital is going up". The Kiwi is under pressure once again just below the 0.64 handle, partly sold-off into the Aussie’s downbeat Australian jobs data-led slump while the above comments also add to the weakness.

Australia Part-Time Employment up to -8.7K in October from previous -11.4K

Having witnessed a surprise drop in Australian Employment Change, AUD/USD nosedives to 0.6812 by the press time of early Thursday.

AUD/USD flashes the fresh low since October 25.Aussie employment change disappointed the buyers.Trade difference between the US and China takes another turn.Having witnessed a surprise drop in Australian Employment Change, AUD/USD nosedives to 0.6812 by the press time of early Thursday. Australia’s October month employment report flashed downbeat signals with the headline Employment Change dropping to -19K from +15K expected. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate matched anticipated increase of 5.3% from 5.2% prior. Recently released November month Consumer Inflation Expectations, from the Melbourne Institute, crossed 3.2% forecast and 3.6% prior to 4.0%. However, the data failed to have any major response ahead of the key jobs report. Additionally, China’s Global Times’ report that the US provokes the dragon nation with Taiwan Straits transit and the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s latest indirect criticism to the US trade protectionism also dims the Aussie moves. Earlier, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) released news that the trade talks between the United States (US) and China are hanged over the disagreement on China’s import of the US farm products. Having witnessed the initial reaction to the Australian October month jobs report, investors will now focus on China’s October month Retail Sales and Industrial Production data. While the Retail Sales YoY is expected to recover from 7.8% to 7.9%, Industrial Production could weaken to 5.4% from 5.8% on a yearly basis. It should, however, be noted, that any developments concerning the US-China trade deal will have a higher market reaction. Technical Analysis Unless providing a decisive break beyond either the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6833 or the 100-day EMA level of 0.6856, prices are less likely to register much momentum. In doing so, 0.6770 and 0.6900 will be the keys to watch.

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4%, above expectations (3.2%) in November

Australian Employment Change arrives at -19k in Oct vs. +15k expected – Aussie drops sharply More to come

Australia unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent in October, as the economy lost 19,000 jobs, the latest data published by Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed this Thursday. The markets were expecting a job addition of 15,000.  Employment for the previous month was 14,700 addition. Meanwhile, full-time jobs came in at -10,300 compared to +26,200 seen in September. The AUD/USD pair drops sharply to test the 0.68 handle on a big miss on the Australian Oct jobs report. 

Australia Participation Rate below expectations (66.1%) in October: Actual (66%)

Australia Employment Change s.a. below forecasts (15K) in October: Actual (-19K)

Australia Fulltime Employment declined to -10.3K in October from previous 26.2K

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. meets expectations (5.3%) in October

The USD/JPY pair stalls its recovery from six-day lows of 108.65 and holds its range around 108.80 region, as the renewed US-China trade jitters negat

USD/JPY takes cues from US-China trade woes-led risk aversion. Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP miss fails to move the spot. Focus stays on trade developments, US data and more Powell. The USD/JPY pair stalls its recovery from six-day lows of 108.65 and holds its range around 108.80 region, as the renewed US-China trade jitters negate the impact of the downbeat Japanese growth figures on the Yen. USD/JPY: 200- DMA at 109.02 – A tough nut to crack The Japanese Preliminary Q3 GDP rate grew less-than-expected across the time horizon but it the Japanese yen paid little heed to the downbeat release, as it continued to find support from the risk-off action in the global equities and Wall Street futures after US-China trade tensions resurfaced in the overnight trades. A fresh Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report stating that US-China talks "hit a snag over farm purchases", triggered a renewed risk-off wave across the American markets that spoilt the Wall Street party induced by the Fed Chair Powell’s upbeat remarks on the US economic outlook. Meanwhile, the spot also fails to find any impetus from the range-bound trading seen in the US dollar across its main peers over the last two trading sessions. Also, as the technical set up keeps the pair capped between the 200-DMA at 109.02 and channel support seen at 108.54. The focus stays on the US-China trade headlines and its impact on the risk sentiment, which continues to play a pivotal role in the USD/JPY price-action. Markets also look forward to the US Producer Price Index and Jobless Claims data ahead of Day 2 of Powell’s testimony. USD/JPY Technical levels to consider  

China’s Global Times recently ran a story, while relying on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command, that threaten market sentiment.

China’s Global Times recently ran a story, while relying on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command, that China should strengthen its military capability as the United States (US) increases its military provocations targeting China's sovereignty over Taiwan, which could increase potential risks of a military conflict. Key quotes All movements of US vessel and aircraft are kept under surveillance by the Chinese military, Senior Colonel Zhang Chunhui, spokesperson of PLA Eastern Theater Command said on Wednesday while responding to the transit of US guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville through the Taiwan Straits. The Chinese military will remain on high alert at all times, and will resolutely safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The warship's presence in narrow waters between the island of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland is seen as a provocation given the Taiwan question, and adding interference in Hong Kong riots, the US wants to pressure China to make concession on other issues such as the ongoing trade war, said Song Zhongping, a military expert and TV commentator. China has repeatedly said it will not hesitate to use force over the Taiwan question if necessary so the US should not support Taiwan secessionists or underestimate China's determination and resolve even if it means unimaginable military conflict between China and the US, Song noted. FX implications News like this keeps markets on toes, amid US-China trade pessimism, which in turn could weigh on the Antipodeans and the risk-tone. As a result, safe-havens could extend the recent recovery.

Not only a lack of clear signal concerning the US-Sino trade deal but the inability of the global policymakers to provide any direct hints adds to gold strength

Markets keep struggling with the US-China trade deal developments.US CPI, Powell’s testimony failed to provide any direction.Aussie employment, China’s data dump to decorate the Asian economic calendar before the key catalysts from the UK, EU and the US arrive.Not only a lack of clear signal concerning the US-Sino trade deal but the inability of the global policymakers to provide any direct hints for future monetary actions also confuse markets. As a result, investors keep their faith in the Gold that is currently trading around $1,464 by the press time of early Asian morning on Thursday. In contrast to the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s earlier statement that both sides are ‘close’ to the deal, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently reported that the disagreement over China’s import of the US farm products hit the snag in the trade talks. Also adding to the uncertainty are the latest comments from China’s President Xi Jinping who indirectly criticized US trade protectionism. Elsewhere, heads of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept repeating their previous statements that highlight the importance of incoming data. Further, headline inflation numbers from the Eurozone, the US and the UK also showed a mixed picture, which in turn contributed to the overall indecision and a rush towards risk-safety. In doing so, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped to sub-1.9% while equities also registered a sluggish trading session by the end of Wednesday. Looking forward, October month employment data from Australia and Retail Sales/Industrial Production from China will gain the traders’ immediate attention. Following that will be the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Eurozone, the United Kingdom’s (UK) Retail Sales and the second appearance of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell for testimony. Although key data are anticipated to offer an active session ahead, trade headlines keep the drivers’ seat. Technical Analysis Prices now seesaw around 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level around $1,464. 21-day EMA level of 1,481 acts as immediate resistance while a downside break below the recent low of 1,445.80 highlights the importance of 200-day EMA level of 1,413.  

United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance below expectations (-4%) in October: Actual (-5%)

Japan’s economy grew an annualized 0.2% in June-September, less than the estimate of a 0.8% expansion and +1.3% seen last, the preliminary data from t

Japan’s economy grew an annualized 0.2% in June-September, less than the estimate of a 0.8% expansion and +1.3% seen last, the preliminary data from the Cabinet Office showed Thursday. On a quarter-on-quarter, (QoQ) basis GDP expanded 0.1%, compared with a 0.3% growth seen in the previous quarter and a median forecast of 0.2%. USD/JPY kept its range around 108.80, as the JPY was little affected by the downbeat Japanese Q3 GDP first reading. About Japanese GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 3Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized below forecasts (0.8%) in 3Q: Actual (0.2%)

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 3Q: Actual (0.1%)

Japan Foreign Bond Investment declined to ¥528.8B in November 8 from previous ¥668.1B

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks climbed from previous ¥420.9B to ¥569.5B in November 8

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) started out this Thursday modestly flat, although remains close to Wednesday’ high of 57.53, reached after the release of t

Oil cautious amid fresh US-China trade tensions on farm purchases.  But bulls find some support from bullish API crude data. Awaits fresh trade updates and EIA Crude Stocks data for further impulse.WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) started out this Thursday modestly flat, although remains close to Wednesday’ high of 57.53, reached after the release of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) bullish weekly Crude Stocks report. The API data showed that the US crude inventories fell by 541,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8 to 440 million versus expectations for an increase of 1.6 million barrels. The black gold staged a solid comeback on Wednesday and recovered more than a dollar, helped by the upbeat remarks on the economic outlook from the Fed Chair Powell and OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo. Powell said in his testimony that the US economy would see a "sustained expansion" with the full impact of recent interest rate cuts still to be felt. Meanwhile, Barkindo noted that global economic fundamentals remained strong and he saw no signs of a global recession. However, the black gold stalled its recovery momentum, as the US-China trade jitters resurfaced weighed negatively on the higher-yielding oil. The Wall Street Journal reported US-China trade negotiations "hit a snag" over farm purchases, which reinforced fresh doubts over the likely trade deal and triggered a fresh bout of risk-aversion. Looking ahead, the trade-related headlines will continue to have a significant influence on the prices, as markets await the official weekly US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Stocks data, dropping later on Thursday at 1600 GMT. WTI Levels to watch    

With the consecutive two Doji formations of the GBP/USD pair’s daily chart, the quote portrays traders’ indecision while taking rounds to 1.2850.

Back-to-back Doji candlesticks portray GBP/USD traders’ indecision.Bearish MACD, gradual weakness keeps sellers hopeful.With the consecutive two Doji formations of the GBP/USD pair’s daily chart, the quote portrays traders’ indecision while taking rounds to 1.2850 amid Thursday’s Asian session. Bearish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD), failure to cross 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a gradual downpour since October 21 favors the sellers. However, the quote declines below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September-October upside, at 1.2765, become necessary to aim for 1.2700 and September month high near 1.2580. Alternatively, pair’s upside clearance of 21-day SMA, at 1.2877 now, can propel prices to monthly top surrounding 1.2975 whereas 1.3000 and the October month high around 1.3015 could question bulls afterward. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Sideways  

Amid pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, AUD/USD traders will keep an eye over the Aussie jobs report.

Amid pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal, AUD/USD traders will keep an eye over the Aussie jobs report. Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for publishing October month employment data at 00:30 GMT on Thursday. Downbeat unemployment in September particularly gained market’s attention as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) observes it closely for future rate moves. Market consensus favors Employment Change to improve to 15.0K from 14.7K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely returning to 5.3% from 5.2% prior. Also, no change is anticipated in 66.1% Participation Rate. Westpac also expects a downbeat jobs report as their analysts say, The dip in Australia’s unemployment rate from 5.3% in Aug to 5.2% in Sep had a big impact on markets, A$ bouncing and pricing for an RBA Nov rate cut sliding. The unemployment rate should remain the most sensitive number for markets in the Oct labor force survey (11:30 m Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK). The median forecast is 5.2% but Westpac looks for it to round up to 5.3%, with total employment +17k (median +15k). The participation rate in Sep dipped 0.1ppt from its record high but remains tough to predict month to month so there is plenty of scope for a surprise. TD Securities, on the other hand, expect no fireworks from the data, There were no material surprises in the Sep employment report. For Oct Employment we pencil in a 26k gain, 66.2% part rate and 5.2% unemployment rate, which should keep the RBA on the sidelines in Dec. How could the data affect AUD/USD? RBA’s recent downgrade of growth forecast and sustained emphasis on the jobs report for the future decisions indicates that today’s data release will be the key to anticipate a rate cut by the Aussie central bank in early 2020, which is largely anticipated. While no major surprises are expected, despite the Unemployment rate returning to 5.3%, investors could cheer any upbeat readings to recover the recent losses. Technically, the Aussie pair struggles to find the directions after the recent pullback from 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which in turn could push the quote towards 0.6855 and 200-day EMA level around 0.6940. However, a downside break below the 50-day EMA level, 0.6833 now, could recall 0.6800 to the chart.Key Notes AUD/USD bounces off 50-day EMA ahead of Aussie jobs report, China’s data dump AUD/USD Forecast: Nearing 0.6800 ahead of employment data About the Employment Change The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). About the Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

The UK’s Daily Telegraph is out with the latest story, citing that the ruling Conservatives Party has offered an electoral pact to Brexit Party’s lead

The UK’s Daily Telegraph is out with the latest story, citing that the ruling Conservatives Party has offered an electoral pact to Brexit Party’s leader Nigel Farage. An electoral pact would mean the Brexit Party targets just 40 key seats Additional Details: “Boris Johnson was prepared to put up “paper candidates” in the Labour-held constituencies, meaning the Tories would carry out only minimal campaigning in order to give an advantage to Brexit Party rivals. However, the deal was turned down by Mr Farage, who had insisted on the Tories withdrawing their candidates altogether from the seats, because he was worried that the Conservative candidates would still attract votes. Talks finally broke down late on Tuesday but as the deadline for nominations approaches at 4pm on Thursday.”

With the RSI returning to normal conditions, AUD/JPY bounces off 100-day EMA while trading around 74.40 during the initial Thursday morning in Asia.

AUD/JPY recently bounces off 100-day EMA.RSI returning to normal conditions signal pullback from the key supports.200-day EMA acts as the strong upside resistance.With the RSI returning to normal conditions, AUD/JPY bounces off 100-day EMA while trading around 74.40 during the initial Thursday morning in Asia. The prices have been on the downward trajectory since the last four-day. The beginning was initially triggered by overbought conditions of 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While buyers can take aim at 75.00 and 75.30, considering the recent U-turn and RSI levels, further upside will be capped by a 200-day EMA level of 75.50. On the downside, pair’s declines below 100-day EMA level of 74.20 needs to slip below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August declines, at 73.87, to target an upward sloping trend line since August 26, at 73.25 now. In a case where prices decline below 73.25, the return of sub-72.00 area can’t be denied. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Towards NY closing, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly crossed the wires, via Reuters, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Key Quotes: Rate

Towards NY closing, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly crossed the wires, via Reuters, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Key Quotes: Rate cuts this year have put policy in a very good place. The current policy rate is appropriate for economy that we have now. We can keep the stance until inflation is back at target. Risks include slower global growth, Brexit, trade issues. Seems like there is still room to run in the labor market. If global growth gets slower, trade uncertainty is prolonged, that could materially change outlook; Economy is in a good place in part due to Fed's rate cuts; Open to the idea that risks are on the downside. Fed is very focused on getting inflation higher. Fed must get inflation to 2% for the next downturn. We are surprised how low jobless can go without inflation. It's hard to know reasons for slowing and China's economy. Fed must manage payment system risks from climate change. Daly’s comments had virtually no impact on the US dollar index, as it traded around 98.30 levels, with markets digesting the latest US-China trade jitters. Farm purchases disrupt US-China trade talks

A lack of consensus on the US-China phase one deal joins upbeat catalysts from the United States (US) to drag the AUD/USD pair down recently.

AUD/USD looks for direction after consecutive four days of declines.Trade pessimism weighs on the pair, upbeat US CPI, Powell added weakness.Australia’s employment report, China’s Retail Sales, Industrial Production awaited.A lack of consensus on the US-China phase one deal joins upbeat catalysts from the United States (US) to drag the AUD/USD pair down recently. The quote takes the rounds to 0.6840, by early Thursday morning in Asia, after witnessing four back-to-back days of declines. Diplomats from the US and China keep arguing over the phase one deal, with the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) latest report citing disagreement over farm products, which in turn weighs on the market’s sentiment and the Aussie pair. This stopped buyers from cheering the welcome numbers from Westpac Consumer Confidence on early Wednesday. It should also be noted that an unchanged print of the third quarter (Q3) Wage Price Index generated no major reaction. On the other hand, better than expected prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s refrain from using any new statements also contributed to the pair’s weakness. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yields slip to sub-1.9% area while Wall Street registered mildly bid closings on Wednesday. Traders will now concentrate on the key Aussie employment numbers for October and China’s Retail Sales/Industrial Production. It should also be noted that Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for November and speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock can act as intermediate catalysts. Ahead of the events, Westpac says, “The dip in Australia’s unemployment rate from 5.3% in Aug to 5.2% in Sep had a big impact on markets, A$ bouncing and pricing for an RBA Nov rate cut sliding. The unemployment rate should remain the most sensitive number for markets in the Oct labor force survey (11:30 am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK). The median forecast is 5.2% but Westpac looks for it to round up to 5.3%, with total employment +17k (median +15k). The participation rate in Sep dipped 0.1ppt from its record high but remains tough to predict month to month so there is plenty of scope for a surprise. China releases Oct activity data at 1 pm Syd/10 am local: industrial production, retail sales and retail sales. We focus most on IP, which has been very volatile this year, including a 17 year low of 4.4% in Aug. Consensus is for a modest 5.4%yr gain after 5.8%yr in Sep.” While a mixed outcome is mostly expected to keep the traders guessing, pessimism surrounding the US-China trade deal can continue exerting downside pressure on the quote. Technical Analysis Despite pair’s recent bounce, 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6855 and 200-day EMA level around 0.6940 keep exerting downside pressure on the prices. Sellers await a clear break of 50-day EMA level, 0.6833 now, to aim for 0.6800 mark.

While speaking before the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries in Brazil late-Wednesday, Russian President Vladi

While speaking before the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries in Brazil late-Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced his concerns over the slowing global economy due to protectionism and sanctions, Reuters reports. Key Headlines: Situation in global economy is still difficult. Global economy has been impacted by sanctions. Protectionism is flourishing. Russian economy is not rising enough. Welcomes foreign investment in Russia’s of z bonds. Russia is ready to increase usage of clean fuel, renewables. The above comments had little to no impact on the market sentiment, as US equities finished slightly higher alongside the Wall Street futures while USD/JPY trades on the back foot around 108.80, unimpressed by the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony amid growing trade uncertainties.

The European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner-designate Phil Hogan was on the wires last minutes, via RTE, noting that “the UK consumers will expect Brit

The European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner-designate Phil Hogan was on the wires last minutes, via RTE, noting that “the UK consumers will expect Britain to sign up to the EU’s labor, environmental and food standards as part of a free trade agreement (FTA) for which he will be chief negotiator next year”. When asked how quickly the trade negotiations could be concluded, Hogan said: “The EU would be ready to go “before St Patrick’s Day” next year, but that the UK would have to decide early on in the negotiations which EU rules they were prepared to sign up to.” “We’re not starting from zero so therefore I believe we can do - with a bit of good will on both sides - we can do an agreement more quickly than we would do with any other negotiations around the world which would take three or four years", he added.

The Euro, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below the main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). This Wednesday, the market is ending the day virtu

EUR/USD is entering the Asian session under bearish pressure near one-month lows.The level to beat for sellers is the 1.0995 support level.  EUR/USD daily chart   The Euro, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below the main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). This Wednesday, the market is ending the day virtually unchanged.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   The market is under pressure below the 1.1016 resistance level. The spot is likely looking for an extension of the bearish move towards the 1.0995, 1.0965 and 1.0920 support levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      EUR/USD 30-minute chart   The Euro is under pressure below its main SMAs. Resistance can be seen at the 1.1016, 1.1033, 1.1056 and 1.1079 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   Additional key levels  
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