Amaran risiko: CFD ialah instrumen yang kompleks dan terdapat risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang dengan cepat disebabkan oleh leveraj. 90% daripada akaun pelabur runcit kerugian wang apabila berdagang CFD dengan penyedia ini. Anda perlu mempertimbangkan sama ada anda memahami cara CFD berfungsi dan sama ada anda boleh menanggung risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang anda.
Amaran risiko: CFD ialah instrumen yang kompleks dan terdapat risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang dengan cepat disebabkan oleh leveraj. 90% daripada akaun pelabur runcit kerugian wang apabila berdagang CFD dengan penyedia ini. Anda perlu mempertimbangkan sama ada anda memahami cara CFD berfungsi dan sama ada anda boleh menanggung risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang anda.

Garis Masa Berita Forex

Khamis, Mac 21, 2019

AUD/NZD is on bids around 1.0340 during early Asian sessions on Thursday. The quote recently bounced off 1.0297 low as eight-year low of 4.9% Austral

AUD/NZD is on bids around 1.0340 during early Asian sessions on Thursday.The quote recently bounced off 1.0297 low as eight-year low of 4.9% Australian unemployment rate grabbed more market attention than softer employment change figure of 4.6K versus 14.0K expected and 39.1K prior.While oversold levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) and upbeat jobs report helped the pair to reverse from day’s low, three-week long descending resistance-line and mid-February lows can confine latest advances around 1.0365/70.Given the price rise beyond 1.0370, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of February – March declines, at 1.0390, followed by 1.0400, could please buyers.Additionally, the pair’s successful trading above 1.0400 can further escalate the recovery towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0450.Alternatively, pair’s slip under 1.0297 may need to clear early-month low around 1.0290 in order to aim for 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) level of 1.0250.Also, September 2016 bottom around 1.0230 and mid-April 2015 support near 1.0220 can flash on bears’ radar past-1.0250.AUD/NZD 4-Hour chart 

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a surprise drop in the jobless rate at 00:30 GMT, sending the Aussie dollar higher across the board.  Th

AUD has picked up a strong bid on a surprise drop in the Aussie unemployment report. The economy added fewer jobs that expected in February. Further, the labor force participation ticked lower and the quality of jobs deteriorated. That could cap gains in the pair.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a surprise drop in the jobless rate at 00:30 GMT, sending the Aussie dollar higher across the board.  The AUD/JPY pair jumped 44 pips to a session high of 79.35 and was last seen trading at 79.30.  The jobless rate, which was expected to remain unchanged at 5 percent, dropped to near eight-year low of 4.9 percent in February, signaling tightness in the labor market.  That, however, may not weaken the odds of a near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia, as the jobs growth was hardly impressive. To start with, the economy added just 4.6k jobs in February compared to 39.1K additions in January and more importantly, full-time jobs dropped by 7.3K, having surged by 65.4k in January. The AUD, therefore, may have a hard time extending or holding on to the gains seen at press time, unless the equities surge in response to the dovish Fed, strengthening the offered tone around the anti-risk JPY. Technical Levels 

The bid tone around the Aussie dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/USD to a three-week high of 0.7162 as the official data released soon before press

A surprise drop in Australia's jobless rate is pushing the AUD higher. The gains, however, could be short-lived, as the quality of the jobs deteriorated in February.  The bid tone around the Aussie dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/USD to a three-week high of 0.7162 as the official data released soon before press time showed Australia's jobless rate fell to a fresh seven-year low of 4.9 percent in February. The unemployment rate was expected to hold steady at 5 percent.  The drop in the jobless rate, however, is accompanied by a decline in the labor force participation rate to 65.6 percent from the previous month's print of 65.7 percent. Further, the economy added just 4.6k jobs in February compared to 39.1K additions in January, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Notably, the actual figure missed the consensus estimate of 14K by a wide margin.  Full-time jobs dropped 7.3K, having surged 65.4K in January, while part-time jobs rose 11.9K, having dropped 26.3K in the previous months.  All-in-all, the data indicates that the labor market weakened in February. Therefore, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by August, which was seen at 64 percent yesterday, could rise even further. After all, the RBA is banking on the labor market to cushion the impact of a slowdown in the property market.  The AUD, therefore, may have a tough time holding on to gains seen at press time. That said, the pullback could find the support of the 5-day moving average (MA) of 0.7109, as the American dollar is on the defensive, courtesy of the dovish Fed. Technical Levels 

Australia’s February labour force survey has arrived - but it wasn't as if a one-off softer reading was going to really change the RBA's mindset about

Australia’s February labour force survey has arrived - but it wasn't as if a one-off softer reading was going to really change the RBA's mindset about how robust the labour force is in Australia. "In the minutes of the 5 March Board meeting, RBA members “observed that labour market conditions had continued to improve, despite a slowing in the momentum of output growth in the second half of 2018,” noted analysts at Westpac. Meanwhile, the data has arrived as follows:  Employment Change +4.6K for a miss vs expected +15K, prior +39.1K. Unemployment Rate 4.9% a beat vs expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%. Full-Time Employment Change -7.3K  vs prior was +65.4K. Part Time Employment Change +11.9K  vs prior was -26.3K. Participation Rate 65.6% -  a miss vs expected 65.7%, prior was 65.7%. The market reaction has been to back the Aussie on the Unemployment Rate 4.9% - AUD/USD has leaped about 50 pips - But it is worth noting that Tokyo is out, so there is less liquidity out there.About the Unemployment Rate The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Australia Part-Time Employment climbed from previous -26.3K to 11.9K in February

Australia Fulltime Employment fell from previous 65.4K to -7.3K in February

Australia Employment Change s.a. registered at 4.6K, below expectations (14K) in February

Australia Participation Rate came in at 65.6% below forecasts (65.7%) in February

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 4.9%, below expectations (5%) in February

Ichimoku long strategy: Price must close above the Cloud. Cloud ahead must be bullish (green). Conversion Line is greater than the base-line. La

Bulls were targeting 1315 ahead of the Fed, which has been surpassed now, where it meets the trend-line prior support of the rising channel - 1313 was the 50% Fibo target which has now been conquered in this recent bout of demand post dovish Fed. On the next leg up, bulls need to get above 1321 as the 61.8% Fibo.However, prior to that, where the eclipse has marked on the 4HR chart, bulls have the 'bar-brawl' breakout band to conquer first, a potential bull trap between 1316 resistance, descending trendline resistance and then the 61.8% Fibo. Depending on one's risk appetite, the Ichimoku Cloud's bullish criteria could be a comfort as a filter by those wishing to engage in a long position immediately/or wait for a break of trendline resistances:Ichimoku long strategy:Price must close above the Cloud.Cloud ahead must be bullish (green).Conversion Line is greater than the base-line.Lagging Span is greater than or crosses above the cloud. On a break above the 61.8% Fibo, 1332 guards the 2019 highs as being the 19th Feb high of 1345.19. While 4HR Stochastics are neutral, there is still a risk that the Ichimoku Cloud bull strategy had already signalled that breakout overnight with the Laggin Span moving above the cloud on the Fed's price action. Repeated failures at 1316 and/or failures within the eclipse and below the 61.8% Fibo will focus attention back to the downside.To the downside, a drop below 1310 will bring 1302 as a key level ahead of 1298, 1290 while 1280 is a keen target. Below there, 1275 remains the line in the sand to the downside, and a break below it will put the attention back to the towards to 1250, a key confluence area made up of Fibos and prior support and resistance.Gold daily and 4hr chart - Trendline, Ichimoku cloud, stochastics and Fibo analysis. 

AUD/JPY 4-Hour chart   additional important levels Overview Today last price 78.99 Today Daily Change 22

AUD/JPY is taking the bids around 79.00 on early Thursday.Pair continues to find difficulties in crossing four-week-old descending trend-line, at 79.35 now, ahead of monthly Australian employment data.As a result, 50% Fibonacci retracement of February month rise, at 78.65, becomes important for sellers in case job numbers spread disappointment.Should prices refrain from respecting 78.65 support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 78.30, followed by 78.10, could lure bears.Assuming the quote’s extended south-run beneath 78.10, 77.70 and 77.40 could come back on the chart.Meanwhile, an upside break of 79.35 can quickly trigger price up-moves to 79.60 ahead of highlighting February month high near 79.85 and then drawing market attention to 80.00.It should also be noted that a price rally beyond 80.00 gives importance to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 80.45 as resistance.AUD/JPY 4-Hour chart 

In an interview with CNN, the White House Economic Adviser Hassett said that the 'trade deals are 'moving forward'. Hassett also noted that he expect

In an interview with CNN, the White House Economic Adviser Hassett said that the 'trade deals are 'moving forward'. Hassett also noted that he expects 3% US GDP growth this year.

AUD/USD daily chart The AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7130 during early Asian sessions on Thursday. The quote struggles around 50-day simple moving a

AUD/USD daily chartThe AUD/USD pair trades near 0.7130 during early Asian sessions on Thursday.The quote struggles around 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.7135 ahead of the February month employment data from Australia.Should there be a pullback past data release, 0.7100 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of December – January drop at 0.7060 can offer immediate support to the prices.Given the pair continue trading southwards under 0.7060, 0.7030, 0.7000 and 0.6980 can entertain sellers.Alternatively, pair’s successful trading above 0.7135 enables it to confront 100-day SMA level of 0.7160 and 0.7200 upside barriers.However, 200-day SMA and a downward sloping trend-line since early December can restrict further advances around 0.7220/25. AUD/USD 4-Hour chartThe H4 chart widens the 0.7200 resistance to 0.7195 – 0.7205 area in order to validate the moves.38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January 31 – March 08 downturn around 0.7115 offers nearby rest. AUD/USD hourly chart100% Fibonacci expansion of March 08 to 20 moves near 0.7175 can act as an intermediate halt during the pair’s rise beyond 0.7160 towards 0.7200.0.7080 may provide a buffer between 0.7100 and 0.7060.

Staying with the Fed, the fact that some participants have been looking for a slightly hawkish tilt to the dots only to find that the Fed doesn't see

Forex today was centred around what the FOMC outcome might be and then subsequently, trading out of the US dollar on the fact. The DXY was punished on a dovish outcome from the Fed and dropped from above 96.50s and cut out a fresh low below the 28th Feb lows, losing the 96 handle for the first time since then.Staying with the Fed, the fact that some participants have been looking for a slightly hawkish tilt to the dots only to find that the Fed doesn't see a rate hike happening until sometime in 2020, markets unwound dollar positions and as the US 10 year yield dropped sharply to 2.52% from 2.59%, having traded as high as 2.61% pre Fed. At the same time, the Fed’s balance sheet run down will end in Sep and many did not expect such to happen as soon as that - GDP forecasts were also downgraded. Here are some of the key takeaways from the meeting which will likely to continue weighing on the greenback:  The latest median Federal Reserve forecasts 2019 GDP2.1%  vs 2.3% in Dec. 2020 GDP 1.9% vs 2.0% in Dec. 2021 GDP 1.8% vs 1.8% in Dec.From the statementFederal Reserve issues FOMC statement - March 20 - full textOn a 12-month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy remains near 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little change. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes.  In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes. Meanwhile, we also had Brexit shenanigans all day that was topped off by a statement from PM May to the UK nation explaining that she has written to tusk to request an extension to the end of June but not further than that. This will be voted on in Brussels on Friday which will be a massive event for the pound which is currently trapped between headlights and on thin ice - for it only takes one EU member to veto PM May's request  - meaning the UK could end up dropping out of the EU next Friday without a deal.  NZ GDP data was the next thing in early Asia but there were no great shakes there, with the kiwi moving between 30 pips on the line data for Q/Q and a slight moss Y/Y - unlikely to make a cause for concern for the RBNZ  next week, likely to stay with its 'watch and  wait' stance.Currency action:Analysts at Westpac summed up the currency action in the G10s as follows:  "EUR/USD jumped from 1.1355 to 1.1448 in response to the dovish Fed surprise, and then tapered off to 1.1420. USD/JPY fell from 111.50 to a low of 110.54. AUD/USD jumped from 0.7095 to 0.7150 then followed the fading US equity rally to 0.7115. NZD similarly jumped from 0.6845 to 0.6918 – a two-month high – then back to 0.6880. AUD/NZD was net flat over the day, at 1.0340, falling a little after the FOMC. GBP was weakest in the G10, as the EU summit began with a review of Brexit, deciding that they would agree to extend the date of Brexit from 29 March to 30 June only if UK Parliament approves PM May’s plan. GBP/USD fell about -0.6% over the day, including a small bounce on the Fed."Key notes from U.S. session:Wall Street ends mostly lower, despite dovish Fed, financials hurting on lower yieldsFed thinks it will not need to tighten any further in 2019 - Wells FargoKey events ahead:The analysts at Westpac explained that markets now await Australia’s February labour force survey that is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. "In the minutes of the 5 March Board meeting, RBA members “observed that labour market conditions had continued to improve, despite a slowing in the momentum of output growth in the second half of 2018.” The RBA will not drop its upbeat view of the labour market simply on a softer reading today."

According to the Japanese media reports, the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is said to visit the US in April to meet with the US President Donald Trump. Mark

According to the Japanese media reports, the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is said to visit the US in April to meet with the US President Donald Trump. Markets are speculating that trades talks are likely to be the central agenda of the meeting.

The German Finance Ministry is out with its monthly economic assessment report, with the key highlights found below. Tax revenues are down 1.6% y/y b

The German Finance Ministry is out with its monthly economic assessment report, with the key highlights found below. Tax revenues are down 1.6% y/y but up 0.2% in Jan/Feb. German economic growth is likely to remain subdued through H1 of 2019. Brexit and trade disputes are dampening factor.

Overview of the Australian jobs report The Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for releasing monthly jobs report during early Asian markets on Thur

Overview of the Australian jobs reportThe Australian Bureau of Statistics is up for releasing monthly jobs report during early Asian markets on Thursday. The February month employment change and unemployment rate details will be the key to watch in the 00:30 GMT update. Market consensus suggests no change in the 5.0% seasonally adjusted unemployment rate while favoring a reduction in employment change number to 14.0K compared to 39.1K. TD Securities expect overall firm but a soft monthly figure as their analysts say, It’s employment time again and after a run of seasonally strong outcomes (+124k jobs in the four months) we look for a breather in February (mkt +15k but the range is substantial at -5k to +30k). February is strong month in original terms, but seasonal factors can and do account for this reliable increase. We look for no change in jobs, leaving annual employment growth at 2.2%. Combined with a step down in the participation rate to 65.6%, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5% for the third consecutive month. However, Westpac is of view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its optimism surrounding job numbers despite expectations of a weak number this month but markets will take advantage of the reading. They say, Australia’s February labour force survey is due at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. In the minutes of the 5 March Board meeting, RBA members “observed that labour market conditions had continued to improve, despite a slowing in the momentum of output growth in the second half of 2018.” The RBA will not drop its upbeat view of the labour market simply on a softer reading today. But with various other Australian data releases pointing to growth well short of RBA forecasts, markets will seize on any weakness in February employment. This includes what could be seen as statistical noise – Westpac’s forecast of -5k on total jobs is in large part payback from the 39k surge in January. Consensus is +15k, as it often is. Westpac looks for an uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.1%, versus consensus for no change at 5.0%.How could the data affect AUD/USD?While recent data from Australia continue to weigh on the RBA’s previous hawkish bias, the central bank still remains optimistic about the domestic employment scenario. As a result, unless registering extremely negative results, the February month jobs report might not highlight rate cut fears as indicated earlier by the RBA Governor and also by soft GDP figures earlier during the month. The AUD/USD pair currently struggles around 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.7135 with 0.7160 comprising 100-day SMA being next on the radar. Alternatively, pair’s dip under 0.7060, backed by sluggish data, can recall 0.7020, 0.7000 and 0.6980 consecutive supports back on the chart.Key NotesAUD/USD Analysis: bullish ahead of key employment data AUD/USD jumps on dovish Fed and takes out the 55-day ma at 0.7131, for a high of 0.7147About the Employment ChangeThe Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

AUD/NZD flirts with 1.0300 with the 1.0298 being latest low on early Thursday. The pair dropped to a week’s low after New Zealand gross domestic produ

Upbeat New Zealand GDP figures increased downside pressure on the pair ahead of the key Australian jobs report.Sellers my concentrate on a breakdown of 1.0292 support for further declines.AUD/NZD flirts with 1.0300 with the 1.0298 being latest low on early Thursday. The pair dropped to a week’s low after New Zealand gross domestic product (GDP) data. Investors may now focus on Austria’s employment details for fresh impulse. New Zealand’s fourth-quarter GDP data trimmed more than 60 pips of the AUD/NZD pair as it rose 0.6% (QoQ) over 0.3% prior. Buyers gave little importance to the yearly GDP figure that lagged behind 2.5% market consensus and 2.6% previous to 2.3%. Trader’s immediate focus may now turn towards monthly employment figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February month isn’t likely to change from 5.0% but the employment change may have softened by 14.0K from 39.1K prior. In addition to data dossier, developments surrounding the US-China trade deal could also weigh on the pair as China is Australia’s largest consumer. Recently, the US lawmakers including treasury secretary and trade representative have conveyed their plans to visit Beijing over the next week in order to give final shape to the trade negotiations before the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet for the decision. It was earlier speculated that China is rolling back trade proposals which didn’t go well with the commodities and antipodeans.AUD/NZD Technical AnalysisThe quote is yet to break March 13 low of 1.0292 in order to highlight September 2016 bottom around 1.0230 and mid-April 2015 supports near 1.0220. Alternatively, 1.0370 and 1.0400 are likely nearby resistances that buyers can aim for till they are above 1.0300 round-figure.

DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). DXY dropped to the 96.10 and 9

DXY daily chartThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).DXY dropped to the 96.10 and 95.82 levels as the FOMC turned out to be more dovish than expected.DXY 4-hour chartDXY is trading below its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the medium-term.The pullback up can find initial resistance at 96.15 and 96.27 level.Supports to the downside are at 96.82 and 96.60 level. Additional key levels 
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