Amaran risiko: CFD ialah instrumen yang kompleks dan terdapat risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang dengan cepat disebabkan oleh leveraj. 90% daripada akaun pelabur runcit kerugian wang apabila berdagang CFD dengan penyedia ini. Anda perlu mempertimbangkan sama ada anda memahami cara CFD berfungsi dan sama ada anda boleh menanggung risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang anda.
Amaran risiko: CFD ialah instrumen yang kompleks dan terdapat risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang dengan cepat disebabkan oleh leveraj. 90% daripada akaun pelabur runcit kerugian wang apabila berdagang CFD dengan penyedia ini. Anda perlu mempertimbangkan sama ada anda memahami cara CFD berfungsi dan sama ada anda boleh menanggung risiko yang tinggi untuk kerugian wang anda.
Khamis, Jun 20, 2019

West Texas Intermediate oil rallied on Thursday on an increasingly concerning situation over the tensions between Iran and the U.S. as the attacks in

WTI trades 5.10% higher and climbed through the 20-D EMA and the 50-D EMA.Tensions between Iran and the U.S. as the attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated.West Texas Intermediate oil rallied on Thursday on an increasingly concerning situation over the tensions between Iran and the U.S. as the attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have escalated to what now appears to be Iran attacking US military drones in the area. It has been reported that Iran shot down the U.S. drone and U.S. President Donald Trump said in a tweet that "Iran made a very big mistake!" However, he was also claimed to have said that the Iran incident was ‘probably a mistake’ by an individual person and that he doesn’t feel like his administration is ‘pushing him towards conflict’. Either way, the price of oil is telling us what the markets feel about the situation and a barrel of oil is 5% more expensive on the day.  Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday that U.S. crude supplies dropped by 3.1 million barrels following two straight weeks of gains. Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies are scheduled to hold meetings on July 1-2 were extensions of cuts are expected which is also supporting the bid.  WTI levels WTI climbed through the 20-D Experiential Moving Average, (EMA), and the 50-D EMA, now en route for the 200-D EMA. A break there will expose the 30th May highs of $59.67 and of course the $60 psychological level. However, if the price can't sustain a bid, bears wi target back down to the 200 weekly EMA and the 61.8% Fibo. A full breakdown opens prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44. 

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, emerging markets are currently at a crossroads with high geopolitical uncertainty and markets betting on a do

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, emerging markets are currently at a crossroads with high geopolitical uncertainty and markets betting on a dovish move from the Federal Reserve. They favour a defensive stance towards emerging market.Key Quotes: “So far, 2019 has been a bumpy ride for emerging markets. The trade war along with the Fed's U-turn have been clear drivers of volatility in emerging markets. Looking into the second half of 2019, the question is whether these two factors can lead emerging markets towards sunnier skies. We remain sceptical. The market has currently priced in just below four Fed cuts over the next 12 months, leaving little room to positively surprise the market, which in turn could spur further optimism in emerging markets.” “We still see dark clouds on the geopolitical front and for China's growth momentum. Overall, we find more conditions supporting a defensive view towards emerging markets.” “Our model indicates that US financial conditions will tighten both in the short run and over the next 9-12 months, in line with previous Fed easing cycles and periods of slowing growth. This normally spells trouble for EM FX. This trouble can be exacerbated if the Fed, in fact, does not exercise its put option by delivering several cuts in a timely manner. In that case, financial conditions could tighten rapidly and act a toxic driver for EM FX, much like the situation in 2018.”
 

In its Currency Research report, analysts at BNZ, look at the recent trend in volatility in the currency market. They see that less speculative activi

In its Currency Research report, analysts at BNZ, look at the recent trend in volatility in the currency market.  They see that less speculative activity, lower volatility in growth and inflation, and the risk of currency positions being ruined by an errant tweet might explain lower volatility.Key Quotes: “NZD (and other) currency volatility has been on a falling trend over the past several years. The low volatility environment is not unprecedented. Indeed, such low volatility, if not lower, was a feature of the currency market during 1990-1997." “A question is why is currency volatility so low at present? Or maybe the right question is, is currency volatility back down to normal and why was currency volatility so high from 1998 through to 2017?" "We don’t have the answers but can make some educated guesses. One is that speculative activity in currency markets has reduced, perhaps because of increased regulations on trading banks that have reduced such activity, and reduced hedge fund activity as their access to leverage through investment banks has been curtailed." "Low currency volatility might also reflect the current macroeconomic environment – low volatility in growth and inflation. In such a world, particularly if the global economic and policy cycle is well synchronised across countries, a lack of trading ideas prevails." “At this juncture the honest thing to say is that we just don’t know how currency volatility will pan out over the years to come. On the “low volatility begets low volatility” theory, one could easily see a return back to the 1990s environment. The implication for corporates is that a lower volatility environment doesn’t preclude steady moves up or down in the currency, but trading opportunities to take advantage of currency movements become fewer and far between.”
 

Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab see as main concerns for equities the ongoing trade war uncertai

Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab see as main concerns for equities the ongoing trade war uncertainty and the possibility that the market has gotten ahead of the Federal Reserve. Key Quotes: “New market highs are always worth cheering, but keep in mind the limited movement overall in U.S. stocks over the course of the past 18 months. If a recession is coming, we will likely look back at this period as part of a topping process for stocks (tops generally are processes over time; bottoms are typically more V-shaped moments in time).” “Aside from ongoing trade war uncertainty, our other concern is the possibility that the market has gotten ahead of the Fed. With fed funds future now discounting more than 100 basis points of easing by the end of next year, equities may be at risk if the economy’s deterioration supports that much easing; but also at risk if the Fed under-delivers. If the economy hangs in there and rate cuts are simply insurance cuts, the additional accommodation could be a sufficient offset to the negative effects of the trade war.”
 

After losing more than 100 pips on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair continued to push higher today and slumped to its lowest level since late February at 1

Barrel of West Texas Intermediate rises more than 5% on Thursday.US Dollar Index extends FOMC-inspired slide, erases all of last week's gains.Coming up: Retail sales data from Canada and Markit Manufacturing & Services PMI from the U.S.After losing more than 100 pips on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair continued to push higher today and slumped to its lowest level since late February at 1.3149. The pair, however, staged a modest recovery supported by profit-taking in the American session and was last seen moving sideways near the 1.32 handle, losing 0.6% on a daily basis. The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the greenback following the FOMC's dovish shift in its policy statement, which heightened expectations of a rate cut as early as July, forced the pair to drop sharply in the second half of the week. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 61.5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in July and a 38.5% probability of a 50 bps rate cut, leaving the odds of the Fed keeping the rates unchanged at next months meeting at 0%. The US Dollar Index, which rose to 97.77 on Tuesday, lost more than 1% in the last 24 hours and was last seen at 96.66. On the other hand, revived hopes of the U.S. and China taking steps to reach a deal and to end the trade conflict by officially announcing a meeting with President Trump and President Xi at the G20 summit later this month provided a strong boost to crude oil prices and caused the commodity-sensitive loonie to gather further strength against its major peers. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at its highest level of June at$57.18, adding 5.7% on the day. On Friday, retail sales from Canada and Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. However, the pair is unlikely to make a deep correction of this recent fall with investors remaining convinced of a Fed rate cut in July. Technical levels to watch for  

Analysts at Danske Bank, forecast that USD/TRY will trade at 5.90 in 3M, 6.10 in 6M and at 6.30 in 12M. Downside risks to their forecasts are geopolit

Analysts at Danske Bank, forecast that USD/TRY will trade at 5.90 in 3M, 6.10 in 6M and at 6.30 in 12M. Downside risks to their forecasts are geopolitical and macro-related. Key Quotes: “We expect 2019 GDP to contract 2.0% y/y (previously we expected 1.1% y/y growth) and 2020 GDP to expand 1.7% y/y, versus our previous expectation of 2.1%.” “Turkey’s central bank (TCMB) kept the one-week repo rate at 24% in June 2019. After falling fairly strongly, CPI inflation has stabilised slightly under 20%, due partly to the pick-up in energy prices. Global monetary easing has opened the door for a 100bp cut in July 2019, we believe.” “The TRY is stabilising on a global turn in monetary easing, while the lower oil price could wipe away the extra burden on Turkey’s external position. However, domestic risk has not disappeared. Large FX debt redemptions by the Turkish private sector and expected rate cuts are set to weigh on the TRY in 2019 and 2020.” “If the confrontation with the US escalates, e.g. on the S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system deliveries by Russia. The TCMB’s excessive monetary easing, driven by political pressure and worsening macro factors, also presents downside risks to our TRY forecasts. Fed monetary dovishness is a positive factor for TRY’s path.”

The USD/MXN pair broke yesterday a trading range between 19.20 and 19.10 and fell to 19.00. Today continued to decline and bottomed at 18.88 the lowes

Mexican peso benefits from dovish FOMC meeting and also by higher crude oil prices. Greenback remains under pressure on lower US yields and higher equity prices.The USD/MXN pair broke yesterday a trading range between 19.20 and 19.10 and fell to 19.00. Today continued to decline and bottomed at 18.88 the lowest since May 1. From the lows bounced modestly to the upside and as of writing was trading at 18.96, after being unable to rise back above 19.00.  From yesterday’s top, USD/MXN lost 1.40% driven by the decline of the US Dollar across the board and amid an improvement in risk appetite. The FOMC statement triggered speculations about rate cuts over the next meetings from the Federal Reserve and pushed the US Dollar sharply lower.  The suggestion that the Fed could lower interest rate could influence on Banxico’s Governing Board. “The monetary policy stance relative to that of the US”  is followed closely by the Board. The others are the exchange rate pass-through and the conditions of slack in the Mexican economy. Banxico will have the opportunity to change its bias next week, at its policy meeting. Currently it has a hawkish bias. Is a more neutral statement coming, as one member of the Board keeps asking?  Levels to watch  The area around 18.90 capped the decline. A consolidation below could open the doors for a test of the 2019 low seen at 18.74. The current bias favors the downside but the mentioned barrier is a strong one, so USD/MXN could start trading in a new (lower) range between 18.90 and 19.00 or 19.10.  To the upside, now 19.00 and 19.10 are the immediate resistance levels. As long as it holds below 19.25/19.30 (horizontal level and 20-day moving average) the chart will be biased to the downside. 

GBP/USD has been oscillating around the 1.27 handle in Thursday's New York session so far, topping out at 1.2727. The pair was as low as 1.2628 in ear

GBP/USD oscillates around the 1.27 handle in New York session.Bank of England disappoints the bulls; Sterling scales back gains from Federal Reserve interest rate decision.GBP/USD has been oscillating around the 1.27 handle in Thursday's New York session so far, topping out at 1.2727. The pair was as low as 1.2628 in early Asia yesterday, but the dollar was beaten up on the back of the dovish outcome from the Federal Open Marke Committee overnight.  With the Federal Reserve decision out of the way, markets needed to get set for the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday. The outcome was less hawkish than expected which eventually weighed on Sterling. The Monetary Policy Committee, (MPC), left rates unchanged at 0.75% and there were no dissenters, even though there had been some speculation of a split vote. GBP/USD dropped from the highs to below 1.27 the figure on the outcome.  The statement noted that the downside risks to growth have increased due to trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties. The MPC also expects inflation to fall below the 2%-target later this year. However,  the MPC still judged that a tightening of monetary policy at a gradual pace and to a limited extent would be appropriate, although there were no signals that a hike is n the horizon in 2019 or 2020. Elsewhere, markets glanced across to the final ballot of the Conservative Party leadership race that whittled the contenders down to just two candidates for the top spot and Number 10 Downing Street. Members of the Conservative Party will now be able to vote beginning on 22 June, where the final two candidates will be put to a postal vote of the 160,000 Tory party members. The winner will be announced in the week of 22 July. GBP/USD hardly reacted though: And the last two remaining candidates left in the Conservative leadership race are ... For the rest of the week, we have BoE Carney speaking later today and the BoE's Quarterly Bulletin tomorrow along with US Markit manufacturing/services and Existing Homes Sales data. Fed's Brainard will be speaking as well tomorrow.  GBP/USD levels From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD has recovered from recent 1.2532 lows and analysts at Commerzbank note that the new low has been accompanied by a large divergence of the daily Relative Strength Index, (RSI), and the market has eroded the accelerated downtrend: "Rallies will need to regain the more important 1.2763/72 resistance (the 7th June high and February low) in order to generate some upside interest. This will target the 200-day moving average at 1.2931. Below 1.2532 would trigger further losses to the 1.2444 December 2018 low."

EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DSMA). However, the single currency has been rebounding sharply and seems

EUR/USD is trading just below the 1.1300 figure.The level to beat for bulls is 1.1320 and 1.1347. EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DSMA). However, the single currency has been rebounding sharply and seems to be poised to appreciate further as long as the 1.1200 support holds.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum. Bulls will be looking to trade beyond 1.1320 resistance to reach 1.1347 resistance according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. 
EUR/USD 30-minute chart EUR/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. The market is currently consolidating its gains below 1.1300.  Support is at 1.1260 and 1.1230 according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  

The Osaka summit is intended to pull US-China ties away from brinkmanship that has dragged relations to the lowest point in decades and the South Chin

The Osaka summit is intended to pull US-China ties away from brinkmanship that has dragged relations to the lowest point in decades and the South China Morning Post (SCMP) is reporting that China and U.S. trade teams may meet in Osaka as early as next Tuesday. The SCMP report that top negotiators are set to speak on the phone ahead of the trip – SCMP

Tory MPs have been voting again on Thursday in a fifth round of the leadership contest to select the final two candidates. The contenders were as foll

The fifth and final ballot results of the race for Conservative leadership sees Michael Gove eliminated.The fifth ballot results see Boris Johnson leading and Jeremy Hunt contesting.GBP/USD is steady in the outcome, a touch over 1.27 the figure.Tory MPs have been voting again on Thursday in a fifth round of the leadership contest to select the final two candidates. The contenders were as follows: Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove - (Sajid Javid was knocked out in a fourth ballot earlier in the day).(Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary and Mayor of London, has been topping all of the ballots so far). Thursday's fifth-round results: Boris Johnson: 160 Jeremy Hunt: 77 Michael Gove: 75 (out) FX implications: Candidates advancing through the race who are supporting a hard Brexit will weigh on the value of sterling as it will be suggesting that markets may have to price in a higher probability of a no-deal Brexit.  GBP/USD made a high of 1.2727 earlier in the session and moved to a touch above the figure to meet the New York session highs at 1.2709 ahead of the results.  GBP/USD technical analysis: Overbought conditions prompt some profit-taking, corrects to 23.6% Fibo. level And the race continues... Members of the Conservative Party will now be able to vote on the final two. Finally, beginning on 22 June, the final two candidates will be put to a postal vote of the 160,000 Tory party members. The winner will be announced in the week of 22 July.

GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages. The market is rebounding from the 1.2500 handle. GBP/USD 4-hour chart Cable

GBP/USD is on the rise as USD weakens across the board.The level to beat for bulls is 1.2700 resistance. GBP/USD daily chart GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages. The market is rebounding from the 1.2500 handle.
GBP/USD 4-hour chart Cable rose sharply this Thursday and found tough resistance near 1.2700 figure. A daily close above that level would be encouraging for bulls to have a run towards 1.2759 (pivot point R2 and previous week high). GBP/USD 30-minute chart GBP/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish bias in the short term. The 1.2650 and 1.2627 levels are seen as strong support according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.  
Additional key levels  

Colombia Trade Balance rose from previous $-762.4M to $-460.1M in April

The Leading Economic Index came in flat in May, after rising during the previous two months. As the expansion is nearing the longest in the post-WW II

The Leading Economic Index came in flat in May, after rising during the previous two months. As the expansion is nearing the longest in the post-WW II era, leading indicators continue to suggest growth will continue but moderate, explained analysts at Wells Fargo. Key Quotes: “The Leading Index has been more or less flat since September, and only five of the ten components made positive contributions to the index in May. Consumer expectations were a bright spot in this report, which contributed the most to the headline and saw its largest contribution since October. This is a notable signal of the strength of the consumer, despite the moderation in May employment and decline in the stock market.” “Stock prices subtracted the most, shaving 0.07 percentage points from the headline as markets struggled through May. The stock rebound to date in June suggests this component should rebound next month.” “Trade likely remains the largest risk to this lengthy expansion.”

The Swiss franc is rising sharply across the board strengthened after the FOMC meeting. The Fed signaled it could cut rates over the next meetings lea

Swiss franc among biggest gainers from dovish FOMC meeting. USD/CHF suffers the worst decline in more than a yearThe Swiss franc is rising sharply across the board strengthened after the FOMC meeting. The Fed signaled it could cut rates over the next meetings leading to even lower yields that together with rising tensions in the Middle East favored the for the Swiss franc.  On the other side, the greenback remains under pressure as markets price in a rate cut from the Fed after Wednesday meeting. In Europe, also a rate cut from the European Central Bank is also expected. “We expect a 10bp cut in all of the ECB’s main policy rates in September of this year, and a second 10bp reduction in Q1 of next year. This would take the ECB’s deposit rate down to a low of -0.6% and the refi rate into negative territory for the first time”, explained ABN AMRO analysts.  All factor appears to be supporting the downside in USD/CHF. So far today it lost almost 150 pips and 220 pips over the last two days. The move continued even as the US Dollar experimented a modest correction against its other rivals.  Recently broke below 0.9800 and fell to 0.9791, a level last seen back in early January.     

EUR/GBP is in a bull leg above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). The market attempted to break above Wednesday high but is currently under press

EUR/GBP dropped to daily lows near 0.8880 support.Can the bulls lift the market to 0.8910 resistance? 
EUR/GBP daily chart EUR/GBP is in a bull leg above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). The market attempted to break above Wednesday high but is currently under pressure below 0.8900 figure. EUR/GBP 4-hour chart The trend is slowing down as the market is trading below the 50 SMA and is challenging the 100 SMA.  EUR/GBP 30-minute chart EUR/GBP is trading below its 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting potential bearish momentum. EUR/GBP found strong support near 0.8870/80 which is a cluster of technical levels according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. If the bears break this support the next level in line is seen at 0.8843 ( daily an weekly pivot point cluster). On the flip side, if the market finds some footing above 0.8880 EUR/GBP could rebound to 0.8910 resistance (technical levels cluster). Further up, lies 0.8935 resistance (previous week high and Wednesday high).
Additional key levels  

Commenting on Iran shooting down a United States military drone on Thursday, President Donald Trump said that Iran made a big mistake and added that t

Commenting on Iran shooting down a United States military drone on Thursday, President Donald Trump said that Iran made a big mistake and added that they have documented that the drone was in the international space and didn't violate Iran's air space. When asked about the possible response, "you'll find out," Trump told reporters. Stock markets don't seem to be liking Trump's comments with three major equity indexes erasing a large portion of their daily gains in the last ten minutes. 

After dropping to its lowest level since early January at 107.47, the USD/JPY pair retraced a small portion of its daily fall but came under renewed b

US 10-year T-bond yield extends losses, erases more than 2% on Thursday. US Dollar Index rebounds from lows, stays below 98 mark.S&P 500 retreats after reaching a fresh record high at the opening.After dropping to its lowest level since early January at 107.47, the USD/JPY pair retraced a small portion of its daily fall but came under renewed bearish pressure in the American session. As of writing, the pair was down 0.62% on a daily basis at 107.42. The broad-based USD weakness following the FOMC's dovish policy statement and Chairman Powell's cautious remarks yesterday weighed on the pair on Thursday. Although the pair tried to gain traction after Wall Street opened the day in the positive territory and the S&P 500 reached a fresh record high, heightened expectations of the Fed announcing a rate cut as early as July dragged the US Treasury bond yields and didn't allow the positively-correlated pair to stage a meaningful recovery. At the moment, the 10-year reference is losing nearly 2% on the day and looking to close below 2% mark for the first time since November of 2016. Moreover, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East seems to be weighing on the market sentiment. When asked about whether the U.S. would strike Iran amid the ongoing crisis, "you'll soon find out," U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, which lost more than 1% since yesterday, was last seen at 96.63, losing 0.6% on the day and making it easy for the pair to continue to push lower.   In the early trading hours of the Asian session, Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and Consumer Price Index data from Japan will be looked upon for fresh impetus.Technical levels to watch for 

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is recovering strongly as it rebounded from above the 50.00 mark. The market stays below its main daily simple moving av

Crude oil bulls are challenging $57.00 a barrel.WTI is having a strong recovery and seems poised to reach 58.00 and 59.75 to the upside. Oil daily chart WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is recovering strongly as it rebounded from above the 50.00 mark. The market stays below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). 
Oil 4-hour chart The oil market is rising sharply above the 54.00 figure and the 50 and 100 SMAs. WTI is challenging the 57.00 figure and is approaching the 200 SMA at 57.76. A break beyond 57.00 can lead to a continuation of the up move towards 58.00 figure and 59.75 swing high. Immediate support is seen at 56.00 and 55.00 figure. Additional key levels  

The rally of the AUD/USD pair that started after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and pushed it back above 0.6900, run into resistance at 0.6935. As of w

US Dollar off lows but still holds to most of the post-Fed losses. Australian Dollar losses strength as equity prices pull back from highs. The rally of the AUD/USD pair that started after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and pushed it back above 0.6900, run into resistance at 0.6935. As of writing, trades at 0.6915, 40 pips above yesterday’s close and still holding a bullish tone.  From a technical perspective, the area around 0.6935 is a strong barrier that if broken could lead to a test of the next critical level seen at 0.6950. On the flip side, the 0.6900 area has become a key support.  The move higher in AUD/USD was boosted by the dovish Fed meeting. The greenback accelerated the decline today as markets price in more rate cuts from the Fed. Data released today in the US came in mixed with a decline in jobless claims and also a larger-than-expected slide in the Philly Fed. The numbers were ignored by market participants that continue to focus on the implication of yesterday’s FOMC statement. In Australia, the central bank meets on July 2 and a rate cut is mostly discounted.  The rally in global stocks also added support to the pair, but over the last three hours it lost momentum and Wall Street indexes move off highs, favoring the correction in AUD/USD.  More levels   

"Consumer confidence falls from -6.5 to -7.2. Even though the household income situation is moving in the right direction, growth concerns seem to be

"Consumer confidence falls from -6.5 to -7.2. Even though the household income situation is moving in the right direction, growth concerns seem to be the cause of increased pessimism," notes Bert Colijn, ING Eurozone Senior Economist. "What’s not to like for consumers? They saw wage growth improve again in Q1 as labour shortages have finally taken wage growth back to pre-crisis levels. On top of that, unemployment has been coming down more rapidly than expected and is at the lowest level in more than a decade. The bottom line remains quite a positive story for the consumer, but worries about the growth environment are not helping future expectations right now." "The decline in consumer confidence casts some doubt on the dichotomy between industry and services. The service sector delivers more directly to the consumer and therefore fares well in an environment of strong consumer spending. More pessimistic consumers could result in slower spending, which would in turn impact the performance of the service sector. That would spell problems for the Eurozone growth outlook in the rest of the year, which is already moderate at best."

With major central banks adopting a more cautious tone with regards to the economic outlook and hinting at rate cuts this week, gold became an investo

Dovish shift in major central banks' policy outlook boosts demand for gold.US Dollar Index drops to fresh 2-week lows on Thursday.Stock market rally keeps precious metal's gains limited for now.With major central banks adopting a more cautious tone with regards to the economic outlook and hinting at rate cuts this week, gold became an investor favourite and the troy ounce of the precious metal rose more than $50 since the start of the week to touch its highest level since September 2013 at $1393.27. Following that impressive rally, the XAU/USD pair has gone into a consolidation phase and was last seen trading near $1383, still adding more than $20 on a daily basis. Earlier this week, European Central Bank President Draghi opened the door for rate cuts while speaking at the bank's event in Portugal. Yesterday, the FOMC dropped the term "patient" from its policy statement with regards to future policy adjustments and gave a reason for markets to believe that a rate cut will happen as early as July. The greenback came under heavy selling pressure and dragged the US Dollar Index to its lowest level in two weeks. During the Asian session on Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that it was possible for them to keep the rates at current lows beyond spring of 2020. Finally, the Bank of England today in its policy statement acknowledged that downside risks to growth had increased since the last meeting in May and revised its second-quarter growth expectation down to 0% from 0.2%.  Meanwhile, stock markets capitalized on hopes of central banks injecting additional stimulus into the economy and the S&P 500 Index hit an all-time high, grabbing investors' attention and keeping gold's gains limited for the time being. At the moment, all three major indexes of Wall Street are rising around 1% on a daily basis. Technical levels to watch for 

The US Dollar is weakening across the board on the back of dovish comments from the Fed. AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD is trading in a bear trend below

AUD/USD is recovering after seeing intense selling in the last weeks.The level to beat for bulls is at 0.6930 resistance according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.The US Dollar is weakening across the board on the back of dovish comments from the Fed.  AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is rebounding sharply above the 0.6900 figure. AUD/USD 4-hour chart The Aussie made a sharp recovery as it now challenging the 100 and 200 SMAs near 0.6939 resistance which is a cluster of technical levels according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.
AUD/USD 30-minute chart AUD/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near term. A sustained break above 0.6930 can send the Aussie to 0.6960, the next main resistance according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Support is at 0.6915 and 0.6900 figure. Additional key levels  

The pair has now dropped to the 38.2% Fibo. level of the 0.9210-1.0238 (Feb. 2018 to April 2019) appreciating move, which if broken will set the stage

The USD/CHF pair struggled to find any buyers and continued losing ground through the early North-American session, hitting fresh five-month lows in the last hour.The pair's inability to find acceptance above 200-day SMA reaffirmed the recent break below a medium-term ascending trend-line - extending from Feb. 2018 swing lows.The pair has now dropped to the 38.2% Fibo. level of the 0.9210-1.0238 (Feb. 2018 to April 2019) appreciating move, which if broken will set the stage for an extension of the ongoing downfall from over 27-month tops set on April 26. Below the mentioned support, the pair seems more likely to easily break through the 0.9800 round figure mark and aim towards testing yearly lows support near the 0.9715-10 region – coinciding with 50% Fibo. level. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have moved on the verge of falling into oversold territory and are already pointing to extreme oversold conditions on hourly charts, warranting some near-term consolidation.USD/CHF daily chart 

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 115B, above forecasts (107B) in June 14

European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence below expectations (-6.5) in June: Actual (-7.2)

As hinted by the strong upsurge witnessed in the S&P 500 Futures, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day sharply higher and the broad S&P 50

Heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts boost stock markets on Thursday.Energy sector outperforms rivals boosted by rallying oil prices.All 11 major S&P 500 sectors start the day in the positive territory.As hinted by the strong upsurge witnessed in the S&P 500 Futures, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day sharply higher and the broad S&P 500 reached a fresh record high. The FOMC's dovish shift in its policy statement yesterday revived hopes of the bank cutting interest rate as soon as July and provided a boost to global stock markets. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.9% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were adding 0.95% and 1.3%, respectively.  Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, which are all in the positive territory in the early trade, the Energy Index is rising nearly 2% to lead the rally on the back of a 4% increase in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the rate-sensitive Financial Index is only adding 0.05% on the day limited by falling Treasury bond yields. Reviewing the FOMC event, “Overall, our econ team expects conditions to evolve sufficiently to warrant a cut in July, and view a 25bps move as more likely than 50bps, and they continue to anticipate a total of three rate cuts this year,” said Deutsche Bank analysts.  

According to Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Markets, the Bank of England (BoE) stroke a more dovish tone at the June meeting, as growth has softened,

According to Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Markets, the Bank of England (BoE) stroke a more dovish tone at the June meeting, as growth has softened, and the perceived risk of a no-deal has increased.Key Quotes“In line with both our view and consensus, the Bank of England (BoE) kept both the Bank Rate and the bond purchase programme unchanged. Although there was some speculation before the meeting whether MPC members Michael Saunders (most likely) or Andy Haldane could dissent due to recent high pay growth numbers, the decision was unanimous (9-0) to keep the policy rate on hold at 0.75%.”“The overall message was, in our opinion, clearly to the dovish side.” “Adding to the dovish message, the MPC noted that the global risk sentiment had weakened and the perceived risk of a no-deal had increased, as reflected by the weak sterling.” “We, however, find it difficult to argue for any rate hikes anytime soon as growth is set to slow in Q2, inflation has downside risks (see model below), G10 central banks have shifted in a dovish direction and the fear of a no-deal Brexit is very much alive and kicking.” “At the other side of the coin, we also do not find a rate cut likely (our AI model does not as well, see below). Basically, we think the BoE’s hands are tied due to Brexit and with inflation currently at target, a cut does not seem warranted in the coming months. We would only expect a cut in the case of a no-deal event.”  

Looking at a slightly bigger picture, the pair has been trending lower along a short-term descending trend-channel from yearly tops - set on April 24,

The USD/JPY pair finally broke down of its recent consolidative trading range, held over the past one week or so and tumbled to its lowest level since the early-Jan. flash crash. Bulls, however, showed some resilience near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 104.69-112.40 up-move, which should now act as a key trigger point for bearish traders.Looking at a slightly bigger picture, the pair has been trending lower along a short-term descending trend-channel from yearly tops - set on April 24, clearly indicating a well-established near-term bearish trend and supporting prospects for further declines. However, oversold conditions seemed to be the only factor holding investors from placing any fresh bearish bets and might now lead to near-term consolidation or a modest rebound though might still be seen as a selling opportunity near the 108.00 handle. A convincing break through the mentioned support will reinforce the bearish bias and turn the pair vulnerable to weaken farther below the 107.00 handle and aim towards challenging the trend-channel support, currently near the 106.70 region. Having said that, a sustained recovery beyond the 108.50-70 supply zone - marking 50% Fibo. level and also nearing the descending trend-channel hurdle, might negate the bearish outlook and prompt some aggressive short-covering move in the near-term.USD/JPY daily chart 

Rabobank analysts point out that as per expected lines, the Bank of England MPC kept rates unchanged at 0.75% and there were no dissenters, even thoug

Rabobank analysts point out that as per expected lines, the Bank of England MPC kept rates unchanged at 0.75% and there were no dissenters, even though there had been some speculation of a split vote.Key Quotes“The statement notes that the downside risks to growth have increased due to trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties. The MPC also expects inflation to fall below the 2%-target later this year.” “The forward guidance was left untouched nonetheless. The MPC still judges that a tightening of monetary policy at a gradual pace and to a limited extent would be appropriate.” “This optimism is grounded on a model-based view of the world, which in turn is centred on the assumption of a smooth transition towards new trading relationships. The market is not willing to take this for granted – rightly so.” “Despite several recent hawkish speeches, there was no signal that the MPC actually wants to hike this year. We forecast no rate hikes for this year and next.”

USD/CAD broke below 1.3200 figure and its main daily simple moving average (DSMA). The overall picture is turning negative for the commodity-linked cu

USD/CAD is trading at levels not seen since March.The next supports to the downside are seen near 1.3110 and 1.3068.USD/CAD daily chart USD/CAD broke below 1.3200 figure and its main daily simple moving average (DSMA). The overall picture is turning negative for the commodity-linked currency pair.
USD/CAD 4-hour chart USD/CAD is under bearish pressure below 1.3180 and its main SMAs. The market reached levels not seen since March of this year. 
USD/CAD 30-minute chart The 50 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA which is seen as a bearish sign. The path of least resistance is to the downside. The next support cab be seen at 1.3110 (near weekly Pivot Point S3) and 1.3068 ( February low). Additional key levels  

According to Reuters, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) in a recently published report said that it saw the next two weeks as "absolutely critical"

According to Reuters, Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) in a recently published report said that it saw the next two weeks as "absolutely critical" in determining the timing of the Fed's first rate cut.  "If there are another weak U.S. Payroll report, disappointing ISM data and a "bad" G20 summit outcome, the Fed would begin cutting interest rates in July," BAML noted. "If U.S. data are mixed and markets are "content," the Fed would begin lowering U.S. rates in September." BAML analysts still expect the Fed to cut rates by a total of 75 basis points by early 2020. The US Dollar Index ignored these headlines and was last down 0.55% on a daily basis at 96.65.

The downside, however, remained cushioned, at least for the time being, and the pair now seemed to show some resilience near 23.6% Fibo. level of the

The GBP/USD pair stalled this week's strong recovery move from multi-month lows and quickly retreated around 40-50 pips from intraday tops - around the 1.2725 region.Slightly overbought conditions on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor prompting some profit-taking after the recent up-move of around 120-pips over the past three days.The downside, however, remained cushioned, at least for the time being, and the pair now seemed to show some resilience near 23.6% Fibo. level of the 1.2506-1.2727 latest upsurge. This is followed by the 1.2645 confluence region - comprising of 200-hour SMA and 38.2% Fibo. level, which should now act as an important pivotal point for short-term traders. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are yet to catch up with the ongoing recovery momentum and might turn out to be one of the key factors holding investors back from placing any aggressive bets. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for follow-through move beyond the 1.2750-60 supply zone before positioning for any further appreciating move. Failure to clear the mentioned barrier and a subsequent break below the 1.2645 confluence support would suggest that the corrective bounce might have already run out of the steam and the pair seems all set to resume its prior well-established bearish trend.GBP/USD 1-hourly chart 

Sacha Tihanyi, deputy head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, points out that the BCB has revised lower its inflation outlook, but continu

Sacha Tihanyi, deputy head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, points out that the BCB has revised lower its inflation outlook, but continues to point to the economic reform process as crucial, implying the constraint it poses for monetary policy action.Key Quotes“Policy makers did drop elements of the statement that emphasized monetary policy stability, and while not signalling an imminent rate cut, it does open up future policy flexibility to some degree, contingent on continued economic reform in Brazil.” “We remain of the view that the BCB sits on hold for 2019, at least until pension reform is closer to completion, but we push out our call for future tightening by 6 months to Q3 of 2020. The bias of near-term risk to our view remains for additional easing in 2019.”

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well on the defensive albeit managing to rebound from daily lows in the 96.60/55 band. U

DXY reverses part of the pullback, tests 96.70.USD weaker in the wake of FOMC meeting.Philly Fed index came in well below estimates.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well on the defensive albeit managing to rebound from daily lows in the 96.60/55 band.USD Dollar Index supported at the 200-day SMAThe index appears to have met dip-buyers in the vicinity of 96.50, an important area of contention where converge the critical 200-day SMA and the multi-month support line. The buck is bouncing off lows despite the key Philly Fed manufacturing gauge came in at 0.3 for the current moth, well below estimates and lower than May’s 16.6. further data saw Initial Claims at 216K WoW, bettering consensus and taking the 4-Week Average to 218.75K from 217.75K. Additional data noted the Current Account deficit shrunk to $130.0 billion during the January-March period, albeit coming in below forecasts. Despite rate cuts are now a palpable option - with the occurrence of such a move in July gaining some momentum – the case for a weaker greenback in the near-to-medium term looks less clear against the backdrop of the generalized twist to a looser stance from the Fed’s peers in the G-10 space and the so far outperformance of the US fundamentals vs. the majority of developed economies.What to look for around USDThe Federal Reserve is not ‘patient’ anymore, and rate cuts have already emerged on the horizon (likely to be delivered at the September and/or December meeting), while an ‘insurance cut’ could come as early as July. Compared with other central banks, the Fed has more room to manoeuvre in case it goes ‘full accommodative’ in the next months (due to the hiking cycle that started in 2015). If we add that the US economy is healthier than its overseas peers, the greenback’s status of ‘global reserve currency’ and its safe haven appeal, further weakness in the buck is far from a done deal.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.57% at 96.66 and a breach of 96.46 (low Jun.7) would open the door for 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28). On the other hand, the next up barrier emerges at 97.80 (monthly high Jun.3) seconded by 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 27).

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte crossed the wires in the last minutes saying that the letter that they have sent to the European Commission is a

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte crossed the wires in the last minutes saying that the letter that they have sent to the European Commission is a political message explaining that the EU has to change its fiscal rules to prioritize growth. "The tax competition within the EU should be fair," Conte added. "Countries that do not invest their surplus do not help us." The EUR/USD didn't pay any attention to Conte's remarks and continues to consolidate its daily gains near the 1.13 mark.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $504.5B in June 14 from previous $502.7B

Russia Unemployment Rate registered at 4.5%, below expectations (4.6%) in May

Belgium Consumer Confidence Index dipped from previous -5 to -7 in June

The NZD/USD pair took advantage of the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the dollar following the FOMC's dovish shift yesterday and advanced to

US Dollar Index retraces small portion of daily fall in the early American session.New Zealand GDP expands by 0.6% in the first quarter as expected.Weekly jobless claims in the U.S. comes in slightly better than the market estimate.The NZD/USD pair took advantage of the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the dollar following the FOMC's dovish shift yesterday and advanced to its highest level in 9 days at 0.6597 before staging a technical correction in the last hour. As of writing, the pair was up 0.66% on a daily basis at 0.6581. The Fed removed the term "patient" from its policy statement when talking about possible future policy adjustments and triggered a USD selloff. After this event, “We continue to expect a 25bps FFTR cut in July; we believe it would take a definitively positive G20 outcome and an improvement in the data for the FOMC not to cut next month," Standard Chartered analysts argued.  "A 50bps cut is also on the table in case of a poor G20 outcome or a pronounced economic deterioration.” The US Dollar Index, which fell to its lowest level in two weeks at 96.57, was last seen at 96.67, where it was down 0.57% on the day. The weekly data from the U:S. revealed that the initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 in the week ending June 14 but didn't have a notable impact on the greenback's valuation.  On the other hand, the data published by the Statistics New Zealand during the Asian trading hours revealed that the real Gross Domestic Product expanded by 0.6% on a quarterly basis in the first quarter to match analysts' estimates and kept the annual growth rate steady at 2.5%. Technical levels to consider 

The buying bias remains well and sound around the European currency, with EUR/USD hovering over the 1.1300 neighbourhood following US data releases. E

EUR/USD eases a tad from tops near 1.1320.US Philly Fed index dropped to 0.3 in June.EMU Consumer Confidence coming up next in the docket.The buying bias remains well and sound around the European currency, with EUR/USD hovering over the 1.1300 neighbourhood following US data releases.EUR/USD looks to 1.1350, monthly highsThe march north in the pair stays unabated so far today, fuelled by increasing selling pressure around the buck in the wake of the dovish shift from the Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Supporting USD-selling, the key Philly Fed manufacturing gauge dropped to 0.3 for the current month, also coming in short of expectations. Further data across the pond saw the Current Account deficit shrinking to $130.0 billion during Q1, although missing previous estimates. However, the continuation of the up move in the pair is expected to be short-lived, as the ECB too is now looking to the possibility of lower rates and/or restarting the QE programme if the outlook on the region worsens and inflation fails to move closer to the bank’s target. Later in the day, the European Commission will publish its preliminary measure of the Consumer Confidence in the region for the current month.What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics appear to be dictating the price action around the European currency for the time being, relegating to a secondary role the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Furthermore, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is advancing 0.64% at 1.1297 and a breakout of 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1353 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the downside, immediate contention is located at 1.1181 (low Jun.18) seconded by 1.1176 (monthly low Mar.7) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30).

The pair’s inability to capitalize on this week’s attempted recovery from multi-month lows clearly suggest that the near-term bearish pressure might s

The GBP/JPY cross witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround from weekly tops - levels beyond the 137.00 handle and dropped to fresh session lows in the last hour.The cross struggled to find acceptance above 200-hour SMA and started retreating from resistance marked by 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 138.24-135.38 recent decline.The pair’s inability to capitalize on this week’s attempted recovery from multi-month lows clearly suggest that the near-term bearish pressure might still be far from over amid growing fears of a no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and have already started losing positive momentum on hourly charts, adding credence to the near-term negative outlook for the cross. However, the intraday slide seems to have found some support near the 136.40 region, which if broken will set the stage for the resumption of the well-established bearish trend and drag the cross towards retesting sub-136.00 level.  A follow-through selling has the potential to drag the cross further towards the recent swing lows, around the 135.40-35 region en-route the key 135.00 psychological mark. GBP/JPY 1-hourly chart 

Canada ADP Employment Change declined to -16K in May from previous 61.7K

While speaking to reporters in Luxembourg, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that if Boris Johnson were to become the new Prime Minister, he will

While speaking to reporters in Luxembourg, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said that if Boris Johnson were to become the new Prime Minister, he will have to deal with the EU deal struck by Theresa May and reiterated that the Withdrawal Agreement won't be reopened.  Varadkar further added that there won't be a transition period if they failed to reach an agreement on the withdrawal deal and repeated there won't be a deal without the Irish backstop.  The market reaction was muted to these remarks as they are nothing new or surprising.

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey below forecasts (11) in June: Actual (0.3)

United States Current Account came in at $-130.4B, below expectations ($-125.6B) in 1Q

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.688M) in June 7: Actual (1.662M)

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 216K, below expectations (220K) in June 14

Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are edging higher today and are approaching the key $56.00 mark amidst ri

WTI moves higher and surpasses the $55.00 mark.US supplies dropped more than expected, according to EIA.Iran-US tensions fuel the upside in prices.Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are edging higher today and are approaching the key $56.00 mark amidst rising geopolitical concerns.WTI up on US-Iran, suppliesCrude oil prices are prolonging the weekly recovery and are trading at shouting distance from the key barrier at the $56.00 yardstick today, gaining nearly 3% on the back of heightened geopolitical jitters and a drop in crude oil investories. In fact, tensions between Iran and the US remain far from abated today after Iran said it shot down a US military drone, while the EIA reported on Wednesday a larger-than-expected draw in US crude oil supplies during last week. In the same line, the Federal Reserve has opened the door to potential rate cuts in the next months, also sustaining the improved sentiment in the risk-associated complex and therefore lending extra legs to the rally in oil prices.What to look for around WTIGeopolitical jitters, including the recent attacks in the Gulf of Oman and today’s incident with a US military drone have been lending extra support to prices as of late, all coupled with somewhat alleviated trade concerns after President Trump opened the door to a potential meeting with China’s Xi Jingpin at the G20 event next week. Also bolstering the upbeat sentiment among traders are positive drivers coming in from the supply side, including the tight US market, the OPEC+ agreement (and potential extension) to curb oil production and the so-called ‘Saudi put’.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is advancing 2.75% at $55.67 and a breakout of $57.19 (38.2% Fibo of the December-April rally) would aim for $58.47 (100-day SMA) and finally $58.85 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, the next down barrier arises at $50.54 (monthly low Jun.5) seconded by $47.39 (78.6% Fibo of the December-April rally) and finally $44.23 (2019 low Jan.2).

TD Securities analysis team note that the Bank of England's MPC voted unanimously to leave policy on hold today, and left most of their messaging unch

TD Securities analysis team note that the Bank of England's MPC voted unanimously to leave policy on hold today, and left most of their messaging unchanged from the May meeting.Key Quotes“We note the following marginal developments: The MPC noted the divergence between its smooth Brexit assumption and the market's implied view, and ascribed the move in the yield curve to a perceived increase in the market's odds of a hard Brexit. GDP growth in 19Q2 was downgraded to 0.0% q/q, leaving first-half growth slightly below that of potential. Our own current tracking suggests -0.2% q/q growth, and we could see the BoE revise their estimate down in the August forecast round. The MPC noted that trade tensions had intensified since May (at that time, they had noted that tensions had been elevated but largely unchanged in previous months). We view this as a relatively obvious marking to market, rather than a sharp change in view by MPC members. Offsetting this, the MPC noted that global financial conditions have eased since May. This in itself is a boost to the economic outlook. The MPC has recently viewed easier financial conditions as an exogenous, non-UK shock, meaning that the impact spills over positively to the UK.” “Between now and August, there are a number of key milestones to pass, including the G20 meetings, (possible) clarity from a new UK Prime Minister on their path of Brexit and/or a general election, and a string of global Q2 survey and activity data. The committee will take full stock of the outlook in August with these in hand.”

The USD/CHF pair added to the overnight weakness and tumbled to five-month lows, around mid-0.9800s in the last hour. Having failed to find acceptance

The post-FOMC USD selloff showed little signs of easing on Thursday.Technical selling below 0.9900 handle further accelerates the downfall.The prevalent risk-on mood fails to lend any support or stall the decline.The USD/CHF pair added to the overnight weakness and tumbled to five-month lows, around mid-0.9800s in the last hour. Having failed to find acceptance above the key parity mark, the pair witnessed an intraday pullback from over two-week lows and continued losing ground through the mid-European session on Thursday. The post-FOMC bearish pressure surrounding the US Dollar remains unabated and turned out to be one of the key factors behind the pair's sharp follow-through decline for the second consecutive session. The Fed indicated the possibility of easier monetary policy later this year amid mounting concerns over a slowing economy and subdued inflation, which dragged the greenback to its lowest level in three months. Adding to this, possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered on a sustained break below the 0.9900 handle further collaborated towards accelerating the downfall to the lowest level since early March. Meanwhile, the prevailing risk-on mood, which tends to undermine demand for the Swiss Franc's relative safe-haven status, did little to inspire the bulls or lend any support and stall the ongoing steep decline.  Next on tap will be the US economic docket - featuring the release of Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and the usual initial weekly jobless claims, which will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities.Technical levels to watch 

In the fourth round of Conservative MPs voting on the next leader, candidate Boris Johnson received 157 votes to remain in the lead in front of Michae

In the fourth round of Conservative MPs voting on the next leader, candidate Boris Johnson received 157 votes to remain in the lead in front of Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt, who got 61 and 51 votes, respectively.  On the other hand, Sajid Javid got eliminated from the race as he came last with 34 votes. Although the GBP/USD pair seems to be pushing lower following these headlines and erasing its daily gains, it is likely that the pair is reacting to the Bank of England's cautious tone in its policy statement.  At the moment, the GBP/USD pair is up 0.3% on the day at 1.2680 while the EUR/GBP is adding 0.43% at 0.8915. 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan crossed the wires in the last minutes saying that the U.S. should think very carefully before imposing sanctions on T

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan crossed the wires in the last minutes saying that the U.S. should think very carefully before imposing sanctions on Turkey. "The U.S. has not given Turkey a very good deal on Patriot missile systems," Erdogan noted. "If Washington imposes sanctions on Turkey, Ankara will respond with reciprocal sanctions." With the initial market reaction, the USD/TRY pair jumped to a daily high of 5.82 and was last seen at 5.77, where it was down 0.2% on a daily basis.  Regarding the economy, Erdogan argued that inflation will not go down if interest rates are high and added that low interest rates would bring a surge in investment and employment, as reported by Reuters.

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, explains that while the Bank of England unanimously opted to keep rates on hold, all things considere

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, explains that while the Bank of England unanimously opted to keep rates on hold, all things considered, the latest statement is slightly more dovish than might have been expected.Key Quotes“In the event, however, they chose not to and interestingly have made reference to the fact that the perceived risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is rising. This is perhaps a subtle nod to the fact that risks to growth could lie to the downside over the summer months if uncertainty continues to rachet up.” “We tend to agree - while the recent growth numbers are being thrown around by sharp changes in inventories, we think underlying economic momentum will remain slightly weaker in the near-term as businesses ramp up preparations for an October ‘no deal’ Brexit.” “We wouldn’t totally rule out a rate hike from the Bank of England later this year if wage growth continues to perform solidly and the immediate threat from Brexit recedes – either through another Article 50 extension or less likely, a deal being ratified by parliament ahead of the October deadline.” “In reality though, we think it is unlikely the Bank will hike rates this year. Domestically, uncertainty is likely to remain elevated – particularly given that we see an increasing probability of a general election later in the year.”

After spending the first half of the day in a relatively tight range near the 0.8880 handle, the EUR/GBP gained traction in the last hour and rose abo

BoE leaves policy rate unchanged at 0.75% with a unanimous vote as expected.Bank revises GDP growth forecast in Q2 to 0% from 0.2%.Retail sales in the UK decline by 0.5% in May.After spending the first half of the day in a relatively tight range near the 0.8880 handle, the EUR/GBP gained traction in the last hour and rose above the 0.89 mark after the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious tone in its policy statement weighed on the British pound. As of writing, the pair was up 0.35% on a daily basis at 0.8908. As widely expected, the BoE decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% following today's meeting. However, the bank in its statement noted that downside risks to growth had increased since the last meeting and explained that intensifying global trade tensions and the perceived likelihood of no-deal Brexit weighed on the sentiment. Furthermore, the bank announced that it cut its growth expectation for the second quarter to 0% on a quarterly basis from 0.2% announced back in May. Earlier in the day, the UK's Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales in May contracted by 0.5% on a monthly basis to drag the annual growth rate down to 2.3% from 5.1%. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President De Guindos today on the policy outlook said rate cuts were only a possibility for now, but was largely ignored.Technical levels to consider 

The USD/CAD pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and weakened farther below the 1.3200 handle, hitting fresh 3-1/2 month lows

The USD extended post-FOMC downfall and drops to three-month lows.Canadian Dollar remains supported by Wednesday’s domestic CPI print.Surging Oil prices underpin Loonie and add to the intense bearish pressure.The USD/CAD pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and weakened farther below the 1.3200 handle, hitting fresh 3-1/2 month lows in the last hour. The pair extended this week's pullback from levels beyond the 1.3400 handle, with a combination of factors exerting some heavy bearish pressure and fueling the ongoing decline for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The US Dollar dropped to its lowest level in three months on Thursday in the aftermath of dovish sounding Fed, indicating that it remains ready to ease monetary policy to combat subdued inflation and slowing growth. On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar remained supported by Wednesday's hotter-than-expected consumer inflation figures, which might encourage the BoC to retain the current policy at its next meeting in July. This coupled with a strong rally in Crude Oil prices provided an additional boost to the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and further collaborated to the pair's steep downfall to its lowest level since early-March. In fact, Oil prices rallied over 3.5% and moved back closer to $56.00/barrel mark amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially after a US military drone was reportedly shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile. Thursday's slide could further be attributed to some aggressive technical selling once the pair found acceptance below the very important 200-day SMA support and the previous swing lows support near the 1.3240 region.  The US economic docket - featuring the release of Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and weekly jobless claims data, along with Canadian ADP report on private sector employment will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus.Technical levels to watch 

The knee-jerk in the Sterling is now motivating GBP/JPY to recede from the area of daily highs in the boundaries of 137.20, returning to levels below

GBP/JPY eases from daily highs post-BoE event.Earlier, UK headline Retail Sales contracted 0.5% MoM.The BoE left the repo rate unchanged at 0.75% today.The knee-jerk in the Sterling is now motivating GBP/JPY to recede from the area of daily highs in the boundaries of 137.20, returning to levels below the key support at 137.00 the figure.GBP/JPY looks to risk trends, UK politicsIn spite of the correction from tops, the cross keeps the weekly recovery well and sound on Thursday, up for the third session in a row from Tuesday’s 135.40 area, or fresh 5-month lows. Today’s decision to keep rates on hold by the Bank of England was supported by a unanimous vote and sparked some selling around the British Pound, particularly after stressing that risks of a Brexit ‘no deal’ scenario are on the rise. In addition, the ‘Old Lady’ revised lower its economic growth projections and sees consumer prices slipping below the 2% level later in the year, all coupled with signs that wage growth could have stopped increasing. Earlier in the UK docket, headline Retail Sales contracted at a monthly 0.5% in May, while core sales dropped 0.3% inter-month. The continuation of the rebound in the cross remains largely dependent on the broader risk-appetite trends, where the potential for a move down on rates by the Federal Reserve and ongoing trade jitters should play a significant role. However, persistent uncertainty around the UK government and Brexit carries the potential to undermine any serious rebound in GBP in the near/medium term.GBP/JPY key levelsAs the moment the cross is gaining 0.11% at 136.79 and a break above 137.17 (high Jun.20) would expose 137.53 (21-day SMA) and then 141.50 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the immediate support aligns at 136.43 (100-hour SMA) followed by 135.38 (low Jun.18) and finally 130.69 (2019 low Jan.3).

Sonia Meskin, US economist at Standard Chartered, points out that in the June FOMC meeting, the Committee clearly left the door open for a rate cut, w

Sonia Meskin, US economist at Standard Chartered, points out that in the June FOMC meeting, the Committee clearly left the door open for a rate cut, without indicating a definitive commitment to easing and was consistently communicated in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the statement and the press conference.Key Quotes“We continue to expect a 25bps FFTR cut in July; we believe it would take a definitively positive G20 outcome and an improvement in the data for the FOMC not to cut next month. A 50bps cut is also on the table in case of a poor G20 outcome or a pronounced economic deterioration.” “Policy easing would be largely pre-emptive: the SEP and the post-meeting statement emphasised little change to the baseline outlook for growth and inflation but noted increasing downside risks, primarily from slowing global growth and trade tensions.” “Also in line with our expectations, Chair Powell mentioned in the press conference that a key goal of the ongoing policy framework review is to strengthen the FOMC’s commitment to the 2% medium-term inflation objective through communication strategies. We expect this to come in the form of forward guidance, as we described in Fed framework review won’t bring pre-emptive cuts. However, further downside risks to growth would be a concern, as they could entrench low inflation expectations. Separately, contrary to our expectation, the FOMC did not signal an end to the balance-sheet taper before September 2019.”

The GBP/USD pair trimmed a part of its early strong gains to over one-week tops, albeit remained well bid near the 1.2700 handle post-BoE announcement

The post-FOMC USD selling helped gained traction for the third straight session.The BoE MPC voted unanimously to leave rates/asset purchase facility unchanged.The BoE lowers its Q2 GDP growth estimates and acknowledges the downward risk.The GBP/USD pair trimmed a part of its early strong gains to over one-week tops, albeit remained well bid near the 1.2700 handle post-BoE announcement. The dovish FOMC-led US Dollar selloff helped the pair to build on this week's recovery from multi-month lows near the key 1.2500 psychological mark and continue gaining traction for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The bullish sentiment seemed rather unaffected by a slight disappointment from the UK monthly retail sales figures for May, with the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the strong follow-through up-move.  As James Smith - developed markets economist at ING, points out that a fall in the UK retail sales is clearly down to the weather, where colder temperatures appear to have discouraged people from updating their summer wardrobes. Meanwhile, the latest BoE monetary policy decision, wherein the UK central bank decided to maintain status-quo turned out to be a non-event for the market did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the British Pound. The BoE MPC voted unanimously to leave benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.75% and asset purchase facility at £435 billion, though slightly dovish outlook in the accompanying statement exerted some pressure on the major. The BoE lowered its estimate of Q2 GDP growth to 0.0% from 0.2% previous and said that the downside risks to growth have increased amid intensifying global trade tensions and the increasing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit. The downside, however, remained limited and hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further intraday slide ahead of the second-tier US economic releases later this Thursday.Technical levels to watch 

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the US Philly Fed survey is expected to show a decline to 10.7 in June following the notable 8.1 increase to 16

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the US Philly Fed survey is expected to show a decline to 10.7 in June following the notable 8.1 increase to 16.6 in May.Key Quotes“We flag that, as was the case with the NY Empire survey, this report may surprise further to the downside as it will likely reflect the negative sentiment from the US-Mexico trade spat that was at its high around the collection of the survey responses.”

In a widely expected decision, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% with a unanimous vote. The asse

BoE keeps policy rate steady at 0.75% as expected.Bank says tightening of monetary policy at gradual and limited pace needed.Notes downside risks to growth have increased since May.  In a widely expected decision, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% with a unanimous vote. The asset purchase facility remained steady at €435 billion as well. With the initial market reaction, the British pound came under a renewed pressure and weakened against both the dollar and the euro. Developing story...

The better tone in the European currency is bolstering the recovery in EUR/JPY to the area just below 122.00 the figure. EUR/JPY now looks to US docke

EUR/JPY trades on a better mood albeit still in sub-122.00 levels.Improved sentiment in the riskier assets sustains today’s up move.US Philly Fed next of relevance in the calendar.The better tone in the European currency is bolstering the recovery in EUR/JPY to the area just below 122.00 the figure.EUR/JPY now looks to US docket, risk trendsThe cross is reversing two consecutive sessions with losses and at the same time is charting a bullish ‘outside day’, which could be a prologue of further gains. The increased selling pressure in the greenback post-FOMC meeting is lending extra oxygen to the risk-associated complex, while the ongoing rebound in yields of the US 10-year benchmark is also adding to JPY-selling. Later in the session, and while market participants continue to adjust to the fresh views from the FOMC, the Philly Fed index is next on tap along with usual report from Initial Claims and Current Account figures for the first quarter. In Japan, the BoJ left its monetary policy unchanged as broadly expected, while the calendar showed the All Industry Activity Index expanding more than expected at 0.9% MoM.EUR/JPY relevant levelsAt the moment the cross is gaining 0.39% at 121.82 and faces the next hurdle at 122.08 (10-day SMA) followed by 123.17 (high Jun.11) and then 123.75 (high May 21). On the other hand, a breakdown of 121.06 (low Jun.18) would expose 120.78 (low Jun.3) and then 120.54 (monthly low Jan.17 2017).

United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (0.75%)

United Kingdom BoE Asset Purchase Facility meets expectations (£435B)

-- more to come Follow all the updates in the BOE live coverage The Bank of England was expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% in a u

-- more to come Follow all the updates in the BOE live coverage The Bank of England was expected to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% in a unanimous vote. However, some have expected the BOE to alter its language and drop its intention to raise rates. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other central banks have changed their policy amid low inflation and rising uncertainty related to trade. In the UK, Brexit uncertainty is elevated while economic data has been mixed. Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech at Mansion House later in the day.

Danske Bank analysts point out that the Norges Bank (NB) this morning has raised policy rates by 25bp taking the sight deposit rate from 1.00% to 1.25

Danske Bank analysts point out that the Norges Bank (NB) this morning has raised policy rates by 25bp taking the sight deposit rate from 1.00% to 1.25% while the rate path was marginally adjusted upwards at the short end and marginally downwards at the long-end.Key Quotes“The message is clearly hawkish as a strong domestic business cycle suggests a further frontloading of monetary tightening despite elevated international uncertainty at present.” “The executive board concluded that the '...current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks suggests that the policy rate will most likely be increased further in the course of 2019 '. The rate path implies a 70-80% probability of that hike coming in September. While NB has previously cautioned against over-interpreting the implied probabilities the press conference did confirm that the board wanted to signal September as the most likely time for the next rate hike.” “The long-end of the rate path was lowered marginally to 1.67% (from 1.73%). This falls within NB's estimate of the neutral sight deposit rate of [1.60%-2.60%]. Overall the rate path therefore suggests another hike in 2019 and a roughly 70% probability of a second additional hike - most likely in 2020.” “We now expect NB to hike the sight deposit rate again by another 25bp at the 19 September board meeting. We acknowledge the drop in foreign rates since Friday (the deadline of the MPR) but still think September is more likely than December. For 2020 our base case remains another 2 hikes.”  

TD Securities analysts note that the UK retail sales declined 0.5% m/m in May as expected, with some small revisions to the prior month. Key Quotes “M

TD Securities analysts note that the UK retail sales declined 0.5% m/m in May as expected, with some small revisions to the prior month.Key Quotes“Most components showed declines, with a sharp give-back in clothing & footwear the standout. May marks the second consecutive decline in retail sales, but after a strong 1.6% q/q gain in 19Q1, shouldn't be a big cause for concern for the MPC ahead of today's decision, and still leaves the snapshot for Q2 retail sales in positive territory.”

The USD/JPY pair dropped to its lowest level since the flash crash witnessed in early January at 107.46 today but staged a technical correction.

Fed's dovish shift continues to weigh on the greenback.10-year US Treasury bond yield plummets to lowest level since November 2016.Wall Street looks to open sharply higher on Thursday.The USD/JPY pair dropped to its lowest level since the flash crash witnessed in early January at 107.46 today but staged a technical correction ahead of the American session. As of writing, the pair is trading at 107.80, losing 0.25% on a daily basis. The FOMC removed the phrase "patient" from its policy statement following its 2-day meeting this week and opened the door to potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year. With the initial reaction, the greenback came under strong selling pressure and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield turned south and dropped below the critical 2% mark for the first time since late 2016, forcing the USD/JPY pair to push lower. The US Dollar Index, which earlier this week advanced up to 97.77, made a sharp U-turn in the late American session on Wednesday and extended its slide today. As of writing, the index was down 0.58% on the day at 96.66. Summarizing the FOMC event, "While the ‘dots’ projections showed just one rate cut expected by the median committee member in 2020, 7 of 17 members now expect 50bp of cuts in 2019. In the press conference, Chair Powell gave this a further dovish spin by stating that even those who expected no change in policy this year nonetheless saw a stronger case for further accommodation,” said ABN AMRO analysts.  Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan didn't announce any changes to its monetary policy as expected and didn't have an impact on the JPY's valuation. "It is possible to keep current low rates beyond the spring of 2020," BoJ Governor Kuroda said during the press conference. Later in the day, weekly jobless claims data and Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey from the U.S. will be released but are unlikely to help the greenback gather strength. Markets will also be paying close attention to stock markets. The S&P 500 Futures is up 0.85% on the day, suggesting that Wall Street is likely to open sharply higher, which could make it difficult for the JPY to preserve its strength in a risk-on environment. Technical levels to watch for  

ANZ analysts note that the Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.00% today, but cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RR

ANZ analysts note that the Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.00% today, but cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps.Key Quotes“The RRR cut is welcome, given that liquidity conditions have tightened. It’s worth noting that BI last cut its RRR in December 2015 and March 2016, while the policy rate was lowered multiple times starting January 2016.” “Accordingly, cuts to BI’s policy rate seem to be, in BI Governor’s Perry Warjiyo’s words, a “matter of timing.” BI may be keen to wait for more clarity post G20 and on whether the US Fed would lower its policy rate before finally pulling the trigger.” “The upshot is that we are maintaining our view for 75bps worth of rate cuts by BI over the next one year, with the first potentially materialising in July.”

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that the UK retail sales have fallen for the second month in a row and some of this is cle

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that the UK retail sales have fallen for the second month in a row and some of this is clearly down to the weather, where colder temperatures appear to have discouraged people from updating their summer wardrobes.Key Quotes“Clothing and footwear sales slipped by 4.5% compared to April. This weakness means that the year-on-year growth rate in retail sales (ex-fuel) has slipped back from just over 6% in March to 2.2% now – although admittedly this also has a lot to do with the World Cup/weather-related spike at the same time last year.” “Barring a big recovery in June (which given the recent deluge of rain, seems fairly unlikely), it looks like consumer spending will add to the second quarter growth slump. It looks increasingly likely that second-quarter growth could come in flat or only marginally positive, given the likely drag from manufacturing production and inventory rundowns too.”

TD Securities analysts note that the Norges Bank delivered the 25bps rate hike today that was fully expected, and signalled its intention to raise rat

TD Securities analysts note that the Norges Bank delivered the 25bps rate hike today that was fully expected, and signalled its intention to raise rates again in H2, in September in particular.Key Quotes“We maintain our forecast for the next rate hike to come in Q1 2020, but with a very wide uncertainty band around that timing. If everything goes right then the Norges Bank could certainly raise rates again in September; but equally, a materialization of downside risks could see the Norges Bank remain on hold until 2021, leaving us without sufficient confidence to pull our rate hike forecast forward.” “The Norges Bank's slight upgrade to their near-term rate path highlights the growing degree of monetary policy divergence to the rest of its G10 peers. This should fuel some further NOK appreciation against the EUR and its other G10 peers, but progress is likely to slow from here as the broader risk backdrop remains fragile.”

Markets eagerly await the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision on its monetary policy, which will be announced at 1100GMT, accompanied by the release of t

BOE monetary policy decision - Overview Markets eagerly await the Bank of England’s (BOE) decision on its monetary policy, which will be announced at 1100GMT, accompanied by the release of the minutes of its policy meeting. The June meeting does not have the post-policy press conference held by Governor Mark Carney. The BOE is widely expected to keep the benchmark bank rate unchanged at 0.75%, with a 9-0 voting composition in favor of rates on hold. Today’s policy meeting is highly anticipated, as markets can’t wait to understand the UK central bank’s outlook on the interest rates for this year amid increased odds of a no-deal Brexit and improving economic condition. Markets are pricing in that the BOE will maintain its rate-hike bias, although a dovish surprise cannot be ruled, with the Fed and ECB both switching to the dovish bias amid trade war and global economic slowdown. Carney and his company could very well hint that the next move in the rates could be downward instead of their hawkish tone.    FXStreet’s Senior Analyst, Joseph Trevisani, writes: “The mildly dovish FOMC statement on Wednesday and recent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the comments by ECB President Mario Draghi that the bank could cut rates if needed have made Mr. Carney’s job all the harder.” “The voting balance on the MPC will matter as well, if it is not unanimous and one or more members vote for a rate decrease it could galvanize markets to move forcefully towards lower rates,” Joseph adds. How could it affect GBP/USD? In the wake of a dovish tilt, i.e., if the BOE joins its global peers’ dovish actions and removes the mention of a rate hike in the statement, the pound could stall its post-FOMC rally and come under heavy selling pressure that could knock-off the GBP/USD pair to 1.2650 levels. Technically, “The next resistance line is critical – 1.2765 was a double top seen earlier this month. It is followed by the swing high of 1.2815 recorded in May and by the April low of 1.2870. Further above, 1.2900 and 1.2925 await. GBP/USD has some support at 1.2710 which was a swing high last week. It is followed by 1.2660 and 1.2640 which were both stepping stones on the way up. Next, we find 1.2625 which capped cable late last week.,” Yohay Elam, Senior Analyst at FXStreet notes. Key Notes BoE Preview: Major Banks are forecasting no change in policy today UK retail sales arrive at -0.5% m/m in May, meet estimates (GBP keeps highs) EUR/GBP struggles for direction below 0.8900 ahead of BoE About the BOE interest rate decision BOE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.

The weaker note surrounding the greenback is allowing both the Sterling and the shared currency to recover further ground and is prompting EUR/GBP to

EUR/GBP meets support in the 0.8870 regionUK Retail Sales contracted 0.5% MoM in May.BoE event is coming up next.The weaker note surrounding the greenback is allowing both the Sterling and the shared currency to recover further ground and is prompting EUR/GBP to gyrate around the 0.8880 region.EUR/GBP steady post-data, looks to BoEThe European cross has come under further pressure this week, retreating from recent multi-month peaks in the 0.8970 region and extending the leg lower to the current multi-day lows in the 0.8880/70 band. As usual, uncertainty keeps lingering over the UK government, while latest news from the Conservative leader contest noted that only four candidates remain left after Rory Stewart was knocked out yesterday. Once again, Boris Jonhson led ballot with 143 votes. The rest of the candidates are Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Sajid Javid. In the UK docket, the Sterling has practically ignored today’s mixed results from the calendar, where headline Retail Sales contracted at a monthly 0.5% and core sales dropped 0.3% on a month to May. Later in the session, the Bank of England event should grab all the attention, despite the probability of significant announces are close to zero.What to look for around GBPRising uncertainty in the UK political scenario is expected to keep the cautious tone in the British Pound, while USD-dynamics emerged as a key driver for the ongoing up move in Cable, although its sustainability remains to be seen. In the UK economy, mixed-to-poor results from fundamentals continue to add to the sour prospects for the economy in the months to come. On another direction, the current steady stance from the Bank of England is seen unchanged and justified by below-target inflation figures and somewhat slowing momentum in wage inflation pressures.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is gaining 0.08% at 0.8887 and a break above 0.8974 (monthly high Jun.17) would expose 0.9062 (low Jan.11) and finally 0.9092 (2019 high Jan.3). On the downside, the next support is located at 0.8869 (21-day SMA) seconded by 0.8826 (low Jun.5) and then 0.8778 (200-day SMA).

Spain 3-y Bond Auction declined to -0.408% from previous -0.361%

Spain 5-y Bond Auction: -0.182% vs previous -0.096%

Gold built on the post-FOMC upsurge and rallied to near six-year tops during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit retreated a bit thereafter. The Fed

Fed opened doors for a rate cut later this year and triggers some aggressive buying.Tumbling US bond yields/prevalent USD bearish pressure remained supportive.Bullish equities seemed to be the only factor capping gains amid overbought conditions.Gold built on the post-FOMC upsurge and rallied to near six-year tops during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit retreated a bit thereafter. The Fed on Wednesday left key interest rates unchanged but kept the door open for an interest rate cut by the end of this year. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped below the 2.0% mark in reaction to dovish FOMC commentary and benefitted the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a free fall in the US Treasury bond yields triggered some aggressive US Dollar selling pressure and provided an additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity and collaborated to the ongoing strong positive momentum to the highest level since September 2013. Adding to this, possibilities of some aggressive stops being triggered on a sustained move beyond last week's swing high, around the $1358 region, further aggravated the move during the Asian session on Thursday and lifted the commodity closer to the key $1400 psychological mark. However, the prevailing risk-on mood, as depicted by bullish trading sentiment across European bourses and indications of a strong opening in the US equity markets, weighed on the precious metal's relative safe-haven status and seemed to be the only factor capping gains.  It would now be interesting to see if the commodity is able to attract some fresh dip-buying interest or traders opt to take some profits off the table amid near-term overbought conditions and renewed optimism over a possible resolution to the prolonged US-China trade disputes.Technical levels to watch 

Reuters reports the latest headlines from the Chinese FX Regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), citing that the cross-border

Reuters reports the latest headlines from the Chinese FX Regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), citing that the cross-border capital flows showed positive changes in May. Nothing further is out on the same.

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that Norges Bank has taken its tightening cycle a step further on Thursday by increasing i

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that Norges Bank has taken its tightening cycle a step further on Thursday by increasing interest rates a quarter point to 1.25% which is in stark contrast to many of its developed markets peers.Key Quotes“Given this move was clearly flagged back in May, the bigger focus is the Norwegian central bank’s new interest rate projection – and as expected it’s a tale of two halves.” “Probably the biggest news is that the central bank thinks it will “most likely” hike again over the course of 2019, having previously seen the next move around the first quarter of 2020. That follows a better-than-expected reading from the latest oil investment survey for 2019 spending.” “We expect the central bank to hike rates again December, although as ever a lot will depend on how trade tensions evolve over coming months.”

According to the latest Reuters poll, investors turned bullish on most of the Asian currencies over the past two weeks while the bearish bets returned

According to the latest Reuters poll, investors turned bullish on most of the Asian currencies over the past two weeks while the bearish bets returned for the Indian Rupee, in the face of economic slowdown concerns. Key Findings: “Bets on the rupee turned bearish for the first time since late February, a poll of 14 respondents showed. All 13 participants in the poll were bearish on the Chinese yuan, cautioned by weak economic data following the drawn-out trade war saga. Short bets on the South Korean won and the Taiwan dollar unwound slightly but stayed in bear territory.  The Philippine peso saw bearish bets strengthen slightly, a poll of 12 respondents showed.  A poll of 13 respondents showed bearish bets ease on the Indonesian rupiah.  The Thai baht has been the best performing regional currency this year and bucked the wider trend in this poll to see long positions strengthen.”

TD Securities analysts point out that as widely expected and in line with their view there was no change to BoJ policy, in a 7-2 vote. Key Quotes “The

TD Securities analysts point out that as widely expected and in line with their view there was no change to BoJ policy, in a 7-2 vote.Key Quotes“They left the 10y yield target at about 0%, maintained policy balance rate at -0.1%, asset purchases were unchanged and likewise there was no change in forward guidance. However, the statement sounded cautious, highlighting “significant” downside overseas economic risks including developments in China, noting the need to pay close attention to the impact on sentiment.” “We don’t see a hurry for the BoJ to shift policy despite the Fed’s dovish although Kuroda recently highlighted several options for action. There may be a slight disappointment that BoJ did not alter its forward guidance.”

In view of Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, despite aggressive pricing for Fed rate cuts, the FOMC statement and a dovish Chair Powell pres

In view of Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, despite aggressive pricing for Fed rate cuts, the FOMC statement and a dovish Chair Powell press conference appeared to more than satisfy market expectations, with bond yields moving lower and equities pushing higher.Key Quotes“Most significantly, the FOMC statement removed reference to ‘patience’ over policy, and strengthened Powell’s recent remark that the Fed will ‘act as appropriate to sustain the expansion’ by removing the qualifier ‘as always’. As well as highlighting the increased uncertainty over the outlook as the Fed’s primary concern, the statement bolstered the case for easing by pointing to ‘muted inflation pressures’. While the characterisation of survey-based inflation expectations was kept as ‘little changed’, in the press conference Powell noted that they are ‘near the bottom’ of historical ranges and expressed concern over the risk of expectations becoming unanchored.” “While the ‘dots’ projections showed just one rate cut expected by the median committee member in 2020, 7 of 17 members now expect 50bp of cuts in 2019. In the press conference, Chair Powell gave this a further dovish spin by stating that even those who expected no change in policy this year nonetheless saw a stronger case for further accommodation.” “Powell also countered suggestions that a US-China trade deal alone might be enough to prevent rate cuts, by pointing to the weakness in business investment and manufacturing, and the slowdown in global growth as additional factors the committee is weighing.” “Our base case remains that the Fed will implement three 25bp cuts by Q1 2020, starting at the July meeting.”

The Italian Statistics Office (Istat) came out with its latest report on the domestic economy, with the key points found below. Italy's economy will l

The Italian Statistics Office (Istat) came out with its latest report on the domestic economy, with the key points found below. Italy's economy will likely contract in Q2. But maintains forecast for 2019 GDP growth of 0.3%.

The Norwegian Krone is appreciating sharply vs. its European peer in the second half of the week and is dragging EUR/NOK to the area of 2-month lows i

EUR/NOK drops to multi-week lows near 9.6600.The Norges Bank hiked rates by 25 bp to 1.25%.The central bank hinted at further tightening in the next months.The Norwegian Krone is appreciating sharply vs. its European peer in the second half of the week and is dragging EUR/NOK to the area of 2-month lows in the 9.6600 neighbourhood.EUR/NOK lower post-NBNOK has intensified its buying interest today after the Norwegian central bank – the Norges Bank – raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 1.25%, matching the broad consensus among investors. Following today’s hike, the Norges Bank said that further tightening remains on the table, confirming the view that the Scandinavian central bank continues to decouple from the rest of its developed peers, which remain immersed well into the dovish territory. The Norges Bank justified its decision on rates on the solid health of the Nordic economy, high capacity utilization and inflation running a tad above the bank’s target.What to look for around NOKThe mood around the risk complex, Brent-dynamics, a healthy economy and a hawkish central bank continue to be the main drivers for the Norwegian currency for the time being. Recent results from the Regional Network Survey showed fundamentals in the Nordic economy remain pretty solid, reinforcing the case of further tightening by the Norges Bank in the upcoming months as well as a stronger Krone.EUR/NOK significant levelsAs of writing the cross is losing 0.94% at 9.6775 and a breach of 9.6633 (low Jun.20) would expose 9.6221 (78.6% Fibo of the April-May rally) and finally 9.5896 (monthly low Mar.21). On the upside, the next hurdle comes in at 9.8318 (monthly high Jun.11) followed by 9.8761 (monthly high May 10) and then 9.8803 (monthly high Mar.8).

WTI (futures on Nymex) extended its bullish momentum and went on to hit fresh three-week highs at 55.86 in early Europe, now consolidating the latest

Rallied hard on escalating Middle-East tensions after US drone downed. Supported by the drop in US crude stockpiles, OPEC meet agreement, USD declines. Focus on US-Iran geopolitical tensions and US data for fresh directives. WTI (futures on Nymex) extended its bullish momentum and went on to hit fresh three-week highs at 55.86 in early Europe, now consolidating the latest uptick around 55.50 levels. The latest move higher was mainly prompted by the latest reports that fanned the ongoing US-Iran conflict, citing that a US spy-drone was downed by Iran. Both sides confirmed the reports while the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander said that downing of the US drone sends a clear message to Washington. Tensions have been rising between the US and Iran and therefore, in the Middle East after last week’s attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the sentiment around the black gold remains underpinned after the OPEC and other producer agreed on a date to meet and discuss the oil output cuts extensions. Additionally, a bigger-than-expected drop in the US crude inventories also offers fresh impetus to oil bulls. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that the US crude stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, compared with the expectations for a draw of 1.1 million barrels. Furthermore, the oil traders cheer the ongoing slump in the US dollar across its main peers after the US Treasury yields got sold-off into an overtly dovish FOMC. The Fed left the interest rates unchanged but pointed towards rate cuts in the coming months. A weaker greenback makes the USD-denominated oil cheaper for the holders in foreign currencies. Markets now remain glued to the development around the US-Iran conflict while the US macro news will be closely eyed for fresh USD trades and its eventual impact on the US oil. WTI Technical Levels      

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the EU Leaders have gathered to discuss filling the positions of EU Council President, EU Commission Presiden

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the EU Leaders have gathered to discuss filling the positions of EU Council President, EU Commission President, and ECB President.Key Quotes“They had earlier hoped to finalise the nominations over dinner on Thursday (with a press conference to follow), but EU election results have complicated the negotiations, and there's no clear "winning formula" for the three top jobs now. It's not impossible that the ECB President be named later tonight (or at least, an unofficial list of finalists leaked), but it looks more and more like the decisions will now take place at an "emergency summit" on 30 June / 1 July.”

Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the Fed meeting has opened the door to rate cuts as early as July. Key Quotes “They did note that Powell said “the

Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that the Fed meeting has opened the door to rate cuts as early as July. Key Quotes“They did note that Powell said “there was not much support” for a cut at yesterday’s meeting (excluding Bullard’s dissent), which likely means that they will need to see further deterioration in the data and/or worsening trade conflict to feel fully comfortable cutting in July. Even apart from those conditions, our econ team thinks that Powell’s comments on the ongoing Fed review, plus the persistence of inflation undershooting, potentially signal a willingness to allow for an “opportunistic reflation,” as Governor Brainard has described it. That would argue for a rate cut even if the data and trade talks do not deteriorate.” “Overall, our econ team expects conditions to evolve sufficiently to warrant a cut in July, and view a 25bps move as more likely than 50bps, and they continue to anticipate a total of three rate cuts this year.” “The biggest market reaction came in rates, where short-end treasuries rallied sharply and money markets moved to price in even greater odds of Fed easing. There are now 32bps of cuts priced in for the July Fed meeting; implying a near-certainty of a 25bps cut and some additional chance of a 50bps cut. Beyond that, there are now a full 75bps priced in through end-2019 and 100bps over the next 12 months.”

The GBP/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone near one-week tops and had a rather muted reaction to the latest UK retail sales data. The pair built

The post-FOMC USD selloff continues to fuel the strong recovery momentum.Thursday’s mixed UK retail sales data does little to dent the bullish sentiment.Investors now look forward to the latest BoE policy update for some impetus.The GBP/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone near one-week tops and had a rather muted reaction to the latest UK retail sales data. The pair built on this week's goodish bounce from the vicinity of the key 1.2500 psychological mark, or multi-month lows, and continued gaining strong positive traction for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The post-FOMC free fall in the US Treasury bond yields kept exerting some heavy downward pressure on the US Dollar and turned out to be one of the key factors fueling the momentum beyond the 1.2700 handle. With the prevailing USD selling bias acting as an exclusive driver of the pair's strong up-move, bullish traders seemed rather unaffected by Thursday's mixed release of the UK monthly retail sales figures. In fact, the headline sales fell -0.5% in May as compared to -0.1% recorded in the previous month while core figures came in slightly better-than-expected, showing a decline of 0.3% as against 0.4% consensus estimates. The disappointment, however, came from yearly figures, which showed a sharp deceleration to 2.3% and 2.2% in the headline and core figures respectively as compared to 5.1% and 4.7% growth in the previous month. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the latest BoE monetary policy decision for some fresh impetus, though seems more likely to be a non-event for GBP traders amid persistent Brexit uncertainties.Technical levels to watch 

More comments are hitting the wires from the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President de Guindos on the monetary policy. The buying of assets remain

More comments are hitting the wires from the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President de Guindos on the monetary policy. The buying of assets remains part of the ECB's toolkit. Monetary policy decisions were taken unanimously. Rate cuts are only a possibility for now.

The UK retail sales came in at % over the month in May vs. -0.5% expected and -0.1% previous. The core retail sales stripping the auto motor fuel sale

The UK retail sales arrive at -0.5% m/m in May.The UK core retail sales drop by 0.3% m/m in May.The UK retail sales came in at % over the month in May vs. -0.5% expected and -0.1% previous. The core retail sales stripping the auto motor fuel sales stood at -0.3% m/m vs. -0.5% expected and -0.3% previous. On an annualized basis, the UK retail sales rose 2.3% in May versus 2.7% expected while the core retail sales also advanced 2.2% in the reported month versus 4.7% previous and 2.5% expectations.

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 2.3%, below expectations (2.7%) in May

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) came in at 2.2%, below expectations (2.5%) in May

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at -0.3%, above forecasts (-0.4%) in May

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.5%) in May

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was out on the wires in the last hour saying that we are not seeking special treatment on the EU budget rules an

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was out on the wires in the last hour saying that we are not seeking special treatment on the EU budget rules and are aiming to lower the structural deficit next year by 0.2%.Additional quotes:   •  Interpretation of the EU budget rules so far has constantly penalized Italy's efforts to boost growth.
   •  The threat by the EU commission to sanction Italy is incomprehensible.

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that they are updating levels in the wake of Wednesday's FOMC meeting and with economic data mixed and Brexit/politi

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that they are updating levels in the wake of Wednesday's FOMC meeting and with economic data mixed and Brexit/politics muddling the outlook, the MPC is likely to vote unanimously to leave policy on hold.Key Quotes“Increasingly hawkish comments set against a more worrisome global backdrop set the stage for surprise this week.” “FX: Our base case still sees a muted reaction in GBP, particularly as it has already had a decent run this week. Directional risks remain more a function of the UK's political backdrop and global risk environment.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) released its economic bulletin, with the key highlights noted below. Underlying growth momentum continued to soften in

The European Central Bank (ECB) released its economic bulletin, with the key highlights noted below. Underlying growth momentum continued to soften in early 2019. Survey-based indicators confirm a gradual weakening in growth momentum. Global financial conditions have been volatile in recent months. Global growth is projected to decelerate this year amid increasing headwinds.

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD’s slide lower has halted at 1.2532 as the new low has been accompanied by a large divergence

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD’s slide lower has halted at 1.2532 as the new low has been accompanied by a large divergence of the daily RSI and the market have eroded the accelerated downtrend.Key Quotes“Rallies will need to regain the more important 1.2763/72 resistance (the 7th June high and February low) in order to generate some upside interest. This will target the 200 day ma at 1.2931. Below 1.2532 would trigger further losses to the 1.2444 December 2018 low.” “Below 1.2532 would target the 1.2444 December 2018 low. This is the last defence for 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from 2016.”

Greece Current Account (YoY) climbed from previous €-1.503B to €-1.4B in April

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1298 Today Daily Change 76 Today Daily Change % 0.64 Today daily open 1.1226 Trends Daily SMA2

The recovery in EUR/USD is now picking up extra pace and is flirting with the key 1.1300 neighbourhood on increased USD-weakness.The continuation of the upside momentum could extend to monthly tops in the mid-1.1300s and the 200-week SMA, also in the hood.Ideally, spot should clear the multi-month resistance line, today at 1.1331, to alleviate downside pressure.EUR/USD daily chart  

Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (1.25%)

The AUD/USD pair held on to its strong intraday gains near weekly tops and was now seen extending the momentum further beyond the 0.6900 handle. The

The USD continues to be weighed down by the dovish FOMC statement.The latest US-China trade optimism remained supportive of the up-move. The AUD/USD pair held on to its strong intraday gains near weekly tops and was now seen extending the momentum further beyond the 0.6900 handle. The pair built on this week's goodish recovery move from multi-month lows, with a combination of supporting factors helping the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The US Dollar remained on the defensive and lost some additional ground in the wake of Wednesday's dovish FOMC statement, suggesting that the US central bank could ease monetary policy as early as next month. The Fed acknowledged that uncertainties have increased and inflationary pressure has receded, which triggered a fresh leg of a free fall in the US Treasury bond yields and kept exerting downward pressure on the greenback. On the other hand, the China-proxy Australian Dollar further benefitted from some renewed optimism over a possible resolution to the prolonged trade disputes between the world's two largest economies. In the latest development, China Commerce Ministry confirmed that the top US and Chinese trade officials will hold discussions under instruction from respective leaders, albeit failed to provide any fresh bullish impetus. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair might have actually bottomed out in the near-term and positioning for an extension of the ongoing recovery move. Moving ahead, Thursday's US economic docket - featuring the releases of Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and initial weekly jobless claims, will now be looked upon for some impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 96.72 Today Daily Change 53 Today Daily Change % -0.56 Today daily open 97.26 Trends Daily

The greenback continues to correct lower following the dovish message at the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.Further retracements should meet the next relevant support at the 200-day SMA and the multi-month support line in the mid-96.00s. This area of contention is reinforced by recent monthly lows in the 96.50/45 band.A resumption of the bullish stance should find initial target at the 97.36/43 band, where coincide the 21-day and 55-day SMAs.DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 121.56 Today Daily Change 51 Today Daily Change % 0.16 Today daily open 121.36 Trends Daily SMA2

EUR/JPY is recovering some ground lost after bottoming out in the vicinity of 121.00 the figure earlier in the week.The resumption of the selling impetus could expose a visit to recent lows in the 120.80/75 band ahead of 2019 lows in sub-119.00 levels (‘flash crash’ in early January).In the meantime, the cross needs to surpass the immediate resistance line at 122.55 in order to mitigate downside pressure and allow for a test of monthly peaks above the 123.00 handle.EUR/JPY daily chart  

The European Central Bank's (ECB) vice president Luis de Guindos crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that indicators point to very moderate glo

The European Central Bank's (ECB) vice president Luis de Guindos crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that indicators point to very moderate global growth and the Euro-zone inflation is to deteriorate in the coming months.Key quotes:   •  Euro-area economic risks clearly tilted to the downside.
   •  ECB is prepared to act if deterioration continues.

Piet P. H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that the USD/JPY pair crossed 108 into 107 territory as Mr. Powell is leaning again

Piet P. H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that the USD/JPY pair crossed 108 into 107 territory as Mr. Powell is leaning against the poor cyclical backdrop.Key Quotes“We extrapolate: data is likely to continue showing that a cyclical slowdown is still with us but we expect to meet it by adjusting US yields and the dollar, appropriately. This is exactly what global macro needs to avoid a more gloomy path. Our 3M forecast is 107 but there's clearly downside risk to(wards) 105.”

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the Bank of England meets to set policy and will be a key event for today’s markets. Key Quotes “On paper, th

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the Bank of England meets to set policy and will be a key event for today’s markets.Key Quotes“On paper, this should be a relatively straightforward meeting, and we expect the MPC to broadly reiterate May's (relatively hawkish) tone. That said, risks are clearly two-sided: both Saunders and Haldane have argued for hikes sooner rather than later (and might vote for a hike today), but at the same time, the global backdrop has clearly stagnated, and with political risks elevated alongside the Fed and ECB's dovish pivots, could cast a shadow on the BoE.” “Without forecasts to back them up, though, we think a no-change message is the safe baseline until their August forecast round. MPs whittle down the four final candidates for the PM to just two, with two rounds of voting (morning and afternoon). The final two then begin a month-long campaign to the party membership, who then vote to decide the next PM (with the victor announced 22 July). It's all but certain Boris Johnson is on the final list, with second place going to either Jeremy Hunt or Michael Gove.” “Retail sales data for May is released. Following stellar Q1 retail sales growth, we look for a second consecutive decline, with a fall of 0.4% m/m (mkt: -0.5%).” “Late in the day, Governor Carney delivers his annual Mansion House Speech at 9pm BST. He's sometimes used this platform in the past to update the public on his personal monetary policy views, but other appearances have had little to do with interest rates or the economy at all.”

Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander was out with some comments in the last hour saying that downing of the US drone sends

Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander was out with some comments in the last hour saying that downing of the US drone sends a clear message to Washington. Additional quotes:   •  We do not want a war with any country, but we are ready for it.
   •  We will react strongly to any aggression; borders are the red line.

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets forecasts (6%) in June

UK retail sales Overview The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.5% m/m in May, followin

UK retail sales OverviewThe UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.5% m/m in May, following a 0.0% figure seen in April. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 2.7% over the year in the reported month, down from 5.2% booked previously. Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen declining 0.5% m/m while rising 2.5% y/y.Deviation impact on GBP/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.How could it affect GBP/USD?FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “From a technical perspective, the pair has been in a strong recovery mode over the past couple of trading session and the ongoing momentum could further get extended towards 1.2750-60 heavy supply zone. A convincing break through the mentioned barrier might prompt some additional short-covering move and assist the pair to aim towards reclaiming the 1.2800 round figure mark.” “On the flip side, the 1.2650 region is likely to protect the immediate downside, below which the pair could extend the pullback but now seems more likely to find decent support and defend the 1.2600 round figure mark.,” Haresh adds.Key NotesBoE Preview: Major Banks are forecasting no change in policy today GBP Futures: upside seen losing traction EUR/GBP technical analysis: Sellers keep lurking around 21-HMA, immediate resistance-lineAbout the UK retail salesThe retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Further comments are out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry, citing that China and the US have immense mutual interests. Believe both sides will for s

Further comments are out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry, citing that China and the US have immense mutual interests. Believe both sides will for sure find a way to appropriately resolve problems. We will take all necessary measures if the US imposes additional tariffs on $300b of Chinese goods.

Piet P. H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that EUR/USD pair tested the 1.1250 level on a dovish Fed, which justified the dovi

Piet P. H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, points out that EUR/USD pair tested the 1.1250 level on a dovish Fed, which justified the dovish pricing heading into the meeting.Key Quotes“Fed Chair Powell stressed that the Fed is monitoring the trade talks and needs to see more weak data to pull the trigger. It means that the upcoming G20 meeting, along with upcoming key data releases, i.e. PMIs, ISM, non-farm payrolls etc., will be particularly important for the pricing of upcoming Fed meetings and hence for the direction of the USD.” “We do not see data turning around for the better and see a risk of no breakthrough in trade talks before the next Fed meeting, which means that there is still upside potential for EUR/USD.” “After two days of dovish central banks, we still see a strong case for a higher EUR/USD as the Fed is set to ease more than the ECB. We keep still look for EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 in 3M, although we note that despite large movements in rate markets, EUR/USD has so far had a difficult time breaking out of its long-held range close to 1.12.”

The Dutch PM Rutte is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on a potential no-deal Brexit. Key Quotes: Another Brexit extension would be

The Dutch PM Rutte is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on a potential no-deal Brexit. Key Quotes: Another Brexit extension would be dependent on new PM's plan. If there are no changes to the UK positions, can't see sense in further negotiation. No other solution than current deal, given UK's red lines. Hate the idea of a no-deal Brexit on Oct 31.

At its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday, Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), left its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.00%, m

At its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday, Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), left its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.00%, meeting the market expectations. The latest Reuters poll showed that 19 of 22 analysts polled predicted Bank Indonesia (BI) will hold the benchmark rate at 6.0%, where it has been since November. The remaining three forecasted a 25-basis point rate cut.  The central bank Governor noted that the escalation of trade war affects global economic dynamics, lowering global trade volume and hurting global growth. He added that he sees Q2 GDP growth flattening. Additional Comments: Efforts to support domestic consumption need to be taken to mitigate downside risk of slowing global growth. 2019 economic growth seen below midpoint of 5.0-5.4% outlook range. Q2 surplus in financial accounts in balance of payments seen bigger than initially expected. 2019 C/A seen below 2018's level, in a range of 2.5%-3% of GDP. Y/Y inflation at end-2019 seen below midpoint of 2.5-4.5% target range. There is room to boost credit growth without hurting financial system stability. On the status-quo decision by the Indonesian central bank, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) remained unfazed and kept its range near fresh weekly highs reached against its American counterpart, with the USD/IDR cross looks to attempt a tepid recovery near 14,230 points.USD/IDR Technical Levels“Sustained break of 14,203 support level comprising 100-day simple moving average (SMA) can fetch the quote down to June low near 14,157 and then towards April month bottom around 13,974. On the upside, 21-day SMA at 14,273 and 14,293 comprising 50-day SMA limits the pair’s immediate advances, a break of which can again propel the quote in the direction to 200-DMA level of 14,431,” FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal notes.

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Norges Bank to hike rates for the second time this year as they buck the G10 dovish trend. Key Quotes “The

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Norges Bank to hike rates for the second time this year as they buck the G10 dovish trend.Key Quotes“The domestic economy continues to remain very strong, and while inflation has disappointed slightly since their last meeting, both core and headline inflation remain above target.” “Focus Thursday will be on the Norges Bank's forecast for its next hike, which was forecasted with around 50% probability in their previous forecast round. We expect no change to this forecast, and expect them to eventually defer the hike to early-2020 as global uncertainty lingers.”

China's commerce ministry was out with some official comments in the last hour, confirming that the top US and Chinese trade officials will hold discu

China's commerce ministry was out with some official comments in the last hour, confirming that the top US and Chinese trade officials will hold discussions under instruction from respective leaders.Key quotes:   •  Our stance on trade talks has been consistent and our fundamental demands must be met. 
   •  Trump said during a call with Xi that a solution should be found soon.
   •  The US will hurt its own economy if the trade war continues. 
   •  We hope that the US listens to industry voices and abandons the wrong behaviour of threatening tariffs and waging a trade war.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda, as he continues to speak at the post-meeting press conference, was further noted saying that there is no need

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda, as he continues to speak at the post-meeting press conference, was further noted saying that there is no need to strictly think about bond target range rather will be appropriate to think flexibly on 10-year JGB yields range.Additional quotes:   •  BoJ has had a deep discussion on the global economy.
   •  Sees no change in view of the global economy picking up in 2H 2019.
   •  But BoJ is concerned about protectionism still.
   •  It is possible to keep current low rates beyond the spring of 2020.

Turkey Consumer Confidence climbed from previous 55.3 to 57.6 in June

The ECB governing council member - Olli Rehn added to the earlier comments and said that the Euro area is facing short-term challenges now. The risks

The ECB governing council member - Olli Rehn added to the earlier comments and said that the Euro area is facing short-term challenges now. The risks are mostly linked to trade tensions and the central bank has to be ready to react.

The single currency has regained extra traction in past hours and is now pushing EUR/USD to levels closer to the critical handle at 1.1300 the figure.

EUR/USD gains extra pace and now looks to 1.1300.The greenback remains on the defensive below 97.00.EC’s Consumer Confidence next on the euro docket.The single currency has regained extra traction in past hours and is now pushing EUR/USD to levels closer to the critical handle at 1.1300 the figure.EUR/USD moves higher on USD-sellingThe renewed and strong selling bias surrounding the greenback is once again lifting spot to the vicinity of the 1.1300 mark today. In fact, extra selling pressure in the buck turned up yesterday after the FOMC delivered a dovish message. The Fed has now shifted to a more accommodative stance – in line with its G10 peers -  and opened the door to rate cuts in the near term. However, the continuation of the up move in the pair is expected to be short-lived, as the ECB too is now looking to the possibility of lower rates and/or restarting the QE programme if the outlook on the region worsens and inflation fails to move closer to the bank’s target. Moving forward, the advanced Consumer Confidence gauge by the European Commission is only due in Euroland, while the Philly Fed index, Initial Claims and Current account results are expected across the pond.What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics appear to be dictating the price action around the European currency for the time being, relegating to a secondary role the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Furthermore, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is advancing 0.44% at 1.1275 and a breakout of 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1353 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the downside, immediate contention is located at 1.1181 (low Jun.18) seconded by 1.1176 (monthly low Mar.7) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30).

More comments are flowing in from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda, as he continues to speak at the press conference. Various measures can be c

More comments are flowing in from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda, as he continues to speak at the press conference. Various measures can be considered for further easing if needed. Won't hesitate to ease further if momentum towards 2% price target is lost. Discussed overseas economy trend in detail at policy meeting.

France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0.3%) in 1Q

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Rehn is reported by Reuters, as saying that “I am concerned about the Eurozone economy but we

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Rehn is reported by Reuters, as saying that “I am concerned about the Eurozone economy but we are not forecasting any recession”. He added: “We are ready to act as appropriate unless there is an improvement in economic conditions.”

The USD selling pressure picked up the pace in the last hour, with the USD/JPY pair tumbling to fresh multi-month lows around mid-107.00s. The pair re

The USD weakens after the Fed opened doors for rate cuts by the end of 2019.Bearish traders further took cues from the ongoing slump in the US bond yields.BoJ’s decision to maintain status-quo fails to provide any respite for the bulls.The USD selling pressure picked up the pace in the last hour, with the USD/JPY pair tumbling to fresh multi-month lows around mid-107.00s. The pair remained under intense selling pressure on Thursday and added to the previous session's losses, led by dovish FOMC monetary policy statement. The US central bank left interest rates unchanged but signalled that it was ready to lower interest rates amid increasing uncertainties and receding inflationary pressure.  The US Dollar weakened across the board in reaction to dovish commentary and continued losing ground through the early part of Thursday's trading action. This coupled with the post-FOMC slump in the US Treasury bond yields to multi-year lows kept exerting some heavy downward pressure on the major. The pair failed to gain any respite as bullish traders seemed rather unimpressed by the Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s decision to leave key policy tools unchanged and retained the short-term interest rate target at -0.1% while maintaining the 10-year Japanese government yield target around 0%.   Thursday's strong follow-through weakness could further be attributed to some aggressive technical selling below the 108.00 handle, marking a near-term bearish breakthrough over a one-week-old trading range. Hence, a subsequent downfall, further towards challenging the 107.00 handle, now looks a distinct possibility.Technical levels to watch 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda is on the wires now, via Reuters, addressing the post-monetary policy press conference. Key Headlines: The

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda is on the wires now, via Reuters, addressing the post-monetary policy press conference. Key Headlines: The Japanese economy is expanding moderately as a trend. No change to our stance to achieve 2 pct price target. Expects inflation to gradually pick up towards 2% target. Risks associated with overseas economies are significant. Need to watch for impact on business, consumer sentiment.

Brazil Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (6.5%)

The Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said late-Wednesday that the government plans to cut several different taxes to boost investment

The Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said late-Wednesday that the government plans to cut several different taxes to boost investment and accelerate economic growth amid dwindling growth outlook. Southeast Asia's largest economy in the first quarter expanded 5.07% from a year earlier, missing market expectations. Indrawati said, “Previously announced plans for a "super deductible tax" incentive, that allows a company to deduct its taxes at double the amount it invests in skills training and triple the size of its investment in research and development, will soon be issued.” Bank Indonesia is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision later today at 0700 GMT. USD/IDR trades weaker near 14,217.50, at fresh weekly lows.

Open interest in JPY futures markets decreased by nearly 37.8K contracts on Wednesday, prolonging the choppy activity seen in past weeks. In the same

Open interest in JPY futures markets decreased by nearly 37.8K contracts on Wednesday, prolonging the choppy activity seen in past weeks. In the same direction, volume went down by around 34.5K contracts, also amidst an erratic performance.USD/JPY could bounce and test the 10-day SMA at 108.30USD/JPY is losing ground for the third session in a row today, although declining open interest and volume in the safe haven currency could spark a squeeze higher in the short-term horizon. The duration and extent of this move, however, looks unclear.

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (-0.1%)

Fox News reports the latest comments by a US official, as he confirms the earlier reports that the US drone was downed in international airspace over

Fox News reports the latest comments by a US official, as he confirms the earlier reports that the US drone was downed in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz.

Switzerland Exports (MoM) climbed from previous 19385M to 21485M in May

Switzerland Imports (MoM) up to 18074M in May from previous 17091M

Switzerland Imports (MoM) rose from previous 17091M to 18704M in May

CME Group’s preliminary data for GBP futures markets noted open interest shrunk by almost 35K contracts on Wednesday, reversing five consecutive daily

CME Group’s preliminary data for GBP futures markets noted open interest shrunk by almost 35K contracts on Wednesday, reversing five consecutive daily builds. Volume, instead, increased by nearly 16.1K contracts, clinching the second consecutive build.GBP/USD now targets 1.2750, where it could failCable is extending the weekly up move and is now looking to break above the 1.2700 handle and advance to monthly tops in the mid-1.2700s, where it could lose impulse. The sharp drop in open interest reinforces this view, while rising volume could add some upside momentum.

In view of analysts at Danske Bank, the key event today will be the Norges Bank meeting, where both consensus and Danske are looking for a 25bp rate h

In view of analysts at Danske Bank, the key event today will be the Norges Bank meeting, where both consensus and Danske are looking for a 25bp rate hike.Key Quotes“The Bank of England also meets, but in our view, the bank is firmly on hold. It is one of the small meetings without an updated inflation report or a press conference so we don't expect much change in the bank's message. The UK also releases May retail sales.” “A two-day EU summit starts today, where the main focus will be on potential clarity on the front-runners for the EU Commission presidency, ECB presidency other EU top positions. We will also monitor if the EC will formally open an EDP against Italy. On the data front, we expect Euro area consumer confidence for June to stay unchanged.” “The US Philly Fed survey and initial jobless claims will add to indications of how much the US economy is slowing. The PMI and Empire indices have pointed to weakness.”  

Denmark Consumer Confidence down to 5.8 in June from previous 5.9

Switzerland Trade Balance above expectations (2870M) in May: Actual (3410M)

In addition to flashing fresh weekly high, the GBP/USD pair also clears near-term trend-line resistance as it trades around 1.2693 during early Thursday.

Break of immediate resistance-line favors further upside to 200-bar MA.Overbought RSI might recall sellers if prices dip below 23.6% Fibo.In addition to flashing fresh weekly high, the GBP/USD pair also clears near-term trend-line resistance as it takes the bids around 1.2693 heading into the British market open on Thursday. While a sustained break of 1.2690 resistance-line enables the quote to rise further towards 200-bar moving average (MA) level of 1.2741, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May-June downpour, at 1.2763, may question additional increases. Further, May 21 high of 1.2815 and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2842 can please buyers during a rally past-1.2763. On the downside, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2666 offers immediate support to watch if overbought levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) play its role. In a case where sellers slip in after 1.2666, 1.2610 and May-end low of 1.2560 can entertain them ahead of questioning the declines with the latest bottom close to 1.2500 mark.GBP/USD 4-Hour chartTrend: Bullish 

Today, we have an all-important Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision and as we head closer to the decision timings, here are the expectations

Today, we have an all-important Bank of England (BOE) interest rate decision and as we head closer to the decision timings, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of major banks for the upcoming policy setting meeting.With continued Brexit uncertainty and looming political uncertainty in the UK, the Bank of England is likely to again leave the Bank Rate on hold at 0.75% in its June meeting. In addition, there is some risk that the BOE’s rhetoric in the accompanying statement will become more hawkishTD Securities“The Bank of England meets to set policy. On paper, this should be a relatively straightforward meeting, and we expect the MPC to broadly reiterate May's (relatively hawkish) tone. That said, risks are clearly two-sided: both Saunders and Haldane have argued for hikes sooner rather than later (and might vote for a hike today), but at the same time, the global backdrop has clearly stagnated, and with political risks elevated alongside the Fed and ECB's dovish pivots, could cast a shadow on the BoE.” “Without forecasts to back them up, though, we think a no-change message is the safe baseline until their August forecast round.”Rabobank“We expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% at this week’s meeting.” “The vote is likely to be unanimous still, even as a number of influential MPC members have made some relatively hawkish speeches recently.” “The hawks are focusing on decent wage growth amid low unemployment, but the warnings with regards to rate increases are falling on deaf ears.” “The downside risks resulting from Brexit and trade uncertainties outweigh the upside risks of slightly elevated domestic price pressures. We forecast no rate hikes for this year and next.”CitibankAnalysts at Citigroup argue that the Bank of England (BOE) is likely to refrain from raising interest rates in the coming months amid looming no-deal Brexit risks, which is likely to keep the GBP undermined. “The BOE raised GDP expectations across the forecast horizon earlier. A Brexit deal (or longer extension) is a likely precondition to any hike in 2019. However, the political backdrop remains the biggest risk to GBP.” “We no longer see a Bank Rate hike in August or indeed this year as likely, as no-deal could become a bigger risk quickly, with the dovish wind blowing through global monetary policy. This will likely be GBP-negative.” ING“We expect policymakers to continue hinting that markets are underestimating the risk of further tightening. It's possible that the Bank says this more explicitly within either its statement or set of minutes (released simultaneously) this week, particularly given that market interest rate expectations have completely flattened since the May meeting.” “There is also an outside chance that one or two policymakers vote for an immediate 25bp rate hike at this meeting - Michael Saunders, in particular, has taken a hawkish stance in public recently.”Westpac“We expect that the Bank Rate will again be left on hold at the June meeting. However, there is some risk that the BOE’s rhetoric in the accompanying statement will become more hawkish. The recent weakness in the GBP will boost near term inflation. There have also been hawkish comments from several MPC members despite Brexit related headwinds and related softness in real activity.” “We remain circumspect about the strength of inflation pressures and expect an extended period of subdued GDP growth. As a result, we expect the BOE to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.”Danske Bank“The Bank of England meets, but in our view, the bank is firmly on hold. It is one of the small meetings without an updated inflation report or a press conference so we don't expect much change in the bank's message.”

According to advanced data from CME Group for EUR futures markets, investors trimmed their open interest positions by nearly 54.5K contracts, the larg

According to advanced data from CME Group for EUR futures markets, investors trimmed their open interest positions by nearly 54.5K contracts, the largest single day drop so far this year. In the same direction, volume reversed the previous build and shrunk by more than 77K contracts.EUR/USD expected to resume the downsideEUR/USD is recovering ground lost in past sessions following the softer mood surrounding the greenback. However, further gains in spot looks limited in light of the sharp drop in both open interest and volume.

ANZ analysts point out that they are one of seven, out of 35 research houses, that are expecting a 25bp rate cut at Bank Indonesia's (BI) meeting toda

ANZ analysts point out that they are one of seven, out of 35 research houses, that are expecting a 25bp rate cut at Bank Indonesia's (BI) meeting today.Key Quotes“While today's decision will be a close call, in our view, the question to address is not whether BI would cut rates but how deep the rate cutting cycle would be.” “We see the risks around deposit and lending rates as skewed to the upside, all else equal. Funding composition has slowly changed in favour of market-based financing (now at 13% of customer deposits) and interbank liquidity has tightened.” “The economy will benefit from looser monetary policy. For consideration, our financial conditions index remains in a slightly tight territory and we show that strong bank lending growth in 2018 has come on the back of refinancing requirements, rather than driven by stronger demand.” “Overall, BI's targeted tightening in 2018 has left a few undesirable effects on the growth of banks deposit and the onshore corporate bond market. In the medium term, the trends could risk inhibiting financial intermediation.” “Against this backdrop, the conditions for BI to embark on a rate cutting cycle are converging. We expect a total of 75bps cuts in the next one year.”

FX option expiries for June 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1150 1.8bn 1.1160 733m 1.1185 647m

FX option expiries for June 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1150 1.8bn    1.1160 733m  1.1185 647m  1.1200 898m  1.1225 745m  1.1250 951m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2600 347m 1.2680 379m  1.2690 451m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts 107.00 1.0bn 108.00 1.9bn  108.15 670m  108.35 810m  - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3375 680m   

With the global risk-aversion wave fueling the Gold prices to the highest since March 2014, the yellow metal aims for that year top on early Thursday.

A successful break of 2016 top favors the bulls towards targeting 2014 high.Overbought RSI can trigger the pullback moves.With the global risk-aversion wave fueling the Gold prices to the highest since March 2014, the yellow metal aims for that year top during additional upside as it takes the bids around $1379.65 ahead of the Europe markets open on Thursday. While $1392.30 is likely immediate cap for the yellow metal, buyers might not refrain from targeting $1,400 round-figure and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2012-16 downturn, at $1421.22, during further upside. If at all overbought levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) triggers the bullion’s profit-booking, January 2018 high near $1366 and February month tops around $1346.85 can please short-term sellers. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s downside past-$1346.85 may diver bears towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $1332.76 rest-point.Gold: Weekly chartTrend: Pullback expected  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is losing further ground and trades below the key support

The index trades in session lows in the 96.90 region.FOMC opened the door to rate cuts in the next months.Philly Fed index, Initial Claims, Current Account next on tap.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is losing further ground and trades below the key support at 97.00 the figure.US Dollar Index loses momentum post-FOMCThe index is navigating the area of multi-day lows in the sub-97.00 region ahead of the opening bell in Euroland amidst declining US yields, as market participants continue to digest Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Yesterday, the FOMC left unchanged the Feds Funds Target Range at 2.25%-2.50%, although it removed the ‘patient’ stance from the statement to describe the Fed’s view on monetary policy. Furthermore, there was a majority of members who favoured an interest rate cut this year and one member still advocating for a rate hike in 2019. At his press conference, Chief J.Powell noted that an accommodative stance appears to be gaining traction among members. Despite rate cuts are now a palpable option - with the occurrence of such a move in July gaining some momentum – the case for a weaker greenback in the near-to-medium term looks less clear against the backdrop of the generalized twist to a looser stance from the Fed’s peers in the G-10 space and the so far outperformance of the US fundamentals vs. the majority of developed economies.What to look for around USDThe Federal Reserve is not ‘patient’ anymore, and rate cuts have already emerged on the horizon (likely to be delivered at the September and/or December meeting), while an ‘insurance cut’ could come as early as July. Compared with other central banks, the Fed has more room to manoeuvre in case it goes ‘full accommodative’ in the next months (due to the hiking cycle that started in 2015). If we add that the US economy is healthier than its overseas peers, the greenback’s status of ‘global reserve currency’ and its safe haven appeal, further weakness in the buck is far from a done deal.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.33% at 96.91 and a breach of 96.46 (low Jun.7) would open the door for 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28). On the other hand, the next up barrier emerges at 97.80 (monthly high Jun.3) seconded by 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 27).

According to the various Chinese state news agency, the upcoming trade talks between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi ahead of th

According to the various Chinese state news agency, the upcoming trade talks between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi ahead of the G20 Summit next week are unlikely to immediately resolve major disagreements between the two sides, Reuters reports. However, the talks could restart a new phase in negotiations. The official China Daily said in an editorial, Both parties are “in the mood for serious dialogue” as a full-blown trade war was “lose-lose” but one single meeting is unlikely to wrap everything up. The two parties’ expectations are too divergent to allow that.” “More likely than not, the one-on-one meeting will end up being the start of a new phase in the negotiations with the two leaders personally setting out their country’s respective bottom lines,” the paper added. The ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily noted: “Negotiation outcomes are not often obtained through talks, but through fights. If desiring a good negotiation result, China must persist and not fear.”  “As trade between China and the U.S. is highly likely to continue, the two countries may eventually reach an agreement. But China will not be impatient or afraid of setbacks,” it said.

Danske Bank analysts point out that with the moderating US growth, inflation expectations have fallen and uncertainties have increased, the Fed now sa

Danske Bank analysts point out that with the moderating US growth, inflation expectations have fallen and uncertainties have increased, the Fed now says it "will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion".Key Quotes“We stick to our view that the Fed will cut rates in July by 25bp and deliver a total of 75bp of rate cuts in the second half of 2019 (July, September and December). The trade war is an important risk to our outlook in both directions.” “After two days of dovish central banks, we still see a strong case for a higher EUR/USD and lower USD/JPY as the Fed is set to ease more than other central banks.”

Miles Workman, senior economist at ANZ, points out that the New Zealand economy expanded 0.6% q/q in Q1, which was in line with market expectations, b

Miles Workman, senior economist at ANZ, points out that the New Zealand economy expanded 0.6% q/q in Q1, which was in line with market expectations, but stronger than the 0.4% we were expecting.Key Quotes“The New Zealand economy grew 0.6% q/q in the first three months of 2019, a touch stronger than the 0.4% we had pencilled in but in line with market expectations. Revisions to history mean annual growth has been running a little stronger than previously thought, but the story of slowing momentum remains intact. That said, annual growth at 2.5% was unchanged from Q4.” “Today’s print was also stronger than the RBNZ’s May MPS forecast for growth of 0.4% q/q, which at the time was a significant downward revision from their previous estimate. However, despite the slight positive surprise (including the fact annual growth was stable in Q1), the real test for the RBNZ’s outlook won’t occur until the forward-looking indicators for growth in the second half of the year begin to roll in. That’s because the RBNZ are forecasting quite a strong pickup in economic momentum that we think is on the optimistic side.” “The details of today’s release were not as strong as the headline number suggests. In particular, services industries posted a very weak 0.2% q/q lift, following Q4’s robust 0.9% increase.” “It’s become increasingly clear that momentum in the services industries has softened, with annual growth of 2.5% in Q1 a decent cooldown versus 3.6% this time last year.” “The nominal economy grew 1.2%, a little faster than its real counterpart owing to lifting prices, including a lift in the terms of trade.”

Despite bouncing off near-term important support-zone, the EUR/GBP pair fails to cross the key resistance-confluence on early Thursday.

Nearby resistance confluence challenges the latest U-turn from horizontal support.100-HMA can please buyers during upside break while sellers can aim for 0.8850 during extra declines.Despite bouncing off near-term important support-zone, the EUR/GBP pair fails to cross the key resistance-confluence comprising 21-HMA and 2-day long trend-line, as it trades near 0.8885 while heading into the European open on Thursday. With the strength of upside barriers joining normal levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI), prices are more likely to break 0.8871/74 horizontal-support than rising over 0.8889/90 resistance-confluence. In that case, low of June 07, near 0.8850, can offer an intermediate halt to the pair’s downpour towards 0.8828 rest-point. If at all buyers take control and fuel the quote beyond 0.8890, 100-hour moving average (HMA) near 0.8915, followed by 0.8935, could be their next targets. However, current month high around 0.8976 is likely a tough nut to crack for the bulls that hold the key to 0.9000 round-figure.EUR/GBP hourly chartTrend: Bearish  

Elliot Clarke, senior economist at Westpac, points out that at the June meeting, the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy shifted materially and while the

Elliot Clarke, senior economist at Westpac, points out that at the June meeting, the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy shifted materially and while their core view of the economy remains constructive, “uncertainties” now dominate. Key Quotes“Beginning with the core view, it clearly remains constructive. The only real economy forecast to see material revision in June was the 2019 inflation view, which was revised down from 1.8% to 1.5%.” “There was also essentially no change in the GDP forecasts, with above-trend growth still seen across the forecast horizon, while the unemployment rate forecasts were actually marked a touch lower – despite May’s material disappointment for nonfarm payrolls.” “That seven participants now see two cuts in the federal funds rate by year end, and another member one cut, highlights the above core view has slipped into the background.” “To the downside, there is a material risk that, after the Osaka G20 meeting, President Trump extends the 25% tariff to the remaining $300bn of US imports from China. Given the soft state of US investment and fragile confidence amongst business, under such a scenario, the FOMC could easily justify bringing forward the first cut to July and showing stronger concern over the outlook. The risk of the imposition of this tariff soon after could also see the FOMC act in July.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klass Knot is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that the central bank actively thinks abo

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klass Knot is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that the central bank actively thinks about 'emergency plans' in case growth doesn't pick up.

Broad-based US dollar weakness remained the main underlying theme in Asia on Thursday, as the greenback extended its post-dovish FOMC slide versus its

Broad-based US dollar weakness remained the main underlying theme in Asia on Thursday, as the greenback extended its post-dovish FOMC slide versus its main competitors. The USD index hit fresh six-week lows at 96.86 after 10-year Treasury yields dropped below the 2% level, its lowest since November 2016. The US Federal Reserve, on Wednesday, kept rates on-hold but suggested probable interest rate cuts in the future, citing rising “uncertainties” about the economic outlook. Gold prices on Comex rallied to fresh 15-month highs at 1395.35 on hopes that an era of lower interest rates will be back in play. The traditional safe-haven also drew support from the escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions, which also collaborated to the USD/JPY declines. The spot hit fresh 5-month lows near mid-107s on falling Treasury yields and amid the absence of any dovish surprises from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ kept its monetary policy settings unchanged, as widely expected. The Kiwi was the biggest gainer this session, having surged to 0.6580 levels on upbeat New Zealand’s Q1 growth figures while the AUD/USD pair consolidated the latest upmove just under the 0.69 handle, as the bulls lost vigor following the dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe. Meanwhile, the rest of the majors held onto strong overnight gains amid broad USD softness. The Loonie further benefited from the oil-price rally, as WTI remained poised to regain the 55 handle. Main Topics in Asia New Zealand GDP: Quarterly rise 0.6% (2.5% annual/a beat Trump believes he has the authority to replace Powell at Fed US 10-year treasury yield drops below 2% Market-based measures of US inflation rise as Fed hints at rate cuts Goldman Sachs: Fed to cut rates in September and December Gold rallies into blue skies as US yields drop to lowest since 2017 USD/IDR drops to 100-day SMA ahead of Bank Indonesia rate decision WTI prices are 0.50% higher as dollar bleeds out RBA Bulletin examines the exchange rate on a China slowdown US Pres. Trump: It’s important to have good relationships with China and Russia RBA’s Lowe: "Not unrealistic" to expect a further reduction in the cash rate RBA’s Lowe: Upside risk on inflation are very remote BOJ keeps policy unchanged, as widely expected BOJ: Downside risks on overseas economies high White House: US is closely monitoring situation on missile strikes into Saudi Arabia Iran shoots down US spy drone - Sepah News China Premier Li: China will maintain its long-standing commitment to reform and opening up Key Focus Ahead Another eventful EUR macro calendar is awaiting the traders this Thursday, with the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision and its meeting’s minutes to headline. The BOE decision and the minutes will be published at 1100 GMT. The central bank is widely expected to keep the rates on hold and could switch to a dovish bias amid looming no-deal Brexit risks, global economic slowdown and dovish global central banks.  Ahead of the BOE event, the focus will remain on the BOJ Governor Kuroda’s post-policy presser, Swiss trade data and the Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy decision. Also of note remains the UK retail sales data, due at 0830 GMT, which is expected to show a sharp decline in consumer spending in the month of May. At 0900 GMT, the ECB Economic Bulletin will be eyed for fresh EUR moves, as there is no relevant data on the cards from Euroland. The NA session also sees a fresh batch of US economic data due at 1230 GMT, including the weekly Jobless Claims, Q1 Current Account and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. At the same time, the Canadian ADP Employment Change numbers will be published. Later at 1400 GMT, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence gauge will drop in and is expected to hold steady at -6.5. Towards NY close (at 2000 GMT), the BOE Governor Carney will be seen speaking at the Mansion House dinner, in London. EUR/USD rises above 200-HMA as US two-year yield hits lowest since November 2017 EUR/USD has cleared key resistance and may rise further in the European and US session, tracking the slide in Treasury yields, although bullish reversal may remain elusive as markets are now priced in for Fed rate cuts. GBP/USD rises to 1-week high ahead of UK retail sales, BOE With the US Dollar’s (USD) across the board slump offering additional strength to rest of the major currencies, the GBP/USD pair extended the previous rise towards one week high ahead of the London open. Focus on UK retail sales and BOE monetary policy decision. Indonesia: Bank Indonesia likely to maintain status quo - TDS Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, expects no change from Bank Indonesia, with the 7d reverse repo likely to be maintained at 6% on Thursday 20th June, but think this meeting is a much closer call than recent ones. Bank of England Rate Decision Preview: The Fed example Bank of England expected to leave its bank rate at 0.75%. Monetary Policy Committee anticipated to maintain its rate hike bias. The bank will face market skepticism over tightening policy.    

While Fed’s readiness to respect the other central bank doves initially set the stage for Asian shares’ increase, risk-off confines the rally on early Thursday.

Global run towards easy monetary policy directs market moves.Other than BOE and BI, political plays surrounding the US, China and Iran should also gain major market attention.While Fed’s readiness to respect the other central bank doves initially set the stage for Asian shares’ increase, statements favoring rate cuts from the BOJ and RBA’s Lowe further strengthened the stocks. Though, fears of global recession and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran stopped the rally. The US Federal Reserve finally dropped its favorite term “patience” from the rate statement that pushed investors to ignore mostly neutral statements from the Chairman Jerome Powell in search of clues for a rate cut during 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe were also dovish enough to trigger risk-off waves later on. With this, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan is close to 1.0% while Japan’s Nikkei is currently adding 0.7% by the time of writing. China’s Hang Seng praised the US President Donald Trump’s latest readiness to have good relations with the dragon nation by flashing more than 1.0% gain whereas Australia’s ASX 200 in currently gaining 0.33%. Furthermore, India’s BSE Sensex adds 0.20% but New Zealand’s NZX50 and Indonesia’s
Jakarta Composite Index seems to buck the trend. Global risk barometer, the US 10-year treasury yield dropped to 1.987%, the lowest since November 2016. Given the risk tone likely being the major catalyst of the day, political plays should be given an upper hand over the economic calendar. However, monetary policy decisions from the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank Indonesia (BI) could gain additional attention after the latest bear play.

David Plank, head of Australian economics at ANZ, points out that the RBA Governor spoke on The Labour Market and Spare Capacity at a CEDA event in Ad

David Plank, head of Australian economics at ANZ, points out that the RBA Governor spoke on The Labour Market and Spare Capacity at a CEDA event in Adelaide on 20 June and the critical takeaway from a monetary policy perspective is that the cash rate is heading lower.Key Quotes“We already knew this, of course, and the speech does not add much to our understanding of the speed or extent of the coming rate cuts. But clearly there is a very real chance the cash rate is cut in both July and August given the RBA’s assessment that “we are not making any inroads into the economy’s spare capacity.” “The balance of the Governor’s speech was about how the RBA assesses the “degree of spare capacity in the Australian labour market.” The Governor looked at four perspectives:  rates of unemployment and underemployment; the flexibility of labour supply; matching people with job vacancies; and trends in wages growth.” “The Governor concluded “with a few words on monetary policy.” These conclusions largely repeated comments made previously.” “Turning back to the body of the speech, he highlighted the strong rise in part-time employment as an important structural shift in the Australian labour market that had implications for the level of labour market capacity. He also noted the improvement in labour supply, ie higher participation. NZ was seen as an important “source of flexibility” on the supply side. While these factors pointed to more slack, evidence of increasing job mismatch was evident with “almost 60 per cent of firms reporting that the availability of labour is either a minor or a major constraint on their business.” “Finally, wage growth has been subdued. His key conclusion is that “there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market” with “the one caveat to this assessment [being] the difficulty that some firms are having finding workers with the necessary skills.”

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.7%) in April

Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac, notes that the New Zealand’s GDP rose by 0.6% in the March quarter, in line with market forecasts. Key Qu

Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac, notes that the New Zealand’s GDP rose by 0.6% in the March quarter, in line with market forecasts.Key Quotes“The New Zealand economy expanded by 0.6% in the March quarter, which was in line with our view and with market forecasts. There were some small upward revisions to the previous two quarters, which lifted the annual growth rate to a slightly stronger than expected 2.5%.” “There were strong gains in construction, mining and food manufacturing, though the risk is that some of these gains are reversed in the next quarter.” “Growth in the service sectors was subdued in most cases.” “Today’s result was ahead of the Reserve Bank’s already-low forecast, and should be enough to leave it in data watching mode for now.”

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M): 3.3% (May)

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume up to 1.8% in April from previous 1.1%

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj climbed from previous -3 to 0 in June

With the US Dollar’s (USD) across the board slump offering additional strength to rest of the major currencies, the GBP/USD pair extended the previous advances.

USD’s plummets as markets turn risk-averse expecting bears to dominate global monetary policy.UK retail sales, BOE and political plays at home will direct near-term trade sentiment.With the US Dollar’s (USD) across the board slump offering additional strength to rest of the major currencies, the GBP/USD pair extended the previous rise towards one week high of 1.2690 ahead of the London open. Traders may now watch over May month retail sales from the UK and the BOE’s monetary policy decision, while simultaneously observing British politics, for fresh impulse. Not only FOMC’s refrain from signaling monetary policy “patience” but a downward revision to inflation forecast and fresh dot-plot inflated chances of a rate cut from the US central bank. With this, it joined rest of the central bankers who are on the bearish stand citing challenges to global economic growth. Adding to the FOMC-led declines of the USD could be the latest risk aversion wave that dragged the US 10-year treasury yields to sub-2.0% level for the first time since November 2016. On the other hand, the British Pound (GBP) benefited from receding political uncertainty at home as the front runner Boris Johnson comes closer to being the UK Prime Minister. Retail sales, the key to British GDP, may contract -0.5% from 0.0% on a monthly basis while likely citing 2.7% growth versus 5.2% prior on YoY format. The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to keep its monetary policy intact but might not avoid joining the bear chorus of global central banks sometime during later 2019. At the political front, the final round of Tory-voting will deliver 2 candidates for the British PM today. During next-week postal votes will be called from rest of the conservatives, around 160,000. The US has fewer catalysts remaining than the initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey result. The jobless claims might soften to 220K from 222K during the week ended on June 14 while the manufacturing gauge could decline to 11.0 from 16.6 previous readouts.Technical AnalysisWith its sustained trading above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), month’s high around 1.2765 and 50-day SMA level of 1.2830 will be next on the bull’s radar. Alternatively, a downside break of 1.2660 can drag the quote towards 1.2610 and then to 1.2580 numbers to the south.

Further comments are out from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe, citing: Rate cuts have a lesser impact than in the past But cuts stil

Further comments are out from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe, citing: Rate cuts have a lesser impact than in the past. But cuts still effective. Upside risk on inflation are very remote.

Following the dovish reiteration by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe earlier today, markets are now pricing in the odds of a July rat

Following the dovish reiteration by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe earlier today, markets are now pricing in the odds of a July rate cut above 70% when compared to a 50% chance before his speech. Lowe said it is not unrealistic to expect a further reduction in interest rates as there is considerable spare capacity in the labor market despite strong jobs growth.  Meanwhile, the Aussie continues to remain in a consolidative mode just below the 0.69 handle, as the dollar bleeds out post dovish FOMC.

EUR/USD has cleared key resistance and may rise further in the European and US session, tracking the slide in Treasury yields, although bullish revers

EUR/USD has pierced the 200-hour moving average (HMA) resistance.Dovish Fed is weighing over US yields.US two-year yield has hit a 19-month low.EUR/USD has cleared key resistance and may rise further in the European and US session, tracking the slide in Treasury yields, although bullish reversal may remain elusive as markets are now priced in for Fed rate cuts. The shared currency found acceptance above the 200-hour moving average of 1.1265 a few minutes before press time and has retraced 50 percent of the drop from 1.1348 to 1.1181. The rise could be associated with the broad-based US Dollar sell-off triggered by the US Federal Reserve's dovish forward guidance on interest rates and the resulting losses in treasury yields. The two-year Treasury yield, which tracks short-term interest rate expectations, fell to 1.711% in Asia, the lowest level since Nov. 20, 2017. The yield may extend losses in Europe, helping EUR/USD rise further toward 1.13. That said, the EUR bulls will likely have a tough time forcing a bull breakout above the recent high of 1.1348, as the money markets are fully priced in for a Fed rate cut in July. Further, the markets have almost priced in another rate cut before the year-end. The fact that the two-year yield is down 23 basis points on a month-to-date basis and 90 basis points on a year-to-date basis also indicate the markets have largely priced in additional easing. As a result, the upside in EUR/USD looks limited. The pair's break above the 200-hour MA could be short-lived if gold rally stalls and the American dollar starts recovering ground against China's Yuan. As of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1270, representing 0.40% gains on the day.Technical Levels 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe is back on the wires now, via Reuters, responding to the Q & A session following his earlier speech.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe is back on the wires now, via Reuters, responding to the Q & A session following his earlier speech.Key Points:Economy needs to be on a better path than we're on. Very hopeful we will not need to cut as far as some central banks in Europe. Sees some positives for the economy, terms of trade. Fiscal policy is important as well.

Reuters reports the latest comments crossing the wires from the Chinese Premier Li, with the key headlines found below. China will maintain its long s

Reuters reports the latest comments crossing the wires from the Chinese Premier Li, with the key headlines found below. China will maintain its long-standing commitment to reform and opening up. We will relax restrictions on access to even more fields. China will create a market-oriented, law-based business environment.

The Societe Generale Analysts offer a detailed preview of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision that will be announced on Thursday at 110

The Societe Generale Analysts offer a detailed preview of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision that will be announced on Thursday at 1100 GMT alongside the minutes of the meeting. Key Quotes: “In recent days, several MPC members have made comments that imply that they might soon be ready to vote for a rate increase. That seems to be based mainly on the state of the labor market. We accept that the temperature of that market is rising.  However, the upside risks to inflation that this implies should be considered against the background of the escalating trade war and the serious risk of heightened Brexit uncertainty in the autumn when a new leader of the Conservative party starts to put into practice what is likely to be a harder stance towards the EU.  So, despite some hawkish MPC comments, the MPC is likely once again to vote unanimously for unchanged policy at this week's meeting.  Our forecast is that the next move in rates will be downward, not upward, and will come in the second half of next year as the US enters a mild recession. Moreover, this already-dovish forecast is made on the assumption that a No Deal is avoided. If not, then easing should be earlier and more aggressive than in our base case.”

AUD/JPY declines as BOJ’s s sustained support for easy monetary policy and hints of another rate cut from RBA’s Lowe join previous risk aversion mood.

Easy BOJ, hints of rate cuts from RBA’s Lowe and FOMC continues to favor risk aversion.Press conference by the BOJ’s Kuroda will be on the spotlight for fresh impulse.With the BOJ’s s sustained support for easy monetary policy and hints of another rate cut from RBA’s Lowe joining the previous risk aversion mood, the AUD/JPY dropped to 74.13 before taking the rounds near 74.18 during early Thursday. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held its monetary policy unchanged with -0.10% interest rates while targeting 0.0% from 10-year Japanese government bond yields. The central bank cited macro risk to be the main factor towards expecting no rate change at least through early 2020. On the other hand, Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe was also on wires while speaking at the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia luncheon, in Adelaide. Mr. Lowe said its "not unrealistic" to expect a further reduction in the cash rate and added that its "Unrealistic" to think one 1/4 point rate cut can alter growth path. With this, speculations of further rate cuts from RBA unearthed and dragged the Australian Dollar (AUD) down. Other than BOJ and RBA’s Lowe, market sentiment remains tilted towards risk-off as Fed’s dovish tone joins the chorus of central bank bears amid expectations of weakness in global economic growth. Adding to the risk aversion could be on-going US-Iran tussle where the US added 1,000 troops to its forces in the Middle East while latest news from Iran claims that the OPEC member downed one of the US drone. On the contrary, the US President’s latest positive statement to have good relations with China and Russia during the FOX interview gained little attention from the global markets. While political news may keep directing short-term trade moves, press conference from the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can be observed for fresh immediate direction.Technical AnalysisCurrent month low near 73.92 acts as immediate support with 14-day relative strength index (RSI) being in the oversold territory, a break of which can recall 73.00 ahead of diverting the moves to the year 2016 bottom of 72.40. Meanwhile, 74.80 and 75.00 can restrict the pair’s immediate upside before highlighting 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 75.27.

Iran is reportedly claiming that it has shot down a US RQ-4 drone flying above Hormuzgan province. So far, the news has not had any major impact on th

Iran has reportedly shot down a US RQ-4 drone flying above Hormuzgan province. So far, the news has not had any major impact on the markets. The USD/JPY pair continues to trade at session lows near 107.60 seen before press time. Iran-US tensions have escalated recently with Trump ordering 1,000 more troops to the Middle East amid accusations that Iran ws behind the strikes on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

USD/JPY continues to trade in the red near 107.60 following Bank of Japan (BOJ's) decision to keep key policy tools unchanged. The central bank retain

Bank of Japan (BOJ) offered little hawkish/dovish surprises.USD/JPY remains on the defensive after BOJ. Focus remains on treasury yieldsUSD/JPY continues to trade in the red near 107.60 following Bank of Japan (BOJ's) decision to keep key policy tools unchanged. The central bank retained the short-term interest rate target at -0.1% as expected while maintaining the 10-year Japanese government yield target around 0%.  The bank reiterated that it intends to keep the current extremely low-interest rate environment at least through spring 2020 and mentioned external developments as a key risk to the Japanese economy. All-in-all, the monetary policy statement and the rate decision offered no hawkish or dovish surprise, as expected, leaving the pair at the mercy of the developments in the US bond markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell below 2 percent earlier today to hit the lowest level since 216, as the Federal Reserve opened the doors to rate cuts in the second half of this year. As a result, the greenback was offered across the board in early Asia and continues to trade on the defensive. With treasury yields looking south, the pair looks set to print fresh session lows below the Jan. 4 low of 107.51.Technical Levels 

The White House is out with a statement following a power station was hit by a missile fired from Yemen earlier today. The US is closely monitoring si

The White House is out with a statement following a power station was hit by a missile fired from Yemen earlier today.The US is closely monitoring situation re missile strikes into Saudi Arabia, the White House said.

Reuters reports the following headlines on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) economic assessment. Japan's economy is expanding moderately as a trend although

Reuters reports the following headlines on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) economic assessment. Japan's economy is expanding moderately as a trend although exports, output affected by the overseas slowdown, keeps assessment unchanged. Japan’s economy likely to continue expanding moderately as a trend. Downside risks on overseas economies high. Must watch how downside risks on overseas economies could affect Japan’s corporate, household sentiment. Exports, output have shown some weaknesses.

AUD/USD is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 0.6890, having hit a high of 0.6907 earlier today on the back of broad-based US Dollar se

AUD/USD has barely moved in response dovish comments by RBA's Lowe.Markets are fully priced for two RBA rate cuts before the year-end.AUD/USD is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 0.6890, having hit a high of 0.6907 earlier today on the back of broad-based US Dollar sell-off. The pair began losing altitude at 01:10 GMT and fell by 10 pips to 0.8883 in the last few minutes, courtesy of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe's dovish talk. The central chief said it is not unrealistic to expect a further reduction in interest rates as there is considerable spare capacity in the labor market despite strong jobs growth. Lowe also stressed the need for a fiscal boost and structural reforms. Lowe's comments have come two days after the RBA's June meeting minute confirmed further rate cuts. The central bank reduced rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% earlier this month and the markets are fully priced in for two more rate cuts before the year-end. As a result, Lowe's take on interest rates is hardly a surprise for the markets. Therefore, the AUD may move back to session highs above 0.69, especially if Treasury yields continue to slide. As of writing, the 10-year US yield is seen at 2 percent, the lowest level since 2016.Technical Levels   

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concluded its 2-day June monetary policy review meeting and made no changes to its monetary policy settings, hold

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concluded its 2-day June monetary policy review meeting and made no changes to its monetary policy settings, holding rates at -10bps while maintaining 10yr JGB yield target at 0.00%. The BOJ vote was 8 to 1, leaving its pledge to buy JGBs unchanged so that its holdings increase at an annual pace of around 80 trln yen. The decision on maintaining its interest rate targets was made by a 7-2 vote with board members Goushi Kataoka and Yutaka Harada dissenting. The central bank did not modified its forward guidance, adopted in April that said "will keep very low-interest rates levels for extended period of time at least through around spring 2020."

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech about the labor markets and spar

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech about the labor markets and spare capacity, at the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia luncheon, in Adelaide. Key Headlines: Possibility of lower interest rates remains on the table. "Not unrealistic" to expect a further reduction in the cash rate. "Unrealistic" to think one 1/4 point rate cut can alter growth path. Lower rates to help through effect on A$, disposable incomes and financing costs. Recent data suggest we are not making any inroads into economy’s spare capacity. Important to recognize monetary policy is not the only option. Options include fiscal and infrastructure spending, structural reform. Economy can sustain faster jobs growth, lower unemployment rate than previously. Considerable spare capacity in labor market, despite strong jobs growth. Remains short of full employment, need jobless rate around 4.5%. Underutilization rate around 8.1%, shows more spare capacity than unemployment alone. Rise in participation is positive, but one reason for subdued wage growth.

Jeffrey Gundlach, Wall Street's bond king and Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DoubleLine, expresses his afterthoughts on the dovish FOMC decisi

Jeffrey Gundlach, Wall Street's bond king and Founder and Chief Executive Officer of DoubleLine, expresses his afterthoughts on the dovish FOMC decision and its implications on the US economy. Key Headlines: Bond market has been saying that the Fed's policy is too tight by a very large amount for the past several weeks, if not few months, and the Fed simply cannot ignore that. A lot of people think if the Fed eases it'll be an insurance policy against recession. But if past patterns are prologue, if we actually start steepening out the yield curve from an inversion three months to 10 years, that's actually highly coincidental with the coming recession. Fed message today was essentially: the case for easing has strengthened, we hope that changes soon, if it doesn't we're behind the curve. If the economy goes into recession and he (Trump) can't pull out by removing the tariffs, there's very little for him to run on.

The weakness in the US treasury yields and the resulting broad-based US Dollar sell-off is boding well for EUR/USD. As of writing, the pair is trading

EUR/USD has jumped to the 200-hour MA hurdle in Asia. With US yields sinking, the pair may take out the MA resistance. The weakness in the US treasury yields and the resulting broad-based US Dollar sell-off is boding well for EUR/USD. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1260, representing 0.33% gains on the day, having tested the 200-hour moving average (MA) hurdle of 1.1266 soon before press time. The US Federal Reserve stood pat on Wednesday but signaled possible rate cuts of as much as half a percentage point over the next six months. As a result, the US treasury yields are fast long ground. The 10-year yield has dropped below 2 percent for the first time since November 2016 and the 30-year yield has printed lows below 2.5% for the first time October 2016. The slide in the treasury yields and rising odds of Fed rate cuts in September and December could continue to weigh over the US Dollar during the day ahead. The EUR/USD pair could break above the 200-hour MA and challenge the psychological hurdle of 1.13. That said, the outlook as per the daily chart would turn bullish only after the pair finds acceptance above the recent high of 1.1348. Hourly chartTrend: intraday bullishTechnical levels 

With WTI increase adding further downside pressure into the post-Fed declines of the USD/CAD pair, the quote seesaws near 15-week low on early Thursday.

Bears benefit from upbeat Canadian data, dovish Fed and WTI strength.Second-tier US and Canadian economics can direct immediate moves.Optimism at trade front also plays positive tune for the CAD.With WTI increase adding further downside pressure into the post-Fed declines of the USD/CAD pair, the quote seesaws near 15-week low while taking the rounds of 1.3255 during early Thursday. Upbeat Canadian consumer price index (CPI) numbers and higher than forecast contraction in the EIA US crude oil stocks provided initial strength to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) during Wednesday. The declines were stretched after the US Federal Reserve increases the chances of a rate cut and dragged the US Dollar (USD) further to south. Carrying the move forward was market’s risk-off sentiment during early Thursday that fetched the 10-year US treasury yields to sub-2.0% level for the first time since November 2016. It should also be noted that optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal adds strength into the CAD as all commodity-linked currency (including CAD) are likely to benefit from the positive news for China. Traders may now look for Canada’s May month ADP employment change and the US weekly initial jobless claims for further direction. While the Canadian employment stat rose to 61.7K during its previous release, the US unemployment claims may soften to 220K from 222K during the week ended on June 14.Technical AnalysisSellers may wait for a sustained break below late-February highs near 1.3245 to target 1.3180 and February month low around 1.3113. Alternatively, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3281 can keep limiting the pair’s near-term advances, a break of which may trigger fresh upside to 1.3355 comprising 100-day SMA and then towards current week’s high of 1.3434.

NZD/USD is solidly bid this Thursday morning in Asia, courtesy of the US Federal Reserve's dovish forward guidance on interest rates and the resulting

NZD/USD has recovered 50% of the recent drop.The Asian session gains are backed by rising NZ-US yield spread.NZD/USD is solidly bid this Thursday morning in Asia, courtesy of the US Federal Reserve's dovish forward guidance on interest rates and the resulting rise in the New Zealand (NZ)-US bond yield differentials. The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6568, representing 0.50% gains on the day, having hit a high of 0.6582 earlier today. More importantly, the Kiwi has retraced nearly 50% of the drop from the June 7 high of 0.6681 to the low of 0.6487 seen on June 14. The uptick is backed by the NZD-bullish developments in the bond markets. For instance, the spread between the yields on the 10-year NZ and US government bonds is currently seen at -41 basis points – up 7 basis points from Wednesday's low of -0.47 basis points. Looking forward, a break above 0.6681 is needed to confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change. Daily chartTrend: Bullish reversal above 0.6681Pivot levels 

The US President Trump is on the wires now, talking about the US-China relationship in his interview with Fox News. Key Headlines: It’s important to h

The US President Trump is on the wires now, talking about the US-China relationship in his interview with Fox News. Key Headlines: It’s important to have good relationships with China and Russia. Will meet with Putin at the G20 summit next week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is out with its June quarter Bulletin, with the key highlights found below. One of the articles examines the spill

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is out with its June quarter Bulletin, with the key highlights found below. One of the articles examines the spillovers to Australia from the Chinese Economy. There are very strong links between the two economies. And thus, the question of how a sizeable slowdown in Chinese activity would affect Australia is examined.

Despite its gradual recoveries from 0.6831, the AUD/USD pair is still to cross 50-bar moving average (4H 50MA) on early Thursday.

Near-term moving average limits the pair’s recovery towards the key MA confluence.RSI also portray less support for additional upside.Despite its gradual recoveries from 0.6831, the AUD/USD pair is still to cross 50-bar moving average as it trades near 0.6895 amid initial Asian session on Thursday. On the break of 0.6906 figure comprising 50-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (4H 50MA), the pair can rush towards confronting 0.6931/33 resistance-confluence that includes 100 and 200 moving averages (MAs). During the quote’s additional upside past-0.6933, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of mid-April to early-June decline, at 0.6975, followed by 9-week old descending trend-line around 0.6979/80, seems key resistances to watch. Meanwhile, 0.6860 and 0.6830 act as nearby supports for the pair ahead of shifting the spotlight to 0.6800 round-figure. It should also be noted that 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is gradually rising towards the overbought territory and might compress further upside.AUD/USD 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected 

West Texas Intermediate crude prices recovered from lowe levels ahead of the FOMC meeting overnight whereby the Energy Information Administration repo

WTI holds in positive territory following a dovish FOMC outcome. Energy Information Administration reported crude supplies dropped by 3.1 million barrels.West Texas Intermediate crude prices recovered from lowe levels ahead of the  FOMC meeting overnight whereby the Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude supplies dropped by 3.1 million barrels for the week ended June 14 following two consecutive weeks of gains. For July delivery, WTI fell 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $53.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, spot WTI  recovered some ground and ended the NY session at 54.19 and higher by 0.26%as the dollar bleeds following a dovish outcome from the Fed as follows:  The FOMC meeting main takeaways: Interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at 2.35%. Benchmark interest rate unchanged; target range stands at 2.25-2.50%. Drops language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments. Uncertainties have increased regarding outlook for sustained economic expansion. 9:1 policy vote, Fed's Bullard dissented because he wanted a rate cut. To act as appropriate to sustain econ. expansion with a strong labour market, inflation near target. Economic activity is rising at a moderate rate. Household spending appears to have picked up but business fixed investment has been soft.WTI levelsWTI climbed through the 20-HR EMA, supported at the 50-HR EMA and remains better bid for the month of June so far having climbed from a low of 50.59 at the start of the month. However, the price remains around the 200 weekly EMA, balancing on a 61.8% Fibo. If the price can't sustain a bid, there are prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44. However, should bulls maintain control, 54.50 guards 55.20 meeting the 20-D EMA.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut rates by 50 basis points in July and signal further easing if required, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. It

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut rates by 50 basis points in July and signal further easing if required, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.  It is worth noting that the money markets are fully priced in for a 25 basis point rate cut in July.  The investment bank said earlier this week that the Fed may lower U.S. interest rates to near zero by the spring of 2020 if the US-China trade tensions escalate, pushing the US economy into a recession.   

With the 50/21-day SMAs successfully restricting the USD/IDR pair’s immediate upside, the quote tests 100-DMA during early Thursday.

Risk-off, post-Fed moves drag the pair to near-term important support.All eyes on the BI rate decision for fresh impulse.With the 50/21-day SMAs successfully restricting the USD/IDR pair’s immediate upside, the quote tests 100-DMA while trading near 14,200 ahead of the Bank Indonesia (BI) rate decision at 07:00 GMT on Thursday. While post-FOMC momentum initially dragged the pair downwards, the latest shift in risk sentiment offers additional strength to the bears. Global risk gauge, 10-year yields for the US government bonds, slipped beneath 2.0% for the first time since November 2016. Latest bearish messages from top-tier central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) could be considered as a reason for the market’s risk-off. Investors now await monetary policy decision from the Indonesia central bank for fresh impulse. The BI isn’t expected to alter present monetary policy with the benchmark rate being around 6.0%. However, dovish communication can’t be ruled out considering recently mixed data and macro pessimism. Ahead of the release, TD Securities said: We expect no change from Bank Indonesia, with the 7d reverse repo likely to be maintained at 6%. We think BI is edging towards a rate cut amid low inflation and slowing activity, but will likely want to see further signs of IDR stability before pulling the trigger to begin reversing the 175bp of hikes implemented in 2018. The upside surprise in May CPI will not be a concern for BI given overall generally benign inflation pressures though they will want to monitor upside pressure on food prices. However, a global backdrop where markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts is conducive to easing and we expect BI to ease by August.Technical AnalysisSustained break of 14,203 support level comprising 100-day simple moving average (SMA) can fetch the quote down to June low near 14,157 and then towards April month bottom around 13,974. On the upside, 21-day SMA at 14,273 and 14,293 comprising 50-day SMA limits the pair’s immediate advances, a break of which can again propel the quote in the direction to 200-DMA level of 14,431.

Gold has rallied in Tokyo following a dovish outcome overnight from the FOMC meeting. US yields have now dropped to the lowest levels since the start

Spot gold has rallied to the highest levels since 2013 on the FOMC's dovish outcome. On a technical basis, its blue skies from here but a pull-back to 1364 could be on the cards.Gold has rallied in Tokyo following a dovish outcome overnight from the FOMC meeting. US yields have now dropped to the lowest levels since the start of Sep 2017 levels, extending the downside from overnight and in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve with a reading in Tokyo as low as 2.004%; US yields were as high as 2.098% ahead of the Fed overnight. Gold prices have subsequently rallied to the highest levels since 2013, just about surpassing the 2014 highs by a few bucks. The high, so far, has been $1,394, but at the time of writing, the yellow metal has pulled back to $1,381. FOMC outcome The Federal Reserve chose to leave monetary policy unchanged,  as expected, but the members of the committee chose to signal to the market an easing bias by dropping language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments. There was one member, James Bullard, the St Louis Fed President, who actually voted for an immediate 25bp rate cut.  CME FedWatch Tool shows 89% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in JulyThe FOMC Statement comparisons: The FOMC meeting main takeaways: Interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at 2.35%. Benchmark interest rate unchanged; target range stands at 2.25-2.50%. Drops language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments. Uncertainties have increased regarding outlook for sustained economic expansion. 9:1 policy vote, Fed's Bullard dissented because he wanted a rate cut To act as appropriate to sustain econ. expansion with a strong labour market, inflation near target Economic activity is rising at a moderate rate Household spending appears to have picked up but business fixed investment has been soft Press conference:  Analysts at TD Securities summaries the event as follows: "Powell highlighted increased uncertainty and muted inflation pressures as the key reasons for the shift in the Fed's tone. While admitting that the economy is doing reasonably well, he noted that "crosscurrents" have reemerged due to trade uncertainty, a drop in business confidence, and the potential for these to translate into weaker data. The fear of a sustained shortfall in inflation also led the Fed to sound more cautious, opening the door to an imminent rate cut. We believe that Powell signaled a shift in the reaction function, citing research suggesting that when a central bank is closer to the effective lower bound, it is wise to ease preemptively in order to prevent softness from turning into a prolonged weakening. As Powell put it, "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." The Chair also highlighted that balance sheet policy remains unchanged as it is scheduled to end in September." The Dot Plot "The dot plot was unequivocally dovish across the board. There was a significant shift in the 2019 dots, with 8 members now projecting cuts this year (7 of whom are projecting 50bp of cuts). Despite this shift, the median 2019 dot remained unchanged at 2.375%, which reflects the split among officials as 9 didn't pencil in any easing for 2019. There were also notable downward shifts in the distributions for 2020 and 2021 dots, with the medians dropping to 2.125% and to 2.375%, respectively. Also importantly, the long-run dot was revised 25bp lower to 2.50%," analysts at TD Securities explained. Gold levels Gold has rallied way above the July 2016 highs at of 1375s and is taking on 2013 territories. However, while the outlook is bullish, a pullback in a 50% man reversion of the move opens 1364 as a target. An 127% fibo extension opens the 1411s ahead of the summer 2013 highs of the 1432s.   

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December if the economic data from now and then disappoints, according

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December if the economic data from now and then disappoints, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. The investment bank also expects the Fed to end its quantitative tightening (balance sheet runoff) program in July. The markets are already priced in for two rate cuts before the year-end. Further, the money markets have priced in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8805 vs Wednesday's fix of 6.8893.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8805 vs Wednesday's fix of 6.8893.

The USD/CNH pair is currently trading at 6.8867 – the lowest level since May 13 – and could drop even further as the widely followed relative strength

USD/CNH has dropped to the lowest since May 13.The RSI is biased bearish for the first time in two months.USD/CNH risks falling to support at 6.8527.The USD/CNH pair is currently trading at 6.8867 – the lowest level since May 13 – and could drop even further as the widely followed relative strength index (RSI) has turned bearish for the first time in two months. The 14-day RSI has found acceptance below 50 and is currently seen at 44.50, the lowest level since April 19. A reading below 50 indicates the market is bearish. Further, the 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) are trending south, validating the channel breakdown confirmed on June 18. The pair also violated the support at 6.8970 with a close at 6.8932 on Wednesday. As a result, a deeper drop to 6.8527 looks likely. That level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from April lows to June 7 highs. Daily chartTrend: BearishTechnical Levels 

Having failed to visit 200-HMA during the post-Fed rally, the EUR/USD pair again rises towards the MA as it trades near 1.1255 during early Thursday.

Sustained trading beyond 100-HMA helps the buyers to target 200-HMA.Overbought RSI challenges the upside momentum.Having failed to visit 200-HMA during the post-Fed rally, the EUR/USD pair again rises towards the MA as it trades near 1.1255 during early Thursday. However, overbought levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is likely again challenging the quote, which if ignored could flash 1.1267 figure comprising 200-hour moving average (HMA) on the chart. Should there be additional rise past-1.1267, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of recent 13-days’ decline at 1.1285 and 1.1300 round-figure may mark their presence. Alternatively, 1.1245 and 100-HMA of 1.1223 can offer immediate support, a break of which can drag prices close to 1.1200 level. Assuming bears’ dominance past-1.1200, latest low around 1.1180 and June 03 bottom near 1.1160 might flash on their list.EUR/USD hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected  

The market-based measures of US inflation ticked higher on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve signaled readiness to cut rates later this year to counter

The US 10-year breakeven rate jumped 5 basis points on Wednesday. The Fed signaled pointed to possible cuts in the future.The market-based measures of US inflation ticked higher on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve signaled readiness to cut rates later this year to counter sluggish domestic price pressures.  The 10-year breakeven rate or the yield spread between 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and regular 10-year Treasuries rose to 1.688% in the late US trading, up nearly 5 basis points from Tuesday, according to Tradeweb data. Despite, the recovery, the gauge was still down nearly 30 basis points from the high of 1.98% seen on April 25.  The breakeven rate had dropped to a 21-month low of 1.614% earlier this week, prompting markets to price in at least a 50 basis point rate cut before the year-end.   

USD/JPY has spiked to the downside following a dovish outcome overnight from the FOMC meeting. US yields have fallen to the lowest levels since the st

USD/JPY has broken below the 108 handle on the FOMC's dovish outcome. On a technical basis, 107.80 has been taken out, opening a route to 107.27, a 61.8% level.USD/JPY has spiked to the downside following a dovish outcome overnight from the FOMC meeting. US yields have fallen to the lowest levels since the start of Sep 2017 levels, with a reading in Tokyo as low as 2.004%; They were up at 2.098% ahead of the Fed overnight. This has sent USD/JPY to the lowest levels since early January. "The curve bull steepened significantly on a dovish Fed message. Given our revised call for 150bp of Fed eases between now and the end of 2020, we think that the 10y yield should decline further and the 5s30s curve should steepen toward 100bp by year-end," analysts at TD Securities explained. FOMC outcome The Federal Reserve has opted to leave monetary policy unchanged,  as expected, but has signalled to the market an easing bias by dropping language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments and that they are closely monitoring and will act as appropriate. James Bullard, the St Louis Fed President, went further and voted for an immediate 25bp rate cut. The balance sheet roll off will proceed as planned. There is now a 25bp of easing priced in for the July meeting, with a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020.CME FedWatch Tool shows 89% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in JulyThe FOMC Statement comparisons: The FOMC meeting main takeaways: Interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at 2.35%. Benchmark interest rate unchanged; target range stands at 2.25-2.50%. Drops language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments. Uncertainties have increased regarding outlook for sustained economic expansion. 9:1 policy vote, Fed's Bullard dissented because he wanted a rate cut To act as appropriate to sustain econ. expansion with a strong labour market, inflation near target Economic activity is rising at a moderate rate Household spending appears to have picked up but business fixed investment has been soft The Dot Plot "The market has taken this as a signal that a July 25bp rate cut is virtually a done deal with three more to come, but we are not so sure. The path of trade talks is critical and if there are some positive messages, if not actions, and the activity data holds up, the market will be disappointed. Moreover, the “dot” diagram of forecasters has a median of NO cuts this year and only one next year," analysts at ING Bank argued. Looking ahead... We have the Bank of Japan today, and the decision has no fixed time but is most likely within an hour of 12:30pm Syd/11:30am Tokyo. Analysts at Westpac noted that the BoJ made no substantive changes at its 25 April meeting which included a quarterly forecast review, so expectations are low for today’s statement, despite a deterioration in US-China trade relations since the last meeting.When is the BOJ rate decision and how could it affect USD/JPY?USD/JPY levels Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet noted ahead of the drop that the technical indicators head firmly lower within negative levels, at over two-week low and argues that the bearish momentum is set to accelerate now that the pair loses 107.81, this month's prior low. Analysts at Commerzbank said, "Our initial target is the 107.27 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, then the 78.6% retracement at 105.87."

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 2% soon before press time to hit the lowest level since November 2016. The four basis point drops

The US 10-year bond yield hits lowest since November 2016. Fed kept rates unchanged but signaled readiness to act, if required. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 2% soon before press time to hit the lowest level since November 2016.  The four basis point drops could be associated with the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates steady but signal a shift to a more dovish stance. On Wednesday, the US central bank pointed to possible interest rate cuts in the future, citing rising “uncertainties” about the economic outlook. The Fed said it would “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” and would “closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook”. Chairman Powell, while speaking at the policy presser, said that the case for additional accommodation and uncertainty surrounding the baseline outlook have increased since the last meeting.  The dot plots showed the Fed is unlikely to cut rates this year. Even so, the yields are on the retreat and the money markets have priced in 100% probability of a rate cut in July. It appears the Fed's decision to remove the word "patience" from the forward guidance on interest rates has been taken a sign the bank is ready to act if necessary.  As of writing, the yield is trading at 2% – down 18 basis points on a month-to-date basis and 81 basis points on a year-to-date basis.   

Early on Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will conclude its latest monetary policy meeting approximately at 2:00 GMT.

Early on Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will conclude its latest monetary policy meeting approximately at 2:00 GMT. The central bank is widely expected not to announce any changes in its key policy actions by holding short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and keep directing 10-year government bond yields toward zero. With the absence of quarterly economic outlook, the event has fewer key details to watch except the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at the press conference somewhere near 04:30 GMT. Ahead of the event, TD Securities said, As Fed easing expectations intensify and central banks globally become more dovish, attention has shifted to BoJ policy. Admittedly the BoJ is more constrained than the Fed in terms of policy room, but their rhetoric has become more dovish. We don’t expect easing anytime soon but the BoJ is likely to sound dovish and could offer some enhanced forward guidance. Kuroda outlined four options in terms of more policy stimulus, with one being a further cut in the deposit rate. However, BoJ would need to outline how they plan to alleviate the pressure on bank profits from such a move.How could it affect the USD/JPY?Sluggish data support at home and recently dovish statements from the Governor Kuroda indicate reinforcement to the central bank’s easy monetary policy, which in turn could trigger the decline of the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, JPY’s safe-haven appeal could restrict the quote’s upside amid persistent fears of a global economic recession. On the technical front, a sustained break of 107.80 holds the key to the quote’s extended downturn towards January 04 low near 107.47 whereas 106.62 and 105.50 could entertain sellers then after. Meanwhile, 108.20 and 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 108.67 restricts the pair’s near-term upside, a break of which can extend the recovery towards 108.80 and May 13 low near 109.00.Key NotesUSD/JPY analysis: bears ready to push it further down USD/JPY technical analysis: Not even the Fed can break this range USD/JPY drops to test 108.00 as Fed sends US Dollar to the downsideAbout BoJ Rate DecisionBoJ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Japan. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the JPY. Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is negative, or bearish.
EUR/JPY is under pressure and is moving back into the April downtrend following a short-lived correction from the May lows (at the 78.6% Fibo).On a retest of the downside and at said level, bears can look to the 117.85 January spike low. On the upside, 123.75, May 21 high and the 55 day moving average at 123.64 guards 125.52 ahead of the  200 day ma at 126.31 and the 200 week moving average at 126.27. 

In addition to further clarity over the UK PM’s race after three rounds of Tory voting, dovish FOMC offers additional fuel to GBP/USD recovery.

Receding political uncertainty and the Fed’s dovish turn helps the Cable.UK Retail sales and BOE are in the spotlight for fresh impulse.In addition to further clarity over the UK PM’s race after three rounds of Tory voting, dovish FOMC offered additional fuel to GBP/USD recovery that’s confronting 21-DMA by being around 1.2655 on Thursday morning. The Conservatives hold their favorite status reserved for Boris Johnson during the third round of voting, by giving him 146 favors, while leaving the race was Rory Stewart. With this, there prevail only 4 candidates to the race for the UK Prime Minister leaving gates open for the final round of voting later-today before calling in the postal vote from the 160,000 Tory party members. Markets recently welcomed shift in Boris’s support for hard Brexit while giving less importance to the headline UK consumer price index (CPI) data meeting 2.0% forecast on YoY basis. Federal Reserve’s shift to join the rest of global central bank doves also helped the Cable to extend the latest recovery. However, Chairman Jerome Powell’s “not so dovish” press conference questioned the bulls. Looking forward, UK retail sales and monetary policy meeting by the Bank of England (BOE) will be in the spotlight. The retail sales might soften to 2.7% from 5.2% during May on a yearly format and could drop to -0.5% versus 0.0% on a MoM basis. The BOE isn’t expected to alter its monetary policy while no change is likely happening in the MPC vote. Though, investors will seek clues of Brexit uncertainty and how might it affect the central bank’s future moves inside the statement.Technical AnalysisA 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2660 acts as immediate upside barrier, a break of which can trigger the pair’s rise to current month high near 1.2765 and then towards 50-day SMA level of 1.2828. On the downside, 1.2610, 1.2580 and latest bottom near 1.2505 seem key supports to watch.

Trump responds to Powell's "I have a four-year term and I expect to complete" from today's FOMC meeting saying that he believes he has the authority t

Trump responds to Powell's "I have a four-year term and I expect to complete" from today's FOMC meeting saying that he believes he has the authority to replace Powell at Fed.  Trump not planning to demote Powell, for now - People familiar

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥-95.4B (June 14) vs ¥-148B

Japan Foreign Bond Investment fell from previous ¥1736B to ¥327.3B in June 14

Forex today was centred around the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the dovish outcome that was expected. The dollar initially sold off but b

FOMC offered a dovish bias and sunk the dollar and US yields. Aussie could come under pressure form a scheduled speech from RBA's Lowe today. Forex today was centred around the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the dovish outcome that was expected. The dollar initially sold off but bounced back just as stocks peaked following Powell's presser. All in all, the steep and sustained fall in US yields should keep the greenback's advances capped, but for Asian currencies, trade uncertainties and an easing bias at their own major central banks will remain an anchor - Despite weak USD sentiment, RBA governor Lowe’s speech could be a weight on the Aussie as he will likely provide greater clarity around the timing of the next cut to the cash rate. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has left rates and policy on hold, as expected, but has signalled to the market an easing bias by dropping language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments and that they are closely monitoring and will act as appropriate. The balance sheet roll off will proceed as planned. The 10 year US yield was falling to 2.038% from a prior range of between 2.0530% and 2.0990%, well down from the 2019 high of 2.80%. 2yr yields were osting an even larger fall from 1.88% to 1.74%. There is now a 25bp of easing priced in for the July meeting, with a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020.CME FedWatch Tool shows 89% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in JulyThe FOMC Statement comparisons: The FOMC meeting main takeaways: Interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at 2.35%. Benchmark interest rate unchanged; target range stands at 2.25-2.50%. Drops language saying it would be 'patient' on future policy adjustments. Uncertainties have increased regarding outlook for sustained economic expansion. 9:1 policy vote, Fed's Bullard dissented because he wanted a rate cut To act as appropriate to sustain econ. expansion with a strong labour market, inflation near target Economic activity is rising at a moderate rate Household spending appears to have picked up but business fixed investment has been soft The Dot Plot"The ‘dot plot’ shows a median steady policy this year but that obscures a big dovish tail, with 8 among 17 projecting cuts this year - almost all (7) project 2 cuts this year. Chair Powell also noted in his introductory remarks that even those who projected a flat Fed Funds profile conceded that the case for a cut had strengthened. The median for 2020 now shows a 25bp cut, a 50bp turnaround from the hike that was projected by the median back in March. The long run rate was trimmed 25bp," analysts at Westpac explained.  Since then... In early Asian markets, the Kiwi was a focus with the New Zealand GDP data which was a 0.1% beat on the year, sending the Kiwi 20 pips higher on the knee jerk.New Zealand GDP: Quarterly rise 0.6% (2.5% annual/a beat kiwi rallies 20 pips)Currency action Analysts at Westpac gave a summary of the price action overnight before the New Zealand GDP data (Kiwi spiked 20 pips)  The US dollar was volatile, falling in response to the FOMC statement but trimming its losses to be only a little softer against most major currencies. EUR/USD rose about 30 pips to 1.1254 then steadied at 1.1230. GBP/USD rallied substantially before the FOMC then consolidated around 1.2640, up 0.7% on the day. UK May inflation data was on the firm side. Though headline CPI was in line at 2.0%y/y, core CPI held firmer than expected at 1.7%y/y (est. 1.6%y/y, prior 1.8%y/y). USD/JPY fell from 108.35 to 107.90 and then steadied around 108.10. AUD/USD initially jumped from 0.6870 to 0.6909 in response to the FOMC but then retraced to 0.6880. NZD/USD similarly spiked from 0.6530 to 0.6563 before retracing to 0.6535. AUD/NZD wasn’t too ruffled, ranging sideways between 1.0515 and 1.0535. Key notes from Wall Street:Wall Street continues upside correction on dovish FOMCKey events ahead: RBA governor Lowe speaks in Adelaide titled “The Labour Market and Spare Capacity” from 12:35pm Syd/10:35am Sing/HK. The Bank of Japan meets - The decision has no fixed time but is most likely within an hour of 12:30pm Syd/11:30am Tokyo.  

Even if New Zealand GDP data came in better than expected, the AUD/NZD pair refrains from declining below short-term horizontal-support.

Buyers keep lurking around recent lows despite Kiwi positive GDP numbers.An uptick beyond 100-DMA can trigger short-covering moves.61.8% Fibo. appears next on sellers’ radar past-1.0495.Even if New Zealand GDP data came in better than expected, the AUD/NZD pair refrains from declining below short-term horizontal-support as it takes the rounds to 1.0497 amid early Thursday’s trading. New Zealand’s Q1 2019 GDP crossed 2.4% forecast to clock in 2.5% upwardly revised prior while remaining unchanged and meeting wide expectations with 0.6% QoQ figure. The 1.0500 – 1.0495 support-zone comprising current month low and high of April 03 challenges the pair’s recent downturn, a break of which opens the door for additional declines to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March – April upside, at 1.0450. During the quote’s extended south-run under 1.0450, late-March lows surrounding 1.0400 and 1.0275 could become bears’ favorites. On the upside, a pullback beyond 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.0507 can trigger fresh short-covering moves towards 1.0540 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 1.0560. However, pair’s further increase above 1.0560 will be challenged by 50-day SMA level of 1.0585, if not then bulls can aim for 1.0600 and May-end tops near 1.0635.AUD/NZD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Better than forecast New Zealand GDP data added strength into the NZD/USD pair as it is on the bids near 0.65555 during early Thursday.

Upbeat NZ GDP data extended post-Fed increase.Second-tier US data, trade news will be in the focus for now.Better than forecast New Zealand GDP data added strength into the NZD/USD pair as it is on the bids near 0.65555 during early Thursday. The Q1 2019 GDP matched 0.6% forecast and prior mark on a quarterly basis but grew past 2.4% expectations to print upwardly revised prior of 2.5%. While the latest optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks have already pleased the Kiwi buyers, the US Fed’s shift to join rest of the global central bank bears offered additional strength to the buying sentiment. Though, traders were little cautious ahead of the first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) data. With the first quarter NZ GDP already out and loud, investors may now look for Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe’s speech to take clues for further monetary easing by the central bank of New Zealand’s largest customer. Post that, second-tier US data and further news about how the US and China could go on a trade talk at G20 will grab the limelight.Technical AnalysisBuyers look for a sustained break above the post-Fed high of 0.6563 in order to aim for 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6600. Though, sustained break of 0.6600 could help escalate the latest recovery towards the monthly top of 0.6682. Alternatively, 0.6500 and 0.6480 seem nearby support ahead of October 2018 bottom surrounding 0.6465.

New Zealand Q1 GDP has been released in line with expectations. The market was expected a 0.6% quarterly rise (2.4% annual). The prior was 0.6% quarte

New Zealand Q1 GDP has been released in line with expectations.  The market was expecting a 0.6% quarterly rise (2.4% annual). The prior was 0.6% quarterly (2.3% annual). The data arrived as follows: Quarterly rise 0.6% (2.5% annual/a 0.1% beat). "Key partial Q1 indicators have been a mixed bag: solid but slowing retail sales volumes, modest wholesale trade, very strong building work, but soft ex-primary manufacturing. We are likely to see a very weak per capita GDP outturn, as Statistics NZ’s new methodology for estimating net migration suggests the population grew strongly in Q1. We can expect more volatility and greater revisions in per capita GDP as a result of the very large revisions evident in reported net migration for the best part of a year under the new methodology," analysts at ANZ Bank explained. About the Gross Domestic Product  The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by New Zealand. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of New Zealand economic activity and health. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish) for the NZD. FX implications  The NZD will find some support on the data being in line and has rallied 20 pips to 0.6556 on the knee jerk.

New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above forecasts (2.4%) in 1Q

New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 1Q

Failure to slip beneath immediate support-confluence portrays the GBP/JPY pair’s ability to again aim for 137.00.

100-HMA, 38.2% Fibo. offers strong downside support.Immediate ascending trend-line also portrays the pair’s strength.Failure to slip beneath immediate support-confluence portrays the GBP/JPY pair’s ability to again aim for 137.00 while it takes the rounds to 136.73 during the early Asian session on Thursday. If prices manage to remain strong beyond the latest high near 137.00, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 137.20 and 137.80 can come back on the chart. In a case, bulls manage to hold their bods above 137.80 last week's high around 138.33 could be their next target. On the downside break of 136.50/48 support-confluence including 100-hour moving average (100-HMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement could open the door for the pair’s fresh selling towards 136.13 support-line. Also, pair’s decline below 136.13 trend-line support might not refrain from dragging it to 135.80 and then to 135.40 rest-points.GBP/JPY hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected  

AUD/USD is steady in early Asia, consolidated between a tight range having moved up from the 0.6832 lows of earlier in the week, boosted on trade talk

AUD/USD could struggle to hold on to post FOMC gains on RBA Lowe.FOMC dovish tone and trade talk optimism supporting upside in AUD/USD.AUD/USD is steady in early Asia, consolidated between a tight range having moved up from the 0.6832 lows of earlier in the week, boosted on trade talk optimism and a dovish Federal Reserve. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6885 at the time of writing as traders await a speech from RBA's governor Lowe scheduled for 12.35 AEST in Adelaide today.  The greenback was on the backfoot leading into and post the FOMC meeting and outcome overnight that offered a dovish outlook for the months ahead. The FOMC today left the fed funds rate unchanged, but the language in the statement and in Powell's presser on the outlook sunk the dollar and helped risk appetite along, fueling a bid in stocks and the antipodeans. The FOMC took out the reference to being “patient” on borrowing costs and was signalling that cuts are likely in the foreseeable future. The caveat to that, however, was the growth of the economy of which the FOMC seems to be quiet content with at this stage. However, as analysts at ANZ Bank point out, growth was described as “moderate” rather than “solid”, clouded by “uncertainties”, and the inflation forecasts were reduced. "In the first dissent since Powell took the helm, St Louis Fed Chair Bullard voted for an immediate rate cut. The dot plots were unusually divided, with eight of 17 committee members expecting a cut by year end, eight seeing no change, and one forecasting a hike. The market will strongly side with the would-be cutters unless the data flow changes tone. In the press conference, Chair Powell noted that he intends to serve his full four-year term," the analysts at ANZ explained. In the background, trade is a key issue and following a phone call with President Xi that broke the one-month long stalemate, Trump's optimism and subsequent announcements that he will be meeting Xi at the G20 to resolve trade matters have boosted US stock markets and risk appetite as a whole.  Looking ahead For the day ahead, there is no domestic Aussie data but RBA Governor Lowe is speaking at 12.35 AEST in Adelaide on “The Labour Market and Spare Capacity” which will no doubt be of interest to Aussie traders. Despite weak USD sentiment, expect support for the AUD to wane ahead of Lowe’s speech, with risks to the downside as he will likely provide greater clarity around the timing of the next cut to the cash rate - The Minutes this week indicating that the central bank intended to ease policy further.  AUD/USD levels Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD has eroded its 78.6% retracement at .6857 BUT the daily RSI has not confirmed this new low and has diverged suggesting a loss of downside momentum. "We would allow for some near term consolidation/correction higher. It remains directly offered below the 55 day ma at 0.7000, 0.7022 the June peak and the April peak at 0.7069. Targets remain the 0.6738 January 2019 low and 0.6725, the 2016-2019 support line (connects the lows). Below 0.6738/25 would target the 78.6% retracement at 0.6125."

With the sustained trading below short-term descending trend-line, AUD/JPY seems on the back foot while trading near 74.40 during the early Thursday.

21-HMA and 9-day long resistance-line limit the pair’s upside.RSI also not oversold, signaling additional declines.With the sustained trading below short-term descending trend-line, AUD/JPY seems on the back foot while trading near 74.40 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Not only a downward sloping trend-line since June 11 but pair’s declines beneath 21-hour moving average (21-HMA) also portray the underlying weakness that can drag it to sub-74.00 area. However, 74.30 and 74.18 are likely intermediate halt that might be availed during the downpour. Should there be additional south-run under current month low of 73.92, 73.00 and the year 2016 bottom 72.40 could flash on sellers’ radar. It is worth noting that 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is also not in the oversold territory, favoring further declines. Meanwhile, an uptick beyond 74.47 mark comprising 21-HMA needs validation from trend-line break, at 74.64 now, in order to aim for 74.80 and 75.00 numbers to the north. Furthermore, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest slide at 75.24 and June 11 high near 75.70 could become buyers’ favorites during the extra rise.AUD/JPY hourly chartTrend: Bearish  

While Fed’s dovish appearance benefited all the major currencies, except the US Dollar (USD) as usual, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) seems cautious ahead of GDP.

Dovish FOMC joined trade positive news to please Kiwi buyers. Though, nearness to GDP triggered cautious trading.Likely soft GDP figures could keep the pressure on RBNZ towards another rate cut.While Fed’s dovish appearance benefited all the major currencies, except the US Dollar (USD) as usual, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trimming some of its post-FOMC gains as investors turn cautious ahead of first quarter NZ GDP. With this, the NZD/USD pair trades near 0.6540 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session. The US Federal Reserve dropped the word “patient” from the statement and also indicated rate cuts while the Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference mentioned the economy solid. Investors concentrated more on the dovish part of the statement and downgraded inflation forecast. As a result, the Kiwi pair initially extended its previous recovery led by trade positive news and gave little importance to the mixed current account data at home. However, traders remain on the sidelines at the start of the day when the first quarter (Q1) 2019 New Zealand GDP is up for release at 10:45 PM GMT. Forecasts suggest the quarterly print arrive unchanged at 0.6% but an increase to 2.4% from 2.3% is expected as far as YoY numbers are concerned. ANZ expects 0.4% QoQ and 2.2% yearly growth figures while mentioning the reasons as: Key partial Q1 indicators have been a mixed bag: solid but slowing retail sales volumes, modest wholesale trade, very strong building work, but soft ex-primary manufacturing. We are likely to see a very weak per capita GDP outturn, as Statistics NZ’s new methodology for estimating net migration suggests the population grew strongly in Q1. We can expect more volatility and greater revisions in per capita GDP as a result of the very large revisions evident in reported net migration for the best part of a year under the new methodology. The expected weakness in the GDP data could keep the rate cut pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) intact. Following NZ GDP, the US weekly jobless claims and monthly result from the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be in the spotlight together with developments surrounding the US-China trade talks. The US jobless claims are expected to decline to 220K from 222K while the manufacturing gauge might also slip to 11.0 from 16.6 during June month.Technical AnalysisThe Kiwi pair is yet to offer a sustained run up beyond 0.6560, which in turn could drag the pair to 0.6500 and 0.6480 during the fresh downturn. Also, pair’s extended declines below 0.6480 can recall October 2018 low near 0.6465 ahead of challenging the year 2018 bottom close to 0.6425. Meanwhile, a successful break of 0.6560 can lead the pair to 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6600 and then to current month high around 0.6682.

After the latest dovish appearance of the US Federal Reserve, Global rating giant Moody’s came out with the statement.

After the latest dovish appearance of the US Federal Reserve, Global rating giant Moody’s came out with the statement saying that is expects Fed will likely cut Federal funds rate later this year if financial conditions significantly tighten amid increased trade tension. The statement further mentioned that the FOMC’s decision to hold Fed funds rate is consistent with view that while growth is moderating, data continues to present solid economic performance.

The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was on wires recently, via CNBC, while speaking after a meeting among White House officials and congressional meet.

The US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was on wires recently, via CNBC, while speaking after a meeting among White House officials and congressional leaders from both parties in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office. Mr. Treasury Secretary said that the White House will offer a one-year continuing resolution and debt ceiling increase if Congress and the White House cannot strike a spending deal. He further said that the US President Donald Trump wants to avoid another shutdown. The news report further mentioned that Lawmakers and the Trump administration are rushing to pass a spending agreement and raise the U.S. borrowing limit to avoid risking default or another government shutdown.

The Greenback sold off as the latest FOMC report is hinting at cutting interest rates. This was perceived as dovish by the market and bearish for the

The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below 97.30 support.The market is turning bearish and could potentially decline towards 97.00 and 96.74. The Greenback sold off as the latest FOMC report is hinting at cutting interest rates. This was perceived as dovish by the market and bearish for the American currency.  DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a bull trend above its 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DSMA). The market retraced unable to break above 97.80 resistance.
DXY 4-hour chart DXY broke below the 97.30 level and its 50 and 100 SMAs. It found some support at the 50 SMA just above 97.00. DXY 30-minute chart DXY is trading below 97.30 and its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the near term. The 50 SMA is crossing below the 100 SMA which is a bearish sign. The market can potentially decline towards 97.00 and 96.74. Immediate resistance is at 97.30 and 97.55.Additional key levels 

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.8%) in May

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in May: Actual (0%)

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