Ostrzeżenie o ryzyku: CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z wysokim ryzykiem szybkiej utraty pieniędzy z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 89% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych traci pieniądze podczas handlu CFD z tym dostawcą. Musisz upewnić się, że rozumiesz, jak CFD działają i czy możesz sobie pozwolić na podjęcie wysokiego ryzyka utraty pieniędzy.
Ostrzeżenie o ryzyku: CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z wysokim ryzykiem szybkiej utraty pieniędzy z powodu dźwigni finansowej. 89% rachunków inwestorów detalicznych traci pieniądze podczas handlu CFD z tym dostawcą. Musisz upewnić się, że rozumiesz, jak CFD działają i czy możesz sobie pozwolić na podjęcie wysokiego ryzyka utraty pieniędzy.

Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

wtorek, październik 16, 2018

Following today's CPI beat, analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand explained, overall, that they think the RBNZ will be quick to look beyond Q3’s print towa

Following today's CPI beat, analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand explained, overall, that they think the RBNZ will be quick to look beyond Q3’s print towards the medium-term direction for economic activity and core inflation.Key Quotes:"And in that regard, patchy data-flow and global developments suggest economic activity may struggle to keep inflationary pressures elevated. While today’s solid inflation print presents something of a communications challenge for the RBNZ, we doubt it would do much to delay an OCR cut should the Bank deem the growth outlook to be deteriorating."

According to analysts at HSBC, there are five key counter-arguments to the bearish-USD market perspective currently at work. Key highlights Bearis

According to analysts at HSBC, there are five key counter-arguments to the bearish-USD market perspective currently at work.Key highlightsBearish USD argument 1 - Fed rates are near the peak and are already priced in.​​​​​​​Rates are currently moving closer towards neutral, but this is not the same as reaching peak rate, and it's unclear both when and how quickly other central banks will begin lifting their comparative interest rates.Bearish USD argument 2 - The US economy is set to slow, while Eurozone growth will pick up.US growth estimates continue to be revised to the upside, rather than down, while Eurozone growth is currently failing to meet forecasts as it is; markets are assuming a Eurozone recovery, but no explanation is forthcoming for 2018's big miss, which is still running.Bearish USD argument 3 - Structural forces point to a weaker USD, overwhelming any cyclical support from higher interest rates.The Eurozone is also exposed to its own structural weaknesses, with Italy's current tribulations highlighting the imbalances within the EU's own market system.Bearish USD argument 4 – Emerging markets FX is structurally sound and cheap, with USD weakness the flipside.Emerging markets don't offer as much value as they are currently perceived to, with macro frailties still baked in with most demand remand within domestic markets.Bearish USD argument 5 - The USD has not rallied enough or at all given what should have been supportive developments – this shows it is already expensive.The US Dollar continues to rally broad-base despite a lack of buildup in the Dollar index, and the Greenback could easily have plenty of more room to run.

Analysts at TD Securities recapped some of the key notes in the FX space from Monday's European and US sessisons.  Key Quotes: "GBP After reports th

Analysts at TD Securities recapped some of the key notes in the FX space from Monday's European and US sessisons. Key Quotes:"GBP After reports that negotiators had concluded a draft Withdrawal Agreement last week came the news that Theresa May was unable to offer political sign-off on the draft. Accounts vary, but it looks like the EU is willing to accept the UK's proposal of a UK-wide customs union backstop, but only as a secondary backstop to the originally-proposed Irish backstop. The UK opposes this, though we note that it could be a compromise that gives the EU coverage to agree to a time limit in the original backstop. Progress at this week's meeting remains possible, but only at the political level. November's EU leaders meeting remains an open question, but both sides acknowledge that the deadline for a deal is still months away--Dec or possibly even Feb.CAD The Bank of Canada's Autumn Business Outlook Survey painted an upbeat picture, with a pickup in future sales, investment intentions, and persistent capacity pressures. The report also revealed near-record labour shortages and showed the majority of firms surveyed expect inflation to run above 2% in the next two years. Looking past the BOS, existing home sales were slightly weaker than expected in September with their first decline in five months. Sales activity was down 0.4% at the national level, led by a 1.5% decline in Vancouver.USD Retail sales surprised to the downside in September with a muted 0.1% increase (TD: 0.9%, market: 0.6%). Motor vehicles made a sizeable contribution on a 0.8% gain but gasoline sales were a drag, which could be partly explained by hurricane effects. Core retail sales were less downbeat with the control group posting a 0.5% increase (TD: 0.5%, market: 0.4%)."

The EUR/USD is testing near 1.1585 after slipping slightly back from Monday's peak of 1.1606 on broader US Dollar weakness, and Euro bulls are trying

The Euro is flattening out ahead of Tuesday's Asia market session after a surprising turnaround from the week's bearish start.US Dollar weakness could be the main driver in the major pair, and further EUR weakness can't be ruled out.The EUR/USD is testing near 1.1585 after slipping slightly back from Monday's peak of 1.1606 on broader US Dollar weakness, and Euro bulls are trying to scrape together a floor for a second launch into higher territory after picking the pair up off of the week's opening lows of 1.1535. The Euro saw a firm recovery in Monday's action after a bearish start to the trading week, and a softening of Greenback buyers' positions has helped the Fiber reverse recent bearish action to push back into bullish turf. European Trade Balance data will be dropping later Tuesday, but the low-tier indicator is unlikely to have a significant impact as Italy headlines continue to dominate the EUR space. Italy went ahead with a government budget that intentionally violates Brussel's wishes, expanding the budget deficit and putting further strain on the Italian debt pile, which is already straining towards 130% of GDP. Continued showdowns over Italy's budget can be expected in the near future, which could prove to be a sizeable headwind for the EUR as the fiscally-conservative European Union tries to stare down the spend-happy Italian government.EUR/USD Levels to watchThe Fiber chart is primed for a bullish continuation, but momentum remains weak and bidders could find themselves in a volatility trap, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the pair settled a handful of pips below its daily high and around the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1814/1.1431 daily decline at 1.1575. In the 4 hours chart, the pair was unable to sustain gains above a bearish 100 SMA, but trades above a bullish 20 SMA, with the strong upward slope of the shortest maintaining the risk skewed to the upside. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart held into positive ground, but lacking directional strength. A tough resistance area comes around 1.1620/30, where the pair has the 50% retracement of the mentioned decline and the 200 SMA in the mentioned chart. The risk will turn south on a break below 1.1530, the low set last Friday." Support levels: 1.1575 1.1530 1.1500 Resistance levels: 1.1620 1.1660 1.1700

The Kiwi has taken flight after the NZ CPI data arrived at 0.9% q/q vs. expected 0.7% and much better than prior 0.4% q/q - (1.9 % y/y - higher than e

NZD/USD has rallied on the New Zealand CPI beat and is en route for a test of the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 0.6593 and 2nd October highs of 0.6594. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6587 having printed a post data high of 0.6589, from a low of 0.6494. The Kiwi has taken flight after the NZ CPI data arrived at 0.9% q/q vs. expected 0.7% and much better than prior 0.4% q/q - (1.9 % y/y - higher than expected 1.7% y/y, prior 1.5%). This data will have diminished ideas of a rate cut in the near future from the RBNZ although rallies may be shortlived and interpreted as transitory.  "The USD retreated overnight on the back of trade tensions and softer US data and this cross is likely to continue to be buffeted by global factors, like the FOMC minutes out later this week," analysts at ANZ noted.Focus on the dollarMeanwhile, there are a number of arguments for a softer dollar from here out and the following are a list of 5 reasons that one might take a bearish view, rebutted by bulls at HSBC: "Bearish USD argument 1 - Fed rates are near the peak and are already priced in. HSBC pushback - Rates may be moving closer to neutral, but this is not the same as the peak rate. Doubts remain about when and how quickly other central banks will raise rates. Also, the level may matter, not just the rate of change. Bearish USD argument 2 - The US economy is set to slow, while Eurozone growth will pick up. HSBC pushback - US growth estimates are being revised upwards, while the Eurozone needs growth to recover just to meet existing forecasts. Survey data in Eurozone remains challenging. The market seems to assume a Eurozone recovery but cannot explain the big growth miss so far in 2018. Bearish USD argument 3 - Structural forces point to a weaker USD, overwhelming any cyclical support from higher interest rates. HSBC pushback - Eurozone has its structural frailties too, as Italy’s tribulations illustrate. Internal Eurozone imbalances are difficult to address. Fiscal issues can open the question of whether the EUR is divisible, while the USD is not. Bearish USD argument 4 – Emerging markets FX is structurally sound and cheap, with USD weakness the flipside. HSBC pushback – We believe emerging market FX does not offer value and those that are ‘cheap’ reflect their risk profile. Foreigners still own much of the local market, suggesting less scope for a rush back into these currencies. Macro frailties remain. Bearish USD argument 5 - The USD has not rallied enough or at all given what should have been supportive developments – this shows it is already expensive. HSBC pushback - The USD has continued to rally on a broader basis, even if this is not fully captured by the USD Index (DXY). The USD is not expensive on our metrics, and has room to catch up with these developments, in our view."ND/USD levelsWhile the bird is in flight, it still has plenty more altitude to gain to mark a hint of bullishness on the monthly charts remain indicative of a continuation to the downside where we are seeing a sea of red and no obvious indication of any sustainable let-up. However, a break of the descending channel's resistance line and 0.66 the figure opens room to 0.6633 as the 76.4% Fibo target in the near term.

New Zealand's CPI reading for 2018's third quarter came in higher than markets had anticipated, with the q/q figure printing at 0.9% (forecast 0.7%, l

New Zealand's CPI reading for 2018's third quarter came in higher than markets had anticipated, with the q/q figure printing at 0.9% (forecast 0.7%, last 0.4%) and the annualized CPI ticking into 1.9% (forecast 1.7%, last 1.5%), sending the NZD/USD kicking into 0.6560 on reaction.Key highlights (via Stats NZ)The consumers price index (CPI) increased 1.9 percent in the September 2018 year, driven by higher petrol prices, Stats NZ said today. “Petrol prices increased 19 percent in the September 2018 year,” prices senior manager Paul Pascoe said. “This is the highest annual increase since June 2011.” "While petrol only makes up about 4 percent of the CPI, it can have a large impact on overall inflation," Mr Pascoe said. "It contributed about 30 percent to the quarterly CPI movement for September, and about 40 percent to the annual movement." This is the first time petrol prices have risen for four consecutive quarters since September 2008, during the global financial crisis. The falling exchange rate, which makes imports more expensive for New Zealanders, also contributed to a 2.6 percent rise in the price of audio-visual equipment such as televisions, cameras, and home theatre systems in the September 2018 quarter. This is the first quarterly rise for audio-visual equipment since September 2016, as quality adjustments generally cause price falls for these goods.   

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 1.9% above expectations (1.7%) in 3Q

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.7%) in 3Q

AUD/USD continues to take its cues from the performance of the Chinese Yuan which remains stubbornly on the defensive vs the greenback while bulls c

It was a positive start tot he week for the Aussie that extended its European gains in the US session, climbing from 0.7107 to a high of 0.7148, a touch through the 38.2% Fibo at 0.7145 while the greenback continues to struggle. AUD/USD continues to take its cues from the performance of the Chinese Yuan which remains stubbornly on the defensive vs the greenback while bulls continue to attack dips but fail to cross the line through 6.93. However, financial markets were generally stable overnight, giving rise to a bid in industrial metals, gold and the high betas despite weakness in Asian markets yesterday. Focus on the greenback So long as the USD continues to underperform on the back of trade tensions and now data with a soft US retail sales headline, the antipodes can enjoy the ride for the meantime.  For the day ahead, we have the RBA minutes and Chinese CPI ahead of US data in IP, JOLTS and housing stats. AUD/USD levelsValeria Bednarik, Chief Analysts at FXStreet explained that the short-term technical picture offers a mixed outlook: "In the 4 hours chart, the price is above a bullish 20 SMA but below bearish 100 and 200 SMA, with the distance between moving averages shrinking and the price trapped in-between, a sign that clearer definitions are not far away. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart retreated from daily highs, but hold within positive ground, limiting chances of a downward extension, at least as long as the price holds above the 0.7080/90 price zone."

S&P500 daily chart Spot rate:                  2,745.75 Relative change:      -0.86%      High:                         2,775.25 Low:          

The S&P500 crashed last Wednesday and drove prices below the 200-day simple moving average. The S&P500 is showing no sign of recovery suggesting that further losses can be on the cards. The RSI, MACD and Stochastic indicators are bearishly configured. Supports to the downside can be expected near 2,718.75 (April 17 high), 2,700.00 figure and 2,647.25 (March 2 low) but nothing shows that they should hold.S&P500 daily chartSpot rate:                  2,745.75
Relative change:      -0.86%     
High:                         2,775.25
Low:                          2,743.75 Main trend:               Bullish
Short-term trend:      Bearish Resistance 1:           2,763.50 July 11 low
Resistance 2:           2,800.00 figure
Resistance 3:           2,834.25 current October 10 low
Resistance 4:           2,853.00 August 9 low
Resistance 5:           2,863.75 August 7 high
Resistance 6:           2,877.00 January swing high
 
Support 1:                2,718.75 April 17 high
Support 2:                2,710.00 October 11 low
Support 3:                2,700.00 figure
Support 4:                2,647.25 March 2 low

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the next key data scheduled for today from the US session. Key Quotes: "Industrial production: We expect a s

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the next key data scheduled for today from the US session.Key Quotes:"Industrial production: We expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in industrial production in September (Consensus: 0.2%), some of which will likely be driven by strong contributions from the autos and mining sectors. Autos and auto parts output likely increased at a solid pace, based on industry forecasts. The mining sector production likely rose firmly, based on incoming EIA data on crude oil and liquid gas production. We think ex-auto manufacturing sector output increased only modestly, with downside risk related to disruptions caused by the Hurricane Florence in South Carolina and North Carolina. Carolinas’ production of textile products, food, beverage & tobacco products, furniture products and wood products accounts for substantial shares of national production. These industries were likely most exposed to the storm. That said, the negative impact from the storm on manufacturing output was likely more modest than the effects of a series of hurricanes that hit the Gulf of Mexico area in 2017 and led to prolonged disruptions to rig operation, oil refining, and petrochemical production. Looking through weather-related volatility, we expect a continued expansion in output considering strong domestic demand in the near term. However, the easing of some manufacturing survey indices in late Q3, coupled with signs of slowing external growth, raise some concern. JOLTS job openings: Job openings remain at historical highs as strong economic growth results in sustained demand for workers. In addition, the quits rate, a measure of worker bargaining power, increased to 2.4% in July, the highest reading since April 2001. Finally, labor market turnover, the sum of hires and separations divided by two times employment has picked up, consistent with a modest acceleration in wage growth. NAHB housing market index: We expect the NAHB housing market index to ease slightly to 66 from 67 in October (Consensus: 67). While our forecast of 66 still indicates strong optimism, the recent incoming data have indicated that worsening affordability may be affecting demand for new housing. Consumer sentiment on home buying conditions has been deteriorating for a while on rising prices. On the positives, the labor market remains strong and demographic factors still remain favorable for housing demand. In addition, the recent stabilization of softwood lumber prices may have alleviated some concern among homebuilders. "

South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY) down to 9.7% in September from previous 10%

South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) dipped from previous 2.1% to 1.4% in September

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