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środa, kwiecień 24, 2019

AUD/NZD slipped beneath an upward sloping trend-line stretched since late-March after Australia’s headline inflation numbers disappointed Aussie buyers.

AUD/NZD trades around the lowest level in a week to 1.0630 during early Wednesday. The pair slipped beneath an upward sloping trend-line stretched since late-March after Australia’s headline inflation numbers, namely consumer prices index (CPI) and RBA trimmed mean CPI, lagged behind market consensus and prior readings. In addition to breaking near-term support-line, the quote is also testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its March to April upside, at 1.0620, which if broken could further weaken the pair in direction to 1.0570 horizontal-line. If prices keep trading southward under 1.0570, 1.0530 and 1.0500 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. During the reversal/pullback, 1.0640 and 1.0670 can be considered as nearby resistances whereas a weeklong descending trend-line at 1.0680 may challenge buyers then after. Should there be increased buying pressure past-1.0680, 1.0700 and 1.0730 could become Bulls’ favorites.AUD/NZD 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

The Australian dollar is fast losing altitude in response to the weaker-than-expected Australian first quarter consumer price index released at 01:30

Australia's first quarter consumer price index missed estimates, sending the AUD lower across the board. AUD/JPY has dropped to 78.76 - 61.8% Fib R of 77.5/80.72. The key Fib hurdle could be breached as Australia's 10-year government bond has dropped sharply on the back of weak data. The Australian dollar is fast losing altitude in response to the weaker-than-expected Australian first quarter consumer price index released at 01:30 GMT.  The AUD/JPY pair has shed more than 50 pips and is currently trading at 78.76, which is the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 77.54 to 80.72.  Australia's inflation as represented by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2019, missing the expected 0.4 percent rise. The inflation had risen by 0.4 percent in the final quarter of 2018.  The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) trimmed mean, which is widely considered a more reliable figure, rose 1.6 percent year-on-year, missing the estimate of 1.7 percent and down from the previous quarter's print of 1.8 percent.  The below-forecast CPI readings will likely reinforce the dovish RBA expectations. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates in the second half of this year, having ditched its long-held tightening bias in February.  AUD/JPY, therefore, may find acceptance below the 61.8 percent Fib support of 78.76. Supporting that bearish case is the fact that Australia's 10-year government bond yield has nosedived by eight basis points to 1.80 percent following the release of the dismal CPI reading. Pivot points

AUD/USD drops to 0.7050 just after quarterly inflation data from Australia shook Aussie during early Wednesday.

Softer than expected and previous readouts of inflation data opens the gate for the RBA’s dovish comments.Risk events will be in the spotlight for now.AUD/USD drops to 0.7050 just after quarterly inflation data from Australia shook Aussie during early Wednesday. The pair previously declined on the greenback strength and marker risk-off due to the return of global investors from Easter holidays. The first quarter (Q1) 2019 inflation numbers for Australia signal weak picture of the commodity-linked economy. The headline consumer price index (CPI) grew 0.0% versus 0.2% forecast and 0.5% prior on a quarterly basis while registering a 1.3% YoY increase against 1.5% market consensus and .8% earlier. Further, RBA trimmed mean CPI flashed 0.3% against 0.4% forecast and prior but the yearly facts revealed 1.6% figure compared to 1.7% expected and 1.8% previous readout. As we have already witnessed the Aussie inflation data, market focus may shift towards the US catalysts as few signals from Australia are left to observe. The US economic calendar seems silent for the day and has no major details to observe. However, earnings season is on its run and may keep affecting the global risk sentiments. Off-late numbers from the US giants like Twitter and Coca Cola pleased equity buyers. Additionally, developments surrounding the US-China trade talks and any confirmations on likely break of China’s monetary stimulus could also direct near-term Aussie moves. Furthermore, AUD/USD is also considered as a risk barometer and hence moves surrounding the US 10-year treasury yield, another indicator of market sentiment, should also be followed closely. The US yield currently remains unchanged near 2.57% but dropped almost 2 basis points on Tuesday.AUD/USD Technical Analysis50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.7115 and 100-day SMA level of 0.7135 are likely immediate resistances ahead of the 200-day SMA level near 0.7185/90. Alternatively, sustained break of 0.7100-0.7095 support-zone, comprising seven-week-old support-line can fetch prices to 0.7050, 0.7030 and March month lows near 0.7000.

Following the above-forecasts Australia's Q4 2019 CPI readings, today's inflation figures for the Q1 showed a bleak picture, with the headline figures

Following the above-forecasts Australia's Q4 2019 CPI readings, today's inflation figures for the Q1 showed a bleak picture, with the headline figures missing expectations.Main HeadlinesQ1 CPI headline q/q +0.0% vs. 0.2% exp and 0.5% prior. Q1 CPI headline y/y +1.3% vs. 1.5% exp and 1.9% prior.

Australia Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.3%, below expectations (1.5%) in 1Q

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) came in at 1.6% below forecasts (1.7%) in 1Q

Australia Consumer Price Index (QoQ) below forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0%)

Australia RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) below expectations (0.4%) in 1Q: Actual (0.3%)

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7205 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7082.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7205 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7082. 

The White House published a statement last minutes, citing that the US Trade Representative (USTR) Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are likel

The White House published a statement last minutes, citing that the US Trade Representative (USTR) Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin are likely to travel to Beijing for trade talks starting April 30th. The Chinese delegation will visit the US for further negotiations starting May 8th.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected ¥267 billion via one year targeted medium term lending facility (TMLF) with an aim to boost lending to

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has injected ¥267 billion via one year targeted medium term lending facility (TMLF) with an aim to boost lending to small private firms.  The positive effect of an increased supply of credit to small firms could be seen in the form an uptick in the Caixin China's manufacturing PMI's over the next few months. The guage surveys the small and medium-sized export oritented units as opposed to the government PMI, which mainly focuses on the state-owned enterprises with an easy access to credit. 

EUR/JPY dropped below four-week-old ascending trend-line on Tuesday and on the decline since then, indicating brighter chances of flashing 125.00 – 124.95 area.

EUR/JPY is trading near 125.50 during early Wednesday. The quote dropped below four-week-old ascending trend-line on Tuesday and on the decline since then, indicating brighter chances of flashing 125.00 – 124.95 area again on the chart. Should the quote drops beneath 124.95, there are multiple supports between 124.60 and 124.40 whereas 124.00 can please sellers then after. In a case where prices decline below 124.00, 123.80 and 123.60 could flash on the Bears’ radar ahead of aiming 123.00. On the upside, 125.60 and immediate descending trend-line at 125.85 can keep limiting the pair’s advances, a break of which may escalate the recovery to 126.30. However, 126.75/80 is a tough resistance-zone past-126.30 which if broken could propel the quote towards 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of its recent moves near 127.25.EUR/JPY 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

Daily chart Trend: Bearish Pivot points R3 146.42 R2 146.03 R1 145.37 PP 144.97 S1 144.32 S2 143.92 S3 143.26 Updated Apr 23, 00:00 GMT

GBP/JPY is currently flatlined just above the 200-day moving average (MA) line of 144.58.  The currency pair fell 0.39 percent yesterday and closed below the support at 144.78 (April 9 low), validating the 14-day relative strength index's (RSI) move to the bearish territory below 50 seen on April 18.  The path of least resistance, therefore, is to the downside. The 200-day MA support of 144..58 could be breached during the day ahead, allowing a drop to the head-and-shoulders neckline support at 144.00.Daily chartTrend: BearishPivot points 

The USD/JPY pair trades little changed to 111.80 as Tokyo opens on Wednesday.

Traders struggled to choose between the two safe-havens during Tuesday’s risk-off.Light economic calendar keeps emphasizing political plays while looking for fresh direction.The USD/JPY pair trades little changed to 111.80 as Tokyo opens on Wednesday. The pair failed to justify the JPY’s safe-haven demand on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) was on the rise across the board. The quote remained mostly unchanged on Tuesday as traders struggled to justify their preference between the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) during risk-off sentiment. The US 10-year treasury yield, mostly known as global risk barometer, slipped 2 basis points to 2.57% on Tuesday but remained unchanged at the start of Wednesday. Global equities also rose on the back of welcome earning reports from Twitter and Coca Cola while upbeat new home sales from the US was also a reason to help the USD remain firm. Looking forward, Japan’s leading economic index for February will be released at 05:00 AM and is expected to remain unchanged at 97.4. Other than Japan data, we have little details on the economic calendar and hence political events surrounding the US-China trade talks, Brexit and geopolitical plays concerning North Korea, Libya and Syria are likely to entertain traders.  It should also be noted that investors are still nervous ahead of Friday’s US GDP data and the US earnings season is still on.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisWhile 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 111.55 restricts the pair’s near-term declines, 112.15/20 is likely important resistance on the upside. Should prices rally beyond 112.20, 112.70, and 113.00 could flash on buyers’ radar whereas 50-day SMA level of 111.20 and 110.80 might entertain sellers during the quote’s declines under 111.55.

Early on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT will see 2019's first quarter inflation data dump for the Australian economy, and the headline CPI.

Australian CPI overviewEarly on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT will see 2019's first quarter inflation data dump for the Australian economy, and the headline q/q CPI reading is expected to come in at 0.2% versus previous quarter's reading of +0.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) trimmed-mean CPI is also expected to arrive at 0.4%, steady from the previous period's 0.4%, while the annualized CPI is expected to show 1.7%, a soft decline from the previous 1.8%. Ahead of the release, TD Securities said: We expect 1.8% y/y for headline CPI (mkt +1.5%) and +1.75% for core (mkt 1.65% y/y). Tobacco, Housing and Health are the main contributors, the main drag from Transport (i.e. fuel (-10% q/q)) and Communication (-0.3% q/q). Annual core inflation at 1¾% y/y leaves the RBA on the sidelines but a significant downside miss (of around -½%pt) has been a trigger for a cut before (May 2016). Also released is skilled vacancies for March. This measure was solid, but dipped in February.How could it affect the AUD/USD?According to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, weak inflation numbers could see the AUD/USD pair testing 0.7000 mark. She further adds: The 4 hours chart shows that the pair broke below all of its moving averages, while the 20 SMA already crossed below the 100 SMA,   both some 40/50 pips above the current level. The Momentum indicator has pared its decline at its lowest in a month, while the RSI indicator maintains its downward strength, currently at 26, both supporting additional declines ahead, to be confirmed with a break below the 0.7050/60 price zone, where the pair has multiple intraday lows from last March. Support levels:  0.7055 0.7020 0.6980 Resistance levels: 0.7115 0.7140 0.7170    Key NotesAUD/USD Analysis: weak inflation could see the pair testing 0.7000 AUD/USD remains close to 0.7100 support-line ahead of Australia inflation dataAbout the Australian CPIThe Consumer Price Index released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of AUD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

AUD/JPY struggles around the two-week low of 79.30 during early Wednesday ahead of AU inflation data.

AUD/JPY struggles around the two-week low of 79.30 during early Wednesday. Failure to cross 80.65/70 horizontal-area including lows marked during December 10 and 12 of 2018 seems gradually dragged the pair downward off-late. However, the presence of multiple important supports can trigger the pair’s pullback moves. Presently, 50-day and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) confluence region around 79.15 – 79.05 could challenge sellers, a break of which highlights the importance of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of December – January downturn near 78.90. In a case prices keep trading southward after 78.90, an upward sloping support-line from January 04 at 78.30 seems crucial as it holds the quote’s dip to 77.85 and 77.50. Meanwhile, 79.65, 80.00 and 80.40/45 might entertain short-term buyers during the pair’s pullback prior to questioning them with 80.65/70 resistance. Assuming the Bulls’ capacity to clear 80.70 on a daily closing basis, 81.50 and 82.20 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart.AUD/JPY daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Recent pullback of the GBP/USD pair to 1.2930 can’t speak in favor of the bulls as the Cable continues to remain under 1.2970/60 confluence.

Brexit pessimism contrasts the US positive clues while recalling nine-week low.Qualitative catalysts to keep dominating price sentiment amid lack of economic data.Recent pullback of the GBP/USD pair to 1.2930 can’t speak in favor of the bulls as the Cable continues to remain under 1.2970/60 confluence comprising 100-day and 200-day SMA during early Wednesday. British lawmakers’ comeback to the UK parliament after Easter recess dragged the pair down to the lowest levels in nine weeks. Traders initially concentrated on the news reports signaling another challenge to the UK PM Theresa May’s position and the start of cross-party Brexit talks.  Though, clues that the cross-party talks can witness another limbo fuelled pessimism among the GBP/USD traders. On the contrary, upbeat new home sales and rising equities turned global investors to the US Dollar (USD). Neither the UK nor the US has any important data scheduled for release on Wednesday. However, qualitative catalysts like Brexit, earnings report, political plays, etc. can keep offering fresh impulse to traders.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisHaving breached 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), the quote is more likely to visit 1.2900 and 1.2880 rest-points with 1.2830 and 1.2800 expected to limit further declines. On the contrary, an upside clearance of 1.2970 can confront 1.3000 and 1.3030 resistances ahead of questioning six-week long descending trend-line at 1.3050.

Bloomberg came out with a story mentioning that Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest oil reserves, imported crude for the first time in last five years.

While supply crunch was already driving crude prices north, Bloomberg came out with a story mentioning that Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest oil reserves, imported crude for the first time in last five years. The news report said that the nation’s output fell below 1 million barrels a day to a 16-year low in March, amid rolling blackouts and U.S. sanctions.  It was further detailed in the story that as the power disruption shut oil fields, pipelines and ports, bringing oil infrastructure to a halt, state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA bought a cargo of crude from fellow OPEC member Nigeria, marking the first oil import since 2014.

On Tuesday, investors preferred the USD and oil among other avenues while equities also surged. However, the CAD became the biggest loser among G10 currencies.

Return of global traders fuelled greenback and oil.Canadian Dollar (CAD) remained nervous ahead of the BOC.Australia’s CPI and the BOC are in the spotlight from economic calendar whereas Brexit may keep dominating news headlines.With the presence of all the major global markets on the floor, Tuesday turned out as an active trading day. Investors preferred the US Dollar (USD) and the oil among other avenues while equities also surged. However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD), generally known as the Loonie, became the biggest loser among G10 currencies. Risk-off, previous bias on upbeat fundamentals and a welcome run of the equities could be termed as catalysts that helped the greenback became market favorite. Brexit remained as a factor challenging market’s risk sentiment while geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea, Iran and Libya added volume into the pessimism. Crude oil rose to the highest since October 31 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) showed concern for Iran sanctions from the US. It should also be noted that an increase in API inventories got little attention from energy traders. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) failed to enjoy crude’s up-moves as Loonie traders remained cautious ahead of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy meeting later today. Global equity traders cheered the return of major market-players as upbeat earnings from Twitter, Coca Cola and European health care stocks fuelled investor optimism. S&P 500 crossed the all-time high as it registered 0.9% gains to 2,934 whereas DJIA also secured more than half a percent gain to close around 26,656. Despite rising equities, risk-tone remained suppressed as the US 10-year treasury yield dropped nearly two basis points to 2.57% at the end of Tuesday. Looking forward, Australia’s first quarter inflation numbers will offer an active start to the Wednesday’s trading followed by German IFO numbers and BOC meeting. While Aussie CPI could become another reason for antipodeans to extend their recent slid, the expectedly soft outcome from German figures and the BOC might continue pushing investors towards the USD.Key Notes:AUD/USD remains close to 0.7100 support-line ahead of Australia inflation data Oil Technical Analysis: WTI bulls keep the market upbeat above $66.00 a barrel Wall Street soars to records on earnings reports US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY rolling into Asia near multi-month’s highs

The Guardian came out with a news report during early Wednesday that the opposition Labour party says Theresa May is unwilling to offer key Brexit concessions.

The UK PM Theresa May’s cross-party Brexit talks seem to witness little positive start as The Guardian came out with a news report during early Wednesday that the opposition Labour party says Theresa May is unwilling to offer key Brexit concessions. The report said that Labour has accused Theresa May of failing to offer any substantive changes to her Brexit deal in cross-party talks. While giving details, the news report added that the Labour sources said the government team again appeared unwilling to countenance changes to the political declaration, which sets out the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Instead, ministers offered alternative ways of giving reassurance about the issues Labour has raised, such as on environmental standards and workers’ rights, including through redrafting the withdrawal act implementation bill (WAB) and tweaking separate planned government bills.

AUD/USD is taking the rounds of 0.7100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday ahead of the key inflation data.

Bulls preferred greenback over other G10 currencies amid broad fundamental strength of the US economy.Aussie inflation data will be in the spotlight.AUD/USD is taking the rounds of 0.7100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The pair slipped beneath seven-week-old support to the lowest in 20 days on Tuesday but couldn’t offer a D1 close under the support-line and is still seesaws close to the rest-point. Coming up in the investor's radar will be first quarter inflation data from Australia. While the US Dollar (USD) was strongly in demand due to overall risk-off on the back of upbeat US new home sales and welcome equity performance, the Aussie was suppressed on expectations of a fewer monetary boost from its largest consumer, China. Global traders focused on the pre-Easter strength of the US fundamentals and fewer political tensions concerning the world’s largest economy while preferring the greenback over other G10 currencies. Macro risk barometer, the US 10-year treasury yield, was down 2 basis points to 2.57% by the end of Tuesday’s trading. Headline consumer price index (CPI) and RBA’s trimmed mean CPI for Q1 2019 will bear market attention during the Asian session. The CPI is likely being on a back-foot with expectations favoring +0.2% and 1.5% marks versus +0.5% and 1.8% respective priors on QoQ and yearly basis. Further, the trimmed mean CPI might remain unchanged at 0.4% on a quarterly basis but could slip to .7% from 1.8% on a YoY format.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisSustained break of 0.7100-0.7095 support-zone becomes pre-requisite for the Aussie to aim for 0.7050, 0.7030 and March month lows near 0.7000. Meanwhile, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.7115, followed by 100-day SMA level of 0.7135, can entertain short-term buyers during a pullback ahead of challenging them with 200-day SMA level near 0.7185/90.

The NZD/USD pair is still struggling around 0.6655, the least since January 03, at the start of the Asian session on Wednesday.

Lack of major positives drove global traders to concentrate more on the USD rise.Australian inflation data will be watched closely due to the absence of catalysts at home.Despite recovering nearly 30 pips from the sixteen week low, the NZD/USD pair is still struggling around 0.6655, the least since January 03, at the start of the Asian session on Wednesday. The Kiwi pair dropped yesterday as the return of global traders brought across the board strength by the US Dollar (USD) as lack of major details and eco-political uncertainties surrounding rest of the globe pushed investors to the greenback. Adding to the USD rise could be better than expected new home sales data and a record high daily closing by leading equity indices like S&P500. There were few drivers at home amid prevalent speculations concerning a break in China’s monetary stimulus. Moving on, absence of major catalysts from New Zealand could continue disturbing the Kiwi traders but inflation data from Australia, the largest customer, might offer some direction to the moves. Australian is scheduled to publish first quarter (Q1) consumer price index (CPI) and trimmed mean CPI details for the year 2019. The CPI (QoQ) could soften to 0.2% from 0.5% whereas trimmed mean CPI, RBA’s preferred version of inflation, may remain unchanged on a quarterly basis to 0.4%.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisLate-2018 stops around 0.6630, followed by 0.6610 and January lows near 0.6585 are likely nearby supports, a break of which could flash 0.6570 and 0.6550 on the chart. On the upside, the pair needs to cross 0.6670 and 0.6710 resistances to regain its stand above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6730.

Oil daily chart WTI is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). Oil 4-hour chart Crude oil WTI bulls keep the buying pres

Oil daily chartWTI is trading in a bull trend above its main simple moving averages (SMAs).
Oil 4-hour chart
Crude oil WTI bulls keep the buying pressure above $66.00 a barrel.  
Oil 30-minute chart
WTI is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the short-term.The level to beat for bulls is seen at 66.60 followed by 67.00 figure. A correction towards 65.60 or 64.20 cannot be ruled out.Additional key levels 

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