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Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

środa, maj 23, 2018

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) outline what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe will comment in his speech about China's econ

Analysts at National Australia Bank (NAB) outline what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe will comment in his speech about China's economy, financial system, and the implications for Australia due today at 0805 GMT in Sydney.Key Quotes:“Will be carefully listened to, given the global focus on US-trade relations and Australia's high economic dependence on Chinese economic growth and access to Chinese markets.  Of course, it will also present an opportunity for the Governor to provide another update on the domestic economy, including (last week's data showing) stagnant growth in wages and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, despite still solid employment growth.  Lowe is scheduled to speak on the performance of the Chinese economy and financial system and draw out the implications for Australia, all highly topical, something the Bank has been drawing attention to for some months.“

Asian stocks dropped on Wednesday as investors took note of the renewed geopolitical tensions. Scorecard Japan's Nikkei index is down 1.24 percent

Asian stocks report losses as investors take note of risks from Turkey and North Korea.Risk aversion put a bid under the Japanese Yen.Asian stocks dropped on Wednesday as investors took note of the renewed geopolitical tensions.ScorecardJapan's Nikkei index is down 1.24 percent Stocks in Australia and New Zealand are reporting 0.24 percent and 0.44 percent, respectively. Shanghai Composite has lost 0.80 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng has shed 1.13 percent. US stocks turned red yesterday after President Trump cast doubt on a possible summit with North Korea. Investors also turned cautious after Trump said he is not pleased with recent trade talks between the United States and China, thus pouring cold water over the optimism generated by the US and China's decision to abstain from imposing punitive tariffs. The risk-off tone in the equities also put a bid under the anti-risk Japanese Yen. Thus, USD/JPY fell to a key rising trendline support. Meanwhile,  the major European equity index futures are trading mixed. Germany's DAX futures are trading flat to negative while France's CAC futures are up 0.12 percent.  

The Nikkei Asian Review, a Japanese daily, reported on Wednesday that the Japanese government is seen pushing back its timeframe for achieving a balan

The Nikkei Asian Review, a Japanese daily, reported on Wednesday that the Japanese government is seen pushing back its timeframe for achieving a balanced budget by five years to fiscal 2025, as cited by Reuters. However, the Abe administration may set an interim target to review progress in getting the country’s fiscal house in order. Japan had originally aimed to achieve a budget surplus in fiscal 2020.macro

The USD/JPY one month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) fell to -0.95 - the lowest level since April 20 vs -0.65 on April 18. The decline in the risk

USD/JPY risk reversals hit a one-month low, shows rising demand for JPY calls.Indicates investors are prepping for a deeper pullback in the USD/JPY.The USD/JPY one month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) fell to -0.95 - the lowest level since April 20 vs -0.65 on April 18. The decline in the risk reversals represents a rise in the implied volatility premium for the Japanese Yen calls (bullish bets). The risk reversals add credence to the drop in the USD/JPY pair from 111.40 to 110.42 and indicate investors could be hedging (via JPY calls) against a deeper drop in the spot.JPY1MRR 

The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek into today’s key market moving events, which include the UK CPI report due at 0830 GMT and FOMC May mee

The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek into today’s key market moving events, which include the UK CPI report due at 0830 GMT and FOMC May meeting minutes scheduled for release at 1800 GMT.Key Quotes:“UK inflation data: We forecast the headline rates of CPIH and CPI to have risen by 0.1pp in April to 2.4% and 2.6% y/y, respectively, driven by a rebound in clothing prices, which were very soft in March relative to usual seasonal patterns. There is a degree of uncertainty associated with this print as a result given the elevated volatility displayed by clothing prices recently. We forecast headline RPI will rise to 3.4% y/yFOMC minutes: The May FOMC statement was largely inconsequential, but there were some important language changes around inflation, including the introduction of the use of "symmetric" when discussing the outlook for inflation. In addition, the statement dropped the language that the committee will be "monitoring inflation developments closely."  We interpret these changes as signals that the committee sees downside risk to inflation as having diminished and will tolerate a modest overshoot of its inflation target, should it materialize. We will look to the minutes for clarification.  In addition, we expect a more ranging discussion about potential language changes that may be forthcoming, including whether monetary policy is expected to become restrictive over time.  With a new chair in place, we expect some other reorganization of the statement over time to suit both the outlook for monetary policy and the chair's preferred communication style.”

The bid tone around the anti-risk Japanese Yen, pushing the GBP/JPY to a 9-day low of 148.13 as the Asian equities turned risk-averse. As of writing,

GBP/JPY fell to 148.13 in Asia - the lowest level since May 14.Eyes UK CPI release and action in the stock markets.The bid tone around the anti-risk Japanese Yen, pushing the GBP/JPY to a 9-day low of 148.13 as the Asian equities turned risk-averse. As of writing, the pair is trading at 148.30 - down 0.40 percent from the previous day's close of 148.90. The pair's decline from 150.00 (May 18 high) has left another lower high (bearish pattern) on the daily chart. Clearly, the bears are gaining strength ahead of the UK CPI release, which is expected to show the cost of living rose 0.5 percent month-on-month in April. A below-forecast reading could reduce UK rate hike sentiment and push GBP/JPY to new multi-week lows.  Meanwhile, an above-forecast print would be good news for GBP bulls.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsThe support is seen at 147.48 (May 10 low), 147.05 (May 8 low) and 146.23 (March 7 low). Meanwhile, resistance is lined up at 148.74 (10-day MA), 149.39 (200-day MA) and 150.00 (psychological hurdle).  

The US President Donald Trump said late on Tuesday that he will propose new tax cuts sometime prior to November, before the US Congress in midterm ele

The US President Donald Trump said late on Tuesday that he will propose new tax cuts sometime prior to November, before the US Congress in midterm elections, Reuters reports. Trump said in a speech to the Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion group, “We’re going to be submitting additional tax cuts sometime prior to November.”   Trump said he would meet with Republican Representative Kevin Brady, Chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, about the proposal. He did not give any details, Reuters added.

The Japanese Yen is on the rise, possibly due to risk aversion in the equities. The USD/JPY pair fell to 110.42 - the rising trendline support, and w

USD/JPY is flirting with rising trendline (drawn from the Mar. 26 low and April 18 low).Risk-averse Asian equities may have put a bid under the Japanese Yen.The Japanese Yen is on the rise, possibly due to risk aversion in the equities. The USD/JPY pair fell to 110.42 - the rising trendline support, and was last seen trading at 110.50.   The decline from 110.92 to 110.42 could be associated with the risk-off tone in the equities. As of writing, stocks in Australia and New Zealand are down 0.22 percent and 0.40 percent respectively. The Shanghai Composite is down 0.60 percent and Japan's Nikkei is reporting a 1.2 percent drop. Further, the 10-year treasury yield is down 1.5 basis points at 3.05 percent. Clearly, the risk aversion seems to have boosted demand for the anti-risk assets like the Japanese Yen and treasuries.  The risk-off moves seem to have gathered pace after reports hit the wires that President Trump is not pleased with recent trade talks between the United States and China. Note, the pullback in the USD/JPY does not come as a surprise as 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was most overbought in over a year. USD/JPY Technical LevelsAcceptance below 110.42 (trendline support) would mean the rally from the March 26 low of 104.63 has ended. However, only a daily close below the 200-day moving average (MA) located at 110.18 would put the bears back into the driver's seat. Below 200-day MA, major support is seen at 109.46 (April 25 high). Meanwhile,  resistance is seen at 110.78 (5-day MA), 111.19 (previous day's high) and 111.40 (Monday's high).  

The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service is out with its review of New Zealand’s annual budget released earlier this month, with the key

The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service is out with its review of New Zealand’s annual budget released earlier this month, with the key headlines found below. New Zealand's budget highlights the new government's commitment to maintaining fiscal surpluses and reducing debt.  Supporting Moody's assessment of the country's very high fiscal strength. Strength in New Zealand's strong public finances provides greater fiscal flexibility to counter shocks than is the case for some other high-income and highly rated sovereigns.

The NZD/JPY is knocking lower in Wednesday's early Asia session, backing into 76.50 following headlines from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ)

Kiwi slumping, Yen climbing as risk-off statements combine with dovish comments from the RBNZ.The NZD's technical correction looks to be over quickly.The NZD/JPY is knocking lower in Wednesday's early Asia session, backing into 76.50 following headlines from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) McDermott. The Kiwi is steeply off of its recent high of 77.50 against the Yen, but risk aversion is creeping back into markets after US President Donald Trump poured water on investor hopes that US-China relations had improved significantly recently when the two nations agreed to put any further tariffs "on hold" while they continue trade negotiations. On the Kiwi side, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) note on 'unconventional monetary policy' left traders scratching their heads and the NZD spiked briefly early in the Asia session, while the RBNZ's McDermott sent the Kiwi floundering with comments on planning for another crisis and failing to walk back the central bank's earlier comments about hitting a negative cash rate.NZD/JPY levels to watchThe Kiwi has priced in a new technical swing high against the Yen at 77.50, a steep tumble from the last marked high in April at 79.60, and if the bearish correction fails to break through the current low at 75.60 then a bullish recovery could take over and send the pair into the 200-day SMA, currently at 78.60.

According to the latest Reuters poll, a majority of the economists believe that the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations is most likely to be the

According to the latest Reuters poll, a majority of the economists believe that the final outcome of the Brexit negotiations is most likely to be the European Union (EU) and UK free trade agreement (FTA).Key Findings:Britain's government has handled negotiations with the European Union over its departure from the bloc poorly, according to all economists in a Reuters poll "The negotiations have been a shambles, primarily because the government opted to implement a strategy which was not on the ballot paper and gave an insufficient thought about how to implement it prior to triggering Article 50 (to launch the Brexit process)," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.  The chance of a disorderly departure, with no deal agreed by the end of March 2019, was put at 20 percent, the same as in last month's poll.  An EU-UK free trade agreement was picked as the most likely outcome of talks Second most likely was European Economic Area membership, under which Britain would pay to maintain full access to the EU Single Market Followed by leaving without a deal and instead of trading under basic World Trade Organization rules. Bank of England expected to hike by25 basis point in August The second rise to 1.0 percent is predicted just after Britain is scheduled to leave the EU next March "Assuming that economic activity bounces back in the second quarter and CPI inflation proves stickier over the coming months than it did in Q1, we expect the Bank of England to deliver a quarter-point increase in interest rates at the August meeting," said Nikesh Sawjani at Lloyds Bank.     

AUD/USD has hit a fresh session low of 0.7562, possibly due to a weaker-than-expected Aussie construction sector data. Construction work done figure

AUD/USD is reporting losses after a weaker-than-expected rebound in construction activity.Governor Lowe's speech and FOMC minutes awaited for direction.AUD/USD has hit a fresh session low of 0.7562, possibly due to a weaker-than-expected Aussie construction sector data. Construction work done figure for the first quarter came in at 0.2 percent, missing the estimate of 1 percent by a big margin. The weaker-than-expected rebound from the previous quarter's 19.4 percent drop seems to have weighed over the Aussie dollar.Trades below inverse head-and-shoulders necklineThe currency pair faded the spike to 0.7605 yesterday and fell below 0.7578 - inverse head-and-shoulders neckline (former resistance), trapping the bulls on the wrong side of the trade. Moreover, rally in copper prices and the CRB index (at highest since Oct 2015) failed to put a bid under the Aussie dollar. Thus, the pair is trading on the back foot and may extend losses further if RBA Governor Lowe sounds dovish and the Fed minutes boost the odds of faster rate hikes.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAs of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7560. The resistance is seen at 0.7578 (neckline resistance), 0.7605 (previous day's high), 0.7631 (50-day MA). Meanwhile, support is lined up at 0.7546 (5-day MA), 0.7531 (10-day MA), and 0.75 (psychological level).  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor and Head of Economics John McDermott was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making some

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor and Head of Economics John McDermott was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, making some comments on the monetary policy in an interview.Key Headlines:Currently no prospect of unconventional monetary policies. RBNZ would consider buying foreign government bonds in a crisis. It’s prudent to plan for another crisis. RBNZ prepared to use QE in a crisis.

Australia Construction Work Done below forecasts (1%) in 1Q: Actual (0.2%)

US President Trump is cooling off optimism regarding the recent goodwill between the US and China over their ongoing trade negotiations. Markets hit t

US President Trump is cooling off optimism regarding the recent goodwill between the US and China over their ongoing trade negotiations. Markets hit the new week rallying after headlines broke that the two countries are abstaining from any further tariffs, but Trump is souring the rally quickly.Key quotes"Investors were cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump tempered optimism over progress made so far in trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. Trump said on Tuesday he was not pleased with recent trade talks between the United States and China, souring the improved market sentiment following weekend comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that trade war is “on hold”. His remarks followed Beijing’s announcement that it would cut import tariffs for automobiles and car parts. Trump also floated a plan to fine ZTE Corp, and shake up its management as his administration considered rolling back more severe penalties. “The market probably became overly optimistic on Monday. The reality is the talks are still continuing as they haven’t made headway on various issues, including intellectual properties,” said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Further weighing on prices of risk assets, Trump also said there was a “substantial chance” his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will not take place as planned on June 12 amid concerns that Kim is resistant to giving up his nuclear weapons."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.3773 vs previous day's fix of 6.3799

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.3773 vs previous day's fix of 6.3799

The AUD/JPY is drifting lower in Wednesday's early session, testing just beneath the 84.00 major level. The Aussie rebounded strongly to start off th

Aussie looks set to continue slumping after catching some lift over 84.00 handle.AUD traders are sidelined ahead of RBA's Lowe speech due today.The AUD/JPY is drifting lower in Wednesday's early session, testing just beneath the 84.00 major level. The Aussie rebounded strongly to start off this week, but that bullish momentum is souring quickly, and the AUD/JPY is stuttering its way back down after making a two-month high at 84.48 yesterday. In the early Tokyo session Japan's Nikkei Manufacturing PMI printed at 52.5, below the expected 53.6 and a steeper contraction of the previous reading of 53.8. After that was Australia's Westpac Leading Index for April which printed at 0.2%, a welcome bump higher after the last period's -0.2%. The Aussie sees Construction Work Done at 01:30 GMT next, expected at 1.0% compared to the previous reading of -19.4%, an incredibly steep contraction. The big headline for the Aussie today will be a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe, who is slated to speak at 08:00 GMT.AUD/JPY levels to watchAs FXStreet's Omkar Godbole noted about the pair's technical stance, "multiple daily closes above 84.17 (100-day MA) would allow a rally to 85.63 (200-day MA), above which a major resistance is seen at 85.80 (61.8% Fib R of Jan-Mar drop). On the downside, support is seen at 83.50 (5-day MA), 82.92 (10-day MA), 82.60 (21-day MA)."

USD/JPY has been oscillating in a familiar range around the 111.00 level and has opened in Tokyo with bullish intentions, although lacking conviction

USD/JPY oscillating in a familiar range, a break to 110.40 could be of interest to the bulls.USD/JPY capped in Tokyo by 100-hr SMA and below the 111 handle still. Eyes will turn to the FOMC minutes where traders seek further clarification that June is a dead cert for an additional 25bp rate hike. USD/JPY has been oscillating in a familiar range around the 111.00 level and has opened in Tokyo with bullish intentions, although lacking conviction and capped ahead of the 100-hr SMA so far. Currently, the price is 1110.85 and the pair has made a high of 110.92 and a low of 110.72. Wall Street stocks: Dow Jones falls nearly 200 points as Trump is not satisfied with China trade talks The overnight high was 111.07 and the support of 110.85 gave way for aforementioned lows scored in early Asia as the yen plays catch up with the sour risk tone that developed toads the end of the US session. The benchmarks closed for the US session around the lows of the day while uncertainty over trade policy and other geopolitical matters remained high - (ZTE and North Korean remain up in the air).  FOMC eyed:Meanwhile, the dollar was oscillating at the midpoint of the 93.2910-93.7340 range while the US 10 year yields rose from 3.05% to 3.08% before slipping back to 3.06%.  Traders will seek further clarification from the FOMC minutes that June is a dead cert for an additional 25bp rate hike.  Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the May FOMC minutes after the statement provided little new information for our views on the likely trajectory of policy: "We expect that the minutes may reveal a more nuanced discussion about the changes to the inflation language in the statement (emphasizing “symmetric” and dropping “monitoring inflation closely”). Moreover, the minutes will likely show the Committee discounted the slight deceleration in Q1 real GDP growth while highlighting the positive US economic outlook. For policy, we continue to expect a total of four rate hikes this year, one more than the current SEP median for 2018. The May minutes will likely include some signal of the widely expected June hike and potentially give additional information as to whether the Committee is likely to revise up its 2018 rate forecast. For other discussions on the outlook, language on US trade policy and financial conditions will be of particular interest, especially given the slight softening of business confidence surveys over the past few weeks. Moreover, with policymakers frequently referring to a potential inversion of the yield curve after the May FOMC meeting, the minutes could show an in-depth discussion of the policy implications of an inverted yield curve. Finally, the March minutes noted a discussion about revising statement language in the future to acknowledge monetary policy would eventually move from an accommodative to neutral or restrictive stance. Combined with San Francisco Fed President Williams’ recent comments about revisiting the statement’s forward guidance language, any additional discussion on the statement in the May minutes would be of note."USD/JPY levelsUSDJPY: Buy US$Jpy @ 110.40Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet explained that the 4 hours chart shows that the price consolidating above its weekly opening and bullish moving averages, while the Momentum indicator is currently bouncing from its mid-line and the RSI hovers around 57: "All of which results in a neutral-to-bullish stance, although a break above the weekly high at 111.39 is needed to confirm another leg higher."

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.2% to 0.2% in April

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI registered at 52.5, below expectations (53.6) in May

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Our model1 projects the fix to be 31 pips lower than th

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 31 pips lower than the previous fix (6.3768 from 6.3799) and 59 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.3709. The basket implied change is 69 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.3778 from 6.3709)."

Goldman Sachs Economic Research is out with a hefty note on global markets, and the hazards present in liquidity-sucking algorithmic trading, also kno

Goldman Sachs Economic Research is out with a hefty note on global markets, and the hazards present in liquidity-sucking algorithmic trading, also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT.Key quotes"Why liquidity risks may be rising: As we first noted after the VIX spike in February, the rising frequency of "flash crashes" across many major markets may be an important early warning sign that something is not quite right with the current state of trading liquidity. These warning signs plus the rapid growth of high-frequency trading (HFT) and its near-total dominance in many of the largest and most widely traded markets prompt us to more carefully consider the possibility (not necessarily the probability) that the long expansion accompanied by relatively low market volatility may have helped disguise an under-appreciated rise in "market fragility."  HFTs know the price of everything and the value of nothing: One theory that has been proposed for why market fragility could be higher today is that because HFTs supply liquidity without taking into account fundamental information, they are forced to withdraw liquidity during periods of market stress to avoid being adversely selected. Despite this disadvantage under stress conditions, their informational advantage over human trades under normal conditions has allowed them to grow to become the dominant liquidity providers in all of the largest, most liquid markets. In our view. this at least raises the risk that as machines have replaced people, and speed has replaced capital, the inability of the market's liquidity providers to process complex information may lead to surprisingly large drops in liquidity when the next crisis hits.  Future flash crashes may not end well: While we focus on one particular theory for why "trading fragility' may be rising (namely, adverse selection), we see other risks that are in some sense more obvious. For example, the substitution of speed for capital means that ever larger amounts of trading volume are backed by too-thin capital cushions; liquidity supply could collapse on a large operational loss. Alternatively, if a flash crash were to occur against a more negative macro backdrop, it could inadvertently reinforce the market's interpretation of "bad news." Given the rapid evolution of the market. there are many other possible reasons to worry about a rise in trading fragility. not least of which are the "unknown unknowns." "

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is out with a note on 'unconventional monetary policy', or policy measures since the financial crisis of 2008-0

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is out with a note on 'unconventional monetary policy', or policy measures since the financial crisis of 2008-09.Key highlightsRBNZ sees significant room to ease in "conventional" ways. Does not project a significant decrease in the overnight cash rate. The RBNZ believes conventional policy remains effective. But, the OCR could be lowered into 'modestly negative' territory. Specific targeting of term lending facilities could also be introduced.

As the markets get set for some highly important data events, namely PMI's, UK CPI and the FOMC minutes, Forex today was pretty confined with the doll

Markets get set for some highly important data events, namely PMI's, UK CPI and the FOMC minutes.The dollar, for the most part, oscillating between the range of 93.2910-93.7340.Geopolitics back up in the air, risk turns sour late in NY.As the markets get set for some highly important data events, namely PMI's, UK CPI and the FOMC minutes, Forex today was pretty confined with the dollar, for the most part, oscillating between the range of 93.2910-93.7340 while US 10 year yields rose from 3.05% to 3.08% before slipping back to 3.06%.  There was a lack of data from the US session and European markets were in the hands of optimists where Italian 10-year rates dropped by 7 bps while markets figured the Italian's will not be able to get over the EU's hurdles when it comes to the proposed spending plan - nor was it clear that the President will endorse the proposed populist government.  Meanwhile, for the US session, moves were largely driven by geopolitical developments and risk suddenly turned sour late in the session with the benchmarks ending near their lows of the day as uncertainty over trade policy and other geopolitical issues remained high - (ZTE and North Korean tensions).Key currency actionAs for other currencies, the euro hurdled the hourly moving averages when the Italian BTP yields contracted on headlines that the Italian government may find the EU obstacles to its spending plans too high. However, there was then a newswire that the eurosceptic Savona would be named as the economic minister, pressuring the euro once again and sending Italian yields on a round trip. The single currency takes a trip back to below 1.1770 and drifts sideways in a narrow chop into the NY close at 1.1778. Sterling has been on a similar trajectory as the euro vs the dollar on Tuesday, bid up through the hourly MAs in an early European spike to a high of 1.3491, (the hawkish Vlieghe steer), and a return ticket back to 1.3413, (a few pips shy of Asia low of 1.3412). Headwinds from Brexit will eventually fade, according to the MPC member Vlieghe who expects slightly more rate hikes from the BoE over the next 3 years than what markets do. Cable was ending the NY shift at 1.3425, -0.04% within an NY range of between 1.3466-1.3414. The cross ended the day at 0.8722 and lower by -0.14% as political angst and pressures switch to the' left-hand side'.  The yen was moving around 111 the figure in a tight range of between 110.79/18 the early European high. Sellers emerged there and send the pair down to the aforementioned lows in late European trade from where bargain hunters emerged and sent the pair back to challenge the 111 handle with a NY morning session score of 111.07 the high. The consensus is that the pair will remain heavy while below the presumed option barrier level at 111.50 and through the key descending resistance level around 111.10/40. As for the commodity complex, oil consolidates the recent highs as noise wires suggest that OPEC will boost production to cover a decline in Venezuela and Iran, (However, even if OPEC decided to ease the output restrictions in June it may take three to four months to put into effect). Meanwhile, gold can't get off the floor but copper got a boost in Shanghai and extended the upside in London where highs were faded in NY to the support of the 21-hr SMA. AUD/USD drifted higher in early NY and broke the European high of 0.9706. AUD/USD was capped at 0.9715 and closed near to the two-week highs. NZ /USD also made a two-week high at 0.6975 before dropping back to 0.6930. Key notes from US session:Funda-FX wrap: N.Korea /US summit losing tractionWall Street stocks: Dow Jones falls nearly 200 points as Trump is not satisfied with China trade talksKey events ahead:Analysts at Westpac noted the key events ahead as follows:  The only Australian data of note for the week is due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK: Q1 construction work done. This is usually a helpful guide to the construction component of GDP (due 6 June) so is worth watching. But in recent quarters, the headline number has been severely distorted by an imported LNG platform: Q3 17 was +16.6%qtr, Q4 17 was -19.4%. If the distortions have passed, then we should see a gain of around 1%. Public infrastructure should be a positive, while private engineering should be a negative, as LNG projects are completed. RBA governor Lowe speaks on “Australia's Deepening Economic Relationship with China: Opportunities and Risks” at the Australia-China Relations Institute, Sydney, from 6:05pmSyd/4:05pm Sing/HK. Malaysia and Singapore release April CPI, with inflation low in both countries."

The USD/TRY has driven higher in the overnight session, spiking to a high of 4.7960, the pair's highest recorded value. The Lira is rebounding back in

TRY continues to tumble as faith erodes and Turkey's economy crumbles.Hyperinflation beginning to set in, every percentage rise in TRY raises borrowing costs for government another 5 billion Lira.The USD/TRY has driven higher in the overnight session, spiking to a high of 4.7960, the pair's highest recorded value. The Lira is rebounding back into 1.7365, but inflation continues to pummel Turkey's economy even as the country's central bank sits on the lidelines, unable to do anything as establishments throw around words like 'hyperinflation'. A court in Turkey has handed down over a hundred death sentences today for individuals who were allegedly involved in the failed 2016 coup u0rising against Turkey's Presiident Ergodan. Inflation has continued to run rampant, and markets have been testing to see whether the central bank's bluffs about intense market intervention are true or not.USD/TRY levels to watchResistance levels aren't to be had with the currencies going so one-directly as of late.Immediate support can be found at yesterday's high of 4.67520, with further support from the last swing low at 1.5414.

As reported by The Financial Times, US lawmakers have passed a watering-down of Dodd-Frank financial regulations, and the bill is headed to the White

As reported by The Financial Times, US lawmakers have passed a watering-down of Dodd-Frank financial regulations, and the bill is headed to the White House to be approved by President Trump.Key quotes"US lawmakers have voted for the biggest changes to financial regulation in eight years, approving a bill that gives banks outside Wall Street’s top tier respite from rules designed to prevent a repeat of the last crisis. The bill, which passed by a vote of 258 to 159, is seen by some as Congress’s most significant accomplishment since tax reform last year. It does not, however, come close to dismantling Dodd-Frank, an ambition Mr Trump championed in his election campaign."

The AUD/USD traded mostly flat through Tuesday's session, lifting to a high of 0.7605 before bedding back down heading into the overnight session, cur

Aussie goes flat for Tuesday ahead of RBA head speech.Early data for Wednesday unlikely to drive much volatility.The AUD/USD traded mostly flat through Tuesday's session, lifting to a high of 0.7605 before bedding back down heading into the overnight session, currently trading near 0.7575. The Aussie is likely to trade flat heading into Wednesday's action as Aussie traders await a speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Governor, Philip Lowe. Governor Lowe speaks at 08:00 GMT today, and traders may be sidelined as they await his talking points regarding China and their interwoven relationship with Australia. Before that will be the Westpac Leading Index at 00:30 GMT (last -0.2%) and Construction Work Done at 01:30 GMT (forecast 1.0%, last -19.4%), but both indicators are low-tier and unlikely to drive much market reaction ahead of Lowe's speech later.AUD/USD levels to watchThe 0.7600 handle may have proven to be too much for Aussie bulls to handle, and the AUD/USD has dropped a bearish hammer on Daily candles, but as FXStreet's Valeria Bednarik noted, key support could be hampering further downside: "from a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart shows that the pair stalled its recovery around a modestly bearish 200 SMA and a few pips below the 50% retracement of the mentioned decline at 0.7620, but also that so far is holding above the mentioned Fibonacci level at 0.7565, the immediate support. The 20 SMA in the mentioned chart gains upward traction below the current level, while technical indicators eased modestly but remain well above their mid-lines, indicating limited selling interest for the time being." Support levels: 0.7520 0.7470 0.7435   Resistance levels: 0.7590 0.7625 0.7660

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6937 following a bid from the 200-hr SMA at 0.6919, (0.6920 overnight lows), in a minor correction of the bearish sl

NZD/USD: capped ahead of key resistance of the 21-D SMA and 0.70 the round psychological figure.NZD/USD: risk sours in late NY, Kiwi can't find bullish traction.NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6937 following a bid from the 200-hr SMA at 0.6919, (0.6920 overnight lows), in a minor correction of the bearish slide from the highest levels since 15th May.  The Kiwi is on the verge of testing the bear's commitments around the descending 21-D SMA up at 0.6986, although it has moved into a consolidation at this stage, unable to break up from beneath the weight of the market's preference for the US dollar, (DXY range: 93.2910-93.7340). In NY, the risk was soured towards the end of the session, with US stocks dropping to near their lows of the day as uncertainty over trade policy and other geopolitical issues remained high.0.70 level could be a hard nut to crack"Perhaps it was news of EU-NZ FTA trade talks, the further thawing in the US-China trade spat, or just an extension of yesterday’s squeeze, but the NZD pushed up to resistance near 0.70. But moves were not sustained, as the 0.70 level will likely be a hard nut to crack. We expect consolidation here, but retain a downside medium-term bias," analysts at ANZ argued who sighted that the NZ market will likely open little changed after a quiet session in US rates markets.NZD/USD levelsSupport comes in at 0.6920, 10-D SMA and 0.6850 below there. To the upside, 0.6950 and 0.6980 mark key levels of interest, (21-D SMA 0.6986). The next upside key target beyond there is located at  0.7080. The NZD/USD has taken out the 200-month moving average resistance at 0.6980. However, weekly technicals remain bearish and RSIs are biased to the downside. Below 0.6850, 0.6780 comes as next downside target meeting the lows of mid-Nov 2017.
 

In a market wrap, analysts at Westpac explained that European equities rallied modestly –noting that even Italian shares and bonds recaptured some los

In a market wrap, analysts at Westpac explained that European equities rallied modestly –noting that even Italian shares and bonds recaptured some lost ground. Key Quotes:"US stocks held small gains for much of the day but then rolled over into the close." "News and data flow was limited but various comments by President Trump didn’t help, including saying that there is a “substantial chance” that the 12 June US-North Korea summit won’t happen and saying he is not really pleased with the progress of trade talks with China. AUD/USD initially rose from 0.7580 to 0.7605 – a one-month high – before slipping back to 0.7570/75. NZD similarly made a two-week high at 0.6975 before slipping back to 0.6930. AUD/NZD rose from 1.0900 to 1.0947 – a four-month high – before trimming gains. EUR/USD made a round trip from 1.1770 to 1.1830 and back. USD/JPY ranged sideways between 110.80 and 111.20. GBP/USD was lively, bouncing as high as 1.3492 in London trade on some unexpectedly hawkish testimony by Bank of England MPC members. In particular, Gertjan Vlieghe suggested that the bank rate could be lifted as many as 6 times over the next 3 years, twice as fast as projected in the May Inflation Report. The pound’s gains faded in NY trade however. The US 10yr treasury yield rose from 3.05% to 3.08% before slipping back to 3.06%, 2yr yields holding around 2.57%. Fed fund futures yields continued to predict a rate hike in June plus at least another in H2 2018. The Richmond Fed’s regional district PMI for May was robust, the composite index swinging from -3 to +16 in May (consensus: +13). The detail was almost all stronger with shipments, new orders, prices paid and received, employment and wages all firming in the month. The stronger read mimics firmer trends in other regional surveys released so far in May, albeit not quite to the same extent; the rise in the Richmond index mostly just recoups the prior month’s fall while other surveys like last week’s Philly Fed survey showed unexpected 45 year highs for new orders."

The three main US indices closed the day in the red on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index lost 0.31% to 2,724.44 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average droppe

The main US stock indices fell on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump said he was not satisfied with the US-China trade talks. Trump said that the historic meeting with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12 had a "very substantial chance" of not happening. The three main US indices closed the day in the red on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index lost 0.31% to 2,724.44 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.72% or 178.88 points to 24,834.41. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.21% to close at 7,378.46.  The US stock indices fell on Tuesday as the US President Donald Trump said that he was “not satisfied” with the talks between the United States and China. He called the negotiations of last week “a start” while the US administration is finalizing a deal to find a solution to the trade imbalances with China.  He additionally said that the meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore on June 12 had a "very substantial chance" of not happening. Trump said that North Korea has to meet conditions for the summit to take place and if there are not met the meeting might happen “later”. Meanwhile, on the commodities front, crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark hit a new three-year high at $70.83 a barrel on Venezuela and Iran sanctions while gold stabilized its recent decline around the $1290 a troy ounce as the greenback is having a pause. Indeed, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is ending the day slightly up at 93.59 while the 10-year Treasury yield alos traded sideways closing at 3.062% on Tuesday’s trading.Dow Jones Industrial Average: daily chart