การเตือนความเสี่ยง: CFD เป็นตราสารที่มีความซับซ้อนและมีความเสี่ยงสูงในการที่จะสูญเสียเงินอย่างรวดเร็วจากเลเวอเรจ 83% ของบัญชีนักลงทุนรายย่อยเสียเงินเมื่อซื้อขาย CFD กับผู้ให้บริการรายนี้ คุณควรพิจารณาว่าคุณเข้าใจถึงระบบการทำงานของ CFD และพร้อมรับความเสี่ยงในการสูญเสียเงินที่สูงแล้วหรือไม่
การเตือนความเสี่ยง: CFD เป็นตราสารที่มีความซับซ้อนและมีความเสี่ยงสูงในการที่จะสูญเสียเงินอย่างรวดเร็วจากเลเวอเรจ 83% ของบัญชีนักลงทุนรายย่อยเสียเงินเมื่อซื้อขาย CFD กับผู้ให้บริการรายนี้ คุณควรพิจารณาว่าคุณเข้าใจถึงระบบการทำงานของ CFD และพร้อมรับความเสี่ยงในการสูญเสียเงินที่สูงแล้วหรือไม่

ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

พฤหัสบดี, ธันวาคม 5, 2019

United States Factory Orders (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in October

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index rose from previous 51.8 to 58.4 in November

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 60, above forecasts (53.8) in November

US stocks are rising for a second consecutive day as investor optimism grows for President Trump to abandon his December 15th tariff threat. This tari

Trade, UK Election, Oil, Gold, Bitcoin US stocks are rising for a second consecutive day as investor optimism grows for President Trump to abandon his December 15th tariff threat. This tariff would end up punishing the US consumer and Trump wants to see a strong stock market with a happy consumer as we near the 2020 election. Safe-havens fell alongside Treasuries, but the moves are limited this morning. Read more…   GBP/USD confronts 200-week SMA amid upbeat polls, UK political plays GBP/USD seesaws near 1.3115 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The pair nears the multi-month peak marked Wednesday amid optimism surrounding the United Kingdom’s (UK) political plays. Be it expecting a soft Brexit or no rate change till 2022, versus the previous forecast of 2021, Reuters seems to be optimistic about the UK’s catalysts and the same might have lured the buyers. Also increasing the pair’s strength is The Telegraph’s news that Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson pledges £200 tax cut for millions within weeks of Tories being elected. Read more...  

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann gives her views on the BoJ’s monetary policy. Key Quotes “The BoJ kept its monetary policy stance and policy rate u

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann gives her views on the BoJ’s monetary policy. Key Quotes “The BoJ kept its monetary policy stance and policy rate unchanged at the October monetary policy meeting, but it ‘dovishly’ enhanced its forward guidance to suggest possible rate cuts in future policy meetings. We expect the BoJ to stay on pause in December but renew easing monetary policy via deepening its negative policy call rate to -0.20% possibly in 1Q20.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a bundle of its main competitors, remains entrenched into the negative territory so far this week

DXY stays offered in the 97.50/45 band on Thursday.US Initial Claims in 7-month lows at 203K WoW.US Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders next on the calendar.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a bundle of its main competitors, remains entrenched into the negative territory so far this week. US Dollar Index looks to further data The index is now intensifying the downside following the positive opening bell in Wall St. and is falling to fresh lows near 97.40. It is worth mentioning that the greenback met extra downside pressure following the breakdown of the critical 200-day SMA around 97.60 earlier in the week. In the meantime, the change of heart in the dollar following the rejection from last week’s tops in the mid-98.00s remains well sustained by poor results in the some relevant US fundamentals as of late along with inconclusive headlines from the US-China trade front. In the US data universe, weekly Initial Claims rose 203K WoW, the lowest level in the last seven months. In the same line, the trade deficit shrunk to $47.2 billion during October, also bettering estimates. Earlier, Challenger Job Cuts dropped to 44.569K during November. Later in the session, October’s Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders are closing Thursday’s docket. What to look for around USD The dollar remains under moderate pressure, exacerbated after the recent loss of the 200-day SMA near 97.60. In the meantime, the focus of attention remains on US-China headlines and the US docket, which kept disappointing investors as of late. The constructive view on the dollar is now compromised as the apparent slowdown in the US economy seems to be gathering traction despite the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Fed vs. the broad-based dovish view from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and its status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.18% at 97.43 and faces the next support at 97.41 (monthly low Dec.5) seconded by 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1) and then 97.03 (monthly low Aug.9). On the flip side, a break above 98.13 (100-day SMA) would aim for 98.54 (monthly high Nov.29) and finally 99.25 (high Oct.8).

After November’s consolidation, the market eventually broke to the upside climbing to levels not seen since early May of this year.

The cable remains strongly bullish while trading at seven-month highs.The level to beat for bulls is the 1.3150 resistance.      GBP/USD daily chart   After November’s consolidation, the market eventually broke to the upside climbing to levels not seen since early May of this year.   GBP/USD four-hour chart   The market is rising sharply to the upside while above its main simple moving averages (SMAs). As the buyers remain in full in control, the spot will likely attempt to break the 1.3150 resistance. The next levels on the way up are seen at the 1.3211 and 1.3243 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   GBP/USD 30-minute chart   GBP/USD is evolving above the main SMAs. Support is seen at the 1.3122, 1.3074 and 1.3026 price levels.        Additional key levels  

Following the previous session's intraday pullback from the vicinity of 100-day SMA, or one-month tops, gold was seen oscillating in a narrow trading

Gold remains confined in a range for the second straight session.The near-term set-up seems tilted in favour of bearish traders.Following the previous session's intraday pullback from the vicinity of 100-day SMA, or one-month tops, gold was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the early North-American session on Thursday. Looking at the broader picture, the commodity's recent pullback from multi-year tops has been along a descending trend-channel formation held over the past two months or so and points to an established bearish trend. This coupled with the fact that the metal has struggled to capitalize on the latest recovery move and remained capped below a technically significant moving average further reinforces the near-term bearish bias. However, mixed technical indicators on hourly/daily charts haven't been supportive of any firm direction and thus, warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $1465-64 horizontal level before positioning for any subsequent slide back towards challenging the $1452-50 strong near-term support zone. On the flip side, a sustained move beyond the 100-day SMA barrier, currently near the $1486-87 region, might negate the near-term bearish outlook and lift the commodity back towards the key $1500 psychological mark. The momentum could further get extended towards testing a resistance marked by the top end of the mentioned descending trend-channel, around the $1506 region.  Gold daily chart  

FX Strategists at UOB Group keep the constructive view on USD/CNH in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for USD to ‘trade sidew

FX Strategists at UOB Group keep the constructive view on USD/CNH in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for USD to ‘trade sideways to slightly higher’ was incorrect as it dropped to a low of 7.0480. Short-term upward pressure has dissipated, and the current movement is viewed as the early parts of a consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways, likely between 7.0450 and 7.0670.” Next 1-3 weeks: “After trading mostly sideways for the past several weeks, USD staged a sudden and outsized rally of +0.32% (7.0652). While the ease by which strong resistance levels were taken out has shifted the risk to the upside, we are not convinced USD can maintain the pace of the current rally. From here, we see chance for USD to test the 7.1000 resistance but the prospect for a sustained rise above the major 7.1200 level is not high. Overall, USD is expected to trade on firm footing unless it drops below the ‘strong support’ level of 7.0400”.

EUR/USD has quickly left behind Wednesday’s pullback and it is now flirting once again with the key barrier in the 1.1100 neighbourhood. EUR/USD firm

EUR/USD climbs further and re-visits the 1.1100 handle.DXY fades the earlier optimism and is back near 97.50.US Claims, trade surprised to the upside.EUR/USD has quickly left behind Wednesday’s pullback and it is now flirting once again with the key barrier in the 1.1100 neighbourhood. EUR/USD firm in 4-week highs After two consecutive weeks with losses, the pair is now trading firm into the positive ground, always propped up by the persistent and renewed selling bias around the greenback. Poor prints in the US docket as of late have resurrected doubts regarding the ‘good shape’ of the US economy, while news on the US-China trade front have been also weighing on yields and morphed into extra weakness for the buck. Data wise in Euroland, Retail Sales disappointed expectations in October, while final Q3 GDP prints matched consensus. In the US economy, weekly Claims rose by 203K, dropping to a 7-month low, while the trade deficit shrunk to $47.2 billion in October (from $51.1 billion).  Later in the session US Factory Orders and Durable Goods Orders for the month of October will close the daily calendar. What to look for around EUR The pair has finally broken above the key barrier at 1.1100 the figure amidst the continuous bearish note in the greenback and the comeback of US-China trade tensions, although it could not sustain the break and returned to the comfort zone around 1.1080/90. On the more macro view, the slowdown in the region appears far from abated despite some positive results from key fundamentals in Germany and the euro bloc as of late. This does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the cautious/bearish view on the European currency in the medium term. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.16% at 1.1095 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1116 (monthly high Dec.4) seconded by 1.1158 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1067 (100-day SMA) would target 1.1042 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14).

On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). However, this week, the market has risen above the 50 and

EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 1.1060 price level.The level to beat for buyers is the 1.1103 resistance.   EUR/USD daily chart   On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). However, this week, the market has risen above the 50 and 100 DMAs.     EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD is grinding up while nearing the 1.1103 resistance. Although the market is slow and seems reluctant to move higher, the bulls remain for the moment in control. A break of 1.1103 is necessary for the market to continue its upward trajectory towards 1.1138 and 1.1161/78 resistance zone, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.          EUR/USD 30-minute chart   The euro continues to lean to the upside while trading above its main SMAs. Support can be seen at the 1.1063, 1.1040 and 1.1011 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is expected to grind lower towards the 108.00 neighbourhood in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour vi

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is expected to grind lower towards the 108.00 neighbourhood in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected ‘further USD weakness’ yesterday but were of the view ‘oversold conditions could limit weakness to 108.30’. However, USD rebounded strongly after touching a low of 108.41. Downward momentum has dissipated and indicators are unwinding from oversold conditions. For today, USD is likely to consolidate and trade sideways, expected to be within a 108.50/109.10.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We detected the weakened underlying tone yesterday (03 Dec, spot at 109.00) and expected USD ‘to test the bottom sideway-trading range’ at 108.50 first. While the view was not wrong, the rapid pace of the subsequent decline came as a surprise as USD plummeted and moved a few pips below 108.50 during NY hours (low of 108.47). The price action has resulted in a rapid improvement in momentum and from here, USD is expected to trade with downward bias towards 108.05. On the upside, only a break of the 109.20 ‘strong resistance’ would indicate that our view is wrong.”

Analysts at National Bank Financial point out that the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday. Key Quotes ‘While the cent

Analysts at National Bank Financial point out that the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75% yesterday. Key Quotes ‘While the central bank says ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainty “remain the biggest source of risk to the outlook”, it was encouraged by “nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilizing”.’ “Statement from the Bank of Canada was arguably more upbeat than the message put out last October. Upward revisions to Canadian GDP were not directly mentioned by the central bank, although emphasis on “resilience” of the economy suggests the BoC is now more comfortable about the Canadian outlook. As such, unlike in October, the option of rate cuts were probably not on the table at this meeting.” “In addition to being forced to raise its 2019 GDP growth forecast for Canada (because of the better-than-expected handoff from 2018Q4), the central bank may also have to upgrade the 2020 outlook as it incorporates fiscal policy in January’s Monetary Policy Report. Of course, that assumes the global economic outlook does not deteriorate from here e.g. trade tensions intensify. All told, we remain comfortable with our forecast of a steady overnight rate over the near to medium term.”

The USD/CAD pair extended this week's rejection slide from a resistance marked by six-month-old descending trend-line. The pair remained under some he

USD/CAD remains heavily offered for the third consecutive session on Thursday.The set-up favours bearish traders, albeit oversold conditions warrant some caution.The USD/CAD pair extended this week's rejection slide from a resistance marked by six-month-old descending trend-line. The pair remained under some heavy selling pressure for the third consecutive session on Thursday and dropped to one-month lows, around the 1.3165 region in the last hour. Given the pair inability so sustain above the very important 200-day SMA and repeated failures near the trend-line resistance, the technical set-up favoured bearish traders. The BoC's surprisingly positive tone in the rate statement turned out to be a key trigger for bearish traders. Sustained weakness below the 1.3200 round-figure mark further fueled the pair's ongoing downward trajectory. Adding to this, a subsequent break through 50% Fibonacci level of the 1.3042-1.3329 recent positive move now seems to have paved the way for an extension of the depreciating move. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have been drifting lower in the negative territory and reinforce the near-term bearish outlook. However, oscillators on hourly charts are already flashing highly oversold conditions and warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a possible bounce. However, any attempted recovery back towards the 50% Fibo. level, around the 1.3180-85 region, might still be seen as a selling opportunity for an eventual test of early-November swing lows support near the 1.3115 region. USD/CAD daily chart  

Analysts at TD Securities note that the RBI surprised the market and kept rates on hold, contrary to market expectations for a 25bps cut. Key Quotes “

Analysts at TD Securities note that the RBI surprised the market and kept rates on hold, contrary to market expectations for a 25bps cut. Key Quotes “Even more surprising, the decision to hold was unanimous, which illustrated how wrong-footed the market was. We think that the RBI must have been concerned more than most expected by the recent spike in inflation. This, in turn, was caused by a rapid increase in food prices in October, which is likely to extend into November, as well. Nonetheless, the statement points to further cuts down the road, suggesting today's decision is merely a pause.” “Alongside the decision, the RBI also raised their 2020 inflation forecast reflecting the likelihood that food will continue to exert upward pressure on CPI in the near term as well as rising household inflation expectations.”

Canada Exports above forecasts ($49.3B) in October: Actual ($49.91B)

Canada International Merchandise Trade above expectations ($-1.37B) in October: Actual ($-1.08B)

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.693M above expectations (1.65M) in November 22

United States Trade Balance came in at $-47.2B, above forecasts ($-48.7B) in October

Canada Imports came in at $50.99B, above expectations ($50.35B) in October

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 203K, below expectations (215K) in November 29

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average above expectations (217.544K) in November 29: Actual (217.75K)

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Timothy Lane was out with some comments in the last hour saying that notable economic strengths and on-target

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Timothy Lane was out with some comments in the last hour saying that notable economic strengths and on-target inflation mean the domestic economy is resilient, but not immune. Additional quotes:    •  Global economic uncertainty is likely to persist even if the US and China reach a trade deal.
   •  Global uncertainty is likely to have a lasting effect.
   •  Damaging effects of trade conflict are only partially offset by easier monetary policy.
   •  The tone of developments in recent weeks gave the bank more confidence in its October outlook for growth and inflation.
   •  Canadian employment wage growth data suggest the labor market is continuing to tighten.
   •  There is no reason for the BoV to move in step with the US Fed when it comes to interest rate moves.
   •  In hindsight moves in Canada and the US toward balance budgets starting in 2010 were premature.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ fell from previous $542.7B to $542.2B

The USD/CHF pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session on Thursday. The pair

USD/CHF failed to build on the overnight recovery move amid weaker USD.Persistent trade uncertainty also played its part in capping any strong gains.The USD/CHF pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session on Thursday. The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's goodish intraday recovery from one-month lows and remained capped below the 0.9900 handle amid conflicting signals from the US President Donald Trump. Traders preferred to stay on the sidelines Following the previous day's comments that a trade deal with China may not come until after the 2020 US presidential election, Trump on Wednesday sounded positive and said that talks with China were going very well. Trump's remarks came after a Bloomberg report indicated that the US and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang. The developments helped revive hopes that China and the United States may soon seal a preliminary deal to end their 17-month-old trade war and eventually dented demand for perceived safe-haven assets, including the Swiss franc. However, the fact that the Chinese commerce ministry reiterated its stance that some US tariffs must be rolled back for a phase one deal kept a lid on the latest optimism and held back investors from placing any aggressive bullish bets. Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to be weighed down by Wednesday's weaker US macro data – ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – and further collaborated towards capping the major. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying, possibly beyond the mentioned handle, before traders again start positioning for any further recovery ahead of some second-tier US economic releases. Technical levels to watch  

United States Challenger Job Cuts: 44.569K (November) vs previous 50.275K

The improved sentiment around the sterling has forced EUR/GBP to recede to the 0.8430 earlier in the session, printing at the same time fresh 2019 low

EUR/GBP keeps the area of 2019 lows near 0.8440/30.GBP-buying stays well and sound ahead of UK elections.Tories expected to win with majority next month.The improved sentiment around the sterling has forced EUR/GBP to recede to the 0.8430 earlier in the session, printing at the same time fresh 2019 lows. EUR/GBP depressed around 0.8430, eyes on elections The bearish note in the European cross is extending for the third consecutive session so far on Thursday. Furthermore, the cross closed with gains in only three out of the last seventeen weeks and is currently transiting the fifth consecutive month in red figures. In the meantime, the sentiment surrounding the British pound has been doing nothing but improving on the back of results from election polls pointing to a Conservative majority at the elections on December 12th. So far, Tories keep leading the vote intention by around 12 pts vs. Labour. Lib-Dems, in the meantime, remain around the 15%. Regarding the single currency, the upbeat mood stays well in place for yet another session, always on the back of unremitting dollar-weakness stemming from US-China trade tensions and poor US results from the domestic calendar. EUR/GBP key levels The cross is retreating 0.13% at 0.8442 and a breach of 0.8430 (2019 low Dec.5) would expose 0.8382 (monthly low May 2017) and then 0.8297 (2017 low April 18). On the upside, the next barrier aligns at 0.8548 (21-day SMA) seconded by 0.8605 (high Nov.22) and finally 0.8669 (55-day SMA).

The AUD/USD pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, aroun

Disappointing domestic data exerts some fresh pressure on the aussie.US-China trade uncertainty further collaborated to the ongoing slide.The AUD/USD pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.6830-25 region. Having failed to capitalize on the previous session's goodish intraday recovery move, the pair met with some fresh supply on Thursday following the releases of weaker Aussie monthly retail sales data and trade balance figure. RBA easing speculations, trade uncertainty weigh The latest disappointment comes on the back of Wednesday's softer Aussie GDP print, which further fueled speculations for further monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and kept exerting some pressure. Meanwhile, the intraday slide seemed rather unaffected by the prevalent risk-on mood, which tends to underpin demand for perceived riskier currencies like the aussie, and some renewed weakness surrounding the US dollar. Adding to this, conflicting signals by the US President Donald Trump further raised uncertainty and tempered hopes for a possible US-China trade deal, which did little to lend any support to the China-proxy Australian dollar. Following the previous day's comments that a trade deal with China may not come until after the 2020 US presidential election, Trump on Wednesday sounded more positive and said that talks with China were going very well. It will now be interesting to see if the pair continues to find some support near 100-day SMA or the current pullback marks the end of this week's strong positive move as the focus now shifts to Friday's US monthly jobs report (NFP). Technical levels to watch  

Mexico Consumer Confidence s.a down to 43.53 in November from previous 43.89

Mexico Consumer Confidence declined to 43.84 in November from previous 44.05

In view of Danske Bank analysts, the main market mover yesterday was a Bloomberg article quoting US trade officials as saying that the US and China wa

In view of Danske Bank analysts, the main market mover yesterday was a Bloomberg article quoting US trade officials as saying that the US and China was moving closer to a phase one deal. Key Quotes “The upbeat comments were in stark contrast to signals by US President Donald Trump, who said on Tuesday: "I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal". That Trump was likely bluffing was supported by the trade officials saying yesterday that Trump was speaking "off the cuff" and that they expected a deal to be negotiated before 15 December, when new tariffs are set to be imposed on China. The news led to a turn in risk sentiment, with stock markets and bond yields moving higher again.” “We continue to believe that a phase one deal will be struck in December, as Trump badly needs China to buy US agricultural goods soon. The US election is moving closer and US farmers, who deliver critical votes in three important swing states, have been the main victims on the US side of the trade war. Without a deal to secure China buying farm goods again, it could be very hard for Trump to win the election. China has reacted very sharply to a US bill on Xinjiang going through Congress, but there are not yet any indications that this is affecting the trade talks.”  

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canada’s merchandise trade deficit to widen to $2.0bn in October from $0.98bn (market: -$1.4bn). Key Quo

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canada’s merchandise trade deficit to widen to $2.0bn in October from $0.98bn (market: -$1.4bn). Key Quotes “It will likely be reflecting a large drop in motor vehicle exports after the US GM strike led to a parts shortage across Canadian auto plants. This will contribute to a broader pullback in export activity while a modest decline in imports will provide a partial offset.” “At 7:45 ET, we will hear from BoC Deputy Governor Tim Lane who will deliver an economic progress report following Wednesday's decision. Lane's speech will include an audience Q&A, with an official press conference scheduled to follow at 9:20 ET.”

The USD/INR cross added to the previous session's losses and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The

RBI's decision to hold rates steady exerts some fresh pressure on USD/INR.Weakness below last week's swing low will pave the way for further losses.The USD/INR cross added to the previous session's losses and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Thursday. The fact that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised market participants and left interest rates unchanged provided a goodish lift to the Indian rupee. The pair has now moved well within the striking distance of last week's swing lows, a support marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 70.50-72.37 move. This is followed by a three-week-old descending trend-line, around the 71.00 handle, which if broken might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Below the mentioned support, the pair is likely to accelerate the slide further towards testing early-November swing lows support near the 70.50 region. On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 71.40 region (50% Fibo.) and remain capped near 200-hour SMA. Sustained move beyond the latter will negate any near-term bearish bias and assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards reclaiming the 72.00 handle. USD/INR 1-hourly chart  

According to Nordea Markets analysts, the RBI left the repo rate unchanged after a series of rate cuts in a surprise move, hoping for further transmis

According to Nordea Markets analysts, the RBI left the repo rate unchanged after a series of rate cuts in a surprise move, hoping for further transmission of this year’s rate cuts to the weakening economy. Key Quotes “The repo rate was left at 5.15% today, in a unanimous decision to take a pause after five meetings of rate cuts, against expectations of a 25bps cut.”“Spreading worries about the downturn in the Indian economy, GDP growth came down to a new six-year low of 4.5% y/y in the third quarter. This is well below its potential and not enough to provide jobs for the rapidly growing population, illustrating Modi’s failure to redeem his election promises.”“Government action has fallen short to boost domestic demand and has caused India’s credit outlook to be downgraded to negative by Moody’s last month.”“Food inflation rose to a 40-month high of 6.93% in October due to unseasonal rains and disruptions in supply chains, bringing up headline inflation to surpass the medium target range of 4%.” “The RBI expects food prices to remain high, but some moderation is expected. The decision to keep the repo rate unchanged today is to a large extent based on the RBI seeking greater clarity in the inflation scenario and how it plays out. As clarity will increase in the coming months, Governor Das stated that the next monetary policy statement in February is a better place to take further measures.”“The move today surprised markets, with the rupee declining to the dollar and the benchmark bond yield rising by 8bps. Stock indexes fell following the decision today.”  

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the market is projecting the trade deficit to shrink further at the start of Q4 to USD -48.6bn in October from

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the market is projecting the trade deficit to shrink further at the start of Q4 to USD -48.6bn in October from -52.2bn in the month before. Key Quotes “Separately, consensus expects initial jobless claims to remain subdued at 215k for the week of Nov 30, essentially unchanged vs the prior week. The print would maintain claims close to record lows, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.”

ANZ analysts point out that in a surprisingly unanimous decision, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the policy repo rate on hold after five con

ANZ analysts point out that in a surprisingly unanimous decision, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the policy repo rate on hold after five consecutive rate cuts this year. Key Quotes “The decision was based on the recent rise in inflation as well as the prospects that it will stay elevated in the near term. At the same time, India’s GDP growth outlook has been further downgraded.” “The problem unfortunately is that the recent rise in inflation has been concentrated in a few food items but core inflation has been trending lower.” “On the positive side, the policy stance will continue to be accommodative implying that the RBI has not closed the window to resuming rate cuts. We therefore maintain our forecast for a 25bp cut in February 2020.”

United Kingdom 30-y Bond Auction increased to 1.289% from previous 1.254%

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction increased to 0.44% from previous 0.409%

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the strong momentum in the Kiwi Dollar remains well in place and could push NZD/USD to the 0.66 neighbourho

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the strong momentum in the Kiwi Dollar remains well in place and could push NZD/USD to the 0.66 neighbourhood, a key hurdle. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD traded between 0.6504 and 0.6542 yesterday, close to our expected range of 0.6500/0.6540. Upward momentum has picked up with the firm opening this morning and the bias from here is for NZD to move towards 0.6560. A rise above this level would not be surprising but the next resistance at 0.6580 is likely out of reach. On the downside, the low near 0.6505 is not expected to come into the picture today (minor support at 0.6520).” Next 1-3 weeks: “The price action over the past couple of days is in line with our expectation from Tuesday (03 Dec, spot at 0.6500) wherein we held the view NZD ‘could advance towards 0.6560’. NZD touched 0.6542 yesterday and opened on a firm note this morning. In other words, NZD is still strong and if it were to break above 0.6560, it would shift the focus towards the weekly declining trend line at 0.6600. The relatively long-term trend line is a formidable resistance and may not be easy to crack. The current positive outlook for NZD is deemed as intact unless the 0.6480 ‘strong support’ is breached (level was previously at 0.6460). On a shorter-term note, 0.6505 is already a strong support level.”

EUR/USD has managed to advance to the 1.1115/20 band on Wednesday, although the upside momentum stalled afterwards and forced spot to close near 1.108

EUR/USD has broken above the 1.11 handle on Wednesday.Further upside should see the 200-day SMA near 1.1160 retested soon.EUR/USD has managed to advance to the 1.1115/20 band on Wednesday, although the upside momentum stalled afterwards and forced spot to close near 1.1080. The positive view on the pair remains firm and therefore the next interim target emerges recent tops at 1.1116 ahead of the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1158. However, the inability of the pair to clear recent peaks in the very near term could prompt some consolidation ahead of a potential retracement to the 55-day SMA in the 1.1040 region, which remains a strong magnet for EUR-bears.  

In light of the recent performance, Cable could now extend the upside to the 1.3190 area in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key

In light of the recent performance, Cable could now extend the upside to the 1.3190 area in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While our view for GBP to strengthen was not wrong, the pace and the extent of the advance came as a surprise. GBP blew past several strong resistance levels with ease and hit a high of 1.3120. Strong upward momentum suggests there is scope for GBP to move above the major mid- to long-term resistance at 1.3140. That said, any further advance is likely to exhaust itself before the next resistance at 1.3190. On the downside, 1.3055 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pull-back (minor support is at 1.3075).” Next 1-3 weeks: “While our view for ‘GBP to advance’ from yesterday (04 Dec, spot at 1.2995) was correct, our expectation that ‘1.3070 may not come into the picture so soon’ was wrong. The sudden and rapid acceleration in momentum led to GBP surging to an overnight high of 1.3120. From here, all eyes are at the long-term resistance of 1.3140 (declining trend line on the weekly chart). In view of the vastly improved momentum, a break of this level would not be surprising and would shift the focus to the next resistance at 1.3190 (above this level there is hardly any resistance level of note until 1.3380). On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved markedly higher to 1.2995 from yesterday’s level of 1.2925. On a shorter-term note, 1.3055 is already a strong level.”

The index remains under heavy downside pressure so far this week. The recent breakdown of the key 200-day SMA in the 97.60/65 band has opened the door

DXY broke below the 200-day SMA and accelerated the downside.The 97.00 area now emerges on the horizon.The index remains under heavy downside pressure so far this week. The recent breakdown of the key 200-day SMA in the 97.60/65 band has opened the door for a deeper retracement to, initially, October and November peaks in the low-97.00s ahead of 97.03 (August low). Occasional bullish attempts should meet minor hurdle at the 98.13/18 band, where coincide the 100-day and 55-day SMAs.  

Spain 5-y Bond Auction rose from previous -0.106% to -0.085%

France 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous -0.03% to -0.08%

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could attempt a move higher to the 1.1125 level. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday ‘t

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could attempt a move higher to the 1.1125 level. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday ‘the underlying tone still appears to be firm and we continue to see chance for EUR to edge above last month’s 1.1096 peak’. We added, ‘the next resistance at 1.1125 is likely out of reach’. EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1115 during late London hours but the advance was short-lived as it dropped back quickly to end the day little changed at 1.1076 (-0.05%). Upward pressure has eased and the current movement is viewed as the early parts of a consolidation phase. For today, EUR is expected to trade sideways to slightly lower, likely between 1.1055 and 1.1100.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to add to the update from yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 1.1080). As highlighted, while it is too early to expect a sustained advance, EUR could test the strong 1.1125 resistance. However, the rapid retreat from the NY hour peak of 1.1115 has weakened the underlying tone somewhat. That said, only a break of 1.1035 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1020 yesterday) would indicate the current upward pressure has eased. Until there is a break of the ‘strong support’ level, another ‘stab’ at 1.1125 is not ruled out just yet.”

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6%, below expectations (-0.3%) in October

Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.6% in 3Q

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in 3Q

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) meets expectations (0.2%) in 3Q

European Monetary Union Employment Change (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.1%) in 3Q

EUR/JPY is prolonging the rebound for the second session in a row and is approaching the key barrier at 121.00 the figure. Further upside pressure sho

EUR/JPY resumes the upside and eyes the mid-121.00s.This area of resistance is reinforced by the 200-day SMA.EUR/JPY is prolonging the rebound for the second session in a row and is approaching the key barrier at 121.00 the figure. Further upside pressure should lift the cross to the key hurdle in the 121.50 region, where sit October and November tops and the critical 200-day SMA. On the other hand, if the selling bias returns to the markets, then the focus of attention should shift to the 119.70, where coincide the 55-day SMA and November 25th low.  

European Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (2.2%) in October: Actual (1.4%)

European Monetary Union Employment Change (YoY) below expectations (1%) in 3Q: Actual (0.9%)

The USD/JPY pair added to the overnight goodish intraday recovery gains from two-week lows and edged higher through the early European session on Thur

USD/JPY gains some follow-through traction amid renewed trade optimism.The downside is likely to remain limited near 108.60-50 confluence support.The USD/JPY pair added to the overnight goodish intraday recovery gains from two-week lows and edged higher through the early European session on Thursday. The prevalent risk-on mood, supported by renewed US-China trade optimism, continued weighing on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and remained supportive. Bulls are now looking to extend the momentum beyond the very important 200-day SMA, and the 109.00 handle before positioning for any further appreciating move. Meanwhile, bullish technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart support prospects for additional gains, albeit mixed oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts warrant some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying beyond the mentioned handle to confirm a move back towards the 109.70-75 region, recent swing high. On the flip side, immediate support is pegged near the 108.60-50 confluence region, comprising of 50-day SMA and a one-month-old ascending trend-line. Failure to defend the said support might negate any near-term bullish outlook and prompt some aggressive selling, dragging the pair further towards sub-108.00 levels. USD/JPY daily chart  

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) sees a minor correction from five-day highs of 58.66 reached on Wednesday. However, the bulls manage to retain the 58 handl

Oil buoyed by trade hopes and falling US stockpiles. Hopes of deeper OPEC+ output cuts keep the bulls alive. All eyes on the OPEC+ meeting outcome and trade headlines. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) sees a minor correction from five-day highs of 58.66 reached on Wednesday. However, the bulls manage to retain the 58 handle ahead of the key OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting to discuss the supply cut policy. Upbeat risk tone combined with increased expectations of deeper oil output cuts by the OPEC+ continue to keep the bullish momentum intact in the black gold. Nigerian Oil Minister said that he expects oil prices around $ 60 while the Iran OPEC Envoy said that Iran backs OPEC majority decision to cut oil production. Further, Reuters quoted two sources last hour, as saying that OPEC+ were said to discuss deeper oil cuts of more than 400k bpd as the main scenario. Meanwhile, the broader market sentiment remains buoyed by ongoing US-China trade optimism following Wednesday’s Bloomberg report, citing that the US and China are moving closer to a trade deal despite the escalating tensions over the Hong Kong and Xinjiang bills. Improved risk tone keeps the demand for the higher-yielding oil afloat. The downside in prices also appears capped amid bullish US weekly supply reports. The American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed late Tuesday that the US crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that the US crude stockpiles decreased by 4.9 million barrels last week. Looking ahead, the next direction in the barrel of WTI will be determined by the outcome of OPEC+ on the supply cut policy. The two-day OPEC+ Vienna meeting begins on Thursday. WTI Levels to watch   

Finally, the much-awaited and already known headlines are out on the wires, via Reuters, as the Japanese government officially announces its JPY 26 tr

Finally, the much-awaited and already known headlines are out on the wires, via Reuters, as the Japanese government officially announces its JPY 26 trillion economic stimulus package. Key Details: Package includes ¥13.2 trillion of fiscal measures. Package includes actual spending of ¥9.4 trillion. Package includes central government spending of ¥7.6 trillion. Extra budget to cover ¥4.3 trillion worth of stimulus measures. USD/JPY is little changed around 108.90 on the above announcement. Japan’s Abe: Economic stimulus package is comprehensive and preemptive

South Africa Business Confidence Index: 92.7 (November) vs 91.7

The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and jumped to fresh multi-month tops, around the 1.3145-50 region in the l

GBP/USD gains traction for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday.Increasing odds of a majority for Conservatives remained supportive.Overbought conditions on short-term charts warrant some caution.The GBP/USD pair finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and jumped to fresh multi-month tops, around the 1.3145-50 region in the last hour. The British pound remains one of the top-performing currencies and was being supported by the fact that the incoming UK election polls have been indicating a majority for the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party. UK political optimism, weaker USD supportive On the other hand, the US dollar bulls seemed rather unimpressed by renewed trade optimism, wherein a Bloomberg report on Wednesday indicated that the US and China are moving closer to a deal before the December 15 tariffs deadline. Wednesday's weaker releases, showing that private-sector employment increased by 67K in November as against 140K expected and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 from 54.7 previous, continued weighing on the greenback. The mentioned supporting factors, coupled with some follow-through technical buying helped the pair to build on its recent strong bullish momentum and continue scaling higher for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday. However, overbought conditions on hourly/daily charts warrant some caution before placing any fresh bullish bets and cap any further gains amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the UK. Later during the early North-American session, some second-tier US economic data – trade balance figures and the usual initial weekly jobless claims – might influence the USD and produce some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Speaking about the economic stimulus package likely to be announced by the Japanese government, PM Shinzo Abe said that economic stimulus package is c

Speaking about the economic stimulus package likely to be announced by the Japanese government, PM Shinzo Abe said that economic stimulus package is comprehensive and preemptive.

The USD/CAD pair added to the previous session's post-BoC losses and dropped to near one-month lows, around the 1.3180-75 region in the last hour. The

BoC’s optimistic view of the domestic economy continues to underpin the CAD.A modest pullback in oil prices seemed largely offset by a subdued USD demand.The market attention now shifts to OPEC+ meeting and second-tier economic data.The USD/CAD pair added to the previous session's post-BoC losses and dropped to near one-month lows, around the 1.3180-75 region in the last hour. The pair extended this week's rejection slide from a resistance marked by a six-month-old descending trend-line and witnessed some follow-through selling for the third consecutive session on Thursday. The Canadian dollar remained well supported by Wednesday's BoC policy statement, which reflected the central bank's optimistic view on the domestic economy and dampened prospects for immediate easing. This coupled with a goodish intraday rally in crude oil prices, supported by a larger than expected drop in the US inventories, provided an additional boost to the commodity-linked currency – loonie. The pair tumbled over 100 pips and continued losing some ground through the early European session on Thursday, rather unaffected by a modest pullback in oil prices ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting. The prevalent US dollar selling bias – weighed down by a duo of disappointing US macro releases on Wednesday – was seen as one of the key factors prompting some follow-through selling on Thursday. Even the latest trade optimism, led by a Bloomberg report that the US and China are moving closer to a deal before the 15 December tariffs deadline, also did little to provide any meaningful boost to the greenback. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the economic docket, featuring some second-tier releases from Canada and the US, for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session. Technical levels to watch  

Ahead of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting scheduled later today, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak tells Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdu

 Ahead of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting scheduled later today, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak tells Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that they are sure they will have to continue their cooperation. This comment comes after Reuters reported some sources, as citing that said to discuss deeper oil cuts of more than 400k bpd as the central agenda. OPEC+ said to discuss deeper oil cuts – Reuters Meanwhile, WTI keeps its range trade intact near multi-day highs of 58.66, as the bulls await the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting for the next trading impetus.

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, sees the BoE keeping the monetary conditions unchanged at its meeting later this month. Key Quotes “Despite the d

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, sees the BoE keeping the monetary conditions unchanged at its meeting later this month. Key Quotes “Despite the dovish tilt at its November meeting, we expect the BoE to be in a wait-and-see stance. We believe that with two dissenters against a large majority is still somewhat premature in tipping the balance for a rate cut, especially with a no-deal Brexit scenario off the immediate agenda. We would prefer to wait for the outcome of the impending election and its subsequent impact on how Brexit may proceed before making changes to our forecasts”.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that EUR/GBP cross has sold off yesterday, and has now eroded the .8465 2019 low. Key Quotes “We have

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that EUR/GBP cross has sold off yesterday, and has now eroded the .8465 2019 low. Key Quotes “We have TD support at .8440 AND the daily RSI has yet to confirm the new low. However the market continues to look offered and for now we will assume scope to .8314/04 the April 2017 low.” “Rallies will find initial resistance at the .8563 accelerated downtrend and the .8606 22nd November high. This guards the .8738 4 month downtrend.”  

The single currency is trading marginally into the positive territory in the second half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1090 region in the wake

EUR/USD recedes from recent tops beyond 1.1100.DXY remains depressed near 97.50 on data, trade.German Factory Orders contracted 0.4% MoM in October.The single currency is trading marginally into the positive territory in the second half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1090 region in the wake of the opening bell in Euroland. EUR/USD retreats from 4-week highs The pair has given away part of the recent gains after failing to extend the rally beyond the 1.1115/20 band on Wednesday. As usual, the persistent weakness surrounding the greenback in response to the better tone in the US-China trade front, declining US yields and poor prints from the US calendar has been behind the ongoing rally in spot. In the euro-docket, German Factory Orders contracted at a monthly 0.4% during October, coming in short of expectations at the same time and reversing the September’s 1.5% expansion. Later in the day, the Eurogroup Meetings should kick in seconded by the final readings of the Q3 GDP in the broader euro area along with October’s Retail Sales. Across the pond, the weekly Initial Claims are due followed by Challenger Job Cuts, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders and Trade Balance. What to look for around EUR The pair has finally broken above the key barrier at 1.1100 the figure amidst the continuous bearish note in the greenback and the comeback of US-China trade tensions, although it could not sustain the break and returned to the comfort zone around 1.1080/90. On the more macro view, the slowdown in the region appears far from abated despite some positive results from key fundamentals in Germany and the euro bloc as of late. This does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the cautious/bearish view on the European currency in the medium term. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.09% at 1.1087 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1116 (monthly high Dec.4) seconded by 1.1158 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1067 (100-day SMA) would target 1.1042 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14).

Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, points out that the Bank of Canada struck a more neutral tone yesterday and the key overn

Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, points out that the Bank of Canada struck a more neutral tone yesterday and the key overnight rate was left unchanged at 1.75%. Key Quotes “The BoC remains concerned about the global backdrop and potential risks for the domestic economy. But today's statement referenced "nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilizing." On the domestic front, the central bank shares our own view that underlying details of the as-expected slowing in Q3 GDP were decidedly more positive than the headline alone and called out the stronger than expected rise in business investment.” “Labour markets have been very strong, inflation has been locked right around the 2% target, and wage growth has strengthened into the end of the year. While growth headwinds remain, the bank is balancing these risks against those associated with re-inflating household credit growth (largely via recovery in housing markets) from levels that the BoC has argued are already worryingly high.” “The global growth backdrop remains highly uncertain. Trade tensions between the US and China have eased somewhat but new US threats of tariffs on France and reinstatement of steel/aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina over the last week has been yet another reminder that tensions, and threats to the global growth outlook, can come and go quickly and with little warning.” “And limited slack in the economy means that there is simply more scope for downside than upside growth surprises going forward. Still, today's rate statement, and recent economic data flow, has at the very least made a near-term rate cut, like the one in Q1 2020 in our current base-case, look less likely.”

According to the latest headlines floating on the wires, citing two sources familiar with the matter, OPEC and its allies were said to discuss deeper

According to the latest headlines floating on the wires, citing two sources familiar with the matter, OPEC and its allies were said to discuss deeper oil cuts of more than 400k bpd as the main scenario. The news did assist WTI crude oil to reverse an early dip, albeit bulls lacked any strong conviction and remained on the sidelines ahead of the highly-anticipated OPEC meeting this Thursday.

Gold struggled to capitalize on the attempted intraday positive move and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, around the $1475 r

A subdued USD demand initially extended some support to gold.Renewed US-China trade optimism capped any strong move up.The downside seems limited amid mixed trade-related headlines.Gold struggled to capitalize on the attempted intraday positive move and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range, around the $1475 region. Following the previous session's rejection slide from the vicinity of the 100-day SMA support-turned-resistance, a subdued US dollar demand extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity during the Asian session on Thursday. Focus remains on trade developments The greenback remained on the defensive in the wake of Wednesday's disappointing macro releases, showing that private-sector employers added 67K jobs in November and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell more-than-expected to 53.9. The uptick, however, lacked any strong bullish conviction amid renewed trade optimism, led by a Bloomberg report on Wednesday indicating that the US and China are moving closer to a deal before the 15 December tariffs deadline. This was followed by upbeat trade-related comments from the US President Donald Trump, saying that talks with China were going very well. This eventually boosted the global risk sentiment and dented the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status. Meanwhile, the fact that Trump on Tuesday said that a trade deal with China may not come until after the 2020 US presidential election might keep a lid on the latest optimism and help limit any sharp pullback, at least for the time being. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent recovery move might have already run out of the steam and positioning for the resumption of the near-term depreciating move. Technical levels to watch  

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY has sold off to the 55 day ma at 108.44, which has so far held and with no resistance of not

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY has sold off to the 55 day ma at 108.44, which has so far held and with no resistance of note has been overcome and attention remains on the November low at 107.89. Key Quotes “Given the very dense overhead resistance, namely the 200 week moving average at 109.83 and the 2015-2019 downtrend at 110.59, we will assume that the market has topped for now.” “Failure at 107.89 will trigger losses to the 106.48 October low. Failure at 106.48 will target 106.00, then 105.32/78.6% retracement which is the last defence for the 104.46 August low.”

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that German new industrial orders dropped by 0.4% month-on-month in October, from 1.5% in September. Ke

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that German new industrial orders dropped by 0.4% month-on-month in October, from 1.5% in September. Key Quotes “On the year, new orders were down by 5.5%. Domestic orders dropped by a whopping 3.2%, while foreign orders increased by 1.5%, driven by a sharp bulk-order-driven 11% increase in orders from Eurozone countries.” “The great order book deflation in German industry continues. In fact, it looks as if 2019 wil be the second year in a row in which new orders have fallen. In 2018, orders dropped by 0.4% on average. Currently, 2019 is on track to record a monthly average drop of some 0.6%.” “All of this means that the discrepancy between thin order books and high inventories is now bigger than at the start of the mini-recession in 2012 and does not bode well for industrial production in coming months.”

Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) below expectations (-0.5%) in October: Actual (-1.3%)

The AUD/USD pair edged lower during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit remained well within the previous session's broader trading range. A Bloombe

Renewed US-China trade optimism provided a minor lift to the aussie on Wednesday.AUD/USD bulls failed to capitalize amid weaker than expected domestic macro data.The AUD/USD pair edged lower during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit remained well within the previous session's broader trading range. A Bloomberg report indicated that the US and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Renewed trade optimism provided a modest intraday lift to the China-proxy Australian dollar and prompted some intraday short-covering move around the major. The downside seems limited, at least for now The pair managed to reverse an early dip to 100-day SMA support, led by softer Aussie GDP growth figures and finally ended near the top end of its daily trading range. The uptick, however, lacked any strong follow-through and fizzled out rather quickly in reaction to the weaker-than-expected Aussie macro releases – monthly retail sales and trade balance figures. According to the data released this Thursday, retail sales missed consensus estimates and remained flat month-over-month in October. Adding to this, Australia's trade surplus also narrowed to A$ 4,502 million in October as compared to a drop to A$ 6,100 million expected and A$ 7,180 million recorded in the previous month, primarily on the back of a 5% drop in exports. Meanwhile, the downside remained limited, at least for the time being, and was being cushioned by a subdued US dollar price action. As investors digested the latest trade-related headlines, a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, coupled with Wednesday's disappointing US macro data kept the USD bulls on the defensive and extended some support to the major. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to attract any meaningful traction or the range-bound trading action over the past two trading sessions mark the end of this week's goodish positive move. Moving ahead, Thursday's second-tier US economic releases – initial weekly jobless claims and trade balance data – will now be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, notes that New Zealand’s total construction activity rose by 0.4% in the June quarter, below Westpac’s a

Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, notes that New Zealand’s total construction activity rose by 0.4% in the June quarter, below Westpac’s and market forecasts. Key Quotes “Underlying the soft headline result was a fall in residential construction centred on Auckland. That’s likely to be a temporary pause with forward indicators still firm. Non-residential construction rebounded as expected.” “Total construction activity rose by 0.4% in the September quarter. That was lower than our forecast for a 2.5% rise or the average analyst forecast for a 1% increase.” “The main reason for the soft September quarter result was a 1.1% decline in residential building activity. That decline was centred on Auckland (where nominal spending on construction was down 3.6%) and Canterbury (down 2.5%). Spending in other parts of the country actually rose by 3.6%.” “The trend in residential building activity has flattened off in recent years. However, we expect to see continued increases over 2020.” “In contrast, non-residential construction rebounded as expected in September, rising by 2.4%. That was underpinned by strong activity in Auckland, with gains also seen in other areas.” “Looking ahead, we expect to see continued strength in construction activity over 2020 and 2021.”

If this sanction is really imposed on #Huawei, from the perspective of #USChina relations and the global financial chain, it would mean a substantial

If this sanction is really imposed on #Huawei, from the perspective of #USChina relations and the global financial chain, it would mean a substantial decoupling between the world’s two largest economies, per Global Times.   More to come. ..

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assessed the recently published trade data for the Malaysian economy. Key Quotes “

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assessed the recently published trade data for the Malaysian economy. Key Quotes “Gross exports fell by 6.7% y/y in Oct, which was similar to the contraction in the previous month. However, the decline in Oct was smaller than ours (-14.8%) and market (-12.3%) estimates. Gross imports reverted to a decline of 8.7% y/y in Oct (Sep: +2.4% y/y), resulting in a new record high for trade surplus of MYR17.3bn in Oct (Sep: + MYR8.4bn in Sep).” “Noteworthy is a sharp month-on-month gain in Oct’s exports, +MYR12.9bn or 16.6% m/m, which could be attributed to 1) potential front-load of purchases ahead of the 15 Dec US tariffs on USD160bn worth of Chinese products, and 2) normalisation of activity after the shorter working month in Sep.” “We remain cautious on the export outlook for the remaining two months of 2019 and 2020 given ongoing uncertainties surrounding US-China trade talks. We maintain our full-year export forecast at -1.0% for 2019, before recovering to 2.0% growth in 2020. The projected recovery next year is expected to be softer relative to past cycles amid the prolonged US-China trade disputes, potential widening of trade disputes to other countries, and global tech down cycle that may drag until mid-2020”.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry releases a statement on the US-China trade issue on Thursday, citing - We are in close contact with US on trade.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry Spokesman Gao releases a statement on the US-China trade issue on Thursday, citing - We are in close contact with US on trade deal. If there is a phase 1 deal then tariffs should be rolled back accordingly. The 2 sides are maintaining close communication. No further details to release on US-China trade talks.

ANZ analysts note that annual inflation in the Philippines picked up to 1.3% y/y in November due to an increase in ‘housing and utilities’ prices and

ANZ analysts note that annual inflation in the Philippines picked up to 1.3% y/y in November due to an increase in ‘housing and utilities’ prices and the fading of supportive base effects. Key Quotes “Although the base effects will progressively become less supportive, we expect inflation to stay within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target band through 2020, thereby playing second fiddle to growth concerns over the next few policy meetings.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that GBP/USD is approaching its 5 year downtrend at 1.3156. Key Quotes “Also found in this vicinity is t

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that GBP/USD is approaching its 5 year downtrend at 1.3156. Key Quotes “Also found in this vicinity is the 50% retracement of the move down from 2018 at 1.3167 and the 1.3187 May high and this is tough resistance and we look for the market to fail here. Minor support is offered by 1.3013 October high and the 20 day ma at 1.2916 and this guards the 1.2768 8th November low.” “Failure at 1.2768 would probably see a slide to the 200 day ma at 1.2698. This guards the 1.2582 September high. Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2548 uptrend line. It guards 1.2196/94.” “Above 1.3187 lies 1.3382 the 2019 high and potentially the 61.8% retracement at 1.3450.”

Danske Bank analysts suggest that the main factor driving markets is news on the US-China trade talks , which has caused rising volatility in markets

Danske Bank analysts suggest that the main factor driving markets is news on the US-China trade talks , which has caused rising volatility in markets over the past days due to conflicting signals from the US side. Key Quotes “Today's data highlight is the final Q3 GDP estimate from the euro area, which will provide more details on the sub-components of the national account. We look out for what drove the 0.2% q/q growth rate in Q3, as signs have increasingly indicated that the strong domestic demand seen so far has started to feel the pinch as well. US initial jobless claims are also on the calendar today.” “Today at 08:40 CET, the Riksbank's Flodén is speaking on the economy and monetary policy. Per Jansson has sent a clear message (our interpretation) that he will vote for keeping rates unchanged in December. At the latest meeting, Flodén and Skingsley supported the forecast to raise rates in December. At the same time they said the data will decide. They will probably wait until after the inflation numbers next week before making up their minds, but Flodén's comments today could move the markets.”

Open interest in JPY futures markets shrunk for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by nearly 4.5K contracts according to preliminary r

Open interest in JPY futures markets shrunk for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by nearly 4.5K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume, instead, went up for the fourth consecutive session, now by almost 9.3K contracts. USD/JPY met support near 108.40USD/JPY tested and rebounded from the 55-day SMA in the 108.40 region on Wednesday in response to alternating developments from the US-China trade front and all amidst declining open interest and rising volume in the Japanese yen. That said, the consolidate trade still remains in place, although further gains in spot are not ruled out.

The USD/JPY pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 109.00 handle through the Asian session on

Renewed trade optimism helped USD/JPY to rebound from two-week lows.Trump’s mixed signals, subdued USD demand kept a lid on any further gains.The USD/JPY pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses, below the 109.00 handle through the Asian session on Thursday. The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's goodish intraday recovery from two-week lows and remained capped below the very important 200-day SMA amid conflicting signals from the US President Donald Trump. Following the previous day's comments that a trade deal with China may not come until after the 2020 US presidential election, Trump on Wednesday said that talks with China were going very well and revives trade optimism. Focus remains on trade developments Trump's remarks came after a Bloomberg report indicated that the US and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Hopes that China and the United States may soon seal a preliminary deal to end their 17-month-old trade war dented the Japanese yen's safe-haven status and prompted some intraday short-covering on Wednesday. However, the fact that Chinese sources have also indicated that the US House bill on Xinjiang could jeopardise negotiations kept a lid on the latest optimism. This coupled with a subdued US dollar demand, weighed down by Wednesday's weaker US economic data and a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, further collaborated towards capping any strong follow-through positive move for the major. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the mentioned barrier, around the 109.00 handle, before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to some second-tier US economic releases – the usual initial weekly jobless claims and trade balance data – for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session. Technical levels to watch  

The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase

German Factory Orders drop 0.4% MoM in October.German Factory Orders fall 5.5% YoY in October.More to come ... About German Factory Orders The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) came in at -5.5%, above expectations (-6.1%) in October

Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (0.3%) in October

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted investors added around 8.5K contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, printing

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted investors added around 8.5K contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, printing the second build in a row. Volume, too, increased for another session, now by almost 67K contracts. GBP/USD could move to 1.3176Cable continues its march north unabated so far this week in tandem with increasing open interest and volume, while positive headlines on the upcoming UK elections have been also supportive of the better tone in the sterling. That said, the pair could now attempt a move to the May’s peak at 1.3176.

FX option expiries for Dec 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1050 686m 1.1110 639m 1.1115 598m 1.

FX option expiries for Dec 5 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.- EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1050 686m 1.1110 639m 1.1115 598m 1.1120 746m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3050 302m 1.3100 274m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.40 480m 109.00 627m 109.15 770m 109.50 438m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6900 890m

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan reviewed the latest PMI prints in Singapore. Key Quotes “Singapore’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as released

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan reviewed the latest PMI prints in Singapore. Key Quotes “Singapore’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) as released by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management (SIPMM) showed further increase of 0.2 point to 49.8 in November 2019. This is the second month that PMI rose, albeit remaining below the 50.0 mark for a seventh month”. “The latest PMI data reinforces our outlook for some stabilization in Singapore’s manufacturing environment.” “Moreover, the gain in overall PMI is led by the increase in factory output, a faster rate of increase in inventories and imports, and a slower rate of decline in the employment, new exports and new orders index.” “The latest PMI data for November has observably painted a relatively positive environment for Singapore’s manufacturing and electronic space, exports and employment. As discussed above, industrial production growth in September and October 2019 has been in positive zone, suggesting that the trough in the manufacturing sector has likely been seen in 3Q19. Nonetheless, Singapore’s economic outlook is still dependent on how global trade performs into the remaining parts of 2019 and 2020, and this is also echoed by companies indicating their concern ‘about further escalation of the global trade war into the next year’ as cited by SIPMM.”

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD has tested and so far failed at the 5 month downtrend at 1.1118 which is likely to provoke s

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD has tested and so far failed at the 5 month downtrend at 1.1118 which is likely to provoke some consolidation. Key Quotes “The market recently did not close below the 1.0989 mid-November low and rallied sharply higher. Attention is on the topside and this down trend - this guards the 1.1180 October high and the 1.1249 channel resistance and eventually the 1.1359 200 week ma. This latter level remains the critical break point on the topside from a medium term perspective. Intraday dips are indicated to hold over 1.1050.” “Failure at 1.0980 targets the 1.0943 78.6% retracement. This is seen as the last defence for the 1.0879 October low and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement, and if seen, we will look for signs of reversal from here.”

India Cash Reserve Ratio meets forecasts (4%)

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets, open interest rose by around 18.6K contracts on Wednesday, reaching the largest single day build since

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets, open interest rose by around 18.6K contracts on Wednesday, reaching the largest single day build since September 10th, according to CME Group. In the same line, volume increased by nearly 134.8K contracts, also printing the largest build since mid-September. EUR/USD regained 1.1100, but…EUR/USD climbed to multi-week highs in the 1.1115/20 band on Wednesday, although the move lacked of follow-through and the pair closed with marginal losses in the 1.1080 region. Increasing open interest and volume accompanied the uptick, although price action suggests that further gains appear somewhat limited for the time being.

At its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting held on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian central bank, left its benchmark interest rate, Re

At its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting held on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Indian central bank, left its benchmark interest rate, Repo rate, unchanged 5.15%, disappointing the doves who were expecting the sixth rate cut for this year.   More to come ...

India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) came in at 5.15%, above expectations (4.9%)

India Reverse Repo Rate came in at 4.9%, above expectations (4.65%)

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 5: The market mood has improved after reports said the US and China are closer to an agreement tha

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, December 5: The market mood has improved after reports said the US and China are closer to an agreement than the rhetoric suggests. However, some investors have seen such positive headlines before. The clock is ticking down to the December 15 deadline.  US data: The ADP Non-Farm Payrolls figures badly disappointed with an increase of only 67,000 private-sector jobs. On the other hand, the services sector continues growing and creating jobs at a satisfactory pace according to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. Tension is mounting ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report. GBP/USD is holding onto gains above 1.31 after surging on Wednesday. Recent opinion polls have shown Conservatives stabilizing and maintaining their gap with Labour, after it had narrowed beforehand. Final Services PMI was upgraded to 49.3 points. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is presenting a plan for his first 100 days in office.Oil prices have stabilized after rising on Wednesday following a significant drop in inventories. WTI trades around $58 and Brent around $62. Speculation about the OPEC meeting and Saudi Aramco IPO are also in play. See OPEC Meeting Preview: Do production cuts mean higher crude prices? The Canadian Dollar has extended its rise after the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged and seemed to see the glass half full, praising a rebound in investment. The BOC is also content with the housing sector.  The Australian dollar has retreated after Australia reported flat retail sales in October while the New Zealand dollar advanced amid capital buffer rules which would allow for tighter monetary policy. Moreover, ANZ forecast only one rate cut in 2020. The Japanese yen is shrugging off the government's announcement of considerable fiscal stimulus. The changes in the market mood dominate yen trading.Cryptocurrencies are recovering after whipsawing traders on Wednesday with a surge followed by a plunge.

Matthew Hassan, analyst at Westpac, notes that Australia’s retail sales disappointed again in October, holding flat vs expectations of a 0.3% rise. Ke

Matthew Hassan, analyst at Westpac, notes that Australia’s retail sales disappointed again in October, holding flat vs expectations of a 0.3% rise. Key Quotes “The spending 'strike' of Q3 (see here) looks to have extended into Q4 with still no evidence of a meaningful boost from tax refunds or interest rate cuts – the combined value of which will be adding around $16.6bn to household disposable incomes over the year to June 2020.” “The breakdown by size continues to show small retailers bearing the brunt of the slowdown over the last year with sales in an outright contraction running at a –1.8% annual pace. Sales growth across larger retailers has been steadier, holding around 4-4.5%yr.” “Overall this is yet a disappointing retail result indicating no boost from recent policy measures. Retail conditions remain very difficult – particularly for smaller retailers, those without online channels and in segments exposed to the downturn in housing.” “ While November may have seen some improvement, with early reports suggesting 'Black Friday' sales have been well-attended, the signs are still decidedly mixed, weak vehicle sales suggesting consumers are still in 'lock down' mode with discretionary spending.”

Following the recent release of Q3 GDP figures in Australia, Economist Lee Sue Ann at UOB Group assessed the growth prospects for this year and 2020.

Following the recent release of Q3 GDP figures in Australia, Economist Lee Sue Ann at UOB Group assessed the growth prospects for this year and 2020. Key Quotes “Australia’s GDP slipped to 0.4% q/q in 3Q19, down from a revised 0.6 q/q reading in 2Q19, and below expectations of 0.5% q/q. The below-trend 1.7% y/y annual expansion came in within expectations, a tad higher from the revised 1.6% y/y reading in 2Q19. Growth continued to be dragged lower by weak household spending, with domestic final demand remaining subdued, contributing just 0.2 percentage points. Government spending was up 0.9% and was the main contributor to growth in domestic final demand, reflecting ongoing delivery of services in disability, health and aged care. Net exports contributed 0.2 percentage points to growth for the third quarter.” “The weakness in domestic demand continues to be the main story, with consumption growth remaining weak. Hiring momentum also seems to have weakened recently. All of these could negate the positive wealth effect expected from the nascent housing price recovery. In addition, private sector capital expenditures fell 0.2% in 3Q19, undershooting estimates for a flat outcome”. “Our growth forecasts of 1.8% for 2019 and 2.4% for 2020 are lower than the RBA’s, which expects growth to return to around 2.75% in 2020 to 3.00% in 2021 going forward. Although we remain less optimistic than the RBA that growth will return to trend, the RBA seems to be strongly signalling their confidence in a better economic backdrop and therefore is likely to stay pat for some time.”

Analysts at TD Securities note that the US ISM manufacturing index surprised modestly to the downside, dropping to a still firm 53.9 level in November

Analysts at TD Securities note that the US ISM manufacturing index surprised modestly to the downside, dropping to a still firm 53.9 level in November from 54.7 before (TD & market: 54.5). Key Quotes “Most of the decline reflected a significant drop in the business activity component, which fell 5pt to 51.6 —its lowest level since 2010. That said, a notable jump in new orders to 57.1 from 53.7 suggests the decline in business activity is likely to be short-lived.” “The employment component was the other notable highlight in the report, with the index advancing to a four-month high 55.5. All in, despite the drop in the headline, the index remains at still firm levels consistent with economic activity chugging along and some of the key details are encouraging for the near horizon.”

Forex today was a quiet Asian affair, as markets absorbed the latest trade deal optimism with a pinch of salt. The Asian equities traded firmer follow

Forex today was a quiet Asian affair, as markets absorbed the latest trade deal optimism with a pinch of salt. The Asian equities traded firmer following the positive Wall Street lead. However, the US equity futures and Treasury yields traded on the back foot that kept the US dollar weaker against most majors, except for the Aussie dollar. The AUD/USD pair dropped on dismal Australian Retail Sales and Trade data, having remained below the 0.6850 barrier almost throughout this session. The Kiwi, on the other hand, rallied beyond 0.6550 on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision on banks’ capital requirement and Governor Orr’s rates-on hold comment.  Although, the spot failed to hold the upside amid a retreat in oil prices. However, the Canadian dollar was stronger despite the minor correction in the black gold, driving USD/CAD back below 1.3200 amid BOC optimism. Both crude benchmarks are treading water ahead of the key 2-day OPEC+ meeting that begins later on Thursday. Meanwhile, USD/JPY failed to sustain above the 200-DMA barrier and fell back into the red near 108.75 region, as the yen was lifted by the hopes that the Japanese stimulus package will help boost economic growth. Amongst the European currencies, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidated the recent gains amid looming trade deal risks, favorable UK election polls and ahead of the key US NFP data due this Friday.   Main Topics in Asia Trump administration considers 14,000 more troops for Middle East – WSJ UK PM Johnson pledges £200 tax cut for millions within weeks of Tory victory – The Telegraph RBNZ's final decision on banks' capital requirements supports financials & Kiwi Aussie data dump: Retail Sales, (0% vs 0.3% exp) Trade Balance, (450M vs 6100M exp) Japan to compile economic stimulus worth $120 billion in fiscal spending - Abe BOJ’s Harada: Bold monetary easing clearly has helped improve economy Indian rupee to remain on slippery slope next year – Reuters poll Chinese Ambassador to US: China, US need to get the basics of their relations right Indonesian Consumer Confidence improves to 124.2 in Nov, Rupiah hits five-day highs Key Focus Ahead When are German Factory Orders and how could they affect EUR/USD? EUR/USD will likely face selling pressure if the data prints below estimates of 0.3% month-on-month growth. Note that the pair is already looking heavy, having created a candle with a long upper shadow on Wednesday.  GBP/USD confronts 200-week SMA amid upbeat polls, UK political plays GBP/USD keeps range near seven-month tops of 1.3120 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The pair remains underpinned by the optimism surrounding the United Kingdom’s (UK) political scenario. OPEC Meeting Preview: Do production cuts mean higher crude prices? OPEC's current production cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day expire in March 2020. Iraq has proposed an additional 400,000 barrels in reductions. Many US shale drillers have debt pressure from low crude prices.  

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains under pressure near the 97.50 region so far his week. US Dollar Index focused on tra

DXY remains below the key 200-day SMA.US 10-year yields navigate in the sub-1.80% area.Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Factory Orders, Trade Balance on the docket.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains under pressure near the 97.50 region so far his week. US Dollar Index focused on trade, data The index is extending the negative streak for the fifth session on Thursday, breaking below the key 200-day SMA in the 97.60/65 band albeit managing to find some contention around 97.40 for the time being. Auspicious headlines around the US-China ‘Phase One’ deal, mainly regarding to the rollover of tariffs were doing the rounds on Wednesday and somewhat halted the dell-off in the buck. However, the miserable print from November’s ADP report (67K) added extra downside pressure to the greenback, which was later reinforced after the ISM Non-Manufacturing missed expectations during last month. Data wise on Thursday, usual weekly Claims are due seconded by Challenger Job Cuts, Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders and Trade Balance. What to look for around USD The dollar remains under moderate pressure, exacerbated after the recent loss of the 200-day SMA near 97.60. In the meantime, the focus of attention remains on US-China headlines and the US docket, which kept disappointing investors as of late. The constructive view on the dollar is now compromised as the apparent slowdown in the US economy seems to be gathering traction despite the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Fed vs. the broad-based dovish view from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and its status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.06% at 97.54 and faces the next support at 97.43 (monthly low Dec.4) seconded by 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1) and then 97.03 (monthly low Aug.9). On the flip side, a break above 98.13 (100-day SMA) would aim for 98.54 (monthly high Nov.29) and finally 99.25 (high Oct.8).

USD/CHF declines to an intra-day low of 0.9874 by the press time of the pre-European session on Thursday. Even so, the pair stays above near-term key support.

USD/CHF seesaws around a three-month old rising trend-line.Bearish MACD, failure to carry the latest bounce keep sellers hopeful.Buyers will look for entry beyond 200-day EMA.USD/CHF declines to an intra-day low of 0.9874 by the press time of the pre-European session on Thursday. Even so, the pair stays above near-term key horizontal-support. While the pair’s failure to extend Wednesday’s pullback well beyond the three-month-old rising support line portrays the underlying momentum weakness, 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator flashes bearish signals and lures the sellers. However, multiple lows marked since November 01 offers immediate key support around 0.9855/50, a break of which could fetch prices to September month low near 0.9800. On the flip side, 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.9920 acts as adjacent resistance that holds the gate for pair’s further recovery towards 0.9950 and November 08 top of 0.9980. If at all the Bulls manage to rein prices beyond 0.9980, the October month high close to 1.0030 will be in focus. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

GBP/USD has surged on Tuesday amid a growing sense that the Conservatives are on course to win the elections. Where next for cable? The Technical Conf

GBP/USD has surged on Tuesday amid a growing sense that the Conservatives are on course to win the elections. Where next for cable?  The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that pound/dollar faces a hurdle at 1.3121, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 5-15m, the SMA 10-15m, the Bollinger Band 15min-Upper, and the Fibonacci 161.8% one-month.  If GBP/USD manages to pull forward, the next target is 1.3243, which is where the Pivot Point one-month Resistance 3 meets the price. Support awaits at 1.3032, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the Bollinger Band one-day Upper, the Pivot Point one-week R2, the SMA 200-15m, and the SMA 50-1h.  Further down, the next cushion is 1.2985, which is a juncture of lines including the previous monthly high, the BB 4h-Middle, the SMA 5-one-day, the PP one-week R1, and the previous daily low. This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

According to three Japanese government sources quoted by Reuters, the Japanese government will announce a 26 trillion yen ($240 billion) economic pack

According to three Japanese government sources quoted by Reuters, the Japanese government will announce a 26 trillion yen ($240 billion) economic package later on Thursday. The govt expects the stimulus package will push up the gross domestic product (GDP) by 1.4%, the sources added. They further said that “the package would include fiscal spending of 13.2 trillion yen aimed at stalling growth in the world's third-largest economy amid downward pressure overseas.” “The total package would include government loans, credit guarantees and private-sector spending,” they concluded. The pro-growth headlines are seen lifting the sentiment around the Japanese yen, knocking-off the USD/JPY pair to session lows near 108.75 region, down -0.06% so far.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Harada is back on the wires pre-Europe open, via Reuters, commenting on the central bank’s monetary policy and in

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Harada is back on the wires pre-Europe open, via Reuters, commenting on the central bank’s monetary policy and inflation outlook. Key Headlines: Its true low rates are affecting financial institutions but doesn't mean everything will be resolved if low rates are rectified. No need to consider additional policy steps as BOJ’s yield curve control helps synergy effects with govt economic package. Economy has taken a turn for better because BOJ sticks to 2% inflation target. Thought BOJ’s JGB purchases could decrease when we adopted yield curve control. 2% inflation target is global standard, helping stabilise fx market.  

Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY): 2.6% (November) vs previous 2.7%

WTI declines $58.30 while heading into the European open on Thursday. With this, the black gold repeats the pattern of pulling back from $58.70/80.

WTI pulls back from one week high.An upside break could recall late-September tops.23.6% Fibonacci retracement seems to be the next on sellers radar.WTI declines $58.30 while heading into the European open on Thursday. With this, the black gold repeats the pattern of pulling back from $58.70/80 as marked in the previous month. As a result, sellers can take aim at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of October-November rise, at $57.55, ahead of looking at the month-start top near $56.70. If prices keep it below $56.70, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and November 20 low, close to $55.70 and $54.90 respectively, can please the bears. Alternatively, an upside clearance of $58.80 will need validation from $59.00 while challenging September 19 high around $59.45. Additionally, $60.00 will be the key to watch beyond $59.45 as it holds the gate to the energy benchmark’s rise to September month top surrounding $63.13. WTI four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

ANZ analysts point out that for the NZ economy, the volume of building work put in place rose 0.4% q/q in Q3, and annual growth softened to 7.7% over

ANZ analysts point out that for the NZ economy, the volume of building work put in place rose 0.4% q/q in Q3, and annual growth softened to 7.7% over the past year. Key Quotes “Q3’s slight rise was below our expectation for a 2.2% lift and market expectations for a 1.0% q/q increase. Nominal activity rose 1.5% q/q (+11.6% y/y). By region, stronger building activity outside of the main cities more than offset a pullback in Wellington. The value of building activity was close to flat in Auckland and Canterbury in the quarter.” “The increase in volumes was driven by a lift in non-residential work, which was up 2.4% q/q, bouncing back from a 3.3% decline last quarter. This was a bit above our expectations for a 1.4% rise. Non-residential building activity can be lumpy, but has risen a solid 12.5% over the past year.” “Residential work was again softer than expected, falling 1.1% q/q, the second quarterly fall following a strong March quarter. This was weaker than the 2.7% rise we had expected, and annual growth slowed further to 4.5%.” “The level of construction activity is high, but upside to growth appears limited given weak residential construction intentions and capacity constraints in the industry.” “This print suggests a touch of downside risk around our provisional Q3 GDP estimate of 0.4% q/q, but stronger retail sales in Q3 provides an offset. There’s still a bit of data to come before we finalise our Q3 GDP pick.”

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the RBI to cut its repo rate by 25bps to 4.90% at this meeting. Key Quotes “The RBI will however, have to bala

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the RBI to cut its repo rate by 25bps to 4.90% at this meeting. Key Quotes “The RBI will however, have to balance continued weakness in economic data, with a jump in inflation. Since the last meeting industrial production has fallen sharply, while both exports and imports have continued to fall and the composite PMI has remained in contraction territory.” “Even the RBI's downwardly revised GDP forecast of 6.1% could be at risk. However, CPI could throw a spanner in the works, with October CPI rising to a higher than expected 4.62% y/y due to surging food prices. On balance we think that RBI will cut, with growth worries taking precedent.”

GBP/USD seesaws near 1.3115 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The pair nears the multi-month peak marked Wednesday amid broad optimism.

GBP/USD takes the bids near the multi-month high.Reuters stays upbeat on Brexit, BOE rate decision, elections polls keep Tories ahead.UK PM Johnson’s tax cut pledge counters other opposition party’s threats.GBP/USD seesaws near 1.3115 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The pair nears the multi-month peak marked Wednesday amid optimism surrounding the United Kingdom’s (UK) political plays. Be it expecting a soft Brexit or no rate change till 2022, versus the previous forecast of 2021, Reuters seems to be optimistic about the UK’s catalysts and the same might have lured the buyers. Also increasing the pair’s strength is The Telegraph’s news that Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson pledges £200 tax cut for millions within weeks of Tories being elected. On the contrary, The Independent signals that the opposition Labour Party raising worries for political donors while the BBC marks the increase in bills as conveyed by Labour's shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Though, The Guardian raises doubts on the ruling Tory Party’s leadership after the December election as polling by Opinium shows that the opposition Labour Party is beating the Conservatives by 25 points among Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic voters (BAME). Also increasing doubts is the ComRes poll that shows Conservatives and Labour both losing 1% to 42% and 32% respective stands. Moving on, the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s London visit for North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit couldn’t turn down the blames on the Tories that they’re planning to sell the National Healthcare System (NHS) to the US. Elsewhere, the US President Trump’s optimism concerning the trade talks with China failed to stop diplomats from the dragon nation while pouring cold water on the positive mood. Looking forward, markets are likely to keep eyes on the busy US economic calendar while also watching over trade/political headlines for fresh impulse. “The market is projecting the trade deficit to shrink further at the start of Q4 to USD -48.6bn in October from -52.2bn in the month before. Separately, consensus expects initial jobless claims to remain subdued at 215k for the week of Nov 30, essentially unchanged vs the prior week. The print would maintain claims close to record lows, suggesting the labor market remains resilient,” says TD Securities. Technical Analysis While a weekly closing beyond 1.3105 becomes necessary for the pair to aim for May high close to 1.3180, a downside break of October top, near 1.3013, can trigger a fresh pullback.  

ANZ analysts point out that Australia’s monthly trade surplus fell to AUD4,502m in October, a large fall on the revised September result but still a s

ANZ analysts point out that Australia’s monthly trade surplus fell to AUD4,502m in October, a large fall on the revised September result but still a solid surplus. Key Quotes “Total resource exports fell 10.4% m/m in October but are still 3.7% higher than a year ago. The large decline reflects falls across most resource exports, in particular iron ore, which fell 10.9% m/m, and non-monetary gold, which was down 24.7% m/m. Nevertheless, non-monetary gold exports are up 77.3% compared to a year ago. The RBA’s commodity price index was down 6.6% in the month, which suggests that some of the decline in resource exports was due to lower volumes. Manufacturing had a solid month, up 9.2% m/m, while rural goods were up 2.8% m/m. Service exports grew, up 0.5% m/m, but at a slower pace than earlier this year.” “Capital imports excluding civil aircraft fell 3.4% m/m, reversing the strong growth in the previous month. Most of the fall was in telecommunication equipment. Fuel imports were up 6.4% m/m in the month, possibly reflecting the rise in oil prices in October.”

In the view of the analysts at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), the outcome of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting is unlikely to of

In the view of the analysts at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), the outcome of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting is unlikely to offer any upside surprise and therefore it could dampen the oil market sentiment. Key Quotes: “The reality is that the physical market is too tight to justify deeper cuts and we do not see anything in the fundamental data that would argue that a major negative inflection point is upon us and needs any acute action to be protected against. Oil prices are headed higher in 12-18 months. With each passing day we continue to see incremental data points that reinforce what we have been saying for some time. Namely, that U.S. crude supply growth is shaping up to sit well below the recent trend and arguably has more downside risk than upside risk at this time.” Both crude benchmarks are seen consolidating Wednesday’s 4+% rally in Asia this Thursday, as they await the OPEC+ meeting outcome for the next direction. The black gold rallied a day before on the back of falling US crude stockpiles, US-China trade deal hopes and expectations of OPEC+ output cuts extension.

Andrew Hanlan, analyst at Westpac, notes that in October, the trade surplus narrowed to $4.5bn, down from $6.8bn (downgraded from $7.2bn) and was belo

Andrew Hanlan, analyst at Westpac, notes that in October, the trade surplus narrowed to $4.5bn, down from $6.8bn (downgraded from $7.2bn) and was below expectations (market median $6.5bn and Westpac $6.3bn). Key Quotes “Exports moderated, declining by -5.1% (-$2.2bn). That was a sharper than expected fall (f/c -$1.2bn).” “The drop in exports was likely due to a combination of lower prices and reduced volumes in the month.” “Imports edged higher (+$0.1), whereas we anticipated a small decline (f/c -$0.3bn).” “The trade surplus is in descent from the June peak – a record high of $7.9bn – which was associated with the temporary spike in the iron ore price that was largely due to the tailing dam disaster in Brazil.”

USD/INR trades around 71.52 as Indian markets open for Thursday’s trading. That said, the quote registered the heaviest drop since November 01 on Wednesday.

USD/INR recovers from four-day low amid cautious trade optimism.Traders keep eyes on odds of RBI’s another rate cut, growth comments.USD/INR trades around 71.52 as Indian markets open for Thursday’s trading. That said, the quote registered the heaviest drop since November 01 on Wednesday amid trade pessimism while comments from the US President Donald Trump recently triggered a pullback. The United States (US) President Donald Trump tried pleasing phase-one deal watchers the other day. However, Chinese diplomats poured cold water on the sentiment off-late. In addition to the trade jitters, expectations surrounding another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also favor the pair’s pullback. Even so, investors stay a little cautious ahead of the actual result from the RBI as it has already cut borrowing costs by 135 basis points (bps) so far in 2019. India’s BSE SENSEX nears 0.20% gains while the S&P/NIFTY 50 follows the suit while flashing 12,060 level. The US 10-year treasury yields stay on the back foot around 1.76% after rising the previous day. While a multi-year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) low and outlook downgrade from Moody’s are some of the reasons analysts keep expecting easy money policy from the Indian central bank. On the contrary, the recent “no change in outlook” by S&P, coupled with seasonal factors, are arguments of the contrarians. Other than the rate decision, the central bank’s comments on growth will also have a key impact on USD/INR as markets want to ascertain recently sluggish growth numbers from the Asian economies. Technical Analysis Unless breaking a month-old rising trend line around 71.42, sellers are less likely to enter, which in turn keeps the 72.00 mark on the cards.  

ANZ analysts note that Australia’s annual growth in retail sales fell to 2.1% in October, marking its two-year low and well below the medium- and long

ANZ analysts note that Australia’s annual growth in retail sales fell to 2.1% in October, marking its two-year low and well below the medium- and long-term averages for retail growth. Key Quotes “Over the month, food categories – particularly dining out (1.1% m/m), liquor (0.8% m/m) and specialised food retailing (1.7% m/m) – saw growth. In contrast, non-food discretionary categories broadly went backwards, particularly fashion, department stores and recreation goods.” “Annual growth results align with the discord between food/essentials and discretionary categories. Food retailing grew 3.1%, pharmaceuticals/ cosmetics/toiletries grew 5.4%, while household goods and department stores went backwards (-0.2% y/y for each) and fashion grew modestly (1.2% y/y). This speaks to structural budget pressures on households, which are focusing on “essentials” and small luxuries (eg dining out, fashion goods) and less on the bigger “nice to haves” (eg appliances, furniture, recreation products).” “Monthly growth was weakest in the South East. NSW, Vic and SA all went backwards. Qld (3.7% y/y), the ACT (4.3% y/y) and Tas (3.5% y/y) led annual growth.”

German factory orders rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, having risen by 1.3% in the preceding month, the official data, due at 07:00 GMT, is expect

German factory orders rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, having risen by 1.3% in the preceding month, the official data, due at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show. Factory orders are seen falling 6.1% in annualised terms, having dropped 5.4% in September. Lead indicators point to weakness IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing ticked higher to 42.1 in October from September's reading of 41.7, but remained well below 50, signaling ninth straight monthly contraction. More importantly, the new orders fell for the 13th consecutive month and factories shed jobs at the fastest pace in almost 10 years. All in all, factory orders are unlikely to have registered a growth in October. Impact on EUR/USD EUR/USD will likely face selling pressure if the data prints below estimates of 0.3% month-on-month growth. Note that the pair is already looking heavy, having created a candle with a long upper shadow on Wednesday.  However, if the German data unexpectedly blow past expectation, the single currency would find love. That said, a bullish breakout would be confirmed only if the pair finds acceptance above the Nov. 21 high of 1.1097. Post-factory orders data, the pair will be at the mercy of the broader market sentiment, the Eurozone Q3 GDP data, due at 10:00 GMT and the US factory orders scheduled at 15:00 GMT. About German Factory Orders The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

China’s failure to assent the US President Donald Trump’s trade-positive comments seem to keep an immediate check on the Asian stocks during early Thursday.

Asian stocks benefit from the US trade rhetoric, China spoils optimism.NIKKEI cheers news of Japanese stimulus, ASX 200 benefits from downbeat Aussie data.OPEC meeting, RBI decision keep traders guessing.China’s failure to assent the US President Donald Trump’s trade-positive comments seem to keep an immediate check on the Asian stocks during the pre-European session on Thursday. Markets earlier cheered downbeat data from Australia indicating further RBA rate cut and news of Japan’s extensive stimulus. The MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares mark 0.3% gains but Japan’s NIKKEI nears 0.70% in green after the Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe announced details of the heavy stimulus plan. Further, Australia’s downbeat Retail Sales and Trade Balance keep up the hopes of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which in turn can be witnessed in the ASX 200’s rise to 6,675 or +1.0%. Moving on, Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence help IDX Composite to mark 0.40% profits while Reuter’s news that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct medium-term lending facility operations (MLF) on Friday pleased Chinese stock buyers. Additionally, India’s BSE SENSEX registers 0.20% gain as traders are cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy meeting that could offer the sixth rate cut of 2019. The risk tone seems to lose the previous day’s optimism with the US 10-year treasury yields liquidating two basis points (bps) off its Wednesday’s gains to 1.76 whereas S&P 500 Futures also turns red by the press time. Other than the RBI meeting, global markets will also keep eyes on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in the Austrian capital Vienna. While most oil producers are supporting an extension of the present accord to output cut, Saudi Arabia and Iraq may convey disappointments in bearing the burden alone. It’s worth mentioning that a busy economic calendar and trade/political headlines will entertain market players going forward.

The latest survey conducted by Bank Indonesia (BI), the Indonesian central bank, showed that the country’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 124.2

The latest survey conducted by Bank Indonesia (BI), the Indonesian central bank, showed that the country’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 124.2 in November when compared to 118.4 booked in October.   More to come ...

Gold is trading in a sideways manner around $1,475 per Oz in Asia, having failed to close above key resistances on Wednesday. The yellow metal had ris

Gold is lacking a clear directional bias in Asia and is sidelined around $1,475.The metal failed to close above resistance at $1,475 on Wednesday despite weak US data. Gold is trading in a sideways manner around $1,475 per Oz in Asia, having failed to close above key resistances on Wednesday.  The yellow metal had risen to a high of $1,484 during the US trading hours, possibly in response to the dismal US data. The US ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 53.9 in November, from October's 54.7.  Meanwhile, the ADP National Employment data showed the private sector added just 67,000 jobs in November. The additions were was only about half the number expected.  The metal, however, failed to hold above the 50-day average at $1,482 and the Nov. 20 high of $1,478, as the Dollar Index (DXY), gold's biggest nemesis, recovered from the post-data low of 97.43 to 97.60.  Also, the US stocks picked up a bid and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 147 points or 0.53% on the US-China trade optimism, weakening the haven demand for gold.  The failed breakout has opened doors for a pullback to the ascending 5-day moving average (MA) at $1,470. A strong bounce from there would reinforce the immediate bullish setup A re-test of the 50-day MA resistance at $1,482 cannot be ruled out, as the DXY is flashing red at press time. The futures on the S&P 500 are also struggling to extend the overnight rally.  Technical levels  

Having reversed from 50-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) and monthly support line, USD/JPY stays mostly unchanged to 108.85 during early Thursday.

USD/JPY trades modestly changed after bouncing off near-term key support confluence.23.6% of Fibonacci retracement can validate the pair’s upside break of 200-DMA.Bearish MACD highlights November bottom on the break below 108.50.Having reversed from 50-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) and monthly support line, USD/JPY stays mostly unchanged to 108.85 during early Thursday. The pair stays slightly below 200-DMA level of 108.90 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October-December rise, at 108.96. With this, buyers should look for entry only if prices close beyond 109.00. In doing so, Early November highs near 109.50 and the recent top surrounding 109.75 could become their favorites. Meanwhile, 108.50 acts as the near-term important support confluence, a break of which could direct the quote lower to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 108.10 and November month bottom around 107.85. On a further downside under 107.85, bears can take aim at 107.30 and October low near 106.50. USD/JPY daily chart Trend: Sideways  

Speaking at speak at the Gala 2019 of the US-China Business Council, Cui Tiankai, Chinese Ambassador to the US said: “China and the US need to get the

Speaking at speak at the Gala 2019 of the US-China Business Council, Cui Tiankai, Chinese Ambassador to the US said: “China and the US need to get the basics of their relations right and strengthen communication on strategic issues. There is no “Thucydides trap” in the world, and the real trap will only come from misunderstanding, misjudgment and obstinate prejudice”. This follows Thursday’s comments from China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, as he noted that “Beijing and Washington must increase strategic communication and work together based on the consensus reached by the two countries' heads of state”. The above piece of information could be in the context of the ongoing US-China trade talks but for now it seems to have little effect on the markets, as USD/JPY continues its struggle around 200-DMA of 108.88 while the Aussie nurses losses incurred from dismal Australian macro data.

Reuters quotes some sources with the knowledge of the matter, as saying that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct medium-term lending facili

Reuters quotes some sources with the knowledge of the matter, as saying that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct medium-term lending facility operations (MLF) on Friday to roll over maturing loans. Nothing further is reported on the same. Meanwhile, USD/CNY trades better bid near 7.0550 levels, as markets have started taking the latest trade deal optimism with a pinch of salt.

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6842, representing marginal losses on the day, having hit a low of 0.6833 two hours go on the back of dismal Aussie

AUD/USD has trimmed losses but still remains in the red. Repeated rejection above 0.6850 has neutralized the immediate bullish setup. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6842, representing marginal losses on the day, having hit a low of 0.6833 two hours go on the back of dismal Aussie data.  The daily chart shows the bulls have repeatedly failed to keep the pair above 0.6850 since Dec. 3. As a result, the immediate bullish view put forward by the pair's breakout on Dec. 2 stands neutralized.  A close above Wednesday's Doji candle's high of 0.6855 is needed to revive the bullish setup. The MACD histogram has already crossed into the bullish territory above zero.  Therefore, a close above 0.6855, if confirmed, could yield a quick rally to recent highs near 0.6930.  On the flip side, a close below Wednesday's low of 0.6813 would confirm a bearish Doji reversal.  Daily chartTrend: Neutral  Technical levels  

Japanese manufacturers turned less gloomy about their business conditions in December and the sentiment is expected to improve further over the coming

Japanese manufacturers turned less gloomy about their business conditions in December and the sentiment is expected to improve further over the coming three quarters, according to the Reuters Tankan poll.  The sentiment index for manufacturers stood at minus 6, up three points from the previous month, according to the survey conducted Nov. 20-Dec. 2.  November's print was the lowest since 2013. Further, the index is seen rising to minus 1 in March. The service-sector index also grew to plus 14, up two points from the previous month.  Indeed, with Prime Minister Abe set to approve an economic stimulus package worth JPY 26 trillion  ($239 billion), the business confidence is likely to improve over the coming months. 
 

USD/INR pair fell 0.44% on Wednesday, confirming the biggest single-day drop since Nov. 1. The Indian unit found takers despite dovish expectations fo

The Rupee strengthened Wednesday despite dovish RBI expectations. RBI is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. USD/INR pair fell 0.44% on Wednesday, confirming the biggest single-day drop since Nov. 1. The Indian unit found takers despite dovish expectations for more easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).  India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit an over six-year low of 4.5 percent in July-September 2019, the official data released last Friday showed.  Even so, the Indian Rupee has remained resilient this week. The currency fell to 71.75 per US dollar on Monday only to rise to 71.35 per dollar on Wednesday.  RBI to cut rates The Indian central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday on growth concerns.  The bank has already cut the current fiscal year's GDP forecast by 80 basis points and has reduced rates by 135 basis points since February 2019.  Even so, the growth remains tepid. As a result, many economists believe additional rate cuts may not have a material impact on the economy. The Rupee, however, may come under pressure if RBI's head Shaktikanta Das sends out a strong dovish signal for 2020. Currency strategists polled by Reuters believe the Indian unit would face selling pressure in 2020 due to doubts over any kind of trade truce between the United States and China. The Rupee may open higher in response to the dismal US data released Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing activity index fell to 53.9 in November, down from 54.7, meanwhile, the ADP National Employment data showed an increase of just 67,000 jobs, which was only about half the number expected. Technical levels  

Ahead of the highly-anticipated Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision due later on Thursday at 0615 GMT, the latest poll of currency

Ahead of the highly-anticipated Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision due later on Thursday at 0615 GMT, the latest poll of currency strategists surveyed by Reuters showed that the Indian rupee will remain under pressure in the coming year amid doubts over any kind of trade truce between the United States and China. Key Findings: “The Dec. 2-4 poll, taken before the monetary policy committee's announcement due later on Thursday, showed the currency would weaken 0.6% to 72.00 per dollar in a year from 71.57 where it was trading around on Wednesday. The year ahead outlook was the most the pessimistic for the rupee since October. Over the coming year, 23 of 51 strategists expected the rupee to breach 72.40 against the dollar - its weakest trade this year. Six of those expected it to weaken beyond its lifetime low of 74.48 per dollar. But a few analysts argued the rupee's weakness was a deliberate attempt by the RBI to boost exports that have been on a downward trend.”

USD/IDR drops to 14,090 by the press time of early Thursday in Asia. The pair is on the third day of losing streak but stays above near-term key support.

USD/IDR registers the third day of declines.Mid-November lows will be on bear’s radar during further declines.Buyers will wait unless clearing 50% Fibonacci retracement of August-September fall.USD/IDR drops to 14,090 by the press time of early Thursday in Asia. The pair is on the third day of losing streak but stays above near-term key support confluence. Unless providing a clear break below 14,087/85 area including a month-long rising support line and 50-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA), prices can keep the monthly upward trajectory that leads to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 14,130. It’s worth mentioning that 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 14,180 and October top close to 14,215 will be the Bull’s favorite during pair’s rise past-14,130. On the contrary, a daily closing below 14,085 could drag prices to multiple lows marked in mid-November around 14,030 ahead of shifting focus to 14,000 round-figure. Further, the November month low near 13,965 and September bottom close to 13,910 could lure bears afterward. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

EUR/JPY is trading in the 120.60s at the time of writing having moved within a range from 120.55 to a high of 120.71 following a corrective bid at the

Risk sentiment got a boost overnight on a Bloomberg reporting positive trade news, boosting EUR/JPY. European data in the spotlight ahead of next week's ECB, the first with Christine Lagarde at the helm. EUR/JPY is trading in the 120.60s at the time of writing having moved within a range from 120.55 to a high of 120.71 following a corrective bid at the overnight lows of 120.09. The single currency has been robust, despite the ebbs and flows of risk-on and risk-off while the US dollar gives way across the board.  Risk sentiment got a boost overnight on trade deal headlines which superseded the prior day's negative comments from US President Donald Trump. As the count down to the 15th Dec tariff deadline, in a Bloomberg article, it was reported from sources who would rather not be named, that a Sino/US trade deal was in the making and that there had been some movement closer to an agreement of a rollback on tariffs despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang. The news sent equities higher for which EUR/JPY is positively correlated to.  European data in view Meanwhile, eyes from here will be firmly placed on today's European data. The final estimate of Eurozone Q3 Gross Domestic Product is expected to remain at 0.2% for the quarter and 1.2% for the year. This fall in before next week's European Central Bank meeting and will be the first with Christine Lagarde at the helm. ECB to hold "We look for the ECB to hold policy steady, and have pushed back our forecast for rate cuts by one quarter to March and June 2020. With the Eurozone growth data having stabilised for now, there isn't any sense of urgency to ease further right away, leaving Ms Lagarde to focus on mending fences and building a consensus in her early days," analysts at TD Securities argued who said that they have pushed back their rate cut forecasts by one quarter and now look for 10bps depo rate cuts in March and June instead. EUR/JPY levels
 

NZD/USD has hit four-month highs and is looking overbought for the first time since November 2018, according to key indicators. The pair is currently

NZD/USD has hit the highest level since Oct. 1.The daily RSI is reporting overbought readings for the first time in over 12 months. NZD/USD has hit four-month highs and is looking overbought for the first time since November 2018, according to key indicators.  The pair is currently trading just above the 200-day average of 0.6541, having hit a high of 0.6562 an hour ago. That was the highest level since Aug. 6. The Kiwi is currently reporting a 5.5 percent gain on the low of 0.6204 registered on Oct. 1, but it still down 2.3% on a year-to-date basis.  The higher lows and higher highs pattern on the daily chart indicate the path of least resistance is to the higher side. However, the 14-day relative strength index, a widely used technical tool, is reporting overbought conditions with an above-70 print for the first time in 13 months.  The pair, therefore, could consolidate or witness a minor pullback in the short-term before potential rally toward 0.67. That argument would gain credence if signs of bullish exhaustion emerge on the daily chart in the form of a candle with long upper wick, Doji, bearish outside day, etc.  Note that an overbought reading represents extreme short-term bullish move and does not imply a bearish reversal.  A bearish reversal would be confirmed if and when the pair violates the higher lows set up with a move below 0.6394. Daily chartTrend: Overbought Technical levels  

WTI fails to hold on to recovery gains while trading near $58.35 during early Thursday. The black gold recently surged to the week’s top but pulled back.

WTI clings to one week high amid a lack of major catalyst ahead of the key event.The US denies plans to send more troops to the Middle East, tension with Iran prevails.OPEC leader changes the tone, trade optimism is alive while inventories drop.WTI fails to hold on to recovery gains while trading near $58.35 during early Thursday. The black gold recently surged to the week’s top but pulled back from multiple tops marked in November. Expectations of a push to broad output cuts by the global oil producers and a lesser than forecast inventory data from the United States (US) propelled the energy benchmark on Wednesday. Also contributing to the prices were the US President’s recent shift conveying “very good” progress in the trade talks with China and the US-Iran tussle. Traders seem to concentrate more on the recent tweet from the US Department of Defence’s press secretary Alyssa Farah turns down the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) earlier piece suggesting the Trump administration’s plan to send 14,000 more troops to the Middle East. Also, the absence of any upbeat comments from China and increasing odds of the US President Donald Trump’s impeachment, as conveyed by the Washington Post, keep the risk-tone under check. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members are all set to begin a two-day long meeting in the Austrian capital of Vienna and updates from there will be the key energy driver. Bloomberg suggests that the leader Saudi Arabia seems to step back from its earlier push to high production cuts while Iraq also walks back comments suggesting 400,000 barrels a day of an output cut. Other than the OPEC meeting, prices could also give importance to trade/political headlines for intermediate moves. Technical Analysis Multiple tops near $58.70/80 keep the oil prices under check and hence bulls will wait for a clear break of $59.00 to be sure of targeting September 19 top near $59.50. Alternatively, $57.30 acts as immediate support.  

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Yutaka Harada is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech, with the key comments found below. Key

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Yutaka Harada is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech, with the key comments found below. Key Quotes: The Bank has implemented quantitative and qualitative monetary easing -- or QQE for short -- since April 2013 and introduced various additional measures such as the negative interest rate policy, yield curve control, strengthening the framework for continuous monetary easing, and clarification of forward guidance for policy rates, all with the aim of achieving the inflation target of 2 percent. As a result of these measures, Japan’s economy has been improving. It is true that the economic expansion has not exactly been robust, reflecting such events as the consumption tax hike in fiscal 2014 from 5 percent to 8 percent, the latest hike in October 2019 from 8 percent to 10 percent, the slowdown in the global economy observed from mid-2015 through early 2016 and from the second half of 2018 to the present, and the downtrend in the working-age population.

The probability of the UK leaving the European Union in a disorderly manner has dropped to the lowest level since May 2019, according to economists po

The probability of the UK leaving the European Union in a disorderly manner has dropped to the lowest level since May 2019, according to economists polled by Reuters.  Key points Chances of Brexit have dropped to 15%, the lowest level since May 2019, from November's 20%. EU-UK free trade agreement remains the most likely outcome of Brexit, all economists polled said.  The Bank of England (BOE) will keep the bank rate at 0.75% until 2022. Previously economists were expecting the central bank to stand pat till the second half of 2021. Conservative majority outcome at Dec. 12 election would be best for the UK economy, 30 of 38 economists said.  Economists expect Sterling to rise to $1.35 in 12 months. The previous forecast was for a rise to $1.32. 
 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday the government would compile an economic stimulus package worth about 13 trillion yen (£93.53 bill

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday the government would compile an economic stimulus package worth about 13 trillion yen (£93.53 billion) in fiscal spending, including an extra budget from this fiscal year and spending earmarked for fiscal 2020. Actual spending at about JPY9.4 trillion. The package would rise to 25 trillion yen ($230 billion) when private-sector and other spending are included, sources have told Reuters

The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 70521 versus Wednesday's fix at 7.0513

The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 70521 versus Wednesday's fix at 7.0513

EUR/USD is looking south, having faced strong rejection above key resistance at 1.1097 in the overnight trade. The pair clocked a high of 1.1116 durin

Wednesday's candle is signaling buyer exhaustion above key resistance. EUR/USD is likely to test dip demand with a drop to 1.1050.EUR/USD is looking south, having faced strong rejection above key resistance at 1.1097 in the overnight trade. The pair clocked a high of 1.1116 during the US trading hours only to close Wednesday with marginal losses at 1.1078. Essentially, the pair created a candle with a long upper shadow, signaling buyer exhaustion above the bearish lower high of 1.1097 created on Nov. 21. The pair is now likely to test dip demand with a drop to 1.1050 – more so, as the MACD histogram on the 4-hour chart has crossed below zero. Currently, EUR/USD is sidelined around 1.1080.  The recent lows below 1.10 could come into play if the pair finds acceptance below 1.1066 (Wednesday's low), confirming a bearish reversal. On the flip side, a convincing close above 1.1097 is needed to invalidate the lower highs set up and confirm a bullish reversal. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Having surged to the highest in nearly seven months, GBP/JPY clings to a multi-month-old resistance line on early Thursday.

GBP/JPY clings to half-yearly resistance line while trading around the highest since May 13.Buyers seem to catch a breath after a heavy rush to the north, an upside break could recall March-April lows.21-day EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement act as immediate supports.Having surged to the highest in nearly seven months, GBP/JPY seesaws around 142.70 during Asian session on Thursday. The pair clings to a multi-month-old resistance line and requires a sustained break of 142.73/75 to take aim at lows marked in March and April months around 143.72/80. However, a downside break below November month high close to141.85 can drag the pair back to 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 140.75 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-August downpour surrounding 140.35. Given the sellers’ dominance past-140.35, 140.00 round-figure could offer an intermediate halt to the previous month low near 139.30. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The Australian dollar is being offered in response to the weaker-than-expected Aussie retail sales and trade balance numbers released at 00:30 GMT. Th

AUD/USD is flashing red, having hit a session low of 0.6833 soon before press time. Australia's retail sales for November came in well below forecasts and trade surplus narrowed more than expected. The data may bolster dovish RBA expectations, keeping the AUD under pressure. The Australian dollar is being offered in response to the weaker-than-expected Aussie retail sales and trade balance numbers released at 00:30 GMT. The growth in consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, stalled in November, missing the expected increase of 0.3% following October's 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the trade surplus, the gap between exports and imports, fell to A$ 4,502 million. The surplus was forecasted to drop to A$ 6,100 million from October's A$ 7,180 million. The dismal data is likely to bolster the bets of additional easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2020. At press time, the central bank is to cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 0.5% in February. Meanwhile, many Australian fund managers have already started preparing for unconventional policies like quantitative easing. As a result, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain under pressure during the day ahead. The pair has already dropped by 20 pips to hit a session low of 0.6833 in the last ten minutes. AUD/USD created a classic Doji candle with a long lower shadow on Wednesday, as the below-forecast US data helped the pair recover early losses. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing activity index fell to 53.9 in November, down from 54.7, the data released on Wednesday showed. Notably, Manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth month in a row with new orders down to their lowest level since 2012. Meanwhile, the ADP National Employment data showed an increase of just 67,000 jobs, which was only about half the number expected. Technical levels  

AUD/JPY plummets to 74.36 amid the Asian session on Thursday. The pair reacts to the downbeat Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers from Australia.

AUD/JPY trims nearly 30 pips off its previous day’s gains.Australia’s October month Trade Balance, Retail Sales disappoint AUD buyers.Japan's government nears economic stimulus, US-China trade talks are going “very well”.AUD/JPY plummets to 74.36 amid the Asian session on Thursday. The pair reacts to the downbeat Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers from Australia. Australia’s October month Trade Balance slipped below 6,100M forecast to 4,502M while Retail Sales lagged behind 0.3% market consensus to 0.0%. This joins the previously released downbeat Aussie Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and indicates hardships for the Australian dollar (AUD). Read: Aussie data dump: Retail Sales, ( 0% vs 0.3% exp ) Trade Balance, ( 450M vs 6100M exp ) sends AUD/USD -0.18% Further, Reuters’ news that Japan’s government is near to economic stimulus package worth about 13 trillion Japanese yen (JPY) also drags the pair down. Trade sentiment again witnesses downside pressure as the Washington Post conveys that the United States (US) House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler said President Trump’s conduct with Ukraine rose to an impeachable offense. Also contributing to the market pessimism could be the talks surrounding the US-Iran relation after The Telegraph said that the Trump administration considers 14,000 more troops for the Middle East. The pair traders were earlier cheering the US President Donald Trump’s comments that the trade talks with China are going “very well”. With no major data on the economic calendar, investors will keep eyes on trade/political headlines for fresh direction. Technical Analysis Pair’s rise beyond the monthly top surrounding 74.85 holds the key to further increase towards a 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level near 75.30 and November month high around 75.70. Sellers look for entry below two-week-old rising trend line, at 73.90 now.  

AUD's marathon of data has continued today with the release of the October Retail Sales and Trade Balance. Note: Retail Sales was the main focus in th

AUD's marathon of data has continued today with the release of the October Retail Sales and Trade Balance. Note: Retail Sales was the main focus in these releases. AUD has dropped around 20 pips on the knee jerk and still counting.  The data arrived as follows Imports (Oct)   0% vs prior 3%. Exports (Oct)   -5% vs prior 3%. Trade Balance (Oct)   4502 M vs 6100 M expected and prior 7180 M Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Oct)   0% vs 0.3% expected and prior 0.2%  AUD/USD has dumped 0.17% and counting for the session on the knee-jerk on the back of the combined disappointments in the data. More to come... Descriptions The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance Analysts comments Analysts at Westpac, ahead of the data, explained that in yesterday’s national accounts: "The ABS noted that the “reduction to tax payable did not translate to a rise in discretionary spending, which led to a visible impact to household saving.” Indeed household consumption spending rose just 0.1%qtr, with spending on discretionary goods and services falling -0.3%. The Oct retail sales survey is the first official reading on the consumer for Q4." As for the trade balance, the analysts at Westpac said that Australia was on track for its 22nd consecutive monthly trade surplus in Oct. "Markets will focus most on retail sales but consistently large trade surpluses should not be forgotten as a source of support for A$." AUD levels to watch  Support levels: 0.6800 0.6770  0.6730   Resistance levels: 0.6865 0.6890 0.6920 Prior to the data, Valeria Bednarik, the Chief analyst at FXStret argued that, "the pair, however, would only turn bearish on a break below the 0.6800 figure."View Live Chart for the AUD/USD 

Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.3%) in October

Australia Imports dipped from previous 3% to 0% in October

Australia Exports fell from previous 3% to -5% in October

Australia Trade Balance registered at 4502M, below expectations (6100M) in October

USD/CAD declines to 1.3183 by the press time of Thursday’s Asian session. The quote tests the lowest levels since November 19.

USD/CAD sellers cheer trade optimism.The pair slumped the previous day after BOC’s upbeat tone joined broad USD weakness.US-China trade talks are going well, the economic calendar can offer additional volatility.USD/CAD declines to 1.3183 by the press time of Thursday’s Asian session. The quote tests the lowest levels since November 19. With the United States (US) President Donald Trump indicating that the US-China trade talks are going “very well”, the pair bears gained further strength to extend the previous slump led by the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) upbeat comments. The BOC praised investment as housing due to population growth and low mortgage rates. It has also been positively surprised by the strong growth in business expenditure, despite the decline in exports. Read: Breaking: USD/CAD tumbles down upbeat BOC tone Also supporting the move is the latest run-up in oil prices, the main export item for Canada. Upbeat inventory levels and fresh tension concerning the US and Iran seem to please energy buyers off-late. Furthermore, the broad weakness of the US dollar (USD), mainly due to downbeat data, gave the pair sellers a competitive edge. Traders will now look for further directions from China to confirm the recent optimism surrounding the US-China phase-one. Also, comments from BOC’s Deputy Governor Timothy Lane, Canadian Trade Balance and Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Survey, for October and November respectively, will provide additional clues. Ahead of the busy session, TD Securities says, “TD looks for the merchandise trade deficit to widen to $2.0bn in October from $0.98bn (market: -$1.4bn), reflecting a large drop in motor vehicle exports after the US GM strike led to a parts shortage across Canadian auto plants. This will contribute to a broader pullback in export activity while a modest decline in imports will provide a partial offset. At 7:45 ET, we will hear from BoC Deputy Governor Tim Lane who will deliver an economic progress report following Wednesday's decision. Lane's speech will include an audience Q&A, with an official press conference scheduled to follow at 9:20 ET.” Technical Analysis Unless crossing a 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.3235 prices are vulnerable to revisit September month low near 1.3130.  

GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3100 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair clings to a multi-month-old rising resistance line amid overbought RSI.

GBP/USD nears the seven month high.An upward sloping trend line since late-June, overbought conditions of RSI highlight October top as nearby support.Bulls can target May high, yearly top during the further rise.GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3100 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair clings to a multi-month-old rising resistance line amid overbought conditions of 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). Sellers look for entry below October month high, at 1.3013, to take aim at November top surrounding 1.2985. Though, 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could restrict the pair’s further declines near 1.2930. Should prices decline below 21-day EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-September fall, at 1.2840, holds the key for the pair’s further south-run towards the previous month low near 1.2770 and 200-day EMA close to 1.2707. On the contrary, bulls will wait for a successful break of Wednesday’s high of 1.3121 to target the May month top surrounding 1.3180. Moreover, the pair’s extended rise past-1.3180 enables it to challenge 1.3270 and the yearly high around 1.3385. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today announced its final decision on banks' capital requirements. The decision has appeared to have been the cause fo

RBNZ fives banks seven years to increase capital buffers.The decision will take effect from July 2020.Commonwealth Bank which shares rose 1.4%, National Australia Bank shares rise 1.4% and Westpac shares rise 0.6%.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today announced its final decision on banks' capital requirements. The decision has appeared to have been the cause for a sudden spike in the Kiwi, regardless of the negative implications for Gross Domestic Product. the move could even be considered being more of a defensive move which would be arguably bearish for the Kiwi considering the undertones of a weak economy requiring such capital control adjustments. Nontheless, it is a relief for the financials, such as Commonwealth Bank which shares rose 1.4% after the release of the new capital requirements - (National Australia Bank shares rise 1.4% and Westpac shares rise 0.6%). "The overall decision is in line with its previous proposals to increase the overall amount of bank equity, but some aspects are softer," analysts at ANZ Bank explained, adding ... The total required level of Tier-1 capital for the major banks will be 16%, as proposed, but the transition period has been extended to seven years (from five). Importantly, the definition and amount of allowable Tier-1 capital has been expanded from the original proposals. Meanwhile, the decision will take effect from July 2020. The RBNZ also offered more flexibility to banks on the use of specific capital instruments.“Our decisions are not just about dollars and cents,” said RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr. “More capital in the banking system better enables banks to weather economic volatility and maintain good, long-term, customer outcomes,” he said.  RBNZ outlook The analysts at ANZ Bank continue to see a lower OCR in time and said these changes will contribute to that, though less than previously expected. A softening of the proposals, combined with a more positive domestic outlook (and in particular upside to government infrastructure spending), mean we are changing our OCR call to only one further 25bp OCR cut in May next year, taking the OCR to 0.75%. We will review once we have more detail in the fiscal update next week. Impact on the economy The RBNZ suggests the impact on the economy will be negligible, with an impact of around 20bps on lending rates. "We expect a larger impact on both retail interest rates (30-60bp, spread unevenly by sector and subject to considerable uncertainty) and credit availability than the RBNZ does, and therefore more of a negative impact on GDP," the analysts argued. "However, any impact will be difficult to separately identify, since it will occur over a long time period where many other offsetting forces will be at play."

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks rose from previous ¥131.7B to ¥394B in November 29

Japan Foreign Bond Investment declined to ¥-511.1B in November 29 from previous ¥-155.2B

NZD/USD rises to the fresh high since August while taking the bids to 0.6555 during Thursday’s Asian session. The latest catalyst for the surge comes from RBNZ.

NZD/USD takes the bids to the highest levels since early-August.RBNZ announces a 16% capital ratio with less transition period and upbeat comments.NZD/USD rises to the fresh high since August while taking the bids to 0.6555 during Thursday’s Asian session. The latest catalyst for the surge comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) capital decision. The RBNZ recently announced its final decision on banks’ capital requirements while saying, “The key decisions, which start to take effect from 1 July 2020, include banks’ total capital increasing from a minimum of 10.5% to 18% for the four large banks and 16% for the remaining smaller banks.” Though, an extended transition period, from five to seven, and changes to the definition and amount of allowable Tier-1 capital seem to offer relief to the banks. More importantly, the policymakers cited optimism while suggesting the impact on the economy will be negligible, with an impact of around 20bps on lending rates. With this, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group says, “we continue to see a lower OCR in time and these changes will contribute to that, though less than previously expected. A softening of the proposals, combined with a more positive domestic outlook (and in particular upside to government infrastructure spending), mean we are changing our OCR call to only one further 25bp OCR cut in May next year, taking the OCR to 0.75%. We will review once we have more detail in the fiscal update next week.” Earlier during the day, New Zealand’s third quarter (Q3) Construction Spending rose to 0.4% versus -1.5% prior. The recently renewed sentiment surrounding the phase-one deal between the United States (US) and China also seems to help the pair register the gains. The economic calendar has no domestic data/event up for publishing but Retail Sales and Trade Balance from the largest customer Australia can offer immediate direction. Further, the US data-line is a bit longer that could join trade headlines to offer a busy day ahead. Technical Analysis Overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) can stop kiwi Bulls around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July-October downpour, near 0.6570, failure to do so can print 0.6500 on the chart.  

USD/JPY is steady in the Asia open as we head into the later part of the week in anticipation of critical Aussie, EZ and US data as well as a likely b

Markets jumped on a Bloomberg trade story which sent the yen back to a low of 108.90 vs the greenback.USD/JPY's advance to 200-DMA is still seen as corrective according to the 4-hours chart.USD/JPY is steady in the Asia open as we head into the later part of the week in anticipation of critical Aussie, EZ and US data as well as a likely barrage of continuous trade headlines. USD/JPY is consolidating around 108.80 having rallied from below 108.50 to current levels. Markets jumped on a Bloomberg trade story which sent the yen back to a low of 108.90 vs the greenback while US stocks rallied with benchmarks on Wall Street snapping a three-day losing streak.  Investors brushed aside President Donald Trump's previous day's comments which had sent markets into a tailspin, as well as a Reuters story citing Chinese sources indicating that the US House bill on Xinjiang could jeopardise negotiations. Instead, investors cheered the Bloomberg's sources report that claimed the US and China are “moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase-one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang.”This was followed by, "The people, who asked not to be identified, said that U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments Tuesday downplaying the urgency of a deal shouldn’t be understood to mean the talks were stalling, as he was speaking off the cuff. Recent U.S. legislation seeking to sanction Chinese officials over human-rights issues in Hong Kong and Xinjiang are unlikely to impact the talks, one person familiar with Beijing’s thinking said."US data in the mix of trade headlines weigh on USD Besides trade headlines, the US dollar was subjected to yet further economic data disappointments. This time, the US Non-Manufacturing ISM missed the mark, falling below expectations for November, dropping to 53.9 from 54.7 prior. The data was expected at 54.5. The ADP November private payrolls also disappointed, with a rise of 67k against an estimate of 135k.   Given all of the above, the US 2-year Treasury yields climbed from 1.53% to 1.58% while the 10-year yields rose from 1.70% to 1.78%. "Markets are pricing a near-zero chance of easing at the Fed’s 11 Dec meeting but a terminal rate of 1.17% (vs Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently)," analysts at Westpac noted.  As for US benchmarks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 146.97 points, 0.5%, to 27,649.78 while the S&P 500 index put on 19.56 points, or 0.6%, to close at 3,112.76. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 46.03 points, or 0.5%, to end the day at 8,566.67.  Key data on the horizon Looking ahead, we have the last of a marathon of economic data that brings the Aussie into focus for this week – Trade Balance and Retail Sales are up for grabs. We then have Eurozone Q3 Gross Domestic Product. finally, for Friday in the US, Nonfarm Payrolls will be the major risk event to finalise the week.  USD/JPY levelsWhile bulls challenge the 200-DMA, Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst, at FXStreet explained that USD/JPY advance is still seen as corrective according to the 4-hour chart: The pair is currently battling with a directionless 100 SMA, but below a firmly bearish 20 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, recovered from oversold readings, with the RSI having lost upward strength currently at 47. The positive momentum needs to drive the pair beyond 109.30 for bears to give up.    

Early Thursday morning in Asia at 00:30 GMT markets will see Australia’s October month Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers.

Overview Early Thursday morning in Asia at 00:30 GMT markets will see Australia’s October month Retail Sales and Trade Balance numbers. While these numbers were previously considered second-tier, the latest disappointment from Aussie data and mixed clues from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) make every figure important for AUD/USD traders. Market expectations favor a soft reading of Trade Balance, to 6,100M from 7,180M prior, versus likely improvement in Retail Sales growth to 0.3% against 0.2% earlier. Details suggest that Imports and Exports reported 3% growth each during the previous month. Ahead of the reading, Westpac says, The Oct retail sales survey is the first official reading on the consumer for Q4. Westpac looks for a sluggish 0.3%mth (nominal) rise in sales, in line with consensus. There remains some hope that the tax offsets will belatedly come through. Australia is on track for its 22nd consecutive monthly trade surplus in Oct. Westpac looks for the surplus to slip from A$7.2bn to $6.3bn, with exports -2.8%mth, led by lower iron ore prices and volumes and a retracement in gold exports. Imports should ease back a little too (-0.8%), partially correcting a 2.5% jump in Sep. Markets will focus most on retail sales but consistently large trade surpluses should not be forgotten as a source of support for A$. How could they affect AUD/USD? The recently mixed Gross Domestic Product (GDP), down on QoQ and up on YoY, increases the uncertainty triggered through the RBA’s refrain from providing any strong clues to future monetary policy actions. Further, the on and off concerning the odds of the phase-one trade deal between the United States (US) and China also keep Aussie traders on their toes. With this, both the scheduled data are of importance to provide a notable move of AUD/USD. While upbeat readings can dim prospects of RBA’s excessive monetary policy easing in 2020, the otherwise case could weigh on the pair amid looming US-China tussle. Technically, 0.6920/30 area including 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and October high becomes the key upside resistance area while pair’s declines below 100-day EMA level, near 0.6840 now, could recall 0.6800 on the charts. Key notes AUD/USD consolidates recent gains to 0.6850, eyes on Aussie trade balance, retail sales AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls losing interest after dismal GDP figures About Australian Retail Sales The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. About Australian Trade Balance The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

South Korea Current Account Balance registered at 7.83B above expectations (7.47B) in October

Gold prices decline to $1,474.50 amid the initial Asian session on Thursday. The bullion pulled back from 50-DMA while portraying a bearish candlestick.

Gold stays on the back foot after declining the previous day.A U-turn from the near-term key moving average, bearish candlestick formation indicates further downside.Bullish MACD, repeated bounces off $1,450/45 favors the buyers.Gold prices decline to $1,474.50 amid the initial Asian session on Thursday. The bullion pulled back from 50-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) while portraying a bearish candlestick formation during the previous day. That said, the 21-DMA level around $1,465/66 can act as immediate support ahead of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of August-September upside, at $1,460. However, the safe-haven’s additional fall could repeat its November month reversal from $1,450/45 support-zone. In a case the yellow metal fails to respect $1,445, July 25 top near $1,433 and August bottom close to $1,400 will be on bears’ radar. On the upside, a daily closing beyond 50-DMA level of $1,482 can trigger the quote’s run-up to confront a three-month-old descending trend line, at 1,493. Though, a successful rise past-$1,493 will be a call for the Bulls to target $1,500 and the previous month pear surrounding $1,515. Gold daily chart Trend: Bearish  

The Telegraph recently ran a story based on the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s statement of intent for the first 100 days of ruling.

The Telegraph recently ran a story based on the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s statement of intent for the first 100 days of a new Tory government. Key quotes It comes as the Conservatives prepare a major advertising blitz to counteract any swing back to Labour in the final seven days of the election campaign amid fears Remainers desperate to stop Brexit are switching to Labour. An exclusive poll for The Daily Telegraph found independent candidates were gaining ground amid a growing disaffection with the main parties ahead of polling day next Thursday. FX implications While the GBP/USD pair shows a less reaction to the news, taking rounds to 1.3100 amid initial Thursday morning in Asia, updates like this could help improve the odds of the Tory leadership polls and can support the cable moving forward.

AUD/USD declines to 0.6848 by the press time of early Thursday morning in Asia. The pair fails to extend the previous day’s recovery.

AUD/USD retraces from a multi-week high.A shift in risk sentiment, disappointing data from the US helped recover losses from Aussie GDP.Fresh trade headlines will be taken with a pinch of salt coupled with data from Australia and the US.AUD/USD declines to 0.6848 by the press time of early Thursday morning in Asia. The pair fails to extend the previous day’s recovery while taking rounds to the multi-week top marked on Tuesday. The United States (US) President Donald Trump triggered a fresh wave of trade optimism after saying that trade talks with China are going “very well”. The move is in sharp contrast to his previous comments signaling the phase-one pushed back to late-2020. Elsewhere, the US-Iran tussle is providing a mildly negative pull to the trade sentiment. The trade news triggered a recovery in the market’s risk tone and the US 10-year treasury yields covered nearly seven basis points (bps), to 1.78%, from Tuesday’s losses. Further, Wall Street snapped three-day losing streak while S&P 500 Futures also mark 0.70% profits to 3,110 while writing. On the economic front, Australia’s third-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) dropped below expectations on QoQ but was less disappointing that the US calendar that carried four-month low ADP and sluggish services activity numbers. Moving on, Australia’s October month Trade Balance and Retail Sales (MoM), expected 6,100M and 0.3% versus 0.2% and 7,180M respectively, could act as immediate catalysts. “The October retail sales survey is the first official reading on the consumer for Q4. Westpac looks for a sluggish 0.3%mth (nominal) rise in sales, in line with consensus. There remains some hope that the tax offsets will belatedly come through. Australia is on track for its 22nd consecutive monthly trade surplus in Oct. Westpac looks for the surplus to slip from A$7.2bn to $6.3bn, with exports -2.8%mth, led by lower iron ore prices and volumes and a retracement in gold exports. Imports should ease back a little too (-0.8%), partially correcting a 2.5% jump in Sep. Markets will focus most on retail sales but consistently large trade surpluses should not be forgotten as a source of support for A$,” says Westpac. Following Australian data will be the US numbers of the weekly Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and Factory Orders. It’s worth mentioning that trade/political headlines will keep the driver’s seat all the time. Technical Analysis A sustained run-up beyond the recent high nearing 0.6865 could escalate the pair’s rise to 0.6900 and 0.6920/30 area including 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and October high. On the downside, sellers look for entry below 100-day EMA level near 0.6840 to revisit 0.6800 round-figure.  

On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading in a downtrend below the 200-day simple moving average (DMA). However, this week, the market had a sharp reversal up abo

EUR/USD is consolidating the recent gains above the 1.1060 price level.The level to beat for bulls is the 1.1093 resistance.   EUR/USD daily chart   On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading in a downtrend below the 200-day simple moving average (DMA). However, this week, the market had a sharp reversal up above the 50 and 100 DMAs.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD is trading below the 1.1093 resistance while holding above the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart. If the spot can overcome this critical resistance on a daily basis, EUR/USD could continue its ascent towards 1.1139 and the 1.1180 level in the medium term, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.       EUR/USD 30-minute chart   The euro continues the sideways consolidation theme above the 200 SMA. Support can be seen at the 1.1060, 1.1040 and 1.1013 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  
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