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AUD/JPY traded flat in thin Monday markets and is heading into Tuesday testing just beneath the 0.7920. Monday saw the US markets taking a break to o

AUD/JPY sedate in thin markets. RBA Meeting Minutes sail by largely unnoticed. AUD/JPY traded flat in thin Monday markets and is heading into Tuesday testing just beneath the 0.7920. Monday saw the US markets taking a break to observe President's Day, and the Asia session will continue to remain subdued with Chinese institutions dark for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Year. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped their Meeting Minutes today, but little surprises were to be found as all of the information has already been processed and priced in by market participants, with the RBA mostly reiterating what has already been said in recent weeks, with inflation growth expected to remain gradual, and wage growth subdued amid tighter lending and mortgage restrictions and high levels of household debt. The RBA noted that an increasing Aussie would hamper growth potential within Australia's economy, and with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rhetoric falling along the same lines, AUD/JPY can expect a battle of wills going forward as both countries' central banks vie to achieve low exchange rates.AUD/JPY TechnicalsThe Aussie rebounded from the 200-day SMA recently, and is currently trading just above the 34 EMA, though any gains in the pair are likely to come from markets reacting to BoJ rhetoric talking down the Yen, as the Aussie has struggled to develop real forward momentum amidst middling economic growth. H4 charts show the pair trading into support at 0.7898, and if this level fails to hold 0.7871 will be the next support, while a bullish continuation from here will see resistance at 0.7951 and 0.7983.

While the RBA minutes were not giving us anything new, as expected, the AUD/USD remains sideways within a range of 0.7900 and 0.7930 established overn

AUD/USD: quiet in low volume FX with China out.AUD/USD unchanged on 'same-same' RBA minutes.While the RBA minutes were not giving us anything new, as expected, the AUD/USD remains sideways within a range of 0.7900 and 0.7930 established overnight. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7916, up 0.08% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7922 and low at 0.7905. The RBA minutes were a complete repeat of the same rhetoric and overcharge, in some cases, that we have heard and read many times over from recent announcements from the Central Bank. RBA minutes: wage growth remained subdued The Aussie was unchanged while markets do not expect any change from the RBA in the foreseeable future and with low volumes with China being out, on the back of a dull day with the US and Canada out, we are in for a quiet day ahead. AUD/USD levelsValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that technically, the pair bounced again on an approach to the 0.7890 level, a major Fibonacci support: "The level stands for the 38.2% retracement of the December/January rally, keeping the downside limited as long as the pair remains above it. The lack of volatility has left the intraday picture neutral, as the pair is below a bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators hover around their mid-lines with limited directional strength."

Minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia board was released, and as widely expected, a non-market event considering how

Minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia board was released, and as widely expected, a non-market event considering how much has already been said from various officials over the last couple of week's and since the previous meeting.Key statements as follows:Low rates helping reduce unemployment, lift inflation. Further progress on inflation likely to be only gradual. RBA repeats rising a$ would impede pick up in economic growth, inflation. A$ TWI still within narrow range of past couple of years. Underlying inflation is seen rising gradually to 2.25 pct by mid-2020. Strong price competition in the retail sector expected to last for few years yet. Wage growth remained subdued despite strong employment, recent deals to weigh on. Pick up in household incomes needed to support consumption, risks to the downside. Tighter mortgage lending rules had helped contain housing risks. High household debt levels still warranted careful attention. Housing market conditions had generally eased, especially in Sydney. Global growth could continue to surprise on the upside given synchronised upturn. Global financial conditions accommodative despite recent volatility in equity markets.

Japan's Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Finance Minister Taro Aso have been hitting the wires today, providing their outlook on the Japanese ec

Japan's Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Finance Minister Taro Aso have been hitting the wires today, providing their outlook on the Japanese economy.Key Highlights:Motegi: Japan will soon be out of deflation situation for good Motegi: Hopes the re-appointed BoJ Governor Kuroda and new Deputy Governors continue doing their best at the central bank Aso: Japan has 'more or less' escaped economic depression Aso: Expects BoJ to continue working with government to achieve 2% growth target Aso: Achieving 2% growth will prove Japan has escaped stagnating deflationary trap

EUR/JPY is trading upwards to kick off the Tokyo trading session, testing testerday's high of 132.37 as of writing. The pair experienced a sedate Mon

EUR/JPY relatively flat on thin Monday markets. German PPI, EU Sentiment on the docket today. EUR/JPY is trading upwards to kick off the Tokyo trading session, testing testerday's high of 132.37 as of writing. The pair experienced a sedate Monday, with Chinese institutions closed for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Year, and the US also dark to observe President's Day. EUR/JPY may have found a floor from 131.76, as the encroaching Yen begins to backoff following Friday's threats from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that they are "watching FX markets closely", and uttered a willingness to intervene if things get much worse, though they see no need to do so now. The thinly-veiled threat aimed at Yen buyers seemed to turn the trick, with JPY backing off from recent highs. Europe will see a slew of mid-tier economic data drop today, most notably PPI numbers for Germany at 07:00 GMT, and ZEW Economic Sentiment results for both Germany and the broad Eurozone at 10:00. With the European Central Bank on track to begin lifting interest rates in the near future, positive figures could give Euro bulls the push they need to resume bidding up EUR/JPY and keep the long-term bull trend intact.EUR/JPY TechnicalsThe pair has moved lower for two straight weeks from a two and a half-year high of 137.50, and although a floor may have been found here, price is still getting very close to the 200-day SMA currently sitting at 130.97. H4 charts show strong support building at 131.80, and if the Yen continues to ease off its high point, then EUR/JPY could begin challenging resistance stacked at 132.55, the 133.00 major handle, and 133.67.

USD/JPY has taken on the previous hourly resistance and did so just ahead of the Tokyo open with comments from Japanese officials beating the familiar

USD/JPY has taken on the previous hourly resistance and did so just ahead of the Tokyo open with comments from Japanese officials beating the familiar sound on the same 25 inflation drum. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 106.72, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 106.76 and low at 106.56. Forex today: dollar gets a lift in thin holiday trade Funda, political and European market recap: a quiet start with some political sound bites The move wasn't much, but relatively, considering how quiet the markets had been overnight with the US out celebrating President's Day and Canada observing  Family Day while China is out until Thursday, the move was the biggest we have seen since the round turn in the NY morning between 106.72 and 106.49. The current move was from 106.63 and travelled to 106.75 on the hourly stick. Comments came as follows: Japan Finance Minister Aso: achieving 2% inflation proves Japan has escaped deflation. Japan Finance Minister Aso: expect BoJ to continue working with govt to achieve 2 pct inflation target. JapanFinance Minister Motegi: Japan soon to exit deflationary situation.USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the short-term picture is neutral for the pair, with the risk still skewed to the downside: "In the 4 hours chart, it remains well below bearish moving averages, while the Momentum indicator heads modestly higher around its 100 level, but the RSI keeps consolidating within negative territory, currently around 44."  

Analysts at ANZ explained that the Kiwi lost a little ground overnight as topside resistance held firms.  Key Quotes: "Locally, the dairy auction to

Analysts at ANZ explained that the Kiwi lost a little ground overnight as topside resistance held firms. Key Quotes:"Locally, the dairy auction tonight shouldn’t move things around much with a relatively benign result (small decline?) expected. Offshore USD forces remain very much in the driving seat.  Support 0.7180 Resistance 0.7420"

AUD/USD traded flat for Monday, currently heading to Tuesday's overnight session testing just above 0.7910. The Aussie saw thin markets on Monday, wi

Aussie flat but holding ground against USD. Weak points in Aussie economy plaguing RBA. RBA meeting minutes at 00:30 GMT. AUD/USD traded flat for Monday, currently heading to Tuesday's overnight session testing just above 0.7910. The Aussie saw thin markets on Monday, with China and the US both on holidays, and with China taking the first half of the week off for Chinese New Year, volatility can be expected to remain subdued in Asia trading. AUD/USD is recovering coming off a US Dollar correction that has seen the pair slide from an almost three-year high; the Aussie has recovered, yet still remains exposed to US Dollar recoveries. Middling economic growth and mixed data for Australia has left the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hogtied for future proojections of rate increases. While central banks around the globe prepare to start winding down their easy monetary programs, the RBA is trapped in wait-and-see mode, hoping to see more stable, pronounced growth figures in the future. Most analysts widely anticipate RBA rates to remain on hold until well into 2019 or 2020. Also weighing down the Aussie are internel stress points for household spending and saving, outlined by the RBA's Michele Bullock: "The historically high levels of mortgage debt in Australia raises questions about the resilience of household balance sheets to a change in circumstances and the ability of the financial system to absorb a widespread increase in household financial stress." More of the same wait-and-see rhetoric can be expected from the RBA when they drop their Meeting Minutes at 00:30 GMT today, but Wage Growth Index figures on Wednesday at 00:30 could give some insight into how the Australian economy can be expected to perform going forward.AUD/USD TechnicalsAs noted by FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik in her AUD/USD analysis, "the pair bounced again on an approach to the 0.7890 level, a major Fibonacci support, as the level stands for the 38.2% retracement of the December/January rally, keeping the downside limited as long as the pair remains above it. The lack of volatility has left the intraday picture neutral, as the pair is below a bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators hover around their mid-lines with limited directional strength. Support levels: 0.7890 0.7850 0.7810 Resistance levels: 0.7930 0.7965 0.8000 

Analysts at Natixis Economic Research asked the question "what developments seem to cause a downward correction in equity markets?' and concluded the

Analysts at Natixis Economic Research asked the question "what developments seem to cause a downward correction in equity markets?' and concluded the following:Key Quotes:"Downward corrections in equity markets in the United States and the eurozone are always linked to (are slightly preceded in time by):  Rising interest rates;  Declining growth prospects;   Heightened risk perception."

Michele Bullock who is the Assistant Governor Financial System is currently speaking at the Responsible Lending and Borrowing Summit in Sydney. RBA

Michele Bullock who is the Assistant Governor Financial System is currently speaking at the Responsible Lending and Borrowing Summit in Sydney. RBA's Bullock: Banking system is strong and well capitalised, supported by prudent lending standards. RBA's Bullock: Mortgage stress still low in Australia. RBA's Bullock: The historically high levels of mortgage debt in Australia raises questions about the resilience of household balance sheets to a change in circumstances and the ability of the financial system to absorb a widespread increase in household financial stress.  RBA's Bullock: The information we have suggests that, while there are some pockets of financial stress, the overall level of stress among mortgaged households remains relatively low". RBA's Bullock: Bullock notes a large proportion of interest-only loans are due to expire between 2018 and 2022 Among such borrowers, she said, there may be some who "do not meet current lending standards for extending their interest-only repayments but would find the step-up to principal and interest repayments difficult to manage." 

USD/JPY finished Monday higher for a second day in a row, trading near 106.60 heading into the Tuesday overnight session. The Yen has gained aggressi

USD/JPY climbing back up on USD rebound. BoJ ready to intervene if Yen continues to appreciate. USD/JPY finished Monday higher for a second day in a row, trading near 106.60 heading into the Tuesday overnight session. The Yen has gained aggressively lately, closing higher against the US Dollar for five of the last six trading weeks, although the pair may have put in a temporary bottom at 105.55.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has invested a lot of time trying to sooth-talk the strengthening Yen, and last Friday witnessed the emergence of interventionist rhetoric from the BoJ, with Japan's central bank stating that they are watching FX markets closely, and expressed a willingness to intervene if the Yen continues to appreciate. The walkback in the Yen coincides neatly with a brief resurgence in the USD this week, with the US Dollar climbing against its major peers in the last two days, though that flame may wink out quickly, as risk aversion is still in play for equities and bond markets, and faith in the US Dollar has continued to be rattled and show weak points as a result.USD/JPY TechnicalsAs FXStreet's Valeria Bednarik noted, regarding the USD/JPY technical outlook: "The short-term picture is neutral for the pair, with the risk still skewed to the downside, as in the 4 hours chart, it remains well below bearish moving averages, while the Momentum indicator heads modestly higher around its 100 level, but the RSI keeps consolidating within negative territory, currently around 44." Support levels: 106.15 105.70 105.40 Resistance levels: 106.85 107.20 107.60

Analysts at ANZ explained that there is marked disagreement currently about where the USD is headed.  Key Quotes: "Since it’s the ‘big half’ of the

Analysts at ANZ explained that there is marked disagreement currently about where the USD is headed. Key Quotes:"Since it’s the ‘big half’ of the NZD/USD equation, it matters for New Zealand. Those arguing the USD will weaken point to the US ‘twin deficits’ – the fiscal deficit is large and will get bigger as tax cuts coincide with an infrastructure spend-up, while the current account deficit is generally expected to grow as a stretched economy meets demand through higher imports.  In addition, the US economic data has started to look a bit softer – particularly for retail and trade. On the other hand those arguing the USD will strengthen point to the Fed’s plans to continue steadily hiking interest rates this year – the resulting yield differentials would traditionally see yield-seeking cash enter the country, pushing up the currency.  But that traditional relationship may be tested, some argue, by the fact that – viewing Treasuries as an asset like any other for a moment – their price is currently very high, and the supply of them is set to lift (fiscal deficits) at the same time that demand is looking weaker for various reasons, including the Fed’s tapering of QE.  Even given price falls (yield increases), demand may be muted if there is a broad expectation that prices will fall further (yields rise further) from here. Add to all that the fact that if global risk appetites were to deteriorate sharply the USD would become a safe haven, and you have a case study for why exchange rates are pretty much unforecastable."

Forex today was a holiday in the US session, following China's celebrations of the Lunar New Year, (mainland China closed until Thursday). Many trader

Forex today was a holiday in the US session, following China's celebrations of the Lunar New Year, (mainland China closed until Thursday). Many traders in Canada would have been absent also while observing Canada's Family Day. However, while markets were closed, it did not stop the DXY from moving within a range of between 88.955 - 89.442, closing  +0.13% on the day at 89.21. Also, while the US Treasury market was closed, the futures were still trading. The implied 10yr yield was rising slightly from 2.88% to 2.90% and, in a Bloomberg calculation,  Fed fund futures yields are pricing another rate hike on 21 March with a total of four hikes by end-2019, (somewhat less hawkish than where the markets had recently been basing - four hikes by the end of 2018). Stil, the dollar has been in recovery from 88.59 recent lows, being a critical support area. From a fundamental perspective, there was little to go on since some second-tier European data overnight. In the early part of the US session, and After Ireland's central bank chief Philip Lane pulled out of the race, we had the ascension of Spain's Economic Minister Luis De Guindos who has been selected in as the next ECB VP nominee and to take over from Portugal's Vitor Constancio, leaving in May this year after 8 years of service. Also, Latvia's central bank gov. Ilmars Rimsevics, how had been detained and questioned on corruption charges was released after denying the charges.  BoE's Carney made a speech at 18.45 GMT today at Regents Univerity under the title, "Leadership and Values". However, there was nothing related to monetary policy nor any market reaction. He spoke a little about Bitcoin saying that it has failed as a store of value and that was about it in terms of comments related in any way to the markets.  In terms of other currencies, EUR/USD ended the day flat at 1.2410 after an initial test of 1.2369. GBP/USD followed suit in the sike in the greenback, dropping to 1.3959. However, bulls were committed below the 1.40 handle and the price corrected back to the figure, albeit some margin from the highs of the day at 1.4050. For the cross ears were left to the ground for any political sound bites from various meetings happing across Europe that moved over into the US session with aforementioned movements around the ECB and in terms of Brexit, things were quiet today EUR/GBP was flat trading around 0.8858 having posted a daily high at 0.8871 and low at 0.8840.  USD/JPY was pushing a little higher and away from the recent lows below the 106 handle that were scored last week down at 105.54 - the lowest levels since November 2016 and opening eyes towards a break below 105 and to pre-Trump election territory on the 101 handle.  As for the antipodeans, AUD/USD was sideways within a range of 0.7900 and 0.7930 while the Kiwi NZD/USD slipped from 0.7400 to 0.7354. Key events from US shift:Funda, political and European market recap: a quiet start with some political sound bitesKey events ahead:Analysts at Westpac offerd the key event risks ahead:"The minutes from the RBA’s 6 Feb meeting are released at 11:30am Syd/Mel. There should be little or no market reaction given that since the meeting, we have seen the lengthy quarterly statement, heard speeches and even semi-annual testimony by Governor Lowe. Hong Kong markets reopen today but mainland China and Taiwan are still closed for lunar new year. The GDT dairy auction in London trade tonight is priced by futures to result in a 1%-2% rise in whole milk powder prices. Germany’s federal election may have been in October 2017 but the government remains in caretaker mode until a coalition is formalized. The leaders of the centre-right Christian Democrats and centre-left Social Democrats have agreed to resume their “grand” coalition but the SDP members need to provide their approval. They start voting today. The February ZEW survey of German investor sentiment is expected to remain very bullish, though maybe just short of January’s record high. US markets reopen from their long weekend but there is nothing of note on the schedule."