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جمعه، 30 ژوئیه، 2021

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count down to 385 from previous 387

Previewing next week's key macroeconomic data releases from the US, TD Securities analysts said they expect Nonfarm Payrolls to surge again in July, "

Previewing next week's key macroeconomic data releases from the US, TD Securities analysts said they expect Nonfarm Payrolls to surge again in July, "with the pace up a bit from the +850k in June." Key quotes "Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from favorable seasonal adjustments. We forecast another 0.3% m/m rise in average hourly earnings. The 12-month change is likely to rise again to 3.8% from 3.6% in June." "Mixed but slightly positive signals from regional data suggest improvement relative to June for the ISM surveys. At around 60, the June readings were still consistent with strong growth, although both came off of recent highs (the 64.0 reading for services in May was an all-time high). The boosts to growth from "reopening" and fiscal stimulus have probably peaked."

The USD/CAD pair dropped to a daily low of 1.2420 in the early American session on Friday but managed to stage a decisive rebound. As of writing, the

USD/CAD gained traction in the American trading hours on Friday.Canadian economy contracted by 0.3% in May as expected.US annual Core PCE inflation edged higher to 3.5% in June. The USD/CAD pair dropped to a daily low of 1.2420 in the early American session on Friday but managed to stage a decisive rebound. As of writing, the pair was up 0.25% on the day at 1.2475 and was on track to snap a two-day losing streak. Despite the recent recovery, the pair looks to end the week in the negative territory. DXY reclaims 92.00 ahead of the weekend The renewed USD strength helped USD/CAD gain traction in the second half of the day. The data from the US showed on Friday that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, edged higher to 3.5% on a yearly basis in June. This reading, however, came in lower than the market expectation of 3.7% and failed to trigger a significant market reaction. Nevertheless, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's hawkish remarks and the poor performance of Wall Street's main indexes provided a boost to the USD. Bullard argued that the Fed should start tapering asset purchases this fall and noted that he expects to see the initial rate hike in the last quarter of 2022. The US Dollar Index, which dropped to a monthly low of 91.78, is currently rising 0.26% on a daily basis at 92.12. On the other hand, Statistics Canada announced that the Real Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.3% in May, as expected. In the meantime, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is rising 0.75% near $74 on Friday, limiting USD/CAD's upside ahead of the weekend. Technical levels to watch for  

Analysts at MUFG Bank, see a trade idea in shorting the EUR/GBP cross with a target at 0.8350 and a stop-loss at 0.8670. They point out the positive e

Analysts at MUFG Bank, see a trade idea in shorting the EUR/GBP cross with a target at 0.8350 and a stop-loss at 0.8670. They point out the positive evolution of COVID-19 cases reinforces the bullish outlook for the pound.  Key Quotes: “We have been encouraged by recent positive COVID data from the UK suggesting that the risk of further pandemic related disruption to the UK economic recovery has diminished. The vaccine roll out and number of people who have already caught COVID should help dampen the severity of the current and any future COVID waves allowing the government to refrain from re-imposing significant restrictions. A strengthening economic recovery and building upside risks to their inflation target should keep pressure on the BoE to tighten exceptionally loose policy.” “The policy divergence between the BoE and ECB should continue to widen as the ECB has signalled strongly it does not plan to raise rates even as the euro-zone economy is recovering more strongly and inflation is set to rise above target.” “We expect GBP gains to accelerate against the EUR once the year to date low at 0.8472 is taken out.” “The main risks to the trade idea include: i) a more intensified period of risk off trading hitting the GBP, ii) BoE provides dovish policy surprise, and iii) UK COVID cases pick up sharply again in response to recent re-opening measures. If the BoE sets a much lower threshold for starting quantitative tightening would dampen future rate hikes expectations.”

The GBP/USD failed to hold to gains on Friday and tumbled to 1.3890, reaching the lowest levels since Wednesday. Despite the decline, cable is about t

Dollar gains momentum late on Friday and trims weekly losses.Cable heads for biggest weekly gain since May.Next week's key events: NFP and Bank of England meeting.The GBP/USD failed to hold to gains on Friday and tumbled to 1.3890, reaching the lowest levels since Wednesday. Despite the decline, cable is about to post the biggest weekly gain since early May, boosted by a weaker US dollar across the board. The greenback gained momentum late on Friday, into the London fix and trimmed weekly losses. The dollar rose even as US yields dropped. Economic data from the US did not surprise market participants. The relevant report was the PCE Core index that rose 0.4% in June, below the 0.6% of market consensus. GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3900/10, at the same level of the 20-week simple moving average. The failure to break above and hold could show signs of some exhaustion on the upside, favoring a correction. The 1.3730 area emerges again as a relevant support. A firm break above 1.4000 next week, should clear the way to more gains. From the Fed to BoE and NFP The US dollar did not benefit from FOMC events. From Wednesday until late on Friday, it fell across the board. Next week, the key report will be the Nonfarm Payroll report. “Payrolls probably surged again in July, with the pace up a bit from the +850k in June. Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from favorable seasonal adjustments. We forecast another 0.3% m/m rise in average hourly earnings. The 12-month change is likely to rise again to 3.8% from 3.6% in June”, wrote analysts at TD Securities. In the UK, attention continues to be on COVID-19 developments. If cases accelerate, it could hurt market optimism on the economic recovery. Next week, the Bank of England will meet. No change in monetary policy is expected.  “We have become more confident in our bullish GBP outlook. While there is a risk that the BoE could disappoint hawkish expectations next week, any GBP weakness should be temporary”, mentioned MUFG Bank analysts. Technical levels  

The real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States is expected to grow by 6.1% in the third quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlan

The real gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States is expected to grow by 6.1% in the third quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's latest GDPNow report showed on Friday. "The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 29 was 6.5%, 0.1 percentage point above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 28," Atlanta Fed noted in its publication. Market reaction Market participants showed no reaction to this report and the US Dollar Index was last seen gaining 0.25% on the day at 92.10.

The US economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in the third quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Nowcasting Report showed on Fri

The US economy is expected to grow by 4.2% in the third quarter of 2021, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Nowcasting Report showed on Friday. "News from this week’s data releases increased the nowcast for 2021:Q3 by 0.1 percentage point," the NY Fed noted in its publication. "Positive surprises from merchant wholesale inventory data drove the increase." Market reaction This report was largely ignored by market participants and the US Dollar Index was last seen rising 0.27% on a daily basis at 92.12.

Recent data showed the Eurozone economy performed above expectations during the second quarter. Analysts at Wells Fargo explained data the latest repo

Recent data showed the Eurozone economy performed above expectations during the second quarter. Analysts at Wells Fargo explained data the latest report showed the positive momentum continued at the beginning of the third quarter. Still, they expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its accommodative monetary policy and, indeed, ease policy further in December by announcing a further increase in its bond purchase program. Key Quotes:  “Eurozone Q2 GDP grew a stronger-than-expected 2.0% quarter-over-quarter, with particularly strong gains reported for Italy and Spain. July inflation remained contained overall, as the headline CPI quickened only slightly to 2.2% year-over-year.” “The ECB will certainly welcome the improvement in growth, while the moderate inflation trends means there is no need for the central bank to move to less accommodative monetary policy any time soon. That is reinforced by recent changes by the ECB to its policy strategy that included a shift to a symmetric 2% inflation target, and the dovish policy guidance from the ECB following its July monetary policy meeting. Indeed, given the latest COVID developments have added some element of near-term uncertainty, we now expect the ECB to refrain from tapering its bond purchases in September, and instead signal that Q4 buying for the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) will continue to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the early months of this year.”
“If recent COVID developments do eventually have some influence on confidence and activity, and more importantly should underlying inflation trends fail to move meaningfully higher, we expect the ECB to announce a further increase in bond purchases. Our base case for the European Central Bank's December monetary policy announcement is for the central bank to announce a further €500 billion increase in PEPP purchases, taking the size of that program to €2.350 trillion, with purchases under the PEPP program to continue until at least September 2022.”

Data released on Friday showed the Canadian economy contracted further in May. Analysts at CIBC point out containment measures necessary to curb the t

Data released on Friday showed the Canadian economy contracted further in May. Analysts at CIBC point out containment measures necessary to curb the third wave of COVID-19 took a further toll on the economy in May, but the relaxation of those restrictions saw activity rebound sharply in June. Key Quotes:  “With virus cases generally low across the country, the economy has some open road to recover even more ground this summer. However, the Bank of Canada won't be in any rush to pull forward the expected timing of rate hikes with challenges remaining, most notably in the form of variants of the virus which are already slowing the healing process in other developed economies.” “The Canadian economy already began that process with a comeback in June coinciding with falling new Covid cases and the relaxation of restrictions. The flash estimate, which pointed to 0.7% growth, was roughly in line with what we had penciled in and puts the quarterly growth rate bang on our forecast of 2.5% annualized, a touch hotter than the Bank of Canada's 2.0% forecast.” “A solid handoff to the third quarter from the strong rebound in June leaves the economy in a position to post a lofty growth rate during the period, so long as momentum doesn’t tail off too much in the coming months. While we do see growth slowing later in the year, the rest of the summer should see the economy make solid progress, given the low numbers of new infections and the ongoing reduction of public health measures.”

The AUD/USD broke under 0.7365 during the American session and fell to 0.7343, reaching a fresh two-day low. The key driver has been a strong US dolla

US dollar rises across the board into the London fix.Greenback trims weekly losses late on Friday.AUD/USD back to negative for the week, drops toward 0.7350.The AUD/USD broke under 0.7365 during the American session and fell to 0.7343, reaching a fresh two-day low. The key driver has been a strong US dollar across the board. The greenback gained momentum into the London fix. The DXY eared losses and is up by 0.30% at 92.15, even as US yields move further to the downside. The 10-year yield stands at 1.22%, about to test the weekly low. The key economic report of the US was the core PCE deflator, considered a critical inflation number for the Federal Reserve. It rose 0.4% in June, against expectations of a 0.6% increase. From the Fed to the RBA After the Fed, now the focus turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that next week will have its monetary policy meeting. “We think policymakers in Sydney (a city that is about to spend the whole month of August in lockdown) will not make any amendment to the current policy stance after the adjustments announced in early July. The jump in inflation to 3.8% in 2Q should be dismissed as transitory, and the Bank will likely wait for more indications from the labour market before reacting on the policy side”, wrote analysts at ING. They add that the recent spread of the Delta Variant is likely another reason “why the RBA should revert from sounding more hawkish or upbeat on the recovery at this meeting.” The Aussie is about to end the week as the worst performer across the G10 space, hit by monetary policy divergence. AUD/USD failed to hold to gains and on Friday to remain above 0.7400; it is on its way to the fifth consecutive negative weekly result. AUD/NZD heads for the lowest weekly close since November of last year. Technical levels  

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that he expects the initial rate increase in the fourth quarter of 2022 but argued that the Fed s

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that he expects the initial rate increase in the fourth quarter of 2022 but argued that the Fed should be in a position to move sooner if needed, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Inflation expectations generally consistent with Fed's new flexible average inflation targeting framework." "Risky to wait too long to taper, Fed could be left behind curve given inflation risk, ongoing job growth." "Risk is Fed would have to really scramble in raising rates if inflation breaks out and that tends to end in recession." "Preference would be to decide on taper plan at September Fed meeting, start tapering after that." "Plenty of risk still from coronavirus but Fed policy is tilted too much to the dovish side." "Indifferent on tapering in larger increments each month versus taking more time, as long as purchases end Q1 2022." "Nervous over incipient housing bubble, Fed should not feed into that with ongoing asset purchases." Market reaction The US Dollar Index continues to edge higher in the American session and was last seen gaining 0.3% on the day at 92.15.

The personal income and spending report showed a larger than expected number, while the inflation indicator came in below market consensus. Analysts a

The personal income and spending report showed a larger than expected number, while the inflation indicator came in below market consensus. Analysts at Wells Fargo see a transition to discretionary spending clearly underway. They point out the days of stimulus checks and buying stuff are gone. Key Quotes:  “Personal income increased 0.1% in June and spending increased 1.0%; both numbers exceeded consensus expectations. Some of the fanfare of today's better-than-expected outturn was uncorked in yesterday's initial estimate for GDP growth.” “For the third consecutive month, every major category of services spending moved higher. We also reached a milestone on the road to recovery as June marked the first month that services spending finally crested above its pre-pandemic level; in fact services spending is half a percentage point higher today than it was before the pandemic.” “Last March and April, discretionary spending plummeted 54%, and has been clawing its way out on trend ever since. The transition to stronger spending here was evident in June as discretionary services rose 3.2% compared to a 0.5% gain in non-discretionary categories. That puts the peak-to-current figure at just 7.2% below their pre-pandemic level.” “Personal income growth would have been stronger if it were not for dwindling stimulus. While overall personal income only rose 0.1% in June, if excluding transfer payments, income rose a stronger 0.7% over the month.” “Still the overall trajectory of income growth will likely be flat to slightly down over the next four months or so. The confluence of factors from the expiration of all enhanced unemployment benefits in early September and PPP loans rolling out of proprietors income will more than offset upward momentum from employee compensation and the enhanced child tax credit being sent to many households. But, once stimulus rolls out of the income calculations, we expect income growth to settle on a more normal upward trajectory.”

Next week, the Bank of England (BoE) will have its monetary policy meeting. No change is expected. According to analysts from TD Securities, the outco

Next week, the Bank of England (BoE) will have its monetary policy meeting. No change is expected. According to analysts from TD Securities, the outcome should not offer a strong directional cue for the pound. They expect the currency to remain in familiar ranges.  Key Quotes:  “We look for the MPC to keep policy unchanged at this meeting, despite recent hawkish sentiment from two members. While wage and inflation dynamics remain strong, there are early signs of a slowdown in demand. The QE decision will likely not be unanimous.” “We do not expect the August MPC meeting to provide a strong directional cue for GBP, particularly as FX markets have been content to shrug off stronger policy signals elsewhere. GBP’s sensitivity to risk appetite is high and spot is close to near-term FV (fair value) on our dashboard. This should see GBP anchored to familiar ranges as summer trading conditions prevail.” “Duration remains vulnerable to the pace of BoE buybacks in the coming months. We prefer going into the meeting with a steepening bias for the front-end and curve.

The Eurozone registered a GDP growth of 2% during the second quarter after two quarters of contraction. The reopening of Eurozone economies since end

The Eurozone registered a GDP growth of 2% during the second quarter after two quarters of contraction. The reopening of Eurozone economies since end Q1/early Q2 has spurred economic activity, point out Rabobank analysts. They see the main risk to the short-term outlook steming from the highly contagious Delta variant. Key Quotes:  “The recovery in the services sector should be sustained in the coming quarters, on the back of rising vaccination rates and the accompanying gradual return to normal (58% of the EU population has had at least one shot and 48% is fully vaccinated). In addition, uninterrupted strong order books in the manufacturing sector, improving global trade and the Next Generation EU support the outlook. Furthermore, the ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for business loans in the Euro area is starting to be more driven by investment intentions again, rather than building liquidity buffers, after this was disrupted by the pandemic.” “The main risk to the short-term outlook stems from the highly contagious Delta variant which has been slowing the phasing out of lockdown measures and has already even caused governments to rollback relaxations and tighten international travel restrictions.” “Yet, so far the overall macro-impact of the Delta variant seems to be limited still in most countries.”

The Consumer Sentiment Index in the US declined to 81.2 (final) in July from 85.5 in June, the University of Michigan's latest Surveys of Consumers sh

Consumer confidence in the US weakened in July.US Dollar Index clings to modest daily gains near 92.00.The Consumer Sentiment Index in the US declined to 81.2 (final) in July from 85.5 in June, the University of Michigan's latest Surveys of Consumers showed on Friday. This reading missed the market expectation and the flash estimate of 80.8. Further details of the publication revealed that the Current Economic Conditions Index declined to 84.5 from 88.6 and the Consumer Expectations Index edged lower to 79 from 83.5. Finally, the 1-year Inflation Outlook jumped to 4.7% from 4.2%. Commenting on the data, "the largest monthly declines remained concentrated in the outlook for the national economy and complaints about high prices for homes, vehicles, and household durables, said Richard Curtin, Surveys of Consumers chief economist. "While most consumers still expect inflation to be transitory, there is growing evidence that an inflation storm is likely to develop on the not too distant horizon." Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on the USD's performance against its rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was up 0.12% on the day at 91.99.

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 81.2 above expectations (80.8) in July

United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index up to 73.4 in July from previous 66.1

EUR/USD came under some selling pressure soon after hitting fresh monthly peaks in levels north of 1.19 the figure on Friday. EUR/USD now looks to a t

EUR/USD fades the earlier move to levels past 1.1900.EMU flash Q2 GDP rose 2.0% QoQ, 13.7% YoY.US Core PCE came in short of estimates in June.EUR/USD came under some selling pressure soon after hitting fresh monthly peaks in levels north of 1.19 the figure on Friday. EUR/USD now looks to a test of 1.1975 EUR/USD now sees its upside momentum mitigated on the back of some mild recovery in the greenback. In fact, the pair corrects lower following the early move beyond 1.19 and after spot hit the overbought territory on the hourly chart (as per the RSI). Furthermore, EUR/USD remains on track to close the week in the positive ground following two consecutive weekly pullbacks. Positive results in the euro docket are also supportive of the upbeat momentum in the pair after preliminary GDP figures in the euro area now see the region expanding 2.0% QoQ during the April-June period and 13.7% from a year earlier. In Germany, the economy is now expected to expand 1.5% inter-quarter and 9.6% on an annualized basis. Regarding inflation in Euroland, flash data now see the headline CPI rising 2.2% vs. July 2020 and 0.7% when comes to the Core CPI. In the US, the inflation tracked by the PCE rose 4% YoY in June and 3.5% excluding food and energy costs. Additional data noted the Personal Spending expanded 1.0% MoM during last month and Personal Income rose 0.1% MoM. Later in the NA session, the final U-Mich print for the month of July will close the weely docket. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is down 0.05% at 1.1879 and a breakdown of 1.1751 (monthly low Jul.21) would target 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31) en route to 1.1602 (November 2020 low). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.1908 (weekly high Jul.30) followed by 1.1975 (weekly high Jun.25) and finally 1.2004 (200-day SMA).

Major equity indexes in the US opened lower on the last trading day of the week. The S&P 500 Index, which notched a new all-time high of 4,429, is cur

Wall Street's main indexes trade in the red on Friday.Defensive sectors trade in the positive territory after the opening bell.S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is down nearly 3%.Major equity indexes in the US opened lower on the last trading day of the week. The S&P 500 Index, which notched a new all-time high of 4,429, is currently down 0.5% at 4,396, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is losing 0.1% at 35,052 and the Nasdaq Composite is falling nearly 1% at 14,636. Earlier in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that Personal Spending increased by 1% in June while Personal Income rose by only 0.1%. Moreover, the Core PCE inflation edged higher to 3.5% on a yearly basis in June, compared to analysts' estimate of 3.7%. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the defensive Real Estate and Utilities indexes trade in the positive territory after the opening bell. On the other hand, the COnsumer Discretionary Index is down 2.8% as the biggest percentage decline in early trade.  S&P 500 chart (daily)

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that he feels the Federal Reserve should taper asset purchases this fall and go fairly rapidly, a

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that he feels the Federal Reserve should taper asset purchases this fall and go fairly rapidly, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Financial markets are well prepared for taper." "Fed should finish taper by the end of Q1-2022." "Ending taper in early 2022 would open the way for a rate increase that year if needed." Market reaction These remarks help the USD stay resilient against its rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was up 0.13% on the day at 92.00.

The GBP/USD pair retreated around 40 pips from daily tops and has now dropped to the lower end of its intraday trading range, around the 1.3940 region

GBP/SUD stalled its recent strong move up near the 61.8% Fibo. level resistance.The risk-off impulse benefitted the safe-haven USD and capped any further gains.A sustained break below the 1.3900 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook.The GBP/USD pair retreated around 40 pips from daily tops and has now dropped to the lower end of its intraday trading range, around the 1.3940 region. The risk-off impulse in the markets drove some haven flows towards the US dollar. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that failed to assist the GBP/USD pair to capitalize on its intraday positive move to the 1.3980-85 region, or over one-month tops. From a technical perspective, the recent strong rebound from the lowest level since February stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.4249-1.3572 downfall. That said, the formation of an ascending trend channel on hourly charts favours bullish traders. The positive outlook is reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in the overbought zone. Hence, any subsequent slide might be limited near the trend-channel support. However, a sustained break below might prompt some technical selling and accelerate the corrective pullback towards the 1.3900 mark. The latter coincides with the 50% Fibo. level, which if broken decisively will set the stage for further weakness. The GBP/USD pair might then extend the fall towards the 1.3860 horizontal support en-route the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.3830-25 region. Some follow-through selling below the 1.3800 mark will shift the near-term bias back in favour of bearish traders. On the flip side, the 1.3980-85 region (61.8% Fibo. level) might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. This is closely followed by the key 1.4000 psychological mark ahead of the top end of the mentioned trend-channel resistance, around the 1.4015 region. A convincing breakthrough will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and push the GBP/USD pair further towards the 1.4070-75 intermediate resistance. The momentum could further get extended and allow bulls to aim back to reclaim the 1.4100 round figure. GBP/USD 1-hour chart Technical levels to watch  

The NZD/USD pair is pushing lower in the early American session and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day at 0.6994. DXY tests 92.00 on Friday The mode

NZD/USD is edging slightly lower in the early American session.Core PCE inflation edged higher in June but came in lower than market expectation.US Dollar Index clings to modest gains near 92.00.The NZD/USD pair is pushing lower in the early American session and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day at 0.6994. DXY tests 92.00 on Friday The modest USD strength seems to be weighing on NZD/USD. The US Dollar Index is currently rising 0.12% on the day at 91.99.  The data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed on Friday that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 3.5% on a yearly basis in June from 3.4% in May. This print came in lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. Other data from the US revealed that Personal Income increased by 0.1% in the same period while Personal Spending expanded by 1%. Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the labour market could be fully recovered by next summer and added this would meet the condition for the Fed to start raising rates.  Later in the session, the University of Michigan will release the July Consumer Sentiment Index data. Earlier in the day, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index in New Zealand declined to 113.1 in July from 114.1 in June but this print was largely ignored by market participants.  Technical levels to watch for  

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that the second-quarter GDP was a bit lower than expected six or eight weeks ago but noted that

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that the second-quarter GDP was a bit lower than expected six or eight weeks ago but noted that he still sees a strong growth toward the end of the year, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Still expecting 7% full-year growth for US in 2021." "Seeing above-trend growth for quite some time in US." "Productivity seems much higher, on the cusp of that continuing as technology spreads." Market reaction The US Dollar Index edged slightly higher following these comments and was last seen rising 0.1% on the day at 91.97.

Chile Unemployment rate below expectations (10%) in June: Actual (9.5%)

Chile Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 3.5% to 6% in June

The USD/CAD pair held steady near the 1.2430-35 region, or over two-week lows and had a rather muted reaction to the US/Canadian macro data. The pair

USD/CAD failed to preserve its modest intraday gains to the 1.2470-75 region.Sustained USD selling bias was seen as a key factor that acted as a headwind.Mixed US macro data, Canadian GDP failed to provide any meaningful impetus.The USD/CAD pair held steady near the 1.2430-35 region, or over two-week lows and had a rather muted reaction to the US/Canadian macro data. The pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday positive move, instead met with some fresh supply near the 1.2470-75 area amid the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Bulls seemed rather unimpressed by a softer tone around crude oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked loonie. The USD remained on the defensive near one-month lows amid firming expectations that the Fed would retain its ultra-lose monetary policy stance for a longer period. It is worth recalling that the Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. On the economic data front, the US Core PCE Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – edged higher to 3.5% YoY in June, missing expectations for a reading of 3.7%. This, to a larger extent, offset an unexpected rise in the Personal Income and better-than-expected Spending data. Meanwhile, the Canadian monthly GDP report showed that the economic activity contracted 0.3% MoM in May. This, along with a modest pullback in crude oil prices, held traders from placing any aggressive bullish bets around the Canadian dollar and helped limit deeper losses for the USD/CAD pair. Friday's US economic docket also features the release of Chicago PMI and revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, though is unlikely to provide any meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair. That said, the USD/oil price dynamics might still contribute to producing some trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Compensation costs for civilian workers, the Employment Cost Index, increased 0.7% in the second quarter, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor

Employment Cost Index in US rose less than expected in Q2.US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate below 92.00.  Compensation costs for civilian workers, the Employment Cost Index, increased 0.7% in the second quarter, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed on Friday. This reading came in lower than the market expectation of 0.9%. "Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 2.9% for the 12-month period ending in June 2021 and increased 2.7% in June 2020," the publication further read. "Wages and salaries increased 3.2% for the 12-month period ending in June 2021." Market reaction This report doesn't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the USD's performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was posting small daily gains at 91.93.

Canada's Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at a monthly rate of 0.3% in May, the data published by Statistics Canada showed on Friday. This

Canadian economy continued to contract at a modest pave in May.USD/CAD stays in the negative territory below 1.2450.Canada's Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted at a monthly rate of 0.3% in May, the data published by Statistics Canada showed on Friday. This print followed April's decline of 0.5% and came in line with the market expectation.  "Preliminary information indicates an approximate 0.7% increase in real GDP for June," the publication further read. "Total economic activity was approximately 2% below February 2020's pre-pandemic level." Market reaction The USD/CAD pair largely ignored this report and was last seen losing 0.08% on a daily basis at 1.2433.

Brazil Nominal Budget Balance down to -75.6B in June from previous -37.4B

Brazil Primary Budget Surplus registered at -65.5B, below expectations (-60B) in June

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY): 4% (June) vs 3.9%

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.4% to 0.5% in June

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (3.7%) in June: Actual (3.5%)

United States Personal Income (MoM) came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in June

Inflation in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, stayed unchanged at 0.5% in June, the US Bureau of Econom

Inflation in the US, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, stayed unchanged at 0.5% in June, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. On a yearly basis, the PCE Price Index remained steady at 4%.  More importantly, the annual Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, edged higher to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, coming in lower than the market expectation of 3.7%. Further details of the publication revealed that the Personal Income increased by 0.1% in the same period while Personal Spending expanded by 1%, compared to analysts' estimate of 0.7%. Market reaction The initial market reaction to this report was largely muted and the US Dollar Index was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day at 91.89.

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.6%) in June

United States Employment Cost Index came in at 0.7%, below expectations (0.9%) in 2Q

United States Personal Spending registered at 1% above expectations (0.7%) in June

Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) dipped from previous 2.7% to 0% in June

Canada Raw Material Price Index up to 3.9% in June from previous 3.2%

Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) in line with expectations (-0.3%) in May

The USD/CHF pair has managed to reverse an early European session dip to fresh six-week lows and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, aroun

USD/CHF prolonged its recent decline and dropped to the lowest level since June 16.Reviving safe-haven demand benefitted the CHF and exerted pressure amid softer USD.Oversold conditions on hourly charts helped limit further losses ahead of the US data.The USD/CHF pair has managed to reverse an early European session dip to fresh six-week lows and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, around the 0.9055-60 region. The pair prolonged this week's rejection slide from the 0.9200 round-figure mark and witnessed some selling during the first half of the trading action on Friday. Worries that the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus could derail the global economic recovery continued weighing on investors' sentiment. This, in turn, benefitted the safe-haven Swiss franc and exerted some downward pressure on the USD/CHF pair. Meanwhile, the risk-off impulse in the markets triggered a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. Against the backdrop of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Wednesday, sliding US bond yields kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive. This further contributed to the USD/CHF pair's decline to the lowest level since June 16. That said, oversold conditions on intraday charts helped limit any further losses. The USD/CHF pair managed to find some support near the 0.9040-35 region, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive. Given the overnight sustained weakness below the very important 200-day SMA, the bias remains tilted in favour of bearish traders. Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt beyond the mentioned support breakpoint might be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of the Core PCE Price Index, along with Chicago PMI and revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Apart from this, the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair. Traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the major. Technical levels to watch  

South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) came in at 57.68B, above expectations (52B) in June

India Infrastructure Output (YoY) dipped from previous 16.8% to 8.9% in June

Brazil Unemployment Rate: 14.6% (May) vs previous 14.7%

Following Thursday's decline, the USD/JPY pair dropped to a fresh 10-day low of 109.36 on Friday but managed to stage a modest recovery. As of writing

USD/JPY edges slightly higher following Thursday's sharp decline.US Dollar Index consolidates weekly losses, stays below 92.00.Investors await inflation and consumer sentiment data from US.Following Thursday's decline, the USD/JPY pair dropped to a fresh 10-day low of 109.36 on Friday but managed to stage a modest recovery. As of writing, the pair was up 0.18% on the day at 109.66. DXY inches higher on Friday Although the recovery witnessed in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield helped the pair limit its losses on Thursday, the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the greenback caused USD/JPY to edge lower. The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed the fourth straight day in the negative territory and lost 0.4%.  Nevertheless, the DYX is posting small daily gains at 91.94 on Friday and allowing USD/JPY to stay green. Later in the session, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for June. Meanwhile, S&P Futures and Nasdaq Futures are down 0.65% and 1%, respectively, suggesting that safe-haven flows could dominate the markets and restrict USD/JPY's movements. On the other hand, the data from Japan showed on Friday that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 2.9% in June from 3% in May while Industrial Production expanded by 6.2%, compared to the market expectation of 5%. Additionally, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide warned on Friday that the coronavirus is spreading at an unprecedented speed in Japan. "We are worried that the virus will continue to spread further," Suga added and these remarks could be putting additional weight on the JPY's shoulders. Technical levels to watch for  

EUR/USD finally surpasses the 1.1900 hurdle and clinches new highs at the end of the week. The continuation of the upside could now extend to the late

EUR/USD records new tops beyond 1.1900 on Friday.Further upside is seen re-testing peaks around 1.1975.EUR/USD finally surpasses the 1.1900 hurdle and clinches new highs at the end of the week. The continuation of the upside could now extend to the late June peaks around 1.1975 ahead of the psychological 1.2000 barrier, where also sits the critical 200-day SMA. Further out, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is seen on the negative side while below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.2004. EUR/USD daily chart  

India Bank Loan Growth: 6.5% (July 16) vs 6.1%

India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $612.73B to $611.15B in July 23

DXY remains under pressure, although sellers remain unable to drag the index further south of the 91.80 region so far. Further decline still appears o

DXY gives away further ground below the 92.00 yardstick.Further selling could drag the index to the mid-91.00s.DXY remains under pressure, although sellers remain unable to drag the index further south of the 91.80 region so far. Further decline still appears on the cards in the current context, however, with the next support coming in at the 91.50 region (June 23 low). This contention zone is reinforced by the proximity of the 100- and 50-day SMAs. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, the positive stance on the dollar is expected to remain unchanged as long as the index trades above the 200-day SMA, today at 91.33. DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY resumes the upside and leaves behind Thursday’s small losses amidst inconclusive price action. If the buying pressure gathers extra steam, the

EUR/JPY keeps business near recent tops.Further upside should meet a minor support at 130.67.EUR/JPY resumes the upside and leaves behind Thursday’s small losses amidst inconclusive price action. If the buying pressure gathers extra steam, then there is an interim hurdle at the Fibo level at 130.67. A surpass of this level should put the weekly top at 131.08 back on the radar (July 13). Above this area, the selling pressure is expected to subside. In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 128.59, the outlook for EUR/JPY is expected to remain constructive. EUR/JPY daily chart  

After posting modest daily gains on Thursday, the AUD/USD pair stayed relatively quiet around 0.7400 during the Asian trading hours on Friday but came

AUD/USD struggles to stay above 0.7400 on Friday.US Dollar Index moves sideways below 92.00 during the European session.Focus shifts to US PCE inflation data for June.After posting modest daily gains on Thursday, the AUD/USD pair stayed relatively quiet around 0.7400 during the Asian trading hours on Friday but came under modest bearish pressure ahead of the American session. As of writing, the pair was down 0.35% on the day at 0.7370. Market mood sours ahead of US inflation data The negative shift witnessed in market sentiment seems to be making it difficult for the AUD to stay resilient against its rivals while helping the US Dollar Index gains traction. Reflecting the risk-averse market environment, S&P Futures and Nasdaq Futures are down 0.6% and 1%, respectively, suggesting Wall Street's main indexes could open deep in the negative territory. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, which fell to a monthly low of 91.78 on Friday, is little changed on the day at 91.85. Later in the session, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, data for June. Investors expect the Core PCE Price Index to rise to 3.7% on a yearly basis from 3.4% in May. On the other hand, the data from Australia revealed that the Private Sector Credit rose by 0.9% in June, surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%. Additionally, the annual Producer Price Index jumped to 2.2% in the second quarter from 0.2%. Technical levels to watch for  

India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR: 2742.45B (June) vs 1231.74B

Gold consolidated the overnight strong gains back closer to monthly tops and oscillated in a narrow trading band, around the $1,825-30 region through

Gold was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the first half of the European session.A combination of factors extended some support, though the lack of buying warrants caution.Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD set to test $1850 amid bullish technical setup, US PCE eyedGold consolidated the overnight strong gains back closer to monthly tops and oscillated in a narrow trading band, around the $1,825-30 region through the first half of the European session. Worries about the potential economic fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus continued weighing on investors' sentiment. This turned out to be one of the key factors that continued underpinning the safe-haven XAU/USD. Meanwhile, the risk-off impulse in the markets triggered a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. This comes on the back of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Wednesday and further acted as a tailwind for the non-yielding gold. Apart from this, the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US dollar extended some additional support to the dollar-denominated commodity, though the lack of any follow-through buying warrants caution for bulls. Nevertheless, gold remains on track to record its biggest weekly gains since May 21 and seems poised to appreciate further amid signs that the Fed will stick to its ultra-lose policy stance for a longer period. The US central bank on Wednesday acknowledged that the economy has made progress towards the maximum employment and price stability goals. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a dovish turn at the post-meeting press conference. Powell emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. He was also cautious about tapering and said that policymakers discussed some details but it will take a few more meetings to get into it. The market speculations were further reinforced by Thursday's disappointing US GDP report, which showed that the world's largest economy expanded by 6.5% annualized pace in the second quarter as against the 8.5% growth anticipated. Technical outlook Looking at the technical picture, acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA favours bullish traders. That said, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the monthly swing highs, around the $1,834 region, before positioning for any further upside. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $1,845-46 area, above which gold is likely to accelerate the momentum towards the $$1,866 area. Some follow-through buying should allow bulls to eventually aim to reclaim the $1,900 round-figure mark. On the flip side, the 200-day SMA, currently around the $1,821 region, might now protect the immediate downside. This is followed by support near the $1,810 horizontal level, below which gold could slide back to the $1,800 mark. Some follow-through selling below the key $1,790 support might prompt some aggressive technical selling. The next relevant support is pegged near the $1,765-60 region before the XAU/USD eventually drops to challenge monthly swing lows, around the $1,750 region.

The single currency keeps pushing higher and encourages EUR/USD to briefly surpass the 1.1900 mark for the first time since late June. EUR/USD up on U

EUR/USD extends the recovery just past the 1.19 level.EMU flash CPI rose 2.2%, Core CPI gained 0.7%.EMU advanced Q2 GDP expanded 2.0% QoQ, 13.7% YoY.The single currency keeps pushing higher and encourages EUR/USD to briefly surpass the 1.1900 mark for the first time since late June. EUR/USD up on USD-weakness, data EUR/USD posts gains for the fifth consecutive session so far on Friday, always on the back of the renewed and strong selling bias in the dollar and positive results from the euro docket. Indeed, the greenback remains well under pressure as investors keep digesting the outcome from the latest FOMC event (Wednesday), while US yields stay side-lined well below 1.30%. Earlier in the session, flash inflation figures in the broader Euroland showed the headline CPI is expected to rise 2.2% on a year to July and 0.7% when comes to the Core CPI. In addition, preliminary GDP figures noted the economy is now seen expanding 2.0% QoQ in Q2 and 13.7% vs. the previous year. Further data saw the German Q2 estimate at 1.5% inter-quarter and 9.2% on an annualized basis. Moving forward, investors will now look to the inflation figures in the US gauged by the PCE along with Personal Income/Spending and the final U-Mich print for the current month. What to look for around EUR The recovery in EUR/USD picks up extra pace and moves beyond 1.1900 the figure at the end of the week, always following the increasing weakness surrounding the dollar. In the meantime, dollar dynamics in response to the US economic recovery, the Fed’s dovish stance and prospects of high inflation are still expected to dictate the price action in the pair. On the euro side of the equation, the re-affirmed dovish stance from the ECB (as per its latest meeting) is expected to keep the upside limited in spot despite auspicious results from key fundamentals and the persistent high morale in the region.Key events in the euro area this week: German, EMU flash Q2 GDP/EMU advanced July CPI (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and pace of the vaccination campaign. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities in the wake of the pandemic. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is up 0.03% at 1.1888 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1908 (weekly high Jul.30) followed by 1.1975 (weekly high Jun.25) and finally 1.2004 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1751 (monthly low Jul.21) would target 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31) en route to 1.1602 (November 2020 low).

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide noted on Friday that the coronavirus is spreading at an unprecedented speed in Japan and added that the delta varian

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide noted on Friday that the coronavirus is spreading at an unprecedented speed in Japan and added that the delta variant is a major factor behind that, as reported by Reuters.  "We are worried that the virus will continue to spread further," Suga said and revealed that the proportion of the elderly among those infected is between 2% and 3%. Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on the JPY's performance against its rivals. As of writing, the USD/JPY pair was up 0.12% on the day at 109.58.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. its main rivals, stays on the defensive around the 91.80 levels on Friday. US Dollar Index n

The index adds to the recent downside in the sub-92.00 area.US 10-year yields stay consolidative around the 1.25% zone.US PCE, U-Mich Index next of relevance in the calendar.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. its main rivals, stays on the defensive around the 91.80 levels on Friday. US Dollar Index now looks to data The index loses ground uninterruptedly since Monday, where it managed to briefly test the boundaries of the 93.00 yardstick. Investors’ disappointment at the FOMC event on Wednesday exacerbated the downbeat note in the buck and dragged the index further south of the 92.00 mark for the first time since late June. In the meantime, the lack of traction in the dollar is reflected by the muted performance in yields of the key US 10-year note, which keep the rangebound trade well and sound in the 1.25% zone. Later in the NA session, the focus of attention will be on the release of inflation figures tracked by the PCE (the Fed’s favourite gauge) seconded by the final Consumer Sentiment print, Personal Income/Spending and the Chicago PMI. What to look for around USD DXY’s selloff broke below the 92.00 neighbourhood after the Committee talked down the probability of QE tapering in the near term despite the upbeat, albeit so far insufficient, progress of the US economy. A clear direction in the price action around the buck is now expected to emerge after the post-FOMC dust settles. In the meantime, bouts of risk aversion in response to coronavirus concerns, the solid pace of the economic recovery, high inflation and prospects of earlier-than-expected QE tapering/rate hikes should remain key factors supporting the dollar.Key events in the US this week: PCE/Core PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Final July Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s multi-billion plan to support infrastructure and families. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Debt ceiling debate. Jackson Hole Symposium. US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.09% at 91.79 and faces the next support at 91.51 (weekly low Jun.23) seconded by 91.33 (200-day SMA) and then 91.02 (38.2% Fibo of the March-May drop). On the upside, a break above 92.49 (20-day SMA) would open the door to 93.19 (monthly high Jul.21) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.21).

EUR/CHF is now focused on the 1.0741/36 band amidst the current downtrend, noted Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzban

EUR/CHF is now focused on the 1.0741/36 band amidst the current downtrend, noted Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “EUR/CHF is grinding lower but the recent low has again not been confirmed by the daily RSI. There is a loss of downside momentum, but for now the market continues to weigh on the downside. Attention is on 1.0741/36, the 2021 low, the December low and the 78.6% retracement, we look for this to hold the downside. The 1.0736 December low is regarded as the break down point to the 1.0629 November low.” “Nearby resistance is seen at the June low at 1.0872 and also at the May 11 and 24 lows at 1.0925/27.”

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assesses the latest FOMC event (Wednesday). Key Takeaways “The Federal Reserve as widely expected, kept its p

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew assesses the latest FOMC event (Wednesday). Key Takeaways “The Federal Reserve as widely expected, kept its policy parameters and asset purchase programme (QE) unchanged in its 27/28 Jul 2021 FOMC. The FED also kept the interest paid on excess reserves (IOER) at 0.15% and the overnight reverse repo agreements (ONRRP) at 0.05%. It also established a domestic primary credit facility at the existing level of 0.25%.” “In his press conference, Chair Powell said the FED is nowhere near considering a rate hike …  Powell was also clear that it is not timely to think about raising interest rates right now, and the FED is looking at asset purchases instead. Powell revealed there is a range of views in the FOMC on when tapering is appropriate, and that the July meeting was first deep dive on timing, pace and composition of taper, with no decisions being made yet.” “The latest FOMC decision did not change our view that the first indicative hint of QE tapering could be released during the Jackson Hole Symposium (26 Aug) and further articulated into a pledge of the taper timeline in the 21/22 September 2021 FOMC. We expect the first taper to be carried out in December 2021 and the tapering process will last for nearly 1.5 years until May 2023. Thereafter, we project two 25bps rate hikes for 2023, first to 0.25%-0.50% in June and then to 0.50%-0.75% in December.”

According to Eurostat’s preliminary reading of the Eurozone CPI report, the annual figure came in at 2.2% in July, outpacing expectations of 2.0% whil

According to Eurostat’s preliminary reading of the Eurozone CPI report, the annual figure came in at 2.2% in July, outpacing expectations of 2.0% while rising from June’s reading of 1.9%. The core figures eased to 0.7% YoY in July when compared to 0.8% expectations and 0.9% recorded previously. Key details (via Eurostat) “Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (14.1%, compared with 12.6% in June), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (1.6%, compared with 0.5% in June), services (0.9%, compared with 0.7% in June) and non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 1.2% in June).” EUR/USD reaction EUR/USD looks to extends gains above 1.1900 on the Eurozone economic data, currently trading around 1.1904, up 0.14% on the day.

The Eurozone economy rebounded 2.0% on quarter in the three months to June of 2021, beating 1.5% expected and -0.3% prior, the first estimate showed o

The Eurozone economy rebounded 2.0% on quarter in the three months to June of 2021, beating 1.5% expected and -0.3% prior, the first estimate showed on Friday.  On an annualized basis, the bloc’s GDP rate expanded by 13.7% in Q2 vs. -1.3% booked in the first quarter of 2021 while beating 13.2% expectations. Separately, Eurozone's unemployment rate arrived at 7.7% in June when compared to May’s 7.9%.   more to come ... About Eurozone Preliminary GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at 0.9%, below expectations (1.7%) in July

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (-1.1%) in July

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (1.7%) in July: Actual (1.8%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in July

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 2%, above forecasts (1.5%) in 2Q

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) registered at 13.7% above expectations (13.2%) in 2Q

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (0.8%) in July

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2%) in July: Actual (2.2%)

European Monetary Union Unemployment Rate came in at 7.7% below forecasts (7.9%) in June

Greece Retail Sales (YoY) down to 15.3% in May from previous 39.3%

Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous 13.7% to 12.6% in June

Commenting on the economy and policy, China's Politburo said that they “will keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable.” Additional quotes “Will ke

Commenting on the economy and policy, China's Politburo said that they “will keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable.” Additional quotes “Will keep liquidity reasonably ample.” “Will keep economic operations within a reasonable range.”   developing story ...

USD/CAD is extending the recent downtrend into the third straight day on Friday, hitting the lowest levels in three weeks near 1.2430, as the selling

USD/CAD drops further to hit three-week lows below 1.2450.Bears target 100-DMA at 1.2368 amid renewed downside pressure. RSI remains below the midline, allowing room for more declines. Key US, Canadian data in focus for fresh direction on the major. USD/CAD is extending the recent downtrend into the third straight day on Friday, hitting the lowest levels in three weeks near 1.2430, as the selling pressure remains unabated amid a recovery in WTI prices and easing US dollar. WTI recaptures ground above $73.50 amid a calmer risk tone while the US dollar resumes its downside, fuelled by the dovish Fed stance and a big miss on the US Q2 GDP figure. Traders now look forward to the US PCE inflation and Canadian GDP data releases for fresh trading opportunities in the major. From a near-term technical perspective, USD/CAD remains vulnerable, especially after it faced rejection at the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.2605 earlier this week. The downside momentum picked up pace after the spot closed Thursday below the 21-DMA at 1.2520, which opened floors for deeper declines. The bears now target 1.2400, below which the horizontal 100-DMA at 1.2368 could come into play. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades flat but remains below the midline, suggesting that there is room for more declines. USD/CAD: Daily chart Alternatively, the bulls need to find acceptance above the daily highs of 1.2472 to recapture the 1.2500 round number. The price will face resistance at the abovementioned 21-DMA. The next relevant resistance will be then seen at the 1.2550 psychological level. USD/CAD: Additional levels  

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY): 15.5% (2Q) vs -5.4%

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) increased to 4.9% in 2Q from previous -3.3%

Portugal Consumer Price Index (YoY): 1.5% (July) vs 0.5%

Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to -0.3% in July from previous 0.2%

The EUR/GBP cross retreated few pips during the early European session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily trading range, aroun

EUR/GBP struggled to capitalize on its modest intraday gains.Softer German GDP print held the euro bulls from placing bets.Improving COVID-19 situation in the UK further capped gains.The EUR/GBP cross retreated few pips during the early European session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.8510 region. Following the previous day's two-way/directionless price moves, the EUR/GBP cross managed to regain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week. The shared currency's relative outperformance was sponsored by the post-FOMC selling bias around the US dollar. That said, a combination of factors acted as a headwind for the cross and capped gains. The preliminary report published by Destatis showed that the German economy expanded by 1.5% in the second quarter. This marked a notable rise from the 1.8% contraction recorded in the first quarter, though was well below consensus estimates pointing to a 2.0% growth. This, in turn, held the euro bulls from placing fresh bets around the EUR/GBP cross. On the other hand, the declining trend in Delta variant infections continued underpinning the British pound and further collaborated to keep a lid on the EUR/GBP cross. Looking at the broader picture, the cross, so far, has struggled to register any meaningful recovery from multi-month lows and oscillating in a range over the past three trading sessions. Friday's economic docket also highlights the release of the flash version of the Eurozone CPI and GDP figures, though is unlikely to provide any impetus to the cross. Nevertheless, the lack of buying interest clearly suggests that the near-term bearish trend is still far from being over and attempted recovery moves run the risk of fizzling out quickly. Technical levels to watch  

Australian Prime Minister Scot Morrison rolls out an outline of the covid restrictions in the country while expressing his take on the economic outloo

Australian Prime Minister Scot Morrison rolls out an outline of the covid restrictions in the country while expressing his take on the economic outlook. Key quotes 80% of adult population needs to be fully vaccinated before considering reopening borders. Those vaccinated will have "special rules" applied to them. That considering they pose a lesser health risk to the community. Phase A as is the current situation. Phase B is when 70% of the vaccine-eligible population is fully vaccinated both nationally and, in that state,/territory. Phase C is when the fully vaccinated target hits 80%. Only when reaching Phase C it can lead to extension of "travel bubbles" with other candidate countries. If health advice changes on vaccinating children will refresh reopen plan accordingly. Have not set a timetable for hitting COVID-19 vaccination targets. I believe we can hit 70% vaccination rate by year-end. Expect strong economic recovery in Q4 if Sydney comes out of COVID-19 lockdown. AUD/USD reaction Amid fresh US dollar selling, AUD/USD is testing offers around 0.7400 once again. The spot has erased earlier losses and trades flat on the day.

Spain Current Account Balance increased to €0.9B in May from previous €0.4B

Norway Registered Unemployment s.a: 103.39K (July) vs 103.2K

Norway Registered Unemployment n.s.a above expectations (2.9%) in July: Actual (3.1%)

Turkey Foreign Arrivals: 853.4% (June) vs previous 3038.83%

The German economy grew 1.5% inter-quarter in the second quarter of 2021 when compared to the expectations of 2.0% and -1.8% booked in Q1, the prelimi

German GDP arrives at 1.5% QoQ in Q2 vs. 2.0% expected.Annualized German GDP stands at 9.2% in Q2 vs. 9.6% expected.EUR/USD unmoved on downbeat German Q2 growth numbers.The German economy grew 1.5% inter-quarter in the second quarter of 2021 when compared to the expectations of 2.0% and -1.8% booked in Q1, the preliminary report published by Destatis showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the annualized GDP rate rebounded by 9.2% in Q2 against the previous reading of -3.4% and missed market expectations of 9.6% expansion. Separately, the Italian economy expanded by 2.7% QoQ in Q2 but bettered estimates of 1.3% and 0.1% previous.   more to come .... About German Prelim GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better-than-expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 9.2% below forecasts (9.6%) in 2Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 1.5%, below expectations (2%) in 2Q

Italy Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) above expectations (1.3%) in 2Q: Actual (2.7%)

Italy Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (15.6%) in 2Q: Actual (17.3%)

FX Strategists at UOB Group now see USD/CNH returning to the previous consolidative stance, likely within the 6.4400-6.5000 range. Key Quotes 24-hour

FX Strategists at UOB Group now see USD/CNH returning to the previous consolidative stance, likely within the 6.4400-6.5000 range. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The sharp and rapid drop in USD to 6.4563 came as a surprise (we were expecting USD to trade sideways). The decline appears to be overdone and USD is unlikely to weaken much further. For today, USD is more likely to trade between 6.4500 and 6.4750.” Next 1-3 weeks: “While we noted yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 6.4900) that ‘the prospect for USD to move to 6.5500 has diminished’ we did not anticipate the subsequent sharp sell-off to 6.4563. The break of our ‘strong support’ at 6.4820 indicates that the build-up in momentum (when USD soared to 6.5289 on Wednesday) fizzled out quickly. The sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook and USD could trade within a 6.4400/6.5000 range for now.”

Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, noted EUR/GBP now faces some consolidation in the very near term. Key Quotes “

Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, noted EUR/GBP now faces some consolidation in the very near term. Key Quotes “EUR/GBP continues to sit in 3 month lows. Note that it still has not CLOSED below .8503 and we may see some very near term consolidation. Attention is on the .8471 long term pivot. Failure at .8471/65 would target .8314/.8239 as well as the 200 month moving average at .8135.” “Initial resistance is the 55-day ma at .8584 ahead of stronger resistance at .8673, the 25th May high.”

The NZD/USD pair quickly bounced around 15-20 pips from daily lows and was last seen trading with only modest losses, just above the key 0.7000 psycho

NZD/USD edged lower on Friday, though lacked follow-through selling.A softer risk tone exerted some pressure on the perceived riskier kiwi.A modest USD strength further contributed to the intraday selling bias.The NZD/USD pair quickly bounced around 15-20 pips from daily lows and was last seen trading with only modest losses, just above the key 0.7000 psychological mark. The pair struggled to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up to near two-week tops and edged lower during the first half of the trading action on Friday. Investors remain worried about the potential economic fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus. This was evident from a generally softer tone around the equity markets, which, in turn, acted as a headwind for the perceived riskier kiwi. Meanwhile, the risk-off impulse in the markets allowed traders to look past Thursday's dismal US macro releases and extended some support to the safe-haven US dollar. In fact, the first estimate showed that the US economy expanded by 6.5% annualized pace during the second quarter, well short of the 8.5% growth anticipated. Moreover, the US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales data also missed expectations. This comes on the back of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Wednesday, which held the USD bulls from placing any aggressive bets and helped limit any deeper losses for the NZD/USD pair. During the post-meeting press conference, Powell emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. Powell further added that it will take a few more meetings before the Fed starts tapering its asset purchases. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – highlighting the release of the Core PCE Price Index. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/JPY is still expected to navigate within the 109.20/110.60 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/JPY is still expected to navigate within the 109.20/110.60 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected USD to weaken yesterday but we were of the view that ‘any decline is not expected to break the support at 109.50’. The subsequent weakness exceeded our expectations as USD took out 109.50 and dropped to 109.41. While the decline is oversold, further USD weakness is not ruled out. However, a break of the major support at 109.20 is unlikely. Resistance is at 109.75 followed by 110.00.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from Wednesday (28 Jul, spot at 109.85) still stands. As highlighted, USD could trade within a 109.20/110.60 range for now. While shorter-term downward momentum has improved somewhat, USD has to close below 109.05 before a sustained decline can be expected. The prospect for USD to close below 109.05 is not high but it would remain intact as long as USD does not move above 110.00 within these few days.”

In light of the recent price action, USD/CHF could now move into a consolidative phase, noted Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research

In light of the recent price action, USD/CHF could now move into a consolidative phase, noted Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “USD/CHF has sold off aggressively following its recent failure at the 4-month downtrend at .9213 and has now closed below the .9074 200 day ma but is holding around the 61.8% retracement at .9059. We should see some consolidation here, the Elliott wave count is implying that this is the end of the move lower.” “Below .9054/46, (the late May and early June highs as well as the early February high) will target the 78.6% retracement at .9000. This is the last defence for the .8926/31 May lows.”

The GBP/USD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, just

GBP/SUD was seen consolidating its recent strong gains to the highest level since June 24.A modest USD strength held bulls from placing fresh bets and capped the upside for the pair.The downside seems limited as traders now eye US Core PCE Price Index for a fresh impetus.The GBP/USD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, just above mid-1.3900s. The pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the first half of the trading action on Friday and consolidated its recent strong gains to the highest level since June 24. It is worth reporting that the GBP/USD pair has rallied over 400 pips from multi-month lows touched last week amid optimism over the declining trend in new COVID-19 cases in the UK. However, a modest US dollar strength held traders from placing fresh bullish bets and kept a lid on any further gains, at least for the time being. As investors looked past Thursday's softer US GDP print, worries about the potential economic fallout from the fast-spreading Delta variant of the coronavirus benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status. That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Wednesday acted as a headwind for the USD. During the post-meeting press conference, Powell emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. Powell was also cautious about tapering and said that it will take a few more meetings before the Fed starts slowing its massive monetary support. Apart from this, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields – triggered by the risk-off impulse in the market – might further cap the upside for the greenback. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has topped out in the near term and positioning for any meaningful corrective slide. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the UK on Friday, leaving the GBP/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from the release of the US Core PCE Price Index. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus. Technical levels to watch  

Spain Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 19.6% to 1.4% in June

Hungary Gross Wages (YoY) dipped from previous 10.3% to 8.5% in May

Turkey Trade Balance climbed from previous -4.13B to -2.85B in June

Italy Unemployment below expectations (10.4%) in June: Actual (9.7%)

Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator came in at 129.8, below expectations (130) in July

Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 4.3%, above expectations (3.5%) in 2Q

Eurostat will publish the first estimate of Eurozone inflation and growth figures for July and Q2 2021 respectively at 0900 GMT on Friday. The headlin

Eurozone Preliminary CPIs and GDP overview Eurostat will publish the first estimate of Eurozone inflation and growth figures for July and Q2 2021 respectively at 0900 GMT on Friday. The headline CPI is anticipated to rise to 2.0% YoY while the core inflation is seen dropping to 0.8% YoY in the reported month. On an annualized basis, the bloc’s economy is likely to rebound sharply by 13.2% in Q2 while inter-quarter the GDP rate is expected to expand by 1.5% vs. -0.3% prior. Ahead of this data set, Germany is set to publish its Q2 Preliminary GDP report at 0800 GMT, with the economy seen growing by 2% QoQ vs. -1.8% booked in the previous quarter. Deviation impact on EUR/USD Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the CPI below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 20 pips in deviations up to 3 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 30-45 pips. How could affect EUR/USD? Haresh Menghani, FXStreet's Analyst, notes important technical levels ahead of the key release, “from a technical perspective, the recent rebound from support marked by a short-term ascending trend-line stalled just ahead of monthly swing highs, around the 1.1900 neighborhood. The mentioned handle should now act as a key pivotal point for traders, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for additional gains. The subsequent short-covering move has the potential to lift the pair back towards the 1.2000 psychological mark. On the flip side, the 1.1850-45 region now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 1.1800 mark and the 1.1770-60 region.”  Key notes EUR/USD eases below 1.1900, Eurozone GDP, US PCE Inflation eyed Can markets in Europe finish higher for the sixth month in a row? Forex Today: US dollar rebounds amid covid-led risk-off mood, US PCE inflation in focus About Eurozone Preliminary CPIs and GDP estimate The Euro Zone CPI released by Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY) above forecasts (19%) in 2Q: Actual (19.8%)

Spain Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ) above forecasts (2.2%) in 2Q: Actual (2.8%)

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 1% in May from previous 0.9%

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 6% to 6.9% in May

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) registered at 0.1% above expectations (-0.1%) in July

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) came in at 1.6%, above expectations (1.4%) in July

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild positive bias heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near daily tops, just above mid-109.00s

A combination of factors assisted USD/JPY to gain some positive traction on Friday.The worsening coronavirus situation in Japan acted as a headwind for the JPY.A modest USD strength provided an additional boost, though the upside seems limited.The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild positive bias heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near daily tops, just above mid-109.00s. The pair edged higher on the last trading day of the week and was supported by a combination of factors, stalling this week's retracement slide from levels just above mid-110.00s. The worsening COVID-19 situation in Japan undermined the Japanese yen and assisted the USD/JPY pair to gain some positive traction. In the latest developments, Japan reported more than 9,000 daily cases yesterday. Adding to this, the government reportedly mulls a state of emergency for Osaka prefecture and extend in Tokyo to 31 August. This, along with a modest pickup in the US dollar demand, provided an additional boost to the USD/JPY pair. As investors looked past Thursday's dismal US macro data, fresh coronavirus jitters turned out to be a key factor that benefitted the greenback's status as the global reserve currency. That said, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks on Wednesday might act as a headwind and cap the upside for the USD/JPY pair. During the post-meeting press conference, Powell emphasised that they were some ways away from substantial progress on jobs. Powell was also cautious about tapering and said that it will take a few more meetings before the Fed starts slowing its massive monetary support. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move. Market participants now look forward to the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, due later during the early North American session, for some short-term opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that the second-quarter economic performance was 'exceptional' after the economy expanded 0.9% QoQ in Q2 v

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that the second-quarter economic performance was 'exceptional' after the economy expanded 0.9% QoQ in Q2 vs. 0.8% expectations. Additional comments “Q2 French economic growth better than forecast and marked an exceptional performance by the economy.” “Q2 French economic performance puts France on track to meet its 6% growth target for whole of 2021.” “Will give further economic aid to overseas territories such as Martinique and la reunion, which are going into new lockdowns to tackle covid.” “France will increase its semi-conductor production capacities.” “France will invest more in semiconductors and in hydrogen sectors.” Market reaction Upbeat French growth numbers have little to no impact on the euro, as EUR/USD continues to flirt with daily lows of 1.1875, down 0.07% on the day.

In light of preliminary figures from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest increased for the second session in a row on Thursday, t

In light of preliminary figures from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest increased for the second session in a row on Thursday, this time by nearly 12K contracts. On the flip side, volume dropped for the second consecutive day, now by around 37.5K contracts. Natural gas still targets $4.20 Thursday’s recovery in prices of natural gas was accompanied by increasing open interest, supporting the view of the continuation of the uptrend in the very near term. That said, the next hurdle of relevance is still parked at the $4.20 mark per MMBtu.

FX option expiries for July 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1700 1.1b 1.1750 487m 1.1850 1.5b

FX option expiries for July 30 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.1700 1.1b 1.1750 487m 1.1850 1.5b 1.1900 1.2b 1.2000 538m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.3800 381m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          109.00 537m - USD/CHF: USD amounts         0.9450 500m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.2400 785m   1.2450 735m 1.2500 835m

USD/CHF edges higher on Friday in the European trading hour. The pair hovers in a very close trading range with positive bias. At the time of writing,

USD/CHF pauses the previous two day’s decline on Friday.Bulls take support near the lower trend line of the descending channel.Momentum oscillator tilts in favor of the bearish momentum.USD/CHF edges higher on Friday in the European trading hour. The pair hovers in a very close trading range with positive bias. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9070, up 0.09 % for the day. USD/CHF daily chart On the daily chart, the USD/CHF pair has been trading in a broader trading channel of 0.9100 and 0.9270. If price breaks the session’s high, it could test the upside target at the 0.9100 and the 0.9150 horizontal resistance level. A daily close above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.9160 would bring 0.9200 back in the picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trades below the midline with a bearish crossover. The reading suggests that there is room for further downside to the horizontal 0.9050 support level. A break of 0.9050 could test the low of June 16 at 0.8977 followed by the 0.8940 horizontal support level. USD/CHF additional levels  

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 30: Escalating coronavirus concerns have revived the global growth concerns, weighing heavily on the mar

Here is what you need to know on Friday, July 30: Escalating coronavirus concerns have revived the global growth concerns, weighing heavily on the market mood. The US CDC set out new guidelines, reimposing the mask mandate while Japan is likely to extend the state of emergency to more prefectures, including Osaka. The Asian stock markets are in a sea of red while the S&P 500 futures shed 0.85%. The risk-off mood has rescued the US dollar from the pain induced by the dovish Fed-induced pain as well as by a big miss on the US Q2 Prelim GDP. Markets also reacted negatively to disappointing Amazon’s Q2 earnings results. The US Treasury yields reverse previous gains amid a flight to safety in the bonds, shrugging off the progress on US President Joe Biden’s bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal. The US Senate remains upbeat on prospects for a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which cleared an important procedural hurdle by a vote of 67-32 on Wednesday. Across the G10 fx space, the kiwi dollar remains the main laggard so far this Friday amid a broad US dollar’s rebound. AUD/USD eased back below 0.7400 despite a slowdown in virus surge in New South Wales.EUR/USD is trading under pressure after facing rejection just shy of the 1.1900 barrier. The weakness in the Treasury yields seemingly limits the downside in the currency pair. The EUR traders also await the preliminary German and Eurozone GDP release for fresh trading impetus. Also, of note remains the bloc’s inflation data. Meanwhile, GBP/USD remains pressured toward 1.3800 as the worsening market mood offsets the optimism over the Brexit issue and falling covid cases in the UK. Gold is in a bullish consolidative mode, holding near ten-day highs of $1832, with further gains dependent on the US Core PCE inflation release. WTI is battling the $73 mark, on the backfoot even though tighter supplies worries loom.Bitcoin fails to resist once again above $40,000 amid a generalized cautious mood.  Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:Rate this content (function() { var qs,js,q,s,d=document, gi=d.getElementById, ce=d.createElement, gt=d.getElementsByTagName, id="typef_orm_share", b="https://embed.typeform.com/"; if(!gi.call(d,id)){ js=ce.call(d,"script"); js.id=id; js.src=b+"embed.js"; q=gt.call(d,"script")[0]; q.parentNode.insertBefore(js,q) } })()

Denmark Unemployment Rate down to 3.3% in June from previous 3.6%

One-month risk reversal on Palladium (XPD/USD), a measure of the spread between call and put prices, is on the way to register a four-month downtrend

One-month risk reversal on Palladium (XPD/USD), a measure of the spread between call and put prices, is on the way to register a four-month downtrend according to data source Reuters. A call option gives the holder the right but not obligation to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. A put option represents a right to sell. That said, the monthly difference between them slumps to -0.725 by the end of Thursday’s trading session, per Reuters. The same represents the biggest bearish bias since February on a monthly basis. While comparing the same to the XPD/USD moves, the commodity prices are on the way to drop for the third consecutive month despite the latest recovery moves from $2,589. As the options market signal favors the palladium bears, sluggish momentum and the US dollar rebound should be taken as extra catalysts supporting the commodity’s further weakness.

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, AUD/USD remains side-lined between 0.7320 and 0.7450 for the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highli

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, AUD/USD remains side-lined between 0.7320 and 0.7450 for the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that AUD ‘could test 0.7390 but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely’. We added, ‘the next resistance at 0.7420 is not expected to come into the picture’. Our view was not wrong even though the subsequent AUD strength exceeded our expectation as it came within a few pips of 0.7420 (overnight high of 0.7414). While overbought, the advance has room to test 0.7420 first before easing. A clear break of the next resistance at 0.7450 would come as a surprise. On the downside, a breach of 0.7355 (minor support is at 0.7375) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our view from a week ago (23 Jul, spot at 0.7385) where AUD could trade between 0.7320 and 0.7450 for a period of time still stands. That said, shorter-term upward momentum is beginning to improve and the upside risk has increased. However, AUD has to close above 0.7450 before a sustained advance can be expected. The prospect for AUD to close above 0.7450 is not high for now but would remain intact as long as AUD does not move below 0.7355 within these couple of days.”

In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, EUR/USD could now attempt to test the 1.1930/85 band. Key Quotes

In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, EUR/USD could now attempt to test the 1.1930/85 band. Key Quotes “EUR/USD maintained its near term move higher yesterday. The Elliott wave count still has this as being a correction only but are allowing now for a move into the 1.1930/85 band. It will need to regain the 200-day ma and the 50% retracement at 1.2008/15 to reassert upside pressure and attention to the 1.2266 May high.” “Below 1.1750 attention will revert to the September, November and March lows at 1.1704/1.1600.”

USD/IDR picks up bids to $14,480, up 0.27% intraday, as European traders brace for Friday’s bell. In doing so, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) pair reboun

USD/IDR snaps three-day downtrend, bounces off five-week low.BI Governor Perry Warjiyo hints at a shift in monetary stance.Covid woes back USD rebound, offer extra strength to the pair.US data, risk catalysts should be watched for fresh impulse.USD/IDR picks up bids to $14,480, up 0.27% intraday, as European traders brace for Friday’s bell. In doing so, the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) pair rebounds from the lowest levels since June 21, marked the previous day, while also snapping a three-day downtrend. The pair’s recovery moves could be traced to comments from Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo who spoke during an online seminar with local economists per Reuters. The central bank governor said, “Indonesia's central bank will shift its monetary policy stance in 2022 to ‘pro-stability’ of the financial markets, but its other policy tools will be used to support an economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.” The comments suggest the central bank is planning to reduce excess liquidity from the banking sector, per Reuters. It was also mentioned that BI’s Warjiyo also repeated pledge to use “pro-growth” tools during rest of 2021. Other than BI Governor Warjiyo’s comments, the covid woes in the Asian nation and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) reduction of GDP growth for Indonesia, 3.9% versus 4.3% prior, also favor USD/IDR buyers. It’s worth noting that the Indonesian government also cut 2021 GDP forecasts “to between 3.7 and 4.5 percent from between 4.5 and 5.3 percent,” per Reuters. It's worth noting that the highest daily covid numbers in the US since February also underpins the US dollar’s safe-haven demand, not to forget downbeat equities. Looking forward, US PCE Core Price Index for June is up for printing higher-than-previous figures of 3.7% YoY and can keep the USD/IDR on the front foot as the same renews reflation fears. However, covid and US stimulus headlines should also be watched closely for clearer directions. Technical analysis Although 200-day EMA put a floor under the USD/IDR prices around $14,400, bulls remain unconvinced before crossing a downward sloping resistance line from July 20 near $14,520.  

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Thursday,

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Thursday, this time by around 2.8K contracts. On the other hand, volume rose by nearly 19K contracts after two daily pullbacks in a row. WTI appears capped by the $75.00 mark Prices of the WTI clinched new 2-week highs beyond the $73.00 mark on Thursday. The move was amidst shrinking open interest and hint at the idea that a probable leg lower could be in the offing. In the meantime, the $75.00 mark per barrel continues to cap occasional bullish attempts for the time being.

France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.8%) in 2Q

France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (1.4%) in June: Actual (0.3%)

AUD/USD pares initial gain and slips into negative territory in the early European trading hours. The pair opened higher but failed to preserve the mo

AUD/USD pares part of its previous two day’s upside momentum.The Australian dollar losses against the greenback on mixed economic data.US Dollar rebounds from the lower levels amid risk-aversion.AUD/USD pares initial gain and slips into negative territory in the early European trading hours. The pair opened higher but failed to preserve the momentum. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7390, down 0.07% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against its six major rivals recovers from its earlier lower levels to trade near the 92.00 mark. The buying interest in the US dollar weighs on the risker assets like Aussie.  On the other hand, Aussie loses grounds as investors assessed the impact of extended lockdown in Sydney that began today after a spike to record levels of COVID-19 cases.  Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% on a quarterly basis, beating the 0.4% growth in Q1. The Private Sector Credit rose 0.9% in June. It is worth noting that, S&P Futures were trading at $4,373, down 0.87% for the day. As for now, traders await the US Personal Spending and Income data, and Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) to trade fresh trading impetus. AUD/USD additional levels
 
 

Cable could move into a consolidative phase ahead of a probable test of the 1.4000 level, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour vi

Cable could move into a consolidative phase ahead of a probable test of the 1.4000 level, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for a higher GBP yesterday was correct but we did not anticipate the strong rise to 1.3985 (we were of the view that 1.3955 is likely out of reach). The advance is deep in overbought territory and this coupled with signs of weakening momentum indicates that GBP is unlikely to strengthen much further. For today, GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade between 1.3915 and 1.3985.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected GBP to strengthen since early this week. Yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 1.3880), we highlighted that there is room for GBP to advance further but overbought shorter-term conditions suggest that 1.3955 may not come into the picture so soon. However, GBP quickly and easily cracked 1.3955 as it rose to 1.3982 during NY session. Shorter-term conditions remain overbought and this could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. As long as 1.3860 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3800 yesterday) is not breached, an advance to 1.4000 would not be surprising. Looking ahead, the next resistance above 1.4000 is at 1.4050.”

USD/CNH flirts with $6.4600 while defending short-term support during early Friday. Even so, the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) keeps the previous day’s

USD/CNH fades bounce off short-term horizontal support, keeps 200-SMA breakdown.Bearish MACD backs the sellers to aim for mid-June top.Monthly resistance line adds to the upside filters.USD/CNH flirts with $6.4600 while defending short-term support during early Friday. Even so, the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) keeps the previous day’s downside break of 200-SMA amid bearish MACD. Hence, USD/CNH bears remain hopeful to visit the mid-June tops surrounding $6.4200. However, a clear break of $6.4500 immediate support becomes necessary for that. Should the pair sellers keep reins past $6.4200, the $6.4000 psychological magnet will be on their radars. Meanwhile, 200-SMA near $6.4725 guards the quote’s corrective pullback, if any, a break of which could escalate the recovery moves to a three-week-old horizontal resistance near $6.5000. It should be noted though that an ascending trend line from June 23 and the monthly high, respectively around $6.5100 and $6.5285, become additional challenges for the USD/CNH buyers if they chose to return. Overall, USD/CNH remains pressured but sellers await a trigger. USD/CNH: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by around 18.4K contracts after two consecutive daily pullbacks on Thursday considering advanced readings f

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by around 18.4K contracts after two consecutive daily pullbacks on Thursday considering advanced readings from CME Group. Volume, instead, resumed the downtrend and shrank by around 174.2K contracts. Gold now looks to $1,860 Thursday’s strong advance in gold prices was amidst rising open interest, opening the door to the continuation of the upside in the very near term. That said, the next target of note comes in at the Fibo level at the $1,860 mark per ounce troy.

Japan Annualized Housing Starts fell from previous 0.875M to 0.866M in June

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at 7.3%, above forecasts (7.2%) in June

Japan Construction Orders (YoY) increased to 32.3% in June from previous 7.4%

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD is now predicted to advance beyond the 1.1900 yardstick in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While w

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD is now predicted to advance beyond the 1.1900 yardstick in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expected EUR to strengthen yesterday, we were of the view that ‘1.1895 is not expected to come under threat’. Our view was not wrong even though EUR came within a few pips of 1.1895 as it touched 1.1892 during late NY hours. The advance is in overbought territory but with no signs of weakness just yet, EUR edge higher to 1.1915. A break of the next resistance at 1.1945 would come as a surprise. Support is 1.1865 followed by 1.1845. A break of 1.1845 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We turned positive on EUR yesterday (29 Jul, spot at 1.1845). We highlighted that ‘mild upward pressure could lead to a higher EUR but any advance is expected to face solid resistance at 1.1895’. While our view for a stronger EUR was not wrong, we did not quite anticipate the rapid manner by which EUR approaches 1.1895 (overnight high of 1.1892). Upward momentum has improved further and EUR could continue to advance towards 1.1915, possibly 1.1945. On the downside, a break of 1.1825 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1770 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

USD/INR picks up bids around 74.30, 0.08% intraday, ahead of Friday’s European session. Although the latest bounce off the monthly low favors the Indi

USD/INR snaps two-day south-run, bounces off monthly low.Covid woes put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar.Indian infections rise by 44,230, virus-led deaths jumped by 555.US PCE Inflation, second-tier Indian data and risk catalysts should be watched for fresh impulse.USD/INR picks up bids around 74.30, 0.08% intraday, ahead of Friday’s European session. Although the latest bounce off the monthly low favors the Indian rupee (INR) pair to print daily gains for the first time in three weeks, it remains on the two-week south-run by the press time. While tracing the pair’s immediate rebound, the US dollar recovered from a one-month low, amid the coronavirus woes, which could be cited as the key catalyst. Also helping the counter-trend traders could be the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, namely US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for June. Although India is luckily far from Japan and the US, the Asian nation’s latest covid numbers do give a wake-up call to the policymakers. As per the latest Health Ministry data, conveyed by Reuters, India reports 44,230 new covid-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking a total to 31.57 million. Further, the death toll increased by 555 to 423,217 at the latest. Elsewhere, Japan posts record daily covid count and the US infections are also the highest since February. On the other hand, US Q2 GDP backed the Fed’s resistance to discuss tapering but today’s inflation data may renew reflation fears as market consensus favors a 3.7% YoY figures versus 3.4% previous readouts. Furthermore, the US Senate talks over President Joe Biden’s infrastructures spending plan are also positive and suggests a further inflow of money, which in turn could bring additional inflation and urgency for the Fed to act. The market plays back US Dollar Index (DXY) to snaps a four-day downtrend, up 0.05% around 91.96 by the press time. However, the US Treasury yields and stock futures, not to forget Asian stocks, are offered at the time of the press. Given the risk-off mood favoring the USD/INR bulls, any further strengthening of the US data may extend the recovery moves. However, Indian infrastructure relating data and headlines affecting market sentiment, mainly relating to the covid and US stimulus, will also be important to watch for near-term direction. Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index June Preview: Bad will not be bad enough Technical analysis Unless breaking the late June’s swing lows, surrounding 74.00, USD/INR may again try to cross the 21-DMA level surrounding 74.55.  

Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 7.2% in June from previous 7.9%

NZD/USD steps back from a fortnight top to 0.7000, down 0.15% intraday, amid early Friday. The kiwi pair jumped the most in two weeks the previous day

NZD/USD consolidates the heaviest daily gains in two weeks.Bullish MACD, failures to stay below 0.6920 keeps buyers hopeful.200-DMA adds to the upside barriers, September 2020 tops may lure bears below yearly low.NZD/USD steps back from a fortnight top to 0.7000, down 0.15% intraday, amid early Friday. The kiwi pair jumped the most in two weeks the previous day but couldn’t cross a downward sloping trend line. Given the bullish MACD and the pair’s repeated failures to break the 0.6920 horizontal support zone, established since July 13, NZD/USD prices are likely to remain firmer. Even so, a short-term pullback to the stated horizontal support line can’t be ignored wherein 0.6950 may act as an intermediate halt. If at all the pair sellers remain dominant past 0.6920, the yearly low close to 0.6880 holds the key to further south-run targeting late 2020 tops surrounding 0.6800. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond 0.7020 could renew buying interest in the NZD/USD. Following that, 200-DMA level around 0.7100 and tops marked during June 17 and July 07, around 0.7110, should challenge the bulls. Overall, NZD/USD remains in the recovery mode despite having a bumpy road ahead. NZD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

US President Joe Biden’s administration “would not rule out further lockdowns to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 if scientists recommended such action

US President Joe Biden’s administration “would not rule out further lockdowns to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 if scientists recommended such action,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Thursday.  Key quotes "... we listen to the scientists." “We listen to the experts. This is a public-health situation …” This comes after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) setting off new guidelines to reimpose the mask mandate, with 96,085 new coronavirus cases reported as on Thursday, the biggest one-day increase since February. Market reaction The market mood remains sour amid looming virus concerns, reflective of the 0.75% drop in the S&P 500 futures – a risk barometer. Meanwhile, the US dollar index is trading at 91.85, up 0.10% on the day, rebounding from the Fed and US GDP-led declines.

EUR/GBP prints some gains on the last trading day of the week. The pair confides in a narrow trade band with a mildly bullish bias. At the time of wri

EUR/GBP manages to trade higher on Friday in the Asian trading session.Cross is not in the mood to give up 0.8520 easily to bears.Momentum oscillators hold onto the oversold zone warrants caution against aggressive bets.EUR/GBP prints some gains on the last trading day of the week. The pair confides in a narrow trade band with a mildly bullish bias. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8516, down 0.05% for the day. EUR/GBP daily chart On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP cross has been consolidating near 0.8520 level with the formation of three Doji Candlesticks, which indicates indecisiveness among the traders. A sustained move below the intraday low would meet with the first support at the 0.8500 horizontal support level. A daily close below 0.8500 will open the gates for the April 6 low level placed at 0.8485. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades in the oversold zone. Any downtick in the MACD would prompt bears to retest the low in the vicinity of 0.8470 made on April 5. Alternatively, if price moves higher, it will shrug off the current downside momentum. In that case, the first upside target emerges at the 0.8530 horizontal resistance level. The next upside target appears at the 0.8560 horizontal resistance level followed by the high of July 23 at 0.8584. EUR/GBP additional levels  

According to the analysts at JP Morgan, “the Fed statements reference to 'meetings' (plural) would seem to further reduce the chances of a September t

According to the analysts at JP Morgan, “the Fed statements reference to 'meetings' (plural) would seem to further reduce the chances of a September taper announcement.” Key quotes “In 2013. the FOMC statements didn't begin to acknowledge progress toward their labor market goals until September, two meetings before the December taper announcement That template would seem to suggest that tapering could be announced at the November meeting.“ “We continue to expect a December announcement, though we see a risk it could occur in November instead.” “The developments from the meeting and presser may have been a little more hawkish on tapering, the overall message about the path of rates remains quite dovish.”

EUR/USD edges lower around the intraday bottom of 1.1879, down 0.05% on a day, heading into Friday’s European session. The major currency pair marked

EUR/USD holds lower ground, snaps four-day uptrend near fortnight top.DXY benefits from covid woes, ignores Treasury yields pullback.US GDP backs Fed’s resistance to discuss tapering, Core PCE Price Index may challenge easy-money policies.German GDP, US infrastructure spending updates should be observed too.EUR/USD edges lower around the intraday bottom of 1.1879, down 0.05% on a day, heading into Friday’s European session. The major currency pair marked a four-day uptrend the previous day when poking the monthly high marked on July 06. However, the risk-off mood put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar and triggered the DXY rebound from the monthly low afterward. US President Joe Biden recently pushed White House staff to either take the vaccine jabs or welcome routine covid tests as the US registers the highest daily infections since February. The conditions are murkier in Japan where the government is planning to take few more prefectures under emergency after recording over 10,000 daily cases for the first time. It’s worth noting that the latest coronavirus numbers are a bit easy from Australia and the UK but aren’t suggesting any improvements in the Delta covid strain woes. In addition to the rush to risk-safety, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also benefits from the reflation fears as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE Core Price Index for June is up for printing higher-than-previous figures of 3.7% YoY. On the same line, US inflation expectations recently jumped to the highest since early June and exert additional pressure on the US central bank to roll back easy-money policies. Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index June Preview: Bad will not be bad enough Alternatively, US Senators are up and running towards the President’s next stimulus, which in turn challenges the market bears. As per Reuters, “The US Senate on Thursday prepared to tackle the details of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill backed by President Joe Biden, with the possibility of weekend work looming after lawmakers agreed to advance the measure.” Furthermore, softer-than-expected GDP and cooling of housing data, not to forget recently rising US Jobless Claims, add to the US dollar’s upside barriers. On other hand, European Central Bank's (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB Strategy Meeting Accounts favored mildly strong inflation while staying cautiously optimistic over growth numbers. Hence, any disappointment in the preliminary readings of German and Eurozone Q2 GDP should offer extra weakness to the EUR/USD. However, US data and risk catalysts become more important to follow for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Bullish MACD signals back the EUR/USD pair’s breakout of a six-week-old resistance line, now support around 1.1850. However, of 200-day EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of late March-May upside, near 1.1920, challenges the pair buyers. Hence, the pair’s short-term moves may turn out less impressive until staying between 1.1850 and 1.1920.  

After testing a one-month high in the overnight session, GBP/USD pares part of its gains in the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair seems to be

GBP/USD pauses the previous session’s gain on Friday in the Asian session.US dollar rebounds toward 92.00 after hitting a one-month low.The sterling gains on the hope that the BOE could be less dovish further due to a steady decline in coronavirus infections.After testing a one-month high in the overnight session, GBP/USD pares part of its gains in the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair seems to be exhaustive near the 1.4000 mark but remained elevated. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3955 down 0.04% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback performance against its six major rivals, trades below gains some traction in the Asian trading hour, after it hit a one month low in the previous session. The downbeat US data and the dovish Fed took a toll on the USD valuation. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at 6.5% in Q1, well below the market consensus of 8.5%. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the job market still had “ some ground to cover before it would be time to talk about tapering. On the other hand, the sterling gains ground after the reports surfaced that UK scaped quarantine status for fully vaccinated EU and US visitors. Meantime, the EU pauses legal action against the UK over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. As for now, investors await the US Personal Spending and Income data, and Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) to take fresh trading impetus. GBP/USD additional levels  

Singapore Unemployment rate fell from previous 2.9% to 2.7% in 2Q

AUD/NZD treads water on the last trading week of the day in the Asian trading hours. The pair lacks direction and hovers in a narrow price band. At th

AUD/NZD remains muted in the Asain trading session on Friday.Additional loose envisioned for the pair if price breaks 1.0540.Momentum oscillators indicate underlying bearish sentimentAUD/NZD treads water on the last trading week of the day in the Asian trading hours. The pair lacks direction and hovers in a narrow price band. At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0554, down 0.01% for the day. AUD/NZD daily chart On the daily chart, the AUD/NZD pair has been trading below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0623.  A  sustained move above the intraday low would bring more selling opportunities.  In doing so, the levels last seen in 2020 could be back in action with the first lower target at 1.0512 low of December 9,  2020, followed by the previous day’s low in the vicinity of 1.0500. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in the oversold zone. Any downtick in the MACD would accelerate the selling pressure toward December 4, a low of 1.0506. Alternatively, if price moves higher, it would retest the 1.0585 horizontal resistance level. Further, AUD/NZD bulls would aim for the previous day’s high at 1.0641 The market participants will keep their eyes on the 1.0697  horizontal resistance level. AUD/NZD additional levels
 

Despite a positive close on Wall Street overnight, the Asian traders fail to rejoice, as the sentiment has turned sour on the final trading day of the

Despite a positive close on Wall Street overnight, the Asian traders fail to rejoice, as the sentiment has turned sour on the final trading day of the week amid escalating coronavirus concerns. The surge in the covid infections worldwide has been relentless, with spiking cases in the US and Japan so much so that the world’s third-largest economy is set to expand the state of emergency on Friday to Tokyo's three neighboring prefectures of Osaka, Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa. New infections topped 10,000 for the first time on Thursday, with Tokyo alone reporting 3,865 cases. The situation in the US is no better, with flare-ups of the virus popping up in various states and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) setting off new guidelines to reimpose the mask mandate, According to BNO News, the US reported 96,085 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February. On this side of the Pacific, it’s a bit of a relief, with covid cases eases off the peaks in Australia. New South Wales (NSW) reported 170 new cases on Friday when compared to the previous increase of 239 on Thursday. Amid renewed covid jitters, the Asian stocks are in a sea of red, led mainly by the Japanese Nikkei 225 index, which is down 1.40% to 27,397. Chinese stocks are back in the negative territory, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing 1.13% so far. Meanwhile, the futures tied to the S&P 500 index are shedding 0.66% to trade at 4,390, as of writing. The downbeat sentiment could be also associated to a big miss on the US Q2 growth figures.

Gold (XAU/USD) stays defensive around $1,830, sidelined of late, amid Friday’s Asian session. The yellow metal crossed 200-DMA for the first time sinc

Gold consolidates the heaviest daily and weekly gains since early May.Market sentiment sours as virus concern escalate, progress over US stimulus ignored.US dollar shrugs off Treasury yield pullback to rebound from monthly low ahead of Core PCE Price Index.Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD bears await break below 100-day SMA at $1,796Gold (XAU/USD) stays defensive around $1,830, sidelined of late, amid Friday’s Asian session. The yellow metal crossed 200-DMA for the first time since mid-July the previous day on the market’s risk-on mood. However, the escalating Delta covid variant fears and wait of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge challenge buyers afterward. Australia’s New South Wales (NSW) posted softer-than-previous daily infections, 172 versus 240, but the US marked the biggest one-day increase in cases since February. Further, Japan witnesses above 10,000 cases for the first time and stays ready to take more prefectures under virus-led emergency whereas the UK’s daily count of the COVID-19 eases but the seven-day average jumps 22%. It should be noted that the US inflation expectations recently jumped to the multi-day high and exerts additional pressure on the Fed to tame the reflation fears. Even so, downbeat Q2 GDP data and cooling house market figures seem to defend Jerome Powell and Company. Though, today’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for June, expected 3.7% YoY versus 3.4% prior, will be the key to follow as it becomes the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) key inflation barometer. Elsewhere, Reuters conveyed an upbeat progress report for US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending proposal. The news said, “The U.S. Senate on Thursday prepared to tackle the details of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill backed by President Joe Biden, with the possibility of weekend work looming after lawmakers agreed to advance the measure.” Amid these plays, the US Dollar Index (DXY) snaps a four-day downtrend to rebound from the monthly low while benefiting from the risk-off mood. However, the same weigh on the US 10-year Treasury yields, down two basis points (bps) to 1.249%, as well as stock futures by the press time. Other than the US data, gold traders will also pay close attention to the risk catalysts as the Fed has already spoken for itself. Technical analysis Despite providing a daily close beyond 200-DMA, backed by bullish MACD, gold prices failed to refresh monthly top, not to forget staying below 50% Fibonacci retracement of June’s fall. Given the metal’s previous pullback from the key $1,835 hurdle, coupled with the pre-US data cautious, gold traders should wait for a clear upside break of the stated resistance before targeting the $1,845 area comprising multiple levels marked since early May. It’s worth mentioning that the pullback moves also remain doubtful until declining back below the 200-DMA level of $1,820. Following that, $1,800 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1,790 should return to the chart. Gold: Daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/CAD is on the verge of an upside continuation and the following illustrates the confluence between the daily and hourly charts. USD/CAD daily char

USD/CAD bulls are seeking an upside correction to test old daily support.The hourly chart's price is shooting higher but a pullback could be on the cards. USD/CAD is on the verge of an upside continuation and the following illustrates the confluence between the daily and hourly charts.  USD/CAD daily chart The price is meeting a demand area near 1.2440.  At this juncture, an upside correction could be on the cards to test the prior lows and what would be expected to now turn to resistance near 1.2530.  The 61.8% Fibonacci is also located near there to offer confluence to target.  Hourly chart The bulls will be looking for a discount before engaging to take on the hourly resistance and higher highs. 

AUD/USD teases intraday low of 0.7384, down 0.10% on a day, amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair drops for the first time in thre

AUD/USD refreshes intraday low, snaps two-day recovery moves.Virus infections ease from multi-day top but policymakers stay concerned.Stock futures, US Treasury yields both portray risk-off mood.US GDP backed Fed’s refrain to discuss tapering, Core PCE Price Index eyed.AUD/USD teases intraday low of 0.7384, down 0.10% on a day, amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair drops for the first time in three days as market sentiment sours amid the coronavirus concerns. Although New South Wales (NSW) posted softer-than-previous daily infections, 172 versus 240, Aussie diplomats are worried over the Delta covid variant’s latest spread as the national tall stays around highest since August 2020. Also challenging the Australian policymakers is the public outrage versus the virus-led activity restrictions, which in turn pushed the NSW police to say, per ABC News, “Don't come into Sydney tomorrow to protest.” On a different page, US President Joe Biden pushed for vaccination to the White House staff or welcome routine tests after the US marked the biggest one-day increase in cases since February. Further, Japan witnesses above 10,000 cases for the first time and stays ready to take more prefectures under virus-led emergency whereas the UK’s daily count of the COVID-19 eases but the seven-day average jumps 22%. While the covid fears weigh on the market’s mood and put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar, downbeat data and stimulus optimism restrict the greenback’s latest bounce. The preliminary reading of the US Q2 GDP figures eased below 8.5% market consensus to 6.5% QoQ, versus 6.4% prior. However, the consumer spending details remain robust and suggest economic recovery. In addition to the GDP, upbeat weekly Jobless Claims and further softening of the housing data also convinced market players of further easy-money policies from the Fed. Additionally challenging the market bears are the updates over the US President Biden’s infrastructure spending talks in the Senate. “The U.S. Senate on Thursday prepared to tackle the details of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill backed by President Joe Biden, with the possibility of weekend work looming after lawmakers agreed to advance the measure,” said Reuters. It’s worth noting that Australia’s Q2 Producer Price Index (PPI) rose past 0.2% forecast and 0.4% prior to 0.7% QoQ whereas the Private Sector Credit for June also crossed 0.1% expectations and 0.4% previous readouts to 0.9% MoM. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop over 0.6% whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields slip 1.8 basis points (bps) to 1.25% by the press time. Given the risk-off mood, upbeat Aussie data may not help the AUD/USD regain upside momentum. However, US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for June, expected 3.7% YoY versus 3.4% prior, will be the key to follow. Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index June Preview: Bad will not be bad enough Technical analysis Failures to provide a daily closing beyond a one-month-old resistance line, near 0.7390, not to forget pullback from the 0.7400 threshold, keep AUD/USD sellers hopeful. Even if the quote crosses the 0.7400 round figure, the pair buyers remain cautious until witnessing a daily close beyond the 200-DMA level of 0.7600.  

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) up to 3.1% in June from previous 1.9%

Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.2%) in 2Q

Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) increased to 2.2% in 2Q from previous 0.2%

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in June: Actual (0.9%)

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4602 vs the estimated 6.4596 and the previous at 6.494

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4602 vs the estimated 6.4596 and the previous at 6.4942. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

EUR/JPY edges lower on Friday in the Asian trading hours. The pair opened higher following the previous day’s upside momentum. However, fell quickly t

EUR/JPY trades with minor losses on Friday in the Asian session.The Euro gains are limited on  ECB view and mixed economic data.Yen losses grounds on dismal economic data and a state of emergency.EUR/JPY edges lower on Friday in the Asian trading hours. The pair opened higher following the previous day’s upside momentum. However,  fell quickly to touch an intraday low  at 130.07 At the time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at 130.09, down 0.02% for the day. The European Central Bank’s (ECB released its strategic review meeting account which stated that the price stability was best maintained by aiming for a 2% inflation target. In the meantime, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned about a fresh third wave of the COVOID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy. The shared currency came under pressure following the comments.
 
The Consumer Confidence Sentiment came at -4.4 in July from the previous month -3.3 readings. The Eurozone Service Sentiment rose to a 14-year peak in July at 19.3, but below the market estimates of 19.9. It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,377, with  0.77% losses. On the other hand, the Japanese yen manages to hold the ground on its safe haven appeal amid rising coronavirus delta variants.   On the economic data front, Retail Sales grew at 0.1% in July, below the market expectations of 0.2%. The Jobless Rate unexpectedly edged down at 2.9%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said that the central bank might be able to begin a debate on a strategy for hitting the price target near the end of 2021.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced a state of emergency in Tokyo, to curb rising coronavirus infections. As for now, traders await the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Rate and Inflation Rate to gauge the market sentiment. EUR/JPY additional levels
 

US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rallied to the fresh hi

US inflation expectations, as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rallied to the fresh high since June 02 while flashing a 2.43% mark on Thursday. In doing so, the risk barometer rejected the early week’s pullback while extending the recovery moves from July 19. The run-up in inflation expectations could be linked to the US Q2 GDP data that recently justified the Fed’s cautious approach before announcing the taper. The first reading of the second-quarter growth figures eased below 8.5% market consensus to 6.5% QoQ, versus 6.4% prior. However, the consumer spending details remain robust and suggest economic recovery. In addition to the GDP, upbeat weekly Jobless Claims and further softening of the housing data also convinced market players of further easy-money policies from the Fed. It should be noted, however, that the coronavirus woes and the US data may tax the inflation expectations going forward, by way of weighing on the market’s sentiment. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields followed the inflation expectations to the north the previous day before recently consolidating gains around 1.25%, down 1.8 basis points (bps). Although the Fed seems firm in its tapering commitments, today’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for June will be the key after the latest easing of GDP and housing figures. Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index June Preview: Bad will not be bad enough

USD/CHF picks up bids inside a less than 10-pip area surrounding 0.9050 during Friday’s Asian session. The major currency pair dropped to the lowest s

USD/CHF holds lower ground after breaking the key moving average.Bearish MACD, sustained break of 200-DMA favor sellers.61.8% Fibonacci retracement offers immediate support, mid-July low adds to the upside filters.USD/CHF picks up bids inside a less than 10-pip area surrounding 0.9050 during Friday’s Asian session. The major currency pair dropped to the lowest since June 16 the previous day after breaking 200-DMA. Given the bearish MACD and a daily close below the key moving average, sellers are likely to keep the reins until witnessing a clear upside break of 90.75 comprising 200-DMA. Even so, 50% Fibonacci retracement of January-April upside and July 15 low, around 0.9115, restricts the quote’s short-term advances. If at all the USD/CHF bulls dominate past 0.9115, a downward sloping trend line from April, near 0.9210 will be a tough challenge for them. Meanwhile, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9030 and the 0.9000 threshold could please the USD/CHF bears during the pair’s further downside. However, an ascending support line from January, near 0.8980, should become a rest area for the sellers. USD/CHF: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

At the time of writing is trading at $25.50 and flat on the day, stuck at an end of month tight range of $25.49 and $25.50. The price has pulled back

Silver is attempting to recover but there is a long way to go until the bulls will be in the clear. The US dollar is down, but there are prospects of a recovery. At the time of writing is trading at $25.50 and flat on the day, stuck at an end of month tight range of $25.49 and $25.50.  The price has pulled back from the overnight highs of $25.80 made earlier in the New York session that it achieved after rallying from a low of $24.96. Since the Federal Reserve, investors have continued to move out of the US dollar, likely squaring long positions at month-end on the back of a more dovish Fed chair. The US dollar on Thursday was shot down all the way down into a strong area of liquidity as measured against a basket of six other currencies, DXY. The index was 0.4% lower at 91.85, its lowest since June 28.  The US dollar is now sitting at a discount for the bullish of bulls after the weaker hands were shaken out.  Bulls will recognise the divergence between central banks and how the greenback is favoured at times of extreme risk aversion in comparison to its counterparts. This leaves a low bar for a correction from the current demand area below 92.00: As the Fed has indicated, there are only a few more months of crisis-era QE left for markets. Real rates would be expected to rise on the back of nomial yields moving higher over time as investors once again begin to factor in a rate hike from the Fed. Silver technical analysis A break above the 61.8% Fibo near 25.90 of the weekly bearish impulse will leave the bulls in good stead for higher highs. Bulls will be looking for a break to back above the weekly counter trendline and within the bullish trend again.

US Dollar Index (DXY) edges lower around 91.90, down 0.02% intraday, after a four-day south-run amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the greenbac

DXY stays pressured around monthly low, prints five-day downtrend.US Q2 GDP backs the Fed’s resistance to offer tapering hints.Covid woes escalate in Australia, Japan but mark mixed signals in the West.US second-tier data, risk catalysts will provide intermediate direction.US Dollar Index (DXY) edges lower around 91.90, down 0.02% intraday, after a four-day south-run amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the greenback gauge is on the way to post the biggest weekly losses since May 03 as market sentiment backs the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest refrain to discuss anything more about monetary policy tightening. Having witnessed lesser-than-forecast Q2 US GDP prints, traders finally understood why Fed Chairman Jerome Powell asked for few more meetings before discussing the taper. The first reading of the US Q2 GDP eased below 8.5% market consensus to 6.5%, versus 6.4% prior, on the quarterly basis. However, the consumer spending details remain robust and suggest economic recovery. In addition to the growth figures, upbeat weekly Jobless Claims and further softening of the housing data also convinced market players of further easy-money policies from the Fed, which in turn dragged the DXY. Also exerting downside pressure on the US Dollar Index could be the ongoing talks of US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan in the Senate. It’s worth mentioning though that US President Biden’s latest push for the vaccination to the White House workers and covid jitters in Australia and Japan put a floor under the greenback. That said, Australia registers the highest daily infections since August while Japan marks over 10,000 cases a day for the first time and stays ready to take more prefectures under the emergency alert. Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields drop 1.3 basis points (bps) while S&P 500 Futures drop half a percent by the press time. Looking forward, global traders may take a breather but Eurozone GDP and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index data may entertain the bears. Read: US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index June Preview: Bad will not be bad enough Technical analysis A clear downside break of the 92.00 horizontal support directs US Dollar Index towards 91.55–50 key rest area comprising late June’s low, 50-DMA and 100-DMA.  

AUD underperformed overnight in comparison to its rival commodity currencies, reflecting the concerns around the Sydney lockdown and the implications

AUD/NZD bears are lurking above critical support. A break of the near-term support would be significant.  AUD underperformed overnight in comparison to its rival commodity currencies, reflecting the concerns around the Sydney lockdown and the implications this will have for next week’s Reserve Bank of America meeting. This offers a downside prospect for the bears in what is a longer-term bearish environment.  The following is a top-down analysis that arrives at a bearish conclusion for the days ahead. Weekly chart From a weekly perspective, the price has already been rejected from a firm resistance area and high up on the Fibonacci scale near the 1.0620/50s. Daily chart From a daily perspective, the bearish engulfing is setting the stage for further downside.  4-hour chart   Ideally, the market would move a touch higher for additional liquidity before embarking on a grand test below the longer-term support structure. 

WTI refreshes intraday low near $73.00, down 0.15% on a day, amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the energy benchmark eases from the highest sin

WTI consolidates weekly gains near highest levels in 12 days.Bulls keep reigns until the quote stays beyond 200-DMA, three-week-old trend line confluence.Weekly support line adds to the downside filters, mid-month high lures buyers.WTI refreshes intraday low near $73.00, down 0.15% on a day, amid Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the energy benchmark eases from the highest since July 14, probed the previous day after crossing a convergence of 200-DMA and multi-day-old resistance line, now support surrounding $72.30-25. Given the overbought RSI conditions, the quote may witness further pullback towards $72.30-25 support but any further downside will become a concern for the oil buyers. Even so, an ascending support line from July 22, near $71.60, offers an extra check before recalling the WTI bears targeting the $70.00 round figure and $69.70 level comprising July 22 low. Meanwhile, fresh upside may wait for a clear break of $73.40 to aim for July 13 peak surrounding $74.90 and the $75.00 threshold. However, any further upside won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly high near $76.40. WTI: Four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 22.6% (June) vs 21.1%

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (5%) in June: Actual (6.2%)

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) up to 3.1% in May from previous -0.4%

Japan Large Retailer Sales down to -2.2% in June from previous 6%

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in May

USD/CAD extends the previous session’s losses in the early Asian session. The pair hovers in a very narrow trade band with a negative outlook. At the

USD/CAD prints losses for the previous two sessions consecutively.US dollar tests the one-month low on disappointing economic data.The Canadian dollar gains on the BOC reaffirmation to control inflation.USD/CAD extends the previous session’s losses in the early Asian session. The pair hovers in a very narrow trade band with a negative outlook. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2443, down 0.01% for the day. The Canadian dollar rose against the greenback after the Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem said that “ the cost of living will not rise out of control as the economy reopens from the COVID-19 pandemic” in a Financial post. The optimism was also boosted by the higher crude oil prices that traded at a two-week high above $73.00 amid a larger than expected inventory draw and expectations of stronger demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback performance against its six major rivals stands lower at 91.88%. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came at 6.5% in Q2, much below the market forecasts of 8.5%. The rapid spread of the Delta variant, supply-chain disruptions, and shortage of labor were expected to weigh on the growth prospects of the rest of the year. As for now, investors await the slew of economic data;  the Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US Personal Spending and Income data, and Personal Price Expenditure Index (PCE) data to take fresh trading impetus. USD/CAD additional levels  
 

GBP/JPY justifies the previous day’s Doji candlestick formation with a pullback to 152.85 ahead of Friday’s Tokyo open. The cross-currency pair jumped

GBP/JPY steps back from 13-day top, under pressure of late.UK, EU warned over NI protocol deadlock even as policymakers brace for further talks.UK’s daily infections rise for second day but weekly count falls 22%, Japan braces to take more prefectures under emergency.GBP/JPY justifies the previous day’s Doji candlestick formation with a pullback to 152.85 ahead of Friday’s Tokyo open. The cross-currency pair jumped to the highest since July 13 on Thursday after Brexit optimism and weaker yen favored bulls. However, fresh chatters over Brexit and coronavirus tames the prior risk-on mood. “The UK and EU have both taken a ‘fundamentally flawed’ approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, a House of Lords committee has concluded,” said the BBC. Before that, the British and European Union (EU) policymakers were optimistic over holding further negotiations to tackle the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol issue. Elsewhere, Britain’s 31,117 daily coronavirus cases mark the second day of increase but fall 22% during the last seven days. Alternatively, Japan’s covid numbers cross the 10,000 mark for the first time and push the policymakers to re-think emergencies in more prefectures. Japan’s Kyodo News quotes anonymous government sources in this regard while saying, “The government is planning to add three prefectures neighboring Tokyo, as well as Osaka Prefecture, to areas under the COVID-19 state of emergency amid a resurgence of the coronavirus.” On a different page, downbeat US data backed the market’s hope for further stimulus, favoring the risk-on mood. Also backing the optimism is the current talks over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan in the American Senate. Amid these lays, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.35% after rising around half a percent to refresh the record top on Wall Street. Looking forward, Japan’s preliminary reading of June’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales for May can entertain the pair traders. However, qualitative catalysts are more important for fresh direction, likely towards the south. Technical analysis A Doji on the daily chart below 50-DMA, near 153.55, suggests further pullback of GBP/JPY. However, 100-DMA tests intraday sellers around 52.60.  

Japan Unemployment Rate came in at 2.9% below forecasts (3%) in June

Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio above forecasts (1.1) in June: Actual (1.13)

The intense selling pressure in the US Dollar keeps USD/JPY edgy in the Asian session on Friday. The pair slips below 109.50 level and looks to extend

USD/JPY extends the previous session’s losses on Friday in the initial Asian trading session.US Dollar Index hits one-month low on disappointing data.The Japanese Yen gains on its safe haven appeal despite a pessimistic economic outlook.The intense selling pressure in the US Dollar keeps  USD/JPY edgy in the Asian session on Friday. The pair slips below 109.50 level and looks to extend the losses further on the weakness in the greenback. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 109.45, down 0.01% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against its six major rivals fell below the 92.0 mark to its lowest level in the previous four weeks. The downbeat US economic data echos the narrative of the dovish Fed’s outlook. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came against the market expectations. The GDP stood at 6.5% in Q2 well below the market expectations of 8.4%.
The Initial Jobless Claims fell less than anticipated to 400K. On the other hand, the Japanese yen held the ground on its safe haven appeal as the USD valuations reduced on the disappointing data. It is worth noting that, S&P 500 Futures are trading at 4,396 with 0.36% losses for the day.  As for now, investors wait for the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, and the Japanese Unemployment Rate to gauge the market sentiment. USD/JPY additional levels
 

South Korea Service Sector Output up to 1.6% in June from previous -0.2%

South Korea Industrial Output Growth rose from previous -0.7% to 2.2% in June

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) dipped from previous 15.6% to 11.9% in June

GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3970 amid early Asian session trading on Friday, after renewing the multi-day tops the previous day. The cable pair rose past

GBP/USD edges higher after refreshing five-top, also crossed 100-DMA.Multiple levels marked since March challenge bulls despite upbeat RSI, Momentum.July 12 top adds to the immediate support, early July low can lure buyers past 1.4010.GBP/USD seesaws around 1.3970 amid early Asian session trading on Friday, after renewing the multi-day tops the previous day. The cable pair rose past 100-DMA for the first time since June 23 on Thursday amid stronger RSI and Momentum lines. However, a 20-week-old horizontal area surrounding 1.4005–10 becomes the key hurdle to the pair’s further upside, a break of which needs strong catalysts. Given the Momentum line’s recent downtick, GBP/USD prices may witness a pullback towards 100-DMA retest, around 1.3920 by the press time. Though, early July’s wing high near 1.3910 and the 1.3900 threshold could test the sellers afterward. Should the quote remains weak past 1.3900, the 200-DMA and July 02 lows surrounding 1.3730 will be in focus. On the contrary, a successful upside clearance of 1.4010 enables the GBP/USD bulls to aim for the 1.4100 figures but multiple lows marked since mid-may could test the pair’s further rise. In a case where the pair rallies past 1.4100, the 1.4190 and the yearly top near 1.4250 should lure the buyers. GBP/USD: Daily chart Trend: Bullish  

New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) climbed from previous -2.8% to 3.8% in June

New Zealand ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 113.1 in July from previous 114.1

AUD/JPY edges lower despite the recent pick-up around 81.00 during the early Asian session on Friday. The cross-currency pair stepped back from the 20

AUD/JPY remains pressured, on the way to post fifth weekly loss.Virus updates battle risk-on mood, stimulus headlines to confuse traders.Australia infections jumped to August high, Japan plans to add more prefectures for emergency.Second-tier Japan, Aussie data and risk catalysts will be the key.AUD/JPY edges lower despite the recent pick-up around 81.00 during the early Asian session on Friday. The cross-currency pair stepped back from the 200-DMA the previous day after market sentiment improved but the covid updates from Australia and Japan came out bleak. Also weighing on the pair could be the mixed data from Tokyo and Canberra. With Sydney’s infections jumping back to March 2020 levels, the national count rallies to the highest since August 2020, forcing the government to take tough measures to contain the local infections. On the other hand, Japan’s covid numbers cross the 10,000 mark for the first time and push the policymakers to re-think emergencies in more prefectures. Japan’s Kyodo News quotes anonymous government sources in this regard while saying, “The government is planning to add three prefectures neighboring Tokyo, as well as Osaka Prefecture, to areas under the COVID-19 state of emergency amid a resurgence of the coronavirus.” Furthermore, the US traces unvaccinated people as it cautiously eases the activity restrictions. It should be noted that the downbeat US data and positive performance of equities portrayed the market optimism on Thursday. Behind the moves could be soft US numbers backing the need for further stimulus and infrastructure spending talks in the American Senate. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses by the press time even as its Wall Street counterpart refreshed record top before closing on the positive side. Moving on, Japan’s preliminary reading of June’s Industrial Production and Australia’s Private Sector Credit, as well as Producer Price Index (PPI), data may offer intermediate direction to AUD/JPY prices. However, risk appetite related headlines will be more important to follow for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Failures to cross 200-DMA and a descending resistance line from July 13 highlight the AUD/JPY pair’s underlying weakness. However, the bears remain unconvinced before the pair refreshes monthly low under 79.84.  

EUR/USD bulls brace for breaking the immediate trading range surrounding 1.1900, also refresh the highest levels since July 06, during early Friday mo

EUR/USD edges higher around three-week top after four-day uptrend.Sustained break of six-week-long resistance line, bullish MACD favor buyers.Convergence of 200-day EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement guards immediate upside.EUR/USD bulls brace for breaking the immediate trading range surrounding 1.1900, also refresh the highest levels since July 06, during early Friday morning in Asia. In doing so, the major currency pair stays positive for the fifth day in a row while keeping the previous day’s upside break of a descending trend line from June 17. With the bullish MACD signals backing the resistance breakout, now support, EUR/USD buyers are on the way to battle joint of 200-day EMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of late March-May upside, near 1.1920. However, a daily closing beyond 1.1920 could propel the quote’s north-run targeting the 1.1985 hurdle, comprising May’s low and 50% Fibo. Meanwhile, pullback moves should stay beyond the previous resistance line near 1.1850 to reject short-term EUR/USD bears. Following that, the monthly low and the yearly bottom, respectively around 1.1750 and 1.1700 will be in focus. EUR/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Wall Street regains upside momentum, though mildly, on Thursday after the key US statistics justify the Fed’s little inclination to taper and keep the

US equity benchmarks post mild gains as US data backed Fed’s resistance to taper.US Q2 GDP missed strong forecasts but consumption details are firmer, housing cools.Amazon flashed mixed earnings but Ford, Yum Brands and Align Technologies pleased bulls.Wall Street regains upside momentum, though mildly, on Thursday after the key US statistics justify the Fed’s little inclination to taper and keep the easy money flowing. Also backing the mood could be the upbeat earnings and chatters over President Joe Biden’s infrastructures spending bill. The preliminary readings of the US Q2 GDP slipped beneath 8.5% QoQ forecasts to 6.5%, versus 6.4% prior, but consumer spending remained very strong. Further, Pending Home Sales for June eased and weekly Jobless Claims also jumped, suggesting the need for further stimulus even as the economy is improving. Elsewhere, US Senators are haggling over the $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan after allowing it to be discussed in the House, paving way for the much-awaited stimulus following multiple days of a delay. Against this backdrop, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) adds to 150 points of 0.44% to end the day around 35,084 whereas the S&P 500 prints 0.42% daily gains to mark 4,419 as of Thursday’s closing, after refreshing the record top with 4,429.97 level. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gains 0.11% intraday, up 15.7 points, to 14,778 by the press time. It’s worth noting that the equity benchmarks ignored a jump in the US Treasury yields to return to gains on Thursday. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields gained three basis points to 1.266% by the end of the North American session. Talking about earnings, Amazon missed revenue targets and joined PayPal to drop but Ford Motor Company, KFC owner Yum Brands and Align Technologies kept the market’s overall optimism intact. It’s worth noting the shares of Tesla and Apple helped Nasdaq to remain mildly bid. Looking forward, second-tier US data may offer little entertainment to the US share traders on Friday but talks over the infrastructures spending and covid restrictions could be the catalysts to follow. Read: Forex Today: Persistent pressure on the dollar

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI below forecasts (100) in August: Actual (96)

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