هشدار ریسک: معامله با ریسک همراه است و سرمایه شما در معرض خطر است. Exinity Limited تحت نظارت FSC موریس تنظیم شده است.
هشدار ریسک: معامله با ریسک همراه است و سرمایه شما در معرض خطر است. Exinity Limited تحت نظارت FSC موریس تنظیم شده است.

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جمعه، 27 نوامبر، 2020

France Consumer Spending (MoM) came in at 3.7%, above forecasts (2.9%) in October

France Producer Prices (MoM): 0.1% (October) vs previous 0.2%

Writing off the public debt the European Central Bank (ECB) bought during the coronavirus could be very dangerous, the Governing Council member and Ba

Writing off the public debt the European Central Bank (ECB) bought during the coronavirus pandemic could be very dangerous, the Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor warned in an interview with Ouest France newspaper on Friday. Key quotes “To consider debt cancellation would be a very dangerous path.” “When the euro was introduced, France, like the other states, undertook by Treaty to always reimburse the central bank. It is an absolutely essential pact of confidence.”   more to come ...

Gold is edging lower but holding above $1,800. US dollar weakness and vaccine doubts offer support to the yellow metal while technical chart warrants

Gold is edging lower but holding above $1,800. US dollar weakness and vaccine doubts offer support to the yellow metal while technical chart warrants caution for the XAU/USD bulls, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. See: Gold to trade around $2,100 next year – ANZ Gold to move above $2,000 over the next six months – TDS Gold to end the uptrend on a break of critical $1,800 support – ABN Amro Gold to rally towards $2300 in 2021 – CIBC Key quotes “The risk-off mood dominates after AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine, which showed 90% efficacy, came under intense scrutiny. The upside in the precious metal remains elusive despite the tepid market mood and broad US dollar’s weakness. Market conditions are likely to remain thin, as the US markets operate partially amid the Thanksgiving holiday mood, leaving gold bulls vulnerable.” “Closing below the rising trendline support at $1807 on the candle would confirm the pattern breakdown, triggering a break below the critical $1800 support. The next relevant support is seen at the May 18 high of $1765.”  “The Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends lower below the 50.0 level, allowing room for more declines.” “he bearish 21-simple moving average (SMA) o at $1812 offers immediate resistance, above which the intermittent top at $1818 could be retested. Further up, the 50-SMA and the long-held support now resistance at $1850 will be the level to beat for the bulls.”  

The USD/JPY pair remained depressed through the Asian session and dropped to four-day lows, around the 103.90 region, albeit recovered few pips therea

USD/JPY witnessed some follow-through selling for the second straight session on Friday.A softer tone surrounding the USD was seen as a key factor exerting pressure on the pair.COVID-19 vaccine optimism undermined the safe-haven JPY and helped limit the downside.The USD/JPY pair remained depressed through the Asian session and dropped to four-day lows, around the 103.90 region, albeit recovered few pips thereafter. The pair extended this week's retracement slide from the 104.75 region and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Friday. The downfall also marked the third day of a negative move in the previous four and was sponsored by the prevalent selling bias surrounding the US dollar. Concerns about the economic fallout from the imposition of new COVID-19 restrictions in several US states resurfaced after an unexpected rise in the US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims. This, in turn, revived hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus from the incoming Biden administrations and continued weighing on the buck. Apart from this, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields exerted some additional pressure on the greenback and further contributed to the USD/JPY pair's ongoing slide. However, the optimism over a vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and helped limit losses. The USD/JPY pair has managed to rebound around 15 pips from intraday swing lows, though any meaningful recovery still seems elusive. Hence, any subsequent positive move might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. Technical levels to watch  

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 27: Markets are edging higher and the dollar is on the back foot as some American traders are set to

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 27: Markets are edging higher and the dollar is on the back foot as some American traders are set to return from the Thanksgiving holiday. Optimism about a vaccine and the US transition is outweighing the grim virus reality and Brexit uncertainty.  President Donald Trump said that he will leave the White House if President-elect Joe Biden wins the Electoral College. His comments in a press conference provide additional relief to markets, despite repeated unsubstantiated claims of fraud. US coronavirus cases continue rising at a rapid pace as many traveled for the holiday. Hospitalizations hit a new high above 90,000. Vaccine: Doubts about the AstraZeneca/University of Oxford immunization scheme have become more prominent. The more efficient dosage regimen was not tested on people older than 55. Nevertheless, British authorities intend to move forward with approving the vaccine. Additional information is awaited. The US regulator is also examining various inoculations for approval.EUR/USD is edging higher, shrugging off Germany's failure to turn the tide on COVID-19, hitting one million cases and contrary to other countries in the old continent. The lockdown has been extended up to December 20. Fabio Panetta, a member of the European Central Bank, said that stimulus has been insufficient. The ECB is set to expand its bond-buying scheme next month.Brexit: Chief EU Negotiator Michel Barnier is traveling to London for fresh talks. While the trip is a positive sign, disagreements about fisheries and governance persist. Recent reports suggest talks are "completely stuck" and more headlines are likely during the day. GBP/USD trades below 1.34. China's industrial profits jumped by 28.2% in October, a leap in comparison to 10.1% in September. The world's second-largest economy's figures are also supporting markets. Gold is edging lower but holding above $1,800. WTI Crude Oil is hovering around $45. Cryptocurrencies are bouncing after a sharp downside correction, with Bitcoin trading above $17,000 once again. US markets will close at 18:00 GMT, three hours earlier than usual on the day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday.     

China’s manufacturing sector expansion is likely to have quickened in November, the latest Reuters poll of 22 economists showed Friday. Key findings “

China’s manufacturing sector expansion is likely to have quickened in November, the latest Reuters poll of 22 economists showed Friday.   Key findings “The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is expected to rise slightly to 51.5 in November from October’s 51.4. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity on a monthly basis.” “The Chinese economy is expected to expand around 2% for the full year - the weakest in over three decades. “ “The private Caixin manufacturing PMI will be published on Dec. 1. Analysts expect that headline reading will dip to 53.5 from a near-decade high of 53.6 in October.” Earlier today, China’s industrial profits rose in October for a sixth consecutive month and at their quickest pace since early 2017, arriving at 28.2% YoY. Related readsUSD/CNY Price Analysis: Yuan eyes worst weekly loss in two monthAUD/USD jumps to fresh multi-week tops, around 0.7380 region

The AUD/USD pair edged higher through the Asian session on Friday and shot to the highest level since early September, around the 0.7380-85 region in

AUD/USD caught some fresh bids on Friday and broke out of the overnight trading range.COVID-19 vaccine optimism undermined the safe-haven USD and remained supportive.Move beyond the 0.7365-70 region might have already set the stage for additional gains.The AUD/USD pair edged higher through the Asian session on Friday and shot to the highest level since early September, around the 0.7380-85 region in the last hour. The pair caught some fresh bids on the last day of the week and finally broke out of its overnight consolidative trading range amid a softer tone surrounding the US dollar. The optimism over the progress on remedies for the highly contagious coronavirus disease continued undermining the safe-haven greenback. Meanwhile, concerns about the economic fallout from the continuous surge in COVID-19 cases resurfaced after Wednesday's unimpressive US macro data. The unexpected jump in the US Initial Jobless Claims raised expectation for more fiscal stimulus from the incoming Biden administration and exerted some additional pressure on the buck. The USD was further pressured by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. This, along with the prevalent upbeat market mood, further benefitted the perceived riskier Australian dollar and pushed the AUD/USD pair beyond the 0.7365-70 supply zone. This, in turn, might have already set the stage for additional near-term gains. Hence, some follow-through strength beyond the 0.7400 mark, towards retesting September monthly swing around the 0.7415 region, now looks a distinct possibility. In the absence of any relevant macro data from the US, the broader risk sentiment will influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Norway Retail Sales registered at 1.2% above expectations (0%) in October

Germany Import Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-4.1%) in October: Actual (-3.9%)

Germany Import Price Index (MoM): 0.3% (October)

Denmark Industrial Outlook down to -10 in November from previous -7

Scotland's Sturgeon says she wants to hold a second independence referendum as soon as next year, per The Times. more to come ...

Scotland's Sturgeon says she wants to hold a second independence referendum as soon as next year, per The Times.  more to come ...

Turkey Economic Confidence Index declined to 89.5 in November from previous 92.8

GBP/USD holds the higher ground heading into the European open, with the bulls looking to test the 1.3400 level amid favorable technicals and broad-ba

GBP/USD’s path of least resistance appears to the upside.The spot charted a bull pennant on the 15-minutes chart.Bullish crossover and RSI add credence to the advance. GBP/USD holds the higher ground heading into the European open, with the bulls looking to test the 1.3400 level amid favorable technicals and broad-based US dollar weakness. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot is consolidating the upside following a breakout from a bull pennant confirmed on the 15-minutes chart. The measured target is aligned at 1.3396. The upside momentum gained traction after the 50-simple moving average (SMA) on the said timeframe crossed the 100-SMA from below, charting a bullish crossover. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south but trades will above the 50.00 level, suggesting that the upside bias still remains intact. The immediate support at 1.3367 could likely limit the retracement. Although a close below that level could invalidate the bullish formation. The next support is then seen at the horizontal 200-SMA at 1.3363. The psychological level of 1.3350 could challenge the bears’ commitment. GBP/USD: 15-minutes chart GBP/USD: Additional levels  

A move above 1.3400 remains on the cards amidst the firm momemtun in Cable, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highli

A move above 1.3400 remains on the cards amidst the firm momemtun in Cable, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘upward momentum has improved’ and that ‘a break of 1.3400 could lead to further gains towards 1.3440’. Our view did not materialize as GBP rose to a high of 1.3399 before retreating quickly. Upward pressure has more or less dissipated and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. Overall, GBP is expected to trade sideways, expected to be within a 1.3315/1.3390 range.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a positive view in GBP since last Tuesday (17 Nov, spot at 1.3210). After GBP retreated from a high of 1.3396, we highlighted on Tuesday (24 Nov, spot at 1.3325) that ‘there is chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to push above 1.3400’. GBP rose to 1.3394 yesterday before closing at 1.3386 (+0.19%). Momentum is beginning to improve and a break of 1.3400 would shift the focus to the yearto-date high at 1.3481 (there is a minor resistance at 1.3440). All in, the outlook for GBP is deemed as positive as long as it does not move below 1.3280 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3250).”

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well under pressure and trades at shouting distance from the 2020 lows near 91.70. US Do

DXY remains under pressure below the 92.00 mark.Pandemic concerns remain in the centre of the debate.No data releases in the US docket on Friday’s shortened session.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well under pressure and trades at shouting distance from the 2020 lows near 91.70. US Dollar Index targets the YTD lows The index remains on the way to close the month with important losses and opens the door to further decline in case the 2020 lows in the 91.75/70 band (September 1) are cleared. In the meantime, the rapid pick-up in infected cases in past hours eclipsed the optimism coming from positive news regarding effective vaccines, although market participants continue to favour the risk complex in detriment of the safe haven space. US markets will return to the normal activity following the Thanksgiving Day holiday, albeit in a shortened session. All the attention, however, is expected to gyrate around the “Black Friday” and the performance of retailers.  What to look for around USD DXY remains on the defensive and does not rule out a visit to the 2020 lows near 91.70 in the short-term horizon. The better mood in the risk-associated space remains underpinned by a clearer US political scenario in combination with auspicious vaccine news and better growth prospects. Furthermore, hopes of extra fiscal stimulus have re-emerged and along with the “lower for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve is seen keeping the buck under extra pressure for the time being. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is retreating 0.12% at 91.88 and faces the next support at 91.84 (monthly low Nov.26) followed by 91.74 (2020 low Sep.1) and then 89.22 (monthly low Apr. 2018). On the other hand, a breakout of 93.20 (weekly high Nov.11) would open the door to 93.39 (100-day SMA) and finally 94.30 (monthly high Nov.4).

Further comments crossing the wires from the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta’s interview with the Portuguese newspap

Further comments crossing the wires from the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta’s interview with the Portuguese newspaper Expresso.  Panetta said: “We should expect the Governing Council to reassess the macroeconomic outlook.” Additional quotes And also recalibrate its measures accordingly. Outlook for inflation has clearly deteriorated. It is clear that our stimulus so far has not been sufficient. In spring, we reacted quickly and we should do so again. Need to eliminate doubts about our determination to preserve price stability. We have firepower, we have instruments that we can calibrate.

FX option expiries for Nov 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1850 1.0bn 1.1925 550m - GBP/USD: G

FX option expiries for Nov 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1850 1.0bn 1.1925 550m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.3400 388m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts          104.00 390m 104.50 366m 104.70 455m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7325 531m 0.7330 764m - USD/CAD: USD amounts         1.3000 600m  - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6950 676m 0.7050 865m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8900 386m 

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD is seen firm and is expected to edge higher in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD is seen firm and is expected to edge higher in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that ‘there is room for EUR to test 1.1955 first before a pullback can be expected’. Our expectation did not quite turn out as EUR retreated after touching a high of 1.1940. The build-up in momentum has waned considerably and EUR is unlikely to strengthen for today. Overall, the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and EUR is likely to trade within a 1.1880/1.1935 range.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (24 Nov, spot at 1.1845), we held the view that EUR ‘could trade sideways for a period of time and only a break out of the expected 1.1760/1.1920 range would indicate the start of a more sustained directional movement’. While EUR cracked the solid resistance at 1.1920 yesterday, the subsequent price actions were surprisingly muted (high of 1.1929). That said, further EUR strength is expected even though any advance could be slow going and the next resistance at 1.1980 may not come into the picture so soon. On the downside, a break of 1.1840 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the risk for further EUR strength has dissipated.”

USD/INR takes offers around 73.76, down 0.07% intraday, during the initial hours of Friday’s Indian trading. The rupee pair formed a bullish candlesti

USD/INR remains on the back foot below 74.00.Bearish MACD, sustained trading below the key SMA favor sellers.Two-week-old falling trend line adds a filter to the north, 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement lures the bears.USD/INR takes offers around 73.76, down 0.07% intraday, during the initial hours of Friday’s Indian trading. The rupee pair formed a bullish candlestick formation the previous day but couldn’t cross 50-day SMA on a daily closing. The same took clues from bearish MACD to trigger fresh downside attacking the weekly low of 73.75 while also eyeing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of September-November upside, at 73.60. It should, however, be noted that multiple supports around 73.50 and 73.30 challenge the USD/INR sellers past-73.60, if not then a three-month-old support line near 73.20 will gain the market’s attention. In a case where the pair crosses 50-day SMA resistance, currently around 73.85, a descending trend line from November 13, at 74.07 now, will be the key to watch. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Gold continues to feel the pull of gravity after facing rejection at $1818 for two consecutive days. Despite the uncertainty about the coronavirus vac

Gold continues to feel the pull of gravity after facing rejection at $1818 for two consecutive days. Despite the uncertainty about the coronavirus vaccine development and continued escalation in the infections globally, gold remains vulnerable amid thin trading conditions on Black Friday/ Expectations that the coronavirus vaccines will prompt a swifter global economic recovery in 2021 continue to bode ill for the anti-risk gold. Let’s see how gold is positioned on the charts. Gold: Key resistances and supports The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the XAU/USD pair is likely to find an immediate reprieve at $1805, which is the confluence of the Pivot Point one-week S3 and the previous day low. The next critical cushion awaits at $1800, where the SMA200 one-day coincides with the Bollinger Band one-day Lower. The bears will then challenge the $1796 cap, the intersection of the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day and Bollinger Band four-hour Lower. Further south, the level to beat for the bears is the Pivot Point one-day S3 at $1789. On the flip side, strong resistance awaits at $1811, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, SMA10 four-hour and SMA50 one-hour. The $1818 barrier (Pivot Point one-month S2) will guard the further upside. Acceptance above the latter is critical to reviving the recovery momentum towards $1824, the meeting point of the Pivot Point one-day R2 and SMA100 one-hour. Here is how it looks on the tool About Confluence Detector The TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

According to data source Reuters, the one-month risk reversal on NZD/USD, which measures the spread between the value of calls (bullish bets) and puts

According to data source Reuters, the one-month risk reversal on NZD/USD, which measures the spread between the value of calls (bullish bets) and puts (bearish bets), has risen to -0.85, the highest level since Sept. 3, having bottomed at -2 on Nov. 3.  The recovery to multi-month highs indicates a weakening of demand for put options alongside NZD/USD's four-week rally to 29-month highs above 0.70.   

GBP/JPY bears attack 139.00, currently down 0.20% on a day near 138.95, during the pre-UK open trading on Friday. The pair surged to the highest since

GBP/JPY extends the previous day’s losses from 12-day top.Downside break of short-term moving average (MA) joins receding RSI.Monthly peak adds to the upside barrier beyond the weekly top.GBP/JPY bears attack 139.00, currently down 0.20% on a day near 138.95, during the pre-UK open trading on Friday. The pair surged to the highest since November 11, before declining from 139.85, the previous day. The declines recently broke 5-day SMA (DMA) support, amid a downward sloping RSI line, which in turn suggests the quote’s further weakness towards an ascending trend line from October 30, at 138.35 now. If at all the bears dominate past-138.35, the 138.00 round-figure and November 19 low near 137.20 will become their favorites. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of a 5-day SMA level near 139.40 will not only need to cross the weekly top surrounding 139.85 but also the 140.00 threshold to aim for the monthly top near 140.35. It should be noted that the pair’s sustained run-up beyond will not hesitate to challenge 141.00 whereas any further rise may look towards the yearly top near 142.70. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

If these losses are held through Friday's close, it will be the biggest weekly decline since the third week of September. China's industrial profits r

Yuan trades 0.27% lower on the week as dollar draws month-end bids. USD/CNY looks oversold as per weekly chart indicators.The Chinese yuan (CNY) is currently trading at 6.5785 per US dollar, representing a 0.27% drop for the week.  If these losses are held through Friday's close, it will be the biggest weekly decline since the third week of September.  China's industrial profits rose for the sixth straight month in October, and at the fastest rate in nine years, data released early Friday showed. So far, however, the data has failed to put a bid under the yuan. The greenback is reportedly benefitting from the month-end corporate demand for the US dollar.  Besides, the USD/CNY pair looks oversold, according to the below-30 reading on the 14-week Relative Strength Index. As such, a corrective bounce could be seen in the next couple of weeks.  Weekly chartTrend: Oversold Technical levels  

GBP/USD stays mildly bid, currently up 0.10% to 1.3370, while heading into Friday’s London open. Disappointment over AstraZeneca’s extra trials and Br

GBP/USD keeps late-Thursday’s recovery moves, nears intraday high.British government pushes MHRA for temporary supply of AstraZeneca vaccine approval.EU-UK policymakers to hold a brief Brexit meeting during the weekend, no progress expected.GBP/USD stays mildly bid, currently up 0.10% to 1.3370, while heading into Friday’s London open. Disappointment over AstraZeneca’s extra trials and Brexit woes dragged the quote back from three months high the previous day. Though, fresh optimism concerning vaccine and the coronavirus (COVID-19) favor sterling ahead of this weekend’s trade negotiations between the UK and the European Union (EU). Following its inability to go ahead for approval of the covid vaccine, mainly due to the issues that led to an extra trial for small-dosage cures, the British government helped AstraZeneca by pushing the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) for a temporary supply of vaccines. The vaccine expectations join the first decline in the rate of covid-led hospitalizations, as conveyed by The Guardian, to renew the GBP/USD buying. On the other hand, the BBC reporter Nick Beake mentioned, in a tweet, about this weekend’s face-to-face Brexit talks. The media person also mentioned that the talks could be brief. Earlier in Asia, a representative from the Daily Express conveyed views favoring no progress in fisheries talks, the key hurdle for the Brexit trade deal. It should also be noted that US President Donald Trump announced the vaccine delivery to start from the next week but the risk-tone remains sluggish as the China-Aussie row intensifies while the Sino-American tension continues. That said, stock futures stay mildly offered in the US and the UK while Asian shares trade mixed by press time. Considering a lack of major data/events, GBP/USD traders will keep their eyes on the Brexit, vaccine headlines for fresh impulse. While no major positives are expected from the talks, UK PM Boris Johnson’s spokesperson conveyed the Tory leaders’ readiness to bridge the gap, which in turn backs hopes of a surprise and the cable’s run-up beyond 1.3400. Technical analysis An upward sloping trend line from November 02, at 1.3345 now, directs the GBP/USD bulls to challenge the 1.3400 once again.  

EUR/USD looks set to end the holiday-shortened trading week on a positive note, with the US dollar trading under pressure across the board. The curren

EUR/USD trades 0.58% higher on the week near 1.1925. Upbeat China data weighs over the US dollar. Weak tone in the US stock futures caps gains. EUR/USD looks set to end the holiday-shortened trading week on a positive note, with the US dollar trading under pressure across the board.  The currency pair is currently hovering near 1.1925, representing a 0.58% gain on the week.  On a daily basis, the pair is up just 0.10%. The upbeat China data released in Asia looks to be drawing offers for the US dollar. In a sign of impressive recovery from coronavirus slowdown, China's industrial profits rose for the sixth straight month in October, and at the fastest rate in nine years.  However, the upside is likely being capped by doubts over drugmaker AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine and losses in the US stock futures. Risk assets have put in a positive performance this month, pushing the haven assets such a dollar and gold lower on hopes of swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines.  Should the risk aversion worsen in Europe, the pair could erase marginal gains seen at the time of writing. Data wise, the focus would be on the German Import Price Index and Eurozone's Services Sentiment, Consumer Confidence, and Industrial Confidence indices. Comments from the German Bundesbank President Weidmann and European Central Bank (ECB) member Panetta could also influence the pair.  The policymakers are likely to talk dovish and bolster expectations for additional easing by the ECB in December.  Technical levels  

The Turkish central bank, the CBRT, revised banks' reserve ratio requirements, the Official Gazette showed on Friday. The new rules will take effect o

The Turkish central bank, the CBRT, revised banks' reserve ratio requirements, the Official Gazette showed on Friday. The new rules will take effect on Dec. 11, according to the Gazette. Key details “The CBRT lifts rule linking banks' reserve ratio requirements to their credit growth level.” “The required reserve ratio for lira deposits with a maturity of up to three months was set at 6%, those up to 6 months at 4%, those less than a year at 2% and 1% for maturities of one year or longer.“ “For foreign currencies, the ratio for deposits with a maturity of less than a year was set at 19% and at 13% for maturities of one year or longer.”

Australian Agriculture Minister: Extremely disappointed with China’s decision to impose preliminary tariffs on wine more to come ...;

Australian Agriculture Minister: Extremely disappointed with China’s decision to impose preliminary tariffs on wine  more to come ...;

Gold prices seesaw around $1,810 while searching for a fresh direction during early Friday. Even so, the bullion trades inside a three-day-old ascendi

Gold struggles for traction while gradually firming up the recovery moves.The bullish technical pattern has a bumpy road ahead.Gold prices seesaw around $1,810 while searching for a fresh direction during early Friday. Even so, the bullion trades inside a three-day-old ascending trend channel, which in turn keeps the buyers hopeful above $1,800. In doing so, the channel resistance around $1,820 becomes an immediate upside hurdle restricting the further rise towards the previous support line from November 16, at $1,830.55 now. During the quote’s sustained rise beyond the resistance line, 200-HMA level near $1,850 and November 19 bottom close to $1,853 will be among the last few challenges for gold buyers. Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated support line, at $1,806 now, will seek confirmation of recalling the bears from the $1,800 threshold. Also acting as the key support is the early July top near $1,790. Gold hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

AUD/USD is currently trading near 0.7370, representing a 0.20% gain on the day, having found bids near 0.7350 early today. The pair is gaining altitud

AUD/USD's daily chart shows a bullish continuation pattern. The pair could soon challenge September highs above 0.74.AUD/USD is currently trading near 0.7370, representing a 0.20% gain on the day, having found bids near 0.7350 early today.  The pair is gaining altitude in the wake of an ascending triangle breakout (bullish continuation pattern) confirmed on Tuesday.  Backing the breakout are rising 5- and 10-day Simple Moving Averages and an above-50 or bullish reading on the 14-day Relative Strength Index.  As such, the pair could soon test resistance at 0.7413 (Sept. 1 high). A close under the 10-day SMA, currently at 0.7324, would invalidate bullish bias.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Asian stocks fizzle upside momentum while keeping a low profile during early Friday. The risks dwindle amid mixed signals for vaccine developments as

Asian indices dribble near multi-month high as trade/political news join mixed policy signals, vaccine updates.Aussie-China tussle intensify, NZ Treasury eyes upbeat GDP growth.Japan extends relief for covid-hit firms, China’s Industrial Profits post first advance in 2020.Asian stocks fizzle upside momentum while keeping a low profile during early Friday. The risks dwindle amid mixed signals for vaccine developments as well as China’s trade-punitive action over Australia. Further, Japan’s extension of stimulus to the coronavirus (COVID-19) hit firms, as well as new loan schemes, combats the downbeat inflation data at home and welcome figure from Beijing to further confuse the traders after US Thanksgiving Day dashed earlier risk-on mood the previous day. Also read: S&P 500 Futures decline towards 3,600 amid mixed clues on covid vaccine That said, MSCI’s index for Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan drops 0.17% while staying closer to the record top marked earlier in the week. The moves contrast to Japan’s Nikkei 225 that prints 0.33% intraday gains on policy signals and dismal Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Further, stocks in Australia have to bear the burden of China’s halt in Aussie coal and chatters over anti-dumping duties on wines from Canberra. On the contrary, New Zealand’s NZX 50 gains around half a percent by press time as New Zealand (NZ) Treasury praises the recent jump in the third quarter (Q3) retail sales data. Elsewhere, Chinese equities dwindle with its tension with Australia and the US suggesting fresh trade/political challenges for the Beijing firms. Moreover, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) readiness to let the markets determine the yuan rate also probes Asian bulls. Talking about the covid vaccines, US President Donald Trump announced to deliver the cure by the next week whereas the UK government is pushing to fast-track the AstraZeneca approval. Moving on, a light calendar may challenge the markets from moving much while the return of the US trader may renew buying of the riskier assets.

Germany is set to nearly double its 2021 debt plans to more than 180 billion euros ($215 billion) or nearly 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to

Germany is set to nearly double its 2021 debt plans to more than 180 billion euros ($215 billion) or nearly 6% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to fund aid measures launched to cushion the impact of coronavirus pandemic on the economy, two souces told Reuters on Thursday.  Germany's coronavirus cases have surpassed the 1 million mark since the start of the pandemic. The second wave has accelerated in the past few weeks, forcing the government to reimpose the economically-painful lockdown restrictions.  

Having initially extended the previous day’s recovery mover from $44.79, WTI eases to $45.10 during early Friday. In doing so, the energy benchmark ke

WTI fades bounces off three-day-old support line, stays above $45.00.Normal RSI conditions suggest further recovery, 50% of Fibonacci retracement lures bears below trend line support.Having initially extended the previous day’s recovery mover from $44.79, WTI eases to $45.10 during early Friday. In doing so, the energy benchmark keeps the downside break of 50-HMA and an ascending trend line from November 20. However, an immediate support line from Tuesday restricts the quote’s short-term declines, around $44.83, before the previous day’s low near $44.79. While RSI conditions suggest further consolidation of losses towards 50-HMA and previous support line, respectively around $45.40 and $45.60, a two-day-long resistance line near $45.75/80 could challenge the energy bulls afterward. In a case where the oil prices rise beyond $45.80, the recently flashed multi-month high of $46.30 and March month’s high near $48.85 gains market attention. Alternatively, a downside break below $44.79 will eye 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 19-25 advances, at $43.80. Should there be further declines below $43.80, November 23 high near $43.40 may return to the charts. WTI hourly chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

One-month risk reversal on GBP/USD, a gauge of calls to puts, has dropped to -1.75, the lowest level since Sept. 25, extending the drop from the peak

One-month risk reversal on GBP/USD, a gauge of calls to puts, has dropped to -1.75, the lowest level since Sept. 25, extending the drop from the peak of -0.90 observed on Nov. 17, according to data source.  The negative risk reversal results from put options or bearish bets drawing stronger demand than calls (bullish bets).  As such, the latest drop in the risk reversal indicates investors are adding bets to position for weakness in the British Pound.  GBP/USD is currently trading near 1.3364. 

The Indian rupee keeps its range near two-week highs against its American counterpart in Friday’s Asian trading, mainly buoyed by the expectations of

The Indian rupee keeps its range near two-week highs against its American counterpart in Friday’s Asian trading, mainly buoyed by the expectations of an economic recovery for India amid coronavirus vaccine hopes. The latest Reuters poll of economists showed Friday, a majority of them believe Asia’s third-largest economy to show some signs of recovery in the September quarter, in the wake of improving consumer demand induced by the vaccines progress.   more to come ...

USD/JPY is currently trading near 104.10, representing a 0.12% drop on the day. The bears failed to establish a foothold under the 200-month Simple Mo

USD/JPY trades close to a long-held 200-month SMA. A violation there would shift risk in favor of a drop to deeper support levels. USD/JPY is currently trading near 104.10, representing a 0.12% drop on the day. The bears failed to establish a foothold under the 200-month Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 103.92 earlier this month.  The bears have failed several times in the past four years to force a monthly close under the long-term average.  As such, the 200-month SMA is the level to defend for the bulls. If the pair ends below that average line on Monday, more substantial selling pressure may emerge, yield a more profound drop toward 101.18 (March low).  A close above resistance at 104.76 (Nov. 24 high) would confirm a short-term bullish reversal and open the doors to 105.68 (Nov. 11 high).  Monthly chartTrend: Bearish below 200-month MA Technical levels  

In its third-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) reiterated its commitment to maintaining prudent and f

In its third-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) reiterated its commitment to maintaining prudent and flexible monetary policy while adding that it will let the market determine the yuan exchange rate. Key quotes (via Bloomberg) Will maintain normal monetary policy for as long as possible. Will keep macro leverage ratio basically stable. Reiterates that prudent monetary policy will be more flexible and targeted. Will improve the mechanism for preventing and dealing with bond default risks. China has no foundation for long-term inflation or deflation. Will further implement the prudent management system for real estate finance. Will keep yuan exchange rates flexible and let market play a decisive role in the formation of yuan rates. USD/CNY fix: 6.5755 vs est 6.5739; prev 6.5780China imposing anti-dumping duties on Australian wine

Gold is struggling to draw bids despite the losses in the US stock futures and doubts about a coronavirus vaccine. The yellow metal is currently tradi

Gold faces rejection at the descending 5-day SMA hurdle. Risk sentiment sours amid vaccine doubts but fails to boost the yellow metal. Gold is struggling to draw bids despite the losses in the US stock futures and doubts about a coronavirus vaccine.  The yellow metal is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near $1,809, having faced rejection at the descending 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $1,813 early Friday. The S&P 500 futures are down over 0.30%.  British drugmaker AstraZeneca's low-cost vaccine is now facing intense scrutiny, with scientists raising doubts about the robustness of results showing the shot was 90% effective. As such, the approval of the vaccine could be delayed.  Coupled with renewed signs of weakness in the US labor market, that looks to weighing over the S&P 500 futures and Asian stocks. So far, however, haven demand for gold has remained elusive.  The yellow metal is down over 3.5% this month, as positive results of several experimental coronavirus vaccines triggered hopes for a swift global economic recovery and pushed anti-risk assets lower.  Technical levels  

There should be no doubt on the central bank’s inflation commitment, the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta said in an i

There should be no doubt on the central bank’s inflation commitment, the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board Member Fabio Panetta said in an interview with the Portuguese newspaper Expresso on Friday.   more to come ...

EUR/JPY drops to 123.93, down 0.20% intraday, during early Friday. In doing so, the pair extends the previous day’s pullback after declining below 100

EUR/JPY stays depressed as sellers extend pullback from 124.56.Sustained break of the key HMA, bearish MACD favor bears.200-HMA in the spotlight during further downside.EUR/JPY drops to 123.93, down 0.20% intraday, during early Friday. In doing so, the pair extends the previous day’s pullback after declining below 100-HMA. Not only the sustained downside past-the key HMA but bearish MACD signals also direct EUR/JPY bears towards 200-HMA re-test, currently around 123.68. However, a confluence of a one-week-old rising trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November 19-26 upside, around 123.50, will restrict the quote’s further weakness. On the contrary, a two-day-old resistance line, at 124.17, can restrict the EUR/JPY recovery moves beyond the 100-HMA level of 124.00. Though, bulls are less likely to retake controls unless witnessing the fresh high of the month above 125.15. EUR/JPY hourly chart Trend: further weakness expected  

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is seen urging the government to expand and create new state-backed loan and loan guarantee schemes to s

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is seen urging the government to expand and create new state-backed loan and loan guarantee schemes to support firms hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, Reuters reports, citing a draft proposal on Friday.   more to come .,..

EUR/USD is currently sidelined near 1.1914, having created the indecisive Doji candle on Thursday. The Doji comprises long upper wicks and a small bod

EUR/USD created a Doji candle on Thursday, indicating indecision. A close above Thursday's high would revive the bullish bias. EUR/USD is currently sidelined near 1.1914, having created the indecisive Doji candle on Thursday.  The Doji comprises long upper wicks and a small body, implying indecision in the market place. Thursday's Doji has neutralized the immediate bullish setup and made Friday's close pivotal.  A close above the Doji candle's high of 1.1914 would mean the period of indecision has ended with a bull victory and allow a continuation of the rally from weekly lows near 1.18.  Alternatively, acceptance under Thursday's low of 1.1885 would confirm a bearish Doji reversal pattern and expose deeper support levels.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish above 1.1841 Technical levels  

NZD/USD rises to 0.7011 in the latest run-up to trim the early Friday’s losses. Backing the kiwi bulls are optimistic comments from the NZ Treasury an

NZD/USD picks up bids after recently positive NZ indicators.New Zealand (NZ) Treasury highlights an upside risk to economic growth backed by recent jump in retail sales.China’s Industrial Profits grew 28.2% YoY in October.Risk dwindle amid mixed sentiment concerning virus vaccine and Sino-American, Aussie-China tension.NZD/USD rises to 0.7011 in the latest run-up to trim the early Friday’s losses. Backing the kiwi bulls are optimistic comments from the NZ Treasury and upbeat industrial profits data from China. In doing so, the quote ignores challenges to the risk and its largest customer Australia, mainly due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine update and China. NZ Treasury’s weekly report cited upside risk to the GDP growth forecasts based on the latest jump in retail sales data. The report also mentioned, “Card spending has shown a steady recovery in November after some volatility, and the number of people receiving income support continues to fall.” Elsewhere, China’s October month Industrial Profits grew 28.2% YoY versus 10.1% prior. The year-to-date figures suggest more optimism by rising to 0.7% YoY, the first positive figure in 2020. On the negative side, China eyes anti-dumping duties on Aussie wine while chatters over Beijing stopping the Australian coal ships also weigh on the risks. Further, the Sino-American tension also intensified recently after the US levies fresh sanctions on Chinese companies over their links to the Iran missile program. Also, Chinese media’s indirect warning to US President-election Joe Biden over Taiwan heavy the risks. It should be noted that US President Donald Trump’s promise to deliver the vaccine by next week and the UK’s push for AstraZeneca’s vaccine approval tried to placate the market bears. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.20% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific trade mixed by press time. Moving on, risk catalysts can keep the driver’s seat amid a light calendar. Technical analysis The mid-2018 top surrounding 0.7050 holds the key to the further upside by NZD/USD.  

In the view of the analysts at JP Morgan, the US equities, including the S&P 500 index, is poised for additional upside next year, with the 2021 year-

In the view of the analysts at JP Morgan, the US equities, including the S&P 500 index, is poised for additional upside next year, with the 2021 year-end target seen at 4,500. Key quotes “Expectations of many key risks subsiding (e.g. US elections, pandemic and vaccine news, etc.) clearing the path to a more positive forward outlook.” “While there has been some upward pressure on rates, central bank policy continues to be accommodative and a major pillar of support for equity multiples.“ “A 1.5% 10-yr UST yield would make them less comfortable on US stocks.” Related readsS&P 500 Futures decline towards 3,600 amid mixed clues on covid vaccineForex Today: Quiet holiday’s trading

AUD/JPY is trading at 76.56 and is down some 0.15% on the day so far having scored a low of 76.52 from a high of 76.74. In recent trade, commodities h

AUD/JPY is feeling the pressure as the yen hardens in Tokyo trade.Risk-off sentiment gathers pace as trade war headlines rear their ugly head.AUD/JPY is trading at 76.56 and is down some 0.15% on the day so far having scored a low of 76.52 from a high of 76.74. In recent trade, commodities have been under pressure as trade war angst pipes up again, this time between Australia and China.  The CRB index is still higher on the day but has met a peak and the fundamentals have soured.  The latest news is that the China Commerce Ministry will impose temporary anti-dumping measures on wine imports from Australia from November 28. The news comes on the back of last week's reports that the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Wang Wenbin claimed that Australia has launched 106 anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations against China. He also said that China had only initiated four investigations against Australian goods. Aussie coal tankers have also been stopped from delivering to ports in China. This comes on the heels of last months news that China would ban coal imports. Meanwhile, iron ore markets pushed towards 6 year highs overnight. ''BHP emphasised resilient Chinese steel demand with blast furnace utilisation rates set to remain at about 91% on strong margins,'' analysts at Westpac explained. ''Jan Dalian iron ore is up 1.7% on the night session while the SGX Dec contract hit fresh records closing at $127.22. The 62% MySteel index closed up $2.15 at $129.90.''        

New Zealand’s (NZ) Treasury is out with its Weekly Economic Update, with the key highlights found below (via Reuters). Retail sales rebound strongly i

New Zealand’s (NZ) Treasury is out with its Weekly Economic Update, with the key highlights found below (via Reuters). Retail sales rebound strongly in the quarter, experienced their highest growth on record. Annual GDP was revised up by $7.9 billion in the year to March 2020 relative to the previously published quarterly data Card spending has shown a steady recovery in November after some volatility. The number of people receiving income support continues to fall.  developing story ...

GBP/USD wavers around 1.3350, recently picking up bids near 1.3355, during early Friday. In doing so, the pair stops the previous day’s U-turn from th

GBP/USD trades in a choppy range around 1.3350-60.Strong RSI conditions, not overbought, suggest further advances of the pair.21-day SMA adds to the downside filter, September high on bulls’ radars.GBP/USD wavers around 1.3350, recently picking up bids near 1.3355, during early Friday. In doing so, the pair stops the previous day’s U-turn from the highest since September 02 while testing an upward sloping trend line from November 02. With the RSI conditions a bit lower than the overbought, the latest recovery in the GBP/USD price can continue justifying the bounce from a strong support line towards the monthly high near 1.3400. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s ability to cross the 1.3400 threshold will eye the fresh the yearly top, beyond September’s peak of 1.3482. Meanwhile, a daily closing below the stated support line, at 1.3345 now, will take the quote towards a 21-day SMA level of 1.3198. Though, GBP/USD traders need to break October’s top of 1.3176 to keep the reins past-1.3198. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

AUD/USD has been capped in its pursuit of the mid-summer highs in the mid 0.73 area. Bears are seeking an opportunity to short from the supply zone, b

AUD/USD is above a critical support level which leaves the bears in the sidelines.The downside is compelling on a break and hold below the structure. AUD/USD has been capped in its pursuit of the mid-summer highs in the mid 0.73 area. Bears are seeking an opportunity to short from the supply zone, but await a break of daily support.  The following is a top-down analysis to illustrate where the next bearish opportunity might arise.  Monthly chart Weekly chart The monthly and weekly show the price in a supply zone and the weekly high's wick was a strong rejection. This area is expected to hold and create a shorting opportunity on repeated upside failures.  Daily chart Bears need to see a retest of the old support turning resistance prior to target the series if support structure to the downside. 

USD/JPY drops to 104.10, down 0.14% intraday, during the Asian session on Friday. The pair recently refreshed the intraday low amid challenges to the

USD/JPY stays near the intraday low, drops for the fourth-day in a row.Japan government extends compensation scheme for covid-hit firms to February.UK government rushes for AstraZeneca’s vaccine approval, Trump announced vaccine delivery.China to impose anti-dumping duties on Aussie wine, Sino-American and US-Tehran tension also weigh risks.USD/JPY drops to 104.10, down 0.14% intraday, during the Asian session on Friday. The pair recently refreshed the intraday low amid challenges to the previous risk-on mood as well as the Japanese government’s announcement concerning the coronavirus (COVID) relief stimulus. Yoshihide Suga-led government recently said, per Reuters, that it will extend until February the compensation scheme for covid-hit firms that retain jobs. The stated aid package was to expire in December previously. Earlier in the day, Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) details for November couldn’t entertain the USD/JPY traders even with downbeat figures. Talking about the risks, the UK Government pushes the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) to assess Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine for a temporary supply even as the drug manufacturer’s latest announcement, on Thursday, stated that they’re holding one more trial amid some production issues over the less-dosage vaccine. Also on the positive side could be the news, shared by US President Donald Trump, that the American will receive covid vaccine starting from next week. It should be noted that China’s hint of additional trade-punitive measures over Australia joins that Washington-Beijing tension over trade and political issues to weigh the risks. Further, the US and Iran are also at loggerheads over the missile program and also dim the mood. That said, optimism that Joe Biden and the team will be able to combat virus woes, at least for the US, as well as the vaccine hopes battle bears. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.20% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 gains 0.40% by press time. Given the lack of major data/events, USD/JPY traders need to check with the risk catalysts for fresh impulse. Technical analysis A gradual downward trajectory towards the support line of a three-week-old symmetrical triangle, at 103.85, can’t be ruled out until USD/JPY rises above 104.45 level, comprising the upper line of the stated triangle and 21-day SMA.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.5755 (est 6.5739; prev 6.5780). About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.5755 (est 6.5739; prev 6.5780). About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland, the current known as CNY which differs from its offshore yuan, or CNH, which not as tightly controlled as the onshore yuan. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from inter-bank dealer.

The trade war escalation continues with the latest news that China Commerce Ministry will impose temporary anti-dumping measures on wine imports from

The trade war escalation continues with the latest news that China Commerce Ministry will impose temporary anti-dumping measures on wine imports from Australia from November 28. There is some risk-off entering the market in Tokyo around the same time as this news. AUD/JPY is down some 0.18% at the time of writing to 76.53. More to come...

USD/CAD wavers around 1.3020 amid Friday’s Asian session. Even if the quote struggles for a clear direction off-late, it holds the corrective recoveri

USD/CAD keeps Tuesday’s pullback from 13-day low, recently sideways near intraday high.Bullish MACD favor recovery moves towards 100-HMA, weekly resistance line.Monthly low can lure the bears below 1.2985.USD/CAD wavers around 1.3020 amid Friday’s Asian session. Even if the quote struggles for a clear direction off-late, it holds the corrective recoveries from the 13-day low marked on Wednesday. While bullish MACD backs the recently positive trading momentum, a joint of 100-HMA and a falling trend line from Monday around 1.3030 restricts the pair’s immediate upside. In a case where the USD/CAD bulls manage to cross 1.3030, the weekly top surrounding 1.3110 will be on their radar. Though, Tuesday’s high of 1.3090 can act as an intermediate halt during the rise. On the flip side, an immediate ascending trend line around 1.3015 and 1.3000 can restrict the pair’s short-term downside moves. Also acting as the key support is the weekly low near 1.2985 that holds the gate for further south-run targeting the monthly trough near 1.2930. USD/CAD hourly chart Further recovery expected  

S&P 500 Futures drops 0.30% to 3,617 amid the initial hour of Tokyo open on Friday. The risk barometer declines for the third consecutive day amid mix

S&P 500 Futures drop for the third day after rising to three week high earlier in the week.UK Government pushes for AstraZeneca’s fast-track approval after news of an extra trial.Trump said the vaccine will be delivered starting next week.Virus/vaccine updates and trade/political tussles among key economies should be watched amid a light calendar.S&P 500 Futures drops 0.30% to 3,617 amid the initial hour of Tokyo open on Friday. The risk barometer declines for the third consecutive day amid mixed signals over the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines. Also challenging the mood could be the fears of further escalation in the virus cases before the cure hit the floor. The UK Government is pushing the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) to assess Oxford/AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine for a temporary supply. The reason could be traced from the British drug manufacturer’s announcement on Thursday that they’re holding one more trial amid some production issues over the less-dosage vaccine. On the positive side, US President Donald Trump said that the vaccine will be delivered from next week. It should be noted that the latest covid number from Texas and California have been worrisome. Elsewhere, the US-China and the Washington-Tehran tensions have recently been challenging the optimists trying to cheer the vaccine hopes and the expectations of the US recovery backed by the new government team. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop 3.3 basis points (bps), to currently around 0.84%, whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific trade mixed. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events can extend the previous day’s inactive mood, led by the US Thanksgiving Day. Though, fresh challenges to the risk can help the market trim earlier gains.

Reuters has reported that Britain on Friday asked its medicine regulator to assess Oxford University and AstraZeneca's AZN.L COVID-19 vaccine candidat

Reuters has reported that Britain on Friday asked its medicine regulator to assess Oxford University and AstraZeneca's AZN.L COVID-19 vaccine candidate for temporary supply, a step towards beginning a roll-out before the end of the year. ''AstraZeneca expects 4 million doses to be available in Britain by the end of next month, and health minister Hancock is targeting the roll-out to begin before Christmas,'' Reuters wrote. "We have formally asked the regulator to assess the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, to understand the data and determine whether it meets rigorous safety standards," Hancock said in a statement, reported by Reuters.  "This letter is an important step towards deploying a vaccine as quickly as safely possible." More key notes ''Britain's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) is already assessing the vaccine in a "rolling review" as data comes in on safety and efficacy.'' ''Hancock has also asked the MHRA to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate after it was shown to be 95% effective.'' ''Oxford and AstraZeneca AZN.L published interim efficacy results on Monday, which showed that the vaccine could be 90% effective when given as a half dose followed by a full dose.'' ''Questions have been raised about the Oxford/AstraZeneca data and the robustness of that result, though the MHRA approved the use of the half-dose/full-dose regime a subgroup received in the trial.'' ''Britain's top science adviser said on Thursday that the interim results showed the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine worked.'' Market implications The pound is already solid on the prospects of a Brexit breakthrough and a faster economic recovery pertaining to a vaccine.   

In the recent good news in markets, the price of the yellow metal has come under renewed pressure. The yellow metal has completed a 38.2% Fibonacci re

The price of gold has broken into bearish territory below a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Bears will seek a discount on a pullback to retest old support, expected to turn resistance. In the recent good news in markets, the price of the yellow metal has come under renewed pressure. The yellow metal has completed a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the weekly bull trend and has closed below the level on a daily basis.  The following is a top-down analysis which illustrates where the next opportunity could be on a retest of an old support structure.  Monthly chart Weekly chart Does the correction have the legs to test the old resistance and confluence of either the 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement areas? Daily chart As can be seen, the bulls may well be seeking a retest of the old support. If this area holds, then bears will be encouraged to risk positioning towards the next target area.  4-hour chart As it stands, the price remains in bearish territory, but a break of the 21 moving average on the 4-hour time frame will open prospects of a test of the old support. 

USD/JPY takes rounds to 104.25 during Friday’s Asian session. The yen pair recently shrugged off Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) details while extend

USD/JPY traders look for strong signals to break the chain of three-day declines.Tokyo CPI slipped below -0.6% forecast, core CPI matched -0.7% expected in November.Risks struggle amid US off, mixed news on vaccine, US-China front.A light calendar can extend the sideways moves.USD/JPY takes rounds to 104.25 during Friday’s Asian session. The yen pair recently shrugged off Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) details while extending the previous day’s sideways moves, mainly due to the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. However, challenges to the previous risk-on mood can keep the quote heavy despite a likely easy day. Tokyo CPI drops to -0.7% YoY, more than -0.6% market consensus. Further details suggest the CPI ex Fresh Food, known as Core CPI, match 0.7% forecast on YoY. Also, an additional funneled down the reading of the CPI that sheds Fresh Food and Energy prices, declined below -0.1% to -0.20% YoY. Although all the major inflation signals marked dovish prints, USD/JPY failed to react as traders await fresh, stronger, clues to break the previous day’s monotony. In doing so, the latest coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine clues can play their role. US President Donald Trump recently said that the vaccine will be delivered starting next week while AstraZeneca announced another trial before going ahead with its vaccine. Elsewhere, the US-China tussle hovers around the inability to deliver trade deal promises and Beijing’s alleged linkages with the Iran missile program, not to forget China’s dislike for the American intervention in the matters relating to Taiwan and Hong Kong. Furthermore, Iran-Saudi Arabia and the sustained increase in the US covid cases are additional challenges to the risk-tone sentiment. Even so, S&P 500 Futures flash mildly positive signs amid vaccine hopes while stocks in Asia-Pacific also follow the suit by press time. Moving on, a lack of major data/events can bore the traders for the rest of Friday but risk catalysts and broad US dollar weakness may keep the bears hopeful. Technical analysis A confluence of 21-day SMA and three-week-old symmetrical triangle, currently around 104.45, restricts the pair’s upside moves. Until then, a gradual downward trajectory towards 103.85 can’t be ruled out.  

Japan Foreign Bond Investment rose from previous ¥1009.1B to ¥1964B in November 20

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥-1193.2B (November 20) vs previous ¥422.5B

USD/TRY recently eased from the intraday high of 7.886 to 7.8750 amid early Friday’s Asian session. Even so, the quote keeps the previous day’s bounce

USD/TRY seesaws in a choppy range below 100-HMA.MACD teases recovery moves inside a bearish chart pattern.One-week-old horizontal support pops-up on the bears’ radar.USD/TRY recently eased from the intraday high of 7.886 to 7.8750 amid early Friday’s Asian session. Even so, the quote keeps the previous day’s bounce off 7.8517 to regain the 100-HMA. Even if the pair manages to cross 100-HMA immediate resistance, at 7.8930 now, based on the MACD signals, a two-day-long descending channel formation keeps the USD/TRY buyers away until witnessing a break of 7.9245/50. Also likely to challenge the upside momentum is the weekly high near 8.0510 and November 11 top close to 8.2000. During the USD/TRY downside, the stated channel’s support near 7.8220 and a horizontal line including November 19 high and November 23 low, around 7.7360, will be the key to watch. If at all the USD/TRY sellers manage to keep the reins past-7.7360, the monthly low of 7.5059 will be on their radars. USD/TRY hourly chart Trend: Further weakness expected

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets expectations (-0.7%) in November

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (-0.1%) in November

Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (-0.6%) in November

WTI awaits clear signals to extend the latest pullback from $44.79, currently around $45.00, during Friday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark eased

WTI fades pullback moves from the highest in nine months.Trump announces vaccine delivery to take place next week, US-China, Washington Tehran tensions escalate.US holidays restricts the market activity, a light calendar ahead may extend the lack of momentum.WTI awaits clear signals to extend the latest pullback from $44.79, currently around $45.00, during Friday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark eased from the multi-day high the previous day as global optimism, mainly fuelled through the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine hopes, fizzled. Also challenging the oil bulls was the US holiday due to Thanksgiving Day. Recently, US President Donald Trump mentioned that the covid vaccine delivery will begin the next week, which in turn defied the earlier market pessimism triggered thought AstraZeneca’s announcement of additional trials. Also on the positive side could be the latest US-Iran tussle, over Tehran’s missile program, which also takes clues from the tussle between Saudi Arabia and Houthis. Meanwhile, disagreements between the world’s top two economies, namely the US and China, also grew after Beijing warned US President-elect Joe Biden over comments for Taiwan. The news citing only half of the Sino-American trades promised in the deal despite passing 10 months of agreement join the chatters over Hong Kong to cite the tension among the key oil users. Against this backdrop, expectations that the OPEC+ group may inch towards the further extension of the production cut agreement joins the latest covid vaccine hopes to keep the energy buyers hopeful. Though, a lack of major data/events restricts the uptrend off-late. Technical analysis Unless declining back below the August month’s high of $43.86, WTI buyers are less likely to relinquish the controls.  

EUR/USD was at the whim of US dollar flows on Thursday, undulating between fresh three-month highs at 1.1941 and lows of 1.1885, before settling aroun

EUR/USD was at the whim of US dollar flows on Thursday, but ultimately ended the day flat at just above 1.1800.ECB rhetoric, as well as the minutes of the November meeting, serve as a reminder of the stimulus dilemma faced by the ECB in December.EUR/USD was at the whim of US dollar flows on Thursday, undulating between fresh three-month highs at 1.1941 and lows of 1.1885, before settling around the midpoint of the day’s price action just above 1.1910 in recent trade. The ECB’s dilemma… ECB commentary in the form of rhetoric from Chief Economist Philip Lane and Governing Council Members Robert Holzmann and Gabriel Makhlouf, as well as the release of the minutes of the most recent ECB policy meeting, did have much of a lasting impact on the euro on Thursday. Lane reiterated his support for the bank’s PEPP and TLTRO programmes, calling them the cornerstones of the EBC’s monetary response to the pandemic. Holzmann noted indications that there should be a more stable recovery from mid-2021 (seemingly a nod to growing expectations for mass vaccination programmes to have taken place by then) and pushed back against the notion of another rate cut, saying it “wouldn’t have an effect”. However, he did say that he cannot rule out the ECB implementing news monetary policy tools. Meanwhile, Macklouf noted that there may be factors pulling in “slightly different directions”. In sum, though comments made by ECB members on Thursday did not reveal anything new, they do demonstrate the dilemma being faced by the bank ahead of its December monetary policy decision; The ECB’s November monetary policy meeting statement and the comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde in the post-meeting press conference clearly showed an ECB in favour of a significant expansion of stimulus measures in December. Back at the time of the November meeting, European nations were heading back into lockdown 2.0 to tackle a second Covid-19 wave and financial markets were feeling the strain. The minutes from this meeting were released on Thursday and served as a reminder of the pessimism being felt at the time. Fast forward four weeks and while the immediate Covid-19 situation in Europe has not improved that much (most of Europe is still under some form of lockdown restriction and new infections are still at elevated levels), financial markets have been buoyed by 1) the prospect of the faster than expected development of more effective than expected Covid-19 vaccines and 2) Joe Biden’s US Presidential election victory over US President Donald Trump. These combined factors materially improve the global (and Eurozone) economic outlook for 2021 and beyond. Vaccine optimism in particular seems to already have given business a boost given the immediate reduction in long-term pandemic-related uncertainty. Recent optimism clearly undermines the case for drastic stimulus measures in December. A deposit rate cut to -0.6%, already seen as unlikely back in November, is now almost certainly off the table. But markets still expect big things from the ECB regarding an expansion of the PEPP and TLTROs. Does an ECB trying to balance a bleak near-term economic outlook with a more promising long-term outlook want to risk under-delivering on market expectations and risk sending EUR/USD even higher than it already is? The bank has already noted that a higher EUR/USD negatively impacts inflation in the Eurozone and the bloc has already been in deflation for the last few months. On the topic of inflation in the Eurozone; French preliminary November inflation numbers are released on Friday morning at 07:45GMT and will, as ever, make for interesting reading. Elsewhere, there is also the ECB’s very own business and consumer sentiment survey for November, set to be released at 10:00GMT. Friday also sees more ECB speak with governing council members Panetta, Weidmann and Visco speaking at a payments conference at 09:30GMT. As with recent ECB speak, they are likely to try to strike a balance between pessimism over the short-term outlook with improvements in the longer-term outlook. EUR/USD carving out new range above last week’s range EUR/USD appears to be carving out a new intra-day range, within which it is likely to continue to trade over the coming days, given the expected lack of volume with many US participants away on Friday and the coming Monday for a long Thanksgiving weekend. The top of the range that was in play from the 16-24 November, that kept price action mostly confined between the 1.1800 and 1.1900 levels, seems to now be offering EUR/USD support. Buyers came in to buy the dip when EUR/USD dropped into the 1.1880s on Thursday, indicative that this area that had been acting as resistance has now turned to support. Going forward then, Thursday’s lows and the surrounding area are likely to continue to see buying interest. To the upside, EUR/USD is now less constrained by resistance; Thursday’s highs (incidentally, the highest levels since early September) at 1.1941 will be the key level to watch to the upside. Beyond that, the 18 August high at 1.1961 is the next are to watch and above that the psychological 1.2000 mark and year-to-date high at 1.2010 just above it.EUR/USD six-hour chart

Silver seesaws around $23.30 while keeping a two-day-old symmetrical triangle during Friday’s Asian session. The white metal has been depressed so far

Silver lacks momentum despite trading on the back foot off-late.Receding RSI conditions favor bears, bulls have multiple hurdles to tackle before entry.Silver seesaws around $23.30 while keeping a two-day-old symmetrical triangle during Friday’s Asian session. The white metal has been depressed so far in the current week but the downside momentum lacks courage. As a result, further selling awaits a clear break below the stated triangle’s support, at $23.23 now, which in turn will eye the monthly low near $22.90. While the metal’s declines past-$22.90 will depend upon the RSI conditions at that time, lows marked in October and September, respectively around $22.60 and $21.65, can lure the silver bears afterward. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the triangle’s resistance, near $23.46, needs to cross a horizontal line around $23.63 comprising November 19 low and November 23 high. Also acting as an upside filter is a nine-day-old descending trend line that presently probes the silver bulls close to $24.05. Silver hourly chart Trend: Sideways  

AUD/NZD is in consolidation during the Thanksgiving celebrations in the US which have seen volumes in markets dwindle to practically non-existant in t

AUD/NZD consolidates at a key support level as markets eye the RBNZ.The divergence between the RBA and RBNZ should be supportive for the bird. AUD/NZD is in consolidation during the Thanksgiving celebrations in the US which have seen volumes in markets dwindle to practically non-existant in the forex space. Overnight, the cross stuck to a 1.0521 and 1.0491 range.  In early Asia on Friday, the cross is sitting at 1.0507 and its on thin ice, balancing the late November support. ''We think the NZD eventually softens against the AUD, but can’t see a near-term catalyst,'' analysts at ANZ bank explained.  There is little for the cross to go on at this juncture with the US elections out of the way and a vaccine on the horizon. Risk sentiment has been favourable to both the Aussie and the kiwi but markets have taken a liking to the bird considering that divergence between the two nation's central banks.  RBA vs RBNZ The Reserve Bank of Australia recently shifted its stance in a more dovish direction, cutting the key policy rates and significantly expanding its QE programme. In contrast, analysts at Westpac argued that ''the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement this week will need to acknowledge the economy (especially housing) has been stronger than forecast, and while it will announce a cheap bank funding scheme (FLP), we expect signalling about a negative OCR to either remain unchanged or be softened.'' ''Yields spreads near term should thus favour the NZD over the AUD,'' the analysts argued. ''Longer term, though, the opposite could be true, if the RBNZ cuts the OCR to -0.50% by August 2021 (our current forecast). That should push the cross to 1.10 by March 2021.''          

AUD/USD drops to 0.7356 during the initial Asian session on Friday. Even so, the pair fails to portray any major moves amid the absence of the US trad

AUD/USD eases after refreshing the three-month top the previous day, downside have recently been confined though.US President Donald Trump said covid vaccine will be delivered from next week, AstraZeneca stops for additional trials.Chatters surrounding US-China relations, virus woes probe risk-on but absence of the US traders, light calendar elsewhere, limits the moves.AUD/USD drops to 0.7356 during the initial Asian session on Friday. Even so, the pair fails to portray any major moves amid the absence of the US traders due to Thanksgiving Day as well as a light calendar elsewhere. The same restricts the market’s reaction to US President Donald Trump’s announcement that the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine delivery will start from the next week. While the news should have ideally propelled the quote, news that AstraZeneca holds additional trials for its covid vaccine probed the optimists off-late. It’s worth mentioning that the latest tussle between the US and China also occupies the negative stand for the AUD/USD traders. The US sanctions on four companies from Russia and China, citing linkages with the Iran missile program, join Beijing’s warning to US President-elect Joe Biden on his view for Taiwan. Additionally, an update suggesting that Washington and Beijing both are only halfway through the trade deal, despite passing 10 months of the agreement, also weigh on the risks. Furthermore, the coronavirus updates and Brexit woes are an extra burden on the risk-tone sentiment. Figures from the US, mainly from Texas and California, suggest that the worst is yet to come while the global counts already cross 60 million. Elsewhere, speculations grew that the European Union’s (EU) Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will convey no progress in the fisheries talks to the bloc’s members on Friday. Looking forward, the aussie pair is likely to trade sideways amid an absence of major catalysts on the calendar. Though, any major surprise from the risk news can entertain the traders. Technical analysis An ascending trend line from October 09, currently around 0.7400, precedes the yearly top surrounding 0.7415 to test the AUD/USD bulls. Alternatively, sellers are less likely to take risks unless witnessing a clear downside break below 0.7345/40 support zone comprising the highs marked since mid-September.  

The US President Donlad Trump has stated that the covid vaccine delivery will begin next week. More to come...

The US President Donlad Trump has stated that the covid vaccine delivery will begin next week. More to come...

AUD/JPY eases to 76.72 amid the early Friday morning in Asia. In doing so, the pair directs the recently downbeat performance towards an immediate sup

AUD/JPY fades upside momentum, extends Wednesday’s pullback from 77.00.Bearish MACD suggests further weakness, bulls can stay hopeful unless witnessing a break of monthly rising trend line support.AUD/JPY eases to 76.72 amid the early Friday morning in Asia. In doing so, the pair directs the recently downbeat performance towards an immediate support line amid bearish MACD. Although the 76.60 support line figure can challenge the AUD/JPY buyers, the upside hopes remain unless the quote drops below an ascending trend line from November 01, at 76.18 now. It should also be noted that the lows marked during the late last week, around 75.50/45 offer additional filters to the downside. Meanwhile, a two-day-old falling trend line near 76.90 probes recovery moves, if any, ahead of the monthly top around 77.05/10. In a case where the AUD/JPY bulls keep the reins past-77.10, the September 10 high near 77.70/75 will be in the spotlight. AUD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The sterling has been rejected on its first attempt to break 1.3400 on Thursday’s early trading and the pair retreated to session lows at 1.3320 where

GBP/USD’s rejection from 1.3400 finds support at 1.3320.Pound rally falters on Brexit uncertainty.GBP/USD is now focusing on 1.3480 – UOB.The sterling has been rejected on its first attempt to break 1.3400 on Thursday’s early trading and the pair retreated to session lows at 1.3320 where it has found support to return to the mid-range of 1.3300. Brexit uncertainty hurts the GBP The pound is losing ground on a thinned Thanksgiving session, retreating from 12-week highs after having rallied in eight out of the last nine trading days. The lack of progress on the Brexit negotiations is undermining GBP bulls while the talks continue in an attempt to bring positions closer in key issues. The positive sentiment witnessed over the previous weeks was hit on Wednesday after the European Commission president, Ursula van der Leyden, warned that the trade deal is far from certain as UK’s position in the fishing issue us blocking the agreement. Today, UK finance minister, Rishi Sunak, affirmed that he was confident and hopeful about a post-Brexit deal, although the impact on the pound was muted. The market is awaiting more solid reasons to back the GBP uptrend. GBP/USD focusing on 1.3480 – UOB The FX Analysis team at UOB remains bullish on the pair, expecting further rally towards 1.3480: “GBP rose to 1.3394 yesterday before closing at 1.3386 (+0.19%). Momentum is beginning to improve and a break of 1.3400 would shift the focus to the year-to-date high at 1.3481 (there is a minor resistance at 1.3440). All in, the outlook for GBP is deemed as positive as long as it does not move below 1.3280 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3250).” Technical levels to watch    
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