जोखिम की चेतावनी: ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरा है। आपकी पूंजी जोखिम में है। Exinity Limited FSC (मॉरीशस) द्वारा विनियमित है।
जोखिम की चेतावनी: ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरा है। आपकी पूंजी जोखिम में है। Exinity Limited FSC (मॉरीशस) द्वारा विनियमित है।
गुरुवार , अप्रेल 18, 2019

According to analysts at Westpac, the Australian consumer mood is delicately balanced heading into mid-2019. Key Quotes “The Westpac–Melbourne Institu

According to analysts at Westpac, the Australian consumer mood is delicately balanced heading into mid-2019.Key Quotes“The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has firmed a touch in the latest month but this is almost entirely due to a substantial boost from the Federal Budget – the projected return to surplus and additional tax relief producing the most positive response in many years.” “The key question of course is the degree to which the lift is sustained. Our concern is that it proves to be short-lived. Adding to this are clear signs of rising pressure on family finances and consumers’ extremely high levels of risk aversion.” “Both of these developments reflect the ongoing correction in Australia’s housing markets, centred in Sydney and Melbourne. That correction is again looking likely to be somewhat deeper and more protracted than at the start of the year.” “That has raised the prospect of more substantive negative ‘spillovers’ to consumer demand.” “Accordingly, we have again pared back our forecasts for growth in consumer spending in 2019, the growth now expected to track with a 2.2% annual pace as a wealth effect drag sees the savings rate rise from 2.5% to 5%.”

Canada ADP Employment Change: 13.2K (March) vs previous 36.2K

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 8.5, below expectations (10.4) in April

United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.7%) in March

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.4%) in February

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.2%) in February

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.653M, below expectations (1.72M) in April 5

The (advanced) data published by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that retail sales in March increased by 1.6% in the U.S. to beat the market expectation of 0.9%.Key takeaways from the press releaseAdvance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $514.1 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent from the previous month, and 3.6 percent above March 2018.  Total sales for the January 2019 through March 2019 period were up 2.9 percent. Retail trade sales were up 1.7 percent from February 2019, and 3.5 percent above last year. 

United States Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.9%) in March: Actual (1.6%)

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 192K, below expectations (205K) in April 12

United States Retail Sales Control Group came in at 1%, above expectations (0.4%) in March

According to analysts at TD Securities, the April Flash PMIs of Eurozone were mixed, with the euro area Manufacturing PMI picking up slightly to 47.8

According to analysts at TD Securities, the April Flash PMIs of Eurozone were mixed, with the euro area Manufacturing PMI picking up slightly to 47.8 while the Services PMI slipped to 52.5.Key Quotes“In France, the Services PMI jumped to 50.5, its fastest pace in 5 months. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI disappointed with a small increase to 44.5 and details suggest a relatively weak underlying picture as new export business and backlogs of work were lower.”

USD/JPY 4-hour chart USD/JPY is correcting down as the bears will need to break 111.80 to reach 111.60 and 111.40 to the downside. Strong resistances

USD/JPY 4-hour chartUSD/JPY is correcting down as the bears will need to break 111.80 to reach 111.60 and 111.40 to the downside. Strong resistances are seen at 112.00 and 112.20 level. The US Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT can bring volatility to USD-related pairs. Additional key levels 

The USD/CHF pair closed the day in the positive territory for the 9th time in the last ten days on Wednesday and preserved its bullish momentum today

US Dollar Index clings to daily gains above 97.Risk-averse environment helps the DXY gain traction.Coming up: Retail sales, Markit Manufacturing & Services PMI data from the U.S.The USD/CHF pair closed the day in the positive territory for the 9th time in the last ten days on Wednesday and preserved its bullish momentum today to advance to its highest level since early March at 1.0118. As of writing, the pair was trading a couple of pips below that level, adding 0.15% on a daily basis. If the pair surpasses the 1.0128 mark, where the November 2018 peak is located, it will reach its highest level in more than 2 years. The broad-based USD strength today's seems to be fueling the pair's upsurge. Ahead of the IHS Markit's preliminary Services and Manufacturing PMI data and March retail sales figures, the US Dollar Index is adding 0.3% on the day at 97.31. Previewing the retail sales report, "We expect the 0.7% m/m improvement in sales in the key control group to be supported by a normalization in tax refunds, rising real disposable income and a still humming labor market,” TD Securities analysts said. The heavy selling pressure witnessed on the shared currency following the disappointing Manufacturing PMI releases fro Germany and the eurozone seems to be boosting the demand for the greenback, which is seen as a safer alternative.Technical levels 

• The precious metal stalled its recent decline and managed to stage a modest recovery from support marked by 50% Fibo. level of the $1196.40-$1346.8

   •  The precious metal stalled its recent decline and managed to stage a modest recovery from support marked by 50% Fibo. level of the $1196.40-$1346.85 strong up-move.    •  Slightly oversold conditions on the 4-hourly chart prompted some short-covering amid resurfacing global growth concerns following today's sluggish Euro-zone PMI prints.   •  However, given that the commodity has already confirmed a near-term bearish break through a descending triangle, the current bounce might still be seen as a selling opportunity.   •  Hence, the recovery seems more likely to confront some fresh supply and fizzle out near the triangle support break-point, now turned resistance - around the $1281-82 region.   •  Any subsequent up-move seems more likely to remain capped near the $1289 confluence barrier - comprising of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.Gold daily chart 

Although the weekly EIA data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending April 12, crude oil prices struggl

Saudi Arabia's Crude oil drops to 6.977 million BPD in February.Weak PMI data from Europe weigh on the sentiment.Although the weekly EIA data showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending April 12, crude oil prices struggled to gather momentum and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate closed the day below the $64 mark. Earlier today, the data published by the IHS Markit showed that the business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to contract in Germany and the eurozone, causing concerns over an economic performance weaker than initially expected in the euro area. The risk-off atmosphere weighed on the demand for commodities and pushed the WTI lower to $63.50 area. However, with the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) reporting that Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in February dropped to 6.977 million provided a modest boost and helped the WTI retrace its daily fall. There won't be any data releases that could impact crude oil's trading action in the remainder of the week and the WTI is likely to continue to fluctuate in its two-week-old $63.50 - $64.50 range.Technical levels 

US monthly retail sales overview Thursday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of March, schedule

US monthly retail sales overviewThursday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of March, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's 0.2% decline, consensus estimates point to a solid rebound in March. The headline sales are predicted to rise by 0.9% and sales excluding automobiles are seen climbing 0.7% during the reported month. Adding to this, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is also expected to climb 0.4% m/m as compared to a decrease of 0.2% recorded in the previous month.Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.64 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 19-pips in the first 15-minutes and 43-pips in the following 4-hours. Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.54 or higher could be in the range of 23-pips in the first 15-minutes and 79-pips in the following 4-hours. In the last five releases, the pair moved, on an average, 30-pips in the 15-minutes after the data release and 35-pips in the following 4-hours.How could it affect EUR/USD?Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels for trading the major: “Support awaits at 1.1230, the swing low that was seen last week. 1.1210 was a stubborn support line in early April and 1.1176 is the trough this year. 1.1115 follows and dates back to 2017.” “1.1280 was the bottom of the range before the drop. 1.1330 was a double top this week and the top of the range. 1.1360 and 1.1390 are next,” he added further.Key Notes   •  US Retail Sales Preview: Let the spending begin    •  EUR/USD Forecast: Not looking good ahead of Good Friday    •  EUR/USD consolidates the slide near 1.1250, US retail sales eyedAbout US retail salesThe Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
 

Citing sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Reuters recently reported that the Bank of Japan was likely to revise its inflation forecast to sa

Citing sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Reuters recently reported that the Bank of Japan was likely to revise its inflation forecast to say that it was now expected to fall short of its 2% target through the year ending in March 2022.Key quotesLikely to project inflation in fiscal 2021 to move above 1.5pct but fall short of 2pct. May slightly cut economic growth, inflation forecasts for fiscal 2019.

TD Securities analysts are looking for a 0.4% increase in the Canadian retail sales for February, in line with market estimates. Key Quotes “Motor veh

TD Securities analysts are looking for a 0.4% increase in the Canadian retail sales for February, in line with market estimates.Key Quotes“Motor vehicle sales should provide the main source of strength on higher preliminary sales, while higher gasoline prices will also a positive contribution. This should leave ex-auto sales to post a more modest 0.2% while volumes should also come in below the nominal print.”

• Upbeat UK retail sales data-led modest uptick turned out to be short-lived. • Resurfacing global growth concerns benefit USD’s relative safe-haven

   •  Upbeat UK retail sales data-led modest uptick turned out to be short-lived. 
   •  Resurfacing global growth concerns benefit USD’s relative safe-haven status.
   •  Traders now eye US monthly retail sales figures for some short-term impetus.
The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on upbeat UK retail sales data-led attempted bounce and has now moved on the verge of breaking below the key 1.30 psychological mark. Having repeatedly failed to find acceptance above the 1.3100 handle, the pair remained under some selling pressure for the third consecutive session and dropped to near two-week lows amid a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand. Today's sluggish German/overall Euro-zone PMIs revived fears about a global economic slowdown and spread jitters across financial markets, which eventually benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart. Apart from resurgent USD demand, persistent Brexit uncertainty further collaborated to the ongoing slide, though it remains to be seen if the current fall is categorized as a fresh technical breakdown as Brexit headlines could easily swing it either direction. It is worth reporting that the UK lawmakers will return from their Easter break next week and any fresh Brexit developments will play an important role in driving the near-term sentiment surrounding the British Pound and help determine the near-term direction.  In the meantime, today's US economic docket - highlighting the release of US monthly retail sales, might be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities amid relatively lighter trading conditions ahead of a long Easter weekend. Technical levels to watchSustained weakness below the 1.30 handle is likely to accelerate the fall towards challenging the very important 200-day SMA, currently near the 1.2970 region, which if broken should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move. On the flip side, the 1.3050-55 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance, above which the pair is likely to make an attempt towards reclaiming the 1.3100 round figure mark.
 

According to analysts at TD Securities, strong March auto sales, accelerating gasoline prices and a firm rebound in the (core) control group should un

According to analysts at TD Securities, strong March auto sales, accelerating gasoline prices and a firm rebound in the (core) control group should underpin a solid 1.3% m/m jump in the US retail sales, following a 0.2% decline in February.Key Quotes“We expect the 0.7% m/m improvement in sales in the key control group to be supported by a normalization in tax refunds, rising real disposable income and a still humming labor market.” “Conversely, the Philly Fed index is expected to post a modest 2.7 point decline to 11.0 in April. Recall that the index registered a significant improvement in March, posting an eye-popping 17.8 jump in the index to a five-month high of 13.7 in March.”

The bears appear to have taken a breather last hour, allowing a brief consolidative mode in the EUR/USD pair near the midpoint of the 1.12 handle, as

Dismal Eurozone data refuel global growth worries.The Euro hammered broadly alongside risk assets.Some consolidation likely ahead of US economic releases. The bears appear to have taken a breather last hour, allowing a brief consolidative mode in the EUR/USD pair near the midpoint of the 1.12 handle, as they await the US macro releases for the next push lower. The spot stalled its sell-off but remains within a striking distance of fresh weekly lows reached at 1.1244 after the much-awaited German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI numbers disappointed markets and re-ignited Euro area growth concerns that intensify global economic slowdown fears. On the data release, the Euro eroded as much as 50-pips against its American counterpart and finally broke its range trade around the 1.13 handle witnessed so far this week. From a technical perspective, the major remained exposed to downside risks given the repeated failure to close above the 1.13 handle and the double top formed at the 1.1325 key resistance. As explained by Haresh Menghani, FXStreet’s Analyst, “oscillators have been gaining negative traction on 4-hourly/daily charts but are already pointing to slightly oversold conditions on the 1-hourly charts, warranting some consolidation. However, the set-up now seems to have turned firmly in favor of bearish traders and hence, a follow-through weakness, towards testing the 1.1200 mark, remains a distinct possibility.” Looking ahead, all eyes remain on the US data flow, including the key retail sales, Philly Fed manufacturing gauge and jobless claims, for further trading momentum, as the US dollar remains in weekly tops vs. its major peers amid souring risk appetite.EUR/USD Technical Levels 

The USD/CAD dropped below the 1.33 mark on Wednesday before staging a strong recovery and closing the day virtually unchanged near mid-1.33s. With the

Risk-off mood boosts demand for the greenback.Oil trades below $64 following yesterday's drop.Coming up: Retail sales data from the U.S. and Canada.The USD/CAD dropped below the 1.33 mark on Wednesday before staging a strong recovery and closing the day virtually unchanged near mid-1.33s. With the risk-off flows starting to dominate the FX markets, once again, the greenback gathered strength and lifted the pair to a fresh daily high above the 1.3370 mark. At the moment, the pair is up 0.22% on a daily basis at 1.3372. Today's disappointing Manufacturing PMI readings from Germany and the euro area revived concerns over the economic slowdown in the euro area becoming more severe and lasting longer than expected to trigger a flight-to-safety wave, which the greenback has been capitalizing on since the start of the year. At the moment, the US Dollar Index is up 0.3% on a daily basis at 97.30, reflecting the broad USD strength. Later in the day, retail sales from Canada and the United States will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey pointed out to a weakening business sentiment and if today's data surprise to the downside, we could see the loonie facing a renewed selling pressure. Additionally, weekly jobless claims data and preliminary Markit Manufacturing & Services PMI data from the U.S. and the ADP Employment report from Canada will be featured in the economic calendar as well. Meanwhile, after closing the day in the negative territory amid the higher-than-expected in the U.S. crude oil inventories, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is trading flat on the day near $63.70 today, making it tough for the commodity-sensitive loonie to grab investors' attention.Technical levels to consider 

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s March Retail Sales jumped a strong 1.1% m/m, against market expectations of a decline. Key Quotes “Most c

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s March Retail Sales jumped a strong 1.1% m/m, against market expectations of a decline.Key Quotes“Most categories showed strong gains, including food, clothing, and household goods (all 1%+). Today's figures put 19Q1 retail spending at 1.5% q/q, and suggests that GDP growth could well come in higher than the BoE's current expectation (with a sharp unwind likely next quarter).” “It's interesting to note that the spending data through the recent heightened Brexit uncertainty (Mar-19: 6.7% y/y) closely mirrors that in the uncertain aftermath of the referendum in 2016 (Aug-16: 6.2% y/y).”

Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING, explains that the Eurozone’s flash estimate for composite PMI indicator for April came in at 51.3, a decli

Peter Vanden Houte, chief economist at ING, explains that the Eurozone’s flash estimate for composite PMI indicator for April came in at 51.3, a decline from 51.6 in March and once again undershooting the consensus expectation of 51.8.Key Quotes“The Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8, though this is still in contractionary territory. The service sector PMI fell back to 52.5 from 53.3 in March.  New order growth picked up slightly, but new export orders fell for the seventh straight month.” “Employment growth increased but remained among the lowest since 2016. Although cost inflation was higher, partially driven by higher oil prices, average prices charged for goods and services rose at the slowest rate in 20 months, a testimony of the current lack of pricing power. No wonder consumer price inflation is still going nowhere.” “Since the second quarter of 2018, the eurozone economy has been persistently undershooting expectations. Today’s figures continue this long string of underperformance. But we shouldn’t get too pessimistic either. The recent upturn in China is a boon to Europe’s economy as it is much more dependent on foreign demand than the US.”

Toshimitsu Motegi, who serves as Japan's economy minister said he may travel to Washington to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer next week

Toshimitsu Motegi, who serves as Japan's economy minister said he may travel to Washington to meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer next week.  The announcement came after Lighthizer, a trade hawk, pointed his criticism to Japan, saying the US has a very large trade deficit with the Land of the Rising Sun. Talks with the European Union are set to start soon as talks with China are nearing the end.  Japan and the US were the largest signatories of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an accord the US signed but retreated from early in 2017.

AUD/USD is trading above 0.7150, down from the highs but clinging onto the uptrend support line that forms part of the channel. The Aussie is trading

AUD/USD is trading above 0.7150, down from the highs but clinging onto the uptrend support line that forms part of the channel. The Aussie is trading within the channel since early April. Uptrend support currently hits the price at around 0.7150. The 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart also supports the pair around 0.7155. Momentum turned negative and the Relative Strength Index is leaning lower. All in all, bears are mounting an attack but bulls have some defenses to hold onto. Further support is at 0.7140, followed by 0.7115, and 0.7085. Resistance awaits at 0.7175 and 0.7210. There are two contradicting fundamental forces. On one hand, the Australian dollar enjoys an upbeat jobs report. Australia gained 25.7K jobs in March, better than expected. Moreover, the details show that these were overwhelmingly full-time jobs. The unemployment rate stands at 5%. On the other hand, there are growing concerns about global growth. Germany, the locomotive of the euro-zone, is probably suffering a recession in its manufacturing sector, with another disappointing purchasing managers' index. The European slowdown can spread to other places. 

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that at 6.2% year on year, UK’s retail sales excluding fuel are now growing at the fastest

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that at 6.2% year on year, UK’s retail sales excluding fuel are now growing at the fastest annual pace, since the end of 2016.Key Quotes“Despite all the Brexit noise, the latest surge in UK retail sales indicates consumer spending performed a little bit better during the first quarter – at least at face value.” “We think it’s worth treating these latest figures with a touch of caution. Easter falls later this year, which might typically be associated with lower sales during March relative to other years. Similar data from the British Retail Consortium also suggested that spending was more muted during March, aside from some increased purchases related to Mother’s Day. The latest surge in retail spending also comes at a time where consumer confidence is around the lowest it has been since 2013.” “That said, we think consumer spending could continue to perform well in the near-term. The latest Brexit extension to the end of October could see consumer confidence rise a little over the next couple of months as some of the ‘no deal’ concerns temporarily dissipate. That, combined with prospects of a sunny Easter trading period, makes for a better backdrop for retailers as we head towards the summer.”

Standard Chartered analysts point out that the China’s asset management industry suffered a contraction last year due to the introduction of stringent

Standard Chartered analysts point out that the China’s asset management industry suffered a contraction last year due to the introduction of stringent guidelines.Key Quotes“Total assets under management (AUM) of wealth management products (WMPs) sold by banks, trusts, funds, brokerages, futures and insurance companies fell for the first time in 2018, to CNY 121.6tn at year-end from CNY 124.0tn at end-2017; but fine-tuning of the policy tone in mid-2018 led to a mild recovery in H2-2018.” “We expect China’s asset management industry to recover in 2019. Financial conditions have eased in recent months, mitigating the growth downturn. The authorities have become more receptive to the role of shadow banking in supporting the real economy. While there is no directional change in the regulation of the asset management industry, the grace period to exit non-compliant products will likely be extended. The share of NAV products is likely to rise over time.” “We expect banks to set up wealth management subsidiaries to ring-fence the business from the parent bank. For non-banks, trust companies and securities firms were hit hard by the new guidelines, while public and private funds continued to grow.”

The Japanese Cabinet Office released its monthly economic assessment report, with the key highlights found below. Consumer prices are rising moderatel

The Japanese Cabinet Office released its monthly economic assessment report, with the key highlights found below. Consumer prices are rising moderately recently. Japanese companies are showing cautiousness. The Japanese government maintains assessment of the overall economy.

Gold (futures on Comex) staged a sharp $4+ reversal last hour from fresh 2019 lows of 1273.05, as a sudden turnaround in the risk sentiment called on

Reverses sharply as risk-off back in vogue on disappointing Eurozone data. Technical set up suggests a minor correction likely in short-term.Focus on US data, US/China trade talks.  Gold (futures on Comex) staged a sharp $4+ reversal last hour from fresh 2019 lows of 1273.05, as a sudden turnaround in the risk sentiment called on the gold bulls for rescue amid a resurgence of concerns over dwindling Eurozone economic growth, as underscored by disappointing German and Eurozone private sector activity report for April. The recent market optimism fuelled by a positive slew of macro news from the US and China combined with upbeat US corporate earnings was quickly overshadowed by the renewed Euro area growth concerns. Therefore, markets immediately resorted to safety in the traditional safe-haven gold and propelled the prices sharply higher. Meanwhile, the corrective move higher in the bullion is also chart-driven, as the 4-hour chart pointed to the RSI being in the oversold territory. Therefore, the prices could recover further to the next upside target of 1280 levels (round number). However, markets view the latest uptick as a dead cat bounce, as the Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund and evidence of investors’ confidence in the yellow metal, still remained around their lowest levels since Oct. 27th. Further, the daily chart continues to back the ongoing bearish bias (as explained here). Hence, the rates could stall its corrective bounce and resume the downside in the coming days. In the meantime, the commodity traders look forward to the US retails sales, jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index for near-term trading opportunities heading into the long Easter weekend.Gold Technical Levels 

Mats Hydén, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggest that they are expecting no change to the Riksbank policy rate at the announcement 25 April, but a sligh

Mats Hydén, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggest that they are expecting no change to the Riksbank policy rate at the announcement 25 April, but a slight downward revision to the rate path near-term and a risk for less bond buying.Key Quotes“The market is currently very soft in its pricing of the Riksbank’s future policy path. It is very unlikely that the Riksbank will revise its rate path downward all the way to where the market is. The risk-reward for betting on a soft rate decision is in our view thus poor.” “One of the more interesting scenarios, although not our main scenario, is the one in which Riksbank is very clear about an intention to hike in September or October while making a major flattening of the rate path 2020+. This would be similar to what the Bank of Norway did recently, and it must surely be interpreted as change to the “reaction function”. It is unusual that the Riksbank uses kinks on the rate path as forward guidance and it would be a very clear signal that it would take a lot to derail yet another hike.” “Unfortunately, this scenario is also very difficult to map onto possible market reactions. Since a kinked rate path would contain additional hikes while also signaling a changed reaction function it seems reasonable to us that SEK rates increase relative EUR rates in this scenario. But also, in the other scenarios above, the market could very well interpret the Riksbank as relatively hawkish compared to Fed or the ECB.”

• A slump in the shared currency revived USD demand and exerted some pressure. • Surprisingly stronger UK retail sales data underpin GBP and helped l

   •  A slump in the shared currency revived USD demand and exerted some pressure.
   •  Surprisingly stronger UK retail sales data underpin GBP and helped limit losses.
   •  Traders now eye US retail sales data for some impetus ahead of Easter holidays.
The GBP/USD pair quickly recovered around 20-pips and reversed a major part of its early slide to near two-week tops on upbeat UK macro data.  The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick to mid-1.3000s and met with some fresh supply amid a modest US Dollar uptick. Today's sluggish Euro-zone PMI prints reignited global growth worries and spread some fresh jitters across global financial markets, reviving the greenback's relative safe-haven status. The pair, however, managed to find some support at lower levels following the release of UK retail sales figures, coming in to show an unexpected 1.1% m/m in March. Adding to this, the yearly rate and core retail sales (excluding fuel) also surpassed expectations and provided a minor lift to the British Pound. Meanwhile, the uptick lacked any strong bullish conviction as investors still seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets amid the prolonged Brexit uncertainties, despite the lack of any fresh updates in wake of the Easter recess in the UK Parliament.  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying, possibly a sustained move beyond the 1.3100 handle, before confirming that the pair might have actually bottomed out in the near-term and positioning for any further appreciating move.  Later during the early North-American session, the US monthly retail sales data might influence the USD price dynamics and further collaborate towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities amid relatively thin market conditions ahead of the long Easter weekend.Technical levels to watch 

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, points out that the Australia’s March Labour Force Survey reported a solid 25.7k gain in employment, which points to

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, points out that the Australia’s March Labour Force Survey reported a solid 25.7k gain in employment, which points to a robust trend so far this year with a three month average of 23.7k compared to 21.8k in February.Key Quotes“Unemployment did bump up to 5.0% (5.05% at two decimal places) as the 0.1ppt gain in the participation rate to 65.7% drove a 42.7k gain in the labour force.” “In the last year just about all of the gains in employment were full-time with part-time employment lifting just 0.4%. In fact, female part-time employment has contracted 0.4% in the year. But by gender female full-time employment lifted 150.7k/4.8% in the year while male full-time employment is up 139.1k/2.6%yr.” “For now, employment has held it together in 2019. We are waiting to see election uncertainty has an impact over the next few months as well as the building dwelling construction slowdown in NSW in particular but also in Victoria.”

The UK retail sales jumped 1.1% over the month in March, surprising the markets to the upside while core retail sales stripping the auto motor fuel sa

The UK retail sales jumped by 1.1% m/m in Mar.The core retail sales in the UK rebounded by 1.2% m/m in Mar.The UK retail sales jumped 1.1% over the month in March, surprising the markets to the upside while core retail sales stripping the auto motor fuel sales also unexpectedly rose 1.2% m/m. On an annualized basis, the UK retail sales raced 6.7% in March versus 4.6% expected while the core retail sales also advanced 6.2% in the reported month versus 4.0% previous and 3.8% expectations.  

Hong Kong SAR Unemployment rate remains at 2.8% in March

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 6.2% above expectations (4%) in March

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 6.7%, above forecasts (4.6%) in March

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (-0.3%) in March: Actual (1.1%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above expectations (-0.3%) in March

The USDJPY pair finally broke its recent range trade around the 112 handle and lost nearly 20-pips quickly, as the safe-haven bids for Yen got a fresh

Yen regains poise, as risk sentiment sours on disappointing German/ Eurozone PMIsSellers to remain in charge ahead of US retail sales and Philly Fed manufacturing index?The USDJPY pair finally broke its recent range trade around the 112 handle and lost nearly 20-pips quickly, as the safe-haven bids for Yen got a fresh lift after a renewed risk-aversion wave gripped the European markets on disappointing German and Eurozone manufacturing PMI numbers.Downbeat private sector activity report from the bloc’s economic powerhouse, Germany, re-ignited economic slowdown concerns and dampened the risk sentiment, with markets fleeing to safety bets such as the Yen. Moreover, the ongoing weakness in the US Treasury yields and S&P 50 futures accentuated the downside break in the spot, with sellers back in command after struggling to regain control for almost 5 straight days. However, the buyers appear to lurk near 111.75 region as they manage to find some support from a fresh leg up in the US dollar across its main competitors, in the wake courtesy of the EUR/USD sell-off and overall risk-aversion. The USD index jolted higher to fresh weekly tops at 97.26, having consolidated near the 97 handle. Markets now eagerly await the US retail sales, weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing data releases to validate the bearish break. A slew of disappointing US economic news could open the doors for a test of 111.50/111 levels.USD/JPY Technical Levels 

• After repeated failures near the 1.1320-30 region, the pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday and tumbled to fresh weekly on dis

   •  After repeated failures near the 1.1320-30 region, the pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday and tumbled to fresh weekly on dismal Euro-zone PMI prints.   •  The negative momentum dragged the pair below 200-hour SMA and the lower end of a short-term ascending trend-channel formation, confirming a near-term bearish breakdown.   •  Oscillators have been gaining negative traction on 4-hourly/daily charts but are already pointing to slightly oversold conditions on the 1-hourly charts, warranting some consolidation.   •  However, the set-up now seems to have turned firmly in favor of bearish traders and hence, a follow-through weakness, towards testing the 1.1200 mark, remains a distinct possibility.EUR/USD 1-hourly chart 

According to analysts at Rabobank, today’s major news focus is going to be the US Mueller Report, which will soon be released in a lightly-redacted fo

According to analysts at Rabobank, today’s major news focus is going to be the US Mueller Report, which will soon be released in a lightly-redacted format.Key Quotes“It’s 400 pages long – and yet everyone is going to have an opinion out the door in seconds, most of them supporting their own political biases, of course. Will there be anything truly unfortunate in it for the White House, or will Trump be in a position to cast more orangey snark-it at the media?” “In the UK we have retail sales, seen -0.3% m/m headline and core, though in y/y terms both remain reasonable; in Canada we also see retail spending, expected 0.4% m/m and 0.2% ex-autos; and in the US it’s more ker-ching with retail sales for March seen up 1.0% m/m headline and 0.4% ex-autos.” “There is also the US Philly Fed, and then US Markit manufacturing (52.8), services (55.0), and composite PMIs to look ahead to. The Fed’s Bostic also speaks at an economic roundtable event.”

The Eurozone manufacturing sector activity showed some improvement in the month of April, the latest manufacturing activity survey from IHS/Markit res

The Eurozone manufacturing sector activity showed some improvement in the month of April, the latest manufacturing activity survey from IHS/Markit research showed. The Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at a 2-month highs of 47.8 in April vs. 47.9 expected and 47.5 last while the services PMI fell sharply to 3-month lows of 52.5 vs. 53.3 last. The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite rose declined from 51.6 in March to 51.3 in April, hitting fresh 3-month lows.

Italy Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) above expectations (-3.9%) in February: Actual (-2.9%)

Italy Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) registered at -2.7%, below expectations (-1.6%) in February

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (-0.8%) in February

Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) came in at 1.3%, above forecasts (-2.7%) in February

European Monetary Union Markit PMI Composite came in at 51.3, below expectations (51.8) in April

European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.8, below expectations (47.9) in April

European Monetary Union Markit Services PMI below expectations (53.2) in April: Actual (52.5)

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that in the search for currency manipulators the semi-annual UST report o

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that in the search for currency manipulators the semi-annual UST report on FX policies due shortly, is important.Key Quotes“We find that no country is likely to be labelled a currency manipulator. Japan and Taiwan may have come closest.” “China only breaches one criteria. Its bilateral trade surplus with the US continues to grow, yet its current account surplus has shrunk and FX intervention has been limited. A stronger CNY suggests that Treasury concerns about the currency may soften.” “India and Korea also breach just one criteria, according to our estimates. So does Thailand but this country is not officially on the list.” “India is likely to be removed from the list next time as it is the second consecutive report that the country has failed to breach two criteria.” “We doubt that removal from the list will mean that India steps up FX intervention given the risk of being added back to the monitoring list. As such we think INR will remain supported in the months ahead, with RBI continuing to limit USD buying interventions.”

According to analysts at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has failed to make much impression on the 20 day ma at 1.3096 and is easing lower. Key Quotes “The

According to analysts at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has failed to make much impression on the 20 day ma at 1.3096 and is easing lower.Key Quotes“The focus is on the 200 day ma at 1.2969 – this maintains a neutral to positive bias very near term, however upside interest appears to be waning. Above 1.3217 (25th January high) will introduce scope up to the 1.3351/82 resistance.” “Below the 200 day ma lies the 1.2959 55 week ma and the double Fibo retracement at 1.2900/1.2895, this is pretty solid support that is expected to hold the initial test. This guards the recent low at 1.2772.” “The market recently reached 1.3382 before failing. Should the 55 week ma hold, our overall target remains the 1.3552 200 week ma.” “Below 1.2772 we would allow for losses to the 1.2669/62 15th January low and August low and possibly the 1.2609/78.6% retracement.”

Standard Chartered analysts note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) clearly pivoted towards an easing bias at the March meeting. Key Quotes “

Standard Chartered analysts note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) clearly pivoted towards an easing bias at the March meeting.Key Quotes“Governor Orr has since reiterated the central bank’s easing bias (in interviews), although he noted that a mixed picture – high terms of trade and capacity constraints versus below-target inflation and slowing global economic growth – makes the next rate decision difficult.” “Orr also said the RBNZ is watching quarterly inflation and labour-market data, but added that his real desire was not to continuously wait for one more print to decide, implying that the May meeting is essentially ‘live’.” “We now expect the RBNZ to cut the official cash rate (OCR) to 1.5% from 1.75% in May; we previously expected it to keep rates on hold. The weak Q1 CPI headline inflation print provides an opportunity for the already dovish RBNZ to cut the OCR, in our view.” “We believe the RBNZ’s dovishness stems from concerns over global growth and poor business sentiment. Business confidence fell in March to the weakest since September 2018 and the manufacturing and services indices dropped to the lowest in eight and nine months, respectively. This likely reinforces concerns about low business sentiment weighing on domestic spending.” “However, we think this will be a pre-emptive cut and is unlikely to be the start of an easing cycle. Our call for a rate cut in May is due to the RBNZ’s dovishness on external headwinds; we maintain our view that a sharp downturn in growth is unlikely.”

China's Commerce Ministry was out with some positive trade-related headlines in the last hour and said that there has been new progress in negotiating

China's Commerce Ministry was out with some positive trade-related headlines in the last hour and said that there has been new progress in negotiating the text of a US-China trade deal.Additional quotes:   •  Plenty of work still remaining with the US on the trade deal.
   •  China and the US to keep in close contact in various effective ways.

German manufacturing activity saw a minor rebound in April, the latest manufacturing activity report from IHS/Markit research showed this Thursday. Th

German manufacturing activity saw a minor rebound in April, the latest manufacturing activity report from IHS/Markit research showed this Thursday. The German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) remained into contraction territory and arrived at 44.5 versus 45.0 expected and 44.1 previous. Meanwhile, services PMI rose to a seven-month high level of 55.6 as against previous months reading of 55.4 and 55.1 anticipated. The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index hit 2-month highs of 52.1 in April, up from 51.4 booked in March. Key comments from Phil Smith, Principal Economist at IHS Markit:““The overall picture for Germany’s private sector has changed very little according to April’s flash data, with strong growth across the services economy continuing to counteract the export-led weakness in manufacturing. Though the PMI has ticked up from March’s 69-month low, it’s merely signalling the same modest rate of underlying growth as seen on average over the opening quarter of the year.” “Slight upticks in the manufacturing indices for output, new orders and employment saw the headline Manufacturing PMI post its first rise in nine months, albeit with the latest reading nonetheless the second-lowest since mid-2012. Amid reports of a declining car industry, strong competition across Europe and generally subdued global demand, the data showed another steep drop in German goods exports and the lowest confidence among manufacturers for six-and-a-half years.”
Markit's purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector came out at 44.5 points in the preliminary read for April, below 45 expected and only barely above 44.1 seen in March. EUR/USD fell out of the tight trading range and falls to 1.1270. Support awaits at 1.1250 and 1.1210 and resistance is at 1.1330. more to come

Germany Markit Services PMI registered at 55.6 above expectations (55.1) in April

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 44.5 below forecasts (45) in April

Sweden Unemployment Rate came in at 7.1%, above forecasts (6.6%) in March

Germany Markit PMI Composite above forecasts (51.7) in April: Actual (52.1)

• The cross stalled its recent positive momentum near the 126.75-80 supply zone and has been consolidating within a broader range over the past three

   •  The cross stalled its recent positive momentum near the 126.75-80 supply zone and has been consolidating within a broader range over the past three trading session.   •  The fact that the cross has already found acceptance above 100-day SMA, coupled with bullish oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts support prospects for additional gains.   •  Hence, any meaningful pullback might now be seen as an opportunity to initiate some fresh bullish positions for a move towards March swing highs - around the 147.40-50 region.   •  The latter coincides with the very important 200-day SMA, which if cleared would be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for an extension of the appreciating move.EUR/JPY daily chart 

UK retail sales Overview The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.3% m/m in March, follo

UK retail sales OverviewThe UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.3% m/m in March, following a 0.4% rise seen in February. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 4.6% over the year in the reported month, up from 4.0% booked previously. Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen declining 0.3% m/m while rising 4.0% y/y.Deviation impact on GBP/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.How could it affect GBP/USD?FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “The 1.30 round figure mark is likely to act as immediate support, which if broken might expose the very important 200-day SMA support, currently near the 1.2965 region. A convincing break through the mentioned support will reinforce a near-term bearish breakdown and turn the pair vulnerable to aim towards testing sub-1.2900 level.” “On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront some fresh supply near the 1.3085 region and is closely followed by the 1.3100 round figure mark. The latter coincides with a short-term descending trend-line resistance, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the pair back towards the 1.3200 neighborhood amid relatively thin trading conditions ahead of the Easter holidays,” Haresh adds.Key NotesGBP/JPY defends 200-hour MA ahead of UK retail sales GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Closing on confluence of key resistances at 1.3053About the UK retail salesThe retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.  

France Markit PMI Composite registered at 50 above expectations (49.7) in April

France Markit Services PMI above forecasts (49.8) in April: Actual (50.5)

France Markit Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 below forecasts (50) in April

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that there is no change to the government view on raising sales tax. Su

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that there is no change to the government view on raising sales tax. Suga comes out with a clarification after Kyodo News reported earlier today that Japan could delay the October sales tax hike.

• News that N. Korea test-fired a tactical guided weapon boosts JPY’s safe-haven demand. • A subdued USD price action further collaborated to the pai

   •  News that N. Korea test-fired a tactical guided weapon boosts JPY’s safe-haven demand.
   •  A subdued USD price action further collaborated to the pair’s slide to fresh weekly lows. 
   •  Traders now eye US monthly retail sales data for a fresh impetus ahead of Easter holidays.
The USD/JPY pair met with some fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed at the lower end of its weekly trading range, just below the 112.00 handle. The pair continued with its struggle to sustain at higher levels and once again failed near the 112.15 region (YTD tops), rather came under some renewed selling pressure in reaction to the news that North Korea has test-fired a new tactical guided weapon. The latest geopolitical development largely offset optimism led by a report that the US and China may sign a long-negotiated trade deal in late May or early June and provided a strong boost to the Japanese Yen's perceived safe-haven status on Thursday. This coupled with a subdued US Dollar price action, further weighed down by a sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, further collaborated to the pair's slide to fresh weekly lows, albeit the selling pressure now seems to have abated near the 111.85 region. Moving ahead, today's US economic docket - highlighting the release of monthly retail sales, will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus amid reviving safe-haven demand and relatively thin trading conditions ahead of the Easter holidays.Technical levels to watch 

TD Securities analysts point out that for the US economy, anecdotal evidence from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggests activity expanded at a sli

TD Securities analysts point out that for the US economy, anecdotal evidence from the Federal Reserve's Beige Book suggests activity expanded at a slightly better pace in late March and early April as a few districts reported a strengthening in growth conditions, while the rest reported a similar slight-to-moderate growth outlook as in the previous report.Key Quotes“Evidence on consumer spending was mixed (more downbeat for retailers and auto dealers), while the outlook for tourism was more supportive. Notably, manufacturing activity and home sales appeared to have strengthened during the period.”

According to analysts at Commerzbank, EUR/USD continues to hold steady at the 55 and 100 day moving averages at 1.1305/47, as they view it as consolid

According to analysts at Commerzbank, EUR/USD continues to hold steady at the 55 and 100 day moving averages at 1.1305/47, as they view it as consolidating.Key Quotes“The 1.1176 recent low is regarded as an interim low and we suspect that the market is trying to base but needs to do more work (we note the 13 count on the weekly chart and this adds weight to the idea of a potential base).” “Initial resistance is the 100 day ma at 1.1347 and the resistance line at 1.1388 ahead of the 200 day ma at 1.1440. The cross should target the 1.1570 January high, together with the 55 week ma at 1.1551. We have conflicting Elliott wave counts intraday and recently tightened our stops.” “Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs OverviewAmongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 47.9 for April vs. 47.5 seen in the previous month. The Eurozone services sector PMI is seen coming in at 53.2 in the reported month versus 53.3 last.            The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is seen arriving at 45.0 in April, a tad firmer from March’s 44.1 final print while the index for the services sector is expected to tick lower to 55.1 this month versus 55.4 seen in the previous month.How could they affect EUR/USD?Upbeat manufacturing PMI readings could help the EUR/USD pair with a sustained break above the 1.1325 (double top). Above which the upside momentum could gain traction, with eyes set on 1.1348/50 (100-DMA/ psychological levels). A break above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1393/1.1400 (Mar 22 high/ round number). On the flip side, if the readings miss the consensus forecasts, the spot could extend southwards in a bid to test the 1.1279 (Apr 16 low), below which the next supports are placed at 1.1260 (20-DMA) and 1.1228 (Apr 10 low).Key NotesEurope: Focus on PMIs today – TDS EUR/USD Technical Analysis: 1.1325 “double-top” gains attention ahead of Eurozone PMIs EUR/USD to drop 50-70 pips on disappointing Eurozone PMIs – Danske BankAbout German/ Eurozone flash PMIsThe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

Switzerland Imports (MoM) increased to 17858M in March from previous 16689M

Switzerland Exports (MoM) rose from previous 19815M to 21037M in March

GBP/JPY’s pullback from the April 15 high of 147.00 has run out of steam at the 200-hour moving average (MA) line in the last 24 hours. As of writing,

The 200-hour moving average (MA) has put a floor under the GBP/JPY pair in the last 24 hours. The pair, however, could find acceptance below the key average if the UK retail sales data disappoints expectations by a big margin. GBP/JPY’s pullback from the April 15 high of 147.00 has run out of steam at the 200-hour moving average (MA) line in the last 24 hours.  As of writing, the JPY cross is currently trading at 145.95, representing a 0.10 percent drop on the day. Meanwhile, the 200-hour MA is currently located at 145.88.  The pair could bounce up strongly from that key average support if the UK retail sales for March, due at 08:30 GMT, print well above the estimated month-on-month growth of 0.9 percent, signaling a bigger rebound in consumer spending from the previous month’s 0.2 percent drop. The gains could be bigger if the core retail sales also better estimates.  That said, the 200-hour MA average support will likely be breached in a convincing manner if the consumer spending unexpectedly drops, validating the latest Reuters poll, which shows the economists expect the Bank of England to delay the rate hike to Q1, 2020 from Q4, 2019. Pivot Levels 

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that they are forecasting the Australia’s March quarter CPI to print 0.1%qtr with the annual pace easing ba

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that they are forecasting the Australia’s March quarter CPI to print 0.1%qtr with the annual pace easing back to 1.4%yr from 1.8%yr.Key Quotes“The March quarter is a seasonally soft quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of +0.2ppt. The seasonally adjusted CPI is forecast to rise 0.3%.” “Core inflation is forecast to print 0.3%qtr (0.33% at two decimal places) holding the annual pace at 1.6%yr. The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.34%qtr and the weighted median is forecast to rise 0.33%qtr.” “Core inflation is to remain well below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs hold back modest inflationary pressures elsewhere. Overlay a competitive deflationary pressure in consumer goods and it is hard to see core inflation breaking much higher any time soon.”

Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ, notes that the Australian employment rose a strong 25.7k in March, following an upwardly revised rise of 10.

Felicity Emmett, senior economist at ANZ, notes that the Australian employment rose a strong 25.7k in March, following an upwardly revised rise of 10.7k in February (previously +4.6k).Key Quotes“Full-time jobs dominated the gain with a rise of 48.3k, while part-time jobs fell 22.6k. While the full-time/part-time split jumps around month to month, the annual growth rates tell a compelling story – full-time jobs are up 3.4% y/y, while part-time employment is up just 0.4%.” “After edging down last month, the unemployment rate ticked back up to 5.0%, while the participation rate rose to 65.7% (from 65.6%). The underemployment rate also edged up (from 8.1% to 8.2%).” “Across the states, unemployment rose in Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania, while it ticked lower in New South Wales and Victoria.” “The recent strength in the labour market is consistent with the RBA’s business liaison showing firms’ hiring and investment intentions remain solid. But as the minutes from the RBA’s April meeting acknowledged “forward-looking indicators of labour demand had been mixed in recent months”.” “Our ANZ Labour Market Indicator suggests that employment growth will slow, but that the unemployment rate should remain broadly flat. If we are correct, this should keep the RBA on the sidelines. The next major data input for the RBA is the Q1 CPI due out next week, where we expect a 0.4% q/q and 1.7% y/y result for underlying inflation.”

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.7%) in March

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in March: Actual (-0.1%)

Switzerland Trade Balance climbed from previous 3125M to 3179M in March

Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the Europe, flash PMIs for April are released in and will be a key event. Key Quotes “For the German Manuf

Analysts at TD Securities point out that in the Europe, flash PMIs for April are released in and will be a key event.Key Quotes“For the German Manufacturing PMI, lagged Asian data point to continued spillovers and thus yet another deterioration in the series to 43.1 (mkt: 45.0), still in sharp contraction territory. We note a growing divergence between the industrial sector in Germany vs the rest of the euro area. A resurgence in the "gillets jaunes" protests in France likely held the Services PMI there unchanged at 49.1 (mkt: 49.8).”

EUR/USD highlights double tops near 1.1325 as a crucial resistance contrasts to an ascending trend-line stretched since early April.

EUR/USD is taking the bids around 1.1300 ahead of the European open on Thursday. The pair highlights double tops near 1.1325 as a crucial resistance contrasts to an ascending trend-line stretched since early April. From the current levels, 1.1310 can act as intermediate halt ahead of challenging 1.1325, a break of which can propel the quote to further up towards 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of its April 10-17 moves, at 1.1340. It should also be noted that 100-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart at 1.1350 and more than three-month-old downward sloping trend-line resistance, at 1.1390, may challenge Bulls after 1.1340. Meanwhile, 1.1280 can offer nearby support to the pair ahead of 1.1270 level comprising aforementioned trend-line.  Given the prices drop under 1.1270, 1.1250, 1.1210 and 1.1180 might flash on Bears’ radar.EUR/USD hourly chartTrend: Bullish  

FX option expiries for Apr 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1200 974m 1.1225 1.9b 1.1250 647m 1

FX option expiries for Apr 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1200 974m 1.1225 1.9b  1.1250 647m  1.1300 1.4b  1.1320 1.1b  1.1325 2.1b  1.1350 1.2b - USD/JPY: USD amounts  111.00 523m  111.10 358m  111.60 491m  112.00 1.5b  112.10 720m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts  0.7175 1.1b 0.7210 725m - USD/CAD: USD amounts  1.3250 536m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts  0.6735 205m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts  0.8610 452m 0.8700 435m

AUD/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (AUD1MRR), a gauge of puts to calls on the Australian currency, is currently trading at -0.60, the highest l

AUD/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (AUD1MRR), a gauge of puts to calls on the Australian currency, is currently trading at -0.60, the highest level since April 18, 2018, indicating fading demand for the AUD bearish bets (put options).  While the negative number indicates the premium pair for puts (demand) is still higher than that for calls.  The premium for puts, however, is at one-year lows and has dropped sharply in the last 20 days. This is evident from AUD1MRR’s rise from -0.9 (March 29 low) to the current level of -0.60. The data indicates the AUD/USD could soon find acceptance above the 200-day moving average (MA), currently at 0.7194. The moving average has proved a tough nut to crack in the last 24 hours. AUD1MRR

GBP/USD is looking north, having defended 1.3020 with multiple long-tailed hourly candles. The currency pair is currently bid at 1.3048 and is fast cl

GBP/USD is looking north, having defended 1.3020 with multiple long-tailed hourly candles. The currency pair is currently bid at 1.3048 and is fast closing on 1.3053. That level marks the confluence of the descending (bearish) 50-hour moving average (MA) and the upper edge of the falling channel, as seen in the chart below. Hourly chartAn hourly close above 1.3053 would confirm falling channel breakout and open the doors to test of supply around 1.3085 (trendline connecting March 13 and March 27 highs).  The hourly RSI has already moved above 50.00 in favor of the bulls.  The will likely see a sustained break above 1.3053 and may rise well above 1.3085 if the UK retail sales for March print well above estimates. The data is due for release at 08:30 GMT. Trend: Bullish above 1.3053    

Shares on Asian exchanges followed global clues with small losses ahead of data from the EU and the UK, not to forget long weekend.

Shares on Asian exchanges followed global clues as investors remained cautious enough to book profits ahead of data from the EU and the UK, not to forget a long weekend due to the “Good Friday” holiday. Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq slipped under 0.1% whereas S&P500 lost 0.23% on Wednesday after expectations of policy change dragged healthcare stocks down. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan trimmed 0.2% off its nine-month high posted yesterday whereas Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.6% during press time.  Australia’s upbeat employment data couldn’t propel ASX 200 as speculations of no more rate-cuts from their largest customer, China, signaled future hardships for the domestic economy. China’s Hang Seng also shed 0.6% with India’s Sensex losing nearly 0.2%. Furthermore, Korea’s Kospi is more than 1.0% down on news that North Korea undertook weapon test whereas Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index bucked the trend with more than +0.6% gains after present President Joko Widodo seems a clear winner of the general election in unofficial results. The risk-sentiment was also witnessed in 10-year treasury bond from the US as it dropped from 2.59% to 2.57%. Investors may now concentrate on Markit purchasing manager index (PMI) figures from Germany and the EU, followed by the UK retail sales, in order to determine near-term trade direction.

Gold is currently trading at $1,271, the lowest level since Dec. 27. The drop to 3.5-month lows bolsters the already bearish technical setup on the da

Gold is currently trading at $1,271, the lowest level since Dec. 27.  The drop to 3.5-month lows bolsters the already bearish technical setup on the daily chart.  The metal, therefore, appears on track to test support at $1,263 (trendline rising from August and November lows), albeit after a minor bounce, as the 4-hour chart relative strength (RSI) looks to be creating a higher low (bullish divergence). 4-hour chartAs seen above, the latest 3.5-month low on price isn’t confirmed by the RSI, which could end up creating a higher low if price sees a minor bounce.  The bullish divergence, if confirmed, would open the doors for a minor bounce to $1,280. Trend: Minor bounce likely  

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that they are expecting the Bank Indonesia to maintain its 7-day reverse

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that they are expecting the Bank Indonesia to maintain its 7-day reverse repo rate at 6.00% at its policy meeting on 25 April.Key Quotes“Low and declining inflation, a firmer IDR and some stabilisation of external conditions, point to a more confident outlook for Bank Indonesia, paving the way for a rate cut, likely at the May meeting. Why not cut at this meeting? We think that Bank Indonesia will want to assess any change in government policies following the Presidential and Parliamentary elections that took place yesterday while also not wanting to ease until after the official results.” “IDR gains will offer reassurance IDR appreciation will be reassuring for Bank Indonesia, with the currency up 2.3% versus USD, year to date, and 1.25% month to date. The IDR's relatively high yield amid low global volatility has attracted investors hunting for carry.” “While BI will be encouraged by the IDR's gains, they still see the currency as undervalued and would likely not risk any reversal by abruptly lowering rates. Similarly Indonesia's bonds have been helped by a relatively high yield, low inflation and IDR stability, resulting in strengthening foreign inflows.”

Moderate risk-aversion prevailed across the Asian markets, as a sense of caution ahead of the key Eurozone/ US macro data that could set the tone for

Moderate risk-aversion prevailed across the Asian markets, as a sense of caution ahead of the key Eurozone/ US macro data that could set the tone for the markets in the coming days. Meanwhile, traders refrained from placing any big directional bets heading into the Easter weekend holidays and hence, left most majors wavering in tight ranges while the US dollar consolidates its recovery across the board, holding steady near the 97 mark. Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the USD/JPY pair extended its range play around the 112 handle, little affected by any Japanese headlines or risk-off action in the Asian equities and negative Treasury yields. The Aussie, on the other hand, enjoyed good two-way businesses for the second day in a row and retested the 0.72 handle following the release of mixed Australian jobs and NAB business surveys. The Chinese proxy, the AUD, was unperturbed by the report that PBOC is unlikely to cut the RRR in the near-term. Meanwhile, the Kiwi traded on the defensive above the 0.67 level amid the recent decline in oil prices on surging US output. Therefore, the Loonie also remained on the offers near mid-1.33s. Both the European currencies, the Euro and the pound traded almost unchanged on the day, awaiting fresh directives from the economic releases ahead while the gold price-weakness also capped the upside in the shared currency. Gold prices on Comex traded weaker and looked to test the 1270 level.Main Topics in AsiaKCNA: N.Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversees test of new tactical guided weapon – Reuters Fed’s Logan: Eventual treasury purchases likely to be larger than before financial crisis – RTRS WTI: Pullback towards $63.00 persists amid lack of fresh catalysts Nikkei Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI - Full Report Japan finmin Aso to travel to U.S. on April 25 to meet US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin – RTRS Source Aussie jobs data is in: In-line Unemployment Rate  Australian NAB Quarterly Business Survey, March Quarter 2019 Fitch confirms Australia at AAA, outlook 'Stable' China SAFE spokesman: Confident China will be able to achieve 2019 economic growth target USD/IDR: Indonesian Rupiah rises to 7-week highs, President Widodo gets second term as expected Japan: October sales tax hike may be delayed – Kyodo News Japan PM Abe to meet with US Pres. Trump at White House on April 26thKey Focus AheadA hectic EUR calendar awaits this Thursday, with all eyes focused on the Euro area flash manufacturing and services PMI reports, trickling in from 0715 GMT that will decide the fate of the EUR bulls. Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the entire bloc’s PMI reports will be closely eyed for fresh signs on the Eurozone’s economic health. The manufacturing PMIs from both economies are likely to show a minor improvement this month. Ahead of these reports, the Swiss trade figures will be published at 0600 GMT. At 0830 GMT, the key UK retail sales report will be released, which is likely to show that the UK consumer spending rose by 4.6% y/y last month vs. 4.0% booked in Feb.  The NA docket is also a heavy-showing, with the US retail sales, weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index slated for release at 1230 GMT alongside the releases of the Canadian retail sales and ADP jobs, which will keep the NA traders busy from the onset. Later on, at 1345 GMT, the US manufacturing and services PMIs will be published by Markit, followed by the US business inventories data at 1400 GMT. Meanwhile, the speech by the FOMC member Bostic will wrap up a data-heavy Good Friday week. EUR/USD: Repeated failure to close above 1.13 is cause of concern for bulls, focus on Eurozone PMIs A weaker-than-expected PMIs, therefore, could put EUR/USD on the path to re-test of 1.12. The newfound resistance range of 1.1310-1.1325 will likely be scaled in a convincing manner if the PMI's jump above 50.00, signaling a rebound in the factory activity.  GBP/USD: Buyers await UK retail sales to validate 1.3035/30 support Looking forward, March month retail sales from the UK will become the key driver for the GBP/USD pair as the same contributes the majority into the British GDP. The quote clings to a nine-week-old upward sloping trend-line while waiting for the UK data for fresh triggers. UK retail sales preview: A tie-breaker for UK data, but the bias is bearish for GBP/USD The UK publishes its Retail Sales report for March on Thursday, April 18th, at 8:30 GMT. Back in February, headline sales advanced by 0.4% MoM. Excluding fuel, consumption rose by a more modest 0.2%.  US Retail Sales Preview: Let the spending begin Overall retail sales are predicted to rise 0.9% in March following February's 0.2% decline. Sales excluding automobiles are expected to climb 0.7% after falling 0.4% the prior month.   

USD/CAD is taking the rounds near 1.3350 while heading into the European session on Thursday.

WTI weakness favors the USD/CAD pair’s short-covering moves.Retail sales numbers will be in focus for fresh direction.USD/CAD is taking the rounds near 1.3350 while heading into the European session on Thursday. The Loonie pair dipped yesterday as Canadian trade and inflation numbers pleased sellers but the recent weakness of WTI triggered the quote’s U-turn. Traders may now concentrate on retail sales numbers from the US and Canada for fresh impulse. On Wednesday, the decline in the US trade deficit couldn’t win over the increase in international merchandise trade, consumer price index (YoY) from Canada. However, the weakness failed to last long as markets booked some profits off WTI as EIA released weekly inventory decline that was lesser than the private industry stock change number.
Increase in Iranian exports of crude, as estimated by Reuters, could also be the reason behind WTI’s pullback from the near five-month high. Crude being Canada’s largest export item, the USD/CAD pair has a negative correlation with WTI. Looking forward, March month retail sales control group from the US will confront with February month retail sales data from Canada around 12:30 GMT. Forecasts suggest that the US reading could increase to +0.4% from -0.2% whereas the Canadian number might rise to +0.2% from 0.1%.USD/CAD Technical AnalysisWhile 1.3400 acts as nearby resistance, a descending trend-line from March-high, at 1.3440, could challenge buyers afterward. In a case prices rally beyond 1.3440, 1.3510 and 1.3600 might become their next targets. On the contrary, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure near 1.3315 and 1.3250 may entertain short-term sellers prior to challenging them with an upward sloping support-line at 1.3220 and 200-day SMA level of 1.3200.

ANZ analysts note that the Bank of Korea (BoK) has maintained its policy rate at 1.75% today as the decision to hold was unanimous and widely expected

ANZ analysts note that the Bank of Korea (BoK) has maintained its policy rate at 1.75% today as the decision to hold was unanimous and widely expected.Key Quotes“The BoK also lowered its growth and inflation forecasts for 2019, which came on the back of disappointing activity and inflation data in Q1. Nonetheless, the central bank maintains the view that growth will not deviate significantly from its potential level and the Governor has attributed the low inflation readings to low oil and agricultural prices as well as government policies.” “He also reiterated in his press conference that rate cuts are not being considered. Therefore, we are sticking with our forecast for the BoK to stand pat throughout 2019.”

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against major currencies, is currently flatlined at 97.00, having hit a high of 97.05

The dollar index is searching for clear direction at press time, having staged a repeated bounce from the 50-day moving average (MA) this week. The newfound average support, however, could be breached if the consumer spending, as represented by the US retail sales, prints well below estimates. The data is due for release at 12:30 GMT. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against major currencies, is currently flatlined at 97.00, having hit a high of 97.05 earlier today. The DXY’s 50-day moving average (MA) has emerged as strong support this week. This is evident from the greenback’s defense of that average line in three out of the last four trading sessions.  As of writing, the 50-day MA support is located at 96.81. A break lower could happen later today if the US retail sales, due at 12:30 GMT, shows a big drop in consumer spending in March.  Retail sales, however, are seen rebounding 0.9 percent month-on-month in April, having dropped 0.2 percent in the preceding month. The core retail sales are expected to have risen 0.7 percent in April following a 0.4 percent drop in March.  Meanwhile, the retail sales control group, which is used to calculate the gross domestic product (GDP), is seen rebounding 0.4 percent.  A better-than-expected data could put a strong bid under the greenback, helping the bulls capitalize on the repeated bounce from the 50-day MA.  Apart from the retail sales figure, the American dollar may also take cues from the weekly jobless claims and the preliminary PMI readings for April. Pivot points 

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) declined to 3.3% in March from previous 3.4%

ANZ analysts point out that the Indonesia held its first ever simultaneous presidential and legislative elections yesterday, and unofficial quick coun

ANZ analysts point out that the Indonesia held its first ever simultaneous presidential and legislative elections yesterday, and unofficial quick count results suggest the incumbent president, Joko Widodo (Jokowi) is on track for a second term.Key Quotes“His lead over the challenger, Prabowo Subianto, also appears to have widened relative to their 2014 contest. Local markets – which were closed yesterday – are likely to react positively when they reopen today.” “A Jokowi win, if confirmed, would represent policy continuity though external headwinds such as weak commodity prices suggest growth in the near term is still likely to remain stuck around the 5% mark. The official results will be announced by 22 May.”

Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, suggests that today's Australian March employment report did not feed the doves

Annette Beacher, chief Asia-Pacific macro strategist at TD Securities, suggests that today's Australian March employment report did not feed the doves as the unemployment rate popped back up to 5% as widely anticipated (the 6m average is also 5%, not trending anywhere but sideways).Key Quotes“February's +5k was upgraded to +11k; and employment jumped by +26k (mkt +15k, TD +17k) where full-time surged by +48k. The RBA expects the unemployment rate to be 5% this year, so today's report is consistent with that view.” “The RBA also focuses on underemployment, although in March these measures edged higher. However underemployment and underutilisation rates/ratios have been edging lower (not in a straight line) for the last two years. The underutilisation rate hints at wages growth closer to 2¾% by year end.” “Despite bearing the weight of rate cuts both offshore and domestically, the AUD cannot sustainably trade through $US0.70, while sellers tend to emerge when trading past $US0.72. This tight range is likely to continue until we have clarity on the outcome of the 18 May election (turning out to be more of a close call than thought a few months ago) and what kind of fiscal stimulus we can expect over the coming year or so (tax cuts vs minimum wage hikes).”

The common currency's bounce from the April 2 low of 1.1184 has stalled near 1.13 this week despite the fresh evidence that China's economy may have b

Euro's repeated failure to close above 1.13 may entice sellers.The shared currency could take a hit if the preliminary Eurozone PMIs miss estimates, validating concerns of several ECB policymakers that bank's recent economic projections are too optimistic. The common currency's bounce from the April 2 low of 1.1184 has stalled near 1.13 this week despite the fresh evidence that China's economy may have bottomed out and a sharp drop in periphery government bond yields.  A closer look at EUR/USD's daily chart reveals the 1.1310-1.1325 range has proved a tough nut to crack in three out of the last four trading days. As a result, the pair has persistently failed to find acceptance above the psychological hurdle of 1.13. The immediate bullish case, therefore, has weakened.  The inability to climb 1.13 in a convincing manner could be associated with the rise in the US and German two-year government bond yields. That short duration bond yield, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose to 300 basis points on Tuesday, the highest level since March 19. Notably, the yield spread has risen more than 30 basis points in the USD-positive manner over the last three weeks.  Further, reports hit the wires earlier this week stating that several European Central Bank (ECB) officials are worried that the bank's recent economic projections are too optimistic and the long projected recovery is unlikely to happen in the second half of this year.  These concerns would be bolstered if the preliminary German and Eurozone manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April miss expectations. Germany's manufacturing PMI, due at 07:30 GMT, is expected to print at 45.00 versus 44.1 in April. Meanwhile, the Eurozone PMI for April, due at 10:00 GMT, is expected to have ticked higher to 47.9 from the previous month's 47.5.  A weaker-than-expected PMIs, therefore, could put EUR/USD on the path to re-test of 1.12. The newfound resistance range of 1.1310-1.1325 will likely be scaled in a convincing manner if the PMI's jump above 50.00, signaling a rebound in the factory activity.  Later in the day, the focus would shift to the US retail sales for March and the weekly jobless claims. As of writing, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day at 1.1295. Technical Levels 

The GBP/USD pair clings to a nine-week-old upward sloping trend-line ahead of the UK retail sales release.

Traders await fresh clues from the economic calendar to justify the strength of near-term support-line.Lack of Brexit news limits pair moves with overall anti-no-deal sentiment restricting further downside.The GBP/USD pair is mostly unchanged around 1.3040 ahead of the London open on Thursday. The quote clings to a nine-week-old upward sloping trend-line while waiting for the UK retail sales for fresh triggers. The Cable recently dropped to the lowest in a week after the UK consumer price index (CPI) fell behind 2.0% forecast to remain unchanged at 1.9%. However, lack of Brexit negatives and aforementioned support-line confined the pair’s further declines. Easter recess in the British Parliaments till April 23 restricts the Brexit news flow off-late. During early Thursday, investor sentiment remained mostly downbeat as news of KCNA report that North Korea tested tactical weapon under the leader Kim Jong Un’s guidance renewed geopolitical fears of the US-North Korea tension. With this, the US 10-year treasury yield dropped nearly 2 basis points to 2.57% from 2.59%. Looking forward, March month retail sales from the UK will become the key driver for the GBP/USD pair as the same contributes the majority into the British GDP. The retail sales growth is expected to decline -0.3% from +0.4% on a monthly basis but may rise 4.6% from 4.0% earlier while observing YoY format. The retail sales ex-fuel, also known as core retail sales, may advance by +4.0% versus 3.8% and drop with -0.3% against +0.2% on a yearly and an MoM basis. In addition to the UK retail sales, the US is also up for releasing its March month retail sales data together with Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Mar), weekly jobless claims and Markit PMI (Apr). The US retail sales control group could rise +0.4% from -0.2% earlier contraction whereas its manufacturing gauge may soften to 10.4 from 13.7. Also, initial jobless claims for the week ended on April 12 may increase to 205K from 196K while Markit manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) could strengthen to 52.8 from 52.4 with services PMI likely weakening towards 55.0 from 55.3.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisGiven the upbeat British data triggers the GBP/USD pair’s upside, 1.3070 and 1.3100-1.3108 area comprising 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and a descending trend-line since March 13, seem important to watch. It should also be noted that the break of 1.3105 can fuel prices to 1.3130 and 1.3200 during the further rally. Alternatively, break of more than two-month-old ascending trend-line now near 1.3035/30 can drag the quote to 1.3000 and 200-day SMA level of 1.2970.

AUD/USD is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 0.7178, having hit a high and low of 0.7198 and 0.7165, respectively, earlier today. Esse

AUD/USD creating back-to-back doji candles on the daily chart - a sign of indecision or two-way business. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is unlikely to cut rates in the near-term, according to the China Securities Journal. AUD/USD is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 0.7178, having hit a high and low of 0.7198 and 0.7165, respectively, earlier today.  Essentially, the pair is lacking a clear directional bias for the second day - the spot created a doji-like candle yesterday.  The Aussie dollar had picked up a bid at 02:00 GMT on the back of upbeat Aussie jobs report. The pair, however, failed to hold on to gains above the 200-day moving average (MA) line, currently at 0.7194 and fell back to 0.7164.  The pullback was somewhat surprising, given the 10-year yield jumped four basis points post-jobs data.   That said, the selling pressure again weakened below the ascending 5-day MA, currently at 0.7175. The pair found bids below that average in the previous two trading days.  The bears, however, may gain an upper hand during the day ahead with China’s securities journal ruling out a PBOC rate cut. That would put more pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates to counter the economic slowdown. Technical Levels 

NZD/USD bounces off 0.6710–0.6700 support-confluence comprising an ascending trend-line from October 31 and a horizontal-line including lows from January 08.

NZD/USD daily chartNZD/USD trades near 0.6720 ahead of European open on Thursday. The pair recently bounced off 0.6710 – 0.6700 support-confluence comprising an ascending trend-line stretched since October 31 and a horizontal-line including lows marked since January 08.  Pair’s recent pullback can avail 0.6770 as an intermediate halt during its upside to 0.6800 and then to the 0.6810 joint between 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 100-day SMA. During the quote’s extended rise past-0.6810, 0.6840, 0.6880 and 0.6900 could become bulls’ favorites. On the downside break of 0.6700, sellers may wait for 0.6690 to validate the downturn till 0.6650 and then to January lows near 0.6585.  NZD/USD 4-Hour chartThe pair forms “falling wedge” bullish formation on the four-hour (4H) chart that gets confirmed on the break of 0.6770, opening the door for its upward trajectory towards 0.6870. On the downside break of 0.6700 pattern support, recent lows near 0.6665 can gain bears’ attention.  NZD/USD hourly chartWhile 0.6730 acts as closest resistance-line, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of current month moves near 0.6640 can please bears between 0.6650 and 0.6585.

A US official noted late-Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with the US President Donald Trump at the White House on April 26th,

A US official noted late-Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will meet with the US President Donald Trump at the White House on April 26th, with the discussion likely to be cantered on trade and North Korea’s nuclear programme, Reuters reports.Further Points:Japan’s Foreign and Defence Ministers will meet with their U.S. counterparts in Washington on Friday, the U.S. State Department said. The State Department said: “Friday’s security talks will cover North Korea and the “continued realignment of U.S. armed forces in Japan, among other issues.” Discussions on North Korea are likely to cover next steps after Trump’s failed meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in February.

EUR/JPY is struggling to capitalize on the falling channel breakout, confirmed on April 12 with the 4-hour chart flashing a double top pattern with th

EUR/JPY is struggling to capitalize on the falling channel breakout, confirmed on April 12 with the 4-hour chart flashing a double top pattern with the neckline support at 126.20Daily chartAs seen above, the pair confirmed a falling channel breakout with a 0.83 percent rise in Friday, the biggest single-day rise since Jan. 25.  So far, however, the follow through to that bullish breakout has been anything but bullish. The cross has persistently struggled to clear resistance near 126.80 in the last three days. 4-hour chartOn the 4-hour chart, the relative strength index (RSI) is teasing a drop below 50.00, having created lower highs (bearish divergence) over the last couple of days.  As a result, the pair may complete the double top pattern with a drop to the neckline support, currently at 126.20.  A 4-hour close below the neckline would confirm a double top breakdown and create room for 125.60 (target as per the measured move method).  The bearish setup would be invalidated if and when the spot finds acceptance above 126.80. That would put the focus back on the falling channel breakout seen on the daily chart. Trend: Bearish below 126.20  

The China Securities Journal is out with a front page report this Thursday, stating that PBOC (Chinese central bank) is unlikely to cut the reserve re

The China Securities Journal is out with a front page report this Thursday, stating that PBOC (Chinese central bank) is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) in the short term.Further Headlines:Better-than expected Q1 economic data places the PBOC under less pressure to cut RRR. PBOC expected to continue reserve repo injections with greater intensity in the near future.

USD/JPY is struggling to find acceptance above 112.00 for the sixth consecutive day with the 4-hour chart relative strength index creating lower highs

USD/JPY is struggling to find acceptance above 112.00 for the sixth consecutive day with the 4-hour chart relative strength index creating lower highs (bearish divergence).  As of writing, the spot is currently trading at 111.93, having hit a year-to-date high of 112.17 yesterday.  The news crossed the wires a few minutes before press time that Japan may delay the sales tax hike, due in October. So far, however, that has failed to move the needle on USD/JPY. 4-hour chartThe repeated failure to find acceptance above 112.00 validates the case for pullback put forward by the RSI's bearish divergence.  As a result, the spot could drift lower to the 50-candle moving average, currently flatlined at 111.63. The bearish case would weaken if the spot finds acceptance above 112.00.Trend: Minor pullback likely  

The Japanese news agency, Kyodo News, carries a report on Thursday, suggesting that an October sales tax hike may be delayed. Nothing further is repor

The Japanese news agency, Kyodo News, carries a report on Thursday, suggesting that an October sales tax hike may be delayed. Nothing further is reported on the same. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair remains little changed on the headlines, hovering near the 112 handle.

According to the latest Reuters poll, a majority of the economists expect the Bank of Canada (BOC) to steer the monetary policy on a steady course for

According to the latest Reuters poll, a majority of the economists expect the Bank of Canada (BOC) to steer the monetary policy on a steady course for the balance of this year while calling on for a rate not until at least early 2020.Key Findings:“The April 12-16 poll of over 40 economists brings expectations for the BoC in line with those for the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks, which are now forecast to stay on the sidelines this year. All economists polled said the BoC will hold rates at 1.75 percent at its April 24 meeting and about 60 percent of them say they will stay there through to the end of this year. The median forecast shows the central bank will hike in the first quarter of next year to 2.0 percent, but the sample was split. The rates are forecast to stay put after that through to end-2020. Almost 90 percent of economists who answered an additional question said a rate cut was unlikely by end-2020 as they remain hopeful the economy will muddle through its current rough patch. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth was forecast to average 1.6 percent this year and 1.7 percent next, a downgrade from 1.8 percent predicted for both those years in the January poll. The median probability of a recession in the next 12 months was 20 percent, and 27.5 percent in the next two years. That compares with a 25 percent probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months and 40 percent chance in the next two years.”

USD/IDR is currently trading at 14,014, representing a 0.39 percent drop on the day, having printed a low of 14,000 earlier today, its lowest level si

USD/IDR has hit the lowest since Feb. 28 in Asia. Exit polls show the incumbent Indonesian President Joko Widodo is on course for the second term. A bearish lower highs pattern favors further slide in the USD/IDR pair.USD/IDR is currently trading at 14,014, representing a 0.39 percent drop on the day, having printed a low of 14,000 earlier today, its lowest level since February 28.  The Indonesian Rupiah is likely cheering the exit polls, which show the incumbent Joko Widodo in on course for the second term. "Quick counts" conducted by a variety of credible polling agencies put Jokowi on around 55% of the vote, with Prabowo winning around 44%, according to CNN.  Widodo is widely seen as a progressive leader, given the Indonesian economy logged a solid 5 percent growth rate during his first term in office.  More importantly, his rival, the former army general Prabowo Subianto, lacks experience in governing. His loss, therefore, has eliminated uncertainty, pushing the IDR higher.  Looking forward, the USD/IDR may drop to key support at 13970 (Feb. 26 low). A close lower would bolster the already bearish technical setup and allow a stronger sell-off to 13,895 (February low). The outlook would turn bullish again if and when the spot violated the bearish lower highs pattern with a move above 14,152.   

A spokesman for China’s FX regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is out on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the econ

A spokesman for China’s FX regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is out on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the economic growth outlook.Key Headlines:China's cross-border capital flows generally stable in Q1. Will strengthen counter-cyclical policies to support economy. Confident China will be able to achieve 2019 economic growth target.

In an overnight client note, the Danske Bank analysts offered their view on the EUR/USD pair on the Euro area flash manufacturing and services PMI rel

In an overnight client note, the Danske Bank analysts offered their view on the EUR/USD pair on the Euro area flash manufacturing and services PMI releases.Key Quotes:“For EUR/USD, the big test is April's flash PMIs. We look for another disappointment tomorrow, which could send EUR/USD down some 50-70 pips on the day.”  

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a sustained labor market strength in March, lifting the 10-year treasury yield higher by 4 basis po

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a sustained labor market strength in March, lifting the 10-year treasury yield higher by 4 basis points.  As of writing, the benchmark yield is trading at 1.98 percent, having hit a session high of 1.987 percent.  Australia’s economy added 25,700 jobs in March - far more than the expected print of 12,000. More importantly, the full-time employment surged to 48,300, having dropped by 7,300 in February, the ABS data released at 02:00 GMT showed.  Even so, the jobless rate ticked higher to 5 percent as expected with the participation rate rising to 65.7 percent from 65.6 percent. The part-time jobs dropped by 22,600 following an 11,900 increase in February.  The upbeat jobs report could alleviate pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates in the second half of this year.  A significant majority of analysts reportedly expects the RBA to sit on the current 1.5% rate until there is clearer evidence that the job market is suffering.

The US-based Fitch ratings is out with its credit review report on the Australian economy, confirming the sovereign rating at AAA with a Stable outloo

The US-based Fitch ratings is out with its credit review report on the Australian economy, confirming the sovereign rating at AAA with a Stable outlook.Key Highlights:“Momentum in the Australian economy has decelerated in the near term, but still compares well with AAA peers. The slowdown of the Australian economy is due in part to spillovers from the weakening housing market on dwelling investment and household consumption. It expects ongoing housing market correction in Australia to remain orderly. Forecasts Australia's debt-to-GDP to begin a downward trajectory in light of the improvement in fiscal performance. Australia's banking system is well positioned to manage a housing market shock. Australia's monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative to support economic growth and employment.”

AUD/NZD broke immediate trend-line resistance after Australia’s employment data.

AUD/NZD is on the bids near 1.0680 during early Thursday. The pair broke a day-old trend-line resistance after Australia’s employment data broadly portrayed upbeat scenario. With the sustained break of 1.0660 level, the quote can aim for recent highs around 1.0730 during further upside with 1.0700 acting as a validation point. Should there be an additional increase be the pair beyond 1.0730, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of its April 10 to recent lows, near 1.0760, can flash on the Bulls’ radar. Meanwhile, a downside break of 1.0660 can recall 1.0645 support whereas a horizontal line connecting April 12 and 15 highs, at 1.0620, could tame the selling pressure afterward. Given the bear’s dominance past-1.0620, an ascending support-line from April 05 at 1.0585 and horizontal support joining lows since April at 1.0570 might become their favorite spots.AUD/NZD hourly chartTrend: Bullish  

The business conditions index decreased 5pts to +4 in 2019 Q1 continuing the downtrend since early 2018 and is now just above average. Business confid

The business conditions index decreased 5pts to +4 in 2019 Q1 continuing the downtrend since early 2018 and is now just above average. Business confidence also fell, declining 2pts to -1 index points suggesting the outlook for conditions is less positive. According to Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist “Business conditions continued to ease in Q1 suggesting the loss in momentum through 2018 has continued into 2019. Conditions are now only just above average and negative confidence and forward orders suggest the outlook remains weak”.Full report

The Aussie dollar is pushing higher against the greenback as the Australia Bureau of Statistics data released a few minutes before press time showed t

AUD/USD has hit session highs above the 200-day MA at 0.7194 in response to big beat on the Aussie jobs figure. Australia’s jobless rate ticked higher to 5 percent in March.The currency pair needs to clear the 200-day MA hurdle for stronger gains. The Aussie dollar is pushing higher against the greenback as the Australia Bureau of Statistics data released a few minutes before press time showed the labor market conditions remained strong in March.      Australia’s economy added 25,700 jobs in March, beating the expected print of 12,000 by a big margin. The economy had added 5,000 jobs in February. Despite the job gains, the jobless rate ticked higher to 5 percent from 4.9 percent as expected.  Notably, the full-time jobs surged by 48,300 in March, having dropped by 7,300 in February.   The fresh evidence of sustained labor market strength is boding well for the Aussie dollar. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7188, having hit a high of 0.7197 immediately post-jobs data release at 02:00 GMT.  Technically speaking, the currency pair needs to find acceptance above the 200-day moving average (MA), currently at 0.7194. That could invite stronger buying pressure, leading to re-test of year-to-date highs near 0.72. The move above the key average could happen today, as upbeat jobs report will likely weaken RBA easing bets. Technical Levels
 

Australia Part-Time Employment: -22.6K (March) vs previous 11.9K

AUD/JPY surged 40 pips to 80.60 just after Australia’s employment report release during early Thursday.

Strong growth in employment change and increased participation rate helps dim RBA’s bearish bias.The pair needs to clear 80.70 in order to aim for 81.50 else 80.00 can come back on the chart.AUD/JPY surged 40 pips to 80.60 just after Australia’s employment report release during early Thursday. The pair benefited from upbeat China data on Wednesday but 80.65/70 area continued to restrict its advances. Australia’s seasonally adjusted employment change surged to 25.7K from 4.6K prior and 12.0K forecast whereas unemployment rate matched 5.0% consensus by being ahead of 4.9% prior. Further, the participation rate increased to 65.7% from 65.6% consensus and prior. On the other hand, Japan’s April month preliminary reading of Nikkei manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) rose to 49.5 from 49.2. News reports concerning North Korea’s tactical weapon test and global rating agency Fitch affirming Australia’s credit status at AAA with some cautious notes likely triggered the AUD/JPY pair’s pullback during early Thursday. Risk sentiment is likely being challenged off-late as the US 10-year treasury yields are nearly one basis point down to 2.58%. Absence of major data from Australia and Japan pushes investors to concentrate more on risk events like developments surrounding the US-China trade deal, Brexit and other geopolitical catalysts for fresh direction.AUD/JPY Technical AnalysisUnless successfully clearing 80.65/70 area including December 10 and 18 lows, the quote is likely to rise towards 81.50 and December 13 high near 82.20. Alternatively, 80.00 and 79.70/60 region comprising multiple highs marked since February to early April can limit the immediate downside of the pair, a break of which highlights 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 79.00 as important support.

The Aussie jobs data has arrived and it has helped the Aussie higher on inline Unemployment Rate and no changes. Fulltime Employment (Mar) -7.3k vs pr

The Aussie jobs data has arrived and it has helped the Aussie higher on inline Unemployment Rate and no changes. Fulltime Employment (Mar)  48.3K   vs  prior - 7.3k Employment Change s.a. (Mar) 15k  vs exp 12.0k and prior 4.6 k (10.7k rev) Part-Time Employment (Mar)  22.6k   vs prior 11.95Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar) 5.0% vs exp 5.0% and prior 4.9% (Uptrend in the unemployment rate would open the door to a rate cut). Participation Rate (Mar) vs exp 65.6%  and prior 65.6% More to come on revisions...For reference (Bank Analysis and opinion prior to the data):  Analysts at Westpac explained that the RBA has made clear that an uptrend in the unemployment rate would open the door to a rate cut. After the modest 5k rise in Feb, consensus for Mar is 15k. Westpac looks for 8k. This would keep the annual pace of jobs growth at a firm 2.3%. But if the participation rate remains at 65.6%, this would see the unemployment rate rise to 5.1% from 4.9% in Feb (a low since Mar 2011). Consensus is 5.0%.About the Employment ChangeThe Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. meets forecasts (5%) in March

Australia Employment Change s.a. above expectations (12K) in March: Actual (25.7K)

Australia Fulltime Employment up to 48.3K in March from previous -7.3K

Australia Participation Rate came in at 65.7%, above expectations (65.6%) in March

Japan Finance Minister Aso will travel to U.S. on April 25 to meet US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

Japan Finance Minister Aso will travel to U.S. on April 25 to meet US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. 

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.6911 vs the previous day’s fix of 6.7110.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.6911 vs the previous day’s fix of 6.7110.

Gold's dropped beneath 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its August 2018 to February 2019 upside indicates its weakness.

Gold trades near $1274 during early Thursday. The yellow metal dropped beneath 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its August 2018 to February 2019 upside for the first time since in 2019 on yesterday. As a result, chances of its further weakness towards an upward sloping trend-line since August 2018, at $1262, can’t be denied. Though, $1270 and $1266/65 can act as intermediate halts during the decline. In a case where the quote slips under $1262 support-line, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $1250 could become sellers’ favorite. On the upside break of $1276 figure comprising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, $1281 and 100-day SMA level of $1289 could please buyers. Should there be increased buying past-$1289, $1296, $1301 and 50-day SMA level of $1304 can please buyers ahead of challenging $1309 trend-line resistance stretched since February.Gold daily chartTrend: Bearish  

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7170, having failed to close above the 200-day moving average (MA) yesterday, despite the upbeat China March industr

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7170, having failed to close above the 200-day moving average (MA) yesterday, despite the upbeat China March industrial production, retail sales data and the first quarter GDP. The moving average is widely considered a barometer of the long-term trend. Further, it has proved a tough nut to crack in the recent past. For instance, the pair created a lower high at the 200-day MA on Jan. 31 and faced rejection at the key hurdle on April 12.  The 200-day MA, therefore, is the level to beat for the bulls. A sustained move higher may invite stronger buying pressure, opening the doors for fresh year-to-date highs above 0.7295.  The break above the 200-day MA, currently at 0.7192, will likely remain elusive if the Aussie jobs data due at 02:00 GMT, disappoints expectations, boosting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut bets.  The data is expected to show the economy added 12,000 jobs in March and the jobless rate ticked higher to 5 percent from 4.9 percent. Daily chartTrend: Bullish above 200-day MA  

Stronger employment growth lifts PMI, but export demand continues to falter... Key points: Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI® at 49.5, third straight mont

Stronger employment growth lifts PMI, but export demand continues to falter...Key points:Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI® at 49.5, third straight month below the 50.0 no-change mark; Weaker demand from domestic and international markets persists, leading output to fall further… …but manufacturing employment remains resilient.Full report

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (1.75%) in April

Having failed to rise beyond $64.60, WTI witnesses pullback to $63.60 during early Asian sessions on Thursday.

Lack of big boost from inventory drawdown and failure to surpass $64.80 portrays the recent pullback.Break of $63.00 immediate support can trigger fresh selling of the energy benchmark.Having failed to rise beyond $64.60, WTI witnesses pullback to $63.60 during early Asian sessions on Thursday. Repeated failures to rise beyond $64.80 and mixed inventory data seems to pull the energy benchmark towards $63.00 immediate support. Prices rallied early on Wednesday when China’s headline data for GDP, retail sales and industrial production all flashed strong numbers. However, the gains couldn’t be held for long as traders considered a dip in EIA inventories smaller than the API mark. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released the US crude oil stock report for the week ended on April 12. The report showed -1.396 million barrels of drawdown compared to +7.329 million forecasts and 7.029 million prior. Though, the figures were lesser than the private industry data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that dropped to -3.096 million barrels compared to +4.091 earlier. Reuters report that Iran’s crude exports have dropped in April to their lowest daily level this year as per tanker data and industry sources might also have weighed on WTI prices. Looking forward, investors may observe global economic calendar concerning the US, the UK and the EU, coupled with developments surrounding the US-China trade deal, in order to determine immediate market moves.WTI Technical AnalysisAn area comprising April 03high and April 16 lows signifies the importance of $63.00 as immediate support, a break of which can recall $61.90 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of $61.10 on the chart. Alternatively, a successful break of $64.80, near to present month high and August 2018 lows, can propel the quote towards $65.00 and October 23 low around $65.70.

The yuan found takers after the official data released in the Asian session showed the world's second-largest economy’s growth rate steadied at 6.4 pe

The bid tone around the offshore Chinese yuan strengthened yesterday, pushing the USD/CNH lower by 0.53 percent, the biggest single-day drop since Jan. 30. The yuan found takers after the official data released in the Asian session showed the world's second-largest economy’s growth rate steadied at 6.4 percent in the first three months of this year, contradicting an expected slowdown to 6.3 percent. Meanwhile, March industrial production growth printed well above 8 percent, beating the estimated rebound to 5.9 percent by a big margin. As of writing, the USD/CNH pair is trading at 6.6816, representing marginal gains on the day. The gains could be extended further, but will likely be short-lived, as yesterday’s drop may have emboldened the bears.Daily chartAs seen above, the pair fell 0.53 percent yesterday, validating the repeated rejection at the 50-day moving average (MA) seen over the last three weeks. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dived out of the ascending trendline and is currently biased bearish at 38.00. Further, the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending south, indicating a bearish setup. As a result, the support at 6.6660 (trendline connecting Feb. 25 and March 21 lows) could soon come into play. A daily close below that would bolster the bearish setup, opening doors for a deeper drop. The bearish case would weaken if the spot finds acceptance above the 10-day MA, currently at 6.7073, although that looks unlikelyTrend: Bearish  

USD/JPY was flat overnight around 112.00 as markets consolidated following a brief burst of excitement pitched by tChinesense data dump where GDP beat

USD/JPY is currently trading at 112.00, within a range of between 111.97 and 112.06.Risk sentiment has eased off a touch despite upbeat Chinese data and steady as she goes U.S. outlook. USD/JPY was flat overnight around 112.00 as markets consolidated following a brief burst of excitement pitched by tChinesense data dump where GDP beat expectations, but only just and stayed in line with prior.  U.S. stocks were undermined by a poor health care performance which capped the pair in its northerly trajectory: The Nasdaq Composite lost 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to end near 7,997. The S&P 500 closed with a loss of around 7 points, or 0.2%, near 2,900. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), was off by a marginal 3 points ending around 26,450.U.S. data As for Us data, analysts at Westpac explained: The Fed’s Beige Book of regional economic conditions was little changed, again characterizing growth as “slight to moderate”. Fed speakers included Bullard, who expected the yield curve to continue to steepen as the economy improves this year and Harker, who also expected sustained growth and sees at most one hike in 2019 and one in 2020. The chances of a Fed rate cut by December, implied by Fed fund futures, remained at 50%. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10yr treasury yield climbed from 2.58% to 2.61% for another high this month while the 2yr yield ranged between  2.39% and 2.43%, tailing off towards the close.USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, The Chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, the pair maintains a neutral-to-bullish stance short term: "In the 4 hours chart, the pair held around its 20 SMA, although the lack of follow-through has turned the moving average flat, anyway still well above the larger ones. In the mentioned timeframe, the Momentum indicator remains directionless around its 100 level while the RSI hovers around 60. The risk will remain skewed to the upside as long as the price holds above the 111.80 level, the immediate support."

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI up to 49.5 in April from previous 49.2

Early Thursday markets will see Australian employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 01:30 GMT.

Overview of the Australian jobs reportEarly Thursday markets will see Australian employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 11:30 Sydney/9:30 Singapore/HK and 01:30 GMT. Having witnessed mixed jobs report in February, followed by the absence of strong optimism towards the employment data in RBA minutes, March month employment change and unemployment rate become crucial for AUD/USD traders. Market consensus favors an increase to 12.0K from 4.6K of seasonally adjusted employment change whereas the unemployment rate is likely ticking up to 5.0% versus 4.9% prior. TD Securities expect employment report to follow RBA’s forecast as they said: "After our “flat” February print materialized (+5k) we look for a 'trend' employment increase of +17k in March. Combined job ads point to ongoing 2¼%/y employment growth. When +17k/m is combined with a likely unchanged participation rate of 65.6%, the unemployment rate could pop back to 5.0%, in line with the RBA projection of 5% over 2019 (mkt 5%)." Westpac, on the other hand, highlighted the importance of data by being slightly cautious: "There will be intense interest in Australia’s labour force data (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK) as the RBA has made clear that an uptrend in the unemployment rate would open the door to a rate cut. After the modest 5k rise in Feb, consensus for Mar is 15k. Westpac looks for 8k. This would keep the annual pace of jobs growth at a firm 2.3%. But if the participation rate remains at 65.6%, this would see the unemployment rate rise to 5.1% from 4.9% in Feb (a low since Mar 2011). Consensus is 5.0%."How could the data affect AUD/USD?Even if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to highlight jobs report as an important catalyst driving monetary policy towards normalization, recent mixed numbers have created the troubles to the Aussie central bank. In light of the latest upbeat China data and brighter prospects of a trade deal between the US and China, positive employment report could help the AUD/USD to extend its north-ward trajectory. Technically, 0.7195 – 0.7200 area comprising 200-day simple moving average (SMA) holds the gate for the pair’s rise towards short-term descending trend-line near 0.7230 whereas 100-day SMA level of 0.7140 and 50-day SMA level of 0.7110 may entertain sellers during the quote’s pullback.Key NotesAUD/USD: Mildly bid around 0.7170 ahead of Australia employment data AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie erasing Chinese GDP-inspired gains AUD/USD Analysis: bulls keep trying, but fear prevailsAbout the Employment ChangeThe Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Borrowing costs in Britain will probably increase in the first three months of 2020, later than previously thought, according to a latest Reuters poll

Borrowing costs in Britain will probably increase in the first three months of 2020, later than previously thought, according to a latest Reuters poll. The central bank is now seen raising rates to 1 percent in the first quarter of 2020, as opposed to the previous poll, which had called a rate hike in the fourth quarter of this year. The BOE's interest rate is currently at 0.75 percent.Key pointsEU-UK free trade agreement is the most likely eventual outcome of Brexi. Chances of disorderly UK exit from the European Union is 15 percent, same as the previous poll conducted in March.

The upbeat tones from China faded out over time, despite the upside surprises across all data which gave a temporary lift to the Aussie and some much-

Forex today was mixed while risk sentiment flipped from one session to the next as Wall Street sulked lead by poor performances in the Health sector. The upbeat tones from China faded out over time, despite the upside surprises across all data which gave a temporary lift to the Aussie and some much-needed support tot he kiwi following its CPI miss that sent the bird off a cliff. U.S. data/ yieldsWe had some Fed speakers that included Bullard, again, repeating that the yield curve will continue to steepen as the economy continues to grow. Then, Harker argued for sustained growth and advocated an additional hike for 2019 and then another in 2020 - The chances of a Fed rate cut by December, implied by Fed fund futures, remained at 50%. Traders were awaiting the Fed’s Beige Book as the next gauge of the U.S. regional economic conditions. However, there were little changes from the slightly moderate growth pitch in the text. As for U.S. yields, the U.S. 10yr treasury yield climbed from 2.58% to 2.61% for another high this month while the 2yr yield ranged between  2.39% and 2.43%, tailing off towards the close.Currency action (Analysts at Westpac summed up key moves from the G10 space)EUR/USD probed above 1.1320 then eased back to 1.1300, a touch higher over the day. GBP/USD was quiet in the mid-1.3000s. USD/JPY is flat on the day near 112.00. AUD/USD was unable to extend its bounce on the stronger China data, slipping back to 0.7175, unchanged on the day. NZD/USD preserved some of yesterday’s CPI-led losses, ranging overnight between 0.6705 and 0.6745. AUD/NZD was stable overnight around 1.0680, following yesterday’s NZ CPI-led jump to 1.0732 – the highest since November.Key notes from US session:Wall Street stocks wobble but DJIA technical picture stays bullish above pivot/bullish MAsKey events ahead:"In Australia today the employment data will dominate. We, like the market are predicting the unemployment rate will rise marginally to 5.0%, but we expect a slightly lower than consensus +10k for employment," analysts at ANZ bank explained.   

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥1463.7B to ¥528.5B in April 12

Japan Foreign Bond Investment increased to ¥591.1B in April 12 from previous ¥-1753.4B

Fewer moves of the GBP/JPY pair were witnessed during early Thursday as it traders await data from Japan and the UK for fresh impulse.

Markets await data from Japan and the UK to register more moves.146.30 acts as immediate resistance versus 50-day SMA likely being nearby support.Fewer moves of the GBP/JPY pair were witnessed during early Thursday as it trades near 146.00. The quote remained sideways off-late as Japan’s Nikkei manufacturing PMI and the UK retail sales releases are awaited. Even if China-data backed risk-on sentiment negatively affected the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Wednesday, sluggish prints of the British inflation numbers and no fresh developments surrounding the Brexit confined the pair’s moves. 10-year treasury yield of the US government bond, the risk barometer for global markets, remained unchanged near 2.59% during early-day. The preliminary reading of April month Nikkei manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) from Japan was last came in at 49.2. On the flipside, March month retail sales from the UK could decline to -0.3% from +0.4% on a monthly basis but might improve to +4.6% from +4.0% on YoY format.GBP/JPY Technical AnalysisA horizontal-line connecting April 15 lows near 146.30 is likely nearby resistance for the pair, a break of which can trigger its up-moves to 146.75, 147.00 and recent highs around 147.20. Meanwhile, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 145.55 and 144.70 figure comprising 200-day SMA can continue to challenge sellers before pleasing them with 100-day SMA level of 143.60.

The British Pound (GBP) is taking the rounds near 1.3040 versus the US Dollar (USD) on early Thursday ahead of the UK retail sales release.

Easter recess in the UK parliament limits the GBP moves, traders await March month retail sales data.More than two-month-old ascending trend-line acts as immediate support near 1.3035/30 contrast to 1.3100/05 being strong upside resistance.The British Pound (GBP) is taking the rounds near 1.3040 versus the US Dollar (USD) on early Thursday. The GBP/USD pair has been sideways off-late due to Easter recess at the UK parliament limiting the Brexit headlines. Traders may look forward to March month retail sales figure for fresh impulse. Wednesday’s softer than expected 2.0% figure of the UK consumer price index (CPI) (YoY) to 1.9% couldn’t recall bears as an upward sloping trend-line since February 14 continues to play its role. On the Brexit front, British and the European lawmakers keep spreading words to avoid no-deal Brexit. Recently, the secretary-general of the European Commission was spotted by the Franco-German broadcaster ARTE saying that No deal means hard Irish border which the regional strongly wants to avoid. Not only the UK but the US is also up for releasing its March month retail sales today. The British figure may register a -0.3% contraction (MoM) versus +0.4% earlier while increasing to 4.6% against +4.0% yearly prior. The US retail sales control group may increase to +0.4% from -0.2% earlier.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisA nine-week-old ascending trend-line at 1.3035-30 continues to act as adjacent strong support for the quote. Should prices slip under 1.3030, 1.3000 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2970 can please sellers. On the upside, 1.3070 and 50-day SMA and a downward sloping trend-line joining highs since March 13 around 1.3100 – 1.3105 seems tough resistance. If buyers conquer 1.3105, they may take a halt near 1.3130 ahead of targeting 1.3200 number to the north.

Fed’s Logan speech titled "Observations on Implementing Monetary Policy in an Ample-Reserves Regime" can be read here in full: Full Speech Thank you f

Fed’s Logan speech titled "Observations on Implementing Monetary Policy in an Ample-Reserves Regime"  can be read here in full:   Full SpeechThank you for the kind introduction. While preparing these remarks, I learned that the Money Marketeers organization was founded by Dr. Marcus Nadler, a gifted educator who challenged market participants to deepen their understanding of the forces that move markets, and that it was born out of a popular lecture series he regularly held at NYU. This spirit of continual learning is a core value at the Federal Reserve, and that has been particularly important in recent years as the Fed has been operating in a new monetary policy implementation regime.  NY Fed will study money markets to see how they operate with lower level of bank reserves in the system.Ample reserves' policy to keep rates stable if fed needs to supply liquidity, buy assets to support economy.Bank borrowing rates above interest on excess reserves does not mean reserves are not well supplied.U.S. bank reserves are ample, above system's demands.Fed will eventually need to buy treasuries to offset decline in reserves NY fed might have to respond to unanticipated changes in reserves by conducting repo operations. 

On the weekly outlook, we can see that price is testing that said Jan resistance and the next target will be at the August 2015, May 2017 lows and la

The weekly outlook is bullish, with stochastics turning higher and the price extending the upside on the 23.6% Fibo.A break of the Jan 2018 lows opens prospects for the 84 handle and 38.2% Fibo target. On the weekly outlook, we can see that price is testing that said Jan resistance and the next target will be at the August 2015, May 2017 lows and late August highs located around 81.90.On the daily chart and more so sen on the 4hr time frame, we are seeing some bearish divergence in the stochastics accompanied by the daily doji, so, for the meantime at least, some bearish consolidation should be expected. 4-HR Chart and clear divergence:While some of the divergence has already filtered through to the recent correction in the price, a break of the rising wedge's support-line opens risk to 79.80/60 and 79 the figure:       

A week-long horizontal-line and a downward sloping trend-line joining recent highs together indicate 80.45/50 as a near-term strong resistance for AUD/JPY.

AUD/JPY is trading near 80.40 during early Thursday. A week-long horizontal-line and a downward sloping trend-line joining recent highs together indicate 80.45/50 as a near-term strong resistance for the quote. During the pair’s decline, an ascending support-line stretched since April 10, at 80.10, could limit immediate downturn while a break of which may need extended dip beneath 80.00 to validate the selling pressure towards 79.85 and 79.60. Should there be additional south-run past-79.60, 79.40, 79.20 and 79.00 could entertain bears. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 80.50 can recall 80.60 and 80.70 on the chart with 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) at 80.85 acting as follow-on resistance. In a case where prices rally beyond 80.85, 81.50 and mid-December 2018 top near 82.20 can please the Bulls.AUD/JPY 30-Minutes chartTrend: Pullback expected  

The AUD/USD pair is on the rounds near 0.7170 during the early Asian session on Thursday as Aussie traders await employment data.

Dovish RBA minutes increases the importance of Aussie jobs data after China please global traders.0.7195/0.7200 seem crucial upside resistance to tackle ahead of aiming 0.7230.The AUD/USD pair is on the rounds near 0.7170 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Aussie pair is mildly bid after its positive run on Wednesday as traders await the key jobs report for March. Yesterday, the quote ticked beyond 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in over 13-months as headline economic data from Australia’s largest customer China flashed upbeat numbers.  However, follow-on releases of the US trade balance and comments from Fed members like Patrick Harker and James Bullard dragged the pair again beneath the important SMA but couldn’t avoid positive close. Market risk sentiment failed to remain strong for long as the Wednesday-end figure for the US 10-year treasury yield signals 2.59% mark with no change to its previous daily closing. Moving on, Aussie employment data is likely to show seasonally adjusted employment change grew 12.0K from 4.6K prior but likely increase in the unemployment rate to 5.0% versus 4.9% prior could disappoint buyers. The participation rate is also likely to remain unchanged at 65.6%. Elsewhere, the US retail sales control group figure for March could also limit Aussie gains if matching +0.4% growth forecast compared to -0.2% earlier.
In case of the US-China trade deal, recent news reports favor a likely final announcement sometime near late-May or early June.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisIn addition to 200-day SMA level of 0.7195, 0.7200 round-figure also acts as an immediate upside barrier for the pair to clear in order to aim for an upward sloping trend-line stretched since March 01, at 0.7230. Meanwhile, failure to hold the latest strength can recall 100-day SMA level of 0.7140, followed by 0.7110 comprising 50-day SMA, ahead of testing an ascending support-line since early-March, near 0.7080.

NZD/USD trades little changed near 0.6720 at the start of Asian trading on Thursday.

In spite of recovery based on China data, sellers keep highlighting rate-cut fears due to CPI miss.US data and trade-positive news reports will be awaited for fresh impulse.NZD/USD trades little changed near 0.6720 at the start of Asian trading on Thursday. The Kiwi pair registered heavy losses yesterday despite rest of the commodity-linked currencies’ benefits due to China data. With fewer catalysts from New Zealand on hand, traders may concentrate more on headlines concerning the US-China trade deal and the US retail sales, Markit PMI in order to determine near-term moves. Despite witnessing the upbeat response to China’s strong industrial production and GDP growth, not to forget better than projected retail sales, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remained on a back-foot on Wednesday as quarterly New Zealand CPI slipped beneath forecast and favored RBNZ’s rate-cut in May. The New Zealand central bank turned bear in its March meeting and latest appearance of governor Adrian Orr also reiterated the bearish bias. Market players have been anticipated a quarter point rate-cut from the Kiwi central bank in May after it signaled appropriateness of the rate cut last month. Moving on, developments surrounding the trade deal between the US and China will be closely observed as China is the world’s largest commodity user and a positive from it can help antipodeans as well. Comments from the US lawmakers, including President Donald Trump, have been positive for the trade deal and signal a result somewhere in the next two months. At the economic front, March month retail sales, weekly initial jobless claims and April month Markit purchasing manager index (PMI) data from the US could gain market attention. The retail Sales control group may register +0.4% rise against -0.2% earlier contraction whereas weekly initial jobless for the period ended on April 12 might have increased to 205K from 196K. The US Markit manufacturing PMI may increase to 52.8 from 52.4 but the services PMI could soften to 55.0 from 55.3.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisUnless clearing 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6730, NZD/USD can’t aim for 0.6780, needed to mention its capacity to conquer 50-day and 100-day SMA confluence near 0.6805-10. On the downside, 0.6710, 0.6690 and 0.6650 are likely following numbers to watch during the pair’s additional south-run.

Early Thursday, Reuters cited KCNA saying that the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the testing of a new type of tactical guided weapon on Wednesday.

Early Thursday, Reuters came out with a report citing North Korean media, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), saying that the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the testing of a new type of tactical guided weapon on Wednesday. The news report didn’t flash much light on the type of weapon but assumed to be a short range weapon based on the word “tactical”. It further said that the KCNA mentions the missile having "peculiar mode of guiding flight" and "a powerful warhead."  It should also be noted that this becomes the first public test of a weapon from North Korea after the Trump-Kim meet in Hanoi failed during February.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to end near 7,997. The S&P 500 closed with a loss of around 7 points, or 0.2%, near 2,900. The

The Nasdaq Composite lost 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to end near 7,997.The S&P 500 closed with a loss of around 7 points, or 0.2%, near 2,900.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), was off by a marginal 3 points ending around 26,450.Stocks on Wall Street wobbled and lacked volume, ending slightly lower as the health care sector continues to weigh despite an upbeat backdrop from the Chinese data dump. The S&P 500 closed with a loss of around 7 points, or 0.2%, near 2,900 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), was off by a marginal 3 points ending around 26,450. The Nasdaq Composite lost 4 points, or less than 0.1%, to end near 7,997. Health care is showing cracks in part due to the political climate and calls for lower drug prices and a "Medicare for All"-type health insurance overhaul.U.S. data, (Analysts at NAZ Bank explained the key data events from the U.S. session): The US trade deficit fell to an eight-month low in February as imports from China plunged 20%, reined in by additional tariffs. Meanwhile, US exports to China jumped 18% helped to rebalance the trade deficit. Beige book delivers bland result:  US economic activity grew at a slight to moderate pace in March and April. Wages grew moderately and consumer spending was mixed but sluggish sales reported for retailer and car dealers.DJIA levelsThe technical picture stays bullish on the daily charts while the price holds above the daily pivot and the daily 20 and 50 EMA. Bulls have been in pursuit of the October highs, although there is a lack of momentum and volume coming through; Thus, the longer that price stays stagnant below R2 located at 26750, with stochastics in overbought territory,  a bearish switch up could come in to play and soon. A subsequent correction will target the 20-D EMA and 26000 ahead of the 25700s. The 200-DMA is critical at that juncture which meets the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the late Dec rally guarding a break all the way down to 24800 gap area and S2 ahead of the 24500s and then 50% of the upside run made at the end of Dec at 24150.

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). EUR/USD has been capped by the 1.1330 resistance

EUR/USD daily chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).EUR/USD has been capped by the 1.1330 resistance and the 50 SMA in the last days of trading.EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD formed a double top below 1.1330 resistance.EUR/USD is trading above its main SMAs suggesting a bullish bias in the medium-term.
EUR/USD 30-minute chart
The market is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near-term. EUR/USD might have a retest of 1.1330 resistance however bulls will need to break above it if they don't want a retracement back into the current range. Bears will need to break below 1.1280 to travel to 1.1250 and 1.1220 if they gather enough momentum. Key resistance is at 1.1330. A break above the level would open the doors to 1.1360 level.
Additional key levels 

विदेशी मुद्रा समाचार समयरेखा

Scroll Top