जोखिम की चेतावनी: ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरा है। आपकी पूंजी जोखिम में है। Exinity Limited FSC (मॉरीशस) द्वारा विनियमित है।
जोखिम की चेतावनी: ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरा है। आपकी पूंजी जोखिम में है। Exinity Limited FSC (मॉरीशस) द्वारा विनियमित है।
सोमवार , जून 24, 2019

U.S. President Donald Trump, once again, took out to Twitter to voice his criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in a thread that read: "D

U.S. President Donald Trump, once again, took out to Twitter to voice his criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in a thread that read: "Despite a Federal Reserve that doesn’t know what it is doing - raised rates far to fast (very low inflation, other parts of world slowing, lowering & easing) & did large scale tightening, $50 Billion/month, we are on course to have one of the best Months of June in U.S. history." "Think of what it could have been if the Fed had gotten it right. Thousands of points higher on the Dow, and GDP in the 4’s or even 5’s. Now they stick, like a stubborn child, when we need rates cuts, & easing, to make up for what other countries are doing against us. Blew it!" The US Dollar Index, which has already suffered heavy losses amid pricing of rate cut expectations, ignored those comments and was last seen losing 0.07% on the day at 96.03.

In view of Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, the prospect of easier policy from the Federal Reserve combined with hopes for some softening

In view of Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, the prospect of easier policy from the Federal Reserve combined with hopes for some softening in the trade tensions between the US and China are behind the softer tone of the USD in recent sessions.Key Quotes“Expectations of a loosening in monetary settings from the Fed has helped support a rise in the MSCI EM index of nearly 7% since the end of May.  Flows in and out of EM can be a strong indicator for the performance of the USD.  That said, while the promise of cheaper USD funding costs is a huge encouragement for risky assets, geopolitical tensions and slowing world growth are not.  This factors are likely to counter some of the market’s enthusiasm and temper the downside potential of the USD in the months ahead.” “The Fed is widely expected to cut rates at next month’s policy meeting and it is our projection that a second insurance rate cut is possible by the end of the year before a full blown easy cycle is embarked upon in 2020.  In isolation this would appear to be a very dovish signal for the USD.” “While easier monetary policy settings are a comfort to investors, the impact is likely to be outweighed if growth deteriorates and or if the geopolitical climate worsens. Over the past few weeks tensions between Iran and the US have intensified.  Although the JPY remains the favoured safe haven currency on geopolitical risks, if EM assets wobble on such events the USD is likely to find some support against a broad-basket of currencies.” “In respect of trade wars, the market is placing a lot of store on hopes of a meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump on the side-lines of this month’s G20 meeting. A relief rally in risky assets would almost certainly be triggered next week if some progress was made in some aspect of the trade wars.  This would likely coincide with a softer USD.” “Although the impact of slowing world growth will be softened by central bank action, in all likelihood the mood in EM is likely to become cautious.  This too suggests that the USD will remain relatively firm against a wide range of currencies.  Currently we are forecasting EUR/USD at 1.15 on a 12 month view.  However, if flows into EM are stymied by a further deterioration in geopolitics or world growth, the USD could remain firmer for longer.” 

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index registered at -0.05 above expectations (-0.37) in May

Commenting on the ongoing conflict with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump said that their request was very simple. "No nuclear weapons and no further

Commenting on the ongoing conflict with Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump said that their request was very simple. "No nuclear weapons and no further sponsoring of terror," Trump tweeted out. "China gets 91% of its Oil from the Straight, Japan 62%, & many other countries likewise. So why are we protecting the shipping lanes for other countries (many years) for zero compensation. All of these countries should be protecting their own ships on what has always been a dangerous journey. We don’t even need to be there in that the U.S. has just become (by far) the largest producer of energy anywhere in the world," Trump said in a Twitter thread. There wasn't a significant market reaction to these comments. 

Gold edged higher through the mid-European session on Monday and is currently placed at multi-year tops, around the $1410-11 region. The Fed, in its l

Adds to the post-FOMC upsurge and remained supported by persistent USD selling bias.Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further underpin the safe-haven demand.Overbought conditions warrant some near-term consolidation amid empty economic docket.Gold edged higher through the mid-European session on Monday and is currently placed at multi-year tops, around the $1410-11 region.  The Fed, in its latest monetary policy update last week indicated that it could cut interest rates by the end of this year to support economic growth and combat subdued inflationary pressure, which eventually turned out to be one of the key factors driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal.  This coupled with heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East - especially after Iran shot down an American surveillance drone, provided an additional boost to the precious metal's relative safe-haven status and remained supportive of the ongoing positive momentum. Meanwhile, bullish traders seemed unaffected by improving global risk sentiment, as depicted by a positive mood across equity markets, rather took cues from the prevailing US Dollar selling bias which tends to underpin the dollar-denominated commodity.  However, extreme oversold conditions on the daily chart might hold investors from placing any aggressive bullish bets and warrant some near-term consolidation before the next leg of a directional move and absent relevant market moving economic releases.Technical levels to watch 

The Turkish Lira is trading on a firm note at the beginning of the week, taking USD/TRY to the 5.80 region after bottoming out near the 5.70 neighbour

USD/TRY reverses the downside and tests the 5.80 area.Erdogan’s AK Party lost Istanbul mayoral elections… again.Turkey Manufacturing Confidence ticked higher to 102.5.The Turkish Lira is trading on a firm note at the beginning of the week, taking USD/TRY to the 5.80 region after bottoming out near the 5.70 neighbourhood.USD/TRY on the defensive post-electionsThe better tone in the Lira follows the victory of the Nation Alliance Party (CHP) over Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) at the rerun of the municipal elections in Istanbul on Sunday. In fact, CHP’s candidate E.Imamoglu won 28 districts while AKP’s candidate B.Yildirim lost 12 districts vs. his results in the March elections. Furthermore, TRY is deriving extra support after following auspicious results from the domestic docket, where Manufacturing Confidence improved to 102.5 for the current month and Capacity Utilization rose to 77.1% during the same period. TRY and the majority of Turkish assets are trading on an upbeat mood today in the wake of yesterday’s results and particularly after President R.Y.Erdogan conceded the defeat of his party at the elections. However, the current strength in TRY could be put to the test in the near term, as US sanctions against the country following the purchase of the Russian defence system looms closer.What to look for around TRYRecently, the CBRT left no doubts it will continue to support the current tight monetary conditions. However, the enduring disinflation process seen in past months opens the door to a potential shift from the central bank to a more accommodative stance, including the palpable chance of rate cuts despite this move on rates appears untimely in the near (and medium) term. Real headwinds for the Lira, however, remain well and sound and loom from the increasing likeliness of US sanctions and further escalation in US-Turkey tensions around the Russian S-400 defence system. It does not get better for TRY if we include in the equation the probable acceleration of outflows from the EM space in response to the deterioration of the US-China trade scenario. Against this context, another move to the psychological yardstick at 6.00 the figure in the short-term horizon should be everything but ruled out. On the positive side for TRY, Sunday’s results at the mayoral elections plus forecasted rate cuts by the Fed in the short-term should lend support to the currency and the EM space in general.USD/TRY key levelsAt the moment the pair is losing 0.37% at 5.7941 and a breakdown of 5.7116 (low Jun.24) would aim for 5.7025 (50% Fibo retracement of the 2019 rally) and then 5.6560 (low Jun.5). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 5.9038 (55-day SMA) followed by 5.9326 (high Jun.14) and finally 6.1516 (high May 23).

Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that it is almost three years to the day that the UK voted to leave the EU, but the UK

Christopher Graham, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that it is almost three years to the day that the UK voted to leave the EU, but the UK Parliament has thus far failed to agree on a way forward.Key Quotes“A new prime minister (PM) is now expected within the month and will try to reset the process to get the UK out by 31 October, but like Theresa May, he will face the same stark realities of Brexit.” “The first stage of the Conservative leadership contest is over: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt are the final two candidates. Now the Conservative Party membership will have its say, and while this race could experience twists and turns, Boris Johnson remains the frontrunner to become the next Conservative Party leader, and prime minister. But whoever wins will have just over four months until the current Article 50 deadline of 31 October 2019, and once the parliamentary summer recess and Party conference season are considered, the window is suddenly very tight for the next PM to get Brexit over the finish line.” “Johnson as PM would raise the risk of a no-deal exit by the end of 2019, but he could also increase the likelihood that the EU will offer some concessions on the Irish backstop to avoid a no-deal scenario. However, if the UK Parliament again stopped a no-deal exit (by forcing the PM to request another Article 50 extension from the EU), a general election would likely become the preferred way of breaking the deadlock.”

TD Securities analysis team suggests that the Mexico’s April economic activity should continue to show the downside pressure on the economy, supportin

TD Securities analysis team suggests that the Mexico’s April economic activity should continue to show the downside pressure on the economy, supporting market positioning for rate cuts from Banxico.Key Quotes“In this regard, bi-weekly CPI is expected to show a further reduction to near 4% on headline. We currently forecast convergence to the 3% target in the coming quarters, however this remains sensitive to shocks as well as inflation expectations.”

Citing industry sources familiar with the matter, Reuters today reported that Iranian crude oil exports have dropped so far in June to "300,000 barrel

Citing industry sources familiar with the matter, Reuters today reported that Iranian crude oil exports have dropped so far in June to "300,000 barrels per day (bpd) or less," amid the sanctions imposed by the United States.  "It's a very low level of real crude exports," one of the sources told Reuters.  Crude oil doesn't seem to be paying much attention to these headlines with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate trading with small daily gains a little below the $58 mark.

After erasing more than 100 pips and closing the previous week at its lowest level since early January at 107.31, the USD/JPY pair is moving sideways

10-year US Treasury bond yield erases large part of Friday's recovery gains.US Dollar Index drops to multi-month lows near the 96 mark.Wall Street looks to open the day with small gains on Monday.After erasing more than 100 pips and closing the previous week at its lowest level since early January at 107.31, the USD/JPY pair is moving sideways on Monday, waiting for the next significant catalyst. As of writing, the pair was trading at 107.25. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade conflict helped the JPY find demand as a safer alternative throughout the week last week. More importantly, the FOMC's dovish shift and the sharp fall witnessed in the 10-year Treasury bond yields allowed the bearish pressure to remain intact. Although the 10-year T-bond yield, which staged a technical correction last Friday, is now losing more than 1.5% on Monday, the pair seems to be taking a break amid the technically oversold conditions. Furthermore, the S&P 500 Futures is up 0.2% on the day to hint at a positive start in Wall Street, which could make it difficult for the JPY to continue to gather strength in the remainder of the session. On the other hand, ahead of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, the US Dollar Index testing the 96 mark, revealing that investors continue to price Fed rate cut expectations and suggesting that any recovery attempts are likely to remain shallow amid the dismal tone surrounding the buck.Technical levels to watch for 

Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the USD continued to weaken on Friday on the back of weaker US PMIs and dovish comment

Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, notes that the USD continued to weaken on Friday on the back of weaker US PMIs and dovish comments by the Fed’s Kashkari, with EUR/USD climbing above the 1.1370 level.Key Quotes“IMM positioning data shows that investors have started to scale back their stretched long positions in USD and reduce their short positions in the CHF, EUR and JPY. As the market is assuming some probability of the Fed delivering a 50bp cut in July, weak US and global macro figures along with lack of progress in trade talks is needed to sustain current USD weakness.”

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the US is planning more sanctions against Iran in order to force the country back to the negotiating table and ag

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the US is planning more sanctions against Iran in order to force the country back to the negotiating table and agree on a deal to ensure Iran never requires nuclear weapons.Key Quotes“US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo will visit Saudi Arabia and the UAE to discuss a global coalition against Iran. Iran has already seen a sharp drop in oil production following the first round of US sanctions, which has tightened world oil supply.” “New sanctions are therefore likely to be felt primarily in Iran and to a lesser extent in the rest of the world. Brent is trading above USD65/bbl. However, we reckon this is more a function of the recent recovery in risk sentiment and weakening of the USD with the outlook for upcoming rate cuts in the US.”

The USD/CAD pair, which erased nearly 180 pips last week, started the new week under a modest pressure and broke below the 1.32 mark. As of writing, t

On Monday, WTI rose above $58 for the first time in June.US Dollar Index struggles to stage a meaningful recovery.Coming up: Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.The USD/CAD pair, which erased nearly 180 pips last week, started the new week under a modest pressure and broke below the 1.32 mark. As of writing, the pair was down 0.28% on a daily basis at 1.3185. The lack of developments that could deescalate the situation in the Middle East continues to support crude oil prices, and the commodity-sensitive loonie, as investors price possible supply disruptions. Although the U.S. special representative Hook earlier today said that President Trump was "very willing to sit down with Iran" it was largely ignored by the market participants. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is trading a little below $58, adding 0.5% on the day.  On the other hand, investors don't yet seem to be willing to help the greenback recover the losses it suffered following last week's dovish Fed remarks and disappointing data releases. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 67.7% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut and a 32.3% chance of a 50 basis points rate cut. Later in the session, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index will be looked upon for fresh impetus. However, ahead of FOMC Chairman Powell's speech on Tuesday, investors could opt out to remain on the sidelines, paving the way for the extension of the consolidation phase. At the moment, the DXY is down 0.07% on the day at 96.02.Technical levels to watch for 

According to analysts at Royal bank of Canada, next week brings some key Canadian data that might determine whether the Bank of Canada follows the Fed

According to analysts at Royal bank of Canada, next week brings some key Canadian data that might determine whether the Bank of Canada follows the Fed in adopting a more dovish stance.Key Quotes “The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey is an important input into BoC decision-making. The latest edition will garner even more attention than usual given a further escalation in global trade tensions since April’s survey.” “Just ahead of the BOS, April’s GDP report will give insight into whether softer business sentiment is finding its way into activity indicators. March’s GDP figures showed plenty of resilience with nearly every sector growing in the month. April should be a bit more mixed with manufacturing output expected to be flat. That sector will be a focal point in the coming months given a slowdown in industrial production globally (including in the US) that could intensify with recent tariff hikes.” “Retail sale volumes edged down 0.2% in April though other services industries should pick up some of the slack. On balance we look for GDP to edge up by 0.1% in April, which following March’s more robust gain, should leave Q2 growth tracking a solid 2% annualized rate.”

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that the May Chicago Fed survey for May and Dallas Fed survey for June in the US are scheduled to release today. Key

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that the May Chicago Fed survey for May and Dallas Fed survey for June in the US are scheduled to release today.Key Quotes“Tuesday: Overnight, the BoJ minutes will be released while data in Europe includes June confidence indicators in France and June CBI survey data in the UK. In the US we’ll get the April FHFA house price index, April S&P CoreLogic house price index, June Richmond Fed survey, May new home sales and June consumer confidence. The Fed’s Powell, Williams, Bostic, Barkin and Bullard are all due to speak.” “Wednesday: Data in Europe includes July consumer confidence in Germany while in the US we’re due to get the preliminary May durable and capital goods orders data, May advance goods trade balance and May wholesale inventories. The BoE’s Carney, Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Saunders are due to testify before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee on the May inflation report. Meanwhile, NATO defence ministers will meet in Brussels for two days of discussions, while the contenders for the US Democratic presidential nomination will start two days of debates.” “Thursday: Overnight, May retail sales data in Japan is due to be released along with May industrial profits in China. In Europe we get preliminary June CPI readings in Germany and Spain while in the US the third reading of Q1 GDP is due along with the latest weekly jobless claims reading, May pending home sales and June Kansas Fed survey. The ECB’s Nowotny is also due to speak, while part two of the Fed’s stress test results will be released.” “Friday: The G-20 meeting in Osaka will begin, continuing into the weekend with the expectation that President’s Trump and Xi will meet on the sidelines. The data highlight is the May PCE inflation report in the US. Prior to that we’ll get May industrial production and employment data in Japan, preliminary June CPI in France, Italy and for the Euro Area, and final Q1 GDP revisions for the UK. In the US we’ll also get the May personal spending and income data, June MNI Chicago PMI and final June revisions for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.”

Given last week’s decisive break below an important confluence support – comprising of the very important 200-day SMA and near five-month-old ascendin

The USD/CAD pair met with some fresh supply at the start of a new trading week and weakened farther below the 1.3200 handle, back closer to multi-month lows.The ongoing upsurge in Crude Oil prices continued benefitting the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and turned out to be one of the key factors exerting pressure.Given last week’s decisive break below an important confluence support – comprising of the very important 200-day SMA and near five-month-old ascending trend-channel, the price action clearly indicates that the near-term bearish pressure might still be far from being over. Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have managed to move away from oversold conditions and maintained their bearish bias on the daily chart, reinforcing the near-term bearish breakdown and supporting prospects for an extension of the ongoing bearish trajectory.  A fresh wave of selling below mid-1.3100s (recent swing lows) now seems to accelerate the fall towards the 1.3100 round figure mark before the pair eventually drops to challenge yearly lows, around the 1.3070-65 region touched in early- February.  On the flip side, any attempted recovery back above the 1.3200 handle now seems to confront some fresh supply near the 1.3245-50 region and is likely to remain capped at the confluence support breakpoint, around the 1.3275-80 zone.USD/CAD daily chart 

Standard Chartered analysts note that modest non-FDI outflows of USD 16.4bn resumed in May for the Chinese economy, following moderate inflows of USD

Standard Chartered analysts note that modest non-FDI outflows of USD 16.4bn resumed in May for the Chinese economy, following moderate inflows of USD 10.4bn in April, according to our estimates.Key Quotes“The mild outflows suggest broadly stable market expectations, despite sharp depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) in first half of May. Several financial officials made comments to stabilise the market, keeping USD-CNY firmly around the 6.90 level in second half of the month.” “FX assets held by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) fell by a modest USD 0.2bn in May, following a small USD 0.1bn decline in April; this suggests still-balanced overall cross-border flows. The merchandise trade surplus widened to USD 41.7bn in May from USD 13.8bn in April, partially offsetting the estimated services deficit of USD 25.0bn.” “Outflow pressure in May could have been much worse given the jump in USD-CNY above 6.90 amid renewed US-China trade concerns. We expect trade negotiations to resume after the meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump at the G20 summit, supporting our view that USD-CNY is unlikely to break above 7.0 in the short term.”

After gaining nearly 100 pips in the previous week, the NZD/USD pair continued to push higher on Monday and reached its best level in two weeks at 0.6

Credit card spending in NZ expanded more than expected in May.Greenback stays under pressure as investors price rate cuts. RBNZ is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decisions on Wednesday.After gaining nearly 100 pips in the previous week, the NZD/USD pair continued to push higher on Monday and reached its best level in two weeks at 0.6615 before going into a consolidation phase. As of writing, the pair was moving sideways near the 0.6610 handle, adding 0.35% on a daily basis. The broad-based greenback weakness that was caused by the FOMC's dovish shift last Wednesday and remained persistent with Friday's data from the U.S. showing slowdown in the business activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The US Dollar Index lost 1.4% on a weekly basis last week and is now inching closer to the 96 mark for the first time since mid-March.  The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index from the U.S. will be featured in the economic docket in the second half of the day. FOMC Chairman Powell's speech on Tuesday, however, is likely to be the next significant catalyst. On the other hand, today's data from New Zealand showed that credit card spending in May increased by 6.6% on a yearly basis to beat the market expectation of 5.4%. In the early trading hours of the Asian session, trade balance data from NZ will be looked upon for fresh impetus. More importantly, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the policy statement on Wednesday. Technical levels  

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the German IFO slipped half a point to 97.4 in June, with the Current Assessment rising a tick off a multi-ye

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the German IFO slipped half a point to 97.4 in June, with the Current Assessment rising a tick off a multi-year low, while the Expectations Index slipped a point leaving it down near its February multi-year low.Key Quotes“It caps a mixed week for German survey data, with the ZEW Expectations Index showing a very sharp drop in June, while the PMI Manufacturing bounced off its recent lows.”

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning report for the week ended on June 18: - Speculators trimmed their short positions to the lowest

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning report for the week ended on June 18: -       Speculators trimmed their short positions to the lowest level since June 16 2018 on the Japanese safe haven on the back of rising geopolitical jitters exclusively on rising US-Iran effervescence. In addition, the likeliness of rate cuts by the Fed has also spurred the preference for riskier assets, all in detriment of JPY. -       The speculative community pushed USD net longs to fresh multi-month tops ahead of the FOMC meeting. The subsequent dovish tilt by the FOMC should impact on the next report, as the event was after the cut-off date. -       EUR net shorts dropped to the lowest level since February 5 despite the ECB showed a clear will to return to rate cuts or QE following its monetary policy meeting.

Looking at a slightly bigger picture, the pair has been trending lower along a short-term descending trend-channel from yearly tops - set on April 24,

The USD/JPY pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained well within the striking distance of multi-month lows set on Friday.Near-term oversold conditions on the daily chart seemed to be the only factor lending some support, though the uptick lacked any strong conviction.Looking at a slightly bigger picture, the pair has been trending lower along a short-term descending trend-channel from yearly tops - set on April 24, indicating a well-established near-term bearish trend. This coupled with the fact that the pair has found acceptance below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 104.69-112.40 up-move further support prospects for an extension of the bearish trajectory. A sustained break below the 107.00 handle will add credence to the negative outlook and turn the pair vulnerable to aim towards challenging the trend-channel support, currently near the 106.35 region. On the flip side, any attempted recovery move might now confront fresh supply near the 108.00 handle ahead of the 108.50-70 resistance – marking 50% Fibo. level and also nearing the trend-channel hurdle. Only a convincing break through the mentioned confluence barrier might negate the bearish outlook and prompt some aggressive short-covering move, lifting the pair beyond the 109.00 round figure mark.USD/JPY daily chart 

A Reuters witness notes that the UK parliament was evacuated on Monday due to a fire alert. Further Details: A message over the PA system urged people

A Reuters witness notes that the UK parliament was evacuated on Monday due to a fire alert. Further Details: A message over the PA system urged people to leave the building. Lawmakers were also asked to leave the area as a loud alarm sounded.

WTI (futures on Nymex) pulls back from fresh three-week highs of 58.21 reached in early trades, now consolidating below the 58 handle, as the bulls aw

Escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions accentuate oil supply concerns, boost prices.Hopes of OPEC+ cuts extension and US-China deal ahead of G20 Summit underpin.Eyes on US-Iran news, US weekly crude supply reports and trade for fresh directives. WTI (futures on Nymex) pulls back from fresh three-week highs of 58.21 reached in early trades, now consolidating below the 58 handle, as the bulls await fresh developments surrounding the US and Iran for the next push higher.Upside stalls just below the 200-daily moving average (DMA)The US oil rose over 1% so far this Monday, reacting positively to the increased supply risks, emanating from mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran after the US Secretary of State Pompeo announced over the weekend that the US would announce “significant sanctions” on Iran on Monday. This comes after the US drone was shot down by Iran on Thursday that escalated the Middle East tensions and almost prompted the US to retaliate. It was reported on Friday that the US President Trump called-off an imminent military strike on Iran. While the Iranian conflict drove WTI about 10% higher last week, the expectations that the OPEC+ will agree on extending the oil output cuts next month also keep the sentiment around the black gold buoyed. Further, broad-based US dollar weakness on dovish Fed rate expectations also collaborate to the bullish momentum in the prices. A weaker greenback makes the USD-denominated oil cheaper for the holders in foreign currencies. Despite the upbeat momentum, the bulls take a breather after having run into the key 200-DMA placed at 58.29. A break above the last will open doors for attest of the 100-DMA at 58.76. Meanwhile, “on the downside, the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo come into focus that guard prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44,” FXStreet’s Analyst, Ross J. Burland notes. Attention now turns to the US weekly crude stocks report due later this week and on the US-China trade developments for fresh trading impulse.WTI Technical Levels 

The USD/CHF pair struggled to capitalize on its attempted intraday bounce and has now retreated back to multi-month lows, refreshed earlier this Monda

The USD adds to the post-FOMC losses and fails to assist the pair to register any recovery.Improving risk sentiment dents CHF's safe-haven status and helped limit the downside.The USD/CHF pair struggled to capitalize on its attempted intraday bounce and has now retreated back to multi-month lows, refreshed earlier this Monday. The US Dollar added to last week's post-FOMC heavy losses and remained on the defensive at the start of a new trading week, which was seen as one of the key factors keeping a lid on any meaningful recovery for the major.  It is worth recalling that the Fed, in its latest monetary policy update last Wednesday, showed readiness to cut interest rates later this year to counter a global economic slowdown and combat subdued inflationary pressures. Having failed to witness acceptance above the parity mark, the pair witnessed a dramatic turnaround and tumbled over 250-pips, back closer to yearly lows and recording its lowest weekly close since September 2018. The pair held on the defensive at the start of a new trading week, albeit improving risk sentiment - amid the latest US-China trade optimism, undermined the Swiss Franc's safe-haven demand and helped limit deeper losses.  In absence of any major market moving economic releases, near-term oversold conditions also seemed to be one of the key factors holding investors from placing fresh bearish bets and lending some support, at least for now. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to attract any buying interest at lower levels or continues with its bearish trajectory as the focus now shifts to the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting later this week. Technical levels to watch 

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1389 Today Daily Change 29 Today Daily Change % 0.18 Today daily open 1.1369 Trends Daily SMA2

The march north in EUR/USD remains unabated and is already challenging the 1.1400 neighbourhood.After leaving behind the 200-day/week SMAs in the mid-1.1300s, the pair now seems to be ready to extend the up move to the 1.1400 mark and beyond.That said, March tops in the 1.1450 region emerge as the next hurdle of relevance and are considered the last defence of a test of 2019 highs in the 1.1550/70 band.EUR/USD daily chart  

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister is reported by Reuters, as saying that his government will counter the US sanctions on Iran. Key Headlines: The US is

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister is reported by Reuters, as saying that his government will counter the US sanctions on Iran. Key Headlines: The US is deliberately raising tensions around Iran. The US would rather impose new sanctions instead of seeking dialogue.

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 96.11 Today Daily Change 14 Today Daily Change % -0.09 Today daily open 96.2 Trends Daily

DXY lost further ground during last week and is now flirting with the critical support in the 96.00 neighbourhood, where coincide a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 and the 200-week SMA (95.97).The recent breach of the 200-day SMA and the multi-month support line has opened the door to a deeper pullback and shifted the outlook to the dovish side.In case bulls regain the upper hand, the initial target emerges at the 96.55/60 band, where converge the 200-day SMA and the now resistance line. Above this area, the 100-day SMA at 97.06 should return to the radar.DXY daily chart  

The AUD/USD pair remained well bid through the early European session and remained well within the striking distance of near two-week tops set earlier

The recent US-China trade optimism continues to underpin the Aussie.The USD remains on the defensive amid increasing Fed rate cut bets. The upside seems limited ahead of Trump-Xi meeting later this week. The AUD/USD pair remained well bid through the early European session and remained well within the striking distance of near two-week tops set earlier this Monday. The pair built on last week's goodish bounce from multi-month lows, with a combination of supporting factors fueling the ongoing positive momentum for the fifth consecutive session. The China-proxy Australian Dollar continues to benefit from the recent optimism over a possible resolution to the prolonged trade disputes between the world's two largest economies, especially after the US President Donald Trump last week said that he will have an extended meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the G20 summit.  The bullish sentiment got an additional boost on Monday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe refrained from providing any hints about the central bank's future policy moves and said that the macro growth is still reasonable, albeit acknowledged downside risks to the global economic outlook. On the other hand, the US Dollar continues to be weighed down by a more dovish shift by the FOMC, clearly indicating that it remains ready to cut interest rates by the end of this year to support economic growth and combat subdued inflationary pressure, and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the major. However, in absence of any fresh fundamental triggers - in terms of any major market moving economic releases, the upside is likely to remain capped as traders now seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting later this week. Technical levels to watch 

Carsten Brzeski - Chief Economist at ING Germany, offered his take on the latest disappointment from Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the I

Carsten Brzeski - Chief Economist at ING Germany, offered his take on the latest disappointment from Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, which dropped for the third month in a row to its lowest level in more than four years.Key Quotes:“The German economy currently is the best showcase model for a broader phenomenon: the stark discrepancy between external risks and uncertainty and solid domestic fundamentals. This discrepancy explains why, despite the sharp slowdown in confidence indicators, economic growth has actually been holding up well. The second quarter does not (yet) look recessionary. The big question for the months ahead is clearly whether this time could really be different. If the decoupling between manufacturing and services were part of a structural transition, then it could be. But if previous patterns were to prevail, the slump in the manufacturing sector could infect the rest of the economy. We maintain our optimism and favour the hypothesis that this time is indeed different.” “In our view, a bottoming out is in sight for German industry. As long as trade conflicts stay within the boundaries of stock market volatility and a possible weakening of the US economy, tensions could initially increase but without leading to an extreme escalation. Also, the recent u-turn of the European Central Bank towards more dovishness indicates that financing conditions for new domestic investments will remain favourable. However, let's be clear, a bottoming out is still far from being a strong rebound.”
 

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 122.32 Today Daily Change 43 Today Daily Change % 0.28 Today daily open 121.98 Trends Daily SMA2

EUR/JPY surpassed the 10- day and 21-day SMA and appears to be heading further north on the back of the rally in the European currency.Immediately to the upside emerge June’s peaks near 123.20 ahead of the 55-day SMA at 123.43 and 123.75 (high May 21).Ideally, EUR/JPY needs to clear the short-term resistance line at 122.36 in order to alleviate the current downside pressure.EUR/JPY daily chart  

The shared currency is trading on a positive note on Monday, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1380/90 band in the wake of IFO numbers. EUR/USD ignores data, fo

EUR/USD remains near 1.1400 on mixed results from IFO.DXY holding on above the 96.00 key support.German IFO came in on a mixed tone.The shared currency is trading on a positive note on Monday, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1380/90 band in the wake of IFO numbers.EUR/USD ignores data, focus on USD, risk trendsThe pair clings to its decent daily gains so far today, although a test/surpass of the critical handle at 1.1400 the figure still remains elusive for EUR-bulls. Spot has practically ignored today’s calendar in the euro area where the German IFO showed mixed results for the month of June. In fact, Business Expectations came in short of estimates at 94.2, Current Assessment surprised to the upside at 100.8 and the key Business Climate matched expectations at 97.4. In the meantime, and absent stronger catalysts, the pair keeps looking to the greenback and the broader risk appetite trends for direction, all ahead of the key G-20 meeting in Japan on June 28-29. The rally in EUR has been exclusively fuelled by USD-weakness, although it is expected that sellers return to the market once the post-FOMC dust settles, as investors should start to price in the recent dovish tweak by the ECB (rate cuts and QE included).What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.13% at 1.1381 and a surpass of 1.1389 (high Jun.24) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.1350 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18).

The GBP/USD pair quickly retreated around 40-45 pips during the early European session and dropped to fresh session lows, around the 1.2630-20 region

Once again fails near the 1.2760 supply zone despite weaker USD.No-deal Brexit fears continue to keep a lid on attempted up-moves.The GBP/USD pair quickly retreated around 40-45 pips during the early European session and dropped to fresh session lows, around the 1.2630-20 region in the last hour. The pair continued with its struggle to make it through the 1.2760 supply zone and has now drifted into negative territory, with bulls shrugging off the prevailing US Dollar selling bias. The latest dovish shift by the FOMC - signalling a possible interest rate by the end of this year, continued weighing on the greenback and dragged it to near three-month lows on Monday. However, the fact that Boris Johnson is still seen as the favourite to be the next British Prime minister, fears of a no-deal Brexit held investors from placing any aggressive bullish bet rather prompted some fresh selling at higher levels. It is worth reporting that Johnson has already cleared his stance to leave the EU at the end of October 2019 with or without a deal. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden drop lacked any obvious fundamental trigger and seemed to be the only factor helping limit further downside, at least for the time being. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a subsequent price action before traders start positioning for any meaningful intraday momentum amid absent relevant market moving economic releases on Monday.Technical levels to watch 

Following the release of mixed German IFO business survey, the IFO Economist offers his afterthoughts on the data release. The German economy is headi

Following the release of mixed German IFO business survey, the IFO Economist offers his afterthoughts on the data release. The German economy is heading for the doldrums. Companies have grown increasingly pessimistic about the coming months. However, their assessment of the current business situation improved marginally.

The headline German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 97.4 in June, weaker than last month's 97.9 and beating the consensus estimates pointing to

The headline German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 97.4 in June, weaker than last month's 97.9 and beating the consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 97.3. Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment also missed estimates by a big margin and arrived at 100.8 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 100.6 and 100.0 anticipated. On the other hand, the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, came in at 94.2 for June, down from previous month’s 95.3 reading and worse than market expectations of 94.5. The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Germany IFO - Expectations came in at 94.2 below forecasts (94.5) in June

Germany IFO - Current Assessment came in at 100.8, above forecasts (100) in June

Germany IFO - Business Climate above expectations (97.3) in June: Actual (97.4)

The USD/CAD pair met with some fresh supply at the start of a new trading week and slipped below the 1.3200 handle, erasing Friday's modest recovery g

Oil continues scaling higher amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and underpins Loonie.The USD remains on the defensive amid Fed rate cut bets and does little to lend any support.The USD/CAD pair met with some fresh supply at the start of a new trading week and slipped below the 1.3200 handle, erasing Friday's modest recovery gains. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated further after Iran shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz last week and the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that significant sanctions on Iran would be announced on Monday. The latest developments helped Oil prices to extend gains from last week, which turned out to be one of the key factors underpinning demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and exerting some fresh downward pressure on the major.  On the other hand, the US Dollar remained on the defensive in the wake of the latest dovish shift by the FOMC, wherein the central bank indicated that it stands ready to cut interest rates to support economic growth and combat subdued inflation pressure.   The combination of negative forces failed to assist the pair to build on Friday's goodish intraday recovery, rather dragged it back within the striking distance of multi-month lows set last week, though the downside seemed limited, at least for the time being. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release either from the US or Canada and hence, the USD/Oil price dynamics might continue to act as key determinants of the pair's momentum through Monday's trading session. Technical levels to watch 

The South Korean news agency, Yonhap, reports that the US President Trump is mulling a visit to DMZ during his visit to South Korea. No further detail

The South Korean news agency, Yonhap, reports that the US President Trump is mulling a visit to Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) during his visit to South Korea. No further details are provided on the same.

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, as he sheds some light on the global energy market situation. Ke

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, as he sheds some light on the global energy market situation. Key Headlines:  We see rivalry heating up on global energy markets. Oil markets have stabilized, investments became attractive thanks to global oil deal.

According to Khoon Goh - Head of Asia Research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), the larger-than-expected increase in Singapor

According to Khoon Goh - Head of Asia Research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ), the larger-than-expected increase in Singapore’s CPI-All Items inflation to 0.9% y/y in May do not signal a rise in inflationary pressure.Key Quotes:“Instead the cause, at least relative to our expectations, was a larger unwinding of the previous month’s S&CC rebate, and a large increase in private transport costs during the month. The MAS Core Inflation was unchanged from the previous month at 1.3%. There are signs that inflationary pressure from the labour market is starting to ease. Along with lower oil prices compared to a year ago, the MAS Core Inflation is set to fall towards 1% y/y in the coming months. If there are further signs that the downside risks to Singapore’s export and growth outlook are worsening, then Singapore’s monetary policy could tilt towards an easing later in the year.”
 

A break below the 107.00 handle should motivate USD/JPY to extend the drop to the 106.60 region, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-

A break below the 107.00 handle should motivate USD/JPY to extend the drop to the 106.60 region, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.Key Quotes24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that USD is “deep in oversold territory and the next support at 107.00 is unlikely to come under serious threat”. We added, USD is “more likely to consolidate its loss and trade sideways between 107.00 and 107.65”. The subsequent price action was close to our narrative as USD rebounded from 107.04 to 107.73 before dropping back to end the day little changed at 107.30. Indicators are still unwinding from oversold conditions and USD could continue to trade sideways for now, likely not moving much out of last Friday’s 107.04/107.73 range”. Next 1-3 weeks: “USD tried but failed to break the 107.00 level that was first highlighted last Thursday (20 Jun, spot at 107.70). The price action was not exactly surprising as deeply oversold shorter-term conditions suggest USD could consolidate and trade sideways for 1 to 2 days. As long as the ‘key resistance’ at 108.00 is intact (no change in level from last Friday), the current ‘negative phase’ that started 3 weeks ago (03 Jun, spot at 108.30) appears to have legs to extend lower. From here, a break of 107.00 would indicate that USD is ready to tackle the next support at 106.60”.

Gold held steady above the key $1400 psychological mark and was seen consolidating the recent strong gains to multi-year tops. A combination of diverg

Escalating geopolitical tensions continue to underpin the commodity's safe-haven demand.Dovish Fed outlook remained supportive, though the US-China trade optimism capped gains.Gold held steady above the key $1400 psychological mark and was seen consolidating the recent strong gains to multi-year tops. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any fresh impetus to the commodity and led to a subdued/range-bound price action at the start of a new trading week. Intensifying geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, especially after the latter shot down an American surveillance drone last week, benefitted the precious metal's safe-haven status. This coupled with the latest dovish shift by the FOMC - signalling to cut interest rates by the end of this year, extended some additional support and underpinned the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell to a near three-month low against a basket of currencies and further collaborated to the strong bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar-denominated commodity. However, the recent optimism over a possible resolution to the prolonged US-China trade disputes and improving global risk sentiment turned out to be key factors keeping a lid on any strong follow-through. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to influence the price action through Monday’s trading session. Even from a technical perspective, extreme overbought conditions on the daily chart held investors from placing fresh bets and warrant some near-term consolidation before the next leg of a directional move. Technical levels to watch 

The bid note around the European currency remains well and sound so far today and is now lifting EUR/USD to fresh tops in the vicinity of 1.1400 the f

EUR/USD extends the up move near the 1.1400 area.Focus of attention remains on the trade front, Fed rate cuts.Next of relevance will be the German IFO.The bid note around the European currency remains well and sound so far today and is now lifting EUR/USD to fresh tops in the vicinity of 1.1400 the figure.EUR/USD now focused on IFOSpot is up for the fourth consecutive session so far on Monday, extending the upside momentum to the boundaries of the key 1.1400 handle always on the back of the continuation of the sell off in the buck. The up move in the pair gained extra traction after it cleared both the 200-week SMA and 200-day SMA in the mid-1.1300s at the end of last week, opening the door for a potential visit to March tops in the 1.1450 area. Easing trade tensions and the likeliness of the Fed lowering rates as early as next month have been sustaining the strong rebound from last week’s lows in the 1.1180/75 band. Moving forward, the German IFO survey will shed further light on the sentiment around the first economy of the bloc. Across the ocean, second-tier publications include the Chicago Fed Activity Index and the Dallas Fed manufacturing gauge. The rally in EUR has been exclusively fuelled by USD-weakness, although it is expected that sellers return to the market once the post-FOMC dust settles, as investors should start to price in the recent dovish tweak by the ECB (rate cuts and QE included).What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.13% at 1.1383 and a surpass of 1.1389 (high Jun.24) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.1350 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18).

Kazakhstan Energy Minister Kanat Aldabergenovich Bozumbayev was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that Kazakhstan aims to raise oil produ

Kazakhstan Energy Minister Kanat Aldabergenovich Bozumbayev was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that Kazakhstan aims to raise oil production at Kashagan oil field to up to 420,000 barrels per day (bpd) by year-end from 400,000. He added that it will not be easy to come to agreement on continuation of OPEC, Non-OPEC oil output cuts due to Iran’s and Venezuela’s stance.

The German IFO Business Survey Overview The German IFO survey for June is slated for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climat

The German IFO Business Survey OverviewThe German IFO survey for June is slated for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to drop to 97.3 versus 97.9 previous. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen weaker at 100.0 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 94.5 in the reported month vs. 95.3 last.Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.  How could affect EUR/USD?The spot looks to correct towards the 1.1350 psychological level on downbeat IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could extend the bullish momentum above the 1.14 handle on a positive surprise.   According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “The pair might now aim towards reclaiming the 1.1400 round figure mark before eventually darting to March monthly swing high, around the 1.1445-50 region. On the flip side, immediate support is now pegged near mid-1.1300s (200-DMA) and is followed by the trend-channel resistance breakpoint, around the 1.1330-25 region, which should now act as a key near-term pivotal point for bullish traders.”Key NotesEUR/USD now targets 1.1416 and 1.1570 – Commerzbank German IFO survey in spotlight amid trade war – Danske Bank ECB Watch: Draghi’s last shot – Nordea MarketsAbout the German IFO Business ClimateThis German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Turkey Capacity Utilization: 77.1% (June) vs 76.3%

Turkey Manufacturing Confidence rose from previous 98.9 to 102.5 in June

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is out with the latest announcement, citing that the Chinese President Xi will travel to Japan for G20 on from

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is out with the latest announcement, citing that the Chinese President Xi will travel to Japan for G20 from June 27th to 29th.

Tony Kelly, Senior Economist – International, Group Economics at National Australia Bank (NAB) believes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing

Tony Kelly, Senior Economist – International, Group Economics at National Australia Bank (NAB) believes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing to cut the interest rates as soon as next month.Key Quotes: “Trade disputes continue to cast a shadow over the US economic outlook. While recent data suggest some upside risk to our Q2 GDP forecast, business surveys point to a slowing economy. The Fed is getting ready to cut rates; we expect two 25bp reductions in the federal funds rate, with July and September now the most likely dates. There is considerable event risk around these projections – including the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese Presidents. Risks still appear slanted towards the Fed making more rather than fewer cuts."

The USD/JPY pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained well within the striking distance of near six-month lows set in the previo

Improving risk sentiment undermines JPY’s safe-haven demand and lends some support.The USD bulls held on the defensive amid increasing Fed rate cut bets and capped gains.The USD/JPY pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained well within the striking distance of near six-month lows set in the previous session. Following a two-way price action on Friday, the pair regained some positive traction at the start of a new trading week but seemed struggling to extend the momentum further beyond mid-107.00s. Stronger global risk sentiment - supported by the latest US-China trade optimism, turned out to be one of the key factors weighing on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and providing a minor lift to the major. However, sentiment surrounding the US Dollar remained weak in the wake of last week's dovish FOMC - showing readiness to cut interest rates to support economic growth, which capped any strong up-move. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair might have actually bottomed out in the near-term or positioning for any further near-term recovery move. In absence of any major market moving economic releases on Monday, the combination of diverging forces could possibly lead to a consolidative price action amid near-term oversold conditions. Technical outlookAs Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet's own American Chief Analyst notes – “The pair is developing below a firmly bearish 20 SMA which keeps heading lower well below the 100 and 200 SMA. The Momentum indicator heads marginally higher below its 100 line, but the RSI indicator remains directionless at 26, all of which favors further declines ahead.” “Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is bearish, now developing below sharply bearish moving averages and with technical indicators having resumed their declines well into negative ground,” after correcting oversold conditions”, she added further.

Open interest in JPY futures markets shrunk by just 378 contracts on Friday, prolonging the erratic performance, according to preliminary figures from

Open interest in JPY futures markets shrunk by just 378 contracts on Friday, prolonging the erratic performance, according to preliminary figures from CME Group. In the same line, volume dropped by almost 26.9K contracts.USD/JPY well supported near 107.00The recent decline in USD/JPY was on the back of declining open interest and volume, which could spark a squeeze higher in the short-term horizon. Against this backdrop, spot is likely to meet initial resistance above the 108.00 handle, where lies the 10-day SMA.

In light of the ongoing strong rebound, EUR/USD could now advance to 1.1416 ahead of 1.1570, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Com

In light of the ongoing strong rebound, EUR/USD could now advance to 1.1416 ahead of 1.1570, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesEUR/USD last week tested and saw a strong rebound off support at 1.1176, the March low. The market has overcome on a closing basis both the 200 week ma and the 200 day ma at 1.1349. This should trigger an attempt on the 1.1416 55 week moving average and the 1.1570 2019 high. Beyond this we target 1.1815/54 (highs from June and September 2018)”. “We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and we target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge). Initial support at 1.1175”.

Iran’s FARS News is reporting the comments from the Iranian Energy Minister Bijan Zanganeh, as he denies the reports that level of oil exports has fal

Iran’s FARS News is reporting the comments from the Iranian Energy Minister Bijan Zanganeh, as he denies the reports that level of oil exports has fallen in recent days. Both crude benchmarks continue to advance in early European trades, with WTI now testing 58 handle while Brent looks to regain the 65 mark.

A close above 1.2763 could trigger a positive phase in GBP/USD, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we were

A close above 1.2763 could trigger a positive phase in GBP/USD, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.Key Quotes24-hour view: “Last Friday, we were of the view the “advance in GBP could edge above 1.2730 but the month-to-date high of 1.2763 is likely out of reach”. GBP subsequently rose to 1.2748 before closing right at the high. Upward momentum has improved and for today, a move above 1.2763 would not be surprising but the next resistance at 1.2800 may not yield so easily. Support is at 1.2715 followed by 1.2685”. Next 1-3 weeks: “Our narrative from last Thursday (20 Jun, spot at 1.2655) wherein the “uptick in momentum suggests GBP could test the month-to-date high at 1.2763” appears to be on track as GBP touched 1.2748 last Friday (21 Jun). While it is early days yet, there are some nascent signs that GBP could have made a short-term at 1.2507 last week. Meanwhile, GBP has to register a NY closing above 1.2763 in order to indicate the start of a ‘positive phase’ that could potentially lead to a rise towards 1.2850. On the downside, only a move below 1.2650 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased”.

Following comments are out on the wires from the UK Conservatives Party member Hunt, via Reuters. We can get a better deal on the backstop. Brexit mus

Following comments are out on the wires from the UK Conservatives Party member Hunt, via Reuters. We can get a better deal on the backstop. Brexit must be delivered. One cannot be Prime Minister without answering questions. It is disrespectful for Boris Johnson not to take part in debates.

CMA Group’s advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed open interest rose by around 2.2K contracts on Friday following two consecutive drops. Vol

CMA Group’s advanced figures for GBP futures markets showed open interest rose by around 2.2K contracts on Friday following two consecutive drops. Volume, instead, shrunk by more than 19K contracts, clinching the second drop in a row.GBP/USD flirting with key resistance areaCable is moving further north at the beginning of the week, testing the key hurdle in the mid-1.2700s. Rising open interest allows for the continuation of the upside bias, although persistent declining volume could spark some correction/consolidation in the near term.

Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac, in his latest client note, moved the timing of the next Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate cut from August

Bill Evans, Chief Economist at Westpac, in his latest client note, moved the timing of the next Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate cut from August to July.Key Quotes:“We have decided to bring forward the timing of the next RBA rate cut from August to July. We are surprised that we have to do this, given that a pause between cuts might have allowed for a smoother transmission process but cannot deny the explicit signals provided in the Governor’s more recent speech. This includes: that it would “… be unrealistic to expect that lowering interest rates by ¼ of a percentage point will materially shift the path we look to be on”; that “the possibility of lower rates remains on the table”; and that it “is not unrealistic to expect a further reduction in the cash rate.” These are early days for interpreting this Governor’s language at a time when policy is active. However, based on our experience with other central bankers, this language is direct. As such, we now expect a cut in July that will substitute for the move we had originally expected in August. This will complete the two cuts we originally forecast on February 21 when markets were priced for only one cut by March 2020. The timing however is somewhat earlier than we anticipated back in February.”

Although sustained trading beyond 200-hour moving average (4H 200MA) portrays the GBP/USD pair’s strength, the quote is yet to clear 38.2% Fibo.

Overbought RSI on a short timeframe, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement challenge GBP/USD buyers.A successful break of 4H 200MA favors buyers targeting 1.2815.Although sustained trading beyond 200-hour moving average (4H 200MA) portrays the GBP/USD pair’s strength, the quote is yet to clear 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its May – June decline as it takes the rounds to 1.2750 while heading into the British market open on Monday. With the 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) mostly near overbought region, buyers need a strong push to clear the crucial resistance unless chances of witnessing a pullback to 4H 200MA level of 1.2720 can’t be denied. During the quote’s further declines below 1.2720, 6-day long ascending trend-line at 1.2694 should be watched carefully as the break of which could drag prices toward 1.2610-07 support-zone. On the flipside, pair sustained a break of the key Fibonacci retracement around 1.2763 level, also comprising the current month high, might not refrain from challenging May 21 high near 1.2815 in order to aim for 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2843 and 1.2900 round-figure resistance during further upside. GBP/USD 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added nearly 9.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday, reach

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added nearly 9.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday, reaching the second build in a row. On the other side, volume partially reversed the previous drop and gained around 11.3K contracts.EUR/USD now targets 1.1450, March topsEUR/USD keeps the up move well and sound and is seen testing he mid-1.1400s in the near term if the buying pressure remains unabated. Rising open interest supports this view, although choppy activity in volume could remove some tailwinds from the expected upside.

FX option expiries for June 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1270 709m 1.1325 679m 1.1395 692m

FX option expiries for June 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1270 709m 1.1325 679m  1.1395 692m  1.1400 802m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 106.00 400m 106.50 862m  107.00 372m  107.50 1.3bn  108.40 380m  108.50 371m  108.55 536m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6654 289m

The Danske Bank analysts mainly attribute the latest strength in Brent oil to broad-based US dollar weakness induced by the dovish Fed. But the escala

The Danske Bank analysts mainly attribute the latest strength in Brent oil to broad-based US dollar weakness induced by the dovish Fed. But the escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions also continue to underpin. Key Quotes: “The US is planning more sanctions against Iran in order to force the country back to the negotiating table and agree on a deal to ensure Iran never requires nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo will visit Saudi Arabia and the UAE to discuss a global coalition against Iran. Iran has already seen a sharp drop in oil production following the first round of US sanctions, which has tightened world oil supply. New sanctions are therefore likely to be felt primarily in Iran and to a lesser extent in the rest of the world. Brent is trading above USD65/bbl. However, we reckon this is more a function of the recent recovery in risk sentiment and weakening of the USD with the outlook for upcoming rate cuts in the US.”  

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, does not rule out some consolidation in USD/JPY around the 107.30 region. Key Quotes “USD

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, does not rule out some consolidation in USD/JPY around the 107.30 region.Key QuotesUSD/JPY last week sold off to the 61.8% retracement at 107.27 and it is possible that we will see some near term consolidation around this point (the daily RSI did not confirm last weeks low)”.Rallies will find solid resistance at the 20 day ma at 108.39, and the market stays immediately offered below the near term downtrend at 108.58. Our initial target of the 107.27 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, has easily been met and we look for losses to the 78.6% retracement at 105.87”. “Above the near term downtrend, minor resistance comes in at the 110.84 April 10 low and the 111.18 200 day moving average. These guard the 2015-2019 112.20 downtrend”.

The Iranian news outlet, Tasnim, reports the latest comment from the country’s Navy Commander, as he speaks about the US drone downed last week. He th

The Iranian news outlet, Tasnim, reports the latest comment from the country’s Navy Commander, as he speaks about the US drone downed last week. He threatened that the downing of the US drone in Gulf was a firm response and can be repeated.

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect EUR/USD to face significant resistance in the 1.1450 area in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We woefully u

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect EUR/USD to face significant resistance in the 1.1450 area in the near term.Key Quotes24-hour view: “We woefully underestimated EUR strength as instead of “edging above 1.1320”, it blew past this level and rocketed to 1.1377. While overbought, the rally has scope to extend above 1.1400. For today, the next major resistance at 1.1450 is not expected to come into the picture. On the downside, 1.1320 is deemed as strong enough to hold any intraday pullback (minor support is at 1.1345)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “While our expectation from last Friday (21 Jun, spot at 1.1290) that “EUR is likely to move into a ‘positive phase’ soon” was not wrong, the timeliness of the call could be ‘earlier’. EUR not only eclipsed several strong resistance levels with ease but also hit a 3-month high of 1.1377 before ending the week higher by a whopping 1.41% (NY close of 1.1366). The strong and impulsive rally suggests there is scope for the current ‘positive phase’ to extend further even though March’s peak near 1.1450 is expected to offer solid resistance. The ‘positive phase’ is deemed as intact until the 1.1275 ‘key support’ is taken out (level was a ‘strong support’ at 1.1220 last Friday)”.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), appears to have met quite decent support in the 96.00 region. US Dollar Index looks to G-20, dat

DXY meets strong support in the 96.00 neighbourhood.US 10-year yields slip back to the 2.05% handle.Chicago Fed Activity index next of relevance in the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), appears to have met quite decent support in the 96.00 region.US Dollar Index looks to G-20, dataThe index remains under heavy downside pressure at the beginning of the week, as markets participants continue to adjust to the recent dovish message from the FOMC and the idea of rate cuts as early as next month. On another direction, US-China trade concerns appear to have entered an impasse ahead of the G-20 meeting over the weekend in Japan, with the Trump-Xi meeting taking centre stage. Later in the US docket, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will be the main release seconded by the Dallas Fed Manufacturing gauge. The index charted a weekly bearish ‘outside candle’ last week, maybe anticipating some extra weakness in the short-term horizon. However, the extent of the selling bias in the buck remains to be seen. While the Fed joined the rest of its peers in the dovish train, the US economy is still outperforming its overseas rivals, which should end up lending some oxygen to the greenback.What to look for around USDThe Federal Reserve is not ‘patient’ anymore. The prospects of rate cuts have already emerged on the horizon, while an ‘insurance cut’ could come as early as July. Compared with other central banks, the Fed has more room to manoeuvre in case it goes ‘full accommodative’ in the next months (due to the hiking cycle that started in 2015). If we add that the US economy is healthier than its overseas peers, the greenback’s status of ‘global reserve currency’ and its safe haven appeal, further weakness in the buck is far from a done deal.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is advancing 0.07% at 96.17 and faces the next hurdle at 96.57 (200-day SMA) seconded by 97.39 (55-day SMA) and finally 97.77 (high Jun.18). On the downside, a break below 96.09 (low Jun.21) would open the door for 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28).

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Draghi is likely to announce a fresh easing policy as soon as this Sept

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Draghi is likely to announce a fresh easing policy as soon as this September before he ends his term as the ECB President in October. Key Quotes: “With only three ECB meetings to go it would be tempting to label Draghi a lame duck. He is far from that, and we now expect him to engineer another easing package at the September meeting. Rates still have some downside potential left. In light of the new signals from the ECB and our more negative stance on how the economy will develop in the second half of this year, we add more ECB stimulus to our baseline. We now expect another easing package announced at the September meeting, consisting of A 10bp cut in the deposit rate. EUR 30bn a month of net asset purchases, coupled with an increase of the issuer limit (for Euro-area governments) from 33% to 49%. Changed forward guidance: rates to remain at present levels or lower (and possibly dropping the date-based element and linking the state-based element more concretely to the inflation outlook). Even after the September meeting, we expect the ECB to retain a clear easing bias and be prepared for another easing package at the December meeting or later (another 10bp cut in the depo rate and lifting the pace of purchases to EUR 60bn a month). “

ANZ bank released latest research on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) positioning data for the week ended on June 18.

As per the ANZ bank’s latest research on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) positioning data for the week ended on June 18, leveraged funds turned overall net long JPY for the first time since mid-June 2018.  It was further mentioned that the Euro (EUR) funds and asset managers take opposite stances, the former cutting their net EUR shorts while the latter pared their net EUR longs whereas Commodity currencies say new buying by leveraged funds, but broad-based selling by asset managers.  Additionally, the report said that the US Dollar (USD) was heavily sold off by leveraged funds ahead of the FOMC meeting. Asset managers were largely broad-based net USD buyers. The bank cites the G20 Osaka summit on 28-29 June as the next major event risk which will drive further positioning changes.

According to the analysts at Danske Bank, the main market moving event for today is likely to be the German IFO Survey amid looming US-China trade unc

According to the analysts at Danske Bank, the main market moving event for today is likely to be the German IFO Survey amid looming US-China trade uncertainty. Key Quotes: “We start the week with the German Ifo index for June. After PMIs last week signalled further improvement in the German manufacturing sector, it will be interesting to see whether this message is also borne out in today's Ifo reading. In light of the trade war re-escalation, we see scope for further downside in the Ifo business expectations in the coming months. Near term, the economic outlook remains clouded by many external risks.”

Cautious optimism prevailed across the financial markets in Asia on Monday, following the weekend news that the US-China trade talks have kicked-off h

Cautious optimism prevailed across the financial markets in Asia on Monday, following the weekend news that the US-China trade talks have kicked-off heading into the Trump-XI meeting at the G20 Summit later this week. However, escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions kept the investors slightly unnerved while the US dollar continued to trade on the back foot across its main competitors, as Treasury yields lagged amid dovish Fed rate expectations. The top performer this session was the Australian dollar that jumped on the upbeat remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Lowe. The AUD/USD pair rallied 0.50% to reach fresh multi-day tops at 0.6961. Meanwhile, its OZ peer, the NZD/USD pair also followed suit and traded firmer around the 0.66 handle. The USD/JPY pair recovered from a dip to near 107.30 region amid firmer S&P 500 futures. But the further upside appeared capped near 107.50 amid a broadly weaker US dollar. The USD/CAD pair also suffered moderate losses on higher oil prices. Gold prices on Comex held onto last week’s gains and kept its range above the key 1400 level.Main Topics in AsiaTrade: United States should drop its win-at-all-costs mentality - People’s Daily/Reuters US to impose major new sanctions on Iran - Bloomberg Erdogan dealt stunning blow as Istanbul elects rival candidate - BBG Australian economists explore QE options - Bloomberg RBA's Governor Lowe: risks to global economy are tilted to downside RBA’s Lowe: Don't 'really understand' markets - AFR WTI clings to monthly top as geopolitics play their parts Gold technical analysis: 1433 comes as the Aug 2013 highs Chinese assistant foreign minister: G20 should ensure unity and cooperation PBOC's Deputy Governor: Some countries have limited room for monetary policy easing Chinese Vice CommerceMin: Hopes US can use spirit of free trade to remove unilateral measures on Chinese firms Asian stocks cautiously bid on US-Sino trade talks China’s CommerceMin: Discussions between Chinese and US trade teams are underway NZIER: RBNZ should keep rates on hold this week USD/IDR: Rupiah shrugs-off upbeat Indonesian trade dataKey Focus AheadWe have a quiet start to the G20 week ahead, with the macro calendar docket data-sparse this Monday. The German IFO survey will be released at 0800 GMT, which will be closely eyed, especially after a sharp deterioration in the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index. Meanwhile, all eyes will remain on the UK political scenario and US-China trade talks, in absence of fresh first-tier economic releases from both the UK and the US docket. However, the ECB-speak and a couple of US regional data will offer some trading impetus in the day ahead. EUR/USD trades above 200-day MA ahead of German IFO survey The path of least resistance is on the higher side and the pair will likely rise well above 1.14 later today if the German IFO survey for June, scheduled for release at 08:00 GMT, show signs of green shoots in the Eurozone's largest economy. GBP/USD: UK’s political plays can act as the key catalysts amid latest upswing Even if the US Dollar (USD) weakness has helped the GBP/USD pair to remain strong around 12-day high, the pair lacks fresh catalysts in order to extend its latest upswing heading into the UK open this Monday. The Week Ahead: Cutting to the Quick The most important data point for the eurozone next week is the flash CPI reading.  Unchanged data is the story.  Draghi was clear: if conditions do not improve, the ECB needs to provide more stimulus.  GBP/USD Forecast: Boris Johnson may unleash the bears after the Fed fed the bulls The economic calendar features a testimony by the BOE's Carney early in the week – where he is likely to repeat the messages, he conveyed in the rate statement.   

Japan Coincident Index came in at 102.1, above expectations (101.9) in April

Japan Leading Economic Index above expectations (95.5) in April: Actual (95.9)

Japan Leading Economic Index in line with expectations (95.5) in April

TD Securities recently released its report ahead of the European session on Monday expecting a small decline in the German IFO data.

TD Securities recently released its report ahead of the European session on Monday. The bank anticipated a small decline in the German IFO data with more downside coming from expectations as it says: We look for a small decline in the headline to 97.3 in June, with more downside coming from expectations as the expectations component of the PMI survey sank to a nearly 5-year low. As per the market consensus June month German IFO Business Climate could dip to 97.3 from 97.9 while the Expectations may soften to 94.5 from 95.3. As a result, the IFO Current Assessment is expected to come in at 100.00 versus 100.60.

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.9 above expectations (0.7) in May

With the AUD/USD pair running further up from 21-day moving average (21-DMA), buyers concentrate on near-term key resistances to justify the latest up-moves.

Aussie buyers cheer sustained trading beyond 21-DMA, aims for immediate resistance-line 50-day SMA.Gradually rising RSI, beneath overbought levels, favors break of the key upside barriers.With the AUD/USD pair running further up from 21-day moving average (21-DMA), buyers concentrate on near-term key resistances to justify the latest upside as the quote takes the rounds to 0.6960 during early Monday. Among the crucial upside barriers, a 9-week old descending trend-line, at 0.6966, becomes the closest resistance to watch ahead of 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6975. It should also be noted that 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is gradually rising and is not in the overbought region, which in turn supports buyers’ claim over the momentum. During the pair’s advances past-0.6975, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its January – June decline near 0.7010 and 100-day SMA level of 0.7042 should grab bulls’ attention. Alternatively, a sustained decline below the 21-DMA level of 0.6932 can recall 0.6900 and 0.6880 back to the chart. Also, the latest low surrounding 0.6830 and 0.6800 round-figure could entertain bears’ afterward. AUD/USD daily chartTrend: Bullish 

Amid ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, Iran is out with the latest headlines, citing that the reported US cyber-attacks have not been successful.

Amid ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions, Iran is out with the latest headlines, citing that the reported US cyber-attacks have not been successful. Nothing further is reported on the same. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks are trading firmer near multi-month tops, as the renewed US-China trade optimism underpin.

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.7%) in 1Q

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.5%) in 1Q

Even if the USD weakness has helped the GBP/USD pair to remain strong around 12-day high, the pair lacks fresh catalysts in order to extend its rise.

Market respects anti-USD momentum amid lack of fresh catalysts at home.Boris Johnson’s clarification of the home raw will be the key to watch.Second-tier US data may offer intermediate moves.Even if the US Dollar (USD) weakness has helped the GBP/USD pair to remain strong around 12-day high, the pair lacks fresh catalysts in order to extend its latest upswing as it seesaws near 1.2750 ahead of the UK open on Monday. Doubts over the US-China trade deal, a latest dovish appearance by the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran are some of the key reasons that could have pushed the anti-USD mode farther. At home, the latest pressure on the UK Prime Minister (PM) candidate Boris Johnson should have weighed down the British Pound (GBP) over political uncertainty. Leading British lawmakers, including another candidate for the UK PM’s race Jeremy Hunt, have stepped forward in demanding clarification of the likely tussle between Boris and his girlfriend that led police towards Mr. Johnson’s home during the after hours of a party. While ex-USD moves have dominated market sentiment off-late, how Mr. Johnson justifies the latest incident seems the key as he still needs to please 160K Tory voters to become the UK PM. At the economic calendar, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, respectively for May and June months, can gain short-term traders’ attention. The activity gauge from the Chicago Fed might flash -0.37 against -0.45 previous whereas the Dallas Fed index could recover to +4.8 from -5.3 earlier. Technical Analysis Unless clearly breaking the current month high surrounding 1.2763/65, the pair is less likely to avoid meeting 1.2700, 1.2660 and 1.2610 nearby supports. On the contrary, quote’s ability to cross 1.2765 enables it to aim for 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level near 1.2815 and then April month low near 1.2865.

According to the latest trade data published by the Indonesian Statistics Bureau, the country unexpectedly posted a trade surplus in May after two str

According to the latest trade data published by the Indonesian Statistics Bureau, the country unexpectedly posted a trade surplus in May after two straight months of trade deficit. Indonesia reported a trade surplus of $ -2.50 billion vs. $-1.38 billion expected and $-2.50 billion previous. The imports and exports came in at -17.71% and -8.99% respectively vs. -13.90% and -14.70% expectations and -6.80% and -12.90% respective priors. The median forecast from 11 economists in the poll was for a $1.38 billion trade shortfall last month, compared with a revised $2.44 billion deficit in April which was the widest gap Indonesia has ever seen, the Reuters poll showed last week. Upbeat trade report had little impact on the Indonesian Rupiah versus the US dollar, keeping the USD/IDR cross mostly unchanged near 14,155 levels. The recovery in the cross from two-month lows stalled at 14,170 before the data release. USD/IDR: Levels to Watch  

Indonesia Trade Balance above expectations ($-1.38B) in May: Actual ($0.21B)

Indonesia Imports came in at -17.71% below forecasts (-13.9%) in May

New Zealand’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson was on wires during early Monday conveying plans to introduce bank deposit protection plan.

New Zealand’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson was on wires during early Monday conveying plans to introduce bank deposit protection plan. Mr. Robertson says that government is likely to offer 30K New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 50K NZD plan to safeguard bank deposit. He also mentions the plan to review whether the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) bank supervisory regime is sufficiently strong.

EUR/USD is looking north ahead of key German data release, having closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) on Friday. The pair has found acceptanc

EUR/USD closed above the 200-day moving average on Friday. The pair is on the offensive with a bullish breakout on technical charts. Above-forecast German IFO surveys will likely bolster the bullish setup.EUR/USD is looking north ahead of key German data release, having closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) on Friday.  The pair has found acceptance above the long-term moving average for the first time since May 1. 2018, and the big break is supported by bullish higher lows, higher highs pattern and inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on the daily chart.  Therefore, the path of least resistance is on the higher side and the pair will likely rise well above 1.14 later today if the German IFO surveys for June, scheduled for release at 08:00 GMT, show signs of green shoots in the Eurozone's largest economy. The IFO expectations index is seen falling to 94.5 in June from 95.3 last month. Further, both the business climate and current assessment indices are expected to show a mild deterioration.  Weak data may not result in EUR weakness. This is because the deterioration in the German economic and business sentiment is generally accepted and priced in by now. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey plummeted to a lower-than-forecast -21.1 in June from -2.1 in May, the data released a week ago showed.  Further, Euribor futures fell on Friday following the release of the above-forecast German and French June manufacturing PMIs, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Friday's below-forecast US PMIs likely reinforced the dovish Fed expectations.  As a result, the probability of the EUR extending the ongoing rally is high. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1382, having hit a high of 1.1386 – a level last seen on March 22. The bullish case would weaken if the pair find acceptance below the former resistance-turned-support of 1.1348. Technical levels 

Indonesia Exports above forecasts (-14.7%) in May: Actual (-8.99%)

Oversold levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) played its role in fetching the USD/JPY pair upwards towards near-term important resistance.

USD/JPY’s pullback from 23.6% Fibonacci retracement needs to clear 107.77/81 horizontal-resistance.Oversold RSI favors the pair’s rise to 21-DMA if it manages to clear immediate upside barrier.While oversold levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) might have played its role in fetching the USD/JPY pair upwards, the quote still needs to clear nearby horizontal-resistance in order to justify its strength as it takes the rounds to 107.37 during early Monday. An area comprising lows of January 10 and June 05 questions the pair’s latest uptick targeting 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 108.44. Should oversold RSI manages to propel prices beyond 108.44, current month top surrounding 108.80 and May month low near 109.01 can entertain buyers. Meanwhile, pair’s decline below 107.06 comprising 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2018 to January 2019 decline can drag it to a descending trend-line stretched since early April, at 106.64. It should also be noted that pair’s extended south-run past-106.64 may avail 106.00 and 105.00 round-figures as intermediate halts before revisiting the yearly low near 104.75. USD/JPY daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Turkish Lira has opened the week on a higher note as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party lost Instanbul's Mayoral elections for a second tim

Turkey's Lira hits 2.5-week high against the US Dollar. President Erdogan's party loses Istanbul elections. Turkish Lira has opened the week on a higher note as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling party lost Instanbul's Mayoral elections for a second time Sunday.  The USD/TRY pair is currently trading at 5.7622, representing 0.83 percent losses on the day, having clocked a low of 5.7247 earlier today. That was the lowest level since June 6.  The opposition leader Imamoglu's victory means Turkey's largest city won't be ruled by Erdogan’s party or its predecessor for the first time in 25 years.  Imamoglu's win is seen putting an end to months of political uncertainty that had weighed on the currency and put the focus back on reviving the economy with reforms. It is worth noting that Lira is still down 9 percent on a year-to-date basis and is one of the worst performing emerging market currencies. Key levelsResistance: 5.8383 (Friday's high), 5.9208 (50-day moving average) Support: 5.7247 (Asian session low), 5.6783 (100-day moving average)      

At the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate meeting this week, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) 'Shadow Board' recommend

At the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cash rate meeting this week, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) 'Shadow Board' recommends that the central bank should leave the OCR on hold following a rate cut in the previous meeting.Key Points:Participants show where they think interest rates should be, not what they believe will happen. Some data has suggested economic activity slowed over the first half of 2019. there are mixed views on the efficacy of any further easing in monetary policy. The Kiwi remains well bid around the 0.69 handle amid US-Sino trade optimism and higher commodities’ prices, as markets ignore below forecasts NZ credit card spending data for the month of May.

With the Crude prices trading near the monthly top and the US Dollar (USD) continues to linger across the board, the USD/CAD pair resumes its latest downturn.

Bears dominate the USD/CAD moves amid WTI strength, anti-USD moves.Sustained trading below key MA portrays the pair’s weakness.With the Crude prices trading near the monthly top and the US Dollar (USD) continues to linger across the board, the USD/CAD pair resumes its latest downturn clock in 1.3191 during early Monday. WTI, the global benchmark for crude oil, rallies to the month’s high after the Bloomberg news report that the US President Donald Trump stands ready to announce fresh sanction on Iran. While the increase in prices of the key export item, i.e. Crude, plays a major part in the pair’s latest declines, the market’s anti-USD mode also lured sellers towards the pair. Additionally, comments from Chinese lawmakers rekindled expectations of positive trade talks between the US and China at the sidelines of the G20. Given the greenback weakness diverts the buyers towards commodity-linked currencies, coupled with a lack of data, traders might be more interested in political plays surrounding the US in order to determine near-term market sentiment. Technical Analysis Pair’s sustained trading below June 10 low near 1.3242 continues to signal brighter chances of its further declines to 1.3150 and then to late-February bottom surrounding 1.3110. On the upside break of 1.3242, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3283 can question buyers.

GBP/USD is trading on a positive note for the fifth straight day and is on track to test resistance at 1.2763 (June 7 high). A daily close above that

GBP/USD is flashing green for fifth consecutive day. A close above 1.2763 would invalidate bearish lower highs pattern. The 14-day RSI is biased bullish. GBP/USD is trading on a positive note for the fifth straight day and is on track to test resistance at 1.2763 (June 7 high).  A daily close above that level would invalidate bearish lower highs pattern and validate the bearish-to-bullish trend change signaled by pair’s recovery from 1.2506 to current rate of 1.2754, bullish crossover of the 5- and 10-day moving averages and 14-day relative strength index’s (RSIs) move above 50.00.  A bullish close, if confirmed, would open the doors to former support-turned-resistance of 1.2866 (April 25 low). On the way higher, the pair may face resistance at the descending (bearish) 50-day moving average, currently at 1.2813.  The bullish case would weaken if the pair violates the bullish higher lows pattern on the hourly chart with a move below 1.2642.  Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points   

Fresh comments are out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry, as it speaks about the US-China trade talks ahead of the G20 meeting. Discussions between C

Fresh comments are out from the Chinese Commerce Ministry, as it speaks about the US-China trade talks ahead of the G20 meeting. Discussions between Chinese and US trade teams are underway. Both teams are making preparations for the Xi-Trump meeting. China and US should be willing to make compromises in trade talks and not insist only on what each side wants.

Asian stocks are reporting moderate gains this Monday morning in Asia, possibly on renewed optimism that Sino-US trade talks will progress at G-20. As

Asian stocks are flashing green, possibly on Sino-US trade talks.Trade negotiations unlikely to end with breakthrough deal.Asian stocks are reporting moderate gains this Monday morning in Asia, possibly on renewed optimism that Sino-US trade talks will progress at G-20. As of writing, Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.10% at 21,265 and the Shanghai Composite index is reporting 0.15% gains at 3,006. Stocks in New Zealand, South Korea are also flashing green, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.18% at 6,637. Meanwhile, the futures on the S&P 500 are up 7 points or 0.27% at 2,958. A telephone call between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi last week and the confirmation that the two parties will meet in Japan on the sidelines of a Group 20 summit seems too have rekindled hopes of a trade deal. The odds of a trade deal, however, are quite low as noted by CNBC’s Jim Cramer last week. Moreover, tensions have extended beyond tariffs in the last few weeks with Washington putting Huawei – China’s biggest telecoms gear maker – on a blacklist. Further, the Global Times newspaper reported on Sunday that FedEx Corp could be added to Beijing’s unreliable entities list. As a result, the upside in Asian equities looks limited. At the same time, he dovish Federal Reserve expectations could cushion the impact of further escalation trade tensions, if any. The US central bank kept key rates unchanged last week, but removed the word “patience” from its forward guidance on interest rates, setting the stage for a rate cut later this year.

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) offers key comments delivered by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe earlier today, highlighting s

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) offers key comments delivered by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe earlier today, highlighting some dissonance noted by him. Key Quotes: "There are investors who think the outlook is sufficiently weak that they expect central banks right around the world to cut interest rates but they are not worried about corporate profits or credit risk." "I don't really understand that." “If you look at equity markets, they are very strong but credit spreads are narrow. So, to me it's a strange world."  

More comments are crossing the wires from the Chinese Vice Commerce Minister has been crossing the wires, as we head towards the G20 Summit over this

More comments are crossing the wires from the Chinese Vice Commerce Minister has been crossing the wires, as we head towards the G20 Summit over this weekend. WTO faces many, deep rooted challenges. China supports normal operations and reforms of WTO. China hopes G20 summit to send clear signals on fighting against trade protectionism. Hopes US can use spirit of free trade to remove unilateral measures on Chinese firms.

Like all other major currency pairs, GBP/USD also benefits from the greenback’s across the board declines as it takes the rounds to 1.2748 during early Monday.

Doubts over a trade deal with China, geopolitical tension with Iran drags the USD down.Lack of data emphasizes politics as the key driver.Boris Johnson continues to be under pressure over home raw.Like all other major currency pairs, GBP/USD also benefits from the greenback’s across the board declines as it takes the rounds to 1.2748 during early Monday. The cable rises to the 12-day top as buyers go further away from the US Dollar (USD) amid the US trade tension with China and political tussle with Iran. Chinese media continues to criticize the US-led trade protectionism whereas China’s Assistant Foreign Minister recently cited possibilities of candid and constructive talks at the G20. The said meeting of global leaders are gaining importance off-late as Presidents of the US and China are likely to restart their trade talks at the sidelines of the venue. Other than trade uncertainties, the US President’s threat to levy fresh sanction on Iran, as conveyed by the Bloomberg, also weighed on the greenback. Elsewhere, hardships for the Prime Minister candidate Boris Johnson is grabbing the spotlight as some of the key British politicians, including his rival Jeremy Hunt, have started demanding clarification of the latest incident at his home where police needed to intervene. Looking forward, the economic calendar seems quite empty except for few second-tier US activity data which in turn highlights political plays to become the key driver for the markets. Technical Analysis While current-month high near 1.2763 can challenge the pair’s immediate upside, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level near 1.2815 attracts short-term buyers’ eye-share ahead of highlighting April month low near 1.2865. On the downside, 1.2700, 1.2660 and 1.2610 are likely nearby supports that the sellers can target during the quote’s pullback ahead of aiming month’s low near 1.2506.

USD/CNH is reporting moderate gains this Monday morning in Asia, having created a Doji candle on Friday. That candle is widely considered a sign of in

USD/CNH neutralized bearish outlook with a Doji candle on Friday. A close above 6.8797 is needed to confirm a bull reversal. USD/CNH is reporting moderate gains this Monday morning in Asia, having created a Doji candle on Friday.  That candle is widely considered a sign of indecision in the market place. Notably, Doji candle was created at the key support of 6.8527, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 6.6757/6.9618 and following a drop from 6.9618.  So, Doji could be considered a sign of seller exhaustion. The immediate bearish outlook, therefore, stands neutralized. A close above 6.8797 today would confirm bullish Doji reversal.  On the downside, a daily close below 6.8527 would signal a resumption of the sell-off from the recent high of 6.9618.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish above 6.8797Pivot levels 

While global economic uncertainty is rising, some countries have a limited room for monetary policy easing to counter economic slowdown, People's Bank

While global economic uncertainty is rising, some countries have a limited room for monetary policy easing to counter economic slowdown, People's Bank of China's Deputy Governor Chen Yulu reportedly said on Monday.  The policy maker added further that G20 must strengthen policy coordination.     

With the G20 now the main event around the corner, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister has been crossing the wires: G20 will have candid and constructive d

With the G20 now the main event around the corner, Chinese Vice Commerce Minister has been crossing the wires: G20 will have candid and constructive discussions. The global economy is facing severe challenges.  Tariffs by certain countries are a threat to the world economy. AUD/USD trades as a proxy to the trade war noise, benefitting on prospects of progress towards a solution. On the flipside, dwindling chances of a deal will weigh on the Aussie. AUD/USD Analysis: upside limited but short-term gains possible 

With the monthly trade balance data on the radar, USD/IDR clings to 14,162 amid initial Asian session on Monday.

USD/IDR players turn cautious ahead of monthly trade balance data.Gradually recovery towards 100-day SMA can be noticed.With the monthly trade balance data on the radar, USD/IDR clings to 14,162 amid initial Asian session on Monday. The Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hold its monetary policy unchanged and Reuters’ report of the central bank “allowing” the currency to strength helped the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) during last week. Adding to the pair’s downside could be across the board weakness of the US Dollar (USD) after the US Federal Reserve turned dovish in its latest monetary policy meeting. May month trade data from Indonesia, up for release around 04:00 GMT, is expected to portray $-1.38 billion of trade balance compared to $-2.50 billion previous. The imports and exports are likely to come in -13.90% and -14.70% versus -6.58% and -13.10% respective priors. Technical Analysis Unless clearing 100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 14,205 on a daily closing basis, chances of the quote’s pullback to recent low of 14,080 and then to 14,000 round-figure can’t be denied. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 14,205 opens the door for the pair’s another attention to challenge 200-day SMA level of 14,424 with 14,340 likely being an intermediate halt during the advances.

With the G20 now the main event around the corner, Chinese assistant foreign minister has been crossing the wires: The global economy is facing rising

With the G20 now the main event around the corner, Chinese assistant foreign minister has been crossing the wires: The global economy is facing rising risks. G20 should ensure unity and cooperation. We will safeguard own fundamental interests. AUD/USD trades as a proxy to the trade war noise, benefitting on prospects of progress towards a solution. On the flipside, dwindling chances of a deal will weigh on the Aussie. AUD/USD Analysis: upside limited but short-term gains possible 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8503 vs Friday's fix of 6.8675.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8503 vs Friday's fix of 6.8675. 

The Chiaxin Oscillator crossed above the zero line on the 30th May when price ran higher from 1375. However, the price of gold has now left a mixed o

 The Chiaxin Oscillator crossed above the zero line on the 30th May when price ran higher from 1375. However, the price of gold has now left a mixed outlook on the charts. The momentum indicators are also mixed, reading in overbought territory. 1372 now comes in as a 50% mean reversion target on the downside of the weekly candlestick. On the upside, 1433 comes as the next target as the 2013 August highs 
 

The EUR/USD pair closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) on Friday – the first daily close above the long-term moving average in over 13 months –

EUR/USD confirmed bullish trend with a close above 200-day MA on Friday. The daily chart shows a bullish higher low, higher high pattern. Friday's close also confirmed an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout. The EUR/USD pair closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) on Friday – the first daily close above the long-term moving average in over 13 months – confirming a bullish breakout. After all, the 200-day MA is widely considered a barometer of the bull/bear market.  Further, the pair closed well above the June 7 high of 1.1348 on Friday, confirming a bullish higher low, higher high pattern and an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.  As a result, the path of least resistance is now on the higher side and the pair could challenge the March 20 high of 1.1448 this week. A break higher would expose 1.1514 (Jan. 31 high). It is worth noting that the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout has opened the doors to 1.16 (target as per the measured move method).  A close below 1.1348 would neutralize the immediate bullish outlook. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1381, the highest level since March 22. Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points 

GBP/JPY breaks 200-HMA but is yet to cross 12-day long resistance-line as it takes the rounds to 136.85 during early Monday.

GBP/JPY breaks 200-HMA but immediate trend-line resistance limits the upside.A successful break can propel the quote to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement whereas 100-HMA acts as nearby important support.GBP/JPY breaks 200-HMA but is yet to cross 12-day long resistance-line as it takes the rounds to 136.85 during early Monday. Should the pair successfully clears 136.90 trend-line barrier, it can quickly rise to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of mid-month declines, at 137.19. During the quote’s further upside past-137.19, June 13 top around 137.80 becomes the key for buyers as a break of which could escalate the up-moves to 138.00 and June 11 high near 138.33. Alternatively, pair’s slip beneath 200-hour moving average (HMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement confluence close to 136.80 highlights 136.36 as next major support comprising 100-HMA. If sellers refrain from respecting 136.36, immediate upward sloping trend-line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 136.00 can question the bears, if not then 135.80 and month’s low at 135.37 may please them. GBP/JPY hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected 

By September, the European Central Bank (ECB) will pacify doves either by cutting its deposit rate or by pledging to keep the interest rates lower for

By September, the European Central Bank (ECB) will pacify doves either by cutting its deposit rate or by pledging to keep the interest rates lower for longer, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Over 80% of 45 economists said the central bank would either cut its deposit rate further and have a tiered system with conditions attached or tweak forward guidance by removing any reference to future rate hikes, while others expected the ECB to restart its quantitative easing program (QE).  Of those expecting easing, about one-third expect it to happen as early as next month and 80 percent forecasted to come before September.  ECB President Mario Draghi in a speech last Tuesday put rate cuts back on the table. The central bank last reduced the deposit rate to -0.4% and the refinancing rate to zero in March 2016.       

In a tight range to start the week, USD/JPY is flat around 107.30 in Tokyo, up from 107.05 from Friday's business but below 107.75 highs. The yen has

The yen has picked up a safe haven bid, fundamentally offered on the Federal Reserve.  107.27 61.8% Fibonacci taken out, eyes on 105.87.In a tight range to start the week, USD/JPY is flat around 107.30 in Tokyo, up from 107.05 from Friday's business but below 107.75 highs. The yen has picked up a safe haven bid and flows out of the greenback following a switch to a new easing bias at the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the pair under pressure. Stock markets were also on the back foot on Friday, weighing on the pair following a disappointment in US data. The Markit US composite PMI came in slightly below the previous read (at 50.6 from 50.9 in May), whilst the manufacturing index eased to 50.1 (from 50.5 in the month prior). "Within the manufacturing data however, new orders increased by 1.1pts to 50.8 and new export orders rose 1.5pts to 50. Those forward leading indicators suggest that manufacturing might stabilise a bit near-term, despite ongoing trade uncertainties. While, the services index also fell, all sub-components were up. The output price index rose to 51.5, while input prices rose to 52.8," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  Fed chat Meanwhile, Fed governor Brainard said that downside risks argue for a softening in the rate path. Minneapolis Fed president Kashkari admitted he dissented in favour of a 50bp rate cut at last week’s on-hold decision (as a non-voter, his name was not in the statement). St. Louis Fed president Bullard said his (known) dissent was in favour of a 25bp ‘insurance’ cut. Meanwhile, markets are pricing 32bp of easing at the July meeting, with a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020. On Friday, U.S. 10yr treasury yields climbed from 2.00% to 2.07%.  2yr yields remained heavy, ranging between 1.75% and 1.80%.  USD/JPY levels Analysts at Commerzbank explained that USD/JPY is under pressure and in 5 month lows: "Following its rejection from the 20 day ma at 108.48, the market stays immediately offered below the near term downtrend at 108.67. Our initial target of the 107.27 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, has easily been surpassed and we look for losses to the 78.6% retracement at 105.87. Above the near term downtrend, minor resistance comes in at the 110.84 April 10 low and the 111.18 200 day moving average. These guard the 2015-2019 112.20 downtrend."
 

The bid tone around the Australian Dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY cross higher to the 20-hour moving average (MA) of 74.64 after the Reserve

RBA's Lowe questions the efficacy of easy monetary policy. AUD/JPY jumps to 200-hour moving average hurdle. Lowe also voices global growth concerns. The bid tone around the Australian Dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY cross higher to the 20-hour moving average (MA) of 74.64 after the Reserve Bank of Australian Governor Lowe questioned the efficacy of further monetary easing.  Lowe said the accomodative monetary policy would not work if everyone is easing, offsetting the positive effect of weaker exchange rates. Lowe's comments come at a time when the markets are priced in for 50 basis point rate cut before the year-end. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.25% earlier this month.  Also, other major central banks have turned dovish over the last few weeks. Notably, the European Central Bank President Draghi said last week that more rate cuts could be delivered if required and the US Federal Reserve removed the word "patience" from its forward guidance, setting the stage for a rate cut later this year.  While Lowe's comments on easing are AUD-positive, the gains could be capped around the 200-hour MA of 74.64 on growth concerns. Lowe acknowledged global growth risks in his speech today and called for increased infrastructure spending by the Australian government.  Further, tensions between the US and Iran and the ongoing US-China trade war could keep the gains under check. Pivot levels 

The RBA Governor’s expectations of the likely increase in infrastructure to benefit Australian economy helped the AUD/USD pair as it rises to the 12-day high.

RBA’s Lowe spread Aussie positive comments despite citing global growth risks.Lack of data may highlight political plays as main drivers.50-day SMA seems immediate resistance to watch during the quote’s additional upside.Even after continues to highlighting global growth risks and rate cut forecasts, the RBA Governor’s expectations of the likely increase in infrastructure to benefit Australian economy helped the AUD/USD pair as it rises to the 12-day high of 0.6950 during early Monday. While the sustained weakness of the US Dollar (USD) helped the Aussie to carry its previous strength forward, recent comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe helped the quote rise further. RBA’s Lowe cited downside risks to the global economic outlook but also said that the macro growth is still reasonable. He also mentioned that markets are pricing in rate cuts in major economies but refrained from providing any hints for the RBA’s future policy moves while speaking at the Australian National University Leadership Forum, in Canberra. Investors put a higher emphasis on his comments that low rates elsewhere can help the government borrow at exotic lows, which in turn can create more infrastructure investment that would benefit the Australian economy. It should also be noted that Aussie buyers showed little attention to the US-China trade tussles and the threat-like headlines from Chinese dailies. Investors may now focus on political plays surrounding the global trade together with USD direction for fresh impulse due to lack of major data left for publishing. Technical Analysis 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6970 and 0.7000 mark seem next on the buyers’ radar whereas a downside break below 21-day SMA level of 0.6930 can recall 0.6900 and 0.6860 back to the chart.

With the political tension between the US and Iran providing enough entertainment to the energy traders, WTI takes the bids around $57.75 during early Monday.

Iran’s political tussle with the US indicates an immediate supply-crunch threat.The OPEC+ group’s likely extension to output limiting agreement and recent inventory data also please WTI bulls.With the political tension between the US and Iran providing enough entertainment to the energy traders, WTI takes the bids around $57.75 during early Monday. As per the Bloomberg report, the US President Donald Trump said that he will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday. President Trump abruptly called off strikes on Iran during last-week after the later shot down one of the former’s drone and complained the United Nations (UN) that they have witnessed unmanned US aircraft moving around their space. The new sanctions might have emphasized on the recent statement from Iran that points to the nation’s desire to increase its nuclear arsenal. Elsewhere, latest statements from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Khalid A. Al-Falih indicate that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) led alliance, generally known as OPEC+, is planning to extend the global output supply cut accord. Further, last week's oil stock reports concerning the US has been positive to the prices whereas investors seem to have given little importance to the increase of 1 rig as conveyed by the Baker Hughes US oil rig counts. Weighing on the quote could be the US-China trade tension that continues to challenge future energy demand. Looking forward, news/developments surrounding politics can play an important part while directing near-term oil moves. Technical Analysis FXStreet Analyst, Ross J Burland, says that the energy benchmark is en-route for the 200-D EMA around $58.80: WTI was capped at the weekly 20-Experiential Moving Average. Bulls ran higher through the 20-D EMA and topped the 50-D EMA. Bulls are on track for the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, (EMA), and 4-hour 200 EMA. A break there will expose the 30th May highs of $59.67 and of course the $60 psychological level. On the downside, the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo come into focus that guard prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44.

EUR/JPY’s successful break of 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA) currently enables the pair to clock in the highest levels in 10-days on early Monday.

A sustained break of 4H 100MA favors the EUR/JPY pair’s run-up towards 4H 200M and 7-week old descending trend-line.Month’s low near 120.78 acts as strong downside support.EUR/JPY’s successful break of 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA) currently enables the pair to clock in the highest levels in 10-day as it trades near 122.21 during early Monday. The 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) at 122.33 seems the closest upside resistances that holds the key to the pair’s further advances towards the 7-week old descending trend-line, at 122.61 now. Should prices rally past-122.61 resistance-line, 50% Fibonacci retracement of May – June downpour near 123.00 and late-May month tops surrounding 123.75 could flash on buyers’ radar. Alternatively, a downside break of 4H 100MA level of 121.91 can expose the pair towards 121.60 and then to 121.00. However, month’s low near 120.78 can limit the quote’s additional declines, if not then 120.00 and January’s flash crash bottom near 118.70 can come back to the chart. EUR/JPY 4-Hour chartTrend: Bullish  

Following last week's 'The Labour Market and Spare Capacity' speech, RBA's Governor says today, 'risks to global economy are tilted to downside'. More

Following last week's 'The Labour Market and Spare Capacity' speech, RBA's Governor says today, 'risks to global economy are tilted to downside'. More to come...     About RBA's Governor Lowe  Philip Lowe replaced Glenn Stevens as governor of Australia’s central bank. Lowe was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position he held since February 2012.

WTI was capped at the weekly 20-Experiential Moving Average. Bulls ran higher through the 20-D EMA and topped the 50-D EMA. Bulls are on track for the

WTI is en-route for the 200-D EMA around 58.80If price can't sustain a bid, bears can target back down to the 200 weekly EMA.WTI was capped at the weekly 20-Experiential Moving Average. Bulls ran higher through the 20-D EMA and topped the 50-D EMA. Bulls are on track for the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, (EMA), and 4-hour 200 EMA. A break there will expose the 30th May highs of $59.67 and of course the $60 psychological level. On the downside, the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo come into focus that guard prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44.        

Gradual recoveries from 74.20 help the AUD/JPY pair on early Monday but short-term symmetrical triangle and 200-HMA can play their parts soon.

Upper-line of the short-term symmetrical triangle and 200-HMA can keep exerting downside pressure on the AUD/JPY pair.Break of 73.92 can recall 2016 low on the bears’ radar.Gradual recoveries from 74.20 help the AUD/JPY pair to take the bids near 74.45 during early Monday. However, short-term symmetrical triangle and 200-HMA can confine the pair’s immediate moves. While the technical pattern’s resistance near 74.60 acts as the closest upside barrier, 200-hour moving average (HMA) around 74.66 may challenge the pair’s advances post-breakout. In a case where the quote rallies beyond 74.66, June 17 high at 74.80 and the top of June 13 near 75.00 could become buyers’ favorites. On the contrary, the downside break of formation support, near 74.20, opens the door for a fresh decline towards the month’s low near 73.92. Additionally, pair’s extended south-run below 73.92 might not refrain from pleasing bears with 2016 bottom surrounding 72.40. AUD/JPY hourly chartTrend: Sideways  

The US and China continue to remain at loggerheads but the AUD/USD pair seems to show less attention to the stalemate as it takes the rounds to 0.6935.

Aussie buyers show less attention to the US-China trade tussles ahead of a speech from the RBA’s Lowe.Broad USD weakness continues to play positive for commodity-linked currencies.The US and China continue to remain at loggerheads but the AUD/USD pair seems to show less attention to the stalemate as it takes the rounds to 0.6935 amid initial Asian session on Monday. Traders now await a speech from the RBA’s Governor for fresh impulse. The Aussie pair benefited from the US Dollar’s (USD) broad weakness during last-week while showing less attention to the differences between the world’s two largest economies that indicates a major economic threat. The reason could be the US Federal Reserve’s dovish appearance and market rush towards the risk-off. Recent headlines on the trade front are negative, which in turn highlights the risk of another failed talks between the US and China when they meet at the sidelines of the G20. China’s Global Times signaled that the dragon nation will put the US-based leading courier delivery service company FedEx on its ‘unreliable entities list’ whereas Bloomberg came out with the report quoting Chinese state media as saying that China would fight trade war to the end. Moving on, speech from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe will gain major market attention from the Aussie traders. In his latest appearance, Mr. Lowe cemented expectations of another rate cut from the Australian central bank. Technical Analysis A sustained break of May 31 high around 0.6945 becomes necessary for the pair to aim for 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6970 and 0.7000 mark afterward, failing to which can drag the quote back to 0.6900 and then to 0.6860 support levels.

An article by Bloomberg news said the prospect of interest rates going below 1% has prompted Australia’s economists to start exploring what much of th

An article by Bloomberg news said the prospect of interest rates going below 1% has prompted Australia’s economists to start exploring what much of the developed world has already contended with: the introduction of unconventional monetary policy. While the Reserve Bank is unlikely to embark on quantitative easing for now simply to accelerate inflation and support hiring, a consensus is forming about when it would. Should a serious shock occur -- most likely from offshore and probably China -- that drives up the jobless rate and threatens recession, the central bank will then need to look elsewhere for ammunition. FX implications "A lower AUD and tax cuts will provide the boost the economy needs to get back onto a growth path that will push the unemployment rate lower over 2020", analysts at ANZ Bank argued. AUD/USD Analysis: upside limited but short-term gains possible 

Although Turkish President is likely witnessing embarrassment due to the latest results for the Istanbul’s Mayor’s election, the USD/TRY drops on early Monday.

USD/TRY bears concentrate more on the greenback’s weakness than likely challenges to the Turkish PM.Turkey’s opposition party candidate again won the Istanbul Mayor’s race after being rejected by the President during the earlier vote.Sellers emphasize the President’s indirect threat to the opposition candidate.Although Turkish President is likely witnessing embarrassment due to the latest results for the Istanbul’s Mayor’s election, the USD/TRY drops to revisit the last week’s low by testing 5.7312 before clocking in 5.7433 during early Monday. The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan previously rejected the results of Istanbul’s mayor’s race as opposition party candidate Ekrem Imamoglu won. However, the re-do of the election gave additional disappointment to the national leader as the previously chosen candidate gained extra votes than the earlier round. While this should have fuelled the USD/TRY pair, likely challenges to the opposition party candidate continue to portray the power President Erdogan could exert on the decision as Bloomberg reports that he suggested Imamoglu might be tried for allegedly insulting a provincial Governor, and a prison sentence could lead to his ouster. Technical Analysis 50% Fibonacci retracement of February – May upside and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) confluence around 5.6990 – 5.6892 can act as near-term strong support for the pair, a break of which may recall 5.6600 on the chart. Meanwhile, 5.7870 may limit the pair’s immediate upside ahead of fueling it towards 21-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area of 5.8266 to 5.8307.

Bloomberg has reported that President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran on Monday. President Donald Trump said the U.

Bloomberg has reported that President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran on Monday. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose major new sanctions on Iran Monday. days after he abruptly called off a plan for airstrikes against the Islamic Republic after Iran shot down a U.S. Navy drone. The sanctions move, announced on Twitter with no additional detail, came as Trump spent the day at the Camp David presidential retreat having meetings and phone calls. The president foreshadowed the sanctions action earlier, in remarks at the White House. FX implications The safe-havens, such as CHF, Yen and gold, will likely find support on such geopolitical risk. Gold regains positive traction, bulls eyeing a sustained move beyond $1400 mark 

Reuters has reported that the official People’s Daily said in an editorial on Saturday, that instead of waging a trade war with China, the United Stat

Reuters has reported that the official People’s Daily said in an editorial on Saturday, that instead of waging a trade war with China, the United States should drop its win-at-all-costs mentality and consider the interests of its own people as well as the global community,  The Chinese Communist Party’s newspaper urged the United States to cancel all tariffs on Chinese goods, saying the only way to resolve trade issues was through “equal dialogue”. Hopes that the two sides can rekindle negotiations were raised in the run-up to a meeting next week between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in Japan, where they will both attend a Group of 20 summit. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is holding seven days of hearings from manufacturers and other businesses likely to be affected by a new round of tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. The People’s Daily said all previous hearings had shown “overwhelming” opposition to tariff increases from all walks of life, but it had made no difference. “It seems that some people in the United States are waving the tariff stick in order to strengthen their so-called ‘industrial competitive advantage’,” it said.  - the article read.      

Despite witnessing dearth of catalysts for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the NZD/USD pair holds its strength as it confronts the 50-day SMA on early Monday.

The Kiwi pair continues to take advantage of the US Dollar (USD) weakness.The US-China trade stalemate holds the spotlight.New Zealand Credit Card Spending could offer fresh impulse but major attention will be given to Wednesday’s RBNZ.Despite witnessing dearth of catalysts for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the NZD/USD pair holds its strength as it confronts the 50-day SMA level of 0.6591 at the start of the week’s Asian trading session on Monday. The Kiwi pair managed to take advantage of the USD’s worst week in a year while on and off signals concerning the trade negotiations between the US and China seemed to have grabbed less attention from the Antipodeans buyers. The greenback couldn’t avoid the bears after the US Federal Reserve finally appreciated rate cut expectations. Additionally, following second-tier data and risk-off moves also played their parts to drag the currency downwards. Recently, China’s Global Times reported that FedEx, one of the leading US firm, is likely to be added to China’s ‘unreliable entities list’. This should have negatively affected the Kiwi pair as the dragon nation is risking trade negotiation with the US, which in turn can have an adverse impact on the commodity front due to the nation’s status of world’s largest industrial player. However, Kiwi bulls seem in no mood to buy the news. Moving on, May month Credit Card Spending from New Zealand is likely an immediate directive for the pair trades. The early signal for economic activity is expected to have grown by 5.4% versus 4.5% prior on YoY basis. On the other hand, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June can also entertain momentum traders. While the activity gauge from the Chicago Fed is expected to come in as -0.37 against -0.45 previous, the Dallas Fed index could recover to +4.8 from -5.3 earlier. It should, however, be noted that Wednesday’s monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) becomes the main catalyst for the pair. Technical Analysis Buyers can look for a sustained break of latest high around 0.6606 in order to challenge the current month top surrounding 0.6682. Though, a downside break of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), at 0.6588 now, can recall 0.6510 and 0.6480 back to the chart.

Bloomberg has reported on the Turkish opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, winning the redo of the Istanbul mayor’s race by a landslide on Sunday. Tu

Ekrem Imamoglu wins the redo of the Istanbul mayor’s race by a landslide.Imamoglu took 54% of vote, AK party’s Yildirim won 45%: AA.Opposition gets more votes than Erdogan ever did in Istanbul.Bloomberg has reported on the Turkish opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, winning the redo of the Istanbul mayor’s race by a landslide on Sunday. Turkish opposition candidate Ekrem Imamoglu won the redo of the Istanbul mayor’s race by a landslide on Sunday, in a stinging indictment of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic policies and his refusal to accept an earlier defeat. Imamoglu, backed by opposition parties including CHP, won 54% of the vote, and the ruling AK Party’s candidate, former Prime Minister Binali Yildirim captured 45%, according to state media. The political upstart broadened his margin of victory to nearly 800,000 votes from 14,000 in the March 31 balloting, in a clear sign voters are concerned about the crumbling of Turkey’s democratic foundations and an economy reeling from a spike in consumer prices and unemployment. the Bloomberg article reported.  Subsequently, USD/TRY has dropped the June lows and has fallen just shy of the 78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2019 range.         

विदेशी मुद्रा समाचार समयरेखा

Scroll Top