Avvertenza di rischio: Il trading è rischioso. Il tuo capitale è a rischio. Exinity Limited è regolamentata dalla FSC (Mauritius).
Avvertenza di rischio: Il trading è rischioso. Il tuo capitale è a rischio. Exinity Limited è regolamentata dalla FSC (Mauritius).
mercoledì, giugno 19, 2019

The Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masatsugu Asakawa is on the wires again, now commenting on the planned sales tax hike

The Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masatsugu Asakawa is on the wires again, now commenting on the planned sales tax hike due in October. As PM Abe and FinMin Aso have said, Japan will proceed with a scheduled sales tax hike in October void of Lehman-scale crisis. As shown in G20 communique's language on the global economy, there is no Lehman-scale crisis now. Japan won't take sides on US-China trade friction, our stance is to not take steps that violate WTO rules. On digital tax, G20 agreement will likely be about fusing various ideas proposed by countries rather than choosing one or the other.

Risk reversals on gold, a gauge of calls to puts on the yellow metal, rose to their highest level since November 2009 on Wednesday, indicating investo

Risk reversals on gold, a gauge of calls to puts on the yellow metal, rose to their highest level since November 2009 on Wednesday, indicating investors are adding bets to position for a sustained rally in the zero-yielding metal. One-month risk reversals (XAU1MRR) are currently trading at 2.375 in favor of call options (bullish bets) - a level last seen in mid-November 2009. A positive number indicates the implied volatility or demand for call options is higher than that for put options. Put simply, the bullish bias is the strongest in a decade. Gold is currently trading at $1,344 per Oz, having hit a 13-month high of $1,358 on Friday. More importantly, prices have rallied nearly 6 percent over the last 2.5 weeks. XAU1MRR

More comments are crossing the wires from the Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masatsugu Asakawa, with the key headlines fo

More comments are crossing the wires from the Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs Masatsugu Asakawa, with the key headlines found below. G7, G20 have discussed currency policy many times. It is widely understood among G7, G20 that BOJ's easy policy is aimed at beating deflation, not at manipulating currency. Japan's basic stance is that issue of trade, currency policy should not be mixed up. G7, G20 share common understanding to accept any currency falls driven by monetary policy, as long as monetary policy steps are taken for domestic purposes. Japan, other major economies have had ultra-easy policy after Lehman crisis which as a result affected exchange-rate moves. G20 finance leaders discussed impact of trade tension on global economy, more substantial trade topics like WTO reforms will likely be debated at G20 Osaka summit.

Iron-ore prices traded on the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) staged a solid comeback and rallied nearly 6% to hit an all-time high of 812 yua

Iron-ore prices traded on the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) staged a solid comeback and rallied nearly 6% to hit an all-time high of 812 yuan ($117.66) a tonne on Wednesday. The upsurge is backed by the revived optimism over a potential US-China trade deal to be reached when the US President Trump meets his Chinese counterpart Xi ahead of the G20 meeting in Japan next week.  Adding to this, the concerns over tighter supplies also buoyed the sentiment around the ferrous metal after the total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil fell 706,000 tonnes last week. The bounce in the prices is likely to keep the downside restricted in the Australian dollar, as iron-ore is Australia’s top export product. However, AUD/USD  remains trapped in a tight range near 0.6875 region, as the latest trade-related headlines and overtly dovish RBA June meeting’s minutes could outweigh the risk-on rally in the Asian equities and the iron-ore price rebound. Meanwhile, markets await the FOMC monetary policy decision for the next direction on the Aussie.AUD/USD Technical Levels to Watch 

Chinese Commerce Ministry released a statement last minutes, citing that it will maintain anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on the US distillers

Chinese Commerce Ministry released a statement last minutes, citing that it will maintain anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on the US distillers grains. No further details are out on the same. The news is likely to serve a negative impact on the Chinese proxies, the Antipodeans while markets weigh in the recent comments from the US President Trump on a potential US-China trade deal.

The sell-off in the NZD/USD has stalled ahead of the Federal Reserve's closely-watched policy decision later in the day. The currency pair rose 0.52%

NZD/USD has retraced nearly 25% of the recent drop.Recovery could be short-lived if the Fed fails to match dovish expectations.New Zealand's growth rate likely ticked higher in the first quarter.The sell-off in the NZD/USD has stalled ahead of the Federal Reserve's closely-watched policy decision later in the day. The currency pair rose 0.52% on Tuesday, retracing nearly 25% of the drop from 0.6681 to0.6487 seen over the preceding seven trading days. The NZD likely found takers on reports stating that  China and the United States are rekindling trade talks ahead of next week's meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The recovery may gather pace later today if the US Federal Reserve exceeds dovish expectations. Currently, the market is fully priced in for two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the December FOMC meeting and a 50% chance of a third. If the Fed fails to meet market expectations, the NZD/USD will likely fall back to recent lows below 0.65. Post-Fed, the focus would shift to New Zealand data, due at 22:45 GMT, which is expected to show the annualized growth rate ticked higher to 2.4% in the first three months of 2019 from 2.3% seen in the final quarter of 2018. A weaker-than-expected GDP will likely reinforce dovish RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) expectations and hurt the NZD. As of writing, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day near 0.6530.Technical Levels 

Reuters reports the latest comments by Masatsugu Asakawa, Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, as he responds to the falling 1

Reuters reports the latest comments by Masatsugu Asakawa, Japanese Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, as he responds to the falling 10-year Japanese government bond yields. Maintaining G20 policy coordination difficult when compared to when G20 began during the GFC. At the Finance Ministers G20 meeting we recognized the risks in EM, Europe and trade. Global imbalances need multilateral attention.

The Societe Generale Analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June monetary policy decision that wi

The Societe Generale Analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) June monetary policy decision that will be announced on Wednesday at 1800 GMT. Key Quotes: “For the June FOMC meeting, no rate cut is expected.  Signals offered via the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference will be closely watched. Our view is the Fed is on hold in 2019 but ready cut when the economy weakens below trend in 2020.”

USD/JPY has been restricted to the 108.80-107.80 trading range since June 4. Further, the pair is now trapped in a falling channel for almost two mont

USD/JPY is trapped in a falling channel on the daily chart. The daily RSI is reporting a bullish pattern. USD/JPY has been restricted to the 108.80-107.80 trading range since June 4. Further, the pair is now trapped in a falling channel for almost two months. As of writing, the upper edge of the falling channel is seen at 108.88 and the pair is trading at 108.53. A breakout looks likely, as the widely followed 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is reporting a descending channel breakout - a bullish development. That said, it all depends on what the US Federal Reserve says later today. The central bank is widely expected to lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. A channel breakout could happen if the Fed sounds less dovish-than-expected, opening the doors to 110.00. Daily chartTrend: NeutralPivot levels 
AUD/JPY is correcting the 9th June sell-off and has made it to the 38.20% Fibo retracement of the same range.The cross has penetrated the 20-4HR SMA with eyes towards the 50% Fibo retracement that meets the 2nd June swing low. This has forced stochastics into an overbought territory in a down-trending market, making for a good argument for a short according to such rules. However, with risk on markets taking up the theme, the 50% retracement leve is not far off around 75 the figure. 

Having failed to cross the 200-DMA, the USD/IDR pair remains on the back foot ahead of BI meeting as it takes the rounds to 14,272 during early Wednesday.

Repeated failures to cross 200-day SMA ahead of Thursday’s Bank Indonesia meeting.Mixed data, global recession fears can push BI towards another no rate change decision.Having failed to cross the 200-DMA, the USD/IDR pair remains on the back foot as it takes the rounds to 14,272 during early Wednesday. While today’s FOMC meeting can act as a major market moves, Thursday’s monetary policy decision by the Bank Indonesia (BI) will be closely observed for near-term trade direction. Despite upside surprises by the Indonesian inflation and consumer confidence data, sluggish retail sales and GDP figures continue to favor no change in the central bank’s monetary policy offering 6.0% BI rate. Pessimism surrounding the global trade outlook led by the US-China tussle also weighs on the Southeast Asian economy. TD Securities holds a dovish view for the Indonesian economy while expecting no change in Thursday’s monetary policy meeting. It says: BI is edging towards a rate cut amid low inflation and slowing activity, but will likely want to see further signs of IDR stability before pulling the trigger to begin reversing the 175bp of hikes implemented in 2018. The country’s Finance Minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, recently cited fears of global growth due to trade wars to support chances favoring the easy monetary policy from the BI. On the other hand, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is also not expected to alter its monetary policy but may have a higher market impact as trades will have the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and quarterly economic forecast to follow.Technical AnalysisUnless breaking 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 14,435, the quote continues to signal another visit to 14,150 and 14,000 ahead of aiming to visit the April month bottom around 13,970. Meanwhile, 21-day SMA can limit immediate upside at 14,307 ahead of highlighting 14,435. Should buyers manage to cross the key SMA resistance, 14,550, 14,620 and 14,662 might become their favorites.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted the medium-term lending (MLF) facility, with the key details found below. PBOC Injected 240

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) conducted the medium-term lending (MLF) facility, with the key details found below. PBOC Injected 240 bln yuan via one-year MLF. However, the Chinese central bank keeps the interest rate on one-year MLF unchanged at 3.3%.

While speaking at a rally of supporters earlier today, the US President Trump did make some remarks on a potential US-China trade deal at the G20 Summ

While speaking at a rally of supporters earlier today, the US President Trump did make some remarks on a potential US-China trade deal at the G20 Summit in Japan next week. Trump said, “we will have a fair deal with China or no deal at all”.Extra Reading:Trump’s team found removing Powell would be highly questionable

Japanese bond yields are feeling the pull of gravity a day after the European Central Bank President Draghi dropped a clear hint that the central bank

Japan's 10-year yield slips to lowest since August 2016. US 10-year yield hits a 21-month low. Draghi's dovish talk has put a bid under government bonds.  Japanese bond yields are feeling the pull of gravity a day after the European Central Bank President Draghi dropped a clear hint that the central bank could carry out more rate cuts to support the Eurozone economy. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond fell to the lowest level in nearly two years earlier today and was last seen trading at -0.14%. The US Treasury yields also declined in the overnight trade with the 10-year yield hitting a 21-month low of 2.06%. The Japanese government bond yields may continue to remain under pressure as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to keep key policy tools unchanged on Thursday and signal readiness to do more, if required.

While failure to cross 21-HMA dragged the EUR/GBP pair down, 200-HMA and two-week-long support-line limit the quote’s immediate declines on early Wednesday.

200-HMA, fortnight-long ascending trend-line limits immediate downside.A sustained break of 21-HMA can validate a fresh rise.While failure to cross 21-HMA dragged the EUR/GBP pair down, 200-HMA and two-week-long support-line limit the quote’s immediate declines as it trades near 0.8915 amid initial Wednesday. Not only 0.8910/05 support-confluence but oversold levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) also confines the pair’s additional declines, which in turn increases the likelihood of pullback moves towards 21-hour moving average (HMA) level of 0.8930. If at all the pair succeeds in breaking 0.8930 resistance, 0.8950 and the latest high around 0.8976 can hold the gates for 0.9000 round-figure. On the flipside, sustained downpour beneath 0.8905 highlights the importance of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8885 as support. It should also be noted that the pair’s additional weakness below 0.8885 might not refrain from calling 0.8850 and 0.8830 back to the chart.EUR/GBP hourly chartTrend: Positive 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8893 vs Tuesday's fix of 6.8942.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8893 vs Tuesday's fix of 6.8942. 

AUD/USD is flat-lined in Asia with traders ignoring a clear signal by Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index that Australian economic growth will l

AUD/USD remains flag with China's Yuan pushing higher against the US Dollar.Westpac's lead index points to more weak Aussie growth in the second half of this year.  AUD/USD is flat-lined in Asia with traders ignoring a clear signal by Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index that Australian economic growth will likely remain below trend through the rest of 2019. The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6880, representing marginal gains on the day, having hit a high of 0.6886 earlier today. The six months annualized growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose slightly from –0.49% in April to –0.45% in May. The index growth rate, however, remained negative for the sixth straight month in May - a signal that the Aussie economy will see below-average growth rate in the second half of this year. Even so, the AUD has so far managed to avoid losses, possibly due to the strength in China's offshore Yuan exchange rate (USD/CNH). The Chinese currency rose to 6.8925 against the US Dollar earlier today, the highest level since May 14. That said, the RBA June meeting minutes released on Tuesday confirmed that interest rates will probably fall further by the year-end. As a result, the AUD/USD pair will likely have a hard time extending the bounce from Tuesday's low of 0.6832 and may slip in to the negative during the day ahead.Pivot levels 

USD/CHF’s sustained trading beyond 21-DMA now enables the buyers to take the bids near 1.0010 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

A successful break of 21-day SMA favors further upside to near-term resistance-confluence.Immediate ascending trendline could follow on the downside break of 21-DMA.USD/CHF’s sustained trading beyond 21-DMA now enables the buyers to take the bids near 1.0010 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Next in the buyers’ radar will be 1.0035/40 resistance confluence comprising 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its January to April upside. In a case where prices rally past-1.0040, 1.0100 and 1.0130 could come back on the chart. Meanwhile, a downside break of 21-day SMA (DMA) level of 0.9986 can fetch the quote short-term support-line at 0.9963 now, a break of which may take a rest on 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9915 ahead of visiting 0.9900 round-figure. Should be extended south-run below 0.9900, current month low near 0.9860 and mid-January bottoms around 0.9800 might become bears’ favorites.USD/CHF daily chartTrend: Bullish 

USD/JPY has started out in Tokyo sideways, moving in a range between 108.53/60. Risk on markets sent the yen down while U.S. yields retraced from lows

All quiet ahead of the FOMC today, trading within tight range.Technically, according to the 4 hours chart, the neutral stance persists.USD/JPY has started out in Tokyo sideways, moving in a range between 108.53/60. Risk on markets sent the yen down while U.S. yields retraced from lows that followed a dovish rhetoric from  ECB's Draghi on optimism over a trde deal between China and the US.  First of all, Draghi’s speech announced that the ECB will ease policy further if it feels its inflation target is under threat. When coupled with what is expected to be a dovish outcome from the Federal Reserve tonight, global yields too up the pain. However, later in the day, news came that Trump and Xi will meet at G20 next week. Subsequently, USD/JPY rallied from the 108.00 London lows to 108.68  - Trump tweeted that he would be having an “extended meeting” with China president Xi at the G20 in Japan. This was followed up by Chinese state media and confirmed. However, the pair steadied around 108.45, by the close, hardly changed on the day.  As for yields, the US 10 years initially fell from 2.10% to 2.01% on the Draghi comments, but later retraced to 2.06% after the trade talk noise. Analysts at Westpac noted that markets are pricing a 100% chance of a cut by the July meeting, with a total of three cuts priced by December. "News broke that the White House in February explored removing Fed chair Powell from his position, and that may have contributed to a volatile session for interest rates," the analysts added.  FOMC outlookFederal Reserve Preview June 18-19 FOMC: Proto-EasingNotwithstanding the positive condition of the American economy the Fed has been deliberate in signaling its angst and, without saying so, preparing the markets for a change in policy... Fed communication has an inherent risk in that as the governors’ views become clearer the policy is rapidly priced into the market. Treasury rates have been falling for eight months.  Markets expect a clearer path to a July rate cut. Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet explained. USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that technically, the pair remains without signs of directional progress: "Although, the bearish case is firm in place in the daily chart, with a bearish 20 DMA capping the upside around a Fibonacci resistance at 108.90. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the neutral stance persists, as technical indicators have turned marginally higher but hold within neutral levels, while the price keeps hovering around a flat 20 SMA, and contained by a bearish 100 SMA."

Further to earlier news, where Trump was asked if he wanted to demote Fed chair Powell, he and said, 'Let’s see what he does,' there is chat that he w

Further to earlier news, where Trump was asked if he wanted to demote Fed chair Powell, he and said, 'Let’s see what he does,' there is chat that he went as far as asking White House lawyers for options on removing Powell. Trump’s team found removing Powell would be highly questionable.

EUR/USD's ongoing pullback has taken the shape of a bullish reversal pattern on shot duration charts. At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1201, ha

EUR/USD has created a falling wedge on the 4-hour chart.A move above 1.1247 would activate twin bullish cues.Strength in China's Yuan may bode well for the EUR.EUR/USD's ongoing pullback has taken the shape of a bullish reversal pattern on shot duration charts. At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1201, having dropped from 1.1243 to 1.1181 on Tuesday, courtesy of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi's dovish comments. Further, the shared currency is currently down almost 150 pips from the high of 1.1348 registered on June 7. With the retreat from highs near 1.1250, the pair seems to have created a falling wedge on the 4-hour chart. A wedge breakout would be confirmed if the spot sees a 4-hour close above 1.1216. The sentiment, however, has turned bearish following a Draghi's dovish talk and so it is better to err on the side of caution and wait for a move above 1.1247 before turning bullish. This is because a break above 1.1247 would activate twin bullish cues: A falling wedge breakout and a violation of the bearish lower highs pattern. A 4-hour close above 1.1247, if confirmed, would open the doors to a retest of recent highs near 1.1350. The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) is pushing higher against the US Dollar, now trading at 6.8938, the lowest level since May 14. The CNH strength could put a bid under EUR/USD, lifting it above 1.1247. The bearish case, however, would strengthen if the pair finds acceptance below Tuesday's low of 1.1181, which could happen if the US Federal Reserve sounds less dovish-than-expected later today. The central bank is widely expected to lat the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. 4-hour chartTrend: Bullish above 1.1247Pivot points 

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) remains unchanged at -0.1%

Even after breaking a week-long descending trend-line, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits the GBP/JPY pair’s immediate upside.

38.2% Fibo. holds the gate to pair’s rally towards 100-HMA.Overbought RSI questions recent trend-line breakout.Even after breaking a week-long descending trend-line, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limits the GBP/JPY pair’s immediate upside as it takes the rounds to 136.42 during early Wednesday. A sustained break of 136.50 nearby resistance can escalate latest trend-line breakout in the direction to 100-hour moving average (100-HMA) level of 136.74 whereas 137.00 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 137.20 can question buyers then after. In a case where prices manage to remain strong beyond 137.20, June 13 high around 137.80 and the previous week’s top near 138.33 could lure the bulls. 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is into the overbought region indicating brighter chances of a pullback. Alternatively, 136.15 and 21-HMA level of 136.00 seems nearby supports to watch ahead of aiming for 135.80 if holding a short position. Additionally, 135.37 and 135.00 might flash on the bear’s radar during extended downpour below 135.80.GBP/JPY hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected 

In addition to a surprise decline in private crude inventory data, fresh optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal also lures USD/CAD sellers.

A surprise drop in API oil stock report, optimism surrounding the G20 triggered the CAD strength.Canadian CPI and FOMC are on the trades’ radar for now.In addition to a surprise decline in private crude inventory data, fresh optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal also lures USD/CAD sellers as the quote drops to the intra-day low of 1.3373 during early Wednesday. A contraction in April month manufacturing shipments from Canada to -0.6% versus +0.4% forecast couldn’t disappoint the Canadian Dollar (CAD) buyers after the American Petroleum Institute (API) announced a surprise drop in weekly oil stocks. Adding to the optimism could be latest positive media announcements favoring a trade talks between the US and China at the sidelines of the G20 and a resumption of negotiations by second-tier officials of both the sides ahead of the event. Investors may now await fresh clues from May month CPI and Bank of Canada’s (BOC) core consumer price index (CPI) numbers prior to observing updates from the US Federal Reserve. While the Canadian CPI is expected to rise to 2.2% from 2.0% On a yearly format, the core CPI might soften to 1.2% from 1.5%. On the other hand, the US central bank isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy but the Chairman Jerome Powell might keep being cautious during his press conference.Technical Analysis21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.3405 acts as immediate upside resistance, a break of which can trigger the pair’s fresh advances targeting 1.3470 and 1.3510 numbers to the north. On the contrary, 100-day SMA level of 1.3355 may limit the pair’s declines in the direction to 1.3280 comprising 200-day SMA.

Forex today was seeing risk-on FX performing, basking in the rays of optimism following confirmation from both sides that Trump and Xi will be meeting

ECB President Draghi’s speech was dovish, adding to the overall easier global monetary policy tone. USD/JPY extended decline to just above 108.00 before bouncing on trade deal optimism. Forex today was seeing risk-on FX performing, basking in the rays of optimism following confirmation from both sides that Trump and Xi will be meeting at the G20 around the corner to discuss trade. On top of that, we have the Fed coming up today with markets in anticipation of a risk-on outcome following a dovish rhetoric from the central bank. At the same time, there were dovish remarks from the ECB where Draghi pointed towards an easier monetary policy to help prop up the eurozone economy. "The main catalyst was ECB President Draghi’s speech where he determinedly stated that the ECB will ease policy further if it feels its inflation target is under threat," analysts at ANZ Bank argued. Sundrqurntly, the US 10-year yield was 1.7bps lower while the German 10-year bund was lower by 7.6bps.  US data US May housing starts fell 0.9% m/m vs expectations of a 0.3% gain. "However, the April release was revised up, leaving the aggregate level as expected. Housing demand has shown some signs of benefitting from lower interest rates recently but concern over higher tariffs on building imports from China has dampened sentiment amongst home builders," the analysts at ANZ noted. Currency action: Analysts at Westpac offered a breakdown of the currency action as follows:EUR/USD fell from around 1.1240 to 1.1181 after the Draghi comments. GBP/USD probed lower in London trade but then recovered 0.5 cent to 1.2560. USD/JPY extended its Sydney session decline to just above 108.00 in London but then bounced as high as 108.68 after US president Trump tweeted that he would be having an “extended meeting” with China president Xi at the G20 in Japan next week. The pair steadied around 108.45, little changed net on the day.AUD/USD probed as low as 0.6832 in London trade but bounced as far as 0.6882 as sentiment improved on the belated confirmation of the Trump-Xi meeting. Outperformer NZD rose 0.5% to 0.6530. AUD/NZD dipped to 1.0507 before rebounding to 1.0530, net -0.2% on the day. The GDT dairy auction resulted in prices falling 3.8% overall, with whole milk powder down 4.3%, skim down 3.5%, and butter down 5.7%.Key notes from Wall Street: Wall Street rallies in risk on environment ahead of Fed 

Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance came in at ¥-609.1B, below expectations (¥-2.2B) in May

With the growing expectations of soft Brexit, buyers carry favor for the British Pound (GBP) as the GBP/USD pair trades around 1.2565 during early Tuesday.

Increasing favor for soft Brexit pleases GBP buyers.UK CPI, another round of Tory-voting and FOMC will provide a fresh impulse for trading.With the growing expectations of soft Brexit, buyers carry their favor for the British Pound (GBP) as the GBP/USD pair trades around 1.2565 during the initial Asian session on Wednesday. Even if frontrunner to the UK PM’s race Boris Johnson gained more than previous 114 to 126 votes during the second round of Tory contest, his failure to justify strong support for October 31 Brexit deadline and tax reliefs gives rise to expectations that the Brexit hardliner might end up turning soft on the key British issue. It should also be noted that there prevails on 5 candidates for the PM’s race as of now after the latest voting eliminated Dominic Raab, a former Brexit secretary. Adding to the relief could be statements from political fraternity indicating that there won’t be a general election until Brexit issue is solved. Investors seem to show less attention to the news that the news report suggesting that the opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn is planning to push for the change in Brexit policy and a second referendum during later today. Moving on, British consumer price index (CPI) and another round of voting to funnel down the list of UK PM candidates will be on the spotlight ahead of the FOMC. The UK CPI is expected to soften to 2.0% from 2.1% (YoY) during May whereas the FOMC isn’t expected to alter its monetary policy but press conference from the Chairman Jerome Powell and quarterly economic forecasts will be the key to observe.Technical AnalysisA sustained run up beyond 1.2580 might help extend the present upward trajectory towards 1.2650 and then to 21-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 1.2655. On the downside, on the downside break of the latest low, around 1.2500, bears can target December 2018 bottom near 1.2477 and the current year low surrounding 1.2438.

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total above expectations (¥-979.2B) in May: Actual (¥-967.1B)

Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -1.5% below forecasts (0.2%) in May

Japan Exports (YoY) below expectations (-7.7%) in May: Actual (-7.8%)

Oil managed a bid above the 200 weekly EMA overnight but has not pulled away entirely. The 61.8% Fibo is also located in this vicinity and has stabli

 Oil managed a bid above the 200 weekly EMA overnight but has not pulled away entirely.The 61.8% Fibo is also located in this vicinity and has stablised the downside.However, a move lower could see this area give out to open the 14th Jan 50.41 low.The 26th November low comes in at 49.44. Bulls have their eyes set on 54.50 and then 55.20 meeting the 20-D EMA. 

The NZD/USD pair showed little reaction to first quarter current account data while trading near 0.6530 during early Tuesday.

Higher than expected current account balance falls short to please buyers amid lesser than forecast current account to GDP ratio.Overbought RSI indicates pullback but 100-HMA holds the downside capped.The NZD/USD pair showed little reaction to first quarter current account data while trading near 0.6530 during early Tuesday. The Q1 2019 current account balance grew past $0.526 billion forecast and $-3.256 billion prior to $0.675 billion. However, the decline in the current account – GDP ratio to -3.6% versus -3.5% expected capped the Kiwi traders’ optimism. The pair struggles between a small area occupied by the 100-hour moving average (HMA) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its 12-day decline. While an upside clearance of 0.6533 can propel the pair towards 0.6550 and then to 200-HMA level of 0.6570, 0.6515 and 0.6500 may entertain sellers past-0.6525 break. Considering overbought conditions of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI), chances of its pullback are brighter. In that case, the latest low surrounding 0.6487 and May month bottom around 0.6480 seem the key for bears. Alternatively, an upside break of 0.6570 might not refrain from calling 0.6600 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6608 back to the chart.NZD/USD hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected 

Gold fell $10 shy of the Jan and April highs overnight that came in at around 1365. A run through there will open the summer 2016 highs in the 1370s

 Gold fell $10 shy of the Jan and April highs overnight that came in at around 1365.A run through there will open the summer 2016 highs in the 1370s ahead of the Sep 2013 highs in the 1435s. In a change of tide, 1338 and 1346 guard the 1320 level ahead of 1311. Below there, 1303/06 will open 1297. 1297 level meets the 50% Fibo retracement of the late April and early May double-bottom swing lows to recent spike high.  The 200-week moving average comes in at 1250s.

New Zealand Current Account - GDP Ratio below forecasts (-3.5%) in 1Q: Actual (-3.6%)

New Zealand Current Account (QoQ) registered at $0.675B above expectations ($0.526B) in 1Q

Early on Wednesday, Reuters came out with a news report quoting The Times that heard from its sources inside the Labour party.

Early on Wednesday, Reuters came out with a news report, quoting The Times that heard from its sources inside the Labour party, that the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn will back a move on Wednesday for Labour party to change its Brexit policy and support a second referendum in all circumstances. The news report further mentions that the Labour, which along with the Conservatives saw its support slump at the European elections as voters expressed their frustration over Brexit deadlock, is divided over whether to unequivocally support holding a second referendum.

However, longer term, the cross penetrated a 38.2% retracement at 123.10 in a continuation of the downside. A break of the 120 psychological level wi

EUR/JPY has been in consolidation in recent trade in a symmetrical triangle formation which can go either way. However, longer term,  the cross penetrated a 38.2% retracement at 123.10 in a continuation of the downside.  A break of the 120 psychological level will put the 119.91 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level under pressure that guards a run to 117.85 January spike low and trend line support.

Even after clearing 50-HMA, AUD/JPY is still left to cross the 100-HMA upside barrier as it takes the rounds to 74.56 during early Tuesday.

100-HMA and RSI levels challenge post-50-HMA breakout momentum.75.00 can return on the upside break.Even after clearing 50-HMA, AUD/JPY is still left to cross the 100-HMA upside barrier as it takes the rounds to 74.56 during early Tuesday. With 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) also indicating nearly overbought conditions, pair’s failure to break the 100-hour moving average (100-HMA) can trigger its pullback to 74.44 comprising 50-HMA. Given the quote’s extended declines beneath 74.44, 74.35 and 74.18 may offer intermediate halts before highlight latest low of 73.92 and the year 2016 low near 72.40. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 74.64 resistance including 100-HMA may recall 75.00 back to the chart. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 75.23 and June 11 high surrounding 75.68 can question buyers afterward.AUD/JPY hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Having been buoyed by the upbeat risk sentiment, mainly due to the trade positive news, the AUD/USD pair stabilizes near 0.6875 during the early Wednesday.

Aussie buyers cheered trade positive news but remain on the sideline ahead of the key FOMC.Global risk sentiment continues to linger due to Draghi’s speech at Sintra.Having been buoyed by the upbeat risk sentiment, mainly due to the trade positive news, the AUD/USD pair stabilizes near 0.6875 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Investors remain cautious ahead of the key FOMC meeting decision while developments surrounding the US and China trade talks, coupled with geopolitical plays between the US and Iran, will also be followed for direction. Despite dropping during early Tuesday, on the back of dovish RBA minutes and Aussie housing price data, the Australian Dollar (AUD) posted its first positive daily closing since June 07 as investors cheered welcome updates from Chinese media and the US President Donald Trump’s tweets concerning the trade talks at the upcoming G20. However, the global benchmark for risk sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yield remains negative to 2.058% by the press time due to pessimism spread by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi at the closing ceremony of ECB Forum in Sintra. While trade positive news renewed global risk sentiment yesterday, traders have started turned cautious ahead of today’s the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy decision amid global central bankers’ run for easing. While no change expectations give little importance to headline Fed rate decision, the quarterly growth and rate forecasts together with the Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference will be observed closely to predict the US central bank’s future policy moves.Technical AnalysisUnless clearing May 30 low near 0.6900, the Aussie pair can’t aim for 0.6940/45 resistance-area, needless to mention about 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6988. With this, chances of its pullback to 0.6860, 0.6830 and then to the 0.6800 seem brighter.

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock fell from previous 4.85M to -0.812M in June 14

Renewed optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks helps the NZD/USD pair to succeed it its second attempt of recovery.

Fresh positive messages concerning G20 meet pleased Antipodeans.New Zealand current account data is on the spotlight.Renewed optimism surrounding the US-China trade talks helped the NZD/USD pair to succeed it its second attempt of recovery as it trades near 0.6530 at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. The Kiwi benefited from the latest news suggesting that there will be a meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart at the sidelines of the upcoming G20 and both the leaders are positive ahead of the global gathering. With the Chinese media also being positive on the trade talks, the Antipodeans showed little reaction to the negatives elsewhere. As a result, New Zealand’s lesser than expected GDT price index couldn’t do much harm to the Kiwi buyers. Despite being on the road to recovery for the first time in 12 days, traders remain cautious ahead of first quarter current account data from New Zealand and the all-important FOMC meeting. Forecasts suggest, current account – GDP ratio to shrink from -3.7% to -3.5% while the headline current account is likely increasing to $0.526 billion versus $-3.256 billion on a quarterly basis during Q1 2019. Ahead of the event, analysts at TD Securities said, Q1 current account deficit looks like shrinking to —NZD1.58b or -3.2% of GDP (from -3.7%). Exports rose by at least +2% q/q, while imports fell slightly (lagged impact of falling oil prices). Our tracking suggests that net exports could add up to +0.8%pts to Q1 GDP. On the other hand, FOMC is less likely to alter its current monetary policy but Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and dot plot will be in the spotlight.Technical AnalysisIn order to extend the latest pullback towards 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 0.6605, the pair needs to cross 0.6560 upside barrier, failing to do so continues to highlight 0.6510 and 0.6480 as immediate supports.

The S&P500 finally broke above the 2,910.00 resistance. The market is bullish above the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). S&P500 4-hour chart

The S&P500 broke above the 2,910.00 resistance after two weeks of consolidations.The level to beat for bulls is seen at 2,940.00 resistance.S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 finally broke above the 2,910.00 resistance. The market is bullish above the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). S&P500 4-hour chart The stock index is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. The 50 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA confirming the bullish action. Buyers intend to reach 2,940.00 and 2,960.00 resistances. Immediate support can be located at 2,910.00 and 2,880.00.Additional key levels 

The U.S. benchmarks rallied on Tuesday, bolstered by the optimism of a trade deal between the US and China as well as prospects for easier monetary po

Wall Street rallied in a risk on environment ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed).Nasdaq Composite Index COMP added 108.86 points, or 1.4%, at 7,953.88.The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.35% rose 353.01 points, or 1.4%, at 26,465.54. The S&P 500 index added 28.08 points, or 1%, at 2,917.75.The U.S. benchmarks rallied on Tuesday, bolstered by the optimism of a trade deal between the US and China as well as prospects for easier monetary policy in both Europe and the US.  The S&P 500 closed within 1% of its record close on April 30 at 2.945.83. The finish for all three benchmarks represented the highest closes since at least May 7th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.35% rose 353.01 points, or 1.4%, at 26,465.54, putting the benchmark within 1.4% of its Oct. 3 all-time closing high. The S&P 500 index added 28.08 points, or 1%, at 2,917.75, placing the index within 1% of its April 30 record at 2,945.83, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP added 108.86 points, or 1.4%, at 7,953.88.  US data Analysts at ANZ Bank noted that the US May housing starts fell 0.9% m/m vs expectations of a 0.3% gain. "However, the April release was revised up, leaving the aggregate level as expected. Housing demand has shown some signs of benefitting from lower interest rates recently but concern over higher tariffs on building imports from China has dampened sentiment amongst home builders."DJIA levels:The technical outlook for the DJIA has switched to bullish again following a number of sessions moving sideways and consolidating above the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of April to June swing highs and lows. The 78.6% mark in the 26200s with a confluence of the 12th April gap was a key upside objective which has been breached. Eyes can turn up towards 27000 psychological level. However, on the flip side, the 25200 level comes in around the 11th March swing lows. 25000 guards a run towards 24500s and then 50% of the upside run made at the end of Dec at 24150.
 

US Pres Trump has been crossing the airwaves with the following comments: He has a good relationship with Xi. US/China negotiating teams are starting

US Pres Trump has been crossing the airwaves with the following comments: He has a good relationship with Xi. US/China negotiating teams are starting to talk tomorrow, but it has to be a good deal. US Trump, asked if he wanted to demote Fed chair Powell, says: Let’s see what he does. The ECB has helped that part of the world.

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