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Avvertenza di rischio: Fare trading è rischioso. Il tuo capitale è a rischio. FX Global Ltd è regolamentata dall’IFSC.

Cronologia Forex News

lunedì, gennaio 21, 2019

Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) declined to -6.7% in December from previous 3.6%

Reuters reports the latest comments by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Chief Ning, with the key headlines found below. China faced a lot

Reuters reports the latest comments by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Chief Ning, with the key headlines found below. China faced a lot of uncertainties in 2018. Contributed nearly 30 pct to global growth in 2018. China has confidence, the capability to achieve reasonable growth in 2019. China-US dispute had some economic effect but is manageable. China's economy has overcome challenges and forges ahead. Trade dispute won't change China's economic fundamentals.

The AUD/JPY pair is trading largely unchanged on the day at 78.60, having recovered from the session low of 78.28 a few minutes before press time, pos

The AUD/JPY pair is trading largely unchanged on the day at 78.60, having recovered from the session low of 78.28 a few minutes before press time, possibly on the back of an above-forecast China industrial production number.  The daily chart, however, shows the pair lacks a clear direction, having created a doji candle on Friday. Daily chartA close today above 79.11 (high of Friday's doji) would confirm bull doji continuation or continuation of the rally from recent lows below 72.00 and open up upside toward 80.00.  A close below 78.38 (Friday's low), however, would imply bearish doji reversal. Trend: Neutral AUD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 78.62
    Today Daily change: -0.05 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 78.67
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 77.69
    Daily SMA50: 80.13
    Daily SMA100: 80.38
    Daily SMA200: 81.34
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 79.11
    Previous Daily Low: 78.38
    Previous Weekly High: 79.11
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.56
    Previous Monthly High: 84.05
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.83
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.66
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.33
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 77.99
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 77.6
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 79.06
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 79.45
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.78    

Comments are crossing the wires by the spokesman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) following the release of the country’s key economic d

Comments are crossing the wires by the spokesman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) following the release of the country’s key economic data. China sees complicated international and domestic economic conditions. Macro leverage ratio stabilised in 2018. The size of China's tax cuts is above expectations.

The AUD/USD pair jumped 23 pips to 0.7177 soon before press time, courtesy of a better-than-expected China data. China's industrial production rose t

AUD/USD jumped 23 pips from session lows, possibly on the back of an above-forecast China industrial production data.The recovery could be short-lived, as China's Q4 GDP printed at the lowest level since early 2009.The AUD/USD pair jumped 23 pips to 0.7177 soon before press time, courtesy of a better-than-expected China data. China's industrial production rose to 5.7 percent year-on-year in December, beating the forecast of 5.3 percent by a big margin. The above-forecast reading could be taken a sign the global demand may not be as weak as previously thought. Meanwhile, retail sales ticked higher to 8.2 percent in December as expected. Still, the AUD risks falling back to session lows near 0.7150 as China's growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed to 6.4 percent year-on-year - the lowest since early 2009 - more so because both the PBOC and the Chinese government are unlikely to introduce a flood-like stimulus to support the ailing economy. As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7166. Thursday's low of 0.7147 is the level to beat for the bears. On the higher side, 0.7235 (Jan. 11 high) is the key resistance.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7155
    Today Daily change: -0.0013 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.18%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7168
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7112
    Daily SMA50: 0.7183
    Daily SMA100: 0.7172
    Daily SMA200: 0.7317
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7215
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7161
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7182
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7194
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7148
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7128
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7202
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7235
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7255  

China's YoY GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2018 came at +6.4% vs +6.4% exp and 6.5% previous, with the QoQ reading for Q2 coming in at +1.5% vs

China's YoY GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2018 came at +6.4% vs +6.4% exp and 6.5% previous, with the QoQ reading for Q2 coming in at +1.5% vs +1.5% exp and +1.6% last.  With regards to retail sales YoY, the number was in +8.2% vs 8.2% exp and 8.1% last, with industrial output YoY at 5.7% and 5.3% exp and 5.4% last. Meanwhile, urban investment YoY stood at +5.9% vs 6.0% expected and 5.9% last. 

China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets expectations (6.4%) in 4Q

China Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (1.5%) in 4Q

China Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (5.3%) in December: Actual (5.7%)

China Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (8.2%) in December

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 109.56 - down 0.18 percent on the day - and could drop further toward the ascending (bullish) 5-day moving av

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 109.56 - down 0.18 percent on the day - and could drop further toward the ascending (bullish) 5-day moving average (MA), currently at 109.26, courtesy of the bearish divergence of the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI).Hourly chartThe RSI is threatening to drop below 50.00 (in the bearish territory), having charted on Friday a lower high as opposed to a higher high on price. The major averages (50, 100 and 200) are trending north and located one above the other, signaling that the path of least resistance is on the higher side. The dollar, therefore, could find bids at the ascending 5-day MA of 109.26.Trend: pullback underway USD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 109.56
    Today Daily change: -0.19 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.17%
    Today Daily Open: 109.75
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.25
    Daily SMA50: 111.54
    Daily SMA100: 112.06
    Daily SMA200: 111.19
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 109.9
    Previous Daily Low: 109.06
    Previous Weekly High: 109.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
    Previous Monthly High: 113.83
    Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.57
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.38
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.24
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 108.73
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 108.4
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 110.08
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 110.41
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.92  

According to the latest Reuters poll published on Monday, economists are seen slashing the projections for 2018 Australian GDP growth amid disappointi

According to the latest Reuters poll published on Monday, economists are seen slashing the projections for 2018 Australian GDP growth amid disappointing fundamentals.Key Findings:“Economists polled by Reuters forecast Australia’s A$1.87 trillion ($1.34 trillion) of annual gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.0 percent in 2018, down from 3.2 percent in an October poll. The economy is then seen running around 2.7 percent through 2019 and 2020, further extending the country’s 26-year stretch without a recession. That was a slight mark-down from 2.8 percent in the previous poll, but would be a decent outcome given the headwinds gathering at home and abroad. The latest poll showed analysts expected the headline measure of consumer price inflation to run at 2.1 percent for this year, rising marginally to 2.3 percent in 2020.”  

EUR/JPY is tracking price action in global stocks and risk appetite with the greenback taking the lead, pressuring the euro as investors move away fro

EUR/JPY is enroute for a break of key support at 124.45/50 as the consolidation of recent correction wears thin. EUR/JPY is currently trading at 124.50, from a high of 124.88 and up from a low of 124.45. EUR/JPY is tracking price action in global stocks and risk appetite with the greenback taking the lead, pressuring the euro as investors move away from risk associated with German's poor run of economic performance of late and warnings from the ECB.  We have the ECB this week, which will likely do nothing although as Europe edges closer to a recession and the risks of a hard Brexit on the horizon should be detailed and worth a listen. "Inflation lies sharply below the ECB's implied December forecast and growth in the final quarter of 2018 likely came in at half the ECB's projected pace. However, we expect the ECB to look through lower energy prices and treat recent activity disruptions as temporary, and therefore leave both the balance of risks and its forward guidance unchanged from December," analysts at TD Securities explained. US government shutdown and Sino/US trade risksElsewhere, the US government shutdown is going to become more of a concern as it moves into the 29th day on Tuesday after Martin Luther King Jr. Day and s expected to hinder US growth by 0.1% every two weeks that the shutdown continues. This should start to impact US stocks and potentially support the yen. Another supporting factor could be the prolonged dispute between Beijing and the US over trade. With no concrete progress being reported, and so long as headlines remain conflicting, the yen can also collect a safe haven bid when stocks correct lower until a breakthrough is sighted. However, for the meantime, investors are clutching at straws and remain optimistic about promising headlines, despite their lack of credibility. For instance, markets rallied on reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discussed lifting some or all tariffs imposed on Chinese imports and suggested offering a tariff rollback during trade discussions scheduled for Jan. 30. However, the news was met with conflicting headlines where Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer had resisted the idea, one which had reportedly not yet been introduced to President Donald Trump. U.S. stocks advanced on the news even as a Treasury spokesman working with the administration's trade team denied the report: "Neither Secretary Mnuchin nor Ambassador Lighthizer have made any recommendations to anyone with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiation with China," the spokesman said. "This an ongoing process with the Chinese that is nowhere near completion.”EUR/JPY levelsA correction of stocks and sentiment could spell havoc for bulls protecting the 200 hr SMA which guards a breakdown to S3 at 123.72 and before the 23.6% fino retracement located at 123.09.. Analysts at Commerzbank explained that EUR/JPY faces tough resistance offered by a double Fibo at 125.50 and we would allow for some further near term weakness: "The market recently saw a major spike lower that eroded the 2012-2019 support line at 119.31 – the low was 117.845. The move looks exhaustive but should struggle at tougher resistance at 124.91/25.50, the August low and double Fibo. We favour near term failure and some near term consolidation. We suspect that price action here will prove pivotal and while capped here a negative bias will remain."

Gold (futures on Comex) stalled its minor recovery from weekly lows of 1280.10 levels and now trades flat near 1282 levels, as the bulls await the Chi

Firmer Treasury yields, US dollar keeping the recovery cappedAwaits China macro data for fresh trading impetus. Gold (futures on Comex) stalled its minor recovery from weekly lows of 1280.10 levels and now trades flat near 1282 levels, as the bulls await the Chinese GDP release for further trading impetus. The yellow metal attempted recovery in early trades in anticipation that disappointing Chinese growth numbers would re-ignite China slowdown concerns and eventually risk-aversion across the markets, boosting the safe-haven bids for gold. However, the recent gains in the US Treasury yields combined with broad-based US dollar strength keeps a check on the renewed upside. On Friday, gold prices fell sharply after the US equities and the greenback was lifted by improved risk appetite amid hopes for a resolution in the China-US trade war. The immediate focus now remains on the Chinese GDP, retail sales and industrial production data for fresh trading incentives while the risk trend will continue to remain the main driver amid holiday-thinned trading.Gold Technical LevelsXAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1283.02
    Today Daily change: 2.22 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.17%
    Today Daily Open: 1280.8
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1283.9
    Daily SMA50: 1252.63
    Daily SMA100: 1233
    Daily SMA200: 1228.8
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1292.56
    Previous Daily Low: 1280.65
    Previous Weekly High: 1295.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 1276.2
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1285.2
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1288.01
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1276.78
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1272.76
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1264.88
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1288.69
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1296.57
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1300.59  

US Treasury has reportedly told lawmakers of the lack of progress on the intellectual property dispute with China, which has been a major bone of cont

US Treasury has reportedly told lawmakers of the lack of progress on the intellectual property dispute with China, which has been a major bone of contention in the Sino-US trade war.  China officials have denied IP theft and have asked the US for proof. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7774 vs Friday's fix of 6.7665.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7774 vs Friday's fix of 6.7665.

The USD/CNH pair is not out of the woods, as the pair has charted a bear flag – a pause, which often ends up accelerating the preceding downtrend. 4-

The USD/CNH pair is not out of the woods, as the pair has charted a bear flag – a pause, which often ends up accelerating the preceding downtrend.4-hour chartAs seen above, the currency pair faced rejection at the upper edge of the inverted (bear flag) earlier today. The sell-off from the Dec. 21 high of 6.9193 will likely resume if the lower edge of the flag, currently at 6.7553, is breached. That would open the doors for a drop to 6.5733. The bear flag would be invalidated if the pair finds acceptance above the upper edge, currently at 6.8083.Trend: Neutral USD/CNH Overview:
    Today Last Price: 6.7981
    Today Daily change: -0.0103 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.15%
    Today Daily Open: 6.8084
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 6.8378
    Daily SMA50: 6.8835
    Daily SMA100: 6.8911
    Daily SMA200: 6.7312
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 6.8098
    Previous Daily Low: 6.7724
    Previous Weekly High: 6.8098
    Previous Weekly Low: 6.7396
    Previous Monthly High: 6.9509
    Previous Monthly Low: 6.826
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.7955
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.7867
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.7839
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.7594
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.7464
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.8214
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.8343
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.8588  

Bulls picked up the baton in NY and took the price off the aforementioned highs before drifting into a North American close of 109.69. With mixed earn

USD/JPY was finding resistance at 109.88 highs last week and spent the last phase of the closing session drifting lower despite a well-bid greenback. There remains an air of caution over rallies in risk apatite which leaves USD/JPY vulnerable. However, Friday's price action was mostly bid, with a rise from 109.06 to 109.59 into The New York open. Bulls picked up the baton in NY and took the price off the aforementioned highs before drifting into a North American close of 109.69. With mixed earnings reports, the stock markets took bullish cues from geopolitical and domestic political news instead. The U.S. government’s partial shutdown was in its 28th day on Friday and investors are fretting over the ramifications for the US economy that a prolonged political standoff could damage.  "The partial federal government shutdown enters its fourth week, the longest on record in modern times, with no end in sight. The adverse effects on the US economy grow geometrically with the length of the shutdown; the CEA estimates the GDP growth drag is now 0.13pp per week. At this point, the earliest Dec PCE inflation or Q4 GDP growth will be released is well into February," analysts at TD Securities noted. Sino/US trade disputeHowever, there was some optimism over a potential bilateral deal along with glimmers of hopes of a resolution soon to the Sino/Chinese trade dispute which helped to offset worries over the prolonged partial government shutdown and mixed corporate results which supported US stocks and risk appetite, weighing on USD/JPY - (The Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, climbed 336.25 points, or 1.4%, to close at 24,706.35 for a weekly gain of 3%. the S&P 500 index added 34.75 points or 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1%). The upbeat expectations on trade were reinforced by the Bloomberg report that Chinese officials have offered to increase imports from the U.S. by $1 trillion over the next six years, leading the stock market to close higher on Friday, extending its winning streak to a fourth session. Week aheadFor the week ahead, eyes will stay on the US government shutdown, Sino/US relations as well as the World Economic Forum in Davos and Chinese growth with Q4 Chinese GDP.  "Activity data for Oct/Nov and Dec qtr PMIs were weak, all pointing to slower GDP. Composite manufacturing PMIs slipped to 49.9 while services PMIs were elevated at 53.3. Retail sales/IP momentum points to GDP easing from 6.5% to 6.4%/y. Trade is supportive for growth as the slump in imports (-10%/q in nominal terms) outpaced the 2.5%/q fall in exports. Mkt range 6.2%-6.4%," analysts at TD Securities explained.USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 109.40 109.05 108.65             Resistance levels: 110.00 110.45 110.90 Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, the pair is poised to extend its advance according to technical readings in the daily chart, as technical indicators entered bullish territory, maintaining their strong upward slope: "The pair has also surpassed the 61.8% retracement of its 111.41/105.16 decline at 109.05, which opens doors for a test of the upper end of the range. Moving averages in this chart, however, remain above 111.50, putting at doubt a longer-term advance. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have lost directional strength at their weekly highs, with the RSI consolidating in overbought territory. The 100 SMA converges with the mentioned Fibonacci support, reinforcing the 109.00 region as support."

China's National Bureau of Statistics will publish the fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 02:00 GMT along with the retail sales, industria

China's National Bureau of Statistics will publish the fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) at 02:00 GMT along with the retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment numbers for December.  ForecastsThe world's second-largest economy is expected to have grown 6.4 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter – a level last seen in early 2019 – following a 6.5 percent expansion in the third quarter. The 6.4 percent print could push down 2018 GDP to 6.6 percent; the lowest level since 1990. Meanwhile, retail sales are forecast to rise 8.2 percent year-on-year in December, having jumped 8.1 percent in November. The December Industrial production is expected to come in at 5.3 percent, following a 5.4 percent reading in November.Impact on the Aussie dollarA dismal GDP reading would confirm what markets already know: China is feeling the heat of the Sino-US trade war and the weakening domestic demand. That would further boost China stimulus expectations. Both PBOC and the Chinese government have pledged more support for the economy this year, but have ruled out "flood-like" stimulus. Put simply, there is less scope for "bad news is good news"-like action in the Aussie dollar – a proxy for China. AUD/USD could feel the pull of gravity, having charted a bearish inside-day on Friday, especially if consumption, as represented by retail sales, misses estimates by a big margin. That would validate the message delivered by the slide in December imports that domestic demand (consumption) is unlikely to compensate for the weakness in the international trade. As of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7162. Thursday's low of 0.7147 is the level to beat for the bears. On the higher side, 0.7235 (Jan. 11 high) is the key resistance.What is GDP?The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic event would have an impact on the Forex market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) carried a fresh report on Monday, citing that the markets are pricing in a 50% chance of an RBA rate cut in Dece

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) carried a fresh report on Monday, citing that the markets are pricing in a 50% chance of an RBA rate cut in December 2019 while the odds of a rate cut in February stands at 58%. The rate cut expectations are on account of the following reasons: “Plunge in consumer confidence by the most in more than three years because of softening expectations about the economy and household finances. Forecasts of a deeper downturn in residential property prices. Elevated concerns around household debt.”

AUD/JPY has been drifting higher since the recovery of the flash crash that took the pair to the lowest levels since 2010. The cross has been able to

AUD/JPY has been capped and rejected with long hourly shadows amid bullish recovery from flash crash lows. The cross will monitor US stocks for direction amidst US government shutdown risks. AUD/JPY awaits Chinese data today to kick things off. AUD/JPY has been drifting higher since the recovery of the flash crash that took the pair to the lowest levels since 2010. The cross has been able to climb on dollar weakness, a bid in commodities, (oil is the hottest its been since 2001, +18%), and renewed investor optimism in the best start to the year for stocks in at least a decade.  AUD/JPY is regarded as the market's risk barometer and the week ahead should be compelling enough when the US returns from  Martin Luther King Jr. Day. considering the US government will be in partial shutdown for its 29th day in a row and investors should start to pay more attention considering the number of jobs that are at stake and to the detriment of the US economy, (losing 0.1% every two weeks in GDP).  Meanwhile, today agenda has Chinse GDP Q4 and if this proves that indeed growth has slowed for the quarter, the Aussie will likely come under significant pressure, weighing on the cross, especially if risk-off takes a hold earl on this week, correcting last week's optimistic finish. China's growth pulse has decelerated through 2018 - WestpacAUD/JPY levelsAUD/JPY is chipping away at the downside, eyeing S1 located at 78.37 with the confluence of the 21 4hr SMA just tucked in below at 78.35. This also meets two 4hr fractals 11th and 16th Jan. On break there, there is support way to 77.75 and then 77.07.  AUD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 78.56
    Today Daily change: -0.11 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.14%
    Today Daily Open: 78.67
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 77.69
    Daily SMA50: 80.13
    Daily SMA100: 80.38
    Daily SMA200: 81.34
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 79.11
    Previous Daily Low: 78.38
    Previous Weekly High: 79.11
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.56
    Previous Monthly High: 84.05
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.83
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.66
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.33
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 77.99
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 77.6
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 79.06
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 79.45
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.78  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 0.7% to 0.4% in January

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.4% in January from previous -1.5%

According to the Reuters monthly poll that tracks the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) closely watched Tankan quarterly survey, confidence among Japanese manufac

According to the Reuters monthly poll that tracks the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) closely watched Tankan quarterly survey, confidence among Japanese manufacturers dipped for a third straight month in January to a two-year low amid global growth concerns and looming trade tensions.Key Findings:“The sentiment index for manufacturers stood at 18, down five points from the previous month, dragged down by declines in sectors such as steel and automobiles, according to the survey conducted Jan. 7-16. The index is expected to fall further to 17 in April. Underpinned by retailers, the service-sector index held steady at 31 in January reflecting firmness in private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy. The service-sector index was seen slipping to 27 in April. In the Reuters poll of 480 large- and mid-sized companies, in which 480 firms responded on condition of anonymity, exporters complained about lack of demand in China and the United States and voiced concerns about the trade war between Japan’s two major trading partners.”

Analysts at Westpac offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the key Chinese Q4 2018 GDP data due to be reported on Monday at 0200 GMT. Key Quotes:

Analysts at Westpac offer a sneak peek at what to expect from the key Chinese Q4 2018 GDP data due to be reported on Monday at 0200 GMT.Key Quotes:“China's growth pulse has decelerated through 2018. Seems likely the target of 6.5% growth will still be achieved. In contrast, quarterly growth is likely to be 1.5% (6.0% annualized) or below, as weak investment weighs. The focus has already shifted to the year to come. Most likely to be around 6.0%. In the months ahead, investment is likely to struggle to accelerate from its current pace. Meanwhile, the strong consumption growth of early-2018 continues to decelerate.”

Risk rallied on Friday but so too did the dollar, although it has now reached a strong level of resistance on the DXY, where the price has now met and

NZD/USD caught in a bearish trend, rejected by 200-hr SMA on breakup failures. NZD/USD traders will turn to NZ CPI this week.How long can the dollar hold up in the face of a prolonged US government shutdown?Risk rallied on Friday but so too did the dollar, although it has now reached a strong level of resistance on the DXY, where the price has now met and been capped by the 50% retracement Fibo of the mid-Dec decline to YTD lows.  With the market's attention on the US government shutdown now entering its 29th day when US government workers return from the holiday honouring Martin Luther King Jr. Day, as well as ongoing noise surrounding the Sino/US trade-spat and against a 'Fed on hold" backdrop of sentiment, it's hard to see strong enough cause to keep long of the greenback at this juncture.Domestic political risks to the dollarWeekend reports leave the US government shutdown and Sino/US trade tensions up in the air and still very much uncertainty that can continue to weigh on risk sentiment in general. The fundamentals are therefore neutral for the pair without any new recent domestic data from New Zealand to shift the current thinking hat the RBNZ is on hold for the foreseeable future.  "USD rose into the weekend on excitement about possible trade talk progress, though there’s still a long way to go on that front," analysts at ANZ Bank explained adding, "NZD slid on this cross, but remains in recent ranges. With global concerns still percolating in the background, attention now turns to NZ CPI this week. The mix of inflation matters. But if a zero eventuates as we expect, it could weigh on kiwi, with markets increasingly expecting a more dovish RBNZ"NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6650  Resistance 0.6860 The price was rejected the 200-hr SMA on two breakup occasions of late and the doji formed on the 14th Jan has played out into a series of lower highs on a daily time frame basis. However, the price is trying to stabilise with a higher low on 17th Jan. However, the price is now testing below the 21-D SMA located at 0.6741 with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low and a break below there will open up 0.6705. A break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6688 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo.

Reuters reports the recent comments delivered by the German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Brexit when interviewed by ZDF television on Sunday. Key Q

Reuters reports the recent comments delivered by the German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Brexit when interviewed by ZDF television on Sunday.Key Quotes:When asked about media reports on the UK PM May’s possible talks with Ireland, “It seems to be creative but it is not so clear to me how it would work.” “We have to negotiate and also agree a withdrawal agreement with Britain. It is a bit of a mystery to me what the British government wants to negotiate with Dublin or what sort of an additional agreement it should be. It won’t have any effect on what was agreed with the Commission.”   

The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is out with its latest report on the Australian housing markets, underscoring the impact of the

The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is out with its latest report on the Australian housing markets, underscoring the impact of the recent house price falls.Key Highlights:State governments in Australia are feeling the pressure from the correction in the housing market. Moody's referring to revenue falls from mandatory charges on house sales as sales slow. The GST reform has added revenue to states, but not enough to offset the fall in stamp duty.

As we get set for a new trading week, albeit with the US out on holiday in honour of Martin Luther King Jr. Day., there are a few noteworthy headlines

As we get set for a new trading week, albeit with the US out on holiday in honour of Martin Luther King Jr. Day., there are a few noteworthy headlines in the weekend press including, U.S. government shutdown is now a major risk for the US dollar; (DXY capped by 50% Fibo retracement, as well as Brexit.  The saga continues. Following a humiliating defeat last week when UK's Prime Minister May lost the vote on her Brexit deal in The Commons which gave rise to a leadership challenge by the opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, of which the Prime Minister subsequently won,  he is now moving to Plan B and needs to present the next stage of her plan in a “neutral motion" on Monday as she seeks to steer Britain out of the EU with a deal.  However, there are weekend headlines reporting that there are attempts by fellow MPs to "ambush" her statement on Monday with amendments aimed at stopping a no-deal Brexit, as well as paving the way for “indicative votes” to show whether any proposal can command a parliamentary majority, The Guardian reported. For instance, "Yvette Cooper, chair of the home affairs select committee, is planning to put down a tightly worded amendment to give time for a bill which would give parliament the power to back an extension of article 50." More from the Guardian's article:  "A No 10 spokesman said there was deep unease at the wider implications of such amendments. “Any attempt to remove the government’s power to meet the legal conditions of an orderly exit at this moment of historic significance is extremely concerning,” he said." “This news should serve as a reminder to those MPs who want to deliver Brexit that they need to vote for it, otherwise there is a danger that parliament could stop Brexit.”Good Friday agreement could be the solutionWorryingly, another weekend news, and something that should upset the strength in the pound, especially following the UK's retail sales miss, is that there have been no solutions' to Irish backstop in May's more recent Brexit call with her cabinet. May was reported to have held a conference call with her divided cabinet from the country retreat of Chequers on Sunday evening, but Cabinet sources said there were “no actual solutions” proposed during the call. Indeed, she will need to propose changes to the backstop if she is to try and win over the DUP and Tory rebels and then take the proposals to Brussels. So, could amendments to the Good Friday agreement be the solution?UK PM Theresa May considering amending Good Friday agreement – Daily Telegraph   
       
 

Having witnessed some choppiness in the overnight trades,  the AUD/USD enters a phase of come in early Asia, trading modestly flat near the 0.7170 reg

Bulls turn cautious, capped below 0.7200 ahead of China data dump.Holiday-thinned markets to exaggerate the moves, as US government shutdown remains a major risk for the greenback. Having witnessed some choppiness in the overnight trades,  the AUD/USD enters a phase of come in early Asia, trading modestly flat near the 0.7170 region, with the bias leaning towards the downside heading into the Chinese data flow due on the cards at 0200 GMT. The Chinese GDP report is likely to show the economic growth to have slowed down to 6.4% in Q4 2018 versus 6.5% previous while the industrial production is also expected to ease a bit to 5.3% versus 5.4% last. However, the downside appears cushioned so far this session, as the USD bulls take a breather after Friday’s rally, fuelled by higher Treasury yields amid improved risk sentiment. The 10-year Treasury yields hit three-week highs near 2.79% while the US dollar reached two-week tops at 96.39 across its main competitors. At the press time, the USD index consolidates near 96.30/35 levels. Looking ahead, the Chinese macro data remain a major risk to the Aussie dollar amid looming China slowdown fears while the sentiment around the buck could be weighed down by the US government shutdown, as the holiday-thinned light trading could exaggerate the price movement. The US markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Day.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7166
    Today Daily change: -0.0002 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7168
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7112
    Daily SMA50: 0.7183
    Daily SMA100: 0.7172
    Daily SMA200: 0.7317
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7215
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7161
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7182
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7194
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7148
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7128
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7202
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7235
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7255  

The UK’s Daily Telegraph carries a story, citing that the UK PM Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday agreement after abandoning attempt

The UKs Daily Telegraph carries a story, citing that the UK PM Theresa May is considering amending the Good Friday agreement after abandoning attempts to negotiate a cross-party deal to resolve the Brexit impasse.Key Quotes:“The Prime Minister will on Monday update Parliament on her attempts to draw up a so-called "plan B" for Brexit following cross-party talks in Westminster - and discussions with other EU leaders. One of the proposals under consideration is rewriting the 1998 accord to assure Ireland that the UK is committed to no hard border on the island after the UK leaves the European Union in March.”

The US stock market got optimistic about not only bullish noise over the progress of Sino/US trade solutions but as the U.S. government’s partial shut

As we get set for a new trading week, albeit with the US out on holiday in honour of Martin Luther King Jr. Day., there are a few noteworthy headlines in the weekend press and we start with the US partial shutdown of the government.The US stock market got optimistic about not only bullish noise over the progress of Sino/US trade solutions but as the U.S. government’s partial shutdown moved in to its 28th day on Friday, ( a prolonged shutdown is estimated to cut U.S. economic output by about 0.1percent every two weeks), investors cheered some signs that indicated that Trump as about to make an offer to the Democrats. However, weekend news reports that Trump's offer was rejected.Trump's weekend Twitter frenzyThis lead Trump tweeting like crazy on Sunday, ripping into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in particular,  in which he appeared to threaten to increase deportations of undocumented immigrants living in the United States, defending his proposal to end the partial government shutdown. Pelosi said in a Saturday statement that the proposal was "a compilation of several previously rejected initiatives, each of which is unacceptable and in total do not represent a good faith effort to restore certainty to people’s lives." Trump's proposal included giving circa 1 million immigrants three-year protection from deportation in exchange for $5.7 billion in funding for a wall along the U.S. southern border.  The shutdown will now go into its 29th day once markets return after the national holiday on Monday, but it could become a major risk for markets that are already troubled by the trade wars and a doubling of US budget deficit due to Fed policy to date, and investors might not be able to ignore it any of this for much longer; Afterall, there are some 800,000 federal workers missing paychecks and GDP is calculated to drop 0.1percent every two weeks. As much as 0.2 percentage points off the first-quarter GDP could be shaved if this continues into February, according to Gregory Daco, the chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.  At this rate, the US dollar is likely to find a tough time finding bullish traction when the market weighs up the risks of a prolonged government shutdown, damaging US economic growth and investor sentiment. When coupled with no foreseen solution to the Sino/US trade dispute and the Federal Reserve tipped to hold for the near future, the 50% Fibo retracement of the mid Dec decline to YTD lows looks to be a hard resistance to overcome in the DXY, located at 96.37, in line with Friday's closing high. 
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