Avvertenza di rischio: Fare trading è rischioso. Il tuo capitale è a rischio. FX Global Ltd è regolamentata dall’IFSC.
Avvertenza di rischio: Fare trading è rischioso. Il tuo capitale è a rischio. FX Global Ltd è regolamentata dall’IFSC.

Cronologia Forex News

venerdì, novembre 16, 2018

October industrial production came in a little soft, up just a tenth of a percent and details show utilities output slowed 0.5% and mining slipped 0.3

October industrial production came in a little soft, up just a tenth of a percent and details show utilities output slowed 0.5% and mining slipped 0.3%, explained analyst at Wells Fargo. They point out that the key manufacturing category extended its streak, adding 0.3%.Key Quotes: “Manufacturing production comprises about three quarters of all output and here we observed the fifth straight monthly increase, the longest uninterrupted streak since 2013.” “For a number of reasons, including vulnerability to weather trends, the utilities sector is notoriously volatile. In October, utilities output slumped 0.5%.” “While also volatile, trends can still be seen in mining output as activity tends to rise and fall with energy prices. The recent steep declines in oil prices are clearly not a good development for this category. Some retracement in oil prices would be a relief.”
 

Data released today showed that  manufacturing sales rose 0.2% in September in Canada. Nathan Janzen, Senior Economist at RBC Capital Markets points o

Data released today showed that  manufacturing sales rose 0.2% in September in Canada. Nathan Janzen, Senior Economist at RBC Capital Markets points out that looking through monthly volatility, underlying trends still look respectable with tear-over-year manufacturing sales up 1.9% and volumes 2.4%.Key Quotes: 
 
“Manufacturing sales inched up 0.2% in September. Controlling for an increase in prices, sale volumes ticked 0.1% lower after a 0.4% drop in August. Together, those declines still only partially retraced a 1.1% increase in July, though. Motor vehicle sales bounced back 4.8% in September after a 7.1% drop in August as atypical production shutdowns eased. A 6.3% drop in machinery sale volumes was the main source of offset.” “Given earlier strength, underlying trends still look respectable. Sale volumes were still up 5.5% at an annualized rate in Q3 from Q2 and are still up 2.4% year-to-date relative to year-ago levels. Business surveys continue to suggest that capacity constraints and labour shortages are growing headwinds and a pullback in oil prices in recent weeks has raised some concern about some potential retrenchment in the energy sector.  At the same time, a stronger Canadian economy and much improved U.S. industrial sector still seem to be supporting demand growth.”

EUR/USD 4-hour chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average.  EUR/USD hit the 1.1400 target as the market r

EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 200-period simple moving average. EUR/USD hit the 1.1400 target as the market reclaimed the 50 and 100-period simple moving average. Technical indicators remain strong. The next target for bulls is seen at 1.1450 while a break below 1.1300 on a daily closing basis would be seen as a bearish continuation. Additional key levels at a glance:EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1405
    Daily change: 73 pips
    Daily change: 0.644%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466  

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar is now out on the wires, delivering the key quotes, via Reuters, seen below. Very hard to avoid hard border in no

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar is now out on the wires, delivering the key quotes, via Reuters, seen below. Very hard to avoid hard border in no-deal scenario. No-deal Brexit would be extremely chaotic, after a few weeks UK might sign deal. There is a provision for Article 50 extension but UK government would have to request it. Doesn’t see much room for renegotiation of Brexit deal.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is now trading under further selling pressure and drops to fresh multi-day lows near 96.40. US

The index loses further momentum and drops to lows near 96.40.US 10-year yields also test lows in sub-3.09% area.US Industrial Production expanded less than expected in October.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is now trading under further selling pressure and drops to fresh multi-day lows near 96.40.US Dollar Index weaker post-FedspeakA bout of selling pressure has been hitting the greenback in response to dovish comments from Fed’s VP R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish), sending the index to fresh lows in the vicinity of 96.40. In fact, at his interview with CNBC, Clarida noted the Fed should remain vigilant on the prospects of slowing economic growth overseas, adding that rates are approaching the ‘neutral’ level (neither restrictive nor stimulative). On the not-so-dovish side, Clarida said the economy is in good shape. Clarida’s comments came in opposition to those made by Chief J.Powell in past weeks, when he advocated that the Fed could go past the neutral level. The sudden drop in the buck echoes a move in yields of the key US 10-year reference, dropping to fresh lows in levels below 3.09%. In the US docket, Industrial Production expanded less than expected in October at a monthly 0.1%, while Capacity Utilization rose to 78.4%, a tad above prior surveys.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is losing 0.61% at 96.50 facing the next support at 96.40 (low Nov.16) followed by 95.68 (low Nov.7) and finally 95.64 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a breakout of 97.69 (2018 high Nov.12) would open the door to 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017).

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has recently crossed the wires saying that the German government was constantly preparing for the risk of a hard B

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has recently crossed the wires saying that the German government was constantly preparing for the risk of a hard Brexit and called on policymakers in the UK to accept the Brexit deal (via Reuters).

"Activity in the region’s service sector expanded modestly, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2018 Busi

"Activity in the region’s service sector expanded modestly, according to firms responding to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2018 Business Leaders Survey," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Friday.Key takeaways from the press releaseThe survey’s headline business activity index was little changed at 8.6. The business climate index moved down nine points to 12.9, a sign that firms, on balance, regarded the business climate as better than normal, though to a lesser extent than last month. Employment levels increased modestly, and wage increases continued, though they were somewhat less widespread than in October. The prices paid index remained elevated at 57.1, and the selling price index fell nine points to 19.5. Optimism waned, with the index for future business climate falling to zero for the first time in over a year.
 

After spending the majority of the day in a relatively tight range below the 1.32 mark, the USD/CAD pair lost its traction in the early NA session and

Fed's officials' comments weigh on the USD on Friday.Industrial production expands less than expected in the U.S. in October.Crude oil recovery helps the loonie gather strength.After spending the majority of the day in a relatively tight range below the 1.32 mark, the USD/CAD pair lost its traction in the early NA session and fell to its lowest level in a week at 1.3127. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3137, losing 0.3% on a daily basis. In an interview with CNBC, the Federal Reserve's new Vice Chairman, Richard Clarida, warned that the Fed needed to factor in the global economic slowdown in its outlook and added that the Fed was close to the "vicinity of neutral." Following these remarks, the US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell to its lowest level since November 8 at 96.40 and was last seen down 0.68% on the day at 96.45. Additionally, a 1% drop seen in the 10-year U.S. T-bond yield put some extra weight on the greenback's shoulders. The only data from the U.S. today showed that the industrial production in October increased by 0.1% to miss the market expectation of 0.2%. Commenting on the data, "The US manufacturing sector remained healthy in October rising 0.3%. The overall industrial sector gain of 0.1% was dragged down by a 0.3% decline in mining and a 0.5% drop in utility output," FXStreet Senior Analyst Joesph Trevisani said. On the other hand, crude oil prices are looking to close the third day in a row higher with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate adding 1.7% on a daily basis and helping the commodity-sensitive loonie stay resilient against its rivals.Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the first technical support at 1.3085 (Nov. 8 low) ahead of 1.3040 (50-DMA) and 1.3000 (psychological level/200-DMA). On the upside, resistances are located at 1.3185 (daily high), 1.3260 (Nov. 14 high) and 1.3335 (Jun. 21 high).

EUR/USD breaks above the daily consolidative theme and is now flirting with fresh tops around the critical 1.1400 handle. EUR/USD up on Clarida comme

The index gathers further traction and surpasses the 1.1400 handle.The greenback tumbles to session lows near 96.60.US Industrial Production expanded 0.1% MoM in October.EUR/USD breaks above the daily consolidative theme and is now flirting with fresh tops around the critical 1.1400 handle.EUR/USD up on Clarida commentsDovish comments from fresh Vice Chairman Richard Clarida sent the greenback lower at the end of the week, forcing at the same time yields of the key US 10-year note to drop to sub-3.09% levels, also recording daily troughs. Sellers around the buck quickly stepped in after Clarida warned the Federal Reserve should be somewhat concerned over ‘some evidence of global slowing’, while he also said he does not expect ‘big pick up in inflation next year’. Back to the US calendar, Industrial Production expanded at a monthly 0.1% during last month, a tad below consensus. Following these figures, Senior Market Analyst at FX Street Joseph Trevisani noted : “The US manufacturing sector remained healthy in October rising 0.3%. The overall industrial sector gain of 0.1% was dragged down by a 0.3% decline in mining and a 0.5% drop in utility output”. Further out, Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.4% in the same period vs. 78.3% forecasted.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.67% at 1.1404 facing the next hurdle at 1.1449 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) seconded by 1.1502 (high Nov.7) and then 1.1519 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1214 (2018 low Nov.12) would target 1.1188 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 up move) en route to 1.1118 (low Jun.20 2017).

   •  The pair extended this week's retracement slide from near 4-month tops and dropped to 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart during the early Nort

   •  The pair extended this week's retracement slide from near 4-month tops and dropped to 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart during the early North-American session on Friday.   •  With technical indicators on the mentioned chart holding in bearish territory, bearish traders are likely to aim towards challenging one-month-old ascending trend-channel support.   •  A convincing breakthrough the channel support would indicate that the pair might have already topped out in the near-term and pave the way for an extension of the corrective slide.
 USD/CAD 4-hourly chartUSD/CAD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3148
    Daily change: -36 pips
    Daily change: -0.273%
    Daily Open: 1.3184
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3137
    Daily SMA50: 1.3045
    Daily SMA100: 1.3068
    Daily SMA200: 1.2963
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3253
    Daily Low: 1.3156
    Weekly High: 1.3233
    Weekly Low: 1.3056
    Monthly High: 1.3172
    Monthly Low: 1.2783
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3193
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3216
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3143
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3101
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3046
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3239
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3294
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3336  

"Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October, as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases elsewhere," the Board of Governors of the Fed

"Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October, as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases elsewhere," the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System reported on Friday.Key takeaways from the press releaseAs a result of upward revisions primarily in mining, the overall index is now reported to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in the third quarter, appreciably above the gain of 3.3 percent reported initially. Hurricanes lowered the level of industrial production in both September and October, but their effects appear to be less than 0.1 percent per month. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was 78.4 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

United States Capacity Utilization registered at 78.4% above expectations (78.2%) in October

United States Industrial Production (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in October: Actual (0.1%)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 4-hour chart.  GBP/USD broke above the 1.2850 resistance level as technical indi

GBP/USD 4-hour chartGBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD broke above the 1.2850 resistance level as technical indicators are starting to pick up steam. GBP/USD found strong buying interest at the November low opening the doors to a pullback up to the 1.2950 level. 
Additional key levels at a glance:
GBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.2854
    Daily change: 76 pips
    Daily change: 0.595%
    Daily Open: 1.2778
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2934
    Daily SMA50: 1.3033
    Daily SMA100: 1.3023
    Daily SMA200: 1.3379
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3032
    Daily Low: 1.2724
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2841
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2914
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2537
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.235
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2965
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3152
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3273  

The USD/JPY extended its daily slide in the last hour as the weak risk appetite, as reflected by the sharp drop witnessed in the major European equity

Risk aversion on Friday helps JPY find demand.US Dollar Index drops below 97 mark.Coming up: Industrial production and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index data from the US.The USD/JPY extended its daily slide in the last hour as the weak risk appetite, as reflected by the sharp drop witnessed in the major European equity indexes, continued to help the safe-haven JPY find demand while greenback stayed under a bearish pressure.  As of writing, the pair was trading at 112.90, losing 0.65% on a daily basis. The ongoing political drama in the UK and the uncertainty surrounding the draft Brexit deal weighed on the market sentiment on Friday and the UK's FTSE 100 index lost nearly 1%. Additionally, Germany's DAX was last seen down 0.75% on the day.  On the other hand, the US Dollar Index, which failed to stay above the 97 mark earlier today, came under a renewed selling pressure following some cautious comments from Fed officials. In an interview with CNBC, Fed's Vice Chairman said that the Fed needed to factor global economic slowdown in its outlook and added that the Fed policy was getting close to the "vicinity of neutral." On the same note, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan warned that the weakening global growth could be a "little bit of headwind and may spill to the U.S." Ahead of the industrial production and capacity utilization data, the US Dollar Index is down 0.56% on the day at 96.55.Technical levels to considerThe pair could face the initial support at 112.65 (Nov. 2 low) ahead of 112.00/05 (psychological level/100-DMA) and 111.60 (Oct. 15 low). On the upside, resistances are located at 113 (50-DMA), 113.60 (daily high) and 114.20 (Nov. 12 high).

   •  A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade benefits traditional safe-haven assets.    •  Fresh USD selling pressure provided an additional boos

   •  A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade benefits traditional safe-haven assets.
   •  Fresh USD selling pressure provided an additional boost and remains supportive.
   •  Technical buying above $1217 hurdle further accelerates the positive momentum.
Gold finally broke out of its European session consolidation phase and surged to fresh weekly tops, further beyond the $1220 level in the last hour.  A combination of supporting factors helped the precious metal to built on this week's goodish recovery move from over one-month lows and continue gaining positive traction for the fourth consecutive session.  A fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade, as depicted by a weaker tone around equity markets amid the latest UK political turmoil and resurfacing US-China trade tensions, was seen underpinning the precious metal's safe-haven demand. The UK Brexit minister Dominic Raab, along with several other ministers and ministerial aides, resigned on Thursday in a wide protest against Prime Minister Theresa May's draft deal for leaving the European Union. Adding to this, letters calling for a no-confidence vote added to the UK political uncertainty and dented investors’ appetite for riskier assets.  Investors also kept a close eye on trade war developments between the world's two largest economies, especially after a US Trade Representative spokesperson denied a report, saying that another round of US tariffs on Chinese imports has been put on hold. The global flight to safety was evident from declining US Treasury bond yields, which coupled with a subdued US Dollar price action, further weighed down by not so hawkish comments by FOMC members, provided an additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity and remained supportive of the ongoing positive momentum.  Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden spike over the past hour or so could further be attributed to some technical buying on a sustained trade above 100-day SMA. It, however, remains to be seen if the up-move is backed by some genuine buying or is solely led by short-covering above the $1216-17 strong horizontal zone. Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is now pegged near the $1226-27 region, above which the commodity is likely to aim towards challenging the $1233-34 heavy supply zone. On the flip side, the $1217-16 area now becomes immediate support and is closely followed by the $1214-13 region (100-DMA), which if broken might drag the metal back towards $1209 horizontal support.
 

Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that the NZD was the top performing G10 currency over the past month (actually since early July)

Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that the NZD was the top performing G10 currency over the past month (actually since early July) by a large margin, which Westpac attribute to a solid economic data pulse, RBNZ shift from dovish to neutral, and extremely short positioning.Key Quotes“The good economic news is likely to persist over the next month, as housing has been temporarily lifted by lower mortgage rates. That should feed into strong consumption data, and possibly the Q3 GDP release in Dec.” “We expect 0.6850 to be tested, a break of which would signal a move to 0.6900.”  

Additional comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan continue to cross the wires as he speaks on Fox Business. Fed’s job is set to policy in

Additional comments from Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan continue to cross the wires as he speaks on Fox Business. Fed’s job is set to policy in apolitical way. Going to avoid pre-determining rate moves. Fed might have some further rate moves to go. Inflation pressures are building, not running away.

Additional comments from the Federal Reserve's new Vice Chairman Richard Clarida continue to cross the wires as he speaks on CNBC. We have seen bot

Additional comments from the Federal Reserve's new Vice Chairman Richard Clarida continue to cross the wires as he speaks on CNBC. We have seen bottom on productivity growth, he is an optimistic of outlook. Here is still some room to run in labour market. I don’t’ expect a big pickup in inflation next year. We’re certainly not at neutral yet.

In an interview with Fox Business, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that the increasing debt to GDP ratio has become a tailwind now. "The U.S.

In an interview with Fox Business, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that the increasing debt to GDP ratio has become a tailwind now. "The U.S. needs to moderate the growth of the government debt," Kaplan added.

"I would not agree that Fed rate hikes are going too far or too fast," the Federal Reserve's new Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said in an interview wi

"I would not agree that Fed rate hikes are going too far or too fast," the Federal Reserve's new Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said in an interview with CNBC.Key quotesWill set policy to meet Congressional goals. Gradual policy approach has served the Fed well. Policy rate is barely above inflation rate. Fed needs to be data dependent. Fed policy getting close to vicinity of neutral. Being at neutral would make sense. Some evidence of global slowing. Fed has to factor global slowing in global outlook.

"Foreign investment in Canadian securities totalled $7.7 billion in September, mainly acquisitions of money market instruments," Statistics Canada rep

"Foreign investment in Canadian securities totalled $7.7 billion in September, mainly acquisitions of money market instruments," Statistics Canada reported on Friday. Key takeaways from the press releaseAt the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities resumed to reach $10.6 billion, led by purchases of non-US instruments. As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net outflow of funds of $2.9 billion from the Canadian economy in September. For the third quarter, portfolio investment generated a net inflow of funds in the economy of $2.4 billion, the lowest in nearly three years.

Canada Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities: $10.59B (September) vs $-0.19B

Canada Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities: $7.7B (September) vs $2.82B

In view of Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, a busy week of domestic data has strengthened AUD’s fundamental support as Australian business co

In view of Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, a busy week of domestic data has strengthened AUD’s fundamental support as Australian business conditions remain consistent with solid expansion, consumer sentiment rose 2.8% in Nov and most importantly, key readings from the labour market were positive.Key Quotes“Wages growth remains soft by pre-GFC standards but is at least trending away from inflation (2.3% vs 1.9%). This matched market expectations but the 33k bounce in jobs that kept the unemployment rate at 5.0% was a positive surprise.” “Market pricing for an RBA rate hike by Nov 2019 ticked above 70% and the quiet calendar near term should leave the positive local vibe intact. Commodity prices have softened but remain well above July lows.” “We retain a positive weekly bias but whether AUD/USD can extend towards 0.7350 and beyond probably depends on the latest US-China trade headlines.”                                      

Below are some key takeaways from the keynote speech delivered by Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and ECB board member, at the Eur

Below are some key takeaways from the keynote speech delivered by Jens Weidmann, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and ECB board member, at the European Banking Congress. Monetary policy should be effective in reaching the inflation mandate, leave enough room for market activity. He sees no reason to depart from the pre-crisis monetary policy framework. Lean balance sheet would help future crisis response. ECB should change toolbox only after normalization. Current ECB policy space is rather limited.

   •  UK political headlines continue to influence sentiment surrounding the British Pound.    •  Speculations of a no-confidence vote on Tuesday mig

   •  UK political headlines continue to influence sentiment surrounding the British Pound.
   •  Speculations of a no-confidence vote on Tuesday might keep a lid on any strong up-move.
The GBP/USD pair quickly recovered around 30-40 pips from an early European session dip sub-1.2800 level and spiked to fresh session tops, around mid-1.2800s in the last minute.  After yesterday's sudden collapse, triggered the latest UK political turmoil, the pair attempted a modest recovery on Friday but met with some aggressive supply, dragging the pair to an intraday low level of 1.2776 on news that the no-confidence motion against the UK PM Theresa May was underway. Bearish traders, however, failed to regain dominant position and the pair quickly jumped back above the 1.2800 handle after the UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove extended support to the UK PM, saying that he has confidence in Theresa May and was looking forward to staying in the Cabinet. Despite a good two-way price action, the pair struggled for a firm direction amid speculations that Brexiteers are preparing for a no-confidence vote in the PM on Tuesday as the threshold of 48 letters of the no-confidence vote in Theresa May might have been already reached.  With the UK political/Brexit headlines turning out to be an exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the British Pound, a subdued US Dollar price action did little to influence the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week amid absent relevant market moving economic releases.Technical levels to watchMario Blascak, FXStreet's own European Chief Analyst writes, “the golden cross of a 50-day moving average crossing over a 100-day moving average to the upside was formed on a daily chart indicating final trend reversal targeting 1.3060 before moving to 1.3380 and 1.3460 important Fibonacci level. Failure of Brexit deal to materialize should see GBP/USD fall towards 1.2660 first before testing 1.2100, the post Brexit referendum low before the upward correction started back in March 2017.”
 

Euroskeptic Lawmaker Baker crossed the wires in the last hour saying "We are probably not far off for enough letters to trigger leadership challenge,"

Euroskeptic Lawmaker Baker crossed the wires in the last hour saying "We are probably not far off for enough letters to trigger leadership challenge," as reported by LiveSquawk. Moreover, British Prime Minister May's deputy said that what is on offer was better than what Canada and South Korea had and added that PM May would win if a no-confidence vote was triggered.

Russia Industrial Output above expectations (2.7%) in October: Actual (3.7%)

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that in their view is that this is going to go down to the wire – British MPs feel tha

James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that in their view is that this is going to go down to the wire – British MPs feel that there are several months before the “hard” deadline in March 2019 and as such there is no impending pressure to get a deal done right now.Key Quotes“There is no majority in the House of Commons for a “no-deal” Brexit and that is why the most likely route of success is to put a simple choice of the UK leaving without a deal or the UK progressing into a smooth transitional arrangement as late as possible to help focus minds. This is obviously at odds with the EU timetable and will anger EU leaders, but it is difficult to see much of an alternative at this stage.” “This will be economically damaging for everyone due to the uncertainty and worry it causes for businesses and individuals, but it will be the UK that is hit hardest. Some notable manufacturers in the UK are already warning of plant shutdowns over the Brexit period and others are likely to follow suit. After all, there is a very real fear that components could be trapped on motorways as ports grind to a halt under the burden of customs and regulatory checks at a time when there aren’t enough qualified staff available to deal with it.” “There are also warnings of food and medicine shortages. The UK only produces 60% of the food it consumes and there are major questions over what will happen in supermarkets. Hungry voters tend to be quite angry voters and MPs will not want to risk the wrath of the electorate. As such, we keep coming back to the point that the most likely scenario remains we get an 11th hour deal to allow the UK to go into a transitional arrangement that effectively keeps things as they are until December 2020.”                  

Prices of the barrel of WTI are trading on an upbeat tone at the end of the week, managing to regain the $57.00 mark and beyond for the time being. W

The barrel of WTI is prolonging the recovery beyond the $57.00 mark.EIA’s reported a 10.3M barrels build on Thursday, more than expected.US oil rig count by Baker Hughes is next on the calendar.Prices of the barrel of WTI are trading on an upbeat tone at the end of the week, managing to regain the $57.00 mark and beyond for the time being.WTI now looks to dataCrude oil prices are retreating for the sixth consecutive week so far, shedding almost 30% since 2018 peaks recorded in early October further north of the $77.00 mark per barrel. After recording fresh 2018 lows at $54.76 on Tuesday, the barrel of WTI is slowly recovering part of the ground lost on rising hopes that the OPEC+ agrees another round of oil output cuts at its next meeting later in the month. However, cautiousness among traders remains well and sound and is somewhat moderating any bullish attempts, particularly after another record in US oil production and the largest weekly build in stockpiles in the last 21-months, as per the latest report by the EIA yesterday. Looking ahead, and closing the weekly calendar, driller Baker Hughes will publish its report on the US drilling activity.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 1.04% at $57.16 and a breakout of $59.08 (10-day SMA) would open the door to $62.88 (21-day SMA) and finally $67.85 (high Oct.29). On the downside, immediate support emerges at $54.76 (2018 low Nov.14) seconded by $54.54 (monthly high Sep.28 2017) and then $48.92 (monthly low Oct.6 2017).

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, suggests that the CAD continues to underwhelm despite notable ongoing rise in yield support again

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, suggests that the CAD continues to underwhelm despite notable ongoing rise in yield support against key peer currencies.Key Quotes“The sharp decline in energy prices and sudden doubts about the passage of the revised NAFTA deal through a Democrat led Congress are the latest source of angst for the currency.” “Democrat demands for stronger enforcement mechanisms for labour and  the environment can be assuaged and shouldn’t upend the deal, though it casts doubt on the prospects for a signing ceremony at the end of this month.” “The allure of the 2nd highest 2yr yields in the G10 should limit USD/CAD upside potential to no more than 1.3400, key resistance at the 2018 highs. Moreover, markets remain complacent on the BoC’s determination to normalise. BoC staff estimates of neutral imply +125bp in BoC hikes versus market pricing for +70bp through to Dec-2019.”                          

   •  The pair struggled to extend its steady recovery from YTD lows, alongside an ascending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart, further be

   •  The pair struggled to extend its steady recovery from YTD lows, alongside an ascending trend-channel formation on the 1-hourly chart, further beyond 200-hour SMA.   •  The said channel, against the backdrop of the recent decline, seemed to constitute towards the formation of a bearish continuation - Flag chart pattern on the mentioned chart.    •  Technical indicators on hourly charts have also started drifting into negative territory and indicated that the recent corrective bounce might have already started losing steam.    •  A convincing break below the flag chart pattern, currently near the 1.1300 handle, will reinforce the outlook and turn the pair vulnerable to resume with its prior bearish trend.
 EUR/USD 1-hourly chartEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.133
    Daily change: -2.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0176%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466  

DXY daily chart                           Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Last Price: 97     Daily change: -9.0 pips     Daily ch

The index is prolonging the choppy trade so far this week and continues to navigate the 97.00 neighbourhood with moderate support in the 96.80 area, where converges the 10-day SMA.In case the selling impetus picks up pace, the 21-day SMA at 96.60 should offer interim contention ahead of the more relevant 95.68, monthly lows so far.Furthermore, the constructive bias is poised to persists as long as the short-term support line at 96.09 holds.DXY daily chart                          Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Last Price: 97
    Daily change: -9.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0927%
    Daily Open: 97.09
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.6
    Daily SMA50: 95.68
    Daily SMA100: 95.36
    Daily SMA200: 93.5
Levels:
    Daily High: 97.39
    Daily Low: 96.76
    Weekly High: 97.01
    Weekly Low: 95.68
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 97.15
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.77
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.45
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.14
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 97.4
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.71
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 98.03  

The UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox, when asked if he wants to become Brexit Secretary, refused to make speculation on that. He further added that a no-de

The UK Trade Secretary Liam Fox, when asked if he wants to become Brexit Secretary, refused to make speculation on that. He further added that a no-deal could happen but it will be unfortunate if it did and took the view that you stick to the collective agreement reached in Cabinet.Additional quotes:   •  We need to focus on negotiations that are not complete. 
   •  Agree with Gove, what we need now is stability. 

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the release of manufacturing sales data will be key economic release for today’s Canadian session. Key Quotes

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the release of manufacturing sales data will be key economic release for today’s Canadian session.Key Quotes“TD looks for manufacturing sales to rise by 0.4% in September (market: 0.1%) on a rebound in motor vehicles after shutdowns drove an 8% pullback during August. Sales should see a more modest increase on a volumes basis owing to higher factory prices.”

The renewed soft tone around the shared currency is now forcing EUR/GBP to recede to fresh daily lows in the 0.8850 area. EUR/GBP focused on Brexit

The European cross stays weak in the mid-0.8800s on Friday.Brexit jitters keep the Sterling under pressure so far.May’s no-confidence vote scheduled for Tuesday.The renewed soft tone around the shared currency is now forcing EUR/GBP to recede to fresh daily lows in the 0.8850 area.EUR/GBP focused on BrexitThe now selling bias around EUR in combination with the sideline theme surrounding the British Pound today is collaborating with the current knee jerk in the cross, which comes down after yesterday’s sharp rebound to the vicinity of 0.8900 the figure. In the meantime, Brexit remains the sole catalyst for the price action around the Sterling for the time being, where latest news said a no-confidence motion against PM Theresa May is scheduled for Tuesday. The Sterling retreated sharply on Thursday following an almost generalized disagreement on May’s draft deal, where several members of her Cabinet resigned, including Brexit minister D.Raab.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is now losing 0.36% at 0.8838 and a breach of 0.8799 (21-day SMA) would aim for 0.8746 (10-day SMA) and finally 0.8655 (low Nov.13). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 0.8889 (high Nov.15) seconded by 0.8941 (high Oct.31) and then 0.9001 (high Sep.24).

   •  The pair's overnight strong upsurge failed to make it through a confluence resistance - comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement

   •  The pair's overnight strong upsurge failed to make it through a confluence resistance - comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.9099-0.8656 recent downfall.   •  The cross started correcting from 2-1/2 week tops, albeit the downside remained limited and found some support near another confluence region - 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.    •  Technical indicators on the daily chart are yet to catch-up with the strong bullish momentum and have been correcting from near-term oversold conditions on the hourly charts.   •  A combination of diverging indicators suggests that the cross seems more likely to oscillate between the two important moving averages and consolidate overnight strong upsurge.
 EUR/GBP daily chartEUR/GBP Overview:
    Last Price: 0.8843
    Daily change: -26 pips
    Daily change: -0.293%
    Daily Open: 0.8869
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.8798
    Daily SMA50: 0.8835
    Daily SMA100: 0.8881
    Daily SMA200: 0.8835
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.8892
    Daily Low: 0.8696
    Weekly High: 0.8774
    Weekly Low: 0.869
    Monthly High: 0.8942
    Monthly Low: 0.8722
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8817
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8771
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8746
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8623
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8551
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8942
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.9014
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.9137  

Analysts at Nomura expect a soft 0.1% m-o-m increase in the US industrial production in October, following a 0.3% advance in September. Key Quotes “

Analysts at Nomura expect a soft 0.1% m-o-m increase in the US industrial production in October, following a 0.3% advance in September.Key Quotes“The aggregate production in October was likely weighed down by a sharp pullback in autos production. Excluding autos, manufacturing sector output likely increased at a steady pace of around 0.3% in October after rising by only a modest 0.1% in September.” “Steady gains in exautos manufacturing output appear consistent with the healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector. The mining sector output will likely contribute steadily to aggregate output in October. Active oil and gas rig counts picked up in October, pointing to healthy drilling activity.”    

India FX Reserves, USD declined to $393.01B from previous $393.13B

According to analysts at TD Securities, in the US session the focus will be on the release of manufacturing and industrial production data. Key Quote

According to analysts at TD Securities, in the US session the focus will be on the release of manufacturing and industrial production data.Key Quotes“The market looks for industrial production to rise by 0.2% in October, which if realized would be the softest pace of growth since May.” “Manufacturing production is also expected to increase by 0.2% while capacity utilization is projected to edge higher to 78.2%.”  

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the final Euro-area HICP release confirms the flash estimates of 1.1% y/y core and 2.2% y/y headline inflatio

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the final Euro-area HICP release confirms the flash estimates of 1.1% y/y core and 2.2% y/y headline inflation in October.Key Quotes“Supercore inflation – which only includes those core prices that are sensitive to the business cycle and make up the approximate half of the core prices – increased to 1.5% y/y in October from 1.2% y/y in September.” “The increase is due to base effects from the lowering of Italian education prices a year ago as well as package holiday prices. In momentum terms, supercore picked up on the month in October, but has weakened over the last three months. Momentum is still weak, but the trend is up.” “The weak core inflation numbers and recent decline in the oil price, however, mean that the revisions to the ECB's inflation projections in December are going to be negative.” “We stick with 1.1% y/y as the preliminary forecast for core inflation in November.”

The UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove extended support to the UK PM, saying that he has confidence in Theresa May and was looking forward to stayi

The UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove extended support to the UK PM, saying that he has confidence in Theresa May and was looking forward to staying in the Cabinet.Additional quotes:   •  Looking forward to working with colleagues in the government. 
   •  Important to get the right deal, good outcome. 

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.7%) in October

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets expectations (0.2%) in October

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.6%) in October

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0%) in October

EUR/JPY daily chart                                   EUR/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 128.4     Daily change: -30 pips     

After three consecutive daily advances, EUR/JPY has now moved back to the negative territory and is navigating the low 128.00s, facing the likelihood of a deeper retracement.Immediate target to the downside emerges at last week’s lows in the mid-127.00s ahead of August’s trough in the 124.90/85 band.On the other hand, occasional bullish attempts meet initial hurdle at the 129.00 neighbourhood, coincident with recent tops and the base of the daily cloud.So far, the stance on the cross remains offered while below the short-term resistance line, today at 129.44.EUR/JPY daily chart                                  EUR/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 128.4
    Daily change: -30 pips
    Daily change: -0.233%
    Daily Open: 128.7
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.65
    Daily SMA50: 129.85
    Daily SMA100: 129.54
    Daily SMA200: 130.08
Levels:
    Daily High: 129.07
    Daily Low: 127.76
    Weekly High: 130.16
    Weekly Low: 128.6
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 128.57
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 128.27
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 127.95
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 127.2
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 126.64
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 129.26
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 129.82
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.57  

Bundesbank board member Wuermeilinmg, speaking to Bloomberg this Friday, said that the Germany economy will pick up in 4Q and there is no sign in the

Bundesbank board member Wuermeilinmg, speaking to Bloomberg this Friday, said that the Germany economy will pick up in 4Q and there is no sign in the economy pointing to a dramatic downturn.

According to the latest headlines floating on the wires, via The Telegraph, Brexiteers expected a no-confidence vote in the PM on Tuesday and were als

According to the latest headlines floating on the wires, via The Telegraph, Brexiteers expected a no-confidence vote in the PM on Tuesday and were also noted saying that the threshold of 48 letters of the no-confidence vote in Theresa May will be reached later today. The news, however, did little to prompt any fresh selling around the British Pound, with the GBP/USD pair still holding with modest recovery gains above the 1.2800 round figure mark.
 

Sacha Tihanyi, Deputy Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, Banxico hiked by 25bps yesterday and the statement highlighted the very nega

Sacha Tihanyi, Deputy Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, Banxico hiked by 25bps yesterday and the statement highlighted the very negative impact of the Texcoco airport cancelation on MXN and the country's sovereign risk profile, which Banxico feels could affect the Mexico's macroeconomic conditions in the medium and longer term.Key Quotes“Banxico highlighted the persistence in core inflation, and the increase in headline inflation expectations, the two key drivers of our view for a hike at this meeting.” “We take this communication as an indication that Banxico will continue to strengthen its monetary policy settings at the December meeting with a 25bp hike, unless a substantial improvement in inflation is achieved (which would be surprising), or the Mexican government sends a positive signal to markets and foreign investors, effectively eliminating the uncertainty created by the Texcoco cancelation. This is highly unlikely in our view, however.”  

Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, points out that Japanese investors bought foreign bonds aggressively last week ($14.3bn) even though Japanese

Yujiro Goto, Research Analyst at Nomura, points out that Japanese investors bought foreign bonds aggressively last week ($14.3bn) even though Japanese investment in foreign bonds has slowed several times so far this fiscal year, when financial market volatility rose.Key Quotes“Nonetheless, the total amount of foreign bonds purchased so far this fiscal year has reached JPY8.6trn ($78bn), a larger amount than the previous 5yr average. Recently, it has been clear Japanese investors prefer European bonds to US bonds.” “Higher FX hedging costs for USD assets has clearly encouraged Japanese investors to purchase more EGBs than USTs. However, the latest BoP data for September showed Japanese investors bought JPY2.5trn ($22.5bn) of US LT bonds, of which JPY2.3trn was invested in US LT sovereign bonds.” “Their purchases of US LT sovereign bonds in September were the largest net monthly purchases since July 2016, even though FX hedging costs remained elevated in September.”

Michael Hanson, Head of Global Macro Strategy at TD Securities, points out that speaking at the Dallas Fed, Chair Powell faced a range of questions an

Michael Hanson, Head of Global Macro Strategy at TD Securities, points out that speaking at the Dallas Fed, Chair Powell faced a range of questions and largely reiterated his past views on the economy and policy.Key Quotes“Overall, Powell gave no explicit indication that the Fed was planning to slow the pace of rate hikes or pause. He did note that he found the recent slowdown in global growth "concerning," even as it had only slowed "a bit." Meanwhile the US economy "is in such a good place right now" in his view. Powell also reiterated that Fed was trying to lengthen the expansion rather than take away the punchbowl.” “Although Powell had many opportunities to lean toward a more cautious policy stance, he largely stuck to his guns. When asked specifically about various risks to the outlook, Powell mostly just said that the Fed was "monitoring" them. To the extent the markets were looking for signals of a less aggressive Fed, Powell's remarks mostly disappointed. This gave a mildly hawkish tone to the evening.”

The European Union (EU) Ambassadors concluded today’s Brexit meeting, with the EU Brexit schedule now agreed is noted below. - Sunday Nov, 25th - sp

The European Union (EU) Ambassadors concluded today’s Brexit meeting, with the EU Brexit schedule now agreed is noted below. - Sunday Nov, 25th - special Brexit meeting EU27 ambassadors. - Monday, Nov 26th - special Brexit EU27 Europe ministers. Wheels in motion for Sunday, November 25th Brexit summit.

After climbing to session tops beyond 1.1360, EUR/USD has now met some selling impetus and is returning to the 1.1335/30 band. EUR/USD looks to Brexi

The pair loses the grip and returns to the 1.1330 region.EMU’s final CPI matched expectations in October.Markets’ attention remains on Brexit, US data.After climbing to session tops beyond 1.1360, EUR/USD has now met some selling impetus and is returning to the 1.1335/30 band.EUR/USD looks to Brexit, dataThe pair is now receding from earlier tops after final inflation figures in Euroland left no room for surprises, advancing in line with the preliminary readings at 2.2% YoY, while Core prices rose at an annualized 1.1%. All the attention in Europe remains on the Brexit negotiation following the chaotic session on Thursday, while a confidence motion against PM Theresa May is said to be underway. Earlier in the session, ECB’s Mario Draghi said that inflation in the region still needs to show a convincing trend, while the current soft patch in the bloc should be temporary. Moving forward, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the month of October is due along with a speech by Chicago Fed C.Evans (2019 voter, dovish).EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.04% at 1.1333 facing the next hurdle at 1.1376 (21-day SMA) seconded by 1.1502 (high Nov.7) and then 1.1519 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1214 (2018 low Nov.12) would target 1.1188 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 up move) en route to 1.1118 (low Jun.20 2017).

Italy Global Trade Balance below expectations (€2.87B) in September: Actual (€1.274B)

Italy Trade Balance EU increased to €1.183B in September from previous €0.817B

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in October

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) in line with expectations (1.1%) in October

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (2.2%) in October

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in October

The USD bulls staged a solid comeback amid a renewed risk-aversion wave that the gripped the European markets amid fresh UK political concerns, liftin

UK leadership challenge triggers risk-off, boosting the demand for the USD. Headed back towards Thursday”s low at 0.7232 ahead of US industrial figures.The USD bulls staged a solid comeback amid a renewed risk-aversion wave that the gripped the European markets amid fresh UK political concerns, lifting the safe-haven US dollar at the expense of the higher-yielding Aussie.AUD/USD: Bears taking back chargeThe latest reports of the leadership challenge underway against the UK PM Theresa May added to ongoing concerns over a potential disorderly Brexit and spooked markets, with the European equities quickly paring back early gains, as the risk assets take a hit. As a result, the Aussie is seen heading back for a test of yesterday’s low reached at 0.7232 levels while the US dollar index bounces back to 96.95, having posted daily lows at 96.77. Despite the latest leg down, the OZ currency remains supported by solid Australian employment data, with markets now expecting an RBA rate hike by mid-2019. Attention now turns towards the sentiment on the Wall Street and the US industrial production release for fresh trading impetus on the Aussie dollar.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7258
    Daily change: -21 pips
    Daily change: -0.289%
    Daily Open: 0.7279
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7163
    Daily SMA50: 0.7163
    Daily SMA100: 0.7257
    Daily SMA200: 0.7456
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.73
    Daily Low: 0.7226
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7272
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7255
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7237
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7195
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7164
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7311
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7342
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7384  

EUR/USD daily chart                         EUR/USD Overview:     Last Price: 1.1353     Daily change: 21 pips     Daily change: 0

The pair is extending the recovery from Monday’s fresh 2018 lows near 1.1210, gaining more than a cent and now challenging 1.1376, where emerges the 21-day SMA.In spite of the current rebound, EUR/USD remains under pressure while below the short-term resistance line, today at 1.1432, That said, a re-visit to the 1.1200 neighbourhood stays in the pipeline for the time being.More sustainable gains should come on a surpass of the resistance line (1.1432) and last week’s tops in the critical 1.1500 neighbourhoodEUR/USD daily chart                        EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1353
    Daily change: 21 pips
    Daily change: 0.185%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466  

The GBP bulls are offered some reprieve, as the UK media quotes two sources, as saying that Michael Gove is said to have decided to have stayed on. T

The GBP bulls are offered some reprieve, as the UK media quotes two sources, as saying that Michael Gove is said to have decided to have stayed on. The sources said: “Michael is staying at Defra. He thinks it is important to continue working with Cabinet colleagues to ensure the best outcome for the country.” GBP/USD jumped back to 1.2820 on the above headlines, before losing the steam to now trade just ahead of the 1.28 handlle.

   •  Recovering oil prices underpinning Loonie and exerts some follow-through downward pressure.    •  Subdued USD price action does little to lend

   •  Recovering oil prices underpinning Loonie and exerts some follow-through downward pressure.
   •  Subdued USD price action does little to lend any support or stall the ongoing corrective slide.
   •  Today’s second-tier Canadian/US economic data will now be looked for some trading impetus.
The USD/CAD pair remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Friday and dropped to fresh weekly lows in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. A strong follow-through up-move in crude oil prices, which tend to underpin demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie, turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the major.  Expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which meets on Dec. 6 in Vienna for its policy-setting meeting, will agree on cuts of around 1 million bpd or more remained supportive of the oil rebound over the past two days. Meanwhile, the US Dollar failed to capitalize on overnight up-move, triggered by the latest UK political turmoil and held on the defensive through the early European session on Friday, which eventually did little to lend any support to the major. The pair extended its retracement slide from near four-month tops, levels just above mid-1.3200s touched on Wednesday, but now seems to have found some support near mid-1.3100s ahead of the second-tier economic releases from the US and Canada. Today's economic docket features the release of monthly Manufacturing Sales data from Canada, which coupled with industrial production data and capacity utilization rate from the US might provide some short-term impetus on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchOn a sustained break below mid-1.3100s, the pair is likely to accelerate the fall towards 1.3110 intermediate support en-route the 1.3085 region. On the flip side, the 1.3200 handle is likely to act as an immediate resistance, above which the pair is likely to aim towards decisively breaking through the 1.3250-60 heavy supply zone.
 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a basket of its main rivals, is extending the choppy trade so far this week and is now hovering o

The index remains on the defensive below the 97.00 mark.Yields of the US 10-year note appear sidelined around 3.11%.US Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization next on tap.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a basket of its main rivals, is extending the choppy trade so far this week and is now hovering over the 96.80 region.US Dollar Index looks to Brexit, dataThe index is reverting yesterday’s advance and remains on a cautious stance close to the 97.00 mark amidst confusing headlines from the Brexit negotiations and uncertainty around the future of PM Theresa May. In fact, alternating trends in the risk-associated space stay in direct correlation with developments on the EU-UK front and Italian politics, all in turn affecting the performance around the buck. In addition, the index remains vulnerable to the recent optimism around the US-China trade dispute ahead of the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 gathering later in the month. Later in the NA session, October’s Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization area due along with the speech by Chicago Fed C.Evans (2019 voter, dovish).US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is losing 0.17% at 96.93 facing the next support at 96.79 (10-day SMA) followed by 96.75 (low Nov.14) and finally 96.60 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, a breakout of 97.69 (2018 high Nov.12) would open the door to 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017).

The GBP sellers returned to the markets following the UK PM Theresa May’s radio appearance and on fresh UK political headlines, sending the GBP/USD pa

Sorry state of UK politics over the Brexit deal continues to cap the upside. Remains vulnerable amid no-confidence vote and ahead of US data.The GBP sellers returned to the markets following the UK PM Theresa May’s radio appearance and on fresh UK political headlines, sending the GBP/USD pair back below the 1.28 handleUK: Vote of no confidence? – Deutsche BankThe Cable stalled its steady recovery mode and reversed sharply last hour after the upbeat comments by the UK PM Theresa May left the bulls unimpressed, as her cabinet still remains in the Limbo, with no Brexit Secretary appointed as yet and markets wary whether she would stand the no-confidence vote, now underway, as a Conservative party leader. The UK political storm will continue to weigh negatively on the domestic currency, with every bounce likely to be sold-off, as a no-deal Brexit appears to be the most likely scenario the UK is headed for. Further, Thursday’s awful UK retail sales data combined with the money markets pricing out a 2019 BOE rate hike also remains a GBP-negative. However, the losses remain capped so far amid a better tone seen on the European equities and a broadly lower US dollar, as the focus now shifts towards the US industrial output data due later in the NA session. In the meantime, the Brexit-related headlines will continue to remain the exclusive drivers for the spot.GBP/USD Technical LevelsGBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.2792
    Daily change: 14 pips
    Daily change: 0.110%
    Daily Open: 1.2778
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2934
    Daily SMA50: 1.3033
    Daily SMA100: 1.3023
    Daily SMA200: 1.3379
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3032
    Daily Low: 1.2724
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2841
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2914
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2537
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.235
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2965
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3152
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3273  

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING, points out that the ECB president Mario Draghi just confirmed the bank's determination to end quantitative ea

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING, points out that the ECB president Mario Draghi just confirmed the bank's determination to end quantitative easing, but opened the door for a long period of low interest rates.Key Quotes“He confirmed the ECB’s previous take, arguing in favour of a soft patch and pointing to several one-off factors. At the same time, however, Draghi stressed that some temporary factors could become long-lasting, ie trade tensions and external uncertainty. In sum, Draghi is still betting on domestic demand, the strong labour market and investment, to support the eurozone recovery in the coming months.” “Turning to inflation, Draghi pointed to satisfying wage growth but emphasised that the pass-through from higher wages to higher inflation was still hardly visible and that uncertainties surrounding the medium-term outlook had increased.” “Against all of the above, Draghi slightly changed the well-known ECB communication. While there is still a strong determination to end the net-QE purchases by the end of the year, Draghi opened the door for changes to the forward guidance in the course of 2019.” “It is too early to read any real changes in the ECB’s anticipated path for monetary policy beyond the end of the net-QE purchases. However, Draghi at least just sent a clear signal of the ECB’s willingness to err on the side of caution when it comes to the first rate hike.”

Open interest in JPY futures markets rose by around 3.7K contracts yesterday from Wednesday’s final 232,043 contracts, according to flash data from CM

Open interest in JPY futures markets rose by around 3.7K contracts yesterday from Wednesday’s final 232,043 contracts, according to flash data from CME Group. Volume, instead, rose by more than 24.4K contracts, recording the third build in a row.USD/JPY room for a test of 113.00USD/JPY continues its leg lower at the end of the week, posting losses in the last five sessions amidst increasing volume and somewhat choppy activity in open interest, all pointing to a potential test of the 113.00 neighbourhood, where aligns the 21-day SMA.

Germany 30-y Bond Auction remains unchanged at 1.04%

Brexit Central editor cites an "always previously reliable" source, as saying that the no-confidence motion against the UK PM Theresa May is said to b

Brexit Central editor cites an "always previously reliable" source, as saying that the no-confidence motion against the UK PM Theresa May is said to be underway. The Cable quickly reversed 40-pips on the above headlines, now trading near 1.2780 levels, almost unchanged on the day.

Joachim Bernhardsen, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the EURNOK has climbed to above 9,60 and they see the risk of further weakening in

Joachim Bernhardsen, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the EURNOK has climbed to above 9,60 and they see the risk of further weakening in the short term.Key Quotes“The correlation to the oil price has been on and off over the last couple of year, but through 2018 the two seems to have recoupled. And Brent at USD 65/bbl undoubtedly calls for more upside in the cross.” “The drop in oil price coupled with outlook for a weaker housing market and what usually is a bad time of the year for the NOK could be a toxic mix. Although the Q4 seasonality in the NOK often is exaggerated, as both the weakness in 2014 and 2015 is explained by a drop in the oil price rather than seasonality, it is a fact that foreign accounts build down their NOK exposure towards the end of the year. Looking at the last five yearsnet NOK purchases tend to drop towards year-end and has always been negative in December.”

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that for the US, data has been light but broadly supportive of the ongoing robust, non-inflatio

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, points out that for the US, data has been light but broadly supportive of the ongoing robust, non-inflationary uptrend in activity continuing, with the CPI benign in October (annual core inflation at 2.1%yr) as retail sales beat expectations (0.8%).Key Quotes“Admittedly retail sales were bolstered by Hurricane season replacement spending in October and higher oil prices in the month, but underlying momentum remained robust.” “Chair Powell again showed confidence in the US economy and the outlook this week despite weakening residential investment and uncertainty over the lasting benefit of fiscal policy to growth.” “Recent market volatility is not a material concern, nor are global risks and trade tensions. But all are being watched closely. The move to hold a press conference after every FOMC meeting and to review “strategies, tools and communication practices” highlight a desire by Chair Powell and the Committee to be more nimble as this cycle matures.”  

Brexit Central editor cites an "always previously reliable" source, as saying that the no-confidence motion against the UK PM Theresa May is said to b

Brexit Central editor cites an "always previously reliable" source, as saying that the no-confidence motion against the UK PM Theresa May is said to be underway. The Cable quickly reversed 40-pips on the above headlines, now trading near 1.2780 levels, almost unchanged on the day.

Italy Industrial Orders s.a (MoM) down to -2.9% in September from previous 4.9%

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) dipped from previous 1.2% to 0% in September

Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) up to 3.9% in September from previous 3.2%

Italy Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY) declined to -0.9% in September from previous 0.9%

   •  The latest UK political turmoil kept the GBP bulls on the defensive.    •  PM May remains firm on her position and defends her Brexit plan.  

   •  The latest UK political turmoil kept the GBP bulls on the defensive.
   •  PM May remains firm on her position and defends her Brexit plan.
   •  Increasing prospects for May's leadership challenge likely to cap gains.
The GBP/JPY cross was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, around the key 145.00 psychological mark, and consolidating overnight slump to two-week lows. The latest political turmoil in the UK rattled the British Pound and prompted some aggressive selling on Thursday. The cross tanked over 350-pips from the 148.00 neighborhood in a knee-jerk reaction to the UK Brexit minister Dominic Raab's resignation, which was followed by several other ministers and ministerial aides.  Adding to this, letters calling for a no-confidence vote made it worst for the British Pound and dragged the cross to an intraday low level of 144.25. The selling pressure abated after the UK PM Theresa May stood firm on her position and defended her Brexit plan, helping the cross to witness a modest rebound from daily lows. The attempted recovery, however, seemed lacking strong conviction/follow-through, albeit was supported by May's comments in the last hour, saying that the Brexit deal maintains the integrity of the UK and believed that we got a good deal with the EU.  However, with May's leadership challenge expected to happen quickly, possibly overlapping the special EU Brexit summit on November 25, any further up-move seems more likely to be utilized as an opportunity to initiate some fresh selling positions. Technical levels to watchThe 145.45-50 region is likely to act as an immediate resistance, above which a bout of short-covering could lift the cross further towards reclaiming the 146.00 handle. The 144.85-80 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken might turn the cross vulnerable to head back towards overnight swing lows, around the 144.25 level, en-route the 144.00 round figure mark.
 

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, all eyes now are on whether or not we’ll get a vote of no confidence for PM May. Key Quotes “The remarkable

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, all eyes now are on whether or not we’ll get a vote of no confidence for PM May.Key Quotes“The remarkable 3 hour Parliamentary session yesterday left you feeling in no uncertain terms that the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is highly unlikely to pass in its current form. However, before we even get there, the leadership challenge is the next hurdle.” “Overnight, the Telegraph reported that the DUP will scrap its coalition with the Conservatives unless/until PM May is replaced. This would be materially negative news for the embattled PM and for markets, but the pound traded flat amid thin overnight liquidity.” “The last twenty four hours have illustrated that there is seemingly no parliamentary majority for the current WA. At the same time, there is little prospect of further negotiation with the EU27, given the limited timeline.” “There are two other options perhaps. One is a pivot towards a much softer form of Brexit – such as EEA membership plus a permanent customs union – however it’s not clear if there’s sufficient time on the EU side to agree to this. The other is a second referendum. This in itself would likely split the Tory Party although it would likely gain parliamentary support. The difficulty will be deciding what question to pose to electors. Some suggest there might be two.” “The DB house view remains that PM May is likely to stick with the current deal and attempt to weather the political storm.”  

Additional headlines crossing the wires from the ECB President Draghi, as he continues to speak at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. High debt

Additional headlines crossing the wires from the ECB President Draghi, as he continues to speak at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. High debt countries shouldn't increase debt further. All countries should respect the rules of the European Union. Increase in compensation per employee is broad-based and present across most sectors and euro area economies. Our view is that this cycle is resilient. Labor market is already showing signs of tightness. Pass-through of wage growth to prices remains relatively muted. ECB intends to end net asset purchases subject to data.

According to Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, for Europe (and the UK), Brexit has again been the focus and a brief respite from Brexit unce

According to Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, for Europe (and the UK), Brexit has again been the focus and a brief respite from Brexit uncertainty was seen mid-week as the UK Cabinet rubber stamped a transition deal agreed by UK and European negotiators.Key Quotes“Multiple ministerial resignations the day after consequently put Prime Minister May’s position and the deal in jeopardy. It is not at all clear if the current deal will remain let alone what a replacement deal might look like. Of course the final deal, whatever its terms, then has to be passed by both the UK and EU parliaments.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi is on the wires now, via Reuters, delivering the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Con

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi is on the wires now, via Reuters, delivering the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress.Key Headlines:The slowdown has raised questions about the strength of growth outlook. Recently seen a loss in growth momentum. But expects economic expansion to continue in the coming years. Forward guidance has been effective in anchoring expectations about the future path of interest rates. If conditions should tighten or if inflation outlook deteriorates, it would be reflected in an adjustment in the expected path of future interest rates. Witnessing a long-term slowdown in world trade. Anticipates that QE will come to an end in December. Still sees overall risks to the growth outlook as broadly balanced.

Hong Kong SAR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) rose from previous -0.2% to 0.1% in 3Q

Hong Kong SAR Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 2.8% in October

Hong Kong SAR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) fell from previous 3.5% to 2.9% in 3Q

Reuters reports comments by the Irish Minister Harnis, citing that the Brexit text is the best Ireland could hope for. This comes alongside the comme

Reuters reports comments by the Irish Minister Harnis, citing that the Brexit text is the best Ireland could hope for. This comes alongside the comments by the UK PM Theresa May, as she believes that the UK got a good Brexit deal with the European Union (EU).

According to preliminary figures for GBP futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose by more than 2.3K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s fi

According to preliminary figures for GBP futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose by more than 2.3K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 227,874 contracts. Volume followed suit, up by around 5K contracts, marking at the same time the fifth consecutive build.GBP/USD under pressure, eyes 1.2700 and belowCable remains under heavy pressure on Brexit concerns, which stays the exclusive catalyst of the price action. Increasing open interest and volume leaves the door open for further retracement with the next support in sub-1.2700 levels, October’s low.

Adding to her previous comments made on LBC radio, the UK PM Theresa May was further noted saying that DUP have raise concerns and we are still workin

Adding to her previous comments made on LBC radio, the UK PM Theresa May was further noted saying that DUP have raise concerns and we are still working with the DUP.Additional quotes:   •  Believes that we got a good deal with the EU
   •  Brexit deal maintains the integrity of the UK.
   •  Hoped every lawmaker looks at the need to deliver on referendum result.

The UK PM Theresa May, answering questions on LBC radio, made no comments on whether or not she offered Gove the Brexit secretary role. Key quotes:

The UK PM Theresa May, answering questions on LBC radio, made no comments on whether or not she offered Gove the Brexit secretary role.Key quotes:   •  Said had a very good conversation with Gove yesterday.
   •  Have been discussing on the fishing industry with Gove.
   •  Has not appointed a new Brexit Secretary yet, will do over coming days.
   •  Insists that the UK will be leaving the EU in March.
   •  No obligation on free movement in the backstop. 
   •  We will see an end to the free movement.

Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that despite the resignations of four ministers in the UK yesterday including Brexit secretary

Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that despite the resignations of four ministers in the UK yesterday including Brexit secretary Raab and McVey and the stepping down by a parliamentary private secretary, PM May sounded a defiant tone during her speech in parliament.Key Quotes“The stakes are high. Not only is she attempting to shore up support for her Brexit deal but she will also be looking to head off a challenge to her position.  The next few days will be crucial both in determining if there is still a chance that May can push her plan through parliament but also in defining the influence of the PM going forward.” “GBP plunged on the back of the surge of political uncertainty.” “Over the next few days the very real prospect of a hard Brexit will likely ensure that the pound remains vulnerable. Additionally any turn of events in Westminster that appears to increase the risk of a general election would likely compound the vulnerability of the pound, given the Labour party’s policies in favour of nationalisation.” “On a hard Brexit we see risk of a move towards EUR/GBP 1.00, meaning that the vote in parliament on the PM’s deal will be crucial.”

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that data released this week for China points to the investment trend having troughed. Key Quote

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that data released this week for China points to the investment trend having troughed.Key Quotes“The acceleration in activity will be slow in coming amid headwinds from ongoing structural change in the finance sector and, to a lesser extent, uncertainty associated with trade policy. On that front, murmurs of the US’ being willing to compromise with China on trade bolstered markets overnight.” “President Trump will meet President Xi at the end of the month. The hope is that this conversation can turn the tide and stop any further intensification of tensions. This would only be a starting point for negotiations however. Many hurdles must be overcome for a lasting solution to be attained.”

Austria HICP (YoY) climbed from previous 2.1% to 2.4% in October

Austria HICP (MoM) dipped from previous 1.2% to 0.5% in October

CME Group’s advanced data for EUR futures markets noted investors added nearly 5.7K contracts on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 521,343 contracts. In

CME Group’s advanced data for EUR futures markets noted investors added nearly 5.7K contracts on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 521,343 contracts. In the same line, volume rose by just 571 contracts, recording the fourth consecutive build.EUR/USD now targets 1.14 and aboveThe up move in EUR/USD was in tandem with rising open interest and volume, a bullish sign that hints at the likeliness that further upside remains on the cards for the time being. Immediate target lies at the 21-day SMA at 1.1376.

Former UK Brexit secretary, David Davis was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that the Parliament will reject Brexit deal and the UK PM

Former UK Brexit secretary, David Davis was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that the Parliament will reject Brexit deal and the UK PM Theresa May will have to renegotiate it.Key quotes:   •  EU would say they will not accept changes to Brexit deal.
   •  EU has spun this out to use time against us.
   •  Negotiations have not concluded, can still be reopened.
   •  EU has things to lose if there is a no-deal outcome.

The single currency keeps its slow but relentless march north at the end of the week, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1350/60 band ahead of the opening bell i

The pair advances to daily highs near 1.1360 on Friday.The greenback trades on the defensive below the 97.00 handle.EMU’s final CPI figures next on tap. Attention also on Brexit.The single currency keeps its slow but relentless march north at the end of the week, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1350/60 band ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.EUR/USD looks to Brexit, dataSpot is advancing since Tuesday on the back of alleviated concerns on the US-China trade front, while fresh demand for the shared currency has been also stemming from EUR/GBP and the sharp sell off in the Sterling. In fact, the greenback has been suffering the probability of a US-China trade deal, which could be announced as soon as this month when President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping meet at the G20 gathering in Argentina. While attention in the Old Continent should remain on Brexit negotiations and the future of PM Theresa May, final October inflation figures in Euroland are due today along with the speech by BuBa’s J.Weidmann. Across the pond, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the speech by Chicago Fed C.Evans is also expected.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.25% at 1.1356 facing the next hurdle at 1.1376 (21-day SMA) seconded by 1.1502 (high Nov.7) and then 1.1519 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1214 (2018 low Nov.12) would target 1.1188 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 up move) en route to 1.1118 (low Jun.20 2017).

   •  The precious metal traded with a mild positive bias for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, albeit seemed struggling to build on its posit

   •  The precious metal traded with a mild positive bias for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, albeit seemed struggling to build on its positive move beyond the $1216-17 strong resistance.    •  The mentioned hurdle, representing 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1237-$1196 recent downfall and nearing 200-hour SMA, has been capping the up-move over the past three trading session.   •  Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart are yet to catch up with the recent up-move, albeit remained supportive for a follow-through positive momentum on the hourly chart.    •  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing breakthrough the mentioned $1216-17 barrier before traders start positioning for any subsequent appreciating move in the near-term.    •  Alternatively, a rejection slide from the current resistance zone is likely to prompt some fresh weakness back towards 100-hour SMA/23.6% Fibonacci retracement level confluence support.
 Gold 1-hourly chartXAU/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1215.62
    Daily change: 2.5e+2 pips
    Daily change: 0.205%
    Daily Open: 1213.13
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1221.29
    Daily SMA50: 1213.93
    Daily SMA100: 1206.53
    Daily SMA200: 1240.11
Levels:
    Daily High: 1216.47
    Daily Low: 1207
    Weekly High: 1236.6
    Weekly Low: 1206.3
    Monthly High: 1243.43
    Monthly Low: 1182.54
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1212.85
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1210.62
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1207.93
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1202.73
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1198.46
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1217.4
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1221.67
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1226.87  

Bloomberg reports comments from the European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet, with the key quotes found below. “The recent evolution in oil

Bloomberg reports comments from the European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet, with the key quotes found below. “The recent evolution in oil prices -- if it’s sustained -- is a positive development for Europe,”  “It’s a relief” for consumers. Domestic demand in the euro area remains “robust” and the German economy, which contracted last quarter for the first time since 2015, should rebound, Praet said. He also cited data showing exports orders are “stabilizing.”

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that Australia’s labour market data provided two contrasting perspectives on Australia’s economy

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that Australia’s labour market data provided two contrasting perspectives on Australia’s economy this week as the tightening of the labour market is yet to stoke wages growth.Key Quotes“In the September quarter, the wage price index rose just 0.6% (2.3%yr) and was weaker still for the private sector at 0.5% (2.1%yr). Arguably this disconnect between wages and employment growth is in part due to considerable underemployment (those working less hours than they would like to). That said, the current level of underutilisation is historically consistent with wages growth around 2.5%yr, not the 2.1%yr currently being seen in the private sector. Herein is evidence of other factors being at play, principally globalisation; technology; and a focus on efficiency amongst large corporates.” “The enduring disconnect between wages and employment arguably is a key reason why family finance perceptions continue to lag households’ economic and labour market expectations; and now, even as family finance views are shifting to above long-run average levels, why ‘time to buy a major household item’ is at 18 month lows and spending intentions for Christmas are the weakest they have been since 2014.” “House price expectations, which are now on par with their lowest ever level back to mid-2009, are decidedly unfavorable for spending, as is the pressing cash-flow reality of high household debt. Weakness in consumer spending was also evident in the NAB business survey for October, particularly in NSW. That said, while confidence is now below average in aggregate, conditions for businesses remain above average overall on the back of robust trading conditions and profitability.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to be the main event risk in a data-light European session ahead. Draghi is due to

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to be the main event risk in a data-light European session ahead. Draghi is due to deliver the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress that is scheduled at 0830 GMT. Draghi is likely to speak on the theme of "Back to Normal - What Does It Mean?" that includes topics such as: Moving towards tomorrow's business models: fine-tuning or disruption? Technology in finance: ever broader, ever deeper? Macroeconomic Implications of a return to a "normal" monetary policy. Markets will pay close attention to any fresh hints on the monetary policy or Eurozone economy. Although, no surprises are expected as the ECB remains on track to unwind its massive asset purchases programme (QE) in December. However, Draghi may sound cautious on the Eurozone growth outlook, as the European political risk remains in focus.At its Oct 25th monetary policy meeting, Draghi noted: “If the lack of solutions in the negotiations around Brexit continues and remains as the end date gets closer, the private sector itself will have to prepare for a hard Brexit... I would not call it a big financial stability risk, but financial uneasiness.”How could it impact EUR/USD?According to Omkar Godbole, Analyst at FXStreet, “The EUR/USD is attempting a break above the upper edge of the falling wedge at a time when the treasury yields are looking toppy. The wedge breakout, if confirmed, would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change. The pair is chipping away the wedge hurdle of 1.1338. A daily close above that level would confirm a breakout - the sell-off from the September high of 1.1815 has ended and the bulls have regained control. The move, if backed by a double bottom bearish reversal in the US 10-year treasury yield, could yield a stronger rally toward 1.1586 (61.8% Fib R of Sept/Nov drop).”Key NotesEurozone: Draghi and CPI in focus today - TDS EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish bias remains; fall to 1.12 mark still looks a distinct possibilityAbout Draghi’s speechAs part of his job in the Governing Council, he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).  

According to the results of a Reuters poll of economists, Japan is set to see a healthy rebound in October's exports figures, with expectations for co

According to the results of a Reuters poll of economists, Japan is set to see a healthy rebound in October's exports figures, with expectations for core CPI to stabilize.Key quotes"Exports were forecast to rise 9.0 percent in October from a year earlier, the fastest pace of gain since January, the poll of 16 economists showed. In September, they declined a revised 1.3 percent. Imports likely jumped 14.5 percent in October from a year earlier, giving a trade deficit of 70 billion yen ($617.5 million). “The pace of expansion in global trade is slowing down and Japan’s exports growth has been sluggish. On the one hand, we believe negative impacts from natural disasters waned,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. The poll also found the nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food prices but includes fuel costs, rose 1.0 percent in October from a year earlier, steady from September. Japan’s economy shrank more than expected in the third quarter, hit by natural disasters and a decline in exports, a worrying sign that trade protectionism is starting to take its toll on overseas demand."

Amy Yuan Zhuang, Chief Asia Analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that the RBI’s efforts to solve the bad debt problem of Indian economy are also compli

Amy Yuan Zhuang, Chief Asia Analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that the RBI’s efforts to solve the bad debt problem of Indian economy are also complicated by the weakening INR this year.Key Quotes“The bank is facing the dilemma of either raising rates to support the struggling currency or easing liquidity to ensure banking stability. So far it seems that the RBI has chosen the former. It has raised rates twice this year and only injected liquidity indirectly.” “The INR has recovered from its all-time low in early October, thanks to plunging oil prices that relieve the pressure on India’s current account deficit. However, India’s external vulnerability remains a possible trigger for another around of INR sell-offs. Prolonged banking sector problems and liquidity squeeze hurt confidence in the INR and adds to the downside risk.” “On a longer horizon, a persistently high NPL ratio will reduce growth in lending and investment. The resulting lower growth limits the room for a stronger INR in the long term.”  

According to analysts at Danske Bank, all eyes are on the Brexit developments and the future of Theresa May as UK prime minister. Key Quotes “Develo

According to analysts at Danske Bank, all eyes are on the Brexit developments and the future of Theresa May as UK prime minister.Key Quotes“Developments took a sharp turn yesterday as the Conservatives went into open warfare when several ministers in Theresa May's government resigned including Brexit minister Raab. This morning, The Daily Telegraph reports that the DUP will pull its support from the government unless Theresa May resigns as prime minister. Hence, the pressure remains on the UK government.”

French Transport Minister Elisabeth Borne is on the wires now, speaking to CNews Television about a potential no-deal Brexit. “We are making preparat

French Transport Minister Elisabeth Borne is on the wires now, speaking to CNews Television about a potential no-deal Brexit. “We are making preparations for the hypothetical scenario of no agreement. For that scenario, we will be preparing customs controls, veterinary measures to put in place and also measures for checks at ports.”

   •  The safe-haven Japanese Yen catches bids amid a fresh wave of risk-aversion trade.    •  Subdued USD price action does little to lend any suppo

   •  The safe-haven Japanese Yen catches bids amid a fresh wave of risk-aversion trade.
   •  Subdued USD price action does little to lend any support or stall the ongoing slide.
   •  Today’s thin US economic docket seems unlikely to provide any meaningful impetus.
The USD/JPY pair met with some fresh supply on Friday and has now moved back within striking distance of over one-week lows set in the previous session. The pair struggled to build on overnight goodish rebound from the 113.00 neighborhood, with a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade benefitting the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and exerting downward pressure on the major.  A Financial Times report said another round of US tariffs on Chinese imports has been put on hold but a US Trade Representative spokesperson later denied this report and fueled speculations that US-China trade deal is unlikely to happen this month. Adding to this, a deepening Brexit crisis, after multiple important ministers in the UK, including the Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, resigned from the UK PM Theresa May's government, further dented investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets.  The global flight to safety was evident from a wave of selling across Asian equity markets and further reinforced by a weaker tone around the US Treasury bond yields, which was eventually seen dragging the pair lower through the Asian session on Friday. 

Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar price action did little to lend any support or stall the pair's ongoing slide to intraday lows, around the 113.20 region. The broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as a key determinant of the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week amid a relatively thin US economic docket, featuring the second-tier releases of industrial production and capacity utilization data.Technical levels to watchThe 113.10-113.00 region might continue to act as an immediate support, which if broken is likely to accelerate the slide towards the 112.70-60 horizontal zone en-route 112.25 support area. On the flip side, the 113.55-60 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 114.00 handle.
 

Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above expectations (0.2%) in October

Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY): 4% (October) vs 3.5%

Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -2.7%, below expectations (1.3%) in September

GBP/USD Chart, 5-Minute The past couple of weeks have seen the impact of Brexit wrangling on the GBP/USD, with the pair knocking to the downside

Intraday GBP/USD action sees the Cable sharply off of near-term highs with market flows getting driven purely by Brexit headlines.GBP/USD Forecast: UK political turmoil adds to Brexit uncertainties and should now cap any meaningful up-moveGBP/USD Chart, 5-MinuteThe past couple of weeks have seen the impact of Brexit wrangling on the GBP/USD, with the pair knocking to the downside of 1.2800, and bullish recovery attempts are quickly running into overbought near-term technical indicators.GBP/USD Chart, 30-MinuteThe past two months shows the GBP/USD dipping into critical lows near late October's bottoms, and despite the technical leaning for a bullish recovery, a steady stream of Brexit headlines will make it difficult for intraday buyers to bid the Cable safely, and charts are showing safety in a medium-term bearish stance.GBP/USD Chart, 4-HourGBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.2808
    Daily change: 30 pips
    Daily change: 0.235%
    Daily Open: 1.2778
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2934
    Daily SMA50: 1.3033
    Daily SMA100: 1.3023
    Daily SMA200: 1.3379
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3032
    Daily Low: 1.2724
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2841
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2914
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2657
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2537
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.235
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2965
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3152
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3273  

FX option expiries for Nov 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. ´- EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1200 1.8bn  1.1250 596m 1.12

FX option expiries for Nov 16 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. ´- EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1200 1.8bn  1.1250 596m 1.1275 565m 1.1300 1.4bn  1.1340 752m 1.1400 538m 1.1446 1.3bn  1.1455 710m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2765 392m 1.2800  948m 1.2900  217m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 112.75 587m 113.00 830m 114.00 546m 114.20 450m 114.50 1.1b 115.00 449m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7200 1.1bn  0.7225  2.4bn  0.7275  981m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6745 256m

The European Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovkis was out with some comments in the last hour, via Il Sole, saying that Italy is openly defying

The European Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovkis was out with some comments in the last hour, via Il Sole, saying that Italy is openly defying EU budget rules. This comes ahead of the Commission's official response to Italy's revised budget on November 21 and clearly indicates a further escalation of the Italy-EU standoff.  Italian budgetary concerns should keep a lid on the EUR/USD pair's ongoing steady recovery move from YTD lows set at the beginning of this week. 

According to analysts at NAB, while global growth remains above average, GDP data for Q3 point to a slowdown in the second half of 2018. Key Quotes

According to analysts at NAB, while global growth remains above average, GDP data for Q3 point to a slowdown in the second half of 2018.Key Quotes“Business surveys also indicate a slowdown is underway, particularly in manufacturing. The divergence in growth rates between the major economies that emerged in the first half of 2018 has carried over into Q3 - the US economy posted another strong result, while Euro-zone growth slowed noticeably and Japan’s economy went backwards (partly reflecting temporary factors).” “Growth in the major emerging market economies also likely slowed in the quarter. Financial market volatility has also lifted with large falls in equity markets.” “We expect above average global growth in 2018 at 3.7%, slowing to 3.6% in 2019 and 3.5% in 2020 (the long-term historical average). This expected slowdown is driven by advanced economies as US fiscal stimulus fades, monetary policy tightens and supply constraints bite.” “The US-China trade dispute is a potential headwind to growth; especially if there is further escalation.”

Analysts at Nomura note that in the US, the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys sent conflicting signals in November. Key Quotes “The

Analysts at Nomura note that in the US, the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys sent conflicting signals in November.Key Quotes“The Empire State general business conditions index increased 2.2pp to 23.3, above expectations (Nomura and Consensus: 20), suggesting steady manufacturing momentum in New York.” “The new orders and shipments indicators both remained elevated while labor indicators improved notably (number of employees up 5.1pp to 14.1 and average workweek up 9.0pp to 9.2).” “In contrast, the Philly Fed survey showed a noticeable decline in manufacturing activity during November with the headline index dropping 9.3pp to 12.9. The new orders subindex deteriorated while shipments remained elevated, suggesting some weakening in near term momentum.” “The forward looking indicators across both surveys also sent conflicting signals. However, capital expenditure expectations improved strongly in both surveys during November (+8.8pp to 24.8 in Empire, +10.9pp to 36.1 in Philly), a positive sign after weakening capital expenditure plans across a number of regional business surveys.” “Finally, special questions from the Philly Fed survey on pricing power and expected wage growth suggest no material changes since August 2018, indicating that despite escalating trade tensions and further tightening in the labor market, manufacturers in the region do not expect a material change in the trajectory of price or wage inflation.”

Risk-off sentiment seeped back into Asia this Friday, as concerns over the US-China trade issue resurfaced amid the resumption of the high-level talks

Risk-off sentiment seeped back into Asia this Friday, as concerns over the US-China trade issue resurfaced amid the resumption of the high-level talks between the US and Chinese officials. As a result, the safe-havens such as the Yen caught a fresh bid-wave, dragging the USD/JPY pair lower towards the overnight low of 113.10 while risk currency, the Aussie, slipped towards the 0.7250 level while the Kiwi stood resilient near 0.6840 region, although largely range bound. Both the EUR and the pound benefited from broad-based US dollar softness, staging a corrective upside after yesterday’s Brexit blues-led massive slump.  Amongst commodities, gold prices on Comex traded modestly flat near 1215, with the technical setup pointing to further gains while both crude benchmarks staged a comeback following the reports that the US imposed sanctions on Saudi Arabia, in light of the Khashoggi killing.Main Topics in AsiaTory-DUP deal over unless PM May replaced - UK's Daily Telegraph US Trade Rep Lighthizer denies conveying tariff delay on talks Japan's Aso: Exports affected by trade issues US imposes trade sanctions on Saudi Arabian officials - Reuters Senior US official: China offer unlikely to spur major trade breakthrough China Envoy to US: US is one of China's most important partners US State Dept on N. Korea tests: Confident that promises between Trump-Kim will be fulfilled Trump and Xi unlikely to make a full deal, but both willing - BloombergKey Focus AheadToday’s EUR macro calendar is a thin showing, with no first-tier economic releases on the docket as market gear up for the ECB President Draghi’s speech due at 0830 GMT. Draghi is due to speak at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. Meanwhile, the final reading of the Eurozone CPI figures will be due at 1000 GMT. Also, in focus will be ECB Vice-President Weidmann’s speech at 1300 GMT ahead of the Canadian manufacturing sales data that will drop in at 1330 GMT.     The US docket holds a slew of macro updates, with the industrial production and Kansas Fed manufacturing activity of note. At 1800 GMT, Baker Hughes US oil rig count data will be reported and is expected to have a significant impact on the oil markets. EUR/USD: Back above 200-week MA ahead of Draghi speech A move higher to 1.14, however, depends on what the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi says during the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, scheduled at 08:30 GMT. GBP/USD: Political headlines leave a Brexit-sized hole The economic calendar for the UK side remains painfully empty for Friday, leaving the GBP exposed to the full force of Brexit headlines for the day's session, with only Industrial Production for the US trading window at 14:15 GMT. What no-confidence vote means for Brexit and Pound? The Prime Minister Theresa May is in a crossfire in both her own Cabinet and in the UK parliament as she is trying to advocate the position of freshly agreed Brexit agreement.  How UK's Brexit Troubles Affect Rest of the World The UK's troubles extend far beyond Britain's borders. A disorderly Brexit benefits no one including the Eurozone. On a day when currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars are up sharply …  

Analysts at TD Securities point out that ECB President Draghi delivers a speech during Euro Finance Week at 8:30am GMT, while Weidmann speaks at 1pm G

Analysts at TD Securities point out that ECB President Draghi delivers a speech during Euro Finance Week at 8:30am GMT, while Weidmann speaks at 1pm GMT.Key Quotes“Final CPI details for the October report are released, and we'll be looking carefully at which components drove the rise in core inflation to 1.1% y/y.”

William Hagerty, US ambassador to Japan, a drop in the Japanese auto exports to the US is needed to reduce the trade imbalance.  Key quotes A decl

William Hagerty, US ambassador to Japan, a drop in the Japanese auto exports to the US is needed to reduce the trade imbalance. Key quotesA decline in Japanese auto exports to the US is needed, only then would the US trade deficit with Japan drop Also needed is an increase in Japanese production in America Japan also needs to increase imports of US cars and beef

A think-tank affiliated with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has issued a paper arguing that ditching negative interest rates could help accelerate inflation,

A think-tank affiliated with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has issued a paper arguing that ditching negative interest rates could help accelerate inflation, according to Reuters News. The academic paper by Junko Koeda, a Waseda University professor who is not BOJ staff, says, " A 'liftoff,' which occurs when the net policy rate becomes positive, can be expansionary if it triggers the economy to move to a better state." While the paper does not represent the BOJ's view, it could be interpreted by market participants as a sign the central bank is getting increasingly concerned about the rising cost of prolonged monetary easing. The central bank introduced negative rates and introduced yield curve control in 2016 to achieve its elusive 2 percent inflation target.    

As reported earlier, comments from US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross noted that the upcoming Trump-Xi sideline meeting at the upcoming G20 summit is u

As reported earlier, comments from US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross noted that the upcoming Trump-Xi sideline meeting at the upcoming G20 summit is unlikely to produce much outside of a tentative framework looking forward, and Ross reaffirmed the US" intention to ramp up current tariffs on China, with a tariff rate hike to 25% due in January.Key quotes"The U.S. and China are now discussing the agenda for the two leaders’ meeting on the sidelines of the Nov. 30-Dec. 1 Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires and what a realistic outcome could be.  It can’t be expected that the two presidents will “get into intimate details -- how much LNG and how much this and that. It’s going to be big picture, but if it goes well, it’ll set the framework for going forward," Ross said. “We certainly won’t have a full formal deal by January. Impossible.” The U.S. has a long list of demands with 142 items, which will take some time to discuss “let alone to resolve them and let alone to put them on paper,” the secretary said. Ross’s comments are a sign of what appears to be a growing appetite in the Trump administration to reach a deal with China to bring an end to the escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs that have unnerved investors and companies around the world. But they also were an acknowledgment of just how hard securing a deal will be." China has also proved that it’s aware of its own commercial self-interest and the impact its own retaliatory measures were having on it, Ross said, pointing to Beijing’s decision to reduce a 25 percent retaliatory tariff on U.S. LNG to 10 percent." “The big event is going to be the one-on-one meeting with President Trump and President Xi at the G-20 down in Argentina. All this other stuff is just preparatory until that. That’ll set if there is going to be a real framework" ~ Wilbur Ross, via Bloomberg

India’s export growth accelerated to 17.9% y-o-y in October from a 2.3% contraction in September, because of favourable base effects and rupee weaknes

India’s export growth accelerated to 17.9% y-o-y in October from a 2.3% contraction in September, because of favourable base effects and rupee weakness, explains the research team at Nomura.Key Quotes“Surprisingly, import growth spiked to 17.6% y-o-y in October from 10.5% in September, driven by high oil import growth (despite the fall in oil prices) and in the core (non-oil, non-gold) categories.” “We suspect the spike in oil imports reflects some frontloading because of the expected trigger of the US’s sanctions on Iran in November. The increase in imports led to the trade deficit spiking to USD17.1bn, from a shortfall of USD14bn in September –the fourth time in FY19 (year ending March) that it has breached the USD17bn mark. Our volume analysis shows that export and core import volume growth increased from September levels.” “We believe the current account deficit in Q3 will breach 3% of GDP; improve in H2 FY19 (year ending March), averaging 2.6% of GDP for the whole fiscal year versus 1.9% in FY18.” “We continue to believe that the weak rupee, slowing growth and low oil prices will keep the current account in control.”

The EUR/USD is attempting a break above the upper edge of the falling wedge at a time when the treasury yields are looking toppy. The wedge breakout,

The EUR/USD is attempting a break above the upper edge of the falling wedge at a time when the treasury yields are looking toppy. The wedge breakout, if confirmed, would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.Daily ChartAs can be seen, the pair is chipping away the wedge hurdle of 1.1338. A daily close above that level would confirm a breakout - the sell-off from the September high of 1.1815 has ended and the bulls have regained control.The move, if backed by a double bottom bearish reversal in the US 10-year treasury yield, could yield a stronger rally toward 1.1586 (61.8% Fib R of Sept/Nov drop).Weekly ChartThe falling wedge breakout, if confirmed in the daily, would validate the pair's quick recovery from below 200-week MA of 1.1308. Watch how a similar looking weekly candle in August was followed by a rally to highs above 1.18.A convincing close below the 200-week MA today would be bad news for the Euro bulls.EUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1339
    Daily change: 7.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0618%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466  
The US 10-year treasury yield is charting a double top bearish reversal pattern with the neckline at 3.057 percent. A daily close below the neckline support would confirm a bullish-to-bearish trend change, opening the doors for a deeper drop to percent (target as per the measured height method). The bearish breakdown, if confirmed, could drag the USD/JPY pair lower. The fact that the Treasury yield is charting a bearish reversal pattern could also be considered an indication that risk aversion could worsen in the days ahead.  Note that the 10-year yield is more sensitive to haven demand compared to the 2-year yield, which is more sensitive to short-term rate hike/inflation expectations. Daily chart

Analysts at Australia suggest that following the strong growth of early 2018, they expect Australian economic growth to slow a little over the next tw

Analysts at Australia suggest that following the strong growth of early 2018, they expect Australian economic growth to slow a little over the next two years.Key Quotes“We think the strength in the economy will still be enough to see the labour market hold onto recent gains, and for the unemployment rate to decline further from the 5.0% reached in September/October – a 6-year low.” “Recent data have largely confirmed that spare capacity is falling and that wage growth is beginning to moderately lift. As has been the case for some time, we expect the inflationary impacts of this erosion in spare capacity to emerge only gradually. Indeed, the Q3 CPI confirms we are starting from a below target position at around 1¾% on the core measures.” “With these trends heading in the right direction, we have left our call on the first move in interest rates unchanged but remain firmly of the view that this is highly data dependent.” “Even with robust growth, the labour market tightening and evidence of a modest pickup in wage growth, the RBA will want to see firm evidence of higher wages growth feeding through to inflation before adjusting rates.”

Analysts at Nomura are very surprised that Theresa May has pushed a deal through the cabinet without maintaining Dominic Raab's backing and think that

Analysts at Nomura are very surprised that Theresa May has pushed a deal through the cabinet without maintaining Dominic Raab's backing and think that GBP is unlikely to find a way back from this in the short term.Key Quotes“We think the market enjoys a narrative and we're heading towards the need for hedging flows for the downside to drag GBP lower into the parliamentary vote.” “In our view the market will be buying downside in GBP positioning on the likelihood of a leadership vote of confidence.” “We still expect the UK to avoid downside tail risk scenarios, but believe in the next 24-48 hours the market narrative will turn rather sour as to what happens next.”  

The GBP/USD is trading just shy of the 1.2800 technical level heading into Friday's London market session after a tense Thursday that left the Cable r

Brexit headlines continue to drive GBP/USD action as the UK's parliament continues to fracture.Another Brexit secretary has departed from PM May's flock, and bloodthirsty Tories are looking for a new vote.The GBP/USD is trading just shy of the 1.2800 technical level heading into Friday's London market session after a tense Thursday that left the Cable rattled as Brexit headlines continue to whip the kingdom, and it's related markets, into a frenzy despite the supposed clinching of a last-second Brexit deal with the EU heading into the week's end. UK Prime Minister Theresa May recently had the pleasure of announcing a still-unpublished tentative deal with the EU that will see the UK maintain access to the European continent's customs and fiscal unions, but the number of concessions within the half-plan are likely far outside of anything the UK's Tory government would be willing to agree to, and the British parliament was rocked by the sudden departure of Dominic Raab, the UK's newest Brexit minister, who resigned yesterday over the contents of May's latest Brexit deal, and the DUP-Tory agreement is facing strain as rumour headlines are swirling into Friday that the Northern Ireland DUP, along with several key hard-line Brexiteers within the UK's Tory party, are openly calling for a no-confidence vote in PM May, and Brexit angst can be expected to continue rising in the coming weeks. The economic calendar for the UK side remains painfully empty for Friday, leaving the GBP exposed to the full force of Brexit headlines for the day's session, with only Industrial Production for the US trading window at 14:15 GMT, but the mid-tier indicator is unlikely to drive much momentum as broader markets remain trapped in vicious cycles of risk flows into and out of both the Greenback and the Pound Sterling.GBP/USD Levels to watchThe Cable found itself at the wrong end of a Brexit-fueled freefall on Thursday, declining over 300 pips peak-to-trough from the day's high, and as noted by FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik, "the GBP/USD pair was again subject of high volatility throughout the day. It traded as low as 1.2729, its lowest for this November, recovering just modestly from such low ahead of the close, still well below the 1.2800 level. Technical readings are now aligned with the fundamental background, something that implicates a steeper decline ahead. The 4 hours chart shows that the battle around the 200 EMA was lost by bulls, with the pair now roughly 200 pips below it, also below a bearish 20 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart maintain their strong bearish slopes near oversold readings. A break through the mentioned daily low, exposes 1.2690, October monthly low, while below this one, 1.2661, the year low posted last August comes next." Support levels: 1.2730 1.2690 1.2660 Resistance levels: 1.2810 1.2855 1.2900

The fixed income asset class continues to lose its appeal amid a rising rate environment in the US. Notably, the US-based taxable-bond funds saw with

The fixed income asset class continues to lose its appeal amid a rising rate environment in the US. Notably, the US-based taxable-bond funds saw withdrawals of $1.2 billion during the week ended Nov 14, according to Lipper data on Thursday. These funds bled $53 billion in October, the largest withdrawals on records dating to 1992, according to Lipper.

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggest that Australia's strong data this week helped AUD outperform most G10 currencies, but with a quiet c

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggest that Australia's strong data this week helped AUD outperform most G10 currencies, but with a quiet calendar near term, whether AUD gains can continue is probably dependent on the oscillations of US-China trade headlines.Key Quotes“Equities had a poor run this week and Australian equities underperformed the Asian region, but nonetheless AUD/USD moved towards 3 months highs around 0.73 as we saw important data on the domestic economy, which was mostly upbeat. The Aussie dollar was also helped by more positive headlines on US-China trade relations.” “Wages rose 0.6% in Q3 and while wages growth remains soft by pre-GFC standards, the 2.3% annual rate is a 3 year high. October labour force data revealed a stronger than expected 33k rise in total employment, led by full-time work. This kept the unemployment rate steady at a 6 year low of 5.0%.” “This data sparked a half cent AUD/USD bounce to just under 0.7300, within striking distance of 3 month highs. Key commodity prices have eased, but are still well above July lows, with iron ore around $74/tonne, versus $63 in July.” “After a busy run, Australia’s data calendar goes quiet for the next week or so. We see the RBA minutes on Tuesday but expect offshore events to dominate for AUD, especially US-China trade negations ahead of the 30 November meeting between President Xi and President Trump. Headlines this week have been mixed but mostly conciliatory and will remain a focus in the week ahead.”

The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1335, having printed a low of 1.1215 earlier this week. The move back above the 200-week MA of 1.1308 could emb

The EUR/USD has faded the drop below the 200-week moving average (MA).The recovery could be extended further to 1.14 if ECB's Draghi reaffirms commitment to end the QE program in December.Brexit chaos and the resulting action in the EUR/GBP could also influence the EUR/USD.The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1335, having printed a low of 1.1215 earlier this week. The move back above the 200-week MA of 1.1308 could embolden the bulls as the long-term moving average had put a floor under the pair in the last two weeks. Further, the MA had reversed pullback in August. A move higher to 1.14, however, depends on what the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi says during the keynote speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, scheduled at 08:30 GMT. The common currency could pick up a strong bid if Draghi downplays Italy's budget crisis and reaffirms plans to end the QE program. Further, GBP/USD is likely to report losses, as indicated by the rising demand for Sterling puts. The resulting uptick in the EUR/GBP cross could also add to the bullish tone around the EUR/USD. The pair, however, may fall back below the 200-week MA if Draghi sounds cautious, forcing markets to price-in a delay in the rate hike, currently seen happening at the end of 2019.EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1336
    Daily change: 4.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0353%
    Daily Open: 1.1332
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1379
    Daily SMA50: 1.1515
    Daily SMA100: 1.1566
    Daily SMA200: 1.1819
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1363
    Daily Low: 1.1271
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1328
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1306
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1281
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.123
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1189
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1373
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1414
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1466  

In its commodities report, the Barclays Research Team offer their take on oil, with some revisions to their previous forecasts. Key Quotes: “Althoug

In its commodities report, the Barclays Research Team offer their take on oil, with some revisions to their previous forecasts.Key Quotes:“Although our price outlook remained bearish at the $85/b level at which the quarter began, we believe prices have overshot.  Yet, only bullish weekly EIA data or production disruptions can stem the price decline before the OPEC meeting on 6 December in Vienna.  Thus, further weakness is likely in store, which is likely to compel an OPEC+ reaction to keep some form of its cuts in place.  Given this short-term view, for prices to average $77 as previously forecast, oil would have to rapidly trade above $80 in December, which we now think is unlikely.  We mark our 4Q Brent price forecast to $75/b, a slight $2/b revision from our prior forecast. We keep our 2019 forecast unchanged at $72/b and continue to see risks skewed to the upside next year.”

In the US, the October retail sales report suggests steady personal consumption growth to start Q4 despite a transitory boost from volatile components

In the US, the October retail sales report suggests steady personal consumption growth to start Q4 despite a transitory boost from volatile components, according to analysts at Nomura.Key Quotes“Total retail sales increased 0.8% m-o-m in October, above expectations (Nomura: 0.6%, Consensus: 0.5%), following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in September (previously reported as +0.1%).” “The headline reading was boosted by a strong jump in sales at auto and auto parts dealerships.” “Core (“control group”) retail sales rose 0.3% m-o-m in October following a similar gain in September, slightly below our and market expectations of a 0.4% m-o-m gain. However, downward revisions to September and August core retail sales suggest that PCE growth was likely weaker than expected near end-Q3.”

Analysts at ANZ suggest that the squeeze higher in the NZD has been reasonably brutal over the past month. Key Quotes “While to some degree the stre

Analysts at ANZ suggest that the squeeze higher in the NZD has been reasonably brutal over the past month.Key Quotes“While to some degree the strength was justified as factors leading to the underperformance dissipated (namely expectations for RBNZ rate cuts), we now believe it has moved far enough.” “The economic surprise index has reached extended levels, and the rates market has flipped (with hikes now priced from late-2019).” “At the same time, the CAD has fallen in sympathy with the extraordinary weakness in oil. We think this move is over-extended. As such, we recommend selling NZD/CAD at 0.8990 for a target of 0.85. We set a stop at 0.9250.”  

The AUD/JPY is reporting moderate losses at 82.45 despite the positive action in the Asian equity markets. For instance, the Shanghai Composite is up

The AUD/JPY is reporting moderate losses at 82.45 despite the positive action in the Asian equity markets. For instance, the Shanghai Composite is up 0.7 percent at press time. Stocks in Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, and India are also reporting gains. As a result, the AUD and other risk currencies may soon pick up a bid, bolstering the already bullish technical setup in the AUD/JPY cross.4-hour ChartThe path of least resistance is on the higher side, as indicated by the falling channel breakout witnessed on November 12, subsequent higher lows (rising trendline) and ascending 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), 100-hour EMA. The stacking order of the major EMAs is also a classic bullish signal.The bullish setup, however, would be invalidated if the pair falls back below the 200-day EMA of 81.99.

Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish above $1,216 XAU/USD Overview:     Last Price: 1214.37     Daily change: 1.2e+2 pips     Daily change: 0.102%   

Gold is consolidating in the range of $1,207 to $1,216 and a break above the upper end of the trading range would confirm a bullish continuation pattern, that is, a revival of the rally from the Nov. 14 low of $1,199.The yellow metal has found acceptance above the 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA). Further, the 50-hour EMA has cut the 100-hour EMA from below, confirming a bullish crossover.The prospects of the bullish breakout weaken if prices fall back below the 200-hour EMA of $1,213.Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish above $1,216 XAU/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1214.37
    Daily change: 1.2e+2 pips
    Daily change: 0.102%
    Daily Open: 1213.13
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1221.29
    Daily SMA50: 1213.93
    Daily SMA100: 1206.53
    Daily SMA200: 1240.11
Levels:
    Daily High: 1216.47
    Daily Low: 1207
    Weekly High: 1236.6
    Weekly Low: 1206.3
    Monthly High: 1243.43
    Monthly Low: 1182.54
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1212.85
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1210.62
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1207.93
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1202.73
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1198.46
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1217.4
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1221.67
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1226.87  

Comments by the US State Department in response to the North Korea special weapons tests conducted earlier today are noted below. The US State Depart

Comments by the US State Department in response to the North Korea special weapons tests conducted earlier today are noted below. The US State Department said: “We remain confident that promises between Trump and Kim will be fulfilled”. The South Korean news agency, Yonhap, reported earlier today that North Korea is said to be testing a high-tech weapon.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang is out with some comments, via Reuters, urging financial support for private companies. Further co

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang is out with some comments, via Reuters, urging financial support for private companies.Further comments:Financial institutions should take measures to reasonably manage the pace and intensity of credit supply. Financial institutions should make full use of incentive measures for lending to private and smaller firms. Financial institutions should take measures to maintain sustainability of private and small firms' businesses.

DXY Chart, 5-Minute Looking further out to the past two weeks, a major higher low is running out of time to mark in a floor for the Dollar index,

The US Dollar remains constrained under intraday whips across the broader FX space, keeping the Greenback under wraps from yesterday's peak at 74.25DXY Chart, 5-MinuteLooking further out to the past two weeks, a major higher low is running out of time to mark in a floor for the Dollar index, and the 200-period moving average is threating to become a stiff resistance level which could prevent a further move up in the USD.DXY Chart, 30-MinuteWhile the DXY could be due for a bearish  correction, the overall trend remains firmly to the bull side, with the DXY's interim action getting choked out by a failed downside run at the 38.2% Fibo retracement level at 96.75,.DXY Chart, 4-HourDollar Index Spot Overview:
    Last Price: 96.98
    Daily change: -11 pips
    Daily change: -0.113%
    Daily Open: 97.09
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.6
    Daily SMA50: 95.68
    Daily SMA100: 95.36
    Daily SMA200: 93.5
Levels:
    Daily High: 97.39
    Daily Low: 96.76
    Weekly High: 97.01
    Weekly Low: 95.68
    Monthly High: 97.2
    Monthly Low: 94.79
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 97.15
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.77
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.45
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.14
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 97.4
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 97.71
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 98.03  

The Japanese yen is pushing higher against the US dollar on fading prospects of a breakthrough US-China trade deal. At press time, the USD/JPY pair i

The anti-risk Japanese yen picked up a bid few minutes before press time, possibly due to reports stating that US-China trade deal is unlikely to happen this month.The pair could drop to 113.14 - 38.2% Fib R of 111.38/114.23 - as indicators on the daily chart are rolling over in favor of the bears.A deeper drop below 113.14 could be seen if the equities turn risk-averse.  The Japanese yen is pushing higher against the US dollar on fading prospects of a breakthrough US-China trade deal. At press time, the USD/JPY pair is trading at a session low of 113.34, having clocked a high of 113.64 earlier today. The pair created a long-legged doji candle yesterday as it recovered sharply from intraday low of 113.10 to 113.62 after rumors hit the wires that the US is planning to put next tariffs on hold. The resulting optimism has been squashed by comments from a senior Trump administration official that China's written response to the demands for trade reforms is unlikely to enable a trade deal between the world's two biggest economies. So far, there are no signs of stress in the Asian equities. For instance, the Shanghai Composite is trading largely unchanged on the day and other Asian indices except Nikkei are trading flat to positive. The S&P 500 futures, however, are down 0.35 percent, meaning markets could turn risk-averse ahead in the day, driving the USD/JPY below the key Fib support of 113.14. Technicals are aligned in favor of the bears. The 5- and 10-day EMAs are rolling over in favor of the bears and the daily MACD is staring at a bearish crossover.USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 113.34
    Daily change: -23 pips
    Daily change: -0.203%
    Daily Open: 113.57
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 113.07
    Daily SMA50: 112.78
    Daily SMA100: 112.01
    Daily SMA200: 110.12
Levels:
    Daily High: 113.72
    Daily Low: 113.1
    Weekly High: 114.1
    Weekly Low: 112.94
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.48
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.33
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.21
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 112.84
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 112.58
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 113.83
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 114.09
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 114.46  

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), with the key headlines found below. Overall lending keeps stable grow

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), with the key headlines found below. Overall lending keeps stable growth. Financing the condition of private, small companies improved.

Oil markets continue to trade tightly near medium-term lows, with WTI constrained just beneath the $57.00 level as energy investors grapple with inbou

US production hits another new record, while US barrel counts continue to race higher.Planned production cuts by OPEC may hit a major snag, reducing their effect on prices in the future.Oil markets continue to trade tightly near medium-term lows, with WTI constrained just beneath the $57.00 level as energy investors grapple with inbound threats from OPEC to slash oil production across the board, and crude bidders are struggling to rectify their global outlook, with the US continuing to stash light sweet crude wherever they can fit it. US crude supply stocks reported their largest weekly build-up in over two years, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) stating that the US reached yet another new milestone in production, clipping into 11.7 million barrels per day getting pulled out of the ground, and crude inventories showed a similar build-up, adding 10.3 million barrels to see 442.1 million crude barrels in supply, the highest barrel count since December of last year. OPEC is warning that they will begin cutting production of crude as soon as December, with some estimates reaching over a million bpd they intend to restrict, but as noted by analysts at Morgan Stanley, OPEC crude and US crude are two different animals, and a decline in Middle East oil supply may not mean much for light sweet crude markets: "The main oil price benchmarks - Brent and WTI - are both light-sweet crudes and reflect this glut; OPEC production cuts are usually implemented by removing medium and heavier barrels from the market but that does not address the oversupply of light-sweet. OPEC cuts are inherently temporary (because) all they can do is shift production from one period to another."WTI Technical LevelsWTI Overview:
    Last Price: 56.83
    Daily change: 38 pips
    Daily change: 0.673%
    Daily Open: 56.45
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 62.52
    Daily SMA50: 68.23
    Daily SMA100: 68.26
    Daily SMA200: 68.31
Levels:
    Daily High: 56.56
    Daily Low: 56.45
    Weekly High: 63.05
    Weekly Low: 59.24
    Monthly High: 76.25
    Monthly Low: 64.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 56.49
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 56.52
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 56.41
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 56.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 56.3
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 56.52
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 56.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 56.63  

Hourly Chart Trend:  neutral-to-bullish USD/CNH Overview:     Last Price: 6.9318     Daily change: 37 pips     Daily change: 0.0534%     Dai

The USD/CNH mildly bid at 6.9322 at press time, having clocked a low of 6.9197 earlier today.The hourly chart is showing a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI). As a result, the spot looks set to test the resistance of the trendline, currently at 6.9346.A break above that trendline hurdle would imply an end of the pullback from the Nov. 13 high of 6.9694. A resumption of the rally from the Nov. 2 low of 6.8521, however, would be confirmed above 6.9694.The bullish RSI divergence would be negated below 6.9148.Hourly ChartTrend:  neutral-to-bullish USD/CNH Overview:
    Last Price: 6.9318
    Daily change: 37 pips
    Daily change: 0.0534%
    Daily Open: 6.9281
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 6.9409
    Daily SMA50: 6.907
    Daily SMA100: 6.8502
    Daily SMA200: 6.6009
Levels:
    Daily High: 6.9461
    Daily Low: 6.9152
    Weekly High: 6.9538
    Weekly Low: 6.8895
    Monthly High: 6.9798
    Monthly Low: 6.8674
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.927
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.9343
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.9135
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.8989
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.8826
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.9444
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.9607
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.9753  

The Chinese Ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, is on the wires now, via Livesquawk, speaking In New York on the US-China trade relationship. Key He

The Chinese Ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, is on the wires now, via Livesquawk, speaking In New York on the US-China trade relationship.Key Headlines: Accusations against China are based on `alternative facts. The US is one of China's most important partners. Cites President Xi's message that China won't stop reform and opening. Adding that China is ready to work with the US on cooperation.

The GBP/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (GBP1MRR) are currently trading at -2.76 in favor of put options. That level was last seen in Sept. 9, 2

The GBP/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (GBP1MRR) are currently trading at -2.76 in favor of put options. That level was last seen in Sept. 9, 2016. The risk reversals stood at -2.72 yesterday and -0.82 on Nov. 9. The sharp decline indicates the demand for the put options has risen sharply in the last few days, meaning the investors are likely expecting a deeper drop in the British currency. At press time, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2788, having clocked a low of 1.2723 yesterday.GBP1MRR

Reuters reports comments delivered by a senior Trump administration official late-Thursday, citing that China’s written response to the demands for tr

Reuters reports comments delivered by a senior Trump administration official late-Thursday, citing that China’s written response to the demands for trade reforms is unlikely to enable a trade deal between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi when they meet later this month. The official noted that “the Chinese document included 142 items divided into three categories: issues the Chinese are willing to negotiate for further action, issues they are already working on and issues they consider off limits.” Meanwhile, the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said yesterday that the US still plans China tariff increase to 25% in January.

AUD/USD Chart, 5-Minute The past two weeks sees the AUD/USD's latest bull move facing potential rejection from that pair's last swing high into t

The short-term Aussie chart has left the AUD/USD in the lurch, strung out in a constraining pattern within Thursday's trading range as the broader markets await further impetus to trigger directional changes.AUD/USD Chart, 5-MinuteThe past two weeks sees the AUD/USD's latest bull move facing potential rejection from that pair's last swing high into the 0.7300 region, and buyers are risking a stall-out if they don't keep the pair propped up beyond the last higher low at 0.7250.AUD/USD Chart, 30-MinuteA flatlining H4 candlestick chart likewise brings poor news for Aussie bidders, with the 200-period moving average nearly perfectly horizontal from 0.7140, with only thin support coming from the 50-period MA at 0.7225.AUD/USD Chart, 4-HourAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7286
    Daily change: 7.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0962%
    Daily Open: 0.7279
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7163
    Daily SMA50: 0.7163
    Daily SMA100: 0.7257
    Daily SMA200: 0.7456
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.73
    Daily Low: 0.7226
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7272
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7255
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7237
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7195
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7164
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7311
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7342
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7384  

Gold is looking north, having found acceptance above the 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA) of $1,213 earlier today. As of writing, the yellow

Gold has found acceptance above the 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA), possibly due to the weak tone in the US dollar.  The decline in the Asian stocks is likely adding to the bid tone around the yellow metal.  Bullish MA crossovers are calling for further gains.Gold is looking north, having found acceptance above the 200-hour exponential moving average (EMA) of $1,213 earlier today. As of writing, the yellow metal is trading at $1,215. Gold's biggest nemesis - the dollar index - dipped below 97.00 in Asia, having charted a bearish RSI divergence earlier this week. Moreover, the better-than-expected retail sales figure released yesterday failed to lift the dollar. As a result, the American currency is looking vulnerable. Further, Asian stocks are swinging between gains and losses. At press time, Japan's Nikkei is down 0.30 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Send is reporting 0.5 percent drop. Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi and the Shanghai Composite are reporting marginal gains. The lack of clear directional bias in the Asian equities could help the safe haven metal capitalize on the bullish break above the 200-hour EMA. Meanwhile, technicals are also calling further gains. For instance, the 50-hour and 100-hour EMAs produced a bullish crossover a few minutes before press time and the hourly RSI is holding bullish above 50.00.Gold Technical LevelsXAU/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1215.57
    Daily change: 2.4e+2 pips
    Daily change: 0.201%
    Daily Open: 1213.13
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1221.29
    Daily SMA50: 1213.93
    Daily SMA100: 1206.53
    Daily SMA200: 1240.11
Levels:
    Daily High: 1216.47
    Daily Low: 1207
    Weekly High: 1236.6
    Weekly Low: 1206.3
    Monthly High: 1243.43
    Monthly Low: 1182.54
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1212.85
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1210.62
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1207.93
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1202.73
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1198.46
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1217.4
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1221.67
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1226.87  

In its latest client note, analysts at Barclays offered their outlook on the Chinese economic growth and the local currency, the Yuan. Key Points:

In its latest client note, analysts at Barclays offered their outlook on the Chinese economic growth and the local currency, the Yuan.Key Points: On economic growth, the estimate is for 2019 GDP growth at 6.2%, revised lower from the previous forecast 6.5%. The downward revision is due to softer credit growth and activity outlook. USD/CNY by end 2018 is seen at 6.95, unchanged forecast Yuan to hit 7.15 per dollar by end of Q2 19 vs. 6.95 previous forecast.

China's Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng announced that US-China talks have resumed at a weekly press briefing today in Beijing, but offered no sp

China's Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng announced that US-China talks have resumed at a weekly press briefing today in Beijing, but offered no specific details or explanations as to what is being discussed, or by whom. US-China trade talks have been seen "thawing" after a three-month hiatus, precipitated by a call from China's Xi Jingping, but both sides remain tense with Beijing looking ready to deal on trade but giving little leeway, and the US still slated to increase China-targeted tariffs to 25% in January.

As reported by Reuters, the US has imposed trade sanctions on Saudi Arabian officials in response to the slaying of US resident Jamal Khashoggi, a jou

As reported by Reuters, the US has imposed trade sanctions on Saudi Arabian officials in response to the slaying of US resident Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist who was openly critical of the Saudi royal family.Key quotes"The United States imposed economic sanctions on 17 Saudi officials on Thursday for their role in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, as Saudi Arabia’s public prosecutor sought the death penalty for five suspects in the murder. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctions were the first concrete response by the Trump administration to Khashoggi’s death in the Saudi consulate in Turkey in October. The measure was unusual for Washington, which rarely imposes sanctions on Saudi nationals. The sanctions do not target the Riyadh government, an important U.S. security and economic ally. It also allows the administration to stop short of action that might affect lucrative U.S. arms deals with Saudi Arabia that President Donald Trump has vowed to preserve. The sanctions limit access to the U.S. financial system and freeze people’s assets. They will be implemented under an act which targets perpetrators of serious human rights abuses and corruption."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9377 vs the previous day's fix of 6.9402. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9377 vs the previous day's fix of 6.9392. 

As reported by the Nikkei Asian Review, China's Ministry of Commerce is starting a formal investigation into claims by the Beijing Jingdiao Group and

As reported by the Nikkei Asian Review, China's Ministry of Commerce is starting a formal investigation into claims by the Beijing Jingdiao Group and two other Chinese toolmaking companies, who allege that five Japanese companies and four Taiwanese factory plants have been unfairly dumping precision machinery and high-precision manufacturing machinery within China's borders.Key quotes"The move is likely aimed at protecting domestic competitors, whose earnings have been sapped by the U.S.-China trade war. Precision machine tools are considered a core field under the Made in China 2025 initiative, a program led by President Xi Jinping to modernize the country's industry. The three Chinese machine tool makers that called for the probe not only sell their products domestically but also export them from plants in the U.S. There are suspicions that the trio requested the investigation because of pressure to increase sales at home now that machine tools are subject to tariffs in both markets because of the trade war."

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso's take on the third quarter economic contraction, exports, and labor reforms is crossing the wires via LiveSquawk:

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso's take on the third quarter economic contraction, exports, and labor reforms is crossing the wires via LiveSquawk: Q3 GDP decline was impacted by natural disasters Exports probably were affected by trade issues Corporate profits remain very high We need to think about the long-term on foreign workers France is doing well in terms of demographics policy

4-hour Chart Trend: Bearish USD/CAD Overview:     Last Price: 1.3174     Daily change: -10 pips     Daily change: -0.0758%     Daily Open: 1

The USD/CAD is on the defensive at 1.3175, having breached the 4-hour 50-candle exponential moving average (EMA) earlier today.The pullback from 1.3264 to 1.3175 validates the bearish divergence of the RSI seen on the 4-hour chart. Notably, the RSI has not dipped below 50.00.On the daily chart, both 5-, 10-period EMAs are beginning to roll over in favor of the bears.As a result, the spot looks set to test the support at 1.3147 - confluence of the ascending (bullish) 4H 100-period EMA and the trendline connecting the Oct. 1 and Oct. 24 lows. A deeper drop could be in the offing if the spot finds acceptance below that key support.4-hour ChartTrend: Bearish USD/CAD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3174
    Daily change: -10 pips
    Daily change: -0.0758%
    Daily Open: 1.3184
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3137
    Daily SMA50: 1.3045
    Daily SMA100: 1.3068
    Daily SMA200: 1.2963
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3253
    Daily Low: 1.3156
    Weekly High: 1.3233
    Weekly Low: 1.3056
    Monthly High: 1.3172
    Monthly Low: 1.2783
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3193
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3216
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3143
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3101
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3046
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3239
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3294
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3336  

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Model projection: 6.9405 versus 6.9392 previous (13 pip

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Model projection: 6.9405 versus 6.9392 previous (13 pips higher; 46 pips higher from the previous official spot close)." "Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 6.9376 (16 pips lower from previous fix)."

Australia enjoyed a much-welcomed boost to employment figures this week, and the better-than-expected showing for the domestic Australian jobs market

Australia enjoyed a much-welcomed boost to employment figures this week, and the better-than-expected showing for the domestic Australian jobs market is prompting analysts at HSBC to lift their expectations for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).Key quotesLabour market numbers for October showed that jobs growth remains robust and the labour market is tightening. The unemployment rate held at the six-year low of 5.0%, with some states well below that level. A tightening labour market should support a further lift in wage growth in coming quarters: we expect RBA hikes to begin in mid-2019.

GBP/JPY Chart, 5-Minute The past week has seen the effects of constant Brexit headlines, with the Sterling whipping steadily from one end of the

The GBP/JPY 5-Minute candles have the pair struggling back up into near-term resistance from the 200-period moving average after a steep decline from Thursday's peaks near 147.95.GBP/JPY Chart, 5-MinuteThe past week has seen the effects of constant Brexit headlines, with the Sterling whipping steadily from one end of the chart to the other, but flagging technical confidence leaves the Guppy trading into the low end, currently trapped in the 144.00 - 145.00 zone.GBP/JPY Chart, 30-MinuteThe Guppy has been caught in a quickening pace of whipsaws on Brexit headlines, but remains constrained within a broad range from 142.50 to the 150.00 major handle, and directional indicators have gone sideways as the GBP/JPY spins around the 200-period moving average at 146.85.GBP/JPY Chart, 4-HourGBP/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 145.08
    Daily change: -4.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0276%
    Daily Open: 145.12
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.25
    Daily SMA50: 146.99
    Daily SMA100: 145.87
    Daily SMA200: 147.25
Levels:
    Daily High: 147.94
    Daily Low: 144.26
    Weekly High: 149.5
    Weekly Low: 146.86
    Monthly High: 149.52
    Monthly Low: 142.78
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 145.66
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 146.53
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 143.61
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 142.09
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 139.93
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 147.29
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 149.45
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 150.97  

Daily Chart Trend: Pullback likely NZD/USD Overview:     Last Price: 0.6828     Daily change: -3.0 pips     Daily change: -0.0439%     Daily

The NZD/USD closed above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) yesterday - its first since April 22 - and was last seen trading at 0.6826.A move above the 200-day EMA bolstered the already bullish technical setup of higher highs and higher lows, ascending 5-, 10-day EMAs and falling channel breakout.The RSI on the 4-hour chart is reporting overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is closing on overbought territory above 70. As a result, further gains are unlikely to happen immediately.The pair may witness a pullback to 5-day EMA of 0.6794 before rising further. A strong bounce from the ascending EMAs may yield a sustained rally to next major resistance of 0.7060 (June 6 high).Daily ChartTrend: Pullback likely NZD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.6828
    Daily change: -3.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0439%
    Daily Open: 0.6831
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6643
    Daily SMA50: 0.6595
    Daily SMA100: 0.6656
    Daily SMA200: 0.6894
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.6842
    Daily Low: 0.6787
    Weekly High: 0.682
    Weekly Low: 0.6632
    Monthly High: 0.663
    Monthly Low: 0.6424
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6821
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6808
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6798
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6766
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6744
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6852
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6874
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6907  

USD/JPY is consolidating in the Tokyo open and currently trades at 113.57, that is up from an overnight low of 113.10. The pair rallied in North Ameri

USD/JPY moving sideways after a rollercoaster ride in price action overnight.USD/JPY offered good two-way business on plenty of headlines rolling in, from Brexit to trade wars.USD/JPY is consolidating in the Tokyo open and currently trades at 113.57, that is up from an overnight low of 113.10. The pair rallied in North America as US stocks corrected the initial risk-off drop on news that China has made an opening bid to appease Washington with respect to their ongoing trade dispute ahead of the G20 summit on the 26th November - raising risk sentiment and prospects for Oct's 2018 high at 114.55 if a trade does get done.  As far as data went, analysts at Westpac noted that the "US retail sales rose a decent 0.8% in October though rebuilding efforts in the wake of Hurricane Florence via big jumps in auto and building materials sales likely inflated gains. Net of that and revisions, the report overall tracked on the weaker side: the “control group”, a subset of sales that excludes food services, gasoline, auto and building materials and feeds directly in GDP rose a modest 0.3% (0.4% expected) and Sep was revised to 0.3% from 0.5%."Brexit took the market's attentionHowever, markets were mostly [aying their attention to the Brexit headlines with plenty of angst still weighing on investor's risk appetite and prospects of slower global growth filtering its way back to damage the US economy was also a weight and supportive of the yen. USD/JPY was ending NY at 113.66. With respect to US yields, the US 10yr treasury yields dropped from 3.13% to 3.08% - a two-week low – but then recovered in late trade, while 2yr yields fell from 2.88% to 2.83%. The Fed fund futures yields continued to price the chance of another rate hike in December at 70%. USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 113.00 112.60 112.25    Resistance levels: 113.70 114.00 114.45Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the 4 hours chart shows that the pair tested a mild bullish 100 SMA before bouncing, now trading at daily highs: "Technical indicators also recovered after nearing oversold readings, holding below their midlines but with an increased upward strength, indicating that the pair could continue recovering ground. The key will be stocks´ behavior as a mirror of the market's sentiment. Should equities continue recovering, the pair could regain the 114.00 level, although a turn to the worst in sentiment will likely see it back challenging the 113.00/10 support zone."
 

According to unverified reporting by the UK's Daily Telegraph, the UK's ruling Conservative party's coalition deal with Northern Ireland's DUP could b

According to unverified reporting by the UK's Daily Telegraph, the UK's ruling Conservative party's coalition deal with Northern Ireland's DUP could be axed unless the Tories call for a no-confidence vote in PM Theresa May and install a new UK leader with more hard-line Brexit tendencies. according to the Daily Telegraph, whose sources currently remain largely unverified, the DUP would automatically vote down any withdrawal agreement tabled by PM May regardless of content, and the DUP is alleged to be playing hardball with the UK Tories, demanding a new UK leader. Theresa May's latest draft proposal has seen another round of ship-jumpers from within her own government, with Dominic Raab resigning as Brexit minister and Esther Mcvey vacating her seat as the work and pensions minister, leaving the prime minister further isolated within her own government, and key Tories within the UK government have allegedly already delivered letters recommending a no-confidence vote in PM May's government. The GBP/USD is unmoved in early Friday action as broader markets await more significant confirmations beyond the rumours.

On the political news, it was all attention to Brexit yet again with the UK’s political tensions heightened. Despite the Cabinet supporting the draft

Forex today saw UK ministers resigning over the Brexit plan which dominated headlines in Europe and price action trickled through into the North America session.But sentiment picked up in the US on reports that the next tranche of US tariffs on China were on hold. The greenback was bleeding and US yields sinking while US equities rose  - The AUD/USD probed towards 0.7300 again. On the political news, it was all attention to Brexit yet again with the UK’s political tensions heightened. Despite the Cabinet supporting the draft EU/UK withdrawal proposals, there were rolling headlines of Cabinet and junior ministerial resignations and more calls from Conservative MPs asking for a leadership challenge which has thrown the entire plan and deal back into jeopardy. Then, there was the news that China made an opening bid to the US on trade, however, its nothing that has not been heard before, which likely leaves the two sides to remain at an impasse, although it did raise spirits on Wall Street leading to a recovery in stocks. Trump and Xi are due to meet later this month on the 26th Nov in Buenas Aires at the G20 summit, but we will see if the US responds prior to that and anything positive that looks like progress towards finding a solution to their trade dispute will be bullish for risk-sensitive markets.  As far as data went, analysts at Westpac noted that the "US retail sales rose a decent 0.8% in October though rebuilding efforts in the wake of Hurricane Florence via big jumps in auto and building materials sales likely inflated gains. Net of that and revisions, the report overall tracked on the weaker side: the “control group”, a subset of sales that excludes food services, gasoline, auto and building materials and feeds directly in GDP rose a modest 0.3% (0.4% expected) and Sep was revised to 0.3% from 0.5%."Currency actionEUR/USD was pretty choppy in Thursday, price action that is likely to stick around considering how the Brexit saga is playing out of which the euro gets caught up in on cross flows and the uncertainties that prevail for the Eurozone. The pair moved between a range of 1.1271 and a high of 1.1362 with good two-way business for the scalpers. The single unit bottomed out on the Brexit headlines while rallied on dollar weakness and a slight switch up in sentiment with concerns for global growth seen impacting the US down the line. However, the IT/DE and US/EUR yield spreads continue to play into the hands of the bears dragging on rallies. EUR/USD ended the NY session at 1.1332. Cable was heavy into the North American close with endless angst over Brexit progress which has thrown PM May's leadership into jeopardy as resignations of ministers were reported throughout the day. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab cabinet minister Esther McVey resignations less than just 24 hours after she PM May had received the approval of her cabinet for a draft Brexit plan. GBP/USD ended the session at 1.2765 having travelled between Thursday's range of 1.3030-1.2725. As for EUR/GBP, there was a strong Brexit rally and the pair jumped higher by  +1.99%, ending New York trade at 0.8880 on heightened UK risks. USD/JPY was reaching the 38.2% Fib retracement target at the 113.09 late European session lows. However, in NY trade, profit taking ensued and China/US trade talk news lifted risk appetite and US stocks, sending the pair back to 113.70. However, but the bid from China to appease Washington is probably too little too late so traders will have to wait and see might come of potential talks between Xi and Trump at the Buenos Aires G20 summit later on in the month. USD/JPY ended NY at 113.66. US 10yr treasury yields dropped from 3.13% to 3.08% - a two-week low – but then recovered in late trade, while 2yr yields fell from 2.88% to 2.83%. The Fed fund futures yields continued to price the chance of another rate hike in December at 70%. As for the commodity complex, despite the turmoil, the complex was mostly higher on Thursday and metals were seen bid on the prospects for a lower USD. AUD/USD, subsequently has a look in at 0.73 the figure, falling just a couple of pips short of the target travelling from 0.7250 and once again taking on the 23.6% fibo of 2018's decline with bulls lining up for a test of the 0.73 handle and key resistance of R3 at 0.7330. Key notes from US session:Wall Street stages decisive recovery on ThursdayWhat no-confidence vote means for Brexit and Pound?     

The AUD/USD heads into Friday trading near 0.7275 after a rough Thursday session saw the Aussie get propped up by better-than-expected employment figu

Friday looks set for tense action as the US reaffirms January step-up of China tariffs.A thin calendar leaves the Aussie exposed to headline-driven flows.The AUD/USD heads into Friday trading near 0.7275 after a rough Thursday session saw the Aussie get propped up by better-than-expected employment figures, then trade in rough whips just beneath the 0.7300 handle. The Friday calendar is free and clear of any meaningful data for the Aussie, leaving Pacific-Asia session traders to grapple with trade war headlines, following recent announcements that the US, despite an apparent thawing in talks between them and China, still intends to jack up the tariff rate on Chinese goods to 25% beginning in January. The planned move will likely see trade rhetoric keep a sharp edge in the weeks leading up to the G20 summit at the end of this month, where US President Trump and China's Xi Jingping are slated for a sideline trade meeting. AUD/USD levels to watch Thanks to Friday's above-expectations reading of Australian Unemployment, the AUD is leaning into a bullish technical stance according to FXstreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "from a technical point of view an in the short term, the pair is bullish, as in the 4 hours chart, the pair continues developing above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, which advances above the larger ones, while technical indicators hold well into positive ground, lacking directional strength at the time being. The high for this month is 0.7302, while September one comes at 0.7314, the level to surpass to trigger a bullish continuation up to 0.7360,  where the pair has multiple daily highs and lows from early this year." Support levels: 0.7235 0.7200 0.7165    Resistance levels: 0.7315 0.7360 0.7400

EUR/USD was trodden down overnight over Brexit turmoil with UK ministers quitting their positions in protest to PM May's negotiated deal with the EU t

EUR/USD has fallen back to a low of 1.1321 as profits are taken out of the rally from 1.1271 European lows. EUR/USD has been choppy and weighed upon due to Brexit headlines and a wider IT-DE and DE-US yield spread.EUR/USD was trodden down overnight over Brexit turmoil with UK ministers quitting their positions in protest to PM May's negotiated deal with the EU that effectively does not meet the UK's electorate's vote.Key Brexit headlines:PM vows to fight on: 'Am I going to see this through? Yes'. Four ministers quit Government over Brexit deal. Dominic Raab and Esther McVey resign from Cabinet. Michael Gove offered the job of Brexit Secretary. Gove will only take it if he can renegotiate PM's deal. Jacob Rees-Mogg submits a letter of no confidence. Tory MPs could trigger a vote of no confidence in PM.What no-confidence vote means for Brexit and Pound?The threat of a challenge to PM May's authority plunges European politics into higher levels of uncertainty.  It increases the chances that the U.K. will exit with no deal at all, risking significant economic disruption for both sides of the deal. Time is running out to negotiate a divorce deal with the European Union before the U.K.’s looming exit in March 2019, and Brexit turmoil is roiling broader financial markets - (EUR trades as a derivative to risk sentiment and was hammered in the European session). US dollar broadly weakerHowever, EUR/USD got a lift when the dollar buckled despite the U.S. Census Bureau US retail sales data in October increasing by 0.8%, exceeding the market's expectations of 0.5%. The move coincided with a reversal on Wall Street that enabled the euro to rally with an unwind in yen longs supporting EUR/JPY's recovery.  There was also some profit taking in the dollar on China/US trade talk news. The headlines that China had moved a piece on the chess board in the Us favour started to lift risk appetite. However, Beijing's bid to appease Washington is probably too little too late. However, due to broadly dire global economic and political conditions, US growth could be hampered which is subsequently impeding on the dollar's advance in an already crowded trade. Meanwhile, domestically and looking ahead, the eurozone October inflation report should see core CPI unchanged at around 1.1% but a miss to the downside will likely remind markets of the divergence between the Fed and other Central Banks falling in favour of the greenback again - EUR/USD is faded ahead of the release, settling in North America at 1.1328. EUR/USD levelsSupport levels: 1.1280 1.1250 1.1215   Resistance levels:  1.1355 1.1390 1.1425 Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the EUR/USD pair trades marginally up for the day, above the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily decline, with a mild-positive tone in its 4 hours chart: "The price bounced quickly after testing its 20 SMA, while technical indicators resumed their advances, maintaining their upward slopes in positive ground but below early highs. Additionally, the pair remains below firmly bearish 100 and 200 SMA. The 50% retracement at 1.1355 is still in the way for a steeper recovery, while the bearish risk will increase on a break below 1.1250, with scope then to retest the yearly low at 1.1215."
   

Following earlier reports that US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross affirmed America's plan to increase Chinese tariffs to 25% in January, US Trade Re

Following earlier reports that US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross affirmed America's plan to increase Chinese tariffs to 25% in January, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is backpedaling amidst criticism, claiming that he never explicitly said that the next tranche of US tariffs on China was on hold amidst rising potential for talks between the countries. It was heavily inferred from a meeting between leading business executives and Lighthizer that the US was putting the next stage of the Sino-US trade war on hold as the two sides look closer to returning to the negotiating table, and Lighthizer's earlier hints at easing trade tensions have been torpedoed.

S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which can potentially be bullish. The RSI is turning bullish, while the MACD

S&P500 daily chartThe S&P500 an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which can potentially be bullish.The RSI is turning bullish, while the MACD and Stochastic are already in positive territories.  S&P500 4-hour chartThe S&P500 found strong support at the 2,680.00 level as the bulls reclaimed the 50-period simple moving average (SMA). Technical indicators are picking up speed suggesting continued bullish momentum. The bull target is at 2,820.00 swing high. A bear breakout below 2,680.00 would be considered rather bearish.  S&P500 30-minute chartThe market is almost in full bullish mode on the 30-minute chart. The S&P500 broke above the 50 and 100 SMA while technical indicators are in positive territories. 
Additional key levels at a glance:

  SP 500 Overview:
    Last Price: 2733.25
    Daily change: 3.2e+3 pips
    Daily change: 1.17%
    Daily Open: 2701.75
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 2730.8
    Daily SMA50: 2816.8
    Daily SMA100: 2831.22
    Daily SMA200: 2768.04
Levels:
    Daily High: 2748
    Daily Low: 2686.5
    Weekly High: 2818.75
    Weekly Low: 2713.5
    Monthly High: 2939.5
    Monthly Low: 2604.5
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2709.99
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2724.51
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 2676.17
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 2650.58
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 2614.67
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 2737.67
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 2773.58
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 2799.17  
Scroll Top