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Daily Market Analysis and Forex News

Bitcoin: Set for potential price swings?

  • Bitcoin could be rocked by Fed minutes & NFP
  • Watch out for Mt. Gox developments
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↑ 2.3% & ↓ 1.9%
  • Bearish channel breached but resistance at $63500

Thanks to the incoming US jobs report and developments concerning the failed Mt. Gox exchange, this could be a wild week for Bitcoin!

Despite prices rebounding from sub-$60k, sentiment remains fragile with a major liquidation event and uncertainty over US interest rates keeping bears in the game.

Looking at the technical picture, Bitcoin remains in a range on the weekly charts with potential resistance forming around $63500.

With all the above said, here are 4 things that could rock Bitcoin this week:

    1) FOMC minutes

The Fed minutes on Wednesday will be an appetizer before the main course on Friday.

Investors will be seeking insight into why Fed officials lowered their expectations for 2024 rate cuts despite growth and unemployment projections unchanged.

  • Bitcoin may slip if the minutes sound more hawkish than expected.
  • Should the minutes strike a dovish note, Bitcoin prices may edge higher.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Fed minutes have triggered upside moves of as much as 1.6% or declines of 1.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.


    2) Bankrupt Tokyo-based exchange Mt. Gox

From early July 2024, collapsed Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox is expected to start paying back users roughly $9 billion worth of stolen tokens.

Imagine losing 1 bitcoin worth roughly $500 back in 2014 and then receiving that same Bitcoin today worth around $60,000. What would you do?

There are expectations around the receivers of the stolen tokens cashing out, potentially triggering steep losses on Bitcoin.


    3) US jobs report

The incoming US jobs report is likely to influence bets around when the Fed cuts rates in H2.

Markets expect the US economy to have created 200k jobs in June, compared with the blockbuster 272k in the previous month while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%.

It is worth keeping in mind that cryptocurrencies have shown sensitivity to interest rates due to their risky nature.

  • A soft jobs report may push Bitcoin prices higher.
  • If the jobs data exceeds market forecasts, this could drag Bitcoin prices lower.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 2.3% or declines of 1.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.


    4) Technical forces

Prices have breached the daily bearish channel, but resistance can be found at $63500.

  • Sustained weakness below $63500 may encourage a decline back towards $59000.
  • A solid daily close above $63500 could open a path towards the 100-day SMA and 50-day SMA.


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