Financial markets have started the final week of June and of the quarter in subdued mood with a modest bid to the dollar amid narrow ranges across the FX spectrum. Many traders are already looking to the US employment data in the form of the non-farm payrolls report and average hourly earnings which is released on the first Friday of every month. That said, we do have other risk events to look out for this week including Eurozone inflation figures, an OPEC meeting and ISM manufacturing data out of the US.

Wall street’s fear gauge, the Vix, has picked up off the lows but is still below its long-term average as stocks are trading in the red in Europe. After making new record highs at the end of last week on the back of President Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure deal, there is still a long way to go before that becomes ratified and passed. In the meantime, worries over the spread of the delta variant globally are concerning many, even as vaccination rates pick up.

USD mixed to start NFP week

With the hawks on the Fed hopeful that the headline NFP print comes in above one million job gains, another softer than expected jobs report would cast a doubt over any early rowing back in policy measures. That would be the third straight month that the number has disappointed after the 559k and 278k jobs reported in May and April.

The dollar is treading water at the moment locked between the highs of the recent move and last week’s lows where the 200-day SMA resides. US yields remain materially low which means investors will continue to look for better returns elsewhere over the medium term while this situation prevails.

Sterling leading major on the day

The tennis major at Wimbledon kicks off today and with many traders also glancing nervously at a certain soccer match tomorrow, minds may wander over the next few sessions! However, GBP has started the week on a strong footing (a good sign for sporting endeavours?) with the new health secretary firmly on the side of ending current restrictions as planned on 19 July. In what is a quiet week for UK data, we do get Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on Thursday to focus the minds.

Cable is holding Friday’s range so far in the low 1.39s with the 100-day SMA at 1.3952 acting as near-term resistance ahead of the 1.40 barrier. Last Tuesday’s low at 1.3862 should offer decent support after which 1.38 is a much more significant level.  

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