The so called Trump rally has been ongoing for USD dollar bulls in recent times, and this can be very clearly seen on the USDJPY, as the market has done an about turn and is currently seeking risk than the previous attempt to hedge its bets. So far the rapid ascent of the USDJPY has been something that the Bank of Japan will be happy with, as the market continues to scrutinise the Japanese economy and its ability to generate inflation. Abenomics might have had a struggle but the recent Trump change in the US economy might be the helping hand it so needs to get ahead. Despite the drop today in Core CPI to 0.1% (0.2% exp) and the Philly fed manufacturing index dipping lower; the market continued to rally on the basis that unemployment claims were better than expected. As the market continues to believe that Trump will look to spend and stimulate the economy, especially around the areas of infrastructure.
For the USDJPY the bull rally has been strong and any admission of running of steam looks off the cards for the time being as it continues to charge forward. The only question is will it pause and there are some strong resistance levels on the horizon. So far 111.843 is likely to be the first major level for the USDJPY as it climbs higher, but I would also look even further to 114.030 for the next level of resistance. Any pull backs on the chart are likely to play of the 20 day moving average which is closely following the bullish movements that we have seen. If we do see a breakthrough of the 20 day moving and an ABC pattern forming I would expect a bounce to occur around support at 109.147 at this stage. Unless we see higher highs over the next few days.
The Australian economy is struggling at present after the recent Reserve Bank of Australia comments it comes a slight surprise, but the unemployment figures were much worse than expected coming in at 9.8k (16k exp). I've voiced concern over Australian unemployment figures as they have shown temporary jobs taking centre stage and this does not equal a strong economy at the end of the day. But for now the unemployment rate has remained static at 5.6% which will be somewhat of a positive sign. However, going forward the AUDUSD will struggle as the USD strengthens and Australia's economy shows signs of weakness.
On the charts the bears are firmly in control of the AUDUSD as it dips down the charts being chased by the 20 and 50 day moving average. Right now with the current speed of movement and the volatility the only stable support level possible is looking like 0.7328 and 0.7226. The question is now how long can the bears take control before the Trump euphoria wears off. But in reality it may be a case of only just getting started as he has not even come to power yet.
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