Amaran risiko: Berdagang adalah berisiko. Modal anda berhadapan risiko. Exinity Limited dikawal selia oleh FSC (Mauritius).
Amaran risiko: Berdagang adalah berisiko. Modal anda berhadapan risiko. Exinity Limited dikawal selia oleh FSC (Mauritius).
Khamis, April 25, 2019

The Bank of Japan kept key policy tools unchanged, as expected, a few minutes before press time, leaving the USD/JPY largely unaffected near 112.00. T

USD/JPY has barely moved in response to BOJ’s decision to keep key policy tools unchanged. The downward revision of the growth and inflation forecasts could push the JPY lower during the day ahead. The Bank of Japan kept key policy tools unchanged, as expected, a few minutes before press time, leaving the USD/JPY largely unaffected near 112.00.  The central bank rates kept the interest rates at -10bps while maintaining 10yr JGB yield target at 0.00%. The BOJ vote was 8 to 1, leaving its pledge to buy JGBs unchanged so that its holdings increase at an annual pace of around 80 trillion yen. The decision on maintaining its interest rate targets was made by a 7-2 vote with board members Goushi Kataoka and Yutaka Harada dissenting.BOJ modified forward guidance on interest ratesThe policy statement said the interest rates will remain very low for an extended period, at least through spring 2020. Inflation forecasts revised lowerThe median core consumer price inflation (CPI) forecast for fiscal year 2020/21 has been revised lower to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent.  Further, real GDP forecast for fiscal year 2020/21 has been revised lower to 0.9 percent from 1 percent forecasted in January.  The downward revision of the inflation and GDP forecasts could weigh over the Japanese yen during the day ahead. Technical Levels 

Reuters reports the following headlines on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) economic assessment. To take steps contributing to continuation of powerful easin

Reuters reports the following headlines on the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) economic assessment. To take steps contributing to continuation of powerful easing. To expand eligible collateral for BOJ's provision of credit. Median core CPI forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at +1.4% vs. 1.5% in Jan. Median core CPI forecast for fiscal 2019/20 at +1.1% vs. 1.1% in Jan.

EUR/JPY trades near 125.00 during early Thursday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced its monetary policy decision.

The BOJ held its monetary policy unchanged while trimming growth and inflation forecasts.All eyes on a speech from BoJ’s Kuroda for now.EUR/JPY trades near 125.00 during early Thursday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced its monetary policy decision. The Japanese central bank left its monetary measures unchanged but took a step back to trim core consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts. Poor German IFO data dragged the German Bunds beneath 0.0% and triggered across the board selling of the Euro (EUR). Japanese Yen (JPY) remained on the upside due to its safe-haven appeal when risk-tone was a bit heavier. Global risk barometer 10-year treasury yields from the US dropped nearly 5 basis points to 2.52% where it presently is. With the BOJ rate statement and quarterly report already out, investors may await comments from the Governor Haruhiko Kuroda for fresh clues.  In a case of the Eurozone economic calendar, there prevails a lack of data for today but recent pessimism emanating from regional statistics and political plays before Spanish election continue to haunt the EUR against majority its counterparts.EUR/JPY Technical AnalysisHaving slipped beneath 100-day and 50-day SMA, the quote continues to remain weak unless clearing 125.60/65 area for one more time. As a result, a downside a break of 124.80 can recall 124.40 while an upward sloping trend-line since January 04 can challenge sellers around 124.00 then after. Should there be an uptick in prices beyond 50-day and 100-day simple moving average (SMA), 126.10 and an immediate descending trend-line at 126.80 could please buyers.

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concluded its 2-day April monetary policy review meeting and made no changes to its monetary policy settings, hol

On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concluded its 2-day April monetary policy review meeting and made no changes to its monetary policy settings, holding rates at -10bps while maintaining 10yr JGB yield target at 0.00%. The BOJ vote was 8 to 1, leaving its pledge to buy JGBs unchanged so that its holdings increase at an annual pace of around 80 trln yen. The decision on maintaining its interest rate targets was made by a 7-2 vote with board members Goushi Kataoka and Yutaka Harada dissenting. The central bank modified its forward guidance, adopted in July, now saying "will keep very low-interest rates levels for extended period of time at least through around spring 2020."

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (-0.1%)

Further comments are out by the Brian Hook, the US Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State, made the comme

Further comments are out by the Brian Hook, the US Special Representative for Iran and Senior Policy Advisor to the Secretary of State, made the comment during a call with reporters on Thursday, as cited by Reuters. Hook said that the US sanctions against Iran have denied its government more than $10 billion in oil revenue.

With China’s economy is recovering pretty well, the best thing to do is to wait and watch whether another cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) i

With China’s economy is recovering pretty well, the best thing to do is to wait and watch whether another cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) is necessary.  China had cut the RRR ratio in January with an aim to help the economy absorb shocks from Trump’s trade war. The move seemingly worked as the annualized growth rate stabilized at 6.4 percent in the first quarter.  That said, the central bank is working on implementing lower RRR for banks which cater to small private companies, according to Xinhua.  

While China’s economy has stabilized and is showing upward momentum, it’s outbound shipments remain vulnerable to falling global demand, China’s Stats

While China’s economy has stabilized and is showing upward momentum, it’s outbound shipments remain vulnerable to falling global demand, China’s Stats Bureau chief reportedly said on Thursday.  China’s real GDP growth stabilized at 6.4 percent (annualised) in the first quarter, beating expectations of a drop to 6.3 percent, according to the official data released earlier this month.  Further, the PMI numbers, also released in the first week of April, showed the manufacturing activity expanded in March, ending sequential decline. 

China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reports the latest statement issued by the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), citing that it

China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reports the latest statement issued by the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), citing that it will set up a policy framework to implement relatively low Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) for small and medium banks. The bank also said that it will use funds released from lower RRR for small and medium banks to support private and small companies.

The spread between the yields on the two-year Australian and US government bonds hit multi-decade lows on Wednesday. The spread fell from -90 basis po

The spread between the yields on the two-year Australian and US government bonds hit multi-decade lows on Wednesday.  The spread fell from -90 basis points to -104 basis – the lowest since September 1997 – after the official data released at 02:00 gmt yesterday showed the cost of living in Australia, as represented by the consumer price index, cooled in the first quarter.  Evidence of weaker inflationary pressures boosted the probability of an early RBA rate cut, possibly in May. As a result, bond prices picked up a bid.  Notably, the yield on the three-year government bond yield hit a record low of 1.25 percent.  The narrowing of yield differentials indicates the path of least resistance for the AUD is to the downside. 

USD/IDR is trading in the green for the fifth consecutive day and is currently flirting with the upper edge of a bearish channel created over the last

USD/IDR is trading in the green for the fifth consecutive day and is currently flirting with the upper edge of a bearish channel created over the last six weeks. Daily chartAs seen above, the pair is pushing against the channel hurdle of 14,145.  A close higher would confirm a violation of the bearish lower highs and lower lows pattern (falling channel) and open the doors to 4,251 (March 29 high).  The 14-day relative strength index is already flashing a falling channel breakout. So, USD/IDR looks set to find acceptance above the channel resistance at 14,145.  A strong rejection at the channel hurdle, if followed by a quick drop below 14,089 (March 21 low), would weaken the bull case.Trend: BullishPivot points 
NZD/USD is in oversold territory according to stochastics and RSI.A bullish correction could be on the cards from this key level where the price is meeting the flash crash lows.On a Fib retracement basis, the 23.6% comes in at early April support as a keen target initially.Alternatively, 0.6500 could be on the cards meeting Oct and Sep support.        

GBP/JPY trades near 144.60 ahead of the bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy meeting scheduled on early Thursday.

Doubts over the UK PM May’s future leadership and Brexit uncertainty gain attention ahead of the BOJ meeting.200-day SMA continues to become crucial levels for immediate direction.GBP/JPY trades near 144.60 ahead of the bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy meeting scheduled on early Thursday. The quote remained mostly unchanged on Wednesday but is on a back-foot off-late due to Brexit pessimism. Despite senior conservatives give some relief to the UK PM Theresa May after her position was to be challenged recently, the BBC reports that there are many Tories who still wished to call an emergency general meeting to oust the PM. The same is likely weighing on the British Pound (GBP) recently. On the Brexit front, PM May is likely to ask the parliament members (MPs) to vote on the final departure proposal sometimes during next week, the Sky News conveys. Looking at the Japanese front, JPY remained a bit positive ahead of the BOJ meeting outcome. The policymakers aren’t expected to announce a change in the present measures.  However, the quarterly outlook report may end up revising the growth and inflation forecasts down considering repeated miss by both the headline data. Also important will be the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s press conference after the rate statement.GBP/JPY Technical AnalysisUnless declining below 144.55 mark comprising 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the GBP/JPY pair can continue aiming 145.20 and then to 50-day SMA level of 145.85. On the flipside, 144.00 and 143.80/70 area comprising 100-day SMA and multiple lows since February 22 seems crucial to observe.

Reuters is out with the latest comments from a US official, as he says that “we are working with partners to ensure sufficient oil supply in global ma

Reuters is out with the latest comments from a US official, as he says that “we are working with partners to ensure sufficient oil supply in global market.” On Monday, the US announced its decision to call off the sanction waivers on the Iranian oil importers, with the Asian buyers likely to be the most hit.

The South Korean Won (KRW) extended its slide versus the US dollar (USD) following the forex intervention remarks from South Korea. South Korean Deput

The South Korean Won (KRW) extended its slide versus the US dollar (USD) following the forex intervention remarks from South Korea. South Korean Deputy Finance Minister was reported as saying that they will take steps if there are any abnormal moves seen in foreign exchange markets. His comments come after South Korea reported the worst economic growth in the first quarter since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). South Korean Q1 2019 GDP arrived at -0.3% q/q vs. expected +0.3% q/q, worst since Q4 2008 while on an annualized basis, it arrived at +1.8 % (vs. expected of +2.5%. The USD/KRW cross hit the highest level since January 2017 at 1,161.39 on the forex intervention talks.

AUD/JPY is on the defensive, having dropped 1.02 percent yesterday – the biggest single-day loss since March 22. The currency pair is currently tradin

AUD/JPY suffered its biggest-single drop in four weeks yesterday. AUD took a beating due to a below-forecast Aussie inflation number. BOJ policy exhaustion may put a bid under the Japanese yen. AUD/JPY is on the defensive, having dropped 1.02 percent yesterday – the biggest single-day loss since March 22.  The currency pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day at 78.65, having hit a low of 78.39 on Wednesday – a level last seen on March 29. The Aussie dollar was offered across the board yesterday after a below-forecast Australian first quarter consumer price inflation release boosted expectations of an interest rate cut in May.  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) moved away from its long-held tightening bias in February. Major investment banks have forecasted rate cuts in the second half of this year ever since. Focus on BOJThe Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep the key policy tools unchanged today.  Japan’s Finance Minister Aso was out on the wires earlier this week calling the BOJ’s fight against deflation a mistake. Aso’s comments showed growing exhaustion over the unprecedented monetary stimulus in the upper echelons of the government.  As a result, the central bank is unlikely to provide any dovish surprise. Kuroda and Co. will likely project the central bank as the one that has tools to do more if required. That, however, is unlikely to push JPY lower.  In fact, markets may push JPY higher in response to policy exhaustion, bolstering the already bearish pressures around the AUD/JPY cross.  The rate decision is due at 02:00 GMT. Technical Levels 
Technically, bears can look to break below 200-DMA around the confluence of 1249/50% Fibo area. There is bullish divergence on the momentum indicators such as RSI and stochastics.On the upside, bulls will need to get and stay above 1275 and then 1280 before 1303 with a look in at 1308 (61.8% Fibo) and the trendline resistance.

Despite repeated attempts, EUR/GBP couldn’t clear 0.8680/85 horizontal resistance comprising current month high.

EUR/GBP trades near 0.8640 during early Thursday. Despite repeated attempts, the pair couldn’t clear 0.8680/85 horizontal resistance comprising current month high. As a result, chances of its pullback to 0.8590 support including lows marked on April 08 and 10 seem brighter. Though, 0.8620 may offer immediate halt during the downside. Should there be increased southward pressure on prices under 0.8590, 0.8560, 0.8515 and 0.8470 are likely consecutive rest-points to appear on the chart. Alternatively, 50% Fibonacci retracement of February to March decline near 0.8655 seem adjacent resistance ahead of 0.8680-85. Given the pair’s successful rally beyond 0.8685, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.8700 and 0.8740/45 horizontal-region can gain Bulls’ attention.EUR/GBP 4-Hour chartTrend: Bearish  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7307 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7205. The central bank has skipped open market

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7307 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7205. The central bank has skipped open market operations today and has drained net ¥80 billion from the system. 

Reduced risk appetite is having a negative impact on the Chinese companies, according to ratings agency Moody’s. The impact if particularly being felt

Reduced risk appetite is having a negative impact on the Chinese companies, according to ratings agency Moody’s.  The impact if particularly being felt via liquidity pressures on the firms, Moody’s said on Thursday.  For instance, investors refrain from buying bonds of weaker companies during risk aversion, leading to a liquidity crunch. 

On a lesser scale, US stocks may have contributed to some weakness in the yen, but figuring the S&P and NASDAQ were printing fresh highs, it's hardly

USD/JPY is currently trading at 112.20 between a range of 112.05 and 112.23, down from the overnight high of 112.39. USD/JPY was on the rampage overnight as investors weighed up the divergence between the U.S economy and that of the EU for which sent the DXY higher. On a lesser scale, US stocks may have contributed to some weakness in the yen, but figuring the S&P and NASDAQ were printing fresh highs, it's hardly the basis for Japanese pension fund repatriation. Its all down to dollar flows and considering the DXY basket is weighted to the yen by 13.6%, the second largest contributor, its not unusual to see large moves in the pair when the greenback is the driver and stops are triggered - in this case, through 112.10.  Looking ahead, we have the BoJ and considering the thin markets, on a non-event there will be no action but should there be a significant surprise, the lack of liquidity could be a difficult trade one way or the other and large swings could be on the cards. Traders are more likely to wait to get involved with US data on the cards this week with the main event coming in as US GDP. "We expect GDP to advance 2.3% q/q saar in Q1, largely keeping with the economy’s Q4 pace. Despite a notable slowdown in consumer spending, we anticipate an offsetting shift from negative to positive contributions for net exports and government spending. Notably, residential investment likely contributed positively to growth for the first time since 2017," analysts at TD Securities explained.USD/JPY levelsMeanwhile, from a technical point of view, the USD/JPY pair was ending the well above a still flat 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart and above its recent highs, as noted by Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet: "Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have left the neutral territory, offering strong upward slopes within positive ground, somehow anticipating additional gains ahead. In the mentioned chart, the pair bounced from the 100 SMA, which loses upward momentum but keeps providing an intraday support at around 111.60."

The GBP/USD pair dropped to nine-week low and is struggling near 50% Fibonacci retracement of its January to March rise on early Thursday.

The GBP/USD pair trades near 1.2900 during early Thursday. The quote dropped to nine-week low and is struggling near 50% Fibonacci retracement of its January to March rise. At the moment, 100-day and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) confluence region near 1.2960-65 seem nearby important resistance for the pair, a break of which can propel prices to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3020. Though, a downward sloping trend-line since mid-March 1.3035 may challenge buyers past-1.3020. Given the pair’s ability to cross 1.3035, chances of its rally to 1.3130 can’t be denied. On the flipside, 1.2820 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2790 could offer adjacent support to the quote during further downside. If bears refrain from respecting oversold conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and conquer 1.2790 support, 1.2710, 1.2650 and 1.2600 should become their favorites.GBP/USD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Brent oil could be in for a pullback below $74.00, as the 4-hour chart is reporting a double top pattern and the bearish divergence of the relative st

Brent oil could be in for a pullback below $74.00, as the 4-hour chart is reporting a double top pattern and the bearish divergence of the relative strength index. 4-hour chartAs seen above, $74.70 has emerged as strong resistance this week.  More importantly, the several attempts made to beat that resistance have been accompanied by lower highs (bearish divergence) on the relative strength index (RSI).  As a result, Brent could confirm a double top breakdown with a move below $73.96 – neckline support. That would create room for a fall back to $73.24.  The case for a pullback, however, would weaken if the newfound resistance of $74.70 is breached. Trend: Teasing pullbackPivot point 

Sky News came out with a news report that the UK May plans withdrawal agreement bill vote next week following leadership reprieve.

After senior conservatives turned down rules to allow a leadership challenge, Sky News came out with a news report stating that the UK PM Theresa May is preparing for her next Brexit battle, with a plan to give MPs a vote on the key piece of legislation to take the UK out of the European Union as early as next week. The report further said that the prime minister is now getting ready to ask MPs to ratify her Brexit deal by introducing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB), which enshrines her Brexit plan into UK law, in the coming days. It should be noted that the GBP/USD pair dropped to the lowest in nine-weeks on Wednesday and is near to the same 1.2900 area during early Thursday.

Early on Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will conclude its latest monetary policy meeting approximately at 2:00 GMT.

Early on Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will conclude its latest monetary policy meeting approximately at 2:00 GMT. The central bank is widely expected not to announce any changes in its key policy actions by holding short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and keep directing 10-year government bond yields toward zero. However, crucial to the Japanese Yen (JPY) traders will quarterly outlook report and comments from the Governor Haruhiko Kuroda during a press conference after the rate statement. TD Securities expect a downgrade to growth and inflation as they said: The Bank of Japan will meet, where we share the consensus view that all operational targets will remain unchanged. We will be keyed in on a more thoughtful discussion about financial stability risks however, as this has gained traction in recent months and the latest dealer survey has shown an appreciable deterioration in JGB conditions. The updated Outlook Report should show another downgrade to growth and inflation, where the latter is at risk of not returning to target within the BOJ's forecast horizon. Alternatively, Societe Generale signals BOJ will hold its positive economic assessment unchanged. They further said: The BoJ policy board will likely decide to maintain its current monetary easing framework at the April monetary policy meeting on 24-25 April. In the new outlook report, the policy board will likely maintain its positive assessment of Japan's underlying economic strength, while continuing to be cautious of the recent weakness in economic data.  How could it affect the USD/JPY?Despite recent improvements in Japan data, the Asian economy is still far from the central bank's optimistic targets for which questions have already been raised. With this, Governor Kuroda might be forced to be a bit dovish and the same can be inferred from quarterly outlook report. As a result, the USD/JPY is more likely to witness a short-term upside if the central-bank sounds weak in their report and communication from the Governor. However, JPY’s safe-haven appeal could restrict the quote’s upside afterward. Technically, the USD/JPY pair is heading towards 112.55 resistance level with 113.20 and 113.70 in focus afterward. Should the pair declines, 112.00 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) near 111.50 seem important for sellers to watch.Key NotesUSD/JPY analysis: yen weakens further ahead of BOJ USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Dips to descending trend-channel support might still be seen as a buying opportunityAbout BoJ Rate DecisionBoJ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Japan. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the JPY. Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is negative, or bearish.

A slowing economy and prolonged Brexit uncertainty is seen keeping the Bank of England (BOE) from raising the interest rate until August 2020, the Nat

A slowing economy and prolonged Brexit uncertainty is seen keeping the Bank of England (BOE) from raising the interest rate until August 2020, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said on Thursday, according to Reuters.  While the think tank has pushed back by a year its previous forecast of a BOE rate hike made in February this year, a recent Reuters poll showed most economists now expect the central bank to raise borrowing costs early next year. So far, the British central bank has raised rates twice to 0.75 percent from the record low of 0.25 percent

EUR/JPY is non-directional on the charts, with a fake breakout through triangle resistance for bulls looking for more than just the 127 handle and res

EUR/JPY is non-directional on the charts, with a fake breakout through triangle resistance for bulls looking for more than just the 127 handle and resistance and the 200-DMA.
The cross subsequently fell back to the prior resistance and tested the 23.6% Fibo which gave way to the 124.80s.
On a break of 124.80, risk would be for a subsequent test of trend line support guarding the 38.2% Fibo.
Below 123.40 (Jan 7 and Jan 15 lows) opens of the 50% Fibo at 123.02.
A break there will likely see the price continue in its southerly trajectory, extending last September's bear trend.

Having surged to 16-week high, overbought RSI conditions and important resistance-confluence can challenge USD/CAD buyers around 1.3565/70 area.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading around 1.3500 versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Asian sessions on Thursday. The Loonie pair surged to a 16-week high on Wednesday after the BoC meeting and is still in the positive territory. However, overbought RSI conditions and near to important resistance-confluence can challenge buyers. While 1.3525 can act as immediate resistance for the quote, an ascending trend-line from late-January and multiple lows from December 24 to January 02 may question the strength of buyers around 1.3565/70.  Adding to the buyers’ challenge can be overbought conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Should the Bulls manage to conquer 1.3570, 1.3610/15 and 1.3665 may offer halts to its rally targeting 1.3700 round-figure. On the downside, March month highs near 1.3470 may act as nearby support, a break of which may recall 1.3440 and 1.3400. Though, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3330 and an ascending support-line from October 2018 at 1.3250 could restrict further declines.USD/CAD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks rose from previous ¥528.5B to ¥1426.6B in April 19

Japan Foreign Bond Investment increased to ¥1170B in April 19 from previous ¥591.1B

Having bounced off 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the GBP/JPY pair is on the bids around 144.80 on early Thursday.

Having bounced off 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the GBP/JPY pair is on the bids around 144.80. Considering the strength of support, chances of the quote pullback to 145.20 and then to 50-day SMA level of 145.85 seem brighter. However, a downward sloping trend-line from mid-March could challenge the follow-on buyers near 146.30. In a case where prices manage to conquer 146.30 upside barrier on a daily closing basis, 147.00, 147.40 and 148.45/50 are likely intermediate halts during the run to March high near 148.85. Meanwhile, a D1 close under 144.55 number comprising 200-day SMA may immediately take the pair to 144.00 but 143.80/70 area including 100-day SMA and multiple lows since February 22 could challenge sellers then after. If at all Bears refrain from respecting 143.70, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January – March upside at 142.50 and 140.90 can become their favorites.GBP/JPY daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) below forecasts (0.3%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.3%)

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) below expectations (2.5%) in 1Q: Actual (1.8%)

AUD/JPY trades near 78.65 during early Thursday as traders await monetary policy meeting decisions from the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

Dovish bets on RBA and pessimism surrounding rest of the globe flashed 4-week low.BOJ meeting with quarterly outlook report is in the spotlight for now.Sellers need to break 16-week long support-line to justify their strength.AUD/JPY trades near 78.65 during early Thursday as traders await monetary policy meeting decisions from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The quote previously dropped to a month’s low as disappointments from CPI pushed Aussie investors toward expecting a rate-cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the May month. Speculations concerning RBA outweighed softer than forecast leading economic index figures from Japan. Additionally, risk-off sentiment emanating from pessimism surrounding the EU, Canada and the UK also added strength into the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) safe-haven demand. While Aussie holidays offer a soft start to the day, pair traders remain cautious ahead of the BOJ meeting. The Japanese central bank isn’t expected to alter its present monetary policy but quarterly outlook report may downgrade inflation and growth forecasts.AUD/JPY Technical AnalysisUnless breaking the ascending trend-line stretched from January 04, at 78.40 now, chances of the quote’s pullback moves to 79.00 can’t be denied. However, 79.60, 79.85 and 80.00 are likely consecutive upside barriers to follow afterward. In a case where prices slid beneath 78.40, 77.90 and 77.55 should gain sellers’ attention while 77.30 and 77.00 may flash on their radars during the additional downturn.

BBC came out with news which conveys that the Clwyd South constituency members voted overwhelmingly for a motion of no confidence in Theresa May on Wednesday.

Even if the immediate threat to the UK PM Theresa May’s leadership was recently being rejected by the 1922 committee, the BBC came out with news which conveys that the Clwyd South constituency members voted overwhelmingly for a motion of no confidence in Theresa May on Wednesday. The news report said, 88.8% said they had no confidence, while just 3.7% had confidence and 7.4% abstained. It was further noted in the news report that the voting follows a call by more than 70 local Conservative association chiefs for an extraordinary general meeting to discuss Mrs. May's leadership.

AUD/USD is taking the rounds near 0.7010 during initial Thursday when Australian markets are off due to Anzac day.

Sluggish inflation fuelled speculations of an RBA rate-cut in May.It’s a holiday in Australia, which in turn highlights the US catalysts and risk events.AUD/USD is taking the rounds near 0.7010 during initial Thursday when Australian markets are off due to Anzac day. The Aussie slumped to seven-week low during the previous day as sluggish prints of quarterly inflation figures triggered speculations of an imminent rate-cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Lesser than forecast and prior Australian inflation numbers for the Q1 2019 pushed majority of market players to expect a rate cut from the RBA as soon as the May monthly meeting takes place.
In addition to the Aussie pessimism, sluggish EU numbers, dovish tone of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Brexit deadlock also added into the US Dollar’s (USD) strength while negatively affecting the risk indicator Aussie. With the holiday in Australia limiting fresh catalysts, investors may turn to the US weekly jobless claims and monthly prints of durable goods orders to determine near-term trade bias.  Forecasts suggest a small uptick in job numbers with a noticeable improvement in durable goods orders compared to last month's contraction. Also, latest news suggested that the US lawmakers will head to China for more trade talks and representatives from Beijing will arrive in Washington in early May for the same reason. This suggests fast-moving progress on the US-China trade talks, a positive catalyst for the Aussie.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisAn upward sloping support-line stretched since January 04 around 0.7000 handle becomes a strong support for the quote, a break of which can recall 0.6980 and 0.6900 back on the chart whereas January 2016 lows near 0.6840 may flash on the Bears’ radar then after. On the contrary, 0.7055, 0.7080 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.7110 can entertain buyers during the pullback.

The NZD/USD pair is trading near the yearly lows of 0.6581 on early Thursday when New Zealand markets are closed for a holiday.

Heightened scope of a rate cut in May at the RBA and broad USD strength dragged the Kiwi to fresh 2019 lows.Holiday in New Zealand limits the moves but the overall bias remains supportive of the Kiwi’s downside.The NZD/USD pair is trading near 0.6590 during early Asian morning on Thursday. The quote plummeted to the year’s fresh low on Wednesday as investors turned heavily towards the greenback amid negative signals from the rest of the globe. New Zealand markets are close in observance of Anzac Day and hence highlights the US and China developments for fresh impulse. Rate cut consensus for its largest customer’s (Australia) central bank on the back of sluggish inflation initially hurt the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on yesterday. The move was carried forward as traders preferred risk-safety by buying the US Dollar (USD) amid pessimism surrounding Canada, Britain, etc. The global risk barometer 10-year treasury yield from the US dropped five basis points to a fortnight low of 2.52%. It should also be noted that the absence of Kiwi players shifts market focus on to the US traders which may put a high emphasis on weekly initial jobless claims and March month durable goods orders details. Initial jobless claims for the week ended on April 19 are likely to have increased to 200K from 192K prior whereas durable goods orders growth could have risen by +0.8% from -1.6% earlier contraction. The nondefense capital goods orders ex-aircraft might also have reversed earlier -0.1% decline with +0.1% expansion during last month.NZD/USD Technical AnalysisDespite breaking January lows near 0.6585, the pair refrained from closing beneath the same, which in-turn highlights brighter chances of its pullback to 0.6630 and 0.6670 due to oversold conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Though, a sustained break of 0.6585, coupled with validation by clearing 0.6580 round-figure, might not hesitate fetching prices to October 2018 lows near 0.6465 with 0.6570 being an intermediate halt during the plunge.

S&P 500 monthly chart The market is just trading below 2,935.50, the all-time high established in January this year. A break above the level would sen

S&P 500 monthly chartThe market is just trading below 2,935.50, the all-time high established in January this year. A break above the level would send the index in uncharted territory. S&P500 daily chartIf buyers break above 2,935.50 they would likely open the gates to 2,970.00 and the 3,000.00 psychological level.To the downside, support is seen at 2,900.00 and 2,860.00 level.Additional key levels 

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