Ostrzeżenie o ryzyku: Handel jest ryzykowny. Twój kapitał jest zagrożony. FT Global Ltd podlega regulacji IFSC.
Ostrzeżenie o ryzyku: Handel jest ryzykowny. Twój kapitał jest zagrożony. FT Global Ltd podlega regulacji IFSC.

Chronologiczny zapis wiadomości forex

środa, listopad 14, 2018

Daily Chart Trend: Neutral-to-bullish USD/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 113.94     Daily change: 17 pips     Daily change: 0.149%     Daily

The USD/JPY pair created doji candle on Monday and Tuesday, signaling indecision in the marketplace.A break above 114.23 (high of the Monday's doji) would signal a resumption of the rally from the Oct. 26 low of 111.38 and would open up upside toward the recent high of 114.55.The 5-day and 10-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are trending north indicating a bullish setup. Further, the pair has found acceptance above 113.34 – 61.8% Fib R of 114.55/111.38. As a result, the pair is likely to cross 114.23 in favor of the bulls.A close below 113.58 (low of yesterday's doji) would confirm a short-term bearish doji reversal, although prospects of a deeper drop would remain low as long as the pair is holding above the 10-day SMA.Daily ChartTrend: Neutral-to-bullish USD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 113.94
    Daily change: 17 pips
    Daily change: 0.149%
    Daily Open: 113.77
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 112.96
    Daily SMA50: 112.68
    Daily SMA100: 111.95
    Daily SMA200: 110.08
Levels:
    Daily High: 114.16
    Daily Low: 113.58
    Weekly High: 114.1
    Weekly Low: 112.94
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.94
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.8
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.52
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 113.26
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 112.94
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 114.1
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 114.42
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 114.68  

Liz Kendall, Senior Economist at ANZ, estimates that New Zealand economy’s seasonally adjusted nationwide house sales increased 23% m/m in October, af

Liz Kendall, Senior Economist at ANZ, estimates that New Zealand economy’s seasonally adjusted nationwide house sales increased 23% m/m in October, after falling a whopping 10.1% m/m in September.Key Quotes“In percentage terms, we estimate that this is the largest monthly increase since 1996. Nationwide house sales were last at these levels in early 2017.” “Sales can be volatile on a monthly basis and more so around policy changes. September was a particularly weak month, so we expected some payback, and a flurry of demand (or rushed sales) are possibly contributing, with the foreign-buyer ban having come into effect in mid-October. Some payback in November looks highly likely. In trend terms, sales are seeing more modest 1.4% m/m growth. But given recent volatility, we will need to bide some time to see where the trend settles.” “Sales were up 20% m/m in Auckland, which has seen the housing market tighten, with days to sell falling from 41 days to 37 in the month, although this is still longer than average.” “Price pressures are pretty stable. The REINZ house price index increased 0.4% in October. Annual house price inflation ticked down to 3.9% y/y (3mma) from 4.2%. House prices were flat in Auckland and increased 0.8% m/m (7.6% y/y) elsewhere.” “We expect the RBNZ will be comfortable easing loan-to-value restrictions at the November FSR, but the risk of resurgence means they will do so gradually and cautiously.”

German/ Eurozone Preliminary GDP overview The preliminary readings of Germany's and Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are slated for release on W

German/ Eurozone Preliminary GDP overviewThe preliminary readings of Germany's and Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are slated for release on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT and 10:00 GMT respectively. Market forecasts are calling for a contraction in the headline quarter-on-quarter figure, from last quarter's 0.5% to the current period's -0.1%. A drop in the year-on-year figure from 2.0% to 1.6% is also expected. Meanwhile, the consensus amongst traders expects the bloc’s economic growth to remain steady at 0.2% inter-quarter in Q3, while on an annualized basis, is expected to arrive at 1.7%, matching the first readout.How could it affect the EUR/USD?A positive surprise in the GDP figures for Europe's economic power-house could offer extra legs to the ongoing corrective upside to the EUR/USD pair, but the further recovery appears limited, as the Eurozone GDP second estimate is unlikely to have any positive impact on the common currency. “The 4 hours chart shows that the price remains below a bearish 20 SMA, which maintains a sharp downward slope well below the larger ones, while technical indicators have corrected oversold conditions, now resuming their declines within the bearish ground. Failure to retake and advance beyond 1.1300 is a strong sign for bears, who will try to push the pair sub-1.1200. In the longer run, the advance will continue looking corrective unless the pair is able to regain 1.1460. Support levels: 1.1215 1.1185 1.1140. Resistance levels: 1.1300 1.1335 1.1370,” FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes.Key NotesEUR/USD: On the defensive ahead of German GDP and US CPI release German GDP Preview: Outright contraction could send the Euro even lower, regardless of expectations EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Bear MA crossover favors downside break of a rising channel Eurozone GDP growth to rebound in Q4 as ECB ends its bond buying – Reuters pollAbout German/ Eurozone Preliminary GDPThe Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish). The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

According to Gerard Burg, Senior Economist at NAB, trends in China’s data remain quite mixed, with investment strengthening and retail spending weaken

According to Gerard Burg, Senior Economist at NAB, trends in China’s data remain quite mixed, with investment strengthening and retail spending weakening.Key Quotes“We are yet to see any clear impact from US tariffs imposed in recent months (aside from weakness in manufacturing surveys). Our forecasts for China’s economic growth remain unchanged, at 6.6% in 2018, 6.25% in 2019 and 6.0% in 2020.” “China’s industrial production grew marginally more strongly in October – increasing by 5.9% yoy, compared with 5.8% in September (which was the weakest increase since the opening two months of 2016).” “The growth in China’s fixed asset investment picked up in October – with real investment rising by 5.6% yoy in October (from 3.3% in September).” “There remains no clear sign of negative impacts from US tariff measures, with China’s trade surplus expanding in October to US$34.0 billion (compared with US$31.3 billion previously).” “In real terms, retail sales growth slowed further – down to 5.6% yoy (from 6.4% in September) – the slowest rate of growth since May 2003.” “New credit issuance was comparatively weak in October – with lending only around 60% of the total recorded in same period last year.” “Following a period of considerably volatility over the third quarter, the 7 day Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) was comparatively stable in October – fluctuating near the 2.6% mark. This represents an easing of around 20 to 25 basis points compared with the period between early 2017 and mid 2018.”

The EUR/USD is currently flatlined at 1.1290, having clocked a high of 1.1321 in Asia. The failure to hold onto gains above the downward sloping (bea

The rejection at the bearish 5-day SMA indicates the EUR is on the defensive below 1.13.An above-forecast German and Eurozone GDP may be of little help as Italy-EU standoff continues.The currency pair looks set to create another lower high around 1.13 if the US CPI betters estimates, reinforcing the Fed's calls for restrictive interest rate policy.The EUR/USD is currently flatlined at 1.1290, having clocked a high of 1.1321 in Asia. The failure to hold onto gains above the downward sloping (bearish) 5-day simple moving average (SMA) validates the bearish setup indicated by the series of lower highs and lower lows and the negative crossover between the 5-, 10-day SMAs. So, it seems safe to say that the pair is on the defensive ahead of the key data releases - German and Eurozone GDP and US CPI. German data, in particular, is likely to show the economy contracted 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter, following a 0.5 percent expansion in the second quarter. An above-forecast reading may put a bid under the EUR. The resulting gains, however, could be short-lived as Italy has defied the European Commission (EC) by sticking to its big-spending budget plan. In response, the EU may initiate the excessive deficit procedure, in which case the Italian government bond yields could rise sharply in the EUR-negative manner. Further, the EUR/USD could drop sharply if the US consumer price index (CPI), due today at 13:30 GMT, beats estimates by a big margin, forcing markets to price in the prospects of restrictive (above-neutral interest rates) monetary policy in the US. The bearish pressure, however, would weaken if the EUR somehow manages to climb the descending 10-day SMA.EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.1292
    Daily change: 7.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0620%
    Daily Open: 1.1285
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1394
    Daily SMA50: 1.1527
    Daily SMA100: 1.157
    Daily SMA200: 1.1829
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.1294
    Daily Low: 1.1216
    Weekly High: 1.15
    Weekly Low: 1.1316
    Monthly High: 1.1625
    Monthly Low: 1.1302
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1264
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1246
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1236
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1186
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1157
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1314
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1344
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1393  

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (-1.1%) in September: Actual (-0.4%)

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) rose from previous -2.9% to -2.5% in September

Japan Capacity Utilization down to -1.5% in September from previous 2.2%

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at -1.1%, below expectations (-0.4%) in September

Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that Australia’s Q3 Wage Price Index (WPI) expanded by +0.6%/q and 2.3%/y

Annette Beacher, Chief Asia-Pacific Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that Australia’s Q3 Wage Price Index (WPI) expanded by +0.6%/q and 2.3%/y as widely expected.Key Quotes“Wage inflation continues to improve, but at a glacial pace. The cyclical low was 1.9%/y nearly two years ago.” “Wages are grinding higher along with the slowly tightening labour market, improving bonus payments and favourable enterprise agreements (EA), and keeping ahead of inflation.” “The RBA expects above-trend growth to shrink labour market spare capacity and boost wages growth in due course. However, as the Bank's soft target is 3%/y wages growth, and as discussed in our preview, we drop our May 2019 hike, leaving an on-consensus November 2019 25bp hike to 1.75%.”

Analysts at Nomura note that the US treasury reported a budget deficit of $100.5bn in October, the first month of FY19, up from $63.2bn in October 201

Analysts at Nomura note that the US treasury reported a budget deficit of $100.5bn in October, the first month of FY19, up from $63.2bn in October 2017.Key Quotes“Part of the increase relative to this time last year involved a shift in the timing of certain payments. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported that, if not for that shift, the deficit in October would have been roughly $9bn less than in October 2017.” “Receipts from customs and duties increased sharply to $5.6bn, consistent with the recent imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration. On a y-o-y basis, receipts increased 7.4% while spending increased 18.3%.” “We expect the budget deficit to widen in FY19 to $970bn, up from $780bn in 2018, a result of tax cuts and increased federal spending by the Trump administration.”

The GBP/USD pair is seen flirting with the 1.30 handle, as we progress towards the European trading, having stalled the overnight bounce near 1.3035 r

USD profit-taking and hopes of a Brexit deal keep the Cable well bid.All eyes on the UK Brexit Cabinet meeting and UK inflation data for a fresh directional move.The GBP/USD pair is seen flirting with the 1.30 handle, as we progress towards the European trading, having stalled the overnight bounce near 1.3035 region, as attention now turns towards the crucial UK Cabinet meeting on the Brexit deal and inflation figures.Focus on Big Brexit WednesdayThe Cable jumped in the early trades as the US dollar ran into fresh offer versus its major rivals, with the USD index extending the retreat from 16-month tops to now trade near 97.10 levels. Broad-based US dollar weakness was mainly driven by a profit-taking spree, as the investors flocked to the GBP and the Euro on expectations that a Brexit deal will be clinched soon. Further, the Sun newspaper reported that the UK Cabinet Ministers Raab, Hunt, Javid, Gove and Cox will support the Brexit draft likely to be presented for approval before the UK Cabinet when it meets later today at 1400 GMT. Markets believe the UK PM Theresa May’s Cabinet may approve the draft withdrawal agreement, but it will be a challenge for May to take it through the parliament. This comes after both the UK and the European Union (EU) agreed on a preliminary Brexit text that would allow a deal that avoids a chaotic "hard Brexit" departure. Besides, the key Brexit event, the UK October CPI figures are due on the cards and are seen a tad firmer at 2.5% y/y and 0.2% m/m. Also, of note remains the US inflation report due later in the NA session at 1330 GMT.GBP/USD Technical LevelsGBP/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3006
    Daily change: 50 pips
    Daily change: 0.386%
    Daily Open: 1.2956
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2951
    Daily SMA50: 1.3034
    Daily SMA100: 1.3027
    Daily SMA200: 1.339
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3048
    Daily Low: 1.2839
    Weekly High: 1.3176
    Weekly Low: 1.2958
    Monthly High: 1.326
    Monthly Low: 1.2696
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2968
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2919
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2847
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2738
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2637
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3057
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3157
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3266  

The US oil prices, which traded at a four-year high of $76.88 six weeks ago, is now looking oversold below $56.00. As of writing, WTI is changing han

WTI oil fell 7 percent to $54.79 yesterday, its lowest level since Nov. 3, 2017.Oil dropped from four-year highs and into bear market territory in just six weeks.The sell-off looks overdone, according to 14-day relative strength index.The US oil prices, which traded at a four-year high of $76.88 six weeks ago, is now looking oversold below $56.00. As of writing, WTI is changing hands at $55.64 per barrel, having clocked a 12-month low of $54.79 yesterday. The 27.6 percent slide from the four-year highs is looking overdone, as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has dipped below 30.00 for the first time since June 2017. Notably, the RSI fell to 14.00 yesterday, the lowest level in over a decade. As a result, a recovery rally could be in the offing, although the bearish pressure would weaken only if prices manage to close above the descending (bearish) 10-day simple moving average (SMA).What's behind the oil price drop?Investors worried about a supply shortage six weeks ago, are now pricing in a situation where supply could outstrip demand. This is because China and other developing economies are facing a threat of economic slowdown due to a sharp depreciation of their respective currencies and Trump's trade war. As a result, the demand side could weaken in the days ahead. On the other hand, the supply side is looking strong with the world's top three oil producers are pumping at or near all-time highs. Notably, US output topped 11 million barrels per day in the last few months. Further, Trump's decision to allow eight countries including India to import crude from Iran may have alleviated the bullish pressure around oil.  

Hourly Chart Daily Chart EUR/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 128.78     Daily change: 38 pips     Daily change: 0.296%     Daily Open: 128.4

The EUR/JPY is better bid at 128.78, having witnessed a falling channel breakout on the hourly chart yesterday. The cross has also charted a rising channel on the hourly chart.Further gains may not materialize, as the daily moving averages are biased toward bears. For instance, the 5- and 10-day SMAs have produced bearish crossover. Meanwhile, the hourly chart is reporting a bearish crossover between the 10- and 200-hour SMAs.The recent low of 127.50 could be put to test if the rising channel seen in the hourly chart is breached to the downside.Hourly ChartDaily ChartEUR/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 128.78
    Daily change: 38 pips
    Daily change: 0.296%
    Daily Open: 128.4
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.7
    Daily SMA50: 129.88
    Daily SMA100: 129.52
    Daily SMA200: 130.15
Levels:
    Daily High: 128.78
    Daily Low: 127.5
    Weekly High: 130.16
    Weekly Low: 128.6
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 128.29
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 127.98
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 127.67
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 126.94
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 126.39
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 128.95
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 129.5
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.23  

According to the latest Reuters poll, the Eurozone economic growth is expected to see an upturn in the fourth quarter of 2018, paving the way for the

According to the latest Reuters poll, the Eurozone economic growth is expected to see an upturn in the fourth quarter of 2018, paving the way for the European Central Bank (ECB) to conclude its stimulus programme next month as planned.Key Findings:“The Nov 8-13 poll of nearly 90 economists predicted economic growth of 0.4 percent this quarter, double the unexpectedly weak 0.2 percent - the slowest pace in the bloc more than four years - of the third. That is despite a trade war between the U.S. and China that shows no signs of letting up, and political turmoil over Brexit and Italy’s budget. For the second month in a row, all economists in Reuters polls unanimously said the central bank would not extend the 2.6 trillion euro ($2.9 trillion) purchase programme into next year. Average annual inflation is expected to be below the ECB’s 2 percent target ceiling until 2021 at the earliest, suggesting weak price pressures will not shift the central bank at this stage. The ECB forecast to hike its deposit rate to -0.25 percent in the third quarter of next year from -0.4 percent currently and the refinancing rate to 0.10 percent from zero in the last quarter of 2019 remains unchanged.”

Asian stocks are reporting losses, possibly tracking the overnight slide in oil prices and due to fears the Chinese economy may slow more than expecte

Asian equities are under pressure, tracking the drop in oil prices. Concerns of a slowdown in China are likely adding to the bearish pressure around the stocks. Asian stocks are reporting losses, possibly tracking the overnight slide in oil prices and due to fears the Chinese economy may slow more than expected in the coming quarters. At press time, the Shanghai Composite is down 0.20 percent and shares in Hong Kong have shed 0.5 percent. Japan's Nikkei is flat-lined, while stocks in South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are down between 0.3 percent to 1 percent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 0.07 percent. The US oil prices fell 7 percent yesterday - its biggest one-day loss in more than three years - indicating growing concerns about weakening world demand and oversupply. Further, China October retail sales released earlier today showed softening domestic demand, meaning the world's second-largest economy could slow more than expected in the coming quarters. The risk assets have been under pressure this week on concerns of peak growth for corporate earnings and the US economy.  

Analysts at HSBC Bank offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s UK CPI release due at 0930 GMT. Key Quotes: “Inflation surprised to the

Analysts at HSBC Bank offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s UK CPI release due at 0930 GMT.Key Quotes: “Inflation surprised to the downside in September, with the headline CPI rate dropping from 2.7% to 2.4% y-o-y. The inflationary effect of the 2016 sterling depreciation continues to wane, perhaps a little more quickly than we might have thought. And despite recent gains in wage growth, domestically generated inflation (services inflation, for example) remains low.  We expect the CPI rate to hold steady in October. Despite recent falls in the oil price, petrol pump prices held up in October such that the annual rate of fuel inflation is likely to edge up. But at the same time, we think the continued waning of FX effects will see the core CPI rate edge down from 1.9% to 1.8% y-o-y.”

Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish NZD/USD Overview:     Last Price: 0.677     Daily change: 13 pips     Daily change: 0.192%     Daily Open: 0.675

The NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6770, having clocked a low of 0.6754 earlier today.The pair has charted higher lows and higher highs pattern in the last 24 hours, adding credence to the falling channel witnessed yesterday.The stacking order of the 50-hour exponential moving average (EMA), above the 100-hour EMA, above the 200-hour EMA indicates the path of least resistance is on the higher side.The 14-hour relative strength index is also reporting bullish conditions above 50.00.The spot looks set to test the psychological hurdle of 0.68 in a day or two. The bullish setup would be invalidated if the spot dips below 0.6734, violating the higher low setup.Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish NZD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.677
    Daily change: 13 pips
    Daily change: 0.192%
    Daily Open: 0.6757
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6617
    Daily SMA50: 0.6586
    Daily SMA100: 0.6655
    Daily SMA200: 0.6898
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.6768
    Daily Low: 0.6708
    Weekly High: 0.682
    Weekly Low: 0.6632
    Monthly High: 0.663
    Monthly Low: 0.6424
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6745
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6731
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.672
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6683
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6659
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6781
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6805
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6842  

The Barclays Research Team is out with a brief preview on today’s US inflation report due on the cards at 1330 GMT, with the key focus likely to be on

The Barclays Research Team is out with a brief preview on today’s US inflation report due on the cards at 1330 GMT, with the key focus likely to be on the core figures.Key Quotes: “We expect headline CPI to have increased 0.3% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, we forecast inflation to have risen 0.2% m/m and 2.2% y/y.  We maintain our view that core CPI will rise gradually to reach 2.5% by the end of 2019 reflecting GDP growth running above potential, labor markets continuing to tighten and wage inflation moving higher modestly.”

A spokesperson from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments following the release of the Oc

A spokesperson from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments following the release of the October round of data Key Points:Policy measures help keep economic growth steady in Oct. Should continue to implement policy steps to support growth amid trade frictions. Room for policy adjustments remains relatively large as inflation remains mild.

Hourly Chart Trend: Bullish AUD/JPY Overview:     Last Price: 82.33     Daily change: 17 pips     Daily change: 0.207%     Daily Open: 82.16

The AUD/JPY is struggling to beat the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) hurdle, possibly due to a weaker-than-expected China retail sales reading.The path of least resistance, however, is still on the higher side as the pair has charted higher lows in the last 24 hours, having witnessed a falling channel breakout on Monday.The bullish view would be invalidated if the JPY cross violates the lower highs setup with a move below 81.88 (Nov. 13 low on the hourly chart).Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish AUD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 82.33
    Daily change: 17 pips
    Daily change: 0.207%
    Daily Open: 82.16
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 80.75
    Daily SMA50: 80.69
    Daily SMA100: 81.26
    Daily SMA200: 82.05
Levels:
    Daily High: 82.38
    Daily Low: 81.39
    Weekly High: 83.06
    Weekly Low: 81.24
    Monthly High: 82.5
    Monthly Low: 78.56
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 82
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 81.77
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 81.57
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 80.98
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 80.57
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 82.57
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 82.97
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 83.56  

Bloomberg highlights key points from a letter sent to the European Union (EU) by the Italian government Privatization target 1% of GDP for 2019. Tar

Bloomberg highlights key points from a letter sent to the European Union (EU) by the Italian government Privatization target 1% of GDP for 2019. Targets debt to GDP ratio at 126% in 2019. Asks for the EU flexibility due to extraordinary events, spending for these events 0.2% of GDP in 3 years (cites spending for floods, Genoa infrastructure). Won’t surpass 2.4% budget deficit for 2019.

The Aussie dollar, a proxy for China, is feeling the pull of gravity after China reported a sharp slowdown in the retail sales in October. The data c

The Aussie dollar is erasing gains after a weaker-than-expected China retail sales release.China's economy could slow more than expected in the coming quarters a domestic demand is showing no signs of life. Above-forecast China industrial production and fixed asset investment data may cap the downside in the AUD/USD.The Aussie dollar, a proxy for China, is feeling the pull of gravity after China reported a sharp slowdown in the retail sales in October. The data came in at 8.6 percent, missing the estimated figure of 9.1 percent. The big miss reinforces the view that domestic demand remains soft and is unlikely to support the economy, which may feel the heat of Trump's trade war in the coming quarters. Simply put, China's economy could slow more than previously anticipated as domestic demand is unlikely to compensate for the drop in international trade's share in GDP. As a result, the Aussie dollar risks falling into the red during the day ahead. As of writing, the AUD/USD is reporting marginal gains at 0.7226, having clocked a high of 0.7239 earlier today. A better-than-expected China industrial production and fixed asset investment figure may have put a floor under the Aussie dollar.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7225
    Daily change: 14 pips
    Daily change: 0.194%
    Daily Open: 0.7211
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7148
    Daily SMA50: 0.7161
    Daily SMA100: 0.7259
    Daily SMA200: 0.7462
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7226
    Daily Low: 0.7164
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7202
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7187
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7174
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7138
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7237
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7263
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7299  

China’s October retail sales YoY, the number came in at 8.6% vs 9.1% exp and 9.2% last, with industrial output YoY at 5.9% and 5.7% exp and 5.8% last.

China’s October retail sales YoY, the number came in at 8.6% vs 9.1% exp and 9.2% last, with industrial output YoY at 5.9% and 5.7% exp and 5.8% last. Meanwhile, urban investment YoY increased to 5.7% vs 5.5% expected and 5.4% last, the latest release by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Wednesday. Mixed Chinese macro numbers had little effect on the Australian Dollar, keeping the AUD/USD pair better bid near the 0.7220 region, while AUD/JPY wavers around the 82.25 level.

China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 5.7%, above expectations (5.5%) in October

China Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 8.6%, below expectations (9.1%) in October

China Industrial Production (YoY) above forecasts (5.7%) in October: Actual (5.9%)

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Wednesday there was no change to the view that the country’s economy was recovering moderately, ev

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Wednesday there was no change to the view that the country’s economy was recovering moderately, even though the data released earlier today showed the economy contracted 1.2 percent in the third quarter.Key comments (Source: Reuters) Japan’s economy is expected to recover driven mainly by domestic demand. We need to be vigilant to the impact of overseas uncertainties, financial market volatility and how trade problems affect the global economy.

Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying that the US is likely to hold off on auto tariffs for now after the Trump meeting. No further details have be

Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying that the US is likely to hold off on auto tariffs for now after the Trump meeting. No further details have been mentioned on the same.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9402 vs the previous day's fix of 6.9629. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9402 vs the previous day's fix of 6.9629. 

The Aussie dollar is currently trading at 0.7224, having hit a high of 0.7238 earlier today. Notably, the pair is having a tough time scaling the 100-

The AUD/USD is struggling to move past the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA).An uptick in the Aussie wage price index seems to have gone unnoticed.The currency pair has created a bearish continuation pattern on the hourly chart.The Aussie dollar is currently trading at 0.7224, having hit a high of 0.7238 earlier today. Notably, the pair is having a tough time scaling the 100-hour SMA lined up at 0.7232. The ABS data released 30 minutes before press time showed the wage-price inflation ticked higher to 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter from the previous quarter's print of 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the annualized figure rose to 2.3 percent, in line with the expectations. The uptick in the wage price inflation, however, has gone unnoticed. That makes the pair more vulnerable to risk aversion in the Asian stocks. As of writing, stocks in Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea are flashing red, while Japan's Nikkei is reporting moderate gains.  On the hourly chart, the pair seems to have carved out a bear flag -  a bearish continuation pattern. A break below the lower edge of the flag, currently at 0.7205, could yield a drop to 0.7164 (Monday's low).AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7227
    Daily change: 16 pips
    Daily change: 0.222%
    Daily Open: 0.7211
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7148
    Daily SMA50: 0.7161
    Daily SMA100: 0.7259
    Daily SMA200: 0.7462
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7226
    Daily Low: 0.7164
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7202
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7187
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7174
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7138
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7237
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7263
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7299  

Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.3%) in 3Q

Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 3Q

Australia wage price index rose 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter as expected, extending the moderate rate of wage growth record

Australia wage price index rose 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter as expected, extending the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last four years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a few minutes before press time. The annualized number rose to 2.3 percent as expected from the previous quarter's reading of 2.1 percent.Quarterly Change (Jun Qtr 2018 To Sep Qtr 2018) (Source: ABS)The trend index rose 0.5% and seasonally adjusted index rose 0.6% for Australia in the September quarter. This continued the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last four years. The Private and Public sector rose 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, seasonally adjusted. The highest index rise at an industry level (in original terms) was recorded in Accommodation and food services (1.9%) and the lowest in Finance and insurance services (0.4%).Annual Change (Sep Qtr 2017 To Sep Qtr 2018)The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia rose 2.2% and 2.3% respectively through the year to the September quarter 2018. In original terms, rises through the year to September quarter 2018 at the industry level ranged from 1.8% for Mining and Retail trade to 2.8% for Health care and social assistance.

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today we saw Japanese Q3 GDP, which underlined how wobbly the global backdrop suddenly looks.  Key Quotes: "It s

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today we saw Japanese Q3 GDP, which underlined how wobbly the global backdrop suddenly looks. Key Quotes:"It shrank 1.2% q-o-q on an annualised basis, so the second quarter of negative growth this year, if not back to back. Next up we have a Chinese data blast of retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment – if that also shows weakness then we can expect a further ramping up of stimulus and a further set of weights pressing on CNY. Then we have German Q3 GDP, which is seen -0.1% q-o-q, adding to the gloom, and UK CPI, then Eurozone Q3 GDP, expected to be as damp as the weather. We also get US CPI, and hear from the Fed’s Powell overnight – let’s hope that there isn’t a huge US outperformance or else USD is going to look as relatively muscly as the US army is compared to Europe’s."

The bid tone around the USD/JPY strengthened a few minutes before press time, after the Japanese data showed the economy shrank at an annualized rate

Japanese economy contracted in the third quarter, reinforcing Bank of Japan’s dovish policy stance.USD/JPY has bounced off the ascending 5-day EMA, keeping bulls in the game. A break above 114.23 (Monday’s doji candle high) is needed to confirm the continuation of the rally. The bid tone around the USD/JPY strengthened a few minutes before press time, after the Japanese data showed the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent in third quarter.  The drop in the GDP is likely associated with the natural disasters and a slowdown in export growth due to anemic global demand and reinforces Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) view that policy needs to stay accommodative for some time.  As a result, JPY is being offered at press time. The USD/JPY has bounced off the ascending 5-day EMA of 113.78 and is currently trading at 113.91.  The rebound from the bullish short-term EMA is encouraging, however, a only a break above 114.23 would signal a continuation of the rally from the October low of 111.38. It is worth noting that the pair has created back-to-back doji candles, signaling bullish exhaustion. Hence, a close below yesterday’s low of 113.58 could prove costly. USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 113.95
    Daily change: 18 pips
    Daily change: 0.158%
    Daily Open: 113.77
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 112.96
    Daily SMA50: 112.68
    Daily SMA100: 111.95
    Daily SMA200: 110.08
Levels:
    Daily High: 114.16
    Daily Low: 113.58
    Weekly High: 114.1
    Weekly Low: 112.94
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.94
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.8
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.52
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 113.26
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 112.94
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 114.1
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 114.42
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 114.68  

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Model projection: 6.9414 versus 6.9629 previous (215 pi

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Model projection: 6.9414 versus 6.9629 previous (215 pips lower; 117 pips lower from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 6.9419 (210 pips lower from previous fix)."

AUD/USD has been looking to recover the recent losses on the 0.72 handle where the pair fell from a touch through 0.73 the figure earlier in the month

AUD/USD has rallied from the 0.7180s and scored a fresh high in early Asia on a slide in the greenback with 0.7250 on the radar.Thin trade allows the dollar to fall below the 97 handle in the DXY and helps the Aussie long to score fresh highs. AUD/USD has been looking to recover the recent losses on the 0.72 handle where the pair fell from a touch through 0.73 the figure earlier in the month. There has not been anything domestically great about the Aussie economy of late but there has been a slight turn up in positive sentiment that has supported the currency.  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been a touch more optimistic, however with GDP forecasts higher, rising from 0.25pp to an above-consensus 3.50% in 2019 and 2020. At the same time, the unemployment rate was lowered 0.25pp to 4.75% in 2020 and inflation in 2020 is now seen as a “a bit higher” than its 2.25% forecast for 2019. Today's wages data will be a key focus with this regard.Eyes on wagesAnalysts at ANZ explained that they are looking for a 0.7% q/q rise in the WPI in Q3. "This would be a step up from the 0.5% q/q average gain over the past three years and the highest quarterly gain since March 2014. It would see annual growth in wages rise to 2.4%. While ongoing tighter labour market conditions will be supportive, the main drivers of strength will be the 3.5% lift in the minimum wage."AUD/USD levels"The pair would need to extend its advance past 0.7250 to actually regain its bullish stance, while bears will take full control on a break below 0.7130, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline," Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained. Meanwhile, analysts at Commerzbank argued that provided that the latter level holds, the September and current November highs at 0.7302/14 are expected to be revisited. "If this resistance zone were to be bettered, the 200-day moving average at 0.7459 and the July 9 high at 0.7484 would be in focus."

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -1.2% below forecasts (-1%) in 3Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) declined to -0.3% in 3Q from previous 0.1%

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (-0.3%) in 3Q

EUR/USD was struggling in European trade following the plunge in ZEW with ZEW expectations arriving at -24.1 beating the -25 forecasted but hardly cha

EUR/USD has rallied through the 1.13 handle in thin liquidity in Asia as the dollar slides further.EUR/USD has followed sterling overnight but the dollar and thin liquidity is ultimately to blame for this move. The DXY is now below the 97 handle.EUR/USD was struggling in European trade following the plunge in ZEW with ZEW expectations arriving at -24.1 beating the -25 forecasted but hardly changed from the -24.7 while current conditions were plunging from 70.1 to 58.2 and below the 65 forecasted. Bears are looking for a test below the 1.12 handle but there was a strong reversal in the euro during the NY session and the price rallied from 1.1253 and through the 1.13 handle in early Asia as the greenback lost more traction in thin trade. A pre-Tokyo open of 1.1320 was made.EZ woes to cap bullish attempts:For the Eurozone, an old saying by Ben Bernanke rings a bell: recoveries don’t die of old age. However, they can definitely lose momentum. Analysts at ING Bank explained that the discussion between optimists and pessimists is getting fiercer. Recent developments have sparked uncertainty about the length of the expansion in the Eurozone as confidence among businesses and consumers has been hit by concerns about a trade war, Brexit, higher oil prices and emerging market turmoil. "This does not necessarily mean that the economy is set for a severe decline. The investment environment remains favourable with low borrowing rates, eased credit standards and high levels of capacity utilisation. Consumption continues to profit from lower levels of unemployment and cautious increases in wage growth." EUR/USD levelsThere is very little of significance on the 1.13 handle and it is only until the pair gets to the downtrend channel resistance line at 1.1460 where things can get interesting. Bulls could then look to target the 1.1432 early October low. "While the cross remains below the current November high at 1.1500 we will retain a medium-term bearish outlook," analysts at Commerzbank argued. The long-term pivot line was tested at 1.1258 and a break there again opens prospects for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. " Failure there will put the late May and June 2017 lows at 1.1119/10 on the cards," the analysts at Commerzbank argued.  

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 2.8% (November) vs 1%

Analysts at Westpac noted that AUD/USD had bounced. Key Quotes: "AUD/USD had bounced about 40 pips to 0.7210 in Sydney trade, backed by optimistic h

Analysts at Westpac noted that AUD/USD had bounced.Key Quotes:"AUD/USD had bounced about 40 pips to 0.7210 in Sydney trade, backed by optimistic headlines about the US and China meeting to discuss a trade deal, plus a rally in the Chinese yuan which kept it away from the much-discussed 7 level versus USD." "The Aussie then traded near 0.7200 in London and NY, largely sidelined." "NZD was a bit more impressive, up 0.6% over the day at 0.6750. This saw AUD/NZD slip -0.2% to 1.0665."

South Korea Unemployment Rate: 3.9% (October) vs previous 4%

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand explained that markets were calmer overnight after recent volatility saw a lot of short-term uncertainty about Brexit

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand explained that markets were calmer overnight after recent volatility saw a lot of short-term uncertainty about Brexit and the Italian budget priced in. Key Quotes:"Equities made gains on headlines that there will be further talks between the US and China." "At the time of writing, the S&P is up 0.3%, while the DAX finished up 1.3% and FTSE 100 was unchanged." "Oil weakened with WTI down 4.6%, after OPEC warned that a supply glut could emerge next year as world demand slows and non-OPEC producers raise output. Oil is at the lowest level since February and OPEC has cut its forecasts for world oil demand in 2019." "Sterling surged, with the UK inching closer to a Brexit deal. Fixed income was firm with the US 10-year yield down 3bps."

USD/CAD daily chart USD/CAD is ending Tuesday virtually unchanged below 1.3250 brick wall.  USD/CAD is attempting to break meaningfully above th

USD/CAD daily chartUSD/CAD is ending Tuesday virtually unchanged below 1.3250 brick wall. USD/CAD is attempting to break meaningfully above the September high. USD/CAD 4-hour chartUSD/CAD is evolving in a small rising wedge just below 1.3250 in what appears to be a crowded trade to the upside. The Stochastic indicator is decelerating. USD/CAD 30-minute chartBulls objective is to break above 1.3250. It is most likely that any attempts above the level would soon fail. Bears will try to reach 1.3200 and 1.3140 to the downside.  Additional key levels at a glance:USD/CAD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3238
    Daily change: -5.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0378%
    Daily Open: 1.3243
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3106
    Daily SMA50: 1.3041
    Daily SMA100: 1.3071
    Daily SMA200: 1.2951
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3245
    Daily Low: 1.3182
    Weekly High: 1.3233
    Weekly Low: 1.3056
    Monthly High: 1.3172
    Monthly Low: 1.2783
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3221
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3206
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3202
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3161
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.314
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3264
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3285
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3326  
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