Ostrzeżenie o ryzyku: Handel jest ryzykowny. Twój kapitał jest zagrożony. Exinity Limited jest regulowany przez FSC (Mauritius).
Ostrzeżenie o ryzyku: Handel jest ryzykowny. Twój kapitał jest zagrożony. Exinity Limited jest regulowany przez FSC (Mauritius).
czwartek, czerwiec 27, 2019

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 122.79 Today Daily Change 45 Today Daily Change % 0.21 Today daily open 122.53 Trends Daily SMA2

EUR/JPY is up for another session and is navigating weekly highs in the 122.80 region, flirting at the same time with the short-term resistance line at 122.87.The rebound from last week’s lows remains well and sound sustained at the same time by Friday’s bullish ‘outside day’.Immediately to the upside emerges the next significant hurdle at 123.17, or monthly peaks ahead of 123.75 (May 21 high).EUR/JPY daily chart  

Portugal Consumer Confidence rose from previous -9 to -8.3 in June

Portugal Business Confidence climbed from previous 2.3 to 2.4 in June

ANZ analysts suggest that although the Indian economy faces multiple constraints on growth, the price action in INR is encouraging, especially given t

ANZ analysts suggest that although the Indian economy faces multiple constraints on growth, the price action in INR is encouraging, especially given the recent back-up in oil prices.Key Quotes“We see EUR as a sell on rallies as disinflationary pressures in the euro area grows, prompting policy easing from the ECB.” “Selling EUR/INR has positive carry of 8% annualised, which is very attractive in an environment of falling yields. INR is also the least exposed in Asia to US-China trade tensions.”

Piet P.H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that optimism on trade is boiling ahead of the G20 meeting in Osaka, which starts toda

Piet P.H. Christiansen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that optimism on trade is boiling ahead of the G20 meeting in Osaka, which starts today is weighing on safe havens.Key Quotes“The USD has stabilised somewhat after the recent decline, while the CHF and JPY strength has faded a bit. Notably, EUR/CHF has edged away from the 1.10 area, which may foster SNB action, and USD/JPY climbed towards 108 yesterday. Some parts of the market seem to be pricing a positive outcome at G20 but inflation expectations remain in decline and global data is crucially still weakening.” “We think USD/JPY continues to have significant downside risks. Indeed, while dollar weakening would help, it likely remains insignificant in terms of turning global macro around, and a trade war premium in USD as likely still present. If a trade truce is agreed by Trump and Xi this weekend, it might initially foster some USD, JPY and CHF weakness and cheer in notably the Scandies and EM but we do not see a long-lived move given (1) already high expectations, and (2) the risk that the US administration has proven it may swiftly change its mind again on these matters.”

The EUR/USD pair quickly recovered around 20-25 pips from intraday swing lows and might now be headed towards the top end of its daily trading range.

A modest USD pullback helps the pair to bounce off 200-DMA.Positive US bond yields lend support to the USD and cap gains.Traders now eye German CPI for some impetus ahead of US GDP.The EUR/USD pair quickly recovered around 20-25 pips from intraday swing lows and might now be headed towards the top end of its daily trading range.  For the third consecutive session, the pair managed to attract some dip-buying interest near the very important 200-day SMA and the latest leg of an uptick over the past hour or so was supported by a modest intraday US Dollar pullback. Optimism over US-China trade talks turned out to be short-lived and fizzled out rather quickly after China's foreign ministry spokesman was out with a clarification saying that they were not aware of any report on a tentative trade truce between the two countries.  The news exerted some pressure on the greenback and turned out to be the only factor providing a modest lift to the major. However, a positive tone around the US Treasury bond yields helped limit the USD slide and kept a lid on any strong follow-through up-move for the major. The pair remained well below the 1.1400 round figure mark as investors now look forward to the prelim German consumer inflation figures for some meaningful impetus. Later during the early North-American session, the final US Q1 GDP print might further collaborate towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities.Technical levels to watch 

Italy Business Confidence below expectations (101) in June: Actual (100.8)

Italy Consumer Confidence came in at 109.6 below forecasts (111.3) in June

Iris Pang, economist at ING, notes that China’s industrial profits grew 1.1% year-on-year in May after declining 3.7% YoY in April. Key Quotes “This s

Iris Pang, economist at ING, notes that China’s industrial profits grew 1.1% year-on-year in May after declining 3.7% YoY in April.Key Quotes“This sounds good but is actually due to the impact of higher government spending on infrastructure projects.” “Railway-related equipment producers posted excellent profit growth of 42.9%YoY in Jan-May while the black metal mining industry saw profits surge 229%YoY.” “Major industries in the private sector continued to experience falling profits in May, year-to-date.” “The data suggests that the government's investment in infrastructure, particularly its decision to add more metro lines across cities in the same province, is supporting economic activity. But these activities have not benefited manufacturing in the private sector.” “We have revised our projection of fiscal stimulus in 2019 from CNY 2 trillion to CNY 4 trillion, as the trade and technology war continues to escalate. That's why we think GDP growth of more than 6% in 2019 is still very likely. Our GDP forecast for 2019 remains at 6.3%.”

Headlines are crossing the wires from the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang, as it responds to the earlier reports that the US and China

Headlines are crossing the wires from the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Geng Shuang, as it responds to the earlier reports that the US and China have reached a tentative trade truce. Not aware about report on tentative trade truce.

Given that the commodity has already found acceptance below 100-hour SMA for the first time in over a week or so, a follow-through selling will set th

Gold traded with a negative bias for the second consecutive session on Thursday, albeit has been showing some resilience near the key $1400 psychological mark.The mentioned handle coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the $1342-$1439 recent upsurge and should act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders.Given that the commodity has already found acceptance below 100-hour SMA for the first time in over a week or so, a follow-through selling will set the stage for an extension of the recent corrective slide from multi-year tops set on Tuesday. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have already drifted into the bearish territory and have been losing positive momentum on the 4-hourly chart and still pointed to slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart. The set-up clearly points to an eventual bearish breakdown, which if confirmed might turn the precious metal vulnerable to accelerate the slide towards the $1390 intermediate support (50% Fibo. level) en-route the $1382 region. On the flip side, 100-hour SMA support breakpoint, currently near the $1410 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance and any subsequent up-move seems more likely to remain capped near 23.6% Fibo. level, around the $1415 zone.Gold 1-hourly chart 

Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s industrial companies profit rose 1.1% y/y in May compared to a drop of -3.7% y/y previously. Key Quotes “Y

Analysts at TD Securities note that China’s industrial companies profit rose 1.1% y/y in May compared to a drop of -3.7% y/y previously.Key Quotes“Year to date industrial profits are down -2.3%, a marginal improvement compared to the -3.4% decline between Jan to May 19. Much of the weakness was likely centered on export orientated companies.”

Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) increased to 8.3B in May from previous 1.4B

Reuters reports the key comments delivered by the Japanese Foreign Minister Kono, as he says that “we are very concerned about a no-deal Brexit”. Key

Reuters reports the key comments delivered by the Japanese Foreign Minister Kono, as he says that “we are very concerned about a no-deal Brexit”. Key Quotes: Car industry, if there's a no deal Brexit and if they have to go through actual customs inspections physically, those operations may not be able to continue. We are very concerned about a no-deal Brexit. No-deal would have a very negative impact on Japanese firms in the UK. Hopes whoever becomes the UK PM will consider foreign firms operating in Britain. TPP has no geographic boundaries, Japan would be happy to negotiate new trade deal with UK after Brexit. Some companies have already started to move their operations out of the UK to other places in Europe We have been asking the UK govt to tell Japanese firms what they should expect from Brexit We do not want a no-deal Brexit It could be that Japanese investment leaves the UK, less investment. Does not think free-trade deal with Japan can be negotiated before Oct. 31 Brexit date There will be some kind of gap between Brexit and when new trade deal could be ratified. There will be a gap when we have to return to WTO rules. Any disruption in Middle East would have a bad effect on the global economy, asking everyone concerned to stay calm. We need to work together to sustain liberal economic order.

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney generated some headlines yesterday when testifying to a Parliamentary

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that in the UK, Bank of England Governor Carney generated some headlines yesterday when testifying to a Parliamentary committee. Key QuotesOn the policy front, he emphasised that Brexit is the key risk, with "the degree of uncertainty high" and was sanguine about the disconnect between markets and the BoE's own forecasts.” “Markets are resistant to pricing hikes, he said because investors ascribe "some possibility to no deal," in which case there would be easing. Carney seemed to ratify this view, but cautioned that "we would do what we could to support the transition to no deal, but there's no guarantee on that." Relatedly, he pushed back on the view - recently espoused by Boris Johnson among others - that the UK could retreat to the relationship under article 24 of the GATT, which would maintain existing rules while negotiations continue.”Carney said such an arrangement would need to be multilaterally agreed and the EU has showed no signs of interest. Boris Johnson said last night that he thought the chances of a no deal Brexit were a “million to one” but that he was prepared for one. He is going to have some tough times squaring this if and when he gets elected!”

Erik Johannes Bruce, analysts at Nordea Markets, notes that Norway’s retail sales fell 1.3% m/m s.a.in May after an increase by 1.8% in April against

Erik Johannes Bruce, analysts at Nordea Markets, notes that Norway’s retail sales fell 1.3% m/m s.a.in May after an increase by 1.8% in April against the consensus of -0.9%.Key Quotes“The drop in May retail sales is a correction after the very strong April figure and well in line with expectations. Despite the drop the trend so far this year points upwards after a weak second part of 2018. That is very much in line with both ours and Norges Bank’s view.” “We view today’s figure as very much in line with Norges Bank’s picture. Yesterday’s April LFS unemployment figure however was if anything on the strong side. LFS unemployment dropped to 3.2%. Norges Banks average 2019 forecast for LFS unemployment is 3.5% and 2020 is 3.3%. But there is too much noise in LFS unemployment to take the monthly figures seriously. We will await tomorrow’s much more important June registered unemployment before we conclude whether the labour market seems to tighten faster than expected by Norges Bank.”

Further comments are crossing the wires from the Chinese Commerce Ministry Spokesman Gao, with the key headlines found below. Urges US to return to co

Further comments are crossing the wires from the Chinese Commerce Ministry Spokesman Gao, with the key headlines found below. Urges US to return to cooperation track. Opposes unilateral tariff hikes US action cannot solve trade imbalance. Welcomes measures to prevent trade escalation. Liu, USTR Lighthizer had a good call on June 24. US, China trade teams kept communication after the Liu, Lighthizer. Any further tariffs will not intimidate the people in China. Asked about report of trade war truce with US, cites that it welcomes actions that de-escalate tensions.

China’s Finance Ministry Spokesman Gao Feng is out on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the US-China trade issue. Key Points: it is not feasib

China’s Finance Ministry Spokesman Gao Feng is out on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the US-China trade issue. Key Points: it is not feasible to shift the supply chain out of China. Cooperation is the only right option for China, US. China hopes the US drop wrongdoing, listen to industry advice.

The Research Team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) offers their expectations from the much-awaited G20 meeting between the US President Trump a

The Research Team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) offers their expectations from the much-awaited G20 meeting between the US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi.Key Quotes:“The best we can hope for is a truce, not a deal. A likely ceasefire, delays in tariffs agreed to on both sides. Given the scope of disagreement between the two side, a major deal is unlikely. A truce is at least a positive but will soon evolve into worry unless sides move towards a deal.” Earlier today, the SCMP reported that the US-China have reached a tentative trade truce.

The USD/JPY pair built on its momentum further beyond the 108.00 handle and climbed to over one-week tops in the last hour. A combination of supportin

US-China trade optimism dents JPY’s safe-haven status and provides a goodish lift.The USD regains positive traction and remained supportive of the positive move.Traders now look forward to the final US Q1 GDP print for some fresh impetus.The USD/JPY pair built on its momentum further beyond the 108.00 handle and climbed to over one-week tops in the last hour. A combination of supporting factors assisted the pair to continue gaining positive traction for the second consecutive session on Thursday and build on this week's recovery move from multi-month lows.  Hopes of a fresh round of US-China trade negotiations propped up after South China Morning Post reported that the world's two biggest economies have tentatively agreed to another truce ahead of the G20 meeting. The latest development added to the overnight optimism led by the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's comments - though were restated later, describing progress in the US-China trade talks. Renewed trade optimism provided a strong boost to the global risk sentiment, which was seen underpinning the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and remained supportive of the ongoing up-move. On the other hand, the US Dollar managed to regain traction amid expectations that a resolution to the prolonged US-China trade disputed would ease pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to capitalize on the positive momentum or meets with some fresh supply at higher levels as the focus now shifts to Thursday's release of the final version of the US Q1 GDP print.Technical levels to watch 

Spain HICP (MoM) below forecasts (0%) in June: Actual (-0.1%)

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0%) in June

Spain HICP (MoM) registered at -0.2%, below expectations (0%) in June

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.4% below forecasts (0.5%) in June

Spain HICP (YoY) below forecasts (0.8%) in June: Actual (0.6%)

Turkey Economic confidence index rose from previous 77.5 to 83.4 in June

In an effort to resolve New Zealand’s (NZ) housing crisis, Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern reshuffled her the cabinet by replacing the housing mini

In an effort to resolve New Zealand’s (NZ) housing crisis, Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern reshuffled her the cabinet by replacing the housing minister and appointing a team of senior officials. Key Details: “Ardern appointed Energy Minister Megan Woods as housing minister, replacing Phil Twyford who has come under fire in recent months for the failure of a government project to build housing called KiwiBuild. Woods will lead a three-member team that will look into government housing. The team includes Twyford and the minister of broadcasting and communications, Kris Faafoi. House prices in New Zealand have soared more than 50 percent over the past decade, and almost doubled in its biggest city of Auckland.”

The AUD/USD pair climbed to 2-1/2 week tops during the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum beyond the key 0.70

Renewed US-China trade optimism continues to underpin Aussie.A modest pickup in the USD demand kept a lid on any further up-move.Traders now look forward to the final US Q1 GDP for a fresh impetus.The AUD/USD pair climbed to 2-1/2 week tops during the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum beyond the key 0.70 psychological mark. The pair built on its recent recovery move from multi-month lows and remained supported by hopes of US-China trade talk progress, especially after the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's overnight comments. Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Mnuchin was quoted saying that the US-China trade deal was about 90% complete, though the comments were later restated to show that he was using the past tense to describe the progress. However, the optimism remained intact, rather was fueled further after South China Morning Post reported on Thursday that the US and China have tentatively agreed to another truce and continued underpinning the China-proxy Australian Dollar, though investors remained cautious ahead of Trump-Xi meeting later this week.  The US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are due to meet on the sidelines on the G20 summit in Japan, which will grab all the market attention to see whether the two leaders can pave the way to resolve prolonged trade disputes between the world's two biggest economies. On the other hand, the US Dollar managed to regain some positive traction on Thursday and further collaborated towards capping any meaningful up-move for the major. Despite Wednesday's disappointing US durable goods orders data, the fact that an agreement between the US and China will ease pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately extended some support to the greenback. It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any follow-through buying or witness some long-unwinding trade. The focus now shifts to Thursday's US economic docket - highlighting the release of the final US Q1 GDP growth figures, which might influence the USD price dynamics and contribute towards producing some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, a majority of them expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR)

According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, a majority of them expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to a record low of 1.00% at its monthly meeting next Tuesday.   Key Findings: “Nearly 70% of 40 economists surveyed this week, including those from the country’s biggest banks, expect RBA to cut rates to 1.00% next week. And a slim majority, or 20 of 38 surveyed, see the chance of another cut to 0.75% by year-end. As many as three are predicting the cash rate at 0.50% while only 15 see the central bank holding at 1.00%. That is a significant shift from the previous poll in late May, when most economists predicted the RBA would pause at 1.00%.”

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) came in at $1373M, above forecasts ($850M) in May

Iranian’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports the comments delivered by the country’s parliament speaker Ali Larijani as he threatens the US with

Iranian’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reports the comments delivered by the country’s parliament speaker Ali Larijani as he threatens the US with a stronger reaction against the violation of its borders. Key Quotes: “The downing of their drone was a good experience for them to avoid any aggression against our borders.”  “Iran’s reaction will be stronger if they repeat their mistake of violating our borders.”

Denmark Industrial Outlook down to -5 in June from previous -2

Norway Retail Sales came in at -1.3%, below expectations (-0.9%) in May

Danske Bank analysts point out that in the euro area, we get a first hint of where inflation is headed in June with the German and Spanish HICP figure

Danske Bank analysts point out that in the euro area, we get a first hint of where inflation is headed in June with the German and Spanish HICP figures out already today.Key Quotes“It will be interesting to see if they point to the rise in core inflation we expect to see in tomorrow's euro area figures. The EC's economic confidence indicator for June will also be on the agenda, providing the last piece to the puzzle of how consumer and business sentiment has fared in Q2.” “On an otherwise light day on the data front, markets will continue to look out for clues ahead of tomorrow's G20 meeting in Japan. Tensions are high ahead of the meeting, with Trump warning of additional tariffs if there is lack of progress after G20, while it was also suggested that the US and China have agreed on a tentative truce, according to scmp.”

FX option expiries for June 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1300 550m 1.1335 741m 1.1350 712m

FX option expiries for June 27 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1300 550m 1.1335 741m  1.1350 712m  1.1400 1.9bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2650 451m 1.2700 1.0bn - USD/JPY: USD amounts 107.25 625m 108.00 1.1bn

Failure to conquer 1.2765/1.2665 area currently limits the GBP/USD pair’s moves at 1.2680 while heading into the UK markets open on Thursday.

An area between 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of declines from early-May holds the GBP/USD pair tightly.200-bar exponential moving average on 4-hour chart (4H 200EMA) limits immediate upside.Failure to conquer 1.2765/1.2665 area currently limits the GBP/USD pair’s moves at 1.2680 while heading into the UK markets open on Thursday. In addition to 1.2765, comprising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 4H 200MA at 1.2730 acts as immediate resistance for the pair. Also, successful break of 1.2765 brightens the odd for the quote’s rise to May 21 high near 1.2815 ahead of 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2843. If the sellers sneak in, 1.2610 and 1.2560 could quickly appear on the chart whereas the month’s low near 1.2506 might gain bears’ attention afterward. It is worth noting that gradually declining 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is in favor of the pair’s downside. GBP/USD 4-hour chartTrend: Sideways  

TD Securities analysis team is looking for German HICP to edge a tick lower to 1.2% y/y in June, compared to consensus of 1.3% y/y. Key Quotes “Underl

TD Securities analysis team is looking for German HICP to edge a tick lower to 1.2% y/y in June, compared to consensus of 1.3% y/y.Key Quotes“Underlying that, we look for the contribution from energy prices to decline, given the fall in crude oil prices that we saw into the beginning of June.” “Core inflation should pick up a bit, although this is the big question mark as core CPI has been incredibly volatile so far this year. We look for core CPI to regain its 1-handle though, rising to about 1.1% y/y.”

Further comments are out from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Wakatabe, as he calls for immediate easing without hesitation if the economy loses

Further comments are out from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Wakatabe, as he calls for immediate easing without hesitation if the economy loses momentum to hit the price goal. He said that “there is a significant risk we may have to change our baseline scenario that economy will continue moderate expansion as a trend.’

The selling bias around the shared currency remains well and sound in the second half of the week and is now forcing EUR/USD to test the lower bound o

EUR/USD falls to the 1.1350 region, closer to multi-day lows.German June’s advanced CPI figures next of relevance in Euroland.US final Q1 GDP figures coming up later in the NA session.The selling bias around the shared currency remains well and sound in the second half of the week and is now forcing EUR/USD to test the lower bound of the range in the mid-1.1300s.EUR/USD near the 200-day/week SMASpot comes under further downside pressure early on Thursday and is challenging the critical contention zone in the  mid-1.1300s, where coincide the 200-day and 200-week SMAs. Diminishing concerns on the US-China trade front and a potential Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 event later in the week have all collaborated with the improved mood in the risk-associated complex in past hours. Higher US yields are fuelling the outflows from the Japanese safe haven and are propping up the correction higher in USD/JPY, in turn lending extra wings to the buck. Moving forward, several gauges of sentiment and confidence are due in Euroland, although the salient event will be the publication of advanced inflation figures in Germany for the month of June. Across the pond, weekly Claims are due seconded by Pending Home Sales and the final revision of the GDP for the January-March period. The continuation of the down move is following Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ at the time when market participants appears to have relegated probable rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to the back-seat as the main catalyst for the price action, focusing instead on the tangible likeliness of ECB’s rate cuts and/or QE.What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.16% at 1.1350 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1344 (low Jun.25) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18). On the flip side, a break above 1.1412 (high Jun.25) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair is easing back from the 1.1416 55 week moving average on Tuesday. Key Quotes “We n

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair is easing back from the 1.1416 55 week moving average on Tuesday.Key Quotes“We note the 13 count on the 60 minute chart and we would allow for a small near term retracement into the 1.1335/00 band ahead of further gains. Above 1.1416 we look for a test of the 1.1570 2019 high. Beyond this we target 1.1815/54 (highs from June and September 2018). Initial support lies at 1.1348 the 7th June high ahead of 1.1176 the 7th March high.” “We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and we target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge).”

Reuters reports the latest comments by the Indian government sources, as they speak about the latest tariffs imposed on the US. Key Headlines: India's

Reuters reports the latest comments by the Indian government sources, as they speak about the latest tariffs imposed on the US. Key Headlines: India's applied tariffs are well within WTO bound rates. India's tariffs are not that high compared to other developing countries. US peak tariffs on some items are much higher than India. These comments come after the US President Trump expressed his displeasure on the latest tariffs imposed by India on the US. Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee continues its recovery mode, knocking-off USD/INR to daily lows near 69.20 region.

Statements favoring the odds of the US-China trade deal extended the Asian stocks' upside momentum during early Thursday.

Not only the US but China have also stepped forward while conveying brighter chances of a trade deal.G20 will gain major market attention while US GDP can also be observed for near-term directives.While late-Wednesday’s trade positive comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin initially pleased the Asian share buyers, statements favoring the odds of the US-China trade deal by the Chinese media offered additional strength to market optimists and extended the stock momentum to the north during early Thursday. With the rising hope of a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan is up 0.89% whereas Japan’s Nikkei gains 0.84% by the press time. China’s Hang Seng marks more than 1.13% while India’s BSE Sensex also cheers the US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s visit despite trade/defense differences with the world’s biggest economy. Australia’s ASX 200 seems cold-blooded to the trade news/China’s upbeat industrial profits as it is barely in the positive region. Same is the case with New Zealand’s NZX50. Market risk tone, as reflected from the US 10-year treasury yield, remains upbeat around 2.054%. Even if 2-day long gatherings of global leaders in Japan (G20 on June 28-29) is likely to remain in the spotlight, the final reading of the US gross domestic product (GDP) data for first quarter 2019, likely 3.1% annualized on QoQ basis, can also affect the market momentum.

TD Securities analysts note that New Zealand’s Business Activity and Confidence fell in June as the confidence index fell to -38.1 from -32.0 and the

TD Securities analysts note that New Zealand’s Business Activity and Confidence fell in June as the confidence index fell to -38.1 from -32.0 and the Activity outlook gauge dipped to 8.0 from 8.5.Key Quotes“Inflation expectations edged higher to 1.87% from 1.81% while most activity indicators were little changed, remaining at relatively weak levels. Residential building intentions "continue to suggest a marked fall in building activity'' and a net 12% of firms in the construction sector are intending to cut jobs.”

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the France and Germany published consumer confidence data yesterday which showed that t

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that the France and Germany published consumer confidence data yesterday which showed that the Germany’s first estimate of confidence in July fell to 9.8, down from 10.1 in June while France’s consumer confidence increased to 101 in June, up from 99 in May.Key Quotes“Actually, confidence amongst French consumers has risen non-stop in every month since the start of the year, whereas in Germany consumers have become more gloomy almost non-stop during this period. An important reason for this divergence seems to be that the German economy is much more exposed to the decline in global trade and the uncertainties related to the global trade conflict than France’s.” “The share of exports to countries outside the EU in Germany’s GDP (approximately 16%) is around twice as high as that of France. Indeed, Germany’s exports growth has slowed much more sharply than France’s export growth since the start of 2018. Consequently, overall GDP growth in Germany has also been much weaker than in France, with Germany’s GDP having grown by merely 0.2% in total during the three quarters to 2019Q1 and France’s GDP by 1.0%.” “On top of that there might have been some positive impact on confidence in France from the extra government spending and tax cuts that were announced by President Macron following the yellow vests protest. The details of France’s consumer confidence report shows that the assessment of the past and future standard of living each increased noticeably in June and each moved to levels above their long-term averages in that month.” “Meanwhile, Germany has not yet published the details of confidence in July, but the detailed report for June shows that the decline in confidence in that month was entirely due to a drop in the component gauging income expectations.”

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Wakatabe is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that there is no immediate need to review the BOJ policy f

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Wakatabe is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that there is no immediate need to review the BOJ policy framework.

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets showed open interest rose for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 1.6K contrac

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets showed open interest rose for the third session in a row on Wednesday, this time by around 1.6K contracts. Volume, instead, went down by almost 38/9K contracts.USD/JPY now targets monthly peaks at 108.80USD/JPY has reversed the recent pessimism and started a correction higher sustained by rising open interest in tandem with declining prices in the Japanese safe haven.  The shift in sentiment around the US-China trade front is mainly collaborating with the up move, while the squeeze higher carries the potential to test monthly tops in the 108.80 area.

Forex today in Asia cheered a renewed risk-on wave, fueled by the reports that the US-China have reached a tentative trade truce, as markets await the

Forex today in Asia cheered a renewed risk-on wave, fueled by the reports that the US-China have reached a tentative trade truce, as markets await the G20 Summit. The anti-risk slipped across the board while the safe-haven Gold traded on the back foot below 1410 levels. The USD/JPY pair popped the 108 handle while the AUD/USD pair extended the upside to 0.70 handle. However, the further upside was limited by the resurgent US dollar demand across the board, in the face of trade optimism that would ease the Fed rate cut expectations. The Treasury yields also traded firmer, leaving the EUR/USD and the Cable under pressure. The Kiwi consolidated the gains below the 0.67 handle amid negative oil prices. The Swiss franc suffered heavy losses, as the USD/CHF pair rallied above 0.9800 on a better sentiment towards the risk assets.Main Topics in AsiaTurkish President Erdogan: US President Donald Trump is considering a visit to Turkey in July – Nikkei Brexit: Remainer rebel MPs to mount a dramatic bid to block a no deal brexit next week – The Sun Australia leads secret trade negotiations that will sideline US – The Sydney Morning Herald NZD/USD: No response to dismal New Zealand business confidence reading China's industrial profits rebound 1.1% y/y in May, Aussie tests 0.7000 Goldman Sachs slashes US 10-year yield forecast to 1.7% - Bloomberg BOJ’s Wakatabe: Prolonged US - China trade tensions could exert increasing downward pressure on global economy Sources: US-China reported to have reached a trade truce – SCMP Japan’s Suga: Absolutely no talk of reviewing US-Japan security S. Korean UnificationMin: Recent comments made by North Korea shows mistrust still remains WTI seesaws around 200-D EMA as investors ascertain scope for trade truce at G20 US Pres. Trump calls on India's PM Modi to withdraw recently imposed tariffs, Rupee trims lossesKey Focus AheadThursday’s macro calendar looks a busy one, with a string of Eurozone business and consumer confidence numbers dropping in at 0900 GMT, followed by the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, due at 1200 GMT. Ahead of the US open, the US weekly Jobless Claims, Q1 Final GDP revision and Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices will be reported at 1230 GMT. Also, of note remains the US Pending Home Sales due at 1400 GMT among other minority reports. Despite the macro releases, the US-China trade-related headlines will continue to drive the market sentiment and US dollar price-action amid easing Fed rate cut expectations. EUR/USD struggles despite US-China trade truce, focus on German inflation EUR/USD is on the defensive, but holding above the 200-day moving average. Reports of US-China trade truce are boding well for the US Dollar. An above-forecast German CPI could yield a rally in EUR/USD.  GBP/USD: Less attention to UK politics as all eyes on trade headlines UK political hustings, statements from MPs couldn’t lure the GBP/USD traders. Markets await fresh headlines from the G20 meeting for fresh impulse. US data can offer intermediate trade opportunities. Gold technical analysis: Off 6-year highs, but breakout on monthly chart a done deal Gold has pulled back from six-year highs reached earlier this week. Daily chart indicators reporting overbought conditions. The monthly chart shows a channel breakout and scope for a rally to $1,522.  US Q1 GDP Final Revision Preview: Look ahead not behind The second revision and third version of the first quarter annualized GDP are expected to be unchanged at 3.1%. The initial release was 3.2% and the first revision was 3.1%. White House: Trump-Xi trade meeting set for Saturday at 0230 GMT in Osaka A White House spokesman told Reuters late-Wednesday, the US. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold the trade talks in Osaka at 11:30 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) on Saturday at the G20.  

Open interest in GBP futures markets rose by around 1.8K contracts on Wednesday according to advanced figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volum

Open interest in GBP futures markets rose by around 1.8K contracts on Wednesday according to advanced figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume shrunk by nearly 25.1K contracts amidst erratic performance.GBP/USD upside capped above 1.2700Cable is extending the sideline theme below 1.2700 the figure so far today. The continuation of the current pattern in prices is likely on the back of unclear trends in both open interest and volume.

ANZ analysts note that the New Zealand’s headline business confidence reversed May’s lift, down 6 points to net -38% in June’s ANZ Business Outlook. K

ANZ analysts note that the New Zealand’s headline business confidence reversed May’s lift, down 6 points to net -38% in June’s ANZ Business Outlook.Key Quotes“Firms’ views of their own activity fell just 1 point to +8%. Other activity indicators were also fairly steady.” “Inflation indicators were mixed: pricing intentions fell, reported cost pressures were unchanged, and inflation expectations lifted slightly.” “Residential construction intentions bounced. However, the construction sector has the weakest employment and profitability intentions across the economy.”

In light of preliminary figures from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by just 413 contracts on Wednesday while volume shrunk

In light of preliminary figures from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by just 413 contracts on Wednesday while volume shrunk by around 60.1K contracts, extending the choppy performance seen as of late.EUR/USD comes under pressure near the 200-day SMAEUR/USD appears on the defensive following the indecisive price action on Wednesday and the bearish ‘outside day’ charted the earlier in the week. Declining open interest and volume amidst unclear direction in prices leaves the door open for some near term consolidation although odds for a deeper correction remains well on the cards.

Failure to grow much beyond the monthly high, coupled with overbought levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI), drag the EUR/GBP pair presently down.

Overbought RSI limits the EUR/GBP’s capacity to rise past-monthly top.An upward sloping trend-line since early-May limits near-term declines.Failure to grow much beyond the monthly high, coupled with overbought levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI), drag the EUR/GBP pair presently down to 0.8952 heading into the European open on Thursday. Having said that, a 7-week old support-line at 0.8926 gains sellers’ immediate attention, while the 21-day exponential moving average (21-D EMA) at 0.8894 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January to March dip around 0.8870, may please the bears afterward. In a case where prices keep trading southwards past-0.8870, February month top near 0.8842 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8794 may come back on the chart. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s successful rally beyond 0.8975/77 area, including latest tops, can flash 0.9000 for buyers whereas 0.9060 and 0.9120 can please them during further advances. EUR/GBP daily chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Standard Chartered analysts point out that India’s final budget for FY20 (year ending March 2020) will be presented on 5 July by Nirmala Sitharaman, t

Standard Chartered analysts point out that India’s final budget for FY20 (year ending March 2020) will be presented on 5 July by Nirmala Sitharaman, the country’s first full-time female finance minister.Key Quotes“The new government faces several challenges in delivering the budget: (1) increasing calls for fiscal stimulus in a slowing economy; (2) an already-wide fiscal deficit, accounting for off-balance-sheet spending; (3) a lack of clarity on the growth impact of the fiscal stimulus announced in the interim budget in February 2019 (amounting to c.0.5% of GDP and not yet fully implemented); and (4) the pending report by the Jalan Committee on the appropriate economic capital framework for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which may have fiscal implications.” “Given that monetary policy is already accommodative, we believe sticking to existing fiscal targets would be most beneficial course of action for the economy in the short and long term.” “We expect the government to maintain the FY20 fiscal deficit target of 3.4% of GDP set in February 2019; this is unchanged from the actual FY19 deficit.” “FY20 revenue and expenditure projections are likely to be adjusted lower given the deviation from the revised estimates in FY19. Both revenue and spending undershot revised estimates by 1% of GDP.” “We expect downward revisions to FY20 revenue projections to be driven primarily by lower income tax and GST collection targets. Expenditure projections are likely to be lowered accordingly in order to meet the 3.4% deficit target; we expect cuts to be made mostly to revenue expenditure rather than capital expenditure targets, which are already moderate. Despite expected downward revisions, the final budget presented in July might still overestimate revenues and expenditures in FY20, in line with the trend in past years.”

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the New Zealand’s business confidence fell in June, and remains close to the very low levels

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the New Zealand’s business confidence fell in June, and remains close to the very low levels it reached shortly after the election of the Labour-led Government in late-2017.Key Quotes“Firms' impression of their own business activity levels fell only slightly. Activity responses in the survey have hovered about these low levels since the last election.” “We had expected that business confidence would lift a little in the wake of the Government's decision to cancel capital gains tax, but that has not happened. It is difficult to discern much signal from this survey given that it carries such an obvious political bias. But we have noticed that actual business investment and hiring decisions have cooled recently, so low business confidence really has impacted the economy. Today's data gives little hint that that situation has changed.” “Turning to actual economic activity, the detail in the survey did improve slightly. Most notably, residential construction expectations lifted sharply, and have now recovered from a surprising drop over the previous two months. This removes any doubt about the strength of residential construction activity at present. Intentions to invest and employ were up only slightly, and intentions to invest were down a touch.”  

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is picking up further pace in the second half of the week and is looking to consolidate the rece

DXY pushes higher above the 96.30 level on Thursday.US 10-year yields climb to tops around 2.06%.US-China trade dispute in centre stage ahead of G-20.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is picking up further pace in the second half of the week and is looking to consolidate the recent breakout of the 96.00 barrier.US Dollar Index looks to trade, dataThe index has resumed the upside today following Wednesday’s doji-like candle and Tuesday’s bullish ‘outside day’, managing to retake the 96.00 mark and move to weekly tops. Investors remain optimistic on the US-China trade front after auspicious comments from Secretary S.Mnuchin yesterday, opening the door to a constructive meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jingpin at the G-20 event in the upcoming days. Hopes of a US-China trade deal have improved the sentiment among the riskier assets and lifted yields from recent lows in sub-2.0% levels, accompanying the bounce of the buck. In the US docket, the final Q1 GDP figures are likely to be revised a tad higher, while attention will also be on prices tracked by the PCE. In addition, the usual report on the labour market is also expected seconded by Pending Home Sales and a 7-year note auction.What to look for around USDSpeculations of a rate cut as early as the next meeting have lost traction in past hours after Fed’s Powell remove some tailwinds from that idea supported by comments from member J.Bullard. The case, however, of lower rates in the near/medium term remains in place for the time being. The Fed is expected to keep the data-dependent stance intact while it continues to scrutinize the US-China trade situation and weakness overseas.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.19% at 96.36 and faces the next hurdle at 96.58 (200-day SMA) seconded by 97.34 (55-day SMA) and finally 97.77 (high Jun.18). On the other hand, a breach of 95.82 (low Feb.28) would open the door to 95.74 (low Mar.20) and then 95.16 (low Jan.31).

Despite witnessing British political drama during the early Asian morning, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2680 while heading into the London open.

UK political hustings, statements from MPs couldn’t lure the GBP/USD traders.Markets await fresh headlines from the G20 meeting for fresh impulse.US data can offer intermediate trade opportunities.Despite witnessing British political drama during the early Asian morning, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2680 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Final candidates for the UK Prime Minister’s post, namely Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, recently took part in the digital hustings to lure Conservatives. That said, the frontrunner Boris Johnson’s U-turn from previous Brexit bias got major market attention. Also, The Guardian says that some of the Tories are likely to join the cross-party plan to put forward various proposals concerning the Brexit soon. Among them, rejection of no deal Brexit and blocking major government spending on hard Brexit grab the spotlights. However, traders showed little reaction to the British political news as markets await headlines from Japan where the world’s 20 most powerful national leaders will meet. While trade headlines from the G20 are likely to dominate near-term market sentiment, the US first quarter Q1 2019 gross domestic product (GDP), Pending Home Sales and Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices could offer intermediate trade opportunities. The US GDP is likely to remain unchanged at 3.1% if following annualized figures on a quarterly basis; though, GDP price index might increase to 0.8% from 0.5%. Further, Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices are also expected to remain unchanged at 1.0% on a quarterly format whereas Pending Home Sales could reverse previous -1.5% contraction with +1.0% gain during May month. Technical Analysis A Doji candle on the daily chart might trigger the pair’s pullback from previous selling towards the week’s high around 1.2785 that holds the key to its run-up to 1.2860/65 region comprising 100-day exponential moving average (100-D EMA) and April month low. Alternatively, 1.2660 and 1.2600 can entertain sellers before highlighting the month’s low near 1.2506.

The latest statement released by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cites that it has asked the banks not to lower mortgage rates further. No further d

The latest statement released by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cites that it has asked the banks not to lower mortgage rates further. No further details are provided on the same. Meanwhile, the Aussie consolidates the latest upmove just below the 0.70 handle amid renewed trade optimism, unmoved by the PBOC statement. 

EUR/USD is trading on the defensive at press time despite reports of US-China trade truce. As of writing, the currency pair is trading at 1.1360, repr

EUR/USD is on the defensive, but holding above the 200-day moving average. Reports of US-China trade truce are boding well for the US Dollar. An above-forecast German CPI could yield a rally in EUR/USD. EUR/USD is trading on the defensive at press time despite reports of US-China trade truce. As of writing, the currency pair is trading at 1.1360, representing 0.10 percent losses on the day.  South China Morning Post reported in Asia that the US and China have tentatively agreed to another truce ahead of the weekend's G-20 meeting. The news lifted the Asian stocks and pushed the JPY lower across the board, but did little to boost EUR/USD.  Greenback's resilience could be associated with the three basis point rise in the US 10-year yield. It is worth noting that easing of trade tensions between the US and China, if any, would also ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to cut rates. Therefore, the talk of temporary US-China trade truce could continue to bode well for the US Dollar in the European session.  That said, EUR/USD's technical outlook is still bullish with the pair holding above the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline support (former resistance). Further, the pair continues to trade above the 200-day moving average at 1.1352, having defended the key support in the previous two days.  As a result, a big move to the higher side, possibly to Tuesday's high of 1.1412, could be seen if the preliminary German consumer price index for June blows past expectations. The data due at 12:00 GMT is expected to show the cost of living in Eurozone's biggest economy rose 0.1 percent month-on-month in June, having risen 0.2 percent in the preceding month.  Eurozone's key long-term market inflation gauge – the five-year, five-year breakeven forward rate – is already up 10 basis points since Draghi's speech on Tuesday. The gauge would rise further if the German inflation data prints above estimate, weakening the case for an early European Central Bank rate cut and pushing the EUR higher across the board.  The pair, however, will likely find acceptance below the 200-day MA if the German data misses expectations by a big margin. Post-German data, the focus would shift to the third and final version of the US first-quarter gross domestic product, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. Pivot levels   

US Pres. Trump calls on India's PM Modi to withdraw recently imposed tariffs

According to Reuters, the US President Trump urged India's PM Modi to withdraw recently imposed tariffs. Trump said that “this is unacceptable”.

Estimates from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent think tank, showed on Thursday. Jeremy Hunt’s, UK Foreign Secretary and Prime Mi

Estimates from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), an independent think tank, showed on Thursday. Jeremy Hunt’s, UK Foreign Secretary and Prime Minister (PM) hopeful plans for tax cuts and more defense spending carry a cost of around 36 billion pounds ($46 billion) a year. Additional Insights (via Reuters): “The IFS this week put a 20 billion-pound estimate on the tax cuts promised by Boris Johnson who is competing with Hunt to succeed Theresa May.” IFS Director Paul Johnson said: “Like his rival, Jeremy Hunt has made some expensive pledges in his campaign to become prime minister.” “Hunt’s proposal to cut tax on company profits to 12.5% from 17% would cost about 13 billion pounds a year initially, though possibly less in the longer term if it encouraged multinational businesses to book profits in Britain.”

With the 100 and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) limiting the USD/INR pair’s immediate upside, the quote is taking the rounds to 69.25 on Thursday.

A confluence region around 69.82/85, comprising key EMAs, limits near-term USD/INR upside.10-week old horizontal support regains market attention during the pullback.With the 100 and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) limiting the USD/INR pair’s immediate upside, the quote is taking the rounds to 69.25 during early Thursday. Considering the pair’s failure to cross the key resistance confluence, its drop to re-test the 69.00 – 69.05 area can’t be denied. However, additional weakness beneath 69.00 might not refrain from calling the March month low of 68.34 back to the chart. On the upside break of 68.82/85 confluence region, the pair can initially rise to 50% Fibonacci retracement of February to March downside at 70.13 while targeting May month top surrounding 71.00 during further advances. USD/INR daily chartTrend: Bearish  

Risk reversals on Swiss Franc (CHF), the gauge of calls to puts, fell to 15-month lows on Wednesday, indicating the investors are adding bets to posit

Risk reversals on Swiss Franc (CHF), the gauge of calls to puts, fell to 15-month lows on Wednesday, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for further strength in Switzerland's currency.  USD/CHF one-month 25 delta risk reversals traded at -1.25 yesterday, the lowest level since March 2018. The negative print indicates the implied volatility premium for CHF calls (or USD/CHF puts) is higher than that for CHF puts (or USD/CHF calls).  A call option gives the holder (buyer) the right (but not the obligation) to buy a specified quantity of an underlying asset at a specified price within a fixed period of time. Essentially, call options represent bullish bets and put options represent bearish bets.  The USD/CHF pair is inching closer to 0.98 at press time, having scored gains in the previous two months. However, the rising demand for CHF calls (USD/CHF puts), as shown by risk reversals, indicates the relief rally could be short-lived.  CHF1MRR  

Following its run up to the highest in five weeks, WTI struggles to extend the north-run as it takes the rounds to $59.15 during early Thursday.

Energy buyers search for clues to extend the latest rally following the EIA data/trade optimism.G20 is on the spotlight.Following its run up to the highest in five weeks, WTI struggles to extend the north-run as it takes the rounds to $59.15 during early Thursday. Immediate contributors to the black gold’s rally were the weekly announcement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) US crude inventory data and comments from the US lawmakers highlighting brighter chances of the US-China trade truce. Although Chinese media also spread optimism surrounding the trade talks between the US and China, investors awaited further clues to extend the rally further beyond 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA). With most crude-linked data out and loud, clues from the G20 meeting between the global leaders at Japan could direct immediate energy moves. Additionally, the US Dollar (USD) momentum will also be on the radar as the greenback has a negative correlation with commodities. Technical Analysis FXStreet Analyst, Ross J. Burland, is bullish on the energy benchmark while citing its break of 200-D EMA: WTI is above the 200-Experiential Moving Average and has eyes for the $60 psychological figure which correlates with trend line resistance. A break there opens 63.79 swing highs. On the flipside, bears can target back down to the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo. around the 52 handle. Lower down, there are prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44

China working together with the US, despite the rivalry, is central to progress in North Korea's nuclear dismantlement. Recent comments made by North

China working together with the US, despite the rivalry, is central to progress in North Korea's nuclear dismantlement. Recent comments made by North Korea shows mistrust still remains. But inter-Korea commercial projects can be used as leverage to boost talks. We can use these as leverage in engaging in negotiations with North Korea.

Gold is currently trading at $1,408 per Oz, representing a 2.1 percent drop from the six-year high of $1,439 reached earlier this week. With the 14-da

Gold has pulled back from six-year highs reached earlier this week. Daily chart indicators reporting overbought conditions. The monthly chart shows a channel breakout and scope for a rally to $1,522. Gold is currently trading at $1,408 per Oz, representing a 2.1 percent drop from the six-year high of $1,439 reached earlier this week.  With the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) still holding well above 70.00, the yellow metal may drop below $1,400 in the next 24-36 hours. Also, reports of temporary US-China trade truce could weigh over the safe haven metal. That said, a slide all the way back to $1,360 looks unlikely, as the markets are expecting the US Federal Reserve to cut rates three times this year.  Further, the momentum studies continue to favor the bulls. For instance, the 5- and 10-day moving averages are trending north and the latter, currently located at $1,383, could offer support.  Put simply, a fall all the way back to $1,360 by Friday's NY close looks unlikely. The metal, therefore, looks set to confirm a bullish breakout on the monthly chart with a close above $1,360.  Monthly chart The channel breakout further confirms the long-term bearish-to-bullish trend change first signaled by the violation of the descending trendline in July 2017.  The relative strength index is also reporting bullish condition with an above-50 print.  All-in-all, the stage looks set for a further rally toward $1,522 (December 2011 low). The bullish case would weaken in case the price finds acceptance below $1,360.Trend: BullishPivot points     

The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is out with a review report on the Australian banking sector, with the key findings found below.

The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service, is out with a review report on the Australian banking sector, with the key findings found below. Australian banks' loan growth has slowed on the housing correction while problem loans have ticked up. Australian bank problem loan ratios have increased but overall asset quality remains strong. Loan and deposit growth is slowing, easing funding requirements and lowering funding costs.

A White House spokesman told Reuters late-Wednesday, the US. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold the trade talks in Osak

A White House spokesman told Reuters late-Wednesday, the US. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold the trade talks in Osaka at 11:30 a.m. local time (0230 GMT) on Saturday at the G20. On Wednesday, the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the US-China trade deal is almost 90% complete. While recently the SCMP reported that the US-China trade truce is reached.

The anti-risk Japanese Yen is losing ground, pushing the USD/JPY higher possibly due to reports the US and China have agreed to another truce in their

USD/JPY is better bid likely on reports of US-China trade truce.  With Asian stocks witnessing risk reset, the anti-risk JPY has come under pressure.  The anti-risk Japanese Yen is losing ground, pushing the USD/JPY higher possibly due to reports the US and China have agreed to another truce in their trade war.  South China Morning Post published a report about 30 minutes ago stating the world's two biggest economies have agreed to a tentative truce ahead of the G-20 meeting, paving way for a fresh round of negotiations. More importantly, the US is said to have delayed  So far, neither the White House nor the Office of the US Trade Representative has commented on the reports. The risky assets, however, seem to have picked up a bid in response to the trade truce news. As of writing, the futures on the s&P 500 are up 0.32 percent and the Chinese stocks are reporting a 1 percent gain.  Notably, the USD/jPY pair has added about 30 pips in the last thirty minutes. At press time, the currency pair is trading at 107.98, having hit a session high of 108.03 a few minutes ago.  Looking forward, the pair may remain bid in Europe, courtesy of the temporary pause in the Sino-US trade war. Big gains, however, look unlikely, as the previous talks had collapsed suddenly and investors may avoid being overoptimistic this time.  After all, stakes are high this time as President Trump has promised to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports if the weekend's talks go poorly. Pivot levels 

The already bid AUD/JPY is extending gains on reports of US-China trade truce. The currency pair is currently trading at 75.60, the highest level sinc

AUD/JPY climbs to fresh two-week highs. Risk reset looks likely on reports of US-China trade truce.AUD/JPY's chart shows scope for a rise to 76.00.The already bid AUD/JPY is extending gains on reports of US-China trade truce.  The currency pair is currently trading at 75.60, the highest level since June 11, representing 0.37% gains on the day.  Notably, the pair has added more than 10 pips in the last few minutes, possibly due to report by South China Morning Post that the US and China have tentatively agreed to another truce in their trade war, paving way for a fresh round of negotiations.  With the temporary truce, President Trump has reportedly delayed the next round of tariffs on an additional US$300 billion of Chinese imports. The news seems to be boding well for risky assets. For instance, the futures on the S&P 500 are up 0.32% at press time and the Shanghai Composite is adding 1%.  As a result, the anti-risk Japanese Yen may continue to lose ground in Europe.  The AUD/JPY pair has violated the falling trendline from April 17 highs and the 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) are reporting a bullish crossover. As a result, the JPY cross could rise further toward 76.00 during the day ahead. Pivot points   

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is out on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that there is absolutely no talk of reviewing US-Japan security. No

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is out on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that there is absolutely no talk of reviewing US-Japan security. No further details are provided on the same.

Gold prices trade sideways as global markets await developments from the G20 in order to determine near-term trade direction.

Nervous trading ahead of the key event holds the yellow metal captive after recent declines.G20 developments, US data are on the spotlight for fresh impulse.While latest comments from the US Treasury Secretary triggered some risk-off during late-Wednesday, activating the yellow metal’s pullback, Gold prices remain mostly flat around $1408 amid Thursday morning in Asia. Yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said that he sees brighter chances of the US-China trade deal for which 90% task is already done. His comments pleased investors ahead of the key G20 meeting Japan that’s becoming even more important due to the likely trade talks between the US and China. However, the global news wires seem to have dried off-late as lawmakers travel to the venue. As a result, investors await more clues as to how the US and China can reach the trade deal while meeting on a Saturday dinner. 10-year US Treasury yield, followed to understand global risk sentiment, holds tightly to 2.05% after recovering in previous day. Elsewhere, Reuters’ news that India’s gold consumption is declining for the third straight month also weakened the bullion prices because the Asian nation is among the yellow metal’s top buyers. In addition to the G20 developments, first quarter (Q1) gross domestic product (GDP) data from the US will also be the key to watch. The US Q1 2019 GDP is likely to reiterate 3.1% annualized mark on a quarterly basis. Technical Analysis While $1400 round-figure holds the door for the safe-haven’s decline to 2018 high around $1366, the current year top surrounding $1347 could be sellers’ call during further declines. On the flipside, $1424 and $1438.66 seem nearby resistances to conquer before heading towards May 2013 high near $1488.

AUD/USD has made bullish tracks and leans with an upside bias still, en route to the 200-D exponential moving average (EMA) around the 0.70 handle. Th

Downside opens .6930s and the 21-day ma ahead of 0.6830 swing lows.Upside eyes 200-D exponential moving average (EMA) around the 0.70 handle.AUD/USD has made bullish tracks and leans with an upside bias still, en route to the 200-D exponential moving average (EMA) around the 0.70 handle. The first challenge will be the 55-day ma at 0.6984, Other notable levels are 0.7022 as the June peak and the April top at 0.7069 that guard a run towards 0.7207 February high and the December 2018 high at 0.7394. To the downside, a break of the channel support opens a run to 0.6930s and the 21-day ma ahead of 0.6830 swing lows.    

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) carries fresh headlines, citing that the US and China are said to have reached a trade truce even before the G20 h

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) carries fresh headlines, citing that the US and China are said to have reached a trade truce even before the G20 has started and before the Trump and Xi scheduled meeting this Saturday. Key Points: Fresh tariffs expected to be delayed with two sides preparing separate statements Source says Donald Trump's decision to delay additional tariffs was Xi Jinping's price for holding this week's meeting with him Details of the agreement are being laid out

More comments are hitting the wires from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary board member Wakatabe, as he talks about the downside risks to the economy.

More comments are hitting the wires from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary board member Wakatabe, as he talks about the downside risks to the economy. The Japanese economy is no longer in deflation. We need to be increasingly vigilant to downside risks. The economy likely to expand moderately as a trend. Tools like QQE, negative rates, forward guidance will likely be used depending on economic conditions. If US-China trade tensions are prolonged, that could exert increasing downward pressure on the global economy. If the slowdown in overseas growth persists, that would weigh on Japan's domestic demand.

Goldman Sachs has revised lower its year-end forecast for the US 10-year treasury yield to 1.75% from the previous projection of 2.80%, according to B

Goldman Sachs has revised lower its year-end forecast for the US 10-year treasury yield to 1.75% from the previous projection of 2.80%, according to Bloomberg.  As of writing, the benchmark yield is trading at 2.05%, representing 75 basis point drop on a year-to-date basis.  Key points U.S. 10-year yields are seen rebounding somewhat to 1.90% by mid-2020 Japan’s 10-year yields will breach the Bank of Japan’s tolerance zone by 10 basis points, hitting negative 0.3% by year-end German 10-year yields seen at negative 0.55% for year-end, versus 0.35% previously Ten-year gilts are forecast at 0.70% at year-end, against 1.85% before

The latest data published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that profits earnt by China’s industrial firms in May rose 1.1 y/y vs.

The latest data published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that profits earnt by China’s industrial firms in May rose 1.1 y/y vs. a 3.7% drop seen in April.In April, the drop in industrial profits was attributed to the cut in VAT. The Aussie cheers the upbeat Chinese macro news, testing daily tops just shy of the 0.70 handle while the Kiwi looks to regain the 0.67 handle.

Given the New Zealand’s ANZ data flashing mixed results, the AUD/NZD pair took a U-turn from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on early Thursday.

AUD/NZD bounces off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement after mixed NZ data.A downside break could recall March-end, early-April lows surrounding 1.0400.Given the New Zealand’s ANZ data flashing mixed results, the AUD/NZD pair took a U-turn from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its March-April upside to trade near 1.0467 amid Asian session on Thursday. New Zealand's June month ANZ Activity Outlook grew past-7.8% forecast to 8.0% but Business Confidence dropped below -22.7 market consensus to -38.1. While the pullback from the key support and the near oversold conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicates the pair’s further increase, 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100-day simple moving average (SMA) can question the rise near 1.0500/1.0510. If bulls manage to clear 1.0510 upside barrier, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 1.0560 and 200-day SMA level of 1.0587 may flash on their radar. On the flipside, pair’s decline below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0449 can quickly fetch the quote to March-end, early-April bottoms around 1.0400. During the pair’s additional weakness past-1.0400, March 20 high of 1.0383 and the same month’s low of 1.0275 can please the sellers. AUD/NZD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected 

Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain the ultra-easy monetary policy as long as needed to achieve the 2% inflation target, board member Wakatabe said on T

Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain the ultra-easy monetary policy as long as needed to achieve the 2% inflation target, board member Wakatabe said on Thursday.  Wakatabe further stressed that the normalization of policy is unlikely unless the economy and prices return to a normal state. Key quotes (Source: Reuters) Japan's economy likely to expand moderately as a trend as overseas growth likely to pick up somewhat. If QQE was not put in place Japan's economy would not have achieved the state where it was no longer in deflation. QQE had a strong stimulus effect on the economy and prices.  The planned sales tax hike could exert downward pressure on both the economy and prices.   

WTI is above the 200-Experiential Moving Average and has eyes for the $60 psychological figure which correlates with trend line resistance. A break th

WTI is above the 200-Experiential Moving Average and has eyes for the $60 psychological figure which correlates with trend line resistance. A break there opens 63.79 swing highs. On the flipside, bears can target back down to the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo around the 52 handle. Lower down, there are prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44.
 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8778 vs Wednesday's fix of 6.8701.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8778 vs Wednesday's fix of 6.8701.

NZD/USD is seeing little action even though New Zealand's business confidence index for June, as calculated by Australia New Zealand (ANZ) bank, print

NZD/USD remains mildly bid despite below-forecast New Zealand business confidence data.  New Zealand's business outlook for June printed above estimates.  NZD/USD is seeing little action even though New Zealand's business confidence index for June, as calculated by Australia New Zealand (ANZ) bank, printed well below estimates soon before press time.  The business confidence number fell to -38 in June, contradicting the expected improvement to -22.7 from May's figure of -32.0. The below-forecast June reading indicates the 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has failed to boost the sentiment.  Even so, NZD/USD remains mildly bid at 0.6684, possibly due to an improvement in the expected future state of the business, as represented by the ANZ activity outlook, which came in at 8%, beating the estimated growth of 7.8%. The data, however, printed well below the previous month's print of 8.5%.  The RBNZ kept the interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and retained dovish forward guidance, as expected. The markets are fully priced for a rate cut in July.  Looking ahead, the pair looks set to test the 200-day moving average at 0.6705, having reinforced the short-term bullish outlook with a strong bounce from the 5-day moving average on Wednesday.  A sustained break above the 200-day MA, however, may remain elusive if the US GDP data, due today at 12:30 GMT, is revised higher, forcing the markets to further scale back expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Pivot levels
     

Despite witnessing the crude’s rally to 5-week high, the USD/CAD pair offers little moves near the four-month bottom while taking the rounds to 1.3117.

Investors turn cautious before the key the G20 acquires the headlines.WTI fails to hold the 200-EMA breakout amid doubts over the future US-China trade deal.Despite witnessing the crude’s rally to 5-week high, the USD/CAD pair offers little moves near the four-month bottom while taking the rounds to 1.3117 during early Thursday. The underlying reason for the present Loonie moves could be WTI’s profit-booking on the break of the 200-day exponential moving average (200-EMA). Adding to the list is the nervous trading session as the 20 global leaders head for the meeting in Japan where trade protectionism will be the key, not to forget the US-China deal’s ability to grab the spotlight. Global risk sentiment gauge, the 10-year US Treasury yield is likely losing early-day strength while clocking in 2.042% by the press time. Moving on, the Canadian economic calendar remains empty for the day while final reading of the first quarter Q1 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices from the US may entertain market players. The US GDP (QoQ) is likely to reconfirm 3.1% previous forecast growth on an annualized basis while the Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices is also expected to remain unchanged at 1.0% on a quarterly format. Technical Analysis Despite oversold levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI), February month low near 1.3070, adjacent to November 2018 bottom surrounding 1.3050, can entertain sellers during further declines ahead of challenging them with 1.3000 round-figure. On the other hand, 1.3180 and early month low near 1.3242 can limit the quote’s near-term upside.

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook above forecasts (7.8%) in June: Actual (8%)

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence came in at -38.1 below forecasts (-22.7) in June

USD/JPY is currently trading at 107.73, stuck in a tight range this Tokyo open between 107.66 and 107.79, albeit en-route for the 21-day exponential a

USD/JPY a strong performer overnight, en-route to the 21-D EMA. USD/JPY 4-hour chart shows the pair with a clear bullish.USD/JPY is currently trading at 107.73, stuck in a tight range this Tokyo open between 107.66 and 107.79, albeit en-route for the 21-day exponential average. Overnight, the yen was weakest in the G10 and USD/JPY traded higher by 0.5% to 107.80 as U.S. yields continued to correct higher. The U.S. 2-year treasury yields rose from 1.72% to 1.77% while the 10-year yields from 2.00% to 2.05%. Markets continued to price in around 30bp of easing at the July meeting with a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020. Meanwhile, as for news and data, analysts at ANZ explained that the May US durable goods headline of -1.3% was weak and argued that the data provided some push back against a 50bp rate cut by the Fed, and market pricing adjusted accordingly. The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US and China “were about 90% of the way” to a deal. "Note that he was speaking in the past tense and clearly the final 10% was too difficult last month," analysts at Westpac argued.  USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, USD/JPY ran into an active resistance area at 107.80/90 that capped the upside: "Ahead of the Asian session, some consolidation and a pullback could take place considering that the gains seen on Wednesday were the biggest in months. The 107.50 zone is the immediate support, and far below comes 107.05. Below the last one, the bearish pressure will likely intensify. The 4-hour chart shows the pair with a clear bullish bias in line with technical indicators. A breakout above 107.80 could boost the greenback back above 108.00, targeting 108.30."

While global investors are eagerly waiting for clues from the G20 meeting in Japan, the Australian daily rolls out the news report of secret trade talks.

While global investors are eagerly waiting for clues from the G20 meeting in Japan, the Australian daily roll out the news report stating that the nation leads secret trade talks with that will sideline the US amid the ongoing economic fall-out from the US-China trade war. The news report mentions that 10 ASEAN member states and their partners; China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and India, will be locked in negotiations in Melbourne from Friday over an EU-style trade deal known as the pan-Asian Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

The GBP/USD pair risks falling to 1.25 in the short-term, as the greenback will likely benefit from markets scaling back expectations of an aggressive

The GBP/USD pair risks falling to 1.25 in the short-term, as the greenback will likely benefit from markets scaling back expectations of an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in July, according to analysts at Nomura.  A 25 basis point Fed rate cut now looks more likely than a 50 basis point cut priced in by markets earlier this month.  Further, the analysts believe the positives for Sterling, particularly the hawkish Bank of England (BOE), have faded.  BOE's chief Carney said on Wednesday that the central bank may have to cut interest rates in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

With a downward sloping trend-line since June 13 restricting the GBP/JPY pair’s upside, the quote drops to 136.75 during early Asian morning on Thursday.

A fortnight-long descending trend-line limits immediate upside.Declining RSI from the overbought area favors the pullback to 200-HMA.With a downward sloping trend-line since June 13 restricting the GBP/JPY pair’s upside, the quote drops to 136.75 during early Asian morning on Thursday. Not only the pair’s U-turn from key resistance-line but declining levels of 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) from the overbought region also favors the pullback towards the important support level comprising 200-hour moving average (200-HMA) at 136.45. If at all sellers refrain from respecting 200-HMA, a 9-day old ascending trend-line at 135.90 becomes crucial to watch as it holds the key for the pair’s slump to the month’s low near 135.37. On the upside break above 136.88, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of mid-month decline, at 137.20 seems a tough resistance. Should prices rally past-137.20, June 13 top surrounding 137.80 and 138.33 can become buyers’ favorites. GBP/JPY hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected  

USD/CNH's bounce from the recent low of 6.8365 has taken the shape of a bearish reversal pattern called a rising wedge and could be short-lived. As of

USD/CNH has charted a rising wedge pattern. A break below 6.8820 would confirm a rising wedge breakdown. USD/CNH's bounce from the recent low of 6.8365 has taken the shape of a bearish reversal pattern called a rising wedge and could be short-lived.  As of writing, USD/CNH is flirting with the lower edge of the rising wedge at 6.8820. A 4-hour close below that level would confirm a rising wedge breakdown and open the doors for a retest of the recent low of 6.8365.  The case for rising wedge breakdown looks stronger if we take into account the bearish crossover of the 50- and 200-candle moving averages on the 4-hour chart.  The case for rising wedge breakdown would weaken if the pair finds acceptance above 6.90.  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish below 6.8820Pivot points 

With the UK Prime Minister (PM) frontrunner Boris Johnson’s surprising comments on chances of the no-deal Brexit at the political hustings, GBP/USD recovers.

The UK PM candidates answered questions in digital hustings.Boris Johnson moves away from previous hard Brexit threat while Jeremy Hunt doubts the opponent’s ideas.Cross-party MPs to launch motions on key plans concerning the Brexit during next week.With the UK Prime Minister (PM) frontrunner Boris Johnson’s surprising comments on chances of the no-deal Brexit at the political hustings, followed by cross-party MPs’ plan to move forward to direct the Brexit, the GBP/USD takes the bids to 1.2700 during early Thursday. As a part of their promotion to lure over 160,000 Tory voters, the UK PM candidate Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt joined the digit hustings and answered questions. Out of the not so long communication channel, Mr. Johnson’s statement that the chances of a no-deal Brexit are a “million-to-one against” grabbed major attention after the PM candidate’s previous comments to crash out of the EU on 31 October “come what may, do or die”. Mr. Johnson also said one can manage to have a trade deal with the EU even after leaving without any deal on October 31, the same logic was aptly criticized by Jeremy Hunt. Elsewhere, The Guardian says that a group of cross-party members of the British parliaments (MPs) is planning to again put forward a motion to block the no-deal Brexit and also propose blocking all (likely most not all) the government spending in case of a hard exit sometime during next week. Moving on, the UK economic platter is almost empty, which in turn could shift traders towards politics and searching clues from elsewhere like the US data-line and the G20.Technical AnalysisMonth’s low around 1.2708 and the weekly top near 1.2785 are likely nearby resistances for the traders to watch whereas 1.2660 and 1.2600 can entertain sellers during the pullback.

The Dollar was mixed overnight, with the Yen the worst and the Kiwi the best performer. NZD/USD climbed from 0.6660 to 0.6693, a two-month high. USD/

 The Dollar was mixed overnight, with the Yen the worst and the Kiwi the best performer. NZD/USD climbed from 0.6660 to 0.6693, a two-month high. USD/JPY climbed 0.5% to 107.80 on the back of higher US yields.FX and markets, in general, were somewhat subdued with light data making for a mixed greenback. However, US yields continued to recover following the prior day's Fed less dovish speak. The Fed speakers continued to talk easier money conditions on Wednesday, with San Francisco Fed president Daly commenting on how uncomfortable she was with the low levels of inflation, concerned over wages growth. As for US yields, the 2-year treasury yield climbed from 1.72% to 1.77% with the 10-year yield rose from 2.00% to 2.05%.  On the data front, analysts at ANZ explained that the May US durable goods headline of -1.3% was weak and argued that the data provided some push back against a 50bp rate cut by the Fed, and market pricing adjusted accordingly. As for trade talk, the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US and China “were about 90% of the way” to a deal. "Note that he was speaking in the past tense and clearly the final 10% was too difficult last month," analysts at Westpac argued.  Meanwhile, US President Trump crossed the wires and said that the US Fed would be better off with the ECB’s Mario Draghi at the helm. Trump was comparing the Fed to a “stubborn child” and argues that they “blew it” this month when they didn’t cut. "It should be noted that Mr Draghi was less popular with Trump earlier this month when he signalled easier monetary conditions are likely on the way for Europe, with implications for EUR/USD," analysts at ANZ Bank said.  As for the price action, it left the Euro flat around 1.1370. Cable was net unchanged near 1.2700 by the close of the New York session and the yen was the weakest.  USD/JPY climbed 0.5% to 107.80 on the back of higher US yields. AUD/USD manged to advance on mixed feelings over the forthcoming Xi/Trump summit, extending a six-day rally from 0.6970 to 0.6990/95. The top performer was the Kiwi.  NZD/USD climbed from 0.6660 to 0.6693, a two-month high, following the RBNZ that came as less dovish than expected.  Key notes from Wall StreetWall Street benchmarks consolidate lower and the DJIA clings to the 4-HR pivotKey events ahead  China May industrial profits (expected April -3.7% for the year, no forecasts).

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) above expectations (-0.6%) in May: Actual (0.3%)

Japan Large Retailers' Sales above forecasts (-1.2%) in May: Actual (-0.5%)

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) meets forecasts (1.2%) in May

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥-95.4B to ¥-313.4B in June 21

Japan Foreign Bond Investment up to ¥445.4B in June 21 from previous ¥327.3B

The USD/IDR pair's sustained trading beyond 38.2% Fibonacci retracement has multiple upside resistances to justify the latest strength.

USD/IDR has multiple key resistances to justify the latest strength that broke 50% Fibonacci retracement.Buyers follow the pair’s sustained trading beyond 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, gradually rising RSI.While sustained trading beyond 38.2% Fibonacci retracement currently propels the USD/IDR pair to flash 14,218 during the early Asian session on Thursday, the pair still has some key resistances to break in order to justify the latest strength. Among the upside barriers, 100-hour moving average on the 4-hour chart (4H 100MA), becomes the first one to tackle at 14,233, a break of which can escalate the quote’s advances to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-June decline at 14,311 and 200-hour moving average (4H 200MA) level around 14,321. However, five-week-old descending trend-line near 14,343 may limit the pair’s rise past-14,321 if not then month’s top near 14,416 could lure the buyers. Alternatively, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 14,095 and a downward sloping trend-line since June 03, at 14,053 holds the gate for the pair’s slump to latest flash crash low around $13750. USD/IDR 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Even if the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains optimistic of their future relations with the US, the USD/TRY pair remains little changed.

Turkish President hopeful of avoiding the US sanctions despite buying Russian S-400 missiles.President Erdogan plans to discuss issues with the US President at G20 while mentioning his visit to Turkey in July.Markets show little reaction ahead of the headlines from the G20.Even if the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains optimistic of their future relations with the US after his meeting with the President Trump at G20, markets show little reaction to the news and the USD/TRY remains modestly flat under 21-DMA while taking the rounds to 5.7738 during early Thursday morning in Asia. In his interview with the Nikkei, President Erdogan said he is planning to meet and discuss latest rift with the US over the purchase of the Russian S-400 missiles to end the deadlock of their bilateral relations. Mr. Erdogan says that he hope the US President Donald Trump understands the Turkish reasons behind purchasing the arms while he meets him at the sidelines of the G20. Further to his interview, he mentioned that the US President is considering a visit to Turkey during July, near the time the Russia missiles will reach the home. As per the Bloomberg news report, the US President was considering to levy fresh three sanction package on the Turkish economy due to their purchase of Russian S-400 missiles. Though, nothing fresh has been arrived since then while the Turkish leader expects no such moves from the US after the G20 meeting. The Turkish Lira (TRY) traders seem cold-blooded to the positive news as they might be waiting for actual developments at the G20 after the US-Turkey leader meet. Though, greater attention will be given to the US-China leaders’ handshake. Technical Analysis A 21-day moving average (21-DMA) caps the pair’s immediate upside around 5.8122, a break of which can propel prices towards the month’s high near 5.9331. However, a downside break of 5.7010 mark comprising 100-DMA might not refrain from dragging the quote to monthly bottom surrounding 5.6621.

The sun has published an article reporting that remainer rebel MPs are to mount a dramatic new bid to block a No Deal Brexit next week by cutting off

The sun has published an article reporting that remainer rebel MPs are to mount a dramatic new bid to block a No Deal Brexit next week by cutting off the Government’s money supply. The fresh attempt is being led by former Tory Attorney General Dominic Grieve and ex-Labour Foreign Secretary Dame Margaret Beckett. The cross-party duo have tabled amendments to routine finance legislation – dubbed estimates - that was set to be nodded through on Tuesday July 2. If the plan succeeds, the new PM will be forced to either pass a withdrawal agreement with the EU through the Commons or win its permission for a No Deal exit on October 31 first. If they fail, funding to a series of key Government ministries will be immediately cut off, and Whitehall will be plunged into a standstill. Confirming the plan, Mr Grieve told The Sun: “The suggestion that we could or should be taken out of the EU without the consent of the House of Commons is fundamentally wrong, and frankly unconstitutional. The new plan “The fact that it is being suggested as a viable option is unacceptable. “The Commons should put down such markers as it can that such a course of action is acceptable.” Mr Grieve added: “I encourage all MPs to support it no matter what party they’re from”. Tory leadership contenders Boris Johnson  and Jeremy Hunt have both pledged to execute a No Deal exit if talks for a new  agreement  with the EU fail. The move sparked fury among Brexiteers. Vice chair of the Eurosceptic Tory ERG Mark Francois said: “After the European elections it is clear that the British public are utterly sick and tired of MPs playing parliamentary games to frustrate Brexit. “The idea some utterly Europhile MPs are threatening to withhold school funding or benefits payments is abhorrent, and I hope and believe this amendment will be defeated.”   The pound will otherwise be under pressure on the notion of a hard Brexit.GBP/USD technical analysis: Cable hovering near weekly lows sub-1.2700 figure

Antipodean FX outperformed in the G10 basket and AUD/JPY is currently trading at 75.27, capped by the 200-day exponential moving average, EMA, consoli

AUD/JPY bulls will struggle on deteriorating economic data.On the downside, 73.93 is the daily swing low target. Antipodean FX outperformed in the G10 basket and AUD/JPY is currently trading at 75.27, capped by the 200-day exponential moving average, EMA, consolidating following a burst through the 21-day EMA overnight.  The pair is subject to risk appetite which waned leading into the G20 this week as investors turn pessimistic ahead of an expected meeting between the presidents of China and the US. A senior US administration official said the goal of the meeting on June 29 is to reopen negotiations rather than reach a broad trade pact, according to Reuters. However, there are slim chances of a breakthrough. Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Barings both said it is unlikely trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies will be fully resolved at a meeting and recommends defensive investment strategies. Merrill Lynch is predicting that negotiations could “end in another ceasefire, with both sides delaying additional tariffs”- such an outcome should be positive for risk and the AUD/JPY. As for US data, the May US durable goods headline outturn of -1.3% was weak and weighs on the greenback following yesterday's miss in Consumer Confidence. AUD/JPY will be unable to perform on a deteriorating economic backdrop and stocks will be a key factor going forward. As can be seen in the chart below, there is a strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence the price of the S&P 500 index, (red), with periods of US recession: AUD/JPY levels The cross has met the 200-D EMA and eyes are set on the 76 handle meeting the 50-D EMA. Stochastics on the daily chart are leaning bullish, crossing over 50 having turned higher out of oversold territory earlier in the month as the price broke above the trendline resistance. On the downside, 73.93 is the daily swing low target. 

Not only positive comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin but the absence of the US criticism from Chinese media also please AUD/USD buyers.

Comments from the US Treasury Secretary, together with the absence of criticism from Chinese media, build sentiment surrounding G20.The US President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Fed added strength into the Antipodeans.Lack of data at home highlights trade developments at the much awaited global meet.Not only positive comments from the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin but the absence of the US criticism from Chinese media and sustained doubts over the Fed’s ideology by the US President favor the AUD/USD pair to remain strong around 0.6990 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The US Treasury Secretary recently mentioned that he is hopeful of a trade deal with China and 90% of work is complete. Though, the timing of the deal is less clear. Traders took it as a positive signal to the G20 meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart XI Jinping which is keenly awaited. While the Australian economic line remains short, the President Trump’s repeated criticism to the US Federal Reserve’s refrain from rate cuts and absence of upbeat US data offered an additional boost to the Aussie. Market risk sentiment also improved ahead of the key global meeting with the 10-year US bond yields recovering their stand above 2.00% mark. Even if the Trump-Xi meeting is likely to take place tomorrow, how global leaders react to the latest US sanctions and counteractions from the President Trump will entertain market players amid the lack of major Aussie data. Technical Analysis A sustained trading beyond 50-day simple moving average (SMA) enables buyers to aim for the current month high close to 0.7022, a break of which can escalate the recovery in the direction to 100-day SMA level of 0.7037. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.6963 immediate SMA support can drag the quote back to May-end low surrounding 0.6900

RBNZ statement differing from its global central bank peers and market optimism surrounding G20 pleases NZD/USD buyers ahead of ANZ data.

Less dovish RBNZ statement, upbeat market sentiment pleases NZD/USD buyers.Details from G20, New Zealand ANZ survey data awaited for fresh clues.With the RBNZ statement differing from its global central bank peers and market optimism surrounding G20 pleasing commodity-linked currencies, the NZD/USD stays modestly flat near 10-week high while taking the rounds to 0.6680 amid initial Asian trading session on Thursday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) not only met the market’s wide expectations of no rate change announcement but also sound less pessimistic in its statement at the recent monetary policy meeting. The central bank joined the latest a slew of less dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve policymakers that have renewed trade sentiment off-late. Though, sluggish data from the US and the US President Donald Trump’s criticism to the US central bank’s action kept a lid on investors. Additionally, the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s comment that the US-China trade deal is 90% complete further strengthens the investor confidence of the much-awaited trade talk between the global powers at the sidelines of G20 meeting in Japan. The global barometer for risk sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yields, recovered to 2.05% by the press time. Other than developments from G20, second-tier data from New Zealand line ANZ Activity Outlook and Business Confidence for the current month, followed by the US final gross domestic product (GDP) reading for Q1 2019 and pending home sales. The ANZ Business Confidence is expected to recover from -32.0 to -22.7 but Activity Outlook might soften to 7.8% from 8.5% previous readouts. On the other hand, the US GDP may match an initial forecast of 3.1% annualized (QoQ) whereas pending home sales might recover to 1.0% from -1.5% earlier drop. Technical Analysis Having breached 0.6660/70 upside barrier, 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6711 is likely a landmark for the Kiwi buyers while a failure to hold the latest strength can reprint 0.6615 and 0.6580 on the chart.

In his latest interview with the Nikkei, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan changed his tone towards the US President Donald Trump.

In his latest interview with the Nikkei, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan changed his tone towards the US President Donald Trump while saying that he looks forward to have a talk with the President Trump during the G20 to eliminate the deadlock in their bilateral relations and also to strengthen cooperation. The Asian news also reports that Mr. Erdogan also said a visit by Mr. Trump to Turkey in July is being talked about. USD/TRY showed little reaction to the news while taking the rounds to 5.7733 during early morning in Asia on Thursday.

Last week, the S&P500 found resistance below 2,965.00 new all-time high. The market is retracing and trading at 5-day lows. S&P500 4-hour chart The st

The S&P500 is pulling back down after hitting a new all-time time.The market can continue to drop towards 2,880.00 and 2,960.00 support.  S&P500 daily chart Last week, the S&P500 found resistance below 2,965.00 new all-time high. The market is retracing and trading at 5-day lows. S&P500 4-hour chart The stock index is trading below its 50 SMA suggesting a correction down. The S&P500 is about to test the 2,910.00 support. If broken to the downside, the bears can reach 2,880.00 and 2,840.00 on the way down. Resistance is at the 2,940.00 and 2,960.00 levels.
Additional key levels  

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI above forecasts (72) in July: Actual (76)

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