Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, March 19, 2024

The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note during the early European session on Tuesday.

EUR/USD trades in negative territory near 1.0871 amid the cautious mood in Tuesday’s early European session. The pair keeps the bearish vibe below the key EMA; RSI indicator lies below the 50-midline. The first downside target is seen at 1.0852; the initial resistance level will emerge at 1.0882.The EUR/USD pair trades on a negative note during the early European session on Tuesday. The major pair moves in a narrow range between 1.0866 and 1.0876 as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. At the press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0871, down 0.01% on the day. 

Technically, EUR/USD maintains the bearish outlook unchanged as the major pair is below the key 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the four-hour chart. Furthermore, the downward momentum is further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which lies below the 50-midline, indicating that further downside looks favorable. 

The first downside target for the major pair is located near the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.0852. Further south, the next contention level is seen at the 1.0800 mark, representing the confluence of a low of February 22 and a psychological mark. A breach of this level will expose a low of February 20 at 1.0761, and finally a low of February 15 at 1.0725.

On the other hand, the initial resistance level will emerge at the 100-period EMA at 1.0882. The critical upside barrier to watch for EUR/USD is the 1.0900-1.0905 region, portraying the 50-period EMA, psychological figure, and a high of March 18. A bullish breakout above the latter will see a rally to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 1.0926, followed by a high of March 14 at 1.0955.EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0871 Today Daily Change -0.0001 Today Daily Change % -0.01 Today daily open 1.0872   Trends Daily SMA20 1.087 Daily SMA50 1.085 Daily SMA100 1.0861 Daily SMA200 1.0839   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0906 Previous Daily Low 1.0866 Previous Weekly High 1.0964 Previous Weekly Low 1.0873 Previous Monthly High 1.0898 Previous Monthly Low 1.0695 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0881 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0891 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0857 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0841 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0817 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0897 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0922 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0937      

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and revers a part of the previous day's strong gains to the $82.45 area, or the highest level since early November.

WTI retreats from a fresh YTD peak touched on Tuesday, though the downside seems limited.The prospects of rising supply from Russia prompt some profit-taking after the recent run-up.Concerns about tightening global supply should act as a tailwind and help limit deeper losses.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices edge lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and revers a part of the previous day's strong gains to the $82.45 area, or the highest level since early November. The commodity currently trades around the $82.00/barrel mark, though the downside seems limited in the wake of worries about tightening supply. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries over the last week could lead to higher crude oil exports from Russia. This, in turn, prompts bullish traders to take some profits off the table after the recent strong run-up witnessed over the past week or so and slightly overstretched conditions on short-term charts. Apart from this, sustained US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by bets that the Federal Reserve (Fe) will stick to its higher-for-longer interest rates narrative to bring down inflation, exerts downward pressure on the commodity. Furthermore, growing concerns about a global economic slowdown, which could dent fuel demand, turn out to be another factor weighing on Crude Oil prices. Meanwhile, lower crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, along with disruptions caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, could act as a tailwind for the black liquid and help limit the corrective slide. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the commodity has topped out in the near term and positioning for deeper losses. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 81.99 Today Daily Change -0.20 Today Daily Change % -0.24 Today daily open 82.19   Trends Daily SMA20 78.48 Daily SMA50 76.35 Daily SMA100 75.53 Daily SMA200 78.19   Levels Previous Daily High 82.46 Previous Daily Low 80.54 Previous Weekly High 81.05 Previous Weekly Low 76.5 Previous Monthly High 79.27 Previous Monthly Low 71.46 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 81.73 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 81.28 Daily Pivot Point S1 81 Daily Pivot Point S2 79.81 Daily Pivot Point S3 79.08 Daily Pivot Point R1 82.92 Daily Pivot Point R2 83.65 Daily Pivot Point R3 84.84    

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking on the policy outlook at a press conference following the announcement of the March monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is speaking on the policy outlook at a press conference following the announcement of the March monetary policy decision on Tuesday. Bullock is responding to questions from the media, as part of a new reporting format for the central bank. Key quotes We are making progress in fight against inflation. Recent data suggest we are on right track. Keeping keen eye on employment numbers. Risks to outlook are finely balanced. developing story .... Market reactionAUD/USD is holding lower ground near 0.6530 on the above comments, down 0.31% on the day.

Japan Capacity Utilization: -7.9% (January) vs previous -0.1%

Japan Industrial Production (YoY): -1.5% (January)

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -6.7%, above forecasts (-7.5%) in January

The EUR/JPY cross gains traction above the mid-162.00s during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday.

EUR/JPY holds positive ground around 162.77 after the BoJ rate decision. BoJ decided to end a negative interest rate era that began in 2016, in line with market expectations.ECB’s de Cos said the central bank may start cutting rates in June if inflation in the eurozone continues to ease.Investors will focus on the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey on Tuesday.The EUR/JPY cross gains traction above the mid-162.00s during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The cross drifts higher after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to end a negative interest rate era that began in 2016, in line with market expectations. At press time, EUR/JPY is trading at 162.77, adding 0.37% on the day. 

After the two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, the BoJ decided to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007. The decision was in line with market expectations. The BoJ policy statement showed that, given the current outlook for economic activity and prices, the BoJ anticipates accommodative financial conditions to be maintained for the time being. In response to the interest rate decision, the Japanese Yen attracts some sellers as the hawkish policy was widely priced in by the markets.

The European Central Bank (ECB) held the interest rate steady at its March meeting. However, the ECB policymakers signaled progress in easing inflation and started discussions about the timeline of the rate cut. The ECB Pablo Hernandez de Cos said that the central bank may start lowering interest rates in June if inflation in the eurozone continues to cool down. The ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot penciled in June for a first-rate cut and expects three rate cuts this year.

Moving on, market players will focus on the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey, due later on Tuesday. Later this week, the German Producer Price Index (PPI) and the ECB's Lagarde speech will be in focus on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Eurozone HCOB PMI data for March will be released. These events could give a clear direction to the EUR/JPY cross.  EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 162.9 Today Daily Change 0.72 Today Daily Change % 0.44 Today daily open 162.18   Trends Daily SMA20 162.33 Daily SMA50 161.14 Daily SMA100 160.22 Daily SMA200 158.69   Levels Previous Daily High 162.69 Previous Daily Low 161.95 Previous Weekly High 162.41 Previous Weekly Low 160.22 Previous Monthly High 163.72 Previous Monthly Low 158.08 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 162.23 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 162.41 Daily Pivot Point S1 161.86 Daily Pivot Point S2 161.53 Daily Pivot Point S3 161.12 Daily Pivot Point R1 162.59 Daily Pivot Point R2 163.01 Daily Pivot Point R3 163.33    

GBP/JPY has rebounded from intraday losses to extend its winning streak, which commenced on March 12.

GBP/JPY extends its winning streak despite hawkish BoJ.BoJ board members decided to lift the interest rate to 0% from -0.1%.Traders await consumer and producer price data from the United Kingdom.GBP/JPY has rebounded from intraday losses to extend its winning streak, which commenced on March 12. The pair trades higher around 190.30 during Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members opted to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007. This decision marks the end of a negative interest rate era. It aligns with market expectations. The much stronger-than-expected pay hikes by major Japanese firms have already laid the groundwork for the BoJ to shift away from the decade-long stimulus measures. In the United Kingdom (UK), inflation is showing signs of moderation, yet the Bank of England (BoE) maintains a cautious stance until Consumer Prices return to the 2% target. It is expected that the BoE will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% during Thursday's meeting. Traders are eagerly awaiting consumer and producer price data scheduled for release on Wednesday. Due to softer Consumer Inflation Expectations on Friday, which increased by 3.0% but slightly lower than the previous uptick of 3.3%, market speculation arose regarding a potential Bank of England (BoE) rate cut. Investors anticipate the BoE to commence rate cuts in August, with one or two additional cuts by year-end. Such sentiment could have weakened the Pound Sterling (GBP) and undermined the GBP/JPY cross. GBP/JPY Overview Today last price 190.57 Today Daily Change 0.71 Today Daily Change % 0.37 Today daily open 189.86   Trends Daily SMA20 189.9 Daily SMA50 188.4 Daily SMA100 186.17 Daily SMA200 184.37   Levels Previous Daily High 190.16 Previous Daily Low 189.54 Previous Weekly High 190.03 Previous Weekly Low 187.96 Previous Monthly High 191.33 Previous Monthly Low 185.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 189.92 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 189.78 Daily Pivot Point S1 189.55 Daily Pivot Point S2 189.23 Daily Pivot Point S3 188.93 Daily Pivot Point R1 190.17 Daily Pivot Point R2 190.47 Daily Pivot Point R3 190.78    

The AUD/JPY cross continues with its struggle to find acceptance above the 98.00 mark and surrenders Asian session gains to over a one-week high.

AUD/JPY retreats from over a one-week high after the RBA and the BoJ announced their decisions.The RBA decided to keep the benchmark rates unchanged for the third straight meeting in March.The BoJ ends the negative interest rates era and also scraps the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy.The AUD/JPY cross continues with its struggle to find acceptance above the 98.00 mark and surrenders Asian session gains to over a one-week high. Spot prices drop to a fresh daily low after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced their policy decisions, albeit manage to attract fresh buyers in the vicinity of mid-97.00s. As was unanimously expected, the Australian central bank decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at the end of the March policy meeting. The Australian Dollar (AUD), however, started losing traction in the absence of any fresh hawkish signals, though signs of improving relations between Australia and China – the former's biggest trading partner – help limit further losses. Meanwhile, the BoJ announced lifting the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007, ending the negative interest rate era that began in 2016. The BoJ also scrapped its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy at the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy meeting. The decision, however, was broadly in line with the market expectations and did little to influence the JPY. Investors now look forward to the post-meeting press conference, where comments by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will play a key role in influencing the JPY price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the AUD/JPY cross. The mixed fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move. AUD/JPY Overview Today last price 97.91 Today Daily Change 0.07 Today Daily Change % 0.07 Today daily open 97.84   Trends Daily SMA20 97.96 Daily SMA50 97.5 Daily SMA100 97.17 Daily SMA200 96.03   Levels Previous Daily High 98.1 Previous Daily Low 97.64 Previous Weekly High 97.97 Previous Weekly Low 96.9 Previous Monthly High 99.06 Previous Monthly Low 95.5 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 97.93 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 97.82 Daily Pivot Point S1 97.62 Daily Pivot Point S2 97.41 Daily Pivot Point S3 97.17 Daily Pivot Point R1 98.08 Daily Pivot Point R2 98.32 Daily Pivot Point R3 98.53    

The AUD/NZD cross holds below the 1.0800 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.

AUD/NZD attracts some sellers to 1.0770 after the RBA rate decision on Tuesday. The RBA held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% after its March meeting on Tuesday, as widely expected. The less hawkish stance of the RBNZ weighs on the Kiwi. New Zealand’s Westpac Consumer Survey Q1 will be due on Wednesday. The AUD/NZD cross holds below the 1.0800 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The cross edges lower following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision. The Australian central bank decided to leave the interest rate unchanged on Tuesday. Traders will take more cues from the RBA press conference. AUD/NZD currently trades around 1.0770, losing 0.07% on the day. 

On Tuesday, the RBA held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at a 12-year high of 4.35% for the third meeting in a row after its March monetary policy meeting. The markets will focus on the fresh catalysts offered by the RBA on the timing and the scope of a policy pivot. The hawkish remarks from the central bank might lift the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). 

On the Kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to keep the policy rate steady at 5.50% for the fifth meeting in a row in February. However, the RBNZ tones down its hawkish stance and reduces the risk of further tightening. The central bank lowered its forecast cash rate peak to 5.6% from a previous projection of 5.7%. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and acts as a tailwind for the AUD/NZD cross. 

New Zealand’s Westpac Consumer Survey for the first quarter (Q1) will be due on Wednesday, followed by the Current Account. On Thursday, traders will closely monitor the New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 and the Australian Judo Bank PMI for March.  AUD/NZD Overview Today last price 1.0792 Today Daily Change 0.0013 Today Daily Change % 0.12 Today daily open 1.0779   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0683 Daily SMA50 1.0706 Daily SMA100 1.0752 Daily SMA200 1.0789   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0787 Previous Daily Low 1.0768 Previous Weekly High 1.0788 Previous Weekly Low 1.07 Previous Monthly High 1.0746 Previous Monthly Low 1.057 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0775 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.078 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.077 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.076 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0752 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0788 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0796 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0806  
 

Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (0%)

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (4.35%)

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,145 region, or over a one-week low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price oscillates in a range and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces.Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD cap the upside.Geopolitical risks lend some support to the XAU/USD ahead of the key FOMC meeting.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,145 region, or over a one-week low and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Tuesday. The robust US consumer and producer inflation figures released last week fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could modify its forward guidance to two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 instead of the three projected previously. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which underpin the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. The markets, however, are still anticipating that the Fed will begin its rate-cutting cycle as early as the June policy meeting. This, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, might continue to provide a floor to the Gold price and help limit the downside. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting this Tuesday. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday and investors will look for fresh cues about the rate-cut path, which will play a key role in driving the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price struggles to lure buyers amid mixed fundamental cues, ahead of FOMC The stronger US inflation data fuelled speculations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated, which, in turn, fails to assist the non-yielding Gold price to build on Monday's bounce from over a one-week low. Markets are now pricing in less than three 25 basis point rate cuts this year and about a 51% chance that the Fed will begin the rate-cutting cycle at the June meeting, down sharply from expectations at the start of the year.   Expectations that the Fed will stick to the higher-for-longer interest rates narrative push the yield on benchmark 10-year US government bond to a three-week high, underpinning the US Dollar and capping the commodity. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, along with the unrest in the Middle East, might continue to offer some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and help limit deeper losses ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting starting today. Ukraine stepped up drone strikes on Russian oil refineries last week, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed plans to push into Gaza's Rafah enclave, contributing to a climate of uncertainty. The focus, meanwhile, will be on whether Fed policymakers change their projections, or dot plots, for the economy and rate cuts for this year and the next two, which will determine the near-term trajectory for the XAU/USD. Technical Analysis: Gold price could slide further once the $2,150 support is broken decisively From a technical perspective, the recent pullback from the record peak stalled near the $2,145-2,144 support zone, which should now act as a key pivotal point for the Gold price. A convincing break below will expose the next relevant support near the $2,128-2,127 zone before the XAU/USD extends the corrective decline further towards the $2,100 round figure. On the flip side, the $2,175-2,176 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong barrier, which if cleared should allow the Gold price to challenge the record peak, around the $2,195 area touched last week. Some follow-through buying beyond the $2,200 mark will set the stage for the resumption of the uptrend witnessed since the beginning of this month.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

USD/CAD continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive session, trading near the significant level of 1.3540.

USD/CAD exhibits sideways movement with a positive bias to extend gains.Fed could uphold its elevated interest rates to curb inflationary pressures.Canadian Consumer Prices are expected to show an increase in February.USD/CAD continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive session, trading near the significant level of 1.3540. The US Dollar (USD) advances, propelled by higher US Treasury yields. Bond markets are facing selling pressure as additional signs of resilience in the United States (US) economy emerge, prompting traders to revise their expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March stands at 1.0%, and 8.7% for May. The likelihood of rate cuts in June and July is lower, at 55.1% and 73.7%, respectively.The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward trajectory, with 2-year and 10-year US yields at 4.73% and 4.32%, respectively. Investors are eagerly awaiting the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), expected to be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is anticipated to uphold its elevated interest rates in response to recent inflationary pressures. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) might have found support from the surge in Crude oil prices, considering Canada's status as the largest oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovers around $82.10 per barrel, nearing its highest levels since early November, bolstered by ongoing supply-side worries. On Monday, the Canadian stock market closed slightly lower as investors awaited Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Tuesday. There are expectations for an uptick in Canadian consumer prices. USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3539 Today Daily Change 0.0005 Today Daily Change % 0.04 Today daily open 1.3534   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3523 Daily SMA50 1.3486 Daily SMA100 1.3514 Daily SMA200 1.3481   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3552 Previous Daily Low 1.3521 Previous Weekly High 1.3552 Previous Weekly Low 1.3459 Previous Monthly High 1.3606 Previous Monthly Low 1.3366 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3533 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.354 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3519 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3505 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3489 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.355 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3566 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3581    

Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Tuesday on US Dollar (USD) purchases by state-run banks.

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Looking ahead, the US February Building Permits and Housing Starts are due on Tuesday. Investors will closely watch the US Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday and take more cues about the future trajectory of interest rates from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference. On Thursday, India’s S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI will be released. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee remains vulnerable amid global uncertaintiesForeign investors purchased bonds worth about 100 billion Rupees ($1.21 billion) on a net basis in March, bringing the total net purchase to more than 375 billion Rupees in the first two months of 2024. Foreign portfolio investors increased their holdings of Indian government bonds by roughly 50% since the index inclusion news less than six months ago. India’s foreign exchange climbed from $6.55 billion to $625.63 billion in just two years, while Indian gold reserves rose from $569 million in 2021 to $48.4 billion this week in March 2024, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).   The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the US central bank might cut its benchmark interest rate later this year, even though the continued progress on lowering inflation to the target “is not assured.” Investors have priced in nearly 73% odds that the Fed will cut rates in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tools.Technical Analysis: Indian Rupee remains confined in a longer-term band between 82.60 and 83.15Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. USD/INR sticks to the range bound theme within a multi-month-old descending trend channel around 82.60–83.15 since December 8, 2023. 

From a technical perspective, the bearish outlook of USD/INR remains intact in the near term as the pair is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns above the 50.0 midline, indicating that further upside cannot be ruled out. 

The first upside barrier will emerge near the 100-day EMA and a psychological mark at 83.00. Further strength could draw in USD/INR bulls and inspire another upswing to the upper boundary of the descending trend channel near 83.15. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to 83.35 (high of January 2), followed by the 84.00 round figure. 

On the flip side, the initial support level for USD/INR is seen near a low of March 14 at 82.80. The key contention level is located at the lower limit of the descending trend channel at 82.60. Any follow-through selling could extend the pair’s downtrend to 82.45 (low of August 23), en route to 82.25 (low of June 1).US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.01% 0.01% 0.03% -0.02% 0.08% 0.07% 0.08%EUR0.00%   0.01% 0.02% -0.02% 0.10% 0.07% 0.09%GBP-0.01% -0.02%   0.02% -0.03% 0.07% 0.05% 0.07%CAD-0.03% -0.03% 0.00%   -0.05% 0.07% 0.04% 0.06%AUD0.02% 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%   0.12% 0.09% 0.10%JPY-0.10% -0.06% -0.09% -0.08% -0.10%   0.01% 0.00%NZD-0.06% -0.08% -0.06% -0.04% -0.09% 0.03%   0.01%CHF-0.09% -0.10% -0.08% -0.06% -0.11% 0.00% -0.02%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the sixth straight day on Tuesday and weakens to a nearly two-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen continues losing ground amid reduced bets for a BoJ policy pivot.Hawkish Fed expectations underpin the USD and further lend support to USD/JPY.Traders now look to the BoJ decision for fresh cues ahead of the FOMC meeting.The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the sixth straight day on Tuesday and weakens to a nearly two-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session. Growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will wait until April to exit the negative interest rate policy and the Yield Curve Control (YCC) turns out to be a key factor undermining the JPY. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, bolstered by reduced bets for steep interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), lifts the USD/JPY pair closer to mid-149.00s. Meanwhile, the much-stronger-than-expected pay hikes by major Japanese firms already seem to have set the stage for the BoJ to pivot away from the decade-long stimulus measures, which should act as a tailwind for the JPY. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risks. The BoJ is scheduled to announce its highly-anticipated decision in a short while from now, which will be followed by the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting later today. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen remains depressed amid bets that the BoJ will not exit its ultra-easy policy on Tuesday The Japanese Yen languishes near its lowest level in over a week amid the Bank of Japan policy uncertainty, though expectations that the central bank will eventually pivot away from its ultra-easy policy settings help limit losses. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda offered a slightly bleaker assessment of the economy last week and said that policymakers will debate whether the outlook is bright enough to phase out the decade-long massive monetary stimulus. Japan's largest union group said that the biggest companies agreed to raise wages by the heftiest in 33 years, reaffirming bets that the BoJ will soon exit the negative interest rates regime and the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that this year's wage negotiations have yielded record-high wage growth so far and that the government will deploy various policies so that positive momentum in wages continues. The hotter-than-expected US producer and consumer price data released last week forced investors to trim their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve, which continues to lend support to the US Dollar. Markets are now pricing in less than three 25 basis points rate cuts in 2024 and about a 51% chance that the Fed will begin the rate-cutting cycle at the June policy meeting, down sharply from expectations at the start of the year.   Bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer lift the yield on benchmark 10-year US government bonds to a three-week high, which adds to the USD strength and supports prospects for further move up for the USD/JPY pair. Traders, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets ahead of the highly-anticipated BoJ policy decision on Tuesday, which will be followed by the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY seems poised to appreciate further, bulls might now aim to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March downfall and seems poised to climb further. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 149.75-149.80 horizontal barrier, en route to the 150.00 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering move towards the 150.65-150.70 region before bulls aim to retest the YTD peak, around the 151.00 mark touched on February 13. On the flip side, the 149.00 round-figure mark now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. Any further slide is more likely to attract some dip-buying and remain limited near the 148.30 region. This is followed by the 148.00 round figure, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the downfall towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the 147.65 region. A convincing break below might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and drag spot prices further towards the 147.00 mark en route to the monthly swing low, around the 146.50-146.45 region.   Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers around the key level of 0.6550 amid subdued trading activity as market participants exercise caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday.

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Investors will closely monitor RBA Governor Michele Bullock's press conference for further insights. The central bank is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates at their current levels. The Australian equity market, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index, has edged higher after starting the session positively, driven by gains in the energy and real estate sectors. This upward movement in the stock market may provide support for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Australia's economy expanded less than anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2023, leading to speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could initiate rate cuts later this year.The US Dollar Index (DXY) strives to extend its gains for the fourth consecutive session, bolstered by an uptick in US Treasury yields. Bond markets have experienced a sell-off following additional evidence of resilience in the United States (US) economy, compelling traders to adjust their expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year. Investors are eagerly awaiting interest rate decisions from both the People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which are anticipated to be announced on Wednesday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar remains tepid on market caution The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index, which is published weekly, stands at 81.7, compared to the previous week's reading of 82.2. According to Bloomberg, Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain its cash rate at 4.35% at Tuesday's meeting. ANZ Bank analysts anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain a "mild tightening bias," with no adjustment to interest rates. China's Retail Sales (YoY) increased by 5.5% in February, against the expected 5.2% and 7.4% prior. Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) rose by 7.0%, compared to the market expectation of a 5.0% figure in February and 6.8% previous reading. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in March stands at 1.0% and 8.7% for May. The likelihood of a rate cut in June and July is lower, at 55.1% and 73.7%, respectively. The preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March decreased to 76.5, from the previous reading of 76.9. This decline comes in contrast to expectations of it remaining unchanged. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve released Industrial Production (MoM), which increased by 0.1% in February, against the expected reading of flat 0.0% and from the previous decline of 0.5%. The US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) remained consistent with the rise of 2.0% year-over-year in February, maintaining its position above the 1.9% expected. The monthly report showed an increase of 0.3% against 0.5% prior, exceeding the expected 0.2% reading. US PPI (YoY) increased by 1.6% in February, surpassing the expected 1.1% and 1.0% prior. PPI (MoM) rose by 0.6% above the market expectation and the previous increase of 0.3%. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar maintains position near the major level at 0.6550 The Australian Dollar remains close to the significant threshold of 0.6550 On Tuesday. A breach below this level might prompt downward momentum for the AUD/USD pair, with additional support anticipated around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6528, and thereafter at the psychological support level of 0.6500. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could encounter resistance near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6571, followed by the psychological hurdle at 0.6600. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.03% 0.06% 0.08% 0.11% 0.12% 0.17% 0.11%EUR-0.03%   0.02% 0.04% 0.08% 0.09% 0.12% 0.08%GBP-0.04% -0.01%   0.02% 0.06% 0.06% 0.09% 0.05%CAD-0.08% -0.04% 0.00%   0.03% 0.05% 0.09% 0.04%AUD-0.09% -0.08% -0.06% -0.04%   0.02% 0.08% -0.02%JPY-0.13% -0.07% -0.07% -0.06% 0.01%   0.06% 0.00%NZD-0.14% -0.11% -0.09% -0.06% -0.03% -0.01%   -0.05%CHF-0.10% -0.07% -0.05% -0.03% 0.01% 0.02% 0.07%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during his visit to New Zealand on Tuesday, said that “China is ready to work with New Zealand to implement an upgraded version of the China-New Zealand free trade agreement.” Additional quotes Two sides should launch negotiations on negative list of service trade as soon as possible, so as to push bilateral cooperation to a new level.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during his visit to New Zealand on Tuesday, said that “China is ready to work with New Zealand to implement an upgraded version of the China-New Zealand free trade agreement.” Additional quotes Two sides should launch negotiations on negative list of service trade as soon as possible, so as to push bilateral cooperation to a new level. China-New Zealand relations maintain a leading position among China's relations with developed countries. Market reaction Despite the upbeat headlines, NZD/USD is losing 0.17% on the day to trade at 0.6071, as of writing.

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0985 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0943 and 7.2056 Reuters estimates.

On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0985 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0943 and 7.2056 Reuters estimates.

The EUR/USD pair edges lower to multi-day lows around 1.0870 on the firmer US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

EUR/USD remains on the defensive near 1.0872 amid renewed USD demand. The Fed is anticipated to hold benchmark interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%–5.50% at its March meeting.ECB policymakers signaled progress in easing inflation and began discussions about the rate cut.The Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting will be a closely watched event. The EUR/USD pair edges lower to multi-day lows around 1.0870 on the firmer US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be in the spotlight, with no change in rates expected. Meanwhile, the cautious mood in the market might lift the Greenback against the Euro (EUR). The major pair currently trades around 1.0872, unchanged for the day. 

The recent US economic data showed inflation in the US economy remains elevated, and this pushed out market expectations for the first rate cut in June. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said two weeks ago that the central bank is not far from the confidence it needs to cut rates, while some Fed officials expect the first rate cut could happen later this year or during the summer.

The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is anticipated to hold benchmark interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%–5.50% at its March meeting. Investors have priced in a nearly 73% chance that the Fed will cut rates in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tools.

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep borrowing costs at a record high at its March meeting. Nonetheless, the central bank policymakers signaled progress in easing inflation and began discussions about the rate cut. The ECB Governing Council member, Pablo Hernandez de Kos, said that the central bank may start lowering interest rates in June if inflation in the eurozone continues to decline. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Mario Centeno stated that cutting borrowing costs could help prevent a euro area recession. 

Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot penciled in June for a first-rate cut and expects three rate cuts this year, while ECB President Christine Lagarde said that June is the earliest it is likely to cut interest rates after the ECB lowered its forecasts for inflation and estimated it will reach its 2% target in 2025. 

Looking ahead, market players will keep an eye on the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey on Tuesday. Also, the US Building Permits and Housing Starts will be released later in the day. The attention will shift to the Fed interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday. Traders will take cues from this event and find trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.   EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0874 Today Daily Change 0.0002 Today Daily Change % 0.02 Today daily open 1.0872   Trends Daily SMA20 1.087 Daily SMA50 1.085 Daily SMA100 1.0861 Daily SMA200 1.0839   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0906 Previous Daily Low 1.0866 Previous Weekly High 1.0964 Previous Weekly Low 1.0873 Previous Monthly High 1.0898 Previous Monthly Low 1.0695 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0881 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0891 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0857 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0841 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0817 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0897 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0922 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0937    

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it depends on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to decide the details of monetary policy.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it depends on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to decide the details of monetary policy. Suzuki further stated that he saw positive economic signs, including wage growth and corporate spending.Key quotes“Won't comment on any BOJ policy steps to be taken.”

“It’s up to the Bank of Japan to decide specifics of monetary policy.”

“This year's wage negotiations yielding record-high wage growth so far.”

“We are clearly seeing good signs in the economy such as robust corporate spending appetite.”

“The government will deploy various policies so that positive momentum in wages continues.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.02% lower on the day at 149.13.   Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.  

The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

GBP/USD remains on the defensive near 1.2726 amid the stronger USD and risk-off mood.Fed is likely to maintain its monetary policy for a fifth straight time at its March meeting.BoE is expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday, with the expectation of cutting rates in August.The Fed and Bank of England interest rate decisions will be the highlights of this week.The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The uptick in the US Dollar (USD) above 103.50 and higher US yields provide some support to the major pair. Markets turn cautious ahead of the central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions. At press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2726, down 0.02% on the day.

The Fed is anticipated to keep its interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight time at its March meeting on Wednesday and signal that they still need further evidence that inflation to return sustainably to its 2% target. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the US central bank might cut its benchmark interest rate later this year, even though continued progress on lowering inflation to the target “is not assured.”

Traders will also closely monitor press conference, which is unlikely to show a significant shift. However, there is still a possibility that policymakers might reduce the number of rate cuts they anticipate seeing this year to two from the earlier three.

On the other hand, UK inflation is moderating, but the BoE remains cautious in its approach until the CPI returns to the 2% target. The BoE is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday. Investors expect the UK central bank to start cutting rates in August, with one or two further cuts by the end of the year.

Later on Tuesday, the US Building Permits, and Housing Starts are due in the US docket. All eyes will be on the Fed monetary policy meeting and the press conference on Wednesday. Also, the Fed’s officials will update their quarterly economic projections. On the UK docket, the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday will be in the spotlight. Along with the rate decision, BoE policymakers might offer clues about inflation, economic growth, and the labour market outlook. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2726 Today Daily Change -0.0010 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 1.2736   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2709 Daily SMA50 1.2686 Daily SMA100 1.2614 Daily SMA200 1.2592   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2759 Previous Daily Low 1.2725 Previous Weekly High 1.2865 Previous Weekly Low 1.2725 Previous Monthly High 1.2773 Previous Monthly Low 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2738 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2746 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2721 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2706 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2687 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2754 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2773 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2788    

The Australian Dollar begins the Asian session, clocking minuscule losses of 0.02% against the US Dollar as market participants prepare for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision.

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On Monday, the AUD/USD was virtually flat, though at the time of writing, it trades at 0.6559, down 0.01%. Upbeat sentiment could shift amidst major central bank decisions Wall Street finished Monday’s session in the green. US Treasury yields edged higher as investors await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, with the 10-year note benchmark up at 4.328%. Consequently, the Greenback advances 0.13%, as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 103.58. On Monday, the US economic docket was light, with the release of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Market Index for February, which improved the most since July 2023, rising by 51, up from 48 in February. The NAHG Chairman Carl Harris noted “Buyer demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and into the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to fall later this year.” Aside from this, the day's main theme is the RBA’s decision. Market players estimate the central bank would keep rates unchanged thought, there are different opinions amongst economists. Some expect the RBA will lower rates in November, while others estimate the first cut will be in September. Given the backdrop of the Aussie economy printing mixed figures on inflation, and growth slowed to 1.5% in Q4 2023 from 2.1%, that has opened the door for easing policy. Testifying before the Australian Parliament last month, Bullock said that “inflation is being persistent, particularly in services. But it is coming down.” ANZ Bank analysts estimate the RBA would keep a “mild tightening bias, with no change in rates. While the January labor force survey came in weak, we think the RBA (like us) is expecting payback in the February data.” AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook If the RBA surprises the markets with a dovish tilt, the AUD/USD can drop further below the 200-day moving average (DMA at 0.6557, exposing the 0.6500 mark. Further losses are seen at the March 5 low of 0.6477, followed by the February 13 swing low of 0.6442. On the other hand, the pair could aim higher if the RBA sticks to a hawkish message and might recoup the 0.6600 mark. The next resistance level is seen at January’s 5 cycle low, which turned resistance at 0.6640.  RBA FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of Australia and how does it influence the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening. How does inflation data impact the value of the Australian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Australian Dollar? Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Australian Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.  

In Monday's trading, NZD/USD remained largely unchanged around 0.6085 while the pair showed ongoing sell-off pressure.

The daily chart reveals a bearish bias, with RSI transitioning to negative territories and rising red bars in the MACD.The hourly chart demonstrates a contrary perspective flashing signals on a potential shift to the upside.If bears want to confirm a bearish outlook, they must conquer the 200-day SMA.In Monday's trading, NZD/USD remained largely unchanged around 0.6085 while the pair showed ongoing sell-off pressure. However, subtle hints of an imminent near-term reversal are beginning to show up on the hourly chart as bears may step out to consolidate their movements. The continuous decline of the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) from positive to negative territories demonstrates the prevailing sell-side pressure. The recent reading of the RSI indicates ongoing negative conditions, further substantiated by a sequence of rising red bars in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). NZD/USD daily chart Moving on to the hourly chart, the NZD/USD pair persists in its bearish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects similar negative conditions as observed on the daily chart, albeit, the index seems to have flattened. In addition, a shift in momentum can be discerned with the emergence of green bars in the MACD histogram. These indicate positive momentum in the last trading hours. NZD/USD hourly chart Given the outlooks on the daily and hourly chart, after the sellers pierced through the 20 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the last hope for the pair is the 200-day average which presents strong support. In case the buyers fail to defend it, the overall trend will turn bearish.   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6086 Today Daily Change 0.0001 Today Daily Change % 0.02 Today daily open 0.6085   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6144 Daily SMA50 0.6136 Daily SMA100 0.6125 Daily SMA200 0.608   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6135 Previous Daily Low 0.608 Previous Weekly High 0.6191 Previous Weekly Low 0.608 Previous Monthly High 0.6219 Previous Monthly Low 0.6037 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6101 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6114 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6065 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6045 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.601 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6119 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6154 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6174    

Silver's price dropped toward $25.00 a troy ounce on Monday as US Treasury bond yields rose ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Silver price dips affected by an uptick in US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar ahead of the Fed's decision.'Bearish harami' pattern suggests potential declines if support breaks.Staying above $25.00 may boost bullish momentum, eyeing $26.00 resistance.Silver's price dropped toward $25.00 a troy ounce on Monday as US Treasury bond yields rose ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield advance underpins the Greenback, a headwind for the precious metal. Therefore, XAG/USD trades at around $25.03, down by 0.57% at the time of writing. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook The grey metal daily chart formed a ‘bearish harami’ candlestick chart pattern that suggests prices might edge to the downside, though sellers need to extend Silver’s losses beneath the March 15 swing low of $24.79. It should be said that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator was barren from entering overbought conditions, keeping its bullish bias intact. However, the RSI edges lower, and if XAG/USD falls below $25.00, that might open the door to challenge December’s 22 high turned support at $24.60. Further downside is seen at $24.00. On the other hand, if buyers hold XAG/USD spot price above $25.00, that could open the door to test the current year-to-date (YTD) high of $25.44 ahead of $26.00. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 25.04 Today Daily Change -0.14 Today Daily Change % -0.56 Today daily open 25.18   Trends Daily SMA20 23.6 Daily SMA50 23.09 Daily SMA100 23.38 Daily SMA200 23.31   Levels Previous Daily High 25.45 Previous Daily Low 24.8 Previous Weekly High 25.45 Previous Weekly Low 24.01 Previous Monthly High 23.5 Previous Monthly Low 21.93 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 25.2 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 25.05 Daily Pivot Point S1 24.84 Daily Pivot Point S2 24.5 Daily Pivot Point S3 24.19 Daily Pivot Point R1 25.49 Daily Pivot Point R2 25.79 Daily Pivot Point R3 26.13    

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, pretty much at the same time that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will do the same.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan could deliver the first rate hike since 2007.Japanese Unions clocked the largest wage increase in over three decades.BoJ’s Governor Kazuo Ueda linked monetary tightening with higher wages.USD/JPY could collapse towards 146.48 on a hawkish decision. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, pretty much at the same time that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will do the same. Central banks stand out this week, which will also include the decisions of the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). The BoJ is a particular case, as it is the only central bank maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy. Interest rates in Japan have been steady at -0.1% since 2016, with policymakers claiming lagging wage increases and doubts about sustainable healthy inflation require continued caution. To keep rates depressed, the BoJ also introduced the Yield Curve Control (YCC) in September 2016, as inflation remained stubbornly below target.  Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision: Why this time could be different Most major central banks embarked on reversing their monetary policy in mid-2022 when inflation soared to multi-decade highs in the coronavirus pandemic aftermath. Interest rates were pushed to record levels, and price pressures receded, although they are still above target. And yet again, central banks are changing course. Market participants expect central banks to start trimming interest rates in the upcoming months, although at a more cautious pace than previously anticipated. The BoJ’s decision to keep rates on hold was largely linked to depressed wages. However, news over the weekend showed that Japan’s largest group for unions, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, or Rengo, announced an annual wage increase of 5.28%, the largest raise in over thirty years. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in the last few weeks that the end of negative rates would depend on such negotiations, and the latest announcement is fueling bets the BoJ will finally leave negative rates. Meanwhile, core inflation in Japan fell for a third consecutive month in January to its lowest level in almost two years. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, rose at a slower pace of 2%, matching the central bank’s target. At the same time, the Tokyo CPI rose 2.6% YoY from 1.8% in January, while the core CPI climbed 2.5%, in line with expectations. Such figures could spur concerns about another hold from BoJ, although inflation in Japan is expected to have accelerated in February as the effects of government fuel subsidies faded. The country will report February CPI next Friday, March 22,  and the core annual CPI is foreseen at 2.8%.  When will the BoJ announce its interest rate decision, and how could it affect USD/JPY? The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Tuesday at around 3:00 GMT. However, it is worth reminding that Japanese policymakers do not have a set time like their counterparts, and the announcement could come earlier or later than that.  The Nikkei newspaper reported on Saturday that “The BoJ began coordinating both within and outside the bank Friday on ending its negative interest rate policy, which was adopted in February 2016. The leading plan is to raise the policy rate, currently at negative 0.1%, by more than 0.1 point to guide short-term interest to the 0%-0.1% range.” Based on this news, the most optimistic bets aim for a rate hike in the upcoming meeting, up to 0.00%—0.10%, the first rate hike in seventeen years. Policymakers are also expected to end the YCC, although the central bank will need to continue buying bonds. However, the BoJ is not notorious for its boldness. A more conservative outlook suggests the BoJ will pave the way for a rate hike in April while deciding on a gradual ending to the YCC.  One more factor is whether the central bank anticipates additional rate hikes in the months to come. Policymakers may well abandon the ultra-loose policy next Tuesday but cool down hopes for the beginning of a tightening cycle at the same time.  Generally speaking, a hawkish announcement tends to boost the local currency. That said, the market will need to assess the level of hawkishness, if any, of Japanese policymakers to translate it into Japanese Yen (JPY) strength. The USD/JPY pair heads into the announcement trading at around the 149.00 figure, not far from the multi-year high posted in October 2022 at 151.94. From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “Market participants seem unconvinced the BoJ will pull the trigger this time. The JPY was unable to gather momentum against the US Dollar, and in fact, the pair advanced for a fifth consecutive day. Sellers are aligned around the daily 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 149.35, the immediate resistance level. A dovish announcement could push the pair towards the 150.00 mark en route to the 150.60-150.80 price zone.” Bednarik adds: “Financial markets will be caught off guard if the BoJ actually pulls the trigger. That could result in a massive decline in USD/JPY, initially targeting 148.35, the 100 SMA in the aforementioned daily chart. Once below the latter, the pair can reach the March low at 146.48.”   Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.   Economic Indicator Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY.Read more.Next release: 03/19/2024 03:00:00 GMTFrequency: IrregularSource: Bank of Japan
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