Forex News Timeline

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD has recovered after an early sell-off due to news of an escalation in the conflict in the Middle East. Israel purportedly launched drones at Iran in retaliation for its April 13 attack.EUR/USD is consolidating in a downtrend.  EUR/USD is trading in the lower 1.0600s at the time of writing, after recovering slightly from an early bout of weakness. News reports of an escalation in the Middle East conflict had prompted a flight to the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), with a resulting decline in EUR/USD.  Overnight, reports of explosions in the Iranian city of Isfahan, which houses a military barracks, according to Reuters, suggested Israel has retaliated against Iran for its April 13 drone attack. The escalation had a direct impact on markets, with demand for safe-havens assets – Gold, CHF, JPY and USD – ratcheting up.  EUR/USD, which measures the number of US Dollars that can be bought with one Euro, fell back down to 1.0610 on the news, close to the 1.0601 April 16 year-to-date (YTD) low. Since then the exchange rate has recovered a bit, and is currently exchanging hands in the 1.0630s.    EUR/USD pressured by ECB comments EUR/USD started Thursday bullishly after the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde stated “The game (of fighting inflation) is not over,” suggesting perhaps some doubt as to whether it was time to start cutting interest rates. Given the maintenance of higher interest rates is positive for a currency since it attracts greater inflows of foreign capital, the Euro (EUR) strengthened following her remarks.  EUR/USD reversed course after touching technical resistance just shy of 1.0700 and resumed its short-term downtrend as a roll-call of other ECB officials expressed the opposite view, i.e that cutting interest rates was necessary if not overdue.  The President of the Banque de France and ECB governing council member François Villeroy de Galhau, for example, stated that a cut to borrowing costs was due, and delaying could be detrimental to growth, placing the ECB “behind the curve”.  Vice-President of the ECB Luis de Guindos was more tempered, saying the central bank would reduce rates if the data evolved as expected. ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel said a June rate cut appeared increasingly likely, although certain inflation data remained higher than expected.  Fed members adopt increasingly hawkish line EUR/USD’s reversal lower on Thursday gained momentum after the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey’s Index Prices Paid component – a regional inflation metric – shot up unexpectedly to 23.00 (prior 3.7), suggesting price pressures remain alive and kicking.  Flat Initial Jobless Claims further reinforced the view that the US labor market is likely to continue to be a source of inflation.  Commentary from Federal Reserve rate-setters suggested a shift to an increasingly hawkish stance (meaning in favor of high interest rates for longer). Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said US inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2.0% target at a slower pace than many had anticipated, adding he’d be comfortable being patient, and that interest rate cuts are likely – but not until year end.  New York Fed President John Williams went further, saying he didn’t feel an urgency to cut interest rates and that monetary policy is in a good place. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD consolidates within a bear trend EUR/USD seems to be messing around in the gap between the YTD lows at 1.0601 and the resistance from the last major swing low in February at just shy of 1.0700.  The short and medium-term trends are bearish, suggesting more weakness will eventually come.   EUR/USD Daily ChartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited oversold conditions, indicating renewed potential for more downside.  A break below the 1.0601 April lows would post a lower low and give renewed confidence to bears. After that, the next concrete target is at 1.0446, the October 2023 low.  Resistance at around 1.0700 will need to be overcome for bulls to reappear. In the case of a really bullish move, the April 2 swing low at 1.0725 provides the next upside target followed by 1.0800, where a cluster of major Moving Averages coils. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

USD/JPY maintains its position around 154.50 after partially recovering its daily losses on Friday.Reuters reported that an Iranian official stated there is currently no immediate plan for retaliation against the Israeli airstrikes.The Greenback gained traction after Fed officials conveyed hawkish messages on Thursday.USD/JPY reverses its losses as a senior Iranian official reportedly stated that there is no immediate plan for retaliation against the Israeli missiles strike on Iran on Friday, as per a Reuters report. This has reduced the likelihood of escalating tensions in the Middle East. The pair holds steady around 154.50 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened as risk aversion sentiment spread across financial markets following ABC News' report of Israeli missiles striking a site in Iran. Additionally, the JPY received marginal support from the release of Japan's inflation data on Friday. Overall, the Yen's strength exerted pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 2.7% year-over-year, compared to a 2.8% rise in February, according to the latest data from the Japan Statistics Bureau. This index measures the price fluctuations of goods and services purchased by households. On Thursday, hawkish remarks from Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda supported the JPY. According to a Reuters report, Ueda mentioned in a press conference that the central bank might consider raising interest rates again if significant declines in the Yen substantially boost inflation. Meanwhile, on the US side, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials conveyed hawkish messages on Thursday, resulting in a surge in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD), which consequently limited the losses of the USD/JPY pair. Traders are anticipated to closely monitor upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the US economic outlook at the University of Miami, Florida. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A session at the Association for Business Journalists 2024 SABEW Annual Conference in Chicago. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 154.51 Today Daily Change -0.13 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 154.64   Trends Daily SMA20 152.39 Daily SMA50 150.77 Daily SMA100 148.08 Daily SMA200 147.58   Levels Previous Daily High 154.68 Previous Daily Low 153.95 Previous Weekly High 153.39 Previous Weekly Low 151.57 Previous Monthly High 151.97 Previous Monthly Low 146.48 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 154.4 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 154.23 Daily Pivot Point S1 154.17 Daily Pivot Point S2 153.7 Daily Pivot Point S3 153.44 Daily Pivot Point R1 154.9 Daily Pivot Point R2 155.15 Daily Pivot Point R3 155.62    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling finds cushion near 1.2400 after mixed UK Retail Sales data for March.Geopolitical fears and a strong outlook for the US Dollar support the downside in the GBP/USD pair.Fed's Bostic said he is comfortable with interest rates remaining high.The Pound Sterling (GBP) finds a temporary support near almost five-month low around 1.2400 in Friday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair remains on the backfoot due to deepening geopolitical tensions after Israel reportedly launched an attack against Iran, which improved the appeal for the safe-haven US Dollar. Moreover, continued hawkish guidance on interest rates from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers kept the US Dollar Index (DXY) above the crucial support of 106.00. On Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said progress in inflation towards the 2% target will be slower than expected. Bostic also said he is comfortable with interest rates remaining high as labor demand is robust and wage growth remains resilient. On the economic calendar front, the United Kingdom Retail Sales report for March has highlighted the consequences of higher interest rates. UK Retail Sales remained stagnant month-on-month as a decline in food and non-store retailing was offset by spending on fuel and non-food items. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling finds support after mixed UK Retail Sales data The Pound Sterling finds interim support near 1.2400. The near-term outlook remains weak as the market mood turns risk-off due to fears of further escalation in Middle East tensions. Israel retaliated to Iran’s attack with drones in Friday’s early Asian session, Reuters reported citing several US officials. Iranian state media said that the air defense system brought down three drones over the central city of Isfahan. UK Retail Sales were unchanged in March compared with the previous month, according to data from the country's Office for National Statistics, less than the 0.3% increase forecasted by economists. In February, Retail Sales grew by a meagre 0.1%. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew sharply by 0.8% after contracting by 0.3% in February. Retail Sales data indicate the current status of consumer spending, which accounts for a major part of economic growth. A stagnant performance on a month-on-month basis indicates that the BoE's high interest rates have significantly impacted consumer spending. Going forward, headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict and speculation about BoE rate cuts will guide the next move in the Pound Sterling. On the latter, markets currently anticipate the BoE starting to lower rates in November as March inflation data declined at a slower pace than estimated. On Thursday, BoE policymaker Megan Greene said in the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington: "The numbers that we're seeing in terms of wage growth and services inflation just aren't consistent with a sustainable 2% (consumer price) inflation target." When asked about a potential time frame for rate cuts, Greene said: "I don't think it's imminent." Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling attempts to sustain above 1.2400 The Pound Sterling refreshes an almost five-month low near 1.2400 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is expected to see more downside as the longer-term outlook is bearish. The asset remains below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2560. The Cable experienced a sharp downside after a breakdown of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern formed on a daily time frame. Adding to that, 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the bearish range of between 20.00 and 40.00, suggesting momentum leans to the downside. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 19: Safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets on the last trading day of the week as investors seek refuge on growing fears over a deepening conflict in the Middle East. The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases and market participants will keep a close eye on geopolitical headlines. In the early hours of Friday, reports of Israeli missiles striking Iran triggered a flight to safety. Although Israel is yet to officially confirm a retaliatory attack against Iran, several news outlets, such CBS and CNN, reported US officials saying that Israel has carried out the strike. On the other hand, Iranian state media said that the air defense system brought down three drones over the central city of Isfahan. Moreover, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that there was no plan for an immediate retaliation because there was no clarification on who was behind the incident.Risk-aversion grips financial markets after Israeli missiles strike a site in Iran.Reflecting the risk-averse market atmosphere, US stock index futures are down between 0.55% and 0.8% in the early European session. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index holds relatively steady above 106.00 after closing in positive territory on Thursday. US Dollar price this week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.06% 0.28% 0.08% 0.99% 0.75% 1.01% -0.49%EUR-0.03%   0.23% 0.06% 1.00% 0.71% 0.97% -0.53%GBP-0.27% -0.21%   -0.18% 0.72% 0.48% 0.73% -0.76%CAD-0.09% -0.04% 0.17%   0.94% 0.63% 0.92% -0.59%AUD-1.04% -0.99% -0.79% -0.95%   -0.29% -0.03% -1.54%JPY-0.74% -0.68% -0.46% -0.66% 0.24%   0.28% -1.25%NZD-1.02% -0.97% -0.75% -0.93% 0.02% -0.27%   -1.51%CHF0.49% 0.55% 0.77% 0.58% 1.47% 1.23% 1.49%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   With the immediate reaction to the news, crude oil prices shot higher. After reaching a daily high of $85.58 during the Asian trading hours, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) erased a large portion of its gains and was last seen rising 1.6% on the day at $83.15.Gold spiked above $2,410 following the reports but returned to the $2,380 area into the European morning. EUR/USD turned south and came within a touching distance of 1.0600 early Friday. The pair managed to erase its losses and was last seen trading flat on the day, slightly below 1.0650.GBP/USD slumped to its weakest level since November below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The pair reversed its direction and recovered toward 1.2430 heading into the European session. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Friday that Retail Sales grew 0.8% on a yearly basis in March following the 0.3% contraction recorded in February. During the Asian trading hours, the data from Japan showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% on a yearly basis in March, down slightly from the 2.8% increase recorded in February. This reading came in line with the market expectation. In the meantime, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that they may raise interest rates again if the Yen's declines considerably increase inflation, highlighting the impact currency moves may have on the timing of the next policy shift. After falling sharply toward 153.50 earlier in the day, USD/JPY retraced its decline and was last seen trading virtually unchanged on the day near 154.50. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms'risk-on' and 'risk-off' mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-on'? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-off'? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.  

GBP/JPY loses momentum around 191.65, down 0.31% on the day. The UK Retail Sales came in at 0% MoM in March from a 0.1% rise in the previous reading, weaker than expected. The report that an Israeli missile has hit Iran lift the Japanese Yen against the Pound Sterling. The GBP/JPY cross edges lower to 191.72 during the early European session on Friday. The downbeat UK Retail Sales weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP). Additionally, the rising tension between Israel and Iran heightens concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, providing some support to safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen (JPY) and creating a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross. 

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday that UK Retail Sales arrived at 0% MoM in March from a 0.1% rise in the previous reading, weaker than the market expectation of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Retail Sales ex-fuel dropped by 0.3% MoM, compared with a 0.3% increase in February. In response to the UK Retail Sales figures, The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under selling pressure against the JPY. 

On the other hand, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “main scenario is that future rate hikes are likely to be slow, but that depends on economic data, while BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Japanese central bank may raise interest rates again if the Yen's declines considerably increase inflation. Ueda further stated that the impact of FX moves might affect the timing of the next policy shift. 
 
Early Friday, US officials told CBS News that an Israeli missile had hit Iran. Blasts were reported in the central province of Isfahan, however, it is unclear what was targeted. Iran is on high alert after Israel said that it would retaliate to an Iranian strike on Saturday night. The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran could boost the safe-haven flow demand and continue to lift the JPY.   GBP/JPY Overview Today last price 191.64 Today Daily Change -0.68 Today Daily Change % -0.35 Today daily open 192.32   Trends Daily SMA20 191.57 Daily SMA50 190.6 Daily SMA100 187.45 Daily SMA200 185.51   Levels Previous Daily High 192.79 Previous Daily Low 191.91 Previous Weekly High 193.02 Previous Weekly Low 190 Previous Monthly High 193.54 Previous Monthly Low 187.96 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 192.45 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 192.25 Daily Pivot Point S1 191.89 Daily Pivot Point S2 191.46 Daily Pivot Point S3 191.02 Daily Pivot Point R1 192.77 Daily Pivot Point R2 193.22 Daily Pivot Point R3 193.65    

FX option expiries for Apr 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0500 575m 1.0570 618m 1.0600 650m 1.0640 1b 1.0645 905m 1.0675 625m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      155.00 2b - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6400 467m 0.6415 900m 0.6420 472m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3700 1.8b 1.3775 789m 1.3820 514m

The UK Retail Sales arrived at 0% MoM in March, miss estimates.Core Retail Sales for the UK drops 0.3% MoM in March.GBP/USD stays weak near 1.2400 after mixed UK data.The UK Retail Sales came in at 0% over the month in March vs. 0.3% expected and 0.1% in February, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Friday. The Core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, dropped by 0.3% MoM, compared with a 0.3% growth in February.

NZD/USD attracts some sellers near 0.5880 on the renewed USD demand on Friday. US officials revealed that Israel carried out military strikes against Iran, boosting safe-haven currencies like the USD. The annual inflation rate in New Zealand remains above the central bank target range, keeping the RBNZ holding rates longer. The NZD/USD pair remains under selling pressure around 0.5880 on Friday during the early European session. The risk-off environment amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran lifts the Greenback and weighs on NZD/USD. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges higher above 106.20, nearly the highest level since November 2023. 

US officials revealed that Israel carried out military strikes against Iran. The officials said Israel told the Biden administration early on Thursday that an attack would be launched within the next 24 to 48 hours. Israeli officials informed the US that Iran's nuclear facilities would not be targeted, according to CNN. Investors will monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The turmoil and conflict in this region could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the US Dollar. 

Apart from this, the higher possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay interest rate cuts further provides some support to the USD. Several Fed officials agreed that US inflation remains high and that the US central bank needs more confidence in its trajectory.  

On the Kiwi front, data released from Statistics New Zealand showed that the nation’s inflation has continued to fall. However, it remains above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1 to 3%. This might convince the RBNZ to keep the interest rate high for longer, which might help the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to limit its losses.  NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5881 Today Daily Change -0.0021 Today Daily Change % -0.36 Today daily open 0.5902   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5978 Daily SMA50 0.6067 Daily SMA100 0.6127 Daily SMA200 0.6057   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5943 Previous Daily Low 0.5872 Previous Weekly High 0.6079 Previous Weekly Low 0.5933 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5899 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5916 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5869 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5835 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5798 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.594 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5977 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6011  
 

 

USD/CAD surrenders some of its intraday gains as Iranian media denies any foreign attack on its cities.The higher WTI price provides support for the Canadian Dollar.The Greenback gained traction after Fed officials conveyed hawkish messages on Thursday.USD/CAD pares its intraday gains, trading around 1.3780 during the Asian session on Friday. However, the pair received upward support as the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) gained traction following news of Israeli missiles striking a site in Iran, exacerbating tensions in the Middle East. However, Iranian media has refuted reports of a foreign attack on Iranian cities, including Isfahan. According to Reuters, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency, locals reported hearing explosions at the central Isfahan airport. However, the cause of these explosions remains unknown. The Canadian Dollar receives some support from the higher crude Oil prices, given the fact that Canada is the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US). Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades around $83.80, by the press time. The prices of crude Oil appreciated as US officials confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran. On the US Dollar's front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials conveyed hawkish messages on Thursday, leading to a surge in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, consequently, underpinning the USD/CAD pair. Traders are expected to closely monitor Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who will speak regarding the US economic outlook at the University of Miami, Florida. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A session at the Association for Business Journalists 2024 SABEW Annual Conference in Chicago. USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3779 Today Daily Change 0.0012 Today Daily Change % 0.09 Today daily open 1.3767   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3633 Daily SMA50 1.3564 Daily SMA100 1.3492 Daily SMA200 1.3526   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3782 Previous Daily Low 1.3742 Previous Weekly High 1.3787 Previous Weekly Low 1.3547 Previous Monthly High 1.3614 Previous Monthly Low 1.342 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3757 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3767 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3746 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3724 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3706 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3785 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3803 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3825    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar loses ground on heightened risk aversion as Israeli missiles struck a site in Iran.Australia’s equity market falls to a two-month low of 7,489 on Friday.The US Dollar gains ground after hawkish remarks from Fed officials made on Thursday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends losses for the second consecutive day on Friday, as riskier assets face pressure due to heightened risk aversion across financial markets. This sentiment intensified following confirmation from ABC News that Israeli missiles had struck a site in Iran, exacerbating tensions in the Middle East. The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces challenges alongside a decline in the ASX 200 Index on Friday, nearing its two-month low of 7,489. This trend was influenced by weak cues from Wall Street overnight. Additionally, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.3%, retracting from over four-month highs, as investors anticipated a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding monetary policy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, advances amid heightened concerns over the potential escalation of the Israel-Gaza conflict in the Middle East. This has attracted investors seeking safe-haven assets. Furthermore, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Thursday triggered a surge in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar, subsequently exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Traders are expected to closely monitor upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to partake in a moderated discussion regarding the US economic outlook at the University of Miami, Florida. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is anticipated to participate in a moderated Q&A session at the Association for Business Journalists 2024 SABEW Annual Conference in Chicago. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates on risk aversion, dovish RBA’s outlook According to Reuters, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency, locals reported hearing explosions at the central Isfahan airport. However, the cause of these explosions remains unknown. Investigations are underway to ascertain the precise details of the incident. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic highlighted that US inflation is excessively high and emphasized that the Fed still needs to make progress on addressing inflation. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stressed the Fed's commitment to being data-dependent and expressed that he does not currently perceive an immediate need to lower interest rates. US Initial Jobless Claims reported a figure of 212,000 for the week ending on April 12, compared to the expected 215,000. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey showed an improvement in the manufacturing sector trends with a higher reading of 15.5 for April, exceeding the expected 1.5 and 3.2 prior. US Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) reduced by 4.3% in March, swinging from the previous increase of 9.5%. Australia’s Employment Change posted a reading of -6.6K for March, against the expected 7.2K and 117.6K prior. Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8% in March, lower than the expected 3.9% but higher than the previous reading of 3.7%. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar falls below the psychological level of 0.6400 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6390 on Friday. The latest break below the descending channel on the daily chart denotes a strengthening of the bearish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a bearish sentiment for the AUD/USD pair as it remains below the 50 level. Notable support is identified at the major level of 0.6350, following the psychological level of 0.6300. On the upside, immediate resistance for the AUD/USD pair is anticipated at the psychological level of 0.6400. A breakthrough above the latte could lead the pair to explore the region around the major level of 0.6450 and the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6455. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.05% 0.11% 0.05% 0.44% -0.17% 0.38% -0.52%EUR-0.05%   0.08% 0.00% 0.40% -0.19% 0.30% -0.54%GBP-0.11% -0.06%   -0.06% 0.33% -0.28% 0.23% -0.63%CAD-0.03% 0.02% 0.08%   0.41% -0.19% 0.35% -0.55%AUD-0.49% -0.45% -0.38% -0.45%   -0.66% -0.11% -1.01%JPY0.15% 0.23% 0.29% 0.20% 0.61%   0.53% -0.35%NZD-0.38% -0.31% -0.23% -0.31% 0.10% -0.50%   -0.85%CHF0.51% 0.57% 0.62% 0.56% 0.95% 0.34% 0.85%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee weakens on Friday due to geopolitical tension risks, renewed USD demand. The fear of a wider conflict between Israel and Iran exerts some selling pressure on the INR. Investors await the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes, which are due on Friday.Indian Rupee (INR) trades on a weaker note on Friday amid geopolitical fears and foreign fund outflows. The escalating tension between Israel and Iran heightens concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, triggering the fear of oil supply disruption. Higher oil prices hurt the INR, as India is the third-largest consumer and importer of crude oil. Furthermore, the higher demand for the US dollar (USD) on safe-haven appeal might lift the pair. 

However, the USD/INR’s potential upside is limited as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) market to prevent the volatility of local currency. Investors will monitor the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes on Friday. Also, Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee is set to speak. Daily Digest Market Movers: The Indian Rupee remains vulnerable amid Middle East tensionsTrimming trade deficit, expectations of USD inflows in debt markets, and strong growth momentum have been supportive for the INR,” said Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. Israeli missiles attacked a site target in Iran, ABC News said late Thursday, citing a US source, while Iranian state media claimed an explosion in the country's center days after Iran carried out a retaliatory drone strike on Israel. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2024–25 to 6.8% in its update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO).  The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 13 increased below market consensus, rising by 212,000 from the previous weekly gain of 212K (revised from 211K).  The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 15.5 in April from 3.2 in March, beating the estimation of 1.5. The US Existing Home Sales dropped by 4.3% MoM to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, worse than the anticipated 4.2 million. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said US inflation is expected to return to the 2% target at a slower pace than many had anticipated, adding that he’s comfortable being patient and that rate cuts are likely by year-end.  New York Fed President John Williams said that he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates and that monetary policy is in a good place.  Technical analysis: USD/INR maintains a bullish outlook The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. USD/INR keeps the bullish stance unchanged as the pair is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The upward momentum is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which hovers around 65.00, suggesting that support zones are more likely to hold than to break.

The first upside barrier of the pair will emerge near an all-time high of 83.72. A decisive break above this level will pave the way to the 84.00 psychological round figure. On the other hand, a low of April 18 at 83.50 acts as an initial support level, followed by a low of April 12 at 83.30. A downside break below the 100-day EMA at 83.12 might spark a sharp decline. US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the .  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.08% 0.16% 0.09% 0.56% -0.23% 0.46% -0.56%EUR-0.08%   0.08% 0.00% 0.47% -0.31% 0.38% -0.64%GBP-0.15% -0.08%   -0.07% 0.40% -0.38% 0.30% -0.73%CAD-0.10% 0.00% 0.07%   0.47% -0.31% 0.37% -0.65%AUD-0.55% -0.48% -0.39% -0.47%   -0.78% -0.09% -1.13%JPY0.21% 0.30% 0.34% 0.34% 0.79%   0.66% -0.33%NZD-0.46% -0.38% -0.29% -0.37% 0.11% -0.69%   -1.02%CHF0.57% 0.64% 0.72% 0.65% 1.11% 0.33% 1.02%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

Gold price rises as risk aversion intensifies following reports of Israeli missiles striking a site in Iran.Iran’s Fars News Agency reported explosions at the central Isfahan airport.The gains in the US Dollar could limit the advance of the Gold prices.Gold price surges to nearly $2,410 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. The safe-haven yellow metal gains ground as risk aversion sweeps across the financial markets following confirmation from ABC News that Israeli missiles struck a site in Iran, exacerbating tensions in the Middle East. According to Reuters, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency, locals reported hearing explosions at the central Isfahan airport. However, the cause of these explosions remains unknown. Investigations are ongoing to determine the exact details of the incident. On the US Dollar's front, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials conveyed hawkish messages on Thursday, leading to a surge in US Treasury yields and the Greenback, consequently curtailing the upward momentum of non-yielding assets like Gold. The stronger USD renders bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic highlighted that US inflation is excessively high and emphasized that the Fed still needs to make progress on addressing inflation. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stressed the Fed's commitment to being data-dependent and expressed that he does not currently perceive an immediate need to lower interest rates. XAU/USD Overview Today last price 2412.37 Today Daily Change 33.37 Today Daily Change % 1.40 Today daily open 2379   Trends Daily SMA20 2291.47 Daily SMA50 2166.58 Daily SMA100 2100.37 Daily SMA200 2018.33   Levels Previous Daily High 2392.87 Previous Daily Low 2360.92 Previous Weekly High 2431.61 Previous Weekly Low 2303.02 Previous Monthly High 2236.27 Previous Monthly Low 2039.12 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2380.67 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2373.12 Daily Pivot Point S1 2362.32 Daily Pivot Point S2 2345.65 Daily Pivot Point S3 2330.37 Daily Pivot Point R1 2394.27 Daily Pivot Point R2 2409.55 Daily Pivot Point R3 2426.22    

WTI snaps the three-day winning streak near $85.00 on Friday.Israel retaliates as missiles strike a site in Iran, boosting the black gold price.The expectation that the US Fed will delay interest rate cuts to September might cap the WTI’s upside.Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold gains traction on the day amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran after a US official confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran.

On Friday, ABC News reported that explosions were heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isfahan but the cause was not immediately known. Several flights were diverted over Iranian airspace. Over the weekend, Iran unleashed hundreds of drones and missiles in retaliation for a purported Israeli raid on its Syrian embassy building. The tension between Israel and Iran heightened concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, triggering the fear of oil supply disruption.

On the other hand, several Fed officials have made hawkish comments in recent days. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that US inflation is too high and Fed still has a way to go on inflation, while New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that the Fed is data dependent and he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates. Earlier this week, Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that inflation is higher than expected and the central bank needs more confidence in its trajectory. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 85.1 Today Daily Change 3.22 Today Daily Change % 3.93 Today daily open 81.88   Trends Daily SMA20 83.78 Daily SMA50 80.53 Daily SMA100 76.86 Daily SMA200 79.57   Levels Previous Daily High 82.8 Previous Daily Low 81.05 Previous Weekly High 87.03 Previous Weekly Low 84.01 Previous Monthly High 83.05 Previous Monthly Low 76.5 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 81.72 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 82.13 Daily Pivot Point S1 81.02 Daily Pivot Point S2 80.15 Daily Pivot Point S3 79.26 Daily Pivot Point R1 82.77 Daily Pivot Point R2 83.67 Daily Pivot Point R3 84.53    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Risk-aversion is in full swing across the financial markets after ABC News confirmed reports that Israeli missiles struck a site in Iran, leading to further escalation in the Middle East geopolitical tensions. Reuters reported, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency, that locals heard explosions in central Isfahan airport; although the reason for the explosions is unknown. "The cause of these sounds is still unknown, and investigations continue until the exact details of the incident are determined," the semi-official Fars news agency said. Earlier, reports came in, citing that a radar battalion hit in Syria near the city of Izraa. Another chatter was that there are 'explosions' near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. Finally, speculations over warplane activity across parts of Iraq hit wires. Market reaction The risk barometer, S&P 500 futures, slide 1.25% while the ultimate safe-haven – Gold price jump back toward record highs of $2,432. The US Dollar Index sits at intraday highs near 106.30.
WTI, the US oil, jumps over 3% to near $85 on Middle East war fears. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms'risk-on' and 'risk-off' mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-on'? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is 'risk-off'? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.1046 as compared to the previous day's of 7.1020.

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The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose by 2.7% year-over-year, compared to a 2.8% increase in February, according to the latest data from the Japan Statistics Bureau. This index assesses the price fluctuations of goods and services bought by households. The Japanese Yen (JPY) receives upward support from the hawkish remarks made by Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday. According to a Reuters report, Ueda mentioned in a press conference that the central bank might consider raising interest rates again if significant declines in the Yen substantially boost inflation. This underscores the influence that currency movements could have on the timing of the next policy shift. The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced losses, along with a decline in the ASX 200 Index on Friday. Additionally, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped below 4.3%, stepping back from over four-month highs. This retreat was attributed to soft domestic jobs data, which reinforced a dovish outlook on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. Daily Digest Market Movers: AUD/JPY depreciates on dovish RBA’s outlook Japan’s National CPI, excluding fresh food but including fuel costs, increased 2.6% year-over-year in February, decelerating from a four-month high of 2.8% in January and falling below forecasts of 2.7%. The slowdown was attributed to mild increases in food prices, although it remained above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target due to the weakness of the Yen and high commodity prices. Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi stated on Thursday that the pace of future rate hikes would probably be much slower than that of its global counterparts in recent policy tightening. This is because the impact of rising domestic wages has yet to be fully transmitted to prices, as reported by Reuters. Analysts at Rabobank suggested that stronger Japanese economic data, coupled with stronger expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise rates again later this year, would likely provide the Japanese Yen (JPY) with broad-based strength. They posit that if Japanese real household incomes turn positive later this year, there is a possibility of another BoJ rate hike. On Thursday, Australia’s Employment Change posted a reading of -6.6K for March, against the expected 7.2K and 117.6K prior. Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8% in March, lower than the expected 3.9% but higher than the previous reading of 3.7%. According to a Westpac report, while the central bank signaled that rates are unlikely to be raised further, it requires greater confidence in the inflation outlook before contemplating the possibility of rate cuts. Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY drops to the support level of 98.00 The AUD/JPY trades around 98.20 on Friday. The breach below the significant support level of 98.65, coupled with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting below the 50 level, indicates a bearish sentiment for the pair. The AUD/JPY cross could find immediate support at the psychological level of 98.00. A break below this level could lead the pair to approach the major level of 97.50. On the upside, the major level of 98.50 appears as the barrier, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A breakthrough above the latter could support the AUD/JPY cross to explore the region around the psychological level of 99.00. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.20% 0.24% 0.14% 0.69% -0.27% 0.57% -0.52%EUR-0.20%   0.04% -0.05% 0.49% -0.41% 0.37% -0.71%GBP-0.24% -0.04%   -0.10% 0.45% -0.50% 0.33% -0.76%CAD-0.14% 0.06% 0.09%   0.55% -0.40% 0.43% -0.66%AUD-0.69% -0.49% -0.45% -0.56%   -0.96% -0.12% -1.27%JPY0.22% 0.44% 0.45% 0.36% 0.92%   0.79% -0.29%NZD-0.57% -0.38% -0.33% -0.43% 0.12% -0.80%   -1.07%CHF0.52% 0.72% 0.75% 0.66% 1.20% 0.26% 1.09%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

USD/JPY faces some selling pressure near 154.15 in Friday’s early Asian session. The escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Asia boosts the safe-haven JPY. Investors raise their bets that the US Fed will delay interest rate cuts to September.The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers around 154.15 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours. The risk-off mood and rising tension between Israel and Iran boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the robust US economic data and any hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might cap the pair upside in the near term. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold a meeting next week and it is expected to revise up its inflation forecast for this fiscal year in a quarterly report.
 
Japan’s inflation rate slowed in March, but remains above the central bank's 2% target, the Statistics Bureau of Japan reported on Friday. The year-on-year headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March climbed 2.7% YoY, followed by a 2.8% February increase. The Core CPI inflation, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% YoY in March from an increase of 2.8% in February, below the market consensus of 2.7%. 

On Thursday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Japanese central bank may raise interest rates again if the Yen's declines considerably increase inflation. Ueda added that the impact of currency moves might affect the timing of the next policy shift. 

Meanwhile, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “main scenario is that future rate hikes are likely to be slow, but that depends on economic data. Noguchi noted that the “focus now is on the pace at which the policy rate will be adjusted and at what level it will eventually stabilize.” The uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s future rate hike path remains weighing on the JPY. 

Nonetheless, the conflict between Israel and Iran triggered Middle East war fears. On Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will make its "own decisions" when responding to Iran's unprecedented weekend airstrikes, per CNN. Additionally, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry stated that four Chinese military planes crossed the Taiwan Strait median line in the past 24 hours. The escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Asia might boost safe-haven assets like the JPY and create a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. 

On the USD’s front, investors raise their bets that the US Fed will delay interest rate cuts to September. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that US inflation is too high and the Fed still has a way to go on inflation, while New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that the Fed is data dependent and he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 154.04 Today Daily Change -0.60 Today Daily Change % -0.39 Today daily open 154.64   Trends Daily SMA20 152.39 Daily SMA50 150.77 Daily SMA100 148.08 Daily SMA200 147.58   Levels Previous Daily High 154.68 Previous Daily Low 153.95 Previous Weekly High 153.39 Previous Weekly Low 151.57 Previous Monthly High 151.97 Previous Monthly Low 146.48 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 154.4 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 154.23 Daily Pivot Point S1 154.17 Daily Pivot Point S2 153.7 Daily Pivot Point S3 153.44 Daily Pivot Point R1 154.9 Daily Pivot Point R2 155.15 Daily Pivot Point R3 155.62    

GBP/USD loses traction around 1.2430 amid the firmer US dollar on Friday. The Fed’s hawkish comments boost the Greenback against the GBP. BoE’s Greene said rate cuts were not imminent and that inflation remains too high. The GBP/USD pair remains on the defensive near 1.2430 during the early Asian session on Friday. The downtick of the major pair is backed by the stronger US Dollar (USD) as the strong US economic data and hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have triggered the speculation that the US central bank will delay interest rate cuts to September.

On Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that US inflation is too high and the central bank still has a way to go on inflation. Bostic further stated that he’s comfortable being patient and rate cuts are likely by year end. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that the Fed is data-dependent and noted that he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates. Investors are now pricing in nearly 66% odds that the Fed will cut its rate in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.  

About the data, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 13 increased below market expectations, rising by 212,000 from the previous week of 212,000. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 15.5 in April from 3.2 in March, beating the estimation of 1.5. Finally, US Existing Home Sales dropped by 4.3% MoM to 4.19 million from 4.38 million, worse than the anticipated 4.2 million.

On the GBP’s front, the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut its interest rate ahead of the US Fed has exerted some selling pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the USD. However, BoE policymaker Megan Greene said on Wednesday that rate cuts were not imminent, and the combination of high inflation and weak growth means there is a way to go to bring inflation back to target. Greene added that the recent tensions in the Middle East could pose a risk to the inflation outlook, including by elevating inflation expectations. These comments failed to boost the GBP from nearly six-month lows. Investors will take more cues from the UK March Retail Sales, along with the speeches by BoE’s Ramsden and Breeden later on Friday.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.243 Today Daily Change -0.0007 Today Daily Change % -0.06 Today daily open 1.2437   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2573 Daily SMA50 1.2643 Daily SMA100 1.266 Daily SMA200 1.2573   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2485 Previous Daily Low 1.2434 Previous Weekly High 1.2709 Previous Weekly Low 1.2427 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2453 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2465 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2419 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.24 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2367 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.247 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2503 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2521  
 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March climbed 2.7% YoY, compared to a 2.8% uptick in February, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

Further details unveil that the National CPI ex Fresh food arrived at 2.6% YoY in February versus 2.8% prior. The figure was below the market consensus of 2.7%.  Market reactionFollowing the Japan inflation data, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.02% on the day at 154.61.  Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

 

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke in a press conference after attending the Group of 20 (G20) finance leaders' meeting in Washington on Thursday. Ueda said that the central bank may raise interest rates again if the Yen's declines considerably increase inflation, highlighting the impact currency moves may have on the timing of the next policy shift. Key quotes"There's a possibility the weak yen could push up trend inflation through rises in imported goods prices.” 

"If the impact becomes too big to ignore, it might lead to a change in monetary policy.” 


“The BoJ will scrutinize how the Yen's declines so far this year could affect the economy and prices, and take the findings into account in producing fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts due at next week's policy meeting.”Market reactionThe USD/JPY pair is trading at 154.57, losing 0.05% on the day at the time of writing. Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.
  

AUD/USD falls following hawkish signals from Fed officials, emphasizing no immediate rate cuts.US economic indicators strengthen, with the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index hitting a new high since April 2022.Australian employment data disappoints, with job losses and a slight increase in the unemployment rate casting shadows over RBA forecasts.The Aussie Dollar is on the defensive against the US Dollar, as Friday’s Asian session commences. On Thursday, the antipodean clocked losses of 0.21% against its counterpart, driven by Fed officials emphasizing they’re in no rush to ease policy. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6419 at the time of writing. AUD/USD slumped on Fed officials’ comments A reflection of that was Wall Street’s finishing in the red. On Thursday, Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic was hawkish, questioning that they could not be able to cut rates towards the end of the year. His colleague, John Williams from the New York Fed, said that the current policy is in a good place and that patience is required before lowering rates. Although he doesn’t consider hiking rates as his base scenario, he added the Fed would raise them if needed. US data revealed that manufacturing activity is gaining steam. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index experienced a significant increase, jumping to 15.5, far surpassing the modest expectation of 1.5, its highest level since April 2022. In the jobs market, Initial Jobless Claims for the last week were unchanged at 212K, while Continuing Claims edged up to 1.812 million, below estimates. Given the solid fundamental backdrop, traders had priced in two rate cuts by the Fed for 2024. Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows investors project the Federal funds rate (FFR) to end at 5.07%. On the Aussie front, jobs data declined by 6.6K in March, missing estimates, while the unemployment rate edged up from 3.7% to 3.8%. According to ANZ Analysts, “the labour market may be running slightly hotter than the RBA forecast at the time of its February Statement on Monetary Policy. The RBA was forecasting employment growth to slow to 2.0% y/y and the unemployment rate to reach 4.2% by the end of the June quarter this year.” AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook The AUD/USD has shifted bearishly after the exchange rate fell below the latest cycle low of 0.6442 on February 13, the previous year-to-date (YTD) low. Hence, a continuation is expected, but sellers must surpass the 0.6400 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the November 10, 2023, daily low of 0.6338 an intermediate support level, followed by a major cycle low printed on October 26, 2023, at 0.6270. On the other hand, buyers need to push prices toward the 0.6500 figure, if they would like to remain hopeful of higher prices.AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.642 Today Daily Change -0.0015 Today Daily Change % -0.23 Today daily open 0.6435   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6524 Daily SMA50 0.6538 Daily SMA100 0.6596 Daily SMA200 0.6538   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6446 Previous Daily Low 0.64 Previous Weekly High 0.6644 Previous Weekly Low 0.6456 Previous Monthly High 0.6667 Previous Monthly Low 0.6478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6429 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6418 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6408 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6381 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6362 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6454 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6473 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.65    

EUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0640 on the stronger USD on Friday.Fed’s Bostic said US inflation is expected to return to target at a slower pace than previously anticipated.ECB policymakers noted the central bank should cut rates in June to avoid falling behind the inflation curve.The EUR/USD pair extends its downside around 1.0640 after retreating from weekly peaks of 1.0690 on Friday during the early Asian session. The hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provide some support to the US Dollar (USD). Later in the day, Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee is set to speak.

On Thursday, the number of US citizens that filed new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 212K for the week ending April 13 from the previous weekly gain of 212K (revised from 211K). This figure came in below the market consensus of 215K, according to the US Department of Labor. The report indicated that the labor market remains resilient and investors expect that the US Fed might delay cutting interest rates until September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Tuesday that monetary policy needed to be restrictive for longer as inflation continued to surprise on the upside in the first three months of the year. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that US inflation is expected to return to the 2% target at a slower pace than many had anticipated. Bostic added that he’s comfortable being patient and rate cuts are likely by year end. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said that he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates and that monetary policy is in a good place. The strong US economic data and the higher-for-longer US rate narrative continue to lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled that it might start cutting the interest rate in June. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday that the central bank will be ready to reduce the restrictions on its monetary policy stance if the data evolves as it expects. The ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the ECB should cut interest rates in June to avoid falling behind the inflation curve.

Elsewhere, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said a June rate cut appeared increasingly likely, although certain inflation data remains higher than expected. The growing speculation that the ECB will begin to cut the interest rate earlier than the US Fed exerts some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and caps the EUR/USD’s upside for the time being. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0641 Today Daily Change -0.0032 Today Daily Change % -0.30 Today daily open 1.0673   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0776 Daily SMA50 1.0816 Daily SMA100 1.0857 Daily SMA200 1.0824   Levels Previous Daily High 1.068 Previous Daily Low 1.0606 Previous Weekly High 1.0885 Previous Weekly Low 1.0622 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0652 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0634 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0626 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0579 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0552 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.07 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0727 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0773    

The daily RSI shows that buyers' hold over the market is likely fading, signaling the growing presence of sellers.On the hourly chart, indicators underline a prominent seller command in the past sessions.The NZD/JPY is trading slightly lower at around 91.23. It seems the firm grip buyers had over the market is dwindling, yet the pair doggedly persists above crucial Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Market watchers should eye the short-term trajectory of the NZD/JPY for any potential shifts that could give sellers the upper hand. Specifically, if bears breach the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 91.00. On the daily RSI fluctuates around the positive region but is currently pointing down. This, combined with the rising red bars trend in the MACD (Moving Average Converge Divergence) histogram, indicates that buyer dominance is fading and the market could begin favoring sellers soon. NZD/JPY daily chart In addition, the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below the neutral 50 line, reflecting a dominant presence of sellers in the recent sessions. The negative thrust is confirmed by the MACD, which reveals decreasing green bars, indicating diminishing positive momentum. NZD/JPY hourly chart Upon evaluating the broader landscape, the NZD/JPY is currently hovering above its key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), reflecting continued buying pressure thereby sustaining the long-term uptrend. However, the pair closely challenges the 20-day SMA, suggesting potential for further downward movements if this level doesn’t hold. Moreover, the pair maintaining a stance above the 100 and 200-day SMAs reinforces a long-term bullish view.   NZD/JPY Overview Today last price 91.28 Today Daily Change -0.04 Today Daily Change % -0.04 Today daily open 91.32   Trends Daily SMA20 91.07 Daily SMA50 91.43 Daily SMA100 90.67 Daily SMA200 89.34   Levels Previous Daily High 91.44 Previous Daily Low 90.67 Previous Weekly High 92.37 Previous Weekly Low 90.7 Previous Monthly High 92.2 Previous Monthly Low 90.17 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 91.15 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 90.97 Daily Pivot Point S1 90.85 Daily Pivot Point S2 90.38 Daily Pivot Point S3 90.08 Daily Pivot Point R1 91.62 Daily Pivot Point R2 91.92 Daily Pivot Point R3 92.39