जोखिम की चेतावनी: सीएफडी में ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरी है तथा आप अपनी निवेश की गई राशि खो सकते हैं। कृपया सुनिश्चित करें कि आप इसमें शामिल जोखिम को समझते हैं व आप बर्दाश्त से अधिक राशि का निवेश ना करें। पूर्ण जोखिम प्रकटीकरण को पढ़ें।

विदेशी मुद्रा समाचार समयरेखा

शुक्रवार , अप्रेल 27, 2018

Comments from China Premier Li Keqiang are crossing the wires via China State Media: China is open to negotiating with the US on trade.  The US sh

Comments from China Premier Li Keqiang are crossing the wires via China State Media: China is open to negotiating with the US on trade.  The US should manage their conflict through dialogue.   

As reported by Reuters, the leaders of the two Koreas are meeting today, a pivotal moment in Korea's modern history. Key quotes "South Korea’s Moon

As reported by Reuters, the leaders of the two Koreas are meeting today, a pivotal moment in Korea's modern history.Key quotes"South Korea’s Moon Jae-in will greet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the military demarcation line at 9:30 a.m. (0030 GMT), making Kim the first North Korean leader to set foot in the South since the 1950-53 Korean War." "The two are expected to talk denuclearization and exchanges between the Koreas." "First inter-Korean summit in more than a decade." "North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said Kim had left Pyongyang for the “historical” summit in which he would “open-heartedly discuss with Moon Jae-in all the issues arising in improving inter-Korean relations and achieving peace, prosperity and reunification of the Korean peninsula.”" "Scepticism has been rampant about whether Kim is ready to abandon the hard-earned nuclear arsenal his country has defended." "The two neighbors expect to release a joint statement late on Friday."

The EUR/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (EUR1MRR) fell to -0.525 today - the lowest level since Feb. 27, signaling the implied volatility premiu

EUR/USD risk reversals hit the lowest level since Feb. 27.  The decline indicates solid demand for the EUR put options (bearish bets).  The EUR/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (EUR1MRR) fell to -0.525 today - the lowest level since Feb. 27, signaling the implied volatility premium for the EUR put options is significantly higher than that of the EUR calls.  About ten days ago, the risk reversals gauge stood at 0.025, meaning the implied volatility premium for the EUR calls was more than the premium for puts. The sharp decline in the risk reversals shows increased demand for the EUR puts and indicates the investors are prepping for a deeper pullback in the EUR/USD spot. EUR1MRR 

As reported by Bloomberg, analysts have noted that the Aussie is in a precarious position thanks to low rates. Key highlights Aussie bonds are consi

As reported by Bloomberg, analysts have noted that the Aussie is in a precarious position thanks to low rates.Key highlightsAussie bonds are considered a buy because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep rates low for at least 6 to 12 months. For the same reason, the AUD is expected to continue to depreciate. RBA is expected to stay stuck on rates while the Fed is seen hiking rates three more times this year. Aussie 10-year bonds are yielding 2.88%.  

USD/JPY is open in Tokyo consolidated at the 21 and 10-hr smas holding around the familiar 109.30 level, having posted a daily high at 109.37 and low

USD/JPY: BoJ coming up, no change is expected, but...USD/JPY: keeping eyes on US yields with strong correlation. USD/JPY is open in Tokyo consolidated at the 21 and 10-hr smas holding around the familiar 109.30 level, having posted a daily high at 109.37 and low at 109.26 and sub the highest levels since February of this year.  USD/JPY was capped by yesterday's barrier defence, exposing the cloud top again now at 109.00, just below the rising 21-4hr sma at. However, the dollar remains firm on the 91 handle in the DXY with the ECB outcome overnight where Draghi's message was confident but cautious. On the flip side of that, USD/JPY remains correlated to US yields that have slipped back below the 3.00% in the 10's and subsequently pressured the price in the yen from the 109.45 level to a low of 109.06 making for today's consolidation so far ahead of the BoJ.BoJ meeting coming upNo change is expected, (a benchmark -0.1% deposit rate, “around” 0% yield on the 10 year government bond and an annual JPY80 trillion expansion in bond holdings) and analysts at Westpac explained the latter pace has not been reached for some time, because the BoJ simply doesn’t need to buy so many bonds to keep the 10 year yield near zero: "It makes sense for the BoJ to drop this guidance and this quarterly “Outlook” meeting with fresh forecasts would be a suitable time. But to do so could spark a sharp rise in the yen and muddy the policy messaging, so it remains only an outside chance."Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, the pair is consolidating well above a daily ascendant trend line, while moving averages have advanced below it with the 100 SMA nearing the trend line and reinforcing the 108.20/30 support are:  "The Momentum indicator has corrected overbought conditions and turned flat above its mid-line, while the RSI also lost downward strength around 66, indicating that sellers are not interested at current levels."

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) registered at -0.7%, below expectations (0%) in March

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 2.2%, above expectations (2%) in March

Japan Large Retailer's Sales above expectations (-0.5%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 1.2%, above expectations (0.5%) in March

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in March: Actual (1%)

Analysts at UOB Group noted the dollar's resilience and higher levels for USD/JPY. Key Quotes: "While in overbought territory, the rally appears to

Analysts at UOB Group noted the dollar's resilience and higher levels for USD/JPY.Key Quotes:"While in overbought territory, the rally appears to have scope to extend higher to the next resistance at 109.70" "We attach high importance to 110.00 as a clear break of this level would indicate that USD has likely made a significant low at 104.55 last month." "In the meanwhile, we continue to expect USD to stay supported and only a break of 108.45 (‘key support’ previously at 108.15) would indicate that a top is in place."

Japan's Tokyo CPI, the indicator used a way to suss out the national figures that publish at a later date, missed expectations to print at 0.6% as Jap

Japan's Tokyo CPI, the indicator used a way to suss out the national figures that publish at a later date, missed expectations to print at 0.6% as Japan's struggle to breathe life into Japan's inflation figures continues to miss the mark.  

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) below forecasts (0.5%) in April: Actual (0.3%)

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (0.8%) in April

Forex today was dictated by the ECB in the main with a close eye on US yields where the benchmark slipped below the 3% psychological level while the d

Forex today was dictated by the ECB in the main with a close eye on US yields where the benchmark slipped below the 3% psychological level while the dollar maintained the 91 handle, supported by surprise data beats. Meanwhile, the session got off to an early start in NY with the ECB leaving policy and the wording of their statement unchanged. At first, the euro went bid on the release of the statement and the DXY drifted lower to make a low for the day down at 90.95, but recovered, and some, to 91.63 when traders picked up the air of caution from the presser.  Analysts at Westpac have the outcome of Draghi' presser as follows: "President Draghi repeated their patient, prudent and persistent policy stance and stated that the Governing Council did not discuss their June meeting or levels of FX. Indeed, Draghi said that “we didn’t discuss monetary policy per se.” A Bloomberg report claimed that Draghi rebuffed a proposal to discuss what to do after the Sep 2018 provisional date for the end of asset purchases." Analysts at ANZ summed up that "the ECB is watching the data closely as some other indicators, like the drop in backlogs in manufacturing, may suggest a fall in demand. Draghi’s bottom line: Caution in reading recent developments, but an unchanged confidence in inflation returning to target." Meanwhile, the US 10yr treasury yield dropped back below the 3% level and from its four-year high of 3.03% to 2.98%. However, most of that move came before the ECB decision. The 2's climbed two basis points to 2.49%.  While the Fed fund futures yields are continuing to price the next rate hike in June as a done deal, the divergence between the Fed and ECB was in play again through the euro that fell hard after the initial short covering to 1.2210 post ECB, (wrong-footed on Draghi/statement less dovish than expected) and due to dollar month-end buying/ DE 10 year bund trading sub 0.60%. As for other currencies, the pound was in retreat from the 1.40 handle, caught up in the euro flows around the ECB, initially bid on the outcome but subsequently dropped to 1.3903 the low. However, the pair had been at 1.3895 in the early morning of the European shift on the back of Brexit concerns and the Commons debate about the EU's customs union. The cross was underwater on the ECB and ended the US session at 0.8695. The BoE is tipped to hike on May, but of late has been come more of a coin toss given that the more recent and key data missed expectations in the UK economy.  USD/JPY was correlated to US yields and slipped back from the 109.45 level to a low of 109.06 before spiking post the ECB and solid US data. The pair finally chopped in a narrow range to a close in the 109.30's. The Kiwi touched 0.7056, which is the lowest since 28 December. However, the rage overnight was between there and 0.7095, easing back sharply to below the 10 and 21-hr smas for a close of 0.7061. The Aussie was choppy in the early part of the NY session following a volatile climate in European trade where the 0.7588 highs were met with supply down to the low of 0.7546.Key notes from US session:Draghi speech indicates that recent slowdown matters much and APP end will be moved to 2019Wall Street stocks surge higher on better earnings and sub-3% on 10-year yieldsFundamental and Political wrap: ECB confident but cautiousKey events in Asia:Analysts at Westpac offered their outlook for today's Asia session; BoJ on the cards: "Australia’s calendar is low key (Q1 producer prices) but there is plenty to watch elsewhere, including the meeting between Korean leaders Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un on the border. The Bank of Japan reviews monetary policy today (no fixed time but usually early afternoon Sydney time – recent announcements were in the 1:30-2:30pm Syd window). No change is likely in the key policy settings: a benchmark -0.1% deposit rate, “around” 0% yield on the 10 year government bond and an annual JPY80 trillion expansion in bond holdings. The latter pace has not been reached for some time, because the BoJ simply doesn’t need to buy so many bonds to keep the 10 year yield near zero. It makes sense for the BoJ to drop this guidance and this quarterly “Outlook” meeting with fresh forecasts would be a suitable time. But to do so could spark a sharp rise in the yen and muddy the policy messaging, so it remains only an outside chance." There is plenty of data to watch too. Japan releases several reports well before the BoJ announcement, including Tokyo Apr CPI and Mar industrial production.  

Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 0.5%, below expectations (0.8%) in April

Japan Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (2.5%) in March

Japan Jobs/applicants ratio in line with expectations (1.59) in March

The NZD/JPY is trading quietly heading into Friday's session, but sticking near recent lows just above the 77.00 handle. The Kiwi failed to react not

Kiwi Trade Balance disappoints, but a deeply bearish NZD can't sell any further. BoJ rate call, inflation figures to dominate Asia's Friday session. The NZD/JPY is trading quietly heading into Friday's session, but sticking near recent lows just above the 77.00 handle. The Kiwi failed to react noticeably to New Zealand Trade Balance figures, dipping for single-digit pips before recovering quickly. New Zealand's YoY Trade Balance declined by $3.42 billion, worse than the expected $-2.9 billion, while the previously reported figure was also revised further into the red at $-3.07 billion.               Traders are bracing for a busy Japan session that sees Tokyo CPI at 23:30 GMT before Thursday's midnight rollover, which is expected (or hoped) to remain steady at 0.8% YoY. Following that will be the headline event of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) Rate Decision in Friday's early hours. While the BoJ is expected to remain stuck on rates for the foreseeable future, traders will be looking into the central bank's statements carefully to pick up ideas about what the BoJ plans to do in the future in terms of beginning to tighten up their hyper-easy monetary policy.NZD/JPY Levels to watchThe pair has had a bearish run, declining for ten straight trading days, and the challenge for bears will be to pull together enough momentum to push the NZD/JPY into the last swing lows between 76.30 and 75.50, while bulls will have to work over the 50.0 Fibo level at 78.30 before being able to challenge the 200-day SMA at 79.10.

United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence below expectations (-7) in April: Actual (-9)

The AUD/JPY is consolidating near 82.60, lacking momentum to push the pair into either direction this week. The pair traded to the inside of a 40-pip

Aussie trades flat on a quiet week, but Friday promises to end things on a busy note.BoJ rate call, US GDP will introduce a healthy dose of volatility to end the week.The AUD/JPY is consolidating near 82.60, lacking momentum to push the pair into either direction this week. The pair traded to the inside of a 40-pip range on Thursday, ending the day lower slightly but still well within the week's range as the Aussie has been relegated to the back of the currency pile. The Aussie's showing on the macro calendar for Friday is an equally quiet showing, with only low-tier Producer Price Index figures on the docket, though the Yen is not the same story.  The Yen sees a busy Friday, kicking off with the Tokyo CPI figures at 23:30 GMT Thursday, which is expected to hold steady at 0.8%. Tokyo CPI is used as a precursor to the national figures, and will carry some weight behind it, though the overall impact could be limited as traders await the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday with their Rate Statement. The BoJ is widely expected to keep holding interest rates where they are for the indeterminant future, but markets will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ's rhetoric to glean some hints about the central bank's future direction with tapering.AUD/JPY Levels to watchWith the pair trading back after making lower highs near 83.60 last week, the pair is leaning to the bearish side, and Aussie bulls are going to see tough competition from the last highs and the 50-day EMA at 83.15 while the way looks clear for bears to take it to lows near 80.50.

New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) registered at $-86M, below expectations ($270M) in March

New Zealand Imports came in at $4.94B, above forecasts ($4.85B) in March

New Zealand Exports came in at $4.85B, below expectations ($4.98B) in March

New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) came in at $-3.42B, below expectations ($-2.9B) in March

Analysts at Westpac noted that the ECB left policy and the wording of their statement unchanged, as universally expected.  Key Quotes: "The tone of

Analysts at Westpac noted that the ECB left policy and the wording of their statement unchanged, as universally expected. Key Quotes:"The tone of the press conference and Q&A was of caution and concern over the recent moderation in activity despite their continued confidence in achieving their targets.  President Draghi repeated their patient, prudent and persistent policy stance and stated that the Governing Council did not discuss their June meeting or levels of FX. Indeed, Draghi said that “we didn’t discuss monetary policy per se.”  "A Bloomberg report claimed that Draghi rebuffed a proposal to discuss what to do after the Sep 2018 provisional date for the end of asset purchases." "EUR/USD probed as high as 1.2210 after the brief statement was released but fell sharply in response to Draghi’s press conference, reaching 1.2096, a low since 12 January."

The AUD/USD is still trading into the low side of action, in play near 0.7550. AUD/USD analysis: still headed to 0.7500 critical support The recent

The Aussie is holding off on further losses ahead of a high-impact Friday.US GDP, BoJ figures to inject some life into Friday's markets.The AUD/USD is still trading into the low side of action, in play near 0.7550. AUD/USD analysis: still headed to 0.7500 critical support The recent downside move in the AUD/USD has definitely decelerated, and the pair is struggling near recent support as the market heads into a Friday that features US GDP prelim figures at 12:30 GMT, which promises to move markets to cap off a decidedly one-sided week. Before that will be BoJ Friday, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hitting markets with a slew of macro data, but the critical figure to watch will undoubtedly be the BoJ's Rate Decision and subsequent Press Conference. While the BoJ is staunchly buried within their hyper-easy monetary policy and unlikely to budge on rates any time soon, traders will still be looking for hints about the BOJ's movement in the future where potential policy tightening might be concerned, as markets anticipate that the Japanese central bank may have to abandon its 2% inflation target and begin walking back their record-breaking policy. On the Aussie docket will be Q1 PPI figures at 01:30 GMT, which is unlikely to move the AUD much, but the expectations for production industry prices is telling of the slack in the Australian economy, with the QoQ PPI expected to come in at 0.4%, a decline from the previous reading of 0.6%.AUD/USD Levels to watchAs noted by FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, "the 4 hours chart for the pair shows that the 20 SMA maintains a strong downward slope, acting now as a dynamic resistance around 0.7580, while technical indicators remain directionless within negative territory. The pair has a relevant support at 0.7500, where it found a bottom back in December, with a break below it opening doors for a steeper decline down to 0.7250 for the following weeks." Support levels: 0.7545 0.7500 0.7470 Resistance levels: 0.7580 0.7620 0.7660     

Analysts at ANZ noted that consumer confidence dropped 7.5 points to 120.5 in April, sitting slightly above its historical average. Key Quotes: "Bot

Analysts at ANZ noted that consumer confidence dropped 7.5 points to 120.5 in April, sitting slightly above its historical average.Key Quotes:"Both current and future conditions indexes fell, the latter by more." "A strong labour market, low interest rates and a steady housing market are supporting sentiment. Nonetheless, consumers appear to be feeling a little less bullet-proof, consistent with our view the saving rate will lift."

NZD/USD is steady in early Asia having been in a consolidative range overnight and relatively robust in the face of a strong dollar, having already lo

NZD/USD: traders await trade data, bird roubst in face of strong dollar.ND/USD: made a fresh low, remains below the cloud monthly base.NZD/USD is steady in early Asia having been in a consolidative range overnight and relatively robust in the face of a strong dollar, having already lost plenty of ground this past week from 0.7395. Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7062, up 0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7065 and low at 0.7061. NZD/USD touched 0.7056, which is the lowest since 28 December. However, the rage overnight was between there and 0.7095, easing back sharply to below the 10 and 21-hr smas for a close of 0.7061. US data underpinned the DXY on the 91 handle, despite a drop back in the benchmark below the 3.00% psychological level. US 10's ranged between 2.98%-3.03%. Looking ahead for today, the March trade data is a data risk.
US data beats expectations
Jobless claims for the week ended April 21 fell to 209,000, undercutting the consensus estimate of 230,000. Durable goods orders for March advanced 2.6%, versus 2.5% expected, while core capital orders for the same month bumped 0.1% higher, compared with 0.9% prior.The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $68 billion in March, less than the $73.4 billion deficit expected. NZD/USD levels Technicals lean bearish after a new low was set with the RSIs biased down and with an inverted hammer on the monthly sticks with price changing hands below the monthly cloud base. The bears can target 0.7055 (low) and 0.7030. To the upside, 0.7150 guards 0.7185 resistance.

Analysts at Westpac noted that the Bank of Japan reviews monetary policy today (no fixed time but usually early afternoon Sydney time – recent announc

Analysts at Westpac noted that the Bank of Japan reviews monetary policy today (no fixed time but usually early afternoon Sydney time – recent announcements were in the 1:30-2:30pm Syd window). Key Quotes:"No change is likely in the key policy settings: a benchmark -0.1% deposit rate, “around” 0% yield on the 10 year government bond and an annual JPY80 trillion expansion in bond holdings." "The latter pace has not been reached for some time, because the BoJ simply doesn’t need to buy so many bonds to keep the 10 year yield near zero. It makes sense for the BoJ to drop this guidance and this quarterly “Outlook” meeting with fresh forecasts would be a suitable time. But to do so could spark a sharp rise in the yen and muddy the policy messaging, so it remains only an outside chance." "There is plenty of data to watch too. Japan releases several reports well before the BoJ announcement, including Tokyo Apr CPI and Mar industrial production."

US stocks surged higher on Thursday as quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimates and the 10-year US Treasury yields pulled back from the high made a

Microsoft, Intel and Amazon among others beat expectations on Thursday sending US indices higher.The 10-year US Treasury yields pullback sub-3% further collaborating to the stocks advance.  US stocks surged higher on Thursday as quarterly earnings beat analysts’ estimates and the 10-year US Treasury yields pulled back from the high made at 3.035% to currently trade down in the 2.981% region. Investors were getting scared that if Treasury yields soared too high it would force people out of risky assets such as stocks into cash. On Thursday, April 26, the S&P 500 rose 1.1% to close at 2,666.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 238.51 points and closed at 24,322.34, Visa was the winner stock in the index. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 1.6% to 7,118.68. The move up in stocks was lead by better-than-anticipated earnings. Microsoft jumped a whopping 9.1% beating estimates with 95 cents per share versus 85 cents expected. The number users of the social media website was steady despite the Cambridge Analytica data leak scandal. Advanced Micro Devices also beat expectations and the stock soared 14 percent while Chipotle went parabolic and jumped not less than 24.4% on better than expected earnings. Amazon also beats estimates with earnings per share of $3.27 per share versus $1.26 per share expected. Intel joins the party with 87 cents per share versus 72 cents per share forecast by analysts. So far 80% of the S&P 500 companies have reported better than anticipated earnings.  "There are two things driving the market: Earnings and the news flow out of Washington. The earnings reports have been good thus far, I see no reason why that wouldn't continue," said Randy Frederick, from the Schwab Center for Financial Research. On the macroeconomic front, Friday will see the release of the US Gross Domestic Product which is expected to decelerate to 2% in the first quarter form 2.9% from the previous reading. On the same day the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce will release inflation data with the  Real Personal Consumption Expenditure indicator expected to accelerate at 2.4% from 1.9% on the core reading for the first quarter of the year.Nasdaq daily chart 

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI rose from previous 76 to 77 in May