जोखिम की चेतावनी: सीएफडी में ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरी है तथा आप अपनी निवेश की गई राशि खो सकते हैं। कृपया सुनिश्चित करें कि आप इसमें शामिल जोखिम को समझते हैं व आप बर्दाश्त से अधिक राशि का निवेश ना करें। पूर्ण जोखिम प्रकटीकरण को पढ़ें। ForexTime Ltd लाइसेंस संख्या 185/12 के तहत साइप्रस सेक्योरिटीज द्वारा नियंत्रित है।
जोखिम की चेतावनी: आपकी पूंजी जोखिम में है। हम नेगेटिव बैलेंस बचाव से आपको कवर करते हैं।
आपकी पूंजी जोखिम में है। हम नेगेटिव बैलेंस बचाव से आपको कवर करते हैं।

विदेशी मुद्रा समाचार समयरेखा

शुक्रवार , जनवरी 19, 2018

Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell more than 1 percent, reportedly due to fears that rising US shale output could offset the OPEC-led deal

Oil  hits 10-day low in Asia. Rising US oil output could counter OPEC output cuts. Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell more than 1 percent, reportedly due to fears that rising US shale output could offset the OPEC-led deal to clear a supply glut. WTI oil hit 10-day low of $62.84 a few minutes go and was last seen trading at $63.10/barrel. Meanwhile, Brent also hit a 10-day low of $68.31 and was last seen trading at $68.50/barrel. In a monthly report released yesterday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said rival producers are likely to boost supply by 1.15 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up from 990,000 bpd expected previously. OPEC's upward revision of rivals' supply forecast came a day after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) comments that the shale oil output is likely to rise by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) over the next year. Ahead in the day, oil could remain on the back foot, dragging energy stocks lower across the board. In the US session, Baker Hughes weekly inventory report could move oil prices.      

The USD/JPY pair continues to find support near 110.85 region, although the upside attempts struggle near 111 handle, as persistent broad USD weakness

Underpinned by higher Treasury yields. BoJ leaves JGB buys unchanged today. Focus shifts to the US data. The USD/JPY pair continues to find support near 110.85 region, although the upside attempts struggle near 111 handle, as persistent broad USD weakness continue to negate the impact of rising Treasury yields.USD/JPY: Bearish bias still intact?The recovery in the spot fuelled by a sharp rally seen in Treasury yields lost steam in Asia, with the bears back in control amid a sudden drop witnessed in oil prices, which spooked the sentiment across the Asian markets, thereby keeping the demand for the safe-haven Yen somewhat underpinned. However, the downside appears cushioned amid ongoing strength in the US rates on the back of the reports that the US House passed the government stopgap funding bill, while rising expectations of a March rate hike also boosted Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10-year yields having risen to the highest levels since Dec 2016 at 2.637%. Moreover, the BoJ kept the amounts of JGB purchases unchanged today, which added to the latest leg lower in the Yen. Looking ahead, the pair will get influenced by the Treasury yields price-action and risk trends ahead of the US prelim consumer sentiment data.USD/JPY Technical ViewJim Langlands at FX Charts, explained: “US$Jpy has chopped around either side of 111.00 for much of Thursday, and more of the same looks likely until the US session.Key Levels 

The latest leg higher in the EUR/USD (from Jan. 9 low of 1.1915) seems to have run out of steam as the bulls struggle this week to take out 1.23 level

EUR/USD rally stalls in 1.2160-1.2320 range. Upside capped by fears Draghi would tame ECB hawks. USD fails to catch a bid despite rising T-yields. Fears of US government shutdown. The latest leg higher in the EUR/USD (from Jan. 9 low of 1.1915) seems to have run out of steam as the bulls struggle this week to take out 1.23 levels in a convincing manner. The spot clocked a three-year high of 1.2323 on Wednesday, before falling back to 1.2165 levels. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2245 levels.Draghi likely to tame hawks at ECBThe upside is being capped reportedly due to fears that ECB's Draghi would convey a dovish message next week. Also, the recent ECB rhetoric was directed at the pace of EUR's ascent, forcing investors to question whether they have run ahead of themselves.US 10-year yield clocks 13-month highThe US treasury bond yields, which are normally highly correlated with Dollar, have decoupled and risen without the US Dollar. However, the USD may find bids as the 10-year yield rose today above 2.63 percent; its highest level December 2014.Focus on US government funding billThe US House of Representatives passed a bill to fund government operations through Feb. 16. Now it heads to the Senate, where it faces an uncertain future. The resulting uncertainty could overshadow rising Treasury yields and keep USD bulls at bay.EUR/USD Technical LevelsFXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes, " An acceleration upward through 1.2280 should lean the scale towards the upside and favor a re-test of the 1.2322 high, while beyond this last, the rally can continue up to 1.2350. Below 1.2200, lower lows are likely, but bulls are still willing to add on dips." Support levels:  1.2200 1.2165 1.2130 Resistance levels: 1.2280 1.2320 1.2350

Reuters came out with the latest headlines, citing that the US Senate vote on the US government stopgap funding bill has been delayed until Friday. E

Reuters came out with the latest headlines, citing that the US Senate vote on the US government stopgap funding bill has been delayed until Friday. Earlier, it was reported that the US Senate plans the first procedural vote on stopgap US government funding bill on Thursday night.

Analysts at Nomura offer a brief preview of what to expect from today’s UK retail sales release due to be reported at 0930GMT. Key Quotes: “December

Analysts at Nomura offer a brief preview of what to expect from today’s UK retail sales release due to be reported at 0930GMT.Key Quotes:“December is, of course, the most important month of the year for retail sales. So far the evidence has been patchy - the CBI distributive trades survey (volumes growth) has remained upbeat, and while the BRC measure of growth remains in positive territory it is modest at 0.6% (nominal)/1.2% real (like-for-like). Visa's expenditure index fell by around 2.5% in December versus a year earlier while John Lewis sales were up to a similar degree. Measures of footfall were down noticeably. Individual retailers have reported varied success, with some retailers performing better than expected (Next, for example) and some worse (Debenhams).

Technicals back the bullish trend. Benefits from broad USD weakness. Eyes on UK retail sales and US consumer sentiment. The GBP/USD pair exten

Technicals back the bullish trend. Benefits from broad USD weakness. Eyes on UK retail sales and US consumer sentiment. The GBP/USD pair extends its overnight side trend into Asia, as the bulls consolidate more-than 1 big figure recovery witnessed a day before, awaiting fresh impetus from the upcoming UK retail sales release due at 0930 GMT.GBP/USD headed to 1.4000Thursday’s rebound in Cable was mainly driven by the renewed sell-off seen in the US dollar versus its main competitors, despite the rise in Treasury yields, which is on the back of rising March Fed rate hike bets and expectations of an uptick in the US CPI amid a rally in oil prices. Moreover, optimistic comments made by the UK PM May on the Brexit issue, following her meeting with the French President Macron, also helped the pound stage a solid comeback. Theresa May noted that Brexit will never impact the bilateral French-UK relationship. However, it remains to be seen if the spot can extend the recovery mode, as markets are expecting the UK retail sales to drop sharply in December while the US dollar could revert to the green zone, in reaction to the reports that the US House passed the stopgap government funding bill. Later on Friday, “The UK is set to release December Retail Sales this Friday, expected down 0.6% monthly basis, while the annual figure is seen coming in at 3.0% from the previous 1.6%,” according to FXStreet’s Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik. Also, of relevance remains the US prelim UoM consumer sentiment data and Fedspeaks due on the cards in the NA session.GBP/USD Technical LevelsBednarik added: “The pair maintains its positive stance according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as it stands firmly above a bullish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator extends its advance within positive territory, and the RSI indicator consolidates around 67. The pair still has room to extend its gains up to the critical 1.4000 figure, particularly if Friday UK's data beat expectations. Support levels: 1.3840 1.3800 1.3770. Resistance levels: 1.3900 1.3945 1.3990.”

For the week, the Chinese central bank (PBOC) injected a net of CNY 590 bn via Open Market Operations (OMOs) versus net CNY 180bn injection seen in th

For the week, the Chinese central bank (PBOC) injected a net of CNY 590 bn via Open Market Operations (OMOs) versus net CNY 180bn injection seen in the previous week.

The NZD/USD is struggling to rise above 0.76 in a convincing manner for the fifth straight session. Having rallied 7.67 percent from the November low

Kiwi struggles to cut through offers around 0.76. Overbought technical conditions at play? Focus on US-NZ yield spread and US government shutdown. The NZD/USD is struggling to rise above 0.76 in a convincing manner for the fifth straight session. Having rallied 7.67 percent from the November low of 0.6780, the pair looks overbought as per daily RSI. Still, the downside has been capped near 0.7230 this week, courtesy of broad-based US dollar weakness. The story has not changed much this Friday. The US 10-year treasury yield rose above 2.63 percent; the highest level since December 2016. Still, the USD has failed to catch a bid. Also, keeping USD no the back foot are fears of a US government shutdown. Earlier today, the US House of Representatives passed a bill to fund government operations through Feb. 16. However, the bill still needs an approval by the Senate, where it faces an uncertain future. That said, there is always a risk of market attention shifting back to rising yields, in which case, NZD/USD could see a deeper pullback.NZD/USD Technical LevelsA move above 0.7331 (Jan. 17 high) would open up upside towards 0.7364 (Sep. 21 high) and 0.7434 (Sep. 20 high). On the downside, support is seen at 0.7235 (Jan. 17 low) ahead of 0.72 (zero levels) and 0.7131 (Aug. 31 low).

Chinese Yuan continues its ascent against the US dollar as investors ignore rising treasury yields.  As per Bloomberg report, Yuan (CNY) rose above 6

Chinese Yuan continues its ascent against the US dollar as investors ignore rising treasury yields.  As per Bloomberg report, Yuan (CNY) rose above 6.4 USD today; its highest level since December 2014. 

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) made no changes to the amounts of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases today. BoJ bought: 410 Bn yen of 5 - 10 year.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) made no changes to the amounts of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases today.BoJ bought:410 Bn yen of 5 - 10 year. 190 Bn of 10 - 25 year. 80 Bn 25+ year.

Following the passage of the stopgap government funding bill by the house last hours, the upper house (senate) plans first procedural vote on stopgap

Following the passage of the stopgap government funding bill by the house last hours, the upper house (senate) plans first procedural vote on stopgap US government funding bill on Thursday night.

China's top state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is out with its projections of the Chinese economic growth for this y

China's top state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is out with its projections of the Chinese economic growth for this year. The NDRC noted that China’s GDP is expected to grow by 6.5%-6.8% y/y in 2018.

The yield on the US 10-year treasury note rose to 2.637 percent; the highest level since December 2016. Also, the yield is trading just short of 2.65

US 10-year treasury yield clocks 13-month high. Trades just shy of the highest level since 2014. The yield on the US 10-year treasury note rose to 2.637 percent; the highest level since December 2016. Also, the yield is trading just short of 2.655 percent - high seen in September 2014. The rise in the long end yield lifted the 10-y-2yr spread to 58 basis points. The spread bottomed out at 49 basis points on Jan. 4. The steepening of the yield curve could put a bid under the US dollar. Further, it would be interesting to see whether equity markets react negatively to 10-year yield moving above 2.63 percent.     

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.4169 vs. previous day's fix of 6.4401

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.4169 vs. previous day's fix of 6.4401

Currently, AUD/USD is holding just above 0.80 levels, having clocked a high of 0.8020 earlier today. The currency pair looks set to end higher for th

AUD/USD trades above 0.80 in Asia. Pair witnessing longest winning streak since July 2016. Focus on US government funding bill. Currently, AUD/USD is holding just above 0.80 levels, having clocked a high of 0.8020 earlier today. The currency pair looks set to end higher for the sixth straight week; its longest winning streak since July 2016. That said, the overbought nature of the Aussie dollar and the rise in the US Treasury yield above 2.6 percent could cap further gains. Bond King, Jeff Gundlach warned earlier this month that equity markets could come under pressure if the yield rises above 2.63 percent. Serious risk aversion in equities could kill Fed rate hike bets and hurt the US dollar.  Focus on US government billUS House passed the stopgap funding bill that funds the government into mid-February. The bill now heads to the Senate, where Republicans could have a difficult time getting the bill passed. Rumors are doing the rounds that the Senate may hold an initial test on the floor tonight and that could kill the stopgap bill.AUD/USD Technical LevelsJim Langlands from FXCharts writes, " The momentum indicators do generally point higher and a retest of yesterday’s 0.8022 may be on the cards, above which would allow 0.8035/0.8055. There is no data due today, so a rangebound session near 0.8000 looks more likely."  

The news is crossing the wires via Bloomberg that US House has voted to pass stopgap funding bill that funds the government into mid-February.  The b

The news is crossing the wires via Bloomberg that US House has voted to pass stopgap funding bill that funds the government into mid-February.  The bill now goes to the upper house (Senate) for a vote. 

As per Wall Street Journal (WSJ), San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams is being considered for the post of Vice Chair of the Fed

As per Wall Street Journal (WSJ), San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams is being considered for the post of Vice Chair of the Fed Board in Washington. The Wall Street Journal said it was unclear whether Williams is a front-runner. Williams has reportedly said that it would be a “great honour” to serve as Vice Chair under Powell's leadership. 

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Our model1 projects the fix to be 237 pips lower than t

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 237 pips lower than the previous fix (6.4164 from 6.4401) and 91 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.4255. The basket implied change is 111 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.4144 from 6.4255)."

USD/JPY hit a high of 111.48 before a low of 111.69 was scored overnight. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.91, down -0.14% on the day, having post

USD/JPY: bulls denied.USD/JPY: dollar gets not let up.USD/JPY hit a high of 111.48 before a low of 111.69 was scored overnight. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 110.91, down -0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 111.14 and low at 110.89. USD/JPY fell back into the hand's of the bears overnight and the previous highs of 111.48 were left for dust as the market refuses to give the dollar a break.  The US10yr yields actually made fresh 10-month highs to 2.63% although the DXY ranged between 90.4080-90.9830 and was closing in on the 90.5260 mark for the close.Congress to pass a temporary funding extension?There was an air of caution in NY as investors waited to see if Congress could pass a temporary funding extension and avoid a partial shutdown on Friday while the Democrats claim that they could block any such bill. In recent wires, the US House majority leader McCarthy was cloamed to have been saying, "we're in very good shape" while the Conservative Republicans will back funding bill to avert a government shutdown, according to CNN.USD/JPY levelsUSDJPY: A neutral stance is requiredValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that, technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the pair continues developing below its 100 and 200 SMAs: "Technical indicators have managed to bounce modestly after reaching their mid-lines, suggesting a limited potential upward despite the latest recovery. Renewed selling pressure below the mentioned low, should open doors for a steeper slide towards the 109.80 region, the next strong static support area," Valeria added.

CNN reports quotes the conservative House Freedom Caucus as saying that majority of its members will support a stopgap funding bill to avoid a governm

CNN reports quotes the conservative House Freedom Caucus as saying that majority of its members will support a stopgap funding bill to avoid a government shutdown.  So the GOP may have enough support to send the bill (that funds the government into mid-February) to Senate.  That said, it is not clear whether the Senate would also be able to pass a spending bill ahead of Friday midnight.   

Analysts at Westpac explained that the USD has started the year right where it left 2017 – on a strong depreciation path.  Key Quotes: "We expected

Analysts at Westpac explained that the USD has started the year right where it left 2017 – on a strong depreciation path. Key Quotes:"We expected more fertile conditions for the USD to prevail, notably, for yield spreads to continue to broadly trend in the USD’s favour as tax cuts and easy financial conditions underwrite solid near term growth outcomes. Base effects from last year’s low US inflation prints start to drop out of the annual calculations from March 2018 onward too. That, along with upcoming Italian elections in March should have provided the USD with more support at the start of the year. Thereafter our baseline scenario has been for a weaker USD in 2018H2. By mid-2018 mid-term US election fever will take hold and markets will be confronted by the risk of a Democrat party sweep of Congress and some clawing back of Trump’s pro-growth agenda. At this point the Fed will be confronted with a major challenge too - a probable ongoing shortfall in inflation at a time when Fed Funds will have for all intent and purposes have reached “neutral” (currently estimated  at 0% for real Fed Funds). The USD may yet stabilise in Q1. The BoJ (23 Jan) could push back more forcefully against the hawkish read of their decision to cut long-term bond purchases while the ECB (25 Jan) could also push back against the hawkish read of last week’s ECB minutes. At this point some might reasonably ask whether “extreme undervaluation” could potentially save the day and provide some USD support too? The short answer is “no”. Slide one shows the DXY’s valuation against 2 and 10yr yield spreads. The USD is indeed “cheap” to yield spreads. Using five year rolling regressions the DXY is about 13% undervalued against 2yr spreads and 8% undervalued against 10yr spreads. But, that is not unprecedented. In 2005 the USD traded more than 20% cheap to yield spreads. Slide two shows the evolution of the broad USD TWI around the last five Fed tightening cycles. On average the USD has typically appreciated by about 8% two years into the last five Fed hike cycles. Against that the broad USD has depreciated by almost 2% in the two years since this tightening cycle began. The USD thus seems to be lagging trends that typically prevail during Fed tightening cycles. There is a major caveat however. As slide two shows the USD was exceptionally strong in the lead up to the first Fed hike in Dec 2015. In the two years into that first hike the broad USD TWI rose 18.2%. That is a substantially stronger appreciation profile than is typically seen going into a tightening cycle - over the last five cycles the broad USD rose a more “modest” 8% in the two year period going into the first hike. The USD’s underwhelming price action since hikes began may simply be payback for exceptional outperformance in the two years going into the tightening cycle. Adjusting for that the USD sits right in line with historical patterns around Fed tightenings. In short, neither undervaluation versus yield spreads nor comparisons with past Fed hike cycles suggest that the USD is at an extreme undervaluation yet."

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester has crossed the wirses and has said that the pace of rate hikes in 2018 should be similar to 2

Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester has crossed the wirses and has said that the pace of rate hikes in 2018 should be similar to 2017's.Key statements:Says rate hike path gives inflation time to rise, while avoiding build-up of risks. Sees unemployment falling below 4 pct this year, inflation rising to 2 pct in next one to two years. US tax cuts will add 0.25 to 0.5 pctge point to GDP growth this year and next, possibly more. Mester says difficult to estimate long-run impact on growth from tax changes. Says further US interest rate hikes in 2018 and 2019 'appropriate'. Pace of rate hikes should be similar to 2017, when Federal Reserve raised rates three times. Says she expects GDP growth of 2.5 pct this year.

Analysts at Westpac explained that China's GDP again came in above expectations in Q4, annual growth reported at 6.8% (market and WBC 6.7%), or 6.9% i

Analysts at Westpac explained that China's GDP again came in above expectations in Q4, annual growth reported at 6.8% (market and WBC 6.7%), or 6.9% in year-to-date terms.Key Quotes:"On a quarter by quarter basis, growth did slow in Q4 to 1.6%. However, that was not enough to offset Q2 and Q3’s strong gains, respectively 1.9% and 1.8%. Come 2018, growth is likely to sustain a pace similar to Q4 2017. The contributions to growth from investment and consumption in 2017 were broadly as we anticipated, consumption adding 4.1ppts in year-to-date terms and investment 2.2ppts – its weakest ever full-year outcome. The upside surprise came instead from net exports which recorded an outsized gain of 0.6ppts as global growth fanned demand for Chinese exports. This contribution was the strongest since Q1 2015 (1.3ppts) and three times the year-to-date contribution reported for the first 9 months of 2017, 0.2ppts. While the PMI’s correctly foretold of export’s strength, they overestimated momentum in the secondary sector overall. On both a real and nominal basis, annual growth for the sector decelerated modestly in Q4.  The cause of this downward ‘surprise’ was construction (which is not directly included in the PMIs). From the fixed asset investment data, a clear downtrend has been apparent throughout 2017, from around 9%yr at the beginning of the year to near 7%yr currently. A deceleration in residential construction has been a key factor here, but so has weakness in manufacturing and utilities. Investment in each of theses sectors has troughed, though the coming upcycle will be modest versus history owing much tighter credit conditions. If anecdotes are correct, then transport investment will come under pressure in 2018. The underlying cause of the investment downtrend discussed above is the central government’s tighter control of investment decisions across the nation. Their decision to not replenish their investment pipeline is also of note. As we have emphasised in our PMI release on a number of occasions, sub-par momentum in job and income creation has precluded an acceleration in wholesale and retail sector spending. This factor is likely to become more prominent in 2018, when we expect growth to decelerate to around 6.2%yr."

Analysts at Scotiabank explained that the BoC's  neutral hike was delivered as policymakers struck a balanced tone. Key Quotes: "...acknowledging th

Analysts at Scotiabank explained that the BoC's  neutral hike was delivered as policymakers struck a balanced tone.Key Quotes:"...acknowledging the ongoing improvement in data while highlighting concerns surrounding NAFTA and uncertainties relating to potential growth and wages." "Rate expectations remain unchanged with OIS pricing in roughly 60bpts of tightening for the remainder of the year." "The 2Y spread remains elevated however, and USD/CAD is trading well below levels implied by our fair value estimates (~1.2750-1.2900)." "Near-term risk is limited ahead of Friday’s manufacturing data, with retail sales and CPI set to compete with next week’s NAFTA negotiations."

Analysts at ANZ explained that the ECB meeting next Thursday will be upon markets before they know it.  ECB vice president Constancio has said no upgr

Analysts at ANZ explained that the ECB meeting next Thursday will be upon markets before they know it.  ECB vice president Constancio has said no upgrade to forward guidance is expected.Key Quotes:"Draghi, being firmly in the dovish camp, is also likely to stress the commitment to full implementation of QE and possibly concern at “sudden” movements in the exchange rate. So EUR/USD is pausing for breath just now. However, overnight Coeure noted that the euro area is in expansion,  no longer ‘recovery’." "The ECB at present still has its foot fairly flat to the floor, which is helping keep US long-end bond yields down (although they are attempting to push higher) – and by association, New Zealand’s. The ECB arguably warrants closer watching than the Fed at present. While the Fed is further along the tightening curve, it is priced in." "The ECB would seem to have greater potential to give bond markets an unwelcome surprise."