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शुक्रवार , जुलाई 10, 2020

Here is what you need to know for Friday the 10th July: The US dollar outperformed with relentlessly rising US COVID cases worrying investors to the p

Here is what you need to know for Friday the 10th July: The US dollar outperformed with relentlessly rising US COVID cases worrying investors to the point where the US benchmarks were mostly lower by the close of play. Election-year political uncertainty is also biting with the Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s financial records alarming investors. The US Supreme Court rejected President Trump’s claim for absolute immunity in shielding his corporate and personal tax returns. There were also trade war tensions coming back to the fore which had supported the greenback since 2018 since the Trump administration declared a war on trade with China.  Economic releases were again scarce. Initial claims were better than expected US jobless claims were more encouraging than expected, but only on the surface. The job market is a deep-rooted problem for the US which path of least resistance is worrying. Initial claims were better than expected falling 99k in the week ended 4 July to 1.314k vs expectations of 1.375k. Encouragingly, continuing claims fell 700k to 18.06m suggesting return to work is continuing despite the recent rise in COVID-19 cases. However, the number of people claiming benefits under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program has risen exponentially, and this is something that will be amplified in data to come within extreme stresses in the US jobs market. Markets focus on high-frequency data and daily COVID-19 news Evidence is mounting that the economic recovery in key metropolitan areas is stalling pertaining to the spread of the virus. Wall Street Close: NASDAQ outpaces its comrades againHowever, that didn't stop the US benchmarks to rebound off the lows and from the NASDAQ making record highs, again – markets are still being patient, banking on economic recovery. COVID-19 update: Second waves yet to cause market distressThe next stage of US fiscal stimulus is expected to be announced July 20-31 according to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve will do whatever it is required. Forex notesEUR: EUR/USD uptrend intact unless above 30-day moving average support at 1.1257 and until the dollar index overcomes resistance at 97.09.GBP: Risk aversion weighed on GBP/USD’s July rise at 1.2668  with bears testing bull's commitments at the confluence of the upper 21-day Bolli, 200-DMA.JPY: USD/JPY lost its footing although better plays were in the crosses as yen picked up a safe haven bid. 107.10 supports vs the greenback. A break here opens risk towards 106.70, the weekly Kijun and monthly Tankan.AUD: Bears held up at the rising trendline with price pricing below 0.7000. Hourly support was near 0.6958 at trendline support. Bulls look for sturdy equity prices, but further tests of support likely and sustain breakout opens risk to 0.6940 and 0.6897 38.2% and 61.8% respective Fib retracements. Eyes also on copper as gains erode while yen and greenback are bought, weighing on the near-term outlook.  Commodities: WTI and Brent retreated, weighed by both technicals and by US COVID-19 contagion as well as dim prospects for travel. Oil: WTI tumbles more than 3%, remains under $40 at one-week lowsGold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bears looking for some downside below $1,800 to 200-hour MALooking ahead, the calendar is light until the U.S retail sales on Thursday.

Reuters reported on the Telegraphs news that the British government has turned down an opportunity to join a European Union coronavirus "scheme" after

Reuters reported on the Telegraphs news that the British government has turned down an opportunity to join a European Union coronavirus "scheme" after ministers expressed concern over "costly delays". The European Commission is expected to be notified on Friday, the report said. Meanwhile, COVID-19 update: Second waves yet to cause market distress. Market implications For Thursday, there was a mix of sentiment and the NASDAQ made record highs, again. More on this here: Wall Street Close: NASDAQ outpaces its comrades again.GBP/USD Price Analysis: If the price falls further there is a good support at 1.2533     

The US COVID-19 situation is spiralling out of control. Yesterday the number of new infections in the US exceeded 60K- a new one-day record. So far it

COVID-19 cases spiralling out of control, but markets braced for impact. Bulls continue to support risk assets, for the time being, while the US looks to another shutdown.The US COVID-19 situation is spiralling out of control. Yesterday the number of new infections in the US exceeded 60K- a new one-day record. So far it has not disturbed the markets in a major way, but it is a very fragile and fluid situation. That said, it's not just in the US where cases are rising. States and cities in Australia and Tokyo, where restrictive measures are returning, also set their daily records. Also, coronavirus cases rose by record 13,674 in South Africa, which is a huge number. The return of restrictions for economies could revive demand for the dollar as investors pull the plug on riskier asset classes.  On Thursday, the US virus cases rose 2%, beating the average daily increase. DC coronavirus statistics were in as 991 new deaths vs. 932 yesterday. California has its biggest 1-day jump in virus deaths, reporting 149 new deaths vs the 7-day average of 73 daily deaths. Arizona's cases climbed by 3.7% which equals its 7-day average. However, there were only 11,931 PCR tests in Arizona reported. Around 33% of those were positive though with 4057 new cases. For the eleventh day in a row, we have seen a record high of hospitalisation in Texas. Deaths in Texas also hit a record high, for the 3rd day running, with 105 added. New York has banned large events through until October. Fauci says states with major outbreaks should ‘seriously look at shutting down’ again Meanwhile, Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease official, is advising that some states seriously consider “shutting down” again if they are facing major resurgences of the virus — a warning that conflicts with President Trump’s push to reopen the country as quickly as possible, The Washington Post reported.  Fauci added Thursday that he hopes there’s not a need for new shutdowns, saying it “would not be viewed very, very favourably,” and urged states to pause their reopening process to slow the spread of the virus so that renewed shutdowns are not necessary. Market implications Outside the US, many large economies are witnessing improved business activity. This could mean that investors start to rethink the playbook and pull out from the US, with patience running out for the hunt for yield. Financial assets in improving countries are becoming more attractive and if their central banks take a pause in policy easing, then the US dollar could find itself at the mercy to flows back into opposing currencies.  Federal Reserve officials speaking earlier this week have shown signs that they are increasingly doubtful about the sustainability of the economic recovery.  So long that there is a willingness to further increase asset purchase programs on its balance sheet, then US stocks should find a softer landing, but that is not to say that investors will remain committed to them.  For Thursday, there was a mix of sentiment and the NASDAQ made record highs, again. More on this here: Wall Street Close: NASDAQ outpaces its comrades again \        

GBP/USD has held up better than most on Thursday as the greenback fights back. The market has been making higher highs and higher lows but the market

GBP/USD is trading just under flat on Thursday as cable holds up better than the rest.The chart stopped short of the 76.4% Fib retracement. GBP/USD 4-hour chart   GBP/USD has held up better than most on Thursday as the greenback fights back. The market has been making higher highs and higher lows but the market retraced just short of the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. If the price does pull back further the 50% Fib retracement looks firm. At the moment the engulfing candlestick pattern is indicating that the market could move lower. The Relative Strength Index has pulled away from the oversold level. The MACD signal lines have had a bearish crossover but they are above the mid-zone indicating the trend might not be over just yet. The histogram is still in the green but only marginally.  If the price does close near the current levels for the daily candle, it would be a shooting star candle which would be another bearish sign. A good bearish indication would be a break of the ascending wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart. So technically the trend is still higher but there are some signs that the price could correct further. Additional levels  
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