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सोमवार , अप्रेल 6, 2020

WTI is consolidating the advanced it made in the last three sessions as the market is digesting the Trump tweet suggesting that a Saudi-Russian deal has been

Oil consolidates last week’s gains while trading below the 28.00 handle. Support is seen near 24.00 and 22.00 levels.   WTI daily chart   WTI is consolidating the advanced it made in the last three sessions as the market is digesting the Trump tweet suggesting that a Saudi-Russian deal has been made.    WTI four-hour chart   After regaining some poise last week, crude oil is consolidating the gains below 28.00 resistance. In the absence of a break above this level, WTI is set to resume the bear trend as the market is trading below the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart but above the 50 and 100 ones. Support can be seen near 24.00 and 22.00 levels on the way down.    Additional key levels  

There are no ongoing talks with oil companies in Norway about production cuts, Norway's oil minister on Monday but reiterated that they were willing t

There are no ongoing talks with oil companies in Norway about production cuts, Norway's oil minister on Monday but reiterated that they were willing to make unilateral output cuts if other producers also agree to cut. "We will consider a unilateral cut in output if it contributes to our own resource management and economy," the minister further explained. "Weak oil price is very demanding for the industry." Market reaction Crude oil's reaction to these comments was relatively muted. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $26.87, erasing 6.7% on a daily basis.

Data released on Monday showed a significant decline in business confidence in Canada during March. Krishen Rangasamy, analysts at the National Bank o

Data released on Monday showed a significant decline in business confidence in Canada during March. Krishen Rangasamy, analysts at the National Bank of Canada warns the report was conducted between February 11th to March 6th, before the coronavirus crisis intensified.  Key Quotes: “Business confidence not surprisingly took a beating in the first quarter. The aggregate index of the Bank of Canada’s BusinessOutlook Survey sank to -0.68 in Q1, the lowest in year. Note that the survey was conducted between February 11th and March 6th, i.e. before coronavirus-related concerns had intensified. “Capacity pressures decreased slightly, with just 46% of respondents stating either some or significant difficulty in meeting an unexpected increase in demand. Credit conditions eased slightly in general, although firms in the energy sector noted tighter non-price conditions.” “Business sentiment was already on its way down before the coronavirus caused a sharp economic downturn. Watch for the next survey, i.e Q2 to show a historic drop in the BoC aggregate index to reflect the current Canadian recession.”
 

The Mexican peso opened the week falling across the board following Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announcements during the week

Mexican peso turned positive versus the US dollar and recovered from all-time lows. USD/MXN falls to 24.72 during the American session, after reaching 25.77.The Mexican peso opened the week falling across the board following Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) announcements during the weekend. The USD/MXN jumped to 25.77, hitting a new record high. Over the last hours, the Mexican peso recovered ground and is now in positive territory versus the greenback.  AMLO mentioned several public works projects and low-interest loans to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus on the economy. He discharged more stimulus, or lower taxes and announced more fiscal relief to Pemex. His speech did not boost confidence and weighed on MXN.  Risk appetite on Monday limited the rally of USD/MXN and favoured the reversal. From the peak above 25.70 during the Asian session, the pair dropped 4% to 24.74. As of writing, trades at 24.75 with the bearish momentum intact.  In Wall Street, equity prices are sharply higher. The Dow Jones gains 5.04% and the Nasdaq 4.92%. US bond yields are up too, with the 10-year at 0.66%, the highest since March 31. Some optimism that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic could soon be over boosted market sentiment.  USD/MXN Technical levels  

EUR/USD is under pressure below the 1.0900 figure while trading below the main DMA (daily simple moving average) as DXY (US dollar index) is consolidating gai

EUR/USD is consolidating losses near the 1.0800 handle.The level to beat for bears is the 1.0776 support.    EUR/USD daily chart    EUR/USD is under pressure below the 1.0900 figure while trading below the main DMA (daily simple moving average) as DXY (US dollar index) is consolidating gains this Monday.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD is consolidating losses while trading above the 1.0800 handle and under its main SMAs on the four-hour chart suggesting negative momentum in the medium term as sellers are looking for a break below the 1.0776 level which could introduce scope for further EUR/USD weakness towards the 1.0720 and 1.0675 levels on the way down while resistance might be seen near the 1.0843, 1.0880 and 1.0915 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      Resistance: 1.0843, 1.0880, 1.0915Support: 1.0776, 1.0720, 1.0675    Additional key levels  

There is a considerable deterioration in households' expectations regarding their labor market and financial situation in March across all age, educat

There is a considerable deterioration in households' expectations regarding their labor market and financial situation in March across all age, education, and income groups, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Survey of Consumer Expectations. Key takeaways "The perceived probability of losing one's job reached 18.5%, its highest level since the inception of the survey in June 2013." "The expected growth in households' income and spending fell sharply and the perceived availability of credit worsened." "The perceived risk of missing future debt payments increased substantially." "Median inflation expectations remained stable at the one-year horizon at 2.5% and decreased at the three-year horizon from 2.6% to 2.4%." "The dispersion in inflation expectations across respondents and the reported inflation uncertainty increased at both horizons." "Median one-year ahead expected change in home prices reached a new series' low at 1.3%." Risk rally continues Major equity indexes in the US paid little to no mind to these remarks and were all up around 4.7% on a daily basis at the time of press.

"The Trump administration is being guided by the facts as it considers how best to re-open the US economy," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow

"The Trump administration is being guided by the facts as it considers how best to re-open the US economy," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reported on Monday, per Reuters. Kudlow further noted that he was hoping to get a good "economic snapback" in four to eight weeks, "Coronavirus testing surveillance is vital to determine when to re-open the economy," he added.  Market reaction Risk-on flows continue to dominate financial markets on Monday and these comments don't seem to be having a significant on the risk sentiment. As of writing, Wall Street's three main indexes were all up more than 4% on a daily basis.

USD/JPY is trading above the main SMAs as the market is attempting to stabilize above the 107.00 handle amid better market mood with major stock indices up at

USD/JPY is stabilizing above the 107.00 handle. The level to beat for buyers is the 110.00 resistance.  USD/JPY daily chart   USD/JPY is trading above the main SMAs as the market is attempting to stabilize above the 107.00 handle amid better market mood with major stock indices up at the start of the new week.    USD/JPY four-hour chart   USD/JPY is trading above the 108.70 support and the main SMAs on the four-hour chart as bulls are looking for a continuation up en route to the 110.00, 111.00 and 111.70 resistance levels on the way up. Support can be expected near the 108.70, 108.00 and 107.00 levels.    Additional key levels  

More growth-stabilising measures are likely to be implemented in India, according to economists at Standard Chartered Bank. USD/INR is trading at 76.2

More growth-stabilising measures are likely to be implemented in India, according to economists at Standard Chartered Bank. USD/INR is trading at 76.2035. Key quotes “We believe further fiscal support is needed to stabilise India’s economy, despite constrained fiscal space. We expect GDP growth to slow to a three-decade low of 2.7% for FY21.” “We estimate that the combined (central plus state) fiscal deficit target will be 9.8% of GDP in FY21, versus the budgeted 6.4% of GDP.” “The RBI is likely to finance fiscal deficit slippage by conducting more open market operations (OMOs), the purchase of Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) in the secondary market.”  

The business sentiment in Canada in the first quarter of the year softened in most regions even before concerns over the COVID-19 intensified, the Ban

The business sentiment in Canada in the first quarter of the year softened in most regions even before concerns over the COVID-19 intensified, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest Business Outlook Survey (BoS) showed on Monday. The BoC further noted that the confidence deteriorated most in energy-producing regions. Key takeaways "BoC BoS survey interviews were conducted before concerns around COVID-19 intensified; two smaller phone surveys were completed more recently to provide a picture of the impact of the COVID-19 shock and low oil prices on firms." "BoC survey on COVID-19 shock reports a collapse in sales in accommodation, food services and recreation industries; non-food retailers reported a dramatic drop in foot traffic, scaling down operations, but some pivoting to less-developed lines." "Separate BoC survey on COVID-19 shock shows grocery retailers and related transportation services note sales had reached unprecedented levels." "Separate BoC survey on COVID-19 shock shows firms taking a wait-and-see approach on capital expenditures; almost all firms in tourism and food-service cutting back on renovations and purchases of machinery and equipment etc. To preserve cash." Market reaction The USD/CAD largely ignored these comments and was last seen trading at 1.4128, erasing 0.52% on a daily basis.

The small business loans under the paycheck protection program reached $38 billion as of Monday morning with 130,000 borrowers, White House economic a

The small business loans under the paycheck protection program reached $38 billion as of Monday morning with 130,000 borrowers, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC on Monday.  "Coronavirus-related US Treasury bond is a great idea," Kudlow added and argued that this was the right time to sell bonds to raise cash for the coronavirus relief efforts.  Market reaction Major equity indexes in the US post decisive gains on Monday. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both up around 4.8% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite was adding 4.4%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 100.70.

The USD/CHF pair built on last week's goodish positive move of around 300 pips and continued gaining traction for the sixth straight session on Monday

USD/CHF traded with a positive bias for the sixth consecutive session on Monday.Bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the very important 200-DMA.The USD/CHF pair built on last week's goodish positive move of around 300 pips and continued gaining traction for the sixth straight session on Monday. The pair climbed to near two-week tops in the last hour, with bulls now looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.9800 round-figure mark. The mentioned handle nears the very important 200-day SMA, around the 0.9810 region, which if cleared might be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have just started moving into the positive territory and further reinforce prospects for an extension of the positive move. Hence, some follow-through strength, towards challenging a near one-year-old descending trend-line resistance near the 0.9900 mark, now looks a distinct possibility. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate some fresh bullish positions and should remain limited near the 0.9715-10 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some aggressive technical selling and drag the pair further towards its next support near the 0.9625 region. USD/CHF daily chart Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD is quite sensitive to the relative growth outlook as the pair holds a modest discount on this momentum index, according to economists at TD Se

EUR/USD is quite sensitive to the relative growth outlook as the pair holds a modest discount on this momentum index, according to economists at TD Securities. Key quotes “A stalwart of support for the EUR has been the current account surplus. With supply chains frozen, that pillar of support will erode. Fiscal meant to cushion the blow. “We expect steeper EZ growth downgrades in the coming months, which should support our call that EUR/USD tests the 1.05 level in Q2.”  

Within the G10, the CAD is uniquely positioned to suffer. In addition to the sudden stop nature of global economic activity, the loonie suffers from t

Within the G10, the CAD is uniquely positioned to suffer. In addition to the sudden stop nature of global economic activity, the loonie suffers from the collapse of oil prices, per TD Securities. Key quotes “While the oil price matters for CAD, it is primarily knock-on effects of the drop in commodity prices that is problematic. This will acutely weigh on business investment, which has not recovered since the 2014/15 oil collapse.” “Canada has long suffered from a productivity puzzle, which has seen inferior growth relative to the USD. A weak CAD is needed now more than ever as it is unclear at this time how productivity will normalize as the viral outbreak evolves.” “A move to 1.50 in USD/CAD is inevitable.”  

The total number of confirmed coronavirus infections in Spain rose to 135,032 from 130,759, the country's health ministry reported on Monday, per Reut

The total number of confirmed coronavirus infections in Spain rose to 135,032 from 130,759, the country's health ministry reported on Monday, per Reuters. The death toll increased by 637 to 13,055 as of Monday morning to register a slowdown in the pace of new deaths for the fourth straight day. Market reaction Spain's IBEX 35 Index was last seen adding 4% on a daily basis at 6,844.10 points. On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair was down 0.11% on the day at 1.0796.

Macro drivers point to more downside in the weeks ahead. Analysts at TD Securities like parity in the AUD/NZD cross. Key quotes “We expect a move to 1

Macro drivers point to more downside in the weeks ahead. Analysts at TD Securities like parity in the AUD/NZD cross. Key quotes “We expect a move to 1.00 in AUD/NZD over the coming weeks. We also note that NZD short positioning is slightly more stretched than AUD.” “The relative MRSI weights underscore another push lower in the cross. Most notably, the factors have worked against AUD over the past month, reflecting relative growth and inflation downgrades.”  

Gold built on its goodish intraday positive move and climbed to near four-week tops, around the $1648-50 region during the early North-American sessio

Gold continued scaling higher through the early North-American session on Monday.Bulls seemed rather unaffected by a sharp turnaround in the global risk sentiment.Surging US bond yields underpinned the USD, albeit did little to hinder the momentum.Gold built on its goodish intraday positive move and climbed to near four-week tops, around the $1648-50 region during the early North-American session. Following the previous session's subdued trading action, the precious metal regained traction on the day of a new trading week and the uptick seemed rather unaffected by a combination of negative factors. Bulls shrugged off a solid recovery in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by strong gains in the equity markets, instead took cues from concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The risk-on mood was further reinforced by surging US Treasury bond yields, which underpinned the US dollar demand, albeit did little to dampen the bullish tone surrounding the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the fact that the commodity on Friday found acceptance above a one-month-old descending trend-line, the move up could be solely attributed to some follow-through technical buying. Moreover, the price action also seems to indicate that investors are still playing safe amid expectations that the worst may not be over yet, which supports prospects for an extension of the bullish move. Technical levels to watch  

Assessing the United States' policy response to the coronavirus outbreak, "the US fiscal strength will deteriorate faster than expected, driven by muc

Assessing the United States' policy response to the coronavirus outbreak, "the US fiscal strength will deteriorate faster than expected, driven by much larger fiscal deficits and weaker growth," Moody’s Investors Services said on Monday. "Although Moody's expects these measures to help limit the depth of the economic shock, downside risks to growth are high, due to potentially higher rates of unemployment and business closures," Moody's added in its report. "As a result of the very large increase in fiscal stimulus spending and likely marked decline in revenues due to the economic contraction and surge in unemployment, we expect the 2020 federal fiscal deficit to reach nearly 15% of GDP in 2020, from 4.6% in 2019." Market reaction Wall Street's main indexes continue to push higher on Monday despite Moody's gloomy outlook. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 4.75% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were adding 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively.

The better news flow over the weekend has seen the yellow metal continue its strength above $1600/oz and move safely away from CTA selling triggers fo

The better news flow over the weekend has seen the yellow metal continue its strength above $1600/oz and move safely away from CTA selling triggers for now, per TD Securities. Key quotes “We're not out of the woods just yet should panic reemerge and the highly deflationary impulse from containment effort send real rates higher.” "Looking forward on the horizon, we think the set-up for a multi-year bull market is being cemented as the market is awash with both monetary and fiscal stimulus while rates are at the zero bound, which suggests investors will continue to seek gold's warm embrace as real global rates become entrenched in negative territory.”  

The better mood in the risk complex and the recent move from the PBoC on rates have been bolstering the renewed and strong upside bias in AUD/USD to t

AUD/USD trades in 2-day highs just below the 0.61 mark.Broad-based risk appetite sustains the AUD momentum.RBA is expected to keep rates on hold on Tuesday.The better mood in the risk complex and the recent move from the PBoC on rates have been bolstering the renewed and strong upside bias in AUD/USD to the boundaries of the 0.6100 mark. AUD/USD run out of steam below 0.6100 The Aussie dollar has started the week on a positive footing, leaving behind four consecutive sessions with losses and resuming the upside to the vicinity of the key barrier at 0.6100 the figure, or 2-day peaks. AUD has regained the smile on Monday after the PBoC reduced once again the RRR, injecting extra stimulus into the system in order to help the economy to recover from the impact of the COVID-19. In addition, the generalized upbeat mood surrounding the riskier assets is lending extra legs to AUD, which is now targeting last week’s tops above 0.6200 the figure despite the firm demand for the greenback. Later in the week, the RBA is seen leaving the overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 0.25% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. Further data releases this week include Trade Balance figures (also on Tuesday), Home Loans (Wednesday) and the RBA’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) (Thursday). AUD/USD levels to watch At the moment the pair is gaining 1.39% at 0.6073 and a breakout of 0.6085 (high Apr.6) would aim for 0.6213 (high Mar.31) and finally 0.6458 (55-day SMA). On the downside, the initial support lines up at 0.5980 (weekly low Apr.3) seconded by 0.5506 (2020 low Mar.19) and then 0.5402 (monthly low Oct. 2002).

Risk markets are enjoying some recovery this morning but, as expected, the balance of risks have been to the downside for crude oil, strategists at TD

Risk markets are enjoying some recovery this morning but, as expected, the balance of risks have been to the downside for crude oil, strategists at TD Securities report. Key quotes “The Monday global OPEC+ meeting was too optimistic for the group to reach a negotiated agreement, and the meeting has been pushed to Thursday.”  “Prices are still holding relatively firm as optimism is high that an eventual deal will be struck, with many referencing the 10m bpd figure.” “In our view, a double-digit cut is only plausible should the United States participate in the cuts, which at this point, seems to have a high hurdle for success as President Trump's communications suggest the country is not ready to commit to such an agreement. “With negotiations ongoing, two-way risks remain particularly high. Nonetheless, the longer it takes to come to an agreement the more inventories swell and the more detrimental the demand shock will prove to be, which suggests even a large cut will not be enough to offset the shock, at least in the near-term.”  

The S&P 500 gaps up however the market remains vulnerable below the 2600/2700 resistance zone as the new week is kicking off. The rebound at the end of March

S&P 500 gaps up to the 2600 level as the week is kicking off. S&P 500 remains vulnerable below the 2600/2700 resistance zone.    S&P 500 daily chart   The S&P 500 gaps up however the market remains vulnerable below the 2600/2700 resistance zone as the new week is kicking off. The rebound at the end of March might be categorized as a dead-cat bounce as bears could come back and drive the index to the 2300 and 2200 levels on the way down while resistance could emerge near the 2600/2700 levels.    Additional key levels   

As signalled by the upbeat performance of major Asian and European equity indexes, Wall Street's main indexes started the week on a strong footing boo

CBOE Volatility Index erases nearly 5% on Monday.All major S&P 500 sectors trade in positive territory. As signalled by the upbeat performance of major Asian and European equity indexes, Wall Street's main indexes started the week on a strong footing boosted by the upbeat market mood. At the moment, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, is down nearly 5% to reflect the risk-on market environment. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both up 3.7% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite was adding 3.6%. All major sectors of the S&P 500 are trading in the positive territory with the Materials Index and the Industrial Index leading the charge with daily gains of more than 5%. On the other hand, the Energy ındex and the Consumer Staples Index are both around 1.3% as the underperformers.

The ECB is more likely than not to loosen monetary policy via further unconventional measures amid the likelihood of deep recessions. That would, in t

The ECB is more likely than not to loosen monetary policy via further unconventional measures amid the likelihood of deep recessions. That would, in theory, weigh on the euro, according to economists at the National Bank of Canada. Key quotes “Already battered by prospects of a deep eurozone recession, the euro has room to fall further. The ECB will pull all the stops to cushion the blow by delving deeper in unconventional policies.”  “Political backlash from the European Union’s apparent mishandling of the coronavirus crisis in places like Italy, which is fomenting talk of a potential break-up of the union, won’t help the common currency either.”  “We continue to expect EUR/USD to drop to 1.03 this year.”  

FX markets may return their focus to Europe this week. Analysts at TD Securities think the recent pullback in EUR/GBP looks ripe for a reversal higher

FX markets may return their focus to Europe this week. Analysts at TD Securities think the recent pullback in EUR/GBP looks ripe for a reversal higher as a result.  Key quotes “On Tuesday, finance ministers from across the euro area will meet to discuss a package to help countries hit particularly hard by the crisis. This package now looks very likely to get approval.” “With the Prime Minister now in the hospital, the market may be starting to sense a leadership vacuum is brewing on Downing Street. This could take sterling with it.” “The end-June Brexit extension deadline continues to inch closer, providing an unnecessary and unwelcome distraction at a time of national emergency.” “We have entered a long EUR/GBP position at 0.8785. Against a stop at 0.8605, we think 0.8740 should provide a primary backstop for a potential move higher this week.”  

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assessed the recent decision by the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to revise down the

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assessed the recent decision by the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to revise down the GDP figures for the current year. Key Quotes “Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) projects the 2020 GDP outlook between a range of -2.0% to +0.5% (UOB 2020f: -3.5%; 2019: +4.3%). This is markedly lower compared to the revised Ministry of Finance’s (MOF) forecast of an expansion of 3.2%- 4.2% as the global economy is now projected to register a negative growth this year with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and various containment measures that would weigh significantly on growth prospects.” “The 2020 stimulus measures that were announced by the government are expected to add 2.8% pts to GDP, of which 1.0% pts is from the continuation of MYR15bn worth of mega infrastructure projects. The policy measures will help mitigate the severe impact of COVID19and avert a sharper contraction in economic activity in 2020.” “Headline inflation is projected between -1.5% to +0.5% in 2020 (2019: +0.7%) amid weaker global oil prices and subdued demand. BNM underscores that they have a range of tools to ensure monetary and financial stability including monetary policy, macro and micro-prudential policy and supervisory oversight. We have factored in additional Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) cuts of 50bps to 2.00% as we anticipate broader and intensified weakness in 2Q20 with potential spill overs to 3Q20.”

The Canadian dollar lost 6% against the USD in March, its worst monthly performance in five years. Granted, the economy is now in recession and GDP gr

The Canadian dollar lost 6% against the USD in March, its worst monthly performance in five years. Granted, the economy is now in recession and GDP growth this year is set to be the worst ever recorded, according to economists at the National Bank of Canada. Key quotes “The downgrade to our 2020 forecasts for world GDP growth and OPEC/Russia price war prompted us to lower our projections for oil prices. WTI oil is now expected to average around $28/barrel this year.” “Lower oil prices translate to a lower path for the Canadian dollar than anticipated earlier. We now see USD/CAD heading past 1.45 by mid-year before moving back down later in the year as WTI recovers.”  

The GBP/USD pair struggled to find acceptance above 100-hour EMA and has now retreated around 30-35 pips from daily swing highs, near the 1.2325 regio

GBP/USD failed to capitalize on the intraday positive move beyond 100-hour EMA.The set-up warrants some caution before placing any aggressive directional bets.The GBP/USD pair struggled to find acceptance above 100-hour EMA and has now retreated around 30-35 pips from daily swing highs, near the 1.2325 region. This comes on the back of Friday's bearish break through the lower end of a one-week-old trading range and points to the emergence of some fresh selling pressure. Meanwhile, mixed technical indicators on hourly/daily charts haven’t been supportive of a firm near-term direction and warrant some caution for aggressive traders. Given that the pair has been attracting some dip-buying ahead of the 1.2200 mark, bearish bears are likely to wait for a convincing break below the mentioned handle. Below the mentioned handle, the pair might turn vulnerable and seems more likely to accelerate the slide further towards testing sub-1.2100 levels in the near-term. On the other hand, a sustained strength above the 1.2350-60 region might be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and prompt some short-covering move. The pair then might aim towards reclaiming the 1.2400 round-figure mark before eventually darting towards its next major hurdle near the 1.2475-80 supply zone. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

European investors have seen value in the pound this morning after it was sold off overnight with EUR/GBP pulling back to levels held around the Europ

European investors have seen value in the pound this morning after it was sold off overnight with  EUR/GBP pulling back to levels held around the European close on Friday, per Raobank. Key quotes “The UK GfK consumer confidence survey unsurprisingly showed a sharp fall. The headline figure for the final March reading was -34, down from a February reading of -9.” “Fears that this year’s virus-associated recession could be lengthened by the inability of the UK and the EU to sort out a trade deal before the start of 2021 could enhance downside potential for GBP.” “Tomorrow, there will be a call between Eurozone finance ministers.  A continued failure to compromise could widen the perceived cracks in the Eurozone and weigh on the EUR.” “While Eurozone politics could limit downside pressure for EUR/GBP in the coming weeks, we expect cable will remain soft.  We see scope for another dip to 1.19 on a 3-month view.”  

The EUR/USD pair has been unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily advance at around 1.0830, meeting sellers around it, FXStreet’s

The EUR/USD pair has been unable to surpass the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily advance at around 1.0830, meeting sellers around it, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports. Key quotes “The EUR/USD pair is bearish, according to the 4-hour chart, as moving averages accelerate south above the current level, while technical indicators gain bearish traction within negative levels.”  “The immediate support is the 1.0770 area, where the pair bottomed last Friday, with a break below the level exposing the yearly low at 1.0635.” “Support levels: 1.0770 1.0725  Resistance levels: 1.0830 1.0860”

The US Federal Reserve announced on Monday that it has temporarily lowered the community bank leverage ratio to 8%. "Under the interim final rules, th

The US Federal Reserve announced on Monday that it has temporarily lowered the community bank leverage ratio to 8%. "Under the interim final rules, the community bank leverage ratio will be 8 percent beginning in the second quarter and for the remainder of calendar year 2020, 8.5 percent for calendar year 2021, and 9 percent thereafter," the Fed explained in its press release." Market reaction The US Dollar Index edged slightly lower after this announcement and turned flat on the day near 100.70.

After a sharp selloff to 2009 lows, XAG/USD rebounded as the Fed announced no limit to its Quantitative Easing (QE) in response to the coronavirus crisis.

XAG/USD rebounded up sharply from the 2020 lows as the Federal Reserve announced the largest stimulus package in history.The level to beat for buyers is the 15.00 resistance.  Silver daily chart   After a sharp selloff to 2009 lows, XAG/USD rebounded as the Fed announced no limit to its Quantitative Easing (QE) in response to the coronavirus crisis.    Silver four-hour chart    Silver found support above the 14.00 level and the 50/100 SMAs on the four-hour chart as bulls want an extension up beyond the 15.00 figure en route to the 15.50 and 16.60 level while support could emerge near the 14.00, 13.50 and 13.00 levels.    Resistance: 15.00, 15.50, 16.60Support: 14.00, 13.50, 13.00    Additional key levels  

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on March 31st: Speculators added EUR gross longs for the third consecu

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on March 31st: Speculators added EUR gross longs for the third consecutive session during the week ended on March 31st, taking the net longs to the highest level since mid-June 2018. The positive figures from the region’s Current Account appears to be supporting the inflows into the single currency. Of note is that the percentage of net longs vs. open interest climbed to levels last seen nearly 2 years ago, opening the door to some correction in the short term.VIX (aka “the panic index”) net shorts receded to the lowest level since January 2019, as the initial panic over the impact of the coronavirus on he global economy seems to have subsided somewhat. Net longs in GBP dropped to just below 5K contracts, levels last seen in late November 2017, as gross longs have been retreating for the last five consecutive weeks. The looser monetary stance from the BoE in combination with the fragile current account position and unabated Brexit concerns seem to have been far too much for the sterling to cope with.

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.6%, below expectations (0.7%) in March

The GBP/JPY cross trimmed a part of its early strong gains and has now retreated around 70 pips from intraday swing highs, near mid-134.00s. The cross

GBP/JPY reversed a modest weekly bearish gap and bounced from a trading range support.A strong recovery in the global risk sentiment undermined the JPY and remained supportive.A sustained break through one-week-old trading range needed to confirm near-term direction.The GBP/JPY cross trimmed a part of its early strong gains and has now retreated around 70 pips from intraday swing highs, near mid-134.00s. The cross attracted some dip-buying near the 132.50 region – the lower end of a multi-day-old trading range – and quickly reversed a modest weekly bearish gap opening, led by the weekend news of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hospitalization. A sharp turnaround in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by strong gains in equity markets, undermined the Japanese yen's perceived safe-haven demand and turned out to be one of the key factors behind the pair's initial leg of the intraday positive move. Meanwhile, comments by the UK Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick, saying that he heard that Johnson is doing well, helped soothe fears of any impending political complications and eventually provided an additional boost to the British pound. The momentum seemed rather unaffected by the downward revision of the UK Construction PMI, which recorded the steeped decline since April 2009 and further illustrated the extent of economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The cross climbed to near one-week tops, albeit lacked any strong follow-through. The cross started losing momentum after the UK PM spokesman said that Johnson remains under observation in the hospital as symptoms have remained persistent. Even from a technical perspective, the cross remains well within a broader trading range held over the past one week or so. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break through in either direction before positioning for the pair's near-term trajectory. Technical levels to watch  

There will not be a limit on the overall volume of the loans programme for small and medium-sized businesses, German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier s

There will not be a limit on the overall volume of the loans programme for small and medium-sized businesses, German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said during a joint press conference with Finance Minister Sholz on Monday, per Reuters. Ministers further noted that they were expecting heavy demand for the state-backed loans of up to €800,000  Regarding the European coronavirus aid that will be discussed by EU finance ministers on Tuesday, Altmaier said that the aid should not endanger the creditworthiness of member countries providing it. EUR/USD extends slide The EUR/USD pair largely ignored these remarks and was last seen trading at 1.0783, erasing 0.24% on a daily basis.

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) is expected to open Monday’s session on the positive fashion in the 0.85 region, rebounding from Friday’s lows around 0.79.

ACB reverses Friday’s pullback and is hovering around 0.85 pre-market.Optimism is fuelling a strong opening in the US markets on Monday.Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) is expected to open Monday’s session on the positive fashion in the 0.85 region, rebounding from Friday’s lows around 0.79. US equities, in the meantime, point to a firm open as all the three major indices are gaining nearly 4% in the pre-market hours at the time of writing. The upbeat tone in the European markets appears to be leading the way for US stock markets. In fact, the positive mood in the Old Continent follows latest news regarding the slowdown in both deaths and infected cases in both countries over the weekend, while the US is expected to enter a critical week with deaths from the COVID-19 approaching the 10,000 mark. In the meantime, ACB is looking to resume the upside on a more serious note following a broad-based upbeat momentum in US equities and rumours citing earnings estimate have been revised up. Further consolidation should remain on the cards in the short-term horizon, however, as signalled by the daily RSI in the 40 area. Aurora Cannabis Stock Price At the moment (pre-market), the stock is gaining 4.99% at 0.85 facing the next hurdle at 1.13 (weekly high Mar.27) seconded by 1.39 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.79 (high Feb.20). On the downside, a breach of 0.78 (monthly low Apr.1) would expose 0.60 (2020 low Mar.19) and then 0.34 (monthly low Aug.2016).

Risin crude oil prices in the second half of the last week helped the commodity-sensitive loonie stay resilient against the greenback and allowed the

WTI trades above $27, still down more than 4%.US Dollar Index posts small daily gains on Monday.Coming up: Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey.Risin crude oil prices in the second half of the last week helped the commodity-sensitive loonie stay resilient against the greenback and allowed the USD/CAD pair to close around 1.4200, 150 pips below its weekly highs. At the start of the new week, the pair dropped below the 1.41 handle but staged a rebound in the last couple of hours. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.4156, still erasing 0.3% on a daily basis. CAD continues to react to fluctuations in crude oil prices The pair edged higher during the Asian trading hours after crude oil came under strong pressure on news of OPEC+ emergency meeting getting postponed to Thursday. Although the barrel of West Texas Intermediate erased a large portion of its early losses, it struggled to climbs above and made it difficult for the CAD to stay strong against its peers. At the moment, the barrel of WTI is down 4.65% on the day at $27.45. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index is posting modest daily gains near 100.80 on Monday to keep the pair's recovery momentum intact. There won't be any significant macroeconomic data releases from the US and investors will be paying close attention to the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, which is scheduled to be published at 1430 GMT.  Technical levels to watch for  

USD/INR is trading close to all-time highs as the quote remains parked below the 76.50 resistance. Brod-based USD strength is keeping the bull trend intact as

The US dollar is trading close to record highs as DXY (US dollar index) stays strong.The level to beat for bulls is the 76.50 resistance.     USD/INR daily chart   USD/INR is trading close to all-time highs as the quote remains parked below the 76.50 resistance. Brod-based USD strength is keeping the bull trend intact as USD/INR is set to rise towards the 77.00 and 78.00 level in the medium term while support can emerge the 75.50, 74.50 and 73.50 levels on the way down.   Additional key levels  

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains under observation in the hospital and is undergoing routine tests, the PM's spokesman said on Monday. "Th

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains under observation in the hospital and is undergoing routine tests, the PM's spokesman said on Monday. "The PM had a comfortable night at St Thomas hospital," the spokesman added. "The issue is that the PM's symptoms have remained persistent." Regarding Brexit, the spokesman repeated that they will not be extending the transition period. "Both sides continue to analyse legal texts, talks continue remotely. We remain committed to continuing Brexit negotiations." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair edged slightly lower on these remarks and was last seen trading at 1.2290, where it was still up 0.25% on a daily basis.

A strong recovery in the global risk sentiment assisted the AUD/USD pair to catch some fresh bids on Monday and snap four consecutive days of losing s

AUD/USD snaps four straight days of losing streak amid a strong recovery in the risk sentiment.The set-up warrants some caution for bulls amid the prevalent buying interest around the USD.A strong recovery in the global risk sentiment assisted the AUD/USD pair to catch some fresh bids on Monday and snap four consecutive days of losing streak. The pair climbed fresh session tops, around the 0.6085 region in the last hour, with bulls now looking to extend the momentum beyond 100/200-hour SMA confluence region.  Technical indicators on hourly charts have been gaining some positive traction and support prospects for an extension of the pair's intraday appreciating move. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to recover fully from the negative territory and warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bullish bets. The prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding the USD, further supported by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, might cap any further move up. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying, possibly beyond the 0.6100 round-figure mark, to support prospects for additional gains. AUD/USD 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

US President Trump has directed him to look for additional oil storage capacities around the country, including commercial, US Energy Secretary Dan Br

US President Trump has directed him to look for additional oil storage capacities around the country, including commercial, US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette told Fox Business Network on Monday. When asked about possible tariffs on foreign oil, Brouillette noted that all options were still on the table.  Brouillette further added that he was expecting Saudi Arabia to arrange a G20 energy ministerial meeting by the end of the week. Crude oil reaction The barrel of West Texas Intermediate largely ignored these comments and was last seen trading at $27.65, losing 4% on a daily basis.

Head of Research at UOB Group Suan Teck Kin reviewed the recently announced RRR cut by the PBoC. Key Quotes “PBoC last Friday (3 Apr) announced the th

Head of Research at UOB Group Suan Teck Kin reviewed the recently announced RRR cut by the PBoC. Key Quotes “PBoC last Friday (3 Apr) announced the third reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of the year, targeting at smaller banks to support small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This comes as no surprise because it was flagged at the State Council meeting just days earlier.” “PBoC also announced the lowering of the interest rate paid on excess reserves to 0.35% from 0.72%. This is the first reduction of since 2008, and the magnitude is also larger compared to the 27bps move twelve years ago. As this rate acts as a lower bound in the interest rate corridor, the latest cut will effectively “force” other interest rates to move lower as well.” “With the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread outside of mainland China, we see scope for another one to two rounds of RRR cut in the next 3-6 months, along with a gradual decline in the benchmark 1Y loan prime rate (LPR).”

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to announce further policy changes at Tuesday's meeting while AUD/USD is bullish above 21-day moving a

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to announce further policy changes at Tuesday's meeting while AUD/USD is bullish above 21-day moving average and 61.8% Fibo, according to Ross J Burland from FXStreet. Key quotes “The RBA statement is unlikely to surprise markets in way shape or form and should not generate very much AUD volatility.”  “The RBA will likely repeat that they are ready to implement further measures as and when necessary, and will not raise rates until their growth, inflation, and employment targets are in view, which could lean a little heavy on the Aussie.” “The statement is likely to be balanced with the Bank arguing that the economy will eventually recover and that the Australian financial system is resilient. The Aussie could get a lift as Australia is well placed to rebound.” “The bulls have made ground back to test the 61.8% Fibonacci in a strong impulse. The pullback is hading into a support structure, and if it were to hold, the next impulse will seek a close above the 61.8% Fibo for prospects of recovery to test the 0.65 handle.”  “There is some bearish divergence in Momentum and the AUD/USD pair has been rejected at the 61.8% Fibo below the key resistance area. While smothered below the 21-day moving average, the price could continue to the downside and extend below the 0.55 handle.”

Analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank take a look at the outlook of the kiwi against the US dollar and the Aussie. Key quotes “NZD/USD is vulnerable

Analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank take a look at the outlook of the kiwi against the US dollar and the Aussie.  Key quotes “NZD/USD is vulnerable to falling below 0.5845 near-term USD remains strong amid global risk aversion.” “NZD/AUD should consolidate around 1.0200 while market digests RBNZ QE, but should eventually retest 1.0000 as the Aussie is more sensitive to global sentiment.”  

Gold gained positive traction for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and climbed to near two-week tops, around the $1638 region during the mid-E

Gold continued scaling higher for the fourth straight day and climbed to near two-week tops.The technical set-up seems tilted in favour of bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.Gold gained positive traction for the fourth consecutive session on Monday and climbed to near two-week tops, around the $1638 region during the mid-European session. Last week's sustained move beyond 100-hour SMA and a subsequent break through a one-month-old descending trend-line hurdle were seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. The momentum was further supported by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started moving in the positive territory and maintained their bullish bias on hourly charts. Some follow-through buying beyond the $1644 supply zone will reinforce the constructive set-up and pave the way for further appreciating move towards the $1658-60 resistance. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback now seems to find some support near the $1620 horizontal zone, below which the slide could further get extended towards the $1604 region. The latter coincides with the mentioned confluence resistance break-point, which could act as a strong base for the commodity and help determine the next leg of a directional move. Gold 1-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

Crude oil prices came under strong selling pressure after developments over the weekend revealed that the OPEC+ emergency meeting got postponed to Thu

Crude oil fell sharply after OPEC+ emergency meeting got postponed.Saudi Arabia and Russia are reportedly close to reaching an output cut deal.Crude oil prices came under strong selling pressure after developments over the weekend revealed that the OPEC+ emergency meeting got postponed to Thursday to give more time to sides to negotiate. Eyes on new OPEC+ output cut deal The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) erased more than 10% from Friday's closing level and touched a daily low of $25.27 in the early trading hours of the Asian session but has been recovering its losses since. As of writing, the WTI was trading at $27.63, still down around 4% on a daily basis.  Citing a top Russian oil negotiator, Reuters on Monday reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia were close to a deal on oil production reductions and helped crude oil extend its rebound. "I think the whole market understands that this deal is important and it will bring lots of stability, so much important stability to the market, and we are very close," Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, told CNBC. Moreover, Iraq's oil minister said that he was optimistic about reaching a new supply cut deal after talking to his OPEC+ counterparts over the weekend. Technical levels to watch for  

EUR/USD remains under pressure in the 1.0800 region at the beginning of the week, although the February low at 1.0777 appears to be holding well for t

Rising selling bias puts the EUR/USD under extra pressure.Further decline could see the YTD low at 1.0635 revisited.EUR/USD remains under pressure in the 1.0800 region at the beginning of the week, although the February low at 1.0777 appears to be holding well for the time being. A breach of this area on a firm fashion is expected to open the door to a move to the 2020 low at 1.0635 ahead of the April 2017 low at 1.0569. The selling pressure is expected to mitigate, initially, above the 200-day SMA (1.1068) ahead of recent tops in the mid-1.1100s. EUR/USD daily chart  

DXY is trading on a choppy mood at the beginning of the week, losing some upside momentum around 100.80 although staying bid for the time being. The c

DXY is struggling to add gains to the ongoing rally above 100.00.The outlook remains positive and targets the 101.00 barrier and above.DXY is trading on a choppy mood at the beginning of the week, losing some upside momentum around 100.80 although staying bid for the time being. The continuation of the move up should target the April 2017 high at 101.34 ahead of another visit to 2020 peaks in levels just shy of 103.00 the figure. So far, the positive outlook on the dollar remains unchanged as long as the 200-day SMA, today at 98.09, holds the downside. DXY daily chart  

USD/JPY could extend its advance towards the 110.00 price zone once above 109.38, the daily high, in the opinion of Chief Analyst at FXStreet Valeria

USD/JPY could extend its advance towards the 110.00 price zone once above 109.38, the daily high, in the opinion of Chief Analyst at FXStreet Valeria Bednarik. Key quotes “The USD/JPY pair is neutral-to-bullish as the 4-hour chart shows that the pair is comfortable above all of its moving averages for the first time in over a week.”  “Technical indicators hold directionless well above their midlines, indicating the absence of selling interest.”  “The pair would need to accelerate through the daily high at 109.38 to gather additional momentum and extend its advance toward the 110.00 region.” “Support levels: 108.70 108.25 Resistance levels: 109.40 109.80”

After printing multi-week lows near 116.50 last week, EUR/JPY managed to regain some composure and it has now reclaimed the 118.00 mark and beyond hel

EUR/JPY dropped and rebounded from the mid-116.00s.Further upside could see the 200-day SMA near 120 re-tested.After printing multi-week lows near 116.50 last week, EUR/JPY managed to regain some composure and it has now reclaimed the 118.00 mark and beyond helped by the selling mood surrounding the Japanese yen. Looking at the broader picture, the cross is expected to keep the broad rangebound trading unchanged for the time being, likely between 116.00 and 121.50. A breakout February tops in the mid-121.00s is needed in order to alleviate the downside pressure and shift the focus to a potential test of yearly highs in the boundaries of 123.00 the figure (January 16th). EUR/JPY daily chart  

Germany's Interior Ministry said on Monday that the easing of restrictions can come if the infection rate is below 1, Reuters reported, citing an inte

Germany's Interior Ministry said on Monday that the easing of restrictions can come if the infection rate is below 1, Reuters reported, citing an internal paper. According to the paper, when one infected person statistically infects less than one person, the infection rate is considered to be below 1. Additional takeaways "Transition from lockdown to pandemic control should be as quick as possible." "Rate must remain below 1, can be done without extensive lockdown." "Suspected cases should stay at home or in quarantine hotels if the infection rate is maintained below 1." "Proposing the opening of retail stores and restaurants but limiting the number of people in closed rooms if the infection rate is maintained below 1." "Proposing a regional opening of schools and educational institutions if the infection rate is maintained below 1." "Proposing developing a system of controls at the EU borders, open borders within the Schengen area." Market reaction Germany's DAX 30 Index clings to strong daily gains and was last seen adding 4.42% at 9,948.38 points.

The NZD/USD pair erased more than 100 pips last week but staged a recovery on Monday. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.5925, adding 0.93% on a

RBNZ's Orr says monetary support will be kept for as long as necessary.US Dollar Index stays flat on the day above 100.50.Major European equity indexes post decisive gains at the start of the week.The NZD/USD pair erased more than 100 pips last week but staged a recovery on Monday. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.5925, adding 0.93% on a daily basis. Risk sentiment turns positive at the start of the week Earlier in the day, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Orr reiterated that the RBNZ will keep the monetary support going for as long as necessary through QE and other tools. "Many firms will make it through this period through working with their bankers and their own team, and understanding and utilising the government's significant and expanding support packages," Orr added. Meanwhile, the upbeat performance of global equity indexes provided a boost to the risk-sensitive NZD as well. At the moment, major European stock indexes are up between 2% and 4.3%. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index, which added 2.4% last week, is staying relatively quiet near the 100.70 handle on Monday to allow the risk perception to continue to drive the pair's movement. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from the US in the remainder of the day. During the early trading hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, the NZIER's Business Confidence for the first quarter will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch for  

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann believes the RBA will keep the overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at this week’s meeting. Key Quotes “We think the

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann believes the RBA will keep the overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at this week’s meeting. Key Quotes “We think the RBA will not be changing the OCR for at least some time. In terms of QE, RBA Governor Philip Lowe emphasised that the Board did not take the latest decisions lightly. We believe this is probably the start, and not the end, of measures the RBA will eventually have to undertake to cushion the impact from COVID-19.”

The USD/CHF pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below the 0.9800 round-figure mark through the early European session on Monday. Follow

USD/CHF edged higher for the sixth consecutive session amid recovering global risk sentiment.Surging US bond yields underpinned the USD demand and remained supportive of the move up.Bulls now seemed to wait for a fresh catalyst and a sustained move beyond the 200-day SMA.The USD/CHF pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below the 0.9800 round-figure mark through the early European session on Monday. Following last week's strong positive move of nearly 300 pips, the pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and remained well within the striking distance of near two-week tops set on Friday. The pair traded with a mild positive bias for the sixth consecutive session on Monday and the uptick was sponsored by a combination of supporting factors, including a solid recovery in the global risk sentiment. a slowdown in the number of deaths from COVID-19 offered a sigh of relief to the traders and the same was evident from strong gains in the US equity futures, which undermined the Swiss franc's safe-haven demand. The risk-on mood was further reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which extended some support to the US dollar and further contributed to the pair's intraday positive move. Meanwhile, persistent worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic might continue to boot the greenback's status as the global reserve currency and support prospects for additional gains. Bulls, however, seemed reluctant, rather preferred to wait for a fresh catalyst before positioning for the pair's next leg of an appreciating move amid absent relevant market moving economic releases. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying, possibly beyond the very important 200-day SMA hurdle near the 0.9810 region, to confirm the near-term bullish outlook. Technical levels to watch  

The buying interest around the British pound picked up pace during the early European session and lifted the GBP/USD pair back above the 1.2300 round-

GBP/USD once again attracted some dip-buying ahead of the 1.2200 round-figure mark.Surging US bond yields extended some support to the USD and capped any further gains.The buying interest around the British pound picked up pace during the early European session and lifted the GBP/USD pair back above the 1.2300 round-figure mark. As investors digested news of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's hospitalization, the pair once again managed to attract some dip-buying and staged a goodish bounce from the vicinity of the 1.2200 round-figure mark. The latest comments by the UK Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick, saying that he heard that Johnson is doing well, helped soothe fears of any impending political complications and provided a goodish lift to the British pound. Meanwhile, the GBP bulls seemed rather unaffected by the downward revision of the UK Construction PMI, which recorded the steeped decline since April 2009 and illustrated the extent of economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. On the other hand, the US dollar struggled to gains any meaningful traction amid a solid recovery in the global risk sentiment. However, surging US Treasury bond yields extended some support to the USD and might cap any further gains for the major. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for an extension of the intraday positive momentum amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Technical levels to watch  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the chances of USD/CNH to break above the 7.1700 area have lost traction as of late. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the chances of USD/CNH to break above the 7.1700 area have lost traction as of late. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 7.0929 and 7.1195 last Friday, much narrower than our expected range of 7.0650/7.1250. The price action offers no fresh clues and USD is likely to continue to consolidate for now. Expected range for today, 7.0900/7.1250.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from Monday (30 Mar). As highlighted, the chance for USD to break above 7.1700 has diminished. However, only a breach of 7.0450 (‘strong support’ level previously at 7.0350) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. Looking ahead, a break of 7.0450 would suggest USD could spend trade in a broad range for a period.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its Interest rate Decision on Tuesday, 7 April at 04:30 GMT. Economists at TD Securities analyz

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its Interest rate Decision on Tuesday, 7 April at 04:30 GMT. Economists at TD Securities analyze three possible scenarios and the implications for the AUD/USD pair. Key quotes “We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at 0.25%. We don't anticipate the RBA to announce any adjustments to policy, but any indication on volume and frequency of purchases will garner attention.” “Dovish (20% prob): The RBA implies the pace of bond buying could increase. Points to risks of inflation falling sharply lower. AUD/USD at 0.59.” “Neutral Base Case (60% prob): The RBA had not been able to develop a set of forecasts given the heightened uncertainty and its confidence on the timing of the recovery still remains uncertain. Don't expect the Bank to reveal any information on the pace of bond buying, will assess and monitor. AUD/USD at 0.6050.” “Hawkish (20% prob): The pace of bond buying is expected to decrease. Global Central bank initiatives have made a difference, and are expected to see further improvements going ahead. The Bank indicates buying longer-dated bonds is NOT on the agenda. AUD/USD at 0.6185.”  

After climbing as high as the 1.0830/35 band during early trade, EUR/USD has now come under some selling pressure and recedes to the sub-1.0800 region

After climbing as high as the 1.0830/35 band during early trade, EUR/USD has now come under some selling pressure and recedes to the sub-1.0800 region. EUR/USD stays focused on the downside Following a positive start of the week, EUR/USD has given away those gains and is now resuming the downside for the sixth consecutive session amidst the generalized firm sentiment around the dollar. In the meantime, developments around the COVID-19 keep ruling the price action in the global assets, while market participants continue to digest the latest US Payrolls and the increasing deterioration of the US labour market. On the domestic front, the need for further stimulus (i.e. via of extra issuance of bonds) to counteract the hard impact of the coronavirus in the Spanish and Italian economies is confronting the view of (mainly) German and Dutch officials, all this carrying the potential to keep weighing on the single currency ahead of the Eurogroup meetings due later this week. In the docket, German Factory Orders contracted less than forecasted 1.4% MoM during February, although reversing the nearly 5% expansion recorded at the beginning of the year. Further data saw the Sentix Index deteriorating further to -42.0 in April. What to look for around EUR The downside pressure in EUR/USD remains well and sound for yet another session, always on the back of the solid demand for the greenback. On the macro view, recent better-than-forecasted PMIs in both Germany and the broader Euroland opened the door to some respite in the prevailing downtrend in fundamentals in the bloc, although the underlying stance still remains well on the negative side and aggravated by recession fears in response to the COVID-19 fallout as well as the probability of the re-emergence of disinflationary trends in the region. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.17% at 1.0788 and faces the next support at 1.0777 (monthly low Feb.20) seconded by 1.0635 (2020 low Mar.20) and finally 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017). On the flip side, a break above 1.0964 (38.2% Fibo of the March drop) would target 1.0992 (monthly low Jan.29) en route to 1.1068 (200-day SMA).

The pound is attempting recovery amid reports that PM Johnson is doing well in hospital while optimism about coronavirus developments in several hotsp

The pound is attempting recovery amid reports that PM Johnson is doing well in hospital while optimism about coronavirus developments in several hotspots is weighing on the dollar, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to a hospital in London late on Sunday in what was described as a ‘precautionary step’.  Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick has said that Johnson is doing well, allowing the pound to recover.” “The new optimism replaces pessimism after America's NFP report on Friday as the world's largest economy lost 701,000 jobs. The quick determination in the world's largest economy is drawing funds toward the safe-haven dollar.” “Later in the day, health updates from the UK, Spain, Italy, and the US will all be of interest. Yet for the pound, any update on Boris Johnson remains central. Without a report that the PM has returned to Downing Street, sterling may suffer.”  

The USD/CAD pair tumbled to fresh session lows, around the 1.4080 region in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. The pair fail

USD/CAD retreated around 180 pips from daily tops; seemed resilient below 1.4100 mark.A goodish bounce in oil prices underpinned the loonie and exerted some heavy pressure.Coronavirus crisis might continue to lend support to the USD and help limit deeper losses.The USD/CAD pair tumbled to fresh session lows, around the 1.4080 region in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick, rather met with some aggressive selling pressure and retreated around 180 pips from the Asian session swing highs to levels just above mid-1.4200s. A weekly bearish gap opening for oil prices undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency – the loonie – and turned out to be a key factor behind the pair's modest intraday positive move. Oil prices drifted lower at the start of a new trading week in reaction to the news that Saudi Arabia and Russia delayed an emergency meeting to discuss output cuts, amid a deepening global supply glut. Meanwhile, a goodish intraday bounce in oil prices, combined with a subdued US dollar price action prompted some aggressive selling around the major and led to a sharp intraday pullback. Despite a strong pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, the greenback struggled to gain any meaningful traction, instead was being weighed down by a solid recovery in the global risk sentiment. However, persistent worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic might continue to lend some support to the USD's status as the global reserve currency and help limit the downside. This coupled with the fact that the pair remains well within a broader trading range held over the past two weeks or so further warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bearish bets. Technical levels to watch  

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will reportedly announce a month-long state of emergency according to news agency NHK. The PM may designate seven p

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will reportedly announce a month-long state of emergency according to news agency NHK. The PM may designate seven prefectures, including the capital Tokyo in a special state. The number of COVID-19 cases has been on the rise in the capital and also in Osaka, another large city in the world's third-largest economy.  According to Kyodo, another agency, the government will make cash handouts that will reach citizens in May. Japan had initially coped well with the coronavirus amid a high level of discipline among its population. USD/JPY is holding onto gains above 109.  

With the massive issuance upcoming in the US, either the Fed will have to buy almost everything or else the USD needs to weaken to attract foreign pur

With the massive issuance upcoming in the US, either the Fed will have to buy almost everything or else the USD needs to weaken to attract foreign purchases of US Treasuries again, analysts at Nordea brief. Key quotes “Essentially no one wants a strong USD currently, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will weaken. A stronger dollar generally tightens financial conditions outside of the US, which is kind of counterintuitive since weaker currencies outside of the US in principle should lead to a competitive advantage.” “Some reasons why a strong USD is bad news for growth are that EM countries have borrowed in USD, firms who have borrowed in dollars see debt burdens grow in local currency and the financial sector also empirically becomes less keen to lend out when the USD is strong.”  “The last thing the world needs right now is an even stronger USD; in such case, we wouldn’t rule out a new Plaza accord like attempt to weaken the USD in a coordinated way. Everyone’s in the same boat now.”  

United Kingdom Markit Construction PMI below expectations (44) in March: Actual (39.3)

European Monetary Union Sentix Investor Confidence registered at -42.9, below expectations (-30.3) in April

GBP/USD Monday's four-hour chart is painting a mixed picture for the cable, as FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam notes. Key quotes “GBP/USD is suffering f

GBP/USD Monday's four-hour chart is painting a mixed picture for the cable, as FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam notes. Key quotes “GBP/USD is suffering from downside momentum but is trading above the 100 Simple Moving Average, battling the 50 SMA, and trading below the 200 SMA. The relative Strength Index is balanced.”  “Support awaits at 1.2210, the daily low. It is followed by 1.2140, a low point in late March.” “Resistance is at 1.2320, the daily high and a support line from last week. It is followed by 1.2490, a stubborn cap in late March and early April.” “Despite a limited range in recent days, volatility may explode later on.”

It is likely that the economic crisis linked to the coronavirus crisis is worse in the United States than in the eurozone. In order for this to lead t

It is likely that the economic crisis linked to the coronavirus crisis is worse in the United States than in the eurozone. In order for this to lead to an overweight position in European equities relative to US equities, there must be a decorrelation between the two equity markets, per Natixis. Key quotes “It is to be feared that the coronavirus crisis will be even worse in the US than in the eurozone, due to perverse dynamics that may start from the sharp rise in unemployment and lead to a banking crisis in the United States.” “In the past, when growth in the eurozone was stronger than in the US, the European market outperformed the US market. There is a link between growth gaps and equity market performance gaps between the United States and the eurozone.”  

The most common question received by Neil Shearing from Capital Economics was whether the Coronavirus shock would be inflationary or disinflationary.

The most common question received by Neil Shearing from Capital Economics was whether the Coronavirus shock would be inflationary or disinflationary. The answer depends in part on the timeframe under consideration. Key quotes “Over the next month or so, while economies are in lockdown, for many parts of the CPI basket the shock will be neither inflationary or deflationary.”  “If oil levels out at around $25pb, we estimate that the drop in prices will knock around 1.5%-pts off headline inflation in advanced economies by the end of Q2.” “Over 2020 as a whole, we’ve pushed down our forecasts for headline inflation in advanced economies from 1.6% to 0.3%, and core inflation down from 1.6% to 1.2%.”  

Gold finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and spiked to one-week tops, around the $1632 region in the last hour. Following an ea

Gold caught some fresh bids and built on the gains recorded over the past three sessions.The momentum seemed rather unaffected by a strong recovery in the global risk sentiment.A goodish pickup in the US bond yields also did little to hinder the intraday positive move.Gold finally broke out of its Asian session consolidation phase and spiked to one-week tops, around the $1632 region in the last hour. Following an early dip to the $1609 area, the precious metal caught some fresh bids and built on its positive move witnessed over the past three trading session. The momentum seemed rather unaffected by a combination of factors and could be solely attributed to some technical buying above a one-month-old descending trend-line. Bulls shrugged off a solid recovery in the global risk sentiment, supported by a slowdown in the number of deaths from COVID-19 and which tends to undermine the metal's perceived safe-haven demand. The risk-on flow was further reinforced by a strong pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, albeit did little to influence the non-yielding commodity. Meanwhile, the commodity on Friday managed to find acceptance above a short-term descending trend-line resistance. This comes amid a subdued US dollar price action, which extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity and turned out to be the only factor prompting some short-covering move on the first trading day of the new week. It will now be interesting to see if the uptick is also backed by any genuine buying or is just a stop-run, which runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/SEK has refused to drop sustainably below 11.00 and one reason could be the acceleration seen in Swedish Corona fatality data in the most recent w

EUR/SEK has refused to drop sustainably below 11.00 and one reason could be the acceleration seen in Swedish Corona fatality data in the most recent week, according to analysts at Nordea. Key quotes “We still see a risk that the SEK could be seen as a ‘pariah’ by international markets if the fatality growth accelerates in the coming weeks.” It is also worth noting that we are about to enter peak dividend season in Swedish kroners with the big bulk of SEKs paid out during April. Due to the Corona crisis, the dividends to be paid are naturally much smaller than in 2019 and 2018, but it is still a slight risk factor for the SEK through April. “EUR/SEK traded higher in 7 out of the last 8 Aprils, so we prefer to be short the SEK through this month targetting around 11.20 in EUR/SEK.”  

GDP growth forecast for the Brazilian economy also succumbs to Covid-19. USD/BRL is trading at 5.345. Key quotes “Agents’ expectations in March exacer

GDP growth forecast for the Brazilian economy also succumbs to Covid-19. USD/BRL is trading at 5.345. Key quotes “Agents’ expectations in March exacerbate Covid-19 fears triggering our 2020 GDP growth forecast revision from +1.8% down to -1.2%.” “In the realm of inflation, IBGE releases March IPCA report on Thursday, and we expect a gain of 0.15% m/m.” “Our estimate implies that the annual change will recede to 3.4% y/y (from: 4.0% y/y), bringing the headline back well below the BCB’s mid-target (of 4.00%) for 2020.”  

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/JPY could be headed to the 110.40 area in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected USD to ‘extend

FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/JPY could be headed to the 110.40 area in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected USD to ‘extend its gains’ last Friday but were of the view “108.75 could be out of reach”. USD subsequently rose to 108.67 and closed at 108.45 but has since moved above 108.75 this morning. Rapid improvement in upward momentum suggests further USD gains towards 109.40 from here. The next resistance at 110.00 is likely out of reach. Support is at 108.40 followed by 108.00.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted last Friday (03 Apr, spot at 108.00) that ‘risk of a short-term bottom has increased’. The breach of the 108.75 ‘strong resistance’ level earlier this morning indicates that last Tuesday (01 Apr) low of 106.89 is a short-term bottom. The near-term bias is for USD to test the 110.40 level from here. A clear break of this level would indicate USD could extend towards last month’s top at 111.71. On the downside, only a breach of 107.30 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

An oil supply cut would likely be dependent on non-OPEC participation including the US, which in effect, is happening already given the difficult cond

An oil supply cut would likely be dependent on non-OPEC participation including the US, which in effect, is happening already given the difficult conditions facing producers, strategists at Rabobank apprise. Key quotes “We see strong support for a global coordinated cut to occur, as in effect, it is already happening.” “We see scope for higher oil prices in the near-term should a global production deal come to fruition.” “The speculative interest is largely ’short’ at the moment including trend followers, momentum traders, and ‘carry’ strategies. These ‘shorts’ are now at risk of giving back a large portion of recent gains should a global supply cut be put in place but much will depend on how quickly the virus-related demand losses begin to recover in the weeks and months ahead.”  

Advanced data for crude oil futures markets from CME Group noted open interest shrunk by nearly 1.5K contracts at the end of last week. In the same li

Advanced data for crude oil futures markets from CME Group noted open interest shrunk by nearly 1.5K contracts at the end of last week. In the same line, volume reversed two builds in a row and decreased by around 353.5k contracts, the highest single-day drop since March 23rd. WTI faces strong barrier at $30.00/bbl Friday’s recovery in prices of the barrel of WTI were amidst declining open interest and volume, suggesting the presence of short covering behind the recent upside. That said, and with the $30.00 mark per barrel capping the upside, the door remains open for the resumption of the downtrend in the very near term at least.

The SGD NEER stands marginally above the perceived parity (1.4414), with the implied USD/SGD thresholds moving higher alongside the USD strength, Tere

The SGD NEER stands marginally above the perceived parity (1.4414), with the implied USD/SGD thresholds moving higher alongside the USD strength, Terence Wu from OCBC Bank informs. Key quotes “With the 1.4400 breached for the USD/SGD, expect the pair to continue reaching higher for now.”  “We will not rule out 1.4450/60 levels on an intraday basis, while expecting support to come in at 1.4360/70 levels.”  “The Markit man. PMI slumped to 33.3, perhaps the worst hit among Asian economies at this stage, although the official gauge is firmer at 45.4 (still below expectations).”  

The USD/JPY pair added to its intraday gains and climbed further beyond the 109.00 round-figure mark, hitting over one-week tops in the last hour. The

USD/JPY continued gaining positive traction for the third consecutive session on Monday.A strong recovery in the global risk sentiment weighed on the JPY’s safe-haven status.A goodish pickup in the US bond yields underpinned the USD and remained supportive.The USD/JPY pair added to its intraday gains and climbed further beyond the 109.00 round-figure mark, hitting over one-week tops in the last hour. The pair built on last week's recovery move from sub-107.00 levels and continued gaining positive traction for the third consecutive session on Monday amid a solid recovery in the global risk sentiment. A decline in fatalities from the COVID-19 offered a sigh of relief to the traders and the same was evident from strong gains in the US equity futures, which undermined the Japanese yen's safe-haven demand. The JPY was further weighed down by TBS News report that the Japanese government is considering six months for a state of emergency declaration to curb the coronavirus outbreak in Tokyo. Meanwhile, the risk-on mood was further reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which extended some support to the US dollar and contributed to the pair's positive move. This coupled with some technical buying above the very important, 200-day SMA, which took along some short-term trading stops near the 109.00 mark, further accelerated the intraday momentum. Currently placed near session tops, around the 109.35-40 region, some follow-through buying should pave the way for additional gains, possibly towards reclaiming the 110.00 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

In light of the recent price action, further pullbacks in AUD/USD appear likely in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24

In light of the recent price action, further pullbacks in AUD/USD appear likely in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we expected AUD to ‘dip below 0.6000’ but held the view that ‘the next support at 0.5960 is unlikely to come into the picture’. Our view was not wrong as AUD dropped to 0.5980 before staging a mild rebound. Downward momentum has picked up, albeit not by much and from here, there is room for AUD to move below the 0.5960 towards 0.5940. The next support at 0.5900 is likely out of reach. The current downward pressure is deemed as intact unless AUD can move back above 0.6070 (minor resistance is at 0.6040).” Next 1-3 weeks: “AUD lost -1.00% last Friday as it dropped to a low of 0.5980. Downward momentum is beginning to improve and while we continue to expect AUD to trade in a broad 0.5900/0.6200 range (narrowed from 0.5900/0.6250 previously), the bottom of the range at 0.5900 appears to be more vulnerable. Looking ahead, if AUD closes below 0.5900, it would indicate the start of a deeper pullback towards 0.5750.”

The recent US equity market drop and subsequent swings in prices have been dramatic. Investors may be tempted to sell out of equities and hide but tha

The recent US equity market drop and subsequent swings in prices have been dramatic. Investors may be tempted to sell out of equities and hide but that may, in fact, be exactly the wrong thing to do, at exactly the wrong time, in the opinion of Samantha Azzarello from JP Morgan Asset Management. Key quotes “This current bear market and recession are both very different from those in 2008: they are event-driven, not structural or cyclical. Moreover, recent buying and selling pressure has been amplified by systematic flows rather than massive shifts from retail investors.”  “Historically, retail money leaving the market has signaled the bottom, suggesting that we may have more pain to feel in the equity market before we truly approach fair value. History also tells us that such large declines in markets can be followed by large, sustained bull markets.” “Investors would do better not to succumb to some of the classic behavioral pitfalls that are so tempting in today’s turbulent market environment. The average investor doing the exact wrong thing at the exact wrong time, for what they think are the right reasons, ultimately hurts returns.”  

Traders added almost 1.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday, according to flash figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume r

Traders added almost 1.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday, according to flash figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume reversed the previous build and shrunk by around 16.6K contracts. Copper points to further rangebound Prices of the pound of the base metal closed Friday’s session with losses in combination with rising open interest and declining volume, leaving the scenario of further consolidation unchanged in the short-term horizon.

Argentina Tax Revenue (MoM) declined to 443.64B in March from previous 471.69B

Copper speculation positioning increased on the week, but investors continue to shy away from the industrial metal as both longs and shorts exited the

Copper speculation positioning increased on the week, but investors continue to shy away from the industrial metal as both longs and shorts exited the market, per TD Securities. Key quotes “Continued deterioration in demand, as highlighted by our real-time commodity demand indicator, remains the largest driver for the red metal.” “As the world remains closed for longer there could still be another leg lower in copper prices.”  “We believe the demand drag will continue to be the overwhelming factor, while reduced supply and additional stimulus down can only help mitigate downside as swollen inventories are likely to prevent a bullish response.”  

Robert Jenrick, the UK Housing Secretary, has said that he heard that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is doing well. The PM was admitted to hospital late

Robert Jenrick, the UK Housing Secretary, has said that he heard that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is doing well. The PM was admitted to hospital late on Sunday as he was unable to shake off symptoms of COVID-19. Johnson had been working in self-isolation since announcing he tested positive in late March.  Jenrick added that the PM will stay in hospital as long as needed, following the advice of doctors. Johnson has been working "incredibly hard" according to his minister, and it will be frustrating for him. GBP/USD is recovering in response to the news, trading around 1.2280. 

The USD/CAD continues to play the range between 1.4100 and 1.4300 range, as the crude oil complex continues to fluctuate on shifting headlines, per OC

The USD/CAD continues to play the range between 1.4100 and 1.4300 range, as the crude oil complex continues to fluctuate on shifting headlines, per OCBC Bank. Key quotes “Note that short-term implied valuations have capitulated lower. 1.4000 will be key to watch on the downside. A clear breach will signal a return of a downside bias.”  “In the interim, expect further sideways movement for now.”  

The AUD/USD pair traded with a mild positive bias through the Asian session, albeit lacked any strong follow-through beyond mid-0.6000s. The pair gain

AUD/USD gains some positive traction amid a strong recovery in the global risk sentiment.Coronavirus jitters continue to benefit the USD’s safe-haven status and capped the upside.The AUD/USD pair traded with a mild positive bias through the Asian session, albeit lacked any strong follow-through beyond mid-0.6000s. The pair gained some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and for now, seems to have snapped four consecutive days of losing streak amid a goodish recovery in the global risk sentiment. A decline in fatalities from the COVID-19 boosted investors' confidence and the same was evident from strong gains in the US equity futures, which provided a modest lift to the perceived riskier aussie. However, persistent worries over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continue benefitting the US dollar's perceived safe-haven status and turned out to be one of the key factors capping gains. The market concerns were further fueled by Friday's US monthly jobs report, which showed that the economy lost 701K jobs in March and the unemployment rate spiked to 4.4% from 3.5% previous. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent pullback from levels beyond the 0.6200 mark is already over and positioning for any further positive move. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, developments surrounding the coronavirus saga might continue to influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful trading impetus. Short-term technical outlook  

In light of preliminary data for gold futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume retreated by nearly 6.1K contracts and by 32.7K contrac

In light of preliminary data for gold futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume retreated by nearly 6.1K contracts and by 32.7K contracts, respectively, on Friday. Gold still capped around $1,650/oz Friday’s advance in the ounce troy of gold was amidst shrinking open interest and volume, showing that the move was mainly sponsored by short covering. That said, some correction lower appears on the cards while the upside remains capped by the $1,650 area for the time being.

Investors will be focused on the planned meeting of oil producers scheduled for 9 April. Strategists at ANZ Bank see the likelihood of any coordinated

Investors will be focused on the planned meeting of oil producers scheduled for 9 April. Strategists at ANZ Bank see the likelihood of any coordinated supply response as very small. Key quotes “OPEC called for a meeting of the old OPEC+ alliance for Monday 6 April but the cracks started to appear early. The OPEC meeting has been moved to Wednesday 9 April; and, while the meeting is open to any producer, there is uncertainty surrounding involvement of the US shale industry.”  “We believe the actions are too little, too late. The market is already awash with crude, with physical spot prices struggling. We also believe any agreement on production cuts will have minimal impact on the oil market.”  “The closing of borders and lockdowns has had a catastrophic impact on oil demand. Flight activity has fallen by more than 60% over the past month, while traffic in the US and Europe is down 60% and 45% respectively. Overall, we calculate world crude oil demand has fallen by about 20mb/d.”  

USD/CHF has rallied from 0.9500 and is now approaching the 0.9810 200-day ma. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank,

USD/CHF has rallied from 0.9500 and is now approaching the 0.9810 200-day ma. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, analyzes the USD/CHF pair technical outlook. Key quotes “We note the 13 count on the 240-minute chart and will allow for the 200-day ma to hold the initial test and for a small near term dip, we will attempt to buy the dip.”  “Support lies at the 0.9607 accelerated uptrend.”  “Above the 200-day ma lies the 0.9900 recent high. Above 0.9920 the market is capable of further gains to 1.0023/28, the October and November highs.”  

EUR/USD has been edging higher amid encouraging coronavirus developments in Europe but Monday's four-hour chart remains bearish, FXStreet’s analyst Yo

EUR/USD has been edging higher amid encouraging coronavirus developments in Europe but Monday's four-hour chart remains bearish, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam briefs. Key quotes “Bears remain in control, with momentum on the four-hour chart pointing to the downside and the currency pair trades below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index is above 30, outside oversold conditions.” “Support awaits at around 1.0770, which is Friday's low. The next support line is only at 1.0640, the 2020 trough.” “Some resistance awaits at 1.0840, the daily high, and it is followed by 1.09, which was a cushion last week.”  

The USD ignored soft data. New Zealand faces struggles but private debt aside, is going into this crisis with a decent hand: low government debt, food

The USD ignored soft data. New Zealand faces struggles but private debt aside, is going into this crisis with a decent hand: low government debt, food production capacity, island borders, and a tech-connected population, per ANZ Bank. Key quotes “NZD/USD has continued to drift as the USD has strengthened even in the face of appalling data, not that data is the focus at the moment.” “New Zealand has a real shot at containing COVID-19 whereas it has gotten away in the US (and elsewhere).”  “Exports continue to hold up suggesting the Kiwi will hold up okay, even if it’s not a ‘risk on’ environment. Support is not far away and if broken, spells some exploration lower.” “Support 0.5830 Resistance 0.6000”  

GBP/USD set-up seems tilted in favour of bears and supports prospects for a further slide, Haresh Menghani, an analyst at FXStreet, informs. Key quote

GBP/USD set-up seems tilted in favour of bears and supports prospects for a further slide, Haresh Menghani, an analyst at FXStreet, informs. Key quotes “The convergence of 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA points to the increasing possibility of a bearish death-cross on the daily chart. The set-up indicates that the recent strong recovery from 35-year lows might have already run out of the steam and thus, supports prospects for the resumption of the pair's prior/well-established bearish trend.” “It will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the 1.2200 round-figure mark before positioning for a further near-term depreciating move towards challenging the 1.2100 mark en-route the 1.2075-70 support zone.” “On the flip side, the 1.2300 round-figure mark now seems to act as immediate resistance and any subsequent positive move is likely to confront some fresh supply near the 1.2375-80 region.”

The USD/JPY pair finished higher on the week, though it remains well below its peaks of mid and late March, as moderate risk aversion still orders mar

The USD/JPY pair finished higher on the week, though it remains well below its peaks of mid and late March, as moderate risk aversion still orders markets, FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani reports. Key quotes “The USD/JPY is positioned between the extremes of 112.00 and 111.00 in the third weeks of February and March and the low of 103.00 on March 9 and 10.” “Industrial production was riding a five-month losing streak in February before the global viral shutdown and though retail trade in February and the Tankan Survey were better than predicted neither chronicle the impact of China’s economic closures in March.” “The extensive movement of the last six weeks has left plentiful lines of support and resistance with the caveat that in fundamental markets technical considerations are easily trumped by market developments and news.” “Resistance: 109.35, 109.60, 110.20. Support: 107.85, 107.10, 106.60.”  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted Cable is expected to keep navigating within a broad consolidative theme in the short term. Key Quotes 24-hour view:

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted Cable is expected to keep navigating within a broad consolidative theme in the short term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for GBP to trade sideways between 1.2300 and 1.2490 last Friday was incorrect as the breach of 1.2300 sent it plunging to a low of 1.2205. Downward pressure remains intact and for today, the risk is for further GBP weakness towards 1.2150. The next support at 1.2100 is likely out of reach. Overall, GBP is expected to stay under downward pressure unless it can move back above 1.2320 (minor resistance is at 1.2260).” Next 1-3 weeks: “When GBP surged to 1.2200 on 27 Mar, we indicated that the ‘recovery in GBP has scope to extend higher but prospect for a move beyond 1.2550 is not high for now’. GBP subsequently extended its gain to 1.2484, traded sideways for several days before lurching lower last Friday (03 Apr) and came close to taking out our ‘strong support’ level at 1.2205. While the ‘strong support’ is still intact, upward pressure has dissipated with the sharp and rapid decline. The immediate risk from here is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a broad1.1950/1.2420 range (a sustained decline below 1.1950 is not expected).”

The EUR/USD pair on Friday fell below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent corrective bounce and now seems vulnerable to extend the downward trajec

The EUR/USD pair on Friday fell below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the recent corrective bounce and now seems vulnerable to extend the downward trajectory, according to FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani. Key quotes “Sustained weakness below the 1.0785-75 region will reinforce the negative outlook and set the stage for a slide back towards the 1.0700 round-figure mark en-route yearly lows, around the 1.0635 region.” “On the flip side, any attempted recovery now seems to confront some fresh supply near the 1.0890-1.0900 region (50% Fibo.), above which a bout of short-covering has the potential to lift the pair further towards 38.2% Fibo., around mid-1.0900s.”  

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest went down by just 780 contracts on Friday. On the flip side, volume reversed two dr

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest went down by just 780 contracts on Friday. On the flip side, volume reversed two drops in a row and gained nearly 1.9K contracts. USD/JPY faces strong resistance at 110.00 The selling pressure in the Japanese safe haven could be running out of steam after Friday’s decline in combination with decreasing open interest. This this regard the upside in USD/JPY could meet a tough barrier in the 110.00 neighbourhood.

The latest survey from Citi bank and polling firm YouGov showed on Monday, the UK households’ inflation expectations in the year ahead rose sharply af

The latest survey from Citi bank and polling firm YouGov showed on Monday, the UK households’ inflation expectations in the year ahead rose sharply after the pound slumped due to the coronavirus crisis in the country. Key findings “Inflation expectations for the next 12 months shot up to 3.2% from 2.3% in February, the highest level since August last year. Unusually, this was despite a sharp reduction in oil prices. With short-run expectations also contradicting many – including our own – expectations that inflation is now likely to fall, sharp adjustments in inflation expectations may be necessary over the coming months.”

In light of advanced readings for GBP futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 7.9K contracts on Frid

In light of advanced readings for GBP futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by around 7.9K contracts on Friday. Volume, on the other hand, rose for the second session in a row, this time by nearly 6.7K contracts. GBP/USD could slip back to 1.2100 Friday’s downside in Cable was accompanied by declining open interest, resuming the recent downtrend and leaving extra losses somewhat limited for the time being. Against this backdrop, the Fibo retracement of the sharp pullback seen in mid-March just below 1.2100 the figure is expected to hold the initial test in the short-term horizon.

Japan Consumer Confidence Index declined to 30.9 in March from previous 38.4

The German Factory Orders data unexpectedly dropped in February, suggesting that the manufacturing sector recession in Europe’s largest economy is dee

German Factory Orders dropped 2.1% MoM in February.On a yearly basis. Germany’s Factory Orders jumped 1.5% YoY in February.EUR/USD eases-off daily highs, eyes coronavirus updates.The German Factory Orders dropped in February, suggesting that the manufacturing sector in Europe’s largest economy is not out of the woods yet. Contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ arrived at % on the month vs. -1.9% expected and +5.5% last, the latest data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed on Monday. On an annualized basis, Germany’s Industrial Orders jumped 1.5% in the second month of 2020 vs. -1.4% previous. About German Factory Orders The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) increased to 1.5% in February from previous -1.4%

Denmark Industrial Production (MoM) up to 2.1% in February from previous -2.6%

Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above expectations (-1.9%) in February: Actual (-1.4%)

Japan’s TBS News reports on Monday, the government is reportedly considering a six months period for a state of emergency declaration. more to come ..

Japan’s TBS News reports on Monday, the government is reportedly considering a six months period for a state of emergency declaration.   more to come ...

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 6: The market mood is positive, with stocks on the rise and the safe-haven dollar and yen under pressur

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 6: The market mood is positive, with stocks on the rise and the safe-haven dollar and yen under pressure. Italy and Spain have reported substantial slowdowns in the number of new coronavirus deaths in cases. France's curve is also showing tentative signs of flattering despite the country's broader counting. There is light at the end of the tunnel, and Italy is considering how to exit its lockdown. European leaders remain at odds about the economic response, with Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez warning that the survival of the EU rests on the answer to the pandemic. The Sentix Investor Confidence for April is set to further decline.  The pound is the exception after Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalized as his temperature remained high after suffering from the disease for ten days. Foreign secretary Dominic Raab will chair Monday's cabinet meeting. The 55-year PM was reportedly admitted for precautionary reasons, but investors are nervous amid the lack of improvement in his condition. UK mortalities are near 5,000, and Queen Elisabeth made a rare address to the nation. The US is bracing for the worst weak in fighting COVID-19, described by the surgeon general Jerome Adams as the "Pearl Harbor" moment. US cases have topped 300,000, and illness has taken the lives of nearly 10,000 people. President Donald Trump has raised the idea of sending more cash to Americans and announced that the administration is buying hydroxychloroquine. This anti-malaria drug has yet to prove efficient to battle the virus.  The US economy lost 701,000 jobs in March, according to the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which refers to the week including March 12, thus excluding the deterioration later in the month. Japan is set to join other developed economies and declare a state of emergency after an increase in COVID-19 cases, especially in Tokyo.Oil prices are falling after a videoconference between OPEC and non-OPEC was pushed back from Monday to Thursday. Markets fear that a deal to cut some 10-15 million barrels of daily production that Trump touted is still far away. Comments from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US are set to move crude prices during the day.Cryptocurrencies are on the rise, with Bitcoin edging closer to $7,000.  More: Explained: What indicators matter in coronavirus times

FX option expiries for Apr 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.60 1.7b

FX option expiries for Apr 6 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts          108.60 1.7b

GBP/USD has been on the back foot as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalized after showing ongoing symptoms from coronavirus. How is cable

GBP/USD has been on the back foot as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalized after showing ongoing symptoms from coronavirus. How is cable positioned on the chart? The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that GBP/USD has some support at 1.2213, which is the convergence of the Bollinger Band 1h-Lower, the BB 4h-Lower, and the previous day's low.  Significant support awaits only at 1.2098, which is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, and the Pivot Point one-day Support 2. Looking up, resistance awaits at 1.2271, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and the Simple Moving average 50-4h. There are several additional caps that may limit any upside movement, yet the most significant resistance line is at 1.2347, which is a cluster including the SMA 200-15m, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the SMA 50-1h, and the BB 4h-Middle.  This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

According to Politico, the European Union (EU) is likely to impose tariffs on US exports of lighters, furniture coatings and playing cards on Monday.

According to Politico, the European Union (EU) is likely to impose tariffs on US exports of lighters, furniture coatings and playing cards on Monday. This comes in retaliation against US President Donald Trump’s decision to expand tariffs on EU’s steel and aluminum exports. EUR/USD keeps highs The slowdown in the death rate in Italy, Spain and Germany seems to have boded well for the shared currency, as the EUR bulls shrug off the tariffs headlines. EUR/USD trades at 1.0825, having hit a daily high of 1.0830 in the last minutes. Coronavirus update: Germany reports fourth straight drop in daily rate of new cases

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 95,391, wi

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 95,391, with a total of 1,434 deaths reported on Monday. Cases rose by 3,677 in Germany when compared with Sunday’s 5,936 new infections, marking the fourth straight drop in the daily rate. The death toll climbed by 92. Despite the growing cases of infection, the curve seems to be flattening, with an average of approximately 9% rise in the confirmed new cases over the past week. A recession is almost priced-in for Europe’s most powerful economy in the coming quarters, with the IFO institute stating that the exports expectations in the country’s auto industry are at their lowest since March 2009. EUR/USD reaction On improvement in Germany’s virus situation, the shared currency saw a fresh leg higher, as EUR/USD tests highs near 1.0830. The focus now remains on the German Factory Orders for fresh incentives.

Open interest and volume shrunk by nearly 2.9K contracts and by around 38.7K contracts at the end of last week, according to preliminary figures from

Open interest and volume shrunk by nearly 2.9K contracts and by around 38.7K contracts at the end of last week, according to preliminary figures from CME Group for EUR futures markets. EUR/USD bounces off lows in sub-1.08 levelsEUR/USD’s negative price action was on the back of shrinking open interest and volume on Friday, hinting at the likeliness that a reversion of the recent downtrend could be in the pipeline. That said, the next hurdle of relevance emerges at the January’s low in the 1.0990/95 band.

EUR/USD risks further downside, although a move to YTD lows at 1.0635 could be premature for the time being, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group.

EUR/USD risks further downside, although a move to YTD lows at 1.0635 could be premature for the time being, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that EUR ‘is likely to weaken to 1.0785’ but added, ‘the next support at 1.0750 is likely out of reach’. EUR subsequently dropped to 1.0771 before recovering. Downward pressure has eased with the rebound and the risk of a break of 1.0750 remains low. From here, EUR could edge higher towards 1.0860. For today, a move above 1.0900 is unlikely. On the downside, 1.0775 is acting as a strong support ahead of 1.0750.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The ease by which EUR took out the strong support at 1.0840 came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.0819). The rapid decline and the subsequent weak daily closing in NY (1.0856, -0.96%) suggest there is room for EUR to weaken further in the coming days. At this stage, it is premature to expect EUR to revisit last month’s low at 1.0635 (there is a relatively strong support at 1.0700). Meanwhile, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.0980 (‘strong resistance’ level).”

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the upbeat momentum and trades closer to the key barrier at 101.00 the figure. US D

DXY remains firm in the 100.80 region on Monday.Markets continue to digest the latest Payrolls figures.Focus stays on the COVID-19 and its impact on the economy.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the upbeat momentum and trades closer to the key barrier at 101.00 the figure. US Dollar Index looks to COVID-19 developments The index is advancing for the fourth consecutive session at the beginning of the week, looking to reclaim the key 101.00 mark for the first time after two weeks. In the meantime, the developments from the coronavirus continue to dictate the sentiment in the global markets and the US economy, particularly after the disappointing figures from the US labour market published on Friday. In fact, it is worth recalling that the US economy lost 701K jobs in March – the first contraction since 2010 - and the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.4%. While these results have been largely anticipated, the worst for the labour market could be in the pipeline, especially considering that around 10 million US citizens filed for unemployment benefits in the last couple of weeks, according to weekly Initial Claims. There are no data releases scheduled on Monday, while Initial Claims and the advanced Consumer Sentiment for the current month, both due on Thursday, will be the salient publications. What to look for around USD DXY remains bid in the upper 100.00s so far, extending the rebound from last week’s lows in the 98.30 region. In fact, market participants seem to prefer the dollar vs. other safe havens like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in a context of prevailing risk aversion, all in response to unabated concerns surrounding the coronavirus and its impact on the economy. Further support for the buck comes from its status of “global reserve currency” and store of value. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is gaining 0.03% at 100.72 and a breakout of 100.85 (weekly/monthly high Apr.3) would open the door to 101.34 (monthly high Apr.10 2017) and finally 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 100.49 (78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) followed by 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) and then 98.09 (200-day SMA).

The risk sentiment was broadly bid in the holiday-thinned quiet Asian session, as the Chinese markets are closed on account of a public holiday. A slo

The risk sentiment was broadly bid in the holiday-thinned quiet Asian session, as the Chinese markets are closed on account of a public holiday. A slowdown in the number of deaths in the world’s hardest-hit countries by the coronavirus pandemic, the US, Italy, Spain and South Korea, offered a sigh of relief to the trades, as the Asian stocks rode higher in tandem with the US equity futures. Meanwhile, the safe-havens such as the yen and US bonds got thrashed by the improved market mood. The US dollar also backed off from an eight-day high, although remained supported, as US President Trump said that he hopes to see levelling off of coronavirus in the hottest spots. On the fx front, USD/JPY spiked briefly above 109.00 before consolidating just below the latter, as the yen also faced some selling pressure on reports that Japan will declare a state of emergency on Tuesday, effective April 8 (Wednesday), as the virus spread intensifies in Tokyo. The Aussie jumped to test 0.6050 while the Kiwi also bounced-back towards 0.5900 amid risk-on and upbeat remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) officials. Among the European currencies, EUR/USD attempted a tepid bounce above 1.0800 while the pound dropped against the greenback following the news that the UK PM Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital for some virus-related tests. Oil prices opened with a 10% bearish gap amid supply fears, as the OPEC+ meeting was pushed back until April 9 amid Saudi-Russia tussle. Meanwhile, gold prices were pressured below 1650 levels. Main topics in Asia Saudi Arabia delays issuance of May crude prices until after OPEC+ meeting – Reuters UK PM hospitalised for COVID-19 tests as a precaution Johns Hopkins data reports US COVID-19 cases reach 1 In 1,000 infected RBNZ’s Orr: Economic shockwaves eventually give way to vibrant economy – StuffNZ WTI downed 10% at Asia open as OPEC+ meeting pushed backed Trump: Hopes we're seeing levelling off of coronavirus in the hottest spots Japan’s LDP Chief Kishida: Govt close to finalising the economic relief package US Pres. Trump: If oil price stays the way it is he would do very substantial tariffs RBNZ Chief Economist: Not preparing banks for negative OCR at the moment China reports 39 additional coronavirus cases April 5th UAE OilMin al-Mazrouei backs Saudi call for oil talks, WTI bounces UK consumer confidence records its biggest fall since 1974 – GfK survey Spain and EU commissioners call for common European debt instruments - FAZ Japan state of emergency to take effect on April 8 – Kyodo Japan’s economic stimulus package to be rolled out in two phases – Bloomberg Italy plans to begin reversing coronavirus-led confinement measures from mid-May Key focus ahead         Today’s EUR macro calendar is at thin-showing, in absence of first-tier economic news. The immediate focus will be on Germany’s Factory Orders data for February, due at 0600 GMT. At 0830 GMT, the UK March Construction PMI and Eurozone April Sentix Investor Confidence data will be closely watch. In the NA session, the Bank of Canada (BOC) Business Outlook Survey will hog the limelight amid lack of any data releases from the US and Canada. Besides, the market sentiment will remain at the mercy of the virus-related updates and US dollar dynamics. Meanwhile, oil traders will look forward to fresh OPEC headlines and President Trump’s tariffs decision on Saudi and Russian oil production. When are the German Factory Orders and how could they affect EUR/USD? EUR/USD manages to hold the 1.08 handle ahead of the German Factory Orders, having dipped briefly to 1.0773 last Friday amid broad-based US dollar strength. German factory orders are seen falling by 1.9% MoM in February, having bounced by 5.5% in January. GBP/USD eyes first death cross since May 2019 GBP/USD's long-term indicator is about to turn bearish for the first time in 11 months. The pound was offered in Asia as Prime Minister Johnson was admitted to hospital on for coronavirus-related tests.  RBA preview: On hold, statement to be balanced, marginal risks for AUD RBA unlikely to announce further policy changes at Tuesday's meeting. Statement is likely to be balanced with the Bank arguing that the economy will eventually recover.

German factory orders are seen falling by 1.9% month-on-month in February, having bounced by 5.5% in January. On an annualized basis, the industrial o

German Factory Orders overview German factory orders are seen falling by 1.9% month-on-month in February, having bounced by 5.5% in January. On an annualized basis, the industrial orders fell by 1.4% in January. The data will be released at 06:00 GMT.  Bearish lead indicator IHS Markit’s German Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, was revised downwards to 45.4 in March from the preliminary reading of 45.7, signalling a deeper contraction.  Germany’s export-dependent manufacturing sector saw the steepest decrease in output in almost 11 years in March, in the face of the coronavirus-led plan closures in Europe’s most powerful economy. However, the same may not be reflected in the February numbers. Impact on the EUR EUR/USD manages to hold the 1.08 handle so far this Monday, having dipped briefly to 1.0773 last Friday amid broad-based US dollar strength, as the virus fears stoked the safe-haven demand for the buck.   The pair, therefore, is on the defensive and could suffer a drop to 1.0773 (Friday’s low) on weaker-than-expected German data. Should the greenback catch fresh bids on a turnaround in the risk sentiment, the main currency pair could accelerate declines towards 1.0700. A big beat on expectations could offer fresh legs to the bounce in the single currency, driving the pair to Friday’s high of 1.0865 above which the 1.0900 level could be test. At press time, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0820, up 0.11% on a daily basis. EUR/USD technical levels  

GBP/USD's long-term indicator is about to turn bearish for the first time in 11 months. The pair's 50-day average, which topped out in February and be

GBP/USD's long-term averages are about to cross bearish. The pound was offered in Asia as Prime Minister Johnson was admitted to hospital on for coronavirus-related tests. GBP/USD's long-term indicator is about to turn bearish for the first time in 11 months.  The pair's 50-day average, which topped out in February and began trending south last month, is on track to cross below its 200-day average. That would be the first bearish crossover or death cross since May 2019.  Seasoned traders would argue that death crosses are big-time lagging indicators and often trap sellers on the wrong side of the market. This time, however, it may invite chart-driven selling, as the 14-day relative strength index is biased bearish. Back in May 2019, it was reporting oversold conditions.  The macro-environment is also biased bearish, as investors are likely to continue buying US dollars on increasing fears of a prolonged coronavirus-led slowdown in the global economy.  Pound offered in Asia The British Pound declined in Asia amid reports that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is admitted to hospital for tests after showing persistent symptoms of the coronavirus. The official statement read, "On the advice of his doctor, the Prime Minister has tonight been admitted to hospital for tests. This is a precautionary step, as the Prime Minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus ten days after testing positive for the virus." With coronavirus tightening its grip around the Downing Street, the pound could remain on the offer in Europe- more so, as the data released early Monday showed the British consumer confidence dropped to the weakest since February 2009.  At press time, the spot is trading near 1.2235, having opened the week on a negative note at 1.2214. The pair faced rejection at 1.2264.  Technical levels  

The Italian government has outlined a strategic plan to gradually exit the confinement measures initiated to control the coronavirus pandemic, accordi

The Italian government has outlined a strategic plan to gradually exit the confinement measures initiated to control the coronavirus pandemic, according to French newspaper Le Monde.  The objective is to normalize the situation "as soon as possible", health minister Roberto Speranza said on Sunday in an interview with the daily newspapers Il Corriere della Sera and La Repubblica but refrained from giving a date.  That said, the emergency is not over a year and the nation still faces a few difficult months ahead, added Speranza. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is trading in the red on Monday, as a lingering dispute between top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia is keeping the

WTI drops as Saudi Arabia and Russia delay emergency meeting.Reversal higher cannot be ruled out as financial markets are reporting a risk reset. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is trading in the red on Monday, as a lingering dispute between top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia is keeping the bulls at bay.  The decline could be associated with the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to delay the planned emergency meeting to discuss output cuts to Thursday from Monday. The Kingdom would host the meeting via video conference and the decision to delay was taken to allow more time to bring more producers on board, according to Reuters.  Even so, oil is operating on slippery grounds. Investors are likely worried that an agreement would remain elusive due to the lack of participation from the US, the world’s largest oil producer.  President Trump informed markets last week about potential output cut delay between OPEC and Russia, sending oil prices sharply higher. The US benchmark jumped over 30 percent last week to register its biggest weekly gain on record.  However, on Saturday, Trump described OPEC as a cartel and threatened to levy tariffs on foreign oil, boosting doubts over the prospects for an agreement.  That said, losses could be reversed during the day ahead, as the equity markets are showing signs of risk reset with the number of coronavirus cases in the US, Italy and Spain slowing down over the weekend.  At press time, the US benchmark is trading near $26.80 per barrel, representing a 5.3% drop on the day. Prices hit a low of $25.85 early Monday.  Meanwhile, a barrel of Brent oil is changing hands near $33.25 –  down 4.7% on the day. WTI Technical LevelsResistance: $29.11 (session high), $35 (4H 200-MA)Support: $24.70 (4H 100-MA), $24.37 (10-day average).

The Spanish government is working to roll out a universal basic income as soon as possible, as part of a number of measures aimed at containing the ec

The Spanish government is working to roll out a universal basic income as soon as possible, as part of a number of measures aimed at containing the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The project, which will focus on assisting families, is being coordinated by Social Security Minister Jose Luis Escriva, economy minister Nadia Calvino said during an interview Sunday night with Spanish broadcaster La Sexta. Spain is dealing with the second-worst coronavirus outbreak in Europe, and the pandemic has pushed the government to order a state of emergency, according to Bloomberg. 

Gold's recovery rally from the March low of $1,451 looks exhausted, according to last week's inside bar hanging man candle. An inside bar occurs when

Gold's weekly chart is flashing signs of bull fatigue. A move above the preceding week's high is needed to revive the bullish view. Gold's recovery rally from the March low of $1,451 looks exhausted, according to last week's inside bar hanging man candle.  An inside bar occurs when prices trading within the preceding period's high and low and is indicative of bull fatigue when it appears after a notable price rise, which is the case here. The hanging man candle, which comprises a small red body and a long lower wick, also indicates buyer exhaustion.  As a result, a pullback to $1,600 or lower could be seen this week. At press time, the yellow metal is sidelined around $1,619 per ounce.  On the higher side, a move above the previous week's high of $1,638 is needed to revive the bullish setup and open the doors to a re-test of $1,700. Weekly chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

The highly anticipated Japanese economic stimulus package to cushion the blow from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be unveiled in two phases, Bl

The highly anticipated Japanese economic stimulus package to cushion the blow from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be unveiled in two phases, Bloomberg reports on Monday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Further details The rescue package to include: Increased subsidy rates for firms to help limit losses of jobs. Household with income are to receive 300,000 yen in cash. Household with children receive 10,000 yen per child.  Government to secure avigan supply for 2 million people in fiscal 2020 year. 

AUD/USD is now trading largely unchanged on the day around 0.6020, having bounced up from 0.5990 to 0.6049 an hour ago, possibly tracking the signs of

AUD/USD faces rejection near 0.6049 despite risk reset in the Asian markets. The S&P 580 futures are also reporting gains at press time. Recession fears are likely keeping the gains in the Aussie dollar under check. AUD/USD is now trading largely unchanged on the day around 0.6020, having bounced up from 0.5990 to 0.6049 an hour ago, possibly tracking the signs of risk reset in the equity markets.  The S&P 500 futures are currently reporting a 2.6% gain, and major Asian indices like Japan'sNikkei, South Korea's Kospi and stocks in Australia are flashing green. Copper, one of Australia's top exports, too, is up 1% as of writing. The Aussie dollar typically responds positively to an uptick in equities and industrial commodities. That positive correlation seems to be playing out in Monday'sAsian session. The buoyant risk-on sentiment is seemingly being fostered by reports of a slowdown in the number of coronavirus cases in some of the worst-hit countries like the US, Italy, and Spain.  However, the slowdown could be a blip, as noted by New York's Mayor and that maybe capping gains in the Aussie dollar. Also, recession fears have been bolstered by Friday's jobs data, which showed the American economy lost 701,000 in March, ending 113 straight months of job growth. The Australian currency could end up falling back to session lows, if the stocks surrender gains, tracking the decline in the oil benchmarks. At press time, both brent oil and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude are reporting at least 6% losses. The black gold has come under pressure on a decision by Russia and Saudi Arabia to push out their meeting to Thursday from Monday.  Technical levels  

Japan state of emergency to take effect on April 8 – Kyodo more to come ...

Japan state of emergency to take effect on April 8 – Kyodo   more to come ...

According to a German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Spanish Prime Minister (PM) Pedro Sanchez said Europe needs debt mutualization a

According to a German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Spanish Prime Minister (PM) Pedro Sanchez said Europe needs debt mutualization and a common “Marshall Plan” to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, cited by Reuters. Separately, the European Union’s (EU) Internal Market Commissioner, Thierry Breton, and European Economics Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni told FAZ that Europe needed to create a European taxpayer fund that could then issue long-term bonds to pay for a recovery from the pandemic. EUR/USD implications   The shared currency’s recovery momentum would gather traction should a common “Marshall Plan” is deployed to fight the virus impact. At the press time, EUR/USD trades better bid at 1.0815 as the greenback eased-off multi-day tops reached vs. its main peers.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday, South Korea confirmed 47 new coronavirus cases, with the total count now at 10,28

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday, South Korea confirmed 47 new coronavirus cases, with the total count now at 10,284. The new confirmed cases saw the lowest daily count since its peak on February, 29th. The South reported three new deaths, bringing up the death toll to 186. The body said that it released 135 more fully recovered patients, with the number of total cured patients now at 6,598.   more to come ...

JP Morgan analysts are of the opinion that a slowdown in the growth rate of the number of coronavirus cases in the US may put a floor under stocks and

JP Morgan analysts are of the opinion that a slowdown in the growth rate of the number of coronavirus cases in the US may put a floor under stocks and dampen volatility, according to Bloomberg.  The Cboe Volatility Index has been tracking data associated with the global spread of cases and has shown a relationship with the virus outbreak in the US, technical strategists Jason Hunter and Alix Tepper Floman wrote in a note Friday. Key quotes The number of states with growth rates above 20% dropped to under 10 from over 40 in the past two weeks, a trend which could keep the pressure on the VIX and moderate any equity declines. The S&P 500, Wall Street's equity index, fell by more than 12% last month and hit a 2.5-year low of 2191.9 as the coronavirus uncertainty triggered a global dash for cash, which saw investors sell everything from risk assets to safe havens like gold and treasuries. 
 

As a part of its routine operation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) offers to buy JPY350bln worth of 5 - 10 year of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB). The centr

As a part of its routine operation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) offers to buy JPY350bln worth of 5 - 10 year of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB). The central bank kept the amount unchanged despite raising the frequency. USD/JPY testing 109 and with vigor as US stock future rise 3% S&P 500 futures rise even as Oil drops

USD/CAD is currently trading in the red near 1.42, having found offers near 1.4260 an hour ago. The pair is trading in a contracting triangle, popular

USD/CAD's 4-hour chart shows the pair is trapped in a symmetrical triangle. The outlook would turn bullish if the triangle is breached to the higher side.USD/CAD is currently trading in the red near 1.42, having found offers near 1.4260 an hour ago.  The pair is trading in a contracting triangle, popularly known as the symmetrical triangle, as seen on the 4-hour chart.  A break above the top end of the triangle at 1.4260, would confirm a breakout and open the doors to 1.4349 (triangle high) and 1.4382 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4667/1.3921).  A triangle breakout would also confirm an upside break from the falling channel that has been in place since March 18.  Alternatively, a symmetrical triangle breakdown would imply a continuation of the decline from 1.4667 and may yield a sell-off toward 1.3921 (March 27 low).  4-hour chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

In an extra poll conducted by GfK in late March, British consumer confidence dropped to the weakest since February 2009, as the economic shutdown to f

In an extra poll conducted by GfK in late March, British consumer confidence dropped to the weakest since February 2009, as the economic shutdown to fight the coronavirus spread dampened households’ financial hopes. Key findings “The drop in the index to -34 from -9 in its regular survey for March, conducted earlier in the month, was the biggest in more than 45 years. GfK client strategy director Joe Staton said: “Our COVID-19 ‘flash report’ shows a dramatic result with consumer confidence falling off the cliff in the last two weeks of March.”           The biggest decline in the GfK survey came in households’ willingness to make major purchases, despite a spike in demand for freezers, televisions and home office equipment as people prepared to spend most of their time at home.” GBP/USD off the lows, not out of the woods yet The US dollar pull back from multi-day highs across its main competitors prompted the bounce in GBP/USD from 1.2210 low but the pound is not out of the woods yet, as the UK PM Boris Johnson remains hospitalized due to coronavirus. GBP/USD: A bearish start to the week as UK PM hospitalized amid coronavirus

Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) down to 1.5% in March from previous 1.6%

Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM) rose from previous -0.1% to 0.2% in March

New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price came in at -2.1%, above forecasts (-2.5%) in March

The US stock futures advanced on Monday alongside gains in the Asian equity markets as the coronavirus death toll in Italy and some other worst-hit co

The S&P 500 futures rise as New York's virus-related death toll slows. Oil prices are trading in the red due to delay in Russia-Saudi Arabia meeting. The US stock futures advanced on Monday alongside gains in the Asian equity markets as the coronavirus death toll in Italy and some other worst-hit countries in the world dropped on Sunday.  At press time, futures tied to the S&P 500, Wall Street’s equity index, are reporting over 3% gains. Meanwhile, major Asian indices like Japan’s Nikkei, South Korea’s Kospi are flashing 3% and 2.5% gains, respectively. Stocks in Australia are also up more than 2% on the day.  While the number of deaths in New York climbed to 4,159 on Sunday, the number of reported fatalities were 594 compared to 630 the day before. Elsewhere, Italy’s death toll fell to lowest in two weeks on Saturday, while that in Spain grew by 674 on Sunday versus 809 on Saturday according to CNBC.  The slowdown in the death rate is encouraging, but it is too soon to ay whether the changes are indicative of a trend, as noted by New York’s governor Andrew Cuomo.  While equities are better bid, oil benchmarks are a sea of red. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently down more than 5.5% and Brent oil is shedding 6% of its value, possibly due to decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to tentatively shift the meeting to Thursday instead of Monday.  The meeting will be convened later this week to forge a truce on output and stabilize the battered oil prices.  

USD/JPY is trading at 108.99 at the time of writing, +0.55% having climbed from a low of 108.34 to a high of 108.99. The US dollar is firm in Asia tod

USD/JPY has spiked to the 109 handle as COVID-19 grips Japan.US S&P500 emini futures up around 3% and weighs on yen.USD/JPY is trading at 108.99 at the time of writing, +0.55% having climbed from a low of 108.34 to a high of 108.99. The US dollar is firm in Asia today, albeit capped around 100.85 with a risk-on market as the yen drops with Japan moving to a state of emergency. The Japnese yen has been sold-off across the board and is likely to struggle as Japan's COVID-19 cases spike. The Nikkei Asian Review reported that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided on Monday to declare a coronavirus emergency as new cases in the capital increase at a record pace. "The government will hold an unofficial meeting of a panel of experts and start preparing for the declaration." Risk-on and Japanese sike in COVID-19 weighs on the yen At the same time, we have seen equities extend their positive move today, with US S&P500 E-Mini futures up around 3% at the start of this week. Weekend news has shown some glimmers of hope with respect to COVID-19 and today's US Task Force presser provided some reassurance to US citizens that the optimists on the panel believe that there is a light at the end of the tunnel and that the peak is near. Headlines from the presser can be seen here: Trump: Hopes we're seeing levelling off of coronavirus in the hottest spots. A focus on oil  Chart of the week: WTI bulls back in charge, taking on a 61.8% retracementMeanwhile, there is a keen focus oil which surged on Friday, as US President Donald Trump’s tweeting of a 10mbpd cut was likely and “maybe substantially more”, along with the confirmation that an OPEC+ meeting would take place this week boosted sentiment. WTI closed up $6.8/ 32% although as given some of that back in the open today, -$2.20 at the time of writing.  USD/JPY levels        

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said in a statement on Sunday, that they back the case for an emergency meeting of O

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said in a statement on Sunday, that they back the case for an emergency meeting of OPEC+ and other producers, as proposed by Saudi Arabia. Key quotes “A joint and combined effort by all oil-producing countries is required, not only the group of OPEC+ countries.” “The UAE is confident that, if an agreement can be reached, all producing countries will work quickly and cooperatively to address the weak demand for oil in global markets, helping to rebalance the market and maintain global oil inventories at reasonable levels.” Oil on the road to recovery With the risk-on sentiment picking up pace, oil prices are extending a recovery from the early slump. The above comments also ease the pain in the black gold. WTI now trades at 26.75, down 5.70%, although up from the daily low of 25.41.

China Reports 39 Additional Coronavirus Cases April 5 - Finds 78 New Asymptomatic Coronavirus Cases - 38 Of 39 New Virus Cases Are Imported More to co

China Reports 39 Additional Coronavirus Cases April 5 -          Finds 78 New Asymptomatic Coronavirus Cases -          38 Of 39 New Virus Cases Are Imported   More to come

EUR/USD closed in the red for the fifth straight day on Friday, extending the sell-off from the March 27 high of 1.1148. More importantly, the bears e

EUR/USD closed under key Fibonacci support on Friday. The pair risks falling to recent lows near 1.0630 in the short-term. A descending trendline hurdle is a level to beat for the bulls. EUR/USD closed in the red for the fifth straight day on Friday, extending the sell-off from the March 27 high of 1.1148.  More importantly, the bears established a strong foothold under 1.0831, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.0636 to 1.1148, with a weekly close under the key support.  At press time, the pair is trading largely unchanged on the day near 1.0805, having faced rejection at 1.0822 a few hours ago.  The path of least resistance is to the downside. A violation at Friday's low of 1.0773 would bolster the bearish setup and expose the March low of 1.0636.  The bearish bias would be invalidated if the trendline falling from recent highs is breached. As of writing, that trendline resistance is located near 1.09.  Daily chart 4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Having faced rejection around 0.5880 once again, NZD/USD is losing nearly 30-pips and tests the 0.5850 support area, as the US dollar continues to rul

NZD/USD ignores upbeat RBNZ official’s remarks. Dollar strength and oil-price weakness weigh on the Kiwi.  Coronavirus updated led risk sentiment to dominate. Having faced rejection around 0.5880 once again, NZD/USD is losing nearly 30-pips and tests the 0.5850 support area, as the US dollar continues to rule across the board. At the time of writing, the Kiwi trades 0.22% lower at 0.5856 while the US dollar index prints a fresh eight-day high of 100.85, up 0.27% on a daily basis.   The greenback continues to draw haven bids, as markets prefer tp hold the US currency in times of the coronavirus pandemic induced global economic uncertainty and disruptions. The virus spread is unabated, as most major governments have announced lockdowns to contain the infections. Adding to the downward momentum, the latest slump in oil prices, amid growing uncertainty over the global supply and OPEC+ meeting pushed back, weighs negatively on resource-linked NZD.   Meanwhile, the major ignored the upbeat comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr and Chief Economist Yuong Ha, as the sentiment continues to remain driven by the dollar dynamics, in the face of the virus crisis. NZD/USD technical levels to watch  

Fitch says that Australia and New Zealand public finances are weakend amid coronavirus. More to come...

Fitch says that Australia and New Zealand public finances are weakend amid coronavirus. More to come...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chief Economist explained that not preparing banks for negative OCR at the moment. Banks would need to be ready if O

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Chief Economist explained that not preparing banks for negative OCR at the moment.  Banks would need to be ready if OCR were taken lower. Expanding QE is a decision for the MPC.   More to come...

US Pres. Trump: If oil price stays the way it is he would do very substantial tariffs more to come ...

US Pres. Trump: If oil price stays the way it is he would do very substantial tariffs  more to come ...

The price of gold in the open on Monday is relatively quiet with the price trading between $1,609.11 and $1,621.24, slightly down at the time of writ

Gold prices are consolidating the recent correction, with bulls in charge.Should fear subside, gold could struggle, although is exposed to a renewed round of panic. The price of gold in the open on Monday is relatively quiet with the price trading between $1,609.11 and $1,621.24, slightly down at the time of writing at $1,615.33.  However, bulls have been in charge of a correction from the mid-March lows and Friday's as COVID-19 continues to spread and play havoc on the global economy. COVID-19 Updates: A crucial week ahead for the debacleThroughout last week, rising unemployment in the US saw investor appetite for precious metals rise and we saw a bid in precious metals with the price of gold rallying to US1,620/oz after a far worse than expected payrolls number in the US. More on that here: US NFP Quick Analysis: A grim future partially foretold. "Signs of the recent tightness in the physical market easing tempered these gains. The average premium of gold coins to spot physical had ballooned out to USD50/oz in late March as the tightness reached its peak," analysts at TD Securities explained. "That has since fallen to a discount of USD50/oz. Nevertheless, strong flows in gold-backed ETF funds show investor appetite for physical gold remains strong." Indeed, the price is moving to territories that will have CTA's shorts getting nervous. However, should the fear subside, then gold may struggle, although the situation is highly fluid. Fear subsiding, gold to struggle?  "We're not out of the woods just yet in the coming weeks, as our sentiment readings suggest that fear has subsided. It's worth reiterating that gold is a high beta asset to pandemic sentiment into the fear stage of the narrative, as the highly deflationary impulse from containment efforts could send real rates higher," analysts at TD Securities explained, arguing that this leaves gold and other high beta assets exposed to a renewed round of panic. "It's worth noting that the narrative surrounding COVID-19 is itself highly contagious, as it encourages many repetitions for discussion, involves celebrities, and can easily be surrounded by many parallel narratives (such as the resulting economic fallout). These elements make a narrative highly contagious and can ultimately provide the lubricant for renewed rounds of fear. In this context, the left tail remains fat in precious metals." Gold levels  

Fumio Kishida, Chairman and Policy Chief of Japan’s ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said on Monday, the government close to finalizing th

Fumio Kishida, Chairman and Policy Chief of Japan’s ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said on Monday, the government close to finalizing the economic relief package. He added that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will provide the details soon. On Friday, Kishida said that the government will provide 300,000 yen ($2,800) in cash to each household suffering from falling incomes amid the spread of coronavirus. About 10 million of Japan's 58 million households are expected to be eligible for the cash program. Meanwhile, a Japanese daily, Yomiuri Shimbun, cited that the government could announce a state of emergency by Tuesday or before. USD/JPY regains 108.50 Amid a rally in S&P 500 futures and a broadly firmer US dollar, USD/JPY picks up bids and regains 108.50 to trade around 108.65, at the moment. Investors await a fresh impetus on the Tokyo open.  

Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pledged on Sunday that his government will roll out measures to fight the economic impact of the corona

Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador pledged on Sunday that his government will roll out measures to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak but he warned the stimulus plan would call for massive borrowing. Mr. President said over the weekend that he will put forward an “unorthodox” plan and would try to do “all that is possible” to prevent Mexico from piling on debt. USD/MXN reaction The Mexican Peso remains thwarted by the fresh slump in oil prices, as the economic stimulus plan fails to offer any respite to the local currency. USD/MXN, currently, trades at 25.25, up 1.18% on the day, heading towards a record high reached two-week ago at 25.44. WTI downed 10% at Asia open as OPEC+ meeting pushed backed

Having kick-started the week on the front foot, AUD/USD is trying once again to extend the bounce from a five-day low of 0.5979. At the time of writin

AUD/USD attempting recovery once again on 0.6000.US dollar bulls take a breather before the next push higher. Eyes on coronavirus updates, as the focus shifts to RBA decision. Having kick-started the week on the front foot, AUD/USD is trying once again to extend the bounce from a five-day low of 0.5979. At the time of writing, the spot trades at 0.6000, up 0.10% so far. RBA: Rate cut, QE – What next? Despite the uptick to 0.6017 highs, the commodity-currency lacks follow-through amid a sharp drop in oil prices while gold prices also traded mildly lower. Further, the safe-haven demand for the US dollar remains intact, keeping the greenback broadly underpinned. Meanwhile, US President Trump sounds somewhat upbeat on the virus situation in his country, adding further to the dollar demand. Trump said, in the Task Force briefing, he hopes to see levelling off of coronavirus in the hottest spots. The US currency shrugged-off a loss of 701,00 jobs in the US economy last month due to the virus impact. Looking ahead, the downside in the major will likely remain capped, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to stand pat on its monetary policy decision due on Tuesday after it announced an emergency rate cut and bond-buying program last month. The latest RBA minutes revealed that the board said that there is no appetite for negative interest rates. AUD/USD technical levels to watch  

Members of the Coronavirus Task Force are holding a press briefing and Trump is the first to speak, explaining the inventory of protective gear such a

Members of the Coronavirus Task Force are holding a press briefing and Trump is the first to speak, explaining the inventory of protective gear such as masks and ventilators in the way to those in need.  At the same time, Trump has contradicted his recent warnings, now saying that he hopes we're seeing levelling off of coronavirus in the hottest spots. He then said "we are heading to the peak of the epidemic". Key comments 1.67 million people have been tested, far more than other countries. More to come...

The Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese news outlet, reported on Monday that the government could announce a state of emergency by Tuesday or before. more to

The Yomiuri Shimbun, a Japanese news outlet, reported on Monday that the government could announce a state of emergency by Tuesday or before.   more to come ...

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) opens the week with a bearish gap of $3 or 10%, as the bears fight back control on uncertainty over the likely meeting betw

WTI kicks-off the week sharply lower on OPEC+ meeting woes.Oil reverses 30% gains seen last week on hopes of OPEC+ output cuts.  All eyes on the US and OPEC headlines amid coronavirus updates.WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) opens the week with a bearish gap of $3 or 10%, as the bears fight back control on uncertainty over the likely meeting between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+). Earlier the meeting to discuss the oil output cuts was scheduled for April 6. However, the Reuters sources reported over the weekend that it is now postponed to April 9, allowing more non -OPEC producers, including the US, Norway and Canada, to come on board and join in the production cuts to stem the price declines,  the wake of the coronavirus pandemic induces demand concerns. The black gold is reversing the 30% weekly rise, diving from Friday’s close of 28.97 top open the week at 25.98. At the press time, the US oil sheds nearly 11% to trade at 25.90, having hit a low of 25.41.   Despite the early knockdown, markets expect a turnaround in the barrel of WTI, largely on the back of increased expectations that the OPEC+ oil output cuts will materialize this week, especially with Russia confirming its participation in the meeting. The alliance is likely to debate oil output cuts of 10 million barrels per day (bpd) when they gather at the emergency meeting. Additionally, US President Trump’s announcement that they will impose tariffs on Saudi and Russian production, potentially accelerating an output cutback, could offer some respite to the bulls. The black gold rallied hard last week after US President Donald Trump said that Saudi and Russia could soon reach a deal to cut the production by 10 to 15 million bpd while markets see a potential price war truce. Attention now turns towards the OPEC+-related headlines and Trump’s take on the likely tariffs for a fresh direction in the prices. Meanwhile, investors will take cues from a better market mood amid broad dollar strength, as virus fears continue to weigh. WTI technical levels to consider  

The latest headlines are crossing the wires, via Reuters, citing that the White House Coronavirus Task Force media briefing will be at 2300 GMT on Mon

The latest headlines are crossing the wires, via Reuters, citing that the White House Coronavirus Task Force media briefing will be at 2300 GMT on Monday, delayed by a couple of hours. The US dollar continues to lead the charge across the fx board, as the fears over the infectious respiratory illness persist. COVID-19 Updates: A crucial week ahead for the debacle Forex Today: Dollar the strongest as risk aversion rules

Amid reports that the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is admitted to hospital for some coronavirus-linked precautionary tests combined with persi

GBP/USD sold-into news that UK PM Johnson gets hospitalized. Coronavirus risks will continue to boost have flows for the USD. UK Construction PMI eyed amid a quiet macro day this Monday. Amid reports that the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is admitted to hospital for some coronavirus-linked precautionary tests combined with persisting broad US dollar weakness, GBP/USD started out a fresh week on a negative note in Asia this Monday. Coronavirus tightens grip over the UK The cable remains the main laggard across the fx space so far, as the bears look to test the 0.2200 level, having eroded nearly 60-pips in early trades. The main catalyst behind the sharp drop is about the increased concerns over the PM Johnson’s health condition, as he gets hospitalized after dealing with mild virus symptoms for 10 days after being tested positive. The Downing Street statement read, "On the advice of his doctor, the Prime Minister has tonight been admitted to hospital for tests. This is a precautionary step, as the Prime Minister continues to have persistent symptoms of coronavirus ten days after testing positive for the virus." The recent chatter that the PM is put on the ventilator support is likely to aggravate the pain in the pound. Further, the ongoing strength in the US dollar vs. its six major rivals, in the wake of the increased safe-haven demand, as the pandemic intensifies worldwide and heightens the fears over a global economic recession, collaborates with the downside momentum in the spot, as the British currency gives up its last week’s resilience. Meanwhile, on the data front, the greenback remained unperturbed by a 7 million drop in the US jobs for March, as the upbeat US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI boded well for the buck. However, the UK Services PMI data for March was revised down to 34.5 points, which is likely to remain a drag on the sterling.   In the day ahead, the updates on the PM Johnson’s condition will remain a key driver for the major alongside the US dollar dynamics, as the macro calendar Is relatively quiet, with the only UK Construction PMI of note. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the UK government COVID-19 meeting, scheduled at 0815GMT for fresh trading impetus. The meeting will be chaired by the UK Foreign Secretary Raab and include the advisers and officials. Note that the latest data published by the UK's health ministry revealed that the death toll from the coronavirus increased by 621 to 4,934. The total number of confirmed infections climbed to 47,806. GBP/USD technical levels to watch  

Reserve Bank of Nw Zealand governor, Adrian Orr, has been quoted by the website StuffNZ and has said the following comments: Adrian Orr's quotes To da

Reserve Bank of Nw Zealand governor, Adrian Orr, has been quoted by the website StuffNZ and has said the following comments: Adrian Orr's quotes To date our 'bubble' has mostly included the Government, Treasury, and New Zealand's banks, non-bank deposit takers, and insurance companies. We have proved we can work together for a common goal – cash-flow and confidence – at pace. We recognise the threat of COVID-19 to our collective well-being and have responded accordingly to ensure we address the issues at hand and reduce the impact on future generations. To maintain commitment to our future prosperity, we have ensured that the cost of borrowing is very low through reducing the OCR to 0.25 percent and undertaking 'Quantitative Easing' (QE). We've also opened up new exchange and lending facilities for our banks to use if more liquidity is needed. These facilities range from daily 'open market operations' where we ensure there is plenty of cash in the money system, through to 3 month, 1 year, and soon up to 3 year liquidity facilities. We can lend to banks when they can't easily raise funds in international markets and this supports them in lending to their customers – businesses and households. In step with Government, Treasury, and the banks we are also assisting businesses and households directly. The mortgage payment deferral and business finance guarantee schemes are a collective effort to ease households' cash demands and enable credit to flow into businesses as we all wait the Covid-19 virus out. The latter involves us buying Government Bonds (public debt) from banks and swapping it for cash – so that the banks can on-lend. This activity keeps long-term interest rates low, where we need them, as well as helping the Government to fund its own expanding activities. The Reserve Bank can keep monetary support going for as long as necessary through QE and other tools. New Zealand is in a globally-enviable fiscal position with significant headroom. Our activities will best ensure Aotearoa is able to prosper for generations to come. Banks participating in the business finance guarantee scheme have also agreed to not pay dividends to their shareholders to ensure the public money used in the finance guarantee scheme reaches its target – New Zealand businesses in need. Further assisting banks is the 'capital relief' we provided them, encouraging banks to use their rainy day funds given that it is raining. We insisted banks hold large capital buffers despite their considerable consternation. They can now use them as necessary. All of this activity is simple but not easy. We are all experiencing unnerving times and there are some very hard yards ahead. Some businesses will fail, unemployment will rise, and banks will at times have to judge whether a firm is illiquid or insolvent when making a financing decision. We will also have to make tough decisions at the Reserve Bank when it comes to a specific firm's viability. The financial system is strong but we do not run a 'zero failure' regime. Instead we have put in place strong criteria for financial firms' liquidity, capital, and operation capability so they can withstand most shocks. Looking ahead, many firms will make it through this period through working with their bankers and their own team, and understanding and utilising the Government's significant and expanding support packages. Income support, mortgage relief, business lending, tax relief, and a broad range of regular welfare assistance is available and needs to be used. Support each other, think beyond just the next six months, and visualise the role you can and will play in the vibrant, refreshed, sustainable, inclusive New Zealand economy. He para i te huarahi ki tua – To carve a path forward into the future. NZD/USD update It has been a USD story of late and the kiwi has been drifting lower as the greenback strengthens, despite terrible data which markets are stepping over in the face of COVID-19. So long as NZ contains the virus, the currency should remain relatively sturdy in the absence of another wave of outbreaks in China while the US struggles to stop the spread of the virus and as he death toll mounts up. However, key support comes in at 0.5830 and should that give way, the downside potential is looking to a test below the 0.56 handle.

The Johns Hopkins data reports US COVID-19 cases reach 1 In 1,000 infected, and it is expected that this week will b a high death toll, according to U

The Johns Hopkins data reports US COVID-19 cases reach 1 In 1,000 infected, and it is expected that this week will b a high death toll, according to US President Donald Trump. “There will be a lot of death,” Trump said at the White House, where he and other American officials depicted some parts of the United States as climbing toward the peaks of their crises, while warning that new hot spots were emerging in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Washington, DC. Over 8,000 people have died so far in the US but the White House has said its projections show that at least 100,000 people could die because of the virus. Dr. Deborah Birx has said that "the next two weeks are extraordinarily important,” and, "this is the moment to not be going to the grocery store, not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe and that means everybody doing the six-feet distancing, washing their hands.” For more on COVID-19 updates, see here: COVID-19 Updates: A crucial week ahead for the debacle 
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