जोखिम की चेतावनी: सीएफडी जटिल इंस्ट्रूमेंट हैं जिनमें लीवरेज के कारण तेजी से धन गंवाने के भारी जोखिम हैं। इस प्रोवाईडर के साथ सीएफडी ट्रेडिंग करते समय 70% रिटेल इनवेस्टर अकाउंट धन गंवा बैठते हैं। आपको विचार करना होगा कि क्या आपको सीएफडी कार्यप्रणली की जानकारी है और क्या आप अपना धन गंवाने का भारी जोखिम ले सकते हैं।
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सोमवार , नवम्बर 18, 2019

Cable’s upside momentum could extend to the 1.2975 level in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlig

Cable’s upside momentum could extend to the 1.2975 level in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that the “bias is for further GBP strength even though the strong 1.2930 level is likely out of reach”. Our expectation was correct as GBP rose to 1.2919 before closing at 1.2903. However, the strong opening this morning has led to further improvement in momentum and GBP could extend its advance to 1.2950. The next resistance at 1.2975 is a strong level and is unlikely to come into the picture for today. On the downside, only a move below 1.2875 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 1.2900)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “While the top of our expected sideway-trading range of 1.2770/1.2930 (first highlighted last Tuesday, 12 Nov when GBP was trading at 1.2855) is intact, the underlying tone in GBP has improved as it closed on a firm note in NY last Friday (1.2903, +0.16%). From here, GBP could edge higher in the coming days and test the strong 1.2975 resistance. At this stage, the prospect for GBP to move to last month’s peak at 1.3012 is not high. On the downside, a move below 1.2850 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased”.

The GBP/USD pair gained some follow-through traction through the early European session on Monday and climbed to over two-week tops, around the 1.2960

Gains some follow-through traction and climbs to over two-week tops.The set-up seems tilted in favour of bulls, albeit warrant some caution.The GBP/USD pair gained some follow-through traction through the early European session on Monday and climbed to over two-week tops, around the 1.2960 region in the last hour.
 
Bulls might now be looking to build on the momentum further beyond a one-month-old descending trend-channel, which constitutes towards the formation of a bullish flag chart pattern.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias but are flashing slightly overbought conditions on hourly charts and thus, warrant some caution.
 
Hence, any subsequent move beyond monthly swing high resistance near the 1.2970-75 region might confront some stiff resistance and remain capped near the key 1.30 psychological mark.
 
On the flip side, immediate support is now pegged near the 1.2900 mark and is closely followed by the 1.2880-75 region, below which the pair might drift back toward the 1.2800 handle. GBP/USD daily chart  

The upbeat sentiment around the single currency stays well and sound at the beginning of the week and is pushing EUR/USD to fresh 2-week highs in the

EUR/USD gains extra pace around 1.1070 on Monday.The greenback remains on the defensive below 98.00.ECB’s Lagarde, advanced PMIs next of relevance in the week.The upbeat sentiment around the single currency stays well and sound at the beginning of the week and is pushing EUR/USD to fresh 2-week highs in the 1.1060/70 band. EUR/USD focused on trade, USD, data The pair is up for the third consecutive session on Monday, extending the rebound from last week’s lows in the 1.0990/85 band. The renewed and quite strong sell off in the greenback is mainly behind the rally in spot, which is now targeting the key 100-day SMA, today at 1.1093. Renewed optimism in the US-China trade front continues to sustain the positive sentiment in the risk-associated universe despite the lack of significant progress in past days. In addition, the better mood surrounding the riskier assets continues to fuel outflows from the safe haven space, lifts yields and undermine the momentum around the buck. Later in the week, ECB’s C.Lagarde is due to speak while the central bank is expected to release its minutes from the latest meeting. Further key data include November’s advanced PMIs in core Euroland, due on Friday. What to look for around EUR Spot is prolonging the rebound from last week’s lows in sub-1.10 levels, always underpinned by the renewed weakness around the greenback and hopes of a US-China trade deal. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In this regard, all the attention will be on the publication of flash PMIs for the current month later in the week. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 1.1059 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1067 (high Nov.18) followed by 1.1093 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the downside, a breach of 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).

Gold edged lower through the early European session on Monday and is currently placed at multi-day lows, around the $1460 region. The precious metal e

Renewed US-China trade optimism weighed on the commodity’s safe-haven status.A sudden pickup in the US bond yields further collaborated to the intraday downfall.A subdued USD price action seemed to do little to lend any support, at least for now.Gold edged lower through the early European session on Monday and is currently placed at multi-day lows, around the $1460 region.
 
The precious metal extended last week's late pullback from the $1474-75 supply zone and witnessed some follow-through selling at the start of a new trading week. The incoming positive trade-related headlines continued denting demand for traditional safe-haven assets and turned out to be one of the key factors weighing on gold. Weighed down by fading safe-haven demand In the latest development, Chinese state media Xinhua reported over the weekend that the two countries had "constructive talks" on trade in a high-level phone call on Saturday. This comes on the back of the recent comments by US officials that they were close to securing a trade deal with China and further fueled the recent trade optimism.
 
Meanwhile, the latest leg of a drop over the past hour or so could further be attributed to a sudden pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which tend to drive flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. However, a subdued US Dollar demand might extend some support to the dollar-denominated commodity and help limit the downside.
 
There aren't any major market-moving economic releases due on Monday and hence, the key focus will remain on the incoming trade headlines. This coupled with the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment might further contribute towards producing some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Hong Kong SAR Unemployment rate above expectations (2.9%) in October: Actual (3.1%)

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) expect India’s Q2 FY20 (July-September quarter) GDP growth to have slowed further to 4.6% y/

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) expect India’s Q2 FY20 (July-September quarter) GDP growth to have slowed further to 4.6% y/y from 5% in the previous quarter. Key Quotes: “Coming against favourable base effects, it will mark the slowest pace of growth since March 2013.”
 
“We are also downgrading our FY20 (ending March 2020) growth to 5.1%, from 5.8% previously.”
 
“We are cautious on a material improvement in the growth outlook in H2 FY20 as high-frequency indicators remain sluggish. We estimate the output gap to have widened to 0.8% of GDP in Q2 FY20 from 0.4% previously.”
 
“We, therefore, maintain our call for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deliver another 50bps of cumulative cuts in the remainder of this fiscal year. A 25bp rate cut at the next policy review on 5 December appears imminent.”

The safe-haven Japanese yen remained on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and lifted the USD/JPY pair back closer to the very important

The safe-haven JPY was being weighed down by the latest US-China trade optimism.Weaker US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive and might further gains.The safe-haven Japanese yen remained on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and lifted the USD/JPY pair back closer to the very important 200-day SMA, around the 109.00 handle.
 
The pair added to Friday's goodish recovery move from near two-week lows and gained some follow-through traction during the Asian session on Monday. The incoming positive trade-related headlines continued denting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies, including the Japanese yen and turned out to be one of the key factors driving the pair higher. Positive trade developments remain supportive In the latest development, Chinese state media Xinhua said on Sunday the two countries had "constructive talks" on trade in a high-level phone call on Saturday. This comes on the back of last week's comments by US officials that they were close to securing a trade deal with China, which helped offset a subdued US Dollar demand and remained supportive of the pair's uptick.
 
The USD bulls remained on the defensive in the wake of Friday's generally disappointing US manufacturing data, which largely negated slightly better-than-expected October monthly Retail Sales. This coupled with a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields further weighed on the greenback and might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the major, at least for the time being.
 
Moving ahead, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday. Hence, the incoming US-China trade headlines might continue to influence the USD price dynamics/broader market risk sentiment and play a key role in producing some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted that occasional bullish attempts in the cross are expected to face initial resist

Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted that occasional bullish attempts in the cross are expected to face initial resistance in the 120.50 region. Key Quotes “EUR/JPY saw a decent bounce from the 55 day ma last week, this is located at 119.35 currently. Rallies should find initial resistance at the 20 day ma at 120.54. This guards tougher resistance, at 121.34/85. This is the location of the 200 day ma, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the late July high”. “While capped here attention remains on the 118.61 uptrend. This should hold the initial test, however longer term the risk has increased for a break lower. Failure here will target the 117.09 October low ahead of the 115.87 September low”.  

FX Strategists at UOB Group sees EUR/USD moving into a consolidative phase in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we held t

FX Strategists at UOB Group sees EUR/USD moving into a consolidative phase in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we held the view “the recovery in EUR has scope to extend higher to 1.1045”. We highlighted “a sustained rise above this level is not likely (next resistance is at 1.1065)”. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1057 before ending the day on a firm note at 1.1050 (+0.26%). Upward momentum has improved and the bias is still on the upside. From here, barring a move below 1.1025 (next support is at 1.1010), EUR is likely to edge higher towards 1.1075. The next resistance at 1.1100 is unlikely to come into the picture”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted the deteriorating downward momentum last Friday (15 Nov, spot at 1.1020) and cautioned that “the weak phase in EUR could be close to ending”. The subsequent breach of the 1.1045 ‘strong resistance’ (high of 1.1057) confirms that the weak phase that started earlier this month has run its course. The current movement is deemed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. That said, the near-term bias is tilted to the upside but any advance in EUR is viewed as part of a 1.1010/1.1115 sideway-trading range. In other words, a sustained rise above 1.1115 is not expected for today”.

Advanced data for JPY futures markets noted open interest shrunk by just 606 contracts on Friday following three consecutive daily builds. In the same

Advanced data for JPY futures markets noted open interest shrunk by just 606 contracts on Friday following three consecutive daily builds. In the same line, volue went down by around 30.2K contracts, also reversing three builds in a row. USD/JPY risks a correction lowerUSD/JPY is adding to Friday’s gains and is flirting with the key 200-day SMA around the 109.00 handle. However, shrinking open interest and volume coupled with negative price action in the Japanese safe haven warns against the continuation of the up move, at least in the very near term.

In light of the recent price action, Cable could now attempt another visit to the key 1.30 handle, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Ana

In light of the recent price action, Cable could now attempt another visit to the key 1.30 handle, suggested Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “GBP/USD continues to recover from the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement. It is well placed for another attempt at the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3116 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, we look for the market to be capped here”. “Failure at 1.2764 will see a slide to the 200 day ma at 1.2702. This guards 1.2582 (September high). Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2448 uptrend. The uptrend guards 1.2196/94”.

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, gave her views on the latest releases in the UK docket and the BoE event. Key Quotes “The latest slew of economic

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, gave her views on the latest releases in the UK docket and the BoE event. Key Quotes “The latest slew of economic data out of the UK is likely to intensify pressure on the BoE. Last week, the BoE’s monetary policy committee (MPC) was divided over whether to reduce rates, with two of the nine-member committee voting for a 25bps rate cut from the current 0.75% rate”. “This was the first time that there were votes for a lower policy rate since 2016, and the first MPC decision that was not unanimous since June 2018. The dissent by Michael Saunders was particularly significant, because it was only about 18 months ago that he had been the outlying vote for a rate hike. That said, his recent comments had marked him as an emerging dove, whereas Jonathan Haskel’s vote for a rate cut came as a total surprise”. “Despite the dovish tilt at the 7 November meeting, we expect the BoE to be in a wait-and-see stance. We believe that the two dissenters against a large majority is still somewhat premature in tipping the balance for a rate cut, especially with a no-deal Brexit scenario off the immediate agenda. We would prefer to wait for the outcome of the impending election and its subsequent impact on how Brexit may proceed, before making changes to our forecasts”.

There is some evidence that the USD will behave differently in election years depending on whether a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate i

There is some evidence that the USD will behave differently in election years depending on whether a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate is leading in the polls, explained Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac. Key quotes: "The conventional wisdom is that Republican candidates are more business and market-friendly and as a result equities and the USD tend to perform better when expectations favour of a Republican presidency. Slide two shows the performance of the DXY index in the nine presidential election years since 1984. We split the small sample into two sub-groups – the DXY’s performance in those election years when a Republican candidate led in the polls (Bush (2004, 2000), Bush (1988) and Reagan (1984)) and those years when a Democratic candidate led in the polls (Clinton (2016), Obama (2012, 2008), Clinton (1996, 1992))."
 
"While the DXY index ultimately tends to finish the year higher regardless of the winner in a presidential election year (rising in 8 of the last 9 election years), it nevertheless spends the bulk of an election year on the front foot when a Republican candidate has been leading in the polls and tends to underperform for much of the year (until Oct/Nov) when a Democrat candidate is leading. See slide two. The caveat is that our sample is small and monetary policy and global growth can be just as influential in driving the USD. Moreover, the make-up of Congress will be a crucial factor shaping how much of a president’s agenda can ever become legislative reality. That said, there is some historical evidence backing the view that markets may trade more cautiously in 2020 if a Democratic candidate, especially a strong left-leaning candidate, has a strong lead in the polls."

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted investors added nearly 3.3K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday while volume als

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted investors added nearly 3.3K contracts to their open interest positions on Friday while volume also rose by almost 6.3K contracts, reaching the second consecutive build. GBP/USD now looks to 1.30 The rally in Cable looks well and sound at the beginning of the week backed by rising open interest and volume. Against this backdrop, another test of the psychological handle at 1.30 de figure should not be ruled out in the short-term horizon.

The AUD/USD pair filled a modest weekly bearish gap and is currently placed near Friday's swing high, around the 0.6815-20 region. The pair failed to

Bulls seemed rather unimpressed by the incoming positive trade headlines.A subdued USD demand helped limit the downside, at least for the time being.The AUD/USD pair filled a modest weekly bearish gap and is currently placed near Friday's swing high, around the 0.6815-20 region.
 
The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's strong positive move and was off to a cautious start on Monday, shrugging off the incoming positive trade-related headlines. Chinese state media Xinhua said on Sunday the two countries had "constructive talks" on trade in a high-level phone call on Saturday. Focus remains on trade developments This comes on the back of the recent comments by US officials, suggesting that they were close to securing a trade deal with China, albeit did little to impress bullish traders. However, a subdued US Dollar price action, amid a modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, helped limit any meaningful downside.
 
In absence of any fresh catalyst, investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather might prefer to wait for any fresh US-China trade developments before positioning for any firm near-term direction amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on the first day of a new trading week. Technical levels to watch  

Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting at UOB Group assessed the latest release of Q3 GDP figures. Key Quotes “Real GDP rose at a slo

Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting at UOB Group assessed the latest release of Q3 GDP figures. Key Quotes “Real GDP rose at a slower pace of 4.4% y/y in 3Q19 (from 4.9% y/y in 2Q19), in line with market consensus but above our estimate (4.1%). Year-to-date, GDP rose 4.6% in Jan-Sep”. “Private consumption was the prime driver, which grew 7.0% and contributed 4.1% pts to headline GDP in 3Q19. Other positive contributors were government consumption and net exports. All key sectors expanded except for mining and construction”. “Our preliminary estimates suggest that GDP growth could pick up to 4.5% in 4Q19 with higher seasonal spending and accelerated government spending. A turnaround in the mining sector could also alleviate the drag on growth. As such, we maintain our full-year growth forecast of 4.6% in 2019 and 4.4% in 2020”. “Given the slower trend growth below Malaysia’s potential output of 4.8% - 5.0%, we have penciled in a 25bps cut in the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) to 2.75% in 1Q20. This is to safeguard domestic growth amid lingering trade uncertainties and muted investments”.

China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY): 6.6% (October) vs 6.5%

The latest Reuters poll of 24 analysts showed on Monday, most of them see Bank Indonesia (BI), the Indonesian central bank, standing pat on its intere

The latest Reuters poll of 24 analysts showed on Monday, most of them see Bank Indonesia (BI), the Indonesian central bank, standing pat on its interest rate decision to assess the impact of the four consecutive rate cuts announced since July. Key Findings:“Twenty of 24 analysts in the poll predicted BI would keep the key rate unchanged this week at 5.00%. Four forecast another 25-bp cut to bolster growth, which slid to the weakest in more than two years in the third quarter. Analysts are divided over how long the current easing cycle will last, though most agree that it is nearing its end.” Its worth noting that “BI has cut its benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate by a total of 100 basis points (bps) in back-to-back meetings as "pre-emptive measures" to avoid a sharp downturn amid a global economic slowdown.”      

Patrik Schowitz, a global multi-asset strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, upgraded the outlook on global equities, in his latest client note pub

Patrik Schowitz, a global multi-asset strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, upgraded the outlook on global equities, in his latest client note published on Monday. The shift in the view is mainly in response to hopes for a breakthrough in Sino-US trade talks, reduced risk of a US recession and a moderately positive earnings outlook. Key Quotes: “We have held a cautious view on the outlook for equity markets for much of this year... however, the environment has shifted in recent weeks.”  “That change likely reflects several factors, which we think has some more room to run.” “Emerging market equities are now our most favored region alongside U.S. large cap equities, which we believe can do relatively well under a range of scenarios.” “Our least preferred markets are Australia and U.S. small cap equities.”

Open interest and volume in EUR futures markets rose by around 5.7K contracts and by 7.1K contracts, respectively on Friday, according to preliminary

Open interest and volume in EUR futures markets rose by around 5.7K contracts and by 7.1K contracts, respectively on Friday, according to preliminary data from CME Group. EUR/USD room for a test of the 100-day SMAEUR/USD is extending the up move on Monday supported by increasing open interest and volume. That said, the up move carries the potential to extend to levels just below the 1.1100 handle, where sits the key 100-day SMA.

In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, EUR/USD could attempt to regain the 1.1080/95 area in the very n

In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, EUR/USD could attempt to regain the 1.1080/95 area in the very near term. Key Quotes “EUR/USD has managed to stabilise around the 61.8% retracement at 1.0994. Thursdays price action constituted a key day reversal and we would allow for a rebound into the 1.1080/1.1095 band very near term. This is the location of the 55 day ma and we will need to regain this for a viable retest of the 1.1180 recent high. While capped by the 55 day ma, the market is regarded as under pressure and capable of extending the decline to the next Fibonacci support at 1.0943”. “It is possible that we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0865 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement before a sustained recovery is seen”.

EUR/USD has been recovering amid US Dollar weakness resulting from optimism on trade talks. The world's most popular currency pair enjoys significant

EUR/USD has been recovering amid US Dollar weakness resulting from optimism on trade talks. The world's most popular currency pair enjoys significant support and already eyes the next levels. The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD has a substantial cushion at 1.1049, which is a dense cluster of lines including the Simple Moving Average 100-15m, the SMA 10-one-day, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, and more. Looking up, some resistance awaits at 1.1066, which is the convergence of the SMA 5-4h, the BB 15min-Lower, and the SMA 5-15m.  Higher, euro/dollar may target 1.1112, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month, the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2, and the PP one-day R3.  Below 1.1049, EUR/USD has several robust clusters of supports, with the most notable one awaiting at 1.0991, which is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day, the previous weekly low, and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Economist at UOB Group E.Tanuwidjaja reviewed the latest trade data from Indonesia. Key Quotes “Indonesia’s trade balance unexpectedly swung back to s

Economist at UOB Group E.Tanuwidjaja reviewed the latest trade data from Indonesia. Key Quotes “Indonesia’s trade balance unexpectedly swung back to surplus in October at USD161.3mn, well exceeding market consensus (Bloomberg) of USD300bn deficit; the surprise surplus was driven by steep drop in import and better-than-expected exports’ performance. The figure marked a turnaround from the revised trade deficit of USD163.9mn in September. Despite the positive result, Indonesia needs to remain vigilant as the recent dip in imports, especially the decline in raw materials and capital goods, could suggest weakening domestic demand which may portend downside risk to the overall economic activity”. “Year to date, Indonesia’s trade balance booked a USD1.8bn deficit in the ten months from January-October, which was approximately one third of the USD5.5 billion deficit seen in the same period last year. This suggests that a narrower current account deficit (CAD) may be seen for 2019. We are keeping our CAD forecast of -2.8% of GDP this year… although risks remain for a wider-than-expected CAD given the external uncertainties such as the ongoing US-China trade tensions and down trend in commodity prices, even as we are cautiously hopeful about a rebound in investment spending following President Joko Widodo’s second term inauguration and cabinet announcement”.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 18: - Trade: High-level US and Chinese officials have held talks over the weekend and described them

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 18:
- Trade: High-level US and Chinese officials have held talks over the weekend and described them as "constructive." The mood in markets in "cautiously optimistic" with minor drops in the yen and gold. US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross expressed optimism ahead of the weekend, but President Donald Trump is yet to give his approval to the removal of tariffs.
- UK elections: The latest batch of elections polls have shown that Boris Johnson's Conservative Party has increased its lead against the opposition Labour Party. The Tories are boosted by the rapid decline of Nigel Farage's Brexit Party, which failed to field candidates in more seats than had been expected. GBP/USD is extending its gains above 1.29. Johnson and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will both address the Confederation of British Industry's conference today. See GBP/USD Forecast: All aboard the Boris bus? Downside momentum dims outlook
- EUR/USD has been recovering from the lows. European Central Bank members Luis de Guindos, Phillip Lane, and Pablo Hernández de Cos will be speaking today. See EUR/USD Forecast: Tepid recovery doesn’t affect the bearish case
- Fed: Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco branch of the Federal Reserve, has supported keeping interest rates low to support the labor market. The Fed's meeting minutes are due out later this week.
- Oil prices are holding onto most gains, as US output may be peaking. The Baker Hughes rig count has decreased to 674.
- Cryptocurrencies have been on the back foot, extending their erosion. Bitcoin has dropped below $8,500. More Dollar Ends Bruising Week - More Losses Ahead?

FX option expiries for Nov 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1055 1.3bn 1.1145 761m - GBP/USD: G

FX option expiries for Nov 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1055 1.3bn 1.1145 761m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2885 210m 1.3000 255m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.00 485m 109.00 485m

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the downside and breaks below the key support at 98.00 the figure. US Dollar Index

DXY comes under pressure below the 98.00 ark.US-China trade deal remains in centre stage.FOMC minutes, Philly Fed index, U-Mich gauge next of relevance.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the downside and breaks below the key support at 98.00 the figure. US Dollar Index in 2-week lows The index has started the week on the negative footing, extending the downside for the fourth consecutive session to levels below the 98.00 handle. Markets participants remain optimistic on a positive outcome from the US-China ‘Phase One’ deal and this is sustaining the still upbeat sentiment in the risk-associated complex. In addition, mixed results from the US docket as of late have somewhat tempered the rally in the buck and dragged US yields lower, all forcing DXY to correct lower from last week’s tops in the boundaries of 98.50. Moving forward, the FOMC minutes (Wednesday), the key Philly Fed (Thursday) and the final U-Mich index (Friday) will be the salient events later in the week. What to look for around USD The index seems to have charted a short-term top in the 98.50 region for the time being. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade dispute are expected to remain as the exclusive driver when comes to price action in the global markets. Other than that, investors stay focused on the recent US results in key fundamentals amidst declining yields and the steepening of the 2y-10y yield curve seen as of late. Moving to US politics, markets keep ignoring the Trump’s impeachment developments, while the impact on the FX space remains muted. On the broader view, however, the outlook on the greenback still looks constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is losing 0.06% at 97.94 and faces immediate contention at 97.81 (21-day SMA) seconded by 97.55 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1). On the flip side, a breakout of 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1).

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their quick reaction Thailand’s Q3 GDP report released earlier this Monday. Key Quotes

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their quick reaction Thailand’s Q3 GDP report released earlier this Monday. Key Quotes: “Thailand’s GDP expanded by 2.4% y/y in Q3, a marginal improvement from the 2.3% recorded in Q2, but still below market expectations. We are nudging down our growth forecasts to 2.6% and 3.0% (previously 2.9% and 3.3%) for 2019 and 2020 respectively following today’s weak outturn, which brought average growth in the first three quarters of 2019 to just 2.5% y/y. A drawdown in inventories was a key drag on Thailand’s growth in Q3. Final domestic demand improved slightly, while net exports were a positive contributor to growth. The bottom line is that Thailand’s growth has bottomed and a gradual recovery should follow. The BoT’s 25bp cut at its 6 November meeting likely marked the end of its easing cycle.”

Following its bounce off 100-day SMA, USD/CHF rises past-38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside while taking the bids to 0.9900.

USD/CHF takes another U-turn from 100-day SMA, takes the bids above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.61.8% Fibonacci retracement acts as the key support while 200-day SMA holds the pair’s recovery confined.Following its bounce off 100-day SMA, USD/CHF rises past-38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October upside while taking the bids to 0.9900 by the press time ahead of the European session on Monday. Considering the pair’s recent recovery from near-term strong support, prices could revisit 0.9925/30 resistance area ahead of confronting 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.9942. However, 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.9952 continues to act as strong upside barrier. Should there be a clear run-up beyond 0.9952, the monthly top surrounding 0.9980 and 1.0000 could act as buffers prior to fueling the quote towards October month high close to 1.0030. Meanwhile, pair’s daily closing below 100-day SMA level of 0.9880 can fetch it towards the previous month's bottom nearing 0.9835. Though, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and September month lows near 0.9800 could please sellers bears afterward. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Recovery expected  

Amid lack of certainty on the US-China trade deal prospects and China’s first Repo rate cut since 2015, the market mood remained cautiously optimistic

Amid lack of certainty on the US-China trade deal prospects and China’s first Repo rate cut since 2015, the market mood remained cautiously optimistic in Asia, starting out this week on Monday. Moreover, the ongoing Hong Kong civil turmoil also kept the risk tone somewhat fragile. As a result, the Asian equities traded mixed while the weakness in the US Treasury yields left the US dollar broadly undermined. Most G10 currencies stuck to tight trading ranges, although the Cable emerged the top gainer and headed towards 1.2950 on increased hopes of UK PM Johnson’s re-election. The weakest of all was the Aussie, followed by the anti-risk Japanese yen. AUD/USD pair consolidated the recent recovery above the 0.6800 level while USD/JPY traded with mild gains around 108.80, with the upside capped by the 200-DMA at 109.00. The Kiwi remained modestly flat around the 0.64 handle. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair clocked fresh one-week highs at 1.1065. On the other hand, USD/CAD lacked momentum above 1.3200, as oil prices remained flat under the $ 58 mark. Gold prices, however, eased towards $ 1460 on the Chinese rate cut announcement. Main Topics in Asia UK election: Poll shows Conservatives hold the top spot – GBP/USD Positive US Pres. Trump hails 'cash' to farmers, U.S. aid in China trade war – Reuters China and US had constructive discussions about phase one deal – Xinhua UK’s Raab: It’s not “remotely likely” that UK could leave without a deal, Cable tested 1.2930 Hong Kong’s civil unrest only gets worse, university campus entrance set ablaze after all night stand-off Fed’s Daly: “We can keep the policy rate accommodative” UK housing market hit by Brexit and election double-whammy - Rightmove survey 11th US-China Political Leaders Dialogue kicks off in Beijing – Global Times Sources: US to extend license for its companies to continue business with Huawei - Reuters Senior US Official: Monitoring events in Hong Kong, condemns “unjustified use of force China’s DefenceMin Spokesman Wu: Ending Hong Kong violence and restoring order is the most pressing task Asian stocks flash mixed signals amid trade hopes, Hong Kong protests Key Focus Ahead We have a quiet start to the relatively calm week ahead, in terms of the macroeconomic releases and hence, the UK political updates and US-China trade developments will remain the central focus. As for Monday’s EUR calendar, the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers will headline alongside the German Bundesbank (Buba) monthly economic report. The UK docket remains absolutely data-empty while the US session also sees an absence of significant first-tier economic news. Key ECB-speak ahead 0900 GMT – ECB’s De Guindos 1300 GMT - ECB De Cos 1320 GMT – ECB’s Lane EUR/USD sits at weekly tops above 1.1050, eyes on ECB-speak, trade EUR/USD is seen building on its last week’ s recovery above the 1.1050 level, having hit weekly highs at 1.1065 on mild US dollar weakness across the board. The bulls consolidate the latest uptick, awaiting fresh trading impetus heading into the European open. GBP/USD confronts near-term key resistance amid Brexit optimism GBP/USD cheers increasing odds of Tory leadership. US-China trade hopes, military tension and Russian meddling in British politics keep the gains in check. UK PM’s speech, US Housing numbers and trade/Brexit headlines will be in focus. GBP/USD Forecast: All aboard the Boris bus? Downside momentum dims outlook GBP/USD has been rising alongside the Conservatives' reelection chances. Opinion polls, trade headlines, and further Fed news are set to determine the next cable moves. Mid-November's daily chart is pointing to falling momentum for the pound. UK PM Johnson will pledge an end to Brexit uncertainty at CBI event later on Monday Speaking at the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) annual conference scheduled later on Monday, the UK PM Johnson is expected to show his commitment to end the Brexit uncertainty that has ‘paralyzed’ the economy.  

Global credit rating agency Moody recently crossed wires while conveying its economic forecasts for the Australian economy.

Global credit rating agency Moody recently crossed wires while conveying its economic forecasts for the Australian economy. The rating giant downgraded Australia’s growth forecast for the year 202 to 2.2% while forecasting a relatively steady unemployment rate at 5.0%. While the AUD/USD pair shows less reaction to the news, trading around 0.6810 by the press time of early Monday, this highlights the risk of another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). In doing so, the same increases the importance of Tuesday’s RBA monetary policy meeting minutes for the Aussie traders.

USD/INR bounces off 50-bar EMA while taking the bids to 71.72 during a pre-European session on Monday.

USD/INR bounces off 50-bar EMA.100-bar EMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement and a two-week-old rising trend line together constitute strong support.USD/INR bounces off 50-bar EMA while taking the bids to 71.72 during a pre-European session on Monday. The pair now heads towards the monthly top nearing 72.37 whereas the September month peak near 72.63 and December month high around 72.82 can entertain buyers ahead of diverting them to 73.00 round-figure. On the contrary, pair’s declines below 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 71.58 could drag the quote to 71.40/35 key support confluence including 100-bar EMA, two-week-old rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement of September-November upside. If bears manage to conquer 71.35 on a daily closing basis, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 71.12, 70.70 and monthly bottom close to 70.50 could come back to the charts. USD/INR 4-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

EUR/USD is seen building on its last week’ s recovery above the 1.1050 level, having hit weekly highs at 1.1065 on mild US dollar weakness across the

EUR/USD buoyed by USD, T-yields weakness amid trade uncertainty. Bulls could face rejection at 100-DMA near 1.1095 in the short-term. ECB-speak, Buba monthly report and trade developments next of note. EUR/USD is seen building on its last week’ s recovery above the 1.1050 level, having hit weekly highs at 1.1065 on mild US dollar weakness across the board. The bulls consolidate the latest uptick, awaiting fresh trading impetus heading into the European open. EUR/USD: 50-DMA at 1.1042 could cap the immediate downside The shared currency continues to keep the upper edge against the US dollar for the third straight day on Monday, as a lack of clear signals on the likely US-China trade deal combined with mixed US fundamentals continue to weigh on the US Treasury yields, in turn leaving the greenback depressed vs. its main rivals. Despite the recent optimistic comments from the both the US and Chinese officials, uncertainty still prevails whether both sides will reach the Phase One of the trade deal or if the US will refrain from the Dec 15 tariff hike. Therefore, the market mood remains dampened, weighing on the risk assets such as the Treasury yields. On the EUR-side of the equation, the Eurozone October inflation came in as expected, up by 0.7% YoY and core CPI up by 1.1%, which supported the ongoing upbeat momentum in the common currency. Looking ahead, the bulls target the 100-DMA now located at 1.1093 should the recovery momentum extend. On the flip side, the 50-DMA at 1.1042 could guard the downside if the ECB speakers bolster dovish expectations. However, the US-China trade developments will continue to remain the main market driver.   EUR/USD Technical levels to consider  

Rising expectations of a Tory leadership after the December election propels the GBP/USD pair to confront a month old falling trend line resistance.

GBP/USD cheers increasing odds of Tory leadership.US-China trade hopes, military tension and Russian meddling in British politics keep the gains in check.UK PM’s speech, US Housing numbers and trade/Brexit headlines will be in focus.Rising expectations of a Tory leadership after the December election propels the GBP/USD pair to confront a month old falling trend line resistance while taking rounds to 1.2925 ahead of London open on Monday. Even so, catalysts challenging the broad risk-tone, as well as hardships for the UK PM, limit the pair’s further upside. Survation polling joined the league of leading surveyors plotting nearly 40% odds of another Conservative victory in the United Kingdom’s (UK) election. The first of its polls show around 14 points of a margin between the Tories and the opposition Labour party. Even so, doubts related to the Russian meddling in British politics, due to the Conservatives’ refrain from releasing the report before election, keep the cable’s gains under check. Also, geopolitical tension between the United States (US) and China, concerning Hong Kong and Taiwan, raises questions over the recent optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. With this, the market’s trade sentiment remains sluggish with the US 10-year treasury yields taking rounds to 1.82% while most Asian shares flashing mixed signals. Investors will now concentrate on the British Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s speech at Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) annual conference for fresh political impulse. On the economic calendar, the US NAHB Housing Market Index numbers for November, expected to remain at 71, will occupy the thin line of statistics. However, trade/politics headlines will keep the driver’s seat. Technical Analysis Unless providing a daily closing beyond the four-week-old descending resistance line, at 1.2930, prices are less likely to aim for 1.3000, which in turn highlights the weeklong rising trend line at 1.2850 as immediate support to watch.  

In the view of the analysts at ING Bank, the Bank of Thailand will use firmer growth as an argument for leaving policy on hold in the rest of 2019 and

In the view of the analysts at ING Bank, the Bank of Thailand will use firmer growth as an argument for leaving policy on hold in the rest of 2019 and throughout 2020”. Key Quotes:“Thailand’s economy expanded 2.4% year-on-year in 3Q19, a slightly better rate than 2.3% in 2Q. It was still short of the 2.7% median expectation in the Bloomberg survey. 0.1% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) growth moderated from 0.4% in the previous quarter, which was the slowest pace in the last four quarters. We remain sceptical about further BoT easing from Asia’s arguably most hawkish central bank. The latest cut has pushed the policy rate to its lowest level ever, 1.25%. We anticipate that there will be stiff resistance from policymakers to nudge it further, and these latest GDP data may be put forward as one reason for them to leave rates unchanged.” 

Despite the US and Chinese media flashing trade positive statements off-late, Asian stocks stay subdued.

Trade sentiment remains subdued as Hong Kong protests dim optimism surrounding the US-China phase one deal.Bangkok meeting between the US and China’s defence personnel, the US-Iran tension adds to the markets geopolitical tension.Despite the US and Chinese media flashing trade positive statements off-late, Asian stocks stay subdued. The reason could be attributed to geopolitical tension surrounding Hong Kong, Taiwan and Iran, not to forget a lack of major data/events. During the weekend, US President Donald Trump joined hands with top-tier diplomats to convey optimism regarding phase one trade deal with China. The same was recently followed by Global Times headlines relying on the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He’s updates after the meeting. However, both the economies continue to remain at loggerheads when it comes to their defence personnel’s meeting in Bangkok. China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and the United States (US) Defence Secretary Mark Esper discussed the importance of military relations for the US-China ties. The former couldn’t refrain from threat to the US Defence Secretary when it came to issues like Taiwan while also pressing over Hong Kong violence. Elsewhere, Reuters relied on an anonymous Trump administration official to that the US is monitoring events in Hong Kong, and condemns "unjustified use of force." With this, Asian share markets stay sluggish with the MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares flashing 0.5% gains but stocks from Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Indonesia marking smaller profits by the press time. Further, Chinese benchmarks remain overall in profits while India’s BSE SENSEX seesaws near a no-change mark. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yields also remain unchanged to 1.82% while S&P 500 Futures mark a few points down to 3,117 by the time of writing. Although trade/political headlines are likely to dominate near-term market moves, comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, German Buba Monthly Report and the US NAHB Housing Market Index for November will decorate the economic calendar.

USD/JPY remains positive above 200-bar SMA while taking the bids to 108.83 amid initial trading hours on Monday.

USD/JPY stays above 200-bar SMA amid bullish MACD.Monthly high holds the key to 110.00.50% of Fibonacci retracement acts as additional support.USD/JPY remains positive above 200-bar SMA while taking the bids to 108.83 amid initial trading hours on Monday. The pair nears a short-term falling resistance line, at 108.95, a break of which could escalate the recent recovery to the monthly high close to 109.50. However, May 30 top close to 109.95 and 110.00 round-figure could question the pair’s further upside. In a case where buyers keep the reins beyond 110.00, May 21 high of 110.67 will come back on the chart. Also supporting the price run-up is the bullish signal by the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator. Meanwhile, a downside break of 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), at 108.40 now, can drag the quote to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October-November upside, at 108.00. Additionally, the monthly bottom surrounding 107.88 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 107.60 could entertain sellers afterward. USD/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

Early on Monday, China’s Global Times tweeted updates of a meeting between China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and the US Defence Secretary.

Early on Monday, China’s Global Times tweeted updates of a meeting between China’s Defence Minister Wei Fenghe and the United States (US) Defence Secretary Mark Esper. The Chinese media said that both the defence personnel agreed over the military relations as a crucial part of China-US ties. Key quotes "Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe met with US Defense Secretary on Monday in Bangkok, both agreeing military relations are a crucial part of China-US ties, and that the two militaries should contribute to pushing for cooperation and stability together." FX implications Considering both the nation’s progress at the trade front and disagreement over Hong Kong protests, statements like this could positively contribute to the market’s risk sentiment. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw near 1.82% while stocks in China stay positive by the press time.

The EUR/USD pair’s successful recovery from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement flashes a seven-day high of 1.1065 by the press time of early Monday.

EUR/USD extends recovery from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Overbought RSI conditions add strength to the resistances.The EUR/USD pair’s successful recovery from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement flashes a seven-day high of 1.1065 by the press time of early Monday. Even so, overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index join 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of October month rise to question pair’s further upside. Additionally, late-October low near 1.1070/75 and November 06 high around 1.1095 could question pair’s run-up beyond 1.1065, if not then 1.1130 and the previous month high around 1.1180 could lure buyers. Alternatively, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.1030 and 1.1000 respectively could limit pair’s near-term declines ahead of October 08 and 03 lows near 1.0940. If at all sellers refrain from respecting 1.0940, October month low surrounding 1.0880 will be the sellers’ choice. EUR/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

In its latest quarterly policy report published on Saturday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the following key points. China has no cond

In its latest quarterly policy report published on Saturday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted the following key points. China has no conditions for continuous inflation or deflation as the government's macro policies are taking effect. The domestic economy is facing downward pressure, and its endogenous growth momentum should be further enhanced. PBOC will step up counter-cyclical adjustments while staying away from using a deluge of stimulus policies. Efforts should be enhanced to prevent the spread of the expectations for inflation. The headlines have little to no impact on the CNY markets, as USD/CNY trades on the front foot near 7.0110 despite a stronger Yuan setting by the PBOC.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) recently came out with its analysis on the AUD/NZD pair.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) recently came out with its analysis on the AUD/NZD pair. The bank considers the pair’s recent run-up as similar to the ‘Santa rally’, the year-end buying, which in turn pushes them to avoid favoring any long positions until early next year. Key quotes “A ‘Santa rally’ is the tendency for equity markets to strengthen into yearend. In this piece, we explore the extent of this seasonal support in equity markets, and whether it extends to currencies.” “For equities, we found Santa comes bearing gifts more often than not. Australia’s All Ordinaries finished the holiday period higher than it started around 75% of the time.” “For FX markets, the pattern is less clear, but the NZD appears to be a bigger beneficiary of year-end buying than the AUD. The AUD/NZD cross has ended the holiday period higher only nine times in the last three decades (a 30% hit rate).” “We still like AUD/NZD as a relative economic play, however seasonal strength in the NZD is reason to hold off entering any long positions until early next year.” “The near-term fortunes of the AUD are delicately poised.” “On one hand, the global outlook is improving amid an improvement in liquidity conditions. On the other hand, the domestic labour market appears to be softening alongside a more cautious consumer.” “Despite these domestic challenges, we think what happens offshore is more likely to determine the year-end trajectory for the AUD.”

Following the comments from a senior Trump Administration official, the Chinese Defence Ministry Spokesman Wu is on the wires now, via Reuters, expres

Following the comments from a senior Trump Administration official, the Chinese Defence Ministry Spokesman Wu is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his concerns on the Hong Kong unrest. Wu said ending the violence and restoring order is the most pressing task in Hong Kong. Senior US Official: Monitoring events in Hong Kong, condemns “unjustified use of force

A senior Trump Administration official came out on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US are monitoring events in Hong Kong, and con

A senior Trump Administration official came out on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US are monitoring events in Hong Kong, and condemns "unjustified use of force." He urged All sides to refrain from violence. Hong Kong’s civil unrest only gets worse, university campus entrance set ablaze after all night stand-off Sources: US to extend license for its companies to continue business with Huawei - Reuters

Reuters quoted two sources familiar with the deliberations on Saturday, the US administration is set to issue a two-week extension of a license allowi

Reuters quoted two sources familiar with the deliberations on Saturday, the US administration is set to issue a two-week extension of a license allowing US companies to continue doing business with China’s Huawei Technologies Co Ltd.

The Chinese news outlet, the Global Times, is out with the latest headlines, citing that “China and the US may be deadlocked in a trade war, but dialo

The Chinese news outlet, the Global Times, is out with the latest headlines, citing that “China and the US may be deadlocked in a trade war, but dialogue is ongoing. The 11th US-China Political Leaders Dialogue kicked off in Beijing on Monday. How to defuse trade and political tensions is top of the agenda.” The market is seeing a return of risk appetite in Asia on expectations of some positive on the US-China trade front, as the Dialogue gets underway. Meanwhile, the PBOC’s attempt to prop up the slowing economy by announcing a minor cut to its seven-day Reverse Repos also offers some support to the Asian equity markets.

According to the analysts at Westpac, the October month MI Leading Index is likely to come in weaker once again following September’s -0.92%. Key Quot

According to the analysts at Westpac, the October month MI Leading Index is likely to come in weaker once again following September’s -0.92%. Key Quotes: “The Leading Index growth rate fell more materially below trend in September, to –0.92% from –0.24% in August. The signal indicates growth is likely to remain below trend through the first half of 2020. The October update looks likely to see another weak read. It will include softer component updates for the ASX200; the Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations Index and total hours worked. It will also see more weak reads on US industrial production and commodity prices (-2% in AUD terms vs -3.7% last month). These will be partially offset by firmer reads for the Westpac-MI Consumer Expectations Index, dwelling approvals and a widening yield spread.”

Given the USD/IDR pair’s recent pullback from short-term key support confluence, buyers cheer 14,076 as a quote amid early Monday trading in Asia.

USD/IDR bounced off 21-day EMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.A nearly two-week-old rising trend line adds to the support.38.2% Fibonacci retracement, a falling resistance line act as key upside barriers.Given the USD/IDR pair’s recent pullback from short-term key support confluence, buyers cheer 14,076 as a quote amid early Monday trading in Asia. Considering the pair’s recent recovery from 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 23.9% Fibonacci retracement of August-September declines, prices are likely rising towards 14,150 mark including 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, a downward sloping trend line since late-August, at 14,200, could keep the pair’s further upside in check, if not then October month high near 14,275 will gain market attention. On the downside break of 14,050/45 support confluence, an ascending support line since November 05, will restrict pair’s declines around 14,012 ahead of highlighting 14,000 round-figure to sellers. In a case where bears dominate below 14,000, lows marked in July and September around 13,880 will be the key to watch. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Recovery expected  

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Muller (a hawk) was on the wires over the weekend, via Blooming, making some unexpectedly dov

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Muller (a hawk) was on the wires over the weekend, via Blooming, making some unexpectedly dovish remarks on the central bank’s monetary policy. Key Quotes: ECB could buy other assets if the economic situation in the eurozone deteriorates significantly. Right now, we are doing unconventional things. You could -- of course -- imagine even more unconventional things if the situation gets really bad. There are ways to go beyond the government bonds, and a little bit of corporates and other assets that we are buying now.” The comments show that the central bank is alarmed by the deteriorating Eurozone growth outlook and stands prepared to do more if the situation worsens. The EUR/USD pair is unperturbed the above comments and keeps its range above the 1.1050 level.

On Monday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0037 versus Friday’s fix at 7.0091.

On Monday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0037 versus Friday’s fix at 7.0091. The PBOC injected CNY 180bn via 7-day Reverse Repo while no Reverse Repos matured today.

Based on the positioning data is for the week ending November 12, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) says that the leveraged funds sold USD.

Based on the positioning data is for the week ending November 12, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) says that the leveraged funds sold the US dollar (USD) whereas asset managers bought the greenback after five consecutive weeks of selling. Key quotes "Leveraged funds reverted to selling USD, while asset manager turned buyers after five straight weeks of selling. USD positioning will likely remain tied to incoming US data and developments on the trade deal front." "Funds and asset managers changed stances on the euro (EUR); the former bought while the latter sold. Sluggish euro area growth is expected to underlie EUR weakness, while the British pound (GBP) has gained some ground on expectations of a win for the Conservative Party at the upcoming elections." "Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF) saw further overall selling. On commodity currencies, funds were buyers in Canadian dollar (CAD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD). With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprising markets by keeping the OCR unchanged, further unwinding of NZD short positions are likely."

Analysts at Westpac offer their review on the US economic data released last Friday. Key Quotes: “US Oct retail sales were relatively solid and close

Analysts at Westpac offer their review on the US economic data released last Friday. Key Quotes: “US Oct retail sales were relatively solid and close to estimates. Headline sales rose +0.3%m/m (est. +0.2%m/m). Although sales ex-auto and gas missed at +0.1%m/m (est. +0.3%m/m), the important control group met expectations at +0.3%m/m, albeit with a slight downward revision to Sep. US Oct industrial production headline fell -0.8%m/m (vs est. -0.4%m/m) as the impact of the General Motors strike (the longest since 1970) added to trade tensions. However, the GM impact will unwind in coming months and the manufacturing side was slightly less negative than expected at -0.6%m/m (est. -0.7%m/m). The NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey, which has been decidedly volatile earlier this year, was only slightly lower in Nov (est. 6, prior 4). On the positive side, new orders and employment were a touch firmer.”

With its sustained trading below nearly three-week-old rising trend line, USD/CAD stays on the back foot while taking rounds to 1.3220 during early Monday.

USD/CAD stays below near-term key support (now resistance).200-day SMA adds resistance to the upside.With its sustained trading below nearly three-week-old rising trend line, USD/CAD stays on the back foot while taking rounds to 1.3220 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair nears 50% Fibonacci retracement level of September-October downside, at 1.3210, a break of which will shift sellers’ attention to 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), close to 1.3200. Given the bears’ dominance past-1.3200, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3170 and monthly bottom surrounding 1.3115 will return to the charts. Meanwhile, pair’s pullback beyond support-turned-resistance, at 1.3245, needs to cross 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3255 to confront 200-day SMA, at 1.3276. Assuming the bull’s capacity to conquer 1.3276 on a daily closing basis, October month high near 1.3350 could become buyers’ favorites. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

The latest survey conducted by the UK’s property website Rightmove showed that the number of British properties put up on offer has fallen dramaticall

The latest survey conducted by the UK’s property website Rightmove showed that the number of British properties put up on offer has fallen dramatically to a decade lows 10 amid Brexit and election uncertainty, per Reuters. Key Findings: “There were 14.9% fewer properties put on sale in the four weeks to Nov. 9 than in the same period last year. That was the biggest annual fall since August 2009, shortly after the global financial crisis. The average price of property coming to market rose by an annual 0.3%, in line with other measures showing house prices almost flat-lining, and the number of sales agreed was down by 2.9%.”

Increasing optimism surrounding the Conservatives’ victory in the UK’s December election, coupled with US-China news, fail to lure GBP/JPY buyers.

GBP/JPY fails to cheer optimism surrounding UK politics, US-China phase one deal.Protests in Hong Kong, US-Iran tension keep market fears alive.Increasing optimism surrounding the Conservatives’ victory in the UK’s December election, coupled with positive headlines from the US-China trade front, falls short of ignoring market’s fear emanating from the Hong Kong protests and tension between Iran and the United States (US). With this, the GBP/JPY pair steps back from multi-day high to 140.45 by the press time of Monday’s Asian session. Given the Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage’s announcement to take down 43 additional candidates from the constituencies where Labour won, odds of the Tory leadership after December election has rallied. The latest polls show more than 40% surveyors supporting the fact. In addition to reducing political uncertainty at home, Tory leadership could also end Brexit dilemma, as cited by Reuters while relying on the extracts of Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s speech in today’s CBI event. Even so, the pair traders are challenged on the geopolitical grounds as protests in Hong Kong turn a week old and the United States (US) criticizes Iran of supporting terrorism while developing nuclear weapons and missiles, as per the Sky News. On the contrary, trade positive headlines from the US and China, coupled with the cancellation of the US-South Korean military exercise to entice North Korea back to the negotiation table, as said by China’s Xinhua, challenge the risk aversion. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields stop the recent upside to 1.82% while S&P 500 Futures seesaw around -0.10% area by the press time. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events on the economic calendar could keep traders concentrated on trade/Brexit/geopolitical headlines for near-term direction. Technical Analysis Despite the recent pullback, the quote holds the break of the monthly trend line, at 140.20 now, which in turn portrays its strength to challenge October month high of 141.51.  

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly crossed the wires on Saturday, via Reuters, and said that low inflation gives the FOMC space to keep interest ra

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly crossed the wires on Saturday, via Reuters, and said that low inflation gives the FOMC space to keep interest rates low, which should result in higher employment. Her dovish comments come ahead of this Wednesday FOMC minutes.   Additional Quotes: "We can keep the policy rate accommodative and we can both find full employment experientially, by waiting for it to show up in wage and price inflation, and we can treat the problem of muted inflation pressures and get ourselves back up to target." “Low rates appear to be delivering some benefits - eg. improving hiring prospects.” "I remain surprised that wage growth hasn't picked up more."  "If we haven't seen it (low unemployment) push up wage growth more than it has, I don't think we've achieved full employment."

The USD/JPY pair is seen treading water around 108.75 region, as a sense of caution prevails in Monday’s Asian trading amid escalating Hong Kong viole

USD/JPY consolidates last week’s rebound below 109.00.Hong Kong unrest weighs on risk sentiment in Monday’s Asian trades.All eyes to remain on US-China trade negotiations amid light US calendar. The USD/JPY pair is seen treading water around 108.75 region, as a sense of caution prevails in Monday’s Asian trading amid escalating Hong Kong violence. Meanwhile, the US-China trade negotiations continue to remain the central focus, with mixed messages delivered by both sides last week.  The US officials continue to sound optimistic about a likely trade deal while shifting demands from Chinese officials have led to some trade uncertainty, as we near the Dec 15 US tariffs hike on China’s imports. On the Hong Kong civil unrest, the situation is extremely fluid and unstable after the protestors remain defiant and set Hong Kong’s Polytechnic University entrance ablaze after the police trapped hundreds of them in the University. Therefore, the risk-off sentiment emerges as the underlying theme at the start of the week so far, with S&P 500 futures down -0.15%, Treasury yields losing nearly 0.50% while the Asian equity markets trade with mild losses. The anti-risk Yen, thus, remains underpinned, keeping a break above the 109 handle (200-DMA/ round number) elusive. Further, the US dollar extends its recent bearish momentum across its main peers amid losses in the Treasury yields, in turn, weighing down on USD/JPY. Markets eagerly await some clarity on the US-China trade front and FOMC minutes for fresh trading impetus, as the US calendar appears light this week. USD/JPY Technical levels to consider  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) up to 0.3% in November from previous -0.2%

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.6% to -1.3% in November

Despite marking the best day in a month on Friday, AUD/JPY sellers sneak in around 100-day EMA as the pair declines to 74.07.

AUD/JPY pulls back from 100-ay EMA.Bearish MACD shifts market attention to near-term key supports.Despite marking the best day in a month on Friday, AUD/JPY sellers sneak in around 100-day EMA as the pair declines to 74.07 amid initial Asian trading on Monday. In addition to the pair’s failure to cross key Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the bearish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) also favors the pair’s extended pullback towards 50-day EMA level around 73.95. Though, an upward sloping trend line since August 26, at 73.44 now, could restrict the quote’s further downside, if not then 73.00 and early-October top near 72.55 could flash on bear’s radar. Alternatively, pair’s sustained daily closing beyond 100-day EMA level of 74.18 can trigger fresh run-up to November 07 low surrounding 74.60 whereas 200-day EMA, close to 75.45 will be in the spotlight afterward. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) opened the week on a positive note, having refreshed two-month highs at 57.98, as the US-China trade deal optimism continue

Oil renews two-month tops amid US-China trade deal hopes. Aramco’s IPO to keep the prices buoyed in the week ahead. Focus will remain on trade developments and US weekly supplies.WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) opened the week on a positive note, having refreshed two-month highs at 57.98, as the US-China trade deal optimism continues to underpin the market sentiment amid a sharp drop in US Rigs Count and Aramco’s IPO offer. On Friday, the US Administration official hinted at the US-China trade progress and said that a trade deal now looks more likely, boosting the overall risk sentiment that sent the key Wall Street indices to record highs. The risk-on market profile benefited the higher-yielding oil as well, as the prices rose nearly 1% last Friday. Moreover, bullish Baker and Hughes US weekly Rigs Count data also bolstered the renewed upside in the black gold. The data showed a fourth straight weekly decline in the rigs count, coming in at 674 vs. 684 previous. The barrel of WTI, currently, continues to sustain the upside, despite the US crude inventory build seen last week. The official weekly US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Stocks data showed last Thursday that the US crude stockpiles rose by 2.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.649 million-barrel rise. Is Aramco’s IPO really the oil industry’s holy grail? The buoyant tone around the commodity can be also attributed to the Saudi oil giant, Aramco’s, IPO offier that opened on Sunday and will run through until December 4, just before the OPEC meeting in Vienna. In the week ahead, the US-China trade developments will be closely eyed alongside the US weekly oil supply reports and Aramco news to gauge the next direction in the prices. WTI Levels to watch    

With the geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and Iran crossing wires, optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal seems to fail in luring Gold buyers.

Gold traders struggle over mixed catalysts.US-China trade optimism confronts geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong, Iran.Recently mixed messages from the global central bankers add to the safe-haven moves.With the geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and Iran crossing wires, optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal seems to fail in luring the Gold sellers. As a result, the yellow metal takes rounds to $1,468 during early Monday morning in Asia. The latest statements from the United States (US) policymakers, including President Donald Trump and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, have been quite upbeat as far as the phase one trade deal with China is concerned. On the other hand, China’s Xinhua also quoted Vice Premier Liu He to confirm that both the sides had constructive talks. Even so, the market’s risk-off prevails amid escalating protests in Hong Kong and the US alleging Iran to support terrorism, via developing nuclear weapons and missile programs, as said by the Sky News. Adding to the investor uncertainty is recent policy signals from the leading global central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While RBNZ’s surprise no rate cut couldn’t stop Governor Adrian Orr from leaving the doors open for further rate cuts needed, downbeat fundamentals signal additional easing bias of the RBA. Further, Fedspeak has been upbeat off-late with the present policy gaining more applauds that usual. Given the absence of major data/events on the economic calendar, traders will look towards trade/political headlines to determine near term risk sentiment. It’s worth mentioning that S&P 500 Futures is -0.12% by the press time. Technical Analysis While a 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near $1,463 limits the bullion’s immediate declines, 50-day EMA near $1,483, followed by $1,500 round-figure, could keep short-term buyers away.  

With the GBP/USD buyers’ failure to cross nearly a one-month-old falling trend line, a short-term rising support line gains market attention.

GBP/USD stays below the short-term key resistance line despite witnessing a gap-up opening.The one-week-old rising trend line can act as immediate support while 1.3000 could keep luring buyers.With the GBP/USD buyers’ failure to cross nearly a one-month-old falling trend line, a short-term rising support line gains market attention. The quote seesaws near 1.2917 during the early Asian session on Monday. Considering the fundamentals, today’s speech from the United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is likely to offer another upside push to the cable after recently positive sentiment favored the pair’s run-up. Read: UK PM Johnson will pledge an end to Brexit uncertainty at CBI event later on Monday Technically, a week-long ascending trend line, at 1.2850, will be the immediate concern for sellers ahead of an upward sloping trend line since mid-October, around 1.2800, followed by 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2740. In a case prices decline below 1.2740, bears will target 1.2700 and October 14 low at 1.2515. On the contrary, 1.3000 and the previous month high around 1.3015 can question bulls even if they manage to cross the aforementioned resistance line at 1.2930. Also doubting the pair’s upside is overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI). GBP/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Speaking at the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) annual conference scheduled later on Monday, the UK PM Johnson is expected to show his commi

Speaking at the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) annual conference scheduled later on Monday, the UK PM Johnson is expected to show his commitment to end the Brexit uncertainty that has ‘paralyzed’ the economy.  He is also likely to pitch the business leaders with tax breaks worth GBP 1bn, including cutting tax on business properties, reducing an employment tax, boosting tax relief on construction and cutting tax on research and development. According to advance extracts, as cited by Reuters, Johnson will say, "Britain stuck in gridlock and our economy stuck in first gear. Extension to extension. Marching business up to the top of the hill, only to march them down again." "With a Conservative majority government, you can be sure we will Get Brexit Done and leave with the new deal that is already agreed – ending the uncertainty and confusion that has paralysed our economy," Johnson will add. His comments are only likely to add to the latest bullish momentum seen in the pound, as the GBP/USD pair makes it way towards the 1.2950 level. UK’s Raab: It’s not “remotely likely” that UK could leave without a deal, Cable tested 1.2930 UK election: Poll shows Conservatives hold the top spot – GBP/USD Positive

Despite a start to a fresh week, the reports of the ongoing Hong Kong civil unrest fail to die down, with the violence escalated, in fact on Monday, a

Despite a start to a fresh week, the reports of the ongoing Hong Kong civil unrest fail to die down, with the violence escalated, in fact on Monday, as the defiant protestors say that they will never give up. Key Details (via Reuters): “Hong Kong police on Monday trapped hundreds of protesters inside a major university, sealing off roads in the area after almost two straight days of standoffs that have raised fears of a bloody showdown with both sides refusing to back down. Police threatened to fire live bullets if "rioters" did not stop using lethal weapons in the latest flare-up in anti-government protests that have convulsed the Chinese-ruled city for five months. The protesters numbering about 200 people have assembled an arsenal of petrol bombs and bows and arrows to resist. Protesters have set fires on bridges leading to Hong Kong Polytechnic University as they try to keep police from advancing on their campus stronghold. In Monday's statement, police warned people whom they described as rioters to stop using lethal weapons to attack officers and to halt other acts of violence, saying officers would respond with force and possibly live bullets if necessary.”

With the escalating tension in Hong Kong and an absence of major data/events at home, AUD/USD shrugs off the latest trade positive headlines from US and China.

AUD/USD fails to cheer US-China trade positive headlines amid Hong Kong protests.An absence of major data/event, no exact details of US-China trade progress also question buyers.With the escalating tension in Hong Kong and an absence of major data/events at home, AUD/USD shrugs off the latest trade positive headlines from US and China. The quote takes rounds to 0.6815 by the press time of initial Asian morning session on Monday. While the United States (US) President Donald Trump cited China’s big agriculture buying to portray the optimism surrounding “phase one” discussions, media reports from the dragon nation also cite Friday’s phone call between the two sides as constructive. Though, neither the Trump administration nor China is giving any strong clues as to when the initial trade agreement will be signed. Protests in Hong Kong continue to escalate with the latest reports suggesting the use of fire by protesters fail to stop the police from entering the Polytechnic University campus. The tension has been a week old with no signs of a solution taking place. The United States (US) favors the protesters’ right to challenge the “one country, two systems” but China doesn’t like it and the same keeps market’s risk sentiment negatively affected due to the tension in Hong Kong. That said, S&P 500 Futures stays unchanged around 3,119 while portraying the market’s wait and watch mood in spite of broadly positive headlines from the US and China. Moving on, a lack of major data/event keeps pushing traders to US-China headlines, not to forget Hong Kong, for fresh direction. Though, Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the key to watch. Technical Analysis A daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line, around 0.6835, becomes necessary for the pair to recall buyers. Alternatively, multiple tops marked during late-September and early October keep the pair’s downside limited around 0.6800.  

Reuters reports Sunday’s comments delivered by the UK Foreign Minister Raab while speaking in a BBC TV interview. When asked by if the UK could leave

Reuters reports Sunday’s comments delivered by the UK Foreign Minister Raab while speaking in a BBC TV interview. When asked by if the UK could leave without a deal, Raab said: "No ... I don't think it's remotely likely." He explained that it's not "remotely likely" that the UK would leave the EU without agreeing on a free trade deal at the end of a post-Brexit transition period. UK election: Poll shows Conservatives hold the top spot – GBP/USD Positive Meanwhile, with the UK opinion polls showing the Conservatives in the lead and following the Brexit Party leader Farage’s stepping from the 43 additional constituencies, where the Labour won, the GBP/USD pair saw a minor 9-pips bullish gap at the weekly opening. The Cable then went on to hit fresh ten-day highs at 1.2928, currently trading near 1.2918 levels, still up +0.18%.

NZD/USD buyers seem to catch a breath as the pair shows a little positive response to the latest slew of US-China trade headlines.

NZD/USD fails to cheer the latest positive headlines from the US and China, BusinessNZ PMI data.The pair benefited from the RBNZ’s surprise no rate cut.An absence of major data keeps the market’s attention on trade news for fresh impulse.NZD/USD buyers seem to catch a breath as the pair shows a little positive response to the latest slew of US-China trade headlines. The quote seesaws around 0.6400 by the press time of early Monday morning in Asia. Trade talks between the United States (US) and China are in their final stages to mark the “phase one” completion. The latest media reports from the US and China are both supportive of the arguments as not only the Trump administration but officials from the dragon nation also are positive to the last round of phone calls held on Friday. Though, no clear deadline, as to when the initial deal will be signed, is yet available from any of the sides. On the data front, New Zealand’s Business NZ Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October rose to 55.4 from 54.4 prior. The kiwi pair turns out to become the best G10 currency pair by the end of last week. The same can be attributed to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) surprise no rate cut. It should, however, be noted that the central bank Governor Adrian Orr kept the door open for further easing if needed. In spite of the overall trade positive sentiment, the kiwi traders seem to await strong clues of trade progress, might the phase one deal announcement, to extend the latest run-up. Adding to this could be the lack of data on the economic calendar. Furthermore, the escalation of protests in Hong Kong could also be considered as a negative catalyst. Technical Analysis Prices stay below 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6427 while holding above the 21-day EMA, around 0.6370. As a result, traders will look for a clear break to register a major move.  
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