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सोमवार , दिसम्बर 9, 2019

The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0405 versus Friday's fix at 7.0383.

The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0405 versus Friday's fix at 7.0383.

A potential global growth rebound could bode well for the single currency, pushing EUR/USD higher to 1.15 in the next 12 months, according to analysts

A potential global growth rebound could bode well for the single currency, pushing EUR/USD higher to 1.15 in the next 12 months, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.  "If our forecast for better global growth proves correct, the most interesting G-10 exchange rate next year might be the beleaguered euro." EUR/USD, however, is likely to remain around 1.10 in the next three months, as the fundamental signals are not yet bullish – there are no signs of European or global growth rebound.  At press time. EUR/USD is trading largely unchanged on the day at 1.1056. 
 

The price of a barrel of oil shot higher on Friday with West Texas Intermediate spot reaching as high as $59.81 from a low of $57.68. The Organization

Oil prices were elevated on Friday following the confirmation of OPEC+ accord. NFP and trade deal headlines were positive for risk and supportive of oil prices.The price of a barrel of oil shot higher on Friday with West Texas Intermediate spot reaching as high as $59.81 from a low of $57.68.    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, (OPEC+) finally agreed to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day on top of its current reduction agreement which will start in in the beginning in January, bringing total cuts to 1.7billion barrels a day. "Ultimately, this is synonymous with an attempt to distribute Saudi's over-compliance, but does not materially change the group's total output. We suspect that hopes that the cartel would deepen their output curtailment will be pared back in the coming days. Hence, we continue to expect WTI and Brent prices to revert lower in the coming days," analysts at TD Securities explained.  US data surprise data supports risk appetite Meanwhile, the strong US Nonfarm Payrolls was positive for risk and a bullish addition for oil prices. The headline rose 266k in November, surging past expectations by a huge 86k margin with October revised by +28k. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, underemployment fell from 7.0% to 6.9%, although the participation fell from 63.3% to 63.2%, albeit within the upward trend. Hourly earnings rose 0.2%mth, 3.1% YoY. subsequently, US stocks lifted the benchmarks into a positive close, correlating with oil prices, with S&P index +0.91, NASDAQ index +1.0% and the Dow industrial average +1.22%. Sino/US trade deal on track On Friday, there was news that the state-run Xinhua News Agency said that China’s State Council began the process of exempting some soybeans and pork imported from the US from punitive tariffs, also helping to boost sentiment on Friday and underpinning the recent confirmation from Beijing that indeed a 'phase-one' deal is "on track". WTI levels  

NZD/USD has formed a double top bullish reversal pattern on the hourly chart with neckline support at 0.6546. Acceptance below the neckline would conf

NZD/USD has created a double top pattern on the hourly chart. The daily chart indicator is reporting overbought conditions. NZD/USD has formed a double top bullish reversal pattern on the hourly chart with neckline support at 0.6546. Acceptance below the neckline would confirm a double top breakdown and open the doors for 0.6517 (target as per the measured move method). The hourly chart MACD histogram is already reporting bearish conditions with a below-zero print. Further, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is hovering above 70, signaling overbought conditions. So, a double top breakdown cannot be ruled out - more so, as traders now see the Federal Reserve keeping rates on hold until after November 2020 Presidential Elections. Prior to Friday's blowout Nonfarm Payrolls data, traders were expecting the Fed to deliver one rate cut in 2020. Daily chartTrend: Pullback likely Technical levels  

EUR/USD rises to 1.1060 amid the initial trading session on Monday. In doing so, the pair recovers from 50-DMA but stays below 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci.

EUR/USD bounces off 50-DMA.100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement limit immediate upside.Multiple supports around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will question sellers during fresh declines.EUR/USD rises to 1.1060 amid the initial trading session on Monday. In doing so, the pair recovers from 50-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) but stays below a confluence of 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October month upside. Bullish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) favors the pair’s upside past-1.1065/70 immediate resistance confluence. However, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1110 could question Bulls afterward. In a case where buyers dominate after -1.1110, October month high surrounding 1.1180 will be their favorite. On the contrary, pair’s declines below the 50-DMA level of 1.1055 can fetch prices to 50% Fibonacci retracement, around 1.1030. Though, multiple rest-points near 61.8% Fibonacci retracement figure of 1.1000 can challenge bears during additional south-run. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Sideways  

In light of the latest third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers from Australia, Bill Evans from Westpac anticipate a lower growth forecast.

In light of the latest third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers from Australia, Bill Evans from Westpac anticipate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Australian government will lower their future growth forecasts. However, the analyst still supports the Westpac estimation of 2.4% GDP figure for the year 2020 following a 2.3% increase in 2019. Key quotes The Australian economy grew by a disappointing 0.4% in the September quarter for an annual growth of 1.7%. Of most concern is that this represents the fifth consecutive quarter where private final demand, which declined by 0.3% in September, either contracted or was flat. The contraction in the dwelling construction cycle continued into the September quarter. The Federal Government and the Reserve Bank will be disappointed with this result. A lift in annual output growth from 1.6% to 1.7% is hardly a “gentle turning point” when private final demand contracted by 0.3% following a 0.1% contraction in the June quarter. Despite a solid boost to incomes, the cautious consumer has chosen to lift its savings rate and hold spending effectively flat. The lift in savings is over and above the policy stimulus - suggesting heightened risk aversion. It seems likely that the Reserve Bank will need to lower its optimistic growth forecast for 2020 of 2.8% given it is underpinned by a lift in consumer spending growth to 2.4% (compared to the current 1.2%) and a 6.2% lift in business investment. As discussed, that compares with the Reserve Bank’s forecast in November of 2.8%. Accordingly, we expect that the RBA, while unlikely to follow Westpac’s forecast exactly, will revise down its 2020 growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.5%. A revision in growth from trend to below trend would represent an appropriate opportunity to deliver on the next rate cut from 0.75% to 0.5%. We expect that cut will be eventually followed by a further cut in June to 0.25%, a little after the Commonwealth Budget which will be released on May 12. Westpac has argued strongly that the Commonwealth government should bring forward the personal income tax cuts which have been legislated to begin from July 2022. Such a policy initiative would boost the consumer spending profile through the second half of 2020 and in 2021.

The bid tone around the Japanese Yen strengthened following the upbeat Japanese gross domestic product (GDP), but so far, the EUR/JPY cross has been a

EUR/JPY dropped 13 pips after the upbeat Japanese GDP data. The pair is still holding above the psychological support of 130.00. A break lower looks likely with the US index futures flashing losses. The bid tone around the Japanese Yen strengthened following the upbeat Japanese gross domestic product (GDP), but so far, the EUR/JPY cross has been able to avoid a drop below the psychological level of 120.00. Japan’s economy grew an annualized 1.8% in July-September, much more than the initial estimate of a 0.2% expansion, the Cabinet Office reported a few minutes before press time. The upward revision bettered the estimate for a 0.7% by a big margin. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP expanded 0.4%, compared with a 0.1% growth in the initial reading and beating the median forecast of 0.2% growth. Further, Japan's current account surplus JPY 1,816.8 billion in October compared to the median estimate of JPY 1,797.8 billion and up from the preceding month's JPY 1,612.9 billion. EUR/JPY dropped 13 pips to hit a session low of 120.00 immediately following the release of the better-than-expected data at 23:50 GMT. Currently, the pair is trading at 120.04, representing marginal losses on the day. The psychological support of 120.00 could be breached, as the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.15% decline. The technical outlook is also bearish with the daily chart showing a downside break of the trendline connecting Nov. 14 and Nov. 25 lows. Technical levels  

AUD/JPY trades around 74.20, after flashing a low of 74.17, on early Monday. The quote reacted to Japan’s upbeat data to extend the bearish chart formation.

AUD/JPY declines after Japan’s upbeat GDP/trade data.An upward sloping support line since mid-November gains sellers’ attention.200-bar SMA, one-week-old falling trend line restrict immediate upside.AUD/JPY trades around 74.20, after flashing a low of 74.17, on early Monday. The quote reacted to Japan’s upbeat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Trade Balance data. Japan’s third-quarter (Q3) GDP (QoQ) rose beyond 0.2% expectations and 0.1% preliminary forecast to +0.4% while the yearly figure stood unchanged at 0.6%. Further, Japan’s October month Trade Balance on the Balance of Payments (BOP) basis crossed ¥1.1 B prior with a whooping ¥254 B. Read: Japanese GDP Q3 beats expectations by 0.2% The pair now seems to decline towards near-term rising support line, at 74.00. However, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of November month fall, near 73.90, can stop the further downpour. Should there be additional weakness past-73.90, the previous month’s low near 73.35 will be on the Bears’ radar. Meanwhile, 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an immediate falling trend line limit the pair’s near-term upside around 74.35/40. In a case prices rally beyond 74.40, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement close to 74.80 and November 10 high around 75.00 could return to the charts. AUD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

USD/JPY seesaws around 108.60 during the Asian session on Monday. The quote shows a less reaction to upbeat growth figures from Japan.

USD/JPY stays modestly changed to Friday’s levels.Japan's final reading of Q3 GDP crosses preliminary readings and forecasts.Risk sentiment remains under pressure at the start of the key week including ECB, FOMC, US tariffs, and UK election. USD/JPY seesaws around 108.60 during the Asian session on Monday. The quote shows a less reaction to upbeat growth figures from Japan. Even so, pair’s sellers keep dominating the moves ahead of the key week. The final reading of Japan’s third-quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew past-0.2% forecast and 0.1% preliminary expectations to +0.4% on QoQ basis. Though, the yearly figures matched no change expectations of 0.6%. Further, Japan’s Trade Balance on Balance of Payment (BOP) Basis for October crossed ¥1.1 B prior with a whooping ¥254 B. Market’s risk tone seems to fail to extend the previous gains as traders turn cautious ahead of the key week that comprises key central bank meetings and the general election in the United Kingdom (UK). Though, recent polls concerning the British election seem to keep the ruling Conservatives Party at the top and recede fears of the UK’s political trauma. Also exerting the downside pressure on risk sentiment is the trade tussle between the United States (US) and China. The US tariffs of China are up for taking place on December 15 and the Trump administration wants a phase-one to turn the tariff’s switch off. However, Beijing seems not in a mood to respect the US, despite supporting agricultural demand, as recent headlines from the Financial Times (FT) and Global Times have been quite downbeat. As a result, the S&P 500 Futures fails to extend the Friday’s recovery while taking rounds to 3,145 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also seesaw near 1.84% and stop the latest run-up. Given the lack of major data/events up for publishing, traders may look for trade/political headlines for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 108.55 offers the immediate support ahead of November month low near 108.20. On the upside, 109.00 acts as nearby resistance whereas 109.70 and 110.00 will be on the Bull’s radar then after.  

Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis: ¥254B (October) vs ¥1.1B

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 1.8%, above forecasts (0.7%) in 3Q

Japan's third-quarter Gross Domestic Product final was expected to be revised up to +0.2% from +0.1%. The data has arrived as follows: GDP sa QoQ 0.4%

Japan's third-quarter Gross Domestic Product final was expected to be revised up to +0.2% from +0.1%. The data has arrived as follows: GDP sa QoQ  0.4%, ahead of the preliminary result.  GDP annualised sa 1.8%. FX implications USD/JPY was steady around 108.62 on the release. The data beat expectations, the market's focus is elsewhere considering the count down to the 15th December deadline which will determine whether there is a trade deal or new tariffs on Chinese goods. On Friday, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said that China’s State Council began the process of exempting some soybeans and pork imported from the US from punitive tariffs. Also, US Nonfarm Payrolls was a huge beat and the combination of poitive trade news and solid US data would be expected to continue to support an upside bias for USD/JPY.  

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) in line with expectations (0.6%) in 3Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.4%, above forecasts (0.2%) in 3Q

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) came in at 2.1%, above forecasts (1.9%) in November

Japan Current Account n.s.a. above forecasts (¥1797.8B) in October: Actual (¥1816.8B)

Gold prices on Friday suffered a steep drop with the price falling from a high of $1,480.20 to a low of $1,458.77 following a better-than-expected Non

Gold prices are in focus following sharp NFP drop and positive trade-deal sentiment. US dollar bounced in line with yields following the strong employment report.Gold prices on Friday suffered a steep drop with the price falling from a high of $1,480.20 to a low of $1,458.77 following a better-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report which sent the US dollar and stocks higher.  In Asia, gold remains in the vicinity of Friday's closing prices on what is set to be a busy event schedule saturated in trade deal sentiment as the 15th December approaches fast, a date for which has been set as deadline that will determine whether there is a trade deal or new tariffs on Chinese goods. US NFP knocked gold’s recent rally back down to size Meanwhile, the strong US Nonfarm Payrolls data knocked gold’s recent rally back down to size. The headline rose 266k in November, surging past expectations by a huge 86k margin with October revised by +28k. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, underemployment fell from 7.0% to 6.9%, although the participation fell from 63.3% to 63.2%, albeit within the upward trend.  Hourly earnings rose 0.2%mth, 3.1% YoY. The US dollar bounced in line with yields on the strong employment report and US stocks lifted the benchmarks into a positive close, with S&P index +0.91, NASDAQ index +1.0% and the Dow industrial average +1.22%. Indeed, the data has gone to reduce bets of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve so soon, certainly not on December 11th, although due to a mixed outlook and a data-dependent Fed, markets are still pricing a terminal rate of 1.28% vs the Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently. As for US two-year treasury yields, these had risen from 1.58% to 1.64% following the data, settling at 1.61%. The ten-year yields rose from 1.79% to 1.86%, settling at 1.84%.  "The Fed's asymmetric reaction function suggests they will either cut rates further if growth disappoints or stay the course if growth recovers, ultimately pressuring real rates further. This lends strength to the view that gold will continue to bounce higher into 2020 as momentum strategies make a comeback — CTAs are eyeing a break north of $1500/oz to add to their length," analysts at TD Securities argued, adding, "We suspect that a break north of this range would kickstart the next leg of the yellow metal's rally."  Sino/US trade deal on track On the trade front, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said that China’s State Council began the process of exempting some soybeans and pork imported from the US from punitive tariffs, also helping to boost sentiment on Friday and underpinning the recent confirmation from Beijing that indeed a 'phase-one' deal is "on track". Gold levels  

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) recently came out with their analysis of major market performance based on the positioning data.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) recently came out with their analysis of major market performance based on the positioning data is for the week ending on December 03. The key findings suggest that the US dollar (USD) keeps the top long position for asset managers while funds keep selling the New Zealand dollar (NZD) despite recent positive catalysts. Key quotes "Leveraged funds reverted to selling USD, while asset managers remained net buyers for the fourth straight week. The stronger than expected US nonfarm payrolls report and a Fed on hold this week could see funds turn net buyers again." "Fund and asset managers took opposite positions on EUR, GBP, JPY and CHF. While the former bought all four, the latter were net sellers across the board. The upcoming UK elections are a key event to watch out for GBP positioning." "Funds sold NZD for the third straight week despite the rebound in NZ consumer confidence. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) bank capital decision, which was softer in some aspects, should see some unwinding of NZD short positions. The relative positioning in the Australian dollar (AUD) v/s NZD is at odds with the AUD/NZD cross."

GBP/JPY takes the bids to 142.70 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair extends the late Friday's recovery while running towards the recent highs.

GBP/JPY stays positive around seven months’ high.200-week SMA, multi-month-old resistance line limit the pair’s upside.50% of Fibonacci retracement acts as immediate key support.GBP/JPY takes the bids to 142.70 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair extends the late Friday's recovery while running towards the recent highs surrounding 143.30. Even so, 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a downward sloping trend line since February 2018 could keep buyers in check near 143.65/80. Should bulls clear 143.80, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 2018 peak to June 2019 trough, around 145.15/20, will be their next target. It’s worth mentioning that pair’s run-up beyond 145.20 enables it to take aim at the year 2019 top near 148.90. Alternatively, a weekly closing below 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 141.58 can trigger fresh pullback towards 1400.00 and then the late-October bottom close to 138.50. GBP/JPY weekly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

GBP/USD pays a little heed to the weekend polls while trading around 1.3135 amid the initial Asian session on Monday.

GBP/USD stays modestly changed from Friday’s low.Weekend polls keep Tories on the top despite recent challenges to the UK PM.All eyes on December 12 UK elections, monthly activity/growth numbers can offer intermediate direction.GBP/USD pays a little heed to the weekend polls while trading around 1.3135 amid the initial Asian session on Monday. Traders seem too cautious to extend the recent run-up beyond the seven-month top ahead of the key election in the United Kingdom (UK). Weekend polls suggest that the ruling Conservatives Party continues to hold top positions across all major surveys. However, the opposition Labour Party seems to cut the lead as far as data from ComRes and Deltapoll are concerned. Details from ComRes indicate a hung parliament with the Tory lead cutting down to six points. The latest from the UK politics indicate that the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson admits that there will be minor checks between the UK and Northern Ireland while also clarifying the promise of 50,000 nurses as it will include the retention of 19,000. Further, the UK PM has mostly been criticized for not participating in the general debates but the recent one on Channel 4 seems to be good for the Tories. The reason to be was Cathy Newman’s performance. On the other hand, the United States (US) hasn’t yet turned down the scope of fresh tariffs on Chinese goods that are up for December 15. The same keeps market players worried as phase-one talks are yet to provide any strong development. With this, the market’s risk sentiment seems to be a little compressed with USD/JPY and S&P 500 Futures staying mostly close to Friday’s levels of 108.60 and 3,145 respectively. Although Thursday’s election will be the key for GBP/USD traders, monthly readings of Manufacturing Production, Industrial Production and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could offer intermediate moves to the pair. Technical Analysis Highs marked in May and April, close to 1.3180 and 1.3200, can keep prices under check while sellers can enter below 1.3100 with October highs near 1.3013 being the target.  

The Mexican Foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said today that Mexico would accept a US proposal regulating steel in the United States-Mexico-Canada Ag

The Mexican Foreign Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said today that Mexico would accept a US proposal regulating steel in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but only if the rule took effect at least five years after the pact's ratification, according to a Reuters news.  Ebrard also said the Mexican government would not accept the U.S. proposal to conduct labor inspections in Mexico, or U.S. demands over rules for aluminum, in revisions to the trade deal known as USMCA. Key notes Ebrard says more than 90% of USMCA is not open to revision, but there will be an addendum to the deal. Ebrard says Mexico will not accept US labour inspections in USMCA trade pact. FX implications The US and Mexico are working out the final details in changes to the new North American trade pact. However, as close as they might be to finalising negotiations, a positive for MXN, the news comes as a setback. Additionally, speaker Nancy Pelosi could still ask for more tweaks to what US Robert Lighthizer and Mexican Undersecretary for North America, Jesús Seade, are negotiating.   

Japan’s Finance Ministry is up for releasing the final reading of the third quarter (Q3) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures at 23:50 GMT on Monday.

Overview Japan’s Finance Ministry is up for releasing the final reading of the third quarter (Q3) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures at 23:50 GMT on Monday. Market consensus suggests a 0.2% figure of the growth signal versus a +0.1% preliminary forecast on a quarterly basis. Further, the yearly format indicates no change in 0.6% figure while GDP annualized may rise to 0.7% from 0.2% earlier. How could Japan’s preliminary GDP affect USD/JPY? While recently downbeat prints of Leading Index, Coincident Index and Overall Household Spending signal a soft reading of the growth figure, a strong number could challenge further stimulus from the Japanese Government. It should also be noted that the Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe has already signaled a multi-trillion package to revive the economic growth. Hence, any disappointment from the data could be short-lived as the policymakers are already on the stimulus page. Also supporting the Japanese Yen’s run-up will be the market’s safe-haven demand amid the key week including monetary policy meetings from the central banks of the United States (US) and Europe. Furthermore, the US tariffs on China are scheduled to be active on December 15 and could trigger a broad risk-off, which in turn will be supportive to the Japanese yen (JPY). Technically, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 108.55 holds the key to the pair’s drop to November month low near 108.20. On the upside, 109.00 acts as immediate resistance whereas 109.70 and 110.00 will be on the Bull’s radar then after. Key Notes USD/JPY set to open in a risk-positive environment, bulls looking for upside correction USD/JPY Forecast: Sellers around 109.00 continue to cap advances About the Japanese Q3 final GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan within a given period of time. GDP is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which the Japanese economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is negative.

China’s November month trade numbers seem to provide a less worrisome signal to Beijing, despite a surprise slump in exports, as Global Times said.

China’s November month trade numbers seem to provide a less worrisome signal to Beijing, despite a surprise slump in exports, as Global Times recently released a story highlighting the fact that the trade war with the United States (US) is less harmful. Key quotes China's trade with the US plunged 11.1 percent to 3.4 trillion yuan ($483 billion) in the first 11 months of the year as the long-running bilateral trade war continued to batter both sides, according to customs data released on Sunday. The 11-month decline widened from a 10.6 percent contraction in the first 10 months.  However, China managed to make up for its worsening trade with the US by beefing up trade with other markets, and it achieved what experts described as generally positive trade volume this year.  From January to November, China's exports to the US slid 8.4 percent to 2.64 trillion yuan, while imports from the US fell 19.5 percent to 763 billion yuan. China's trade surplus with the US narrowed 3 percent on a yearly basis to 1.88 trillion yuan. In general, China's trade successfully withstood the negative pressure from the trade war in 2019. It's not easy for China to achieve 2.4 percent trade growth at a time when international trade is slowing significantly. According to the customs data, China's trade with economies along the routes of the Belt and Road Initiative increased 9.9 percent to 8.35 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of this year. Trade with the EU increased by 9.5 percent during the period.  FX implications Although initial trading hours in Asia have tamed the market’s response to the news, the headlines will have a negative impact on the trade discussions between the United States (US) and China. This has a higher negative market impact mainly due to the upcoming US tariffs on December 15.
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