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EUR/JPY came within 1 pip of matching monthly highs set on 9 November in the immediate aftermath of the Pfizer/BioNtech announcement at 125.14. Howeve

EUR/JPY came within a whisker of November highs at 125.14 and has since reversed sharply back below the 125.00 level.The pair still trades with reasonable gains on the day, however, as JPY broadly ends a bad month with a whimper.EUR/JPY came within 1 pip of matching monthly highs set on 9 November in the immediate aftermath of the Pfizer/BioNtech announcement at 125.14. However, in the build-up to a choppy final 16:00GMT London fixing of the month, the pair sharply reversed and has now dropped back below 125.00 to trade in the 124.60s. Month-end flows dominate, but economic fundamentals to take over as the week progresses Difficult to predict month-end flows have been dominant in financial markets today; many banks were suggesting USD selling, which was initially seen before being unwound prior to the 16:00GMT London Fix. Meanwhile, US equities dumped shortly after the open, amid a number of high-profile institutions touting sell signals. The S&P 500 currently trades 0.8% lower on the day, but still holds onto gains of more than 10% on the month. The euro and yen have also been buffeted by month-end flows. But with this short-lived phenomenon now largely over, focus ought to return to the usual themes driving the two currencies; risk appetite, central banks and economic fundamentals. In particular, JPY traders will be watching for any hints that US states are moving further into lockdown, something which could support JPY vs its G10 peers including EUR. Moreover, Japanese November manufacturing and services PMIs are released on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, which ought to garner some attention, as should speeches from BoJ’s Amamiya and Suzuki. Meanwhile, EUR traders very much expect a hefty dose of easing from the ECB on 16 December and will be looking for further confirmation of as much from ECB President Christine Lagarde (speaking on Tuesday) and ECB Chief Economist Lane (speaking on Wednesday). Meanwhile, November Consumer Price Inflation is likely to be very soft and is released on Wednesday, while traders will also be watching Eurozone retail sales on Thursday. EUR/JPY double top? With EUR/JPY strongly rejecting resistance at the previous monthly high at 125.14, a double top has been put in. If this does turn out to be a meaningful double top, eyes will be on support just below the 124.00 level (26 November lows) and then the pair’s 21 and 50-day moving averages just above 123.50. Below that at the 123.00 level, there is also strong support (2 and 15 October lows and 18, 19 and 20 November lows). However, it might not be current to argue that EUR/JPY is a double top given that is has actually tested this region four times over the past two months; in mid-October, the pair rejected the 125.00 level twice. Thus, this might signal that a convincing upside break of the 125.00 level is coming imminently, which would open the door for a move to the upside and towards Summer highs between 126.50-127.00.EUR/JPY four hour chart

Analysts at Citibank see the USD/CAD pair moving to the downside over the next months. The see the pair around 1.29 in a three-month perspective and a

Analysts at Citibank see the USD/CAD pair moving to the downside over the next months. The see the pair around 1.29 in a three-month perspective and at 1.25 in a six to twelve-month horizon.  Key Quotes: “The Loonie has benefitted greatly from decreasing global uncertainty, as it trades high beta to risk-on; we expect this momentum to continue through 2021 and correspondingly a lower USD to be an important positive CAD driver. Besides, The Canadian government continues to support the economy. On the central bank front, the BoC has already paused some of their easing measures, which may also support CAD.” “USDCAD hovers around 1.3000 with major support seen between 1.2952/1.3000. Should the unit break through this support area, momentum is likely to rapidly build towards sharper declines targeting 1.2700 – 1.2800.”
 

The EUR/USD turned to the downside during the American session amid a recovery of the US dollar across the board and as equity prices in Wall Street p

Euro reverses versus the US dollar and turns negative from three-month highs.EUR/USD still heads for the best month since July.The EUR/USD turned to the downside during the American session amid a recovery of the US dollar across the board and as equity prices in Wall Street printed fresh lows. The pair bottomed at 1.1942. As of writing it is hovering around 1.1945, having the worst loss in a week. The DXY erased losses and rebounded from multi-year lows above 91.80, now positive for the day. In Wall Street, the Dow Jones is falling by more than 1% while the Nasdaq drops by 0.55% after spending most of the time in positive territory. Still EUR/USD and equity prices are about to end November with considerable gains, supported by the improvement in risk sentiment on COIVD-19 vaccine developments, the outcome of the US elections and the latest round of economic data. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD still holds bullish tone but in the very short-term it lost momentum. After approaching 1.2000, the euro turned to the downside, suggesting some potential exhaustion on the upside. If it holds above 1.1900, the bullish bias will remain intact while a decline under 1.1900 would increase the odds of a short-term peak. Technical levels  

The USD/JPY pair dropped to a fresh weekly low of 103.83 on Monday but reversed its direction during the American trading hours. As of writing, the pa

USD/JPY gained traction after dropping below 104.00 on Monday.US Dollar Index rises toward 92.00 in American session.Wall Street's main indexes trade deep in the negative territory.The USD/JPY pair dropped to a fresh weekly low of 103.83 on Monday but reversed its direction during the American trading hours. As of writing, the pair was trading at 104.35, gaining 0.27% on a daily basis. DXY recovers toward 92.00 The broad-based USD weakness caused USD/JPY to push lower during the first half of the day. However, after major equity indexes in the US started the day in the negative territory, the US Dollar Index (DXY) turned north and staged a decisive rebound.  Additionally, month-end flows and profit-taking seem to be providing an additional boost to the greenback. As of writing, the DXY, which is down more than 2% in November, was posting small daily gains at 91.89.  Earlier in the day, the data from the US showed that the ISM Chicago's PMI fell to 58.2 in November from 61.1 in October and Pending Home Sales declined by 1.1% in October. Nevertheless, market participants largely ignored these readings. Meanwhile, the poor performance of Wall Street's main indexes seems to be allowing the USD to remain strong against its peers. At the moment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes are losing 1.2% and 0.78%, respectively. On Tuesday, Unemployment Rate and Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI data will be featured in the Japanese economic docket. Technical levels to watch for  

Colombia National Jobless Rate fell from previous 15.8% to 14.7% in October

Another day of downside for spot silver (XAG/USD). The precious metal is looking likely to close in the red for the eighth time in the last ten tradin

Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices have seen further downside on Monday, but are holding above the psychological $22.00 level for now.From a technical perspective, XAG/USD maintains its downside bias and is currently trading within a bearish trend channel.Another day of downside for spot silver (XAG/USD). The precious metal is looking likely to close in the red for the eighth time in the last ten trading days on Monday, with spot prices currently nearly 2% lower on the day, or trading with losses of over 40 cents. Still, silver has managed to keep its head above $22.00, with prices having very briefly dipped under this level earlier on in the session only to recover back above it strongly. USD weakness providing little favour to precious metals USD has been choppy on Monday, trading weaker for most of the session, only to significantly strengthen into the 16:00GMT London Fix and recoup all of the days losses and some. USD’s negative bias in the early part of Monday's session did not come to the aid of precious metal markets at all and although off lows, spot gold still trades lower by around 0.4%, as well as losses of nearly 1% in spot silver. Month-end flows could be one factor exacerbating Monday’s losses; a number of analysts point out that asset managers and big players have been gradually adjusting their portfolios throughout the month to better reflect the global growth rebound story in 2021. Naturally, such adjustments have not favoured precious metals particularly well. Silver’s downside bias intact, bears target September lows Having broken to the downside of a long-term pennant formed since August at the end of last week, Silver’s immediate technical bias remains to the downside. XAG/USD has already broken to the downside of the October low around $22.50 and has already tested the psychological $22.00 level. Should this level be next to go, September’s $21.68 low would be the next target. Despite silver’s recent minor rebound from lows, its bias remains titled towards the downside from a technical perspective. Since roughly 16 November, the asset has moved to the south within a downwards trend channel linking 20, 23 and 27 November highs to the upside and the 16, 24 and 27 November lows to the downside. XAG/USD briefly broke below this trend channel on Monday but has recovered back inside it in recent trade. As long as the precious metal continues to respect this, a continued gradual move lower towards fresh multi-month lows is likely.XAG/USD daily chartXAG/USD one hour chart

Analysts at Citibank point out that widespread distribution of a vaccine, and an agreement on a Brexit deal can support the pound. They forecast GBP/U

Analysts at Citibank point out that widespread distribution of a vaccine, and an agreement on a Brexit deal can support the pound. They forecast GBP/USD at 1.32 in a three-month horizon and at 1.37 in six to twelve months.  Key Quotes: “There’s no doubt that GBP is cheap based on traditional PPP, which sits around 15% below its long term average. So arguably, despite the fact that the UK has lagged the G10 complex in terms of economic momentum throughout most of the year, the currency has been reasonably supported by its cheap valuation. Going forward, widespread distribution of a vaccine, and an agreement on a Brexit deal can support GBP. A Global economic recovery in 2021 as a result of a vaccine could see the UK begin to catchup. This also reduces the probability of the MPC moving policy rates into negative Territory.” “GBPUSD have closed above a good horizontal resistance range at 1.3292-1.331 which comes from a 76.4% retracement level and a November high. This opens up room for an up move to 1.3482-1.3514 (September 2020 and December 2019 high).” “1.3400 remains near term resistance and a deal announcement could see 1.3500 tested with a further break opening up to 1.3760 and 1.4000 as there remains strong underlying demand for the currency once real money and sovereign type names get the greenlight to allocate capital towards the UK.”

Gold is falling for the second day in a row on Monday. It bottomed at $1764/oz, the lowest level in five months and then rebounded but it was unable t

Gold in ranges between $1780 and $1765.Yellow metal about to post lowest daily close in five months.Gold is falling for the second day in a row on Monday. It bottomed at $1764/oz, the lowest level in five months and then rebounded but it was unable to remain above $1780. As of writing, the metal trades at $1778, about to post the lowest close in five months. During November, XAU/USD lost almost 6% having the worst month since 2016. It extended the bearish correction from record highs levels for the fourth consecutive month. The slide took impulse after breaking under $1850 and it still has not found a strong support. A recovery above $1800 could point toward an interim bottom. From a technical perspective, the short-term trend still points to the downside. Many indicators show oversold readings but no signs of a correction are seen at the moment. Under $1765, the next target stands at $1750. On the upside, the $1795/1800 is the key barrier, followed by $1818 and $1845. Technical levels    

The existing level of bond purchases is providing a pretty strong stimulus and an extension of duration could be an option if the Fed decides more sti

The existing level of bond purchases is providing a pretty strong stimulus and an extension of duration could be an option if the Fed decides more stimulus is needed, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Monday, per Reuters. Technical levels to watch for "We are concerned workers are frozen in place by nature of pandemic, hope that former jobs will still return." "Still hard to see a huge drop in spending, other activity as virus surges." "Seeing constraints to recovery in the near term but better prospects over the medium term given the vaccine." "The end of Main Street and other programs on December 31 represents a risk but also there is no certainty any particular backstop will be needed." Market reaction The US Dollar Index extends its rebound during the American trading hours and was last seen posting small daily gains at 91.85.

Gold has been attempting recovery after tumbling below the round $1,800 level on Friday. So far, the precious metal seems to have failed and is fallin

Gold has been attempting recovery after tumbling below the round $1,800 level on Friday. So far, the precious metal seems to have failed and is falling alongside the dollar and stocks as November is ending. Some of the moves may be attributed to end-of-month flows. How is XAU/USD positioned once the dust settles?  The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that critical resistance awaits at around $1,775, which is the convergence of the previous daily low, the Pivot Point one-day Support 3 and the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle.  Further above, the next hurdle is $1,784, which is a juncture including the BB one-day Lower and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day.  The upside target is $1,792, which is the meeting point of the Simple Moving Average 10-4h and the BB 1h-Upper. Some support is at $1,770, where the Pivot Point one-day Support 3 and the previous 1h-low converge. Bears eye $1,753, which is where the Pivot Point one-day Support 2 hits the price.  Key XAU/USD resistances and supports Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Amid broad USD downside, USD/CAD recently printed fresh lows since March 2018 of 1.2926. The pair has since rebounded very slightly back into the 1.29

USD/CAD hit its lowest level since October 2018 below 1.2930 in recent trade, although has since recovered back around 1.2960 since.Broad USD weakness has buoyed CAD, with the loonie the best performer in the G10.Amid broad USD downside, USD/CAD recently printed fresh lows since March 2018 of 1.2926. The pair has since rebounded very slightly back into the 1.2930s, but still trades with losses on the day of over 50 pips or just under 0.5%. CAD surges to the top spot in G10 performance table USD/CAD recent advance to the downside has seen the loonie climb to pole position in terms of its performance on the day vs USD compared to other G10 currencies. However, Credit Agricole posit a few reasons to be cautious on CAD going forward, or at least, reasons why the loonie might underperform the likes of AUD, NZD and NOK even in USD weakness continues. Firstly, the US economy is struggling right now as it copes with a persistently high prevalence of Covid-19, the associated lockdowns and a lack of fiscal aid from Congress. Given the fact that US is by far their most important trade partner, is also likely to impact the Canadian economy negatively, meaning as the US economic outlook weighs on USD, it might also weigh on CAD. Meanwhile, though oil prices have put in a stunning performance on the month so far this November, Credit Agricole think that the outlook for crude (with which CAD has a higher correlation) is less favourable than for other commodities (on which AUD and NZD have a higher correlation to). This is because 1) the bank thinks global travel is likely to remain subdued for a long-time even after the pandemic and 2) the incoming Biden administration presents a number of bearish factors for oil markets, such as bettering relations with Iran and clamping down on Canadian oil imports. Crude underperformance vs other commodities could directly feed into CAD underperformance vs the likes of AUD and NZD. Looking ahead for the loonie, GDP data on Tuesday will be closely watched, as will the November jobs report on Friday, though USD/CAD is, as ever, more likely to conform to global risk and USD dynamics and movement in crude oil prices on the whole. USD/CAD breaks below bearish trend channel Since about 12 November, USD/CAD had been moving to the south within the confines of a bearish trend channel; to the downside, this trendline linked 16, 18 and 24 November lows and to the upside, it linked the 13, 19, 23 and 24 November highs. However, USD/CAD broke to the south of this trend channel on Monday to set fresh yearly lows of under 1.2930. The pair has since retraced some of these losses and is now flirting with the lower bounds of this trend channel again in the 1.2950s. If the bears can hold out, a gradual move back lower towards year-to-date lows under 1.2930 is likely. If not, the pair might return back to within the confines of its recent downwards trend channel, in which case the bias would still be towards further likely losses, albeit somewhat more gradually over the coming sessions.USD/CAD four hour chart

United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index above forecasts (7.4) in November: Actual (12)

GBP/USD has moved back towards the top of its recent 1.3300-1.3400 range, buoyed by broad USD weakness that has seen the Dollar Index (DXY) slump to f

GBP/USD trades just below highs of the day in the 1.3380s, as month-end flows hurt USD.Sterling’s rally comes despite continued deadlock in Brexit negotiations.GBP/USD has moved back towards the top of its recent 1.3300-1.3400 range, buoyed by broad USD weakness that has seen the Dollar Index (DXY) slump to fresh lows of the year in the 91.50s. GBP/USD currently trades in the 1.3370s, up around 70 pips higher or with gains of over 0.5%. GBP immune to continued Brexit deadlock Pound sterling remains largely immune to negative Brexit headlines. GBP is one of the best performing G10 currencies on Monday, despite mixed/negative news flow on the state of talks over the weekend. An EU source reportedly said that EU/UK talks over the weekend in London were difficult and "massive divergences" remain on the three main areas. UK and EU officials have confirmed that differences between the two sides persist. With GBP/USD close to multi-month highs, markets appear to place a high probability that a deal will be reached in the coming days, thus leaving the currency highly vulnerable to disappointment (i.e. if talks were collapse). However, despite continued gridlock in negotiations and no end to the impasse in sight just yet, most analysts do still a deal to be reached at some point prior to the end of the year, given just how strongly it is in the interest of both the UK and EU to get a deal done as both regions struggle to prop up their economies amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Elsewhere, comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Tenreyro largely went under the radar, as did UK lending data (Mortgage approvals beat expectations but Net Lending to Individuals and M4 Money Supply were soft). Looking ahead for GBP, aside from the key theme of Brexit this week’s calendar is looking quite sparse. USD slumps amid month-end flows Negative US dollar month-end flows appear to be one factor driving the buck lower on Monday; a number of bank models flagged a relatively strong sell signal for USD vs the rest of the G10 currencies aside from JPY. More broadly, various other market narratives continue to keep USD suppressed; the path of the Covid-19 pandemic in the US is looking increasingly unfavourable vs the Eurozone and other parts of the world. Combine that with the fact that the current lame-duck Congress is unlikely to be able to deliver another much-needed stimulus package and Fed action in December is looking increasingly likely. Officials and the recently released minutes of the November meeting already hinted at tweaks to the bank’s QE programme if economic conditions continue to worsen. Analysts note that the threat of Fed action undermines the safe-haven appeal of USD compared to JPY and CHF, whose respective central banks are maxed out, policy-wise. Meanwhile, vaccine optimism and growing hope for the post-pandemic global economic recovery, that ought to be hastened by the better global trade environment fostered by a Biden presidency, has been weighing on havens such as USD more broadly. GBP/USD moves back into the top half of recent range GBP/USD has made decent strides to the upside on Monday, the pair thus recovering back into the upper half of its recent approximate 1.3300-1.3400 range. If recent USD weakness continues, it seems plausible that the pair would be able to break the top of this range, even in absence of a Brexit deal (for trading the theme of Brexit, EUR/GBP is arguably the more appropriate instrument to look at). Such a break would open up the door for a run at 1.3450 and then onto 1.3500 and the year-to-date high at 1.3516 just above it. If the recent USD downside proves more short-term, with the bulls perhaps picking up again after a day of dollar negative month-end flows, GBP/USD might well turn lower again, but faces stiff support between 1.3290-1.3310. Below that, last Monday’s low sits in the 1.3260s ahead of the 21-day moving average just above the psychological 1.3200 level.GBP/USD one hour chart

Pending Home Sales in the US fell by 1.1% on a monthly basis in October following September's decline of 2%, the data published by the US National Ass

Pending Home Sales in the US continued to fall in October.US Dollar Index remains deep in the negative territory near 91.50.  Pending Home Sales in the US fell by 1.1% on a monthly basis in October following September's decline of 2%, the data published by the US National Association of Realtors showed on Monday. This reading came in worse than the market expectation for an increase of 1%. On a yearly basis, Pending Home Sales rose by 20.2%. Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen losing 0.27% on the day at 91.55.

United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) declined to 20.2% in October from previous 20.5%

United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) below expectations (1%) in October: Actual (-1.1%)

Wall Street's main indexes started the last day of November in the negative territory as investors might be looking to book their profits following th

Major equity indexes post modest losses on Monday.The S&P 500 Energy Index is down more than 1%.Technology stocks post small gains in the early trade.Wall Street's main indexes started the last day of November in the negative territory as investors might be looking to book their profits following the impressive monthly rally. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.82% on the day at 29,661, the S&P 500 Index was losing 0.42% at 3,622 and the Nasdaq Composite was falling 0.17% at 12,237. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Energy Index is losing 1.22% on the day pressure by falling crude oil prices. On the other hand, the Technology Index is posting small gains in early trade. On Monday, the US Federal Reserve announced that it has extended liquidity facilities for commercial paper, money markets, primary dealers and paycheck protection program until March 31, 2021. This headline, however, fa,şed to provide a boost to market sentiment. S&P 500 chart (daily)

United States Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index below expectations (59) in November: Actual (58.2)

The US Federal Reserve announced on Monday that it has extended liquidity facilities for commercial paper, money markets, primary dealers and paycheck

The US Federal Reserve announced on Monday that it has extended liquidity facilities for commercial paper, money markets, primary dealers and paycheck protection program through March 31, 2021. The Fed noted these programs are separate from credit facilities that the US Treasury has recently ordered closed on December 31. "Liquidity facilities are continuing to support market functioning and enhancing credit," the Fed said. "The extension of these programs was approved by the US Treasury and will help market planning through the first quarter of 2021 to aid recovery from the pandemic." Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this announcement and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day at 91.60.

The buying interest around the shared currency stays well and sound and pushes EUR/USD closer to the psychological hurdle at 1.20 the figure on Monday

EUR/USD keeps its march north unabated on Monday.Dollar-selling keeps bolstering the upside in the pair.German flash CPI came in short of expectations in November.The buying interest around the shared currency stays well and sound and pushes EUR/USD closer to the psychological hurdle at 1.20 the figure on Monday. EUR/USD now looks to the 2020 high EUR/USD navigates just pips away from the psychological 1.20 barrier at the beginning of the week. The firm upside momentum around the pair remains propped up by the unremitting selling pressure hurting the dollar in spite of omnipresent concerns over the advance of the coronavirus pandemic. In fact, investors keep favouring the “glass half-full” view and look past the ongoing pandemic, anticipating at the same time a “V”-shaped recovery in the global economy. This upbeat sentiment has been gathering extra pace after US President-elect Joe Biden nominated ex-Fed J.Yellen to be Treasury Secretary. In the data space, German advanced inflation figures showed consumer prices tracked by the CPI are expected to have contracted 0.8% MoM in November and 0.3% on a yearly basis. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD’s rally moves closer to the 1.20 yardstick and opens the door to a probable test of the so far 2020 peaks near 1.2020, always against the backdrop of a favourable atmosphere for the risk complex. In the very near-term, EUR/USD appears supported by prospects of a strong recovery in the region along with the increasing likelihood of extra stimulus in the US. Risks to this positive view emerge from the potential political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund and increasing chances of further ECB easing to be announced as soon as at the December meeting. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.30% at 1.1997 and a break above 1.2000 (psychological level) would target 1.2011 (2020 high Sep.1) en route to 1.2032 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.1800 (low Nov.23) followed by 1.1745 (weekly low Nov.11) and finally 1.1709 (Fibo level of the 2017-2018 rally).

After closing the previous week in the positive territory, the AUD/USD pair rose to its highest level since September 1st at 0.7408 in the early tradi

AUD/USD consolidates last week's gains below 0.7400 on Monday.US Dollar Index continues to edge lower at the start of the week.Investors await mid-tier macroeconomic data releases from the US.After closing the previous week in the positive territory, the AUD/USD pair rose to its highest level since September 1st at 0.7408 in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Monday. However, the pair struggled to preserve its bullish momentum and seems to have gone into a consolidation phase near 0.7380. DXY extends last week's slide The data from China showed on Monday that the economic activity in the manufacturing and service sectors expanded at a robust pace in November and helped the China-proxy AUD gather strength at the start of the week. In the meantime, the greenback struggled to find demand on Monday and the US Dollar Index (DXY) slumped to its lowest level in more than 30 months at 91.55. Although the DXY staged a rebound and rose above 91.70 during the European session, it turned south ahead of mid-tier data releases from the US and allowed AUD/USD to limit its losses. October Pending Home Sales, the ISM Chicago PMI and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index will be featured in the US economic docket. Meanwhile, Wall Street's main indexes remain on track to start the day modestly lower and a cautious market mood could cause AUD/USD to start edging lower.  On Tuesday, the AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index and the Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI will be released from Australia.  Technical levels to watch for  

Prices of the barrel of the WTI add to Friday’s gains and managed to bounce off earlier lows in the $44.50 region. WTI focused on OPEC+, data The barr

Prices of the WTI keeps the buying interest unchanged near $46.00.The 2-day OPEC+ meeting kicks in on Monday.Vaccine hopes keep sustaining the demand for crude oil.Prices of the barrel of the WTI add to Friday’s gains and managed to bounce off earlier lows in the $44.50 region. WTI focused on OPEC+, data The barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil keeps the upbeat momentum on Monday, as traders anticipate the OPEC+ will delay its planned oil output increments by three months (originally scheduled to start in January 2021). In the meantime, investors continue to look past the pandemic and sustain the current change of heart around the commodity on firm prospects of higher demand in the months to come as well as rising probability of extra stimulus under the Biden’s administration. On the data front, driller Baker Hughes reported on Thursday that US oil rig count went up by 10 during the previous week, taking the total US active oil rigs to 241. Later in the week, the usual weekly reports on US crude oil inventories by the API and the EIA are due on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. WTI significant levels At the moment the barrel of WTI is up 0.04% at $45.56 and faces the next hurdle at $46.24 (monthly high Nov.25) seconded by $48.39 (monthly high Mar.4) and finally $54.45 (monthly high Feb.20). On the other hand, a breach of $43.04 (high Nov.11) would aim to $40.12 (weekly low Nov.16) and then $37.09 (low Nov.6).

Belgium Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 11.4% (3Q) vs 10.7%

The buying bias around the Turkish currency stays well and sound for another session on Monday and drags USD/TRY to multi-day lows near 7.70. USD/TRY

USD/TRY extends the downside and approaches 7.70.Turkey’s GDP surprised to the upside in the third quarter.Turkeys trade deficit shrunk to around $2.40 billion in October.The buying bias around the Turkish currency stays well and sound for another session on Monday and drags USD/TRY to multi-day lows near 7.70. USD/TRY weaker on USD-selling, data The lira gains extra ground at the beginning of the week after Turkey’s GDP figures showed the economy expanded at an annualized 6.7% during the July-September period (from a 9.9% contraction), well above initial estimates. Extra data noted the Turkish trade deficit shrunk to 42.37 billion during October (from a nearly $5 billion deficit). In the meantime, the pair recedes for the fourth session in a row in response to the broad-based weakness hitting the greenback, while investors’ sentiment still supports the lira following the recent orthodox turn from both the Turkish central bank (CBRT) and the Erdogan’s administration. USD/TRY key levels At the moment the pair is losing 0.14% at 7.7886 and a drop below 7.5657 (100-day SMA) would expose 7.5119 (monthly low Nov.20) and then 7.3970 (horizontal support line off August’s top). On the other direction, the next hurdle emerges at 8.0423 (weekly high Nov.24) followed by 8.5777 (all-time high Nov.6) and finally 9.0000 (psychological hurdle).  

Canada Current Account above forecasts (-9.1B) in 3Q: Actual (-7.53B)

Canada Current Account above expectations (-9.1B) in 3Q: Actual (-7.5B)

Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM) came in at -0.4% below forecasts (0.1%) in October

Canada Raw Material Price Index rose from previous -2.2% to 0.5% in October

Canada Building Permits (MoM) came in at -14.6% below forecasts (-5%) in October

The economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic will be felt for years to come, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, as reported by R

The economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic will be felt for years to come, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday, as reported by Reuters. "I hope we can find a solution to ensure the passing of the recovery fund and the EU budget," Merkel added and noted that the next EU summit will be crucial in this respect. Market reaction These remarks don't seem to be having a significant impact on market sentiment. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 Index was up 0.55% on the day at 13,408.

The NZD/USD started the new week on a firm footing and climbed to its highest level since June 2018 at 0.7052. With the greenback starting to find som

NZD/USD lost its traction after rising above 0.7050.US Dollar Index stages modest rebound in early American session.Wall Street looks to start the day in the negative territory.The NZD/USD started the new week on a firm footing and climbed to its highest level since June 2018 at 0.7052. With the greenback starting to find some demand ahead of the American session, the pair lost its bullish momentum and was last seen gaining 0.18% on the day at 0.7035. DXY recovers modestly The broad-based USD weakness allowed NZD/USD to push higher on Monday. In the absence of significant fundamental drivers, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extended last week's slide and touched its lowest level in 32 months at 91.55. However, renewed concerns over the EU and the UK failing to reach a trade deal helped the greenback gather strength against its rivals and forced NZD/USD to reverse its direction. At the moment, the DXY is down 0.13% on the day at 91.65.  Later in the session, the ISM Chicago's PMI, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Manufacturing Business Index and Pending Home Sales data from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from New Zealand on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures are down 0.25% on the day. Month-end flows could cause major equity indexes to fall sharply and help the USD gather additional strength in the second half of the day. Technical levels to watch for  

Inflation in Germany, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was -0.8% November, Destatis reported in its flash estimate on Monday. This readi

Annual HICP in Germany fell sharply in November.EUR/USD pulls away from highs after the data. Inflation in Germany, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was -0.8% November, Destatis reported in its flash estimate on Monday. This reading followed the 0.1% increase seen in October and missed the market expectation of -0.7%. Additionally, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, slumped to -0.7% on a yearly basis and came in lower than analysts' estimate of -0.5%. Market reaction The EUR/USD pair edged lower after this report and was last seen trading at 1.1974, where it was up only 0.1% on a daily basis.

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below expectations (-0.5%) in November: Actual (-0.7%)

Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at -1%, below expectations (-0.8%) in November

Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (-0.1%) in November: Actual (-0.3%)

Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.8%, below expectations (-0.7%) in November

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman repeated on Monday that the UK remains committed to securing a free trade agreement with the EU as so

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman repeated on Monday that the UK remains committed to securing a free trade agreement with the EU as soon as possible but noted that they will not change their negotiating position, per Reuters. "There are still differences on fisheries and level playing field," the spokesman added. Market reaction The GBP/USD pair erased a portion of its daily gains in the last hour and is currently trading at 1.3334, where it's still up 0.14% on a daily basis. 

Chile Industrial Production (YoY): 3.5% (October) vs 1.9%

Trade talks between the European Union and the United Kingdom over the weekend were quite difficult, Reuters reported on Monday, citing an EU source f

Trade talks between the European Union and the United Kingdom over the weekend were quite difficult, Reuters reported on Monday, citing an EU source familiar with the matter. "Massive divergences remain on three main areas," the source further reiterated and noted that the EU's negotiating team will stay in London for more talks in the coming days. Market reaction The GBP/USD pair edged lower after these comments and was last seen trading at 1.3335, where it was still up 0.15% on the day.

Brazil Nominal Budget Balance climbed from previous -103.42B to -30.9B in October

South Africa Trade Balance (in Rands) up to 36.13B in October from previous 33.51B

Brazil Primary Budget Surplus up to 3B in October from previous -64.56B

Crude oil output of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November increased by 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 25.31 milli

Crude oil output of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November increased by 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 25.31 million, a Reuters survey showed on Monday. OPEC states bound by OPEC+ cuts comply with 102% of pledged reductions in November, Reuters further reported and noted that Saudi Arabia kept its oil supply steady in 9 million bpd. Market reaction Crude oil prices remain under pressure at the start of the week. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading near $45, losing 1.05% on a daily basis.

Moderna Inc announced that it will apply for the emergency-use authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine in the US on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Addi

Moderna Inc announced that it will apply for the emergency-use authorization of its COVID-19 vaccine in the US on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Will apply on Monday for conditional approval of its the vaccine in the EU." "COVID-19 vaccine was 94.1% effective in analysis of phase 3 study after 196 COVID-19 cases." "COVID-19 vaccine was 100% effective against severe COVID-19 in phase 3 trial." "Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial had 30 severe cases, all on the placebo side, including 1 death." "US FDA Advisory Committee meeting to be scheduled for Dec. 17." "Launch trial of COVID-19 vaccine in adolescents expected to be before the end of the year." "No new serious safety concerns identified since Nov. 16 in phase 3 trial." "Expecting to have 20 million doses of vaccine available in the US this year, can start shipping shortly after authorization." "Efficacy of COVID-19 vaccine was consistent across age, race and ethnicity, and gender demographics." Market reaction This headline doesn't seem to be having a significant impact on market sentiment. As of writing, the S&P 500 Futures were down 0.24% on the day at 3,627.

EUR/USD extends the upside for yet another session and gradually moves closer to the psychological hurdle at 1.20 the figure . The continuation of the

EUR/USD remains bid and approaches the 1.20 mark.Further upside now looks to the YTD tops near 1.2020.EUR/USD extends the upside for yet another session and gradually moves closer to the psychological hurdle at 1.20 the figure . The continuation of the bull run initially targets the 1.20 mark. Further north comes in the 2020 high around 1.2020 (September 1) ahead of a minor hurdle near 1.2030, where sits a Fibo level of the 2017-2018 rally. Looking at the broader scenario, extra gains in EUR/USD are likely while above the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1409. EUR/USD daily chart  

The downside momentum in DXY has accelerated as of late following the breakdown of a Fibo level in the 91.90 region and the 8-month support line near

DXY breaks below the 8-month support line.The dollar clinches new 2020 lows around 91.55.The downside momentum in DXY has accelerated as of late following the breakdown of a Fibo level in the 91.90 region and the 8-month support line near 91.80. Therefore, the continuation of the downtrend is a palpable possibility with the next level of relevance at the April 2018 lows near 89.20. Occasional bullish attempts need to surpass the 93.20 level (November 11) to mitigate the downside pressure somewhat. However, as long as DXY trades below the 200-day SMA, today at 95.98, the offered stance is forecast to persist. DXY daily chart  

The European Union is fully concentrated on Brexit negotiations right now, European Commission spokesperson Daniel Ferrie said on Monday, as reported

The European Union is fully concentrated on Brexit negotiations right now, European Commission spokesperson Daniel Ferrie said on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "People and businesses have had time to prepare for consequences of Brexit at end of the transition period." "If no-deal contingency plans are needed, they would be limited and adopted in time for Jan. 1." There will be changes at the end of 2020 regardless of whether there is a new UK deal or not." Market reaction The GBP/USD pair showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen gaining 0.3% on the day at 1.3356.

India Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY) came in at -7.5%, above forecasts (-18.3%) in 3Q

India Infrastructure Output (YoY) down to -2.5% in October from previous -0.8%

EUR/JPY adds to Friday’s gains and managed to flirt with the 125.00 region albeit losing some traction afterwards. Is this important hurdle is cleared

EUR/JPY finally tests the 125.00 zone on Monday.If this level is cleared, then the next target comes in at 127.00.EUR/JPY adds to Friday’s gains and managed to flirt with the 125.00 region albeit losing some traction afterwards. Is this important hurdle is cleared in the near-term, then there are no relevant resistance levels until the 2020 peaks in the 127.00 neighbourhood (September 1). Looking at the broader picture, while above the 200-day SMA at 121.50 the outlook should remain constructive. The October’s low around 121.60 also reinforces this key contention zone. EUR/JPY daily chart  

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (YoY) unchanged at -5.7% in 3Q

Portugal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) remains at 13.3% in 3Q

Fiscal policy in the euro area is critically important given the hit that the service sector took, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Centra

Fiscal policy in the euro area is critically important given the hit that the service sector took, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB, said on Monday. Lagarde further explained that the monetary policy cannot be as targeted as the fiscal policy and reiterated that the fiscal package must not be delayed significantly. Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having an impact on market sentiment. As of writing, the EUR/USD pair was up 0.23% on a daily basis at 1.1990.

The USD/CAD pair started the new week near 1.3000 and started to push lower during the European trading hours. As of writing, the pair was trading at

USD/CAD is falling for the third straight trading day on Monday.US Dollar Index remains on the back foot at the start of the week.WTI consolidates last week's gains, trades below $45.The USD/CAD pair started the new week near 1.3000 and started to push lower during the European trading hours. As of writing, the pair was trading at its lowest level since November 9th at 1.2955, losing 0.25% on a daily basis. USD struggles to find demand The broad-based USD weakness on Monday seems to be causing USD/CAD to remain under bearish pressure. The US Dollar Index, which lost 0.62% last week, is currently at its lowest level since late April of 2018 at 91.63, down 0.16% on the day. Later in the day, the ISM Chicago's PMI, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Business Index will be featured in the US economic docket. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada will release the Raw Materials Price Index and Building Permits data. In the meantime, despite the lacklustre performance of crude oil prices, USD/CAD struggles to stage a meaningful rebound. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down 1.65% on the day at $44.80. However, this move seems to be a correction of last week's impressive upsurge, during which the WTI gained more than 7%, and doesn't impact the commodity-sensitive CAD's performance against its rivals. Technical levels to watch for  

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting reviewed the latest Malaysian trade balance figures. Key Quotes “Exports rose marg

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting reviewed the latest Malaysian trade balance figures. Key Quotes “Exports rose marginally by 0.2% y/y in Oct (Sep: +13.6%), which was better than our estimate and market consensus of -0.4%. Imports fell 6.0% y/y (Sep: -3.6%). The trade surplus widened to MYR22.1bn in Oct (Sep: +MYR21.9bn).” “Overall exports were lifted by higher manufactured exports (+2.5% y/y), thanks to higher shipments of rubber products, electrical and electronics, machinery, equipment and parts, as well as iron and steel products. Agriculture exports surged (+28.7% y/y) owing to higher exports of palm oil and related products. Meanwhile, exports of mining goods fell 47.2% y/y following lower exports of LNG, crude petroleum, and petroleum products.” “Malaysia’s economy is projected to recover in 2021 with improving external demand as a key driver of growth. The year-to-date export contraction of -3.3% in Jan-Oct affirms our 2020 fullyear export projection of -3.5%. We expect exports to rise 4.0% in 2021, supported by a projected recovery in global demand.”

India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR increased to 9531.54B in October from previous 9139.93B

FX Strategists at UOB Group see USD/CNH consolidating within the 6.5400-6.6200 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 6

FX Strategists at UOB Group see USD/CNH consolidating within the 6.5400-6.6200 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.5637 and 6.5802 last Friday, narrower than our expected consolidation range of 6.5550/6.5780. The quiet price actions offer no fresh clues and USD could continue to consolidate, expected to be within a 6.5560/6.5820 range.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from Tuesday (24 Nov, spot at 6.5710). As highlighted, the recent weak phase in USD has ended and the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. From here, USD is expected to trade between 6.5400 and 6.6200 for a period of time.”

The upbeat momentum in the single currency lifts EUR/USD to the area of fresh multi-week highs above 1.1980. EUR/USD now looks to 1.2000 EUR/USD advan

EUR/USD climbs to new highs near the 1.20 mark.Dollar weakness supports the upside in the pair.German flash inflation figures next of note in the calendar.The upbeat momentum in the single currency lifts EUR/USD to the area of fresh multi-week highs above 1.1980. EUR/USD now looks to 1.2000 EUR/USD advances for the fifth consecutive session on Monday and trades at shouting distance from the psychological mark at 1.20 the figure. EUR/USD extends the uptrend always in response to the persistent offered bias surrounding the greenback. Hopes of a strong recovery in the global economy, solid optimism on an effective vaccine and renewed prospects of extra US stimulus under a Biden’s presidency. Data wise in the euro area, Spanish inflation figures showed the CPI is expected to rise 0.2% MoM in November and contract 0.8% over the last twelve months. In Italy, consumer prices are seen contracting 0.1% inter-month and 0.2% from a year earlier. Later in the session, ECB’s President C.Lagarde is due to speak seconded by German advanced CPI and the speech by Board member P.Hakkarainen. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD’s rally moves closer to the 1.20 yardstick and opens the door to a probable test of the so far 2020 peaks near 1.2020, always against the backdrop of a favourable atmosphere for the risk complex. In the very near-term, EUR/USD appears supported by prospects of a strong recovery in the region along with the increasing likelihood of extra stimulus in the US. Risks to this positive view emerge from the potential political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund and increasing chances of further ECB easing to be announced as soon as at the December meeting. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.18% at 1.1984 and a break above 1.2000 (psychological level) would target 1.2011 (2020 high Sep.1) en route to 1.2032 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.1800 (low Nov.23) followed by 1.1745 (weekly low Nov.11) and finally 1.1709 (Fibo level of the 2017-2018 rally).

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.2% to -0.1% in November

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) registered at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in November

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) came in at -0.3%, above forecasts (-0.8%) in November

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (-0.4%) in November: Actual (-0.2%)

Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -8.6% to -6.9% in October

Greece Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous -1% to -3.5% in September

USD/JPY could slip back to the mid-103.00s and below in the next weeks according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highligh

USD/JPY could slip back to the mid-103.00s and below in the next weeks according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘the underlying tone has weakened somewhat, and this could lead to USD edging downwards to 103.95’. We added, ‘the next support at 103.70 is not expected to come into the picture’. Our view was not wrong as USD dropped to a low of 103.89 before closing at 104.10 (-0.14%). Downward momentum is beginning to improve and the risk is for USD to test the 103.70 support. A dip below this level is not ruled but it is left to be seen if USD can maintain a foothold below this level (next support is at 103.50). Resistance is at 104.10 followed by 104.30.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Tuesday (24 Nov, spot at 104.55), we indicated that ‘downward pressure has dissipated’ and we expected USD to ‘trade between 103.70 and 105.30’. USD subsequently traded mostly sideways but is currently approaching the bottom of the range and downward momentum is beginning to improve. That said, USD has to close below 103.50 in order to indicate that it is ready to tackle the month-todate low at 103.18. The odds for such a move appear to be quite high as long as USD does not move above 104.50 within these 1 to 2 days.”

Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in November: Actual (-0.3%)

Portugal Consumer Price Index (YoY): -0.2% (November) vs previous -0.1%

“If there is no agreement on fisheries, the whole (Brexit) thing could fall on the back of it,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney warned on Monday.

“If there is no agreement on fisheries, the whole (Brexit) thing could fall on the back of it,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney warned on Monday. Additional quotes “Fisheries is a more difficult issue than level playing field.” “The UK attempting to separate fisheries from other issues.” “We are not going to play that game.” Earlier today, he said that he thinks a Brexit deal can be reached this week.

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) climbed from previous 12.3% to 13.1% in October

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM): £4.3B (October) vs £4.2B

United Kingdom Consumer Credit remains unchanged at £-0.6B in October

The producers comprising of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are likely to discuss whether to extend current oil output cuts by three to four months or

The producers comprising of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are likely to discuss whether to extend current oil output cuts by three to four months or to gradually hike production from January, as they commence its two-day meeting on Monday, Reuters reports, citing the OPEC+ sources. Sources said: “OPEC+ is now considering extending the existing cuts of 7.7 million bpd, about 8% of global demand, into the first months of 2021.” “Today meeting will be difficult, especially if Russia and Kazakhstan didn’t change their position,” a source said. The informal discussions by the OPEC+ over the weekend failed to materialize, as they failed to find a consensus on oil output policy for 2021. WTI cautious around $45 With a hike in oil output also being considered as an option in the OPEC+ meeting, the WTI barrel remains under pressure around $45, losing nearly 1.5% on the day. The black gold is on track to book a 20% monthly gain this month, having rallied to eight-month highs of $46.24 last week. WTI: Technical levels  

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM): 0.6% (October) vs previous 0.9%

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 97.5K, above forecasts (84.486K) in October

Spain Current Account Balance dipped from previous €1.35B to €0.3B in September

Open interest in Natural Gas futures markets reversed five drops in a row on Friday and increased by around 7.1K contracts in light of advanced figure

Open interest in Natural Gas futures markets reversed five drops in a row on Friday and increased by around 7.1K contracts in light of advanced figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume shrunk sharply by around 102.6K contracts following two straight builds. Natural Gas re-targets the $3.00 mark Friday’s negative performance in Natural Gas prices was amidst increasing open interest. That said, further decline remains on the cards in the short-term horizon with the immediate target at the 55-day SMA around $2.70 per MMBtu.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well under pressure and navigates the area of 2020 lows around 91.60. US Dollar Index de

DXY extends the downtrend below the 92.00 level.Risk-on sentiment keeps weighing on the dollar.Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales next in the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), remains well under pressure and navigates the area of 2020 lows around 91.60. US Dollar Index depressed in yearly lows The index is down for the second session in a row at the beginning of the week and remains depressed against the backdrop of the persistent investors’ preference for the risk-associated assets. In fact, the index drops to levels last seen more than two years ago around 91.60 despite the relentless advance of the coronavirus pandemic. Market participants continue to sell the buck vs. expectations of a strong recovery in the months ahead as well as rising optimism on extra US stimulus, particularly exacerbated after Democrat Joe Biden won the elections. Later in the US docket, the Chicago PMI index is due seconded by Pending Home Sales. What to look for around USD The bearish stance does not abandon the dollar and drags DXY to new yearly lows in the vicinity of 91.60. The better mood in the risk-associated space remains underpinned by a clearer US political scenario in combination with auspicious vaccine news and better growth prospects. Furthermore, hopes of extra fiscal stimulus have re-emerged and along with the “lower for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve is seen keeping the buck under extra pressure for the time being. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is retreating 0.13% at 91.67 and faces the next support at 89.22 (monthly low Apr. 2018) followed by 88.94 (monthly low March 2018) and then 88.25 (2018 low Feb.16). On the other hand, a breakout of 93.20 (weekly high Nov.11) would open the door to 93.34 (100-day SMA) and finally 94.30 (monthly high Nov.4).

Gold’s recovery from four-month lows of $1765 lost legs at the bearish 21-hourly moving average (HMA) at $1784 in the European session. The fresh leg

Gold’s recovery from four-month lows falters.Sellers lurk at 21-HMA of $1784, with eye still on $1750. Hourly RSI turns south below the midline. Gold’s recovery from four-month lows of $1765 lost legs at the bearish 21-hourly moving average (HMA) at $1784 in the European session. The fresh leg down in the yellow metal came after the European equities turned positive after opening in the red, as the risk rally driven by the coronavirus vaccine-driven optimism resumes. The hourly chart of gold shows that the price is headed back to test the one-week-long descending trendline support, now at $1768. A break below which the multi-month lows could be retested. Further south, the July 2 low of $1758 will offer strong support. The $1750 psychological level will be the level to beat for the bears. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south while within the bearish zone, having stalled its recovery, suggesting that the downside could likely resume.   Alternatively, acceptance above the critical 21-HMA could expose the daily high at $1790. The next relevant upside target awaits at the 50-HMA of $1800. Gold Price Chart: Hourly Gold: Additional levels    

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said Monday, he believes that a Brexit deal can be reached this week. Additional comments “There needs to be give

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said Monday, he believes that a Brexit deal can be reached this week. Additional comments “There needs to be give and take on both sides.” “This is the key week, we are running out of time.” “Has faith that Barnier can negotiate a balanced deal.” Market reaction GBP/USD is paring back gains to trade at 1.3335, still up 0.17% on the day. The spot remains wary amid looming Brexit uncertainty and broad-based US dollar weakness.

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.2% in November from previous 0.5%

Austria Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous 11.1% to 12% in 3Q

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) remains at -0.8% in November

Spain HICP (YoY) below forecasts (-0.6%) in November: Actual (-0.9%)

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -1.8% to -1.5% in October

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM): 0.2% (October) vs 0.1%

Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator came in at 103.5, above forecasts (101) in November

Hungary Gross Wages (YoY) dipped from previous 9.1% to 8.8% in September

“If there is great Brexit progress this week, it is possible to extend negotiations,” the UK Environment Secretary George Eustice said in a statement

“If there is great Brexit progress this week, it is possible to extend negotiations,” the UK Environment Secretary George Eustice said in a statement on Monday. Further comments “There is great progress, we're nearly there.” “We are running out of time, need a breakthrough.” “We think there is a prospect of a deal.” GBP/USD rises further above 1.3300 GBP/USD holds sizeable gains while trading around 1.3345, at the time of writing. The reached a daily high of 1.3358 in the last hour.

AUD/USD extends pullback from the highest levels since September reached at 0.7408 earlier in the Asian session, as the US dollar pauses its declines

AUD/USD drops in tandem with S&P 500 futures. DXY stalls in sell-off in early Europe, awaits fresh impetus.Potential month-end repositioning in the aussie ahead of RBA. AUD/USD extends pullback from the highest levels since September reached at 0.7408 earlier in the Asian session, as the US dollar pauses its declines across the board. The souring risk sentiment could be associated with the rebound in the US dollar while the latest drop in the S&P 500 futures also exerts downside pressure on the aussie. Markets continue to assess the economic recovery expectations induced by the coronavirus vaccine progress. Meanwhile, escalating Australian-Sino trade tensions also limit the upside in the aussie. Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said Monday, they are considering a World Trade Organization (WTO) appeal against China’s decision to impose tariffs on barley imports from the OZ nation. Investors also turn cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe’s speech and monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Also, of note remains that the Australian Q3 GDP report and US NFP data due later this week. However, the AUD buyers remain hopeful amid upbeat official Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which suggested that economic recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy is gaining traction. Note that China is Australia’s top export destination. AUD/USD technical levels “Unless declining back below 0.7345/40 area, comprising highs marked between mid-September and November 17, AUD/USD bulls can keep July 2018 top surrounding 0.7485 on the radar,” Anil Panchal, FXStreet’s Analyst explained. AUD/USD additional levels  

Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in October

There is scope for AUD/USD to advance beyond 0.7450 in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “AUD traded

There is scope for AUD/USD to advance beyond 0.7450 in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “AUD traded between 0.7354 and 0.7399 last Friday, higher than our expected range of 0.7335/0.7380. Upward momentum has improved, albeit not by all that much. From here, AUD could edge above the year-to-date high at 0.7413 but the next resistance at 0.7455 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 0.7375 followed by 0.7360.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The positive phase in AUD that started more than 2 weeks ago is still intact. Our latest narrative was from last Wednesday (25 Nov, spot at 0.7370) wherein AUD ‘is ready to tackle the year-to-date high at 0.7413’ and that ‘a daily closing above this level could lead to further advance towards 0.7455’. Shorter-term momentum has improved and a break of 0.7413 would shift the focus to 0.7455. All in, only a break of 0.7330 (‘strong support’ level previously at 0.7285) would indicate that the positive phase in AUD has run its course.”

Denmark Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 4.9% (3Q) vs -6.8%

Denmark Gross Domestic Product (YoY) up to -4% in 3Q from previous -7.7%

The Citibank Analysts have downgraded their gold-price forecasts for 2021 alongside their estimate for flows in gold ETFs, in the face of economic imp

The Citibank Analysts have downgraded their gold-price forecasts for 2021 alongside their estimate for flows in gold ETFs, in the face of economic improvement in the developed economies. Key quotes “Net investment into gold ETFs to hit 800 tons in 2020, 75 tons less than previously forecast and 50% lower again in 2021.” “Sees support for gold in short term at $1,700.” “See price rallies for industrial commodities (eg. copper) suggest rotation from risk-averse to risk-on assets.” “See a move above $2,000 likely in next 3-6 months but barring a fiat crisis, prices may then trend lower.” Related readsGold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to $1750 amid coronavirus vaccine-driven optimismGold's options market now shows strongest bearish bias since April

Turkey Quarterly Gross Domestic Product above forecasts (4.8%) in 3Q: Actual (6.7%)

Turkey Trade Balance rose from previous -4.83B to -2.37B in July

Norway Credit Indicator came in at 4.5% below forecasts (4.6%) in October

Denmark Unemployment Rate down to 4.1% in October from previous 4.3%

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said that the virus numbers not developing as we would like. COVID-19 infection numbers are still much too high

German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said that the virus numbers not developing as we would like. COVID-19 infection numbers are still much too high in most regions. People must show more discipline and reduce contacts to slow the spread of COVID-19. Pandemic aid for companies can't be extended indefinitely. Convinced we won't raise taxes in this parliamentary period.

CME Group’s preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets noted open interest went up for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, this time by a

CME Group’s preliminary readings for crude oil futures markets noted open interest went up for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, this time by around 10.7K contracts. On the other hand, volume shrunk for the second session in a row, now by around 408.8K contracts. WTI now re-targets $46.00 and beyond Friday’s positive price action in the WTI met support in the $44.50 area. The move was amidst rising open interest and leaves the door open for the continuation of the uptrend, at least in the very near-term.

USD/JPY holds the lower ground below 104.00 heading into the European open, mainly undermined by the persistent weakness in the US dollar amid economi

USD/JPY’s path of least resistance appears to the downside.A potential death cross on 1H chart risks further declines. A minor bounce to 21-HMA cannot be ruled out, as RSI recovers.USD/JPY holds the lower ground below 104.00 heading into the European open, mainly undermined by the persistent weakness in the US dollar amid economic rebound expectations. Further, upbeat Japanese Industrial Production and Retail Sales for October cheer the JPY bulls, weighing further on the spot. Meanwhile, falling S&P 500 futures also collaborate with the downside in the major. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot is trending in a falling wedge formation over the last one week on the hourly chart. The price is teasing a bearish breakdown, with the pattern likely to get confirmed on an hourly close below the falling trendline support at 103.82. However, markets are not ruling out a minor bounce, given that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced-off lows and heads higher towards the midline. The bearish 21-hourly moving average (HMA) at 104.01 could challenge the recovery attempt. Above which the critical barrier at 104.10 could be put to test. It's worth noting that a death cross is in the offing as the 50-HMA tends towards the 200-HMA, looking to cut the latter from above. Therefore, the downside appears more compelling in the near-term. USD/JPY: Hourly chart USD/JPY: Additional levels  

Cable is seen extending the upside while above the 1.3365 level in the near-term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Las

Cable is seen extending the upside while above the 1.3365 level in the near-term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we highlighted that ‘upward pressure has more or less dissipated’ and we expected GBP to ‘trade within a 1.3315/1.3390 range’. GBP subsequently dropped to a low of 1.3284 before rebounding quickly (high has 1.3381). The rebound has scope to extend higher but any advance is likely limited to a test of 1.3365. The major resistance at 1.3400 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 1.3300 followed by 1.3280.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a positive view in GBP for more than 2 weeks now. Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (26 Nov, spot at 1.3385) wherein ‘a break of 1.3400 would shift the focus to the year-to-date high at 1.3481’. GBP subsequently touched 1.3399 before dropping to a low of 1.3284 last Friday (27 Nov). While our ‘strong support’ level at 1.3280 is still intact, upward momentum has waned and the odds for further GBP strength have diminished. In order to rejuvenate the flagging momentum, GBP has to move and stay above 1.3365 within these 1 to 2 days or a break of 1.3280 would not be surprising and would indicate that the positive phase in GBP has run its course.”  

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 30: A busy week kicks off with stocks, gold, and the dollar all edging lower together as November dr

Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 30: A busy week kicks off with stocks, gold, and the dollar all edging lower together as November draws to an end. Fresh Brexit optimism is supporting the pound while oil is struggling with OPEC+ disagreements. Vaccine developments and data releases are eyed. Gold has been extending its downtrend decline after cracking below $1,800 last week. Cascading stops and optimism about a coronavirus vaccine seem to be pushing the precious metal lower. End-of-month flows may trigger high volatility. The dollar is on the back foot alongside falling US Treasury yields. EUR/USD is standing out by nearing 1.20 German and Spanish inflation figures are due out during the day. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, will speak later in the day. Brexit: UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab expressed optimism about reaching a deal, pending a compromise from Brussels on fisheries. He added that both sides have made progress on other topics such as competition and state aid. GBP/USD is edging up toward 1.3350. Talks continue in London. Vaccine: The UK regulator may approve vaccines by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna as early as this week. The American FDA may do so late next week. US COVID-19 cases and deaths have dipped from the highs, but the data may be skewed due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Hospitalizations have hit a new high above 93,000.  US Pending Home Sales are set to show strength in the housing sector. Investors are eyeing November's Nonfarm Payrolls due on Friday. WTI Crude Oil has dropped below $45 ahead of the virtual OPEC+ virtual meeting. At the time of writing, there is no agreement on further cuts as some countries want an easing in output restrictions. Chinese Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index both beat estimates, showing strength in the world's second-largest economy. Cryptocurrencies have been extending their recovery after tumbling down late last week. Bitcoin is changing hands at around $18,500.  More Markets return to normal, and traders may be loving it

Traders increased their open interest positions by almost 1.7K contracts on Friday after two consecutive daily pullbacks, according to flash data from

Traders increased their open interest positions by almost 1.7K contracts on Friday after two consecutive daily pullbacks, according to flash data from CME Group. In the same line, volume reversed the previous drop and rose by around 22.1K contracts. Gold: The $1,670 level emerges on the horizon The leg lower in gold prices has accelerated following the breakdown of the critical 200-day SMA around $1,800. Friday’s downtick was on the back of rising open interest and volume, allowing for a potential move to June’s low around $1,670 per ounce.

USD/CAD stays depressed near 1.2985, down 0.05% intraday, ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the pair benefits from the broad US dollar

USD/CAD cheers broad US dollar weakness to trim the early-day gains.Ottawa extends restrictions for foreign nationals’ arrivals until late January.WTI remains depressed as OPEC stays indecisive over production hike.Second-tier data from the US, Canada will be important while the OPEC+ meeting, risk catalysts to keep the driver’s seat.USD/CAD stays depressed near 1.2985, down 0.05% intraday, ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the pair benefits from the broad US dollar weakness while ignoring Canada’s extension of the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led restrictions. Additionally, the recent weakness in oil prices, Canada’s biggest exports, also couldn’t defy the sellers. Public Safety Minister Bill Blair and Health Minister Patty Hajdu crossed wires during the early Monday while announcing the extension of a slew of virus-led restrictions, mainly for the foreign arrivals, to January 21, 2021. It should, however, be noted that the visitors from the US may ignore the stipulations starting from December 21, 2020, if the on-going discussions favor. The decision to extend the safety measures came in as Canada’s COVID-19 count has recently been rising. Official data suggests an increase of nearly 5,500 cases and 56 deaths during the weekend. Elsewhere, WTI fails to cheer the OPEC+ leaders’ inability to agree on the production hikes. The oil producers are set to meet on Monday for detailed talks on whether to ease the output cut accord or not. The energy benchmark loses around 1.85% to $44.88 by press time. It should be noted that the market’s risk-on mood, mainly favored by the vaccine hopes, dragged the US dollar index (DXY) to the lowest since April 2018 during Asia. Moving on, USD/CAD traders will keep their eyes on the risk catalysts and OPEC+ announcements for fresh impulse. Also, Canada’s Q3 Current Account, Industrial Production and Building Permits will precede the US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index and Pending Home Sales to entertain the loonie players. Technical analysis A two-week-old falling trend line, at 1.3065 now, restricts the pair’s short-term upside while a line connecting September low to the November 09 bottom, around 1.2905 now, lures the USD/CAD bears.  

FX option expiries for Nov 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1800 502m 1.1900 808m - USD/JPY: US

FX option expiries for Nov 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1800 502m 1.1900 808m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          103.00 882m 104.00 572m 105.25 576m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7400 777m 

South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) came in at 9.83%, above expectations (9.5%) in October

South Africa Private Sector Credit below expectations (3.64%) in October: Actual (3.24%)

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted EUR/USD is expected to shift the attention to the area above 1.2000 if 1.1980 is cleared in the next weeks. Key Quote

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted EUR/USD is expected to shift the attention to the area above 1.2000 if 1.1980 is cleared in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for EUR to ‘trade within a 1.1880/1.1935 range’ was wrong as it soared to a high of 1.1964 before closing on a firm note at 1.1962 (+0.41%). Upward momentum is strong and EUR is likely to continue to advance. A break of 1.1980 would not be surprising even though the year-to-date high at 1.2011 could be out of reach for now. Support is at 1.1940 followed by 1.1920.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Thursday (26 Nov, spot at 1.1915), we held the view that EUR ‘is expected to strengthen but any advance is likely to be slow-going and 1.1980 may not come into the picture so soon’. While our view for a higher EUR was not wrong, the pace by which EUR is approaching 1.1980 is faster than expected. From here, a break of 1.1980 would shift the focus to the year-to-date high at 1.2011. A break of this rather critical level could potentially lead to a rapid rise towards the next resistance at 1.2060. All in, only a break of 1.1900 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.1840) would indicate that the risk for further EUR strength has dissipated.”

One-month risk reversals on gold continue to fall on put demand. According to data source Reuters, the gauge is currently trading at -0.85 in favor of

One-month risk reversals on gold continue to fall on put demand.  According to data source Reuters, the gauge is currently trading at -0.85 in favor of puts (bearish bets), having peaked at 1.35 in favor of calls (bullish bets) on Nov. 6.  The sharp slide is the result of investors adding bets to position for losses in the safe-haven metal amid increased expectations for swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines.  Gold is trading at $1,768 per ounce at press time, the lowest level since Sept. 6. The metal is down over 5.5% on a month-to-date basis. 

GBP/JPY fails to keep the week-start gap-up while easing to 138.55, up 0.14% intraday, during the pre-London open trading on Monday. Even so, 100-bar

GBP/JPY trims early-day gains while staying near short-term key supports.Normal RSI conditions suggest pullback, descending trend line from November 11 becomes the key.GBP/JPY fails to keep the week-start gap-up while easing to 138.55, up 0.14% intraday, during the pre-London open trading on Monday. Even so, 100-bar SMA and an ascending trend line from November 06 restricts the pair’s short-term downside. With the RSI line far from extreme conditions, the latest pullback from the crucial supports is likely to push the GBP/JPY buyers towards the November 25 low of 139.00. However, any more recovery moves will need a clear break above the 13-day-old falling trend line, at 139.70, to battle the 140.00 threshold and the monthly top close to 140.30. Meanwhile, a downside break of the 138.55/40 support zone, comprising the crucial SMA and stated rising trend line, will lead the pair sellers toward the 200-bar SMA level of 137.30. It should be noted that November 19 lows near 137.20 will be important to watch for the GBP/JPY bears to watch after 137.30. GBP/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY): 8.8% (September) vs previous 10.2%

EUR/GBP is currently trading unchanged on the day near 0.8973. The pair jumped 0.70% in the five days to Nov. 27, carving out of a bullish outside wee

EUR/GBP jumped 0.7% last week but failed to exit a bearish channel. A breakout would imply an end of the bearish trend from Sept. 11 highs near 0.93.EUR/GBP is currently trading unchanged on the day near 0.8973.  The pair jumped 0.70% in the five days to Nov. 27, carving out of a bullish outside week candle. However, the pair failed to take out the resistance of the falling channel represented by trendlines connecting Sept. 11 and Oct. 20 highs and Sept. 28 and Nov. 11 lows.  As such, the bias remains neutral. A close above the channel's upper end is needed to confirm a bullish reversal and expose the lower high of 0.9069 created on Nov. 9.  Daily chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

GBP/USD picks up bids around 1.333/40, up 0.31% on a day, while heading into London open on Monday. In doing so, the Cable cheers broad US dollar weak

GBP/USD snaps two-day losing streak, wavers between 1.3330 and 1.3341 off-late.UK’s Raab sounds optimistic over Brexit deal, EU’s Barnier is in London for negotiations.The UK to become the first western country to approve covid vaccine, Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca may gain initial approval.China’s tussle with the West intensifies, UK bans Huawei’s 5G kit installation from September 2021.GBP/USD picks up bids around 1.333/40, up 0.31% on a day, while heading into London open on Monday. In doing so, the Cable cheers broad US dollar weakness, amid mixed catalysts at home, by keeping the week-start gap-up to 1.3313. Although the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine hopes can keep the bull hopeful, uncertainty surrounding Brexit can trim the monthly gains before the early December deadline. MHRA is on the move, EU-UK stays at loggerheads… Following the last week’s news that the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) is up for reviewing AstraZeneca’s covid vaccine, the Financial Times (FT) conveyed, during the weekend, that the Pfizer-BioNTech product to battle the COVID-19 will be approved soon. This suggests the Tory government is pushing the moves to cure the pandemic. Also on the positive side are chatters that regulatory authorities in Europe and the US are also up for approving the key vaccines, which in turn suggests an early recovery from the deadly virus. On the contrary, the European Union (EU) Brexit negotiator Micher Bernier is in London for the final push over the trade deal. Although key hurdles like fisheries, governance and competition rules are still unsolved, chatters that the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UK PM Boris Johnson will talk over the deal favor the GBP/USD buyers. Read: UK’s Raab: Brexit talks in 'reasonable position' Risk sentiment stays mixed with the US and the UK stock futures trading negative while the US 10-year Treasury yields stay directionless by press time. While the Brexit and the vaccine updates are likely to keep the driver’s seat, the early-month US PMIs can offer intermediate entertainment to the markets. It should also be noted that developments surrounding the London-Beijing should also be closely observed as the joint efforts to battle China by the Western countries like the US, Australia and the UK weigh on the risk-tone and may weigh on the quote. Technical analysis With the confirmation of a short-term rising wedge bearish formation on the daily chart, GBP/USD bears are likely targeting October’s top near 1.3175 during further declines. However, sustained trading beyond 1.3400 will help the quote to refresh the yearly top beyond 1.3482.  

Japan Construction Orders (YoY): -0.1% (October) vs -10.6%

Japan Annualized Housing Starts dipped from previous 0.815M to 0.802M in October

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) came in at -8.3%, above expectations (-8.6%) in October

EUR/USD reached three-month highs early Monday, with the safe-haven dollar extending recent losses on continued expectations for a swift global econom

EUR/USD rises to the level last seen on Sept. 1. Vaccine optimism keeps the anti-risk dollar under pressure. Euro's rise toward September highs may lose momentum if Germany's CPI prints estimates.EUR/USD reached three-month highs early Monday, with the safe-haven dollar extending recent losses on continued expectations for a swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines. The pair rose to 1.1974 during the Asian trading hours, the highest level since Sept. 1, having charted a bullish outside week candle in the five days to Nov. 27.  EUR/USD looks set to end the month with at least 2% gains. The shared currency has remained better bid throughout the month despite the rising coronavirus cases across Eurozone and economically-painful lockdown restrictions in Germany and France.  Drugmakers Pfizer and Moderna announced positive results of their experimental coronavirus vaccines earlier this month, triggering hopes for global economic recovery and rotation of money out of safe havens such as the US dollar and gold and into risk assets. That helped the EUR ignore coronavirus concerns and score gains against the greenback.  However, the EUR/USD's ascent is complicating the European Central Bank (ECB) fight against deflation. The central bank is expected to boost monetary stimulus in December, and the dovish expectations would strengthen if the German Consumer Price Index for November prints below estimates.  Due at 13:00 GMT, the preliminary data is expected to show the cost of living in the common currency area dropped by 0.7% month-on-month in November, following October's 0.1% rise.  The pair's rise toward the Sept. 1 high of 1.2011 would pick up the pace if the German inflation beats expectations.  Technical levels  

Analysts at Goldman Sachs offer an optimistic outlook on Brent oil for 2021, despite the conflicting fundamentals. Key quotes “Brent seen higher next

Analysts at Goldman Sachs offer an optimistic outlook on Brent oil for 2021, despite the conflicting fundamentals. Key quotes “Brent seen higher next year amid a market rebalancing on a vaccine-led demand rebound and only a modest non-OPEC supply response.” “However, the market faces declining short-term demand in Europe due to the spread of virus lockdowns ... "winter wave" will cause a 3m b/d hit to global oil demand, which will only be partially offset by heating and restocking demand.”  “Conflicting signals likely to keep prices volatile in coming weeks will further complicate OPEC+'s decision to delay or implement its scheduled 1.9m b/d January production increase.”  “The base case is a 3-month delay in the OPEC+ output cuts.” “If the cuts not extended oil to drop $5/bbl from current levels.”  Related readsWTI consolidates recent gains above $45.00, awaits OPEC decisionOPEC: No agreement to delay output hike, so far

Gold breached the critical $1775 support starting out a fresh week and refreshed four-month lows below $1770, as last week’s sell-off resumed. The yel

Gold breached the critical $1775 support starting out a fresh week and refreshed four-month lows below $1770, as last week’s sell-off resumed. The yellow metal remains on track to book the worst month in four years after yielding a weekly close below $1800 for the first time since mid-July. The risk rally in the global stocks amid coronavirus vaccine-led expectations of a faster economic turnaround weighs on gold’s safe-haven appeal. Further, month-end flows combined with reduced need for more stimulus also adds to the vulnerability in gold. How is gold positioned on the charts heading into the NFP week? Gold: Key resistances and supports The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the XAU/USD pair remains exposed to further downside risks amid a lack of healthy support levels. The four-month lows of $1765 will challenge the bears’ commitment once again, opening floors for a test of the Pivot Point one-day S2 at $1752.50. The next critical cushion is seen at $1750, which is the Pivot Point one-week S1. Alternatively, recapturing the strong $1775 resistance is critical to reviving the recovery momentum. That level is the intersection of the SMA10 15-minutes, Pivot Point one-month S3 and Friday’s low. Further up, the XAU bulls could face stiff resistance at $1783, where the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day coincides with the Bollinger Band one-day Lower. The Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1790 could guard the further upside ahead of the SMA5 four-hour barrier aligned at $1787. Here is how it looks on the tool   About Confluence Detector The TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence  

AUD/JPY drops to 76.74, down 0.12% intraday, during the early Monday. The quote rose to the highest since the mid-September during early Asia before t

AUD/JPY refreshes intraday low while breaking 100-HMA.Marks repeated reversal from 77.00, one-week-old ascending triangle becomes the key to watch amid bearish MACD.AUD/JPY drops to 76.74, down 0.12% intraday, during the early Monday. The quote rose to the highest since the mid-September during early Asia before taking a U-turn from 77.11. In doing so, the AUD/JPY bulls mark another resistance to accept the ride beyond the 77.00, considering the last Wednesday’s pullback from 77.04. The latest declines get validation from a downside break of 100-HMA and bearish MACD to suggest further weakness. However, the support line of the short-term ascending triangle established since last Tuesday, at 76.60 now, holds the gate for the extended south-run targeting 200-HMA level of 76.30. Meanwhile, a sustained break above 77.00 will have to refresh the multi-day high of 77.11 while targeting the September 11 top near 77.75. AUD/JPY hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/CHF fell by 0.18% on Friday, having faced rejection at the downward-trending 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the preceding week. Essentiall

USD/CHF dropped for fourth straight day on Friday, eyes Nov. 9 low of 0.8980. Key daily chart indicators are alinged in favor of the bears.USD/CHF fell by 0.18% on Friday, having faced rejection at the downward-trending 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the preceding week.  Essentially, the pair has carved out a bearish lower high over the past two weeks and now looks set to test the Nov. 9 low of 0.8980.  Backing the bearish view are the descending 5- and 10-day SMAs and a below-50 reading on the 14-day Relative Strength Index.  A close above the 100-day SMA, currently at 0.9142, is needed to put the bulls back into the driver's seat.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Asian stocks trade mixed as dollar index hits lowest since April 2018 Asian stocks are trading mixed, with indices in China cheering upbeat domestic d

The Shanghai Composite index rises 1% on upbeat China PMIs. Other Asian majors and S&P 500 futures suffer moderate losses. The US dollar remains on the offer on continued vaccine optimism.Asian stocks trade mixed as dollar index hits lowest since April 2018 Asian stocks are trading mixed, with indices in China cheering upbeat domestic data and other Asian majors taking a bull breather following the recent sharp rally.  The Shanghai Composite index is currently up over 1%. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 52.1 in November from 51.4 in October to reach its highest since September 2017, the data released early Monday showed. The official non-manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level since 2012.  Both numbers show continued growth in the world's second-largest economy and look to be powering gains in the Chinese stock markets.  However, Japan's Nikkei index is trading mostly unchanged on the day, and shares in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Australia are flashing red alongside losses in the S&P 500 futures. According to Bloomberg, investors in these markets are monitoring progress on the path to a coronavirus vaccine on the final day of a record month for global equities.  Drugmakers Pfizer and Moderna announced positive results of their experimental coronavirus vaccines earlier this month, triggering an outflow of money from haven assets such as the US dollar and gold and into risk assets. Global equities are up 13% in November.  The dollar index (DX), which tracks the greenback's value against majors, fell to 91.67 soon before press time. That was the lowest level since April 2018. The DXY has dropped nearly 2.5% this month. 

WTI wavers around $45.15, down 1.25%, during the early Monday’s trading. The energy benchmark has been trading between $44.62 and $46.30 after refresh

WTI drops over 1.0% intraday while keeping the three-day-old trading range.OPEC struggles over output hike delay, China PMIs came in better than forecast in November.WTI wavers around $45.15, down 1.25%, during the early Monday’s trading. The energy benchmark has been trading between $44.62 and $46.30 after refreshing the highest since March during last Wednesday. In doing so, the energy benchmark refrains from respecting upbeat news from the monthly Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, mostly known as OPEC+. The group conveyed an inability to agree over the planned easing of reduction in output. While the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led declines in energy demand could be the reason behind the moves, or lack of moves, the OPEC+ meeting is yet to convey the final decision. Elsewhere, vaccine hopes fail to keep the bulls happy for long as traders await actual delivery of the pandemic’s cure is still pending while the tussle between China and the West suggest fresh trade/political tensions. It’s worth mentioning that China’s November month official activity data came in better than forecast. Details suggest that NBS Manufacturing PMI grew past-51.5 forecast and 51.4 previous to 52.1 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI crossed 56.2 prior and 52.1 expected with 56.4. While mixed sentiment concerning risks and the US dollar weakness trouble oil traders, OPEC+ decision will be the key to watch going forward. The major oil producers will convey the key meeting starting Monday and are likely to agree on the extension of the production cut. Technical analysis The energy benchmark stays on the bull’s radar as it remains strong beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-April downside, near $43.65. As a result, the WTI bulls are targeting the March month’s high of $48.74 amid bullish MACD. However, an upward sloping trend line from March 11, currently around $49.30 and the $50.00 threshold can challenge the bulls afterward.  

Australia is mulling World Trade Organization (WTO) action on China’s decision to slap export tariffs on the country’s barley exports, Trade Minister

Australia is mulling World Trade Organization (WTO) action on China’s decision to slap export tariffs on the country’s barley exports, Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said on Sunday. Key quotes “So now the WTO appeal for barley is the next step.”  “We are engaging there with the grains industry and other sectors to make sure we have strong industry buy-in.” “I expect that is the process we will go through. I expect that will be the outcome. We are working through just exactly, how and when.” Market reaction The escalating trade tensions between Australia and China are limiting the upside in the AUD/USD pair. The aussie pares gains to trade below 0.7400, having faced rejection near multi-month highs of 0.7415 in early Asia. The upbeat Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMIs failed to impress the AUD bulls. The spot was last seen trading at 0.7386, modestly flat on the day.

One-month risk reversals on GBP/USD, a gauge of calls to puts, has extended the recent drop to fresh two-month lows as investors continue to add bets

One-month risk reversals on GBP/USD, a gauge of calls to puts, has extended the recent drop to fresh two-month lows as investors continue to add bets to position for weakness in Sterling.  According to data source Reuters, the metric is currently trading at -2.125 in favor of GBP puts – the lowest level since Sept. 24 – versus -0.90 on Sept. 17.  The negative number is the result of put options (bearish bets) drawing higher demand than calls (bullish bets).  GBP/USD is currently trading near 1.3336, having faced rejection near 1.34 last week. 

USD/INR trades near the intraday high of 73.98 ahead of Indian session open on Monday. In doing so, the quote breaks the immediate trading range betwe

USD/INR refreshes intraday high, breaks immediate choppy range below 74.00.200-bar SMA defies bullish MACD amid downward trajectory since November 13.USD/INR trades near the intraday high of 73.98 ahead of Indian session open on Monday. In doing so, the quote breaks the immediate trading range between 73.96 and 73.93 while staying below 200-bar SMA. Although bullish MACD suggests the pair’s another attempt to cross the key SMA level, currently around 74.05, USD/INR bulls have failed twice in recent days to break the important hurdle, which in turn keeps the sellers hopeful while considering the two-week-old downtrend. Other than the 200-bar SMA level of 74.05, November 19 high near 74.32 and November 13 top close to 74.95 also add filters to the pair’s upside moves. Meanwhile, the last week’s low near 73.75/70 can entertain bears before directing them to the current month’s trough surrounding 73.65. However, a falling trend line from November 18, at 73.59 now, will restrict further downside of the USD/INR. USD/INR four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

The economy remains in a severe situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said at a meeting with banking industry rep

The economy remains in a severe situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said at a meeting with banking industry representatives on Monday. Additional quotes “Companies’ funding needs are expected to rise as year-end approaches.“ “It’s true some companies are still struggling with financing.” “Want banks to lend ear to businesses in need of financing help.”

The data released early Monday showed China's economic activity extended its strong growth in November. So far, however, that has failed to put a bid

AUD/USD trades near 0.7392 versus 0.7408 early Monday. China's strong PMI figures fail to elicit a positive reaction from the Aussie dollar. The data released early Monday showed China's economic activity extended its strong growth in November. So far, however, that has failed to put a bid under the China-sensitive Aussie dollar.  China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 52.1 in November from 51.4 in October to reach its highest since September 2017. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which measures sentiment in the service and construction sectors, ticked higher to 56.4 – the highest reading since June 2012, according to South China Morning Post.  A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, while a reading below represents contraction. As highlighted by PMIs, the continued expansion in both services and manufacturing sectors is positive for commodity dollars and risk assets in general.  However, as noted earlier, AUD/USD buyers have remained on the fence. The currency pair is currently trading at 0.7392, representing a 0.22% gain on the day, having printed a high of 0.7408 ahead of the China PMI release.  The pullback in the AUD could be associated with the 0.3% decline in the S&P 500 futures. The global equity markets look to be taking a breather, having chalked up stellar gains over the past few weeks on hopes for a swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines and continued money printing by major central banks.  Technical levels  

Following a weekly closing below the $1800 level, Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its downward momentum in Monday’s Asian trading, renewing four-month troughs

Gold resumes last week’s sell-off amid optimism for economic rebound.Vaccine hopes, upbeat Chinese PMI add to the risk-on market mood. Any recovery attempt is likely to remain shallow below the $1800 mark. Following a weekly closing below the $1800 level, Gold (XAU/USD) resumes its downward momentum in Monday’s Asian trading, renewing four-month troughs below $1770. The precious metal came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour, as the upbeat Chinese official Manufacturing and Services PMIs joined the coronavirus vaccine optimism, exacerbating the pain in the safe-haven gold. Markets pinned expectations for a faster economic recovery next year, as the coronavirus vaccine could likely be rolled out as early as next month, fuelling hopes that life would return to normalcy early next year. The economic optimism reduces the need for the additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, boding ill for the inflation-hedge gold. The bright metal lost 4.5% last week and surrendered the critical $1800 level, recording the worst week since end-September.   more to come ...

The European Central Bank (ECB) should stop talking about fiscal policy as it feeds the perception that the bank is running out of ammo, according to

The European Central Bank (ECB) should stop talking about fiscal policy as it feeds the perception that the bank is running out of ammo, according to Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF).  The 17-nation central bank should focus on the core issue of interest rate differentials and its impact on the EUR exchange rate. "Eurozone interest rates haven't fallen as much as US rates (blue). That's putting appreciation pressure on the Euro, which is threatening Eurozone reflation," Brooks tweeted on Sunday.  EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1969, the highest level since Sept. 1.

Dashing expectations of canceling the coronavirus pandemic induced debt, the European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said that the European Union (EU) b

Dashing expectations of canceling the coronavirus pandemic induced debt, the European Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said that the European Union (EU) budget rules need to be more consistent with expected higher levels of sovereign debt, in his interview with CityAM.   more to come ...  

Turkish Lira (TRY) rose for the third straight day on Friday, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the bearish inside candlestick pattern confi

USD/TRY looks south as bearish sentiment around TRY has weakened. Turkey's third quarter GDP may show a strong rebound in output.Turkish Lira (TRY) rose for the third straight day on Friday, reinforcing the bearish view put forward by the bearish inside candlestick pattern confirmed on Nov. 26.  The bearish setup is backed by a below-50 reading on the 14-day Relative Strength Index. As such, a deeper decline could be in the offing.  The sentiment around the lira was too bearish until a few weeks ago. However, that has recently changed, with many saying that the battered currency has bottomed out, as noted by Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The recent rate hike by Turkey's central bank, coronavirus vaccine optimism, and other policy changes initiated by the government look to have turned the tide in favor of the TRY.  Turkey's real gross domestic product for the third quarter will be released on Monday. According to Brooks, high-frequency indicators point to a strong rebound in output growth in the July-September period, which should keep Turkey's full-year real growth close to zero in 2020, far above other emerging economies. A big beat on expectations may accelerate TRY's rally.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels Resistance: 7.9127 (50-day SMA), 8.0423 (Nov. 24 high) Support: 7.76 (Friday's low), 7.5662 (200-day SMA)

Australia’s GDP is expected to rebound by the most in 12 years in the third quarter, although remains vulnerable to downside risks amid a slowdown in

Australia’s GDP is expected to rebound by the most in 12 years in the third quarter, although remains vulnerable to downside risks amid a slowdown in business investment due to the coronavirus pandemic, the latest Reuters poll of economists showed on Monday. Key findings “Official figures on Wednesday will show the economy grew about 2.5% in the July-September quarter, bouncing back from its first recession since 1991. Some expect Australia's economic output could return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as the first half of next year.” “Growth in the current quarter is seen even stronger as the state of Victoria, formerly a COVID-19 hotspot, emerged out of its marathon lockdown in October, while other states broadly reopened in May.“ “Even so, the country's central bank is expected to keep policy rates near zero and extend its A$100 billion ($73.86 billion) quantitative easing programme next year as inflation and unemployment are likely to undershoot its target range for a while yet.”

S&P 500 Futures print 0.25% intraday loss while easing to 3,628 during early Monday. The risk barometer benefited from the coronavirus (COVID-19) vacc

S&P 500 Futures fail to keep the early Asian session’s positive tone.Vaccine hopes take a back seat as Brexit jitters, Western tussle with China tame risk-on mood.China PMIs couldn’t please the bulls as US President Trump blacklists few more companies from Beijing.US traders’ return after Thanksgiving Day will be the key.S&P 500 Futures print 0.25% intraday loss while easing to 3,628 during early Monday. The risk barometer benefited from the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine news earlier in the day but couldn’t withstand the uncertainty over Brexit and fears of a full-fledged trade/political war between the West and China. US President Donald Trump adds China’s top chipmaker SMIC and national offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC to its blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, per Reuters. The Trump administration earlier announced the blacklisting of four companies from Russia and Beijing concerning Iran’s missile program. Not only the US but the UK and Australia are also sharing soured relations with the Asian major off-late. While the UK recently banned the new Huawei 5G kit installation from September 2021, Australia’s Trade Minister Simon Birmingham conveyed disappointment over China’s latest trade negative measures during the weekend. It should also be noted that fears of further worsening in the global coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers ahead of the vaccine arrival join the Brexit jitters to tame the market’s optimism. Recently, covid figures from Texas and California have been worrisome while the news of the National Football League’s virus-led shutdown marked pandemic’s grip. On the other hand, the UK and the European Union (EU) continue to wrangle over the key hurdles despite suggesting that the deal is close. On the positive side, pharmaceutical regulators from the US, Europe and the UK are up for approving the leading vaccines that have shown nearly 90% effective rates during the final rates. These come from Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca. The news propels the hopes of early arrival of the much-awaited cure to the pandemic. Additionally, China marked welcome figures for November month’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI but couldn’t please the markets, except the Antipodeans. Looking forward, the early-month activity numbers can entertain the global market players while the focus will be on the vaccine news and Brexit updates.

Gold is trading below the widely-followed 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March. The long-term technical line is currentl

Gold has flipped the 200-day SMA support into resistance. The breakdown has opened the doors to support at $1,765.Gold is trading below the widely-followed 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March.  The long-term technical line is currently located at $1,800 and the metal is changing hands near $1,783 per ounce, representing a 0.25% loss on the day.  The yellow metal closed below the 200-day SMA on Friday, exposing deeper support at $1,765 (May 18 low). The breakdown has been reinforced by the bull failure at the former support-turned-hurdle of the 200-day SMA seen early today.  While the 14-day relative strength index has dropped below 30 to indicate oversold condition, the indicator would gain credence if and when signs of seller exhaustion emerge on the price chart.  The immediate bearish view would be invalidated if the metal finds acceptance above the 200-day SMA at $1,800. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Amid the latest on the Sino-American row, the Trump administration is said to add China’s top chipmaker SMIC and national offshore oil and gas produce

Amid the latest on the Sino-American row, the Trump administration is said to add China’s top chipmaker SMIC and national offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC to its blacklist of alleged Chinese military companies, Reuters reports, citing a document and sources.   developing story ....

US dollar index (DXY) remains on the back foot around 91.69, the lowest levels since April 30, 2018, during the early Monday. The greenback gauge bega

DXY stays depressed after beginning the week with a downside gap to fresh multi-month low.Bearish MACD, sustained trading below short-term resistance line, HMA favor sellers.The 92.00 round-figure can offer an immediate upside barrier.US dollar index (DXY) remains on the back foot around 91.69, the lowest levels since April 30, 2018, during the early Monday. The greenback gauge began the week with the downside gap below the yearly bottom, marked in September. With the MACD flashing bearish signals and a confluence of 50-HMA and one-week-old falling trend line restricting the DXY’s immediate upside, it becomes safe to say that the greenback bears have the controls. The same can keep the US dollar sellers directed towards the March 2018 high near 90.95 while April 27, 2018 bottom close to 91.50 and the lows marked in September 2017 close to 91.00, offer intermediate halts during the south-run. On the contrary, September 2020 low near 91.7450 offers immediate resistance ahead of the joint of 50-HMA and a short-term resistance line near 91.95. However, buyers are less likely to consider taking risks of buying unless the quote crosses the 92.00 threshold. DXY hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY200 billion via one-year medium-term lending (MLF) facility on Monday. The Chinese central bank conducte

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY200 billion via one-year medium-term lending (MLF) facility on Monday. The Chinese central bank conducted the one-year MLF operation at 2.95%, unchanged from the previous operation. The PBOC kept the rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive operation.   more to come ...

It is one or the other until breakeven can be achieved, but just like the following GBP/JPY analysis, cable bulls are in for an opportunity on the nex

GBP crosses are setting up for a bullish extension.Cable is on the verge of a break of structure and bulls will be seeking a discount n the way to the 1.3430s.It is one or the other until breakeven can be achieved, but just like the following GBP/JPY analysis, cable bulls are in for an opportunity on the next bullish close.The Chart of the Week: GBP/JPY bulls expecting upside extensionThe following is an analysis of the daily and 4-hour chart which shows that the price is in the throes of the next bullish extension as the correction of the prior bullish impulse meets support.  Daily chart As tight as it is until the next liquidity wick and resistance, there is still the prospect of a 1:3 risk to reward opportunity according to the following analysis: Firstly, the market is bullish and in a swing trading scenario, we want to trade in the direction of the trend having already capitalised on the prior bullish impulse. However, it is always wise to recognise when a trend could be maturing. The current trend is not guaranteed to print a new swing high beyond the liquidity wick's high of 1.3482. Therefore, it is prudent to apply less risk towards this liquidity/resistance. With that said, traders trade what opportunities they see and the price action has all of the makings for a high probability long/buy set-up. Since the last bearish candle's lows on the 19th Nov, the price has made a 50% mean reversion from the highs in a correction of this bullish impulse.  The correction is significant enough to look for an opportunity to get back involved with the trending market. The 4-hour time frame is suitable for identifying the market structure and technical environment for a long position: 4-hour chart  

NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.7050 during the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair rises to a fresh high since June 2018 after China’s

NZD/USD rises to the fresh high since June 2018 after China data.China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI beat market forecasts in November.ANZ Business Confidence, Activity Outlook also came in positive for November.Bulls cheer vaccine hopes amid NZ’s ability to overcome the pandemic and RBNZ’s cautious optimism.NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.7050 during the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair rises to a fresh high since June 2018 after China’s official activity numbers backed the recent upside momentum. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI grew past-51.5 forecast and 51.4 previous to 52.1 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI crossed 56.2 prior and 52.1 expected with 56.4 in November. Read: China data dump beats expectations Earlier in the day, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence, Activity Outlook numbers for November also marked trade-positive figures. Details suggest that the Business Confidence recovered from -15.6 to -6.9 whereas Activity Outlook rose past-4.6% previous readouts to 9.1%. Global trade sentiment remains cautiously optimistic amid hopes of the coronavirus (COVID-19) getting boosts from likely approval from various regulatory authorities in the UK, Europe and the US. However, fears of the surge in the pandemic before the vaccine hit the floor join Western tussle with China and Brexit uncertainty to challenge the bulls. Even so, New Zealand’s NZX 50 part ways from S&P 500 Futures and major Asia-Pacific indices while making 0.30% intraday gains. In the background, we can mention that the Jacinda Ardern-led government’s ability to tame the deadly virus at home joins the RBNZ’s clear no for negative rates. Moving on, risk catalysts are likely to remain as the key drivers while the bulls may also cheer the US dollar weakness. Technical analysis The mid-2018 top, close to 0.7065, lures the bulls unless the quote declines below the 0.7000 threshold.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.5782 / USD vs last close 6.5755. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yua

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.5782 / USD vs last close 6.5755. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland, the current known as CNY which differs from its offshore yuan, or CNH, which not as tightly controlled as the onshore yuan. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.  

AUD/USD rises to 0.7405, up 0.31% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair cheers welcome prints of China’s official activity nu

AUD/USD remains positive after China’s activity data for November flashed welcome signs.November’s China NBS Manufacturing PMI, Aussie TD Securities Inflation flashed more than expected results.Market mood stays cautious optimistic amid vaccine hopes, Brexit jitters and Aussie-China tussle.AUD/USD rises to 0.7405, up 0.31% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair cheers welcome prints of China’s official activity numbers for November, as well as vaccine hopes, near the fresh monthly high, marked earlier in the day, around the September top. China’s November month NBS Manufacturing PMI grew past-51.5 forecast and 51.4 previous to 52.1 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose beyond 56.2 prior and 52.1 expected to 56.4. Read: China data dump beats expectations Earlier in the day, Australia’s TD Securities Inflation grew past-1.1% YoY to 1.4% whereas the monthly figures reversed -0.1% prior with +0.3% in November. Further, Australia’s Private Sector Credit eased in October, to 1.8% from 2.0%, while the Aussie third quarter (Q3) Company Gross Profits stepped back from 4.5% market consensus to 3.2% QoQ. Other than the upbeat data, broad US dollar weakness also favors AUD/USD buyers. US dollar index (DXY) recently dropped to the lowest since April 2018. Markets sentiment juggles between the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine hopes and the trade/political tension between Australia and China, as well as the Sino-American tussles. Also challenging the risk-on mood could be mixed updates concerning Brexit and the covid fears ahead of the vaccine arrival. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 prints mild losses while stocks in Australia and Japan follow the suit. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events may keep the AUD/USD traders directed towards risk catalysts for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Unless declining back below 0.7345/40 area, comprising highs marked between mid-September and November 17, AUD/USD bulls can keep July 2018 top surrounding 0.7485 on the radar.  

china November official manufacturing pmi at 52.1 (reuters poll 51.5) vs 51.4 in october - reuters news CHINA NOV OFFICIAL COMPOSITE PMI AT 55.7 - Reu

China November official manufacturing PMI at 52.1 (Reuters poll 51.5) vs 51.4 in October -
Reuters news China nov official composite PMI at 55.7 - Reuters news China November official services PMI rises to 56.4 vs October 56.2 - Reuters news

China NBS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.5) in November: Actual (52.1)

China Non-Manufacturing PMI above expectations (52.1) in November: Actual (56.4)

Silver prices decline to $22.50, down 0.60% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session. The while metal dropped to the lowest in five weeks on Friday bef

Silver remains depressed around lowest since September 25, flashed on Friday.Oversold RSI suggests bounce off short-term bearish chart pattern.200-bar SMA can lure the bulls during the upside break to the channel.Silver prices decline to $22.50, down 0.60% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session. The while metal dropped to the lowest in five weeks on Friday before bouncing off $22.33. However, failures to cross a downward sloping channel formation since November 16 keeps the sellers hopeful. It should be noted that the oversold RSI conditions are likely to challenge the silver bears around the stated channel’s support line, at $22.18 now, failure to which can recall the $22.00 round-figure on the chart. Also acting as the key downside support is September’s low near $21.65. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the channel resistance, near $23.20, can trigger the run-up towards a 200-bar SMA level of $24.20. During the quote’s further upside past-$24.20, the mid-month top around $25.10, and the monthly peak close to $26.00 will be in the spotlight. Silver four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

EUR/USD steps back from the multi-day high while declining to 1.1964 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair rose to the highest in three months befor

EUR/USD eases from fresh high since September 01.RSI conditions warrant caution, bears are less likely to take entries above 1.1870.EUR/USD steps back from the multi-day high while declining to 1.1964 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair rose to the highest in three months before a few hours but couldn’t cross the upper line of a five-week-old ascending triangle formation. Considering the nearly overbought RSI conditions, the EUR/USD prices are likely to ease a bit to 10-day SMA around 1.1900. However, any further weakness needs to slip beneath the stated triangle’s support line, currently around 1.1870, before recalling the bears. Should EUR/USD prices drop below 1.1870 on a daily closing basis, November 11 low near 1.1745 and the monthly bottom close to 1.1600 will lure the sellers afterward. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 1.1970 will eye the 1.2000 round-figure and the yearly top, marked in September, around 1.2015. It should additionally be noted that the September 2017 peak near 1.2095 adds to the upside filters. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) fell from previous 2% to 1.8% in October

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) fell from previous 0.1% to 0% in October

Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) below forecasts (4.5%) in 3Q: Actual (3.2%)

With the Thanksgiving holidays in the rearview mirror, attention is now focussed on month-end and the inevitable rebalancing flows that it brings. How

AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0517 and remains virtually unchanged within a phase of expansion as bulls and bears fight to break out one way or the other. The range today, so far, has been between 1.0492 and 1.0517 as markets look to Aussie risk events for the next catalyst. With the Thanksgiving holidays in the rearview mirror, attention is now focussed on month-end and the inevitable rebalancing flows that it brings.  However, for the cross, markets are going to start wondering how much of an advantage the kiwi can maintain over the Aussie.   Risk appetite has remained strong while investors continue to look through the rising covid cases and towards a light at the end of the tunnel.  Commodity markets remain well bid, but both the Aussie and kiwi have been benefitting, although the kiwi really took off in November, scoring a new high on Friday, riding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sentiment. Meanwhile, metals, in particular, had a big week and copper added an additional 1.39% Friday at $7,505, up 3% on the week and iron ore marked a 6-year high above $130 as Chinese port inventory dropped for another week to hit the lowest since late October, bonding well for the Aussie, especially considering the disputes over other commodities, such as coal.  Bank to the RBNZ, there will be a focus on how much has already been priced into the kiwi now. Last week, the kiwi benefitted further on the back of a letter by NZ Grant Robertson to the RBNZ. Robertson asked the central bank to consider surging house prices in monetary policy decisions, toning down the expectations of RBNZ rate cuts. The positioning data, which is currently stretched vs the greenback, will be a useful tool in establishing the mood of the market behind the bird going forward and how to apply it to the cross, AUD/NZD. ''Range trading after volatility last week. We think the NZD eventually softens against the AUD, but can’t see a near-term catalyst,'' analysts at ANZ bank explained.  There is nothing to note on the calendar for the kiwi this week, and instead, attentions will with a busy week full of Aussie events, starting with the Reserve Bank of Australia and then Gross Domestic Product.  Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech to the Parliament Economic Committee the following day.  ''We doubt there will be any surprises to digest in the RBA statement. The Bank will confirm it stands ready to provide additional easing if required. More interest in Lowe's parliamentary testimony,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''For Gross Domestic Product, see upside risks to the RBA's 1.75% QoQ average increase in both Q3 & Q4 to meet the Bank's Dec'20 GDP forecast. Consumption, Dwelling Inv, Govt, Inventories to add to GDP.'' For the day ahead, we have the November manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI which analysts at Westpac said will be supported by the resurgence of domestic and external demand.  

USD/JPY refreshes the intraday low to 104.05 as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. Although risk-on mood helped the buyers earlier in the day

USD/JPY trims early-Asian gains, drops for the fifth consecutive day.Japan’s October month Retail Sales, Industrial Production prints upbeat results.Trading sentiment stays upbeat over vaccine hopes, US politics.China PMIs, risk catalysts to remain as the key drivers.USD/JPY refreshes the intraday low to 104.05 as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. Although risk-on mood helped the buyers earlier in the day, the recent data releases from Japan recalled the bears while cheering a five-day losing streak. Japan’s October month Retail Sales offered a surprise growth of 6.4% YoY versus market consensus of -7.7%. Further details suggest that the preliminary readings of October’s Industrial Production recovered from -14.5% forecast and -9.0% prior to -3.2% YoY. Elsewhere, the market’s risk-tone remains positive as major coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine developers are likely to get the regulatory approvals from the UK, Europe and the US. The same will fasten the process of delivery to the cure of the pandemic that has roiled 2020. Also on the positive side are chatters concerning US President-elect Joe Biden’s team and their next steps, mainly surrounding the fiscal stimulus. It should also be noted that the mixed signals relating to the Brexit deal also affect the risk catalysts while fears of the further increase in the covid numbers, until the vaccine hit the floor, offer an extra filter to the market optimism. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures stay mildly bid around the record highs marked in early November whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 prints 0.40% gains to 26,752 by press time. Although risk catalysts are likely to remain as the key drivers, China’s official activity data for November can offer an intermediate trade direction. Expectations favor a mild recovery in the headlines Manufacturing PMI but traders should remain cautious as the Aussie-China tussle can spoil the mood despite upbeat readings. Technical analysis Sustained trading below 21-day SMA, currently around 104.40, directs the USD/JPY prices towards a three-week-old ascending trend line, at 103.95 now.  

Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) increased to 1.4% in November from previous 1.1%

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook rose from previous 4.6% to 9.1% in November

Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM) climbed from previous -0.1% to 0.3% in November

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence climbed from previous -15.6 to -6.9 in November

USD/CAD drops to 1.2978, down 0.10% intraday, during the early Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the pair declines for the second day while staying

USD/CAD remains on the back foot near the monthly low.Weak RSI conditions can trigger bounce off falling wedge support.200-HMA offers an additional filter to the upside past-bullish pattern.USD/CAD drops to 1.2978, down 0.10% intraday, during the early Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the pair declines for the second day while staying around the monthly bottom, teased on Friday, inside a bullish chart formation. While sustained trading below the key HMAs keeps the USD/CAD sellers hopeful, RSI conditions indicate a pullback move from the support line of the stated rising wedge formation on the hourly (1H) chart. However, USD/CAD bears’ refrain from respecting the bullish chart pattern will challenge the multi-month low, marked earlier in November, around 1.2930. On the contrary, a confluence of 50-HMA and resistance line of the rising wedge, near 1.3000, restricts the pair’s short-term upside. Even if the quote manages to cross 1.3000, 200-HMA close to 1.3050 will stop the USD/CAD buyers from targeting the 1.3100 threshold. USD/CAD hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 3.8% below forecasts (4%) in October

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0%) in October

Japan Large Retailer Sales came in at 2.9%, above forecasts (-5.4%) in October

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -3.2%, above forecasts (-14.5%) in October

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) above expectations (-7.7%) in October: Actual (6.4%)

Gold prices recede to $1,786, down 0.10% intraday, during the early Asian trading on Monday. In doing so, the yellow metal fades the bounce off the ea

Gold fades late-Friday’s recovery moves from $1,774.Risk tone remains positive amid vaccine hopes, mixed clues over Brexit deal.China’s official PMI can offer immediate direction, risk catalysts to remain as the key driver.Gold prices recede to $1,786, down 0.10% intraday, during the early Asian trading on Monday. In doing so, the yellow metal fades the bounce off the early-July top, marked on Friday. The reason could mainly be traced to the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine hopes while mixed clues concerning the Brexit trade deal offer extra direction to the bullion traders. Bears keep the reins… Although the global covid numbers are past-60 million and the pandemic is still the biggest threat to the macro economy, the recent developments over the vaccine have been positive to the risk sentiment. Not only the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) but drug regulators from the US and Europe are also rushing towards approving the top-tier vaccines from Pfizer-BioNtech, Moderna and AstraZeneca. With this, expectations of overcoming the pandemic are on the rise.   Additionally, the Brexit deal is getting close to broad agreements, even with differences between the UK and the European Union (EU) over the key issues like fishing, governance and competition rules. Read: UK’s Raab: Brexit talks in 'reasonable position' Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks recently surged to record highs while the S&P 500 Futures gains 0.30% intraday by press time. While the risk catalysts are likely to keep the driver’s seat, China’s November month official activity numbers will also be the key to watch. While the headlines NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to remain firm, expected 51.5 versus 51.4 prior, the Non-Manufacturing PMI may recede from 56.2 to 52.6 during the stated period. If the key activity data from the world’s second-largest economy remains firm, gold has more room on the downside. Technical analysis May high near $1,765 gains gold sellers’ immediate attention unless the quote bounces back beyond a falling trend line from August 12, at $1,825 now.  

With the vaccine hopes all around the bulls’ eyes, Goldman Sachs anticipates a notable increase in the global growth prospects starting from the secon

With the vaccine hopes all around the bulls’ eyes, Goldman Sachs anticipates a notable increase in the global growth prospects starting from the second quarter (Q2) 2021. The report also mentions the expectations concerning the part  of people vaccinated in 2021 as follows: For the US, high-risk groups will probably start receiving doses of a vaccine by the middle of December 2020. UK to have vaccinated about 50% of its population by March, Canada & US by April. EU, Australia, Japan will likely reach 50% by May. Reports like this help confirm the market sentiment, especially when the risk-on mood mainly takes clues from the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine news. Read: S&P 500 Weekly Forecast: Investors getting set for the Santa-Clause rally built on a house of cards

Amid growing worries concerning the Brexit trade deal, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab crossed wires, via Reuters quoting comments from Sky News, du

Amid growing worries concerning the Brexit trade deal, UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab crossed wires, via Reuters quoting comments from Sky News, during the weekend. The diplomat said, “Brexit trade negotiations with the European Union are in a reasonable position, with some progress on competition issues but significant differences outstanding on fishing.” The British policymaker also mentioned that the talks are in the final session while also conveying fears while saying that the European Union (EU) had previously moved the goalposts on a final deadline. GBP/USD nurses recent losses… The news seems to have joined the vaccine hopes to favor the GBP/USD prices to mark the upside gap on the week’s start, currently wavering near 1.3325 during the early Monday’s Asian session. Read: GBP/USD: Bears look to retake controls amid Brexit woes, vaccine hopes

South Korea Industrial Output Growth came in at -1.2% below forecasts (-1%) in October

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) above expectations (-2.5%) in October: Actual (-2.2%)

South Korea Service Sector Output: 1.2% (October) vs 0.3%

NZD/USD takes bids around 0.7040 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. In addition to the broad US dollar weakness, the kiwi bulls cheer optimism con

NZD/USD bulls attack 2.5-year top, prints nine-day winning streak.US dollar weakness, vaccine hopes favor the bulls amid New Zealand’s (NZ) victory over the covid.ANZ Business Confidence, Activity Outlook can offer intermediate clues ahead of China’s November month official PMIs.NZD/USD takes bids around 0.7040 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. In addition to the broad US dollar weakness, the kiwi bulls cheer optimism concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine while probing the highest levels since mid-2018. Even so, the bulls remain cautious ahead of the key data. Vaccine-led optimism offers extra boost to the bulls… The key vaccine developers like Pfizer-BioNtech and Moderna are up for getting the regulatory approval from the US, Europe and the UK, which in turn gives rise to hopes of overcoming the pandemic after wrangling with it during 2020. Read: UK set to approve Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine from December 7 – FT While the vaccine hopes favor the broad risk-on mood, it’s an additional positive, other than the RBNZ’s cautious optimism and NZ’s ability to tame the covid at home, for the NZD/USD buyers. However, the recent tussle between the largest customers China and Australia warrants Jacinda Ardern-led government to check every move. Other than the positives at home, Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election 2020 also favors the risk-on mood. Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks flirt with the record high, marked recently, while the US dollar index (DXY) teases September’s low. Looking forward, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence and Activity Outlook, priors -15.6 and 4.6% respectively, can offer immediate direction to the NZD/USD traders ahead of China’s November month NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI. Although improvement in China’s Manufacturing PMI, from 51.4 to 51.5, can favor the NZD/USD bulls, traders should closely examine the details, as well as market reaction, before taking any immediate decision. Technical analysis Although overbought RSI conditions can recall the 0.7000 threshold, NZD/USD bears are less likely to enter unless witnessing a downside break of an ascending trend line from March 2020, at 0.6958 now. Meanwhile, the mid-2018 top, close to 0.7065, can lure the bulls.  

AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.7385 during the initial Asian session trading on Monday. In doing so, the quote wavers inside nearly 10-pip range around the

AUD/USD stays positive, wavers between 0.7381 and 0.7392 off-late, around three-month high.S&P 500 refreshed record high, DXY probes September low.Vaccine hopes, US dollar weakness favor the bulls, Brexit jitters, virus woes and Aussie-China tussle test the upside momentum.Australia’s TD Securities Inflation, China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI to offer immediate direction, risk catalysts remain as the key.AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.7385 during the initial Asian session trading on Monday. In doing so, the quote wavers inside nearly 10-pip range around the three months’ high flashed late last week. Although China’s latest trade-punitive measures over Australian goods challenge AUD/USD bulls, the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine news and the broad US dollar weakness favor the pair’s north-run. Tussle with Beijing can dim importance of China PMI… Australia’s largest customer China still envies the Scott Morrison-led government’s support to the investigation over the covid root and outbreak. Recently, Beijing announced more sanctions over Aussie wines while stopping multiple coal ships from Canberra from entering the dragon nation, per industry talks. While considering this, Australia’s Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said over the weekend that China’s steps to curb imports of his country’s goods are “aggressive”. The Aussie diplomat also mentioned that such measures undermined confidence in the global economic recovery. Alternatively, governments in the UK and Europe are readying the approval of the leading COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. The news, circulated by the Financial Times (FT) favors the market’s optimism as the global economy has had enough of wrangling with the pandemic in 2020. Even so, the surge in the virus figures and fears of no-deal Brexit warrant optimists to remain cautious. The mood could be well perceived while observing the moves of safe-havens and risk barometers, the US dollar index (DXY) and equities respectively. While the DXY remains depressed around a three-month low, DJI refreshed the record top while S&P 500 probed the all-time high during the last week. Read: S&P 500 Weekly Forecast: Investors getting set for the Santa-Clause rally built on a house of cards Looking forward, Australia’s TD Securities Inflation data for November, prior 1.1% YoY, can offer intermediate moves ahead of the Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI for November, expected 51.5 versus 51.4. Although China PMI becomes the key for AUD/USD traders, the latest tension among the trading partners may weigh on the importance of the data for the quote. Technical analysis AUD/USD bulls cheer sustained trading beyond 0.7345/40 resistance, now support, comprising highs marked between mid-September and November 17, to target July 2018 top surrounding 0.7485. However, 0.7400 round-figure offers an immediate challenge.  
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