जोखिम की चेतावनी: सीएफडी में ट्रेडिंग जोखिम भरी है तथा आप अपनी निवेश की गई राशि खो सकते हैं। कृपया सुनिश्चित करें कि आप इसमें शामिल जोखिम को समझते हैं व आप बर्दाश्त से अधिक राशि का निवेश ना करें। पूर्ण जोखिम प्रकटीकरण को पढ़ें।

विदेशी मुद्रा समाचार समयरेखा

शुक्रवार , जुलाई 20, 2018

Unite the Union, Britain's biggest trade union, has recently announced that offshore oil workers were to ballot for a potential strike after rejecting

Unite the Union, Britain's biggest trade union, has recently announced that offshore oil workers were to ballot for a potential strike after rejecting the pay offer of the Offshore Contractors Association, as reported by Reuters. According to Unite the Union, 106 north sea oil platforms would be affected if workers vote to strike. The initial reaction to this development allowed the barrel of West Texas Intermediate to recover above the $68 handle as it added around 30 cents in the last minutes.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a basket of its main rivals, is intensifying the daily correction lower to the 94.55/50 band. US

The index accelerates the downside to the mid-94.00s.Yields of the US 10-year note leap to highs beyond the 2.87% handle.US President Trump said further tariffs on Chinese imports are likely.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a basket of its main rivals, is intensifying the daily correction lower to the 94.55/50 band.US Dollar turns negative for the weekThe index is prolonging the drop after clinching fresh 2018 highs beyond 95.60 on Thursday. However, the decline appears to have found some contention in the proximity of 94.50, where sits the support line off April’s low around 89.40. The down move in the buck has gathered traction on the back of news citing the Bank of Japan could discuss a change in its monetary policy at the next meeting later in the month. According to latest news, the central bank could debate modifying the yield curve target. Further headlines around the buck saw San Francisco Fed’s J.Bullard ruling out any impact on Fed decisions from recent comments by President Trump. It is worth recalling that Trump threatened to impose $505 billion tariffs on Chinese imports, while EU officials called for retaliatory measures against US tariffs on autos.US Dollar relevant levelsAs of writing the index is down 0.62% at 94.59 and a breach of 94.30 (low Jul.17) would target 94.19 (55-day sma) en route to 93.71 (low Jul.9). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 95.65 (2018 high Jul.19) followed by 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 96.51 (monthly high Jul.5 2017).

C iting sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy strategy, Reuters reported that the BoJ was in active discussions regarding the inte

C iting sources familiar with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy strategy, Reuters reported that the BoJ was in active discussions regarding the interest-rate targets and the quantitative easing program.Key quotesBoJ likely to debate policy changes at this month's meeting. BoJ may debate modifying yield-curve target to allow for natural rise in long-term rates. BoJ may discuss tweaking way it buys jgbs, etfs to mitigate market distortions. BoJ would portray any change as step for policy sustainability, not tightening.

In the second half of the day, a broad-based selling pressure witnessed on the greenback is dominating the FX market. After having a tough time making

Trump and Bullard's comments cause a sharp in the US Dollar Index.Wall Street opens lower, struggles to recover.XAU/USD looks to end the last day of the week in the positive territory.In the second half of the day, a broad-based selling pressure witnessed on the greenback is dominating the FX market. After having a tough time making a decisive recovery earlier in the day, the XAU/USD pair gained traction in the early NA session and touched a fresh 2-day high at $1232. As of writing, the pair was trading a little below the $1230 mark and was up 0.6% on the day. Reiterating his dislike of the Federal Reserve's tightening strategy, US President Donald Trump argued that other major economies have been manipulating their currencies by keeping the interest rates lower and the U.S. economy was at a disadvantage due to a stronger dollar. "Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates - Really?" Trump wrote on Twitter. On the other hand, St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that a flattening yield curve had the potential to hurt the GDP growth and added that the Fed needed to hold off further rate hikes. Although Bullard said that Trump's remarks on the monetary policy wouldn't impact the FOMC's decisions, the buck couldn't find demand and the US Dollar Index was last seen down 0.65% on the day at 94.35. In the meantime, major equity indexes in the United States started the day in the negative territory, reflecting a weak appetite for risk in the session and allowing the safe-haven precious metal to preserve its gains.Technical outlookDespite today's recovery, the pair remains on track to record losses for the week and the near-term bearish outlook remains intact with the RSI and the CCI indicators on the daily chart both supporting that view. On the upside, resistances align at $1232 (daily high), $1244 (20-DMA) and $1249 (Jul. 12 high). On the flip side, supports could be seen at $1220 (Jul. 18 low), $1211 (Jul. 19 low) and $1200 (psychological level).

GBP/USD 15-minute chart  Spot rate:               1.3103 Relative change:    0.66%      High:                      1.3117 Low:                

GBP/USD gained about 80 pips this Friday as the bulls managed to break above the 1.3100 level. Short-term momentum appears to have switched to bullish as GBP/USD is trading well-above all its main simple moving averages. Support is likely located near 1.3049 June 28 low and a bear breakout below the level would be seen as a sign of bullish weakness and a potential resumption of the bear trend. Resistances to the upside are seen near 1.3155 and the 1.3200 figure.
GBP/USD 15-minute chart Spot rate:               1.3103
Relative change:    0.66%     
High:                      1.3117
Low:                       1.2995 Trend:                    Bearish / Bullish correction  Resistance 1:        1.3100 figure 
Resistance 2:        1.3155 former breakout point
Resistance 3:        1.3200 figure Support 1:             1.3049 June 28 low
Support 2:             1.3010 July 18 low
Support 3:             1.2957 current 2018 low
Support 4:             1.2908 September 5, 2017 low 
Support 5:             1.2774 August 24, 2017 low

Major US equity indices witnessed a mixed opening on Friday as traders reacted to the US President Donald Trump's latest comments on trade disputes.

Major US equity indices witnessed a mixed opening on Friday as traders reacted to the US President Donald Trump's latest comments on trade disputes. Investors turned cautious after Trump, in an interview with CNBC, said that he was ready to impose tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the US if China does not back down on its trade policies. The comments pointed to worsening US-China trade relations and resurfaced global trade war fears, holding investors from placing aggressive bullish bets.  However, positive quarterly results from General Electric and Microsoft prevented any significant downside, at least for the time being. Investors focus will remain glued to the earnings season, which will play an important role in setting the near-term tone for the markets. At the time of writing this report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down by around 20-points to 25,053, while the broader S&P 500 Index held near yesterday's closing level. Meanwhile, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index outperformed the broader markets and climbed nearly 25-points to 7,850.
 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the US President Donald Trump is just one more voice in curre

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the US President Donald Trump is just one more voice in currency debate and his comments will have little effect on the Fed.Additional quotes:   •  Not surprised by Trump's comments on monetary policy but it's up to the Fed to take the best action.
   •  Expects Trump to weigh in again but doesn't change the Fed's mandate.
   •  US economy looks very good but the escalating trade war could be a risk to the economy.

EUR/JPY daily chart                 Daily high: 131.23 Daily low: 130.59 Support Levels S1: 130.64 S2: 130.32 S3: 129.92 Resistance L

The cross is now attempting some consolidation after the recent rejection from the key 200-day SMA in the 131.90 region. The positive prospects for the cross remains well and sound, as it keeps trading above the daily cloud. Another move to re-test the 132.00 neighbourhood stays alive as long as the cloud and the short-term support line (today at 129.00) continue to underpin. In addition, the daily RSI reads 59, while the ADX at 18 notes the weak momentum behind the trend.EUR/JPY daily chart                Daily high: 131.23 Daily low: 130.59Support LevelsS1: 130.64 S2: 130.32 S3: 129.92Resistance LevelsR1: 131.37 R2: 131.78 R3: 132.10

Analysts at TD Securities note that Canadian retail sales and CPI both surprised to the upside, with the former up 2.0% m/m on a rebound from weather-

Analysts at TD Securities note that Canadian retail sales and CPI both surprised to the upside, with the former up 2.0% m/m on a rebound from weather-related weakness while inflation picked up to 2.5% y/y, the highest since 2012, as core measures firmed.Key Quotes“We still expect the economy to slow into H2 but with Q2 GDP tracking near 3%, we are performing at or slightly above the BoC's projections. Today's data should be seen as incrementally raising the risk of an October hike.” “FX: USDCAD appreciably dipped on the data surprise. The move was also exacerbated by Trump's latest anti-strong USD rhetoric. The latter may prove fleeting however. We remain cautious on CAD, as the rates market is firmly biased for additional tightening by year-end (leaving less room for CAD appreciation) and trade tensions remain a notable factor for its prospects going forward.”

The USD/JPY pair came under a heavy selling pressure in the early NA session and slumped to its worst level since July 11 at 111.75. As of writing, th

US Pres. Trump reiterates his displeasure regarding Fed rate hikes.Fed's Bullard argues that they should hold off on hiking further amid yield curve inversion.US Dollar Index drops below 94.50 to weigh on the USD/JPY pair.The USD/JPY pair came under a heavy selling pressure in the early NA session and slumped to its worst level since July 11 at 111.75. As of writing, the pair was trading at 111.83, losing 0.57% on the day. The pair's recent fall seems to be caused by a fresh wave of USD selling that was triggered after comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and the U.S. President Donald Trump.  Commenting on the flattening yield curve, Bullard argued that a yield curve inversion was imminent and a real possibility and would be taken as a bearish signal on the economy. Bullard further added that the GDP growth was losing momentum and the FOMC needed to hold off on further interest rate hikes. On the other hand, following his unorthodox comments on the monetary policy yesterday, President Trump, once again, took out to Twitter to voice his concerns over the Fed's rate hikes. "China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day - taking away our big competitive edge," Trump wrote and added that tightening now would have hurt all they had done. Following these comments, the US Dollar Index plummeted to its lowest level since Monday at 94.29 and was last seen at 94.32, where it was down 0.7% on the day. There won't be any other macroeconomic data releases in the remainder of the day. However, if stocks markets in the U.S. react negatively to these remarks, we could see the JPY preserve its strength against the buck.Technical levels to considerThe pair could encounter the first technical support at 111.45 (20-DMA) ahead of 110.75 (Jul. 11 low) and 110 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances align at 112.00 (psychological level), 112.60 (daily high) and 113.15 (Jul. 18 high).

Analysts at Nomura note that May euro area BoP data showed weaker foreign investment in euro area securities, which is consistent with weak EUR perfor

Analysts at Nomura note that May euro area BoP data showed weaker foreign investment in euro area securities, which is consistent with weak EUR performance amid elevated concerns over Italy’s politics.Key Quotes“Foreign investors sold €1.4bn of euro area equities for the second month in a row, while selling LT bonds for the first time in three months (€25.3bn). They were also small net sellers of ST bonds (€7.5bn).” “Japanese investors turned net sellers of euro area bonds in May, for the first time since September last year, as they likely stayed on the sidelines while volatility of Bunds spiked.” “US investors were small net buyers of euro area bonds, but they sold UK bonds and US investors’ demands for European bonds remained weak.” “Euro area investors also repatriated their exposures to foreign equities (€9.0bn). Higher uncertainty on Italy’s politics and spike in volatility slowed both portfolio inflows and outflows in May.” “Nonetheless, net portfolio flows recorded outflows (€26.5bn) for the second month in a row. Net FDI flows turned positive (€18.8bn), but weaker current account surplus and portfolio flows depressed the basic balance of BoP.” “Euro area mid-term flows have been improving gradually, but the pace has slowed recently, as concerns over Italian politics increased in May. Italy’s financial market stabilized recently, but ECB’s forward guidance announced in June could weaken net fixed income flows into the euro area in the near future.” “Foreign investors, such as reserve managers and Japanese investors, still likely underweight euro area assets, and we expect foreign flows into the euro area to recover gradually.” “Nonetheless, the pace of mid-term flow improvement would be slower after the introduction of new forward guidance by the ECB in the near future, which would lead a delayed timing of EUR appreciation too.”

   •  Trump criticizes Fed rate hike moves and prompts fresh USD selling.     •  Bullard's comments add to the USD weakness and provide a sharp lift.

   •  Trump criticizes Fed rate hike moves and prompts fresh USD selling. 
   •  Bullard's comments add to the USD weakness and provide a sharp lift.
   •  Technical buying above 100-hour SMA further contributes to the upsurge.
The EUR/USD pair finally broke out of its European session consolidation phase and surged through the 1.1700 handle in the last hour. Adding to his overnight comments, the US President Donald Trump further criticized the Fed's monetary policy tightening and exerted some additional downward pressure on already weakening US Dollar.  The latest leg of a sharp upsurge of around 50-60 pips over the past hour or so could also be attributed to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's dovish comments, saying that the Fed should hold off on hiking further. Meanwhile, possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered, on a move beyond 100-hour SMA, could also be one of the factors contributing to the pair's strong bid tone.  With today's strong up-move, the pair has now recovered around 140-pips from near three-week lows set in the previous session and turned higher for the week, albeit remains below weekly tops touched at the beginning of this week. It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to build on the positive momentum or once again meets with some fresh supply near a descending trend-line resistance, forming a part of descending triangle on the daily chart.Technical levels to watchAny subsequent up-move is likely to confront strong hurdle near the 1.1745-50 region, which if cleared might negate any near-term bearish bias and might assist the pair to make a fresh attempt to reclaim the 1.1800 round figure mark. On the flip side, weakness back below the 1.1700 handle now seems to find some fresh buying interest near the 1.1665-60 area, below which bears are likely to regain control and accelerate the slide fall further towards 1.1625 support.
 

EUR/USD 15-minute chart  Spot rate:              1.1710 Relative change:    0.60%   High:                     1.1715 Low:                  

EUR/USD is currently erasing all weekly losses as Euro bulls are trying to finish the week on a positive note. EUR/USD has currently regained the 1.1700 level as it is now trading above its main simple moving averages. Bulls this week made quite a statement by yet again reversing the losses seen earlier in the week. A breakout above 1.1730-1.1740 would be seen as an extra-confirmation that a longer-term bull trend might be just around the corner in the coming weeks. In the short-term, supports are likely located near 1.1672 and 1.1640-1.1649 area. A bear breakout below 1.1640-1.1649 area would be seen as a negative for bulls and would lead to a resumption of the bear trend.
EUR/USD 15-minute chart 
Spot rate:              1.1710
Relative change:    0.60%  
High:                     1.1715
Low:                      1.1626 Trend:                   Bullish
Resistance 1: 1.1700 figure
Resistance 2: 1.1730-1.1740 area, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from mid-April-May bear move and last week’s open.
Resistance 3: 1.1790 last week’s high
Resistance 4: 1.1851-1.1854 area, June high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from mid-April-May bear move Support 1: 1.1672 June 27 high
Support 2: 1.1640-1.1649 area, key level and July 12 low 
Support 3: 1.1600-1.1613 figure and last week's low 
Support 4: 1.1560 June 14 low
Support 5: 1.1508 current 2018 low
Support 6: 1.1400 figure

   •  The USD continues with its overnight retracement slide from YTD tops.    •  Trump’s comments exert some additional pressure on the USD. The GB

   •  The USD continues with its overnight retracement slide from YTD tops.
   •  Trump’s comments exert some additional pressure on the USD.
The GBP/USD pair reversed a dip to sub-1.3000 level and spiked to fresh session tops around the 1.3080-85 region in the last hour. The pair built on its overnight rebound from 10-month lows and caught some bids since the early European session, snapping three consecutive days of losing streak.  A follow-through US Dollar retracement on Friday was seen as one of the key factors that helped the pair to recover all of its previous session's losses. The latest leg of a spike over the past hour or so could be attributed to the US President Donald Trump's comments, via Twitter, expressing displeasure over the Fed's monetary policy tightening.  The greenback was also being weighed down by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's dovish comments, saying that yield curve inversion is a bearish signal on the economy and the Fed should hold off on hiking further. Despite a goodish rebound, the pair still seems on track to end in red for the second consecutive week as investors now look forward to the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier's upcoming meeting with the new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab on Thursday.Technical levels to watchA follow-through buying interest has the potential to continue lifting the pair further towards the 1.3100 handle, which if conquered now seems to pave the way for an extension of the recovery move. On the flip side, the 1.3035-30 region now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the pair is likely to head back towards challenging the key 1.30 psychological mark.
 

Belgium Consumer Confidence Index rose from previous -3 to 0 in July

According to analysts at Nomura, as the China’s domestic slowdown may be worse than expected and considering the potential fallout from a trade war, t

According to analysts at Nomura, as the China’s domestic slowdown may be worse than expected and considering the potential fallout from a trade war, they expect Beijing to roll out more easing measures, both monetary and fiscal, to boost domestic demand and maintain stable growth.Key Quotes“After the recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, which went into effect on 5 July, there have been further signs of policy easing in recent weeks, including a possible postponement of the release of new rules on banks’ wealth management products (WMPs), adjustments to an anti-pollution campaign that was deemed too stringent in its past “one-size-fits-all” approach, some softening in the government’s deleveraging drive and, more importantly, a softening in the regulations of the shantytown renovation program.” “We believe more easing measures are likely in H2, including:  At least one more RRR cut this year, likely 100bp;  Increasing commercial bank loan quotas;  More direct funding from either pledged supplementary lending (PSL; China’s version of QE, earmarked for housing in low-tier cities) or central and local government special bonds. Leaving policy and quasi-policy rates unchanged despite further Fed rate hikes; Faster fiscal spending at the central and local government levels, underpinned by faster issuance of Treasury and local government bonds;  Easing restrictions on quasi-fiscal measures for infrastructure investment, such as public-private partnership (PPP) projects and policy-bank lending;  The central government implicitly allowing some major Chinese cities to ease their property price controls and scrap other measures that distort the property market.”

USD/CAD 15-minute chart Spot rate:                   1.3158 Relative change:        -0.99%  High:                          1.3292 Low:          

USD/CAD fell almost 140 pips from its daily high as the Canadian Retail Sales in May rose to 2% versus 1.1% expected. USD/CAD is now back below 1.3155 support level. However, given the current strong momentum, the market might need to test 1.3120 or beyond to find some decent support. USD/CAD is now trading below all its main moving averages suggesting a slowdown of the bull trend. USD/CAD 15-minute chartSpot rate:                   1.3158
Relative change:        -0.99% 
High:                          1.3292
Low:                           1.3138 Trend:                         Bullish / bearish correction Resistance 1:            1.3155 June 18 low
Resistance 2:            1.3200 figure  
Resistance 3:            1.3271 June 29 high 
Resistance 4:            1.3350 figure
Resistance 5:            1.3388, 2018 high
Resistance 6:            1.3543 June 9, 2017 swing high
Support 1:                 1.3120 demand level
Support 2:                 1.3066-1.3053 last week’s low and June 5, swing high
Support 3:                 1.2974 May 9 high
Support 4:                 1.2900 figure

US President Trump recently reiterated his comments about the Fed's monetary policy in a series of tweets that read: "China, the European Union and o

US President Trump recently reiterated his comments about the Fed's monetary policy in a series of tweets that read: "China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day - taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field..." "....The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates - Really?"

EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, is now crossing the wires saying that their main aim is to conclude the withdrawal agreement and adding that so

EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, is now crossing the wires saying that their main aim is to conclude the withdrawal agreement and adding that some elements of the white paper open the way for further discussions. While speaking to reporters ahead of his meeting with the new Brexit secretary Dominic Raab on Thursday, Barnier stated that they needed to finalize the agreement and that they were not there yet. Barnier also argued that finding common ground on security was now more important than ever.

The Canadian Dollar is now gathering extra pace, dragging USD/CAD to the area of fresh daily lows near 1.3170. USD/CAD weaker on mixed data Spot pic

The pair tumbles to fresh daily lows in sub-1.3200 levels.Canadian Retail Sales expanded 2.0% MoM in May.Canadian CPI matched estimates, up 0.1% MoM in June.The Canadian Dollar is now gathering extra pace, dragging USD/CAD to the area of fresh daily lows near 1.3170.USD/CAD weaker on mixed dataSpot picked up extra downside pressure after Canadian Retail Sales surprised to the upside in May, expanding at a monthly 2.0% and largely reverting April’s 1.2% contraction. In the same line, inflation figures tracked by the CPI showed consumer prices rose 0.1% inter-month during last month, falling in line with previous estimates. Additionally, prices stripping food and energy costs gained 0.1% MoM and 1.3% over the last twelve months. CAD is also deriving support from the continuation of the up move in crude oil prices, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate approaching the psychological $70.00 mark once again.USD/CAD significant levelsAs of writing the pair is losing 0.80% at 1.3163 facing the next support at 1.3107 (low Jul.16) seconded by 1.3063 (low Jul.13) and then 1.3948 (55-day sma). On the other hand, a break above 1.3291 (high Jul.19) would open the door to 1.3336 (high Jun.23) and finally 1.3387 (2018 high Jun.28).

The core-CPI figures released by the Bank of Canada showed that the annual inflation remained unchanged at 1.3% in June to fall short of the market ex

The core-CPI figures released by the Bank of Canada showed that the annual inflation remained unchanged at 1.3% in June to fall short of the market expectation of 1.4%. On a monthly basis, the core-CPI rose 0.1% following May's 0.1% decrease and failed to meet the experts' estimate of 0.3%.

"Retail sales increased 2.0% in May to $50.8 billion, following a 0.9% decline in April," Statistics Canada reported today. Key quotes from the offic

"Retail sales increased 2.0% in May to $50.8 billion, following a 0.9% decline in April," Statistics Canada reported today.Key quotes from the official publicationSales rose in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 70% of retail trade. Higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and at gasoline stations were the main contributors to the gain in May. Excluding these two subsectors, retail sales were up 0.9%.After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms increased 2.0%.

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in June, following a 2.2% increase in May," Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in June, following a 2.2% increase in May," Statistics Canada reported on Friday.Key takeaways from the official publication  This is the largest year-over-year increase in the CPI since February 2012. This month's year-over-year CPI increase follows a year of gradual acceleration in consumer price inflation, from a recent low of 1.0% year over year in June 2017. This trend reflects increases in prices for gasoline and food purchased from restaurants, as well as offsetting factors such as lower price inflation for electricity and telephone services. These movements coincide with recent improvements in the economy and the labour market, as well as an increase in oil prices. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in June, matching the increase in May. 

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 1.4%, above forecasts (0.7%) in May

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 2%, above expectations (1.1%) in May

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) rose from previous -0.1% to 0.1% in June

Here are some of the key highlights from St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard's scheduled speech in Glasgow, Kentucky    •  Imminen

Here are some of the key highlights from St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard's scheduled speech in Glasgow, Kentucky    •  Imminent yield curve inversion is a real possibility.
   •  Yield curve inversion is a bearish signal on the economy.
   •  Tame inflation means it's unnecessary to invert the yield curve.
   •  Current US GDP strong but is moderating.
   •  The Fed should hold off on hiking further.

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.5%, above expectations (2.4%) in June

Trump's comments regarding his preference for a weaker USD and disapproval of higher interest rates has re-introduced the debate of Fed independence,

Trump's comments regarding his preference for a weaker USD and disapproval of higher interest rates has re-introduced the debate of Fed independence, according to analysts at TD Securities.Key Quotes“This is more noise than direction as he alone will likely yield little to no influence over Fed decision-making. At this juncture, few alternatives exist at this time to check USD firmness.” “This is likely to be aided by a higher trajectory for USDCNY. Our year-end target was achieved much sooner than expected. Despite the swift ascent, we look for additional topside and eye 7.10 by year-end. The spillover effect is likely to permeate through selective EM and G10 FX markets, keeping the USD a stable but firm for the time being until a macro catalyst suggests otherwise.”

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in June

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in June

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) registered at 1.3%, below expectations (1.4%) in June

The AUD/USD pair closed the previous day below the 0.74 mark and extended its losses as the Chinese Yuan extended its losses to a fresh 2018 lows amid

US Dollar Index extends losses below 95.Copper futures add more than 1% on Friday.There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from the U.S.The AUD/USD pair closed the previous day below the 0.74 mark and extended its losses as the Chinese Yuan extended its losses to a fresh 2018 lows amid escalating concerns over the China-U.S. trade conflict. However, following the initial drop to a fresh 17-day low at 0.7317, the pair reversed its course and erased all of its daily losses to turn positive above mid-0.73s. At the moment, the pair is trading at 0.7375, adding 0.27% on the day. A sharp recovery witnessed in the CNY and a robust rally seen in copper prices helped the commodity-sensitive aussie. After recording losses for four straight days since Monday, copper futures are now up nearly 1.5% at 2.735. On the other hand, a notable USD weakness provided some extra fuel to the pair's daily surge as well. The US Dollar Index, which came under a sharp selling pressure in the late NA session after US President Trump voiced his displeasure about the Fed's rate hikes, struggled to make a decisive recovery above the 95 mark amid a lack of fundamental catalysts that could wake the USD bulls up. As of writing, the index was down 0.25% on the day at 94.73. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from the U.S. and the DXY is likely to continue to impact the pair's price action.Technical levels to consider The initial resistance for the pair aligns at 0.7400 (20-DMA) ahead of 0.7465 (50-DMA) and 0.7500 (psychological level). On the downside, supports align at 0.7360 (Jul. 19 closing level), 0.7315/10 (Jul. 20/Jul.2 low) and 0.7285 (Jan. 6, 2017, low).

   •  Trump’s comments continue to weigh on the USD.    •  Risk-off mood benefits JPY and adds to the selling bias. The USD/JPY pair held on to its

   •  Trump’s comments continue to weigh on the USD.
   •  Risk-off mood benefits JPY and adds to the selling bias.
The USD/JPY pair held on to its weaker tone through the mid-European session and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 112.25-20 region. The US President Donald Trump's comments on Thursday, during an interview with CNBC, expressing displeasure about the Fed's monetary tightening, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and exerted some downward pressure.  In the second part of the interview, aired this Friday, Trump showed readiness to impose tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese goods imported to the US if China does not back down on its trade policies and resurfaced fears of a full-blown global trade war.  This coupled with a weaker tone across European equity markets boosted the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and further collaborated to the pair's weaker tone on the last trading day of the week. Technical AnalysisThe pair now seems to have formed a bearish head & shoulders chart pattern on the 30-mins. chart and the same would be confirmed on a decisive break below the neckline support. Technical indicators on the said chart are holding in negative territory and hence, support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide, amid absent market moving economic releases. Spot rate: 112.23
Daily High: 112.62
Trend: BearishResistance
R1: 112.62 (current day swing high)
R2: 113.08 (R1 daily pivot-point)
R3: 113.39 (YTD tops set on Jan. 8)Support
S1: 112.05 (overnight 1-week low)
S2: 111.80 (bearish H&S breakdown target)
S3: 111.44 (S2 daily pivot-point)

DXY hourly chart                 Daily high: 95.50 Daily low: 94.99 Support Levels S1: 94.85 S2: 94.52 S3: 94.12 Resistance Levels R

The index receded from yesterday’s YTD peaks in at 95.65 on comments by President Trump. The correction lower, however, found strong contention in the hourly low at 94.95.The outlook for the buck remains positive while sustained by the 3-month support line, today at 94.51, with the immediate target now at 96.04 (50% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop).The bullish stance remains in play after the index charted an ‘outside day’ on Tuesday and the subsequent follow through to levels beyond 95.60.The daily ADX reads 23.50, still indicative of a weak trend. The current momentum, however, seems to be gathering some momentum.DXY hourly chart                Daily high: 95.50 Daily low: 94.99Support LevelsS1: 94.85 S2: 94.52 S3: 94.12Resistance LevelsR1: 95.58 R2: 95.98 R3: 96.31

Brazil Mid-month Inflation below forecasts (0.75%) in July: Actual (0.64%)

According to analysts at Nomura, the direct impact of the US import tariff hikes on China’s growth may be limited. Key Quotes “Given a 25% tariff on

According to analysts at Nomura, the direct impact of the US import tariff hikes on China’s growth may be limited.Key Quotes“Given a 25% tariff on USD50bn of Chinese exports to the US and a potential 10% tariff on another USD200bn (total increased tariffs at USD32.5bn = USD50bn*25% + USD200bn*10%), Chinese exports subject to tariffs could be as high as USD250bn (USD50bn + USD200bn), which would comprise around 49-58% of 2017 annual exports to the US (Chinese exports to the US in 2017 totalled USD433bn according to China Custom’s statistics and USD506bn according to the US government statistics).” “However, relative to China’s total exports (USD2.26trn) and nominal GDP (around USD12.25trn) in 2017, we estimate that the affected exports would equate to just around 11% of total exports and 2.0% of annual GDP, and the increased tariffs (USD32.5bn) would be much less, at 1.4% of total exports and 0.3% of GDP.” “We also estimate the impact on China's inflation would be quite small. The affected imports from the US (so far at USD50bn) account for 2.7% of China's total imports (USD1.8trn in 2017), and a tariff hike of 25% on the USD50bn Chinese exports would equate to an average rise in overall import prices of 0.6pp.” “A simple regression of historical data implies that a 1pp rise in import prices would correspond to a 0.4pp increase in PPI inflation and a 0.1pp increase in CPI inflation. Thus, the 0.6pp increase in import price inflation could lead to a 0.2pp increase in PPI inflation and a 0.1pp increase in CPI inflation; suggesting any inflationary pressures from the tariff hike would be minor.” “The indirect impact could be significantly bigger  Although the direct impact on China’s growth from the US tariff could be quite small, there may be a bigger indirect impact via rising uncertainty, especially when considering mounting domestic challenges (more credit defaults, a problematic property sector, overloaded debt, and reforms urgently needed). Moreover, rising trade tensions may seep into investment, as exporters, including those multinationals, could shift their factories to other countries to avert the tariff. Consequently, in the medium- to long-term, if China-US trade tensions sustain over the long term, China’s growth would likely be hit beyond the scale that those trade data would indicate.”

Piotr Matys, EM FX Strategist at Rabobank, explains that they have argued that the reluctance to even consider a rate hike by Poland’s rate setters le

Piotr Matys, EM FX Strategist at Rabobank, explains that they have argued that the reluctance to even consider a rate hike by Poland’s rate setters led by Governor Glapinski leaves the zloty more sensitive and vulnerable to the global backdrop.Key Quotes“The latest comments from Poland’s most hawkish policy maker Kamil Zubelewicz validated our view. “The dovish rhetoric, in my opinion, is unnecessary and it doesn’t serve the Polish currency,” Mr Zubelewicz said in an interview with Bloomberg.” “The higher the core inflation, the more important the role of the Polish currency exchange rate and its volatility,” he told Bloomberg. “They impact many non-core components of inflation. That’s why the currency is so important for the stability of our monetary policy.” “We fully agree with Mr Zubelewicz. To recall, earlier this week we wrote that we find it increasingly difficult to justify the wait-and-see approach. The labour market continues to tighten, which applies upside pressure on wage growth at the time when private consumption is a major source of growth. The outlook for the Polish economy is relatively positive and maintaining GDP growth at or even above 4% y/y in the coming quarters is a realistic scenario.” “It is also worth noting that last year the NBP used a stronger zloty as one of the main reasons not to raise rates. However, so far this year the zloty has actually depreciated. A weaker currency would not only have inflationary consequences due to higher costs of imports, but a far more volatile zloty could also undermine confidence amongst households and corporates.” “While comments from Mr Zubelewicz are positive for the zloty, as long as Governor Glapinski is not concerned about a weaker currency, it is difficult to expect that he will abandon his preference – shared by the majority of the MPC - to keep rates on hold throughout 2019 and perhaps until 2020. The wait-and-see bias will continue to weigh on the zloty.”

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted open interest rose by almost 5K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 196,891 contracts.

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted open interest rose by almost 5K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 196,891 contracts. In the same direction, volume increased by around 10.3K contracts.GBP/USD scope for further decline alleviatedCable recorded a fresh yearly low on Thursday around 1.2960 and rebounded on the back of sudden USD-weakness. The move has been on the back of rising open interest and volume, allowing some extra recovery in the near term, although risks remain broadly to the downside.

   •  The cross struggled to build on overnight bullish breakthrough a nine-month-old descending trend-line resistance and has now snapped four consec

   •  The cross struggled to build on overnight bullish breakthrough a nine-month-old descending trend-line resistance and has now snapped four consecutive days of winning streak.   •  The corrective fall has now dragged the pair below a short-term ascending trend-line on the 1-hourly chart, albeit bulls have managed to hold the cross above 50-hour SMA support.   •  A subsequent below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.8817-0.8958 this week's upsurge might prompt some additional long-unwinding trade on the last trading day of the week. EUR/GBP 1-hourly chartSpot rate: 0.8936
Daily High: 0.8958
Trend: Short-term bearishResistance
R1: 0.8958 (current day swing high)
R2: 0.8989 (R2 daily pivot-point)
R3: 0.9000 (psychological round figure mark)Support
S1: 0.8913 (9-month old trend-line resistance break-point)
S2: 0.8881 (S2 daily pivot-point)
S3: 0.8822 (200-day SMA)
 

India FX Reserves, USD down to $405.08B from previous $405.81B

The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow was quoted saying, via Axios, that Trump won't 'let go' of China trade issue, regardless of mid-terms. 

The White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow was quoted saying, via Axios, that Trump won't 'let go' of China trade issue, regardless of mid-terms. Key quotes:   •  Trump has no political reason to dial down the trade fight with China.
   •  China's Xi doesn't want to move on trade and they’ve offered the US absolutely no options regarding the issue of IP theft and forced technology transfer.
   •  If the plot thickens with no progress, they will start going after American companies operating in China.

Analysts at Nomura explain that policy announcements at June’s ECB meeting were more surprising in their timing than content as it made some important

Analysts at Nomura explain that policy announcements at June’s ECB meeting were more surprising in their timing than content as it made some important changes to its guidance on the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and rates.Key Quotes“On the former, the ECB intends to wind down its net purchases from £30bn to £15bn in Q4 this year and cease purchases altogether from the start of 2019. Reinvestments of maturing securities are seen continuing for “an extended period of time” thereafter.” “On the latter, the ECB’s “enhanced” guidance is for official interest rates to remain at present levels “at least through the summer of 2019”. With these announcements a long period of inaction is likely. Assuming the ECB delivers on its APP guidance then – if we are right – the next move by the ECB should be to raise the depo rate in September next year.” “There is some uncertainty as to what the ECB actually meant by “through the summer” in the context of leaving rates on hold.” “Elsewhere, prospects have been raised of a “twist operation” (similar to that of the Fed in 2011) whereby the ECB reinvests into longer maturity assets – while this may feature in the Q&A a direct answer from Mr Draghi may be less forthcoming.” “Market concerns about populism, trade tensions, macroeconomic and structural imbalances (and a general unwillingness to do much to correct them), a maturing cycle and a less vibrant global backdrop are all enough to keep policymakers up at night.” “While Mr Draghi may be coaxed into touching on some of these issues in more depth in the Q&A that follows his prepared remarks, it seems likely that the ECB’s language regarding the economic outlook will remain relatively upbeat – as it was in June (though the staff forecasts for 0.5% q-o-q growth in Q2 may well be too high – our own view is 0.4%).” “Mr Draghi’s language at that meeting’s press conference included “substantial” progress towards a sustained adjustment in inflation, “underlying”, “solid” and “broad-based” strength in activity, and general optimism on the outlook for consumption and business investment.” “In short, the ECB seems more confident that inflation is on a path back towards its primary objective and that the slowing in growth in the first half of this year will to at least some extent prove temporary. This is reflected in the ECB’s upbeat staff forecasts for growth (above ours for 2019 and 2020) and inflation (1.7% in each year of the forecast – the same as our own view).”

After reaching the 1.1680 vicinity during overnight trading, EUR/USD has given away those gains and is now situated in the 1.1650 region amidst lack o

The pair erodes initial gains and now hovers over the 1.1650 area.Upside remains capped by the 1.1675/80 band, recent peaks.Trump threatens with further tariffs on Chinese products.After reaching the 1.1680 vicinity during overnight trading, EUR/USD has given away those gains and is now situated in the 1.1650 region amidst lack of a clear direction.EUR/USD looks to tradeSpot climbed, tested and retraced from the 1.1680 region today after President Trump said he favours a weaker greenback while at the same time he criticized the ongoing tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve. Later, in a statement, the White House said that Trump respects the independence of the Fed and that he does not intend to interfere in the central bank’s decisions on monetary policy. Trump’s comments came in amidst the persistent selling bias around the Chinese Yuan. Still with Trump, he threatened to impose further tariffs on Chinese imports worth $505 billion, while Chancellor A.Merkel said the EU is ready to retaliate against US tariffs on autos. Absent releases in both sides of the Atlantic, the trade effervescence between the US, China and the EU is poised to drive the sentiment in the global markets for the time being.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.07% at 1.1651 facing the next hurdle at 1.1678 (high Jul.19) followed by 1.1718 (monthly low Dec.12 2017) and finally 1.1746 (high Jul.17). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.1575 (low Jul.19) would open the door to 1.1527 (low Jun.29) and then 1.1508 (2018 low May 30).

Japanese investment in foreign securities recovered in June, as banks became net buyers of foreign bonds again, notes the research team at Nomura. Ke

Japanese investment in foreign securities recovered in June, as banks became net buyers of foreign bonds again, notes the research team at Nomura.Key Quotes“Momentum of foreign investment activities excluding banks remained largely unchanged in June. Lifers were small net sellers of foreign bonds, but pension funds and toshin companies were major net buyers.” “Pension funds were also net buyers of domestic equities, confirming their strong dip buying stances. Foreign investors were major net sellers of Japanese equities in June, but the recent weekly data show their demand for Japanese equities has recovered recently.”

The Canadian economic data overview Statistics Canada will publish domestic consumer inflation figures for June along with monthly retail sales data

The Canadian economic data overviewStatistics Canada will publish domestic consumer inflation figures for June along with monthly retail sales data for the month of May at 1230 GMT this Friday. The headline CPI is expected to have risen by 2.4% y/y in June, while the broader BoC measure of core inflation is also expected to have ticked higher to 1.4% as compared to previous month's reading of 2.2% and 1.3% respectively.  Separately, the monthly retail sales are expected to have reversed majority of previous month's decline and come in to show a 1.1% m/m growth for May. The measure of sales that excludes automobiles – core retail sales – is projected to have expanded by 0.7% in May, following a 0.1% contraction in the previous month.How could the data affect USD/CAD?Ahead of the key releases, marking the first top-tier data for the Canadian economy since the July BoC meeting, the pair has already started correcting from the 1.3300 neighborhood, or three-week tops. Stronger than expected reading(s) should prompt some additional long unwinding trade and continue exerting downward pressure, while a softer data should assist the pair to regain positive traction and assist bulls to make a fresh attempt to decisively break through the 1.3300 handle.  Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst explains, “1.3295 capped the pair on July 19th and is an immediate line of resistance. 1.3350 was a high point in late June and also in 2017. The 2018 peak of 1.3380 is next. Further above, the round number of 1.3500 is of importance.” “1.3220 limited the pair's advance in early July. 1.3105 was a low point around the same time. Close by, 1.300 worked as support early in July.  Even lower, 1.2950 was a stepping stone on the way up, back in mid-June,” he adds further.Key Notes:   •  Canadian data preview    •  Canada retail sales and inflation    •  USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bulls finding it difficult to make it through 61.8% Fibo. expansion levelAbout the Canadian CPI and retail salesConsumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator of inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD. The Retail Sales released by the Statistics Canada is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the CAD.

Reuters reports comments from the UK PM Theresa May, as she addresses the issue on the Irish border. Key Headlines: 'Absolutely committed' to devisi

Reuters reports comments from the UK PM Theresa May, as she addresses the issue on the Irish border.Key Headlines:'Absolutely committed' to devising a workable backstop. White paper proposals can move on the Brexit negotiations. Must rule out free trade deal on offer from EU that creates a border with N. Ireland. There can never be a hard border between Ireland and N. Ireland. EU backstop proposal doesn't preserve the UK internal market. EU must now evolve its Brexit position. EU must not fall back onto earlier Brexit positions and must respond to the white paper.

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair remains poised for a probable correction lower. Key Quotes “USD/JPY is e

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair remains poised for a probable correction lower.Key QuotesUSD/JPY is extremely close to the 200 week moving average at 113.29 and is seeing some profit taking here. We note the complex divergence of the daily RSI, the TD perfected set up on the daily chart and together with a 13 count on the 240 minute chart. These all point to a probable correction lower and we would exit any remaining long positions. This represents the break point to 114.73, the November 2017 high. (Our much longer term target is the 125.86 2015 high). The market stays bid above the 110.41 55 day ma”. “Below the 55 day ma at 110.41 will target the 8 th June low at 109.20. Loss of 109.20 (8th June low) would imply a slide back to the 108.21 29th May low and the mid-February high at 107.91”

Having consolidated briefly around the midpoint of the 1.32 handle in early trades, the USD/CAD pair broke to the downside post-European open, now att

Loonie cheers the oil-price recovery amid broad US dollar weakness.Looks to Canada’s CPI and retail sales report for fresh trading impetus.Having consolidated briefly around the midpoint of the 1.32 handle in early trades, the USD/CAD pair broke to the downside post-European open, now attempting a tepid recovery near 1.3250 region.  USD/CAD: Focus on Canada’s CPI and retail salesThe spot extended its retreat from near 1.3300 levels into the European session, as the renewed selling interest around the US dollar gathered pace, with markets still weighing in the disagreement by the US President Trump on the Fed’s Chair Powell’s rate hike stance. The renewed weakness in the major can be attributed to a pick-up in demand for the resource-linked Loonie, as oil prices attempt gains ahead of the US Bakers Hughes rigs count data.   In the meantime, the pair eagerly awaits the Canadian CPI and retail sales data for fresh hints on the Canadian economic outlook, which could have a significant impact on the CAD pair.USD/CAD Technical LevelsFXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam notes, “1.3295 capped the pair on July 19th and is an immediate line of resistance. 1.3350 was a high point in late June and also in 2017. The 2018 peak of 1.3380 is next. Further above, the round number of 1.3500 is of importance. 1.3220 limited the pair's advance in early July. 1.3105 was a low point around the same time. Close by, 1.300 worked as support early in July.  Even lower, 1.2950 was a stepping stone on the way up, back in mid-June.”   

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added nearly 2.6K contracts to their open interest positions on Thur

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added nearly 2.6K contracts to their open interest positions on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 490,608 contracts. Volume followed suit, up around 77.1K contracts.EUR/USD deeper retracement looks unlikelyYesterday’s EUR/USD test of the 1.1570 region and subsequent recovery has been on the back of rising both open interest and volume, allowing the potential for a corrective upside. On the downside, the 1.1500 neighbourhood still emerges on the horizon, however, a deeper pullback seems to have lost traction in the very near term.

In UK, politics remained in the spotlight as the government narrowly survived the crucial customs union vote largely thanks to five Labour rebels, not

In UK, politics remained in the spotlight as the government narrowly survived the crucial customs union vote largely thanks to five Labour rebels, notes the research team at Nomura.Key Quotes“Theresa May’s favourability ratings continue to plummet and there is still the chance of a leadership challenge over summer, even though Summer Recess for Parliament is due to start next week.” “UK data this week -CPI and Retail Sales- came in softer than expected, but we still expect that the BOE is on track to hike at August’s meeting.”

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that retail sales and CPI will provide the first top-tier data for the Canadian economy since the July BoC meeting.

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that retail sales and CPI will provide the first top-tier data for the Canadian economy since the July BoC meeting.Key Quotes“TD looks for an above-consensus 1.3% increase(market: 1.0%) in retail sales as the weather-related drag from April unwinds. Motor vehicle sales should lead the pickup, leaving ex-auto sales 0.5% higher on the month, in line with market expectations.” “For CPI we are on-consensus for inflation to edge higher to 2.3% y/y from 2.2% in May, re1flecting unchanged prices on the month.”  

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the next BOJ meeting on 30-31 July represents interesting event risk for Japan trading and fundamentally, they believe

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the next BOJ meeting on 30-31 July represents interesting event risk for Japan trading and fundamentally, they believe the meeting will be negative for JPY in the medium term.Key Quotes“Likely significant lowering of inflation forecasts suggests the window for BOJ policy normalization is now closing. However, the meeting is an opportunity for the BOJ to consider feasible measures to alleviate negative side effects, as it likely admits the economy needs a more prolonged period of monetary easing.” “Although very unlikely, in our view, the Bank could consider changing its 10yr yield target as necessary to ease side effects. Other policy measures outside the monetary policy toolkit to boost JGB market volatility and trading volumes may also be considered.”

Eric Schweitzer, President of Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Commerce told German television on Friday, the tariffs imposed by the US on imported cars wou

Eric Schweitzer, President of Germany’s DIHK Chambers of Commerce told German television on Friday, the tariffs imposed by the US on imported cars would reduce around Euro 6 billion (USD 6.99 billion) German economic output for this year, as cited by Reuters. Schweitzer noted that he took Trump’s threats “very seriously” and added such tariffs would be “against international law”, adding that such levies would not only result in job losses in Germany and Europe but would also hit jobs and investment in the US.

   •  Bulls struggle to build on/sustain above the parity mark.    •  Subdued USD demand does little to lend any support.    •  Cautious mood furthe

   •  Bulls struggle to build on/sustain above the parity mark.
   •  Subdued USD demand does little to lend any support.
   •  Cautious mood further collaborates towards capping gains.
The USD/CHF pair struggled for a firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session. After yesterday's good two-way moves, led by the US President Donald Trump's comments on the Fed's monetary tightening, the pair was seen consolidating in a range within a familiar trading range held over the past one week or so.  Despite last bullish breakout, the pair faced difficulty in building on/sustaining its strength beyond the parity mark, with a combination of negative factors further collaborating towards keeping a lid on any meaningful up-move on the last trading day of the week.  The US Dollar bulls remained on the back-foot through the early European session, which coupled with a weaker tone around European equity markets underpinned the Swiss Franc's safe-haven demand and was seen weighing on the major. In absence of any major market-moving economic data, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break through the near-term trading range before positioning for the pair's next leg of directional move.Technical levels to watchThe 0.9960 level is likely to protect the immediate downside and is followed by support marked by weekly lows, around the 0.9925 region, below which the pair could fall to test the 0.9900 handle. On the flip side, any meaningful up-move beyond the parity mark is likely to confront resistance near the 1.0025 area, which if cleared might lift the pair back towards a one-year high level of 1.0068.
 

In light of the recent sharp pullback in spot, the 0.7310 area is now exposed, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

In light of the recent sharp pullback in spot, the 0.7310 area is now exposed, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesAUD/USD has sold off aggressively and the .7310/15 recent lows are exposed. The intraday Elliott wave count is negative and we would allow for a retest of the .7315/10 recent lows. Below .7315/10 the market is capable of a slide to the 2001-2018 uptrend line at .7176”. “Above the 55 day ma at .7480 would allow for a recovery to the downtrend at .7550”. “Above the downtrend would see a challenge of the .7676 June high and the .7676 200 day ma”.

The Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (ANSA), the leading wire service in Italy, is out with the latest comments from the Italian Deputy PM Luigi Di

The Agenzia Nazionale Stampa Associata (ANSA), the leading wire service in Italy, is out with the latest comments from the Italian Deputy PM Luigi Di Maio, as he denies any clash with the Finance Minister Tria. Di Maio added that he never asked for Tria to resign from his position. Earlier today, it was reported that Tria was being challenged by Salvini and Di Maio over nominations for the leadership of a state lender.

   •  Oil prices remain supported by Saudi Arabia's comments not to flood markets.    •  Subdued USD demand provides an additional boost, albeit up-m

   •  Oil prices remain supported by Saudi Arabia's comments not to flood markets.
   •  Subdued USD demand provides an additional boost, albeit up-move remains capped. 
WTI crude oil prices built on overnight recovery move from near one-month lows and edged higher through the early European session on Friday. The commodity has fallen this month in wake of escalating US-China trade tensions and mounting concerns about renewed oversupply. However, comments by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry, pledging not to flood world markets with oil, turned the momentum around on Thursday and helped the commodity to rebound sharply from an intraday low level of $66.62.  Saudi Arabia's OPEC Governor Adeeb Al-Aama said in a statement that the Kingdom expects crude exports to fall by roughly 100,000 barrels a day in August and there will be a substantial stockpile decline due to robust demand in the second half of this year. Adding to this, a broad-based US Dollar sell-off, triggered by the US President Donald Trump's comments that a stronger currency puts the US at a disadvantage, provided an additional boost to dollar-denominated commodities, including oil.  The positive momentum, however, lost some steam ahead of the $69.00/barrel mark, with easing USD bearish pressure now seemed to keep a lid on any further up-move. Moving ahead, traders now look forward to the Baker Hughes rig-count report for some fresh impetus on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is pegged near $68.78 (overnight swing high) and is followed by $69.06, above which the commodity is likely to aim back towards reclaiming the $70.00 psychological round figure mark. On the flip side, weakness back below the $68.00 handle now seems to find support near the $67.80-60 region, which if broken might turn the commodity vulnerable to slide back towards $67.00 round figure mark.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading on the defensive at the end of the week although it manages well to keep business abo

The index is giving away some ground although keeps the 95.00 handle.US 10-year yields sidelined below the 2.86% area so far.US President Trump said on Thursday he prefers a weaker USD.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading on the defensive at the end of the week although it manages well to keep business above the critical 95.00 milestone.US Dollar off 2018 highsAfter three consecutive daily advances, the index is now struggling for direction although it still trades above the key handle at 95.00 the figure. The greenback retreated from tops beyond 95.60 on Thursday after President Trump said he prefers a weaker currency, adding that he remains worried about the current tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve and its probable impact on the economy and the country’s competitiveness. Despite the ongoing soft note, the outlook for the buck stays constructive, particularly after the positive momentum gathered further traction in response to the bullish ‘outside day’ seen earlier in the week. Looking ahead and absent data releases/events in the US calendar, the index should keep looking to headlines from the White House as well as developments from the current US-China trade war and the persistent sell off in the Chinese Yuan.US Dollar relevant levelsAs of writing the index is down 0.5% at 95.15 and a breach of 94.79 (10-day sma) would target 94.72 (21-day sma) en route to 94.51 (short term support line). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 95.65 (2018 high Jul.19) followed by 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 96.51 (monthly high Jul.5 2017).

The Times carried a story on Friday, citing that the Britons will from next week start receiving weekly information bulletins from the UK government a

The Times carried a story on Friday, citing that the Britons will from next week start receiving weekly information bulletins from the UK government about how to ensure they’re ready for a disorderly Brexit, Reuters reports. The newspaper added that the information will be distributed as “bundles” to consumers and companies as the UK prepares for the exit from the European Union (EU) on March 29, 2019. Further, the small businesses will be given information about how to make customs declarations while British holidaymakers will be told to buy health insurance in case current reciprocal deals end, the newspaper noted.  

EUR/USD stalled its latest leg lower near 1.1630 region, now trying hard to extend the bounce above the midpoint of the 1.16 handle. EUR/USD: 10-DMA

Volatile within 50-pips range, as bulls lack momentum to take-out 1.680 barrier.Keeps the rebound intact, despite downbeat Eurozone current account data.EUR/USD stalled its latest leg lower near 1.1630 region, now trying hard to extend the bounce above the midpoint of the 1.16 handle.EUR/USD: 10-DMA – a tough nut to crackThe spot witnessed good two-way trading so far this Friday, but remained confined within a 50-pips trading range, as resurfacing worries over the Italian political climate keeps a lid on the upside while the losses remain capped amid broad-based US dollar weakness following Trump’s negative comments on the US interest rates hike outlook. The Italian political risks returned to markets amid escalating tensions within the coalition government. Meanwhile, comments from the Italian Head of the budget committee at the Lower House Claudio Borghi also continues to weigh down on the common currency. Also, downbeat Eurozone current account data could keep the recovery attempts short-lived, as markets continue to track the broader market sentiment amid a lack of significant fundamental drivers.EUR/USD Technical LevelsSlobodan Drvenica at Windsor Brokers noted, “fresh bullish momentum supports today’s action, together with bullish divergence on daily chart slow stochastic, which could keep the downside protected for the time being. Recovery needs extension above falling 10SMA (1.1681) to sideline downside risk and open way towards key near-term barrier, provided by falling 55SMA (1.1710). Bearish scenario requires close below Fibo 61.8% (1.1616) to weaken near-term structure for a retest of Thursday’s spike low at 1.1574, break of which would signal a continuation of bear-phase from 1.1790 towards key support at 1.1508 (1.1508). Res: 1.1681; 1.1710; 1.1744; 1.1790. Sup: 1.1616; 1.1574; 1.1527; 1.1508.”

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above forecasts (£3.5B) in June: Actual (£4.53B)

   •  The pair continued with its struggled to breakthrough 1.3280 resistance zone, marking 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level of the 1.3064-1.3234 up-mo

   •  The pair continued with its struggled to breakthrough 1.3280 resistance zone, marking 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level of the 1.3064-1.3234 up-move and subsequent retracement.   •  Meanwhile, short-term technical indicators still hold in positive territory and hence, dip-buying interest might continue to keep a floor on any meaningful retracement from three-week tops.    •  However, it would be prudent to wait for a follow-through momentum beyond 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level before positioning for any further up-move, even beyond the 1.3300 handle. USD/CAD 1-hourly chartSpot rate: 1.3255
Daily High: 1.3290
Daily Low: 1.3246
Trend: BullishResistance
R1: 1.3300 (round figure mark) 
R2: 1.3355 (100% Fibo. expansion level)
R3: 1.3386 (1-year top set on June 27)Support
S1: 1.3226 (50-period SMA H1)
S2: 1.3190 (S1 daily pivot-point)
S3: 1.3160 (overnight swing low)
 

Dollar outperformance continued this week, with particular attention on a further move higher in USD/CNH, notes the research team at Nomura. Key Quot

Dollar outperformance continued this week, with particular attention on a further move higher in USD/CNH, notes the research team at Nomura.Key Quotes“With Chinese authorities seemingly allowing for more market determination/flexibility in setting the RMB exchange rate against a backdrop of worsening US-led trade protectionism, a further weakening of local macro conditions and an expansionary domestic monetary policy, our Asia FX strategy team believes that risks of near-term RMB depreciation are building and added to existing long USD/CNH positions.”

According to analysts at Rabobank, this month’s ECB meeting probably won’t bring substantial policy changes, but the Council still has some details to

According to analysts at Rabobank, this month’s ECB meeting probably won’t bring substantial policy changes, but the Council still has some details to work out, including the definition of ‘through’ and the reinvestment policy.Key Quotes“Although we probably won’t see actual changes to the guidance, a discussion of ‘through’ could result in a more coordinated choice of words by individual members.” “Preparatory discussion on principal reinvestments may start, but we do not expect further details before September.” “Meanwhile, underlying economic trends are encouraging, despite lingering risks. With other policy tools available too, we think the threshold for a U-turn in the plans for the APP is high.”

According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance trade statistics, nominal exports in June 2018 were up 6.7% y-y, below the consensus (Bloomberg survey median

According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance trade statistics, nominal exports in June 2018 were up 6.7% y-y, below the consensus (Bloomberg survey median) forecast for a rise of 7.0%, and nominal imports were up 2.5%, below the consensus forecast for a rise of 5.3%, notes the research team at Nomura.Key Quotes“The trade surplus came to ¥721.4bn, above the market consensus forecast of ¥531.2bn, mainly due to the weakness of imports.” “Using the BOJ’s export price index, we calculate that real exports in June 2018 were down 0.4% m-m. While this marks a second straight month of decline, real exports rose 5.4% m-m in April and rose 1.0% q-q for the Apr-Jun quarter overall, meaning that real export growth has recovered somewhat from the 0.3% q-q growth recorded in Jan-Mar.”

The Chinese Yuan is seen grinding lower in the near term, according to Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank. Key Quotes “Chinese assets are in

The Chinese Yuan is seen grinding lower in the near term, according to Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“Chinese assets are in focus as the CNY continues to weaken. USD/CNY moved above 6.80 overnight for the first time in more than a year after the People’s Bank of China weakened the USD/CNY fixing by 0.9% to 6.7671. This was the largest daily weakening of the CNY fixing in two years”. “USD/CNH has increased to 6.8133 and that CNH is now trading quite a bit weaker than CNY is a clear sign of depreciation pressure. With exports under pressure, China is probably happy with a weaker currency and there is no sign yet of a strong attempt to stop the depreciation, as offshore money-market rates are not pushed markedly higher to ‘defend the currency’. “We continue to see downside pressure on the CNY, as there are no signs of a thawing in the trade war (no negotiations) and we expect to see more monetary policy easing to support the economy going into the trade war with the US”.

European Monetary Union Current Account n.s.a up to €27.3B in May from previous €26.2B

European Monetary Union Current Account s.a below forecasts (€27.2B) in May: Actual (€4.6B)

   •  Investors looked past Trump’s overnight comments.     •  A modest USD uptick prompts some fresh selling.    •  Brexit concerns keep GBP bulls

   •  Investors looked past Trump’s overnight comments. 
   •  A modest USD uptick prompts some fresh selling.
   •  Brexit concerns keep GBP bulls on the defensive.
After an initial uptick to 1.3037, the GBP/USD pair met with some fresh supply and has now turned lower for the fourth consecutive session. The pair struggled to build on overnight goodish rebound from 10-month lows and has now moved back on the verge of breaking back below the key 1.3000 psychological mark, albeit the downtick lacked any obvious fundament catalyst.  With investors looking past the US President Donald Trump's overnight comments on the Fed's policy tightening, the US Dollar caught some bids and inched back to the key 95.00 psychological mark and was eventually exerting some fresh downward pressure.  Meanwhile, Irish finance minister Pascal Donohoe's comments on Brexit, saying that Ireland won't agree to undermine the single market and a backstop is necessary, could also be one of the factors denting sentiment surrounding the British Pound.  It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any fresh buying interest or resumes with its depreciating move amid diminishing prospects for an imminent August BoE rate hike action, especially after the recent softer UK inflation figures and yesterday's disappointing monthly retail sales figures.Technical levels to watchA fresh wave of selling below the 1.30 handle has the potential to drag the pair back towards overnight swing low level of 1.2957 en-route 1.2930 support and the 1.2900 handle. On the upside, momentum back above 1.3030 level is likely to confront resistance near mid-1.3000s, which if cleared might establish a near-term bullish bias and trigger a short-covering rally back towards reclaiming the 1.3100 handle.
 

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, Cable’s outlook stays offered while below 1.3363. Key Quotes “GBP/USD has

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, Cable’s outlook stays offered while below 1.3363.Key QuotesGBP/USD has eroded psychological support at 1.3000. We note that the daily RSI has not yet confirmed the new low and directly below here lies Fibonacci support at 1.2918 (50% retracement of the move up from 2016) and it is possible that we will see some profit taking here. Below 1.2918 would be treated as the break down point to 1.2580, the 61.8% retracement from 2016”. “The market stays offered below 1.3363, 9 th July 2018 high. Initial resistance is the 20 day ma at 1.3180 and the 1.3308 55 day ma”. “Above 1.3363, the 9 th July high would imply a deeper corrective phase to the 1.3470/1.3500 area and there is scope for the 1.3588 200 day ma (although this is less favoured)”.

EUR/USD hourly chart               Daily high: 1.1674 Daily low: 1.1626 Support Levels S1: 1.1585 S2: 1.1528 S3: 1.1481 Resistance Lev

The pair made a bullish attempt to the 1.1675/80 region on Thursday boosted by comments by US President Trump, although it lacked of follow through and continues to grind lower.The area of 1.1670/83, where sit the 21-day SMA, the 10-day SMA and the 200-hour SMA, acted as strong resistance ahead of the more relevant 1.1720/50 band. Here is located the December 2017 low, a Fibo retracement of the April-May drop and the base of the daily cloud.The pair’s stance remains bearish following Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ with the immediate target at the 1.1500 neighbourhood.The daily RSI reads 45, while a low ADX (today at 18) suggests the current trend is weak.EUR/USD hourly chart              Daily high: 1.1674 Daily low: 1.1626Support LevelsS1: 1.1585 S2: 1.1528 S3: 1.1481Resistance LevelsR1: 1.1689 R2: 1.1736 R3: 1.1793

According to analysts at Rabobank, yesterday CNH (offshore) fell like a stone and at one point it traded past 6.80 and then today the PBOC’s CNY fixin

According to analysts at Rabobank, yesterday CNH (offshore) fell like a stone and at one point it traded past 6.80 and then today the PBOC’s CNY fixing was set at the lowest since 2016 at 6.7671 – around 600pips, or 1%, lower than the day before.Key Quotes“As a result, at time of writing CNH had tested past 6.8350 and was trading at 6.8183. That is through the line in the sand I had thought the PBOC would set before they seemed to set 6.70. Now perhaps we don’t have any lines or any sand at all.” “The timing of when we move through the psychological 7 level is all political. And politics is pretty volatile right now.”

   •  Trump’s overnight comments helped ease the prevalent bearish pressure.    •  The recovery lacked any strong conviction amid fading safe-haven d

   •  Trump’s overnight comments helped ease the prevalent bearish pressure.
   •  The recovery lacked any strong conviction amid fading safe-haven demand.
Gold reversed an early dip to $1215 area, closer to one-year lows set overnight, and is currently placed at the top end of Friday's Asian session trading range.  The US President Donald Trump's overnight comments, expressing displeasure about the Fed's monetary tightening, triggered a broad-based US Dollar sell-off and helped ease bearish pressure surrounding the dollar-denominated commodity. This coupled with a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields extended some additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal.  Despite a combination of supporting factors, the precious metal failed to capitalize on the recovery momentum and was being capped by the prevalent risk-on mood. A positive trading sentiment around Asian equity markets weighed on the precious metal's safe-haven appeal and exerted some fresh downward pressure during early trading hours on Friday. Meanwhile, traders held back from placing any fresh bearish bets amid highly near-term oversold conditions, which now seems to have prompted some short-covering amid a subdued opening across European bourses and weaker USD price-action. Technical levels to watchAny meaningful up-move might continue to confront fresh supply near the $1229-30 region, above which the commodity could recover further towards a previous support, now turned resistance, near the $1237-38 zone.  On the flip side, $1215 level, closely followed by $1212-11 area, now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken could accelerate the fall towards $1204 level en-route the $1200 handle.
 

Irish finance minister Pascal Donohoe is on the wires now, speaking about the Brexit issue in an interview with RTE radio. Key Headlines: Brexit bac

Irish finance minister Pascal Donohoe is on the wires now, speaking about the Brexit issue in an interview with RTE radio.Key Headlines:Brexit backstop must be retained. Can be replaced by a new deal so long as it was agreed and legally operable. Some elements of the white paper is useful. Ireland won't agree to undermining the single market. Believes UK PM May's commitment to an open border in Northern Ireland is "genuine and sincere".

The Corriere della Sera, an Italian daily newspaper, reports comments from Italy's Head of the budget committee at the Lower House Claudio Borghi, as

The Corriere della Sera, an Italian daily newspaper, reports comments from Italy's Head of the budget committee at the Lower House Claudio Borghi, as he says, “Italy will come out of the Euro sooner or later, I am very convinced.” No further details have been mentioned on the same.

Heading into the second half of 2018, the Australian consumer mood has caught another updraft, according to analysts at Westpac. Key Quotes “The lat

Heading into the second half of 2018, the Australian consumer mood has caught another updraft, according to analysts at Westpac.Key Quotes“The latest Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index shows a sustained lift, tax cuts announced in the May Budget and implemented in June-July providing a clear boost to expectations. At 106.1, the Index has moved from ‘faintly’ to ‘firmly’ optimistic territory.” “Tax developments aside, the more balanced growth profile across states has also been an underlying positive over the last year. Whereas during the mining downturn there was a regular 10pt spread between sentiment in mining and non-mining states, that wedge has narrowed to less than 5pts in 2018.” “Other aspects of the survey detail are less promising. Responses continue to point to pressures on family finances, with spending-related measures showing a more muted lift in recent months as well. Last year’s steadily improving sentiment around the labour market also looks to have lost its way and risk aversion remains elevated with no signs that it will relax any time soon.” “Certainly consumers’ increasingly downbeat assessments of prospects for the housing market suggest they will continue to take a ‘safety first’ approach to financial decisions.” “Indeed the house price correction in Sydney and Melbourne now looms as a significant downside risk to the consumer outlook.” “The bottom line is that its unclear how much this particular factor may weigh on the consumer, although risks are clearly to the downside. If they materialise, the current optimism could quickly fade, particularly if developments in the wider economy do not match the recent lift in expectations.”    

After the PBoC weakened the Yuan’s reference rate by the most in two years this morning, the CNY passed 6.800 in the early going, notes the research t

After the PBoC weakened the Yuan’s reference rate by the most in two years this morning, the CNY passed 6.800 in the early going, notes the research team at Deutsche Bank.Key Quotes“Having weakened by an average of 0.88% in each of the five weeks prior to this. With the PBoC refraining from intervening, authorities in China turning towards further monetary loosening, the PBoC announcing this morning that China’s leverage ratio has stabilised and China officials hitting back at the US for accusing China of stalling trade talks - suggesting then that there is no evidence of de-escalation on the trade war front – one has to wonder when the broader market will start to react even more. DB’s George Saravelos noted yesterday that it might be that the CNY at 7.0 is a level assets can no longer ignore.”“Despite there being very different drivers, the recent CNY move is reminiscent of the 2015 devaluation although the actual magnitude of the current move is larger. To put some numbers around all this, if we use the start date of the recent CNY slide as the 14th of June, then the following are some of the moves for a select group of assets. First and foremost the CNY and CNH have weakened -6.14% and -6.32%, respectively, (the magnitude of the CNY devaluation in 2015 was closer to 3%, although in fairness it did continue to weaken for all of 2016).”

AUD/USD staged a V-shaped recovery from two-week lows of 0.7318 and now consolidates near the 0.7370 region, as the bulls await a fresh impetus for th

Bulls fighting back control amid resurgent US dollar supply, Yuan demand.Will the bounce sustain in a data-empty session ahead? AUD/USD staged a V-shaped recovery from two-week lows of 0.7318 and now consolidates near the 0.7370 region, as the bulls await a fresh impetus for the next push higher. The Aussie is closely tracking the USD/CNY price-action, having initially dropped in tandem with the Yuan, as the Chinese currency hit fresh yearly lows at 6.8117 versus the US dollar amid mounting US-China trade war fears. However, the spot quickly reversed to 0.7384 highs after the Yuan recovered losses and added to the selling pressure on the US dollar, as the greenback resumed its declines fuelled by Trump’s negative remarks on the US interest rates hike outlook. Meanwhile, the rebound in copper prices also aided the renewed upswing in the resource-linked AUD. Looking ahead, the major will remain at the mercy of the market sentiment and US dollar moves, as the US macro calendar remains data-empty.  AUD/USD Technical LevelsFXStreet’s Analyst Omkar Godbole offers key technical levels for trading the Aussie in the day ahead. “Resistance: 0.7401 (10-day MA), 0.7441 (July 19 high). Support: 0.7310 (July 2 low), 0.7160 (Dec 2016 low), 0.7145 (May 2016 low).”

Hungary Gross Wages (YoY) fell from previous 12.6% to 10.9% in May

   •  Trump’s USD-bearish comments prompted some aggressive selling on Thursday.    •  The USD bulls remained on the defensive and kept exerting some

   •  Trump’s USD-bearish comments prompted some aggressive selling on Thursday.
   •  The USD bulls remained on the defensive and kept exerting some pressure.
   •  Risk-on mood weighed on JPY’s safe-haven appeal and helped limit deeper losses.
The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild negative bias on Friday, albeit has managed to hold above one-week lows touched in the previous session. The US President Donald Trump's overnight comments triggered a broad-based US Dollar sell-0ff and prompted some aggressive long unwinding trade around the major. Trump expressed displeasure about the Fed's monetary tightening and also raised concerns about the recent USD strength.  The pair witnessed a sharp intraday retracement of over 100-pips from a six-month high level of 113.18 but found some support near the 112.00 handle and finally managed to end the day near mid-112.00s.  The greenback remained on the back-foot through the Asian session on Friday and did little to assist the pair to build on overnight rebound. However, the prevalent risk-on mood, as depicted by positive trading sentiment around equity markets weighed on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven appeal and helped limit further downside.  Meanwhile, the market had a rather muted reaction to Japanese economic data, showing that the national core CPI ticked higher to 0.8% in June and all industry activity index for May came in slightly better than expected at 0.1%. In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the US, the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment will play an important role in influencing the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week. Technical outlookOmkar Godbole, Analyst and Editor at FXStreet explains: “USD/JPY is seen falling to ascending trendline support, currently located at 111.07, in the next few days. A close below the rising trendline would signal the rally from the March low of 104.63 has ended and could yield a deeper drop to levels below 110.00.”
 

Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the pair trading closer to the lower end of the current 1.15-1.21 range for the time being. Key Quot

Morten Helt, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the pair trading closer to the lower end of the current 1.15-1.21 range for the time being.Key Quotes“The USD sold off significantly and EUR/USD initially bounced to 1.1678 after US President Donald Trump criticised the Fed in an interview with CNBC by saying that he is ‘not thrilled’ with the Fed rate hikes. He also said he would not interfere with the Fed and we doubt the Fed will change its course due to the well-known Trump view”. “Yesterday’s sell-off in the USD seems a bit overdone in our view. We have argued that a trade war is more likely to be USD positive due to the less open US economy and we still expect EUR/USD to trade at the low end of 1.15-1.21 in coming months. Technically, the 100-day EUR/USD moving average has broken below the 200-day moving average, which is usually a bearish sign for the cross”.

The pair remains on the defensive and stays focused on the 1.1510/08 band, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quo

The pair remains on the defensive and stays focused on the 1.1510/08 band, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesEUR/USD continues to ease back from the 55 day ma at 1.1711. For now we will assume while below here and below last week’s high at 1.1790, a downside bias remains. The market remains on the defensive currently and attention stays on the 1.1510/08 recent lows and below here lies the 200 week ma at 1.1382”. “A recovery above 1.1790 will target 1.1855. Above 1.1855 we look for a deeper retracement to the 1.1930 55 week ma, with scope for the 1.1986 200 day ma, where we suspect that it will fail”.

In the FX market, the USD sold off significantly and EUR/USD initially bounced to 1.1678 after US President Donald Trump criticised the Fed in an inte

In the FX market, the USD sold off significantly and EUR/USD initially bounced to 1.1678 after US President Donald Trump criticised the Fed in an interview with CNBC by saying that he is 'not thrilled' with the Fed rate hikes, notes the research team at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“He also said he would not interfere with the Fed and we doubt the Fed will change its course due to the well-known Trump view. Yesterday's sell-off in the USD seems a bit overdone in our view.” “We have argued that a trade war is more likely to be USD positive due to the less open US economy and we still expect EUR/USD to trade at the low end of 1.15-1.21 in coming months. Technically, the 100-day EUR/USD moving average has broken below the 200-day moving average, which is usually a bearish sign for the cross.”

After hitting weekly lows at 1.1575 on Thursday, EUR/USD managed to grab some attention and retake the 1.1600 handle and above. EUR/USD looks to USD-

The pair gained ground lost following Trump’s comments.The greenback retreats from 2018 highs, keeps 95.00 so far.US President Trump said he prefers a weaker USD.After hitting weekly lows at 1.1575 on Thursday, EUR/USD managed to grab some attention and retake the 1.1600 handle and above.EUR/USD looks to USD-dynamicsThe pair alternates gains with losses ahead of the European opening at the end of the week, retreating from tops in the 1.1680 area and seeing some extra volatility following comments by President Trump. In fact, in an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Trump favoured a weaker greenback while he criticized the Fed’s tightening policy, showing concerns that higher rates could have a negative impact on the economy and hurt competitiveness. However, the current weakness around the buck could well be temporary as USD keeps a considerable carry advantage. Nothing worth mentioning in the calendar today, leaving the USD-dynamics as the main driver of the market sentiment ahead in the day.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 1.1655 facing the next hurdle at 1.1678 (high Jul.19) followed by 1.1718 (monthly low Dec.12 2017) and finally 1.1746 (high Jul.17). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.1575 (low Jul.19) would open the door to 1.1527 (low Jun.29) and then 1.1508 (2018 low May 30).

Analysts at TD Securities point out that S&P is scheduled to review Russia's BBB- (stable) sovereign rating and will be a key event for today’s sessio

Analysts at TD Securities point out that S&P is scheduled to review Russia's BBB- (stable) sovereign rating and will be a key event for today’s session.Key Quotes“Russia is rated Ba1 (positive) by Moody's and BBB- (positive) by Fitch. S&P upgraded Russia to BBB- from BB+ in February of this year, citing Russia's strong net external asset position, low government debt and the central bank’s monetary policy.” “We think it is unlikely that S&P will change the rating or less than six months after the upgrade.”

Chinese assets are in focus as the CNY continues to weaken and USD/CNY moved above 6.80 overnight for the first time in more than a year after the Peo

Chinese assets are in focus as the CNY continues to weaken and USD/CNY moved above 6.80 overnight for the first time in more than a year after the People's Bank of China weakened the USD/CNY fixing by 0.9% to 6.7671, points out the research team at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“This was the largest daily weakening of the CNY fixing in two years. USD/CNH has increased to 6.8133 and that CNH is now trading quite a bit weaker than CNY is a clear sign of depreciation pressure.” “With exports under pressure, China is probably happy with a weaker currency and there is no sign yet of a strong attempt to stop the depreciation, as offshore money-market rates are not pushed markedly higher to 'defend the currency'.” “We continue to see downside pressure on the CNY, as there are no signs of a thawing in the trade war (no negotiations) and we expect to see more monetary policy easing to support the economy going into the trade war with the US.”  

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that investors will be focusing on the EU response to the Brexit white paper. Key Quotes “With cable looking comfo

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that investors will be focusing on the EU response to the Brexit white paper.Key Quotes“With cable looking comfortable in a new trading range below 1.3050, we see additional upside risks to EURGBP if the EU's tone turns increasingly dismissive or combative toward the UK. This would leave resistance at 0.8968 vulnerable despite expectations for an August BoE rate hike.” “The EU General Affairs Council meets to assess the UK's Brexit white paper. Barnier will discuss his conclusion of the Brexit white paper with the 27 EU ministers and make recommendations to the council, and will give a press conference to summarise their conclusions.” “Importantly, while he's likely to address the UK's Chequers agreement, the document is largely focused on the future trading arrangement, which is not a priority to the EU right now (the two sides have until late-2020 to negotiate this). Barnier's focus is therefore likely to be on any implications of the Chequers agreement for the Irish border, as that is most relevant for the withdrawal and transition agreements that must be signed this year. For data, government finances are out for the month of June.”

According to the latest Reuters poll of sixteen economists, Tokyo’s core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as fuel, are seen subdued in t

According to the latest Reuters poll of sixteen economists, Tokyo’s core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as fuel, are seen subdued in the month of July. Tokyo’s core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was expected to rise 0.7 percent in July from a year ago, the same rate as seen in June, the poll showed. The internal affairs ministry will publish the core CPI for Tokyo on July 26 at 2350 GMT. Earlier today, Japan’s national core consumer prices (CPI) rose by an annual 0.8 percent in June, up slightly from 0.7 percent in May.

The GBP/USD is heading into the London market session for Friday pushing to the upside, testing near 1.3030 after a week of steady declines. Key econ

Sterling looking for a foothold after a week of steady declines.A big week of economic data for the UK turned into a fright-fest for Pound bulls.The GBP/USD is heading into the London market session for Friday pushing to the upside, testing near 1.3030 after a week of steady declines. Key economic data for the Uk this week has been a disappointing showing, consistently missing expectations and helping to drive the Sterling into new yearly lows near 1.2950, though the early Friday trading window is seeing a brief respite for weary bulls. Brexit, the other shoe that continues to drop on the GBP/USD on a continual basis, has been pushed to the back burner temporarily amidst this week's lackluster showing for the GBP, but with the UK parliament continuing to squabble with staunch Brexiteers digging in their heels and decrying any move that may weaken their demands for absolute UK sovereignty, even at the cost of British enterprises, concerns over the UK's thus-far botched attempts to make a clean exit from the European Union will continue to weigh on the Queen's currency moving forward. Friday is a limited showing for the Sterling on the economic calendar, a welcome relief for tired Pound traders. Public Sector Net Borrowing, a second-tier indicator, is due at 08:30 GMT, with markets expecting a slight move higher from the previous £3.356 billion to £3.6 billion.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisThe intraday chart on the GBP/USD shows the pair in the middle of a bull flag breakout, a strong indicator of a potential move higher, signalling that the recovery from Thursday's low of 1.2957 could pick up speed, with bulls targeting the June 28th low of 1.3050.GBP/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  1.3023 Relative change:  0.07% High:  1.3035 Low:  1.2994     Trend:  Intraday bullish     Support 1:  1.3000 (major psychological level) Support 2:  1.2970 (H1 Bollinger Band support) Support 3:  1.2957 (previous day low)     Resistance 1:  1.3050 (June 28th swing low) Resistance 2:  1.3100 (psychological hurdle) Resistance 3:  1.3163 (10-day Moving Average)  

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 3%, above forecasts (2.9%) in June

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in June

Analysts at Citigroup are out with their take on the global equity markets, in light of the ongoing trade war concerns. Key Highlights: Cuts emergin

Analysts at Citigroup are out with their take on the global equity markets, in light of the ongoing trade war concerns.Key Highlights:Cuts emerging markets equities from overweight to neutral. The global bull market is not yet finished, but progress is likely to be more difficult.

Analysts at TD Securities note that today's CNY fix was the biggest since 27 June 16 as the fixing was lower than most models, largely reflective of t

Analysts at TD Securities note that today's CNY fix was the biggest since 27 June 16 as the fixing was lower than most models, largely reflective of the USD move but not entirely.Key Quotes“On a trade weighted basis (CFETS index) CNY is now at its weakest since August 20017. There is no doubt that China is letting the CNY weaken for now. As we noted in our latest CNY piece overnight the CNY NEER is being used as a shock absorber and main adjustment variable for monetary conditions to buffer the economy.” “Also CNY has dropped 8% since mid April, a nice counterbalance to 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. Goes without saying that the rest of Asia especially KRW, TWD, etc will get dragged lower. I still think China will not allow this to get out of hand. As soon as they get a whiff of domestic panic ie increased capital outflows they will step in, but clearly they're not that concerned yet.”

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that in the US, Chair Powell appeared before the US Congress in his semi-annual testimony and the co

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that in the US, Chair Powell appeared before the US Congress in his semi-annual testimony and the core view on the economy was unchanged, a ‘just right’ combination of robust confidence in economic momentum and little concern over inflation.Key Quotes“The consequence for policy is that “the FOMC believes that – for now – the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate”. The inclusion of “for now” emphasises clearly that the outlook is not entirely benign.” “Risks remain. On the financial front, it is best to hold that risks will be reacted to only as they manifest. Financial conditions and stability are seen as “normal” despite some assets being priced at elevated levels. Comments on the yield curve were also non-threatening.” “The risks to watch more closely then are those tied to the real economy, particularly current trade tensions. Most notable from the Q&A was the comment from Chair Powell that the FOMC had evidence of capital expenditure plans being “put on ice”. If we are correct in anticipating decelerating support for growth from the consumer, then to sustain GDP growth near 3.0% past Q2, business investment must remain strong.” “The building evidence however is that this open-ended uncertainty around trade may preclude it. Government spending would then be left as the prime contributor to momentum from late-2018, setting the US economy up for a very sharp growth slowdown in 2019 – even absent a material shock to household incomes and confidence.”

Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak was on the wires last minutes, via TASS, commenting on the OPEC’s oil output policy. Key Points: Can return

Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak was on the wires last minutes, via TASS, commenting on the OPEC’s oil output policy.Key Points:Can return to oil output cuts after 2018 if needed. New OPEC-Russia organization may start on Nov 1, 2019.

Asian equities slid back after several days of tentative gains, driven into the red by a steeply-discounted Yuan which fell into one-year lows, and tr

Asia session equities are again on the retreat as China's Yuan slide in Friday's early trading sends traders scurrying for cover.Trade war tensions remain just beneath the surface, and promise to derail buyers' plans at a moment's notice.Asian equities slid back after several days of tentative gains, driven into the red by a steeply-discounted Yuan which fell into one-year lows, and traders are fearing another flare-up of the US-China trade dispute as the People's Bank of China (PBOC) tests the limits of what the US will allow before once again deeming China a currency manipulator. As explained by Reuters :  “There are several channels through which the yuan’s weakening is hitting Asian stocks. First, a weaker yuan challenges the competitiveness of other Asian economies,” said Shusuke Yamada, currency and equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo. “The weaker currency also causes fears of capital leaving China and disrupting their capital markets, which could have knock-on effects on Asia. Lastly, a weaker yuan deepens trade war concerns.”  - Reuters Asian stock markets have been on-edge amidst the recent trade-war flare up, and tensions are expected to remain steady in the run-up to the EU's trade delegation to Washington next week, who are preparing a list of retaliatory tariffs if the US goes ahead with applying far-reaching tariffs on all automobile imports. Japan's leading Nikkei 225 index is down -0.85%, with Tokyo's Topix index also in the red for -0.70% for Friday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Shanghai's CSI 300 index are off by -0.45% and -0.25% respectively, with the MSCI broad Asia-Pacific index down -0.35% to cap off the week.Nikkei 225 levels to watchJapan's leading equity index is sharply off the day's highs at 22,878.00, currently trading near 22,650.00 after reaching a Friday low of 22,540.00. Hopeful bulls will be looking to make a determined push back over Thursday's high of 22,930.00 in the coming week, while short-sellers will be looking to extend the current bearish slide beyond the week's lows to test last week's swing high of 22,325.00.

FX option expiries for July 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1550 1.1bn 1.1600 699m 1.1700

FX option expiries for July 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1550 1.1bn 1.1600 699m 1.1700 802m 1.1750 510m 1.1800 674m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3000 440m 1.3100 279m 1.3185 308m USD/JPY: USD amounts 112.50 664m 113.00 445m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7400 1.3bn

15-minute chart Spot Rate: 1.3030 Daily High: 1.3030 Daily Low: 1.2995 Trend: Intraday bullish Resistance R1: 1.3050 (June 28 low) R2: 1.31 (

The GBP/USD 15-minute chart shows a bull flag breakout, a bullish continuation pattern, which indicates the recovery from the previous day's low of 1.2957 is set to gather pace.  The pair could re-test June 28 low of 1.3050.15-minute chartSpot Rate: 1.3030 Daily High: 1.3030 Daily Low: 1.2995 Trend: Intraday bullishResistanceR1: 1.3050 (June 28 low) R2: 1.31 (psychological hurdle) R3: 1.3163 (10-day moving average)SupportS1: 1.30 (Psychological support + 20-hour MA) S2: 1.2970 (hourly Bollinger Bands support) S3: 1.2957 (previous day's low)

Analysts at TD Securities note that the New Zealand’s migration for June cooled further to 4840 from 5080 (and the lofty peaks of 6000+ during 2015-20

Analysts at TD Securities note that the New Zealand’s migration for June cooled further to 4840 from 5080 (and the lofty peaks of 6000+ during 2015-2017).Key Quotes“From the annual peak of nearly 73k (mid-2017 just as the election campaign kicked off) it has eased to under 65k without any legislation needed to be passed. Recall Winston Peters (NZF) campaigned on a slash to +10k pa, while the government eventually settled on a target closer to 30-40k.”

Trade war fears intensified in Asia this Friday, which eventually turned into a currency-war, with the Yuan accelerating its declines versus its Ameri

Trade war fears intensified in Asia this Friday, which eventually turned into a currency-war, with the Yuan accelerating its declines versus its American peer. USD/CNY jumped to fresh one-year highs at 6.8117, before retreating below the 6.8 handle amid reports of intervention. The Indian Rupee headed towards the record low of 69.24/ US dollar while the Antipodeans, proxies for the Chinese economy, also felt the heat of the Yuan sell-off. However, the Antipodeans staged a solid comeback towards Asia closing, as the US dollar stalled its pullback from the Trump-led selloff. Meanwhile, the Yen advanced further versus the greenback and looks to test the 112 level, as markets cheer uptick in the Japanese national core CPI figures while negative Asian equities also spurred the demand for the safe-haven currency. Gold prices on Comex attempted a bounce above $ 1220 levels while both crude benchmarks stabilized, but remained on track for their third weekly loss.Main topics in AsiaGerman Finance Ministry sees threats to economic growth on the rise Germany's Finance Ministry has released their July monthly report, and the ministerial group has highlighted that growing threats from protectionism and Brexit are set to hamper growth looking forward. EU, Mexico auto makers slam Trump's autos tariffs plan - Reuters According to Reuters, The Trump administration came under fire on Thursday from foreign automobile companies as the US considers its options on imposing a hefty 25% tariff on foreign autos. PBOC devalues Yuan by most since June 2016 A weaker Yuan is China's answer to Trump's trade war.  USD/CNY hits fresh one-year high above 6.80 as trade war turns into currency war The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is increasingly favoring a weaker currency as it would help the economy absorb shocks from trade war with the US. Major state-owned Chinese banks intervened in Yuan market As the Chinese Yuan extends the sell-off versus its American counterpart, traders are reporting about the intervention by the state-owned banks. USD/INR Technical Analysis: Hourly chart favors a minor pullback USD/INR could be in for a minor pullback, having closed above 69.00 for the first time ever.Key Focus aheadHeading into Europe, we have a thin showing on the macroeconomic front on the final trading day of this week. In absence of the first-tier economic releases, the German PPI and Eurozone current account data will keep the EUR, GBP traders busy ahead of the UK public sector net borrowing data due at 0830 GMT. The NA session is likely to be eventful, with the inflation and retail sales reports slated for release from Canada. Meanwhile, the US docket remains data-empty and hence, the broader market sentiment amid ongoing trade war concerns will continue to drive the fx markets. Markets look forward to the Bakers Hughes US oil rigs count data due later at 1700 GMT for fresh direction on oil prices. EUR/USD: Indecisive market amid rising fears of currency wars No first tier data are scheduled for release in Europe and US, hence, the pair is at the mercy of the broader market sentiment.  GBP/USD cycling around 1.30 after Thursday's last-minute bounce does little to buck the trend This week has been a poor run for the GBP/USD, which is struggling to hang onto the 1.3000 major handle heading into the brunt of Friday's trading. Canadian double-feature Friday preview: Contradicting expectations lay the ground for a choppy reaction Canadian Inflation figures for June and Retail Sales for May are published simultaneously on Friday, July 20th, at 12:30 GMT. There are no parallel US publications, leaving the stage for these figures to move the USD/CAD. US dollar to weaken in ‘coming weeks’ – Morgan Stanley Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on the G10 currencies, centered on the Euro, US dollar, Yen and Yuan, in its latest client note released on Friday.  

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that China was front and centre this week as its GDP came in right on the market’s expectation of 6.

Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that China was front and centre this week as its GDP came in right on the market’s expectation of 6.7%yr.Key Quotes“More to the point, the detail was consistent with the intent of authorities: for improved consumer incomes and wealth to beget stronger consumption.” “In terms of assessing the sustainability of growth, two points are worth noting. First, that the contribution from consumption held up in Q2 (instead of slowing after lunar new year holidays as it typically does) indicates the gain in Q2 was outsized, likely aided by buoyant confidence. Amid tariff concerns, and given the employment pulse has softened, this does not seem sustainable. Second, what is likely to endure is entrenched weakness in investment.” “Clearly evident in the investment detail at June is the shock that has come from tighter credit standards and loan availability necessary to reset the system and push capital to the ‘industries of tomorrow’.” “We therefore remain comfortable calling for weaker growth in the second half, and a full year outcome below the 6.5%yr target of authorities – our best guess, 6.3%.” “One additional point on housing. In recent months, there has been a distinct acceleration in price gains across the nation. This is however unlikely to require a further tightening of standards as: (1) the price growth is skewed towards tier 2 and 3, where it is desired; and (2) construction activity is broad based. Housing is likely to therefore remain a source of strength for China’s economy in coming months, although the pace of growth will probably also ease.”

The USD/JPY is trading into 112.33, sticking close to yesterday's bottoms after a sharp detour from the regular bullish action, slipping to a low near

The US Dollar continues to soften against the Yen despite a recovery from Thursday's sharp declines on Trump's Dollar-bearish nagging.Economic calendar action is pretty much wrapped up for the week, leaving market sentiment to choose where the pair ends the week.The USD/JPY is trading into 112.33, sticking close to yesterday's bottoms after a sharp detour from the regular bullish action, slipping to a low near the 112.00 major level. The US Dollar slid on Thursday after US President Donald Trump talked down the American currency, lashing out at the US Federal Reserve over the pace and scale of the central bank's interest rate hikes, with Trump conveying that he desires a Greenback with a lower value. Markets sold off the USD on reaction, but managed to stage a late-day bounce as traders adapted to the POTUS' statements. Japan saw national inflation figures late on Thursday, which struggled to hit the mark on market forecasts, with y/y national CPI into June ticking lower into 0.7%, holding steady at the previous figure and missing the expected 0.8% showing, but markets remained steady, if on the soft side, through Friday's following Asian market session. Japan's All Industry Activity Index also came in at 0.1% early Friday, clearing the expected 0.0% but falling short of the previous period's 1.0%, and USD/JPY remains sluggish heading into the week's end.USD/JPY Levels to watchTechnical indicators for the Dollar-Yen pairing have turned sharply downside, but charts remain relatively bullish in comparison, and according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the pair settled around 112.40 after nearing the 112.00 level, with an increased downward potential, now that the pair is back below the 112.60 level. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators head lower within bearish territory with strong downward slopes, while the price remains far above bullish moving averages, which means that the longer term bullish trend is not yet at risk, although further downward corrective movements can't be disregarded." Support levels: 112.05 111.80 111.40 Resistance levels: 112.60 113.00 113.4

Hourly chart Spot Rate: 69.02 Daily High: 69.04 Daily Low: 68.86 Trend: minor correction likely Resistance R1: 69.18 (record high) R2: 70.00

USD/INR could be in for a minor pullback, having closed above 69.00 for the first time ever. The hourly chart shows bearish price RSI divergence. Acceptance below 69.00 would validate the preceding doji candle and would allow a minor drop to $68.70. Hourly chartSpot Rate: 69.02 Daily High: 69.04 Daily Low: 68.86 Trend: minor correction likelyResistanceR1: 69.18 (record high) R2: 70.00 (psychological hurdle)SupportS1: $68.86 (support on hourly chart) S2: $68.70 (50-hour moving average)  

New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration monthly inflows fell by 240 to 4,840 in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis), as arrivals dipped

New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration monthly inflows fell by 240 to 4,840 in June (on a seasonally adjusted basis), as arrivals dipped and departures lifted – both providing confirmation that the cycle is continuing to ease, notes the research team at ANZ.Key Quotes“The annual net inflow is now sitting just below 65,000, down from 66,200 in May and 10.2% below the peak of 72,400 in July last year.” “Permanent and long-term arrivals fell by 180 to 10,600 (sa), remaining below the 12-month average of around 10,850.”Monthly permanent and long-term departures rose 50 to 5,750 (sa), above their 12-month average of 5,300.”Short-term visitor arrivals fell 3.5% m/m (sa), but were up 5.1% y/y, with tourist numbers remaining elevated, particularly from China.” “We expect gradual easing in the migration cycle to continue, as departures continue to pick up (in part reflecting the natural cycling out of previous arrivals) and with arrivals growth continuing to moderate.”

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) above forecasts (0%) in May: Actual (0.1%)

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj remains unchanged at 23 in July

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume dipped from previous 3% to 1.9% in July

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the July Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, the first of the month, indicate sustained growth starting

Analysts at Nomura suggest that the July Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, the first of the month, indicate sustained growth starting out Q3 for the US economy, but a murkier outlook six months ahead.Key Quotes“Both general business condition indices in the respective surveys remained well within expansionary territory during July. The Empire State index ticked down to 22.6, above its six-month average of 19.0, while the Philly Fed index increased 5.8pp to 25.7.” “The details of both surveys were generally positive with elevated readings for new orders, indicating steady near-term momentum.” “Despite the positive evaluation of the current economic situation, the forward-looking indicators across both surveys remain below their levels from February 2018, before the US steel and aluminum tariffs were announced.” “Averaging across both surveys, the gap between the forward-looking expectations and the current conditions index has narrowed considerably, consistent with elevated business uncertainty.” “The narrowing spread between the forward-looking and current conditions indicators corresponds to a noticeable retreat in the capital expenditure expectations indices across both surveys.”

Hourly chart Spot Rate: 6.7906 Daily High: 6.8105 Daily Low: 6.77 Trend: Minor correction likely Resistance R1: 6.8080 (78.6% Fib retracement)

The USD/CNY pair rose above 6.8089 (78.6% Fib retracement of Dec 2016 - March 2018 drop) and looks overbought as per the 14-day relative strength index (RSI).The bearish divergence of the hourly chart RSI indicates scope for a minor pullback. Hourly chartSpot Rate: 6.7906 Daily High: 6.8105 Daily Low: 6.77 Trend: Minor correction likelyResistanceR1: 6.8080 (78.6% Fib retracement) R2: 6.9204 (March 2017 high) R3: 6.9633 (December 2016 high)SupportS1: 6.7831 (hourly chart support) S2: 6.7379 (50-hour moving average) S3: 6.7122 (100-hour moving average)

Currently, the EUR/USD is mildly bid around 0.7350, having created a doji candle on Thursday. The candlestick pattern indicates indecision in the mar

The EUR/USD creted a doji candle yesterday, signaling indecision in the market. Rising fears of currency wars could keep the EUR under pressure.Currently, the EUR/USD is mildly bid around 0.7350, having created a doji candle on Thursday. The candlestick pattern indicates indecision in the market place and the pair will likely adopt a bearish/bullis bias depending on today's close. The pair is seen resuming the journey towards 1.1852 (June 14 high) if it closes above the yesterday's doji candle high of 1.1852 (June 14 high).  On the other hand, a close below 1.1575 would add credence to Tuesday's bearish outside-day candle and would shift risk in favor of a drop below 1.15 (psychological support).  The Yuan devaluation and the rising fears of full-blown currency war between the US and China could trigger risk aversion in the equities and keep the common curency under pressure. Moreover, a retaliatory action by the US could also force the ECB and other central banks to adopt a dovish stance.  No first tier data are scheduled for release in Europe and US, hence, the pair is at the mercy of the broader market sentiment. EUR/USD Technical LevelsResistance: 1.1692 (50-day moving average), 1.1745 (July 17 high), 1.1852 (June 14 high). Support: 1.1575 (previous day's low), 1.1508 (June 21 low), 1.1450 (100-week moving average).    

This week has been a poor run for the GBP/USD, which is struggling to hang onto the 1.3000 major handle heading into the brunt of Friday's trading. T

The Sterling heads into Friday looking for a Hail Mary pick-up to cap off a week of steady declines.Brexit headlines have been momentarily forgotten by markets as the UK's economy continues to waffle below expectations, casting doubt on future rate hikes to come.This week has been a poor run for the GBP/USD, which is struggling to hang onto the 1.3000 major handle heading into the brunt of Friday's trading. The Sterling is currently down over 2% from the week's highs near 1.3290, and bulls are in full retreat after failing to recapture the pivotal 1.3300 technical level, with short-selling piling onto the weakened currency pair as a triplet of key economic data for the UK failed to impress against median market expectations. Tuesday's Average Earnings failed to drive Sterling confidently into new buying positions after coming in exactly as expected, and the week spiraled out from there, with Wednesday's CPI reading coming in softer than expected, followed by Thursday's Retail Sales figures, which showed a -0.5% contraction against the previous month. Pound traders now head into Friday with a milder economic calendar line-up, with June's Public Sector Net Borrowing dropping at 08:30 GMT, expected to tick higher from £3.356 billion to £3.6 billion. Late Thursday saw Dollar-Bearish comments from US President Donald Trump, who voiced dissatisfaction with the current pace of Fed rate hikes, strongly hinting that he would prefer a slower and lower creep-up of interest rates, but the bullish momentum for the GBP/USD was short-lived as the US Federal Reserve remains an independent entity from the US' White House administration.GBP/USD Levels to watchThe Sterling-Dollar's last-minute bounce to 1.3000 may prove to be just a temporary setback for GBP short-sellers, and things remain camped firmly in bearish territory, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "technical readings in the 4 hours chart show that the ongoing correction doesn't affect the dominant bearish trend, as the 20 SMA heads south almost vertically some 80 pips above the current level, while technical indicators have bounced from oversold readings, but remain well into the red." Support levels: 1.3000 1.2970 1.2935 Resistance levels: 1.3080 1.3120 1.3155  

Livesquawk reports the latest comments from the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as saying that the claims the US President Trump is weak against hi

Livesquawk reports the latest comments from the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, as saying that the claims the US President Trump is weak against his Russian counterpart Putin are ‘absurd’. Pompeo added that he is confident Russia will keep trying to meddle with the US. Earlier today, Reuters reported that Trump invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the White House this autumn.

The AUD/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals dropped to -1.00 today – the lowest level since June 29, indicating the implied volatility premium for A

Risk reverals show rising demand for out of the money AUD put options (bearish bets). Investors are likely expecting a deeper drop in the Aussie - dollar a proxy for China. The AUD/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals dropped to -1.00 today – the lowest level since June 29, indicating the implied volatility premium for AUD puts (demand for AUD puts) is higher than that of AUD calls.  It could be argued that investors are likely expecting a deeper drop in th Aussie dollar and hence are seeking downside protection, i.e. buying put options. At the time of writing, the Aussie dollar is trading at 0.7355, having clocked a high and low of 0.7375 and 0.7318, respectively.  PBOC's massive CNY devaluation is likely hurting the Aussie dollar and other antopodeans and could force the Fed and Trump administration to launch a counter attack. The technical charts indicate the path of least resistance is to the downside and bigger losses could be in the offing if th currency pair closes below the July 2 llow of 0.7310. Hourly chartSpot Rate: 0.7350 Daily HIgh: 0.7375 Daily Low: 0.7318 Trend: BearishResitanceR1: 0.7382 (5-day moving average) R2: 0.7402 (10-day moving average) R3: 0.7441 (previous day's high)SupportS1: 0.7328 (May 2017 low) S2: 0.7310 (July 2 low) S3: 0.7145 (May 2016 low)    

As the Chinese Yuan extends the sell-off versus its American counterpart, traders are reporting about the intervention by the state-owned banks. Majo

As the Chinese Yuan extends the sell-off versus its American counterpart, traders are reporting about the intervention by the state-owned banks. Major state-owned Chinese banks are seen selling dollars in Yuan market at around 6.81 Yuan/ US dollar to stem the Yuan declines. The USD/CNY pair rallied hard to print fresh one-year highs at 6.8117 before reversing sharply to 6.7930 levels, where it now wavers.

According to the Bank of Korea’s (BOK), South Korea’s central bank, estimates published on Friday, North Korea’s economy contracted at the sharpest ra

According to the Bank of Korea’s (BOK), South Korea’s central bank, estimates published on Friday, North Korea’s economy contracted at the sharpest rate in two decades in 2017, Reuters reports.Key Highlights:Gross domestic product (GDP) in North Korea last year contracted 3.5 percent from the previous year, marking the biggest contraction since a 6.5 percent drop in 1997 when the isolated nation was going through a devastating famine.    Industrial production, which accounts for about a third of the nation’s total output, dropped by 8.5 percent and also marked the steepest decline since 1997 as factory production collapsed on restrictions of flows of oil and other energy resources into the country. The output from agriculture, construction industries also fell by 1.3 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively. Shin Seung-cheol, Head of the BOK’s National Accounts Coordination Team noted: “The sanctions were stronger in 2017 than they were in 2016. External trade volume fell significantly with the exports ban on coal, steel, fisheries and textile products. It’s difficult to put exact numbers on those but it (export bans) crashed industrial production.”

Gold, widely considered an antithesis to fiat currencies, finds no takers despite rising odds of US-China currency war.  At press time, the yellow me

Gold is flashing red despite Yuan devaluation and rising fears of Sino-US trade war.Oversold conditions might yield a minor corrective rally.Gold, widely considered an antithesis to fiat currencies, finds no takers despite rising odds of US-China currency war.  At press time, the yellow metal is trading at $1,218.70, having clocked a one-year low od $1,211.65 yesterday.  Prices have dropped more than 10 percent in the last three months despite US-China trade war, triggering speculation the yellow metal is losing its safe haven appeal.  Further, it is showing no signs of life even though the US and China are closing on a full-blown currency war. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is increasingly favoring a weaker Yuan and that could force the Trump administration to retaliate in kind. Moreover, President Trump has already expressed concerns regarding Fed rate hikes.  That said, the oversold technical conditions, as shown by the relative strength index (RSI) could put a bid under gold prices.Gold Technical LevelsResistance: $1,223 (50-hour MA), $1,230 (resistance on the hourly chart), $1,239 (200-hour MA). Support: $1,215 (session low), $1,211 (previous day’s low), $1,200 (Psychological level).  

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) Research Team enlists key macro events due to be reported from Canada later today at 1230 GMT. Key Quot

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) Research Team enlists key macro events due to be reported from Canada later today at 1230 GMT.Key Quotes:“May Retail salesHarsh weather conditions kept shoppers away in April. Early indications suggest that the following month saw sales speed ahead. Led by a strong rebound in car purchases. Even ex-autos reading should benefit from a return to more seasonable weather. Rebound in retail sales will support a decent monthly GDP print, it's unlikely to be the beginning of a new trend. The slower pace of job creation in 2018 combined with rising consumer borrowing rates will leave consumption providing less of a contribution to growth this year.June Inflation A surprise decline in ex-food and energy prices meant that May was the second consecutive soft reading.  Rebound is in store. With a fall in gasoline, look for headline prices to advance 0.1% NSA, leaving the annual rate accelerating to 2.4% from the 2.2% it has been tracking since April. That said, the Bank of Canada's core common component measure should remain steady at 1.9% for the fifth straight month.”

Hourly chart Spot Rate: 130.95 Daily High: 131.23 Daily Low: 130.60 Trend: Bearish Resistance R1: 131.23 (session high) R2: 131.91 (200-day m

EUR/JPY has charted a head-and-shoulders bearish reversal pattern, the hourly chart shows. It indicates the rally from the May 29 low of 124.61 has ended and the bears have likely regained control. The breakdown has opened the doors to 129.90 (target as per the measured height method). Hourly chartSpot Rate: 130.95 Daily High: 131.23 Daily Low: 130.60 Trend: BearishResistanceR1: 131.23 (session high) R2: 131.91 (200-day moving average) R3: 133.51 (April 24 high)SupportS1: 130.60 (session low) S2: 130.29 (100-say moving average) S3: 130.00 (psychological support)

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) provide their insights on the efforts likely to be stepped up by the Chinese authorities to

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) provide their insights on the efforts likely to be stepped up by the Chinese authorities to boost the economic growth in the coming months.Key Quotes:“We believe China will take a more proactive stance to support economic growth in the H2 2018. State Council may launch some growth-boosting measures, which should help turn around weakening growth in infrastructure spending. We see this ultimately supporting steel and iron ore market, with the latter likely to push back towards USD70/tonne. A recent State Council meeting called for an acceleration in fiscal spending, which may help to provide funding for infrastructure projects.”

The NZD/USD knocked back to 0.6720 in Asia trading for Friday after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalued the Yuan with the largest single-day de

The Kiwi dipped on a surprise Yuan cut by China, but traders are scrambling to keep the day's action near where it started.Friday is a thin showing for the NZD, and economic data is likely to be inconsequential as traders wrestle with swings in risk appetite.The NZD/USD knocked back to 0.6720 in Asia trading for Friday after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalued the Yuan with the largest single-day decrease since June of 2016, dragging the Antipodeans lower. Following the PBOC's severe cut to the Yuan, the Kiwi is trying to stage a rebound, lifting away from yesterday's low of 0.6712 to trade near 0.6740, though bullish momentum remains limited for the NZD after late Thursday's New Zealand Visitor Arrivals figures for June showed a -7.8% decline over the same period a year ago. All that remains for the Kiwi for Friday data is y/y Credit Card Spending figures for June, which last came in at 3.7%, but the low-tier figure is unlikely to drive much volatility into the pair as traders keep an eye on broader market sentiment, and try to position themselves ahead of the weekend.NZD/USD Levels to watchThe Kiwi is struggling to shrug off yesterday's declines amidst downward pressure on commodities having a profound effect on the NZD, keeping the New Zealand currency subdued, and as FXStreet's own Ross Burland noted, "nearer term, the price has been unable to overcome 0.6760, resisted by the 21-hr SMA. From a fundamental perspective, there is a case for further supply into the bearish channel below 0.6720. 0.6920, however, would put the bulls back in control and bulls can target the June highs. The 200-month moving average resistance at 0.7007 is next key level."

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is increasingly favoring a weaker currency as it would help the economy absorb shocks from trade war with the US. T

US-China trade war if leading to a full-blown currency war as PBOC is increasingly favoring a weaker Yuan. USD/CNY hit fresh one-year high above 6.8.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is increasingly favoring a weaker currency as it would help the economy absorb shocks from trade war with the US. The central bank devalued the Yuan by most since June 2016 earlier today, practically egging markets to bet against the Chinese currency.  As a result, USD/CNY has risen above 6.8 for the first time since July 12, 2017. More importantly, the slide in CNY is pushing the USD higher across the board and that could force the Trump administration (and the Fed) to take retaliatory action. President Trump has already expressed concerns regarding Fed rate hikes and may up the ante in coming days if the CNY continues to lose ground.  Clearly, two of the biggest economies of the world are closing on a full-blown currency war. 

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on the G10 currencies, centered on the Euro, US dollar, Yen and Yuan, in its latest client note release

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on the G10 currencies, centered on the Euro, US dollar, Yen and Yuan, in its latest client note released on Friday.Key Points (via Bloomberg):Sees a weaker USD in "coming weeks", citing: Economic data surprises in the US vs. G10 PBOC's policy stanceOn the EUR,Market too bearish on euro, overly concerned about European political risks & growth outlook. Limited scope for the ECB to ease further given bond capacity constraints. USD topping would herald the start of an EUR rally. EUR/USD has absorbed bearish news without dropping under 1.1510, which is constructive.On USD/JPY:Looks for "one more leg higher" to 115. Low Japanese real yields may keep USD/JPY supported "until risk assets turn, as we expect in coming weeks, and Japan's substantial exposure to U.S. risk assets renders it vulnerable to repatriation flows".On Yuan:USD rally could be blunted if there's a stabilization of Chinese equities that might be a sign the USD/CNH is peaking.         

The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) decision to devalue Yuan by most since June 2016 is hurting the Aussie dollar, proxy for China.  The currency pai

Trump’s trade war is fueling a currency war between the US and China.AUD, a proxy for China, is taking a hit after PBOC’s devaluation of CNY.The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) decision to devalue Yuan by most since June 2016 is hurting the Aussie dollar, proxy for China.  The currency pair has lost more than 50 pips in the last 25 minutes and is currently trading at the session low of 0.7325. The PBOC raised the yuan reference rate by 605 pips to 6.7671 today - the biggest single-day jump in over two years. More importantly, the move comes a day after the US President Trump said he is not thrilled with the (Fed) rate hikes and fears that the higher cost of borrowing would nullify the work his administration has done. The timing of the massive CNY devaluation indicates the world’s two biggest economies are likely moving towards a full-fledged currency war. Consequently, the AUD and Asian currencies have come under pressure.  The Aussie dollar risks falling further should the equity markets turn risk averse in response to massive CNY devaluation. AUD/USD Technical LevelsResistance: 0.7360 (July 12 low), 0.7401 (10-day MA), 0.7441 (July 19 high). Support: 0.7310 (July 2 low), 0.7160 (Dec 2016 low), 0.7145 (May 2016 low).  

As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the White House this autumn, despite the intense pol

As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the White House this autumn, despite the intense political and public backlash that the POTUS has faced since the Helsinki summit.Key quotes"Four days after Trump stunned the world by siding with Putin in Helsinki over his intelligence agencies, the president asked national security adviser John Bolton to issue the invitation to the Russian leader, said White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders. What happened at Monday’s one-on-one between Trump and Putin with only interpreters present remained a mystery, even to top officials and U.S. lawmakers who said they had not been briefed. The coveted invitation was sure to be seen as a victory by Putin, whose last official visit to the United States was in July 2007, when he spent two days at the Bush family compound. Both Trump and Putin earlier on Thursday praised their first meeting as a success and blamed forces in the United States for trying to belittle its achievements, Trump citing discussions on counterterrorism, Israel’s security, nuclear proliferation, cyber attacks, trade, Ukraine, Middle East peace and North Korea. In one Twitter post, Trump blamed the media. “The Summit with Russia was a great success, except with the real enemy of the people, the Fake News Media.” In Moscow, Putin said the summit “was successful overall and led to some useful agreements” without elaborating on the agreements. With Trump under fierce criticism in the United States, the White House on Thursday rejected Putin’s proposal that Russian authorities be present for the questioning of Americans it accuses of “illegal activities,” including a former U.S. ambassador to Moscow. It was the latest about-face in a week of multiple reversals. Critics complained that Trump was given ample opportunity at a joint news conference on Monday to scold Putin over Russian interference in the election but instead accepted Putin’s denials over the word of American intelligence agencies."

According to results from a Reuters survey of large and medium-sized businesses in Japan, respondents are expecting inflation to remain subdued. Key

According to results from a Reuters survey of large and medium-sized businesses in Japan, respondents are expecting inflation to remain subdued.Key highlightsTwo-thirds of respondents say inflation between 0 and 1% is "appropriate". 44% of those surveyed say the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) price goal will take longer than 3 years to attain. 27% believe that the 2% inflation target is outright unreachable. 42% are concerned about the long-term impact of ongoing trade frictions.Key quotes from Reuters"The survey results suggest that many companies believe Japan's economy has entered a new normal of muted inflation." "Consumer prices have been hovering just under 1 percent for some time. A BOJ governor calls it the 'Amazon effect,' the growth of Internet retailers is keeping inflation from accelerating." "As such, 2 percent inflation is unthinkable," said a service company manager. A machinery maker concurred: "The 2 percent inflation target is groundless. Public sentiment is such that such a target is not called for."

A weaker Yuan is China's answer to Trump's trade war.  The People's Bank of China set the Yuan midpoint rate at 6.7671 today – up 605 pips from the p

A weaker Yuan is China's answer to Trump's trade war.  The People's Bank of China set the Yuan midpoint rate at 6.7671 today – up 605 pips from the previous day's fix of 6.7066. This is the biggest single day devaluation of CNY since June 2016.  The massive CNY drop could hurt the AUD, proxy for China and Asian currencies. 

The GBP/JPY is trading into 146.50 as the pair winds through Friday's Asia trading session after slipping from yesterday's high of 147.58 after UK dat

A pummeled Sterling sees continued softness against the safe-haven Yen.Key economic figures for the UK continue to disappoint.The GBP/JPY is trading into 146.50 as the pair winds through Friday's Asia trading session after slipping from yesterday's high of 147.58 after UK data once again failed to give GBP buyers reason to celebrate. Thursday's Retail Sales for the UK came in under expectations across the board, with the headline m/m Retail Sales for June contracting by -0.5%, flubbing the expected 0.4% reading and widening the gap against the last period's 1.4%. GBP bulls got pushed to the sidelines as the Sterling sunk steadily against the JPY, bottoming out at 146.15. Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures which dropped late on Thursday came in at 0.7%, mildly missing the expected 0.8% and remaining steady with the previous reading, though Asia-session market participants saw little reaction to the mid-tier reading. The GBP heads into Friday's trading on a soft tone, and early Friday's bounce from the week's new low could see short-sellers primed for a further move lower.GBP/JPY Levels to watchThe Guppy's action this week has been fairly one-sided, dropping from the week's high of 149.30 to step into range of last week's low, near the 146.00 major level. Continued declines will be facing support from June's low at 143.76 while a bullish reversal will have to first clear the week's 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 147.70.    

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.7671 vs previos day's fix of 6.7066.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.7671 vs previos day's fix of 6.7066.

USD/JPY is currently on the bid in the Tokyo opening hourly sticks, with a surge from 112.36 to current highs of 112.58,  (not that the Japanese CPI d

USD/JPY pops in Tokyo, bargain hunters cleaning up. The longer-term bullish trend is not yet at risk.USD/JPY is currently on the bid in the Tokyo opening hourly sticks, with a surge from 112.36 to current highs of 112.58,  (not that the Japanese CPI data will have had much to do with the move).  The dollar is bouncing in Tokyo as traders pick up the bargain after NY's sell-off on Trump's comments that were CNBC aired in a teaser interview clip where he revealed that he is not thrilled with higher interest rates.  This took the DXY off its one-year high that was scored subsequent of the Chinese authorities renewing their pressure on the Chinese yuan in yesterday's Asian session. Japanese data:Japan inflation data: National headline CPI 0.7% y/y (vs. expected 0.8%). Meanwhile, there was a flight to Treasuries and US 10yr yields that had initially risen to 2.90% started falling during the NY session and dumped to 2.83% on the Trump noise. The two-year yields similarly fell from a decade high at 2.63% to 2.58% - (Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018). The underlying factor is that the dollar remains king, the world's commodity currency, massively short offshore in the EMs and the Fed is on its path of raising rates in stark contrast to that of its counterparts around the globe. Hence the dollar is cheap and Tokyo knows it, taking advantage of that in thinner Asian markets ahead of European traders returning to their desks. USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXSreet explained that in the 4 hours chart, "technical indicators head lower within bearish territory with strong downward slopes, while the price remains far above bullish moving averages, which means that the longer term bullish trend is not yet at risk, although further downward corrective movements can't be disregarded."

According to a People's Bank of China (PBOC) official who made written statements in the Financial News, a PBOC-operated newspaper, China's leveraging

According to a People's Bank of China (PBOC) official who made written statements in the Financial News, a PBOC-operated newspaper, China's leveraging has stabilized, and Chinese debt growth is also seen slowing its pace.Key highlightsLeverage ratio has stabilized. The pace of debt increases into Q1 has slowed. China plans to hold the leverage ratio under 'firm control', plans to keep liquidity reasonably ample. PBoC intends to maintain reasonable growth in credit supply, social financing. High external risks, as well as a risk of slowing domestic demand, are the biggest threats to China's economy right now.

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Our model1 projects the fix to be 606 pips higher than

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 606 pips higher than the previous fix (6.7672 from 6.7066) and 62 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.7734. The basket implied change is 74 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.7660 from 6.7734)."

USD/JPY Chart, 15-Minute Spot rate:  112.47 Relative change:  0.04% High:  112.49 Low:  112.33

The Dollar tumbled against the Yen after Trump commented on his dissatisfaction with current Fed policy, but the USD/JPY is slowly bouncing heading into Friday.Thursday's decline sees the Dollar-Yen pairing knocked further back from recent highs than bulls would have hoped for, an extra push will be needed to clear into new highs for 2018.The rapid drop could signal a potential rollover into refreshed Greenback selling in broader markets, which could kick off a leg down against the G10.USD/JPY Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  112.47 Relative change:  0.04% High:  112.49 Low:  112.33     Trend:  Flat to bullish     Support 1:  112.04 (previous day low) Support 2:  110.76 (100.0% Fibo retracement level) Support 3:  110.34 (previous week low)     Resistance 1:  112.79 (July 13th swing high) Resistance 2:  113.16 (previous day high) Resistance 3:  113.74 (December 12th swing high)  

According to Reuters, The Trump administration came under fire on Thursday from foreign automobile companies as the US considers its options on imposi

According to Reuters, The Trump administration came under fire on Thursday from foreign automobile companies as the US considers its options on imposing a hefty 25% tariff on foreign autos.Key quotes"Hundreds of workers employed by foreign automakers rallied on Capitol Hill, urging the administration to drop the plans they said could threaten their jobs. A bipartisan group of 150 lawmakers signed a letter urging the administration to drop the plans amid the opposition of groups representing nearly all major automakers, dealers, parts companies and retailers. Administration officials and congressional aides say the tariff probe is in part designed to win concessions during ongoing NAFTA renegotiation talks, but note that Trump has told aides he wants to impose tariffs before the congressional elections in November. Canada’s deputy ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, told the hearing that imposing tariffs on Canadian imports would be “devastating” to the U.S. auto sector and that Canada would respond in a “proportional manner” if auto tariffs were imposed. “Canada could not conceivably represent any risk to U.S. national security,” she said. European Union Ambassador David O’Sullivan said at the hearing that the suggestion that imports of vehicles and parts from the “closest allies” of the United States could pose a security risk was “absurd” and “lacks legitimacy.” A group representing major automakers told Commerce on Thursday that imposing tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and parts would raise the price of U.S. vehicles by $83 billion annually and cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. Automakers say there is “no evidence” that auto imports pose a national security risk, and that the tariffs could actually harm U.S. economic security. They are also facing higher prices after tariffs were imposed on aluminum and steel imports. No automaker or parts company has endorsed the tariffs, and they have pointed to near-record sales in recent years.

For the first time since 9 August 2017, the yuan fixing was set beyond 6.70. In response, commodity-FX was wallopped and the dollar soared to 95.6520.

Forex today was sent the DXY to a one-year high after the Chinese authorities put renewed pressure on Chinese yuan in yesterday's Asian session. In NY, the dollar was on the backfoot and ended up pretty much flat after CNBC screened a teaser interview clip where Trump revealed that he is not thrilled with higher interest rates. For the first time since 9 August 2017, the yuan fixing was set beyond 6.70. In response, commodity-FX was wallopped and the dollar soared to 95.6520. When Trump's comments were aired, the dollar crash landed down to 94.93 before recovering to 95.25 where it consolidated between there and 95.16. This all leads to a flight to Treasuries and US 10yr yields that had initially risen to 2.90%  started falling during the NY session and dumped to 2.83%. The two-year yields similarly fell from a decade high at 2.63% to 2.58% - (Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018).Currency actionMeanwhile, the euro nor the yen are positive substitutes for the dollar's yield advantage and the moves are likely to be short-lived. Nevertheless, EUR/USD bounced off 1.1575 to 1.1678, clearing the July 18 high and the  21-D SMA at 1.1662 but the rebound still needs to produce a close above the 50-D SMA to gain traction at 1.17 the figure.  USD/JPY dropped from a whisker away from the 200-W SMA at 113.22, (just above is where the 61.8% of the 2016-18 drop at 113.27-28 is located), to 112.06 while the yen claimed back its safe-haven status. However, it failed to break down below 10-DMA at 111.96 where stops are located.  Sterling was making its case for a close below the 10-W SMA at 1.3074, extending its series of daily lower lows to 1.2957, ( new 2018 low after June UK retail sales miss),  before rebounding on the Trump noise back to a close of 1.3013, (Trump fuelled high 1.3049). Brexit still weighs - (some analysts are calling for as low as 1.1200 on a hard Brexit outcome).  The cross was moving up to 0.8949, +0.47%, on Brexit angst along with the EUR yield differential vs GBP and USD narrowing. However,  analysts at Scotiabank argued that 'the BoE expectations for August are little changed'  at 83% priced for +25bps on Aug 2nd - i.e. Brexit is still the biggest concern here.  As for the antipodeans, following suit of the Chinese devaluation of its currency, EMs fell apart and the Aussie and Kiwi proxy trade responded accordingly.  AUD/USD made a new short-term low falling from fell from 0.7440 to 0.7323 before bouncing to 0.7380. The kiwi fell from 0.6780 to 0.6714 before bouncing to 0.6762 on the Trump news as well. Key notes from US session:Renewed pressure on Chinese yuan – ABN AMROWall Street closes in red on risk-aversion and dismal earningsUS Pres. Trump worries that higher rates would 'nullify' work his administration has done - CNBCNote: there are no key events for the end of the week. 

Japan Foreign bond investment: ¥-5.6B (July 9) vs previous ¥817.9B

Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks up to ¥601.4B in July 9 from previous ¥74.3B

According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, broader markets are heading too far into bearish territory on the EUR, as the investment bank expects a decli

According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, broader markets are heading too far into bearish territory on the EUR, as the investment bank expects a decline in the USD looking forward.Key highlightsMorgan Stanley is looking for a weaker USD in the "coming weeks". Economic data surprises coming from the US vs the G10 economies could see the Greenback drive lower. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is also expected to adjust their policy stance in response to the rising trade war, which could further weaken the USD.Regarding the EURMarkets are overpricing into the shortside on European political risks and growth outlooks. The European Central Bank is unable to ease further, considering bond capacity limits. A topping pattern in the USD could herald a major EUR leg higher. The EUR/USD has begun to absorb bearish news, refusing to drop below 1.1510.Regarding the JPYMorgan Stanley is anticipating another "leg higher" to 115. Constrained Japanese yields are expected to keep the USD supported against the Yen.

Germany's Finance Ministry has released their July monthly report, and the ministerial group has highlighted that growing threats from protectionism a

Germany's Finance Ministry has released their July monthly report, and the ministerial group has highlighted that growing threats from protectionism and Brexit are set to hamper growth looking forward.Key highlightsThe domestic German economy is in "robust" shape, growth is delivering "considerable drive" to the upside. Q2 growth for Germany is expected to be "slightly stronger" that the preceding quarter. Brexit poses a risk as uncertainty takes its toll on businesses. "But risks remain... Protectionist tendencies have increased and the risk of a global trade conflict has risen".

Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in June

Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.4%) in June

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (0.8%) in June: Actual (0.7%)

Analysts at Nomura noted the key data events from overnight. Key Quotes: Philly Fed survey: "July Philly Fed survey points to continued healthy mom

Analysts at Nomura noted the key data events from overnight.Key Quotes:Philly Fed survey:"July Philly Fed survey points to continued healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector, while manufacturers continue to see concerns about tariffs. The survey’s headline index jumped to 25.7 in July, above expectations (Nomura: 20.0, Consensus: 21.5), from 19.9 in June." "The new orders index improved strongly to 31.4 from 17.9. While shipments index eased to 24.7 from 28.7, it is still at an elevated level. Unfilled orders rebounded to 11.0 from -2.7, implying elevated demand." "The prices paid index was elevated at 62.9, up from 51.8, and suggests a pickup in input costs increases. Number of employees and average workweek indices declined in July, suggesting less widespread growth in employment than in June. The indicator of future business activity eased to 29.0 in July from 34.8 in June and remains below its level before the US steel and aluminum tariffs were announced." "The recent softening of this measure appears consistent with the July Federal Reserve Beige Book which provided anecdotal accounts of concerns about tariffs from business respondents. Continued easing in this index may have been partly driven by some reflection of elevated trade tensions in our view and appears with the June Empire State survey, which is another early indicator of manufacturers’ sentiment for July."Initial jobless claims:"Initial jobless claims declined 8k to 207k in the week ending 14 July, the lowest reading since 1969. The historically low reading bears well for the July employment report as this reading corresponds to the BLS survey week for July employment report. Continuing claims increased marginally by 8k to 1751k in the week ending 7 July, which is still a low level. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%. It appears likely that initial claims will continue to fall gradually. However, claims data can be more volatile during the summer."

As reported by Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump's comments on Wednesday about his dissatisfaction with the Fed's current rate hike schedule could

As reported by Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump's comments on Wednesday about his dissatisfaction with the Fed's current rate hike schedule could push the Fed to raise rates quicker in an effort to prove the central bank's independence.Key quotes"President Donald Trump’s extraordinary broadside against the Federal Reserve on Thursday may end up getting him exactly what he doesn’t want: higher interest rates. Confronted with a burst of presidential pressure not seen for decades to keep monetary policy easy, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee may feel more inclined to demonstrate their political independence and hike rates when facing a close decision. “The president’s comments may skew the committee in a hawkish direction,” Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a note to clients following Trump’s criticism of the central bank in an interview on CNBC. “If a decision is a close call, then the appearance of kowtowing to the president may bias them toward raising rates.” Trump told CNBC that he was “not thrilled” with the Fed over rate hikes. “I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up.” The Fed has raised rates five times since Trump took office in January 2017, and has penciled in two more hikes for this year. It’s also scaling back the support its providing the economy by gradually reducing its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds. There’s little evidence the Fed’s tightening is constricting the second-longest U.S. economic expansion on record: The unemployment rate under Trump has fallen to 4 percent, from 4.8 percent the month he was sworn in, and some economists predict gross domestic product last quarter expanded by more than 4 percent -- about double the pace in the first three months of the year."

New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY) declined to -7.8% in June from previous 6.2%

The AUD/USD is trading into familiar territory near 0.7360 after dipping to a session low on Thursday of 0.7322. Comments from US President Trump lat

Aussie's employment-fueled bull run ended prematurely on Friday, and the AUD fell near yearly lows.Friday's thin calendar will see AUD buyers challenging ongoing short flows.The AUD/USD is trading into familiar territory near 0.7360 after dipping to a session low on Thursday of 0.7322. Comments from US President Trump late in the day caused a spike in the pair, seeing a quick recovery to 0.7380 as the US Dollar weakened following Trump's statement that he doesn't like the pace of interest rate hikes. The USD weakened rapidly on the comments from the US POTUS, but markets are stabilizing and the AUD/USD is beginning to bed back down into bearish levels. Friday is a thin showing for both the Aussie and the Greenback on the economic calendar, and it's up to broader market sentiment to pick a direction moving into the week's end, though Aussie bulls will be looking to jump-start early Friday's bull run off the back of a stellar reading for the Australian employment figures yesterday, which showed Australia adding a forecast-crushing 50,900 jobs in June.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisThe Aussie-Dollar pairing is correcting back lower heading into Friday's overnight session, and bearish pressure is expected to pick up beneath 0.7345; a renewed USD selloff, however, could see the pair back to challenge the 0.7400 critical handle. Bears will have to compete with Aussie buyers who are trying to ride the Aussie employment figures, while looking to capitalize on weakness in the pair fueled by Dollar-buying and take the 0.7330 level.AUD/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate  0.7357 Relative change:  0.05% High:  0.7360 Low:  0.7350     Trend: Bearish       Support 1:  0.7322 (previous day low) Support 2:  0.7310 (2018 low; major technical bottom) Support 3:  0.7290 (S3 daily pivot)     Resistance 1:  0.7395 (61.8% Fibo retracement level) Resistance 2:  0.7440 (current week high) Resistance 3:  0.7483 (previous week high)  

Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation offered a market wrap with the US dollar index initially rising to a one-year high, but falling sharply after

Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation offered a market wrap with the US dollar index initially rising to a one-year high, but falling sharply after Trump's comments - unchanged on the day. Key Quotes:"EUR bounced off 1.1575 to 1.1678. USD/JPY fell from 113.17 to 112.06, the safe-haven yen outperforming. AUD initially fell from 0.7440 to 0.7323 – easily wiping out all the earlier jobs-data gains – but bounced to 0.7380. NZD similarly fell from 0.6780 to 0.6714 before bouncing to 0.6762. AUD/NZD pulled back from 1.0945 to 1.0900 and ranged sideways, still a bit higher than where it was pre-jobs data." "President Trump broke with long established protocols and criticised the Fed for raising interest rates. In an interview with CNBC to be aired today, Trump said, “I’m not thrilled. Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again. I don't really — I am not happy about it. But at the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best.” The President also noted that the Chinese yuan is “dropping like a rock” and that the strong USD, “puts us at a disadvantage”. White House officials walked back the President comments noting that Trump respects the independence of the Fed and wasn’t interfering with Fed decisions." "The Philly Fed business survey rebounded by more than expected in July, the headline index rising to 25.7 from 21.5; a solid reading that confirms trade skirmishes are not yet meaningfully damaging sentiment. The underlying detail shows solid new orders (31.4 from 17.9) and building inflation pressures/supply bottlenecks; prices paid rose to a post crisis high of 62.9 while delivery times and unfilled orders rose too." "UK retail sales for June missed expectations with a headline -0.5% fall (exp. +0.2%), for an annual pace of +2.9% (exp. +3.5%). The positive impact of better weather and the World Cup was limited to food and beverage. Footfall in other areas actually dropped substantially. However, the ONS made it clear that 2Q as a whole had a very positive outcome, rising 2.1%, the largest quarterly pick up for over three years." "US 10yr treasury yields initially rose to 2.90% but started falling during the NY session, Trumps comments extending the decline to 2.83%. Two year yields similarly fell from 2.63% (a decade high) to 2.58%. Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018."

Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for Asia and beyond while wrapping up the key events from overnight and which remain in focus.  Key Q

Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for Asia and beyond while wrapping up the key events from overnight and which remain in focus. Key Quotes:"President Trump undermined a broad dollar rally when he commented on Fed policy in an afternoon interview, stating he was "not happy" with continued rate hikes, spurring questions on central bank independence. Treasuries saw a muted reaction to Trump, with a 2-3 bps rally across the curve while Canadian rates underperformed in the front-end. The USD proved more sensitive to the President's comments, with JPY (+0.4%) rallying 0.7% immediately after the headlines before unwinding some of the move. USD/CAD (+0.7%) ground higher over the session, leaving the pair at a three-week high while Cable (-0.4%) traded below 1.30 for the first time since 2017 before recovering. Brexit developments and top-tier Canadian data are the main market risks for Friday.What we're watching in markets"We've reached our year-end USD/CNY target early, and have thus revised our view for further CNY weakness. "We continue to see the CNY REER as the operative lever through which China can ease monetary conditions against domestic deceleration, in the presence of low/stable inflation, an unwillingness to ease rates, and regulatory tightening. We now target 7.10 in USDCNY by year-end." "FX markets were rattled by Trump's comments that he prefers a weaker USD and lower interest rate policy. That said, substitutes to the USD are not as attractive at this time given that it still holds a considerable carry advantage. As such, the moves in EUR & JPY are likely to be short-lived. We remain bearish on the dollar bloc currencies given the fractured trade backdrop and weakness in Asia FX. Firm data in Canada leave us inclined to buy USD/CAD dips near 1.3225."
 

NZD/USD has rebounded off the descending trend line support on the back of the teaser interview clip released by CNBC where Trump revealed he is not t

NZD/USD has rebounded off the descending trend line support on the back of the teaser interview clip released by CNBC.Support is located at 0.6720 and resistance remains located at 0.6860 on the wide.NZD/USD has rebounded off the descending trend line support on the back of the teaser interview clip released by CNBC where Trump revealed he is not thrilled with higher interest rates. The market dumped the dollar and the commodity sector benefitted, as did the antipodeans. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6743, a tad lower than the 0.6761 highs.US Pres. Trump worries that higher rates would 'nullify' work his administration has done - CNBCNZD/USD was starting to consolidate around 0.6715 and a touch off from the descending trend support established back on the 16th July's business before the headlines. The news came as a reason to take profit after the magnitude of the sell-off from yesterday's revaluation in the Yuan where the PBoC, for the first time since the 9th August 2017, set the pair beyond 6.70 - (The CNY has lost around 8% since its late March peak and 5.5% since mid-June and is now back to the levels seen one year ago). NZD/USD was subsequently sliding from the 0.68 handle to 0.6780 that gave way to further supply throughout Asian and European markets to the 0.6713 NY lows. White House press secretary: Trump respects independence of FedAnalysts at ANZ offer their point of view"Commodity currencies were under pressure overnight, and the NZD was no exception. While the USD was toing and froing on Fed comments by President Trump, the general vibe around trade tensions and global growth appear to be weighing on the kiwi. We suspect positioning is going to limit the near-term downside, but price action leaves us cautious," - analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained. NZD/USD levelsSupport is located at 0.6720 and resistance remains located at 0.6860 on the wide. Nearer term, the price has been unable to overcome 0.6760, resisted by the 21-hr SMA. From a fundamental perspective, there is a case for further supply into the bearish channel below 0.6720. 0.6920, however, would put the bulls back in control and bulls can target the June highs. The 200-month moving average resistance at 0.7007 is next key level. 

Major equity indexes in the United States started the day on a weak note as investors' focus, once again, turned to trade conflict headlines. The CBOE

CBOE Volatility Index rises more than 6% on Thursday.Trump criticizes the Fed's monetary policy.European Commision says the EU will retaliate if the U.S. imposes tariffs on European car imports.Major equity indexes in the United States started the day on a weak note as investors' focus, once again, turned to trade conflict headlines. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose more than 6% to suggest a risk-off environment.  Speaking in Brussels earlier today, Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU’s trade commissioner, said that there would be a 'disastrous' impact on the economy if the Trump administration were to impose tariffs on European car imports and added that the EU would retaliate. "When you see concerns over trade arise, you see small caps and the dollar typically rise, and that shows they are seen as safe haven assets," Shawn Cruz, manager of the trader strategy at TD Ameritrade in Chicago, ‎Illinois, told Reuters. The risk-sensitive S&P 500 Information Technology Index (SPLRCT) closed the day 0.33% lower on Thursday. However, after the closing bell, Microsoft reported higher-than-expected Q2 revenue and EPS, which could help the sector rebound on Friday. On the other hand, in an interview with CNBC, President Donald Trump said that he wasn't happy with the Fed's decision to raise rates and added that he was concerned about the potential negative impact of the Fed's monetary policy decisions on the economic expansion. The S&P Financials Index (SPSY) suffered the most from Trump's remarks and lost 1.44% on the day to weigh on financial-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average, which erased 134.52 points to 25,064.77. The S&P 500 fell 11.48 points, or 0.41%, to 2,804.14 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 28.27 points, or 0.36%, to 7,826.18.DJIA technical outlook (via FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik)"The Dow now barely holds in the green weekly basis, having bottomed for the day near last Friday's close. The decline, considering that the index advanced for the previous five sessions, seems corrective, given that in the daily chart, it holds well above its moving averages, with the shortest advancing, while technical indicators hold near overbought levels, with only the RSI retreating, currently at 60." "Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, however, the risk of a downward extension has increased, as the index settled below a now horizontal 20 SMA, still developing well above it's 100 and 200 SMA, as technical indicators extended their declines, now challenging their midlines. " According to the analyst, supports are located at 25,045, 24,990, and 24,933, while resistances align at 25,061, 25,103, and 25,157.

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) up to 2.6% in June from previous 2.2%

Crude oil WTI 15-minute chart Spot rate:             67.98 Relative change:  0.80%      High:                    68.80 Low:                    

Crude oil reached almost a daily high of $69.00 on the CL 09-18 Futures contract as bulls reached the upper range of the bear channel. Bulls will try to breakout above the channel pushing through 68.30 and 69.00 while bears will try to drive the market down below 67.72 and 67.16. Bulls have been quite active in the last two days but they need a clear breakout above 68.30-69.00 in order to officially call the resumption of the bull trend. Failure to breakout above 69.00 would be seen as a sign of bullish weakness and would likely be met with strong selling. Crude oil WTI 15-minute chartSpot rate:             67.98
Relative change:  0.80%     
High:                    68.80
Low:                     66.62 Trend:                  Bullish
Resistance 1:      68.30 supply/demand level
Resistance 2:      69.00 figure 
Resistance 3:      69.44 June 25 high
Resistance 4:      70.00 figure   
Resistance 5:      70.53 May 24 low 
Resistance 6:      71.19 May 23 low  
Resistance 7:      72.13 July 6 low
Resistance 8:      73.00 figure Support 1:           68.30 supply/demand level 
Support 2:           67.72 June 26 low
Support 3:           67.16 June 14 high
Support 4:           66.53 June 20 high
Support 5:           65.71, June 22 low

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth: 0% (June) vs previous 0.2%