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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan is set to hold interest rates after its first hike since 2007 in March.The focus will be on BoJ’s updated forecasts and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference.The volatility around the Japanese Yen could spike on the BoJ policy announcements.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to leave its short-term rate target unchanged in the range between 0% and 0.1% on Friday, following the conclusion of its two-day monetary policy review meeting for April. The BoJ will announce its decision on Friday at around 3:00 GMT. The BoJ hiked the interest rate for the first time in 17 years in March, lifting Japan out of the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) for the first time since 2016. What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision? With a steady policy widely expected, the markets’ attention will remain on the BoJ’s quarterly inflation and growth forecasts and the probable changes in the policy statement for fresh hints on the timing of the Bank’s next rate increase. Markets are expecting the BoJ to hike rates again this year, with odds split between the chance of a lift-off in July, or sometime in the October-December quarter, according to Reuters. Kyodo News Agency reported on Friday, citing sources familiar with the BoJ thinking, that the Japanese central bank is mulling an upward revision to its inflation outlook for fiscal year 2024 from the current 2.4%. The bank is also seen raising its forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 1.8% to around 2.0% while forecasting Japan's core inflation to be around 2% in fiscal 2026, the sources added. These expectations hold even as Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – a measure excluding fresh food and energy costs closely watched by the BoJ –  moderated to 2.9% in March after increasing 3.2% in February. It was the first time since November 2022 that core inflation fell below 3%. Easing price pressures in Japan fail to deter the BoJ’s path forward on interest rates, as the recent depreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY) is likely to significantly push up inflation. Further, the BoJ focus remains on the potential increases in the services inflation and wages to determine the appropriate time for the next rate hike. Japanese firms offered their biggest wage hikes in 33 years this year but the inflation-adjusted real wages have continued to decline for nearly two years. When asked about the possibility of further rate hikes this year, in an interview with the Asahi newspaper earlier this month, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that "it's dependent on data.” "We'll adjust interest rates according to the distance towards sustainably and stably hitting 2% inflation”, Ueda added. On Tuesday, Governor Ueda said that the BoJ will raise rates again if trend inflation accelerates toward its 2% target as expected. Japan's Weighted Median Inflation Index, a key measure of the country’s trend inflation, rose at its slowest pace in 11 months to 1.3% in March, the latest data published by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showed on Tuesday. Governor Ueda’s remarks imply that the central bank is shifting to a more discretionary approach in setting policy. The BoJ could remain on track to deliver another rate hike this year as it gathers more confidence that Japan will sustainably achieve its 2% price target. Therefore, the country’s trend inflation, wage growth and consumption data will hold more importance than the central bank’s quarterly inflation projections in determining the Bank’s future interest rate decisions. Analysts at BBH preview the BoJ policy announcements, noting that “we are sticking to our view that the BoJ tightening cycle will remain very modest.  The market agrees and is pricing in only 20 bp of tightening in 2024 and 50 bp over the next two years.  Such a modest cycle would likely keep upward pressure on USD/JPY.”  “Updated macro forecasts will be released.  Reports emerged suggesting the BoJ may raise its inflation forecast for FY2024 from 2.4% currently at this meeting.  However, March CPI data last week came in lower than expected and suggests falling price pressures, so the revision is likely to be minor,” the analysts explained. How could the Bank of Japan interest rate decision affect USD/JPY? If the BoJ policy statement delivers a hawkish tone, indicating that the next rate hike could be as early as July, the Japanese Yen is likely to see a fresh upswing against the US Dollar (USD). The USD/JPY pair would then initiate a corrective downtrend toward the 150.00 level. On the other hand, if the central bank suggests that they would cautiously monitor the likelihood of achieving 2% trend inflation to gauge the next rate increase, it could be read as dovish. In such a case, the Japanese Yen could crash to a new 34-year low against the US Dollar. It’s worth noting that the Japanese Yen tends to weaken on BoJ decision days. It has done so for eight straight and nine of the past ten meetings, per BBH Analysts. From a technical perspective, Dhwani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “Amid extremely overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions on the daily chart, a USD/JPY correction seems long overdue. Should a hawkish BoJ guidance spark a Japanese Yen rally, the pair will pull back sharply toward the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 153.19. Ahead of that level, the April 23 low of 154.55 could challenge bearish commitments. If the corrective decline gains traction, USD/JPY could accelerate toward the 50-day SMA at 151.28.” “On the flip side, the relentless vertical rise could extend toward 156.50, with buyers aiming for the 160.00 level predicted by a senior Liberal Democratic Party official to be a probable intervention point for the Japanese authorities,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Fri Apr 26, 2024 03:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 0.1%Previous: 0%Source: Bank of Japan Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.  

EUR/USD whipped on Thursday after mixed US data plagued markets.US GDP slowed faster than expected, but PCE inflation measures warn of still-high prices.US PCE Price Index figures due during Friday's US market session.EUR/USD whipsawed somewhat on Thursday, and the pair is heading into Friday's early session near 1.0730 after a back-and-forth session and complicated US data that vexed rate cut hopes. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) eased more than expected on Thursday, with annualized Q1 growth slowing to 1.6% compared to the previous 3.4%, and well below the forecast 2.5%. Easing growth is a boon for investors hoping for an accelerated pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed), but too much too fast could send negative knock-on effects throughout the US economy.  Hopes for rate cuts were further eroded after US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation accelerated again in the first quarter, with Q1 PCE rising 3.4% compared to the previous quarter’s 1.7%. Still-high inflation is reducing market hopes for rate cuts, sending risk appetite into a tailspin during the US trading session before markets staged a determined but limited recovery. Friday brings mostly low-tier European data, and markets will be turning to face US PCE Price Index figures for March as investors look for a more fine-tuned look at the US’ inflation outlook. Core MoM PCE Price Index figures in March are expected to hold steady at 0.3%, with the annualized figure forecast to tick down slightly to 2.6% from 2.8%. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD churns just north of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0690, but Euro bidders are scrambling to keep the pair propped up beyond the 1.0700 handle. A near-term supply zone is priced in between 1.0880 and 1.0860, keeping interim bullish expectations pinned to the low side. A recent drop below the 200-day EMA at 1.0795 threatens to crimp bullish sentiment despite a technical floor priced in near 1.0600.  EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart
 

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The AUD/USD advance was sponsored by a United States report showing the economy is growing below estimates while inflation picked up. The pair traded at 0.6518, virtually unchanged. AUD/USD reflects continued market reaction to US data Wall Street ended Thursday’s session with losses, which usually could’ve affected the Forex markets, but it didn’t. The US Dollar is under pressure following the release of a softer-than-expected GDP report, which, coupled with a surprise on a higher Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) on a quarterly basis, spurred investors to priced out rate cuts by the Fed. Market pricing for the Fed's first 25 basis point (bps) rate cut was pushed back from September to November. Other US data revealed that the labor market is still solid. There were 207 K Americans filing for unemployment claims, below estimates of 214K and the previous reading of 212 K. AUD/USD traders sent the pair sliding towards its daily low of 0.6485 before recovering some ground. As Friday’s session begins, they will be eyeing the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Australia and the US Core PCE figures on a monthly basis during the North American session. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Despite registering gain for the fourth straight day, the AUD/USD remains bearishly biased, with price action at 0.6525 below the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs). If bulls gather momentum and push prices above that level, up next would be the 100-DMA at 0.6585, standing on their way to 0.6600. Conversely, further weakness could drag the pair below 0.6500. This paves the way for subsequent losses, with the next key support level at 0.6442, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) low at 0.6362.Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

ANZ's New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slipped another 4 points to 82.1 in April, declining to the indicator's lowest levels since 2008. Despite the decline, New Zealand consumer confidence remains higher than it did at the height of the pandemic. Consumer inflation expectations eased to 4.4% from 4.5%, though housing price inflation expectations increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Market reaction NZD/USD continues to trade in a tight but rough range as markets gear up for the early Friday session, stuck near the 0.5950 level. About the ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence The Consumer Confidence released by the ANZ is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The daily chart reveals a bearish bias for the NZD/USD pair underlined by its positioning below major SMAs.For bullish traction to take place, buyers must reclaim control over the 20-day SMA SMAs.Indicators on the daily chart recovered.The NZD/USD pair stands at 0.5949, registering daily gains on Thursday’s session. The prevailing outlook, as presented on the daily chart, shows a strong bearish control as the Kiwi continues to trade below the significant Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Minor upticks visible in the short term do not suggest a meaningful trend reversal. For a bullish revival, bears must cede control to the buyers who would then need to gain the upper hand over the key 20-day SMA to start talking. On the daily chart, The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the NZD/USD pair continues within a negative trend territory. However, some signals of possible market correction exist as the RSI values hint at upward momentum. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows rising green bars, indicating buyers are gradually edging in against the sellers, lending positive momentum to the market. NZD/USD daily chart Moving on to the hourly chart, the RSI also persists in a negative trend, but the latest hour displays an upswing, carrying the indicator above the 50 mark which, paired with decreasing red bars on the MACD histogram, might suggest a short-term trend reversal or correction. NZD/USD hourly chart Assessing the overall landscape, the NZD/USD is in a definitive downtrend, underpinned by its position below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This situation suggests a prolonged bearish momentum as both short-term and long-term traders are selling the pair. Thursday's price movement raises another red flag as an attempted recovery by buyers has been rejected at the 20-day SMA at the 0.5960 level, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction and the potential for further downside. With these considerations, the outlook remains tilted in favor of sellers.   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.595 Today Daily Change 0.0015 Today Daily Change % 0.25 Today daily open 0.5935   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5961 Daily SMA50 0.6052 Daily SMA100 0.6117 Daily SMA200 0.605   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5958 Previous Daily Low 0.592 Previous Weekly High 0.5954 Previous Weekly Low 0.5851 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5944 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5935 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5917 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5899 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5879 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5956 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5976 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5994    

EUR/USD rises due to US GDP shortfall and elevated inflation data.Technical resistance near 50 and 200-day MAs at 1.0805/07; 100-DMA at 1.0848 next hurdle.Downside below 1.0694 could retest year's low at 1.0601, possibly extending to 1.0516.On Thursday, the Euro rose against the US Dollar after US economic data portrayed the economy as weaker than expected. At the same time, the inflation figure prompted investors to price out the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in 2024. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.0729, up by 0.29%. EUR/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD remains bearishly biased, but in the short term, it could test the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) at 1.0805/07. If buyers clear that stir resistance, buyers must crack the 100-DMA at 1.0848. Subsequent gains are seen above that level, with the 1.0900 mark up next. On the flip side, if EUR/USD sellers drag the spot price below the February 14 low of 1.0694, that would pave the way toward the year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.0601, followed by the November 1, 2023, intermediate support at 1.0516. EUR/USD Price Action – Daily ChartEUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0729 Today Daily Change 0.0030 Today Daily Change % 0.28 Today daily open 1.0699   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0735 Daily SMA50 1.0808 Daily SMA100 1.0849 Daily SMA200 1.081   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0714 Previous Daily Low 1.0678 Previous Weekly High 1.069 Previous Weekly Low 1.0601 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0692 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.07 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.068 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0661 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0643 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0716 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0733 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0752