The broadest gauge of world stocks covering 50 markets, the ACWI is little changed today after hitting historic highs yesterday and extending its gains this month to 5.1%. US stock markets also made fresh record peaks, with the S&P500 closing strongly while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite touched an intraday high before paring some gains. We should also give a special mention to commodities which have been on a tear recently, with Copper hitting multi-year highs yesterday.
With US GDP already back to where it started pre-Covid, the Fed still on full easing mode and with yet more stimulus to come, it’s no wonder risky assets are surging ever higher.
Europe looking to brighter times
There is even growing confidence in the Eurozone recovery, although the Q1 GDP data out today will most likely show a technical recession. Confidence figures this week from across the continent went through the roof and it’s significant that the previously hurting services sector is now also in expansion. With the vaccine rollout cranking up and the EU Recovery Fund getting approval from the German courts, the euro is enjoying its fourth week of gains versus the mighty dollar.
EUR/USD has had a relatively smooth journey higher, after touching 1.17 at the end of last month and is on track for its biggest monthly gains in nine months.
May is typically a decent month for the greenback seasonally so a pause is quite possible. But the uptrend is strong and we could see more upside surprises in economic data out of the region in the coming weeks.
Oil closing in on highs
Amongst the rip-roaring agricultural commodities and Copper hitting the magical $10,000 mark, oil has quietly been making headway as well. The weekly EIA report showed some continued positive signals regarding US demand, and while there are still concerns over the surge in Covid-19 cases in India, Europe at least seems to be heading in the right direction with summer travel now firmly on the cards too.
Since getting close to $60 towards the end of March, prices tracked sideways before rising steadily in the second week of this month.
The 50-day SMA has acted a solid support and the bulls took out this month’s high yesterday as momentum looks good for an attempt at the March highs above $71.
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