Everyone was talking about the Turkish lira today.
The emerging-market currency bled profusely after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked the country’s central bank chief on Saturday…two days after interest rates were hiked by 200 basis points.
It tumbled as much as 14% against the dollar and was battered by G10, Asian and Emerging market currencies.
This bombshell development may hit the central bank’s credibility, raise more questions around independence and fuel uncertainty.
Moving away from the unloved Lira, this week’s technical outlook will focus on longer-term trends found on higher timeframes across G10 currencies.
Euro to resume downtrend?
After securing a weekly close below 1.2000, the EURUSD has been trapped within a 150-pip range.
The weekly trend certainly favours bears as there have been constantly lower lows and lower highs. However, the 1.1850 level remains a tough support level to crack. Prices are trading below the 20-week simple moving average but the MACD remains above 0. If the current rebound towards the 1.2000 level proves fruitless for bulls, this could offer another opportunity for bears to attack 1.1800 and even lower.
GBPUSD set for a trend change?
Pound bulls could be running on empty.
Over the past few weeks, the GBPUSD has struggled to push back above the 1.4000 resistance level. Although the trend is bullish on the weekly timeframe, a solid weekly close below the 1.3800 higher low could change the outlook. According to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), prices are already flirting near overbought levels. Should 1.3800 capitulate to the pressure, the next key level of interest may be found at 1.3570.
AUD bulls still in the game
It feels like the AUDUSD is waiting for something. The trend is certainly bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. However, the currency remains trapped in a 300 pip range with support at 0.7600 and resistance at 0.7900. A solid breakout above the 0.7900 level may open the doors towards 0.8006 and possibly higher. Bulls remain in the game as long as 0.7600 proves to be reliable support.
Let’s not forget about the Dollar…
The weekly close above the 91.50 level could encourage a move higher towards 93.40. However, if this proves to be another dead cat bounce…bears could make an unwelcome return. A solid weekly close below 91.50 may open the doors towards 90.00 and 89.00, respectively.
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