Garis Masa Berita Forex

Isnin, September 28, 2020

AUD/USD allows for a minor rebound on Monday ahead of as slide to the 200-day ma at 0.6774, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at

AUD/USD allows for a minor rebound on Monday ahead of as slide to the 200-day ma at 0.6774, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports. In fact, the aussie is currently trading at 0.7050, up 0.30% on the day, after falling by nearly 0.30% on Friday to 0.7006 – its sixth straight consecutive decline.  Key quotes “AUD/USD sold off sharply last week and starts this week still under pressure and we look for a slide to the 0.6964, the 23.6% retracement. There is scope for this to extend towards the 200-day ma, the February high and mid-June low at 0.6778/74, which is expected to hold the initial test.” “Currently, intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting that rallies are likely to remain capped by 0.7135 level and contained by the 0.7290 minor resistance line.”   

The gain in the USD/JPY last week was modest, it remained within the narrow down-channel from July and the wider trend from March but the dollar reviv

The gain in the USD/JPY last week was modest, it remained within the narrow down-channel from July and the wider trend from March but the dollar revival shows that the twin specters of the pandemic and economic collapse are never far from traders’ minds. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, spots a stubborn resistance at the 106 level and expects the pair to trade within the 105-106.50 range in the week ahead. Key quotes “Though the Japanese yen is often considered a safety currency in its own right the circumstances that foster the response tend to be localized. If China had a resurgence of the virus the yen would respond forcefully. Global, European and American concerns focus on the dollar, the yen partakes but is not the main recipient of flows, with its safety status limiting the dollar’s gain to less than that of other pairs.” “Technically the near channel top at 106 coincides with resistance at the same level and is backstopped by another weak line at 106.25.” “The USD/JPY momentum is higher after the sharp reversal this week but it is unlikely to penetrate as far as 107.00 unless there is a more concerted general move to the dollar.”   “The overall trend contained in the six-month old channel remains lower even though the economic logic for that direction is weak.”  “Given the countering tendencies in the pair sideways movement between 105 and 106.50 is the most likely prognosis for the week ahead.” “A break of 106 and particularly 106.50 would possibly propel the USD/JPY to the two-month high of 107 if the upper border of the descending channel were insufficient to block progress.”   

The UK Junior Health Minister, Helen Whately said on Monday, they do not want to tighten the restrictions announced last week. However, they would kee

The UK Junior Health Minister, Helen Whately said on Monday, they do not want to tighten the restrictions announced last week. However, they would keep a close eye on the coronavirus infection rate in the Kingdom, she added. This comes after the Times reported early Monday, the UK Ministers are preparing to enforce total social lockdown across much of Northern Britain and potentially London.   more to come ...

Gold (XAU/USD) has started out a critical week on a cautious note, ranging within a striking distance of the two-month lows of $1849, as the yellow me

Gold (XAU/USD) has started out a critical week on a cautious note, ranging within a striking distance of the two-month lows of $1849, as the yellow metal’s bearish bias remains intact ahead of a big week, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. Key quotes “The Asian market mood remains buoyed by the renewed optimism on the Chinese economic recovery after industrial profits in the world’s second-largest economy rose for the fourth straight month. Further, uncertainty over the US political scenario, with the election debate in focus this week, and the pre-Nonfarm Payrolls release anxiety keep the dollar bulls unnerved.” “Amid a light data docket in the day ahead, the risk sentiment and US dollar dynamics will continue to play out, in the face of the looming coronavirus risks and US fiscal stimulus uncertainty.” “Gold is challenging the critical barrier at $1863 on the road to recovery. That level is the confluence of the 21 and 50-hourly Simple Moving Averages (HMA). Although the bulls are likely to have little luck in their attempt, as the short-term averages have charted a bearish crossover. The 21-HMA is cutting the 50-HMA from above, suggesting the recovery attempts are likely to fade out, opening doors for fresh declines.” “To the downside, the two-month lows of $1849 will be threatened, below which the powerful 100-day Simple Moving Average (DMA) at $1847 will be on the sellers’ radar. All in all, the path of least resistance is to the downside.”  

Russia’s Novak: There are risks of second COVID-19 wave more to come ...

Russia’s Novak: There are risks of second COVID-19 wave   more to come ...

Following a steady start to a new week in Asia, Gold (XAU/USD) is seeing a bit of selling in early Asia, as the bears look to test the two-month lows

Gold’s decline resumes amid upbeat market mood, USD bounce. Solid Chinese data, US stimulus hopes lift the risk sentiment. Bears target 100-DMA at $1847 as gold remains vulnerable. Following a steady start to a new week in Asia, Gold (XAU/USD) is seeing a bit of selling in early Asia, as the bears look to test the two-month lows of $1849. The spot closed last week below the August month low of $1863, triggering an alarm for the XAU bulls. The yellow metal remains at the mercy of the US dollar dynamics amid plenty of economic and political risks looming, in the face of the coronavirus resurgence. At the time of writing, gold trades at $1857, reversing a brief dip from daily lows of $1856. The US dollar bulls appear to have regained control following Friday’s pull back from two-month lows. The greenback extended the retreat in Asia, courtesy of the risk-on mood triggered by the optimism on the Chinese economic recovery, especially after the world’s second-biggest economy reported a rise in the industrial profits for the fourth straight month. Additionally, expectations that the US fiscal stimulus talks could likely restart this week also dull the dollar’s attractiveness as a safe-haven. Markets also reposition themselves heading into the first US Presidential election debate and critical Non-Farm Payrolls release. Gold: Technical outlook Gold’s hourly chart shows that it wavers within a pennant so far this Monday, challenging the critical barrier at $1863 on the road to recovery. That level is the confluence of the 21 and 50-hourly Simple Moving Averages (HMA). To the downside, the two-month lows of $1949 will be threatened, below which the powerful 100-day Simple Moving Average (DMA) at $1847 will be on the sellers’ radar. All in all, the path of least resistance is to the downside. Gold Additional levels  

During the early Monday, the Financial Times (FT) came out with the news piece suggesting the European Union (EU) policymakers’ struggle to practise t

During the early Monday, the Financial Times (FT) came out with the news piece suggesting the European Union (EU) policymakers’ struggle to practise the recovery fund deal agreed two months back. Key quotes The German EU presidency has urged (Members of the European Parliament) MEPs to quit stalling, while MEPs accused the council of blackmailing them.  EU capitals want to seal an agreement with the parliament by the middle of October to allow member states plenty of time to ratify the recovery fund mechanics in their legislatures. Last week several member states — including the Dutch — warned they were not prepared to push ratification of the recovery fund through their national parliaments until they see a deal struck between the EU council and legislature. Market implications Following the news, the EUR/USD fizzles the early-Asian recovery moves from 1.1615 to 1.1640. While portraying the same, the pair sellers are currently probing 1.1630 but the European stock futures stay positive amid cautious optimism in the global markets.

Norway Retail Sales below expectations (0.4%) in August: Actual (-4.9%)

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), alternates gains with losses around the 94.50 region at the beginning of the week. US Dollar Ind

DXY navigates around the 94.50 region on Monday.Focus remains on the pandemic, economic recovery, politics.Dallas Fed index, Fedspeak next on tap in the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), alternates gains with losses around the 94.50 region at the beginning of the week. US Dollar Index looks to politics, data The index is looking to extend the rally and keeps flirting with the 6-month resistance line in the 94.50/60 band at the beginning of the week. A breakout of this area should leave the dollar exposed to further gains in the short-term horizon. Furthermore, risk appetite trends navigate without a clear direction on Monday, with most assets trading within a rangebound mood around last Friday’s closing levels. In the US data space, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index is due later along with the speech by Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester (voter, hawkish). The main event, however, will be on the US monthly labour market report towards the end of the week. Investors will also closely follow the first presidential debate between President Trump and Democrat nominee Joe Biden on Tuesday, all against the still uncertain US political scenario. What to look for around USD The dollar tries to keep the buying bias unchanged on Monday, although further gains need to leave behind the 94.50/60 band, where sits a key resistance line. The ongoing bullish move in DXY is (still) seen as temporary, however, as the underlying sentiment towards the greenback stays cautious-to-bearish. This view is reinforced by the “lower for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve, hopes of a strong recovery in the global economy, the negative position in the speculative community and political uncertainty ahead of the November elections and over further monetary/fiscal stimulus. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is retreating 0.09% at 94.50 and faces the next support at 92.70 (weekly low Sep.10) seconded by 91.92 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 91.75 (2020 low Sep.1). On the flip side, a break above 94.74 (monthly high Sep.25) would open the door to 95.48 (100-day SMA) and finally 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop).

EUR/JPY sellers attack 122.50, down 0.24% intraday, while heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Euro cross tests 100-day SMA amid b

EUR/JPY extends Friday’s losses to refresh multi-day low under 123.00.Bearish MACD keeps the sellers hopeful, bulls need to cross Wednesday’s high for fresh entries.EUR/JPY sellers attack 122.50, down 0.24% intraday, while heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Euro cross tests 100-day SMA amid bearish MACD. As a result, further weakness of EUR/JPY depends upon a daily close below the 100-day SMA level of 122.50, a break of which will aim for the early-July high near 122.00. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s downside past-122.00 will be challenged 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of May-September upside, respectively around 120.90 and 120.75. Meanwhile, the September 23 high of 123.20 offers immediate resistance to EUR/JPY traders. Though, any further upside beyond 123.20 will be probed by the 124.40/45 region comprising multiple highs and lows marked since June. EUR/JPY daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Here is what you need to know on Monday, September 28: The US dollar extended Friday’s pull back from two-month highs, undermined by the improved risk

Here is what you need to know on Monday, September 28: The US dollar extended Friday’s pull back from two-month highs, undermined by the improved risk sentiment amid optimism over the US fiscal stimulus and China’s economic recovery. China’s industrial profits rose for the fourth straight month, suggesting the economic rebound is regaining momentum. Meanwhile, late Friday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi agreed to restart formal talks on a new coronavirus fiscal aid. Further, investors refrained from placing fresh long bets on the greenback, as the focus shifts to the first US Presidential election debate this Wednesday. The Asian markets traded mostly higher while the US stock futures extended its winning streak into the third day on Monday.   Among other developments, the US District Court halts the Trump administration’s ban on TikTok downloads while US President Donald Trump dismissed the NY Times report as fake news. The US daily reported that Trump’s taxes show chronic losses and years of income tax avoidance. Within the G10 fx basked, AUD/USD recaptured 0.7050, having extended the bounce from Friday’s lows amid the upbeat market mood. The kiwi also followed suit and regained 0.6550. New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern said that a travel bubble with some of the Australian states could restart before Christmas. USD/JPY dropped back below 105.50, as the demand for the yen returned amid hopes of additional stimulus from Japan and subdued Treasury yields.  EUR/USD stalled its decline while holding steady above 1.1600. The bearish bias, however, remains intact, as the shared currency will continue to face the hear from the virus surge and restrictions in different Euro area economies. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers’ concerns on the euro strength could weigh on the currency. All eyes on President Christine Lagarde’s speech due later on Monday.GBP/USD bounced-back towards 1.2800 on renewed Brexit optimism. British diplomats are optimistic about reaching a post-Brexit transition trade deal with the European Union (EU).  The UK Cabinet Minister Michel Gove visits Brussels ahead of the ninth round of talks this Tuesday, the final stage of Brexit trade negotiations.Gold traded listless around $1860 ahead of the election debate and US payrolls release. WTI dropped 1$, below the $40 mark amid oil demand recovery concerns.Cryptocurrencies’ broke the weekend’s consolidation to the upside, with Bitcoin challenging $11K.

Asian shares take clues from China and the US catalysts while trimming the monthly losses ahead of Monday’s European session. To portray the same, the

Asian equities print mild gains as hopes of virus vaccine, American stimulus confront worsening pandemic.Chinese frontiers pleased the buyers with gap-up opening after weekend news marked upbeat Industrial Profits.US Presidential Election debate, Brexit and crucial data to look for ahead.Asian shares take clues from China and the US catalysts while trimming the monthly losses ahead of Monday’s European session. To portray the same, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rises 0.65% intraday whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 adds near 0.70% as we write. It should be noted that the MSCI gauge is up for snapping the previous three-month rally amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes. The weekend update from Johnson and Johnson propelled the vaccine hopes and so does China’s industrial firms’ profits that grew for the fourth month in a row. Also helping the mood were updates that the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a bit optimistic for the aid package discussion as well as the District Court of Columbia’s injunction against the Trump administration’s previous order to ban TikTok downloads starting from September 28. To challenge the bulls, mixed headlines concerning the Brexit and emerging market currencies’ performance play their respective roles. Australia’s ASX 200 and New Zealand’s NZX 50 seems to trim the early-day gains amid a lack of major data/events. News that China will hold military exercises in the southern Yellow Sea from Monday until Wednesday is likely waning the optimism off-late. On the contrary, South Korea’s KOSPI becomes the regional leader with a 1.25% run-up, followed by 1.15% gains of India’s BSE Sensex and around 1.0% addition to the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng quotes. It should also be noted that the S&P 500 Futures add around 0.70% by the time of press and the US 10-year Treasury yields are little changed near 0.66% as we write. While Monday offers no major data/events, speculations concerning the debate between American President Donald Trump and his rival Joe Biden will occupy the headlines going forward. Also in the spotlight will be Brexit negotiations and chatters concerning the much-awaited COVID-19 aid package from America. Also, China’s official PMI and the US employment data for September are other extra indicators to watch.

Cable might attempt a consolidative range ahead of potential extra downside in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 2

Cable might attempt a consolidative range ahead of potential extra downside in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘momentum indicators are turning ‘neutral and expected GBP to ‘trade sideways within a 1.2700/1.2800 range’. GBP subsequently traded within a wider range than expected (1.2688/1.2805) before closing little changed at 1.2741 (-0.03%). The price action offers no fresh clues and GBP could continue to trade sideways for today, expected to be within a 1.2700/1.2810.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (23 Sep, spot at 1.2745), we highlighted that ‘downward momentum has improved considerably and GBP could weaken to further to 1.2650’. GBP subsequently dropped to a low of 1.2676 but it has not been able to make further headways on the downside. Shorter-term momentum is beginning to ease and this could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. As long as the ‘key resistance’ at 1.2830 is not taken out, another down-leg towards 1.2650 is still a distinct possibility.”

Open interest in Gold futures markets shrunk by nearly 1.6K contracts on Friday, clinching the second drop in a row in light of preliminary figures fr

Open interest in Gold futures markets shrunk by nearly 1.6K contracts on Friday, clinching the second drop in a row in light of preliminary figures from CME Group. Volume, in the same line, went down for the second consecutive day, now by almost 127K contracts. Gold still supported by the 100-day SMA Prices of the ounce troy of the yellow metal are attempting a consolidative range just above the 100-day SMA, today around $1,846. Friday’s negative price action in gold amidst diminishing open interest and volume leaves the scenario of further consolidation unchanged, at least in the very near-term.

Japan Coincident Index meets forecasts (76.2) in July

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could attempt to break below the 1.1600 support. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for the ‘

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could attempt to break below the 1.1600 support. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for the ‘rebound in EUR to extend higher’ was wrong as it dropped to a low of 1.1611 before closing on a soft note at 1.1630 (-0.36%). Despite the relatively rapid decline, downward momentum has not improved by much. From here, there is room for EUR to probe the 1.1600 support but in view of the lackluster momentum, a sustained decline below this level is unlikely (next support at 1.1565). Resistance is at 1.1660 followed by 1.1685.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The negative phase in EUR that started more than a week ago is still intact. In our latest update from last Friday (25 Sep, spot at 1.1675), we held the view that the ‘outlook for EUR remains weak but the next support at 1.1600 may not come into the picture so soon’. While EUR subsequently dropped to a low of 1.1611, the decline appears to be running ahead of itself. From here, EUR could dip below 1.1600 but 1.1565 is expected to offer formidable support. All in, only a break of 1.1720 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.1760) would indicate that the negative phase has run its course.”

Japan Leading Economic Index meets forecasts (86.9) in July

USD/INR drops to 73.59, down 0.15% intraday, during the initial Indian session on Monday. In doing so, the pair defies Friday’s Doji candlestick on th

USD/INR eases from the intraday high of 73.69.200-day SMA probes candlestick suggesting another run-up to one-month high.Fresh selling can wait for breaking Friday’s low.USD/INR drops to 73.59, down 0.15% intraday, during the initial Indian session on Monday. In doing so, the pair defies Friday’s Doji candlestick on the daily chart that suggests a bullish move following the Thursday’s pullback from the monthly high. However, the bears need a clear break of Friday’s low of 73.58 to defy the bullish candlestick formation and attack an upward sloping trend line from September 01, at 73.41. Should USD/INR sellers conquer 73.41 on a daily closing, the September 18 low of 73.20 can offer an intermediate drop towards the 73.00 round-figures and then to the monthly bottom surrounding 72.75. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the 200-day EMA level of 73.82 needs to cross the 74.02 level, comprising the current month’s peak, to regain the buyers’ confidence. In that case, the USD/INR bulls may target the August 25 top close to 74.50 during further upside. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

A travel bubble between New Zealand and some of the Australian state could probably resume before the year-end, Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern sai

A travel bubble between New Zealand and some of the Australian state could probably resume before the year-end, Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern said in an interview with state broadcaster TVNZ on Monday.   more to come ...

GBP/USD keeps the early-Asian recovery, up 0.18% intraday near 1.2770, while heading into Monday’s London open. The Cable benefits from the weekend he

GBP/USD probes the upper end of 1.2772/51 trading range.British diplomats are positive on reaching a trade deal, Michel Gove heads to Brussels ahead of Tuesday’s talks.UK prepares for a strict social lockdown as backlash against 10:00 PM curfew surged.BOE policymaker defends negative rates, no-deal Brexit can result in one million job losses.GBP/USD keeps the early-Asian recovery, up 0.18% intraday near 1.2770, while heading into Monday’s London open. The Cable benefits from the weekend headlines suggesting brighter odds of success for the key Brexit talks. Though, the coronavirus (COVID-19) and mixed political clues keep the bulls chained ahead of the crucial week comprising trade negotiations and UK GDP. While the divorce talks will start from Tuesday, British Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove’s visit to Brussels makes the day important amid a light calendar. Optimism surrounding Frost and Company… Although the Internal Market Bill (IMB) has ripped off the latest round of Brexit talks, The Daily Mail said UK’s Negotiator Lord Frost’s team is reported to have privately said: “There will be a deal.” Also on the positive side is head of the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) head, Carolyn Fairbairn who said that a trade deal "can and must be made." On the other hand, European Union’s (EU) Brexit diplomat Michel Barnier is reported to be the neutral head of the talks but leaders from France and Ireland are flashing red signals over the success of this week’s discussion in Brussels. The cost of losing a trade deal is estimated, by the Financial Times, as near 1.0 million British jobs whereas a further burden on the economy that is yet to overcome the COVID-19 woes seems to push the BOE policymakers to defend the negative rate policies. Even so, the Centre for Brexit Policy urged Prime Minister Boris Johnson to tear up his divorce deal with the EU, per Reuters. Elsewhere, the Tory diplomats are working hard to avoid isolation cheats and stave off the lines near pubs, restaurants around 10:00 PM curfew. As a result, The Times conveyed the odds of the total social lockdown. It’s worth mentioning that the US District Court of Columbia’s halt to the Trump administration’s ban on TikTok download joined vaccine hopes to keep the risk-tone sentiment positive at the week’s start. Though, a lack of major data/events lets the traders guessing. Against this backdrop, Futures in the UK and the US are mildly positive while the Asia-Pacific shares print gains. Looking forward, updates from Gove’s visit to the European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic will be critical amid an absence of any major catalysts scheduled for publishing. Technical analysis A falling trend line from September 01, at 1.2785 now, restricts the pair’s immediate upside ahead of 1.2870/75 resistance. Meanwhile, the monthly low around 1.2675 can question GBP/USD bears.  

EUR/USD is taking a breather following last week's sharp drop. The dollar is weakening with the US stock index futures seemingly cheering the upbeat C

EUR/USD's sell-off pauses as S&P 500 futures rise. China's Industrial Profits rose for the fourth straight month in August. ECB's Lagarde may play spoilsport by expressing concerns regarding the euro's strength. EUR/USD is taking a breather following last week's sharp drop. The dollar is weakening with the US stock index futures seemingly cheering the upbeat China data released over the weekend.  Up 20 pips  The pair fell by nearly 1.8% to 1.1615 last week to register its biggest single-week percentage decline since March.  At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1635, having put in a low of 1.1615 in early Asia. The S&P 500 futures are up over 0.30%, and the Asian indices are flashing green, keeping the safe-haven US dollar under pressure.  China's industrial profits grew for a fourth-consecutive month in August due to a rebound in commodity prices and equipment manufacturing, the data published on Saturday showed.  The currency pair may extend gains if the European stocks open the day on a positive note. However, the gains will likely be reversed if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde expresses concern regarding the euro's strength during her speech at 13:45 GMT.  EUR/USD advanced from 1.0636 to 1.2011 in the five months to August. The sharp appreciation has recently revived disinflation fears at the ECB.  ECB's Visco said Sunday that the recent strengthening of the euro is worrying because it places further downward pressure on prices, and would require the European Central Bank to intervene if that jeopardizes price stability.  Lagarde might echo Visco's stance, in which case, the FX desks would offer euros irrespective of the strength in the equity markets.  Apart from equities and Lagarde's speech, the pair may take cues from the Dallas Fed Manufacturing index scheduled for release during the North American trading hours.  Technical levels    

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report released Friday, gold speculators and hedge funds trimmed their bullish net positions to the lowes

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report released Friday, gold speculators and hedge funds trimmed their bullish net positions to the lowest level since June during the week ended Sept. 22. The net position was 21,060 contracts – down 21,917 net contracts from the preceding week's tally of 240,977 contracts.  Last week, the yellow metal fell by 4.6% to register its biggest weekly percentage decline since March., as the dollar's broad-based recover rally gathered pace on renewed coronavirus fears, political uncertainty in the US.  At press time, the metal is trading at $1,860 per ounce.

EUR/GBP prints mild losses of 0.12% while staying depressed around 0.9110 during the pre-European trading on Monday. While a triangle formation since

EUR/GBP struggles to keep recovery moves from 0.9100, drops for the fourth day in a row.MACD turns bearish for the first time in three weeks.Short-term symmetrical triangle restricts immediate moves.EUR/GBP prints mild losses of 0.12% while staying depressed around 0.9110 during the pre-European trading on Monday. While a triangle formation since September 09 questions the pair’s immediate moves, bearish MACD signals favor the sellers. As a result, a daily closing below the triangle’s support line, currently around 0.9100 becomes necessary to confirm the further weakness of EUR/GBP. Following that, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the early month’s upside, respectively around 0.9075 and 0.9025, could please the bears ahead of 0.8930 and the monthly low of 0.8866. In a case where EUR/GBP keeps its daily closing beyond the 21-day EMA level of 0.91118, intraday buyers may aim for 0.9145/50 resistances. However, a falling trend line from September 11, at 0.9190 now, could keep the bulls chained afterward. EUR/GBP daily chart Trend: Bearish  

The government will not hesitate to deploy additional economic measures if needed, said the new Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato in a daily brief

The government will not hesitate to deploy additional economic measures if needed, said the new Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kato in a daily briefing on Monday.   more to come ...

Vitol, the world's biggest independent oil trader, sees little scope for oil rally in the fourth quarter as global demand is slowing due to new corona

Vitol, the world's biggest independent oil trader, sees little scope for oil rally in the fourth quarter as global demand is slowing due to new coronavirus-related restrictions, according to Bloomberg.  "The conventional wisdom going into the fourth quarter was that things were going to improve," Vitol Group executive committee member Chris Bake said during a conference call hosted by Dubai consultant Gulf Intelligence, and added that, "it doesn't feel like we have a huge catalyst and demand is more uncertain." Several European nations have recently reimposed restrictions on travel and social gathering due to a resurgence of coronavirus cases across the continent.   Brent oil is currently trading near $40, having declined from $43.78 to $36.13 in the nine trading days to Sept. 8.

NZD/USD is pushing against the 5-day simple moving average (SMA) hurdle at 0.6564, having picked up a bid 0.6541 early Monday. The uptick could be ass

NZD/USD prints gain to test key SMA hurdle. Daily chart shows a double top bearish reversal pattern. NZD/USD is pushing against the 5-day simple moving average (SMA) hurdle at 0.6564, having picked up a bid 0.6541 early Monday.  The uptick could be associated with the gains in the US stock index futures and the dollar's broad-based moderate losses.  However, the bias remains bearish, with the pair trading well below 0.6601 – the double top neckline breached to the downside on Sept. 23. Also, the 14-day relative strength index continues to report bearish conditions with a below-50 print. The 10-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are about to produce a bearish crossover.  The support is located at 0.6507 (100-day SMA) and 0.6489 (Aug. 20 low), and resistances are seen at 0.6601 and 0.6638 (50-day SMA).  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to maintain its monetary policy except for any external emergency, the Economic Information Daily reported

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to maintain its monetary policy except for any external emergency, the Economic Information Daily reported on Monday, citing Wang Qing, the Chief Analyst at Golden Credit Rating. Key quotes “China's monetary policy will remain stable and the PBOC is unlikely to cut banks' reserve requirement ratios or interest rates barring a major external shock.” “The PBOC may choose to inject medium and long-term liquidity by rolling over the matured MLFs in excess of the required amount.” Market reaction developing story ...

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said, in remarks at the G20 Energy Ministers virtual meet

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said, in remarks at the G20 Energy Ministers virtual meeting, the OECD commercial oil stocks could stay well above the five-year average in the third quarter of this year, courtesy of a potential market balance. Key quotes “The expected supply and demand balance would result in OECD commercial stocks standing well above the latest five-year average in Q3/2020.” “However, stocks would then fall in the fourth quarter 2020, to stand around 123 million barrels above the latest five-year average.”

The price action the GBP/JPY has corrected a daily impulse and bears are now looking for the fading opportunity. The 4-hour time frame offers a critic

GBP/JPY bears are liming up for entry below near tern support structure. The weekly wick presents a swing trading opportunity. The price action the GBP/JPY has corrected a daily impulse and bears are now looking for the fading opportunity.  The 4-hour time frame offers a critical support structure that, if broken and retested, will offer a high probability trade set up to the downside. The following is a top-down analysis starting with the monthly chart, as follows: Monthly chart The price is coiled into a wedge and there is strong momentum in the monthly bearish candle.  The wick represents and opportunity  This wick is simply a daily correction that could be sold into. Fibonacci retracements are deep enough The correction is significant enough to move down to a 4-hour time frame and monitor the price action for an entry opportunity.  4-hour setup A sell limit can be placed if the price breaks the support stricture.  On the other hand, looking to the hourly time frame, GBP/JPY Price Analysis: 200-HMA guards immediate upside below 135.00, there is a near term risk that this set up will take some time if the 200-hour moving average gives out. 

China's economic rebound from the coronavirus crash showed signs of losing steam in early September due to worsening business confidence, a weaker sto

China's economic rebound from the coronavirus crash showed signs of losing steam in early September due to worsening business confidence, a weaker stock market, according to Bloomberg.  Key points An index comprising eight indicators tracked by Bloomberg has slipped into contraction this month, compared to accelerated expansion in August. New home sales slowed in the first three weeks of September reversing August's rise.  Small-business confidence eased marginally after rising for six straight months. State-owned enterprises' (SME) new orders slowed in September, and the pace of expansion of banks' credit to SMEs also eased.  The picture would become clearer with the release of the September NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMI indices later this week. 

USD/CHF eases from the day’s high to 0.9289 during early Monday. Sustained trading beyond August month’s peak portrays the pair’s ability to challenge

USD/CHF fizzles upside momentum while easing from intraday high of 0.9293.100-day EMA, a falling trend line from June 11 probe buyers.Sellers may look for entries below August high.USD/CHF eases from the day’s high to 0.9289 during early Monday. Sustained trading beyond August month’s peak portrays the pair’s ability to challenge a confluence of 100-day EMA and a 15-week-old resistance line. However, overbought RSI conditions question the bulls’ ability to extend the six-day winning-streak any longer than 0.9305. It should additionally be noted that the USD/CHF buyers may have to cross the early July month’s low near 0.9365 and June month’s bottom of 0.9376 to mark their strength. In doing so, the July high of 0.9467 will be in the spotlight before the key Fibonacci retracements of March-August downside. Meanwhile, sellers may ways for entries unless the quote drops below the August month’s top surrounding 0.9240. The September 08 high of 0.9200 and the monthly low close to 0.9050 are extra strong supports for USD/CHF sellers to watch past-0.9240. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The latest Reuters poll of over 100 fixed-income strategists showed that an era of negative real yields on major sovereign debt is here to stay, with

The latest Reuters poll of over 100 fixed-income strategists showed that an era of negative real yields on major sovereign debt is here to stay, with the expectations for positive returns not on the table are a distant dream. Key findings   “More than three-quarters of strategists, or 57 of 75 with a view, said the most likely path for sovereign yields would be to stay around current levels or be range-bound - not very far from this year’s lows and well below their pre-COVID-19 rates.” “The US 10-year Treasury yield was forecast to rise over 25 basis points to 0.93% in a year, about half the expected average inflation rate, suggesting negative real returns over the coming year.” “Nearly 80% of strategists, or 35 of 45 with a view, said the Fed’s promise of near-zero interest rates for several years would keep major government bond yields “low. Only about 20% of respondents said it would “not stop them from drifting higher.” “But over 50% of 37 strategists with a view said emerging economies’ government debt was most at risk of a sell-off over the coming year.” Related readsImplied volatility in emerging market currencies and their G7 peers is widest since June – BloombergCoronavirus vaccine needed to lift bond yields – BoFA survey 

The Aussie dollar bears are taking a breather on Monday, allowing a bounce in AUD/USD, with an influential economist pushing out his rate cut forecast

AUD/USD ticks higher as Westpac pushes out the RBA rate cut forecast. The US stock index futures rise, lending support to the AUD.The Aussie dollar bears are taking a breather on Monday, allowing a bounce in AUD/USD, with an influential economist pushing out his rate cut forecast to November from October.  The currency pair is currently trading at 0.7050, representing a 0.40% gain on the day. The pair fell by nearly 0.30% on Friday to 0.7006 – its sixth straight consecutive decline.  RBA to cut rates in November Westpac, one of the big four Australian banks, expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the overnight cash rate (benchmark interest rate) to a new record low of 0.1% from the current 0.25% in November.  Until last week, Westpac's economist Bill Evans was confident that the rate cut would happen at the Oct. 6 meeting.  The central bank is also expected to reduce the three-year bond yield target to 0.1% from 0.25%, the Term Funding Facility rate to 0.1% and the RBA rate on Exchange Settlement balances to 0.01%. Apart from Westpac's decision to push out the rate cut forecast, the 0.30 gain in the S&P 500 futures could be drawing bids for the AUD.  Significant gains, however, may remain elusive, courtesy of the resurgence of coronavirus in Europe and caution ahead of the first debate between the US President Donald Trump and rival Joe Biden on Tuesday.  Technical levels  

S&P 500 Futures stay bid around 3,298, up 0.35% intraday, during the initial hour Tokyo open on Monday. In doing so, the risk barometer keeps the reco

S&P 500 Futures keep Thursday’s recovery moves from 3,198 amid mixed risk catalysts.US District Court halts Trump administration’s ban on TikTok downloads, stimulus hopes gain momentum.Coronavirus fans fears of major lockdowns in the UK and Europe, Brexit also probe the optimists.China’s off and no major data/events restrict market moves.S&P 500 Futures stay bid around 3,298, up 0.35% intraday, during the initial hour Tokyo open on Monday. In doing so, the risk barometer keeps the recovery moves from the late July lows amid hopes of the US stimulus and a pause to the Sino-American, for now. However, the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes, coupled with the fears of hard Brexit, question optimists. The US District Court of Columbia granted a nationwide preliminary injunction against the Trump administration’s previous order to ban TikTok downloads starting from September 28. The news pushes Global Times Editor Hu Xijin to welcome the ruling while also tweeting, “the US government is in a hysterical state and can hardly be calmed down with a sedative.” Also acting as a market positive could be the weekend comments from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who cited Democratic preparations for another package to renew hopes of American stimulus to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19). Furthermore, Confederation of British Industry (CBI) head Carolyn Fairbairn is optimistic about the Brexit trade deal ahead of the ninth round of talks while Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin stands on the other end. Additionally, the upbeat results of Johnson and Johnson’s fourth trail of the virus vaccine also help to build the market mood. Talking about risk-negative headlines, the COVID-19 resurgence in the UK and Europe is turning wild off-late and is pushing the British government to prepare for strict national restrictions over socializing.  Also joining the line are the light calendar and uncertainty over the US Election, up from November 03, wherein both the leading contestants, namely the current President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, have a small margin over the chances of victory. Other than the S&P 500 Futures, stocks in Asia-Pacific and the US 10-year Treasury yields also portray mildly risk-on sentiment. Looking forward, China is on holiday and the economic calendar doesn’t carry any major data/events, which in turn can keep the global markets mostly choppy. However, the US dollar may remain on the upper hand unless any risk-positive news erupts.

In its latest assessment of commodity exports and prices, the Australian government offered an upbeat outlook on iron-ore prices. Key takeaways “Also

In its latest assessment of commodity exports and prices, the Australian government offered an upbeat outlook on iron-ore prices. Key takeaways “Also expects Australia to become the world's largest gold producer. Exports of commodities expected to be upwards of 250bn AUD in the year ahead.” 'Significant growth in Brazilian short-term supply remains unlikely due to the wider problems of COVID-19 across the Brazilian economy. The main risk to prices is thus on the demand side.” “Iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.”

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.8252 versus Friday's fix at 6.8121.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.8252 versus Friday's fix at 6.8121.

Gold looks set to extend its recent decline to $1,836 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March to August rally – as crucial technical indicators hav

Gold's weekly chart momentum studies have turned bearish. The metal risks falling to key support at $1,836. Gold looks set to extend its recent decline to $1,836 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March to August rally – as crucial technical indicators have rolled over in favor of the bears.  The weekly chart MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, is now printing a deeper bar below the zero line, a sign of the strengthening of the downward momentum.  The 5- and 10-week simple moving averages have produced a negative crossover.  Further, last week's bearish marubozu candle shows bearish sentiment is quite strong.  As such, a drop to support at $1,836 looks likely. A close above the last week's high of 1,966 is needed to invalidate the bearish outlook.  At press time, gold is trading largely unchanged on the day at $1860 per ounce. Prices fell by over 4% last week as the US dollar's broad-based recovery rally gathered pace.  Weekly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

USD/JPY is starting out the week on the offer with repeated failures through the critical resistance around the mid-point of the 105 area. There are a

USD/JPY bulls struggle to make headway above critical support.106 is key on the upside, although the USD could well start to give back some ground. USD/JPY is starting out the week on the offer with repeated failures through the critical resistance around the mid-point of the 105 area.  There are a number of factors in play from a fundamental point of view, but the technician would argue that it is too even a playing field in that respect. The technical analysis below offers a clearer picture at this juncture.  Meanwhile, the run-up to the US elections, by USD/JPY's track record, would play into the bear's hands, although concerns over the coronavirus will balance out the scales, supporting the bullish case for the greenback.  As it stands, both currencies can be argued to offer safe haven qualities, strongly correlated to the performance of global equities. From a near-term perspective, USD/JPY rose from 105.25 to 105.70 on Friday with little fresh news in the way of a catalyst for the end of the week.  The ongoing stimulus sentiment, coronavirus updates and various data inputs will be in the driving seat for the week ahead. However, there is little scheduled that is likely to shift the pair in a meaningful direction one way or the other, perhaps until the end of the week's Nonfarm Payrolls.  ''Payrolls probably rose fairly strongly by pre-COVID standards, but with the pace slowing again, and the level still down around 11mn since February'', analysts at TD Securities explained.  We are assuming a 200k decline in government payrolls, due largely to weak education hiring at the start of the school year. More positively, the initial manufacturing survey data for September point to another solid ISM reading. USD/JPY technical analysis From a technical standpoint, the price is giving the clearest possible outcomes at this juncture. We have seen the makings of a fakeout on the weekly chart as follows: However, last week's close was hardly convincing on the bid back above stricture and the bulls still have their work cut out.  On the daily chart above, the resistance now turned back to support is a critical level and the market is bearish below it, while neutral above it.  Only until the bulls get a firm grip above 106 the figure will things start to become clearer.  A sizeable rebound could be in order above 106. Indeed, the DXY has perked-up in recent weeks. The reverse head and shoulders is a compelling pattern on the higher time frames in the DXY: However, a downside correction is expected before a continuation which would coincide with yen strength in the days or weeks to come.  

USD/CAD takes the bids near 1.3400, up 0.07% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. The loonie pair recently took a U-turn from 21 and 50-HMA conflu

USD/CAD bounces off a confluence of 21 and 50-HMA.Bulls can probe late July month’s low on the upside break of the “double tops”.Sellers will witness multiple support lines below the SMA confluence.USD/CAD takes the bids near 1.3400, up 0.07% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. The loonie pair recently took a U-turn from 21 and 50-HMA confluence, which in turn takes clues from MACD to challenge the previous week’s highs marked on Thursday and Friday. Considering the strength of the bullish momentum, not to forget strong downside supports, the quote is likely to break 1.3418/20 resistance and aim for July 30 top near 1.3460. However, USD/CAD upside past-1.3460 will be questioned by the June 23 low of 1.3485 and the 1.3500 threshold. On the contrary, a downside break of the aforementioned HMAs near 1.3380/85 will take a rest on the upward sloping trend line from September 22, at 1.3350 now. In a case where USD/CAD prices slip below 1.3350, another support line from September 18, currently around 1.3310, will be the key. USD/CAD hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

The investment banking giant Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the benchmark interest rate to a new record low of 0.10% f

The investment banking giant Westpac now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the benchmark interest rate to a new record low of 0.10% from the current 0.25% in November, according to Ricardo Goncalves, Finance Editor at SSB News.  Westpac's Economist Bill Evans published a note last week, projecting a rate cut at the Oct. 6 meeting.  AUD/USD is currently sidelined near 0.7040, having declined by 3.65% last week. That was the biggest single-day percentage drop since March. 

New Zealand Total Filled Jobs increased to 9.147M in August from previous -7.418M

New Zealand Total Filled Jobs up to 9147M in August from previous -7.418M

In its latest analytical piece, published late-Sunday, Bloomberg relies on the volatility gaps between the currencies of the emerging markets and thos

In its latest analytical piece, published late-Sunday, Bloomberg relies on the volatility gaps between the currencies of the emerging markets and those from the Group of Seven (G7) while citing market pessimism near the end of the third quarter (Q3). The report also mentioned findings from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank to flag risks. Key quotes Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is asking investors to put their money into high-yielding currencies, such as the Mexican peso, the South African rand and Russian ruble, but only ‘once the dust settles.’ Deutsche Bank AG is taking a ‘more defensive stance’ on emerging-market credit as it expects increased volatility from the U.S. election to fuel a selloff in risky assets. Central banks in India and the Philippines are both forecast to keep interest rates on hold Thursday, as they balance the need for additional stimulus against a backdrop of rising market volatility. FX implications With the risk of further widening in the market’s volatility, as inferred from option contracts and the upcoming key risk events line US elections and Brexit deadline, safe-havens like the US dollar may keep the throne. As a result, Antipodeans and commodities are likely to witness further downside.

EUR/USD could extend last week's 1.77% decline, as crucial weekly chart indicators are now reporting bearish conditions. The MACD histogram, which gau

EUR/USD's weekly MACD has turned bearish for the first since May. Key SMAs have rolled over in favor of the bears. EUR/USD could extend last week's 1.77% decline, as crucial weekly chart indicators are now reporting bearish conditions.  The MACD histogram, which gauges trend strength and trend changes, has crossed below zero, indicating a bullish-to-bearish trend change. The index has turned negative for the first time since May.  Further, the 5- and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have produced a bearish crossover for the first time since January.  As such, the pair is likely to test the former resistance-turned-support of 1.1495 (March high).  The pair is currently trading at 1.1632, having declined from 1.1872 to 1.1612 last week.  A close above last week's high of 1.1872 is needed to invalidate the bearish bias.  Weekly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Silver prices decline to $22.90 as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. The white metal earlier surged to $23.08 but failed to keep the gains i

Silver trims early-Asian gains while taking a U-turn from $23.08.A three-day-old triangle formation restricts the bullion’s moves.100 and 50-HMA are additional filters to watch amid near-term bearish bias.Silver prices decline to $22.90 as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. The white metal earlier surged to $23.08 but failed to keep the gains inside a triangle drawn from last Wednesday. Considering the commodity’s latest pullback, a confluence of 50-HMA and the support line of the mentioned triangle near $22.70/75 can limit additional downside. Also acting as near-term key support could be $22.40 that holds the gate for silver’s further weakness towards the monthly low of $21.65. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the mentioned triangle’s resistance line, at $23.13 now, needs validation from the 100-HMA level of $23.33 to aim for September 22 low near $23.85. Should there be a clear upside past-$23.85, last Tuesday’s high around $25.25 can lure the bulls. Silver hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The price of which has been tracked in a series of analysis, as follows: WTI Price Analysis: Bulls targeting a weekly bullish correction, 1:3 R/R; WTI

WTI is finally making its way into the kill zone.Bears are getting set, but there are a few more steps in the price action that we want to see. The price of which has been tracked in a series of analysis, as follows:WTI Price Analysis: Bulls targeting a weekly bullish correction, 1:3 R/R;WTI Price Analysis: Bulls back in the game, back to the drawing board for 1:3 R/R setup;WTI Price Analysis: Bears lurking for weekly swing trade opportunity, has played out perfectly in accordance with the price action predictions and overall bearish outlook, give or take the bullish opportunities within the broader bearish forecast.  The following charts continue with the bearish analysis, identifying where the trade opportunity is, (aka, The Kill Zone), starting with the monthly charts as follows: Monthly chart (i) The monthly charts are offering a signal that the upside move has completed. The wick on the current candle, with 2 days and 22 hours until the close, will be filled on to the downside in weeks to come.  At least a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to be expected. (ii) Weekly chart As can be seen, the weekly chart is the correction within the monthly pin-bar (wick) and is expected to fill in the wick. The price has already completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.  Daily chart The daily chart is a little more complex. The price is being resisted, which is what we want to see at this juncture.  A break of support and a continuation to the final support structure is what we are monitoring for next before an extension to the monthly target. 4-hour chart The four-hour chart's forecasted price action should look something like the above.  A higher probability setup will come on a restest of the current support structure that should hold as resistance - aka, The Kill Zone.  “It is better to be prepared for an opportunity and not have one than to have an opportunity and not be prepared,” – Whitney M. Young Jr.

NZD/USD prints mild intraday gains, of 0.10%, while taking rounds to 0.6550 amid the early Asian session on Monday. The Kiwi pair recently benefited f

NZD/USD extends late Friday’s pullback moves to print mild gains.New Zealand’s Total Filled Jobs were up 9,147 to 2.2 million in August 2020 compared with July.Risk sentiment recovers on stimulus hopes, virus woes tame the bulls.China is on holiday and nothing lures the momentum traders.NZD/USD prints mild intraday gains, of 0.10%, while taking rounds to 0.6550 amid the early Asian session on Monday. The Kiwi pair recently benefited from the upbeat second-tier employment data at home while the risk set-up also favors the quote’s positive performance. Though fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) wave 2.0 and China’s absence restrict the market moves off-late. New Zealand’s Total Filled Jobs grew 9,147 to 2.2 million in August. The recovery in numbers from the July month takes clues from the education industry. Statistics New Zealand (Stats NZ) quotes economic statistics manager Sue Chapman while saying, “Filled jobs increased across the education sector as a new term and semester began without COVID-19 restrictions.” Return of optimists or a consolidation? During the last week, NZD/USD bounced off a one-month low amid a pullback in the US dollar gains. However, the bulls are yet to justify their dominance as risk dwindles due to the mixed catalysts. Irrespective of the upbeat second-tier employment data, an update from the Stats NZ said, “Despite the rise in filled job numbers in August, they are still well below March 2020 levels before COVID-19 restrictions began. Filled job numbers are usually lower in August than in March by a few thousand, but this year the difference was over 30,000 jobs.” It should also be noted that the virus woes are rising strongly in the UK and Europe with the latest headlines from The Times suggesting a return of lockdown conditions. On the other hand, Johnson and Johnson Inc. reported strong results of its virus vaccine during the fourth trial. Elsewhere, expectations that the US stimulus package is on its way, as the policymakers are agreeing to re-start the talks, helped improve the market's mood. Other than the virus woes and domestic data, the weekend release of China’s upbeat Industrial Profits and lack of clarity over Brexit is additional catalysts that confuse NZD/USD traders amid a light calendar. Even so, S&P 500 Futures print 0.25% gains to 3,295 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sluggish near 0.65% by the time of press. Considering the lack of major data/events, headlines concerning the pandemic and the key risk factors will be on the driver’s seat. However, the US dollar’s strength can keep the bulls chained unless any optimistic news recalls the risk-on momentum. Technical analysis Unless closing above the September 09 low of 0.6601, buyers are less likely to be convinced. As a result, sellers may look for entries below an ascending trend line from August 20, currently around 0.6510.  

New Zealand Total Filled Jobs climbed from previous -7.418M to 0.0091M in August

New Zealand Total Filled Jobs increased to 9.147M in August from previous -7.418M

GBP/JPY drops to 134.70, intraday low of 134.64, during the pre-Tokyo open trading on Monday. The Pound cross recently took a U-turn from 200-HMA whil

GBP/JPY eases the early-Asian bullish bias despite flashing a four-day winning streak.Bullish MACD, sustained break of 12-day-old falling trend line keep buyers hopeful.133.55/50 can offer strong downside support, a falling trend line from September 16 adds to the upside barriers.GBP/JPY drops to 134.70, intraday low of 134.64, during the pre-Tokyo open trading on Monday. The Pound cross recently took a U-turn from 200-HMA while pouring cold water on the face of bulls. However, successful trading beyond the descending trend line from September 10, coupled with the bullish MACD keeps the buyers hopeful. Hence, traders will wait for a clear break of an eight-day-long downward sloping trend line, at 135.00 now, to confirm the buying after the upside clearance of 134.80 level comprising 200-HMA. In doing so, buyers can aim for 136.00 round-figures ahead of confronting the tops marked during September 18 and 14, respectively around 136.20 and 136.60. Meanwhile, GBP/JPY sellers may target the re-test of the previous resistance line, currently near 133.90, during further downside. It should, however, be noted that there are multiple supports close to 133.55/50 that can probe the bears looking to refresh the monthly low of 133.04. GBP/JPY hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

US Stock futures are perky at the start of the week in Asia with futures on the S&P 500 adding 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% and the DJIA hig

Futures in S&P 500 adds 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.3% and the DJIA is higher by 80 points.House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said another coronavirus stimulus plan is possible. US Stock futures are perky at the start of the week in Asia with futures on the S&P 500 adding 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3% and the DJIA higher by 80 points. The moves are promising considering the terrible performance of the indexes of late wit bit the S&P 500 and the  Dow ending in a fourth straight negative week on Friday and the first time since August 2019 that the two indexes have suffered such a losing streak. The tech-heavy Nasdaq eked out a 1% gain last week, posting its first positive week in four as the technology sector rebounded slightly from the recent deep rout.  As argued in the following weekly analysis for the S&P 500, the signs that there are still chances of a further fiscal stimulus bill before the election day could give stocks a boost to start the week. S&P 500 Index Weekly Forecast: Stimulus, US politics and NFP in the mix, consolidation expected on the chartEarlier today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said another coronavirus stimulus plan is possible. House Democrats are seeking to forge a smaller aid package costing about $2.4 trillion and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and Pelosi have agreed to restart talks.  I think we have a chance to get something done and we want to, Pelosi explained, adding,  What we will be putting forth is an offer to say, now let us negotiate within a time frame and a dollar amount to get the job done to put money in people’s pockets, to honor our heroes and to crush the virus.

Gold rises to $1,865, intraday high $1,866.14, during the early Asian session on Monday. The bullion recently picked up bids as the market sentiment i

Gold prices jump to near $5.00 while keeping late Friday's pullback from $1,852.Stimulus hopes favor S&P 500 Futures but virus woes challenge optimists.Uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential Election, Brexit play their roles amid a light calendar.Gold rises to $1,865, intraday high $1,866.14, during the early Asian session on Monday. The bullion recently picked up bids as the market sentiment improved over the hopes of the American stimulus to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19). Though, fears of strict lockdown conditions hampering the global economic growth seem to probe the bulls. Additionally, catalysts likely allegations on US President Donald Trump and Brexit uncertainty are an extra burden on the market’s mood. Mixed clues everywhere… Global market players are in a dilemma as the key risk catalysts are flashing mixed signals off-late. While the surge in the COVID-19 cases, coupled with the likely return of national lockdown conditions in major economies, challenges the market mood, hopes of the virus vaccine tame the pessimism. Elsewhere, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) head Carolyn Fairbairn is optimistic about the Brexit trade deal ahead of the ninth round of talks starting from Tuesday. The Irish leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, on the other hand, said during the weekend that Britain headed for no-deal Brexit. Furthermore, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi believes, as per the CNBC, that the COVID-19 aid package deal is possible considering the Democratic preparation for a new package. It should also be noted that the New York Times alleged American President Donald Trump over income tax returns of $750 for 2016 and 2017. However, the Democratic leader termed it as “fake news” while showing strong belief to have tremendous victory in the election. Amid all these catalysts, S&P 500 Futures track Friday’s upbeat performance of Wall Street while rising 0.36% to 3,298 by the press time. The risk barometer seems to await clearer signals to extend the latest recovery. In doing so, the economic calendar may prove to be less helpful, containing no major data/events, while headlines concerning Brexit, pandemic and US Presidential Election may offer important clues. Technical analysis While 100-day SMA, at $1,847 now, offers immediate strong support to gold prices, buyers may wait for an upside break of the September 21 low near $1,882 before taking any fresh entries.  

New Zealand Total Filled Jobs rose from previous -7.418M to 9147M in August

Early Monday morning in Asia, The Times came out with the news suggesting that the policymakers in the UK are considering a strict ban on socializing

Early Monday morning in Asia, The Times came out with the news suggesting that the policymakers in the UK are considering a strict ban on socializing amid the recent surge in the coronavirus (COVID-19) cases. Key quotes The report says that the new lockdown measures put forward a complete closure for all pubs, restaurants and bars for two weeks initially. Households would also be banned indefinitely from meeting each other in any indoor location where they were not already under the order, the report mentioned. In a separate report, The Sun also quoted a spokesperson for the London Mayor Sadiq Khan while saying,  "London is at a very worrying tipping point right now. We’re seeing a sharp rise in 111 calls, hospital admissions, and patients in ICU. Whilst Londoners have made incredible collective sacrifices to reduce the spread of Covid-19, the number of cases is now rising steeply again and we have to take immediate action to get the virus back under control." FX implications Following the news, GBP/USD fades the upside momentum portrayed at the day’s start while stepping back from the intraday high of 1.2777 to currently around 1.2765. Read: GBP/USD: Virus woes probe bulls targeting 1.2800

In the latest White House press conference, US President Donald Trump showed optimism concerning his victory during the upcoming Presidential Election

In the latest White House press conference, US President Donald Trump showed optimism concerning his victory during the upcoming Presidential Election, scheduled for November 03. The Democratic leader also turned down the New York Times report about his tax reports suggesting payment of $750 as income tax in 2016 and 2017. Key comments We are going to have tremendous victory in the election. Will be counting ballots forever after November 3 election. Did not discuss the election with his u.s. supreme court nominee Barrett. New York Times report on his income taxes 'fake news'. Accuses Barrett's critics of playing the religion 'card' against her. Market implications The news helps S&P 500 Futures to kick-start the week on a positive side, up 0.30% to 3,295. However, the EUR/USD pair jumps around 10 pips following the announcements. It should be noted that a light calendar and an absence of major signals from the speech seem to offer mixed signals and question market sentiment via this news.

GBP/USD slips off intraday low of 1.2770 to 1.2765 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. The Cable surged from 1.2746 to 1.2768 at the week’s start a

GBP/USD jumps 20+ pips at the week’s start amid hope of a Brexit deal.Calls of negative rates, virus woes recently play their roles.Risk news remains the key driver amid a lack of major data/events.GBP/USD slips off intraday low of 1.2770 to 1.2765 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. The Cable surged from 1.2746 to 1.2768 at the week’s start as traders believed Brexit deal is still possible, based on the weekend headlines. However, fears that the coronavirus (COVID-19) is heading towards the national lockdown recalled the bears off-late. A total social lockdown in Northern Britain… The Times came out with the news suggesting that the UK government is up for an emergency ban on socializing. The news pulled GBP/USD back from the intraday high to 1.2755. However, renewed concerns about the Brexit keep the bulls hopeful. Ahead of the ninth round of departure talks this Tuesday, the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) head, Carolyn Fairbairn, said during the weekend that a trade deal "can and must be made." On the other hand, the Irish leader, Taoiseach Micheál Martin, was pessimistic about the chances of a trade deal between the UK and the EU, per inews. It should also be noted that the BOE member Silvana Tenreyro hinted favor for the negative rates during the latest appearances in Telegraph, reported by Reuters, as she said, “evidence on negative rates is encouraging.” Read: A mix of weekend headlines for GBP traders Looking forward, a lack of major data/events can keep traders worried but bulls are likely to have a bumpy road amid mixed cues. Technical analysis While September 11 low near 1.2765 offers immediate resistance, a daily close beyond June month’s high around 1.2815 becomes necessary for the buyers’ return. Meanwhile, a downside break of 1.2675 may take rest near July 10 tops surrounding 1.2670 ahead of targeting the July month low near 1.2480.  

AUD/USD seesaws near 0.7030/35 at the start of the week’s trading on Monday. The Aussie pair dropped to the lowest since July 20 on Friday before boun

AUD/USD keeps late-Friday pullback from 10-week low despite struggling around 0.7030.Market sentiment stays sluggish amid mixed clues, coronavirus woes keeps the US dollar strong.Increased expectations of American stimulus, recovery in technology shares and vaccine hopes signal light at the end of the tunnel.A light calendar keeps risk catalysts on the driver’s seat, traders may look for bright spots to extend the latest bounce.AUD/USD seesaws near 0.7030/35 at the start of the week’s trading on Monday. The Aussie pair dropped to the lowest since July 20 on Friday before bouncing off 0.7004 by the end of the week. While the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes and the broad US dollar rally can be blamed for the quote’s weakness, recently positive signals concerning the US aid package and the virus vaccine indicate light at the end of the tunnel. However, those are still in the nascent stages and need back-up to perform. Bulls defend 0.7000, but not for long… With the run-up in equities during Friday, AUD/USD managed to keep 0.7000 despite fears of the pandemic. While cases continue to surge in the UK and Europe, not to forget India, Johnson and Johnson Inc. came out with the news suggesting a strong immune response to the coronavirus vaccine with a single dose in the early trial stages.  Elsewhere, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi believes, per CNBC, that the COIVD-19 stimulus deal still possible as Democrats prepare a new package. Furthermore, mixed clues concerning the final round of Brexit talks this week also play their role in determining the market sentiment. Against this backdrop, Wall Street managed to please the bulls, backed by tech-shares, whereas the US 10-year treasury yields stood depressed near 0.65% by the end of Friday. Considering the absence of any strong clues that could renew hopes of economic recovery amid the virus woes and the US-China tussle, AUD/USD is less likely to remain strong for long. Though, no major data/events on the calendar can keep traders guessing unless any news hints print the positive signs. Technical analysis Having bounced off 100-day SMA, currently around 0.7015/20, AUD/USD buyers can aim for June month’s top near 0.7065. Also acting as downside support could be the 0.7000 psychological magnet.  

In this week's The Chart of the Week, once again the euro is the focus and the downside is the ultimate trajectory for it as forecasted in the analysi

In this week's The Chart of the Week, once again the euro is the focus and the downside is the ultimate trajectory for it as forecasted in the analysis.  The latest news to start the week rhymes with the technicals and quotes ECB policymaker Ignazio Visco saying on Sunday: The euro’s recent strengthening is worrying us because it generates further downward pressures on prices at a time when inflation is already low, Visco, Italy’s central bank governor, told an event in Trento, as reported by Reuters news. The monetary policy implications are obvious: if the downward pressures jeopardise our price stability objective, we’ll have to intervene, is a line that should give the bears some fuel in the pursuit of the support structures outlined in the technical analysis illustrated in The Chart of the Week. If, however, opposite effects were to emerge, the measures we’ve already taken could suffice, Visco added.  The euro has opened on the offer to a low of 1.1622 so far.The Chart of the Week: EUR/USD's copy-book landing, still plenty of longs to unwind
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