Garis Masa Berita Forex

NZD/USD pays a little heed to mildly positive inflation data.New Zealand Consumer Price Index recovers 1.5% YoY, 0.8% QoQ during Q1 2021.S&P 500 Futures print mild gains after Wall Street’s second day of losses.Virus woes back US dollar’s bounce off early March lows, trans-Tasman data will be the key.NZD/USD wavers around 0.7170 amid the initial Asian session on Wednesday. In doing so, the kiwi bears catch a breather after pulling the quote back from the one-month top while also refrain from welcoming mildly upbeat New Zealand (NZ) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. As per the Q1 2021 CPI release, NZ inflation eased mildly over the YoY while flashing 1.5% figures, above 1.4% expected and prior. However, the QoQ readings recovered well above the previous quarter’s 0.5% print to 0.8% but remained dismal compared to the 0.7% market consensus. Read: NZ CPI arrives in line with expectations, kiwi flat The coronavirus (COVID-19) woes are likely behind the sober reaction to the key data. The catalyst dragged down the risk barometers the previous day while portraying the US dollar index (DXY) bounce off the lowest since early March, not to forget the second day of losses on Wall Street. Additionally, New Zealand’s GDT Price Index, -0.1% versus +0.3% prior, also exerted downside pressure on the NZD/USD prices. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures consolidate recent losses, up 0.10% by the press time, but the kiwi traders are waiting for Australia’s preliminary Retail Sales for March and Westpac Consumer Confidence data for fresh impulse. Also important will be the COVID-19 updates and the US-China, as well as Russia-Ukraine, news suggesting escalation in the geopolitical fears. Technical analysis Failure to provide a daily closing beyond a downward sloping trend line from March 02, around 0.7195, needs to drop back below 0.7155–50 support confluence, comprising 50-day and 100-day SMA, to recall the NZD/USD bears.  

Ahead of today's core inflation data which is due today at 0300 GMT, we have seen the release of the Consumer Price Index for the first quarter of the year arrive in line with expectations as follows: CPI 0.8% QoQ vs the expected 0.8% QoQ and the previous 0.5%. For the year, it arrived at 1.5% vs the prior 1.% and in line with expectations.  NZD/USD is unchanged on the data at 0.7174.  Description of the Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.

DJI30 registers heaviest drop in a month, S&P 500 and Nasdaq decline 0.68% and 0.92% respectively.COVID infections jump as India leads the tally, Japan may recall virus-led emergencies in the key states and surrounding prefectures.US 10-year Treasury yields part ways from US dollar performance.Netflix reports heavy slowdown in subscriber growth.US equity markets stay jittery on Tuesday as the coronavirus (COVID-19) fears pushed the risks off the cliff amid a light calendar and declining US Treasury yields. Further, the after-market release of Netflix earnings adds to the pessimism. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI30) marked the heaviest drop since March 23 with its 256-point decline, or 0.75%, whereas Nasdaq 100 was the biggest losing index of the day while reporting 0.92% daily downside to 13,786. Moving on, S&P 500 Futures joined the bears’ party with 0.68% losses on a day, down 28.32 points, to 4,134 by the end of Tuesday’s North American trading. With a 12% jump on the weekly covid cases and India’s heavy contribution, one in every three fresh infections, optimism surrounding the faster economic recovery dashed. Also on the negative side were chatters of travel restrictions by the UK, and the US as well as virus variants from Asia and Japan’s recall of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo. Read: Coronavirus Update: India leads run-up in global infections, Japan to recall emergencies in Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo Other than the covid fears, the US-China and the Russia-Ukraine woes also weighed on the sentiment. Against this backdrop, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s repeat show of conveying inflation and employment commitments were mostly ignored. It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 1.55%, before bouncing to 1.56%, but the US dollar index (DXY) recovered from a seven-week low, which in turn portrayed abnormal sync between the bond and greenback. Elsewhere, Netflix reported four million new subscribers, way low than market expectations and previous figures, during the Q1 2021 earnings. The disappointment over the much-followed barometer superseded the firm’s ability to mark $7.16 billion, vs $7.13 billion expected, according to Refinitiv data. Moving on, the earnings season continues to keep the reins while covid updates will also be important amid a light calendar.  

The coronavirus (COVID-19) fears are back to the game and weighed down the markets on Tuesday. Among the heavily hit nations, India leads the tally while Japan is up for recalling the virus-led emergencies in Tokyo and surrounding prefectures. India contributed one in every three new covid infections, on average, per April 20 COVID-19 data from Reuters, with 15,321,089 total cases and 180,530 deaths toll. Japanese media, namely Sankei, mentioned that the Asian major’s government is up for announcing the third virus-led emergency status for Tokyo, Osaka and Hyogo prefectures on Wednesday. However, official details are yet awaited. It’s worth mentioning that Toronto closes some of the workplaces due to the virus spread while the global infections mount 12% on the weekly basis. FX implications Virus resurgence dashes economic recovery hopes, which in turn weighs on the market off-late. That said, Wall Street benchmarks dropped for the second day on Tuesday with the pandemic woes acting as the main catalyst.

WTI retreats after dropping the most in two weeks.API Weekly Crude Oil Stock grew +0.436M versus -3.608M prior.Antitrust lawsuits on OPEC output cuts, covid resurgence in Asia add to the bearish move.EIA inventories, risk developments will be the key.WTI’s corrective pullback from one-month top fizzles as the black gold drops back towards $62.00, currently down near $62.40, amid the early Wednesday morning in Asia. While demand fears and the OPEC-linked news weighed down the oil benchmark the previous day, the black gold’s latest declines could be traced from downbeat inventory data from the private survey. American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a surprise build of 0.436 million barrels of oil into the Weekly Crude Oil Stock, versus the previous depletion of 3.608 million barrels, for the week ended on April 16. The inventory data from an industry player exert additional downside pressure on the energy benchmark that earlier marked the heaviest losses in two weeks as covid resurgence in Asia clouded oil demand hopes. Also negatively affected the commodity prices was a headline from Reuters suggesting the US House Judiciary Committee has passed a bill that would open OPEC to antitrust lawsuits over production cuts. It should be noted that a sell-off in equities also join the drop in WTI while the US dollar’s bounce-off seven-week low offered an extra worry for the black gold traders. Looking forward, the commodity dropped to the negative price this time before a year but the conditions have changed a bit and hence those fears are distant. However, challenges to the economic recovery raised by the COVID-19 fresh wave and increasing inventories may weigh on WTI prices. As a result, oil traders will keep their eyes on the official inventory data, EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, expected -2.860M versus -5.889M prior, for fresh impulse. Also important will be the covid developments and other risk headlines. Technical analysis Although failures to cross the $63.70-80 horizontal resistance back WTI bears, multiple tops marked during late March and 50-day SMA, respectively around $61.80-70 and $61.50, test the latest declines.  

AUD/USD consolidates the heaviest losses in two weeks after rising to the fresh one-month high.On-going challenges to sentiment pulled back USD from following heaviest drop in 2021.RBA minutes reiterated unemployment, inflation as backing the easy money policy, PBOC left benchmark rates unchanged, as expected.Preliminary reading of Australia’s March Retail Sales will be the key.AUD/USD licks its wounds around 0.7730 after barely saved from breaking down the 0.7700 threshold during the previous day’s fall. In doing so, the aussie buyers battle the bears who portrayed the biggest downside in nearly two weeks. Although the US dollar’s comeback could be cited as the major reason, cautious sentiment ahead of today’s Aussie data might as well gain the market’s attention as a catalyst. Greenback’s corrective pullback, covid fears tame the bulls… Following the heaviest drop in 2021, the US dollar index (DXY) bounced off the lowest levels in seven weeks and rose the most in April. While corrective pullback seems to back the greenback’s latest moves, the coronavirus (COVID-19) worries and the US-China, as well as Ukraine-Russia, tussles also weigh on sentiment. Global weekly covid cases are up 12% and Russia is building a military near the border with Ukraine. Further, China warned other nations, indirectly those from the West, to not meddle in the country’s internal affairs. Elsewhere, RBA minutes repeated the old speech of no rate hike and easy money at least till 2024 while the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept one-year and five-year benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, around 3.85% and 4.65% respectively. Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks drop for the second consecutive day whereas the US 10-year Treasury yield recovered the previous day’s losses. Moving on, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index for March, prior 0.02%, will be the first factor, ahead of the initial Retail Sales figures for March, expected 1.0% versus -0.8% previous readouts, to help forecast near-term AUD/USD moves. However, major attention should be given to the risk catalysts for a clear direction. Technical analysis Despite the latest pullback, AUD/USD stays above 50-day SMA level near 0.7720 on a daily closing, which in turn keeps buyers hopeful.