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Forex نیوز ٹائم لائن

پير، 24 فروري، 2020

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Monday, his government is considering deploying a supplementary budget to counter the negative economic imp

South Korean President Moon Jae-in said on Monday, his government is considering deploying a supplementary budget to counter the negative economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.   More to come ...

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk by nearly 2.7K contracts at the end of last week according to flash data from CME Group. Volume, instead,

Open interest in GBP futures markets shrunk by nearly 2.7K contracts at the end of last week according to flash data from CME Group. Volume, instead, reversed two consecutive drops and increased by almost 7.5K contracts. GBP/USD faces extra consolidationCable’s uptick on Friday was accompanied by declining open interest and increasing volume, all opening the door to the continuation of the consolidative mood prevailing since the start of the year. The lower bound of the range emerges at the so far 2020 lows near 1.2850, while the 55-day SMA in the mid-1.3000s should offer decent resistance.

China’s People’s Daily reports that the local health authorities said 24 provincial-level regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, reported no new con

China’s People’s Daily reports that the local health authorities said 24 provincial-level regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, reported no new confirmed cases of coronavirus (COVID19) Sunday. Meanwhile, CNBC cited China’s state planner, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), saying that “resumption of work/production is "accelerating", Zhejiang +90%. Jiangsu, Shandong, Fujian, Liaoning, Guangdong, Jiangxi +70%. Some industries: Iron/steel 67.4%. Nonferrous metals 86.3%. Food processing 70% Coal mine output 76%.” Earlier today, the National Health Commission (NHC) reported a decrease in the number of new virus cases in the mainland while Hubei’s province also reported a drop in the new cases. China’s NHC reports 409 new cases in mainland from coronavirus outbreak as on Feb 23 Market implications Despite a silver lining seen on the coronavirus outbreak seen in China, the market sentiment remains sour amid fears of the virus outbreak spreading rapidly in Italy, South Korea and Iran. The Aussie dollar remains the worst hit, as AUD/USD threatens a new 11-year low of 0.6583 while US equity futures remain deep in the red amid losses in the Asian equity markets.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 24: Coronavirus: The respiratory disease continues spreading and is taking its toll. Chinese Preside

Here is what you need to know on Monday, February 24:Coronavirus: The respiratory disease continues spreading and is taking its toll. Chinese President Xi Jinping has sounded the alarm over the outbreak at the Communist Party's gathering. His words contrast the upbeat mood of last week. Areas in northern Italy's industrial heartland have been put under lockdown due to a significant cluster of cases. The Venice Carnaval has been canceled. In South Korea, the number of cases related to a religious sect in the south of the country is growing. Risk-off: S&P futures, most Asian stocks, commodity currencies, and oil are down on Monday. AUD/USD temporarily hit a new decade low, below last week's trough. While the Japanese yen is mostly unchanged, Gold prices have extended their gains, hitting a high of $1,680. Against the euro and the pound, the US dollar is recovering a significant chunk of its losses on Friday.US data: While most of last week's American figures beat expectations, Markit's preliminary Services Purchasing Managers' Index shocked by dropped below 50, allowing an opportunity to take profits on dollar gains.EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.08 ahead of the German IFO Business Climate figures for February. A slide from January's 95.9 is likely. Regional elections in Hamburg have dealt a blow to Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU Party. Brexit:  Experts warn that if the UK reneges on pledges related to Northern Ireland, it could risk trade agreements with the US and the EU.Saudi Arabia denied it is contemplating breaking away from Russia amid disagreements regarding oil production in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. Cryptocurrencies are sliding on Monday yet remain in familiar ranges, with Bitcoin trading around $9,700.  More All the reasons why US stocks are defying gravity and why they may have more room to run

Ho Woei Chen, Economist, CFA at UOB Group, assessed some preliminary trade figures in South Korea. Key Quotes “South Korea’s first 20-day trade data i

Ho Woei Chen, Economist, CFA at UOB Group, assessed some preliminary trade figures in South Korea. Key Quotes “South Korea’s first 20-day trade data in February showed an improvement from January but could have benefited from a low base due to the different timing in Lunar New Year holidays which fell in January this year versus February in 2019. Even though there was apparent weakness both in exports and imports to/from China, we believe this would not have fully captured the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. The full-month February trade data will be released next Sunday (1 March) and is likely to show a less optimistic picture.” “In the first 20 days of February, exports rose 12.4% y/y (Jan final: -6.3% y/y) while imports rose 4.7% y/y (Jan final: -5.4%). Both exports and imports expansion were led by the US, EU and Vietnam markets while exports to China contracted by 3.7% y/y and imports from China plunged by 18.9% y/y. In particular, the sharp fall in imports from China is a clear sign of the disruption to supply chains resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak that led to extension of the Lunar New Year holiday, delayed return to normal business operations and quarantines.”

CME Group’s preliminary readings for EUR futures markets showed open interest rose by 5.4K contracts on Friday, extending the choppiness seen as of la

CME Group’s preliminary readings for EUR futures markets showed open interest rose by 5.4K contracts on Friday, extending the choppiness seen as of late. Volume, too, rose by around 27.5K contracts, recording the second build in a row. EUR/USD faces resistance in the 1.0879/86 bandEUR/USD has so far managed to rebound from 2020 lows in the 1.0780 region (February 20th). Rising open interest and volume allows for some extension of the so far corrective upside, although strong barrier is expected to emerge in the 1.0879/86 band, where coincide October 2019 lows and a Fibo retracement of the 2020 drop.

Asian stocks register broad losses with the MSCI Index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan revisiting the early-month lows, down -1.7%, ahead of the

Asian stocks drop to the lowest in three-weeks as coronavirus cases outside China rise.Receding warning signs inside the dragon nation fails to placate traders.South Korea, Italy and Japan grab major attention following the weekend headlines.Asian stocks register broad losses with the MSCI Index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan revisiting the early-month lows, down -1.7%, ahead of the European session on Monday. That said, markets in Japan are off today but those from the rest of the Asia-pacific remain downbeat. Among them, South Korea’s KOSPI seems to be the biggest loser, while being in 3.61% losses to 2,084, whereas equities from Australia and New Zealand follow the footsteps with each being more than 2.0% in red by the press time. Shares in China and Hong Kong remain on the back foot while S&P 500 Futures drop 1.42% to 3,292 by the time of writing. Additionally, Malaysian equities are also 2.5% down with the speculations that Prime Minister Mahathir has submitted resignation to the king. The risk-tone turned heavier following the weekend headlines suggesting a speedy rise in coronavirus cases outside China. The fears grabbed pace as Italy, the key to Europe, also stands in the queue. At home, the latest numbers signal receding geopolitical risk which in turn allowed policymakers in Beijing to lower emergency levels issued earlier during the month. Even so, the traders will keep eyes on the coronavirus updates as the fears of the deadly epidemic to weigh on the global manufacturing cycle and growth remain strong. It should, however, be noted that Germany’s IFO survey details and the US activity numbers from the regional Federal Reserve banks could also offer intermediate direction after Friday’s soft numbers strengthened worries that coronavirus is weighing on the key economies.

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting reviewed the latest inflation figures in the Malaysian economy. Key Quotes “Consum

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting reviewed the latest inflation figures in the Malaysian economy. Key Quotes “Consumer price index (CPI) picked up to 1.6% y/y in Jan (Dec 2019: +1.0% y/y), marking a 20- month high amid low base effects and costlier fuel and transport prices compared to a year ago. However, it came in lower than our estimate (1.8%) and Bloomberg consensus (1.7%).” “Despite the uptrend in Jan’s inflation, the COVID-19 outbreak is expected to exert downward pressure on prices given lower fuel costs and transport prices particularly for bus and airfares. Softer demand pressures will also keep inflation on the back burner. As such, we lower our 2020 full-year inflation forecast to 1.5% from 2.5% previously (MOF forecast: 2.0%).” “Our downward revision of CPI growth target factors in lower transport inflation as (i) the government has postponed its plan to float fuel prices, and (ii) PLUS toll rates were reduced by 18% from 1 Feb. The potential pass-through from the MYR1,200 minimum wage and a planned water tariffs hike nationwide may also be delayed amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Hefty price discounts may also be seen in tourism-related sectors to mitigate the impact of the outbreak.” “We expect the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak to be temporary and assume a rebound by 2H20. The government will be announcing a targeted fiscal stimulus package on 27 Feb to cushion the downside risks from the COVID-19 outbreak particularly for the hardest-hit sectors. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has delivered two 25bps rate cuts since May last year to support growth. Hence, we expect policy rates to stay on hold for now as BNM continues to monitor the situation.”

A massive risk-aversion wave gripped Asia starting out a new week on Monday, as investors witnessed sharp moves across the financial markets amid heig

A massive risk-aversion wave gripped Asia starting out a new week on Monday, as investors witnessed sharp moves across the financial markets amid heightening fears over global coronavirus contagion. Weekend reports cited a surge in the new coronavirus cases in South Korea, Iran and Italy that intensified worries that the infectious disease looks more like a pandemic. However, the latest stats from China’s National Health Commission, reporting a decline in the new coronavirus cases in both mainland and Hubei province somewhat curbed the risk-off flows but failed to ease the nerves. A flight to safety drove gold prices to the highest levels in seven years at $1681, as the US and European equity futures slumped 2% in tandem with the Asian stocks. Oil prices gapped down and traded with nearly 2.5% loss. Within the G10 currency markets, the US dollar jumped back on the bids across its main peers amid increased haven demand, having faded the recovery momentum in both the EUR/USD pair and cable. EUR/USD headed back towards 1.0800 while GBP/USD extended losses below 1.2950. Among the Asia-pac currencies, USD/JPY filled in the bearish opening gap but remained modestly flat around the midpoint of the 111 handle amid thin trading, with Japanese traders away on a national holiday. The Antipodeans incurred sizeable losses amid a sell-off in the Emerging Markets (EM) currencies, as the Aussie renewed an 11-year low at 0.6583 while the Kiwi consolidated the gap down to near a four-month low on 0.6300 reached last week. Main Topics in Asia Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso: No comment on yen’s recent weakness G20 Summary: Top economies coordinated response to the coronavirus outbreak The next fortnight will see UK PM Johnson kick start the trade talks with the EU and US – The Telegraph S&P 500 futures slide as Gold gains on virus concerns S. Korea reports 161 more confirmed coronavirus cases, 7th death on Monday USD/KRW rises to six-month high as coronavirus spreads into South Korea NZ PM Arden: China travel restrictions to remain in place for another eight days China’s NHC reports 409 new cases in mainland from coronavirus outbreak as on Feb 23 PBOC’s Chen: Will pledge “dynamic adjustment” of RRR policies Official: Bank Indonesia intervenes to curb capital outflows amid coronavirus spread EU’s Gentiloni: There is no need to panic as coronavirus outbreak hits Italy French FinMin Le Maire: No global digital tax by end-2020 would mean digital tax chaos Key Focus Ahead        With the coronavirus updates likely continue to dominate the broader market sentiment, the German IFO Business Survey for February will also grab some attention, as a lead indicator for the recession-battling economy. The indicators are likely to show some improvement this month and could refuel the corrective bounce in EUR/USD. Next of relevance remains the Canadian Wholesale Sales data among a couple of regional economic news from the US. Markets will continue to watch out for any fresh updates on Brexit-related developments. EUR/USD trades below 200-HMA as Coronavirus grips Italy The selling interest around the single currency is looking to gather steam amid reports stating a rise in the number of coronavirus cases in the north of Italy. The bulls need a better-than-expected German IFO reading to scale back expectations for recession. GBP/USD stays below 1.3000 as the EU, UK give final touches to Brexit deal GBP/USD remains on the back foot near 1.2950 heading into the London open. The UK seeks to avoid Irish Sea checks on goods, employers urged UK PM Johnson. The EU leaders push for “level playing field” but stay divided. Coronavirus, UK-US trade deal also weigh on the pair. Gold at 7-year high on virus fears Gold spiked higher this morning with safe-haven demand intensifying as the global spread of CoVid-19 continues. It’s a relatively sparse data calendar to start the week, with the highlight being the German IFO surveys for February. How Coronavirus could impact the Indian economy and financial markets While the disease may not have impacted the country directly as much, the domestic economy which is just about showing some nascent signs of recovery may not escape unscathed.  

The greenback, when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has started the week on a positive footing and is now challenging session tops in the proxi

DXY reverses Friday’s pullback and retakes the 99.60 area.Renewed coronavirus fears trigger risk-off sentiment on Monday.US Chicago Fed index, Dallas Fed index, Fedspeak next on the docket.The greenback, when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has started the week on a positive footing and is now challenging session tops in the proximity of 99.60. US Dollar Index bid on coronavirus fears The index has managed to leave behind Friday’s moderate pullback after hitting fresh YTD highs in levels just shy of the psychological triple-digit resistance (Thursday), all in response to some profit taking mood and amidst the broad-based recovery in several of the dollar’s rivals. In the meantime, the risk-off sentiment has returned to the markets and is encouraging investors to stay cautious at the beginning of the week following coronavirus cases in Italy and the UK. In China, on the other side, efforts to return to normalcy in work and some other sectors remain on the rise despite latest figures showed new cases of the COVID-19 have been reported in the country. Later on Monday, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dalas Fed Manufacturing Business Index are due along with the speech by Cleveland Fed L.Mester (voter, hawkish) at the NABE Conference. What to look for around USD The index has extended the march north to new 2020 highs just below 100.00 the figure on Thursday, where some solid resistance appears to have turned up. Investors are expected to keep looking to the performance of US fundamentals and the broader risk appetite trends for direction as well as any fresh developments from the COVID-19. In the meantime, the outlook on the dollar remains constructive and bolstered by the current “appropriate” monetary stance from the Fed (once again confirmed at the FOMC minutes on Wednesday) vs. the broad-based dovish view from its G10 peers, the “good shape” of the domestic economy, the buck’s safe haven appeal and its status of “global reserve currency”. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is gaining 0.24% at 99.58 and a breakout of 99.91 (2020 high Feb.20) would aim for 100.00 (psychological barrier) and finally 101.34 (monthly high Apr.10 2017). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 99.23 (low Feb.21) seconded by 99.09 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the 2020 rally) and then 98.54 (monthly high Nov.29 2019).

Gold prices rise 1.2% to $1,662 by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday. In doing so, the bullion stays positive above March 2013 top

Gold prices remain positive above March 2013 top.The year 2013 high and late-2012 tops will be on the bull’s radar for now.Overbought RSI can trigger intermediate pullbacks but major sellers will stay away unless prices dip below September 2019 peak.Gold prices rise 1.2% to $1,662 by the press time of the pre-European session on Monday. In doing so, the bullion stays positive above March 2013 top while also challenging the year 2013 high. Following the metal’s sustained run-up beyond $1,696, high of 2013, highs marked during November and October 2012, respectively near $1,751 and $1,794 can please the bulls. On the contrary, overbought RSI conditions favor a pullback to March 2013 top near $1,617. Though further declines seem doubtful as $1,600 and September 2019 top close to $1,557 will challenge the bears afterward. Also likely to question the sellers below $1,600 will be 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of gold’s broad declines between October 2012 and November 2015. It's worth mentioning that while RSI is in support of a corrective move towards the south, MACD is still flashing bullish signals and favor the buyers. Gold weekly chart Trend: Bullish

GBP/USD declines 0.20% t 1.2940 while heading into the London open on Monday. In doing so, the pair fails to hold onto Friday’s gains amid worries con

GBP/USD remains on the back foot, fails to hold onto the previous day’s gains.The UK seeks to avoid Irish Sea checks on goods, employers urged UK PM Johnson.The EU leaders push for “level playing field” but stay divided.Coronavirus, UK-US trade deal also weigh on the pair.GBP/USD declines 0.20% t 1.2940 while heading into the London open on Monday. In doing so, the pair fails to hold onto Friday’s gains amid worries concerning Brexit deal between the EU and the UK. Also contributing to the pair’s weakness could be the US dollar’s recovery. In addition to the UK PM Boris Johnson’s push to the EU over fisheries, The Times came out with the news that British diplomats are secretly preparing to evade goods’ checks at the Northern Ireland Sea. Also likely to harden the post-Brexit trade deal talks is the push by the UK employers to not sacrifice British services for a trade deal with the EU. On the other hand, the EU has its own demand and holds secrets of the “level playing field” while using broad threats and turning down the UK wishes as and when possible. Elsewhere, the UK PM Johnson is also likely to push for the US trade deal by March 02, as per The Telegraph. However, the Independent spread the news that the Tory government has been warned by the US to not sidestep the greed checks on goods in the Irish Sea to avoid the end of any hopes of the US-UK trade deal. Furthering the downside pressure on the pair is the USD recovery amid broad risk-off led by the coronavirus fears. The deadly virus has been spreading outside China and triggered strengthened the greenback, due to its safe-haven appeal, since the day’s start. An absence of UK data will keep Brexit headlines in the spotlight as British ministers are to sign the initial proposal by Tuesday. On the other hand, the second-tier activity numbers from the US Dallas Fed and the US Chicago Fed will be the keys to watch. Technical Analysis A downward sloping trend line since February 03, at 1.2995, will challenge buyers beyond a 100-day SMA level of 1.2960. Alternatively, 50% Fibonacci retracement of October-December 2019 upside, at 1.2854, can act as the immediate support.

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.7) in January: Actual (0.8)

In an interview with Reuters on Friday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that he discussed global digital tax issue with the G20 Finance mi

In an interview with Reuters on Friday, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said that he discussed global digital tax issue with the G20 Finance ministers and central bank governors. Key quotes: For the first time there is wide consensus among the G20 members on the necessity of having a new international taxation system. We have to address the issue of digital companies making profits in many countries without any physical presence, which means without paying the due level of taxes. Last month, Le Maire said that they are close to deal with the US on digital tax. Market implications: So far this Monday, the rising coronavirus concerns continue to dominate the sentiment across the markets in Asia, with safe-havens in heavy demand, as virus outbreak spreads rapidly in Italy and South Korea. USD/JPY keeps the upside limited while trading around 111.50 amid a steep sell-off in the US equity futures. The European peers also follow suit, with Eurostoxx 50 futures down 2%, while FTSE futures fall 1.3%. EUR/USD trades below 200-HMA as Coronavirus grips Italy

USD/INR declines to 71.85 amid the initial Indian session on Monday. The pair recently took a U-turn from the highest levels since January 08 after fl

USD/INR declines from six-week high after Friday’s bearish candlestick formation.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, short-term rising support line in focus.A falling trend line from September 2019 grabs the buyers’ attention.USD/INR declines to 71.85 amid the initial Indian session on Monday. The pair recently took a U-turn from the highest levels since January 08 after flashing Doji candlestick on Friday. With this, sellers are now targeting 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of September-December 2019 declines, respectively around 71.73 and 71.45, during further downside. However, an upward sloping trend line from January 14, at 71.32 now, can question the pair’s additional south-run past-71.45. On the upside, a descending resistance line stretched from September 03, 2019, close to 72.55, offers the immediate resistance to the pair ahead of the September 2019 top near 72.63. Given the pair’s sustained run-up past-72.63, the bulls can take aim at December 2018 high surrounding 72.90. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The selling interest around the single currency is looking to gather steam amid reports stating a rise in the number of coronavirus cases in the north

EUR/USD is on the offer as coronavirus is spreading in Italy. The bulls need a better-than-expected German IFO reading. The selling interest around the single currency is looking to gather steam amid reports stating a rise in the number of coronavirus cases in the north of Italy.  The common currency is currently flashing red at 1.0822, having opened the week well below the 200-hour moving average (HMA) at 1.0834.  Focus on Italy The number of coronavirus cases in Italy's Lombardy region jumped to 89 on Sunday from 54, leaving the country with 150 confirmed infection – the highest in Europe and about five times that of Germany.  Notably, the number of cases has risen sharply in less than a week and could stoke fears of broader contagion. After all, Italy is part of the Schengen borderless travel area.  As a result, the EUR is likely to remain on the offer in Europe. The selling pressure may weaken, allowing a bounce if the for-ward-looking German IFO – Expectations (Feb) index betters estimates by a big margin, forcing markets to scale back expectations for recession.  From the technical perspective, the pair needs to climb above the last week's high of 1.0864. That would validate the seller exhaustion signaled by the last week's bullish hammer candle and could yield a notable corrective rally toward 1.10. Technical levels  

After a meeting of G20 financial leaders in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, the European Union (EU) Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni offered some concili

After a meeting of G20 financial leaders in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, the European Union (EU) Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni offered some conciliatory remarks over a coronavirus outbreak in Italy. Key quotes “The EU has full confidence in the Italian authorities and the decisions they are taking.” “We share concern for possible contagion (but) there is no need to panic.” EUR/USD back in the red EUR/USD is under pressure amid increased haven flows for the US dollar, as China’s coronavirus outbreak is spilling over rapidly across the globe, with South Korea, Italy and Iran having reported a spike in the new cases over the weekend. At the press time, EUR/USD trades around 1.0820, down 0.20%, having failed the bounce near 1.0850.

USD/CAD rises to 1.3265, up 0.36%, during the early Monday’s trading session. In doing so, the pair repeats its recent pattern of alternating gains wi

USD/CAD fails to hold onto the previous day’s losses.The coronavirus-led risk aversion continues to spread into commodities while helping the US dollar to recover Friday’s losses.The second-tier US/Canadian data will be watched to reconfirm the recently soft economics.USD/CAD rises to 1.3265, up 0.36%, during the early Monday’s trading session. In doing so, the pair repeats its recent pattern of alternating gains with losses amid fears of coronavirus spread outside China. Not only South Korea’s raising of the national threat level to “red alert” but a speedy run-up in Italy’s coronavirus cases from three on Friday to 140 (as per the latest Bloomberg piece) also portray the outbreak of Chinese disease. While cases outside Beijing are on a spike, the mainland figures are less disturbing whereas the news that five provinces lower emergency levels inside China seem to have stopped further risk aversion off-late. Even so, S&P 500 Futures stay -1.34% to 3,294 by the time of writing while stocks in Asia also flash red signals by the press time. Also contributing to the pair’s upside is WTI oil. The black gold extended Friday’s losses amid concerns that coronavirus will have a serious impact on the global energy demand. In doing so, oil prices ignored weekend headlines signaling geopolitical tension emanating from Israel. Looking forward, the US activity numbers from Chicago and Dallas Fed will be closely watched to reconfirm Friday’s soft statistics concerning the world’s largest economy. Additionally, Canada’s December month Wholesale Sales, expected +0.8% versus -1.2% prior, could offer further direction to the pair. Technical Analysis Unless marking a daily close below 200-day SMA level of 1.3215, the quote is less likely to forget challenging the early-month high near 1.3400.  

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is facing selling pressure amid risk-off mood in the financial markets. So far, however, the black gold has mana

WTI oil is holding on to key rising support at $51.80. A break lower could cause more sellers to join the market. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is facing selling pressure amid risk-off mood in the financial markets.  So far, however, the black gold has managed to hold on to support of the trendline rising from Feb. 10 and Feb. 18 lows.  That 4-hour chart trendline support is currently located at $51.80 and the benchmark is changing hands at $52.05 per barrel.  Acceptance under the trendline support would mean the corrective rally from recent lows near $49.40 has ended at the Feb. 20 high of $54.45 and would shift risk in favor of a drop to $50.00.  Alternatively, a move above $53.56 is needed to invalidate the lower high setup on the 4-hour chart and open the doors for the re-test of the recent high of $545.45 4-hour chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

Nanang Hendarsah, Head of monetary management at Bank Indonesia (BI), said by a text message on Monday, the Indonesian central bank intervened in spot

Nanang Hendarsah, Head of monetary management at Bank Indonesia (BI), said by a text message on Monday, the Indonesian central bank intervened in spot fx, domestic NDF and bond markets to stem outflows related to fears of the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea.   More to come ...

USD/CHF registers 0.21% gains while taking the bids around 0.9805 during the early Monday. The pair recently reversed from 21/50-day EMA and 38.2% Fib

USD/CHF bounces off the short-term key support confluence comprising 21 and 50-day EMA as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.200-day EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci challenge buyers amid bullish MACD.USD/CHF registers 0.21% gains while taking the bids around 0.9805 during the early Monday. The pair recently reversed from 21/50-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 2019 to January 2020 declines. Also supporting the pullback are bullish signals from MACD. That said, the pair now aims to confront 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9820 whereas a 200-day EMA level of 0.9845 becomes the tough nut to crack for buyers afterward. Should there be a sustained run-up beyond 0.9845, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9870 and 0.9900 will be on the bulls’ radars. Alternatively, the pair’s daily closing below 0.9770/75 support confluence can divert sellers towards 0.9750/45 ahead of highlighting a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9710. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Chen Yulu, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said on Monday that China will adopt "dynamic adjustment" of targeted reserve require

Chen Yulu, Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said on Monday that China will adopt "dynamic adjustment" of targeted reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut policies in the near future, Xinhua reports. Chen said that such a move is for better use of inclusive financing to shore up the virus-hit economy. Additional quotes: Will also step up the utilization of structural monetary policy tools and enable the country's three policy banks to better play their roles. Currently, China's monetary policy space and policy tools remain sufficient.

Gold's recent rally has bolstered bullish expectations and revived demand for call options, which gives the holder a right but not the obligation to b

Gold's risk reversals are rising along with the price. Investors are adding bets to position for gains in the yellow metal.Gold's recent rally has bolstered bullish expectations and revived demand for call options, which gives the holder a right but not the obligation to buy the yellow metal at an agreed price on or before a particular date.  The yellow metal broke out of a contracting triangle last week, resuming the rally from November lows near $1,475 and rose to a seven-year high of $1,681 in the early Asian session on Monday. At press time, gold is trading at $1,660 per Oz, representing a 6.27% gain on the low of $1,562 observed on Feb. 12.  The surge is accompanied by an uptick in one-month risk reversal, a gauge of calls to puts, which bottomed out at 0.85 on Feb. 12 and has risen in a near 90-degree manner to 2.30 - a sign of increased demand or implied volatility premium for call options.  The current value represents the strongest bullish bias since Jan.8. The 2020 high of 3.10 was reached on  Jan. 6. XAU1MRR

USD/JPY is trimming gains as yen sellers are struggling to absorb buying pressure amid risk-off mood in the financial markets. Rejected at 111.68 The

USD/JPY has backed off from session highs on haven demand for yen.Coronavirus outbreak is likely weighing over risk sentiment. USD/JPY is trimming gains as yen sellers are struggling to absorb buying pressure amid risk-off mood in the financial markets.  Rejected at 111.68 The pair's recovery from the session low of 111.27 ran out of steam at 111.68 about an hour ago, allowing a pullback to 111.50.  The failure to keep gains above the psychological resistance of 111.50 could be associated with deeper declines in the equity markets.  The S&P 500 futures fell by 1% in early Asia and are now reporting a 1.45% drop. The Dow futures are currently down 400 points and stocks in Australia, South Korea, and China are also flashing red.  Investors are selling risk, possibly in response to reports stating a rise in the number of coronavirus cases outside China, especially in South Korea and Italy.  Global Times reported an hour ago that South China's Guangdong Province, along with five other provinces, has adjusted its emergency response level for the prevention and control of coronavirus from a first-level to second-level. So far, however, that failed to bring cheer to the risk assets.  The pair may end falling back to levels below 111.30 if the German IFO data, due at 09:00 GMT, prints below estimates, bolstering recession fears and strengthening demand for the anti-risk yen.  Technical levels  

According to the latest data published by China’s National Health Commission’s (NHC), 409 additional cases of coronavirus are reported as of end Feb 2

According to the latest data published by China’s National Health Commission’s (NHC), 409 additional cases of coronavirus are reported as of end Feb 23 vs. 648 confirmed on Feb 22), bringing the total cases up to 77,150. Additional details: China’s coronavirus death toll rises by 150 to 2,592. 24,734 virus patients have been discharged. China' s Hubei province, the epicenter of coronavirus outbreak, reports 398 new cases on Feb 23 vs. 630 on Feb 22.

Following a meeting of finance officials from the world’s 20 largest economies on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters that cen

Following a meeting of finance officials from the world’s 20 largest economies on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters that central bankers will look at options for responding to the fast-spreading coronavirus as needed. Mnuchin noted: “I’m not going to comment on monetary policy, but obviously central bankers will look at various different options as this has an impact on the economy.” US Pres. Trump: Coronavirus is under control in US

NZD/USD remains on the back foot, down 0.40% to 0.6325, by the press time of early Monday. In doing so, the pair remains inside a short-term falling t

NZD/USD struggles around four-month low inside the six-week-old descending trend channel.The bearish pattern’s support line holds the key to October 2019 lows.The channel’s upper line, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement limit the pair’s near-term declines amid oversold RSI.Comments from New Zealand PM and downbeat data joined coronavirus to please the bears.NZD/USD remains on the back foot, down 0.40% to 0.6325, by the press time of early Monday. In doing so, the pair remains inside a short-term falling trade channel. While downbeat Retail Sales and Credit Card Spending from New Zealand (NZ) earlier dented the NZD/USD pair amid coronavirus fears, comments from the NZ PM Jacinda Ardern recently weigh on the prices. Even so, the formation’s support line around 0.6280 and 0.6240 can question further selling while RSI conditions are overbought. If at all the bears refrain to respect RSI and dominate below 0.6240, October 2019 low near 0.6200 will be on their radars. On the upside, the said channel’s resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October-December 2019 upside, respectively around 0.6400 and 0.6415, can limit the pair’s pullbacks. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

New Zealand (PM) Arden is out on the wires now, via Reuters, announcing that NZ extend travel ban on foreigners arriving from mainland China. She adde

New Zealand (PM) Arden is out on the wires now, via Reuters, announcing that NZ extend travel ban on foreigners arriving from mainland China. She added that China travel restrictions to remain in place for another eight days.

Risk reversals on the Australian dollar, a gauge of calls to puts, fell to three-month lows on Monday, indicating increased demand for put options (be

AUD/USD risk reversals have dropped to the lowest since Nov. 29. The Aussie dollar sell-off is drawing bids for put options. Risk reversals on the Australian dollar, a gauge of calls to puts, fell to three-month lows on Monday, indicating increased demand for put
options (bearish bets).  The one-month risk reversals fell to -1.275, the lowest level since Nov. 29. The gauge stood at a high of -0.50 on Jan. 17.  The slide represents increased demand or implied volatility premium for the put options – a sign the investors are adding bets to position for a deeper decline in the Aussie dollar.  AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6610, having hit an 11-year low of 0.6585 in early Asia. The pair has dropped by over 400 pips since topping out at 0.7032 on Dec. 31. AUD1MRR

USD/KRW remains 0.67% up to 1,217.50 by the press time of early Monday. In doing so, the pair stays near the highest levels last seen during the late-

USD/KRW registers a six-day winning streak.With 161 news cases, South Korea marks 763 numbers of people affected due to coronavirus.South Korean ruling party and Finance Ministry showed readiness to take extraordinary measures, urged additional budget.USD/KRW remains 0.67% up to 1,217.50 by the press time of early Monday. In doing so, the pair stays near the highest levels last seen during the late-August 2019 and the reason to blame is the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea. As per the latest updates from Yonhap, South Korea reported the seventh death due to coronavirus that has already infected 161 people by Monday and took the toll to 763 so far. The fears of coronavirus spread outside China recently gained momentum after rising numbers from Italy, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong crossed the wires during the weekend. While identifying the fears of the epidemic, South Korea’s Finance Ministry earlier said that the COVID-19 threatens to limit the Korean economic recovery. However, diplomats including that from the ruling party also showed readiness to counter the epidemic by calling more than 10 trillion won on additional budget. From China, the latest numbers are slightly positive with the news of multiple provinces lowering coronavirus emergency response levels. However, the market’s risk aversion fails to recover. While portraying the risk-off, S&P 500 Futures drop 1.9% while South Korea’s KOSPI loses 2.88% to 2,100 by the press time. Markets are all ears to coronavirus updates amid a lack of major data/events on the economic calendar as well as off in Japan. Technical Analysis Buyers are now targeting August 2019 high near 1,2230 while October 2019 top near 1,208 and 1,200 round-figure can act as the immediate supports during the pair’s pullback.  

Mainland China official coronavirus deaths have increased by 97 as of the end of February 22. Meanwhile, South China's Guangdong Province has adjusted

Mainland China official coronavirus deaths have increased by 97 as of the end of February 22. Meanwhile, South China's Guangdong Province has adjusted its emergency response level for the prevention and control of the coronavirus from a first-level to second-level. Five other provinces have recently lowered their levels. FX implications It is all eyes on the US dollar, AUD, yuan and the yen. The Aussie seems to have managed to take a breather but only in the face of profit-taking, and the same might be said elsewhere as the US dollar gives back some ground, letting out some air. More here: Chart Of The Week: USD/JPY moves in on familiar price acceptance areaWhat you need to know for the open: Coronavirus risk-off themes rule the wavesCoronavirus update: Italy cases surge from three on Friday morning to more than 130 by Sunday 

Gold is on the offensive, having logged its biggest weekly gain in six months last week. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,663 per Oz, repre

Gold rallied by over 3.7 percent last week to print its best weekly performance since August. The bias remains bullish despite overbought readings on key indicators.Gold is on the offensive, having logged its biggest weekly gain in six months last week.  The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,663 per Oz, representing over 1% gains on the day, having hit a high of $1,681 in early Asia. That was the highest level since February 2013.  Prices rallied by over 3.7% last week. Gain bigger than that were last seen in the second week of August.  Overbought? The daily relative strength index (RSI) is reporting overbought conditions with an above-70 print. The weekly RSI is also echoing similar sentiments.  The price chart, however, is showing no signs of buyer exhaustion. So, the path of least resistance remains to the higher side.  The pullback from the session high of $1,681 looks to have run out of steam near $1,658. The dip could attract more bids as the risk-off is in full swing with the futures on the S&P 500 and the Asian equity indices reporting notable losses on the emergence of coronavirus infections in new countries including South Korea, Italy, and Iran.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Following a spurt in new coronavirus cases on Sunday, South Korea reported hundred 161 more confirmed virus cases on Monday, bringing the total to 763

Following a spurt in new coronavirus cases on Sunday, South Korea reported hundred 161 more confirmed virus cases on Monday, bringing the total to 763.   More to come ...

USD/IDR stays 0.45% positive around 13,890 following its run-up to the intra-day high of 13,915.50 amid the early trading session on Monday.

USD/IDR rises to a seven-week high after successfully breaking 50-day SMA.200-day SMA becomes the key upside barrier while multiple lows near 13,590/85 can challenge the bears.USD/IDR stays 0.45% positive around 13,890 following its run-up to the intra-day high of 13,915.50 amid the early trading session on Monday. The pair crossed 50-day SMA for the first time since late-November 2019 during the last week and carries the upside momentum by the press time. Even so, a downward sloping trend line from August 2019 high seems to question the buyers at the moment, which if broken successfully can propel the quote towards a 200-day SMA level of 14,067. However, 14,000 round-figure and January month high near 14,023 can offer intermediate halts during the run-up. If at all USD/IDR prices fail to provide a daily closing beyond 13, 910, sellers will aim for a 50-day SMA level of 13,780 whereas multiple lows marked from the month’s start near 13,585/90 can challenge the bears afterward. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Bullish  

We have seen weakness in the yuan this year fulled by end of year flows in 2019 and the impact of a strong US dollar as well as the coronavirus. The c

USD/CNH has completed a full 78.60% retracement of the December sell-off as the Yuan takes a coronavirus beating.The US dollar has also been a relentless factor pressuring emerging markets and the Chinese currency. People's Bank of China pumping stimulus, but markets looking for more. We have seen weakness in the yuan this year fulled by end of year flows in 2019 and the impact of a strong US dollar as well as the coronavirus. The currency pair has reverted towards the December highs, completing a 78.60% retracement of the range YTD. China’s central bank, PBoC, cut rates last week on two separate occasions, but markets noted the caution action and are expecting more which will be required, hence there was little reaction compared to the currency's movements in response to new cases of the virus since 20th January 2020.  Markets are pinning hopes on fiscal stimulus. China will want to limit the amount of loans that go into asset and investment markets, so long term loaning is off the agenda, for now. Elsewhere, however, there is little room for additional stimulus. Some central banks are already experimenting with aero interest rates. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank and other central banks are probably counting on increased fiscal stimulus from governments. Either way, more monetary policy easing in 2Q20 will likely be on the cards from China to support the economy to recover from the ongoing epidemic.  Coronavirus latest The latest is that there are now 78,854 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus and 2,465 deaths worldwide, according to with the majority of the cases and deaths being reported in mainland China, followed by Japan and South Korea. Here are the top five countries to have experienced outbreaks beyond China: Japan: 738 cases, 3 deaths, (639 cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship and 99 on land). South Korea: 602 cases, 5 deaths. Italy: 132 cases, 2 deaths. Singapore: 89 cases. Hong Kong: 74 cases, 2 deaths. – more on that here, however, while the numbers of new confirmed cases begin to increase again, then the yuan will be even weaker against the dollar. The US dollar has been supported YTS by a host of tailwinds, although Friday's data took some wind out of its sails, with the DXY dropping from the highest level in a decade, a few points from the 100 level in the DXY, by 0.70% to a low of 99.23. This week will give us more to go on from the economic data side of things with the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure – PCE Inflation.  USDCNH levels              

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0246 versus Friday's fix at 7.0210.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0246 versus Friday's fix at 7.0210.

AUD/USD trades mildly weak to 0.6610 during the early Monday. Even so, the pair remains near 11-year low as global market players continue to adhere t

AUD/USD nears the lowest in 11 years, tries to bounces off Friday’s bottom.Risk-tone remains heavy as coronavirus spreads outside China, ASX 200 down more than 2.0%.Updates that no fresh cases of the epidemic were registered on Sunday seem to favor the pullback.Global updates concerning the contagion will be the key.AUD/USD trades mildly weak to 0.6610 during the early Monday. Even so, the pair remains near 11-year low as global market players continue to adhere to risk aversion amid fears of coronavirus. No cases off-late but fears refrain to recede… The Global Times and the World Health Organization (WHO) shared the news that no fresh coronavirus cases have been registered on Sunday. This might have helped the pair to bounce off the multi-year low during the recent trades. However, risk-tone remains heavy as a widespread outbreak in coronavirus cases from Italy during the weekend, from three to 132 in a matter of days, threaten the trade sentiment. Also contributing to the risk-off could be the presumptive case from Ontario and rising numbers from Japan (838 by the end of February 23). In order to counter the contagion, China’s trade council issued 3,325 force majeure certificates to the firms affected due to the epidemic. The same is likely to negatively affect China’s commitment to the US as a part of the phase-one deal even if both the sides recently turned down any such prospects. While portraying the market’s risk-off, Australia’s ASX 200 index declines more than 2.0% to 6,990 whereas S&P 500 Futures also lose 1.22% to 3,298 by the press time. Even if Chinese efforts to tame the epidemic might offer intermediate pullbacks to the Aussie pair, broad risk aversion can keep exerting downside pressure. As a result, traders will keep eyes on the macro headlines concerning the Chinese disease that has recently challenged the global economy. Technical Analysis The February 10 low near 0.6660 acts as the immediate upside barrier while early-March 2009 high surrounding 0.6560 can offer nearby support during the pair’s declines below 0.6585.  

The US equity index futures are flashing red along with the Asian shares while gold is gaining ground on reports showing the number of coronavirus cas

Risk-off is in full swing in Asia with the major indices reporting notable losses. Gold and other haven assets are attracting bids. Coronavirus cases outside China are increasing, forcing investors to shun risk. The US equity index futures are flashing red along with the Asian shares while gold is gaining ground on reports showing the number of coronavirus cases outside of China has increased. At press time, the futures on the S&P 500 are down 1.28% or 42 points, while Australia's ASX 200 and South Korea's Kospi are shedding 2% and 2.58%, respectively.  Gold is currently trading at $1,662 per Oz, representing a 1.12% gain on the day, having hit a high of $1,681 an hour ago.  In the FX markets, the South Korean won is facing selling pressure. The currency fell to 1,218.35 against the dollar, the weakest since August earlier today.  The anti-risk yen, however, has erased early gains, as evidenced by USD/JPY's recovery from 111.27 to 111.57. The flight to safety could be associated with the emergence of clusters of infection in new countries including South Korea, Italy, and Iran, as noted by the Wall Street Journal.  South Korea has reportedly seen a 20-fold increase in the number of infections in the five days. Meanwhile, Italy canceled some public events after coronavirus infections rose to 140 despite lockdown in the North. Additionally, reports are doing the rounds that millions of small businesses in China are facing a cash crunch may collapse if banks don't act.  The risk sentiment may find some relief if the Chinese authorities step up policy support to help cushion the blow to the economy from a coronavirus outbreak

GBP/JPY stays mildly weak to 1.2950 during the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the pair fails to extend Friday’s bounce while staying below 100-

GBP/USD registers another failure to cross 100-day SMA.A short-term falling trend line adds to the resistance.Bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful amid a lower high formation since the month’s start.GBP/JPY stays mildly weak to 1.2950 during the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the pair fails to extend Friday’s bounce while staying below 100-day SMA. Not only multiple failures to cross 100-day SMA but a short-term descending resistance line portraying the lower high pattern since the month’s start, as well as bearish MACD, also favor the sellers. That said, the NZD/USD prices may now revisit 50% Fibonacci retracement of October-December 2019 upside, at 1.2854, a break of which could further push the bears towards November 2019 low of 1.2768. On the upside, a downward sloping trend line since February 03, at 1.2995 will challenge buyers beyond a 100-day SMA level of 1.2960. If at all the quote manages to rise past-1.2995, also clears 1.3000 round-figure, it can then aim for February 13 top surrounding 1.3070. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

EUR/USD could see a notable corrective bounce if the spot manages to take out the resistance at 1.0864. A move above that level would validate or conf

EUR/USD's weekly chart is reporting weakening of the downside bias. A break above 1.0864 would confirm seller exhaustion and could yield a corrective move higher. EUR/USD could see a notable corrective bounce if the spot manages to take out the resistance at 1.0864.  A move above that level would validate or confirm the seller exhaustion at 34-month lows signaled by the last week's hammer candle, which occurs when the period begins on a pessimistic note but ends with optimism.  The descending 10-week average, currently at 1.1012, will likely come into play if the seller exhaustion is confirmed with a move above 1.0864 On the downside, the previous week's low of 1.0778 is the level to beat for the sellers. Acceptance under that level would imply a continuation of the sell-off.  Weekly chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

The price of oil has been dominated by the risk-off themes circulation global financial and commodity markets while the US dollar has been on the ramp

WTI falls to a session low in a bearish opening gap of $51.70.Coronavirus weighing on risk appetite at the start of the week.  The price of oil has been dominated by the risk-off themes circulation global financial and commodity markets while the US dollar has been on the rampage for the bet part of this year so far. At the time of writing, West Texas Intermediate crude is trading at $52.09 having fallen from a high of $52.59 to a session low in a bearish gap of $51.70. The coronavirus is doing the rounds again at the start of this week as the number of cases world-wide, as well as deaths, are increasing. We have seen an increase for mainland China since the 17th Jan move from 41 cases to Feb 1st 14,380 and a death toll of 304, while the latest numbers shown for 21st Feb, 76,288 and 2,345 deaths. However, there are now cases in various countries and the world. More on that here: Italy's confirmed cases surged from three on Friday morning to more than 130 by SundayWhat you need to know for the open: Coronavirus risk-off themes rule the wavesCoronavirus could be the straw that broke the camel's back Some of the world's biggest economies are already on the brink of recession and a number of smaller economies that are hurting, too. However, there is not widespread panic in the markets, yet, although the risk-off theme is dominant. Markets are looking to world authorities to preempt the economic impacts and act accordingly, pumping enough stimulus around to prevent a global recession. However, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and other central banks may have fewer monetary tools to deploy and are counting on increased fiscal stimulus from governments – this is where markets could be wrong. Markets are wagering that the combination of fiscal and monetary measures will again prevent the worst, but if this has been a grave miscalculation, then we are likely to see a catastrophic impact on energy prices among a fall-out in global financial and commodity markets. Remember, we are in the tenth year of a seven-year cycle while facing slowing growth, (just look at Japan's and China's expected GDP) growing debt and rising geopolitical uncertainty – the coronavirus could be the straw that broke the camel's back.  "Before energy markets can make a sustainable move higher, an OPEC+ response is going to be needed at the March meeting, and thus far Russia is seemingly reluctant to participate in further curtailments," analysts at TD Securities explained. "On the CTA front, we do not expect any material moves, while gasoline is trading in whipsaw territory, which could see buying above $1.635/gal." WTI levels                

NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6320, down 0.43%, during the Asian trading session on Monday. That said, the pair gapped down from 0.6348 to 0.6319 at the st

NZD/USD struggles to justify the latest pullback from the lowest in four months.Downbeat New Zealand Retail Sales, coronavirus keep sellers hopeful.A light economic calendar will keep the market’s focus on coronavirus headlines.NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6320, down 0.43%, during the Asian trading session on Monday. That said, the pair gapped down from 0.6348 to 0.6319 at the start of this week’s trading. With the increase in coronavirus cases outside China, traders rush to risk-safety while selling commodities and commodity-linked currencies including the New Zealand dollar. While a surge in coronavirus cases from Asia grabbed the market’s attention during the later part of the last week, a multi-fold increase in Italy’s confirmed cases triggered the risk-off at the week’s start. During the weekend, the Washington Post came out with the news that coronavirus cases from Italy spiked from three to 132 in a matter of days. This fuelled concerns that the epidemic is spreading outside Asia and is now affecting the key global economy. Following that, news of a new presumptive case from Ontario and efforts by China’s trade council kept the trade sentiment under pressure. China’s trade council issued 3,325 force majeure certificates to protect firms from legal damages as they had to forgo multiple days of activity due to the deadly coronavirus. It should be noted that despite coronavirus hurting China’s manufacturing activity, policymakers from the US and China showed optimism that Beijing will meet the targets agreed in the phase-one deal. However, this is less likely to happen considering the recent actions in and out of China. With this, the market’s risk-tone remains heavy with the S&P 500 Futures down 1.30% to 3,295. Also weighing on the NZD/USD prices is the fourth quarter (Q4) Retail Sales from New Zealand. The headline figures slipped below upwardly revised 1.7% to 0.7% QoQ whereas Retail Sales ex-autos declined from 1.9% to 0.5%. Moving on, a lack of major data/events on the economic calendar will keep traders on the lookout of any fresh coronavirus news to determine near-term trade direction. Technical Analysis Sustained trading below November 2019 low of 0.6315, also breaking 0.6300 round-figure, will recall October 2019 bottom surrounding 0.6240. On the upside, buyers are likely to avoid entry unless breaking February 11 low of 0.6377.  

GBP/JPY bounces off the intra-day low of 144.07 to 144.50 by the press time of early Monday. The pair recently crossed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement but

GBP/JPY recovers from the intra-day low, extends bounces off 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October-December 2020 upside.Prices remain above 200-day EMA since mid-October 2019.An upside break of ascending trend line from December 31, 2019, can challenge October 2019 top.GBP/JPY bounces off the intra-day low of 144.07 to 144.50 by the press time of early Monday. The pair recently crossed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement but fails to gain momentum beyond short-term resistance-line. However, RSI remains in the normal territory and favors further upside of the quote. That said, buyers will look for entry beyond the aforementioned resistance line, at 145.00 now, a break of which could aim for December 13, 2019 low near 145.50. Though, the pair’s sustained run-up beyond 145.50 might not refrain to challenge the late-2019 top close to 148.00. On the downside, pair’s declines below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, at 143.80, could trigger fresh pullback towards February 05 high around 143.40 as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 141.23. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s declines below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement will be challenged by a 200-day EMA level of 140.34 and 140.00 round-figure. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Gold prices rallied to $1,681.25, the highest since February 2013, during early Monday. The yellow metal recently benefited from the rise in the coron

Gold prices surge to the highest levels since March 2013.Increasing cases of coronavirus outside China have recently weighed on the market’s risk-tone.Updates concerning the epidemic will be the key to watch.Gold prices rallied to $1,681.25, the highest since February 2013, during early Monday. The yellow metal recently benefited from the rise in the coronavirus cases outside China while no respite from the contagion inside the dragon nation earlier fuelled the safe-haven. It should be noted that the bullion’s prices have been pulled back to $1667.18 by the press time. Read: What you need to know for the open: Coronavirus risk-off themes rule the waves Coronavirus keeps fueling the yellow metal… With the fears of China’s coronavirus taking a toll on the global economy, traders rush to risk-safety. The same has been pushing the yellow metal’s prices to multi-year tops off-late. The latest cause of concern was a multi-fold rise in the numbers of coronavirus infected cases from Italy. As per the details, cases from Italy surged three on Friday morning to more than 130 by Sunday. Even so, China’s President Xi Jinping and the World Health Organization (WHO) continues to try to placate traders by showing optimism that China will be able to tackle the epidemic. However, the market’s risk-tone pays no attention to such news as S&P 500 Futures decline 1.24% to 3,297 by the press time. Markets are too sensitive to the coronavirus headlines in recent days and hence any more fearsome news could keep the gold prices heading towards the north. Technical Analysis The yellow metal is now en-route to 2013 high surrounding $1,698 with March 2013 top nearing $1613 acting as the nearby support.  

The Telegraph recently spread the news that the UK PM Boris Johnson is set to kick start trade talks with the US within the next two weeks, amid frust

The Telegraph recently spread the news that the UK PM Boris Johnson is set to kick start trade talks with the US within the next two weeks, amid frustration in Number 10 at EU “time-wasting.” Key quotes The Prime Minister will next week (March 2) publish the Government’s ‘red lines’ for its US trade negotiations which are expected to push back on US demands for its drug and health firms to have greater access to the British market. In an apparent nod to US concerns over Britain’s tough stance on food and agricultural standards, George Eustice, the Environment Secretary, on Sunday appeared to soften the UK’s resistance to importing American chemically-treated chicken. FX implications While the news should ideally help the GBP/USD pair, the buyers and the sellers are jostling around 1.2950 by the press time of early Monday as markets are more interested in coronavirus updates amid risk-off.

Early on Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the news, relying on a tweet from Israeli military spokesman, stating that Israel carried out s

Early on Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the news, relying on a tweet from Israeli military spokesman, stating that Israel carried out strikes against the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad in Syria and the Gaza Strip on Sunday. Key quotes “A short time ago the (Israel Defense Forces) carried out a series of strikes against terrorist targets belonging to the Islamic Jihad organization in southern Damascus in addition to tens of terrorist targets belonging to the Islamic Jihad group in Gaza Strip.” FX implications While the news should ideally fuel the energy prices, WTI buyers fear the demand depletion due to the on-going coronavirus epidemic. The black gold seesaws around $53.50 by the press time.

AUD/JPY pulls back from the intra-day low of 73.28 to 73.66 amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote portrays a bounce from the two-week-ol

AUD/JPY registers three-day losing streak.A confluence of 200-bar SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement limits short-term upside.Bearish MACD, a failure to register major recovery keep sellers hopeful.AUD/JPY pulls back from the intra-day low of 73.28 to 73.66 amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote portrays a bounce from the two-week-old rising trend line as well as 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its January-February declines. However, the strength of the recent U-turn seems to be weak as the MACD still indicates bearish signals, which in turn pushes the sellers to look for entry below 73.28 levels. That said, 73.00 and 72.80 could be the next on the bears’ radars ahead of the monthly bottom near 72.40. On the upside, a confluence of 200-bar SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 74.35 acts as the key resistance, a break of which can push the quote towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 74.80. AUD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

USD/JPY declines to 111.45, with the intra-day low of 111.28, amid the initial Asian session on Monday. That said, the pair stays under pressure as co

USD/JPY remains on the back foot after Friday’s U-turn from the 10-month’s top.Rising cases of coronavirus outside China, especially in Europe, has been the major concern off-late.Chinese President, WHO keeps trying to placate traders but failed to boost trade sentiment.Off in Japan could keep traders searching coronavirus headlines for fresh impulse.USD/JPY declines to 111.45, with the intra-day low of 111.28, amid the initial Asian session on Monday. That said, the pair stays under pressure as coronavirus pushes traders towards risk-safety whereas the pullback in the US dollar after Friday’s US PMI exerts additional downside pressure on the quote. Read: What you need to know for the open: Coronavirus risk-off themes rule the waves Another recession? The fourth quarter (Q4) GDP figures renewed worries of recession inside the world’s third-largest economy while the fact that Japan is the biggest victim of coronavirus outside China (while counting cases of the Diamond Princess cruise) also keeps USD/JPY traders worried. As per the latest numbers, there have been a total of 738 infected cases and 3 deaths (including 639 cases on Diamond Princess cruise ship and 99 on land). China contributed nearly 19% of the total Japanese exports during 2019 and a deadly virus outbreak there could have a larger blow to the lingering economy that recently registered Q4 GDP as -1.6%. Xi, the WHO fail to placate traders… China’s President Xi Jinping and the World Health Organization (WHO) continues to try to placate traders but gained no sympathy as the increase in corona cases from Italy triggered fears that the bloc is under danger. The latest comments from the WHO suggest that no new countries reported coronavirus cases in the past 24 hours whereas Chinese President Xi Jinping mentioned that efforts to control coronavirus have reached a critical stage. Read: G20 Summary: Top economies coordinated response to the coronavirus outbreak Looking forward, Japanese markets are off today due to the Emperor’s Birthday and hence traders will keep eyes on the coronavirus updates for near-term direction. However, the pair is likely to remain under pressure following Friday’s pullback in the US dollar after marking mixed PMI data. Technical Analysis FXStreet’s Ross J Burland mentions that the quote is nearing a familiar territory while spotting the monthly chart: The 2015-2020 downtrend has been taken put and bulls are controlling with a  weekly close above 110.31. Bulls can target a run beyond 112.50s for a move towards 114.55, 2018 high.   

New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ) fell from previous 1.8% to 0.5% in 4Q

New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) declined to 0.7% in 4Q from previous 1.6%

The world's top economies called on Saturday for a coordinated response to the coronavirus outbreak, which the IMF predicted would lower China's growt

The world's top economies called on Saturday for a coordinated response to the coronavirus outbreak, which the IMF predicted would lower China's growth this year to 5.6% and shave 0.1 percentage points from global growth. The latest draft communique gives less prominence than an earlier version to the outbreak as a growth risk, saying only that the G20 would "... enhance global risk monitoring, including the recent outbreak of COVID-19," the medical acronym for the coronavirus. We are likely to see a risk-off response for the start of the week – more on that here: What you need to know for the open: Coronavirus risk-off themes rule the waves. Key notes from G20 China's growth seen at 5.6%, global growth down 0.1 pct point. IMF looking at scenarios of more persistent, widespread outbreak. Most G20 finance ministers in Riyadh mentioned risk from virus. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Sunday central bankers will look at options for responding to the fast-spreading coronavirus as needed. Mnuchin told reporters too early to speculate about the longer-term impact of the deadly outbreak, but more would be known in three to four weeks. "I’m not going to comment on monetary policy, but obviously central bankers will look at various different options as this has an impact on the economy," Mnuchin said. Mnuchin says should have better understanding of impact of coronavirus in 3-4 weeks. Mnuchin says we should do everything we can to prevent spread of virus. Mnuchin says US opposes discriminatory digital services taxes; will respond with investigations, potential retaliatory tariffs. Mnuchin says working to reach solution for digital tax reform at OECD. Mnuchin says a lot of discussion about coronavirus impact at G20 meetings; no question it's going to have some short-term impact. Mnuchin says main u.s. focus on trade front is to reach trade deal with Britain; will also negotiate with EU. Mnuchin says central bankers will look at options for responding to coronavirus if needed. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva presented the outlook to central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20 countries, but said the IMF continued to look at more dire scenarios. The China outlook is 0.4 percentage points lower than it was last month. China reported a sharp fall in new deaths and cases on Saturday. Japan's finance minister said almost all the G20 countries mentioned the risk posed by the coronavirus during the gathering in Riyadh and that he had warned of a serious impact on the global economy if it spreads further. A source familiar with the discussions said the G20 countries had not made plans for any separate committee or meetings to coordinate a response.  
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