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Forex نیوز ٹائم لائن

پير، 8 مارچ، 2021

NZD/USD refreshes intraday low while taking offers near 0.7150, down 0.23% intraday, during early Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair extends last week

NZD/USD stays depressed around yearly bottom, bears cheer earlier break of 50-day SMA, one-year-old ascending trend line.Falling RSI line, sustained break of key support confluence, now resistance, favor sellers.Monthly top, January’s high add to the upside filters.NZD/USD refreshes intraday low while taking offers near 0.7150, down 0.23% intraday, during early Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair extends last week’s break below 50-day SMA and an ascending trend line from March 2020. Given the descending RSI line backing the downside move, NZD/USD sellers are on their way south to the 100-day SMA level of 0.7066. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s further weakness past-100-day SMA will be questioned by a horizontal area around 0.7000 threshold comprising multiple levels marked since late-November 2020. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to cross 0.7215 on a daily closing basis before eyeing the monthly top near 0.7310. Also acting as an upside barrier is January’s high surrounding 0.7315, a break of which should recall the 0.7400 round-figure on the chart. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The UK lost market share in the US, Germany and China, thanks to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit chaos on trade, Reuters repor

The UK lost market share in the US, Germany and China, thanks to the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit chaos on trade, Reuters reports, citing a report by Aston University’s Lloyd’s Banking Group Centre for Business Prosperity. Key findings “In some key export destinations – Germany, the UK and China - the UK seems to have suffered a sharper decline, experienced a slower recovery, and seen its global competitiveness dwindle.” “The UK’s decline in exports to the U.S. appeared the sharpest in both absolute and relative terms and the most prolonged among the major European countries (except for France).” “The combination of COVID, Brexit and the UK’s long-term productivity challenges will put British businesses in an adverse position for the foreseeable future.” Market reaction The findings of the above report is likely weighing on the pound alongside the rebound in the US dollar across the board, as the market mood worsens. GBP/USD drops 0.17% to test the daily lows of 1.3811, having hit a daily high at 1.3866 earlier on the session.

One-month risk reversals on EUR/USD, which measures the spread between call and put price, fell to -0.438 on Monday to show the strongest bias for eur

One-month risk reversals on EUR/USD, which measures the spread between call and put price, fell to -0.438 on Monday to show the strongest bias for euro weakness since Feb. 4, according to data source Reuters.  The gauge hit a high of 0.02 on Feb. 10 and has been falling ever since, indicating increased demand for put options or bearish bets used to hedge against downside risks in the underlying asset.  EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.09, having dropped by 1.34% last week. 

USD/CNH is trading just short of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at 6.5232, having failed to close above the key hurdle on Friday. A

USD/CNH flirts with the 100-day SMA hurdle for the second trading day. Technical indicators favor a breakout above the key resistance. USD/CNH is trading just short of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at 6.5232, having failed to close above the key hurdle on Friday.  A convincing move above the SMA would validate the upside break of a multi-month long descending trendline confirmed last week and open the doors to the 200-day SMA, currently at 6.72. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is also supporting the bullish view with an above-50 print.  A close below the higher low of 6.4581 created on March 4 would put the bears back into the driver's seat.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged US President Joe Biden’s administration to stop meddling into Beijing affairs while warning them to tread caref

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged US President Joe Biden’s administration to stop meddling into Beijing affairs while warning them to tread carefully on the Taiwan issue, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.   developing story ....

Gold is trading near $1,713 per ounce at press time, up 0.88% on the day, having signaled indecision or seller exhaustion with a classic Doji candle o

Gold rises in Asia, confirming seller fatigue signaled by Friday's Doji candle. The US Senate approves Biden's stimulus program, putting a bid under the yellow metal. Gold is trading near $1,713 per ounce at press time, up 0.88% on the day, having signaled indecision or seller exhaustion with a classic Doji candle on Friday.  The yellow metal, a proven store of value asset, looks to have picked up a bid in response to the U.S. Senate's passage of President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, which now heads back to the House for clearance. If approved, the bill will pave the way for $1,400 checks and jobless aid. Fiscal stimulus is inflationary. The gains, however, could be restricted or reversed if the US bond yields continue to rise, diluting the yellow metal's appeal as an inflation hedge.  The 10-year yield is currently seen at 1.58%, having reached a 12-month high of 1.62% on Friday on the back of upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls data.  According to some analysts, the stimulus passage, coupled with the strong US data and the blowout China exports data released over the weekend could lift yields.  Technical levels  

AUD/USD keeps Friday’s bounce off the 11-week-old support line, currently up 0.23% intraday near 0.7710, during early Monday. Although strong RSI favo

AUD/USD snaps three-day losing streak, picks up bids off-late.50-day SMA, short-term falling trend line test the buyers.Ascending trend line from December 21 probe bears.AUD/USD keeps Friday’s bounce off the 11-week-old support line, currently up 0.23% intraday near 0.7710, during early Monday. Although strong RSI favors the AUD/USD buyers, a convergence of 50-day SMA and a falling trend line from February 25, near 0.7745, guards the quote’s immediate upside. Should the pair rallies beyond 0.7745 on a daily closing, the monthly high of 0.7838 and the 0.7900 threshold lure AUD/USD bulls. Meanwhile, failures to cross the stated resistance may take clues from the US dollar strength and attack the multi-day-old support line, at 0.7637 now. If at all the AUD/USD bears manage to conquer the key support trend line, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.7560 should be watched closely. Overall, AUD/USD bears seem to have tired but there is no major support for the bulls’ entries. AUD/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

“Basis of China's economic recovery not solid yet,” Ning, Vice-Chair at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s state pla

“Basis of China's economic recovery not solid yet,” Ning, Vice-Chair at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s state planner, said on Monday.     more to come ....

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer an upbeat view on the US economy, citing that recession in the world’s largest economy ‘Is over’ due to the following

  Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer an upbeat view on the US economy, citing that recession in the world’s largest economy ‘Is over’ due to the following reasons: “The current speed of the vaccination rollout.” “New fiscal stimulus still to come and imminent spring weather.”  “It's difficult not to imagine an economy that's on fire later this year and long story short is the recession is effectively over, the US banking giant noted. Related readsUS Senate passes $1.9 trillion covid relief bill after marathon votesUS stimulus progress likely to lift yields 

The rally in the US Treasury yields may gather pace with President Joe Biden on the verge of getting his massive fiscal stimulus program approved by C

The rally in the US Treasury yields may gather pace with President Joe Biden on the verge of getting his massive fiscal stimulus program approved by Congress.  The US Senate passed President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan on Saturday, paving the way for $1,400 checks and jobless aid, according to The New York Times. The bill now heads back to the House for clearance.  The risk sentiment looks to have improved somewhat with progress on the fiscal stimulus front. The dollar is trading soft against most majors and the futures tied to the S&P 500 are trading 0.5% higher.  The relief, however, could be short-lived, as some analysts expect the stimulus to put upward pressure on yields.  “The news is likely to put upwards pressure again on yields at the start of the week as the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion proposal is close to being passed in full, rather than being reduced as earlier expected,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore Ltd, according to Bloomberg.  The US 10-year yield is seen at 1.58% at press time, having clocked a 12-month high of 1.622% on Friday on the back of an upbeat Nonfarm payrolls report. 

S&P 500 Futures seesaws around 3,845, up 0.15% intraday, during early Monday. In doing so, the risk barometer begins the week on a front foot while ju

S&P 500 Futures cheer hopes of economic recovery even as reflation fears challenge the bulls.Sino-American tension, Houthi-Saudi tussle question the moves amid a light calendar.S&P 500 Futures seesaws around 3,845, up 0.15% intraday, during early Monday. In doing so, the risk barometer begins the week on a front foot while justifying the US policymakers’ push to the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus. US Senate finally backed President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid relief package with 50-49 votes during late last week. The bill, called American Rescue Plan Act, will now be discussed in the House and maybe voted on Tuesday. Elsewhere, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the US, per Bloomberg, to “stop crossing lines and playing with fire” on Taiwan. On the same line, Iran-backed Houthi rebels say they targeted Saudi oil port, said the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The economic calendar is mostly silent after the latest Japanese Trade Balance for January,
¥-130.1 B, crossing paths with China’s Trade Balance (USD terms) for January-February, up 60%. Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields rise 3.1 basis points (bps) to 1.585% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific stay positive by the press time. Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on the US traders’ reaction to the market-positive news, especially after Friday’s upbeat NFP. However, further run-up in the US Treasury yields may challenge the bulls and favor the US dollar upside.

As per the prior analysis, EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Breakeven worst-case scenario, target 130.4, the bulls remain in play. However, the sideways action

EUR/JPY is trapped in a sideways 4-hour environment with bulls banking on a break of resistance still. Longer-term charts illustrate the bullish bias. As per the prior analysis, EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Breakeven worst-case scenario, target 130.4, the bulls remain in play. However, the sideways action is a risk as the price is unable to penetrate the resistance on the 4-hour time frame. The following illustrates the scenario and the longer-term time frames that deplete the bullish prospects are a risk to the long position: Monthly chart Weekly chart Daily chart 4-hour chart

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.4795 versus Friday's fix at 6.4904.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.4795 versus Friday's fix at 6.4904.

USD/CAD trades near 1.2633 at press time, representing a 0.14% drop on the day. The US Dollar is nursing moderate losses across the board with Preside

USD/CAD trades near 1.2633 at press time, representing a 0.14% drop on the day. The US Dollar is nursing moderate losses across the board with President Joe Biden on the verge of passing the record $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan.  The pair's daily chart shows the bulls failed to establish a foothold above the trendline falling from March 202 highs on Friday. Also, the pair faced rejection at the trendline hurdle early today before falling to 1.2633.  A strong close above the descending trendline would imply an end of the 12-month bearish trend and expose resistance at 1.2881 (Jan. 28 high), above which, the focus would shift to 1.30.  As of now, the pair looks south. Support is seen at 1.2575 (March 4 low) and 1.2468 (Feb. 25 low).  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

AUD/NZD is trapped between familiar resistance and support in the lower time frames having met daily resistance within a compelling bearish bias. The

AUD/NZD bears are in play at critical daily resistance.Bulls are backing off at this juncture, with familiar support in focus. AUD/NZD is trapped between familiar resistance and support in the lower time frames having met daily resistance within a compelling bearish bias.  The following is a top-down analysis that illustrates how and why the price can deteriorate towards a measured downside daily target.  Monthly chart  Weekly chart As illustrated, the price is meeting old weekly support which is seeing bears in play. Daily chart According to the daily price action, the bears will likely remain in play at this juncture.  4-hour chart However, bears need to get through a hard support level first. In doing so, the old support is compelling while the price is resisted at the 21-SMA.

According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday, speculators increased net bearish positions on U.S. 10-year Treasury note (

According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday, speculators increased net bearish positions on U.S. 10-year Treasury note (US bond) futures to 95,611 contracts in the week ended March 2.  A week earlier, speculators held a net long position of 2,789 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.  Therefore, the rise in the net shorts in the 10-year futures indicates positioning for a rise in the yield. "The markets are betting against the $21tn US bond market," macro analyst Holger Zschaepitz tweet in response to the CFTC data.  The 10-year yield rose from 1.34% to 1.39% in the week ended March 2 and extended gains to above 1.6% on Friday on the back of an upbeat Nonfarm payrolls data.  Yields could rise further, with the US President Joe Biden on the verge of passing a historic $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan.

Silver prices waver around $25.40, fading the initial run-up to $25.56, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white metal confronts 100-day

Silver struggles to keep week-start gap-up but snaps three-day losing streak.Bearish MACD, downbeat RSI joins sustained break of yearly support line, now resistance, to favor silver sellers.Yearly low, 200-day SMA will be a tough nut to crack for bears.Silver prices waver around $25.40, fading the initial run-up to $25.56, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white metal confronts 100-day SMA while also keeping the last week’s break of an ascending trend line from March 2020. Given the bearish MACD and descending RSI line join the previous week’s downside break of the key support line and 100-day SMA, silver prices are likely to remain depressed. However, fresh selling can wait until the bears conquer January 27 low near $24.70 as it triggered the commodity’s bounce during Friday. Also acting as the strong downside barrier is a confluence of 200-day SMA and the yearly low near $24.20. Meanwhile, a daily closing beyond the 100-day SMA level of $25.45 will need to cross the previous support line, at $25.80 now, to recall the silver buyers. Following that, lows marked during late February around $26.20 should test the bulls targeting the monthly top beyond $27.00. Silver daily chart Trend: Bearish  

WTI wavers around $67.00, following its run-up to the multi-month high of $67.69, during Monday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark portrayed a week

WTI eases after week-start gap-up to multi-month high.Saudi Arabia increases oil prices for Asia, Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they targeted Saudi oil ports.US Senate passage $1.9 trillion covid stimulus, House is expected to vote on Tuesday.Risk news will be the key amid a light calendar.WTI wavers around $67.00, following its run-up to the multi-month high of $67.69, during Monday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark portrayed a week-start gap-up while testing $67.00 as fundamentals concerning Saudi Arabia and the US coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package played their role. Also favoring the oil bulls could be China’s trade figures. Though, a lack of major data/events as well as the Sino-American tussle probes the quote’s immediate upside. With 50-49 votes, the US Senate managed to approve President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid relief package, known as American Rescue Plan Act. Although the move backs reflation fears and may help the US dollar to rise further, S&P 500 Futures cheered the passage of the much-awaited stimulus and favored the commodities off-late. Further, energy buyers also benefited from news suggesting Saudi Arabia’s hike in the official selling price (OSP) for its Arab Light crude to Asia by $1.40 per barrel. On the same line, Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) news suggesting Iran-backed Houthi military targeted Saudi Arabia’s oil port and facilities also favored the WTI upside. It’s worth mentioning that China’s 60% jump in Trade Balance (USD terms) during January and February, to $103.25B, offered extra strength to the prices of the black gold. Meanwhile, China urges the US to not meddle in Taiwan and a lack of major data/events in Asia probe WTI traders off-late. Looking forward, oil traders should wait for the US traders’ reaction to the latest passage of the covid relief package. Though, the bulls can keep reins amid expectations of further economic recovery, backed by the stimulus and vaccine hopes, as well as challenges to the oil supply, due to the turmoil in Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ production cuts until at least April. Technical analysis Unless witnessing a downside break of February top near $63.75, WTI bulls can aim for $70.00 comprising highs marked during late July and October of 2018.  

After the heavy bid in the greenback at the end of the week's sessions following Federal reserve's Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, the yen is showing

USD/JPY meets resistance in the open this week as traders weigh the underlying of the US economy.Weekly support is in focus within the heavily bid environment.  After the heavy bid in the greenback at the end of the week's sessions following Federal reserve's Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, the yen is showing some resilience as the mighty dollar gives back a little breathing room to G10-FX to start the week. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 108.40 and better bid from the opening price down at 108.26. The price met a nine-month high after the US nonfarm Payrolls payrolls data on Friday, but the market is weighing whether the reality of the situation doesn't contradict the hype.  US February nonfarm payrolls trounced expectations and January’s data were revised up, but the underlying fact remains that there are still millions of the population permanently out of work.  As lockdowns ease, people fortunate enough to be able to return to their jobs will do so, but many still do not have a job to go back to. A spike in jobs, in the interim, should be expected, but the forward outlook is so much more dubious. As noted by analysts at ANZ Bank noted, ''most of the job gains came in leisure and hospitality (particularly food services and drinking places) as the COVID infection rate receded,'' given the easing lockdown measures. However, the trade deficit paints a bearish backdrop to the data.  Meanwhile, over the weekend, US President Joe Biden’s $1.9trn stimulus passed the Senate 50-49 and it will go to the House on Tuesday. Overall, the stimulus is twice the size of Obama’s 2008-09 package and the US stock markets will likely find comfort in the balancing act between this and the threat of higher borrowing costs.  USD/JPY technical analysis as it stands, the price is meeting 4-hour resistance and the daily weekly territory is compelling. 

Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis fell from previous ¥965.1B to ¥-130.1B in January

There is little downside potential left in this cross as the bears penetrate the deep supply on the monthly chart. The following top-down analysis ill

EUR/CAD bulls about to step-up at critical monthly demand. The 4-hour chart offers an upside confluence target at a daily 61.8% Fibo.There is little downside potential left in this cross as the bears penetrate the deep supply on the monthly chart. The following top-down analysis illustrates where the next bullish play could unfold. Monthly chart The monthly chart is so far heavily bearish, but the bulls could well throw in the towel at this juncture.  Weekly chart The 38.2% Fibonacci has a compelling confluence with prior weekly support.  Daily chart This upside potential translates into a 61.8% confluence as well.  4-hour chart The conditions remain bearish for the time being, but a shift in the environment is what the bulls are waiting upon.  

Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥646.8B below forecasts (¥1229.6B) in January

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) up to 6.2% in February from previous 6.1%

Gold begins the week’s trading on a front-foot while crossing the $1,700 threshold, currently around $1,713, amid the initial Asian session on Monday.

Gold picks up bids while consolidating losses from nine-month low.US Senate passed $1.9 trillion covid stimulus, House vote expected to Tuesday.China warns America on Taiwan, Houthi Rebels accept attacks on Saudi oil ports.Risk news will be the key amid a light calendar.Gold begins the week’s trading on a front-foot while crossing the $1,700 threshold, currently around $1,713, amid the initial Asian session on Monday. With its latest run-up in prices, the yellow metal seems to have cheered the US Senate’s passage of the coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package, as well as responding to the from China and concerning Saudi Arabia. US inches closer to the much-awaited stimulus… With the 50-49 votes for the bill known as American Rescue Plan Act, US democrats are up for rolling out the much-awaited fiscal relief. The $1.9 trillion aid package returns to the House after the Senate’s passage and is likely to be voted on Tuesday before running for President’s sign and being the law. Other than the hopes of further fund inflow, which recently propelled the S&P 500 Futures and favored risks, the precious metal also benefited due to its safe-haven appeal. The reasons could be traced from China and Yemen. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the US, per Bloomberg, to “stop crossing lines and playing with fire” on Taiwan whereas Iran-backed Houthi rebels say they targeted Saudi oil port, said the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Elsewhere, China’s latest trade figures for January and February, published during the weekend suggest a 60% jump and favor the Antipodeans. It should, however, be noted that the recent risk-on mood may fade if the market players chose to analyze the impact likely fund inflow due to the US stimulus. The reason could be traced from the reflation fears and the jump in the US Treasury yields. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events will keep gold traders directed to the risk news. As a result, Treasury yields and the US dollar moves should be observed closely. Technical analysis Friday’s Doji candlestick on the daily chart near June 08 low suggests the yellow metal’s corrective pullback. Though, the gold buyers shouldn’t be hopeful unless the quote crosses November 2020 low near $1,765.  

In its latest client note, the Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets, cited China’s ro

In its latest client note, the Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), a US firm that manages circa US$1.9 trillion in assets, cited China’s rolling back of stimulus to be the reason behind the need for developed countries to keep the easy money flowing. The US firm initially cited China’s plan of a gradual, also early, scaling back of the stimulus, while also saying, “Policy tightening in China is already being felt domestically in the form of tighter money market liquidity, moderating private credit growth, and reduced government bond issuance.” The analytical piece also describes the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) economic forecasts and performance targeting as, “PBOC is targeting overall credit to grow in line with nominal GDP, implying the credit impulse will fall to around -3.5% of GDP by year-end, from a peak above 9% in the fourth quarter of 2020. All else equal, this may slow China's economic activity to below-trend levels by late 2022.” In the end, the report relies on the past performance of the global economy, mainly due to China, while confirming Beijing as the key engine of growth and said, “If past is prologue, developed countries may be required to maintain stimulus measures for longer than presently expected.” FX implications Given the need for further stimulus by the developed nations, cited in the report, the reflation fears should get stronger, which in turn helps the US dollar and weigh on commodities as well as Antipodeans.

GBP/USD is opening the week at a critical juncture. The monthly chart displays a positively bearish outlook while the 4-hour still has room to move hi

Bulls take hold of the open while the week's outlook spells a bearish divergence.Bears to take the baton in sessions to come. GBP/USD is opening the week at a critical juncture. The monthly chart displays a positively bearish outlook while the 4-hour still has room to move higher to meet key resistance. the following depicts the bullish outlook for the meanwhile, while the broader trend dominates. Monthly chart Weekly chart  Daily chart 4-hour chart At this juncture, the bulls can prosper for a little longer until the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last bearish impulse that meets prior support. 

GBP/JPY picks up bids to 150.00 during the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the quote again refrains from confirming a bearish pattern on t

GBP/JPY keeps Friday’s corrective pullback from 149.36, stays near to confirmation point of the bearish move.Normal RSI conditions suggest continuation of the north-side grind.MACD teases sellers, 100-bar SMA adds to the downside filters.GBP/JPY picks up bids to 150.00 during the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the quote again refrains from confirming a bearish pattern on the four-hour (4H) chart near the highest since April 2018. Given the strong RSI conditions battling the MACD signals that seem to lure bears, GBP/JPY is likely to grind inside the stated chart formation. As a result, the bears shouldn’t be in a hurry for profits and wait for a clear break for the stated triangle’s support line, at 149.50 now. Also acting as a downside filter is the 100-bar SMA level of 148.17. It should, however, be noted that the quote’s downside break of 148.17, also conquering the 148.00 round-figure, may not hesitate to challenge February’s low near 144.00. Meanwhile, 150.50 and the recently flashed multi-month high close to 150.75 can lure short-term GBP/JPY buyers. Though, the upper line of the triangle, currently around 150.81, may challenge the bulls before directing them to cross the 151.00 threshold. GBP/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

NZD/USD stays mostly unchanged from Friday’s closing near 0.7170, keeping bounce off yearly low flashed in January, during the initial Asian session o

NZD/USD keeps Friday’s corrective pullback without gaps at weekly open.Treasury yields stay strong near February 2020 high amid reflation fears.US dollar bulls cheered upbeat jobs report, reaction to Senate’s passage of stimulus awaited.China’s Trade Balance jumped 60% during January-February, no major data/events up for publishing in Asia.NZD/USD stays mostly unchanged from Friday’s closing near 0.7170, keeping bounce off yearly low flashed in January, during the initial Asian session on Monday. The quote dropped to the multi-day low of Friday as US employment data bolstered greenback bulls. However, the market is yet to respond to the weekend news suggesting the passage of coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus passage by the US Senate as China’s trade numbers test the pair sellers. Reaction to China Trade Balance, US Stimulus eyed … Having slipped to the multi-day low during Friday, in an initial reaction to the upbeat US employment data for February, NZD/USD bounced off afterward as equities cheered the 389K Nonfarm Payrolls and 6.2% Unemployment Rate from the world’s largest economy. The US data also probed the US Treasury yields near February 2020 high even as bond bears cheer reflation fears. It should, however, be noted that the weekend headlines conveying the much-awaited passage of US President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid stimulus by the Senate are yet to move to markets. As the news suggests heavy inflow of the funds, indirectly fueling the relfation fears, the US Treasury yields can stay strong and help the US dollar bulls to keep the reins. On the contrary, strong outcomes of China’s January-February trade numbers challenge the NZD/USD bears. As per the latest data, the headline Trade Balance in the US dollar terms grew to $103.25B versus the $60B forecast whereas Exports and Imports rallied beyond 15% and 38.9% market consensus to 22.2% and 60.6% respectively. It’s worth mentioning that comments from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, published via Bloomberg during the weekend, may exert additional downside pressure on the NZD/USD as the same suggests an escalation of the US-China tension. During his annual news briefing on Sunday, the Chinese diplomat urged the US, per the news, to “stop crossing lines and playing with fire” on Taiwan. Looking forward, light in Asia will keep risk catalysts on the driver’s seat. Hence, NZD/USD traders should keep their eyes on the US Treasury yields and the US dollar moves for the fresh direction. Technical analysis With a clear break of 0.7215-20 confluence comprising one-year-old support line and 50-day SMA, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to visit 100-day SMA around 0.7070.  

EUR/USD is decelerating in its current bearish impulse and the upside is compelling from support. The following illustrates the playbook. Monthly char

EUR/USD bulls in play from key support on the monthly time frame.Lower time frames depict the bullish outlook on a break of the hourly 10 SMA for the open.EUR/USD is decelerating in its current bearish impulse and the upside is compelling from support.  The following illustrates the playbook. Monthly chart Price has reached a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at monthly support.  Weekly chart The weekly depicts the outlook as well.  Daily chart  However, from a daily perspective, there is resistance to be concerned for. This offers a confluence of the 50% mean reversion and prior lows.  4-hour chart The 4-hour 10 SMA is a firm target in confluence with the daily chart's resistance.  1-hour chart The 1-hour time frame remains bearish but from support, the price can take out the 10-moving average and head towards resistance. 

Early Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with Saudi Arabian news on April crude oil official prices for Asia as well as attacks on oil port in R

Early Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with Saudi Arabian news on April crude oil official prices for Asia as well as attacks on oil port in Ras Tanura and missile attack near Saudi Aramco’s residential area in Dhahran. In the first news, Riyadh conveyed the official selling price (OSP) for its Arab Light crude to Asia, from state oil producer Aramco. The details suggest the addition of $1.40 per barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average, up to $0.40 from March. As per the additional data mentioned in the statement, quoted by Reuters, “Saudi Arabia set its Arab Light OSP to Northwest Europe at minus $2.20 per barrel against ICE Brent compared with minus $0.50 in March. The OSP to the United States was set at plus $0.95 a barrel over Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) for April, $0.10 above March’s premium.” On a different page, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry Spokesman confirmed, per Reuters, via state news agency SPA that a drone hit a petroleum tank farm at Ras Tanura port, one of the world’s largest oil shipping ports, and shrapnel from a ballistic missile fell near Saudi Aramco’s residential area in Dhahran. The official also mentioned that neither attack resulted in any injury or loss of life or property. Market implications While crossing $66.00 on Friday, WTI oil already probed April 2019 top. That said, oil trading is yet to kick-start the week and may aim to cross the 23-month peak near $66.60 backed by the news.
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