Forex نیوز ٹائم لائن

جمعه، 6 دسمبر، 2019

Gold prices again step back from 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) while declining to $1,475.60 ahead of Friday’s European session.

Gold prices fail to extend the latest pullback beyond 200-bar SMA.50% Fibonacci retracement and the channel’s upper line add to the resistances.Late-November top, channel’s lower line keep declines in check.Gold prices again step back from 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) while declining to $1,475.60 ahead of Friday’s European session. The yellow metal also follows a one-month-old rising channel formation. With this, the quote is likely to retest 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of November month drop, at $1,472.30 whereas late-November high around $1,466.60 and the channel’s support close to $1,456.30 could question sellers next. If prices keep trading southwards below $1,456, the previous month low near $1,445 will return to the chart. Meanwhile, a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,480.50 acts as intermediate halt during the Bullion’s rise from 200-bar SMA, at $1,477 now, to the channel’s resistance close to $1,485. Given the quote’s rally beyond $1,485, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,488.75 and November 06 high around $1,494 could become buyers’ favorite. Gold four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.64, representing marginal losses on the day, having faced rejection at the downward sloping 5-day moving average r

The Japanese Yen is flashing red despite the uptick in equity markets. USD/JPY's hourly chart shows a rising channel breakdown. The pair looks set to test the 50-day average support. USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.64, representing marginal losses on the day, having faced rejection at the downward sloping 5-day moving average resistance of 108.78. The anti-risk Yen is looking to gain ground despite the 0.10% gain in the S&P 500 index. The Asian stocks are also flashing red with Japan's Nikkei adding 0.17%, possibly in response to comments by President Trump that trade talks with China are moving right along.  USD/JPY's hourly chart shows the pair has established a lower high at 108.79, validating the rising channel breakdown seen in the overnight trade.  The hourly chart relative strength index is also hovering in bearish territory below 50. The pair looks set to test the 50-day MA support at 108.53.   Hourly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

WTI oil on Thursday witnessed two-way business and ended on a flat note, forming a Doji candle, despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Co

WTI is operating on slippery grounds, having formed a Doji on Thursday. OPEC and Russia have agreed to deepen production cuts. WTI oil on Thursday witnessed two-way business and ended on a flat note, forming a Doji candle, despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia agreeing to make further small cuts in oil production. The cartel and Russia decided to deepen the existing 1.2 million barrels per day cut in output by additional 500,000 barrels per day through the end of March 2020.  OPEC is likely to make an official announcement on Friday.  So far, the decision to deepen cuts has done little to boost prices, possibly because investors are worried producers may not abide by the agreement.       WTI crude is currently trading in the red at $58.27 per barrel, having hit a high of $59.10 in the overnight trade.  As noted earlier, WTI formed a Doji candle on Thursday. A Doji is usually considered a sign of indecision (bull-bear stalemate) in the market place. In this case, however, the candle has appeared following a notable rally from October lows near $51.00 and represents bullish exhaustion.  As a result, the black gold may feel the pull of gravity during the day ahead. While WTI is flashing marginal losses, Brent is trading at $63.14, representing a 0.24% drop on the day.   

USD/CHF extends the recent pullback while flashing 0.9870 as a quote during early Friday.

USD/CHF declines for the second consecutive day.50% Fibonacci retracement, October low could challenge sellers.An upside break of 0.9890 highlights 200-DMA, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.USD/CHF extends the recent pullback while flashing 0.9870 as a quote during early Friday. The pair recently pulled back from 100-Day Simple Moving Average (DMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of August-October rise. Prices are now likely declining towards 50% Fibonacci retracement and October low, near 0.9845 and 0.9835 respectively. In a case sellers refuse to respect 0.9835 rest-point, September bottom and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 0.9800 will return to the charts. Alternatively, pair’s sustained trading beyond 0.9890 resistance confluence can push bulls to confront 200-DMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 0.9940/45. While bearish conditions of 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicate the pair’s weakness, nearness to the key support limes the downside, which in turn portrays a sluggish move. However, sustained trading below key resistance makes the pair vulnerable. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Sideways  

New Zealand's economy is close to a turning point and the growth could pick up the pace next year, courtesy of the fiscal stimulus, the Reserve Bank o

New Zealand's economy is close to a turning point and the growth could pick up the pace next year, courtesy of the fiscal stimulus, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Deputy Governor Bascand said on Friday.  Finance Minister Grant Robertson has asked the Treasury to present projects for a government pipeline of short- and medium-term investments, with details due Dec. 11, according to Bloomberg.  So far, Bascand's comments have failed to move the needle on the NZD pairs. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6550, representing marginal gains on the day. Key quotes Strong commodity prices supporting recovery. Still downside risks but picture more balanced.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) extended one-year loans through its medium-term lending facility (MLF) on Friday while keeping the lending rate unch

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) extended one-year loans through its medium-term lending facility (MLF) on Friday while keeping the lending rate unchanged at 3.25%.  The lending rate on one-year MLF was reduced to 3.25% from 3.30% in early November. 
 

USD/CNH declines to 7.0420 amid initial Friday trading. The pair extends the previous two day’s downpour after China’s central bank avoids any MLF change.

USD/CNH stays under pressure as PBOC avoids MLF rate cut.Broad USD weakness contributes to the pair’s declines.Moves are choppy as markets turn nervous ahead of the US NFP.USD/CNH declines to 7.0420 amid initial Friday trading. The pair extends the previous two day’s downpour after China’s central bank avoids any rate change announcements despite pumping the huge amount into the markets. Media reports from China’s Securities Journal earlier suggested that the People’s Bank of China, (PBOC) will not announce any change to its Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate of 3.25%, which was later on confirmed. The central bank injected 300 billion Chinese Yuan (CNY) in a one-year operation. Earlier during the day, the PBOC set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0383 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0521. Market sentiment has been choppy off-late as traders await the key November month job details from the United States (US). With this, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw around 1.80% while stocks in Asia stay modestly bid amid rising calls of further monetary easing from global central banks and absence of trade negatives from either the US or China. The latest headlines from the US, rather a statement from Security Adviser Robert C. O’Brien, mention that both the parties are close to phase-one. Looking at the US data, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), expected 180K versus 128K, will gain major attention due to the upbeat forecast and the mixed signals from early indicators. Technical Analysis A month-old rising channel keeps limiting the pair’s moves between 7.0320 and 7.0990.  

GBP/INR is currently trading at 93.88, representing a 0.17% gain on the day. The pair had risen to 94.0616 on Wednesday - the highest level since Marc

GBP/INR is looking to re-test nine-month highs reached Thursday. The daily chart shows an impending bull cross of major averages. Rupee could be offered on stagflation fears. GBP/INR is currently trading at 93.88, representing a 0.17% gain on the day.  The pair had risen to 94.0616 on Wednesday - the highest level since March 4.  The Indian Rupee, however, recovered the lost ground after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.15%. The central bank was widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.  The surprise status quo decision likely put a bid under the INR. The GBP/INR pair surrendered gains and ended the day with marginal gains at 93.7140.  The pair, however, has picked up a bid in Asia, as noted earlier, and could challenge Wednesday's high as GBP/USD is gaining altitude on polls showing a comfortable lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead of next week's elections.  Further, the daily chart shows the 100-day average is on track to cross above the 200-day average in the next few days. The impending bull cross could invite chart driven buying.  Also, the upside in the Rupee looks limited, possibly on fears of stagflation in the Indian economy,  Technical levels Resistance: 94.0616, 95.0237 Support: 93.3146, 92.84   

AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0445 in a narrow range between 1.0433 and 1.0449. Profit-taking has ensued and enabled a correction to the upside in

AUD/NZD is correcting higher on profit-taking, moving up from 1.0433 lows in Asia.AUD has been key focus this week surrounded by a marathon of data.Trade talks between China and US confirmed to be on track by Beijing. AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0445 in a narrow range between 1.0433 and 1.0449. Profit-taking has ensued and enabled a correction to the upside in an otherwise steep and dominant bearish trend. The Aussie has been in focus this week with a marathon of data on both the domestic front as well as from China. The latest data came in Retail Sales which was another disappointment adding to the speculation that a cut will come early next year. We also had the Gross Domestic data for Q3 earlier in the week which again leaves the door open for action from the Reserve Bank of Australia next year.  "Inflation (now at 1.7%) is below the RBA target of 2-3% and unemployment (at 5.3%) is far from the 4.5% goal seen by the Bank as a support level for price growth," analysts at ING Bank explained who believe that the fall in AUD/NZD is not overdone and continue to see the balance of risk for the pair tilted to the downside.  Regardless of the direction of trade-related risk sentiment, the less and less dovish stance of the RBNZ keeps denting the AUD-NZD rate differential, and the commodity outlook appears more positive for New Zealand than Australia. When adding NZD extreme short positioning compared to AUD, we think AUD/NZD can break below the 1.04 level in the near future and soon approach the 1.0350 August lows. Trade talks on track Meanwhile, on the trade deal front, there has been good news of late and the confirmation from Beijing that indeed trade talks are on track helped risk apatite to improve into the end of this week.  Firstly, US President Donald Trump who said that the US is having meetings and discussions with China, describing the meetings as ‘going well’ and said that "something could happen regarding 15th Dec tariffs, but we are ‘not discussing that yet’. Late in the day, a Wall Street Journal article stated that while China and the US remain at odds over the value of farm goods Beijing will buy, an official statement from Beijing had confirmed that China’s trade negotiations with the US remain on track. China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday that the negotiating teams from both sides have maintained close communication, though it didn’t provide details on progress. The recent strain had spooked investors and stoked concerns over the global economic outlook. AUD/NZD levels Bulls can target an upside correction to the 21 4-hour MA ceiling which has acted as a firm resistance throughout the mid-Nov commencing downtrend. This level comes in at 1.0470/80 and guards a run back to a 23.6% retracement located in the 1.0520s – a prior support level at the end of November's business. 1.0380 comes in as the next downside target.     

AUD/USD takes the bids to 0.6835 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair recently bounced off 200-bar EMA but stays inside short-term symmetrical triangle.

AUD/USD holds on to recovery gains while following the immediate technical pattern.61.8% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels seem the key to watch during the triangle’s either side break.Steady RSI, sustained trading beyond 200-bar EMA keep buyers hopeful.AUD/USD takes the bids to 0.6835 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair recently bounced off 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and portrays a four-day-old symmetrical triangle. Given the pair’s latest U-turn and price-positive conditions of the 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI), the quote is rising towards the pattern’s resistance line, at 0.6850 now. However, pair’s further advances could be confined by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October-November downpour, near 0.6865. In a case where prices keep upside momentum intact beyond 0.6865, November 07 high around 0.6915 and October-end top surrounding 0.6925 will be in focus. On the downside, the triangle’s support around 0.6820 and 200-bar EMA level of 0.6815 can limit the pair’s immediate declines ahead of highlighting 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level close to 0.6795. While assuming pair’s further weakness below 0.6795, November month low of 0.6754 will be on the Bears’ radar. AUD/USD Technical Analysis Trend: Sideways  

NZD/USD risks ending the four-day winning streak, as technical charts are reporting buyer exhaustion. To start with, the relative strength index on th

NZD/USD's 4-hour chart is reporting a bearish divergence of RSI. The daily RSI is signaling overbought conditions for first since November 2018. NZD/USD risks ending the four-day winning streak, as technical charts are reporting buyer exhaustion. To start with, the relative strength index on the 4-hour chart has produced lower highs, contradicting the higher highs on NZD/USD. That bearish divergence is widely considered a warning of impending pullback. Further, the 14-day relative strength index is reporting overbought conditions with an above-50 print for the first time since November 2018.  The long upper shadow attached to Thursday's candle is also signaling bullish exhaustion. All in all, the stage looks set for a corrective pullback to 0.6520 (hourly chart support). The pair is currently trading in a sideways manner around 0.6545. The Kiwi rose 0.23% on Thursday, confirming the first four-day winning streak since September. 4-hour chartTrend: Pullback likely Technical levels  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate 7.0383 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0521.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate 7.0383 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0521.  

AUD/JPY takes a short leap to 74.35 amid initial trading session on Friday. The pair recently benefited from the downbeat fundamentals from Japan.

AUD/JPY stays mildly positive above 100-day EMA.Comments from the Japanese diplomat, downbeat data from Japan please buyers amid a bit nervous tone ahead of the key data.Phase-one updates are a few, Japan statistics can offer intermediate moves before the US jobs report that could direct market sentiment.AUD/JPY takes a short leap to 74.35 amid initial trading session on Friday. The pair recently benefited from the downbeat fundamentals from Japan. Though, the market’s nervous system restricts the pair’s moves. Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso recently accepted the fact that negative interest rates negatively affecting banks' profits, in turn hurting individuals. On the economic front, Japan’s October month Overall Household Spending dropped more than -3% forecast to -5.1%. Also providing a mild push could be the comments from the United States (US) National Security Adviser Robert C.  O’Brien who said that the US and China are close on the phase-one deal. On the contrary, markets are on the wait and watch mode ahead of the key November month employment data from the US. The event gets more importance this time as forecasts suggest a strong reading of 180K while early indicators of the data have been quite disappointing. Further, the absence of major data from Australia also contributes to the pairs’ lack of momentum. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields take rounds to 1.80% while S&P 500 Futures seesaw around 3,120 with small gains. Ahead of the US data, Japan’s Preliminary reading of October month Leading Economic Index, expected 101.5 versus 101.10 prior, coupled with trade/political headlines could entertain traders. Technical Analysis A daily close below 100-day EMA level near 74.15 can drag prices to a three-week-old rising trend line near 73.95. On the upside, monthly top of 74.85 holds the key to pair’s rise towards 200-day EMA level of 75.30.  

The eurozone economy has avoided a recession, according to a Reuters poll of economists who were reasonably confident of that outcome, but their growt

Reuters poll of economists expect eurozone economy has avoided a recession.No changes to policy any changes at Christine Lagarde's first ECB meeting.The eurozone economy has avoided a recession, according to a Reuters poll of economists who were reasonably confident of that outcome, but their growth and inflation outlook remains very modest for the coming years. Lead paragraphs While the probability of a recession in the currency bloc over the coming two years held steady at 30% from last month, the various risks which have held back economic growth and inflation have not yet dissipated. Still, the European Central Bank will in all likelihood do nothing when it meets to set policy on Dec. 12 and also stay on the sidelines for the next two years, the poll showed. Sentiment around the euro zone economy has brightened somewhat over the past month. But stop-start headlines on the U.S.-China trade war and lingering uncertainty around Britain's exit from the European Union remains a threat to business activity. Key notes With recent eurozone economic data beating low expectations, over 80% of economists polled by Reuters in the last week - 38 of 45 - said they were "reasonably confident" the eurozone economy had avoided recession. And while a majority of those 38 respondents said "some" of that confidence was due to the European Central Bank's recent policy easing, only two said "a lot" and the remaining nearly 30% said "none". FX implications:  Next week marks the first ECB monetary policy meeting with Christine Lagarde at the helm. However, no changes to policy any changes at this juncture although a bleak outlook for 2020 could be a weight on the euro going forward as markets begin to factor in eventually action from the ECB’.  

GBP/USD is better bid at press time and is 30 pips short of 1.3190 – the resistance of the trendline connecting July 2014 high and April 2018 low. A w

GBP/USD has neared resistance of trendline sloping southwards from July 2014 high. A break higher would bolster the bullish setup and yield a rally to 1.3381.GBP/USD is better bid at press time and is 30 pips short of 1.3190 – the resistance of the trendline connecting July 2014 high and April 2018 low. A weekly close higher would bolster the already bullish technical setup, as represented by the bull flag breakout on the weekly chart and an above-50 reading on the 14-week relative strength index. The flag breakout has created room for a rally to levels above 1.37 (target as per the measured move method). On the way higher, the pair may encounter resistance of the lower high at 1.3381 (created in March 2019). The bullish case would be invalidated if the pair reverses lower from the trendline resistance and finds acceptance below 1.30. Weekly chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Japan Finance Minister, Aso is crossing the wires. Key comments Aware that negative interest rates negatively affecting banks' profits, in turn hurtin

Japan Finance Minister, Taro Aso, is crossing the wires. Key comments Aware that negative interest rates negatively affecting banks' profits, in turn hurting individuals. Japan's host nation support for US forces being appropriately shared based on Japan-US agreement. Don't think Mitsubishi UFJ bank's move to charge customers with savings account was caused by low-interest rates.  

EUR/USD trades with modest gains to 1.1100 during early Friday in Asia. In doing so, the pair remains beyond 100-day EMA for the first time in a month.

EUR/USD traders above 100-day EMA for the first time since early-November.Buyers look for entry beyond a medium-term long falling resistance line.38.2% Fibonacci adds to the immediate support that holds the gate for fresh declines.EUR/USD trades with modest gains to 1.1100 during early Friday in Asia. In doing so, the pair remains beyond 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time in a month amid a bullish signal from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD). Even so, a downward sloping trend line since June 25, near 1.1120, limits the pair’s immediate upside. Should buyers manage to cross 1.1120, 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-October fall around 1.1150 and a 200-day EMA level of 1.1175 will be their favorites. Meanwhile, sellers will look for entry below 1.1085/80 support confluence, including 100-day EMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, to target 1.1030/25 multiple support zone. If prices keep trading southwards after 1.1025, the previous month low near 1.0980 holds the key to September bottom around 1.0925. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion continues. The total assets have risen by another $13 billion to $4.066 billion - the highest level since De

Federal Reserve's (Fed) assets have increased sharply in the last three months. Markets believe the Fed is doing round four of the QE program. The Fed did three rounds of QE between 2009 and 2015.Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion continues. The total assets have risen by another $13 billion to $4.066 billion - the highest level since Dec. 26, 2018, according to data source fred.stlouis.org. The balance sheet size has increased by more than $290 billion in the last three months. The Fed has bought treasuries since mid-September to calm money markets. President Powell has often reiterated that the ongoing bond purchase program is not quantitative easing (QE). Markets, however, believe the central bank is in effect implementing round four of the QE program. That is evident from the recent rally in the S&P 500. The index has not seen a 1 percent daily drop since Oct. 8 and is currently reporting quarter-to-date gains of 4.3%.

USD/CAD declines to 1.3175 amid Friday’s Asian session. The pair dropped to the lowest since November 19 on the previous day.

USD/CAD stays close to 13-day low amid recent optimism surrounding Canada.Upbeat Oil prices, welcome economics at Canada and BOC’s positive tone jostled with the USD’s broad weakness.Monthly employment data from the US and Canada will be in the spotlight while trade/political headlines could offer intermediate moves.USD/CAD declines to 1.3175 amid Friday’s Asian session. The pair dropped to the lowest since November 19 on the previous day as prices of oil, Canada’s biggest export, rose further and also because the Canadian economics came out strong. Be it Bank of Canada’s (BOC) optimism surrounding the economic resilience or lesser than expected trade deficit and activity numbers from Canada, Canadian fundamentals are quite strong off-late. Also increasing the fundamental strength is oil’s rally on the back of expectations of further supply cut and depleting inventories. Further, Reuters’ news that Canadian Prime Minister (PM) Justin Trudeau is nearing a fiscal plan including tax cuts, investments in housing & infrastructure added strength to loonie bears. On the other hand, the United States (US) is witnessing a period of pessimism where traders give less care to the key diplomats’ comments to show US-China trade progress amid contrasting media reports. The US economics are also downbeat even if the latest lot, including Factory Orders, managed to stay positive. The recent headline from FBN quotes the US National Security Adviser Robert C.  O’Brien while he said that the US and China are close to the phase-one deal. However, no market reaction to the same could be witnessed. Investors are all gearing up for the key November month employment data from the US and Canada. While the headline US Nonfarm Payrolls, expected 180K versus 128K, will be in the spotlight, Canada’s Net Change in Employment, likely +10K against -1.8K prior, could also gain market attention. Also, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members will meet during the second day of the scheduled two-day gatherings in Vienna to discuss their recently announced production cut of 500K. If the decision is passed and agreed with Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, that could help the oil prices rise further. Technical Analysis While 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3230 limits the pair’s upside, September month low surrounding 1.3130 restrict its short-term declines.  

Steady below the 200-day moving average, USD/JPY fell from 108.97 to 108.66 overnight as positive trade deal headlines flowed through the news wires a

USD/JPY elevated on positive trade tones and clarification from Beijing that trade talks are on track. USD/JPY will now depend on the outcome of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Steady below the 200-day moving average, USD/JPY fell from 108.97 to 108.66 overnight as positive trade deal headlines flowed through the news wires and helped US stocks eke out further gains. Risk appetite was solid into the close on Wall Street overnight while trade talks dominated the market's theme. Investors had been taking on a series of positive news over this week from the US side, although, without confirmation from Beijing, markets were apprehensive to rely on such optimism. Trade-deal news supports a risk-on tone However, a Wall Street Journal article stated that while China and the US remain at odds over the value of farm goods Beijing will buy, an official statement from Beijing had confirmed that China’s trade negotiations with the US remain on track. China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday that the negotiating teams from both sides have maintained close communication, though it didn’t provide details on progress. The recent strain had spooked investors and stoked concerns over the global economic outlook, the article leads.  Prior to the news, there had been additional upbeat tones from Washington US President Donald Trump who said that the US is having meetings and discussions with China, describing the meetings as ‘going well’ and said that "something could happen regarding 15th Dec tariffs, but we are ‘not discussing that yet’.Consequently, the S&P index rose 4.94 points or 0.16% at 3117.69, the NASDAQ index rose 4.031 points or 0.05% at 8570.70 and the Dow industrial average rose 29.36 points or 0.11% at 27679.14, below the 27745.2 and up from a low of 27562.80. As for US yields, the 2-year treasury yields rose slightly from 1.56% to 1.60%, 10-year yields rose from 1.76 to 1.82%. "Markets are pricing a near-zero chance of easing at the Fed’s 11 Dec meeting but a terminal rate of 1.25% (vs Fed’s mid-rate at 1.63% currently)," analysts at Westpac explained. Meanwhile, looking ahead, the key event will come from the US session in the form of Nonfarm Payrolls. The event is always a climax to the first week of each month, however, today's will garner particular focus considering the latest manufacturing disappointments. "Nov Nonfarm Payrolls are expected rise 185k and see the unemployment rate hold at 3.6%. Average hourly earnings are anticipated to hold at 3.0%year, still down from the 3.2%year pace seen in August," analysts at Westpac explained.  USD/JPY levels Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, the chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the, "USD/JPY pair has retreated from a congestion of moving averages, which favor a downward extension, as the 20 SMA is crossing below directionless larger ones. Technical indicators have spent the day seesawing in negative territory, the Momentum now marginally higher, although the RSI flat at around 41. The pair has an immediate resistance at 109.00, but it would need to rally beyond 109.30 to recover a bullish stance."

Japan JP Foreign Reserves down to $1317.3B in November from previous $1324.5B

GBP/JPY seesaws around 143.00 during the Asian session on Friday. In doing so, the pair steps back from resistance line of a short-term ascending trend channel.

GBP/JPY fails to defy the two-week-old rising channel.Overbought RSI conditions can trigger pullback to late-November high.Lows marked in March and April months could lure buyers during further upside.GBP/JPY seesaws around 143.00 during the Asian session on Friday. In doing so, the pair steps back from resistance line of a short-term ascending trend-channel. In addition to its pullback from the channel’s resistance line, overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) also push sellers to look for entry while targeting November 27 top close to 141.85. During the pair’s additional declines below 141.85, November 18 high near 141.55 and channel support near 141.20 becomes the key to watch. On the contrary, pair’s run-up beyond the latest high around 143.25 could escalate the north-run to March/April lows near 143.72/80. GBP/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below forecasts (1.1%) in October: Actual (0.5%)

Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at -5.1%, below expectations (-3%) in October

Gold fails to extend the previous day’s recovery while trading near $1475/76 amid Friday’s Asian session.

Gold prices offer few moves despite staying below 50-day EMA.Trade bleak, political pessimism and weak USD favor the buyer.Nervous sentiment ahead of the key US data keeps the market player on the wait-and-watch mode.Gold fails to extend the previous day’s recovery while trading near $1475/76 amid Friday’s Asian session. That said, the yellow metal registers failures to close beyond 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the third consecutive day. However, traders turn cautious ahead of the key catalysts and prefer waiting over taking trades off-late. Despite the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s repeated attempts to appease market players about the phase-one details, investors seem to lose interest in the headlines from the Trump administration. The reason could be found in recently contrasting statements, reducing odds of any deal and showing hardships in negotiations, from global media and China. While trade pessimism could be considered helping the bullion’s latest pullback, the US dollar (USD) weakness is another reason that gets included in the list. The greenback keeps it on the back foot amid disappointing data indicating no major improvement in the world’s biggest economy. This also increases the fear of the headline jobs report to push the policymakers towards conveying the economic pessimism even if market forecasts are quite upbeat. Furthermore, calls of the US President Trump’s impeachment, coupled with the geopolitical tension surrounding Iran and North Korea, should keep the safe-haven stronger. Even so, the US 10-year treasury yields recovery latest losses by two basis points (bps) to 1.80% while S&P 500 Futures registers no change by the press time. Looking forward, trade/political headlines could offer intermediate moves to the precious metal while major attention will be on the November month US employment data including the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings. Among them, the NFP is expected to rise to 180K from 128K prior while Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings could stay unchanged at 3.6% and 3.0% respectively. Technical Analysis In addition to a successful trade beyond 50-day EMA level of $1,477, buyers will look for entry beyond the monthly top close to $1,485 while aiming $1,500 mark. Alternatively, $1,463 and short-term rising support line around $1,455 can entertain sellers.  

The OPEC ministers agreed on the 500k cut proposal. Iran Oil Minister: There is an OPEC agreement. More to come...

The OPEC ministers agreed on the 500k cut proposal. Iran Oil Minister: There is an OPEC agreement. More to come...

GBP/USD traders modestly changed around 1.3160 by the press time of early Asian session on Friday.

GBP/USD nears the May month top while showing a little momentum off-late.Bullish MACD, sustained trading beyond October top support further upside.Overbought RSI, May month high keep sellers hopeful.GBP/USD traders modestly changed around 1.3160 by the press time of early Asian session on Friday. That said, overbought conditions of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the recent stop in north-run make buyers doubtful. As a result, sellers can look for entry below Wednesday’s high surrounding 1.3120 to revisit the 1.3015/10 region comprising October month high. However, pair’s further declines can well divert the Bears to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-September fall, at 1.2840. Meanwhile, buyers are waiting for a sustained break of May month high of 1.3178, coupled with validation of further upside by pair’s rise past-1.3180, to target 1.3200 and 1.3270 numbers to the north. Increasing the odds of pair’s run-up are bullish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD). It should also be mentioned that Bull’s dominance beyond 1.3270 enables them to challenge the yearly top, marked in March, surrounding 1.3385. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

With the first day of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting coming to an end, global oil producers cross wires.

With the first day of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting coming to an end, global oil producers cross wires. Reuters came out with the story quoting the Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman who said to confirm the decision with non-OPEC members before making it live. Key quotes Cannot say we have agreement until we meet non-OPEC member. Everything will become clear tomorrow. Says OPEC is in agreement (but no comment on what was agreed). You will hear beautiful news tomorrow. Market implications Given the markets being mostly dead around this time, early morning in Asia, oil prices show less response to the news. However, the energy benchmark extends its pullback from the highest since late-September while trading near $58.40. Traders will wait for additional details as the second day, the final one, of the meeting is still left for action.

The Telegraph recently provided an additional reason to cheer to the United Kingdom’s (UK) ruling Conservative Party.

The Telegraph recently provided an additional reason to cheer to the United Kingdom’s (UK) ruling Conservative Party as it released the news stating four more Brexit Party Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) dramatically quit the party on Thursday. Although Brexit Party has no major rivalry to the ruling Tories, favoring the sentiment is the statement that leaving MEPs urged people to vote for Tories while warning that Nigel Farage's party was splitting the Leave vote. Key quotes Four Brexit Party MEPs, including Jacob Rees-Mogg's sister, dramatically quit the party on Thursday and urged people to vote Tory, warning that Nigel Farage's party was splitting the Leave vote. Ms. Rees-Mogg, entrepreneur Lance Forman and campaigner Lucy Harris, all resigned the whip to back Prime Minister Boris Johnson's push to ‘get Brexit done’. They were joined at a press conference in Westminster by Brexit MEP John Longworth, who was sacked by the party on Wednesday. FX implications Despite showing a little reaction to the news, developments like this could support GBP/USD strength. That said, the cable is already ranging to multi-month tops while trading near 1.3160 during early Friday morning in Asia.

AUD/USD declines to 0.6830 during the initial Friday morning in Asia. The quote stretches losses made on Thursday as the second-tier Aussie data came in down.

AUD/USD extends the previous day’s weakness amid rising calls of RBA’s excessive rate cuts.Recently published Aussie AiG Performance of Construction Index joined the broad gamut of disappointing Australian data.A lack of major data/event, no surprises from trade headlines keep traders cautious ahead of the US NFP.AUD/USD declines to 0.6830 during the initial Friday morning in Asia. The quote stretches losses made on Thursday as the second-tier Aussie data becomes the latest disappointment. Be it the third quarter (Q3) growth figures or retail sales and trade balance, not to forget the latest AiG Performance of Construction Index that dropped to 40 from 43.9, majority fundamentals concerning the Australian economy have been downbeat off-late. This has led to major banks including Westpac, Commonwealth Bank, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and National Australia Bank (NAB) to step up their forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate cuts. Also exerting the downside pressure on the pair is market’s lack of belief in the upbeat trade statements from the United States (US) as media reports like the latest one from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Chinese authorities pour cold water on the trade optimism. Even so, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw around 1.80%, after a gain of two basis points (bps), while S&P 500 Futures stay positive 0.20% near 3,117. Limiting the pair’s downside was the US dollar (USD) weakness on the back of downbeat data, the market’s pessimism surrounding the US-China phase-one trade deal. Looking forward, markets are less likely to have any major moves as a lack of any data/event at home joins the cautious sentiment ahead of the key US employment data. Upbeat forecasts of the headline Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), like 180K, is likely to be watered down if we closely observe the early indicators like ADP employment change. Other than that, no change is expected in Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate figures while the monthly print of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index could soften to 96.5 from 96.8 earlier. Technical Analysis 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.6810 acts as immediate support, a break of which could drag prices to November month low near 0.6755. On the upside, 0.6900 holds the key to pair’s run-up towards 200-day SMA level of 0.6915 and the previous month top close to 0.6930.  
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