خطرات سے خبردار CFDs پیچیدہ ٹولز ہیں اور لیوریج کی وجہ سے تیزی سے پیسہ کھو دینے کے اعلٰی خطرہ کے حامل ہوتے ہیں۔ اس فراہم کنندہ کے ساتھ CFDs ٹریڈنگ کرتے وقت 70% ریٹیل سرمایہ کار اکاؤنٹس پیسہ کھو دیتے ہیں۔ آپ کو اس پر غور کرنا چاہئے کہ آیا آپ سمجھتے ہیں کہ CFDs کس طرح کام کرتے ہیں اور کیا آپ اپنا پیسہ کھونے کا خطرہ مول لینے کے متحمل ہو سکتے ہیں۔

Forex نیوز ٹائم لائن

منگل، 22 اكتوبر، 2019

The Greenback is up marginally this Tuesday, helping EUR/USD to trade near two-day lows. Brexit uncertainties are weighing on both the market sentiment and EUR

The Greenback is up marginally this Tuesday, helping EUR/USD to trade near two-day lows.Brexit uncertainties are weighing on both the market sentiment and EUR. Moves could be limited ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday.  EUR/USD daily chart     On the daily chart, the common currency is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving averages (DSMA). However, the Brexit deal optimism and the better market sentiment boosted the Euro in October. Market moves could be limited ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   EUR/USD, on the four-hour chart, is starting to pull back down from the October highs, trading now near the 1.1140 level. However, the spot is still trading above its main SMAs, suggesting a bullish bias in the medium term. A breakout above the 1.1160 resistance can lead to a move to the 1.1191 resistance, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   EUR/USD 30-minute chart     The Fiber is trading below the 50 and 100 SMAs but above the 200 SMA, suggesting a consolidation in the near term. Sellers need a break below the 1.1110 to reach the 1.1065 price level on the way down.   Additional key levels  

Gold failed to hold to gains and pulled back, approaching again the $1480 area. Earlier today the ounce rose to $1488 and as of writing trades at $148

XAU/USD unable to rise above $1490 turns to the downside. Bearish bias supported by higher US yields and a recovery of the Greenback. Gold failed to hold to gains and pulled back, approaching again the $1480 area. Earlier today the ounce rose to $1488 and as of writing trades at $1483, flat for the day but now with a bearish intraday bias.  The recovery from $1480 was capped below $1490. XAU/USD so far holds above the key short-term support seen at $1480.  A consolidation below would point to further losses. The chart still favors the downside. A clear recovery above $1500 could remove the bearish bias, targeting levels near $1520 (intermediate resistance at $1510).  The negative bias remains supported today by a correction of the US Dollar across the board and also on the back of higher US yields. The 10-year is again moving to the 1.80% level.  “Gold, silver and platinum had a relatively poor week, with the complex dropping on average, as the market mused about the possibility that additional Fed rate cuts may not be coming anytime soon, after the October reduction. Improving equity valuations and decent US data also played a role in depressing precious metals, with technicals pointing to downside in the near term”, explained analysts at TD Securities.  Levels to watch   

The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at two-day highs still below $55.00 a barrel.  The level to beat for buyers is the 55.00 resistance.

The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at two-day highs still below $55.00 a barrel. The level to beat for buyers is the 55.00 resistance.   Crude oil daily chart     The Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI), on the daily chart, is trading sideways below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs).  Crude oil four-hour chart     WTI broke above 54.00 as the market is en route towards 55.00 resistance. A break above this level can open the doors to further gains towards the 56.00 level above the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart.  Crude oil 30-minute chart     WTI is trading above its main SMA, suggesting bullish momentum in the near term. Support can be seen at the 54.00 level and 53.00 price levels.  Additional key levels  

According to George Parker, political editor for The Financial Times, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ready to accept a ten-day Brexit delay b

According to George Parker, political editor for The Financial Times, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is ready to accept a ten-day Brexit delay beyond the October 31st deadline if he loses the programme motion tonight.  "But only if EU says it’s the final, final extension. “They won’t do that - so in practice we’ll pull the bill,” says No 10 source," Parker added, via Twitter. The British Pound reacted positively to these comments and the GBP/USD pair pulled away from daily lows, which was last seen trading at 1.2950, down 0.06% on the day.

The USD/CAD pair advanced to a fresh daily high of 1.3123 in the early trading hours of the American session after the disappointing retail sales data

Crude oil prices rose sharply on reports of OPEC considering deeper output cuts.Bank of Canada said business sentiment improved slightly in the third quarter.US Dollar Index clings to modest daily gains around mid-97s.The USD/CAD pair advanced to a fresh daily high of 1.3123 in the early trading hours of the American session after the disappointing retail sales data from Canada weighed on the Loonie. However, with the upbeat tone in the Bank of Canada's (BoC) Business Outlook Survey and rising crude oil prices providing a boost to the CAD, the pair reversed its course and erased its daily gains. As of writing, the pair was flat on the day at 1.3086. The data published by Statistics Canada on Tuesday revealed that retail sales in August contracted by 0.1% to miss the market expectation for an increase of 0.4%. However, in its Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter, the BoC said business sentiment improved slightly. Moreover, "Inflation expectations are unchanged; the majority of firms still anticipate inflation will be in the lower half of bank's target range," the BoC added to help the CAD start recovering its losses.  Crude oil prices jump on OPEC headlines Additionally, citing OPEC sources familiar with talks, Reuters reported that OPEC and its allies were considering the possibility of deeper oil cuts in December meeting and caused crude oil prices to rise sharply, which allowed the commodity-related Loonie to gather further strength. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up 2.25% on the day at $54.65. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index is posting modest recovery gains around mid-97s on Tuesday, keeping the pair's losses limited for the time being. Technical levels to watch for  

Data released today showed retail sales in Canada came in below expectations in August with unexpected negative numbers. According to Jocelyn Paquet,

Data released today showed retail sales in Canada came in below expectations in August with unexpected negative numbers. According to Jocelyn Paquet, analyst at National Bank of Canada explains that consumption spending should contribute to growth during the third quarter.  Key Quotes: “The Canadian retail data came in weaker than expected in August, with a 0.3% drop in prices contributing in sapping the headline result. The pullback in prices was especially acute in the gasoline stations segment (-3.1%) where nominal outlays fell despite a sizeable increase in sales volumes. Lower pump prices generally allow consumers to spend their money on things other than fuel but that doesn’t seem to have been the case this time with discretionary sales mustering only a 0.1% gain in the month.” “The 0.2% increase in total sales volumes could hardly be described as a catastrophe and should translate into a positive contribution to GDP growth in August (due to come out on October 31st). With one month of data still to come, real consumption on goods also looks poised to add to quarterly growth, albeit modestly.” “An upward revision to the prior month’s data from +0.4% to +0.6% provided some consolation.” “With the price effect removed, retails sales progressed 0.2% countrywide.”
 
EUR/GBP remains under bearish pressure hovering near levels not seen since May 2019. The level to beat for sellers is the 0.8575 support.   EUR/GBP daily chart     EUR/GBP, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). In the last weeks of trading, the optimism of a Brexit deal drove the market below the 0.8600 handle.  EUR/GBP four-hour chart     EUR/GBP is trading below the main SMAs, suggesting bearish momentum in the medium term. A daily close below the 0.8575 support can potentially lead to the 0.8500 handle on the way down, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    EUR/GBP 30-minute chart     EUR/GBP is challenging the 200 SMA, suggesting a consolidation in the near term. Resistances can be seen at the 0.8625 and 0.8650 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  

Citing Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sources familiar with discussions, Reuters on Tuesday reported that OPEC and its allie

Citing Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sources familiar with discussions, Reuters on Tuesday reported that OPEC and its allies were considering whether to deepen crude oil production cuts at their next meeting in December due to worries about the dismal energy demand outlook in 2020. "The Saudis want to prevent oil prices from falling. But now they want to make sure that countries like Nigeria and Iraq reach 100% compliance first as they have promised," one OPEC source told Reuters. "In December we will consider whether we need more cuts for next year. But it is early now, things will be clearer in November." With the initial market reaction, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate spiked to a daily high of $54.80 and was last seen trading at $54.65, adding 2.3% on a daily basis.

The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the overnight attempted recovery move and met with some fresh supply on Tuesday – marking its fourth day of a

The pair continued with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction on Tuesday.Set-up support prospects for some dip-buying interest, though warrants caution.The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the overnight attempted recovery move and met with some fresh supply on Tuesday – marking its fourth day of a negative move in the previous five.
 
Despite the downtick, the pair has still managed to hold its neck above the 50% Fibonacci level of the 112.40-104.45 downfall and a five-month-old descending trend-line resistance breakpoint.
 
Below the mentioned resistance-turned-support, near the 108.00 handle, the pair might turn vulnerable to accelerate the pullback further towards the 107.55 confluence region.
 
The latter comprises of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo. level, which if broken decisively might negate any near-term bullish bias and set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have been drifting lower, though are yet to gain any significant negative momentum and warrant some caution before placing any aggressive bets.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained breakthrough the said confluence support before traders again start positioning for the resumption of the pair's prior well-established bearish trend.
 
On the flip side, any attempted positive move might continue to confront some fresh supply near the 109.00 handle (200-DMA), which if cleared now seems to pave the way for additional near-term gains. USD/JPY daily chart  

The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter highlighted that there was a slight improvement in the business sentiment but noted

The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter highlighted that there was a slight improvement in the business sentiment but noted regional differences were more pronounced. The USD/CAD retreated slightly from its session highs with the initial reaction to the publication and was last seen trading near 1.3100, adding 0.15% on a daily basis. Below are some additional key takeaways, as reported by Reuters. "Indicators of future sales are positive in most regions, especially Quebec, but soft in the prairies; foreign demand slightly positive but weighed down by trade tensions." "Firms' expectations of US economic growth have weakened, some expect a small US recession over the next 12 months and anticipate sales to be directly or indirectly negatively affected." "Plans to invest and hire more in next 12 months are healthy outside of energy-producing regions; firms in central Canada and British Columbia intend to expand workforces." "Capacity pressures somewhat elevated in firms concentrated in central Canada and British Columbia due to tightening labor constraints; firms anticipate capacity pressures will increase over the next 12 months." "Input price growth expected to soften modestly due to less pressure from commodity-related inputs." "Output prices expected to grow at a slightly greater rate than over past 12 months to pass along higher labor and non-commodity input costs." "Firms reporting marginal easing in credit conditions over past three months." "Regional sentiment suggests widespread confidence in quebec and ontario, modest levels in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, and negative sentiment in the prairies due to ongoing challenges in the energy sector." "Inflation expectations are unchanged; majority of firms still anticipate inflation will be in lower half of bank's target range." "Mortgage lending conditions eased in Q3 while non-mortgage lending conditions tightened; concerns about economic outlook and energy sector in prairies resulted in tightened price and non-price lending conditions."

According to the latest Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, economic activity in the ma

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index beat the market expectation by a wide margin.US Dollar Index stays in the positive territory on the daily chart.According to the latest Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, economic activity in the manufacturing sector of the Fifth District expanded at a strong pace in October with the headline Composite Index rebounding to 8 from -9 in September and beating the market expectation of -14. "Many survey respondents saw growth in employment and wages in October and expected continued growth in the near term," the publication read. "However, manufacturers still struggled to find workers with the necessary skills in October and expected this difficulty to persist in the coming months." Supported by this upbeat data, the US Dollar Index is clinging to its daily gains near 97.50.

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 8, above forecasts (-14) in October

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) came in at 5.38M below forecasts (5.45M) in September

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) came in at -2.2% below forecasts (-0.7%) in September

Wall Street's main indexes started the second day of the week on a mixed note as investors continue to assess the third-quarter earnings figures. As o

Healthcare shares lead the gains in early trade on Tuesday.Financials underperform pressured by falling Treasury bond yields.Wall Street's main indexes started the second day of the week on a mixed note as investors continue to assess the third-quarter earnings figures. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.05% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were up 0.2% and 0.35%, respectively,  on a daily basis. Among the 11-major S&P 500 sectors, boosted by better-than-expected earnings figures from drugmaker Novartis, the Healthcare Index was adding 1.15% on the day to lead the winners ahead of the Consumer Staple Index, which was up 0.65% at the time of press. On the other hand, pressures by a 2% drop in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, the rate-sensitive Financials Index is erasing 0.4% in the early trade. 

Casper Burgering, senior commodity economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the demand for metals is weak due to declining global economic activity with m

Casper Burgering, senior commodity economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the demand for metals is weak due to declining global economic activity with macroeconomics also heavily influencing price trends and determining sentiment in many markets. Key Quotes “A combination of cyclical factors will continue to drive the price for industrial metal markets in the coming months. Key drivers are the trade wars, global economic activity and the monetary policy of central banks.” “Developments in trade conflicts between the US with China and the EU are crucial for investor sentiment. In the event of an escalation, uncertainty increases and investors are not eager to invest in cyclical metals.” “The trade conflicts cause a stronger cooling of the Chinese economy and puts pressure on the economies of both the US and the EU. This has an adverse effect on the demand for industrial metals. To mitigate the economic downturn, central banks such as the Fed (US), the ECB (EU) and the PBoC (China) are pursuing stimulating economic policies. This global monetary easing cycle contributes to a stabilisation of economies. However, the downside risks remain high. They include a further escalation of trade conflicts and geopolitical challenges (Iran, Hong Kong, North Korea, South China Sea, Syria). A recession is still a very real possibility.”

The GBP/USD pair momentarily slipped below the 1.2900 handle during the early North-American session, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. Th

The incoming Brexit-related headlines continue to influence the price action.Johnson confirms to push for election if MPs reject his fast-tracked timetable.The GBP/USD pair momentarily slipped below the 1.2900 handle during the early North-American session, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter.
 
The pair witnessed a modest pullback on Tuesday as investors seemed inclined to lighten their bullish bets ahead of the key Brexit deal votes. The first vote on the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal is scheduled at 18:00 GMT and if passed, will be followed by a discussion on the timetable for the Withdrawal Agreement bill. Brexit headlines remain an exclusive driver The sentiment deteriorated further after Johnson's spokesman said that there’s no guarantee of the European Union (EU) granting an extension. This now makes it even more important for the UK government to win Tuesday's vote in order to proceed to the next stage of legislation and get the Brexit done by October 31.
 
Meanwhile, the latest leg of a slide over the past hour or so could further be attributed to reports, indicating that if the UK lawmakers vote down the legislative timetable then the government will push for an election before Christmas. The news, confirmed by Boris Johnson, added a bit of uncertainty and exerted some additional downward pressure on the British Pound.
 
However, the fact that chances for the approval of the Withdrawal Act Bill (WAB) have been improving, the downtick lacked any strong follow-through selling and remained limited, rather attracted some dip-buying interest and helped the pair to quickly rebound around 30-35 pips from session lows. Technical levels to watch  

The Greenback is picking up some steam this Tuesday, sending EUR/USD to two-day lows. Brexit uncertainties are weighing on both the market mood and the Euro.

The Greenback is picking up some steam this Tuesday, sending EUR/USD to two-day lows.Brexit uncertainties are weighing on both the market mood and the Euro.   EUR/USD daily chart     On the daily chart, the shared currency is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving averages (DSMAs). However, the Brexit deal euphoria and the better market mood benefitted the Euro in October.  EUR/USD four-hour chart   On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD is starting to ease from the October highs, trading now below the 1.1140 resistance. However, the market is still above its main SMAs, suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. A break of the 1.1160 resistance can lead to a move up to the 1.1191 resistance, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   EUR/USD 30-minute chart     EUR/USD is trading below the 50 and 100 SMAs but above the 200 SMA, suggesting a consolidation in the near term. Bears would need to break 1.1110 to reach 1.1065 price level on the way down.   Additional key levels  

Analysts at TD Securities are penciling in a NZD1.6b deficit for the Sep trade balance with exports at NZ$4.2b and imports at NZ$5.8b. Key Quotes “Whi

Analysts at TD Securities are penciling in a NZD1.6b deficit for the Sep trade balance with exports at NZ$4.2b and imports at NZ$5.8b. Key Quotes “While exports are likely to rise steadily into year-end, they are unlikely to keep pace with the firmer import trend. The NZD decline doesn't help either.”

The AUD/USD pair posted its highest daily close in a month at 0.6870 on Monday but struggled to continue to push higher. As of writing, the pair, whic

US Dollar Index climbs to 98.50 area on Tuesday.Renewed trade optimism helps AUD stay resilient against its rivals.Chinese official says they are hopeful an agreement with the US will be reached.The AUD/USD pair posted its highest daily close in a month at 0.6870 on Monday but struggled to continue to push higher. As of writing, the pair, which tested the 0.6850 handle in the last hour, was trading at 0.6860, down 0.08% on a daily basis. The Greenback spent the second half of the previous week under strong selling pressure and the US Dollar Index (DXY) slumped to its lowest level since early August at 97.14. In the absence of significant macroeconomic data releases on Tuesday, the USD staged a technical rebound and the DXY was up 0.15% on the day near 98.50. Trade headlines support the Aussie Despite the USD recovery, hopes of the United States and China coming to terms on trade before causing the conflict to escalate any further helps trade-sensitive antipodeans stay resilient against their rivals. Earlier in the day, China’s Vice Foreign Minister  Le Yucheng said that they had achieved progress in the latest trade talks with the US and noted that they were hopeful an agreement could be reached. “As long as we respect each other, there are no problems that cannot be resolved by China and the US,” the official added. There won't be any macroeconomic data releases from Australia on Wednesday and Reserve Bank of Australia's Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will be delivering a speech. Technical levels to watch for  

According to analysts at ING, the quality issues issue with the Swedish labour market data suggests that the Riksbank is unlikely to meaningfully chan

According to analysts at ING, the quality issues issue with the Swedish labour market data suggests that the Riksbank is unlikely to meaningfully change its cautiously-hawkish bias this week. Key Quotes “Policymakers are still likely to pencil in a rate hike over the next six months, albeit the timing will likely be pushed back from the turn of the year and further into 1Q/2Q20.” “This suggests there's limited downside to SEK, particularly when the global environment shows some tentative signs of improvement (the decreasing probability of a 'no deal' Brexit and the falling odds of an imminent escalation in the US-China trade war).” “EUR/SEK currently exerts the highest correlation with GBP within the European G10 FX space, which in turn means it can benefit from the pound's rally.” “With EUR/SEK showing some modest signs of over-valuation on a short-term basis, the krona downside from the upcoming Riksbank meeting is fairly limited. If anything, risks are skewed to some modest appreciation should the Riksbank stick to its hawkish forward guidance – albeit investors are unlikely to fully buy-in to the rate hike signals.” “However, beyond the potential support for SEK this week, we continue to reiterate our bearish view on the currency and look for EUR/SEK to reach 11.00. Global economic and trade growth is likely to remain soft, and the uncertainty about the US-China trade conflict will remain in place.” “The expected growth divergence in 2020 (slowing major DM economies but a rebound in battered EM economies) also doesn’t point to a positive SEK outlook.”

Rabobank analysts suggest that GBP is not the only currency to have benefited from Brexit relief as the EUR and CEE currencies such as the PLN have al

Rabobank analysts suggest that GBP is not the only currency to have benefited from Brexit relief as the EUR and CEE currencies such as the PLN have also found support on rising hopes that a no deal Brexit may be averted in the coming weeks. Key Quotes “The EUR and CEE currencies have also found support from a perceived easing in trade tensions between the US and China. EM currencies are sensitive to broad levels of risk appetite while the EUR is likely to be sensitive to the Chinese growth outlook - given Germany’s strong trading relationship with the world’s second largest economy. Even if any trade agreement between the US and China falls short of a comprehensive climb down, expectations that a phase 1 deal could be signed in November should bring reprieve to risk appetite. This is likely to bring further impetus to the moves that have already started to disrupt recent trends in the G10 FX market.”   “Measured both on a 12 month and a 6 month view, the safe haven JPY has been the best performing G10 currency. Measured on a 1 month view, however, the JPY is at the bottom of the table. The relative weakness of the JPY in this period may not be entirely a function of improving risk appetite. There has been a round of speculation in recent weeks that Japan’s Government pension Investment Fund is re-allocating into foreign assets to take advantage of better yields.” “That said, aside from the GBP, the G10 currencies that have performed well over the past month are the NZD, AUD. These currencies have become particularly sensitive to Chinese growth concerns, with the AUD frequently traded as a proxy to Chinese assets. If optimism about a trade deal between the US and China rises further it is likely that the AUD and the NZD will be among the best performer and the JPY the worst. A caveat is that any reprieve on a phase 1 trade deal could be short-lived.” “While we expect US/Sino tensions to return, improving risk appetite could continue to make its present felt at least on a 1 month view.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a basket of its main competitors, is extending the upside momentum to the 97.50/60 band, or 2-day

The Greenback remains bid and pushes DXY beyond 97.50.US 10-year yields shed further ground to the 1.76% area.Negative Brexit headlines hurt the risk-on mood.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck vs. a basket of its main competitors, is extending the upside momentum to the 97.50/60 band, or 2-day highs. US Dollar Index bid on Brexit concerns The index is extending the rebound from 2-month lows in the vicinity of 97.00 the figure (Friday), managing to return to the mid-97.00s in response to a wave of new concerns coming from the Brexit front. In fact, jitters over the EU-UK divorce have picked up pace earlier today after UK PM B.Johnson ‘threatened’ to call for early elections (likely before Christmas) if the UK Parliament votes down the government bill timetable later today. In the US data space, September’s Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing gauge are all due later. What to look for around USD The index managed to regain fresh buying impetus and clinch tops above 97.50 amidst rising scepticism on the US-China trade front and a cautious mood in the riskier assets following recent events in the Brexit negotiations. In the meantime, investors’ attention has now shifted to the increasing likeliness of another insurance cut by the Fed at the October meeting amidst some loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly after recent figures from the manufacturing sector, mixed inflation results and some slowdown in consumer spending. On the broader view, the constructive outlook in DXY looks a bit damaged but it still is in play amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks. In addition, the positive view on USD remains well sustained by its safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.16% at 97.48 and a breakout of 97.54 (high Oct.22) would open the door to 97.79 (100-day SMA) and finally 99.25 (high Oct.9). On the flip side, the next support lines up at 97.14 (monthly low Oct.18) seconded by 97.03 (monthly low Aug.9) and then 96.67 (low Jul.18).

Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, suggests that a few key markets have been trending in a more constructive direction lately, signa

Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, suggests that a few key markets have been trending in a more constructive direction lately, signalling less concern about growth risks with the US bond curve has been steepening, Eurozone financials have been outperforming and the USD has eased, to name several markets. Key Quotes “Markets had been signalling that global growth is faltering and policy is too tight for a while, so the trend shift recently is notable. The signal is far from uniform across markets however; breakeven yields suggest disinflation risks is still high, while copper and the ADXY have at best merely stabilised in recent weeks.” “A simple US recession probability model confirms that it’s far too soon to sound the all clear.”

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told lawmakers on Tuesday that chances of a no-deal Brexit would increase if parliament were to defeat the progra

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told lawmakers on Tuesday that chances of a no-deal Brexit would increase if parliament were to defeat the programme motion, the timetable for Brexit legislation. "The best way to avoid Brexit problems is to vote for my deal today," Johnson said. "If we reject this new deal, the alternative is to undo Brexit, surely no democrat would contemplate such a course. We must reject a second referendum." The GBP/USD pair continued to edge lower on these remarks and was last seen trading at 1.2900, losing 0.45% on the day. Below are some additional takeaways, per Reuters. "If amendments change the fundamentals of the deal, what would that say to the EU about us?" "Do you think the EU will open the Withdrawal Agreement again?" "Let us work night and day to get this done. The EU does not want a delay." "Vote for my programme motion or you give responsibility to the EU."

Rabobank analysts suggest that a standing repo facility from the US Fed would be an effective tool that could cut off spikes in repo rates, provide in

Rabobank analysts suggest that a standing repo facility from the US Fed would be an effective tool that could cut off spikes in repo rates, provide information on the appropriate level of reserves to prevent spikes in repo rates, and reduce the demand for reserves. Key Quotes “Last week the Fed started purchasing US treasury bills in order to raise the level of reserves in the financial system. While this may stabilize the repo markets in the medium term, the September turmoil has shown that the Fed lacks the appropriate tools to maintain stability in the repo market without interruption.” “Ironically, the Fed needed an episode of repo turmoil to learn that reserves had fallen too much and to get a better estimate of how much is needed to get back to an ample reserves regime. If the Fed does not develop better tools to control the repo markets, it is only a matter of time before we get another episode of extreme repo rate spikes.”

The selling bias around the single currency is now picking up further pace and drags EUR/USD to new 2-day lows near 1.1120. EUR/USD flirting with the

EUR/USD loses the grip further, near 1.1120.The Greenback extends the rebound. DXY clinches 97.50.Brexit jitters are back and weighing on sentiment.The selling bias around the single currency is now picking up further pace and drags EUR/USD to new 2-day lows near 1.1120. EUR/USD flirting with the 100-day SMA The daily pullback in spot is challenging the initial relevant support at the key 100-day SMA in the 1.1135/30 band, always on the back of a moderate pick up in the demand for the buck. In fact, negative Brexit headlines are weighing on the risk appetite mood after Number 10 said if the Parliament votes down the government timetable bill later today, PM B.Johnson will call for snap elections at some point before Christmas. While Brexit developments are likely to dominate the global mood in the very near term, investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming ECB event and the release of preliminary PMIs in core Euroland. What to look for around EUR The upside momentum in the pair has extended to the 1.1180 region earlier this week, where it met some strong resistance for the time being. In the meantime, the Brexit process and developments from the US-China trade front remain the exclusive drivers of the mood surrounding spot. It is worth recalling, however, that the recent positive 3-week streak in spot has been exclusively sponsored by the renewed offered bias in the Dollar and that the outlook in Euroland continues to deteriorate and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the longer run. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh on EUR in the short/medium term horizon. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.1129 and a break below 1.1049 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1009 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.1171 (monthly high Oct.18) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1206 (200-day SMA).

Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the RBNZ’s shock 50bp rate cut on 7 August ignited a steep AUD/NZD rally, from the 1.03 handle to 10 mo

Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the RBNZ’s shock 50bp rate cut on 7 August ignited a steep AUD/NZD rally, from the 1.03 handle to 10 month highs above 1.08 in late September. Key Quotes “AUD/NZD has consolidated in a 1.0650-1.0800 range and near term risks seem tilted modestly lower. While Australia’s broad commodity export basket has recovered some of its steep decline in July-August, iron ore has lost momentum this month and the demand outlook suggest further losses. Meanwhile we have raised our forecast for NZ dairy prices.” “Market pricing for further cash rate cuts has been trimmed for both the RBA and RBNZ, partly in line with global yields as US-China trade tensions have eased but also on local data and the tone of central bank officials.” “The RBNZ has more easing priced in than does the RBA, so based on our forecasts of one more cut each, AU-NZ rate spreads could fall slightly. This suggests the cross spends plenty of time under 1.0700 into month-end.” “But that would be an opportunity to buy, for a multi-month move to 1.1000, backed by fair value estimates holding well above 1.1000. On our calculations, AUD/NZD has been undervalued to some degree since 2016 but the gap has narrowed over 2019.”

GBP/USD is retracing down from the daily highs, now challenging the 1.2900 handle.  Brexit headlines are the main Cable drivers.

GBP/USD is retracing down from the daily highs, now challenging the 1.2900 handle. Brexit headlines are the main Cable drivers.    GBP/USD daily chart     The Sterling, on the daily chart, had a spike above the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) while reaching levels not seen since mid-May 2019. The Brexit deal optimism fuelled the GBP euphoria of the last weeks.     GBP/USD four-hour chart   The Cable is trading in a bull channel above the main SMAs. However, the market is retracing down now, challenging the 1.2881 support level, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.        GBP/USD 30-minute chart     GBP/USD is challenging the 200 SMA, suggesting a pullback down in the near term. If bears can break 1.2881, then the market could have a drop towards the 1.2814 level, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    On the flip side, if the spot regains the 1.2950 resistance, it can open the doors to a retest of the 1.3000 handle.     Additional key levels  

The USD/CAD pair built on its modest recovery move from three-month lows and refreshed session tops, around the 1.3120 region in the last hour. Follow

Intraday bounce gets an additional boost from softer Canadian data.The uptick seemed rather unaffected by a goodish pickup in Oil prices.A modest USD recovery further collaborated to the recovery move.The USD/CAD pair built on its modest recovery move from three-month lows and refreshed session tops, around the 1.3120 region in the last hour.
 
Following an early dip to the lowest level since July 22, the pair managed to stage a modest bounce and the uptick got an additional boost during the early North-American session following the release of softer Canadian macro data. Softer Canadian data provides an additional boost According to Statistics Canada, retail sales in Canada contracted by 0.1% in August and fell short of consensus estimates pointing to a growth of 0.4%. Meanwhile, sales excluding autos also missed expectations and dropped -0.2%.
 
The data helped offset a goodish pickup in Crude Oil prices, now up nearly 1% for the day, and turned out to be one of the key factors that exerted some downward pressure on the commodity-linked currency – Loonie.
 
This coupled with a modest US Dollar uptick, though lacked any strong bullish conviction amid Fed rate cut expectations, further collaborated to the pair's goodish intraday rebound of around 50 pips.
 
The pair has now recovered a major part of the previous session's downfall, albeit the recovery move might still be categorized as a technical correction and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly at higher levels. Technical levels to watch  

United States Redbook Index (MoM) increased to -0.1% in October 18 from previous -0.2%

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 4.3% (October 18) vs 4.1%

While addressing the House of Commons ahead of the critical Brexit vote on Tuesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated that they need to

While addressing the House of Commons ahead of the critical Brexit vote on Tuesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reiterated that they need to leave the European Union with their new Brexit deal on October 31st. "If this house backs the legislation, we can get Brexit done," Johnson said. Meanwhile, the British Pound continues to erase the gains it recorded against the USD on Monday. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was down 0.25% on the day at 1.2925. Below are some additional quotes, per Reuters. "I believe if we pass this deal and the legislation, we can turn the page and allow the UK to unite." "The best way to avoid any disruption from a no-deal is to vote for this deal today." "Voting for the legislation would unleash a tide of investment." "It would be a powerful shot in the arm for the economy."

Gold edged higher on Tuesday, albeit lacked any strong follow-through beyond $1490 level and remained well within a broader trading range held over th

Bulls struggled to build on the attempted intraday move up.Technical set-up seems tilted in favour of bearish traders.Gold edged higher on Tuesday, albeit lacked any strong follow-through beyond $1490 level and remained well within a broader trading range held over the past one week or so.
 
The recent range-bound trading action constituted towards the formation of a rectangle on the 1-hourly chart, suggesting indecision over the commodity's near-term direction.
 
Given that the precious metal has repeated failed to sustain/build on attempted intraday positive moves beyond 200-hour SMA, the set-up seems tilted in favour of bearish traders.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly/daily charts have also started gaining some negative traction and reinforce prospects for a further near-term depreciating move.
 
However, traders are likely to wait for a sustained break below the $1476-74 support before positioning for a further downfall back towards monthly swing lows – around the $1459 region.
 
On the flip side, a sustained move beyond the trading range resistance, near the $1496-97 region, should pave the way for a move back towards the $1510-12 heavy supply zone. Gold 1-hourly chart  

The data published by Statistics Canada on Tuesday revealed that retail sales in Canada contracted by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August following July

Retail sales in Canada declined unexpectedly in August.The USD/CAD pair rose above the 1.31 mark with the knee-jerk reaction.The data published by Statistics Canada on Tuesday revealed that retail sales in Canada contracted by 0.1% on a monthly basis in August following July's increase of 0.6% and fell short of the market expectation of +0.4%. Retail sales excluding autos in the same period came in at -0.2%. "Sales in the retail trade sector edged down 0.1% in August to $51.5 billion. Sales were down in six subsectors, representing 51% of retail trade," Statistics Canada noted in its press release. With the initial market reaction, the Loonie came under pressure and the USD/CAD pair was last seen trading at 1.3112, adding 0.2% on the day.

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below expectations (0.1%) in August: Actual (-0.2%)

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) registered at -0.1%, below expectations (0.4%) in August

The USD/JPY pair is struggling to make a decisive move in either direction on Tuesday and continues to fluctuate in a very tight range a little above

10-year US Treasury bond yield is erasing Monday's gains.Wall Street looks to open the day little changed.US Dollar Index rebounds toward mid-98s on Tuesday.The USD/JPY pair is struggling to make a decisive move in either direction on Tuesday and continues to fluctuate in a very tight range a little above the 108.50 mark. As of writing, the pair was unchanged on the day at 108.58. On Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said the trade deal with China was "coming along great," and White House economic adviser Kudlow noted that December tariff hikes could be eliminated if negotiations with China continued to go well. On the same sentiment, China’s Vice Foreign Minister  Le Yucheng on Tuesday said that they achieved "some progress" in trade talks with the US. Risk-on mood offsets USD weakness Despite the lack of interest in the Greenback, rising US Treasury bond yields on the back of the upbeat market sentiment at the start of the week made it difficult for the safe-haven JPY to find demand. Although the 10-year US T-bond yield is retracing Monday's gains on Tuesday, the mood doesn't seem to be turning sour with major European equity indexes posting modest gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures is up 0.1% on the day, suggesting that Wall Street's main indexes are likely to start the day either flat or slightly higher. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is adding 0.14% on the day at 97.46 to help the pair stay in its range. Existing home sales and the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index will be featured in the US economic docket but these data are unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction. Investors will be paying close attention to the Brexit vote later in the day as well.   Technical levels to watch for  

The GBP/USD pair lacked any firm directional bias on Tuesday and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session. Following

Investors preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of Brexit deal votes.A subdued USD price action does little to provide any meaningful impetus.The GBP/USD pair lacked any firm directional bias on Tuesday and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session.
 
Following the recent upsurge to over five-month tops, the pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and remained confined in a narrow trading band around mid-1.2900s ahead of a second reading of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Focus remains on Brexit developments Johnson will find out whether lawmakers are willing to back his plan and if passed, will be followed by a debate on the voting program. The government must win to proceed to the next stage of legislation and to get the Brexit done by October 31.
 
Nevertheless, the first vote, scheduled at 18:00 GMT, will play a key role in infusing a fresh bout of volatility across the GBP crosses. Given that chances for the approval of the Withdrawal Act Bill (WAB) have been improving, any pullback might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate some fresh bullish positions.
 
With the incoming Brexit-related headlines turning out to be an exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the Sterling, the price action seemed rather unaffected by a subdued US Dollar demand. Meanwhile, bullish traders are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the key 1.30 psychological mark before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Technical levels to watch  

Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.09%, above expectations (0.04%) in October

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman crossed the wires in the last minutes, reiterating that the government remains focused on winning sup

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman crossed the wires in the last minutes, reiterating that the government remains focused on winning support for the proposed Brexit deal and seeing the timetable delivered. "There’s no guarantee of the European Union (EU) granting an extension," the spokesman further noted. The British Pound largely ignored these comments and the GBP/USD pair was last seen trading at 1.2948, down 0.08% on the day. Below are some additional quotes, per Reuters. "The PM will open the Brexit debate on Tuesday." "Cabinet discussed the timetable for the Withdrawal Agreement bill." "Voting down the programme motion would have serious implications and would mean legislation will drift on and on, which is not in the UK's or the EU's interest." "Our focus is on winning the votes today so we can move on." "Voting down the programme motion risks handing control of situation to the EU, making no deal more likely."

EUR/GBP remains under heavy pressure in the area of 5-month lows around the 0.8600 handle on Tuesday. EUR/GBP keeps the attention on upcoming vote The

EUR/GBP exchanges gains with losses around 0.8600.The cross breaches the 200-week SMA, today at 0.8643.The European Parliament discusses Brexit deal later today.EUR/GBP remains under heavy pressure in the area of 5-month lows around the 0.8600 handle on Tuesday. EUR/GBP keeps the attention on upcoming vote The European cross is now attempting a consolidative move in the lower end of the recent range near the 0.8600 neighbourhood, or multi-month lows, always looking to Brexit headlines for direction and with alternating trends in both the quid and the shared currency. It is worth noting that the cross has recently broken below the 78.6% Fibo retracement of the May-August rally and the 200-week SMA in the 0.8640 region, both events collaborating further with the negative stance in the cross. Brexit-wise, UK PM B.Johnson will open a debate on his Brexit deal later today, although all the attention is expected to be on the vote on the bill’s timetable. Johnson’s deal will also be discussed in the European Parliament later in the day. EUR/GBP key levels The cross is up 0.01% at 0.8603 and faces the next resistance at 0.8667 (78.6% Fibo of the May-August rally) followed by 0.8815 (200-day SMA) and finally 0.8906 (50% Fibo of the May-August rally). On the other hand, a drop below 0.8574 (monthly low Oct.17) would expose 0.8488 (monthly low May 6) and then 0.8474 (2019 low Mar.12).

The USD/CAD pair lost more than 50 pips on Monday and continued to slide on Tuesday to touch its lowest level since July 22 at 1.3068 before staging a

Crude oil prices retrace Monday's losses ahead of API data.US Dollar Index posts small gains after falling for five straight days.Coming up: Retail sales data from Canada and existing home sales from the US.The USD/CAD pair lost more than 50 pips on Monday and continued to slide on Tuesday to touch its lowest level since July 22 at 1.3068 before staging a technical correction. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3095, up 0.08% on a daily basis. The US Dollar Index, which lost more than 1% last week amid the strong performance of major European currencies and heightened expectations of the Federal Reserve opting out for one more 25 basis points rate cut at the end of the month, is posting small recovery gains on Tuesday to help the pair floating in the positive territory. What's coming up? Later in the day, existing home sales and retail sales data from Canada will be looked upon for fresh impetus. More importantly, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will release its closely-watched Business Outlook Survey (BOS).  Previewing the BOS publication, "We do not expect the report to make a strong case for 2019 rate cuts, but would note that the survey period concluded in mid-September before the most recent US/China trade talks which should limit any positive implications for investment intentions,” said TD Securities analysts. Meanwhile, positive comments from officials hinting at a possible trade deal with the United States and China at the start of the week seem to be helping crude oil prices gain traction and allow the commodity-related Loonie to stay resilient against its rivals. Ahead of the weekly crude oil stock report of the American Petroleum Institue (API), the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is up 0.5% on the day at $53.70. Technical levels to watch for  

According to Rabobank analysts, the US existing home sales will be scrutinised for any warning signals that perhaps buyers have turned more cautious.

According to Rabobank analysts, the US existing home sales will be scrutinised for any warning signals that perhaps buyers have turned more cautious. Key Quotes “With the Fed cutting rates, lower mortgage rates should support demand. That said, demand could be restrained by rising economic uncertainty caused by the ongoing trade war.” “Also, if a house buyer has a particularly strong conviction that the Fed is likely to lower interest rates further, he/she may postpone the house purchase to benefit from even lower mortgage rates. The consensus expectation is for a modest 0.7% m/m fall to 5.45mn in September following two months of strong prints.”

The now softer stance in the European currency is prompting EUR/JPY to abandon the area of recent peaks in the mid-121.00s. EUR/JPY focused on risk tr

EUR/JPY loses upside momentum, back around 121.00.EUR-selling behind the correction lower in the cross.Focus remains on Brexit, US-China trade talks.The now softer stance in the European currency is prompting EUR/JPY to abandon the area of recent peaks in the mid-121.00s. EUR/JPY focused on risk trends The cross met important resistance in the mid-121.00s on Monday, or new 3-month tops, area coincident with the late July peaks. Renewed uncertainty stemming from the Brexit process, particularly since the Parliament’s vote on Saturday has been weighing on the broad risk appetite trends and lent some extra legs to the Japanese safe haven and the buck. In addition, cautiousness among investors has started to swell in light of the upcoming ECB event (Thursday) – the last meeting under President Draghi – and amidst the prevailing consensus that the Council could deliver a dovish message. No news on the US-China trade front other than the usual suspects leaves yields and thus the Japanese JPY on a consolidative/bearish view. EUR/JPY relevant levels At the moment the cross is losing 0.10% at 120.97 and a breach of 119.78 (100-day SMA) would expose 118.43 (55-day SMA) and finally 117.07 (monthly low Oct. 3/7). On the other hand, the next up barrier aligns at 121.47 (monthly high Oct.21) seconded by 122.23 (200-day SMA) and then 123.35 (monthly high Jul.1).

Mexico Jobless Rate in line with expectations (3.8%) in September

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a registered at 3.5%, below expectations (3.6%) in September

TD Securities analysts are looking for Canada’s retail sales to rise by 0.6% in August (market: 0.5%) on further strength in motor vehicle sales, whic

TD Securities analysts are looking for Canada’s retail sales to rise by 0.6% in August (market: 0.5%) on further strength in motor vehicle sales, which were also the primary driver behind a 0.4% increase last month. Key Quotes “Ex-auto sales should see a muted 0.1% gain, with gasoline prices exerting a modest headwind, while volumes should outperform the nominal print on lower consumer goods prices.” “At 10:30 we will get the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey which will serve as the final communication before the blackout period for the October 30th meeting begins at midnight. We do not expect the report to make a strong case for 2019 rate cuts, but would note that the survey period concluded in mid-September before the most recent US/China trade talks which should limit any positive implications for investment intentions.”

Ken Reid, a political editor at UTV, tweeted out in the last minutes that the Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was "highly likely" t

Ken Reid, a political editor at UTV, tweeted out in the last minutes that the Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) was "highly likely" to vote against the second reading and programme motion tonight. Meanwhile, "Labour will vote against second reading and programme motion, I'm told," Francis Elliott, a political editor for The Times, tweeted out. The British Pound largely ignored these developments. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was down 0.07% on the day at 1.2948 and the EUR/GBP pair was flat on the day at 0.8600.

Analysis team at ANZ suggests that they are forecasting the Australia’s headline inflation to print 0.5% QoQ in Q3, with the annual rate remaining at

Analysis team at ANZ suggests that they are forecasting the Australia’s headline inflation to print 0.5% QoQ in Q3, with the annual rate remaining at 1.6%. Key Quotes “The largest contributor to the headline figure was holiday travel and accommodation. Petrol prices are expected to detract from inflation this quarter, after rising sharply in the previous quarter.” “Trimmed mean inflation, the underlying measure of inflation focused on by the RBA, is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q. This would see the annual rate stay at 1.6%. We see the risks to trimmed mean inflation for the quarter as skewed to the downside slightly.” “Our forecast for trimmed mean inflation is in line with what the RBA published in its August SoMP. A number in line with this won’t put any pressure on the RBA to act sooner than we currently expect.” “At this point, trimmed mean inflation would need to considerably disappoint for us to think the RBA will cut again in 2019. If the RBA eases in November, it is likely to be the result of a combination of the Fed easing in October and another weak month of retail’s sales suggesting that the tax cuts are not being spent rather than soft inflation.”

British lawmaker Boles on Tuesday proposed an amendment to require the government to seek an extension of the Brexit transition period to December 202

British lawmaker Boles on Tuesday proposed an amendment to require the government to seek an extension of the Brexit transition period to December 2022 unless MPs pass a resolution to the contrary, as reported by Reuters. Investors are staying on the sidelines while waiting for today's votes and the British Pound is struggling to preserve its bullish momentum. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was trading at 1.2946, down 0.1% on the day and the EUR/GBP pair was virtually unchanged at 0.8600. 

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak crossed the wires in the last minutes, arguing that the oil production in the United States is unlikely to gro

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak crossed the wires in the last minutes, arguing that the oil production in the United States is unlikely to grow at the same pace as in previous years at current price levels. "The slow-down of oil production in the US is a trend," Novak added and noted that the US oil output was set to peak out in a few years. Crude oil prices seem to be reacting positively to these comments. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading at $53.80, adding 0.65% on a daily basis.

واجه زوج يورو/دولار EUR/USD بعض ضغوطات البيع في منطقة 1.1180، أو قممًا جديدة لمدة شهرين تم تسجيلها في بداية الأسبوع. عززت منطقة المقاومة هذه أيضًا تصح

واجه زوج يورو/دولار EUR/USD بعض ضغوطات البيع في منطقة 1.1180، أو قممًا جديدة لمدة شهرين تم تسجيلها في بداية الأسبوع. عززت منطقة المقاومة هذه أيضًا تصحيح فيبو لارتفاع 2017-2018 عند 1.1186. ومع ذلك، فإن النظرة الصعودية على المدى القريب لا تزال في وضع جيد بينما فوق المتوسط ​​المتحرك البسيط لمدة 55 يومًا في منتصف 1.10. إذا اكتسب زخم الشراء وتيرة إضافية، فيجب أن يعود المتوسط ​​المتحرك البسيط لمدة 200 يوم عند 1.1206 إلى الرادار. الرسم البياني اليومي لزوج يورو/دولار EUR/USD

The USD/CHF pair climbed to multi-day tops during the early European session on Tuesday, with bulls now eyeing a move beyond the 0.9900 round-figure m

Trade optimism extended some support to the USD.Reviving safe-haven demand might cap strong gains.The USD/CHF pair climbed to multi-day tops during the early European session on Tuesday, with bulls now eyeing a move beyond the 0.9900 round-figure mark.
 
The pair added to the overnight modest recovery gains from over one-month lows and continued gaining some follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. Signs of progress over a possible resolution of the prolonged US-China trade disputes extended some support to the US Dollar and turned out to be one of the key factors fueling the ongoing short-covering bounce. Upside seems limited Meanwhile, the USD uptick is likely to remain limited amid firming market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further in October. This coupled with the prevalent cautious mood, reinforced by an intraday pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, might help revive the Swiss Franc's perceived safe-haven status and further collaborated towards capping gains for the major.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 0.9900 handle before confirming that the recent downfall is over and positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Technical levels to watch  

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the market is expecting the Richmond manufacturing index of the US to improve marginally in October to -7 follo

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the market is expecting the Richmond manufacturing index of the US to improve marginally in October to -7 following the sharp 10pt decline to -9 in September (10am ET). Key Quotes “This would largely mimic the improvement in the NY Empire survey, but stand in contrast with the decline in the Philly Fed index.” “Separately, the consensus is looking for a modest -0.7% m/m retreat in existing home sales for September, following the nice 1.3% jump in the month before. All in, existing home sales are tracking a notable recovery so far in 2019.”

United Kingdom CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM) registered at -37, below expectations (-28) in October

Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, notes that Eurozone’s bank lending standards eased again slightly in the third quarter. Key Quotes “On average,

Bert Colijn, senior economist at ING, notes that Eurozone’s bank lending standards eased again slightly in the third quarter. Key Quotes “On average, it became slightly easier to borrow for non-financial corporates and home buyers, which should provide some relief for the investment outlook that has taken a hit because of falling new orders and weakening confidence.” “The favourable standards for approving new loans was balanced somewhat by the tightening in credit conditions, meaning that especially riskier loans have seen spreads increase. That has not deterred banks from taking on loans, though demand for lending was roughly unchanged in the third quarter according to the survey.” “For the fourth quarter, banks are not expecting meaningful changes to their own standards and conditions and also not to demand for lending.” “The restart of the programme can be expected to increase these positive contributions, although side effects continue to be reported by the banking sector, mainly around profitability concerns.” “Still, the ECB will likely take this on board as a confirmation that APP will support loose financial conditions as concerns about the effectiveness of the programme become broader.” “Financial conditions continue to contribute to a lending outlook that supports modest investment growth, although the outlook for investment will likely be dominated by trade developments in the latter months of the year.”

EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.114 Today Daily Change 23 Today Daily Change % -0.09 Today daily open 1.115 Trends Daily SMA20 1.1006 Daily SMA50

EUR/USD met some selling pressure in the 1.1180 region, or new 2-month peaks recorded at the beginning of the week. This area of resistance is also reinforced by a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 rally at 1.1186.The near term bullish view, however, remains well in play while above the 55-day SMA in the mid-1.10s.If the buying impetus picks up extra pace, then the critical 200-day SMA at 1.1206 should return to the radar.EUR/USD daily chart  

A senior Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi was out with some trade-related comments in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that the US forced China into a trad

A senior Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi was out with some trade-related comments in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that the US forced China into a trade war and China must take necessary countermeasures to protect its interests.
 
The comments, however, did little to influence the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets, or provide any meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 97.38 Today Daily Change 18 Today Daily Change % 0.06 Today daily open 97.32 Trends Daily SMA20 98.61 Dai

The index is looking to extend the recovery from recent lows in levels just above the key support at 97.00 the figure (Friday). The recent drop to the oversold area has also helped with the bounce.DXY is now flirting with the key 200-day SMA near 97.40. A breakout above this area on a convincing fashion is needed to reassert the upside pressure.In case sellers regain the upper hand, a potential move to the 97.00 neighbourhood (and probably) below should not be ruled out.DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 120.93 Today Daily Change 47 Today Daily Change % -0.10 Today daily open 121.05 Trends Daily SMA20 118.69 Daily SMA

The rally in EUR/JPY appears to have met important resistance in the 121.50 region, coincident with late July peaks. The ongoing correction lower comes in line with softness in EUR, some pick up in the demand for safe havens and recent overbought levels, as measured by the RSI.The continuation of the leg lower should meet initial support in the 100-day SMA in the 119.80 region ahead of the 55-day SMA, today at 118.43.The resumption of the up move is expected to target the key 200-day SMA at 122.23.EUR/JPY daily chart  

Gold edged higher through the early European session on Tuesday and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, around the $1489 re

The overnight downtick remained limited amid a subdued USD demand.A sharp intraday slide in the US bond yields extended additional support.Gold edged higher through the early European session on Tuesday and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, around the $1489 region.
 
Following an early tick lower to near one-week lows, the precious metal managed to regain some positive traction and recovered a part of the previous session's modest downtick. The US President Donald Trump's overnight comments raised hopes for a possible resolution of the prolonged US-China trade disputes and weighed on the precious metal's safe-haven demand. Cautious mood helped gain some traction However, a combination of supporting factors helped limit any follow-through selling, rather attracted some fresh dip-buying interest. A subdued US Dollar demand, amid firming expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further at its upcoming meeting on October 29-30, was seen as one of the key factors lending some support to the dollar-denominated commodity - Gold.
 
This coupled with a sharp intraday fall in the US Treasury Yields, possibly in the back of a softer mood around equity markets, further underpinned the non-yielding yellow metal and remained supportive of the intraday uptick. The commodity remained well within a near two-week-old trading range, warranting some caution before placing any aggressive directional bets.
 
There isn't any major market-moving US economic data due for release on Tuesday and hence, the broader market risk sentiment, coupled with the USD price dynamics might continue to act as key drivers of any meaningful intraday momentum. Technical levels to watch  

ANZ analysts suggest that India's inflation data mirror the consumption trends in recent months as core inflation has continued to slip, in line with

ANZ analysts suggest that India's inflation data mirror the consumption trends in recent months as core inflation has continued to slip, in line with weak demand, but the difference between rural and urban consumer price index (CPI) has been amplified in 2019 led by higher food prices while core inflation has been moderating for both. Key Quotes “The difference in inflation rates is visible across Indian states as well, with the degree of inter-state variation also increasing in recent years.” “The trends in CPI and wholesale price index (WPI) are also diverging. It is clear that manufactured products are driving the slide in WPI, indicative of the weak pricing power of industrial companies. This sits with the sharp decline in the RBI's forward-looking surveys for capacity utilisation rates.” “Amid the differing trends, what stands out is a secular slowdown in non-food inflation across these indices. We thus reiterate the need for more demand augmenting measures to revive waning consumption growth. This will support convergence of inflation rates across regions and states, making monetary policy more effective; and between CPI and WPI as firms regain pricing power.”

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index dipped from previous 3.5% to 3.2% in September

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £8.734B below forecasts (£8.8B) in September

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that Australia’s September quarter CPI is likely to rise 0.6%, lifting the annual pace to 1.8%yr from 1.6%y

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that Australia’s September quarter CPI is likely to rise 0.6%, lifting the annual pace to 1.8%yr from 1.6%yr. Key Quotes “The September quarter tends to be a seasonally strong quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of –0.1ppt. The seasonally adjusted CPI is forecast to rise 0.5%. The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.32%qtr/1.5%yr and the weighted median is forecast to rise 0.27%qtr/1.2%yr. The average of the core inflation measures is forecast to print 0.29%qtr with the annual pace easing back to 1.3%yr from 1.4%yr.” “Boosting the CPI in the September quarter is food (drought offsetting normal seasonal softness), alcohol & tobacco (mostly the annual re-indexing of the tobacco excise) and holiday travel & accommodation (with domestic lifting 6% and international rising 3% in the quarter).” “Core inflation remains well below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs offset modest inflationary pressure elsewhere. Competitive disinflationary pressure in consumer goods is limiting the pass through of the weaker AUD though it is having some impact. Given this we find it hard to envisage core inflation breaking higher any time soon let alone returning to the mid-point of the 2%yr to 3%yr target band.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 200 day ma at 109.06 and they would allow for this to ho

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY continues to consolidate below the 200 day ma at 109.06 and they would allow for this to hold the initial test. Key Quotes “The up move has lost some steam and further consolidation is likely. Beyond this the market remains well placed to try the topside once more. Above the market lie the 55 and 200 week moving averages at 109.75/110.12 and the 2015-2019 downtrend at 110.98.” “Dips will find initial support at the 20 day ma at 107.96 ahead of the 106.48 October low.” “Failure at 106.47 will target 106.00, then 105.32/78.6% retracement which is the last defence for the 104.46 August low.”

The AUD/USD pair continued with its struggle to find acceptance above 50% Fibonacci level of the 0.7082-0.6671 downfall and quickly retreated few pips

Bulls failed to capitalize on the early uptick to fresh one-month tops.Technical set-up points to a further near-term appreciating move.The AUD/USD pair continued with its struggle to find acceptance above 50% Fibonacci level of the 0.7082-0.6671 downfall and quickly retreated few pips from fresh one-month tops set earlier this Tuesday.
 
The positive momentum once again faltered near the 0.6880-90 region, coinciding with a previous congestion zone, which should now act as a key pivotal point and help determine the pair's near-term trajectory.
 
Slightly overbought conditions on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor prompting some profit-taking at higher levels, albeit bullish oscillators on the daily chart support prospects for additional gains.
 
Hence, any pullback below 100-day SMA resistance breakpoint – around the 0.6855 region – is likely to attract some dip-buying interest and help limit the downside near the 0.6830-25 region (38.2% Fibo. level).
 
On the flip side, sustained strength beyond the mentioned barrier has the potential to lift the pair beyond the 0.6900 round figure mark towards testing the next hurdle marked by 61.8% Fibo. level, near the 0.6925 region. AUD/USD daily chart  

FX Strategists at UOB Group now see USD/JPY moving into a rangebound phase in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for USD to “test th

FX Strategists at UOB Group now see USD/JPY moving into a rangebound phase in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for USD to “test the 108.10” did not materialize as it traded in relatively quiet manner and within a narrow range of 108.28/108.66. The price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and USD is likely to continue to trade sideways for today, expected to between 108.35 and 108.80”. Next 1-3 weeks: “While our ‘strong support’ level at 108.10 is still intact, the weak daily closing last Friday (108.42, -0.21%) is enough to indicate that the USD strength that started more than a week ago has run its course. The price action was not surprising as we cautioned last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 108.65) that the “odds for further USD strength have diminished”. From here, USD is likely to consolidate and trade sideways within a 107.80/109.00 range. Looking ahead, there is no pre-indication on which side of the trading range is more vulnerable”.

The European Union Council President Donald Tusk was out with some comments via a tweet and said: I am consulting EU leaders on how to respond to the

The European Union Council President Donald Tusk was out with some comments via a tweet and said: I am consulting EU leaders on how to respond to the British request for an Art. 50 extension. We should be ready for every scenario. But I made clear to PM @BorisJohnson: a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision.

The outlook on NZD/USD remains bullish with the next target at the 0.6450 level, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expec

The outlook on NZD/USD remains bullish with the next target at the 0.6450 level, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected NZD to strengthen yesterday but held the view “0.6410 could be just out of reach”. The subsequent advance exceeded our expectation as NZD rose to 0.6416. While overbought, the current rally is not showing sign of weakness just yet. From here, NZD could continue to edge higher towards 0.6430. For today, last month’s 0.6450 peak is unlikely to be challenged. Support is at 0.6380 followed by 0.6360”. Next 1-3 weeks: “The 0.6410 level that was first highlighted last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 0.6355) was exceeded as NZD rose to 0.6416. The price action was within our expectation as we indicated yesterday (21 Oct, spot at 0.6385) that “the solid price action suggests a move above 0.6410 would not be surprising” We added, “a break of 0.6410 would indicate NZD has enough momentum to challenge last month’s 0.6450 peak”. In other words, NZD remains strong and the focus has shifted to 0.6450. Looking ahead, if NZD were to register a NY closing above 0.6450, further sustained advance towards 0.6500 would not be surprising. On the downside, only a break of 0.6340 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.6310 yesterday) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased”.

The upside momentum in the single currency is losing further traction on Tuesday and is dragging EUR/USD to the area of daily lows near 1.1140. EUR/US

EUR/USD loses the grip and drops to 1.1140, daily lows.Lack of further progress in Brexit hits sentiment.German Bund yields deflate from recent tops.The upside momentum in the single currency is losing further traction on Tuesday and is dragging EUR/USD to the area of daily lows near 1.1140. EUR/USD attention stays on Brexit, risk trends The pair is now losing ground for the second session in a row, extending the negative start of the week and correcting further from Monday’s 2-month highs in the 1.1180 region amidst a tight trading range and absence of significant catalysts. Spot is facing some renewed downside pressure in tandem with somewhat rising uncertainty around the Brexit negotiation, particularly exacerbated after UK PM B.Johnson’s parliamentary defeat last Saturday. Nothing is scheduled data wise in Euroland today, while the focus of attention remains on the ECB event –the last one under Draghi’s presidency – and the release of advanced PMIs in core Euroland, both due later this week. What to look for around EUR The upside momentum in the pair has extended to the 1.1180 region earlier this week, where it met some strong resistance for the time being. In the meantime, the Brexit process and developments from the US-China trade front remain the exclusive drivers of the mood surrounding spot. It is worth recalling, however, that the recent positive 3-week streak in spot has been exclusively sponsored by the renewed offered bias in the Dollar and that the outlook in Euroland continues to deteriorate and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the longer run. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh on EUR in the short/medium term horizon. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.04% at 1.1144 and a break below 1.1135 (100-day SMA) would target 1.1049 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 1.1171 (monthly high Oct.18) seconded by 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1206 (200-day SMA).

The NZD/USD pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, comfortably above the 0.6400 handle, and consolidated the recent strong gains to over

Continues gaining traction for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday.Positive trade-related developments benefitted perceived riskier currencies.Fed rate cut expectations kept the USD depressed and remained supportive.The NZD/USD pair was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, comfortably above the 0.6400 handle, and consolidated the recent strong gains to over one-month tops.
 
The pair continued gaining some follow-through traction for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday and added to its recent goodish recovery move from multi-year tops amid positive trade-related news-flow, which benefitted perceived riskier currencies like the Kiwi. Trade optimism/subdued USD demand supportive The US President Donald Trump on Monday said that he hopes to sign a trade deal with China at the Chile APEC summit, scheduled next November, and White House adviser Larry Kudlow said that tariffs planned for December could be withdrawn if progress is made.
 
The latest developments raised optimism about a possible resolution of the prolonged US-China trade disputes, which coupled with a subdued US Dollar price action – despite a positive tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields – remained supportive of the move up.
 
It will now be interesting to see if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position or opt to take some profits off the table amid absent relevant market-moving US economic releases on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch  

The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that Brexit is a waste of time and energy. Key quotes

The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that Brexit is a waste of time and energy. Key quotes: It is painful spending so much time on Brexit.
Will always regret the UK's decision to leave the EU.
It is not possible for the EU to ratify Brexit before the UK does. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair continued with its struggle to make it through the key 1.30 psychological mark and dropped to fresh session lows, further below mid-1.2900s in the last hour.

Cable should break above the ley 1.30 handle in order to allow for extra gains to probably 1.3150, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 2

Cable should break above the ley 1.30 handle in order to allow for extra gains to probably 1.3150, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for GBP to trade in a “lower trading range” was incorrect as it surged and took out the major 1.3000 level (high of 1.3012). The rally appears to be over-extended and while a retest of 1.3010/15 level is not ruled out, the next resistance at 1.3050 is likely out of reach. Support is at 1.2920 followed by 1.2880”. Next 1-3 weeks: “There is no change to our view from yesterday (21 Oct, spot at 1.2880) wherein “GBP has to ‘punch’ above 1.3000 and register a NY closing above this level in order to indicate that the current rally has enough ‘ammunitions’ to extend to 1.3050, possibly as high as 1.3150”. GBP subsequently rose to 1.3012 but was unable to maintain a toehold above 1.3000 (NY close of 1.2958). That said, further GBP strength is not ruled out and only a break of 1.2770 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.2700 yesterday) would indicate that the positive phase that started more than a week ago has run its course”.

Analysts at Standard Chartered note that China’s economic growth is on a downward trend, having slowed steadily to 6.6% in 2018 from a peak of 14.2% i

Analysts at Standard Chartered note that China’s economic growth is on a downward trend, having slowed steadily to 6.6% in 2018 from a peak of 14.2% in 2007. Key Quotes “While the slowdown is a nationwide phenomenon, growth in the south has outpaced that in the north in recent years; and within the southern region, new engines of growth are emerging and surpassing the country’s traditional growth-driving regions.” “The growth potential of the south-central region remains large, in our view. In 2018, its per-capita GDP was the lowest in the country and its urbanisation rate was 4.8ppt below the nationwide level.” “Its growth has surpassed the national rate since 2001 and the rest of the southern region since 2008, averaging 10.8% over the past decade. Meanwhile, increasing numbers of industrial companies may have relocated to the region in recent years to take advantage of lower wages and housing prices. The central government has adopted a coordinated regional development strategy to boost infrastructure investment and improve the business environment in less developed areas.”

The European Union Council President Donald Tusk, speaking in the parliament this Tuesday, said that we are ready for all scenarios and will react to

The European Union Council President Donald Tusk, speaking in the parliament this Tuesday, said that we are ready for all scenarios and will react to Brexit delay request in the coming days. Still consulting leaders on Brexit extension, which will depend on what UK lawmakers decide or do not, Tusk added further.
 
The comments did little to influence the British Pound as investors held back from placing any bets and look forward to a second reading of the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Act Bill (WAB).

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD has reached the psychological resistance at 1.30 and directly above here we have the 200 wee

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD has reached the psychological resistance at 1.30 and directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3148 and the 1.3187 May high. Key Quotes “We would allow for some near term consolidation here, but provided dips lower hold over 1.2582 (20th September high) an immediate upside bias is maintained. The 1.3187 May high guards the 1.3382 2019 high.” “Immediate support lies at 1.2582 the 20th September high ahead of the 1.2382 17th July low and the 1.2275 uptrend. The near term uptrend guards 1.2196/94.” “Below the current October low at 1.2194 lies the early and mid-August lows at 1.2091/15 and major support lies at the 1.1958 September low.”

The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the early uptick to multi-day tops and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, just

Trade optimism weighed on the JPY’s safe-haven status and helped gain some traction.Some follow-through uptick in the US bond yields failed to revive the USD buying interest.The pair seems more likely to extend the sideways move ahead of the next FOMC meeting.The USD/JPY pair failed to capitalize on the early uptick to multi-day tops and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, just above mid-108.00s.
 
The pair gained some follow-through traction during the early Asian session on Tuesday and added to the previous session's modest positive move amid signs of progress over a possible resolution of the prolonged US-China trade disputes. Subdued USD demand capping gains In the latest development, the US President Donald Trump on Monday said that the trade deal with China was coming along great and that he hopes to sign a deal with China at the Chile APEC summit, scheduled next November.
 
Adding to this, White House adviser Larry Kudlow said that tariffs scheduled for December could be withdrawn if progress is made, which dented the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and provided a minor lift to the pair.
 
Bullish traders further took cues from a positive tone around the US Treasury bond yields, albeit a subdued US Dollar demand failed to provide any meaningful impetus and kept a lid on the pair's attempted positive move.
 
The Greenback remained depressed amid firming market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on October 29-30 and might continue to cap any further gains, at least for now.
 
In absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, the pair seems more likely to continue with its range-bound trading action and remains at the mercy of broader market risk sentiment/the USD price dynamics. Technical levels to watch  

Analysts at TD Securities note that Speaker John Bercow rejected Boris Johnson's request for another "Meaningful Vote" yesterday, so the government wi

Analysts at TD Securities note that Speaker John Bercow rejected Boris Johnson's request for another "Meaningful Vote" yesterday, so the government will press ahead with its plans to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) today. Key Quotes “There will be two key votes to watch today: the first (known as "second reading") on the Bill itself, which is likely to pass, as some MPs support passing it to allow for amendments later this week.” “The second vote will be on the scheduling, and the government will attempt to force it through by week-end, keeping the UK on track to leave the EU by 31 October. Should this vote be rejected, an extension will become more necessary, even if a short technical one.”

ANZ analysts explain that in what’s been a broad-based slowdown for the New Zealand economy, the pace of headline GDP growth has almost halved from ar

ANZ analysts explain that in what’s been a broad-based slowdown for the New Zealand economy, the pace of headline GDP growth has almost halved from around 4% y/y in 2016 to 2.1% in June 2019. Key Quotes “The leading indicators are all suggesting there’s more slowing to come in the near term. We expect annual GDP growth will feature a 1-handle in the first half of 2020, but are hopeful that accommodative monetary conditions, still-elevated (but easing) net migration inflows, and a buoyant household sector will put a floor under things. However, sub-par growth is inconsistent with intensifying inflation pressures over the medium term, which – alongside inflation expectations threatening to slip – will see the RBNZ cut the OCR further.” “We’re expecting a 25bp cut in November, and two follow-up cuts in February and May next year to take the OCR to just 0.25%. But the RBNZ won’t be the only central bank cutting interest rates over the year ahead.” “Growth among our trading partners has also been slipping. And with domestic and global risks skewed to the downside at a time when monetary policy running into conventional limits, there are increasing calls for the Government to up the fiscal-stimulus ante.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD held steady yesterday and continues to target initially the 200 day ma at 1.1207 and then the

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that EUR/USD held steady yesterday and continues to target initially the 200 day ma at 1.1207 and then the top of the channel at 1.1290. Key Quotes “The 55 week ma lies at 1.1258. Intraday dips are indicated to be likely to hold in the 1.1120/1.1085 vicinity. This guards the short term uptrend at 1.1047. Longer term the critical resistance to overcome is the 200 week ma at 1.1355 and while we would allow for this zone of resistance to hold the initial test, longer term we look for a break higher to feature. This will target 1.1520/70, the 2019 high, as a minimum.” “Below 1.0879 we have the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814.”

GBP/USD buyers have reasons to worry as the pair trades near 1.2985 prior to the London open on Tuesday.

GBP/USD takes the bids near a multi-month high flashed on Monday.Overbought RSI, Doji on the daily chart question bulls.61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 200-day SMA gain sellers’ attention.GBP/USD buyers have reasons to worry as the pair trades near 1.2985 prior to the London open on Tuesday. Among them, a Doji candle on the daily chart, a bearish technical formation, and overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) take the first seats. With this, bears will look for confirmations during the pair’s declines below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-September downpour, at 1.2839, which in turn could drag them towards 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2716. It should also be noted that a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2670 and September month high close to 1.2582 will please bears afterward. Alternatively, pair’s extended rise above 1.3013 could push bulls to aim for May month ghi around 1.3180. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: pullback expected  

CME Group’s preliminary figures for JPY futures markets saw open interest rising for the second consecutive session on Monday, this time by just 229 c

CME Group’s preliminary figures for JPY futures markets saw open interest rising for the second consecutive session on Monday, this time by just 229 contracts. On the other hand, volume dropped for the third straight session, now by around 11.5K contracts. USD/JPY still targets the 109.00 areaUSD/JPY recovered ground lost on Monday following three daily pullbacks. Rising open interest in the Japanese safe haven allows for the continuation of the recovery in spot, although a strong resistance aligns in the 109.00 neighbourhood, where also sits the key 200-day SMA.

Danske Bank analysts suggest that it is a very quiet day on the data release front and the Brexit will continue to catch the limelight with the Boris

Danske Bank analysts suggest that it is a very quiet day on the data release front and the Brexit will continue to catch the limelight with the Boris Johnson government trying to push through his Brexit law in the House of Commons in only three days. Key Quotes “The big moment is around 20:00 CEST when the MPs vote on the general principle of the bill followed by a vote on the timetable for the rest of the bill. The bill is expected to survive the former but may lose the latter, which would make it very difficult for Johnson to leave the EU by 31 October. We still need to monitor whether there may be support for tweaking the bill in such a way that there is no longer support for passing the overall bill. In particular focus is on (1) a confirmatory referendum and (2) a permanent customs union.” “The Hungarian central bank (MNB) is set to announce its monetary policy rate decision today. In line with Bloomberg and Reuters consensus, we expect the policy rate to stay unchanged at 0.90%. The MNB's tone is likely to continue to be dovish on decelerating inflation but the recent Brexit deal has supported central and eastern European currencies, including the HUF. Thus, there is less pressure on consumer prices from HUF devaluation in the future.”

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the NBH to keep all its policy rates and the liquidity target to stay unchanged at today's Monetary Council (M

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the NBH to keep all its policy rates and the liquidity target to stay unchanged at today's Monetary Council (MC) meeting in Hungary. Key Quotes “The external environment remains dovish and domestic data has come out more-or-less in line with NBH’s September view. As such, we think NBH will see no reason to change their loose monetary policy setup.” “Last week, Deputy Governor Nagy, at a conference in Budapest once again said that inflation has “effectively disappeared” and added that low interest rates are a “new norm”. This suggests the final paragraph of the press statement is likely to say that inflation risks are asymmetric and to the downside. We also them to state the NBH will remain in a “wait-and-see” data-driven mode.”

GBP/USD is trading around 1.30 and awaiting a critical vote on Brexit in the UK parliament. The technical battle lines are drawn. The Technical Conflu

GBP/USD is trading around 1.30 and awaiting a critical vote on Brexit in the UK parliament. The technical battle lines are drawn. The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that initial resistance awaits at 1.2994, which is the convergence of the previous 4h-high, the previous weekly high, the Simple Moving Average 5-15m, and the Bollinger Band 15min-Upper.  The next cap is 1.3027, which is the meeting point of the Pivot Point one-day Resistance 1 and the BB 4h-Upper.  GBP/USD's upside target is 1.3142, which is where the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1 meets the price.  Support awaits at 1.2906, which is the confluence of the BB 4h-Middle and the PP one-month Resistance 2. Lower, robust support awaits at 1.2879, which is the juncture of the previous daily low, the SMA 100-1h, and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week. All in all, the path of least resistance is down.  This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD, although some consolidation is likely in the next sessions. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We h

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain constructive on EUR/USD, although some consolidation is likely in the next sessions. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday “the rally is deep in overbought territory and further sustained gain is not likely”. We added, “EUR is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways within a 1.1130/1.1180 range”. EUR subsequently traded between 1.1135 and 1.1179, relatively close to our expected sideway-trading range. The current movement is still viewed as part of a consolidation phase even though the slightly weakened underlying tone suggests a lower trading range of 1.1120/1.1170”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We maintain our positive outlook for EUR and highlighted last Friday (18 Oct, spot at 1.1120) that “the focus is firmly at the 1.1165 resistance now”. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1172 before ending the day (and the week) on a strong note (NY close of 1.1169, +0.42%). The current EUR rally still appears ‘healthy’ and a move above 1.1200 would not be surprising but 1.1250 is a much stronger resistance and may not yield as easily. On the downside, only a break of 1.1070 (‘strong support’ level slightly higher than 1.1050 previously) would indicate that the current positive phase in EUR that started more than a week ago (see annotations in chart below) has run its course”.

Open interest in GBP futures markets went down for another session on Monday, this time by more than 6K contracts according to advanced figures from C

Open interest in GBP futures markets went down for another session on Monday, this time by more than 6K contracts according to advanced figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume reversed two daily pullbacks in a row and rose by just 324 contracts. GBP/USD meets a tough barrier around 1.30Cable’s price action lacked of direction on Monday amidst declining open interest and a small uptick in volume. While Brexit headlines are expected to keep the flow of volatility intact for the time being, the 1.30 region emerges as a strong barrier for GBP-bulls in the near term.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 22: Brexit: Parliament will have its first say on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's deal today after 18

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 22: Brexit: Parliament will have its first say on Prime Minister Boris Johnson's deal today after 18:00 GMT. After Speaker John Bercow denied the government another "Meaningful Vote", Johnson has opted for the full legislation, known as the Withdrawal Act Bill (WAB). The House of Commons will then vote on the voting program which aims to conclude the process within three days, to get Brexit done by October 31. The opposition is set to push for amendments, including a customs union and a second referendum, which may derail the process. The EU is watching the process and ready to grant an extension. Another volatile day is likely for GBP/USD, which hovers around 1.30. Trade talks: US officials have been sending mixed signals about the state of negotiations. White House adviser Larry Kudlow suggested that the US may drop its intention to slap new tariffs on December 15 if talks go well. President Donald Trump was also optimistic, while others suggested it may take move time. The broad market mood is positive. USD/JPY is below 109 and Gold under $1,500.  Canada: Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won a minority government and lost the popular vote. He is set to be returned as PM but will need support to pass major legislation. The Canadian dollar held up its gains, with USD/CAD trading below 1.31. The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Retail Sales are on the agenda today. US Existing Home Sales and the Federal Budget Balance are of interest, but trade and Brexit will likely set the tone.  Cryptocurrencies have stabilized with Bitcoin around $8,200,   

UOB Group’s Economist M.Udomkerdmongkol reviewed the recent exports data from Thailand. Key Quotes “Thailand’s Sep exports dropped 1.4% y/y with value

UOB Group’s Economist M.Udomkerdmongkol reviewed the recent exports data from Thailand. Key Quotes “Thailand’s Sep exports dropped 1.4% y/y with value of US$20.4 billion because of a global economic slowdown and the US-China trade dispute”. “Sep imports contracted 4.2% y/y led by lower imports of raw materials, crude oil and capital goods”. “For the first nine months of 2019, exports and imports fell 2.1% y/y and 3.7% y/y, respectively”. “Thailand’s exports are expected to decline 2.5% this year amid slower global growth prospects”.    

Failure to extend the latest recovery seems to portray the USD/CHF pair’s weakness as it trades around 0.9870 amid pre-European session on Tuesday.

USD/CHF seesaws around late-Friday tops.100-HMA, Friday’s high will restrict the latest pullback.September month low can please sellers during the declines.Failure to extend the latest recovery seems to portray the USD/CHF pair’s weakness as it trades around 0.9870 amid pre-European session on Tuesday. The pair trades below 100-Hour Simple Moving Average (HMA) and Friday’s high, around 0.9900, which holds the key to pair’s further recovery towards a 200-HMA level of 0.9930 and 0.9960 numbers to the north. However, 1.0000 psychological magnet will continue restricting pair’s near-term upside. On the contrary, a downside break below Friday’s low of 0.9837 can recall September month bottom, around 0.9800, prior to diverting bears towards 0.9800. USD/CHF hourly chart Trend: bearish  

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added nearly 3.4K contracts to their open interest positions at the beginning

In light of flash data for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added nearly 3.4K contracts to their open interest positions at the beginning of the week. Volume, instead, shrunk for the second session in a row, now by around 11.3K contracts. EUR/USD stays capped by 1.1180EUR/USD shed some ground on Monday amidst rising open interest, which should open the door for the continuation of the correction lower in the next sessions. The move, however, looks limited against the backdrop of shrinking volume and could give way to some consolidation while a stronger catalyst for an extension of the up move turns up (or not) in the short-term horizon.

Economist at UOB Group E.Tanuwidjaja assessed the implications of the nickel ore exports ban on the Indonesian current account. Key Quotes “Ministry o

Economist at UOB Group E.Tanuwidjaja assessed the implications of the nickel ore exports ban on the Indonesian current account. Key Quotes “Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources (ESDM) has confirmed the earlier-than-scheduled timing for the ban of nickel ore exports. Under the ESDM Regulation 11/2019, the export of all nickel ores will effectively be banned as of 31 December 2019 instead of 11 January 2022 as per initial regulation”. “While it serves to maintain the country’s nickel reserve for the greater benefits to the nation, the acceleration of the nickel ban is also intended to advance the local downstream processing facility, mainly battery and electric vehicle”. “Given the run rate of nickel ore since 2018, we estimate exports would be reduced by about USD65mn each month or USD0.78bn per annum; which would have little to no impact on the country’s trade deficits considering the current trade deficit amount”. “The recent development shows that the trend of higher nickel content electric battery is the present and the future for electric vehicles. If the current nickel export ban be supported by consistent legal and policy certainties, as well as sustained and immediate development of the processing and downstream industries, the resulting multiplier effect in reducing current account deficit will be substantial in the long-term. This would bring about more stability in the rupiah and opens room for a lower interest rate environment in the country”.

Increasing expectations of the US-China trade deal, backed by calls of progress from both the economies, please the Asian investors.

Headlines from the US, China keep favoring odds of a trade deal around November.The light economic calendar will continue pushing traders towards trade/Brexit news.Increasing expectations of the US-China trade deal, backed by calls of progress from both the economies, give a little scope to the Asian investors to doubt their global counterparts. As a result, the MSCI’s index of Asia Pacific shares ex-Japan stays mostly positive with 0.30% gains whereas Japan’s Nikkei portrays 0.25% benefits to buyers while heading into the European session on Tuesday. It should be noted that all the key Wall Street indices, namely SP500, DJI30 and NASDAQ closed in positive territory on Monday after trade signals from the United States (US) raised hopes of a deal with China in November, also cutting odds of December month US tariff hikes on Chinese goods. Key equity indices in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand keep the upbeat tone but India’s SENSEX bucks the trend as Information Technology (IT) giant said it received anonymous whistleblower complaints. The US 10-year treasury yields stretch the previous run-up beyond 1.8% by the press time. During early Tuesday, the Chinese representative also crossed wires and see mostly positive. However, the latest news from NIKKEI suggests the dragon nation seeks $2.4 billion sanctions on the US from the World Trade Organization (WTO). Moving on, Canadian election results are gradually coming out with the Prime Minister (PM) Justin Trudeau’s Liberals likely to hold the powers. Though, they might have to compromise on the majority. Elsewhere, Brexit headlines have been a few, not to mention negative, but fail to defy market sentiment supporting the PM’s deal. While Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, Canadian Retail Sales and second-tier data from the US are the only ones to decorate the economic calendar, investors will keep an eye over the trade/Brexit headlines for fresh impulse.

The Greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading without a cler direction around the 97.30 region. US Dollar Index focused on data

DXY navigates around Monday’s close directionless.Yields of the 10-year note surpass 1.80%.Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed gauge next on the docket.The Greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading without a cler direction around the 97.30 region. US Dollar Index focused on data, trade The index remains parked around Monday’s close in the 97.30 area, alternating gains with losses amidst some renewed optimism on the US-China trade front and rising expectations on the Brexit negotiations. The current steady stance in the buck comes along the rebound in yields of the US 10-year reference to levels beyond 1.80% on a move from investors away from safe havens In what it seems an uneventful session, Brexit headlines are expected to dominate the mood in the broader risk-appetite trends as well as developments from the trade sphere. In the US docket, only Existing Home Sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing gauge are due. What to look for around USD The index remains entrenched in the lower bound of the range just above the 97.00 mark albeit rebounding from oversold levels in the daily chart, all amidst rising scepticism on the US-China trade front and a cautious mood in the riskier assets following recent events in the Brexit negotiations. In the meantime, investors’ attention has now shifted to the increasing likeliness of another insurance cut by the Fed at the October meeting amidst some loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly after recent figures from the manufacturing sector, mixed inflation results and some slowdown in consumer spending. On the broader view, the constructive outlook in DXY looks a bit damaged but it still is in play amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks. In addition, the positive view on USD remains well sustained by its safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is losing 0.04% at 97.28 and faces the next support at 97.14 (monthly low Oct.18) seconded by 97.03 (monthly low Aug.9) and then 96.67 (low Jul.18). On the upside, a breakout of 97.38 (200-day SMA) would open the door to 97.79 (100-day SMA) and finally 99.25 (high Oct.9).

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence made a partial recovery last week, rising 0.6% after the prior week’s 1.2% drop, notes the research team

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence made a partial recovery last week, rising 0.6% after the prior week’s 1.2% drop, notes the research team at ANZ. Key Quotes “Current finances dropped 2.4%, however. This component is now down nearly 10% from its August high. Future finances gained 0.4%, taking it back above its long term average.” “Current economic conditions gained 0.3%, while future economic conditions declined by 1.1%. Both the subindices are below their long-term average.” “The ‘Time to buy a household item’ measure gained 5.1%. There have been some big up and down swings in this measure in recent months, but it remains below its long-run average.” “Inflation expectations were stable at 4.1%.”

ING analysts suggest that the path ahead this week is a rocky one and of the five big hurdles this week, the best chance of a GBP rally may come earli

ING analysts suggest that the path ahead this week is a rocky one and of the five big hurdles this week, the best chance of a GBP rally may come earlier in the week – were the government to find support for the second reading of its WAB. Key Quotes “Signs that parliament could finally agree on a Brexit deal would see Boris Johnson go one step further than Theresa May and should be enough to drive EUR/GBP under 0.8500 – i.e. into a new trading range. GBP/$ could see 1.32/34.” “However, the biggest threat GBP faces this week could be the committee stage discussions of the legislation. This may well start on Wednesday and see a variety of amendments introduced. We doubt amendments calling for a second referendum will have the numbers, but the desire to remain in a customs union could prove much closer.” “Were a majority in parliament to back an amendment forcing the government into negotiating customs union access as part of the trade talks, the European Research Group's support for the whole WAB could easily fall away as would the government's fragile coalition for a deal – and GBP could hand back a decent part of recent gains. Given the market is still substantially short GBP, that might only see Cable come back to 1.2700 area – and the softer dollar environment may also limit the size of Cable’s correction here.”

ANZ analysts point out that New Zealand’s housing market has tightened a touch in recent months, although the volume of house sales remains subdued. K

ANZ analysts point out that New Zealand’s housing market has tightened a touch in recent months, although the volume of house sales remains subdued. Key Quotes “House prices rose 2.6% y/y at the national level in September, up from 2.1% in August. Auckland house price inflation is still negative in annual terms, but a little less than previously, contracting 1.7% y/y (versus -2.6% y/y in August). Indeed, Auckland house price inflation in the September month (up 0.9% m/m) was broadly in line with that seen in the rest of the country. But housing market activity remains soft.” “House sales fell 0.6% m/m, but annual growth picked up to 2.7% y/y. That said, nationwide days to sell dropped from 40 days to 37, supported by a tightening in the Auckland market, with listings very low. The boost to national house prices in September may reflect support from lower mortgage rates over the past year, but still-soft activity suggests the upside is capped for now.” “We expect the market to remain subdued, but there is certainly a risk that lower mortgage rates drive a larger-than-expected pick-up.”

With its failure to cross near-term key resistance-confluence, USD/INR remains under pressure while taking rounds to 70.90 during early Tuesday.

USD/INR trades near one-week low amid failure to rise beyond key technical indicators.70.40/36 gains sellers’ attention for now.With its failure to cross near-term key resistance-confluence, USD/INR remains under pressure while taking rounds to 70.90 ahead of the European open on Tuesday. As a result, sellers are targeting 70.40/36 area that comprises of lows marked during August 08 and September 30. However, pair’s further declines might not refrain from visiting 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of July-September upside, at 69.93. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 70.95/71.00 region including 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could challenge 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 71.60 prior to aiming the monthly top surrounding 71.80. USD/INR daily chart Trend: bearish  

Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities, points out that in Canada, the Liberal Party won the most seats in Federal Election, defeatin

Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities, points out that in Canada, the Liberal Party won the most seats in Federal Election, defeating the opposition Conservative party by a healthier margin than expected. Key Quotes “Still, with the Liberals projected to win 156 seats, they will still fall short of the 170 seats needed for a majority.” “PM Trudeau should maintain his position as Prime Minister, but going forward the Liberals will need the co-operation of at least one opposition party to pass legislation. We would be surprised to see a formal coalition, but the Liberals will presumably need to alter some aspects of their platform to accommodate other parties.” “It is too early to know how minority status will impact the conduct of policy, but our (very early) expectation is that we could see a slightly more expansive increase in spending than the Liberals had initially planned.”

Amid overall positive trade headlines, Nikkei came out with the news story that China is seeking $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions against the US.

Amid overall positive trade headlines, Nikkei came out with the news story that China is seeking $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions against the United States (US) for failing to comply with a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling. Key quotes“The WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) will review the case which dates back to the Obama-era on Oct. 28, a document published on Monday showed.”“WTO appeals judges said in July the United States did not fully comply with a trade body ruling about tariffs it put on Chinese solar panels, wind towers, and steel cylinders. They said Beijing could impose retaliatory sanctions if Washington did not remove them.”“Washington has challenged the validity of the WTO ruling and could dispute the $2.4 billion in retaliatory sanctions, sending the matter to arbitration.”FX implications While major market sentiment is looking for the US-China trade deal, the news fails to defy optimists. However, the US reaction to the news and any more developments on this front could spoil the trade positive sentiment, which in turn can drag Antipodeans down.

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume declined to 1.4% in August from previous 1.7%

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj: -1 (October) vs -2

Forex today carries the previous risk-on forward, mainly backed by trade-positive comments from the US and China while Brexit headlines largely ignored.

Trade positive headlines keep Antipodeans firm.GBP/USD stays firm ahead of another key day for Brexit.Early polls indicate Canadian PM Trudeau to form a minority government.Forex today carries the previous risk-on forward, mainly backed by trade-positive comments from the US and China while Brexit headlines, being fewer, failed to disappoint the British Pound (GBP) buyers. The US Dollar (USD) stays on the back foot amid a lack of fresh details on the economic calendar and market’s rush for riskier assets while Canadian Dollar (CAD) seesaws as early polls of the Federal Election shows the present Prime Minister (PM) Justin Trudeau to form a minority government. Dollars of Australia and New Zealand benefit most from the recent trade-positive news wherein the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) takes the lead. The Euro (EUR) looks for further clues before extending the latest upside while the Japanese Yen (JPY), the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Gold have to bear the burden of risk-on. Moving on, Crude prices seem to weigh prospects of increasing supply amid news of hedge funds being increasingly bearish.Main Topics in AsiaRainbow alliance of Remain MPs plot to shoot down Boris Johnson’s deal – The Sun Canada Election: Trudeau posts expected Atlantic losses - Bloomberg China’s Vice ForeignMin: China will not allow other countries to undermine its security China’s Vice Foreign Minister: We have achieved some progress in trade talks with the US Canada's Prime Minister to form minority government - CBC projectionKey Focus AheadWhile the second reading on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) bill in the United Kingdom’s (UK) Parliament will be in the spotlight, trade/political headlines concerning the United States (US) and China could also gain market attention. Further, final results of Canadian election, Canadian Retail Sales and the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Business Outlook Survey will join the US Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and New Zealand trade numbers to decorate the macros. EUR/USD snaps four-day winning streak, but call options continue to gain value Monday's inverted hammer candle indicates EUR/UD's rally has run out of steam. Options market continues to add bullish bets, suggesting a continuation of the rally.  GBP/USD: Market turns indecisive near 1.30 ahead of Second Reading of Brexit bill Monday's spinning top candle indicates the GBP/USD market has turned indecisive. A close below Monday's low of 1.2874 would imply a bearish reversal. The focus today is on the Brexit bill's second reading.  USD/JPY: You could hear a pin drop, but Brexit shenaniguns on the radar USD/JPY solid on th foundations of a “trade deal with China is coming along great”, according to Trump. Brexit noise will pipe again today as the 2nd reading of the Withdrawal Bill will be a focus.

EUR/USD fell 0.18% on Monday, snapping the four-day winning streak. Notably, the pair formed an inverted hammer on Monday, signaling the rally from Oc

Monday's inverted hammer candle indicates EUR/UD's rally has run out of steam. Options market continues to add bullish bets, suggesting a continuation of the rally. EUR/USD fell 0.18% on Monday, snapping the four-day winning streak.  Notably, the pair formed an inverted hammer on Monday, signaling the rally from Oct. 1's low of 1.0879 has run out of steam.  Also, Monday's candlestick pattern has made today's close pivotal. A bearish reversal would be confirmed if the spot ends below Monday's low of 1.1139. Meanwhile, a close above Monday's high of 1.1179 would mean a continuation of the rally.  A bullish close looks likely, according to the options market. One-month risk reversals, a gauge of calls to puts on the common currency, jumped to 0.162 on Monday, the highest level since July 22. The positive number indicates the implied volatility premium for calls (bullish bets) is higher than that for puts (bearish bets).  Put simply, investors added a premium for calls (added bullish bets) despite the pullback in the spot.  Further, the risk revival seen in the stock markets, possibly due to the easing of US-China trade tensions could bode well for the
common currency.  As of writing, EUR/USD is trading largely unchanged on the day at 1.1150.  The pair may suffer a bearish close if the UK's parliament does not agree to the Brexit timetable, possibly leading to a drop in GBP/USD. The 115-page Brexit bill published by the UK government on Monday will get its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday. EUR1MRR Technical levels  

The GBP/USD market has turned indecisive near the crucial psychological resistance of 1.30 amid the lingering Brexit uncertainty. The currency pair ca

Monday's spinning top candle indicates the GBP/USD market has turned indecisive. A close below Monday's low of 1.2874 would imply a bearish reversal. The focus today is on the Brexit bill's second reading. The GBP/USD market has turned indecisive near the crucial psychological resistance of 1.30 amid the lingering Brexit uncertainty.  The currency pair carved out a spinning top candle on Monday, which comprises of long wicks, representing two-way business
and a small body.  That candle is considered a sign of indecision in the marketplace. In this case, however, the candle has appeared following anear 90-degree rally from 1.22 and represents bullish exhaustion.  Hence, today's close is pivotal. A bearish reversal would be confirmed if the pair finds acceptance below Monday's low of
1.2874. On the other hand, a close above Monday's high of 1.3012 would imply a continuation of the recent rally.  Focus on the second reading of Brexit bill The 115-page Brexit bill published by the UK government on Monday will get its second reading in the House of Commons on Tuesday. MPs will debate and vote on the bill, which the government must win to proceed to the next stage of legislation. This vote is expected at 1800 GMT, according to Reuters News.  The government believes it has a majority to pass this stage even though the opposition Labour Party and other rival parties are expected to oppose it. The government then has to layout the timetable for the remaining stages of the legislation, which needs approval from lawmakers.  If parliament does not agree to the timetable, Prime Minister Johnson's plans to leave on Oct. 31 could be derailed. That could yield a bearish daily close in GBP/USD.  Apart from Brexit-related news, the GBP/USD pair may also take cues from UK's Public Sector Net Borrowing (Sep) scheduled for release at 08:30 GMT and CBI Industrial Trends Survey – orders due for release at 10:00 GMT.  Technical levels  

With its U-turn from near-term key support confluence, USD/JPY flashes 108.65 as a quote during early Tuesday.

USD/JPY takes the bids towards monthly high.Highs marked during September month and October 01 add strength to the support confluence.With its U-turn from near-term key support confluence, USD/JPY flashes 108.65 as a quote during early Tuesday. Prices are likely to challenge monthly high surrounding 109.00 in order to challenge August month's top near 109.30. On the downside, 50-hour simple moving average on the four-hour chart (4H 50MA), two-week-old rising trend-line, and highs marked during September month and October 01  around 108.50/45 become the key to watch. Should there be increased selling pressure below 108.45, 108.00 and 107.50 could entertain bears ahead of challenging them with 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of September-October declines, at 106.95. It’s worth pointing out that the pair’s extended weakness past-106.95 could eye 106.50 and September month low close to 105.70. USD/JPY 4-hour chart Trend: bullish  

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals will form a minority government, according to CBC News' latest projection. The Liberals will be able

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals will form a minority government, according to CBC News' latest projection.  The Liberals will be able to get to the 170 seats needed only with the help of the anti-pipeline New Democratic Party (NDP), according to former Vancouver chief planner Brent Toderian.  So far, the news has failed to move the needle on the USD/CAD pair, which is currently trading at 1.3080.

The USD/CAD pair is recovering losses on reports stating that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is likely to win the second term. The currency pair is c

USD/CAD is trimming gains on reports calling a victory for Canada's PM Trudeau. The CAD may come under pressure if Trudeau forms a minority government with NDP's support. The USD/CAD pair is recovering losses on reports stating that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau is likely to win the second term. The currency pair is currently trading at 1.3085, representing marginal losses on the day, having hit a three-month low of 1.3071 earlier today. Canadian TV, CBC, is suggesting Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to secure a second term, although it is unclear whether he will be able to command an outright majority or will have to rely on other parties to govern. A minority government supported by the anti-pipeline New Democratic Party (NDP) would be bad news for Canada's energy sector. The Canadian Dollar, therefore, may come under pressure if Trudeau ends up forming a minority government with NDP's support. That said, historically Federal elections have not had a significant impact on the underlying trend in the CAD, according to Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne. So, gains in the USD/CAD, if any, could be short-lived, as the currency pair is on a strong downward trajectory, according to technical charts. Technical levels  

With the Aussie buyers struggling to hold upside momentum around a monthly high, AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.6865 amid early Tuesday.

AUD/USD slips from five-week high amid mixed comments from the US and China.100-day EMA acts as immediate key support.0.6895/6900 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement holds the gate for further upside to 200-day EMA.With the Aussie buyers struggling to hold upside momentum around a monthly high, AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.6865 amid early Monday. Despite recent pullbacks, overall sentiment remains bullish and hence even short-term sellers await entry only if the pair drops below 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6853. In doing so, bears could target 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of July-October downside, at 0.6827, whereas 0.6800 will become preferable for short positions then after. Meanwhile, an area including highs marked since July-end around 0.6895/6900 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6925 seems nearby crucial resistances to watch during the pair’s further upside. Should bulls manage to conquer 0.6925, a 200-day EMA level of 0.6953 and July 17 low close to 0.7000 will be in the spotlight. AUD/USD daily chart Trend: pullback expected  

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal party is expected to form a minority government, according to CBC news. So far, the news has not had

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal party is expected to form a minority government, according to CBC news.  So far, the news has not had any impact on the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair continues to trade at session lows near 1.3080.  

AUD/JPY printed a 2.5-month high soon before press time, possibly due to easing of US-China trade tensions and the resulting rally in the stock market

AUD/JPY hit 2.5-month highs above 74.80 on trade optimism. The pair has witnessed a slight pullback in the last few minutes despite the uptick in the Asian stocks. AUD/JPY printed a 2.5-month high soon before press time, possibly due to easing of US-China trade tensions and the resulting rally in the stock markets.  The currency pair rose to 74.83 – the highest level since Aug. 1 – having gained 0.36% on Monday.  US President Donald Trump on Monday said efforts to end a trade tiff with China are progressing well and negotiators from the two nations are working to nail down a Phase 1 trade deal, which could be signed by President Trump and President Xi at November's APEC summit. Trump's comments boded well for commodity dollars like the AUD, NZD, and CAD.  Also, the optimism on the trade front strengthened the bid tone around the stocks, keeping the anti-risk Yen under pressure. For instance, the S&P 500 closed above 3,000 on Monday.  As of writing, the AUD/JPY pair is trading at 74.64, representing little change on the day.  The pair has pulled back from session highs despite the risk-on in the Asian equities and the upbeat Aussie data.  At press time, major Asian indices like the S&P/ASX 200 and the Kospi are flashing green and the futures on the S&P 500 are reporting a 0.16% gain.  Meanwhile, Australia’s (AU) ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence rose to 111.60 from 110.90 earlier readouts.  The global data docket is thin during the day ahead. The pair, therefore, remains at the mercy of the broader market sentiment.  Technical levels  

In addition to the previous comments, China’s Vice Foreign Minister followed the footsteps of the United States (US) President while spreading trade optimism.

In addition to the previous comments, China’s Vice Foreign Minister  Le Yucheng followed the footsteps of the United States (US) President Donald Trump who earlier spread optimism surrounding the US-China trade deal. The Chinese diplomat speaks from the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing. Key quotes “We have achieved some progress in trade talks with the US.” “Hopeful an agreement will be reached.” “We should be partners with the US for cooperation.” “As long as we respect each other no problems that cannot be resolved by China and US” “Pressure on China doesn’t work.” “China not looking to replace anyone.” FX implications In a stark difference from his earlier comments, the latest statements add to the current US-China trade optimism and could support further upsides of the Dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

China’s Vice Foreign Minister recently crossed wires while portraying a rosy picture of the Chinese economy and the nation’s readiness to be strict.

China’s Vice Foreign Minister recently crossed wires while portraying a rosy picture of the Chinese economy and the nation’s readiness to safeguard national security. Key quotes“China will not allow other countries to undermine its security.”“Will continue to resolutely safeguard national security and core interests.”“The Chinese economy is a source of confidence for the international community.”“The world needs openness and not decoupling or a new cold war.”China does not put its interests above others.”“China will create a better business environment.”FX implications Although the news fails to provide any immediate market impact, the same could be read in conjunction with the United States’ (US) intervention in Hong Kong issue and might tame recent market optimism towards the US-China trade deal.

With its sustained trading beyond 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), NZD/USD rises to the five-week high while taking the bids to 0.6430.

NZD/USD trades near the strongest levels since September 12.September month high, 100-day EMA question pair’s further rise.50-day EMA acts as nearby support.With its sustained trading beyond 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), NZD/USD rises to the five-week high while taking the bids to 0.6430 amid initial Tuesday trading. While the bullish signal from the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) firms up odds for further upside, 100-day EMA and September high around 0.6450/55 could question the pair’s additional run-up. Should prices rally beyond 0.6455, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of July-October declines, close to 0.6500 and 0.6570, will become bulls’ favorites. Alternatively, pair’s daily closing below 50-day EMA level of 0.6370 can recall early-month tops near 0.6355/50 and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6340. In a case where bears keep the momentum controlled below 0.6340, 0.6270, 0.6240 and 0.6200 could lure them. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: bullish  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0668 versus Monday's fix at 7.0680. The markets were expecting the PBOC to anno

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0668 versus Monday's fix at 7.0680. The markets were expecting the PBOC to announce the daily fix at 7.0708.  

Canada’s federal election results have started to trickle in - However, we will not get the full picture until much later in the shift, circa 0200GMT

Canada’s federal election results have started to trickle in - However, we will not get the full picture until much later in the shift, circa 0200GMT when the polls close in the westernmost parts of the nation.  PM Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are in a tight race against Andrew Scheer’s Conservative Party. The polls had been predicting that Trudeau and the Liberals would retain power but will lose their parliamentary majority.  It looks like Health Minister Ginette Petitpas Taylor has kept her seat in Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe. What's interesting, however, is that her Green rival is not far behind her, a trend that's being seen across several ridings so far. NDP have won their first seat in Atlantic Canada. According to these early polls Jagmeet Singh's party have taken their first riding, St John's East. This is a seat the party did not expect to lose to Liberals in 2015, and was part of Trudeau's red wave. British Columbia - a key region in this election - is the last region to close voting, expected to happen at about 10pm EST. FX implications:  "The prospect of an alliance between Trudeau’s Liberals and left-leaning parties could weigh on the Canadian dollar," analysts at Westpac argued.   

The news is crossing the wires via Bloomberg that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party is on track to lose roughly half a doz

The news is crossing the wires via Bloomberg that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party is on track to lose roughly half a dozen seats in Atlantic Canada, as expected.    The Liberals have won in 24 of 32 districts, according to preliminary results from Elections Canada and the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. The Conservatives are ahead in six districts while the New Democrats are leading in one.  Canada could be facing a minority government, as no party looks poised to win 170 districts required for a majority, as per recent polls. The winner, therefore, will likely require the support of other parties to pass laws. As the incumbent, Trudeau has the right to continue to govern and test parliament for support, even if he wins fewer districts than Scheer, according to a Bloomberg report.  The USD/CAD pair is currently trading at three-month lows below1.3080. A liberal government supported by the anti-pipeline New Democratic Party could be bad news for Canada's energy sector.  That said, historical data indicates the election results do not have a big impact on the underlying trend in the CAD.   

Bulls testing the 21-DMA, firmer by 0.28% in Asia. Bears have their sights on a break below the 50 handle. The price of WTI is firmer in Asia, higher

 Bulls testing the 21-DMA, firmer by 0.28% in Asia. Bears have their sights on a break below the 50 handle. The price of WTI is firmer in Asia, higher by 0.28% having risen from the $51 handle at the start of the month, failing to follow through the 55 figure mid-month and morphing into a wedge contained between familiar ranges. However,  the outlook remains bearish while below the 200-day moving average and keeping the bearish GMMAs on the daily chart. The price is now testing the 21-day moving average but bears will seek a break below the 50 handle at this juncture, which will bring the prospects of a run down to the Nov 2018 lows at 49.39 again. The 46.90 level ahead of the 18th Dec lows down at 45.77 will then be in focus. On the flip side, a break of the 50% mean reversion of the March to August range opens risk to the 64 handle.  WTI daily chart      

Although the US and China are gearing up for a successful trade deal, USD/CNH stays below near-term key resistance line (previous support).

USD/CNH fails to recover amid on-going doubts over the Chinese fundamentals, PBOC easing.Traders seem to have ignored trade-positive headlines.Although the US and China are gearing up for a successful trade deal, USD/CNH stays below near-term key resistance line (previous support) while taking rounds to 7.0683 during early Tuesday. Not only the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s comments that the trade deal with China “coming along great,” but the White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow’s statement inflating odds of no December month hike to levies on Chinese goods also favored trade sentiment off-late. Investors might have been worries about the mixed messages from the Chinese economic calendar, the latest being growth and industrial production numbers, coupled with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) sustained emphasis on the easy money policy. It should also be noted that further developments on the US-China trade front are hinged on the Chile APEC summit, scheduled for November where present geopolitical tensions raise doubts over the next month’s key meeting. While no major data from either the US or China is up for publishing investors could continue searching for directions from the trade headlines. Technical Analysis Unless rising back beyond the 10-week-old ascending trend line, at 7.0768, prices keep being favorite to bears.  

Despite recovering from the monthly bottom, USD/IDR has many upside barriers to clear before restoring bull’s confidence.

USD/IDR seesaws around the four-week low.38.2% Fibonacci retracement acts as immediate resistance with 14,030 being nearby support.Despite recovering from the monthly bottom, USD/IDR has many upside barriers to clear before restoring bull’s confidence. The quote is on the bids to 14,080 amid Tuesday morning in Asia. Among the many resistances, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of April-June declines, around 14,120 acts as an immediate upside barrier. However, a confluence of 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward sloping trend line since August, around 14,200/10 will be the key to watch as a break of which can trigger pair’s run-up towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 14,350. On the contrary, multiple lows during mid-September offer immediate support around 14,030 ahead of dragging the quote to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 13,975. During the pair’s further declines below 13,975, an ascending trend line since June, at 13,940, should be watched carefully. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: bearish  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to announce the daily YUAN (CNY) fix at 7.0708, having set the reference rate at 7.0680 on Monday. The USD

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to announce the daily YUAN (CNY) fix at 7.0708, having set the reference rate at 7.0680 on Monday.  The USD/CNY pair closed at 7.0740 on Monda. Meanwhile, the offshore exchange rate, as represented by the USD/CNH pair, is currently trading at 7.0693. 

USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3078, the lowest level since July 22, representing a 0.20% loss on the day. The pair closed well below 1.3134 (Sept.

USD/CAD is looking south, having breached key support on Monday. Canadian election results may have little or no impact on underlying trending in the CAD.USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.3078, the lowest level since July 22, representing a 0.20% loss on the day.  The pair closed well below 1.3134 (Sept. 10 low) on Monday, bolstering the bearish setup, as represented by the lower highs, lower lows created since Oct. 10, a below-50 reading on the relative strength index and the downward sloping 5- and 10-day moving averages.  As a result, a deeper drop to 1.3050 could be in the offing.  Canadian elections a non-event? Prime Minister Trudeau's Liberals and the main opposition Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer are in a neck-and-neck race, according to opinion polls and observers believe markets are underpricing the possibility of a minority government.  That said, historically Federal elections do not appear to have had a significant impact on the underlying trend in the CAD, according to Scotiabank's Shaun Osborne.  The CAD, therefore, may continue to gain ground, as suggested by technical charts, especially with the easing of US-China trade tensions.  The bearish technical outlook would be invalidated if the USD/CAD pair posts a convincing daily close above 1.3134.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

USD/JPY is flat in what would be otherwise the Tokyo open, but today is a holiday in Japan and liquidity is thin out there. Spot trades at 108.61 in a

USD/JPY solid on th foundations of a “trade deal with China is coming along great”, according to Trump.Brexit noise will pipe again today as the 2nd reading of the Withdrawal Bill will be a focus. USD/JPY is flat in what would be otherwise the Tokyo open, but today is a holiday in Japan and liquidity is thin out there. Spot trades at 108.61 in a tight 9-pip range between 108.54 and 108.63.  Overnight, it was a positive mood on Wall Street, yet, despite that the pair only added 15 pips and prints 3 pips higher in Asia. The focus stayed with Brexit and trade relations between the US and China. Overnight, US President Trump stated that the “trade deal with China is coming along great” and that he foresees a dal being signed in November at the APEC Conference in Chile should it not be cancelled due to the current protests.  As for Brexit, with just 10 days left until the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU on Oct. 31, speaker John Bercow said a vote should not be allowed on Monday as the same issue had been discussed on Saturday when opponents turned Johnson’s big Brexit day into a humiliation. However, as for this week's UK Parliamentary proceedings, UK House of Commons leader Rees-Mogg announced that the Withdrawal Agreement will be published shortly and that the house will have 2nd reading of the Withdrawal Bill tonight - It may not lead to much today, but its brewing and risk sentiment is volatile, which keeps the Yen in play.   US stocks gain on trade deal optimism As a result, stocks maintained their positive momentum on Wall Street, and the Industrial Average, DJIA, added 57.44 points, or 0.2%, to close at 26,827.64 on the day while the S&P 500 index added 20.52 points, or 0.7%, to finish around 3,006.72 and within inches of its closing high of 3,025.86 set on July 26.  However, the US 2-year Treasury yields slipped from 1.59% to 1.57%, while the 10-year yield stuck sideways between 1.73% and 1.77%. "Markets were pricing 22 basis points of easing at the 31st October meeting and a terminal rate of 1.21% (vs 1.88% currently)," analysts at Westpac explained.  USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief analysts at FXStreet explained that in the 4-hour chart, it "shows that it remained capped by a directionless 20 SMA, while technical indicators remain flat around their midlines, reflecting the ongoing wait-and-see stance. The bullish case remains alive, with buyers targeting 109.31, August monthly high."  

GBP/USD bulls ignore recently Brexit-negative headlines from The Sun as the Cable clings to the multi-month top while taking the bids to 1.2973.

GBP/USD clings to 1.2970 in a search for fresh clues.The Sun’s report of further hardships for the UK PM seems to have been ignored.The UK Parliament proceedings will be closely observed for the second reading of the WA bill.GBP/USD bulls ignore recently Brexit-negative headlines from The Sun as the Cable clings to the multi-month top while taking the bids to 1.2973 during early Tuesday. The Cable buyers have previously ignored the United Kingdom’s (UK) House Speaker John Bercow’s rejection of holding Meaningful Votes on the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Recently, The Sun came out with news citing a rainbow of the Members of the Parliaments (MPs) standing ready to challenge the UK PM’s plan whenever it will be up for voting during the week. The second reading of the plan will be discussed during Tuesday wherein the news suggests the opponents add conditions like the UK will remain in the European Union’s (EU) customs union and/or second referendum on the deal before it reaches the bloc for a sign. The reason for the underlying strength could be fewer odds supporting the UK’s existence in the EU’s customs union and a few others for the second referendum. Also, leaders at the EU have already favored the UK PM Johnson and hence some at the London shifted their seats to better adjust the flow. The economic calendar has nothing major from either the UK or the United States (US), except for the September month Public Sector Net Borrowing and October month CBI Industrial Trends Survey Orders from the UK and the US September month Existing Home Sales and October reading for Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. With this, investors will keep a close tab on the UK’s Parliamentary proceedings while also taking note of the US-China trade headlines for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis FXStreet Analyst Flavio Tosti spots the pair’s trading above key Simple Moving Averages (SMA) portraying the momentum strength: “The Cable is trading in a bull channel above its main SMAs. A break above 1.3025 resistance can drive the market towards 1.3085 and 1.3140 resistances, support is seen at 1.2950/33 zone and the 1.2906 price level according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.”

With the 6-month downtrend at 118.77 in the rearview mirror, EUR/JPY had accomplished the 120 handle and now the 121 handle, testing the 121.50 highs

EUR/JPY making a series of higher lows with eyes on the 200-DMA.Pullbacks likely to hold 119.40/118.80.With the 6-month downtrend at 118.77 in the rearview mirror, EUR/JPY had accomplished the  120 handle and now the 121 handle, testing the 121.50 highs having broken beyond the July highs. The cross is basing in the 120s at this juncture and has not looked back for nine consecutive days of higher closing lows.  The next stop for the bulls will be the 200-day moving average of 122.20. "We note the 13 count on the 240-minute chart, but pullbacks are indicated as likely to hold 119.40/118.80. Dips lower will find support at the 55-day ma at 118.32/28 ahead of the 117.49 uptrend," analysts at Commerzbank argued.  EUR/JPY daily chart  

Gold’s repeated failures to cross 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) fails to portray the yellow metal’s weakness as the monthly trend line limits downside.

Gold struggles between short-term key technical indicators.Bearish MACD favors the Bullion’s downside, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement adds to the rest-points.Upside clearance of 200-bar SMA highlights 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to buyers.Gold’s repeated failures to cross 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) fails to portray the yellow metal’s weakness as the monthly trend line limits its downside. The Bullion presently tests the support line while flashing $1,483.55 as a quote amid Tuesday’s Asian session. Adding to the odds favoring downside is the bearish signal from the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator. However, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of September-October declines, at $1,479 could question the price drop, a break of which highlights the importance of $1,475/74 area including early-month lows. In a case bears dominate below $1,474, the monthly bottom near to $1,455 will be on their radars. Alternatively, upside break of 200-bar SMA, at $1,499 now, will trigger fresh run-up to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,518 whereas late-September high around $1,535 could lure bulls afterward. Gold 4-hour chart Trend: sideways  

Although weekly consumer confidence data flashed positive signs for the AUD/USD pair, the Aussie fails to extend the latest upside while stepping back.

AUD/USD pulls back from five-week high despite upbeat ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence.Traders await fresh clues to extend the previous risk-on amid an absence of major data/events on the economic calendar.News will keep the bright spot amid a light economic calendar through the US session.Although weekly consumer confidence data flashed positive signs for the AUD/USD pair, the Aussie fails to extend the latest upside while stepping back to 0.6865 by the press time of initial Asian morning on Tuesday. In its latest reading for the week ended on 19-20 October, Australia’s (AU) ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence rose to 111.60 from 110.90 earlier readouts. Even so, the Aussie buyers move further away from the quote while waiting for firm trade/Brexit clues. Prices earlier rose as increasing odds of the US-China trade deal and signals that the United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson will get pass through the Parliaments boosted investor confidence. Also supporting the move was the overall weakness in the US Dollar (USD). While there has been an absence of trade headlines off-late, The Sun came out with the news that a rainbow of UK policymakers is preparing to turn down the PM Johnson’s Brexit deal. Given the lack of a major data/event up for publishing during the Asian session, investors will keep searching for headlines that could affect the market’s risk-tone. However, the United States (US) economic calendar has some second-tier housing and manufacturing numbers to entertain short-term traders. “The market expects the Richmond manufacturing index to improve marginally in October to -7 following the sharp 10pt decline to -9 in September (10am ET). This would largely mimic the improvement in the NY Empire survey, but stand in contrast with the decline in the Philly Fed index. Separately, the consensus is looking for a modest -0.7% m/m retreat in existing home sales for September, following the nice 1.3% jump in the month before. All in, existing home sales are tracking a notable recovery so far in 2019,” says TD Securities. Technical Analysis September month high close to 0.6900 becomes an immediate key resistance for the buyers to watch as it holds the gate to pair’s further rise towards early-July low near 0.6910 and 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6952. On the downside, pair’s declines below 100-day EMA level of 0.6852 can recall sellers targeting 0.6810 and 0.6770 rest-points.

AUD/NZD has dropped from a high of 1.0793 and has scored a recent low of 1.0712 in today's early Asian trade. The Kiwi has been a top-performer over a

Risk-on supported Kiwi to poll position overnight. Bears below 200 4-hour moving and 21-day moving average. AUD/NZD has dropped from a high of 1.0793 and has scored a recent low of 1.0712 in today's early Asian trade. The Kiwi has been a top-performer over a 1-day and 4-hour period, stalling its upside on the board at this juncture, however. There are not a whole lot of fundamental drivers going for the Kiwi on a domestic basis that should see a sustainable bid, but it has garnered strength from trade-deal traction and a general risk-on tone.  The US administration and top trade officials, including Trump, continued with their upbeat rhetoric surrounding trade talk progress with China and aim to sign into a contract in November, making way and allowing for negotiations for a phase-2 deal to take place. Central bank outlook Meanwhile, from a central bank perspective, considering the lack of domestic scheduled data in the calendar for the week, according to analysts at Westpac, markets are now pricing just 4 basis points (bp) of easing at the 5th November Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, and a terminal rate of 0.48% (RBA cash rate currently at 0.75%). As for the RBNZ, the analysts note that the market is pricing for Reserve Bank of New Zealand is for 24bp of easing on 13 November, with a terminal rate of 0.57%. AUD/NZD levels The price of the cross has broken below the 200 4-hour moving average following lower highs and mounting pressures with momentum kicking in. The 21-day moving average has also given in and should the price hold below there, bears will be looking for a move to the 1.0630s and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement located around 1.0620.

With its another failure to overcome late-May high, GBP/JPY takes the rounds to 140.80 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

GBP/JPY struggles to extend rise beyond the five-month high.Overbought RSI conditions doubt bulls relying on the break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.200-day SMA grabs market attention during fresh declines.With its another failure to overcome late-May high, GBP/JPY takes the rounds to 140.80 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Ever since the quote rose beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-August declines, bulls keep firming the odds of clearing May 21 high near 141.75. However, a lower high formation since then, coupled with overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) signal brighter chances of the pair’s pullback. In doing so, sellers will wait for a clear break below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 140.34 in order to aim for a 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 138.75. Though, 50% Fibonacci retracement surrounding 137.70 could question the pair’s further downside. Meanwhile, pair’s rise past-141.75 sets the tone for the further run-up to 142.20 and April month low close to 143.77. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: pullback expected  

Early Asian morning on Tuesday, The Sun came out with the news that could increase hardships for the UK PM Johnson.

Early Asian morning on Tuesday, The Sun came out with the news that could increase hardships for the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson. The story mentions that a rainbow of Senior Lib Dem, SNP and even DUP Members of the Parliaments (MPs) were in frantic talks with the opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn to sabotage the bill when it will be up for votes during this week. The second reading on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) bill will be presented to the House on Tuesday. Key quotes“A senior Downing Street source familiar with the latest numbers tally told The Sun that voting on it Tuesday and Wednesday will be “very tight”.”“The opposition alliance are planning to strike in four key areas.”“DURING an initial vote today on the bill’s programme motion — which sets the timetable for it. Forcing the debate to last longer than three days risks Brexit having to be delayed again by a few weeks.”“AMENDING the bill to force Britain into a customs union with the EU after Brexit. This was being seen by No10 as a wrecking motion, as it would see the PM pull the whole bill rather than agreeing to no new trade deals — resulting in a new delay.”“ATTACHING a second referendum on to the PM’s deal to allow voters to approve it first.”“MAKING it illegal for the Government to leave the transition period on World Trade Organisation terms with a free trade agreement with the EU in place.”FX implications While no major reaction to the news could be witnessed, challenges increase for the British Pound’s (GBP) latest run-up.

A holiday at Japan joins an absence of major data/events on the economic calendar to question the AUD/JPY pair’s rise to an 11-week high.

AUD/JPY clings to August-start high.Broader risk-on, trade-positive headlines favored the pair previously.Trade/Brexit will be in the spotlight amid Japan’s holiday, no major data/event from Australia.A holiday at Japan joins an absence of major data/events on the economic calendar to question the AUD/JPY pair’s rise to an 11-week high. The quote seesaws near 74.60 by the press time of early Tuesday morning in Asia. Bulls cheered upbeat market sentiment over the US-China trade deal while shrugging off the United Kingdom’s (UK) House Speaker John Bercow’s rejection of the Meaningful Vote on the Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal. Adding to the rise could be the overall strength of the commodity-linked currencies backed by the US Dollar (USD) weakness. Odds of the US-China trade deal were earlier hiked by the United States (US) President while the White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow’s comments added fuel to the risk-on. Elsewhere, some of the UK’s Members of the Parliaments (MPs) readies to support the PM’s Brexit deal and there prevails a second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) bill, which in turn dims negatives out of Speaker Bercow’s rejection. Against the move was the US President Trump’s statement increasing the chances of a Senate trial on his impeachment by the Democrats. With this, Wall Street pleased buyers while the US 10-year Treasury yields also rose past-1.8%. Moving on, Japanese markets are off as Emperor Naruhito will proclaim his enthronement. Further, no major Aussie data is up for publishing and hence the trade/Brexit news will keep dominating market sentiment. Technical Analysis An area comprising early-July lows close to 75.10/20 seems to be the immediate upside barrier for the pair ahead of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 75.64. On the downside, September high of 74.50 challenges sellers targeting 100-day EMA level of 74.00.

With the lack of fresh catalysts, the NZD/USD pair searches for clues to extend the previous run-up while staying close to 0.6400 at the start of Tuesday.

NZD/USD seesaws near the five-week high.Trade optimism, weaker USD helps the Kiwi to remain strong.A light economic calendar keeps the market focus on trade headlines.With the lack of fresh catalysts, the NZD/USD pair searches for clues to extend the previous run-up while staying close to 0.6400 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. The Kiwi pair recently benefited from the US-China trade optimism after the US President Donald Trump inflated odds of a deal with China when leaders of both the economies meet at the Chile APEC summit, up for November. The upbeat sentiment was also buoyed by comments from the White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow that if phase one of China talks goes well, December tariffs could be taken off. In addition to the trade-optimism, the pair buyers also cheered the US Dollar (USD) weakness amid a lack of major data/event and an absence of Fedspeak. As a result, doubts surrounding the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s impeachment echoed after his comments favoring the same in the Parliament. Given the lack of major data/events, markets will keep an eye over the trade headlines while the US Existing Home Sales for September and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October could entertain investors during the later part of the day. Technical Analysis Pair’s successful trading beyond 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) helps it rise towards the key 0.6450/55 area comprising September tops and 100-day EMA. However, a downside break of 50-day EMA, around 0.6370 now, can recall sellers targeting 0.6330 and 0.6300.

AUD/USD is trading above its main SMAs on the 30-minute chart, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. Support is seen at the 0.6850, 0.6835 and 0

The Aussie is nearing the September highs this Monday. The level to beat for bulls is the 0.6872 level.   AUD/USD daily chart    The Aussie is trading in a downtrend below its 200-day simple moving averages (DSMAs) on the daily chart. However, in October, the market has been bouncing sharply and surpassed the 100 SMA at 0.6858.      AUD/USD 4-hour chart   The market is trading above the main SMAs, suggesting a bullish momentum in the medium term. The level to beat for bulls is the 0.6872 resistance. A break above the level is necessary for the market to trade towards 0.6895, near September highs. In case the market takes out the September highs, the next level to watch become the 0.6950 resistance, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    AUD/USD 30-minute chart AUD/USD is trading above its main SMAs on the 30-minute chart, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. Support is seen at the 0.6850, 0.6835 and 0.6807 price levels.   Additional key levels  

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) meets forecasts (-0.7%) in September

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in September

Scroll Top