CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex نیوز ٹائم لائن

پير، 21 جون، 2021

USD/RUB has formed an interim low at 71.55 and is seen rising back towards the 74.30/72.13 area, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commer

USD/RUB has formed an interim low at 71.55 and is seen rising back towards the 74.30/72.13 area, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Current June low sits at 71.55 “USD/RUB dipped to below the August 2015 high at 71.64 and made its current June low at 71.55 before heading back up towards the current June high at 73.75. Once bettered, the April low and 55-day moving average at 74.20/30 will be in focus and also the mid-May high at 74.74 as well as the 200-day moving average at 75.13. Further up sits the 75.86 early May high. Still, further resistance can be found between the mid-December and January as well as February highs at 76.06/49.”  “Below the recent low at 71.55 lies the September 2018 high at 70.64.”  “In view of last week’s advance, we decided to neutralize our medium-term forecast.”  

USD/TRY has made a new all-time high and targets the minor psychological 9.00 mark, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, report

USD/TRY has made a new all-time high and targets the minor psychological 9.00 mark, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Good support sits at 8.5300/4605, March and early May highs  “USD/TRY’s swift reversal from its current June low at 8.2735 has taken it to a new all-time high at 8.7884 (according to CQG data) with the psychological 9.0000 mark and a daily 0.1 x 3 vertical Point & Figure target at 9.1000 being in the spotlight.”  “Good support can now be seen at the March and early May highs at 8.5300/4605. Further down lie the 55-day moving average and the four month support line at 8.3817/3719 as well as the current June low at 8.2735.”  “Support below the next lower 8.2056 May low is seen at the 8.1300 late April low and also at the late November and December highs and April low at 8.0530/7.9775. Further down lies the March 8 high at 7.7881. Below it the March 17 high and March 23 low can be spotted at 7.6923/7.6413.”  

The NZD/USD pair lost nearly 200 pips last week and closed the third straight week in the negative territory. In the absence of significant fundamenta

NZD/USD is pushing higher following a four-day losing streak.US Dollar Index retreats toward 92.00 after last week's rally.Wall Street's main indexes look to open higher on Monday.The NZD/USD pair lost nearly 200 pips last week and closed the third straight week in the negative territory. In the absence of significant fundamental drivers on Monday, the pair seems to be staging a correction and was last seen gaining 0.45% on the day at 0.6965.   DXY rally loses steam on Monday The unabated USD strength following the hawkish tilt in the FOMC's monetary policy outlook weighed heavily on NZD/USD in the second half of the previous week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD's performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose 2% and registered its largest weekly percentage gain since the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak. There won't be any high-tier macroeconomic data releases from the US in the remainder of the day and the pair seems poised to extend its rebound. Meanwhile, S&P Futures and Nasdaq Futures both gain around 0.5% ahead of Wall Street's opening bell, suggesting that the risk-positive market environment could make it difficult for the USD to regather its strength during the American session. On Tuesday, the Westpac Consumer Survey for the second quarter from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh impetus during the Asian trading hours. Technical levels to watch for  

The strong upside in DXY shows some signs of exhaustion after being rejected once again from the 92.40/50 band earlier on Monday. The improved sentime

DXY sheds some ground following a failed move to 92.40/50.Next on the upside comes in a Fibo level near 92.50.The strong upside in DXY shows some signs of exhaustion after being rejected once again from the 92.40/50 band earlier on Monday. The improved sentiment in the dollar could now push the index to the next minor target at a Fibo level near 92.50. Further north, there are no relevant hurdles until the 2021 highs in the mid-93.00s recorded on March 31. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, a sustainable breakout of the 200-day SMA, today at 91.51, should shift the outlook for the buck to positive. DXY daily chart  

Following a drop to new 2-month lows in the 130.00 neighbourhood, EUR/JPY manages to regain some upside traction and looks to retake the 131.00 mark.

EUR/JPY rebounds from earlier lows in the 130.00 zone.The 50-day SMA around 132.00 emerges as the next hurdle.Following a drop to new 2-month lows in the 130.00 neighbourhood, EUR/JPY manages to regain some upside traction and looks to retake the 131.00 mark. Further recovery is likely on the back of the oversold condition of the cross. That said, there is not much in terms of resistance levels until the 50-day SMA just above 132.00 the figure. This area coincides with the short-term resistance line. Above this region, the selling pressure is seen losing some traction. In the broader picture, while above the 200-day SMA at 127.61 the broader outlook for the cross should remain constructive. EUR/JPY daily chart  

The AUD/USD pair held on to its modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading daily tops, around the

AUD/USD staged a solid bounce from two-month lows and snapped four days of the losing streak.Sliding US bond yields, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment prompted some USD profit-taking.The Fed’s hawkish shift should limit the USD slide and keep a lid on any further gains for the major.The AUD/USD pair held on to its modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and was last seen trading daily tops, around the 0.7510-15 region. The pair gained some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and has now recovered a part of the previous session's heavy losses to the lowest level since December 2020. The uptick allowed the AUD/USD pair to snap four consecutive days of the losing streak and was sponsored by a modest US dollar pullback. As investors digested a sudden hawkish turn by the Fed, a softer tone around the US Treasury bond yields prompted some profit-taking around the USD. Apart from this, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment further undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven status and extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie. Despite the supporting factors, any meaningful recovery seems elusive in the wake of the Fed's signal that it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than anticipated previously. It is worth recalling that the Fed last week stunned investors and brought forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. This should continue to act as a tailwind for the buck and cap gains for the AUD/USD pair. The negative outlook is reinforced by Friday's decisive break below the very important 200-day SMA for the first time since June 2020. Hence, any subsequent positive move might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bearish positions. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US, leaving the AUD/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might further contribute to provide some short-term trading impetus on the first day of a new week. Technical levels to watch  

Silver price (XAG/USD) has quickly pulled back from fresh two-month lows of $25.55, now extending the break above the $26 mark. The bulls appear to ex

Silver battles $26 mark on the road to recovery. XAG/USD poised for deeper losses on a drop below $25.55. RSI recovers but still remains in the bearish zone. sSilver price (XAG/USD) has quickly pulled back from fresh two-month lows of $25.55, now extending the break above the $26 mark. The bulls appear to extend the recovery momentum, backed by the renewed uptick in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart. The leading indicator has recovered from the oversold territory to currently trade at 35.35, offering some respite to the silver bulls. The next relevant target for the buyers is seen at $26.50, the June 18 highs, which coincided with the downward-sloping 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) on said time frame. However, if the downside bias resumes, a retest of the two-month lows will be well on the cards. Further south, the $25 round figure will be on the sellers’ radars. Silver Price Chart: Four-hour chart Silver Additional levels  

NZD/USD maintains its break below the 200-day average at 0.7042. The kiwi is now oscillating around 0.6945 – below which would mark an important chang

NZD/USD maintains its break below the 200-day average at 0.7042. The kiwi is now oscillating around 0.6945 – below which would mark an important change of trend, economists at Credit Suisse report. Resistance is s seen at 0.7035/42 “The break below the 200-day average at 0.7042 raises the prospect of a broader trend change, with the market now oscillating around its prior year-to-date lows at 0.6945. The ‘measured top objective’ projects a move beyond here towards 0.6913. Along with the break of the 200-day average, a weekly close below 0.6945 would mark a major medium term breakdown, opening up 0.6875/61 next and eventually beyond.”  “Near term resistance moves to 0.7000/01. Thereafter, the market should now ideally remain capped below the 200-day average at 0.7035/42 to maintain the downward pressure. Next resistance is at 0.7103/15, which needs to hold to maintain the in-range top.”  

The single currency leaves behind part of the recent weakness and pushes EUR/USD back to the proximity of the 1.1900 hurdle on Monday. EUR/USD looks f

EUR/USD reverses part of the recent pullback and targets 1.19.German 10-year yields edge higher to levels above -0.20%.ECB C.Lagarde speaks later in the session.The single currency leaves behind part of the recent weakness and pushes EUR/USD back to the proximity of the 1.1900 hurdle on Monday. EUR/USD looks firmer, focuses on Lagarde Finally, EUR/USD shows some signs of life after bottoming out in the 1.1850 region earlier in the session. The FOMC-led deep pullback from levels around 1.2130 on Wednesday appears to have met some decent support in the mid-1.1800s for the time being, as investors seem to be cashing out part of the recent strong gains in the dollar. The move up in the pair comes in tandem with a positive tone in yields of the German 10-year benchmark, which manage to return to the -0.20% neighbourhood after briefly flirting with multi-week lows near -0.30 earlier in the month. A more evident driver of the recent drop in EUR/USD, however, comes from the yield spread in the shorter end of the curve between the US and German notes. No data releases scheduled in the euro area on Monday, although investors are expected to closely follow the speech by Chairwoman Lagarde before the European Parliament later in the session. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD collapsed to levels last seen in early April well below 1.1900 the figure on Friday, always in response to the strong improvement in the sentiment surrounding the greenback exclusively following the latest FOMC event. In the meantime, support for the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, prospects of a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets.Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Lagarde (Monday) – Advanced EMU Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – EMU, Germany June flash PMIs – (Wednesday) – German IFO survey (Thursday) – German GfK Consumer Confidence, European Council meeting (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is gaining 0.27% at 1.1894 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1992 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.2032 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.2064 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally). On the downside, a break below 1.1847 (monthly low Jun.18) would target 1.1835 (low Mar.9) and route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31).

Following the FOMC shock this week, all G10 currencies have weakened sharply but EUR selling has been less than most other G10 currencies – the 2.0% d

Following the FOMC shock this week, all G10 currencies have weakened sharply but EUR selling has been less than most other G10 currencies – the 2.0% drop was the third smallest decline. So the question now is with dollar sentiment more positive will market participants return to running large EUR shorts? In the view of economists at MUFG Bank, reasons to sell the euro are not evident. Limited risks of any renewed build-up of large short EUR positions “The US and the EU announced a 5yr tariff truce related to the dispute over subsidies to the airline sector. What’s more, the GDP slowdown in 2018-19 was notable – the annual rate slowed from 3.1% in Q4 2017 to 1.2% in Q4 2018. A period of stronger growth lies ahead now. Yes, this is expected and will be global but it will limit the appetite for EUR selling. Furthermore, a new era of greater fiscal stimulus is about to begin. The first phase of spending under the EU Recovery Fund is set to hit the economy.”  “The signs of a pick-up in vaccinations in April helped fuel EUR41.6 bn worth of equity buying, the largest since December last year. After a prolonged period of under-performance, we see scope for equities in Europe to outperform. Corporate earnings positive surprises relative to negative hit a record earlier this year. Bond inflows remained muted with modest selling worth EUR1.4 bn. Overtime as EU Recovery Fund debt expands and becomes more liquid, foreign investor appetite is likely to pick up given the approx. 25bp pick-up over Bunds.”  “We believe the outlook in Europe is not consistent with a renewed large build-up of EUR short positions in the market with portfolio flows also set to support EUR.”  

EUR/JPY weakness has accelerated further following the completion of a top. Analysts at Credit Suisse stay biased lower for a test of a cluster of wha

EUR/JPY weakness has accelerated further following the completion of a top. Analysts at Credit Suisse stay biased lower for a test of a cluster of what we see as more important supports at 129.59/36. Resistance is seen at 131.38/48  “We stay biased lower for a test of what we see as a more important cluster of supports at 129.59/36 – the 23.6% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bull trend, 38.2% retracement of the rally from last October and the key April lows. Our bias remains to look for a floor here.  “A direct break on a closing basis below 129.59/36 can see weakness extend further to the late March low at 128.29, potentially the 200-day average, now at 127.66.” “Above 130.94 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a recovery back to 131.38/48, but with a fresh cap expected here for now. A break though can see strength extend back to the “neckline” to the top at 132.66/70.”  

EUR/USD moved back below the 1.20 mark on the higher-than-expected FOMC dot projection. In the view of economists at HSBC, the Fed’s patient approach

EUR/USD moved back below the 1.20 mark on the higher-than-expected FOMC dot projection. In the view of economists at HSBC, the Fed’s patient approach to policy leaves the door open to some modest USD weakness over the near term. Yet, some economic and political factors may start to act as EUR headwinds going forwards, as the recovery progresses. Domestic positives will only be able to elicit some modest EUR strength “We believe a key headwind to extended EUR/USD gains beyond 2018 highs is that the personality of the FX market is set to change in the coming months, once the Federal Reserve (Fed) moves more stridently towards its taper later this year and relative interest rates increase their influence relative to risk appetite. It is a transition that is likely to cap much of the USD-driven upside for EUR/USD that has been such a big part of the rally over the past year. However, we are not convinced that this transition point has been reached in full and a still-patient Fed may frustrate the more hawkish elements of the market. All this should leave the door open to some modest USD weakness over the near-term.” “For the EUR, domestic positives do exist, including the accelerating vaccine roll out, the economic reopening and associated upswing, and the ground-breaking EU recovery fund. But they will only be able to elicit a modest degree of EUR strength.” “As we move towards and into 2022, the FX market may become more mindful of some of the headwinds the EUR may face, ironically as the recovery progresses. The FX focus may have shifted from the cyclical upswing to the structural headwinds of debt and pandemic scarring that will be felt differently across the Eurozone. Possible North-South tensions may reemerge on the need to introduce consolidation measures to restore fiscal sustainability, which may even cause some uncertainty over future EU recovery fund disbursements due to its policy conditionality. Finally, key elections (for example, Germany’s national election in September) could also have significant effects on the EUR in both directions.”  

Gold fell a sixth consecutive session on Friday, closing at $1764.16 to lose 6.0% on the week. The bearish pressure could take a breather this week an

Gold fell a sixth consecutive session on Friday, closing at $1764.16 to lose 6.0% on the week. The bearish pressure could take a breather this week and give some respite to the yellow metal, strategists at OCBC Bank report.  Long-term bearish bias still intact “Bearish pressure may ebb this week – not because we favour the precious metal, but our valuation model suggests gold is currently trading in the middle of its fair-value range after last week’s sharp selloff. Regardless, our bearish call from two weeks ago has played out nicely.”  “Global assets now look like they are beginning to move in tandem – the decline in Treasury breakeven yields and gold price reinforce the ‘transitory’ inflation idea, while prospects of rate normalisation have dampened riskier assets like equities and commodities.”  “We see gold likely to trade range bound in the short term but stay bearish longer-term.”  

The Delta coronavirus variant, which first emerged in India, appeared in clusters across Germany, France and Spain and raised concerns amongst the Eur

The Delta coronavirus variant, which first emerged in India, appeared in clusters across Germany, France and Spain and raised concerns amongst the European health officials, according to the Financial Times (FT). Key takeaways “While the new strain, which first emerged in India, still only accounts for a fraction of the total coronavirus cases in mainland Europe, it is gaining ground, according to a Financial Times analysis of global genomic data from the virus tracking database Gisaid.” “It accounts for 96 per cent of sequenced COVID-19 infections in Portugal, more than 20 per cent in Italy and about 16 per cent in Belgium, the FT's calculations show.” “Scientists across the continent are now looking to the UK -- where COVID-19 cases have tripled in the past month and the Delta variant accounts for about 98 per cent of all new infections -- for clues about what may happen next and which measures may need to be taken.” “French authorities are currently trying to contain an outbreak in the Landes region, near the Spanish border, where 125 cases of the Delta variant have been confirmed by genetic sequencing and another 130 are suspected, representing about 30 per cent of recent infections in the area.” Related readsEUR/USD Forecast: A technical rebound looks likely

USD/CAD stays biased higher over at least the next month in the view of the Credit Suisse analyst team. Next resistance is seen at 1.2514, then the mo

USD/CAD stays biased higher over at least the next month in the view of the Credit Suisse analyst team. Next resistance is seen at 1.2514, then the more important cluster at 1.2639/53. USD/CAD has broken above the 55-DMA, which marks an important trend change “USD/CAD surged higher again on Friday after breaking above 1.2266/61, which included the important 55-day average. The 55-day average had essentially capped the market all year and so the sustained move above here marked an important change of trend for the next 1 -2 months, reinforced by the cross higher in daily MACD.”  “Next resistance is seen at 1.2500/14, which may stall the market at first, with the potential for a move back to the major cluster of resistances at 1.2639/53, which is a major medium to long-term inflection point, particularly with the 200 -day average just above at 1.2711.”  “Near-term support moves to 1.2435/17, then 1.2265/61, which now ideally holds to keep the 1-month risks higher. A quick close below here would suggest the market is moving into a choppy broad range, with next resistance at 1.2156/45.”  

Belgium Consumer Confidence Index: 8 (June) vs 4

Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Haris Handy assess the latest interest rate decision by the BI. Key Quotes “Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its

Economist at UOB Group Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Haris Handy assess the latest interest rate decision by the BI. Key Quotes “Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% at its June 2021 monetary policy meeting (MPC). Consequently, BI maintained the Deposit Facility rate at 2.75%, as well as the Lending Facility rate at 4.25%. BI stated that the decision is consistent with the low inflation projection and maintained rupiah stability, as well as efforts to strengthen the national economic recovery.” “BI will also continue to optimize the accommodative monetary and macroprudential policy through various policy measures…” “BI reiterated that the global financial volatility should ease as the Fed’s policy outlook becomes clearer. BI doesn’t expect that the Fed will start tapering its asset purchases until the first quarter of 2022.” “With the current global development, we are in the view that BI has less room to trim its benchmark rate further. Nonetheless, BI will keep its accommodative monetary policy via other monetary, macroprudential, and liquidity-supporting measures to effectively transmit the lowering of the benchmark interest rate so far into the economy. We keep our BI rate forecast to stay at current level of 3.50% for the rest of the year.

BOJ buys JPY70.1 billion in ETFs, first purchase since April developing story ....

BOJ buys JPY70.1 billion in ETFs, first purchase since April   developing story ....

Gold price is attempting a 1% recovery so far this Monday, heading towards the $1800 mark amid a sight pullback in the US dollar across the board. The

Gold price stages a solid comeback as DXY loses ground.Risk-on mood lifts the yields while weighing on the greenback.Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD poised to extend slide after breaking key supportsGold price is attempting a 1% recovery so far this Monday, heading towards the $1800 mark amid a sight pullback in the US dollar across the board. The narrative that the Fed’s hawkish stance has tempered the reflation bets seems to have taken a back seat, as the US Treasury yields recover across the curve alongside a turnaround in the risk appetite. The greenback also suffers from an improved market mood, helping gold price stage a decent rebound. However, with Fed policymakers hinting at sooner than expected rate hikes as early as next year, gold’s upside attempts appear limited. Gold price will remain at the mercy of the dollar’s price action ahead of the Fedspeak, as the data docket remains scarce. Read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attempts a bounce amid falling yields, will it last?Gold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is approaching a minor hurdle at the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day of $1785 on the road to recovery. If the recovery picks up additional strength, then the bulls could target $1788, a confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and pivot point one-day R1. Recapturing the $1797 barrier is critical for gold price to extended the reversal from two-month lows of $1761. On the flip side, strong support aligns at $1775, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and the previous low one-hour. The next downside target is envisioned at $1770, the intersection of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and SMA5 four-hour. The previous month’s low at $1766 will be on the sellers’ radars if the above support caves in. Here is how it looks on the tool        About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

The GBP/JPY cross managed to rebound around 90 pips from multi-week lows and edged back closer to the top end of its daily range during the early Euro

GBP/JPY staged a goodish intraday bounce from the lowest level since May 7.A turnaround in the global equity markets undermined the safe-haven JPY.A modest USD pullback benefitted the GBP, which provided an additional lift.The GBP/JPY cross managed to rebound around 90 pips from multi-week lows and edged back closer to the top end of its daily range during the early European session. The cross was last seen trading with modest intraday gains, comfortably above the 152.00 round-figure mark. The cross extended its recent sharp pullback from multi-year tops and witnessed some follow-through selling through the first half of the trading action on Monday. However, a combination of factors helped limit the downside, rather assisted the GBP/JPY cross to attract some buying near the 151.30 region. A dramatic turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a strong intraday bounce in the US equity futures – undermined the Japanese yen's safe-haven status. On the other hand, the British pound benefitted from a modest USD pullback, which was seen as another factor that extended some support to the GBP/JPY cross. That said, concerns about the EU-UK collision over Northern Ireland protocol. This, along with worries that the government's decision to delay the final stage of easing lockdown measures could hinder the nascent economic recovery, might act as a headwind for the sterling. This, in turn, might cap gains for the GBP/JPY cross. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the UK on Monday. Hence, it remains to be seen if the GBP/JPY cross is able to capitalize on the move or meets with some fresh supply at higher levels. Investors now look forward to the upcoming Bank of England meeting on Thursday for a fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch  

The USD/CHF pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and oscillated in a range through the early European session. The pair was la

USD/CHF witnessed a subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new trading week.The risk-off mood underpinned the safe-haven CHF and capped any meaningful gains for the pair.Sliding US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive; the hawkish Fed helped limit losses.The USD/CHF pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and oscillated in a range through the early European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 0.9210-15 region, just below two-month tops. A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the USD/CHF pair to capitalize on last week's hawkish FOMC-inspired strong move up, instead led to range-bound price action on Monday. The prevalent risk-off mood – as depicted by a weaker trading sentiment around the global equity markets – underpinned the safe-haven Swiss franc. On the other hand, the ongoing sharp decline in the US Treasury bond yields kept the US dollar bulls on the defensive and further collaborated towards capping the gains for the USD/CHF pair. That said, the Fed's surprise hawkish shift continued acting as a tailwind for the greenback and should help limit any meaningful pullback for the pair. It is worth recalling that the Fed stunned investors at the end of June policy meeting on Wednesday and brought forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against policymakers projection for no increase until 2024 in the March meeting. Adding to this, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussion at the last meeting. Speaking to CNBC, Bullard added that the shift toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to stronger economic growth and a quicker than expected rise in inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, technical indicators on short-term charts are already flashing overbought conditions. This seemed to be another factor that held traders from placing any aggressive bullish bets. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the recent sharp bounce from multi-month lows, around the 0.8925 region touched earlier this month. Technical levels to watch  

The ongoing vaccine roll out, reopening of economies and growing inflationary pressure has brightened the outlook for oil prices. What’s more, OPEC+ h

The ongoing vaccine roll out, reopening of economies and growing inflationary pressure has brightened the outlook for oil prices. What’s more, OPEC+ has started normalising its oil output, which will ease the upside potential for oil prices from the sound demand backdrop, strategists at Danske Bank brief. Range bound in the second half of the year “Vaccine roll out, albeit with some bumps on the road, reopening of economies, strong support from monetary and fiscal policy and a relatively weak dollar all creates a sound backdrop for global oil demand. World oil consumption remains somewhat below the pre-pandemic level, but we are confident consumption will fully recover over the coming 1-2 year.”  “We expect OPEC+ to balance the normalisation of output with the ongoing recovery in demand. Drilling activity is slowly increasing in the US shale oil and has not led to higher production yet. Inventory levels still have some way to go before they are normalised. On a medium to long-term horizon, current low investment activity now may result in supply shortages.” “We expect Brent to average $70bbl in Q3 and Q4 and $72.5bbl in 2022.”  

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/CNH could extend the upside to the 6.4800 level in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we held

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/CNH could extend the upside to the 6.4800 level in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we held the view that ‘while there is room for USD to move above the major resistance at 6.4660, it is unlikely able to maintain a foothold above this level’. Our expectation did not materialize as it eased off after touching 6.4640. Upward momentum has waned somewhat and this coupled with overbought conditions suggest that the risk for a sustained advance in USD is not high. For today, USD is expected to trade within a 6.4440/6.4660 range.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Friday (18 Jun, spot at 6.4530). As highlighted, ‘upward momentum is stronger than we anticipated and the next level to focus on above 6.4660 is at 6.4800’. The upside risk is deemed intact as long as USD does not move below 6.4270 (no change in ‘strong support’ level). Meanwhile, overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first.”

The post-FOMC USD surge persisted on Friday, with the USD broadly firmer across the G-10 space. Key support levels on the EUR/USD were breached, leav

The post-FOMC USD surge persisted on Friday, with the USD broadly firmer across the G-10 space. Key support levels on the EUR/USD were breached, leaving the pair still biased lower, for now, economists at OCBC Bank report. Comments from Bullard about a late-2022 lift-off gave more credence to the dot plot “The rapid breach of supports post-FOMC may signal more downside for the EUR/USD.”  “Juxtapose Bullard’s late-2022 lift-off against comments from ECB’s Lane pushing back against looking at the Sep ECB meeting as a key meeting to reduce monetary support. This should reinforce the divergence between the two, and leave the EUR/USD impinged on a structural basis.” “1.1800 and the April low at 1.1704 may be a multi-session target for now.” 

The greenback starts the week in an inconclusive foot and prompts the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gyrate around the area of recent tops near 92.30. US Do

DXY alternates gains with losses around 92.30.US 10-year yields stay depressed near the 1.40% region.The Chicago Fed index, Fedspeak next on tap in the docket.The greenback starts the week in an inconclusive foot and prompts the US Dollar Index (DXY) to gyrate around the area of recent tops near 92.30. US Dollar Index faces the next hurdle at 92.50 The index looks to add to the recent strong advance, although it seems to have met quite a solid resistance in the vicinity of 92.50 for the time being. It is worth recalling that the sentiment for the dollar improved dramatically after the FOMC event last Wednesday opened the door to “talk about talk about tapering” earlier than anticipated by most investors, while the “dots plot” now signals two interest rate hikes at some point in late 2023. Adding to the above, further improvement in key fundamentals and higher inflation could even bring forward a rate hike by end of 2022. Recent strength in the buck also came in response to comments from (ex dovish?) St. Louis Fed J,Bullard at a CNBC interview on Friday, when he defended the recent hawkish twist in the Fed’s message. Later in the US data space, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is only due along with the speech by NY Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist). What to look for around USD The index moved beyond the 92.00 level as investors continue to adjust to the recent hawkish message from the FOMC at its meeting on Wednesday. The likeliness that the tapering talk could kick in before anyone has anticipated and the view of higher rates in 2023 (or before) fuel the sharp bounce in the buck to levels last seen in mid-April. However, the still unchanged view on “transient” higher inflation and hence the continuation of the dovish stance by the Federal Reserve carries the potential to temper the current momentum in the dollar. A sustained break above the critical 200-day SMA should shift the dollar’s outlook to a more constructive one.Key events in the US this week: Chairman Powell’s testimony, Existing Home Sales (Tuesday) – New Home Sales, flash Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) – Final Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Claims (Thursday) – Core PCE, final June Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families, worth nearly $6 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.11% at 92.21 and faces the next support at 91.51 (200-day SMA) followed by 91.10 (100-day SMA) and finally 89.53 (monthly low May 25). On the flip side, a breakout of 92.40 (monthly high Jun.18) would open the door to 92.46 (23.6% Fibo level of the 2020-2021 drop) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.21).

There has been a clear and important shift in US monetary policy with the Fed rhetoric turning increasingly hawkish. The shift has triggered a rebound

There has been a clear and important shift in US monetary policy with the Fed rhetoric turning increasingly hawkish. The shift has triggered a rebound in the USD. Subsequently, economists at Danske Bank forecast a little stronger USD/CNY over the coming months. EUR/CNY seen at 7.70 on a 12-month view “The shift in Fed rhetoric in our view marks the turning point for the USD and we see the turnaround in USD/CNY materializing over the next 6-12 months.”  “We have lifted the 1M and 3M forecast slightly to 6.45 (from 6.40) and 6.50 (from 6.45) but still see the cross at 6.60 and 6.70 on 6M and 12M, respectively.” “We look for EUR/CNY to stay around 7.70 on 12M but with some downside risk. The main risk is USD/CNY rising stronger than we forecast and EUR/CNY falling more.”  

EUR/CHF now trades closer to 1.09 than 1.10, as US real rates have moved lower. However, there has been a clear and important shift in US monetary pol

EUR/CHF now trades closer to 1.09 than 1.10, as US real rates have moved lower. However, there has been a clear and important shift in US monetary policy with the Fed rhetoric turning increasingly hawkish. The shift has triggered a rebound in the USD, which is set to drive the EUR/CHF pair higher, according to economists at Danske Bank. Fed is turning increasingly hawkish “We still see a case for higher US real rates, especially now the Fed is turning more hawkish. We expect this will send EUR/CHF higher although we think most of the increases are now behind us. We still expect EUR/CHF to trade around 1.13 in 12M.” “The key for the pair is if the global macro becomes so good in Europe that markets start talking about ECB rate hikes. Today, such a scenario is not in play. A setback in risk sentiment is another joker.”  

The US Dollar continues to appreciate across the board. AUD/USD trades in six-month lows near the 0.7463 December 21 low and could extend its fall to

The US Dollar continues to appreciate across the board. AUD/USD trades in six-month lows near the 0.7463 December 21 low and could extend its fall to the 0.7346/40 region, as reported by Commerzbank. Initial resistance seen at 0.75330/64 “AUD/USD tumbled through the 200-day moving average at 0.7554 and the 0.7533 April low close to the late December low at 0.7463. Below it the September high can be spotted at 0.7413 and the mid-September and early November highs at 0.7346/40.”  “Initial resistance above the February and April lows as well as the 200-day moving average at 0.75330/64 can be seen at the 0.7646 early June low. Further minor resistance lies at the 0.7675/91 April 22 to May lows as well as along the 55-day moving average at 0.7721.”  

The USD/CAD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and consolidated its recent strong gains to near two-mon

USD/CAD reversed a dip to the 1.2435 region and short to near two-month tops on Monday.The Fed’s hawkish surprise continued acting as a tailwind for the USD and remained supportive.An uptick in oil prices might underpin the loonie and keep a lid on any further gains for the pair.The USD/CAD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session and consolidated its recent strong gains to near two-month tops. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.2465-70 region, nearly unchanged for the day. A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the USD/CAD pair to capitalize on last week's strong positive move, instead led to a subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new week. A modest uptick in oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie. On the other hand, the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields held the US dollar bulls on the defensive and capped gains for the major. That said, the Fed's surprise hawkish shift acted as a tailwind for the USD and helped limit any meaningful corrective slide for the USD/CAD pair. The Fed surprised investors at the end of June policy meeting on Wednesday and brought forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes. The so-called dot plot pointed to two rate hikes by the end of 2023 as against March's projection for no increase until 2024. Adding to this, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Friday that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially opened taper discussion at the last meeting. Speaking to CNBC, Bullard further added that the shift toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a natural response to stronger economic growth and a quicker than expected rise in inflationary pressures. The fundamental backdrop remains tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains. Hence, a subsequent strength beyond the key 1.2500 psychological mark, towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the 1.2535 horizontal zone, now looks a distinct possibility. In the absence of any major market-moving economic release, the USD/oil price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD/CAD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Economists at Danske Bank expect the US economy to continue to catch up with Asia. Therefore, the USD/JPY pair is set to see more upside potential. Hi

Economists at Danske Bank expect the US economy to continue to catch up with Asia. Therefore, the USD/JPY pair is set to see more upside potential. High commodity prices to continue to weigh on the yen “We think USD/JPY has further to go, as the US economy will catch-up to Asia as it opens up and outpaces Asia and particularly Japan in the vaccine race. This will continue to press for higher US yields and BoJ will remain reluctant to let JGB yields drift much higher with inflation so far off target.” “To take USD/JPY back towards 100, we need a change in risk sentiment causing US rates and commodities to decrease again. BoJ tolerating higher JGB yields poses a limited risk, because they will be very careful and only take baby steps exactly to avoid a significant strengthening of the yen.”  

For the Swedish krona, focus remains on the business cycle, risk sentiment and a Fed, where economists at Danske Bank believe that a gradually stronge

For the Swedish krona, focus remains on the business cycle, risk sentiment and a Fed, where economists at Danske Bank believe that a gradually stronger USD will help pushing EUR/SEK higher over the medium-term. EUR/SEK seen at 10.40 on a 12-month view “Focus remains on the global business cycle, risk sentiment and a less accommodative FED, where our baseline is that a gradually stronger USD will help pushing EUR/SEK higher over the medium-term.”  “Furthermore, the steep drop in Swedish inflation will keep any monetary policy tightening at bay – and Board members alert to any premature appreciation of the krona. While there are always risks associated with Riksbank announcements, our best guess is that the upcoming one will not be a major market mover.”  “We raise our 1M forecast to 10.20 (10.10) and keep 3, 6 and 12M intact at 10.20, 10.30 and 12M 10.40.” “If the RB pencils in a hike at the end of the horizon (not our baseline), it would weigh on EUR/SEK. Conversely, if even a small probability for a cut is pencilled in (unlikely), it would send EUR/SEK substantially higher.”  

GBP/USD has dropped back below 1.3800. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, thinks cable could fall as far as the March and Apr

GBP/USD has dropped back below 1.3800. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, thinks cable could fall as far as the March and April lows at the 1.3670/69 neighborhood. Uptrend is at 1.3767 “GBP/USD’s has slipped to the 2020-2021 support line at 1.3767 below which the March and April lows can be found at 1.3670/69.” “Minor resistance comes in at the 1.3830/58 mid-February and early March lows and also along the 55-day moving average at 1.3997. Further up sit the 1.4082/91 late May and early June lows.”  

Gold lost more than 5% on a weekly basis for the first time in a year and closed a little above $1,770. The next target on the downside is located at

Gold lost more than 5% on a weekly basis for the first time in a year and closed a little above $1,770. The next target on the downside is located at $1,756, as FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer notes. XAU/USD poised to extend slide after breaking key supports “On Wednesday, the IHS Markit will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI reports for June. Investors will keep a close eye on the underlying details with regards to input price pressures. In case these reports reaffirm the view that inflation will continue to rise, the USD could gather additional strength and weigh on XAU/USD.” “On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its policy decision. A hawkish outlook could trigger a sharp increase in the GBP/USD pair and help XAU/USD turn north.” “The BEA will publish the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, on Friday. The Core PCE Price Index is forecast to edge lower to 2.9% in May from 3.1% in April. A stronger-than-expected PCE inflation is likely to allow the greenback to continue to outperform its rivals and vice versa.” “Unless gold makes daily close above $1,800 (100-day SMA, psychological level, Fibonacci 50% retracement of April-June uptrend), the bearish pressure is likely to remain intact in the near term. Above that level, the next critical resistance is located at $1,825 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) ahead of $1,835 (200-day SMA).” “Strong support seems to have formed at $1,770 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) before $1,756 (April 29 low, static level) and $1,745 (static level).”  

In Norway, economists at Danske Bank now expect 5 hikes by the end of 2022. Notwithstanding, they stick to the view that EUR/NOK is set to move toward

In Norway, economists at Danske Bank now expect 5 hikes by the end of 2022. Notwithstanding, they stick to the view that EUR/NOK is set to move towards higher as relative rates matter less than the direction of the dollar and global reflation. Peak reflation to weigh on NOK despite NB rate hikes “While higher NOK rates in isolation are supportive of a stronger NOK we still highlight that relative short-end rates are an inferior driver of NOK relative to the global reflation theme.” “The biggest risk factors to our forecasts lie in the global reflation theme and thereby not least USD real rates, risk appetite, oil and vaccine rollouts. Better news and/or a more patient Fed than in our baseline would support reflation underpinning a continued strengthening of NOK. On the other hand, marked risk-off could trigger a larger-than-projected setback” “As we now expect 5 hikes by end 2022 we lower our EUR/NOK forecast profile slightly but stick to the view that cross is set to move higher over the coming year on peak reflation. We forecast the cross at 10.20 in 1M (previously 10.10), 10.30 in 3M (unchanged), 10.40 in 6M (unchanged) and 10.40 in 12M (10.50).”  

The US Dollar continues to appreciate across the board. Consequently, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects the USD/CHF

The US Dollar continues to appreciate across the board. Consequently, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects the USD/CHF pair to reach the 0.9355/75 region. Long-term, USD/CHF targets the April high at 0.9472 “USD/CHF is fast approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9264 and the March 12 high at 0.9325. Further up the early March high can be seen at 0.9375 and the April peak at 0.9472.”  “Slips should find support between the 55 and 200-day moving averages at 0.9083/71 and at the 0.9054/46 late May and early June highs as well as the early February high.”  “In view of the last few days’ strong ascent we switched our forecast to a bullish one.”  

GBP/USD is looking to find its feet above the 1.3800 barrier after hitting two-month lows at 1.3786 earlier in the Asian session. The falling Treasury

GBP/USD rebounds but not out of the woods yet. Daily hedonal trendline support looks at risk amid bearish RSI.The cable targets 1.3680 if the bears refuse to give up. GBP/USD is looking to find its feet above the 1.3800 barrier after hitting two-month lows at 1.3786 earlier in the Asian session. The falling Treasury yields come to the rescue of the cable bulls amid retreating reflation bets, as the Fed signals rate lift-offs sooner than expected. However, the bounce appears limited amid concerns over the delay in the UK reopening and Brexit issue. Additionally, broad-based US dollar strength also remains a weight on the spot. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot seems to have found some support at the critical horizontal (dashed) trendline at 1.3796. Therefore, the bulls are attempting a minor bounce. Immediate resistance awaits at the psychological 1.3850 level, as GBP/USD yearn to recapture the horizontal 100-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 1.3939. GBP/USD daily chart However, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) diving out of the oversold territory, currently at 31.73, the bears are likely to receive a fresh boost to take on the downside once again. A sustained break below the abovementioned key support will open floors towards the next significant support located at 1.3680, the horizontal (orange) trendline.   GBP/USD additional levels to watch  

EUR/USD fell to minor support at 1.1836/24, neutralizing the bullish view of economists at Commerzbank. Looking ahead, the pair may target the 1.1704

EUR/USD fell to minor support at 1.1836/24, neutralizing the bullish view of economists at Commerzbank. Looking ahead, the pair may target the 1.1704 March low. Bullish bias neutralized “EUR/USD fell through the 2020-2021 uptrend line at 1.1927 to the March 9 low and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1836/24, making us question our longer-term bullish view. Further down the April 5 low sits at 1.1738 and the March low can be spotted at 1.1704.”  “Minor resistance above the February low at 1.1952 can be seen along the 200-day moving average at 1.1996 and then also at the 1.2052 mid-May low and the 55-day moving average at 1.2083.”  

USD/JPY is expected to navigate within the 109.60-110.80 range in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expe

USD/JPY is expected to navigate within the 109.60-110.80 range in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected USD to ‘trade between 110.10 and 110.60’ last Friday. USD subsequently traded within a lower range than expected (109.93/110.46) before closing little changed at 110.19 (-0.01%). The movement is still viewed as a consolidation and USD is likely to trade between 109.90 and 110.45 for today.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (18 Jun, spot at 110.25), we warned about expecting further USD strength as we indicated that USD ‘has to move and stay above 110.60 within these couple of days or the odds for USD to break above 110.95 would diminish’. USD subsequently broke the ‘strong support’ level of 110.00 (low of 109.95). The break of the ‘strong support’ indicates that the USD strength that started last week has come to an end. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and USD is expected to trade within a 109.60/110.80 range for now.”

In light of advanced prints for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the third straight session on Friday, this time by around 3.5K

In light of advanced prints for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the third straight session on Friday, this time by around 3.5K contracts. In the same direction, volume went down by around 94.8K contracts, offsetting the previous build. Natural Gas faces the next support at $3.15Natural gas prices charted an inconclusive session on Friday amidst shrinking open interest and volume, leaving the door open to some consolidation in the short-term horizon. Further downside, in the meantime, is expected to meet support around the $3.15 mark per MMBtu.

The USD/JPY pair dropped to one-week lows, around the 109.70 region during the Asian session, albeit recovered few pips thereafter. The pair was last

A combination of factors prompted some fresh selling around USD/JPY on Monday.Sliding US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive and exerted some pressure.The risk-off mood benefitted the safe-haven JPY and also contributed to the selling bias.The Fed’s surprise hawkish shift acted as a tailwind and helped limit any further losses.The USD/JPY pair dropped to one-week lows, around the 109.70 region during the Asian session, albeit recovered few pips thereafter. The pair was last seen trading just below the key 110.00 psychological mark, down nearly 0.20% for the day. Following the previous session's good two-way price moves, the USD/JPY pair met with some fresh supply on the first day of a new trading week and pressured by a combination of factors. This marked the second day of a negative move in the previous three and dragged the pair further away from two-and-half-month tops, touched in reaction to the Fed's sudden hawkish shift. The prevalent risk-off mood – as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets – underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and exerted some pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Bearish traders further took cues from the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond dropped to the lowest level since February. On the other hand, the US dollar consolidated the post-FOMC strong gains and did little to provide any meaningful impetus to the USD/JPY pair. However, the Fed's surprise move to bring forward its timetable for the first post-pandemic interest rate hikes continued acting as a tailwind for the USD. This, in turn, helped limit any deeper losses for the major, at least for now. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday. Hence, the US bond yields will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the USD/JPY pair. Technical levels to watch  

Economists at Credit Suisse believe the downside for US 10yr Bond Yields from current levels is limited and that price action could be forming a new b

Economists at Credit Suisse believe the downside for US 10yr Bond Yields from current levels is limited and that price action could be forming a new bearish continuation pattern, which would be confirmed above 1.635/645%.  A longer-term yield base would be confirmed above 1.82% “Our expectation is still that the downside in yields is likely to be limited and our medium-term bias is still in favor of higher yields. Going forwards then, a break above the next key support at 1.635/645% would now be sufficient to confirm a new bearish continuation pattern and take the market up to 1.775/82% and eventually beyond. The completion of a bearish continuation pattern would also sharply raise the risk of a longer-term yield base.” “The now confirmed uptrend at 1.455/445% and particularly the channel bottom at 1.425% should now floor the market to avoid a deeper corrective setback. Whilst not our base case, the next levels below here are seen at 1.385%. The maximum correction we can envisage whilst still being consistent with a potential basing structure is a move to 1.295/285%, but this is still very much viewed as a low risk scenario.” “US 10yr Bond Yields are increasingly threatening a long-term 2-year basing structure, which would eventually be confirmed above 1.82%. Thereafter, we look for a move to our prior medium-term objective at 1.965/2.00% and eventually on a 6-12 month horizon, the cluster of retracement resistances at 2.16/18%.”  

Gold is attempting a bounce from two-month lows amid falling yields, although a broadly firmer US dollar is likely to limit the rebound, FXStreet’s Dh

Gold is attempting a bounce from two-month lows amid falling yields, although a broadly firmer US dollar is likely to limit the rebound, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta briefs. XAU/USD attempts a bounce amid falling yields, will it last? “The Fed’s hawkishness has poured cold water over the reflation trades, negatively impact the global stocks and yields. The benchmark 30-year Treasury yields have fallen below the key 2% level, four-month lows, suggesting flattening of the yield curve and receding reflation bets. However, the US dollar continues to hold higher ground, which could likely limit the recovery in the gold price.” “Gold bulls could turn cautious ahead of a slew of speeches lined up from the Fed policymakers. Tuesday’s Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony will also be closely followed.” “Gold’s four-hour chart shows that the price is pausing its recovery momentum just below the falling trendline resistance at $1778.”  The next target for the bulls will then be seen at the bearish 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1801. The further upside will then open up towards the June 17 highs of $1825.” “A retest of the monthly lows at $1761 could be on the cards if gold price faces rejection at the wedge resistance. Further south, the falling trendline support at $1755 will be the line in the sand for the bullish traders.”  

West Texas Crude Oil (WTI) prints substantial gains in the European session. The prices opened lower, however, traveled to the intraday high of $71.95

WTI starts the new trading week on a higher note.Bulls find it difficult to break the $72.00 mark.Prices swing in between the $71and $72 price band.West Texas Crude Oil (WTI) prints substantial gains in the European session. The prices opened lower, however, traveled to the intraday high of $71.95 and reversed back to the lower level. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $71.46, up 0.57% for the day. WTI daily chart On the daily chart, WTI has been under selling pressure, after touching the YTD high of $72.74 on the account of profit taking. The prices found support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which extends from the lows of $61.52, at $69.94. If WTI sustains above the 0.71.50 key psychological mark, then it could see further upside toward the June 17 high in the vicinity of the $72.10 area followed by the high of June 16 formed at $72.74. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds above 50, which indicates an underlying bullish tone in the prices. Next, the WTI bulls could target September 2018 high at $73.65. On the flip side, if prices break the intraday low, then it could further slide toward the above mentioned 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The next area of support would be located at the $69.00 horizontal support level followed by the June 10 low at $68.55. WTI additional levels
 

AUD/USD could attempt some consolidation ahead of a potential move to the mid-0.7400s, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view:

AUD/USD could attempt some consolidation ahead of a potential move to the mid-0.7400s, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We underestimated the downward momentum in AUD as it plummeted to 0.7478 (we were of the view that 0.7500 is unlikely to come under threat). The decline appears to be overdone and AUD is unlikely to weaken further. For today, AUD is more likely to trade between 0.7475 and 0.7555.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (18 Jun, spot at 0.7555), we indicated that ‘strong downward momentum indicates that AUD is likely to weaken further’. We added, ‘the next level to focus on is at 0.7500 and a break of 0.7500 would open up the way for a move to 0.7450’. While our view was not wrong, we did not anticipate the rapid pace of decline as AUD plunged to 0.7478 during NY session. The level to focus on is at 0.7450 even though deeply oversold shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. On the upside, a break of 0.7600 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 0.7625 last Friday) would indicate that the downside risk that started earlier last week has run its course.”

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Friday,

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by around 27.1K contracts. Volume followed suit and shrank by 176.5K contracts after three daily builds in a row. WTI still targets $73.00 Friday’s uptick in crude oil futures markets was amidst shrinking open interest and volume, noting some short covering behind the move. That said, a corrective decline remains well on the cards, although the broad positive stance in crude oil looks unchanged so far. That said,  WTI faces the immediate target stays at the YTD highs near the $73.00 mark per barrel.

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable could still grind lower and faces the next support of note at 1.3750. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our e

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable could still grind lower and faces the next support of note at 1.3750. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for GBP to ‘consolidate’ last Friday was wrong as the clear break of 1.3900 led to a sharp plunge to 1.3791. Deeply oversold conditions coupled with the relatively firm price actions in early Asian hours indicate that further sustained weakness in GBP is unlikely. GBP is more likely to trade between 1.3780 and 1.3870.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative view in GBP since early last week. Last Friday, we indicated that ‘oversold short-term conditions could lead to 1 to 2 days of consolidation first’. Instead of consolidating, GBP plunged to 1.3791 during NY hours. The rapid and sharp drop appears to be running ahead of itself and while there is room for GBP to weaken to 1.3750, this level may not come into the picture so soon. Overall, the downside risk in GBP remains intact unless it can move above 1.3920 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.4010 last Friday).”

Open interest in gold futures markets extended the downtrend for yet another session and shrank by around 8.8K on Friday, considering preliminary read

Open interest in gold futures markets extended the downtrend for yet another session and shrank by around 8.8K on Friday, considering preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume reversed two builds in a row and went down by around 129.5K contracts. Gold now looks to regain $1,800Gold prices seem to have met decent contention around $1,760 so far. Friday’s shrinking open interest and volume warns against further retracements in the very near term. The current oversold condition of the yellow metal also reinforces the idea that a rebound looks likely. That said, the $1,800 mark per ounce troy should emerge as the initial target of any bullish attempt.

FX option expiries for June 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1800 320m 1.1860 522m 1.1900 554m

FX option expiries for June 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.1800 320m 1.1860 522m 1.1900 554m    1.1925 520m 1.1940/50 975m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          109.50 260m110.00 1.2b110.50 860m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8575 465m 0.8620/30 345m - AUD/JPY: AUD amounts 78.00 1.24b 81.00 1.2b

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted further weakness in EUR/USD is not ruled out in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expected EUR to we

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted further weakness in EUR/USD is not ruled out in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expected EUR to weaken last Friday, we were of the view that ‘a clear break of the major long-term support at 1.1855 would come as a surprise’. However, EUR cracked 1.1855, dropped to 1.1845 before rebounding quickly. Despite the breach of 1.1855, downward momentum has not improved by all that much. There is room for EUR to dip to 1.1835; the next support at 1.1800 is likely out of reach. On the upside, a break of 1.1920 (minor resistance at 1.1900) would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted last Friday, (18 Jun, spot at 1.1915) that risk remains on the downside and the ‘focus has shifted to the next long-term support at 1.1855’. We did not quite expect the rapid manner and ease by which EUR cracked 1.1855 as it plunged to 1.1845 during NY hours. While shorter-term conditions are deeply oversold, further EUR weakness is not ruled out. That said, EUR is unlikely able to maintain the pace of its decline and it may take a while before the next support at 1.1800 comes into the picture. All in, the downside risk remains intact unless EUR can break above 1.1970 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.2005 last Friday).”

GBP/JPY stays pressured for the fifth consecutive day as bears attack early May’s lows, down 0.45% around 151.50, ahead of Monday’s London open. Altho

GBP/JPY prints five-day downtrend, extends 11-week-old support break.Bearish MACD favor further weakness but RSI probes the bears near the key supports.152.30 guards immediate upside, 100-day SMA and four-month-old support line lures bears.GBP/JPY stays pressured for the fifth consecutive day as bears attack early May’s lows, down 0.45% around 151.50, ahead of Monday’s London open. Although the oversold RSI conditions seem to test the pair bears of late, sustained break of previous support from April and most bearish MACD signals since late March keep the pair sellers hopeful. On the way down, a 100-day SMA level of 151.13 can offer immediate support to the quote ahead of an ascending support line from late February, around 150.70. During the quote’s further weakness past 150.70, the 150.00 psychological magnet and April’s bottom surrounding 149.00 could test GBP/JPY bears. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback may aim for 152.30-40 region comprising multiple tops marked since March before targeting the previous horizontal support around 153.45-50. It’s worth noting that 154.85 and the 156.00 threshold become the key hurdles during the GBP/JPY upside beyond 153.50. Overall, GBP/JPY is yet to announce its bearish journey but short-term declines can’t be ruled out. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The EUR/JPY price continues to drift lower in the early European session. The pair opens at a higher level, albeit fizzles out rather quickly, and ref

EUR/JPY edges lower in the European session on Monday.EUR remains under pressure amid USD strength and risk aversion. ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech will be in focus.The EUR/JPY price continues to drift lower in the early European session. The pair opens at a higher level, albeit fizzles out rather quickly,  and refreshes the multi-month on Monday. The rapid selling action in the previous week erases previous two month gains in a matter of a few days. As of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at 130.26, down 0.38% for the day. Investors continue to digest the Fed hawkish outlook on inflation and interest rates. The central bank's sudden aggressive U-turn pushes the greenback higher against the majors.  The shared currency failed to capitalize the gains on the strong economic numbers, and positive comments from the ECB President Christine Lagarde on weekends which said that progress on strategy overhaul is good so far. The Euro struggled despite the higher Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, which beat the market expectations and rose 1% YoY basis. ECB pledged to continue with its bond buying program despite the raised economic outlook. This signaled some doubts among the policymakers over the pace of economic recovery. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced an extension of its pandemic-relief program and kept its monetary policy unchanged. The yen gains on its traditional safe-haven asset appeal. As for now, investors are gearing up for the ECB President Lagarde speech to gauge the market sentiment. EUR/JPY additional levels
 

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 21: A risk-aversion wave has gripped the markets starting out a fresh week, as the Fed’s hawkish turn pr

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 21: A risk-aversion wave has gripped the markets starting out a fresh week, as the Fed’s hawkish turn prompts dialing back of reflation bets while weighing heavily on the Treasury yields and equities. The US returns on the market hit the lowest levels in four months, with the 30-year yields back below the 2% level. The US Treasury yield curve flattened after the Fed projected two interest-rate hikes by the end of 2023.  The Asian stocks are a sea of red, as the Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 index sheds almost 4%. The futures tied to the S&P 500 index drops 0.50% towards 4,100. Across the G7 fx space, the yen emerges the strongest amid tumbling yields and risk-off mood, hammering USD/JPY below 110.00. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans advances, as investors believe that the Emerging Markets’ central banks are likely to outdo the Fed’s tightening pace. AUD/USD hovers around 0.7500, shrugging off downbeat Australian Preliminary Retail Sales. EUR/USD eases towards 1.1850, as the US dollar holds onto last week’s gains amid sooner-than-expected Fed rate hikes, especially after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he sees a Fed lift-off in late 2022. GBP/USD drops back below 1.3800 amid Brexit concerns and the delay in the UK reopening, in light of rising worries about the Delta COVID-19 variant.Gold is attempting a bounce from two-month lows amid falling yields, although broadly firmer US dollar is likely to limit the rebound.Bitcoin has recaptured $34,000 but remains in the hands of the sellers, as Bitcoin hashrate suffers a massive drop on China’s continued crackdown on BTC mining. The economic calendar is relatively scarce, with the focus on the Fedspeak.  Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:Rate this content (function() { var qs,js,q,s,d=document, gi=d.getElementById, ce=d.createElement, gt=d.getElementsByTagName, id="typef_orm_share", b="https://embed.typeform.com/"; if(!gi.call(d,id)){ js=ce.call(d,"script"); js.id=id; js.src=b+"embed.js"; q=gt.call(d,"script")[0]; q.parentNode.insertBefore(js,q) } })()

Palladium (XPD/USD) consolidates recent losses below $2,500, up 0.82% intraday near $2,495 ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the bright

Palladium revisits 200-DMA, five-month-old trend line on a bounce from three-month low.Bearish MACD, strong upside hurdles and US dollar strength probe the buyers.Horizontal area from November 2020 adds to the upside filters, sellers brace for a bumpy road ahead.Palladium (XPD/USD) consolidates recent losses below $2,500, up 0.82% intraday near $2,495 ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal keeps the bounce off March 17 lows, flashed the previous day, to battle a convergence of 200-day SMA and previous support line. Given the strongest bearish bias of the MACD in 15 months, coupled with the sustained trading below the key levels, palladium prices are likely to remain pressured toward the late November 2020 tops surrounding $2,435. It’s worth noting that there are multiple supports around $2,350 and the $,2300 threshold before dragging the quote to March’s low of $2277 during the commodity’s further weakness. Alternatively, a clear upside break of $2,500-05 resistance confluence, previous support, won’t offer a free pass to the buyers as a seven-month-old horizontal hurdle around $2,520-30 becomes a tough nut to crack for palladium buyers. Even if the precious metal prices cross the $2,530 hurdle, there are multiple hurdles around $2,575 and $2,685-90 before highlighting May’s low of $2,725 for the bulls. To sum up, Palladium bears seem to take a breather but aren’t out of the woods. Palladium daily chart Trend: Bearish  

After having intense selling pressure in the last three sessions, AUD/USD prints some gains on Monday. The pair makes an intraday high above 0.7500 ke

AUD/USD trades cautiously with some gains on Monday.Bulls struggle to hold onto the gains beyond 0.7520.Oversold MACD indicates big swing moves in any direction.After having intense selling pressure in the last three sessions, AUD/USD prints some gains on Monday. The pair makes an intraday high above 0.7500 key psychological mark, but fails to hold onto the gains.
At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7492, up 0.20% for the day. AUD/USD daily chart On the daily chart, the pair has been under strong selling pressure since it broke the 0.7700 crucial trading level. The formation of multiple bottoms makes it an important level to trade. The price action below the session’s low at 0.7478 could open the fresh round of selling for the pair while keeping the previous year’s level in sight. The first target which the bears would capture would be low on December 10 at 0.7425. The oversold Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator makes bears hopeful for further downside toward December 9, 2020, low at 0.7403. Next, market participants would aim for the 0.7385 horizontal support level. Alternatively, any uptick in the MACD could make sharp upside movement due to overstretched selling conditions. AUD/USD bulls would attempt to reach the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7555. A sustained move above the 200-day SMA will strengthen the bullish biasness in the pair. In doing so, the AUD/USD pair would reach out at the 0.7600 horizontal resistance level followed by the April 13 high at 0.7651. AUD/USD additional levels  

Equity markets in Asia keep the red amid escalating woes over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy adjustments. The same joins down Treasury

Asian shares print losses amid fears of Fed rate-hike, tapering.US inflation expectations drag Treasury yields, deadlock over US infrastructure spending talks adds to the bearish moves.Downbeat Aussie Retail Sales, PBOC inaction exert additional downside pressure.Fedspeak becomes the key directive after hawkish FOMC, T-bond yields eyed.Equity markets in Asia keep the red amid escalating woes over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy adjustments. The same joins down Treasury yields to weigh on the market sentiment during early Monday. That said, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan drops 1.3% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 refreshes monthly low to become the biggest loser of the region, down 3.70% by the press time of the pre-European session. Australia’s ASX 200 comes second in the list of bears as it drops around 1.9% following the downbeat prints of preliminary Retail Sales for May. Further, stocks from Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand were losing anywhere between 1.5% to 1.0% whereas Chinese indicates were on the same line even as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept monetary policy unchanged. Indonesia’s IDX and India’s BSE Sensex were also on the back foot, losing around 0.80% by the time of the press, amid broad fears of a halt to the easy money policies. It’s worth noting stock futures in the west are also on the back foot whereas the US Treasury yields refresh four-month low as the 30-year T-bond yields drop below 2.0% to flatten the curve further. Read: S&P 500 Futures refresh monthly low as US Treasury yields drop to four-month bottom Other than the fears of the monetary policy normalization, a lack of progress over the US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan as well as rising worries over the Delta variant of the covid also please the equity bears. As the global markets jostle with the increased odds of the US monetary policy adjustments, further comments from the Fed policymakers become important. Hence, today’s speech from New York Fed President John C. Williams will be the key to follow for fresh impulse.

USD/INR bulls keep reins around 74.25, up 0.16% intraday, amid the initial Indian trading session on Monday. The Indian rupee (INR) pay stepped back f

USD/INR reverses Friday’s pullback from late April lows.US dollar remains firmer amid Fed rate-hike, tapering concerns.RBI’s push for more reserves for trade exerts additional downside pressure.Fedspeak, Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Indian Balance of Payment eyed.USD/INR bulls keep reins around 74.25, up 0.16% intraday, amid the initial Indian trading session on Monday. The Indian rupee (INR) pay stepped back from a two-month top the previous day amid market consolidation and improving covid conditions in India. However, fears of the Fed’s monetary policy adjustments keep the pair buyers hopeful. Following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish performance the last Wednesday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard became the first independent US banker to back the rate hike views on Friday. The non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasted Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start next year. Even so, the US dollar index (DXY) marked the heaviest weekly jump in three months, currently around 92.30. Although the fears of the Fed’s action propel the greenback bulls, the recent slump in the US Treasury yields probes the DXY upside. The US 10-year Treasury yield drops six basis points (bps) to 1.389%, the lowest in four months whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows, near 1.96% by the press time. Read: US Treasury yields drop to early 2021 levels during three-day downtrend Also challenging the USD/INR bulls could be the recent recovery in India’s coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions. As per the latest numbers from the Health Minister, conveyed by Bloomberg, “India reports 53,256 daily rises in coronavirus infections, lowest since March 24, taking total to 29.94 million.” On the same line could be the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) rush to escalate the foreign exchange reserve to favor international trade. As per the latest monthly bulletin of RBI, India became the world’s fifth-largest reserve holding currency with $600 billion forex reserves, which further rose to $608.08 billion on June 11. While conveying the news, RBI also signaled, indirectly, of its move to escalate the reserve as saying, “This (forex reserves) will still cover less than 15 months of projected imports, against Switzerland's 39 months, Japan's 22 months, Russia's 20 months, and China's 16 months. Given the lack of major data and mixed catalysts, USD/INR may remain mildly bid around 74.30-25 ahead of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May, prior 0.24, as well as a speech from New York Fed President John C. Williams. Also in the pipeline is India’s Trade Deficit and Balance of Payment (BOP) data for Q1 2021. Technical analysis USD/INR bulls need a clear break of 74.30 to keep the recent upside momentum, else a pullback towards the 74.00 and then to 50-day SMA near 73.68 can’t be ruled out.  

GBP/USD continues to trade lower on Monday while trailing the previous seven session’s downside movement. The pair trades in a very narrow trade band

GBP/USD remains pressurized in the Asian session.US dollar Index stands at 10 weeks high at 92.33.GBP remains under pressure amid Brexit chaos and delayed economic reopeningGBP/USD continues to trade lower on Monday while trailing the previous seven session’s downside movement. The pair trades in a very narrow trade band before slipping below the 1.3800 mark. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3790, down 0.12% for the day. The US treasury yields continue to retreat after investors digested the Fed hawkish inflation and interest rates outlook. The yield curve flattens as the short term bond yields are rising more than the benchmark 10-year bond yields. The short term bond yields are more sensitive to the rate changes. The US Dollar Index (DXY)  stands strong, however it experiences minor pullback following the fall in US treasury yields. The US dollar also gains as the risk sentiment deteriorates with falling equities and commodity prices. It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,129, down 0.58%.  Market participants ditched sterling after the extended lockdown in the UK as the country failed to hold on to the existing plan of full economic reopening on June 21 due to rising corona cases. Meanwhile, the UK Retail Sales fell unexpectedly in May.  The headline inflation rate rose more than expected in May to the highest level since July 2019 and above the Bank of England (BOE) target of 2.0%. Brexit could unleash havoc on the UK steel industry as warned by Tories. The cheap foreign imports in the name of a free trade agreement between the UK and EU under Brexit protocol could harm the domestic steel manufacturers. This, in turn, soured the sentiment surrounding the sterling. In the absence of a strong macroeconomic catalyst, the dynamics around the US dollar continue to influence the pair’s performance in the near future. GBP/USD additional levels
 

S&P 500 Futures remain offered around 4,128, down 0.60% intraday, amid early Monday. The risk barometer bears the burden of downbeat US Treasury yield

S&P 500 Futures extend Friday’s drawdown to the fresh low since May 20.US 10-year, 30-year Treasury yields extend south-run to February levels.Fed rate hike fears join slump in US inflation expectations to weigh on the market’s mood.ECB, Fed policymakers’ speech eyed for fresh impulse.S&P 500 Futures remain offered around 4,128, down 0.60% intraday, amid early Monday. The risk barometer bears the burden of downbeat US Treasury yields, as well as the inflation expectations, amid a quiet start to the week. Both the key Treasury yield benchmarks of the US, namely 10-year and 30-year bonds, extend the early Asian south-run to a fresh low since February, suggesting a further flattening of the yield curve. That said, The US 10-year Treasury yield drops six basis points (bps) to 1.389%, the lowest in four months whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows, near 1.96% by the press time. It’s worth noting that the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), dropped to the lowest since early March, around 2.24%, by the end of Friday’s closing. Weigh on the Treasury yields and market sentiment could be comments from the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, published Friday, as he was the first US banker to cross the wires after the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The non-voting member of the Fed forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start next year. On a different page, a lack of progress over the US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending package, as well as fears of the covid’s Delta variant resurgence, also weigh on the market sentiment. The same risk-off mood also drowns Asia-Pacific equities with Nikkei 225 leading the losses by 3.30% intraday loss. Moving on, a lack of major data/events could keep markets directed towards the central bankers’ comments for fresh impulse. Hence, today’s speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and New York Fed President John C. Williams will be the key to follow.

EUR/USD fails to keep the early Asian corrective pullback as it refreshes intraday low with 1.1850 heading into Monday’s European session. The currenc

EUR/USD stays pressured around early April levels after the heaviest weekly fall in three months.US dollar shrugs off downbeat Treasury yields as rate hike chatters stay firm.ECB policymakers remain divided over PEPP extension, President Lagarde eyed.US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Fedspeak also become the key.EUR/USD fails to keep the early Asian corrective pullback as it refreshes intraday low with 1.1850 heading into Monday’s European session. The currency major pair initially bounced off the lowest since April 06 before reversing from 1.1876 as the US dollar regains upside momentum. In doing so, the greenback ignores the US Treasury yields, amid a risk-off mood. The US 10-year Treasury yield drops six basis points (bps) to 1.389%, the lowest in four months whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows, near 1.96% by the press time. While the US Treasury yields seem to bear the burden of declining inflation expectations, the US dollar index (DXY) remains on the front foot around early April levels after the heaviest weekly jump in three months. Behind the moves could be the escalating fears of the US Federal Reserve’s rate action and uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan. After the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), St. Louis Federal Reserve (Fed) President James Bullard forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start in next year. Although Bullard isn’t a voting member, his comments echo the FOMC dot-plot and strengthen the rate-hike woes. On the other hand, Reuters came out with the weekend update over infrastructure spending talks in the US Senate while signaling that the plan, “has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate, but disputes continued on Sunday over how it should be funded.” Also putting a safe-haven bid under the US dollar is the fear of the Delta variant of the covid and Brexit. Amid these plays, stock futures are down and the Asia-Pacific shares take the offers by the press time. It’s worth noted that the receding chatters over the ECB’s rate hike and monetary policy adjustments, backed by the latest comments from President Christine Lagarde, could also be linked to the EUR/USD pair’s recent losses. Moving on, comments from the ECB’s Lagarde will be closely observed for fresh impetus as the bloc’s central banker may drop hints for future monetary policy actions. Also important will be Chicago National Fed Activity Index for May, prior 0.24, as well as New York Fed President John C. Williams’ speech. As Fed’s Williams is the voting FOMC member and has favored the need for inaction, his shift towards the hawkish mood, if at all it is, will be exert additional downside pressure on the EUR/USD prices. Technical analysis A clear downside below the 1.2000-1990 area comprising 200-day SMA and multiple levels marked since early March, directs EUR/USD sellers to March 09 low of 1.1835 ahead of the 1.1800 threshold and an ascending support line from November 2020 close to 1.1760.  

NZD/USD recovers part of its previous day’s losses on Monday. The pair edges higher with 30 pips movement. As of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading

NZD/USD kick starts the week on a higher note.Price is still under 200-DMA indicating a challenge for the bulls comeback.Oversold MACD asks for the wait-and-watch approach before placing any directional bet.NZD/USD recovers part of its previous day’s losses on Monday. The pair edges higher with 30 pips movement. As of writing, the NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6965, up 0.46% for the day. NZD/USD daily chart On the daily chart, NZD/USD fell below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7041, which ignited a fresh round of selling in the pair.  After testing the levels, last seen in March, the pair bounce back from the lower levels. NZD/USD bulls would be encouraged to test the previous day’s high in the vicinity of the 0.7020 level on a sustained move above 0.6970. The price action suggests the 0.7050 horizontal resistance level as the next target for the bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades in the oversold zone, which signifies stretched selling conditions. It implies the possibility of NZD/USD claiming back the 0.7100 key psychological mark. Alternatively, if price breaks the intraday low of 0.6934, then it could continue with the prevailing downtrend.  In doing so, NZD/USD could go back to the levels last seen in 2020. The bears would be meeting the first target of 0.6917, a low made on 24 November 2020.  Next, the pair could approach the 0.6900 horizontal support level followed by November 19 low at 0.6878. 
NZD/USD additional levels  

Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne said that he wants bilateral negotiations with China, adding that their complaint to the World Trade Organiz

Australia’s Foreign Minister Marise Payne said that he wants bilateral negotiations with China, adding that their complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Beijing’s anti-dumping duties on wine exports should enable bilateral negotiations, per Reuters. Key quotes "What lodging the dispute enables us to do is begin dispute consultation settlements, which actually is a bilateral discussion with China about the issues.” "We've seen duties of over 200% applied to Australian wine. We don't believe that that is consistent with China's obligations under the WTO. So that part of the process enables us to have that direct conversation."

“We made good progress in shaping future monetary policy strategy,” the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said following the con

“We made good progress in shaping future monetary policy strategy,” the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said following the conclusion of a three-day meeting between the 25 members of the central bank’s Governing Council. "I am glad we were able to have in-depth discussions and we made good progress in shaping the concrete features of our future monetary policy strategy, Lagarde said. The Council spoke about the ECB’s role in combatting climate change while reviewing its monetary policy stance, including its inflation goal.   Market reaction The ECB comments have little to no impact on EUR/USD, as it continues to remain at the mercy of the dynamics in the yields and the US dollar. The spot was last seen trading at 1.1867, up 0.06% on the day.

US dollar index (DXY) picks up bids around 92.30, reverses early Asian losses, during Monday’s pre-European session trading. The greenback gauge jumpe

DXY bulls take a breather around 10-week top.Sustained break of 200-DMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement back upside momentum.Highs marked from early March probe buyers ahead of the yearly top.US dollar index (DXY) picks up bids around 92.30, reverses early Asian losses, during Monday’s pre-European session trading. The greenback gauge jumped to the highest since April 09 the previous day before stepping back from 92.40. Even so, the index keeps the latest week’s upside break of 200-day SMA (DMA) and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-May declines amid the firmer Momentum line. The same joins the rush to risk-safety that puts a safe-haven bid under the US dollar to keep the DXY on the bull’s radar. However, a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since early Mach, around 92.50-55, becomes a tough nut to crack for the USD bulls before targeting the yearly high of 93.43. During the run-up, the 92.90 and the 93.00 threshold may also act as short-term resistances. Meanwhile, pullback moves may initial aim for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 91.95 before challenging the 91.50-48 support confluence including 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Even if the DXY drops below 91.48, March’s low near 91.30 can act as an extra filter to the south. DXY daily chart Trend: Bullish  

The cross is on the verge of completing a significant correction if it has not already done so in the meeting structure. Daily chart A break of the re

EUR/CHF bears are lurking at daily resistance structure.The bulls could be in for one final push to test the bear's commitments. The cross is on the verge of completing a significant correction if it has not already done so in the meeting structure.  Daily chart A break of the resistance will be a crucial development in the bulls case for further gains.  1-hour chart However, at this juncture, the focus is on the downside to restest the old resistance to the downside. 

AUD/USD bulls ignore downbeat Aussie data as attacking the intraday high of 0.7512 amid the early Monday’s trading. In doing so, the Aussie pair keeps

AUD/USD keeps early Asian recovery following the key data/events.Preliminary Aussie Retail Sales for May drops below 0.7% market consensus, PBOC keep benchmark rate unchanged near 3.85%.Market sentiment remains sluggish, US Treasury yields drop to three-month low.Second-tier US data, Fedspeak eyed for fresh impulse.AUD/USD bulls ignore downbeat Aussie data as attacking the intraday high of 0.7512 amid the early Monday’s trading. In doing so, the Aussie pair keeps the early Asian recovery moves, amid the broad US dollar pullback, while snapping a four-day downtrend with a 0.42% intraday upside. Australia’s first reading of May’s Retail Sales eased below 0.7% forecast and 1.1% MoM prior to 0.1%, justifying the market fears of the negative economic impact of Victoria’s snap lockdown. Also, on the same line could be the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged near 3.85% despite recently suggesting the pause in the further easy monetary policy. It’s worth noting that the US dollar index (DXY) steps back from the 10-week top amid a downbeat performance of the US Treasury yields, helping the AUD/USD prices to remain firm by the press time. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop to the lowest since early March, down 3.4 basis points (bps) to 1.41%, while tracking the US inflation expectations to the south. Read: US Treasury yields drop to early 2021 levels during three-day downtrend Given the US dollar’s consolidation of the recent gains, coupled with downbeat bond yields, equities in Asia-Pacific remain on the back foot with Japan’s Nikkei 225 being the biggest loser, down 3.22% intraday by the time of the press whereas S&P 500 Futures drop 0.30% on a day. While cheering USD pullback, the AUD/USD pair ignores downbeat market sentiment as well as chatters relating to the Pacific major’s push to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for saving it from China’s tariffs. Also on the same side could be the global fears of the covid’s Delta variant and uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending package. Having witnessed an initial reaction to the Asian session’s key data/events, AUD/USD traders will keep their eyes on the Fedspeak and Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May, prior 0.24, for fresh impulse. Should the Fed policymakers remain hawkish, the US dollar rebound can’t be ruled out, which in turn will challenge the Aussie pair’s latest recovery moves. Technical analysis 200-day SMA level near 0.7555-60, followed by the previous support line from December around 0.7580, restricts short-term AUD/USD upside, which in turn keeps the bear directed to August 2020 top near 0.7420-15.  

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been released as follows: Retail Sales (M/M) May P 0.1% (est 0.4%; prev 1.1%). Th

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics has been released as follows: Retail Sales (M/M) May P 0.1% (est 0.4%; prev 1.1%). The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. Analysts at Westpac said prior to the data that there was renewed COVID turbulence following Victoria's move into a 14-day lockdown. ''That said, this occurred late in the month and was preceded by a lift in 'stockpiling' spending in the state.''  

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision remains unchanged at 3.85%

China Leaves One-Year Loan Prime Rate Unchanged At 3.85% As Expected - China Leaves Five-Year Loan Prime Rate Unchanged At 4.65% As Expected More to c

China leaves one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.85% as expected. China leaves five-year loan prime rate unchanged at 4.65% as expected. More to come...

Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.7%) in May: Actual (0.1%)

US Treasury bond yields remain pressured for the third consecutive day amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the risk gauge tracks the US inflatio

US 10-year Treasury yield drops to March 03 levels, 30-year T-bond yield revisits mid-February lows.Slump in US Inflation expectations weighs on the bond yields.Fed rate hike concerns also weigh on the risk barometer.US Treasury bond yields remain pressured for the third consecutive day amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the risk gauge tracks the US inflation expectations while also justifying the fears over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish mood, conveyed during the last week. The US 10-year Treasury yield drops three basis points (bps) to 1.42%, the lowest since March 03 whereas the 30-year bond yield extends the previous two-day south-run to the mid-February lows surrounding 2.0%. On the same line, the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, drop to the lowest since early March levels, around 2.24% by the press time. Behind the moves could be the escalating chatters over the Fed’s rate hike and uncertainty concerning US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure relief package. Having heard the upward revision of the Fed’s economic forecasts and increasing support for two rate hikes in 2023, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start in next year. Its’ worth noting that Reuters came out with the weekend update over infrastructure spending talks in the US Senate while signaling that the plan, “has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate, but disputes continued on Sunday over how it should be funded.” Elsewhere, fears of the Delta variant of the covid and Brexit also weigh on the market sentiment. Amid these plays, Nikkei drops the most since early May to lead Asian markets towards the south whereas the S&P 500 Futures print 0.20% intraday losses by the press time. Given the lack of major data/events, the risk appetite is likely to remain sour ahead of the US session when the Chicago Fed activity data and Fedspeak may offer fresh direction to the market. Read: Post-Fed Markets: What to expect next?

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4546 (est 6.4518; prev 6.4361). About the fix China ma

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4546 vs the estimated 6.4518 and the previous 6.4361. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

EUR/GBP sellers attack nearby support line while taking offers around 0.8588 during Monday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair kept Friday’s U-tu

EUR/GBP marks another failure to cross 0.8600, teases two-day-old support line.Downward sloping RSI backs U-turn from the key moving average, resistance line.EUR/GBP sellers attack nearby support line while taking offers around 0.8588 during Monday’s Asian session. The cross-currency pair kept Friday’s U-turn during the early day before reversing from 0.85990. In doing so, the quote reversed from 200-HMA and a descending resistance line from June 10. Given the receding strength of the RSI line and a pullback from the key hurdles, EUR/GBP prices may drop below the immediate support line from Thursday, near 0.8590, which in turn could extend the recent declines toward a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since June 11 around 0.8568. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s weakness past 0.8568 won’t hesitate to attack the monthly low near 0.8540. Meanwhile, buyers could return on the upside break of the stated resistance line near the 0.8600 threshold whereas the 200-HMA level of 0.8591 can offer resistance. If at all the EUR/GBP run-up crosses the 0.8600 mark, 0.8630 and the monthly high near 0.8645 will be in focus. EUR/GBP hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

AUD/JPY edges higher on Monday to begin the new trading week with a positive note. The pair opened in the vicinity of the previous session’s low near

AUD/JPY prints gains on Monday in the Asian session.Pair seems to halt the previous week’s decline near 82.40.Momentum oscillator holds onto the negative zone with oversold conditions.AUD/JPY edges higher on Monday to begin the new trading week with a positive note. The pair opened in the vicinity of the previous session’s low near the 82.40 level and touched a high of 82.75, where it waivers now. AUD/JPY daily chart On the daily chart, the AUD/JPY price has formed a double bottom formation near the 82.40 mark, which is a bullish formation. A sustained move above the intraday high at 82.75 could further push the pair higher in the territory of the 83.20 horizontal resistance level. Next, AUD/JPY bulls would like to retest the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 83.71. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator reads below 50 with stretched selling opportunities. An uptick in the RSI coupled with a break of the above mentioned 100-day SMA would open the possibility of the high of June 17 at 84.62 for the bulls. Alternatively, if price moves lower then it could bring the levels last seen in March back into the picture. The cross shall look out for the March 1 low in the vicinity of the 82.10 area. A break below the 82.00 key psychological level would open the gates for the February 18 low at 81.82 followed by the 81.45 horizontal support level. AUD/JPY additional levels  

Early Monday, the market sees preliminary readings of the Australia Retail Sales for May month at 01:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a downbeat MoM

Retail Sales overview Early Monday, the market sees preliminary readings of the Australia Retail Sales for May month at 01:30 GMT. Market consensus suggests a downbeat MoM print of 0.7% versus 1.0% prior readings. Despite the upbeat Aussie inflation and employment data, RBA policymakers refrain from conveying the much-awaited bullish bias, which in turn highlights today’s Aussie Retail Sales data as an extra catalyst for the Oz nation’s activity report. Also joining the release is the monetary policy meeting decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Ahead of the release Reuters’ survey said, “China’s benchmark lending rate is set to remain unchanged at its June fixing on Monday, but there are growing expectations of an interest rate rise in China after the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone.” Westpac expects a 0.5% mark ahead of the release while saying, The backdrop for May retail sales (11:30 am Sydney/9:30 am Singapore) will be renewed COVID turbulence following Victoria's move into a 14-day lockdown. That said, this occurred late in the month and was preceded by a lift in 'stockpiling' spending in the state. Our Westpac Card Tracker suggests Victoria's lockdown only impacted in early June. The card data for May was on the softer side but is a bit hard to interpret due to changes in the timing of Easter. How could it affect AUD/USD? AUD/USD consolidates recent losses amid a pullback in the US dollar while taking the bids around 0.7500, up 0.40% intraday, ahead of the stated events. In doing so, the risk barometer ignores mild losses of S&P 500 Futures and the third day of downside by the US 10-year Treasury yields. Given the RBA’s cautious mood, coupled with a period comprising the snap lockdown in Victoria, the upcoming Retail Sales may test the latest recovery moves. It’s worth noting that the concerns over the Fed’s rate hike and tapering will join the broad rush to the risk safety towards the US dollar to keep the AUD/USD sellers hopeful even if the Aussie data print bullish signs. Technically, unless crossing 200-day SMA level near 0.7555-60, not to forget the previous support line from December around 0.7580, AUD/USD prices remain directed to August 2020 top near 0.7420-15. Key Notes AUD/USD consolidates losses around 0.7500, Aussie Retail Sales, PBOC eyed AUD/USD Forecast: No signs of bottoming despite extreme oversold conditions About Australian Retail Sales The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. About PBOC Interest Rate Decision The PBoC Interest Rate Decision is announced by the People´s Bank of China. If the PBoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the CNY. Likewise, if the PBoC has a dovish view on the Chinese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is negative, or bearish.

The following illustrates how the bulls are taking charge and the potential of a significant upside correction. The bulls have stepped in and taken th

AUD/USD bulls are back to the table and target a daily 38.2% Fibo. The hourly chart's near term, resistance is the first port of call. The following illustrates how the bulls are taking charge and the potential of a significant upside correction.  The bulls have stepped in and taken the price up to meet the prior hourly highs.  This now leaves a bullish case on the table and a W-formation that would be expected to hamstring the initial bullish attempts at the old support structure.  AUD/USD consolidates losses around 0.7500, Aussie Retail Sales, PBOC eyed Daily chart The bulls can target a confluence of the prior support structure and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. 

Silver (XAG/USD) portrays a corrective pullback while taking rounds to $25.95, up 0.53% intraday, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white

Silver bounces off the lowest levels in two months.Further consolidation of recent losses envisioned on bullish candlestick formation above the key SMA.Tops marked in early April, late March add to the downside filters.Silver (XAG/USD) portrays a corrective pullback while taking rounds to $25.95, up 0.53% intraday, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white metal justifies Friday’s trend reversal candlestick formation above 200-day SMA (DMA). Although the latest recovery eyes to regain the $26.00 round figure, a three-month-old horizontal resistance around $26.65 will test the silver bulls afterward. Also acting as the upside filter is the $27.15-20 area comprising multiple levels marked since early May. On the flip side, a daily closing below the 200-DMA level of $25.72 will be probed by April 08 high near $25.60. However, a clear downside past $25.60 won’t hesitate to conquer the $25.00 threshold while targeting the $24.45-50 area including late-March and early April levels, a break of which will direct silver bears to the yearly low of $23.77. Silver daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

USD/CHF remains muted in the initial Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair posted a stellar performance in the previous week while touching the mul

USD/CHF is in consolidation mode after a stellar performance in the previous week.The US dollar index remains above the 92.20 mark.CHF loses grounds on SNB’s dovish outlook despite higher inflation expectations. USD/CHF  remains muted in the initial Asian trading hours on Monday.  The pair posted a stellar performance in the previous week while touching the multi-month highs near 0.9240. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9222, down 0.01% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, remains strong at 92.24. The gains in the USD traced back to the Fed’s surprise action in which the central bank raised its inflation forecast and two rate hikes in 2023. Meanwhile, the US authorities have extended travel restrictions at Canada and Mexico land borders until at least July 21. In addition to that,  the US wants to finalize the nuclear deal with Iran before the new hardline president takes over charge. Western officials have warned that negotiations to revive its nuclear deal could not continue indefinitely after Iran announced a break following the elections in the country. This, in turn, heightened the market volatility, which benefited the US dollar. Market participants remained unfazed by the much anticipated move of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which kept its ultra accommodative monetary policy unchanged.  As for now, the dynamics around the US dollar continue to influence the pair’s performance for the time being. USD/CHF additional levels
 

GBP/JPY consolidates recent losses around 152.30, up 0.10% intraday, as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. In doing so, the pair rises for th

GBP/JPY bounces off the lowest levels in six weeks.Downbeat US Treasury yields weigh on the Japanese yen, UK’s Brexit, covid woes defend bears.89% of Japanese concerned over covid resurgence if Olympics, Paralympics staged this summer.Risk catalysts, Fedspeak become the key amid a light calendar.GBP/JPY consolidates recent losses around 152.30, up 0.10% intraday, as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. In doing so, the pair rises for the first time in the last five days as the Japanese yen (JPY) bears the burden of the downbeat US Treasury yields amid a lackluster session. The US 10-year Treasury yields remain pressured for the third consecutive day, tracking the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, by the press time. The risk barometer seems to justify the market’s rate hike expectations following the last week’s US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. It’s worth noting that fresh clues suggesting fewer odds to keep the UK’s virus-led lockdown beyond July 05, per the Sky News, adds to the GBP/JPY pair’s strength. Furthermore, polls from Japan’s Kyodo news, showing 86% of people are concerned about a rebound in COVID-19 cases if the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics are staged this summer add to the pair’s recent strength. It should, however, be observed that the pair buyers are cautious ahead of this week’s Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting and also weigh the Brexit deadlock to hesitate in conveying the bullish bias. On the same side could be the news showing the spike in the UK’s covid infections, mainly relating to the Delta variant. Talking about the data, the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index for June jumped above 2.1% YoY to 7.5% and offered an extra strength to the GBP/JPY upside. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.12% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 begins Monday’s trading with around 2.0% losses, tracking Friday’s Wall Street performance. Moving on, a lack of major data/events could keep GBP/JPY traders clueless, which in turn highlights the covid and Fed updates as the key catalysts. Technical analysis Multiple levels since March restrict short-term GBP/JPY declines around the 152.00 threshold, breaking which an ascending trend line from mid-February, near 151.45, could test the pair sellers. It should, however, be noted that the bulls aren’t likely to risk entries until the quote stays below April’s top surrounding 153.40.  

EUR/USD extends late Friday’s recovery towards 1.1900, up 0.10% around 1.1875, during Monday Asian session. In doing so, the currency major portrays a

EUR/USD bounces off early April lows, refreshes intraday high of late.RSI recovery from oversold area backs bullish chart pattern’s confirmation.Previous support line, 200-HMA adds to the upside filters.EUR/USD extends late Friday’s recovery towards 1.1900, up 0.10% around 1.1875, during Monday Asian session. In doing so, the currency major portrays a bullish chart pattern, falling wedge, near the lowest levels since April 08. Given the RSI’s U-turn from oversold territory gaining support from the strong Momentum line, EUR/USD may extend the corrective pullback towards the 1.1900 threshold. However, the stated formation’s resistance line near 1.1885 becomes an immediate hurdle to cross. Although falling wedge breakout gains momentum near the multi-day low, if broken, a descending resistance line from June 11 near 1.1960 could probe the bulls holding the theoretical target over the 1.2000 psychological magnet. It’s worth noting that the EUR/USD buyers will remain cautious unless witnessing a clear break of the 200-HMA level around 1.2085. Alternatively, the recent low near 1.1850 and the stated pattern’s support line close to 1.1825 could test the pair sellers during the fresh downside. In a case where EUR/USD bears keep the reins below 1.1825, the 1.1800 round figure and the yearly bottom near 1.1705 will be on their radars. EUR/USD hourly chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

A stronger USD following the Federal Reserve hawkish tone kept the commodities complex down and weighed n precious metals. Gold experienced heavy sell

Gold is correcting the recent US dollar strength. Bulls can target a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ton the daily chart and confluence of old support. A stronger USD following the Federal Reserve hawkish tone kept the commodities complex down and weighed n precious metals.  Gold experienced heavy selling, with the precious metal closing below $1,800/oz and ending down by 0.52% at $1,764.23 ranging between a low of $1,761.04 and $1,797.31. The US dollar extended its advance against a basket of currencies in a classic short squeeze as it built on gains logged after the US Federal Reserve surprised markets earlier in the week with a hawkish hold. The dollar index DXY, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was printing its highest levels since mid-April at 92.4050 which put the index on pace for its best weekly jump in about 14 months. Risk appetite is lower and US stocks are under pressure as the Fed has signalled that it will raise interest rates and end emergency bond-buying sooner than expected. ''Considering that gold was set-up for a pullback like a speed bump on the racetrack, with speculative and physical flows slowing, the ongoing pullback likely has more room to run.,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''CTAs can add to their shorts below $1730/oz, which suggests some potential for sustained downside momentum.'' Meanwhile, the screw was turned on Friday when St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that the US central bank's toward a faster tightening of monetary policy was a "natural" response to economic growth and particularly inflation moving quicker than expected. In this regard, on a quieter week ahead in terms of data, the emphasis will be on the shorter end of the US yield curve which is dollar positive. This may help to push gold below critical weekly support where the counter trendline meets that late April weekly prices, May highs and Nov lows in horizontal structure in the $1,760s.  Gold technical analysis The daily chart shows that the price is on the verge of a weekly bullish Head and Shoulders with the first upside target coming with a confluence of the prior lows and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.  

AUD/USD buyers poke the 0.7500 threshold, up 0.30% intraday, as traders consolidate recent losses ahead of Monday’s key events in Asia. The uptick in

AUD/USD bounces off yearly low, snaps four-day losing streak to refresh intraday high.Aussie-China tussles, Fed rate concerns probe buyers, mildly bid S&P 500 Futures favors corrective pullback.US Treasury yields, inflation expectations become the key.Preliminary reading of Aussie Retail Sales for May, PBOC rate decision will offer immediate direction.AUD/USD buyers poke the 0.7500 threshold, up 0.30% intraday, as traders consolidate recent losses ahead of Monday’s key events in Asia. The uptick in stock futures and the pre-data jitters back the latest corrective pullback in the Aussie prices around yearly low. However, the bears remain hopeful amid the Fed’s rate-hike concerns and the recent Aussie-China tussles. S&P 500 Futures bounce off monthly low, up 0.16% around 4,148, as market players await more clues from the Fed to confirm the rate hike or tapering concerns triggered the last week. Also supporting the risk-barometer could be the chatters relating to US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending and Asia-Pacific nations’ recovery from the pandemic. Even so, the US dollar index (DXY) stays bid on the safe-haven demand, backed by the downbeat US Treasury yields and the US inflation expectations. The early signals of the US inflation expectations, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, dropped to the lowest since early March on Friday. The reason could be traced from the comments of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who forecasts Core PCE at 3.0% for 2021 and 2.5% for 2022 while backing the tapering to start in next year. Earlier last week, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) revised up inflation and growth forecasts while also unveiled the policymakers’ bullish bias on rates via the dot-plot. The same triggered speculations of the Fed’s much-awaited monetary policy consolidation. It’s worth noting that Australia’s run-up to complain the World Trade Organization (WTO) over China’s imposition of tariffs on the country's wine should have also weighed on the AUD/USD prices, but didn’t. Additionally, fears of the Delta variant of the covid and uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending bill are extra negatives for the quote. Even so, AUD/USD traders seem optimistic ahead of the preliminary readings of May month’s Retail Sales, expected 0.7% versus 1.0% prior, as well as a monetary policy decision of the People’s Bank of China. While Aussie data may portray the effects of a snap lockdown, PBOC could keep its status quo and battle the pair bears. Following that Fed policymakers’ comments during the US session may provide clearer directions to the pair traders. Technical analysis Unless crossing 200-day SMA level near 0.7555-60, not to forget previous support line from December around 0.7580, AUD/USD prices remain directed to August 2020 top near 0.7420-15.  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) increased to 7.5% in June from previous 2.1%

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) down to 0.8% in June from previous 1.8%

GBP/USD bears take a breather around 1.3800, following the heaviest weekly fall since September 2020, amid a quiet Asian session on Monday. While the

GBP/USD kick-starts the key week by challenging bears around mid-April lows. Brexit drama continues, Delta variant weighs on UK’s economic optimism but Fitch revised up BOE outlook.US dollar remains firm amid rate hike concerns.Fedspeak becomes the key amid a lack of major data/events.GBP/USD bears take a breather around 1.3800, following the heaviest weekly fall since September 2020, amid a quiet Asian session on Monday. While the broad US dollar strength, mainly due to the Fed rate hike concerns, could be cited as the key catalyst behind the cable’s recent weakness, Brexit deadlock and a spike in the UK’s cases concerning Delta variant of the covid also weigh on the quote. Even so, the pair traders await this week’s Bank of England (BOE) meeting for fresh clues. Friday’s comments from the St. Louis Fed President Bullard were the first post-FOMC comments by US central bankers which kept rate hike concerns on the table. Earlier in the week, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) early signals for the Fed rate hike and bond purchase tapering triggered a rush to risk-safety and propelled the US dollar index (DXY) the most in three months. On the other hand, the European Union (EU) and the UK keep battling over the Brexit issue, mainly concerning the Northern Ireland (NI) border, as policymakers push Britain to keep its word while signed the earlier Brexit deal. The deadlock hardens life in Ireland and hence the looming concerns weigh on the GBP/USD as it becomes London’s responsibility to help Irish voters who backed UK PM Boris Johnson. Elsewhere, the Delta variant keeps troubling the UK policymakers even if they’re optimistic over the economic trajectory and have already announced a one-month delay to the unlock from the original June 21 deadline. The +10,000 covid infections for the third day and 79% rise in Delta strain cases push the UK’s scientists to predict a third wave of the virus. However, The Sky quotes Brendan Wren, Professor of vaccinology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, while mentioning that having more than 81% of the adult population with a first coronavirus jab, and 59% with both doses is "very encouraging". It’s worth noting that the weekend news from Reuters relating to the global rating agency Fitch’s upward revision to the BOE’s outlook also favors GBP/USD to probe bears. “Fitch Ratings has revised the Bank of England's (BoE) Outlook to Stable from Negative, while affirming the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LTFC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'AA-',” said the news. Amid these plays, risk barometers like the stock futures and bond yields remain pressured and keep the US dollar bid. However, pre-BOE caution seems to restrict the GBP/USD downside. Given the light calendar on Monday, as well as chatters over the Fed rate hike, the Fedspeak will be the key. However, Thursday’s BOE will be crucial for GBP/USD as traders awaited policymakers’ confirmation over tapering, which if announced could reverse the latest losses. Technical analysis A clear downside break of the 100-day EMA and an ascending trend line from December 2020, respectively around 1.3900 and 1.3985, directs GBP/USD towards late January 2021 tops surrounding 1.3760.  

AUD/NZD prints some mild gains on the first day of the fresh trading week. The pair confides in a very narrow trade band and swings back and forth in

AUD/NZD struggles to find directional strength in the Asian session.Additional gains possible for the pair, if price decisively breaks 1.0800.Momentum oscillator throws caution for aggressive bids.AUD/NZD prints some mild gains on the first day of the fresh trading week. The pair confides in a very narrow trade band and swings back and forth in the known territories. As of writing, AUD/NZD trades at 1.0789 with 0.07% gains for the day. AUD/NZD 60-minute chart On the 60-minute chart, the AUD/NZD currency pair moves in a rising channel, while bulls face upside pressure near 1.0805. AUD/NZD bulls remain hopeful as long price sustains above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0783.  That said if price breaks above the session’s high at 1.0796 then a potential upside toward the previous day’s high at 1.0814 can not be ruled out. This also coincides with the upper trading line of the channel. In doing so, there is plenty of room for the pair to test the levels last seen in April. The first in line would be the April 20 high at 1.0825 followed by the 1.0851 mark touched on April 19. Alternatively, the receding Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signals some negative bias in the price. Any downtick in the MACD could bring sellers back into action. AUD/NZD bears would target the 1.0775 horizontal support level, while keeping an eye on June 17 low at 1.0743. The next area support could be located at the June 8 low at 1.0714. AUD/NZD additional levels  

Oil prices fell for a second day early on Friday with the greenback extending its gains across both the forex board and the commodities space in gener

Oil prices are retesting the counter trendline, ignoring dollar strength. Bears may well gather in numbers below current hourly support.Demand dominates while energy bulls step over dollar strength. Oil prices fell for a second day early on Friday with the greenback extending its gains across both the forex board and the commodities space in general. However, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil started to rise later in the day and was ending Friday higher by over 0.5% despite the strength in the US dollar.  Spot WTI rose from a low of $70.18 to a high of $72.14 ending the day at $71.41. As for futures, WTI crude for July delivery settled up US$0.60 to US$71.64 per barrel. At the time of writing, WTI is trading 0.35% hitherto 471.66 from the lows of $71.41 and has reached a high of $71.71 so far on the session. The markets are consolidating last week's action that followed the Federal Reserve's switch to a more hawkish monetary policy on expectations of higher demand.  Amid controlled supply from the OPEC+ group and holidays as a big majority of the global population emerges from lockdown, oil demand is recovering from pandemic lows as gasoline and aviation fuel use rise. Stemming the advance, however, could be blamed on US oil production prospects with the Baker-Hughes weekly rig count advancing. Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a Summer Breakout to unfold as a global vaccination rollout drives mobility sharply higher this summer, while OPEC's cautious plan to raise output should tighten the market with considerable deficits expected in the coming months. ''In this context, our gauge of energy supply risk continues to trend higher, with supply artificially constrained amid lingering negotiations with Iran and a cautious OPEC+. However, this set-up should drain oil inventories towards the critical benchmarks set by the 2015-19 average levels by July, which could prompt OPEC+ to ramp up the pace on the unwind of their deal.'' WTI technical analysis Technically, the price has pierced below the dynamic daily trendline support and has retested it as a counter trendline.  The bulls stepped in at the 8th June range and old resistance will come back under pressure this week if the bulls cannot regain territory above the daily counter trendline. 72.41 is important in this regard.  From an hourly perspective, the price could be on the verge of an additional retest, the bearish bias persists, especially below the 21-EMA and 38.2% Fibo confluence of support. 
 

USD/CAD consolidates Friday’s heavy gains with a recent decline to 1.2450 amid the initial Asian session on Monday. Even so, the Loonie pair keeps the

USD/CAD steps back from two-month top, fades Friday’s trend line breakout below another hurdle.Key trend line break, bullish MACD favor buyers.50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-DMA adds to the upside filters.USD/CAD consolidates Friday’s heavy gains with a recent decline to 1.2450 amid the initial Asian session on Monday. Even so, the Loonie pair keeps the previous day’s breakout of the key resistance line, now the immediate support, from October 2020. Given the bullish MACD and the pair’s sustained trading above the previously important resistance, USD/CAD traders may ignore the latest weakness in the prices until the quote stays above the stated trend line around 1.2390. It’s worth noting that 1.2320 and 1.2270 are extra filters to the pair’s downside below the previous resistance line. Meanwhile, the fresh upside will aim for a downward sloping trend line from January 28, near 1.2485. However, any further rise needs to cross the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of September 2020 to June 2021 downside, around 1.2550. Though, a convergence of 200-day SMA (DMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 1.2705-10, will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls afterward. Overall, USD/CAD bulls seem tiring of late but the bears need confirmation for fresh entry. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

USD/JPY continues to move in the upward direction, a trend set in the second week of June. After making a low at 107.47 in late April, the pair is ris

USD/JPY dips from the recent highs of 110.82 but remains elevated.US Dollar continues to scale higher post-FOMC and market uncertainties.Yen limits losses on its safe haven appeal despite BOJ no show.USD/JPY continues to move in the upward direction, a trend set in the second week of June. After making a low at 107.47 in late April, the pair is rising steadily with YTD in focus.  At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading at 110.23, up 0.04% for the day. The move is primarily sponsored by the appreciation of the US dollar. The greenback stands at 92.30, the levels last seen in April. The previous week counted as the best week in terms of gains for USD since March 2020. The Fed surprised the market on Wednesday by raising the inflation forecast and two rate hikes in 2023. Investors rushed to the US dollar in the wake of higher interest rate expectations, while equities and commodities tumbled. Meanwhile, the US 10-year benchmark yields edge lower at 1.44% with 0.48% losses. The fall in the long-dated bond yields limits the gains for USD/JPY. On the other hand, the Japanese yen came under pressure after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) extended its pandemic-relief program till September, which is an extension of six months. The move reflects the problem in the pace of economic recovery as the country lags behind the developed nations in containing the COVID-19. In the economic docket, investors will have the opportunity to react to the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May) and Fed’s William’s speech. USD/JPY additional levels
 

Early Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the latest updates from the US Homeland Security Department, conveyed on Sunday, suggesting the la

Early Monday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the latest updates from the US Homeland Security Department, conveyed on Sunday, suggesting the land borders with Canada and Mexico will remain closed to non-essential travel until at least July 21. “The 30-day extension came after Canada announced its own extension on Friday of the requirements that were set to expire on Monday and have been in place since March 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic,” adds Reuters. It should, however, be noted that the US Homeland Security also mentioned, per Reuters, that it noted "positive developments in recent weeks and is participating with other U.S. agencies in the White House’s expert working groups with Canada and Mexico to identify the conditions under which restrictions may be eased safely and sustainably." FX reaction… The news should ideally weigh on the market sentiment and add to the safe-haven demand of the US dollar while also negatively affecting the USD/CAD prices. Read: USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: The long decline ends

Reuters provided an update over the White House negotiations on US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan during the weekend while sug

Reuters provided an update over the White House negotiations on US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan during the weekend while suggesting the plan, “has been gaining support in the U.S. Senate, but disputes continued on Sunday over how it should be funded.” After cutting the total outlay to the fourth of what originally proposed, US President Biden told reporters, per Reuters, last week to have a response to the plan as soon as Monday. However, the same is unlikely to be delivered considering the current progress. “Twenty-one of the 100 U.S. senators - including 11 Republicans, nine Democrats and one independent who caucuses with Democrats - are working on the framework to rebuild roads, bridges and other traditional infrastructure that sources said would cost $1.2 trillion over eight years,” added Reuters. The news also mentions that Senate Budget Committee Chairman Bernie Sanders was unclear, on CNN's "State of the Union" and NBC's "Meet the Press", about whether he could support the bipartisan plan even if the tough area like indexing the gas tax to inflation were removed. In a piece of separate news, also conveyed by Reuters, the White House said on Sunday it saw as an "interesting signal" North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's comments that he is ready for "dialogue and confrontation," but added that Washington was still waiting for direct communication from Pyongyang to start any talks relating to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. FX implications While North Korean news could be cited as the risk-positive, it has a little importance of late versus the US stimulus talks and hence an extended deadlock over the spending talks could exert additional downside pressure on the market’s sentiment. That said, the early Asian session saw the Antipodeans extending the previous day’s downside momentum near the yearly low. Read: NZD/USD: Bears flirt with seven-month low above 0.6900 amid broad USD strength

NZD/USD struggles to overcome the yearly bottom, taking rounds to 0.6930-40, amid the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair remain

NZD/USD sellers take a breather after the heaviest weekly fall since September 2020.Fed’s Bullard offered extra strength to USD’s post-Fed upside.West versus China story, fears of Delta variant add to the risk-off mood.Aussie Retail Sales, PBOC can offer intermediate moves, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations are the key to watch.NZD/USD struggles to overcome the yearly bottom, taking rounds to 0.6930-40, amid the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair remains indecisive after posting the heaviest weekly drop in nine months, not to forget dropping for the third consecutive weeks, to test the lowest levels since November 2020. Fed fuelled DXY the most in three months… The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) much-awaited June meeting played the key role in portraying the biggest US dollar index (DXY) run-up since March. After initially cheering the Fed’s upwardly revised dot-plot and economic forecasts, suggesting fears ahead, the greenback gauge benefited from the rate hike comments by the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. In his latest comments, Fed’s Bullard said, he sees a case for rates to rise next year. “St Louis Fed President Bullard was the first post-FOMC meeting speaker and wasted no time in advocating his recent more hawkish views. He said he forecast core PCE at 3.0% for the end of this year and 2.5% for the end of 2022, which he believes would justify a rate tightening cycle starting late next year,” per the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ). Despite being a non-voting Fed member, the comments were the first from the US banker and hence triggered the rush to risk-safety, which in turn put a bid under the USD. That said, the DXY refreshed the highest levels since early April whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 6.8 basis points to 1.44%, the pre-Fed meeting levels. It’s worth noting that the escalation in the tussles between the Western friends, including the US, the UK and Australia, with China adds to the downside pressure on the NZD/USD prices as Auckland also witnesses souring relations with its top-tier customer of late. Additionally, fears of the Delta variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and sluggish growth over talks of US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan also weigh on the risk appetite and to Antipodeans. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events at home requires NZD/USD traders to keep their eyes on Australia’s preliminary Retail Sales for May, 0.7% expected versus 1.1% prior, as well as monetary policy meeting of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), no changes expected, for fresh impulse. Although both these events are less likely to reverse the current downtrend of the pair, moves of the US Treasury yields and the US dollar should be watched closely for clear direction. Technical analysis A daily close below the year’s bottom surrounding 0.6945-40 enables the NZD/USD bears to aim for September 2020 tops surrounding 0.6800. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to cross the 0.7000 threshold for short-term life ahead of confronting the 200-day SMA level of 0.7042 for further ruling.  
Scroll Top