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منگل، 31 مارچ، 2020

This downturn is different from others in our lifetimes, but making investment decisions based on informed forecasts for the economy and earnings shou

This downturn is different from others in our lifetimes, but making investment decisions based on informed forecasts for the economy and earnings should still work well, according to Lisa Shalett from JP Morgan Asset Management. Key quotes “I expect stock market leadership to shift from the consumer-facing tech giants that dominated markets to sectors such as healthcare, financials, and industrials.”  “We expect corporate earnings to mirror the economic recession, but worse. Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson believes that average profits for the companies that comprise the S&P 500 broad market benchmark could decline by 40% to 50% in the second quarter and up to 20% for the full year.” “Given that markets typically trade-off of future expectations, it’s not too early for investors to start positioning their portfolios now.”  

The XAU/USD pair closed the first day of the week virtually unchanged near $1,620 and turned south on Tuesday pressured by the relatively upbeat marke

US Dollar Index continues to erase last week's losses.Major European equity indexes post modest gains on Tuesday.Focus shifts to CB Consumer Confidence Index data from US.The XAU/USD pair closed the first day of the week virtually unchanged near $1,620 and turned south on Tuesday pressured by the relatively upbeat market mood and the broad USD strength. As of writing, the pair was trading near $1,600, erasing $21.5, or 1.33%, on the day. The sharp rebound witnessed in the Chinese PMI data for both the manufacturing and the service sectors in March revived hopes of a "V-shaped recovery" in the global economy. The improved market sentiment seems to be making it tough for gold to find demand as a safe-haven. As of writing, Germany's DAX 30 was up around 0.4% on the day while the Euro Stoxx 50 and the UK's FTSE 100 were adding 0.2% and 0.7%, respectively. USD stays strong ahead of key data Meanwhile, ahead of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index from the US, the US Dollar Index is climbing higher toward the critical 100 handle to reflect the broad-based USD strength. Previewing the data, "consumers, especially the vast majority who remain employed, can be expected to pull back sharply on spending in the next few weeks,"  said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet. "If nothing else, their isolation will obviate a whole range of normal incidental and discretionary expenditures." Technical levels to watch for  

The increasing selling bias in the European currency is forcing EUR/JPY to shed further ground and break below 119.00 the figure on Tuesday. EUR/JPY m

Daily gains in EUR/JPY faltered around 119.70 on Tuesday.Japan plans to pump in around ¥60 trillion to fight COVID-19.EMU’s flash CPI seen rising 0.5% MoM during March.The increasing selling bias in the European currency is forcing EUR/JPY to shed further ground and break below 119.00 the figure on Tuesday. EUR/JPY met resistance around 119.70 After advancing to daily highs in the 119.70 region during early trade, sellers stepped in and dragged EUR/JPY back to the area below the 119.00 mark at the time of writing. In the meantime, the cross is struggling for direction following two consecutive daily pullbacks amidst the recovery in the greenback and increased selling pressure in the yen, particularly after news cited the government could inject around ¥60 trillion in the form of a stimulus package to combat the impact on the domestic economy of the coronavirus fallout. This package could be announced early next month. Also a consequence of the rebound in the buck, the shared currency keeps losing momentum and recedes further from recent weekly tops, collaborating at the same tome with the downbeat mood in the cross. In the docket, advanced inflation figures in the broader Euroland see the headline CPI rising at a monthly 0.5% in March and 0.7% over the last twelve months. Earlier in the session, the German jobless rate ticked lower to 5.0% for the current month along with an increment of just 1K in the Unemployment Change during the same period. EUR/JPY relevant levels At the moment the cross is losing 0.29% at 118.66 and a drop below 118.37 (monthly low Feb.28) would expose 116.36 (2020 low Mar.9) and then 115.86 (2019 low Sep.3). On the other hand, the next resistance lines up at 119.99 (200-day SMA) followed by 121.14 (monthly high Mar.25) and finally 121.39 (weekly high Feb.20).

While we expect S$NEER to trade relatively steadily, the outlook for USD/SGD is less clear, per ANZ Bank. The currency pair is trading at 1.4271. Key

While we expect S$NEER to trade relatively steadily, the outlook for USD/SGD is less clear, per ANZ Bank. The currency pair is trading at 1.4271. Key quotes “With USD gyrating between sharp gains and losses since mid-February, we see the risk that USD/SGD could retest the high of 1.46 seen on 23 March if extreme risk aversion returns.”  “We expect USD/SGD to peak at 1.475 by Q3 2020.”  

The Covid-19 lockdown was the right decision to save lives, but the economic cost will be severe. Economists at Westpac Institutional Bank set out the

The Covid-19 lockdown was the right decision to save lives, but the economic cost will be severe. Economists at Westpac Institutional Bank set out their forecast for the economy of New Zealand. Key quotes “We forecast that GDP will drop 15% over the March and June quarters, but will rise 10% in September.” “We expect that the unemployment rate will reach 9% and house prices will fall 7%.” “We forecast that the Government debt to GDP ratio will rise from 18.5% now to 40% by 2022.”  

A deep euro area recession in H1 now seems inevitable, GDP is set to contract in Q1 before collapsing further in Q2, analysts at MUFG Bank report. Key

A deep euro area recession in H1 now seems inevitable, GDP is set to contract in Q1 before collapsing further in Q2, analysts at MUFG Bank report. Key quotes “We currently assume that the number of new cases in Europe will peak by late-April, but containment measures will be gradually eased with some restrictions remaining in place for most of Q2. Based on this, we have revised our euro area GDP forecast for 2020 down to -6%.” “The euro area economy is unlikely to emerge from such a sharp fall in output unscathed. Relative to a pre-virus baseline, we see a loss of output of 2% of GDP by 2023.”  

The global economy is experiencing a shock, rather than the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses. Jeffrey Kleintop, a strategist at Charl

The global economy is experiencing a shock, rather than the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses. Jeffrey Kleintop, a strategist at Charles Schwaab, considers what the eventual recovery may look like and what areas may lead it.  Key quotes “This recession is the result of a shock, not the natural end result of a slow build-up of excesses. This may mean the recession and bear market could be deeper, but also that the duration may be shorter.” “Early signs in Asia of a V-shaped rebound are encouraging, but may instead look more like square root, flattening out as weaker global growth saps Asian economic momentum in the second quarter.” “Emerging markets, led by China and South Korea, are leading the recovery in the economy and markets as they did during the global recessions of 2000-02 and 2008-09.”  

After failing to hold above the 0.6000 handle, the NZD/USD pair extended its slide and touched a fresh daily low of 0.5945. As of writing, the pair wa

US Dollar Index continues to climb higher toward 100.Upbeat Chinese PMI data fail to help NZD find demand.Coming up: CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI data from US.After failing to hold above the 0.6000 handle, the NZD/USD pair extended its slide and touched a fresh daily low of 0.5945. As of writing, the pair was trading a couple of pips above that level, erasing 1% on a daily basis. V-shaped recovery in China? The data from China on Tuesday revealed a sharp recovery in the private sector's business activity. The Manufacturing PMI in March jumped to 52.3 from 29.6 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.3 from 29.6 with both figures surpassing market expectations by wide margins.  Despite the upbeat Chinese data, the pair struggled to gain traction as the broad-based USD strength allowed the bearish pressure to remain intact. The US Dollar Index, which closed the first day of the week with a gain of 0.75%, continues to push higher and was last seen adding 0.7% on the day at 99.72. During the American trading hours, the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch for  

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) above forecasts (-0.9%) in February: Actual (0.6%)

Headline inflation will turn negative while core inflation is set to gradually decline, according to economists at ABN Amro. Key quotes “The macro sti

Headline inflation will turn negative while core inflation is set to gradually decline, according to economists at ABN Amro. Key quotes “The macro stimulus measures are likely to only partially offset the shock to demand, and we judge that spare capacity will build in coming quarters, which will bear down on underlying inflationary pressures. The collapse in oil prices will be an immediate drag on inflation.” “In the second quarter, we think HICP inflation will register negative numbers on a year-over-year basis. Assuming some recovery in oil prices later in the year, headline inflation should bounce back sharply towards 2% by mid-2021.” “Given the weakness in demand, we expect core inflation to fall to just 0.6% by the end of next year from around 1.2% now. As a comparison, core inflation fell by around a percentage point following the global financial crisis.”  

Oil plunged to its lowest in some 18 years while President Trump will continue his dialog with Russia's Putin about the oil market, strategists at TD

Oil plunged to its lowest in some 18 years while President Trump will continue his dialog with Russia's Putin about the oil market, strategists at TD Securities report. Key quotes “Demand projections continue to move lower, while Saudi Arabia shows no signs of reconsidering its supply increase in the next few days.” “We suspect that for any deal to take place, Russia will likely ask for removal of all sanctions on Russian oil interests, and demand that the US must also cut production.” “We will get a supply decline, one way or another. The oft-cited proposal, between the US, Russia and OPEC could see 4-5 million b/d worth of cuts, representing a 10% cut by these major producers. But, it remains unlikely that even a cut of that magnitude would do much in the short term, when demand is set to drop 15-20 million b/d in the next month or so.”  

Open interest in Crude Oil futures increased by around 71.4K contracts on Monday, the largest single-day build so far this year according to advanced

Open interest in Crude Oil futures increased by around 71.4K contracts on Monday, the largest single-day build so far this year according to advanced readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume went up by nearly 353.8K contracts, the highest level since March 18th. WTI: Rallies seen as selling opportunities Prices of the WTI dropped to fresh 17-year lows near $19.20 per barrel at the beginning of the week and closed the session just above the key $20.00 mark. Rising open interest and volume amidst the current negative price action favour further near-term pullbacks, although it is worth mentioning that the extreme oversold conditions of the commodity could spark eventual bouts of strength. These, however, could be deemed as selling opportunities for the time being.

US stocks are set to end the first quarter of 2020 on a high note. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up some 100 points, less than 1%, indicati

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up some 100 points.Upbeat Chinese data and hopes for halting coronavirus underpin stocks.New figures, end-of-quarter flows, and data are all eyed.US stocks are set to end the first quarter of 2020 on a high note. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up some 100  points, less than 1%, indicating a modest advance. Stocks advanced on Monday after falling on Friday, and seem to be extending their recovery path. Upbeat Chinese Purchasing Managers’Indexes have underpinned DJIA futures for March. Figures for both the services and manufacturing sectors climbed above 50 points – indicating expansion. The next moves mostly depend on end-of-quarter flows. Money managers will be adjusting their portfolios after a turbulent quarter, which saw massive sell-offs. Will it lead the Dow Jones higher or lower? That remains a mystery amid extreme volatility. Coronavirus headlines remain in the spotlight as the number of new US cases and deaths continue rising sharply. There are over 160,000 confirmed Covid-19 infections and around 3,000 deaths. Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York, will deliver a press conference while markets are open. President Donald Trump wants to keep social distancing guidelines in place until the end of April but has ruled out an outright nationwide lockdown. The Federal Reserve reiterated that that is ready to act. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge for March is also of interest, and will likely plunge. It stood at 130.5 points in February. Traders are already eyeing three consecutive days of job figures, starting with ADP’s private-sector labor statistics on Wednesday, then weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and finally, the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. All are forecast to show different degrees of the disease’s impact. DJIA Futures Chart More: How will coronavirus impact the Unemployment Rate after causing a surge in Jobless Claims?

In light of preliminary figures for Gold futures markets from CME Group, traders scaled back their open interest positions for the fifth session in a

In light of preliminary figures for Gold futures markets from CME Group, traders scaled back their open interest positions for the fifth session in a row on Monday, this time by around 4.5K contracts. In the same direction, volume shrunk for the second consecutive day, now by around 100.3K contracts. Gold faces interim support around $1,550/oz The precious metal continues to trade on the back foot on Tuesday. The decline in prices of the ounce troy coupled with shrinking open interest and volume hint at the likeliness that further downside could be limited, leaving the $1,550 region as the next interim contention. In this area coincide a Fibo retracement of the December-March rally and the February’s low.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is in a bullish phase of consolidation above the 21 handle so far this Tuesday, having stalled its recovery from a new 17-y

WTI found reprieve after US-Russia agreed to talks to stabilize markets.Broad US dollar rebound keeps the oil-price recovery in check. Focus on coronavirus updates and API Crude Stocks data for fresh cues. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is in a bullish phase of consolidation above the 21 handle so far this Tuesday, having stalled its recovery from a new 17-year low reached at 19.27 in the US last session. The buyers faced some exhaustion near 21.80 region earlier today and since then they are gathering pace for the next push higher. At the time of writing, the black gold trades at 21.40, up 6.22% on a daily basis, with eyes set on the 22 mark. Oil bulls found fresh signs of life and rebounded from multi-year troughs after the Kremlin said late Monday, US President Donald Trump and his Russian Counterpart Vladimir Putin to have their top energy officials discuss stabilizing oil markets, as cited by Reuters. However, the upside attempts remain capped below the 22 threshold amid broad-based demand for the US dollar, traders rush to cover up the dollar shortage heading into the quarterly closing. A stronger greenback makes the USD-denominated oil expensive for foreign buyers. Further, looming concerns over a global economic slowdown and oil demand outlook, in the face of the coronavirus outbreak, also remain a weight on the barrel of WTI. Attention now turns towards the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly US Crude Stocks Change data due later at 2030 GMT for a fresh trading impetus. Meanwhile, the virus-related updates will continue to drive the risk sentiment alongside the US dollar trades. WTI technical levels to consider  

European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann noted that there will be discussions within the ECB on coronabonds but declined to comment further o

European Central Bank policymaker Robert Holzmann noted that there will be discussions within the ECB on coronabonds but declined to comment further on the matter.  "The idea behind the PEPP was to make liquidity rapidly available, rules were loosened to make sure enough assets were available to buy," Holzmann explained. "Rules for the PEPP will be set in future." Regarding the ECB's recommendation to banks on delaying dividend payments, Holzmann said that he is supporting that recommendation.  Market reaction The EUR/USD pair edged slightly lower and was last seen trading at 1.0975, erasing 0.65% on a daily basis.

Tim Shaler, Economist-in-Residence at iTrustCapital, says in an exclusive interview with FXStreet the yellow metal could hit all-time high value. Key

Tim Shaler, Economist-in-Residence at iTrustCapital, says in an exclusive interview with FXStreet the yellow metal could hit all-time high value. Key quotes “The all-time high value of gold in USD terms is $1895 per ounce, reached in 2011.” “If the US continues to borrow and print new currency for an extended amount of time, whether to get us through this current crisis or the next one, then gold could approach its all-time high value in US dollar terms.”  

India Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR increased to 10364.85B in February from previous 9854.72B

Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -2.3% to -2.6% in February

Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) down to -0.4% in February from previous -0.2%

The USD/CAD pair finally broke out of its daily trading range and climbed to multi-day tops, further beyond the 1.4200 mark during the early European

USD/CAD gains traction for the second straight session amid some follow-through USD strength.Recovering oil prices did little to lend any support to the loonie or stall the pair’s positive move.Investors now look forward to important Canadian/US macro data for some meaningful impetus.The USD/CAD pair finally broke out of its daily trading range and climbed to multi-day tops, further beyond the 1.4200 mark during the early European session. The pair added to the previous day's strong gains and gained some follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday amid the prevailing buying interest surrounding the US dollar. A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields – supported by a further improvement in the global risk sentiment – underpinned the USD demand and seemed to be a key factor driving the pair higher. Against the backdrop of the Fed's unlimited QE and a massive $2.2 trillion US economic stimulus package, a strong rebound in China's manufacturing activity in March boosted investors’ confidence on Tuesday. The risk-on mood allowed crude oil prices to stage a solid recovery from 18-year lows, albeit did little to lend any support to the commodity-linked currency – the loonie or stall the pair's intraday positive move. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the move or traders opt to lighten their bullish positions ahead of Tuesday's important macro releases, both from the US and Canada. Tuesday's economic docket highlights the release of the monthly Canadian GDP data for January and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index from the US, which might provide a fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch  

The Conference Board, a private non-profit business group, will release its March Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, March 31 at 13:00 GMT. Joseph

The Conference Board, a private non-profit business group, will release its March Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, March 31 at 13:00 GMT. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, with the preview. Key quotes “The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is expected to fall to 110.00 in March from 130.7 in February. The range of estimates in the Reuters survey, 87.4 to 122.0.” “It is the period immediately following the shutdowns that will be crucial. Many small businesses will be on life-support and in need of cash flow. If people are permitted to resume their normal lives then the possibility for a rapid return is greatly enhanced.” “In this Americans’ natural optimism may be more accurate than the economic gloom of the professionals. The drive for a normal life is probably the economy’s strongest ally.”  

China's manufacturing PMI jumped sharply back up in March, more than reversing its February losses, rising to its strongest since September 2017, econ

China's manufacturing PMI jumped sharply back up in March, more than reversing its February losses, rising to its strongest since September 2017, economists at TD Securities report. USD/CNY is trading at 7.0976. Key quotes “The PMI moved sharply back into expansion to 52.0 (mkt 44.8, TD 42.0) from 35.7 in February, its strongest reading since September 2017.” “The PMI breakdown revealed a major bounce back in output to 54.1, its highest since May 18. New orders also bounced to 52.0, its highest since September 18.” “The non-manufacturing PMI recorded an even bigger jump to 52.3 from 29.6, with the composite PMI rising to 53.”  

Italy 5-y Bond Auction: 0.8% vs 0.36%

Italy 10-y Bond Auction: 1.48% vs 1.29%

USD/NOK has sold off to its 61.8% retracement at 10.30 and is expected to recover from here, in the opinion of analysts at Commerzbank. Key quotes “US

USD/NOK has sold off to its 61.8% retracement at 10.30 and is expected to recover from here, in the opinion of analysts at Commerzbank. Key quotes “USD/NOK has held over 10.3941 for the last 3 trading days and we note the 240 minute chart is suggesting that this is also the end of the 4th Elliott wave count.” “Recovery from 10.30 implies that the bull trend remains intact and that the market is capable of retesting the 12.12 recent high.”  

The latest coronavirus stats from the Spanish government disappoint again, with the number of new confirmed cases accelerating while the daily death t

The latest coronavirus stats from the Spanish government disappoint again, with the number of new confirmed cases accelerating while the daily death toll hits a new high. More to come …

Tim Shaler, an Economist-in-Residence at iTrustCapital, believes the fiscal stimulus package passed by the Senate last week weighed on the USD as he s

Tim Shaler, an Economist-in-Residence at iTrustCapital, believes the fiscal stimulus package passed by the Senate last week weighed on the USD as he says in an exclusive interview with FXStreet. Key quotes “The falling dollar and the very quickly rising stock market on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday last week were all driven by speculation and passage of the $2 trillion fiscal stimulus package.”  “The US is about to borrow $2 trillion more dollars than previously expected, foreign exchange participants know that the US might be tempted to allow its currency to depreciate when all this new debt has to be repaid. That risk was immediately ‘priced in’ and the value of the dollar declined.”  “If the US pursues a ‘strong dollar policy’ then the dollar may again rally against other currencies.”  

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest retreated for the third session in a row on Monday, now by more than 3K contracts.

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets noted open interest retreated for the third session in a row on Monday, now by more than 3K contracts. In the same line, volume shrunk by 10.3K contracts, adding to Friday’s drop. USD/JPY met support near 107.00USD/JPY posted losses for the fourth consecutive day on Monday. However, declining open interest and volume in the Japanese safe haven opened the door to a rebound with the initial target at monthly peaks in the upper-111.00s.

It is the last day of the month and a quarter which saw the greenback rise significantly, and that may be partially reversed. The end of the European

It is the last day of the month and a quarter which saw the greenback rise significantly, and that may be partially reversed. The end of the European session may prove considerably volatile, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “New health figures from both sides of the Atlantic are due out later in the day and may rock markets. Coronavirus’ faster spread in the US – and the lack of a coherent response – are unfavorable for the greenback.” “Optimism comes from new efforts to stimulate the US economy. Hot of the heels of the $2.2 trillion stimulus bill, Congress is already mulling another fiscal package. New details may boost market sentiment.” “The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge is projected to drop from the score of 130.5 points in February. The parallel University of Michigan’s figure substantially fell from above 100 to 89.1 points.” “Final Gross Domestic Product figures for the UK confirmed stagnation in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, markets are ignoring data that predates March.”

The GBP/USD pair maintained its offered tone through the early European session, albeit has managed to hold comfortably above the daily swing lows and

GBP/USD remained under some selling on Tuesday amid some follow-through USD buying.Mostly in line UK macro data did little to impress bulls or provide any meaningful impetus.Traders now look forward to the US economic releases for some short-term opportunities.The GBP/USD pair maintained its offered tone through the early European session, albeit has managed to hold comfortably above the daily swing lows and the 1.2300 round-figure mark. The pair extended the previous day's modest pullback from near two-week tops set last week and witnessed some aggressive selling during the early part of Tuesday's trading action amid some follow-through US dollar buying interest. As investors digested the Fed's unlimited quantitative easing program, the ever-increasing number of confirmed coronavirus cases across the world benefitted the greenback's perceived safe-haven status against its British counterpart. Adding to this, a further improvement in the global risk sentiment was evident from a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which provided an additional boost to the buck and contributed to the pair's intraday slide. Meanwhile, Tuesday's mostly in line UK macro data failed to provide any meaningful impetus or impress the GBP bulls, albeit turned out to be one of the key factors that extended some support and helped limit deeper losses. The pair has managed to recover around 100-pips from daily lows and the emergence of buying at lower levels suggests that the recent strong recovery from the 1.1400 neighbourhood or 35-year lows might still be far from being over. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of Chicago PMI and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index – in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Chief Lothar Wieler said on Tuesday, he is optimistic about flattening the coronavirus curve. Additional quotes

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Chief Lothar Wieler said on Tuesday, he is optimistic about flattening the coronavirus curve. Additional quotes Optimism is still justified. Any change in the virus trend will be clearer after Easter. The actual mortality rate from the virus in Germany is ~0.8%. The mortality rate will rise further. Earlier today, the Institute reported that the number of confirmed cases rose by 4,615 in Germany compared with the previous day while the death toll climbed by 128. EUR/USD reaction EUR/USD meanders near a fresh session low of 1.0973 reached in the last minutes, mainly driven by broad US dollar demand heading into the quarterly close. Eurozone Preliminary CPI rises by 0.7% YoY in March, misses estimates – EUR/USD keeps lows

EUR/USD closely tracks global sentiment, in the opinion of economists at Danske Bank, who see the pair stabilisating in the near-term. Key quotes “Rec

EUR/USD closely tracks global sentiment, in the opinion of economists at Danske Bank, who see the pair stabilisating in the near-term.  Key quotes “Recent market stabilisation has clearly been supportive of the spot as markets are arguably front-running economic improvement.”  “Global risk stabilisation near term supports EUR/USD at 1.10-1.12 for now.” “EU institutional weakness, doubt as to Fed’s reaction function 12M out and virus fears also still make downside risks more pertinent, such that 1.07 will likely act as an anchor and more so than fair-value estimates around 1.20 adding to upside risk.”  

Investors scaled back their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, this time by around 4.7K contracts as per advanced f

Investors scaled back their open interest positions for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, this time by around 4.7K contracts as per advanced figures from CME Group. Volume followed suit and went down by almost 34.8K contracts. GBP/USD: Upside faltered near 1.2500 The upside momentum in Cable appears to have lost traction in the vicinity of the 1.2500 mark on Monday amidst declining open interest and volume. That said, the lack of follow through plus inconclusive price action could spark some correction/consolidation in the short-term horizon.

On Tuesday, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced 405.1 trillion rupiah of additional spending to cushion the economic shock from the coronavirus

On Tuesday, Indonesian President Joko Widodo announced 405.1 trillion rupiah of additional spending to cushion the economic shock from the coronavirus crisis. Further comments Have signed new regulation in lieu of law on state finances. 2020 budget deficit is estimated to reach 5.07% of GDP vs. the previous estimate of 2.5%. Covid-19 economic stimulus include 3%-point reduction in corporate tax rate to 22%. USD/IDR reaction The Indonesian rupiah picked up fresh bids on the announcement of the government’s new economic package, knocking-off USD/IDR to fresh session lows of 16,305. The spot turned negative on the above headlines, falling further from the daily high of 16,387.50.

Greece Retail Sales (YoY): 8.4% (January) vs -1.5%

According to Eurostat’s flash reading of Eurozone CPI report, the annual reading came in at +0.7% in March, meeting expectations of +0.8% and +1.2% pr

According to Eurostat’s flash reading of Eurozone CPI report, the annual reading came in at +0.7% in March, meeting expectations of +0.8% and +1.2% previous. Meanwhile, the core figures arrived at +1.0% in the reported month when compared to 1.2% expectations and +1.2% previous.   more to come ....

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) above forecasts (-0.2%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) came in at 2.2%, above expectations (1.7%) in March

Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-0.4%) in March: Actual (0.1%)

Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in March

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) came in at 1% below forecasts (1.2%) in March

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.7% below forecasts (0.8%) in March

Gold traded with a mild negative bid through the early European session and dropped to multi-day lows in the last hour, albeit has still managed to ho

The safe-haven gold edged lower on Tuesday amid a further improvement in the risk sentiment.Some follow-through USD strength further weighed on the dollar-denominated commodity.Concerns over an imminent global recession might help limit deeper losses, at least for now.Gold traded with a mild negative bid through the early European session and dropped to multi-day lows in the last hour, albeit has still managed to hold above the $1600 mark. The precious metal extended its sideways consolidative price action on Tuesday and remained confined well within a broader trading range held over the past five trading sessions or so as investors awaited a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Against the backdrop of the Fed's unlimited QE and a massive $2.2 trillion US economic stimulus package, investors' sentiment got an additional boost from a sharp rebound in the Chinese manufacturing sector activity boosted investors' confidence on Tuesday. This was evident from a further recovery in the global risk sentiment and reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields. This eventually dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets and exerted some pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the US dollar added to the overnight recovery gains and further undermined demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. However, concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic extended some support. This coupled with the ever-increasing number of confirmed coronavirus cases and tightening lockdowns across the world should also help limit deeper losses, at least for the time being, making it prudent to wait for a sustained break through the recent trading range. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of Chicago PMI and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index – in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD Tuesday’s four-hour chart is pointing to gains for the cable, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Momentum on the four-hou

GBP/USD Tuesday’s four-hour chart is pointing to gains for the cable, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “Momentum on the four-hour chart is upbeat, and the pair is trading above the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages – bullish indicators. The Relative Strength Index is below 70, outside overbought conditions.” “Resistance awaits at 1.2460, a temporary cap in recent days, and mid-March. It is followed by 1.25, which held GBP/USD down in the past few days and provided support earlier in the month.” “Support awaits at 1.2240, the daily low, followed by 1.2130, a support line from last week.”  

Coronavirus measures taken by Viktor Orban could intensify the disagreements between Hungary and the EU and, therefore, weaken the HUF, according to a

Coronavirus measures taken by Viktor Orban could intensify the disagreements between Hungary and the EU and, therefore, weaken the HUF, according to analysts at Danske Bank. EUR/HUF trades at 358.785. Key quotes “Coronavirus emergency measures have been taken, which effectively support Orban’s domestic political power as well. While this is hardly a big mover in EUR/HUF, it does have the potential to amplify the already ongoing disagreements between Hungary and the EU.” “These somewhat right-wing initiatives did lend support to EUR/HUF yesterday and more HUF weakness could come at a later point in time as a result.”  

Open interest in EUR futures markets went up by around 1.2K contracts on Monday according to preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, v

Open interest in EUR futures markets went up by around 1.2K contracts on Monday according to preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, volume shrunk for the second straight session, this time by around 50.1K contracts. EUR/USD risks a breach of 1.0990EUR/USD remains on the defensive so far in the first half of the week. Rising open interest opens the door for the continuation of the downside with initial target the 1.0990 region ahead of the Fibo retracement at 1.0814.

The March ANZ Business Outlook Survey made for dreadful reading. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6000. Key quotes “Headline business confidence plummeted 45 p

The March ANZ Business Outlook Survey made for dreadful reading. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6000. Key quotes “Headline business confidence plummeted 45 points to -64 in March, close to a record low. Firms’ expectations for their own activity fell 39 points to a net 28% expecting lower activity over the year ahead, a record low.” “Retail sector own activity collapsed 56 points from +15 to -41. Services and construction also plummeted by more than 40 points.”  “Inflation expectations dropped another 38bp to 1.51%, the lowest in 3 years.”  

Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank, analyzes the USD/CAD pair amid softer crude prices. Key quotes “Renewed downside pressure on the crude comp

Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank, analyzes the USD/CAD pair amid softer crude prices. Key quotes “Renewed downside pressure on the crude complex may have caused the USD/CAD to arrest its downside move for now.” “Expect the 1.4000 level to re-enter as a support level, with 1.4300 serving as a cap.”  

Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 1.5% in March from previous -0.6%

Portugal Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 0.1% in March from previous 0.4%

Based on EIA data published for the week ended 22nd March last week, there were no real issues in terms of storage. However, that is all about to chan

Based on EIA data published for the week ended 22nd March last week, there were no real issues in terms of storage. However, that is all about to change, in the opinion of Robert Rennie from Westpac Institutional Bank. Key quotes “Given the current backdrop of what could be as much as a 15mbpd shock to global demand coinciding with what could be as much as a 5mbpd shock increase to global crude supply, the focus in paper crude markets will very quickly turn to storage capacity.” “Industry anecdotes are suggesting that pipes are beginning to fill and crude that was being piped to the gulf is suddenly becoming landlocked. Such is the case with WTI Midlands. “Assuming the current supply/ demand picture continues, we tend to see this as a glimpse of what may be to come for WTI - a drop into the 'teens'.”  

Hong Kong SAR Retail Sales fell from previous -21.4% to -44% in February

Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 5% below forecasts (5.1%) in March

AUD/USD has reached the 55 day ma at 0.6181. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, analyzes the AUD/USD technical ou

AUD/USD has reached the 55 day ma at 0.6181. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, analyzes the AUD/USD technical outlook. Key quotes “Currently the daily Elliott wave count is implying a recovery to 0.6275 and possibly even 0.6450.” “The intraday Elliott wave counts are much more negative and imply that the correction may halt around here and for now we have reinstated short positions.” “It stays bid above 0.5873 and this guards the 0.5530 1998 low.”  

EUR/USD is set for a crescendo as a turbulent month and quarter draw to an end. There are several reasons to believe the pair ends the quarter on a hi

EUR/USD is set for a crescendo as a turbulent month and quarter draw to an end. There are several reasons to believe the pair ends the quarter on a high note even though the general picture remains dark, FXStreet’s analysts Yohay Elam report. Key quotes “EUR/USD may have more room to the upside as money managers adjust their portfolios. Significant swings are likely toward the end of the European session.” “China is showing signs of recovery. The manufacturing and services PMIs topped 50 points, signaling expansion and beating expectations. The data may improve the market mood and weigh on the safe-haven US dollar.” “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is working on a new plan. That would be positive for the economy.” “Sentiment among consumers will be tested later in the day. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure for March is projected to drop from the highs around 130 points.”  

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan reviewed the recent decision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease its monetary conditions and its

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan reviewed the recent decision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to ease its monetary conditions and its forecasts for recession. Key Quotes “In line with our call, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) eased its monetary policy by adopting a “zero percent per annum rate of appreciation of the policy band”, while keeping the width of the band unchanged.” “MAS kept its growth outlook for 2020 unchanged, with GDP growth projected at a range between -4.0% and -1.0%. In the MAS Monetary Policy Statement, it added that the COVID-19 pandemic has “led to a severe contraction in economic activity both in Singapore and globally”, given the ongoing supply chain disruptions, travel restrictions and negative demand shocks. MAS also lowered its headline and core inflation forecast ranges to -1.0% to 0.0%, down from its initial range projection of 0.5% – 1.5%.” “The S$NEER remained stable despite MAS announcement to loosen monetary policy, suggesting that the move has been mostly priced in.”

Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. came in at 2.3%, below expectations (5.1%) in March

Spain Current Account Balance came in at €-1.73B, below expectations (€-0.37B) in January

The USD/CHF pair edged higher through the early European session and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.963

USD/CHF gained traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday.Improving risk sentiment weighed on the CHF’s perceived safe-haven status.The USD added to the overnight gains and remained supportive of the uptick.The USD/CHF pair edged higher through the early European session and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.9630 region. A combination of supporting factors assisted the pair to gain some follow-through traction for the second consecutive session and recover further from near two-week lows, around the key 0.9500 psychological mark set on Monday. A further recovery in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by a bullish tone around the equity markets, was seen as one of the key factors weighing on the Swiss franc's safe-haven status and remained supportive of the positive move. Against the backdrop of the Fed's unlimited QE and a massive $2.2 trillion US economic stimulus package, a sharp rebound in Chinese manufacturing sector activity in March boosted investors' confidence and their appetite for riskier assets. The risk-on mood was further reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which underpinned the US dollar and contributed to the pair's ongoing recovery move, which took along some short-term trading stops near the 0.9600 mark. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the momentum or runs into some fresh supply at higher levels amid growing market concerns over the global economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of Chicago PMI and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index – in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD is seeing some correction after the rally run out of steam in the 1.1150 zone earlier in past sessions. This area of resistance is coincident

EUR/USD’s recovery seems to have met a tough barrier near 1.1150.A breach of 1.0990 should open the door to further downside.EUR/USD is seeing some correction after the rally run out of steam in the 1.1150 zone earlier in past sessions. This area of resistance is coincident with a Fibo retracement of the March drop. The pair is now flirting with the 55-day SMA just above 1.10 the figure, managing to bounce off the key support area around 1.0990 (January’s low). If the bearish move picks up pace and breaks below the 1.0990 region on a sustainable basis, then the next interim support is seen at 1.0964 (Fibo retracement of the March drop) ahead of February’s low at 1.0777. EUR/USD daily chart  

FX Strategists at UOB Group see USD/CNH keep the consolidative fashion in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 7.0878

FX Strategists at UOB Group see USD/CNH keep the consolidative fashion in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 7.0878 and 7.1219 yesterday, narrower than our expected range of 7.0600/7.1300. The price action offers no fresh clues and for today, USD could trade between 7.0950 and 7.1350.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Wednesday (25 Mar, spot at 7.0700). As highlighted, USD has not been able to make much headway on the upside after surging to a high of 7.1652. For now, we continue to see chance for USD to break 7.1700 even though the odds have diminished further. However, only a break of 7.0350 (no change in ‘strong support’ level would indicate that the recent upward pressure has eased.”

Germany Unemployment Change came in at 1K below forecasts (29K) in March

Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. below forecasts (5.1%) in March: Actual (5%)

DXY met solid contention in the vicinity of the key 200-day SMA just above 98.00 the figure so far this week. If the bullish attempt picks up extra pa

DXY manages to surpass the 99.00 mark at the beginning of the week.The outlook remains positive above the 200-day SMA at 98.00.DXY met solid contention in the vicinity of the key 200-day SMA just above 98.00 the figure so far this week. If the bullish attempt picks up extra pace, then a potential visit to the psychological 100.00 barrier should return to the investors’ radar ahead of the Fibo retracement at 100.49. So far, the positive outlook on the dollar remains unchanged as long as the 200-day SMA around 98.00 holds the downside. DXY daily chart  

Eurostat will publish the first estimate of Eurozone inflation figures for March at 0900 GMT this Tuesday. The headline CPI is anticipated to come in

Eurozone Preliminary CPIs overview Eurostat will publish the first estimate of Eurozone inflation figures for March at 0900 GMT this Tuesday. The headline CPI is anticipated to come in softer at 0.9% YoY while the core inflation is seen steady at 1.2% YoY during the reported month. Deviation impact on EUR/USD Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 30 pips in deviations up to 1.5 to -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 45-50 pips. How could affect EUR/USD? Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Senior Analyst, offers important technical levels ahead of the key release: “he currency pair is benefiting from upside momentum on the four-hour chart and trades above the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages. Resistance awaits at 1.1090, which was a stepping stone on the way up in recent days. It is followed by 1.1150, the cycle high. Next, 1.1240 and 1.1360 await the pair.” “Support is at the swing low of 1.0950, followed by 1.0890, which was a temporary resistance line on the way up. Next, 1.0835 held EUR/USD down earlier this month. The next levels to watch are 1.0750 and 1.0640,” Yohay adds. Key notes EU Commission expects deeper recession than in 2009 - EurActiv The week ahead: Data starts to show coronavirus impact EUR/USD Forecast: Recent corrective bounce might have already run out of the steam About Eurozone Preliminary CPIs estimate The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

USD/JPY is expected to navigate within the 107.60-109.00 broad range in the very near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour

USD/JPY is expected to navigate within the 107.60-109.00 broad range in the very near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for USD to ‘dip below’ 107.00 was wrong as it rebounded sharply and swiftly after touching 107.10. Downward pressure has dissipated and from here, USD could edge higher but any advance is viewed as part of a 107.60/109.00 range (a sustained advance above 109.00 is not expected.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted last Friday (27 Mar, spot at 109.70) that ‘a short-term top is in place’ and added, ‘USD could weaken further to 107.00’. From here, 107.00 appear to be within reach. The next support level of note below 107.00 is nearer to 105.90. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 109.80 from Friday’s level of 110.60.”

If necessary, the government should deploy 2nd, 3rd round of stimulus measures, a senior official at Japan’s ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party (L

If necessary, the government should deploy 2nd, 3rd round of stimulus measures, a senior official at Japan’s ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), said this Tuesday. No further comments are out on the same. Meanwhile, the government continues to mull over a lockdown in the capital, Tokyo. It’s worth noting that a total of 443 people in Tokyo are infected with respiratory illness. USD/JPY clings to gains near 200-DMA, around mid-108.00s Japan Economic Minister Nishimura: Job market held up in feb but i have strong sense of crisis as situation could worsen

The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early European session and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range

USD/JPY regains positive traction and was being supported by a combination of factors.The USD built on the overnight gains and was supported by a pickup in the US bond yields.Improving global risk sentiment weighed on the safe-haven JPY and remained supportive.The USD/JPY pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early European session and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, around mid-108.00s. Following the previous day's two-way/directionless price action, the pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and was being supported by a combination of positive factors. The safe-haven Japanese yen was weighed down by a further recovery in the global risk sentiment, which coupled with some follow-through US dollar buying remained supportive of the uptick. Against the backdrop of the Fed's unlimited QE and a massive $2.2 trillion US economic stimulus package, a sharp rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity boosted investors' confidence and the same was evident from a positive mood around the equity markets. In fact, the official Chinese Manufacturing PMI for March surpassed even the most optimistic estimates and jumped back in the expansion territory. The risk-on mood was further reinforced by a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which assisted the greenback to build on the overnight gains. This provided an additional boost to the pair's recovery move from near two-week lows set in the previous session. It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the uptick or continues with its struggle to sustain above the very important 200-day SMA. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of Chicago PMI and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index – in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. The key focus, however, will remain on developments surrounding the coronavirus saga. Technical levels to watch 

After printing multi-week tops beyond 121.00 the figure last Wednesday, EUR/JPY has come under selling pressure and is once again navigating the sub-1

EUR/JPY regains some traction above the 119.00 mark on Tuesday.The next target now emerges at the February lows in the 108.50 area.After printing multi-week tops beyond 121.00 the figure last Wednesday, EUR/JPY has come under selling pressure and is once again navigating the sub-120.00 zone. The cross is prolonging the recent breakdown of the key 200-day SMA in the 120.00 region. The continuation of the selling bias should see the cross testing the mid-118.00s in the near term, where emerge the February lows. Extra losses are therefore likely while below the key 200-day SMA in the 120.00 neighbourhood. EUR/JPY daily chart  

USD/CHF consolidated sideways yesterday but did not overcome any resistance of note and therefore remains vulnerable, according to Karen Jones from Co

USD/CHF consolidated sideways yesterday but did not overcome any resistance of note and therefore remains vulnerable, according to Karen Jones from Commerzbank. Key quotes “Last week the market eroded the 0.9613 January support and in doing so has left it on the defensive. Attention is on 0.9457, 61.8% retracement which guards the 0.9336 78.6% retracement and the current March low at 0.9184.”  “Nearby rallies are likely to find initial resistance at 0.9673 (55 day ma) and the 200 day ma at 0.9812.”  

Late-2008/2009 offers a highly relevant historical analogue for the near term USD outlook, Richard Franulovich from Westpac Institutional Bank reports

Late-2008/2009 offers a highly relevant historical analogue for the near term USD outlook, Richard Franulovich from Westpac Institutional Bank reports. Key quotes “The parallels with recent USD price action are obvious; the DXY squeezed 9% higher over a more compressed two week period by 20th March, only to give back roughly half those gains by month’s end, reflecting broad global policy relief and an easing in USD-funding scarcity.” “But if late 2008/2009 is any guide the USD is likely to stabilise soon and resume a broadly strong tone. Back in 2008/09, once the initial USD squeeze and partial reversal were complete, the USD subsequently regained its footing and held solid well into mid-2009.”  “If that scenario plays out again in 2020 that would imply currencies are on the cusp of once again broadly track in line with their sensitivity to risk aversion.”  

The crude oil prices fell sharply, as signs of a collapse in demand emerged, economists at ANZ Bank apprise. Key quotes “Inventories at Cushing, Oklah

The crude oil prices fell sharply, as signs of a collapse in demand emerged, economists at ANZ Bank apprise. Key quotes “Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma are said to have increased nearly 4mbbl last week, according to Genscape data. This is raising the prospect of storage running out for crude oil.  “The collapse in prices prompted a call for action from US President Trump, who reached out to Russian President Putin to discuss the price war with Saudi Arabia, with the two agreeing to keep discussion ongoing.”  “The reality is that the level damage to demand is likely to overwhelm any production cut agreement between major producers. The lockdown of cities around the world and the shutdown of the aviation industry will cause a fall in demand the industry has never seen before.”  

The relationship between AUD/NZD and risk appetite is not always clearly positive but for now it implies that rallies in the cross will be difficult t

The relationship between AUD/NZD and risk appetite is not always clearly positive but for now it implies that rallies in the cross will be difficult to sustain multi-week as Covid-19 news is sure to worsen, analysts at Westpac Institutional Bank brief. Key quotes “AUD/NZD is a long way below its long term average. The 1.00-1.05 range accounts for a mere 4% of the days since the NZD float in 1985. However, the pair has closed in the recent 1.05- 1.10 range on a hefty 18.1% of days.” “AUD/NZD fair value has risen about 2 cents so far in 2020, to above 1.14. Our fair value model is simple, containing only yield spreads and commodity spreads.” “Our end-June AUD/NZD forecast is 1.03. Near term though, renewed bouts of risk aversion are likely to ensure we see more trade around say 1.00-1.01 than 1.03-1.04.”  

While speaking to an Italian daily, the Economic Development Minister Stefano Patuanelli noted that “we need to prepare for the end of lockdown.” He a

While speaking to an Italian daily, the Economic Development Minister Stefano Patuanelli noted that “we need to prepare for the end of lockdown.” He added that the data shows a regression of the virus outbreak.   more to come ...

EUR/USD has been setting higher highs and higher lows, with the recent trough of 1.0980 beating the previous one at around 1.0950. Yohay Elam, an anal

EUR/USD has been setting higher highs and higher lows, with the recent trough of 1.0980 beating the previous one at around 1.0950. Yohay Elam, an analyst at FXStreet, examines the EUR/USD technical picture. Key quotes “The EUR/USD pair is benefiting from upside momentum on the four-hour chart and trades above the 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages.” “Resistance awaits at 1.1090, which was a stepping stone on the way up in recent days. It is followed by 1.1150, the cycle high.” “Support is at the swing low of 1.0950, followed by 1.0890, which was a temporary resistance line on the way up.”

The AUD/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its goodish intraday bounce and quickly retreated around 40-50 pips from two-week tops, levels beyond the

AUD/USD quickly reversed an early dip to sub-0.6100 level on upbeat Chinese PMIs.The USD benefitted from concerns over coronavirus crisis and capped further gains.The AUD/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its goodish intraday bounce and quickly retreated around 40-50 pips from two-week tops, levels beyond the 0.6200 round-figure mark. The pair quickly reversed an early Asian session dip to the 0.6080 region and rallied over 140 pips in reaction to upbeat Chinese macro data, showing a sharp rebound in manufacturing sector activity. In fact, the official Chinese Manufacturing PMI for March surpassed even the most optimistic estimates and jumped back in the expansion territory. Adding to this, China's Services PMI also bettered market expectations and moved back above the 50 levels and underpinned the China-proxy Australian dollar. This comes on the back of a massive $2.2 trillion US stimulus package, which remained supportive of a further recovery in the global risk sentiment and benefitted perceived riskier currencies, including the aussie. Despite the latest optimism, persistent worries about the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continued lending some support to the US dollar's perceived safe-haven status. This eventually kept a lid on any strong follow-through gains, rather prompted some selling at higher levels and thus, warrants some caution before placing fresh bullish bets. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of Chicago PMI and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index – in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Meanwhile, the key focus will remain on developments surrounding the coronavirus saga. Technical levels to watch  

Indonesia plans to relax budget deficit limit to beyond 3% of GDP for three years to allow for more spending on COVID-19 response, the country’s Finan

Indonesia plans to relax budget deficit limit to beyond 3% of GDP for three years to allow for more spending on COVID-19 response, the country’s Finance Ministry said on Tuesday. In an effort to curb the coronavirus spread, the Foreign Ministry announced that the government would ban all arrivals and transit by foreigners in the country. Meanwhile, the country also plans to mobilize volunteers to fight the spread of coronavirus in coastal villages and the vast hinterlands of the archipelago with part of a US$4.4 billion (S$6.27 billion) rural budget to be used to fund the initiative, the Straits Times reported. The disease that has already infected more than 1,400 people and killed 122, the highest death toll in South-east Asia. USD/IDR reaction USD/IDR flirts with the daily highs of 16,378, up 0.32% on a daily basis, at the time of writing. The Indonesian rupiah remains pressured amid growing coronavirus concerns on the economy.

The NOK has been on the back foot for some time. On a 1 month view, the NOK is the worst performing G10 currency, losing over 11% vs. the USD, which i

The NOK has been on the back foot for some time. On a 1 month view, the NOK is the worst performing G10 currency, losing over 11% vs. the USD, which is clearly related to the plunge in oil prices, according to analysts at Rabobank. Key quotes “In view of the sharp deterioration in economic conditions in Norway and the recently announced rate cuts from the Norges, the NOK is likely to remain soft until a turnaround in oil prices is in sight.”  “The NOK is also likely a victim of thin liquidity, which implies that for many investors, the NOK may only be an attractive asset when risk appetite is at buoyant levels and demand for yield is particularly strong.”  “We see risk that the NOK will remain depressed going forward, with EUR/NOK potentially struggling to push below the 10.50 area in the coming months.”  

Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below expectations (0.5%) in 4Q: Actual (0.4%)

Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (1.8%) in 4Q

Turkey Trade Balance increased to -2.98B in February from previous -4.45B

Hungary Gross Wages (YoY) declined to 9.2% in January from previous 13.1%

With prices significantly lower, markets have at least partially accounted for this demand shock. Strategists at TD Securities analyze is the base met

With prices significantly lower, markets have at least partially accounted for this demand shock. Strategists at TD Securities analyze is the base metals market has discounted the depth of the problem. Key quotes “We find that base metal prices have already accurately discounted the hit to commodity demand thus far observed, with base metals posting returns largely in line with expectations.” “We find that base metal betas to pandemic sentiment are quite low in our cross-asset framework, suggesting that the metals are more likely to be driven by commodity demand than risk sentiment.” “If prices have fully discounted the deterioration in demand, the onus is placed on the ongoing containment measures and suggests that metal prices may not recover with other risk assets in response to the easing of our fear gauge.”  

The German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said that the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen to 61,913,

The German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), said that the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen to 61,913, with a total of 583 deaths reported as on Tuesday.        Cases rose by 4,615 in Germany compared with the previous day while the death toll climbed by 128. Indonesia saw the confirmed new cases having risen to 1,414, with the number of deaths increased to 122. Foreign Ministry announced that the government would ban all arrivals and transit by foreigners in the country. This comes after President Joko Widodo called for “more decisive steps” to restrict people’s movement at a cabinet meeting on Monday. According to Reuters, the coronavirus infections in Japan topped 2,000 cases. A total of 443 people in Tokyo are infected with respiratory illness. Earlier today, Japan’s Economy Minister said that the country is not at a stage to declare a state of emergency. Australia’s Heath Ministry said there were about 4,400 coronavirus cases nationally, with the rate of growth in new infections slowing to an average of 9% over the past three days from 25-30% a week ago. The death toll in a country of almost 25 million stood at 19. Thailand reported 127 cases and one new death on Tuesday. The Health Minister reported that the number of confirmed infections in the country rose to 1,651. Ten people who tested positive for the coronavirus have died.  The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India stands at 1,251. The Union Health Ministry has said that 102 patients have recovered so far, but 32 have died.

The Kiwi is still as strong as an ox, having almost reached 0.61 overnight. NZD/USD continues to benefit from the food exports story, but month-end fl

The Kiwi is still as strong as an ox, having almost reached 0.61 overnight. NZD/USD continues to benefit from the food exports story, but month-end flows could weigh on it on the day, analysts at ANZ Bank inform. Key quotes “NY Fed data suggest US GDP is down around 7% on Q4, and that will only intensify as lockdowns widen.”  “New Zealand faces challenges too, but the food exporter thematic is helping sentiment.” “Watch out for month end-selling as folks flock to cheaper US markets.” “Support 0.5830 Resistance 0.6100”  

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) above forecasts (-0.1%) in March: Actual (0%)

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.1%) in March

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) registered at 0.7%, below expectations (1%) in March

France Producer Prices (MoM) below expectations (-0.1%) in February: Actual (-0.6%)

France Consumer Spending (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

The cable’s overnight pullback from the vicinity of the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.3200-1.1412 steep decline showed some resilience below 50% Fibo

The cable’s overnight pullback from the vicinity of the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.3200-1.1412 steep decline showed some resilience below 50% Fibo. level, FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani briefs. Key quotes “It will be prudent to wait for a sustained weakness below the 50% Fibo. level of the 1.3200-1.1412 steep decline before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move. Below the mentioned support, the pair is likely to accelerate the slide further towards testing support near the 1.2200 round-figure mark.” “On the flip side, the 1.2400-1.2410 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate resistance, which if cleared decisively should assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the key 1.2500 psychological mark (61.8% Fibo.).”

Technical indicators are signaling the EUR/USD recent recovery is running out of steam, in the opinion of FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani. Key quot

Technical indicators are signaling the EUR/USD recent recovery is running out of steam, in the opinion of FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani. Key quotes “EUR/USD’s inability to find to acceptance above the very important 200-day SMA and a subsequent pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci of the 1.1497-1.0636 slide suggests that the recent bounce from multi-year lows might have already run out of the steam.”  “It will be prudent to wait for a sustained weakness below 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 1.0965-60 region, before traders start positioning for the resumption of the prior/well-established bearish trend.”  “On the flip side, the 1.1065 region (50% Fibo.) now seems to act as immediate resistance and is followed by the 1.1095-1.1100 region (200-DMA).”

Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) above forecasts (-0.7%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

The AUD/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish in the short-term, as long as it holds above the 0.6100/10 price zone, according to FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Va

The AUD/USD pair is neutral-to-bullish in the short-term, as long as it holds above the 0.6100/10 price zone, according to FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik. Key quotes “The AUD/USD pair is offering a neutral-to-bullish stance in its 4-hour chart, as it has spent the day struggling around a bearish 100 SMA, but also above a bullish 20 SMA. “Technical indicators remain within positive levels, the Momentum easing and the RSI flat at around 62, limiting chances of a steeper decline.” “Support levels: 0.6110 0.6070 Resistance levels: 0.6200 0.6240”

Further upside in NZD/USD could test the 0.6150 area in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD did n

Further upside in NZD/USD could test the 0.6150 area in the next weeks, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD did not do much yesterday as it traded between 0.5987 and 0.6059, narrower than our expected range of 0.5950/0.6080. The price action offers no fresh clues and for today, NZD is expected to trade between 0.5970 and 0.6080.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The recent high volatility decreased rapidly as NZD posted a daily range of 72 pips yesterday (between 0.5987 and 0.6059), the smallest 1-day range since the beginning of this month. While upward momentum is showing signs of stalling, we continue to see chance for the current recovery in NZD to extend to 0.6150. That said, the odds for a clear break of this level are not high. On the downside, a break of 0.5880 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

The single currency extends the pessimism at the beginning of the week and forces EUR/USD to come under extra downside pressure following recent peaks

EUR/USD remains on the defensive above the 1.10 mark.The pair comes down after hitting 1.1150 on Monday.German labour market figures, EMU CPI coming up next.The single currency extends the pessimism at the beginning of the week and forces EUR/USD to come under extra downside pressure following recent peaks in the mid-1.1100s. EUR/USD weaker on USD-rebound, looks to dataEUR/USD is losing ground for the second session in a row on Tuesday, prolonging the downbeat mood seen at the beginning of the week and always against the backdrop of quite a moderate improvement surrounding the buck. Indeed, month/quarter-end flows and some stress re-emerging around the dollar funding earlier in the Asian trading hours have been sustaining the recovery in the buck and pushed the DXY to fresh 2-day highs near 99.60, where it run out of steam. In the data space, German Import Prices contracted 0.9% MoM during February and 2.0% over the last twelve months, all ahead of the release of the more relevant labour market report later in the session. In the broader euro zone, flash inflation figures for the month of March will also see the light later on Tuesday. Across the pond, the always-relevant Consumer Confidence tracked by the Conference Board is due seconded by the S&P/Case-Shiller index. What to look for around EUR The rally in EUR/USD appears to have met some interesting hurdle in the vicinity 1.1150 so far, sparking some corrective downside in consequence. In the meantime, dynamics around the greenback plus developments from the COVID-19 are expected to keep ruling the price action in the pair. On the macro view, recent better-than-forecasted PMIs in both Germany and the broader Euroland opened the door to some respite in the prevailing downtrend in fundamentals in the region, although the underlying stance still remains well on the negative side. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.25% at 1.1015 and faces the next support at 1.0983 (weekly low Mar.31) seconded by 1.0964 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the March drop) and finally 1.0814 (78.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally). On the flip side, a break above 1.1079 (200-day SMA) would target 1.1147 (weekly high Mar.27) en route to 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally).

According to a European Commission document seen by EURACTIV on Tuesday, the Commission expected the economic slowdown induced by the coronavirus pand

According to a European Commission document seen by EURACTIV on Tuesday, the Commission expected the economic slowdown induced by the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be deeper than the 2009 Great Recession. The internal document dated March 30 doesn’t show the Commission’s estimate as to how much the European economy will contract due to the virus hit. The document read: "Taking into account the extent of the supply-side disruptions in the productive capacity of countries and in global value chains (including intra-EU and extra-EU), we can reasonably expect this crisis to be deeper than the Great Recession in 2009." “The EU executive noted that the main economic impact has moved from the indirect effects of disruption in international supply chains, when the crisis was focused in China, to the suspension of non-essential economic activities in countries across the world, especially in Europe.” EUR/USD reaction EUR/USD continues to consolidate it rebound from 1.0991 lows, as it trades near 1.1020 region amid broad US dollar strength and ahead of the European open.

Asian equities remain mostly positive, cheering a mild recovery in the global coronavirus (COVID-19) hot-spots and upbeat China PMIs, while heading in

Asian shares take clues from upbeat China PMIs but fail to ignore virus fears.Numbers in Italy, Spain and the UK have started weakening but lockdown concerns are still high.World Bank predicts 24 million people to struggle with poverty in East Asia and the Pacific.Asian equities remain mostly positive, cheering a mild recovery in the global coronavirus (COVID-19) hot-spots and upbeat China PMIs, while heading into the European open on Tuesday. Even so, risk-tone remains challenged on concerns that the pandemic leaves millions in poverty. In its report on Monday, the World Bank warned of “substantially higher risk” among households that depend on industries particularly vulnerable to the impact of Covid-19, per the Bloomberg. The report also cited fears for the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region while projecting a slowdown of EAP growth to 2.1%, 0.5% worst-case scenario, versus 5.8% growth projected for 2019. It was additionally mentioned in the report that China’s GDP could drop from 6.1% of 2019 to 2.3% during the current year. On the positive side, US President Donald Trump’s ruling out of national lockdown joins China’s surprisingly upbeat official PMI data. However, fresh lockdowns in Indonesia and extended stay-at-home in Italy recently weighed on the trade sentiment. While portraying the market’s risk-tone, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw in the minor positive territory around 0.70% whereas MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan drops 1.60%. Further, Japan’s NIKKEI reverses the early-day gains and declines 1.20% to 18,870 by the press time whereas stocks in China are flashing near 1.0% gains at the time of writing. Additionally, Indian share indices rise more than 2.0% currently as traders await the second tranche of government stimulus while ignoring growth outlook cut by S&P and Fitch. Furthermore, Australia’s ASX 200 drops 2.0% to 5,080 as positive data from China cuts odds favoring the additional stimulus from the largest customer. Though, New Zealand’s NZX 50 remains 1.0% positive amid hopes of recovery from the disease. Looking forward, a heavy economic docket in the West could keep global traders busy but COVID-19 headlines are less likely to lose their importance.

Denmark Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.6% in 4Q

The UK GDP second estimate revealed that the economy showed no growth, arriving at 0.0% QoQ in the fourth quarter of 2019 vs. 0.0% seen in the first r

UK Final Q4 GDP meets expectations across the time horizon.GBP/USD consolidates the recovery gains near 1.2350.The UK GDP second estimate revealed that the economy showed no growth, arriving at 0.0% QoQ in the fourth quarter of 2019 vs. 0.0% seen in the first readout while meeting the consensus forecasts of 0.0%. While on an annualized basis, the UK economy’s growth rate arrived at 1.1% in Q4, matching the expectations of +1.1% and up from +1.1% previous reading.

Denmark Gross Domestic Product (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 2.3% in 4Q

United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-5.6B, above forecasts (£-7B) in 4Q

United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) above expectations (0.9%) in 4Q: Actual (1.8%)

United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) above forecasts (-1%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.5%)

United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (1.1%) in 4Q

United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0%) in 4Q

Norway Credit Indicator below expectations (5%) in February: Actual (4.8%)

Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.3%) in February

Germany Import Price Index (YoY) came in at -2%, below expectations (-1.5%) in February

Denmark Unemployment Rate unchanged at 3.1% in February

Cable’s upside momentum could extend further in the near term, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for

Cable’s upside momentum could extend further in the near term, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for GBP to ‘stage another push higher’ did not materialize as it traded in a relatively narrow range (between 1.2318 and 1.2469) before ending the day slightly lower at 1.2419 (-0.19%). Upward momentum is beginning to show signs of tiring and this coupled with the still overbought conditions suggest limited upside risk for today. From here, GBP could drift lower to 1.2300, possibly even testing the next support at 1.2240. Resistance is at 1.2430 followed by last Friday’s top near 1.2485. The latter level is acting as a strong resistance now.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from last Friday (27 Mar, spot at 1.2200). As highlighted, the current recovery in GBP has scope to extend higher but the prospect for a move beyond 1.2550 is not high. On the downside, only a break of 1.2000 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1880) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”  

EUR/USD has been on the back foot as a turbulent quarter is drawing to an end. How is the world's most popular currency pair positioned on the charts?

EUR/USD has been on the back foot as a turbulent quarter is drawing to an end. How is the world's most popular currency pair positioned on the charts?    The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that euro/dollar has robust support at 1.0972, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month, the Simp[le Moving Average 5-one-day, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week. Further down, the next significant cushion is at 1.0880, where the previous yearly, the SMA 50-4h, the SMA 200-1h, and the SMA 10-one-day meet up. Resistance levels are spread out, with one hurdle awaiting at 1.1046, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the previous 4h-high, and the 100-day SMA.  Further up, 1.1091, is where the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and the previous monthly high converge.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Italy’s daily newspaper, La Stampa, reports on Tuesday, the government is reportedly set to extend the lockdown until May, 4. Italian Prime Minister (

Italy’s daily newspaper, La Stampa, reports on Tuesday, the government is reportedly set to extend the lockdown until May, 4. Italian Prime Minister (PM) Conte said two weeks ago, Italy will remain under lockdown beyond previous deadlines due to expire this Friday. Markets were speculation that the lockdown could be extended until Easter (mid-April), as the coronavirus spread shows no signs of abating in the worst-hit European economy. EUR/USD reaction The shared currency shrugs-off the downbeat news, as EUR/USD extends its bounce on the 1.10 handle, having dipped to 1.0991 on the broad US dollar surge in the Asian session.

USD/CHF keeps the previous day’s U-turn while taking rounds to 0.9600 ahead of the European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the pair struggles around

USD/CHF extends Monday’s recovery moves from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.50-day SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement question buyers.USD/CHF keeps the previous day’s U-turn while taking rounds to 0.9600 ahead of the European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the pair struggles around 50% Fibonacci retracement of its fall from October 2019 while also staying below 50-day SMA. However, price-positive RSI conditions seem to push the pair towards the immediate SMA resistance near 0.9670 ahead of questioning 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9705. In a case where the bulls dominate past-0.9705, January month high surrounding 0.9770 will be on their radars. Alternatively, a daily close below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9505 can aim for 0.9410 and 0.9320 during the further downside. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Sideways  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD is seen keeping the broad-based side-line trading for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD is seen keeping the broad-based side-line trading for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for EUR yesterday was that it ‘could move above 1.1150 but a sustained advance above 1.1200 appears unlikely’. However, EUR dropped quickly from 1.1146 and hit an overnight low of 1.1008. Upward pressure from the past few days has more or less dissipated and the current weakness could extend lower to 1.0970 (next support is at 1.0920). Resistance is at 1.1070 followed by 1.1110. The 1.1149 high is not expected to come into the picture.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from last Friday (27 Mar, spot at 1.1050). As highlighted, while the immediate bias is tilted to the upside, any advance is viewed as part of a broad 1.0840/1.1200 range. The rapid retreat from 1.1149 yesterday reinforces our view and from here, unless EUR breaks below 1.0840, there is still chance for EUR to test the major resistance at 1.1200.”

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 31: The US dollar has been extending its gradual recovery, gaining ground against majors while stock f

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 31: The US dollar has been extending its gradual recovery, gaining ground against majors while stock futures are leaning lower after US indexes rallied on Monday. US coronavirus cases continue rising and have topped 160,000. Additional states have announced lockdowns while President Donald Trump extended the guidance for social distancing through April and said that seeing fewer than 100,000 fatalities would be an achievement. Figures from New York, the epicenter of the disease, remain of high interest.  More Is a US recession inevitable? What does the history of consumer sentiment tell us? The World Health Organization has said that coronavirus may have peaked in Europe. The number of new cases in Italy and Spain has been stabilizing and provide hope. Spain is under more severe lockdown measures, and Italy is grappling with growing poverty in the south. Eurozone Consumer Price Index figures for February are projected to rise by a slower rate, yet markets are focused on Covid-19 statistics. Deaths keep rising in the UK, which has changed its counting method. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under pressure to increase the pace of tests. Final Gross Domestic Product figures for the fourth quarter are due out.Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Indexes have come out above expectations, with the Manufacturing PMI at 52 in March and the Non-Manufacturing at 52.3. Both figures were projected to remain below 50 – reflecting contraction. The US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge for March is forecast to collapse amid the health crisis, tumbling from the high level of 130.7 recorded in February. See US Conference Board Consumer Confidence March Preview: Three years vanish in an instantEnd-of-quarter flows are set to rock markets today and make cause jitters, especially around the end of the European session.Oil prices are attempting a recovery after another sell-off on Monday. WTI is trading around $21, recovering from a dip below $20. The Canadian dollar has been pressured by falling crude prices and now faces a test via monthly GDP statistics for January, expected to rise by 0.1%. Cryptocurrencies ave been holding onto familiar ranges, with Bitcoin trading around $6,400. US labor market figures are of high interest in the next few days. see: How will coronavirus impact the Unemployment Rate after causing a surge in Jobless Claims?

FX option expiries for Mar 31 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0900 762m 1.1000 1.4bn 1.1015 522m

FX option expiries for Mar 31 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0900 762m 1.1000 1.4bn 1.1015 522m 1.1036 598m 1.1075 525m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          108.50 366m 109.00 1.9bn 109.70 582m

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), has regained the 99.00 mark and above and keeps the bid tone unchanged for the second session in

DXY adds to Monday’s gains above the 99.00 mark.US stocks advanced on rumours of extra easing.US CB’s Consumer Confidence next of note in the docket.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), has regained the 99.00 mark and above and keeps the bid tone unchanged for the second session in a row. US Dollar Index looks to data, COVID-19 The index is extending the positive start of the week, retaking the key barrier at 99.00 the figure and managing to climb as high as the 99.60 area after losing some impetus. The improved tone in the US markets benefited the dollar, lifted US yields – where the 10-year benchmark edged higher to 0.73% and beyond and encouraged equities to reverse Friday’s pullback and resume the upside, with both the S&P and DowJones gaining more than 3% at the beginning of the week. Later in the NA session, house prices tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index are due seconded by JOLTs Job Openings and the more relevant Consumer Confidence gauged by the Conference Board. What to look for around USD DXY has regained the upper hand so far this week after bottoming out in the 98.30 region in past sessions. In addition, the greenback has so far managed to keep business above the key 200-day SMA and therefore maintaining the constructive outlook while re-targeting the triple-digit barrier. However, speculation of extra stimulus carries the potential to undermine the recovery in the buck and thus leaving the upside somewhat limited, all against the backdrop of unremitting concerns around the fallout of the coronavirus. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is gaining 0.33% at 99.47 and a breakout of 100.49 (78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) would expose 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20) and finally 103.65 (monthly high December 2016). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) seconded by 98.01 (200-day SMA) and then 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop).

Forex today in Asia witnessed some volatile swings in early trading hours this Tuesday, as it is the last trading data for Japan’s fiscal year and the

Forex today in Asia witnessed some volatile swings in early trading hours this Tuesday, as it is the last trading data for Japan’s fiscal year and the end of the quarter globally. In lieu of the same, most majors saw the mini flash crash as the US dollar spiked hard across its major peers after the Japanese traders piled on to US currency amid talks of dollar shortage and fiscal year-end. Meanwhile, a positive surprise delivered by the Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMIs helped extend the overnight risk-on mood into Asia. However, the Asian stocks and US equity futures failed to hold onto early gains as the coronavirus spread showed no signs of slowing down while its growing economic costs kept investors on the edge. Amongst the G10 fx space, USD/JPY dipped to 107.78 but rebounded almost a big figure on the dollar’s sharp surge, having pierced through 108.00 to reach 108.71 highs. The Aussie slipped to 0.6079 lows but staged a solid comeback to 0.6200 after Chinese PMI returned to expansion in March. The Canadian dollar failed to benefit from the oil-price rebound, as USD/CAD traded with mild gains around 1.4200. EUR/USD stalled its recovery just above 1.1050 and fell briefly below 1.1000 while GBP/USD was the main laggard, with 1.2300 back on sellers’ radar. Meanwhile, gold prices wavered in a familiar 1600/1650 range, awaiting fresh catalyst for the next direction.   Main topics in Asia US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: Seeking to promote more domestic manufacturing US Pres. Trump: Prepared if the virus strikes again in the fall season Mnuchin: Americans will begin receiving economic impact payments in the next 3 weeks China Manufacturing PMIs arrive at 52.0 (Reuters poll 45.0) vs 35.7 in February US is set to lose its spot as world's top oil producer, energy experts say - CNBC World Bank: China’s 2020 GDP forecast is 2.3% PBOC’s Ma: Setting GDP target may force China to resort to flood-like stimulus Japan Economic Minister Nishimura: Job market held up in feb but i have strong sense of crisis as situation could worsen Coronavirus update: S. Korea reports 125 new cases, China adds 48 imported cases Japan’s Motegi issues advice against travel to 73 countries, regions Japan’s Aso: G20 financial leaders to discuss steps on virus Tuesday WHO’s Kasai: Coronavirus epidemic is 'far from over' in Asia-Pacific UK consumer and business morale hit by coronavirus crisis - Surveys Key focus ahead         Markets brace for a busy European session ahead, with plenty of economic releases due on the cards, kicking-off with the UK Current Account and Final GDP data due at 0600 GMT. At the same time, the German Import Price Index data will be reported. Next of note remains the German Unemployment Rate and Change data, dropping in at 0755 GMT, amid the virus impact. The Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also grab some attention at 0900 GMT. In NA session, the Canadian GDP and the US CB Consumer Confidence will stand out among other second-tier macro releases. The American Petroleum Institute’s (API) report on weekly US Crude Oil Stock data, due at 2030 GMT, will be closely eyed by the oil and CAD traders for fresh trading impulse. Investors will continue to pay close attention to the US dollar price-action and broad risk trends amid coronavirus-related updates while heading into the quarterly close. EUR/USD eyes indecisive monthly close EUR/USD is on track to close March with a Doji candle, which represents indecision in the market. Doji's high and low are focal points for the bull-bear tussle. Risk reset and dollar weakness look likely with China's PMI bettering estimates. GBP/USD extends losses below 1.2400 ahead of UK GDP GBP/USD remains on the back foot below 1.2400. The EU-UK tussle over Brexit deadline renewed amid coronavirus. Numbers of cases drop in the UK but experts doubt the conclusion. UK GDP, US data can offer intermediate direction. US Conference Board Consumer Confidence March Preview: Three years vanish in an instant Markets focused on the virus effect on consumer attitudes and spending. Michigan sentiment shed 11.9 points in March to the lowest since October 2016. March CB Survey cutoff date mid-month may have missed the worst impact.  

WTI extends its pullback moves from the 17-year low while trading near $21.00 ahead of the European session on Tuesday. China’s March month official P

WTI benefits from upbeat China data.Risk-tone remains sluggish with US bond yields retracing earlier gains, Asian stocks mixed.API data, coronavirus headlines for fresh impulse.WTI extends its pullback moves from the 17-year low while trading near $21.00 ahead of the European session on Tuesday. China’s March month official PMIs accelerated the black gold’s recovery from the multi-year bottom whereas risk reset also offered additional help. China’s official Manufacturing PMI crossed 45 forecast and 35.7 prior with 52.00 whereas the Non-Manufacturing gauge surged to 52.3 compared to 37.8 expected and 29.6 earlier reading. Considering the risk headlines, US President Donald Trump’s ruling out of the nationwide lockdown and upbeat comments in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), stating that China has seemingly gotten the virus outbreak under control, favored the risks. Even so, concerns about the spread of the deadly virus are still stronger to keep some of the Asian stocks under pressure while the US 10-year treasury yields take rounds to 0.70%. Moving on, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) the weekly private inventory data, up for publishing around 20:30 GMT, prior -1.25M, will be important. Also on the oil traders’ radars will be the supply side news and virus updates. It’s worth mentioning that US President Donald Trump talked to his Russian counterpart the previous day and both sides, as per Fox News, agreed on the importance of stability in global energy markets. However, no major solution to the Saudi-Russian rift has been suggested and can keep weighing on the energy prices coupled with the pandemic. Technical analysis The bulls are less likely to return, even for short-term, unless prices cross the previous week high beyond $25.00.  

Japan Annualized Housing Starts increased to 0.871M in February from previous 0.813M

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) above forecasts (-14.7%) in February: Actual (-12.3%)

Japan Construction Orders (YoY) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (-0.7%) in February

USD/CAD registers 0.10% gains while extending the previous day’s pullback from 21-day SMA to 1.4180 amid the pre-Europe session on Tuesday.

USD/CAD remains mildly bid near the three-day top.The pair extends run-up from 21-day SMA but stays below 10-day SMA amid bearish MACD.23.6% Fibonacci retracement, eight-day-old falling trend line adds to resistance.USD/CAD registers 0.10% gains while extending the previous day’s pullback from 21-day SMA to 1.4180 amid the pre-Europe session on Tuesday. While 10-day SMA near 1.4290 is on the buyers’ radars, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s upside between February 21 and March 19, coupled with short-term falling trend line around 1.4320/25 will limit the pair’s further upside. If at all buyers manage to cross 1.4325 on a daily closing basis, 1.4370, 1.4420 and 1.4560 can check buyers ahead of offering them the monthly top near 1.4670. On the contrary, bearish MACD can help the sellers question 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3760 if USD/CAD prices flash a daily close past-21-day SMA level of 1.3980. It should also be noted that the early-month gap near 1.3440 will be in the market’s attention if the quote stays weak below 1.3760. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Sideways  

EUR/USD has witnessed wild swings in both directions over the last four weeks and is on track to end March on an indecisive or flat note. The currency

EUR/USD is on track to close March with a Doji candle, which represents indecision in the market. Doji's high and low are focal points for the bull-bear tussle. Risk reset and dollar weakness looks likely with China's PMI bettering estimates.EUR/USD has witnessed wild swings in both directions over the last four weeks and is on track to end March on an indecisive or flat note. The currency pair rose to a high of 1.1495 on March 9, extending the late February rebound from 1.07778, as markets offered US dollars in response to the coronavirus outbreak in the US and the resulting risk aversion in the equity markets. The situation worsened by mid-March as the relentless sell-off in the stock markets triggered a liquidity crisis and a global dash for the US dollar. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1495 to 1.0636 in the 14 days to March 23 before regaining some poise to trade above 1.10. At press time, the spot is trading largely unchanged on the month at 1.1030. The monthly candle has taken the shape of a Doji candle, a sign of indecision in the market place. From a long-term perspective, the high and low of the Doji candle at 1.1495 and 1.0636, respectively, are the levels to beat for the bulls and the bears. As for Tuesday, the focus will be on the broader market sentiment, which could turn pro-risk, as the China data released in Asia showed the manufacturing activity rebounded sharply to above-50 levels or expansion territory. A risk-on rally will likely weaken the haven demand for the US dollar and push EUR/USD higher. On the data front, the German Import Price Index for February and the Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release along with the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index for March. Across the pond, the US Consumer Confidence and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index are due for release. Technical levels  

Fresh concerns over the Brexit deadline join hands with doubts over the UK’s receding coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and downbeat business sentiment to

GBP/USD remains on the back foot.EU-UK tussle over Brexit deadline renewed amid coronavirus.Numbers of cases drop in the UK but experts doubt the conclusion.UK GDP, US data can offer intermediate direction, COVID-19/Brexit will be the key.Fresh concerns over the Brexit deadline join hands with doubts over the UK’s receding coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and downbeat business sentiment to exert downside pressure on the GBP/USD pair. That said, the Cable pair currently trades 0.60% down to 1.2344 while heading into the London open on Tuesday. Reuters recently came out with the news, based on surveys conducted by the market research firm GfK and Lloyds Bank, suggesting a drop in the UK’s consumer and business confidence. Not only sentiment indices but the pandemic has also renewed the EU-UK tussle over the December 31, 2020 deadline after the EU’s political group urged Britain to do the “responsible thing” and extend the Brexit transition period, per The Guardian. However, the UK PM Boris Johnson’s spokesperson turned down any such scope while stating that the transition period ends on December 31, 2020. This is enshrined in UK law. The UK diplomat also turned down the hopes of any further lockdown measures while signaling a sustained fight against the epidemic during the 12 weeks. The British Pound earlier gained on Monday as the latest numbers suggested a drop from March 27 figures of 2,900 to 2,400 new cases on 29 March. Though, The Guardian raises doubts on whether to term it as a trend while relying on expert comments. On the positive side, the UK is extending efforts and is close to open the world’s largest hospital built in 10-days while also ordering more ventilators, nearly 15,000, than the total number it says it needs to cope with the coronavirus pandemic. Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump suggested no to nationwide stay-at-home order while helping to extend the previous day’s risk reset. As a result, the US 10-year treasury yields and most Asian stocks mark mild gains by the press time. The final reading of the UK’s fourth quarter (Q4) GDP, expected to march 0.0% initial forecast, could offer immediate direction ahead of the US data. However, news concerning the Brexit and the virus updates will not lose their importance in the meantime. Technical analysis Failure to cross 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March 09-20 downside increases the odds of the pair’s further declines towards March 18 high near 1.2130. Alternatively, a 200-day SMA level near 1.2670 adds to the pair’s upside barriers beyond the said Fibonacci retracement levels surrounding 1.2520.  

According to the latest surveys by the market research firm GfK and Lloyds Bank, the UK consumer and business confidence was hit by the coronavirus pa

According to the latest surveys by the market research firm GfK and Lloyds Bank, the UK consumer and business confidence was hit by the coronavirus pandemic induced government shutdowns and mounting economic risks, as cited by Reuters. Key findings “Market research firm GfK said its index of consumer confidence — which was also conducted in the first half of March — slipped to -7 from -9 in February, which had been its strongest level since August 2018.” Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK, said: “While we have a long way to drop before we match the devastating numbers seen in July 2008 when the Overall Index Score crashed to -39 points, lockdown Britain can only expect further deterioration.” “Gfk reported a sharp, eight-point fall in the willingness of consumers to make major purchases.” Meanwhile, “the business confidence index from Lloyds Bank hit its joint lowest level since the depths of the global financial crisis 11 years ago in the week that started on March 9, touching -3%. Over the first two weeks of March combined, confidence amongst companies sank by 17 points to 6% and hiring intentions fell 12 points to 4%, Lloyds said. More than 70% of businesses said they were or would be affected by a coronavirus.”  

While the coronavirus outbreak has caused a rapid and sharp downturn in the economic activity, it is impossible to predict how deep the recession woul

While the coronavirus outbreak has caused a rapid and sharp downturn in the economic activity, it is impossible to predict how deep the recession would be, former US Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said on Monday, according to Xinhua News and Reuters News.  Key quotes The downturn has been rapid and sharp and it's different than any we've ever experienced in America. Every indication so far suggests there will be a huge plunge in output in the second quarter. Frankly, it's impossible to know at this point how deep the recession will be. It depends critically on how long the period of social distancing lasts. The best-case scenario would be a V-shaped recession, but if containment measures lead to more layoffs and bankruptcies, a prolonged recession could be seen. 
 

Wang Daoshu, Chief Auditor of China's State Taxation Administration, said in a briefing Tuesday, they are monitoring trade situations and studying tax

Wang Daoshu, Chief Auditor of China's State Taxation Administration, said in a briefing Tuesday, they are monitoring trade situations and studying tax reduction and other policies to stabilize situation affected by the coronavirus outbreak. Further comments Coronavirus has negatively impacted exporters. Tax bureau studying allowing more foreign firms to benefit from preferential policies including tax reduction. Coronavirus update: S. Korea reports 125 new cases, China adds 48 imported cases USD/CNH: Pressured below 7.1100 after China Purchasing Managers Index

One-month risk reversals on USD/INR, a gauge of calls to puts, rose to a fresh 7-year high of 3.50 on Monday, indicating a sustained demand for the bu

One-month risk reversals on USD/INR, a gauge of calls to puts, rose to a fresh 7-year high of 3.50 on Monday, indicating a sustained demand for the bullish bets or call options, which give the holder the right but not the obligation to buy the underlying asset at a specified price on or before a specified date.  The previous seven-year high of 3.475 was reached on March 25. The gauge bottomed out near 0.20 at the end of December 2019.  The USD/INR pair closed at 75.39 on Monday, having hit a record high of 76.45 earlier this month. Despite the pullback, the risk reversals continue to rise - a sign the investors expect the strength in the INR to be short-lived.  Risk reversals

USD/JPY takes clues from Monday’s Doji formation while rising 0.63% to 108.45 during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair clears 61.8% Fibonacci r

USD/JPY holds onto recovery gainsThe previous day’s trend reversal signaling candlestick formation, sustained break of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement favor buyers.21-day SMA offers immediate support.USD/JPY takes clues from Monday’s Doji formation while rising 0.63% to 108.45 during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair clears 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its fall from February 20. Even so, a confluence of 100-day and 50-day SMAs near 108.90-109.00 could question the pair’s immediate upside, a break of which could escalate the recovery moves towards 109.70/80. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s sustained rise past-109.80 needs a sustained break beyond the monthly top near 111.70/75 to aim for February month high around 112.25. Meanwhile, a 21-day SMA level of 107.75 offers the immediate support while a daily closing below Monday’s low near 107.10 will defy the candlestick formation and drag the USD/JPY prices towards March 12 high near 106.10. USD/JPY daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

An official from the World Health Organization (WHO) told Reuters on Tuesday, the coronavirus epidemic is 'far from over' in Asia, Pacific. More to co

An official from the World Health Organization (WHO) told Reuters on Tuesday, the coronavirus epidemic is 'far from over' in Asia, Pacific. More to come …

According to the analysts at Goldman Sachs, the US stock markets are likely to rebound and end the year higher by about 20% when compared to the curre

According to the analysts at Goldman Sachs, the US stock markets are likely to rebound and end the year higher by about 20% when compared to the current levels. The bank noted: “Strategically, we continue to expect the S&P 500 will rise to 3,000 by year's end.” Tactically, however, we believe it is likely that the market will turn lower in the coming weeks, and caution investors against chasing this rally,” the analysts cautioned. The US banking giant was quick to that there three things to watch out for to confirm the US equity markets have bottomed out. “The viral spread in the United States must begin to slow so that the ultimate economic impact of the virus and containment efforts can be understood. There must be evidence that "extraordinary measures" taken by the Federal Reserve and Congress to support the U.S. economy are sufficient. While the willingness of policymakers to use all the tools at their disposal is clear, only time will tell to what extent the actions succeed in limiting defaults, [business] closures and layoffs. Investor sentiment and positioning must bottom out. Goldman analysts point to their U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator, which combines nine measures of equity positioning, noting that it has only declined by 1.4 standard deviations, versus standard deviations of between -2 and -3 in recent corrections.” The main indices on Wall Street settled Monday, with over 3% gains. S&P 500 jumped 3.35% to 2,626 points, Dow 30 rallied 3.20% to 22,327 while NASDAQ leaped 3.62% to 7,774.50.

Mexico's Peso (MXN) is on track to register its biggest monthly loss in over a decade. The MXN is currently trading at 23.8141 per US dollar, represen

The Mexican Peso is eyeing the biggest monthly loss since May 2008. Mexico has declared health emergency as the number of virus cases has crossed above 1,000.Mexico's Peso (MXN) is on track to register its biggest monthly loss in over a decade. The MXN is currently trading at 23.8141 per US dollar, representing a 21% decline from the opening rate of 15.5995 per dollar observed on March 3. The currency last witnessed over a 21 percent decline in May 2008. The latest double-digit decline could be associated with the coronavirus outbreak across the globe and in Mexico and the resulting fears of a global recession. Further, the oil price decline added to MXN's woes. The black gold is currently reporting over 50 percent losses on a month-to-date basis. Mexico declares emergency Mexico's Peso could continue to lose ground in the near-term as the government has announced a health emergency in response to the number of coronavirus cases passing 1,000. Health officials reported a total of 1,094 cases of coronavirus on Monday, up from 993 a day earlier and 28 deaths from the virus, up from 20, according to Reuters News. Mexico has also extended a suspension of non-essential activities to April 30. That could cause a substantial decline in the activity across various sectors of the economy. Technical levels  

Following a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters that the Group of 20 Financial leaders will discuss ways on

Following a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters that the Group of 20 Financial leaders will discuss ways on Tuesday to proceed with concrete steps to respond to the coronavirus. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will hold a conference call on Tuesday night Japan time to discuss the issue, he added. Japan’s Motegi issues advice against travel to 73 countries, regions Japan Economic Minister Nishimura: Job market held up in Feb but i have strong sense of crisis as situation could worsen

Gold's sideways churn in the range of $1,630 to $1,610 continues for the third day. With the decline in the price volatility, the Bollinger bands have

Gold's hourly chart shows a Bollinger band squeeze. The direction of the range breakout will likely set the tone for the next move in the yellow metal. Gold's sideways churn in the range of $1,630 to $1,610 continues for the third day. With the decline in the price volatility, the Bollinger bands have narrowed.   Bollinger bands are volatility indicators placed two standard deviations above and below the price's 20-day moving average. A low-volatility period often paves the way for a big move on either side. The focus, therefore, is on the upper and lower bands currently located at $$1,626 and $1,612, respectively. An hourly close above the upper band would imply a range breakout and open the doors to a test of recent highs above $1,640. Alternatively, a range breakdown would expose the support at $1,594. The latter looks likely as the 4-hour chart relative strength index is reporting a bearish divergence. Also, the dollar index, which tracks the value of the US dollar against majors, is flashing green near99.38, having bounced up from 98.30 on Monday. Hourly chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi urged the citizens not to travel to about a third of the countries in the world, in another effort to tack

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi urged the citizens not to travel to about a third of the countries in the world, in another effort to tackle the coronavirus spread at home. Motegi issued travel advice against 73 countries and regions, including the hardest hit – the US, the UK and Europe. USD/JPY reaction USD/JPY is little changed on the above news, keeping its range trade intact around mid-108s following a spike to 108.71 highs on Tokyo-fix led sharp US dollar surge.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday, South Korea confirmed 125 new coronavirus cases, with the total count now at 9,78

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Monday, South Korea confirmed 125 new coronavirus cases, with the total count now at 9,786. The South reported six new deaths, bringing up the death toll to 158 vs. 152 a day earlier. Meanwhile, China’s National Health Commission said on Tuesday, Mainland China reported 48 new cases on Monday, up from 31 new infections a day earlier. However, all of the 48 cases were imported, bringing the total number of imported cases in China to 771 as of Monday, per Reuters. The total number of infections confirmed in the Mainland stood at 81,518, with the death toll at 3,305. The city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak in China, reported no new infections for the seventh straight day. Market reaction The broad market sentiment continues to be driven by a surge in the demand for the greenback across its main competitors, given that it was the last Tokyo fix of the Japanese fiscal year, which added to the volatility. The haven demand for the buck also remains unpinned amid rising coronavirus cases globally. Most majors saw wild moves before stabilizing, as risk-on mood prevails, with the Asian shares mostly higher. Markets cheer an unexpected expansion in the Chinese Manufacturing and Services sector activity reports.

While taking clues from the surprisingly positive China activity data, USD/CNH snaps the previous two-day recovery while declining to 1.1080 amid earl

USD/CNH fails to hold onto recovery gains.China’s official PMIs surprised markets with positive figures.World Bank recently downgraded China’s 2020 GDP forecast, PBOC adviser signals ‘flood-like’ stimulus.Risk-tone remains mildly positive.While taking clues from the surprisingly positive China activity data, USD/CNH snaps the previous two-day recovery while declining to 1.1080 amid early Tuesday. China’s March month official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs surprised marked by crossing 50.00 mark against expectations of further contraction amid coronavirus (COVID-19) woes. While the headline Manufacturing PMI crossed 45 forecast and 35.7 prior with 52.00, the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 compared to 37.8 expected and 29.6 earlier reading. While the official data favors the recovery of Chinese yuan, updates from the PBOC adviser and World Bank seem to cap the pair’s declines. An external adviser to the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy committee (MPC), Ma Jun, said that setting a GDP target may force China to resort to flood-like stimulus. Additionally, the policymakers said that GDP growth between 4 to 5% will be difficult to achieve for China. On the other hand, World Bank downgraded China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% versus 6.1% reported for 2019. It should also be noted that the market’s risk-tone remains mildly positive with comments from US President offering a smooth carrying of the previous day’s risk reset. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw around 0.70% with most Asian markets, also in China, marking profits by the press time. Following the busy morning in Asia, mainly due to the comparatively heavy economic calendar, investors may now return to COVID-19 news while searching for fresh direction. Technical analysis A seven-day-old falling trend line near 7.1225/30 guards the pair’s immediate upside whereas February month high close to 7.0570 could please the sellers during the further weakness.  

NZD/USD has regained poise and is back above 0.60, having dropped by 75 pips from 0.6025 to 0.5950 in the five in the five minutes to 00:55 UTC. The m

NZD/USD dropped 75 pips in just five minutes as dollar spiked against the Japanese yen. A major portion of the flash crash drop has been erased.Upbeat China PMI could boost risk sentiment and keep the NZD better bid.NZD/USD has regained poise and is back above 0.60, having dropped by 75 pips from 0.6025 to 0.5950 in the five in the five minutes to 00:55 UTC. The mini flash crash in NZD/USD and other pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD coincided with the sudden rise in USD/JPY from 108.16 to 108.70 seen while heading into the Tokyo daily fix. The dollar, however, has given up a major portion of the gains in the last few minutes. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6010 and could rise further to session highs near 0.6305 as the futures tied to the S&P 500 are signaling risk reset with a 0.45% gain. More importantly, China's data released at 01:00 GMT showed the manufacturing activity in the world's second-largest economy rebounded sharply to expansion territory in March. The NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.00, bettering the estimate of 45 by a big margin and up from the preceding month's reading of 35.7. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also rose to 52.3 from 29.6, convincingly beating the estimate of 37.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The upbeat data is likely to ease fears regarding a deeper coronavirus-led economic slowdown in China and across the globe. Technical levels  

The Japanese Economic Minister, Nishimura, says job market held up in Feb but I have a strong sense of crisis as the situation could worsen. Key notes

The Japanese Economic Minister, Nishimura,  says job market held up in Feb but I have a strong sense of crisis as the situation could worsen. Key notes Nishimura says Japan is not at stage to declare state of emergency. Nishimurasays govt has sense of crisis. Says Japan is holding up but new cases of coronavirus will surge if we ease up. Says will have big impact on economy if major cities such as Tokyo and Osaka adopt lockdown. Says govt will examine comprehensively whether to declare state of emergency. Says considering details of cash payouts for people in need as part of economic package for coronavirus. Says want to carry out big campaign to boost demand once coronavirus outbreak comes to end. Says concerned we may see bad numbers in factory output in march as companies adjust production. Says will adopt steps to protect jobs in economic package for coronavirus. Says job market held up in Feb but I have strong sense of crisis as situation could worsen. Market implications The world needs to see countries in recovery and such headlines are alarming. The bell curve is what we are all relying on for hope of a return to some state of normality as far as our daily lives go and for the sake of the world economy. Markets will not like deteriorating 'get-well' soon' sentiment just as China gets back to work, a glimmer of hope.       

In an interview with the Chinese state media on Tuesday, Ma Jun, an external adviser to the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy committee

In an interview with the Chinese state media on Tuesday, Ma Jun, an external adviser to the People's Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy committee (MPC), said that setting a GDP target may force China to resort to flood-like stimulus.  He added that GDP growth between 4 to 5% will be difficult to achieve for China. This comes despite a positive surprise seen on the Chinese official Manufacturing and Services PMI reports released earlier today, with the business activity and factories getting back to normal operations following the coronavirus outbreak led shutdown. Meanwhile, the World Bank projected a lower growth scenario for China at 2.3%, in its latest report.  

In its latest report published on Tuesday, the World Bank outlined a 'baseline' forecasts for China’s economic growth while predicting a lower-case sc

In its latest report published on Tuesday, the World Bank outlined a 'baseline' forecasts for China’s economic growth while predicting a lower-case scenario. The bank projected 2.3% and 0.1% respectively vs. the 6.1% that was reported for 2019.   More to come …

EUR/USD nears the short-term support confluence including 100-HMA and the weekly support line while taking rounds to 1.1015 amid early Tuesday’s tradi

EUR/USD extends Friday’s pullback moves, stays above near-term key support.Sluggish MACD suggests a lack of momentum.200-HMA offers additional support after a downside break below the support confluence.EUR/USD nears the short-term support confluence including 100-HMA and the weekly support line while taking rounds to 1.1015 amid early Tuesday’s trading. That said, the pair recently dropped, from 1.1030 to 1.0983, in a flash crash amid broad US dollar strength but failed to extend the losses and bounced afterward. Even so, sluggish MACD and the pair’s pullback from multi-day top keep sellers hopeful. Though, a clear break below 1.0980/75 becomes necessary for the pair’s drop towards March 24 high near 1.0890 and 200-HMA level of 1.0870. On the upside, 1.1090 and the Friday’s top near 1.1150 could keep the near-term advances guarded. EUR/USD hourly chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The US is likely to lose its spot as world's top oil producer this year as budgets have been slashed and capital investments have been put on hold in

The US is likely to lose its spot as world's top oil producer this year as budgets have been slashed and capital investments have been put on hold in America's shale country in the wake of the massive price slide and the sheer destruction of demand brought on by the coronavirus outbreak across the globe.  The US was a top oil producer globally in 2018, courtesy of the shale oil boom.  Key quotes “If we continue where we are with these low prices, we’ll see a big decline in U.S. oil production. It will no longer be number one,” Dan Yergin, energy expert and vice chairman of IHS Markit, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday. "We see in this coming month of April what could be a 20 million barrel a day decline in oil demand. It’s unprecedented. That’s six times larger than the biggest downturn during the financial crisis period," Yergin said. WTI oil tumbled to an 18-year low of $21.80 per barrel on Monday and Brent oil slipped to $21.68 per barrel. Oil benchmarks are currently down 54 percent on a month-to-date basis.  Saudi Arabia earlier this month slashed its crude prices for Asian clients, reversing course from supporting price via output cuts in a bid to capture greater market share. Russia too followed suit, adding to bearish pressures around prices. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0851 versus Monday's fix at 7.0477.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0851 versus Monday's fix at 7.0477.

AUD/JPY clocked session highs above 67.00, extending the recovery from session lows near 65.99 after China data bettered estimates. Manufacturing PMI

Above-forecast China PMI strengthened the bid tone around the Aussie dollar. AUD/JPY added more than 25 pips to hit a session high of 67.05.Upbeat China data may revive risk sentiment and power further gains in AUD/JPY.AUD/JPY clocked session highs above 67.00, extending the recovery from session lows near 65.99 after China data bettered estimates.  Manufacturing PMI beats estimates The NBS manufacturing PMI for March came in at 52.00, beating the forecasted figure of 45 by a big margin and up from February's 35.7. The NBS PMI mainly focuses on state-owned enterprises.  The Non-Manufacturing also bettered estimates of 37.8 by a big margin by printing at 52.3. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.  With the government's PMIs returning to levels above 50, the bid tone around the Aussie dollar strengthened, pushing the AUD/JPY higher from 66.75 to 67.05.  Looking forward, the pair may continue to gain altitude as the big beat on the Chinese PMI will likely bring cheer to the global equity markets and weaken the demand for the safe-haven Yen. The futures tied to the S&P 500 are already trading in the green. However, the AUD/JPY pair has retreated from session highs to 66.90. Technical levels  

Following its flash crash drop from 0.6190 to 0.6080, AUD/USD bounces back to 0.6165 amid the Asian session on Tuesday. While a fat finger is most lik

AUD/USD benefits from surprisingly positive data from the largest customer.Market’s risk-tone remains mildly positive, takes clues from the US off-late.Aussie data recently flashed mixed signals while comments from PBOC adviser signaled further stimulus from the largest customer.Following its flash crash drop from 0.6190 to 0.6080, AUD/USD bounces back to 0.6165 amid the Asian session on Tuesday. While a fat finger is most likely behind the latest flash crash, recovery in China’s official PMI data helped the pair to reimburse the losses. China’s official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs for March surprised markets with above 50.00 readings. In doing so, the headline manufacturing gauge crossed 45 forecast and 35.7 prior to flash 52.00 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 compared to 37.8 expected and 29.6 previous readouts. Earlier during the day, February month data from Australia suggested Private Sector Credit surged past 0.2% MoM forecast to 0.4% whereas HIA New Home Sales crossed -1.9% forecast and 5.7% prior with 6.2%. Before that, the weekly Consumer Confidence figures refreshed the record low while declining to 65.3 from 72.2 prior. Also recently driving the Aussie prices could be comments from the adviser of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The diplomat stated that setting GDP target may force China to resort to flood-like stimulus, GDP growth between 4 to 5% will be difficult to achieve for China. Having witnessed a slew of Aussie and China data, markets may seek fresh direction from coronavirus headlines. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily closing beyond 0.6200 mark, comprising 21-day SMA odds favoring the pair’s run-up to March 09 low near 0.6310 remains weak. Alternatively, 0.6080, 0.6000 round-figure and 10-day SMA near 0.5960 could entertain sellers during the pullback.  

China march official manufacturing PMI at 52.0 (Reuters poll 45.0) vs 35.7 in February. CHINA MARCH OFFICIAL SERVICES PMI RISES TO 52.3 VS FEBRUARY 2

China march official manufacturing PMI at 52.0 (Reuters poll 45.0) vs 35.7 in February. CHINA MARCH OFFICIAL SERVICES PMI RISES TO 52.3 VS FEBRUARY 29.6 More to come... Description The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) studies business conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.

China Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.3, above forecasts (37.8) in March

China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 52 above expectations (45) in March

GBP/USD flash crash, drops from 1.2379-1.2242. More to come...

GBP/USD flash crash, drops from 1.2379-1.2242. More to come...

Asian share markets are opening higher on Tuesday on the heels of a positive performance on Wall Street into month-end purchases as investors get set

Asian share markets are opening higher on Tuesday on the heels of a positive performance on Wall Street into month-end purchases as investors get set for the Chinese PMIs today at the top of the hour as factories began to re-open; More on that here.  Stock market performances MSCI's rise 0.7%. Japan's Nikkei+ 0.2%. South Korea +1.4%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 +0.3%. Coronavirus update, slowing of rise in cases Analysts at ANZ offered a summary of COVID-19 updates: Italian new COVID-19 cases rose 4,050, down from 5,217 on Sunday and a high of 6,153 last Thursday. Spain reported 812 deaths, down slightly from 838 Sunday. Whilst the data provided a glimmer of hope that lockdowns are working, experts continue to warn that it will be another 2-3 weeks before they can definitively tell if the measures are successful. London’s NHS Nightingale hospital at the Excel centre is set to open on Wednesday with 4,000 beds including ICU. It was built in about 10 days and will be the largest hospital in the world. Birmingham, Manchester, Glasgow, Cardiff and Belfast are also opening field hospitals which are now widespread across Europe. UK engineers have teamed up with Mercedes Formula One to develop a machine that directly supports oxygen to the lungs, preventing many patients from having to go onto a ventilator and reducing pressure on intensive care units. If clinical trials are successful this week, production will start next week. Incredible." Trade ministers from the Group of 20 major economies agreed on Monday to keep their markets open and ensure the flow of vital medical supplies. Nikkei levels  

While extending its pullback from the multi-year low, WTI takes the bids to $20.70 amid Tuesday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark recently benefit

WTI pulls back from the multi-year low.Trade sentiment recovers off-late, Trump-Putin agreed on the importance of stability in energy markets.API data, virus headlines will keep the oil traders entertained.While extending its pullback from the multi-year low, WTI takes the bids to $20.70 amid Tuesday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark recently benefited from the extended recovery in risk-tone whereas an absence of negative comments from the Trump-Putin call also helped the black gold. US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin talked to each other on a call during the previous day. Following the call, Fox News came out with the statements, while relying on the White House spokesman Judd Deere, which said, “President Trump and President Putin agreed on the importance of stability in global energy markets.” Other than the call between the key diplomats, comments from the US policymakers also recently helped the oil prices. In his coronavirus (COVID-19) Task Force Briefings, US President Trump ruled out calls of nationwide stay-at-home order whereas US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin portrayed the speed delivering the aid payments. Furthermore, the risk recovery remained on the cards considering the latest numbers from Italy and Spain that suggest the pandemic is losing strength. While portraying the risk-tone, the US 10-year treasury yields gain four basis points (bps) to 0.71% while the US stock futures and Asian equities flash mild profits by the press time. Oil traders may now look forward to the weekly private inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), prior -1.25M, whereas virus headlines and updates concerning the Saudi-Russia rift over the production could also provide near-term direction. Technical analysis Unless trading past the previous week’s top surrounding $25.20, WTI is less likely to recall even short-term buyers.  

The USD/IDR pair is currently trading near 16,350, having tested dip demand with a drop to 15,440 on Friday. With the recovery from Friday's low to 16

USD/IDR looks north with a flag breakout on the 4-hour chart. The path of least resistance for Indonesia's Rupiah appears to be on the downside. The USD/IDR pair is currently trading near 16,350, having tested dip demand with a drop to 15,440 on Friday.  With the recovery from Friday's low to 16,350, the pair has confirmed a bull flag breakout on the 4-hour chart. The bullish continuation pattern indicates the pullback from the recent high of 17,154 has ended and the rise from the January low of 13,217 has resumed.  As a result, the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) could re-test the low of 15,440 reached on March 23. On the downside, a close under 15,440 (low of Friday's long-tailed candle) is needed to confirm a bearish reversal.  That level will likely come into play if the 4-hour chart support at 15,946 is breached. A violation there would invalidate the bull flag breakout.  4-hour chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 6.2%, above forecasts (-1.9%) in February

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) increased to 2.8% in February from previous 2.5%

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) above forecasts (0.2%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

GBP/USD is lacking a clear directional bias for the second day and is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle or a contracting price range, as seen on t

GBP/USD is consolidating in a narrowing price range. A range breakdown looks likely as Monday's candle indicates bull fatigue.GBP/USD is lacking a clear directional bias for the second day and is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle or a contracting price range, as seen on the 15-minute chart.  An upside breakout would open the doors to re-test and possible break above the March 27 high of 1.2485. Alternatively, a range breakdown would imply an end of the bounce from the March 20 low of 1.1410 and could yield a drop to the hourly chart horizontal support at 1.2305.  The relative strength index on the 4-hour chart has dived out of an ascending trendline rising from March 23 lows. Meanwhile, Monday's inside day Doji candle is indicating bull fatigue.  As a result, the pair is more likely to suffer a symmetrical triangle breakdown. At press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2370, representing moderate losses on the day.  Hourly chartTrend: Neutral-to-bearish Technical levels  

GBP/JPY remains inside the two-week-old rising wedge, currently down -0.12% around 133.70, on the four-hour (H4) chart during Tuesday’s Asian session.

GBP/JPY struggles above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement inside a bearish chart pattern.200-bar SMA adds to the upside barrier, the previous week’s low can offer intermediate halt after the pattern confirmation.GBP/JPY remains inside the two-week-old rising wedge, currently down -0.12% around 133.70, on the four-hour (H4) chart during Tuesday’s Asian session. However, sellers will seek a sustained downside break of 133.15 support for fresh entry. In doing so, the previous week’s low, also comprising 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the early-month downside, around 127.60 could be on the radars as the immediate target. During the pair’s further declines past-127.60, 126.00 and the monthly low near 124.00 will lure the bears. Alternatively, an upside clearance of the formation resistance, at 135.40 now, will defy the bearish technical pattern and propel the GBP/JPY prices to a 200-bar SMA level of 136.40. Should there be a clear run-up above 136.40, 137.00 and the monthly high close to 139.20 may offer intermediate halts to 140.00 mark. GBP/JPY four-hour chart  Trend: Pullback expected  

The price of gold has been consolidating a move int the 1600s, slightly lower today as markets overnight pounced back with a vengeance as investor beg

Gold prices weak in a risk-on setting as investors see a light at end of tunnel. Chinese PMIs to set the scene for risk appetite start of month. The price of gold has been consolidating a move int the 1600s, slightly lower today as markets overnight pounced back with a vengeance as investor begin to look through the virus and are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $1,616.26, between a range of $1,615 and $1,626.55.  In New York, North American stocks resumed their climb with a 3.4% advance in the S&P 500, adding to sizeable gains the prior week. Meanwhile, US Treasuries rose on a 5bp selloff in the 30-year, with 10-year yields moving higher by 2bps to 0.70%.  COVID-19 and glimmers of hope The better mood on the street comes as a slowdown in new COVID-19 in Europe, in nations including Italy, Spain and the UK providing some glimmer of hope that the lockdowns are taking effect. The US President Donald Trump, adamant that American needs to get back to work, warned that the worst was yet to come and to brace for a peak over the next two weeks taking extra precautions while extending the lockdowns through to mid-April.  "In precious metals, the scramble for dollars appears to be easing as the Fed's extraordinary measures and central bank FX lines help to supply the global market with dollars," analysts at TD Securities note: "Indeed, gold holds the highest beta to pandemic sentiment in our cross-asset basket, underscoring that the recovery in prices coincides with a period of subsiding fear. In this context, we have cautioned that gold has performed poorly as a hedge against the virus' sharp deflationary impulse, as real rates surged in response, but we argue that the complex will perform smartly in the next phase of this narrative." Meanwhile, for today, a possible market mover will be in the release of China’s PMI for March while will set the tone for commodity markets, more on that here: China's PMIs Preview: Enjoy those blue skies while you still can, manufacturing is backGold levels    

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence came in at -63.5 below forecasts (-24.1) in March

New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook registered at -26.7%, below expectations (7.3%) in March

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) came in at 0.2%, above expectations (-0.9%) in February

USD/JPY holds onto recovery gains while taking rounds to 108.05, intraday high of 108.21, amid the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair recently took cl

USD/JPY extends the previous day’s recovery moves.Upbeat comments from the US diplomats seem to fuel the risk-tone.Japan’s February month data-dump also performs its role.Virus headlines will be the key to fresh impulse.USD/JPY holds onto recovery gains while taking rounds to 108.05, intraday high of 108.21, amid the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair recently took clues from the US policymakers’ statements while paying a little heed to Japan’s data-dump. Japan’s February month data dump, including Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Unemployment Rate, overall flashed upbeat signals. While the Retail Sales (YoY) surprised markets by crossing -1.2% forecast to 1.7%, the preliminary reading of Industrial Production (MoM) also rose above 0.1% expected to 0.4%. Further, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 2.4% with Job/Applicants Ratio slipping back below 1.47 forecast to 1.45. US President Donald Trump, during his Task Force Briefings, said that he is prepared if the virus strikes again in the fall season while defying expectations of the nationwide stay-at-home order. Following that, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, also commented on the speed of releasing the aid benefits and favored the risk-on further. While portraying the trade sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yields gain five basis points (bps) to 0.72% while stock futures are also flashing mild gains by the press time. Given the release of Japan’s February month data dump, investors are now likely to continue observing coronavirus headlines for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Buyers will look for sustained trading beyond 109.80 to target the monthly top surrounding 111.75. On the contrary, pair’s declines below 107.00 could recall 106.30 and 106.00 numbers to the south on the charts.  

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -4.7%, above forecasts (-5.5%) in February

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (-0.9%) in February

Japan Large Retailers' Sales came in at 0.2%, above forecasts (-2.8%) in February

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) above expectations (-0.9%) in February: Actual (0.2%)

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) came in at 1.7%, above expectations (-1.2%) in February

NZD/USD declines to the intraday low of 0.5998 amid the early Tuesday’s Asian session. While the US dollar pullback portrayed the pair’s U-turn from t

NZD/USD extends the previous day’s losses.The US dollar remains on the recovery mode, risk-tone seesaws amid mixed messages.China’s PMI can offer immediate direction, virus news stays as the main catalyst.NZD/USD declines to the intraday low of 0.5998 amid the early Tuesday’s Asian session. While the US dollar pullback portrayed the pair’s U-turn from the two-week high the previous day, recently dollar positive updates, coupled with downbeat signals from New Zealand, seems to exert additional burden on the pair. Not only US President Donald Trump’s statement that turns down the call for nationwide stay-at-home orders but Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s indication on economic impact payment also firmed up the greenback off-late. On the other hand, New Zealand’s Health Minister David Clark signaled that some restrictions levied due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will remain in place for a longer time. It should also be noted that the record low prints of the weekly consumer confidence from Australia, the largest customer, to 65.3 from 72.2, added weakness to the pair. Even so, the market's risk-tone keeps the mild optimism, portrayed the previous day, as the US stock futures take clues from Monday's positive close of Wall Street. Looking forward, China’s March month official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs will offer the immediate directions to the pair traders while news/updates concerning the pandemic can keep the driver’s seat. About the China data, forecasts favor a bit of recovery from the previously disappointing numbers. However, below 50.00 levels are likely to remain in place for both activities, suggestion contraction, which in turn could join hands with the virus pessimism to keep the bears’ hopeful. Technical analysis Not only a 21-day SMA level of near 0.6040 but the recent high near 0.6040 but Friday’s high surrounding 0.6070 will also stop buyers in a case of the pair’s rise. Alternatively, sellers will wait for a clear break below 0.5915.  

Japan Unemployment Rate in line with expectations (2.4%) in February

Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio registered at 1.45, below expectations (1.47) in February

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says Americans will begin receiving economic impact payments in the next 3 weeks. Key notes Most people will receive the

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says Americans will begin receiving economic impact payments in the next 3 weeks. Key notes Most people will receive these payments automatically. More to come...

AUD/JPY remains mildly positive around 66.55 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the pair continues to take clues from a three-day

AUD/JPY remains on the front-foot, follows the short-term rising trend line.61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a 13-day-old horizontal resistance hold the key to 200-bar SMA.A lack of momentum signals the continuation of mild run-up.AUD/JPY remains mildly positive around 66.55 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the pair continues to take clues from a three-day long rising trend line while heading towards 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its early-month declines. In addition to 67.10 immediate resistance, a horizontal trend line since March 12, 2020, around 67.70/75, also restrict buyers from challenging the 200-bar SMA level of 69.10. If at all the bullish momentum gain strength past-69.10, 70.00 round-figure will be back on the charts. Meanwhile, the pair’s break below the immediate support line near 66.00 can push it to 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 65.70 while the previous week’s low near 62.90 could gain the bears’ attention afterward. AUD/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -9, above expectations (-15) in March

South Korea Industrial Output Growth below forecasts (-1.8%) in February: Actual (-3.8%)

South Korea Service Sector Output below forecasts (-0.2%) in February: Actual (-3.5%)

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) above expectations (2.3%) in February: Actual (11.4%)

Speaking in a parliamentary committee hearing, New Zealand’s (NZ) Health Minister David Clark cited the government restrictions to remain in place for

Speaking in a parliamentary committee hearing, New Zealand’s (NZ) Health Minister David Clark cited the government restrictions to remain in place for a long time. Key quotes Some restrictions are going to be in place for a long time. Tight border controls may persist. FX implications Considering the latest risk-reset, mainly due to the expectations of receding pandemic strength in Italy and Spain, as well as US President Donald Trump’s turning down the nation-wide stay-at-home order, markets paid a little heed to the news. As a result, NZD/USD remains mildly positive near 0.6020 by the press time of the early Asian session on Tuesday.

China Federation of Logistic and Purchasing will release March month’s official PMI numbers around 01:00 GMT on Tuesday. Aussie traders will be partic

China Federation of Logistic and Purchasing will release March month’s official PMI  numbers around 01:00 GMT on Tuesday. Aussie traders will be particularly interested in watching how the key activity numbers respond to the latest change in coronavirus shockwave from Australia’s largest customer. Market consensus signals the headline NBS Manufacturing PMI to pull back to 45.00 from 35.7 while the Non-Manufacturing PMI could also recover from the previous 29.6 to 37.8. Ahead of the data, TD Securities said: Following the dramatic decline in China's manufacturing PMI in Feb, some recovery is likely; we expect a bounce, albeit still in contraction, from 35.7 to 42.0 in March. Our rationale is based on an improvement in high frequency indicators and the opening up of a large proportion of Chinese industry. However, a 'V' shape recovery is far from likely as growth in the US and Europe tanks, resulting in at least at 20-30% decline in China's external trade. On the other hand, analysts at Westpac mentioned: In China, the market will closely watch the March official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs (12pm Syd/9am local). Both are expected to rebound substantially as conditions gradually revert to their normal trend: consensus is 44.8 on manufacturing (vs 35.7 in Feb) and 42 on non-manufacturing (vs just 29.6 in Feb). How could they affect AUD/USD? Not only the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) but the Australian diplomats have also shown readiness to take further steps, in addition to the previously announced stimulus and rate cuts, if the situations worsen due to the pandemic. As a result, any more disappointments from the key customer could weigh on the latest recovery while opening the door for further actions from the policymakers. Technically, 21-day SMA near 0.6200 holds the key to the pair’s run-up towards 0.6330, comprising early-month low. Alternatively, 10-day SMA near 0.5960 could entertain sellers during the pullback. Key Notes AUD/USD remains below 0.6200, China Purchasing Managers Index eyed AUD/USD Forecast: Holding on higher ground, needs to take 0.6200About the China NBS Manufacturing PMIThe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) studies business conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market.About the China Non-Manufacturing PMIThe official non-manufacturing PMI, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies covering 27 industries including construction, transport and telecommunications. It's the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry and if it's above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction.

USD/JPY portrays a lack of momentum, despite following Monday’s recovery gains, while taking rounds to 107.85 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday.

USD/JPY remains inside a short-term symmetrical triangle after Monday’s positive close.Market’s risk-tone seems to have recovered off-late amid comments from the US, receding cases of Italy/Spain.Japan’s February month data dump, COVID-19 headlines will offer trade direction.USD/JPY portrays a lack of momentum, despite following Monday’s recovery gains, while taking rounds to 107.85 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday.  While a bit of positive news from Italy and Spain triggered risk reset earlier, comments from the US policymakers seem to have recently favored the risks. After multiple fatalities and many days of pessimism, the latest numbers from Italy and Spain showed signs of fading the earlier rise. As per Monday’s figures, Italy registered the lowest coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, 4,050, since March 17 whereas Spain also marked a reduction in the death toll to 812 from 838. However, fears are still looming over the US as cases surged to 140,904 from 122,653 during the same period. In addition to data from the global COVID-19 hot-spots, expectations that the lockdowns in many economies are paying also contributed to the risk reset. Also pleasing the risk-tone could be the latest comments from US President Donald Trump from the Task Force Briefings that turn down nationwide stay-at-home orders. It should also be noted that the pullback in the US dollar also favored the yen pair to stop the previous declines and portray a Doji formation on the daily chart. While Wall Street aptly portrayed the risk reset, the US 10-year treasury yields remain on the back foot near 0.72% by the end of their trading session on Monday. Japan’s February month Unemployment Rate, Retail Sales and Industrial Production could offer immediate direction while virus new will keep the driver’s seat. Forecasts suggest trade negative prints for Japanese yen, which in turn strengthens the call for BOJ’s additional stimulus. However, the risk-tone is vulnerable due to the disease and that might help the safe-haven currency. Technical analysis Monday’s Doji signals the reversal of the previous u-turn from the monthly high surrounding 111.75. However, a sustained run-up beyond 109.80 becomes necessary for the pair to ignore calls of visiting 107.00 levels.  

During his coronavirus (COVID-19) Task Force Briefings, US President Donald Trump showed readiness to avail more ambulances and respirators at home wh

During his coronavirus (COVID-19) Task Force Briefings, US President Donald Trump showed readiness to avail more ambulances and respirators at home while also said to have talked to Italian PM Conte. Key quotes We will allocate more ambulances to different states. We will continue to provide the states with thousands of respirators. Spoke with the Italian Prime Minister and told him US will be sending about $100 million of protective equipments to Italy. Nationwide stay-at-home is pretty unlikely. Prepared if the virus strikes again in the fall season. FX implications Considering the absence of any major signal, markets paid a little heed to the statements from US President Trump. Also contributing to the lack of momentum could be no major data/events amid the early hours of Asian morning on Tuesday.

Adding to his previous comments to the G20 trade ministers, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin emphasized the need for the US to become self-dependan

Adding to his previous comments to the G20 trade ministers, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin emphasized the need for the US to become self-dependant as far as medical supplies are concerned. Key quotes Overdependence on other countries for cheap medical supplies has created strategic vulnerability to US economy. Encouraging diversification of supply chains, seeking to promote more domestic manufacturing. G20 should stay focused on the response to the pandemic, not try to use it to push other agendas in trade or elsewhere. FX implications The news helped to offer a bit of risk-on by the end of Monday’s trading, as could be witnessed from Wall Street close.

New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MoM) came in at 4.7%, above forecasts (1%) in February

AUD/USD seesaws around the higher limit of Monday’s trading range, between 0.6110 and 0.6185, while taking rounds to 0.6170 at the start of Tuesday’s

AUD/USD nears the upper-end of Monday’s trading range under 0.6200.The US dollar tried to recover some of the latest losses, President Donald Trump turned down hopes of economic restoration before Easter.Australian authorities signaled huge stimulus, around Australian dollar 80 billion, is on the way.Aussie Private Sector Credit, New Home Sales can offer intermediate clues ahead of China’s official PMIs.AUD/USD seesaws around the higher limit of Monday’s trading range, between 0.6110 and 0.6185, while taking rounds to 0.6170 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. A glimmer of hope from receding cases in Italy and Spain, coupled with Aussie policymakers’ signals of further stimulus and disappointment from US President Donald Trump, helped the quote to remain on the front foot, with mild gains, during the previous day. On Monday, Italy registered the lowest coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, 4,050, since March 17 whereas Spain also marked a reduction in the death toll to 812 from 838. On the other hand, the US continues to become the concern for the markets with cases rising to 140,904 from 122,653 while the death toll in the country stepping up to 2,405. The Aussie PM Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg showed readiness to announce big stimulus to regain the economic traction. Further, US President Donald Trump stepped back from earlier hints to reopen the economy by Easter. Additionally, comments from the recently convened G20 suggest that the World Bank pushed for slightly easy trading terms for pandemic goods and food. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin also said that the US overdependence on other countries for cheap medical supplies has created a strategic vulnerability. Market’s risk-tone remains mostly lacking direction as the US 10-year treasury yields remained under pressure around 0.70% while Wall Street closed in the green for the first day of the week. While second-tier Aussie data could offer intermediate moves to the pair, traders will keep eyes on China’s official PMI numbers for March. The headline Manufacturing PMI is expected to recover from 35.7 to 45 with Non-Manufacturing PMI likely inching up to 37.8 from 29.6 previous read-outs. Even if the data is expected to portray contraction in the activities, by remaining below 50.00, any recovery in the pace would be welcomed for further upside towards 0.6200. Technical analysis 21-day SMA offers the immediate upside barrier around 0.6200 ahead of March 09 low near 0.6310. Alternatively, 0.6080, 0.6000 and 10-day SMA near 0.5960 could entertain sellers during the pullback.  

US benchmarks were booking solid gains on Monday and paring back Friday's losses to ending in positive territory as health care companies Johnson & Jo

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 690.7 points, or 3.2%, to end at 22,327.48.S&P 500 put up 85.18 points, or 3.4%, to 2,626.65. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 271.77 points, or 3.6%, to 7,774.15.US benchmarks were booking solid gains on Monday and paring back Friday's losses to ending in positive territory as health care companies Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth pull in the bid, leading companies in the war against the 'invisible enemy', COVID-19/  The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 690.7 points, or 3.2%, to end at 22,327.48 while the S&P 500 put up 85.18 points, or 3.4%, to 2,626.65. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 271.77 points, or 3.6%, to 7,774.15. The end of month flows added to last week's 12.8% advance for the Dow, the best since 1938. Rhe S&P 500 climbed 10.3% for its biggest leap since 2008 while the Nasdaq Composite made a 9.1% weekly rise which was the best since March 2009. An encouraging drop in COVID-19 new confirmed cases spurred on the markets Markets were enthused by an encouraging drop in COVID-19 new confirmed cases in some European countries raised hopes that lockdowns may be working. However, the US is seen to be heading towards a peak over the next two weeks and markets were encouraged by the US’s decision to extend lockdowns until 30 April. Stimulus remains a key factor for stock markets, cheering an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary support from the US Treasury and Fed.  "New COVID-19 cases rose 4,050 in Italy, down from 5,217 on Sunday and a high of 6,153 last Thursday. Spain reported 812 deaths, down slightly from 838 Sunday," analysts at ANZ bank explained. "Whilst the data provide hope that lockdowns are working, experts warn that it will be another two to three weeks before they can tell whether the measures have been successful." DJIA levels  

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI below expectations (72) in April: Actual (52)

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