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جمعه، 4 دسمبر، 2020

Early Friday morning in Asia, CNN quotes US President Donald Trump’s most senior intelligence official John Ratcliffe while stating that China is prep

Early Friday morning in Asia, CNN quotes US President Donald Trump’s most senior intelligence official John Ratcliffe while stating  that China is preparing for "an open-ended period of confrontation with the US," urging bipartisan action to address "the greatest threat to America today" and to "democracy around the world since World War II." The report also quotes anonymous sources while saying, US President-elect Joe Biden is well aware of the challenge Beijing presents, but believes Trump's approach -- particularly taking action without consulting allies -- has undermined the ultimate goal of competing with China. Before a few hours, news rolled out that the Trump administration confirmed the blacklisting of four Chinese firms, namely the chipmaker SMIC, oil form CNOOC, China Construction Technology and China International Engineering Consulting Corporation by identifying the linkages with the Chinese military. On the positive side, the Wall Street Journal reports that the US Justice Department is in talks with Huawei's Meng Wanzhou to allow her to return to China if she agrees to some wrongdoing. A deal could pave the way for the release of two detained Canadians.  FX implications While the negatives concerning China are mostly known, news for the Huawei Finance Chief offers positive support to the market sentiment. As a result, S&P 500 Futures prints 0.10% intraday gains by press time.

In its preview for November’s US employment report, up for publishing at 13:30 GMT on Friday, Goldman Sachs anticipates +450K for the headline Nonfarm

In its preview for November’s US employment report, up for publishing at 13:30 GMT on Friday, Goldman Sachs anticipates +450K for the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). The US bank also expects a 0.10% reduction in the Unemployment Rate from 6.9% to 6.8%. While citing the reasons, their analysts mention that the breadth and severity of the virus resurgence suggests a larger labor market impact. Additional details from the report cited factors behind the easing Unemployment rate as reflecting an increase in household employment and a pause in the labor force participation rebound. It should be noted that the US dollar index (DXY) is near the lowest since early 2018 and any more disappointment from the scheduled jobs report will exert additional downside pressure on the greenback. Read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Another dollar’s disappointment underway

NZD/USD wavers inside the nearly 15-pip trading range, currently around 0.7075, during the early Asian trading on Friday. Even so, the kiwi pair stays

NZD/USD trades in a choppy range between 0.7071 and 0.7083 following its pullback from April 2018 top.New Zealand Q3 Construction Work Done grew 34.6% QoQ.Pfizer hit supply-chain obstacle, Moderna is optimistic over the output range.US confirm blacklisting four Chinese companies, Canberra-Beijing tussle intensify.NZD/USD wavers inside the nearly 15-pip trading range, currently around 0.7075, during the early Asian trading on Friday. Even so, the kiwi pair stays near the highest levels since late-April 2018. Although mixed signals concerning the US stimulus and the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine have troubled the quote’s upside momentum off-late, the overall weakness of the US dollar joins upbeat data at home to favor the bulls. New Zealand’s third quarter (Q3) Construction Work Done marked a huge bounce off -22.4% in Q2 to +34.6% QoQ. Details suggest the Residential Construction grew 35.9% QoQ while the Non-Residential ones rose +32.6% during the stated period. Risks dwindle as Moderna’s optimism concerning inventories and stocks counter the Pfizer-BioNTech fear of less supply due to the raw material glitch. It should also be noted that the US President-elect Joe Biden’s comments like, “I will get the covid-19 vaccine when Dr. Fauci says it is safe and will take it publicly,” also dims the vaccine hopes. On the other hand, the House Republican majority leader Mitch McConnell said to have a good conversation with Speaker Nancy Pelosi on stimulus. Mr. McConnell recently turned down the bipartisan proposal of $908 billion as the COVID-19 stimulus even as US President Donald Trump showed readiness to sign the bills if the Senate approves. Also on the negative side could be the US-China tension and Beijing’s hint of further trade-negative measures for New Zealand’s largest trading partner Australia. It should be noted that the market’s optimism towards the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains intact amid the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s comparatively more bullion outlook as well as Jacinda Ardern-led government’s ability to tame the pandemic at home. While identifying the aforementioned catalysts, analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “Call it December seasonality come early, call it what you will, but the market’s appetite for the NZD is insatiable at the moment, and while the rubber bands of momentum and valuation are starting to get stretched, technically it looks very solid; commodity prices are rising; and nobody wants to own the USD. And in a world of abundant liquidity, markets have tended to ignore valuations, risking further upside. A break of 0.7160 would be extremely bullish.” Looking forward, the US employment report for November will be the key data to watch while risk catalysts are likely to keep the driver’s seat. Read: Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Another dollar’s disappointment underway Technical analysis Unless breaking below 0.7025 immediate support confluence, comprising 10-day SMA and an ascending trend line from November 13, NZD/USD buyers are well-supported to attack the March 2018 low surrounding 0.7150.  

South Korea Current Account Balance came in at 11.66B, above expectations (8.49B) in October

GBP/USD has fallen back to around 1.3450 from yearly highs at 1.3500 reached earlier on during Thursday’s US session. The pair still closed Thursday F

Brexit nerves have triggered a drop from year-to-date highs reached on Thursday of 1.3500.Talks apparently went badly on Thursday, with level playing field issues reportedly causing problems.GBP/USD has fallen back to around 1.3450 from yearly highs at 1.3500 reached earlier on during Thursday’s US session. The pair still closed Thursday FX trade with gains of over 80 pips or 0.6%. Brexit talks hit hiccup but continue UK sources today noted that talks did not go well today, with one senior government source saying that “at the eleventh hour, the EU is bringing new elements into the negotiation. A breakthrough is still possible in the next few days but that prospect is receding.” EU sources swiftly confirmed that talks had not gone well, although played down the claim that they were bringing new elements into discussions. Issues reportedly arose regarding the topic of level playing field, an area which reports earlier in the day had suggested solid progress had been made on. Thursday’s bombardment of mixed news flow regarding the state of talks is likely a model of how things will go on Friday, so expect the GBP rollercoaster to continue. But talks are clearly coming to a head, and any communications over the weekend between UK PM Johnson and EU Commission President von der Leyen might again be seen as critical. GBP/USD upside might well continue even in absence of positive Brexit developments, note many analysts, given that much of the recent upside in the pair can be attributed to USD weakness. A better pair to watch to gauge Brexit sentiment is likely EUR/GBP.    

Spot silver prices have been indecisive on Thursday, trading either side of the $24.00 level and within recent ranges. At present, XAG/USD trades with

Spot silver has recovered from earlier sub-$23.80 lows and regain a $24 status.The precious metal continues to look rangebound and trades close to its 21 and 50DMAs.Spot silver prices have been indecisive on Thursday, trading either side of the $24.00 level and within recent ranges. At present, XAG/USD trades with very minor losses of around 3 cents, or slightly more than 0.1%. What next after the dip was bought? Traders aggressively bought the late-November dip in Silver prices, sending XAG/USD from lows on 30 November beneath $22.00 to back above $24.00 in less than two days, around which spot prices continue to range. Markets are clearly weighing up what is next for the precious metal. Analysts are weighing up the prospects for the return of inflation in 2021 and what this would mean for real interest rates and global central bank policy. A faster than expected return of inflation that doesn’t trigger concern at central banks eager to make up for years of missing their inflation targets is likely to be a positive for precious metals, given that it would likely keep a real-yields low (given that central bank would be leaving interest rates at zero and so the gap between interest rates and inflation would widen). This makes precious metals a more attractive place to invest money. Conversely, if inflation stays sluggish, continued stimulus and money supply expansion from major global central banks is also likely to benefit precious metals, which benefit as a hedge against inflation. Perhaps the major threat to precious metals would come from earlier than anticipated monetary tightening from global central banks. If global central banks were to reduce the sizes of their balance sheets and raise interest rates earlier than expected, this would dampen inflation expectations and thus hurt the attractiveness of precious metals. The likes of gold and silver are likely to be sensitive to this story as the economic story plays out over the coming months.  

USD/CAD drops to 1.2860 during the early Friday morning in Asia. In doing so, the quote trades near the lowest since October 3, 2018, flashed on Thurs

USD/CAD renews downside momentum after reversing from 12-day-old resistance line, previous support.Bearish MACD directs sellers towards 1.5-month-long support line with October 2018 bottom acting as immediate rest-point.Nine-day-old falling trend line adds to the immediate upside barrier.USD/CAD drops to 1.2860 during the early Friday morning in Asia. In doing so, the quote trades near the lowest since October 3, 2018, flashed on Thursday. The pair recently bounced off the multi-day low of 1.2852 before stepping back from the previous support line stretched since November 18, near 1.2880 now. Failures to cross the immediate resistance line join bearish MACD to direct USD/CAD sellers towards the October 2018 low near 1.2780 while the 1.2800 round-figure can offer an intermediate halt during the south-run. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s inability to bounce off 1.2780 will make it vulnerable to drop towards a falling trend line from October 21, currently around 1.2720. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the aforementioned immediate resistance line, at 1.2880 now, will trigger a fresh recovery wave targeting another short-term trend line resistance, presently near 1.2950. USD/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Moderna says that phase 1 covid-19 vaccine participants retained high levels of antibodies after 119 days. The company sees 100m-125m doses available


Moderna says that phase 1 covid-19 vaccine participants retained high levels of antibodies after 119 days. The company sees 100m-125m doses available globally in Q1 of 2021 and  stated that the vaccine trial results consistent across all age groups.

Markets were buoyed by rising hopes of a US stimulus bill but were soured into the close as reports came in late in the day that Pfizer (PFE) is slash

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% and the S&P 500 was near flat.The Nasdaq Composite was up by 0.2%.Markets were buoyed by rising hopes of a US stimulus bill but were soured into the close as reports came in late in the day that Pfizer (PFE) is slashing half the COVID-19 vaccines it was targeting to ship this year. "Scaling up the raw material supply chain took longer than expected," a company spokeswoman said. "And it's important to highlight that the outcome of the clinical trial was somewhat later than the initial projection."Pfizer cut covid vaccine rollout target on supply-chain obstacles, risk-offMeanwhile, the Senate Leader Mitch McConnell said he thinks a deal is in sight for a new round of fiscal stimulus to address the pandemic. "Compromise is within reach. We know where we agree. We can do this," he said, according to a CNBC report. Subsequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.3% to 29,969.52. The S&P 500 was near flat at 3,666.72 and the Nasdaq Composite put on 0.2% to 12,377.18. Energy and real estate were among the best performing sectors while utilities and materials led the decliners. US data The US November ISM report showed renewed pressure on services firms as rising COVID-19 case numbers alter behaviour, analysts at ANZ Bank explained. ''Supply chains are also under pressure (like everywhere). Hiring picked up, though there are question marks about how well that will hold up over the coming few months as COVID-19 takes its toll. Weekly jobless claims fell by 75k, changing direction after two weeks of increases, but Thanksgiving seasonality is likely at play, so one shouldn’t necessarily take a signal of strength from it.'' S&P 500 Index 15-min chart

WTI eases to $45.73 during the final trades of Thursday’s settlement, early-Friday for Asia. In doing so, the black gold remains positive on a daily b

WTI wavers near the upper end of one-week-old bullish flag.Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak hopes total oil output increase by OPEC+ will reach 2 million bpd by April.OPEC+ agreed to for 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) output increase to 7.2 million bpd from January 2021.Risk-on mood, US dollar weakness favor the commodities, US employment data awaited.WTI eases to $45.73 during the final trades of Thursday’s settlement, early-Friday for Asia. In doing so, the black gold remains positive on a daily basis while taking rounds to the November month’s high, also the highest since March. The hopes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine will be rolled out soon, coupled with the expectations of US covid stimulus, weigh on the US dollar index (DXY) towards revisiting the April 2018 lows. The greenback weakness helps commodities and oil is no exception as increased market optimism also favors higher demand in near future. While cheering the risk-on mood, the energy traders seem to pay a little heed to the OPEC+ decision of scaling back the previous production cut rules. Additionally, recently downbeat comments from the Russian Energy Minister Novak, suggesting a heavy increase in the output also got a little fanfare. Wall Street benchmark refreshed record high, before closing Thursday’s trading with mixed gains, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields ease amid fears of a further delay in the US stimulus as Republican leader Mitch McConnell recently turned down the bipartisan proposal of $908 billion stimulus. Moving on, the US employment data for November will be the key, especially for the US dollar. Though, qualitative catalysts are in a much stronger shape to affect the market moves and hence should be watched carefully. Technical analysis August month’s high near $43.85 offers immediate support with a sustained break above $45.50 likely confirming the bullish flag on the four-hour chart.  
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