Forex News Timeline

Friday, March 29, 2024

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.3%)

France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (0%)

France Producer Prices (MoM) down to -1.7% in February from previous -1.3%

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.8%) in March

USD/JPY remains calm and hovers around 151.40 during the early European hours on Friday.

USD/JPY struggles as BoJ’s cautious approach to keep monetary conditions accommodative.Japanese CPI (YoY) rose 2.6% in March, from the previous reading of a 2.5% rise.The strength of the US Dollar is bolstered by hawkish statements from Fed officials.USD/JPY remains calm and hovers around 151.40 during the early European hours on Friday. Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) for March climbed 2.6% following a 2.5% rise in February. Meanwhile, the Core Tokyo CPI climbed 2.9% year-over-year, down from a 3.1% rise in February. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made remarks on Friday emphasizing the importance of stable currency movements aligned with economic fundamentals. He expressed concern about rapid fluctuations in foreign exchange (FX) markets, attributing speculative activity to these movements. Suzuki stated that authorities are closely monitoring FX developments with a strong sense of urgency and are prepared to take necessary measures to address disorderly FX movements. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida remarked on Thursday that it was fitting for the central bank to "maintain accommodative monetary conditions." Kishida also emphasized that the government would persist in collaborating with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to facilitate wage increases and steer the economy away from deflation. The Japanese Yen (JPY) likely faced challenges due to the Bank of Japan's cautious approach to maintaining accommodative monetary conditions, thereby supporting the USD/JPY pair. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens, nearing 104.60, as recent data indicates annualized economic expansion in the United States (US), driven by consumer spending. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 3.4%, surpassing market expectations of remaining unchanged at a 3.2% increase. The US Gross Domestic Product Price Index remained steady with a 1.7% increase, in line with expectations for Q4. The hawkish statements from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official, reinforced the Greenback. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments on Wednesday hinted at a potential delay in interest rate cuts, given the strong inflation figures. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 151.38 Today Daily Change 0.00 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 151.38   Trends Daily SMA20 149.74 Daily SMA50 149.34 Daily SMA100 147.6 Daily SMA200 146.84   Levels Previous Daily High 151.54 Previous Daily Low 151.15 Previous Weekly High 151.86 Previous Weekly Low 148.91 Previous Monthly High 150.89 Previous Monthly Low 145.9 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 151.39 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 151.3 Daily Pivot Point S1 151.17 Daily Pivot Point S2 150.96 Daily Pivot Point S3 150.78 Daily Pivot Point R1 151.57 Daily Pivot Point R2 151.75 Daily Pivot Point R3 151.96    

Turkey Trade Balance declined to -6.77B in February from previous -6.23B

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published on Friday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at 12:30 GMT.

.fxs-content-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-content-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-content-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-content-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-content-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-content-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-content-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-content-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-content-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-content-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is set to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY in February.Markets see a strong chance of the Federal Reserve lowering the policy rate by 25 basis points in June.The revised Summary of Projections showed that policymakers upwardly revised end-2024 core PCE forecast to 2.6% from 2.4%.The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published on Friday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at 12:30 GMT. What to expect in the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation report? The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, at a slightly softer pace than the 0.4% increase recorded in January. February core PCE is also projected to grow at an annual pace of 2.8%, matching the previous reading. The headline PCE inflation is forecast to tick up to 2.5% (YoY). The Federal Reserve’s revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the dot plot– published alongside the policy statement after the March meeting – showed that policymakers expect the annual core PCE inflation to be at 2.6% at the end of 2024, up from the 2.4% forecast seen in the December SEP.  When commenting on the policy outlook in the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that they need greater confidence of inflation moving sustainably down toward the 2% target before they start lowering the policy rate. Powell, however, argued that strong inflation numbers in January were impacted by seasonal effects.  Previewing the PCE inflation report, “Given still robust increases in the Feb CPI/PPI data, we look for another firm gain for the core PCE — though notably down from January's 0.42% increase and from the core CPI's 0.36% m/m February gain,” said Oscar Munoz, Chief US Macro Strategist at TD Securities, in a weekly report. When will the PCE inflation report be released, and how could it affect EUR/USD? The PCE inflation data is slated for release at 12:30 GMT. The monthly core PCE Price Index gauge is the most-preferred inflation reading by the Fed, as it’s not distorted by base effects and provides a clear view of underlying inflation by excluding volatile items. Investors, therefore, pay close attention to the monthly core PCE figure. Stronger-than-forecast Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings in January and February, combined with data that pointed to tight labor market conditions, caused markets to lean toward a delay in the Fed policy pivot from May to June. Nevertheless, the dot plot showed that policymakers still project the US central bank to cut the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points (bps) in 2024. Hence, markets are pricing in a more than 60% chance that the Fed will lower the policy rate by 25 bps to 5%-5.25% in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. It will be tricky to assess the immediate impact of the PCE data on the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation because trading conditions will be thin on Easter Friday. Even if the monthly core PCE Price Index rises at a stronger pace than expected, it might not be enough to cause investors to reassess the possibility of another policy hold in June. Nevertheless, it could still provide a boost to the USD, with markets doubting the size of the total reduction in the policy rate.  On the other hand, an increase of 0.2% or less in the monthly Core PCE Price Index could weigh on the USD. In this scenario, a bearish opening in the 10-year US yield could be seen when the bond market returns to action at the weekly opening next Monday.FXStreet Analyst Eren Sengezer offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains: “The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA form a strong resistance for EUR/USD at 1.0830. As long as this level stays intact as resistance, technical sellers could look to retain control. On the downside, 1.0760 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the October-December uptrend) aligns as next support before 1.0700 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement). In case EUR/USD manages to reclaim 1.0830, buyers could take action and open the door for an extended rebound toward 1.0900 (psychological level, static level) and 1.0950 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement). Related newsWaller pushes on open door: Push for patience lifts the Dollar, complicating Japanese efforts Federal Reserve’s ‘Doomsday book’ reveals vast power claimed by central bank EUR/USD Forecast: Firmer US Dollar suggests lower lows ahead   Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.  

The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.2620 during the early European session on Friday.

GBP/USD drifts lower to 1.2620 in Friday’s early European trading hours. The bearish outlook of the pair remains intact above the key EMA; RSI indicator supports the downward momentum. The first upside barrier is seen in the 1.2645–1.2650 region; the 1.2600–1.2605 zone acts as an initial support level. The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.2620 during the early European session on Friday. The decline of Pound Sterling (GBP) is backed by the growing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin the rate-cut cycle this year. Markets are fully pricing in the first rate cut in August, with a total of nearly three quarter-point interest rate cuts this year.

Technically, GBP/USD keeps the bearish vibe unchanged as the major pair is below the key 50- and 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the four-hour chart. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies below the 50 midlines, suggesting the downward momentum of the pair and the further decline look favorable. 

The immediate resistance level for GBP/USD is seen in the 1.2645–1.2650 region, representing the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the 50-period EMA. Any follow-through buying above the latter will expose the 100-period EMA at 1.2677. The additional upside filter to watch is a high of March 18 at 1.2746, en route to the 1.2800 psychological round mark.

On the downside, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at the 1.2600–1.2605 zone acts as an initial support level for the major pair. A decisive break below this level will pave the way to a low of March 22 at 1.2575. The next downside target is located at a low of February 14 at 1.2535, and finally at the 1.2500 round figure. GBP/USD four-hour chartGBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.262 Today Daily Change -0.0004 Today Daily Change % -0.03 Today daily open 1.2624   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2719 Daily SMA50 1.2678 Daily SMA100 1.2653 Daily SMA200 1.259   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2655 Previous Daily Low 1.2586 Previous Weekly High 1.2804 Previous Weekly Low 1.2575 Previous Monthly High 1.2773 Previous Monthly Low 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2612 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2629 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2588 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2553 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.252 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2657 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.269 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2726    

Japan Annualized Housing Starts: 0.795M (February) vs previous 0.802M

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) below forecasts (-5.5%) in February: Actual (-8.2%)

The USD/CHF pair snaps the two-day losing streak near 0.9025 on Friday during the Asian session.

USD/CHF holds the positive ground around 0.9025 on the firmer US Dollar. The high-for-longer US rate narrative might boost the Greenback against the CHF. SNB’s Schlegel said the SNB will monitor the FX rate closely and intervene if necessary. The USD/CHF pair snaps the two-day losing streak near 0.9025 on Friday during the Asian session. The hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and strong US economic data boost the US Dollar (USD) and support USD/CHF. However, the upside of the pair might be limited amid the possibility that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could intervene in the foreign exchange market. 

The Fed governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that the US central bank was in no rush to cut interest rates as elevated inflation indicated that the current rates needed more time to work. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Monday that the path of disinflation has been bumpy, but a cautious approach to further policy shifts can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. The high-for-longer US rate narrative might lift the Greenback and create a tailwind for the pair in the near term. 

On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice President Martin Schlegel said on Wednesday that the Swiss central bank will monitor the exchange rate closely and intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary, even though it has no target for the Swiss Franc (CHF) exchange rate. Last week, the SNB surprised the market by cutting its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nine years, which triggered the sell-off in the CHF in previous sessions. The speculation of SNB’s intervention might cap the downside of the CHF against the USD.  

Additionally, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might benefit safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that Israeli forces besieged two more Gaza hospitals on Sunday, pinning down medical teams under heavy gunfire.

Later on Friday, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be due. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is estimated to remain stable at 2.8% YoY. The market is likely to be mute in light trading on Good Friday. USD/CHF Overview Today last price 0.9021 Today Daily Change 0.0005 Today Daily Change % 0.06 Today daily open 0.9016   Trends Daily SMA20 0.8878 Daily SMA50 0.8794 Daily SMA100 0.8735 Daily SMA200 0.8818   Levels Previous Daily High 0.9065 Previous Daily Low 0.9 Previous Weekly High 0.902 Previous Weekly Low 0.8822 Previous Monthly High 0.8886 Previous Monthly Low 0.8553 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.9025 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.904 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8989 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8962 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8924 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9054 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.9092 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.912  
 

Japan Construction Orders (YoY) down to -11% in February from previous 9.1%

EUR/GBP continues its downward movement, influenced by challenges facing the Euro following dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy.

EUR/GBP edges lower on dovish remarks from ECB policymakers.ECB’s Villeroy has expressed confidence in the ECB's inflation target of 2%, but he has also cautioned about the increasing downside risks.BoE official Jonathan Haskel said that rate cuts should be "a long way off”.EUR/GBP continues its downward movement, influenced by challenges facing the Euro following dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy. During the Asian session on Friday, the EUR/GBP cross depreciates to near 0.8540. Villeroy highlighted a notable decline in core inflation. He expressed confidence in the ECB to achieve an inflation target of 2% but cautioned about escalating downside risks if the ECB hesitates to implement rate cuts. Moreover, ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta emphasized on Thursday that the conditions for implementing monetary policy easing are emerging. He pointed out that restrictive policies are dampening demand, resulting in a rapid decrease in inflation. Panetta also indicated a reduction in risks to price stability. The Pound Sterling (GBP) maintains its position, possibly due to the hawkish comments from the Bank of England official Jonathan Haskel. He said that rate cuts should be "a long way off," while his colleague Catherine Mann warned against overly high expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Despite Bank of England officials expressing reluctance towards rate cuts, the British Pound (GBP) may have faced downward pressure following economic data indicating that the United Kingdom’s (UK) economy entered a recession in the second half of 2023. The nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023, in line with preliminary estimates. Speculation persists that the Bank of England (BoE) will initiate three quarter-point reductions in rates throughout 2024. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that interest rate cuts will be under consideration at future BoE policy meetings. EUR/GBP Overview Today last price 0.8537 Today Daily Change -0.0009 Today Daily Change % -0.11 Today daily open 0.8546   Trends Daily SMA20 0.8551 Daily SMA50 0.8548 Daily SMA100 0.8595 Daily SMA200 0.8608   Levels Previous Daily High 0.8571 Previous Daily Low 0.8544 Previous Weekly High 0.8602 Previous Weekly Low 0.853 Previous Monthly High 0.8578 Previous Monthly Low 0.8498 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8554 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8561 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8537 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8527 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.851 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8564 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.858 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.859    

Fuel suppliers in Baltimore are expected to encounter delays following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

USD/CAD holds its position after recovering daily losses on Friday.US Dollar strengthens on hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed maintaining higher policy rates.Canadian Dollar received upward support from the higher WTI price.Fuel suppliers in Baltimore are expected to encounter delays following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. USD/CAD hovers around 1.3540 during the Asian hours on Friday, showing signs of potentially ending its four-day losing streak. However, trading volumes are expected to be light due to Good Friday. The US Dollar's (USD) strength may be attributed to the hawkish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve's intention to maintain higher interest rates. This shift in sentiment could be linked to recent robust economic data from the United States (US). Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's cautionary remarks, indicating no urgency to begin rate cuts, have tempered market expectations of three rate cuts in 2024. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 3.4% in Q4, surpassing market expectations of remaining unchanged at a 3.2% increase. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) for the same period came in at 2.0%, slightly below the expected and previous reading of 2.1%. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) received a boost due to increased prospects of foreign currency inflows, fueled by the uptick in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices. The rise in Crude oil prices is linked to expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will continue their production cuts. Canada's Gross Domestic Product (MoM) expanded by 0.6% in January, surpassing the projected 0.4% increase. This indicates economic resilience and suggests a strengthening economic landscape. These figures have instilled confidence in Canada's economic outlook, dampening market expectations of immediate rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC). USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.354 Today Daily Change 0.0000 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 1.354   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3536 Daily SMA50 1.3505 Daily SMA100 1.3497 Daily SMA200 1.3495   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3614 Previous Daily Low 1.3525 Previous Weekly High 1.3614 Previous Weekly Low 1.3456 Previous Monthly High 1.3606 Previous Monthly Low 1.3366 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3559 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.358 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3506 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3471 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3417 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3594 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3649 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3683    

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price settled higher at $82.82 per barrel on Thursday.

WTI price gained ground as OPEC+ is expected to maintain their production cuts.Ukrainian attacks on Russia's infrastructure are contributing to the sentiment of tightening global Crude supplies.Fuel suppliers in Baltimore are expected to encounter delays following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price settled higher at $82.82 per barrel on Thursday. Markets are closed on Good Friday. The rise in Crude oil prices is attributed to the likelihood of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) maintaining their production cuts. Investors are expected to closely monitor the Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee meeting of the OPEC next week. Despite increased geopolitical risks, which have raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, it is unlikely that OPEC+ will change their oil output policies until a full ministerial gathering scheduled for June. Furthermore, Crude oil prices are buoyed by the ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, contributing to the sentiment of tightening global Crude supplies. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated a weekly rise in US crude inventories. For the week ending on March 22, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change reported an increase of 3.165 million barrels in stock, contrary to the expected decline of 1.275 million barrels and the previous decline of 1.952 million barrels. Following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday, fuel suppliers in Baltimore are expected to encounter trucking delays and other logistical challenges. The collapse resulted in parts of the bridge falling into shipping lanes at the mouth of the Port of Baltimore, leading to the indefinite closure of the city's port. US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, exceeding market expectations which anticipated a 3.2% increase. The US Gross Domestic Product Price Index remained stable with a 1.7% increase, aligning with projections for Q4. Investors further await the latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain insights into the trajectory of interest rates. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 82.82 Today Daily Change 0.00 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 82.82   Trends Daily SMA20 80.03 Daily SMA50 77.8 Daily SMA100 75.72 Daily SMA200 78.63   Levels Previous Daily High 82.9 Previous Daily Low 81.27 Previous Weekly High 83.05 Previous Weekly Low 80.24 Previous Monthly High 79.27 Previous Monthly Low 71.46 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 82.28 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 81.89 Daily Pivot Point S1 81.76 Daily Pivot Point S2 80.7 Daily Pivot Point S3 80.13 Daily Pivot Point R1 83.39 Daily Pivot Point R2 83.96 Daily Pivot Point R3 85.02    

Gold price (XAU/USD) flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday.

Gold price hovers around $2,230, nearly record highs in Friday’s Asian session. The prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Fed and the ongoing geopolitical tensions lift the yellow metal.The hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might cap the gold’s upside. Investors will closely monitor the US February PCE data, due on Friday.  Gold price (XAU/USD) flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the easing expectations for the Fed rate cuts might lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside of USD-denominated gold. 

Gold gains momentum as investors anticipate three rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The Fed held its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for the fifth consecutive time last week. Furthermore, the central bank still expects three quarter-percentage point cuts by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in nearly 63% odds that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates generally weaken the USD, making gold cheaper to investors holding other currencies.

Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East might boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold. The Palestinian Red Crescent said that Israeli forces besieged two more Gaza hospitals on Sunday, pinning down medical teams under heavy gunfire.

On the other hand, a combination of hawkish Fed comments and robust US economy data might weigh on the gold price. Many Fed officials remain cautious about easing too soon. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that there was “no rush” to Fed bank President Raphael Bostic stated that he now sees just one quarter-point rate cut this year, down from the two cuts that he had previously estimated. 

Most markets are closed for Good Friday, but the US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data will take center stage on Friday. The Core PCE, Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is projected to show an increase of 0.3% in February. XAU/USD Overview Today last price 2234.24 Today Daily Change 0.00 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 2234.24   Trends Daily SMA20 2163.93 Daily SMA50 2080.93 Daily SMA100 2051.64 Daily SMA200 1989.35   Levels Previous Daily High 2236.27 Previous Daily Low 2187.44 Previous Weekly High 2223.22 Previous Weekly Low 2146.16 Previous Monthly High 2065.49 Previous Monthly Low 1984.26 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2217.62 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2206.09 Daily Pivot Point S1 2202.36 Daily Pivot Point S2 2170.49 Daily Pivot Point S3 2153.53 Daily Pivot Point R1 2251.19 Daily Pivot Point R2 2268.15 Daily Pivot Point R3 2300.02    

Speaking at the annual Boao Forum on Friday, Xu Zhibin, the deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said that he “will steadily promote financial market opening.” Additional comments Will improve policies to facilitate cross-border investment.

Speaking at the annual Boao Forum on Friday, Xu Zhibin, the deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said that he “will steadily promote financial market opening.” Additional comments Will improve policies to facilitate cross-border investment. Will further enhance capital account opening. Will enhance risk prevention capabilities. Market reaction Despite the encouraging comments from China’s FX regulator, AUD/USD remains uninspired near 0.6515, modestly flat on the day.

EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a stronger US Dollar (USD) influenced by the hawkish market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.

EUR/USD depreciates on hawkish sentiment surrounding the US Fed.Fed’s Waller hinted at a delay in interest rate cuts due to stronger inflation figures.ECB’s Villeroy suggested that the ECB's inflation goal of 2% is attainable.EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a stronger US Dollar (USD) influenced by the hawkish market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. This shift in sentiment is supported by recent strong economic indicators from the United States (US). The EUR/USD pair edges lower to near 1.0780 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthens, nearing 104.60, driven by hawkish statements from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official, which boosted the Greenback. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments on Wednesday hinted at a potential delay in interest rate cuts, given the strong inflation figures. Investors now await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which serves as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gain additional insight and guidance. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized expanded by 3.4%, surpassing market expectations of remaining unchanged at a 3.2% increase. The US Gross Domestic Product Price Index remained steady with a 1.7% increase, in line with expectations for Q4. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) for the same period came in at 2.0%, slightly below both the expected and previous reading of 2.1%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 210,000 in the week ending March 22, contrary to expectations for an increase to 215,000 from the previous 212,000. The Euro encounters difficulties following dovish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy. Villeroy noted a rapid decline in core inflation, albeit it remains high. He suggested that the ECB's inflation goal of 2% is attainable, but warned of increasing downside risks if the ECB refrains from cutting rates. Furthermore, ECB executive board member Fabio Panetta stated on Thursday that "the conditions to start easing monetary policy are materializing." He highlighted that restrictive policies are suppressing demand and leading to a swift drop in inflation. Panetta also indicated that risks to price stability have lessened. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0776 Today Daily Change -0.0013 Today Daily Change % -0.12 Today daily open 1.0789   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0876 Daily SMA50 1.0837 Daily SMA100 1.0875 Daily SMA200 1.0836   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0828 Previous Daily Low 1.0775 Previous Weekly High 1.0942 Previous Weekly Low 1.0802 Previous Monthly High 1.0898 Previous Monthly Low 1.0695 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0795 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0808 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0767 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0745 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0714 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.082 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0851 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0873    

The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure near 0.5970 after retracing from the 0.6000 barrier during the Asian session on Friday.

NZD/USD edges lower to 0.5970 amid stronger USD and dovish comments from RBNZ. The US economy grew faster than expected in the fourth quarter (Q4). RBNZ’s Orr said the central bank is on course to get inflation back into the target band, rate cuts are getting closer.The US February Core PCE will be in the spotlight on Friday. The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure near 0.5970 after retracing from the 0.6000 barrier during the Asian session on Friday. The dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr weigh on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Investors await the release of US February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Friday for fresh catalysts. 

The US economy expanded faster than expected in the fourth quarter (Q4), owing to robust consumer spending and corporate investment, according to the third estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday. The final US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 grew at an annual rate of 3.4% from the previous 3.2% estimate. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher following the stronger-than-expected data. 

On the Kiwi front, the RBNZ Governor Orr said the central bank is on track to getting inflation back into the target band while adding that interest rates have peaked and cuts are getting closer. The RBNZ indicated that it may cut rates from early next year. However, investors have priced in cuts from August this year. This, in turn, drags the NZD lower and acts as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

The US Core PCE data will be released later on Friday, which is estimated to show an increase of 0.3% MoM and 0.8% YoY in February. If the report showed firmer readings, this could boost the USD. The Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly are set to speak later on Friday.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2624 Today Daily Change 0.0000 Today Daily Change % 0.00 Today daily open 1.2624   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2719 Daily SMA50 1.2678 Daily SMA100 1.2653 Daily SMA200 1.259   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2655 Previous Daily Low 1.2586 Previous Weekly High 1.2804 Previous Weekly Low 1.2575 Previous Monthly High 1.2773 Previous Monthly Low 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2612 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2629 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2588 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2553 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.252 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2657 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.269 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2726    

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the second successive session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Australian Dollar remains tepid as market bias leans towards RBA adopting a dovish stance.Australia's central bank may consider cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024.US Dollar strengthens as recent data suggests that the Fed may delay implementing rate cuts shortly.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the second successive session on Friday. However, market activity is expected to be subdued due to light trading on Good Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) strengthens as recent data indicates annualized economic expansion in the United States (US), driven by consumer spending. This development undermines the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar encountered difficulties amid weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations and Retail Sales figures from Australia. These indicators raised expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the latter half of 2024. Furthermore, Wednesday's release of the softer Australian Monthly Consumer Price Index further reinforced this outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY) seems poised to extend its winning streak, buoyed by hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve (Fed) official that bolstered the Greenback. Fed Governor Christopher Waller's remarks on Wednesday suggested that the central bank might delay interest rate cuts in light of robust inflation data. Investors now await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Friday, which serves as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gain additional insight and guidance. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates as RBA may adopt a dovish stance Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations came in at 4.3% in March, a slight decrease from the previous increase of 4.5%. The seasonally adjusted Aussie Retail Sales showed a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in February, falling short of the expected 0.4% and the prior 1.1%. Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) for February saw a 3.4% rise, maintaining consistency with previous levels but slightly below the anticipated 3.5%. Australia's government has pledged to support a minimum wage increase aligned with inflation this year, recognizing the ongoing challenges low-income families face amid rising living costs. At the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), China's top legislator, Zhao Leji, emphasized China's stance on inclusive economic globalization. He stated that China opposes unilateralism and protectionism in all their forms and is committed to closely linking its development with other countries. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller still sees 'no rush' to cut rates amid sticky inflation data. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed his expectation for just one rate cut this year, cautioning that reducing rates prematurely could lead to greater disruption. US Gross Domestic Product Annualized expanded by 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The market expectation was to be unchanged at a 3.2% increase. The US Gross Domestic Product Price Index remained consistent at a 1.7% increase, as expected in Q4. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) came in at 2.0% in the fourth quarter, slightly below the expected and previous reading of 2.1%. US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 210K in the week ending on March 22, against the expected increase to 215K from 212K prior. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers above psychological support at the 0.6500 level The Australian Dollar trades near 0.6510 on Friday. Immediate resistance is noted around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6528, followed by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6547, and the significant barrier of 0.6550. On the downside, a notable support level is located at the psychological mark of 0.6500, followed by March’s low at 0.6477. A breach below this level could potentially lead the AUD/USD pair to test the major support level at 0.6450. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Pound Sterling.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.11% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% -0.01% 0.05% 0.06%EUR-0.10%   -0.11% -0.08% -0.06% -0.12% -0.06% -0.04%GBP0.00% 0.12%   0.02% 0.04% -0.01% 0.05% 0.07%CAD-0.01% 0.06% -0.03%   0.04% -0.03% 0.02% 0.03%AUD-0.06% 0.02% -0.08% -0.03%   -0.05% 0.01% 0.02%JPY0.02% 0.11% 0.00% 0.03% 0.11%   0.09% 0.13%NZD-0.05% 0.05% -0.04% -0.01% -0.02% -0.05%   0.04%CHF-0.06% 0.03% 0.00% 0.01% -0.01% -0.10% -0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods, and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought-after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0950 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0948 and 7.2259 Reuters estimates.

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at  7.0950 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0948 and 7.2259 Reuters estimates.  

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki offered some verbal intervention on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki offered some verbal intervention on Friday. Suzuki said it’s important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and he will closely watch foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency. Key quotes“Important for currencies to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals.”

“Rapid FX moves are undesirable.”

“Speculative move seen behind forex moves.”

“Closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.”

“Won't rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves.”

“Watching speed of forex moves, not level.”Market reactionAt the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading 0.01% lower on the day at 151.36.   Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.  

The USD/JPY pair holds positive ground for the second consecutive day near 151.45 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours.

USD/JPY trades on a stronger note around the mid-151.00s on Friday. Japan’s Kishida said it was appropriate for the BoJ to maintain easy monetary policy. Fed’s Waller stated there is no rush to cut rate and need to maintain it for longer than expectedThe USD/JPY pair holds positive ground for the second consecutive day near 151.45 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours. The cautious approach from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to keep monetary conditions accommodative exerts some selling pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Additionally, the hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and USD/JPY

Data released from the Statistics Bureau of Japan reported that the headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March climbed 2.6% YoY following a 2.6% rise in February. Meanwhile, the Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy climbed 2.9% YoY, down from a 3.1% rise in February. However, the JPY remains on the defensive following the Japanese inflation data and the dovish comments from the Japanese authorities. 

On Thursday, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that it was appropriate for the central bank to “maintain accommodative monetary conditions.” Kishida further stated that the government will continue to work closely with the BoJ to ensure wages continue to rise and the economy exits from deflation.  Nonetheless, the potential intervention from the Japanese authorities might cap the weakening of the JPY. Japan finance minister Shunichi Suzuki came in some verbal intervention on Friday, saying that he will closely watch the foreign exchange moves with a high sense of urgency and will not rule out any actions to respond to disorderly the FX moves.

On the USD’s front, stronger US economic data and the high-for-longer rate narrative from the Fed lift the Greenback against its rivals. The Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the most outspoken policy hawk, said on Thursday that the central bank is in no rush to cut the benchmark rate and may need to “maintain the current rate target for longer than expected.” Waller added that they need to see more inflation progress before supporting rate cuts.

Next week, Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the first quarter (Q1), along with the US ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report, will be due. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for March on April 5 will be a closely watched event.  USD/JPY Overview Today last price 151.47 Today Daily Change 0.09 Today Daily Change % 0.06 Today daily open 151.38   Trends Daily SMA20 149.74 Daily SMA50 149.34 Daily SMA100 147.6 Daily SMA200 146.84   Levels Previous Daily High 151.54 Previous Daily Low 151.15 Previous Weekly High 151.86 Previous Weekly Low 148.91 Previous Monthly High 150.89 Previous Monthly Low 145.9 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 151.39 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 151.3 Daily Pivot Point S1 151.17 Daily Pivot Point S2 150.96 Daily Pivot Point S3 150.78 Daily Pivot Point R1 151.57 Daily Pivot Point R2 151.75 Daily Pivot Point R3 151.96  



 

Japan Large Retailer Sales climbed from previous 3% to 8% in February

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) up to 1.5% in February from previous 0.8%

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to -3.4% in February from previous -1.5%

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) registered at 4.6% above expectations (3%) in February

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) below forecasts (1.4%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida spoke at a press conference on Thursday in Tokyo.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida spoke at a press conference on Thursday in Tokyo. Kishida stated that it was appropriate for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain accommodative monetary conditions, per Reuters. Key quotes“The government will continue to coordinate closely with the Bank of Japan to ensure wages continue to rise and the economy makes a complete exit from deflation.”

"Japan is experiencing a historical chance to make a full exit from deflation. ”

"Some people may think that the government can declare that Japan is fully out of deflation. But we're still halfway there. ”

"I will promise to ensure wages increase at a pace exceeding the inflation rate next year onward.”Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair was up 0.05% on the day at 151.45. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
 

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 2.6% YoY following a 2.6% rise in the previous reading, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 2.6% YoY following a 2.6% rise in the previous reading, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, Energy climbed 2.9% YoY, down from a 3.1% increase in February. 

Additionally, Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food rose 2.4% for the said month, in line with the market expectation.Market reactionAs of writing, the USD/JPY pair was up 0.04% on the day at 151.43.   Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) down to 2.9% in March from previous 3.1%

Japan Unemployment Rate registered at 2.6% above expectations (2.4%) in February

Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio came in at 1.26 below forecasts (1.27) in February

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.4%) in March

Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 2.6% in March

The GBP/USD pair trades sideways around 1.2622 during the early Asian session on Friday.

GBP/USD trades on a flat note near 1.2622 in Friday’s early Asian session.  The UK GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ in Q4 2023, unchanged from preliminary estimates. The final US Q4 GDP expanded 3.4% against the previous estimate of 3.2%, better than expected. The US February Core PCE will be the highlight on Friday.The GBP/USD pair trades sideways around 1.2622 during the early Asian session on Friday. The market is likely to be mute in light trading on Good Friday. Later in the day, the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is estimated to remain stable at 2.8% YoY.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains under some selling pressure after the economic data showed that the UK economy went into recession in the second half of 2023. The nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% QoQ in the fourth quarter, unchanged from preliminary estimates. However, the GDP numbers did not impact expectations for monetary policy, as investors already factored in a mild recession late last year. 

Additionally, the higher speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will begin three quarter-point reductions in rates this year undermines the GBP. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that interest rate cuts will be ‘in play’ at future BoE policy meetings.

On the other hand, the US economy remained robust in the fourth quarter of last year. This, in turn, provides some support to the Greenback and drags the GBP/USD pair lower. The final US Q4 GDP came in better than expected, growing 3.4% from the previous 3.2% estimate. Meanwhile, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 22 were at 210K from the previous reading of 212K. Finally, the March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was upwardly revised to 79.4, above the preliminary estimate of 76.5.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2625 Today Daily Change -0.0016 Today Daily Change % -0.13 Today daily open 1.2641   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2719 Daily SMA50 1.2679 Daily SMA100 1.2649 Daily SMA200 1.2591   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2641 Previous Daily Low 1.2606 Previous Weekly High 1.2804 Previous Weekly Low 1.2575 Previous Monthly High 1.2773 Previous Monthly Low 1.2518 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2628 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2619 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2617 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2593 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2581 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2653 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2665 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2688    

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) came in at 4.8% below forecasts (5.8%) in February

South Korea Service Sector Output rose from previous 0.1% to 0.7% in February

South Korea Industrial Output Growth came in at 3.1%, above forecasts (0.5%) in February

The GBP/JPY barely moved on Thursday amid thin liquidity conditions and is hovering around 191.00, virtually unchanged as Friday’s Asian session begins.

GBP/JPY hovers around 191.00, reflecting market caution ahead of Japanese unemployment and industrial production updates.Wall Street ends Q1 on a mixed note, with UK's recession confirmation and vigilance over JPY's weakness influencing sentiment.Technical analysis suggests potential for movement if GBP/JPY breaches key levels, with 192.00 and 193.00 as notable targets.The GBP/JPY barely moved on Thursday amid thin liquidity conditions and is hovering around 191.00, virtually unchanged as Friday’s Asian session begins. Wall Street posted a stellar first quarter of 2024, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones finishing in the green. The outlier was the Nasdaq Composite, which dropped 0.12% in the last trading day of Q1. In addition, economic data from the UK showed that Britain’s economy hit a technical recession, as expected by the market consensus. In Japan, authorities remain vigilant about the Japanese Yen's (JPY) weakness, which sent the USD/JPY rallying near 152.00. As the Asian session begins, the Japanese economic docket will reveal the unemployment rate for February, which is expected to remain at 2.4%. At the same time, Industrial Production figures for the same month are expected to rise from -6.7% MoM to 1.4%, while Retail Sales are foreseen to expand by 3%.GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook The GBP/JPY is subdued as liquidity conditions tumble. If buyers regain control, they must push prices above the Tenkan-Sen level at 191.57, which could open the door to challenge 192.00. Further upside is seen at 193.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at 193.53 On the flip side, if the pair drops below 191.00, that would pave the way for further losses. The next support would be the Kijuin-Sen at 190.74, followed by the 190.00 mark. GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily ChartGBP/JPY Overview Today last price 191.06 Today Daily Change -0.09 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 191.15   Trends Daily SMA20 190.34 Daily SMA50 189.26 Daily SMA100 186.67 Daily SMA200 184.78   Levels Previous Daily High 191.54 Previous Daily Low 190.51 Previous Weekly High 193.54 Previous Weekly Low 189.54 Previous Monthly High 191.33 Previous Monthly Low 185.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 190.9 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 191.15 Daily Pivot Point S1 190.6 Daily Pivot Point S2 190.04 Daily Pivot Point S3 189.57 Daily Pivot Point R1 191.62 Daily Pivot Point R2 192.1 Daily Pivot Point R3 192.65    
Scroll Top