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Bảng Tin tức Forex

Thứ ba, Tháng chín 28, 2021

The US Senate Chuck Schumer has stated that they are seeking to bring the debt limit bill to a vote on Tuesday that could pass without Republican vote

The US Senate Chuck Schumer has stated that they are seeking to bring the debt limit bill to a vote on Tuesday that could pass without Republican votes. He says a move on the debt limit would require all 50 Republicans to give permission and not filibuster. In other words, the Democrats expect the Republican party to allow a simple majority debt ceiling vote.  ''We will have a government funding bill ‘very soon’''. Wall Street is on edge Meanwhile, there are conflicting messages which the markets are not enjoying on the day. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq headed for their worst day in four months. At 17.48 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 544 points, or 1.57%. The S&P 500 was down 86.40 points or 1.94% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 403 points, or 2.65%. For instance, the Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin says raising the debt ceiling via budget reconciliation is a “non-starter” that simply takes too long. Across the Capitol, his House counterpart Steny Hoyer put it differently: “Reconciliation is one option and that’s on the table.” This was from Politico earlier on Tuesday.  ''Those mixed messages underscore the confusion among congressional Democrats about how the majority party and its slim majorities will avoid a potential default just three weeks away. Senate Republicans sank Democrats' plan to fund the government into December and kick the debt limit through the 2022 midterms, and now they are about to block an effort from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to lift the debt ceiling by a majority vote on Tuesday.'' Besides that, we have major institutions speaking up about the risks of this debacle. Earlier in the day, JP Morgan Chase  CEO Jamie Dimon said his bank has already begun preparing for potential US credit default as debt limit talks go to wire, ''Failure to address US debt limits in time would be ''potentially catastrophic,'' he told Reuters. 

The Australian dollar has reversed course on Tuesday, falling from a high of 0.7311 as European markets opened when a surge in US yields sent the US d

The many cross-currents in the forex space right now is pressuring AUD.AUD/USD bears are in charge and testing a critical daily dynamic support line.The Australian dollar has reversed course on Tuesday, falling from a high of 0.7311 as European markets opened when a surge in US yields sent the US dollar firmly bid across the board. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is down 0.6% on the day and trades near 0.7235, hovering over the lows of 0.7228 and on thin ice, technically speaking, testing below daily trendline support.   AUD can't stay up on good news Initially, AUD/USD gained ground on Tuesday, helped by high resource prices and the blistering pace of vaccinations at home. The price moved from 0.7250 to a high of 0.7294 by the close of play on Monday before moving to Tuesday's highs following data in the Asian session that showed Aussie Retail Sales fell 1.7% in August when analysts had expected coronavirus lockdowns in key states such as New Soth Wales and Victoria to cause a 2.5% drop. However, any optimism in the data over an acceleration in vaccinations was short-lived. AU/US yield spreads weigh on on AUD/USD There are still doubts about the speed of global economic re-opening and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still insisting it will hold rates at 0.1% out to 2024, which kept local two-year yields down at just 0.024%. As a result, the spread between Australian and US yields have widened significantly which is weighing on AUD/USD in NY trade. Meanwhile, the US dollar climbed to its highest level in more than 10 months on Tuesday as a rise in US Treasury yields made the mighty US dollar more attractive to investors. US Treasury yields have surged since the end of last week following the hawkish twist at the Federal Reserve. The chairman, Jerome Powell, advocated for tapering to start sooner than markets might have expected considering a contraction in the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, that report was just one many reports that have been otherwise very encouraging so the Fed are more inclined to look through the glitch in anticipation of better data to come in imminently. Powell said that the central bank will likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and the dots have hinted that interest rate hikes may follow in the second half of 2022. On Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a three-month peak at 1.544%. Moreover, there are expectations that infrastructure spending is going to get done which will see a lot more Treasury supply which should drive up yields, supporting the US dollar. Wall Street is in meltdown Additionally, AUD/USD is being hit by a tumble on Wall Street and risk sentiment. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq headed for their worst day in four months on Tuesday as weak consumer confidence data deepened concerns over slowing economic growth. The surge in Treasury yields has hit mega-cap technology stocks. US consumer confidence this month unexpectedly fell to its lowest since February, as soaring COVID-19 infections intensified concerns about the economy's near-term prospects.  At 17.48 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 544 points, or 1.57%. The S&P 500 was down 86.40 points or 1.94% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 403 points, or 2.65%. Overall, the many cross-currents in the forex space right now, such as Evergrande, Delta, and the US debt ceiling are a weight on risk and that is going to prevent proxy currencies such as the Aussie gaining traction for long, even on positive news.  The US dollar smile theory continues to play out.  AUD/USD technical analysis As per yesterday's pre-Retail Sales technical analysis, AUD/USD Price Analysis: Retail Sales risk ahead, bears testing 0.7270 key zone, where it was noted that there would be risk of a bounce on positive data before the next move to the downside, the price action has behaved in accordance with the analysis.  it was stated that should the neckline hold, there will be prospects of an upside continuation should the data surprise as more robust than forecast.  AUD/USD hourly chart''As illustrated, the price has made a 50% mean reversion to the neckline of the formation. This would be expected to hold into the data today.''Live market update As illustrated above, the price did indeed move higher on the data only to succumb to selling pressures below the 50% mean reversion level. AUD/USD daily chart It was explained that from a daily perspective, ''following the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the price is resisted below the 21-day moving average and bears will be looking for a downside extension of the daily bearish impulse.  The dynamic trendline support will first need to give and on a retest, bears could well be encouraged to move in.'' ''The -272% Fibonacci retracement level of the correction comes in near 0.7190. Thereafter, 0.7160 will be pressured at the -61.8% that has a confluence with the 20 Aug highs.''

The EUR/JPY’s reversal from three-week highs at 130.35 seen earlier on Tuesday has been short-lived, as the pair found buyers at 130.00 psychological

EUR/JPY reversal from three-week highs at 130.35 contained at 130.00.The euro appreciates for the fifth consecutive day against a weaker yen.The US/Japan yields' differential is hurting the yen across the board.
​​​​​​​ The EUR/JPY’s reversal from three-week highs at 130.35 seen earlier on Tuesday has been short-lived, as the pair found buyers at 130.00 psychological level to defend its near-term upside bias. The Japanese yen, under pressure amid higher US yields The solid advance on the US bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year note above 1.5% as the US Federal Reserve signaled the end of the Quantitative Easing program, has been hurting the safe-haven Japanese yen across the board. In that context, the common currency has taken advantage of a weaker yen, in spite of an energy crisis and the political uncertainty in Germany, which are dampening the Eurozone’s economic growth prospects,  to post a five-day rally. The euro has appreciated about 1.75% over the last five days to breach the mentioned 130.00 level and approach two-month highs at 130.70. EUR/JPY: Next upside target is 130.70 On the upside, above 130.00 psychological level, the next significative area would be at 130.70 (Sept. 3 and 8 highs and the 20-day SMA) then 131.05 (Jul. 14 high), and 132.30 (Jul. 1 high). On the contrary, a reversal below 130.00 might look for support at 129.75 (Sept. 28 low) and 129.40 (Sept 24 low). Technical levels to watch    

JP Morgan Chase has begun preparing for potential US credit default as debt limit talks go to wire, CEO Jamie Dimon said according to Reuters. Dimon s

JP Morgan Chase has begun preparing for potential US credit default as debt limit talks go to wire, CEO Jamie Dimon said according to Reuters. Dimon says he expects policymakers will address the debt limits in time; cautions failure to do so would be ''potentially catastrophic''. Dimon says would support a bipartisan bill to get rid of the US debt ceiling. His comments follow yesterday's news whereby  Republican Senators blocked the bill that would have suspended the debt ceiling until December 2022 and funded the government past September 30.  The 48-50 outcome was not a surprise as Majority Leader Schumer switched his vote to no at the last moment in order to retain the option of calling for another vote on the bill later.  60 votes were needed and so the Democrats are left with few options.  Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman expected that the most likely option is that the debt ceiling is folded into the human infrastructure package that the Democrats plan to pass by the budget reconciliation process requiring no Republican support.  ''And yet even this is highly precarious, as centrist Democrats are threatening to withhold support unless the $3.5 trln price tag is reduced.  Stay tuned.'' Market implications This is likely playing into the risk-off sentiment with US equities sharply lower on the day.  The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq headed for their worst day in four months. At 17.48 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 544 points, or 1.57%. The S&P 500 was down 86.40 points or 1.94% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 403 points, or 2.65%.

United States 7-Year Note Auction rose from previous 1.155% to 1.332%

The US dollar failed on its first attempt to break the year-to-date high at 111.65 earlier on Tuesday and the pair gave away some ground to find suppo

The US dollar remains bid, supported above 111.25.US/Japan bond yields' differential is boosting greenbacks rally.Analysts at Credit Suisse see the USD likely to reach levels past 117.00.The US dollar failed on its first attempt to break the year-to-date high at 111.65 earlier on Tuesday and the pair gave away some ground to find support above 111.25. The USD remains buoyed on higher US yields In spite of the recent reversal, the near-term USD/JPY trend remains positive following a five-day winning streak. The US dollar has appreciated beyond 2% over the last five days, buoyed by the US bond yield’s rally amid the Federal Reserve’s signals towards the end of the Quantitative Easing era. The bond yields differential between the US and Japan, with the Bank of Japan yield curve control policy keeping the 10-year note at 0%, has offset the impact of a somewhat sourer sentiment caused by concerns about a debt crisis at China’s Evergrande construction giant, which should have offered some support to the safe-haven Japanese yen. USD/JPY: likely to reach beyond 117.00 – Credit Suisse Credit Suisse’s FX Analysis Team sees the dollar marching higher, boosted by a solid appreciation in US yields: “Whilst the 112.23/40 resistance should be respected, an eventual break would see an important and large base complete to signal a more sustained change of trend higher. We would expect this to provide the platform for a move to the 2018 highs at 114.25/55 initially, with scope for 117.20 in due course, the long-term downtrend from April 1990.” Technical levels to watch    

XAU/USD is slumping 0.75%, trading at $1,736 at the time of writing. The market sentiment is in risk-off mode as the Federal Reserve prepares to unwin

Gold prices fall on broad US Dollar strength across the board.Fed’s bond-taper prospects exert downward pressure in XAU/USD.Surging US bond yields weigh on the non-yielding metal.US spending bills and debt ceiling discussions keeps investors unease.XAU/USD is slumping 0.75%, trading at $1,736 at the time of writing. The market sentiment is in risk-off mode as the Federal Reserve prepares to unwind its pandemic stimulus, triggering a rise in US bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark rate up three basis points (bps) sitting at 1.5158. Additionally, discussions regarding the increase of the debt ceiling and the spending bill in the US keep the market worried about the outcome. Additionally, European stock indices printed losses between 0.51% and 2.59%, while across the pond,  the four major indices are sliding between 1.47% and 2.50.Higher US bond yield underpins the US Dollar Index (DXY)The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of six peers, climbs 0.32%, at 93.72. In the meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is testifying before the US Senate. He told them that the central bank has “all but” met the bar to begin reducing the bond-pandemic stimulus, reinforcing that after ending the bond tapering process, it will not start immediately hiking rates yet. In the same meeting, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the Treasury would effectively run out of money around October 18 unless the US House and the Senate suspend or increase the federal debt limit. That said, as investors keep unease about these factors, US bond yields could rise in safe-haven flows, dampening the prospects of higher gold prices.XAU/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookDaily chartXAU/USD is trading below its daily moving averages, supporting the bearish bias. After reaching a daily low at $1,728.17, it bounced off to settle at current levels. A daily close below the September 27 low at $1,744.88 could pave the way for further losses. The first support level would be the August 11 low at $1,724.28. A decisive break of that level would expose the August 10 low at $1,717.87, followed by the August 9 dip to $1,687.78. On the flip side, if gold bulls would like to reclaim higher prices, they would need a daily close above $1,750.10 in their attempt to lift XAU/USD near the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $1,787.82. The Relative Strength Index is at 35.70, heading south, supporting the bearish bias.

The sterling has been going through its worst session in the last months on Tuesday. The GBP/USD has plummeted about 1.16% so far today reaching level

GBP/USD dives 1.16% on the day and approaches 1.3500.US dollar strength and concerns about the UK economy hit the pound.Below 1.3500, then the pair might aim to YTD low at 1.3455.The sterling has been going through its worst session in the last months on Tuesday. The GBP/USD has plummeted about 1.16% so far today reaching levels in the vicinity of 1.3520 for the first time since mid-January.Strong USD, surging gas prices hit the poundThe pound is dropping hard on Tuesday against a stronger US dollar. The greenback's demand has been boosted by the solid rally on US bond yields, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s signals towards the end of the accommodative policy adopted on the back of the COVID-19 crisis. Furthermore, the surging gas prices and the fuel shortages caused by Brexit restrictions in the UK, are spurring concerns about the prospects of fragile economic growth and surging inflation and are spooking investors away from the GBP. GBP/USD nearing YTD low at 1.3455 From a technical point of view, a further decline below the intra-day low at 1.3525 might send the pair towards 1.3455 (January 11 low) and 1.3434 (December 29 low). On the upside, with the RSI Index at oversold levels on hourly and daily charts, the pair might show some recovery attempts from 1.3525 lows. In that sense, a GBP rebound past 1.3600 (August 24 and September 22 lows) might ease selling pressure on the pair and open the path towards 1.3730 (September 27 high) and 1.3750 (September 23 high). Technical levels to watch    

The Federal Reserve is becomingly increasingly comfortable with the prospect of tapering its bond purchases according to analysts at Wells Fargo. They

The Federal Reserve is becomingly increasingly comfortable with the prospect of tapering its bond purchases according to analysts at Wells Fargo. They point out that absent an employment report shocker or a debt-ceiling crisis, the Fed could make a formal tapering announcement as early as the November meeting.  Key Quotes:  “The Fed is currently purchasing $80 billion worth of Treasury securities and $40 billion worth of mortgage backed securities (MBS) each month. Following that formal taper announcement we expect the Federal Reserve to slow its actual bond purchases shortly thereafter, and anticipate it could reduce its net purchases to zero by around the middle of 2022. We still see policy rate increases as some way off. Our policy rate forecast is for an initial 25 bps increase in Q3-2023 and a cumulative total of 75 bps of tightening by the end of that year.” “Our outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy is mildly hawkish compared to consensus. Our sense is that a view of a formal taper announcement by the November meeting, and subsequent slowing of bond purchases shortly thereafter, is broadly in line with the consensus. With respect to eventual interest rate increases, we see a faster pace of rate hikes than the consensus forecast. We expect an initial 25 bps rate increase in Q3-2023, one quarter later than the consensus forecast for a rate hike in Q2. However, for the second half of 2023 our forecast for a cumulative 75 bps of rate hikes exceeds the consensus forecast for 50 bps of cumulative tightening.”

On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico will announce its decision on monetary policy. Market consensus see a 25 basis points rate hike and also analysts at T

On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico will announce its decision on monetary policy. Market consensus see a 25 basis points rate hike and also analysts at TD Securities. They see another hawkish statement coming from Banxico. Key Quotes:  “We expect Banxico to hike by 25bps and continue to sound hawkish given inflation dynamics and rising US rates. However, we also continue to expect to see the policy statement contain a dissent for a hold by two board members.” “MXN's carry has helped it to rebound from bouts of weakness in 2021. However rising US yields will place an additional impetus on Banxico to ensure MXN short term yields remain competitive, in order to minimize the potential for MXN instability.” “A hawkish bias is priced into rates into year-end, with some risk for a greater than 25bps rate hike. This remains the logical direction of risk in our view, but we continue to expect 25bps increments from Banxico.”

The euro is losing ground for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, reaching levels only a few pips above August 20 low at 1.1663. A stronger USD on t

The euro loses ground against the dollar to test YTD low at 1.1665.Higher US yields and a dovish ECB are weighing on the EUR.FX analysts at Rabobank anticipate a further drop towards 1.1600.The euro is losing ground for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, reaching levels only a few pips above August 20 low at 1.1663. A stronger USD on the back of higher US bond yields and the surging gas prices in Europe are weighing heavily on the common currency.The euro suffers against a stronger US DollarThe US bond yields’ positive trend, with the benchmark 10-year note rallying beyond 1.5% for the second day in a row has increased the greenback’s attractiveness for the investors. The Federal Reserve’s signals towards the end of the Quantitative Easing era are pushing US yields higher. In Europe, the energy crisis, with gas prices surging and with inventories at historical lows is casting doubt about the post-pandemic recovery in the region. Beyond that, ECB’s commitment to the current accommodative stance adds negative pressure on the euro. EUR/USD: Below 1.1664, next target will be 1.1600 – Rabobank The Rabobank FX Analysis Team sees the pair under pressure amid the ECB’s dovish policy and the uncertain regional growth prospects: “Given that the prospect of a Fed funds rate at the end is live in the market and given growth concerns in emerging markets, our six-month EUR/USD target of 1.16 looks set to be hit sooner than we had been anticipating.” Technical levels to watch    

Data released on Tuesday showed a decline in September in Consumer confidence. With no shortage of other factors to blame, such as wildfires, war, hur

Data released on Tuesday showed a decline in September in Consumer confidence. With no shortage of other factors to blame, such as wildfires, war, hurricanes and a border crisis, analysts at Wells Fargo see room for improvement in coming months.  Key Quotes:  “Consumer confidence fell to 109.3 from 115.2; that puts confidence at a seven-month low as COVID cases continued to pile up during September.” “A strong labor market might be the only thing giving consumers much cheer these days amid an onslaught of negative news. Notably, despite the declines in overall confidence, expectations and the present situation indices, the share of consumers saying that jobs are plentiful rose to its highest level on record. In figures going back to the 1960s, there has never been a greater consensus among consumers that jobs are plentiful at the moment.” “After a strong run for summer payroll reports, August's lackluster 235K gain was a disappointment. Our read is that the soft hiring was more a function of lack of available labor than a slowing in hiring. That said, initial jobless claims have risen in two out of the three weeks so far in September. While consumers know there are a lot of opportunities out there currently, they are more concerned about what employment will look like in a few months. This may also just be the consequence of coming off of a hot labor market and the expectation that things can only be so good for so long.” “Next week's employment report should be able to shed more light on the state of the labor market and whether August was a blip, as we suspect, or the start of a weaker trend.”

At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, said inflation is now more concerning than earlier this year. Speaking al

At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, said inflation is now more concerning than earlier this year. Speaking alongside Treasury Secretary Yellen, Powell said the test for raising rates is higher and explained that even with tapering, the Fed will continue to buy bonds until mid-2022. Regarding the labor market, Powell sees still a long way toward maximum employment. He said they believe at the Fed, inflation will come down. According to him, supply-side restrictions are at the heart of inflation. The US dollar is holding onto daily gains across the board. The DXY gains 0.30% at 93.70, on its way to the highest daily close since November.

As the American session kicks in, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2700, up 0.59% at the time of writing. The market sentiment is downbeat, with global sto

USD/CAD rises on the back of higher US yields and risk-off market sentiment.The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a fresh two-month high at 1.567%.The fall in oil prices weighs on the USD/CAD.US Consumer Confidence drops for the third consecutive month.As the American session kicks in, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2700, up 0.59% at the time of writing. The market sentiment is downbeat, with global stocks recording losses in the prospects of central banks worldwide, looking forward to reducing the pandemic stimulus programs implemented since March of 2020. Additional pressure in the market sentiment is the passing of the spending bill and the suspension of the debt ceiling in the US. Failure to pass the bill will dry out the Treasury, which could cause the run out of money of the US government between the second half of October or nearly November. The 10-year benchmark yield rose eight basis points (bps) reached a new high of 1.567%, underpinning the US Dollar Index, which tracks the buck’s performance against six rivals, up 0.36%, currently at 93.75. Western Intermediate Texas (WTI) is down some 0.70%, trading at $74.74, exerting upward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.US Consumer Confidence slide for the third straight monthMeanwhile, the Conference Board released the Consumer Confidence reading, which fell for the third consecutive month down to 109.3 from August’s 115.2.  “Consumer confidence dropped in September as the spread of the Delta variant continued to dampen optimism,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. According to the report, spending intentions for homes, autos, and appliances retreated again. Franco added, “These back-to-back declines suggest that consumers have grown more cautious and are likely to curtain spending forward.” Home prices surged 19.9% in July, as reported by S&P Global, a tick lower than the 20% foreseen by economists. In the meantime, the Secretary of Treasure Janet Yelland and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are testifying before Congress on the CARES Act. You can follow the coverage here.  

The EUR/GBP jumped from one-week lows under 0.820, breaking above 0.8600. The euro soared to 0.8640, reaching the highest level since July 21. The cro

Pound under pressure amid fuel supply crisis in the UK.EUR/GBP about to test the 200-day SMA for the first time since January.The EUR/GBP jumped from one-week lows under 0.820, breaking above 0.8600. The euro soared to 0.8640, reaching the highest level since July 21. The cross remains near the highs, with a solid bullish momentum on the back of a weaker pound across the board. The crisis in the supply chain in the United Kingdom is affecting the near-term economic outlook and weighs on the currency. Economists warn the crisis could impact on critical sectors, like what is happening with fuel, and probably push inflation higher and weigh on consumer confidence. The pound is the worst performer among G10 currencies. The GBP/USD pair is falling more than 150 pips as it trades at 1.3525, the lowest level since January while EUR/GBP is having the biggest daily gain in months. EUR/GBP holding firm above 0.8600 The cross approached the 200-day moving average that stands at 0.8650. A daily close around the current level should support more gains in the short term. The next level to watch stands at 0.8665/70, the June high. A decline back under 0.8600 would alleviate the bullish pressure and should suggest the continuation of the range between 0.8600 and 0.8500. Technical levels  

European Central Bank member Peter Kažimír has said that the bank may not necessarily increase bond-buying via the APP program. Kažimír, who is also t

European Central Bank member Peter Kažimír has said that the bank may not necessarily increase bond-buying via the APP program. Kažimír, who is also the Governor of the Bank of Slovakia, has referred to an old purchase program which is set to continue running when the emergency PEPP scheme concludes. EUR/USD has responded positively to these comments, edging closer to 1.17 and countering broad dollar strength.  Earlier in September, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that a reduction in PEPP buying should not be considered tapering.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has sent Congress a letter saying that the US will likely exhaust its extraordinary measures to prevent hitting the

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has sent Congress a letter saying that the US will likely exhaust its extraordinary measures to prevent hitting the debt limit by October 18. Lawmakers may either suspend or raise the cap on overall debt.  Yellen is testifying in Congress alongside her Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who inherited her at the helm of the central bank. While the topic of their testimony is the CARES act, questions about fiscal expenditure, inflation and the state of the economy will grab attention. The US dollar is on the rise amid concerns about the energy crisis causing outages in China, fuel shortages in the UK and soaring energy prices in Europe.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined again in September and now stands at 109.3, down from 115.2 in August. Further details of the

US CB Consumer Confidence Index fell to 109.3 for the current month.US Dollar Index holds steady near one-month tops, around the 93.75 area.The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined again in September and now stands at 109.3, down from 115.2 in August. Further details of the publication revealed that the Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — fell to 143.4 from 148.9 last month. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — fell to 86.6 from 92.8. Market reaction The market reacted little to the data as the focus remains on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stood tall near the highest level since August 20, with bulls eyeing a move to reclaim the 94.00 mark.

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index fell from previous 9 to -3 in September

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The topic of other appearance is

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The topic of other appearance is the CARES act, enacted at the pandemic. Powell faces questions about the Fed's recent signaling of tapering the Fed's bond-buying scheme amid rising inflation and a growing economy. The administration's proposed $3.5 trillion spending program could be the focus of questions directed to Yellen. The US dollar is trading on high ground amid safe-haven flows. Power outages in China cause disruptions to manufacturing and threaten to derail global growth. 

The USD/JPY pair continued scaling higher through the early North American session and tested YTD tops, around the 111.65 region in the last hour. The

USD/JPY gained strong follow-through traction on Tuesday and retested YTD tops.Surging US bond yields acted as a tailwind for the USD and remained supportive.The risk-off impulse failed to benefit the safe-haven JPY or hinder the momentum.The USD/JPY pair continued scaling higher through the early North American session and tested YTD tops, around the 111.65 region in the last hour. The pair prolonged its recent bullish trajectory and gained strong follow-through traction for the fifth successive session on Tuesday. The widening of the nominal yield differential between the US and Japanese government bonds continued driving flows away from the Japanese yen. The US Treasury bond yields have been rallying since the end of last week after the Fed hinted that it would begin tapering its bond purchases as soon as November. Adding to this, the dot plot indicated that policymakers were inclined to raise interest rates in 2022. Conversely, the 10-year Japanese government bond yields remained near zero due to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy. This, along with a broad-based US dollar strength, provided an additional boost to the USD/JPY pair and contributed to the positive momentum. Bulls seemed rather unaffected by the risk-off impulse, which tends to benefit the safe-haven JPY. The global risk sentiment took a hit amid a selloff in the money markets, worries about the debt crisis at China Evergrandeand Group the intensifying energy crisis in Europe and China. Next on tap will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment would provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD remains well offered and trades at shouting distance from YTD lows in the proximity of 1.1660. EUR/USD targets the YTD lows near 1.1660 EUR/US

EUR/USD keeps the offered note unchanged on Tuesday.ECB’s Lagarde favoured the current accommodative stance in the ECB.Chief Powell testifies before the Senate later in the session.EUR/USD remains well offered and trades at shouting distance from YTD lows in the proximity of 1.1660. EUR/USD targets the YTD lows near 1.1660 EUR/USD extends the bearish move for yet another session on turnaround Tuesday and at the same time enters the fourth consecutive week with losses. Higher US yields and the intense recovery in the greenback propelled the US Dollar Index (DXY) to new 2021 highs near 93.80 ahead of the testimony by Fed’s Powell before the Senate. Earlier at the ECB Forum in Sintra, President Lagarde defended the current accommodative stance in the central bank, which will ensure a safe exit from the coronavirus pandemic and is expected to help bring inflation back to the bank’s goal. Later in the session, and apart from Powell, the Conference Board will publish it Consumer Confidence gauge for the current month. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is losing 0.19% at 1.1673 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1755 (weekly high Sep.22) seconded by 1.1782 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1845 (weekly high Sep.14). On the other hand, a break below 1.1672 (monthly low Sep.28) would target 1.1663 (2021 low Aug.20) en route to 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4 2020).  

USD/JPY continues to surge higher. Economists at Credit Suisse stay biased higher with resistance seen at 111.66, then 112.23/40. An eventual break ab

USD/JPY continues to surge higher. Economists at Credit Suisse stay biased higher with resistance seen at 111.66, then 112.23/40. An eventual break above here would introduce scope for 117.20, the long-term downtrend from April 1990. Support moves higher to 110.52 “With US yields having completed near-term bases and expected to rise further, we continue to look for a test on long-term resistance, starting at the 111.66 June YTD high and stretching up to the 2019 and 2020 highs at 112.40 and 112.23 respectively.  “Whilst the 112.23/40 resistance should be respected, an eventual break would see an important and large base complete to signal a more sustained change of trend higher. We would expect this to provide the platform for a move to the 2018 highs at 114.25/55 initially, with scope for 117.20 in due course, the long-term downtrend from April 1990.” “Support moves to 110.93 initially, then 110.78, with 110.52 ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. Below can see a pullback towards 110.16/08, but with fresh buyers expected here.”  

Gold extended its intraday descent through the early North American session and dropped to seven-week lows, below the $1,730 level in the last hour. S

Gold came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and dropped to multi-week lows.Surging US bond yields underpinned the USD and weighed heavily on the precious metal.The risk-off impulse in the markets extended some support to the safe-haven commodity.Gold Price Forecast: Focus remains on yields as XAU/USD eyes a pennant breakoutGold extended its intraday descent through the early North American session and dropped to seven-week lows, below the $1,730 level in the last hour. Soaring US Treasury bond yields turned out to be a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal amid expectations for an early policy tightening by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the US central bank hinted last week that it will soon begin rolling back its massive pandemic-era stimulus as soon as November. Adding to this, the so-called dot plot indicated that more policymakers were inclined to raise interest rates in 2022. The market speculations were reaffirmed by comments from a slew of influential FOMC members. Fed Governor Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans all expressed comfort with the first phase of policy tightening on Monday. Adding to this, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said this Tuesday the policy normalization can move faster than following the 2007 to 2009 crisis amid the robust speed of the economic recovery. Hence, the market focus will remain on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, due later in the day. In the prepared remarks released on Monday, Powell cautioned that the causes of the recent rise in inflation may last longer than anticipated. The central bank chief said that the economic growth continues to strengthen but has met with upward price pressures caused by supply chain bottlenecks and other factors. Powell further added that the central bank would move against unchecked inflation if needed and contributed to the upward pressure on the US bond yields. This, in turn, pushed the US dollar to the highest level since August 20, which was seen as another factor weighing on the dollar-denominated gold. That said, the risk-off impulse in the financial markets acted as a tailwind for traditional safe-haven assets and helped limit any further losses for the XAU/USD, at least for now. Investors remain worried about potential risks from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group. This, along with a selloff in the money markets and the intensifying energy crisis, took its toll on the global risk sentiment. Nevertheless, gold remains vulnerable to prolong its bearish trajectory and aim to test the $1,700 round-figure mark. Technical levels to watch  

The Bank of England policymaker, Catherine Mann, was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that price growth for natural gas is pretty extre

The Bank of England policymaker, Catherine Mann, was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that price growth for natural gas is pretty extreme, but need to look if it will continue. Additional quotes: What happens to momentum for prices is critical in judging if inflation is transitory. The signal from 5Y5Y inflation measures is not troubling. She expects demand for goods to taper off. Financial markets have brought forward prospects for BoE tightening into 2022. This is not supportive of the inflation surge. Market reaction: The British pound had a rather muted reaction to the remarks and languished near multi-month lows, around mid-1.3500s  against its American counterpart.

United States Housing Price Index (MoM): 1.4% (July) vs previous 1.6%

United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) below forecasts (20%) in July: Actual (19.9%)

United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 16.5% in September 24 from previous 17.1%

The firm note in US yields favours the selling bias in the Japanese safe haven and propels the greenback, all lifting EUR/JPY back to levels above the

EUR/JPY finally manages to surpass the 130.00 hurdle.The yen remains well offered on higher US yields.Lagarde defended once again the accommodative stance of ECB.The firm note in US yields favours the selling bias in the Japanese safe haven and propels the greenback, all lifting EUR/JPY back to levels above the 130.00 mark, or fresh 3-week peaks. EUR/JPY focused on yields, data Indeed, yields of the US 10-year note pushed above the 1.50% region and lifted the US Dollar Index (DXY) to challenge YTD highs around 93.70, at the same time adding extra pressure to the risk-linked galaxy. Around the euro, ECB’s Lagarde said at the ECB Forum in Sintra the central bank is expected to keep the accommodative monetary conditions intact to ensure a safe transition once the pandemic finishes and the return of inflation to the 2% target. Earlier in the euro docket, the German Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK improved to 0.3 for the month of October. Across the pond, advanced trade balance figures showed the deficit is predicted to widen to $87.6B in August. EUR/JPY relevant levels So far, the cross is up 0.37% at 130.28 and a surpass of 130.74 (monthly high Sep.3) would aim to 130.80 (100-day SMA) and then 131.02 (Fibo level). On the downside, the next support comes at 129.65 (200-day SMA) followed by 129.39 (Fibo level) and finally 127.93 (monthly low Sep.22).

AUD/USD remains in a short-term range above support at 0.7221/19. Nonetheless, economists at Credit Suisse stay mildly biased towards a test of major

AUD/USD remains in a short-term range above support at 0.7221/19. Nonetheless, economists at Credit Suisse stay mildly biased towards a test of major long-term support at 0.7121/06. Scope for further short-term weakness towards major support at 0.7121/06 “We stay biased lower, with key short-term support still seen at the corrective price low at 0.7221/19, below which would open up a test of much more major support starting at 0.7121/06, which is the ‘neckline’ to a major potential top and stretching down through 0.7053 to 0.6991. This area includes the 38.2 retracement of the 2020/21 rise and the major November 2020 price low.”  “First resistance stays at 0.7289, which continues to cap the market into the close, then 0.7347, above which would negate the recent bearish ‘outside day’” and help to stabilize the market.”  “Only above 0.7408/10 would turn the risks higher.”  

The AUD/USD pair remained depressed heading into the North American session and was last seen hovering near daily lows, just below mid-0.7200s. The pa

A combination of factors prompted fresh selling around AUD/USD on Tuesday.Surging US bond yields, the risk-off impulse boosted the safe-haven greenback.A sustained break below the 0.7220 support will set the stage for further losses.The AUD/USD pair remained depressed heading into the North American session and was last seen hovering near daily lows, just below mid-0.7200s. The pair struggled to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick, instead met with some fresh supply near the 0.7310 region and has now reversed the previous day's positive move. The US dollar tracked a strong move up in the US Treasury bond yields and shot to the highest level since August 20. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to the highest level since June 17 amid prospects for an early policy tightening by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the Fed hinted last week that it would begin rolling back its massive pandemic-era stimulus as soon as November. Moreover, the dot plot pointed to policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse in the markets provided an additional boost to the safe-haven greenback and further weighed on the perceived riskier aussie. Investors remain worried about potential risks from the debt crisis at China Evergrande. This, along with a selloff in the money markets and the intensifying energy crisis, took its toll on the global risk sentiment. With the latest leg down, the AUD/USD pair has now drifted back closer to strong horizontal support near the 0.7220 region. A sustained breakthrough, leading to a subsequent slide below the 0.7200 mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for further losses and allow bearish traders to challenge YTD lows, around the 0.7100 mark. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This will be accompanied by the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Apart from this, the US bond yields, along with the broader market risk sentiment will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD is approaching its August low at 1.1664. As the US rates are expected to be firm and amid concerns that growth in China is slowing, adding to

EUR/USD is approaching its August low at 1.1664. As the US rates are expected to be firm and amid concerns that growth in China is slowing, adding to a set of worries for emerging markets investors, economists at Rabobank expect the pair to hit the 1.16 level sooner than anticipated. Uncertainty connected with end of Merkel era is not positive for the EUR “There is little expectation that the ECB will steer away from its dovish policy bias in the coming months. While Germany’s election hasn’t been a prime market moving factor, the uncertainty connected with the end of the Merkel era is not a positive factor for the EUR.” “The USD is unlikely to retreat significantly until confidence in EM has been lifted. This likely means that stronger regional growth prospects will have to be in place. This will be more difficult to achieve in an environment in which is dominates by fears of both higher energy prices and firmer US rates.” “EUR/USD is today approaching the August low of 1.1664, a break below is likely to shift focus to the 1.16 level.” “Given that the prospect of a Fed funds rate at the end is live in the market and given growth concerns in emerging markets, our six-month EUR/USD target of 1.16 looks set to be hit sooner than we had been anticipating.”  

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard was out with some comments this Tuesday, saying that robust expansion will continue through 2022 and

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard was out with some comments this Tuesday, saying that robust expansion will continue through 2022 and it will take time for labor supply issues to iron out. Additional quotes: Fed being a little more aggressive would best ensure longer expansion. Sees two rate increases in 2022, calls for the balance sheet to begin declining as soon as bond purchases end. Fed showing commitment to higher inflation framework but now risks overachieving with inflation too high for too long. Sees inflation remaining at 2.8% through next year, at the high end of recent projections. At this point would take a very large shock to throw off the start of the bond taper. Fed policy normalization can move faster than following the 2007 to 2009 crisis, given the speed of recovery. Market reaction: The comments remained supportive of the strong bid tone surrounding the US dollar, which was last seen hovering near one-month tops ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.

United States Goods Trade Balance increased to $-87.6B in August from previous $-87.7B

United States Wholesale Inventories registered at 1.2% above expectations (0.2%) in August

NZD/USD is breaking back below its 55-day average at 0.7011. A close below its recent lows at 0.6981 is set to turn the short-term risks lower within

NZD/USD is breaking back below its 55-day average at 0.7011. A close below its recent lows at 0.6981 is set to turn the short-term risks lower within the broad range, analysts at Credit Suisse report. Break above 0.7034/36 to relieve the recent downside pressure “A close below the 50% retracement of the July/August upswing and the aforementioned price lows at 0.6988/81 would turn the short-term risks lower within the broader range, with next support seen at 0.6933/29, then 0.6878.” “We would expect 0.6805 to define the bottom of the range, with our broader outlook staying neutral.” “Near-term resistance moves to 0.7034/36, above which would relieve the recent downside pressure. Only a break above the aforementioned downtrend at 0.7114/16 would reassert conviction in a move higher.”  “Next resistance above 0.7114/16 here is seen at the recent high at 0.7171, before the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 fall at .7211/15, with scope for an eventual move to 0.7317/24 if the downtrend is broken.”  

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, speaking at a forum this Tuesday, said that we will only react to improvements in headlin

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, speaking at a forum this Tuesday, said that we will only react to improvements in headline inflation that we are confident are durable. Key quotes: There is a risk that higher carbon pricing might reduce purchasing power and lead to relative price changes that push down underlying inflation. We still need an accommodative monetary policy stance to exit the pandemic safely and bring inflation sustainably back to 2%. The key challenge is to ensure that we do not overreact to transitory supply shocks that have no bearing on the medium term. The typical nature of the recovery is creating frictions in the economy, which can produce opposing effects on growth and inflation. Once these pandemic-driven effects pass, we expect inflation to decline. We expect to see further progress toward an even tighter alignment between the expected time of lift-off for our policy rates and the most likely inflation outlook Monetary policy should normally “look through” temporary supply-driven inflation. We are monitoring developments carefully but, for now, we see no signs that this increase in inflation is becoming broad-based across the economy. Once the pandemic emergency comes to an end, our forward guidance on rates, as well as purchases under the asset purchase programme, will ensure that monetary policy remains supportive. Inflation expectations also do not point to risks of prolonged overshooting. Monetary policy must remain focused on steering the economy safely out of the pandemic emergency and lifting inflation sustainably towards our 2% target. Looking beyond the pandemic, we expect inflation to only slowly converge towards 2%. Market reaction: The comments did little to provide any impetus to the shared currency or lend any support to the EUR/USD pair, which remained depressed near below the 1.1700 mark amid stronger USD.

The GBP/USD pair added to its heavy intraday losses and dived to sub-1.3600s, or over two-month lows during the mid-European session. Following an ear

GBP/USD came under intense selling pressure on Tuesday amid a broad-based USD strength.Surging US bond yields, the risk-off impulse in the markets lifted the safe-haven greenback.Oversold RSI on the 1-hour chart warrants some caution for bearish traders ahead of Powell.The GBP/USD pair added to its heavy intraday losses and dived to sub-1.3600s, or over two-month lows during the mid-European session. Following an early uptick to the 1.3715 area, the GBP/USD pair witnessed aggressive selling on Tuesday and took along some short-term trading stops near the 1.3660-55 region. A combination of factors pushed the US dollar to the highest level since August 20, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that exerted heavy pressure on the major. The US Treasury bond yields prolonged the recent runaway rally amid prospects for an early policy tightening by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the Fed hinted last week that it will begin rolling back the massive pandemic-era stimulus as soon as November. Moreover, the dot plot indicated policymakers inclination to raise rates in 2022. The upward pressure on the US bond yields continued acting as a tailwind for the buck. Apart from this, the risk-off impulse in the markets further boosted the greenback's relative safe-haven status. Worries about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis, along with the intensifying energy crisis in Europe and China took its toll on the risk sentiment. Meanwhile, worries about supply bottlenecks in the United Kingdown weighed on the British pound and further contributed to the GBP/USD pair's sharp intraday decline to the lowest level since July 21. That said, extremely oversold RSI on the 1-hour chart warrants some caution for aggressive traders and before positioning for any further depreciating move. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This will be accompanied by the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment will influence the USD, allowing traders to grab some short-term opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD loses ground for the third consecutive session so far on Tuesday and records fresh September lows near 1.1670. Extra losses appear likely in t

EUR/USD loses the grip further and clinches new monthly lows.Further downside faces the next support near 1.1660.EUR/USD loses ground for the third consecutive session so far on Tuesday and records fresh September lows near 1.1670. Extra losses appear likely in the short-term horizon, with the immediate target at the 2021 low at 1.1663 (August 20). A deeper pullback should expose the September 2020 low at 1.1612 followed by the November 2020 low in the 1.1600 neighbourhood. In the meantime, the near-term outlook for EUR/USD is seen on the negative side while below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1972. EUR/USD daily chart  

Mexico Jobless Rate below expectations (4.4%) in August: Actual (4.3%)

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains at 4.1% in August

DXY pushes higher and trades closer to the YTD highs past the 93.70 level. Further upside faces immediate hurdle at the 2021 top at 93.72 while the br

DXY picks up further pace and challenges 2021 highs.The surpass of 2021 peaks should expose 94.00.DXY pushes higher and trades closer to the YTD highs past the 93.70 level. Further upside faces immediate hurdle at the 2021 top at 93.72 while the breakout of this level should put the round level at 94.00 on the radar ahead of the November 2020 high at 94.30. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, the constructive stance on the dollar is seen unchanged while above the 200-day SMA, today at 91.51. DXY daily chart  

The intraday selling around the sterling picked up pace in the last hour and dragged the GBP/JPY cross to fresh daily lows, around the 151.65 region.

GBP/JPY witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround from two-week tops on Tuesday.The sterling was weighed down by stronger USD and increasing fuel crisis in the UK.The risk-off impulse benefitted the safe-haven JPY  and contributed to the selling bias.The intraday selling around the sterling picked up pace in the last hour and dragged the GBP/JPY cross to fresh daily lows, around the 151.65 region. The cross struggled to capitalize on its intraday positive move to two-week tops, instead witnessed a turnaround and has now retreated nearly 100 pips from levels just above mid-152.00s. The downfall was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of heavy selling around the British pound and the risk-off impulse in the markets. A broad-based US dollar strength, along with signs of the fuel crisis in the United Kingdom turned out to be a key factor that acted as a headwind for the GBP. Fears that a driver shortage – that caused problems for a range of industries in the recent months – would hit fuel supply led to panic buying and long queues at many petrol stations. Meanwhile, the intensifying energy crisis in Europe and China – amid soaring gas and oil prices – and persistent about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis took its toll on the risk sentiment. This was evident from a weaker tone around the equity markets, which benefitted the Japanese yen's relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart. With the latest leg down, the GBP/JPY cross has now reversed a part of the previous day's positive move. A subsequent slide below the 151.35-30 horizontal support will shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. The next relevant support is pegged near the 151.00 mark, which if broken decisively should pave the way for further losses. Technical levels to watch  

The upside momentum in EUR/JPY gathers further traction and reclaims the key hurdle at 130.00 the figure on Tuesday. The cross flirts with the short-t

EUR/JPY extends the rally and finally surpassed the 130.00 mark.Next on the upside comes September highs around 130.80.The upside momentum in EUR/JPY gathers further traction and reclaims the key hurdle at 130.00 the figure on Tuesday. The cross flirts with the short-term resistance line (off June’s high) around 130.00 and the surpass of this area should expose the monthly highs in the 130.80 zone, coincident with the 100-day SMA. Above the 200-day SMA at 129.65 the outlook for the cross is expected to return to the constructive side. EUR/JPY daily chart  

Gold is off the lows but remains vulnerable amid the underlying narrative the Fed could announce a sooner-than-expected rate hike, as the TIPS market

Gold price remains vulnerable as markets cheer Fed rate hike prospects.Treasury yields retreat but the upside momentum still remains intact. Gold remains vulnerable amid hawkish Fed outlook.Gold is off the lows but remains vulnerable amid the underlying narrative the Fed could announce a sooner-than-expected rate hike, as the TIPS market has also started pricing in higher future inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rallied to the highest levels in three-months at 1.55%, as Fed officials noted that they see tapering close. The US dollar has tagged higher alongside yields, exerting additional downward pressure on gold price. Read: Gold Price Forecast: Focus remains on yields as XAU/USD eyes a pennant breakoutGold Price: Key levels to watch According to the Technical Confluences Detector, gold faced rejection at strong resistance around $1743, which is the confluence of the pivot point one-day S1 and Fibonacci 38.2% one-month. If the abovementioned hurdle is cleared, then gold bulls will look to test the previous day low of $1745. Further up, gold buyers will need a lot of conviction to take out a bunch of key resistance levels stacked up around $1750. At that level, the SMA10 four-hour, Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week coincide. The next relevant upside target is seen at the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at $1754. On the flip side, immediate support awaits at $1734, the Bollinger Band one-day Lower.   If the selling pressure intensifies then a test of the pivot point one-week S1 at $1730 remains inevitable. Minor support at $1727, the pivot point one-day S3 will come into play. Gold bulls will then look forward to temporary respite near $1724, where pivot point one-month S1 lies. Here is how it looks on the tool About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.    

The USD/CHF pair maintained its bid tone through the first half of the European session, albeit has retreated few pips from over one-week tops touched

USD/CHF gained traction for the third successive day amid a broad-based USD strength.Surging US bond yields continued acting as a tailwind for the USD and remained supportive.The risk-off impulse benefitted the safe-haven CHF and capped the upside for the major.The USD/CHF pair maintained its bid tone through the first half of the European session, albeit has retreated few pips from over one-week tops touched earlier this Tuesday. The pair was last seen trading around the 0.9275-80 region, still up nearly 0.25% for the day. The pair built on last week's rebound from the 0.9215 support area and gained some follow-through traction for the third successive day. This also marked the fourth day of a positive move in the previous five and was sponsored by a broad-based US dollar strength, bolstered by surging US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to the highest level since June 17 amid prospects for an early policy tightening by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the Fed hinted that it would begin tapering bond purchases. Moreover, the dot plot showed policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. The supporting factor, to some extent, was offset by the risk-off impulse in the markets, which underpinned the safe-haven Swiss franc and capped gains for the USD/CHF pair. Investors remain worried about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis. This, along with intensifying energy crisis took its toll on the risk sentiment. The USD/CHF pair, so far, has struggled to move back above the 0.9300 mark, making it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further gains. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 0.9330-35 region, or multi-month tops touched last week, which should act as a pivotal point for short-term traders. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This, along with the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the US bond yields, will influence the USD. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment could provide some impetus to the USD/CHF pair. Technical levels to watch  

United Kingdom 30-y Bond Auction increased to 1.332% from previous 0.972%

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY): 6% (August) vs 5.2%

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) up to 3.5% in August from previous -1.7%

The NZD/USD pair continued losing ground through the first half of the European session and dropped to one-month lows, around the 0.6965 region in the

A combination of factors prompted aggressive selling around NZD/USD on Tuesday.Surging US bond yields pushed the USD to over one-month tops and exerted pressure.The risk-off impulse collaborated to drive flows away from the perceived riskier kiwi.The NZD/USD pair continued losing ground through the first half of the European session and dropped to one-month lows, around the 0.6965 region in the last hour. Following the previous day's brief pause, the NZD/USD pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and resumed its recent retracement slide from monthly tops, around the 0.7170 region. The downward trajectory was exclusively sponsored by a broad-based US dollar strength, bolstered by surging US Treasury bond yields and the risk-off impulse in the markets. The US bond yields have been scaling higher after the Fed last week hinted that it will soon taper its asset purchases. Moreover, the so-called dot plot showed policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. The repricing of the likely timing of the Fed's policy tightening pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to the highest level since June 17. Apart from this, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment further benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status and drove flows away from the perceived riskier kiwi. Investors remain worried about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis. This, along with intensifying energy crisis in Europe and China – amid soaring gas and oil prices – weighed on investors' sentiment. The ongoing downfall could further be attributed to some technical selling on a sustained break below the key 0.7000 psychological mark. A subsequent slide below the previous monthly swing lows, around the 0.6980 region, might have already set the stage for further losses. Hence, some follow-through weakness, towards the 0.6935-30 support area, remains a distinct possibility. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This, along with the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics. Traders would further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment for some short-term opportunities around the NZD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann suggests the Bank of Thailand would leave the policy rate unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Key Quotes “While

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann suggests the Bank of Thailand would leave the policy rate unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Key Quotes “While we keep to our call for BOT to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% for the whole of 2021, the absence of uniformity amongst policy members (given 2 dissenters who voted for a rate cut) suggests that BOT a rate cut cannot be entirely ruled out, should macroeconomic fundamentals worsen into 2H21.”  

PBOC: China will lengthen the time for implementation of normal monetary policy more to come ...

PBOC: China will lengthen the time for implementation of normal monetary policy  more to come ...

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the inflation forecast justifies kee

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the inflation forecast justifies keeping loose central bank’s policy. “There is no doubt that inflation will be below 2% target in 2023,” he added.

GBP/USD has been under pressure as China grapples with power outages. In the view of FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam, the dual energy crisis is set to f

GBP/USD has been under pressure as China grapples with power outages. In the view of FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam, the dual energy crisis is set to fuel further falls. See – GBP/USD: There is some room for sterling outperformance over the near-term – HSBC Worries about energy are set to keep the pressure on GBP/USD “UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has instructed the army to prepare for delivering gasoline to petrol stations as a shortage of lorry drivers has already caused dry ups in several places. Brexit resulted in fewer EU nationals delivering goods on Britain's roads and temporarily reversing policies should help alleviate pressures. In the meantime, sterling suffers.”  “The bigger crisis for the world comes from China. Growing global demand and a shortage in coal resulted in power outages in the highly industrialized northeast. Factories may fail to deliver goods on time and stall the global recovery from the pandemic. That boosts the safe-haven dollar.”  “The greenback is benefiting from rising US yields. Returns on 10-year Treasury yields jumped above 1.50% on Monday, making the dollar more attractive. The move began after the Federal Reserve signaled it would taper bond buys last week.”   

A strong pickup in the USD demand dragged the GBP/USD pair to fresh daily lows, around the 1.3660 region during the first half of the European session

GBP/USD came under fresh selling pressure on Tuesday amid a broad-based USD strength.Surging US bond yields, the risk-off impulse lifted the safe-haven USD to over one-month tops.The lack of a strong follow-through selling warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders.A strong pickup in the USD demand dragged the GBP/USD pair to fresh daily lows, around the 1.3660 region during the first half of the European session. Following a modest uptick to the 1.3715 area, the GBP/USD pair witnessed some fresh selling on Tuesday and reversed the previous day's modest gains amid a broad-based US dollar strength. The ongoing upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields pushed the USD Index to the highest level since August 20. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the major. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to the highest level since June 17 amid prospects for an early policy tightening by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the Fed last week hinted that it will soon begin rolling back its massive pandemic-era stimulus. Adding to this, the so-called dot plot showed policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. The market expectations were reinforced by the overnight comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. Apart from this, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment – amid persistent worries about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis – further benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status. On the other hand, the British pound was pressured by increasing signs of the fuel crisis in the United Kingdom. Fears that a driver shortage would hit fuel supply led to panic buying and long queues at many petrol stations. The UK is estimated to be short of more than 100,000 lorry drivers, which caused problems for a range of industries in recent months. Despite the negative factors, the GBP/USD pair, so far, has managed to hold its neck just above the overnight swing lows. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before positioning for any further depreciating move. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the UK, the USD price dynamics will influence the intraday momentum. Later during the early North American session, investors will take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This, along with the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand and produce some trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

USD/JPY is off the two-month highs of 111.43, although holds well above the 111.00 level, as investors look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testi

USD/JPY pulls back amid the return of risk-off trades, as dual-energy crisis intensifies.US dollar retreats with Treasury yields, hawkish Fedspeak still underpin. The pair at the mercy of the dynamics in yields, risk trends ahead of Powell.USD/JPY is off the two-month highs of 111.43, although holds well above the 111.00 level, as investors look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony for fresh trading insights. The pullback in the spot comes in the wake of a turnaround in the risk sentiment, as the European stocks take a hit amid intensifying energy crisis in the Euro area and China. Soaring gas and oil prices have triggered an energy crisis in Europe, with governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut. On the other hand, China struggles with power outages. The worsening market mood has revived the demand for the US Treasuries, checking the surge in the Treasury yields across the curve. Meanwhile, the yen found some support from the Japanese’s PM Yoshihide Suga’s confirmation of an end of the state of emergency measures on September 30.   Earlier on, USD/JPY rallied hard, tracking the relentless rise in the US yields amid Fed’s hawkish shift, with markets now pricing in a sooner-than-expected rate lift-off. The latest hawkish comments from the Fed’s policymakers also lent support to the yields. The surge in the US rates, prompted a fresh advance in the US dollar, supporting the gains in the major. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped to three-month highs of 1.55% before retreating to 1.53%, where it now wavers. Looking ahead, the broader market sentiment and the dynamics in the yields will continue to have a significant impact on USD/JPY. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 111.27, still adding 0.27% on the day. USD/JPY: Additional levels to consider  

The USD/CAD pair reversed an early European session dip to over two-week lows and rallied over 50 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through.

USD/CAD staged a modest intraday recovery amid a broad-based USD strength.Surging US bond yields, a cautious market mood underpinned the safe-haven USD.Bullish oil prices acted as a tailwind for the loonie and might cap gains for the pair.The USD/CAD pair reversed an early European session dip to over two-week lows and rallied over 50 pips in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through. The pair was last seen trading around mid-1.2600s, up nearly 0.15% for the day. The pair showed some resilience below the 1.2600 mark and witnessed an intraday short-covering move on the back of a broad-based US dollar strength, bolstered by surging US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to the highest level since June 17 amid prospects for an early policy tightening by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the Fed last week indicated that it will soon begin rolling back its massive pandemic-era stimulus. Moreover, the so-called dot plot showed policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. Adding to this, several FOMC members expressed comfort with the first phase of policy tightening and underpinned the USD. Apart from this, a turnaround in the risk sentiment – amid persistent worries about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis – further benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status. However, an extension of the recent bullish run in oil prices acted as a tailwind for the commodity-linked loonie and might cap the upside for the USD/CAD pair. Market participants now look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This, along with the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and the US bond yields, will influence the greenback. Apart from this, oil price dynamics could provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD nears the August low of 1.1664. Defending this level is crucial for rebound, economists at Société Générale report. August low at 1.1664 guard

EUR/USD nears the August low of 1.1664. Defending this level is crucial for rebound, economists at Société Générale report. August low at 1.1664 guards the 1.1610 level  “EUR/USD is approaching the low formed in August at 1.1660. Defending this can result in a bounce, however, multi month trend line near 1.1800 must be reclaimed for an extended bounce.”  “Next downside projections are located near 1.1610.”  

USD/JPY trades within touching distance of the July high at 111.66. Economists at Société Générale expects the pair to extend its uptrend towards the

USD/JPY trades within touching distance of the July high at 111.66. Economists at Société Générale expects the pair to extend its uptrend towards the 112.23/112.40 region. Test of 111.70 looks on the cards  “Defending 110.45, it could attempt a rebound towards 111.70 and 2020 high of 112.23/112.40.” “The main downside risk to USD/JPY is another run of negative news from China (PMIs, Evergrande) and contagion to global risk assets.”  

EUR/USD has dropped to fresh weekly lows near 1.1670. A break below the 1.1664 August low would introduce scope to the 200-week ma at 1.1576, Karen Jo

EUR/USD has dropped to fresh weekly lows near 1.1670. A break below the 1.1664 August low would introduce scope to the 200-week ma at 1.1576, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports. EUR/USD stays directly offered below 1.1823 “EUR/USD remains directly offered below 1.1750 and attention remains on the 1.1664 August low. This guards the 200-week ma at 1.1575 and the previous downtrend nowat 1.1424.” “Intraday rallies are indicated to fail ahead of 1.1750/73, but key nearby resistance is the 1.1823 three-month downtrend.”  

Japanese stocks have rebounded to 30-year highs and became the world’s best performers in September and the third quarter. In the view of economists a

Japanese stocks have rebounded to 30-year highs and became the world’s best performers in September and the third quarter. In the view of economists at Charles Schwab, the performance momentum could continue with the reopening of the nation’s capital reinvigorating economic growth, the strong upward trend in revisions to analysts’ earnings estimates for Japanese companies, lower relative valuations and a historically bullish pre-election period. The State of Emergency will soon be lifted, invigorating economic growth “Japan’s economy is expected to accelerate to a robust 3.8% pace of growth in the fourth quarter from 1.6% in the third, according to the Bloomberg-tracked consensus of economists’ forecasts.” Japan’s companies have the best upward earnings revisions trend of all major countries  “There are currently 1.93 upward revisions for every downward revision, well ahead of the 1.42 in the US. This is a sharp contrast to a year ago when analysts gave Japanese firms only 0.79 upward revisions for each downward revision and gave US companies more than 2 upward revisions for each downward revision.” History suggests that Japanese stocks are likely to perform solidly heading into and following the elections “Looking back at elections over the past 20 years, Japan’s stock market posted a 6% gain on average in the six weeks leading up to the election (the only exception being 2000s ‘tech wreck’ bear market). Following those elections, stocks posted solid gains on average over the following 6 months.” Valuations for Japan’s stocks are much lower than peers on an absolute and relative basis “While price-to-earnings ratios for the US and other markets around the world remain near 10-year highs, potentially limiting gains, Japan’s stocks are priced near average historical levels.”  

Sellers remain well in control of the sentiment around the shared currency and drags EUR/USD to fresh weekly lows near 1.1670 on turnaround Tuesday. E

EUR/USD loses further momentum near 1.1670 on Tuesday.Chairwoman Lagarde will speak later at the forum in Sintra.Chief Powell will testify before the Senate later in the NA session.Sellers remain well in control of the sentiment around the shared currency and drags EUR/USD to fresh weekly lows near 1.1670 on turnaround Tuesday. EUR/USD now looks to 2021 lows EUR/USD remains well on the defensive on Tuesday, accelerates losses to the 1.1670 region and threatens to challenge the so far 2021 low at 1.1663 (August 20). The solid performance of the greenback was recently sponsored by Fed-speakers, while the intense move higher in US yields collaborated with the upside momentum in the currency. In the meantime, investors will pay attention to the annual ECB Forum on Central Banking “Beyond the pandemic: the future of monetary policy” in Sintra (Portugal), which kicks in later today with the speech by Chairwoman C.Lagarde seconded by Board members De Guindos, Panetta, Schnabel. In addition, ECB member Fernandez-Bollo will participate in a debate on banking supervision in the EU and UK in Brussels. In the domestic docket, the German GfK’s Consumer Confidence improved to 0.3 in October (from -1.1). In France, the same indicator rose to 102 in September. Across the pond, Powell’s testimony will take centre stage seconded by speeches by FOMC’s Bowman and Bostic. In the calendar, the FAFH Index is due followed by the S&PP/Case-Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Index. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD remains fragile and already flirts with YTD lows, always on the back of solid dollar dynamics amidst the persevering selloff in the bonds markets. Higher yields remain the almost exclusive driver behind the improvement in the buck particularly now that the Committee sees higher rates in 2022 and the QE tapering process kicking in “soon”. In the euro region, the loss of momentum in the recovery, as per some weakness seen in key fundamentals, continues to undermine the mood around the shared currency.Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Forum in Sintra, Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech (Tuesday) – ECB Forum in Sintra, final Consumer Confidence, ECB’s Lagarde speech (Wednesday) – German labour market report, German September flash inflation figures (Thursday) – German Retail Sales, final August PMIs, EMU preliminary inflation figures (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and pace of the vaccination campaign. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. Investors’ shift to European equities in the wake of the pandemic could lend extra oxygen to the single currency. ECB tapering speculations. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is losing 0.08% at 1.1686 and faces the next up barrier at 1.1755 (weekly high Sep.22) seconded by 1.1782 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.1845 (weekly high Sep.14). On the other hand, a break below 1.1672 (monthly low Sep.28) would target 1.1663 (2021 low Aug.20) en route to 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4 2020).

Austria Purchasing Manager Index up to 62.8 in September from previous 61.8

The Bank of England MPC voted to keep rates on hold, with two members voting for an early end to QE but rates could rise even before the end of the QE

The Bank of England MPC voted to keep rates on hold, with two members voting for an early end to QE but rates could rise even before the end of the QE programme, according to its statement. All this should suggest some room for near-term GBP outperformance, albeit with long-term caution, in the view of economists at HSBC. See – GBP/USD: Modest sterling appreciation favored – ANZ GBP to grind weaker against the USD over time “The details of the BoE policy decision, i.e., the vote on QE and the commentary around when rate hikes might start, were somewhat more hawkish than expected and suggest some room for near-term GBP outperformance.” “Interest rate expectations have already moved forward in recent months, with hikes now implied for Q1 next year. This should support the GBP for now, and any signs that these expectations might be pulled further forward would be even more bullish.” “We would still temper long-term optimism on the GBP. The BoE commentary suggests neutral rates may be nearer to 1%. Contrast this with the Federal Reserve, for example, the 2024 median interest rate projection is 1.75%. This should act as an impediment to lasting GBP strength.” “The UK faces significant and ongoing supply-side pressures regarding gas supply, labour supply, and various logistics issues. These increased costs and burdens on UK competitiveness point to long-term fair value for the GBP drifting lower over time.”  

The Australian dollar’s price action in recent weeks has highlighted the precarious state of global growth and regional asset markets. Nevertheless, e

The Australian dollar’s price action in recent weeks has highlighted the precarious state of global growth and regional asset markets. Nevertheless, economists at ANZ maintain their year-end AUD/USD of 0.75.  Rates markets to provide a modest boost to the aussie “We think the RBA will be cautious, even as the economy rebounds. Labour market slack and undershooting wage growth will hold the RBA back relative to peers. On balance however, with the worst behind us, we look for rates markets to provide a modest boost to the aussie.”   “China's domestic policy will continue to affect the AUD, as property deleveraging and sectoral adjustments weigh on industrial commodity prices.” “Stabilising growth and strong seasonal effects are likely to be marginally offset by tighter liquidity, leading to a range-bound currency and slightly higher volatility. We maintain our AUD/USD year-end forecast of 0.75.”  

The AUD/USD pair dropped nearly 50 pips during the early European session and refreshed daily lows, around the 0.7265 region in the last hour. The pai

AUD/USD struggled to capitalize/preserve its modest gains to levels beyond the 0.7300 mark.Surging US bond yields pushed the USD to fresh one-month tops and prompted fresh selling.A cautious mood further weighed on the perceived riskier aussie and contributed to the slide.The AUD/USD pair dropped nearly 50 pips during the early European session and refreshed daily lows, around the 0.7265 region in the last hour. The pair continued with its struggle to find acceptance above the 0.7300 mark and once again witnessed a turnaround from the vicinity of the 0.7315-20 resistance zone on Tuesday. The US dollar tracked a sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields and shot to the highest level since August 20. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that acted as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair, instead prompted fresh selling at higher levels. The US bond yields have been scaling higher after the Fed last week hinted that it will soon taper its asset purchases. Moreover, the so-called dot plot showed policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. The repricing of the likely timing of the Fed's policy tightening pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to the highest level since June 17 and continued underpinning the greenback. Apart from this, worries about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis weighed on investors' sentiment. This was evident from a cautious mood around the equity markets, which further benefitted the safe-haven greenback and drove flows away from the perceived riskier aussie. Despite the pullback, the AUD/USD pair, so far, has managed to hold within a multi-day-old trading range, warranting caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the recent pullback from the 0.7475-80 region, or monthly tops touched on September 3. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday, leaving the AUD/USD pair at the mercy of the USD. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment could also provide some impetus. Later during the early North American session, traders will take cues from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD is holding over key support at 1.3567/78. Initial resistance is seen at the 1.3726/34 area with a stubborn barrier awaiting at the 1.3893/1.39

GBP/USD is holding over key support at 1.3567/78. Initial resistance is seen at the 1.3726/34 area with a stubborn barrier awaiting at the 1.3893/1.3914 one-month highs, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports. See – GBP/USD: Modest sterling appreciation favored – ANZ Break below 1.3571 2021 low to portray a big break down point “GBP/USD is holding near-term over the 1.3557/78 July low, February low and long-term Fibo, which suggests a reluctance to break down at this stage.” “Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.3726/34 8th September low. Stronger resistance is found at one-month highs at 1.3893/1.3914. We have no strong bias.” “The 1.3571/57 low is key and a break below here would represent a big break down point and would target the 1.3504 January 2009 low and introduce scope to the 200-week ma at 1.3161.”  

GBP/NZD’s advance from last December’s 1.8524 lows has been exhausted at a recent 2.0075 peak. Technical indicators flag a semblance of stability, whi

GBP/NZD’s advance from last December’s 1.8524 lows has been exhausted at a recent 2.0075 peak. Technical indicators flag a semblance of stability, which may see GBP/NZD ranging within a broad 1.9277-1.9758, Benjamin Wong, Strategist at DBS Bank, reports. GBP/NZD does not exhibit any signs of larger than normal moves for now “A quick glance at the MACD indicator shows the tilt rests towards buying dips, where there is liberal support in the 1.9277-1.9189 pane.” “On the weekly Ichimoku charts, the technical indicator is showing a semblance of stability, akin to a similar setup that had transpired at the prior 1.8524 lows. Cloud analysis suggests range hemming, with 1.9758 and 1.9277 as outer boundaries as the cross hovering above the 200-day moving average (DMA) of 1.9454.” “Within its larger time frame, GBP/NZD’s recent range lethargy can be explained that it is in the midst of finding a fresh bias.”  

Sweden Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 5.4% to 6.6% in August

Sweden Retail Sales (MoM): 0.7% (August) vs -1.2%

Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) declined to -10.3B in August from previous 7.1B

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/CNH is still seen trading between 6.4359 and 6.4880 for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD tr

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/CNH is still seen trading between 6.4359 and 6.4880 for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 6.4540 and 6.4691 yesterday, narrower than our expected consolidation range of 6.4520/6.4700. The quiet price actions offer no fresh clues and further consolidation appears likely. Expected range for today, 6.4530/6.4730.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Friday (24 Sep, spot at 6.4610). As highlighted, USD is still in a consolidation phase and could trade between 6.4350 and 6.4880 for a period of time.”

EUR/USD is clinging to 1.17. Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, lays out three reasons to expect a fall below support at 1.1660 after dead-cat bounce

EUR/USD is clinging to 1.17. Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, lays out three reasons to expect a fall below support at 1.1660 after dead-cat bounce. Energy crisis “Shortages of natural gas in Europe may derail the old continent's recovery from the pandemic. That undermines the euro. China is also grappling with electricity shortfalls. Reports about power outages in the Chinese economy may derail global growth and push the safe-haven dollar higher.”  Debt ceiling “Senate Republicans have blocked legislation that would allow the US government to continue functioning. This threat is, for now, shrugged off by markets. However, the mood could turn swiftly and boost the greenback.” Bearish technicals “Critical support awaits at last month's low, which comes out at 1.1660. Below 1.1660, the next level to watch is 1.1610 and then 1.15. Looking up, resistance awaits at 1.1725, followed by 1.1760 and 1.1790 – all levels that capped EUR/USD attempts to recover.”  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rivals, keeps its march north unchanged and already trades in new month

DXY pushes higher and clinched fresh tops near 93.60.Yields of the US 10-year note hover around the 1.50% area.Consumer Confidence, Powell next of note in the calendar.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main rivals, keeps its march north unchanged and already trades in new monthly highs around 93.60 on turnaround Tuesday. US Dollar Index focused on yields, data The index advances for the third session in a row on Tuesday and already trades at shouting distance from YTD highs in the 93.70/75 band (August 20). Supportive Fedspeak on Monday in combination of the sharp move higher in US yields lent fresh oxygen to the buck and kept the recovery in the index well and sound for yet another session. Indeed, yields of the US 10-year note rose to new 3-month peaks above the key 1.50% yardstick and look to stabilize around that area so far on Tuesday. Looking at the shorter end of the curve, yields of the 2-year UST climbed to levels last seen in April 2020 just below 0.30%. Very interesting US calendar on Tuesday will show the always relevant Consumer Confidence gauge measured by the Conference Board seconded by Chairman Powell’s testimony on “Coronavirus and CARES Act” before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. In addition, house prices tracked by the FHFA is due followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, advanced Trade Balance results and speeches by FOMC M.Bowman (permanent voter, centrist) and Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (voter, centrist). What to look for around USD The index manages to advance further and trades in fresh September highs near 93.60 and now targets the YTD peaks near 93.70. The improved mood in the buck follows the unexpected hawkish message from Chief Powell, prospects for an interest rate hike by end of 2022 and the sharp move higher in US yields. Positive results from US fundamentals coupled with alleviating concerns regarding the progress of the Delta variant should also add to the constructive view of the dollar in the near/medium term.Key events in the US this week: Advanced Goods Trade Balance, CB Consumer Confidence, Powell’s Testimony (Tuesday) – Powell’s speech (Wednesday) – Final Q2 GDP, Initial Claims (Thursday) – PCE, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Personal Income/Spending, final Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s multi-trillion plan to support infrastructure and families. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. Debt ceiling debate. Geopolitical risks stemming from Afghanistan. US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is gaining 0.20% at 93.59 and a break above 93.61 (monthly high Sep.28) would open the door to 93.72 (2021 high Aug.20) and then 94.30 (monthly high Nov.4 2020). On the flip side, the next down barrier emerges at 92.98 (weekly low Sep.23) seconded by 92.75 (55-day SMA) and finally 91.94 (monthly Sep.3).  

Government bond yields rose last week as central banks signal that policy may be tightened faster than previously anticipated. But while economists at

Government bond yields rose last week as central banks signal that policy may be tightened faster than previously anticipated. But while economists at UBS expect the rise in yields to go further, they do not see this becoming disruptive or halting the equity rally. Modestly higher rates look likely to impact relative sector performance “Even if the 10-year yield rises to 1.8% by the end of 2021, and to 2% in subsequent months, the equity risk premium – which indicates the relative appeal of stocks versus bonds – will still leave equities looking attractive, all else equal.  “Rather than ending the equity rally, we expect the rise in yields to favor cyclical sectors such as financials and energy over growth sectors such as technology, which experience a bigger drag on the present value of future cash flows from higher rates.” “While policy will tighten at a different pace around the world, we expect top central banks to remain broadly accommodative and only tighten as output gaps narrow and employment conditions improve. Against this backdrop, we expect cyclical parts of the market to outperform, including energy, financials, and Japanese stocks.”  

USD/JPY has risen back above the 111.00-level for the first time since early July. As US yields continue to rise, the pair is set to hit year highs at

USD/JPY has risen back above the 111.00-level for the first time since early July. As US yields continue to rise, the pair is set to hit year highs at 111.66, in the view of economists at MUFG Bank. USD/JPY strongly correlated to US yields “USD/JPY moved within touching distance of the year to date high of 111.66 from 2nd July. The next key resistance levels beyond are located at around the 112.00 and 114.00-levels.”  “Recent price action suggests that our view that there is only limited room for further yen weakness is likely to be tested. We continue to view the yen as already deeply undervalued which should help reduce scope for further weakness.” “Our correlation analysis confirms that USD/JPY has the strongest correlations to both short-term and long-term US yields. The 30-day correlation between daily % changes in USD/JPY and the 2-year UST yield is currently at 0.71. A similar but weaker pattern is also evident for G10 FX correlations with the 10- year UST yield. USD/JPY clearly has the strongest correlation at 0.58. Upward pressure on US yields should continue to provide a lift for USD/JPY in the near-term.”   

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told C News TV on Tuesday that higher energy costs will likely last for a few more months Additional quotes Gov

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told C News TV on Tuesday that higher energy costs will likely last for a few more months Additional quotes Government is well aware of problems caused by higher energy costs. This sharp rise in energy costs is unacceptable for our companies. Simultaneously, the French government Spokesman AttaL said that they are “working on further measures to tackle the sharp rise in energy costs.”   more to come ...

Strategists at DBS Bank raise their oil price forecasts for next few quarters as the winter months could see higher oil demand owing to the switch fro

Strategists at DBS Bank raise their oil price forecasts for next few quarters as the winter months could see higher oil demand owing to the switch from gas for heating purposes. Oil markets looking well beyond China concerns “Considering the higher gas prices and potential oil demand boost of 0.5- 1.0mmbpd in the near-term from fuel switching requirements, we revise up our oil price forecasts for the next few quarters. Thus, our 2021 average Brent crude oil price forecast now stands at $67-72/bbl (vs. $65- 70/bbl earlier) and our 2022 Brent crude oil average price forecast is raised to $70-75/bbl (vs. $67-72/bbl earlier).” “China oil imports will likely be weaker than expected in 2H21, owing to the Delta variant outbreak-related lockdowns and Evergrande contagion, but the oil market remains well supported by demand from other parts of the world, with global oil inventories well below five-year average levels and persistently falling month-on-month.” “Supply side poses limited concerns as internal disagreements within OPEC have been sorted out, and hurricane-linked supply outages from the US Gulf of Mexico provides further support in the near-term.”  

GBP/USD is holding onto 1.37. Economists at ANZ Bank remain constructive on sterling’s prospects against the USD. BoE to begin to raise interest rates

GBP/USD is holding onto 1.37. Economists at ANZ Bank remain constructive on sterling’s prospects against the USD. BoE to begin to raise interest rates next year “Since the EU referendum in June 2016, trends in GBP/USD have been closely correlated with both business confidence and trends in UK inflation. Both are rising and embody an assessment of future growth dynamics and monetary policy bias.” “On a relative growth basis, the UK’s vaccination rate (66.7%) compares favourably with the US’s (55.4%), indicating the potential for greater resilience in economic activity given the spread of Delta.” “As the economy recovers to pre-pandemic levels of GDP and closes the output gap, we think it will be appropriate for the BoE to begin to raise interest rates next year.” “Given the GBP’s undervaluation versus the USD, we continue to favour moderate sterling appreciation.”  

EUR/USD is falling for the third day in a row, pressuring the pivot support near 1.1683, as the bears remain relentless amid the ongoing rally in the

EUR/USD extends a three-day downtrend amid a relentless rise in US yields.Fed’s hawkish shift and optimism on the economy, lift yields with the USD. Impending bear cross points to a breach of the critical support at 1.1683.EUR/USD is falling for the third day in a row, pressuring the pivot support near 1.1683, as the bears remain relentless amid the ongoing rally in the US Treasury yields. The Fed’s hawkish shift last week combined with the central bank’s policymakers calling for tapering sooner-than-expected boosts the yields alongside the US dollar. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 1.52% at the highest levels seen since June 28. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde left doors open for higher inflation while adding that there is "every reason to believe" that the rebound in energy prices and supply bottlenecks would ease next year. In the day ahead, the main currency pair will remain at the mercy of the dynamics in the yields and the dollar, as investors await Lagarde and Powell to grab the spotlight for the second straight day on Tuesday. Looking at EUR/USD’s daily chart, the price is testing the critical rising trendline support at 1.1683, with a daily candlestick closing below the latter needed to validate a downside breakout. Immediate support is seen at 1.1664, the August lows, below which the 1.1650 psychological level will come into play. Further south, the 1.1600 level could challenge the bullish commitments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing south below the midline, backing the case for additional weakness in the spot. EUR/USD: Daily chart Alternatively, recapturing of the 1.1700 is critical to initiate a tepid recovery towards the range highs around 1.1750. But an impending bear cross on the said time frame, suggesting that investors should resort to ‘sell the bounce’ strategy amid the recent downside momentum. The 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is on the verge of cutting the 50-DMA from above, flashing a bearish signal. EUR/USD: Additional levels to consider  

USD/CHF trades higher on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the pair is set to remain capped by its downtrend at 0.9330, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Anal

USD/CHF trades higher on Tuesday. Nonetheless, the pair is set to remain capped by its downtrend at 0.9330, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports. Negative bias below 0.9330, the 2019-2021 downtrend “USD/CHF remains bid near term but will shortly encounter the 2019-2020 downtrend at 0.9330 and recent high at 0.9333, where ideally it will again fail.” “The market will have to head below the 55-day ma at 0.9174 to alleviate immediate upside pressure.”  “Good support remains at the 0.9100 mid-August low and the 200-day ma at 0.9104 and this guards the 2021 uptrend at 0.9053.”  

The GBP/USD pair surrendered modest intraday gains and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, around the 1.3700 mark during the early Europea

GBP/USD witnessed a subdued/range-bound price action through the early European session.The continuous surge in the US bond yields underpinned the USD and acted as a headwind.The downside remains cushioned, warranting some caution for aggressive bearish traders.The GBP/USD pair surrendered modest intraday gains and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, around the 1.3700 mark during the early European session. The pair continued with its struggle to find acceptance or build on the momentum beyond the 1.3700 mark and quickly retreated around 20 pips from the daily swing highs touched in the last hour. The US dollar continued drawing support from surging US Treasury bond yields and shot to over one-month tops on Tuesday. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that acted as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. The US Treasury bond yields have been moving higher after the Fed hinted that it may soon taper its asset purchases and the dot plot showed policymakers' inclination to raise interest rates in 2022. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot to the highest level since June 17, around 1.544% during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday and underpinned the greenback. Meanwhile, persistent worries about China Evergrande Group's unsolved debt crisis weighed on investors' sentiment and kept a lid on the optimism. This was evident from a cautious mood around the equity markets, which further benefitted the safe-haven USD. That said, the lack of any strong selling warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful slide for the GBP/USD pair, at least for now. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Tuesday, either from the UK or the US, leaving the GBP/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Later during the early North American session, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee might influence the greenback and produce some short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Strategists at Natixis fear that 2022 will be a worse year for global growth than is widely thought. Weaker-than-expected global growth in 2022 would

Strategists at Natixis fear that 2022 will be a worse year for global growth than is widely thought. Weaker-than-expected global growth in 2022 would reinforce the downturn in commodity prices and the decline in inflation.  See  Fed: The environment may not be very conducive to tapering in late 2021 and 2022 – Natixis Weak growth in China “China’s growth should be expected to be weak due to population ageing, caution among consumers (due to the combination of population ageing and a weak social welfare system), weak corporate investment in capital goods and new technologies under the effect of overindebtedness and political risk, the weakening of construction due to macroprudential measures and difficulties among developers, the high level of debt, which amplifies any growth slowdown.”  Shift to a more restrictive fiscal policy “Governments in many countries want to reduce their fiscal deficits sharply in 2022. The planned fiscal deficit reduction in 2022 is much greater than that which would spontaneously result from growth, which means that in 2022 there will be a significant reduction in the structural fiscal deficit, particularly in the US. The more restrictive fiscal policy in 2022 will definitely have a negative effect on growth.” Caution among consumers  “In China, consumers are cautious probably due to the prospect of population ageing in a country with a weak social welfare system, as we have seen. Consumers in OECD countries are also cautious, as the household savings rate remains higher than its pre-crisis level. Even though consumption is vigorous, there is no catch-up: the forced savings accumulated during the crisis are not being consumed.” What consequences if global growth in 2022 is weaker than currently expected? “This would cause a downturn in commodity prices and reduce supply chain bottlenecks and contribute to driving down inflation.”  

France Consumer Confidence came in at 102, above forecasts (100) in September

USD/JPY has broken up from its three-month range. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to enjoy co

USD/JPY has broken up from its three-month range. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to enjoy considerable gains. USD/JPY targets 112.23/50 “USD/JPY has broken up from its three-month range. We will simply go with it and look for a test of the July high at 111.66.”  “The July high at 111.66 guards the more important 112.23/50 zone, which represents highs since 2019. This may take a couple of attempts to clear, but above here will introduce scope to 114.55 the October 2018 high.”  “Dips lower are indicated to hold in the 110.60/30 bracket.”  

AUD/JPY refreshes daily gains near 81.30 on Tuesday extending the previous session’s gains. The pair touched the intraday low near 80.65 only to trave

AUD/JPY continues to march higher on Tuesday in the early European trading hour.The cross-currency pair reaches a strong resistance area near 81.30.MACD indicates further upside remains intact.AUD/JPY refreshes daily gains near 81.30 on Tuesday extending the previous session’s gains. The pair touched the intraday low near 80.65 only to travel back to the intraday high of 81.31, where it currently hovers.  AUD/JPY daily chart Technically speaking, after testing the lows of 78.85 for two consecutive sessions on September 21 and 22 the pair continued to march higher for the past week. Currently a break of the bearish sloping line from the high of 81.99 made on September 7 would confirm the continuation of the upside momentum further till the high made on September 8 at 81.64. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reads just near the midline. Any uptick in the MACD would amplify the buying pressure toward the 82.00 horizontal resistance level followed by the level last seen in July at 82.33 (July 15). Alternatively, on the lower side, the first downside target could appear at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 80.52. A daily close below the mentioned level would invite a low made on Friday at 80.00. Next, AUD/JPY bears would attempt to retest the 79.50 horizontal support level. AUD/JPY techncial levels
 

In an interview on Tuesday, Masatsugu Asakawa, the President of Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that Evergrande is unlikely to trigger a global cris

In an interview on Tuesday, Masatsugu Asakawa, the President of Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that Evergrande is unlikely to trigger a global crisis but must watch out for its impact on China’s regional govt finances, household consumption. Additional quotes Must be vigilant to the risk of expected Fed policy normalization triggering an outflow of funds from emerging economies. Once economies emerge from pandemic, they must shift away from expansionary fiscal policy. China's banking system has sufficient buffers to absorb any shock from Evergrande. PBOC is providing ample liquidity, authorities showing readiness to contain any spillover from Evergrande. Evergrande may be facing liquidity strains but holds ample assets in its balance sheet. Related readsChina Evergrande Update: PBOC vows ‘healthy’ property marketUSD/CNH prints six-day downtrend as PBOC battles China, Evergrande pessimism

EUR/GBP holds lower ground near 0.8530 as European traders brace for Tuesday’s session. The cross-currency pair keeps downside break of Thursday’s low

EUR/GBP remains depressed around intraday low, keeps Monday’s bearish move.100-SMA teases seller-supportive cross to the 200-SMA amid bearish MACD favor.Seven-week-old rising support line in focus ahead of monthly low.EUR/GBP holds lower ground near 0.8530 as European traders brace for Tuesday’s session. The cross-currency pair keeps downside break of Thursday’s low as MACD flashes bearish signals. Also favoring the sellers is the 100-SMA inching closer to print a bearish cross to the 20-SMA, which if justified will bolster the pair sellers’ strength. Hence, the EUR/GBP prices may initially aim for an ascending support line from August 10, near 0.8520 but a break of which will clarify the SMA bearish cross and drag the quote towards the monthly low of 0.8500. Should the pair remains depressed below the 0.8500 round figure, 0.8485 and the last month’s low near 0.8450 will be in focus. Meanwhile, recovery moves will immediately be challenged by Thursday’s low near 0.8535 before the SMA convergence close to 0.8560 gains the market’s attention. Above all, double-top marked during the month around 0.8615 will be a tough nut to crack for the EUR/GBP bulls. EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Gold is alternating between gains and losses so far this Tuesday amid a recovery in the risk sentiment. Focus remains on yields as XAU/USD eyes a penn

Gold is alternating between gains and losses so far this Tuesday amid a recovery in the risk sentiment. Focus remains on yields as XAU/USD eyes a pennant breakout, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. Gold is teasing a pennant breakout on the 4H chart “Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on the CARES act, Evergrande updates and the dynamics in the Treasury yields will play out, impacting gold price action.” “As observed on the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is wavering in a pennant formation, with a breakout expected in either direction in the session ahead. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still lurking below the midline, the odds of a downside breakout from the pennant look higher.” “A powerful resistance awaits at $1754, which could emerge as a tough nut to crack for gold bulls. Acceptance above the latter is needed to rekindle a fresh upswing towards the 50-SMA at $1759. The next relevant upside target is seen at the September 23 highs of $1777.” “Gold sellers look to challenge the rising trendline (pennant) support at $1747. A sustained break below the latter will validate the pennant breakdown, opening floors for a retest of the six-week troughs of $1738, below which the falling trendline support at $1735 would be put to test.”  

The uptrend in USD/JPY could extend to the 111.80 region in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “W

The uptrend in USD/JPY could extend to the 111.80 region in the short-term horizon, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘further USD strength is not ruled but overbought conditions indicate that a break of 111.00 is unlikely’. While our view for USD to strengthen was not wrong, USD took out the 111.00 resistance (high of 111.06). Conditions remain deeply overbought but only a break of 110.65 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. Until there is a break of 110.65, USD could edge higher but any advance is likely limited to a test of the major resistance at 111.20.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We turned positive USD last Friday (24 Sep, spot at 110.30) but we did not anticipate the rapid pace of the subsequent advance. In our update from yesterday (Sep 27, spot at 110.70), we held the view that the ‘USD strength could extend to 111.00 with lower odds for extension 111.20’. USD subsequently rose above 111.00 (high of 111.06). Conditions are deeply overbought and while a USD could move above 111.20, it is left to be seen if it can extend its gains to the August’s high near 111.80 (there is a minor resistance at 111.50). Overall, only a break of 110.30 (‘strong support’ level was at 109.95 yesterday) would indicate that the rapid rally over the past couple of days is ready to take a breather.”

Norway Retail Sales down to -3.8% in August from previous -3.1%

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey came in at 0.3, above expectations (-1.8) in October

Open interest in natural gas futures markets went down for the second session in a row at the beginning of the week, now by 4.5K contracts in light of

Open interest in natural gas futures markets went down for the second session in a row at the beginning of the week, now by 4.5K contracts in light of preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume, instead, extended the choppy performance and rose by around 246.7K contracts. Natural Gas now targets… the sky? Prices of natural gas climbed to levels last seen in February 2014 well past the $6.00 mark per MMBtu. Monday’s uptick was amidst rising open interest which is indicative that further gains remain on the cards for the time being. The immediate target on the upside now comes at the 2013 highs near $6.50 per MMBtu.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 28: Markets are looking to rise after retreating amid rising yields and energy issues. The dollar

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 28: Markets are looking to rise after retreating amid rising yields and energy issues. The dollar is losing some ground ahead of Fed Chair Powell's testimony. Energy shortages are gaining more traction while cryptocurrencies retreat amid regulation talk.  US 10-year Treasury yields have dropped below 1.50% after several days of rises. The upward move is related to the Federal Reserve's taper signal last week and prospects of rising inflation, as reflected in energy prices. At the time of writing, the drop in returns on US debt allows the dollar to take a breather from its gains.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify before Congress on Tuesday. In his already released prepared remarks, Powell stresses he would act against sustained inflation and that higher prices and hiring shortages could be more sustained than anticipated. On the other hand, he sees ongoing strong growth. Powell is set to stress that ending bond buys does not imply imminent rate hikes, echoing comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Their colleagues Michelle Bowman and Raphael Bostic are slated to speak later in the day. Fed resignations: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will step down in the next few days after revelations of active trading around the bank's decisions. Kaplan stood out as a hawk and his departure could tilt the Fed toward a dovish stance.Energy issues: China is struggling with cuts to power supplies in several regions, threatening to slow down the economy. Coal and other fuels used to create electricity are hard to come by. In the UK, the army has been put on standby in case it is needed to fil petrol stations, amid a dearth of lorry drivers.Soaring natural gas prices in Britain and Europe is weighing on sentiment. WTI Crude Oil is trading above $75 while Brent has topped $80.  The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence gauge for September is set to edge higher. It is essential to note that August's falls in sentiment did not result in lower spending by consumers.  Conference Board Consumer Confidence Preview: Unhappy but still spending On Monday, the US reported better-than-expected Durable Goods Orders statistics for August, with the headline shooting higher by 1.8%.  Durable Goods Orders rise despite falling consumer sentiment, supply shortagesEUR/USD is clinging to 1.17 as the dollar softens and ahead of a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. On Monday, Lagarde rehashed her position that inflationary pressures would ease. GBP/USD is holding onto 1.37 after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey repeated his position that interest rates could rise before the bond-buying scheme concludes. Debt ceiling: Senate Republicans blocked legislation that would fund the US government. Investors continue shrugging off chances of a US default on its debt, as such debacles were resolved in the past. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin is changing hands below $43,000, Ethereum under $3,000 and ADA is pressured at around $2.15. Concerns about regulation have been cited as the driver behind the most recent decline. 

USD/CAD remains pressured around a multi-day low near 1.2600, down 0.21% intraday ahead of Tuesday’s European session. Stronger prices of Canada’s key

USD/CAD consolidates losses around intraday low, prints six-day downtrend.Risk appetite improves amid receding fears over Evergrande.Hopes of pre-pandemic energy demand propel WTI oil prices towards yearly peak.Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, US data eyed amid a lack of major catalysts at homeUSD/CAD remains pressured around a multi-day low near 1.2600, down 0.21% intraday ahead of Tuesday’s European session. Stronger prices of Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil, join the US dollar’s failures to cheer firmer Treasury yields to weigh on the USD/CAD around the lowest since September 10. In doing so, the quote attacks a short-term key support line from late June, near 1.2570. WTI benefits from hopes that the economic transition from the pandemic will recall the pre-covid energy demand. In this regard, the oil giant British Petroleum (BP) says, “Global oil consumption is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 2022, with Asia continuing as the center for oil-product demand growth.” On a different page, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) heavy liquidity injection, recently by 100 billion yuan, battles economic fears related to Beijing and Evergrande. However, a lack of clarity over the US stimulus and debt limit extension challenges the market sentiment, keeping the US dollar afloat despite hesitant moves surrounding the yearly peak. Amid these plays, US Treasury yields a fresh three-month high while the stock futures also reverse early Asian losses by the press time. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains indecisive, around 93.40 at the latest. Given the lack of major factors to watch from Canada, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and chatters over China, as well as Evergrande, will be important to watch. Also important to watch is the monthly print of the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence figures for August. Read: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Preview: Unhappy but still spending Technical analysis USD/CAD justifies bearish MACD as well as sustained trading below a one-month-old horizontal hurdle, around 1.2700, as sellers brace for an ascending support line from early June, near 1.2570.  

Asian stocks continue to perform under pressure amid mixed concerns on China’s Evergrande default risk, interest rate hike signals from major central

Asian stocks show mixed trend on Tuesday tracking Wall Street price action.China’ Evergrande debt-ridden default risk, major central bank’s views on interest rate, rising commodity prices keeps traders buzzy.Beijing Authorities remain strict on corruption allegations amid big corporations with top 25 financial institutions under their lens.Asian stocks continue to perform under pressure amid mixed concerns on China’s Evergrande default risk, interest rate hike signals from major central banks, and the concerns of the Delta variant of the coronavirus risk. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-pacific shares outside Japan declined 0.13% following a mixed session on Wall Street. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.45% on Tuesday. Traders remained optimistic after the PBoC said that the central bank will protect consumers exposed to the housing market. China’s property giant has 30 days to fulfill its payment commitments before it falls into default category and Shenzhen authorities are now investigating the company’s wealth management unit. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.44%. The ASX 200 lost 0.63% amid growing concerns about the pace of the recovery in the region due to the rising coronavirus cases. Australia’s two biggest cities, Sydney and Melbourne are still under lockdown. New South Wales recorded 863 fresh cases on Monday. The Retail sales dropped by 1.7% in August, recording the third straight month fall. WTI traded above $ 76.00 with 0.95% gains amid tighter supply and recovering demand in many parts of the world.

NZD/USD is still seen navigating within the 0.6975-0.7100 range for the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “N

NZD/USD is still seen navigating within the 0.6975-0.7100 range for the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD traded between 0.6990 and 0.7032 yesterday before closing little changed at 0.7015 (-0.02%). The underlying tone has weakened somewhat and NZD could drift lower but any decline is not expected to break the major support at 0.6975 (0.6990 is already quite a strong support level). Resistance is at 0.7020 followed by 0.7035.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We continue to hold the same view as from yesterday (27 Sep, spot at 0.7020). As highlighted, the outlook for NZD is mixed and it is likely to trade between 0.6975 and 0.7100 for a period of time.”

Open interest in crude oil prices went up for the four consecutive session on Monday, this time by around 15.4K contracts considering flash data from

Open interest in crude oil prices went up for the four consecutive session on Monday, this time by around 15.4K contracts considering flash data from CME Group. Volume followed suit and rose by around 210K contracts, reversing the previous daily pullback. WTI now targets $80.00/bblWTI extended the rally on Monday amidst rising open interest and volume and now trades at shouting distance from 2021 highs just below $77.00 (July 6). Against this, the commodity is expected to advance further in the very near term and now targets the key $80.00 mark per barrel, level last traded back in November 2014.

Gold (XAU/USD) stays sidelined around $1,750, recently picking up bids to $1,751 ahead of Tuesday’s European session. The yellow metal has been range-

Gold picks up bids inside short-term trading range below short-term SMA, trend line resistance.Market sentiment dwindles as PBOC battles Evergrande woes, Fedspeak favor tapering.Economic recovery hopes linger in Asia but the West stays optimistic.Gold Price Forecast: Bulls not interestedGold (XAU/USD) stays sidelined around $1,750, recently picking up bids to $1,751 ahead of Tuesday’s European session. The yellow metal has been range-bound since the week start as traders struggle for clear direction mixed catalysts. On the positive side, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) battles the Evergrande woes and keeps the market players hopeful of overcoming the threat to the world’s second-largest economy. The hopes of US stimulus and chatters over removing the virus-led activity restrictions also underpin the risk-on mood, favoring gold prices. Furthermore, central banks from Eurozone and the US are optimistic as well, which in turn favor the market sentiment. However, anxiety over the US debt limit extension before the October 01 expiry and economic fears emanating from China question the optimists. Recently, the World Bank hints at the slower economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific. On the same line were pessimism surrounding China’s power cut and Brexit woes, not to forget firmer US Treasury yields that keep the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the front foot and weigh on the gold prices. Hence, traders mixed concerns ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and ECB President Lagarde’s additional comments keep gold traders clueless. Also important is the monthly print of the US Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence figures for August. Above all, risk catalysts are more important, especially from China. Read: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Preview: Unhappy but still spending Technical analysis Gold fades bounce off seven-week-old horizontal support, flashing a bearish Doji candlestick the previous day. Also keeping the sellers hopeful is the commodity’s trading below 10-DMA and a descending resistance line from September 03, respectively around $1,760 and $1,773. Additionally challenging the gold buyers is a horizontal line from late August surrounding $1,780. Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated nearby support of $1,738 needs validation from August 10 low surrounding $1,717 to recall the gold bears targeting the $1,700 threshold, a well as the yearly bottom of $1,687. Gold: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Cable remains in a consolidative mode within the 1.3650-1.3810 range for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

Cable remains in a consolidative mode within the 1.3650-1.3810 range for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘there is room for GBP to dip below 1.3650 but a sustained decline below this level is unlikely’. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.3661 before rebounding to 1.3729 during NY session. Momentum indicators are turning ‘neutral’ and GBP is likely to consolidate for today, expected to be between 1.3665 and 1.3740.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative from last Friday (24 Sep, spot at 1.3730) still stands. As highlighted, GBP is in a consolidation phase and is likely to trade between 1.3650 and 1.3810 for a period of time. While the underlying tone has weakened a tad, a sustained decline in GBP is likely only if it closes below 1.3610. At this stage, the odds for GBP to close below 1.3610 are not high.”

CME Group’s advanced figures for gold futures markets noted open interest shrank for the second session in a row on Monday, this time by around 1.4K c

CME Group’s advanced figures for gold futures markets noted open interest shrank for the second session in a row on Monday, this time by around 1.4K contracts. In the same line, volume went down for the second consecutive session, now by nearly 12K contracts. Gold remains supported by $1,740Gold prices charted an inconclusive session at the beginning of the week against the backdrop of shrinking open interest and volume. That said, there is scope for the continuation of the rangebound theme in the very near term and always supported by the $1,740 region for the time being.

The GBP/USD pair prints mild gains on Tuesday morning after testing the high of 1.3728 in the overnight session. The pair retreated to 1.3700 followin

GBP/USD consolidates gains on Tuesday in the early European trading hour.US Dollar Index stays strong near 93.50 ahead of Powell testimony.Mixed cues amid BOE rate hike signal, Brexit concern, higher gas prices keeps sterling gains under check. The GBP/USD pair prints mild gains on Tuesday morning after testing the high of 1.3728 in the overnight session. The pair retreated to 1.3700 following the comments from the policymakers of the UK and US central banks.  At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.3707, up 0.07% on the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades, which tracks the performance of the greenback against its six major rivals, remains buoyant above 92.40 as investors digested hawkish Fed while worries over China’s economic recovery lingers. In addition to that, the US Durable Goods Orders jumped 1.8% in August much above the market consensus of a 0.7% increase. The US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.50%, the highest since June 26 on the expectation that Fed would start tightening monetary policy soon, despite slower growth and higher inflation forecast for the year. Furthermore, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Jenet Yellen would appear before the US Senate’s Banking Committee to discuss Cares( the Coronavirus Aid,Relief,and Economy Security) Act oversight. Powell said in his remarks higher prices, hiring troubles could be sustained for longer than expected but considered them transitory. On the other hand, the British pound gained following the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey speech to the Society of professional Economists, he warned that interest rate hike could come sooner than expected despite exisitng quantitative easing. Nevertheless, all the gains evaporated on the lingering Brexit concerns. In the latest development French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune said that the current energy crisis in Britain reflected the “ intellectual fraud” that was Brexit. As for now, traders keep their focus on the release of the US Goods Trade Balance, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price, and CB Consumer Confidence data to gain some fresh trading impetus. GBP/USD additional levels  

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could slip back to the 1.1630 level on a breach of 1.1680 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view:

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD could slip back to the 1.1630 level on a breach of 1.1680 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectations for EUR to ‘trade between 1.1700 and 1.1745’ yesterday was incorrect as it dropped to 1.1683 before rebounding to close at 1.1694 (-0.17%). Downward momentum has improved, albeit not by much. From here, there is room for EUR to dip below 1.1680 but it may not be able to maintain a foothold below this level (next support is at 1.1662). On the upside, a break of 1.1725 (minor resistance is at 1.1710) would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (24 Sep, spot at 1.1745), we highlighted that the recent weak phase in EUR has ended and we expected EUR to trade between 1.1700 and 1.1800. EUR took out 1.1700 yesterday (27 Sep) and dropped to 1.1683. Downward momentum is showing tentative signs of building and a daily closing below 1.1680 would indicate that EUR could break August’s low at 1.1662 and head towards 1.1630. The prospect for EUR to close below 1.1680 is quite high and would increase further as long as EUR does not move above 1.1745 (‘strong resistance’ level) within these few days.”

USD/JPY remains on the front foot around 111.20, the fresh high since early July, during the pre-European session trading on Tuesday. In doing so, the

USD/JPY prints five-day uptrend, stays firmer beyond bi-annual horizontal trend line.Sustained trading beyond key DMA confluence, bullish MACD favor buyers inside six-month-old rising channel.USD/JPY remains on the front foot around 111.20, the fresh high since early July, during the pre-European session trading on Tuesday. In doing so, the yen pair justifies an upside clearance of a horizontal line from late March, as well as successful trading above a convergence of the 50-DMA and 100-DMA. Given the bullish MACD favors the advances, the USD/JPY prices are on the way to a yearly peak of 111.65. However, overbought RSI may challenge the bulls afterward, if not then an upper line of the six-month-old rising channel, near 112.30, will be the key hurdle. On the flip side, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support around 110.80 will drag the quote towards the stated DMA confluence close to 109.90. Also acting as important support is the multi-day-old channel’s support near 109.20. USD/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Bullish  

EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.1690 heading into Tuesday’s European session open. In doing so, the major currency pair struggles around a short-ter

EUR/USD consolidates early Asian losses, rebounds from short-term key support.Market sentiment improves amid hopes over US stimulus, China’s Evergrande.US Treasury yields refresh three-month top, favoring US dollar bulls.Fed tapering concerns, ECB’s optimism stay on the table but PBOC’s hopes of overcoming real-estate woes in focus.EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.1690 heading into Tuesday’s European session open. In doing so, the major currency pair struggles around a short-term key hurdle to the yearly bottom amid mixed clues. The Fed tapering chatters renew after Chairman Jerome Powell, in his prepared remains for today’s testimony, cited inflation and employment concerns to say, “We would certainly respond and use our tools to ensure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with our goal." On the other hand, uncertainty over the US infrastructure spending bill and the Democrats’ inability to pass a bill pushing back the debt limit expiry underpin the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. Also challenging the market sentiment, as well as favoring the USD, are the World Bank comments signaling economic fears for Asia-Pacific, including China. Alternatively, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) battles the Evergrande woes and keeps the market players hopeful of overcoming the threat to the world’s second-largest economy. Elsewhere, the German elections portrayed a political limbo and hence investors are expecting further easy money to form a strong coalition government. “After Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) narrowly defeated the ruling Christian Democratic bloc (CDU/CSU) in Sunday’s election, both parties will woo the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) to form a coalition,” said Reuters. It’s worth noting that the US Durable Goods Orders came in firmer for August while the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde tamed reflation fears during her latest speech. Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields refresh multi-day top, up 2.2 basis points (bps) around 1.51% by the press time, while the S&P 500 Futures reverse the early Asian session losses at the latest. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints a three-day uptrend but mixed concerns ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and ECB President Lagarde’s additional comments keep EUR/USD bears cautious. Also important is the monthly Consumer Confidence figures from the Conference Board. Read: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Preview: Unhappy but still spending Technical analysisEUR/USD bears take a breather around a one-week-old horizontal support zone near 1.1685-80 following its pullback from a monthly resistance line and 10-DMA, currently around 1.1730. However, bearish MACD signals and double-top formation around 1.1910 keep the pair sellers hopeful to refresh the yearly low bottom, currently around 1.1665.  

AUD/USD extends the previous session’s gains on Tuesday despite dismal Australia Retail sales data. The pair opened lower but recovered swiftly to tou

AUD/USD prints fresh daily gains on Tuesday in the Asian trading hour.Additional gains for pair if price breaks the psychological 0.7300 mark.Consolidation near 0.7300 offers resistance for the bulls.AUD/USD extends the previous session’s gains on Tuesday despite dismal Australia Retail sales data. The pair opened lower but recovered swiftly to touch the intraday high of 0.7307. At the time of writing,  AUD/USD is trading at 0.7302, up 0.25% for the day. AUD/USD daily chart Technically speaking, AUD/USD has come under selling pressure after testing the high of 0.7478 at the beginning of September series (September 3). The price took shelter near the 0.7220 with multiple bottom formations. Now, if price breaks the descending trendline from the mentioned high level, it could meet the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7325 as the first upside target. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trades below the midline with a bullish crossover. Any uptick in the MACD would open the gates for the high made on September 14 at 0.7374 followed by the 0.7400 horizontal resistance level. Alternatively, if price reverses direction, then it could retrace back to the previous day’s low of 0.7249. AUD/USD bears would then march toward the 0.7220 horizontal support level.  A daily close below the mentioned level could trigger a fresh round of selling toward the 0.7150 horizontal support level. AUD/USD additional levels  

WTI takes the bids to refresh multi-day high near $75.98, up 0.95% to print a six-day uptrend during early Tuesday. In doing so, the oil benchmark aim

WTI prints six-day uptrend to refresh the three-month high.PBOC optimism, US stimulus chatters underpin oil buying amid softer USD.Chatters over oil demand returning to pre-pandemic levels add to the upside momentum.China headlines, Fedspeak and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock in focus for fresh impulse.WTI takes the bids to refresh multi-day high near $75.98, up 0.95% to print a six-day uptrend during early Tuesday. In doing so, the oil benchmark aims for the yearly high of $76.40 as upbeat market sentiment joins hopes of further energy demand. Market sentiment takes clues from China as the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC)  heavy liquidity injection, recently by 100 billion yuan, battles economic fears related to Beijing and Evergrande. The Shenzen government investigates the wealth management unit of Evergrande and urged to repay investors. Furthermore, challenges to the world’s second-largest economy, emanating from power cuts adds to the fears for the pair sellers of late. The same backs Goldman Sachs to cut China's 2021 GDP growth forecast while the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) hints at a new threat to the chip shortage, namely power cuts in Beijing. Following that, the World Bank said, per Reuters, “Economic recovery in east Asia and Pacific faces a setback,” while revising down China’s GDP to 8.5% for 2021. Furthermore, China's Industrial Profits eased to 10.1% YoY versus 16.4% expected in August. Alternatively, US Fed policymakers have been optimistic of late and seek tapering while those from Asia-Pacific also eyes economic recovery, suggesting further energy demand. The same help the oil giant British Petroleum (BP) to say, “Global oil consumption is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 2022, with Asia continuing as the center for oil-product demand growth.” The key energy firm also adds that Oil demand in 2022 is expected to see an average gain of 3.8 million bpd y/y, easing from a growth of 5.4 million barrels bpd in 2021. It’s worth noting that the risk-on mood can be witnessed by S&P 500 Futures reversing the early Asian losses as well as the run-up of the US Treasury yields to a three-month high. Moving on, the weekly industry stockpile data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), prior -6.108M, will be watched with updates over China and oil demand for fresh impulse. Technical analysis A clear upside break of late July tops near $73.90, coupled with a clear cross of the 18-day-old resistance line around $75.30, enables WTI bulls to pierce the yearly peak of $76.40 while targeting the October 2018 high of $76.80.  

Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso is making some comments on the country’s inflation outlook while appreciating the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) measures to

Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso is making some comments on the country’s inflation outlook while appreciating the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) measures to ramp up price pressures. Key quotes Doubts pent up demand will surge after the state of emergency is lifted Appreciate the Bank of Japan efforts to push inflation higher Aware of opinions that monetary policy alone limited in accelerating inflation. Joint efforts are needed between monetary and fiscal policies to boost inflation.

New Zealand’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson released draft legislation on Tuesday, which will disallow property investors to deduct mortgage intere

New Zealand’s Finance Minister Grant Robertson released draft legislation on Tuesday, which will disallow property investors to deduct mortgage interest from their taxable incomes. This is another measure from New Zealand’s government aimed to cool a red-hot housing market. "The detailed proposals we are releasing today will further level the playing field for existing homes in favour of first home buyers,” Robertson noted.

USD/CNH stays offered for the sixth consecutive day, down 0.05% intraday near $6.4565 during early Tuesday. In doing so, the offshore China Yuan (CNH)

USD/CNH takes offers to refresh intraday low, extends previous week pullback from monthly high.China Industrial Profits ease, World Bank cuts GDP forecasts.PBOC keeps pumping the money flow, Shenzen assesses Evergrande.Risk catalysts keep the driver’s seat, Fed Chair Powell will be eyed as well.USD/CNH stays offered for the sixth consecutive day, down 0.05% intraday near $6.4565 during early Tuesday. In doing so, the offshore China Yuan (CNH) pair manages to cheer the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) optimism over successfully taming the Evergrande saga, despite multiple negatives from home and abroad. Starting with the economics, China's Industrial Profits eased to 10.1% YoY versus 16.4% expected in August. Also challenging the USD/CNH bears are the fears over Evergrande as the Shenzen government investigates the wealth management unit of Evergrande and urged to repay investors. Furthermore, challenges to the world’s second-largest economy, emanating from power cuts adds to the fears for the pair sellers of late. The same help Goldman Sachs to cut China's 2021 GDP growth forecast while the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) hints at a new threat to the chip shortage, namely power cuts in Beijing. Following that, the World Bank said, per Reuters, “Economic recovery in east Asia and Pacific faces a setback,” while revising down China’s GDP to 8.5% for 2021. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers’ support for tapering and uncertainty over the US debt limits and stimulus issues also weigh on the market sentiment, underpinning the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. Above all, the PBOC’s heavy liquidity injection, recently by 100 billion yuan, keeps the USD/CNH bears hopeful of overcoming the crisis at home. It’s worth noting that the risk barometers, namely the stock futures and AUD/USD remain on the back foot while the US 10-year Treasury yields poke a three-month top marked the previous day at the latest. Looking forward, the PBOC has a tough task to defy the grim concerns for China's economic growth, failing to do so will highlight the Fed tapering chatters and can recall the USD/CNH bulls. Technical analysis Despite failures to cross a two-month-old resistance line, around $6.4835 by the press time, USD/CNH bears struggles to conquer the 100-DMA support near $6.4535 that holds the key to a monthly low surrounding $6.4245.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will try is best to safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and protect home buyers’ lawful righ

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will try is best to safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and protect home buyers’ lawful rights, Bloomberg reports key highlights from the central bank’s quarterly meeting held on Friday. Additional takeaways “Will step up efforts to coordinate monetary, fiscal, industrial policies and regulations to support the economy with finance and prevent risks. “ “Pledge to drive real lending rates lower. “    more to come ...

AUD/JPY bulls attack the key hurdle to the north around 80.90 during early Tuesday. The risk barometer pair recently rose on upbeat prints of the prel

AUD/JPY picks up bids towards intraday high, about to confirm a bullish chart pattern.Sustained trading beyond 200-SMA, bullish MACD signals favor buyers.AUD/JPY bulls attack the key hurdle to the north around 80.90 during early Tuesday. The risk barometer pair recently rose on upbeat prints of the preliminary Australia Retail Sales for August. However, a clear upside break of the 81.00 threshold becomes necessary for the pair buyers before heading towards the monthly high of 82.02, even if the quote manages to confirm the inverse head-and-shoulders bullish chart pattern. Even so, the September 10 peak surrounding 81.45 adds to the upside filters before the theoretical target surrounding July’s top near 84.20. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain less worrisome until staying above the 200-SMA level of 80.25. Also acting as the downside filter is the 80.00 psychological magnet. Should the AUD/JPY bears conquer the 80.00 round figure, a south-run towards the monthly low of 78.85 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the pair’s ability to stay beyond the key SMA joins bullish MACD signals to keep AUD/JPY buyers hopeful. AUD/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The Indian rupee remains stuck in familiar territory on the daily charts and the lack of follow-through leaves the downside vulnerable while the price

USD/INR bears moving in at critical weekly support.The daily chart is exhausted below the 74 psychological figure. The Indian rupee remains stuck in familiar territory on the daily charts and the lack of follow-through leaves the downside vulnerable while the price is below the psychological 74 figure. USD/INR daily chart As illustrated, the price has been moving sideways below the resistance and unable to get any wind beneath its sails for a number of consolidation days. This raises prospects of a downside correction that could fall into the hands of the bears from a weekly perspective. USD/INR weekly chart The bears could be encouraged at the 21-W EMA that has a confluence with the 61.8% ratio. The candlestick formations are also leaning bearish in the double dojis. 

AUD/USD stays on the back foot around 0.7270, down 0.20% intraday during early Tuesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair struggles to cheer positive data

AUD/USD stays on the bearish consolidation mode as preliminary Australia Retail Sales contrast China Industrial Profits.Australia Retail Sales recovered -1.7%, China Industrial Profits eased in August.Market sentiment dwindles amid mixed concerns over China, US stimulus and debt limits.Fed Chair Powell’s prepared remarks renew tapering concerns, actual testimony, risk catalysts eyed.AUD/USD stays on the back foot around 0.7270, down 0.20% intraday during early Tuesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair struggles to cheer positive data at home amid downbeat sentiment and softer economics from the largest customer China. The preliminary readings of Australia Retail Sales for August improved from -2.7% prior and -2.5% expected to -1.7%. However, China's Industrial Profits eased to 10.1% YoY versus 16.4% expected. In addition to mixed data from Australia and China, the sluggish mood in the market also contributes to the AUD/USD pair’s latest weakness. Goldman Sachs cuts China's GDP while the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) hints at a new threat to the chip shortage, namely power cuts in Beijing. Following that, the World Bank said, per Reuters, “Economic recovery in east Asia and Pacific faces a setback,” while revising down China’s GDP to 8.5% for 2021. On the same line were mixed concerns over US stimulus and debt-limit talks.  Although US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushed for swift address to the debt limit issue, the Senate’s failures to advance a measure to suspend the federal debt ceiling and avoid a partial government shutdown, per Reuters, question the market optimists. Following that, US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said that Democrats will take further action this week to avoid a government shutdown and debt default. Elsewhere, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi showed optimism to tackle the deadlock of the US infrastructure stimulus bill the previous day but hinted at a lesser figure than President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion push. Elsewhere, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s sustained push for tapering, per the prepared remarks for today’s testimony, also challenges the AUD/USD bulls. Alternatively, weakness in the covid numbers at home and optimism towards reaching the 80% double-jab target in Australia seems to challenge the AUD/USD sellers. On the same line were chatters over economic recovery from the pandemic in the West as well as the UK’s readiness to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). While portraying the mood, which has a linear relation with the AUD/USD prices due to its risk barometer status, S&P 500 Futures drops 0.22% intraday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields drop 0.5 basis points (bps) after refreshing the three-month high the previous day. Although the risk-off mood weighs on the AUD/USD prices, bears are cautious amid the US and Chinese policymakers’ concerns over tacking the issues on hand. Further, the covid updates have been positive as well and may recall the buyers should the US dollar eases on today’s Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. Technical analysis Given the bearish RSI divergence, contrasting the AUD/USD rebound, the 200-DMA level surrounding the 0.7300 threshold and an eight-day-old descending resistance line at 0.7305 becomes the key hurdle for the pair to cross to convince the bulls. Meanwhile, pullback moves may be challenged by the recent trading range support near 0.7220 and the 0.7200 round figure.  

Australia August Retail Sales are out which show the data when restrictions intensified across the major states over the period. Australia August Reta

Australia August Retail Sales are out which show the data when restrictions intensified across the major states over the period. Australia August Retail Sales Australia Retail Sales (MoM) Aug: -1.7% (est -2.5%, prev -2.7%). AUD/USD reaction Leading into the data, it was acknowledged that the price was pressuring a critical area of hourly support as follows:AUD/USD Price Analysis: Retail Sales risk ahead, bears testing 0.7270 key zoneThe data has supported the Aussie in this zone and there has been no follow-through to the downside as illustrated on the 5-min chart as follows: AUD/USD holds in 0.7271 and is down 0.22% on the day so far.  Why do Retail Sales matter to traders? The primary gauge of Australia’s consumer spending, the Retail Sales, is released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) about 35 days after the month ends. It accounts for approximately 80% of total retail turnover in the country and, therefore, has a significant bearing on inflation and GDP. This leading indicator has a direct correlation with inflation and the growth prospects, impacting the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rates decision and AUD valuation. The stats bureau uses the forward factor method, ensuring that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID-19 impacts.

Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) came in at -1.7%, above forecasts (-2.5%) in August

China's economy is projected to expand by 8.5% – World Bank more to come ...

China's economy is projected to expand by 8.5% – World Bank more to come ...

NZD/USD takes offers around 0.7000, down 0.25% intraday during early Tuesday. The kiwi pair fails to keep the previous day’s rebound amid risk-off moo

NZD/USD reverses Monday’s recovery moves, pressured around intraday low.NZ Government removes tax relief over housing loan interest to tame the real-estate prices.Risk appetite worsens amid uncertainty over US debt limit, stimulus and China’s Evergande.Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony, headlines over stimulus and China will be important for fresh impulse.NZD/USD takes offers around 0.7000, down 0.25% intraday during early Tuesday. The kiwi pair fails to keep the previous day’s rebound amid risk-off mood, also ignoring the New Zealand (NZ) government efforts to cool down the hot property prices. Reuters came out with the news from New Zealand stating, “The New Zealand government released draft legislation on Tuesday that seeks to disallow property investors to deduct mortgage interest from their taxable incomes, in its attempt to cool a red-hot housing market.” Rising property prices are the main challenge for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policymakers for which they’re ready to uplift the interest rate. Challenging the Kiwi pair’s moves is the uncertainty over the US debt limit extension and infrastructures spending bill. After the US Senate’s failures to advance a measure to suspend the federal debt ceiling and avoid a partial government shutdown, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushed for swift address to resolve the debt limit issue. On the same line were comments from US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer who said, per Reuters, “Democrats will take further action this week to avoid a government shutdown and debt default.” On Monday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi showed optimism to tackle the deadlock of the US infrastructure stimulus bill the previous day but hinted at a lesser figure than President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion push. It’s worth mentioning that prepared remarks of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for today’s testimony show the readiness of the US central banker to dial back the easy money and favored the US Dollar Index (DXY) earlier in Asia.  Also negative for the NZD/USD prices were China's GDP forecast cut by Goldman Sachs and World Bank. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures drop 0.20% while the US 10-year Treasury yields struggle around the three-month top. Given the lack of major data/events at home ahead of the next weeks’ RBNZ, NZD/USD traders will keep their eyes on the aforementioned catalysts for fresh impulse. Technical analysis While a 100-pips area between 0.6985 and 0.7085 restricts short-term NZD/USD moves, bulls are less likely to take entries below the 200-DMA level surrounding 0.7115.  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.4608 vs. the estimated at 6.4600. About the fix China maintains stric

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.4608 vs. the estimated at 6.4600. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.  

AUD/NZD prints fresh daily gains ahead of the Australian Retail Sales data on Tuesday. The pair touched the 1.0400 mark and immediately slids below fo

AUD/NZD turns slightly negative after it claims 1.0400 on Tuesday.Bulls remain hopeful above psychological 1.0400 mark .Momentum oscillator holds onto the overbought zone with bullish bias.AUD/NZD prints fresh daily gains ahead of the Australian Retail Sales data on Tuesday. The pair touched the 1.0400 mark and immediately slids below following the upside pressure there. At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0378, down 0.04% for the day. AUD/NZD daily chart On the daily chart, the AUD/NZD pair bucked up the prevailing short-term downside trend, which extends from the July 13 high at 1.0753. The consolidation in price began on September 13 and the cross-currency pair formed a rounding bottom technical pattern.  The descending trendline from the high of July 13 acts as a resistance for the bulls. If price breaks the bearish sloping line, it could move back to the 1.0450 horizontal resistance level, which also coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) . A daily close above the 50-day SMA could mean the continuation of upside momentum toward the 1.0500 horizontal resistance level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades in the oversold zone. Any uptick in the MACD would accelerate the buying pressure toward the high made on August 3 at 1.0592. Alternatively, if price moves lower, it could retest the 1.0350 horizontal support level followed by Friday’s low at 1.0305. Next, AUD/NZD bears would testify the low made on September 16 at 1.0278. AUD/NZD additional levels  

As per the prior analysis, EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears waiting to pounce to test daily support, the price has reached the first target forecasted in

EUR/USD bears have been in control on Tuesday and taking on critical support structures.The following illustrates the trading opportunities identified earlier in the day with positive outcomes. As per the prior analysis, EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears waiting to pounce to test daily support, the price has reached the first target forecasted in the article.  Prior analysis Prior live market updateAs seen, the price is drifting lower through that horizontal support and bears may wish to start to look for an optimal short entry point at this juncture. Prior 15-min trade setups ''As illustrated above, the price is now moving further lower which gives rise to a scalping opportunity as well as an intrasession trade set-up opportunity to target the daily support zone. The scalping stop loss is based above the 20 EMA and horizontal resistance, as well as the dynamic resistance. The intrasession stop loss is above the correction's highs. ''Live market update, target achieved The resistances held and the price melted to the downside as expected.  At this juncture, the bears will be taking profits and unless daily support gives at 1.1683 that could be all from the bears for now and until Europe comes online.  Those bears shorting for longer daily downside targets may already have their profits booked partially and moved position to breakeven. 

S&P 500 Futures take offers around 4,425, down 0.18% intraday during early Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer follows mixed catalysts to extend

S&P 500 Futures print mild losses, takes offers to refresh intraday low of late.Deadlock over US debt limit, stimulus join Powell’s readiness for tapering to challenge bulls.Shenzen government’s investigation of Evergrande assets contrasts PBOC-led optimism.Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, risk catalysts will be the key.S&P 500 Futures take offers around 4,425, down 0.18% intraday during early Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer follows mixed catalysts to extend Wall Street losses. Among the risk-negative headlines are related to the US debt limit extension and infrastructures spending bill. Earlier in Asia, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushed for swift address to the debt limit issue after the Senate’s failures to advance a measure to suspend the federal debt ceiling and avoid a partial government shutdown. However, US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said that Democrats will take further action this week to avoid a government shutdown and debt default. Furthermore, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi showed optimism to tackle the deadlock of the US infrastructure stimulus bill the previous day but hinted at a lesser figure than President Joe Biden’s $3.5 trillion push. On a different page, the prepared remarks of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for today’s testimony show the readiness of the US central banker to dial back the easy money amid heating inflation and employment recovery. Goldman Sachs cuts China's GDP while the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) hints at a new threat to the chip shortage, namely power cuts in Beijing. However, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) indirectly hinted at supporting the real-estate firm the previous day while supporting the view to keep liquidity reasonably ample. It should be noted that the Shenzen government analyzes Evergrande assets and recently urged the real-estate player to pay to investors. Elsewhere, Australia sounds optimistic over reaching the vaccination target of 80% while Japan is also up for removing the virus-led emergencies from Tokyo and 18 other prefectures. It’s worth noting that the US Durable Goods Orders came in better than forecast the previous day while the Fedspeak kept taper tantrums on the table, which in turn offered a mixed closing by the Wall Street benchmarks. Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields ease from the fresh three-month high of 1.50% to 1.48% by the press time. Looking forward, actual testimony by the Fed Chair Powell, speech from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and developments concerning the aforementioned issues should be watched for fresh impulse.

AUD/USD has started to test the W-formation's neckline in the build-up to the Retail Sales data that will be released within the coming hour. Should t

AUD/USD bears stepping in ahead of Retail Sales. Bears are seeking a downside daily extension to test below 0.72 the figure and beyond. AUD/USD has started to test the W-formation's neckline in the build-up to the Retail Sales data that will be released within the coming hour.  Should the neckline hold, there will be prospects of an upside continuation should the data surprise as more robust than forecast.  AUD/USD hourly chart As illustrated, the price has made a 50% mean reversion to the neckline of the formation. This would be expected to hold into the data today.  On a break of there, however, the downside will be in play.  AUD/USD daily chart From a daily perspective, following the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, the price is resisted below the 21-day moving average and bears will be looking for a downside extension of the daily bearish impulse.  The dynamic trendline support will first need to give and on a retest, bears could well be encouraged to move in.  The -272% Fibonacci retracement level of the correction comes in near 0.7190. Thereafter, 0.7160 will be pressured at the -61.8% that has a confluence with the 20 Aug highs. 

The USD/CHF pair consolidates gains after posting strong upside momentum in the US session. The pair hovers in a very narrow trade range of less than

USD/CHF trades modestly higher on Tuesday in the early Asian trading hours. The US Dollar Index remains strong above 93.40.The pair moves in the familiar range of 0.9250 and 0.9280 for the past few sessions.The USD/CHF pair consolidates gains after posting strong upside momentum in the US session. The pair hovers in a very narrow trade range of less than 10-pips following fresh daily gains near 0.9290 on Monday. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9257, down 0.01% for the day. The appreciative moves in the greenback keeps USD/CHF on the higher side. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, stays strong above 93.40. The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yields trades near 1.49% ahead of the US Fed Chair testimony.The US Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to talk about the “upside risk” to inflation as disruptions, hiring difficulties, and the continuation of other drivers of price pressures, but will continue to discard these pressures as transitory according to the remark prepared ahead of his testimony due Tuesday for the Senate banking Committee. In addition, the New York Fed President John Williams warned of the potential negative impact if the US government failed to solve its debt-ceiling issue. The US Congress approaches the September 30 deadline to avert the shutdown of government services in the context of the funding of government and to address the nation’s $28.4 trillion debt ceiling. Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren announced their retirement on October 8 and September 30 respectively. The move followed after the two came under scrutiny for investment trades. The move did little significant to the greenback. It is worth noting that, S&P 500 Futures is trading at 4,427.25, down 0.13%. On the other hand, the Swiss franc manages to gain some traction on its safe-haven appeal  as China's Evergrande debt-crisis continues to cloud market sentiment. As for now, traders wait for the US Goods Trade Balance August, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price, CB Consumer Confidence SEP, and Fed Chair Powell Testimony. USD/CHF additional levels  

Reuters has reported that the Japanese government will seek advisers' approval to lift all emergency curbs at the end of the month as the number of ne

Reuters has reported that the Japanese government will seek advisers' approval to lift all emergency curbs at the end of the month as the number of new coronavirus cases falls and the strain on the medical system eases, Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Tuesday. ''If approved by a panel of government advisers, Japan as a whole would be out of a state of emergency for the first time in nearly six months. Like many other countries, Japan had struggled to contain the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant - including through the Summer Olympic Games - keeping much of the country under emergency restrictions. But new daily cases steadily declined over the past month, to 2,129 on Sunday, while the number of severe cases also fell. About 56% of the population is fully vaccinated and the government has said all those who want the shot will have gotten one by November.'' There has been no reaction in the yen to the news.  USD/JPY touches multi-month high above 111.00 amid stronger USD

US Dollar Index (DXY) seesaws inside a 20-pip trading range above 93.30, recently edging higher around 93.45 amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so

DXY struggles to extend two-day uptrend near six-week-old horizontal hurdle.Weekly resistance line, August high challenge buyers amid steady RSI.A convergence of 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-SMA becomes the key support.US Dollar Index (DXY) seesaws inside a 20-pip trading range above 93.30, recently edging higher around 93.45 amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the greenback gauge dwindles after a two-day uptrend. The reason could be linked to the steady RSI and a horizontal area established from August 18, near 93.50. Also challenging the DXY bulls is a one-week-old rising trend line around 93.60, followed by August month’s high near 93.75. In a case where the US Dollar Index rallies past 93.75, the November 2020 peak of 94.30 will be in focus. Meanwhile, pullback moves will need to break a three-day-old support line near 93.30 to gain the market’s attention. Following that, a confluence of 50% Fibonacci retracement of late August to early September fall and 200-SMA, near 92.85, will be crucial to watch. DXY: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/JPY edges higher on Tuesday following the previous day’s gains. Higher US Treasury yields underpins the demand for the US dollar. Hawkish Fed mem

USD/JPY edges higher on Tuesday following the previous day’s gains.Higher US Treasury yields underpins the demand for the US dollar.Hawkish Fed members, reduced contagion Evergrande risk and general risk-on mood aids USD.USD/JPY refreshes daily highs above 111.00 on Tuesday extending the overnight gains. The pair composed of nearly 40-pips movement in the previous session fueled by the upside in the greenback. At the time of writing USD/JPY, is trading at 110.99, up 0.01% for the day. The US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.47% on Monday on the hawkish Fed’s members. New York Fed President John Williams warned on the debt ceiling issue, further he said that it was reasonable to expect tapering could be done by the middle of the next year. Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic discarded  long worrisome inflation concerns. In addition, the US Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell considered inflation concerns, hiring difficulties,and other drivers of price as transitory ahead of his testimony Tuesday for the Senate Banking Committee.
 
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against six major currencies, peaked above 93.40 following the remarks from Fed’s member and upbeat US Durable Goods Orders data. The readings came higher by 1.8% in August, much above the market forecast of 0.7% increase. Investors digested the Evergrande debt crisis and regulatory crackdown in China. As for now, traders are waiting for US Goods Trade Balance, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes to gauge market sentiment.  USD/JPY additional levels
 

GBP/JPY seesaws inside a 20-pips trading range above 152.00 after refreshing a fortnight high the previous day. The cross-currency pair offered a posi

GBP/JPY remains sidelined after rising to a two-week high.BOE’s Bailey teases rate hike despite growth worries and Brexit fears.Headlines over Evergrande, US stimulus and debt limits question market’s previously positive mood.BOJ Minutes, risk catalyst eyed for fresh impulse.GBP/JPY seesaws inside a 20-pips trading range above 152.00 after refreshing a fortnight high the previous day. The cross-currency pair offered a positive start to the week amid upbeat sentiment. Mainly driving the moves were chatters that the Japanese government is up for removing the virus-led activity controls in Tokyo and 18 other prefectures on the month-end deadline. Furthermore, easing fears over China’s Evergrande, amid the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) hints to keep monetary flow easy, joined US stimulus hopes to favor the GBP/JPY buyers. However, news that the US Senate Democrats fail to advance on measures to suspend the debt ceiling and extend government funding challenged the mood of late. On the same line were headlines from China suggesting that the Shenzen government is investigating the wealth management unit of Evergrande. Furthermore, tapering hints from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s sustained support for a rate hike before tapering, despite speaking of growth worries, also challenge the GBP/JPY buyers. It’s worth noting that news quoting Germany’s Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) Olaf Scholz, the man set to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor, per the news, while showing further hardships over the UK’s food and fuel crisis. “We worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the union. Now they decided different and I hope they will manage the problems coming from that,” said Scholz per the news. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses while the US 10-year Treasury yields stay firmer around 1.49%, near the fresh three-month high flashed the previous day. Looking forward, Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting minutes and risk catalysts are the key for the GBP/JPY prices. However, chatters over Evergrande and US stimulus, as well as the debt limit, will also be important to follow for fresh direction. Technical analysis Despite crossing the 50-DMA hurdle, now support near 151.60, GBP/JPY bulls need validation from a descending trend line from early July and 100-DMA, respectively around 152.30 and 152.75, for further ruling.  

Silver eases to $22.60 amid Tuesday’s Asian session, following the first positive daily closing. The bright metal pierced a descending resistance line

Silver fails to extend short-term resistance break, steps back from 50-SMA.Upbeat Momentum line suggests further recovery but three-week-old falling trend line, double tops challenge bulls.Silver eases to $22.60 amid Tuesday’s Asian session, following the first positive daily closing. The bright metal pierced a descending resistance line from September 16 the previous day but failed to cross 50-SMA before the latest pullback. However, the Momentum line favors the metal’s rebound from the yearly low marked during the last week. Hence, buyers will wait for a clear upside break of 50-SMA, around $22.65, to take fresh entries targeting the $23.00 threshold. Even so, a three-week-old downward sloping trend line and double tops marked since September 17, respectively around $23.05 and $23.15, will be the key challenges for XAG/USD traders to overcome before retaking the controls. On the contrary, $22.30 may offer immediate support to the silver prices ahead of directing bears to the yearly low surrounding $22.00. Following that, lows marked during November and September 2020, near $21.90 and $21.65 in that order, will be important to watch as they hold the gate for the metal’s south-run towards the sub-$20.00 area. Silver: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

BoJ members agreed to ease more without hesitation if needed. More to come...

BoJ members agreed to ease more without hesitation if needed. More to come...

As per the prior analysis, EUR/USD remains pressured below hourly 20 & 50 EMAs, the price is moving below critical supports and bears could start to e

EUR/USD pressured deeper into bearish territory. Bears looking to the daily support structure in a downside extension of corrective breakout. As per the prior analysis, EUR/USD remains pressured below hourly 20 & 50 EMAs, the price is moving below critical supports and bears could start to engage at this juncture.  The following illustrates a live bearish trade setup. First, some background to the thesis: EUR/USD hourly chart, prior analysisAs illustrated in the hourly chart above, the price has pulled back into resistance as marked by the 20-EMA and the confluence of the 61.8% golden Fibonacci level. While below the 200 and 50 EMAs, the price is in bearish territory, so this may be regarded as a discount to the bears targeting daily support near 1.1680 ahead of 1.1664. At this juncture, bears will be monitoring for a break of the dynamic trendline support for a potential downside extension towards the said daily supports. However, bears would be prudent to note the hourly support below the dynamic trendline support at 1.1697 and only engage in full below there. Besides the daily supports, there are -272% and -61.8% Fibonacci retracements targets as being 1.1675 and 1.1667 respectively.Live market update As seen, the price is drifting lower through that horizontal support and bears may wish to start to look for an optimal short entry point at this juncture.  15-min live trade setups  As illustrated above, the price is now moving further lower which gives rise to a scalping opportunity as well as an intrasession trade set-up opportunity to target the daily support zone.  The scalping stop loss is based above the 20 EMA and resistance as well as the dynamic resistance whereas the intrasession stop loss is above the correction's highs.  The Tokyo fix could offer some volatility.

On Monday, the AUD/JPY began the week on the right foot, finishing the day recording a gain of 0.74%. As the Asian session begins, the pair is trading

The AUD/JPY begins the Asian session on the right foot, eyes 81.00 amid a mixed-market sentiment.Australian Retail Sales could offer fresh impetus to the pair.Japan’s COVID-19 emergency state could be lift-off on Thursday.On Monday, the AUD/JPY began the week on the right foot, finishing the day recording a gain of 0.74%. As the Asian session begins, the pair is trading at 80.84 steady. The market sentiment is mixed as the Asian session kicks in. Equity futures in Asia post gains except for the Nikkei 225 and the Topix, losing 0.03% and 0.14%, respectively. In the meantime, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.50% amid inflationary fears and economic optimism. Australian Retail Sales in the spotlightLater during the day, In the Australian economic docket, AUD/JPY traders’ focus turns to the Preelimnary Retail Sales for August, expected to contract 2.5%, versus a 2.7% decrease in the previous month.  Meanwhile, in Japan, the state of emergency is expected to expire on Thursday. It will be the first time since early April that no prefectures will be under emergency. Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will announce the decision on Tuesday evening, following discussions with disease experts from the government’s coronavirus subcommittee. On Monday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the recovery would become more evident as the impact of the pandemic subsides.  Further, he said that the “timing of consumption recovery will depend largely on developments regarding the pandemic.” AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook1-hour chartThe AUD/JPY broke the 80.77 resistance that now acts as support. The simple moving averages (SMA’s) are located below the spot price, supporting the upside bias. However, the last three candles have been bearish, suggesting a possible re-test of an upslope trendline, around 80.77, is in the cards. In the case of that outcome, a bounce at that level could push the AUD/JPY towards the first resistance level at 81.14. A break above the latter would expose 82.00; however, there would be some hurdles on the way up. The first supply level would be September 10 swing highs around 81.40, followed by September 8 highs around 81.64. On the flip side, a break beneath 80.77 could exert downward pressure on the AUD/JPY, exposing the 50-SMA as the first support level at 80.54. Nevertheless, if the bears would like to reclaim the bearish bias, they would need to break below the 100-SMA at 80.10 The Relative Strenght Index is at 62, heading slightly down. But as it is above the 50-midline, the upside bias remains.

The price of gold on Tuesday is in the hands of the US dollar that has been benefiting from higher US yields following the latest comments from Federa

Gold is under pressure on the charts as the US dollar remains firm. $1,760 is a key resistance and the bears are lurking below. XAU/USD remains vulnerable amid hawkish Fed outlookGold, Chart of the Week: XAU/USD bearish bias forecast below $1,760The price of gold on Tuesday is in the hands of the US dollar that has been benefiting from higher US yields following the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials which include Fed chair Jerome Powell's. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is sat near $1,750 and in the bearish territory while below $1,760.  Gold has recently enjoyed some hidden bullish divergence on the hourly time frame which has given the yellow metal some support in the US session. Gold on Wall Street travelled between a low of $1,744.88 and $1,760.91 on the day so far.  Nevertheless, the pressure is on for the bulls with the price technically bearish below the 4-hour 200, 50 and 20 EMAs that are aligned bearishly with RSI below 50. See more on that below under, Gold, technical analysis.  All eyes on the Fed Meanwhile, the fundamentals driving the markets stem from hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve speakers following last week's hawkish Federal Reserve statement, dot plot and Powell's presser. In this regard, this could be led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will join Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in speaking before Congress on Tuesday. The US dollar advanced for a second straight session on Monday, bolstered by the rise in Treasury yields ahead of a slew of Federal Reserve speakers this week who could affirm expectations of the start of asset purchase reduction before the end of the year. US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit a three-month high of $1.515%. The dollar index DXY, which measures the US currency against six major rivals, rose 0.1% to 93.37. US yields climbed to their highest since late June in anticipation of interest rate increases that may follow sooner than expected. Fed officials on Monday and Tuesday in Asia have echoed Fed's Powell's comments last week surrounding tapering of the Fed's monthly bond purchases to continued job growth. This makes next week's September employment report a massive event for financial markets as it is now seen as a potential trigger for the central bank's bond taper. "As much as taper in and of itself is not a surprise, an earlier end to its program will reinforce that downside risks to the US dollar have diminished," Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities said. "If the last taper cycle was any indication, about half of the US dollar's cyclical upswing was observed three months after taper," he added. Meanwhile, a report compiled by a collective of the TD Securities analysts explained a cleaner discretionary and trend-following positioning slate in gold should keep any weakness from morphing into a rout. ''With that said, we still expect silver to underperform gold on a risk-adjusted basis, as a normalization in industrial demand further weighs on the white metal, while flow effects have not yet been priced.'' ''Looking forward, the 'stagflation' narrative is still capturing the market's share of mind, as participants look to a period of high inflation and slowing growth, but this has yet to translate into additional interest for gold,'' the report ended with.  Gold technical analysis Should the price fails to overcome $1,760 on a closing basis in the coming sessions, this could give rise to further supply and a downside extension. The corrections, as illustrated as A and B on the chart above, show their targets based on the -272% Fibonacci retracements of the correction's ranges. These come in at $1,732 and $1,728: Meanwhile, from an hourly basis, despite the hidden bullish divergence, the price is pressured below critical moving average bearish divergences as follows: For a comprehensive analysis of the gold price, see more here:Gold, Chart of the Week: XAU/USD bearish bias forecast below $1,760

GBP/USD retreats to 1.3700 amid Tuesday’s Asian session, after a positive week-start. The cable pair reacts to the recently mixed comments from the ce

GBP/USD struggles for a clear direction after a positive start to the week.BOE’s Bailey cites growth fears, hints that a rate hike will precede tapering.Fed’s Powell highlights inflation concerns to show readiness for tapering.Merkel's successor held Brexit responsible for UK’s fuel, chicken shortage.GBP/USD retreats to 1.3700 amid Tuesday’s Asian session, after a positive week-start. The cable pair reacts to the recently mixed comments from the central bank leaders of the UK and the US amid the Brexit-led fuel and chicken crisis in England. Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoke during the Society of Professional Economists Annual Dinner while saying, “Monetary policy response, if needed to make one, to the inflation pressure should involve interest rates and not QE.” The policymakers add, “The rate of recovery has slowed over recent months, and that slowing is continuing. Relative to the fourth quarter of 2019, on the latest data to July, the level of GDP was 3.5% lower.” On the other hand, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks for today’s testimony cited inflation and employment concerns while hinting at the tapering. The policymaker said, per Reuters, “We would certainly respond and use our tools to ensure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with our goal." Elsewhere, The Independent came out with the news quoting Germany’s Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) Olaf Scholz, the man set to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor, per the news, while showing further hardships over the UK’s food and fuel crisis. “We worked very hard to convince the British not to leave the union. Now they decided different and I hope they will manage the problems coming from that,” said Scholz per the news. It’s worth noting that the UK’s National Health Services (NHS) recently warned over the shortage of staff, indirectly affecting the covid conditions, should the petrol crisis be left unsolved. That said, UK PM Boris Johnson and his policymakers have agreed to use the military for solving the issue while the British industry body also sounds hopeful of overcoming the bad conditions. On a covid front, Reuters cites 37,960 new COVID-19 cases on Monday and 40 more deaths within 28 days of a positive test versus 32,417 cases recorded on Sunday and 58 deaths. It should be noted that the Bloomberg news suggsting the UK opposition party's push for calling a snap election next year also challenge the GBP/USD buyers of late. Other than the central bank and Brexit, chatters around Evergrande and uncertainty over the US debt ceiling challenges the previous risk-on mood, challenging the S&P 500 Futures by the press time. The same should recall the pair sellers as the US Dollar Index (DXY) tracked the US 10-year Treasury yields to the north the previous day. Looking forward, updates over the Brexit and Fed Chair Powell’s additional comments during the testimony will be the key for GBP/USD traders. Technical analysis Although a two-month-old ascending trend line restricts short-term GBP/USD downside near 1.3635, a daily closing beyond the 200-day EMA level of 1.3727 becomes necessary for the bulls to retake controls.  

Goldman Sachs follows the general market tone while triming 2021 GDP growth forecasts for China. The US bank recently revised down the growth projecti

Goldman Sachs (GS) follows the general market tone while triming 2021 GDP growth forecasts for China. The US bank recently revised down the growth projections to 7.8% versus 8.2% prior. Details suggest that the Q3 2021 GDP forecast is slashed to 0.0% QoQ. “We revise down our Q3 real GDP forecast by 3.5pp to 2.3% QoQ vs. 5.8% previously," said GS in August. Given the Evergrande fears challenging the market sentiment and China's GDP outlook, commodities and Antipodeans may fail to cheer the econmic recovery hopes from the West. Read: AUD/USD grinds higher around 0.7300, Aussie Retail Sales eyed

USD/CAD fails to keep the bounce off a two-week low while easing near 1.2630 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the Loonie pair jus

USD/CAD struggles to keep bounce off the key support confluence.Bearish MACD favor sellers, ascending trend line from late June adds to downside filters, monthly horizontal line guards recovery moves.USD/CAD fails to keep the bounce off a two-week low while easing near 1.2630 amid the early Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies bearish MACD as well as sustained trading below a one-month-old horizontal hurdle while challenging a convergence of 50-DMA and an ascending support line from early June. Even if the quote manages to break the 1.2615-10 near-term key support, a three-month-old ascending trend line near 1.2570 will question the USD/CAD sellers. Should the pair remains bearish past 1.2570, the monthly low of 1.2493 will probe the downside targeting July’s bottom close to 1.2420. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to cross the stated horizontal resistance around the 1.2700 threshold to aim for the early month’s peak surrounding 1.2760. It’s worth noting that a clear upside past 1.2760, enables USD/CAD bulls to aim for July’s top near 1.2810, before heading to the yearly peak of 1.2949. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushed Congress to swiftly addresses the debt limit issue during her latest comments. more to come

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen pushed Congress to swiftly addresses the debt limit issue during her latest comments. more to come

Fed’s Bostic: Fed will allow labor markets to 'run their course' more to come

Fed’s Bostic: Fed will allow labor markets to 'run their course' more to come

AUD/USD struggles to keep Monday’s rebound near 0.7300, around 0.7290 by the press time of Tuesday morning in Asia. The risk barometer pair portrays a

AUD/USD edges higher inside the weekly range between 0.7320 and 0.7220.Market sentiment improves amid hopes of US stimulus, China Evergrande and covid conditions.Fed’s Powell is up for backing taper tantrums citing inflation, unemployment concerns.Australia Retail Sales may improve in August, Fedspeak, other risk catalysts also important for fresh impulse.AUD/USD struggles to keep Monday’s rebound near 0.7300, around 0.7290 by the press time of Tuesday morning in Asia. The risk barometer pair portrays a sluggish mood in the market following an upbeat start to the week, not to forget mentioning cautious sentiment ahead of the preliminary readings of Australia Retail Sales for August. The break to the latest AUD/USD recovery could also have taken clues from the prepared remarks of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, up for publishing on Tuesday (the US time). Fed Chair Powell cited inflation and employment concerns while saying, “We would certainly respond and use our tools to ensure that inflation runs at levels that are consistent with our goal." Furthermore, chatters that the Shenzen government is investigating the wealth management unit of Evergrande and urged to repay investors seem to challenge the risk appetite and to the Aussie pair. Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) also benefited from the firmer Treasury yields, underpinned by the Fed tapering concerns, as well as upbeat US Durable Goods Orders for August, 1.8% versus 0.7% forecast, to add to the upside filters for the AUD/USD. Having witnessed a roller-coaster week filled with the Fed tapering and China’s Evergrande, traders were easy, mostly positive, on Monday amid receding fears of over the Beijing-based real estate firm. Also supporting the mood could be the headlines suggesting easing covid woes as well as market optimism that the economic recovery is gaining traction. People’s Bank of China (PBOC) indirectly hints at supporting the real-estate firm while supporting to keep liquidity reasonably ample. On the other hand, New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian saw October 11 as the start of easing lockdown restrictions while the final stage of reopening is scheduled for December 01. Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks closed in the green while the US 10-year Treasury yields refreshed a three-month high by piercing a 1.50% level, closing around 1.49% with three basis points of an upside. Moving on, AUD/USD traders will need to pay close attention to the preliminary readings of Australia’s Retail Sales for August, expected -2.5% versus -2.7%. Should the Aussie data disappoint, the latest weakness in the quote and fading sentiment may join challenging technicals to recall the sellers. Technical analysis Bearish divergence and 200-DMA challenges the AUD/USD buyers inside the 100-pip range between 0.7320 and 0.7220. In addition to the 200-SMA level surrounding the 0.7300 threshold, an eight-day-old descending resistance line at 0.7305 adds to the upside filters before propelling the quote towards the 0.7320 hurdle. Should the quote manages to defy the RSI divergence and crosses the 0.7320 resistance, September 10 top surrounding 0.7410 and the monthly peak near 0.7480 will be in focus. On the contrary, pullback moves will be restricted by the stated range’s support near 0.7220. Also likely to challenge the AUD/USD bears will be the 0.7200 round figure and 0.7150 support level ahead of August month’s low, also the yearly bottom surrounding 0.7105. AUD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 103.8, above forecasts (102.7) in September

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