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Bảng Tin tức Forex

Thứ ba, Tháng tư 20, 2021

Silver and gold bounced off daily low and turned positive for the day during the American session. The recovery of the US dollar lost momentum and fav

XAG/USD unable to consolidate above 26.00 after hitting fresh daily highs.Price moves sideways on Tuesday, unable to resume the upside and downside limited.Silver and gold bounced off daily low and turned positive for the day during the American session. The recovery of the US dollar lost momentum and favored the rebound. Also, the decline in US yields helped the price of metals. Gold has been a stronger performer than silver over the last hours. The deterioration in market sentiments weighed more on XAG rather than XAU that is benefiting from lower yields. XAG/USD bottomed during the European session at $25.68 and then bounced to the upside. During the last hour, it climbed to as highs at $26.08 but it was unable to hold above $26.00 and pulled back to $25.80. As of writing, it is hovering around 25.90, moving sideways, unable to consolidate under 25.80 or above 26.05. If silver breaks clearly above 26.10, it could rise to test last week's highs around 26.30. On the flip side, a consolidation under 25.75 would increase the bearish pressure, initially for a test of 25.60. Below the next support is at 25.30. Technical levels  

The USD/CAD pair gained traction in the early trading hours of the American session and rose to a daily high of 1.2557. As of writing, the pair was up

USD/CAD rose sharply during the American trading hours. WTI is down more than 2%, trades below $62.US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate above 91.00.The USD/CAD pair gained traction in the early trading hours of the American session and rose to a daily high of 1.2557. As of writing, the pair was up 0.15% on a daily basis at 1.2552. WTI plummets below $62 In the absence of significant macroeconomic data releases, the sharp decline witnessed in crude oil prices caused the commodity-sensitive loonie to face heavy selling pressure. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), which reached a monthly high of $64.35 earlier in the day, is currently trading at $61.70, losing 2.65%. According to Reuters, the US House Judiciary Committee has passed a bill that would open OPEC to antitrust lawsuits over production cuts and this development seems to have triggered an oil selloff. On the other hand, the risk-averse market environment is providing a boost to the greenback and the US Dollar Index stays above 91.00 despite falling Treasury bond yields, allowing USD/CAD to preserve its bullish momentum. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its Interest Rate Decision and release the Monetary Policy Report. The BoC is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% but it could announce an adjustment to asset purchases and trigger a reaction in USD/CAD. Technical levels to watch for  

New Zealand GDT Price Index dipped from previous 0.3% to -0.1%

After posting modest losses on Monday, major equity indexes in the US opened in the negative territory on Tuesday. Reflecting the negative shift in ma

Wall Street's main indexes trade in the negative territory.Energy shares suffer heavy losses after the opening bell.CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is up more than 7%.After posting modest losses on Monday, major equity indexes in the US opened in the negative territory on Tuesday. Reflecting the negative shift in market mood, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's fear gauge, is up more than 7% on a daily basis. At the moment, the S&P 500 is down 0.55% at 4,140, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is losing 0.72% at 33,832 and the Nasdaq Composite is falling 0.55% at 13,831. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Energy Index is down 3% pressured by a 1.7% decline in the US crude oil prices. On the other hand, the defensive sectors, the Utilities Index and the Real Estate Index, both rise around 1%, confirming the risk-averse market environment. S&P 500 chart (daily)

The ECB is forecast to keep the monetary conditions unchanged at its event on Thursday, noted Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann. Key Quotes “The ECB’

The ECB is forecast to keep the monetary conditions unchanged at its event on Thursday, noted Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann. Key Quotes “The ECB’s latest announcement – that purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) over the next quarter will be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year – reinforces our view that it will remain highly accommodative for longer.”  

The greenback now recovers some ground lost earlier in the session and prompts a mild knee-jerk in the single currency, at the same time motivating EU

EUR/JPY loses the grip post-YTD peaks near 131.00.The rebound in the dollar removes strength from the uptick.German Producer Prices surprised to the upside in March.The greenback now recovers some ground lost earlier in the session and prompts a mild knee-jerk in the single currency, at the same time motivating EUR/JPY to recede from earlier new YTD peaks just below 131.00 the figure. EUR/JPY deflates from YTD highs After recording new yearly tops in the proximity of the 131.00 barrier, EUR/JPY gave away part of that move, although it manages to keep the bid bias well in place for the time being. The favourable context for the risk complex put the buck under extra pressure during early trade, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) to new multi-week lows in sub-91.00 levels. The rebound in US yields from Monday’s lows also lends some wings to JPY-sellers, therefore collaborating with the bullish move in the cross. Data wise in Euroland, German Producer Prices came in above estimates in March, gaining 0.9% inter-month and 3.7% from a year earlier. EUR/JPY relevant levels At the moment the cross is up 0.20% at 130.42 and a move past 130.97 (2021 high Apr.20) would pave the way for a test of 131.00 (psychological level) and then 131.98 (2018 high Jul.17). On the other hand, the next support at 129.57 (low Apr.8) followed by 129.21 (50-day SMA) and finally 128.29 (weekly low Mar.24).

The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone through the early North American session, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the move beyond mid-108.0

A combination of factors assisted USD/JPY to stage a modest bounce from multi-week lows.An uptick in the US bond yields helped revive the USD demand and remained supportive.A weaker tone around equity markets benefitted the safe-haven JPY and capped the upside.The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone through the early North American session, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the move beyond mid-108.00s. The pair showed some resilience below the 108.00 mark and gained some positive traction on Tuesday to recover a part of the previous day's losses. An intraday uptick in the US Treasury bond yields triggered the initial leg of the positive move, which got an additional lift from a modest US dollar rebound from multi-week lows. However, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a weaker opening in the US equity markets – extended some support to the safe-haven Japanese yen. This, in turn, held bullish traders from placing any aggressive bets and kept a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/JPY pair, at least for the time being. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair's inability to capitalize on the recovery move suggests that the recent slide from the vicinity of the 111.00 mark, or one-year tops might still be far from being over. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair has formed a strong near-term base. In the absence of any major market-moving economic data from the US, the broader market risk sentiment will drive demand for the safe-haven JPY and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Traders might further take cues from the US bond yields, which might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

The GBP/USD pair refreshed daily lows, around mid-1.3900s heading into the North American session and has now eroded a part of the previous day's stro

GBP/USD stalled its recent strong rally near a resistance marked by the 61.8% Fibo. level.The technical set-up supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buying at lower levels.The GBP/USD pair refreshed daily lows, around mid-1.3900s heading into the North American session and has now eroded a part of the previous day's strong gains. A turnaround in the global risk sentiment, along with a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields allowed the US dollar to stage a modest bounce from six-week lows. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor exerting some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. From a technical perspective, overbought RSI (14) on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor that failed to assist bulls to find acceptance above the 1.4000 mark. The GBP/USD pair, for now, seems to have snapped six consecutive days of the winning streak. That said, technical indicators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for additional gains. Hence, any subsequent pullback might still be seen as an opportunity for bullish traders and remain limited. Meanwhile, the recent strong rally from the 100-day SMA support stalled near a resistance marked by the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.4243-1.3669 downfall. This should now act as a key pivotal point and help determine the next leg of a directional move. A sustained move beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a move towards reclaiming the 1.4100 round-figure mark. The 1.4055-60 horizontal zone might offer some intermediate resistance on the way up. On the flip side, the next relevant support to the downside is pegged near the 1.3900 mark. This is followed by a descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, around the 1.3850 region, which should now act as a strong near-term base for the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD daily chart Technical levels to watch  

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 13.5% (April 16) vs 13.2%

EUR/USD clinches fresh multi-week tops near 1.2080, although deflates to the negative ground afterwards. The pair gained extra upside impulse after su

EUR/USD’s rapid move past 1.2000 met resistance near 1.2080.Bouts of selling pressure are expected to be contained around 1.1910.EUR/USD clinches fresh multi-week tops near 1.2080, although deflates to the negative ground afterwards. The pair gained extra upside impulse after surpassing the 1.2050/64 band, where converge the 100-day SMA and a Fibo retracement (of the November-January rally). Above the new peaks around 1.2080 comes in the interim hurdle at 1.2100 ahead of  the February highs around 1.2240. Above the 200-day SMA (1.1910) the stance for EUR/USD is predicted to remain positive. EUR/USD daily chart  

The EUR/USD pair extended its advance to 1.2079, a fresh one-month high, retreating afterwards but holding on to substantial weekly gains in the 1.204

The EUR/USD pair extended its advance to 1.2079, a fresh one-month high, retreating afterwards but holding on to substantial weekly gains in the 1.2040 price zone. According to FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik, euro/dollar has limited bearish potential. A scarce macroeconomic calendar leaves currency pairs in the hands of sentiment “Germany published the March Producer Price Index, which surprised to the upside by printing at 0.9% MoM and 3.7% YoY. The US macroeconomic calendar has nothing relevant to offer today.” “Technical indicators are retreating from overbought readings but remain well into positive levels.” “A corrective decline could be triggered on a break below 1.2015, the immediate support.”  

The headline Regional Business Activity Index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey improved to 36.3

Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Index improved modestly in April.US Dollar Index posts small daily gains around 91.20.The headline Regional Business Activity Index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey improved to 36.3 in April from 27.4 in March. Further details of the publication revealed that the Firm-level Business Activity Index declined to 21.5 from 26.6 and the Full-time Employment Index edged lower to 7 from 8. Market reaction The US Dollar Index extended its rebound following this report and was last seen gaining 0.14% on a daily basis at 91.20.

DXY lost further ground and slipped back to the 90.85/80 band on Tuesday, where some contention appears to have turned up so far. The continuation of

DXY accelerates the downtrend to the area below 91.00.A deeper pullback should not rule out a move to 90.00.DXY lost further ground and slipped back to the 90.85/80 band on Tuesday, where some contention appears to have turned up so far. The continuation of the selling pressure could expose a more serious break below 91.00 to the psychological 90.00 yardstick, although there are no relevant support levels until the February lows in the 89.70/65 band. Below the 200-day SMA (92.16) the outlook for DXY is expected to remain on the negative side. DXY daily chart  

The AUD/USD pair managed to build on Monday's gains and touched its highest level in a month at 0.7816 on Tuesday. However, the AUD struggled to prese

AUD/USD clings to modest daily gains, stays below 0.7800.US Dollar Index fluctuates in a tight range around 91.00.Safe-haven flows could dominate financial markets in American session.The AUD/USD pair managed to build on Monday's gains and touched its highest level in a month at 0.7816 on Tuesday. However, the AUD struggled to preserve its bullish momentum amid a negative shift witnessed in market sentiment and retraced a portion of its daily upside. As of writing, the pair was moving sideways around 0.770, clinging to modest daily gains. DXY posts small gains in early American session Earlier in the day, the persistent selling pressure surrounding the USD allowed AUD/USD to continue to push higher. However, with the S&P 500 Futures turning south, the greenback started to show resilience against its rivals. At the moment, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.07% on the day at 91.15.  In case Wall Street's main indexes fall sharply after the opening bell, safe-haven flows could weigh on AUD/USD in the second half of the day. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) April Meeting Minutes offered no surprises with regards to the policy outlook. The RBA reiterated that it will not raise the policy rate until actual inflation is sustainably in the 2-3% target range. "The Board is prepared to undertake further bond purchases, beyond the AUD200 billions announced, if it would assist with progress towards its goals," the statement further read but failed to trigger a noticeable reaction in AUD/USD. There won't any macroeconomic data releases featured in the US economic docket in the remainder of the day and the risk perception is likely to remain the primary driver of AUD/USD's movements. Technical levels to watch for  

The EUR/GBP cross edged higher through the mid-European session and refreshed daily tops, around the 0.8635 region in the last hour. The momentum allo

EUR/GBP regained positive traction on Tuesday and recovered a part of the overnight losses.The set-up seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains.A sustained break below the 0.8565 region is needed to negate the near-term positive outlook.The EUR/GBP cross edged higher through the mid-European session and refreshed daily tops, around the 0.8635 region in the last hour. The momentum allowed the cross to recover a part of the previous day's losses to sub-0.8600 levels, or near two-week lows. The mentioned handle marked a confluence region comprising of 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 50% Fibonacci level of the 0.8472-0.8719 strong recovery move from over one-year lows. This should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been losing positive momentum – are still holding in the positive territory. This, along with the emergence of some dip-buying on Tuesday, supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. From current levels, any subsequent positive move might confront resistance near the 0.8660 area, marking the 23.6% Fibo. level and 50-period SMA confluence. A sustained move beyond will reaffirm the constructive outlook and push the cross back above the 0.8700 mark. This is closely followed by the recent swing highs, around the 0.8715-20 region. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the EUR/GBP cross to the 0.8740-50 supply zone, above which bulls might aim to reclaim the 0.8800 mark for the first time since early February. On the flip side, the 0.8600-0.8590 region now seems to have emerged as immediate strong support. A convincing break below will negate any near-term positive bias and turn the EUR/GBP cross vulnerable to test the 61.8% Fibo. level support near the 0.8565 region. Failure to defend the mentioned support levels would expose the key 0.8500 psychological mark before the EUR/GBP cross eventually drops to challenge YTD lows, around the 0.8470 region. EUR/GBP 4-hour chart Technical levels to watch  

S&P 500 strength has all but extended to the 4200 level. Economists at Credit Suisse remain highly alert to a potential consolidation/corrective phase

S&P 500 strength has all but extended to the 4200 level. Economists at Credit Suisse remain highly alert to a potential consolidation/corrective phase from here as the market is seen at its “typical” extreme. The Q2 target of 4200 has all but been achieved “The S&P 500 rally is showing signs of stalling as looked for from essentially our Q2 objective of 4200 with the market seen at its ‘typical’ extreme – 15% above its 200-day average – and with Volume/OnBalanceVolume also still not confirming the new highs.”  “We maintain our view of looking for signs of a peak to this phase here for finally a consolidation/corrective phase and indeed daily RSI momentum already looks to be topping (see lower panel above).”  “Near-term support moves to 4140, then the lower of the recent gap and price support at 4125/21 next. Beneath here would mark a near-term top to add weight to our view for a consolidation/corrective phase with support then seen next at 4097/96, then 4068.”  “Should strength directly extend above 4200 on a closing basis though, we see resistance next at 4225/30, then 4259/60.”  

Despite the heavy selling pressure surrounding the greenback, the XAU/USD pair posted losses on Monday as the recovering US Treasury bond yields made

XAU/USD rebounds after closing in the negative territory on Monday.10-year US Treasury bond yield is edging lower on Tuesday.Additional gains are likely if gold manages to clear $1,775 resistance.Despite the heavy selling pressure surrounding the greenback, the XAU/USD pair posted losses on Monday as the recovering US Treasury bond yields made it difficult for gold to find demand. With the benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield losing nearly 1% on Tuesday, however, the pair managed to regain its traction and was last seen gaining 0.2% on the day at $1,774.70. Gold technical outlook Gold is currently trading around the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend that started on Thursday and lasted for three trading days. If XAU/USD manages to close a four-hour candle above that level, it could look to test $1,790 (Monday high) ahead of $1,800 (psychological level). However, the sharp U-turn witnessed at $1,790 on Monday suggests that gold could struggle to clear that hurdle unless the move is fueled by another leg down in US T-bond yields. On the downside, the initial support is located at $1,772 (20-period SMA) before $1,767 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and $1,760 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). 

The USD/CAD pair recovered over 60 pips from intraday lows and refreshed daily tops, around the 1.2540 region during the mid-European session. A turna

A modest USD rebound assisted USD/CAD to attract some buying near the 1.2480-70 region.A turnaround in the global risk sentiment extended some support to the safe-haven greenback.A pullback in crude oil prices undermined the loonie and provided an additional lift to the pair.The USD/CAD pair recovered over 60 pips from intraday lows and refreshed daily tops, around the 1.2540 region during the mid-European session. A turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by an intraday decline in the US equity futures – helped the US dollar to stall its recent decline to the lowest level since early March. Apart from this, a pullback in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked loonie and extended some support to the USD/CAD pair. The pair once again found some support near the 1.2480-70 area and has now moved into the positive territory for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. That said, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields might hold the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and keep a lid on any further upside for the USD/CAD pair. The Fed's stubbornly dovish view that any spike in inflation will be transitory now seemed to have convinced investors that interest rates will remain near zero levels for a longer period. This, along with the recent sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields from the 14-month peak touched last month might cap any meaningful USD gains. Investors might also refrain from placing aggressive bets, rather prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the latest monetary policy update by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further recovery move amid an empty US economic docket on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch  

Daily aluminium production dropped back a bit in March. But with prices currently at multi-year highs, and only very piecemeal restrictions on output

Daily aluminium production dropped back a bit in March. But with prices currently at multi-year highs, and only very piecemeal restrictions on output in China, economists at Capital Economics doubt it will be long before daily aluminium production starts to creep higher again. Outside of China, the decline in daily production is a departure from the trend increase since the middle of last year “According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global aluminium production grew by 5.0% YoY in March. However, given the virus-related disruption to output last year, we think the monthly change in daily production offers a better steer on the underlying trend. Here, we find that daily production in March both in and outside of China was a little lower than in February.”  “The small MoM fall in daily aluminium production in China probably reflects the suspensions of capacity in Inner Mongolia. However, other major aluminium-producing provinces have not imposed similar restrictions on output, and the big picture remains that profit margins at aluminium smelters in China are very high, which should incentivise additional production in the months ahead.” “Given the huge premiums currently being paid for aluminium in the US, Europe, and Japan, we doubt last month’s decline is a sign of things to come. Instead, we think that aluminium production both in and outside of China will push higher over the course of this year, which should cause the price of aluminium to underperform that of other base metals.”  

USD/SEK has failed at 8.7660 and has resumed its down move. Commerzbank’s longer-term outlook is bearish and targets the 200-month moving average at 7

USD/SEK has failed at 8.7660 and has resumed its down move. Commerzbank’s longer-term outlook is bearish and targets the 200-month moving average at 7.66. The longer-term outlook for USD/SEK is bearish “The rally that we have seen so far this year was nothing more than an ‘a-b-c’ correction which has terminated well ahead of the 80.8473 55-week ma.”  “The down move has already started and is expected to slide back to the 8.1242 2021 low. It is in a longer-term bearish trend and this is expected to be eroded.” “Our long-term target is for a slide to the 7.8274/7.66 band, this is the 2018 low , the 61.8% retracement of the move up from 2011 and the 200-month ma.”  

The USD/CHF pair has broken the 55-day average at 0.9200/9185, which suggests scope for 0.9116/9094, then 0.9047/31, where analysts at Credit Suisse w

The USD/CHF pair has broken the 55-day average at 0.9200/9185, which suggests scope for 0.9116/9094, then 0.9047/31, where analysts at Credit Suisse would look for a floor. USD/CHF has closed below important support at 0.9200/9185, turning the short-term risk lower “USD/CHF has closed below key support at 0.9200/9185, which is the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 upmove, an important psychological inflection point and the rising 55-day average. This suggests a much deeper move lower is beginning, with scope for the 50% retracement next at 0.9116, then the 200-day average at 0.9100/9094. Whilst we would look for an attempt to hold here, we note that the next support is seen at 0.9047/27, where we would have more confidence in a floor.” “Bigger picture, trend following indicators such as moving averages maintain a bullish ‘golden cross’, with weekly MACD staying outright bullish.”  “Our base case is that this is still a corrective move lower, with resistance seen initially at 0.9246, above which would confirm a small base for a reversal back higher, with the next initial level at 0.9282/89.”  

EUR/JPY manages to reverse the pessimism seen at the beginning of the week and clinched fresh yearly highs in levels just shy of the 131.00 yardstick

EUR/JPY reverses Monday’s blues and records new YTD highs.Extra gains remain on the table once 131.00 is cleared.EUR/JPY manages to reverse the pessimism seen at the beginning of the week and clinched fresh yearly highs in levels just shy of the 131.00 yardstick earlier in the European session on turnaround Tuesday Further upside now appears likely if the break above the recent consolidative theme is confirmed in the short-term, with the next target now emerging at the 2018 high at 131.98 (July 17). While above the 5-month support line near 128.80, extra gains should remain on the table. In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 125.92 the broader outlook for the cross should remain constructive. EUR/JPY daily chart  

After closing the first day of the week in the positive territory, the NZD/USD pair preserved its bullish momentum and touched its highest level in mo

NZD/USD climbed to fresh multi-week highs on Tuesday.US Dollar Index stays relatively quiet around 91.00.Wall Street's main indexes look to open lower. After closing the first day of the week in the positive territory, the NZD/USD pair preserved its bullish momentum and touched its highest level in more than a month at 0.7230. With the market mood turning sour during the European trading hours, however, the pair lost its traction and retreated to 0.7200, where it was still up 0.28% on the day. USD selloff pauses ahead of American session The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the greenback fueled NZD/USD's rally. Earlier in the day, the US Dollar Index slumped to its lowest level since early March at 90.85 as US Treasury bond yields continued to have a difficult time staging a convincing rebound.  However, the risk-averse market environment, as reflected by the poor performance of major European equity indexes and the US stocks futures, allowed the USD started to find demand and show resilience against its rivals. At the moment, the DXY is virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 91.08. In the meantime, the S&P 500 Futures are down 0.5%, suggesting that the buck gather additional strength in the second half of the day with safe-haven flows dominating the financial markets.  There won't be any macroeconomic data releases featured in the US economic docket. On Wednesday, first-quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch for  

The USD/JPY pair recovered some ground and trades near a daily high at 108.54, with the dollar taking a breath after yesterday’s slump, although retai

The USD/JPY pair recovered some ground and trades near a daily high at 108.54, with the dollar taking a breath after yesterday’s slump, although retaining its intrinsic weakness. Now, dollar/yen needs to pierce 108.00 to continue its slide, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, reports. Dollar’s sell-off on pause “The change in the market’s mood seems related to the earnings season, as big names will soon start reporting, spurring profit-taking. Also, speculative interest turned cautious ahead of a fresher catalyst. Meanwhile, Japan published the February Tertiary Industry Index, which resulted at 0.3% MoM, better than the previous -1.7%.” “USD/JPY retains its near-term bearish stance, despite the intraday advance. The pair needs to break below the 108.00 figure to resume its decline, while the corrective advance may extend on a clear break above the mentioned 20 SMA, currently around 108.55.”  

Following last week's impressive rally, crude oil prices started the new week on a firm footing and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate gained 0.65%

WTI rose to its highest level since March 18 at $64.35.Libya declared force majeure on exports from Hariga port. Focus shits to API's Weekly Crude Oil Stock data. Following last week's impressive rally, crude oil prices started the new week on a firm footing and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate gained 0.65% on Monday. Focus shits to US oil inventory data With Libya declaring force majeure on exports from Hariga port and saying that additional measures could be taking on other facilities, WTI continued to push higher and touched its best level in a month at $64.35 on Tuesday. Currently, WTI is consolidating its daily gains around $64, rising 0.8% on a daily basis. Later in the week, the American Petroleum Institue's (API) and the US Energy Information's (EIA) weekly crude oil inventories data will be looked upon for fresh impetus.  In the meantime, the sharp increase witnessed in coronavirus cases in Asia, especially in India, forces investors to adopt a cautious stance with regards to energy demand recovery outlook and limits crude oil's gains for the time being. Technical levels to watch for  

The AUD/USD pair retreated around 40 pips from one-month tops and was last seen trading with only modest intraday gains, around the 0.7775 region. The

AUD/USD witnessed a modest intraday pullback from one-month tops amid a modest USD rebound.An uptick in the US bond yields, a turnaround in the risk sentiment underpinned the safe-haven USD.Reduced Fed rate hike bets might cap gains for the USD and help limit the downside for the major.The AUD/USD pair retreated around 40 pips from one-month tops and was last seen trading with only modest intraday gains, around the 0.7775 region. The pair prolonged its recent strong positive momentum from sub-0.7600 levels and gained some follow-through traction through the first half of the trading action on Tuesday. The momentum pushed the AUD/USD pair to the highest level since March 18 and was sponsored by sustained US dollar selling bias. However, a combination of factors kept a lid on any further gains. A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields helped the USD to stall its recent sharp decline to six-week tops. Apart from this, a turnaround in the US equity futures extended some additional support to the safe-haven greenback. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that capped gains for the perceived riskier aussie, rather prompted some selling around the AUD/USD pair. That said, speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero levels for a longer period might hold the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and limit the downside for the AUD/USD pair. Investors seem convinced with the Fed's view that any spike in inflation is likely to be transitory and have been scaling back expectations for an earlier than anticipated lift-off. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling below the overnight swing lows, around the 0.7700 mark before confirming that the AUD/USD pair might have topped out in the near term. This will set the stage for the resumption of the prior corrective decline from the key 0.8000 psychological mark, or three-year tops touched on February 25. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday. Hence, the US bond yields will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment in order to grab some short-term opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

The Chinese economy is likely to return to trend growth after its V-shaped recovery saw a record pace of expansion last quarter, Goldman Sachs economi

The Chinese economy is likely to return to trend growth after its V-shaped recovery saw a record pace of expansion last quarter, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in their latest client note released on Tuesday. Key quotes (via Bloomberg) “The economy appears to have passed a turning point.” “Policy focus has also shifted from helping the economy heal from the COVID-19 downturn to addressing long-term stability and growth issues.” “Compared to 2019 to avoid distortions from last year’s activity collapse, exports and property sales are clear outperformers, while housing starts and manufacturing investment underperformed.” “With meaningful slack remaining, household consumption should play catch-up, but probably at a measured pace given the weight of uncertainties and the long way toward herd immunity.” Related readsEx-IMF Official: China needs structural reform for economyChina’s Pres. Xi: Meddling in others internal affairs would not get one any support

Copper (LME) is heading up towards the 9617.00 February high above which lies the 9905.00/10190.00 region, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst

Copper (LME) is heading up towards the 9617.00 February high above which lies the 9905.00/10190.00 region, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Copper has been rising over the past week or so and is getting ever closer to the 9617.00 February high “As long as the 9617.00 high isn’t overcome further sideways trading around the 9000.00 mark should take place.”  “A rise and daily chart close above the 9617.00 February high would make us bullish again and engage the February and August 2011 highs at 9905.00/10190.00.” “Potential support above the 8570.00 March low comes in along the 55 day moving average at 8804.37 and also at the 8695.00 late March low.” “Below 8570.00 support comes in at the January high at 8238.00. This we would expect to hold, if it were to be revisited at all. Below it sits the December high at 8028.00.” “While the contract stays above the 7705.00/7673.00 late December and January lows we will stay overall bullish.”  

Spain 9-Month Letras Auction declined to -0.544% from previous -0.522%

Spain 3-Month Letras Auction fell from previous -0.557% to -0.591%

GBP/JPY is retreating from two-week highs of 152.03, looking to test the 151.50 support area amid a sharp pullback in GBP/USD from above the 1.4000 ma

GBP/JPY stalls the advance, as 151.50 beckons.Key hurdle on the 4H chart caps the rally in the spot.Overbought RSI conditions also triggered the retreat. GBP/JPY is retreating from two-week highs of 152.03, looking to test the 151.50 support area amid a sharp pullback in GBP/USD from above the 1.4000 mark. The downside in the cross remains by the solid gains in the USD/JPY, as the major continues to benefit from rising US Treasury yields. Technically, GBP/JPY turned south after facing stiff resistance near the critical horizontal (orange) trendline at 152.08. The overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) conditions on the four-hour chart justified the retracement from higher levels. Although a bull cross seen on the said time frame earlier on, suggests that the uptrend could resume after the pullback. The 21-simple moving average (SMA) pierced through the 50-SMA from below, which represented a bullish crossover. To the upside, the bulls look to retest the abovementioned powerful hurdle, above which doors would open towards 152.50 levels. On the flip side, the bears target the 100-SMA at 151.27 if the retreat extends. Further south, the 200-SMA at 151.08 could emerge as strong support. GBP/JPY four-hour chart GBP/JPY additional levels to watch  

USD/JPY has completed a top below 108.41/33 to turn the risk lower, with support seen next at the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 rally and 55-day average

USD/JPY has completed a top below 108.41/33 to turn the risk lower, with support seen next at the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 rally and 55-day average at 107.82/77, with the “measured top objective” a lot lower at 106.05,as reported by the Credit Suisse analyst team. USD/JPY has completed a top, turning the near-term risk lower “We see support at the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 rally and 55-day average at 107.82/77, which we would look to hold at first. This though would be seen as a temporary hold ahead of a move to the uptrend from January at 107.56 next. Below this latter level should then further reinforce the change of trend lower with support seen next at 106.78 and with the ‘measured top objective’ seen a lot lower at 106.05.”  “Immediate resistance is seen at 108.30/32, then the ‘neckline’ to the top at 108.59/69, with 109.10 needing to cap to see the top and our now tactical bearish outlook maintained.”  

The narrative of a strong US economy relative to the EU continues and economists at Danske Bank forecast the EUR/USD at the 1.15 level on a 12-month v

The narrative of a strong US economy relative to the EU continues and economists at Danske Bank forecast the EUR/USD at the 1.15 level on a 12-month view. US economic outperformance continues “The US is likely to experience a very rapid normalization of the labour market and other macro indicators over the next 6-12 months. In markets, these expectations are seen through high levels of equities, low credit spreads, as well as from inflation expectations running at 2.6%. US fiscal policy and a good pace of vaccinations support this.”  “We continue to see Chinese tailwinds as slowing and this will be a counteracting factor for the European uptick, both of which are likely to coincide during H2.” “The Fed has given some sporadic guidance linked to inflation in Q4 and high levels of vaccinations. One should expect talks of tapering to pick up during H2. However, we see the ECB more likely to de facto end PEPP in H2 21 rather than in Mar22 as expectations on the European recovery and higher inflation are firm.”   “We keep our current profile unchanged, in favour of USD. The key risks to watch are 1) the expectations for US recovery must be met, 2) questioning if the EU can surprise on the upside and/or 3) the state of the next leg in US-China tariffs. As has been the case since the onset of COVID-19, the potential outcomes for EUR/USD are very wide, irrespective of us seeing a stronger dollar in our base case.”   “We still target EUR/USD at 1.15 in 12M.”  

EUR/USD maintains its break above 1.1990/97 and large bullish “outside day” and analysts at Credit Suisse look for further strength to 1.2103/13, with

EUR/USD maintains its break above 1.1990/97 and large bullish “outside day” and analysts at Credit Suisse look for further strength to 1.2103/13, with scope for the potential downtrend from early January, today seen at 1.2130. Support moves to 1.1995/90 “EUR/USD maintains its break above key resistance from its 55-day average and mid-March highs at 1.1992/97 completing a large bullish ‘outside day’ in the process and this suggests a more important low has indeed been established near the 1.1695 key retracement support/target (38.2% of the 2020/2021 uptrend).” “We look for further strength to resistance at the March high and 61.8% retracement of the 2021 fall at 1.2103/13, with the potential downtrend from the 2021 high just above at 1.2127/30. We would look for this latter area to then ideally cap for a pullback into what we look to be a broader sideways range.”  “Above 1.2130 would open the door to a move back to the 1.2243 February high.” “Support moves to 1.2033 initially, then 1.2015, with 1.1995/90 ideally holding to keep the immediate risk higher. Below can see a fall back to 1.1946/42, but only back below here would warn of a ‘false’ break higher and instead mark a near-term top.”  

The GBP/USD pair retreated around 25 pips from daily swing highs and was last seen hovering in the neutral territory, around the 1.3985-90 region. The

Sustained USD selling, upbeat UK jobs report pushed GBP/USD to multi-week tops on Tuesday.Rebounding US bond yields extended some support to the USD and capped gains for the major.The GBP/USD pair retreated around 25 pips from daily swing highs and was last seen hovering in the neutral territory, around the 1.3985-90 region. The pair added to the previous day's massive rally of over 180 pips and edged higher during the first half of the trading action on Tuesday. The uptick pushed the pair to the highest level since early March and was supported by the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. Bulls, however, struggled to capitalize on the move, or find acceptance above the key 1.4000 psychological mark The USD dropped to six-week lows amid speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero levels for a longer period. This, along with mostly upbeat UK monthly employment details, provided an additional boost to the GBP/USD pair and remained supportive. That said, a combination of factors extended some support to the USD and capped any further gains for the GBP/USD pair, at least for now. A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields helped ease the USD bearish pressure. This, along with a turnaround in the US equity futures, further underpinned the greenback's relative safe-haven status against its British counterpart. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid optimism over the successful coronavirus vaccination campaign in the UK and the gradual reopening of the economy. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent strong move up from the 100-day SMA support has run out of steam. Hence, any meaningful pullback might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bullish positions around the GBP/USD pair amid absent relevant market-moving US economic releases on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch  

Commenting on the inoculations, the European Union’s (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said that there will be enough vaccines for 70%

Commenting on the inoculations, the European Union’s (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said that there will be enough vaccines for 70% of the bloc's population by July.   more to come ...

UK virus concerns and a bounce in the EUR recently brought EUR/GBP to the highest level since early March. Nevertheless, economists at Danske Bank sti

UK virus concerns and a bounce in the EUR recently brought EUR/GBP to the highest level since early March. Nevertheless, economists at Danske Bank still expect a stronger pound despite the bump. UK economy to outperform the euro-area this year “The UK is gradually reopening supported by fast vaccinations, which, combined with businesses getting used to the new EU-UK trading relationship, means that the outlook for the UK economy looks much brighter. We expect the UK economy will outperform the euro area this year.”   “EU-UK trade recovered in February after a sharp drop in January although trade is not all the way back to more normal levels. Overall, we think Brexit as a theme has moved into the background now, but keep an eye on the EU-UK negotiations on the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol.”  “We have seen a significant repricing of the Bank of England (BoE) in Q1. It is not long ago a negative BoE Bank Rate was a theme, but now the first 15bp rate hike is priced already in November 2022, which would take the Bank Rate back to 0.25%. We think this is slightly to the aggressive side, as we do not expect any hikes through 2022, at the moment. Eventually, the BoE is likely to tighten monetary policy earlier than the ECB.” “We think the recent EUR/GBP increase closer to 0.87 is a bump in the road and remain bullish on GBP, as we are still more upbeat on the UK than on the euro area. Near-term, we expect EUR/GBP to trade around the current levels before the cross starts to move lower again. We still forecast EUR/GBP will trade at 0.83 in 12M.”  

The upbeat sentiment around the shared currency remains well and sound and motivates EUR/USD to advance to new highs in the 1.2080 region on turnaroun

EUR/USD remains bid and approaches the 1.2100 yardstick.The dollar trades in in multi-week lows despite high yields.Producer Prices in Germany rose 0.9% MoM, 3.7% YoY.The upbeat sentiment around the shared currency remains well and sound and motivates EUR/USD to advance to new highs in the 1.2080 region on turnaround Tuesday. EUR/USD supported by risk appetite EUR/USD trades in the positive territory for the third consecutive session so far, always on the back of the renewed and quite moderate selling pressure in the greenback and investors’ preference for the risk-associated universe. In fact, market participants accelerate their exodus from the safe haven space and bolster the ongoing upbeat mood in the riskier assets. This sentiment pushes EUR/USD to levels last traded in early March well above the psychological 1.2000 hurdle. In addition, the risk appetite trends remain propped up by rising optimism on the recovery in Europe in combination with the firmer pace of the vaccine rollout. In the euro docket, German Producer Prices rose at a monthly 0.9% in March and 3.7% over the last twelve months. Across the pond, the only release will be the usual API’s weekly report on crude oil inventories. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD moved to fresh peaks around 1.2080 and remains well poised to extend the upside to the 1.2100 neighbourhood in the short-term horizon. The continuation of the rally has been so far supported by the renewed offered bias in the dollar along with the investors’ shift to the growth prospect in Europe now that the vaccine campaign appears to have gained some serious pace. In addition, solid results from key fundamentals and the improvement in the sentiment in the euro area as of late also appear to bolster the momentum surrounding the single currency.Key events in the euro area this week: ECB interest rate decision, President Lagarde’s press conference, European Commission advanced Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) – Flash April PMIs (Friday), ECB Lagarde speech.Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the index is gaining 0.26% at 1.2068 and faces the next hurdle at 1.2079 (monthly high Apr.20) followed by 1.2243 (monthly high Feb.25) and finally 1.2349 (2021 high Jan.6). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1910 (200-day SMA) would target 1.1762 (78.6% Fibo of the November-January rally) en route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31).

Despite progress in vaccine rollouts and signs of recovery in some countries – which has encouraged a rotation towards coronavirus-vulnerable sectors

Despite progress in vaccine rollouts and signs of recovery in some countries – which has encouraged a rotation towards coronavirus-vulnerable sectors in global equity markets – the Switzerland Index has continued to underperform the USA Index both in local-currency (LC) and common-currency terms. Accordingly, strategists at Capital Economics are revising down their forecast for Swiss equities. End-2021 and end-2022 MSCI Switzerland Index forecasts lowered “Our view remains that the rotation in global equity markets will resume soon. All else equal, we still expect this to benefit the Switzerland Index given its high combined weighting of coronavirus-vulnerable sectors.” “The Switzerland Index would continue to miss out on the rotation towards energy, which we think is set to perform well for the remainder of this year. We have pencilled in the price of Brent oil pushing higher to $70 by end-21 (from ~$67 currently). What’s more, the Switzerland Index has a higher share of ‘defensive’ sectors than the USA Index (~59% and ~22%, respectively) – such as consumer staples, healthcare and utilities – which are likely to gain less in a cyclical upturn such as the one we are forecasting.” “We now think that the MSCI Switzerland Index will rise by around 8% between now and end-2022 in LC terms, which is roughly in line with the returns we project for the USA Index during this period. What’s more, given that we expect the Swiss franc to weaken further (to ~0.99 per US dollar by end-2022), we forecast that the returns of the Switzerland Index in US$ terms will be broadly flat over this period.”  

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure for the second straight session on Tuesday, looking to extend Monday’s correction from seven-week highs of $1790

Rising Treasury yields outweigh the DXY’s sell-off, weighing on Gold. XAU/USD remains poised to test the 100-HMA support. Recapturing the 50-HMA Is critical to negating the downside bias.Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure for the second straight session on Tuesday, looking to extend Monday’s correction from seven-week highs of $1790. The spot currently trades 0.15% lower at $1768, having hit a two-day low of $1765 in the last hour. The sentiment around the non-yielding gold remains undermined by the ongoing recovery rally in the US Treasury yields across the curve amid a revival of the reflation trades. The benchmark 10-year US rates are back near the 1.63% mark, up 1.60% on a daily basis. Successful covid vaccine campaigns worldwide combined with the US infrastructure stimulus hopes boost expectations of faster economic recovery, driving the returns on the market higher. Meanwhile, the persistent weakness in the US dollar amid the economic optimism helps slow down the decline in the USD-denominated gold. However, the technical setup remains in favor of the bears in the near term, which keeps the metal under pressure. Gold Price Chart: Hourly   On the one-hour chart, gold’s upside attempts appear capped below the 21-hourly moving average (HMA) at $1772, as of writing. An hourly closing above that level is needed to challenge the horizontal 50-HMA at $1775. Recapturing that hurdle is critical to reviving the upbeat sentiment around the yellow metal. Further up, the previous week high at $1784 could be put to test, beyond which the three-week highs of $1790. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) lurks in the bearish region, pointing to more losses in the offing. The immediate downside target for the XAU/USD pair is seen at the mildly bullish 100-HMA at $1762. The 200-HMA at $1752 could likely be the last resort for gold bulls. Gold: Additional levels  

EUR/GBP has followed its bearish “reversal day” with the completion of a top below 0.8626/21 to confirm the risk has indeed turned lower again, the Cr

EUR/GBP has followed its bearish “reversal day” with the completion of a top below 0.8626/21 to confirm the risk has indeed turned lower again, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports. Below 0.8626/21, EUR/GBP suggest the base has been negated and that the recovery is already over “EUR/GBP maintains the weak tone following its bearish ‘reversal day’ on Friday and support at 0.8626/21 has been removed with ease. This sees a small top complete which should confirm the recent basing effort has indeed been negated, with the decline having already extended to just shy of initial support at 0.8578. Whilst we would look for an initial hold here and eventual break should see a move back to the 0.8471/65 April low and then the ‘measured objective’ from the long -term top at 0.8430.”  “Big picture, we suspect an eventual test of the 2019/2020 lows at 0.8281/39 will be staged.” “Resistance is seen at 0.8629 initially, with a break above 0.8674 needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back to 0.8699, then 0.8722. Beyond here though is needed to see the “reversal day” negated for a move to 0.8761 next.”  

The USD/CAD pair slipped below the key 1.2500 psychological mark during the early European session and has now moved closer to near one-month lows tou

A combination of factors prompted some fresh selling around USD/CAD on Tuesday.Dovish Fed expectations weighed on the USD despite an uptick in the US bond yields.A pickup in oil prices underpinned the loonie and further contribute to the selling bias.The USD/CAD pair slipped below the key 1.2500 psychological mark during the early European session and has now moved closer to near one-month lows touched on Monday. The pair struggled to capitalize on the previous day's rebound of over 70 pips, instead met with some fresh supply on Tuesday and was pressured by a combination of factors. Speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a longer period dragged the US dollar to six-week lows. Apart from this, a pickup in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and exerted some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Investors seem convinced with the Fed's view that any spike in inflation is likely to be transitory and have been scaling back expectations for an earlier than anticipated lift-off. This, along with the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets, continued weighing on the safe-haven greenback, which, so far, has struggled to find any support from the ongoing strong recovery move in the US Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, a weaker USD offered some support to dollar-denominated commodities, including oil. This was seen as another factor that contributed to the offered tone surrounding the USD/CAD pair. However, concerns about rising coronavirus cases in Asia might cap gains for the black gold and help limit the downside for the major amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Tuesday, either from the US or Canada. Investors might also refrain from placing aggressive bets, rather prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting on Wednesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling below the 1.2470 area before positioning for any further depreciating move. That said, the emergence of some fresh selling suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD pair remains to the downside. Technical levels to watch  

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research, gives his views on USD/SGD. Key Quotes “In the FX Technical section of our Quarterl

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research, gives his views on USD/SGD. Key Quotes “In the FX Technical section of our Quarterly Global Outlook published one month ago on 19 Mar 2021 (when USD/SGD was trading at 1.3410), we noted the breach of the declining trend-line resistance, and we held the view that USD/SGD ‘is likely to strengthen further’ in the second quarter of the year. We highlighted that ‘a break of the 55-week exponential moving average at 1.3560 would not be surprising’. USD/SGD subsequently traded sideways but did not break the moving average. Yesterday (19 Apr), USD breached the strong support at 1.3330 and dropped quickly to 1.3300 before extending its decline today (low of 1.3262 at the time of writing).” “With the 55-week exponential moving average still intact, coupled with the ease by which USD/SGD took out 1.3330 and 1.3300 indicates that our view from last month for USD/SGD to “strengthen further” in the second quarter is incorrect. On the daily chart, the risk has shifted to downside but at this stage, it is premature to expect USD/SGD to break the major support near 1.3160 (low of 1.3157 in Jan and 1.3164 in Feb). Ahead of 1.3160, there is another strong shorter-term support at 1.3200.” “On the weekly chart, while MACD is weakening, it is still positive. The 55-week exponential moving average currently sits very close to the March’s peak near 1.3530. Within these few months, this level is critical as only a breach of this resistance would indicate that the downside risk has dissipated. On a shorter-term note, the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud near 1.3360 is already quite a formidable resistance level.”

The greenback remains on the defensive for yet another session and extends the drop further south of the key 91.00 support when tracked by the US Doll

DXY keeps the bearish note unchanged below 91.00.The leg lower in the dollar comes despite the rebound in US yields.The weekly report by the API will be the only release of note.The greenback remains on the defensive for yet another session and extends the drop further south of the key 91.00 support when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Dollar Index weaker on risk-on trade The index extends the leg lower to new 7-week lows in the 90.90/85 band on turnaround Tuesday. The dollar remains unable to gather some fresh oxygen in spite of the rebound in yields of the US 10-year note to the 1.63% region after bottoming out around 1.55% at the beginning of the week. In the meantime, investors continue to favour the risk complex, always with expectations of a strong rebound in the Old Continent on the rise along with the firmer pace of the vaccine campaign. In the US data space, the weekly report on US crude oil supplies by the API will be the sole release later on Tuesday. What to look for around USD The dollar stays offered and retreats to the sub-91.00 levels for the first time since early March, always amidst the retracement in US yields and the loss of enthusiasm on the US reflation/vaccine trade. Also weighing on the buck emerges the mega-accommodative stance from the Fed (until “substantial further progress” in inflation and employment is made) and hopes of a strong global economic recovery, all morphing into a source of support for the risk complex and a most likely driver of probable weakness in the dollar in the second half of the year.Key events in the US this week: Initial Claims, CB Leading Index, Biden’s virtual Climate Summit (Thursday) - Flash Markit Manufacturing PMI (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s new stimulus bill worth around $3 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? Future of the Republican party post-Trump acquittal. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is losing 0.13% at 90.96 and faces the next support at 90.85 (weekly low Apr.20) ahead of 89.68 (monthly low Feb.25) and then 89.20 (2021 low Jan.6). On the other hand, a break above 91.60 (50-day SMA) would open the door to 92.16 (200-day SMA) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.31).

Greece Current Account (YoY) declined to €-0.84B in February from previous €-0.436B

Last month’s strong gains for the US dollar have almost been fully reversed as the US dollar’s correction lower has continued to extend at the start o

Last month’s strong gains for the US dollar have almost been fully reversed as the US dollar’s correction lower has continued to extend at the start of this week after key technical levels have been broken. EUR/USD has climbed back above 1.2000 while the European Central Bank commitment to higher bond purchases in Q2 stays in focus. ECB PEPP purchases have picked up but not “significantly”? “The euro has derived support at the start of this week from rising yields in Europe. The 10-year yield spread between German and US government bonds has narrowed by around 24bps so far this month in favour of the euro partially reversing the 45bps of widening that took place between February and March. The pullback in US yields has been the main driver of the yield spread narrowing this month, although the recent uptick in European yields is attracting some market attention as well. It could reflect in part an easing of pessimism over the European growth outlook in response to the sharp acceleration in the pace of vaccine roll-out.”  “It is already the consensus view that the ECB will slow the pace of planned QE purchases from Q3 as the outlook for the eurozone economy continues to improve. On top of that the latest weekly data released yesterday has cast some further doubt on whether the ECB will carry out significantly higher purchases in Q2. Over the last five weeks since the ECB’s last policy meeting, net weekly purchases have increased only modestly to a five-week average of EUR16.8 B up from EUR14.5 B in early March. The ECB may need to increase the pace of purchases further if upward pressure builds on yields. The risk of miscommunication for the ECB is adding to concerns over a ‘mini-taper’ tantrum.”   

The NZD/USD pair continued scaling higher through the early European session and shot to fresh one-month tops, around the 0.7225-30 region in the last

A combination of factors assisted NZD/USD to gain strong follow-through traction on Tuesday.Reduced Fed rate hike bets weighed on the USD and remained supportive amid the risk-on mood.The market focus now shifts to the release of the NZ quarterly inflation report, due on Wednesday.The NZD/USD pair continued scaling higher through the early European session and shot to fresh one-month tops, around the 0.7225-30 region in the last hour. The pair added to the previous day's positive move and gained strong follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The US dollar languished near multi-week lows amid speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero levels for a longer period. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor driving the NZD/USD pair higher. Apart from this, the underlying bullish tone in the financial markets further undermined the safe-haven greenback and benefitted the perceived riskier kiwi. Even a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields did little to impress the USD bulls or hinder the NZD/USD pair's ongoing momentum to the highest level since March 18. Tuesday's positive move could further be attributed to some technical buying on a sustained strength beyond the 0.7200 round-figure mark. With the latest leg up, the NZD/USD pair has now rallied nearly 300 pips from monthly lows and seems poised to prolong its upward trajectory amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Hence, the focus now shifts to the NZ quarterly inflation figures, due on Wednesday. The report comes amid indications that price pressures have been building up domestically and overseas. A hotter-than-expected reading might force the RBBZ to rethink its ultra-dovish policy, which should be enough to provide an additional boost to the NZD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), left its benchmark 7-day reverse repo unchanged at 3.50% at its April monetary policy meeting held this

Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), left its benchmark 7-day reverse repo unchanged at 3.50% at its April monetary policy meeting held this Tuesday. The central bank governor Perry Warijyo said that exports and fiscal stimulus support the GDP recovery. Additional comments Global economic recovery seen stronger than initially anticipated. Financial market uncertainty and volatility of UST yields still happening. Uncertainty impacts EM currencies, including rupiah. Country's exports seen better than initially expected. Domestic consumption still limited. Revises 2021 GDP outlook to +4.1% to +5.1%. Q1 c/a deficit seen low. Keeps 2021 c/a deficit estimate at 1% to 2% of GDP. Rupiah exchange rate relatively manageable after stabilisation efforts. Continues to strengthen measures to stabilise rupiah. 2021 inflation y/y seen within 2%-4% target range. Quantitative easing since 2020 amounting to 798.85 trln rupiah. 2021 bond purchase in primary market amounting to 101.91 trln rupiah.

While last year China temporarily reverted back to its old economy model, this year it is refocusing on its new one, outlined in its new Five Year Pla

While last year China temporarily reverted back to its old economy model, this year it is refocusing on its new one, outlined in its new Five Year Plan. This is where the most interesting investing opportunities are found: domestic consumption, technological innovation and energy transition, Gabriela Santos, Global Market Strategist at JP Morgan, informs. Timing and nature of Chinese recovery different than US “China’s expansion continues this year, but with a focus on the quality over quantity of growth. China aims to shift gears back to its long-term priorities by normalizing policy and growth drivers. The March economic data shows the baton moving back to the ‘new China’ (domestic demand and consumption) from last year’s ‘old China’ (external demand and investment). For investors, this is the most interesting long-term opportunity: China’s domestic consumption, technological innovation and energy transition. Crucially, these themes are more accessible as China’s capital markets continue to develop and open up.” “China’s GDP grew 2.3% in 2020, led by exports and industry. This recovery is very different from what has occurred in the US, where consumption has led and industry has lagged. The nature of the fiscal stimulus provided in each country helps to explain why: China aimed its support at local governments and corporations, while the US aimed it directly at households. In 1Q, China’s GDP grew 18.3% YoY, showing the expansion continuing.” “After this year’s 18% correction in the MSCI China, valuations are now presenting a more interesting entry point. Over the next decade, China’s growing capital markets and its increasing size in the 60/40 portfolio is the most interesting development to watch.”  

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets forecasts (3.5%)

Brent rose 0.4% to $67.05 yesterday. This is the first time in more than a month that the benchmark crude has closed above the $67 level. In the view

Brent rose 0.4% to $67.05 yesterday. This is the first time in more than a month that the benchmark crude has closed above the $67 level. In the view of strategists at OCBC Bank, crude oil looks set to resume its upward climb. Crude oil posts a break to the upside “In the past two weeks the 5-day average of Asia gasoline and crack spreads have been inching higher. In the case of gasoline, whether one looks at the gasoline FOB Houston-WTI crack margin or the Asia 92 RON Singapore gasoline-Brent spread, those have been closing in on the highs seen in 2019 and are pointing to a supply tightness in the market, by virtue of which suggests commuters are now increasingly up and moving.”  “Specs are the least long on NYMEX on a YTD basis as of last Tuesday and that presents an opportunity for longs to start building their positions again.” “We stay bullish on crude oil in both the short and medium-term, with near-term resistance eyed at $69.”  

Silver (XAG/USD) has reclaimed the green territory after snapping back into losses on Monday. Sellers continue to lurk above the $26 mark, keeping the

Silver hovers within a symmetrical triangle on the 4H chart.XAG/USD awaits a range break, with odds for the upside higher. Bullish RSI and 21-SMA support keep the XAG buyers hopeful.Silver (XAG/USD) has reclaimed the green territory after snapping back into losses on Monday. Sellers continue to lurk above the $26 mark, keeping the support zone around $25.80/60 region exposed. However, the rising 21-simple moving average (SMA) at $25.87 has every time come to the rescue of the XAG bulls. Therefore, it's critical for the white metal that the 21-SMA support holds, in order to recapture the $26 threshold. If the buying pressure intensifies around silver, we could see the $26 level likely to be taken out, as the triangle resistance could come into the picture at $26.15. A four-hour candlestick closing above the latter is likely to validate a symmetrical triangle breakout, opening doors towards the $26.50 psychological level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades listless around 58.50 but above the central line. Thus, the odds of a potential upside remain higher.   Silver Price Chart: Four-hour However, if the price closes the candlestick below the 21-SMA support, a breach of the triangle support remains inevitable. The ascending 50-SMA support at $25.49 will be up for grabs. Silver Additional levels  

EUR/USD has surged above 1.20. Now, the pair needs a shot in the arm from J&J after riding on dollar weakness, Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, rep

EUR/USD has surged above 1.20. Now, the pair needs a shot in the arm from J&J after riding on dollar weakness, Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, reports. EUR/USD may receive more reasons to rise “President Joe Biden met a Congressional delegation on Monday and additional developments are likely on Tuesday. If Democrats manage to pass a corporate tax hike, it would mean less debt issuance down the road and less pressure on bonds. In turn, lower yields would weigh on the dollar.” “The next EUR/USD moves likely depends on developments in the old continent. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is set to publish its verdict on Johnson & Johnson's single-dose vaccine on Tuesday. After last week's suspension, there is a good chance that the regulator allows its usage, boosting Europe's vaccination campaign.” “Another boost to the common currency may come from Germany, where the ruling CDU/CSU bloc is about to decide on who will be the party's chancellor candidate. According to reports from Berlin, the CDU's moderate leader Armin Laschet will likely remain at the helm, providing some relief to markets.”  “The daily high of 1.2075 is the immediate resistance line. It is followed by 1.2110, which was a swing high in early March.” “Support awaits at 1.2025, a stepping stone on the way up, followed by the round 1.20 level.”  

Expectations of improving UK economic growth and less dovish Bank of England, alongside its early lead in vaccine rollout, have supported the GBP so f

Expectations of improving UK economic growth and less dovish Bank of England, alongside its early lead in vaccine rollout, have supported the GBP so far this year. Economists at HSBC think much of the good news is in the price and GBP/USD now looks high relative to rate differentials. When cyclical supports fade in allure, a renewed focus on the sizeable UK twin deficits may weigh on the pound. GBP/USD looks high relative to rate differentials “We believe that the GBP has capitalised on expectations of a robust cyclical upswing, as a successful COVID-19 vaccination rollout in the UK alongside the government’s fiscal largesse within the 2021 budget have supported the domestic economy.” “On the monetary policy front, the BoE seems to be relaxed about the rise in UK government bond yields, echoing the Federal Reserve in suggesting it merely reflects justified economic optimism. Market expectations for the BoE have also become less dovish.” “Much of the good news on the cyclical front is already priced into the GBP, and GBP/USD now looks high relative to its rate differentials, so the risk could be to the downside.”  “As other nations are likely to close the gap on the UK’s early lead in vaccine rollout, the potency of the vaccination story is likely to wane in the coming months, curbing the GBP’s gains.” “If the cyclical upswing fades, the sizeable UK twin deficits (i.e., deficits on both current account and fiscal balance) will challenge the GBP’s allure.”  

The USD/JPY pair refreshed daily tops, around the 108.45 region during the early European session and recovered a part of the previous day's losses. H

A combination of factors assisted USD/JPY to stage a modest bounce from multi-week lows.The risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and remained supportive of the move up.An uptick in the US bond yields provided an additional lift; weaker USD capped the upside.The USD/JPY pair refreshed daily tops, around the 108.45 region during the early European session and recovered a part of the previous day's losses. Having shown some resilience below the 108.00 mark, the pair staged a modest recovery from seven-week lows and was supported by a combination of factors. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. Bulls further took cues from an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, albeit the prevalent US dollar selling bias might cap gains for the USD/JPY pair. The USD remained depressed near the lowest level since early March amid speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a longer period. Investors now seem convinced with the Fed's view that any spike in inflation is likely to be transitory and have been scaling back expectations for an earlier lift-off. This, along with fears about another dangerous wave of coronavirus infections, might hold bulls from placing aggressive bets. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed out. That said, the bias remains tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of the recent pullback from one-year tops. Hence, any subsequent positive move might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the 109.00 mark. The mentioned handle represents a confluence support breakpoint, comprising of the 200-hour SMA on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the 102.59-110.97 strong move up, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Technical levels to watch  

Gold rose 0.7% to $1776.51/oz last Friday and is now trading at its highest since late February. Howie Lee, Economist at OCBC bank, turns neutral in t

Gold rose 0.7% to $1776.51/oz last Friday and is now trading at its highest since late February. Howie Lee, Economist at OCBC bank, turns neutral in the near term, however, he notes XAU/USD could suffer more pressure long-term as US Treasury yields resume their uptrend.  See – Gold Price Analysis: US Treasury yields and USD to ease later in the year, allowing for XAU/USD gains – HSBC Falling yields and dollar support gold’s rise “The fall in US Treasury yields and the DXY index have supported gold’s elevated level.” “Our model suggests a fair value range of $1671-$1775/oz for gold at current inputs, which means at current levels, gold is not too far off its fair value estimation.” “We close our tactical recommendation of short gold and stay neutral on the precious metal in the short-term.”  

The Japanese yen moved through its respective resistance levels against the USD, with the USD/JPY flexing at 108.00. The flow-driven run has left the

The Japanese yen moved through its respective resistance levels against the USD, with the USD/JPY flexing at 108.00. The flow-driven run has left the USD/JPY eyeing the next key support level at 107.70/00, and a further grind towards this mark may be at hand, as reported by OCBC Bank. More pain for the USD before reverting higher “The breach of support at 108.30/40 left the USD/JPY quickly searching lower towards 108.00 before a pause.”  “Firmer supports at 107.70/80 at this point.”  “With the 10y UST yield holding lows around 1.55%, it may not be advisable to expect significant USD/JPY downside from here.”  

The EUR/USD pair has eroded the 1.1990/1.2014 pivot to reassert the up move as theUS Dollar drops sharply lower, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical

The EUR/USD pair has eroded the 1.1990/1.2014 pivot to reassert the up move as theUS Dollar drops sharply lower, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, reports. EUR/USD is bid above 1.1885 “EUR/USD has at last eroded the 1.1990/1.2014 pivot, and attention has reverted to the topside and initial resistance is the March 3 high at 1.2115, ahead of 1.2243, the February high.  “The Elliott wave count is suggesting dips lower are likely to remain fairly tepid and hold around 1.1890.”  “This move adds weight to the idea that the market has resumed its longer term bull trend against the dollar.”  

Structural reforms need to be the top priority of the Chinese government this year, Bloomberg reports, citing comments from Zhu Min, a former deputy m

Structural reforms need to be the top priority of the Chinese government this year, Bloomberg reports, citing comments from Zhu Min, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Key quotes “In 2021, structural reform is the most important thing for China,” “If we keep on the 2020 path, we have the risk of returning to the old model, which is what we don’t want to see.” “China’s strong recovery from the pandemic was mostly fueled by higher investment and exports, while consumption was a drag.” “This worked against the country’s efforts over the past decade to shift to a consumption-driven economy.” Related readsChina’s Pres. Xi: Meddling in others internal affairs would not get one any supportUSD/CNH: Further losses emerge on a breach of 6.5000 – UOB

The greenback has struggled over the past couple of weeks, as US long-term bond yields have fallen back after their surge in Q1 and risky assets gener

The greenback has struggled over the past couple of weeks, as US long-term bond yields have fallen back after their surge in Q1 and risky assets generally have rallied. So it seems a stretch to attribute Monday’s further drop in the greenback to the publication of the Treasury’s report on Friday. Economists at Capital Economics believe the continued policy divergence is likely to support the US dollar. The domestic policy mix that the US is currently pursuing will result in a stronger dollar “Although the US Treasury’s biannual report refrained from explicitly naming any country a ‘currency manipulator’, it highlighted the growing policy divergence between the US and other major economies. We think that this policy gap will continue to put upward pressure on the US dollar – despite its recent weakness, we think that it will end the year stronger against most other currencies.” “We expect that US yields will eventually resume their rise, and again outpace those of most other major economies. That would put renewed upward pressure on the dollar.” “The US has implemented a massive short-term fiscal stimulus package this year, and further measures focused on longer-term infrastructure projects may follow later in 2021. At the same time, its rapid vaccination program means that its economy is reopening quickly. By contrast, policymakers in Europe and Asia have been less aggressive. This means that the US economy will probably grow significantly faster than most others in the near term.” “In the longer term, the US’ enduring trade deficits (and the continual deterioration of its external balance sheet that results) point to a weaker dollar. But in the near term, the US’ forceful fiscal approach and resulting upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields suggest, in our view, that the greenback will strengthen.”  

Gold lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses, around the $1,770 level through the Asian session on Tuesday. A c

Gold was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Tuesday.COVID-19 jitters, sustained USD selling continued lending some support to the commodity.The risk-on mood, uptick in the US bond yields helped limit any deeper losses for the metal.Gold lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses, around the $1,770 level through the Asian session on Tuesday. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD and led to subdued/range-bound price moves through the first half of the trading action. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets was seen as a key factor that undermined the safe-haven precious metal. This, along with a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, capped the upside for the non-yielding yellow metal. That said, renewed fears about another dangerous wave of coronavirus infections globally and sustained US dollar selling bias extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the overnight pullback from the $1,790 region, or near two-month tops. The USD languished near multi-week lows amid speculations that the Fed will keep interest rates near zero levels for a longer period. Investors now seem aligned with the Fed's view that any spike in inflation is likely to be transitory and have been scaling back their expectations for an earlier than anticipated lift-off. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Tuesday. That said, rebounding US bond yields could lend some support to the USD and exert some downward pressure on the XAU/USD. Traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD has managed to take advantage of dollar weakness to peek above 1.40 with Britain's successful vaccination campaign also helping. Reactions to

GBP/USD has managed to take advantage of dollar weakness to peek above 1.40 with Britain's successful vaccination campaign also helping. Reactions to the UK's jobs report and US infrastructure developments are eyed, Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, briefs. Sterling has reasons to rise while the picture for the dollar is more complex “The market mood remains upbeat about the American economy, which is roaring back and helping lift other economies. This ‘risk-on’ mood weighs on the safe-haven dollar, and this greenback weakness now has a life of its own – it continued despite a decline in US stocks on Monday.” “President Joe Biden met a bipartisan group of members of Congress and talks remain at an initial phase. The White House wants to fund its $2.25 trillion plan via tax hikes, which imply lower debt issuance. Additional headlines from Washington are set to move markets.”  “The UK continues benefiting from Britain's vaccination campaign. After running quickly with first doses, the UK fully immunized ten million people – a remarkable catch-up with second jabs. Infections and hospitalizations continue falling, despite the country's gradual reopening.”  “The pound has received a boost from UK labor figures. The Unemployment Rate surprised with a drop to 4.9% in February, and the Claimant Count Change surprised with only a minor increase of 10,100 in March. Britain's labor jobs market seems to have weathered the lockdown months and is ready to spring higher.” “Pound/dollar is in overbought territory – the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is significantly above 70, implying an imminent downside correction. All in all, the graph is pointing to a setback followed by gradual gains.”  “The daily high of 1.4008 nearly converges with the March peak of 1.4015, and this area is critical for the next upside moves. Some support awaits at 1.3960, which was a swing high in mid-March. It is followed by the early-April peak of 1.3920.”  

Gold (XAU/USD) pulled back nearly $20 from seven-week highs of $1790 on Monday, finishing the day slightly in the red. In Tuesday’s trading so far, go

Gold (XAU/USD) pulled back nearly $20 from seven-week highs of $1790 on Monday, finishing the day slightly in the red. In Tuesday’s trading so far, gold is consolidating losses before the bears can resume the correction declines. In the view of FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta, XAU/USD eyes $1760-55 amid higher yields and bearish technicals. See – Gold Price Analysis: US Treasury yields and USD to ease later in the year, allowing for XAU/USD gains – HSBC Gold’s downside appears more compelling in the near term “Higher US yields will likely remain a weight on the yieldless gold amid global optimism, as the economic calendar remains scarce on both sides of the Atlantic.” “Fresh updates on the covid vaccines and US fiscal stimulus will be closely followed for fresh impetus on gold prices.” “Strong support at $1761 will get tested if the downside pressure accelerates. That level is the confluence of the horizontal trendline support and ascending 100-HMA. The next relevant cap is seen at the 200-HMA at $1752.” “A sustained break above the $1775 resistance is needed to revive last week’s bullish momentum. The previous week high at $1784 could be on the buyers’ radars, above which the seven-week tops at $1790 will be retested.”  

Low-interest rates and structural factors will continue exerting downward pressure on financial institutions' profits even after the coronavirus pande

Low-interest rates and structural factors will continue exerting downward pressure on financial institutions' profits even after the coronavirus pandemic impact subsides, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said in its semi-annual report released on Tuesday. The BOJ’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) is published after conducting a review of the country's banking system. Key highlights Japan's financial system stable as a whole though pandemic continue to inflict big impact on the economy. Investors' risk sentiment improving, fund inflows into stock market, emerging economies surging. Japan's financial system is resilient to shocks but rising credit costs, losses banks could incur to its securities holdings, potential disruption to banks' dollar funding are among risks. BOJ will actively support financial institutions' efforts to respond to climate change risks, digitalisation. USD/JPY reaction USD/JPY is seeing fresh signs of life from a fresh uptick in the US Treasury yields, which offsets the negative impact of the falling dollar on the spot. The spot rises 0.13% to daily highs of 108.31, having hit seven-week lows of 107.97 earlier in the Asian session.

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate dipped from previous 7.5% to 7.3% in March

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 10.1K, below expectations (24.5K) in March

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) registered at 4.4% above expectations (4.2%) in February

United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 4.5%, below expectations (4.8%) in February

GBP/USD holds above 1.40 after UK jobless rate beats estimates to 4.9% in February more to come ... About UK jobs The UK Average Earnings released by

GBP/USD holds above 1.40 after UK jobless rate beats estimates with 4.9% in Februarymore to come ... About UK jobs The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below forecasts (5.1%) in February: Actual (4.9%)

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (3.3%) in March: Actual (3.7%)

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in March: Actual (0.9%)

Shares in Asia fail to provide a clear direction on Tuesday amid mixed signals concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the region and insignificant d

Asian equities trade mixed, Japan bears the burden of virus woes.Markets in China benefit from PBOC inaction, ignore President Xi.Australia, New Zealand track Wall Street losses, US Treasury yields stay bid.Shares in Asia fail to provide a clear direction on Tuesday amid mixed signals concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the region and insignificant data/events at home. While portraying the mood, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan rises 0.42% but Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 2.07% by the press time. Possible recalling of the covid-led emergency measures in Tokyo and surrounding prefectures disappointed Japanese investors even as chatters swirl that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may alter its inflation target to keep the monetary policy easy. On the other hand, Chinese shares benefit from the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) inaction while ignoring downbeat comments from President Xi Jinping. Chinese President Xi not only raised doubts over the covid recovery but also indirectly warned the Western nations in his latest appearance on Tuesday. Trades in Australia and New Zealand couldn’t ignore the downbeat performance of the US stocks as fears of further hardships for the technology shares join cautious sentiment during the busy earnings season to heavy the sentiment. It’s worth mentioning that RBA minutes reiterate employment fears as justifying the easy money policy and exert additional downside pressure on the Aussie markets. Elsewhere, Indian bourses are mildly positive amid a pullback in new infections while Indonesian markets are in the same line ahead of the Bank Indonesia Rate Decision. Although the US stock futures and the Treasury yields weighed on the US dollar, bulls aren’t convinced amid mixed trade and geopolitical signals. As a result, traders remain on toes ahead of the week’s key data/events, comprising the ECB and the BOC monetary policy meetings. Also read: S&P 500 Futures regain upside momentum beyond 4,150 amid mixed clues

USD/CNH could re-visit 6.4850 if 6.5000 is cleared in the next weeks, commented FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We did not anti

USD/CNH could re-visit 6.4850 if 6.5000 is cleared in the next weeks, commented FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We did not anticipate the relatively sharp drop in USD to 6.5031 yesterday (we were expecting USD to trade between 6.5210 and 6.5410). Despite the rebound from the low, the weakness in USD has yet to stabilized. From here, USD could test the major support at 6.5000 first before a more sustained recovery can be expected (next support is at 6.4850). Resistance is at 6.5180 followed by 6.5250.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a negative view in USD since the middle of last week. While USD weakened as expected, the pace of decline was slow and downward momentum was lackluster. Yesterday (19 Apr, spot at 6.5300), we highlighted that USD ‘has to move and stay below 6.5150 within these couple of days or the odds for further USD weakness would diminish quickly’. USD subsequently plummeted to 6.5031 before closing at 6.5100 (-0.28%). Downward momentum has improved, albeit not by all that much. That said, the risk for USD is still on the downside and we continue to eye our initial ‘objective’ at 6.5000. A clear break of this level would shift the focus to 6.4850. On the upside, a breach of 6.5350 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 6.5530) would indicate that the downside risk has dissipated.”

UK businesses have reported upbeat trading last week as they reopened after three months of lockdown, the Financial Times (FT) reports, citing economi

UK businesses have reported upbeat trading last week as they reopened after three months of lockdown, the Financial Times (FT) reports, citing economists who note that the unofficial data confirm forecasts of a strong rebound in the second quarter. Additional takeaways “In the first three days after the reopening, visits to retail and entertainment venues jumped to within 24 percent of January’s 2020 average levels, up from 50 percent below in the week before, according to Google mobility data, which points to a sharper recovery than after the first lockdown.” “A similar picture for the retail sector was presented by statistics from consultancy Springboard, which showed that footfall last week across all UK retail destinations was 25 percent lower than in the same week of 2019.” “In the first three days after the reopening, consumer spending was up 10 percent compared with the same days of that week in 2019, up from nearly minus 30 percent in the week ending April 11, according to Fable Data, a company that tracks credit card transactions. In the same three days, retail spending rose to 43 percent above the level of the same period in 2019, Fable Data showed.” Market reaction GBP/USD is keeping its range around 1.4000, benefiting from the broad US dollar’s decline and the encouraging UK fundamentals. The spot was last seen trading at 1.3994, up 0.10% on the day.

UOB Group’s FX Strategists believe USD/JPY could still grind lower in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for USD to ‘trade side

UOB Group’s FX Strategists believe USD/JPY could still grind lower in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for USD to ‘trade sideways’ was wrong as it plummeted to 108.00. While the sharp and rapid drop appears to be overdone, USD could test 107.90 first before stabilization can be expected. For today, the next support at 107.70 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 108.40 followed by 108.60.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two weeks ago (06 Apr), when USD was trading at 110.30, we highlighted that ‘a short-term top is in place’. As USD declined, in our latest narrative from last Wednesday (14 Apr, spot at 108.85), we noted that ‘downward momentum is beginning to wane but there is still chance for USD to move to 108.40’. We added, ‘further weakness to 108.00 is not ruled out but the odds for such a move are low’. After trading in a quiet manner and within relatively narrow ranges for a few days, USD cracked 108.40 and plunged to 108.00 yesterday (19 Apr). While the improved downward momentum suggests further USD weakness is likely, there is another major support at 107.65. In other words, 107.65 may not come into the picture so soon. On the upside, a break of 108.85 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 109.20) would indicate that the pullback has run its course.”

In light of advanced readings for Natural Gas futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose for the second session in a row at the beginning of t

In light of advanced readings for Natural Gas futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose for the second session in a row at the beginning of the week, now by more than 4K contracts. Volume followed suit and went up by around 27.7K contracts, reversing at the same time three daily drops in a row. Natural Gas now eyes $2.90 Prices of Natural Gas extended the rally on Monday amidst rising open interest and volume, opening the door to the continuation of this trend at least in the very near-term. That said, the next hurdle lines up at the March highs around the $2.90 mark per MMBtu.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 20: Markets are calm after a decline on Monday but the dollar remains depressed. Mixed news about the

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, April 20: Markets are calm after a decline on Monday but the dollar remains depressed. Mixed news about the virus and US infrastructure are eyed, while cryptocurrencies extend their decline. The US dollar is on the back foot for the second consecutive day, with EUR/USD changing hands at around 1.2060, the highest since early March. The greenback's decline comes despite an uptick in US Treasury yields. Returns on benchmark ten-year bonds are around 1.60%. The market mood is relatively calm, yet Wall Street ended Monday's session with moderate falls, not gains. Earnings season is in full swing.  US President Joe Biden hosted members of Congress from both parties in an attempt to garner support for his infrastructure spending programs. Statements coming after the encounter have shown an upbeat mood but no substantial progress. GBP/USD has managed to take advantage of dollar weakness to peek above 1.40 with Britain's successful vaccination campaign also helping. The UK's jobs figures are set to show a minor increase in the Unemployment Rate from 5% to 5.1%. Gold is trading around $1,770, consolidating its gains from previous days and weathering the increase in US yields.  Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned the US not to "boss around" and also cautioned against trade decoupling. He committed his country, the world's second-largest economy to fighting climate change. Commodity currencies are big beneficiaries, with AUD/USD advancing toward 0.78 despite minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia stating that the jobless rate remains too high.Coronavirus: India has continued suffering record daily infection levels above 270,000, weighing on the local stock market and on the rupee. In the US, cases are flattening after several days of gains, potentially showing that the immunization campaign is bearing fruit. Some 40% of Americans have received at least one jab. Cryptocurrencies have been extending their losses, with Bitcoin pressured around $55,000 and Ethereum suffering its sixth consecutive down day, changing hands at around $21,40. Analysts see the drop as a healthy correction. XRP is around $1.30 and Dogecoin, which started as a joke, is already worth some $54,000.  The pause that refreshes: Are currency markets hesitant to run with US data?

USD/CAD remains pressured around 1.2495, down 0.31% intraday, while heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the loonie pair teases confi

USD/CAD stays depressed near intraday low inside a bearish chart formation.A confluence of 200 and 100 SMAs will test recovery moves, sellers can eye March low.Downbeat Momentum, failures to recover back sellers but a clear break of 1.2470-65 should provide extra strength to the sellers.USD/CAD remains pressured around 1.2495, down 0.31% intraday, while heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the loonie pair teases confirmation of the rounding top bearish chart pattern on the four-hour (4H) play. Given the downbeat Momentum indicator and the quote’s inability to cross 100 and 200-SMA confluence during the bounce-off two-month-old support area, USD/CAD is likely to confirm the bearish technical formation. However, a clear break below 1.2470-65 should offer extra positives for the USD/CAD bears targeting March lows near 1.2365. During the fall, the 1.2400 round figure may offer an intermediate halt. Alternatively, a clear upside break of the key SMA confluence near 1.2555-60 will target the late March top surrounding 1.2650. Though, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of February 28 to March 18 downside, near the 1.2600 trhreshold, will act as an intermediate halt during the rally. Overall, USD/CAD is on a bearish trajectory but needs confirmation for further weakness. USD/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

FX option expiries for Apr 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1895 519m 1.1925 810m 1.1940 854m 1

FX option expiries for Apr 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.1895 519m 1.1925 810m 1.1940 854m 1.2000/05 725m 1.2135/40 582m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.3650 570m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          108.35 540m 110.00 435m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.2565 485m   

Upward momentum in NZD/USD now looks improved, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The sharp and swift rise in NZD to 0.7

Upward momentum in NZD/USD now looks improved, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The sharp and swift rise in NZD to 0.7198 came as a surprise (we were expecting NZD to consolidate). Despite the strong advance, upward momentum has not improved by as much. However, there is scope for NZD to test 0.7215. For today, the next resistance at 0.7240 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 0.7165 followed by 0.7140.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected NZD to strengthen since the middle of last week. Yesterday (19 Apr, spot at 0.7135), we noted that ‘overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first’. Instead of consolidating, NZD soared to 0.7198, close to our initial ‘objective’ at 0.7200. While upward momentum has improved, it appears a bit ‘tentative’ for now. That said, the risk is still on the upside but the next resistance at 0.7240 may not come into the picture so soon. On the downside, a break of 0.7120 (‘strong support’ level was at 0.7065 yesterday) would indicate that NZD strength has run its course.”

Investors trimmed once again their open interest positions in Crude Oil futures markets on Monday, now by around 4.6K contracts, according to prelimin

Investors trimmed once again their open interest positions in Crude Oil futures markets on Monday, now by around 4.6K contracts, according to preliminary figures from CME Group. In the same line, volume shrunk for the third session in a row, this time by around 6.8K contracts. WTI eyes a move to YTD lows Monday’s uptick in prices of WTI was sustained by short covering, as noted by the backdrop of shrinking open interest and volume. That said, extra gains look somewhat limited in the very near-term, although a move to the YTD highs just below $68.00 is not ruled out for the time being.

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the next relevant hurdle for Cable emerges at 1.4100. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday th

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the next relevant hurdle for Cable emerges at 1.4100. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘there is room for the advance in GBP to test 1.3865 first before easing’. Instead of ‘testing’ 1.3865, GBP blast past this level and rocketed to 1.3993. While clearly overbought, there is room for GBP to move above last month’s peak near 1.4020. For today, the next major 1.4100 is not expected to come into the picture. Support is at 1.3955 followed by 1.3920.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We noted yesterday (19 Apr, spot at 1.3825) that ‘the advance in GBP has covered considerable ground but it could strengthen further to 1.3890’. While our view for GBP to strengthen is correct, the sudden lift-off that sent GBP rocketing to 1.3993 came as a surprise. Note that GBP gained +1.01% yesterday, its biggest 1-day advance since mid-Jan. The rapid rise appears to be a bit overdone but is not showing any sign of weakening just yet. In other words, GBP could advance further even though the next major resistance at 1.4100 may not come into the picture so soon. On the downside, a breach of 1.3850 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.3750 yesterday) would indicate that the current GBP strength has come to an end. On a shorter-term note, 1.3920 is already a strong support level.”

USD/INR picks up bids to 74.77, down 0.13% intraday, amid the initial Indian trading session on Tuesday. The US dollar weakness and the recent pullbac

USD/INR bounces off intraday low, prints mild losses.US dollar index remains heavy near the lowest in seven weeks.India’s infection numbers recede for the first in a week albeit marginally.Risk catalysts, Indian government’s push for vaccinations will be eyed for fresh impulse.USD/INR picks up bids to 74.77, down 0.13% intraday, amid the initial Indian trading session on Tuesday. The US dollar weakness and the recent pullback in the nation’s covid cases seem to have favored the pair bears earlier. However, doubts over the pandemic reduction as well as greenback’s corrective pullback likely back the latest USD/INR moves. As per the latest Bloomberg report, “New coronavirus infections dropped for the first time in a week, albeit marginally, at a time the government decided to expand the inoculation drive to everyone above the age of 18. 2.59 lakh people tested positive for the infection in the last 24 hours, according to the Health Ministry's update at 8:00 a.m on April 20. Active cases surged past 20 lakh for the first time.” The Indian government announced the extension of its vaccination plan to over 18 years of age the previous day amid criticism of the ruling party’s governance during the pandemic. On the other hand, the US dollar index (DXY) drops to the lowest since early March as markets cheer hopes of further stimulus from America and faster vaccinations driving sooner economic recoveries. Against this backdrop, stocks in India remains mildly bid while following the S&P 500 Futures whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also stay firmer above 1.61% by the press time. Given the lack of major data/events up for publishing, risk catalysts remain the key to watch for fresh direction. Technical analysis A clear break above 74.95 will confirm a bullish flag on the four-hour chart, which in turn should direct USD/INR prices towards the monthly top of 75.49. Meanwhile, the support line of the stated flag near 74.07 can precede the 74.00 threshold to test the sellers.  

CME Group’s flash data for Gold futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the first time on Monday after four consecutive daily builds, this time

CME Group’s flash data for Gold futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the first time on Monday after four consecutive daily builds, this time by around 1.6K contracts. Volume, instead, reversed the previous day’s drop and went up by nearly 7.5K contracts. Gold still targets $1,800Gold prices advanced to the $1,790 area on Monday, although it ended the session with losses. The move was accompanied by shrinking open interest, indicative that a knee-jerk could be in the offing in the very near-term. On the upside, in the meantime, the yellow metal continues to target the key $1,800 mark per ounce troy.  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD could now attempt a move to 1.2115 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We did not anticipate the su

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD could now attempt a move to 1.2115 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We did not anticipate the sudden surge in EUR that blew past the solid resistance zone between 1.2000 and 1.2010 (high of 1.2048). Upward momentum remains strong and EUR could advance further towards 1.2065. For today, the next resistance at 1.2115 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 1.2015 followed by 1.1995.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a positive outlook in EUR for two weeks. As the advance in EUR struggled to break 1.2000, we highlighted yesterday (19 Apr, spot at 1.1970) that ‘unless EUR breaks clearly above 1.2000/1.2010 within these couple of days, the chance for further EUR strength would diminish quickly’. EUR subsequently cracked 1.2000/1.2010 and surged to 1.2048. Upward momentum has been boosted and the next level to focus on is at 1.2115. That said, there is a rather strong resistance level at 1.2065. The current positive phase in EUR is deemed intact as long as it does not move below 1.1965 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1915 yesterday).”

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) increased to 0.3% in February from previous -1.7%

USD/IDR fails to extend the bounce-off intraday low while teasing $14,500 during early Tuesday. In doing so, the Indonesian rupiah takes the bids ahea

USD/IDR stays depressed near two-week low, bears attack intraday bottom off-late.200-SMA, lower line of weekly falling channel test further downside.Bank Indonesia is widely expected to keep benchmark rate unchanged near 3.5%.USD/IDR fails to extend the bounce-off intraday low while teasing $14,500 during early Tuesday. In doing so, the Indonesian rupiah takes the bids ahead of the Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate Decision. However, 200-SMA and short-term descending channel’s lower line, respectively around $14,480 and $14,460, challenge the pair’s immediate downside. It’s worth mentioning that the BI is likely to keep benchmark rates unchanged near 3.5% but fears of growth prospects and the coronavirus (COVID-19) can trigger the USD/IDR bounce. Though, the previous support line from March 17, around $14,550, followed by the stated channel’s upper line near $14,580, should restrict the short-term recovery moves. Meanwhile, USD/IDR bears’ dominance below $14,460 will eye for the December 2020 high surrounding $14,330. USD/IDR four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

EUR/USD is extending the advance towards 1.2100, mainly driven by the ongoing decline in the US dollar and EU’s covid vaccine optimism. After a brief

EUR/USD regains 100-DMA on the way to 1.2100.US dollar loses further ground in Asia amid an upbeat mood. Euro cheers rising vaccination rates as economic optimism grows. EUR/USD is extending the advance towards 1.2100, mainly driven by the ongoing decline in the US dollar and EU’s covid vaccine optimism.   After a brief consolidative stint, the US dollar resumes its declines across the board heading towards the European session, as the risk-on market mood dims the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The US dollar index refreshes seven-week lows at 90.88, losing 0.18% on the day. The uptick in the US Treasury yields fails to defy the dollar bears, as the broader market sentiment leads the way. Boosting the appetite for riskier assets and the single currency is the growing economic optimism, induced by rising vaccination rates in the Old Continent. The EU will secure additional 50 million Pfizer/BioNTech doses while the J&J vaccine issue could be resolved shortly, which could help ramp up the vaccine supplies. Expectations of a faster Eurozone’s economic recovery amid the vaccine optimism is reflective of the rise in the German bund yields, offering additional support to the euro. Markets now await the ECB monetary policy decision for fresh trading opportunities in the spot. In the meantime, the dynamics in the dollar and vaccine updates will continue to influence the major. EUR/USD technical levels FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal notes, “100-day SMA around 1.2060 tests the major currency pair’s latest run-up, a break of which will highlight March’s top of 1.2133 and late January peak surrounding 1.2190 for the EUR/USD bulls. Alternatively, pullback moves below the immediate support line, previous resistance, surrounding 1.2015 will recall the mid-March tops near 1.1990 to the chart.” EUR/USD additional levels            

GBP/USD buyers cheer US dollar weakness while taking bids near 1.4007, up 0.14% intraday, ahead of Tuesday’s London open. In addition to the greenback

GBP/USD bulls attack March month top during seven-day uptrend.DXY remains offered following the heaviest drop in 2021.Market sentiment turns positive amid stimulus, vaccine hopes.UK jobs report may ease but bears may not risk entries during the data-heavy week.GBP/USD buyers cheer US dollar weakness while taking bids near 1.4007, up 0.14% intraday, ahead of Tuesday’s London open. In addition to the greenback’s slump, optimism concerning the UK’s economic recovery, backed by faster vaccinations, also favors the cable to jump to the highest since March 04. Even so, the bulls await the UK’s employment figures for fresh impulse. After printing the year’s heaviest daily losses the previous day, the US dollar index (DXY) remains offered as the US Treasury yields and stock futures remain bid amid mildly positive market sentiment. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields add 1.3 basis points to 1.61% whereas Futures of S&P 500 and FTSE 100 are both up 0.20% intraday by the press time. While checking the catalysts behind the risk-on mood, hopes of breaking the deadlock over the US infrastructure spending bill and the faster vaccinations in the west gain major attention. US President Joe Biden’s readiness to alter his initial $2.25 trillion proposal seems to lure the Republicans to drop their initial rejection of the much-awaited stimulus. Elsewhere, Israel and the UK extend their speedy vaccinations while also showing a cautious optimism when unlocking the economy step-by-step. In doing so, British PM Boris Johnson shuns travel plans to India amid rising infections and virus strains. The UK also said, per Reuters, “It would launch a new international expert group to help bolster the world’s preparedness for the next pandemic and expedite the development of vaccines against future diseases when they emerge.” Chatters over Brexit, US-China and Russia-Ukraine tried to heavy the market sentiment but failed. However, those headlines are in the development stage and need further attention as and when cross the wires. Other than the risk catalysts, the data-heavy calendar, starting with the UK’s jobs report for March, also becomes the key for the GBP/USD bulls. Forecasts suggest the headline Claimant Count Change ease from 86.6K to 25.5K during March whereas the Unemployment Rate may tick-up from 5.0% to 5.1% during the three months ended in February. Ahead of the data, Westpac said, “The February ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.0% as the extended furlough scheme continues to support the labor market.” While the British figures may help GBP/USD to stay positive, a busy week ahead could challenge the sterling buyers and may trigger profit-booking moves in case of weaker-than-expected figures. Technical analysis Despite piercing seven-week-old horizontal resistance, GBP/USD bulls need a successful break above 1.4020 to keep the reins. Otherwise, pullback moves towards the early April tops near 1.3920-15 can’t be ruled out.  

AUD/USD is battling 0.7800, sitting at the highest levels in seven weeks, as the sentiment remains underpinned by broad-based US dollar weakness. The

AUD/USD clinches fresh seven-week highs, briefly regains 0.7800. The aussie’s daily chart shows scope for additional upside. RSI points north, as the bulls eye the horizontal trendline resistance. AUD/USD is battling 0.7800, sitting at the highest levels in seven weeks, as the sentiment remains underpinned by broad-based US dollar weakness. The covid vaccine rollouts driven global economic optimism continues to weigh on the haven demand for the greenback. The dovish RBA minutes and PBOC’s inaction failed to have any impact on the aussie. From a near-term technical perspective, AUD/USD remains on track to challenge the horizontal (orange) trendline resistance at 0.7853, as the upside break from the symmetrical triangle extends into a fresh week. The February 26 high of 0.7884 remains next on the buyers’ radars. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pointing upwards, near 62.02, the upside appears more compelling for the aussie. AUD/USD daily chart To the downside, immediate support awaits at the horizontal 50-daily moving average (DMA) at 0.7724. The round number at 0.7700 could then challenge the bearish commitments. The mildly bullish 100-DMA at 0.7679 will likely come to the AUD bulls’ rescue. AUD/USD additional levels to watch    

Gold (XAU/USD) is extending its corrective decline from seven-week highs of $1790 reached on Monday. The rebound in the US Treasury yields serves as a

Gold (XAU/USD) is extending its corrective decline from seven-week highs of $1790 reached on Monday. The rebound in the US Treasury yields serves as a key driver for the pullback in the non-yielding gold, which offsets the impact of the sagging dollar. US President Joe Biden’s efforts to seek a deal on his $2.25 trillion infrastructure proposal revived the buying interest around the yields. The global covid vaccine optimism also collaborated with the uptick in the US rates. How is the metal positioned on the technical charts? Gold Price Chart: Key resistance and support levels The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold’s pullback is testing minor support around $1766, which is the convergence of the previous day low and Bollinger Band four-hour middle. Defending the $1761 cushion is critical for the XAU bulls. At that point, the SMA100 one-hour coincides with the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week and the previous month high. The next powerful cap is seen at $1754, the confluence of the pivot point one-month R1 and pivot point one-day S2. On the flip side, recapturing the $1771 hurdle (Fibonacci 23.6% one-week) could bring the $1777 resistance back in the play. The latter is the intersection of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and SMA10 four-hour. Further up, the previous week high of $1784 could challenge the bullish traders, as they look to retest the multi-week tops clinched a day before. Here is how it looks on the tool   About Technical Confluences Detector   The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.  

Analysts at Goldman Sachs cite three reasons why not to turn outright bullish on USD/JPY. Key quotes "First, while it has a unique sensitivity to long

Analysts at Goldman Sachs cite three reasons why not to turn outright bullish on USD/JPY. Key quotes "First, while it has a unique sensitivity to long-end rates, the Yen will benefit with other G10 crosses if US front-end rates converge toward our dovish Fed call.” “Second, speculative traders have turned net short JPY, and we have not seen evidence that bond outflows from Japan are materially picking up.” "Third, JPY appears about 14% undervalued relative to our GSDEER-implied long-run estimate of "fair value," and the TWI is at low levels relative to history.”. USD/JPY bears stay in control in Tokyo for fresh 6-week low

The Australian economy is expected to rejoice its COVID-19 win by expanding at the fastest pace since 2007, a Reuters poll of 34 economists showed on

The Australian economy is expected to rejoice its COVID-19 win by expanding at the fastest pace since 2007, a Reuters poll of 34 economists showed on Tuesday. Key findings “At a time when most major economies are battling a fresh wave of coronavirus cases, Australia has largely curtailed the outbreak, counting only about 30,000 local infections and 910 deaths since the start of the pandemic.” “In 2020, on average, the UK economy contracted 10%, the eurozone by well over 6%, Japan by 5% and the U.S. by more than 3%.” “After contracting at a much slower pace than its peers at around 2.5% last year, Australia's A$2 trillion economy was forecast to expand on average by 4.4% this year and 3.2% in 2022 (vs. 3.5%; 3.0% in the January poll).”

US dollar index (DXY) remains offered around the lowest since March 04 while declining to 91.02, down 0.06% intraday, amid early Tuesday. In doing so,

DXY stays depressed, refrains to recover after the heaviest drop in 2021.Confluence of ascending trend line from early January, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement offers the key support below 100-day SMA.Buyers may resistance entries below the monthly resistance line.US dollar index (DXY) remains offered around the lowest since March 04 while declining to 91.02, down 0.06% intraday, amid early Tuesday. In doing so, the greenback gauge refreshes the multi-day bottom while staying pressured after positing the heaviest losses in the current year. Although sustained break below 50-day SMA keeps DXY bears hopeful, 100-day SMA tests the sellers around 91.00. Even if the US dollar gauge drops below the 91.00 threshold, a convergence of the medium-term rising trend line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-March upside, near 90.80 will be the tough nut to crack for DXY sellers. Alternatively, the corrective pullback may eye the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 91.31 but the bulls are less likely to get convinced until witnessing a clear break of a downward sloping resistance line from March 31, around 91.70. During the consolidation moves, a 50-day SMA of 91.60 will act as an extra filter to the north. DXY daily chart Trend: Corrective pullback expected  

More comments flowing in from the Chinese President Xi Jinping, as he continues to deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the annual conf

More comments flowing in from the Chinese President Xi Jinping, as he continues to deliver a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the annual conference of the Boao Forum for Asia. Building barriers and pushing for decoupling will harm others without benefits. Should step up efforts to implement Paris accord on climate change. Must reject cold war and zero-sum mentality. China will expand health cooperation with other countries. 'Meddling in others' internal affairs would not get one any support'. China aims to build green, high-quality belt and road. China will not seek hegemony. China will not participate in arms race. China will never pursue hegemony regardless its development level. China will continue to reduce its negative list for foreign investment.   more to come ....

S&P 500 Futures pick-up bids to 4,162, up 0.22% intraday, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer refrains to extend the previous day’s

S&P 500 Futures print mild gains despite US Treasury yields stay bid.US President Biden’s readiness to compromise on spending plan, covid vaccine optimism favor bulls.Russia, China and fears of virus infection test upside momentum.S&P 500 Futures pick-up bids to 4,162, up 0.22% intraday, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer refrains to extend the previous day’s pullback from the record top amid mixed catalysts. On the positive side are the hopes to overcome the deadlock of the $2.25 trillion US infrastructure spending plan, unveiled by President Joe Biden, as the Democratic Party member showed readiness to alter the details on Republicans’ criticism. Further, escalating the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations in the US, the UK and Israel are also favorable to the market sentiment. It’s worth mentioning that the easing of activity restrictions and travel guidance by the governments of the UK, Australia and New Zealand add to the risk-on mood. Meanwhile, the covid cases remain elevated in Europe and India, which in turn probe the risk-on mood. Also on the same side are chatters surrounding Russia’s military build-up and the US push for Hong Kong freedom. It should be noted that the Wall Street benchmarks turned red the previous day amid likely challenges to technology stocks and cautious sentiment ahead of the key earnings. While the S&P 500 Futures stay positive, the US 10-year Treasury yields extend the previous day’s upside momentum beyond 1.60% but the US dollar index (DXY) fails to rebound after the heaviest drop in 2021. Looking forward, a light calendar requires investors to keep their eyes on risk catalysts. Among them, US-China and America-Russia headlines may entertain markets while the covid and vaccine updates should also play their roles.

EUR/GBP has paused its three-day losing streak, attempting a minor bounce while defending the critical short-term 21-daily moving average (DMA) suppor

EUR/GBP stalls the sell-off but not out of the woods yet.Falling wedge resistance now support eyed on the 1D chart. RSI remains bearish and calls for more downside. EUR/GBP has paused its three-day losing streak, attempting a minor bounce while defending the critical short-term 21-daily moving average (DMA) support at 0.8604. Meanwhile, the bearish 50-DMA caps the immediate upside at 0.8622. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat but holds below the midline, which keeps the sellers hopeful. Therefore, a sustained move below the 21-DMA could call for a test of the falling wedge resistance now support at 0.8563. Note that the move higher from the wedge breakout on the daily chart, which appeared earlier this month, ran out of steam near the 0.8715 region. Ever since the price has been on a downtrend. The next relevant support is aligned at 0.8550, the psychological level. EUR/GBP daily chart   On the flip side, recapturing the 50-DMA barrier could expose the 0.8700 mark once again.   A break above which the recent top of 0.8719 could be retested. EUR/GBP additional levels to watch  

China's President Xi says instabilities and uncertainties of the world have significantly increased. Says instabilities and uncertainties of the world

China's President Xi says instabilities and uncertainties of the world have significantly increased. Says instabilities and uncertainties of the world have significantly increased. Says globalisation has shown resilience. Says china and other countries should join hands in coping with the pandemic. China's president Xi says should make the global governance system more equitable and fair. Says rules set by a country or some countries cannot be imposed on others. Says what we need is justice, not hegemony. There has been no reaction in the forex space to these comments.   

AUD/JPY stays bid around 84.20, up 0.30% intraday, following the latest uptick to refresh the weekly top during early Tuesday. The pair recently benef

AUD/JPY refreshes weekly top after mixed RBA minutes, PBOC status-quo.Short-term falling trend channel can test the bulls.Sellers need clear break below 200-HMA for fresh entries.AUD/JPY stays bid around 84.20, up 0.30% intraday, following the latest uptick to refresh the weekly top during early Tuesday. The pair recently benefited from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes as well as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Interest Rate Decision. While the RBA policymakers reiterate worries over the unemployment to keep the monetary policy easy, per the minutes, the PBOC offered no change in the benchmark interest rates. Read: AUD/USD: Mildly bid above 0.7750 despite mixed RBA minutes, PBOC inaction Even so, the pair crosses a downward sloping trend line from Friday, as well as 100-HMA, following the latest events. However, the upper line of an immediate descending trend channel, near 84.30, becomes necessary for the pair’s further upside towards the monthly top near 84.50. In a case where AUD/JPY remains firm beyond 84.50, February’s peak surrounding 84.95 will be the key to watch. Meanwhile, pullback moves below the 84.00 previous resistance confluence will not be an open welcome for AUD/JPY sellers as the support line of the stated channel and 200-HMA, respectively around 83.80 and 73.75, will be the tough nuts to crack for them. AUD/JPY hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

AUD/USD stays well bid near 0.7780, up 0.25% intraday, during early Tuesday. While mild risk-on mood favored the quote initially in Asia, minutes of t

AUD/USD refreshes intraday high following RBA minutes, PBOC rate decision.RBA minutes reiterate dislike for unemployment rate, PBOC leaves interest rates unchanged.Risk-on mood backs the bulls, US dollar consolidation test further upside.Qualitative catalysts will be in the spotlight amid a light calendar.AUD/USD stays well bid near 0.7780, up 0.25% intraday, during early Tuesday. While mild risk-on mood favored the quote initially in Asia, minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting and the PBOC Interest Rate Decision favored the bulls off-late. As per the latest RBA minutes, the board members remain committed to doing what it reasonably can do to support Australian economy while citing the need for "highly supportive" monetary conditions. Read: RBA Minutes: No hurry to tighten policy settings Further, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) matches wide market expectations of keeping the benchmark rates unchanged. That said, the PBOC keeps one-year and five-year around 3.85% and 4.65% respectively during the latest monetary policy meeting. Read: PBOC keeps one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.85% Market sentiment dwindles amid headlines concerning Russia, China and the coronavirus (COVID-19). While geopolitical fears emanating from Kremlin and Beijing test the bulls, mixed concerns on covid join US President Joe Biden’s readiness to alter some parts of his $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending to favor the optimists. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains after stepping back from the record top the previous day. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firm at around 1.60% whereas the US dollar index (DXY) consolidate the heaviest drop in 2021 with a corrective pullback to 91.10. Given the initial market reaction to the day’s key events in Asia, AUD/USD pair traders may have to keep their eyes on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse. Herein, comments from China's President Xi Jinping will be important as he will be addressing a forum on global risks and might convey the Washington-Beijing tussles over there. Technical analysis Multiple tops around 0.7800, marked since early January, test AUD/USD buyers cheering sustained trading beyond the 50-day SMA level of 0.7720.  

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision unchanged at 3.85%

The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its April meeting has been released. Traders will be looking for them to provide colour on recent economi

The Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its April meeting has been released. Traders will be looking for them to provide colour on recent economic developments that have surprised to the upside and supported AUD in recent weeks.  Key notes - RBA MINUTES: BOARD REMAINS COMMITTED TO DOING WHAT IT REASONABLY CAN TO SUPPORT AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: BOARD WOULD MAINTAIN "HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE" MONETARY CONDITIONS UNTIL EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION GOALS WERE ACHIEVED 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES DOES NOT EXPECT TO REACH TARGETS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT, INFLATION UNTIL 2024 AT THE EARLIEST 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: BOARD WOULD MAINTAIN CASH RATE AT 10 BPS FOR "AS LONG AS NECESSARY" 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: WILL NOT RAISE CASH RATE UNTIL ACTUAL INFLATION IS SUSTAINABLY IN 2-3% TARGET BAND 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: BOARD REMAINS COMMITTED TO THREE-YEAR YIELD TARGET OF 10 BPS 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: BOARD PREPARED TO UNDERTAKE FURTHER BOND PURCHASES, BEYOND A$200 BLN ANNOUNCED, IF IT WOULD ASSIST WITH PROGRESS TOWARDS ITS GOALS 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: WOULD CONSIDER EXTENDING LOW-COST FUNDING FACILITY FOR BANKS IF THERE WERE MARKED DETERIORATION IN FUNDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS. NO SUCH SIGNS CURRENTLY. 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: WAGE, PRICE PRESSURES REMAIN SUBDUED, EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR SEVERAL YEARS 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: DEMAND FOR NEW BUSINESS LOANS REMAINED SUBDUED 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: "CAREFULLY" MONITORING TRENDS IN HOUSING BORROWING, MORTGAGE LENDING STANDARDS AS HOUSE PRICES SURGE 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: MARKET CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED OVER THE PRIOR MONTH, IN PART OWING TO BANK'S BOND PURCHASES 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES : A$ HAS DEPRECIATED FROM RECENT HIGHS TO BE BACK AROUND LEVELS AT THE TURN OF THE YEAR 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: PRELIMINARY DATA SUGGESTS MARCH QTR GDP WAS LIKELY TO HAVE RECOVERED FURTHER TO AROUND PRE-PANDEMIC LEVEL, EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: ROLL OUT OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT PROGRAMMES OVER H1 2021 WOULD BE SLOWER THAN FORESHADOWED IN STATE BUDGETS 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: REDUCED UNCERTAINTY, HIGHER NET WEALTH TO SUPPORT HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION RECOVERY 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: EMPLOYMENT HAD RETURNED TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS "CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN EXPECTED" 19-Apr-2021 19:30:02 - RBA MINUTES: LIKELY FULL EFFECT OF END OF GOVERNMENT'S WAGE SUBSIDY PROGRAMME -'JOBKEEPER' - WOULD BECOME APPARENT OVER SEVERAL MONTHS More to come... Description of the minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is out with the latest statement, announcing that it has maintained the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.85% for

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is out with the latest statement, announcing that it has maintained the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.85% for the 12th straight month at its April fixing. Meanwhile, the five-year LPR was also left unchanged at 4.65% in April.  The Chinese central bank’s decision met market expectations. According to the latest Reuters poll, China is expected to keep the one-year LPR steady until the end of 2021.    more to come ...

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.5103 (est 6.5080; prev 6.5233) About the fix China maintains stri

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.5103 (est 6.5080; prev 6.5233) About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. CNY differs from its offshore yuan, or CNH, which is not as tightly controlled as the onshore yuan. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.  

Bank of Japan governor Haruhik Kuroda has said, ''we are not at stage to debate exit from our ETF buying.'' Additionally, he stated, ''when we unload

Bank of Japan governor Haruhik Kuroda has said, ''we are not at stage to debate exit from our ETF buying.'' Additionally, he stated, ''when we unload our ETF buying, we will decide on guidelines at a policy-setting meeting,'' and, ''when we unload our ETF holdings, we will do so in a way that minimises market disruption, avoid losses as much as possible.'' In earlier news, Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan will consider slashing this fiscal year's inflation forecast in quarterly forecasts due out at its policy meeting on April 26-27. ''The downgrade will reflect the impact of cuts in cellphone charge fees, which analysts say could push down core consumer inflation by around 0.2 percentage point. The central bank is also seen projecting inflation to hover around 1% in fiscal 2023, the paper said without citing sources. The BOJ currently expects core consumer prices to rise 0.5% in the year that began in April.'' Meanwhile, Japan's economy minister says he feels a sense of crisis over virus spread. There has been no market reaction to the headlines yet the greenback is still under pressure which is seeing USD/JPY print fresh 6-weeks lows in Tokyo on Tuesday. 

WTI prints mild gains while picking up bids near $63.60 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark bounced off an ascending support line, pr

WTI stays firmer while keeping the bounce off previous resistance line.Receding bearish bias of MACD, sustained trading beyond 200-SMA favor bulls.WTI prints mild gains while picking up bids near $63.60 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The energy benchmark bounced off an ascending support line, previous resistance, from March 22 the previous day. In doing so, the quote remains above 200-SMA amid the receding bearish bias of MACD signals. However, a clear break above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March 08-23 downside, around $63.80 tests the WTI bulls off-late. It’s worth mentioning that the black gold’s ability to stay past $63.80 needs validation from the $64.00 threshold before eyeing the March 17 top near $65.40 and the mid-March peak surrounding $66.45. Meanwhile, pullback moves below the stated support line near $62.70 may dwindle around 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $62.55 and 200-SMA, around 62.00 by the press time. Overall, WTI is on the bullish trajectory towards the previous month’s top near $67.85. WTI four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

The price of gold is on the backfoot despite a weaker US dollar at the start of this week and the prospects are for a significant correction to the do

Gold is meeting a wall of resistance at the start of the week. Bears eye a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the confluence of old resistance. The price of gold is on the backfoot despite a weaker US dollar at the start of this week and the prospects are for a significant correction to the downside.  Failures at resistance have so far proven to draw in additional bearish flows and speculative shorts.  Gold, daily chart The bulls are facing a wall of resistance and the price could be drawn to a restest of the prior support and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.  Bears can engage from below hourly resistance. Gold, hourly chart Bears are in control below the hourly resistance after making a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest bearish impulse. 

GBP/JPY picks up bids near 151.20, down 0.06% intraday, as markets in Tokyo open for Tuesday’s trading. The pair earlier pulled back from two-week top

GBP/JPY bounces off intraday low, trims mild losses from two-week top.Risks benefit from economic recovery hopes, Biden’s readiness to aler spending plan.Chatters surrounding China, Russia and covid strains test the bulls.Japan’s Tertiary Index for February, UK employment for March becomes the key.GBP/JPY picks up bids near 151.20, down 0.06% intraday, as markets in Tokyo open for Tuesday’s trading. The pair earlier pulled back from two-week tops before bouncing off 151.08 the latest. It’s worth mentioning that the market optimism backed the quote during the previous two days. While chatters surrounding the BOJ’s readiness to alter inflation targets in the upcoming meet favor JPY sellers, amid hopes of further stimulus, headlines from the US Senate become the key. US President Joe Biden finally realized the fears looming over his $2.25 trillion bill and stepped back to compromise on certain key issues like taxes. Also on the risk-positive side were the faster covid vaccinations in the UK, Israel and the US while unlock optimism in Britain favor GBP/JPY bulls. Alternatively, fears of covid strains and escalation infections in Europe and Asia challenge the optimism. Further, Russia-Ukrain tussle joins the Sino-American tension to weigh on the risk-on mood. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.15% after stepping back from the record top the previous day. Though, Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 1.73% amid virus woes in Tokyo and surrounding prefectures Looking forward, risk catalysts will be the key ahead of Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index, prior -1.7% MoM, as well as the UK’s employment figures for March. Among them, the headline, Claimant Count Change may ease to 24.5K from 86.6K whereas the Unemployment rate can rise to 5.1% versus 5.0%. Technical analysis Although GBP/JPY sellers may resist entries above 50-day SMA, near 149.90, bulls need a clear break above 152.20-30 area to keep the reins.  

GBP/USD takes the bids to refresh the highest level in a month around 1.3994, up 0.06% intraday, amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cable

GBP/USD bulls refrain from catching a breather after rising the most since January 12.A seven-week-old horizontal area tests further upside, early-month tops offer immediate support during pullback.Strong RSI suggests further rise but the key hurdle needs to be break for bullish confirmation.GBP/USD takes the bids to refresh the highest level in a month around 1.3994, up 0.06% intraday, amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cable rises for the seventh consecutive day, needless to mention the previous day’s heaviest run-up in over three months. Traders seem to wait for the UK’s employment figures for March for fresh impulse. Forecasts suggest the headline Claimant Count Change to ease from 86.6K to 25.5K whereas the Unemployment Rate may tick-up to 5.1% versus 5.0% prior. Although strong RSI and sustained trading above 100-day SMA favor GBP/USD bulls, a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since early March, around 1.4000–10 will challenge the quote’s further upside. Should the sterling buyers manage to cross the 1.4010 hurdle, the 1.4110 level may offer an intermediate halt during the rally targeting the yearly top of 1.4243. Meanwhile, pullback moves may recall the 1.3920-15 area back to the chart. However, 100-day SMA and lows marked since March 24, respectively around 1.3720 and 1.3670, will be tough challenges for the GBP/USD sellers before taking entries. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish 

USD/JPY is trading at 108.03 at the time of writing, down some 0.1% in a downside extension of the overnight rout in the greenback for a six week low.

USD/JPY break to fresh lows in Tokyo as the greenback stays out of favour.Bank of Japan will consider slashing this fiscal year's inflation forecast in quarterly forecasts.USD/JPY is trading at 108.03 at the time of writing, down some 0.1% in a downside extension of the overnight rout in the greenback for a six week low. Despite the stabilisation in US yields, the US dollar was sold off heavily in European trade. The DXY ended lower by nearly 0.6% in a slide from 91.7460 to a fresh six-week low of 91.0340. US treasuries yields were slightly higher as investors considered the impacts of last week’s rally. The 2-year government bond yields remained at 0.16%, and 10-year government bond yields climbed to 1.60%. Improved risk sentiment last week as shown by the rally in global stocks to record highs has continued to weigh on both the greenback. Markets are in a period of consolidation ahead of the Federal Reserve during the media blackout period which might help to explain the disjointed intermarket associations at the start of the week as investors reshuffle their portfolios.  BoJ noise Meanwhile, which is slightly yen negative, ''the Bank of Japan will consider slashing this fiscal year's inflation forecast in quarterly forecasts due out at its policy meeting on April 26-27, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday,'' Reuters reported. ''The downgrade will reflect the impact of cuts in cellphone charge fees, which analysts say could push down core consumer inflation by around 0.2 percentage point. The central bank is also seen projecting inflation to hover around 1% in fiscal 2023, the paper said without citing sources. The BOJ currently expects core consumer prices to rise 0.5% in the year that began in April.''      

NZD/USD refreshes intraday high to 0.7190, up 0.08% on a day, amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the kiwi pair stays firm around the highest s

NZD/USD takes rounds to one-month top, recently taking bids.US dollar weakness favored bulls earlier, S&P 500 Futures favor the run-up off-late.RBA minutes, PBOC rate decision and risk headlines should be watched for fresh impulse.NZD/USD refreshes intraday high to 0.7190, up 0.08% on a day, amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the kiwi pair stays firm around the highest since March 18 after rising the most in a week the previous day. US dollar weakness could be traced to the quote’s notable rise. The greenback dropped the most in 2021 on Monday as traders rushed back towards Treasuries. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields rose 3.2 basis points (bps) to 1.61% at the week’s start. It should, however, be noted that the Wall Street benchmarks failed to keep Friday’s gains as challenges to technology shares and a deadlock over US President Joe Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending plan disappointed equity bulls. Additionally, the coronavirus (COVID-19) fears in Europe and Asia join the geopolitical fears concerning China and Russia also weigh on the market sentiment as well as on the NZD/USD prices. However, the recent chatters, backed by Reuters, suggested US President Joe Biden’s readiness to compromise on the spending plan join vaccine optimism in American to favor the risk-on mood amid a light calendar. It’s worth mentioning that the Australia-New Zealand border opening also contributed to the pair’s rise but cautious comments by PM Jacinda Ardern seem to test the bulls. Looking forward, RBA minutes may keep the bulls hopeful with its anticipated economic optimism. Further, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is also expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged but may convey upbeat comments due to the latest positive numbers from home, which in turn may help NZD/USD to stay firmer. Though, challenges to the risk may trigger the US dollar’s corrective pullback and tame the kiwi pair’s gains. Technical analysis Unless crossing the 0.7200 threshold, comprising a seven-week-old falling resistance line, NZD/USD may not avoid pullback towards a 50-day EMA level of 0.7120.  

DXY breached a significant daily support structure, despite a firmer bid in US yields. Despite the equity weakness, the US 10-year yield rose 2.8bps t

The white metal under pressure on Monday despite the drop in the greenback and weakness in US stocks.DXY ended lower by nearly 0.6% in a slide from 91.7460 to a fresh six-week low of 91.0340.DXY breached a significant daily support structure, despite a firmer bid in US yields. Despite the equity weakness, the US 10-year yield rose 2.8bps to 1.608%.  However, improved risk sentiment last week as shown by the rally in global stocks to record highs has continued to weigh on both the greenback Precious metals were unable to collect investor’s interest and XAG/USD was closing down some 0.5%. The gold to silver ratio also rallied over 0.2%.  However, there was a good move in industrial metals, so silver could find itself playing catch up in the forthcoming sessions. Both copper and iron ore rallied on the day and the commodity complex, in general, was better bid despite markets being on the defensive in the main.  Copper was hitting a seven-week high amid prospects of strong demand. ''Recent robust economic data in China and the US has boosted optimism that demand will continue to recover following the pandemic-induced slowdown last year. The market has also been buoyed by the infrastructure spending program US President Biden is looking to implement,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. Also worth noting, the MSCI's emerging market currency index hit its highest level in a month. Top emerging markets tend to have positive correlations to commodities and the price of silver.  Silver technical analysis Silver prices have stalled at daily resistance and in the day’s move to the downside, it has subsequently formed a new 4-hour resistance at 25.91. Supply would be anticipated to reemerge there and result in a deeper bearish retracement towards the early April highs and a confluence with the 50% mean reversion level of the latest bullish daily impulse at 25.50. Daily chart  

EUR/USD buyers catch a breather around 1.2040, after rising the most in two weeks, during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote keeps the pr

EUR/USD stays on the front foot, recently inactive, near seven-week top.100-day SMA tests the upside break of the key resistance line, now support.Bullish MACD, sustained trading above 200-day SMA favor buyers.EUR/USD buyers catch a breather around 1.2040, after rising the most in two weeks, during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote keeps the previous day’s upside break of a descending trend line from January 06, also staying above the 200-day SMA, amid the bullish MACD signals. However, 100-day SMA around 1.2060 tests the major currency pair’s latest run-up, a break of which will highlight March’s top of 1.2133 and late January peak surrounding 1.2190 for the EUR/USD bulls. Given the strong MACD signals and the quote’s ability to trade successfully beyond 200-day SMA, EUR/USD prices are likely to remain firm before hitting February’s top near 1.2245. Alternatively, pullback moves below the immediate support line, previous resistance, surrounding 1.2015 will recall the mid-March tops near 1.1990 to the chart. However, EUR/USD sellers are less expected to take fresh entries until witnessing a daily closing below the 200-day SMA level of 1.1920. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

As per the start of the week's, Watchlist: A busy week ahead for forex and gold on the charts, NZD/JPY moved in on the initial downside target and has

NZD/JPY bulls stepping in at support for prospects of daily upside extension.Restest of hourly structure presumed to hold and equate to daily bullish momentum. As per the start of the week's, Watchlist: A busy week ahead for forex and gold on the charts, NZD/JPY moved in on the initial downside target and has since established a bullish prospect in the process.  Prior analysis, daily chartThis is jolted the NZD/JPY cross lower towards a support target which would be expected to hold and result in a fresh bullish impulse as follows:Live market, daily chart As illustrated, the price has reached the support target and would now be expected to move higher and break the overhead resistance. Bulls can look for an optimal entry on the lower time frame, such as the 1-hour chart: Bulls can expect the price to take out the near-term resistance and presume that it will act as support on a re-test.  Meanwhile, there are also bullish prospects for NZD/USD: NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls defending the 38.2% Fibo support  

Ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BOC) monetary policy decision, Bank of America (BofA) cites the downside risk for the Canadian dollar. The invest

Ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BOC) monetary policy decision, Bank of America (BofA) cites the downside risk for the Canadian dollar. The investment bank’s latest analytics said, “We expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to present a significantly more constructive outlook for the Canadian economy on 21 April, but without changing its current monetary policy stance: rates at 0.25%, same forward guidance and purchases of at least C$4bn per week.” The US bank also expects the BOC to “announce a roadmap on adjustments to the pace of government bond purchases, to start tapering as soon as in July once it is clearer that the recovery is well underway." Concerning the market reaction, the BofA said, "We believe risks are skewed toward disappointment in the rates and FX market, which is leaning toward taper at this meeting.” “We continue to expect USDCAD to retrace higher to 1.29 in 2Q, as the result of an additional leg of broad-based USD strength, commodity price consolidation and a modest rebuild in the CAD risk premium reflecting moderation in global risk appetite," BofA added to the notes.

Following its pullback from late February tops, gold holds lower ground near $1,770, choppy between $1,770 and $1,772 amid the initial Asian session o

Gold seesaws in a choppy range around $1,770 after stepping back from two-month top.Wall Street closed with losses, US 10-year Treasury yields recovered.Covid fears, uncertainty over US infrastructure spending weigh on risks amid a light calendar.Risk catalysts remain as the key before economic calendar gets heavy.Following its pullback from late February tops, gold holds lower ground near $1,770, choppy between $1,770 and $1,772 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The yellow metal failed to cheer the US dollar’s weakness the previous day as market sentiment worsened during the late North American session. Bulls need more ammunition… Although US President Joe Biden showed readiness to compromise on his $2.25 trillion infrastructure bill, Republicans seem less entertained and so were the markets. On the contrary, a bill to tame the big tech companies weighed on the Wall Street benchmarks and US dollar at the week’s start. Also on the risk-negative side could be the coronavirus (COVID-19) fears emanating from Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the Russian build-up of military near the Ukrainian border also challenged the market sentiment. Alternatively, a light calendar, faster vaccinations in the US, Israel and the UK joined a light calendar to propel the US Treasury yields the most in over a week. Against, the US dollar index (DXY) registered the biggest intraday losses of 2021 the previous day while S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, despite Wall Street losses, by the press time. Moving on, a lack of major data/events in Asia, except for the rate decision of the People’s Bank of China and the RBA’s minutes, will keep gold traders directed towards risk news for fresh impulse. Although the latest escalation in the jabbing joins the economic optimism in the West, the virus strains and geopolitical fears challenge gold buyers amid thin macros. Technical analysis Pullback moves from 100-day EMA, around $1,789, direct gold sellers towards 50-day EMA retest, near $1,759 by the press time.  

Amid rising tensions over Russian military build-up near Ukraine border, European Union’s (EU) top diplomat Josep Borrell cited, per Reuters, the risk

Amid rising tensions over Russian military build-up near Ukraine border, European Union’s (EU) top diplomat Josep Borrell cited, per Reuters, the risk of further escalation in the geopolitical woes. The news also mentioned, “In Washington, the Pentagon said the Russian military build-up was larger than that in 2014 and it was not clear that it was for training purposes.” It was also mentioned that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, after addressing EU foreign ministers, called on the EU to impose new sanctions on Russia. FX implications Despite being a developing story, the news tests market sentiment and could add to the market’s latest risk-off mood. That said, S&P 500 Futures await fresh clues after stepping back from the record top the previous day.

US equity markets couldn’t keep Friday’s upbeat performance as all three benchmarks dropped at the start of the key earnings week. Although upbeat Tre

DJI and Nasdaq 100 drop over 100 points, S&P 500 declines 0.53%.US Senator Josh Hawley introduced “Bust Up Big Tech Act”, dimmed charm IBM’s upbeat earnings.US Treasury yields rally the most in over a week amid vaccine optimism, aftershocks of Friday’s US data.More earnings, covid updates and US Infrastructure spending will be the key.US equity markets couldn’t keep Friday’s upbeat performance as all three benchmarks dropped at the start of the key earnings week. Although upbeat Treasury yields were largely blamed, tech rout and uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending plan also weighed on the risk barometers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI30) dropped 123 points, or 0.36%, by the end of Monday’s trading while Nasdaq shed the most, down 137.58 points or 0.97%, amid tech rout. Further, S&P 500 Futures eased 0.53% from the record top by closing around 4,163.28. US 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.2 basis points (bps) to regain 1.61% level, rising the most since April 04, as markets turn optimistic over the world’s largest economy following Friday’s strong data. Also favoring the yields were chatters over more than 25% of Americans being vaccinated and a reduction in the covid figures. On the negative side were fears of the pandemic in Europe and Asia as new strains keep troubling markets amid slower vaccinations than America and the UK. Elsewhere, US Senator Hawley finally introduced a bill that could crunch the big tech companies and hence weighed on technology shares even as IBM surprises markets with revenue gains. US Republicans stay firm in rejecting the $2.25 infrastructure spending and push for a lesser tax, which in turn circulated rumors over President Biden’s proposal of 24% tax versus 28% earlier backed figure. However, Politico's Melanie Zanona recently tweeted, “At today's White House meeting, Biden told Republicans to come back to him w/ an infrastructure proposal by mid-May. Biden also signaled he'd be willing to come down on the proposed corporate tax rate. But Rs don't want to see a hike; they prefer user fees.” Looking forward, Tuesday’s Netflix earnings will be the key to watch while updates over the virus and infrastructure spending may entertain trades amid a light economic calendar.

AUD/USD picks up bids to 0.7760, following its run-up to refresh the monthly top by 0.7785, amid the early Tuesday morning in Asia. The aussie initial

AUD/USD halts consolidation of Monday’s heavy gains, remains positive off-late.US dollar index drops the heaviest in four months to revisit early March lows.Risk dwindles amid light calendar, mixed updates on covid and US infrastructure spending.PBOC Interest Rate Decision, RBA Minutes to decorate calendar, risk catalysts will be the key.AUD/USD picks up bids to 0.7760, following its run-up to refresh the monthly top by 0.7785, amid the early Tuesday morning in Asia. The aussie initially benefited from the US dollar weakness and the run-up in equities before trimming the intraday gains over Wall Street’s pullback over a light calendar and thin macros off-late. Greenback weakness is the key... With the US dollar index (DXY) marking the heaviest losses since December 17, AUD/USD bulls ignore an absence of major catalysts to portray an uptrend. The run-up might have taken clues from the US Treasury yields, up 3.7 basis points (bps) to 1.61% by the end of Monday’s North American session. However, Wall Street’s negative closing depresses the market optimists. While a long queue of the earnings report and the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes weigh on the risks, recently picking up vaccinations and hopes of breaking the deadlock over US President Joe Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending plan favor the sentiment. Additionally, the opening of the Australia-New Zealand travel restrictions add to the risk-on mood but the Oz nations are cautious over the moves amid the latest virus strains and slow jabbing in Europe and Asia. It’s worth mentioning that an impressive hike in Australia’s HIA New Home Sales for March, worth around 90.3% versus 22.9% prior, also backed the AUD/USD buyers. Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks fail to keep the initial run-up towards Friday’s record tops, needless to mention the negative daily closing. Commodities also flashed mixed signals as crude oil gained but gold eased. Looking forward, RBA minutes may unveil the Aussie central bank’s optimism after the latest upside surprises into the key economics. However, the policymakers remain divided over their employment view, amid mixed readings, which in turn can test the AUD/USD upside. Also, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to keep one-year and five-year benchmark interest rates unchanged, respectively around 3.85% and 4.65%. However, policy guidance will be the key to follow for fresh impulse. It should be noted that the chatters over levying fresh rules on tech shares, which are considered negative, join uncertainty concerning US President Biden’s economic relief plan and covid to tame the AUD/USD bulls. Technical analysis Sustained trading beyond the 50-day SMA level of 0.7720 favors the AUD/USD bulls to eye the 0.7800 threshold during the further upside. However, multiple tops around 0.7800, marked since early January, can test the buyers afterward.  
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