Bảng Tin tức Forex

Chủ nhật, Tháng mười hai 8, 2019

USD/JPY is set to open in a favourable environment for the bulls in Asia following a solid close on Wall Street. The early indications have USD/JPY ar

USD/JPY bulls squeezed back fro the 200-DMA on Friday, despite risk-positive markets. US NFPs beat expectations and US yield and stocks respond in-kind.Week ahead brings a focus on the Fed and critical US data events. USD/JPY is set to open in a favourable environment for the bulls in Asia following a solid close on Wall Street. The early indications have USD/JPY around 108.60, this follows a close of 108.55, (-0.18%), with the pair ravelling from a high of 108.92 to a low of 108.58.  The bulls were squeezed on Friday, despite a solid US nonfarm Payrolls report and subsequent positive closes for the US benchmarks. The less committed bulls were bailing out at the 200-day moving average following an initial surge on the jobs data. Subsequent selling ensued below the 21-hour moving average to test a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 4th & 5th December swing low and high in the 108.50s.  Considering the US yield on the 10-year US Treasury was closing 2.6bp higher at 1.836%, the pair would be expected to hold-up and follow suit, moving in-kind with the positive closes in US indices, (S&P index, +0.91%, NASDAQ index, +1.0% and Dow industrial average, +1.22%). Casting eyes over the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, the data flow was upbeat and certainly a relief considering the downturn in US manufacturing PMIs of late. Firstly, the headline for November was a huge beat, advancing by 266k against expectations for a +180k read from 156k in the month prior. It was good to see Manufacturing jobs rebounding strongly, adding 54k jobs for the month. Additionally, the US unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% to the lowest since 1969. Average hourly earnings were a slight disappointment though, rising by just 0.2% in November which was coming in slightly below the 0.3% rise expected.
"All in, the trend in job gains has remained solid despite the global uncertainties that remain in the horizon, and appears to have sufficient oomph to continue to absorb new entrants into the labour force,"
analysts at TD Securities explained.  The week ahead with a focus on US data, the Fed and trade Looking ahead fo the week, the Federal Open Market Committee concludes this month's meeting on Wednesday in the US. Additionally, markets will be looking to both US Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index surveys for direction in the US dollar.  Trade will also remain a critical factor for markets ahead of the December 15th deadline which is fast approaching – a date where tariffs on Chinese imports are scheduled to kick-in, potentially rocking the apple cart with respect to Sino/US trade negotiations and subsequently upsetting market sentiment into the year-end – a likely factor contributing weakness in the US dollar and a bid in the yen.  USD/JPY levels In the shorter term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair has settled below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading south below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength but remain within negative levels. Further declines are to be expected on a break below 108.40, the immediate support. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explains.USD/JPY Forecast: Sellers around 109.00 continue to cap advances 

With just days until the vote, Labour has tightened the gap according to polls ComRes and Deltapoll, although the bellwether YouGov poll and the marke

Weekend UK polls have the Tory party in the lead, potentially supporting GBP in the open.Labour has tightened the gap according to minor polls. GBP/USD gaining traction on key UK election week, uncertainty prevails. With just days until the vote, Labour has tightened the gap according to polls ComRes and Deltapoll, although the bellwether YouGov poll and the markets go-to indicator is that the Tory party lead has extended by a point in a significant lead. For GBP, this could lay down the foundations for a bullish case a the start of this week. The British currency is gaining traction and is loved by the markets leading into these elections with a Tory victory increasingly being priced in with the latest CFTC commitments of traders GBP report showing that shorts have been trimmed by 7,000 – (30K vs 37K short last week).  UK election and GBP uncertainty prevails  However, uncertainty will prevail and it should be noted that even if the polls prove perfectly accurate, because of the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system there may be a significant discrepancy between the national share of the vote received by the parties and the number of seats allotted to them in the House of Commons. For instance, the day prior to the  2017 general elections while the majority of the most pollsters had marked-up Conservative majority, in some cases of as many as 82 seats, the Conservative party actually failed to achieve a majority. Anything fewer than 340 seats (out of 650) would point to continued instability in UK politics and in GBP/USD as party hard-liners pull the government in opposite directions. Fewer than 312 Conservative seats risks a Labour-led government. "Should the Conservative party gain a majority (as the latest polls suggest), we expect GBP/USD to move into 1.34-35 area. A large Conservative party majority is to have a more positive effect on GBP than a thin majority as the latter would raise concerns about the extension of the transition period beyond 2020 (which we see as necessary)." Analysts at ING bank argued.  GBP/USD technical outlookChart of the week: GBP/USD bulls target closes above critical 1.3160/90 on UK election week 

US Nonfarm Payrolls have kicked markets into gear ahead of series of critical events for the week ahead. On Friday, the November jobs data from the Un

The week ahead brings three major events n the Fed, ECB and UK elections.Markets expect a steady hand from a data-dependent Fed with rate cuts expected for first half of 2020. UK elections will be the major focus in European markets with the Tories expected to win subsequently supporting GBP.ECB not likely to change policy with quantitative easing just being reintroduced this quarter.US Nonfarm Payrolls have kicked markets into gear ahead of series of critical events for the week ahead. On Friday, the November jobs data from the United States came to the US dollar's rescue against an otherwise contemptible backdrop for the currency. The Nonfarm Payrolls impressed with a headline of 266K which was well above the 183K estimated – a stark reminder that and well  ADP report is simply not a dependable prelude. The headline was also complemented by upward revisions to prior months which added a further 41K to payrolls. The secondary details were not bad either with the average hourly earnings for the year climbing by 3.1% while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and below the estimated 3.6%.  All told, the employment data supports the Fed’s stance of taking a pause in its easing cycle, especially following the PMI comeback in China - However, the jury is certainly still out on whether that any of these numbers signify a sustainable rebound as we head over to 2020. Indeed, both ISM indices in the US are not looking so pretty (ISM manufacturing index has been in contraction for four consecutive months) and uncertainty will likely fester into the closing weeks of the year.  A data-dependent US Federal Reserve to hold  As we move forward, looking ahead for the week, expectations are that US Federal Reserve will keep policy and rates steady at 1.50-1.75% which will officially bring the mid-cycle adjustment that started in July to an end while a "material reassessment" in the outlook is a precondition for the central bank.  However,  a sub-consensus growth of 1.4% in the US is enough to expect the Fed to cut rates again in the first half of 2020 which likely will be a thorn in the side for the US dollar bulls. Chair Powell should re-emphasise the data-dependent approach of the committee.  UK data to be pushed aside with a focus on the UK elections Other key data events for the US will be Headline CPI and Retail Sales. The expected outcome for retail sales to advance 0.3% MoM and headline inflation to increase by 0.2% MoM and similar 0.2% increase in core prices would lead to an unchanged annual rate at 2.3% – not enough to materially impact the US dollar but nonetheless underpin a steady hand from the Fed.  Rather, the attention for the week ahead will likely be with events across the pond in major European developments. Firstly, UK Voters will finally head to the polls, yet again. A relatively stable 10-point Conservative lead is expected to once and for all but the Brexit uncertainty to bed considering a stable Conservative majority should lead to a withdrawal deal between the UK and EU being implemented. However, anything fewer than 340 seats (out of 650) would point to continued instability in UK politics for 2020.as party hard-liners pull the government in opposite directions. Less than 312 Conservative seats risks a Labour-led government.  "Should the Conservative party gain a majority (as the latest polls suggest), we expect GBP/USD to move into 1.34-35 area," analysts at ING Bank explained. "A large Conservative party majority is to have a more positive effect on GBP than a thin majority as the latter would raise concerns about the extension of the transition period beyond 2020 (which we see as necessary),"  Conversely, the analysts argued, a hung Parliament outcome would lead to a full pricing out of the GBP Brexit resolution premium, a re-building of sterling speculative shorts and GBP/USD likely dropping to the 1.28 level. " Regarding the GBP reaction timeline, the first exit poll should be out at 10pm UK Time on Thu, with more clarity on the key battlefield seats to come early Friday morning (2-3am UK Time). In the face of the elections, all else gets pushed to the sidelines for the time being, including October Industrial and Manufacturing Production. Christine Lagarde's first ECB will hopefully shed light on her preference on ECB's strategic review Across the channel, a focus will be with the European Central Bank and Christine Lagarde's first a the helm. No change to policy is to be expected, with the eurozone's growth data having stabilised for now, especially with quantitative easing just being reintroduced this quarter. However, new ECB staff projections will be published with both CPI and growth projections for 2020 lowered (and 2022 projections newly revealed). Keenly, traders will be looking out for any clarity that might be taken from Lagarde’s preference on the ECB strategic review. 

China's trade surplus narrowed to $38.73 billion in November from $42.81 billion in October, data published by China's General Administration of Custo

China's trade surplus narrowed to $38.73 billion in November from $42.81 billion in October, data published by China's General Administration of Customs revealed on Sunday.  Further details of the publication showed that exports in November declined by 1.1% on a yearly basis to miss the market expectation for an increase of 1% and imports rose by 0.3% following October's 6.4% decline.  One week to go until the United States hikes tariffs on Chinese imports, investors will remain focused on the US-China trade dispute. Earlier last week, US President Trump noted that a deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 election but on Thursday reiterated trade talks were "moving right along" to confuse markets. 

Here is what you need to know Monday, December 9th: An upbeat US employment report and a better-than-anticipated Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey b

Here is what you need to know  Monday, December 9th:  An upbeat US employment report and a better-than-anticipated Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey boosted the USD on Friday, although its gains were moderated and uneven across the FX board.  US data released earlier in the week triggered concerns about the country’s economic health, keeping  the dollar’s gains at check. The US is scheduled to apply more tariffs on China next December 15, and the market fears that, if phase one of a trade deal is not signed this week, the trade war will escalate further, affecting the global economy. The EUR/USD pair held between the 1.10/1.11 range, still struggling for direction. The upside remains capped by dismal EU data signaling steepening economic slowdown entering Q4. The GBP/USD pair held on to gains, trading at multi-month highs amid hopes UK PM Johnson will win the upcoming election and be able to pass his Brexit deal through the Parliament. The latest polls released during the weekend showed that Conservatives’ lead remains stable at 10 points. Elections this Thursday will likely unwind large move in GBP crosses. Wall Street rallied on Friday, trimming all of its weekly losses. US Treasury yields bounced and posted modest weekly gains, underpinned by a robust US employment report. Gold collapsed on renewed dollar demand, but the Japanese yen remained strong and settled against its American rival near its weekly high, somehow reflecting market’s caution. Crude oil prices hit fresh multi-month highs after the OPEC+ decided to deepen cut by 500K b/d for a total adjustment of 1.7 million b/d.  Also, the Baker Hughes report showed that US active drilling rigs declined to 663 from 668 last week. Cryptocurrencies held within familiar levels throughout the weekend, with the market’s action subdued. BTC/USD stable around $7,500. 

China Trade Balance USD below forecasts ($46.3B) in November: Actual ($38.73B)

China Imports (YoY) above expectations (-1.8%) in November: Actual (0.3%)

China Exports (YoY) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (1%) in November

China Exports (YoY) CNY registered at 1.3%, below expectations (3.1%) in November

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