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پنجشنبه، 7 ژوئیه، 2022

Recession fears will continue lingering, as the US Fed remains on track for an aggressive tightening path to fight raging inflation. Meanwhile, concer

Gold Price sees a dead cat bounce before the next downside kicks in. Hawkish FOMC minutes and recession fears to keep the USD buoyed. XAU bulls face a wall of resistance while support levels appear weak. Recession fears will continue lingering, as the US Fed remains on track for an aggressive tightening path to fight raging inflation. Meanwhile, concerns over renewed covid lockdowns in China and Japan could also accentuate economic slowdown worries. In times of market unrest and panic, the US dollar remains the go-to safety net, which will keep the USD-priced Gold under immense selling pressure. Any temporary reprieve in the bright metal could be viewed as a good selling opportunity, especially with investors awaiting the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls for fresh bets on the Fed rate hike expectations. The FOMC Minutes on Wednesday revealed that the Fed sees a ‘more restrictive’ policy as likely, as they remain concerned that inflation will become more entrenched. Also read: Still more inflation expectations nonsense in the latest Fed minutesGold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluence Detector shows that Gold Price is looking to regain the strong resistance at $1,749 on its road to recovery. That level is the confluence of the SMA5 four-hour and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day. Acceptance above the latter will put the pivot point one-month S2 at $1,754 under threat. Further up, the confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and the pivot point one-week S2 around $1,757 will hold the guard. The last line of defense for XAU sellers appears at SMA10 four-hour at $1,762. On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day at $1,742, below which the previous low four-hour at $1,736 will be tested. Selling resurgence will threaten the previous day’s low at $1,732, opening floors towards the pivot point one-week S3 at $1,727. Here is how it looks on the tool  About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Copper price, as per the COMEX Futures, has given an upside break of the consolidation range of $3.27-3.46 formed in the past two trading sessions. Th

Copper prices are expected to extend their gains after overstepping the critical hurdle of $3.50.The asset is aiming higher despite the accelerating lockdown fears in China.The arrival of the monsoon in Asia is not impacting the copper bulls.Copper price, as per the COMEX Futures, has given an upside break of the consolidation range of $3.27-3.46 formed in the past two trading sessions. The base metal futures have displayed a sheer upside to near the psychological resistance of $3.50 and are expected to display more gains after establishing above the same. The asset is scaling higher despite the escalating lockdown fears in China. The resurgence of Covid-19 is indicating a halt in economic activities. The restrictions on the movement of men, materials, and machines will result in lower production activities and also lower demand for durable goods. Therefore, the demand for copper will fall significantly and may face barricades on elevated levels. On the demand side, China announced a state infrastructure investment fund that would be worth the Chinese Yuan (CNY) 500 billion ($74.69 billion) to boost infrastructure spending and to bring a revival to the flagging economy, as per Reuters. The usage of copper in infrastructure building remains extremely high and higher infrastructure development in the Chinese economy will spurt the demand for copper. Meanwhile, investors are worried about the arrival of the monsoon in Asia. The demand for base metals slips firmly in monsoon as construction activities and real estate development get halted.   On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is facing a mild correction after printing a high of 107.24. This has also supported the copper bulls. A slippage in the DXY has underpinned the risk-on impulse for a while.      

US ADP Employment Change, Brexit headlines and UK’s political news will be crucial to watch for fresh impulse. GBP/USD grinds higher around the intrad

GBP/USD snaps two-day downtrend at the lowest levels since March 2020.UK PM Johnson refrains from stepping down despite political push, slew of Tory resignations.EU’s Šefčovič rejects the UK’s NIP efforts, inversion of the yield curve highlights recession fears.US ADP Employment Change, Brexit headlines and UK’s political news will be crucial to watch for fresh impulse.GBP/USD grinds higher around the intraday top near 1.1950, snapping a two-day downtrend at the lowest levels since 2020. The cable pair’s latest strength could be linked to the UK’s political and Brexit problems. However, the recent pullback in the US dollar appears to challenge the pair sellers during Thursday’s sluggish Asian session. Despite witnessing over 30 resignations, including key personnel like Health Minister and Chancellor, UK PM Boris Johnson failed to accept the Tory backbenchers’ push to leave the position. Recently, Michael Gove, one of the most senior ministers in the British government, earlier told Prime Minister Boris Johnson he must quit.  Elsewhere, EU Commissioner for Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight Maroš Šefčovič said on Wednesday that the UK bill on altering the Northern Ireland Protocol is unacceptable. It should be noted that UK PM Johnson is widely talked to have Brexit power that saved his positions multiple times and can do during these turbulent times. It should be noted that the yield curve inversion, a condition where near-term bond yields are higher than the longer-dated ones, appears to highlight the recession fears. That said, the 2-year bond coupon retreats to 2.96% while showing the inverse gap with the 10-year yields and hints at the global recession. On the same line, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” Also exerting downside pressure on the GBP/USD prices were the FOMC Minutes that signaled the Fed policymakers’ readiness to do more to tame inflation. On the other hand, the softer US data could be linked to the recently easy US Dollar Index (DXY), down 0.10% around 107.00. The greenback gauge jumped to the highest in 20 years the previous day amid the market’s rush to risk safety. US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury yields fade the previous day’s recovery from the monthly low whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time. Having witnessed a mild short-covering, GBP/USD traders need more clues to extend the latest moves, which in turn highlight the UK’s political updates and the recession news for clear directions. Also important to watch is the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior. Also read: ADP Net Employment Change June Preview: Can employment stave off a recession? Technical analysis Oversold RSI (14) joins a two-month-old support line, near 1.1765, to restrict short-term GBP/USD downside. The corrective pullback, however, needs to cross the monthly resistance line, near 1.2090 by the press time, to recall the buyers.  

USD/INR remains defensive above 79.00, after reversing from the record high the previous day, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes. That said

USD/INR remains pressured inside a bullish chart pattern after reversing from all-time high.RBI takes measures to boost USD inflow, tame current account deficit.Reuters’ poll signals 33% of respondents favor 80.00 level, no respite for India’s rupee.US ADP Employment Change, economic slowdown chatters eyed for fresh impulse.USD/INR remains defensive above 79.00, after reversing from the record high the previous day, as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes. That said, the US dollar pullback and sluggish markets also challenge the recent USD/INR moves during Thursday’s Asian session. “India's central bank took a slew of measures on Wednesday to boost foreign exchange inflows, including allowing overseas investors to buy short-term corporate debt and opening of more government securities under the fully accessible route,” said Reuters. The news also mentioned that the steps came after the Reserve Bank of India's foreign exchange reserves fell by more than $40 billion over the past nine months, largely due to the RBI's intervention in the currency market to cap rupee losses. Elsewhere, a Reuters poll stated India's rupee will trade near its historic low in three months, battered by widening trade and current account deficits. The July 1-6 poll of over 40 foreign exchange analysts also mentioned that nearly one in three analysts expected it to weaken to 80 per dollar by September. It’s worth noting that the recent rebound in oil prices, from a 12-week low, joins the market’s recession fears to keep USD/INR buyers hopeful. That said, WTI crude oil prices eyes to regain the $100.00 level, around $96.60 by the press time. In doing so, the black gold ignores the market’s fears of economic slowdown and a build in the US inventories, as per the weekly oil stockpile data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Moving on, the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior, will be important to watch as it becomes the early signal for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Technical analysis USD/INR stays inside a weekly ascending trend channel amid a steady RSI (14). However, bearish MACD signals challenge the buyers. That said, the 50-SMA level of 78.93 adds to the immediate downside filters, other than the stated channel’s support line near 78.95. Even if the quote drops below 78.95, a convergence of the monthly support line and early June’s swing high could test the pair sellers around 78.40. Alternatively, 79.10 and the aforementioned channel’s upper line, near 79.45 could challenge USD/INR buyers on their way to refreshing the record high with the 80.00 threshold. USD/INR: Four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

The EUR/USD pair has attracted some bids after sensing exhaustion signals near 1.01610. A dead cat bounce is supporting the shared currency bulls and

EUR/USD is attempting to extend its recovery above 1.0200 as investors expect a downbeat US NFP.A preliminary estimate for the US NFP is 270k, lower than the prior print of 390k.Stable Average Hourly Earnings in the US may hurt the paychecks of the households.The EUR/USD pair has attracted some bids after sensing exhaustion signals near 1.01610. A dead cat bounce is supporting the shared currency bulls and now the same are attempting to extend their recovery above 1.0200. The asset has rebounded modestly as the US dollar index (DXY) is facing the corrective phase after printing a fresh 19-year high at 107.24 on Wednesday. The DXY has surrendered the critical support of 107.00. The DXY witnessed decent attention on Wednesday after the release of the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Only one FOMC member was not in support of announcing a 75 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The guidance is also highly restrictive if price pressures persist for longer. Going forward, the spotlight will remain on the US employment data. As per the market consensus, the US economy has flooded the job market with additions of 270k fresh jobs in June. The figure is lower than the prior release of 390k. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.6%. The catalyst which could hurt the market sentiment is the Average Hourly Earnings. The economic data may remain stable at 5.2%, however, the inflation rate has climbed to 8.6%. This will hurt the paychecks of the households further and eventually will dampen the overall demand. On the eurozone front, recession fears are hurting the shared currency bulls on a broader note. The gas supply tensions between Europe and the UK economy are haunting the shared currency bulls. The UK administration announced that the economy will stop supplying gas to mainland Europe if it hits shortages in the coming months.  

According to the latest Reuters poll of foreign exchange analysts, the US dollar is likely to extend its bullish momentum for at least the next three

According to the latest Reuters poll of foreign exchange analysts, the US dollar is likely to extend its bullish momentum for at least the next three months, in the face of aggressive Fed rate hike expectations and demand for safe-haven assets. Key takeaways A three-quarters majority of analysts, 37 of 48, in a separate question from the July 1-6 Reuters FX poll expect that trend to continue for at least another three months. Of those, 19 said three to six months, 10 said six to 12 months, four said at least a year and four said at least two years. Only 11 respondents said less than three months. The median forecast from the latest poll of nearly 70 analysts doggedly clings to a long-held view that the dollar will weaken in the coming 12 months. The euro is forecast to gain nearly 8.0% to around $1.10 by mid-2023. Sterling is expected to regain around half of its lost ground in 2022 over the next year as the Bank of England looks set to continue raising interest rates. While China's tightly controlled yuan, the Indian rupee and the Malaysian ringgit were predicted to trade around where they are now over the next three to six months, the Russian rouble and Turkey's lira were expected to fall. Also read: BOJ to raise inflation view for fiscal 2022 to above 2% - Jiji

Despite the speculation of a likely lockdown to be imposed on Shanghai city, risk sentiment appears to be in a better spot in Thursday’s Asian trading

Despite the speculation of a likely lockdown to be imposed on Shanghai city, risk sentiment appears to be in a better spot in Thursday’s Asian trading. Markets see a fresh lockdown in China’s financial hub coming up soon, as the city reports a big jump in new coronavirus cases on Thursday. Shanghai Health Commission announced that the city reported 32 locally transmitted confirmed cases and 11 imported confirmed cases.   developing story ....

The AUD/USD pair is scaling firmly higher after oscillating in a range of 0.6764-0.6787 in early Tokyo. The asset has rebounded strongly after defendi

A short-term volatility contraction looks likely on a descending triangle formation.An establishment above the 50-period EMA will strengthen the aussie bulls.The RSI (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 that indicates a consolidation ahead.The AUD/USD pair is scaling firmly higher after oscillating in a range of 0.6764-0.6787 in early Tokyo. The asset has rebounded strongly after defending its weekly lows at 0.6766. A responsive buying action has pushed the asset above the critical hurdle of 0.6800. On an hourly scale, the aussie bulls have attracted significant bids after multiple tests of the crucial support placed from the July 1 low at 0.6766. The formation of the Descending Triangle is hinting for a consolidation going forward. The downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from June 16 high at 0.7070. The asset has crossed the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6789 and is now attempting to sustain above the 50-period EMA, which is trading at 0.6802. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a consolidation ahead. The context is still not bullish on a broader note. Therefore, investors should wait for a violation of Tuesday’s high at 0.6896 to initiate fresh longs. An occurrence of the same will drive the asset towards June 30 high at 0.6920, followed by June 28 high at 0.6965. On the flip side, the greenback bulls could regain strength if the asset drops below July 1 low at 0.6766, which will drag the asset towards the 29 May 2020 high at 0.6683. A breach of the latter will drag the asset towards the 30 April 2020 high at 0.6570. AUD/USD hourly chart  

USD/JPY snaps a three-day uptrend, retreating to 135.70 during Thursday’s Asian session. The yen pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the pullbac

USD/JPY fades bounce off intraday low during the first daily fall in four days.US Treasury bond yields recover as China’s covid conditions worse, recession fears escalate.BOJ is expected to revise inflation forecasts to the north.Second-tier Japan data, US ADP Employment Change could direct intraday moves, risk catalysts are the key.USD/JPY snaps a three-day uptrend, retreating to 135.70 during Thursday’s Asian session. The yen pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the pullback in the US Treasury yields, as well as hawkish hopes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) amid a sluggish session. However, fears of recession and covid woes in China keep underpinning the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. That said, Shanghai recently reported a big jump in the daily covid cases to 32 locally transmitted confirmed cases. The same propels lockdown fears, previously propelled by China’s order of mass testing. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to revise its inflation forecast to the north, which in turn teases the central bank hawks. However, the BOJ turned down any such moves by reiterating its commitment to easy money policies. It should be noted that the Japanese media mentioned that the BOJ is likely to consider lowering its GDP forecast for fiscal 2022. On a broader front, the yield curve inversion, a condition where near-term bond yields are higher than the longer-dated ones, appears to highlight the recession fears. That said, the 2-year bond coupon retreats to 2.96% while showing the inverse gap with the 10-year yields and hints at the global recession. On the same line, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” It should be noted that the softer US data could be linked to the recently easy US Dollar Index (DXY), down 0.10% around 107.00. The greenback gauge jumped to the highest in 20 years the previous day amid the market’s rush to risk safety. US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. Amid these plays, the US Treasury yields fade the previous day’s recovery from the monthly low whereas the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.20% by the press time. To sum up, Japan’s preliminary readings of the Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index for June may entertain USD/JPY traders ahead of the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior. However, major attention will be given to the risk catalysts and yields for clear directions. Technical analysis A successful rebound from the two-week-old support line, around 135.00, keeps USD/JPY buyers hopeful of refreshing the multi-year high, currently around 137.00.  

According to Jiji Press, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seen raising Japan’s view on inflation for fiscal 2022/23 to above the central bank price target o

According to Jiji Press, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seen raising Japan’s view on inflation for fiscal 2022/23 to above the central bank price target of 2%.   more to come ...

EUR/GBP is higher by some 0.9% at the time of writing to trade at 0.8544 with the pound being hampered by troubles at Number 10 Downing Street. A slew

EUR/GBP is rising in the Asian session and eyes are on a break of 0.8550.UK politics and economics are weighing on the pound. EUR/GBP is higher by some 0.9% at the time of writing to trade at 0.8544 with the pound being hampered by troubles at Number 10 Downing Street. A slew of scandals has begged the question as to whether British prime minister Boris Johnson’s term is going to come to an abrupt end. Two parliamentary by-election losses proved Boris Johnson's unpopularity. Now, an avalanche of resignations from various government members has left Johnson struggling for political survival. Nevertheless, the pound has held up reasonably well so far this week. Against the US dollar, the pound has managed to hold on to the 1.1900s for the most part but is failing to convince in the Tokyo session, with any advancements quickly met by sellers below 1.1930. This is helping EUR/GBP higher as the US dollar gives back a little ground to its peers in Asia.  Meanwhile, the economic conditions in the Uk are dire. Analysts at Rabobank explained that, arguably, the challenges facing policymakers in the UK are among the most complex in the developed world. ''UK CPI inflation has not yet peaked, and labour market strife indicates that higher inflation expectations may be already entrenched. However, UK consumer confidence has plunged, and, more recently, measures of business sentiment have also started to dive.'' Additionally, the analysts said, ''if expectations regarding BoE policy moves do not keep step with the hawkish guidance of the Federal Reserve, it can be argued there is a risk that GBP could weaken further. Yet, GBP is also proving sensitive to fears regarding growth. We see the risk of dips to GBP/USD1.18 on a 3-month view. We expect EUR/GBP to end the year at 0.88.''  

AUD/JPY fails to justify upbeat Australia trade statistics for May as it keeps flirting with the short-term key support near 92.00 during Thursday’s A

AUD/JPY remains pressured towards five-month-old support line despite upbeat Aussie data.Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below 50-DMA keeps sellers hopeful.Monthly resistance line adds to the upside filters.AUD/JPY fails to justify upbeat Australia trade statistics for May as it keeps flirting with the short-term key support near 92.00 during Thursday’s Asian session. That said, Australia’s Trade Balance rose to 15,965M in May versus 10,725M expected and 10,495M prior. Further details reveal that Exports rose 9.5% from 5.0% prior and Imports grew 5.8% compared to the previous contraction of 0.8%. The reason for the AUD/JPY pair’s weakness could be linked to its sustained downside break of the 50-DMA, as well as bearish MACD signals and a descending RSI (14), not oversold. However, the sellers need validation from the aforementioned support line from late January, at 91.90 by the press time. Following that, a mid-May swing high near 91.20 could probe the AUD/JPY bears before directing them to the May month’s low of 87.30. On the flip side, a successful break of the 50-DMA level of 92.50 becomes necessary for the pair before challenging the monthly resistance line, at 93.45 by the press time. Even if the quote rises past 93.45, it needs to surpass April’s peak of 95.74 to please AUD/JPY bulls. AUD/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Citing a poll of economists, Yicai.com reported on Thursday that “the Chinese economy is likely to have expanded about 0.9% in Q2, and should set a 4.

Citing a poll of economists, Yicai.com reported on Thursday that “the Chinese economy is likely to have expanded about 0.9% in Q2, and should set a 4.3% pace this year in a slow recovery from the disruptions caused by COVID-19 outbreaks.” Key takeaways Infrastructure investment, which could reach at least 6-8% in 2022, will be the main driver, followed by resilient exports and a marginal consumption rebound. But unemployment and weak property investment would still slow down the recovery process. Economists also raised their expectations for the yuan against the U.S. dollar to 6.68 by the end of July, compared with the 6.7114 reading on June 30.

Australia Imports (MoM) rose from previous -1% to 5.8% in May

Australia Exports (MoM) climbed from previous 1% to 9.5% in May

AUD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high near 0.6790 on strong Australia trade numbers during Thursday’s Asian session. Also keeping buyers hope

AUD/USD picks up bids to consolidate recent losses on upbeat Australia trade numbers.Aussie Trade Balance, Exports and Imports improved during May. Market sentiment dwindles as recession fears jostle with softer USD, pullback in yields.US ADP Employment Change, NFP could entertain traders, economic slowdown, central banks are the key catalysts.AUD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high near 0.6790 on strong Australia trade numbers during Thursday’s Asian session. Also keeping buyers hopeful are headlines from China and softer US data. However, fears of recession and anxiety ahead of the key US data/events keep buyers in check. Australia’s Trade Balance rose to 15,965M in May versus 10,725M expected and 10,495M prior. Further details reveal that Exports rose 9.0% from 1.0% prior and Imports grew 6.0% compared to the previous contraction of 1.0%. The quote’s recovery could also be linked to news from China suggesting more efforts to boost the economic transition from the pandemic. Recently, China’s Commerce Ministry hints at taking measures to increase vehicle consumption. It should be noted that the previous day’s softer US data could also be held responsible for challenging the AUD/USD sellers. That said, US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. Even so, fears of virus-led lockdowns, due to the recent mass testing, join the global recession woes to weigh on the AUD/USD prices. The 2-year US Treasury bond coupon retreats to 2.96% but shows the inverse gap with the 10-year bond yields, which in turn portrays the global recession fears. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” Also, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes favored the Fed hawks and keep the AUD/USD bulls at bay. From the latest monetary policy meeting minutes, the Fed policymakers appear determined to announce another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike. That said, the latest Fed Minutes highlighted the need for the “restrictive stance of policy” while also saying, “even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist”. Having witnessed the initial reaction to the domestic data, AUD/USD traders may pay attention to the risk catalysts for fresh impulse. Though, major attention will be given to the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior, as it becomes the early signal for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Also read: ADP Net Employment Change June Preview: Can employment stave off a recession? Technical analysis A downward slopping trend line from January, around 0.6750 by the press time, restricts immediate AUD/USD downside ahead of the late 2019 low near 0.6670. However, recovery remains elusive unless crossing the previous support line from May, close to 0.6865 at the latest.  

Australia's Trade Balance has been released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as follows: Australia May balance goods/svcs A$+15,965 mln, s/adj (

Australia's Trade Balance has been released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as follows: Australia May balance goods/svcs A$+15,965 mln, s/adj (Reuters poll: A$+10,725 mln). Australia May goods/services exports +9 pct m/m, seasonally adjusted. Australia May goods/services imports +6 pct m/m, seasonally adjusted. AUD/USD update The data has failed to move the needle in forex by any significant margin, although it has put a 6 pip bid into AUD/USD so far which is sticking within a familiar range, trading around 0.21% at 0.6790.  About the Aussie Trade Balance The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

Australia Imports (MoM) increased to 6% in May from previous -1%

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) above expectations (10725M) in May: Actual (15965M)

Australia Exports (MoM) rose from previous 1% to 9% in May

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7143 vs the previous fix of 6.7246 and the prior close of 6.7068. Abo

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7143 vs the previous fix of 6.7246 and the prior close of 6.7068. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) consolidates the recent losses around a 10-month low, picking up bids near $1,742 during Thursday’s Asian session. The yellow met

Gold Price portrays a corrective pullback from the lowest levels since September 2021.Oversold RSI favors recovery moves targeteeing 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level.Fears of global economic slowdown, hawkish Fed bets weigh on the prices but a lack of catalysts triggers rebound.US ADP Employment Change, ECB Minutes will be crucial for intraday directions, NFP is the key.Gold Price (XAU/USD) consolidates the recent losses around a 10-month low, picking up bids near $1,742 during Thursday’s Asian session. The yellow metal’s recent rebound could be linked to the lack of major data/events during the Asian session, as well as the trader’s anxiety ahead of today’s ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (mostly known as ECB Minutes), as well as the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior. Also likely to have favored the XAU/USD could be the US Treasury yields as they reverse the previous day’s recovery from a five-week low. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields declined one basis point (bp) to 2.90% by the press time. It’s worth noting that the 2-year bond coupon retreats to 2.96% while showing the inverse gap between the 10-year and 2-year yields, which in turn hints at the global recession fears. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” Additionally, softer US data could also be blamed for the gold’s latest rebound. US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. However, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes favored the Fed hawks as the Fed policymakers appear determined to announce another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike. That said, the latest Fed Minutes highlighted the need for the “restrictive stance of policy” while also saying, “even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist”. Amid these plays, the Wall Street benchmarks closed with mild gains whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at around 3,850 by the press time. Moving on, gold traders should pay attention to the monthly print of the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior, as it becomes the early signal for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Additionally important will be the recession signals and other second-tier US data, like weekly jobless claims and monthly trade numbers. Technical analysis Gold Price justifies oversold RSI (14) to portray a corrective pullback towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of August 2021 to March 2022 upside, near $1,753. It should be noted, however, that the XAU/USD upside past $1,753, could challenge the previously key horizontal support from late 2021, now resistance around $1,780-85. Following that, a convergence of the 21-DMA and a downward sloping resistance line from April 14, near $1,817, will be important to watch. Alternatively, a horizontal area comprising lows marked since August 2021, near $1,720, restricts the immediate downside of the Gold Price. Should the quote remains below $1,720, the odds of its slump to the late 2021 low surrounding $1,687 can’t be ruled out. Gold: Daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

The EUR/JPY pair is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session. The cross is trading back and forth in a narrow range of 138.26-138.60 a

EUR/JPY is attempting to hold itself above 138.00 after a rebound from 137.27.The shared currency bulls are worried over the gas supply tensions between the UK and Europe.The BOJ is worried over the muted wage-price hike as it may restrict the inflation rate.The EUR/JPY pair is displaying a lackluster performance in the Tokyo session. The cross is trading back and forth in a narrow range of 138.26-138.60 after a rebound from Wednesday’s low at 137.27. On a broader note, the asset is in the grip of bears. The pair is declining over the past week after failing to cross the four-week-old resistance at 144.00. The odds of a recession situation in the eurozone are accelerating firmly after the pessimist statement from the Bank of England (BOE) on the global outlook. The BOE believes that volatility in the oil and raw-material prices may bring economic shocks in the future. A gloomy outlook by a Western central bank is itself a negative for the FX domain. No doubt, the impact of the economic shocks will have adverse effects on the eurozone too as it has prohibited oil from Russia. Apart from the recession fears, the gas supply tensions between Europe and the UK economy are haunting the shared currency bulls. The UK administration announced that the economy will stop supplying gas to mainland Europe if it hits shortages in the coming months. On the Tokyo front, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is worried about the underperformance of the wage-price concept. The BOJ believes that wage prices are needed to be hiked in order to keep the inflation rate near the desired levels. Otherwise, the households will face the heat of higher price pressures and aggregate demand will tumble quantity-wise.  

GBP/USD has been propped up in the Tokyo open despite the bearish run for the start of the month that has taken the pair to the edge of the abyss at 1

GBP/USD bulls have moved in for the kill in the Tokyo open.There is a bullish bias so long as the price can stay above 1.1890.GBP/USD has been propped up in the Tokyo open despite the bearish run for the start of the month that has taken the pair to the edge of the abyss at 1.1900 the figure. GBP/USD was as low as 1.1876, its lowest point in the past 52 weeks, down 4.85% for the month and 1.62% for the week. However, the bulls are stepping in at this juncture and there is a bullish bias for the day ahead.  GBP/USD H1 chart The double bottom at the round number is a peak formation and a failure by the bears to keep control below 1.1900. The W-formation is a reversion pattern and the price has already been supported by the neckline which makes for a bullish thesis for the sessions ahead. A trip back below 1.1890, however, would nullify the bullish outlook for the day ahead. 

USD/CHF buyers flirt with the 0.9700 threshold inside a one-week-old bullish channel during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Swiss currency

USD/CHF struggles to extend four-day uptrend inside a short-term bullish chart pattern.Successful break of 200-SMA keeps buyers hopeful but RSI conditions hint at a pullback.Recovery remains elusive unless crossing 0.9780 hurdle, sellers could wait for 0.9630 break.USD/CHF buyers flirt with the 0.9700 threshold inside a one-week-old bullish channel during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair takes rounds to the three-week high, also snapping a four-day uptrend inside, amid overbought RSI conditions. Given the quote’s latest pullback from the stated channel’s resistance, backed by the oversold RSI, the USD/CHF prices may decline further. However, the 200-SMA support near 0.9670 could offer a strong challenge to the sellers. Even if the pair drops below 0.9670, it needs to defy the bullish channel by breaking the 0.9630 support to convince the bears. Following that, a south-run towards the monthly low of 0.9495 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the upper line of the aforementioned channel, near 0.9740, could challenge the immediate USD/CHF advances ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its downturn from mid-May, around 0.9780. In a case where the pair rises past 0.9780, the 0.9820 level may act as a buffer during the run-up targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9846 and mid-June swing low around 0.9875. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The AUD/JPY pair has witnessed a steep fall while attempting to recapture Wednesday’s high at 92.50. The risk barometer has faced significant offers i

AUD/JPY has surrendered the crucial support of 92.00 as lockdown fears in China escalate.Western central banks are set for another leg of raising interest rates this month.In today’s session, Aussie Trade Balance data will be of utmost importance.The AUD/JPY pair has witnessed a steep fall while attempting to recapture Wednesday’s high at 92.50. The risk barometer has faced significant offers in the opening session of Tokyo and downside potential remains favored amid the souring market mood. Recession fears are escalating further as Western central banks have moved to another leg of raising interest rates at a bumper rate. In relation to that, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has already announced a consecutive rate hike by 50 basis points (bps) on Tuesday. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has elevated its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1.35% and the guidance is still hawkish. The increments in policy tightening measures by the RBA dictate that the central bank is focused on bringing price stability sooner. Meanwhile, the resurgence of Covid-19 in China has spooked the market sentiment. A back-to-back resurgence of the coronavirus in China is hurting their economic activities and eventually the operations with their trading partners. It is worth noting that Australia is a leading exporter to China and a halt in Chinese economic activities also affects the antipodean. Going forward, the release of the Aussie Trade Balance data will be of significant importance. As per the market consensus, the economic data is seen at 10,725M, higher than the prior print of 10,495M. On the Tokyo front, yen bulls have strengthened on rising expectations for higher price pressures. Seisaku Kameda, a former chief economist at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Tuesday said that the sharp decline in the yen on a broader note will lift the inflation outlook. The inflation rate may remain well above 2% this year.      

EUR/USD struggles for clear directions while taking rounds to 1.0180-70 during Thursday’s Asian session, after bouncing off the lowest levels since la

EUR/USD struggles for clear directions while taking rounds to 1.0180-70 during Thursday’s Asian session, after bouncing off the lowest levels since late 2002 the previous day. The major currency pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the cautious mood of traders ahead of the key data/events, as well as options market signals. That said, the daily risk reversal (RR) for the EUR/USD, the spread between the call options and the put options, eases to -0.055 by the end of Wednesday’s North American trading session. It’s worth noting that the EUR/USD RR slumped the most on a day since June 13 during Monday. Given the options market player’s indecision, EUR/USD traders should wait for today’s ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (mostly known as ECB Minutes), as well as the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior, for clear directions. Read: EUR/USD dribbles at multi-year low below 1.0200, ECB Minutes, US ADP Employment eyed

USD/JPY is bearish on the daily and lower time frames and has been sent off a cliff in the Tokyo open. The following illustrates the bearish bias and

USD/JPY bears have forced the bulls back below 136.00.Price remains capped below a 68.2% daily Fibo. USD/JPY is bearish on the daily and lower time frames and has been sent off a cliff in the Tokyo open. The following illustrates the bearish bias and prospects of a move into 135.50 for the session ahead.  USD/JPY daily chart   USD/JPY H1 chart The price has made three pushes to the upside but from an hourly perspective, but the price has failed through the 136.00 and was rapidly shot down by the bears in the open. The hourly candle has all of the makings for a strong bearish close which will break the horizontal structure and leave prospects of a red day on the table. 

Silver Price (XAG/USD) retreats to $19.16, fading the corrective pullback from a two-year low, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the brigh

Silver fades the previous day’s corrective pullback from two-year low.Doji candlestick above February 2020 high, oversold RSI challenge sellers.Bulls need validation from previous support line from February.Silver Price (XAG/USD) retreats to $19.16, fading the corrective pullback from a two-year low, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the bright metal struggles to justify the previous day’s Doji candlestick, as well as oversold RSI (14) conditions. However, the quote’s further downside is likely to witness multiple hurdles as the highs marked during February and January 2020, respectively around $18.95 and $18.85, could challenge the XAG/USD bears. Even if the quote drops past $18.85, the June 2020 peak of $18.39 and late 2019 high surrounding $18.33 could test the sellers before directing them to the late 2020 bottom near $16.95. On the contrary, recovery moves need to cross the support-turned-resistance line surrounding $19.55 to tease silver buyers. Following that, an eight-day-old resistance line near $19.75 and the $20.00 round figure could challenge the XAG/USD recovery. Should the metal prices rally beyond $20.00, the 21-DMA level of $20.85 and the previous monthly peak near $22.50 are likely to gain the market’s attention. To sum up, silver prices remain pressured near the multi-month low but the downside appears to have limited room to the south. Silver: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls take a breather around 20-year, seesaws around 107.05-10 after the four-day uptrend. That said, the quote’s latest inactio

DXY remains sidelined around multi-year high, probes four-day uptrend.10-year, 2-year yield curve propels recession fears, FOMC Minutes highlights hawkish Fed bets.Softer US statistics, lack of major data/events in Asia allow bulls to take a breather.US ADP Employment Change to decorate calendar, risk catalysts are more important for clear directions.US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls take a breather around 20-year, seesaws around 107.05-10 after the four-day uptrend. That said, the quote’s latest inaction challenges bulls during Thursday’s Asian session. However, the bears need validation from the US ADP Employment Change data and risk catalysts. That said, the greenback gauge rallied to the highest levels in two decades as softer data couldn’t probe the USD bulls amid hawkish Fed Minutes and yields curve inversion, not to forget economic pessimism in Eurozone. US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields bounced off a three-week low to 2.93% but the higher print of the 2-year bond coupon, around 2.99%, which in turn hints at the global recession fears. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” Germany and Italy have already signaled early signs of economic slowdown and the bloc’s Retail Sales also dropped to 0.2% in May versus 4.0% recorded in April and 5.4% estimated. Also negative for the old continent were chatters that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) crisis-fighting scheme risks being tied up in legal and political knots, per the Financial Times (FT). Amid these plays, the Wall Street benchmarks closed with mild gains whereas the S&P 500 Futures remain directionless around 3,850 by the press time. Moving on, DXY traders should pay attention to the monthly print of the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior, as it becomes the early signal for Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Additionally important will be the recession signals and other second-tier US data, like weekly jobless claims and monthly trade numbers. Also read: ADP Net Employment Change June Preview: Can employment stave off a recession? Technical analysis US Dollar Index is gradually rising towards September 2002 high near 109.80 until it stays above the previous resistance line from May 13, close to 106.30 by the press time.  

The NZD/USD pair is oscillating in a narrow range of 0.6139-0.6158 in the Asian session. The kiwi bulls have defended the weekly lows at 0.6146 for th

Investors should brace for a volatility contraction on Falling Wedge formation.The kiwi bulls have defended the weekly lows at 0.6146 for the second time.The antipodean is struggling to surpass the 20-period EMA at 0.6253.The NZD/USD pair is oscillating in a narrow range of 0.6139-0.6158 in the Asian session. The kiwi bulls have defended the weekly lows at 0.6146 for the second time on Wednesday. Broadly, the asset has turned sideways and may display a volatility expansion on the availability of a potential trigger. On an hourly scale, the formation of the Falling Wedge is indicating a lackluster performance by the major going forward. The upper portion of the chart pattern is placed from June 16 high at 0.6396 while the lower portion is plotted from June 14 low at 0.6196. Usually, the above-mentioned chart pattern leads to a bullish reversal after the upside break of the upper portion of the former. The downward-sloping trendline placed from Monday’s high at 0.6253 will act as a major hurdle for the counter. The antipodean is struggling to surpass the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6156, which signals that the short-term trend is still not lucrative for the kiwi bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is focusing surviving the attacks and holding the 40.00 mark to keep bulls alive. A decisive move above Wednesday’s high at 0.6176 will drive the asset towards the round-level resistance at 0.6200, followed by June 22 low at 0.6244. On the flip side, the greenback bulls could regain control if the major drop below Tuesday’s low at 0.6124. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards 25 May 2020 low at 0.6084. A violation of 0.6084 will expose the asset to more downside potential towards the psychological support of 0.6000. NZD/USD hourly chart        

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks down to ¥-490.4B in July 1 from previous ¥-429.7B

Japan Foreign Bond Investment rose from previous ¥-1600.6B to ¥-1415.4B in July 1

“The Bank of Canada (BOC) is set to raise its overnight rate by a hefty 75 basis points (bps) this month and by another 50 in September, front-loading

“The Bank of Canada (BOC) is set to raise its overnight rate by a hefty 75 basis points (bps) this month and by another 50 in September, front-loading a campaign to take monetary policy to where it will restrain the economy,” according to a Reuters poll of 29 economists. Key findings But the June 30-July 6 survey suggests the BoC will halt earlier than the Fed, pausing throughout next year in part as deeply indebted Canadian households are more vulnerable to higher borrowing costs. Still, over 90% of respondents, 27 of 29, said the BoC, which already delivered back-to-back 50 basis point hikes at its previous two meetings, will deliver a 75 basis point hike to 2.25% on July 13 following a similar move at the Fed's June meeting. The BoC will hike again by 50 basis points in September, according to a significant majority of economists, taking the overnight rate to 2.75%. That is well into a neutral range - where the economy is neither stimulated nor restricted by policy - estimated at 2-3% by economists in the poll. Most respondents said the BoC will dial down the size of its hikes to 25 basis point increments or lower in October and December, taking the rate to 3.25% by year-end, in line with interest rate futures. But over one-quarter of poll respondents predicted the year-end rate to be higher than that. The BoC is expected to pause throughout next year even as the Fed carries on raising rates. Inflation was expected to cool significantly from a near 40-year high of 7.7% in May to 2.2% by the fourth quarter of next year, according to the poll, as recession risks rise. All economists but one responding to an additional question said the cost of living crisis would not ease significantly for at least six months. Also read: USD/CAD retreats towards 1.3000 as oil recovers, focus on US ADP Employment

GBP/JPY defends the previous day’s rebound from the 100-DMA as it picks up bids around 162.15 during Thursday‘s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-

GBP/JPY grinds higher after bouncing off the lowest levels in three weeks.Bullish candlestick, rebound from 100-DMA favor buyers amid steady RSI.50-DMA guards immediate upside amid bearish MACD signals.GBP/JPY defends the previous day’s rebound from the 100-DMA as it picks up bids around 162.15 during Thursday‘s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair also justifies the ‘Dragonfly Doji’ candlestick marked on Wednesday. Given the RSI (14) favoring the recent rebound from a three-week low, backed by bullish candlestick formation and a U-turn from the 100-DMA, GBP/JPY is likely approaching the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 162.80. However, a convergence of the 21-DMA and a downward sloping resistance line from June 22, near 164.80, appears the key resistance level to watch. Should the GBP/JPY prices rally beyond 164.80, the odds of witnessing a north-run towards the previous monthly peak of 168.73 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, pullback moves remain unimportant beyond the 100-DMA support level of 160.90. Following that, an upward sloping trend line from early March, near 159.50, will be crucial to watch for the GBP/JPY bears. In a case where the quote provides a daily closing below 159.50, a slump towards May’s low of 155.59 becomes imminent. GBP/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

USD/CAD remains pressured around 1.3030, extending the previous day’s pullback from the highest levels since late 2020, as traders pare USD gains amid

USD/CAD extends pullback from multi-year high, pressured of late.Oil prices print corrective pullback despite recession fears, API inventory build.Softer US data probes USD bulls ahead of key data/events, FOMC Minutes favored greenback buyers.US ADP Employment Change, Canada trade and Ivey PMI data to decorate calendar.USD/CAD remains pressured around 1.3030, extending the previous day’s pullback from the highest levels since late 2020, as traders pare USD gains amid a quiet Asian session on Thursday. It’s worth noting that the bounce in the prices of Canada’s main export item, WTI crude oil also weighs on the Loonie pair. USD/CAD printed mild gains on Wednesday, despite the broad US dollar strength and the weakness in the oil prices, as it retreated from the key resistance line around the multi-day high marked on Tuesday. Also favoring the pullback could be the softer US data. That said, US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. While the softer US data initially allowed the bears to take a breather, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes favored the pessimism as the Fed policymakers appear determined to announce another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike. That said, the latest Fed Minutes highlighted the need for the “restrictive stance of policy” while also saying, “even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist”. It should be noted that the WTI crude oil prices eyes to regain the $100.00 level, around $95.80 by the press time while bouncing off a three-month low of $93.20. In doing so, the black gold ignores the market’s fears of economic slowdown and a build in the US inventories, as per the weekly oil stockpile data from the American Petroleum Institute. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields bounced off a three-week low to 2.93% but the higher print of the 2-year bond coupon, around 2.99%, hints at the global recession fears. The Wall Street benchmarks, however, closed with mild gains. Given the market’s indecision, traders will pay attention to the monthly readings of Canada trade numbers and the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for fresh impulse. However, major attention will be given to the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior, for clear directions. Read: Technical analysis Considering the USD/CAD pair’s sustained pullback from the two-month-old resistance line, around 1.3080 by the press time, the quote is likely to revisit the 10-DMA support of 1.2927.  

The AUD/USD pair is juggling minutely above 0.6780 in the early Tokyo session. It looks like the pair is following the footprints of the lackluster US

AUD/USD is facing volatility contraction as the DXY has turned sideways.The aussie bulls have failed to capitalize on the 50 bps rate hike announcement by the RBA.This week, the US employment data will be the major trigger for the FX domain.The AUD/USD pair is juggling minutely above 0.6780 in the early Tokyo session. It looks like the pair is following the footprints of the lackluster US dollar index (DXY) and is witnessing volatility contraction. There is severe pessimism in the FX domain and risk-perceived currencies are falling like a house of cards. However, the aussie bulls have defended their weekly lows of 0.6764 for the second time on Wednesday. The antipodean has failed to capitalize on the elevation of the interest rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). On Tuesday, RBA Governor Philip Lowe hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps). Now, the RBA’s OCR stands at 1.35% after a consecutive half-a-percent rate hike. The RBA is very much focused to bring price stability to its economy as the inflation rate has reached 5.1%, recorded in the first quarter of CY2022. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is displaying back and forth moves above 107.00. The DXY has renewed its 19-year high at 107.26 after the release of the hawkish minutes. Only one Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member voted against the rate hike announcement by 75 bps. Now, investors are shifting their focus entirely to the US employment data, which is due on Friday. As per the market consensus, the US economy added 270k jobs in June, higher than the former release of 390k. However, the Unemployment Rate may remain stable at 3.6%.  

South Korea Current Account Balance increased to 3.86B in May from previous -0.08B

Gold price (XAU/USD) has turned into a consolidation phase after displaying a sheer downside move to near $1,732.00 in the New York session. On a broa

Gold prices are likely to witness more downside on a firmer DXY.Hawkish FOMC minutes have brought an intense sell-off in gold prices.The US NFP is seen lower at 270k in relation to the prior release.Gold price (XAU/USD) has turned into a consolidation phase after displaying a sheer downside move to near $1,732.00 in the New York session. On a broader note, the precious metal is in the grip of bears and possesses the downside potential if it violates the crucial support of $1,730.00. The precious metal is attracting offers as the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday infused fresh blood into the US dollar index (DXY). The minutes were extremely hawkish as only one FOMC member was not in support of 75 basis points (bps) interest rate hike. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is ‘unintentionally committed’ to bringing price stability and will elevate interest rates further to the same extent if high inflation persists further. The DXY has refreshed its 19-year high at 107.26 and more gains are on the way ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). A preliminary estimate for the economic data is 270k, lower than the prior print of 390k. In today’s session, the spotlight will remain on the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change, which may improve to 200k, higher than the prior print of 128k. Gold technical analysis                               On the daily scale, the gold prices are declining towards the horizontal support placed on the 8 March 2021 low at $1,676.87. The 50- and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have displayed a death cross at $1,850.00, which adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into a bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which signals more downside ahead. Gold daily chart  

Australia AiG Performance of Services Index down to 48.8 in June from previous 49.2

GBP/USD holds onto the late Wednesday’s bounce-off two-year low around 1.1925 as traders seek fresh clues during Thursday’s initial Asian session. The

GBP/USD refrains from portraying the political crisis at home by posting mild losses at two-year low.Over 30 UK diplomats have resigned, 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs eye second no-confidence vote.Recession fears, hawkish Fed bets exert downside pressure but softer US data probed bears.US ADP Employment Change to decorate calendar, UK politics, Brexit drama more important for clear directions.GBP/USD holds onto the late Wednesday’s bounce-off two-year low around 1.1925 as traders seek fresh clues during Thursday’s initial Asian session. The Cable pair dropped to the lowest levels since March 2020 the previous day as the UK’s political crisis joined Brexit woes and broad recession fears. However, the market’s anxiety ahead of today’s key data/events, as well as softer US statistics, appears to have probed the bears of late. With over 30 resignations of the British diplomats, including the Chancellor, Health Minister and Tory Party Vice-Chairman, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is under immense pressure to step down, even if he rejects such push by some of the remaining Conservatives. Recently, Michael Gove, one of the most senior ministers in the British government, earlier told Prime Minister Boris Johnson he must quit.  Elsewhere, EU Commissioner for Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight Maroš Šefčovič said on Wednesday that the UK bill on altering the Northern Ireland Protocol is unacceptable. On a broader front, the US 10-year Treasury yields bounced off a three-week low to 2.93% but the higher print of the 2-year bond coupon, around 2.99%, which in turn hints at the global recession fears. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” It should be noted that US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes also favored the market pessimism as the Fed policymakers appear determined to announce another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike. That said, the latest Fed Minutes highlighted the need for the “restrictive stance of policy” while also saying, “even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist”. Looking forward, qualitative catalysts are likely to entertain GBP/USD traders ahead of the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior. Also read: ADP Net Employment Change June Preview: Can employment stave off a recession? Technical analysis A two-month-old support line near 1.1765 seems to restrict short-term GBP/USD downside amid oversold RSI conditions. The corrective pullback, however, needs to cross the monthly resistance line, near 1.2090 by the press time, to recall the buyers.  

EUR/USD turned out to be the weakest among the G10 currency pairs on Wednesday before bears took a breather around the nearly 20-year low of 1.0161 du

EUR/USD remains sidelined after declining to the lowest levels since December 2002.Fears of economic slowdown at home amid energy crisis, geopolitical tussles favor bears.Softer US data couldn’t help as FOMC Minutes appear hawkish.ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, US ADP Employment Change for June will be crucial to track.EUR/USD turned out to be the weakest among the G10 currency pairs on Wednesday before bears took a breather around the nearly 20-year low of 1.0161 during the initial hour of Thursday’s Asian session. Apart from the broad pessimism surrounding economic growth and central bankers’ aggression, the energy crisis in the bloc exerted additional downside pressure on the quote ahead of the key data/events. Germany and Italy have already signaled early signs of economic slowdown and the bloc’s Retail Sales also dropped to 0.2% in May versus 4.0% recorded in April and 5.4% estimated. Also on the negative side were chatters that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) crisis-fighting scheme risks being tied up in legal and political knots, per the Financial Times (FT) also weighing on the EUR/USD prices. On the other hand, US ISM Services PMI for June dropped to 55.3 versus 55.9 in May. The actual figure, however, came in better than the market expectation of 54.5. It’s worth noting that the US JOLTS Job Opening for May declined to 11.25 million versus 11.00 million expected and 11.68 million prior. While the softer US data initially allowed the bears to take a breather, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes favored the pessimism as the Fed policymakers appear determined to announce another 75 basis points (bps) of a rate hike. That said, the latest Fed Minutes highlighted the need for the “restrictive stance of policy” while also saying, “even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist”. Elsewhere, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said, per Reuters, “Global economic outlook has 'darkened significantly' since last economic update.” the IMF chief also added, “Cannot rule out the possible global recession in 2023.” Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields bounced off a three-week low to 2.93% but the higher print of the 2-year bond coupon, around 2.99%, hints at the global recession fears. Moving on, risk catalysts are likely to entertain EUR/USD traders ahead of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (mostly known as ECB Minutes), as well as the US ADP Employment Change for June, expected 200K versus 128K prior. Also read: ADP Net Employment Change June Preview: Can employment stave off a recession? Technical analysis Having dropped below the key 1.0360-50 support zone comprising multiple lows marked since May, EUR/USD appears vulnerable to witness further downside towards the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May downside, near 1.0130. However, any further declines won’t hesitate to recall the 1.0000 psychological magnet back to the chart.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was lower again overnight as recession worries continue to weigh on the black gold. At the time of writing, WT

WTI attempts to recover from the bottom of the barrel.The supply remains tight but the uncoiling process could come underway. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was lower again overnight as recession worries continue to weigh on the black gold. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $98.11 after recovering from the lows of $95.09. The bears moved in overnight when investors took to the sidelines in anticipation of the Federal reserve minutes and presumed hawkishness from the central bank. The pessimists are expecting that higher rates will lead to a global recession. The consensus is forcing a bid into the bond markets and sending the greenback to fresh 20-year highs. ''The minutes of the US Fed’s June meeting (where they hiked 75bps) reveal a central bank laser focussed on defending its inflation target,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. ''There is clearly a concern amongst the FOMC about inflation expectations becoming unanchored,'' the analysts added. ''They noted “that a significant risk… was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the resolve of the Committee to adjust the stance of policy as warranted”. The Fed is understandably eager to reinforce to the public that they’ve got this, and hiking 75bps (and signalling many more hikes to come) certainly reinforces the message.'' Meanwhile, for related updates in the oil market, the analysts noted that ''Kazakhstan is the latest producer to be running into issues. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which exports Kazakh crude from a key terminal on the Black Sea, was ordered to halt loadings for 30 days due to a violation of a spill-prevention plan''. Supply remains tight and little progress has been made toward solving structural supply challenges. Analysts at TD Securities argued that ''even a slow rate of demand growth can endanger energy supply. In this context, Brent crude and distillates prices are also exhibiting strong asymmetry towards upside moves in demand, which could point to an uncoiling process should commodity demand rebound.''  

The USD/CHF pair is likely to remain in a consolidation as investors are awaiting the release of the Swiss jobless rate. The asset has turned sideways

USD/CHF is juggling around 0.9700 as investors await employment data.The Swiss Unemployment data is seen as stable at 2.2%.Hawkish Fed minutes have supported the DXY and may display more upside further.The USD/CHF pair is likely to remain in a consolidation as investors are awaiting the release of the Swiss jobless rate. The asset has turned sideways after failing to cross the critical hurdle of 0.9740. The major is attempting a balance in a tad wider range of 0.9690-0.9740 ahead. A preliminary estimate for the Swiss Unemployment Rate on a monthly basis is 2.2%, similar to the former release. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to be delighted with the economic data as it will facilitate a rate hike decision by the central bank. It is worth noting that the SNB is on the path of elevating interest rates now. SNB Governor Thomas J. Jordan announced a rate hike by 50 basis points (bps) in its June monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is holding itself comfortably above 107.00. The DXY has turned sideways after the release of the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday. Only one FOMC member was not in support of dictating a 75 bps rate hike. The guidance will also remain highly restrictive if price pressures persist for longer. In today’s session, the release of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change will remain in focus. As per the market consensus, the job additions in the labor market may improve to 200k, higher than the prior print of 128k. However, the Initial Jobless Claims will remain almost flat at 230k, against the former release of 231k.  

The EUR/JPY is almost flat as the Asian Pacific session takes over, up 0.04%, after plunging 0.78% on Wednesday. All that courtesy of a mixed market m

The EUR/JPY is tumbling in the week by some 1.88%.Selling pressure trips down the EUR/JPY to fresh weekly lows, below 138.00.The EUR/JPY might achieve a mean reversion move towards 139.00 before aiming towards the 100-day EMA at 136.00The EUR/JPY is almost flat as the Asian Pacific session takes over, up 0.04%, after plunging 0.78% on Wednesday. All that courtesy of a mixed market mood painting a dark economic outlook due to the energy crisis that has the Euro area at the brink of a recession, as Russia squeezes energy supplies to “unfriendly” countries. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY at 138.40.Selling pressure trips down the EUR/JPY to fresh weekly lowsUS equities finished in the New York session on a higher note. Asian stocks are set to open in negative territory, as illustrated by futures in Asia trading with losses, while safe-haven currencies in the FX market are recording gains. The EUR/JPY, Wednesday’s open, was near Tuesday’s lows and seesawed through most of the Asian session. However, once the European session took over, EUR/JPY’s sellers stepped in and sent the pair plunging towards a fresh weekly low at around 137.26.EUR/JPY Daily chartThe EUR/JPY is neutral-upward biased, but the break of the 20 and 50-day EMAs opened the door for sellers, which piled around the 142.50 mark, and at 138.40, July 6 high, spurring EUR/JPY’s losses of 400 pips. A continuation to the downside looms, but a corrective leg towards 139.00 is on the cards. If that scenario plays out, the EUR/JPY’s first support would be the 138.00 figure. Once cleared, the next support would be the July 6 low at 137.26, followed by the 100-day EMA at 135.92.EUR/JPY Key Technical Levels 

United States API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: 3.825M (July 1) vs -3.799M

The USD/JPY steadily advanced on Wednesday and is up 0.50% amidst a mixed market mood session as equities rise while recessionary fears bolster safe-h

The USD/JPY rises bolstered by higher US Treasury yields, with the 10-year benchmark note up at 2.932%.A mixed market mood, keep safe-haven currencies bid, in the USD/JPY, the greenback.A USD/JPY rising wedge in the daily chart might open the door for a pullback towards 132.50 before challenging the YTD high around 137.00.The USD/JPY steadily advanced on Wednesday and is up 0.50% amidst a mixed market mood session as equities rise while recessionary fears bolster safe-haven currencies. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 135.91, shy of weekly highs around 137.00. The sentiment is mixed as Wall Street closed. US equities rose, except for the Russell 2000, while in the meantime, in the FX market, a risk-off impulse keeps the safe-haven currencies in the driver’s seat. Regarding the USD/JPY, the greenback got boosted by climbing US Treasury yields. The US 10-year yield erased Tuesday’s losses, rising twelve basis points at 2.932%, a tailwind for the USD/JPY.USD/JPY Daily chartThe USD/JPY daily chart illustrates the pair as neutral-upward biased. Nevertheless, the major broke a rising wedge, though it remains to trade in the 134.90-136.90 area, signaling that “some” buying pressure lies ahead. However, risks of an intervention by Japanese authorities keep USD/JPY traders uncommitted to lift prices higher, which could open the door for a test of August’s 1998 highs around 147.67. USD/JPY traders should be aware that a rising wedge was broken to the downside, meaning that prices at a certain time might fall towards 132.50 (the rising wedge profit target). After that, a re-test of the YTD highs around 137.00 is on the cards.USD/JPY Key Technical Levels 
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