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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Monday, March 25, 2019

"The general business activity index remained positive but fell five points to 8.3," the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas announced in its latest Texas

"The general business activity index remained positive but fell five points to 8.3," the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas announced in its latest Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.Key takeaways from the press releaseThe production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at 11.5, indicating output growth continued at about the same pace as last month. The new orders index fell from 6.9 to 2.4, and the growth rate of orders index slipped into negative territory for the first time since December 2016. The shipments index declined five points to 5.8, while the capacity utilization index moved up four points to 10.9. The employment index held steady at 13.1, a reading well above average.

United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index above forecasts (7) in March: Actual (8.3)

   •  Renewed USD selling pressure helps regain positive traction at the start of a new week.    •  Fresh US-China trade tensions might now turn out t

   •  Renewed USD selling pressure helps regain positive traction at the start of a new week.
   •  Fresh US-China trade tensions might now turn out to be the only factor capping gains.
The NZD/USD pair held on to its positive tone through the early North-American session, with bulls now eyeing a move further beyond the 0.6900 handle. After last week's late pull-back from over 1-1/2 month tops, the pair managed to regain some positive traction at the start of a new trading week and was being supported by some renewed US Dollar selling pressure. In fact, the buck stalled its recent recovery from the post-FOMC swing low to the lowest level since early Feb. and snapped two consecutive days of winning streak amid the recent inversion of the 3m-10yr US bond yield curve.  However, fresh jitters from the US-China trade front might help limit further USD weakness and might turn out to be the only factor keeping a lid on any strong follow-through up-move for the major, at least for the time being. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum through the US trading session on Monday.Technical levels to watchOn a sustained move beyond the 0.6900 handle, the pair is likely to accelerate the up-move back towards challenging the 0.6935-40 supply zone before eventually aiming to test Dec. 2018 swing highs, around the 0.6970 region. On the flip side, the 0.6870 level now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might accelerate the slide further towards the 0.6830 intermediate support en-route the 0.6800 round figure mark.
 

The Aussie Dollar has started the week on a positive note and has lifted AUD/USD to fresh daily highs in levels beyond 0.7100 the figure. AUD/USD bid

The Aussie picks up pace and regains 0.7100 and above.AUD remains bid despite growth concerns.The pair stays supported around 0.7000.The Aussie Dollar has started the week on a positive note and has lifted AUD/USD to fresh daily highs in levels beyond 0.7100 the figure.AUD/USD bid on weak USDSpot keeps recovering part of the ground lost in the last couple of sessions, managing to reclaim the critical 0.7100 handle while finding decent contention around the psychological 0.7000 neighbourhood. Concerns over a global slowdown, particularly in the Chinese economy remain in centre stage, although recent comments from Chinese officials have emphasized the capacity of the economy to deal with downside pressures, all lending support to AUD. On the positioning front, AUD speculative net shorts climbed to the highest level since late November 2018 during the week ended on March 19, according to the latest CFTC report.What to look for around AUDThe broad risk-appetite trends continue to drive the sentiment in the high-beta currencies and the commodity-bloc, where developments in the US-China trade dispute remain the almost exclusive catalyst of the price action. Recent RBA minutes confirmed the shift to a more neutral stance from the central bank, while market participants continue to price in a rate cut at some point in H2 2019, all keeping the medium term bearish outlook on AUD unchanged for the time being.AUD/USD levels to watchAt the moment the pair is gaining 0.27% at 0.7098 and a breakout of 0.7131 (55-day SMA) would aim for 0.7168 (high Mar.21) and finally 0.7215 (200-day SMA). On the downside, the next support emerges at 0.7003 (low Mar.8) followed by 0.6907 (monthly low Sep.4 2015) and then 0.6827 (monthly low Jan.26 2016).

Major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the negative territory on Monday as investors continue to stay away from risky assets. As of writi

Major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the negative territory on Monday as investors continue to stay away from risky assets. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both down 0.35% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite Index was losing 0.55%.  Concerns over an economic slowdown in the U.S. amid inverting Treasury bond yield curve seems to be hurting the sentiment. At the moment, the 10-year T-bond yield is losing nearly 1% on the day while the rate-related S&P 500 Financials Index is erasing 0.42%. Moreover, the risk-sensitive S&P 500 Technology and Energy Indexes are losing 0.72% and 0.63% to lead the losses. Confirming the risk-off atmosphere, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, is up 6.5% on a daily basis. On the other hand, among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, Utilities and Industrials are posting small daily gains.

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). EUR/USD 4-hour chart EUR/USD is tradin

EUR/USD daily chartEUR/USD is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).EUR/USD 4-hour chartEUR/USD is trading below its 200 SMA suggesting bearish momentum in the medium-term.
EUR/USD 30-minute chartEUR/USD bulls are attempting to break above the 1.1330 resistance and the 100 SMA.The next key resistance to the upside is at 1.1400 level.Support is at 1.1290 level.
Additional key levels 

Belgium Leading Indicator came in at -0.7, above expectations (-2.3) in March

Standard Chartered analysts suggest that their China’s nowcasting model points to GDP growth of 6.2% y/y in the first two months of Q1-2019, easing fr

Standard Chartered analysts suggest that their China’s nowcasting model points to GDP growth of 6.2% y/y in the first two months of Q1-2019, easing from 6.4% in Q4-2018.Key Quotes“Our monthly growth tracker confirmed the weak momentum in January-February. Industrial production growth slid to an average of 5.4% y/y in January- February from 5.7% in Q4-2018, partly due to negative seasonal and destocking effects. While real-estate investment picked up, land area purchased dropped significantly, and both floor space started and sold data deteriorated at the start of the year. Trade data turned weaker on softer global demand and tariff effects.” “Meanwhile, domestic demand – as measured by retail sales and fixed asset investment growth in real terms – improved in January-February. Fiscal spending accelerated in the first two months of the year. Our SMEI suggests the outlook for SMEs remained strong at the beginning of the year. We expect growth to bottom out in Q1-2019 at 6.3%, followed by a mild cyclical recovery in H2.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, has now reversed the initial optimism and returns to the n

The index comes under selling pressure in the mid-96.00s.Yields of the US-10 year note eased from tops.Markets’ focus stay on Brexit negotiations.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, has now reversed the initial optimism and returns to the negative ground in the 96.50/40 band.US Dollar Index focused on risk trends, yieldsThe index is trading on the defensive for the first time following two consecutive daily advances and after bottoming out in the area of the 200-day SMA last week. Declining yields in the US money markets plus the inversion of the 3m-10y curve continue to weigh on sentiment along with speculations of a global slowdown, including the US and particularly after disappointing advanced PMIs published last Friday. There are no scheduled releases in the US docket today, whereas Housing Starts, Building Permits, the S&P/Case-Shiller index and CB’s Consumer Confidence will grab all the attention on Tuesday.What to look for around USDThe greenback left behind recent Fed-induced lows although it is expected to remain in centre stage while investors keep scrutinizing the performance of yields and the recent inversion of the 3m-10y curve. In light of the heightened patient stance from the Fed, traders will now scrutinize every piece of incoming data, particularly regarding the inflation performance. Fresh jitters from the US-China trade front could, however, put a floor to the buck’s decline in the near/medium term.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 96.51 and a breach of 95.74 (low Mar.20) would open the door for 95.16 (low Jan.31) and then 95.03 (2019 low Jan.10). On the flip side, the next hurdle is located at 96.81 (high Mar.22) seconded by 97.37 (high Feb.15) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7).

   •  The pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday bounce from over six-week lows and oscillated in a narrow trading band around the 110.00 handle

   •  The pair struggled to capitalize on its intraday bounce from over six-week lows and oscillated in a narrow trading band around the 110.00 handle through the early North-American session.   •  Given last week's bearish break below 2-1/2-month-old ascending trend-line, the attempted recovery move might still be categorized as corrective amid oversold conditions on the 4-hourly chart.   •  Meanwhile, bearish technical indicators on the daily chart support prospects for an extension of the depreciating and will be reaffirmed on a sustained break below the 109.70-60 support zone.   •  Below the mentioned region, the pair is likely to accelerate the fall further towards 109.35 support before eventually dropping to test the 109.00 round figure mark and 108.75 horizontal level.USD/JPY daily chart 

Brazil Current Account came in at $-1.134B, below expectations ($0.383B) in February

Brazil Current Account came in at $-7.678B below forecasts ($0.383B) in February

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, the release of January GDP data will attract the most attention for the Canadian markets this week.

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, the release of January GDP data will attract the most attention for the Canadian markets this week.Key Quotes“Positive contributions are expected from the manufacturing sector and the wholesale sector based on previously-released reports for these indicators. That said, these contributions should be more than offset by slumping output in the oil sector - keep in mind that production cuts in Alberta came into effect during the month. Residential construction might also act as a drag on growth judging from a decline in starts in January.” “All told, we expect GDP to have shrink 0.1% in the month. We’ll also get data on January’s merchandise trade balance. Rising commodity prices during the month should translate into the first expansion in six months for nominal exports, a development that could lead to a reduction of the trade deficit to around C$3.5 billion. Lastly, Nova Scotia’s budget will be presented on Monday.”

The precious metal continued to gain value in dollar terms on Monday and came within a touching distance of its highest level since late February near

Chicago Fed National Activity Index edges lower in February.US Dollar Index struggles to stay strong above 96.50.10-year US T-bond yield erases early recovery gains.The precious metal continued to gain value in dollar terms on Monday and came within a touching distance of its highest level since late February near $1320. As of writing, the pair was trading at $1319, adding 0.42% on a daily basis. Today's first data release from the U.S. revealed that the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell to -0.29 in February from -0.25 in January. The US Dollar Index, which spent a large part of the day above 96.50, lost its traction and was last down 0.1% on the day at 96.45. Later in the session, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will be the last data of the day from the United States. In addition to the USD weakness, the 10-year Treasury bond yield reversed its course after posting modest recovery gains earlier in the day and ramped up the demand for traditional safe-havens by suggesting that markets are starting to move away from risky assets. At the moment, the 10-year yield is dangerously close to the 16-month low that it set on Friday and is losing 0.65% on the day. Reflecting the sour sentiment, Wall Street opened in the negative territory with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite losing 0.15% and 0.35%, respectively in the early trade.Key technical levels 

Citibank analysts are expecting the RBNZ Governor to keep monetary policy neutral this week. Key Quotes “Policy assessment should retain guidance th

Citibank analysts are expecting the RBNZ Governor to keep monetary policy neutral this week.Key Quotes“Policy assessment should retain guidance that the OCR will remain at 1.75% for the remainder of this year and 2020.”

The UK PM Theresa May's spokesman crossed the wires in the last hour and confirmed that May will make a Brexit statement to Parliament at 15:30 GMT. P

The UK PM Theresa May's spokesman crossed the wires in the last hour and confirmed that May will make a Brexit statement to Parliament at 15:30 GMT. PM May will only put Brexit deal to Commons vote if there is any prospect of success, the spokesman added further.
The BBC's Laura Kuessenberg reports that the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party refuses to support PM Theresa May's Brexit after a conversation between the leaders. GBP/USD is falling below 1.3200 after hitting a high of 1.3246 earlier in the day. -- more to come    

   •  News of a possible MV3 on Tuesday triggers a fresh leg of an upsurge on Monday.    •  Renewed USD selling bias provides an additional boost and

   •  News of a possible MV3 on Tuesday triggers a fresh leg of an upsurge on Monday.
   •  Renewed USD selling bias provides an additional boost and remained supportive.
The GBP/USD pair rallied around 80-85 pips and refreshed session tops, around mid-1.3200s in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through. Having touched a session low level of 1.3160, the pair witnessed a sudden intraday turnaround in reaction to news that the UK PM Theresa May will push ahead with MV3 on Tuesday, though was immediately denied by official sources and thus, kept a lid on any further up-move. Meanwhile, speculations that May might still struggle to pass the relevant legislation through the parliament further collaborated towards capping the intraday positive move. Hence, the key focus will be on Tuesday's possible vote and only after that she will consider indicative votes. With the incoming Brexit headlines turning out to be an exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the British Pound, a follow-through up-move, towards reclaiming the 1.3300 handle, now looks a distinct possibility amid some renewed US Dollar selling bias and absent relevant market moving economic releases.Technical levels to watch 

Prices of the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil are extending the leg lower although finding quite strong contention in t

Prices of WTI remains on the defensive albeit off lows.Global slowdown keeps weighing on crude oil.US oil rig count dropped by 9 during last week.Prices of the barrel of the American benchmark for the sweet light crude oil are extending the leg lower although finding quite strong contention in the $58.00 region.WTI weaker on growth fearsThe barrel of WTI keeps correcting lower on the back of persistent concerns over a global slowdown and its impact on the demand for crude oil and with China, the EU and the US in the centre of the debate. In this regard, latest PMIs figures in Euroland and the US point to some weakness in these economies, which have also added to the view of a slow pace of growth in the Chinese economy. In addition, declining US yields and the inversion of the curve also collaborates with the sour sentiment. Somewhat supporting prices, driller Baker Hughes reported its fifth consecutive weekly drop in oil rig count, taking US active oil rigs to 824 (from 873 seen at the beginning of the year). Later in the week, markets’ focus will be on the usual reports by the API (Tuesday) and the EIA (Wednesday) on crude oil inventories.What to look for around WTICrude oil has managed to retake the critical $60.00 mark per barrel on Thursday before sparking a correction lower. In spite of the ongoing correction in prices, the bullish view in crude oil remains well in place, always propped up by the so-called ‘Saudi put’, tight conditions in the US markets (amidst US net imports in historic low levels and the rising activity in refiners ahead of the summer session), the current OPEC+ agreement to cut oil output and ongoing US sanctions against Iranian and Venezuelan crude oil exports. Furthermore, the OPEC+ could announce an extension of the current agreement to curb oil production at the cartel’s meeting in June.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is losing 0.20% at $58.55 and faces immediate contention at $57.98 (low Mar.22) seconded by $57.31 (21-day SMA) and finally $54.37 (low Mar.8). On the other hand, a breakout of $60.03 (2019 high Mar.21) would open the door for $61.76 (200-day SMA) and then $63.74 (61.8% Fibo of the October-December drop).

"The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January," the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on M

"The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.29 in February from –0.25 in January," the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Monday.Key takeaways from the press releaseThe CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.05 in February from +0.12 in January. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI moved up to –0.16 in February from –0.29 in January.  Employment-related indicators contributed –0.10 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.07 in January. 

Axel Rudolph, senior analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the USD/TRY cross suddenly rallied to its current March high at 5.8449 before coming off

Axel Rudolph, senior analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the USD/TRY cross suddenly rallied to its current March high at 5.8449 before coming off again in the past week.Key Quotes“This week we expect the cross to remain below this level and the 5.8692/5.9068 resistance area, made up of the early October low and the late October high. If so, a slip back towards the 5.5454/40 mid-January highs is expected to take place.” “Further support is seen along the 200 day moving average at 5.4692 and also along the 55 day moving average at 5.3596. Above the 5.8692/5.9068 resistance area sit the January spike high at 6.0760 and also the October peak at 6.2282.”

"No 10 source just got in touch to say a 'final decision' hasn't been taken on MV3 tomorrow," ITV's political correspondent Paul Brand recently tweete

"No 10 source just got in touch to say a 'final decision' hasn't been taken on MV3 tomorrow," ITV's political correspondent Paul Brand recently tweeted out.  "Cabinet did discuss indicative votes, but understand there was no agreement (as you'd expect). Brexiteers were firmly against, others more in favour. Am told "no conclusive remarks" from the PM on whether or not to hold them, but MV3 is focus for now," Brand explained. "Stitching all this together, my source suggests the final date is "subject to conversations", i.e. with the DUP, but tomorrow is the current plan."

   •  The pair reversed a mid-European session dip to the 1.3400 neighbourhood and is currently placed at over two-week tops, coinciding with 61.8% Fi

   •  The pair reversed a mid-European session dip to the 1.3400 neighbourhood and is currently placed at over two-week tops, coinciding with 61.8% Fibo. level of the 1.3664-1.3086 recent downfall.   •  Given last week's solid bounce from a short-term resistance break-point-turned-support, bullish oscillators on the daily chart support prospects for an extension of the positive momentum.   •  A sustained move beyond the 1.3440 region will further reinforce the constructive set-up and lift the pair beyond monthly swing highs towards reclaiming the key 1.3500 psychological mark.   •  Hence, any meaningful pull-back might now be seen as a buying opportunity and should help limit the downside near 50% Fibo. level, around the 1.3070-65 region.USD/CAD Daily chart 

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index climbed from previous -0.43 to -0.29 in February

TD Securities analysts suggest that the EUR/USD pair is likely to stabilize after better-than-expected German IFO reading has taken some of the sting

TD Securities analysts suggest that the EUR/USD pair is likely to stabilize after better-than-expected German IFO reading has taken some of the sting out of last week dire German manufacturing PMI report.Key Quotes“It fits with our overall expectation that the region is on a (very) slow road to recovery, but one that will remain hesitant & uneven for some time.” “This should help EUR/USD stabilize further and reinforces the 1.1275 level as a key near-term support. That said, we do not have a huge amount of ambition to the topside.” “We remain of the view that the broader ranges are likely to hold for the foreseeable future as it has survived major assaults over the last couple of weeks from both directions.”  

After posting modest losses on Friday and closing flat on the weekly chart, the AUD/USD pair gained traction on Monday and was last seen trading near

Greenback goes into consolidation following last Friday's rally.Chinese premier Li says China can resist downwards pressure on the economy.After posting modest losses on Friday and closing flat on the weekly chart, the AUD/USD pair gained traction on Monday and was last seen trading near 0.7105, where it was up 0.32% on a daily basis. The improved market sentiment on Monday seems to be helping the risk-sensitive AUD gather some strength. Moreover, Chinese premier Li Keqiang earlier today said that China had the ability to resist downward pressure on the economy to provide additional support to the currency. There won't be any significant macroeconomic data releases from Australia this week and the market's risk perception and the USD's performance are likely to impact the pair's price action. Ahead of Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a tight daily range a little above 96.50. Moreover, the RBA's Assistant Governor Luci Ellis is scheduled to deliver a speech later in the day.Key technical levels 

According to ITV's political correspondent Paul Brand, British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to hold the third meaningful vote on her deal on

According to ITV's political correspondent Paul Brand, British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to hold the third meaningful vote on her deal on Tuesday.  "Understand PM going for Meaningful Vote 3 tomorrow. Only after that will she will consider indicative votes," Brand said via Twitter. With the initial market reaction, the GBP/USD pair advanced to a fresh session high of 1.3225 and was last seen trading at 1.3217, adding 0.06% on the day.

   •  The pair failed to capitalize/build on Friday's goodish up-move beyond the 1.3200 handle and came under some fresh selling pressure on the first

   •  The pair failed to capitalize/build on Friday's goodish up-move beyond the 1.3200 handle and came under some fresh selling pressure on the first trading day of the week.    •  The intraday uptick faced rejection at 200-hour SMA, coinciding with Friday's swing high, near the 1.3220 region, and might now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.   •  Currently holding near an ascending trend-line support, neutral technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have also failed to provide any firm intraday directional impetus.    •  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the mentioned trend-line or a decisive move beyond 200-hour SMA before confirming the pair’s intraday momentum. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart 

The renewed softer tone around the Japanese currency is giving extra wings to EUR/JPY to the area of 124.80, where seems to have found some resistance

The cross gains further ground on JPY weakness.Rebound in US yields keeps weighing on JPY.German IFO bettered estimates in March.The renewed softer tone around the Japanese currency is giving extra wings to EUR/JPY to the area of 124.80, where seems to have found some resistance.EUR/JPY bounces off sub-124.00 levelsAfter briefly testing fresh lows in sub-124.00 levels during early trade, the cross managed to regain some buying interest following a pick up in US yields, which in turn added to JPY depreciation. It is worth mentioning that yields of the US 10-year note plummeted to levels last seen in January 2018 around 2.42% on Friday, forcing USD/JPY to also breach the critical support at 110.00 the figure, just to pick up some pace afterwards. In the calendar, the German IFO unexpectedly came in on the strong side for the month of March, improving the sentiment around the shared currency and also collaborating with the up move.EUR/JPY relevant levelsAt the moment the cross is gaining 0.29% at 124.57 and faces the next up barrier at 125.23 (55-day SMA) seconded by 125.92 (21-day SMA) and finally 126.78 (high Mar.20). On the other hand, a breach of 123.82 (low Mar.22) would aim for 123.39 (low Jan.15) and then 118.82 (2019 low Jan.3).

Bannockburn analysts point out that the GBP has poked above pre-weekend high (~$1.3225) in early Asia & tried again in the European morning. Key Quot

Bannockburn analysts point out that the GBP has poked above pre-weekend high (~$1.3225) in early Asia & tried again in the European morning.Key Quotes“There is an unusually large sterling #option (GBP1.6 bln) struck at $1.3200 expires today and another one (GBP1.3 bln) at $1.3250 that will also be cut.” “Support is pegged near $1.3160. It remains vulnerable to headline risk.”

Additional comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker continue to cross the wires with key quotes, via Reuters, found below. Some valu

Additional comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker continue to cross the wires with key quotes, via Reuters, found below. Some value in US Fed inflation target not getting out of sync with the rest of the world. If we see a deep recession, would need to dip into unconventional monetary policy toolkit.

   •  The pair managed to stage a goodish intraday bounce from a short-term ascending trend-line, extending from lows set on March 11, 14 and 20, albe

   •  The pair managed to stage a goodish intraday bounce from a short-term ascending trend-line, extending from lows set on March 11, 14 and 20, albeit failed ahead of the 0.7100 mark.   •  The mentioned handle coincides with 50-hour SMA and might now act as a key pivotal point for the pair's intraday momentum amid neutral technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart.   •  Meanwhile, oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts have been losing positive momentum, rather just started gaining negative traction and support prospects for a further near-term downfall.   •  Bearish traders, however, are likely to wait for a convincing break below the said trend-line support before positioning for a slide towards challenging the key 0.70 psychological mark.AUD/USD 1-hourly chart 

The Sterling came under further downside pressure at the beginning of the week and has lifted EUR/GBP to fresh tops in the 0.8600 neighbourhood. EUR/

The cross advances further and tests the 0.8600 area.PM Theresa May’s government faces critical hours.UK Parliament looks to take control of Brexit negotiations.The Sterling came under further downside pressure at the beginning of the week and has lifted EUR/GBP to fresh tops in the 0.8600 neighbourhood.EUR/GBP looks to Brexit, UK governmentThe European cross is partially reversing Friday’s sharp pullback, although the bullish attempt appears to have met a tough resistance around the 0.8600 milestone. Crucial days for the British Pound lies ahead, as a third meaningful vote on PM May’s plan to leave the UK (MV3) is expected later in the week (Tuesday?). However, the focus of attention has now shifted to the increasing political effervescence surrounding May’s government and intentions of the Parliament to take over Brexit negotiations. In the meantime, PM May will meet with her Cabinet later today prior to a discuss of her recent trip to Brussels at the House of Commons. Furthermore, Wednesday could be a key day as the House of Commons is expected to vote on a series of ‘indicative votes’ put forward by MPs O.Letwin, D.Grieve and H.Benn which aim to take over the negotiations. A progress of this motion carries the potential to open the door for PM May to step down.What to look for around GBPUpcoming discussions at the House of Commons will be key for the performance in the Sterling and the Brexit negotiations, including the palpable possibility that Theresa May could resign as Prime Minister. A third meaningful vote (MV3) is expected at some point later in the week, while May continues to seek support for her plan among MPs.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is gaining 0.29% at 0.8577 facing the next hurdle at 0.8706 (55-day SMA) seconded by 0.8722 (high Mar.22) and finally 0.8839 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, the breach of 0.8532 (low Mar.22) would expose 0.8471 (2019 low Mar.13) and then 0.8402 (monthly low Feb.22 2017).

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team suggests that a slowdown in the US economy, reflecting the disruption to the manufacturing sector caused by

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team suggests that a slowdown in the US economy, reflecting the disruption to the manufacturing sector caused by the trade spat with China will rein in the Fed in the near term.Key Quotes“A partial government shutdown has exacerbated the situation. The US federal government was shut down from 22 December 2018 to 25 January 2019. The economists are also expecting a sharper slowing in the economy in 2020 than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does to 1.7 percent versus the FOMC's 1.9 percent.” "These factors will keep them on hold both this year and next," the CIO team says. "That said, we see the bar for a rate cut —which the market has priced – as very high and a rate cut as unlikely."

Analysts at TD Securities explain that for the German economy, in contrast to March PMIs, the IFO survey beat expectations and saw modest moves higher

Analysts at TD Securities explain that for the German economy, in contrast to March PMIs, the IFO survey beat expectations and saw modest moves higher across all three indexes.Key Quotes“Expectations in particular rebounded almost 2 points to 95.6, marking a 3 month high. Still, sentiment remains well below previous highs, and it will take a series of further increases to be a convincing turnaround.”

CIBC Capital Markets analysts suggest that there’s a lot of data due in the week ahead for the US economy but most of it of secondary importance. Key

CIBC Capital Markets analysts suggest that there’s a lot of data due in the week ahead for the US economy but most of it of secondary importance.Key Quotes“We would keep an eye on January consumption spending, where we need to see at least some rebound from December’s dive, but might be disappointed in the magnitude.” “There are several Fed speakers, & remember that there were still six “dots” representing FOMC members who expected one or 2 hikes this year, & none called for a cut. So don’t expect speeches, on average, to be as dovish as current market expectations.”

Adding to his earlier comments, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker was further noted saying that the   market has priced in less optimism than

Adding to his earlier comments, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker was further noted saying that the   market has priced in less optimism than the FOMC and sees the neutral rate as being one or two moves away.Additional quotes:   •  Still doesn't see circumstances for a rate hike in the short-term.
   •  Dot plots, not a commitment to what the Fed will do.
   •  Says inflation is not running out of control.
   •  Would want to see inflation rise and stay above 2% for a bit before hiking this year.
   •  Would also need to see a strong labour market.
   •  Shortage of labour to fill job vacancies is one of the biggest risks to US growth.

Adding to his earlier comments about the European Central Bank (ECB) not being at a time limit of what it can do on monetary policy, ECB Governing Cou

Adding to his earlier comments about the European Central Bank (ECB) not being at a time limit of what it can do on monetary policy, ECB Governing Council member Benoit Coeure said that the fall below 0% witnessed in German bond yields had more to do with excess savings rather than monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker has recently crossed the wires saying that he was favouring one rate hike 'at most' this

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker has recently crossed the wires saying that he was favouring one rate hike 'at most' this year and one in 2020.Key quotes (via Reuters)Balance sheet will not likely hold primarily treasuries 'for some time'. Expects GDP a bit above 2% in 2019, returning to trend around 2% in 2020. Economic risks tilt very slightly to the downside, outlook is 'pretty good'.

After losing nearly 80 pips last week, the USD/CHF pair started the new week in a calm manner and now trades in a very narrow band amid a lack of fres

US Dollar Index stays calm near mid-96s.European stocks trade mixed on Monday.Coming up: Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index from the U.S.After losing nearly 80 pips last week, the USD/CHF pair started the new week in a calm manner and now trades in a very narrow band amid a lack of fresh fundamental drivers. At the moment, the pair was up only 4 pips on the day at 0.9938. The US Dollar Index, which staged a decisive rebound after posting heavy losses amid the FOMC's dovish tone, is also having a tough time setting its next short-term direction and is moving sideways near 96.50. Later in the session, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Index will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Meanwhile, following last Friday's sharp drop, the 10-year US T-bond yield is posting modest recovery gains on Monday, suggesting that the market sentiment is slightly more positive especially when compared to the second half of the previous week. European equity indexes are staying close to their opening levels in the session to confirm that the risk-aversion has lost its control over the market action.Technical levels to consider 

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Benoit Coeure is on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the central bank’s monetary pol

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Benoit Coeure is on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the central bank’s monetary policy while delivering a speech in Lisbon. Coeure said that the ECB is not at the limit of what it can do yet on monetary policy. Last hour, the ECB policymaker Hansson said that the QE programme could be restarted in the event of a major shock.

In an interview with broadcaster Sky News on Monday, the UK’s Work and Pensions Minister Amber Rudd noted that the UK Prime Minister Theresa May shoul

In an interview with broadcaster Sky News on Monday, the UK’s Work and Pensions Minister Amber Rudd noted that the UK Prime Minister Theresa May should not quit in the face of the opposition from her own party members over her management of the Brexit process, Reuters reports. Rudd said: “I think the prime minister is doing the right thing, thinking about the national interest, about this country and trying to end this chaos by getting this agreement through.”  May remained committed to trying to get her Brexit deal through parliament this week, Rudd added.

Reuters reports the latest comments by IFO economist, Klaus Wohlrabe, following the release of the German IFO business survey. Figures support German

Reuters reports the latest comments by IFO economist, Klaus Wohlrabe, following the release of the German IFO business survey.Figures support German GDP growth forecast of 0.6% for 2019. Brexit is a burden on Germany's industrial sector. Global economy not providing any support for German economy.

Amidst dozens of fresh Brexit/ UK political headlines crossing the wires so far this Monday, the pound buyers remain wary over the likely end to the o

Cable loses ground amid Brexit/ UK political uncertainty and risk-off markets.Fresh Brexit headlines eyed ahead of today’s indicative votes and Fedspeaks.Amidst dozens of fresh Brexit/ UK political headlines crossing the wires so far this Monday, the pound buyers remain wary over the likely end to the ongoing Brexit saga, with the GBP/USD pair now back in the red zone below the 1.32 handle. The spot the early European bounce to 1.3218 highs following the latest reports that the UK PM Theresa May urging her camp to vote for her Brexit deal, including the backstop, in exchange for her resignation from the Prime Minister’s position. This comes after many senior lawmakers from her Conservatives party plotted a coup to oust PM Theresa May, as they are not pleased by the management of the Brexit process.  Meanwhile, markets await the details of the advance briefing that’s underway ahead of the Cabinet meeting due at 1000 GMT for fresh incentives on the spot, as the PM is urged to set her own exit date to get the Brexit deal heading into the indicative votes scheduled later today. Further, the higher-yielding currency, the GBP, also tumbles in tandem with the UK stocks that remain weighed down by the mounting fears of a recession in the Euro area as well as in the US, as the risk-off sentiment remains one of the key drivers amid a lack of fresh first-tier macro news from both the UK and the US docket today.GBP/USD Technical Levels   

   •  Despite showing some resilience near 50-day SMA, the cross struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained within striking distance o

   •  Despite showing some resilience near 50-day SMA, the cross struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained within striking distance of near two-week lows set last Thursday.   •  Given that the cross has already broken through a 2-1/2 month ascending trend-line, the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction point to further downside.   •  Hence, any attempted bounce towards the 146.00 handle seems more likely to be used as selling opportunities for an eventual test of the 143.75-70 region en-route the 143.00 round figure mark.GBP/JPY daily chart   

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German Ifo index surged to 99.6, up from 98.5 in February, which is the highest level this yea

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German Ifo index surged to 99.6, up from 98.5 in February, which is the highest level this year and after posting six consecutive drops, the index has just sent a tentative signal of relief for the economy.Key Quotes“Both the expectations and the current assessment component increased. Particularly, the sharp improvement in the expectations component to 95.6, from 93.8, provides moderate optimism.” “Looking at the bigger picture, manufacturing lost much more momentum than the services sector. Needless to say that cars play an important role in this development. The manufacturing sector has been on a downward trend since last August, dragging the entire economy down. In fact, the German economy is currently suffering from a strange and also unique combination of homemade one-off factors such as the delayed introduction of new emission standards in the automotive sector or low water levels which prevented dropping global oil prices from reaching consumers but also a series of external uncertainties.” “Looking ahead, today’s Ifo index ends a period of pessimism and suggests that not all is bad in the German economy. With some (technical) rebounds in industrial production in February and March, the first quarter for the German economy might not be as weak as some have expected.”

These are the main highlights of the latest CFTC report for the week ended on March 19. Speculators continued to trim their net shorts in the Sterl

These are the main highlights of the latest CFTC report for the week ended on March 19. Speculators continued to trim their net shorts in the Sterling during the past week, taking the positions to the lowest level since June 12 2018. This move is coincident with the pick up in Cable in past weeks and the somewhat renewed optimism around Brexit. On the USD-side, net longs retreated to the lowest level since July 24 2018 prior to the FOMC meeting and amidst the already dovish view on the buck prevailing among traders. Of note is the up move in speculative RUB net longs, advancing to the highest level since early November 2016. The better tone in the EM FX space, carry trade and improved fundamentals appear to prop up the move. Closer to home, EUR net shorts rose to 2-week lows as market participants continued to gauge the last ECB event.

Wells Fargo research team points out that for the Eurozone economy, fears of a recession were back in the headlines on Friday after a series of disapp

Wells Fargo research team points out that for the Eurozone economy, fears of a recession were back in the headlines on Friday after a series of disappointing PMI figures from the currency bloc.Key Quotes“We are not convinced that the Eurozone economy is headed for recession, but it is hard to get particularly excited about the region's economic prospects, or the prospects for the euro, at this point.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Ardo Hansson crossed the wires in the last hour, via Bloomberg, saying that the Euro-zone economic slowdow

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Ardo Hansson crossed the wires in the last hour, via Bloomberg, saying that the Euro-zone economic slowdown may continue in the medium-term and that the QE could be restarted in the event of a major shock.Additional quotes:   •  Expects TLTRO-3 terms to be a bit less generous.
   •  Tiered deposit rate hasn't really been discussed.

Societé Generale analysts suggests that the sterling is likely to remain choppy and potentially untradeable in the week ahead. Key Quotes “CFTC data

Societé Generale analysts suggests that the sterling is likely to remain choppy and potentially untradeable in the week ahead.Key Quotes“CFTC data, now updated to last Tuesday, show a small net short overall as market squares its books. That's not surprising but suggests we will see choppy trading.” “There's a Cabinet meeting today, which will probably see a decision not to have a 3rd meaningful vote on PMs unpopular Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow.” “A series of ‘indicative votes' are likely on Wed to test the water & see what could be successfully pushed through parliament and the PM probably hopes this will convince Brexiteers that her Agreement is preferable to a long delay to Brexit.” “A ‘No deal' exit remains possible, in large part because if nothing else is agreed, that's what happens by default.”

EUR/USD is now accelerating the upside and clinches fresh daily highs beyond 1.1320 in the wake of German data. EUR/USD bid after data The buying in

The pair pushes higher on positive German data.German IFO surprised to the upside in March.Spot met support in the 1.1290/85 band.EUR/USD is now accelerating the upside and clinches fresh daily highs beyond 1.1320 in the wake of German data.EUR/USD bid after dataThe buying interest around the shared currency continues to pick up pace at the beginning of the week and is now reinforced by the positive surprise from the recently published German data. In fact, the IFO indicator saw Business Climate, Current Assessment and Business Expectations all coming in above expectations for the month of March, showing a rebound from the recent downtrend.What to look for around EURMarket participants have left behind the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends, USD-dynamics and domestic data. Regarding the latter, and looking to the broader picture, the view of a slowdown in the bloc has been ‘confirmed’ last week following disappointing advanced PMIs in core Euroland. This, in turn, should add to the idea of a ‘patient for longer’ stance from the ECB. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.16% at 1.1318 and a breakout of 1.1323 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1359 (100-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.1273 (low Mar.22) seconded by 1.1234 (low Feb.15) and finally 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12).

The headline German Ifo business climate index came in at 99.6 in March, stronger than last month's 98.5 and surpassed the consensus estimates pointin

The headline German Ifo business climate index came in at 99.6 in March, stronger than last month's 98.5 and surpassed the consensus estimates pointing to 98.7. Meanwhile, the current economic assessment bettered estimates, arriving at 103.8 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 103.4 and 102.9 anticipated. The Ifo Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months beat markets expectations by a big margin, arriving at 95.6 for March versus expectations of 94.0 and 93.8 recorded in February. The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Germany IFO - Expectations above expectations (94) in March: Actual (95.6)

Germany IFO - Current Assessment above forecasts (102.9) in March: Actual (103.8)

Germany IFO - Business Climate above expectations (98.5) in March: Actual (99.6)

   •  A subdued USD price action fails to assist build on last week’s goodish up-move.    •  A modest pull-back in oil prices undermines Loonie and he

   •  A subdued USD price action fails to assist build on last week’s goodish up-move.
   •  A modest pull-back in oil prices undermines Loonie and helped limit the downtick.
The USD/CAD pair struggled to capitalize on the early uptick to fresh two-week tops and dropped to session low in the last hour, albeit managed to hold its neck above 1.3400 handle. A subdued US Dollar price action failed to assist the pair to build on last week's goodish up-move of around 180-pips from the very important 200-day SMA, which got an additional boost from Friday's disappointing Canadian monthly retail sales data.  However, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields extended some support to the USD, which coupled with a pull-back in crude oil prices further undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and helped limit any meaningful corrective slide.  It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to attract any buying interest at lower levels and retain its near-term bullish bias or witness some additional long-unwinding/profit-taking move amid absent relevant market moving economic releases on Monday.Technical levels to watchWeakness below the 1.3400 mark could get extended towards the 1.3370-65 intermediate support en-route the 1.3335-30 region. On the flip side, momentum beyond the 1.3440 area has the potential to lift the pair towards multi-month tops, around the 1.3465-70 region, ahead of the key 1.3500 psychological mark.
 

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/GBP cross has seen complete rejection from the 55 day ma at .8707, which leaves the atten

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/GBP cross has seen complete rejection from the 55 day ma at .8707, which leaves the attention on the .8471 recent low and there is a risk of a slide to the 200 week ma at .8397.Key Quotes“Initial resistance lies at .8722 (22nd February high) and.8842 (200 day ma). While capped here, a negative bias remains.” “The market is expected to struggle on rallies to the 200 day ma at .8842, and only above here allows for a move to the October .8941 high, which is expected to contain the topside.”

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that they are seeing the risk to Norges Banks picture as balanced and hence believe in a June

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that they are seeing the risk to Norges Banks picture as balanced and hence believe in a June hike, after the central bank has signalled a June hike if development is in line with forecast.Key Quotes“In its new rate path Norges Bank indicates that that the next rate hike most likely occurs already in June, as opposed to September in the old path. Taking the path seriously, rates will be hiked again in June if the economy in sum develops as expected. However, with a path not fully consistent with a June hike, Norges Bank signals that it will not take that much of negative surprises to postpone the hike.” “Norges Bank moved the first hike forward due to a much brighter outlook for the domestic economy and a weaker than expected NOK. Norges Bank raised its 2019 forecast for mainland GDP growth, employment, core inflation and wage growth, and this more than counteracted a rather sharp downward revision to its view on growth among trading partners.” “To a large degree, we share Norges Bank’s new and more optimistic view and see the risk to its forecast as rather balanced.” “After a hike in June we now forecast a next hike in December 2019 and then two more hikes in 2020.”  

Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 8.2% in January

Reuters is out with the latest headlines on Brexit, citing that the UK Cabinet Ministers are said to meet at 0900 GMT for advanced briefing on the ind

Reuters is out with the latest headlines on Brexit, citing that the UK Cabinet Ministers are said to meet at 0900 GMT for advanced briefing on the indicative votes that will be held later today. Also Read: UK PM May tells Brexiters that she will quit if they vote for her Brexit deal – ITV                   UK Trade Sec Fox: There is a mood in the House to stop no-deal, even if it means no Brexit

Standard Chartered analysts point out that in the first electoral test of support for Erdogan, Turkey is going to hold local elections on 31 March to

Standard Chartered analysts point out that in the first electoral test of support for Erdogan, Turkey is going to hold local elections on 31 March to choose mayors, provincial and municipal councillors and other local officials.Key Quotes“Like the last local elections in 2014, key will be the results in the three largest cities: Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Ankara, and even more so Istanbul – Erdogan’s hometown and the largest city by far – are viewed as essential for the AKP to retain. These are the last scheduled elections until June 2023.” “Much is at stake for the post-election economic and funding outlook, in our view. First, policy makers’ commitment to tight fiscal policy after the elections will be tested. The fiscal stance loosened ahead of elections to counter the impact of the recession that saw the unemployment rate nearing global financial crisis levels. Second, Turkey faces a funding balancing act in 2019, in our view, despite a smaller current account deficit as weaker demand has led to import compression. Portfolio inflows have yet to recover to pre-currency crisis levels and external funding remains vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.” “Third, the central bank (CBRT) will likely cut interest rates after the elections (we see the first cut in H2-2019) on softening inflation and a more benign global backdrop. A more ‘patient’ US Fed provides room for the CBRT to prioritise domestic factors, such as the recession and its impact on banking-sector asset quality.”

   •  The prevalent risk-off mood continues to underpin the commodity’s safe-haven demand.    •  A subdued USD price-action provides an additional boo

   •  The prevalent risk-off mood continues to underpin the commodity’s safe-haven demand.
   •  A subdued USD price-action provides an additional boost and remained supportive.
Gold reversed an Asian session dip to $1311 area and has now moved within striking distance of the post-FOMC swing highs, or three-week tops.  The precious metal built on last week's goodish up-move of over 1%, also marking its third consecutive weekly gains and remained supported by reviving safe-haven demand amid growing fears of a slowing global economic growth, as indicated by the inversion of the US bond yield curve for the first time since 2007.  Indications of recession sent global stocks lower on Friday and the sell-off extended through the early European session on Monday, which eventually turned out to be one of the key factors underpinning the precious metal's safe-haven demand for the second straight session.  Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar price action provided an additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity and remained supportive of the ongoing positive momentum back closer to three-week tops touched in reaction to a more dovish FOMC policy update. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to play a key role in influencing the commodity's momentum on the first day of a new trading week. Technical levels to watch 

British Trade Secretary Liam Fox was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the deadline of April 11 for the EU election decision will help fo

British Trade Secretary Liam Fox was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that the deadline of April 11 for the EU election decision will help focus the minds in the Parliament.Additional quotes:   •  Possibility we do not leave at all, leading to a constitutional crisis.
   •  Asked about indicative votes - we operate under other constraints.
   •  Not clear if Conservative voters want to change the PM.
   •  There is a mood in the House to stop no-deal, even if it means no Brexit.
   •  Do not believe that the country has changed its mind on Brexit.
   •  Waiting to see if DUP has changed their decision.

Turkey Capacity Utilization up to 74.3% in March from previous 74%

Turkey Manufacturing Confidence up to 102.1 in March from previous 97.2

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1299 Today Daily Change 26 Today Daily C

The pair dropped to the 1.1270 area on Friday, where it seems to have found some decent support for the time being.Last week, EUR/USD failed around the key 5-month resistance line and further decline remains a chance while below this relevant area, today at 1.1407.On the upside, spot needs to clear the area of recent tops beyond 1.1400 the figure to mitigate downside pressure and allow for a potential move to the 1.1500 neighbourhood and beyond.EUR/USD daily chart  

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 96.58 Today Daily Change 13 Today Da

The index is adding to recent gains above the key 96.00 handle, navigating the 96.60 zone of congestion where converge the 10-say, 21-day and 100-day SMAs.While above the critical 200-day SMA at 95.86, a new visit to the 97.00 neighbourhood remains well on the cards.Further up aligns mid-February peaks near 97.40 ahead of 2019 highs in the 97.70/75 band.DXY daily chart  

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY pair has eroded the 55 day ma and the 2 month uptrend at 110.25/33 and the sell-off looks to

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY pair has eroded the 55 day ma and the 2 month uptrend at 110.25/33 and the sell-off looks to be corrective but so far is complete.Key Quotes“The next corrective ‘target’ is the 38.2% retracement at 109.06 and there is scope for the 50% retracement at 108.11. The base of the cloud lies at 108.90.” “Immediate resistance is 111.45 200 day ma, the 112.13 March high and 112.23, the 6th December low, the 112.43 55 quarter moving average and recent high at 113.71. We have a 5 month resistance line also at 113.01.”

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, it's a relatively quiet start to the week with the only data releases being the Spanish February's PPI, March'

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, it's a relatively quiet start to the week with the only data releases being the Spanish February's PPI, March's IFO survey results in Germany and from the US, the February Chicago Fed national activity index and March Dallas Fed manufacturing index.Key Quotes“Away from the data, the Fed's Evans speaks early morning in Hong Kong while the BoJ's Kuroda, ECB's Costa and Coeure, and the Fed's Harker are also due to speak during the day.”“Tuesday: In terms of data, we'll get the April GfK consumer confidence in Germany, March confidence and production outlook indicator in France along with final 4Q GDP and February finance loans for housing in the UK. In the US, there'll be the February housing starts and building permits, January FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic HPI data, and March Richmond Fed manufacturing index and Conference Board confidence indicators. Regarding central banks, the Fed's Rosengren and Evans are both due to speak in the morning in Hong Kong while the BOE's Broadbent and Fed's Harker and Daly are also due to speak during the day.”“Wednesday: It’s a busy day for ECB speakers with President Draghi, Vice-President Guindos and governing council members Nowotny, Praet, Lautenschlaeger, Mersch and Villeroy all due to speak during the day at different events in Frankfurt, Vienna and Geneva. Looking at the data releases, we'll have China's February industrial profits, France's February PPI and March consumer confidence, the UK's March CBI retailing sales data, along with the latest weekly mortgage applications, January trade balance and 4Q current account balance all in the US. In central bank speakers, the Fed's George will speak to Money Marketeers of New York.”“Thursday: Trade talks between the US and China will recommence with Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin visiting China. Datawise, we will get preliminary March CPI for Germany and Spain, March confidence indicators for the Euro-area and final 4Q GDP print in the US along with latest weekly initial jobless and continuing claims, February pending home sales and March’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index. Late in the evening we will get Japan's unemployment rate, February industrial production and retail sales data. It's again a busy day for central bank speaks with ECB's Guindos and Villeroy, and Fed's Clarida, Quarles, Williams and Bullard all due to speak.”“Friday: It's a busy end to the week with a host of data releases lined up. The key highlight of the day is likely to be the preliminary March CPI releases in France, Italy and the Euro-area along with the release of January Core PCE data in the US and final 4Q GDP in the UK and Spain. Besides, we will also be getting France's February YTD budget balance and Feb consumer spending data, Germany's March employment report, Italy's February PPI and the UK's February consumer credit, money supply and mortgage approvals data. In the US, we will get the February personal income, personal spending and new home sales data along with March Chicago purchasing manager index and final March University of Michigan survey results. We will also get China's February current account balance sometime during the day. Aside from the data, ECB's Coeure and Fed's Quarles are also due to speak, while trade talks between the US and China will continue.”

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 124.46 Today Daily Change 65 Today Daily C

EUR/JPY is managing to start the week on a firm note following three consecutive daily retracements.The cross sold off from last week’s highs near 126.80 to sub-124.00 levels on Friday, at the same time breaking below the key short-term support line and opening the door for extra pullbacks.A sustained breakdown of this area (124.50) should open the door for a deeper drop to the 123.40 region, lows seen in mid-January.EUR/JPY daily chart  

Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 1.8% to 8.2% in January

According to ITV news, the UK PM Theresa May was reported to have told Brexiters - Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith, Steve Baker, Jacob Rees Mogg, Dav

According to ITV news, the UK PM Theresa May was reported to have told Brexiters - Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith, Steve Baker, Jacob Rees Mogg, David Davis at Chequers meeting that she will quit if they vote for her deal, including the backstop.

More comments are flowing in from the Chicago Fed President Evans on the US monetary policy, as he now speaks in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Not

More comments are flowing in from the Chicago Fed President Evans on the US monetary policy, as he now speaks in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Not surprising that yield curves tend to be flatter. Yield curves have showed a slightly higher chance of recession. Q1 growth looks like it's going to be weaker. Expects a rebound in economic activity in Q2. Monetary policy is almost at a neutral level.

Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin was on the wires recently, via Reuters, making some optimistic remarks on the indicative votes. Key Points: “We ne

Conservative MP Sir Oliver Letwin was on the wires recently, via Reuters, making some optimistic remarks on the indicative votes.Key Points:“We need to establish what kind of solution could secure a cross-party majority.” Does not know if indicative votes will work. But optimistic that a solution can be found through it.

The German IFO Business Survey Overview The German IFO survey for March is slated for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business Clim

The German IFO Business Survey OverviewThe German IFO survey for March is slated for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to rise slightly to 98.7 versus 98.5 previous. The Current Assessment sub-index is seen weaker at 102.9 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 94.0 in the reported month vs. 93.8 last.Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.  How could affect EUR/USD?The spot looks to test the 1.1250 psychological level on downbeat IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could rebound to 1.1335-50 levels on a positive surprise.   According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “A follow-through weakness below Friday's swing low, around the 1.1275-70 region, will further reinforce the bearish set-up and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall further towards the 1.1220-15 intermediate support en-route the 1.1200 handle. On the flip side, the 1.1330-35 region now seems to act as an immediate resistance and is followed by the 1.1365-70 area, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards surpassing the 1.1400 round figure mark.”Key NotesMarkets: German IFO and NZ trade balance in focus – TDS EUR/USD is tilted to the downside in short term – Danske Bank EUR futures: further rangebound likelyAbout the German IFO Business ClimateThis German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The shared currency has managed to fade part of the recent pessimism and is now helping EUR/USD to regain the area above 1.1300 the figure, or daily h

The pair moves higher and visits 1.1310, daily highs.The greenback remains sidelined around 96.60.German IFO coming up next in the calendar.The shared currency has managed to fade part of the recent pessimism and is now helping EUR/USD to regain the area above 1.1300 the figure, or daily highs.EUR/USD focused on IFOThe pair is posting some decent gains after two consecutive daily pullbacks, meeting dip-buyers and reclaiming the 1.1300 handle and beyond. Poor prints from advanced PMIs in core Euroland in combination with a pick up in the demand for the greenback sent spot lower during the second half of last week. The sharp correction came after the pair clinched multi-week highs in the mid-1.1400s following the FOMC event last Wednesday. Moving forward, the key German IFO indicator is due later in the European calendar, while investors’ attention remain on the Brexit negotiations and fresh market chatter on the recent inversion of the US 3m-10y yield curve.What to look for around EURMarket participants have left behind the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends, USD-dynamics and domestic data. Regarding the latter, and looking to the broader picture, the view of a slowdown in the bloc has been ‘confirmed’ last week following disappointing advanced PMIs in core Euroland. This, in turn, should add to the idea of a ‘patient for longer’ stance from the ECB. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.06% at 1.1307 and a breakout of 1.1323 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1359 (100-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.1273 (low Mar.22) seconded by 1.1234 (low Feb.15) and finally 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12).

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the GBP/USD pair has eased back to and recovered from the 55 day ma last week as it has held over t

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the GBP/USD pair has eased back to and recovered from the 55 day ma last week as it has held over the 200 day ma at 1.2980 and for now suggest that they will continue to favour the topside.Key Quotes“The market recently challenged the 1.3363 July 2018 high, reaching 1.3382 before failing. Provided that dips lower are contained by the 200 day ma, our overall target remains the 1.3563 200 week ma.” “Below the 200 day ma lies the double Fibo retracement at 1.2900/1.2895. This guards the recent low at 1.2772.”

The comments from the Chicago Fed President Evans continue to cross the wires, as he is speaking at a conference in Hong Kong. Rates are at a decent

The comments from the Chicago Fed President Evans continue to cross the wires, as he is speaking at a conference in Hong Kong. Rates are at a decent place, this is a good time to pause. Global growth concerns another reason to hold policy. China slowdown adds to worries on global outlook. Negative shock risk not unusually higher or lower. Low inflation expectations call for policy to be paused. Nervous that CPI pressures aren't stronger.

   •  Initial signs of stability in the financial markets prompted some short-covering.    •  Fears of slowing global growth might keep a lid on any m

   •  Initial signs of stability in the financial markets prompted some short-covering.
   •  Fears of slowing global growth might keep a lid on any meaningful up-move.
Having refreshed multi-week lows, the USD/JPY pair witnessed a modest rebound and is now looking to build on the momentum further beyond the key 110.00 psychological mark. The pair extended last week's post-FOMC downfall and remained under some heavy selling pressure on Friday, weighed down heavily by reviving safe-haven demand amid growing fears of slowing global growth. A closely-watched indicator for recession - inversion of the US Treasury bond yield curve, appeared following another round of disappointing Euro-zone economic data and triggered a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade. The same was evident from a sharp fall in the US equity markets, which provided a strong boost to the Japanese Yen's relative safe-haven status and dragged the pair below the 110.00 handle for the first time since mid-February. With investors still digesting the latest indicators of an economic recession, some initial signs of stability in the global financial markets extended some support, rather prompted some short-covering on Monday. The uptick, however, lacked any strong bullish conviction and remained capped on the back of a subdued US Dollar price action as traders still await fresh developments in the US-China trade negotiations. In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the broader market risk sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to act as key determinants of the pair's momentum on the first day of a new trading week.Technical outlookOmkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor explained: “The relative strength index (RSI), however, is now reporting oversold conditions. So, the pair could consolidate around 110.00 for a few hours or may witness a minor bounce to 110.20 before extending the drop toward 109.50.”
 

In view of Khoon Goh, analyst at ANZ, Singapore’s lower than expected MAS Core Inflation print, which eased to 1.5% y/y in February from 1.7% the mont

In view of Khoon Goh, analyst at ANZ, Singapore’s lower than expected MAS Core Inflation print, which eased to 1.5% y/y in February from 1.7% the month before, cements the case for a pause at the upcoming MAS April review, in their view.Key Quotes“Alongside economic growth slowing towards trend and the US Federal Reserve signalling a pause in their hiking cycle, there is no pressing need for the MAS to further tighten policy at this stage.” “While a tight labour market could still see inflation pressures emerge, this is not evident, especially in the costs of services. Lower prices for electricity and gas in the coming quarter look set to keep core inflation manageable.”

Open interest in JPY futures markets increased by around 1.2K contracts on Friday. In the same line, volume increased by almost 66K contracts, reverti

Open interest in JPY futures markets increased by around 1.2K contracts on Friday. In the same line, volume increased by almost 66K contracts, reverting the previous drop.USD/JPY looks to test 109.00Friday’s down move in USD/JPY was on the back of rising both open interest and volume, a sign that could morph into extra JPY strength and a probable visit to the 109.00 neighbourhood in the near term.

The European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici is reported by Reuters, as saying that “I still believe we can avoid a n

The European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici is reported by Reuters, as saying that “I still believe we can avoid a no deal Brexit”. No further comments are reported so far. Also Read: Brexit: Ministers tipped to replace Theresa May rally round                   UK PM May is expected to unveil plans to hold indicative votes

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets from CME Group noted open interest increased by just 181 contracts on Friday from the previous day. On the ot

Advanced figures for GBP futures markets from CME Group noted open interest increased by just 181 contracts on Friday from the previous day. On the other hand, volume reversed two consecutive builds and shrunk by more than 47K contracts.GBP/USD could now target 1.3000Cable’s strong rebound on Friday was in tandem with another uptick albeit small one in open interest while volume retreated significantly. The door now appears open for a potential down move to the critical support at 1.3000 the figure in the near term.

   •  A modest USD downtick helps reverse an early Asian session dip.    •  Recession fears/US-China trade uncertainty seemed to cap gains.  The AUD/

   •  A modest USD downtick helps reverse an early Asian session dip.
   •  Recession fears/US-China trade uncertainty seemed to cap gains. 
The AUD/USD pair managed to rebound around 15-20 pips from Asian session lows and is currently placed at the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.7080-85 region. The pair stalled last week's sharp retracement slide from three-week tops and managed to find some support ahead of the pre-FOMC swing lows amid a modest US Dollar downtick, though fears of a recession might keep a lid on any meaningful up-move.  The inversion of the US Treasury bond yield curve, a closely-watched indicator for recession, appeared on Friday following another round of disappointing Euro-zone economic data, added to concerns of a weakening global growth.  With traders still awaiting developments in the US-China trade talks, a fresh wave of global risk-aversion trade, as depicted by a sea of red across equity markets, should continue to benefit the greenback's relative safe-haven status and cap any further gains. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further positive momentum for the pair amid absent relevant market moving US economic releases at the start of a new trading week. Technical levels to watch 

Analysts at Goldman Sachs argue that the Australian yield curve could flatten in the near-term, as the investors are pricing in too much at the front

Analysts at Goldman Sachs argue that the Australian yield curve could flatten in the near-term, as the investors are pricing in too much at the front end of the curve, in light of Australia's 10-year bond yields having dropped to a record low earlier today.Key Quotes:"With the unemployment rate at decade lows at 4.9% we continue to think the market is discounting too much at the very front end. The RBA may eventually be drawn into a cutting cycle should data deteriorate from here, but relative to current pricing we think risk-reward favours curve flatteners.”

Aila Mihr, analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that with a US-China trade deal postponed, focus for majors is clearly on where the global and the Europea

Aila Mihr, analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that with a US-China trade deal postponed, focus for majors is clearly on where the global and the European cycle are heading and focus today will be on the German Ifo numbers.Key Quotes“EUR/USD has been supported in recent weeks by rate spreads moving in its favour, but towards the end of last week sentiment clearly shifted despite - or rather due to - a dovish Fed.” “Recession fears have clearly come back with a vengeance with the inversion of the US curve on Friday and to the extent that markets are grabbed near term by fears of a wider and deeper global slowdown. The scope for this to hit the EUR negatively is tangible in our view: the Fed is already priced for cuts, whereas the ECB is one of the few central banks that is effectively open for repricing in a softer direction given its option of restarting QE.” “We continue to see risks in EUR/USD tilted to the downside short term and the plethora of Fed and ECB speakers this week could prove instrumental in this respect.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair has tried to break up from a falling wedge pattern, but the market faltered ahead

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the EUR/USD pair has tried to break up from a falling wedge pattern, but the market faltered ahead of initial resistance at the 200 day ma at 1.1476 and has gone into consolidation mode.Key Quotes“We suspect that it is trying to base but need to do more work – once above the 200 day ma this will target the 1.1570 January high together with the 55 week ma at 1.1610. We view 1.1176 as an interim low in place. Initial support lies at 1.1216 November low ahead of 1.1176 low.” “Long term trend (1-3 months): Completed a falling wedge – target the 55 week ma. Then the 1.1815 September 2018 high on route to 1.20.”  

Additional headlines are crossing the wires from the Chicago Fed President Evans, citing that he has a hard time seeing strong price pressures. Last

Additional headlines are crossing the wires from the Chicago Fed President Evans, citing that he has a hard time seeing strong price pressures. Last hour, he said the monetary policy may need to be loosened, if the economy softens or inflation runs too low.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Harada is on the wires now, via Reuters, with the key headlines found below. Most economic indicators apart f

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Harada is on the wires now, via Reuters, with the key headlines found below. Most economic indicators apart from inflation are improving. Without QQE, Japan jobless rate would not have fallen below 2%. QQE's biggest contribution was to boost Japanese economy's productivity.

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that we have a number of important events this week, with most prominently a potential Brexit vote tomorrow or Wedne

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that we have a number of important events this week, with most prominently a potential Brexit vote tomorrow or Wednesday, as well as several central bank speeches potentially addressing the recent dovishness from policymakers.Key Quotes“US trade negotiators are heading to Beijing for another round of talks later this week and Chinese vice PM Liu He is set to go to DC on 3 April.” “Today's highlight on the data front is the German Ifo for March. After last week's uptick in ZEW expectations investors are becoming on balance a bit less pessimistic on the Eurozone/Germany outlook. However, with the disappointing PMI manufacturing figures on Friday it is clear that the Germany is not out of the woods yet and challenges for the euro area recovery still lie ahead.”

FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1385 531m - GBP/USD: GBP amo

FX option expiries for Mar 25 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1385 531m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.3100 281m 1.3200 1.6bn 1.3250 1.3bn - USD/JPY: USD amounts  110.00 1.9bn 110.25 804m 110.75 581m 110.85 490m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8500 370m 0.8600 520m

CME Group’s preliminary figures for EUR futures markets noted investors scaled back their open interest positions by just 459 contracts on Friday, rec

CME Group’s preliminary figures for EUR futures markets noted investors scaled back their open interest positions by just 459 contracts on Friday, recording the third drop in a row. Volume, instead, rose for the third consecutive session, this time by nearly 44K contracts.EUR/USD appears consolidative near termThe strong decline in EUR/USD in past sessions was on the back of rising volume and shrinking open interest, leaving the scenario unclear and thus allowing for extra consolidation for the time being.

The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has started the week on a positive footing around the 96.60 region. US Dollar Index looks to yi

The index adds to gains above 96.60 on Monday.Yields of the US 10-year note bounces off 2.42%.US 3m-10y curve inversion in the limelight.The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has started the week on a positive footing around the 96.60 region.US Dollar Index looks to yields, risk trendsThe index is looking to extend the rebound from last week’s lows in the sub-96.00 area in the wake of the FOMC meeting, although gains seem so far capped by the 96.80/85 band. The greenback stays somewhat supported on Monday after the Mueller’s report concluded that President Trump did not conspire with Russia during the elections in 2016. In addition, Chicago Fed C.Evans stressed the US economy remains healthy and strong, noting that the current monetary policy stance is neither accommodative nor restrictive and that the Fed is ready to act in case inflation undershoots.What to look for around USDThe greenback left behind recent Fed-induced lows although it is expected to remain in centre stage while investors keep scrutinizing the performance of yields and the recent inversion of the 3m-10y curve. In light of the heightened patient stance from the Fed, traders will now scrutinize every piece of incoming data, particularly regarding the inflation performance. Fresh jitters from the US-China trade front could, however, put a floor to the buck’s decline in the near/medium term.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.07% at 96.62 facing the next hurdle at 96.81 (high Mar.22) seconded by 97.37 (high Feb.15) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7). On the downside, a breach of 95.74 (low Mar.20) would open the door for 95.16 (low Jan.31) and then 95.03 (2019 low Jan.10).

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is back on the wires now, via Reuters, making another speech about the economy and monetary policy at the Credit S

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is back on the wires now, via Reuters, making another speech about the economy and monetary policy at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, in Hong Kong. Evans noted that the Fed may have to ease if downside risks become a reality.

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, in the US, the week will provide important information about the housing market in February with the

According to analysts at National Bank Financial, in the US, the week will provide important information about the housing market in February with the release of housing starts and new homes sales.Key Quotes“We expect both indicators to advance on account of lower mortgage rates and rising mortgage applications. In other news, the most recent report on personal income (February) and personal spending (January) should show decent gains based on previously-released data on earnings and retail sales.” “The annual core PCE deflator, meanwhile, may come in unchanged at 1.9% in January, i.e. just one tick below the Fed’s target. Moreover, Q4 GDP growth could be revised down two ticks, reflecting weaker-than-anticipated personal consumption.” “Finally, we’ll keep an eye on the release of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March and the trade balance for January.”

Gold prices are on bid around $1316 during early Monday. The yellow metal recently benefited as global markets turn risk-off moves after sluggish data

Fears of US recession, sluggish data and Brexit uncertainty please safe-haven buyers.$1320 acts as immediate resistance with $1308 likely being nearby support.Gold prices are on bid around $1316 during early Monday. The yellow metal recently benefited as global markets turn risk-off moves after sluggish data from the US flashed a sign of recession for the world’s largest economy. Adding to buying bets was the CFTC report showing an increase in net bullish positions. Friday’s sluggish print of the US Markit purchasing manager index (PMI) dragged the 10-year treasury yields beneath 3-month bill for the first time since 2007. Pessimists considered it as another signal favoring that the US economy will again slide in recession. Weekly report of the non-commercial futures contracts of Gold traded by large speculators and hedge funds, published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed a net increase in buying for the first time in three weeks by 9,577 net contracts to 88,396 contracts. January month release of Japan’s all industry activity index and uncertainty surrounding Brexit also added strength into the risk aversion mood. Traders may now look for Fed policymakers, namely the Presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Philadelphia respectively, in order to confirm further bearish bias of the US central bank.Gold Technical AnalysisImmediate descending trend-line and early month high surrounding $1320 can act as immediate resistance ahead of fuelling prices towards $1332. Meanwhile, an upward sloping support-line joining lows since March 07 at $1308 may restrict nearby declines, a break of which can reprint $1302 and $1298 on the chart.

Among the G10 currencies, the USD/JPY pair enjoyed good two-way businesses in Asia this Monday, as the Yen caught a fresh bid-wave amid mounting US re

Among the G10 currencies, the USD/JPY pair enjoyed good two-way businesses in Asia this Monday, as the Yen caught a fresh bid-wave amid mounting US recession fears and the resulting risk-off slide in the Asian equities. However, the spot managed to attempt a corrective bounce from 6-week lows of 109.72 and reverted to the 110 handle, as the dovish comments by the Chicago Fed President Evans were offset by the recent speech by the BOJ Governor Kuroda. The Aussie, on the other hand, kept the bearish bias intact amid looming US-China trade worries while the Kiwi traded better bid near 0.6880 region, despite the sell-off in oil prices and reduced appetite for risk assets. Both the European currencies, the EUR and the GBP, remained under pressure amid a lack of clarity on the Brexit issue that is likely to keep the investors on the edge this week. Meanwhile, gold prices on Comex hit the highest levels since February, 28th amid part US yield curve inversion while the Japanese benchmark, the Nikkei 225 index tanked nearly 3.50%, leading the sell-off across the Asian markets.Main Topics in AsiaBrexit: Ministers tipped to replace Theresa May rally round UK PM May is expected to unveil plans to hold indicative votes ECB's Rehn: Brexit is biggest threat to the Eurozone in the short term The Robert S. Mueller report is a significant political victory for Trump Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls looking for a break of trendline resistance US/Sino trade talks to resume on March 28 and April 3 WTI: Global economic health concerns defy supply-side incentives, bears aim for $58.00 Fed’s Evans: Do not expect rate increase until H2 next year USD/TRY tests former resistance-turned-support after Erdogan's FX threat A section of US treasury yield curve inverts for first time since 2007 New Zealand PM Arden to meet with President Xi in China on March 31st BOJ’s Kuroda: Gradual yield rise will see BOJ shift to longer JGBs instead Fear of US recession, sluggish data weigh on Asian stocksKey Focus AheadToday’s EUR macro calendar is a thin showing as we head into a fresh week, but the Brexit-related developments and central bankers’ speeches will continue to drive the sentiment across the fx space. On the data front, the German IFO business survey will drop in at 0900 GMT and that’s the only relevant release, as the UK docket remains data-empty. The NA session also limited macro news, except for the second-tier releases in the Chicago Fed national activity index and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index, slated for release at 1230 GMT and 1430 GMT respectively. Later, towards NY closing, New Zealand’s trade report for the month of February will be published at 2145 GMT. Following are the speeches due on the cards from the key central bankers’ from across the globe: 0630 GMT – BOJ'S Harada 0915 GMT - ECB's Costa 0930 GMT - ECB's Coeure 1000 GMT - Fed's Harker 2030 GMT: RBA's Ellis EUR/USD trades below 50% Fib, recession fears and Brexit uncertainty may keep EUR under pressure EUR/USD closed well below 1.1312 (50% Fib R of 1.1176/1.1448) on Friday, confirming a bearish inside day reversal and was last seen trading at 1.13. The shared currency may fall further toward 1.1234 on recession fears and Brexit uncertainty.  GBP/USD clings to 1.3200 amid Brexit pessimism Lack of data/event highlights the importance of the Fed members’ speeches and second-tier US data, coupled with mounting Brexit anxiety, as near-term catalysts. GBP/USD Forecast: After Brextension, pound pushed and pulled by Parliament, three scenarios GBP/USD could jump all the way to 1.4000 even in the uncertainty of new elections. Like the previous scenario, it may not come into fruition this week, but approving "indicative votes" could indicate the path higher for the pound. What currencies to buy on a US recession after the yield curve inversion? Bond markets tend to give signals for the future. In the past, when the 3-month US Treasury yield became higher than the benchmark 10-year yield, it was an initial sign of a recession.  

According to the CFTC’s positioning data for the week ending 19 March 2019, leveraged funds remained net buyers of USD for a second week, ahead of the

According to the CFTC’s positioning data for the week ending 19 March 2019, leveraged funds remained net buyers of USD for a second week, ahead of the FOMC meeting, points out the research team at ANZ.Key Quotes“Dollar buying was broad-based except against GBP.” “Both leveraged funds and asset managers were net buyers of GBP even as the 29 March, Brexit deadline nears with a deal yet to be agreed on. Net long GBP positions by asset managers reached the 93rd percentile.” “Funds were net sellers of commodity currencies, but turned net buyers of EMFX.”

Analysts at TD Securities are seeing downside risks to the March German IFO, which is scheduled to release later on today and suggests that the NZ tra

Analysts at TD Securities are seeing downside risks to the March German IFO, which is scheduled to release later on today and suggests that the NZ trade balance will be next key release for the markets on early Tuesday morningKey Quotes“German Current Situation Index likely to fall to 102.0 (mkt: 102.9), while the Expectations Index likely to decline to 93 (mkt: 94.1).” “NZ: Feb trade balance is expected to remain in deficit, around -$NZ200m. While exports are likely to pick up a little to $NZ4.8b on stronger dairy prices, they are still expected to be outpaced by imports at $NZ5.0b as fuel prices also picked up in the month.”

Analysts at Rabobank lists down the key events and economic releases for the markets in the week ahead. Key Quotes “Data-wise, we have the German IF

Analysts at Rabobank lists down the key events and economic releases for the markets in the week ahead.Key Quotes“Data-wise, we have the German IFO survey, seen 98.5, which will be key given the ZEW survey picked up slightly, yet the latter is based on analysts’ views and the former on businesses.” “Tuesday it’s NZ trade, US housing starts, building permits, and consumer confidence.” “Wednesday it’s the RBNZ meeting, Canadian and US trade data and the US current account and industrial production.” “Thursday has Eurozone economic confidence and further revisions to Q4 US GDP, German CPI, and a Mexican rate decision.” “Friday sees Japanese Tokyo CPI and industrial production and retail trade, China’s current account, Aussie private credit, German unemployment, UK and Canadian GDP, and US personal income/spending, the Chicago PMI, and new home sales.” “Throughout the week we also hear from plenty of central bankers – who might now be sweating even more than usual for more than one reason at the thought of Moore being one more of them.”

GBP/USD has created a pennant pattern on the hourly chart - a bullish continuation setup, which usually accelerates the preceding bullish move.  A br

GBP/USD has created a pennant pattern on the hourly chart - a bullish continuation setup, which usually accelerates the preceding bullish move.  A break above 1.3210 (pennant resistance) would confirm pennant breakout and could be followed by a rally toward 1.33.  However, the bullish case put forward by the higher lows and higher highs pattern, as represented by the rising trendline, would weaken if the pennant is breached to the downside. Hourly chartTrend: Bullish above 1.3210  

USD/CAD daily chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 1.3428 Today Daily Change 2

In spite of breaking 12-week old descending trendline, the USD/CAD pair struggles around 1.3430 ahead of European open on Monday.The support-line, previous resistance, at 1.3420 grabs immediate market attention as a break of which can quickly drag the quote 1.3390 and then to the March 13 and 15 high near 1.3370.During the pair’s additional weakness past-1.3370, 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3280 could appear in focus.It should also be noted that pair’s declines under 1.3280 can avail supports around 200-day SMA level of 1.3190, followed by an upward sloping support-line since October 2018 at 1.3180.Meanwhile, current month high around 1.3470 seems favorite of buyers til they manage to hold the pair above 1.3430.Moreover, 1.3500 and 1.3530 can offer intermediate stops to the price rally beyond 1.3470 towards multiple resistances near 1.3660-70.USD/CAD daily chart 

Large traders lifted bullish net positions in WTI oil for the fifth straight week in seven days to March 19th, according to the data released by the C

Large traders lifted bullish net positions in WTI oil for the fifth straight week in seven days to March 19th, according to the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.  The non-commercial futures contracts rose by 52,481 net contracts to total a net position of 414,746 contracts. The uptick was largely a result of the rise in the gross long positions by 34,394 contracts. Meanwhile, the short positions fell by 18,087 contracts. The bullish bets, however, may drop this week, courtesy of the heightened US and European recession fears. Oil prices are already feeling the pull of gravity - WTI is currently trading at $58.50 per barrel, having hit a four-month high of $60.37 per barrel on March 21. 

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (0.5) in February

Asian stock markets took the red on Monday as signals for the US recession and soft data from Japan acquired bears attention. The US 3-month Treasury

Asian stock markets took the red on Monday as signals for the US recession and soft data from Japan acquired bears attention. The US 3-month Treasury bills were up 1.9 basis point than the 10-year yield on Friday. Traders feared for the inversion as it was earlier reported ahead of 2007 recession. Also weighing on the sentiment was January month all industry activity index from Japan. The activity gauge lagged behind +0.2% forecast to -0.2%. Reuters reported that the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.4% to a one-week trough in a broad sell-off in equities in the region. Japan’s Nikkei is down more than 3.00% with China’s CSI 300 loosing nearby 1.7% at the press time. Markets in India, as indicated by Sensex and NIFTY 50, are mostly 1.0% negative. On a positive note, the US-China trade deal is nearing final stages of negotiation as the US delegate will reach Beijing on March 28 for discussion whereas their Chinese counterparts led by Vice Premier Liu He will arrive Washington for another push. In spite of brighter chances favoring a trade deal between the US and China, sluggish economics from the US, China and the EU has been a concern of equity traders’ worry off-late.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the central bank's future monetary policy plans.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the central bank's future monetary policy plans.Main Points:During future policy exit, central bank earnings will decline. But yields should also rise, raising BOJ bond earnings. BOJ has been increasing savings to prepare for JGB fall. Gradual yield rise will see BOJ shift to longer JGBs instead.

USD/CNH's bounce from 6.6699 hit on March 20 has neutralized the immediate bearish setup up. A bullish reversal would be confirmed only above the 4-ho

USD/CNH's bounce from 6.6699 hit on March 20 has neutralized the immediate bearish setup up. A bullish reversal would be confirmed only above the 4-hour 200-candle moving average (MA), currently at 6.7306.  The average, however, is proving a tough nut to crack at press time, having served as a strong resistance at least four times since mid-December.  As of writing, the pair is trading at 6.7188, having faced rejection at the 4-hour 200-candle MA earlier today. 4-hour chartTrend: Bullish above 4H 200MA  

According to Tim Riddell, macro strategist at Westpac, the only Brexit certainty is continued uncertainty and with only a week before the Article 50 e

According to Tim Riddell, macro strategist at Westpac, the only Brexit certainty is continued uncertainty and with only a week before the Article 50 end date EU Leaders provided some breathing space for Mrs May’s nearly suffocated deal for a Withdrawal Agreement. Key Quotes“On Tuesday (or Wednesday) this week another “meaningful vote” is likely on a largely unchanged deal. Parliamentary support for her deal is already low and the lack of support could mean that the deal is not tabled and Parliament could go straight into seeking alternative plans or purposes for a longer extension.”What have EU-27 offered?If May’s deal is passed, the Brexit date is extended until 22nd May. If May’s deal fails, UK has until 12th April to find an alternative plan or purpose after which another 9 month extension is available to facilitate the new plan or purpose.”“So what now? PM May must gather her divided Cabinet, whose members are on the verge of resignation or even ministerial mutiny. It appears that if the deal fails, May might be forced to resign as PM. If the deal passes, however slim that now seems, UK will then leave EU on 22nd May (EU Parliamentary elections voting ends on 23rd May). If the deal fails, UK’s Parliament will have until 12th April to come up with an alternative plan. If accepted by EU-27, UK will then have another extension of some nine months. If no plan can be found or agreed upon, the UK will face either: A no-deal exit Revoking Article 50 and remaining in EU”  

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.4 below forecasts (0.5) in February

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in January: Actual (-0.2%)

Standard Chartered analysts point out that India is headed for national elections in April-May 2019, while the results will be announced on 23 May and

Standard Chartered analysts point out that India is headed for national elections in April-May 2019, while the results will be announced on 23 May and is going to be the key event for the markets.Key Quotes“Markets to watch closely if incumbent BJP is voted back into power and, if so, with what majority.” “Consensus is that BJP will be voted back in, but that a lack of absolute majority will result in a coalition government.” “Economic issues like lack of jobs, geopolitical developments, alliances between regional parties to dominate election outcome.” “Margin of error for opinion/exit polls has increased, creating uncertainty around the election outcome.”

Analysts at ANZ are expecting the RBNZ will likely acknowledge the softening of the GDP at the OCR Review this week but maintain an overall similar to

Analysts at ANZ are expecting the RBNZ will likely acknowledge the softening of the GDP at the OCR Review this week but maintain an overall similar tone to the February MPS, after last week’s GDP data showed growth continuing to moderate, slipping from 2.6% to 2.3% y/y.Key Quotes“Near-term GDP indicators point to ongoing softness and the RBNZ’s forecast for growth above 3% y/y this year is looking hard to achieve. That said, there is scope to wait and see how developments unfold.” “Moving forward, the RBNZ’s view on how potential output evolves – based on its assessment of capacity pressures – will be crucial for the inflation and policy outlook. Currently, the economy is coming up against constraints, but we expect that these will start to wane as headwinds build, making it difficult to sustain inflation at the 2% target over the medium term.” “Once that eventually becomes apparent, we expect the RBNZ will lower the OCR. We continue to pick November for the first move, though there are risks that could see this happen earlier or later than we expect.”

The British Pound (GBP) was trading around 1.3200 versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Monday. The GBP/USD pair has been volatile off-la

Brexit pessimism weigh on GBP/USD as Mueller report, US-China trade talk favor the greenback buyers.Fed policymakers’ comments would be checked to confirm recent bearish bias at the US central bank.The British Pound (GBP) was trading around 1.3200 versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Monday. The GBP/USD pair has been volatile off-late as developments surrounding Brexit confront mixed news out of the US. Lack of data/event highlights the importance of the Fed members’ speeches and second-tier US data, coupled with on-going Brexit progress, as near-term catalysts. Friday’s news that the EU is ready to extend Brexit deadline off from March 29 pleased the GBP buyers initially but doubts over the PM Theresa May’s future leadership confine the Cable’s gain. Though, Bloomberg reports claiming that Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond and other cabinet colleagues publicly supported PM May eased some of the pessimism. PM May will put forward her Brexit proposal third time in the UK parliament on Tuesday in order to gain support and avail deadline extension till May 22. If Mrs. May witness another humiliation from the members of the parliament (MPs) Brexit will take place on April 12. On the other hand, the US Dollar was also struggling to justify weaker data that led the first spread inversion since 2007 between the 3-month Treasury bills and the 10-year note yields.
Recently, news that the special counsel Robert Mueller failed to find any strong pieces of evidence that support the claims that Trump’s campaign team and Russia colluded during the 2016 Presidential election. Following that news of the US-China trade negotiations to take place on March 28 in China and on April 03 in the US pleased global trade watchers. Looking forward, in addition to the British PM May’s struggle to win over parliament support for her Brexit deals, comments from the Presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Philadelphia, namely Charles Evans and Patrick Harker, will be observed closely in light of recently dovish Fed meeting outcome. Also, the February month release of the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index can gain investors’ attention as well. The activity gauge dropped negative to -0.43 during January.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisWhile 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and an ascending support-line since January limit the pair’s declines around 1.3070, the 200-day SMA at 1.2980 also become important support to watch during the quote’s south-run. Alternatively, 1.3245 and 1.3300 can please buyers ahead of challenging them with 1.3380 and 1.3410 resistance levels.

With the relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour and hourly charts reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print, USD/JPY could rise above 1

With the relative strength index (RSI) on the 4-hour and hourly charts reporting oversold conditions with a below-30 print, USD/JPY could rise above 110.00 in the next few hours.  The corrective bounce, however, could be short-lived, as the daily chart is biased toward the bears - the pair closed below the trendline trending north from Jan. 4 and Jan. 31 lows, confirming a bull-to-bear trend change. Supporting that bearish case are the descending 5- and 10-day moving averages and the below-50 reading on the 14-day RSI.  The heightened recession fears and the resulting risk-off tone in the equities also indicate that the path of least resistance in USD/JPY is to the downside.  As of writing, the pair is trading 109.84, having hit a low of 109.70 earlier today. Daily chartTrend: Bearish  

EUR/USD closed well below 1.1312 (50% Fib R of 1.1176/1.1448) on Friday, confirming a bearish inside day reversal and was last seen trading at 1.13. T

EUR/USD has retraced 50 percent of the rally from 1.1176 to 1.1448 and could drop further on recession fears. German 10-year bond yield has fallen below zero for the first time since 2016. A section of the US yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007, bolstering recession fears. The EUR may also feel the heat of Brexit uncertainty. EUR/USD closed well below 1.1312 (50% Fib R of 1.1176/1.1448) on Friday, confirming a bearish inside day reversal and was last seen trading at 1.13. The shared currency may fall further toward 1.1234 on recession fears and Brexit uncertainty.  A widely followed section of the US treasury yield curve - the spread between the 10-year and three-month bond yields - turned negative on Friday, triggering recession fears. Further, the German 10-year bond yield turned negative for the first time since 2016, sending the US-DE 10-year yield spread higher by almost seven basis points.  As of writing, the futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.45 percent and major Asian indices are flashing red, meaning the risk-off mood is intact. The EUR, therefore, could extend Friday's decline, more so, due to Brexit uncertainty.  Britain's new departure date of May 22 will apply if parliament approves Prime Minister Theresa May's deal, which has already faced two major defeats. The plan will be put to vote for the third time this week. If it fails, Britain will have until April 12 to offer a new plan or decide to leave the EU without a treaty, according to Reuters. The reports are doing the rounds that the odds of a no-deal Brexit are rising.Technical Levels 

GBP/JPY daily chart In spite of breaking twelve-week-old ascending trend-line, the GBP/JPY pair is presently trading around 200-day SMA level of 14

GBP/JPY daily chartIn spite of breaking twelve-week-old ascending trend-line, the GBP/JPY pair is presently trading around 200-day SMA level of 144.70 during early Monday.The quote needs to slip under 144.70 simple moving average (SMA) support in order to aim for 100-day SMA level of 143.70 whereas 50% Fibonacci retracement of its April 2018 to January 2019 downturn can limit further declines at 143.10.Should prices keep trading southwards past-143.10, 141.80 and 141.10–141.00 can please sellers.Alternatively, an upside clearance beyond 145.40 support-turned-resistance may need to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci retracement to target 146.00 and 146.60.Additionally, 147.50 and the current month high near 148.90 may please buyers after 146.60 but ahead of challenging them with ten-month-old descending trend-line at 149.30. GBP/JPY 4-Hour chartImmediate ascending trend-line connecting lows since February 19, at 144.55, can validate the pair’s decline after 144.70.Also, 148.40 can offer an intermediate halt during the pair’s rise above 147.50. GBP/JPY hourly chart144.60-50 and 144.00 seem nearby supports to watch ahead of expecting further downside.

The Financial Times quoted three people briefed on the discussions on Sunday, as saying that China is not conceding to US demands to ease curbs on tec

The Financial Times quoted three people briefed on the discussions on Sunday, as saying that China is not conceding to US demands to ease curbs on technology companies, Reuters reports.  This comes ahead of the next rounds of talks between the US and China, starting on March 28th. “The FT report said Beijing had yet to offer “meaningful concessions” to US requests for China to stop discriminating against foreign cloud computing providers, to reduce limits on overseas data transfers and to relax a requirement for companies to store data locally.”

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that New Zealand (NZ) PM Jacinda Ardern is likely to travel to China to hold a meeting with the Chine

Reuters is out with the latest headlines, citing that New Zealand (NZ) PM Jacinda Ardern is likely to travel to China to hold a meeting with the Chinese President Xi on Sunday, March 31st.Her trip is for one day of meeting and markets are speculating that the recent tensions between China and NZ, in the wake of the NZ Government Security Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) warning against using Huawei's equipment for 5G, could be the underlying topic of discussion.

A widely-followed section of the US Treasury yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007, telling investors the Fed may cut rates to counte

A widely-followed section of the US Treasury yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2007, telling investors the Fed may cut rates to counter the slowdown in the economy.  The spread between the US 10-year and three-year treasury yield turned negative on Friday and is currently seen at -0.02, the lowest since 2007.  The inverted yield curve is widely considered an advance indicator of recession. That said, the most important section of the US yield curve - the spread between the 10-year and two-year yield - is yet to invert. As of writing, the spread between the two is 12 basis points. 

USD/INR closed above 69.04 on Friday, validating the bullish outside-day created last Tuesday. The pair also closed above the descending 10-day moving

USD/INR closed above 69.04 on Friday, validating the bullish outside-day created last Tuesday. The pair also closed above the descending 10-day moving average (10-day MA) aborting the immediate bearish view  Further, it has created a bullish hammer candle on the weekly, which is widely considered an advance warning of a potential trend reversal.  As a result, the spot could find acceptance above the immediate resistance of 69.2325 (January low) and rise toward the psychological hurdle of 70.00 over the next few days. Daily chartTrend: Bullish  

USD/TRY is currently trading at 5.6780, having printed session lows just below the former resistance-turned-support of the Jan. 3 high of 5.6371.  Tu

Turkish Lira is better bid in Asia with USD/TRY reporting a 1.29 percent drop on the day. Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan has warned the finance sector against buying foreign currencies. That is likely pushing Turkey's currency higher. USD/TRY is currently trading at 5.6780, having printed session lows just below the former resistance-turned-support of the Jan. 3 high of 5.6371.  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that those in the finance sector buying foreign currencies on the expectations that the lira will depreciate will pay "a very heavy price" and added further that the Finance Ministry is carrying out work on this. Erdogan's comments come two days after lira's 4 percent slide, which was the biggest since the currency crisis of August 2018. The slide was likely fueled by central bank's report stating that forex deposits and funds including precious metals held by Turkish locals hit a record high in the week to March 15.  Looking forward, the currency pair may revisit and possibly break above Friday's high of 5.8414 as indicated by the double bottom breakout on the daily chart, as seen below.   

The Bank of Korea (BOK), the South Korean central bank, Governor Lee was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, speaking before the parliament. Lee

The Bank of Korea (BOK), the South Korean central bank, Governor Lee was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, speaking before the parliament. Lee noted that a 10 trln Won extra budget will shore up economic growth in the country.

Further comments are out on the wires by the Chicago Fed President Evans, as he continues to speak about the US monetary policy.  Yield curve inversi

Further comments are out on the wires by the Chicago Fed President Evans, as he continues to speak about the US monetary policy.  Yield curve inversion ‘pretty narrow’. Fed is ‘mindful’ of financial market constraints. I want to see more inflation, do not expect rate increase until H2 next year.
NZD/USD trades near 0.6875 during early Monday.The pair recently bounced off the eight-week-old descending trend-line (previous resistance) signaling buyers’ hold over the pair.Should prices manage to sustain the latest uptick, late-February highs around 0.6900 could reappear on the chart.However, a downward sloping trendline joining highs marked since June 2018 could challenge buyers around 0.6920.In a case quote rises past-0.6920, recent high near 0.6940 and 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of latest moves, around 0.6980, can please bulls.On the downside break of 0.6860, 0.6825 and 0.6800 could lure bears whereas two-month-old ascending support-line at 0.6755, may question their strength afterward.During additional declines under 0.6755, 0.6720 and 0.6700 might come back as quotes.NZD/USD 4-Hour chart

In an interview with broadcaster TGRT Haber later on Sunday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan made some bold remarks on the exchange rate that sent th

In an interview with broadcaster TGRT Haber later on Sunday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan made some bold remarks on the exchange rate that sent the Turkish Lira rebounding versus its American counterpart following a 4% sell-off witnessed on Friday.Key Quotes (via Reuters):“Some people” had begun provoking Turkey and that they were attempting to make the lira decline against foreign currencies with their cooperators in Turkey. “I am calling on those who engage in such activities on the eve of elections, we know all of your identities. We know what all of you are doing. Know this, after the elections, we will present you with a heavy bill.”  Those in the finance sector who buy foreign currencies on the expectation that the lira will fall will pay “a very heavy price.”

EUR/USD fell 0.64 percent on Friday, validating the bearish inside day candle created on Thursday.  An inside day occurs when the high and low falls

EUR/USD fell 0.64 percent on Friday, validating the bearish inside day candle created on Thursday.  An inside day occurs when the high and low falls within the price range of the previous day and is widely considered a sign of indecision. A bearish follow-through, preferably a close below the low of the inside day, is considered a sign of bullish-to-bearish trend change.  On Friday, the spot closed well below the low of 1.1343 hit on Tuesday, confirming a bearish reversal. Hence, the path of least resistance is now to the downside and a deeper drop toward 1.1234 (Feb. 15 low) could be in the offing.  That said, a repeated failure to penetrate 1.1280 (61.8% Fib R of 1.1176/1.1448) would weaken the immediate bearish pressure. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1298.Daily chartTrend: Bearish  

More comments are crossing the wires from the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, as he continues to speak in Hong Kong on a panel and delivering a k

More comments are crossing the wires from the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, as he continues to speak in Hong Kong on a panel and delivering a keynote at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference. He’s not worried about the inflation pressure. US monetary policy neither accommodative nor restrictive at this point. It’s a good time to pause and be cautious.

Fed's Evans is speaking in Hong Kong on a panel and delivering a keynote at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference. Good time to pause. U.S

Fed's Evans is speaking in Hong Kong on a panel and delivering a keynote at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference. Good time to pause. U.S. economy is in a strong position. FED'S fund rate is close to neutral.

China Industry Minister Wei comments: China reiterates to fully open up manufacturing industry. China to create stable, predictable manufacturing

China Industry Minister Wei comments: China reiterates to fully open up manufacturing industry. China to create stable, predictable manufacturing environment.
 

WTI trades near $58.50 during early Asian sessions on Monday. In spite of witnessing consecutive declines in crude stocks and rig counts, doubts over

Sluggish data from major economies continue to weigh on welcome reports from supply-side.Friday’s low near $58.30, followed by $58.00 round-figure, could become bears’ immediate targets.WTI trades near $58.50 during early Asian sessions on Monday. In spite of witnessing consecutive declines in crude stocks and rig counts, doubts over the global economic health continue to weigh on energy prices. Developments surrounding a trade deal between the US and China can offer an immediate catalyst to prices. The US crude oil stocks change has been printing negative figures during the last two rounds and the weekly outcome of Baker Hughes rig count showed the US oil-rig counts declining for a fifth straight week. Adding to the supply-side deterioration is on-going OPEC+ supply cuts and the US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Despite the aforementioned drawbacks on the supply side favoring an uptick in prices, challenges to buyers have also grown due to doubts over global economic health. Sluggish economics from the global powerhouses like the US, the EU and China continue to raise odds against the energy price rally. Among recent positives could be Bloomberg report signaling the US-China trade developments. The report says that the US policymakers headed by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will negotiate the deal in Beijing with their Chinese counterparts on March 28 whereas the other-side led by Vice-Premier Liu He will visit Washington on April 03.WTI Technical AnalysisFXStreet Analyst Ross J Burland says bears target break of 50% Fibonacci retracement of October – December moves after prices were rejected at the rising wedge's resistance. WTI has been rejected at the rising wedges resistance while otherwise, bulls look to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows at 63.74, reviving prospects for the 70 handle. On the flip side, a break of the 50% Fibo support opens prospects for a break below trend line support and a subsequent drop to 54.50 will open a case for 50.50 as the 23.6% Fibo support structure.

The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading at 77.66, having hit a 7.5-week low of 77.54 earlier today.  The anti-risk Japanese yen has likely picked up a

AUD/JPY dropped to the lowest level since Feb. 8 a few minutes before press time, having created a bearish candle on Friday. The S&P 500 futures are down 0.5 percent at press time and could be pushing the anti-risk JPY higher.The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading at 77.66, having hit a 7.5-week low of 77.54 earlier today.  The anti-risk Japanese yen has likely picked up a bid, tracking the risk aversion in the financial markets. As of writing, the futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.5 percent and Japan's Nikkei index is reporting a 3 percent drop. Other major Asian indices like the S&P/ASX 200, Hang Seng, and the Shanghai Composite are also flashing red.  Looking forward, the pair may print three-month lows below 77.44 if the flight to safety gathers pace and the Chinese yuan extends losses. The USD/CNH pair is currently trading at 6.7255, having hit a ten-day high of 6.7307 soon before press time.  Technically speaking, AUD/JPY looks set for a deeper drop, having charted a bearish marubozu candle on Friday. The 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) are also trending south and the 14-day relative strength index reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print. Technical LevelsResistance: 77.78 (Friday's low), 77.98 (Asian session high), 78.39 (5-day MA) Support: 77.44 (Feb. 8 low), 77.0 (psychological level), 76.78 (November 2016) 
 

Speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Sunday, Bloomberg has reported that the PBOC "has already withdrawn from day-to-day intervention

Speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Sunday, Bloomberg has reported that the PBOC "has already withdrawn from day-to-day interventions and now more and more market participants are getting used to a flexible exchange rate" Additional quotes: China's financial markets openness to the rest of the world isn't high Therefore there is a lot of room for increased access PBOC will focus on providing more hedging tools in 2019 to help investors manage risks "We need to improve the financial risk prevention mechanism in line with financial opening-up." a flexible currency exchange rate is a "complementary" step in China's opening as it helps absorb risks PBOC "has already withdrawn from day-to-day interventions and now more and more market participants are getting used to a flexible exchange rate"

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7098 vs Friday's fix of 6.6944.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7098 vs Friday's fix of 6.6944.
Leverage build up across world getting to high levels. China is a particular strong example of this. Leverage is building up in China again after the deleveraging. Collateralized loan obligations (CLO) is reminiscent of the run up to the subprime loan crisis. Global central banks reverting back to accommodation. Policies likely to remain accommodative for longer. Renewed accommodation is good in the short-term, but could be negative in the longer term due to more risk. argued former Bank of Japan deputy governor, Nakaso.

The yen was the best performer on Friday and sent USD/JPY down from 110.80 to 109.74 for a six-week low which has now been exceeded. The pair had trie

USD/JPY is under pressure at the start of the week.USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.77, down from a high of 110.14 and printing a low of 109.70, so far. The yen was the best performer on Friday and sent USD/JPY down from 110.80 to 109.74 for a six-week low which has now been exceeded. The pair had tried to correct but sellers are stepping in as Tokyo gets going with a risk-off tone following last weeks bearish diversion in yields and poor data releases from both Germany and the US. As for yields, the US 10yr treasury yield fell from 2.53% to 2.42% - That was the lowest since Jan 2018. The 2yr yield fell from 2.40% to 2.30% - and the difference between 2yr and 10yr yields – 12bp – is the lowest since Dec. Meanwhile, there is growing speculation that the Fed will be forced to cut rates before the year is out, and the Fed funds futures are now pricing an increased chance of it by as much as 60%.Looking aheadIt is a quiet start tot he week on the calendar, although attention will turn to Charles Evan today in Hong Kong Credit speaking on a panel and delivering a keynote at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference. We will then have Fed's Harker speaking at the OMFIF City Lecture in London.USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that USD/JPY's bearish case is strong, according to the daily chart: "The pair fell roughly 150 pips below its 100 and 200 DMA, after spending pretty much two weeks struggling around them." "Technical indicators in the mentioned chart head firmly lower within negative levels and nearing oversold readings with no signs of changing course." "In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair shed over 100 pips after failing to surpass its 200 DMA, currently around 110.90, while the 100 DMA turned lower far above the longer one." "The Momentum indicator stalled at oversold levels, while the RSI indicator keeps heading south, currently at 23, both adding to the bearish case."

AUD/USD closed 0.7079 on Friday, validating the bearish view put forward by the long upper shadow attached the preceding day's doji candle.  The bear

AUD/USD closed at 0.7079 on Friday, validating the bearish view put forward by the long upper shadow attached the preceding day's doji candle.  The bearish reversal indicates the bounce from lows near 0.70 has likely made a temporary high at 0.7168 (Thu's high) and the immediate support at 0.7041 (Mar. 14 low) could soon come into play.  The immediate bearish case would weaken if the spot finds acceptance above 0.7090 (the low of Thursday's doji candle). Daily chartTrend: Bearish  

Successful break of 12-week old descending trend-line resistance enables the USD/CAD pair to visit 1.3430 level during early Monday. Buyers now aim fo

Weak Canadian data helped the USD/CAD pair to cross near-term important resistance.Current month high around 1.3470 gains immediate market attention.Successful break of 12-week old descending trend-line resistance enables the USD/CAD pair to visit 1.3430 level during early Monday. Buyers now aim for current month high near 1.3470 while developments surrounding the US-China trade deal and comments from the Fed policymakers could provide fresh impulse to traders. On Friday, USD/CAD provided a daily closing beyond a downward sloping trendline stretched since early January. The quote sustains the breakout so far during initial Asian sessions on Monday, signaling strength of the move. Soft Canadian retail sales and inflation numbers could be considered as a reason for the pair’s latest advances. Adding to the USD strength could be positive news from the US-China trade front. As per the latest report from Bloomberg, Chinese delegation led-by Vice-Premier Liu He will visit Washington on April 03. It should also be noted the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will negotiate trade in Beijing on March 28. Next up in the line will be comments from the Fed policymakers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Philadelphia, namely Charles Evans and Patrick Harker. While Evans is known to be a policy dove, Harker’s tendency to appear less in public makes their speeches important. At the economic front, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February should gain investor’s attention as the reading dropped negative to -0.43 during the previous release. Additionally, concerns of sharp economic slowdown weigh on crude prices, Canada’s largest export item, which in turn becomes an extra position for the USD/CAD buyers.USD/CAD Technical AnalysisWhile the break of immediate resistance-line enables the Loonie buyers to aim for 1.3470, 1.3500, 13530 and 1.3570 could challenge the bulls during further upside. In a case pair drops beneath 1.3420 resistance-turned-support, 1.3390 and 1.3370 might reappear on the chart ahead of highlighting 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.3280.

Reuters reported on the latest survey from the Confederation of British Industry and accounting firm PwC. Reuters summary: Optimism about the bus

Reuters reported on the latest survey from the Confederation of British Industry and accounting firm PwC.Reuters summary: Optimism about the business outlook among Britain's financial services firms has fallen at its fastest rate since the 2008 financial crisis.

The global central banks are reverting back to accommodation and will likely keep policies looser for longer, Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Former Deputy Gove

The global central banks are reverting back to accommodation and will likely keep policies looser for longer, Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Former Deputy Governor Nakaso reportedly said on Monday.  While renewed accommodation is good in the short-term, a prolonged monetary could prove a net negative, Nakaso added.  BOJ's board is already divided between those who are becoming increasingly wary of the rising cost of prolonged easing and those who feel more easing will help the central bank achieve its inflation target sooner-than-expected. 

Gold speculators increased their bullish net positions in the week ended March 19, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Fr

Gold's net bullish positions increased for the first time in three weeks.Positions remain in bullish territory for the eighteenth straight week.Gold speculators increased their bullish net positions in the week ended March 19, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed.  The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, rose by 9,577 net contracts to 88,396 contracts with the gross long and short positions falling by 925 contracts and 10,502 contracts. Notably, net positions remained in bullish territory for the eighteenth straight week, having dropped in the previous three weeks. Investors squared off shorts likely in anticipation of the dovish Fed. The US central bank kept rates unchanged last Wednesday and slashed 2019 interest rate hike forecast to zero. The rate hike pause, however, was priced in by markets in the last four months. Hence, the post-Fed weakness in the US dollar (and strength in gold) was short-lived.  As of writing, gold is trading at $1,311, having clocked a high of $1,320 on Thursday. 

 US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin head off to Beijing to meet Vice-Premier Liu He while Chinese officia

 US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin head off to Beijing to meet Vice-Premier Liu He while Chinese officials, led by Liu will return to the US on 3 April for more talks as both teams aim to bring talks to a trade agreement by the end of April. 

GBP/JPY is taking the bids around 145.50 during early Monday. Traders trimmed their support off safe-havens after Robert Mueller’s report of the US Pr

Brexit pessimism remains in focus amid Mueller’s report and yield curve development.50-day SMA continues to become immediate strong support with 145.90 likely nearby resistance.GBP/JPY is taking the bids around 145.50 during early Monday. Traders trimmed their support off safe-havens after Robert Mueller’s report of the US President Donald Trump’s collusion with Russia reported no proofs of any of the US or Trump administration officers being guilty. Though, doubts over the UK PM Theresa May’s leadership and inverted yield curve capped the pair’s gains. The pair took a U-turn from 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on Thursday and managed to remain above it since then. The US special counsel Robert Mueller finally released a long-awaited report on the investigation concerning the US President Donald Trump and/or his team’s conspiracy with Russia to win during Presidential election in 2016. The report pleased Trump administration as it didn’t find any of the US person or trump campaign official knowingly conspired with Russia. The same helped trigger an upbeat week-start for the US Dollar. However, the inverted spread between the 3 month and 10-year yields gained investor attention as this happened once ahead of the great financial crisis. Adding to pessimism were doubts over the UK PM Theresa May’s future leadership as the BBC reported that the lawmakers at home are preparing a coup for May over her criticism that the members of parliament (MPs) were the reason for Brexit delay. Japan’s all industry activity index (MoM) for January becomes an immediate catalyst to watch whereas Brexit developments could keep entertaining investors amid no major data scheduled from the UK. The January month Japanese gauge is likely to reverse prior -0.4% decline with +0.2% expansion.GBP/JPY Technical Analysis50-day SMA level of 144.40 acts as nearby important support for the pair, a break of which can drag the quote to 143.70 level comprising 100-day SMA. On the upside, 145.90 and 146.15 could please short-term buyers ahead of challenging them with 147.00 and 147.50 resistances.

The WSJ has reported that the Pentagon sent two vessels through the Taiwan Strait, a show of U.S. support for Taiwan likely to fuel concerns in Beijin

The WSJ has reported that the Pentagon sent two vessels through the Taiwan Strait, a show of U.S. support for Taiwan likely to fuel concerns in Beijing that Washington is aligning increasingly with Taipei. The naval destroyer Curtis Wilbur and the Coast Guard cutter Bertholf conducted what Navy officials described as a routine transit through the Strait beginning Sunday local time.
EUR/JPY stalled through the 50% Fibo of the late Sep highs and early Jan lows and smashed through the 125.68  uptrend support and the 55-day ma at 125.28 - The Feb low just above 124 the figure was also breached.Bears can target another test of the 124 handle opening prospects for 123.40 mid-January low ahead of 122.70 and 121.50.On the flip side, the 61.8% Fibo guards territory towards the 200-day ma just below the 128 handle.

ECB's member Olli Rehn has warned in a newspaper interview, Die Welt, that will be published Monday that markets appear to be too relaxed on Brexit an

ECB's member Olli Rehn has warned in a newspaper interview, Die Welt, that will be published Monday that markets appear to be too relaxed on Brexit and are underestimating the risk it poses. Growth in the eurozone has slowed down significantly and we must be worried. .   

EUR/GBP daily chart EUR/GBP is little changed near 0.8550 at the start of Asian trading on Monday. Following its failure to successfully cross 50-

EUR/GBP daily chartEUR/GBP is little changed near 0.8550 at the start of Asian trading on Monday.Following its failure to successfully cross 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the pair is likely declining towards mid-month low around 0.8500.Though, the current month low surrounding 0.8470 and support-line of two-month-old descending trend-channel, at 0.8430 now, can entertain sellers afterward.During additional selling pressure beneath 0.8430, 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of January 11 to March 21 moves, at 0.8360, could become bear’s favorite.Meanwhile, 0.8640 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.8680 may restrict the quote’s near-term upside ahead of diverting market attention to 0.8715/20 resistance-confluence comprising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of January – March downturn and upper-line of the said channel.If at all buyers manage to conquer 0.8720, 50% Fibonacci at 0.8790 and 200-day SMA level of 0.8840 could flash on their list. EUR/GBP 4-Hour chart0.8670 is likely an intermediate halt between 0.8640 and 0.8680.On the downside, 0.8530 seem adjacent support to watch. EUR/GBP hourly chartLatest top at 0.8570 could become the closest resistance with 0.8510 being expected additional support.

UK PM May is expected to unveil plans to hold indicative votes, Steven Swinford - deputy political editor at The Telegraph tweeted:

UK PM May is expected to unveil plans to hold indicative votes, Steven Swinford - deputy political editor at The Telegraph tweeted:
WTi has been rejected at the rising wedges resistance while otherwise, bulls look to the 61.8% Fibo of the Oct 2018 sell-off to late Dec lows at 63.74, reviving prospects for the 70 handle. On the flip side, a break of the 50% Fibo support opens prospects for a break below trend line support and a subsequent drop to 54.50 will open a case for 50.50 as the 23.6% Fibo support structure.

AUD/JPY 4-Hour chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 77.87 Today Daily Change 3

AUD/JPY trades near 77.80 during early Monday.The quote presently struggles with the seven-week-old ascending supportline ranging from February 08 and requires a dip beneath recent low of 77.70 in order to validate the downside targeting January 10 bottom near 77.10.However, February month low around 77.50 can offer intermediate halt whereas 77.00 mark could please sellers past-77.10.Additionally, 76.00 and 75.30 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart if sellers keep dominating trade sentiment under 77.10.It should also be noted that the 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory and signals pullback.Alternatively, 78.40 can limit immediate upside ahead of highlighting 200-bar simple moving average (SMA) at 78.85.During the pair’s additional rise past-78.85, 79.00 and a downward sloping trendline stretched since February 21, at 79.30, become important to watch.Moreover, the pair’s sustained break of 79.30 enables it to target 79.60 and 80.00 during further upside.AUD/JPY 4-Hour chart 

  Bulls slipped up at the gain line with price dropping back from trendline resistance. On the way down, 1302 is key ahead of 1298, 1290 while 1

 Bulls slipped up at the gain line with price dropping back from trendline resistance.On the way down, 1302 is key ahead of 1298, 1290 while 1280 is a keen target. Below there, 1275 remains the line in the sand to the downside, and a break below it will put the attention back to the towards to 1250, a key confluence area made up of Fibos and prior support and resistance. On the next leg up, however, 1320 ahead of 1332 guards the 2019 highs as being the 19th Feb high of 1345.19.

The GBP/USD pair is mild bid around 1.3210 during early Asian sessions on Monday. While the EU’s preparedness for an unconditional Brexit extension ti

Optimism surrounding Brexit delay confronts the uncertainty over PM May’s post.1.3070 continues to become important downside support with 1.3245 acting as immediate resistance.The GBP/USD pair is mild bid around 1.3210 during early Asian sessions on Monday. While the EU’s preparedness for an unconditional Brexit extension till April 12 pleased some of the British Pound (GBP) buyers during later last-week, expected coup against the UK PM Theresa May is something that pleases the bears. There are no major details/events scheduled for publishing from the Britain whereas speeches from the Fed policymakers and some second-tier details could offer intermediate trade direction. Though, developments surrounding Brexit could keep being in limelight. The EU leaders agreed for Brexit deadline extension from March 29. They offered unconditional delay till April 12 by then the PM May needs to get the UK parliament approval for the Brexit proposal in order to avail another tranche of extension till May 22. Back at home, PM May was criticized for blaming members of the parliament (MPs) for Brexit delay. As per the latest news from the BBC, PM May is under growing pressure to quit her position. However, both the likely caretaker PM say they fully back May and cut the strength of a coup. While developments surrounding how PM May could please MPs to support her Brexit deal when they are already plotting for her exit could entertain traders, comments from the Fed policymakers and some data from the US would also be important to watch. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans and that of Federal Reserve Bank at Philadelphia, Patrick T Harker,  are up for their public appearances during Monday morning. Also, February month Chicago Fed national activity index is scheduled for publish at 12:30 GMT. The sentiment gauge earlier dropped to -0.43.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisDescending trend-line joining recent highs around 1.3245 acts as immediate upside barrier for the GBP/USD pair, a break of which can propel the quote towards 1.3300 resistance. On the downside, 1.3180 and 1.3110 can please sellers ahead of challenging them with a twelve week old upward sloping support-line at 1.3070.

The New York Times reports that the investigation led by Robert S. Mueller III found that neither President Trump nor any of his aides conspired or co

The New York Times reports that the investigation led by Robert S. Mueller III found that neither President Trump nor any of his aides conspired or coordinated with the Russian government’s 2016 election interference, according to a summary of the special counsel’s key findings made public on Sunday by Attorney General William P. Barr.The findings delivered a significant political victory for the president, one he almost immediately began to trumpet.More here
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