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Forex News Timeline

Friday, April 3, 2020

Gold seems to have lost its safe-haven allure in the past weeks. Logically, this makes little sense and is highly counter-intuitive, according to econ

Gold seems to have lost its safe-haven allure in the past weeks. Logically, this makes little sense and is highly counter-intuitive, according to economists at OCBC Bank.  Key quotes “As Covid-19 started to invoke fears of a dollar liquidity crunch, gold became a ripe candidate for a selloff as was a highly liquid asset and one of the few markets still posting year-to-date gains.” “Gold properties – rare, inert and high density – still makes it one of the top choices as an alternative asset to stocks and bonds.” “The current liquidity crunch highlights inherent failings within the economic system and does not suggest gold has lost its status as a safe-haven.”  

CME Group’s advanced data for Copper futures markets noted traders added around 1.5K contracts on Thursday, clinching the fourth consecutive daily bui

CME Group’s advanced data for Copper futures markets noted traders added around 1.5K contracts on Thursday, clinching the fourth consecutive daily build. Volume, too, went up by nearly 4.1K contracts, reversing the previous drop. Copper targets $2.29 Prices of the pound of the base metal remain side-lined below the $2.25 level for the time being. Thursday’s gains were amidst rising open interest and volume, allowing for the continuation of the consolidation and a potential break higher to the 21-day SMA, today at $2.2890.

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) came out with a statement on Friday, noting “strategy against the coronavirus outbreak is working.” Further comm

Germany's Robert Koch Institute (RKI) came out with a statement on Friday, noting “strategy against the coronavirus outbreak is working.”  Further comments Actual virus death rate probably exceeds what is reported. Doesn't expect enough ICU capacity for virus cases. Measures against coronavirus must be maintained.   More to come ...

The GBP/USD pair edged lower through the early European session and refreshed daily lows, around the 1.2325 region post-UK macro data. The pair extend

GBP/USD extended the previous day’s rejection slide from the 1.2475 supply zone.Worsening coronavirus crisis benefitted the USD and kept exerting some pressure.The UK Services PMI for March was revised lower and did little to lend any support.The GBP/USD pair edged lower through the early European session and refreshed daily lows, around the 1.2325 region post-UK macro data. The pair extended the previous session's rejection slide from the 1.2475 supply zone and witnessed some follow-through selling on the last trading day of the week amid the prevalent strong bullish sentiment around the US dollar. Despite an unprecedented rise in the US initial weekly jobless claims, the greenback continued benefitting from its status as the global reserve currency amid worries over the worsening economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Apart from a broad-based USD strength, the fact that Fitch Ratings estimated that the UK's GDP could fall by close to 4% in 2020 further took its toll on the British pound and contributed to the pair's ongoing slide to three-day lows. The sterling was further pressured by a downward revision of the UK Services PMI, which indicated a sharper-than-anticipated contraction in the services sector activity and came in at 34.5 in March as against the preliminary reading of 35.7. It will now be interesting to see if the pair continues to show some resilience at lower levels or confirms a near bearish break through the recent trading range as the focus now shifts to the release of the closely watched US monthly jobs report. Technical levels to watch  

Despite the peak in new cases in the Eurozone, analysts at Danske Bank do not think the economic implications of the virus have reached their nadir ye

Despite the peak in new cases in the Eurozone, analysts at Danske Bank do not think the economic implications of the virus have reached their nadir yet. Key quotes “We expect activity to continue to fall in the coming months, followed by a sharp rebound in H2 20 once the lockdown measurements come to an end and low energy prices boost private consumption. We now look for annual GDP growth of -3.2% in 2020.” “We think the PEPP will put a hand under credit spreads and risk–sentiment as the ECB essentially signalled that ‘there are no limits to our commitment to the euro’.” “We expect further declines in inflation rates in the coming months, with core inflation now averaging only 0.7% in 2020.”  

Citing a source familiar with the talks, Reuters reported that OPEC+ are likely to debate possible crude oil cuts of 10mln barrels per day (bps) when

Citing a source familiar with the talks, Reuters reported that OPEC+ are likely to debate possible crude oil cuts of 10mln barrels per day (bps) when they meet next Monday. Additional headlines ADNOC raised its crude oil production to 4.03mln bpd on April 1. No firm quotas are set just yet. There are some new countries wishing to join OPEC+.

Bears are in the lead after GBP/USD slipped below the uptrend support line that accompanied it since late last week, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam rep

Bears are in the lead after GBP/USD slipped below the uptrend support line that accompanied it since late last week, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Several days of range-trading have stabilized both the Relative Strength Index and momentum on the four-hour chart. The cable is trading above the 50 and 100 Simple Moving Averages but below the 200 SMA.” “Support awaits at 1.2325, which was was a cushion earlier this week. It is followed by 1.2250, a swing low from earlier this week.” “Resistance awaits at 1.2450, which held cable temporarily down during this week. It is followed by the stubborn resistance line of 1.2490.”  

Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) today published March FX reserve and central bank balance sheet data, economists at Danske Bank recap. EUR/DKK is trading a

Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) today published March FX reserve and central bank balance sheet data, economists at Danske Bank recap. EUR/DKK is trading at 7.4682. Key quotes “Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) sold DKK65bn in the FX market to cap EUR/DKK upside in March before hiking policy rates by 15bp.”  “Tightening of monetary policy and stabilisation of global financial markets has eased upward pressure on EUR/DKK and removed the need for further action.” “We look for EUR/DKK to continue to trade above the 7.46038 central rate in the short term and for DN to keep policy rates unchanged at the current -0.35% for the repo rate and -0.60% for the CD rate.”  

The UK services sector activity contracted more-than-expected in the month of March, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Friday. The seasonal

UK Final Services PMI revised downwards to 34.5 in March.GBP/USD refreshes lows and nears 1.2300. King dollar rules amid looming coronavirus crisis-led risk off. The UK services sector activity contracted more-than-expected in the month of March, the final report from IHS Markit showed this Friday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised lower to 34.5 in March versus 34.8 expected and a 35.7 – March’s first reading.   developing story ...

United Kingdom Markit Services PMI came in at 34.5 below forecasts (34.8) in March

Russia can manage better than other countries the corona crisis as maintains the inflation low, per Danske Bank. EUR/RUB is trading at 83.4285. Key qu

Russia can manage better than other countries the corona crisis as maintains the inflation low, per Danske Bank. EUR/RUB is trading at 83.4285. Key quotes “In Russia, the economy can weather the storm, as inflation is low, and even after the 20-30% move in the rouble we are unlikely to see double-digit CPI.”  “We also see EUR/RUB overshooting versus fundamentals, but we have lifted our 12M EUR/RUB forecast to 75.00 (from 60). Notably, it is likely to take a while before we see an end to the ongoing oil-price war.”  

The USD/CHF pair edged higher through the early European session and climbed to over one-week tops, around the 0.9775 region in the last hour. The pai

USD/CHF gains traction for the fifth consecutive session on Friday.Sustained USD buying was seen as a key factor driving the pair higher.Friday’s key focus will remain on the closely watched US jobs report.The USD/CHF pair edged higher through the early European session and climbed to over one-week tops, around the 0.9775 region in the last hour. The pair prolonged this week's goodish positive move from the key 0.9500 psychological mark and continued gaining traction for the fifth consecutive session on Friday, all against the backdrop of sustained buying around the US dollar. The greenback remained well supported by its status as the global reserve currency amid concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and seemed rather unaffected by a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields. Meanwhile, a weaker tone around the equity markets, which tends to undermine the Swiss franc's perceived safe-haven status, also did little to dampen the bullish mood or hinder the ongoing positive momentum to the highest level since March 26. It will now be interesting to see if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position or opt to take some profits off the table as the focus now shifts to Friday's important release of the closely watched US monthly jobs report for March. Given Thursday's muted market reaction to an unprecedented surge in the US initial weekly jobless claims, the headline NFP print is unlikely to be a major game-changer and might do little to influence the pair's near-term trajectory. Hence, developments surrounding the coronavirus saga might continue to influence the USD price dynamics, which should act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

The SGD NEER stands at around +0.40% above the perceived parity level (1.4374). Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank, analyzes the USD/SGD outloo

The SGD NEER stands at around +0.40% above the perceived parity level (1.4374). Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank, analyzes the USD/SGD outlook. Key quotes “The +0.40% to +0.60% above parity level may be a cap for the SGD NEER for now, limiting the downside of the USD/SGD now that broad USD prospects have likely turned.” “Expect the USD/SGD pair to keep stretching for the 1.4400 target into the end of the week, while the 1.4290/00 level supports.”  

EUR/USD has failed at the 61.8% retracement at 1.1167. Initial support at 1.0879 has been eroded, as Karen Jones from Commerzbank notes. Key quotes “A

EUR/USD has failed at the 61.8% retracement at 1.1167. Initial support at 1.0879 has been eroded, as Karen Jones from Commerzbank notes. Key quotes “Attention is on 1.0778, the mid February low. Failure here should focus interest back on the downside.”  “Longer term the market has eroded the 35 year uptrend at 1.0782/74 on a weekly basis. Failure here is considered to be a major break down and targets 1.0340, the 2017 low.”  

Markit's final Services sector Purchasing Managers' Indexes have shown worse outcomes than the initial reads. For the whole euro area, the figure stan

Markit's final Services sector Purchasing Managers' Indexes have shown worse outcomes than the initial reads. For the whole euro area, the figure stands at 26.4 against 28.4 initially reported. Germany's statistic is at 31.7, and France at 27.4, both below the original publications. The first and final read for Italy, the country most hit by COVID-19, hit 17.4 points. Spain's Services PMI is at 23 points. It seems that the figures are in line with the carnage caused by coronavirus.  Any score above 50 reflects the expansion and below that level represents contraction. EUR/USD has extended its falls in response, trading below 1.08. US Non-Farm Payrolls are awaited.   

Norway Registered Unemployment n.s.a came in at 10.7%, below expectations (13.5%) in March

European Monetary Union Markit PMI Composite registered at 29.7, below expectations (31.4) in March

European Monetary Union Markit Services PMI below forecasts (28.4) in March: Actual (26.4)

Italy Public Deficit/GDP registered at -2.4%, below expectations (1.7%) in 4Q

Germany Markit Services PMI came in at 31.7, below expectations (34.3) in March

Germany Markit PMI Composite registered at 35, below expectations (36.8) in March

The USD buying interest picked up pace in the last hour and lifted the USD/JPY pair to three-day tops, around the 108.25 region, closer to 200-day SMA

USD/JPY gains traction for the second straight session amid some follow-through USD strength.The risk-off mood, a fresh leg down in the US bond yields might keep a lid on any runaway rally.Investors are likely to wait for the release of the US jobs report for a fresh directional impetus.The USD buying interest picked up pace in the last hour and lifted the USD/JPY pair to three-day tops, around the 108.25 region, closer to 200-day SMA. The pair added to the previous session's modest recovery gains from weekly lows and gained some follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Friday amid the prevailing strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US dollar. Despite an unprecedented rise in the US initial weekly jobless claims, the greenback continued benefitting from its status as the global reserve currency in the wake of concerns over the worsening economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, a weaker tone around the equity markets extended some support to the Japanese yen's safe-haven demand. This coupled with a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields should keep a lid on any further gains, at least for now. Moreover, investors are likely to refrain from placing any aggressive bullish bets, rather prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's important release of the closely watched US monthly jobs report – popularly known as NFP. Technical levels to watch  

France Markit PMI Composite came in at 28.9 below forecasts (30.2) in March

France Markit Services PMI registered at 27.4, below expectations (29) in March

Italy Markit Services PMI below forecasts (22) in March: Actual (17.4)

The dark cloud over the global economy continues to attract investors into the precious metals sector, economists at ANZ Research apprise. Key quotes

The dark cloud over the global economy continues to attract investors into the precious metals sector, economists at ANZ Research apprise. Key quotes “Gold prices rallied back above USD1,600/oz amid strong flows in gold-backed ETF funds.”  “Inflows have risen over eight consecutive days, helped by tightness in the coin and gold bar sector. This has pushed the premium on such items up as high as USD200/oz.”  

USD/CNH is seen keeping the ongoing consolidative theme for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highli

USD/CNH is seen keeping the ongoing consolidative theme for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that USD ‘is expected to extend its advance but last month’s peak at 7.1652 is likely out of reach’. However, USD dropped quickly after touching a high of 7.1425. The ‘erratic’ price action over the past few days has resulted in a mixed outlook. From here, USD could continue to trade in a choppy manner between 7.0650 and 7.1250.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to the update from Monday (30 Mar). As highlighted, the chance for USD to break above 7.1700 has diminished. However, only a breach of 7.0450 (‘strong support’ level previously at 7.0350) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. Looking ahead, a break of 7.0450 would suggest USD could spend trade in a broad range for a period.”

During March the Indian rupee plunged to a new record low against the US dollar from 72.170 to 75.590. Analysts at MUFG Bank believe the Asian currenc

During March the Indian rupee plunged to a new record low against the US dollar from 72.170 to 75.590. Analysts at MUFG Bank believe the Asian currency will stay pressure in coming weeks.  Key quotes “The rupee is likely to stay pressured through Q2 from accelerating capital outflows amid an escalation in the outbreak in India and other countries outside China.” “The RBI’s ‘whatever it takes’ approach during this crisis would ensure further easing down the line, including unconventional tools as stated by RBI Governor Das.”  

Short EUR/USD may be the best way to express the supported USD, in the opinion of Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank. Key quotes “We expect any

Short EUR/USD may be the best way to express the supported USD, in the opinion of Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank. Key quotes “We expect any bounce towards 1.0900 to be rejected for further downside beyond 1.0800.”  “Note however, that short term implied valuations have been relatively resilient despite the downswing in spot.”  

In light of flash figures for Gold futures markets from CME Group, both open interest and volume increased by just 245 contracts and nearly 4.2K contr

In light of flash figures for Gold futures markets from CME Group, both open interest and volume increased by just 245 contracts and nearly 4.2K contracts, respectively, on Thursday. Gold could re-visit $1,650/oz Thursday’s uptick in the price of the ounce troy of gold was accompanied by increasing open interest and volume, which carry the potential to extend the move to the recent tops in the $1,650 zone.

The base metals sector was mixed as a crude-oil induced rally in copper prices was offset by losses in other metals, strategists at ANZ Bank apprise.

The base metals sector was mixed as a crude-oil induced rally in copper prices was offset by losses in other metals, strategists at ANZ Bank apprise. Key quotes “Copper, the bellwether of the global economy, found support as macro traders rotated back into risky asset classes on the hope that the worst is behind us.” “Economic data remained weak, with US jobless claims surging for a second straight week. The aluminium market subsequently suffered, with prices falling for a fourth straight day.” “Production cuts in this market also look unlikely in the near-term, with energy prices, which make up 40% of their costs, down significantly.”  

The yearly forecasts for the British pound are revised downward from a month ago due to the coronavirus pandemic, as revealed by the latest Reuters po

The yearly forecasts for the British pound are revised downward from a month ago due to the coronavirus pandemic, as revealed by the latest Reuters poll. Key findings “Cable will be at $1.22 in a month, but then strengthen to $1.25 in six months and by 4% to about $1.29 in a year, according to the median estimate of over 50 foreign exchange specialists polled March 27-April 2. The 12-month forecast range was wide - highlighting the uncertainty - from as low as $1.13 to a high of $1.41. Against the euro, sterling will fare worse than was expected last month. On Thursday, one euro would get you about 88 pence and the poll suggested it would be worth 90p in one and six months, and then 88p again in a year.”

The US Dollar continues to show signs of strength as the USD/JPY pair has reached 108.00, Karen Jones from Commerzbank informs. Key quotes “We note a

The US Dollar continues to show signs of strength as the USD/JPY pair has reached 108.00, Karen Jones from Commerzbank informs. Key quotes “We note a 13 count on the 240 minute chart and the Elliott wave count on the daily chart is implying that 106.92 was the end of the move.” “We favour recovery and look for a retest of the 112.05/23 February high and 2017-2020 down channel, which we suspect will again hold.”  “A slide back below 106.27, the 50% retracement, is required to alleviate immediate upside pressure for focus to revert back to 104.46, the August low.”  

The AUD/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its Asian session uptick and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the

AUD/USD failed to capitalize on its early attempted recovery from weekly lows.The coronavirus crisis continued to underpin the USD and capped the upside.Weaker sentiment around the equity markets further weighed on the aussie.The AUD/USD pair struggled to capitalize on its Asian session uptick and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.6045 region. Having found some support near the key 0.60 psychological mark on Thursday, the pair edged higher on the last trading day of the week and was being supported by an upward revision of Australia's monthly retail sales figures for February. This coupled with better-than-expected China's Services PMI print provided a modest lift to the China-proxy Australian dollar and remained support. However, a combination of negative factors kept a lid on any strong follow-through positive move. The US dollar continued benefitting from its status as the global reserve currency amid concerns over the economic fallout from the coronavirus, which were further fueled by an unprecedented rise in the US initial weekly jobless claims. The cautious mood was reinforced by a weaker tone around equity markets, which further held investors from placing any aggressive bullish bets around perceived riskier currencies, including the aussie, and capped any meaningful upside for the major. Investors also seemed reluctant, rather preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of Friday's closely watched US monthly jobs report (NFP). This will be followed by the release of US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which might provide some meaningful impetus. Technical levels to watch  

In the near-term, the AUD/USD pair is still effectively within recently established ranges. The key level is 0.6000, according to Terence Wu, an FX st

In the near-term, the AUD/USD pair is still effectively within recently established ranges. The key level is 0.6000, according to Terence Wu, an FX strategist at OCBC Bank. Key quotes “The move to 0.6000 was rejected, as the pair settled near 0.6050.” “Note that short term implied valuations remain elevated as the pair edges lower.” “Bounces are reducing in altitude and this leaves the downside momentum still intact. Continue to expect the 0.6000 level to be breached in the coming sessions.”  

Spain Markit Services PMI below forecasts (25.5) in March: Actual (23)

Crude oil prices soared higher after reports major producers would cut production. Volatility in the oil market is likely to remain high as the market

Crude oil prices soared higher after reports major producers would cut production. Volatility in the oil market is likely to remain high as the market contemplates possible production cuts, per ANZ Bank. Key quotes “President Trump tweeted that he has spoken with Russia and Saudi Arabia and that a 1-15mb/d production cut had been agreed to.”  “Saudi Arabia did hold out an oil branch, calling for an urgent meeting of the OPEC+ alliance to reach a fair deal that would restore balance to the oil markets. However, we believe any agreement on production cuts will have minimal impact on the oil market.” “The closing of borders and lockdowns has had a precipitous impact on oil demand. Overall we calculate world crude oil demand has fallen by about 20mb/d.”  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY could have charted an interim bottom around the 107.00 region. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view f

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY could have charted an interim bottom around the 107.00 region. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view from yesterday was that the recovery in USD ‘has room to extend to 108.10’. USD subsequently rose to 108.09 before ending the day on a firm note at 107.90 (+0.69%). Upward momentum has picked up and from here, USD could extend its gain but the strong resistance at 108.75 could be out of reach for today (minor resistance is at 108.40). Support is at 107.60 followed by 107.30. The 107.00 low from yesterday is acting as a solid support now.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Tuesday (01 Apr, spot at 107.45) that while USD ‘is still weak’, the major support at ‘105.90 may be out of reach this time round’. While USD has since rebounded, only a break of 108.75 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 109.00) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased. From here, unless USD were to move and stay below 107.30 within these 1 to 2 days, a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ level would not be surprising. In other words, the risk of a short-term bottom has increased.”

Open interest in JPY futures markets increased for the third consecutive session on Thursday, now by more than 1K contracts according to preliminary d

Open interest in JPY futures markets increased for the third consecutive session on Thursday, now by more than 1K contracts according to preliminary data from CME Group. On the other hand, volume decreased by around 12K contracts, reaching the second drop in a row. USD/JPY targets the 108.30 areaUSD/JPY’s advance on Thursday was on the back of rising open interest and declining volume. Against this backdrop, further upside is not ruled out with the key 200-day SMA in the 108.30 zone emerging as the next resistance of relevance.

If the US struggles, the rest of the world suffers, and the dollar is demand, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Leaders in the old co

If the US struggles, the rest of the world suffers, and the dollar is demand, FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Leaders in the old continent remain at loggerheads over the economic relief for the crisis. Without an immediate solution to the fast-evolving problem, the euro has room to the downside. Markit’s final Service Purchasing Managers’ Indexes will likely confirm the weakness.” “The first coronavirus-impacted Non-Farm Payrolls report lags jobless claims by around two weeks. While it is unlikely to show the devastating destruction of jobs, a loss of 100,000 positions is on the cards. The figures could be a win-win for the dollar.” “The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is due out after the NFP, but may still move markets. Economists expect a sharp drop below 50.” “The rapid spread of the Covid-19 in America may prove as another boost for the safe-haven greenback.”  

Turkey Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.55%) in March: Actual (0.57%)

Spain Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (2.1%) in February

Turkey Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.48% to 0.87% in March

Turkey Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 11.86% above expectations (11.85%) in March

Turkey Producer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 9.26% to 8.5% in March

Nothing seems to have changed much for the cable and traders are likely to wait for a sustained break through the recent range before positioning for

Nothing seems to have changed much for the cable and traders are likely to wait for a sustained break through the recent range before positioning for the next leg of a directional move, as FXStreet’s analyst Haresh Menghani notes. Key quotes “A sustained strength above the 1.2475-85 hurdle, leading to a subsequent move beyond the key 1.2500 psychological mark might now be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.” “On the flip side, the 1.2300 round-figure mark is likely to protect the immediate downside, which is followed by weekly lows, around the 1.2245-40 region.”  

Speaking on television, French government spokeswoman Sibeth Ndiaye hinted that the government is likely to extend the lockdown measures. more to come

Speaking on television, French government spokeswoman Sibeth Ndiaye hinted that the government is likely to extend the lockdown measures.   more to come ...

ECB's Rehn: Euro area needs strong fiscal policy response more to come ...

ECB's Rehn: Euro area needs strong fiscal policy response   more to come ...

France Budget dipped from previous €-20B to €-35.21B in February

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen to 79,69

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has risen to 79,696, with a total of 1,017 deaths reported as of Wednesday.      Cases rose by 6,174 in Germany when compared with the previous day while the death toll climbed by 145. Despite the growing cases of infection, the curve seems to be flattening, with an average of approximately 9% rise in the confirmed new cases over the past week. Europe’s most powerful economy is likely to contract in the coming quarters, in the face of the virus impact. Among other updates Australia has reported almost 5,300 cases and 28 deaths so far. Indonesia has recorded 170 deaths related to COVID-19, the highest toll in Southeast Asia, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Confirmed cases in the country stand at 1,790 — fewer than Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, the data showed. Total number of COVID19 positive cases rises to 2301 in India, including 156 cured/discharged, 56 deaths and 1 migrated, the Health Ministry said on Friday.  

Following the recent price action in NZD/USD, FX Strategists at UOB Group expect the pair to remain side-lined for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour

Following the recent price action in NZD/USD, FX Strategists at UOB Group expect the pair to remain side-lined for the time being. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD traded between 0.5881 and 0.5973 yesterday, relatively close to our expected range of 0.5890/0.5990. The underlying tone has weakened and a dip below the strong support at 0.5880 would not be surprising. That said, 0.5850 is another strong support and this level may not yield as easily. On the upside, 0.5980 is likely strong enough to cap any intraday recovery (minor resistance is at 0.5950).” Next 1-3 weeks: “While our ‘strong support’ level of 0.5880 ‘survived’ for the second straight day (overnight low of 0.5881), the price action is enough to indicate that last Friday’s (27 Mar) high of 0.6067 is a short-term top. From here, the immediate risk is tilted to the downside but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.5820/0.6020 range (a sustained decline below 0.5820 appears unlikely for now). In other words, NZD is likely to trade within a broad range a period.”

The Kiwi is holding up well even as the USD strengthens. Technical signals are mixed and analysts at ANZ Bank expect more range-trading. Key quotes “N

The Kiwi is holding up well even as the USD strengthens. Technical signals are mixed and analysts at ANZ Bank expect more range-trading. Key quotes “NZD/USD has held reasonably steady overnight despite broad USD strength, with the latter somewhat surprising given the surge in jobless claims data.”  “Continued range trading seems likely as we head into the weekend. The break of the uptrend channel on Wednesday hasn’t had momentum lower, leaving us neutral.” “Support 0.5830 Resistance 0.6100”  

CME Group’s preliminary data for GBP futures markets noted investors reversed seven consecutive daily pullbacks and rose by just 592 contracts on Thur

CME Group’s preliminary data for GBP futures markets noted investors reversed seven consecutive daily pullbacks and rose by just 592 contracts on Thursday. In the same line, volume prolonged the erratic performance and rose by only 506 contracts. GBP/USD remains consolidative below 1.2500Cable is extending the side-lined trading for yet another session on Friday. Rising open interest and volume leave the scenario for extra rangebound unchanged for the time being, always navigating below the key barrier at 1.2500 the figure.

EUR/USD Friday’s four-hour chart is decidedly bearish, pointing to losses, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “The EUR/USD pair is

EUR/USD Friday’s four-hour chart is decidedly bearish, pointing to losses, according to FXStreet’s analyst Yohay Elam. Key quotes “The EUR/USD pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages, and the Relative Strength Index is above 30 – outside oversold conditions.” “Support awaits at 1.0820, Thursday’s low, followed by 1.0750, which was a stepping stone on the way up.” “Resistance awaits at 1.09, which provided support earlier this week, and it is followed by 1.0970, which held it down around the same time.”

The risk is skewed to the downside in the AUD/USD pair, which is about to challenge 0.6000, Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet reports. Key quotes “The AU

The risk is skewed to the downside in the AUD/USD pair, which is about to challenge 0.6000, Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet reports. Key quotes “The AUD/USD pair is offering a moderate bearish stance, according to the 4-hour chart, as it continues to trade below its 20 SMA, while around a bearish 100 SMA.”  “A break below the 0.6000 threshold should open doors for a steeper decline.” “Support levels: 0.6035 0.6000 Resistance levels: 0.6075 0.6110”

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the upside pressure in Cable is expected to mitigate on a breach of the 1.2200 mark. Key Quotes 24-hour vie

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the upside pressure in Cable is expected to mitigate on a breach of the 1.2200 mark. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP traded sideways between 1.2349 and 1.2476, a much narrower range than our expected range of 1.2300/1.2490. The price action offers no fresh clues and GBP could continue to trade sideways between the two strong levels of 1.2300 and 1.2490 for now.” Next 1-3 weeks: “After rising quickly to 1.2484 last Friday (27 Mar), GBP has not been able to make much headway on the upside as it traded in a relatively quiet manner over the last few days. For now, we are holding on to our view that the ‘current recovery has scope to extend higher but prospect for a move above 1.2550 is not high’. To look at it another way, there is chance for GBP to test 1.2550 first before a pull-back can be expected. On the downside, a breach of 1.2200 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.2100) would indicate the current upward pressure has dissipated.”

Asian stocks part ways from Thursday’s Wall Street close as risk-tone heavies during the early Friday. Fresh doubts over the US President Donald Trump

Asian equities remain under pressure amid the pre-NFP trading lull.Washington extends lockdown, Wuhan Chief cites risk of coronavirus resurgence.US President Trump repeated ‘hopes’ for an oil production cut.ADB cuts China’s GDP forecast, Moody’s slash for Japan.Asian stocks part ways from Thursday’s Wall Street close as risk-tone heavies during the early Friday. Fresh doubts over the US President Donald Trump’s claim of brokering an oil production deal as well as coronavirus woes keep the Asian share traders depressed amid the pre-NFP time. Following Thursday’s comments from Russian spokesperson, US President Trump’s reiteration of the ‘hope’ that Saudi Arabia and Russia agreeing over 15 million barrels per day of output cut remain skeptical. On the other hand, the coronavirus crisis renewed pressure on the risk-tone as Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in the city is still high. Further, Washington extended the lockdown period. Additionally, Asian Development Bank (ADB) slashes China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% versus 5.2% previous estimate whereas the global rating giant Moody’s expects Japan’s GDP to contract by 2.4% in 2020. Elsewhere, S&P affirms the US AA+ credit rating with a stable outlook. Amid all this, the US 10-year treasury yields drop four basis points (bps) to 0.59% while MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan drops near 0.40% by the press time. Further, Japan’s NIKKEI recently bounced off the negative territory after  Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said he has agreed with PM Shinzo Abe to offer 300,000 yen in cash payments per household that suffers a certain degree of income declines from coronavirus pandemic. The economic calendar flashed higher than expected figures of China’s Caixin Services PMMI and Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI but failed to keep traders hopeful. Market players now await March month's employment data from the US with ISM Non-Manufacturing surprising awaited more due to survey proximity with the US coronavirus outbreak.

Fumio Kishida, Chairman of Japan’s ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said he has agreed with PM Shinzo Abe to offer 300,000 yen in cash pay

Fumio Kishida, Chairman of Japan’s ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) said he has agreed with PM Shinzo Abe to offer 300,000 yen in cash payments per household that suffers a certain degree of income declines from coronavirus pandemic.

Russia Purchasing Manager Index Services: 37.1 (March) vs previous 52

Russia’s TASS news agency quotes some Saudi Arabian sources with knowledge of the matter, saying that the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) is said to be pr

Russia’s TASS news agency quotes some Saudi Arabian sources with knowledge of the matter, saying that the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) is said to be preparing for a meeting. The meeting could possibly happen next week, TASS reported.

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by almost 2K contracts on Thursday following two consecutive daily pullbacks, according to advanced readings

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by almost 2K contracts on Thursday following two consecutive daily pullbacks, according to advanced readings from CME Group. Volume, in the same line, increased by nearly 14.7K contracts, extending the choppy activity. EUR/USD now looks to 1.0777 Thursday’s negative price action in EUR/USD was on the back of rising both open interest and volume, hinting at the likeliness that further weakness lie ahead. That said, the February’s low at 1.0777 now emerges as the next key support.

Gold trades with mild losses near three-day high, currently down 0.07% around $1,612, while heading into the European session on Friday. Although repe

Gold struggles between 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and near-term key resistance line.Bullish MACD, sustained trading beyond key supports keep buyers hopeful.100-day SMA, 38.2% will keep sellers away.Gold trades with mild losses near three-day high, currently down 0.07% around $1,612, while heading into the European session on Friday. Although repeated failures to take out the monthly trend line portrays the underlying weakness in momentum, bullish MACD and sustained trading beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month downside keep buyers hopeful. As a result, a daily closing beyond $1,620 will push prices upwards to a one-week high surrounding $1,645 ahead of targeting $1,680 and $1,700. On the contrary, the bullion’s break below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,616 can recall 21-day SMA, currently near $1,586. However, a confluence of 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $,1550/47 will question the bears afterward. Gold daily chart Trend: Bullish  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD stays weak although a move to YTD lows looks unlikely in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “W

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD stays weak although a move to YTD lows looks unlikely in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected EUR to weaken yesterday but held the view that it is ‘unlikely to threaten the strong support at 1.0840’. The subsequent weakness exceeded our expectation as EUR slumped to an overnight low of 1.0819. The breach of the strong support coupled with improved downward momentum suggests EUR is likely to weaken further towards 1.0785. For today, the next support at 1.0750 is likely out of reach. Overall, the current downward pressure in EUR is deemed intact unless it can recover back above 1.0900 (minor resistance is at 1.0870).” Next 1-3 weeks: “The ease by which EUR took out the strong support at 1.0840 came as a surprise (overnight low of 1.0819). The rapid decline and the subsequent weak daily closing in NY (1.0856, -0.96%) suggest there is room for EUR to weaken further in the coming days. At this stage, it is premature to expect EUR to revisit last month’s low at 1.0635 (there is a relatively strong support at 1.0700). Meanwhile, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.0980 (‘strong resistance’ level).”

The Italian daily newspaper, Corriere della Sera, carried the latest headlines on Friday, citing that Italy is considering up to EUR40 billion worth o

The Italian daily newspaper, Corriere della Sera, carried the latest headlines on Friday, citing that Italy is considering up to EUR40 billion worth on new stimulus packages to extend its fight against the coronavirus pandemic.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 3: The US dollar has been consolidating its gains as tension mounts toward the US Non-Farm Payrolls, in

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 3: The US dollar has been consolidating its gains as tension mounts toward the US Non-Farm Payrolls, in typical jobs Friday trading. Economists expect the first coronavirus-impacted jobs figures to show a loss of only 100,000 jobs. It is critical to remember that the government conducts surveys for the NFP on the week that consists of March 12 – thus not capturing the latest lockdowns. Wage growth is set to increase by 0.2% monthly and 3% annually. See:Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Is the dollar’s fate sealed?US Non-Farm Payrolls March preview: If it’s terrible, it’s expected, if it’s not, April will beThe more up-to-date Unemployment Claims figures for the week ending on March 28 have shown a doubling to 6.648 million – beyond the worst estimates – and while several states struggled to process all requests. Lockdowns are taking their toll and the economic damage is here to stay. COVID-19 has already infected more than one million people and taken the lives of over 50,000. Around 50% of the deaths are in Italy, Spain, and France, while around a quarter of infections are in the US. Washington State has extended its stay-at-home orders until May 4, while several European countries are on course to lengthen the confinements to beyond Easter.Europe: The European Commission and the Eurogroup have been trying to find creative solutions to providing aid to stricken countries while refraining from mutualizing the debt – which Germany opposes. Negotiations continue. EUR/USD has completed a fall of more than 50% from the 1.0640-1.1150 rise.In the UK, the number of mortalities continues rising quickly, but that is partially due to a change in counting methodology. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak expanded the business loan scheme to medium-sized companies. GBP/USD failed in several attempts to break higher.Oil prices are trying to stabilize after a wild ride on Thursday. President Donald Trump said he hopes Russia and Saudi Arabia will strike a deal to cut ten and potentially 15 million barrels of daily crude production. While Saudi Arabia followed up with a call for an urgent OPEC+ meeting, Russia denied any talks were underway. WTI shot higher from around $22 to above $27 before reverting to below $24. The last word of the week belongs to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index. While it is published after the employment statistics, the forward-looking figures may move markets. See: Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: The disaster may be delayed...until AprilCryptocurrencies have retreated from the highs seen late on Thursday when Bitcoin surpassed the $7,000 mark. More: Explained: What indicators matter in coronavirus times

In an interview on Friday, the European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said that the Commission is open to all options and an ambitious

In an interview on Friday, the European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said that the Commission is open to all options and an ambitious response is needed when asked whether the European Union (EU) was in favor of using Eurobonds in coronavirus crisis. more to come ....

The greenback is looking to add to Thursday’s gains and stays bid above the key 100.00 barrier when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Dollar In

DXY keeps business above the 100.00 mark.The global focus gyrates around the COVID-19.US Non-farm Payrolls next of relevance in the docket.The greenback is looking to add to Thursday’s gains and stays bid above the key 100.00 barrier when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Dollar Index focused on data, coronavirus The index is posting gains for the third session in a row on Friday, managing to extend the upside momentum beyond the key barrier at 100.00 the figure and record at the same time fresh multi-day highs. In the meantime, the developments around the coronavirus and its impact on the economy remains in centre stage and gained extra attention on Thursday after the Initial Claims rose by a shocking 6.65 million during last week, showing that more than 10 million US citizens filed for unemployment benefits in the last couple of weeks. By the same token, the dollar’s momentum is also underpinned by safe haven demand and increasing weakness in its rival currencies like the euro and the British pound. Later in the session, the focus of attention will be on the monthly labour market report, where Non-farm Payrolls are expected to drop by around 100K jobs and the jobless rate is seen ticking higher to 3.8% in March. However, the significance of the report has dwindled as of late and would be largely anticipated by market participants, as these figures will not show the sharp deterioration of the labour market experienced since the second half of the month of March. Still in the US, the key ISM Non-Manufacturing will also be in the limelight later in the NA session. What to look for around USD DXY has regained the upper hand so far this week after bottoming out in the 98.30 region in past sessions, managing to retake the key 100.00 barrier and above amidst firm safe haven demand. Indeed, market participants seem to prefer the dollar vs. other safe havens like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in a context of prevailing risk aversion, all in response to unabated concerns surrounding the coronavirus and its impact on the economy. Further support for the buck comes from its status of “global reserve currency” and store of value. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is gaining 0.12% at 100.23 and a breakout of 100.41 (weekly/monthly high Apr.2) would open the door to 100.49 (78.6% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) seconded by 98.07 (200-day SMA) and then 97.87 (61.8% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop).

FX option expiries for Apr 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0750 934m 1.0900 574m - GBP/USD: GBP

FX option expiries for Apr 3 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0750 934m 1.0900 574m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.2455 373m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          107.45 430m 107.50 355m 108.00 2.0bn 108.35 890m

China’s Vice Finance Minister was out on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, noting that the government debt levels are generally under control. Rai

China’s Vice Finance Minister was out on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, noting that the government debt levels are generally under control. Raising budget deficit ratio and issuing special treasury bonds would need approval from the parliament, he said. This comes after China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator Vice Head said they will support local governments to inject capital into small banks. Related articles China’s Commerce Ministry: Coronavirus pandemic causes new negative impact on attracting foreign investment PBOC’s Liu: Should consider CPI and other factors before adjusting benchmark deposit rate

WTI extends the early-day pullback from the two-week top while declining to $23.75, down 1.85%, ahead of the European session open on Friday.

WTI fails to keep buyers hopeful as fears of coronavirus outbreak renew.China’s Caixin Services PMI came in positive, US President Donald Trump reiterated hopes for Saudi-Russian pact for an oil production cut.US economic docket, virus news will be the key for near-term direction.WTI extends the early-day pullback from the two-week top while declining to $23.75, down 1.85%, ahead of the European session open on Friday. The oil traders fail to cheer the US President Donald Trump’s ‘hope’ for production cut as coronavirus crisis continues to hit the trade sentiment. While reiterating his Thursday’s market-moving tweet, US President Donald Trump said that he hopes Russia, Saudi Arabia will reach a deal to cut production by as many as 15 million barrels per day (bpd) soon. However, markets were more concerned about the fresh fears of coronavirus resurgence risk as indicated by the Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan. Also questioning the risk-tone was Washington’s extended lockdown as well as Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) cut to China’s 2020 GDP forecast. In doing so, the traders ignored China’s March month Caixin Services PMI that followed the footsteps of recent activity data while rising beyond 26.5 to 43. The US 10-year Treasury yields buck the previous day’s recovery, down four basis points (bps) to 0.59% while stocks in Asia also flash negative signals. Oil traders may now keep eyes on the US President’s meeting with the key oil company leaders as well as the economic calendar that carries US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, NFP and Baker Huges Oil Rig Counts. Technical analysis Sellers may keep eyes on $20.00 on the radar unless breaking $28.00 mark, which nears March 19/20 high.  

The relentless rise in the coronavirus cases world-wide continues to keep the investors on the edge. The US dollar continued to enjoy the safe-haven f

The relentless rise in the coronavirus cases world-wide continues to keep the investors on the edge. The US dollar continued to enjoy the safe-haven flows, as the Asian equities turned negative alongside the US stock futures and Treasury yields. COVID-19 cases surpass 1M worldwide with over 50,000 death toll. Oil prices, meanwhile, consolidated the corrective slide from $27.30 to $23.34 amid hopes of Saudi-Russia deal to cut the oil output, as cited by US President Donald Trump. The traditional safety bet, gold, fell back in the red zone but managed to stay above the 1600 mark. On the fx front, the anti-risk yen attempted a tepid recovery and dragged USD/JPY back below 108.00. The Aussie cheered upbeat Australian Retail Sales and China’s Caixin Services PMI and headed towards 0.6100 while the Kiwi dollar battled 0.5900.  The Canadian dollar tripped in tandem with oil prices, with USD/CAD firmer above 1.4150. Among the European currencies, EUR/USD is off the six-day low but not out the woods yet, around 1.0850. GBP/USD also traded with mild losses below 1.2400. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc traded better bid vs. the US dollar amid broad risk-aversion. Main topics in Asia US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin: First support payments to be direct deposited within two weeks UK Chancellor Sunak overhauls small business scheme after deluge of insolvencies–Mirror Trump: Hopes Russia, Saudi Arabia will reach deal to cut production by as many as 15 mln bpd soon US AA+ rating affirmed by S&P, outlook stable Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in city still high Australia Retail Feb Sales: 0.5% MoM (expected 0.4%) Trump : “We hit 3M hard today after seeing what they were doing with their masks” ADB cuts China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% China Caixin/IHS Markit March Services PMI at 43.0 vs 26.5 in February Japan’s Nishimura: Govt aims to decide on economic package early next week RBNZ’s Orr: Central bank can increase the monetary stimulus if needed NZ FinMin Robertson: Giving temporary relief for entities that are unable to comply with requirements due to coronavirus PBOC’s Liu: Should consider CPI and other factors before adjusting benchmark deposit rate Australian PM Morrison: Early modeling work on virus suggests Australia is tracking well Key focus ahead         Another busy docket today in Europe, as the Final Services PMI reports from across the Euro area economies will start trickling in from 0715 GMT onwards while the UK one will drop in at 0830 GMT. The Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI, due at 0900 GMT, will be also watched out for some fresh trading incentives. The NA traders will pay close attention to the US Non-Farm Payrolls data for March, in the face of the virus impact on the country’s job market. The data will be reported at 1230 GMT, followed by the Markit and ISM US Services PMIs around 1400 GMT. Markets will also take note of the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count data due at 1700 GMT. Despite all the macro updates lined up for release, incoming virus-linked developments and dollar price movement will continue to remain a major driving force across the markets. EUR/USD in a phase of bearish consolidation around 1.0850, US NFP eyed With the US dollar bulls taking a breather following the latest upsurge, EUR/USD is licking its wounds ahead of the European open. The spot trades close to the six-day lows reached Thursday at 1.0820, as it awaits the critical US data for the next direction. GBP/USD: Weaker below 1.2400 ahead of UK PMI, US data GBP/USD bears the burden of broad US dollar strength while waiting for fresh impulse. UK plans to issue coronavirus “immunity passports”. Final reading of the UK’s March PMIs, US jobs report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be in focus. US Non-Farm Payrolls March preview: If it’s terrible, it’s expected, if it’s not, April will be Payrolls expected to lose 100,000 in March, first decrease since September 2010. Initial jobless claims average 4.9 million for two weeks. Dollar retains safe-haven status as public health crisis is unabated. US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for March: The disaster may be delayed...until April PMI expected to take largest one-month plunge in series history to the lowest level since the financial crisis. Data will not fully reflect the economic impact of the public health crisis.  

EUR/USD has already lost more than 50% of its gains from 1.0640 to 1.1150. Will it continue lower? The all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls awaits trade

EUR/USD has already lost more than 50% of its gains from 1.0640 to 1.1150. Will it continue lower? The all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls awaits traders.    The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that robust resistance awaits at 1.0879, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and the previous yearly low.  The next cap is at 1.0913, where three Simple Moving Averages meet: the 10-one-day, the 200-15m, and the 50-15m.  The upside target is 1.0970, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and the previous daily high. Support awaits at 1.0834, which is a juncture including the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and the previous 4h-low. Further down, the downside target is 1.0801, where the Pivot Point one-week Support 1, the Bollinger Band 1h-Lower, and the PP one-day S1 converge.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -8.9% below forecasts (-0.3%) in February

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) came in at -8.6% below forecasts (0.7%) in February

Following its U-turn from the record top during the early-week, USD/IDR takes rounds to 16,570 amid the pre-Europe session on Friday. Although the pul

USD/IDR struggles for firm direction after pulling from the record high.10-day SMA, monthly support line restrict immediate downside.Buyers will look for entry beyond 17,155 for fresh entry.Following its U-turn from the record top during the early-week, USD/IDR takes rounds to 16,570 amid the pre-Europe session on Friday. Although the pullback dragged the quote below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its February-March upside, the quote is still above its near-term key supports, namely a 10-day SMA level of 16,360, an ascending trend line from March 10 near 15,990 and 21-day SMA around 15,600. Not only the pair’s trading beyond important supports but bullish MACD also keeps buyers hopeful. Even so, fresh buying interests are likely to be witnessed above 17,150/55 area including highs marked on March 23 and April 02. Following that, the recent record high near 17,760 could offer an intermediate halt before pushing the bulls to 18,000 mark. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Despite the good news for medium-sized UK businesses, GBP/USD remains on the back foot near 1.2370 while heading into the London open on Friday. While

GBP/USD bears the burden of broad US dollar strength while waiting for fresh impulse.UK plans to issue coronavirus “immunity passports”, Chancellor Sunak includes mid-sized businesses to aid package.EU jurisdiction will dominate the British law until full Brexit, warns top UK judges.Final reading of the UK’s March PMIs, US jobs report and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be in focus.Despite the good news for medium-sized UK businesses, GBP/USD remains on the back foot near 1.2370 while heading into the London open on Friday. While the broad US dollar strength, amid coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, keeps the pair heavy, Cable traders seem to wait for the busy economic docket for fresh direction. During early Asia, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak extended the state-backed aid packages to medium-sized firms with turnovers as high as £500 million. On the other hand, Health Secretary Matt Hancock also suggested the idea of issuing certificates to allow people who have built up immunity to the coronavirus to return to normal like, per Business Insider. The UK politics are also getting hot as the voting to replace the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn closes. Additionally, the top UK judge warns that the British judiciary system will take clues from the European rules unless last Brexit-day. It should be noted that the coronavirus cases in the were  33,718 as of 08:00 GMT on April 2nd whereas there was a 24% hike in the death toll to 2,921 at the same time. Elsewhere, the Washington Governor extended the stay-at-home order whereas S&P affirmed its US rating at AA+ with expectations of a recovery in 2021. Market’s risk-tone remains mildly heavy with the US 10-year treasury yields dipping back below 0.60% and most Asian stocks following the footsteps. Traders will keep eyes on the economic calendar with the final readings of the UK’s March month activity data likely to offer intermediate halts ahead of the US NFP and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. Technical analysis GBP/USD remains capped between 21-day SMA, currently at 1.2265 and 1.2485/95 region comprising March 12 low and March 27 high.  

With the US dollar bulls taking a breather following the latest upsurge, EUR/USD is licking its wounds ahead of the European open. The spot trades clo

EUIR/USD keeps suffering on unabated US dollar demand.Coronavirus fed risk-off boosts the safe-haven appeal of USD.Next of note remains the Eurozone Services PMIs ahead of US NFP. With the US dollar bulls taking a breather following the latest upsurge, EUR/USD is licking its wounds ahead of the European open. The spot trades close to the six-day lows reached Thursday at 1.0820, as it awaits the critical US data for the next direction. US dollar undeterred by downbeat US data The US dollar rallied to the highest levels in six days against its six major rivals on Thursday, as the safe-haven demand for the buck remains unabated amid intensifying coronavirus spread and its growing risks on the global economy. A jump of 6.648 million in the US Initial Jobless Claims fail to deter the dollar rally, as the total number of virus cases globally surpassed 1 million, with over 50k deaths reported, further fueled the risk-averse market conditions. The US dollar index now trades at 100.25, having reached a multi-day high at 100.40. On the EUR-side of the story, despite the improving health situation in Italy, Spain remains a big concern now while markets have already priced in a recession in the European economies, especially in Germany.  The lockdowns across Europe are heavily weighing on its economic activities. Looking ahead, the USD dynamics will continue to play a pivotal role, as attention shifts to the Euro area Final Services PMI reports, US Non-Farm Payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data due later this Friday. EUR/USD technical levels to watch  

According to strategists polled by Reuters, the Indian rupee is seen recovering ground gains the US dollar in the next year, although it will still re

According to strategists polled by Reuters, the Indian rupee is seen recovering ground gains the US dollar in the next year, although it will still remain in the woods among other Emerging Market currencies (EM), in light of the coronavirus pandemic. Key findings “The rupee would strengthen 3.1% to 74.00 per US dollar in a year from 76.39 on Thursday, based on the median forecast. Forecasts ranged from 71.50 to 80.00, implying a 6.4% rise to a 4.7% decline. The latest outlook matches a wider poll of strategists, who forecast EM currencies would make up some lost ground. Most expect the U.S. dollar's strength to remain intact over the next three months. The rupee is forecast to trade at 75.55 and 76.00 per dollar by the end of April and mid-year, respectively. Those forecasts were also in a relatively wide range, 72.45 to 79.00. Of the 39 respondents polled, 17 still expected the rupee to depreciate beyond its recent record low at some point over the next year. Some strategists said the RBI's interventions prevented the rupee from falling further.” USD/INR implications USD/INR is off the record high reached on Thursday at 76.43, now trading near 76.00 following India’s Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s national address about the coronavirus situation.

While funneling down the weekly trading range between 21/10-day SMAs, USD/CAD prints mild gains while taking the bids to 1.4155 during early Friday.

USD/CAD funnels down to the exit between 21-day and 10-day SMAs.A two-week-old falling trend line adds strength to the resistance.The late-March low will be on the bears’ radars on the downside break.While funneling down the weekly trading range between 21/10-day SMAs, USD/CAD prints mild gains while taking the bids to 1.4155 during early Friday. In addition to 10-day SMA, a downward sloping trend line from March 19, also guard the pair’s immediate upside around 1.4185/90. On the downside, 1.4085 comprising 21-day SMA seems to restrict the pair’s near-term declines. While 1.4350 is likely on the bulls’ radars on the break above 1.4190, 1.4000 can offer an intermediate halt, below 1.4085, before dragging the quote to March 27 low surrounding 1.3920. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Sideways  

In its latest review report on the Japanese economy, the US-based Moody’s Investors Services said on Friday, it expects Japan’s GDP to contract by 2.4

In its latest review report on the Japanese economy, the US-based Moody’s Investors Services said on Friday, it expects Japan’s GDP to contract by 2.4% in 2020, which will have knock-on effects on the job market. coronavirus will impact Japanese consumer asset-backed securities (ABS); risks vary among asset classes, Moody’s noted. USD/JPY reaction At the moment, USD/JPY is ranging around 108 levels, caught between a broadly firmer US dollar and risk-averse market environment amid lingering coronavirus fears.

Australian Prime Minister (PM) Scott Morrison is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that early modeling work on virus suggests Australia is trackin

Australian Prime Minister (PM) Scott Morrison is on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that early modeling work on virus suggests Australia is tracking well.   more to follow ...

Following a press conference on Friday, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Vice Governor Liu Guoqiang said that the central bank should consider CPI and ot

Following a press conference on Friday, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Vice Governor Liu Guoqiang said that the central bank should consider CPI and other factors before adjusting benchmark deposit rate. Further comments Need to consider further before changing deposit rate - need a complete evaluation before changing. Deposit rate is a tool, need to be balanced in its use. Related articles China’s Commerce Ministry: Coronavirus pandemic causes new negative impact on attracting foreign investment USD/CNH mildly positive around 7.1000 following China Caixin Services PMI

New Zealand (NZ) Finance Minister Grant Robertson gave an update on the latest in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic on Friday. Key quotes Allowi

New Zealand (NZ) Finance Minister Grant Robertson gave an update on the latest in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic on Friday. Key quotes Allowing the use of electronic signatures where necessary due to COVID-19 restrictions. Giving the Registrar of Companies the power to temporarily extend deadlines imposed on companies, incorporated societies, charitable trusts and other entities under legislation. Giving temporary relief for entities that are unable to comply with requirements in their constitutions or rules because of COVID-19. Businesses struggling to re-pay debts will be able to put them in "hibernation" for six months. If a company was doing well before Covid-19, they should be okay after, given the Government's support. It was inevitable that some businesses would go into liquidation - but he couldn't say how many. These new rules will help them buy some time. RBNZ’s Orr: Central bank can increase the monetary stimulus if needed NZD/USD: Muted reaction to China data, Friday’s close pivotal

Coronavirus pandemic causes new negative impact on attracting foreign investment, business resumption of foreign-invested firms, said an official at t

Coronavirus pandemic causes new negative impact on attracting foreign investment, business resumption of foreign-invested firms, said an official at the Chinese Commerce Ministry on Friday. Additional quotes Closely monitoring progress of key foreign investment projects. Will encourage foreign investment to flow to areas such as advanced technology and energy conservation. Asks local govts to attract foreign investment in Midwest China and northeast rustbelt region. Will further reduce negative list for foreign investment. Will minimize impact from coronavirus pandemic on foreign investment. Separately, China’s Banking and Insurance Regulator Vice Head said that the risks of global economic recession are rising. He added that China banks made new loans of 7 trillion yuan in Q1. USD/CNH mildly positive around 7.1000 following China Caixin Services PMI USD/CNH fails to cheer upbeat China data amid coronavirus resurgence risk. ADB cuts China’s GDP forecast for 2020. Risk-tone remains heavy, eyes US data/virus updates for fresh impulse.

China’s better than forecast Caixin Services PMI fails to exert any downside pressure on the USD/CNH, currently up 0.20% to the intraday high near 7.1

USD/CNH fails to cheer upbeat China data amid coronavirus resurgence risk.ADB cuts China’s GDP forecast for 2020.Risk-tone remains heavy, eyes US data/virus updates for fresh impulse.China’s better than forecast Caixin Services PMI fails to exert any downside pressure on the USD/CNH, currently up 0.20% to the intraday high near 7.1065, as markets in China open for Friday’s trading. China’s March month Caixin Services PMI followed the footsteps of Manufacturing gauge while surging beyond prior 26.5 to 43.00. Read: China Caixin/IHS Markit March Services PMI at 43.0 vs 26.5 in February The reasons for the latest run-up could be traced from the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) downbeat projection of China’s 2020 GDP growth. ADB slashes China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% vs. 5.2% previous estimate. Also propelling the pair could be comments from Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan who said that the risk of coronavirus resurgence in the city is still high. On the other hand, Washington Governor stretched stay-at-home order until May 04, 2020. Further, the global rating giant S&P held its US credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook while also expecting the economic losses to offset in 2021. Market’s risk-tone remains heavy as the US 10-year treasury yields fail to carry the previous day’s recovery move, currently down three basis points (bps) to 0.598%, while stocks in China marks mild losses by the press time. Looking forward, investors will keep eyes on virus updates for fresh impulse ahead of the US session whereas in the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is likely to take the seat of monthly employment data. The reason could be traced from the survey dates and their proximity to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the US. Technical analysis Buyers will have to justify their strength by clearing 7.1425/30 area, comprising highs marked since March 25, 2020, else a pullback to 21-day SMA level of 7.06000 can’t be ruled out.  

NZD/USD is barely moving in response to the China service sector data released at 01:45 GMT. Caixin’s Services PMI for March came in at 43 versus Febr

With risk under pressure, NZD/USD is struggling to cheer the slight improvement in the China data. China's Services PMI remained below 50 in March, but printed well above February's reading of 26.Thursday's Doji candle suggests indecision and makes Friday's close pivotal.NZD/USD is barely moving in response to the China service sector data released at 01:45 GMT.  Caixin’s Services PMI for March came in at 43 versus February’s reading of 26. While a below-50 reading indicates contraction, the pace of decline in the activity eased in March.  Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s governor Orr was out on the wires early Friday, stating that the bank can increase stimulus and maintain it for a longer period of time, if needed. The market, however, is in no mood to cheer the slight improvement in China’s data or assurances from RBNZ’s Orr, possibly because the number of coronavirus cases across the globe continue to rise and have crossed the 1 million mark.  The situation in the US, the world’s largest economy is deteriorating, as suggested by the record weekly jobless claims figure released Thursday. Adding to concerns are reports that China risks a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak, which originated in the country’s wuhan province. With risk under pressure, as shown by the decline in the S&P 500 futures, the NZD/USD pair could feel the pull of gravity. The pair is currently sidelined near 0.5910, having created a Doji candle on Thursday, a sign of indecision in the marketplace.  A close above the Doji candle’s high of 0.5973 would mean the period of indecision has ended with a bullish breakout and could yield a notable upside move. On the other hand, a close under the Doji candle’s low could bring in additional declines.  Technical levels  

In a press interview with NZ Herald earlier this morning. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr said that the central bank can increa

In a press interview with NZ Herald earlier this morning. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr said that the central bank can increase the monetary stimulus if needed. Additional quotes We can continue to provide a monetary stimulus for a long, long time. Rates will remain low for a long time. We've got various means. Confident we will get through this coronavirus crisis together.  NZD/USD: Muted reaction to China data, Friday’s close pivotal

USD/JPY is relatively bid in Asia despite the risk-off tones circulating which would usually keep the yen underpinned. There are concerns over the Jap

The yen is quiet in Asia as markets consolidate the Wall Street session's rally in USD/JPY.USD/JPY was rallying on solid US stocks and a spike in oil prices overnight.USD/JPY is relatively bid in Asia despite the risk-off tones circulating which would usually keep the yen underpinned. There are concerns over the Japanese outbreak of COVID-19 which would potentially jeopardise the yen's safe-haven allure to many. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 108.02 having ranged between 107.80 and 108.19.  Overnight, USD/JPY was quiet until Wall Street kicked in, rallying on solid US stocks and a spike in oil prices which lifed the pair from 107.20 to around 108. US President Donald Trump tweeted that he had held a constructive call with the Saudi Crown Prince and expected OPEC+ with Russia to agree to substantial oil production cuts of 10-15mn barrels per day. More on that here: Trump: Hopes Russia, Saudi Arabia will reach deal to cut production by as many as 15 mln bpd soonOil Asia Price Forecast: US President Trump tweet makes WTI jump 25%Wall Street Close: Chevron and Exxon helped to lift DJIA 450 pointsMeanwhile, the cases of COVID-19 have surpassed the million mark and Japan is now facing a spike in cases as well. The country's COVID-19 fighting team has been sent back to the drawing board and lockdowns with fiscal stimulus will be back in play. The yen will likely be vulnerable under these circumstances as the markets once again focus on the economy's fragility, a deterrent for the currency. Also, the Bank of Japan is limited to what it can other than continuing to practise its unorthodox monetary easing and buying of ETF’s.Breaking: COVID-19 cases surpass 1M worldwide with over 50,000 death toll  As for the US data, "US initial jobless claims for the week to 28th March surged to another record, 6.648 million after the prior week’s 3.307 million (revised from 3.283mn), a 2-week total of almost 10 million jobless claims. The median forecast was 3.76mn but the outcome was within the wide band of analyst estimates," analysts at Westpac explained.  Cumulatively, this puts initial claims over the past two weeks at just under the 10 million mark. During the GFC, non-farm payrolls fell by 8 million, though these don’t map exactly. It all points to a significant rise in the unemployment rate, – analysts at ANZ noted. USD/JPY levelsUSD/JPY Forecast: Modest recovery lacks follow-through 

In a press briefing on Friday, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that the government aims to decide on the economic package early nex

In a press briefing on Friday, Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said that the government aims to decide on the economic package early next week. Further comments Will rush to decide on cash handout system. First steps will support employment, business. Not necessary to declare an emergency yet. Earlier this week also he said that there is no need to declare a state of emergency, despite the growing number of coronavirus cases in Tokyo. USD/JPY reaction Amid negative S&P 500 futures and mixed Asian equities, in the wake of the rising number of the infections globally, USD/JPY struggles to extend the upside beyond 108.00. At the moment, the major trades at 107.96, modestly flat on the day.

Although China’s Caixin Services PMI becomes another activity data to flash positive figures for the dragon nation, AUD/USD remains modestly in loss t

AUD/USD pays a little heed to China’s Caixin Services PMI.61.8% Fibonacci retracement restricts immediate downside.Weekly horizontal resistance adds to the upside barrier.Although China’s Caixin Services PMI becomes another activity data to flash positive figures for the dragon nation, AUD/USD remains modestly in loss to 0.6060 amid the early Friday. China’s March month Caixin Services PMI rose to 43.00 from 26.5 prior. On Thursday, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI also flashed upbeat data. Read: China Caixin/IHS Markit March Services PMI at 43.0 vs 26.5 in February Earlier during the day, Aussie Retail Sales flashed upbeat figures, +0.5% versus 0.4% forecast, but failed to impress the buyers. That said, trades may again target 50% Fibonacci retracement of March 26-31 upside, at 0.6000, while further downside may take rest around 0.5980. Alternatively, a sustained break beyond a 200-hour EMA level of 0.6070 needs validation from the weekly horizontal area close to 0.6110/20. Should AUD/USD prices remain strong beyond 0.6120, March 31 high near 0.6215 will be on the bulls’ radars. AUD/USD hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

China Caixin/IHS Markit March Services PMI at 43.0 (vs 26.5 in February) – making 46.7 for the composite. AUD/USD was unresponsive to this and was als

China Caixin/IHS Markit March Services PMI at 43.0 (vs 26.5 in February) – making 46.7 for the composite. AUD/USD was unresponsive to this and was also muted on the Retail Sales beat, (more on that here AUD/USD remains sidelined near 0.6055 despite upbeat Aussie data). "Looking ahead, the outlook should continue to improve as restrictions are lifted in April," analysts at Westpac argued.  Description The Caixin Services PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The panel has been carefully selected to accurately replicate the true structure of the services economy. In other news, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday, lowered its 2020 GDP growth forecast for China:ADB cuts China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3%

The mood in the EUR/USD market remains downbeat for the fifth straight day, with the pair hovering near 1.0850 at press time, having hit a low of 1.08

EUR/USD defends key support but struggles to chart a notable bounce. With the spot holding below 1.0890, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. The mood in the EUR/USD market remains downbeat for the fifth straight day, with the pair hovering near 1.0850 at press time, having hit a low of 1.0833 in early Asia. While sellers pushed the pair down by nearly 1% on Thursday, they failed to establish a foothold under 1.0831 - the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.0636 to 1.1148. So far, however, the bear failure at key support has failed to invite stronger buying pressure. The bounce from 1.0831 fizzled out near 1.0865 in the overnight trade.   From a technical perspective, the bias remains bearish, as the head-and-shoulders breakdown seen on the hourly chart has opened the doors for a drop to recent lows under 1.0650. The bearish case would be invalidated if the spot rises above the former support-turned-hurdle of the head-and-shoulders neckline hurdle, currently at 1.0890. Hourly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

China Caixin Services PMI increased to 43 in March from previous 26.5

In its latest growth outlook, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday, lowered its 2020 GDP growth forecast for China. Key quotes ADB slashes China

In its latest growth outlook, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday, lowered its 2020 GDP growth forecast for China. Key quotes ADB slashes China’s 2020 GDP forecast to 2.3% vs. 5.2% previous estimate. Sees China much lower this year. China’s 2021 growth forecast seen unchanged at 7.3%.

With the fresh challenges to risk-tone weighing on commodities, Gold snaps the previous two-day winning streak while declining to $1,610, down 0.07%,

Gold fails to extend the previous recovery gains amid fresh challenges to risk.Wuhan Chief cited coronavirus resurgence risk, Washington Governor extends lockdown.S&P keeps US rating/outlook intact, expects a recovery in 2021.US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, employment data will provide fresh impetus.With the fresh challenges to risk-tone weighing on commodities, Gold snaps the previous two-day winning streak while declining to $1,610, down 0.07%, amid early Friday. The recent challenges to the yellow metal are likely from the coronavirus (COVID-19) front. It’s worth mentioning that the bullion earlier seemed to be benefited from the market’s risk-on due to US President Trump’s tweet suggesting an oil production cut pact between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in the city is still high. Adding burden to the risk-tone could be the extended lockdown of Washington state until May 04, 2020. On the contrary, S&P affirmed its AA+ credit rating, with a stable outlook, for the US while also expecting the economic losses to offset in 2021. While portraying the risk-tone the US 10-year Treasury yields drop below 0.60%, down three basis points (bps), whereas the US stock futures also mark losses of near 1.0% by the press time. Even so, stocks in Asia-Pacific are mildly positive following the recent Aussie, Japan data. Being the first Friday of the month, traders will keep eyes on the US economic calendar for fresh direction. However, the headline NFP number might lose its place to the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI due to the timing of the survey in relation to the virus outbreak in the US. “We estimate nonfarm payrolls at -200k, with the unemployment rate increasing to 3.8% from 3.5% in February. Payrolls will probably be down by several million in April. Separately, we expect the non-manufacturing ISM index to fall by much more—from a higher level—than the manufacturing index on Friday. We forecast a decline to 43.0 from 57.3 in February. The recent surge in claims highlights the extent to which COVID-19 is affecting services industries,” said TD Securities. Technical analysis A descending trend line from March 09, currently around $1,620, seems to cap the metal’s near-term advances. Though, sellers will wait for entry unless prices slip below a short-term rising support line near $1,595.  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.1104 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0995.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.1104 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0995.

From USD/MXN’s perspective, Thursday’s oil price rally seems to have gone unnoticed. The currency pair remains sidelined near 24.30, having ended Thur

Oil price rise fails to put a bid under the Mexican Peso. Virus outbreak and fears of deeper economic downturn seem to be keeping the Peso under pressure. From USD/MXN’s perspective, Thursday’s oil price rally seems to have gone unnoticed.  The currency pair remains sidelined near 24.30, having ended Thursday on an indecisive note with a Doji candle. To put it another way, the Mexican Peso failed to draw bids on Thursday and remains flat in Asia.  The black gold’s price, as represented by the West Texas Intermediate crude, jumped by more than 25 percent from $20.80 to $27.32 on Thursday as President Trump said that he spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince, and hoped and expected that Saudi Arabia and Russia would scale back output by 10 million barrels or more.  While WTI ended the day with 16 percent gains, the USD/MXN closed on a flat note. The MXN did rise to 23.76 per US dollar, but the bulls failed to keep gains, allowing the currency to fall back to 24.22 by the end of the day.  At press time, a barrel of WTI is changing hands near $23.80. The pullback in oil prices likely indicates the investors are skeptical that production cuts alone can lift prices back to near recent highs.  Meanwhile, the MXN’s inability to cheer the oil price rise could be attributed to the broad-based dollar demand.  Investors are preferring to hold cash, mainly US dollars, as a prolonged global economic downturn is looking increasingly likely. The idea of a V-shaped recovery no longer looks feasible, as the coronavirus outbreak is showing no signs of slowing down. The number of cases across the globe have crossed above the 1 million mark. The US alone has more than  238,000 cases, according to CNN. Technical levels  

President Donald Trump said Trump said "we hit 3m hard today after seeing what they were doing with their masks" and says company "will have a big pri

President Donald Trump said Trump said "we hit 3m hard today after seeing what they were doing with their masks" and says company "will have a big price to pay". More to come...

Ireland Purchasing Manager Index Services dipped from previous 59.9 to 32.5 in March

Even if US President Donald Trump reiterated his calls for oil production cuts, WTI remains under pressure around $23.75 amid the Asian session on Fri

WTI fails to extend the recovery gains.US President Trump reiterates call for Saudi-Russia pact on an oil production cut.Wuhan’s Chief warns over coronavirus resurgence risk, Washington Governor extends stay-at-home order till May 04.US data, virus headlines and Trump’s contribution to the price moves will be important to watch.Even if US President Donald Trump reiterated his calls for oil production cuts, WTI remains under pressure around $23.75 amid the Asian session on Friday. The black gold fails to cheer the upbeat signals from the US leader amid risk reset. US President Trump said that he hopes Russia, Saudi Arabia will reach a deal to cut production by as many as 15 million barrels per day (bpd) soon. The US leader also mentioned that he did not make concessions with Saudi Arabia and Russia in calls about oil while also turned down US domestic production cut. However, oil traders seem less convinced of the Republican leaders’ updates after the Russian spokesperson defied such a move the previous day. Elsewhere, Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in the city still high while Washington Governor announced an extension of statewide lockdown until May 04. Amid all this, the market’s risk-tone remains a bit heavier with the US Treasury yields bucking the previous day’s recovery while stocks in Asia flash mixed signals. Moving on, the US President’s meeting with the oil industry leaders will be the key to watch whereas US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, NFP and Baker Huges Oil Rig Count will decorate the economic calendar. Technical analysis March 19/20 high surrounding $28.00 becomes the immediate upside barrier while a downside break below $20.00 could renew bearish sentiment.  

Despite better than forecast figures of Aussie Retail Sales, AUD/JPY remains mostly unchanged while taking rounds to 65.40 during Friday’s Asian sessi

AUD/JPY registers modest gains with no major changes after Aussie Retail Sales, Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI.Comments from Wuhan Chief, Washington Governor recently weigh on the risk.US President Trump reiterates call for Saudi-Russia pact.Virus headlines will be the key for near-term direction.Despite better than forecast figures of Aussie Retail Sales, AUD/JPY remains mostly unchanged while taking rounds to 65.40 during Friday’s Asian session. The reason could be traced from Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI. Australia’s February month Retail Sales grew beyond 0.4% forecast and prior -0.3% to +0.5% whereas Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI crossed 32.7 forecast with 33.8. Read: Australia Retail Feb Sales: 0.5% MoM (expected 0.4%) While everybody on the floor cheers China’s ability to conquer the virus, Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in the city still high. Also weighing on the risk are comments from the Washington Governor that suggests an extension of statewide lockdown until May 04. It’s worth mentioning that the global virus cases have already crossed one million mark with the death toll rising beyond 50,000. Earlier during the day, the global rating giant S&P affirmed its AA+ credit rating, with a stable outlook, for the US while also expecting the economic losses to offset in 2021. Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump reiterated his earlier comments suggesting a pact between Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut the oil production, this time with 15 million barrels’ promise. Amid all this, the market’s risk-tone turns heavy with the 10-year US Treasury yields teasing 0.60% mark, down two basis points, even if Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s ASX 200 are mildly positive by the press time. Given the lack of major data left for publishing amid the Asian session, except for China’s Caixin Services PMI, investors will keep eyes on the virus headlines for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Thursday’s bullish hammer keeps buyers directed towards 66.00 unless declining below 64.40.  

The AUD/USD pair is lacking a clear directional bias on Friday, as the Aussie dollar is struggling to draw bids despite the above-forecast Aussie reta

AUD/USD remains flat as upbeat Aussie data fails to inspire the AUD bulls.Australia's retail sales rose more than expected in February. Coronavirus numbers continue to rise and keep markets risk-averse.The AUD/USD pair is lacking a clear directional bias on Friday, as the Aussie dollar is struggling to draw bids despite the above-forecast Aussie retail sales data. Australia's Consumer spending, as represented by retail sales, rose by 0.5% in February, data released at 00:30 GMT showed. Retail sales were forecasted to have risen by 0.4% following January's 0.3% contraction. The upbeat has so far failed to put a bid under the Aussie dollar, which isn't surprising, given the economy is known to have slowed down sharply in March due to the coronavirus outbreak. February data, therefore, is of little relevance now. Also, the risk tone remains soft in Asia with the futures tied to the S&P 500 futures currently reporting a more than 0.5% drop. The coronavirus outbreak is showing no signs of slowing down. There are now more than 1 million cases of the virus globally, with more than 238,000 in the United States, according to CNN. The last three weeks have marked one of the most devastating periods in history for the global economy. Investors are now worried that the global economy is headed for a prolonged period of depression. These fears have been bolstered by the horrible weekly US employment data released on Thursday.  A total of 6.6 million US workers filed for their first week of unemployment benefits in the week ending March 28, according to the Department of Labor. That is a new historic high. The Aussie dollar and other risk assets are likely to remain under pressure on Friday. On the data front, the focus will be on China's Caixin PMI, virus headlines and the US economic calendar. Technical levels  

Retail Sales for February arrived +0.5% mom vs the expected 0.4% and prior -0.3%. More to come...

Retail Sales for February arrived  +0.5% mom vs the expected 0.4% and prior -0.3%. More to come...

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI came in at 33.8, above expectations (32.7) in March

Hong Kong SAR Nikkei Manufacturing PMI increased to 34.9 in March from previous 33.1

Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in February: Actual (0.5%)

The Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in city still high. Key comments Says risk of coronavirus resur

The Communist Party Secretary of China's Wuhan says the risk of coronavirus resurgence in city still high. Key comments Says risk of coronavirus resurgence in city still high. Must guide residents to strengthen self-protection. Says residents of city should avoid going out if not necessary. Must guide residents to strengthen self-protection. Morre to come...
 

GBP/JPY pulls back from the session tops near 134.10 to 133.75 just as Tokyo opens for Friday’s trading. The pair stays between 200 and 100-bar EMAs s

GBP/JPY remains capped a range despite the recent pullback.MACD teasing bulls, sustained trading above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement keep buyers hopeful.50% Fibonacci retracement adds to the supports.GBP/JPY pulls back from the session tops near 134.10 to 133.75 just as Tokyo opens for Friday’s trading. The pair stays between 200 and 100-bar EMAs so far during the week while it's sustained trading beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month’s drop and MACD conditions seem to favor the buyers. Even so, a sustained break of 200-bar EMA level of 134.80 becomes necessary for the bulls to aim for March 10 high surrounding 137.20. On the downside, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 133.10 and 100-bar EMA close to 132.85 could keep the sellers in check, if any. In a case where the quote slips below 132.85, 50% Fibonacci retracement near 131.40 and 130.60/50 can entertain the bears. GBP/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Sideways  

Early Friday, the market sees February month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following weak prints in December and January, markets are

Retail Sales overview Early Friday, the market sees February month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following weak prints in December and January, markets are expecting an increase of 0.4% in the key data versus -0.3% prior. It should also be noted that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has already released the preliminary figures based on 80% data, which strengthened the case for a 0.4% increase, during the last week. Although traders are more interested in coronavirus (COVID-19) updates off-late, any disappointment from the data might not refrain from exerting additional downside pressure on the Aussie pair. Analysts at Westpac don’t turn down the market forecasts while saying: The final update for Australia February retail trade is also due (11:30 am Syd/8:30 am Sing/HK), following the preliminary read of 0.4% (one of the surveys the ABS has started producing in two stages, due to the pandemic). Westpac expects a softer print of 0.2% in the final measure (from 0.4%), under the assumption that the preliminary survey was heavily skewed towards larger businesses such as supermarkets. Elsewhere, TD Securities seem following the trend as it says: Feb Retail Sales are expected to rise 0.3% m/m following weak prints for Dec and Jan (as Black Friday brought forward demand and bushfires weighed on activity). The ABS published preliminary data for Feb last week based on 80% of data received showing sales increased 0.4% m/m but we expect a slight softening into the tail end of the month on growing virus headlines. How could it affect AUD/USD? AUD/USD keeps bearing the burden of the US dollar strength amid the virus-led pessimism. While the recovery in figures is less likely to please the buyers and disappointment from the outcome could provide additional proofs of economic damages and hurt the Aussie pair as well. Technically, the pair’s break below 21-day SMA and sustained trading under the two-week-old rising trend line also favors the bears. However, 10-day SMA near 0.6020 and 0.6000 round-figure seem to provide a breathing space for the bears ahead of flashing fresh lows of the month. Alternatively, a 21-day SMA level of 0.6150, followed by the support-turned-resistance, currently at 0.6230, could keep the pair’s pullback moves in check. Key Notes AUD/USD stays on the slippery ground below 0.6100, ignores risk reset AUD/USD Forecast: Slowly grinding lower About Australian Retail Sales The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

GBP/USD remains modestly changed while taking rounds to 1.2395 amid the Asian session on Friday. In doing so, the pair continues to stay below a short

GBP/USD remains capped between 21-day SMA and 1.2485/95 region.61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the resistance.Sellers look for entry below 21-day SMA.GBP/USD remains modestly changed while taking rounds to 1.2395 amid the Asian session on Friday. In doing so, the pair continues to stay below a short-term horizontal resistance and 21-day SMA support. With RSI conditions also portraying the range-bound momentum, traders are less likely to be interested in the pair unless breaking 1.2495-1.2265 range. It should also be noted that 1.2500 round-figure and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month declines, at 1.2515, add to the upside barriers. On the contrary, pair’s declines below 21-day SMA level of 1.2265 could take rest around 1.2135/30 ahead of testing 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2090. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Sideways  
S&P says US 'AA+/A-1+' sovereign ratings affirmed; outlook remains stable.
Says stable outlook indicates s&p's view that negative & positive rating factors for the US will be balanced over next 2-years.
Says US ratings constrained by high general government debt & fiscal deficits, both likely to worsen this year after shock from coronavirus.
Says expect US economic recovery in 2021, which will partly compensate the loss of output this year, and continued Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth afterward.
Says expect continued political disputes about implementation of u.s economic & other policies in lead-up to national elections in November.
Says expect continuity in recent economic measures aimed at mitigating effects of pandemic, regardless of election outcome.
Says expect the general government deficit will decline below 5% of GDP by 2022.
Says expect US economy to contract around 1.3% this year before recovering by 3.2% in 2021 and 2.5% in following year.
Says expect US's institutional checks & balances, strong rule of law, to support stability & predictability of economic policies. More to come...

NZD/USD seesaws around 0.5920 during the Asian session on Friday. The pair earlier gained amid broad risk reset, mainly on expectations of a halt in o

NZD/USD stays mildly positive, extends the latest risk reset.Speculations over the Saudi-Russia pact, downbeat US data seem the latest catalysts.Virus numbers remain horrible, the search for the cure is on progress.Aussie Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI can direct the Kiwi pair amid a lack of New Zealand data.NZD/USD seesaws around 0.5920 during the Asian session on Friday. The pair earlier gained amid broad risk reset, mainly on expectations of a halt in oil’s carnage. Though, a lack of confirmation and prevalent coronavirus (COVID-19) pessimism keeps the kiwi traders look for additional catalysts. Despite being defied following the earlier tweet, US President Donald Trump reiterates that Saudi Arabia and Russia have talked to him and suggested a production cut to stabilize the energy markets. Also recently affecting the risk-tone could be the S&P’s stable outlook and affirmation of AA+ rating. The news earlier triggered the market’s risk-reset with the US 10-year Treasury yields bounding back beyond 0.61% from sub-0.58% while Wall Street benchmarks also flashed gains by the end of Thursday. Elsewhere, virus data continues to remain disappointing with global figures rising one million marks and more than 50,000 deaths. The US Jobless Claims strengthened the fears with a surge to over six million applications for employment benefits. Traders are currently searching for fresh clues amid a lack of major catalysts and hence may rely on Aussie Retail Sales and China’s Caixin Services PMI for intermediate direction. Even so, the major attention will be on virus headlines and the US economic calendar. Technical analysis Buyers will look for a clear break above the 21-day SMA level of 0.5985 to aim for 0.6000 and then challenge the weekly top surrounding 0.6065/70.  

The markets were buoyed by the sentiment of an oil production cut on Thursday in US markets following news that President Donald Trump said the world

The markets were buoyed by the sentiment of an oil production cut on Thursday in US markets following news that President Donald Trump said the world oil industry has been 'ravaged' this year and has plans to conduct meetings with industry executives later this week. The idea of tariffs on Gulf imports was floated. Subsequently, WTI spiked to the $27 handle overnight.   In recent trade, Trump has said that he hopes Russia, Saudi Arabia will reach deal to cut production by as many as 15 mln bpd soon. Additional comments Trump says all nursing home facilities should have separate areas for healthy and sick residents Trump says he anticipates issuing more defense production act orders in the future Says he spoke to gm ceo who said gm will be starting production of ventilators quickly Says he issued a defense production act order for 3m for facemasks Says he hopes Russia, Saudi Arabia will reach deal to cut production by as many as 15 mln bpd soon. Says guidelines on face coverings will be nationwide. Meanwhile, US Vice president pence says working on a proposal to compensate hospitals for the care of uninsured coronavirus patients. We also had White House adviser Navarro says that Trump will sign a defence production act order on Friday to prevent hoarding and the sending overseas of personal protective equipment.  

Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI dipped from previous 40.7 to 39.4 in March

Australia Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI dipped from previous 40.7 to 39.8 in March

Australia Commonwealth Bank Services PMI registered at 38.5, below expectations (39.8) in March

AUD/JPY remains mildly bid, up 0.18% to 65.50, amid the early Asian session on Friday. That said, the pair portrayed a bullish candlestick formation,

AUD/JPY charted a bullish candlestick formation on Thursday, holds onto recovery gains afterward.21-day SMA acts as the immediate upside barrier.A breakdown under 64.40 will defy the pattern and imply the bearish trend continuation.AUD/JPY remains mildly bid, up 0.18% to 65.50, amid the early Asian session on Friday. That said, the pair portrayed a bullish candlestick formation, a bullish hammer, on the daily (D1) chart on Thursday. In addition to the candlestick, MACD also flashes positive signals, which in turn pushes the pair nearer to a 21-day SMA level of 65.95. On a clear break beyond 65.95, also crossing 66.00, the buyers can aim for Tuesday’s top surrounding 67.30 whereas 67.70/80 comprising highs marked from March 12 could lure the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, a daily closing below Thursday’s low near 64.40 will defy the bullish candlestick formation and imply a continuation of the previous bearish trend suggesting gradual declines toward the sub-60.00 level. Though, 63.00 and 61.70 are likely intermediate rests that can be availed during the fresh downside. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

Early Friday morning in Asia, the UK’s Mirror came out with the news that the Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been forced to change the scheme meaning larg

Early Friday morning in Asia, the UK’s Mirror came out with the news that the Chancellor Rishi Sunak has been forced to change the scheme meaning larger firms with turnovers as high as £500 million to access support, while opening up the availability of state-backed cash to smaller companies. Key quotes The chancellor has been forced to overhaul his emergency aid scheme for small businesses amid warnings about a deluge of insolvencies as companies struggle to access funds. Sunak has dropped a key feature of the Business Interruption Loan Scheme meaning banks now longer have to assess whether SMEs are eligible for their other lending options. It is hoped it will mean money gets to business owners faster and with less personal risk involved. It comes after Business Secretary Alok Sharma this week warned banks it would be 'completely unacceptable' if they were found to be 'unfairly refusing funds to good business in financial difficulty', especially following the taxpayer-funded 2008 bailouts after the financial crash. FX implications The news failed to provide any major market reaction as traders are so far used to stimulus and have more interest in coronavirus (COVID-19) updates recently. That said, GBP/USD drops below 1.2400 after the news.

USD/JPY maintains the 107.80 to 108.10 range, established since the late-US session, while taking rounds to 107.85 amid the early Asian session on Fri

USD/JPY fails to hold onto the recent recovery gains, capped in a range.The broad US dollar strength ignored worrisome Jobless Claims, virus data.US President Trump’s tweets, concerning likely Saudi-Russia pact, triggered fresh risk-on.Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI will be the immediate catalyst, US data, COVID-19 will be important.USD/JPY maintains the 107.80 to 108.10 range, established since the late-US session, while taking rounds to 107.85 amid the early Asian session on Friday. The yen pair seems to await fresh clues to extend the previous risk-off amid the broad US dollar strength. Risk-on or risk-reset? Although US President Donald Trump’s tweet propelled the global market’s trade sentiment, the same were the latest defied by the Russian spokesperson. Additionally, the coronavirus (COVID-19) figures are also performing their routine duty to spread pessimism with infected cases crossing one million mark, as well as more than 50,000 deaths, across the globe. Also doubting the risk recovery is US Jobless Claims that marked another horrible outcome in millions, 6648K versus 3500K expected. Even so, the US 10-year treasury yields close Thursday while reversing most of the early-day losses to 0.61% whereas Wall Street benchmarks also marked gains over 1.5% each. Moving on, Japan’s Jibun Bank Services PMI for March, expected 32.7 versus 46.8 prior,  will be the immediate catalyst for the pair ahead of the US economic data. It’s worth mentioning that the March month jobs report might weigh a little less in importance than the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI this time. The reason could be the timing of the data collection compared to the virus outbreak in the US. Amid all this, updates concerning the disease as well as any signals for a cure, like the latest suggesting the second human trial of the vaccine in Spring, will be the key to watch. Technical analysis Not only a 200-day SMA level of 108.35 but a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMAs between 108.80 and 109.00 could also question the pair’s pullback.  

Australia AiG Performance of Construction Index declined to 37.9 in March from previous 42.7

The US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently provided additional details of the Federal payments to reduce the economic impact of the coronavirus

The US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin recently provided additional details of the Federal payments to reduce the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Key quotes First support payments to be direct depostied within two weeks. Social security recipients will get checks quickly after. More aid to come when Trump is ready. Does not believe House oversight committee is necessary. This doesn’t mean you’ll get your loan tomorrow, but the program will be up and running tomorrow. Energy companies, like all other companies, will be able to participate in broad based facilities, but not direct lending out of the Treasury. FX implications Global markets paid a little heed to the news that carried a less important, as per the current need, information.

AUD/USD steps back from the recent high of 0.6070 to 0.6055, defying its gradual recovery from Thursday’s low of near 0.6000, while entering the NFP-d

AUD/USD registers fourth day of losses, fails to extend the latest recovery from 0.6000.US President Trump’s tweet concerning the Saudi-Russia pact seemed to boost the market’s risk-tone.Coronavirus figures continue to flash red signals, a mild one from Italy, while US Jobless Claims were horrendous.Aussie Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI is in immediate focus, virus headlines to remain as the key.AUD/USD steps back from the recent high of 0.6070 to 0.6055, defying its gradual recovery from Thursday’s low of near 0.6000, while entering the NFP-day, Friday, for the Asian session. The pair seems to put a heavy emphasis on the US dollar strength while paying a little heed to the risk reset off-late. Data fails, rumors win… Despite witnessing a horrendous US Jobless Claims, 6648K versus 3500K forecasts and 3283K prior, global markets registered a pullback in risk-tone during the US session on Thursday. The reason could be traced to US President Donald Trump’s tweet suggesting a pact between the Saud Arabia and Russia to guard oil’s bloodbath. Though, the same was later denied by the Russian spokesman whereas Saudi Arabia also refrained from any confirmation but nobody cared. The latest on the calendar was Australia’s AiG Performance of Construction Index for March that crashed below 42.7 to 37.9 prior. Elsewhere, the coronavirus (COVID-19) figures keep flashing worrisome signals while crossing 1.0 million confirmed cases and more than 50,000 deaths globally. However, Spain seems to portray a receding risk for the last four days with the latest number being 4,668. Moreover, French PM Édouard Philippe said that the lockdown will probably be extended beyond April 15 whereas UK PM came to Downing Street’s doorstep to join “clap for cares”. The US 10-year treasury yields recovered from the early Thursday declines below 0.58% to 0.61% by the day’s close whereas Wall Street benchmarks also marked gains near 2.0% each. Although virus headlines are the king of price moves, Aussie Retail Sales for February and March month China Caixin Services PMI can decorate Friday’s economic calendar ahead of the key US data. It should also be noted that the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will gain higher attention than the usually important jobs report, the reason will be the timing of data collection. That said, Aussie Retail Sales may try to lure the buyers with 0.4% versus -0.3% earlier while Chinese data might also follow the footsteps of the latest activity data. However, nothing is likely to cause a major reversal in the Aussie pair, unless being drastically positive that is less expected, amid the present virus-infected pessimism. Technical analysis In addition to its failure in crossing 21-day SMA, a downside break below the two-week-old rising trend line also favors the bears. However, 10-day SMA near 0.6020 and 0.6000 round-figure seem to provide a breathing space for the bears ahead of flashing fresh lows of the month. Alternatively, a 21-day SMA level of 0.6150, followed by the support-turned-resistance, currently at 0.6230, could keep the pair’s pullback moves in check.  
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