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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Friday, January 18, 2019

The economic calendar shows a busy week ahead in the Eurozone. Events include the European Central Bank meeting and considerable economic reports. Ana

The economic calendar shows a busy week ahead in the Eurozone. Events include the European Central Bank meeting and considerable economic reports. Analysts at Danske Bank, expect no new policy signals at the ECB meeting and another weak PMI print for the regeion.Key Quotes: “After the recent ECB meeting where the Governing Council decided to end net asset purchases, new policy signals are not warranted at next week’s ECB meeting. We expect the debated growth risk assessment to take centre stage. At the last meeting, the ECB coined the growth risk assessment as broadly balanced but moving to the downside. Since then, we have seen a string of disappointing data. This is also visible in the surprise indicator, which points to lows around the sovereign debt crisis. We expect questions from the audience on liquidity operations but we expect no formal announcement until the March meeting.” “On Tuesday, we are due to get euro area and German ZEW figures. In both the euro area and Germany, the current situation index has been falling over the past three months and we expect this to continue in January, especially in light of the recent Brexit developments.” “On Thursday, we are also scheduled to get both German and euro area PMI. Euro area service and manufacturing PMIs fell in December to their lowest levels since 2016, fanned by the headwinds from weak Q3 data and new political risks in France. Furthermore, as we see ongoing weakness in China, as well as weak external demand and fragile risk sentiments in financial markets, we acknowledge downside risks for both euro area and German PMIs and we expect the euro area manufacturing PMI to fall to 50.7.” “On Friday, we also get German Ifo figures, where we also see downside risks.”

"For GBP bulls the fact that May remains in office is also reassuring because it means that she has not given way to a Brexiteer such as Gove or Johns

"For GBP bulls the fact that May remains in office is also reassuring because it means that she has not given way to a Brexiteer such as Gove or Johnson," note Rabobank analysts.Key quotes"May is considered less likely to allow the country to edge towards a hard Brexit. Investors have been taking comfort from the fact that there appears to be no real will for a hard Brexit. That said, May’s options are still painfully limited. She may be able to raise cross party support for a plan that would keep the UK within the customs unions, since the Labour party have already endorsed this plan." "This would solve the Northern Ireland border issue. However, hard-line Brexiteers in her own party see the ability to make independent trade deals as the jewel in the Brexit crown. Since this would be impossible if membership of the customs union was maintained, pursuing this route would risk splitting the Conservative party in two. Indeed, press reports already suggest that May has promised Brexiteers that she will not agree to keep the UK within the customs union." "Regarding the prospect of a second referendum, the fact that opinion polls have been indicting a widening bias in favour of ‘Remain’ has also been lending support to the pound. A YouGov poll conducted on January 16 suggested that the ‘Remain’ camp would win by a 12 ppt margin - the widest since the June 2016 referendum. That said it is unclear whether or not there would be parliamentary support for this option. Neither May or Corbyn are in favour and MPs whose constituents favoured ‘Leave’ in the 2016 referendum may not back another vote. Press reports have suggested that Corbyn could face resignations of up to a dozen front benchers if the party were to back a second referendum." 

AUD/USD daily chart AUD/USD is in a bear trend below the 200 SMA. AUD/USD is coiling near the 50 and 100 SMAs. AUD/USD 4-hour chart AUD/U

AUD/USD daily chartAUD/USD is in a bear trend below the 200 SMA.AUD/USD is coiling near the 50 and 100 SMAs.
AUD/USD 4-hour chartAUD/USD bulls are trading above the 100 and 200 SMAs.AUD/USD 30-minute chartAs bears are gaining momentum below the 200 SMA, a mild decline to the 0.7150 level is most likely on the cards.Additional key levels AUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7174
    Today Daily change: -0.0023 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.32%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7197
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7105
    Daily SMA50: 0.7184
    Daily SMA100: 0.7172
    Daily SMA200: 0.732
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7222
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7146
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7236
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7089
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7193
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7175
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7155
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7079
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7231
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7264
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7307  

"The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Friday. Key quotes

"The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.6% for 2018:Q4 and 2.2% for 2019:Q1," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Friday.Key quotes"News from this week's data releases increased the nowcast for both 2018:Q4 and 2019:Q1 by 0.1 percentage point." "Positive surprises from industrial production and capacity utilization data accounted for most of the increase. A negative surprise from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was partially offset by a positive surprise from the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey."

The XAU/USD pair started the last day of the week under pressure and extended its slide in the NA session to touch its lowest level in nine days at $1

Wall Street extends gains on latest headlines surrounding the U.S. - China trade conflict.10-year US T-bond yield pushes higher to support the greenback.US Dollar Index advances to 2-week highs above 96.30.The XAU/USD pair started the last day of the week under pressure and extended its slide in the NA session to touch its lowest level in nine days at $1281. As of writing, the troy ounce of the precious metal was trading at $1282, losing more than $9, or 0.72% on a daily basis. Earlier in the day, the positive market mood weighed on the traditional safe-havens such as the XAU. In the second half of the day, reports of China planning to offer a 6-year import boost of over $1 trillion to eliminate the trade imbalance with the U.S. allowed the risk appetite to stay strong toward the end of the week and helped major equity indexes in the U.S. to gain more than 1% on the day. Additionally, the improved sentiment also boosted the yields of the Treasury bond and caused the USD to outperform its rivals. With the 10-year T-bond yield gaining more than 1.5%, the US Dollar Index stays near its two-week high that it set 96.40 in the last hour. Today's data from the U.S. showed that the industrial production increased a little more than expected in December but the consumer confidence index deteriorated to its weakest level since Donald Trump became the president.Technical levels to considerXAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1282.64
    Today Daily change: -9.25 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.72%
    Today Daily Open: 1291.89
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1282.63
    Daily SMA50: 1251.02
    Daily SMA100: 1232.26
    Daily SMA200: 1228.87
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1295.45
    Previous Daily Low: 1288.95
    Previous Weekly High: 1297.15
    Previous Weekly Low: 1279.35
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1291.43
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1292.97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1288.74
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1285.6
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1282.24
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1295.24
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1298.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1301.74  

The EUR/USD pair dropped further during the US session and fell to 1.1353, the lowest intraday level since January 4. It extended weekly losses to mor

US dollar accelerates to the upside across the board on US data and optimism about US-China deal optimism. Euro drops versus Swiss franc and trims gains against pound. The EUR/USD pair dropped further during the US session and fell to 1.1353, the lowest intraday level since January 4. It extended weekly losses to more than a hundred pips.   The negative momentum remains strong as the euro trades around the lows. The common currency also turned lower against the Swiss franc and the pound.  The move to the downside took place amid a rally of the US dollar supported by positive expectations about a China-US trade deal. Another positive support for the greenback are US yields. The 10-year rose to 2.78%, the highest in 20 days.   Economic data released today showed mixed numbers. Industrial Production expanded 0.3% in December (above the 0.2% expected) while the preliminary reading of the US Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan surprised to the downside at 90.7 in January. Technical levels 
  EUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1358
    Today Daily change: -0.0033 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.29%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1391
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1429
    Daily SMA50: 1.1385
    Daily SMA100: 1.1465
    Daily SMA200: 1.1609
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1406
    Previous Daily Low: 1.137
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1571
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1396
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1384
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1393
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1372
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1353
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1426
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1445  

Oil daily chart Crude oil WTI is trading in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Bulls broke above 52.00 figure a

Oil daily chartCrude oil WTI is trading in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).Bulls broke above 52.00 figure and the 50 SMA.Oil 4-hour chartWTI is challenging the 54.00 figure as bulls are trading at the highest point since the start of 2019.
Oil 30-minute chartIf bulls break above 54.40 a continuation up to 56.00 figure is likely on the cards. On the flip side, if bears keep the market below 54.40 then investors can expect a pullback down to 53.00 figure.Additional key levelsWTI Overview:
    Today Last Price: 53.92
    Today Daily change: 142 pips
    Today Daily change %: 2.70%
    Today Daily Open: 52.5
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 48.8
    Daily SMA50: 50.96
    Daily SMA100: 59.86
    Daily SMA200: 64.2
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 52.89
    Previous Daily Low: 51.29
    Previous Weekly High: 53.57
    Previous Weekly Low: 48.33
    Previous Monthly High: 54.68
    Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 51.9
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 52.28
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 51.56
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 50.63
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 49.96
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 53.16
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 53.83
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 54.76  

"The holiday season didn't just bring presents to Canada - it brought upward price pressure to transportation and travel related components too," note

"The holiday season didn't just bring presents to Canada - it brought upward price pressure to transportation and travel related components too," note ING analysts and add: "This was enough pressure to offset the decline in gasoline prices and bring headline inflaiton back to the Bank of Canada's 2% target - for now."Key quotes"The consumer price index in December rose 2.0% and 0.2% on an annual and monthly basis respectively. This was above consensus expectation (1.7% YoY) – though most of the surprise was due to one-off factors related to the holiday season, with volatile components such as travel tours (6.6% YoY) and air transportation (21.7% MoM). " "The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) three main measures of core inflation sustained their 1.9% average. Although persistently weak wage growth is a downside risk to core inflation – it hasn’t yet made a material dent in consumer prices." "Headline inflation is back at the BoC’s 2% target and core inflation has remained stable near this level too, but we don’t see this pushing the central bank to hike rates any earlier than July. The next hiking opportunity would probably be in April when a new monetary policy report is published, but we think a third quarter hike is more likely, as it allows the BoC to wait for confirmation that the Fed is still in hiking mode."

According to Bloomberg, China is reportedly planning to offer a path to eliminate the trade imbalance with the United States. China is reportedly plan

According to Bloomberg, China wants to offer a path to eliminate the trade imbalance with the United States. China is reportedly planning to offer a  6-year import boost of over $1 trillion. On the other hand, trade negotiators are said to be sceptical of China's offer as they aim to have a faster reduction in the trade gap.

The GBP/USD came under a renewed selling pressure in the NA session and slumped to a fresh session low of 1.2899. As of writing, the pair was trading

US Dollar Index advances above 96.20 area in the NA session.US 10-year T-bond yield advances to multi-week highs on Friday.Disappointing data from the UK weighs on the GBP.The GBP/USD came under a renewed selling pressure in the NA session and slumped to a fresh session low of 1.2899. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.2919, losing 0.53% on a daily basis. Earlier today, the disappointing retail sales data, which showed a monthly decline of 0.9% in December, weighed on the British pound and forced its to erase the majority of the gains that it recorded in the last couple of days.  In the second half of the day, the greenback started to gather strength against its rivals despite mixed macroeconomic data releases and forced the pair to continue to push lower. Today's data from the U.S. showed that industrial production increased more than expected in December but the UoM's Consumer Confidence Index slumped to its lowest level since Donald Trump took the office at 90.7. Despite this data, a sharp increase witnessed in the U.S. T-bond yields helped the greenback preserve its momentum. As of writing, the DXY was up 0.17% on the day at 96.25 and the 10-year T-bond yield was at its highest level since late December at 2.772%, adding 0.9% on the day. There won't be any other macroeconomic data releases from the U.S. in the remainder of the day. On the other hand, British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to hold meetings with the cabinet ministers to discuss Brexit.Technical levels to considerGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2919
    Today Daily change: -68 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.531%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2988
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.275
    Daily SMA50: 1.2752
    Daily SMA100: 1.2892
    Daily SMA200: 1.3099
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3002
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2832
    Previous Weekly High: 1.2866
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2704
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2937
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2897
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.288
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2771
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.271
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3049
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.311
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3219  

S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 is in a deep pullback below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). S&P500 4-hour chart The bulls b

S&P500 daily chartThe S&P500 is in a deep pullback below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).S&P500 4-hour chartThe bulls broke above the main SMAs and the 2,600.00 figure.S&P500 30-minute chartAs bulls are trying to break above the 2,650.00 level a continuation to the 2,700.00 figure is now on the cards.Support can be seen at the 2,600.00 figure.Additional key levelsSP 500 Overview:
    Today Last Price: 2651.5
    Today Daily change: 1350 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.512%
    Today Daily Open: 2638
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 2518.84
    Daily SMA50: 2618.65
    Daily SMA100: 2724.61
    Daily SMA200: 2751.8
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 2645.25
    Previous Daily Low: 2596.25
    Previous Weekly High: 2598.75
    Previous Weekly Low: 2523.5
    Previous Monthly High: 2813.5
    Previous Monthly Low: 2340.25
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2626.53
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2614.97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 2607.75
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 2577.5
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 2558.75
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 2656.75
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 2675.5
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 2705.75  

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, is now adding to earlier gains and is testing once agains the 96.20/30 band in spite of the poor relea

The index keeps intact the firm note above the 96.00 handle.US Industrial/Manufacturing Production surprised to the upside.U-Mich index disappointed at 90.7 for the month of January.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, is now adding to earlier gains and is testing once agains the 96.20/30 band in spite of the poor release of the U-Mich index.US Dollar Index keeps the bid toneThe index managed to clinch fresh tops in the 96.20/25 band following auspicious results from US Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Capacity Utilization, all coming in above estimates. However, the preliminary print of US Consumer Sentiment tracked by the U-Mich index surprised to the downside at 90.7 for the current month. Earlier in the session, FOMC’s Williams stressed the ongoing shutdown would have implications on Q1 growth, expecting growth to pick up once shutdown is solved. Williams also said that policy on the balance sheet could be reassessed in case conditions change.What to look for around USDThe ongoing context of marginal volatility and lack of catalysts leaves the scenario unchanged for the greenback in the very near term. That said, the prospects of a ‘no-hike’ by the Federal Reserve this year coupled with speculations of a slowdown in the US economy remain the centre of attention among investors. In addition, the US partial shutdown is entering its fourth consecutive week and could start weighing on sentiment, while cautiousness remains high around the US-China trade talks.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is up 0.16% at 96.23 and a break above 96.26 (high Jan.17) would target 96.60 (55-day SMA) en route to 96.96 (2019 high Jan.2). On the downside, the next support arises at 95.77 (10-day SMA) seconded by 95.03 (2019 low Jan.3) and finally 95.04 (200-day SMA).

"Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected," the University of Michigan said on Friday. Key takeaways

"Consumer sentiment declined in early January to its lowest level since Trump was elected," the University of Michigan said on Friday.Key takeaways from the press releaseThe decline was primarily focused on prospects for the domestic economy, with the year-ahead outlook for the national economy judged the worst since mid 2014. The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies. While the January falloff in optimism is certainly consistent with a slowdown in the pace of growth, it does not yet indicate the start of a sustained downturn in economic activity. Consumers now sense a need to buttress their precautionary savings, which is typically done by reducing their discretionary spending. Evolving job and wage prospects, which were slightly weaker in early January, are critical to extending the current expansion.January (preliminary) resultsIndex of Consumer Sentiment at 90.7 vs 98.3 in December. Index of Current Economic Conditions at 110 vs 116.1 in December. Index of Consumer Expectations at 78.3 vs 87 in December.

Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 6.5% to 10.8% in November

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index registered at 90.7, below expectations (97) in January

Colombia Industrial ouput (YoY): 4.7% (November) vs previous 5.8%

Major equity indexes started the last day of the week with strong gains amid optimism surrounding the U.S. - China trade talks and a strong recovery w

Major equity indexes started the last day of the week with strong gains amid optimism surrounding the U.S. - China trade talks and a strong recovery witnessed in crude oil prices. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both adding 0.5% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.4%. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, trade-sensitive materials and industrial sectors both gain a little less than 1% in the early trade while energy is rising 0.8%. Today's data from the U.S. also showed a higher-than-expected increase in industrial production in December to provide an additional boost to these sectors. The only sector that stays flat on the day is financials. In addition to hopes of China and the U.S. reaching a trade deal, additional measure from China to boost the economic growth helped the market sentiment improve on Friday and allowed crude oil prices to stage a decisive recovery. Meanwhile, German Economy Minister earlier in the day stated that the EU - U.S. trade talks would bring down trade barriers and build new transatlantic trade ties.

After an unsuccessful bullish attempt to the 1.1410 area, EUR/USD has now come under some selling pressure and it has returned to the 1.1400/1.1390 re

The pair’s bull run faltered once again in the low-1.1400s.DXY clings to gains above 96.00 post-positive US data.US Industrial Production expanded more than expected in November.After an unsuccessful bullish attempt to the 1.1410 area, EUR/USD has now come under some selling pressure and it has returned to the 1.1400/1.1390 region.EUR/USD offered on US dataThe now better note around the buck is forcing the pair to shed further ground and drop to fresh daily lows near 1.1380, coincident with the key 55-day SMA. The greenback picked up extra pace after Industrial Production expanded at a monthly 0.3% during November, surpassing initial estimates. Further auspicious data saw Manufacturing Production also expanding more than expected 1.1% MoM and Capacity Utilization ticking higher to 78.7% in December. Later in the session, the preliminary gauge of US Consumer Sentiment for the month of January is also due.What to look for around EUR/USDProspects of gains around EUR have been undermined by the dovish message from ECB’s Draghi earlier in the week pari passu with the continuation of the upside momentum in the buck. In the meantime, investors should remain focused on the ongoing slowdown in the euro area as well as upcoming issues such as the EU Parliamentary elections in May (populism could gain further presence), social unease in France (the ‘yellow-vest’ issue remains largely unresolved), omnipresence political effervescence in Italy and the likeliness that a technical recession in Germany in H2 2018.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.07% at 1.1387 facing the next down barrier at 1.1370 (low Jan.17) seconded by 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1306 (2019 low Jan.3). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1422 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1442 (38.2% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1465 (100-day SMA).

EUR/GBP daily chart EUR/GBP is trading in a sideways trend below the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). EUR/GBP 4-hour chart

EUR/GBP daily chartEUR/GBP is trading in a sideways trend below the 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).EUR/GBP 4-hour chartEUR/GBP is trading below its main SMAs as bulls recapture the 0.8800 figure.EUR/GBP 30-minute chartAs bulls regained the 50 SMA the next target is likely near the 0.8840 resistance.  Support is seen at the 0.8760 level. Additional key levelsEUR/GBP Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.8811
    Today Daily change: 40 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.468%
    Today Daily Open: 0.877
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.8965
    Daily SMA50: 0.8929
    Daily SMA100: 0.8894
    Daily SMA200: 0.8865
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.8874
    Previous Daily Low: 0.8764
    Previous Weekly High: 0.9062
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.8923
    Previous Monthly High: 0.9089
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.8863
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.8806
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.8831
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8732
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8692
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8622
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8842
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8913
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.8952  

   •  The pair tumbled around 50-pips in a knee-jerk reaction to hotter-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, albeit managed to defend we

   •  The pair tumbled around 50-pips in a knee-jerk reaction to hotter-than-expected Canadian consumer inflation figures, albeit managed to defend weekly lows.    •  However, the fact that the pair is now trading below important intraday moving averages - 50, 100 & 200-hour SMA, suggests reemergence of near-term bearish pressure.USD/CAD 1-hourly chart    •  Technical indicators on hourly charts have been gaining negative momentum and remain in the bearish territory on the daily chart, adding credence to the negative outlook.   •  Hence, a follow-through weakness, even below weekly lows support and the 1.3200 handle, towards challenging 100-day SMA strong support, now looks a distinct possibility.USD/CAD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3257
    Today Daily change: -16 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.128%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3274
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3464
    Daily SMA50: 1.3367
    Daily SMA100: 1.32
    Daily SMA200: 1.3097
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.332
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3248
    Previous Weekly High: 1.339
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.318
    Previous Monthly High: 1.4134
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.316
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3293
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3276
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3242
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3209
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.317
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3314
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3353
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3386  

The Russian currency is extending its upbeat tone so far this week and is now forcing USD/RUB to trade in new YTD lows in the vicinity of 66.00 the fi

RUB gains extra ground and drags spot to fresh yearly lows.Brent advance sustains the up move in the Russian currency.Russian trade surplus came in at nearly $19 billion in November.The Russian currency is extending its upbeat tone so far this week and is now forcing USD/RUB to trade in new YTD lows in the vicinity of 66.00 the figure.USD/RUB up on Brent moveSpot is trading on the defensive for the third consecutive week so far following the rejection from late-December peaks in the 70.00 neighbourhood, leaving behind the 10-day SMA and the 100-day SMA at 66.72 and 66.69, respectively. RUB is deriving extra support from the up move in crude oil prices, lifting the barrel of European reference Brent crude to levels close to the $62.00 mark, or gaining more than 1% for the day. In the US data space, US Industrial Production expanded more than expected 0.3% MoM in November, while the preliminary print of the Consumer Sentiment for the current month is due later. Earlier in the session, Russian trade surplus shrunk a tad to $18.98 billion during November.USD/RUB levels to watchAt the moment the pair is losing 0.12% at 66.30 and a break below 66.16 (2019 low Jan.18) would aim for 67.78 (200-day SMA0 and finally 65.43 (low Nov.22 2018). On the flip side, the initial hurdle aligns at 66.72 (10-day SMA) followed by 67.18 (55-day SMA) and then 69.94 (high Dec.29 2018).

Additional comments from NY Fed President John Williams continue to cross the wires with key quotes found below. Good data is how we make our decis

Additional comments from NY Fed President John Williams continue to cross the wires with key quotes found below. Good data is how we make our decisions and we don’t have some data due to shutdown. Will see rebound in GDP after shutdown ends. Shutdown could affect consumer spending, take half a percent or a percent off GDP growth. Shutdown does have significant impact on Q1 growth  Uncertainty in the economy has risen dramatically.

"Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November," the Fed reported on Friday. Key takeaways from the pr

"Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in December after rising 0.4 percent in November," the Fed reported on Friday.Key takeaways from the press releaseFor the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 3.8 percent. In December, manufacturing output increased 1.1 percent, its largest gain since February 2018. The output of mines rose 1.5 percent, but the index for utilities fell 6.3 percent, as warmer-than-usual temperatures lowered the demand for heating. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 0.1 percentage point in December to 78.7 percent.

United States Capacity Utilization came in at 78.7%, above forecasts (78.5%) in December

United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in December

NY Fed President John Williams was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that he doesn't see worrying signs of inflation pressure and the Fe

NY Fed President John Williams was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that he doesn't see worrying signs of inflation pressure and the Fed needs prudence, patience and good judgment. Williams foresees US GDP growth to be around 2.0-2.5% in 2019 vs 3.0% in 2018 amid emerging headwinds like the partial US government shutdown and geopolitical uncertainty.  Labor market remains strong and high growth would warrant somewhat higher rates, though is now closer to normal. Williams doesn't see worrying signs of inflation pressure but said that motto of data dependence more relevant than ever.

According to Reuters, the Bank of Italy has cut its 2019 GDP growth expectation to 0.6% from 1% in December's report.  Key takeaways Economy proba

According to Reuters, the Bank of Italy has cut its 2019 GDP growth expectation to 0.6% from 1% in December's report. Key takeawaysEconomy probably contracted in Q4 2018 for second straight quarter. Gross NPL ratio for Italian banks under ECB supervision fell to 9.4% in Q3 2018 from 9.7% in Q2.

After rising sharply in the late NA session on Thursday amid optimistic headlines surrounding the U.S. - China trade conflict, the AUD/USD pair strugg

US Dollar Index stays comatose above 96.Improved sentiment helps the AUD gather strength.After rising sharply in the late NA session on Thursday amid optimistic headlines surrounding the U.S. - China trade conflict, the AUD/USD pair struggled to extend its rally above the 0.72 handle and moved into the negative territory before recovering its daily losses. As of writing, the pair was flat on the day at 0.7192. The Wall Street Journal on Thursday reported that the U.S. officials were weighing the option of lifting tariffs on Chinese imports to calm the markets and give China a reason for further concessions in trade negotiations. Although these claims were quickly denied by the U.S. Treasury, markets remain hopeful that the trade conflict could come to an end.  Later in the day, industrial production, capacity utilization and consumer confidence data from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Ahead of the data, the US Dollar Index stays in its extremely tight 2-day old trading range above the 96 mark. On the other hand, when investors return at the Asia opening on Monday, fourth quarter GDP data from China will be watched closely. Previewing the data, "the consensus estimate of 6.4% year-on-year GDP growth is barely a slowdown from 6.5% in the previous quarter despite all the hue and cry that weighed down global markets in the last quarter. However, a sharp deceleration in manufacturing and retail sales as well as in trade growth, and falling industrial profits signal a downside risk to the consensus GDP estimate. Our house forecast is 6.3%,” ING analysts said in a recently published report.China Q4 2018 GDP Preview: Major Banks expectations.Technical levels to considerWith a weekly close above 0.7200 (psychological level), the pair could target 0.7235 (Jan. 11 high) on the upside ahead of 0.7265 (Dec. 6, 2018, high). Supports, on the other hand, are located at 0.7170 (50-DMA), 0.7120 (20-DMA) and 0.7035 (Dec. 21, 2018, low).

USD/JPY daily chart USD/JPY is trading in a deep pullback below the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs). USD/JPY 4-hour chart

USD/JPY daily chartUSD/JPY is trading in a deep pullback below the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs).USD/JPY 4-hour chartThe market is currently trading above the 50 and 100 SMA. USD/JPY 30-minute chartBears are likely to drive the market to 109.00 figure as 109.70 is seen as resistance.   Additional key levelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 109.39
    Today Daily change: 15 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.137%
    Today Daily Open: 109.24
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.33
    Daily SMA50: 111.62
    Daily SMA100: 112.07
    Daily SMA200: 111.18
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 109.41
    Previous Daily Low: 108.68
    Previous Weekly High: 109.09
    Previous Weekly Low: 107.77
    Previous Monthly High: 113.83
    Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.13
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 108.96
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 108.81
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 108.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 108.08
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.54
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.84
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.27  

Sacha Tihanyi, deputy head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, points out that the Chinese data continues to decelerate rapidly, and they d

Sacha Tihanyi, deputy head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities, points out that the Chinese data continues to decelerate rapidly, and they do not expect a near term change in this dynamic as global and EM growth continues to come under pressure.Key Quotes“This may increasingly generate pressure and expectation for an aggressive shift in the monetary and fiscal policy reaction functions, which could be problematic for CNY.” “This is not our base case and we expect that while the policy response is shifting more proactively, it will remain nuanced and targeted.” “Acknowledging the negative impact of the recently re-priced Fed outlook and government shutdown on the USD, we have also revised our USDCNY forecast lower, but see near term upside risks from here.”    

   •  Hotter than expected Canadian CPI figures lift the domestic currency.    •  Goodish pickup in oil prices provides an additional boost to the Lo

   •  Hotter than expected Canadian CPI figures lift the domestic currency.
   •  Goodish pickup in oil prices provides an additional boost to the Loonie.
   •  The USD remains on the defensive and does little to lend any support.
The USD/CAD pair quickly reversed an uptick to 1.3280 area and tumbled around 50-pips in reaction to the latest Canadian inflation figures. Data released on Friday showed Canadian headline CPI declined less than expected, 0.1% m/m in December, with the yearly rate unexpectedly rising to the official target of 2%.  The against the backdrop of goodish up-move in crude oil prices provided a strong lift to the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and prompted some aggressive selling in the last hour. Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar price action did little to lend any support and stall the pair's sudden decline to an intraday low level of 1.3231, back closer to weekly lows set on Tuesday. It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to find any decent buying interest at lower levels or bears regain control amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US.
 
Technical levels to watchUSD/CAD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3248
    Today Daily change: -25 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.196%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3274
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3464
    Daily SMA50: 1.3367
    Daily SMA100: 1.32
    Daily SMA200: 1.3097
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.332
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3248
    Previous Weekly High: 1.339
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.318
    Previous Monthly High: 1.4134
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.316
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3293
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3276
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3242
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3209
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.317
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3314
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3353
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3386

"Foreign investors acquired $9.5 billion of Canadian securities in November, mainly bonds," Statistics Canada announced on Friday. Key takeaways from

"Foreign investors acquired $9.5 billion of Canadian securities in November, mainly bonds," Statistics Canada announced on Friday.Key takeaways from the press releaseCanadian investors reduced their holdings of foreign securities by $4.1 billion as they sold US shares. The divestment in foreign securities was the largest in a year and followed two strong months of acquisitions. As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds of $13.5 billion in the Canadian economy in November, the largest inflow since November 2017.

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 1.7% increase in November," Statistics Canada reported on

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 1.7% increase in November," Statistics Canada reported on Friday.Key takeaways from the press releaseLower energy prices were offset by higher prices for various services, including air transportation, telephone services and travel tours. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% in December. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.2% in December, following a 0.1% decline in November.  Meanwhile, the core CPI released by the Bank of Canada stayed unchanged at -0.2% on a monthly basis in December to lift the annual change to 1.7% from 1.5% in November. 

   •  Having failed to make it through a four-month-old descending trend-line hurdle, the pair witnessed some profit-taking and the downfall accelerat

   •  Having failed to make it through a four-month-old descending trend-line hurdle, the pair witnessed some profit-taking and the downfall accelerated after dismal UK retail sales data.GBP/USD daily chart   •  The intraday corrective slide seems to have found some support ahead of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of this week's 1.2668 to 1.3000 strong upsurge amid a subdued USD action.   •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have slipped below the mid-point but continue to hold in the bullish territory on 4-hourly/daily chart, suggesting some dip-buying interest.1-hourly chart   •  Hence, any subsequent fall below the mentioned support near the 1.2925 area might be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to be limited by 100-hour SMA support.GBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2938
    Today Daily change: -49 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.385%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2988
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.275
    Daily SMA50: 1.2752
    Daily SMA100: 1.2892
    Daily SMA200: 1.3099
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3002
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2832
    Previous Weekly High: 1.2866
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2704
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2937
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2897
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.288
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2771
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.271
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3049
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.311
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3219  

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) increased to 0.2% in December from previous 0.1%

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-0.4%) in December: Actual (-0.1%)

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) increased to 1.7% in December from previous 1.5%

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM): -0.2% (December)

Canada Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities climbed from previous $3.98B to $9.45B in November

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2%, above expectations (1.7%) in December

Canada Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities fell from previous $14.93B to $-4.09B in November

The USD/JPY pair continued to push higher after breaking above the 109 mark and touched its highest level in more than two weeks at 109.60. As investo

Trade optimism boosts the risk appetite on Friday.US Dollar Index stays in consolidation channel above 96.Coming up: Industrial production and UoM consumer confidence data.The USD/JPY pair continued to push higher after breaking above the 109 mark and touched its highest level in more than two weeks at 109.60. As investors are waiting for the Wall Street opening bell, the pair consolidates its gains in the upper-half of its daily range. As of writing, The pair was up 0.2% on the day at 109.45. Hopes of the U.S. and China reaching a trade agreement and ending the conflict that hurt the global economy helped the market sentiment improve on the last day of the week and major European equity indexes rose sharply. At the moment, Germany's DAX is adding nearly 2% and the UK's FTSE is gaining around 1.7% on the day. Additionally, the S&P 500 Futures is up 0.5% to point to a positive start in Wall Street, which could make it difficult for safe-havens to find demand in the second half of the day. Later in the session, the Fed will publish the industrial production and capacity utilization data and the University of Michigan will release its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey. Ahead of these data, the US Dollar Index stays virtually unchanged on the day above the 96 mark.Technical levels to considerWith today's modest advance, the RSI indicator on the daily chart rose to 50 area, suggesting that buyers are looking to take control of the price action. On the upside, the pair could face the first resistance at 109.60 (daily high) ahead of 110 (psychological level) and 110.50 (Dec. 31 high). Supports, on the other hand, align at 108.90 (20-DMA), 108.40 (Jan. 16 low) and 107.75. (Jan. 10 low).  

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Norges Bank to leave policy unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Key Quotes “The focal point for risk is w

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Norges Bank to leave policy unchanged in its upcoming meeting.Key Quotes“The focal point for risk is whether their messaging continues to point to a March hike. We think so as the domestic economy remains healthy and external risks have not deteriorated significantly since their December meeting.” “Despite this, we think EURNOK's ability to decline further may be constrained in light of its recent move. Indeed, we see some risks of a "sell-the-fact" reaction once the event is out of the way as global risk appetite remains fragile.”

Martin Enlund, chief FX strategist at Nordea Markets, points out that the coming week starts off with a raft of Chinese statistics, which will be more

Martin Enlund, chief FX strategist at Nordea Markets, points out that the coming week starts off with a raft of Chinese statistics, which will be more interesting than usual given the market’s focus on the Chinese slowdown.Key Quotes“Retail sales, industrial production as well as GDP are all due on Monday. We note that it’s not always the case that M1 growth leads to GDP growth, as evidenced by the past few years. Maybe we’ve reached peak China worries, near-term?” “Euro-area sentiment indicators will receive even more attention, starting with Germany’s ZEW expectations on Tuesday and French business confidence on Wednesday.” “Euro-area preliminary PMI figures are due on Thursday, here we expect some modest and further deterioration. Thursday also brings rate decisions from Norges Bank (which will likely be a non-event – no new rate path, and an outlook not substantially changed), as well as a decision by the ECB. We think the ECB is set to formally become somewhat more gloomy.” “While there are a few of US data releases planned for the week, large amounts of data are being held back by the ongoing shutdown of the Federal government. If the government re-opens, a raft of data releases may come during the week (including a likely robust retail sales figure for December). President Trump’s approval rate has recently declined, which may add pressure on him to reach a deal with the Democrats to reopen the government. However, his approval rates are still higher than in 2017, and the next election isn’t until 2020, so he might not be in a hurry.”“As for the UK, the market is awaiting the government’s “plan B” for Brexit, which must be delivered no later than Monday 21 January – a plan which may then be voted on Tuesday 29 January. A request to postpone the 29 March deadline is likely, possibly until summer – or beyond.”  

Russia Foreign Trade fell from previous $19.697B to $18.984B in November

Canadian CPI Overview Friday's economic docket highlights the release of Canadian consumer inflation figures for the month of December, scheduled to

Canadian CPI OverviewFriday's economic docket highlights the release of Canadian consumer inflation figures for the month of December, scheduled to be published at 1330 GMT. The headline CPI is anticipated to have dropped 0.4% m/m in December and the yearly rate is seen holding steady at 1.7%, missing the official target of 2%. According to Analysts at TD Securities: “Energy prices will exert a heavy drag with gasoline prices down another 7% on the month, although a large base effect and stronger core (ex. food & energy) prices will help keep inflation stable.”Deviation impact on USD/CADReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction on the pair is likely to be around 26-pips during the first 15-minutes and could get extended to 45-pips in the following 4-hours in case of a relative deviation of -1.02.How could it affect USD/CAD?Ahead of the important release, the pair was seen trading with a mild negative bias just above mid-1.3200s and a follow-through selling, led by hotter than expected inflation figures, could pave the way for a retest of 100-day SMA support near the 1.3185 region. Alternatively, a weaker reading might inspire bulls to retake the 1.3300 handle and aim towards challenging 50-day SMA support break-point, now turned strong hurdle near the 1.3340 region.Key Notes   •  Canada’s inflation Preview: Inflation data unalter the outlook for ongoing policy tightening towards neutral    •  USD/CAD flirting with daily lows, just above mid-1.3200s ahead of Canadian CPI    •  USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Firming up support for a run at 1.3300About BoC's Core CPIConsumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.

   •  Disappointing UK monthly retail sales data prompt some long-unwinding trade.    •  Subdued USD price action seemed to help limit any deeper sli

   •  Disappointing UK monthly retail sales data prompt some long-unwinding trade.
   •  Subdued USD price action seemed to help limit any deeper slide, at least for now.
The GBP/USD pair remained under some selling pressure through the mid-European session and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 1.2930-40 region.  After yesterday's strong upsurge to the key 1.30 psychological mark, the highest since mid-November, the pair lost some ground and was further weighed down by the disappointing release of UK monthly retail sales data.  With plenty of Brexit uncertainties still on the table, the dismal UK macro data prompted traders to lighten their bets, especially after a strong upsurge of over 300-pips from Tuesday's swing lows near the 1.2670-65 region. The downside, however, remained cushioned expectations for an extension of Article 50, despite repeated denials by the UK government, and the market stance of a diminishing hard Brexit risk.  This coupled with a subdued US Dollar price action and absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US might further collaborate towards limiting any meaningful downfall, at least for the time being.Technical levels to watchAny subsequent slide is likely to find strong support near 100-day SMA, around the 1.2900 region, below which a fresh bout of technical selling might drag the pair further towards the 1.2865-55 horizontal support.  On the flip side, the 1.2990-1.3000 region might continue to act as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared should continue boosting the pair further towards 1.3070 intermediate resistance en-route the 1.3100 handle.
 

Prices of the barrel of American reference for the sweet light crude oil are trading on a firm note and are approaching the key $53.00 handle, recordi

Crude oil prices keep the trade near yearly tops.Prices remain supported by OPEC+ output cuts.Driller Baker Hughes will publish weekly oil rig count later.Prices of the barrel of American reference for the sweet light crude oil are trading on a firm note and are approaching the key $53.00 handle, recording at the same time new multi-day highs.WTI up ahead of US dataWTI inches to 5-day tops in the $52.80 region per barrel today and is reverting yesterday’s pullback to sub-$51.00 levels, where some decent support emerged. Prices of the West Texas Intermediate appear to have left behind the recent re-emergence of oversupply gluts, while the OPEC+ deal to curb production, disruptions in Venezuela and Libya and US sanctions against Iranian oil exports keep underpinning what it seems to be the beginning of a fresh bull market in oil. Looking ahead, Baker Hughes will release its weekly report on the US drilling activity.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is up 0.87% at $52.62 facing the next resistance at $53.22 (2019 high Jan.11) seconded by $54.48 (monthly high Dec.4) and finally $58.00 (high Nov.18 2018). On the downside, a break below $51.40 (10-day SMA) would aim for $50.34 (low Jan.14) and then $48.49 (21-day SMA).

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Canada’s headline CPI to hold at 1.7% y/y in December with prices down 0.4% on the month, in line with marke

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Canada’s headline CPI to hold at 1.7% y/y in December with prices down 0.4% on the month, in line with market expectations.Key Quotes“Energy prices will exert a heavy drag with gasoline prices down another 7% on the month, although a large base effect and stronger core (ex. food & energy) prices will help keep inflation stable.”

According to Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, doubts about the BoC’s commitment to further policy normalisation continue to percol

According to Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, doubts about the BoC’s commitment to further policy normalisation continue to percolate but only a very bare +12bp in BoC hikes are now priced over their next six meetings to September 2019.Key Quotes“Its a material decline from two months ago when rates markets discounted +70bp in BoC hikes over the same period.” “USD/CAD has declined sharply in the new year pricing in some of the aforementioned positives but suspect it has further to run in H1, a test of key lows just below 1.28 (Oct 2018) on the cards. Recommended selling EUR/CAD earlier this week.”

   •  Having repeatedly failed to make it through the $1295 supply zone, renewed US-China trade optimism prompted some fresh selling and dragged the p

   •  Having repeatedly failed to make it through the $1295 supply zone, renewed US-China trade optimism prompted some fresh selling and dragged the precious metal to over one-week lows.   •  A sustained weakness below 200-hour SMA was seen as a key trigger for intraday bearish traders, with the commodity finally breaking through over one-week-old trading range.    •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have moved on the verge of breaking into oversold territory and seemed to be the only factor holding traders from placing aggressive bets.   •  However, given the bearish breakdown, negative oscillators on the 4-hourly chart support prospect for an extension of the ongoing downfall back towards testing $1280 level.   •  Meanwhile, bullish indicators on the daily chart suggest some dip-buying interest at lower levels and should help any subsequent downfall amid dovish Fed expectations.Gold 1-hourly chartXAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1285.77
    Today Daily change: -612 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.474%
    Today Daily Open: 1291.89
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1282.63
    Daily SMA50: 1251.02
    Daily SMA100: 1232.26
    Daily SMA200: 1228.87
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1295.45
    Previous Daily Low: 1288.95
    Previous Weekly High: 1297.15
    Previous Weekly Low: 1279.35
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1291.43
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1292.97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1288.74
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1285.6
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1282.24
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1295.24
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1298.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1301.74  

Analysts at TD Securities point out that UK’s December retail sales came in largely as expected, falling 0.9% m/m, leaving three of the last four mont

Analysts at TD Securities point out that UK’s December retail sales came in largely as expected, falling 0.9% m/m, leaving three of the last four months in negative territory.Key Quotes“On a sectoral basis, fuel and food contributed slightly to gains in the month, while non-food stores and non-store retailing both fell by 2.3% m/m. December's decline comes after a strong 1.3% monthly gain in November on the back of Black Friday sales, and repeats the pattern seen last year, suggesting that the ONS is still struggling to seasonally adjust this relatively new phenomenon.”

Tim Riddell, senior market strategist at Westpac, suggests that in the UK, parliamentary opposition to a “no-deal” Brexit has reduced extreme downside

Tim Riddell, senior market strategist at Westpac, suggests that in the UK, parliamentary opposition to a “no-deal” Brexit has reduced extreme downside risks for GBPKey Quotes“There are still a variety of potential permutations, but Parliamentary opposition to a “no-deal” Brexit has reduced that risk and also reduces extreme downside risks for GBP. Nevertheless, data are now showing the impact of uncertainty on activity. Inflation is now more benign and BoE policy should be stable until there is some form of Brexit clarity.” “GBP is likely to be capped in the low 1.30’s with bias for a further slide into the 1.25-1.27 area until potential new plans can be fleshed out.”

According to analysts at TD Securities, US industrial production is expected to moderate in December, with TD looking for growth to slow to 0.1% on a

According to analysts at TD Securities, US industrial production is expected to moderate in December, with TD looking for growth to slow to 0.1% on a pullback in utilities, offsetting a 0.2% increase in manufacturing production (market: 0.2%, 0.3%).Key Quotes“Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment for January will be released at 10:00 ET, with the market calling for a modest decline to 96.8.” “The NY Fed's Williams will speak on the economic outlook at 9:05 ET, which will be followed by an audience Q&A and an 11:00 ET speech from the Philadelphia Fed's Harker.”

   •  The USD remains on the defensive amid renewed US-China trade optimism.    •  A goodish pickup in oil prices underpin Loonie and add to the sell

   •  The USD remains on the defensive amid renewed US-China trade optimism.
   •  A goodish pickup in oil prices underpin Loonie and add to the selling bias.
   •  Today’s key focus will be on the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures.
The USD/CAD pair extended the overnight late pull-back from over one-week tops and traded with a negative bias through the mid-European session. Having spiked to an intraday high level of 1.3319 on Thursday, the pair started losing steam following the WSJ report that the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is in favour of easing tariffs on Chinese imports.  As investors wait for more progress on the US-China trade talks, the US Dollar held on the defensive on the last trading day of the week and was seen as one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure. A possible relaxation of the US tariffs on China also improved the outlook for global oil demand and was evident from a goodish up-move in crude oil prices on Friday, which further underpinned the commodity-linked Loonie.  Adding to this, Thursday's OPEC monthly report, showing that the cartel's production fell sharply in December, remained supportive of the positive sentiment around oil markets. Despite a combination of negative forces, bearish traders still seemed reluctant to place aggressive bets and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of today's important release of Canadian consumer inflation figures. Technical levels to watchA follow-through selling might now turn the pair vulnerable to challenge 100-day SMA support, around the 1.3185-80 region. On the upside, the 1.3300 handle now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce towards 50-day SMA, around the 1.3340 region.
 

The UK PM Theresa May's spokeswoman was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, and ruled out the snap general election.  Key quotes:     • 

The UK PM Theresa May's spokeswoman was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, and ruled out the snap general election. Key quotes:    •  PM will be holding a meeting with cabinet ministers for Brexit focused talks on Friday.
   •  PM spoke to German Chancellor Merkel and Dutch PM Rutte on Thursday.
   •  Calls with German Chancellor are always constructive.
   •  There will be further calls with EU leaders over the weekend.

India FX Reserves, USD: $397.35B (January 11) vs $396.08B

India Bank Loan Growth down to 14.5% from previous 15.1%

The ounce troy of the yellow metal is extending the weekly downside and is now navigating new multi-day lows in the $1,283 area. Gold looks to data,

The precious metal remains on the defensive near $1,283/oz.The better tone around the greenback keeps weighing on Gold.US Industrial Production, U-Mich index next of relevance.The ounce troy of the yellow metal is extending the weekly downside and is now navigating new multi-day lows in the $1,283 area.Gold looks to data, USDThe recent better tone in the greenback coupled with the important rebound in yields of the US 10-year note is forcing the yellow metal to trade in the lower bound of the 2019 sideline theme. Low volatility in the global markets and a lost of momentum in the risk-off sentiment is also plotting against any meaningful rebound in the metal, which remains capped by the critical $1,300 milestone. Looking ahead, investors will closely follow today’s releases in the US docket, including December Industrial Production figures, the preliminary gauge of Consumer Sentiment and speeches by FOMC’s Williams and Harker.Gold key levelsAs of writing Gold is losing 0.45% at $1,285.72 and a breakdown of $1,282.74 (21-day SMA) would expose $1,276.50 (2019 low Jan.3) and then $1,247.22 (200-day SMA). On the upside, the next hurdle comes in at $1,297.06 (high Jan.10) seconded by $1,298.54 (2019 high Jan.4) and finally $1,309.30 (monthly high Jun.14 2018).

The now selling bias around the Sterling is motivating EUR/GBP to inch higher and retake the critical 0.880 handle and above. EUR/GBP supported near

The cross moves higher on GBP-selling, clinches the 0.88 handle.UK Retail Sales disappointed expectations in December.PM T.May starts her cross-party talks on a ‘Plan B” for Brexit.The now selling bias around the Sterling is motivating EUR/GBP to inch higher and retake the critical 0.880 handle and above.EUR/GBP supported near 0.8760The European cross is now picking up extra pace on the back of the current knee-jerk in the demand for the British Pound, all in the wake of the publication of UK Retail Sales. In fact, GBP is on the defensive today after headline Retail Sales contracted at a monthly 0.9% during the last month of 2018 and expanded 3.0% from a year earlier. Additionally, Core sales also disappointed estimates, contracting 1.3% inter-month and rising at an annualized 2.6%. In the meantime, GBP stays in centre stage, as PM Theresa May is expected to start her cross-party talks in order to come up with an alternative Brexit plan, which will be discussed by Parliament on January 29. It is worth recalling that May’s Brexit deal was rejected by the House of Commons by a large margin, although the PM has survived the J.Corbyn-led no-confidence vote afterwards.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is now gaining 0.52% at 0.8815 and a break above 0.8860 (200-day SMA) would open the door to 0.8901 (55-day SMA) and then 0.8985 (high Jan.15). On the other hand, the next support is located at 0.8763 (2019 low Jan.17) seconded by 0.8723 (monthly low Oct.10 2018) and finally 0.8655 (monthly low Nov.13 2018).

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that the UK retail sales (excluding fuel) fell by 1.3% in December, while constantly evolv

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that the UK retail sales (excluding fuel) fell by 1.3% in December, while constantly evolving nature of Black Friday means getting a clear picture is difficult.Key Quotes“This latest decline echoes the British Retail Consortium and the Visa Spending Index, both of which pointed towards a fairly torrid time for UK high streets over Christmas. We suspect the first few months of 2019 could be equally bumpy.” “While consumer fundamentals have improved over recent months – real wage growth is gradually rising, while the jobs market has stayed resilient – individuals are becoming increasingly nervous about the outlook for their finances and the overall economic situation.” “Until something shifts, we’re likely to see increasing signs of businesses performing contingency actions, and there’s a possibility this gradually slips into the consumer mindset.”

After the recent market turmoil, the focus has shifted back to the China’s Q4 GDP of 2018, which is scheduled to release on coming Monday. As we get c

After the recent market turmoil, the focus has shifted back to the China’s Q4 GDP of 2018, which is scheduled to release on coming Monday. As we get closer to the release date, here are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of major banks regarding the upcoming data. Most of the economists and researchers are expecting that China’s GDP has cooled down to 6.3%-6.4% on yearly basis, against the previous reading of 6.5%.TD Securities“For Q4 GDP, activity data for Oct/Nov and Dec qtr PMIs were weak, all pointing to slower GDP. Composite manufacturing PMIs slipped to 49.9 while services PMIs were elevated at 53.3. Retail sales/IP momentum points to GDP easing from 6.5% to 6.4%/y (mkt 6.4%/y). Trade is supportive for growth as the slump in imports (-10%/q in nominal terms) outpaced the 2.5%/q fall in exports. Mkt range 6.2%-6.4%.”ING“The week begins with China’s 4Q18 GDP and December data on retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production. The consensus estimate of 6.4% year-on-year GDP growth is barely a slowdown from 6.5% in the previous quarter despite all the hue and cry that weighed down global markets in the last quarter. However, a sharp deceleration in manufacturing and retail sales as well as in trade growth, and falling industrial profits signal a downside risk to the consensus GDP estimate. Our house forecast is 6.3%.”Standard Chartered“Analysts at Standard Chartered are expecting that China’s growth may have slowed in Q4 to 6.3% yoy against the previous reading of 6.5%.”

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Today Last Price: 96.11     Today Daily change: 1 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.0208%     

The index is extending the rebound from last week’s lows and is once again facing important resistance in the 96.20/30 band.This area is supported by the 21-day SMA, today at 96.15, and the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the September-December up move, at 96.22.DXY has so far returned to the previous multi-week 95.70-97.70 range and extra gains should now retake the 96.60/80 band, where converge the 55-day SMA and another Fibo retracement.DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.11
    Today Daily change: 1 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.0208%
    Today Daily Open: 96.09
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.19
    Daily SMA50: 96.66
    Daily SMA100: 96.05
    Daily SMA200: 94.99
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.27
    Previous Daily Low: 95.99
    Previous Weekly High: 96.12
    Previous Weekly Low: 95.03
    Previous Monthly High: 97.71
    Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.16
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 95.96
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 95.84
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.68
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.24
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.4
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.52  

   •  UK monthly retail sales figure fall short of expectations and prompted some selling.    •  Brexit speculations continue to support the Pound an

   •  UK monthly retail sales figure fall short of expectations and prompted some selling.
   •  Brexit speculations continue to support the Pound and helped limit deeper losses.
The GBP/USD pair extended its intraday decline and dropped fresh session lows, around the 1.2930-25 region post-UK macro data, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. The pair struggled to build on the previous session's strong up-move to the key 1.30 psychological mark, or two-month tops and witnessed some profit-taking on the last trading day of the week. The bearish pressure remained unabated following the release of UK monthly retail sales figures that recorded a larger than expected drop of 0.9% m/m in Dec.  Adding to this, core retail sales (which exclude fuel prices) also missed expectations and fell 1.3% m/m during the reported month, with the yearly rates unexpectedly falling to show a 3.0% and 2.6% growth respectively as compared to 3.6% and 3.9% expected. However, expectations for an extension of Article 50, despite repeated denials by the UK government, and the market stance of a diminishing hard Brexit risk continued extending some support to the British Pound and helped limit deeper losses, at least for the time being.Technical levels to watchGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2942
    Today Daily change: -45 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.354%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2988
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.275
    Daily SMA50: 1.2752
    Daily SMA100: 1.2892
    Daily SMA200: 1.3099
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3002
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2832
    Previous Weekly High: 1.2866
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2704
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2937
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2897
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.288
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2771
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.271
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3049
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.311
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3219

The greenback is prolonging the sideline theme just above 96.00 the figure so far this week when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY), all amidst the p

The index remains sidelined just above the 96.00 mark today.Yields of the US 10-year note climb to fresh tops near 2.78%.November Industrial Production, flash January U-Mich index next on tap.The greenback is prolonging the sideline theme just above 96.00 the figure so far this week when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY), all amidst the persistent decline in volatility in the global markets.US Dollar Index looks to dataThe index is up for the fourth session in a row today on the back of a moderate rebound in the demand for the buck, managing at the same time to prolong the bounce off last week’s 2019 lows in the 95.00 neighbourhood. Declining volatility, a dovish message from ECB’s Mario Draghi and upbeat results from the Philly Fed index are all sustaining the correction higher in the buck, also aided by the lack of relevant news in the US-China trade dispute and a pick up in yields of the US 10-year note to the boundaries of 2.78%, or 3-week tops. In the US data sphere, Industrial Production figures during November are coming up next seconded by January’s advanced Consumer Sentiment tracked by the U-Mich index.What to look for around USDThe ongoing context of marginal volatility and lack of catalysts leaves the scenario unchanged for the greenback in the very near term. That said, the prospects of a ‘no-hike’ by the Federal Reserve this year coupled with speculations of a slowdown in the US economy remain the centre of attention among investors. In addition, the US partial shutdown is entering its fourth consecutive week and could start weighing on sentiment, while cautiousness remains high around the US-China trade talks.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is up 0.03% at 96.10 and a break above 96.26 (high Jan.17) would target 96.60 (55-day SMA) en route to 96.96 (2019 high Jan.2). On the downside, the next support arises at 95.77 (10-day SMA) seconded by 95.03 (2019 low Jan.3) and finally 95.04 (200-day SMA).

According to analysts at TD Securities, strong official sector gold purchases open up the possibility that gold prices can move significantly above TD

According to analysts at TD Securities, strong official sector gold purchases open up the possibility that gold prices can move significantly above TD’s projected $1,400/oz target in late 2020, should central banks catch the "gold bug".Key Quotes“Central bank reserve portfolio diversification, increasing value of reserves and it being nobody's liability are just a few reasons that strong purchases may be reality for a while yet.” “Central bank gold holdings have grown by a dramatic 13 percent (roughly 3,900 tonnes) since the lows recorded back in 2009 and are expected to grow by another 800 tonnes over the next two years.”

The UK retail sales contracted 0.9% over the month in December, missing market expectations by a small margin while core retail sales stripping the au

The UK retail sales dropped by -0.9% m/m in Dec.The core retail sales in the UK dropped by -1.3% m/m in Dec.The UK retail sales contracted 0.9% over the month in December, missing market expectations by a small margin while core retail sales stripping the auto motor fuel sales also dropped 1.3% m/m. On an annualized basis, the UK retail sales fell 3.0% in December versus 3.6% expected while the core retail sales also declined 2.6% in the reported month versus 3.5% previous and 3.9% expectations.

Analysts at Standard Chartered suggest that the much-anticipated VAT cut in China is likely to be announced before the annual National People’s Congre

Analysts at Standard Chartered suggest that the much-anticipated VAT cut in China is likely to be announced before the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) meetings in March to boost business confidence.Key Quotes“A further VAT cut is mainly intended to lower the tax burden on the manufacturing sector, according to the government.” “We think the next VAT cut will be capped at CNY 1tn due to budget constraints. The official budget deficit is likely to be increased to up to 3% of GDP from 2.6% in 2018, signalling expansionary but still-prudent fiscal policy. Our calculation, assuming restrained recurrent spending, suggests that room for total tax cuts is roughly CNY 1.5tn, with announced cuts in the individual income tax (IIT) and SME taxes accounting for over CNY 500bn already.”

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) registered at 2.6%, below expectations (3.9%) in December

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.8%) in December

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) below forecasts (-0.6%) in December: Actual (-1.3%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 3%, below expectations (3.6%) in December

   •  US-China trade optimism/risk-on mood dampens CHF’s safe-haven appeal.    •  Subdued USD price action fails to provide any additional boost to t

   •  US-China trade optimism/risk-on mood dampens CHF’s safe-haven appeal.
   •  Subdued USD price action fails to provide any additional boost to the major.
   •  The pair remains on track to post strong weekly gains of over 1.0%.
The USD/CHF pair was seen consolidating recent strong gains and oscillated in a narrow trading band, just south of three-week tops.  A combination of supporting factors assisted the pair to build on last week's strong rebound move from over three-month lows and kept pushing higher through Thursday's trading session. A modest US Dollar uptick got an additional boost following the release of better-than-expected US economic data - initial weekly jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index. This coupled optimism led by a report that the US is considering easing tariffs on Chinese products triggered a late rally in the US equity markets and further dented the Swiss Franc's safe-haven status.  The pair rallied to levels just above mid-0.9900s, the highest since December 27, but in absence of any fresh catalysts, lacked any strong follow-through on the last trading day of the week. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Friday and hence, the broader market risk-sentiment and the USD price dynamics might continue to act as key determinants of the pair's momentum. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to end the week with strong gains of around 1% and also seems all set to record its highest weekly close at least since late-December. Technical levels to watchUSD/CHF Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.9942
    Today Daily change: 5 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.0604%
    Today Daily Open: 0.9936
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.9861
    Daily SMA50: 0.9926
    Daily SMA100: 0.9886
    Daily SMA200: 0.9894
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.9955
    Previous Daily Low: 0.989
    Previous Weekly High: 0.9876
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.9716
    Previous Monthly High: 1.0009
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.979
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.993
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.9915
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.9899
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.9862
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.9834
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.9964
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.9992
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0029  

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 124.82     Today Daily change: 37 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.305%     Today

EUR/JPY is extending the recovery for yet another session and is now approaching the critical resistance area around 125.00 the figure.This hurdle is reinforced by August 2018 lows near 124.90 and the 21-day SMA, today at 125.11.A break above this relevant zone is needed to allow extra gains, which should face the next key area 127.00, late December 2018 peaks.EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 124.82
    Today Daily change: 37 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.305%
    Today Daily Open: 124.44
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 124.95
    Daily SMA50: 127.07
    Daily SMA100: 128.49
    Daily SMA200: 129.04
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 124.68
    Previous Daily Low: 123.74
    Previous Weekly High: 125.1
    Previous Weekly Low: 123.4
    Previous Monthly High: 129.3
    Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 124.32
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 124.1
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 123.89
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 123.34
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 122.94
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 124.84
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.24
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 125.79  

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.1395     Today Daily change: 3 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.0351%     Today

The pair is looking to consolidate in the lower bound of the weekly range around the 1.1400 handle against the backdrop of marginal volatility.Therefore, the idea of further consolidation remains well on the cards. That said, EUR/USD stays supported by the 55-day SMA in the 1.1380 area while gains remain capped by the low-1.1400s for the time being.In this scenario, a move lower to test YTD lows in the 1.1300 neighbourhood cannot be ruled out.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1395
    Today Daily change: 3 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.0351%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1391
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1429
    Daily SMA50: 1.1385
    Daily SMA100: 1.1465
    Daily SMA200: 1.1609
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1406
    Previous Daily Low: 1.137
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1571
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1396
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1384
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1393
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1372
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1353
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1426
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1445  

Impact of higher oil prices is fading and will help offset lower economic growth, said the International Energy Agency's (IEA) in its closely watched

Impact of higher oil prices is fading and will help offset lower economic growth, said the International Energy Agency's (IEA) in its closely watched report this Friday. The Paris based agency keeps the estimate of global oil demand growth for 2019 unchanged at 1.4 million bpd and also said that by the middle of the year, US crude output will probably be more than the capacity of either Saudi Arabia or Russia.Additional highlights:   •  Global oil supply fell by 950,000 bpd in Dec., led by lower OPEC output ahead of new production cuts.
   •  Non-OPEC production growth to slow to 1.6 million bpd in 2019. 
   •  This comes on the back of a record annual gain of 2.6 million bpd in 2018.
   •  Russia raised oil production in Dec. to record near 11.5 million bpd and remains unclear when it will cut.

Reuters is out with the headlines from the OPEC statement, citing that the thirteenth OPEC-non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will

Reuters is out with the headlines from the OPEC statement, citing that the thirteenth OPEC-non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan on March, 18th. Earlier today, oilprice.com reported that the OPEC and its allies to hold extraordinary general meeting on Apr. 17-18.

Analysts at Nordea Markets suggest that the equity markets have reached their 15-20% drawdown target in late 2018 with deteriorating liquidity and mac

Analysts at Nordea Markets suggest that the equity markets have reached their 15-20% drawdown target in late 2018 with deteriorating liquidity and macro indicators and they are seeing a higher probability for an earnings recession and stick to a defensive view.Key Quotes“After a vicious December, global equity markets reached our initial target of a 15-20% drawdown from the peak, a drop in line with the 2015-16 experience. On the macro side, however, we find that the comparison with 2015-16 no longer fully holds true.” “There are several negative differences compared with that period, which could mean a more negative stock market scenario this time. Currently, we are even more worried about those differences; so, we are not yet willing to neutralise our underweight equity and corporate bond positions.” “We admit that the call is much harder to make now that markets have temporarily corrected to forward P/E levels that could be viewed as fair on a longer time horizon. However, profit-neutral multiples, such as EV/sales, are still much higher than at the market trough in 2016, and the risk of an earnings recession is, in our view, greater now.”

European Monetary Union Current Account s.a below expectations (€24.1B) in November: Actual (€20.3B)

European Monetary Union Current Account n.s.a: €23.2B (November) vs previous €26.6B

European Monetary Union Current Account s.a below forecasts (€24.1B) in November: Actual (€20B)

Frances Cheung, head of macro strategy at Westpac, explains that the markets are focusing on the stimulus measures, shrugging off the weak China trade

Frances Cheung, head of macro strategy at Westpac, explains that the markets are focusing on the stimulus measures, shrugging off the weak China trade numbers and hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relationship.Key Quotes“This mentality of weak activities triggering stimulus and pushing for a trade agreement may go on for another couple of weeks, supporting risk assets. Another pressure point may come as we get nearer 1 March. Support for USD/CNY is at the 61.8% retracement of 6.6967, while resistance is at 6.8039.” “Before December the trend in China’s trade flows had been front-loading of exports and weak imports of upstream goods. The December data suggest that the boost from front-loading faded and it needs some actual reduction in tariffs or concrete improvement in trade-relation to revive external demand.” “An easing monetary backdrop should keep CNY rates and points soft. Offshore CNH points have fallen rapidly, despite still limited offshore CNH liquidity. With the current offshore-onshore point spreads, back-end CNH points are unlikely to rebound before CNY points do.”

   •  The pair struggled to build on the overnight strong upsurge to two-month tops and started retreating from a four-month-old descending trend-line

   •  The pair struggled to build on the overnight strong upsurge to two-month tops and started retreating from a four-month-old descending trend-line resistance.   •  The mentioned trend-line has acted as a key hurdle and capped every attempted up-move beyond 100-day SMA on several occasions since late-September. GBP/USD daily chart   •  Meanwhile, slightly overbought conditions on the 1-hourly chart seemed to be one of the key factors prompting traders to take some profits off the table.    •  However, bullish oscillators on 4-hourly/daily chart might now attract some dip buying interest near the 1.2930 horizontal resistance break-point turned support. 1-hourly chart   •  This is closely followed by the 1.2900 handle (100-DMA) and 100-hour SMA, around the 1.2880 region, which should act as key support in the near-term.   •  Failure to defend the said support levels would reinforce the descending trend-line barrier and prompt some aggressive technical selling around the major.GBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2951
    Today Daily change: -37 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.285%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2988
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.275
    Daily SMA50: 1.2752
    Daily SMA100: 1.2892
    Daily SMA200: 1.3099
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3002
    Previous Daily Low: 1.2832
    Previous Weekly High: 1.2866
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2704
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2937
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2897
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.288
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2771
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.271
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3049
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.311
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3219  

Marginal volatility in the global markets is keeping EUR/USD within a tight trade range around the key 1.14000 handle so far in the second half of the

The pair keeps the rangebound trade around the 1.1400 mark.The greenback is following suit, keeps the trade just above 96.00.EMU’s Current Account next on tap, US Industrial Production comes later.Marginal volatility in the global markets is keeping EUR/USD within a tight trade range around the key 1.14000 handle so far in the second half of the week.EUR/USD looks to risk trends, dataSpot appears to have stabilized in the 1.1400 neighbourhood so far today, always on the back of decreasing volatility and the absence of significant catalysts in the global markets. In addition, the current rangebound finds support in the 1.1380 region, where sits the key 55-day SMA, while gains appear limited just beyond 1.1400 the figure for the time being. Data wise in the region, November Current Account figures are due later, while Industrial Production and the preliminary print of the U-Mich index will grab all the attention in the NA session.What to look for around EUR/USDProspects of gains around EUR have been undermined by the dovish message from ECB’s Draghi earlier in the week along with some pick up in the demand for the buck. In the meantime, investors should remain focused on the ongoing slowdown in the bloc as well as upcoming issues such as the EU Parliamentary elections in May (populism could gain further presence), social unease in France (the ‘yellow-vest’ issue remains largely unresolved), omnipresence political effervescence in Italy and the likeliness that a technical recession in Germany in H2 2018.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.04% at 1.1393 and a breakout of 1.1422 (21-day SMA) would target 1.1442 (38.2% Fibo of the September-November drop) and finally 1.1465 (100-day SMA). On the downside, immediate contention arises at 1.1382 (55-day SMA) seconded by 1.1378 (low Jan.16) and finally 1.1356 (23.6% Fibo of the September-November drop).

   •  The risk-on mood continues to dent the commodity’s perceived safe-haven status.    •  Steady USD fails to lend any support; dovish Fed expectat

   •  The risk-on mood continues to dent the commodity’s perceived safe-haven status.
   •  Steady USD fails to lend any support; dovish Fed expectations to limit downside.
Gold prices slipped for the second consecutive session, albeit remained well within a broader trading range held over the past one week or so. A report that the US is considering easing tariffs on Chinese products boosted investors' appetite for riskier assets and triggered a later rally in the US equity markets. This coupled with the market stance of a diminishing hard Brexit risk further dented the precious metal's relative safe-haven status.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar remained support by Thursday's upbeat US economic data - initial jobless claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index and did little to lend any support to the dollar-denominated commodity. However, dovish Fed expectations might continue to limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal. Summing it all, the combination of diverging forces might fail to provide any meaningful directional impetus amid absent relevant market moving economic releases, with any attempted up-move seems more likely to remain capped ahead of the key $1300 psychological mark in the near-term.Technical levels to watchXAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1290.16
    Today Daily change: -173 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.134%
    Today Daily Open: 1291.89
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1282.63
    Daily SMA50: 1251.02
    Daily SMA100: 1232.26
    Daily SMA200: 1228.87
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1295.45
    Previous Daily Low: 1288.95
    Previous Weekly High: 1297.15
    Previous Weekly Low: 1279.35
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1291.43
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1292.97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1288.74
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1285.6
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1282.24
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1295.24
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1298.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1301.74  

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that for the China’s Q4 GDP, activity data for Oct/Nov and Dec qtr PMIs were weak, all pointing to slower GDP. Key

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that for the China’s Q4 GDP, activity data for Oct/Nov and Dec qtr PMIs were weak, all pointing to slower GDP.Key Quotes“Composite manufacturing PMIs slipped to 49.9 while services PMIs were elevated at 53.3. Retail sales/IP momentum points to GDP easing from 6.5% to 6.4%/y (mkt 6.4%/y).” “Trade is supportive for growth as the slump in imports (-10%/q in nominal terms) outpaced the 2.5%/q fall in exports. Mkt range 6.2%-6.4%.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY has eroded the 20 day ma and the market looks set to extend gains to the 110.30 region before failure. K

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY has eroded the 20 day ma and the market looks set to extend gains to the 110.30 region before failure.Key Quotes“We would then allow slippage back towards the 104.10 spike low. The recent move lower was exhaustive and we suspect that this will hold for now.” “Above 110.30 will allow for a retest of the 111.38 the 26th October low. Support at 104.63/10 guards the 100.70 Fibonacci support and the 99.00 2016 low. Initial support lies 107.77, 10th January low.”

Analysts at Danske Bank note that the global market sentiment was initially lifted by headlines that the US administration is considering rolling back

Analysts at Danske Bank note that the global market sentiment was initially lifted by headlines that the US administration is considering rolling back some of the tariffs on Chinese imports but the rally was short-lived as the US Treasury denied the story soon after.Key Quotes“In addition, the story was probably not as interesting as the headlines suggested, as the story states that the proposal comes from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin (a China dove), while the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (China hawk) opposes the idea. Nonetheless, we still interpret the story as another sign that a US-China trade deal is moving closer and markets probably do as well.”

According to Robert Rennie, head of FM strategy at Westpac, the BoJ will be the main event for the JPY, though no change in policy is expected. Key Q

According to Robert Rennie, head of FM strategy at Westpac, the BoJ will be the main event for the JPY, though no change in policy is expected.Key Quotes“Given this is a quarterly outlook meeting, it will be what the BoJ does with its forecasts and how it talks to both the domestic and international issues the economy faces. Increasing downside risks to inflation and growth present a challenge to the BOJ.” “In the last couple of sessions, we have started more clearly testing the downtrend that USD/JPY has been in since mid December. Daily technical indicators (MACD/ RSI) have started to more clearly point up and this leaves us more optimistic in the near term that we should see this recovery move continue.” “However, bounces should be limited above 110 given the very range bound nature of the US$ at the moment and elevated political risks e.g. Brexit, France, US Government shutdown etc.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the GBP/USD pair remains bid following the break through its downtrend recently. Key Quotes “The

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the GBP/USD pair remains bid following the break through its downtrend recently.Key Quotes“The market recently sold off to and recovered from a 5 month support line, today located at 1.2420.” “We regard the slide to 1.2444 charted recently as the end of the down move and we look for gains to the 200 day ma at 1.3096. Dips will find initial support at the 55 day ma at 1.2781. Below 1.2444/25 targets the 78.6% retracement at 1.2109.” “Only a rise above the July, September and October highs at 1.3258/1.3363 would put the June high at 1.3473 on the cards.”  

UK retail sales Overview The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to drop 0.8% m/m in December, fo

UK retail sales OverviewThe UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0930 GMT, are expected to drop 0.8% m/m in December, following a 1.4% rebound seen in November. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 3.6% over the year, same as that booked previously. Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen contracting -0.6% m/m while rising 3.9% y/y.Deviation impact on GBP/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.How could it affect GBP/USD?FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “The overnight bullish move paused near a four-month-old descending trend-line resistance, which has been capping any attempted moves beyond 100-day SMA on several occasions. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained buying above the 1.30 handle before traders positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Beyond the mentioned barrier the pair is likely to accelerate the up-move towards reclaiming the 1.3100 handle en-route the next major hurdle near the 1.3140-50 supply zone.” “On the flip side, the .2935-30 region now seems to protect the immediate downside and is closely followed by 100-day SMA support, around the 1.2895 area. A sustained weakness back below the said support levels will reinforce the descending trend-line barrier and prompt some additional long-unwinding trade, dragging the pair further towards 1.2830-20 support area ahead of the 1.2800 handle,” Haresh adds.Key NotesMarket themes of the Day: The UK retail sales and Canada’s inflation headline UK Retail sales Preview: Worst December retails sales in a decade as shoppers spend less UK: Focus on retail sales today – TDSAbout the UK retail salesThe Retail Sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

   •  Renewed US-China trade optimism prompted some short-covering on Thursday.    •  The uptick seemed to lack any strong follow-through amid a mode

   •  Renewed US-China trade optimism prompted some short-covering on Thursday.
   •  The uptick seemed to lack any strong follow-through amid a modest USD strength.
The AUD/USD pair struggled to build on the overnight goodish rebound from one-week lows and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, around the 0.7200 handle. The latest optimism over progress in the US-China trade talks, following a report that said US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was considering easing tariffs on Chinese products, provided a strong boost to the China-proxy Aussie and prompted some short-covering during the US trading session on Thursday. The pair rallied to an intraday high level of 0.7221 in reaction to the headlines but trimmed some of the daily gains after the Treasury Department quickly denied the news, with a modest US Dollar uptick, also supported by upbeat US economic data, further collaborated towards capping any additional strong up-move. In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the US, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7195
    Today Daily change: -1 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.0278%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7197
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7105
    Daily SMA50: 0.7184
    Daily SMA100: 0.7172
    Daily SMA200: 0.732
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7222
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7146
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7236
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7089
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7193
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7175
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7155
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7079
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7231
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7264
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7307  

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) down to -0.6% in December from previous -0.3%

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) declined to 0.6% in December from previous 1.4%

Preliminary figures from CME Group saw open interest in JPY futures markets contracting around 9.2K contracts on Thursday from Friday’s final 229,193

Preliminary figures from CME Group saw open interest in JPY futures markets contracting around 9.2K contracts on Thursday from Friday’s final 229,193 contracts. On the other hand, volume extended the choppy activity, shrinking by nearly 22.7K contracts.USD/JPY room for extra gains…110.00 closer?The softer tone in the Japanese safe haven comes amidst a lack of direction in volume, while open interest has been declining in past sessions. While further upside in USD/JPY is not ruled out in the near term, the downtrend in open interest could remove some tailwinds from the underlying move.

In an interview with public broadcaster ZDF late-Thursday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas noted that he thinks there should be a discussion abo

In an interview with public broadcaster ZDF late-Thursday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas noted that he thinks there should be a discussion about reopening the draft Brexit deal, but only if all EU countries agreed with it.Key Quotes (via Reuters):“In the end, it will be about the question whether to reopen the deal which needs the approval of all 27 member states, which means that everyone has to join in. This is what needs to be discussed now.”

GBP futures markets from CME Group noted open interest dropped by nearly 2K contracts on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 216,613 contracts. Volume fol

GBP futures markets from CME Group noted open interest dropped by nearly 2K contracts on Thursday from Wednesday’s final 216,613 contracts. Volume followed suit, shrinking by almost 16.2K contracts and clinching the second drop in a row.GBP/USD capped by 1.3000 so farCable’s sharp move higher on Thursday was in tandem with declining open interest and volume, adding to the idea that a pause in the ongoing rally is expected (and logical). In this regard, the 1.3000 handle is seen as a strong nut to crack and bulls would surely need a strong catalyst to surpass this level.

According to analysts at Danske Bank, UK retail sales for December are set to provide an insight into whether consumer spending in the UK stayed robus

According to analysts at Danske Bank, UK retail sales for December are set to provide an insight into whether consumer spending in the UK stayed robust at the end of 2018 despite the Brexit turmoil.Key Quotes“Watch out for any headlines on US-China trade talks after The Wall Street Journal’s story that the US administration is considering reduce tariffs on Chinese imports.” “Despite the sharp fall in ISM manufacturing, US industrial production probably registered another increase in December, according to consensus. In light of the ongoing US government shutdown, it will also be interesting to see whether consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for January shows the first signs of any negative repercussions. The weekly consumer confidence index from Bloomberg has moved lower recently.” “New York Fed President John Williams is also scheduled to speak in the afternoon and we will again look out in particular for any hints on the future strategy around the balance sheet.”

   •  Renewed US-China trade optimism dents JPY’s relative safe-haven status.    •  Softer Japanese National CPI further weighs on JPY and remained s

   •  Renewed US-China trade optimism dents JPY’s relative safe-haven status.
   •  Softer Japanese National CPI further weighs on JPY and remained supportive.
   •  Subdued USD price action seemed to be only factor capping additional gains.
The USD/JPY pair held on to its mildly positive tone for the fourth consecutive session and is currently placed at 2-1/2 week tops, around the 109.35-40 region. The market cheered overnight reports that the US officials were considering rolling back import levies on Chinese goods to calm markets and ease trade tensions. The news triggered a late rally in the US equity markets and dented the Japanese Yen's relative safe-haven status. The Japanese Yen was further weighed down by today's release of softer domestic National Core CPI print, falling more than expected to 0.7% y/y rate in December as compared to 0.8% rise expected and 0.9% previous, and extended some additional support to the major.  Meanwhile, the US Dollar managed to preserve/add to the previous session's uptick but lacked any strong follow-through amid dovish Fed expectations and might now turn out to be the only factor that might hold bullish traders from placing any aggressive bets. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US and hence, the broader market risk-sentiment, coupled with the USD price dynamics might continue to act as key determinants of the pair's momentum on the last trading day of the week. Technical outlookOmkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor write: “A close above 109.09 (high of last week's doji candle) would confirm bearish exhaustion and open the doors for a move above the psychological hurdle of 110.00.” “That said, the overall outlook remains bearish while the pair is held below the former-support-turned-resistance of the 100-day moving average (MA), currently at 112.072,” he added further.
 

USD/CAD, 15-Minute The Dollar's rebound against the Loonie remains limited, caught on the long side of support from 1.3250, but bullish momentum

Intraday action for USD/CAD this week sees the pair largely stuck in consolidation, and a decisive break of 1.3300 will be required before the Dollar can resume gaining ground against the Loonie.USD/CAD, 15-MinuteThe Dollar's rebound against the Loonie remains limited, caught on the long side of support from 1.3250, but bullish momentum remains decidedly limited below 1.3300.USD/CAD, 1-HourUSD/CAD's tumble from 1.3666 sees the pair snagged on the 1.3270 level, and a bounce back to the 38.2% Fibo retracement level near 1.3366 is still forthcoming.USD/CAD, 4-HourUSD/CAD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3274
    Today Daily change: 0 pips
    Today Daily change %: -1.42e-14%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3274
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3464
    Daily SMA50: 1.3367
    Daily SMA100: 1.32
    Daily SMA200: 1.3097
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.332
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3248
    Previous Weekly High: 1.339
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.318
    Previous Monthly High: 1.4134
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.316
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3293
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3276
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3242
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3209
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.317
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3314
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3353
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3386  

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that despite some weak indicators for the Christmas shopping period, they are expecting last month's retail sales of

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that despite some weak indicators for the Christmas shopping period, they are expecting last month's retail sales of UK economy to hold unchanged on the volumes front (mkt: -0.8%), locking in on November's gains.Key Quotes“The wildcards will be if and by how much Black Friday purchases ate into December shopping, and how much discounting retailers did to shift volumes in December (even if nominal revenues were weak).”

FX option expiries for Jan 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1375 653m 1.1400 1.9b 1.1405

FX option expiries for Jan 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1375 653m 1.1400 1.9b 1.1405 781m 1.1415 778m 1.1420 587m 1.1425 726m 1.1500 905m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.00 1.5b 108.10 835m 108.50 621m 109.00 2.2b 109.10 929m 110.00 4.0b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2800 263m 1.2950 281m 1.2960 221m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7115 998m 0.7145 798m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3200 520m

CME Group’s flash data for EUR futures markets showed traders added around 1.1K contracts to their open interest positions on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s

CME Group’s flash data for EUR futures markets showed traders added around 1.1K contracts to their open interest positions on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 525,546 contracts. In the same line, volume rose by more than 8.3K contracts following the previous sharp drop.EUR/USD seen rangebound so farEUR/USD is extending the sideline theme around the 1.1400 handle, the lower bound of the weekly range, amidst an uptick in both open interest and volume. That said, extra consolidation is thus expected, at least in the short-term horizon.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the EUR/USD will ideally start to stabilise after it continues to weigh on its 55 day moving averag

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the EUR/USD will ideally start to stabilise after it continues to weigh on its 55 day moving average at 1.1384.Key Quotes“The market last week broke above the 1.1500 resistance but has not sustained the break, it is currently neutral. Dips lower should be contained by the near term uptrend at 1.1327. We favour a recovery to the 1.1602/23 200 day ma and mid October high and slightly longer term we target 1.1786, the 55 week ma.” “Failure at 1.1267 will trigger losses to the 1.1216 recent low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Please note that we continue to regard the 1.1216 recent low as an interim low for the market.”

In view of Tim Riddell, senior market strategist at Westpac, there are deeper depressing factors at play across the Eurozone, in addition to the recen

In view of Tim Riddell, senior market strategist at Westpac, there are deeper depressing factors at play across the Eurozone, in addition to the recent sharp pullback in industrial production in Eurozone, which may have been impacted by the slow-down in German auto production due emission scandals.Key Quotes“The weakness in German factory orders and capital goods exports with other Eurozone countries underscores the continuing softness in regional activity into 2019. This is in sharp contrast to the outsized growth seen in late 2017. ZEW expectations do appear to be bottoming out, but remain at low levels and, given their lead factor, still suggest that activity should remain low.” “Recent comments from ECB members, notably including Draghi, highlighted lower growth than expected and the lack of inflation pressures in the region with core CPI stuck at 1.0%. Their conclusion remains that ECB stimulus needs to be sustained and so their extended forward guidance will likely be underscored on 24th.” “Rebounds in EUR/USD are likely to define range resistance in the 1.15-1.16 area with bias for further slippage towards 1.12 support.”

Crude markets are finding some more lift on Friday with WTI barrels ticking up into 52.75 on rising market confidence to cap off a restrained trading

Oil prices testing higher for Friday on improving market sentiment.US production continues to push higher as demand struggles to eat up supply.Crude markets are finding some more lift on Friday with WTI barrels ticking up into 52.75 on rising market confidence to cap off a restrained trading week. Various US energy reserves, from crude stockpiles to gasoline buildups, continue to flip back and forth between new stockpile highs under record US production, which tipped the scales at 11.9 million barrels per day, and frequent downside swings as demand eats away at supply, but the overall trend continues to lean into overproduction. OPEC+ production cuts continue to remain a key bolstering factor for energy markets, but further moves to the upside will require a continued improving in overall market sentiment to keep pushing commodity prices higher. Crude prices continue to price in a bullish correction from late December's bottoms, but the current upmove will need to mount January 11th's peaks near 53.30 before oil markets can officially start a new leg higher, while bearish pressure from further US supply buildups or a resurgence in US-China trade tensions will see broader markets head lower once again, taking commodities with it.WTI Technical LevelsWTI Overview:
    Today Last Price: 53.04
    Today Daily change: 53 pips
    Today Daily change %: 1.03%
    Today Daily Open: 52.5
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 48.8
    Daily SMA50: 50.96
    Daily SMA100: 59.86
    Daily SMA200: 64.2
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 52.89
    Previous Daily Low: 51.29
    Previous Weekly High: 53.57
    Previous Weekly Low: 48.33
    Previous Monthly High: 54.68
    Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 51.9
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 52.28
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 51.56
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 50.63
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 49.96
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 53.16
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 53.83
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 54.76  

Forex today cheered a risk-friendly market environment, as the revival of hopes over the US-China trade resolution boosted the sentiment across Asia.

Forex today cheered a risk-friendly market environment, as the revival of hopes over the US-China trade resolution boosted the sentiment across Asia. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen traded on the back foot amid risk-on action in the Asian equities, sending USD/JPY back near 109.50 levels. The Japanese benchmark, the Nikkei 225 index, rallied 1.30% to test the 20,700 level. Meanwhile, the Antipodeans traded modestly flat, divided between China slowdown fears and US-China trade optimism. The Aussie kept its range around the 0.72 handle while its OZ neighbor, the Kiwi, hovered near 0.6760 region. The commodity-currencies were also unfazed by the rise in oil prices.Main Topics in AsiaECB rate hike on the backburner once again - Reuters poll NBS: China revises 2017 GDP growth down to 6.8% y/y vs. 6.9% previous Mnuchin, Treasury don't see eye-to-eye on China tariffs - Bloomberg Japan’s Aso: Making changes to budget due to the wages issue Gold Technical Analysis: break above $1,300 elusive despite "golden crossover" BoJ vexed by inflation at seven-month low - Reuters Fitch: Housing market risks through Asia-pac region are varied China's Liu: China, Germany agree to lower entry barriers OPEC and its allies to hold extraordinary general meeting on Apr. 17-18Key Focus AheadFriday’s EUR macro calendar remains eventful, kicking-off with the Swiss producer and import prices due at 0815 GMT. Thereafter, the Eurozone current account figures will drop in at 0900 GMT. The key highlight this session would be on the UK retail sales data, although the impact of the data on the pound is likely to be limited, as the Brexit uncertainty continue to remain the exclusive driver. The UK retail sales for December is likely to drop by 0.8% m/m while steadying at 3.6% y/y. In the NA session, the Canadian CPI data, due at 1330 GMT, will headline, followed by the US industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data slated for release at 1415 GMT and 1500 GMT respectively. Meanwhile, for the oil traders, Bakers Hughes oil rigs count data due at 1800 GMT will hold a major significance. Apart from the economic data, the speech by the FOMC member Williams is seen at 1405 GMT. EUR/USD holds below 1.14, economists push out the ECB rate hike forecast The rising odds of the ECB rate hike delay could keep the EUR under pressure. As a result, EUR/USD is more likely to invalidate bearish exhaustion signaled by yesterday's doji with a move below 1.1370.  GBP/USD set for a challenge of 1.3000, lagging UK retail sales clouding the picture Retail Sales data is slated for Friday morning, dropping at 09:30 GMT with December's annualized Retail Sales forecast to hold steady at 3.6%, but the decidedly mid-tier data is unlikely to drive much attention as markets remain focused on Brexit developments. Canada’s inflation Preview: Inflation data unalter the outlook for ongoing policy tightening towards neutral Canada’s inflation is expected to remain stable at 1.7% over the year in December, missing the official inflation target of 2% at the end of the year.  Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preview: Lower is relative The University of Michigan will release it Consumer Sentiment Index for January at 10:00 am EST 15:00 GMT on Friday January 18th.  The Partial US Government Shutdown: Much ado about politics A quarter of the US government has been shuttered for  a month and the economic impact is hard to discern.   

Analysts at TD Securities note that New Zealand’s, Dec PMI increased to 55.1 from 53.7 in Nov, largely driven by gains in production +3.8, finished st

Analysts at TD Securities note that New Zealand’s, Dec PMI increased to 55.1 from 53.7 in Nov, largely driven by gains in production +3.8, finished stocks +3.3 and deliveries +5.5.Key Quotes“It was an 8m high and above the long-term average of 53.4. NZGBs held offshore declined further from 56.2% to 54.6% in Dec, ending 2018 at the lowest ratio since mid-2004.”

According to the Westpac-McDermott Miller Regional Economic Confidence survey for NZ economy, regional economic confidence picked up in the December 2

According to the Westpac-McDermott Miller Regional Economic Confidence survey for NZ economy, regional economic confidence picked up in the December 2018 quarter, notes the research team at Westpac.Key Quotes“All eleven regions posted an improvement in regional economic confidence.” “Households in New Zealand’s most southern regions and on the east coast of the North Island are the most confident.” “Consumer confidence, which measures households’ views of their personal economic circumstances, rose in ten of eleven regions, with households reporting an increased appetite for spending.”

According to Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, excess supply in the global oil market may soon be absorbed, with the Saudi Arabia

According to Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, excess supply in the global oil market may soon be absorbed, with the Saudi Arabia delivering on last December’s pledge (with Russia) to cut oil production.Key Quotes“Latest data from OPEC indeed shows Saudi output falling from a record 11 million barrels per day to just 10.6 million barrels per day in December. This 4% monthly decline was complemented by a 5.4% cut in sanction-hit Iran. And with further OPEC production cuts in the cards, excess supply in the global oil market may soon be absorbed.” “The oil market is so close to balance that a larger-than-expected decline in supply (e.g. unscheduled disruptions to production) or increase in demand (e.g. global GDP growth surprises on the upside) could be enough to return it to an excess demand situation, boosting global oil prices in the process.”

Analysts at Westpac, point out that this week’s data flow has been very light in the US, thanks to the continuing government shutdown, which is now th

Analysts at Westpac, point out that this week’s data flow has been very light in the US, thanks to the continuing government shutdown, which is now the longest in history.Key Quotes“Though the shutdown’s real economy impact should be negligible, assuming the government is opened soon and back pay is provided to workers, the mounting backlog of delayed data releases means that the real economy view will remain opaque for some time – potentially even beyond the FOMC’s 19-20 March meeting. This is presumably a key reason the market remains unwilling to price in a significant chance of further tightening by the FOMC in 2019, even as investors become increasingly optimistic over US/ China trade relations, equity markets rally back from their lows and, as made clear by Federal Reserve Governor Quarles overnight, the US’ real economy remains “very strong”.” “As evinced by remarks from President Draghi this week, this tension between real economy strength and the long list of global risks is not only at play in the US but also Europe. In both locales, policy setting in 2019 will increasingly occur in the moment, depending on data and risks to hand.”  

According to Bloomberg, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy watchers expect the BoJ to remain virtually unchanged through 2019 as weakening inflation keeps the

According to Bloomberg, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy watchers expect the BoJ to remain virtually unchanged through 2019 as weakening inflation keeps the BoJ understated.Key quotesAll but one of 50 economists said they expect the BOJ to stand pat as it concludes a two-day policy meeting on Jan. 23, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted Jan. 10-15. The outlook for Japan’s growth and inflation this year has dimmed amid signs of slowing global growth, including in China. The U.S.-China trade war poses a risk to Japan’s export-dependent economy, as does a stronger yen. The currency, seen as a haven asset, has surged in recent weeks as investors sought shelter from market turmoil. More than 90 percent of economists said they expected the BOJ to cut at least one of its annual inflation forecasts when it releases its quarterly outlook report after its meeting next week, and more than 80 percent said it would trim at least one growth forecast.  

Japan Cabinet Office Official quoted the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Kuroda, as saying that “expect Sino-US trade friction to be resolved this year”. No furt

Japan Cabinet Office Official quoted the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Kuroda, as saying that “expect Sino-US trade friction to be resolved this year”. No further comments out by the Japanese Cabinet.

Analysts at ING suggest that the focus of the next week will be on the release of China’s 4Q18 GDP, in addition to the December data on retail sales,

Analysts at ING suggest that the focus of the next week will be on the release of China’s 4Q18 GDP, in addition to the December data on retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production.Key Quotes“The consensus estimate of 6.4% year-on-year GDP growth is barely a slowdown from 6.5% in the previous quarter despite all the hue and cry that weighed down global markets in the last quarter. However, a sharp deceleration in manufacturing and retail sales as well as in trade growth, and falling industrial profits signal a downside risk to the consensus GDP estimate. Our house forecast is 6.3%.” “Net trade seemed to have offset some of the slack in domestic spending. Although export growth slowed in the last quarter, import growth slowed by more than exports and the trade surplus widened from a year ago. Net trade subtracted from GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2018 but contributed to it in the final quarter.”

Japan Capacity Utilization declined to 1% in November from previous 4%

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 1.5% in November from previous 1.4%

Hourly chart Trend: bearish NZD/USD Overview:     Today Last Price: 0.6761     Today Daily change: -6 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.103%

NZD/USD's repeated failure to beat the downward sloping 50-hour MA reinforces the immediate bearish setup, as represented by the lower highs and lower lows, head-and-shoulders breakdown and by the negative crossover between the 50- and 200-hour MAs. The pair risks falling to the previous day's low of 0.6728. The bearish view would be aborted if the overnight high of 0.6787 is scaled. As of writing, the pair is trading at 0.6760. Hourly chartTrend: bearish NZD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.6761
    Today Daily change: -6 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.103%
    Today Daily Open: 0.6768
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6745
    Daily SMA50: 0.6797
    Daily SMA100: 0.6687
    Daily SMA200: 0.6786
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.6787
    Previous Daily Low: 0.6727
    Previous Weekly High: 0.6845
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.6707
    Previous Monthly High: 0.697
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.6686
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.675
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6764
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6735
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6701
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6675
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6795
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6821
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6855  

GBP/USD is trading just south of the major 1.3000 handle as Pound sentiment improves heading into the week's end, with the Cable floating near 1.2980

Despite a bullish push to end the week, Cable markets remain tense as Brexit uncertainty settles in for the long haul.PM May may have won her no-confidence vote, but her hands remain tied, with only days to produce an alternative Brexit deal.GBP/USD is trading just south of the major 1.3000 handle as Pound sentiment improves heading into the week's end, with the Cable floating near 1.2980 and sticking near Thursday's closing prices. Retail Sales data is slated for Friday morning, dropping at 09:30 GMT with December's annualized Retail Sales forecast to hold steady at 3.6%, but the decidedly mid-tier data is unlikely to drive much attention as markets remain focused on Brexit developments. Prime Minister Theresa May, having survived a no-confidence vote, still faces an unwinnable uphill task, with a deadline of Monday to produce an alternative Brexit withdrawal agreement, or PM May may have no choice but to face a Brexit delay despite her government's vehement opposition to such a move. But in the interest of averting an economic disaster in the shape of a hard Brexit, May's government may face no choice but to face down an extension of Article 50, and the Brexit wheel is set to resume turning over slowly after two years of little to no progress, and the grim reality facing the Cable could see the GBP restrained in the long-term, but in the meantime, Pound traders are enjoying a much-needed bounceback at the tail-end of a tough week.GBP/USD Levels to watchDespite Brexit uncertainty set to continue into the future, Sterling traders are beginning to finally push out for more gains, and GBP/USD is set for a bullish continuation according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: The pair is technically bullish, approaching the key 1.3000 mark. The 4 hours chart shows that a bullish 20 SMA keeps providing intraday dynamic support, currently at around 1.2870, while the indicator keeps advancing above the 200 EMA, this last modestly bullish over 200 pips below the current level. The RSI indicator in the mentioned chart near oversold levels, while the Momentum maintains a bullish slope well above its midline, indicating the advance may continue during the upcoming sessions. Support levels: 1.2930 1.2885 1.2840
Resistance levels: 1.3000 1.3035 1.3080  

Analysts at Westpac suggest that while the market view this week’s developments in the UK economy as a positive (given their view that they raise the

Analysts at Westpac suggest that while the market view this week’s developments in the UK economy as a positive (given their view that they raise the chance of a soft-Brexit or no-Brexit outcome), the reality is that the harshest possible outcome (a no-deal Brexit) is the default result.Key Quotes“Reports also suggest PM May is against a softer-Brexit – where the UK stays in the customs union permanently. Negotiations between PM May’s Conservatives and the other parties have begun in pursuit of a compromise, but given PM May’s strident position and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s unwillingness to take part as long as a no-deal Brexit remains a possibility, a near-term deal seems highly unlikely.” “European officials are willing to allow an extension of the negotiating period past 29 March, but at this juncture it is not clear this will be productive either. Uncertainty over the UK outlook therefore looks set to remain rife into mid-year, causing the UK economy further material harm.”

Analysts at ING expect that most Asian central banks will leave policies on hold this year, if not ease as a weak end to one year makes it arithmetica

Analysts at ING expect that most Asian central banks will leave policies on hold this year, if not ease as a weak end to one year makes it arithmetically harder for the following year to score well.Key Quotes“Central banks in Japan, Korea, and Malaysia meet next week. All are expected to remain on hold. Our interest lies in the Bank of Korea’s policy as the central bank also releases its quarterly Economic Outlook on the same day (24 January). In its October report, the BoK forecast 2.7% GDP growth for 2019, the same as its estimate for 2018.” “The 2018 growth forecast is unlikely to be met and the pace for 2019 looks to be far off in view of the global slowdown in the tech sector. As such, a downgrade to the BoK’s growth outlook for the current year shouldn’t come as surprise to anyone. However, we don't think this will move the central bank to reverse the December rate hike just yet.”  

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold an extra ordinary full ministerial meeting on April 17, while the cartel’s non-

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will hold an extra ordinary full ministerial meeting on April 17, while the cartel’s non-OPEC partners will join for a full OPEC+ meeting on the following day, an OPEC official told S&P Global Platts on Thursday, according to oilprice.com.  The meeting has been called to discuss the current state of the oil market and whether or not to extend the production cuts which currently expire in June.

Reuters reports the latest opinions from various analysts, citing that the US could extend waivers from sanctions on Iranian oil imports in May. Howev

Reuters reports the latest opinions from various analysts, citing that the US could extend waivers from sanctions on Iranian oil imports in May. However, the number of countries receiving them are likely to be cut down.Further Details:China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey are likely to be given waivers after they expire in May that could cap Iran’s crude oil exports at about 1.1 million barrels per day, U.S.-based analysts at Eurasia Group said on Thursday. That would remove Italy, Greece and Taiwan from the current waivers list. Mike Tran, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets said: “Given (U.S.) President Trump’s public affection for low oil prices, and the difficulty of getting countries like China and India to completely cut back, the White House will likely settle for less than zero next time though they may be able to achieve a reduction of several hundred thousand additional barrels.”

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -1%, above forecasts (-1.1%) in November

Indeed, the pair created a doji candle yesterday, which represents indecision in the market place. However, do not rule out the bears just yet, as the

The pair charted a doji yesterday. A break below 1.1370 would signal a continuation of the sell-off. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1393, having hit a two-week low of 1.1370 yesterday. The common currency has retraced 50 percent of the rally from the Nov. 12 low of 1.1215 to Jan. 10 high of 1.1570. Indeed, the pair created a doji candle yesterday, which represents indecision in the market place. However, do not rule out the bears just yet, as the slowdown in the Eurozone economy could force the European Central Bank (ECB) to delay rate hikes.  Notably, economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to hike rates in the four quarter as opposed to the previous forecast of a third-quarter rate hike. The central bank is seen raising its deposit rate, currently at -0.40 percent, to -0.20 percent in the fourth quarter and would wait until early 2020 to raise its refinancing rate from zero to 0.20 percent. The rising odds of the ECB rate hike delay could keep the EUR under pressure. As a result, EUR/USD is more likely to invalidate bearish exhaustion signaled by yesterday's doji with a move below 1.1370. The bearish pressure would weaken if the pair closes above the 10-day EMA, currently at 1.1420. EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1396
    Today Daily change: 4 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.0439%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1391
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1429
    Daily SMA50: 1.1385
    Daily SMA100: 1.1465
    Daily SMA200: 1.1609
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1406
    Previous Daily Low: 1.137
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1571
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1396
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1384
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1393
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1372
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1353
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1336
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1409
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1426
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1445  

Analysts at Standard Chartered are expecting world growth to ease modestly to 3.6% in 2019 from 3.8% in 2018. Key Quotes “Several growth-supportive

Analysts at Standard Chartered are expecting world growth to ease modestly to 3.6% in 2019 from 3.8% in 2018.Key Quotes“Several growth-supportive factors that the markets had grown accustomed to in recent years are now reversing – (1) the QE era is giving way to an era of higher funding costs (2) globalisation is facing bouts of protectionism (3) demographic dividends are turning into drags for some major economies.” “A number of factors could slow growth more aggressively in 2019 – US-China trade war, European politics, China’s tough balancing act, and oil price volatility.”

Analysts at Rabobank point out that in the UK, PM May has cancelled all Brexit-related legislation next week, and the next meaningful vote is now 29 J

Analysts at Rabobank point out that in the UK, PM May has cancelled all Brexit-related legislation next week, and the next meaningful vote is now 29 January, only two months before Brexit happens automatically.Key Quotes“In other words, she has no Plan B, and yet she is locking herself in a room until the UK runs out of time. While the UK press has been muttering about an Article 50 extension, the EU seems to be girding its loins for Hard Brexit, which is where they do get Vegetius right for once when you think about the staggering amount of legislation that still needs to be passed in the UK in a now truncated timetable.” “And today we see left-wing The Guardian say Labour will split if it pushes for a second referendum as many of the Shadow Cabinet have their seats in Leave constituencies, while the right-wing Telegraph says there will be mass Tory Cabinet resignations if May doesn’t allow MPs to stop no-deal Brexit. From Vegetius to vegetables.” “As someone commented on social media last night, there’s no parliamentary majority for May’s deal; there’s no parliamentary majority for No Deal; there’s no parliamentary majority for No Brexit; there’s no parliamentary majority for another referendum; and there’s no parliamentary majority for another government. There’s also no popular majority in the country for an extension to Article 50 or for a second referendum, as people are as thoroughly sick of the whole process as you are of reading about it and I am of writing about it. In short, the UK has a constitutional crisis of the gravest kind as it trundles towards 29 March. And Theresa May-hem has just delayed all real action for a further 11 days.”  

China's Vice Premier Liu, while speaking at an event in Beijing, said that Germany and China are committed to multilateral trade.  Key quotes China,

China's Vice Premier Liu, while speaking at an event in Beijing, said that Germany and China are committed to multilateral trade. Key quotesChina, Germany agree to lower market entry barriers.  Both nations are committed to greater financial market connections. 

GBP/JPY is currently trading at 141.94, representing a 1.7 percent gain from the weekly opening price of 139.28. That is the biggest weekly gain sinc

GBP/JPY looks set to report the biggest weekly gain since late October. Falling odds of "soft Brexit" and risk-on action in the equities could keep GBP/JPY on the offensive. GBP/JPY is currently trading at 141.94, representing a 1.7 percent gain from the weekly opening price of 139.28. That is the biggest weekly gain since the week ended Oct. 26, when the pair had rallied 2.5 percent. Sterling is reporting solid gains this week, mainly due to growing expectations that Britain can avoid a no-deal or hard Brexit.   Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal suffered a heavy defeat in parliament. The leader, however, survived a vote of no confidence. The resulting drop in the political uncertainty likely put a bid under the British currency. Analysts believe the risks are skewed in favor of soft Brexit. Further, the talk of a second referendum is also gathering pace and a YouGov poll shows "remain" would win by a 12 percentage point margin if Britons head to polling stations again. Notably, the pair may extend weekly gains before the NY close, as the JPY will likely remain offered amid risk-on action in the equities. As of writing, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.30 percent gain.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsGBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 141.85
    Today Daily change: -3 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.0211%
    Today Daily Open: 141.88
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 139.39
    Daily SMA50: 142.33
    Daily SMA100: 144.49
    Daily SMA200: 145.6
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 142.22
    Previous Daily Low: 139.51
    Previous Weekly High: 139.49
    Previous Weekly Low: 137.44
    Previous Monthly High: 145.52
    Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.19
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 140.55
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.18
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 138.49
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 137.47
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 142.9
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 143.92
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 145.61

The US-based Fitch Ratings published the latest report, reviewing the developments in the Asia-Pacific housing markets. Key Highlights: “Housing mar

The US-based Fitch Ratings published the latest report, reviewing the developments in the Asia-Pacific housing markets.Key Highlights:“Housing market risks through the region are varied. In Singapore, house prices are expected to rise; while in South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, property market conditions are likely to continue to soften.  We do not foresee developments in housing markets in Australia and New Zealand to have a material impact on asset performance and therefore covered bond ratings in 2019, as both countries are supported by sustained economic growth, low and stable unemployment, significant population growth and low, albeit rising interest rates.  Do not expect any downgrades of sovereign ratings in the region. However, the consequences of geopolitical risks on an international scale are hard to predict.”

The USD/JPY pair could test the key hurdle at 109.64 as the bullish view put forward by the ascending triangle breakout is backed by the uptick in the

The USD/JPY pair could test the key hurdle at 109.64 as the bullish view put forward by the ascending triangle breakout is backed by the uptick in the S&P 500 futures.4-hour chartThe previous 4-hour candle closed at 109.36, confirming an ascending triangle breakout, as seen in the above chart. That pattern represents a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change. Further, the pair has found acceptance above the 50-candle EMA. What's more, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.30 percent gain at press time. Put simply, stock markets are likely to trade on the offensive while heading into the weekend. As a result, the anti-risk JPY will likely remain offered. It is worth noting that the long-term outlook remains bearish while the pair is held below the former support-turned-resistance of the 100-day MA, currently located above 112.00.Trend: Bullish USD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 109.35
    Today Daily change: 10 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.101%
    Today Daily Open: 109.24
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.33
    Daily SMA50: 111.62
    Daily SMA100: 112.07
    Daily SMA200: 111.18
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 109.41
    Previous Daily Low: 108.68
    Previous Weekly High: 109.09
    Previous Weekly Low: 107.77
    Previous Monthly High: 113.83
    Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.13
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 108.96
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 108.81
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 108.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 108.08
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.54
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.84
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.27  

As reported by Reuters, Japanese core inflation remains trapped near frustratingly low levels, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seemingly no closer to the

As reported by Reuters, Japanese core inflation remains trapped near frustratingly low levels, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) seemingly no closer to their lofty 2% inflation target.Key quotesThe data comes ahead of the Bank of Japan’s rate review next week, where the nine-member board is seen cutting its price forecasts and warning of heightening global uncertainties.  Some analysts say core consumer inflation may grind to a halt in coming months as recent oil price falls push down gas and electricity bills, which could put the BOJ under pressure to ramp up an already massive stimulus program. “Even discounting the oil effect, consumer inflation is weak. That’s because the current economic recovery is driven by the corporate sector and the benefits aren’t passed on much to households,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. “Consumption isn’t strong enough to convince companies they can raise prices,” he said, adding that core consumer inflation may approach zero percent around April.

The turmoil in the financial markets and the economic slowdown will likely force the US and China towards a trade deal, according to Australia and New

The turmoil in the financial markets and the economic slowdown will likely force the US and China towards a trade deal, according to Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group. Trump kicked off a trade war with China in the second quarter of 2018. Since then, both parties have imposed tit-for-tat import tariffs on each other, leading to market instability and heightened fears of a global growth slowdown.Key points (source: ANZ) The signs out of the recent trade talks in China are promising and have boosted market optimism, despite the lack of concrete outcomes. The downside is that commodity markets could feel renewed pressure if a happy middle ground isn't found.

AUD/JPY is trading into 78.75 after spending most of the week trading flatly just above 78.00, bolstered by rumours that the US would be seeking to ea

Aussie getting some support from US tariff rumours which were almost instantly deflated.With nothing else to go on, markets are choosing to keep bidding on tariff headlines.AUD/JPY is trading into 78.75 after spending most of the week trading flatly just above 78.00, bolstered by rumours that the US would be seeking to ease some tariffs on China. The US was quick to release a statement walking back the rumour-driven headlines, but Pacific-sector investors are opting to continue bidding the positive news, as it is the only positive development surrounding US-China trade difficulties in what seems like months. With the Aussie remaining fully at the mercy of China data and trade, market sentiment is relying solely on rumours and hope to keep markets pointed higher to cap off the week.AUD/JPY Technical LevelsAUD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 78.72
    Today Daily change: 9 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.127%
    Today Daily Open: 78.62
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 77.67
    Daily SMA50: 80.2
    Daily SMA100: 80.39
    Daily SMA200: 81.36
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 78.98
    Previous Daily Low: 77.76
    Previous Weekly High: 78.36
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.02
    Previous Monthly High: 84.05
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.51
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.23
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 77.92
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 77.23
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 76.7
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 79.14
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 79.67
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 80.36  

Gold's 50-day moving average (MA) crossed the 200-day MA from below earlier this week, confirming the golden crossover - a long-term bullish indicator

Gold's 50-day moving average (MA) crossed the 200-day MA from below earlier this week, confirming the golden crossover - a long-term bullish indicator. So far, however, the golden crossover hasn't impressed the bulls. The yellow metal continues to trade in a narrowing price above $1,20. More importantly, a break above $1,300 will likely remain elusive, as the golden crossover is the result of the metal's 90-degree rally from the low of $1,196 seen on Nov. 13. Put simply, the bulls may have run out of steam. In fact, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has rolled over from the overbought territory and has breached the rising trendline. As a result, a price pullback could be in the offing.Daily chartTrend: pullback likely XAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1291.3
    Today Daily change: -59 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.0457%
    Today Daily Open: 1291.89
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1282.63
    Daily SMA50: 1251.02
    Daily SMA100: 1232.26
    Daily SMA200: 1228.87
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1295.45
    Previous Daily Low: 1288.95
    Previous Weekly High: 1297.15
    Previous Weekly Low: 1279.35
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1291.43
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1292.97
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1288.74
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1285.6
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1282.24
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1295.24
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1298.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1301.74  

In their latest client note, analysts at Nomura offer a bullish outlook on the EUR/USD pair. Key Quotes: “Seems likely the euro has priced in much o

In their latest client note, analysts at Nomura offer a bullish outlook on the EUR/USD pair.Key Quotes:“Seems likely the euro has priced in much of its relative growth weakness against the USD. Remember the investment adage 'buy low, sell high', it would be now in reference to the Euro area growth cycle. The worst of the EUR negative data has already been released.” 

The USD/CNH pair is trapped between the 50- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs), currently at 6.7726 and 6.7897, respectively. Reports hit the wires y

USD/CNH (offshore yuan) is trading the narrow range defined by the 50- and 200-hour MAs.Risk-on could push the pair above the 200-hour MA.The USD/CNH pair is trapped between the 50- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs), currently at 6.7726 and 6.7897, respectively. Reports hit the wires yesterday that the US is considering reducing or lifting tariffs on China with an aim to win China's support for long-term reforms. In response, stocks picked up a bid, helping USD/CNH defend the 50-hour MA. More importantly, the futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.28 percent gain, that is, the risk assets are likely to remain bid. Therefore, USD/CNH risks penetrating the 200-hour MA hurdle. That would boost the prospects of a stronger recovery rally. After all, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is reporting oversold conditions. As of writing, the pair is trading at 6.7830.USD/CNH Technical LevelsUSD/CNH Overview:
    Today Last Price: 6.7842
    Today Daily change: 112 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.165%
    Today Daily Open: 6.773
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 6.8434
    Daily SMA50: 6.8862
    Daily SMA100: 6.8915
    Daily SMA200: 6.7286
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 6.7941
    Previous Daily Low: 6.7534
    Previous Weekly High: 6.8687
    Previous Weekly Low: 6.7376
    Previous Monthly High: 6.9509
    Previous Monthly Low: 6.826
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.7786
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.7689
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.7529
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.7328
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.7122
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.7936
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.8142
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.8343  

Livesquawk reports the latest comments by the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, as he said that the Japanese government is making changes to budget

Livesquawk reports the latest comments by the Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, as he said that the Japanese government is making changes to budget due to the wages issue. No further details are unveiled on the same.

According to reporting by Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is apparently a big fan of easing tariffs on China, while US Trade Representati

According to reporting by Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is apparently a big fan of easing tariffs on China, while US Trade Representative Lighthizer is far cooler on the idea.Key quotesNeither Mnuchin nor Lighthizer has made any recommendations with respect to tariffs or other parts of the negotiations with China, according to a Treasury spokesperson working with the administration’s trade team who characterized the talks as an ongoing process. Stocks initially surged after the report, before paring gains after the Treasury’s denial was published. The report comes after China confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington at month-end for a new round of trade talks. President Donald Trump has pledged to hike tariffs on Chinese goods if the two sides can’t negotiate a sweeping trade deal by March 1.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that it made downward revisions to the Chinese growth numbers for the year 2017. Key Details:

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced that it made downward revisions to the Chinese growth numbers for the year 2017.Key Details:China revises 2017 GDP growth down to 6.8% y/y from previous recorded 6.9%. China revises 2017 GDP to CNY 82.1 trillion.

The EUR/JPY pair is fast approaching 124.75 - the upper edge of the descending broadening channel seen in the 4-hour chart. As of writing, it is tradi

The EUR/JPY pair is fast approaching 124.75 - the upper edge of the descending broadening channel seen in the 4-hour chart. As of writing, it is trading at 124.63.4-hour chartThe descending channel breakout, if confirmed, would signal a continuation of the rally from the monthly lows near 120.00.Hourly chartThe bull breakout is more likely to happen than not, as the pair has reclaimed major averages (50, 100, and 200) on the hourly chart. Further, the 5- and 10-day EMAs are beginning to curl upwards. On the downside, 123.99 (low of Tuesday's Doji candle) is the level to bet for the bears.Trend: bullish EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 124.62
    Today Daily change: 18 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.145%
    Today Daily Open: 124.44
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 124.95
    Daily SMA50: 127.07
    Daily SMA100: 128.49
    Daily SMA200: 129.04
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 124.68
    Previous Daily Low: 123.74
    Previous Weekly High: 125.1
    Previous Weekly Low: 123.4
    Previous Monthly High: 129.3
    Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 124.32
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 124.1
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 123.89
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 123.34
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 122.94
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 124.84
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.24
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 125.79  

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans was on the wires earlier today, speaking about the US economy, Fed rate hike outlook and the US-China

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans was on the wires earlier today, speaking about the US economy, Fed rate hike outlook and the US-China trade spat in an interview with Bloomberg TV.Main Headlines:Fed can easily be patient now, in a good position. Fed well positioned to assess data as it comes in. Slower Europe, China growth, tariffs all factors. Outlooks are for continued above-trend growth but some slowdown. We are at a good point to pause. Not worried about inflation getting out of hand. Dot plot forecast for 2 rate hikes is plausible but there could be fewer.  Think China has definitely turned softer. The longer the government shut down last the more problems it causes, it’s not good for the economic outlook.

GBP/JPY got a much-needed boost on Thursday, driving higher and pinning into 142.25 before settling just below 142.00. The Guppy is trading on the ups

Guppy looking healthy to cap off the week, bidding into the high end for Friday. Challenging the 142.00 handle has the Guppy challenging a four-week high. GBP/JPY got a much-needed boost on Thursday, driving higher and pinning into 142.25 before settling just below 142.00. The Guppy is trading on the upside to kick off Friday's action, testing above 141.90 as market sentiment in the early Asian market session takes a step higher. This week's Brexit vote took the Guppy into a low of 137.35, but market sentiment towards the GBP recovered rapidly after PM May's Brexit deal failed in spectacular fashion, sending the GBP/JPY back up the charts through the midweek. Friday brings Retail Salest for the UK, dropping at 09:30 GMT with the headline annualized figure expected to hold steady around 3.6% for the year into December.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsGBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 141.93
    Today Daily change: 5 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.0352%
    Today Daily Open: 141.88
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 139.39
    Daily SMA50: 142.33
    Daily SMA100: 144.49
    Daily SMA200: 145.6
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 142.22
    Previous Daily Low: 139.51
    Previous Weekly High: 139.49
    Previous Weekly Low: 137.44
    Previous Monthly High: 145.52
    Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.19
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 140.55
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.18
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 138.49
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 137.47
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 142.9
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 143.92
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 145.61  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7665 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7592.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7665 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7592.

According to poll results from Reuters, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen holding off even further from rate hikes, with newed evidence of econo

According to poll results from Reuters, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen holding off even further from rate hikes, with newed evidence of economic recession expected to keep the ECB pushed back.Key quotesReuters polls since June 2018 have predicted that after ending its asset-purchase program in December, the ECB would follow with a rate rise in the third quarter of 2019, in line with the ECB’s guidance. But a barrage of weak data - including news that Europe’s top economy, Germany, barely skirted a recession in the second half of last year - suggests growth has slowed, persuading economists to push forward that long-held forecast. They also slashed their growth outlook for Germany, France and Italy compared with an October poll. The ECB is now expected to raise its deposit rate, currently at -0.40 percent, to -0.20 percent in the fourth quarter and wait until early 2020 to raise its refinancing rate from zero to 0.20 percent. More than a third of economists polled gave a 40 percent chance or more of a recession. And on a like-for-like basis, out of 36 common contributors in January and December, nearly two-thirds raised their two-year recession probability. Ten kept it at the same level. Only three lowered it. The chance of a recession this year also rose to 25 percent from 20 percent in December.

USD/JPY started off the day overnight down at 108.68 and went on to score a NY session high of 109.40 following speculation that the Sino/US trade spa

USD/JPY is better bid in Tokyo on Friday, rallying on the open from 109.12 to a high of 109.33 so far. USD/JPY got a risk-on boost on Wall Street, with benchmarks in the green and US yields rising. USD/JPY started off the day overnight down at 108.68 and went on to score a NY session high of 109.40 following speculation that the Sino/US trade spat was about to be resolved due to headlines that Treasury Sec. Mnuchin was in favour of lifting the tariffs in a bid to calm markets and ease tensions with Beijing.  However, there were conflicting headlines reporting that the Treasury said there were no recommendations made on tariffs.  And then, coupled with heightened tensions over the arrest of Huaweii CFO Meng and China's retaliation two Canadians arrested as a consequence, risks are far more skewed towards prolonged trade wars than a finding a resolution to them anytime soon. US stocks end in the greenElsewhere, data releases were scant but the rebound in the January Phili Fed index provided the US stock market with some support. The DJIA erased an earlier loss, ended higher by 102 points, or 0.4%, at 24,309. The S&P 500 index added 12 points, or 0.5%, to 2,627 and the Nasdaq Composite finished 31 points higher, or by 0.5%, to 7,066.USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 108.65 108.30 107.90           Resistance levels: 109.40 109.85 110.10Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that the pair is has broken above the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily decline, also above the 100 SMA, which extended its decline to converge with the mentioned Fibonacci retracement at around 109.05: "Technical indicators in the mentioned chart hold within positive ground, although without clear upward momentum, easing modestly from their highs. As said on previous updates, the current 109.20 price zone is a strong static resistance that the pair needs to clearly surpass to be able to extend its gains, as it is the level in where the pair was trading ahead of December flash crash."
 

AUD/USD heads into Friday nailed to the 0.7190 figure, bolstered at the tail end of Thursday's US session by trade war headlines, but ultimately remai

The Aussie continues to trade flatly near familiar levels as markets await trade headlines.The US could consider lifting tariffs on China, but details remain thin.AUD/USD heads into Friday nailed to the 0.7190 figure, bolstered at the tail end of Thursday's US session by trade war headlines, but ultimately remaining firmly entrenched in consolidation near the 0.7200 major level. Headlines suggested that the US may be set to lift some tariffs on China, helping to prop up the Aussie briefly and sending the pair into 0.7220, but until action is seen on the trade war front AUD/USD is set to continue spinning in place for the foreseeable future. Little of note remains on the economic docket for the Aussie, though traders will be getting set for next week's employment reports, far off on the horizon for next Thursday.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7186
    Today Daily change: -10 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.153%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7197
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7105
    Daily SMA50: 0.7184
    Daily SMA100: 0.7172
    Daily SMA200: 0.732
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7222
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7146
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7236
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7089
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7193
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7175
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7155
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7079
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7231
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7264
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7307  

The Chinese stimulus is a two-sided coin, one one hand it can be seen as a desperate measure, on the other, a relief near-term for investors which had

Forex today was mixed, with weakness in the CNH sending a flight to the greenback which weighed on the EM-FX and high-beta currencies. The Chinese stimulus is a two-sided coin, one one hand it can be seen as a desperate measure, on the other, a relief near-term for investors which had helped risk sentiment and FX along, supporting the antipodeans and high beta FX. However, the relationship between the US and China is fragile and reports that federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into China’s Huawei Technologies Co. for allegedly stealing trade secrets from American corporations that it does business with is concerning.  Meanwhile, rates were slightly higher in US Treasuries following healthy jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed numbers which were a supporting factor for the greenback, weighing on the euro which fell on a dovish ECB outlook. Currency actionEUR/USD dropped to 1.1369, piercing the 50-D SMA located at 1.1386 with 1.1350 sighted as a key support level that if breached opens prolonged risks to the downside as markets await the ECB next week. Cable was popping higher again, albeit there are limited prospects for higher until a breakthrough in a hung UK parliament is achieved while Brexit remains very much up in the air. GBP/USD climbed 1.2975 within a New York range of between 1.2975-1.2883. USD/JPY was supported by strong US data and higher yields aided slightly by a hawkish Fed Quarles and an ambiguously strong GBP/JPY cross. USD/JPY climbed from 108.68 to a high of 109.40, ending NY at 109.24. AUD/USD surged on news that the Whitehouse is considering lifting tariffs noise - Treasury Sec. Mnuchin is in favour of lifting the tariffs, while trade representative Lighthizer is not. However, the fact that the US is investigating Chinese tech giant Huawei for stealing trade secrets from US business partners should be a weight on trade truce prospects. AUD/USD was bid from 0.7151 to a high of 0.7221 where it was quickly faded for a NY close of  0.7192.Key notes from US sessionWall Street clutching to trade war truce glimmers of hope, stocks end in the green

Japan Foreign bond investment up to ¥2209.9B in January 11 from previous ¥-1004.3B

Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks down to ¥-428.2B in January 11 from previous ¥-248.5B

Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) remains unchanged at 0.3% in December

Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) below expectations (0.8%) in December: Actual (0.7%)

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) declined to 0.3% in December from previous 0.8%

NZD/USD dropped from a high of 0.6848 to a low of 0.6727 following a surge in the greenback on the 14th January. In recent sessions, we have also seen

NZD/USD has been pressing on with an improvement in risk sentiment for the North American session.NZD/USD rallied from a low of 0.6727 to a high of 0.6785 and closed New York at 0.6761. The price action has not dented the bearish technical outlook. NZD/USD dropped from a high of 0.6848 to a low of 0.6727 following a surge in the greenback on the 14th January. In recent sessions, we have also seen investors move to the sidelines and seek out safe havens as the threat of Chinese contagion echoes throughout the markets following a poor series of data releases. However, the Chinese verbal intervention and subsequent record stimulus measures lifted spirits, although the PBOC liquidity injections could be seen as an act of desperation.  "NZD continued to push lower as the focus turns towards next week’s Q4 CPI release (which looks set to flat-line) and the odds of an eventual OCR cut. A weak PMI reading today would add to the recent string of softening forward-looking indicators. And with ongoing global growth concerns at the fore, conditions appear set to remain challenging for kiwi," analysts at ANZ Bank argued. NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6650  Resistance 0.6860 The price was rejected the 200-hr SMA and the doji formed on the 14th Jan has played out with the price closing in the red yet again, well placed below 0.68 the figure. The 50% Fibo is located at 0.6929 but it appears we are now looking at the 21-D SMA where price pierced today at 0.6741 with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low and a break below there will open up 0.6705. A break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6686 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo.

DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). DXY is testing the 96.00 level

DXY daily chartThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). DXY is testing the 96.00 level and the 100 SMA.DXY 4-hour chartDXY is testing the 100 SMA. DXY 30-minute chartDXY is trading below the 50 SMA and is set to break below the 96.00 support. A break of the support would lead to 95.70. 96.30 is seen as resistance. Additional key levelsDollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.09
    Today Daily change: -1 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.0208%
    Today Daily Open: 96.11
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.24
    Daily SMA50: 96.66
    Daily SMA100: 96.03
    Daily SMA200: 94.95
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.18
    Previous Daily Low: 95.85
    Previous Weekly High: 96.12
    Previous Weekly Low: 95.03
    Previous Monthly High: 97.71
    Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.05
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 95.98
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 95.91
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 95.72
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.58
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.24
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.38
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.57  
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