CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

EUR/GBP trims early-Asian losses while picking up the bids near 0.9080/85 during the pre-European trading on Tuesday. The cross took a U-turn from 61.

EUR/GBP keeps late-Monday pullback from a three-week low.A confluence of 100-bar EMA, falling trend line from Wednesday question recovery moves.Sellers eye August-end tops below the key Fibonacci retracement level.EUR/GBP trims early-Asian losses while picking up the bids near 0.9080/85 during the pre-European trading on Tuesday. The cross took a U-turn from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 03-11 upside the previous day. Though, bearish MACD and nearness to the key 0.9120 resistance joint, including a falling trend line from September 23 and 100-bar EMA, can continue challenging the bulls. In a case where the buyers manage to cross the 0.9120 upside barrier, another downward sloping trend line, from September 11, at 0.9180 now, will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, EUR/GBP bears are less likely to take entries unless witnessing a clear downside break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around 0.9030. In doing so, the 0.9000 psychological magnet may offer an intermediate halt during the fall to the August 31 high of 0.8966 and then to the monthly bottom surrounding 0.8865. EUR/GBP four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 29: Stock markets remain cautiously optimistic and the dollar is on the back foot, extending the r

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 29: Stock markets remain cautiously optimistic and the dollar is on the back foot, extending the reversal from last week's moves. Investors are eyeing a slew of Federal Reserve speeches, fresh hopes related to Brexit, and the first presidential debate.The dollar is edging lower in a risk-on mood. Talks between Republicans and Democrats continue in Washington, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi offering a new deal worth $2.2 trillion. The fresh hopes replace the narrative that the focus on nominating a new Supreme Court Justice would divert energy from further relief.Gold has been consolidating around $1,880, looking for a new direction.  Investors – especially pound bulls – are also content with reports of some progress in Brexit trade talks. The EU is reportedly ready to work on a legal agreement.  Reported coronavirus deaths have hit the grim milestone of one million, with cases increasing quickly in Europe and resuming their rises in the US. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, expressed concerns about the impact of the virus on the economy. Preliminary German and Spanish inflation figures for September are due out on Tuesday.  The economic calendar features a long list of Federal Reserve speakers, with Vice-Chair Richard Clarida standing out. The Fed encouraged the government to provide more fiscal relief and does not plan to increase QE at this point.  The Conference Board's Confidence Confidence gauge for September is set to extend its recovery. See US Conference Board Consumer Confidence September Preview:  Neither happy nor sad President Donald Trump and Democrat rival Joe Biden are scheduled to clash in the first presidential debate late in the day. The incumbent is the underdog in the polls but the challenger is considered a worse debater. The narrative emerging from the event may move markets. Investors are concerned about the specter of an inconclusive election. See 2020 Elections: How stocks, gold, dollar could move in four scenarios, nightmare one includedOil prices have been stable with WTI trading around the $40 mark. Cryptocurrencies are edging lower in well-known ranges. Bitcoin is changing hands at around $10,700.

Asian equities fizzle upside momentum as Beijing’s failures to comply with the trade deal probe the early-day risk-on mood before the European traders

Asian shares refrain from tracking Wall Street gains as mixed headlines from China probe the bulls.China bought only one-third of promised US goods through August, cites Yuan's strength as export negative.US House Democrats unveil plans to break the stimulus deadlock, EU also eased Brexit stance ahead of today’s key talks.First round of American Presidential Election debate, negotiations in Brussels will be crucial.Asian equities fizzle upside momentum as Beijing’s failures to comply with the trade deal probe the early-day risk-on mood before the European traders kick-start Tuesday’s work. While portraying the same, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan marks 0.30% intraday gains whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 also adds around 0.35% to 23,595 by the time of the press. Not only the dragon nation’s failures to comply with the trade deal but comments in the China Daily, criticizing the Trump administration’s “Sinophobic policies”, also flash the risk of a trade war between the US and China. Additionally, downbeat statements from Chinese Cabinet adviser Kevin Yao also weigh on the Asia-Pacific shares. As a result, stocks in Hong Kong and New Zealand are mildly offered whereas Chinese equities seesaw with small gains/losses. Further to note is the World Bank's forecast of Asian GDP for 2020 that highlights the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic as a reason for the weakest prediction in five years. South Korea’s KOSPI cheers recovery in Industrial Output numbers with near 1.0% rise while India’s BSE Sensex and Indonesia’s IDX Composite are up 0.40% as we write. Although downbeat comments from China weigh on the risk-tone sentiment, hopes of further stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US government joins Brexit-positive headlines to please the market bulls. As a result, American stock futures are near 0.50% up whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 0.66%. It’s worth mentioning that Wall Street benefited from a run-up in the bank shares during the previous day. Looking forward, market players will be keen on listening to the first round US Presidential Election debate. Also up in the traders’ radar are Brexit headlines from Brussels and any comments from a slew of Fed speakers up for comments during today’s North American session. While the early signals are positive to the risks, Brexit and the coronavirus (COVID-19) news may probe the optimists.

FX option expiries for Sept 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1600 512m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 1

FX option expiries for Sept 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1600 512m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts          104.75 376m 105.00 2.6bn 105.10 375m 105.30 685m 105.32 444m 105.35 404m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts  0.6580 343m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.9155 571m

Advisers to China’s Cabinet expressed their view on the exchange rate value and the measures to effectively combat the coronavirus pandemic induced im

Advisers to China’s Cabinet expressed their view on the exchange rate value and the measures to effectively combat the coronavirus pandemic induced impact on the economy. Cabinet adviser Kevin Yao said that “yuan appreciation could weaken China's export competitiveness,” adding that the foreign exchange reserves will not rise as fast as before and that the foreign trade will be more balanced.   more to come ...

USD/CHF seesaws around intraday low, currently down 0.05% on a day near 0.9240, while heading into Tuesday’s European session. The pair took a U-turn

USD/CHF extends Monday’s downbeat performance to probe the three-day lows.Bearish MACD favors sellers targeting seven-week-old horizontal support.Ascending trend line from September 08 can question the bulls beyond the monthly top.USD/CHF seesaws around intraday low, currently down 0.05% on a day near 0.9240, while heading into Tuesday’s European session. The pair took a U-turn from over two months’ high on Friday and fell since then. With the recent declines taking clues from the MACD histogram, the quote is likely to weaken further towards an area comprising highs marked since August 12, close to 0.9200. If at all the bears refrain from stepping back from 0.9200, August 20 top near 0.9160 and September 17 peak close to 0.9140 may get the market attention. Meanwhile, 0.9250 and 0.9280 can offer immediate resistance to the pair ahead of fueling it to the monthly peak of 0.9296. Though, a three-week-old rising trend line, at 0.9310 now, can question the USD/CHF bulls beyond the 0.9300 mark. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

EUR/USD is consolidating the recent corrective advance towards 1.1700, as the US dollar attempts a comeback across the board, despite the risk-on mark

EUR/USD consolidates the corrective bounce below 1.1700President Lagarde indicated the ECB will deploy further stimulus if needed.Eurozone/ US Consumer Confidence data, Fedspeak in focus. EUR/USD is consolidating the recent corrective advance towards 1.1700, as the US dollar attempts a comeback across the board, despite the risk-on market mood. At the time of writing, the main currency pair adds 0.10% to trade at 1.1675, having hit a daily high of 1.1684. The spot hit a two-month low of 1.1625 last Friday. EUR/USD’s correction from two-month lows gained traction on Monday after the upbeat risk tone on the global equities curbed the US dollar’s recent ascent. The haven demand for the greenback weakened after the weekend’s solid Chinese Industrial Profits data suggested a robust economic recovery in the world’s second-biggest economy and lifted the overall market mood. The optimism extended into the US equities alongside the hopes of a US fiscal stimulus deal. On the EUR-side of the story, the shared currency received a boost from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s comments, as she indicated that the central bank stands ready to deploy additional stimulus, if necessary, to support the post-coronavirus pandemic economic turnaround. Looking ahead, the upside potential in the spot appears limited, as the bearish bets in the dollar remain at almost a decade high and a likely short-squeeze could revive the bullish momentum in the greenback. In the meantime, markets look forward to the Confidence numbers from both continents, Fedspeak and the first US Presidential debate for fresh trading impulse in the pair.

GBP/USD keeps buyers hopeful, despite the US dollar’s recent recoveries, while taking rounds to 1.2860 during the pre-London open trading on Tuesday.

GBP/USD keeps bounces off 1.2836 to print a two-day winning streak.EU steps back from threats to drop trade and security talks, shows readiness to prepare a joint legal agreement.UK’s Gove refrains from entertaining the bloc’s demand over IMB, BOE’s Ramsden rules out negative rates.Brexit talks in Brussels will be up till Friday, BOE’s Carney, US Presidential Election and Fedspeak also becomes important.GBP/USD keeps buyers hopeful, despite the US dollar’s recent recoveries, while taking rounds to 1.2860 during the pre-London open trading on Tuesday. In doing so, the Cable extends the previous day’s gains, mainly due to the Brexit-positive headlines, but stays challenged ahead of the crucial departure talks in Brussels. With headlines from The Times suggesting the European Union’s (EU) softer stand on Brexit, Pound bulls could ignore The Financial Times (FT) news suggesting hardships for UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak. The bloc not only shows readiness to alter the legal statement, while taking clues from Britain, but also drops the previous tone of warnings. The news also ignores the UK Cabinet Minister Michel Gove’s rejection to remove the clauses in the Internal Market Bill (IMB) that confront the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement (WAB). On the other hand, the FT piece relies on the comments from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) that highlight the risk of failing on the Tory manifesto promises without raising taxes or huge borrowing. It should be noted that the BOE’s Deputy Governor Sir Dave Ramsden mentioned, as per Reuters, “At present, negative policy rates would be less effective as a tool to stimulate the economy." Should the BOE Governor, Andrew Bailey, drop his recently bearish bias at the Chief Executives’ Club at Queen’s, GBP/USD bulls will have an additional reason to cheer. Positives aren’t only confined to the UK as the US Democrats’ readiness to alter the demands over the coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package also favor the market’s risk-tone sentiment and helps the US dollar index (USDX) to recover Monday’s losses. Looking forward, the Brexit teams of the UK and the EU, led by David Frost and Michael Barmier respectively, will meet in Brussels today. The departure negotiations were last stuck over the IMB and hence the same will become an important issue. However, talks concerning fisheries, level playing field also can trigger the British anger the call back the guys, which in turn will harm the GBP/USD prices. It’s worth mentioning that the first round of US President Election debate is likely to use American President Donald Trump’s tax payments as a fresh issue and may challenge the US dollar run-up. Additionally, a slew of the second-tier Fed policymakers are also up for speaking and may entertain the momentum traders. Technical analysis The pair’s ability to cross the 100-day EMA, currently near 1.2830, directs the bulls towards 1.2910/20 resistance confluence comprising 21-day and 50-day EMA.  

Gold (XAU/USD) started out the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) week on a solid footing, rallying nearly $20 on Monday. The metal bounced-off the SMA100 one

Gold (XAU/USD) started out the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) week on a solid footing, rallying nearly $20 on Monday. The metal bounced-off the SMA100 one-day support for the third straight day, courtesy of the broad retreat in the US dollar from two-month peaks. The risk-on mood returned amid upbeat Chinese Industrial Profits data, lifting the sentiment on the global markets at the expense of the safe-haven greenback. Further, hopes of the US Congress reaching a fiscal stimulus deal also added to the broader market optimism.     Attention now turns towards a slew of speeches by the Fed policymakers, US Consumer Confidence data and the first US Presidential election debate for fresh cues on the prices. Meanwhile, let’s see how gold is positioned technically. Gold: Key resistances and supports Following the corrective move higher, the Technical Confluences Indicator suggests that Gold faces immediate fierce resistance at $1889, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week and Bollinger Band 15-minutes Upper. Buyers will then look to takeout the next hurdle at $1894, the intersection of the pivot point one-day R1 and Bollinger Band one-hour Upper. A sharp rally towards the $1905 barrier will get fuelled, which is the pivot point one-day R2. To the downside, significant support at $1875 could likely limit the pullbacks. At that level, the SMA5 one-day coincides with the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day. Further down, a bunch of minor support levels will slow the declines before the bullion reaches the critical cushion at $1863, which is the convergence of the previous month low, Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and pivot point one-month S1. Here is how it looks on the tool About Confluence Detector The TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.Learn more about Technical Confluence
 

EUR/JPY registers a little movement while taking rounds to the intraday high of 123.17 during early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair confronts 50-bar SM

EUR/JPY buyers attack 50-bar SMA after bouncing off the lowest since July 20.Short-term horizontal resistance, a falling trend line from September 10 adds to the upside barriers.Normal RSI conditions favor further recovery but bulls are probed by the key upside barriers.Sellers may look for entries below the monthly low.EUR/JPY registers a little movement while taking rounds to the intraday high of 123.17 during early Tuesday. In doing so, the pair confronts 50-bar SMA amid normal RSI conditions. Considering Monday’s U-turn from the multi-day low, EUR/JPY buyers are likely to cross the immediate SMA resistance around 123.15/20. Though, a horizontal area since September 17, near 123.25/35, followed by a 13-day-old descending trend line, currently around 123.50, will probe the bulls afterward. In a case where EUR/JPY manages to cross 123.50, it’s the run-up to September 18 high close to 124.30 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, the 123.0 threshold and 122.60 may offer nearby supports to the pair during its fresh downside. It should, however, be noted that the sellers will remain cautious unless witnessing a fresh monthly low under 122.37. In doing so, the early July high near 122.00 could be on their radars. EUR/JPY four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) October 6 monetary policy meeting, analysts at Citigroup believe that the Australian central bank will

Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) October 6 monetary policy meeting, analysts at Citigroup believe that the Australian central bank will likely keep the policy steady while dismissing the negative interest rates talks. Key quotes “RBA is in wait and see mode.” “RBA is comfortable for now with the current level of monetary stimulus.” “Negative rates pretty much ruled out.” “We don't see a negative for the currency from a central bank perspective for now.”  “Risks to AUD are fat tailed: Second wave risks,  Health disappointment,  US election, Particular worry placed on the evolution of US/China relations and its relation to the presidential election.”

G20 Energy Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to "ensure that the energy sector continues to make a full, effective contribution to overcoming COVI

G20 Energy Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to "ensure that the energy sector continues to make a full, effective contribution to overcoming COVID-19" pandemic, the statement highlighted, which was released following the conclusion of their two-day virtual meeting, Additional highlights “Recognize actions by both producers and consumers to stabilize energy markets.”  Emphasize the importance of stimulus packages to stimulate inclusive economic activities.” “Will continue to work together to create the conditions for sustained capital investments, including bolstering investments in innovation and a skilled work force.”Market reaction Despite the upbeat statement from the G20 meeting, oil bulls failed to take advantage, as both crude benchmarks return to the red in Asia this Monday. WTI trades at $40.33, down 0.67% on the day. WTI slips below $40.50 amid US dollar recovery, API data eyed

“East Asia and Pacific region seen at 0.9% in 2020, its lowest rate since 1967, due to impact from the COVID-19 pandemic.” “China is expected to grow

“East Asia and Pacific region seen at 0.9% in 2020, its lowest rate since 1967, due to impact from the COVID-19 pandemic.” “China is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2020, while rest of East Asia and Pacific region is projected to contract by 3.5%.“ 'Triple shock' in developing East Asia and Pacific region from the pandemic, as well as the economic impact of containment measures and global recession.” “It sees an increase of as many as 38 million people in poverty in the region in 2020.”   developing story ...

AUD/USD stalls its corrective bounce just shy of the 0.71 barrier, as the bulls take a breather before the next push higher. The spot is now consolida

AUD/USD faces rejection just shy of the 0.7100 level. Hourly RSI remains in bullish territory. Bulls to retain control while above critical support at 0.7065.AUD/USD stalls its corrective bounce just shy of the 0.71 barrier, as the bulls take a breather before the next push higher. The spot is now consolidating the gains, holding above the critical support at 0.7065, as observed in the hourly chart. That level is the confluence of the rising trendline support, 21 and 100-hourly Simple Moving Averages (HMA). A breach of the last could call for a test of the horizontal 50-HMA at 0.7053. A daily closing below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (DMA) at 0.7018 is needed to revive the downside momentum. Alternatively, acceptance above 0.7100 could trigger a fresh rally towards the downward-sloping 200-HMA at 0.7166. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat (at 59.26) but holds well above the midline, allowing for an additional bounce. AUD/USD: Hourly chart AUD/USD: Additional levels  

WTI bounces off the day’s low of $40.31 to $40.422, down 0.60% intraday, during early Tuesday. The black gold recently dropped after the US dollar (US

WTI refreshed the intraday low after reversing from $40.79.US dollar regains upside momentum amid hopes of further stimulus.Challenges to the US-China trade deal add downside pressure on oil prices.API data, USD moves become the key amid a light calendar.WTI bounces off the day’s low of $40.31 to $40.422, down 0.60% intraday, during early Tuesday. The black gold recently dropped after the US dollar (USD) started recovering the previous day’s losses. Also on the negative side could be downbeat news from China and USD positive updates from American. Having marked the biggest losses in one month, the US dollar index (DXY) bounces off September 23 low to 94.22 by the time of the press. Given the inverse correlation between commodities and the greenback, the latest moves by the US currency weigh on the WTI crude oil. The US dollar gains could be attributed to the news suggesting House Democrats’ readiness to alter the coronavirus (COVID-19) aid package demands. Further, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) came out with the news that points towards further hardships for the Sino-American trade deal. The reason is Beijing’s ability to purchase not even one-third of the agreed US goods through August. Also, challenging the US-China relations, which weigh on the energy demand, are comments from China Daily that said, “The Sinophobic policies of the United States are causing losses to China in the near term, but in the long run, China could benefit from them.  Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures gain 0.30% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific are also mildly positive. Moving on, oil traders will keep eyes on the greenback moves ahead of the weekly inventory data from a private provider, the American Petroleum Institute (API). Technical analysis Unless breaking $41.00 resistance, comprising 200-bar SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of WTI’s August-September downside, oil buyers are less likely to be convinced.  

A headline from the South China Morning Post (SCMP), published Tuesday’s early Asian session, suggests challenges to the global risk-on sentiment. The

A headline from the South China Morning Post (SCMP), published Tuesday’s early Asian session, suggests challenges to the global risk-on sentiment. The news relies on China’s imports of the US goods under the trade agreement between Washington and the dragon land to suggest further hardships for the market’s mood. Only one-third purchase? The news mentions that China has so far, through August, purchased nearly 33% of the previously agreed US goods. The latest customs data, as per the update, suggests a 25% hike in imports from America. “The agreement dictates that China’s purchases should be US$200 billion higher than 2017’s levels, and on those terms, China is still miles away,” mentions the SCMP piece. Reasons cited include the Trump administration’s anti-China moves, comprising sanctions on the cotton imports from Xinjiang. Other than the risk to the US-China trade deal, the piece also portrays the risks to US President Donald Trump ahead of the American elections while citing failures to keep promises of Chinese demand. Market sentiment stays positive… As the news can be considered as a continuous noise, S&P 500 Futures paid a little heed to the risk-challenging update. While doing so, the risk gauge prints 0.25% gains to 3,353 by the time of the press.

The following is a top-down analysis starting with the daily chart, moving in on the 4-hour and the 1-hour to identify where the opportunity might com

GBP/CAD has come up for air during the Asian session, with a move sparked by additional Brexit headlines. The price of oil is also coming off which adds fuel to the fire for CAD bears.The following is a top-down analysis starting with the daily chart, moving in on the 4-hour and the 1-hour to identify where the opportunity might come about.  “It is better to be prepared for an opportunity and not have one than to have an opportunity and not be prepared,” – Whitney M. Young Jr. Daily bias to the downside The overall trajectory is to the downside while below the marked resistance structure.  However, there could be some gas left in the bulls yet and the wick on the daily chart is significant, as explained on the 4-hour time frame just below. 4-hour prospects The daily wick is essentially a 4-hour correction to support.  This gives rise to an opportunity to fill-in the wick and would give the resistance a more meaningful test. 1-hour outlook The 1-hour chart offers the possibility of a break of the near term structure. On a retest of the structure, bulls can look to buy into what could be the next impulse to the 1.73 area. The set-up would be best suited on a 15-min time-frame with a buy limit at support accompanied by a stop loss below the 15-min support structure to protect against a failed trade setup. The setup will likely offer something in the region for 1 to 2 risk to reward ratio.  Breakeven would be the first course of action as soon as the price makes new support structure above the entry point where the stop loss will be moved to, factoring in the spread and or commissions.  Correlations reinforcing the bullish outlook Backing the bullish prospects are the following Brexit news and offers in oil, now down -67% on the day so far in WTI:WTI Price Analysis: Bears lining-up for the 'Kill Zone'

Silver trades near $23.70, up 0.20% intraday during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the white metal trades near a four-day high while probing the resi

Silver prices stay mildly positive above $23.50 after refreshing the highest level since last Wednesday.MACD seems to lose the bullish momentum, 200-HMA adds to the upside barriers.100-HMA can offer intermediate support before confirming the bearish chart pattern.Silver trades near $23.70, up 0.20% intraday during the early Tuesday. In doing so, the white metal trades near a four-day high while probing the resistance line of a bearish chart play, namely rising wedge. Although the commodity’s sustained trading beyond 100-HMA enables it to stay firm, receding strength of the MACD histogram may pullback the quote back towards the key moving average near $23.00. It should, however, be noted that the sellers will remain cautious unless silver prices slip beneath $22.85, comprising the support line of the stated wedge. Following that, the metal’s drop to the monthly low of $21.85 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, an upside clearance of $23.85 resistance will aim for a 200-HMA level of $24.56. Though, the $24.00 threshold may offer an intermediate halt during the rise. During the quotes’ further upside past-$24.56, the $25.00 round-figures and September 22 peak surrounding $25.20/25 will gain silver bulls’ attention. Silver hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

In its latest analysis, conveyed by Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. highlight risks to the traditional safe-havens, like gold and Japanese Yen, due to

In its latest analysis, conveyed by Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. highlight risks to the traditional safe-havens, like gold and Japanese Yen, due to the easy-money policies of most central banks. John Normand from the bank said, “Defensive assets are delivering their weakest performance and therefore worst hedge protection of any equity sell-off in at least a decade,” he said. “The wall of cash some hypothesize will inevitably flow into equity, credit and EM may remain very high indefinitely.” The bank also mentioned, “a portfolio of hedges like the yen versus all currencies, the dollar against emerging-market currencies and gold versus the greenback is still worth holding as these have delivered gains in 60% to 80% of major stock-market downturns.” Read: Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bulls catch a breather below $1,900

EUR/USD eases to 1.1675, up 0.10% on a day, during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the major currency pair steps back from the neckline of a sho

EUR/USD stays mildly positive above 200-bar SMA.Sustained trading beyond the key SMA favor buyers to confirm the bullish chart pattern.Fresh selling may wait for a clear downside break below 1.1600.EUR/USD eases to 1.1675, up 0.10% on a day, during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the major currency pair steps back from the neckline of a short-term head-and-shoulders bullish chart pattern. However, successful trading beyond 200-bar SMA, amid an absence of overbought RSI, keeps the buyers hopeful. Hence, fresh buying will take place on a clear break above 1.1680, which in turn will target 1.1750 theoretical aim with the September 23 top, near 1.1720, likely acting as an intermediate halt. In a case where EUR/USD prices remain strong past-1.1750, the 1.1800 threshold and September 21 top surrounding 1.1870/75 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, the pair’s downside below the 200-bar SMA level of 1.1660 may recall 1.1640 and 1.1610 immediate supports on the chart. Though, EUR/USD bears’ dominance past-1.1610 will need validation from 1.1600 to attack March 2020 top close to 1.1500. EUR/USD 30-minute chart Trend: Bullish  

PBOC Fixes Yuan Mid-Point Against The Dollar At 6.8171 (est 6.8133). More to come...

PBOC fixes Yuan Mid-Point against the US dollar At 6.8171 (est 6.8133). More to come...

One million people have died from Covid-19, official data from Johns Hopkins reports. Estimates suggest the virus may be among the world's top five ca

One million people have died from Covid-19, official data from Johns Hopkins reports.  Estimates suggest the virus may be among the world's top five causes of death as global cases are now at 33, 273, 720.  Global deaths are at 1,000,555 with both developed and emerging economies strive to contain the spread while the struggle to keep the global economic recovery on track plays on risk appetite in financial markets.  It has been almost 10 months after the virus first emerged and while there is still no vaccine, the only defence is still down to rapid testing and social distancing.     

S&P 500 Futures rises to 3,357.40, up 0.33% intraday, amid the initial hour of Tokyo open on Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer stays positive a

S&P 500 Futures print four-day winning streak, surge the most in three weeks the previous day.Brexit hopes, expectations of US stimulus keep trading sentiment positive.Light calendar restricts major moves ahead of EU-UK talks in Brussels, US Presidential Election debate also be the key.S&P 500 Futures rises to 3,357.40, up 0.33% intraday, amid the initial hour of Tokyo open on Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer stays positive after Monday’s upbeat performance amid risk-positive headlines from America and the European Union (EU). Also favoring the market sentiment could be hopes of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. With the US Democrats’ readiness to alter previous proposals, the deadlock over the much-awaited stimulus talks seems to break anytime. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently said, "We have been able to make critical additions and reduce the cost of the bill by shortening the time covered for now." On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is also pushing harder to not fall for any longer brakes on the aid package. In addition to the American Congress, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also signaling further stimulus. In her latest speech, the ECB President Christine Lagarde showed preparedness “ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate” to combat the COVID-19 resurgence that threatens an economic recovery from lockdowns. On the other hand, The Times came out with the news suggesting that the EU policymakers are ready to put their guns down and rewrite the legal agreement ahead of today’s ninth round of Brexit talks in Brussels. It should also be noted that stocks in Australia remain firm whereas Japan’s Nikkei bears the burden of downbeat inflation data. Elsewhere, the US 10-year Treasury yields also remain mostly sideways around 0.65%. Moving on, market players will keep eyes on a slew of Fed policymakers’ speeches up for crossing wires during the North American Session. Though, the first round of debate for the Presidential Election 2020 gains all the market attention.

USD/JPY is under pressure in the Tokyo open as the USD slides in what is a potential making of a significant correction to the downside in the DXY, as

USD/JPY is under pressure as the US dollar is broadly sold off across the board. DXY has been telegraphing a downside correction for a number of days. USD/JPY is under pressure in the Tokyo open as the USD slides in what is a potential making of a significant correction to the downside in the DXY, as forecasted in the prior analysis, here: USD/JPY Price Analysis: This could be the bull's last dance in the 105, eyes on 103.50sUSD/JPY bulls testing critical resistance to no availUSD/JPY bulls not convincing enough in test of resistanceDXY's 5-wave forecast playing out Fundamental updates Meanwhile, there has been a couple of domestic releases for the yen with the Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions.''It is appropriate for the bank to maintain the current monetary policy for the time being and, as before, take additional measures if necessary while closely monitoring the impact of COVID-19,'' the opinions stated. We also had the Consumer Price Index for Tokyo in September arrive at 0.2% year on year vs the 0.1% expected, far behind the Bank of Japans stubborn 2% national target. We will get the national data next month.  As for news from the European and US sessions,  there were some encouraging reports across both sessions relating to Brexit signs of progress and European stimulus from the European Central Bank's president, Lagarde who said the bank stands ready to act if needed.  US data was a touch encouraging with the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey rising to 13.6 in Sep (vs 9.5 estimate, 8.0 prior). ''The index has recovered after spending March-July in contraction mode when the region was affected by the pandemic and low oil prices,'' analysts at Westpac explained.  However, the heavy lifting was done on Wall Street's trading floors with US stocks jumping out of bed on the bid. Portfolio reshuffling and bargain buying were potentially in play due to quarter-end flow following a dismal month. The dollar has been negatively correlated to US stocks which could be partly to blame for today's extension in the correction.  USD/JPY technical analysis While below 106, a U-turn is expected towards 103.30/50.  

GBP/USD remains positive while rising to 1.2875, up 0.31% on a day, during Tuesday’s Asian session. The Cable recently benefited from news shared by T

GBPUSD stays firm after breaking 100-day EMA the previous day.EU policymakers show preparedness to work on legal agreement.A joint of 21-day and 50-day EMAs lures the pair buyers.61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the downside support.GBP/USD remains positive while rising to 1.2875, up 0.31% on a day, during Tuesday’s Asian session. The Cable recently benefited from news shared by The Times that suggests the European Union (EU) is softening the stand over Brexit talks. Read: GBP crosses catching a bid in Asia on Brexit hopes Other than the fundamentals, the pair’s ability to cross the 100-day EMA also directs the bulls towards 1.2910/20 resistance confluence comprising 21-day and 50-day EMA. Should GBP/USD buyers remain firm beyond 1.2920, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and the mid-month high around 1.3010 will be on their radars. On the contrary, a downside break of 100-day EMA, currently near 1.2830 may rest on 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-September upside by the Pound major, at 1.2721 now. In a case where the quote provides a daily closing below 1.2721, the early July tops near 1.2670 will be in the spotlight. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

There have been a series of news relating to Brexit and monetary policy to start the week which has been underpinning the pound. The latest news, repo

There have been a series of news relating to Brexit and monetary policy to start the week which has been underpinning the pound. The latest news, reported by the Times, states that the ''European negotiators have indicated for the first time that they are prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK, before fresh talks begin today.'' In a potentially significant move Brussels is understood to have dropped its demand for the two sides to reach a broad agreement on all the outstanding areas of dispute before drafting a final agreement. In the European session, there was an article written in the Financial Times that had reported on tentative signs of progress in trade talks as well. In other reports, the Bank of England and the EU's securities regulator have agreed on information-sharing arrangements necessary for EU banks to continue using clearing houses in London from January. Staying with the BoE's Deputy Governor Ramsden said the central bank is not about to use negative rates "imminently". Ramsden also explained that it is going to take time to do preparatory work and engage with banks and others on the issue. GBP/USD is higher by 0.33% in the session. More to come...

NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6560, up 0.08% intraday, during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The kiwi pair benefited from the broad US dollar weakness

NZD/USD directs the previous two days’ upward trajectory towards 0.6600.S&P 500 Futures prints a four-day winning streak after Monday’s biggest surge in three weeks.Hopes of breaking the US stimulus deadlock, virus vaccine gain momentum, a light calendar probes the bulls.The first debate of the American Presidential Election becomes important, comments from Fed speakers will also be followed closely.NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6560, up 0.08% intraday, during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The kiwi pair benefited from the broad US dollar weakness and risk recovery the previous day. Though, a lack of major data/events keeps the bulls chained ahead of crucial catalysts. US Congress progresses towards COVID-19 aid package talks… With the House Democrats’ readiness to compromise on the earlier demands concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus package, the halt to the American policymakers’ talks for the much-awaited aid is likely to be broken soon. The same joins the line of the European Central Bank (ECB) and British diplomats to keep the market’s risk-tone sentiment positive. Also favoring the NZD/USD bulls are expectations that the COVID-19 cure will soon be rolled out. Additionally, the Fed policymakers’ dovish tone, a contrast to the RBNZ counterparts’ absence, offer extra reasons to propel the quote. Even so, nearness to the US Presidential Election debate and a plethora of Fed speakers scheduled for crossing wires during the North American session question the risk-takers. Hence, the S&P 500 Futures register 0.30 intraday gains to 3,356 while the US 10-year Treasury yields and New Zealand’s NZX 50 are both mildly positive by the time of the press. Moving on, the Asian calendar doesn’t carry any major factors worth watching than the risk catalysts. As a result, the continuation of the latest pullback can be expected ahead of the US session. Though, any major positives for the greenback won’t be taken lightly. Technical analysis FXStreet’s Ross J Burland suggests the “wait and watch” approach for the bulls while saying, At this stage, the conditions are still not ideal for entry as bulls would be prudent to wait until the momentum indicators are more bullish and price pulls away from the 21-moving average. The price will indeed need to move higher towards the Fibo targets, but bulls would be on the lookout for structure lower down below price from where a buy-in at a discount might be achieved on pullbacks.  Read: NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls set on at least a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement  

USD/CAD has not been very forthcoming with its intentions during phases of consolidation and here we are again, with the weekly resistance and daily s

USD/CAD stalls at a well-telegraped resistance area.There are few, if any, prospects of a high probability setup from a swing-trading point of view.Day-traders will take note of the potential for sideways channel trading opportunities between resistance and support. USD/CAD has not been very forthcoming with its intentions during phases of consolidation and here we are again, with the weekly resistance and daily support sandwiching the outlook. Unfortunately, this makes for treacherous swing-trading opportunities.  However, there could be potential on the day-trading side. The following illustrates the price action and developments to date in a continuation of the following analysis that had predicted the upside breakout to where the market is now resisted:USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls finally catching a break?Monthly chart There is more to go to the upside until a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and resistance structure.  However, there will be shorter-term opportunities on the downside at this juncture first.  Weekly chart The price has reached a 61.8% Fibonacci that meets structure.  This makes for a compelling case for a pullback to at least a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Barroom brawl However, the price is now trapped between weekly resistance and daily support. This leaves little to no prospect of a high probability and protected setup in either direction from a swing trading perspective. at least not one that will offer a favourable risk to reward from a 4-hour time frame. Day-trading opportunities On the other hand, on the hourly time frame, bears can watch for an impulse to the downside to clear the support. Such an outcome will potentially offer a discount with a fade on rallies towards the 38.2% Fibo target.

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above forecasts (-0.3%) in September: Actual (-0.2%)

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in September

Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.4%) in September

WTI fades Monday’s upside momentum while easing to $40.68 during the pre-Tokyo open trading on Tuesday. The energy benchmark earlier rose to the highe

WTI buyers struggle to keep the previous day’s upside momentum near one-week high.One-month-old falling trend line restricts WTI crude oil’s immediate upside.200-bar SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement offers the key resistance.Multiple ascending trend line stands tall to question the bears’ entries.WTI fades Monday’s upside momentum while easing to $40.68 during the pre-Tokyo open trading on Tuesday. The energy benchmark earlier rose to the highest in one week before taking a U-turn from a descending trend line from August 31. Not only the immediate resistance line, currently around $40.85, 200-bar SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of WTI’s August-September downside, around $41.00, also acts as the key upside barrier for the black gold. As a result, odds of the commodity’s pullback to the $40.00 threshold, also comprising an upward sloping trend line from September 14, are brighter. Though, any further weakness below the psychological benchmark will be probed by a short-term rising support line from September 21 that presently stays around $39.50. It’s worth mentioning that the RSI strength may help WTI to attack the monthly top of $41.75 on the successful clearance above $41.00. WTI four-hour chart Trend: Sideways  

South Korea Industrial Output Growth above forecasts (-1.5%) in August: Actual (-0.7%)

South Korea Service Sector Output came in at -1%, below expectations (0.6%) in August

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) below expectations (-2.8%) in August: Actual (-3%)

Japan’s Statistics Bureau will release the September month inflation data on early Tuesday morning in Asia, 23:30 GMT globally. While Tokyo Consumer P

Tokyo Core CPI overview Japan’s Statistics Bureau will release the September month inflation data on early Tuesday morning in Asia, 23:30 GMT globally. While Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) is considered to be the benchmark of price pressure in the Japanese economy, Tokyo CPI ex-Fresh Food, popularly known as Tokyo Core CPI, gains much love among Japanese Yen (JPY) traders as one of the favorite price measures for the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The Japanese inflation data, otherwise mostly ignored, is likely to gain attention as the Asian economic calendar is mostly silent while the BOJ is yet to give any strong signals to join the lines of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Forecasts suggest no change in the Tokyo CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY) figure of -0.3% while signaling an upbeat Tokyo CPI data of 0.4% (YoY) versus 0.3% prior. It should be noted that the Tokyo CPI ex-Food and Energy figures may also recovery to 0.2% from -0.1% on an annualized basis. How could Tokyo Core CPI affect USD/JPY? With the recent correction in the US dollar, global traders are searching for extra clues ahead of the key event scheduled during the week. As a result, USD/JPY fails to extend the previous day’s halt to a five-day winning streak while taking rounds to 105.50/55. Given the recent risk-on sentiment, any further upside in the Japanese inflation data can help build the market sentiment and propel the USD/JPY further towards refreshing the monthly top. On the contrary, disappointment from the scheduled data will have a mixed response amid expectations of further easing from the BOJ and the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence, not to forget the market’s cautious sentiment. Technically, a clear break of the one-month-old falling trend line, at 105.45 now, can continue to challenge the monthly peak surrounding 105.70. Also acting as an immediate upside barrier is the 21-day SMA level of 105.60. Meanwhile, odds of the pair’s drop to August month’s low near 105.10 have comparatively fewer obstacles. Key Notes USD/JPY Forecast: Consolidating gains, bulls hesitateAbout the Tokyo CPI ex Fresh FoodThe Tokyo Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Bureau is a measure of price movements obtained by comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services, excluding fresh food. The index captures inflation in Tokyo. The purchase power of JPY is dragged down by inflation. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive for the JPY.

Gold traders are waiting for extra directions to extend the biggest recovery move in a month. In doing so, the yellow metal fades the previous day’s u

Gold eases from a four-day high of $1,883.08 flashed the previous day.Markets await fresh clues to extend the latest risk-on sentiment.Vaccine hopes, expectations of further stimulus keep the buyers positive but COVID-19 resurgence probes the bulls.Cautious sentiment ahead of the first US Presidential Election debate, Brexit talks also challenge the bullion optimists.Gold traders are waiting for extra directions to extend the biggest recovery move in a month. In doing so, the yellow metal fades the previous day’s upside momentum near $1,880 amid the pre-Tokyo open Asian trading on Tuesday. Are bears sneaking in? Given the commodity buyers’ pause, coupled with a lack of major data/event ahead of the key US Presidential Election debate, concerns over the short-term strength of the safe-haven metal can’t be ruled out. Also adding questions to gold’s latest pullback could be the recent announcements by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who said, "We have been able to make critical additions and reduce the cost of the bill by shortening the time covered for now." The news inflates the hope of the American stimulus and can reduce the rush to risk-safety for now. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde also showed readiness to announce further measures to keep the bloc on the recovery mode amid recent challenges. Meanwhile, UK PM Johnson is up for announcing further helps to combat the fears of economic slowdown as the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence and Brexit uncertainty attack the previous optimism. It’s worth mentioning that the rising numbers of the pandemic are pushing the UK and Europe towards strict activity restrictions while two cities of Canada, namely the Quebec City and Montreal, will be under red alert from October 01. Amid all these plays, S&P 500 Futures gain 0.20% to 3,353 after Wall Street marked a notable bounce. Looking forward, a light calendar in Asia may keep gold traders directed towards risk catalysts for fresh impetus. In doing so, news concerning the US aid package, virus and vaccine will join the Brexit and American Presidential Election could entertain the momentum traders. Technical analysis A clear break of the September 21 low of $1,882.30 becomes necessary for the bulls to attack the $1900 threshold. Though, August month’s low near $1,903 will precede 50-day EMA figures surrounding $1,908/09 to probe the gold buyers afterward. Meanwhile, sellers are less likely to enter unless the bullion prices drop below $1,848.  

Emily Cochrane, who is a reporter in the Washington bureau of The New York Times has been tweeting the updates with respect to Pelosi and Mnuchin who

Emily Cochrane, who is a reporter in the Washington bureau of The New York Times has been tweeting the updates with respect to Pelosi and Mnuchin who are are scheduled to speak at 6:30 tonight as the window closes for a covid relief deal. Five minutes before the call, House Democrats unveil their coronavirus relief bill, which comes in at about $2.2 trillion and 2,152 pages. 

AUD/JPY picks up bids near 74.60 during the early Tuesday morning in Asia. The aussie cross broke a descending trend line from September 19 the previo

AUD/JPY keeps upside break of a seven-day-old falling trend line.Bullish MACD favors extra run-up but 200-hour EMA, a fortnight old resistance line will question the buyers.Sellers can retake entries below the previous resistance line but 74.00 will be the tough nut to crack.AUD/JPY picks up bids near 74.60 during the early Tuesday morning in Asia. The aussie cross broke a descending trend line from September 19 the previous day and is currently combating 100-hour EMA. Considering the pair’s ability to stay past the short-term resistance line, now support, coupled with the bullish MACD, AUD/JPY buyers are likely to stay happy for a bit more beyond the 74.65 immediate upside barrier. While the anticipated strength can direct the bulls towards the 75.00 threshold, a confluence of 200-hour EMA and a downward sloping trend line from September 15, near 75.20 will be the crucial resistance to watch as a break of which will push AUD/JPY further north towards 76.00. Alternatively, 74.40 can act as the nearby support for the pair during its pullback, a break of which will highlight the previous resistance line, at 74.25 now. It should, however, be noted that the bears will remain cautious unless breaking the monthly low of 74.00 that holds the gate to further declines targeting the late-June lows near 73.30. AUD/JPY hourly chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is will put forward another measure combat the economic fears of coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence and no-deal Br

UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is will put forward another measure combat the economic fears of coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence and no-deal Brexit. In doing so, the Tory leader will push for adult education by retraining the unemployed for jobs in growth sectors, per the Financial Times (FT). Key quotes The PM is to promise a ‘lifetime skills guarantee’ open to adults in England who do not have an A-level or equivalent qualification, offering them a free college place on an approved list of vocational courses. Details also suggest that higher education loans would also be made more flexible to allow adults to space out the study across their lifetimes, allowing them to retrain for new careers as the economy changed. Furthermore, the new offer of free college places will be paid for from the £2.5bn National Skills Fund, which was announced in the Budget in March before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. An additional £1.5bn of capital investment was allocated to upgrade further-education colleges. FX implications Although GBP/USD trimmed some of the Monday’s strong gains by the Asian session on Tuesday, the news can add reasons for the Pound buyers. However, a lack of British traders during this time of the day restricted the quote’s moves around 1.2840 by the time of the press.

AUD/USD keeps Monday’s recovery moves while taking rounds to 0.7070 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the aussie pair respects Fri

AUD/USD seesaws near the high of Monday’s corrective recovery.Hopes of further money supply from the US and Europe join expectations of virus vaccine to boost market sentiment.Equities, commodities benefited the most whereas the US dollar is still not on the bears’ radars.US Presidential Election debate is the key event while Fedspeak may offer intermediate clues.AUD/USD keeps Monday’s recovery moves while taking rounds to 0.7070 at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the aussie pair respects Friday’s U-turn from the lowest in 10 weeks as the market environment benefits from the hints of further stimulus, be it monetary or fiscal, by the US and European policymakers. Also favoring the mood is Brexit-positive sentiment and hopes that the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine will be out soon. Not a trend change… Despite the AUD/USD traders’ relief from the heaviest drop in many weeks, the quote is not eligible to stand on the bull’s radars. The reason could be many starting from the broad market favor for the US dollar to the on-going COVID-19 resurgence that dampens the hope of economic recovery from the virus-led lockdowns. Also challenging the run-up could be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) bearish bias and cause of concerns for China, Australia’s largest customer. Even so, global markets cheered the hints of further money flow from the US and Europe. Following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s optimism towards the COVID-19 aid package discussion, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the Governing Council, “continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate”. It should also be noted that expectations of China’s local press concerning no change in monetary policy and signals of manufacturing recovery also helped build the previous day’s consolidation. Against this backdrop, Wall Street managed to keep Friday’s gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also stood positive by the end of Monday. Further, Gold regained $1,880 whereas the WTI crossed $40.00. Looking forward, the economic calendar remains mostly silent during the Asian session and hence risk catalysts are mostly in demand. It should, however, be noted that the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of the first US Presidential Election debate between the current leader Donald Trump and the challenger Joe Biden may probe the bulls going forward. Also, the Federal Reserve policymakers’ likely optimism, observed from the latest comments, can renew the US dollar buying, which in turn will question AUD/USD buyers. Technical analysis Successful bounce off 100-day SMA, currently around 0.7010, needs not only the break of the 0.7100 threshold but clearance of the August 12 low surrounding 0.7110 to probe 50-day SMA level close to 0.7205. Alternatively, a downside break of 0.7010 will require validation from the 0.7000 psychological magnet before recalling the bears.  

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI came in at 70 below forecasts (71) in October

Scroll Top