Forex News Timeline

22:43 Crude Oil slips as US-Iran talk tensions ease, WTI tests $63
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trimmed a little bit off the top of barrel bids on Thursday, falling around $0.95 per barrel, or 1.5%.

22:06 JPY: Japan election risk impacts yen – MUFG
Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes the impact of Japan's election risk on the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY has risen above the 157.00-level, driven by expectations that the ruling coalition will strengthen its majority.

Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes the impact of Japan's election risk on the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY has risen above the 157.00-level, driven by expectations that the ruling coalition will strengthen its majority. This has led to renewed selling of the Yen, while a recent JGB auction showed stronger demand. Hardman notes that the political landscape is likely to support further selling of the Yen and JGBs.Impact of Japan's election on currency"Renewed yen selling was reinforced yesterday by the release of another opinion poll from Japan indicating that the ruling coalition government is well on course to strengthen their majority in the Lower House.""The survey results have reinforced market expectations that Prime Minister Takaichi will win a strong mandate to continue implementing her 'reflationist' policy agenda providing a fresh catalyst for popular Takaishi trades encouraging further selling of the yen and JGBs.""However, there was some good news for JGBs overnight. The latest 30-year JGB auction drew stronger demand."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

21:36 RUB: One positive scenario emerging – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's FX Research report by Tatha Ghose discusses the outlook for the Ruble amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions. The report highlights a potential positive scenario if a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is reached, which could lead to the lifting of some sanctions.

Commerzbank's FX Research report by Tatha Ghose discusses the outlook for the Ruble amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and sanctions. The report highlights a potential positive scenario if a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is reached, which could lead to the lifting of some sanctions. However, the overall economic outlook remains challenging, with signs of stress and a weaker currency forecasted in the absence of significant geopolitical changes.Outlook for the Ruble"All said, one positive scenario is emerging, even if not for the right reasons. The US administration has been trying to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The negotiations are reportedly stuck at a complex juncture involving territorial surrender.""It is not our base-case that a solution can be found around this quagmire soon. Nevertheless, if a solution were to somehow be found, we may assume that some major sanctions on Russia would be lifted.""In conclusion, a positive scenario regarding sanctions and frozen assets may now be priced-in with some probability. A peace treaty is not our base-case for the near-term. But in the event that a solution is found, the rouble would appreciate considerably from current levels."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

21:16 BoC’s Macklem: I welcome the nomination of Kevin Warsh
Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said that he welcomes the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. In a speech at the Empire Club in Toronto on Thursday.

21:16 Silver shudders, XAG/USD tumbles 13% as metals rout continues
Spot Silver markets took a fresh beating on Thursday, with XAG/USD tumbling 13% in a single day. Intraday Silver bids have been pushed back onto the bottom end of a 40% peak-to-trough decline that dragged Silver prices sharply down from record highs posted at $121.66 just last week.

21:08 THB: Election uncertainty impacts currency – OCBC
OCBC Bank's report highlights the softer footing of the Thai Baht (THB) due to election-related uncertainty and a firmer USD. Thailand's upcoming election on February 8 could significantly influence the THB through sentiment and policy channels.

OCBC Bank's report highlights the softer footing of the Thai Baht (THB) due to election-related uncertainty and a firmer USD. Thailand's upcoming election on February 8 could significantly influence the THB through sentiment and policy channels. The report notes that a clear election outcome could support the THB, while a fragile coalition may hinder economic policy implementation.Election impacts THB sentiment"Interim weakness playing out. USDTHB continued to inch higher, tracking the USD rebound and weaker gold sentiment while also inching closer to election day (8 Feb).""We had earlier indicated that softer growth momentum and election-related uncertainty add to two-way risks, with near-term USDTHB bias tilting modestly higher.""A clear outcome allowing for the formation of majority government is the most positive as economic policies can potentially be implemented smoothly. This should also be supportive of THB, and we reckon some of the weakness can dissipate and that THB should revert to taking cues from broader macro drivers including risk sentiments, USD trend."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

21:00 Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (7%)
Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (7%)

20:59 Forex Today: BoE dovish hold sinks GBP, DXY surges and Gold slips
Financial markets revolved around European central banks’ monetary policy decisions.

20:35 China: January PMIs signal potential easing – MUFG
MUFG's report highlights that China's January PMIs have shown disappointing results, with the Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.3 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.4.

MUFG's report highlights that China's January PMIs have shown disappointing results, with the Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.3 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.4. The report suggests that these declines may prompt further policy easing, including potential cuts to the policy rate and reserve requirement ratio if domestic growth does not improve. The analysis indicates that the construction sector is particularly weak, with a significant drop in the construction PMI.PMI declines may lead to policy changes"January official PMIs were a disappointment. Manufacturing PMI reading unexpectedly fell below the 50 level to 49.3, after briefly returning to expansion territory in December.""The bright spot however lies on manufacturing PMI price-related sub-indices, with input price (i.e., main raw material purchasing price index) rising further to 56.1 and output price posted an expansionary reading for the first time since June 2024 at 50.6.""Further easing likely on the way. In upcoming March NPC, we expect the budgeted fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio to nudge higher to 4.5% and that the 'broad' fiscal deficit ratio to increase from 8.4% previously to 9.0%."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

20:22 Gold slides nearly 2% as US Dollar strength triggers fresh liquidation
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles during the North American session on Thursday as precious metals continue their liquidation mode, while the Greenback recovers some ground amid worse-than-expected economic data in the US.

20:04 Germany: A sign of life from industry – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's Economic Research report highlights a significant rise in German industrial orders, which increased by 7.8% in December, marking the second consecutive month of growth.

Commerzbank's Economic Research report highlights a significant rise in German industrial orders, which increased by 7.8% in December, marking the second consecutive month of growth. The report notes that while this growth is largely due to big ticket orders, the core figure excluding these orders also rose by 0.9%. This trend suggests a potential end to the downturn in the industrial sector, with expectations of stronger growth in the economy.Positive trends in German industrial orders"German industrial orders rose significantly in December for the second month in a row, up 7.8% compared to November. As in November, this growth is largely attributable to big ticket orders, meaning that this increase in orders is likely to exaggerate the underlying trend.""Even if the strong increase must therefore be put into perspective, today's figures are a positive surprise. Even without the large orders, order intake rose by 0.9%.""This increases the chances that industry will no longer slow down the economy this year, but will even contribute to the generally expected slightly stronger growth."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

19:38 Canadian Dollar edges lower against Greenback as risk-off flows dominate
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed some scant weight against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, backsliding a slim 0.05%.

19:33 MXN: Cautious stance on rate cuts – Societe Generale
Societe Generale's report outlines the outlook for the Mexican Peso (MXN), indicating that Banxico is expected to maintain the policy rate at 7.00%. It highlights the central bank's cautious approach and the criticism it faces for lowering rates before achieving inflation convergence.

Societe Generale's report outlines the outlook for the Mexican Peso (MXN), indicating that Banxico is expected to maintain the policy rate at 7.00%. It highlights the central bank's cautious approach and the criticism it faces for lowering rates before achieving inflation convergence. The report also mentions a forecast for rate cuts later in the year, while noting the challenges for further appreciation of the peso.Policy rate and inflation outlook"Our house call is for 25bp cuts in 1H and 2H to 6.50% at year-end.""Seasonal trends have historically supported the peso in February but further appreciation and a break below 17.00 LT ascending trendline going back to 2008 may prove challenging and dependent global de‑dollarization trades toward commodities."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

19:20 AUD/USD weakens as US Dollar gains on hawkish Fed signals
AUD/USD trades lower on Thursday and is hovering around 0.6965 at the time of writing, down 0.45% on the day.

19:02 JPY: Election impacts on economy and bonds – ING
ING analysts Min Joo Kang, Chris Turner, and Padhraic Garvey provide insights into the upcoming Japanese election and its implications for the economy, bonds, and the Yen.

ING analysts Min Joo Kang, Chris Turner, and Padhraic Garvey provide insights into the upcoming Japanese election and its implications for the economy, bonds, and the Yen. PM Sanae Takaichi is expected to secure a significant victory, which could lead to higher JGB yields and potential USD/JPY strength. The report discusses the balance between spending and fiscal sustainability in Japan's economic landscape.Takaichi's election and economic implications"Takaichi needs to find a balance between more spending and fiscal sustainability. Structural changes in the economy should send JGB yields higher. We believe it is a path towards a normal economy.""If the LDP secures a majority in the lower house, Takaichi could speed up tax cut talks. She will argue that she has the public mandate. But a consensus still needs to be reached by the national council.""We expect that the economy will return to a normal state after experiencing many years of deflation. While fiscal sustainability may contribute to higher yields, we think economic normalisation plays a stronger role in driving yields upward.""A positive election result for the LDP that would pump more air into the 'Takaichi trade' is a USD/JPY positive. USD/JPY could even approach 160/162 levels again on the back of this.""In all, we forecast USD/JPY to bounce around in a 155-160 range through the first half of the year and then 50bp of Fed rate cuts to drag it closer to 150 by year-end."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

18:35 SEK: Riksbank's concern over disinflation risks – MUFG
MUFG's report, authored by Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, addresses the recent strength of the Swedish Krona and the Riksbank's response. Following strong gains, the Riksbank has expressed concern over the potential for disinflation risks due to the strengthening Krona.

MUFG's report, authored by Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst, addresses the recent strength of the Swedish Krona and the Riksbank's response. Following strong gains, the Riksbank has expressed concern over the potential for disinflation risks due to the strengthening Krona. Minutes from the last policy meeting indicated that a rate cut could be considered if inflation continues to fall. This has led to a correction in the Krona's value against the Euro.Riksbank's response to currency strength"After such strong gains, the ongoing strength of the krona is starting to attract more concern amongst Swedish policymakers.""Yesterday’s minutes revealed that Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson couldn’t rule out voting for a rate cut at the next policy meeting on 18th March.""The dovish comments from the Deputy Governor have encouraged the Swedish rate market to price back in a higher likelihood of further rate cuts this year, and triggered a sharp correction lower for the krona."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

18:33 United States 4-Week Bill Auction remains unchanged at 3.63%
United States 4-Week Bill Auction remains unchanged at 3.63%

18:19 Dow Jones Industrial Average sinks as markets flee to safety
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) took another header on Thursday, tumbling 650 points and following the rest of the market lower as investors rotate firmly into a flight for safety.

18:09 EUR/CAD steady as ECB holds rates, Canadian Dollar pressured by weak Oil prices
EUR/CAD trades around 1.6130 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as markets digest the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision and monitor Canada-specific factors.

18:02 US Treasury Bessent: Warsh is highly qualified
Senate Banking Committee

18:02 CHF: Imported deflation and limited SNB options – Commerzbank
The report by Commerzbank, authored by Michael Pfister, discusses the challenges faced by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in managing the strong Swiss Franc (CHF) and its implications for inflation.

The report by Commerzbank, authored by Michael Pfister, discusses the challenges faced by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in managing the strong Swiss Franc (CHF) and its implications for inflation. With EUR/CHF levels below 0.92, the SNB's options for intervention are limited, and the strength of the franc is contributing to lower imported inflation. The report highlights the potential for further appreciation of the CHF and the risks associated with the SNB's response.Challenges for the Swiss National Bank"With EUR-CHF levels below 0.92, discussions about the SNB's options for weakening the franc have picked up again. However, it is also important to assess how much of this movement was actually driven by the franc, and to what extent this will impact Swiss inflation.""A strong franc means weaker imported inflation, which poses an additional problem for such an open economy facing already low inflationary pressure. Two questions are central to assessing this issue: How much franc strength could be too much for the SNB?""The most obvious short-term option for the SNB would be to respond to a stronger franc by intervening in the FX market to weaken the currency. This would enable the SNB to react quickly, particularly between meetings.""If the pace of appreciation accelerates significantly, it will probably only slow it down. The SNB can do little to counter the main reasons for a stronger franc through intervention or negative interest rates anyway.""In the coming months, hopes will likely rest solely on the euro to lift EUR-CHF. If growth finally picks up, especially in Germany, and politicians do not resist a stronger euro, the euro is likely to benefit from any turbulence in the US as an alternative."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:39 GBP/USD sinks as BoE delivers dovish hold, April cut fully priced
The Pound Sterling collapses versus the US Dollar after the Bank of England decided to hold rates but opened the door for further easing, in a decision seen as a “dovish hold.” Worse than expected US jobs data failed to halt the GBP/USD downfall, trades at 1.3529 down 0.90%.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}GBP/USD slides after a 5–4 “dovish hold” by the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 3.75%.Governor Andrew Bailey flagged scope for further easing as inflation is projected to undershoot target.Weak US labor data lifted Fed cut bets, but Sterling losses persisted despite rising easing expectations at the Federal Reserve.The Pound Sterling collapses versus the US Dollar after the Bank of England decided to hold rates but opened the door for further easing, in a decision seen as a “dovish hold.” Worse than expected US jobs data failed to halt the GBP/USD downfall, trades at 1.3529 down 0.90%.Sterling tumbles after a split BoE decision signaled easing aheadEarlier, the BoE on a 5-4 vote split kept the Bank Rate at 3.75%, though some of the comments of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) despite voting for a pause, provided dovish signals. Governor Bailey said that there is scope for further easing, not exactly clear when and expects “quite sharp” inflation drop.In its projections, the BoE expects inflation to hit the 2% target in Q1 2028, projected to be at around 1.8%. Regarding economic growth, the GDP in 2026 is projected at 0.9%, in 2027 at 1.5% and in 2028 would hit 1.9%. Wage growth is foreseen to remain steady at 3.25%.After the data traders had fully priced in the first rate cut in April. Ahead of the meeting, money markets saw 72% chance for an interest rate reduction, revealed Prime Market Terminal data.Source: Prime Market TerminalAcross the pond, a tranche of jobs data increased the odds for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cuts report, revealed that companies announced 108,435 layoffs, a 118% increase from a year before. The data showed that hiring intentions contracted 13%.Initial Jobless Claims revealed by the Department of Labor, missed estimates of 212K, rose sharply 231K in the week ending January 31. In the meantime, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for December fell showing that companies are growing reluctant to hire people. Vacancies declined from 6.928 million in November to 6.542 million, beneath estimates of 7.2 million.Weak US jobs data pushed traders to price in further easing by the Federal Reserve. Before the release of economic data, they priced 50 bps of rate cuts. As of writing, the needle increases to 56 bps. Related news Sterling dips after 'surprisingly dovish' comms from Bank of England: Next cut due in April Pound Sterling cracks after BoE's dovish rate hold JOLTS Job Openings decreased to 6.54M in December What’s in the docket for February 6?The UK schedule will feature a speech of BoE’s Chief Economist Huw Pill. In the US, the docket will feature Fed speeches and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/USD is plunging sharply, clearing bulls’ last line of support at 1.3567 the January 6 high. If the pair closes Thursday’s session below the latter, expect a test of 1.3500 in the short term. On further weakness, sellers could push prices to the 50-day SMA at 1.3471, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 1.3471.Conversely, if buyers regain 1.3567, they could remain hopeful of testing 1.3600, but it would depend on further deterioration of the US economic outlook.GBP/USD Daily Chart Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.15% 0.89% -0.14% 0.10% 0.74% 0.51% -0.08% EUR -0.15% 0.74% -0.28% -0.05% 0.60% 0.37% -0.23% GBP -0.89% -0.74% -1.06% -0.78% -0.14% -0.37% -0.96% JPY 0.14% 0.28% 1.06% 0.24% 0.89% 0.64% 0.07% CAD -0.10% 0.05% 0.78% -0.24% 0.65% 0.41% -0.18% AUD -0.74% -0.60% 0.14% -0.89% -0.65% -0.23% -0.88% NZD -0.51% -0.37% 0.37% -0.64% -0.41% 0.23% -0.59% CHF 0.08% 0.23% 0.96% -0.07% 0.18% 0.88% 0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -360B, above forecasts (-379B) in January 30
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -360B, above forecasts (-379B) in January 30

17:28 Emerging Markets: Commodity prices not a cure-all for inflation – BNY
BNY's analysis indicates that while higher commodity prices have stabilized associated assets, they are not expected to lead to structural changes in emerging markets.

BNY's analysis indicates that while higher commodity prices have stabilized associated assets, they are not expected to lead to structural changes in emerging markets. The report cautions against overestimating the impact of commodity price rallies, highlighting that many economies may face prolonged stagflation. The analysis also notes skepticism regarding the transformative potential of recent windfalls in countries like Peru.Emerging market inflation and commodity insights"Central banks and governments in metals-producing countries will be relieved that the extreme price action seen last Friday and early Monday was not more disruptive. While prices have not recovered to pre-volatility highs, associated assets such as currencies and equity indices have stabilized.""However, we would be cautious about expecting structural changes in underlying economies from the rally in metals pricing. First, the world is not entering a new commodity super-cycle, and one of the core drivers of metals prices – fears of fiat currency debasement – has very little to do with physical demand.""In reality, such measures are rarely adopted, and structural reforms only take place when the situation approaches crisis levels and entails a political cost."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

17:15 JOLTS Job Openings decrease to 6.54M in December
The number of job openings on the last business day of December stood at 6.542 million, while for November it was revised downward to 6.928 million, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Thursday.

17:05 EUR/USD steady as ECB holds rates, US labor data sends mixed signals
EUR/USD trades around 1.1800 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as investors digest the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision and a series of mixed economic releases from the United States (US).

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.2M) in December: Actual (6.542M)
United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.2M) in December: Actual (6.542M)

16:58 GBP: March rate cut likely following BoE decision – ING
The Bank of England's recent decision to maintain rates at 3.75% has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in March, according to ING. The decision was influenced by new analysis in the Monetary Policy Report, which suggests that wage growth is nearing the target inflation rate.

The Bank of England's recent decision to maintain rates at 3.75% has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in March, according to ING. The decision was influenced by new analysis in the Monetary Policy Report, which suggests that wage growth is nearing the target inflation rate. ING analysts expect further cuts in June, bringing rates down to 3.25%. The report also highlights political pressures affecting the Pound.BoE decision raises rate cut expectations"Another heavily divided Bank of England decision lowers the bar for a rate cut next month. So long as the data continues to follow recent trends – weaker employment, lower wage growth, easing inflation – then we think a March cut is likely to be followed by another in June.""The decision unquestionably boosts the chances of a March rate cut, which is a bit of a surprise. Not much has changed in the economic data since the December meeting, where the Bank cut rates but signalled it could slow the pace of easing.""Our view is that headline inflation should fall to 1.8% in April and stay around 2% through the spring/summer. That’s slightly below BoE forecasts.""We continue to see it trading up to 0.88 over the coming months as both softer UK short-dated yields and local politics weigh.""We expect political uncertainty to dominate. And we have an EUR/GBP forecast at 0.90 by year-end as some continued euro strength wins through on our expected rebound in European growth."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:29 MXN: Banxico's cautious stance – Commerzbank
In the latest analysis from Commerzbank, Michael Pfister discusses the Mexican central bank's likely decision to maintain interest rates.

In the latest analysis from Commerzbank, Michael Pfister discusses the Mexican central bank's likely decision to maintain interest rates. With economists agreeing on the lack of immediate changes, the report emphasizes that Banxico is expected to assess the effects of previous rate cuts before making further adjustments, indicating a cautious approach moving forward.Banxico's wait-and-see approach"Banxico is likely to wait and see the effects of past interest rate cuts on inflation and growth before cutting further.""Today's decision is likely to have been fully priced into the market by now, and things will only get particularly exciting at upcoming meetings.""However, given Banxico's dovish stance, we remain somewhat sceptical, although there are unlikely to be any indications of further interest rate cuts already today."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:18 Lagarde speech: Policy is agile, prepared to do what is necessary
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:11 GBP: Strength expected to pause – TD Securities
TD Securities' report by Julie Ioffe discusses the recent decision by the Bank of England to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The dovish lean in the voting suggests potential cuts in the near future.

TD Securities' report by Julie Ioffe discusses the recent decision by the Bank of England to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The dovish lean in the voting suggests potential cuts in the near future. The report notes that while GBP has shown strength, it is likely to pause due to an expected bounce back of the USD, particularly in Q1, which typically sees strong US data. The outlook remains bullish for GBP against the USD but bearish against the EUR.BoE holds rates with dovish sentiment"The Bank of England voted to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with of 5-4 split, which was more dovish than was expected by the market.""Looking forward, today's four dissents and the balanced wavering of Bailey and Mann at this meeting continue to anchor us on a final March cut to a 3.50% Bank Rate.""Structurally, we like GBP upside vs the USD but downside vs the EUR."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

16:06 Lagarde speech: We have no exchange rate target
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:03 GBP/JPY falls sharply as dovish BoE decision pressures Pound Sterling
GBP/JPY trades around 212.70 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.70% on the day, as Pound Sterling (GBP) comes under strong pressure following the Bank of England’s policy announcement.

15:58 Lagarde speech: Stronger Euro could bring inflation down more than expected
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:56 Lagarde speech: Uncertainty could weigh on demand
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:44 US: Initial Jobless Claims increased to 231K last week
The number of United States (US) citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 231K for the week ending January 31.

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.85M) in January 23: Actual (1.844M)
United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.85M) in January 23: Actual (1.844M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average climbed from previous 206.25K to 212.25K in January 30
United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average climbed from previous 206.25K to 212.25K in January 30

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 231K above expectations (212K) in January 30
United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 231K above expectations (212K) in January 30

15:18 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets forecasts (2.15%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets forecasts (2.15%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)
Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate came in at 2%, below expectations (2.15%)
Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate came in at 2%, below expectations (2.15%)

15:08 JPY: Weakness persists despite improvements – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Yen remains weak despite significant undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity and an improved balance of payments. They suggest that concerns regarding the government's ability to maintain a downtrend in the debt-to-GDP ratio are overblown.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that the Yen remains weak despite significant undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity and an improved balance of payments. They suggest that concerns regarding the government's ability to maintain a downtrend in the debt-to-GDP ratio are overblown. Improved confidence in fiscal management after upcoming elections is expected to help USD/JPY drop towards the mid-140s in 2026.Yen weakness and fiscal management outlook"The yen has remained weak despite extreme undervaluation relative to purchasing power parity and an improvement in the country’s balance of payments.""We think the concerns about the government’s ability to maintain the recent downtrend in the country’s debt /GDP ratio are overdone.""Improved confidence in fiscal management after the upcoming elections in Japan should help USD/JPY drop back towards the mid-140s in 2026 and we see room for a faster fall in EUR/JPY."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

15:02 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $826.8B from previous $786.9B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $826.8B from previous $786.9B

15:02 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ rose from previous $786.9B to $826B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $ rose from previous $786.9B to $826B

14:46 Silver: Plunges another 17% amid volatility – BNY
Silver prices have plunged another 17%, erasing a brief recovery and reflecting extreme volatility in precious metals. The renewed drop follows a historic rout, with prices falling significantly below earlier highs.

Silver prices have plunged another 17%, erasing a brief recovery and reflecting extreme volatility in precious metals. The renewed drop follows a historic rout, with prices falling significantly below earlier highs. Bob Savage, Head of Markets Macro Strategy at BNY, warns that near-term volatility may persist despite longer-term support remaining intact.Silver prices face extreme volatility"Silver extended its selloff on Thursday, plunging as much as 17% and erasing a brief two-day rebound.""The renewed drop dragged gold down as well and weighed on broader metals markets, with copper also falling.""Investors are now focused on U.S. monetary policy uncertainty, with analysts warning near-term volatility may persist despite longer-term support remaining intact."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:38 EUR/JPY trades higher as Yen weakens, Eurozone data mixed ahead of ECB decision
EUR/JPY trades around 185.40 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.10% on the day. The cross is mainly supported by the underperformance of the Japanese Yen, amid rising political uncertainty in Japan, while the Euro shows a more mixed profile due to conflicting macroeconomic signals.

14:31 EUR/GBP rallies above 0.8700 after BoE’s dovish hold
The Euro (EUR) is drawing support for a weaker British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision. The pair has jumped to a fresh one-week high beyond 0.8700, from the 0.8660 area.

14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts up to 108.435K in January from previous 35.553K
United States Challenger Job Cuts up to 108.435K in January from previous 35.553K

14:20 EUR: ECB remains on hold – TD Securities
According to TD Securities, the European Central Bank is anticipated to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00% with no significant changes in its communication.

According to TD Securities, the European Central Bank is anticipated to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00% with no significant changes in its communication. The report highlights that geopolitical tensions and market volatility may introduce uncertainty, but the ECB's stance will likely focus on balanced risks.ECB's steady approach amid uncertainty"We expect the ECB to remain on hold at 2.00%, with little shift in tone of message.""Though geopolitical tensions and recent market volatility will likely bring the subject of uncertainty back into the discussion, the press statement and conference will continue to lean on balanced risks and a 'well-positioned' monetary policy."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets forecasts (0)
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets forecasts (0)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 5 below forecasts (7)
United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 5 below forecasts (7)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (3.75%)
United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (3.75%)

13:55 USD/CAD remains bid near 1.3700, buoyed by the risk-off mood
The US Dollar (USD) appreciates for the second consecutive day against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Bulls have failed to find acceptance above 1.3700 earlier on the day, but the pair remains bid, trading at 1.3685, with the safe-haven USD favoured by the dismal market mood.

13:48 ECB: Inflation risks skewed to the upside – Nomura
Nomura analysts project that Euro area inflation will hover around the ECB’s 2.0% target until the end of 2027, with GDP growth expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2026. They foresee potential inflation overshooting in 2028, necessitating rate hikes.

Nomura analysts project that Euro area inflation will hover around the ECB’s 2.0% target until the end of 2027, with GDP growth expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2026. They foresee potential inflation overshooting in 2028, necessitating rate hikes. The report emphasizes a tight labor market contributing to inflationary pressures and anticipates the ECB will raise rates in the future.ECB rate hikes anticipated in 2028"We expect euro area HICP inflation to hover around the ECB’s 2.0% target until the end of 2027, and we forecast GDP growth to reach its pre-pandemic trend rate by mid-2026. Hence, we expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged through 2027.""However, owing to a combination of the unemployment rate likely falling further below its equilibrium rate and our forecast of economic growth rising to a rate meaningfully above potential, we see a real risk that inflation will overshoot the ECB’s target in 2028.""We believe the ECB will need to raise rates at least 50bp in 2028 (two 25bp hikes) to bring inflation back to target. The risk, however, is skewed to earlier hikes and more hikes should upward inflationary pressures prove stronger than we expect.""The ECB is now squarely focused on its end-of-horizon forecast, which is currently 2028, rather than near-term deviations.""A stronger euro could add disinflationary pressures, though at what level this may trigger a response from the ECB on account of the effect on inflation is debatable."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

13:27 GBP: Political uncertainty weighs heavily – BBH
The British Pound and gilts have declined sharply due to political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership.

The British Pound and gilts have declined sharply due to political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady at 3.75% amid concerns that a potential change in leadership could lead to more left-leaning fiscal policies, note Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) analysts.Political turmoil impacts GBP and gilts"GBP and gilts plunged driven by UK political uncertainty. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing intense leadership speculation over his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, despite knowing about his connection to Jeffrey Epstein.""The BOE is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 3.75% after voting 5-4 to cut rates by 25bps at the December 18 meeting. A 7-2 vote split is expected this time around, with staunch doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor favoring a 25bps cut.""Overall, persistently above target UK inflation suggests the BOE can afford to wait before resuming easing to support weakening labor market conditions."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

13:05 USD/JPY extends winning streak on USD’s continued outperformance
The USD/JPY extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Thursday, trades 0.26% higher to near 156.20. The pair advances further due to continued outperformance from the US Dollar (USD).

13:04 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers below $5,000, recent recovery losses steam
Gold (XAU/USD) is accelerating its reversal from Wednesday’s highs near $5,100, trading at $4,865 at the time of writing, with downside attempts contained below $4,790 for now. Precious metals are losing ground despite the risk-averse sentiment, as the US Dollar appreciates across the board.

12:59 EUR/GBP advances ahead of highly anticipated BoE, ECB decisions
EUR/GBP trades around 0.8670 on Thursday at the time of writing, up 0.30% on the day, supported by some weakness in the Pound Sterling (GBP) ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which is due later in the day, despite mixed economic indicators from the Eurozone.

12:12 USDJPY: Potential for significant movement – TD Securities
The upcoming Lower House election in Japan on February 8 is expected to have significant implications for the USD/JPY exchange rate. TD Securities analysts predict that if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secures an absolute majority, USDJPY could rise towards 160.

The upcoming Lower House election in Japan on February 8 is expected to have significant implications for the USD/JPY exchange rate. TD Securities analysts predict that if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secures an absolute majority, USDJPY could rise towards 160. The report assigns a 65% probability to this outcome, indicating that political stability may lead to a bullish sentiment in the currency market.Election impact on USDJPY"Based on polls from both Nikkei and Yomiuri and the Feb 1 poll results from Asahi, the momentum is in the LDP's favor. We assign a 65% probability to a Takaichi absolute majority outcome (winning > 261 seats). In this scenario, expect USDJPY to gravitate towards 160 and the JGB curve to bear steepen.""An absolute majority in the Lower House would allow the ruling coalition to pass Takaichi's preferred policies/ legislation quickly and remove the need to compromise with the DPP and other opposition parties.""USDJPY could pop higher by 2-3 figures, with the 160 level marking a key resistance level which also attracts onshore media attention. In case of a rapid move beyond 160, we expect the MoF to intervene in the FX market, possibly with the help of the US since the reaction in JGBs and the JPY may spill over to the US market."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

12:08 USD/CHF Price Forecasts: Support at 0.7740 keeps holding bears
The US Dollar is flat against the Swiss Franc on Thursday, trading around 0.7780 at the time of writing.

12:04 Eurozone Retail Sales falls 0.5% MoM in December vs. 0.1% growth
Eurozone Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declines 0.5% month-on-month (MoM) in December, faster than estimates of 0.2% fall. In November, the consumer spending measure rose by 0.1%, revised lower from 0.2%.

12:01 France 10-y Bond Auction down to 3.38% from previous 3.53%
France 10-y Bond Auction down to 3.38% from previous 3.53%

12:00 Spain 3-y Bond Auction declined to 2.341% from previous 2.342%
Spain 3-y Bond Auction declined to 2.341% from previous 2.342%

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (-0.2%) in December
Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (-0.2%) in December

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in December: Actual (1.3%)
Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in December: Actual (1.3%)

11:44 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction: 3.223% vs 1.508%
Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction: 3.223% vs 1.508%

11:41 GBP: Uncertain rate cut timing – Societe Generale
Societe Generale's report provides insights on the British Pound (GBP) as the BoE's next rate cut timing remains uncertain. It suggests that the statement from the BoE will likely reiterate that inflation is projected to fall back towards the target more quickly in the near term.

Societe Generale's report provides insights on the British Pound (GBP) as the BoE's next rate cut timing remains uncertain. It suggests that the statement from the BoE will likely reiterate that inflation is projected to fall back towards the target more quickly in the near term. The report also notes the significance of the MPC vote and its implications for future policy direction.BoE's rate cut outlook"The exact timing of the next rate cut remains uncertain (SG call April) and a 7-2 MPC vote today would not make us much wiser.""The statement will most likely repeat that 'inflation is projected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term' and 'Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path.'"(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $78.42 per troy ounce, down 10.33% from the $87.45 it cost on Wednesday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI: 46.4 (January) vs 40.1
United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI: 46.4 (January) vs 40.1

11:22 JPY: Weakness persists ahead of election – OCBC Bank
The report from OCBC Bank discusses the ongoing weakness of the JPY amid fiscal uncertainty ahead of Japan's election on February 8. The contrasting behavior of JGB yields suggests differing interpretations among investors regarding Japan's fiscal outlook.

The report from OCBC Bank discusses the ongoing weakness of the JPY amid fiscal uncertainty ahead of Japan's election on February 8. The contrasting behavior of JGB yields suggests differing interpretations among investors regarding Japan's fiscal outlook. The report highlights potential intervention risks and the implications of the election results on the JPY's stability.Fiscal uncertainty weighs on JPY"Verbal intervention risks could rise as the 8 February Japan election keeps fiscal uncertainty weighing on the JPY. Intervention concerns should help cap USDJPY upside both before and after the vote.""Fiscal worries typically weaken the JPY and push long-end JGB yields higher. The contrast between a relatively calm JGB market and a struggling JPY is notable, hinting at diverging views between bond and FX investors on potential LDP fiscal direction after a likely ruling coalition win.""A majority win would strengthen PM Takaichi’s mandate to pursue 'Sanaenomics' (fiscal stimulus), which could pressure the JPY. However, the JPY could stabilise if a clear LDP majority reduces the need for looser fiscal or monetary measures to court opposition support."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:17 Dow Jones futures fall due to renewed selling in tech
Dow Jones futures slip 0.05% to around 49,560 during Thursday’s European session ahead of the US regular opening as investors rotated out of technology and into more reasonably valued sectors. The Dow Jones index gained 0.67% on Wednesday's regular hours.

11:04 EUR/USD: ECB policy meeting in focus – MUFG
MUFG Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman discusses the upcoming ECB policy meeting and its implications for the Euro. The EUR/USD has dipped below the 1.1800-level after reaching a high of 1.2081 last week.

MUFG Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman discusses the upcoming ECB policy meeting and its implications for the Euro. The EUR/USD has dipped below the 1.1800-level after reaching a high of 1.2081 last week. Hardman expects the ECB to maintain its current policy stance, with a higher risk of further easing rather than a rate hike. The Euro's strength has raised concerns among ECB policymakers, but significant pushback is not anticipated at the meeting.Market expectations for ECB meeting"We are not expecting today’s ECB policy meeting to provide a fresh catalyst for euro performance in the near-term. The ECB are likely to reiterate that they are comfortable with their current policy stance but are unlikely to completely rule out the prospect of further easing.""We expect the ECB to leave their policy rate on hold through 2026, but judge that there is a higher risk of another cut than a hike given inflation is likely to undershoot their target.""A couple of ECB policymakers expressed some concern over euro strength last week when EUR/USD rose briefly above 1.2000, but we doubt that they will push back strongly at today’s policy meeting."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

11:01 EUR/USD nears two-week lows with ECB interest rate decision on tap
The Euro is practically flat on Thursday, trading around 1.1800 at the time of writing after bouncing from levels near two-week lows, at 1.1777.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD ticks up to 1.1800, but remains near two-week lows.The Euro bounced up from lows as German Factory Orders rose above expectations.Investors are focusing on the ECB, which is expected to hold interest rates later on Thursday.The Euro is practically flat on Thursday, trading around 1.1800 at the time of writing after bouncing from levels near two-week lows, at 1.1777. A mild risk aversion is underpinning the US Dollar (USD), but the positive surprise on German Factory Orders has provided some support to the Euro, ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision.Equity indexes in the US and Asia have gone through significant declines, and most European indexes are set to open negatively. Quarterly earnings results by US tech giants have increased concerns about the aggressive spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI), triggering a risk-off market mood that boosts demand for the safe-haven USD.Data from the US was mixed on Wednesday. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index showed better-than-expected results, but the employment sub-index disappointed, increasing concerns about the labour market, as the ADP Employment Change report showed a poor net job creation in January.In the Eurozone economic calendar, the main focus on Thursday is the ECB, which is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged. Before that, Eurozone Retail Sales data might provide some distraction to traders, while in the US, Initial Jobless Claims and the JOLTS Job Openings will attract attention. Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.02% 0.18% 0.02% 0.09% 0.18% 0.17% 0.09% EUR -0.02% 0.16% -0.02% 0.07% 0.16% 0.15% 0.07% GBP -0.18% -0.16% -0.17% -0.08% 0.00% -0.01% -0.09% JPY -0.02% 0.02% 0.17% 0.08% 0.17% 0.13% 0.08% CAD -0.09% -0.07% 0.08% -0.08% 0.09% 0.07% 0.01% AUD -0.18% -0.16% -0.00% -0.17% -0.09% -0.01% -0.09% NZD -0.17% -0.15% 0.00% -0.13% -0.07% 0.01% -0.08% CHF -0.09% -0.07% 0.09% -0.08% -0.01% 0.09% 0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest market Movers: All eyes are on the ECBThe Euro remains on the defensive on Thursday, ahead of the ECB's interest rate decision. The central bank will, almost certainly, leave borrowing costs on hold, but investors will be attentive to changes in the rhetoric, as the recent Euro strength is raising concerns about potential deflationary effects. Any dovish hint might send the Euro to fresh lows.In the US, the ISM Services PMI confirmed that business activity kept expanding at a solid pace in January, with the index showing a steady 53.8 reading, against market expectations of a mild slowdown to 53.5. The strong activity, however, is not boosting demand for labour, as the Employment Index eased to 50.3 from 51.7 in December.Previously, the US ADP Employment Change report had raised alarms about the health of the labour market. Data from January revealed that private sector employment rose by a mere 22K, well below the market consensus of 48K, while December's reading was revised down to 37K from previous estimations of 41K.On Wednesday, German Factory Orders beat expectations with a 7.8% jump in December, against expectations of a 2.2% contraction. In November, industrial orders rose 5.7%, revised up from 5.6%.Later on the day, Eurozone Retail Sales are expected to show a 0.2% contraction in December, offsetting the previous month's 0.2% increase.In the US, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to show an increase to 212K in the week of January 30, up from 209K in the previous oneLater on, the US JOLTS Job Openings are forecast to show a mild increase to 7.2 million in December, from 7.146 million vacancies in November.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD remains pinned near the 1.1775 resistance area
The EUR/USD pair consolidates losses with support at 1.1775 in the bears' focus. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is practically flat, highlighting a neutral momentum, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) wavers near 40, indicating a bearish-leaning tone.A confirmation below the mentioned 1.1775 area (February 2, 3 lows) opens the path towards the January 23 low, at 1.1728, and the January 22 low, at 1.1670. On the upside, immediate resistance is at Wednesday's high, near 1.1840, and the previous support area, near 1.1900 (close to January 28, 29 and 30 lows).(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative. Read more. Last release: Thu Feb 05, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 7.8% Consensus: -2.2% Previous: 5.6% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

11:01 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) declined to 0.9% in December from previous 1.3%
Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) declined to 0.9% in December from previous 1.3%

11:00 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in December: Actual (-0.8%)
Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in December: Actual (-0.8%)

10:57 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Ascending 20-day EMA backs more upside
The AUD/USD pair is down 0.22% lower to near 0.6980 during the European trading session on Thursday.

10:56 GBP/JPY returns above 214.00 with BoE’s decision looming
The Pound has retraced previous losses and is trading higher against an ailing Japanese Yen in Thursday’s early London session. Bulls have pushed the pair back above 214.00 at the time of writing, on track to a five-day rally and with the 16-year high, at 215.00 coming closer.

10:44 Oil: Prices rise amid US-Iran tensions – UOB
Crude oil prices continued to rise, driven by renewed tensions between the US and Iran. Reports indicate that US President Trump has issued warnings to Iran while military forces are gathering in the region.

Crude oil prices continued to rise, driven by renewed tensions between the US and Iran. Reports indicate that US President Trump has issued warnings to Iran while military forces are gathering in the region. The London Brent oil futures increased by $1.34 to settle at $68.67 per barrel, while NY WTI rose by $1.93 to $65.14 per barrel, notes UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research Team.Oil prices increase on geopolitical concerns"Crude oil prices rose further on Wed, as conflicting reports stoked concerns about US-Iran tensions.""US President Trump renewed warnings to Iran’s leaders as US military forces gather in the region, even as diplomacy appeared to be on track, with Tehran confirming nuclear talks with the US will take place in Oman on Fri (6 Feb).""Meanwhile, EIA reported that US crude inventories fell by 3.46 million barrels last week while output in the Lower 48 dropped to the lowest since Nov 2024 as freezing temperatures disrupted drilling."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:43 Pound Sterling underperforms ahead of BoE interest rate decision
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT.

10:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades around $80.50 after paring recent losses
Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its daily losses, yet remains in the negative territory, trading around $80.50 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:29 Forex Today: BoE and ECB policy decisions to lift market volatility
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 5:

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The Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will both announce monetary policy decisions later in the session. The US economic calendar will feature the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, alongside the JOLTS Job Openings report for December.The US Dollar (USD) gathered strength against its rivals in the second half of the day on Wednesday despite the mixed macroeconomic data releases. The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that employment in the private sector rose 22K in January, missing the market expectation of 48K. On a positive note, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) held steady at 53.8, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the service sector's business activity at a robust pace. After closing in positive territory on Wednesday, the USD Index holds steady at around 97.70 in the European session on Thursday. US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.39% 0.51% 1.35% 0.54% -0.46% 0.26% 0.67% EUR -0.39% 0.08% 0.98% 0.14% -0.86% -0.11% 0.27% GBP -0.51% -0.08% 0.79% 0.06% -0.93% -0.20% 0.19% JPY -1.35% -0.98% -0.79% -0.81% -1.81% -1.02% -0.94% CAD -0.54% -0.14% -0.06% 0.81% -0.95% -0.23% 0.13% AUD 0.46% 0.86% 0.93% 1.81% 0.95% 0.75% 1.13% NZD -0.26% 0.11% 0.20% 1.02% 0.23% -0.75% 0.38% CHF -0.67% -0.27% -0.19% 0.94% -0.13% -1.13% -0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced late Wednesday that the postponed Nonfarm Payrolls data will be published next Wednesday, February 11, and the release date of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be moved to February 13 from the originally planned February 11. The ECB is widely expected to keep key rates unchanged after the February meeting. Investors, however, will pay close attention to how the ECB assesses downside risks to inflation, given the recent Euro strength and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data. Eurostat reported on Wednesday that the HICP rose 1.7% on a yearly basis in January, compared to the 1.9% increase recorded in December. After posting marginal losses on Wednesday, EUR/USD moves sideways at around 1.1800 in the European morning on Thursday.The BoE is anticipated to maintain the bank rate at 3.75%. The vote split and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's comments in the post-meeting press conference could drive Pound Sterling's valuation. As of writing, GBP/USD was down 0.2% on the day at 1.3625.Following Tuesday's rally, AUD/USD corrected lower on Wednesday. The pair struggles to regain its traction and trades below 0.7000 in the European morning.Gold extended its rebound in the first half of the day on Wednesday but met resistance above $5,000. XAU/USD edges lower early Thursday and trades below $4,950. After posting gains for two consecutive days, Silver turns south on Thursday and trades below $81, losing more than 8% on the day.USD/JPY continues to push higher and trades near 157.00 after rising nearly 0.7% on Wednesday. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

10:25 EUR: Lagarde will be asked about the euro – ING
ING analyst Chris Turner notes that the Euro has remained resilient despite recent market pressures, with a focus on the upcoming ECB press conference. President Lagarde's comments on the Euro's strength and potential downside risks to inflation will be critical for EUR/USD.

ING analyst Chris Turner notes that the Euro has remained resilient despite recent market pressures, with a focus on the upcoming ECB press conference. President Lagarde's comments on the Euro's strength and potential downside risks to inflation will be critical for EUR/USD.Euro remains resilient despite pressures"Today's challenge to EUR/USD will come from today's ECB press conference at 1445CET.""Comments from Lagarde, such as that the ECB is 'monitoring exchange rates closely' or any mention of downside risks to inflation having increased, would hit, but not bury EUR/USD.""Sub 1.1770 today could open up the 1.1700/1720 area, but we doubt EUR/USD needs to go much lower than that near term."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:06 GBP: Bank of England uncertainty with disinflation trend – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan highlights uncertainty around the Bank of England meeting, contrasting it with a more predictable ECB. He explains that quirks in data collection distorted December inflation, but underlying UK inflation is expected to trend lower.

UBS economist Paul Donovan highlights uncertainty around the Bank of England meeting, contrasting it with a more predictable ECB. He explains that quirks in data collection distorted December inflation, but underlying UK inflation is expected to trend lower. This should permit interest rate cuts later in 2026, although UBS does not expect the Bank of England to ease policy immediately.BoE path to eventual rate cuts"The Bank of England offers some uncertainty.""Weirdness in data collection timing distorted December inflation numbers, but the trend in inflation should be down.""That will allow rate cuts this year, but not just yet."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

10:01 Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous €-84.6M to €-352M in November
Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous €-84.6M to €-352M in November

10:00 European Central Bank set to hold interest rates amid stable growth, contained inflation
The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its two-day meeting and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold. ECB President Lagarde is likely to reiterate the meeting-by-meeting approach. EUR/USD remains stable above 1.1800, with buyers looking to return. The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its two-day meeting and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for the fifth consecutive meeting, leaving the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility at 2.15%, 2.4%, and 2%, respectively.Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference afterward to explain policymakers’ reasoning behind the decision. Ahead of the announcement, the EUR/USD pair trades above the 1.1800 mark, stabilizing after retracing sharply from January’s peak at 1.2082. What to expect from the ECB interest rate decision?The ECB is in a good position and plans to remain there, refraining from any further monetary policy action. The ECB was among the first major central banks to cut rates after post-pandemic inflation peaks that drove multi-decade highs in rates. President Christine Lagarde's latest mantra has been that monetary policy is in a “good place,” and is expected to repeat the message. The Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged at its December meeting, offering no fresh clues about future action. As ING noted, “The minutes of the ECB’s December meeting confirm the ECB’s wait-and-see stance in a macro environment, in which the base case looks very benign, but risks remain unusually high.”In the meantime, macroeconomic data released in the last couple of months confirm officials’ stance. The Euro area economy has not only been resilient but is finally showing signs of improvement. According to the latest Eurostat data, the European Union (EU) grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December, while the 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.6% year-on-year. In the meantime, inflation cooled down in January, as expected. Eurostat reported that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 1.7% in the year to January as expected, while easing from the 1.9% posted in December. The core HICP, which excludes volatile components such as food or energy, rose by 2.3% as anticipated, matching the previous month’s figure.Finally, it is worth remembering that, speaking after the ECB’s final Governing Council meeting, President Lagarde made it clear that, given that monetary policy is in a “good place,” this does not imply a fixed or predictable path for rates. She also emphasised the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting approach.In this scenario, the upcoming monetary policy decision is likely to be a non-event. The general consensus is that the ECB will maintain its hawkish stance and that President Lagarde will repeat the message that the ECB is in wait-and-see mode, attentive to economic developments without a pre-set monetary path. How could the ECB meeting impact EUR/USD?As previously noted, the EUR/USD pair is stable above 1.1800 ahead of the announcement, following volatile price action over the previous two weeks. The EUR/USD pair also trades roughly 300 pips below its recent peak, yet retains most of its 2025 gains. Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “Technically speaking, the EUR/USD pair bearish case seems well-limited. In the daily chart, the pair holds well above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading north above the 100 and 200 SMAs while providing support at around 1.1760. At the same time, technical indicators have picked up after nearing their midlines, presenting uneven upward strength at the time of writing.”Bednarik adds: “The EUR/USD pair bottomed at around 1.1775 earlier in the week, making the 1.1760-1.1770 area the immediate downward barrier. A slide below the level exposes the 1.1700 threshold, en route to the 1.1640 price zone. Bulls will be looking for a recovery beyond 1.1920 to add longs, aiming for a test of the 1.2000 mark.” Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings. Read more. Next release: Thu Feb 05, 2026 13:15 Frequency: Irregular Consensus: 2% Previous: 2% Source: European Central Bank Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

09:51 EUR: Price path remains driven by services and wages – BNY
BNY's report highlights that the Eurozone's labor market deterioration has slowed, but conditions are not weak enough for the ECB to consider easing.

BNY's report highlights that the Eurozone's labor market deterioration has slowed, but conditions are not weak enough for the ECB to consider easing. The report notes that Euro strength is tightening financial conditions, and risks to the export sector are increasing due to exchange rate pressures. The analysis also emphasizes the challenges posed by fiscal impulses and potential constraints on government spending.Eurozone labor market and inflation insights"The downside surprises in French and Dutch January preliminary inflation prints will likely raise more questions for the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council regarding its policy assessment. On current evidence, monetary policy is no longer 'in a good place,' nor are conditions weak enough to merit an additional pivot.""Given the risk of periodic bouts of volatility in U.S. trade relations, some structural weakness in Eurozone growth expectations will likely persist. But this is already consistent with developments in the manufacturing sector, which continues to contract in terms of output and labor.""Challenges for the export sector are already present in the policy assessment. Risks to the downside in prices arising from the exchange rate have increased – as flagged in recent commentary – but services demand is far less sensitive to exchange rates."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:45 France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (0.2%) in December
France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (0.2%) in December

09:38 NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds losses near 0.6000, nine-day EMA
NZD/USD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5990 during the early European hours on Thursday. The technical analysis of the daily chart signals a potential for bearish reversal as the pair price is positioned slightly below the lower ascending channel boundary.

09:38 USD: Services strength and inflation signals support – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the ISM services index rose to 53.8, its highest since late 2024, while the prices paid component climbed to 66.6, a strong leading indicator for US inflation.

Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the ISM services index rose to 53.8, its highest since late 2024, while the prices paid component climbed to 66.6, a strong leading indicator for US inflation. ADP private payrolls disappointed at 22k, but Treasury curves steepened, with 10‑year yields edging higher. The Dollar Index rose to 97.80 area, reflecting a broadly supportive US macro backdrop.Dollar Index shows slight increase"Meanwhile, the US data yesterday continued to paint a broadly positive picture. The ISM services print came in at 53.8 (vs. 53.5 expected), which is its highest level since late-2024.""Moreover, the prices paid component ticked back up to 66.6 (vs. 65.0 expected), and that’s been a strong leading indicator for US inflation, which added to concern on that front.""Meanwhile, the ADP’s report of private payrolls also came out weaker than expected in January at 22k (vs. 45k expected), with a slight downward revision to prior months.""Treasury yields were mixed in response, with the 2yr yield falling -1.6bps amid the risk-off mood but 10yr (+1.0bps to 4.28%) and 30yr (+2.3bps to 4.92%) yields continuing to rise."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

09:08 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Keeps bearish vibe under the 100-day EMA below 1.3700
The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.3690 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

09:02 German Factory Orders jumps by 7.8% MoM in December vs. -2.2% expected
Germany's Factory Orders unexpectedly jumped in December, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector activity continues to gain momentum, according to the official data published by the Federal Statistics Office on Thursday.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) climbed from previous 10.5% to 13% in December
Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) climbed from previous 10.5% to 13% in December

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (-2.2%) in December: Actual (7.8%)
Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (-2.2%) in December: Actual (7.8%)

09:00 BoE expected to keep interest rate steady amid sticky inflation, cooling job market
The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday.

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.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of England is expected to keep its policy rate at 3.75%.UK inflation figures remain well above the BoE’s target.GBP/USD regains part of last week’s losses, hovering around 1.3700.The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday.Most analysts think the ‘Old Lady’ will sit tight, keeping the base rate at 3.75% after the cut delivered back on December 18. Alongside the decision, the bank will also release the Minutes, which should shed a bit more light on how policymakers weighed the arguments around the table.Markets are firmly priced for no move this time. However, the case for further easing hasn’t gone away, even if the BoE chooses to stay patient for now, as the UK economy struggles to gain any real traction and the fiscal backdrop continues to darken.Inflation keeps running hotThe BoE’s December rate cut was a close-run thing. The 25 basis point move, which took the bank rate down to 3.75%, was carried by a narrow 5–4 vote. Indeed, members Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor all backed a cut, but it was Governor Bailey’s switch that proved decisive, underlining just how finely balanced the debate around further easing has become.The message from the guidance was still cautiously dovish but noticeably more conditional. Policymakers stuck with the idea that rates are likely to move lower over time, describing a “gradual downward path”, while making it clear that each additional cut will be harder to justify. As policy drifts closer to neutral, the room for manoeuvre is shrinking, and the judgement calls are getting tougher.The macro backdrop allows for further easing, but not with haste. Growth momentum has faded, with the economy expected to flatline in Q4, and inflation is projected to fall back more quickly in the near term, moving closer to the target by mid-2026. At the same time, lingering inflation bumps and a labour market that is only cooling slowly argue against flagging an aggressive cut cycle.All told, December looks less like the start of a rush to ease and more like a careful recalibration. The Bank is still edging in an easier direction, but with rising caution as rates approach neutral and decisions become ever more dependent on incoming data.According to the BoE’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP) published on January 8, businesses are growing a touch less punchy on pay, as firms now expect wages to rise by 3.7% over the 12 months from the final quarter of 2025, a shade lower than the pace they were expecting just a month earlier.Additionally, companies are reducing their expectations for price increases in the upcoming year, which resulted in a 0.1 percentage point decrease to 3.6% in the three months to December.And it’s not just wages and prices. Firms have also become slightly more cautious on hiring, with expectations for employment growth over the next year softening a little, according to the survey.How will the BoE interest rate decision impact GBP/USD?Many people expect the BoE will keep the reference rate at 3.75% when it makes its announcement on Thursday at 12:00 GMT.The real focus will be on how the MPC votes, since a hold is already fully priced in. If the British Pound (GBP) moves in a way that isn't expected, it could be because it suggests a change in how policymakers are getting ready for future decisions.Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, notes that GBP/USD has come under fresh downside pressure soon after hitting yearly peaks near 1.3870 in late January, an area last traded in September 2021.“Once Cable clears this level, it could then attempt a move to the September 2021 high at 1.3913 (September 14) ahead of the July 2021 peak at 1.3983 (July 30)”, Piovano adds.On the other hand, Piovano says that “the critical 200-day SMA at 1.3421 emerges as the immediate contention in case sellers regain the upper hand prior to the 2026 floor at 1.3338 (January 19).”“Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 61 suggests further gains remain in the pipeline in the near term, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 30 indicates a pretty strong trend,” he concludes.
Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period. Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP. Read more. Last release: Thu Dec 18, 2025 12:00 Frequency: Irregular Actual: 3.75% Consensus: 3.75% Previous: 4% Source: Bank of England

08:54 GBP: Interest rate outlook uncertain – Commerzbank
Commerzbank's Michael Pfister analyzes the Bank of England's current stance on interest rates, highlighting the potential for surprises despite no expected changes at the upcoming meeting.

Commerzbank's Michael Pfister analyzes the Bank of England's current stance on interest rates, highlighting the potential for surprises despite no expected changes at the upcoming meeting. The report notes the delicate balance the BoE faces between persistent inflation and weakening growth, suggesting that the risks to the Pound may lean towards further interest rate cuts.Bank of England's cautious approach"If the vote is closer than expected, the market will likely bring forward its expectations of a rate cut and the pound will suffer.""On the other hand, the new forecasts will be published, the first since the budget announcement at the end of November. It will be interesting to see how the decision-makers assess the impact.""As inflation has repeatedly been lower than expected in recent months, the inflation forecast is likely to be revised downwards. The only question is how sharp the correction will be.""However, we suspect that the risks to the pound are currently more one-sided and that there is a greater danger of seeing signs of further interest rate cuts."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

08:44 WTI declines to near $63.50 as US-Iran talks ease supply fears
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price declines after two days of gains, trading around $63.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday.

08:21 AUD/JPY retraces to near 109.00 as Yen rebounds, outlook remains upbeat
The AUD/JPY pair is down to 0.4% to near 109.20 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The cross retraces from its lifetime high of 110.1 posted on Wednesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains temporary ground after a three-day fall.

08:21 EUR/USD: Consolidation likely ahead – UOB
According to UOB's report, authored by Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann, the Euro is expected to continue consolidating, likely between the 1.1775 and 1.1830 levels. The report notes that the previous expectations for consolidation were met, although within a narrower range than anticipated.

According to UOB's report, authored by Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann, the Euro is expected to continue consolidating, likely between the 1.1775 and 1.1830 levels. The report notes that the previous expectations for consolidation were met, although within a narrower range than anticipated. The downside risk for the Euro remains, with potential support identified at 1.1725.Further consolidation expected"Yesterday, we expected EUR to “consolidate between 1.1790 and 1.1855.” Our view of consolidation was not wrong, even though EUR traded within a narrower range than expected.""Price action continues to suggest downside risk for EUR, and it could drop toward the next support at 1.1725.""Overall, only a breach of 1.1875 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1890 yesterday) would indicate that the downside risk from early this week has faded."(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

08:09 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Positive outlook remains intact near 185.00, all eyes on ECB rate decision
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory near 185.00 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders might turn cautious ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision later in the day.

07:39 USD/INR ticks down on continued Indian Rupee’s outperformance
The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair trades subduedly around 90.50 as the Indian Rupee holds United States (US)-India trade truce-driven gains.

07:38 GBP/JPY moves away from 18-year peak, hangs above mid-213.00s as traders await BoE
The GBP/JPY cross extends the previous day's late pullback from the 215.00 psychological mark, or a fresh high since January 2008, and drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:22 USD/CHF gains ground above 0.7750 as Fed chair nomination supports US Dollar
The USD/CHF pair holds positive ground near 0.7780 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Analysts expect the Greenback’s recovery will be short-lived as traders remain concerned about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.

07:18 EUR/GBP trades higher around 0.8650 ahead of BoE-ECB policy decision
The EUR/GBP pair trades slightly higher to near 0.8652 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The pair edges up as the Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms ahead of the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England (BoE) at 12:00 GMT.

07:04 Gold falls on firmer USD; shows resilience below $4,800 amid dovish Fed, geopolitics
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling following the overnight failure ahead of the $5,100 mark and dives to sub-$4,800 levels during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:00 Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -5.4% (December) vs previous 0%
Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -5.4% (December) vs previous 0%

07:00 Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.7% in December from previous 6.3%
Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.7% in December from previous 6.3%

06:41 US Dollar Index rises to near 98.00 due to Fed hawkish signals
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive session and is trading around 97.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:22 EUR/USD softens below 1.1800 ahead of ECB rate decision
The EUR/USD pair loses ground to around 1.1785 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the US Dollar (USD) as Eurozone inflation declined well below target ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision.

06:14 GBP/USD falls toward 1.3600 ahead of BoE policy decision
GBP/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.3620 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair weakens as the Pound Sterling (GBP) comes under pressure ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision later in the day.

06:10 Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.86%, above forecasts (0.68%) in 4Q
Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.86%, above forecasts (0.68%) in 4Q

06:10 Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 5.39%, above expectations (5.01%) in 4Q
Indonesia Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 5.39%, above expectations (5.01%) in 4Q

05:52 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades near $77.00 after plunging over 10%
Silver price (XAG/USD) plunged over 10% after two days of gains, trading around $77.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver prices fall as precious metals face renewed selling pressure and increased volatility.

05:19 Japanese Yen struggles near two-week low vs. USD amid fiscal and political woes
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance on the back of worries about the country's financial health, fueled by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal plans.

04:46 USD/CAD rises toward 1.3700 as pace for potential Fed rate cuts slows
USD/CAD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.3680 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair is supported by a firmer US Dollar (USD) as markets price in a slower pace of potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.

04:32 NZD/USD declines below 0.6000 amid rising New Zealand Unemployment Rate
The NZD/USD pair trades on a softer note near 0.5980 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower against the Greenback amid rising Unemployment Rates in New Zealand. Federal Reserve (Fed) Atlanta President Raphael Bostic is set to speak later on Thursday.

04:17 Australian Dollar steadies following Trade Balance data
The Australian Dollar (AUD) moves little against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday following the release of Australia’s Trade Balance data, which showed the trade surplus widened to AUD 3,373M in December 2025, up from a downwardly revised AUD 2,597M in November and slightly above market expectations

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Imports fell 0.8% MoM, steeper than the downwardly revised 0.2% decline previously, weighed down by other merchandise goods.China's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in January from 52.0 in December. This figure came in stronger than the expectations of 51.8. China is a key trading partner of Australia, so any changes in the Chinese economy could impact the AUD.The AUD rose after the release of seasonally adjusted S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, which showed Australia’s Composite PMI rising to 55.7 in January from 51.0 in December. The expansion was the strongest in 45 months. Meanwhile, Services PMI climbed to 56.3 from 51.1, marking its highest level since February 2022. The reading beat the flash estimate of 56.0 and remained above the 50.0 threshold, extending the run of expanding services activity to two years.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.85% on Tuesday, citing stronger-than-expected growth and a sticky inflation outlook. As the tightening cycle begins, markets have lifted the probability of a May hike to 80% and now price in roughly 40 bps of further tightening over the rest of the year.RBA Governor Michele Bullock said during the post-meeting press conference that inflation pressures remain too strong, warning it will take longer to return to target and is no longer acceptable. She stressed the board will stay data-dependent and avoid forward guidance.US Dollar holds ground after registering modest gainsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, steadied after registering modest gains in the previous session and is trading near 97.60 at the time of writing.The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not publish the January employment report on Friday as scheduled because of the partial government shutdown that began last weekend. The shutdown ended late Tuesday after US President Donald Trump signed a funding deal negotiated with Senate Democrats, despite ongoing tensions over his immigration crackdown.Monday’s data showed an unexpected rebound in US factory activity, underscoring economic resilience, as the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 from 47.9 in December, beating market expectations of 48.5.US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. Markets interpreted Warsh’s appointment as signaling a more disciplined and cautious approach to monetary easing.The US Dollar gained traction as risk sentiment improved after the US Senate reached an agreement to advance a government funding package, thereby averting a shutdown, according to Politico.US producer-side inflation firmed, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and reinforcing the central bank’s policy stance. US PPI inflation holds steady at 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) in December, unchanged from November and above expectations for a moderation to 2.7%. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, accelerated to 3.3% YoY from 3.0%, defying forecasts for a decline to 2.9% and highlighting persistent upstream price pressures.St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate cuts are not warranted at this stage, characterizing the current 3.50%–3.75% policy rate range as broadly neutral. Similarly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged patience, arguing that monetary policy should remain modestly restrictive.Australia’s RBA Trimmed Mean inflation increased to 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and 3.3% year-over-year (YoY). The monthly CPI rose 1.0% in December, up from 0% previously and above the 0.7% forecast.Australia’s export prices rose 3.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q4 2025, rebounding from a 0.9% fall in Q3 and marking the first increase in three quarters, as well as the strongest gain in a year. Meanwhile, import prices climbed 0.9%, beating expectations for a 0.2% decline and reversing a 0.4% drop in Q3.China's RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 in December. This figure came in line with the expectations. The latest reading indicated a slight expansion in factory activity, but the fastest growth since last October.Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose 3.6% year-over-year (YoY) in January, up from 3.5% previously. The Monthly Inflation Gauge increased by 0.2%, slowing sharply from December’s two-year high of 1% and marking the weakest pace since August.ANZ Job Advertisements jumped 4.4% month-over-month (MoM) in December 2025, rebounding from a revised 0.8% decline and posting the first increase since July. The rise was also the strongest monthly gain since February 2022, signaling renewed momentum in hiring toward year-end.Australian Dollar tests 0.7100 support near lower ascending channel boundaryThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.7000 on Thursday. Daily chart analysis indicates that the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 69; it typically signals bullish momentum.The AUD/USD pair may target 0.7094, the highest level since February 2023, which was recorded on January 29. A break above this level would support the pair to test the upper ascending channel boundary around 0.7250. On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the channel around 0.6990, followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6965. Further declines would put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at 0.6767.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.01% 0.03% -0.02% 0.00% -0.03% 0.03% -0.02% EUR 0.00% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% -0.02% 0.04% -0.01% GBP -0.03% -0.03% -0.04% -0.02% -0.05% 0.00% -0.04% JPY 0.02% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% -0.01% 0.02% 0.00% CAD 0.00% -0.01% 0.02% -0.01% -0.02% 0.03% -0.02% AUD 0.03% 0.02% 0.05% 0.01% 0.02% 0.06% 0.01% NZD -0.03% -0.04% -0.01% -0.02% -0.03% -0.06% -0.05% CHF 0.02% 0.00% 0.04% -0.00% 0.02% -0.01% 0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:07 US President Donald Trump says Warsh would’ve lost Fed if he pledged rate hike
US President Donald Trump said that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh as his nominee to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) if Warsh had expressed a desire to hike interest rates, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

03:19 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises above $5,000 as ongoing US-Iran tensions boost safe-haven demand
Gold price (XAU/USD) jumps to around $5,005 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal rebounds following a period of intense volatility. Traders weigh the next round of US economic signals and the broader demand for safe-haven assets.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9570 vs. 6.9533 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.9570 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.9533 and 6.9468 Reuters estimate.

03:13 WTI stabilizes around $64.00 as traders eye US-Iran talks amid supply glut risks
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices seem to have stabilized following the previous day's good two-way price moves and traded around the $64.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.

03:01 Ireland AIB Services PMI dipped from previous 54.8 to 54.5 in January
Ireland AIB Services PMI dipped from previous 54.8 to 54.5 in January

02:32 Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 3373M, above expectations (3300M) in December
Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 3373M, above expectations (3300M) in December

02:32 Australia Exports (MoM) up to 1% in December from previous -2.9%
Australia Exports (MoM) up to 1% in December from previous -2.9%

02:31 Australia Imports (MoM): -0.8% (December) vs previous 0.2%
Australia Imports (MoM): -0.8% (December) vs previous 0.2%

01:54 USD/JPY climbs above 156.50 amid Japan’s fiscal concerns
The USD/JPY pair extends the rally to around 156.85 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens to a two-week low against the US Dollar (USD) amid concern over Japan's fiscal health under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary spending policy.

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks rose from previous ¥328.1B to ¥494.6B in January 30
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks rose from previous ¥328.1B to ¥494.6B in January 30

01:43 Fed's Cook: Risks are skewed toward higher inflation
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday that risks are skewed toward higher inflation, adding that she’s optimistic about inflation's path yet cautious and vigilant.

01:11 Silver Price Analysis: Gradual recovery underway as momentum turns constructive
Silver price extended its recovery for the second straight day, up by 3.75% shrugging off broad US Dollar strength, following the release of solid US economic data. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $88.20, after bouncing off daily lows of $83.28.

01:03 When is the Australian Trade Data and how it could affect AUD/USD?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its data for December on Thursday at 00.30 GMT. Australia’s Trade Surplus is expected to widen to 3,300M MoM in December, compared to 2,936M in November.

00:32 GBP/USD churns near 1.3700 ahead of BoE rate call
GBP/USD remains trapped in a near-term cycling pattern on Wednesday, continuing to churn aimlessly between 1.3700 and 1.3650.

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Forex News Timeline

22:43 Crude Oil slips as US-Iran talk tensions ease, WTI tests $63 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trimmed a little bit off the top of barrel bids on Thursday, falling around $0.95 per barrel, or 1.5%.

22:06 JPY: Japan election risk impacts yen – MUFG Lee Hardman, Senior Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes the impact of Japan's election risk on the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY has risen above the 157.00-level, driven by expectations that the ruling coalition will strengthen its majority.

21:16 BoC’s Macklem: I welcome the nomination of Kevin Warsh Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said that he welcomes the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. In a speech at the Empire Club in Toronto on Thursday.

21:00 Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (7%) Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (7%)

20:59 Forex Today: BoE dovish hold sinks GBP, DXY surges and Gold slips Financial markets revolved around European central banks’ monetary policy decisions.

20:35 China: January PMIs signal potential easing – MUFG MUFG's report highlights that China's January PMIs have shown disappointing results, with the Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.3 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.4.

20:22 Gold slides nearly 2% as US Dollar strength triggers fresh liquidation Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles during the North American session on Thursday as precious metals continue their liquidation mode, while the Greenback recovers some ground amid worse-than-expected economic data in the US.

20:04 Germany: A sign of life from industry – Commerzbank Commerzbank's Economic Research report highlights a significant rise in German industrial orders, which increased by 7.8% in December, marking the second consecutive month of growth.

19:38 Canadian Dollar edges lower against Greenback as risk-off flows dominate The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed some scant weight against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, backsliding a slim 0.05%.

19:20 AUD/USD weakens as US Dollar gains on hawkish Fed signals AUD/USD trades lower on Thursday and is hovering around 0.6965 at the time of writing, down 0.45% on the day.

19:02 JPY: Election impacts on economy and bonds – ING ING analysts Min Joo Kang, Chris Turner, and Padhraic Garvey provide insights into the upcoming Japanese election and its implications for the economy, bonds, and the Yen.

18:33 United States 4-Week Bill Auction remains unchanged at 3.63% United States 4-Week Bill Auction remains unchanged at 3.63%

18:19 Dow Jones Industrial Average sinks as markets flee to safety The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) took another header on Thursday, tumbling 650 points and following the rest of the market lower as investors rotate firmly into a flight for safety.

18:09 EUR/CAD steady as ECB holds rates, Canadian Dollar pressured by weak Oil prices EUR/CAD trades around 1.6130 on Thursday at the time of writing, virtually unchanged on the day, as markets digest the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision and monitor Canada-specific factors.

18:02 US Treasury Bessent: Warsh is highly qualified Senate Banking Committee

18:02 CHF: Imported deflation and limited SNB options – Commerzbank The report by Commerzbank, authored by Michael Pfister, discusses the challenges faced by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in managing the strong Swiss Franc (CHF) and its implications for inflation.

17:30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -360B, above forecasts (-379B) in January 30 United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -360B, above forecasts (-379B) in January 30

17:28 Emerging Markets: Commodity prices not a cure-all for inflation – BNY BNY's analysis indicates that while higher commodity prices have stabilized associated assets, they are not expected to lead to structural changes in emerging markets.

17:00 United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.2M) in December: Actual (6.542M) United States JOLTS Job Openings below forecasts (7.2M) in December: Actual (6.542M)

16:29 MXN: Banxico's cautious stance – Commerzbank In the latest analysis from Commerzbank, Michael Pfister discusses the Mexican central bank's likely decision to maintain interest rates.

16:18 Lagarde speech: Policy is agile, prepared to do what is necessary Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:11 GBP: Strength expected to pause – TD Securities TD Securities' report by Julie Ioffe discusses the recent decision by the Bank of England to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%. The dovish lean in the voting suggests potential cuts in the near future.

16:06 Lagarde speech: We have no exchange rate target Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

16:03 GBP/JPY falls sharply as dovish BoE decision pressures Pound Sterling GBP/JPY trades around 212.70 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.70% on the day, as Pound Sterling (GBP) comes under strong pressure following the Bank of England’s policy announcement.

15:58 Lagarde speech: Stronger Euro could bring inflation down more than expected Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:56 Lagarde speech: Uncertainty could weigh on demand Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the February policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

15:44 US: Initial Jobless Claims increased to 231K last week The number of United States (US) citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance rose to 231K for the week ending January 31.

15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.85M) in January 23: Actual (1.844M) United States Continuing Jobless Claims below forecasts (1.85M) in January 23: Actual (1.844M)

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average climbed from previous 206.25K to 212.25K in January 30 United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average climbed from previous 206.25K to 212.25K in January 30

15:30 United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 231K above expectations (212K) in January 30 United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 231K above expectations (212K) in January 30

15:18 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets forecasts (2.15%) Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate meets forecasts (2.15%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%) Eurozone ECB Rate On Deposit Facility meets forecasts (2%)

15:15 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate came in at 2%, below expectations (2.15%) Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate came in at 2%, below expectations (2.15%)

15:02 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $826.8B from previous $786.9B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $826.8B from previous $786.9B

15:02 Russia Central Bank Reserves $ rose from previous $786.9B to $826B Russia Central Bank Reserves $ rose from previous $786.9B to $826B

14:46 Silver: Plunges another 17% amid volatility – BNY Silver prices have plunged another 17%, erasing a brief recovery and reflecting extreme volatility in precious metals. The renewed drop follows a historic rout, with prices falling significantly below earlier highs.

14:31 EUR/GBP rallies above 0.8700 after BoE’s dovish hold The Euro (EUR) is drawing support for a weaker British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision. The pair has jumped to a fresh one-week high beyond 0.8700, from the 0.8660 area.

14:30 United States Challenger Job Cuts up to 108.435K in January from previous 35.553K United States Challenger Job Cuts up to 108.435K in January from previous 35.553K

14:20 EUR: ECB remains on hold – TD Securities According to TD Securities, the European Central Bank is anticipated to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00% with no significant changes in its communication.

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets forecasts (0) United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Hike meets forecasts (0)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 5 below forecasts (7) United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged came in at 5 below forecasts (7)

14:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (3.75%) United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (3.75%)

13:27 GBP: Political uncertainty weighs heavily – BBH The British Pound and gilts have declined sharply due to political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership.

13:05 USD/JPY extends winning streak on USD’s continued outperformance The USD/JPY extends its winning streak for the fifth trading day on Thursday, trades 0.26% higher to near 156.20. The pair advances further due to continued outperformance from the US Dollar (USD).

12:08 USD/CHF Price Forecasts: Support at 0.7740 keeps holding bears The US Dollar is flat against the Swiss Franc on Thursday, trading around 0.7780 at the time of writing.

12:04 Eurozone Retail Sales falls 0.5% MoM in December vs. 0.1% growth Eurozone Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, declines 0.5% month-on-month (MoM) in December, faster than estimates of 0.2% fall. In November, the consumer spending measure rose by 0.1%, revised lower from 0.2%.

12:01 France 10-y Bond Auction down to 3.38% from previous 3.53% France 10-y Bond Auction down to 3.38% from previous 3.53%

12:00 Spain 3-y Bond Auction declined to 2.341% from previous 2.342% Spain 3-y Bond Auction declined to 2.341% from previous 2.342%

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (-0.2%) in December Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (-0.2%) in December

12:00 Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in December: Actual (1.3%) Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in December: Actual (1.3%)

11:44 Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction: 3.223% vs 1.508% Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction: 3.223% vs 1.508%

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $78.42 per troy ounce, down 10.33% from the $87.45 it cost on Wednesday.

11:30 United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI: 46.4 (January) vs 40.1 United Kingdom S&P Global Construction PMI: 46.4 (January) vs 40.1

11:04 EUR/USD: ECB policy meeting in focus – MUFG MUFG Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman discusses the upcoming ECB policy meeting and its implications for the Euro. The EUR/USD has dipped below the 1.1800-level after reaching a high of 1.2081 last week.

11:01 EUR/USD nears two-week lows with ECB interest rate decision on tap The Euro is practically flat on Thursday, trading around 1.1800 at the time of writing after bouncing from levels near two-week lows, at 1.1777.

11:01 Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) declined to 0.9% in December from previous 1.3% Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) declined to 0.9% in December from previous 1.3%

11:00 Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in December: Actual (-0.8%) Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) below expectations (0.4%) in December: Actual (-0.8%)

10:57 AUD/USD Price Forecast: Ascending 20-day EMA backs more upside The AUD/USD pair is down 0.22% lower to near 0.6980 during the European trading session on Thursday.

10:44 Oil: Prices rise amid US-Iran tensions – UOB Crude oil prices continued to rise, driven by renewed tensions between the US and Iran. Reports indicate that US President Trump has issued warnings to Iran while military forces are gathering in the region.

10:43 Pound Sterling underperforms ahead of BoE interest rate decision The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades lower against its major currency peers on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT.

10:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades around $80.50 after paring recent losses Silver price (XAG/USD) pares its daily losses, yet remains in the negative territory, trading around $80.50 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Thursday.

10:29 Forex Today: BoE and ECB policy decisions to lift market volatility Here is what you need to know on Thursday, February 5:

10:01 Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous €-84.6M to €-352M in November Austria Trade Balance dipped from previous €-84.6M to €-352M in November

10:00 European Central Bank set to hold interest rates amid stable growth, contained inflation The European Central Bank (ECB) is holding its two-day meeting and will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

09:51 EUR: Price path remains driven by services and wages – BNY BNY's report highlights that the Eurozone's labor market deterioration has slowed, but conditions are not weak enough for the ECB to consider easing.

09:45 France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (0.2%) in December France Industrial Output (MoM) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (0.2%) in December

09:38 USD: Services strength and inflation signals support – Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank analysts highlight that the ISM services index rose to 53.8, its highest since late 2024, while the prices paid component climbed to 66.6, a strong leading indicator for US inflation.

09:08 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Keeps bearish vibe under the 100-day EMA below 1.3700 The USD/CAD pair gathers strength to near 1.3690 during the early European trading hours on Thursday.

09:01 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) climbed from previous 10.5% to 13% in December Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) climbed from previous 10.5% to 13% in December

09:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (-2.2%) in December: Actual (7.8%) Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) above forecasts (-2.2%) in December: Actual (7.8%)

09:00 BoE expected to keep interest rate steady amid sticky inflation, cooling job market The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday.

08:54 GBP: Interest rate outlook uncertain – Commerzbank Commerzbank's Michael Pfister analyzes the Bank of England's current stance on interest rates, highlighting the potential for surprises despite no expected changes at the upcoming meeting.

08:44 WTI declines to near $63.50 as US-Iran talks ease supply fears West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price declines after two days of gains, trading around $63.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Thursday.

07:39 USD/INR ticks down on continued Indian Rupee’s outperformance The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday. The USD/INR pair trades subduedly around 90.50 as the Indian Rupee holds United States (US)-India trade truce-driven gains.

07:38 GBP/JPY moves away from 18-year peak, hangs above mid-213.00s as traders await BoE The GBP/JPY cross extends the previous day's late pullback from the 215.00 psychological mark, or a fresh high since January 2008, and drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:04 Gold falls on firmer USD; shows resilience below $4,800 amid dovish Fed, geopolitics Gold (XAU/USD) attracts heavy selling following the overnight failure ahead of the $5,100 mark and dives to sub-$4,800 levels during the Asian session on Thursday.

07:00 Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -5.4% (December) vs previous 0% Singapore Retail Sales (MoM): -5.4% (December) vs previous 0%

07:00 Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.7% in December from previous 6.3% Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) down to 2.7% in December from previous 6.3%

06:41 US Dollar Index rises to near 98.00 due to Fed hawkish signals The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive session and is trading around 97.80 during the Asian hours on Thursday.