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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Data released today showed that existing home sales rose 1.9% during October. Lower mortgage rates continue to boost sales, which are up 4.6% over the

Data released today showed that existing home sales rose 1.9% during October. Lower mortgage rates continue to boost sales, which are up 4.6% over the year, explained analysts at Wells Fargo. They point out inventories are shrinking once again, however they see some upward pressure on home prices. Key Quotes:  “The housing market continues to move in the right direction thanks to lower mortgage rates. Existing home sales rose a solid 1.9% in October to a 5.46 million-unit pace. Resales are up 4.6% over the past 12 months. Single-family resales, which increased 2.1%, accounted for most of the gain.” “While the recent improvement in resales is encouraging, the gains over the past few months represent a reversal of last year’s higher mortgage rate-induced slide. Furthermore, the recent improvement likely reflects a return to the slow and steady upward trajectory which has become a hallmark of this expansion.” “With fewer homes for sale, prices are rising a little more briskly. The median existing single-family home price rose 6.2% year-over-year to $273,600, the fastest increase since July 2017. This presents a fundamental challenge, as 38.2% of single-family sales during October were priced between $100-250K, more than any other price range.” “While mortgage rates have ticked higher in recent weeks, they remain historically low, averaging 3.7% during October, and will likely continue to support demand for resales. Mortgage applications for purchase have risen solidly in three of the past four weeks and are up 7.3% over the past year as of November 15.”
 

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6787 and oscillates between a range of 0.6785 and 0.6814 on the day so far. Trade wars and the RBA are the main them

AUD/USD fails to garner demand on the back of less pessimistic trade war headlines. RBA sentiment remains dovish in the markets. AUD/USD slides towards a critical Fib target area. AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6787 and oscillates between a range of 0.6785 and 0.6814 on the day so far. Trade wars and the RBA are the main themes, while from a technical standpoint, AUD/USD has been respecting the descending 200-hour moving average's resistance and is trading back down below the 21-hour moving average, en-route to test a key Fibonacci retracement level. RBA themes From a fundamental point of view, the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish stance is factored into the price and, "markets are pricing a 25% chance of easing at the December RBA meeting, and a terminal rate of 0.46% (RBA cash rate currently at 0.75%)," according to analysts at Westpac. A growth rebound is likely a long way off and considering the latest RBA minutes where a November cut was actively discussed. If global/domestic economic developments nor geopolitical events December don't force the hand of the RBA, then another rate cut at the RBA’s next forecast update in February 2020 could be on the cards – "The Board noted the long and variable lags in the effects of monetary policy and wanted to wait for a full assessment. In our view, this points to another rate cut at the RBA’s next forecast update in February 2020," analysts at ANZ Bank argued.  US-China themes AUD/USD trades as a proxy to what goes down in 'China Town'. Meaning, AUD is closely correlated to events related to Chinese economic and political events and headlines. Currently, the market's main focus is on the Sino/US trade war. On Thursday, there was a mild risk-on tone to markets due to positive US-China headlines stemming from both a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article and the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reporting on the mater – The WSJ stated that China’s top trade negotiator invited his US counterparts to a new round of face-to-face talks. The SCMP wrote that the "US may be willing to delay the 15 December tariffs if an agreement is not reached by then," but, as analysts at ANZ  Bank argued, "it’s fair to say that some signs of trade-headline fatigue are emerging in markets." Overall, neither of these articles were sufficient enough to prevent equities nor the Aussie from sliding.  AUD/USD levels AUD/USD remains capped below the 200-hour moving average's resistance and slid back below the  21-hour moving average. Bears are currently en-route to test a key Fibonacci retracement level.  

Despite weaker economic fundamentals, analysts at CIBC expect the British pound to appreciate into year-end on the back of domestic politics, and furt

Despite weaker economic fundamentals, analysts at CIBC expect the British pound  to appreciate into year-end on the back of domestic politics, and further next year, following anticipated progress in Brexit negotiations. Key Quotes:  “Looking into year-end, the UK is facing an election (December 12th) against a backdrop of increasingly downbeat fundamentals. While the economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q3, it still expanded by 0.3% q/q, with the annual rate retreating to its lowest in almost a decade, at 1.0% y/y.” “Recent job data showed vacancies registering the largest annual decline since 2009, while the country’s total labour force declined by 58K in Q3 – the worst print in four years." “While waning macro fundamentals are partially a function of slowing global growth, Brexit remains the primary constituent of domestic uncertainty and the weakening economic backdrop. The UK has now passed its third Brexit deadline, and the outcome of the upcoming election will determine whether the market can expect at least some form of resolution, as Parliament is supportive of the recently revised and negotiated withdrawal agreement.” “Despite weakening economic fundamentals, our base case scenario is for the Conservatives to gain a majority in the upcoming election, though it could be by a tight margin. Furthermore, given that we expect progress to be made on the Brexit process next year, that should see Sterling rally towards highs reached in May. However, given the imminent election, expect Sterling bulls to remain contained in the near-term.”

Trump Weighs a new trade investigation to justify tariffs on EU, in an article written in the Politico. Introduction paragraph Trump administration of

Trump Weighs a new trade investigation to justify tariffs on EU, in an article written in the Politico. Introduction paragraph Trump administration officials are considering whether to start a new trade investigation against the European Union as the window closes for hitting Brussels with automobile tariffs, according to multiple people briefed on the issue. Such a move would mean that European auto imports wouldn't be subject to duties out of national security concerns, but the trading bloc would be subject to a much broader inquiry, the people said -  Politico. FX implications: More to come ... 

The EUR/USD pair continued to decline during the American session and bottomed at 1.1055, slightly above yesterday’s low. Earlier today the pair reach

Euro looking weaker from a technical perspective against the US dollar. Greenback rises across the board during the American session on the back of higher US yields. The EUR/USD pair continued to decline during the American session and bottomed at 1.1055, slightly above yesterday’s low. Earlier today the pair reached at 1.1095, the highest level in two weeks but then reversed.  Still, the pair holds in a consolidation range, unable to recover 1.1100 but now closer to the lower limit that is seen at 1.1050. A break lower would likely increase the bearish pressure. Also, it is back below the 20-day moving average. On the upside, the euro needs to avoid a close under 1.1060 to retain some support while a break on top of 1.1100 would clear the way to further gains.  The greenback gained momentum during the American session amid rising US yields. The 10-year climbed to 1.78%, rebounding from the two-week lows. The DXY is up, back at the 98.00 area. “Today’s economic agenda was focused on the U.S. with mixed data. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook improved more than expected in November (10.4, cons. 6, previous 5.6), but last week’s initial jobless claims and existing home sales disappointed”, explained BBVA analysts. Tomorrow data to be released includes preliminary Markit PMIs from the Eurozone and also the US. Trade developments continues to be a critical driver in market sentiment and headlines will be watched closely. 
   

US House Democrat Neal: No deal on USMCA today... Key comments: Progress was made. Could be discussed later in year. FX implications: More to come...

US House Democrat Neal: No deal on USMCA today... Key comments: Progress was made. Could be discussed later in year. FX implications: More to come...

The Global Times Chief in Editor, Hu Xijin , as crossed the wires via Twitter with the following statement: "The US has the upper hand in US-China tra

The Global Times Chief in Editor, Hu Xijin , as crossed the wires via Twitter with the following statement: "The US has the upper hand in US-China trade war, which allows it to decide when to end the trade war, but far from enough for it to decide how to end the trade war. The US side wants both, then it needs to change an adversary." FX implications: More to come...

The USD/JPY pair rose modestly in the last hour boosted by the improving market sentiment and was last seen trading at 108.65, adding 0.05% on a daily

10-year US Treasury bond yield adds 2.5% on Thursday.Hopes of US delaying December tariff hike boosts sentiment.US Dollar Index rebounds to 98 in American session.The USD/JPY pair rose modestly in the last hour boosted by the improving market sentiment and was last seen trading at 108.65, adding 0.05% on a daily basis. Earlier in the day, Chinese news outlet South China Morning Post (SCMP) said that the White House could delay the tariff hike on Chinese imports in December and caused safe-haven assets to lose interest. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which closed the previous three days in the negative territory, staged a decisive recovery and was last seen up 2.55% on the day at 1.785%. "There is still some modicum of optimism that a watered-down deal can be reached before new US tariffs go into effect on December 15, but even if the deal proves elusive, sources say it is likely they will be at least postponed," the SCMP reported. Upbeat data helps USD gather strength On the other hand, the US Dollar Index capitalized on Thursday's inspiring macroeconomic data releases and advanced to the 98 area to further support the pair's rebound. Existing Home Sales in the US rose 1.5% in October following Septembers decline of 2.5% and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index improved to 10.4 in November to ease concerns over the poor performance of the manufacturing sector in the US. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Friday, Consumer Price Index data from Japan will be looked upon for fresh catalysts. Later in the day, Markit Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the US will be featured in the economic docket. Technical levels to watch for  

Euro/Dollar, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs). This Thursday, the market re

EUR/USD reversed earlier intraday gains on Thursday. The level to beat for sellers is the 1.1043 support.  EUR/USD daily chart   Euro/Dollar, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs). This Thursday, the market rejected the 1.1100 handle in the New York session.     EUR/USD four-hour chart   The spot is trading below the 1.1077 resistance and the 100/200 SMAs on the four-hour time frame. The false bull breakout would gain credibility if the market closed below the 1.1043 on a daily closing basis. The primary levels to watch on the way down are likely located at the 1.1020, 1.0997 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    EUR/USD 30-minute chart     The fiber is trading below its main SMAs, suggesting a bearish momentum in the near term. The main resistances on the way up are the 1.1077, 1.1106 and the 1.1152 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. However, a daily close above the 1.1106 level would be seen as bullish for EUR/USD.   Additional key levels  

United States 10-Year Note Auction: 0.149% vs previous 1.809%

EUR/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). The market is currently in correction mode after the October bull run as the

This week, EUR/JPY is trading sideways near the 120.00 handleThe level to beat for sellers is the 119.80 level.    EUR/JPY daily chart   EUR/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). The market is currently in correction mode after the October bull run as the spot stays limited below the 121.00 handle.   EUR/JPY four-hour chart     On the four-hour chart, the market is trading below the 120.46/64 resistance and the 100/200 SMAs. A break below 119.80 can lead to the 119.42 support level, according to Technical Confluences Indicator.     EUR/JPY 30-minute chart   The market is ranging this week with the price currently hovering near the 121.15 support level and below the main SMAs.      Additional key levels  

Oil prices have been trading on the bid over the past twenty-four hours, with West Texas Intermediate crude, (WTI), rising from a low of $56.59 to a h

Oil was lifted on the sentiment that OPEC sentiment.Bulls knocking on the door of a 61.8% Fibo retracement target confluence area.Oil prices have been trading on the bid over the past twenty-four hours, with West Texas Intermediate crude, (WTI), rising from a low of $56.59 to a high of $58.25, adding 1.91% at the time of writing as investors bank on production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, (OPEC), and its allies.  At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $58.15 and close to its highest levels of the day so far despite US benchmarks in the red. While there had been a report earlier in the Wall Street Journal which stated that China’s top trade negotiator invited his U.S. counterparts to a new round of face-to-face talks, stocks were unable to garner much impetus from that and instead investors are more concerned over a number of prior headlines in the week so far that are quite to the contrary of such optimism.  For oil, we had news that Yemeni Houthis claimed to shoot down a Saudi coalition F-15 which helped boost oil prices. Also, US inventory builds were not as bad as expected. WTI gets a boost on OPEC Oil was also lifted on the sentiment that OPEC and its allies, including Russia, will probably agree to continue with production cuts when they meet in Vienna on the 5th and 6th of December, a long await meeting from where investors hope oil will find some traction – Reuters was citing OPEC sources with that story.  However, to the contrary, analysts at TD Securities argued that with "large surpluses in early 2020 still linger on the horizon, especially as OPEC+ appear hesitant to deepen output cuts when they meet in December — we would not be surprised to see prices move back to the low $50s into 2020."   WTI levels The price is up to the highest levels since late September, breaking the 57.80/90 resistance with 58.60/80 on the map, a confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the Sep 19 highs and October lows and the late July highs. 60.80 is a confluence of the 78.6% Fibo and July highs. 55 the figure, as trend line support, guards a run back to the 23.6% Fibo of the same range located around 53.90 and late Oct lows a fraction below there.   

Commenting on Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz's comments on Thursday, "Governor Poloz surprised markets with a relatively hawkish tone in

Commenting on Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz's comments on Thursday, "Governor Poloz surprised markets with a relatively hawkish tone in his fireside chat on Economic Change and the Path Forward," said TD Securities analysts. Key quotes "Poloz said the economy is in a good place and described monetary policy as "about right." However, the Bank continues to monitor for signs of spillovers and we do not think they will hesitate to act should the outlook deteriorate further." "FX: Today's comments reinforce our tactical bias for USDCAD to trade lower. We look for the post-Wilkins rally to be unwound and estimate FV closer to 1.3150." "Rates: Poloz remarks were negative for Canadian bond performance relative to the US, as he cited comfort with current inflation levels, and noted they are positive sign for the economy as currently levels."

Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the business investment will pick up if there are resolutions in trade wars

Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said the business investment will pick up if there are resolutions in trade wars and tariffs. Kashkari further added that his forecast was for continued growth but acknowledged that trade was a big risk. The US Dollar Index largely ignored these remarks and was last up 0.08% on the day at 97.95. "We are seeing wages picking up for entry-level jobs, these folks are long overdue for a raise," Kashkari stated. "Until I see wage growth pick up I know we aren't at full employment, so let's let this continue."

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she would re-evaluate the monetary policy if there were signs of weakness in hiring or consumer spend

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she would re-evaluate the monetary policy if there were signs of weakness in hiring or consumer spending. "Risks to the economy are still tilted slightly to the downside," Mester added while speaking to reporters after delivering her opening remarks at a conference on financial stability hosted by the Cleveland Fed. "I expect the US economy to grow by an average of 2% this year and for inflation to be slightly below 2%." These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on the USD's valuation. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was up 0.08% on the day at 97.95.

After advancing to its highest level in more than a month at 1.3327 earlier in the day, the USD/CAD pair came under strong bearish pressure during the

BoC Governor Poloz says monetary conditions are "about right."WTI gains more than 1.5% on OPEC headlines.US Dollar Index posts modest daily gains to limit pair's losses.After advancing to its highest level in more than a month at 1.3327 earlier in the day, the USD/CAD pair came under strong bearish pressure during the American trading hours as Bank of Canada Governor Poloz's hawkish comment and rising crude oil prices helped the CAD find demand. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3278, losing 0.2% on a daily basis. While speaking at an event organized by the Ontario Securities Commission in Toronto on Thursday, Poloz argued that monetary conditions were "about right" given the current situation to hint that the BoC is unlikely to consider a rate cut anytime soon. Oil jumps on hopes of OPEC extending production cuts In the meantime, on the back of Reuters report that showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was likely to extend the existing oil output cuts until June when the group meets in December, crude oil staged an impressive rally to provide an additional boost to the commodity-related loonie. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is adding 1.8% on the day at $58.10. On the other hand, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index improved to 10.4 in November and surpassed the market expectation of 7 to help the greenback show resilience against its rivals with the US Dollar Index rebounding to 97.90 in the second half of the day. On Friday, the macroeconomic calendar will feature Markit's preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI from the US and Retail Sales data from Canada. Technical levels to watch for  

DXY (US Dollar Index) is trading in an uptrend above its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). This Thursday, the market is stabilizing in the 97.70-98.00 price

DXY is stabilizing in the 97.70-98.00 price zone.The level to buyers for bulls is the 98.00 handle followed by the 98.20 and 98.40 price levels.     DXY daily chart     DXY (US Dollar Index) is trading in an uptrend above its 200-day simple moving average (DMA). This Thursday, the market is stabilizing in the 97.70-98.00 price zone.   DXY 4-hour chart   DXY is consolidating in the 97.70-98.00 zone while below the 50 and 200 SMAs. From a bullish perspective, the market would need to trade above the 98.00 handle on a daily closing basis. If the bullish breakout is successful, the market could appreciate towards the 98.20 and 98.40, near the November highs.     DXY 30-minute chart       The greenback is trading above the main SMAs, suggesting bullish momentum in the near term. Support is seen at the 97.70 level. However, a break below this level might lead to the 97.50 level.    Additional key levels  

Commenting on the European Central Bank's (ECB) October meeting accounts, "the assessment of the economy and discussions about the risks surrounding t

Commenting on the European Central Bank's (ECB) October meeting accounts, "the assessment of the economy and discussions about the risks surrounding the ECB’s expectations made the accounts of the October policy meeting a bit of a dovish read," said Rabobank analysts. Key quotes "In particular the discussion about underlying inflation dynamics and the factors driving the protracted sluggishness in inflation suggest the Council is becoming less certain whether it will be able to reach its inflation aim." "In the near-term the ECB’s call for increased fiscal stimulus, growing concerns about side effects of policy measures, and the ECB’s strategic review may slow down decision making." "But, pressures to act will likely increase over the course of 2020. We maintain our call of three more rate cuts starting in March 2020, but acknowledge risks that the ECB may hold until later in the year."

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 1.55% vs previous 1.565%

The GBP/USD pair dropped from the highest level since Monday at 1.2969 to 1.2912, slightly above Asian session lows. The reversal took place amid a st

Cable retreats amid a stronger US dollar across the board. Equity prices in Wall Street hold to losses but US yields rise modestly. The GBP/USD pair dropped from the highest level since Monday at 1.2969 to 1.2912, slightly above Asian session lows. The reversal took place amid a stronger US dollar across the board. Also the pound weakened somewhat with the EUR/GBP rising back to 0.8570.  The South China Morning Post (SCMP) informed that China is looking at what US President Trump is going to do with the Hong-Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act approved on Wednesday that is awaiting his signature to turn it into law. The report weight on market sentiment. Wall Street indexes are lower while at the same time US yields are modestly higher offering support to the greenback. Contrarian signals about the US/China trade negotiations are now business as usual for markets. Earlier today, the same media informed that the US could delay the application of new tariffs (schedule by December 15) to Chinese goods if a deal was not reach by then, improving market sentiment.  Technical outlook  The pair lost momentum with the recent decline from near 1.2970. It could have formed a double top. The neckline of the patter is seen around 1.2880/1.2900; so a break lower could clear the way to a slide toward 1.2800.  In the very short-term the negative tone prevails. A recovery above 1.2935 would remove the bearish pressure while under 1.2910 it will likely intensify.     

EUR/USD, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs). The market is rejecting the 1.110

EUR/USD climbed as high as 1.1097 but bears stepped in and drove the market near 1.1070 level.The level to beat for bears is the 1.1043 support.  EUR/USD daily chart   EUR/USD, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs). The market is rejecting the 1.1100 handle this Thursday in the New York session.     EUR/USD four-hour chart   The market is trading back below the 100 and 200 SMAs while the market is trading below the 1.1083 resistance level. A daily close below the 1.1083 level would signal a failed bullish breakout which can result in a decline in the coming sessions.   A daily close below 1.1043 level can see the bears taking the helm and drive the market towards the 1.1014 and 1.0991 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.   EUR/USD 30-minute chart     EUR/USD is trading below the 200 SMA, suggesting a bearish bias in the near term. The main resistance on the way up is the 1.1083 level, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  

The SCMP is reporting that a high-profile signing ceremony of the Hong-Kong bill may anger China. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are on the back foot. More comin

The SCMP is reporting that a high-profile signing ceremony of the Hong-Kong bill may anger China.  EUR/USD and GBP/USD are on the back foot.  More coming

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at -94B below forecasts (18B) in November 15

Bitcoin Price Loses $8,000 Support Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $8,000 on Nov. 21, after several days of downward price pressure finally cost the cryptocurrency

Tron price analysis: TRX/USD must defend the falling channel Tron is disintegrating within a falling wedge pattern. The declines come after a failed attempt to rise above the resistance at $0.023. A lower high and lower low pattern has been the norm in the last three weeks. Possible support areas have been shuttered to the extent of TRX testing the key support at $23.6% Fib resistance level taken between the last swing high of $0.0230 and a swing low of $0.0137. The 4-hour chart clearly shows that the bears are in control. The Relative Strength Index is back below 30 after a failed attempt to push TRX above $0.0170. If the RSI continues to explore lower oversold levels, TRX could shutter the channel support. Read more... Bitcoin Price Loses $8,000 Support Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $8,000 on Nov. 21, after several days of downward price pressure finally cost the cryptocurrency a major support level. Data from Coin360 showed BTC/USD finally reentering the $7,000 range on Thursday, marking its lowest since the last week of October. $7,880 was met by an immediate bounce to $7,940. Read more… Bitcoin price analysis: BTC/USD shutters $8,000 support, focus shifts to $7,800 Bitcoin is leading the market in fresh declines during the European session. The largest cryptocurrency in the world has slipped under $8,000 and is seeking support above $7,000. It is trading at $7,930 following a 2% loss on the day. The falling wedge pattern I have explored as a bullish indicator severally failed to yield. Instead, it’s support has been shuttered giving way for Bitcoin to explore the levels under $8,000. The price is also moving further below the 50 SMA and the 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the increasing gap between the moving averages suggests that selling pressure is growing. Read more…

Wall Street's main indexes started the day modestly lower on Thursday as investors continue to assess the latest developments surrounding the United S

Rising crude oil prices push energy shares higher.CBOE Volatility Index rises nearly 4% on Thursday.US is said to delay December tariff hike.Wall Street's main indexes started the day modestly lower on Thursday as investors continue to assess the latest developments surrounding the United States (US)-China trade dispute and wait for fresh headlines coming out of the day four of President Trump impeachment hearings. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were all down 0.1% on a daily basis. Although the South China Morning Post (SCMP) earlier in the day reported that the US could delay the December tariff hike even if a deal is not finalized by then, investors seem to be refraining from reacting to every headline. In fact, the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, is up nearly 4% to reflect the dismal mood. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, 9 of which are in the negative territory in the early trade, the Energy Index outperforms by adding nearly 1% on the back of rising crude oil prices.

European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence came in at -7.2, above forecasts (-7.3) in November

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) came in at 5.46M below forecasts (5.47M) in October

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) came in at 1.9%, above expectations (1.4%) in October

Gold: failure to capitalize on momentum may disappoint bulls The failure of gold to push ahead in its recovery momentum will come as a disappointment

Gold: failure to capitalize on momentum may disappoint bulls The failure of gold to push ahead in its recovery momentum will come as a disappointment for the bulls. Even as safe-haven flows have begun to resume on Wednesday, the gold price closed lower and runs the risk that this tepid rally has already run out of steam. The band of overhead supply between $1474/$1480 has come in to act as a barrier to the recovery and yesterday’s high at $1279 is notable. Read more...   Gold Technical Analysis: Remains vulnerable below 100-day SMAGold seems to have stalled its recent corrective bounce from three-month lows and witnessed a modest pullback from previous support,  now turned resistance near 100-day SMA. Meanwhile, the commodity has been trending lower over the past two months or so along a descending trend-channel, which clearly points to a well-established near-term downtrend. Read more... Gold daily chart

Euro/dollar, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below its downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs). The market is trapped in

EUR/USD traded as high as 1.1097 but reversed course and is now virtually unchanged on a daily basis.The level to beat for bulls is the 1.1083 resistance.  EUR/USD daily chart   Euro/dollar, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below its downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs). The market is trapped in a range for the third consecutive day.      EUR/USD four-hour chart   The spot tried to break above the 1.1083 but is currently being rejected in the New York session. A daily close above the level could lead to the 1.1112 and 1.1152 resistances, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.           EUR/USD 30-minute chart     EUR/USD is trading above the 200 SMA, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. The main support is seen at the 1.1043 level. However, a daily close below this point could lead to a secline towards the 1.1014 and 1.0991 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    Additional key levels  

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main competitors, alternates gains with losses on Thursday around the 97.80/90 ar

DXY remains parked around the 97.80/90 region.Philly Fed index surprised to the upside this month.US-China trade hopes appear reignited.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main competitors, alternates gains with losses on Thursday around the 97.80/90 area. US Dollar Index keeps focused on trade The price action around the index remains quite volatile on Thursday, always gyrating around headlines from the US-China trade front. Indeed, latest news indicated that the White House could delay tariffs that are meant to kick in next month, while US and Chinese officials could be planning the resumption of negotiations any time soon. In the US data space, the key Philly Fed manufacturing gauge came in on the strong side in November, improving to 10.4 vs. forecasts at 7.0 and October’s 5.6. further data saw Initial Claims rising by 227K WoW, coming in short of expectations. Later in the session, Existing Home Sales are due ahead of the speech by Minneapolis Fed N.Kashkari (2020 voter, dovish). What to look for around USD The index seems to have met solid contention in the 97.70 region for the time being. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade dispute are expected to remain as the exclusive driver when comes to price action in the global markets, while investors keep monitoring US fundamentals amidst the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Federal Reserve and the steepening of the 2y-10y yield curve seen as of late. Moving to US politics, markets keep ignoring developments from the Trump’s impeachment process, while the impact on the FX space remains muted so far. On the broader view, however, the outlook on the greenback still looks constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.01% at 97.88 a breakout of 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the other hand, immediate contention is located at 97.68 (monthly low Nov.18) seconded by 97.56 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

Aurora Cannabis Incorporated (ACB), the Edmonton-based company, has leaped by over 12% on Wednesday and closed at a price of $3.50. Its recent rises d

Aurora's stock price has been recovering from the lows as investors convert debentures. Optimism about investment in the sector has been pushing all stocks higher.Legalization may be the next substantial driver for pot stocks.Aurora Cannabis Incorporated (ACB), the Edmonton-based company, has leaped by over 12% on Wednesday and closed at a price of $3.50. Its recent rises defy speculation that placed a $1 target for the Toronto-traded share. The most recent surge came after Aurora announced that 94% of debentures allowed to settle this week. While some have criticized the highly-dilutive conditions, the quick uptake, coming well before the March 2020 deadline, has encouraged investors. Later this week, the firm will publish a press release by detailing the status of the financial maneuver.  Investing in Marijuana Stocks The marijuana company has also benefited from optimism about the broader sector. According to a survey by KCSA Strategic Communications, no fewer than 86% of respondents said they are bullish on the pot industry despite substantial falls in equity prices. Even in the face of a potential recession, only 5% said it would cause them to sell off their holdings. However, investments have become smaller, with fewer heavy-weight exposures of over $100,000. For Aurora and the broader sector to rise, legalizing weed on the federal level in the US is needed. The House of Representatives is advancing legislation that includes expungement, but the road is long until the world's largest economy adopts the Canadian model. Aurora Stock Price Today Despite the significant rise on Wednesday, ACB is still down on the week. In order to close the week on a high note, the share price needs to gain another dollar. It closed the previous week around $4.50.  Support awaits at the weekly low of $2.90, but the round level of $3.00 may come into play. Likewise, any further advance may find resistance at $4. These round numbers draw attention and are of psychological importance. See Marijuana Stocks Price: MORE Act lifts prices from lows, financials still weigh

While speaking at an event organized by the Ontario Securities Commission in Toronto on Thursday, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz said tha

While speaking at an event organized by the Ontario Securities Commission in Toronto on Thursday, Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz said that he thought monetary conditions were "about right" given the current situation. With this comment hinting that the BoC is unlikely to opt-out for a rate cut, the CAD gathered strength against its rivals. The USD/CAD pair, which was trading above 1.3320 in the last hour, fell sharply in the last minutes and was last seen trading at 1.3280, erasing 0.18% on a daily basis. 

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the ECB will ease policy again next year as the October monetary policy account indicates that the Governing

According to analysts at Nordea Markets, the ECB will ease policy again next year as the October monetary policy account indicates that the Governing Council members needed time to make up their minds about the next steps. Key Quotes: “We expect another policy package in March next year, consisting of a 10bp cut to the deposit rate and an additional €20bn per month of APP. The euro area economic outlook is weak and inflation is set to stay well below target, which merits more monetary policy stimulus. Since the last meeting, GDP growth and core inflation numbers came in a bit stronger than expected, but the PMIs are still at very low levels. The last round of PMIs ahead of the next ECB meeting will come in tomorrow.”

After advancing to a fresh daily high of 0.6815 in the early trading hours of the American session, the AUD/USD pair lost its traction and erased its

US could reportedly delay December tariff hike on Chinese imports.US Dollar Index recovers to 97.90 on upbeat manufacturing data.Coming up: Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing and Services PMI data from Australia.After advancing to a fresh daily high of 0.6815 in the early trading hours of the American session, the AUD/USD pair lost its traction and erased its daily gains to turn flat near the 0.6800 mark as the AUD failed to capitalize on renewed trade optimism. The South China Morning Post on Thursday reported that the United States could delay December's scheduled tariff hike on Chinese imports even if sides fail to finalize phase one of the trade deal. Although positive developments on the US-China trade conflict usually help the AUD/USD pair gain traction, the broad-based USD recovery made it difficult for the pair to push higher. USD rebound on upbeat data The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey revealed that the business activity in the region's manufacturing sector in November expanded at a much more robust pace than expected to help the greenback gather strength against its peers. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the buck's value against a basket of six major currencies, staged a recovery on the back of the data and turned positive on the day near the 97.90 mark. In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Friday, the Commonwealth Bank's Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from Australia will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch for  

USD/JPY is still seen testing the 108.00 area in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for USD

USD/JPY is still seen testing the 108.00 area in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for USD to “challenge 108.25” did not materialize as it rebounded quickly after touching 108.33. Downward pressure has waned, and the current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, USD is expected to trade sideways for today, likely between 108.30 and 108.70”. Next 1-3 weeks: “When USD dropped to 108.23 last Thursday, we ‘upgraded’ the downside risk and indicated on Friday (15 Nov, spot at 108.50) that USD is “expected to trade with a downward bias towards 108.00”. While USD held above 108.23 and traded mostly sideways since then, we continue to the view that the risk is on the downside. That said, after the price action over the past few days, 108.00 may not come into the picture so soon. On the upside, only a break of 109.00 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 109.15) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, a move to the 0.6465 level in NZD/USD seems to have lost momentum as of late. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our ex

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, a move to the 0.6465 level in NZD/USD seems to have lost momentum as of late. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for NZD to “advance further” was incorrect as it traded sideways within a 0.6405/0.6436 range. Further sideway trading is expected for today even though the slightly weakened underlying tone suggests NZD is likely to trade at a lower range of 0.6395/0.6430”. Next 1-3 weeks: “Despite the strong gain of +0.51% yesterday (0.6431), the outlook for NZD has not changed much. We continue to hold the same view from last Friday (15 Nov, spot 0.6380) wherein NZD is “expected to trade sideways between 0.6350 and 0.6465 for a while more”. In other words, the risk for a sustained raise above 0.6465 is not high”.

Buying interest around the British pound picked up some pace in the last hour and pushed the GBP/USD pair back above mid-1.2900s, closer to the top en

Increasing odds of a majority for Conservatives continue to underpin the GBP.A subdued USD demand, despite positive trade headlines, remained supportive.Sustained move beyond the 1.3000 handle needed to confirm any further gains.Buying interest around the British pound picked up some pace in the last hour and pushed the GBP/USD pair back above mid-1.2900s, closer to the top end of the weekly trading range.
 
The pair built on the previous session's late rebound from weekly lows and continued gaining some positive traction through the early North-American session amid a subdued US dollar price action. Despite a goodish intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, the greenback struggled to gain traction and was seen as one of the key factors fueling the positive momentum. Weaker USD, UK political optimism supportive of the positive move The US bond yields pushed higher on positive trade-related headlines, wherein China was reported to have extended an invite to US trade negotiations for another round of face-to-face talks. Adding to this, the South China Morning Post report indicated that tariffs on Chinese goods slated to go into effect on December 15 will likely be delayed even if the negotiating parties can't reach an agreement.
 
The more hopeful trade rhetoric led to a goodish recovery in the global risk sentiment and dented the USD's perceived safe-haven status against its British countterpart. This coupled with the fact that the incoming UK election polls have been indicating a majority for the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party continued underpinning the sterling and remained supportive of the intraday positive move.
 
With investors still digesting the incoming trade headlines, it will now be interesting to see if bulls are able to capitalize on the momentum or the pair continues with its struggle to make it through the key 1.30 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD keeps the firm note so far in the second half of the week and managed to advance to fresh weekly highs in levels just shy of the 1.1100 mark e

EUR/USD moves higher to the vicinity of the 1.1100 handle.US Philly Fed index came in above estimates in November.EC’s Consumer Confidence next on the docket.EUR/USD keeps the firm note so far in the second half of the week and managed to advance to fresh weekly highs in levels just shy of the 1.1100 mark earlier in the session. EUR/USD up on trade hopes Spot continues to reverse Wednesday’s pullback although the bullish attempt has run out of steam at the very doorsteps of 1.1100 the figure. The earlier move up was on the back of positive headlines from the US-China trade front, as rumours were citing the probability that the December tariffs could be delayed at the same time when Chinese and US negotiators are assessing the idea of resuming trade talks. On the docket, the minutes of the latest ECB meeting noted members advocated for patience following the restart of the QE programme, although they acknowledged the precarious outlook on both the global and domestic economy. Later in the session, the European Commission is expected to release its measure of Consumer Confidence. Across the ocean, the Philly Fed manufacturing index came in above estimates at 10.4 for the month of November, while Initial Claims once again rose above forecasts at a weekly 227K. What to look for around EUR Spot met strong resistance in the 1.1080/90 band for the time being while it keeps looking to USD-dynamics and headlines from the US-China trade front for direction. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In this regard, all the looks will be upon the release of November’s preliminary PMIs later in the week. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.1072 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1097 (monthly high Nov.21) followed by 1.1173 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the downside, a break below 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).

Belgium Consumer Confidence Index climbed from previous -8 to -6 in November

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, there is still room for Cable to advance beyond the key 1.30 mark in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view:

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, there is still room for Cable to advance beyond the key 1.30 mark in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for GBP yesterday was, “risk is tilted to the downside towards 1.2900” but “the next support at 1.2875 is likely ‘safe’ for today”. GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2888 before recovering to end the day little changed at 1.2923 (-0.02%). The mild downward pressure we detected yesterday appears to have eased. The current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase. In other words, GBP is expected to trade sideways for now, likely between 1.2900 and 1.2950”. Next 1-3 weeks: “Our’ strong support’ level at 1.2875 is still intact as GBP recovered after touching 1.2888 and ended the day little changed in NY at 1.2923 (-0.02%). As highlighted yesterday (20 Nov, spot at 1.2925), only a break of 1.2875 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased. Until then, there is still chance for GBP to move towards last month’s peak at 1.3012. That said, after the price action over the past couple of days, the probability for such a scenario has decreased. Looking forward, if GBP were to move below 1.2875, it could trade sideways for a period”.

The Sterling is clinging to the November highs approaching the 1.3000 handle while above its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs).

The cable is trading at weekly highs in the New York session.The level to beat for bulls is the 1.2964 resistance.   GBP/USD daily chart   The Sterling is clinging to the November highs approaching the 1.3000 handle while above its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs).   GBP/USD four-hour chart   The market is challenging the 1.2964 resistance while trading above its main SMAs, suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. A break above the resistance level can lead to further strength towards the 1.3012 and 1.3093 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator    GBP/USD 30-minute chart     The market is trading just above the main SMAs, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. Support is seen at the 1.2918, 1.2877 and 1.2824 price levels.        Additional key levels  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD is seen extending the consolidative phase in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, EUR/USD is seen extending the consolidative phase in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for EUR to “edge higher” did not materialize as it traded sideways within a 1.1051/1.1081 range before ending the day largely unchanged at 1.1072 (-0.05%). The underlying tone still appears to be slightly positive and we continue to see chance for EUR to edge higher towards 1.1095. The strong resistance at 1.1115 is not expected to come into the picture. Support is at 1.1060 followed by 1.1040”. Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR traded in a tight 22 pips range yesterday (between 1.1061 and 1.1083), the second smallest 1-day range so far this year. The quiet price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold on to the same view from Monday (18 Nov, spot at 1.1055). The current price action is still viewed as part of a 1.1010/1.1115 sideway-trading range even though the near-term bias is on the upside. Looking forward, if EUR were to crack 1.1115, the focus would shift to 1.1150. All in, the current mild upward pressure is expected to remain intact unless EUR drops back below 1.1040 within these few days”.

The economic activity in the Third Federal Reserve District's manufacturing sector expanded at a stronger pace than expected in November with the Phil

Philly Fed's Manufacturing Index came in stronger than expected in November.US Dollar Index largely ignored the data and stays in range below 98. The economic activity in the Third Federal Reserve District's manufacturing sector expanded at a stronger pace than expected in November with the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index improving to 10.4 from 5.6 in October and beating the market forecast of 7. "The indexes for current shipments and new orders both fell: The current new orders index decreased 18 points, while the shipments index decreased 9 points," the publication read. "Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes remained positive this month, suggesting higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times." The US Dollar Index failed to capitalize on the upbeat data and was last seen moving sideways near the 97.80 handle.

Gold seems to have stalled its recent corrective bounce from three-month lows and witnessed a modest pullback from previous support, now turned resist

The recent corrective bounce from three-month lows falters ahead of 100-DMA.Bears might now aim to challenge monthly swing low, around the $1445 region.Gold seems to have stalled its recent corrective bounce from three-month lows and witnessed a modest pullback from previous support, now turned resistance near 100-day SMA.
 
Meanwhile, the commodity has been trending lower over the past two months or so along a descending trend-channel, which clearly points to a well-established near-term downtrend.
 
This coupled with the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart have struggled to recover from the negative territory add credence to the commodity’s near-term bearish outlook.
 
Hence, some follow-through weakness, possibly towards $1457-55 intermediate support en-route monthly swing lows around the $1445 region, now looks a distinct possibility.
 
The latter coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci level of the $1265-$1557 positive move and is closely followed by the lower end of the descending trend-channel, around the $1440 region.
 
Failure to defend the mentioned support levels might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent pullback from multi-year tops.
 
On the flip side, immediate resistance is pegged near the $1481-82 region (100-DMA), above which the commodity is likely to aim back towards the key $1500 psychological mark.
 
The momentum could further get extended towards the trend-channel resistance, currently near the $1509-10 region, which if cleared might negate any near-term bearish bias. Gold daily chart  

Canada ADP Employment Change came in at -22.6K below forecasts (53.3K) in October

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 10.4, above forecasts (7) in November

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.695M above expectations (1.685M) in November 8

United States Initial Jobless Claims above expectations (219K) in November 15: Actual (227K)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average registered at 221K above expectations (218.182K) in November 15

The USD/JPY pair gained traction in the last hour after the latest headlines surrounding the United State (US)-China trade conflict triggered fresh ri

US could reportedly delay December tariff hike even if there is no deal with China.10-year US Treasury bond yield is adding more than 1% on the day.US Dollar Index stays in its weekly range below 98.The USD/JPY pair gained traction in the last hour after the latest headlines surrounding the United State (US)-China trade conflict triggered fresh risk-on flows and weighed on the safe-haven JPY. As of writing, the pair was posting small daily gains above 108.60. Focus remains on US-China trade developments "There is still some modicum of optimism that a watered-down deal can be reached before new US tariffs go into effect on December 15, but even if the deal proves elusive, sources say it is likely they will be at least postponed," the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Thursday.  With the initial market reaction, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield edged higher as well to reaffirm the upbeat mood and was last seen adding a little more than 1% on a daily basis. Additionally, the S&P 500 futures turned positive on the day to suggest that Wall Street's main indexes are likely to open higher.  On the other hand, the US Dollar Index continues to move sideways below the 98 handle, allowing the risk perception to continue to impact the pair's movements. Later in the session, Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data from the United States will be watched for fresh catalysts. Technical levels to watch for  

South Africa SARB Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (6.5%)

The United States could opt-out to delay the tariff hike that is scheduled to go into effect on December 15th even if a trade deal with China is not c

The United States could opt-out to delay the tariff hike that is scheduled to go into effect on December 15th even if a trade deal with China is not completed by then, the Chinese news outlet South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Thursday. With the initial market reaction, the USD/JPY pair spiked to a session high of 108.70 to reflect improved market sentiment. At the moment, the pair is flat on the day at 108.60. In the menatime, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is adding 1.2% to confirm the upbeat mood.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $540.1B from previous $541.1B

Prakash Sakpal – Asian Economist at ING – offered his take on the ongoing US-China trade disputes and its impact on China's economic growth. Key Quote

Prakash Sakpal – Asian Economist at ING – offered his take on the ongoing US-China trade disputes and its impact on China's economic growth. Key Quotes: “China’s industrial profits and manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing manager indexes (PMI) should reflect the economy reeling under the trade tensions with the US. Just about a month ago, things on the trade front were moving in the desired direction with both sides nearing a phase one deal soon, so to speak in mid-November. The latest news hasn’t been very good. First, the postponement of the deal signing to December, and now probably to 2020.”
 
“The sentiment-driven PMIs may not capture the latest trade developments. Nor do we anticipate a dramatic improvement from a seasonal bounce in November that typically follows the holiday-related slump in October, leaving the manufacturing PMI a touch under the 50 threshold. And, the nearly two-decade low industrial production growth in October clearly bodes ill for the profits growth, which has been in the negative territory recently. All this keeps alive the risk of further slippage in China's overall economic growth in the last quarter of 2019.”

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of some second-tier US economic releases on Thursday, though the market will continue to look

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offered a brief preview of some second-tier US economic releases on Thursday, though the market will continue to look toward trade headlines for direction. Key Quotes: “With the FOMC minutes out of the way, the market will continue to look toward trade headlines for direction. The ongoing uncertainty about whether a Phase 1 deal can be finished suggests that volatility should remain elevated. This can also keep markets pricing in more 2020 rate cuts as the higher probability of trade tensions can keep economic fundamentals under pressure.”
 
“The Philly Fed manufacturing survey will give us a new indication about the performance of the sector in November, with the consensus looking for a modest increase to 6.0 from 5.6 in October. Separately, existing home sales are expected to increase 2.0% m/m in October following a -2.2% decline in the prior month. Sales have picked-up recently under an environment of low mortgage rates, which has also helped to support the rest of the housing sector.”

A plea was made for patience to allow the measures taken in September to work through the economy, supporting a wait and see posture at the current ju

A plea was made for patience to allow the measures taken in September to work through the economy, supporting a wait and see posture at the current juncture, the accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) October policy meeting showed on Thursday. The shared currency's reaction to the ECB statement has been muted so far with the EUR/USD pair extending its sideways grind below the 1.11 handle.  Key takeaways "Strong call for unity of the Governing Council was made at the October 23-24 policy meeting." "Frank discussions are necessary but it's important to form a consensus, unite behind the inflation aim." "Economic data raised the question as to whether weakness would continue for longer than anticipated in September." "Wide agreement that more info is needed to reassess inflation outlook, the impact of ECB measures." "Measures should be allowed more time to unfold; confident they will support inflation."

The index is now prolonging the consolidation after the recent failure to extend the march north beyond the key barrier at 98.00 the figure. Immediate

The recovery in DXY met tough resistance in the 98.00 area so far.The prospect on the index stays positive while above the 200-day SMA.The index is now prolonging the consolidation after the recent failure to extend the march north beyond the key barrier at 98.00 the figure. Immediately to the upside now emerge the 10-day SMA (98.08), the 100-day SMA (98.03) and the weekly tops. Further up aligns the 98.50 region, or monthly highs. A sustainable break of this hurdle should pave the way for a move to 99.00 and beyond. In the meantime, as long as the 200-day SMA at 97.56 holds the downside, the constructive outlook on DXY is seen unchanged.  

The USD/CAD pair consolidated its recent gains to multi-week tops and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3300 handle through

A subdued USD demand, weaker Oil prices failed to provide any meaningful impetus.Thursday’s speech by BoC Governor Poloz will be eyed for a fresh directional impetus.The USD/CAD pair consolidated its recent gains to multi-week tops and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3300 handle through the mid-European session on Thursday.
 
A combination of diverging factors failed to provide any meaningful impetus or assist the pair to build on the solid gains recorded over the past two trading session, though bulls have still managed to defend the very important 200-day SMA. Focus shifts to Poloz’s speech The US dollar remained on the defensive on the back of Wednesday's FOMC minutes, which revealed that policymakers see downside risks to the economic outlook and that the recent monetary easing was appropriate due to global weakness.
 
Meanwhile, the USD bulls seemed unimpressed by a goodish intraday pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, rather took cues from escalating US-China political tensions, especially after the passage of a bill that supports Hong Kong protesters.
 
The negative factor, to a larger extent, was largely negated by the prevalent weaker tone surrounding oil prices, which undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency – loonie and helped limit any meaningful pullback.
 
Given that US-China standoff has extended beyond trade, oil prices edged lower on Thursday amid growing market concerns that the Phase-One deal to end a trade war between the world's two largest economies may be delayed further.
 
Apart from this, investors also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets and preferred to wait on the sideline ahead of the BoC Governor Stephen Poloz's speech, scheduled during the early North-American session this Thursday.
 
From a technical perspective, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained breakthrough a 5-1/2 month-old descending trend-line resistance before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid relatively thin economic docket. Technical levels to watch  

The price action in EUR/JPY continues to struggle with the 21-day SMA in the vicinity of 120.50. The persistent inability of the cross to surpass this

The weekly sideline theme in EUR/JPY remains unchanged so far.The resumption of the selling pressure should target monthly lows near 119.20.The price action in EUR/JPY continues to struggle with the 21-day SMA in the vicinity of 120.50. The persistent inability of the cross to surpass this key barrier has sparked the ongoing consolidative phase, always on the back of developments from the US-China trade front. The resumption of the downside pressure is expected to meet initial support in the 119.50/24 band, where converge the 100-day and 55-day SMAs as well as monthly lows recorded on November 14th. In order to alleviate the immediate downside pressure, the cross needs to overcome weekly highs around 120.50, ideally in the short-term horizon.  

Following the publication of its general election manifesto on Thursday, British opposition Labour Party's leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said that another Sc

Following the publication of its general election manifesto on Thursday, British opposition Labour Party's leader, Jeremy Corbyn, said that another Scottish independence referendum was not their priority and added that they were not fighting the election to go into a coalition with anybody. "We are proposing public ownership of obvious monopolies," stated Corbyn. "Public ownership proposals are about bringing natural monopolies into public hands." In the meantime, the British pound continues to gather strength against its major rivals. As of writing, the GBP/USD pair was up 0.26% on the day at 1.2955.

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) provided a brief insight over Thursday's key event, a scheduled speech by the BoC Governor Poloz, due later during the

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) provided a brief insight over Thursday's key event, a scheduled speech by the BoC Governor Poloz, due later during the early North-American session. Key Quotes: “Amid a fairly-quiet data release schedule, today's "fireside chat" with Governor Poloz is our main focus for the North American session. USDCAD lurched higher after investors lurched on to the more dovish elements of a speech this week from Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins. With Canada's CPI still running at a decent clip, this move looks vulnerable to a pullback below the 200dma if Poloz fails to follow up with a dovish lean of his own.”
 
“Governor Poloz will hold a fireside chat on "Economic change and the path forward" at 8:45 ET. However, a lack of media presence presents a challenge for markets; there will be no opening statement or press conference, and the Bank will not carry a webcast of the event. Given the Bank's recent messaging, we expect the focus will remain on trade-offs between monetary easing and financial vulnerabilities, although it will be difficult to pick up any nuance from the Governor's remarks if all we see are headlines.”
 
“On the data front, we will get ADP employment for October at 8:30 which will be looked to for confirmation of the soft LFS numbers. The October LFS showed 2.4k jobs lost, although stripping out self-employed workers (which are not captured by ADP) showed a more favourable 26k increase in public & private employment.”

Support for the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party in the upcoming election increased by three points to 44%, an opinion poll c

Support for the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative Party in the upcoming election increased by three points to 44%, an opinion poll conducted by Ipsos MORI showed on Thursday. Additionally, Ipsos MORI said the support for the main opposition Labour Party rose to 28% from 24% while Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party shares both lost four points to 16% and 3%, respectively.  The GBP/USD pair inched higher on this headline and was last seen trading at 1.2945, adding 0.18% on a daily basis.

Prakash Sakpal – Asian Economist at ING – offered his take on the Indian economy and what could be expected from the next Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

Prakash Sakpal – Asian Economist at ING – offered his take on the Indian economy and what could be expected from the next Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting in December. Key Quotes: “India’s increasingly weak activity data has put a solid consensus behind a view that GDP growth slowed further in the July-September quarter after hitting a six-year low of 5% year-on-year in the previous quarter. The consensus median forecast is 4.7%. Bucking the consensus, our 5.3% forecast assumes some, if not all, of the stimulus, has trickled down, while year-on-year growth also gets a lift from the low base effect.”
 
“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been easing its policy since the start of the year and has cut rates by a total of 135 basis point so far - the most among Asian and probably global central banks. Taking into account the policy lag, even if half of this is passed on by banks to their borrowers, it should help the recovery of investment demand. On the fiscal side, 18% YoY growth government revenue and 15% growth in capital spending in the first six months of the fiscal year are hopeful signs.”
 
“Despite our optimistic growth view, we don’t think the RBI will let its guard down just yet, which is highly unlikely in the event growth does tumble in line with consensus. We expect one last 25bp rate cut in December.”

The NZD/USD pair tested the 0.6400 mark for the second straight day on Thursday but didn't have a difficult time reversing its direction. As of writin

Next round of US-China trade talks could reportedly take place before Thanksgiving.Credit Card Spending data from New Zealand came in below market expectations. Coming up: Weekly Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales data from US.The NZD/USD pair tested the 0.6400 mark for the second straight day on Thursday but didn't have a difficult time reversing its direction. As of writing, the pair was trading at its highest level since November 4th at 0.6336, adding 0.28% on a daily basis. NZD continues to react to US-China trade headlines In the absence of significant macroeconomic drivers, developments surrounding the United States (US)-China trade dispute continue to drive the pair's action. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Thursday noted that he was confident about reaching the phase one of the trade deal. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that China has invited Secretary Treasury Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer to China with hopes of the next round of face-to-face talks taking place before Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the only data from New Zealand revealed that Credit Card Spending in October increased by 2.5% on a yearly basis and fell short of the market expectation for an increase of 5.5%.  On the other hand, after the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) October meeting minutes on Wednesday reaffirmed the wait-and-see approach regarding the near-term policy outlook, the greenback remained stuck in its weekly range below the 98 handle. Later in the session, weekly Jobless Claims data and Existing Home Sales figures from the United States will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to consider  

The referendum on Brexit will be legally binding and EU nationals will be granted the automatic right to continue living and working in the United Kin

The referendum on Brexit will be legally binding and EU nationals will be granted the automatic right to continue living and working in the United Kingdom, the Labour Party said in its general election manifesto on Thursday, per Reuters. The British pound weakened slightly in the last minutes and the GBP/USD pair was last up 0.15% on a daily basis at 1.2940.  Key takeaways "Energy and water systems will be put into public ownership." "Any company that fails to contribute to tackling the climate and environmental emergency will be delisted from the London Stock Exchange." "If Britain votes to stay in the EU, this must not mean accepting the status quo." "Will introduce a broader public interest test to prevent hostile takeovers and asset stripping of companies." "We will take action to address the monopolistic hold the tech giants have on advertising revenues." "Will eliminate the current budget deficit by end of rolling 5-year forecast period." "Will keep interest repayments below 10% of tax revenue." "Will suspend fiscal rules if the Bank of England advises that monetary policy cannot stabilise the economy or if QE is expanded." "Will raise public investment to around 4.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP)."

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has so far no plans to deepen the current oil output cuts during the December meeting, Re

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has so far no plans to deepen the current oil output cuts during the December meeting, Reuters reported citing three OPEC sources. "OPEC+ is likely to extend existing oil supply cuts until June when the group meets in December," sources told Reuters. "It is more likely that we will extend the agreement in December to send a positive message to the market. The Saudis don't want oil prices to fall, they want to put a floor under the prices because of the (Aramco) IPO." Crude oil prices edged lower on these comments and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was last seen trading at $56.85, down 0.37% on a daily basis.

China will not resort to a "flood-style" strong stimulus, China's Premier Li Keqiang noted on Thursday and added that they are confident about achievi

China will not resort to a "flood-style" strong stimulus, China's Premier Li Keqiang noted on Thursday and added that they are confident about achieving their full-year economic target. "China will actively expand its imports," Li further said, per Reuters. The improved market sentiment remained unfazed after Li's remarks. As of writing, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was adding more than 1% on a daily basis and the S&P 500 futures were unchanged on the day, pointing out to a flat start in Wall Street's main indexes. 

The AUD/USD pair jumped to fresh session tops in the last hour, albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.6800 round-figure

The prevalent USD selling bias helped gains some traction at lower levels.US-China trade uncertainty is likely to cap gains for the China-proxy aussie.Move above 100-DMA (0.6835 region) needed to confirm any further gains.The AUD/USD pair jumped to fresh session tops in the last hour, albeit seemed struggling to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.6800 round-figure mark.
 
The pair managed to reverse an early dip back closer to the lower end of its weekly trading range, around the 0.6785 region and was now being supported by the prevalent weaker tone surrounding the US dollar. Focus remains on trade developments The greenback shrugged off a goodish bounce in the US Treasury bond yields and remained depressed on the back of FOMC minutes, which revealed that policymakers see downside risks to the economic outlook.
 
Apart from some USD weakness, the uptick lacked any obvious catalyst and lacked any strong bullish conviction amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty, which tends to undermine demand for the China-proxy aussie.
 
It is worth recalling that the passage of the Hong Kong Humans Right and Democracy Act bill on Tuesday drew strong objections from China and shattered hopes of a partial trade deal between the world's two largest economies.
 
This coupled with deteriorating global risk sentiment, as depicted by a sea of red across equity markets, might further contribute towards capping any strong gains for perceived riskier currencies – like the Australian dollar.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying, possibly beyond 100-day SMA barrier near the 0.6835 region, before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the major.
 
There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Thursday and hence, the incoming trade-related headlines might continue to play a key role in producing some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

China's chief trade negotiator has invited trade negotiators of the United States for in-person talks, reported The Wall Street Journal's Lingling Wei

China's chief trade negotiator has invited trade negotiators of the United States (US) for in-person talks that will hopefully take place before Thanksgiving, reported The Wall Street Journal's Lingling Wei and Eva Dou, citing people briefed on the matter. "During a phone call late last week, Liu He, President Xi Jinping's point person on trade negotiations in Washington, extended the invitation to US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to hold the meeting," the article read. The market sentiment seems to be improving on this development with the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which was last up 1.15% on the day at 1.761%, edging higher. 

Spain 5-y Bond Auction up to -0.106% from previous -0.199%

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction up to 0.409% from previous 0.3%

In its updated economic growth forecasts, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) said the global growth is expected to be 2

In its updated economic growth forecasts, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) said the global growth is expected to be 2.9% both in 2019 (unchanged) and 2020 (lowered from 3%).  Further details of the report revealed that the OECD sees the United States' growth at 2.3% in 2019 and 2 % in 2020 while forecasting the Chinese economy to expand by 6.2% in 2019 and 5.7% in 2020. This publication had virtually no impact on the market sentiment and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield was up 1% while major European equity indexes were posting modest daily losses. 

In its latest report published on Thursday, the global rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, revised down its 2022 outlook on the Emerging Markets

In its latest report published on Thursday, the global rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, revised down its 2022 outlook on the Emerging Markets (EM) amid rising trade, policy and political risks. Key Points: “Emerging market growth slowed significantly in 2019 and the outlook for emerging markets in 2020 has tipped over to negative due to uncertainties around trade, politics and policy.” Moody's Senior Vice President Gersan Zurita noted: Although recession risk is in focus globally, we do not expect a recession to materialize in any of the larger emerging market economies except in Argentina. Emerging markets will continue to have higher growth than developed markets with an expected average economic growth above 4.5% in 2020, compared with just under 1.5% across the largest advanced economies in 2020. However, growth rates are well below their historical averages, particularly in larger economics like Mexico, Russia, India and China. “There is also a difference across various sectors in emerging markets. For instance, the slowdown in global trade in 2019 has dented emerging market manufacturing and export sectors. Meanwhile, Moody's expects stable conditions for infrastructure sectors in emerging markets.”  

WTI fades bounce to 200-day EMA following an escalation in US-China tussle With the trade/political jitters between the world’s top two economies lik

Oil dips in Asia on waning trade optimism Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic are flashing red amid warning US-China trade optimism and the resulting risk-off tone in the global markets. At press time, a barrel of Brent is changing hands at $62.20, representing a 0.35% drop on the day. WTI is also trading in the red at $56.90 per barrel. The losses could be associated with reports stating that the phase one" U.S.-China trade deal could slip into next year. Read more… WTI fades bounce to 200-day EMA following an escalation in US-China tussle With the trade/political jitters between the world’s top two economies likely challenging global energy demand, WTI stops the recent recovery below 200-day EMA while taking rounds to $57.00 during the Asian morning on Thursday. The trade stalemate between the United States (US) and China worsened recently after President Trump said he doesn’t think “China is stepping up to the level I want in trade talks.” Also contributing to the pessimism is the Reuters’ news that Trump is expected to sign Hong Kong Human Rights Bill passed by Congress. Read more...

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) struggles to regain the 57 handle, as the bears retain control amid looming trade risks that keep the sentiment around the

Oil’s upside attempts appear limited by trade deal anxiety.Bulls supported by upbeat US EIA Crude Stocks data, Russia’s Putin. Trade/political developments to drive the oil market sentiment. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) struggles to regain the 57 handle, as the bears retain control amid looming trade risks that keep the sentiment around the higher-yielding oil dampened. The black gold’s 3% rebound seen on Wednesday fell short of the 200-DMA and from there retreated amid renewed concerns over a likely delay in the US-China Phase One trade deal, in the wake of mounting US-China political tensions over the Hong Kong bill. Despite the latest leg lower, the prices remain well supported by a smaller-than-expected rise in the US crude inventors, as per the latest Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released on Wednesday. The US crude stocks rose by a less-than-expected 1.4 million barrels in the week to Nov. 15. Moreover, the latest upbeat comments from the Russian President Putin also helps cushioned the downside in the barrel of WTI. Putin said on Wednesday that Russia will continue cooperation with the OPEC+ under a global supply curbs deal. Looking ahead, oil prices will continue to track the broader market sentiment for fresh directives, as trade-related developments remain the main market motor. WTI Levels to watch    

additional important levels Overview Today last price 71.8225 Today Daily Change 0.0435 Today Daily Change % 0.06% Today daily open 71.779 Trends Dai

USD/INR Technical Analysis: 10-day EMA keep driving buyers to 72.37/38 supply zone Yet another U-turn from the 10-day EMA, USD/INR takes the bids to 72.00 during Thursday’s Asian session. The recovery is also supported by bullish conditions of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which in turn favors further upside for the price. In doing so, highs marked during late-August and mid-November, around 72.37/38 will be the key to watch as a break of which could escalate the currency pair’s run-up to the yearly top close to 72.65 while highlighting December 2018 peak of 72.82 afterward. Read more… USD/INR: Mildly positive as US-China row confronts Indian government measures With mixed sentiment surrounding the US-China deal keeping the USD on the front-foot, USD/INR finds it hard to extend gains following the Indian government measures. Dollar/rupee stays mildly bid while taking rounds to 71.82 ahead of the European session on Thursday. On Wednesday, the Indian cabinet announced steps to divest five Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) while announcing additional measures, such as a two-year moratorium for telecom companies. Moreover, the  Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) released notifications that could positively affect market investments and solve trading problems. Read more...  

The USD/INR pair continued with its struggle to build on its attempted moves beyond the 72.00 handle and remained confined well within a three-day-old

The USD/INR pair has been struggling for a firm direction.Break below 71.65-60 support to accelerate the recent slide.Bulls await a sustained strength beyond the 72.00 handle.The USD/INR pair continued with its struggle to build on its attempted moves beyond the 72.00 handle and remained confined well within a three-day-old narrow trading band.
 
Currently hovering around 200-hour SMA, the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 70.53-72.37 move up – the 0.7165-60 region – might continue to act as immediate support for the pair.
 
Sustained weakness below the mentioned support might be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and accelerate the slide further towards 61.8% Fibo. support near the 71.20 region.
 
Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair further towards testing sub-71.00 levels and also set the stage for an extension of the near-term depreciating move.
 
On the flip side, bulls are likely to wait for a sustained strength beyond the 72.00 mark, above which the pair could aim back towards monthly tops around the 72.35-40 region.
 
The momentum could further get extended towards September monthly peak, around the 72.65 region, which if cleared will negate any near-term bearish bias for the pair.
 
Meanwhile, neutral technical indicators on hourly charts haven't been supportive of any firm direction and thus, warrant some cautions before placing aggressive bets. USD/INR 1-hourly chart  

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above expectations (£8.6B) in October: Actual (£10.509B)

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their quick reaction to the Indonesian monetary policy decision announced earlier this

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their quick reaction to the Indonesian monetary policy decision announced earlier this Thursday. Key Quotes: “Bank Indonesia (BI) left its 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.00% today, after delivering a cut of 25bps each in its previous four meetings. However, it lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50bps in a move aimed at boosting liquidity and supporting growth. While BI has signalled scope for further policy easing, today’s actions suggest the central bank is keen to use its policy space more cautiously now. We maintain our view that the current easing cycle is nearing its end and continue to see just one more 25bp rate cut.”

The USD/CAD pair held steady near multi-week tops, just above the 1.3300 handle, with bulls still awaiting a sustained breakthrough a 5-1/2 month-old

Bulls still seemed struggling to make it through a descending trend-line.The set-up support prospects for a retest of Oct. swing high, mid-1.3300s.The USD/CAD pair held steady near multi-week tops, just above the 1.3300 handle, with bulls still awaiting a sustained breakthrough a 5-1/2 month-old descending trend-line resistance.
 
Given that the overnight move beyond the very important 200-day SMA, a sustained breakthrough the mentioned trend-line barrier might now be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart maintained their bullish bias and have also eased from slightly overbought conditions on hourly charts, reinforcing the constructive outlook.
 
However, traders are likely to wait for a strong follow-through buying beyond the said barrier before positioning for a subsequent appreciating move towards October monthly swing highs near mid-1.3300s.
 
On the flip side, any meaningful pullback might attract some dip-buying near the 1.3275 region (200-DMA), which if broken might negate the positive bias and prompt some aggressive long-unwinding trade.
 
Below the said support, the pair is likely to accelerate the corrective slide further towards challenging the 1.3200 handle before eventually dropping to the next major support near the 1.3160-50 region. USD/CAD daily chart  

The latest data compiled for Reuters from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Thursday, the German exports to the US jumped in the third quarter o

The latest data compiled for Reuters from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Thursday, the German exports to the US jumped in the third quarter of 2019, which partly helped the Euro area’s economic powerhouse to avoid a recession. Key Details: “German exports to the U.S. jumped by 7.6% year-on-year from July through September after a 5.3% increase in the previous three months. The detailed trade figures underline that U.S. demand for German goods remain strong, undaunted by President Donald Trump's 'America First' campaign and his threats to increase import tariffs on European cars. Exports to France rose by 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter while sales to China nearly stagnated.”

Gold prices have been holding steady on Thursday above $1470 supported by concerns that U.S. legislation in Hong Kong could increase tensions between the Unite

Commodity Report: Gold Price Forecast - 21 November 2019 [Video]Gold prices have been holding steady on Thursday above $1470 supported by concerns that U.S. legislation in Hong Kong could increase tensions between the United States and China and delay an interim trade deal. Read more...   XAU/USD flirting with session lows, around $1470 region Gold edged lower through the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the $1470 region. The safe-haven precious metal witnessed some follow-through selling on Thursday and extended the previous session's late pullback from the vicinity of the 100-day SMA barrier, or near two-week tops, despite uncertainty over the Phase-One US-China trade deal. Read more...

Suan Teck Kin, CFA, Head of Research at UOB Group, reviewed the recent move in the Chinese Loan Prime Rate (LPR). Key Quotes “China’s Loan Prime Rate

Suan Teck Kin, CFA, Head of Research at UOB Group, reviewed the recent move in the Chinese Loan Prime Rate (LPR). Key Quotes “China’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR) latest fixings (Wed, 20 Nov) dipped a modest 5bps to 4.15% for the 1Y tenure) and to 4.80% for 5Y and above tenure, which was at the lower end of the range of our call of 5-10bps decline”. “While it is clear that China’s easing cycle has started, the pace of declines seen in the MLF, 7D reverse repo rate and the latest LPR fixings has been milder than we had anticipated, suggesting the authorities are taking a measured and cautious approach to guide interest rates lower”. “With the US-China trade tensions appearing to be easing and major central banks on pause mode, we are adjusting our forecasts to factor in a less aggressive downtrend in the LPR. We now project the 1Y LPR at 3.80% by mid-2020, instead of our earlier call of 3.65%”.

Edward Lee – Chief Economist ASEAN and South Asia at Standard Chartered Bank – offered his take on Singapore’s final GDP report, which confirmed that

Edward Lee – Chief Economist ASEAN and South Asia at Standard Chartered Bank – offered his take on Singapore’s final GDP report, which confirmed that the economic growth stood at 2.1% during the third quarter of 2019 and 0.5% on yearly basis. Key Quotes: “Singapore’s final Q3 GDP print was revised higher to 0.5% y/y from the advance print of 0.1% y/y due to better-than-expected manufacturing data (led by pharmaceutical production) in September. This brings 9M-2019 GDP growth to 0.6% y/y – the slowest 9M growth rate since 2009. The government also narrowed its 2019 growth forecast to 0.5-1% and forecast 2020 growth at 0.5-2.5%. This is broadly aligned with our expectations.”
 
“Looking ahead, we expect the downward growth momentum – which started broadly in H2-2018 – to bottom out. Signs of US-China trade war de-escalation, global monetary policy easing, fiscal support in economies such as China and India, and importantly favourable base effects in sectors such as electronics manufacturing, may push growth up in 2020.”
 
“Global trade developments are a key swing factor. The removal of previously introduced tariffs may help boost investor confidence and trade activity. But similarly, a further deterioration may affect the labour market, where private consumption is the key support to growth (with both trade and investment faring poorly).”

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the pair still looks offered as long as it trades below the 0.9963

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the pair still looks offered as long as it trades below the 0.9963 level. Key Quotes “USD/CHF despite the recovery, the market remains offered while capped by the .9963 6 month downtrend and attention on the .9844/41 September and October lows. Failure at the next lower .9799 September low would push key support at .9716/.9659 to the fore. This is the location of the January, June, mid- and late August lows. Below here sits the .9659 August low and the September 2018 low at .9543”.

EUR/USD maintains the sideline theme in the upper end of the weekly range in the 1.1080/90 band amidst a steady greenback. EUR/USD focused on trade, E

EUR/USD moves once again to the 1.1080 region.The ECB accounts coming up next on the docket.US Philly Fed index next of relevance later in the day.EUR/USD maintains the sideline theme in the upper end of the weekly range in the 1.1080/90 band amidst a steady greenback. EUR/USD focused on trade, ECB Spot is prolonging the rangebound theme so far on Thursday, although a breakout of the critical resistance in the 1.1080/90 band still remains elusive for EUR-bulls despite the lack of convincing upside traction in the buck. In the meantime, the US-China trade scenario continues to deteriorate in response to the lack of progress after the announcement of the ‘Phase One’ deal and lately by mounting tensions after the US Senate passed the Hong Kong Human Rights bill earlier in the week. In the docket, attention will be on the ECB minutes of the latest meeting, speeches by ECB’s De Guindos and the release of the OECD Economic Outlook in the euro area. Across the Atlantic, the Philly Fed manufacturing index should be in centre stage later in the NA session. What to look for around EUR Spot met strong resistance in the 1.1080/90 band for the time being while it keeps looking to USD-dynamics and headlines from the US-China trade front for direction. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In this regard, all the looks will be upon the release of November’s preliminary PMIs later in the week. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.06% at 1.1078 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1089 (high Nov.18) followed by 1.1173 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21). On the downside, a break below 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1).

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index came in at 3.1%, below expectations (3.3%) in October

The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip to one-week lows and climbed to fresh session tops in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through. The pair ext

The USD/JPY pair remained depressed amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty.Sliding US bond yields undermined the USD and added to the intraday selling bias.Fed's patience stance seemed to be the only factor that helped rebound from lows.The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip to one-week lows and climbed to fresh session tops in the last hour, albeit lacked follow-through.
 
The pair extended this week's rejection slide from the very important 200-day SMA, levels just above the 109.00 handle, and remained depressed through the Asian session on Thursday. The prevalent risk-off mood, amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty, was seen underpinning the Japanese yen's perceived safe-haven demand and kept exerting some downward pressure on the major. Focus remains on trade developments Against the backdrop of the US President Donald Trump's threat to impose more tariffs if phase one of a trade deal is not signed, reports that a US-China trade deal is unlikely this year continued denting investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The same was evident from a sea of red across the global equity markets and reinforced by some follow-through slide in the US Treasury bond yields.
 
This coupled with a subdued US dollar demand further collaborated to the pair's early slide to an intraday low level of 108.28. However, the fact that FOMC minutes on Wednesday indicated the US central bank was effectively on hold with interest rates helped limit any further losses, rather assisted the pair to quickly recover around 40 pips from daily lows and jump back above mid-108.00s.
 
Meanwhile, the uptick lacked any strong bullish conviction amid possibilities of a further escalation in tensions between the world's two largest economies, especially after the US Senate unanimously passed the Hong Kong Humans Right and Democracy Act bill on Tuesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a strong buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.
 
In absence of any major market-moving US economic releases on Thursday, the incoming trade-headlines might continue to influence the broader market risk sentiment and help traders grab some meaningful opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

A senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi was out with some comments in the last hour, reiterating that China resolutely opposes US lawmakers passing the Hon


A senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi was out with some comments in the last hour, reiterating that China resolutely opposes US lawmakers passing the Hong Kong Human Rights bill. Additional quotes:    •  China will never allow anyone to destroy Hong Kong's prosperity and stability.
   •  The US has many times interfered with China’s internal affairs.
   •  These actions by the US severely damage bilateral relation and do not help world peace and stability.
   •  Any challenges to China’s system and development path will be futile and has no future.
   •  The US should meet China halfway to build cooperative, stable bilateral relations.
 
The comments did little to ease market concerns or help recover the risk sentiment, capping the USD/JPY pair’s attempted recovery move from one-week lows.

The latest Reuters poll showed that the bearish sentiment on the Asian currencies resurfaced over the past two weeks, as expectations of an interim US

The latest Reuters poll showed that the bearish sentiment on the Asian currencies resurfaced over the past two weeks, as expectations of an interim US-China trade deal faded. Key Quotes: “Majority of 12 poll participants responded by 0630 GMT on Wednesday, before Reuters reported, citing trade experts and people close to the White House, that a “phase one” deal could slide into next year. Bullish bets on China’s yuan slipped, a fortnight after investors turned long for the first time in nearly seven months. Investors scaled back some bullish bets on the Indonesian rupiah, the Taiwan dollar and the Philippine peso, while short bets rose on the Indian rupee and the Malaysian ringgit. Long positions on the Singapore dollar rose to their highest since February 2018.”

Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) up to 8% in 3Q from previous 4.8%

France Business Climate meets forecasts (100) in November

According to the analysts at Deutsche Bank the ECB monetary policy account and Fed speak will be closely watched among second-tier US macro releases i

According to the analysts at Deutsche Bank the ECB monetary policy account and Fed speak will be closely watched among second-tier US macro releases in the day ahead. Key Quotes: “Turning to the day ahead, from central banks we can expect the ECB’s account of their October monetary policy meeting, as well as policy decision from South Africa. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Mersch and de Guindos, along with the Fed’s Kashkari and Mester. In terms of data, we’ll get the Euro Area’s advance consumer confidence reading for November, French business confidence for November and the UK’s public finances for October. And from the US we’ll get the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for November, existing home sales and the leading index for October, and weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, the OECD will be releasing their economic outlook, and we’ll get earnings from Thyssenkrupp and Macy’s. Back on this side of the Atlantic, the opposition Labour Party will be launching their election manifesto today.”

Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac offered his take on the recent escalation of the US-China trade disputes, which might keep a lid on

Sean Callow, Senior Currency Strategist at Westpac offered his take on the recent escalation of the US-China trade disputes, which might keep a lid on the US Treasury bond yields, the Australian dollar and the USD/JPY pair. Key Quotes: “It is just 2 weeks ago that a spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry declared that the US and China had agreed to remove tariffs on each other’s goods in a phased manner. That day, the US 10 year Treasury yield rose as far as 1.97%. Showing the importance of trade relations, this was its highest yield since 1 August, which of course was the day that president Trump tweeted that the US would impose new tariffs from 1 September, accusing China of not delivering on promised purchases of US agricultural products and not stopping fentanyl shipments.”
 
“That run towards 2.0% already seems a long time ago, with the 1.6% handle appearing to be the near term risk. We can’t blame the US economy for this reversal, with data flow such as retail sales not having much impact on yields. At the short end, Fed funds futures imply <5% chance of a 12 Dec rate cut, endorsing the Fed officials’ consistent line that the US economy does not need help from further easing this year.”
 
“So the recent Treasury rally seems to reflect concern over the US economy beyond the short term and a resumption of flight to safety flows. There have been notable such movements on reports of further hurdles to a “phase one” deal. Only a week ago, WH advisor Larry Kudlow claimed the two sides were down to “short strokes”, implying a deal was close.”
 
“It is hard to make such a case today, with news reports of a possible delay till at least the new year seeming more plausible. US Congress’s passage of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 added to market concern of a deepening rift between Washington and Beijing. But the biggest hurdles are probably the familiar issues of how far the US is willing to lower tariffs in return for China’s pledges on US agricultural imports and IP. In coming days, we look for such concerns to persist, capping UST yields, A$ and USD/JPY.”

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang came out on the wires, via Reuters, urging the US to prevent the HK bill from turning into law.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang came out on the wires, via Reuters, urging the US to prevent the Hong Kong (HK) bill from turning into law.  Geng reaffirmed Beijing’s opposition against US passage of HK bill. Markets are weighing in the recent headlines from on trade as well as on the HK issue, with cautious optimism seen prevailing ahead of the European open. China’s CommerceMin: Will strive to reach phase one deal with the US

Gold edged lower through the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the $1470 region.

Gold failed to capitalize on the recent recovery move despite trade uncertainty.Fed's patience stance seemed to be the only factor weighing on the commodity.A subsequent slide, back towards the $1455 region, looks a distinct possibility.Gold edged lower through the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily trading range, around the $1470 region.
 
The safe-haven precious metal witnessed some follow-through selling on Thursday and extended the previous session's late pullback from the vicinity of the 100-day SMA barrier, or near two-week tops, despite uncertainty over a phase one US-China trade deal.
 
The US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs if phase one of a trade deal is not signed. Tensions between the two countries intensified further after the US Senate unanimously passed the Hong Kong Humans Right and Democracy Act bill on Tuesday.
 
Adding to this, reports on Wednesday suggested that the US and China may not reach a preliminary trade pact before next year, which shattered hopes of a partial agreement and weighed on the global risk sentiment – evident from weaker tone around equity markets.
 
Meanwhile, some renewed US dollar weakness also did little to lend any support to the dollar-denominated commodity. The fact that FOMC minutes on Wednesday indicated to keep policy on hold for a while seemed to be the only factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
 
From a technical perspective, the commodity's inability to capitalize on the recent recovery move from three-month tops and repeated failures near a previous strong support-turned-resistance suggests that the recent bearish pressure might still be far from being over.
 
Hence, some follow-through weakness, back towards testing weekly lows around the $1455 region, now looks a distinct possibility amid absent relevant market-moving US economic releases on Thursday. Technical levels to watch  

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate meets forecasts (5%) in November

At its November monetary policy meeting on Thursday, Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), left its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.00

At its November monetary policy meeting on Thursday, Indonesia’s central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), left its 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 5.00%, as widely expected. The central bank stood pat after four successive rate cuts since July. The latest Reuters poll showed that 20 of 24 economists believed that Bank Indonesia (BI) will keep the key rate unchanged this week at 5.00%. The central bank Governor Warjiyo noted that global growth has the potential to improve going forward despite the US-China trade war.

The latest statement is out from China’s Commerce Ministry on the US-China trade talks and likely trade deal. Key Quotes: Trade teams will continue to

The latest statement is out from China’s Commerce Ministry on the US-China trade talks and likely trade deal. Key Quotes: Trade teams will continue to maintain communications. Will strive to reach phase one deal with the US. Disagreements in trade talks with the US., says outside rumours not accurate. The risk recovery is seen getting a fresh lift from the Chinese Commerce Ministry's statement, as USD/JPY heads closer towards the daily tops of 108.67 while Treasury yields turn positive. 

GBP/USD has been gradually recovering from the downfall it suffered after the televised debate between the leaders of Britain's largest parties. How i

GBP/USD has been gradually recovering from the downfall it suffered after the televised debate between the leaders of Britain's largest parties. How is cable positioned on the charts?  The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that pound/dollar enjoys significant support at 1.2919, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, the Simple Moving Average 100-15m, the SMA 5-4h, the SMA 5-4h, the SMA 10-4h, and the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle. Further down, another considerable cushion awaits at 1.2871, which is the meeting point of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week and the Pivot Point one-day Support 2.  Looking up, some resistance awaits at 1.2960, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day, the Bollinger Band one-day Upper, the PP one-week R1 and the PP 1d-R2.  Further above, sterling may target 1.3013, which is where the six-month high and the PP 1w-R2 meet the price. All in all, the path of least resistance is to the upside. This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

Turkey Consumer Confidence increased to 59.9 in November from previous 57

Denmark Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 1.7 to 1.4 in November

The US-based global rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, revised down their outlook on the German banking system, with the key highlights found b

The US-based global rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, revised down their outlook on the German banking system, with the key highlights found below. "The creditworthiness of German banks is set to decline." "Deposits are proving to be costly for German banks." "German banks' profitability to weaken in a low-interest rate environment."

CME Group’s advanced data for JPY futures markets noted open interest rose for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, now by around 1.4K contrac

CME Group’s advanced data for JPY futures markets noted open interest rose for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, now by around 1.4K contracts. Volume, too, reversed the previous drop and increased by around 54.5K contracts. USD/JPY looks cautious below 109.00USD/JPY is prolonging the sidelined theme below the 109.00 handle amidst rising open interest and volume and against the backdrop of fading optimism on a trade deal anytime soon. That said, the cautious/neutral bias is expected to persist at least in the short-term, while a move to the 108.00 neighbourhood should surprise no one.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 21: Trade: Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has said that he is cautiously optimistic about reaching Ph

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, November 21:Trade: Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has said that he is cautiously optimistic about reaching Phase One of a deal but confused as to what the US wants. Relations between the world's largest economies worsened when the Senate passed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong. President Donald Trump may sign the bill into law as soon as today. CNBC's Kayla Tausche reported that the trade deal is in trouble. Markets remain under some pressure.Fed: The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes from the October meeting have shown that the most judged that barring a material reassessment of the outlook, rates are at an appropriate level. Overall, the document was in line with the bank's message that it remains on hold. See FOMC minutes dash hope for future rate cuts, trade deal worries send equities plungingUK Elections: The opposition Labour Party will unveil its manifesto today, in which it will criticize billionaires and offer steps to tackle inequality. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has hinted at tax relief on Wednesday. Opinion polls continue showing the Conservatives in the lead, boosting GBP/USD.Impeachment: US Ambassador to the EU and Republican donor Gordon Sondland said that Trump and other senior officials were all involved in a quid-pro-quo deal with Ukraine. His bombshell testimony has yet to move markets. Euro-zone: The German finance ministry's monthly report noted weakening global economic momentum. The European Central Bank releases its meeting minutes from former President Mario Draghi's last meeting at the helm.USD/CAD has stabilized above 1.33 after Canadian inflation figures were roughly within expectations. Stephen Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, speaks today. Oil prices have stabilized after advancing on Wednesday.US indicators: The US economic calendar features the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales. See Existing-Home Sales Preview: Sales follow mortgage ratesCryptocurrencies remain on the back foot with Bitcoin clinging to $8,000. More Trump Impeachment: Markets will not like any replacement

In light of flash data for GBP futures markets from CME Group, investors added just 646 contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, rever

In light of flash data for GBP futures markets from CME Group, investors added just 646 contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday, reversing the previous pullback. In the same direction, volume went up by nearly 1.5K contracts. GBP/USD remains capped by 1.3000Cable inconclusive price action on Wednesday was accompanied by rising open interest and volume, opening the door for the continuation of the sideline theme, at least in the short-term horizon and always tracking headlines from the upcoming UK elections.

The ING Bank analysts noted that Thailand’s “accelerated trade decline in October tells us more about past history than the current trend, which alrea

The ING Bank analysts noted that Thailand’s “accelerated trade decline in October tells us more about past history than the current trend, which already looks to have turned for the better.” Key Quotes:“Thailand’s October trade figures released today showed steeper than expected declines in both exports and imports. Exports fell by 4.5% year-on-year and imports were down 7.6%, yielding a narrower monthly trade surplus of $507 million compared with $1.3 billion in September. Trade growth was weaker than a consensus that centred on -3.7% YoY for exports and -6.5% for imports, but the trade surplus was higher than $419 million expected. Although the monthly trade surplus narrowed sharply in October, the cumulative surplus of $7.9 billion in the first 10 months of the year is up by $3.5 billion from the same period of 2018. Indeed, this will be associated with a wider current account surplus this year, marking the end of a brief trend of narrowing in 2018. We don’t see this trade report carrying much market impact, especially on the currency (Thai baht, THB) for which it matters most. However, the THB continues to enjoy the strong backing of a large current account surplus.”

According to Danske Bank analysts, Thursday's key focus will be on the incoming US-China trade-related headlines and the release of the minutes from t

According to Danske Bank analysts, Thursday's key focus will be on the incoming US-China trade-related headlines and the release of the minutes from the October ECB policy meeting. Key Quotes: “With few economic releases of notice, the market focus will probably remain on the prospects of China and the US reaching a phase one trade deal anytime soon or whether it risks slipping into next year as some news stories alluded to yesterday.”
 
“In the euro area, the minutes from the October ECB meeting are due for release today. The meeting was rather uneventful and we expect the minutes to contain few new insights. However, we will scrutinise the minutes for the Governing Council's thinking on the QE ISIN limits and any views on whether these self-imposed rules could be bent. Furthermore, the minutes will also reveal whether the frictions in the Government Council we saw after the September meeting still linger.”
 
“In Denmark, wage earner employment figures for September are due on Thursday. Employment rose by just 200 in August and job growth has generally stalled over the summer. Hence, the September figures will provide an even better insight into the extent of the slowdown in the labour market.”

Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) President Takashi Tsukioka was on the wires earlier on Thursday, via Reuters, OPEC and other producers are likely

Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) President Takashi Tsukioka was on the wires earlier on Thursday, via Reuters, OPEC and other producers are likely to agree to extend an existing deal to cut oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) when they meet next month, Reuters reports. Note that OPEC meets on Dec. 5 in Vienna, followed by talks with a group of other exporters, including Russia, known as OPEC+. Both crude benchmarks are trading a touch lower in early Europe, as the sentiment remains dented by the uncertainty around the US-China trade deal, especially in light of the latest US-China political tensions over the Hong Kong bill. WTI keeps its range below the 57 handle while Brent defends the 62 mark.

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assessed the recently published inflation figures in Malaysia. Key Quotes “Headlin

UOB Group’s Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting assessed the recently published inflation figures in Malaysia. Key Quotes “Headline inflation held steady at 1.1% y/y in Oct (Sep: 1.1% y/y). This came in line with market and our estimates. Higher communication, health, and education services inflation held up overall CPI. Year-to-date, inflation averaged 0.6% in Jan-Oct 2019 (Jan-Oct 2018: 1.1%)”. “The floating of fuel pump prices on a gradual basis starting in Jan 2020, a planned upward adjustment in water tariffs nationwide, and base effects would be key factors lifting inflation in 2020. We expect inflation to hover around 1.1%-1.3% for the remaining two months of 2019, before edging up above 2.0% in 2020. This leaves average full-year inflation at 0.8% in 2019 (vs. MOF forecast: 0.9%; 2018: 1.0%) and 2.5% for 2020 (MOF forecast: 2.0%)”. “Despite expectations of higher inflation, projected levels of 2.5% in 2020 are considered reasonable. Moreover, inflation risks should be contained amid moderate demand. We do not think the upward trajectory of inflation would constrain the central bank’s ability to ease monetary policy next year. With inflation risks largely contained while risks to growth are tilted to the downside, we expect Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to lower the overnight policy rate (OPR) by another 25bps to 2.75% in 1Q 2020. This is to safeguard domestic growth amid lingering trade uncertainties and muted investments”.

FX option expiries for Nov 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0950 684m 1.1000 1.2bn 1.1025 605m

FX option expiries for Nov 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0950 684m  1.1000 1.2bn 1.1025 605m 1.1035 669m 1.1050 884m 1.1090 1.2bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.2910 201m  1.2945 305m  1.2955 421m  1.2965 418m  1.2990 322m  1.3000 1.5bn  - USD/JPY: USD amounts  107.75 400m  108.00 851m  108.20 411m  108.30 994m  108.35 465m  108.40 1.1bn  108.45 447m  108.50 1.2bn  108.65 360m  108.70 412m  108.75 620m  109.25 380m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts  0.6850 1.9bn  0.6865 861m  - NZD/USD: NZD amounts  0.6360 428m  0.6400 825m  0.6480 302m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts  0.8525 391m

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the pair could still move to the 1.1180 region if clears the area

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the pair could still move to the 1.1180 region if clears the area around 1.1090. Key Quotes “No change. EUR/USD continues to recover off the 61.8% retracement at 1.0994 and we have seen a recovery to the 55 day ma at 1.1089. We will need to regain this for a viable retest of the 1.1180 recent high (favoured). While capped by the 55 day ma, the market is regarded as under pressure and capable of extending the decline to the next Fibonacci support at 1.0943”. “Above 1.1180 will target the 1.1262 top of the channel and the 1.1359 200 week ma”.

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, this time by around 1.7K contracts according to preliminary

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, this time by around 1.7K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume reversed two consecutive pullbacks and increased by around 47.7K contracts. EUR/USD faces some consolidation near termEUR/USD continues to struggle around the 1.1080/90 band amidst rising open interest and volume. That said, the pair could move into a consolidative phase while remains capped by this area in the near-term.

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is struggling for direction in the proximity of 97.90 on Thursday. US Dollar Index focused o

DXY returns to the sub-98.00 region on Thursday.FOMC minutes stressed the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ stance.Philly Fed index, Claims, Fedspeak next on the docket.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is struggling for direction in the proximity of 97.90 on Thursday. US Dollar Index focused on trade, docket The index is alternating gains with losses in the second half of the week around the 97.90 region, coming under some selling pressure after being rejected from weekly tops beyond 98.00 the figure on Wednesday. As always, the greenback keeps tracking the headlines from the US-China trade dispute. In this regard, investors’ sentiment took a hit on Wednesday after news suggested that the ‘Phase One’ deal could not be ready this year. On another front, the FOMC minutes published on Wednesday reinforced the current ‘on hold’ stance from the Federal Reserve, while the Committee also highlighted the solid health of the labour market and reiterated that inflation remains close to the symmetric target. Later today, the Philly Fed manufacturing gauge will be in the limelight seconded by usual weekly Claims and speeches by Cleveland Fed L.Mester (2020 voter, hawkish) and N.Kashkari (2020 voter, dovish). What to look for around USD The index seems to have met solid contention in the 97.70 region for the time being. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade dispute are expected to remain as the exclusive driver when comes to price action in the global markets, while investors keep monitoring US fundamentals amidst the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Federal Reserve and the steepening of the 2y-10y yield curve seen as of late. Moving to US politics, markets keep ignoring developments from the Trump’s impeachment process, while the impact on the FX space remains muted so far. On the broader view, however, the outlook on the greenback still looks constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 97.88 a breakout of 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the other hand, immediate contention is located at 97.68 (monthly low Nov.18) seconded by 97.56 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

The risk-off sentiment remained at full steam in Asia this Thursday, mainly in response to the reports of a potential delay in the US-China trade deal

The risk-off sentiment remained at full steam in Asia this Thursday, mainly in response to the reports of a potential delay in the US-China trade deal. Meanwhile, the US Congress approval of the Hong Kong bill also worsened the market mood further, as markets moved past the cautious FOMC minutes. The risk-off action in the Asian equities, Wall Street futures and Treasury yields offered temporary respite to the US dollar while most majors traded in thin ranges. Gold prices lacked a clear direction around 1470 levels. Across the fx board, most majors bounced-off their session lows, with USD/JPY back above 108.50, Aussie re-attempted 0.6800 and Kiwi near daily tops of 0.6420. The upbeat comments on the trade deal from China’s Vice-Premier Liu He helped the risk assets to recover some ground, although the sentiment remained fragile, especially in light of US President Trump expected to sign the Hong Kong bill in law. Among others, the USD/CAD pair erased gains and tested the 1.33 handle despite weaker oil prices.   Heading into the European open, both the EUR/USD pair and Cable are trading better bid, although awaits fresh trading impetus ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) minutes.   Main Topics in Asia US-China headlines Four sources close to phase one talks… - CNBC US Pres. Trump: Do not think China is stepping up to the level I want in trade talks US House approves Hong Kong bill, sends to White House Trump expected to sign Hong Kong bill into law, various trade headlines weighs on risk sentiment China’s Vice-Premier Liu: “Cautiously optimistic” about reaching a trade deal China State Think Tank: Hong Kong issue is definitely a negative factor in trade talks Hong Kong Govt: We are strongly opposed to the passage of the Hong Kong bill in the House Other key headlines US House Intelligence Committee votes down Republican request to compel testimony by impeachment whistleblower and Hunter Biden BOJ holds 43.5% of all outstanding Japanese government debt German FinanceMin: German exports stabilized, but trade risks remain AUD bearish: Moody's downgrades Australian states' outlook to 'negative' China's Premier Li: Chinese economy has maintained stable performance this year IMF’s Georgieva: We should move from trade truce to trade peace Key Focus Ahead Amid a data-light EUR calendar, the Indonesian monetary policy decision and Swiss Industrial Production, both due at 0730 GMT, will be eyed ahead of the key ECB’s latest meeting’s minutes, dropping in at 1230 GMT. In the meantime, the speeches from the ECB policymakers  Mersch and De Guindos and the UK politics will grab some attention, as the main market driver is likely to remain the US-China trade and political developments. In the NA session, a fresh batch of US second-tier data will be published at 1330 GMT, including the weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. At the same time, the Canadian ADP Employment Change data, Fed’s Mester’s speech and BOC Governor Poloz speech are also due for release. Later in the session, all eyes will be on the US Existing Home Sales data and Eurozone Consumer Confidence figures dropping in at 1500 GMT. Also, of note remains the speech by Fed’s Kashkari and Canadian Financial System Review later on around 1530 GMT. EUR/USD: Bearish hammer on D1 ahead of ECB minutes EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) October policy meeting, which are expected to show the members stand divided on which course to take. Waning trade optimism will likely keep the EUR on the defensive.  GBP/USD turns positive above 21-DMA as challenges to Tories recede With the Tory supporters paying little heed to the previous day’s ITV debate, not to forget a surprise turnaround in the opposition Labour party loyalists, GBP/USD trades  better bid above 1.2900 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Gold looks heavy with signs of indecision on the daily chart Gold could slip into losses as technical charts are indicating the recovery rally has run out of steam. The market sentiment is still quite bearish as the metal is struggling despite US-China political tensions.  US existing home sales preview: Sales follow mortgage rates Existing home sales expected to improve in October after September’s unexpected decline. Largest US housing category has recovered this year following January’s sharp fall. Home sales have climbed as mortgage rates have declined.  

With the global ire over the US-China trade differences beating equities from the front and the center, Asian stocks keep the red.

US-China trade row turns severe after the US Congress passes the Hong Kong bill.Mixed responses from China/Hong Kong diplomats fail to impress Asian equity buyers.FOMC minutes turned out as a non-event, eyes on the US second-tier housing/manufacturing data, more Fedspeak.With the global ire over the US-China trade differences beating equities from the front and the center, Asian stocks keep the red while heading into the European session on Thursday. The United States (US) President Donald Trump’s initial dissatisfaction from the Chinese proposals triggered the risk aversion wave during early Asian hours. The pessimism got severe after the US House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong Human Rights Bill. Though, China’s Vice Premier Liu He still stays “cautiously optimistic” as the US President Trump has the right to use veto and turn down the bill that can extend meddling in Hong Kong protests. It’s worth mentioning that most market forecasts, including that from Reuters and Bloomberg signal the Republican leader will not stop the bill from being the law. On the positive side, Standard Chartered cited improvement in China’s manufacturing while India announced measures to help the struggling economy, which Moody’s anticipated to soften soon. With this, the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.3% while Japan’s NIKKEI liquidates around 0.80% of gains earned previously. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yields and the S&P 500 Futures stay sluggish around 1.73% and 3,100 respectively. Looking at the market-specific performances, Hong Kong’s HANG SENG and Philippines’ PSEI Composite lead the way to the south with more than 1.5% losses by the press time. On the other hand, India’s BSE SENSEX seems to be the least affected with -0.16% figures by the time of writing the article. Furthermore, stocks in China, Australia and New Zealand were all in red. While minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting failed to offer any clear guidelines to the global markets, investors will keep eyes on the second-tier housing and manufacturing data, not to forget the Fedspeak, from the US. On the Asian front, monetary policy decision by the Bank Indonesia will be observed where no change in the benchmark rate of 5.0% is expected.

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume rose from previous 1.4% to 2.2% in September

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) unchanged at 3.5% in October

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj down to -2 in November from previous -1

While failure to break 200-bar SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement speaks loudly of the USD/CHF pair’s weakness, a month-old symmetrical triangle is in focus.

USD/CHF fails to extend uptick beyond 200-bar SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement.The symmetrical triangle continues to favor sideways momentum.While failure to break 200-bar SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement speaks loudly of the USD/CHF pair’s weakness, a month-old symmetrical triangle could restrict pair’s near-term moves. The quote takes the rounds to 0.9910 by the press time of the pre-European session on Thursday. Given the quote’s latest slip beneath key technical levels, prices are likely to revisit the support line of the five-week-old symmetrical triangle formation, at 0.9870, a break of which will open the doors for the pair additional weakness towards October month low near 0.9835 and the September bottom close to 0.9800. On the contrary, 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.9920 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of October month declines, at 0.9935, could keep buyers await. In a case of pair’s rise past-0.9935, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the triangle’s resistance can question bulls around 0.9955 and 0.9975 respectively. Though, a sustained run-up past-0.975 enables the optimists to take aim at 1.0000 and 1.0030. USD/CHF 4-hour chart Trend: Sideways  

GBP/USD recovers as Tory supporters ignore the previous day’s ITV debate, not to forget a surprise turnaround in the opposition Labour party loyalist.

GBP/USD stops the previous two day's downpour.Languishing support for the second referendum, upbeat polls for Conservatives stopped sellers off-late.US-China checks the upside amid a lack of major catalysts from the UK.With the Tory supporters paying little heed to the previous day’s ITV debate, not to forget a surprise turnaround in the opposition Labour party loyalists, GBP/USD trades around 1.2930 while heading into the London open on Thursday. Although immediate polls following ITV debate between the UK PM Johnson and the opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn challenges Tories, the latest polls from Savanta ComRes says that almost one in five Labour voters are considering backing the Tories. Additionally, the Guardian’s news conveying the collapse of the second referendum pressure group also pleased the Conservatives. Despite that, challenges to the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) stay tall as votes still doubt why the Tory leaders don’t release the report of Russian meddling into Brexit referendum. Also limiting the Tories’ credibility is the row over fake fact check. Markets have recently come under pressure as the United States (US) and China stay on the loggerheads over the trade matters while the US House of Representatives approved the Hong Kong bill. Risk-tone stays sluggish with the US 10-year treasury yield and the Asian stocks both flashing red signals. While a lack of major data/events could keep trade/political headlines concerning the US and China in the spotlight, headlines form the UK and second-tier Housing/manufacturing data from the US might offer intermediate moves. Technical Analysis Sellers look for a daily closing below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2880 to aim for monthly low surrounding 1.2770, until then 1.3000 and 1.3015 will stay on buyers’ radars.  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the former People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, as he says that China still has room for fu

Reuters reports the latest comments from the former People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, as he says that China still has room for further rate cuts. However, he adds that he is unclear whether that can effectively avert a potential financial crisis.

The Nordea Markets analysts offer their afterthoughts on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Oct meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Key Quotes: “The FOMC

The Nordea Markets analysts offer their afterthoughts on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Oct meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Key Quotes: “The FOMC minutes revealed that the Fed is done for now. The Committee is still split and acknowledges persisting uncertainties. Recent money market volatility was a big theme in the minutes, and while everybody agreed that the plan to purchase Treasury bills should not be confused with another round of QE, there were some disagreements over the appropriate level of bank reserves, the pace of T-bill purchases and how to best provide liquidity in the future (ie frequent repo operations vs. a standing repo facility). Tonight’s minutes do not change our view on the Fed. We think the Fed will cut again in March, thereby totalling four cuts in this so-called mid-cycle. Thus, growth momentum remains weak and we expect a further slowdown with weaker ISM prints and payrolls, prompting the Fed to reassess its “moderate growth outlook”. On top of that, inflation expectations are still close to historical lows while we also see a clear risk of a correction in the equity and credit markets.”

With the mixed sentiment surrounding the US-China deal keeping the USD on the front-foot, USD/INR finds it hard to extend earlier gains.

USD/INR struggles to cheer Indian government measures to boost economic momentum.The US-China trade/political headlines keep traders guessing.Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker puts India on the second rank.With the mixed sentiment surrounding the US-China deal keeping the USD on the front-foot, USD/INR finds it hard to extend gains following the Indian government measures. The pair stays mildly bid while taking rounds to 71.82 ahead of the European session on Thursday. On Wednesday, Indian Cabinet announced steps to divest five Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) while also taking measures, like a two-year moratorium, for telecom companies. In addition to the Cabinet’s actions, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) released notifications that could positively affect market investments and solve trading problems. Earlier in the month, the government stayed ready to hold the fiscal deficit target unchanged despite global rating agency Moody’s cutting down its growth forecast of the Indian economy. Also on the positive side could Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker that recently put India to the second, after Philippines, in the list of 10 large emerging markets. Trade tussle between the United States (US) and China kept taking a toll on the market’s risk tone. However, recently mixed notes from Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and Hong Kong Government seem to stop traders for further clues. The US-China row flared recently after the US House of Representatives passed the Hong Kong Human Rights Bill. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields remain soft around 1.73% while that of Indian 10-year government bonds seesaw around 6.45%. Further, Asian stocks keep the red with Hong Kong’s HANG SENG continues to be the biggest loser. Given the absence of major data, investors will keep an eye over the trade/political headlines for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis Prices need a successful break of 72.37/38 to regain its strength to challenge yearly high near 72.65, else a gradual pullback to 70.37/36 horizontal support can’t be denied.  

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (-0.2%) in September

In its latest tweet, the Chinese news outlet Global Times, highlighted the looming risks for the US should President Trump signs the Hong Kong bill in

In its latest tweet, the Chinese news outlet Global Times, highlighted the looming risks for the US should President Trump signs the Hong Kong bill into law. The tweet read: “Here is what's at risk for the US if @realDonaldTrump signs the HongKong bill making it a law, as HK govt spox pointed out: $33 billion in trade surplus & cooperation from the HK govt in US law enforcement efforts, including its powerful export ban mechanism.”

According to Iris Pang, Economist, Greater China at ING Bank, there could be more monetary policy moves by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in the pi

According to Iris Pang, Economist, Greater China at ING Bank, there could be more monetary policy moves by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) in the pipeline after the recent rate cuts by the PBOC is really seen just one move to adjust the yield curve.  Key Quotes: “The People's Bank of China controls several interest rates and has cut most of them by five basis points. But the maturities have all been different, meaning that we've really seen just one move to adjust the yield curve. Will there be more?  "Data-dependent" monetary policy is quite unusual in China because most of the time, the PBoC seems to have an interest rate path in mind for the year ahead. But the trade war has changed how the central bank projects its policy.  A positive outcome from the trade war would mean the central bank can stay put on monetary policy, but the reverse will mean it needs to loosen further. Aside from its interest rate policy, the PBoC also has a policy of managing liquidity. Cutting the reserve requirement ratio is a major tool here. Others include the injection or absorption of cash in the interbank market via the MLF and daily open market operations.”

EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) October policy meeting, which are expected to show the members stan

EUR/USD created a hammer candle on Wednesday, warning of an impending bearish move. Waning trade optimism will likely keep the EUR on the defensive. The ECB minutes are likely to show growing opposition to the latest stimulus package. EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) October policy meeting, which are expected to show the members stand divided on which course to take. The currency pair carved out a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, indicating the bounce from recent lows below 1.10 has run out of steam and warning of an impending downside move. A bearish reversal, however, would be confirmed if the pair closes below the hammer candle's low of 1.1053 on Thursday. On the other hand, a close above 1.1081 would invalidate the bearish hammer and signal a resumption of the recovery rally. Waning trade optimism Markets turned risk-averse in Asia, courtesy of reports stating that phase one" U.S.-China trade deal could slip into next year. Traders are also worried that renewed political tensions between the US and China could complicate matters on the trade front. Note that China has warned of retaliation to the US Senate's move to pass legislation to safeguard human rights in Hong Kong. The waning trade optimism may not bode well for the common currency. After all, the German economy, Eurozone'smanufacturing powerhouse, took a big hit over the last 12 months, courtesy of the Sino-US trade tensions. A bearish close, therefore, looks likely. Focus on ECB minutes The common currency may pick up a bid if the minutes show growing opposition to the massive easing package announced by the former President Draghi in September. Any spike, however, is likely to be short-lived, courtesy of trade tensions. Also, the ECB is unlikely to normalize the policy anytime soon, despite the growing rift among the board members. Technical levels  

The NZD/USD pair’s declines below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement pushes sellers to look for confirmation of the bearish chart pattern.

NZD/USD slips below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.The bearish technical formation, MACD conditions keep sellers hopeful.Monthly top acts as the nearby key resistance.The NZD/USD pair’s declines below 23.6% Fibonacci retracement pushes sellers to look for confirmation of the bearish chart pattern as the quote seesaws near 0.6410 during early Thursday. Not only the support line of nearly seven-day-old rising wedge formation but 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October-November upside also increases the importance of 0.6380 as the key rest-point. With the 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) flashing bearish signals, odds are high for the pair’s slip beneath 0.6380, which in turn will open the door for extend south-run towards October 16 low of 0.6240. Though, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6326 can offer an intermediate halt during the declines. Meanwhile, pair’s run-up beyond 0.6445 will negate the bearish formation and can propel prices to challenge the recent high surrounding 0.6470 ahead of taking aim at 0.6500. NZD/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

AUD/USD has recovered from session lows, but the bulls are not out of the woods yet as a bearish pattern on the 4-hour chart is still valid. The curre

The 4-hour chart shows a bear flag breakdown, a bearish continuation pattern. The pair remains on the defensive with scope for a drop below 0.67. AUD/USD has recovered from session lows, but the bulls are not out of the woods yet as a bearish pattern on the 4-hour chart is still valid.  The currency pair is currently trading at 0.68, representing a 0.10% drop on the day, having hit a low of 0.6786 earlier today.  However, it is still too early to call a bullish reversal, as the bear flag breakdown on the 4-hour chart confirmed during the US trading hours on Wednesday is still valid.  The flag breakdown has created room for a drop to 0.6675 (target as per the measured move method). Supporting the bearish case is the below-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). The MACD histogram is also printing deeper bars below the zero line.  The immediate outlook would turn bullish if and when the pair finds acceptance above 0.6835, invalidating the bearish lower highs setup.  4-hour chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Speaking at an event in Beijing, the new International Monetary Fund Managing (IMF) Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that “we should move from trad

Speaking at an event in Beijing, the new International Monetary Fund Managing (IMF) Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that “we should move from trade truce to trade peace”. Nothing further is reported on the same.

Although the United States’ (US) support for Hong Kong protesters favors the broad risk-off momentum, the mixed response from Chinese diplomats troubles Gold.

Gold fails to extend the latest recovery as mixed headlines concerning the US-China phase on deal question markets.US House of Representatives’ support for Hong Kong Bill flares up the trade tension.A bearish candlestick formation joins mildly positive catalysts for the US dollar (USD), which in turn can pull the bullion downwards.Although the United States’ (US) support for Hong Kong protesters favors the broad risk-off momentum, the mixed response from Chinese diplomats and a bearish candlestick formation question Gold buyers around $1,473 during early Thursday. Following the Senate’s approval for Hong Kong Human Rights Bill, the House of Representatives also marked its assent on the proposal that could activate regular reviews of Hong Kong's special financial status and bar exports of many crowd control munitions to the Hong Kong police. The bill is yet to be signed by US President Donald Trump, who is widely expected to confirm his previous support for the Asian nation to exert additional pressure on China. Even so, China’s Vice-Premier and Chief trade negotiator Liu He said he is "cautiously optimistic" about reaching a phase one trade deal, as conveyed by Bloomberg. Alternatively, China’s Think Tank keeps the risk-off alive while saying that the Hong Kong issue is definitely a negative factor in the US-China trade talks. As a result, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw around 1.73% while S&P 500 Futures stay negative around 3,100. That said, the recent minute statement concerning the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reiterated its static bias towards the present monetary policy, which in turn failed to impress the USD buyers. However, the greenback has recently been the market’s favorite due to its safe-haven allure. Moving on, trade/political headlines will keep the driver’s seat while second-tier manufacturing and housing data from the US could offer intermediate moves. Technical Analysis Given the pair’s formation of a Doji candlestick on the daily (D1) chart, prices are likely to extend the latest pullback towards a monthly low near $1,445. However, an upside clearance of 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of $1,481/82 could propel prices to $1,500.  

We are strongly opposed to the passage of the Hong Kong bill in the House. US bills will not help to ease the social unrest. Sends the wrong signal to

We are strongly opposed to the passage of the Hong Kong bill in the House. US bills will not help to ease the social unrest. Sends the wrong signal to protesters.

Chinese economy has maintained stable performance this year We are confident we will achieve the main social and economic targets this year China will

China's Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that Beijing is confident we will achieve the main social and economic targets this year. Additional Quotes: Chinese economy has maintained stable performance this year. China will keep its macro policies stable. We will continue to follow a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.  

USD/JPY eked out moderate recovery from the 200-day moving average support after China's Vice Premier and trade negotiator Liu He noted that he is "ca

USD/JPY has bounced up from the 200-day MA support of 108.96. China's Vice Premier Liu He is cautiously optimistic about the prospects of the US-China trade deal. Related markets, however, are not buying Liu He's optimism. USD/JPY eked out moderate recovery from the 200-day moving average support after China's Vice Premier and trade negotiator Liu He noted that he is "cautiously optimistic" about reaching a phase one trade deal. The currency pair is currently trading at 108.49, representing a 0.13% drop on the day, having bounced from the 200-day moving average support of 108.96 in the last one hour. With Liu He expressing cautious optimism on trade, some traders likely squared off long JPY trades, helping the pair chart a minor recovery. The futures on the S&P 500, however, are still reporting a 0.22% drop. Further, the Asian equities are down with Japan's Nikkei reporting a 1% drop. Further, the US 10-year treasury yield is showing no sign of life. The yield is currently trading at two-week lows near 1.73%. Put simply, the equity and bond markets are not impressed by Vice Premier Liu He's comments and continue to worry about the waning trade optimism amid escalating political tensions. The USD/JPY pair, therefore, may fall back to the 200-day average at 108.96. However, if the equities recover, the pair will likely move into the positive territory above 108.60. Technical levels  

According to an Economist at a Chinese Think Tank, the Hong Kong issue is definitely a negative factor in the US-China trade talks.

According to an Economist at a Chinese Think Tank, the Hong Kong issue is definitely a negative factor in the US-China trade talks.

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) reports the latest comments from Moody's Senior Credit Officer John Manning after the global rating agency downg

The Australian Financial Review (AFR) reports the latest comments from Moody's Senior Credit Officer John Manning after the global rating agency downgraded the Australian states’ outlook from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’. Key Quotes: Lower goods and services tax collection and higher debt will dampen revenues and the ability to keep their economies growing. Lower GST revenues will make it harder for state governments to keep investing in the economy at a time when government investment has been driving economic growth. Public spending on infrastructure is "underpinning economic activity".

Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic are flashing red amid warning US-China trade optimism and the resulting risk-off tone in the global markets.

Oil is flashing red, possibly due to waning US-China trade optimism.Risk has come under pressure in Asia with Nikkei falling 1%.Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic are flashing red amid warning US-China trade optimism and the resulting risk-off tone in the global markets. At press time, a barrel of Brent is changing hands at $62.20, representing a 0.35% drop on the day. WTI is also trading in the red at $56.90 per barrel. The losses could be associated with reports stating that the phase one" U.S.-China trade deal could slip into next year. Some observers are worried that trade talks may fall apart due to the renewed political tensions between the US and China. The world's second-largest economy on Wednesday condemned a US Senate bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he is inclined to raise tariffs on Chinese imports if a trade deal is not reached. As a result, the risk has come under pressure in Asia. The futures on the S&P 500 are currently reporting a 0.10% drop. The index fell by 0.38% on Wednesday. Stocks in Asia are also losing ground with Japan's Nikkei shedding 1.15% and the Shanghai Composite reporting a 0.20% drop. China's Vice Premier Liu He was out on the wires a few minutes before press time stating that he is cautiously optimistic about reaching a trade deal. USD/JPY has bounced up more than 20 pips on Liu He's comments, however, equities continue to operate on slippery grounds. Oil, therefore, is struggling to extend Wednesday's 3% gain. The black gold picked up a strong bid during the US trading hours on Wednesday after official data showed crude inventories in the United States increased by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending Nov. 15, less than the 1.6 million barrels analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts. Brent technical levels  

China’s Vice-Premier Liu: "Cautiously optimistic" about reaching a trade deal

China’s Vice-Premier Liu: "Cautiously optimistic" about reaching a trade deal

On Thursday, the German Finance Ministry, in its monthly report, highlighted the risks of global economic slowdown and ongoing trade war while expecti

On Thursday, the German Finance Ministry, in its monthly report, highlighted the risks of global economic slowdown and ongoing trade war while expecting the country’s exports to stabilize by end-Q3 2019, per Reuters. Key Findings: “Export activity regained some momentum toward the end of the third quarter.”  “Given the weakening global economic momentum and persistent external risks (for trade), exports are likely to continue to develop only moderately.”  “Record-high employment and rising wages continue to support private consumption and construction in Germany while state spending is giving the economy an additional push.” EUR/USD technical analysis: 50% Fib capping upside, bearish hammer on D1

EUR/USD's recovery rally from recent lows below 1.10 has stalled around the key Fibonacci level and a pullback could be in the offing. The currency pa

EUR/USD's bounce seems to have stalled at a key Fibonacci level. Wednesday's hammer candle is warning of an impending bearish move. EUR/USD's recovery rally from recent lows below 1.10 has stalled around the key Fibonacci level and a pullback could be in the offing. The currency pair has repeatedly failed to beat 1.1082 – 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1175/1.10989 – in the last three days. More importantly, EUR/USD created a bearish hammer candle on Wednesday, warning of an impending bearish move. The combination of persistent failure at the key level and bearish candlestick pattern indicates the market will likely test dip demand with a pullback to 1.1050. Acceptance below that level would validate Wednesday's bearish hammer and shift risk in favor of a re-test of the recent low of 1.0989. A bullish revival needs a close above 1.1082 (50% Fib + hammer's high). The pair is currently trading at 1.1078, representing marginal gains on the day. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Amid all the pessimism surrounding Asian economies, mainly due to the trade war between the United States (US) and China, Standard Chartered stand outs.

Amid all the pessimism surrounding Asian economies, mainly due to the trade war between the United States (US) and China, Standard Chartered came out with its analysis of manufacturing recovery into the world’s largest industrial player China. Key quotes “Headline SMEI (Small and Medium Enterprises Index) improved slightly to 54.7 in November from 54.5 in October, the second month of improvement. Meanwhile, the growth momentum indicator moderated by 0.1percentage points.” “Performance index reached seven-month high for the manufacturing sector; was muted for services sector. The retail and wholesale sector was the main drag, with its sales and employment sub-indices entering contractionary territory.” “Production picked up on stable demand; external demand increased, while domestic demand softened.” “SMEs’ (Small and Medium Enterprises) borrowing costs rose, even though banks’ willingness to lend to SMEs recovered substantially.”

The Goldman Sachs analysts, in their latest client note, said that they believe the global economic growth to pick up in response to easier financial

The Goldman Sachs analysts, in their latest client note, said that they believe the global economic growth to pick up in response to easier financial conditions and an end to the trade escalation. Key Quotes: “Annual-average GDP growth is likely to rise only modestly from 3.1% in 2019 to 3.4% in 2020. Risk of a global recession remains more limited than suggested.  By the flat yield curve, which partly reflects a structural decline in the term premium and the low unemployment rate, whose predictive value for inflation and aggressive monetary tightening has fallen.  We also take comfort from the absence of significant private sector financial deficits in all but a few advanced economies.  Our confidence that growth will improve sequentially is highest in the US. And the UK, where we expect the Brexit drag to reverse and fiscal policy to ease. We look for a more gradual pickup in Europe, where the fiscal boost is likely to remain (too) limited, and Japan, where we are watching carefully for a negative impact from the October consumption tax hike. We expect growth in China to slow modestly from just above 6% to just below, in line with gradually decelerating potential.  In our baseline forecast, most DM central banks stay on hold in 2020. At least in the early part of the year. However, the risk is on the side of further easing, especially in the Euro area and Japan.” 

US Defence Secretary, Esper, is crossing the wires and has said that the response from North Korea was not a positive one, touching on the matter of U

US Defence Secretary, Esper, is crossing the wires and has said that the response from North Korea was not a positive one, touching on the matter of US Troops and the news that Trump’s $5 billion demand earlier this month were greeted with shock in Seoul. Key comments Has not heard of a report to withdraw forces from South Korea. The Indo-pacific is a priority theatre for the US. FX implications: The new Pentagon chief is trying to reorient the US military to make competing with China its top priority, as the United States faces its own daunting challenges both at home and abroad and N Kora remains on the map of 'bad nations' for which markets had been roiled by last year. Trump was heavy-handed in his pursuit of dealing with the N.Koreans whereby he stationed some 28,500 US troops as a deterrence against the nation which has tested South Korea’s confidence in the security alliance with Washington considering the costs of which Trump demand Seoul to pay – "Reports of Trump’s $5 billion demand earlier this month were greeted with shock in Seoul and on Monda," Reuters reported, adding, "progressive groups protested at the negotiation venue against what they said was “highway robbery” by “greedy” Americans. While there are no immediate market implications, it adds to the string of protectionism type of themes emerging under Trump's presidency which is keeping risk appetite on thin ice which likely favours the yen as a safe-haven currency. 

Gold is currently reporting marginal gains, but will likely come under pressure during the day ahead, according to technical charts. The yellow metal

Gold could slip into losses as technical charts are indicating the recovery rally has run out of steam. The market sentiment is still quite bearish as the metal is struggling despite US-China political tensions. Gold is currently reporting marginal gains, but will likely come under pressure during the day ahead, according to technical charts.  The yellow metal witnessed a two-way business for the second day on Wednesday. The resulting Doji candle indicates the bounce from recent lows near $1,445 has run out of steam.  As a result, a pullback could be in the offing. Note that the metal is struggling to post gains despite the political friction between the US and China and fading trade optimism.  The US 10-year treasury yield is also losing ground, currently trading at 1.724% - the lowest level since Nov. 4. Notably, the yield has shed more than 20 basis points in the last two weeks.  Even so, gold is having a tough time scoring convincing gains. It clearly indicates the gold market sentiment is still bearish.  A break below the daily low of $1,471 looks likely and could pave the way for a deeper drop to $1,464 and $1,456. On the higher side, a daily close above $1,478 is needed to invalidate the bearish setup.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) are of the opinion that the European Union (EU) requires a drastic thought process.

Analysts at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) are of the opinion that the European Union (EU) requires a drastic thought process to take benefits of the fiscal stimulus. Key quotes “As the European Central Bank (ECB) stretches the limits of monetary easing, attention is turning to fiscal policy. The euro area (EA) has potential fiscal space of 2.0% of GDP.” “Potential fiscal space is calculated using a narrow criteria, based purely on the EA budget deficit. It is unlikely to materialise as rules based fiscal policy limits the growth of the public spending path.” “Hope of a large-scale fiscal boot for the EA will probably be disappointed. We estimate that an expansion closer to 0.25-0.5% of GDP in 2020 is more likely.” “An overhaul of the current rules and a more medium-term focus on policy settings is required.” “That will leave an over-onus on the ECB to support reflation. The monetary policy framework needs reviewing, especially in light of the considerable divisions that emerged over the latest easing.”

Following its lower high formation since Monday, AUD/JPY tests the key support confluence while taking rounds to 73.60 during Thursday’s Asian session.

AUD/JPY drops to the near-term key support confluence.Buyers will look for an upside break of 74.30/35.Bears can watch over 50% Fibonacci retracement during further declines.Following its lower high formation since Monday, AUD/JPY tests the key support confluence while taking rounds to 73.60 during Thursday’s Asian session. Although the presence of 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and an upward sloping trend line since late-August question sellers, gradually descending conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI) and market’s rush towards risk-safety seems to drag the pair below 73.55/50 support confluence. In doing so, 50% Fibonacci retracement of July-August declines, at 73.13, followed by 73.00 round-figure, will be on bear’s radar whereas 72.55 and October month low of 71.73 could please them afterward. Alternatively, prices need to clear 74.30/35 horizontal area including October-end low and the present week’s high to revisit 74.55 and 75.30 numbers to the north. However, a 200-day SMA level of 75.57 will becomes a tough nut to crack for buyers then after. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Bearish  

Clubbed between the US-China trade angst and a less likely offer of the fifth rate cut from BI, the USD/IDR pair takes rounds to 14,100.

The USD/IDR pair struggles to justify broad USD strength and expectations of a no rate cut from the Bank Indonesia (BI).BI officials argue overall doubting sentiment on the Asian economy.The US and Indonesia recently vowed to double the trade volume.Clubbed between the US-China trade angst and a less likely offer of the fifth rate cut from BI, the USD/IDR pair takes rounds to 14,100 during early Asian session on Thursday. The pair recently benefited from the broad US dollar (USD) strength that has begun taking clues from the US-China tussle. On the front, Reuters’ anticipate that the United States (US) President Donald Trump will sign Hong Kong Human Rights Bill passed by the Congress and add pressure on to the Asian economies via trade-war risk. On the positive side, Xinhua released news stating that officers from the US and Indonesia have pledged to edge up the trade volume by twice in the next five years as the two nations still have more business opportunities that can be explored further. Further, the anticipation of a halt to the Bank Indonesia’s rate cut trajectory after four consecutive actions, as suggested by Bloomberg, should add strength to the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR). It’s worth mentioning that the BI Governor Perry Warjiyo and Deputy Governor Dody Budi Waluyo stayed positive for the economy and the domestic currency while crossing wires during the early-month appearances. Looking forward to the Bank Indonesia’s (BI) rate decision, the Asian nation’s central bank is expected to announce no change to its benchmark rate of 5.0%. “We look for no change from Bank Indonesia. BI cut its 7-day reverse repo rate by 25bp to 5% at its last meeting but indicated that they will be increasingly data-dependent going forward. Since then CPI came in lower than expected, while manufacturing and consumer confidence fell further and Q3 GDP slowed. The weaker growth trajectory should not have come as a surprise, however, and we don't think it will automatically imply an immediate rate cut. We expect BI to slow the pace of rate cuts, with a pause expected at this meeting as the Bank assesses the impact of previous easing,” says TD Securities ahead of the event. Technical Analysis Prices need to cross three-month-old falling trend line, at 14,195 now, in order to take aim at October high near 14,275, failing to which can keep prices around 14,100 and 14,000. It should also be noted that 13,880 acts as the key downside support below 14,000.  

Chinese Vice President Wang is crossing the wires, saying that the 'International Order Is Under Attack' ... Additional comments Must make sensible de

Chinese Vice President Wang is crossing the wires, saying that the 'International Order Is Under Attack' ... Additional comments Must make sensible decisions in the face of these challenges. More to come ...

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0217, beating the expected fix of 7.0209 and up from Wednesday's fix of 7.0118.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0217, beating the expected fix of 7.0209 and up from Wednesday's fix of 7.0118. 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) now holds a staggering 43.5% of all outstanding Japanese government debt, Jeroen Blokland, Portfolio Manager for the Robeco Mu

BOJ's massive government bond holdings indicate there is little room for further stimulus. The central bank may have a hard time weakening Yen in future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) now holds a staggering 43.5% of all outstanding Japanese government debt, Jeroen Blokland,  Portfolio Manager for the Robeco Multi-Asset funds, Robeco ONE and Robeco Pension Return Portfolio, tweeted on Thursday.  The central bank unleashed a massive quantitative easing program in April 2013. Under the QE plan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) vowed to buy ¥7 trillion of government bonds each month using electronically created money. The QE program is in its sixth year. Even so, the BOJ remains miles away from its 2% inflation target.  If anything, the QE program seems to have distorted markets. Also, with BOJ owning more than 43% of government debt, there is limited scope for further monetary stimulus.  Put simply, the BOJ is going to have a tough time battling bullish pressures around the JPY during the next round of risk aversion. 

U.S. HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, ALONG PARTY LINES, VOTES DOWN REPUBLICAN REQUEST TO COMPEL TESTIMONY BY IMPEACHMENT WHISTLEBLOWER AND HUNTER BIDEN

U.S. HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE, ALONG PARTY LINES, VOTES DOWN REPUBLICAN REQUEST TO COMPEL TESTIMONY BY IMPEACHMENT WHISTLEBLOWER AND HUNTER BIDEN More to come ... 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to announce the daily Yuan fix at 7.0209 per US Dollar on Thursday, having set the reference rate at 7.0

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to announce the daily Yuan fix at 7.0209 per US Dollar on Thursday, having set the reference rate at 7.0118 on Wednesday.  The USD/CNY pair closed at 7.0343 on Wednesday, representing a 0.12% rise on the day. 

Extending its sustained run-up beyond 200-day SMA and a descending trend line since May-end, USD/CAD is all set to challenge 1.3340/50 supply-zone.

USD/CAD trades successfully above 200-day SMA, multi-month-old falling trend line.Bullish MACD favors another run-up towards 50% Fibonacci retracement, tops marked since August.Three-week-long support line gains sellers' attention below 1.3275.Extending its sustained run-up beyond 200-day SMA and a descending trend line since May-end, USD/CAD is all set to challenge 1.3340/50 supply-zone while taking the bids to 1.3315 during early Thursday. The Loonie pair’s successful break of the key resistance (now support) pushes buyers towards another upside barrier that comprises multiple highs marked since early-August and 50% Fibonacci retracement of December 2018 to July 2019 downpour, around 1.3340/50. Also supporting the pair’s rise are bullish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD). However, September month high near 1.3385 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3420 become crucial for bulls to conquer ahead of aiming at the yearly resistance-line, at 1.3460 now. Meanwhile, pair’s declines below 1.3280/75 support confluence, including 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and multi-month-old falling trend line, could recall 1.3200 on the chart whereas a three-week-long rising support line, at 1.3170, could challenge bears afterward. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

China's offshore Yuan (CNH) is losing ground in Asia, possibly on fading trade optimism. A US-China trade deal is unlikely to happen this year, source

USD/CNH has risen to the highest level since Nov. 1. The offshore Yuan is being offered, possibly on waning trade optimism.China's offshore Yuan (CNH) is losing ground in Asia, possibly on fading trade optimism.   A US-China trade deal is unlikely to happen this year, sources close to the White House told Reuters, sending the CNY lower and the safe havens assets higher. The USD/CNH pair is currently trading at 7.0512, representing a 0.20% gain on the day. Meanwhile, the anti-risk Japanese Yen is better bid at press time and the USD/JPY pair is down by 0.15%. Traders fear the political friction between the US and China may complicate matters on the trade front. The US Senate on Tuesday passed a law aimed at safeguarding human rights in Hong Kong. The move irked China, whose foreign ministry has warned of retaliation. Some observers fear China may retaliate by devaluing Yuan. It is worth noting that the US tariffs on some $56 billion on Chinese goods is scheduled to take effect on Dec. 15. So, if the deal continues to remain elusive, the CNY sell-off may gather pace. Currently, the pair is trading well below the high of 7.1956 reached on Sept. 3.Technical pointsHaving established a higher low at 7.00 on Nov. 15, the pair now looks set to test the 50-day average, currently at 7.0710. Supporting the bullish case is the daily RSI's break above 50. Meanwhile, on the downside, the higher low of 7.00, if breached, would weaken the immediate bullish case. Technical levels  

USD/JPY is on the back foot in a risk-off climate following the news that the US Senate unanimously approved a bill to place trade pressure on Hong Ko

USD/JPY bears in control on trade war angst as price slips below 4-HR 200 MA.Downside technical risks below trendline support are to the 61.8% Fibo target down in the 106.30s. USD/JPY is on the back foot in a risk-off climate following the news that the US Senate unanimously approved a bill to place trade pressure on Hong Kong in support of democracy protesters and the Chinese officials responded angrily. In recent trade, there are headlines that Trump will support the bill and sign it, putting it into law – this was reported by both Bloomberg and Reuters. Phase One' US-China trade deal may not be completed this year – Reuters Overnight, USD/JPY had been on the front foot initially towards 108.80 before sliding to 108.39 on an initial Reuters trade story which suggested the risks that a phase one deal would no be done this year which has thrown prospects of a phase-2 deal way over the horizon. White House Deputy Press Sec, Deere: “Negotiations are continuing and progress is being made on the text of the phase-one agreement” - FoxTrump expected to sign Hong Kong bill into law, various trade headlines weighs on risk sentimentKey notes from the FOMC minutes Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes of the 29-30 October meeting, where it cut by 25bp to 1.50-1.75%, underscored the already well-telegraphed mood at the central bank, confirming that most members saw an ensuing on-hold stance as appropriate. Most judged level now appropriate barring a 'material' reassessment of the outlook.' A couple' said Fed should reinforce statement with communications that another rate cut unlikely without signs of a 'significant slowdown'. Many said rate cut warranted due to global weakness and trade uncertainty. Some favored keeping rates steady and argued outlook was favorable and inflation expected to rise. A couple supported rate cut but said it was a close call. Several concerned some banks had reduced capital buffers when the should be rising. Discussed that risks to the economic outlook remained tilted to the downside. Subsequently, US 2-year treasury yields were testing yesterday's afternoon’s low at 1.56% while the 10-year yields were probing 1.73%. "Markets are pricing only a 5% chance of easing at the December meeting but a terminal rate of 1.18% (vs 1.63% currently)," analysts at Westpac noted.  USD/JPY levels With the price now below the 4-hour 200 moving average, Bears are testing trendline support on the hourly chart, (confluence of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the late Aug swing lows to Nov swing highs), which brings in the lows of the session ahead of the 14th Nov lows of 108.24. The 1st Nov low is located at 107.88 as a ken target. A break there opens risk to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the sale range down in the 106.30s.   

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (2.1%) in 3Q

With the trade/political jitters between the world’s top two economies likely challenging global energy demand, WTI stops the recent recovery below 200-day EMA.

WTI fails to hold on to recovery gains marked after soft inventory build.Russian commitment to OPEC policies and doubts over Iran’s claims to have contained protests please buyers.Hong Kong bill adds to the US-China pessimism.With the trade/political jitters between the world’s top two economies likely challenging global energy demand, WTI stops the recent recovery below 200-day EMA while taking rounds to $57.00 during the Asian morning on Thursday. The trade stalemate between the United States (US) and China worsened recently after President Trump said he doesn’t think “China is stepping up to the level I want in trade talks.” Also contributing to the pessimism is the Reuters’ news that the Republican leader Trump is expected to sign Hong Kong Human Rights Bill passed by the Congress. WTI earlier benefited from the weekly inventory numbers from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The official Crude Oil Stocks change for the week ended on November 15 rose by 1.4 million barrels to come in below the market expectation of 1.54 million barrels. Also, statement from Russian President Vladimir Putin that they will continue to work with Saudi Arabia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on output curbs to provide additional support to crude oil prices turned down the earlier speculations that the OPEC+ alliance will find it difficult for further output cuts. Further, doubts that Iran’s protests, which led to nearly 100 death cited by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and internet outage, continue added strength to the energy benchmark. On the contrary, doubts over the global economy, as suggested by the German Finance Ministry report, challenged the price up-moves. While the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey occupies the economic calendar, expected 7.00 versus 5.6 prior, the market’s focus will be on the trade/political headlines concerning the US and China. Technical Analysis Unless providing a daily closing beyond 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near $57.10, the black gold is less likely to aim at a monthly top surrounding $58.20, which in turn highlights $54.90 and $54.15 as near-term key supports.  

Spot gold is currently trading at $1,473.51 at the time of writing, slightly off -0.08% having moved within a $12 range between $1,466.02 and $1,478.8

Gold is bid in a jittery climate due to trade war angst for which gold can be expected to be a top priority for portfolio managers.A 161% extension meets the 200 4-hour moving average located at $1487.Spot gold is currently trading at $1,473.51 at the time of writing, slightly off -0.08% having moved within a $12 range between $1,466.02 and $1,478.88. Gold has been in a chop in Asia on Thursday as trade headlines take up the market's focus. A series of news has been making for a jittery climate for which gold can be expected to be a top priority for portfolio managers as we approach the holiday season and less liquid markets; Indeed, gold can attract a safe-haven demand at times of volatility where investors will be looking for a place to invest their idle capital, especially should stock markets take a turn for the worst.  Trade war headlines take up the focus The discussions over ‘phase one’ of the US-China deal continue to drag on. "The latest report was that the rolling back of tariffs will be tied to the preliminary terms set when the trade talks failed in May," as analysts at ANZ Bank explained, noting that "the Chinese have reportedly demanded that all tariffs imposed after May be removed immediately and then tariffs imposed before that be lifted gradually...Regardless, the difficulty passing even the limited scope of ‘phase one’ highlights how tough getting a substantive ‘phase two’ agreement will be." Overnight, a Reuters report highlighted how there are risks that a Phase One deal will not be passed prior 2020 which played havoc on risk sentiment and associated markets. Gold responded in kind and rallied, as did the Yen. US 2-year treasury yields continued to probe yesterday afternoon’s low at 1.56% and the 10-year yields were testing 1.73%. considering that the markets are only pricing only a 5% chance of easing at the December meeting and with the Federal Open Market Committee minutes underpinning a hold and wait and see approach from the Federal Reserve, gold can continue to enjoy subsequent demand. White House Deputy Press Sec, Deere: “Negotiations are continuing and progress is being made on the text of the phase-one agreement” - FoxTrump expected to sign Hong Kong bill into law, various trade headlines weighs on risk sentimentGold levels   Bulls had breached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday's range which opens scope for a 100% recovery should the price break the confluence of the resistance line marked by the 14th and 18th Nov highs. A 161% extension meets the 200 4-hour moving average located at $1487.  

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in 3Q

With it’s yet another U-turn from 10-day EMA, USD/INR takes the bids to 72.00 during Thursday’s Asian session.

USD/INR bounces off 10-day EMA amid bullish RSI conditions.Highs marked during late-August, mid-November keep buyers in check.Lows flashed during early-August, late-September offer strong downside support.With it’s yet another U-turn from 10-day EMA, USD/INR takes the bids to 72.00 during Thursday’s Asian session. The price recovery is also supported by bullish conditions of the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which in turn favors the quote’s further upside. In doing so, highs marked during late-August and mid-November, around 72.37/38 will be the key to watch as a break of which could escalate the pair’s run-up to the yearly top close to 72.65 while highlighting December 2018 peak of 72.82 afterward. Should there be a downside below the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 71.73, sellers can target 71.50 ahead of aiming November-start top of 71.28. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s sustained declines below 71.28 can have 71.00 as a buffer prior to visiting the early-August and September month lows, near 70.37/36. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Japan Foreign Bond Investment down to ¥119.4B in November 15 from previous ¥528.8B

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥569.5B to ¥110.3B in November 15

Adding to the previous disagreements over phase one deal, the US Hosue of Representatives’ approval to the Hong Kong bill offers further weigh on AUD/JPY.

AUD/JPY extends the previous downside as headlines concerning the Hong Kong bill add global market pessimism.The US President doesn’t think China is stepping up to the level wanted in trade talks.Markets ignore Japan’s ruling coalition’s push for a heavy budget.Adding to the previous disagreements over phase one deal, the US Hosue of Representatives’ approval to the Hong Kong bill offers further weigh on the market’s risk sentiment, which in turn could be witnessed by a downside AUD/JPY quote of 73.40 during Thursday’s Asian session. The US House of Representatives recently passed the Senate approved Hong Kong Human Rights And Democracy Act. The bill aims as requiring regular reviews of Hong Kong's special financial status and bar exports of many crowd control munitions to the Hong Kong police. The United States (US) President Donald Trump will now have to sign the bill before announcing it as the law. However, Chinese media is already on the wires signaling the dragon nation’s readiness to condemn the US Congress decision. Elsewhere, the Republican leader’s disappointment with China’s efforts towards the deal, also supported by the CNBC’s story that relied on four people close to the talks, increases the odds against the US-China phase one deal. Further, the German Finance Ministry’s report added pessimism to markets while citing weaker world economy and external risk. Portraying the trade sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yield and the S&P 500 Futures remain on the back foot. Traders almost ignored the Nikkei news that mentions Japan’s ruling coalition’s agreement to urge government over 10 trillion Japanese yen (JPY) while concentrating more on Moody’s downbeat analysis of Australian states. Moving on, the September month All Industry Activity Index from Japan, -0.2% expected versus 0.0% prior, occupies the economic calendar with no major data/events from Australia up for publishing. As a result, trade/political headlines will be the key catalyst of the day. Technical Analysis The pair nears multi-month-old rising support line, at 73.53 now, a break of which could aim for monthly low around 73.35 ahead of targeting 73.00 round-figure. On the upside, 73.35 seems to act as nearby key resistance.  

With the US House of Representatives passing the Hong Kong Bill, coupled with the President Trump’s trade-negative statements, AUD/USD remains on the back foot.

AUD/USD fails to recover losses made the previous day amid trade/political pessimism.Headlines from the US signal reducing odds of a phase one deal with China.FOMC minutes turned out to be a non-event, eyes on second-tier US data amid no major statistics from Australia.With the US House of Representatives passing the Hong Kong Bill, coupled with the President Trump’s trade-negative statements, AUD/USD remains on the slippery grounds while trading near 0.6800 during early Thursday’s Asian session. The United States (US) House of Representatives recently passed a bill requiring regular reviews of Hong Kong's special financial status and bar exports of many crowd control munitions to the Hong Kong police. The Hong Kong Human Rights And Democracy Act is now on President Donald Trump’s table for a sign, which he is more likely to do, before turning into the law. On the other hand, the Republican leader keeps spreading market pessimism that there could be any trading deal with China as his latest comments mention, “Do not think China is stepping up to the level I want in trade talks.” The same joins the CNBC’s earlier story that relies on four sources close to the talks while increasing the odds of no tariff rollback from the US, which is the main roadblock for the phase one deal at the moment. With this, the market’s risk-tone stays heavier with the S&P 500 Futures slipping below 3,110. The US 10-Year Treasury yields also closed on the negative side, around 1.747%, by the end of Wednesday’s trading session. Previously, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting offered no surprise as the Fed policymakers keep lauding the present measures while staying ready for any action if needed. Given the lack of any major data on the economic calendar during the Asian session, markets are likely to emphasize trade/political headlines for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis Failure to cross 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level, near 0.6830 now, keep directing the Aussie pair towards the monthly bottom surrounding 0.6770. Though, an ascending trend line from October 09, at 0.6790, can offer an intermediate stop during the declines.  

Global rating giant Moody’s recently crossed wires while spreading analysis of Australia economy. The rating major previous cut down Australian economy.

Global rating giant Moody’s recently crossed wires while spreading analysis of Australia economy. The rating major previous cut down Australian economic growth forecast for 2020 to 2.2%. Key quotes Australian states face rising budget pressure from soft economy, record spending programs. FX implications As the news joins the already prevailing risk aversion mood, mainly due to the phase one and Hong Kong headlines, AUD/USD keeps being in trouble while taking rounds to 0.6800 during early Thursday’s morning session in Asia.

US Pres Trump Is Expected To Sign The Hong Kong Bill Into Law, According To Someone Familiar With The Matter... More to come

US Pres Trump Is Expected To Sign The Hong Kong Bill Into Law, According To Someone Familiar With The Matter... More to come

Following the Senate’s approval to the Hong Kong bill, the US House of Representatives passes it.

Following the Senate’s approval to the bill requiring regular reviews of Hong Kong's special financial status and bar exports of many crowd control munitions to the Hong Kong police, the United States (US) House of Representatives recently passed the Hong Kong Human Rights And Democracy Act. The same will now reach the White House for President’s signature before becoming the law. FX implications Risk aversion gains additional momentum with the news as China has severely condemned the US action in Hong Kong matter, which in turn increases pessimism surrounding the phase one trade deal between the two global superpowers. With this, the S&P 500 Futures weakens further to 3,108 (-0.32%) while AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.6800 by the early Asian session on Thursday.

The United States (US) President Donald Trump crosses wires, via Reuters, while giving further negative signals surrounding the phase one deal with China.

The United States (US) President Donald Trump crosses wires, via Reuters, while giving further negative signals surrounding the phase one deal with China. Key quotes “When you build things in the US, you do not have to worry about tariff.” “We are looking at whether Apple should be exempt from China tariffs.” “Do not think China is stepping up to the level I want in trade talks.” “China wants a deal more than me.” FX implications Markets keep the risk-off active amid signals of no phase one trade deal between the global superpowers. As a result, safe-havens could stay strong while trade-exposed currencies like the Australia dollar (AUD) might have to witness further downside.

Magnifying the uncertainty surrounding the phase one deal between the United States (US) and China, CNBC’s Kayla Tausche recently crossed wires.

Magnifying the uncertainty surrounding the phase one deal between the United States (US) and China, CNBC’s Kayla Tausche recently conveyed messages from four people close to the talks. The overall tone seems to keep the risk of the additional US tariffs on Chinese goods. Key quotes I've been able to talk to four people close to the talks who suggest the deal is in trouble because there is not an agreement between the US and China -- even at the stage -- on which tariffs would go and which tariffs would stay. That there had been a proposal by China that any sort of tit-for-tat would need to be proportional, so anything the US removed China would remove, but the US wants to China to remove more tariffs than the US is willing to remove on US goods, and therein lies the problem. Although one of these people close to talks suggests that the tariffs scheduled for December 15 are on track still to be shelved; that there's still enough belief within the White House and the Presidents team that those should be averted at all costs. Of course the hardest part in this process has been selling the President on that argument. FX implications The news keeps the risk tone heavier with the S&P 500 Futures losing 0.30% by the press time of early Thursday morning in Asia. Also, the trade-exposed currencies, mainly the AUD/USD pair, witnessed additional weakness while taking rounds to 0.6800 at the time of writing.
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