Forex News Timeline

15:43 Swiss Franc edges higher as US Dollar pauses after data-driven rally
The Swiss Franc (CHF) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback softens after a data-driven rally that pushed it to over one-month highs. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading near 0.8015, down about 0.25% on the day.

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At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading near 0.8015, down about 0.25% on the day.US economic data released this week painted a resilient picture of the economy. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198,000 in the week ended January 10, beating expectations of 215,000, while the four-week moving average slipped to 205,000 from 211,500, pointing to continued stability in the labor market.Regional factory surveys also improved, with the Empire State index rising to 7.7 from -3.7 and the Philadelphia Fed survey climbing to 12.6 from -8.8. Meanwhile, Retail Sales rose 0.6% MoM in November, rebounding from -0.1% previously and topping forecasts of 0.4%, underlining firm consumer demand.The stronger-than-expected run of US data, alongside hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, reinforced expectations that the central bank can afford to remain patient on further monetary policy easing, helping the US Dollar stay on track for a third straight weekly gain. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.27, down about 0.08% on the day.Traders now fully price in that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27-28 meeting. However, markets continue to see room for around two rate cuts later this year.Looking ahead, the US economic calendar remains light, shifting the focus toward incoming central bank commentary. Traders will closely parse remarks from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson later in the day for fresh signals on the monetary policy outlook.In contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% for the foreseeable future, as inflation in Switzerland remains subdued and well contained., as inflation in Switzerland remains subdued and well contained. Minutes from the December policy meeting reinforced this stance, with the Governing Board noting that “there was currently no need for monetary policy action,” adding that “neither a tightening of monetary policy nor a further easing of monetary policy would be appropriate at this juncture.” Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

15:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $16.49B in November from previous $-11.58B
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $16.49B in November from previous $-11.58B

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities: $16.33B (November) vs previous $46.62B
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities: $16.33B (November) vs previous $46.62B

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above expectations (260K) in December: Actual (282.4K)
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above expectations (260K) in December: Actual (282.4K)

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $752.5B vs previous $763.9B
Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $752.5B vs previous $763.9B

14:55 Trump signals desire for US control of Greenland – Standard Chartered
European leaders are taking Trump’s Greenland threats seriously but are uncertain on the ultimate goal. They could offer ‘carrots’ in the form of a greater US military and commercial presence on Greenland.

European leaders are taking Trump’s Greenland threats seriously but are uncertain on the ultimate goal. They could offer ‘carrots’ in the form of a greater US military and commercial presence on Greenland. A united European front will be key, with an emphasis on territorial sovereignty and NATO’s importance, Standard Chartered's economists Christopher Graham and Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce report. Greenland tensions to test NATO unity"President Trump has made clear that he wants the US to control Greenland for national security purposes, signalling that both financial and military means could be used. Any military action would pose an existential threat to NATO given that Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, a NATO and EU member. That said, EU leaders may have varying interpretations of Trump’s threats. While some may take them at face value, others may see them as a bargaining chip to increase the US military presence on the territory, gain control of rare-earths extraction, or push European allies into shouldering more of the security burden.""Europe is likely to respond with a combination of incentives and deterrents presented via diplomatic channels. Incentives could include an enhanced US military and commercial presence on Greenland, potentially giving the US the right of refusal to third parties operating in the territory. Europe may also seek to bolster NATO involvement on Greenland and in the Arctic region to address Trump’s security concerns and reduce the rationale for a takeover; this would also make a hypothetical US military takeover more complicated. It will be key for European leaders to present a united front – particularly in articulating to the US what the full consequences of a breakdown of NATO could be, both militarily and economically."

14:49 USD: Dollar edges higher on strong US data and Fed outlook – BBH
The US Dollar (USD) is drifting higher this week, supported by firm economic data and a slightly higher Federal Reserve (Fed) terminal rate, with Dollar Index (DXY) gradually approaching the 100 level, BBH FX analysts report.

The US Dollar (USD) is drifting higher this week, supported by firm economic data and a slightly higher Federal Reserve (Fed) terminal rate, with Dollar Index (DXY) gradually approaching the 100 level, BBH FX analysts report. USD strength likely to persist inless rates fall"The dollar is drifting higher this week on probably what is best described as a macro move. US data has come in on the firmer side, e.g. retail sales and jobless claims, while the Fed's Beige Book presented a view of a gently expanding economy and no immediate threat to the jobs market. Investors have reacted by marking the Fed terminal rate for the easing cycle some 5bp higher this week. That's a 32bp re-rating from the lows seen last October. In response, DXY is edging higher in a very low volatility manner.""On a quiet Friday, it is worth talking about the release last night of US Treasury TIC data for November. The main takeaway is that foreigners continue to pour money into US asset markets. The TIC release is a volatile data set, but looking at the rolling 12-month average, in November the net foreign purchase of US assets was around $100bn per month – compared to around $25bn in the summer of 2024. November's data was notable for strong flows into equities. Around 45% of the large private sector inflow was in equities. And even the foreign official sector bought $23bn of equities. Yes, it looks like the BRICS official grouping is still offloading Treasuries, but these flows are being dwarfed by the private sector.""We would again conclude that de-dollarisation is going to take some time and that if the dollar is to come lower this year, it will be driven by lower US rates and increased foreign hedging of US assets. One possible threat to the dollar over the next couple of weeks could come from heavy intervention to sell both USD/JPY and USD/KRW near 160 and 1500 respectively. The US Treasury is sounding supportive of such activity. Above 99.45/50, DXY can probably continue to grind towards 100."

14:45 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound tests support at 212.0 on intervention threats
GBP/JPY hits weekly lows below 212.00 after rejection at 213.30 on Thursday.

14:24 EUR/JPY climbs as German inflation slows, Japan's political risks persist
EUR/JPY trades around 183.70 on Friday at the time of writing, up 0.15% on the day. The cross benefits from a still-fragile Japanese Yen (JPY), as investors digest mixed macroeconomic signals from the Eurozone alongside rising political risks in Japan.

14:14 Gold steadies after record high amid easing Iran tensions, firm US data
Gold (XAU/USD) remains rangebound on Friday, after surging to a fresh all-time high near $4,643 earlier this week, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.

Gold remains rangebound after hitting a fresh record high earlier this week.Easing Iran tensions and firm US data temper upside, though broader geopolitical risks cap the downside.Markets look ahead to Fed commentary and geopolitical headlines for near-term direction.Gold (XAU/USD) remains rangebound on Friday, after surging to a fresh all-time high near $4,643 earlier this week, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is consolidating around $4,610, on track for a modest weekly gain.Easing tensions in Iran are weighing on safe-haven demand. At the same time, stronger US economic data and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have strengthened expectations that interest-rate cuts could be delayed, acting as a headwind for non-yielding Gold.That said, broader geopolitical risks remain in play, helping to limit downside pressure. Meanwhile, investors continue to see room for around two Fed rate cuts later this year, even as near-term easing expectations fade.Against this mixed fundamental backdrop and a light US economic calendar, Gold is expected to remain rangebound, leaving price action particularly sensitive to incoming geopolitical headlines.Traders will also keep a close eye on Fed commentary for fresh signals on the monetary policy outlook, as the central bank heads into its blackout period ahead of the January 27-28 meeting.Market movers: Iran headlines, US data and Fed signals steer sentiment Geopolitical risk premiums fade after US President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric on Iran, easing fears of imminent military action following reports of reduced protest violence and pauses in executions. However, the United States imposed fresh sanctions on Thursday targeting senior Iranian officials and entities linked to the handling of nationwide protests.On the monetary policy front, resilient US economic data this week have reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to a gradual easing path rather than aggressive rate cuts. Markets are fully pricing in interest rates to remain unchanged at the January meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently see June as the most likely timing for the first rate cut this year, with odds around 46.6%.Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198,000 in the week ended January 10, beating expectations of 215,000, while the four-week average eased to 205,000 from 211,500. Regional factory surveys also improved, with the Empire State index rising to 7.7 from -3.7 and the Philadelphia Fed survey climbing to 12.6 from -8.8Data released earlier this week showed that the US headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% MoM in December, in line with expectations and unchanged from November, keeping the annual rate steady at 2.7%. Core CPI increased 0.2% MoM, coming in below the 0.3% forecast. On a yearly basis, core inflation eased to 2.6%, undershooting expectations of 2.7%.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that he still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year, but stressed that policymakers need incoming data to confirm that outlook. He added that rates "can still go down a fair amount," but only if there is clear evidence that inflation is retreating. Goolsbee also reiterated that the Fed’s most important challenge remains getting inflation back to the 2% target.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that "we need to make sure that we stay in a restrictive stance, because inflation is still too high." Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that monetary policy should remain "modestly restrictive," while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that "policy is in a good place.Technical analysis:From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains stuck in a tight consolidation range, with price action capped between the $4,580-$4,640 zone as bullish momentum cools. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased back from overbought territory and now hovers near the mid-50s, reflecting a loss of upside momentum.Price is currently oscillating around the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,610, which is acting as an immediate pivot. The $4,600 psychological level offers initial support, followed by a stronger cushion near $4,550, where the 50-period SMA comes in around $4,546. A sustained break below this region could open the door for a deeper pullback, while a clear move beyond $4,640 would be needed to revive bullish momentum.

14:05 GBP/USD returns above 1.3400 as the US Dollar rally loses steam
The Pound is trimming losses against the US Dollar on Friday, with price action returning above 1.3400 ahead of the US session opening, up from Thursday's lows near 1.3360. The pair is on track to end the week practically unchanged after depreciating about 0.7% in the previous two weeks.

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The Pound is trimming losses against the US Dollar on Friday, with price action returning above 1.3400 ahead of the US session opening, up from Thursday's lows near 1.3360. The pair is on track to end the week practically unchanged after depreciating about 0.7% in the previous two weeks.The US Dollar drew support from the unexpected decline in US Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, which dropped in the week of January 10 to their lowest levels since November. Beyond that, the New York Empire State and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing reports highlighted a solid improvement in business conditions in their respective regions, boosting confidence in a solid US economic recovery.

These figures cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep its monetary policy unchanged, which were reinforced by the hawkish rhetoric of Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic and Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid later on Thursday.In the UK, November’s Gross Domestic Product beat expectations with a 0.3% growt, to offset October’s 0.1% contraction, boosted by a strong performance of the manufacturing and services sectors. The data eased market concerns about the economic impact of the Labour Cabinet’s Budget and provided some support to the GBP. On Friday, the focus will be on US Industrial Production, which is expected to have slowed in December, and on comments from Fed vice chairs Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

14:00 USD pulls back after testing highest level since December – BBH
US Dollar (USD) retreated slightly after probing yesterday its highest level since December 2, BBH FX analysts report.

US Dollar (USD) retreated slightly after probing yesterday its highest level since December 2, BBH FX analysts report. Dollar faces pressure despite goldilocks US data"The run of goldilocks-type US economic data – neither too hot nor too cold - continues to underpin USD, and US stocks. Still, we doubt the dollar index (DXY) will sustain a break above 100.00 because easing US inflation pressures and weak labor demand leave plenty of room for the Fed to deliver additional rate cuts.""Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 unexpectedly dropped under 200k to the lowest level since November, confirming there’s no layoff spiral underway. Claims have only fallen below 200k a few times in recent years. Nevertheless, downside risks to employment continue to rise because the vast majority of job gains in 2025 have been concentrated in a single sector - education and health services.""The US Treasury International Capital (TIC) data showed that in the twelve months to November, foreign investors accumulated a record $1569bn of long-term US securities (treasury bonds & notes, corporate bonds, equities, gov’t agency bonds). This dwarfs the -$960bn US trade deficit accumulated over the year to October. The Trump administration’s effort to narrow the US trade deficit means fewer dollars will flow overseas, reducing the need for those funds to be recycled back into US securities. That is a structural drag on USD."

13:55 US Dollar Index: More upside likely amid 20 and 50-day EMAs bullish crossover
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 99.20 during the European trading session on Friday, ahead of an extended weekend in the United States (US), correcting from its six-week high of 99.50 posted the previous day.

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Price holds above the rising 20-Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 98.80 and the 50-EMA at 98.79, with these averages acting as immediate supports. The 20-EMA rises marginally above the 50-EMA, reinforcing a positive near-term bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59 (neutral-bullish) stays above 50, backing the recovery in momentum.Momentum would stay positive while the index holds above the 20-EMA, and a pullback could test the 50-EMA as first support. RSI eased from 62.92 to 59.10 but remains above the midline, keeping the backdrop supportive. Continued acceptance above the EMA cluster could extend the move, whereas a close below the short-term average would open the way toward the medium-term baseline.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:49 EUR/USD volatility near 5% as pair remains range-bound – ING
EUR/USD continues to trade with muted volatility near 5%, with the pair expected to remain range-bound as investors fund carry trades out of the Euro (EUR) rather than the more volatile Japanese Yen (JPY), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD continues to trade with muted volatility near 5%, with the pair expected to remain range-bound as investors fund carry trades out of the Euro (EUR) rather than the more volatile Japanese Yen (JPY), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Investors favor Euro for low-cost carry trades"One-month traded EUR/USD volatility continues to languish near 5%. And most are concluding that EUR/USD looks pretty range-bound in the near term. With volatility low, and high-yield and emerging market currencies in demand, it seems investors are preferring to fund carry trades out of the Euro at a cost of just 2.00% (using the one-month implied yield) rather than dollars at around 3.55%.""Funding carry out of the Euro may well be seen as less risky than funding out of the yen, where USD/JPY one-month volatility trades at 8.5% and the Bank of Japan could come in any day now and briefly drive USD/JPY 2-3% lower.""The Eurozone data calendar looks bare and EUR/USD could drift towards 1.1555/65 without much fanfare."

13:45 USD/CNH: Unlikely to break the support at 6.9520 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could edge lower but is unlikely to break the support at 6.9520. In the longer run, USD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

US Dollar (USD) could edge lower but is unlikely to break the support at 6.9520. In the longer run, USD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. USD/CNH is expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.990024-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade in a range between 6.9650 and 6.9770' yesterday. However, after rising to 6.9738, USD dropped to a low of 6.9614. The decline has resulted in a slight increase in downward momentum. Today, USD could edge lower, but it is unlikely to break the support at 6.9520. On the upside, resistance levels are at 6.9680 and 6.9750." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a neutral USD view since last week. In our latest narrative from Tuesday (13 Jan, spot at 6.9710), we stated that USD 'remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a lower range of 6.9520/6.9900'. Our view remains unchanged."

13:40 USD/JPY outlook clouded ahead of Japan snap election – ING
USD/JPY faces a volatile month as Japan prepares for a snap election on 8 February, with outcomes potentially swaying the yen depending on LDP gains and policy expectations, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

USD/JPY faces a volatile month as Japan prepares for a snap election on 8 February, with outcomes potentially swaying the yen depending on LDP gains and policy expectations, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.Political uncertainty keeps USD/JPY on edge "It is hard to have a conviction call on USD/JPY right now. It seems the Japanese lower house will be dissolved next week and a snap election will be held on 8 February. The playbook assumes that any big improvement in the LDP's fortunes is a yen-negative on the view that looser fiscal and monetary policy will be favoured and more likely. What constitutes a big improvement for the LDP? Probably a 34-seat gain such that the LDP party itself commands a simple majority." "However, we have all been surprised by Japanese politics before. And there is little concern that now the former LDP coalition party (Komeito) has teamed up with the main opposition party (CDP), the opposition could offer stiffer resistance. An LDP failure to convert PM Takaichi's strong popularity ratings into more seats could end up sending USD/JPY lower again." "There's also the FX intervention threat, and one outlandish idea we presented in this month's FX Talking was that of joint Fed-BoJ intervention to sell USD/JPY, which would be a game-changer. Suffice to say that USD/JPY looks like a volatile story over the next month and that even at 8.5%, one-month traded USD/JPY volatility does not seem especially expensive."

13:37 USD/JPY: Rally has scope to extend – UOB Group
Strong US Dollar (USD) rally has scope to extend, potentially breaking above 160.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Strong US Dollar (USD) rally has scope to extend, potentially breaking above 160.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD/JPY may potentially break above 160.0024-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected USD to 'consolidate between 157.90 and 159.00'. USD then traded in a narrower range than expected (158.18/158.87), closing slightly higher by 0.13% at 158.64. The price movements still appear to be part of a consolidation phase. Expected range for today: 158.25/159.00." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive on USD early this week. Two days ago (14 Jan, spot at 159.15), we indicated that 'despite the deeply overbought short-term conditions, the strong USD rally has scope to extend, potentially breaking above the roundnumber resistance of 160.00'. After USD rose to 159.45 and then pulled back, we highlighted the following yesterday: 'Conditions remain deeply overbought, and upward momentum is starting to slow with the pullback. However, only a breach of 157.70 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that 160.00 is out of reach. Meanwhile, the overbought conditions suggest USD could consolidate for a couple of days'. We continue to hold the same view."

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.8B to $687.19B in January 5
India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.8B to $687.19B in January 5

13:30 European Gas surges above €33/MWh on cold snap forecast – ING
European Gas prices jumped more than 4.2%, with TTF climbing back above €33/MWh, driven by forecasts for another cold snap across the continent, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

European Gas prices jumped more than 4.2%, with TTF climbing back above €33/MWh, driven by forecasts for another cold snap across the continent, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Short-covering rally boosts European Gas prices"The European Gas market continued to rally yesterday. TTF settled more than 4.2% higher on the day, taking the market back above EUR33/MWh. The move was driven by another cold snap forecast for large parts of Europe towards the end of this month." "Meanwhile, EU Gas storage remains tighter than usual, with it less than 52% full at the moment vs. a 5-year average of 67% full. We have been warning about the potential for a short-covering rally in the market, given the sizeable short position that funds held in TTF through the early part of winter." "Investment funds have already reduced their net short in TTF from 92.76TWh in mid-December to 55.14TWh currently."

13:27 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805 – UOB Group
For the time being, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

For the time being, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. NZD is likely to trade in a range 24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected NZD to 'trade in a range between 0.5725 and 0.5755' yesterday. Our view of range-trading was not wrong, even though NZD traded within a narrower range than expected (0.5727/0.5752). Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and we continue to expect NZD to trade in a range between 0.5725 and 0.5755." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We highlighted on Tuesday (13 Jan, spot at 0.5770) that 'the recent downward pressure has eased', and we held the view that 'for the time being, NZD is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805'. There is no change in our view."

13:23 Oil prices slide as US avoids action on Iran – ING
After five days of gains, oil prices came under significant pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 4.15% lower. The sell-off came as the US avoided taking immediate action against Iran amid ongoing protests in the country, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

After five days of gains, oil prices came under significant pressure yesterday, with ICE Brent settling 4.15% lower. The sell-off came as the US avoided taking immediate action against Iran amid ongoing protests in the country, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Brent drops over 4% amid eased geopolitical risks"There had been growing noise in recent days that the Trump administration was considering military intervention, raising concerns not only over Iranian supply, but broader risks to supply from the Persian Gulf. Any escalation with Iran will also raise concerns about potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint where around 20m b/d passes.""While risks have eased somewhat, they remain significant, keeping the market nervous in the short term. However, the longer this goes on without any US intervention, the risk premium will continue to fade, allowing more bearish fundamentals to dominate.""While we maintain a bearish outlook for the market, we are seeing strength in the prompt ICE Brent timespread. The spread held up relatively well yesterday despite weakness in the flat price. This suggests some tightness in the spot market, likely due to a decline in Kazakh oil flows from the CPC terminal."

13:13 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hesitates at $4,600 with Fed easing hopes fading
Gold treads water around $4.600 after failure to break record highs, at $4,640

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold treads water around $4.600 after failure to break record highs, at $4,640Strong US employment and manufacturing data boost expectations of a Fed pause.XAU/USD is forming a potential H&S pattern with its neckline at $4,570.Gold’s (XAU/USD) is looking for direction at the $4,600 area on Friday. The precious metal failed to breach all-time highs at $4,640, weighed by a stronger US Dollar on Thursday, but downside attempts remain contained above the $4,570 area so far.

Macroeconomic data from the US released on Thursday showed an unexpected decline in weekly Jobless Claims. These figures, coupled with the solid improvements in manufacturing conditions in the New York Empire State and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Indexes, have provided further reasons for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates on hold for some time.Technical analysis: A bearish Head & Shoulder in progressThe XAU/USD pair trades at $4,606, practically flat on the daily chart. The broader trend remains bullish with the ascending 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing dynamic support near $4,480, yet with mounting signs that the rally is losing strength.

Recent price action shows a small Head & Shoulders pattern, a common figure for trend shifts. Beyond that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), approaching the 50 line, suggests a bearish divergence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line remains below the Signal line, although the histogram has begun to contract, highlighting a fading bearish momentum.Bears, however, will need to clear out the mentioned $4,570 area (January 13, 14 lows) to confirm a deeper correction. Further down, the targetis the confluence of the are the January 6 high, and the mentioned 100 SMA right below $4,500. To the upside, above $4,640, the next targets would be at the 127.2% and the 161.8% Fibonacci extensions of the January 8-12 rally, at $4,689 and $4,763, respectively.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:59 EUR/GBP edges lower as German inflation meets ECB target, UK data awaited
EUR/GBP trades lower around 0.8660 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day. In the Eurozone, data published on Friday confirm a clear easing in inflationary pressures in Germany.

12:22 USD/CNH softens as PBOC fix signals RMB strength – OCBC
USD/CNH remains offered after a softer USD/CNY fixing, the lowest since May 2023, reinforcing policymakers’ signal toward a gradual RMB appreciation path. USD/CNH last seen at 6.9668, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.

USD/CNH remains offered after a softer USD/CNY fixing, the lowest since May 2023, reinforcing policymakers’ signal toward a gradual RMB appreciation path. USD/CNH last seen at 6.9668, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.PBOC comfort with RMB appreciation caps USD/CNH"USD/CNH continued to trade with an offered tone amid softer USD/CNY fixing. Yesterday fix was set at 7.0064 (vs. 7.0120 on Wed). This is also the lowest USD/CNY fix set since May 2023. We reiterate that stronger CNY fix continues to be a key signaling tool in guiding RMB on an appreciation path.""PBOC deputy Governor Zou Lan said there is no need to gain a competitive advantage in international trade through currency depreciation. He mentioned that the break of 7-threshold was due to USD weakening and easing tensions between US and China. The comments suggest that policymakers are likely comfortable with the pace of RMB appreciation. We continue to expect measured pace of RMB appreciation unless circumstances change." "Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI eased lower. Sideways trading likely to persist in the interim. Support at 6.96/6.97 (double bottom). Decisive break may accelerate the decline, with next support closer to 6.9460/6.95. Resistance at 6.9920 (21 DMA), 7.03 levels."

12:17 AUD/USD: Major resistance at 0.6745 is not expected to come into view – UOB Group
Bias for Australian Dollar (AUD) has shifted to the upside, but the major resistance at 0.6745 is not expected to come into view.

Bias for Australian Dollar (AUD) has shifted to the upside, but the major resistance at 0.6745 is not expected to come into view. In the longer run, the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase between 0.6655 and 0.6745, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.AUD/USD has shifted to the upside24-HOUR VIEW: "While we indicated yesterday that 'the bias for AUD is on the downside', we pointed out that 'the major support at 0.6655 is not expected to come into view'. We also pointed out that 'there is another support level at 0.6665'. Our view was not wrong, as AUD dipped to a low of 0.6668 and then rebounded to close at 0.6698, up by 0.23%. Following yesterday’s price action, the bias appears to have shifted to the upside. This time around, the major resistance at 0.6745 is not expected to come into view (with minor resistance at 0.6725). Support is at 0.6685; a break below 0.6670 would mean that the upward bias has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected AUD to trade in a range of 0.6655 between 0.6745 since last Friday (09 Jan, spot at 0.6700). AUD mostly range-traded over the past several days, and we continue to hold the same view."

12:10 Silver rebounds after sharp profit-taking – OCBC
Silver recovered overnight after a sharp pullback driven by profit-taking following a rapid year-to-date surge of more than 25%. Silver last seen at 91.29 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.

Silver recovered overnight after a sharp pullback driven by profit-taking following a rapid year-to-date surge of more than 25%. Silver last seen at 91.29 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.Silver pulls back as momentum shows early fatigue"Silver clawed back losses overnight after initial slippages (of as much as >7% weaker) seen during the session. The pullback was attributed to profit-taking activities after the sharp greater than 25% run-up year-to-date, making the rally one of the most rapid in modern history. Though the broader structural bull case remains intact, the technical backdrop signals some caution after an exceptionally rapid extension.""Bullish momentum on daily chart intact though there are signs of it fading while RSI shows tentative signs of turning lower from overbought conditions. A potential bearish divergence on MACD is not ruled out – though price action still needs monitoring. Support at 84, 76.30 levels (21 DMA).""Resistance at 98.70 (138.2% fibo projection from the low of Oct to Dec peak), 103.20 (150% fibo). Bias remains to buy dips."

12:07 GBP/USD: Chance for GBP to test 1.3355 – UOB Group
There is a chance for GBP to test 1.3355; the next support at 1.3315 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, outlook for GBP is negative; it could decline to 1.3355, potentially reaching 1.3315, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

There is a chance for GBP to test 1.3355; the next support at 1.3315 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, outlook for GBP is negative; it could decline to 1.3355, potentially reaching 1.3315, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.Outlook for GBP is negative24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP traded sideways two days ago. Yesterday, we expected GBP to continue to 'trade sideways between 1.3410 and 1.3460'. However, instead of trading sideways, GBP dropped sharply to a low of 1.3364. While the sharp drop appears to be running ahead of itself, there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3355. The next support at 1.3315 is likely out of reach for now. On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.3400 and 1.3415." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from Tuesday (13 Jan, spot at 1.3465), in which we indicated that the recent price action suggests that GBP 'is likely in a range-trading phase, probably between 1.3390 and 1.3520'. After trading within the range for a few days, GBP broke below 1.3390 yesterday, as it plummeted to a low of 1.3364. Given the rapid increase in downward momentum, we are revising our GBP outlook to negative, and now expect GBP to decline to 1.3355, potentially 1.3315. On the upside, a break above 1.3445 (‘strong resistance’ level) would invalidate our view."

12:05 USD/JPY extends losses nearing 158.00 amid intervention warnings
The Japanese Yen drops 0.3% on Friday’s European session, trading right above 158.10 at the time of writing. The pair has pulled back from the 159.45 highs seen earlier this week as Japanese authorities escalated their intervention warnings.

12:02 Oil prices slide as Iran risk premium eases – OCBC
Oil prices fell sharply after reaching a two-month peak, as easing geopolitical tensions and comments from President Trump reduced fears of imminent disruption to Iranian supply, prompting a market pullback, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.

Oil prices fell sharply after reaching a two-month peak, as easing geopolitical tensions and comments from President Trump reduced fears of imminent disruption to Iranian supply, prompting a market pullback, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.OPEC pause and Venezuela uncertainty keep Brent soft"Oil prices fell sharply after touching a two‑month high, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced fears of an imminent Iran‑related escalation. Headlines suggest President Trump is stepping back from a potential US strike on Iran, lowering the risk of disruptions to Iranian supply or key shipping lanes." "We maintain our forecast for Brent outlook to remain subdued but bottom near USD59/bbl by yearend, pending clarity on Venezuela’s new government and resource policy. OPEC’s pause in quota hikes supports soft floor for Brent in highUSD50s."

11:58 USD/MXN breaks lower as 50-DMA caps rebound – Société Générale
USD/MXN has broken below its recent consolidation after failing to clear the 50-day moving average, bringing the July 2024 low near 17.60 into focus.

USD/MXN has broken below its recent consolidation after failing to clear the 50-day moving average, bringing the July 2024 low near 17.60 into focus. Although momentum indicators hint at positive divergence, the lack of a clear reversal keeps downside risks intact, with resistance seen near 18.00 and lower targets at 17.30-17.15, Société Générale's FX analysts note. USD/MXN near key support despite MACD divergence"USD/MXN struggled to cross the 50‑DMA during its latest rebound attempt and gradually broke below the lower bound of its brief consolidation range. The daily MACD has been posting positive divergence however clear signals of a price reversal have yet to materialize." "The pair is now approaching the July 2024 low near 17.60. Should a short-term bounce occur, the steeper descending trend line drawn from last April near 18.00 could act as resistance. The next objectives are located at projections of 17.30/17.15."

11:41 EUR/USD: Likely to drop to 1.1585 before stabilization can be expected – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) could drop to 1.1585 before stabilization can be expected; the major support at 1.1560 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, weakness in EUR has likely resumed, with scope for a decline to 1.1560, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Euro (EUR) could drop to 1.1585 before stabilization can be expected; the major support at 1.1560 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, weakness in EUR has likely resumed, with scope for a decline to 1.1560, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. Major support at 1.1560 is unlikely to come under threat24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted yesterday that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase', and we expected EUR to 'trade between 1.1625 and 1.1660'. Our view was incorrect, as EUR fell to a low of 1.1592 before closing on a soft note at 1.1606 (-0.31%). Downward momentum is increasing, albeit not significantly. Today, as long as EUR holds below 1.1635 (minor resistance is at 1.1625), it could drop toward 1.1585 before stabilization can be expected. Based on the current momentum, we do not expect the major support at 1.1560 to come under threat." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "On Tuesday (13 Jan, spot at 1.1665), we indicated that 'the weakness in EUR from early last week has stabilized', and we expected EUR to 'consolidate between 1.1615 and 1.1730'. Yesterday (15 Jan, spot at 1.14645), we highlighted that 'the price action still appears to be part of a consolidation, but we now expect EUR to trade in a lower and narrower range of 1.1600/1.1700'. EUR then broke below 1.1600 as it dropped to a low of 1.1592. The breach of 1.1600 suggests that the weakness in EUR has likely resumed, with scope for a decline to 1.1560. We will maintain our view as long as EUR holds below 1.1650 (‘strong resistance’ level)."

11:35 AUD/USD steadies around 0.6700 with the US Dollar trimming gains
The Aussie Dollar appreciates against its US counterpart for the second consecutive day on Friday, returning to levels above 0.6700 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the 0.6665 area.

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Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations report, released on Thursday, showed price pressures easing to 4.6% in January, from 4.7% in December. Inflation, however, remains above the RBA’s 2% to 3% target for price stability, adding pressure on the RBA to tighten its monetary policy.In the US, recent data supported the view that the US Federal Reserve /Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged, at least in the first quarter of the year.
The US Labour Department revealed that Jobless claims declined to their lowest levels since November last week, while manufacturing figures from the New York and Philadelphia regions hinted at a significant improvement in the sector’s business conditions in January.Some Fed officials have warned against further rate cuts amid the sticky inflation levels, but the US Central bank is still expected to ease its monetary policy at least once in 2026. The RBA, on the contrary, has left interest rates unchanged at its last meetings, and the market is starting to price in a rate hike. This is likely to keep the Aussie Dollar supported, at least until February’s meeting. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

11:34 EUR/USD pulls back to 200-DMA – Société Générale
EUR/USD has retreated steadily after failing to break above the top of its multi-month range, with the pair now testing the 200-DMA. 1.

EUR/USD has retreated steadily after failing to break above the top of its multi-month range, with the pair now testing the 200-DMA. 1. While a short-term bounce is possible, resistance near 1.1700 may limit upside and keep focus on deeper supports around 1.1535 and 1.1490, Société Générale's FX analysts note. EUR/USD fails at range top, downtrend risk grows"EUR/USD has experienced a steady pullback after failing to break above the upper boundary of its multi‑month range near 1.1800/1.1830. It is now at the 200‑DMA. A brief rebound cannot be ruled out; however, the recent pivot high at 1.1700 is likely to cap upside." "Failure to cross this hurdle could lead to continuation in downtrend. The next potential supports are located at the ascending trend line drawn from August 2025 near 1.1535, followed by the last November trough at 1.1490/1.1470."

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $91.50 per troy ounce, down 0.51% from the $91.97 it cost on Thursday.

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in December
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in December

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in December
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in December

10:57 EUR/USD languishes near lows with US Dollar buoyed by economic data
EUR/USD is trading right above 1.1600 at the time of writing on Friday, practically flat on the daily chart and on track to complete a three-week lowing streak.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD hovers right above 1.1600 after hitting six-week lows at 1.1593.Strong US employment and manufacturing figures boosted the US Dollar.Fed officials Bostic and Schmid warned against cutting interest rates further on Thursday.EUR/USD is trading right above 1.1600 at the time of writing on Friday, practically flat on the daily chart and on track to complete a three-week lowing streak. The pair depreciated 0.34% the previous day, as strong US employment and manufacturing reports cemented the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months.

Economic data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday revealed that Initial Jobless Claims decreased against expectations to their lowest levels since November, easing some of the market's concerns about the labor market deterioration.

At the same time, releases of the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey showed readings well beyond expectations, highlighting a strong start to the year for the sector.Eurozone figures released this Friday confirmed that German consumer Inflation eased to the European Central Bank's target of 2% YoY in December. In the US, the focus will be on December's Industrial Production data and the speeches from the Fed's Vice Chairs Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.08% -0.07% -0.21% -0.03% -0.06% -0.33% -0.16% EUR 0.08% 0.00% -0.13% 0.05% 0.02% -0.24% -0.08% GBP 0.07% -0.01% -0.15% 0.04% 0.00% -0.25% -0.09% JPY 0.21% 0.13% 0.15% 0.21% 0.16% -0.11% 0.07% CAD 0.03% -0.05% -0.04% -0.21% -0.06% -0.32% -0.14% AUD 0.06% -0.02% -0.01% -0.16% 0.06% -0.26% -0.09% NZD 0.33% 0.24% 0.25% 0.11% 0.32% 0.26% 0.17% CHF 0.16% 0.08% 0.09% -0.07% 0.14% 0.09% -0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar remains supported by strong dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trimming gains on Friday but maintains its broader bullish trend intact. Recent US economic reflects a stronger economy, with stubbornly high inflation, prompting investors to dial down their bets for Fed monetary easing in the near-term.US Initial Jobless Claims declined to 198K, in the week ending January 10, from 207K in the previous week, against the market expectations of an increase to 215K.The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index bounced up to a 7.7 reading in January following a 3.7 decline in December. This month's reading beat expectations of a more moderate improvement to 1, which shows a significant strengthening in the sector's business conditions.Likewise, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey jumped to 12.6 in January from the -8.8 of the previous month, also beating expectations of a -2 reading. New orders and shipments moved higher, the employment index decreased, although showing an overall improvement from previous months, while prices remained above long-run averages.In this context, hawkish comments by Fed policymakers provided additional support to the US Dollar. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmid reiterated the need to keep interest rates at restrictive levels as inflationary pressures remain high. In the Eurozone, on Friday, Germany's final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices confirmed that inflation eased to 0.2% in December and to 2.0% in the previous 12 months, after -0.5 and 2.6% respective readings in November. The Euro ticked up from lows following the data release.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD hovers at six-week lows with support at 1.1590
EUR/USD trades at 1.1610, hovering near the bottom of the descending channel from late December highs. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below the zero line on the 4-hour chart, fading momentum, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 36 on the same time frame, underscoring the bearish trend.Immediate support is at Thursday's low, near 1.1590, and the mentioned channel's bottom, now at the 1.1585 area. Further down, the target is the late-November lows near 1.1560. On the upside, previous support at 1.1621 (January 12 lows), is holding bulls for now ahead of the channel top in the 1.1670 area.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jan 16, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 0.2% Consensus: 0.2% Previous: 0.2% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released by the German statistics office Destatis on a monthly basis, is an index of inflation based on a statistical methodology that has been harmonized across all European Union (EU) member states to facilitate comparisons. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is bearish. Read more. Last release: Fri Jan 16, 2026 07:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2% Consensus: 2% Previous: 2% Source: Federal Statistics Office of Germany

09:54 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $91.00 due to risk-on sentiment
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $91.00 during the European hours on Friday.

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Silver price loses ground amid decreasing safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to easing concerns over geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve (Fed) independence.US President Donald Trump said he had stepped back from threats of military action after receiving assurances that further killings would not occur and executions would be halted. Market sentiment was also supported by reports that Israel and other regional allies urged Washington to delay any action, amid concerns over potential retaliation.The safe-haven demand for Silver weakens as the risk-on mood improves after President Trump said he has no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite reported Justice Department indictment threats. Moreover, the US and Taiwan signed a trade agreement on Thursday aimed at boosting American semiconductor production in exchange for lower tariffs.Silver, a non-interest-bearing asset, loses its shine as Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures continue to price in about a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting. Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and policymakers’ concerns over sticky inflation.Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. The data confirmed that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is holding up despite an extended period of high borrowing costs. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

09:38 Pound Sterling remains fragile against US Dollar
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades with caution near its four-week low around 1.3360 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling is under pressure against the US Dollar on hopes that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this month.Fed’s Schmid stresses the need for a restrictive policy stance, citing inflation risks.Investors await UK employment and inflation data, releasing next week.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades with caution near its four-week low around 1.3360 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) trades firmly amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its monetary-easing campaign in the monetary policy meeting later this month.At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto gains near its six-week high of 99.50 posted on Thursday.Traders have almost priced in that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% in the January policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The speculation for the Fed holding interest rates steady is fuelled by the United States (US) price pressures remaining sticky. On Thursday, Kansas City Fed Bank President Jeffrey Schmid also said that the monetary policy needs to be “modestly restrictive” as “inflation is too hot”.Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling is expected to stay on the sidelines as investors shift focus to the United Kingdom (UK) employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released next week. Investors will pay close attention to UK data to get fresh cues on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook.GBP/USD technical analysisIn the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3384. Price sits below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3428, and the later has started to turn lower, capping rebounds.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 (neutral) remains below its midline, affirming soft momentum. Measured from the 1.3793 high to the 1.3009 low, the 50% retracement at 1.3401 acts as nearby resistance, and a close above it could ease bearish pressure.While the pair holds beneath the 20-EMA, the near-term bias leans lower, and rallies tend to fade under overhead barriers. If buyers regain traction with a daily close above the average, upside extension would face the 61.8% retracement at 1.3494. Failure to clear these hurdles would keep price action contained beneath resistance, preserving a consolidative tone.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:34 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Slips below 1.3900 toward moving averages
USD/CAD inches lower after three days of gains, trading around 1.3890 during the European hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair remains within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias.

09:03 NZD/USD gains ground above 0.5750 despite upbeat US data
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near 0.5755 during the early European session on Friday. However, the upside for the pair might be limited in the near term after positive US economic data push out expectations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD edges higher to around 0.5755 in Friday’s early European session.US economic data delays Fed rate cut expectations. Traders expect the RBNZ to leave the OCR on hold through 2026.The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers near 0.5755 during the early European session on Friday. However, the upside for the pair might be limited in the near term after positive US economic data push out expectations for rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Data released on Thursday showed that US Initial claims for unemployment benefits declined 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended January 10. This figure came in lower than the market consensus of 215,000 and was lower than the previous week of 207,000 (revised from 208,000). The Greenback receives support from better-than-expected US Jobless Claims data, which boosts expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates in the next several months. Morgan Stanley analysts pushed back their bets for rate reductions to June and September, from January and April. On the other hand, concerns over the Fed’s independence could weigh on the USD and act as a tailwind for the pair. US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that he has no plans to fire Powell despite the Justice Department's criminal investigation into the Fed Chair, but it was "too early" to say what he would ultimately do. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled that this might be the end of the easing cycle, with the forecast indicating the Official Cash Rate (OCR) could be on hold through 2026. However, RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby stated that the central bank retains "full optionality" and could cut again if the economy underperforms. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

09:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in December
Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in December

09:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 1.8% in December
Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 1.8% in December

09:01 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in December
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in December

09:01 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in December
Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in December

08:54 WTI hovers below $59.00 as US-Iran tensions ease, weekly loss looms
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price moves little after two days of more than 3% losses, trading around $58.80 during the Asian hours on Friday. WTI price faces challenges as geopolitical risk premiums faded following easing fears of a possible US military strike on Iran.

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WTI price faces challenges as geopolitical risk premiums faded following easing fears of a possible US military strike on Iran. Crude Oil prices are heading for a modest weekly decline after three straight weeks of gains.US President Donald Trump said he had stepped back from threats of military action after receiving assurances that further killings would not occur and executions would be halted. Market sentiment was also supported by reports that Israel and other regional allies urged Washington to delay any action, amid concerns over potential retaliation.These developments lowered fears of an imminent conflict that could disrupt Iranian Oil output or key regional shipping lanes. However, analysts cautioned that risks have not disappeared, keeping markets alert in the near term. Analysts also maintained a bearish outlook, citing expectations of ample supply this year despite earlier OPEC projections for a more balanced market.Oil major Shell on Thursday released its 2026 Energy Security Scenarios report, outlining a bullish outlook for long-term energy demand and Oil growth, with primary energy needs projected to be significantly higher by 2050, per Reuters.According to another report by Reuters, the United States seized another Venezuela-linked Oil tanker in the Caribbean ahead of a scheduled meeting between President Donald Trump and opposition leader María Corina Machado. This marks the sixth vessel targeted under US sanctions on Venezuelan Oil, underscoring ongoing enforcement efforts against sanctioned shipments. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

08:27 Forex Today: US Dollar softens as risk mood improves
Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 16:

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Traders await the release of the US December Industrial Production report for December later on Friday, along with the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman. US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% -0.05% -0.14% -0.04% -0.06% -0.32% -0.13% EUR 0.04% -0.01% -0.13% 0.00% -0.03% -0.27% -0.09% GBP 0.05% 0.01% -0.08% 0.03% -0.01% -0.26% -0.07% JPY 0.14% 0.13% 0.08% 0.13% 0.09% -0.16% 0.03% CAD 0.04% -0.01% -0.03% -0.13% -0.05% -0.30% -0.09% AUD 0.06% 0.03% 0.01% -0.09% 0.05% -0.25% -0.07% NZD 0.32% 0.27% 0.26% 0.16% 0.30% 0.25% 0.19% CHF 0.13% 0.09% 0.07% -0.03% 0.09% 0.07% -0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote). A slew of US economic data this week came in stronger than estimates, lowering the implied probabilities of imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. Fed funds futures have pushed back expectations for the next rate cut to June and September from January and April. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had been told that killings in Iran's crackdown on protests appeared to be easing and saw no immediate plan for large-scale executions. Trump hasn’t taken any options off the table, saying that there will be “grave consequences” if killings continue. Related news Gold consolidates in rising channel as momentum fails to reset WTI rebounds above $59.00 as traders assess situation in Iran USD/JPY Price Forecast: Testing consolidation breakout near 158.00 AUD/USD strengthens above 0.6700 in Friday’s early European session. Cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook supports the Australian Dollar. USD/JPY attracts some sellers below 158.50 amid intervention fears. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Friday reiterated her warning that all options, including direct currency intervention, are available for dealing with the recent weakness in the Japanese Yen. EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.1600. The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept rates on hold since ending a rate cut cycle in June and signaled last month that it was in no hurry to change policy again. GBP/USD gains momentum to around 1.3385, bolstered by the upbeat UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The UK economy grew 0.3% MoM in November, following a 0.1% drop reported in October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Thursday. This figure came in stronger than the expectation of a 0.1% increase. Gold retreats from a record high to near $4,610 as Trump softens his stance on Iran, reducing bullion’s safe-haven demand. Silver slumps below $91.50 after Trump decided not to impose tariffs on imports of what are now deemed to be "critical minerals”.WTI holds steady on the day, as easing tensions in Iran offset ongoing geopolitical conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. Reuters reported on Friday that Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers targeted by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

08:11 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Testing consolidation breakout near 158.00
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.18% lower to near 158.35 during the early European trading session on Friday. The pair has come under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on verbal warnings of intervention by Japan to counter one-way excessive moves.

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The pair has come under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on verbal warnings of intervention by Japan to counter one-way excessive moves. Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% -0.05% -0.16% -0.05% -0.08% -0.33% -0.13% EUR 0.03% -0.02% -0.13% -0.02% -0.04% -0.29% -0.09% GBP 0.05% 0.02% -0.11% 0.00% -0.02% -0.27% -0.07% JPY 0.16% 0.13% 0.11% 0.13% 0.08% -0.17% 0.03% CAD 0.05% 0.02% -0.01% -0.13% -0.05% -0.30% -0.09% AUD 0.08% 0.04% 0.02% -0.08% 0.05% -0.25% -0.04% NZD 0.33% 0.29% 0.27% 0.17% 0.30% 0.25% 0.20% CHF 0.13% 0.09% 0.07% -0.03% 0.09% 0.04% -0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier in the day, Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that all options, including direct currency intervention, are available for dealing with the recent weakness in the JPY.Early this week, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that Japan needs sound formulation and communication of monetary policy, after meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.However, the broader outlook of the JPY remains uncertain as investors expect Japan to follow looser fiscal policy this year to stimulate economic growth.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ticks down ahead of an extended weekend in the US, but is broadly firm as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month.USD/JPY technical analysisUSD/JPY corrects on Friday to near 158.00, testing the breakout region of the consolidation formed in the range between 154.40 and 157.90 in the last two months. Price holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 157.33, keeping the near-term uptrend intact. The 20-day EMA's steady upslope underscores sustained buying pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (bullish) after easing from an overbought reading supports trend continuation as momentum normalizes.While above the 20-day EMA, the pair would remain biased higher, with pullbacks expected to be supported at that moving average. RSI near 62 leaves room for further upside before overbought conditions re-emerge. A daily close below 157.33 would shift the bias toward a deeper retracement, whereas holding above it preserves the advance.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

07:51 USD/INR refreshes four-week high amid consistent FIIs selling in Indian equity market
The Indian Rupee (INR) revisits the four-week low against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening session on Friday. The USD/INR pair rises to near 90.70 as the Indian Rupee underperforms amid the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.

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The USD/INR pair rises to near 90.70 as the Indian Rupee underperforms amid the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian stock market.On Wednesday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded their stake worth Rs. 4,781.24 crore, according to data from NSE. The selling pressure from FIIs continues in the Indian equity market amid the absence of a trade deal announcement between the United States (US) and India. So far in January, FIIs have remained net sellers in nine out of ten trading days, and have pared their stake worth Rs. 21,706.27 crore.This week, trade talks took place between India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which were called “good” by both through their social media posts, but the sentiment of overseas investors towards the Indian stock market remains weak amid the absence of a breakthrough in trade discussions.Economists at HSBC have also pointed out that weak capital inflows into the Indian stock market are a major problem for the Indian Rupee.On the economic front, India’s retail and wholesale inflation data for December have shown growth in price pressures, but this is unlikely to deter the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) from delivering more interest rate cuts in the near term. Though the retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) has grown at a faster pace of 1.33% Year-on-Year (YoY), it is still lower than the RBI’s tolerance band of 2%-6%.Daily Digest Market Movers: US Dollar trades broadly firm as Fed officials support restrictive policy stanceThe Indian Rupee trades lower against the US Dollar, even as the latter edges down ahead of an extended weekend in the US. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, ticks lower to near 99.28. However, the DXY is still close to its six-week high of 99.50 posted the previous day.On Thursday, the US Dollar gained sharply after hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. Kansas Fed Bank President Jeffrey Schmid and Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic stressed the need to maintain a restrictive stance on interest rates, citing upside inflation risks.“We need to stay restrictive because inflation is too high," Bostic said on Thursday, adding, “I expect inflation pressures will continue through 2026 as many businesses are still incorporating tariffs into prices.”According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to hold interest rates steady in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% in the January policy meeting.Going forward, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the announcement of the new Fed Chairman by the White House. US President Trump said in December that he would announce the successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell sometime in January.The comments from Trump in his latest interviews show that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are major contenders to replace Jerome Powell.Technical Analysis: USD/INR jumps to near 90.70USD/INR rises to near 90.70. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is rising and continues to underpin the advance. Price action holds above this dynamic gauge, keeping pullbacks contained. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.76, above its midline, confirms steady bullish momentum. Initial support sits at the 50-EMA at 89.9134.As long as the pair holds above the average, topside extension remains favored, while a close beneath it would soften the tone and expose a deeper retracement. Momentum would improve if RSI extends toward the 60s, whereas a drop back to 50 would cap upside and shift the bias toward consolidation.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

07:51 USD/CHF falls toward 0.8000 despite fading safe-haven demand
USD/CHF pares its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 0.8020 during the Asian hours on Friday. The downside of the pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground amid rising cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.

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The downside of the pair could be restrained as the US Dollar (USD) may regain its ground amid rising cautious sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook.Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures continue to price in about a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and policymakers’ concerns over sticky inflation. Traders are likely to look for further direction from the US December Industrial Production data and comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials later in the day.Data from the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. The data confirmed that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is holding up despite an extended period of high borrowing costs.The safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF) may face challenges against the US Dollar amid easing concerns over Iran and Fed independence. Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump said he has no plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite reported Justice Department indictment threats and signalled a possible delay in action on Iran. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:17 AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Constructive outlook prevails, first upside barrier emerges near 106.50
The AUD/JPY cross loses ground to near 106.10 during the early Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on the intervention fears from Japanese officials.

07:00 Japan’s Katayama warns that all options open to aid Japanese Yen
Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that all options, including direct currency intervention, are available for dealing with recent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), Bloomberg reported on Friday.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:33 US Dollar Index holds near 99.50 as Jobless Claims bolster Fed pause
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is edging lower after registering modest gains in the previous session. The DXY is trading around 99.30 during the Asian hours on Friday.

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The DXY is trading around 99.30 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders are likely to look for further direction from the US December Industrial Production data and comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials later in the day.The Greenback received support after Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced the likelihood that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, Fed funds futures continue to price in about a 95% probability that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at its January 27–28 meeting.Data from the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. The data confirmed that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is holding up despite an extended period of high borrowing costs.The US Dollar may find additional support as Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and policymakers’ concerns over sticky inflation.Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump said he has no plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite reported Justice Department indictment threats and signalled a possible delay in action on Iran. Sentiment was further supported after the US and Taiwan signed a trade agreement on Thursday aimed at boosting American semiconductor production in exchange for lower tariffs. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

05:41 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Edges above 1.1600 near six-week lows
EUR/USD holds ground after three days of losses, trading around 1.1610 during the Asian hours on Friday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator, currently at 35 (neutral-bearish), shows momentum skewed to the downside.

05:29 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rally hits pause as US defers import tariffs on critical minerals
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades over 2% lower to near $90.40 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal struggles to extend its rally after posting a fresh all-time high near $93.90 on Wednesday.

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The white metal struggles to extend its rally after posting a fresh all-time high near $93.90 on Wednesday.The asset has come under pressure as the United States (US) deferred tariffs on imports of critical minerals. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump ordered Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to "enter into negotiations with trading partners to adjust the imports of critical minerals so that such imports will not threaten to impair the national security of the economy”, Reuters reported.The statement indicates that the US is insufficient to become self-reliant for its needs of critical minerals, which is used in various industries.Earlier, the Silver price rallied as traders loaded it significantly in fear of the imposition of tariffs on its imports.Technically, the scenario is favorable for the Silver price in the long run, as it highlights its necessity by the US.Additionally, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month have also weighed on the Silver price. Theoretically, a pause in the Fed’s monetary easing campaign weighs on non-yielding assets, such as Silver.Silver technical analysisXAG/USD trades lower at $90.63 as of writing. The 50-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises and sits at $90.06, supporting the short-term uptrend as the price holds above it. The 50-hour EMA's upward slope underscores an improving trend-following support. The range shift move by the 14-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) from the 60.00-80.00 zone to the 40.00-60.00 area suggests that the bullish momentum has terminated at least for now.Going forward, the all-time high of $93.90 will remain a key barrier for the Silver price. On the downside, the price could fall to the January 13 low of $83.62 if it breaks below the January 15 low of $86.19.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

05:16 Gold moves below $4,600 as safe-haven demand eases
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $4,590 on Friday. The prices of precious metals, including Gold, fall amid decreasing safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks in Iran temporarily ease.

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The prices of precious metals, including Gold, fall amid decreasing safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks in Iran temporarily ease.US President Donald Trump signaled he may delay military action after Iran pledged not to execute protesters. Market sentiment was further eased by reports that Israel and other Middle Eastern allies urged the US to hold off on any potential strike against Iran.Gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, loses its shine as Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and policymakers’ concerns over sticky inflation.Safe-haven Gold depreciates as risk sentiment improves after President Trump said he has no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite reported Justice Department indictment threats. Trump also indicated he could delay action on Iran while moving ahead with trade measures targeting critical minerals and AI chips.Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold declines as US Dollar could strengthen on Fed cautionThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is losing ground after registering modest gains in the previous session. The DXY is trading around 99.30 at the time of writing, limiting the downside of the dollar-denominated Gold.The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. The data confirmed that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is holding up despite an extended period of high borrowing costs.The US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday that Retail Sales rose more than expected to $735.9 billion in November, up 0.6%, following a 0.1% contraction in October and beating market expectations of a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hot in November, with both headline and core measures reaching 3% year-over-year (YoY).Morgan Stanley analysts delayed their expectations for rate cuts to June and September from January and April following Friday’s jobs report.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said at the Midwest Economic Forecast Forum hosted online by the Wisconsin Bankers Association on Wednesday that the overall economy seems quite resilient and that he has seen less tariff pass-through than expected. Kashkari added that inflation is still too high but is moving the right way.Fed Beige Book noted that US economic activity picked up at a "slight to modest pace" in most parts of the country since mid-November. "This marks an improvement over the last three report cycles, where a majority of Fed districts reported little change."US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in December, below market expectations, while annual core inflation held at 2.6%, matching a four-year low. The data provided a clearer sign of easing inflation after earlier releases were skewed by shutdown effects. Meanwhile, CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month in December 2025, matching market expectations and repeating the rise seen in September. The annual inflation remains at 2.7% increase as expected.Gold declines as ascending wedge indicates fading upside momentumGold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4,590 on Friday. Daily chart analysis shows the XAU/USD pair trading within a developing ascending wedge, indicating fading upside momentum and the risk of a bearish reversal if prices break below the lower trendline on strong volume.The immediate resistance appears at the record high of $4,643, reached on January 14, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending wedge around $4,660. A break above this confluence resistance zone would lead the XAU/USD pair to the $4,700 level.On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $4,549, followed by the lower ascending wedge boundary around $4,520.00. Further declines below the wedge would open the doors for the XAU/USD pair to navigate the region around the 50-day EMA at $4,313.XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:00 USD/CAD weakens below 1.3900 as crude oil rebound strengthens Canadian Dollar
The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3890 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the Greenback amid the rebound in crude oil prices. Traders will take more cues from the US December Industrial Production report and the Fedspeak later on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD softens to around 1.3890 in Friday’s early Asian session. High crude oil prices support the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar. The upbeat US economic data boost the Fed rate hold expectation. The USD/CAD pair loses ground to near 1.3890 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the Greenback amid the rebound in crude oil prices. Traders will take more cues from the US December Industrial Production report and the Fedspeak later on Friday. Reuters reported on Friday that Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers targeted by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea. Rising geopolitical risks boost crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the CAD. On the other hand, signs of improvement in the US labor market, along with the robust Retail Sales data released earlier this week, support the case that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates on hold for the next several months. This, in turn, could underpin the Greenback in the near term. Morgan Stanley analysts pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to June and September, from January and April, after the US December jobs data.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday that amid ample evidence of stability in the job market, the central bank should be focused on getting inflation down. Meanwhile, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stated that monetary policy is “in a good place” to respond to economic shifts. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

04:12 NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5750 on softer Iran rhetoric
The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5750 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as easing tensions in Iran boost the riskier currencies.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD gathers strength to near 0.5750 in Friday’s Asian session. Trump signals a wait-and-see approach after earlier threats of intervention.Traders believe the near-term RBNZ interest rate hikes will remain low.The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5750 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as easing tensions in Iran boost the riskier currencies. Later in the day, the US December Industrial Production report will be released. Also, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he had been told that killings in Iran's crackdown on protests appeared to be easing and saw no immediate plan for large-scale executions. Trump hasn’t taken any options off the table, saying that there will be “grave consequences” if killings continue. His softer tone on Iran could provide some support to the riskier currencies, such as the Kiwi, in the near term. On the other hand, rising expectations that the US central bank will hold the interest rates in the next several months might lift the Greenback and act as a headwind for the pair. The US Initial Jobless Claims and robust Retail Sales released this week prompted traders to push back bets for the next rate cut to June. While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled that its easing cycle likely ended last year after a cumulative 225 basis points (bps) of rate cuts, market pricing indicates almost no chance of a rate hike at the February policy meeting. Traders expect only a small probability of a move until at least September. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

03:58 GBP/USD remains below 1.3400 as US Dollar gains on Fed caution bets
GBP/USD edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3380 during the Asian hours on Friday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD may decline further as US Jobless Claims support expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198K, beating expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s 207K.The Pound Sterling may find support as strong UK GDP data tempers dovish Bank of England expectations.GBP/USD edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3380 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair may further lose ground as the US Dollar (USD) receives support after Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months.Data from the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. The data confirmed that layoffs remain limited and that the labor market is holding up despite an extended period of high borrowing costs.The Greenback may find additional support as Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, reflecting stronger labor market conditions and policymakers’ concerns over sticky inflation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said he has no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Jerome Powell despite reported Justice Department indictment threats. Trump also indicated he could delay action on Iran while moving ahead with trade measures targeting critical minerals and AI chips.The downside of the GBP/USD pair could be restrained as the Pound Sterling (GBP) could find support as stronger-than-expected UK monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data is likely to temper dovish expectations for the Bank of England (BoE). At its December meeting, the BoE signalled that monetary policy would follow a gradual easing path.Data from the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy returned to growth, with GDP rising 0.3%, beating forecasts of 0.1%. This followed contractions of 0.1% in September and October after flat growth in August. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:21 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0078 vs. 7.0064 previous
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.0078 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0064 and 6.9722 Reuters estimate.

03:14 AUD/USD holds ground near 0.6700 due to cautious RBA tone
AUD/USD moves little after two days of gains, hovering around 0.6700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support amid cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD steadies as the Australian dollar finds support amid cautious sentiment over the RBA’s policy outlook.Markets price a 27% chance of an RBA rate hike in February, rising to 76% by May.Initial Jobless Claims fell to 198K, beating expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s 207K.AUD/USD moves little after two days of gains, hovering around 0.6700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as the Australian Dollar (AUD) receives support amid cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook.Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations remained elevated at 4.6% in January, indicating that households continue to anticipate elevated price pressures. Markets currently price a 27% probability of a quarter-point rate hike by the Reserve Bank in February, increasing to 76% by May.RBA policymakers acknowledged that inflation has eased markedly from its 2022 peak, although recent data point to renewed momentum. Headline inflation slowed to 3.4% YoY in November, the lowest since August, but it remains above the RBA’s 2–3% target range.The AUD/USD pair holds ground as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates on hold for the coming months. Fed funds futures have pushed expectations for the next rate cut back to June, as improving labour market conditions and policymakers’ concerns about sticky inflation persist.Data from the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell to 198K in the week ended January 10, below market expectations of 215K and down from the prior week’s revised 207K. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:09 WTI rebounds above $59.00 as traders assess situation in Iran
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.10 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price recovers some lost ground, snapping the two-day losing streak, as traders assess the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

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Traders continue to assess the situation in Iran after Trump signaled he might not pursue military action against Tehran. Supply glut concerns might cap the upside for the WTI. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.10 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price recovers some lost ground, snapping the two-day losing streak, as traders assess the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump said early Thursday that Iran has “no plan for executions,” amid fears for the fate of a detained anti-government protester. Nonetheless, Trump hasn’t taken any options off the table, saying that there will be “grave consequences” if killings continue. Reuters reported late Thursday that the US military is moving a carrier strike group to the Middle East region amid the ongoing tension. Traders will closely monitor the latest geopolitical developments surrounding the Iranian civil unrest. Any signs of rising tensions in Iran could boost the WTI price, as Iran is the third-largest crude oil producer within OPEC. Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO of Sky Links Capital Group, said that geopolitical risk has not disappeared despite a softer tone from Trump. “Tensions across major producing regions remain elevated, and developments in Eastern Europe and Latin America continue to inject uncertainty into energy supply chains,” said Takieddine. The potential upside for the WTI price might be limited amid supply glut concerns. On Wednesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported larger-than-expected builds in crude oil, raising worries about weak demand and oversupply.According to the EIA weekly report, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending January 14 rose by 3.391 million barrels, compared to a fall of 3.831 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decline by 2.2 million barrels. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

02:15 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slumps to near $4,600 as Trump softens tone on Iran
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,605 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges lower as the US Initial Jobless Claims data boost the ‌US Dollar. The US December Industrial Production report will be published later on Friday.

01:53 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥124.9B to ¥1B in January 9
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥124.9B to ¥1B in January 9

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥1141.4B (January 9) vs ¥124.9B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥1141.4B (January 9) vs ¥124.9B

01:15 USD/JPY gains above 158.50 as US Jobless Claims support US Dollar
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains near 158.65 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as US Initial Jobless Claims fall. The US December Industrial Production report is due later on Friday.

01:03 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Slides from yearly highs, towards 212.00
The British Pound drops versus the Japanese Yen as the Friday’s Asian session begins, courtesy of Japanese authorities’ verbal intervention, which boosted the Asian currency. The GBP/JPY trades at 212.20 after falling from yearly highs near 214.30.

00:31 EUR/USD tumbles towards 1.1600 as strong US data supercharges Dollar
EUR/USD fell to a new yearly low beneath 1.1600 on Thursday, courtesy of solid economic data in the US and broad US Dollar strength. Traders’ appetite improved due to Trump moderating his rhetoric on Iran, while data in the Eurozone, failed to underpin the shared currency.

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Traders’ appetite improved due to Trump moderating his rhetoric on Iran, while data in the Eurozone, failed to underpin the shared currency. The pair trades at 1.1605, down 0.35%.US Dollar advances on solid data, traders reducing Fed cut bets Wall Street ended the session with gains, a reflection of risk appetite. Upbeat earnings of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) pushed US equity indices higher, while the Dollar was boosted by a solid jobs report.The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits dipped below estimates and the previous week report. That report and speeches by Federal Reserve officials pushed investors to trim their best of further Fed easing in 2026.Monay markets had priced 46 basis points of easing, down from 52 during Thursday’s open, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probability tool.Moreover, traders digested speeches by Regional Fed Presidents Schmid, Daly, Paulson, Barkin, Bostic and the Fed Governor Michael Barr.In Europe, the docket was scarce with the release of the Eurozone’s Industrial Production report in November and the release of inflation data in France and Spain, both readings for December. Related news Fed’s Schmid: Inflation is too hot EUR/USD Price Forecast: The 200-day SMA looms closer Eurozone industrial production on the rise What’s in the calendar for January 16?The Eurozone economic schedule will feature inflation in Germany and Italy. In the US, investors will digest Industrial Production figures for December, along with the continuation of the Fed parade.Daily digest market movers: Euro tumbles at the mercy of the DollarUS Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 10 fell to 198K from 207K, comfortably below forecasts of 215K, underscoring continued resilience in the labor market. Manufacturing indicators also improved. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index rebounded in January, rising from -3.7 to 7.7; while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey far exceeded expectations, jumping to 12.6 versus estimates of -2, signaling a broad-based pickup in regional factory activity.The Greenback reacted positively, rallying to a new yearly high, with the US Dollar Index, which tracks the buck’s value versus six currencies, is up 0.30% at 99.35.Federal Reserve officials delivered a range of views on the policy outlook. Jeffrey Schmid said monetary policy is not particularly restrictive, cautioning that there is no room for complacent inflation. Mary Daly struck a more balanced tone, saying she expects solid economic growth and that policy is well positioned.Meanwhile, Thomas Barkin noted that inflation remains elevated, though he sees signs of stabilization in the labor market. Earlier, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said growth is likely to run above 2% but warned that persistent inflation pressures argue for a restrictive stance. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee added that the latest jobless claims data was unsurprising, reiterating that the Fed’s core priority is returning inflation to the 2% target.Industrial Production in the EZ exceeded forecasts in November, rising 0.7% MoM, defying estimates for a slowdown to 0.5%. On an annual basis, output growth accelerated to 2.5%, up from 2.0% in October and above the 2.0% consensus estimate. Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.21% 0.14% 0.29% -0.16% -0.25% -0.24% 0.32% EUR -0.21% -0.07% 0.15% -0.36% -0.46% -0.38% 0.12% GBP -0.14% 0.07% 0.19% -0.30% -0.40% -0.35% 0.18% JPY -0.29% -0.15% -0.19% -0.48% -0.56% -0.55% -0.01% CAD 0.16% 0.36% 0.30% 0.48% -0.11% -0.07% 0.48% AUD 0.25% 0.46% 0.40% 0.56% 0.11% 0.03% 0.55% NZD 0.24% 0.38% 0.35% 0.55% 0.07% -0.03% 0.53% CHF -0.32% -0.12% -0.18% 0.00% -0.48% -0.55% -0.53% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Technical outlook: EUR/USD slumps towards 1.1600 as it turns bearishEUR/USD consolidates, yet it briefly cleared 1.1600 to hit a year to date (YTD) low of 1.1593, before recovering the 1.1600 figure. Momentum continues to favor sellers as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stays below its neutral 50 level, signaling that bears retain the upper hand.For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear 1.1600, which would bring the 200-day SMA at 1.1582 into play. A clear break beneath that level would expose 1.1500, ahead of a deeper move toward the August 1 low at 1.1391.On the upside, a decisive break above 1.1700 would open the way toward the 1.1750 mark. A sustained move beyond that zone would shift focus to the 1.1800 handle.EUR/USD Daily Chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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Forex News Timeline

15:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $16.49B in November from previous $-11.58B Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities increased to $16.49B in November from previous $-11.58B

15:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities: $16.33B (November) vs previous $46.62B Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities: $16.33B (November) vs previous $46.62B

15:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above expectations (260K) in December: Actual (282.4K) Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) above expectations (260K) in December: Actual (282.4K)

15:00 Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $752.5B vs previous $763.9B Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $752.5B vs previous $763.9B

14:55 Trump signals desire for US control of Greenland – Standard Chartered European leaders are taking Trump’s Greenland threats seriously but are uncertain on the ultimate goal. They could offer ‘carrots’ in the form of a greater US military and commercial presence on Greenland.

14:49 USD: Dollar edges higher on strong US data and Fed outlook – BBH The US Dollar (USD) is drifting higher this week, supported by firm economic data and a slightly higher Federal Reserve (Fed) terminal rate, with Dollar Index (DXY) gradually approaching the 100 level, BBH FX analysts report.

14:45 GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Pound tests support at 212.0 on intervention threats GBP/JPY hits weekly lows below 212.00 after rejection at 213.30 on Thursday.

14:14 Gold steadies after record high amid easing Iran tensions, firm US data Gold (XAU/USD) remains rangebound on Friday, after surging to a fresh all-time high near $4,643 earlier this week, driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.

14:00 USD pulls back after testing highest level since December – BBH US Dollar (USD) retreated slightly after probing yesterday its highest level since December 2, BBH FX analysts report.

13:40 USD/JPY outlook clouded ahead of Japan snap election – ING USD/JPY faces a volatile month as Japan prepares for a snap election on 8 February, with outcomes potentially swaying the yen depending on LDP gains and policy expectations, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

13:37 USD/JPY: Rally has scope to extend – UOB Group Strong US Dollar (USD) rally has scope to extend, potentially breaking above 160.00, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

13:30 India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.8B to $687.19B in January 5 India FX Reserves, USD climbed from previous $686.8B to $687.19B in January 5

13:30 European Gas surges above €33/MWh on cold snap forecast – ING European Gas prices jumped more than 4.2%, with TTF climbing back above €33/MWh, driven by forecasts for another cold snap across the continent, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

13:27 NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805 – UOB Group For the time being, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5720 and 0.5805, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

13:13 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hesitates at $4,600 with Fed easing hopes fading Gold treads water around $4.600 after failure to break record highs, at $4,640

12:59 EUR/GBP edges lower as German inflation meets ECB target, UK data awaited EUR/GBP trades lower around 0.8660 on Friday at the time of writing, down 0.15% on the day. In the Eurozone, data published on Friday confirm a clear easing in inflationary pressures in Germany.

12:17 AUD/USD: Major resistance at 0.6745 is not expected to come into view – UOB Group Bias for Australian Dollar (AUD) has shifted to the upside, but the major resistance at 0.6745 is not expected to come into view.

12:10 Silver rebounds after sharp profit-taking – OCBC Silver recovered overnight after a sharp pullback driven by profit-taking following a rapid year-to-date surge of more than 25%. Silver last seen at 91.29 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note.

11:58 USD/MXN breaks lower as 50-DMA caps rebound – Société Générale USD/MXN has broken below its recent consolidation after failing to clear the 50-day moving average, bringing the July 2024 low near 17.60 into focus.

11:35 AUD/USD steadies around 0.6700 with the US Dollar trimming gains The Aussie Dollar appreciates against its US counterpart for the second consecutive day on Friday, returning to levels above 0.6700 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the 0.6665 area.

11:34 EUR/USD pulls back to 200-DMA – Société Générale EUR/USD has retreated steadily after failing to break above the top of its multi-month range, with the pair now testing the 200-DMA. 1.

11:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $91.50 per troy ounce, down 0.51% from the $91.97 it cost on Thursday.

11:01 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in December Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in December

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in December

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in December Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with expectations (0.2%) in December

10:57 EUR/USD languishes near lows with US Dollar buoyed by economic data EUR/USD is trading right above 1.1600 at the time of writing on Friday, practically flat on the daily chart and on track to complete a three-week lowing streak.

09:54 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $91.00 due to risk-on sentiment Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $91.00 during the European hours on Friday.

09:38 Pound Sterling remains fragile against US Dollar The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades with caution near its four-week low around 1.3360 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday.

09:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in December Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in December

09:01 Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 1.8% in December Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 1.8% in December

09:01 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in December Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) meets forecasts (2%) in December

09:01 Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in December Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in December

08:27 Forex Today: US Dollar softens as risk mood improves Here is what you need to know on Friday, January 16:

07:00 Japan’s Katayama warns that all options open to aid Japanese Yen Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that all options, including direct currency intervention, are available for dealing with recent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY), Bloomberg reported on Friday.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

05:16 Gold moves below $4,600 as safe-haven demand eases Gold (XAU/USD) extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $4,590 on Friday. The prices of precious metals, including Gold, fall amid decreasing safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks in Iran temporarily ease.

04:12 NZD/USD gains ground to near 0.5750 on softer Iran rhetoric The NZD/USD pair attracts some buyers to around 0.5750 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as easing tensions in Iran boost the riskier currencies.

03:58 GBP/USD remains below 1.3400 as US Dollar gains on Fed caution bets GBP/USD edges higher after registering modest losses in the previous session, trading around 1.3380 during the Asian hours on Friday.

03:21 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0078 vs. 7.0064 previous The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 7.0078 compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0064 and 6.9722 Reuters estimate.

01:53 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥124.9B to ¥1B in January 9 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥124.9B to ¥1B in January 9

01:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥1141.4B (January 9) vs ¥124.9B Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks: ¥1141.4B (January 9) vs ¥124.9B

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