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Forex News Timeline

Thursday, June 8, 2023

The Eurozone economy contracted in the first quarter of 2023, the final estimate published by Eurostat confirmed on Thursday. more to come ...

The Eurozone economy unexpectedly contracted 0.1% in the first quarter.                EUR/USD holds gains near 1.0730 despite the downbeat Eurozone GDP data. The Eurozone economy contracted in the first quarter of 2023, the final estimate published by Eurostat confirmed on Thursday. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the old continent shrank 0.1% in the first three months of this year compared with the previous quarter. The preliminary figure showed a 0.1% growth during the reported period. The market estimated a 0% clip. On an annual basis, the bloc’s GDP grew 1.0%, down from the 1.3% expansion initially estimated and missing the market expectation of a 1.2% increase. Eurozone’s Final Employment Change came in at 0.6% and 1.6% on a monthly and yearly basis respectively. Market reaction The Euro is unperturbed by the discouraging Eurozone data, with EUR/USD adding 0.28% on the day near 1.0730.

Economists at ING discuss USD outlook. Dollar will embark on a cyclical bear trend in 2H23 For the near term, it looks like the Dollar can hold the ma

Economists at ING discuss USD outlook. Dollar will embark on a cyclical bear trend in 2H23 For the near term, it looks like the Dollar can hold the majority of its recent gains into next Wednesday's FOMC meeting – though the release of the US May CPI next Tuesday will be a big market driver too.  Our bigger picture call remains that the Dollar will embark on a cyclical bear trend in 2H23 – probably starting in 3Q – though the risk is that this gets delayed.

European Monetary Union Employment Change (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.6%) in 1Q

European Monetary Union Employment Change (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in 1Q: Actual (1.6%)

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) below expectations (1.2%) in 1Q: Actual (1%)

European Monetary Union Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at -0.1% below forecasts (0%) in 1Q

The NZD/USD pair stages a solid bounce from the 0.6030-0.6025 region, or a one-week low touched this Thursday and builds on its momentum through the e

NZD/USD gains strong positive traction on Thursday and reverses the overnight losses.The emergence of fresh USD selling is seen as a key factor lending support to the major.The Fed rate hike uncertainty, the cautious mood could limit USD losses and cap the pair.The NZD/USD pair stages a solid bounce from the 0.6030-0.6025 region, or a one-week low touched this Thursday and builds on its momentum through the early part of the European session. Spot prices climb to the 0.6075-0.6080 area in the last hour and have now reversed the previous day's downfall. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on Wednesday's goodish rebound from the weekly low and meets with a fresh supply, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the NZD/USD pair higher. That said, any meaningful appreciating move still seems elusive as investors remain uncertain about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path. Last week's dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials reaffirmed market expectations for an imminent pause in the US central bank's policy tightening cycle. In fact, the current market pricing indicates a greater chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting on June 13-14. That said, the recent inflation and labor market data from the United States (US) kept alive hopes for a 25 bps lift-off next week. Furthermore, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) this week suggest that the fight against inflation is not over yet, supporting prospects for further tightening by the Fed. The market expectations remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with the prevalent cautious mood, should limit losses for the safe-haven buck and cap gains for the perceived riskier Kiwi. The market sentiment remains fragile amid growing worries about a global economic slowdown, particularly in China. The concerns resurfaced after data released on Wednesday showed that China's trade surplus sank to a 13-month low in May, led by a slump in exports. The data, meanwhile, pointed to weak overseas demand for Chinese goods and poses additional challenges for the world's second-largest economy. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) explicit signal that it was done with its most aggressive hiking cycle since 1999 might continue to undermine the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the downside, warranting some caution for bullish traders. Technical levels to watch  

Economists at Morgan Stanley discuss the EUR outlook. EUR/CHF to marginally increase toward parity We expect EUR/USD to fall to 1.02 by the end of the

Economists at Morgan Stanley discuss the EUR outlook. EUR/CHF to marginally increase toward parity We expect EUR/USD to fall to 1.02 by the end of the year, driven by defensive investor bias, positive carry, and slow local growth. This trend is somewhat mitigated by the ongoing shift in capital flows. However, we expect the Euro to outperform its regional peers. We maintain a long-term bullish bias for EUR/GBP, forecasting it to rise above 0.90 over the next 12 months as capital repatriation into Europe significantly contrasts with the lukewarm investor demand for UK investments. We expect EUR/CHF to marginally increase toward parity, with the Euro's positivity partly countered by the defensive allure of the Swiss Franc.  

The EUR/JPY pair is continuously trading sideways below the psychological resistance of 150.00 in the European session. The cross is trading non-direc

EUR/JPY is oscillating in a narrow range below 150.00 as ECB-BoJ policy comes under picture.The BoJ is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged till inflation targets don’t get achieved.ECB Lagarde is expected to raise interest rates further as inflation in Eurozone is extremely stubbornThe EUR/JPY pair is continuously trading sideways below the psychological resistance of 150.00 in the European session. The cross is trading non-directionally as investors are preparing for the interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Investors are highly confident that ECB President Christine Lagarde will raise interest rates further as inflation in Eurozone is extremely stubborn. While the BoJ is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged till inflation targets don’t get achieved. EUR/JPY is demonstrating a back-and-forth action in a range of 148.58-150.21 for the past six trading sessions. This indicates a sheer drop in volatility, which will be followed by wider ticks and heavy volume after the explosion. Potential resistance is plotted from May 02 high at 151.62. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.55 has turned straight, portraying a non-directional performance. Adding to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00, indicating that investors are awaiting a fresh trigger. Bullish bets will emerge post a break above June 02 high at 150.12, which will drive the cross toward May 28 high at 151.07 followed by May 02 high at 151.62. On the flip side, a breakdown below May 31 low at 148.59 will drag the asset toward April 27 high around 148.00. Slippage below the latter would drag the asset toward May 04 low at 147.13. EUR/JPY four-hour chart  

The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with a 25 bps rate hike. Economists at ING analyze USD/CAD outlook following the decision. BoC tightening i

The Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets with a 25 bps rate hike. Economists at ING analyze USD/CAD outlook following the decision. BoC tightening is back The BoC has resumed interest rate increases after a five-month hiatus. Another hike looks likely in July, but we are wary about pushing for more aggressive action. The BoC hike sent USD/CAD lower and the pair is now aiming at testing the November 2022 lows at 1.32/1.33. Below that, we’d be looking at 1.30 as the next key resistance level for the pair. Our pre-BoC forecast for USD/CAD had 1.30 as an end-3Q target. We now think the chances of 1.30 being hit earlier this summer are quite elevated.  Later in the year, a negative re-rating in US growth expectations and prospective Fed cuts late in 2023 can impact CAD negatively and we expect it to lag other procyclicals later in the year. But fresh BoC tightening means that USD/CAD may trade closer to 1.25 than 1.30 by year-end.  

The single currency maintains the erratic performance in place so far this week and now motivates EUR/USD to trade with mild gains around the 1.0700 r

EUR/USD extends the choppiness around 1.0700 on Thursday.German 10-year bund yields climb further and target 2.50%.EMU Flash Q1 GDP Growth Rate, US weekly Claims next of note.The single currency maintains the erratic performance in place so far this week and now motivates EUR/USD to trade with mild gains around the 1.0700 region on Thursday. EUR/USD faces extra consolidation near term EUR/USD adds to Wednesday’s small advance and looks to reclaim the area beyond 1.0700 the figure on a more sustainable fashion against the backdrop of a broad-based consolidative mood in the global markets. The absence of strong drivers for the pair’s price action continues to underpin the ongoing directionless pattern, although a more cautious trade is expected to emerge in light of the release of crucial US inflation figures and the FOMC event, both due next week. Around the ECB, there are no changes to the steady bets of a quarter-point rate raise at the bank’s gathering next week. In the domestic calendar, another revision of the EMU Q1 GDP figures will be the only scheduled release, while weekly Initial Claims and Wholesale Inventories grab all the attention across the ocean. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD flirts with the key 1.0700 area amidst the generalized lack of clear direction in the global markets. In the meantime, the pair’s price action is expected to closely mirror the behaviour of the US Dollar and will likely be impacted by any differences in approach between the Fed and the ECB with regards to their plans for adjusting interest rates. Moving forward, hawkish ECB speak continues to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears to be in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region.Key events in the euro area this week: EMU Flash GDP Growth Rate (Thursday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle in June and July (and September?). Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, the pair is up 0.13% at 1.0711 and the surpass of 1.0779 (weekly high June 2) would target 1.0807 (100-day SMA) en route to 1.0879 (55-day SMA). On the downside, initial support lines up at 1.0635 (monthly low May 31) seconded by 1.0516 (low March 15) and finally 1.0481 (2023 low January 6).

The AUD/JPY pair showed a V-shape recovery from the critical support of 93.00 in the London session. The risk barometer has stretched its V-shape reco

AUD/JPY has climbed to near 93.40 as the RBA is expected to raise interest rates further.Higher interest rates from the RBA are impacting the economic prospects of Australia.The BoJ is consistently making efforts for pushing wages and demand higher through sheer monetary stimulus.The AUD/JPY pair showed a V-shape recovery from the critical support of 93.00 in the London session. The risk barometer has stretched its V-shape recovery to near 93.40 as the street is hoping that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to raise interest rates further. Australian inflation has shown persistence as the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator has jumped to 6.8% from the former release of 6.4%, which is sufficient to support more interest rate hikes from the RBA. In June’s monetary policy meeting, RBA Governor Philip Lowe stated that more interest rate hikes are appropriate to bring down stubborn inflation. The commentary came after RBA Lowe announced a 25 basis point rate hike surprisingly to 4.10% A poll from Reuters showed that the RBA would raise its Official Cash Rate (OCR) further by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.35%. Meanwhile, higher interest rates from the RBA are impacting the economic prospects of Australia. Australian GDP has dropped in the first quarter of CY2023 and their surplus Trade Balance has slipped due to weak global demand. In the Asian region, a few Chinese biggest banks lowered rates on a range of deposit products, responding to the government’s call for help in boosting growth in the world’s second-largest economy. This might accelerate recovery in the Chinese economy and support its vulnerable real estate. It is worth noting that Australia is the leading trading partner of China and monetary stimulus in China would support the Australian Dollar. In Japan, recovery could be higher led by the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) efforts of pushing wages and demand higher through sheer monetary stimulus. Economists at Societe Generale cited the most resilient major economy maybe Japan, and that should provide some support for the yen as the market waits for next week’s BoJ meeting.  

The EUR/CAD cross prolongs its recent downtrend witnessed over the past week or so and remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day

EUR/CAD drifts lower for the third successive day and drops to a nearly three-month low.The BoC’s surprise rate hike, an uptick in Oil prices underpin the Loonie and exert pressure.Bets for further policy tightening by the ECB could limit losses amid a slightly oversold RSI.The EUR/CAD cross prolongs its recent downtrend witnessed over the past week or so and remains under some selling pressure for the third straight day on Thursday - also marking the sixth day of a negative move in the previous seven. The cross maintains its offered tone through the early European session and drops to the 1.4285-1.4280 region, its lowest level since February 13 in the last hour. Against the backdrop of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) surprise 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday, a modest uptick in Crude Oil prices is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie and exerting some pressure on the EUR/CAD cross. It is worth recalling that the Canadian central bank defied market expectations by restarting its policy tightening and hiking its overnight rate to 4.75%, or a 22-year high. In the accompanying policy statement, the BoC noted that concerns have increased that CPI could get stuck materially above the 2% target. The markets were quick to price in yet another increase next month to ratchet down an overheating economy and stubbornly high inflation. The hawkish outlook contributes to the Canadian Dollar's (CAD) relative outperformance and weighs on the EUR/CAD cross. The shared currency (Euro), on the other hand, draws some support from a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick and rising bets for further policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). In fact, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated earlier this week that additional interest rate rises were likely as, so far, there was no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked. This comes on the back of the recent hawkish comments by several ECB officials and reaffirms expectations that the central bank is not done raising rates despite a fall in consumer inflation. It is worth recalling that the headline Eurozone CPI decelerated more than anticipated to the 6.1% YoY rate in May from 7.0% previous. Moreover, Core CPI slowed from 5.6% YoY to 5.3% last month. The aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop, along with the fact that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into the oversold territory, warrant some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for a further depreciating move for the EUR/CAD cross. Technical levels to watch  

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 8: The market action remains choppy in the second half of the week and major currency pairs stay conti

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 8: The market action remains choppy in the second half of the week and major currency pairs stay continue to fluctuate in their weekly ranges. Eurostat will release the final revision for the first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and the weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be featured in the US economic docket on Thursday. After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Bank of Canada (BoC) became the second major central bank this week to surprise markets with a rate hike. The BoC raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% after having held it unchanged in the previous two meetings. In its policy statement, the BoC said that concerns have increased that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target. Following this development, USD/CAD fell to its weakest level in a month near 1.3320 before stabilizing near 1.3350 early Thursday. The BoC's unexpected hike triggered a rally in global bond yields. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose nearly 4% and settled at around 3.8%. Meanwhile, the CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability of one more Fed rate hike next week climbed above 30% from 20% earlier in the week. Early Thursday, US stock index futures trade flat and the US Dollar Index stays calm near 104.00.EUR/USD extended its sideways grind and closed virtually unchanged on Wednesday. The pair stays rengebound at around 1.0700 in the European morning on Thursday.GBP/USD registered small gains on Wednesday and was last seen trading a few pips above 1.2450. USD/JPY closed in positive territory on Wednesday but lost its bullish momentum after meeting resistance near 140.00. The data from Japan showed that the real Gross Domestic Product grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the first quarter, surpassing the initial estimate of 1.6%. Pressured by surging bond yields, Gold price turned south and broke below $1,950 on Wednesday. Early Thursday, XAU/USD consolidates its losses but stays below $1,950.Bitcoin failed to build on Tuesday's gains and lost more than 3% on Wednesday. In the European session, BTC/USD trades in a tight channel near $26,500. Ethereum reversed its direction and declined toward $1,800 after having met resistance at $1,900 mid-week.

USD/JPY is now forecast to keep the 138.50-141.00 range for the time being, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser

USD/JPY is now forecast to keep the 138.50-141.00 range for the time being, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD dropped briefly to 139.01 and then rebounded sharply to 140.24 before ending the day at 140.11. The rebound has scope to extend above 140.40. The major resistance at 141.00 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 139.55, followed by 139.20.” Next 1-3 weeks: “USD traded mostly sideways for the past several days. The price actions are likely part of range-trading phase. For the time being, USD is likely to trade between 138.50 and 141.00. Looking ahead, USD has to break clearly above 141.00 before a sustained rise is likely.”

EUR/NOK is up by around 12% YTD and 17% YoY. Economists at ING discuss Krone’s outlook. Short-term woes We are not ready to call for a reversal of the

EUR/NOK is up by around 12% YTD and 17% YoY. Economists at ING discuss Krone’s outlook. Short-term woes We are not ready to call for a reversal of the NOK bearish trend in the near term.  External factors need to favour a NOK recovery before any domestic factors can seriously become part of the equation. A re-softening of the Dollar, and prevalence of the European growth story over the US one, paired with pre-emptive easing by the Fed in late 2023 could combine to generate a more benign environment for the Krone in the second half of the year.  

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped by around 17.8K contracts on Wednesday after two con

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped by around 17.8K contracts on Wednesday after two consecutive daily builds. Volume, instead, increased for the third straight day, now by around 112.7K contracts. Natural Gas remains supported around $2.00 Prices of the natural gas rose for the fourth session in a row on Wednesday. The uptick, however, came on the back of declining open interest and this removes strength from the continuation of the rebound in the very near term. In the meantime, the lower end of the current multi-week consolidation emerges at the key $2.00 mark per MMBtu.

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang, NZD/USD faces extra range bound trade within 0.5985-0.6140

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang, NZD/USD faces extra range bound trade within 0.5985-0.6140 in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “NZD fell by 0.70% yesterday (NY close of 0.6037). Downward momentum has improved, albeit not much. Today, NZD could edge lower to 0.6020 before the risk of a rebound increases. Resistance is at 0.6065, followed by 0.6085.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The price actions since last week’s low near 0.5985 is likely part of a consolidation phase. For now, NZD is likely to trade sideways between 0.5985 and 0.6140.”

The USD/JPY pair has shown some recovery after dropping to near 139.66 in the early London session. The asset is expected to recapture the crucial res

USD/JPY is looking to recapture 140.00 as investors eye more interest rate hikes from the Fed.Former Fed policymaker Lacker cited interest rates should rise to 6% to arrest sticky inflation.BoJ watchers are seeing no policy adjustments in June as BoJ Ueda is consistently supporting monetary stimulus.The USD/JPY pair has shown some recovery after dropping to near 139.66 in the early London session. The asset is expected to recapture the crucial resistance of 140.00 as investors are hoping that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates further to bring down sticky United States inflation. S&P500 futures have carry-forwarded losses to Europe generated in the Asian session, indicating cautious market sentiment. US economic prospects are under threat as the street is anticipating that more interest rate hikes are required to keep building pressure on US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker cited that current interest rates at 5.0-5.25% should rise to 6% in order to bring down sticky inflation. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has found an intermediate support around 104.00. It is likely that the USD Index would fall into a volatile contraction phase due to a light economic calendar. It seems that investors are preparing for the next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Meanwhile, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, said the US is seeing stubbornly high inflation along with elevated real interest rates, as reported by Bloomberg. He further added “We are at the beginning of a late, big-cycle debt crisis when you are producing too much debt and have a shortage of buyers,” The Japanese Yen has failed to fetch strength despite discussions over an exit from the ultra-dovish interest rate policy by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. About BoJ’s interest rate guidance, Bloomberg reported that BoJ watchers are seeing no policy adjustments in June as BoJ Ueda is consistently supporting the need for monetary stimulus to keep inflation steadily above 2%.  

The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish recovery of over 175 pips from the 172.65 area, or a one-and-half-week low and

GBP/JPY oscillates in a narrow trading band through the early European session on Thursday.Intervention fears, the cautious mood benefit the safe-haven JPY and cap gains for the cross.Bets for more rate hikes by the BoE underpin the British Pound and help limit the downside.The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish recovery of over 175 pips from the 172.65 area, or a one-and-half-week low and edges lower on Thursday. Spot prices remain on the defensive heading into the European session and currently hover near the lower end of the narrow intraday trading band, just above the 174.00 mark. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to draw some support from the prospects for more sizeable interventions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to support the domestic currency. Apart from this, the prevalent cautious mood benefits the JPY's relative safe-haven status and acts as a headwind for the GBP/JPY cross. The market sentiment remains fragile amid worries about a global economic slowdown, particularly in China. In fact, data released on Wednesday showed that China's trade surplus sank to a 13-month low in May, led by a slump in exports. This, in turn, indicates weak overseas demand for Chinese goods and poses additional challenges for the world's second-largest economy. Adding to this, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts that the global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand. OECD now expects the global economy to expand by 2.7% this year. Excluding the pandemic-hit year of 2020, this would still be the lowest annual rate of growth since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The downside for the GBP/JPY cross, however, remains cushioned on the back of expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will be far more aggressive in policy tightening to contain stubbornly high inflation, which underpins the British Pound. In fact, investors now anticipate the UK central bank to raise interest rates again from 4.5% to 4.75% on June 22  and see a roughly 60% chance that rate will peak at 5.5% later this year. The bets were lifted by the official data released last week, which showed that the headline UK CPI fell less than expected in April and a closely watched measure of core price surged to a 31-year high. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY cross is to the upside and supports prospects for an extension of a multi-week-old upward trajectory. Bullish traders, however, might wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 174.65-174.7 area, or the monthly peak before placing fresh bets. Technical levels to watch  

USD/MXN takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 17.34 during the early hours of Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN)

USD/MXN stays pressured for the fourth consecutive day at multi-day low.Bearish MACD signals favor clear downside break of three-week-old horizontal support to keep sellers hopeful.Three-month-old descending support line can prod Mexican Peso buyers amid adverse RSI conditions.USD/MXN takes offers to refresh the intraday low near 17.34 during the early hours of Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair fades late Wednesday’s corrective bounce off the lowest levels since May 2016 while printing a four-day losing streak. It’s worth noting that the Bank of Mexico is up for releasing the 12-month Inflation, Core Inflation and Headline Inflation for May, which in turn can prod the USD/MXN bears on matching downbeat forecasts. That said, the pair sellers take clues from Tuesday’s downside break of three-week-old horizontal support, now resistance around 17.42. Also motivating the USD/MXN sellers are the bearish MACD signals. However, a downward-sloping support line from early March, near 17.25 by the press time, challenges the pair bears amid the oversold RSI (14) line. Hence, the Mexican Peso buyers can keep the reins but their dominance appear to have limited reach, till 17.25. Should the quote break the 17.25 support, the May 2016 low of near 17.05 and the 17.00 psychological magnet will lure the USD/MXN bears. Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line stretched from mid-May, close to 17.42, to convince intraday buyers. Even so, a convergence of the 10-DMA and a fortnight-long falling trend line, close to 17.52 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the Mexican Peso sellers to retake control. USD/MXN: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

Gold price (XAU/USD) has witnessed a steep fall after failing to kiss the crucial resistance of $1,950.00 in the European session. The precious metal

Gold price has dropped firmly after failing to tap the $1,950.00 resistance amid a recovery in hawkish Fed bets.S&P500 futures have recovered some of their losses added in Asia, however, the overall market mood is still cautious.US Yellen believes that inflation can be arrested while maintaining an upbeat labor market.Gold price (XAU/USD) has witnessed a steep fall after failing to kiss the crucial resistance of $1,950.00 in the European session. The precious metal has attracted significant offers as the corrective move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems concluded due to an improvement in odds for the continuation of the rate-hiking spell by the Federal Reserve (Fed). S&P500 futures have recovered some of their losses added in Asia, however, the overall market mood is still cautious as investors are worried that more interest rate hikes by the Fed would worsen the economic outlook. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Wednesday that robust consumer spending has kept the United States economy resilient. She feels that inflation can be arrested while maintaining an upbeat labor market, with unemployment in the 4% range, up slightly from the 3.7% reading in May, as reported by Reuters. The odds for one more interest rate hike from the Fed rebounded after former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker cited current interest rates at 5.0-5.25% should rise to 6% in order to bring down sticky inflation. The USD Index is expected to remain choppy as the economic calendar has nothing much to offer this week. Economists at MUFG believe that consolidation at these stronger US Dollar levels seems most likely given the probable declining appetite for position-taking ahead of a key week next week with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the FOMC and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings. Gold technical analysis Gold price has formed a textbook-traced Darvas Box chart pattern on a four-hour scale, which indicates a volatility contraction, followed by a one-way move. The precious metal is consolidating in a range of $1,932-1,985 for the past three weeks. Broadly, horizontal support is plotted from March 15 high at $1,937.39. The magical 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,975.47 is acting as a strong barrier for the Gold bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is hovering near 40.00 and a break below the same will trigger the bearish momentum. Gold four-hour chart  

Silver regains positive traction on Thursday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from over a three-week high - levels just above the $24.0

Silver builds on its steady intraday ascent heading into the European session on Thursday.The intraday technical setup supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.A convincing break below the 200-period SMA on H4 is needed to negate the positive bias.Silver regains positive traction on Thursday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from over a three-week high - levels just above the $24.00 round-figure mark. The white metal builds on its steady intraday ascent heading into the European session and hits a fresh daily top, around the $23.65 region in the last hour. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD, so far, has shown resilience below the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently pegged near the $23.45 region and should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders. A convincing break and acceptance below should pave the way for a slide towards testing the $23.00 round figure. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the next relevant support near the $22.70-$22.65 region, or over a two-month low touched in May. Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts have again started gaining positive traction and support prospects for further intraday gains, though neutral technical indicators on the daily chart might cap any meaningful upside. Hence, any subsequent move up might continue to face stiff resistance and remain capped near the $24.00 mark. That said, a sustained strength beyond might lift the XAG/USD further beyond the $24.25-$24.30 zone and allow bulls to reclaim the $25.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the recent pullback from over a one-year high touched in May has run its course and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $24.35-$24.40 region, above which the XAG/USD is likely to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the $26.00 round figure. Silver 1-hour chart Key levels to watch  

EUR/GBP snaps two-day losing streak as buyers prod the 0.8600 round figure, mildly bid around 0.8605 heading into Thursday’s European session. In doin

EUR/GBP grinds near intraday high during the first positive day in three.Markets pare fears of recession in the bloc amid mixed sentiment, political pessimism in the UK also propel EUR/GBP.Mixed signals about BoE rate hike contrast with ECB concerns to favor pair buyers.Revised prints of EU Q1 GDP, central bank comments eyed for clear directions ahead of next week’s ECB.EUR/GBP snaps two-day losing streak as buyers prod the 0.8600 round figure, mildly bid around 0.8605 heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair takes clues from the recently firmer calls suggesting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate hikes versus the market’s indecision about the Bank of England’s (BoE) next move, considering the latest hints surrounding the UK. On Wednesday, Germany’s Industrial Production (IP) improved to 0.3% MoM versus 0.6% market forecasts and -2.1% prior (revised) whereas the yearly growth figures ease to 1.6% from 2.3% (revised) previous readouts and 1.2% expected. Considering the data, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabelle Schnabel pushes back the recent dovish concerns by stating that the impact of our tighter monetary policy on inflation is expected to peak in 2024. However, ECB policymaker, Klaas Knot, said that prolonged monetary tightening might still lead to stress in financial markets, which in turn prod ECB hawks. The ECB Official also added, “Inflation expectations in markets seem optimistic.” It’s worth noting that the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) released a survey, funded by the global quant giant KPMG, earlier on Thursday saying that Britain's labor market cooled further in May as starting salaries for permanent staff rose at the weakest pace in over two years. As the recruiters involved in the survey are the ones being closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE) and hence the results appear more important for the EUR/GBP pair traders. Alternatively, another poll of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) hints that the measure of new buyer inquiries rose to a net balance of -18, the least negative figure since -14 in May 2022, and up from -34 in April, per Reuters. On the same line, a fading optimism about UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s diplomatic US visit, mainly due to an absence of any major deal news, also favors the EUR/GBP buyers. Looking ahead, the revised version of the Eurozone first quarter (Q1) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to ease to 0.0% QoQ and 1.2% on YoY, will join the likely unimpressive Unemployment Change to entertain the intraday traders of the EUR/GBP. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close beyond the previous support line from May 11, now immediate resistance around 0.8635, the EUR/GBP remains pressured towards the yearly low marked the last week around 0.8590.  

Open interest in crude oil futures markets shrank by more than 13K contracts on Wednesday, leaving behind six consecutive daily builds according to pr

Open interest in crude oil futures markets shrank by more than 13K contracts on Wednesday, leaving behind six consecutive daily builds according to preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, volume dropped for the second session in a row, this time by around 58.5K contracts. WTI risks another move to $70.00 and below Wednesday’s small advance in prices of WTI was in tandem with shrinking open interest and volume, opening the door to a corrective decline in the very near term. That said, the immediate contention emerges at the key $70.00 mark ahead of the late May lows near the $67.00 mark per barrel.

GBP/USD is now expected to navigate between 1.2350 and 1.2550 in the short term, note UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Se

GBP/USD is now expected to navigate between 1.2350 and 1.2550 in the short term, note UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, GBP rose to a high of 1.2501 before retreating quickly to close at 1.2439 (+0.13%). Despite the advance, there is no significant increase in upward momentum. Today, GBP is likely to trade in a range, expected to be between 1.2400 and 1.2500.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The recent days price actions of GBP appear to be consolidative. In other words, there is no clear directional bias for now. GBP could trade between 1.2350 and 1.2550 for the time being.”

The GBP/USD pair has sensed selling pressure around 1.2450 in the early European session. The strength in the Cable seems waned as the US Dollar Index

GBP/USD has retreated after a short-lived pullback to near 1.2460 amid a recovery in the USD Index.Stubborn UK inflation is supporting more interest rate hikes from the BoE.GBP/USD is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern that indicates a contraction in volatility.The GBP/USD pair has sensed selling pressure around 1.2450 in the early European session. The strength in the Cable seems waned as the US Dollar Index (DXY) attempted a recovery after a correction below 104.00 Stubborn United Kingdom inflation is supporting more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE), which will keep the Pound Sterling in a bullish trajectory. The USD Index is likely to remain volatile as the odds of a neutral interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have started receding, knowing the fact that the labor market is extremely solid and an absence of recession signals. GBP/USD is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern that indicates a contraction in volatility, which is followed by wider ticks and heavy volume after an explosion. The upward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from May 25 low at 1.2308 while the downward-sloping trendline is placed from May 10 high at 1.2680. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2437 seems sticky to the asset, indicating a sideways performance. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has been confined into the 40.00-60.00 range, which signals that investors are awaiting a fresh trigger for a decisive move. Should the asset break below May 31 low at 1.2348, US Dollar bulls would drag the asset toward May 25 low at 1.2308. Slippage below the latter would expose the asset to April 03 low at 1.2275. On the flip side, a confident break above May 16 high at 1.2547 will drive the Cable towards May 10 low at 1.2603 followed by May 10 high at 1.2680. GBP/USD four-hour chart  

Norway Current Account down to 279.69B in 1Q from previous 361.2B

USD/CHF remains pressured around the intraday low near 0.9090, despite the latest corrective bounce off the day’s low heading into Thursday’s European

USD/CHF holds lower ground at intraday low during the first loss-making day in three.Overbought RSI, looming bear cross on MACD triggered Swiss Franc pair’s fall.Convergence of 100-HMA, previous resistance line challenges bears.USD/CHF remains pressured around the intraday low near 0.9090, despite the latest corrective bounce off the day’s low heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair drops for the first day in three. While tracing the catalysts for the quote’s latest weakness, the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought territory and previously looming bear cross on MACD, now confirmed, gain major attention. However, the bullish triangle breakout keeps the USD/CHF pair buyers hopeful unless the quote drops back below the one-week-old descending triangle’s top line, now immediate support near 0.9075. Adding strength to the 0.9075 support is the 100-Hour Moving Average (HMA). Should the pair slide beneath the 0.9075 support confluence, it can quickly challenge the double bottoms marked around 0.9035-30, forming part of the aforementioned triangle. On the contrary, the USD/CHF pair’s recovery moves need to refresh the weekly top, currently around 0.9110, to convince bulls for more upside runs, even if they hold the reins. Even so, a one-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.9115-20 can act as the last defense of the USD/CHF pair sellers. Overall, USD/CHF remains on the bull’s radar despite snapping a two-day winning streak. USD/CHF: Hourly chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

FX option expiries for June 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0610 953m 1.0650 1.1b 1.0700 2.9b 1

FX option expiries for June 8 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.0610 953m 1.0650 1.1b 1.0700 2.9b 1.0750 350m 1.0800 1.3b 1.0900 1.1b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2200 418m 1.2475 800m 1.2550 610m 1.2690 317m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      138.15 400m 139.00 717m 140.00 1.0b 141.00 518m - USD/CHF: USD amounts         0.8990 506m 0.9025 440m 0.9300 317m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6650 429m 0.6710 585m 0.6775 630m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3350 746m 1.3400 1.1b 1.3735 756m - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts         0.8620 301m

The greenback appears offered just below the 104.00 support when tracked by the USD Index (DXY) on Thursday. USD Index looks at data, risk trends The

The index hovers around the 104.00 region on Thursday.Investors continue to price in a pause in June.Weekly Claims, Wholesale Inventories next on tap in the docket.The greenback appears offered just below the 104.00 support when tracked by the USD Index (DXY) on Thursday. USD Index looks at data, risk trends The index adds to Wednesday’s small decline and puts the 104.00 region to the test on the back of further improvement in the risk-associated universe ahead of the opening bell in the old continent. In the meantime, bets for a pause at the Fed’s gathering in June seem to have lost momentum as of late, while a 25 bps rate hike in July seems the most likely scenario when gauged by FedWatch Tool measured by CME Group. In the US data space, usual Initial Claims for the week ended on June 3 are due seconded by Wholesale Inventories for the month of April. What to look for around USD The index looks vulnerable around the 104.00 mark amidst the marked pick-up in the appetite for the risk complex. In the meantime, bets of another 25 bps at the Fed’s next gathering in June reversed course in spite of the steady resilience of key US fundamentals (employment and prices, mainly), denting the recent rally in the dollar and favouring a further decline in US yields. Bolstering a pause by the Fed instead appears to be the extra tightening of credit conditions in response to uncertainty surrounding the US banking sector.Key events in the US this week: Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories (Thursday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in late 2023/early 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.15% at 103.94 and the next support comes at 103.38 (monthly low June 2) seconded by 102.98 (100-day SMA) and finally 102.51 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, the breakout of 104.69 (monthly high May 31) would open the door to 105.48 (200-day SMA) and then 105.88 (2023 high March 8).

USD/CAD fades bounce off intraday low as it drops to 1.3360 heading into Thursday’s European session, after refreshing the monthly bottom at 1.3320 th

USD/CAD remains pressured for the third consecutive day at the lowest level in a month.BoC traces RBA’s moves to surprise market with 0.25% rate hike to tame inflation woes.WTI crude oil remains depressed on demand-supply fears, ignores US Dollar’s two-day losing streak.Speech from BoC’s Beaudry, Canada employment data eyed ahead of next weeks’ FOMC.USD/CAD fades bounce off intraday low as it drops to 1.3360 heading into Thursday’s European session, after refreshing the monthly bottom at 1.3320 the previous day. In doing so, the Loonie pair cheers the US Dollar weakness while paying little heed to the mildly offered WTI crude oil price, which is Canada’s main export earner. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by announcing 25 basis points (bps) of increase to increase benchmark interest rate, to 4.75%, versus market expectations supporting no change in the previous rate of 4.50%. In its policy statement, the BoC said that concerns have increased that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target. That said, the BoC statement appeared dovish as it removed the April language about how the Canadian central bank is prepared to raise rates further if needed. Elsewhere, WTI crude oil prints mild losses near $72.50 while failing to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce, eyes the second consecutive weekly loss. In doing so, the black gold bears the burden of the market’s fears of slower economic growth due to hawkish central bank actions. It should be noted, however, that the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured despite jittery markets amid the latest increase in the bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged. Against this backdrop, S&P500 Futures extend Wednesday’s losses to 4,265, down 0.25% intraday, whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields grind near 3.79% after rising the most in five weeks the previous day. Looking ahead, comments from Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry and Canada’s monthly jobs report will be the key to watch for clear directions ahead of next weeks’ Fed meeting. Technical analysis Despite the latest weakness, the USD/CAD pair is yet to smash a seven-month-old ascending support line, around 1.3330 at the latest, which in turn joins the nearly oversold RSI (14) line to suggest a corrective bounce in price.  

France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) registered at 0.3% above expectations (0.2%) in 1Q

France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) above forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q: Actual (0.4%)

The AUD/USD pair has displayed a less-confident recovery to near 0.6620 in the early European session after a vertical sell-off from 0.6717. The Aussi

AUD/USD looks prone to more losses as the impact of the surprise RBA’s rate hike has started fading.Investors have turned cautious about US economic outlook as expectations for further policy-tightening by the Fed have deepened.Rising interest rates in Australia are clearly impacting their economic growth.The AUD/USD pair has displayed a less-confident recovery to near 0.6620 in the early European session after a vertical sell-off from 0.6717. The Aussie asset seems prone to more losses as gains propelled by a surprise interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have started waning. S&P500 futures generated significant losses in Asia. US equities have carry-forwarded their pessimism showed on Wednesday, indicating dented market sentiment. Investors have turned cautious about the United States’ economic outlook as expectations for the continuation of the policy-tightening spell by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have deepened. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected below 104.00 after a V-shape recovery. On a broader note, the USD Index is expected to remain sideways till the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will release next week. May’s Employment data is already out and now inflation figures will provide more clarity about the interest rate decision by the Fed. On the Australian Dollar front, the impact of a surprise interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) by RBA Governor Philip Lowe to 4.10% has started waning quickly as the decision is being followed by weak economic indicators. Australia’s Quarterly GDP was expanded by 0.2% while the street was anticipating an expansion of 0.3%. On an annual basis, Q1 GDP dropped to 2.3% vs. the estimates of 2.4%. Apart from that, the surplus in April’s Trade Balance data dropped sharply due to poor export numbers while imports increased, indicating decent domestic demand. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Wednesday that “rising interest rates are clearly impacting the economic growth,” He further added, “Growth momentum is waning,”  

France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

CME Group’s flash data for gold futures markets noted traders added just 465 contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday. Volume followed

CME Group’s flash data for gold futures markets noted traders added just 465 contracts to their open interest positions on Wednesday. Volume followed suit and went up by more than 56K contracts after two consecutive daily pullbacks. Gold: A potential test of $1930 looks likely Wednesday’s daily drop in gold prices was accompanied by increasing open interest and volume and exposes the continuation of the downtrend in the very near term. Against that, the yellow metal could revisit the area of recent lows around $1930 per ounce troy.

UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang suggest EUR/USD could now trade within 1.0635-1.0785 in the next few weeks. Ke

UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang suggest EUR/USD could now trade within 1.0635-1.0785 in the next few weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “EUR traded between 1.0666 and 1.0739 yesterday before closing little changed at 1.0697 (+0.06%). The price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase and EUR could continue to trade in a range. Expected range for today, 1.0670/1.0740.” Next 1-3 weeks: “After dropping to a low of 1.0633 last week, EUR rebounded to 1.0778 and it has since traded between the two levels. The price movements appear to be part of a consolidation and EUR could trade between 1.0635 and 1.0785 for a while more.”

Market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region remains sluggish, mostly downbeat, amid fears of slower economic recovery due to hawkish central bank acti

Asia-Pacific equities grind lower amid fears of higher rates, slower economic recovery.RBI keeps rates unchanged but multiple China state banks cut rates.Aussie trade surplus narrows while Japan’s Annualized GDP growth improves.Mixed mood prevails but higher yields, downbeat S&P500 Futures weigh on Asian shares.Market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region remains sluggish, mostly downbeat, amid fears of slower economic recovery due to hawkish central bank actions. Adding strength to the downbeat risk profile could be mixed headlines from China, Australia and Japan, as well as due to the upbeat US Treasury bond yields. While portraying the mood, S&P500 Futures extend Wednesday’s losses to 4,265, down 0.25% intraday, whereas the US 10-year Treasury bond yields grind near 3.79% after rising the most in five weeks the previous day. That said, MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan drops 0.60% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 prints 1.4% intraday losses heading into Thursday’s Asian session. It should be noted that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) keeps the benchmark Repo rate unchanged at 6.5% by matching market forecasts after June’s monetary policy meeting. However, a slew of Chinese state banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank cut their benchmark rates. The same raises speculations that the Chinese central bank, namely the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will also cut the rates. With this, India’s BSE Sensex print mild gains but most Chinese stocks are in the red by the press time. Elsewhere, hawkish concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) join the downbeat sentiment in China to weigh on the stocks in Australia and China. On a broader front, the risk profile soured on the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report that said that the global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand. Also contributing to the risk-off mood were concerns that the Fed isn’t likely to announce any rate hike in June but is expected to unveil a 0.25% rate lift in July. Amid these plays, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured while WTI crude oil prints mild losses and the Gold price remains mildly bid. Further, Antipodeans struggle for clear directions despite positing mild intraday gains of late. Also read: Forex Today: Another hawkish surprise shows inflation remains central bank’s main concern

Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook came in at 55, above forecasts (54.1) in May

Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current came in at 54.4 below forecasts (55.1) in May

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, are oscillating in a limited range above $72.00 in the late Asian session. The oil price is taking su

WTI has turned sideways above $72.00 as investors are assessing multiple economic catalysts.Inventories of Gasoline and Distillate in the US rose significantly higher, portraying a sharp decline in fuel demand.Chances of a steady interest rate decision by the Fed have dropped to 67%, which is sufficient to sour sentiment.West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, are oscillating in a limited range above $72.00 in the late Asian session. The oil price is taking sufficient time required to digest demand catalysts belonging to the United States and China. Apart from that, investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate policy for June. Reading from US Energy Information Administration (EIA) about oil inventory data for the week ending June 02 showed a drawdown by 0.451M while the street was anticipating a build-up. Contrary to that, inventories of Gasoline and Distillate rose significantly higher than estimates, portraying a sharp decline in fuel demand. Meanwhile, US factory activity has also remained weak in May as the US ISM agency reported a seventh straight contraction in the manufacturing sector, which brings in transparency that the oil demand in the US is extremely bleak. Going forward, the focus will be on the Fed’s June policy. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the chances of a steady interest rate decision have dropped to 67%, which is sufficient to trigger a risk-aversion theme. On the China front, Trade Balance data dropped sharply to $65.81B vs. the estimates of $92B and the former release of $90.21B. Exports were sharply contracted by 7.5%, which indicates that consumers are shifting to other countries for outsourcing or the global demand is turning extremely weak. In all sense, demand for the oil price is getting vulnerable. It is highly likely that the impact of OPEC’s production cuts would wane as demand remains the major catalyst for analyzing the oil price. Investors should note that China is the world’s biggest importer of oil and poor activity in China impact heavily on the oil price.  

Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current came in at 55 below forecasts (55.1) in May

The EUR/USD pair attracts some buying following the overnight pullback from the weekly high and climbs back above the 1.0700 mark during the Asian ses

EUR/USD edges higher and retakes the 1.0700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.A mildly softer tone around the USD is seen as a key factor lending support to the major.The formation of a bearish pennant warrants caution before positioning for further gains.The EUR/USD pair attracts some buying following the overnight pullback from the weekly high and climbs back above the 1.0700 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive, which, in turn, is seen lending some support to the EUR/USD pair. That said, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) this week suggest that the fight against inflation is not over yet. This supports prospects for a further policy tightening by the Fed, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and favours the USD bulls. From a technical perspective, the recent price action between two converging trend lines constitutes the formation of a bearish pennant on hourly charts. This comes on the back of the recent breakdown through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD pair is to the downside. Bearish traders, however, need to wait for weakness below the symmetrical triangle support, currently near the 1.0680-1.0675 region, before placing fresh bets. The latter is followed by the 1.0635 area, or over a two-month low touched last week, and the 1.0600 round-figure mark. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the EUR/USD pair towards intermediate support near the 1.0540-1.0535 area en route to the 1.0500 psychological mark. The latter coincides with the very important 200-day SMA and should help protect any further losses ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting next week. On the flip side, the top end of the aforementioned symmetrical triangle, currently around the 1.0745-1.0750 area, coincides with the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A convincing breakthrough could trigger a short-covering rally and allow the EUR/USD pair to reclaim the 1.0800 mark. The upward trajectory could get extended further towards testing the next relevant hurdle near the 1.0865-1.0870 region, representing the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. EUIR/USD 4-hour chart Key levels to watch  

USD/INR justifies the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) inaction during early Thursday as it reverses the initial losses around 82.60 after the Indian centr

USD/INR grinds lower while keeping the daily loss after RBI’s inaction.RBI keeps benchmark Repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, as expected.Mixed global growth, Fed concerns prod sentiment in Asia-Pacific zone, putting a floor under US Dollar price.Risk catalysts eyed for short-term directions ahead of next week’s FOMC.USD/INR justifies the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) inaction during early Thursday as it reverses the initial losses around 82.60 after the Indian central bank’s monetary policy decision. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) fails to justify the US Dollar’s weakness amid mixed market sentiment. RBI keeps the benchmark Repo rate unchanged at 6.5% by matching market forecasts after June’s monetary policy meeting. Following the interest rate announcements, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said, “We can derive satisfaction that Indian eco and financial sector stand robust in global environment,” The policymaker also added that the path ahead is now somewhat clearer. On the other hand, fears of global economic slowdown backed by higher rates weigh on the sentiment, even if the mixed Fed concerns and sluggish yields allow markets to remain slightly positive. That said, the latest increase in the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged, propel the USD/INR price even as the US Dollar struggles of late. Elsewhere, optimism surrounding China and downbeat Oil price allow the USD/INR to consolidate the weekly loss. A slew of Chinese state banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank cut their benchmark rates. The same raises speculations that the Chinese central bank, namely the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will also cut the rates. Further, China’s Director of China's National Administration of Financial Regulation Li Yunze recently mentioned that the economy is still recovering. It should be noted that the WTI crude oil prints mild losses near $72.50 while failing to extend the previous day’s corrective bounce, eyes the second consecutive weekly loss. To sum up, USD/INR justifies the RBI’s inaction by paring weekly gain. However, the quote’s further moves appear limited due to a light calendar and cautious mood ahead of the next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting. Technical analysis A daily closing beyond a two-week-old resistance line, now immediate support around 82.53, keeps USD/INR buyers hopeful of witnessing further upside toward the previous monthly high of around 83.00 round figure.  

India Reverse Repo Rate remains unchanged at 3.35%

India RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate) meets forecasts (6.5%)

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) Price eases from the weekly top, paring intraday gains, as the energy instrument buyers fail to cross the 200-SMA amid early Thu

Natural Gas Price seesaws around one-week high as the key technical levels challenge further upside.200-SMA prods XNG/USD buyers amid nearly overbought RSI conditions.Multiple supports, bullish MACD signals can put a floor under the Natural Gas Price even as rising wedge teases bears.Natural Gas (XNG/USD) Price eases from the weekly top, paring intraday gains, as the energy instrument buyers fail to cross the 200-SMA amid early Thursday. With this, the XNG/USD prints mild losses of around $2.38 by the press time. In doing so, the asset also eases within a one-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between $2.35 and $2.43. Apart from the 200-SMA and rising wedge, the nearly overbought RSI (14) line also teases the Natural Gas sellers. However, the quote needs to break the $2.35 support to confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall toward $2.15. During the anticipated downside, the previous resistance line from May 26, close to $2.32 at the latest, can act as an extra filter towards the north. Following that, a two-month-old ascending trend line and resistance-turned-support from May 19, respectively near $2.20 and $2.16, can challenge the Natural Gas sellers before directing them to the $2.15. On the contrary, an upside break of the 200-SMA hurdle of $2.40 needs validation from the stated wedge’s top line surrounding $2.43 to convince the XNG/USD bulls. Even so, the late May swing high around $2.50 and a three-week-long horizontal resistance area around $2.60-61 can challenge the Natural Gas upside before welcoming the bulls. Natural Gas Price: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected

The NZD/USD pair attracts some buying near the 0.6025 area, or a one-week low touched during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the

NZD/USD stages a modest recovery from a one-week low touched earlier this Thursday.A modest USD downtick lends some support to the pair, though the upside seems capped.The fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets.The NZD/USD pair attracts some buying near the 0.6025 area, or a one-week low touched during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day's losses. The pair is currently placed around mid-0.6000s, up 0.20% for the day, albeit the intraday uptick lacks bullish conviction. The US Dollar (USD) continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction and edges lower within a familiar trading band held over the past two weeks or so, which, in turn, lends some support to the NZD/USD pair. The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path is seen as a key factor holding back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets. That said, elevated US Treasury bond yields, along with the caution market mood, should help limit the downside for the safe-haven Greenback. Last week's dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials fueled speculations that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at the June 13-14 policy meeting. That said, the inflation and labor market data keep alive hopes for a 25 bps lift-off. Moreover, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) this week suggest that the fight against inflation is still not over. This supports prospects for further tightening by the Fed and acts as a tailwind for the US bond yields. The market sentiment, meanwhile, remains fragile in the wake of the worsening global economic conditions. The concerns resurfaced after Chinese trade data released on Wednesday showed that the surplus sank to a 13-month low in May on the back of a slump in exports. The data indicated weak overseas demand for Chinese goods and poses challenges for the world's largest economy. This could weigh on antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi, and contribute to capping the NZD/USD pair. This, along with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) explicit signal that it was done with its most aggressive hiking cycle since 1999, warrants caution before placing fresh bullish bets. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the NZD/USD pair's recovery from the YTD low, levels just below the 0.6000 psychological mark touched last week. Market participants now look to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US.  Technical levels to watch  

Gold Price (XAU/USD) seesaws around intraday high as it prints mild gains after falling the most in a week the previous day. Even so, the XAU/USD rema

Gold Price grinds higher past $1,930 key support confluence amid softer US Dollar, sluggish markets.Risk appetite dwindles as economic slowdown concerns jostle with easing hawkish Fed bets.Light calendar may restrict immediate XAU/USD moves but sluggish yields keep sellers hopeful.Gold Price (XAU/USD) seesaws around intraday high as it prints mild gains after falling the most in a week the previous day. Even so, the XAU/USD remains indecisive on a weekly basis as the markets struggle for clear directions amid the pre-Fed blackout and mixed feelings about global growth concerns. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) flags fears of a weak global economic transition amid higher rates and prod the Gold buyers, especially after the surprise rate hikes from the central banks in Australia and Canada. However, easing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 0.25% rate hike in June contrasts with rising odds of witnessing a July hike to underpin the Gold Price recovery of late. Furthermore, the risk-positive headlines from China and expectations of witnessing easy rates from Beijing also favor the XAU/USD bulls as the dragon nation is one of the world’s key Gold consumers. Looking ahead, second-tier data and headlines about global growth, as well as central banks, may entertain gold traders ahead of the next week’s all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It should be observed that XAU/USD traders should also pay attention to Friday’s China inflation data and yields for clear directions. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: 100 DMA appears a tough nut to crack for XAU/USD sellers Gold Price: Key levels to watch Our Technical Confluence Indicator suggests that the Gold Price edges higher past $1,933 key support comprising the lows marked in the last month, as well as in the last week. The same joins the market’s indecision, as well as the US Dollar's weakness, to lure the buyers. That said, a convergence of the 100-DMA and the previous daily low restricts the immediate downside of the Gold Price near $1,940. In a case where the XAU/USD drops below $1,933, a Pivot Point One Week S1 can act as an extra downside filter at $1,926. Alternatively, Fibonacci 38.2% in one-day and 61.8% in one-week together highlight an immediate upside hurdle for the Gold Price near $1,952. However, the 10-DMA and middle band of the Bollinger on the four-hour play, close to $1,956 appear the key resistance for the XAU/USD bulls to cross for conviction. Following that, a slew of resistances around $1,960 and $1,970 can prod the Gold buyers before highlighting the $2,000 psychological magnet. Here is how it looks on the tool About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound from the 139.00 mark, or the weekly low and meets with some supply during th

USD/JPY edges lower on Thursday and reverses a part of the overnight positive move.The recent range-bound price action constitutes the formation of a bullish rectangle.A convincing break below 139.00 is needed to support prospects for additional losses.The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound from the 139.00 mark, or the weekly low and meets with some supply during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 139.85 area, down nearly 0.20% for the day, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive. Speculations for more sizeable interventions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to support the domestic currency, along with the cautious market mood, benefit the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY). Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. That said, the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path and elevated US Treasury bond yields should help limit the downside for the buck, which, in turn, should lend support to the major. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair has been oscillating in a range since the beginning of the current week, forming a rectangle on hourly charts. Against the backdrop of a rally from the mid-133.00s, or the May monthly swing low, this might still be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase. Moreover, spot prices, so far, manage to hold above the upward-sloping 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which favours bulls and supports prospects for further gains. Bullish traders, however, need to wait for acceptance above the 140.00 psychological mark and a sustained break through the 140.20-140.30 horizontal resistance before placing fresh bets. The USD/JPY pair might then accelerate the positive move towards challenging the YTD peak, around the 140.90 region, touched in May. Some follow-through buying beyond the 141.00 mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for a further appreciating move for the pair. On the flip side, the 100-period SMA, currently pegged just ahead of the 139.00 round figure, might continue to protect the immediate downside. A convincing break below the 139.00 mark might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair to the monthly low, around the 138.45-138.40 zone. The downward trajectory could get extended further towards the 138.00 mark before spot prices eventually drop to the 137.30 region, representing the very important 200-day SMA support. USD/JPY 4-hour chart Key levels to watch  

A Vice Governor at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Thursday, the central bank has the ability to maintain stable FX market operations. He sa

A Vice Governor at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Thursday, the central bank has the ability to maintain stable FX market operations. He said that “we have confidence, conditions and capacity to maintain stable operations of the FX market.” Related readsChina’s Financial Regulator: Economy still recovering, demand will be boostedUSD/CNH renews six-month high above 7.1500 as Fed vs. PBoC is likely to widen

GBP/USD buyers occupy driver’s seat around 1.2450, despite marking a slow run towards the north heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the

GBP/USD stays on the front foot for the second consecutive day after reversing from weekly top.Easing British labor shortage contrasts with housing market pressure to challenge BoE rate speculations.Fed’s June rate hike slips off the table with July likely being the last rate hike.Cable buyers may have limited upside room as UK politics, BoE clues probing Pound Sterling optimists.GBP/USD buyers occupy driver’s seat around 1.2450, despite marking a slow run towards the north heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the Cable pair buyers cheer the receding odds of a Fed rate hike in June while early signals for the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate guide appear mixed. Earlier in the day, the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) released a survey, funded by the global quant giant KPMG, saying that Britain's labor market cooled further in May as starting salaries for permanent staff rose at the weakest pace in over two years. It should be noted that the recruiters included in the survey are the ones being closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE) and hence the results appear more important for the GBP/USD pair traders. On the contrary, another poll of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) hints that the measure of new buyer inquiries rose to a net balance of -18, the least negative figure since -14 in May 2022, and up from -34 in April, per Reuters. Elsewhere, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak fails to mark any major achievements during this diplomatic US visit and prods the GBP/USD buyers. “Rishi Sunak confirming he isn’t talking about a UK-US free trade deal with Joe Biden is the final nail in the coffin of promises he and others made to win the 2016 Brexit referendum,” reports UK Mirror. Apart from the British catalysts, the latest increase in the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July increased, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged, also challenge the GBP/USD upside. That said, the risk profile soured and added negatives for the GBP/USD, which it ignores, on the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report that said that the global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand. The OECD report also mentioned, “UK growth of 0.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024 (previously -0.2% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024).” Amid these plays, the US 10-year bond coupons remain mostly unchanged at 3.79% by the press time whereas the two-year yields grind higher to 4.54% as we write. While portraying the market’s mood, Wall Street closed mixed and S&500 Futures struggle for clear directions. Looking ahead, a light calendar in the UK and the US, apart from the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, may fail to provide any major challenge to the Pound Sterling buyers. However, risk catalysts and the bond market moves should be closely observed for clear directions. Technical analysis GBP/USD grinds within a 100-pip broad one-month-old symmetrical triangle, currently between 1.2500 and 1.2400, as bulls flex muscles.  

The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on its gains recorded over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian sessio

USD/CHF oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Thursday.The cautious mood benefits the safe-haven CHF and caps gains amid subdued USD.Reviving bets more Fed rate hikes lift the US bond yields and lend support to the buck.The USD/CHF pair struggles to capitalize on its gains recorded over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade below the 0.9100 mark, with bulls still awaiting a sustained move beyond a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets. The prevalent cautious mood lends some support to the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF), which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, acts as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair. The market sentiment remains fragile in the wake of worries about a global economic sentiment, fueled by dismal Chinese macro data released on Wednesday. In fact, China's trade surplus sank to a 13-month low in May, led by a surprise tumble in exports. This suggests that overseas demand for Chinese goods remained weak and poses additional challenges for the world's second-largest economy, tempering investors' appetite for riskier assets. The USD, on the other hand, is oscillating in a familiar range over the past two weeks or so as market players seem uncertain over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next policy move. Last week's dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials fueled speculations that the US central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on June 13-14. That said, the inflation and labor market data kept alive hopes for a 25 bps lift-off next week. Moreover, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) this week suggest that the fight against inflation is still not over yet. The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favours the USD bulls and should help limit the downside for the USD/CHF pair. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through the 100-day SMA before positioning for an extension of over a one-month-old uptrend. Traders now look to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, due later during the North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the major. Technical levels to watch  

The USD/TRY pair eases from the 24.00 neighbourhood, or a fresh all-time high touched during the Asian session on Thursday, though any meaningful corr

USD/TRY retreats from a fresh all-time high, though the downside seems cushioned.Extremely overstretched oscillators prompt traders to take some profits off the table.Any meaningful corrective decline might still attract fresh buyers and remain limited.The USD/TRY pair eases from the 24.00 neighbourhood, or a fresh all-time high touched during the Asian session on Thursday, though any meaningful corrective decline still seems elusive. Spot price currently trades around the 23.30 area, down just over 0.10% for the day. From a technical perspective, extremely overstretched oscillators on daily/weekly/monthly charts turn out to be a key factor holding back traders from placing fresh bearish bets around the Turkish Lira. Any subsequent slide in the USD/TRY pair, however, is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain cushioned near the 23.00 mark. The said handle should act as a pivotal point for intraday traders, which if broken decisively might prompt some long-unwinding trade and pave the way for deeper losses. The USD/TRY pair might then accelerate the fall towards the 22.80 horizontal support en route to the 22.30-22.25 region before dropping back to the 22.00 round figure. On the flip side, bulls might now await a sustained strength beyond the 24.00 mark before placing fresh bets and positioning for an extension of the recent blowout rally witnessed over the past two weeks or so. It is worth recalling that the USD/TRY pair has climbed nearly 17% following President Erdogan’s win at the general elections on May 28. USD/TRY 1-hour chart

USD/CNH remains on the front foot at the highest levels in six months, mildly bid near 7.1530 during early Thursday, as fears of the Federal Reserve’s

USD/CNH rises for the fifth consecutive day to prod late November 2022 high.Multiple Chinese banks cut rates to fuel speculations of PBoC rate reduction.Market sentiment dwindles amid fresh fears of economic slowdown, higher rates.China inflation, second-tier US data can entertain traders ahead of the key next week.USD/CNH remains on the front foot at the highest levels in six months, mildly bid near 7.1530 during early Thursday, as fears of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hikes contrast with the concerns that the People’s Bank of China will cut the benchmark rates. That said, the market’s fears of economic slowdown also weigh on the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH). That said, a slew of Chinese state banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank cut their benchmark rates. The same raises speculations that the Chinese central bank, namely the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will also cut the rates. Alternatively, China’s Director of China's National Administration of Financial Regulation Li Yunze recently mentioned that the economy is still recovering. On the other hand, the latest increase in the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July increased, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged, propel the USD/CNH price even as the US Dollar struggles of late. Previously, the risk profile soured on the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report that said that the global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand. The OECD report also mentioned, “Sees Chinese growth of 5.4% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024 (previously 5.3% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024).” Against this backdrop, the US 10-year bond coupons remain mostly unchanged at 3.79% by the press time whereas the two-year yields grind higher to 4.54% as we write. While portraying the market’s mood, Wall Street closed mixed and S&500 Futures struggle for clear directions. Looking forward, USD/CNH traders may need to keep their eyes on the risk catalysts for clear directions, which in turn highlights headlines surrounding growth and central banks. That said, Friday’s China inflation data will crucial to watch ahead of the next week’s all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. Technical analysis A one-month-old bullish trend channel, currently between 7.1830 and 7.1000, restricts short-term USD/CNH moves while keeping the bulls hopeful.  

Li Yunze is Director of China's National Administration of Financial Regulation. economy is still recovering demand will be boosted, expanded will opt

Li Yunze, Director of China's National Administration of Financial Regulation, made some upbeat remarks on the Chinese economy this Thursday. Key quotes Economy is still recovering. Demand will be boosted, expanded. Will optimise private financing, strengthen financial services for private business. The recent global banking crisis has had little impact on china but does offer a cautionary tale. China has the conditions and confidence to prevent systemic financial risks.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight late rebound from the 1.3320 area, or a one-month low and meets with a fresh supply during t

USD/CAD trades with a mild negative bias for the third successive day on Thursday.The BoC’s surprise rate hike continues to underpin the CAD and weighs on the pair.The Fed rate-hike uncertainty might hold back bears from placing aggressive bets.The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight late rebound from the 1.3320 area, or a one-month low and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Thursday. The pair trades with a mild negative bias for the third successive day and is currently placed just above the mid-1.3300s. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to draw support from the Bank of Canada's (BoC) surprise 25 bps lift-off on Wednesday, which, along with subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, exert some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. It is worth recalling that the Canadian central bank defied market expectations by restarting its policy tightening campaign and hiked its overnight rate to 4.75%, or a 22-year high. In the accompanying policy statement, the BoC noted that concerns have increased that CPI could get stuck materially above the 2% target. The markets were quick to price in yet another increase next month to ratchet down an overheating economy and stubbornly high inflation. The USD, on the other hand, remains confined in a familiar trading band held over the past two weeks or so as investors seem uncertain over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-hike path. Dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials last week fueled speculations for an imminent pause in the US central bank's policy tightening cycle. In fact, the current market pricing indicates a greater chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its June 13-14 policy meeting. That said, the recent inflation and labor market data from the US kept alive hopes for a 25 bps lift-off next week. Moreover, an unexpected rate hike by other major central banks this week, including the Reserve Bank of Australia and the BoC, suggests that the fight against inflation is not over yet. This, in turn, supports the view that the Fed will likely keep interest rates higher for longer and continues to act as a tailwind for elevated US Treasury bond yields, which is seen lending some support to the buck and the USD/CAD pair Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling before traders start positioning for an extension of an over a one-week-old downtrend. Market participants now look forward to the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US, due later during the North American session. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment will drive demand for the safe-haven USD. Traders will further take cues from Oil price dynamics, which tend to influence the commodity-linked Loonie, for a fresh impetus and grab short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. Technical levels to watch  

AUD/USD retreats from intraday high to near 0.6660 while paring the late Wednesday’s rebound from 0.6640 during early Thursday morning. In doing so, t

AUD/USD picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from the highest level in a month.Australia Trade Balance drops in April despite improvement in Exports.Bond market’s consolidation after a heavy move, rate chatters in China also underpin Aussie pair’s rebound.Risk catalysts, mid-tier US data eyed for clear directions.AUD/USD eases from intraday high to near 0.6660 while paring the late Wednesday’s rebound from 0.6640 during early Thursday morning. In doing so, the Aussie pair fades the early Asian session’s run-up to refresh the monthly top, after reversing from the highest levels since May 11 the previous day. With this, the Aussie pair justifies mixed Australia trade data for April amid sluggish markets. Australia’s Trade Balance declines to 11,158M in April versus 14,000M market forecasts and 15,269M prior. That said, the Pacific nation’s Exports rose by 5.0%, versus 4.0% prior, whereas the Imports repeat 2.0% growth for the said month. Apart from the mixed Aussie data, sluggish sentiment in the market also prods the AUD/USD pair, due to its risk-barometer status. The reason could be linked to the fears of a global economic slowdown and higher rates. However, hawkish concerns from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) contrast with rate cuts by Chinese banks to underpin the AUD/USD pair’s recovery. Earlier in the day, a slew of Chinese banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China and Construction Bank cut their benchmark rates. The same raises speculations that the Chinese central bank, namely the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), will also cut the rates, which in turn suggests more fund flow to the economy and is positive for the AUD/USD pair due to the Aussie-China trade ties. Against this backdrop, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose the most in five weeks to 3.79% while the two-year counterpart marched to 4.52% at the latest. That said, the US 10-year bond coupons remain mostly unchanged at 3.79% by the press time whereas the two-year yields grind higher to 4.54% as we write. While portraying the market’s mood, Wall Street closed mixed and S&500 Futures struggle for clear directions. Looking ahead, the US Initial Jobless Claims and the central bank chatters can entertain the AUD/USD pair traders ahead of Friday’s inflation data from China. Technical analysis Unless providing a clear upside break of the 0.6715 resistance confluence, encompassing two downward-sloping resistance lines from February 02 and 14 respectively, the AUD/USD pair’s upside remains elusive.  

Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous 4% to -5% in April

According to the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s trade surplus shrank more than expected in April. developin

According to the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s trade surplus shrank more than expected in April. Australia April Goods/Services Exports dropped 5.0% on a monthly and seasonally adjusted vs. 2.0% previous. The country’s April Goods/Services Imports rose 2% MoM and seasonally adjusted vs. 2.0% booked in March. Market reaction AUD/USD has paused its upside on the discouraging Australian trade figures. The spot is trading 0.16% higher at 0.6663, at the press time.  

Australia Exports (MoM) climbed from previous 4% to 5% in April

Australia Imports (MoM) remains unchanged at 2% in April

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) came in at 11158M, below expectations (14000M) in April

Australia Exports (MoM) fell from previous 4% to -5% in April

Gold price attracts some buyers near the $1,940 area, representing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), during the Asian session on Thursday and r

Gold price once again finds some support near 100-day SMA and edges higher on Thursday.A mildly softer tone around the US Dollar and the cautious mood lend support to the metal.The uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy move could cap any meaningful gains.Gold price attracts some buyers near the $1,940 area, representing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), during the Asian session on Thursday and recovers a part of the overnight slide to a one-week low. The XAU/USD currently trades around the $1,945-$1,946 region and remains well within a familiar trading range held over the past three weeks or so. Subdued US Dollar acts as a tailwind for Gold price The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day's goodish bounce from the weekly low and turns out to be a key factor lending some support to the Gold price. The downside for the USD, however, seems cushioned amid the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate hike path. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets and act as a headwind for the US Dollar-denominated precious metal. Federal Reserve’s uncertain rate-hike path caps XAU/USD Last week's dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials reaffirmed market expectations for an imminent pause in the US central bank's policy tightening cycle. In fact, the current market pricing indicates a greater chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting on June 13-14. That said, the recent inflation and labor market data from the United States (US) kept alive hopes for a 25 basis points (bps) lift-off next week. Furthermore, surprise rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) earlier this week and the Bank of Canada (BoC) on Wednesday suggested that the fight against inflation is not over yet. This, in turn, fueled speculations that the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer and led to the overnight sharp rise in the US Treasury bond yields, which favours the USD bulls and keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the non-yielding Gold price. A cautious market mood could lend support to the precious metal That said, the prevalent cautious mood could lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Dismal Chinese macro data released on Wednesday, showing that trade surplus sank to a 13-month low in May, led by a slump in exports in the wake of weak overseas demand for Chinese goods, continue to weigh on investors' sentiment. Hence, strong follow-through selling is needed to support prospects for an extension of the recent pullback from an all-time high touched in May. Gold price technical outlook From a technical perspective, bearish traders still need to wait for a convincing break and acceptance below the 100-day SMA before placing fresh bets. Some follow-through selling below the May monthly swing low, around the $1,932 region, will reaffirm the negative bias and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $1,900 round figure. The downward trajectory could get extended further and drag the XAU/USD towards the $1,876-$1,875 horizontal support en route to the very important 200-day SMA, currently around the $1,839 region. On the flip side, any meaningful intraday appreciating move is likely to confront stiff resistance near the $1,962-$1,964 region. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $1,983-$1,985 supply zone en route to the $2,000 psychological mark. The XAU/USD could eventually climb towards the $2,010-$2,012 supply zone. Key levels to watch  

EUR/USD renews intraday high around 1.0710 as bulls keep the reins for the second consecutive day amid early Thursday. In doing so, the major currency

EUR/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, defends previous rebound from weekly low.US Dollar fails to cheer hawkish Fed bets, upbeat yields amid mixed economic concerns.Sluggish sentiment prods Euro buyers as fears of recession, higher rates return to the table.Final readings of Eurozone Q1 GDP, US employment clues eyed for clear directions.  EUR/USD renews intraday high around 1.0710 as bulls keep the reins for the second consecutive day amid early Thursday. In doing so, the major currency pair fails to justify looming economic fears and upbeat US Treasury bond yields ahead of the revised readings of Eurozone first quarter (Q1) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Growing fears from the economic slowdown, as perceived from the latest downbeat statistics from the top-tier economies, weigh on the market sentiment and the EUR/USD price of late. Adding strength to the economic pessimism are the concerns surrounding higher interest rates from the headline central banks, especially after the latest hawkish surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). On Wednesday, Germany’s Industrial Production (IP) improved to 0.3% MoM versus 0.6% market forecasts and -2.1% prior (revised) whereas the yearly growth figures ease to 1.6% from 2.3% (revised) previous readouts and 1.2% expected. That said, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabelle Schnabel pushes back the recent dovish concerns by stating that the impact of our tighter monetary policy on inflation is expected to peak in 2024. However, ECB policymaker, Klaas Knot, said that prolonged monetary tightening might still lead to stress in financial markets, which in turn prod ECB hawks. The ECB Official also added, “Inflation expectations in markets seem optimistic.” On a different page, the looming fears of a $1.0 bond issuance by the United States Treasury Department, due to the debt-ceiling deal, also prod the market sentiment and weigh on the bond price, as well as bolster the yields while putting a floor under the DXY. It’s worth noting that the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report said that the global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand. Also acting as the negative for the EUR/USD is the latest increase in the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July increased, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged. With this, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose the most in five weeks to 3.79% while the two-year counterpart marched to 4.52% at the latest. That said, the US 10-year bond coupons remain mostly unchanged at 3.79% by the press time whereas the two-year yields grind higher to 4.54% as we write. While portraying the market’s mood, Wall Street closed mixed and S&500 Futures struggle for clear directions. Hence, uncertain markets allow the EUR/USD pair to benefit from the US Dollar’s retreat, down 0.10% intraday near 104.00 at the latest. However, the quote’s further upside hinges on the Eurozone Q1 GDP, US Initial Jobless Claims and the central bank chatters. Technical analysis EUR/USD rises within a one-week-old Pennant formation, currently between 1.0730 and 1.0670. That said, the Euro pair’s rebound from a five-month-old ascending support line joins the recently downbeat RSI (14) line, as well as an impending bull cross on the MACD, to keep buyers hopeful. Also read: EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro bulls flex muscles within weekly Pennant around 1.0700  

Silver Price (XAG/USD) regains upside momentum, following the previous day’s U-turn from a multi-day high, as buyers prod $23.50 amid early Thursday.

Silver Price picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s retreat from three-week high.Firmer MACD signals, repeated failures to break 100-DMA keep buyers hopeful.Daily closing beyond $24.10 becomes necessary for XAG/USD bears to keep the reins.Silver Price (XAG/USD) regains upside momentum, following the previous day’s U-turn from a multi-day high, as buyers prod $23.50 amid early Thursday. In doing so, the XAG/USD eyes another attempt to break the 21-DMA hurdle after portraying three failures to cross the short-term moving average resistance in the last week. That said, the bullish MACD signals and repeated failures to break the 100-DMA support, around $23.30 by the press time, underpin the hopes of the Silver Price run-up. In a case where the XAG/USD crosses the 21-DMA hurdle of $23.55, it can rise towards a three-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $24.00-24.10. However, April’s low of near $24.50 and February’s high surrounding $24.65 could challenge the Silver buyers afterward. On the flip side, a daily closing below the 100-DMA support of $23.30 becomes necessary for the Silver bear’s conviction. Even so, an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to $23.15 by the press time, quickly followed by the $23.00 round figure, can restrict the short-term downside of the Silver Price. To sum up, the Silver Price is likely to recover but the upside room appears limited. Silver Price: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected  

At the beginning of Thursday’s Asian session the EUR/JPY rose after Japan reported strong Current Account data but a Trade Balance deficit. In additi

EUR/JPY rises after GDP in Q1 for Japan surprisingly contracted by 0.3%.Current Account showed a surplus and Trade Balance deficit in April.Eyes on Eurozone GDP data on Thursday.
At the beginning of Thursday’s Asian session the EUR/JPY rose after Japan reported strong Current Account data but a Trade Balance deficit. In addition, the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) unexpectedly contracted. As a reaction, the EUR/JPY increased slightly to the 149.88 area. For the rest of the session, GDP data from the Eurozone (EZ) may have a further impact on the pair. Japan released mixed economic data The Cabinet Office from Japan reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% (QoQ) in Q1 while the markets expected a 0.5% expansion from the previous 0.4% quarterly reading. However, the annualized rate showed an expansion of 2.7% from its previous 1.6%. In addition, the Ministry of Finance reported a ¥1,895B Current Account surplus but a ¥113.1B Trade Balance deficit, which came better than the consensus.
On Thursday, the EZ will report GDP data from Q1, which is expected to have stagnated in the quarterly reading and a slight deceleration in the annualized rate from 1.3% to 1.2%.  Levels to watch According to the daily chart, the EUR/JPY exchange rate holds a neutral to bullish outlook for the short term as the market enters a period of consolidation. However, technical indicators remain positive, indicating that the market may be preparing for another leg up. If EUR/JPY manages to move higher, the next resistances to watch are at the 149.80 zone, followed by the 150.00 area and the 150.50 level. On the other hand, The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the 149.40 level is key for EUR/JPY to maintain its upside bias. If it is breached, a more pronounced decline towards the 148.50 area and 148.00 zone could come into play.   EUR/JPY daily chart      

USD/JPY licks its wounds around the 140.00 psychological magnet during the first loss-making day in three as Tokyo opens for trading on Thursday. In d

USD/JPY pares intraday losses, the first in three, amid mixed catalysts.Japan’s Annualized GDP revised higher for Q1 but other growth signals remain sluggish.Yields grind higher amid concerns about economic slowdown, higher rates from key central banks.Second-tier US, Japan data and risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.USD/JPY licks its wounds around the 140.00 psychological magnet during the first loss-making day in three as Tokyo opens for trading on Thursday. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to justify upbeat Treasury bond yields amid mixed data at home. That said, Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slipped to -0.3% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, versus 0.5% expected and 0.4% prior. However, the GDP Annualized got a strong upward revision to 2.7% versus 1.9% market estimation and 1.6% prior readings. It should be noted that the Current Account balance also came in better-than-forecast with
¥1,895.1B figures for April and the Bank Landing rose in May whereas the Trade Balance - BOP Basis improves to ¥-113.1B in April. “Japan's economy grew more than initially thought in January-March, revised data showed on Thursday, as a post-pandemic pickup in corporate and consumer spending helped offset the hit to exports from slowing global demand,” said Reuters after data. Elsewhere, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose the most in five weeks to 3.79% while the two-year counterpart marched to 4.52% at the latest. That said, the US 10-year bond coupons remain mostly unchanged at 3.79% by the press time whereas the two-year yields grind higher to 4.54% as we write. It should be noted that recent challenges to the major economies, as perceived from the latest downbeat statistics from the top-tier economies, renew recession fears and weigh on the USD/JPY price. Adding strength to the economic pessimism are the concerns surrounding higher interest rates from the headline central banks, especially after the latest hawkish surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada (BoC). On Wednesday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said, “When achievement of price target is foreseen, we will discuss specifics of an exit policy and disclose information as needed.” Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed mixed and S&500 Futures struggle for clear directions. Looking ahead, second-tier statistics from the US and Japan may entertain the USD/JPY traders. However, risk catalysts and fears of higher rates, as well as economic slowdown concerns, can lure the Yen pair sellers. Technical analysis A one-week-old bullish pennant, currently between 140.20 and 139.20, restricts immediate USD/JPY moves amid upbeat oscillators.  

The GBP/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit remains well below the weekly top, around the 1.2500 psychological mark tou

GBP/USD trades with a mild positive bias and is supported by subdued USD price action.The uncertainty over the Fed’s next policy moves keeps the USD bulls on the defensive.Bets for additional BoE rate hikes underpin the Sterling and act as a tailwind for the pair.The GBP/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit remains well below the weekly top, around the 1.2500 psychological mark touched the previous day. The pair is currently placed just below mid-1.2400s, up less than 0.10% for the day, and draws support from subdued US Dollar (USD) price action. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, continues with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction in the wake of the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next policy move. Last week's dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials lifted bets for an imminent pause in the US central bank's policy tightening cycle. Last week's dovish rhetoric by several Fed officials lifted bets for an imminent pause in the US central bank's policy tightening cycle. This, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and should act as a tailwind for the USD. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond holds steady near the monthly peak touched on Wednesday, which might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the buck and cap any meaningful gains for the GBP/USD pair. The downside, however, seems limited on the back of expectations for further policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE). Investors now seem convinced that the UK central bank will be far more aggressive in policy tightening to contain stubbornly high inflation and expect another 25 bps lift-off on June 22. Furthermore, market participants see a roughly 60% chance that rates will peak at 5.5% later this year. The bets were reaffirmed by the official consumer inflation data, which showed that the headline UK CPI fell less than expected in April and a closely watched measure of core price surged to a 31-year high. Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release from the UK on Thursday, leaving the GBP/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Later during the North American session, traders will take cues from the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. Apart from this, the US bond yields will drive the USD and provide some impetus to the major. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants caution before placing fresh directional bets. Technical levels to watch  

The dollar's renewed strength against most major currencies will not fade away anytime soon, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters, who said i

The dollar's renewed strength against most major currencies will not fade away anytime soon, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters, who said it would take rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to weaken the currency substantially.More to come

US Dollar Index (DXY) stays pressured around 104.00 amid early Thursday in Asia as hawkish Fed bets jostle with the US growth fears amid sluggish sess

US Dollar Index remains depressed after reversing from the highest levels in three months, mildly offered of late.Fears of slower US economic growth, mixed concerns about Fed rate hike prod DXY traders.Upbeat yields put a floor under DXY prices amid sluggish sessions.Risk catalysts, second-tier US data eyed for clear directions.US Dollar Index (DXY) stays pressured around 104.00 amid early Thursday in Asia as hawkish Fed bets jostle with the US growth fears amid a sluggish session. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies fails to justify upbeat US Treasury bond yields, as well as the greenback’s haven status. That said, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose the most in five weeks to 3.79% while the two-year counterpart marched to 4.52% at the latest. On Wednesday, the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report said that the global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand. It should be noted that the looming fears of a $1.0 bond issuance by the United States Treasury Department, due to the debt-ceiling deal, also prod the market sentiment and weigh on the bond price, as well as bolster the yields while putting a floor under the DXY. On the same line, downbeat statistics from China and the US underpin global recession woes and join the fears of higher interest rates from the key central banks to weigh on the risk appetite and favor the US Dollar. Furthermore, US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rise to the highest levels in a week and tease the Fed hawks, as well as the US Dollar Index buyers. Alternatively, the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July increased, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged. The same joins recently downbeat US data to weigh on the US Dollar Index (DXY) amid a sluggish session. Looking forward, the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be eyed for clear directions. However, major attention should be given to the risk catalysts and the yields as the latest shift in the market’s sentiment weighs on the risk-barometer pair. Technical analysis A one-week-old descending resistance line, around 104.20 at the latest, joins nearly overbought RSI (14) and looming bear cross on the MACD to direct US Dollar Index bears toward the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), around 103.40 by the press time.  

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) in line with expectations (2%) in 1Q

Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis above forecasts (¥-1748B) in April: Actual (¥-113.1B)

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at 2.7%, above forecasts (1.9%) in 1Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at -0.3%, below expectations (0.5%) in 1Q

Japan Current Account n.s.a. registered at ¥1895.1B above expectations (¥1663.8B) in April

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) above forecasts (3%) in May: Actual (3.4%)

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks up to ¥610.9B in June 2 from previous ¥379.2B

Japan Foreign Bond Investment fell from previous ¥1028.8B to ¥524.7B in June 2

AUD/USD stays depressed around 0.6650 after reversing from a one-month high. In doing so, the quote struggles to find traction as hawkish concerns abo

AUD/USD fades corrective bounce after snapping four-day uptrend, reversing from the highest level in a month.RBA’s Lowe defends hawkish surprise by citing inflation woes, Australia Q1 GDP growth rate eases.Recently softer China data join fears of global economic slowdown to exert downside pressure on Aussie pair.Australia trade numbers, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.AUD/USD stays depressed around 0.6650 after reversing from a one-month high. In doing so, the quote struggles to find traction as hawkish concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) join growth fears to challenge the Aussie bulls. With this, the risk-barometer pair stays clueless amid the early hours of Thursday’s Asian session, after snapping a four-day uptrend the previous day. The recent challenges to the major economies, as perceived from the latest downbeat statistics from the United States, China, Australia, Europe and the UK, renew recession fears and weigh on the AUD/USD price. Adding strength to the economic pessimism are the concerns surrounding higher interest rates from the top-tier central banks, especially after the latest hawkish surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada (BoC). That said, China’s headline Trade Balance deteriorates to $65.81 billion versus the $92.0 billion expected and $90.21 billion previous readings. That said, the Exports and Imports came in mixed with the former falling past -0.4% expected and 8.5% previous readings to -7.5% YoY whereas the latter improves to 2.3% from -0.8% market forecasts and 4.2% prior. On the other hand, Aussie Q1 GDP rose 0.2% QoQ compared to 0.5% previous readings and 0.3% market forecasts. On the same line, the yearly GDP came in as 2.3% versus the analysts’ estimation of 2.4% YoY and 2.7% previous readings. Even so, RBA Governor Philip Lowe signaled further rate hikes from the Aussie central bank and propelled the five-day uptrend of the Aussie pair. That said, the policymaker said, “Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required, depending on how economy and inflation evolve.” It should be known that the RBA surprised markets for the second time in a row by announcing a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike on Tuesday. It should be noted that the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report, published Wednesday, mentioned, “The global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand.” While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed in the red whereas commodities and Antipodeans closed in the red. Further, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose the most in five weeks to 3.79% while the two-year counterpart marched to 4.52% at the latest. Looking forward, Australia Trade Balance for April and the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be eyed for clear directions. However, major attention should be given to the risk catalysts and the yields as the latest shift in the market’s sentiment weighs on the risk-barometer pair. Technical analysis AUD/USD portrays reversal from two downward-sloping resistance lines from February 02 and 14 respectively, currently around 0.6715 by the press time. The pullback moves join downbeat oscillators to direct Aussie bears toward the 21-DMA support of around 0.6610.  

Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 12.36%, below expectations (12.6%) in May

Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.43%, below expectations (0.64%) in May

As per the latest survey from the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), funded by the global quant giant KPMG, published early Thursday

As per the latest survey from the UK’s Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), funded by the global quant giant KPMG, published early Thursday, “Britain's labour market cooled further in May as starting salaries for permanent staff rose at the weakest pace in over two years.” It should be noted that the recruiters included in the survey are the ones being closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE) and hence the results appear more important for the GBP/USD pair traders. Also read: GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls are in the market but 1.2450s resistance could be tough Key findings REC said the number of permanent staff placements dropped last month at the sharpest rate since January 2021, as its gauge of demand for staff fell to a five-month low. The survey chimed with other gauges of the labour market that show it is now clearly loosening. REC's gauge of growth in starting salaries for permanent staff fell to its lowest level since April 2021, although it said this still represented ‘a historically sharp pace overall’. Elsewhere, another poll of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' (RICS) hints that measure of new buyer enquiries rose to a net balance of -18, the least negative figure since -14 in May 2022, and up from -34 in April, per Reuters.

NZD/USD bears occupy the driver’s seat as the Kiwi pair remains depressed at the weekly low surrounding 0.6030 amid early Asian session on Thursday, a

NZD/USD stays pressured at the lowest levels in a week.NZ Q1 Manufacturing Sales improved from prior but slide beneath upbeat forecasts.Clear downside break of one-week-old symmetrical triangle, bearish MACD signals suggest further fall in Kiwi price.RSI conditions suggest bottom-picking around yearly low marked in the last week.NZD/USD bears occupy the driver’s seat as the Kiwi pair remains depressed at the weekly low surrounding 0.6030 amid early Asian session on Thursday, after falling the most in a fortnight the previous day. In doing so, the Kiwi pair ignores the recently firmer New Zealand (NZ) data while paying more attention to the previous day’s downside break of a one-weeklong symmetrical triangle. That said, NZ Manufacturing Sales improves to -2.1% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 versus 3.9% expected and -4.7% prior. It should be noted that the heaviest bearish MACD signals in nearly two weeks join the aforementioned triangle breakdown to keep the NZD/USD bears hopeful. With this, the quote appears all set to prod the 0.6000 psychological magnet. However, the RSI (14) is below the 50.0 level and hence the yearly low marked in the last week around 0.5985 may offer opportunity to the counter-trend traders to take the risk. Should the quote fails to recover from 0.5985, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the early October 2022 top near 0.5815 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, NZD/USD recovery appears elusive unless the quote stays below the previously stated triangle formation’s bottom line, close to 0.6065 at the latest. Even so, the top of the triangle, near 0.6100, can act as an extra check for the bulls before giving them control. Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May 10-31 downturn, around 0.6180, will be the key to watch for the NZD/USD bulls. NZD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

AUD/JPY hovers at around the 93.20 area as the Asian session begins, following Wednesday’s session, which formed a doji after reaching new year-to-dat

AUD/JPY forms a doji at YTD highs, signaling a possible pause in the rally.Potential retracement could test the 91.89 support zone, an intersection of the 50% Fibonacci and Tenkan-Sen line.On the upside, surpassing the YTD high could push the pair towards 94.00, with a potential target at 95.00.AUD/JPY hovers at around the 93.20 area as the Asian session begins, following Wednesday’s session, which formed a doji after reaching new year-to-date (YTD) highs. However, a daily close below the June 6 high of 93.26 suggests buyers are losing control ahead of Thursday’s session. AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook AUD/JPY seems to pause its rally, as a doji emerged on Wednesday after hitting a new YTD high. However, in the medium term, the AUD/JPY is still upward biased but might pull back toward the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the Tenkan-Sen line at around 91.89. Further downside is expected, towards the next confluence, of the Kijun-Sen line and the 61.8% Fibo retracement at around 91.34/50, before resuming its uptrend. Conversely, a bullish continuation will witness the AUD/JPY exploding past the YTD high and testing the psychological level at 94.00. A breach of the latter will expose the November 16 daily high at 94.65, ahead of gaining traction and challenging the 95.00 figure. AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily chart  

United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance above forecasts (-38%) in May: Actual (-30%)

US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rise to the highest

US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rise to the highest levels in a week and justify the recently hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which in turn propel the yields. The same should have underpinned the US Dollar rebound but an absence of the Fed policymakers’ comments, due to the pre-FOMC blackout, joins a light calendar to restrict immediate USD moves. That said, interest rate futures suggest an increase in the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 25 basis points (bps) of rate hike in July, even as June rate hike concerns are minimal. It should be noted that the 5-year inflation expectations per the aforementioned calculations rise to the highest level in a week to around 2.15% by the press time whereas the 10-year counterpart rose for the third consecutive day to refresh weekly top near 2.21% at the latest. Given the US inflation expectations and upbeat US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar is likely to pick up bids. That said, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies, namely the US Dollar Index (DXY), remained sluggish on Wednesday, mildly offered around 104.10 at the latest. Also read: Forex Today: Another hawkish surprise shows inflation remains central bank’s main concern

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales came in at -2.1%, below expectations (3.9%) in 1Q

EUR/USD steadies within a one-week-old Pennant formation, near 1.0700 by the press time of early Thursday in Asia, as bulls and bears jostle amid fear

EUR/USD remains sidelined within trend continuation chart pattern.Sustained trading beyond five-month-old ascending support line lures Euro buyers.Looming bull cross on MACD, nearly oversold RSI signal EUR/USD’s further upside.Pennant’s top line, 100-DMA challenge Euro bulls before giving control.EUR/USD steadies within a one-week-old Pennant formation, near 1.0700 by the press time of early Thursday in Asia, as bulls and bears jostle amid fears of economic slowdown, higher rates and softer Eurozone data. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears ignore sluggish USD on mixed growth concerns, hawkish central banks That said, the Euro pair’s rebound from a five-month-old ascending support line joins the recently downbeat RSI (14) line, as well as an impending bull cross on the MACD, to keep the EUR/USD buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside break of the stated Pennant’s top line, currently around 1.0730, becomes necessary for the EUR/USD pair buyers to retake control. Even so, the 100-DMA hurdle of around 1.0810 can check the upside momentum ahead of directing the Euro price towards the mid-May swing high of near 1.0910. On a different page, the stated Pennant’s bottom line, close to 1.0670 by the press time, restricts the short-term downside of the EUR/USD, a break of which will drag the Euro pair to an upward-sloping support line from early January, near 1.0640. It’s worth noting that the previous monthly low of around 1.0635 acts as an extra check for the EUR/USD bears, past 1.0640, before directing them to the lows marked in March and January, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0480 in that order. EUR/USD: Daily chart Trend: Recovery expected  

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains bearish around the weekly low after snapping a two-day winning streak with a heavy loss to around $1,939 by the press tim

Gold Price braces for the weekly loss despite sluggish US Dollar, taking offers to poke weekly low of late.XAU/USD retreats as hawkish central bank actions, fears of higher rates join downbeat statistics from major economies.Growth figures from Japan, Eurozone and United States employment clues eyed for clear directions of the Gold Price.Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains bearish around the weekly low after snapping a two-day winning streak with a heavy loss to around $1,939 by the press time of early Thursday morning in Asia. In doing so, the precious metal bears the burden of the market’s fears of slowing economic growth and higher rates, as well as the firmer United States Treasury bond yields, even if the US Dollar remains sluggish. Gold Price suffers from fears of economic slowdown, higher rates Gold Price bears the burden of the recent challenges to the major economies, as perceived from the latest downbeat statistics from the United States, China, Europe and the UK. Adding strength to the economic pessimism are the fears of the higher interest rates from the top-tier central banks, especially after the latest hawkish surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada (BoC). “The global economy is set for a weak recovery over the coming years as persistent core inflation and tighter monetary policy weigh on demand,” per the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) report published Wednesday. The same raises doubts on the XAU/USD demand as China trade numbers trace the last week’s downbeat activity data while the German Industrial Production followed the previous day’s Factory Orders after marking the easy growth figure earlier. That said, the US activity numbers have been downeat and the Goods And Services Trade Balance also disappointed the previous day. Not only the growth fears but the concerns surrounding the higher rates amid sluggish economic transition also weigh on the Gold Price. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) surprised markets by announcing 25 basis points (bps) of increase to increase benchmark interest rate, to 4.75%, versus market expectations supporting no change in the previous rate of 4.50%. Earlier in the week, the RBA surprised markets for the second time in a row by announcing a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike. Elsewhere, market’s bets of the Fedearl Reserve’s 25 bps rate hike in July increased, even as the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to keep the rates unchanged. Even so, the OECD said, “(It) sees US Fed funds rate peaking at 5.25%-5.5% from Q2 2023, followed by two ‘modest’ cuts in H2 2024.” Rising yields weigh on the XAU/USD With the growth fears and hawkish central bank actions, as well as signals, the US Treasury bond yields rallied and weighed on the Gold Price the previous day. That said, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose the most in five weeks to 3.79% while the two-year counterpart marched to 4.52% at the latest. It should be noted that the looming fears of a $1.0 bond issuance by the United States Treasury Department, due to the debt-ceiling deal, also prods the markets sentiment and weigh on the bond price, as well as bolster the yields. The same exerts downside pressure on the Gold Price. While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed in the red whereas commodities and Antipodeans closed in the red. Looking forward, growth numbers from Japan and Europe will join the weekly US Jobless Claims to entertain the Gold traders but risk catalysts and the bond market moves will be crucial to watch for clear directions. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold Price breaks a one-week-old ascending support line while reversing the previous weekly gains. That said, the steady conditions of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14, join a looming bear cross on the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator to suggest further grinding of the XAU/USD towards the south. With a clear downside break of the aforementioned support line, now resistance near $1,943, the Gold Price confirms a fall toward the monthly, as well as the yearly low, marked in the last week around $1,932. In a case where the XAU/USD remains bearish past $1,932, the odds of witnessing a fall towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of May 10 to June 02 moves, near $1,910, can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the Gold Price recovery remains elusive unless the quote crosses the three-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,985, quickly followed by the 200-SMA level of around $1,987. That said, the support-turned-resistance line restricts immediate upside near $1,943. Even if the XAU/USD crosses the $1,987 hurdle, the $2,000 psychological magnet will be crucial for the Gold buyers to surpass to tighten the grip. Gold Price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

GBP/JPY prints minuscule gains, with buyers eyeing a test of the year-to-date (YTD) high at 174.68 as the Asian session begins. On Wednesday, the GBP/

GBP/JPY sees a bullish continuation, testing the year-to-date high amid a weaker JPY and BoE tightening expectations.A move past the YTD high could propel the pair toward the 175.00 supply zone and possibly a seven-year high.Potential correction below the Tenkan-Sen line could hit support at 172.66 and drop towards the Kijun-Sen line at 171.26.GBP/JPY prints minuscule gains, with buyers eyeing a test of the year-to-date (YTD) high at 174.68 as the Asian session begins. On Wednesday, the GBP/JPY pair finished with gains of 0.42%, bolstered by a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, expectations for further tightening by the Bank of England (BoE) underpinned the Pound Sterling (GBP). Hence, the GBP/JPY exchanges hand at 174.28. GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook GBP/JPY is set for a bullish continuation, as shown by the daily time frame. As the pair closes into the YTD high, price action turns choppy, which could open the door for a reversal, as the Tenkan-Sen line, at 173.59, is the closest to the current price action. If GBP/JPY extends its gains past the YTD high, the next supply zone would be 175.00. A rally above that level could pave the way for the GBP/JPY to hit seven-year new highs and test the 2016 yearly high at 177.37. Conversely, a fall below the Tenkan-Sen line and the GBP/JPY might correct lower. First, support would be found at the weekly low of 172.66. A breach of the latter will expose 2022 yearly high shifted support at 172.13, ahead of falling toward the 172.00 figure. Downside risks lie beneath that level, with the Kijun-Sen line at 171.26. GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily chart  

West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude oil ended higher on Wednesday as a report showed an unexpected drop in US inventories while China's imports rose l

WTI bulls looking to engage in anticipation of a bullish continuation. Daily inverse H&S is a compelling feature on the charts. West Texas Intermediate, WTI, crude oil ended higher on Wednesday as a report showed an unexpected drop in US inventories while China's imports rose last month. Nevertheless, the bulls remain in good stead as per the following technical analysis: WTI daily chart We have an inverse head and shoulders which is bullish.  Pulling the chart across to see the impulse correction and what could now be another bullish impulse in the making, we can see that the market is supported at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This too is bullish.  WTI H4 chart The 4-hour chart shows the price has breached prior resistance that could now well act as a support on the pullback. Bulls could be encouraged to enter the market in anticipation of a bullish continuation.

USD/CHF bounces off the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and threatens to claim the 0.9100 figure late after Wall Street closed. The US Dollar

USD/CHF shows bullish momentum, targeting the 0.9100 mark with 0.27% gains.RSI and three-day RoC indicators suggest bullish dominance despite sideways movement.Overcoming the 0.9120 hurdles could steer the USD/CHF toward the 0.9147 and 0.9200 landmarks.USD/CHF bounces off the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and threatens to claim the 0.9100 figure late after Wall Street closed. The US Dollar (USD), propelled by risk aversion, helped the USD/CHF to Regusters solid gains of 0.27%. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9090 after hitting a low of 0.9043. USD/CHF Price Analysis: Technical outlook From the USD/CHF daily chart perspective, the pair is neutrally biased, consolidated within the limits of solid support found around the 20- and 50-day EMAs, each at 0.9036 and 0.9040) and resistance at the 100-day EMA at 0.9123. Although price action remains sideways, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bulls are in charge, further cemented by the three-day Rate of Change (RoC). Hence, the USD/CHF path of least resistance is upwards. Of note, the Average True Range (ATR) suggests that volatility in the pair could lean up to 60 pips. Dialing into the USD/CHF hourly chart, price action remains sideways, though it broke above a resistance trendline late in the New York session, exacerbating a rally above 0.9100. However, buyers must reclaim the weekly high of 0.9120, so they can pose a threat toward the last week’s high of 0.9128. The breach of those levels will pave the way towards the R1 daily pivot at 0.9147, ahead of challenging the 0.9200 figure. Conversely, a fall below the daily pivot at 0.9083 could open the door towards the EMAs at around 0.9074/76, followed by the 200-EMA at 0.9065. USD/CHF Price Action – Hourly chart  

The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a rate hike on Wednesday, following the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate increase on Tuesday. These developm

The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a rate hike on Wednesday, following the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate increase on Tuesday. These developments come ahead of a crucial week with meetings from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In terms of data for Thursday's Asian session, the highlights will be Japan's Q1 GDP. New Zealand will report Q1 Manufacturing Sales and Australia, trade data. Later in the day, the Eurozone's GDP and employment figures will be released, along with the weekly US Jobless Claims report.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 8:The Canadian Dollar outperformed on Wednesday following the Bank of Canada's surprise rate hike. Against expectations, the central bank raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, citing persistent excess demand and increasing concerns that inflation could "get stuck" materially above the target. This decision follows the Reserve Bank of Australia's hike on Tuesday, which also exceeded economic consensus. In the upcoming week, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will have their own monetary policy meetings. The Fed remains in its blackout period, preventing markets from hearing any official comments. Recent data shows a weakening in the manufacturing sector, though there are no imminent signs of a recession. All eyes are now on the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday, which is expected to be a key determinant for the Fed’s decision.  Analysts at Wells Fargo commented on the US economic outlook:  We still expect the delayed effects of monetary tightening and tighter credit availability to dampen economic growth. However, the enduring strength of the labor market prompted upward adjustments to our forecast for employment, real disposable income and consumption, shifting the expected start of the downturn closer to the end of this year.  During Wednesday's American session, US Treasury yields surged as market participants pared back their bets for rate cuts by the Fed by the end of the year. However, the most likely scenario for next week's Fed meeting is that rates will remain unchanged. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 3.79%, the highest since May 29. Global government bond yields rose in response to another surprise rate hike, while equity prices on Wall Street posted mixed results. The VIX dropped to 13.90, the lowest level since February 2020, despite ongoing caution due to a gloomy global outlook and higher interest rates. With the debt ceiling drama now resolved, the Wall Street Journal is warning of a potential flood of over $1 trillion in Treasury bills that could trigger volatility across financial markets in the weeks ahead. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of disruption as this massive amount of new issuance hits the market. China reported weak trade data on Wednesday, with exports dropping 7.5% YoY in May against expectations of a 1.8% decline. This marks the first contraction in three months. Meanwhile, imports dropped 4.5% YoY, less than the 8.0% decline expected by the market consensus. These disappointing numbers add pressure on Chinese officials to provide more policy support, including rate cuts. The USD/CNH climbed to 7.15, the strongest level since November.EUR/USD continues to trade around 1.0700, moving sideways and stuck ahead of next week's central bank meetings. On Thursday, the Eurozone will release a new reading on Q1 GDP and Employment.GBP/USD approached the 1.2500 level before falling back to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the 1.2430 area, as the US dollar gained strength. A consolidation below 1.2400 would indicate potential for further losses in the pair. Rabobank’s GBP outlook:  The risk for GBP is that further progressive rate hikes from the Bank significantly undermines the recently improved growth outlook.  The line-up of UK fundamentals has already been poor for some time. The backdrop has been been characterised by high inflation, weak growth in addition to low investment and productivity.  The UK’s current deficit last year likely enhanced the vulnerability of the pound.  This has shrunk recently, which could afford GBP a little protection.  However, on the view that the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate story is set to support the USD into Q3, we see scope for cable to edge lower to GBP/USD1.22 on a 3 mth view. The Japanese Yen was hit by rising government bond yields. USD/JPY jumped from 139.00, surpassing 140.00. Japan will report Bank Lending, Trade data, and a new estimate of Q1 GDP. Also due is the Eco Watches Survey.USD/CAD tumbled to 1.3319 after the unexpected rate hike by the BoC. It then rebounded, trimming losses to stabilize at 1.3370/80. The crucial support area above 1.3300 remains firm. AUD/USD dropped after a four-day positive streak. The pair failed to hold above 0.6700. A relevant short-term support is located at 0.6640. The momentum that emerged from the hawkish RBA hike and Governor Lowe's comments faded amid cautious markets and a slide in commodity prices. Australia will report exports and imports on Thursday. NZD/USD dropped below 0.6050, posting the lowest daily close in a week. The 0.6000 psychological area is back on the radar. Despite new government appointments with more market-friendly names, the Turkish Lira remains under pressure. USD/TRY gained more than 7%, reaching fresh record highs above 23.00. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso hit its highest level since 2016, with USD/MXN falling to 17.30. Gold tumbled to $1,940 and is looking at May lows, affected by higher Treasury yields. Silver reversed after approaching $24.00, falling below $23.50. Crude oil prices rose more than 1% on the back of inventory data, despite rate hikes and trade data from China. The WTI barrel settled around $72.50. Cryptocurrencies weakened, with BTC/USD losing 2.25% to $26,360. Volatility still prevails after the Securities and Exchange Commission sued Coinbase on Tuesday and asked for a temporary restraining order to freeze assets tied to Binance on Monday.    Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:Rate this content (function() { var qs,js,q,s,d=document, gi=d.getElementById, ce=d.createElement, gt=d.getElementsByTagName, id="typef_orm_share", b="https://embed.typeform.com/"; if(!gi.call(d,id)){ js=ce.call(d,"script"); js.id=id; js.src=b+"embed.js"; q=gt.call(d,"script")[0]; q.parentNode.insertBefore(js,q) } })()
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