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화요일, 5월 18, 2021

The USD/INR pair seems to hold the lower ground in early dealings on Tuesday. The pair follows the previous day’s sluggish move within a narrow trade

USD/INR makes cautious moves in the Asian session.The pair awaits a confirmation on the daily chart before any directional move.Bearish MACD favors the downside momentum.The USD/INR pair seems to hold the lower ground in early dealings on Tuesday. The pair follows the previous day’s sluggish move within a narrow trade band for the time being. The pair is under continuous selling pressure following the April 21 high at 75.63 and witness heavy price correction. USD/INR daily chart On the daily chart, the USD/INR pair is hovering  in the vicinity of the previous day’s closing at 73.26. The mentioned price level is seen as a critical level with the formation of multiple bottoms in the 73.20 area. If the price takes the consideration of the multi support as stated above, then it would seek the first upside target at the May 11 high at 73.52. The descending trendline from the highs of 75.63 acts as a defense for the USD/INR bulls.  A break above the trend line would prompt fresh buying opportunities towards the 73.95 horizontal resistance level, which would provide additional strength to the bulls to take over the April 30 high at 74.22. On the flip side, if the price sustains below the 73.20 level, then it could touch the levels last seen in March, with the first stop at the March 31 low at 73.09. It could further retest the March 30 low  at 72.73. The negative Moving Average Convergence (MACD) indicator could help bring the 72.50 horizontal support level back into the picture.
  USD/INR Additional Levels  

EUR/USD posts mild gains around 1.2165, up 0.11% intraday, after an initial uptick to refresh the weekly top ahead of Tuesday’s European session. Alth

EUR/USD refreshes weekly top, stays on the front foot for fourth consecutive day.Vaccine optimism extends US dollar weakness amid a light calendar.Eurozone GDP could justify European Commission’s upbeat forecast.ECB President Lagarde may add to vaccine news, economic recovery hopes.EUR/USD posts mild gains around 1.2165, up 0.11% intraday, after an initial uptick to refresh the weekly top ahead of Tuesday’s European session. Although the broad US dollar selling, amid risk-on mood, favors the bulls, the currency major pair awaits second readings of Eurozone Q1 GDP and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for fresh impulse. Vaccine news propels greenback’s weakness … Optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine could be cited as the major reason for the latest risk-on mood, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the US dollar. That said, the US dollar index (DXY) refreshed a one-week low before recently taking rounds to 90.10, down 0.15% on a day. US President Joe Biden is up, for the first time, to share the American authorized covid vaccine, around 20 million doses, with the nations in need. On the same line is China’s support for the global drive to abandon vaccine patents and fasten the cure’s production. Further, updates that COVID-19 jabs from Moderna and Pfizer are capable of taming the Indian variant of the virus offer extra support to the market bulls. Other than the vaccine news, the US push for peace in Gaza and an absence of key data in Asia allow the markets to consolidate the previous day’s losses. Amid these plays, stock futures are mildly bid while the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firm around 1.65%. It’s worth mentioning that better-than-forecast US data and the Fed policymakers’ sustained rejection to the need for tapering, except for Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, weighed on the greenback the previous day. Looking forward, the EUR/USD pair traders will seek confirmation of the European Commission’s (EC) upbeat GDP forecasts, 4.3% for 2021, to keep the bulls hopeful. “The second estimate of Q1 GDP will provide more information around the contributions to output (market f/c: -0.6%qtr, -1.8%yr),” said Westpac. Also, traders may hear ECB’s Lagarde more closely amid vaccine jitters with Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson. Technical analysis Not only Monday’s top near 1.2170 but multiple resistances since late January stand tall to test the EUR/USD bulls around 1.2180-90. Meanwhile, the 1.2100 threshold can entertain short-term sellers ahead of challenging the EUR/USD bears with a 1.2085-80 support confluence comprising 21-day SMA and an ascending support line from March 31.  

Australia Treasury Sec. Kennedy: Economic recovery is stronger than in many other countries more to come ....

The Australian Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy offered optimistic remarks on the economic recovery, in his scheduled speech on Tuesday. Key quotes “Australia’s economic recovery is stronger than in many other countries.” “Iiron ore price is a key uncertainty for the outlook for the Australian economy.”  more to come ....

Amid a series of support measures announced on Tuesday, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s state planner, said t

Amid a series of support measures announced on Tuesday, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s state planner, said that Australia should stop the wrong action of interfering in with bilateral trade. Additional takeaways “Australia should take responsibility for the suspension of bilateral economic dialogue mechanism. “ “Hopes Australia will treat Chinese companies fairly, sees cooperation in an objective and reasonable way.” “Approved 12 fixed-asset investment projects worth a total of 87.3 bln yuan in April. “ “Supports private firms to engage in debt to equity swaps, support them to issue bonds.” Market reaction AUD/USD is unperturbed by China’s comments, as it looks to recapture 0.7800 amid higher commodities prices and S&P 500 futures. Upbeat RBA minutes also help the aussie accumulate gains.

NZD/CAD is on the verge of a downside extension according to the recent price action and market structure across the 4-hour and daily time frames. The

NZD/CAD bears stepping in to challenge the bulls at key resistance. Bears target a downside continuation on the daily chart. NZD/CAD is on the verge of a downside extension according to the recent price action and market structure across the 4-hour and daily time frames. The following charts illustrate the downside bias on this basis: Daily chart The price has already been rejected by the resistance structure and is melting to the downside in what could turn out to be a fresh low into weekly support and prior lows. 4-hour chart Meanwhile, the 4-hour charts see the price retesting what was old support and bears will be seeking for a rejection to confirm the downside bias.  Weekly chart The bears are seeking to fill in the weekly wick and take on prior weekly lows.  

US dollar index (DXY) bounces off intraday low, rather weekly bottom, while picking up bids near 90.11 during early Tuesday. Even so, the greenback ga

DXY refreshes weekly low but defends 90.00 threshold.Yearly horizontal support tests sellers, confluence of seven-week-old resistance line, 21-day SMA restricts short-term upside.US dollar index (DXY) bounces off intraday low, rather weekly bottom, while picking up bids near 90.11 during early Tuesday. Even so, the greenback gauge remains 0.14% down on a day by the press time. Given the quote’s sustained weakness from the short-term SMA and key resistance line, DXY is on the way to re-test the yearly horizontal support near 90.00–89.95. It should, however, be noted that multiple supports can test DXY bears, also the likely oversold Momentum line, during the gauge’s further weakness below 89.95, a break of which will challenge February low near 89.70. On the contrary, 90.50 may entertain the intraday buyers in case of a corrective pullback ahead of highlighting the 90.75 resistance confluence. If at all DXY jumps above 90.75 on a daily closing basis, the monthly peak surrounding 91.45 will be in the spotlight. DXY daily chart Trend: Bearish  

S&P 500 Futures portray risk-on mood with 0.28% intraday gains, around 4,170, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer differs from the U

S&P 500 Futures ignore downbeat performance of US equities, take the bids of late.US President Biden prepared to send 20 million authorized covid jabs, China backs vaccine patent waiver.Kaplan reiterates need for tapering talk, still expects first rate hike in 2022.US data, Fedspeak keeps markets subdued ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.S&P 500 Futures portray risk-on mood with 0.28% intraday gains, around 4,170, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the risk barometer differs from the US equity benchmarks that flashed first negative daily performance in three the previous day. While checking the catalysts behind the move, optimism surrounding the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine could be cited as the major reason for the latest risk-on mood. US President Joe Biden is, for the first time, ready to share the American authorized covid vaccine, around 20 million doses, with the needy nations. Further, China backs the global drive to abandon vaccine patents and fasten cure production. Also, updates that COVID-19 jabs from Moderna and Pfizer are capable of taming the Indian variant of the virus offer extra support to the market bulls. Elsewhere, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan reiterated his push for tapering talks while also continues to expect the first rate hike in 2022. This contrasts with the Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s comments rejecting the need for policy adjustments. It’s worth mentioning that the US push for Israel-Palestine peace joins upbeat commodity prices to offer an extra hand to the market optimism. On the contrary, US-China tussles and the continuation of Gaza tension, as well as worsening virus conditions in Asia and reflation fears, tame the bulls. Amid these plays, the US Treasury yields pick-up bids and so do Asian stocks. However, the US dollar index (DXY) bears the burden of upbeat sentiment and drops to a fresh one-week low. Looking forward, a light calendar, outside Europe and the UK, can keep troubling market players ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Read: Wall Street Close: Inflation jitters offer a dull start to the week

GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4166 adding 40 pips on the day so far to trade 0.3% higher. Cable has travelled between a low of 1.4125 to a high of

GBP/USD is on the warpath as the US dollar loses traction and support of yields. Bulls target the 1.42 area in a break on the daily resistance.GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4166 adding 40 pips on the day so far to trade 0.3% higher. Cable has travelled between a low of 1.4125 to a high of 1.4174 while the greenback teeters near multi-month lows with Treasury yields stalling due. There are renewed expectations that US interest rates will remain low for an extended period after more Fed talk advocated for a lower-for-longer regime.  Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan on Monday reiterated his view that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year. Additionally, Federal Reserve's vice chairman Richard Clarida has said the Fed will respond to higher inflation should that be required. He, amongst others, have constantly insisted that now is not the time to start taper talk while employment remains deep in a hole. The US central bank will also release minutes from its most recent meeting, which will give traders a lot of hints about where monetary policy is headed this year. The market's thinking is that the central bank will tolerate what it sees as a temporary acceleration in inflation, which will keep the dollar lower against most major currencies. Domestically, sterling has been buoyed recently as investors continue to cheer the easing of strict coronavirus restrictions on economic activity. With that being said, a note from earlier in the UK's The Times warns that the UK's PM Boris Johnson may have to rethink social distancing relaxations if the Indian variant takes a hold.  GBP/USD technical analysis Meanwhile, as per the prior analysis, GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls looking for breakout to the topside, the bulls are indeed moving on with their plans to take down the daily highs in pursuit of the psychological 1.42 area. Prior GBP/USD analysis, daily and 4-hour time frames 'Nevertheless, the 4-hour chart is forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders formation and on completion, the bullish price action could well burst into life.''The right-hand shoulder of the bullish reverse head and shoulders is in the process of being formed. Bulls will want to see the price break the prior highs within this formation and hope for a discount on a retest of the structure before committing to the bullish thesis.'Progress update, 4-hour and daily charts    

The AUD/NZD cross remains subdued in the Asian session. The cross failed to react to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy meet

AUD/NZD remains defensive in the Asian session.Aussie on back foot after RBA minutes indicates no rate hikes until 2024.NZD remains stronger on a robust economic outlook.The AUD/NZD cross remains subdued in the Asian session. The cross failed to react to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy meeting minutes released on Tuesday. It seems the market already digested the note from the minutes. At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading 1.0765, down 0.10% on the day. The selling interest in the AUD keeps AUD/NZD off the track to confide in a narrow trade band between 1.0760 and 1.0770. The RBA minutes on Tuesday indicates that the economy is negatively skewed towards market risk. The ultra accommodative monetary policy will continue as full employment is a  top priority for the Central Bank as of now, despite the inflationary threat over rising commodity prices. Moving on, the ongoing trade hustle between Australia and China continues to haunt the aussie amid cancelled agreements and sharp statements against each other.  China is the biggest trading partner for both antipodeans. The recent spat is affecting the Australian dollar negatively across the board. On the other hand, Kiwi enjoyed rising commodity prices and a string of positive economic data, which keeps NZD a leg higher against the aussie. Business NZ performance of Service Index rose to 61.2 in April,  the highest reading since the survey began in 2007.  As per the Westpac, the New Zealand economy is expected to pick up this year on the back of strong commodity prices and a robust manufacturing sector. Domestic demand is the sole factor of the economic recovery in New Zealand backed by increased household spending, construction activities and lower than expected unemployment. It is worth noting that, S&P 500 Futures are trading higher at 4169 with 0.28% gains on Tuesday hinting at the risk-on mood in the market. A beneficial factor for the highly risk-sensitive Kiwi. 
  AUD/NZD Additional Levels  

NZD/USD refreshes intraday high while taking bids near 0.7235, up 0.47% on a day, during early Tuesday. The kiwi pair recently crossed 100-SMA amid th

NZD/USD extends 100-SMA breakout to refresh intraday top.Bullish MACD, risk-on mood directs bulls to short-term resistance line.200-SMA adds to the downside filter below triangle’s support.NZD/USD refreshes intraday high while taking bids near 0.7235, up 0.47% on a day, during early Tuesday. The kiwi pair recently crossed 100-SMA amid the risk-on mood and bullish MACD. The pair buyers are well-directed towards the resistance line a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, near 0.7250. However, any further upside beyond 0.7250 needs to cross the 0.7270 hurdle before targeting the monthly top of 0.7306. Also acting as the upside barrier is the January high close to 0.7315. Meanwhile, pullback moves should break the 100-SMA level of 0.7217 before convincing the NZD/USD sellers to attack the triangle’s support line near 0.7190. During the quote’s weakness below 0.7190, 200-SMA level of 0.7170 and the monthly low of 0.7115 will be in the spotlight. NZD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

AUD/USD stays well bid after an 18-pips jump to refresh intraday high with 0.7794, up 0.34% on a day near 0.7791 by the press time, during early Tuesd

AUD/USD jumps over 15 pips on RBA meeting minutes.RBA minutes keep rate hike away until 2024, cites readiness to alter bond buying, if needed, but not yield target.Market mood remains upbeat in Asia amid chatters over US mask mandate, vaccine patent waiver.Fed’s Kaplan flashed mixed signals but reiterates the need to talk tapering.AUD/USD stays well bid after an 18-pips jump to refresh intraday high with 0.7794, up 0.34% on a day near 0.7791 by the press time, during early Tuesday. The pair recently benefited from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy meeting minutes. Although the minute statement reiterated the RBA’s rejection to rate hikes before 2024, the Aussie central bank’s turning down on any yield curve alteration, even if needed, backed the AUD/USD bulls of late. Read: RBA Minutes: Aiming for wages to grow “sustainably” above 3% Other than the RBA minutes, the market’s upbeat mood also favored the AUD/USD upside. Trading sentiment improved after the US showed readiness to share more of its vaccines with the needy nations. “President Joe Biden will send at least 20 million more COVID-19 vaccine doses abroad by the end of June, marking the first time the United States is sharing vaccines authorized for domestic use,” said Reuters. Also on the same line could be China’s support to the global push for covid vaccine patent waiver. Additionally backing the risk-on mood, also the AUD/USD prices, could be New York’s end to mask mandate for vaccinated people. It should, however, be noted that the inflation jitters and uncertainty over the Fed’s next move, coupled with the RBA’s indecision, keep market sentiment pressured and tame the AUD/USD bulls time-to-time. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.25% and Australia’s ASX 200 is up 0.50% by the press time. Further, the US dollar index (DXY) remains depressed and the 10-year Treasury yield gains 1.5 basis points (bps) to 1.65% while writing. Given the latest risk-on mood offering tailwind to the AUD/USD upside, the pair needs clarity over relfation and the Fed’s next moves for fresh impulse. Hence, Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes will be the key to follow. Technical analysis Multiple tops marked during mid-April highlight 0.7760 as immediate support. However, AUD/USD remains sideways unless crossing the 0.7820-0.7710 region. Wherein the multiple tops marked since January defines the range resistance while a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMA portrays the 0.7720-10 support area.  

The Reserve Bank of Australia has released the Minutes of the May Board meeting where the market's focus is on commentary around QE and Yield Curve Co

The Reserve Bank of Australia has released the Minutes of the May Board meeting where the market's focus is on commentary around QE and Yield Curve Control. Note, that the RBA left its key rates at 0.1% for a fifth straight meeting this month and reiterated it would not hike until actual inflation was within its 2-3% target band. The Minutes state that ''Australia’s central bank wants annual wage growth to more than double to its highest in over a decade to meet its inflation goals, a tough task that underlines how long rates could remain near zero,'' Reuters noted. Key take-aways ''Minutes of its May policy meeting showed the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board believed wages would likely need to expand by "sustainably above 3%" to generate inflation. Wage growth is currently running at just 1.4%, compared with 2% in Europe and nearly 3% for the United States.'' ''First-quarter wage price index data is due on Wednesday and are expected to show growth stuck around 1.4%.'' ''The RBA sees that as unlikely to occur before 2024, at the earliest, given core inflation was currently at an all time low of 1.2%.'' “Future policy decisions would be based on close attention to the flow of economic data and conditions in financial markets in Australia,” the minutes showed. RBA MINUTES: CONDITIONS FOR RATE RISE CONSIDERED UNLIKELY UNTIL 2024 AT EARLIEST 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: NO RATE RISE UNTIL ACTUAL INFLATION SUSTAINABLY IN 2-3% TARGET BAND 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: BOARD WILLING TO EXTEND BOND BUYING IF NEEDED, NO NEED TO CHANGE YIELD TARGET 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: TO DECIDE IN JULY WHETHER TO ROLL OVER TO NOV 2024 BOND, EXTEND BOND BUYING 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: RETURN TO FULL EMPLOYMENT A HIGH PRIORITY FOR MONETARY POLICY 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: POLICY TO REMAIN HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE FOR SOME TIME YET 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: MONETARY POLICY HELPING KEEP A$ IN A NARROW RANGE DESPITE RISING COMMODITY PRICES 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: UNEMPLOYMENT SEEN AT 4.5% BY MID-2023, TO PUT ONLY MODEST UPWARD PRESSURE ON WAGES 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: WAGE GROWTH WOULD NEED TO BE "SUSTAINABLY" ABOVE 3% TO MEET INFLATION TARGET 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: PUBLIC SECTOR WAGE POLICIES TO RESTRAIN OVERALL WAGE GROWTH IN ECONOMY 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: INFLATION PRESSURES SUBDUED IN MOST PARTS OF ECONOMY, TO INCREASE ONLY GRADUALLY 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: IMPORTANT TO MAINTAIN HOME LENDING STANDARDS AMID RISING HOUSE PRICES, STRONG DEMAND 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: FEW SIGNS MAJOR MINERS PLANNING TO EXPAND INVESTMENT IN IRON ORE OUTPUT IN RESPONSE TO PRICE SURGE 17-May-2021 19:30:01 - RBA: DISRUPTIONS TO GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT THAN REALISED, ADDING TO INFLATION   AUD/USD technical analysis Given that the board will not decide whether to extend current policies until the July meeting, there was little reaction to the Minutes today. Meanwhile, weaker risk appetite kept the pressure on AUD at the start of this week and offshore equities remain the key driver for the currency. From a technical standpoint, the focus is on the upside from the daily chart perspective: About the RBA Minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.4357 vs last close of 6.4394. About the fix China maintains stric

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.4357 vs last close of 6.4394. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. CNY differs from its offshore yuan, or CNH, which is not as tightly controlled as the onshore yuan. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.  

EUR/JPY reverses the early Asian losses while picking up bids around 132.80 during Tuesday. In doing so, the quote remains above a horizontal area com

EUR/JPY keeps bounce off one-week-old horizontal support, picks up bids of late.Strong RSI, sustained trading above 200-HMA favor buyers.EUR/JPY reverses the early Asian losses while picking up bids around 132.80 during Tuesday. In doing so, the quote remains above a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since May 10, as well as 200-HMA, amid upbeat RSI conditions. As a result, EUR/JPY bulls are up for another battle with a short-term resistance line near the 133.00 threshold to refresh the 32-month top flashed the previous day. However, highs marked during September and April 2018, respectively around 133.15 and 133.45, could test the pair’s further upside. Alternatively, a downside break of the nearby horizontal support close to 132.50 will drag the quote to a 200-HMA level of 132.15. Should EUR/JPY sellers sneak in below 132.15, last week’s low near 131.65 should be in the spotlight. EUR/JPY hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

AUD/JPY price cross edges higher in the Asian session. While carrying the New York session’s gains, the cross opened higher and touched the session’s

AUD/JPY gathers momentum in the Asian session.Cross faces stiff resistance near 50-hour SMA.Bullish momentum oscillator tilts in favor of the bulls.AUD/JPY price cross edges higher in the Asian session. While carrying the New York session’s gains, the cross opened higher and touched the session’s high at 84.92. At the time of writing, AUD/JPY is trading at 84.92%, up 0.18% on the day
  AUD/JPY 4-hour chart On the 4-hour chart, the AUD/JPY cross is making efforts to cross above the 50-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 84.95. This also marks the breach of a key psychological mark, which would allow  AUD/JPY bulls to enjoy gains toward the May 17 high at 85.14. The AUD/JPY bulls remain defensive near the downward trendline  from the highs of 85.80/ The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is about to cross the midline with a bullish crossover. The reading supports the probability of higher price action converging at the 85.30 horizontal resistance level followed by the May 10 high at 85.80. Alternatively, If price reverses lower, then it could first test the 84.60 horizontal support level. It would entice the bears to try for the May 13 low in the vicinity of 84.30 range. A break below the above-mentioned level would intensify the selling pressure towards the next support level around the May 4 low of 83.93. 
  AUD/JPY Additional Levels  

EUR/GBP is on the verge of a downside extension that would be helped along by a bid in cable as per the prior analysis follows: GBP/USD Price Analysis

EUR/GBP bears seeking a break of near term support. A daily extension on the downside is on the cards of cable remains bid. EUR/GBP is on the verge of a downside extension that would be helped along by a bid in cable as per the prior analysis follows: GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls looking for breakout to the topside.  Prior GBP/USD analysis, daily and 4-hour time frames 'Nevertheless, the 4-hour chart is forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders formation and on completion, the bullish price action could well burst into life.''The right-hand shoulder of the bullish reverse head and shoulders is in the process of being formed. Bulls will want to see the price break the prior highs within this formation and hope for a discount on a retest of the structure before committing to the bullish thesis.'Live GBP/USD market, 4-hour and daily charts EUR/GBP daily chart EUR/GBP 4-hour chart The bears are chipping away at the near term support which is guarding a break to the downside. 

GBP/JPY takes the bids around 154.60, up 0.12% intraday, while rising to a fresh high in 39 months amid Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair recently jum

GBP/JPY prints three-day winning streak while refreshing to fresh high since February 2018.Japan’s Q1 GDP dropped below -1.2% forecast to -1.3% QoQ.S&P 500 Futures print mild risk-on mood despite inflation, covid jitters.UK jobs report will be the key amid chatters over Britain’s recovery.GBP/JPY takes the bids around 154.60, up 0.12% intraday, while rising to a fresh high in 39 months amid Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair recently jumped on downbeat Japan GDP data while mildly bid S&P 500 Futures also favored the quote’s run-up. The preliminary readings of Japan’s Q1 GDP slipped beneath -1.2% QoQ market consensus to -1.3% while the annualized readings dropped below -4.6% expected to -5.1%. Read: Japan GDP misses expctations by 0.1% QoQ It’s worth mentioning that Japan’s Nikkei 225 also joins S&P 500 Futures while portraying the mild risk-on mood. Also on the same line could be the US 10-year Treasury yields, up 1.4 basis points to 1.654% by the press time. While searching for catalysts, upbeat vaccine updates and the US readiness to share more of its jabs with the needy nations seem to provide a tailwind to the market sentiment. Also on the same line could be the hopes of further stimulus and China’s readiness to back the global push for patent waiver of covid vaccines. On the contrary, the UK government is troubled with a 76% jump in the Indian variant of covid since Thursday. The same push back the unlock plans for June 21 while also highlighting local lockdowns if needed. It should be noted that the Brexit jitters continue as UK’s negotiator David Frost said relations with the European Union (EU) will remain bumpy for a time. Looking forward, the UK’s Claimant Count for April and Unemployment Rate for three months to March will be the key to watch as markets expect no changes in the later figure of 4.9% while citing 25.6K forecast versus 10.1K prior for the former economic release. Given the downbeat expectations from the scheduled data, coupled with recent pessimism in Britain, GBP/JPY may have a tough time crossing the 155.00 immediate hurdle. Technical analysis Unless declining back below the previous week’s top surrounding 153.40-45, GBP/JPY is poised to challenge the 2018 peak surrounding 156.65. In doing so, January 2018 high near 156.10 may offer an intermediate halt. 

The GBP/USD pair is trading with a modest gain in the Asian session. The pair remains in a steady range following the previous two sessions, after tes

GBP/USD refreshes daily highs in the Asian session.Risk-aversion underpins the demand for the US dollar.Investors keep their eye on UK Claimant Count and US Housing data.The GBP/USD pair is trading with a modest gain in the Asian session. The pair remains in a steady range following the previous two sessions, after testing the daily lows at 1.4000 on May 13. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.4153, up 0.14% on the day.
The strength in cable, owing to the optimism on the reopening of the economy amid faster vaccination ahead of its counterparts, keeps the GBP/USD pair constructive near the higher levels. Indoor dining, cinemas, schools, and universities were back to normal. The ban on international flight was also lifted under phase 3 of the economic reopening plan on Monday. The economy is expected to show the effect of easing restrictions in the coming months. However, the UK PM Boris Jhonson remains concerned about the final unlocking phase scheduled for June 21 as the Indian corona variant takes hold in part of England. Moving on, the UK Brexit Minister, David Frost expressed his concerns over regulation between Northern Ireland and the rest of the US as well as the firms' finance issues with the EU. The Brexit chaos remains a pain area for the cable lately. On the other hand, the subdued tone around the US dollar amid lack of buying interest pressurized the US dollar index (DXY) at 90.20 near the multi-month low.  The disappointing retail sales data on Friday did not go over well with the market. Fed officials remain concerned over the uneven economic recovery and shrug off any inflationary pressure that aligned with the Fed’s commitment towards the ultra-easy monetary policy. 
As for now, investors turn their attention to the UK Claimant Count Change for April, Unemployment Rate, and Average earnings data . On US economic data, Building Permits and Housing Starts will be in focus to gauge the market sentiment.
  GBP/USD Additional Levels  

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held durin

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 01:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held during May. The RBA’s May month monetary policy meeting matched wide market forecasts of no rate change and an intact Quantitative Easing (QE). However, statements like “no rate hike until 2024” and doubts over inflation, as well as unemployment, weighed on the AUD/USD on the release. It should, however, be noted that the central bank’s signals to review monetary policy in July make today’s meeting minutes the key for AUD/USD traders. TD Securities considers the event as having importance while saying, The RBA's Minutes of the May meeting will be published. With the Bank publishing a new set of forecasts, we and the market will look for any shift in tone or bias that may provide a guide for how the Bank could act at its July meeting. The July meeting is when the Board will announce decisions on Yield Curve Control and QE. Westpac is on the same line and said, The RBA will publish the Minutes of the May Board Meeting. The focus will be on commentary around QE and Yield Curve Control, given that the Board will decide whether to extend these policies at the July meeting. How could the minutes affect AUD/USD? Although inflation concerns are in fashion and test RBA hawks, signals of extended QE and no change in yield curve control measures can help AUD/USD to remain directed towards the 0.7820 resistance. It should, however, be noted that the policymakers’ view on the revised economic forecasts, published earlier in the month, will also be the key for the bulls as the wide difference could derail the optimism. Technically, AUD/USD remains sideways unless crossing the 0.7820-0.7710 region. Wherein the multiple tops marked since January defines the range resistance while a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMA portrays the 0.7720-10 support area. Key Notes AUD/USD stays directed towards 0.7820 hurdle, RBA minutes in focus  AUD/USD Forecast: Neutral-to-bullish ahead of RBA Minutes About the RBA minutes The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

At the time of writing, the gold price is trading a touch higher in Asia by some 0.13% in XAU/USD. XAU/USD rose by 1.26% to $1,868.50 on Monday and ha

Gold is running into a wall of resistance on the longer time frames. Bears will be looking for a correction to restest the prior resistance. At the time of writing, the gold price is trading a touch higher in Asia by some 0.13% in XAU/USD. XAU/USD rose by 1.26% to $1,868.50 on Monday and has added a buck to reach a new cycle high of $1,869.71 on a cautious start to the week for global financial markets. Overnight, global equities were under pressure with bond yields edging higher making for a Goldilocks scenario for gold as markets fret over the US inflation story following last week's CPI beat. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman Richard Clarida has said the Fed will respond to higher inflation should that be required, but he and others, including Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, have constantly insisted that now is not the time to start taper talk while employment remains deep in a hole. We will see the minutes on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month. Investors will be on the lookout for more meat on the bone in the policymakers' outlook of an economic rebound and clues regarding their thinking about inflation spikes and the ongoing economic recovery. Money managers increased net length Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities explained that money managers ultimately increased their net length as the disappointing non-farm print catalyzed a round of algorithmic short-covering, helping prices to break out north of the $1800/oz range. ''At the same time, we've noted that the composition of gold flows is changing, highlighting that discretionary capital could once again be flowing into gold, but rising ETF flows alongside money manager positioning have since lent strength to this view — particularly as the "transitory" debate surrounding inflation gathers share of mind. Pick your poison, but the most plausible scenarios should all see gold prices ultimately firm.'' Gold technical analysis As per the prior analysis, Chart of the Week: Gold on the approach to $1,855, the price of gold has added to Friday's bullish close. Prior analysis, daily chart'From a daily perspective, the bulls are taking on the prior highs and closed Friday's session strongly bid.A run into the psychological $1,850 is on the cards with a -272% Fibo retracement of the prior correction coming in at $1,855.'Live market, daily chart Meanwhile, the  -272% Fibo retracements of the prior correction coming in at $1,855 were cleared with ease. In fact, we have seen a perfect touch of the -61.8% Fibo at the day’s highs. A correction is the most probable scenario at this juncture revealing a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the forthcoming sessions at $1,845.  In looking to the longer-term time frames, this also jives considering the market structure on the monthly chart as follows: While an upside continuation is still a possibility, the monthly supply zone could be a tough nut for the bulls to crack straight away.  Additional reading: Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD bulls eye $1,850 after regaining control

Silver eases to $28.23, up 0.28% intraday, while staying around three-month top during early Tuesday. The white metal refreshed monthly low after cros

Silver bulls catch a breather inside 15-pip trading range.Late February tops challenge further upside, pullback can aim for $27.95–85 support zone.Silver eases to $28.23, up 0.28% intraday, while staying around three-month top during early Tuesday. The white metal refreshed monthly low after crossing the $27.95-85 resistance area established since mid-February, now support. However, February 22-23 highs near $28.35 guard the commodity’s immediate upside amid bullish MACD. Given the quote’s sustained break of the key hurdle, coupled with the successful uptrend, portrayed by an ascending support line since March 31, silver is likely to cross the nearby resistance close to $28.35. Following that, the $29.00 may offer an intermediate halt before propelling the prices toward the yearly top near $30.00. Meanwhile, pullback moves below the $27.85 could drag the quote towards a $27.00 retest. Though, a confluence of the stated support line and 21-day SMA near $26.80 will be the tough nut to crack for silver sellers afterward. Silver daily chart Trend: Bullish  

USD/JPY takes the bids around 109.30, reversing the three-day losing streak on Japan’s Q1 GDP release during early Tuesday. Also backing the bulls cou

USD/JPY reverses early Asian losses amid downbeat Japan data, risk-on mood.Japan’s Preliminary reading of Q1 GDP drops -1.3% QoQ versus -1.2% forecast, +2.8% prior.S&P 500 Futures print mild gains even as risk sentiment dwindles amid covid, inflation jitters.Fed’s signals, reflation chatters will provide fresh impulse.USD/JPY takes the bids around 109.30, reversing the three-day losing streak on Japan’s Q1 GDP release during early Tuesday. Also backing the bulls could be the mildly positive market sentiment as well as a lack of negatives elsewhere. Japan’s Q1 GDP dropped more than -1.2% QOQ to -1.3% while the Annualized GDP figure slipped beneath -4.6% expected to -5.1% during early Tuesday. Read: Japan GDP misses expctations by 0.1% QoQ Although downbeat Japan data recently propelled USD/JPY, risk aversion weighs on the pair prices, due to its risk-barometer status. The market sentiment has been mixed of late as traders seek strong clues to justify the reflation fears while the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes keep testing the intermediate optimism, mainly emanating from the West. Also on the risk-negative side could be the headlines from Gaza suggesting further hardships in the Middle East as well as the US-China tension. Alternatively, the global push for the covid vaccine patent waiver and the US readiness to share more jabs with needy nations join the unlock announcements in the West to favor the optimists. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures consolidate the previous day’s losses while printing 0.16% intraday gains by the press time. However, the bulls need more clues to justify the latest run-up, which is in lack for Tuesday. As a result, the USD/JPY trades can extend the ongoing bearish trend unless any strong positive surprises pop up. Technical analysis A confluence of 10-day and 50-day SMA restricts the USD/JPY pair’s immediate downside around 109.10. Meanwhile, a sustained break of 109.70–80 region becomes necessary for the bulls to retake controls.  

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0.2%) in 1Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -5.1%, below expectations (-4.6%) in 1Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) below forecasts (-1.2%) in 1Q: Actual (-1.3%)

Japan's Gross Domestic Product has been released that was expected to contract -1.2% in Q1, due to the state of emergency constraining household activ

Japan's Gross Domestic Product has been released that was expected to contract -1.2% in Q1, due to the state of emergency constraining household activity over the quarter. The data arrived as follows: Japanese GDP SA (Q/Q) Q1: -1.3% (exp -1.2%; prev 2.8%). GDP Annualised (Q/Q) Q1: -5.1% (exp -4.6%Q; R prev 11.6%). More to come...     USD/JPY technical analysis As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bullish commitments tested at daily support, the price is ripening for an upside extension: USD/JPY daily chart 4-hour chart    

USD/CAD remains depressed around 1.2065, following a two-day south-run, amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fizzles the previou

USD/CAD fails to keep the bounce off 1.2061, struggles for direction after two-day downtrend.US dollar weakness supersedes WTI pullback, market sentiment remains sluggish.Risk catalysts remain the key amid a light calendar.USD/CAD remains depressed around 1.2065, following a two-day south-run, amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair fizzles the previous day’s corrective pullback from 1.2061 while extending losses amid mildly upbeat S&P 500 Futures. Market mood worsened on Monday after the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index rose past downbeat forecasts. The same weighed on the Wall Street benchmarks. However, the US dollar’s weakness and WTI strength favored USD/CAD sellers the previous day. The US dollar seems to look for fresh clues amid reflation and might have considered the recent easing of activity restrictions in the US to mark another daily loss. Canada’s key export item, WTI, on the other hand, seems to have benefited from the geopolitical tension emanating from the Middle East and the greenback’s weakness. It should be noted that the traders recently consolidate the previous day’s downbeat momentum while flashing mild gains of S&P 500 Futures, which in turn exert additional downside pressure on USD/CAD even as WTI eases above $66.00. Considering an absence of major data/events from either the US or Canada, USD/CAD pair traders should observe risk catalysts and the US dollar moves. Among the risk headlines, inflation and the coronavirus (COVID-19) become the key. Technical analysis Given the USD/CAD pair’s failures to cross 1.2200 during the last week’s recovery moves, sellers seem prepared to refresh the multi-month low, marked on May 12, while targeting the 1.2000 psychological magnet.  

GBP/CHF is on the bid and would be expected to extend higher to test deeper into the weekly resistance. The following illustrates the bullish bias and

GBP/CHF meeting weekly resistance as bulls seek daily chart bullish continuation.  Cable bulls to help GBP/CHF along and to test weekly resistance. GBP/CHF is on the bid and would be expected to extend higher to test deeper into the weekly resistance. The following illustrates the bullish bias and where cable could be the catalyst for a daily bullish continuation in the cross.   Weekly chart While there is room to go on the upside into deeper resistance territory, the price can easily be rejected at this juncture. This would see the bears take control in a downside continuation following this meanwhile correction.  Daily chart With that being said, the daily time frame is conflicting following a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a subsequent re-run of the upside.  Bulls can also take solace in GBP/USD's bullish advance and bias as per the prior analysis, GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bulls looking for breakout to the topside.  Prior GBP/USD analysis, daily and 4-hour time frames 'Nevertheless, the 4-hour chart is forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders formation and on completion, the bullish price action could well burst into life.''The right-hand shoulder of the bullish reverse head and shoulders is in the process of being formed. Bulls will want to see the price break the prior highs within this formation and hope for a discount on a retest of the structure before committing to the bullish thesis.'Live GBP/USD market, 4-hour and daily charts    

EUR/USD fades late Monday’s recovery moves while taking rounds to 1.2150 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the quote remains ins

EUR/USD trades indecisive after refreshing one-week high the previous day.Monday’s Doji, downbeat Momentum line favor sellers targeting 1.2085-80 support confluence.Four-month-old horizontal resistance acts as the key upside barrier.EUR/USD fades late Monday’s recovery moves while taking rounds to 1.2150 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the quote remains inside the 110-pip trading range but a Doji candlestick and downward sloping Momentum line favor sellers. It should, however, be noted that the major currency pair needs to stay below 1.2170 to justify the bearish formation. Though, a run-up beyond the 1.2170 hurdle will have a limited upside as multiple resistances since late January stand tall to test the EUR/USD bulls around 1.2180-90. Even if the EUR/USD prices rally beyond 1.2190, the 1.2200 and February’s high near 1.2245 will be the key to watch. Meanwhile, the 1.2100 threshold can entertain short-term sellers ahead of challenging the EUR/USD bears with a 1.2085-80 support confluence comprising 21-day SMA and an ascending support line from March 31. Should the quote drops below 1.2080, the 1.2000 round-figure may stop further downside, if not then the monthly low near 1.1985 can act as an extra downside filter. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

NZD/USD wobbles around 0.7210, following a downbeat start to the week, amid an early Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the kiwi pair justifies th

NZD/USD consolidates the previous day’s losses in a 10-pip trading range.Market sentiment remains sluggish amid inflation jitters.RBA minutes, risk catalysts can offer immediate direction.NZD/USD wobbles around 0.7210, following a downbeat start to the week, amid an early Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the kiwi pair justifies the market’s indecisive stance, mainly led by inflation concerns. Despite positing upbeat New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for April, -97.4% versus -98.6% prior, not to forget the broad US dollar weakness, the NZD/USD pair dropped on Monday for the first time in the previous three days. The reason could be traced to the sluggish market sentiment as well as downbeat geopolitical and trade updates. US dollar index (DXY) remained pressured around a three-month low after the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for May beat the 23.9 forecast with 24.3 figures and renewed reflation concerns. The mood also ignored comments from Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida who again pushed for no tapering. On the other hand, China criticized the US for the United Nations (UN) inability to meddle in the Gaza tussles. Following that America defended Israel while saying that the nation has the rights to defend itself. It’s worth mentioning that the fears of Indian variant of covid gain momentum in the West while Asian struggles with the virus woes. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed with mild losses and the US 10-year Treasury yields gained 1.7 basis points (bps) to 1.65%. Further, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.07% by the press time and justify the inflation jitters. Given the lack of major data/events at home, NZD/USD traders should rely on the trans-Tasman event, RBA meeting minutes and risk catalysts, for fresh impulse. It should, however, be noted that the inflation concerns can keep the Kiwi pair pressured. Technical analysis A 100-pip symmetrical triangle between 0.7240 and 0.7140 restricts short-term NZD/USD moves wherein the 50-day SMA adds strength to the stated range’s support.  

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, global rating agency Moody’s came out with their analysis of the UK economy. “Sustained emigration from the UK (Aa3 sta

Early Tuesday morning in Asia, global rating agency Moody’s came out with their analysis of the UK economy. “Sustained emigration from the UK (Aa3 stable) would lead to labour shortages in some sectors, weaken growth potential and intensify fiscal challenges, Moody's Investors Service said in a report published today. Recent data suggests the UK's foreign-born population fell steeply in 2020, with London in particular seeing the largest outflows,” said the report. It was also mentioned that the sizeable government support measures will help to keep unemployment in check, as the economy recovers from the pandemic shock and the jobs-rich services sector slowly returns to normal. Market reaction… Earlier in the day, Times came out with the news suggesting that the British policymakers are considering plans for a local lockdown of delay in the unlock deadline, due to the spread of the Indian variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19).  However, neither the current news nor the previous one could affect the GBP/USD that awaits today’s UK jobs report for April. Read: GBP/USD rises above 1.4120 as the US dollar losses momentum

Late Monday, Reuters came out with the news suggesting US President Joe Biden pushes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. “Biden is facing growin

Late Monday, Reuters came out with the news suggesting US President Joe Biden pushes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. “Biden is facing growing pressure from lawmakers in his own Democratic Party to play a more vocal role, but U.S. officials say he and his team have opted for a quieter effort, talking with Israeli officials and U.S. allies in the Arab world,” said the news. The report also mentioned, “The Biden administration has privately blamed the administration of Republican former President Donald Trump for breaking off communications with the Palestinian Authority in its zeal for a pro-Israel policy, believing that has contributed to instability.” The news signals that President Biden, in a call with Israel PM Netanyahu, reaffirms the Middle East nation’s right to defend itself. Market reaction… Oil prices paid a little heed to the news amid the search for fresh clues as inflation jitters and virus woes probe traders. Read: WTI bulls take charge, making prospects for a deeper test of breakout resistance zone

The USD/JPY pair erases part of its previous day’s losses and trades steady in the early Asian session. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is tr

USD/JPY opens on a positive note in the early Asian session.Likely to see uptrend if price stays above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.Neutral MACD asks for a wait-and-watch approach before placing any aggressive bids.The USD/JPY pair erases part of its previous day’s losses and trades steady in the early Asian session. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading at 109.21, up 0.01% on the day. USD/JPY 4-hour chart On the 4-hour chart, the pair has been accumulating gains in the vicinity of the previous day’s close at 109.21. The formation of the Doji candlestick suggests that market participants remain indecisive about the direction of price movements, and wait for a confirmation before placing any directional bet. The pair respects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 109.10, which t is drawn from the May 7th lows at 108.33. If price makes a sustained move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, then it has the potential to crawl back to the 20-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 109.41, creating a path to Thursday’s high at 109.78. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reads above the midline, with receding bullish momentum. Any uptick could invite USD/JPY to test the horizontal resistance level at 110. Alternatively, if price breaks the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 109.10 decisively, then it could open the gates for 108.80 at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which would also mark the reversal of the prevailing trend. If USD/JPY continues down this trend, price would navigate to the 108.50 horizontal support level, followed by the April 27 low at 108.08.  USD/JPY Additional Levels  

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan forecasts on Monday that the US GDP for 2021 will growth by 6.4% while the Unemployment rate to dr

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan forecasts on Monday that the US GDP for 2021 will growth by 6.4% while the Unemployment rate to drift down to 4.0%. more to come.

Given the ragging fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) Indian variant spread in the UK, the British ministers are up for altering their June 21 unlock

Given the ragging fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) Indian variant spread in the UK, the British ministers are up for altering their June 21 unlock deadline, per Times. The news report mentioned two options, either contingency local lockdowns or delay reopening, as a part of the UK’s efforts to avoid the fourth wave of the deadly virus. “Officials have drawn up plans modeled on the tier 4 restrictions introduced last year,” said Times. UK PM Boris Johnson considers local lockdown as ‘the last resort’ in the event that other measures, such as testing and increasing the level of vaccinations in the worst-hit area, are not successful,” added the report. The Times also said, “The Indian variant is the dominant strain of the coronavirus in Bolton and Blackburn and has spread to 86 areas across the country. The number of confirmed cases has risen by 76% since Thursday to 2,323.” In a separate report, Financial Times (FT) marked the British Ministers’ split over the post-Brexit trade deal with Australia. “Cabinet worried about political fallout and backlash from agriculture sector if the UK grants tariff-free access to farming produce,” said the news. FX reaction Amid these plays, GBP/USD pause the previous two-day run-up around 1.4140 while looking for fresh clues from the UK employment report. Read: GBP/USD rises above 1.4120 as the US dollar losses momentum

US shares began the week on a back foot as Wall Street ends lower, mainly dragged by the technology sector, on Monday. Behind the moves could be the m

US equities snap two-day winning streak with mild losses.Inflation concerns beat technology shares, US data and Fedspeak confuse traders.AT&T said they will combine content assets of HBO and Warner Bros studios and Discovery Inc.Tesla’s Musk propelled Bitcoin moves while gold swirled up to fresh three-month top.US shares began the week on a back foot as Wall Street ends lower, mainly dragged by the technology sector, on Monday. Behind the moves could be the mixed play between the US data and Fedspeak, not to forget geopolitical risk emanating from the Middle East and consolidation of previous gains. Against this backdrop, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 0.16% or 54.34 points to mark its first negative day in three by closing around 34,327.79. Further, the S&P 500 stays on the line while declining 10.56 points or 0.25% to end the day near 4,163.29. Above all, the Nasdaq became the day’s biggest loser, even with 0.38% or 50.93 points of loss, while finishing the day’s trading at 13,379.05. Neither better than forecast US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, up from 23.9 market consensus to 24.3, nor Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s repeat comments could save the bulls as markets remain worried over inflation. The same weighed-down technology shares as reflation woes aren’t global and hence the mismatch troubles multinational companies. The inflation woes also backed the US Treasury yields to post 1.7 basis points (bps) of gains and dragged down the US dollar index (DXY) to a fresh three-month low, not to forget fueling gold to the highest since February 01. As a result, the US equities had extra catalysts to justify the latest weakness. Elsewhere, AT&T announced to keep all its content channels under one roof and dragged down the shares of underlying companies. “AT&T Inc, owner of HBO and Warner Bros studios, and Discovery Inc., home to lifestyle TV networks such as HGTV and TLC, said on Monday they will combine their content assets to create a standalone global entertainment and media business,” said Reuters. It’s worth mentioning that the cryptocurrencies remained volatile even as Tesla founder Elon Musk’s tweet defending their holdings propelled Bitcoin after the week-start slump. Looking forward, Walmart, Home Depot and Macy’s will report earnings on Tuesday and can entertain Wall Street traders.

AUD/USD steps back to 0.7760, following a bounce to revisit the week-start levels, during the early Tuesday morning in Asia. Despite a dull start to t

AUD/USD hangs in balance while carrying the bounce off 0.7730 to reverse early-Monday’s losses.US dollar weakness, gold run-up backed the bulls of late, market sentiment stay sluggish.Inflation concerns remain elevated amid mixed data from China, US and repeated Fedspeak.RBA minutes will be watched for July action hints, risk catalysts are also the key.AUD/USD steps back to 0.7760, following a bounce to revisit the week-start levels, during the early Tuesday morning in Asia. Despite a dull start to the week, amid no clear market direction and consolidation mode after Friday’s heavy optimism, US dollar weakness and gold’s run-up backed the pair buyers ahead of the key RBA meeting minutes. Though, recent challenges to trading sentiment seem to weigh on the quote. RBA vouches for July… Although Aussie data have been upbeat of late, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered inflation as subdued and preferred waiting until July to review the current monetary policy in the latest meeting. It should, however, be noted that the inflation problem also prevails in China and the US and hence July meeting will be interesting for AUD/USD while today’s minutes signal upside risk should Lowe & Co. reiterate their cautious optimism. Looking backward, the AUD/USD prices began the week mostly unchanged but lost upside momentum during early Monday after China flashed downbeat Retail Sales and Industrial Production growth. The geopolitical tension in Gaza and consolidation of the previous gains, not to forget chatters over the Aussie-China tussle, also magnified the pair’s weakness. However, the US session brought the greenback towards a fresh three-month low and recalled the AUD/USD buyers. A mixed play of the sluggish NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Fed policymakers’ sustained rejection of tapering talks seem to have triggered the US dollar index (DXY) drop, also likely fuelled gold prices to early February high. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the US 10-year Treasury yields gained 1.7 basis points (bps) to define the uninteresting day. Moving on, AUD/USD traders should take note of the headlines from Gaza and trade news as the US is pushing for peace between Israel and Palestine while the UK government is split over a trade deal with Australia. Above all, the RBA minutes will be the key event for AUD/USD in Asia. Technical analysis AUD/USD remains sideways unless crossing the 0.7820-0.7710 region. Wherein the multiple tops marked since January defines the range resistance while a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMA portrays the 0.7720-10 support area.  
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