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목요일, 5월 23, 2024

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains flat despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcing on Thursday that it left the Japanese government bonds (JGB) amounts unchanged compared to the previous operation.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen remains flat ahead of the US PMI release on Thursday.Japan's Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.5 in May from April's 49.6, suggesting the first expansion since May 2023.The US Dollar gained ground after the FOMC Minutes cast doubt on the Fed's willingness to proceed with rate cuts.The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains flat despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcing on Thursday that it left the Japanese government bonds (JGB) amounts unchanged compared to the previous operation. Over a month ago, the BoJ trimmed the amount of 5-10 years it bought in a scheduled operation. The JPY avoided to cheer the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from Japan that showed that private sector growth hit a nine-month high in May as manufacturing activity returned to expansion. The US Dollar (USD) remains slightly tepid ahead of the US PMI data due on Thursday. However, the Greenback gained ground on Wednesday, with the release of minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on Wednesday.Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have voiced worries regarding the slow progress on inflation, which has demonstrated greater persistence than initially anticipated at the beginning of 2024. Consequently, the Fed is cautious about moving forward with interest rate cuts. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen remains calm amid US PMI Tensions are escalating following Lai Ching-te's assumption of office as Taiwan's new president. Chinese state media reports indicate that China has deployed numerous fighter jets and conducted simulated strikes in specific areas in the region, including actions from naval vessels. Japan’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by Jibun Bank and S&P Global, rose to 50.5 in May from April’s 49.6, surpassing market expectations of 49.7. This marks the first growth since May 2023. Meanwhile, the Services PMI fell to 53.6 from the previous 54.3, still indicating the fastest expansion in eight months. On Wednesday, Japan's Merchandise Trade Balance showed that the trade deficit increased to ¥462.5 billion in April, swinging from the previous surplus of ¥387.0 billion. This outcome exceeded market expectations of a deficit of ¥339.5 billion. The deficit was mainly driven by the recent depreciation of the JPY, which led to an increase in the value of imports, outweighing gains from a rise in exports. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield surpassed 1% on Wednesday for the first time since May 2013, fueled by traders' increasing bets that the Bank of Japan would tighten policy further in 2024 According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has seen a slight downtick to 50.7%, compared to 51.6% a day ago. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins spoke at the event titled "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" on Tuesday. Collins stated that progress toward interest rate adjustment will take longer and emphasized that patience is the right policy for the Fed, per Reuters. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY remains above the level of 156.50 The USD/JPY pair trades around 156.70 on Thursday. A rising wedge on a daily chart indicates a bearish turn as the price of the USD/JPY pair moves toward the wedge’s tip. However, the momentum indicator 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still positioned slightly above the 50 mark. A further decline would be considered as the momentum shift. The USD/JPY pair could retest the upper boundary of the rising wedge near the psychological barrier at 157.00. A break above this level could propel the pair toward the recent high of 160.32. On the downside, the lower threshold of the rising wedge would act as immediate support, followed by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 155.49. A break below this level could exert downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair, potentially moving it toward the throwback support at 151.86. USD/JPY: Daily ChartJapanese Yen price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.03% -0.03% -0.07% -0.09% 0.02% -0.28% -0.06%EUR0.01%   -0.03% -0.05% -0.09% 0.04% -0.27% -0.06%GBP0.03% 0.01%   -0.02% -0.06% 0.06% -0.25% -0.03%CAD0.05% 0.02% 0.01%   -0.05% 0.07% -0.24% -0.02%AUD0.10% 0.07% 0.07% 0.03%   0.11% -0.19% 0.03%JPY-0.01% -0.03% -0.07% -0.07% -0.13%   -0.34% -0.10%NZD0.29% 0.27% 0.25% 0.24% 0.19% 0.30%   0.23%CHF0.07% 0.04% 0.03% 0.01% -0.03% 0.09% -0.21%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

India HSBC Services PMI increased to 61.4 in May from previous 60.8

India HSBC Manufacturing PMI down to 58.4 in May from previous 58.8

India HSBC Composite PMI rose from previous 61.5 to 61.7 in May

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) above expectations (2.6) in April: Actual (2.7)

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj down to -22 in May from previous -21

Indian Rupee (INR) struggles to gain ground on Thursday. The hawkish stance from the FOMC Minutes and the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers boosts the Greenback and creates a tailwind for the pair.

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Market players will keep an eye on the preliminary India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May on Thursday. Also, the first reading of the US S&P Global PMI will be due later in the day. In case the report shows a stronger-than-estimated reading, this might delay the timing of a rate cut cycle, underpinning the US Dollar (USD).  Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee weakens amid foreign outflows and the Fed’s hawkish stance Food prices remain high in India and may keep inflation elevated, according to the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest ‘state of the economy’ report. Foreign investors sold Indian equities worth more than $3 billion in May, the biggest monthly outflow since January 2023. The FOMC released the minutes of the April 30 - May 1 policy meeting on Wednesday, indicating that inflation in recent months had shown a lack of further progress toward the Fed’s 2% objective.” The Fed Policymakers are likely to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at least until September after their confidence in lowering price pressures was eroded by higher-than-expected inflation in the first three months of the year. Financial markets continue to adjust their expectations for rate cuts this year, with nearly a 60% chance of the first reduction in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Technical analysis: USD/INR’s positive stance seems fragile on the daily chart The Indian Rupee trades on a weaker note on the day. The USD/INR pair has formed the Head and Shoulders pattern since March 21. The bullish outlook of the pair seems vulnerable as the pair hovers around the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the neckline on the daily chart. A cross below this level will resume its downtrend, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding below the 50-midline.  

The 83.20–83.25 regions act as a crucial support level for USD/INR, portraying the confluence of the 100-day EMA and the neckline. A breach of this level will see a drop to the 83.00 psychological mark, followed by a low of January 15 at 82.78. 

On the bright side, the first upside target will emerge at the right shoulder of the Head and Shoulders pattern of 83.54 (high of May 13). A bullish breakout above the mentioned level would end up invalidating the chart pattern and see a rally to a high of April 17 at 83.72, en route to 84.00.   US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.04% -0.06% -0.08% -0.18% 0.01% -0.32% -0.08%EUR0.04%   -0.02% -0.02% -0.14% 0.06% -0.28% -0.05%GBP0.06% 0.03%   0.00% -0.12% 0.09% -0.25% -0.03%CAD0.06% 0.02% -0.01%   -0.12% 0.08% -0.26% -0.03%AUD0.19% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10%   0.19% -0.14% 0.09%JPY-0.01% -0.06% -0.10% -0.08% -0.20%   -0.35% -0.13%NZD0.32% 0.28% 0.26% 0.25% 0.14% 0.33%   0.24%CHF0.10% 0.05% 0.03% 0.03% -0.09% 0.11% -0.23%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

The Australian Dollar (AUD) halts its three-day losing streak on Thursday, possibly driven by the improved risk appetite.

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However, the Aussie Dollar came under pressure following the Consumer Inflation Expectation, released by the Melbourne Institute. Consumer expectations of future inflation over the next 12 months fell to 4.1% in May from 4.6% in April, marking the lowest level since October 2021. Australian private sector activity remained expansionary for the fourth straight month in May. The preliminary Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decreased to 52.6 in May from April’s reading of 53.0, indicating a slight moderation in growth. The growth was mainly fueled by an expansion in the services sector, while the decline in manufacturing output slowed down. The US Dollar (USD) remains strong following recent gains, as the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting were released on Wednesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers expressed concerns about the lack of progress on inflation, which has proven to be more persistent than expected at the start of 2024. As a result, the Fed is hesitant to proceed with interest rate cuts. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar inches higher due to risk-on mood The Judo Bank Australia Services PMI was 53.1 in May, down from April’s reading of 53.6. This marks the fourth consecutive month of expansion, albeit at a slower yet still solid pace. The Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 49.6 in May, indicating that manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate for the fourth consecutive month. The ASX 200 Index moves below 7,800 on Thursday due to declines in mining and energy stocks following a significant drop in commodity prices. Additionally, Australian shares were influenced by a weak performance on Wall Street overnight, after FOMC meeting minutes suggested concerns about the slow progress on inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis-point rate cut in September has seen a slight downtick to 50.7%, compared to 51.6% a day ago. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins spoke at the event titled "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" on Tuesday. Collins stated that progress toward interest rate adjustment will take longer and emphasized that patience is the right policy for the Fed, per Reuters. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that he needs to see several more months of favorable inflation data before he would be comfortable supporting an easing in policy. Minutes from the RBA meeting in May 2024 showed that the board considered raising rates but ultimately judged the case for maintaining a steady policy to be stronger. Policymakers agreed that it was challenging to either rule in or rule out future changes in the cash rate. They noted that the flow of data had increased the risk of inflation remaining above the target for an extended period. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains below a key level of 0.6650 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6620 on Thursday. The Analysis of the daily chart indicates a weakening of a bullish bias as the AUD/USD pair has breached below the lower boundary of the ascending triangle. Despite this, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the 50 level. However, a further decline in this momentum indicator could confirm a bearish bias. The psychological support level of 0.6600 is significant. A continued decline may increase pressure on the AUD/USD pair, potentially leading it toward the throwback support region at 0.6470. Conversely, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6639 could pose immediate resistance, followed by the major level of 0.6650. Breaking above the lower boundary of the ascending triangle could reinforce the prevailing bullish bias for the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.03% -0.04% -0.03% -0.07% 0.03% -0.18% -0.07%EUR0.03%   -0.01% 0.01% -0.04% 0.07% -0.14% -0.05%GBP0.04% 0.01%   0.02% -0.02% 0.06% -0.12% -0.04%CAD0.02% -0.01% -0.02%   -0.04% 0.06% -0.15% -0.06%AUD0.07% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04%   0.09% -0.11% -0.01%JPY-0.01% -0.05% -0.08% -0.04% -0.10%   -0.19% -0.10%NZD0.18% 0.14% 0.14% 0.16% 0.11% 0.20%   0.11%CHF0.09% 0.05% 0.05% 0.07% 0.02% 0.12% -0.09%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

New Zealand's (NZ) Finance Minister Nicola Willis said in a speech on Thursday that The (government's) deficit is expected to be larger next year than it is this year, before starting to improve." Additional quotes Treasury estimates structural operating deficit of around 1.5% of GDP in current financial year.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} New Zealand's (NZ) Finance Minister Nicola Willis said in a speech on Thursday that The (government's) deficit is expected to be larger next year than it is this year, before starting to improve." Additional quotes Treasury estimates structural operating deficit of around 1.5% of GDP in current financial year. Expect an uplift in capital funding in the budget. The NZ governemnt is set to release the release its budget and fiscal forecasts on May 30. Market reaction NZD/USD is defending 0.6100 despite the discouraging comments from the NZ official. The pair is up 0.20% on the day, as of writing.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

The NZD/USD pair gains momentum around 0.6108 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday.

NZD/USD trades in positive territory near 0.6108 in Thursday’s Asian session. The RBNZ’s hawkish hold has boosted the Kiwi. Fed minutes offered the cautious tine, indicating worries over the lack of progress on inflation.The NZD/USD pair gains momentum around 0.6108 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates steady and signaled the potential delay in interest rate cuts due to headwinds from sticky inflation. 

The RBNZ decided to keep the policy rate steady at 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row at its May meeting on Wednesday. The central bank noted in the statement that “the welcome decline in inflation in part reflects lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand. However, service inflation is receding slowly, and expected policy interest rate cuts continue to be delayed.” The RBNZ added that it expects inflation to ease within its target range by the end of 2024. The hawkish hold of the New Zealand central bank provides some support to the Kiwi and creates a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

On the USD’s front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) released the minutes of the April 30-May 1 policy meeting on Wednesday, indicating that inflation in recent months has been a lack of further progress toward the Fed’s 2 percent objective.” Investors continue to adjust their expectations for rate cuts this year, with nearly 60% odds of the first reduction in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The attention will shift to the advanced reading of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May. In the case of a stronger reading, this might lift the Greenback and cap the pair’s upside in the near term. 
  NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.611 Today Daily Change 0.0013 Today Daily Change % 0.21 Today daily open 0.6097   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6022 Daily SMA50 0.6003 Daily SMA100 0.6072 Daily SMA200 0.6042   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6153 Previous Daily Low 0.6083 Previous Weekly High 0.6146 Previous Weekly Low 0.5995 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6126 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.611 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6069 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6041 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5999 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6139 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6181 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6209    

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced on Thursday that it left the Japanese government bonds (JGB) amounts unchanged compared to the previous operation.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced on Thursday that it left the Japanese government bonds (JGB) amounts unchanged compared to the previous operation. Key details The BoJ offers to buy: JPY375 billion (bn) 1-3 Year. JPY425 bn 3-5 Year. JPY425 bn 5-10 Year.

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline on Wednesday. The further upside of the yellow metal might be limited, as the FOMC minutes were interpreted as significantly more hawkish than previous releases.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price trades with a negative bias on Thursday. The hawkish stance of the FOMC minutes from last month's meeting might cap the precious metal’s upside. Investors will focus on the first reading of US PMI data for May, due on Thursday.  Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline on Wednesday. The further upside of the yellow metal might be limited, as the FOMC minutes were interpreted as significantly more hawkish than previous releases. The cautious approach of the US Fed to hold its restrictive policy for longer boosts the Greenback broadly and exerts some selling pressure on the gold price. 

Gold traders will closely watch the preliminary reading of the US Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for May. A weaker reading might trigger hope for Fed rate cuts and support gold. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, uncertainties, and sticky inflation could support the precious metal and cap the downside in the near term. Apart from this, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and Fed’s Bostic will be in focus.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price remains sensitive to the Fed’s hawkish remarks The minutes from the recent policy meeting of the FOMC released Wednesday indicated that “participants observed that while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective.” The minutes further stated that “participants assessed that maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting was supported by data indicating continued solid economic growth.”  Investors have priced in nearly a 60% chance of the first cut to happen in September and two reductions of a quarter percentage point before the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The preliminary of US S&P Global Manufacturing and Service PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 50.0 and 51.3 in May, respectively.  The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been the largest buyer among its worldwide counterparts over the past year. Its addition of 225 tonnes to its gold reserves last year was the highest on record since at least 1977. Technical Analysis: Gold price keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart, eyes are on a Bearish DivergenceGold price trades softer on the day. The constructive view of the yellow metal remains intact as it is above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above the bullish zone near 56.10, supporting the buyers for the time being. Nonetheless, XAU/USD has formed a bearish divergence as the price has moved to an all-time high on May 20, but the RSI indicator has formed lower highs, suggesting the momentum is slowing and there will likely be a correction or consolidation in price in the near term.

The key resistance level for the precious metal will emerge near the the upper boundary of Bollinger Band and an all-time high of $2,450. A break above this level will expose the $2,500 psychological round mark. 

On the downside, a low of May 13 at $2,332 acts as an initial support level for gold. The additional downside filter to watch is the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at $2,270. A breach of the mentioned level will see a drop to the 100-period EMA of $2,216. US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the .  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.02% -0.01% 0.00% -0.02% 0.09% -0.12% 0.00%EUR0.02%   0.00% 0.03% -0.01% 0.12% -0.10% 0.01%GBP0.01% 0.00%   0.03% -0.01% 0.12% -0.10% 0.01%CAD-0.01% -0.03% -0.03%   -0.05% 0.09% -0.13% -0.02%AUD0.04% 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%   0.12% -0.09% 0.02%JPY-0.08% -0.10% -0.12% -0.07% -0.16%   -0.22% -0.10%NZD0.12% 0.10% 0.11% 0.13% 0.09% 0.20%   0.12%CHF0.02% -0.01% -0.01% 0.03% -0.02% 0.11% -0.11%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1098, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1077 and 7.2451 Reuters estimates.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 7.1098, as against the previous day's fix of 7.1077 and 7.2451 Reuters estimates.  

Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations dipped from previous 4.6% to 4.1% in May

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (3.5%)

Japan Jibun Bank Services PMI fell from previous 54.3 to 53.6 in May

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI above expectations (49.7) in May: Actual (50.5)

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Orr said on Thursday that the central bank can start to ease before inflation hits 2%, per Bloomberg.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Orr said on Thursday that the central bank can start to ease before inflation hits 2%, per Bloomberg. Key quotesAvoiding the risk of inflation expectations blowout.

Patience on inflation not exhausted.

Policy will not hinge on any single piece of data.

Can begin easing measures before inflation reaches 2%. Market reactionThe NZD/USD pair is trading higher by 0.04% on the day to trade at 0.6099, as of writing. RBNZ FAQs What is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment. How does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy influence the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. Why does the Reserve Bank of New Zealand care about employment? Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says. What is Quantitative Easing (QE)? In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.  

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.1%) in 1Q

Singapore Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.7%, above forecasts (2.5%) in 1Q

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks down to ¥248.1B in May 17 from previous ¥660.8B

The GBP/USD pair extends the rally near 1.2720 during the early Asian section on Thursday.

GBP/USD trades on a stronger note around 1.2720 in Thursday’s early Asian session. The FOMC Minutes showed the participants worried over the lack of progress on inflation towards its 2% target. The UK CPI rose by 2.3% YoY in April, compared to 3.2% in March, above the consensus of 2.1%. The GBP/USD pair extends the rally near 1.2720 during the early Asian section on Thursday. The uptick of the major pair is bolstered by the hotter-than-expected UK CPI inflation data, which slashed June rate cut bets from the Bank of England (BoE). Later in the day, the flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reports from the UK and US will be released. 

The minutes from the recent policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released Wednesday showed that the officials expressed more concern about inflation as it was more stubborn than expected to start in 2024, making the Fed lack the confidence to move forward on interest rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted last week that the Fed will “need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work” as inflation remains high. Investors see nearly 60% odds of first-rate cuts from the Fed in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

On the other hand, inflation in the UK cooled down less than expected in April, prompting investors to lower their bets on the BoE rate cut next month. The nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% YoY in April, compared to 3.2% in March. This figure registered the lowest level since July 2021, the Office for National Statistics reported Wednesday. The hotter UK CPI inflation boosts the Pound Sterling (GBP) and creates a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. The markets slashed the possibility of a BoE rate cut in June to just 18%, down from 50% on Tuesday. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.272 Today Daily Change 0.0011 Today Daily Change % 0.09 Today daily open 1.2709   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2569 Daily SMA50 1.2584 Daily SMA100 1.2633 Daily SMA200 1.2541   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2727 Previous Daily Low 1.2686 Previous Weekly High 1.2712 Previous Weekly Low 1.2509 Previous Monthly High 1.2709 Previous Monthly Low 1.23 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2711 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2702 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2688 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2667 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2647 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2729 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2748 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.277    

The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained steady at 49.6 in May from 49.6 in April, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The preliminary reading of Australia's Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained steady at 49.6 in May from 49.6 in April, the latest data published by Judo Bank and S&P Global showed on Thursday.

The Judo Bank Australian Services PMI dropped to 53.1 in May from the previous reading of 53.6, while the Composite PMI eased to 52.6 in May versus 53.0 prior.  Market reactionAt the press time, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.06% on the day to trade at 0.6623. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

EUR/USD knocked lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes revealed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are grimly determined to wait for more proof inflation will ease to 2%, sending risk appetite lower as rate-cut-hungry investors keep hoping for dovish signs from the US central bank.

EUR/USD declined on post-FOMC Greenback bid.Odds of a September rate cut are getting a second look from investors.EU & US PMIS in the barrel for Thursday.EUR/USD knocked lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes revealed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are grimly determined to wait for more proof inflation will ease to 2%, sending risk appetite lower as rate-cut-hungry investors keep hoping for dovish signs from the US central bank. While the FOMC’s latest Meeting Minutes didn’t rule out a September rate cut directly, investors are growing nervous that the Fed will not be able to find enough confirming data that inflation is making definitive progress to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target. Odds of a September quarter-point rate cut have eased to 60% according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.Read more: Fed Minutes leave the door open to a probable rate cut in SeptemberOn Thursday, pan-European Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data is expected to recover. The EU’s Manufacturing PMI in May is expected to climb to 46.2 from 45.7, while the Services PMI is expected to tick upwards slightly to 53.5 from 53.3. US PMI figures will follow during Thursday’s US market session, with both the Manufacturing and Services PMIs expected to hold steady at 50.0 and 51.3, respectively. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD has drifted below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0834, and the Fiber is battling to keep afloat of the 1.0820 level. The pair has eased back after a failed bull run at the 1.0900 handle. Daily candles are inching towards the 200-day EMA at 1.0802, and EUR/USD has closed in the red for three of the last four straight trading days. Despite a near-term bearish pullback, the pair is still up from the last major swing low into 1.0600 in mid-April. EUR/USD hourly chart EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0825 Today Daily Change -0.0029 Today Daily Change % -0.27 Today daily open 1.0854   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0774 Daily SMA50 1.078 Daily SMA100 1.0817 Daily SMA200 1.0789   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0875 Previous Daily Low 1.0843 Previous Weekly High 1.0895 Previous Weekly Low 1.0766 Previous Monthly High 1.0885 Previous Monthly Low 1.0601 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0855 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0862 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0839 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0825 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0807 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0871 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0889 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0903    

Australia Judo Bank Composite PMI declined to 52.6 in May from previous 53

Australia Judo Bank Services PMI: 53.1 (May) vs previous 53.6

Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI remains unchanged at 49.6 in May

New Zealand’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.5% QoQ in the first quarter of 2024 from the previous reading of a 1.8% fall, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} New Zealand’s Retail Sales, a measure of the country’s consumer spending, rose 0.5% QoQ in the first quarter of 2024 from the previous reading of a 1.8% fall, according to the official data published by Statistics New Zealand on Thursday. The figure came in better than market expectations with a decline of 0.3%.Market reactionThe New Zealand Dollar NZD) attracts some buyers following the upbeat Retail Sales data. The NZD/USD pair is up 0.09% on the day at 0.6102.  New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

New Zealand Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ) up to 0.4% in 1Q from previous -1.7%

New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) registered at 0.5% above expectations (-0.3%) in 1Q

The Australian Dollar registered losses against the US Dollar of 0.69% after the Federal Reserve hinted at raising rates if inflation warranted it, according to the latest meeting minutes.

AUD/USD tumbled more than 0.60% on Wednesday due to FOMC turning hawkish.Fed minutes hint at possible rate hikes if inflation risks increase, boosting US Treasury yields and the Dollar.Australian economic agenda includes Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs, showing mixed preliminary results for May.Upcoming US data: unemployment claims and S&P Global PMIs could influence AUD/USD.The Australian Dollar registered losses against the US Dollar of 0.69% after the Federal Reserve hinted at raising rates if inflation warranted it, according to the latest meeting minutes. Therefore, US Treasury yields edged up, while the Greenback rose more than 0.20%, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). As Thursday’s Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6618, down 0.03%. AUD/USD falls as Fed minutes suggest potential rate hikes, Australian PMI eyed US equities finished Wednesday mixed ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings release. Global bond yields rose after inflation in the UK dipped, but it was above estimates, diminishing the odds of the Bank of England lowering rates. Across the pond, the latest FOMC minutes revealed, "Various participants mentioned willingness to tighten policy further should risks to outlook materialize and make such action appropriate.” The FOMC Minutes revealed that Fed officials remain uncertain about the current degree of policy restrictiveness. They noted that "it would take longer than previously anticipated to gain greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably to 2%." On the Aussie’s front, Thursday’s economic docket will feature the release of the Judo Bank Manufacturing and Services PMIs final readings for May. The preliminary reading showed that manufacturing activity remained in contractionary territory yet improved from 47.3 to 49.6, while the services index remained in expansionary territory, still dipping from 54.4 to 53.6. On the US front, unemployment claims for the week ending May 18, alongside the release of the S&P Global PMIs, could spark some movement in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook After trading within a narrow range of 0.6640-0.6700, the AUD/USD cleared the bottom of the range and extended its losses toward the 0.6610 region. It should be said that buyers are losing steam, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flat despite being in bullish territory, opening the door to testing lower price levels. The AUD/USD first support would be 0.6600. A breach of the latter will expose the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 0.6562, followed by the 50 and 200-DMAs each at 0.6553 and 0.6526. Conversely, if buyers regain control, and push prices above 0.6640, that could pave the way toward 0.6700.AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.662 Today Daily Change -0.0045 Today Daily Change % -0.68 Today daily open 0.6665   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6597 Daily SMA50 0.6553 Daily SMA100 0.6565 Daily SMA200 0.6527   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6679 Previous Daily Low 0.6646 Previous Weekly High 0.6714 Previous Weekly Low 0.658 Previous Monthly High 0.6644 Previous Monthly Low 0.6362 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6659 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6667 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6648 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6631 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6616 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6681 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6696 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6713    

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil declined for a third straight day on Wednesday, falling below $78.00 per barrel once again after US Crude Oil barrel counts rose week-on-week after a previous decline.

WTI declines for a third straight day on Wednesday.US barrel counts hint at further supply overhang.FOMC Meeting Minutes reveal cautious Fed, rate hopes stumble.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil declined for a third straight day on Wednesday, falling below $78.00 per barrel once again after US Crude Oil barrel counts rose week-on-week after a previous decline. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes revealed the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains stubbornly committed to waiting for firmer signs that US inflation will continue easing towards the Fed’s 2% annual target, vexing rate cut hopes and knocking risk sentiment lower in the midweek market session.Read more: Fed Minutes leave the door open to a probable rate cut in SeptemberAccording to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Crude Oil Stocks through the week ended May 17, climbing 1.825 million barrels, well above the median market forecast of a -3.1 million barrel decline. The week-on-week EIA barrel count chewed through most of the previous week’s -2.508 million barrel drop, reigniting concerns that US Crude Oil production threatens to swamp demand. Crude Oil over-production concerns rose further on Wednesday after Russia announced an accidental overproduction of Russian Crude, with the nation pointing a finger at “technical difficulties”. According to sources, Russia’s Energy Minister will be putting options for voluntary output cuts “under review. Russia is expected to present a plan to offset additional production to OPEC+, the extended group of associate states aligned with the inner core of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). WTI technical outlook WTI US Crude Oil is testing down into $77.00 per barrel, extending a near-term decline from a recent peak just above $80.00 per barrel. Intraday price action has tumbled back into a familiar demand zone below $78.00 per barrel, and risks further downside if it breaks down below $76.50. WTI closed in the red for a third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, increasing the odds of an extended technical rejection from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.25. WTI hourly chart WTI daily chart WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 77.05 Today Daily Change -1.08 Today Daily Change % -1.38 Today daily open 78.13   Trends Daily SMA20 79.61 Daily SMA50 81.58 Daily SMA100 78.58 Daily SMA200 79.62   Levels Previous Daily High 79.24 Previous Daily Low 77.62 Previous Weekly High 79.63 Previous Weekly Low 76.38 Previous Monthly High 87.12 Previous Monthly Low 80.62 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 78.24 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 78.62 Daily Pivot Point S1 77.42 Daily Pivot Point S2 76.71 Daily Pivot Point S3 75.8 Daily Pivot Point R1 79.04 Daily Pivot Point R2 79.95 Daily Pivot Point R3 80.66    

On Wednesday's session, the NZD/USD showed diminishing buying traction and fell just below 0.6100.

Despite softening positive momentum indicated by the daily MACD, the overall trend still favors the buyers.Hourly chart shows fairly neutral RSI but negative momentum in MACD, signaling possible short-term fluctuations.Regardless of potential shifts suggested by hourly indicators, the overall bullish bias based on daily SMAs is intact.Signs of weakening buying momentum in NZD/USD implies potential retests of key SMAs, dictating investor alertness.On Wednesday's session, the NZD/USD showed diminishing buying traction and fell just below 0.6100. However, the short-term outlook will be positive if the pair maintains its position over new reference points set by 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). If lost, the bears might step in aggressively. Examining the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exhibits a positive but flattening trend, with its most recent reading of 60. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays decreasing green bars indicating a slight softening of positive momentum. NZD/USD daily chart Focusing on the hourly view, the RSI has moderately adjusted with the latest reading of 41, reflecting a fairly neutral direction. Notably, the MACD histogram has produced consistently flat red bars, signaling negative momentum on an intraday basis. NZD/USD hourly chart In conclusion, investors seem to be taking profits and, should the pair hold above the recently-conquered 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), any downward movement should not necessarily be considered a selling signal. However, buying traction appears to be waning, and the pair is set for a retest of the mentioned SMAs.   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6093 Today Daily Change 0.0003 Today Daily Change % 0.05 Today daily open 0.609   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6014 Daily SMA50 0.6004 Daily SMA100 0.6074 Daily SMA200 0.6041   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6118 Previous Daily Low 0.6087 Previous Weekly High 0.6146 Previous Weekly Low 0.5995 Previous Monthly High 0.6079 Previous Monthly Low 0.5851 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6099 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6106 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6079 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6068 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6049 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6109 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6129 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.614    

Silver price tumbled more than 3.50% during the North American session after the Federal Reserve revealed “hawkish tilted” minutes that showed some officials would like to raise rates if inflation warranted it.

Silver drops more than 3.50%, after hitting a daily high of $32.19.Fed's hawkish minutes prompt profit-taking in precious metals, impacting Gold and Silver.Key support levels for Silver: $30.00 psychological level, April 12 high at $29.79, and $29.00.Additional support: May 18, 2021, high at $28.74, and June 10, 2021, high at $28.28.Silver price tumbled more than 3.50% during the North American session after the Federal Reserve revealed “hawkish tilted” minutes that showed some officials would like to raise rates if inflation warranted it. Therefore, precious metals like Gold and Silver trimmed some of the weekly gains. The XAG/USD trades at $30.81 after reaching a daily high of $32.19. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Silver’s uptrend remains intact, but due to the speed and strength of the move, the grey metal was subject to a mean reversion move. The buyer’s momentum has faded, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was overbought and punched below the 70.00 level, hinting sellers to step in. With that said, the XAG/USD first support would be the $30.00 psychological level. On further weakness, the next floor level would be the April 12 high turned support at $29.79, followed by $29.00. The next key support levels would be the May 18, 2021, high at $28.74, and the June 10, 2021, high at $28.28. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 30.78 Today Daily Change -1.20 Today Daily Change % -3.75 Today daily open 31.98   Trends Daily SMA20 28.25 Daily SMA50 27.15 Daily SMA100 25.06 Daily SMA200 24.17   Levels Previous Daily High 32.5 Previous Daily Low 31.07 Previous Weekly High 31.6 Previous Weekly Low 27.97 Previous Monthly High 29.8 Previous Monthly Low 24.75 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 31.96 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 31.62 Daily Pivot Point S1 31.2 Daily Pivot Point S2 30.42 Daily Pivot Point S3 29.77 Daily Pivot Point R1 32.63 Daily Pivot Point R2 33.28 Daily Pivot Point R3 34.06    
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