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목요일, 11월 26, 2020

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey came in at -6.7, below expectations (-5) in December

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted EUR/USD could gradually approach to 1.1980 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected EUR to strengthen

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted EUR/USD could gradually approach to 1.1980 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected EUR to strengthen yesterday and were of the view that ‘a break of 1.1920 could potentially trigger further buying towards the next resistance at 1.1955’. While EUR cracked 1.1920, there was not much follow-through (high of 1.1929). Upward momentum still appears to be relatively strong and from here, there is room for EUR to test 1.1955 first before a pullback can be expected. The next resistance at 1.1980 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 1.1890 followed by 1.1875.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (24 Nov, spot at 1.1845), we held the view that EUR ‘could trade sideways for a period of time and only a break out of the expected 1.1760/1.1920 range would indicate the start of a more sustained directional movement’. While EUR cracked the solid resistance at 1.1920 yesterday, the subsequent price actions were surprisingly muted (high of 1.1929). That said, further EUR strength is expected even though any advance could be slow going and the next resistance at 1.1980 may not come into the picture so soon. On the downside, a break of 1.1840 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the risk for further EUR strength has dissipated.”  

The European Central Bank (ECB) should consider cancelling the government debt it buys during the coronavirus crisis to help nations recover from the

The European Central Bank (ECB) should consider cancelling the government debt it buys during the coronavirus crisis to help nations recover from the economic blow, Bloomberg reports, citing an interview of the Cabinet Undersecretary Riccardo Fraccaro, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s closest aide.   developing story ...

FX option expiries for Nov 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1800 662m 1.1825 504m 1.1860 967m -

FX option expiries for Nov 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1800 662m 1.1825 504m 1.1860 967m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.3250 251m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          103.00 730m 104.00 1.7bn 105.00 996m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7310 752m 0.7400 733m

US inflation expectations, as indicated by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate figures of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, remain sluggish arou

US inflation expectations, as indicated by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate figures of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, remain sluggish around 1.75% during early Wednesday. In doing so, the risk barometer fails to cheer the recent strength in oil prices as well as calls that Janet Yellen’s role as US Treasury Secretary will propel the yields. Further, hopes that the covid vaccine will soon out also fail to please the market bulls. The reason could be spotted from the Fed’s cautious optimism as well as fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19), as the global count crosses 60 million. Also weighing the market sentiment could be the chatters concerning US-China trade relations and the American government sanction on Russian and Chinese companies. Additionally, China’s warning, indirectly coming from the state-run Global Times (GT), to US President-elect Joe Biden over Taiwan offered an extra burden on the market players. Against this backdrop, the Thanksgiving Day holiday restricts the market mood and causes the traders to await fresh clues as equities wobble around a multi-month high.

WTI crosses $46.00, up 0.45% intraday, during the pre-European session on Thursday. The energy benchmark forms a bullish pennant on the hourly (1H) ch

WTI prints mild gains while staying around the early March high.The immediate megaphone resistance adds to the upside filters.Bearish MACD challenges the bulls but sellers await a break of weekly support line.WTI crosses $46.00, up 0.45% intraday, during the pre-European session on Thursday. The energy benchmark forms a bullish pennant on the hourly (1H) chart while taking rounds to the highest level since March 05, flashed the previous day. Although the bullish chart pattern is likely to keep the oil buyers hopeful, on the break of $46.10, the upper line of a short-term megaphone pattern, at $46.70 now, seems to challenge the quote’s further upside amid bearish MACD. It should, however, be noted that the commodity’s rise past-$46.70 will eye the March month’s peak near $48.75. Meanwhile, the support line of pennant and megaphone, respectively around $45.90 and $45.50, can entertain the intraday sellers. Though, a clear downside below the weekly support line, at $45.10, will be necessary to rule out the black gold’s short-term upside. Following that, the early Tuesday's high near $43.80 should lure the oil bears. WTI hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

OPEC+, a group of major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are leading toward delaying the planned production boost to compensate for a slo

OPEC+, a group of major oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, are leading toward delaying the planned production boost to compensate for a slowdown in economic activity due to the second wave of coronavirus and rising Libyan oil output, sources told Reuters.  Producers were due to raise output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in January as the global economy showed signs of life at the end of the third quarter with easing coronavirus lockdown restrictions.  However, the number of new cases has surged across the globe over the past few weeks, reviving fears of a double-dip recession. As such, the OPEC+ OPEC+ is now considering delaying the increase. "It looks like the extension is needed," a source told Reuters, citing "possible price drops and demand uncertainties" amid the second wave of the virus.  OPEC+ implemented record output cuts of 9.7 million bpd from May 1 to rebalance the market. The deal was revised to 7.7 million bpd in the third quarter.       

Having rallied for consecutive nine-day, GBP/USD bulls catch a breather around 1.3390 while heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the quot

GBP/USD struggles for a clear direction near the highest levels since September 02.UK’s coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths rise to the early May top.EU Chief rekindles odds of no-deal, Irish PM marks “good results” in talks.US Thanksgiving Day can restrict market moves amid a light calendar, risk reshuffle can’t be ruled out.Having rallied for consecutive nine-day, GBP/USD bulls catch a breather around 1.3390 while heading into Thursday’s London open. In doing so, the quote stays near the fresh high since September 02 of 1.3397, marked earlier in Asia. While receding Brexit optimism and the UK’s covid fears tame the bulls, the US dollar’s losses outweigh everything amid a quiet session on Thanksgiving Day. The UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s effort to tame the biggest budget deficit since world war two couldn’t disappoint the Cable buyers the previous day as the US dollar index (DXY) dropped to a fresh low since September 01. Not only the downbeat data but risk-on mood also negatively affected the greenback on Wednesday. On the other hand, the European Commission head, Ursula von der Leyen, showed readiness to walk away with no trade deal while France also sounded grumbling over the fisheries issues. Though, Ireland’s PM Micheal Martin seemed hopeful in recent comments. Elsewhere, the UK’s covid-related death toll surged by 696 to 56,533, the highest daily jump since May 5, on Wednesday. Even so, UK PM Johnson kept up the mood to celebrate Christmas. It should be noted that the US-China tussle is back in focus with both the nations missing on the trade promises even after 10 months of the much-cheered deal. Also, the American government sanction on four companies from China and Russia, concerning the Iran missile program, spoils the mood. However, futures stay mildly positive amid vaccine hopes and a light calendar due to the US holidays. GBP/USD bulls are likely to stay on the driver’s seat as the DXY remains pressured and the Brexit hopes, despite receding off-late, remain on the table. Technical analysis Overbought RSI conditions tease bears to look for entries below an upward sloping trend line from November 02, at 1.3360.  

EUR/USD is trading near the three-month high of 1.1930 reached Wednesday and may chart more robust gains if critical German data beats estimates. Due

EUR/USD looks to extend the recent rise from 1.1833 to 1.1930. German Consumer Confidence may see bigger-than-expected drop on coronavirus concerns. A weak data could put brakes on EUR/USD's rally.EUR/USD is trading near the three-month high of 1.1930 reached Wednesday and may chart more robust gains if critical German data beats estimates.  Due at 07:00 GMT, the German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for December, a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity, is expected to print at -5, marking a decline from October's -3.1 reading.  Germany is facing a second wave of coronavirus and has reimposed economically-painful lockdown restrictions. As such, the data could come in well below expectations, hinting at deeper economic slowdown and drawing offers for EUR/USD. Markets are expecting the European Central Bank to announce additional stimulus in December.  EUR/USD will likely extend the recent move from 1.1833 to 1.1930 if the data beats estimates by a significant margin.  The pair is already on the offensive, courtesy of the dismal US data and the dovish Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday. Volatility will likely remain low with the US-based traders observing the Thanksgiving holiday. (edited)  Technical levels  

Japan Coincident Index above forecasts (80.8) in September: Actual (81.1)

Japan Leading Economic Index came in at 92.5 below forecasts (92.9) in September

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 4%, above forecasts (2.5%) in October

Japan Coincident Index below expectations (80.8) in September: Actual (1.7)

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (2.5%) in October

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -19%, below expectations (-11.9%) in October

Gold bulls are offered temporary reprieve amid the US data disappointment, which reignited economic growth concerns and downed the US dollar. Markets

Gold bulls are offered temporary reprieve amid the US data disappointment, which reignited economic growth concerns and downed the US dollar. Markets have begun to respond to the fundamentals amid coronavirus vaccine hopes and surging infections worldwide. Looking ahead, the recovery attempts in gold are likely to remain shallow amid Thanksgiving Day light trading. The metal remains on slippery grounds, with $1800 still at risk amid a lack of healthy support levels, as suggested by the technical charts. Gold: Key resistances and supports The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the XAU/USD pair faces immediate resistance at $1813 (previous high four-hour) as it attempts another bounce. The next upside barrier awaits at $1816, which is the Pivot Point one-day R1. The gold bulls need a sustained move above the powerful resistance at $1818, where the Pivot Point one-month S3 converges with the previous day high. Buying interest will likely accelerate above the latter, opening doors for a test of the $1825 level, which is the Pivot Point one-day R2. Alternatively, a failure to resist above $1808, the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and SMA10 four-hour, could expose the Pivot Point one-week S3 located at $1805. Further south, the $1800 psychological support could be threatened, paving the way for a test of the fierce SMA200 one-day support at $1798. The sellers would then target the $1793 cushion, which is the Pivot Point one-day S2. Here is how it looks on the tool About Confluence Detector The TCI (Technical Confluences Indicator) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

EUR/CHF declines to 1.0815, down 0.09% intraday, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The pair surged to the highest since September 01 the previous

EUR/CHF takes offers for the second consecutive day, refreshes intraday low.Two-week-old ascending trend line offers immediate support, bulls need a closing break beyond nearly six-month-long resistance line.EUR/CHF declines to 1.0815, down 0.09% intraday, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The pair surged to the highest since September 01 the previous day, before reversing from 1.0871. In doing so, the quote marks sustained trading, on a daily closing basis, below the falling trend line from June 05, which in turn joins likely easing of RSI to keep the sellers hopeful. As a result, an upward sloping trend line from November 12, at 1.0800 now, becomes the immediate support to watch for the EUR/CHF sellers. Though, a confluence of 100-day and 50-day SMA around 1.0765/60 can challenge the bears afterward. Should there be additional weakness past-1.0760, the 200-day SMA level near 1.0685 becomes the key to watch. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond the stated resistance line, around 1.0845, needs to refresh the multi-day high of 1.0871 to target the yearly top of 1.0915. EUR/CHF daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

GBP/JPY is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near 139.65, having faced rejection at 139.83 early Wednesday. The pair has failed to keep g

GBP/JPY's dialy chart shows buyer fatigue above 139.80. The pair could drop toward Wednesday's low of 139.00.GBP/JPY is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near 139.65, having faced rejection at 139.83 early Wednesday.  The pair has failed to keep gains above 1.39.80 for the third straight day.  That, coupled with the bearish divergence of the 14-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggests scope for a drop to immediate support at 139.00 (Wednesday's low).  A violation there would shift the focus to the 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at 138.50. On the higher side, the Nov. 11 high of 140.31 is the level to beat for the bulls.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Asian equities fizzle the recent upside momentum on early Thursday as a lack of major data/events joined the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. That said, M

Asian shares dribble amid a light calendar on Thanksgiving Day.Traders ignore headlines concerning China, BOK moves and Aussie Capex data.Asian equities fizzle the recent upside momentum on early Thursday as a lack of major data/events joined the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. That said, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rises 0.37% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 adds 0.46% by press time. Chatters that the US announced sanctions on the four companies from Russia and China, concerning the Iran missile program, initially triggered the trade war fears in Asia. The pessimism gained momentum as Washington and Beijing both haven’t yet traded half of what was agreed in the trade deal during the 10 months. Additionally, an update from China’s Securities Journal suggesting that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will not alter interest rates in the short-term also disappointed the Asian traders. Against this backdrop, shares in China trade mildly negative while those from Hong Kong struggle for a clear direction. Elsewhere, Germany announced an extension of the partial lockdown measures to December 20, 2020, while Spain and the UK are likely limiting the Christmas celebration to tame the coronavirus (COVID-19). The reason could be traced from the spike in the global cases to cross the 60 million mark. Amid these negatives, coupled with the absence of the US traders and downbeat American data published on Wednesday, market sentiment lost the previous day’s upside momentum. Though, vaccine hopes and expectations that US President-elect Joe Biden will be able combat the pandemic with heavy stimulus stopped bears from entering the markets. It should also be noted that Australian Private Capital Expenditure (Capex) for the third quarter (Q3) dropped more than -1.5% forecast to -3.0%. This might have weighed on the ASX 200, down 0.50% intraday, while also challenging the NZX 50 that wobbles with less than 0.10% losses even if the RBNZ Governor Arian Orr favored fiscal stimulus. Further, the Bank of Korea (BOK) left benchmark interest rates unchanged during today’s monetary policy meeting. Governor Lee Ju-yeol mentioned that the worst seems to be over for the economy. Though, his comments could help KOSPI as it dwindles near 2,600 at the time of writing. Even as the lack of major data/events and US holiday could restrict the intraday market moves, bears may find strong hurdles amid hopes of stimulus from the US, expectations of the covid vaccine.

Early Thursday, China Securities Journal turned down the odds of an interest rate hike by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), in the

Early Thursday, China Securities Journal turned down the odds of an interest rate hike by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), in the short-term. Key quotes Although there is a high probability that fiscal policy normalization will also be put on the agenda, in the process of policy returning to normal, monetary policy will undoubtedly be brewed more fully and act earlier. Price adjustment may not be a short-term focus. FX implications Following the news, USD/CNY bounces off an intraday low to 6.5675. However, the recently comparative weakness of the US dollar, coupled with no talks of the Fed’s rate change, can keep the bears hopeful.

The Brazilian real (BRL) is the most undervalued emerging market (EM) currency, according to Robin Brooks, according to Robin Brooks, chief economist

The Brazilian real (BRL) is the most undervalued emerging market (EM) currency, according to Robin Brooks, according to Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF).  Undervalued by 20% according to our fair value model, the real is slowly starting to recover, powered by the current account surplus and a gradual recovery in foreign portfolio flows, Brooks tweeted.  Real's fair value is 4.50 per US dollar, according to IIF. The USD/BRL pair was last seen near 5.32. 

USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity with the dollar drawing offers, possibly on disappointing US data released Wednesday. The pair is currently tra

USD/JPY drops over 20 pips in Asia to test Wednesday's low. Disappointing US jobs data and dovish Fed minutes weigh over the dollar.USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity with the dollar drawing offers, possibly on disappointing US data released Wednesday.  The pair is currently trading in the red at 104.30, having tested Wednesday's low of 104.25 soon before press time.  The US Labor Department's weekly jobless claims released Wednesday showed that the resurgence of coronavirus is boosting layoffs and undermining the labor market recovery. Another setup of data showed the US Personal Income fell in October while spending ticked higher.  Meanwhile, minutes from the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) last policy meeting showed officials were worried that the economy was on a course for a renewed slowdown with Congress struggling to approve additional fiscal stimulus amid the rising number of coronavirus cases.  As such, the greenback is on the offer. The safe-haven currency could continue to lose ground in the near-term on heightened prospects of additional monetary easing by the Fed and expectations for a swift economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines.  Technical levels  

New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) up to $2.191B in October from previous $1.71B

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) rose from previous $-1017M to $-501M in October

USD/CHF declines to the lowest since November 09 during early Thursday. However, a falling trend line from November 17 restricts the pair’s further do

USD/CHF teases weekly support line, stays pressured near intraday low.Bearish MACD, absence of oversold RSI favor sellers.USD/CHF declines to the lowest since November 09 during early Thursday. However, a falling trend line from November 17 restricts the pair’s further downside around the intraday bottom of 0.9070. It should, however, be noted that bearish MACD keeps the USD/CHF sellers hopeful of breaking the immediate support line, which in turn highlights October lows near 0.9030 for the pair traders. If at all the RSI refrains from oversold territory around 0.9030, the 0.9000 threshold and monthly low near 0.8980 may return to the charts. Alternatively, the 0.9100 round-figure and a two-week-old falling trend line, at 0.9135 now, can cap the USD/CHF recovery moves. Also acting as the strong upside hurdle is a monthly falling trend line around 0.9170 and the 0.9200 psychological mark. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

AUD/USD renews two-month highs at 0.7375, shrugging-off a big miss on the Australian Q3 Private Capital Expenditure data, as the latest leg down in th

AUD/USD’s path of least resistance appears north.The spot confirmed a bull pennant on 1D on Tuesday.Daily RSI has flattened just below the overbought territory. AUD/USD renews two-month highs at 0.7375, shrugging-off a big miss on the Australian Q3 Private Capital Expenditure data, as the latest leg down in the US dollar underpins. The greenback was sold-off into renewed concerns about the post-pandemic US economic recovery, reinforced by the jump in the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which negated the sharp rebound in the GDP for the third quarter. Also, rising covid cases in the US weighed on the dollar. From a technical perspective, the path of least resistance appears to the upside, as the price has charted a bull pennant breakout on the daily chart last Tuesday. The upside momentum is also backed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), trending well above 50.00, with scope for further upside, as it remains below the overbought territory. The bulls now await a sustained break above the 0.7400 psychological barrier to challenge the yearly highs of 0.7416. Further north, a test of the 0.7450 barrier will come into the picture. To the downside, the daily low of 0.7357 could halt the pullback, below which the 0.7300 round number will get tested. At that level, the pattern resistance now support coincides. AUD/USD: Daily chart AUD/USD: Additional levels  

Gold is currently hovering near $1,810 per ounce, having formed a Doji candle on Wednesday with a back-and-forth trading in the range of $1,801 to $1,

Gold's daily chart shows signs of indecision in the market. Wednesday's high and low are levels to beat for bulls and bears, respectively.Gold is currently hovering near $1,810 per ounce, having formed a Doji candle on Wednesday with a back-and-forth trading in the range of $1,801 to $1,818. A Doji candle represents indecision in the market and makes the following day's close pivotal.  In other words, the next move in gold depends on Thursday's close. Acceptance above the Doji candle's high of 1,818 would mean the period of indecision has ended with a bull victory and could yield a re-test of the former support-turned-hurdle at $1,880.  Alternatively, a close below $1,801 (Doji's low) would imply a continuation of the sell-off from the Nov. 9 high of $1,965. That said, the widely-tracked 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located near $1,798, that is, just below the Doji candle's low of $1,801.  As such, the 200-day SMA is the level to beat for the bears.  Daily chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

Observers at Morgan Stanley foresee the cumulative balance sheet of G4 central banks – the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the

Observers at Morgan Stanley foresee the cumulative balance sheet of G4 central banks – the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Banks – expanding to an unprecedented $29 trillion by the year-end, almost double the size observed at the end of 2019, as noted by Jeroen Blokland, Portfolio Manager for the Robeco Multi-Asset funds. Major central banks launched massive stimulus programs earlier this year to contain the fallout from the coroanvirus outbreak. While recent positive news on the coronavirus vaccine front has raised hopes for a swift global recovery, there is still a long way to go before the economic activity reaches pre-panedmic levels. As such, central banks are unlikely to halt or scale back stimulus anytime soon.  In other words, the G4 balance sheet looks set to expand further. That's positive news for scare assets such as gold. The yellow metal rose to a record high of $2,075 per ounce in August and was last seen trading near $1,810. 

The worst seems to be over for the Korean economy, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol said at the post-monetary policy press conference on T

The worst seems to be over for the Korean economy, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol said at the post-monetary policy press conference on Thursday. Additional comments Thursday's rate decision was unanimous. Political moves to add jobs to BOK mandate needs in-depth discussion. Recent gains in KRW bigger than gains in other major currencies. Herd-like behaviour added to recent volatilities in KRW. Closely monitoring KRW. Will act to stabilize fx market if needed. more to come ....

AUD/JPY is trading largely unchanged on the day near 76.80, with the Aussie bears sitting on the fence despite the third quarter Private Capital Expen

AUd/JPY lacks a clear directional bias after Wednesday's Doji candle, a sign of indecision. Australia's CAPEX drops more-than-expected in the third quarter. Mild risk-off favors a downside move in the Aussie pairs.AUD/JPY is trading largely unchanged on the day near 76.80, with the Aussie bears sitting on the fence despite the third quarter Private Capital Expenditure (CAPEX).  Private new capital expenditure fell by 3% in the July to September period, following a 5.9% slide in the second quarter. Economists had forecast a 1.5% decline, the data released at 00:30 GMT showed.  However, estimate 4 for 2020-21 came in at AUD 104,984 million – up 6.3% than the estimate 3 for 2020-21. While so far, the AUD/JPY pair has lacked a clear directional bias, the mild losses in the Asian equities indicate the period of indecision may end with a downside move.  Stocks in Asia are flashing red, possibly in response to the disappointing US jobs data and new COVID-19 lockdowns. That said, hopes for swift global economic recovery on potential coronavirus vaccines are likely to keep risk assets supported on dips. Further, an absence of US traders on account of the Thanksgiving holiday will likely restrict the market moves amid a light calendar.  Technical levels  

USD/INR drops to 73.77, down 0.06% intraday during the early Thursday. In doing so, the quote ignores the downbeat performance of Indian rates. The re

USD/INR drops for the third day, around two-week low.Three-year Treasury yields drop to the record low, market repo and interbank call rates are also down.US Dollar weakness favors the pair sellers, Thanksgiving Day can restrict the moves.USD/INR drops to 73.77, down 0.06% intraday during the early Thursday. In doing so, the quote ignores the downbeat performance of Indian rates. The reason could be traced from the US dollar weakness. Be it a three-month treasury bill or market repo, not to forget call rate and collateralized money-market rates, all the key short-term rates are down in India, as per the latest research from Bloomberg. The moves are “indicating investors such as mutual funds are accepting returns lower than what RBI’s deposit window would offer banks,” per the report. The report cites liquidity bloat from the central bank’s intervention in the foreign currency market as a major challenge that stops Governor Shaktikanta Das from achieving his target. Elsewhere, the US dollar index (DXY) wobbles around the lowest since September as downbeat economics and risk-on mood disappoint greenback buyers. Looking forward, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy decision on December 04 will entertain the USD/INR traders. Before that risk catalysts can offer intermediate moves. However, Thursday is likely to be a dull affair for the pair considering the US holiday. Technical analysis A sustained downside past-50-day SMA and an ascending trend line from October 12 favor USD/INR sellers to attack the monthly low near 73.65.  

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) urges the government to consider changes in the tax policy, in a bid to stem the rise in house prices, Governor

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) urges the government to consider changes in the tax policy, in a bid to stem the rise in house prices, Governor Adrian Orr said in an interview with Radio New Zealand on Thursday.   developing story ...

EUR/USD is currently trading near Wednesday's high of 1.1928, the highest level since Sept. 1. The pair needs to establish a foothold above the horizo

EUR/USD trades at the highest point in nearly three months. Acceptance above 101920 will likely invite stronger buying pressure.EUR/USD is currently trading near Wednesday's high of 1.1928, the highest level since Sept. 1.  The pair needs to establish a foothold above the horizontal resistance of 1.1920 – euro turned lower from that level on Nov. 9.  That would cement the bullish view put forward by the descending triangle breakdown confirmed earlier this month and open the doors for a re-test of 1.2011 (Sept. 1 high).  A failure to hold above 1.1920 could yield a pullback to the ascending 10-day Simple Moving Average, currently at 1.1870. The pair clocked a high of 1.1928 on Wednesday but closed under 1.1920.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to alter its baseline economic scenario despite the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across the globe, MNI report

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to alter its baseline economic scenario despite the resurgence of COVID-19 infections across the globe, MNI reports, citing the central bank’s officials.   more to come....

NZD/USD wobbles inside nearly 15-pips area, currently down 0.05% intraday around 0.7007, so far during early Thursday. In doing so, the kiwi bulls mar

NZD/USD struggles to rise past-0.7000 after stepping back from June 2018 top.Overbought RSI conditions also challenge the upside momentum.10-day SMA adds to the downside filter below the previous resistance line.NZD/USD wobbles inside nearly 15-pips area, currently down 0.05% intraday around 0.7007, so far during early Thursday. In doing so, the kiwi bulls mark a halt after challenging the 2.5-year high the previous day. With the overbought RSI favoring further weakness in NZD/USD prices, sellers will eye fresh entries below an ascending trend line from late-July, currently around 0.6985. In doing so, a 10-day SMA level of 0.6934 will be on their radars. However, December 2018 low and high marked in early 2019, respectively around 0.6970 and 0.6945/40, offer a bumpy road to the south. Alternatively, a fresh high beyond 0.7016 will aim for the mid-2018 peak surrounding 0.7060/65. During the quote’s further advances past-0.7065, the 0.7100 round-figure and March 2018 low close to 0.7150 will be the key to watch. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Gold prices probe intraday high near $1,812, up 0.30% on a day, during the early Thursday. In doing so, the yellow metal marks the highest gains in a

Gold extends corrective recovery from 4.5-month low.Virus updates, trade/political news probe US stimulus hopes.Thanksgiving Day can challenge the momentum traders amid a light calendar elsewhere.Gold prices probe intraday high near $1,812, up 0.30% on a day, during the early Thursday. In doing so, the yellow metal marks the highest gains in a week while trying to bounce off the lowest since mid-July, marked on Tuesday, amid mixed catalysts. Upbeat market sentiment led by the US President-elect Joe Biden’s welcome couldn’t last long as the downbeat data from American joined the 60 million global coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, not to forget extended partial lockdowns in Germany, to challenge the bulls. Also on the negative side are chatters surrounding the inabilities by the US and China to deliver only half of the trade promises in the last 10 months. Further, the Trump administration’s sanctions on the four firms from Russia and China also challenge the market sentiment. On the same line, Chinese state media warns Biden over his comments on Taiwan and adds to the fears of trade/political tension among the world’s top two economies. It’s worth mentioning that Brexit fears are back on the table with fisheries continue to drag the talks. Meanwhile, the vaccine hopes remain on the table and the Fed is also ready to do what’s needed, though not for now, per the latest FOMC minutes. Amid these catalysts, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.17% while stocks in Japan, per Nikkei 225, are up 0.40%. Further, Australia’s ASX 200 and New Zealand’s NZX 50 are mildly offered by press time. Given the US holiday and a light calendar elsewhere, gold buyers are likely to struggle in extending the latest recovery moves. Technical analysis Pin bar on the daily (D1) chart above 200-day SMA suggests further bounce off $1,798 key support. Though, September lows around $1,848/49 challenge the gold buyers.  

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.5780 vs. Wednesday’s 6.5749. The PBOC injected a CNY80 billion via

On Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.5780 vs. Wednesday’s 6.5749. The PBOC injected a CNY80 billion via seven-day reverse repos in open market operations (OMOS) while CNY70 billion matured. Therefore, the net addition is seen at CNY10 billion.

USD/CAD consolidates the weekly losses while regaining the 1.3000 threshold early on Thursday. The pair dropped to the lowest in two weeks the previou

USD/CAD bounces off a horizontal area comprising multiple lows marked since September.A confluence of 10-day SMA, monthly resistance line guards immediate upside.Break of September low becomes necessary for the fresh downside.USD/CAD consolidates the weekly losses while regaining the 1.3000 threshold early on Thursday. The pair dropped to the lowest in two weeks the previous day, before bouncing off 1.2986. As a result, the region between 1.2985 and 1.3000, including lows marked since September 01, except for the current month’s downtick, becomes the key support to watch for USD/CAD traders. Considering the pair’s latest pullback moves, November 17 low near 1.3035 appears as an immediate target for the USD/CAD buyers. However, a joint of short-term SMA and a descending trend line from November 02, near 1.3060/65 becomes the key resistance to watch afterward. Meanwhile, bearish MACD and the pair’s trading below important resistance confluence keep the USD/CAD sellers hopeful. Hence, a downside break of 1.2985 is what they’re targeting before looking at the monthly bottom around 1.2930. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The South Korean central bank, the Bank of Korea (BOK) left the key interest rates unchanged at 0.50% at its November monetary policy meeting held thi

The South Korean central bank, the Bank of Korea (BOK) left the key interest rates unchanged at 0.50% at its November monetary policy meeting held this Thursday. The decision was on the expected lines, as the economic recovery gathers momentum despite looming concerns about rising household debt. BOK’s economic forecasts Sees 2021 growth at3.0 % vs 2.8% before. Sees 2020 GDP growth at -1.1% vs -1.3% previously. Sees 2021 inflation at 1.0% vs 1.0% before. Sees 2020 inflation at 0.5% vs 0.4% previously.

South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (0.5%) in November

AUD/USD pays a little heed to Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) data for Q3. Virus woes, fears of US-China tussle combat vaccine hopes,

AUD/USD pays a little heed to Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) data for Q3.Virus woes, fears of US-China tussle combat vaccine hopes, Thanksgiving Day.US holiday, light calendar suggests dull trading, bulls can keep the reins amid US dollar weakness.AUD/USD struggles for a clear direction while taking rounds to 0.7360 during early Thursday. The aussie pair recently ignored the third quarter (Q3) Private Capital Expenditure data from home as US holiday and mixed risk signals trouble the traders around multi-day high. Australia’s Private Capex for Q3 slipped below -1.5% forecast to -3.0% but stayed well above the previous 5.9% contraction. Read: Australia’s Private Capex misses estimates with -3% in Q3, AUD/USD unfazed Risk catalysts trade mixed as S&P 500 Futures prints mild gains while stocks in Australia and New Zealand struggle for a clear direction with less than 0.50% intraday losses by press time. The reason could be traced from mixed signals concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) and the US-China linkages, be it trade and/or political. Global COVID-19 infections cross 60 million and push Germany to extend the partial lockdown towards late in December. Spain is also considering to limit the Christmas celebrations while the US hospitalization becomes worrisome. Elsewhere, the US and China have so far performed nearly 50% of what promised in their early-2020 trade agreement, which in turn suggests a trade war is coming. Also, the Trump administration recently blacklisted four companies from China and Russia saying to have links to Iran’s missile program. On the positive side, the vaccine developments and US President-elect Joe Biden’s readiness to battle the covid, coupled with a sound team, favor the risks. Looking forward, an absence of US traders will restrict the market moves amid a light calendar. Though, the US dollar weakness, amid a lack of safe-haven demand and downbeat data at home, can keep favoring the AUD/USD buyers. Technical analysis Despite the latest pullback from multi-day high, the ability to stay past-0.7345/40 area, comprising highs marked in mid-September and early November, keeps the AUD/USD buyers hopeful of breaking the 0.7400 round-figure.  

Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell more-than-expected in the third quarter, the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics

Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell more-than-expected in the third quarter, the latest data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Thursday. Total new capital expenditure fell by 3% in the September quarter 2020 vs. -1.5% expectations and a 5.9% slump witnessed in the June quarter.   developing story ...

Australia Private Capital Expenditure came in at -3% below forecasts (-1.5%) in 3Q

The White House is mulling lifting entry bans for most non-US citizens from Brazil, Britain, Ireland and 26 other European countries Reuters reports,

The White House is mulling lifting entry bans for most non-US citizens from Brazil, Britain, Ireland and 26 other European countries Reuters reports, citing five US and airline officials.   more to come ...

Silver prices rise to $23.39, up 0.39% intraday, amid Thursday’s Asian session. The white metal flashed a bullish spinning top, suggesting the traders

Silver prints mild gains after bouncing off the two-month-old support line.Candlestick suggests traders’ indecisiveness unless breaking 100-day EMA.Sellers can eye October low following the support line break.Silver prices rise to $23.39, up 0.39% intraday, amid Thursday’s Asian session. The white metal flashed a bullish spinning top, suggesting the traders’ indecision, the previous day as an upward sloping trend line from September 24 triggered corrective pullback from one month low. However, silver buyers are waiting for a clear break above the 100-day EMA level of $23.57 to defy the candlestick formation and attack a two-week-old resistance line near $23.95. It should, however, be noted that the $24.00 round-figure the mid-November high of $25.07 can offer intermediate halts between $23.95 and the monthly high of $26.00. On the downside, a daily closing below the stated support line, at $23.30 will direct the silver sellers toward the $23.00 threshold. Though, lows marked in October and September, respectively around $22.60 and $21.65, will challenge the commodity’s further weakness. Silver daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/JPY stalls its overnight bounce just shy of the 104.50 level in early Asia, as the bulls lack follow-through amid holiday-thinned market condition

USD/JPY’s bounce loses still in Asia on Thanksgiving Day.DXY wallows in two-month lows on mixed US data, covid surge. Cautious optimism to keep the pair in a familiar range around 104.50. USD/JPY stalls its overnight bounce just shy of the 104.50 level in early Asia, as the bulls lack follow-through amid holiday-thinned market conditions. US markets are closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day. Despite the S&P 500 futures posting minor gains, the sentiment around the major remains undermined by the persistent downbeat tone in the US dollar against its main competitors. The rise in the US initial jobless claims by 778,000 in the week ending Nov. 21 overshadowed the 33.1% expansion seen in the US Q3 GDP (second estimate) and dragged the greenback sharply lower in Wednesday’s American session. Also, the risk-on rally in the US stocks took a breather after the country reported over 12.7 million COVID-19 cases in total and reinforced economic growth concerns in the world’s biggest economy. Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting’s minutes reiterated the dovish expectations, adding to the downside in the buck. So far this Thursday’s trading, the spot is back in the red zone amid a softer Tokyo open and lack of relevant macro news. Looking ahead, thin trading and cautious optimism amid vaccine hopes could likely keep USD/JPY in a 104.00-105.00 familiar range. USD/JPY technical levels              

S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,630 as markets in Tokyo open for Thursday’s trading. The risk barometer flipped from the record high, flashe

S&P 500 Futures trim recent losses from the two-week high flashed the previous day.Global covid cases cross 60 million, China delivers half of trade promises to the US in 10 months.US blacklists four Chinese, Russian companies concerning Iran missile program, Brexit jitters continue.Light calendar and US Holiday can bore the traders.S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,630 as markets in Tokyo open for Thursday’s trading. The risk barometer flipped from the record high, flashed earlier in November, on Wednesday amid downbeat US data and a lack of fresh push to the previous risk-on mood. That said, the US equity derivative’s latest performance ignores the downbeat coronavirus (COVID-19) updates and fears that the tension between the US and China will renew soon. Not only Beijing’s inability to perform on the trade promises, which flashes trade war fears, but the American sanctions on four companies from China and Russia together in connection to Iran’s missile program renew political tussle among the world’s top economies. It’s worth mentioning that the Brexit jitters continue as the European Union policymakers, especially from France, consider the UK as too tough to tackle the key issues like fisheries. Additionally, Germany’s extension of the partial lockdown and Spain’s likely limit to the Christmas celebration also probe the market optimists. Alternatively, US President-elect Joe Biden is firming up his grip over the White House. The Democratic member has so far avoided speaking anything troublesome, which in turn suggests no major tussles going forward. Also, the Democratic push for the major stimulus favors the trading sentiment. Even so, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and stocks in Pacific nations track Wall Street’s sluggish performance by press time. Read: Wall Street Close: Risk-on mood fizzles amid mixed clues Moving on, a lack of data/events will join the US holiday to restrict the market’s momentum.

USD/TRY eases to 7.9314, down 0.28% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair extends Wednesday’s pullback from 200-bar SMA as

USD/TRY extends the previous day’s downward trajectory, wavers around the day’s low off-late.MACD flirts with the bears, weekly support line challenge further downside.USD/TRY eases to 7.9314, down 0.28% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair extends Wednesday’s pullback from 200-bar SMA as MACD eases towards the red. However, an upward sloping trend line from Friday, at 7.8615 now, probes the USD/TRY sellers, for now. Also acting as the key downside filter is an area including November 11 low and November 17 high around 7.7835/7970. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 200-bar SMA, currently around 8.0080 needs a clear break above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November 06-19 downside, at 8.1705, to recall the USD/TRY buyers. Following that, the November 10 high of 8.3875 will act as an intermediate halt before directing the bulls to the monthly high near 8.5815. USD/TRY four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected

The latest forecasts published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Wednesday showed that the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be shaved

The latest forecasts published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Wednesday showed that the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be shaved off by 2% if the Kingdom and European Union (EU) fail to strike a Brexit trade deal.   developing story ....

Despite the latest downslide in gold to four-month lows of $1800, analysts at Credit Suisse still see the metal on the higher, as the fundamentals rem

Despite the latest downslide in gold to four-month lows of $1800, analysts at Credit Suisse still see the metal on the higher, as the fundamentals remain supportive. Key quotes “The decline in prices is mere 'bump in the road'.” “The factors that supported the rise in price remain in place: monetary and fiscal policy remain accommodative and expansionary, low US real rates and a sliding US dollar.” Related readsGold Price Analysis: XAU/USD teasing rising channel breakdown on 1H chartWall Street Close: Risk-on mood fizzles amid mixed clues

On Wednesday, GBP/USD fell as low as 1.3310 during the European morning session, but through the European afternoon and US morning ground back towards

GBP/USD rallied as high as the mid-1.3390s on Wednesday, but has since eased off back to close to 1.3380.The pair is eyeing a test of highs set on Monday at 1.3398, ahead of a test of the psychologically important 1.3400 level.On Wednesday, GBP/USD fell as low as 1.3310 during the European morning session, but through the European afternoon and US morning ground back towards highs set on Monday of just below 1.3400. As trade settles down for what is likely to be a quiet Thursday Asia session ahead of thin US Thanksgiving holiday trade for the rest of the week, the pair has eased back to around 1.3380. GBP/USD bulls eye a test of year-to-date highs If Cable can crack it above 1.3400, there is not much by way of significant areas of resistance ahead of year-to-date highs at 1.3485, a level bulls are likely to gun for in case of a decisive upside break (perhaps spurred by the news of a Brexit deal being reached). In the bearish scenario, the first area of support is likely to come around 1.3350 in the form of an uptrend linking last Thursday’s, Monday’s and Tuesday’s lows. Beyond that, Wednesday’s low at 1.3304, Tuesday’s low at 1.3293 and Monday’s low at 1.3262 are the next support zones to watch out for.GBP/USD hourly chart

WTI stays positive near $45.90 during the initial hours of Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the energy benchmark extends the latest recovery mov

WTI bounces off $45.51, near the highest since March 06 flashed the previous day.Weekly data suggested EIA marked a surprise draw in inventories, Baker Hughes signaled an increase in rig US counts.The US sanctions four companies from Russia, China concerning Iran’s missile program.US dollar performance, risk news will be the key.WTI stays positive near $45.90 during the initial hours of Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the energy benchmark extends the latest recovery moves from $45.51 amid fears of geopolitical tension between the US and Iran. The black gold earlier witnessed pullback from the fresh high since early March, flashed during the previous day, as the US rig count numbers came in price negative. It should, however, be noted that the US dollar weakness joined a surprise draw in the official inventory data to please the oil bulls with a fresh high in nearly nine months, before stepping back from $46.30. As per the updates from Reuters, the US recently blacklisted four companies from Russia and China while accusing them of promoting Iran's missile program. The news combats the latest Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count that grew past-231 to 241. Earlier on Wednesday, the official Crude Oil Stocks Change figures, published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), suggest a surprise draw of 0.754 million barrels versus 0.127 million barrels of expected additional into the inventories. Other than the oil-related data/events, US dollar weakness, mainly on downbeat figures at home, also favored the commodity. Though, the coronavirus (COVID-19) fear probe the energy buyers who are trying to cheer the vaccine hopes. Against this backdrop, Exxon Mobil said, per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic to linger for much of the next decade.” The oil major has also trimmed its expectations for future oil prices for each of the next seven years by 11% to 17%, per the news. Moving on, oil traders should keep their eyes on the risk news amid a lack of major data/events. However, the US dollar weakness and vaccine development, coupled with the likely US-Iran tussle, can favor the oil benchmark ahead of the next week’s OPEC meeting. Technical analysis Unless declining back below August month’s high of $43.86, WTI bulls are well directed towards the March 2020 peak close to $48.75.  

Ireland's new Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Micheál Martin said Wednesday, he remains optimistic about achieving a ‘good result’ in trade talks bet

Ireland's new Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Micheál Martin said Wednesday, he remains optimistic about achieving a ‘good result’ in trade talks between the UK and the European Union (EU).   more to come ...

The recovery in Gold (XAU/USD) faltered at the rising channel hurdle near $1818 and since then the prices turned south, in a bid to test the four-mont

Gold looks vulnerable despite Wednesday bounce.XAU/USD teasing a rising channel breakdown on the hourly chart.200-DMA at $1798 is the level to beat for the bears. The recovery in Gold (XAU/USD) faltered at the rising channel hurdle near $1818 and since then the prices turned south, in a bid to test the four-month lows of $1800 reached Monday. The bears are fighting back control, as gold looks poised to dive out of the rising channel pattern formed on the hourly chart. An hourly close below the rising trendline support at $1804 could validate the bearish formation, opening floors towards the multi-month lows. A breach of the last could expose the critical 200-daily moving average (DMA), now located at $1798. The next on the sellers’ radars will be the May 18 high of $1765. Alternatively, the horizontal 21-hourly moving average (HMA) at $1809 could challenge any recovery attempt. Acceptance above the latter could call for a test of the bearish 50-HMA at $1814. The channel resistance will once again come into the picture on a firm break above the 50-HMA barrier. However, the downside appears more compelling, with the hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning south while within the bearish region below 50.00. Gold Price Chart: Hourly Gold: Additional levels  

In October, New Zealand exports recovered to NZ$ 4.78B, a more than NZ$ 700M increase in exports in September. Note that September is typically the we

NZD was broadly unfazed by strong New Zealand trade numbers for October, which paint a picture of an improving domestic economy.NZD/USD closed Wednesday FX trade above the 0.7000, a bullish sign moving forward.Strong trade numbers bode well for the New Zealand economy In October, New Zealand exports recovered to NZ$ 4.78B, a more than NZ$ 700M increase in exports in September. Note that September is typically the weakest month of the year for exports. Meanwhile, Imports rose to their highest levels since 2019 of NZ$ 5.29B, a sign of the continued recovery of demand in the New Zealand economy. That meant the monthly trade balance came in at a deficit of NZ$ 1B, its highest level since November 2019. That did not stop the YoY trade balance from increasing further into surplus territory at over NZ$ 2B (over the last 12 months). Tuesday’s strong trade numbers are a good sign that the New Zealand economy continues to perform robustly, in large part thanks to the country’s excellent handling/containment of the Covid-19 pandemic. Exports may come under pressure in the months ahead of key export destinations such as Europe and North America go back into recession given winter Covid-19 containment measures. NZD was nonetheless broadly unreactive to the data at the time, with NZD/USD remaining broadly supported above 0.7000. With volumes likely to thin over the next two days given Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday, conditions are likely to remain somewhat subdued for the rest of the week. NZD/USD bulls push pair above key resistance levels Not only did NZD/USD hurdle the 0.7000 level today (and Tuesday’s highs) and close above this key area, the pair has also broken to the upside of a long-term resistance uptrend that links the 9 and 10 June, 23, 23, 28 and 31 July and 2 September highs. Thus, little by way of notable levels of resistance stand between the pair at current levels and the 0.7050 mark, as well as June 2018 highs just beyond it. To the downside, the most notable levels of support are the December 2018 highs at 0.6970 and then the Q1 2019 highs at 0.6940.NZD/USD weekly chart

AUD/NZD drops to 1.0507 during the initial Asian session on Thursday. In doing so, the pair fizzles the latest recovery moves after New Zealand’s Octo

AUD/NZD fades recovery moves from 1.0448 as New Zealand (NZ) trade numbers improve.NZ Trade Balance grow past-$1.71B in October, Imports and Exports also rise.Two-day-old support line offers intermediate halt to the downside, 200-HMA guards immediate upside.AUD/NZD drops to 1.0507 during the initial Asian session on Thursday. In doing so, the pair fizzles the latest recovery moves after New Zealand’s October month trade numbers flashed upbeat signals. As per the data, the headline Trade Balance rose beyond $1.71B to $2.19B. Further details suggest improvement in Exports and Imports from $4.01B and $5.02B respective priors to $4.78B and $5.29B in that orders. Although AUD/NZD pullback from 200-HMA joins bearish MACD signals and upbeat data from New Zealand to weigh on the pair towards the monthly low, also lowest since the mid-April, an immediate ascending support line near 1.0490 probes the sellers. Meanwhile, the weekly top around 1.0565 adds to the upside filter beyond the 200-HMA level of 1.0555. It’s worth mentioning that the AUD/NZD bears are less likely to relinquish controls unless witnessing a daily closing above October’s bottom close to 1.0600. AUD/NZD hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

Having witnessed a few consecutive days of optimism, the US equity bulls catch a breather on Wednesday. The reason could be spotted from mixed US data

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 173.77 points, or 0.58%.The S&P500 eased 5.76 points, or 0.16% after probing the record top.The Nasdaq Composite gains 57.08 points, or 0.47%.Having witnessed a few consecutive days of optimism, the US equity bulls catch a breather on Wednesday. The reason could be spotted from mixed US data as well as fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) amid no major positives from President-elect Joe Biden. Read: Forex Today: Dollar´s weakness continues Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI30) stepped back from record high while closing around 29,872.47 whereas S&P 500 fades upside momentum to challenge the all-time top while being mildly offered near 3,630 by press time. Even so, Nasdaq 100 benefited from the upbeat performance in tech shares, up nearly half a percent to 12,094.40. Despite the dense economic calendar, the North American traders couldn’t cheer any of the headline figures as the preliminary Q3 GDP eased a bit to 33.1% from 33.2% forecast while Weekly Jobless Claims surged. Further details suggest that the Durable Goods Orders grew more than 0.9% forecast to 1.3% in October whereas Michigan Consumer Sentiment weakened to 76.9 from 77.00 prior and expected. It's worth mentioning that the FOMC Minutes also failed to keep the bulls happy while highlighting December meeting as the key. Talking about the risk catalysts, the global COVID-19 infections grew past-60 million with the surge in the US hospitalization being a major concern. The absence of fresh developments at the vaccine front also tamed the market bulls. Elsewhere, Biden and company are yet to comment anything stronger to keep the market optimistic while chatters concerning extended lockdown in Germany and Brexit woes join the US sanctions over four companies, from China and Russia, concerning Iran missile program, to heavy the risks. That said, traders will have a few catalysts during the early Thursday and hence the market sentiment is likely to remain sluggish. Though, surprises can’t be ruled out from the risk news like US politics, covid and vaccine.

The euro’s bullish price action seen on the Asian and early European trading sessions has been limited below 0.8940. The pair has given away daily gai

EUR/GBP fails at 0.8940 and retreats to 0.8900 area.Pound strength wanes amid Brexit uncertainty.The euro remains dangerously close to key support at 0.8860.The euro’s bullish price action seen on the Asian and early European trading sessions has been limited below 0.8940. The pair has given away daily gains during the US session and has returned to the 0.8900 area to remain barely changed on the day. Brexit uncertainty weighs on the pound The common currency has ticked up for the second consecutive day on Wednesday against a slightly weaker pound.  The growing uncertainty about the Brexit talks UK and EU representatives continue trying to bring positions closer in sticking issues might be undermining GBP demand. Investors’ hopes for a post-Brexit trade deal have taken a hit on Wednesday as the European Commission president, Ursula van der Leyden, warned that a no-deal exit is still possible as the differences in fishing rights are threatening to block an agreement. The pair, however, has been unable to capitalize the downbeat Brexit news with the euro unable, so far,  to post a significant recovery to put distance from eight-month lows at 0.8860. EUR/GBP hovering above key support at 0.8860 From a technical perspective, the EUR/GBP is trading sideways above 0.8860 support area. Below here, bears might push the pair towards 0.8800/10 (May 4, 11 highs) and 0.8740 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March rally). On the upside, the pair should breach 0.8960 (November 19 high) to ease bearish pressure, and extend towards 0.9000 (November 12 and 13 high) and 0.9050/65 where the November 5 and 6 highs meet the 50 and 100-day SMAs. Technical levels to watch    

GBP/JPY is trading near its highs for the week, having at one point matched Tuesday’s high at 1.3980, before pulling back slightly. On the day, the pa

GBP/JPY is probing Tuesday’s highs at 139.80, ahead of a potential test of the key 140.00 level.GBP remained buoyant on Wednesday despite signs that Brexit talks are still deadlocked.GBP/JPY is trading near its highs for the week, having at one point matched Tuesday’s high at 1.3980, before pulling back slightly. On the day, the pair trades with gains of just over 30 pips or 0.2%. GBP bid despite Brexit deadlock Today’s Brexit updates indicate that negotiations between the EU and UK are still at a deadlock, with the French Foreign Minister publicly calling out the UK for running down the clock, something which well-connected UK sources have reportedly said the UK government sees as a way to put public pressure on the UK to make further concessions. Other EU sources have reportedly said that this was not a good week for talks. This comes on the back of EU Commission President von der Leyen saying on during the early part of the European session on Wednesday that she still could not say yet if there would be a deal. Regardless of signs of continued deadlock, GBP has been largely bulletproof. Market’s seem to be showing either signs of Brexit headline fatigue or confidence (or complacency…) that regardless of what brinksmanship goes on over the coming days, a deal is, in the end, the most likely eventuality given that it is strongly in the economic interests of both sides in the midst of the much larger Covid-19 health and economic crisis. GBP was also largely unresponsive to UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s sobering one-year spending review and Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts, which forecast a UK deficit of £394B in 2020/2021, which equates to 19% of GDP (the highest deficit in the country’s more than 300-year history). GBP/JPY eyes test of 140.00 With GBP/JPY probing Tuesday’s highs at 139.80, a break is seemingly becoming ever more likely. This would open up a test of the psychological 140.00 level. If this area of resistance also goes, then the route towards a test of highs of the month at 140.32 would be cleared. Conversely, to the downside, notable areas of support include the 139.00 round number, which also happens to coincide with the 61.2% Fibonacci retracement from the September high at 142.74 to low at 133.03. Not far below this area of support is the 16 November high at 138.88.GBP/JPY eight hour chart
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