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화요일, 6월 28, 2022

The GBP/USD pair retreated nearly 60 pips from the daily swing high touched during the early European session and dropped to a three-day low, around t

GBP/USD witnessed some intraday selling on Tuesday and dropped to a three-day low.Brexit woes, less hawkish BoE expectations continued acting as a headwind for sterling.Rising US bond yields revived the USD demand and contributed to the intraday selling.The GBP/USD pair retreated nearly 60 pips from the daily swing high touched during the early European session and dropped to a three-day low, around the 1.2235-1.2230 region in the last hour. The latest Brexit-related development over the Northern Ireland Protocol has raised the risk of fresh tension between Britain and the European Union. In fact, the UK House of Commons on Monday voted 295 to 221 in favour of a controversial bill that would unilaterally overturn part of Britain's divorce deal from the EU agreed in 2020. Apart from this, speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a more gradual approach towards raising interest rates amid fears of a UK recession acted as a headwind for the British pound. This, along with the emergence of some US dollar buying dragged the GBP/USD pair away from over a one-week high touched the previous day. The risk-on flow pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher, which, in turn, assisted the USD to reverse its modest intraday losses. That said, reduced bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit deeper losses for the GBP/USD pair, at least for the time being. The recent decline in commodity prices now seems to have eased concerns about the persistent rise in inflation. This, along with the worsening economic outlook, forced investors to reassess expectations for a faster policy tightening by the Fed. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Wednesday. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is also due to speak at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday, which would help investors determine the next leg of a directional move for the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, traders on Tuesday will take cues from the US macro data - the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index. Technical levels to watch  

Mexico Jobless Rate above expectations (3.1%) in May: Actual (3.3%)

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a: 3.4% (May) vs 3.1%

USD/IDR could likely face extra consolidation in the short-term horizon, noted Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research. Key

USD/IDR could likely face extra consolidation in the short-term horizon, noted Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research. Key Quotes “We highlighted last Monday (20 Jun, spot at 14,830) that USD/IDR ‘is likely to strengthen further but the major resistance at 14,950 is likely out of reach’. We added, ‘there is another resistance at 14,900’”. “USD/IDR rose to a high of 14,872 on Wednesday before pulling back. Shorter-term upward pressure has eased and USD/IDR is likely to trade sideways for this week, expected to be within a range of 14,720/14,870.”

Optimism prevails, pointing to a turnaround Tuesday for the financial markets, as the previous week’s upbeat global momentum returns and caps the broa

Gold Price rebound lacks follow-through bias, as Treasury yields firm up. USD stays sluggish amid a better mood, ahead of NATO, ECB Forum. Oil price surge keeps the demand for XAUUSD underpinned. Optimism prevails, pointing to a turnaround Tuesday for the financial markets, as the previous week’s upbeat global momentum returns and caps the broad US dollar recovery. Investors, however, remain wary ahead of the key NATO Summit and a policy panel of the heads of the Fed, BOE and ECB due later this week. The sluggish price action in the dollar is helping Gold Price recoup a part of Monday’s sharp decline. The upside in the yellow metal lacks traction, as the US Treasury yields resume their gradual recovery mode amid lingering recession fears and an aggressive Fed rate-hike track. Buyers also remain cautious, as a slew of key US economic data are due for release later this week, which may prompt markets to re-price the hawkish Fed expectations, in turn impacting gold valuations. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Can XAUUSD bulls defend the critical $1,820 support?Gold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluence Detector shows that Gold Price is approaching the strong support around $1,820, where the previous day’s low and the Bollinger Band four-hour Lower merge. Selling interest may pick up steam below the latter, exposing the convergence of the previous week’s low, Fibonacci 23.6% one-month and pivot point one-day S1 at $1,816. The line in the sand for gold optimists is seen at the pivot point one-week S1 at $1,813. On the flip side, bulls need to find a strong foothold above the $1,829 barrier, which is the confluence of the SMA5 one-day, Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and one-week. The next stop for bulls is aligned at the SMA10 one-day at $1,832, above which the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at $1,835 will come to sellers’ rescue. Further up, the intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and pivot point one-day R1 at $1,837 will offer stiff resistance. Here is how it looks on the tool   About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

The AUD/USD pair attracted fresh buying on Tuesday and climbed to a four-day high, around the 0.6965 region during the first half of the European sess

A combination of supporting factors assisted AUD/USD to regain positive traction.The risk-on mood benefitted the risk-sensitive aussie amid subdued USD demand.The recent fall in commodity prices could cap gains for the resources-linked aussie.The AUD/USD pair attracted fresh buying on Tuesday and climbed to a four-day high, around the 0.6965 region during the first half of the European session. Hopes that inflation might be nearing its peak boosted investors' confidence, which was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets. This, in turn, offered some support to the risk-sensitive amid subdued US dollar price action. The softening inflation expectations forced investors to scale back their expectations for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The repricing of the future Fed rate hikes kept the USD bulls on the defensive and provided a modest lift to the AUD/USD pair. That said, a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields helped limit any deeper losses for the buck, which, so far, has managed to hold above a one-week low touched the previous day. Apart from this, the recent decline in commodity prices might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the resources-linked Australian dollar. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has bottomed out and positioning for any meaningful upside. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Wednesday. Technical levels to watch  

The USD/JPY pair attracted fresh buying in the vicinity of the 135.00 psychological mark on Tuesday and turned positive for the third successive day.

A combination of supporting factors pushed USD/JPY higher for the third successive day.The risk-on impulse undermined the safe-haven JPY and remained supportive of the move.Rising US bond yields further impressed bulls, though subdued USD demand might cap gains.The USD/JPY pair attracted fresh buying in the vicinity of the 135.00 psychological mark on Tuesday and turned positive for the third successive day. The momentum pushed spot prices to a three-day high during the early part of the European session, with bulls now looking to reclaim the 136.00 round figure. A generally positive tone around the equity markets undermined the Japanese yen and turned out to be a key factor that acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. The risk-on impulse pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher, which resulted in the widening of the gap between the US-Japanese bond yields. This, along with a big divergence in the monetary policy stance adopted by the Fed (hawkish) and the Bank of Japan (dovish), continued lending support to the major. On the other hand, the US dollar languished near a one-week low touched on Monday amid reduced bets for aggressive Fed rate hike moves. The recent slump in commodity prices raised hopes that inflation might be nearing its peak and forced investors to reassess expectations that Fed would tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace. This continued weighing on the USD, which might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets around the USD/JPY pair and cap gains, at least for now. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and supports prospects for the resumption of the recent strong upward trajectory witnessed since early March. Sustained strength back above the 136.00 mark will reaffirm the constructive outlook and allow the USD/JPY pair to aim back to test a 24-year high, around the 136.70 region touched last week. Market participants now look forward to the US macro data for a fresh trading impetus. Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Wednesday. Technical levels to watch  

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) fell from previous 6.1% to 0.3% in May

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 3.8% to 0% in May

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders reached a deal to explore a price cap on Russian oil, Reuters reports, having read the G7 communique. “G7 leaders have

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders reached a deal to explore a price cap on Russian oil, Reuters reports, having read the G7 communique. “G7 leaders have agreed to study placing global price caps on imports of Russian energy to curb Moscow's ability to fund its invasion of Ukraine and to contribute up to $5 billion to address global food insecurity,” per Reuters.   developing story ....

USD/MYR remains side-lined and is seen trading within the 4.3900-4.4100 range for the time being, according to Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Ec

USD/MYR remains side-lined and is seen trading within the 4.3900-4.4100 range for the time being, according to Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research. Key Quotes “We highlighted last Monday (20 Jun, spot at 4.4000) that ‘momentum is weakening and a break of 4.3870 could lead to a deeper pullback to 4.3800’. Our expectations did not materialize as USD/MYR traded sideways for the whole week and within a narrow range of 4.3950/4.4055.” “Shorter-term momentum indicators are neutral and USD/MYR could continue to trade sideways this week, likely between 4.3900 and 4.4100.”

The White House said in a press release on Tuesday that at the NATO summit in Madrid, leaders will discuss the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Uk

The White House said in a press release on Tuesday that at the NATO summit in Madrid, leaders will discuss the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the NATO summit, the “alliance will take historic decisions to strengthen the alliance's collective defense and security,” the White House said.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Tuesday that the central bank’s new “anti-fragmentation tool should have no limits if ma

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Tuesday that the central bank’s new “anti-fragmentation tool should have no limits if market moves are unwarranted.” Additional quotes ECB should avoid hard triggers based on spreads or single indicators for the anti-fragmentation instrument. Credibility of fiscal policy should be key determining factor in the deployment of anti-fragmentation instrument. Comfortable with a 50-bps rate hike in sept; 200 bps of hikes needed "relatively fast". Inflation at risk of moving to a higher regime.

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders released a joint statement on Tuesday, calling on all partners to avoid unjustified restrictive trade measures that ri

The Group of Seven (G7) leaders released a joint statement on Tuesday, calling on all partners to avoid unjustified restrictive trade measures that risk food insecurity. Additional takeaways Stands by commitment to keep food and agricultural markets open. Calls on those partners with large food stockpiles to make them available without distorting markets. We also commit to scaling up essential nutrition services in countries with the highest burden of malnutrition.

During the course of yesterday, gold shed all of the gains it had initially accrued and dropped to $1,820. Meanwhile, silver trades at $21 as compared

During the course of yesterday, gold shed all of the gains it had initially accrued and dropped to $1,820. Meanwhile, silver trades at $21 as compared with around $25 at the beginning of the quarter. ETF outflows play their part in the poor performance of precious metals, according to strategists at Commerzbank. Gold/silver ratio is at a very high level at around 86 “Another sizeable outflow from ETFs presumably put pressure on gold: holdings in the gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg were reduced by a good 6 tons yesterday. The momentum of outflows has picked up pace again of late.”  “The silver ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have seen considerable outflows in recent weeks and months. Their holdings have been slashed by 1,100 tons since the beginning of the month. Outflows since the start of the quarter have so far totalled more than 1,300 tons.” “The weakness of silver is also evident in the gold/silver ratio, which is at a very high level at around 86. As an investment metal, silver is under pressure not only from gold – as an industrial metal, it has also been facing headwinds generated by the sharp falls in metals prices.”  

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research suggests USD/THB faces further consolidation in the near term. Key Quotes “We highli

Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group’s Global Economics & Markets Research suggests USD/THB faces further consolidation in the near term. Key Quotes “We highlighted last Monday (20 Jun, spot at 35.25) that USD/THB ‘could rise above 35.40 but the next resistance at 35.70 is unlikely to come under threat’. Our view was not wrong as USD rose to a high of 35.58 on Friday.” “Shorter-term upward momentum has waned somewhat and this coupled with overbought conditions suggests that USD/THB is unlikely to strengthen much further. For this week, USD/THB is more likely to trade between 35.27 and 35.60.”  

FX option expiries for June 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0200 539m 1.0300 519m 1.0450 498m

FX option expiries for June 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.0200 539m 1.0300 519m 1.0450 498m 1.0595 735m 1.0750 390m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.2000 664m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      135.00 350m - USD/CHF: USD amounts         0.9425 480m 0.9550 471m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts   0.7000 252m 0.7040 324m

Investors keep the optimism around the European currency well in place and encourage EUR/USD to approach once again to the 1.0600 neighbourhood on tur

EUR/USD adds to Monday’s advance and flirts with 1.0600.Germany GfK Consumer Confidence dropped to -27.4 in July.ECB-speak, US Consumer Confidence next of note later on Tuesday.Investors keep the optimism around the European currency well in place and encourage EUR/USD to approach once again to the 1.0600 neighbourhood on turnaround Tuesday. EUR/USD focuses on ECB, data EUR/USD prints gains for the third consecutive session on Tuesday and remains en route to challenge the 1.0600 mark and beyond in the very near term, always on the back of the intense offered stance in the US dollar. Daily gains in the pair are so far bolstered by the equally positive performance of the German 10y bund yields, which extend the bounce to new 3-day highs near the 1.65% level. The upbeat mood in the pair remains underpinned by the persistent bid bias in the broader risk complex amidst dollar weakness and higher US yields across the curve. In addition, hawkish comments from Board member Kazaks advocating for a 50 bps rate hike at the September meeting seem to have also lent legs to the pair so far. Later in the session, ECB Lagarde and other rate-setters (Lane, Panetta) are also due to speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Earlier in the euro docket, Germany’s Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK worsened a tad to -27.4 for the month of July (from -26.2). Across the pond, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence will be the salient event seconded by flash trade balance figures and house prices measured by the FHFA’s index. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD regained composure and pierced the 1.0600 mark amidst further improvement in the risk appetite trend so far this week. A close above this level, however, remains elusive for the time being. In the meantime, the single currency continues to closely follow any developments surrounding the ECB and its plans to design a de-fragmentation tool in light of the upcoming start of the hiking cycle. However, EUR/USD is still far away from exiting the woods and it is expected to remain at the mercy of dollar dynamics, geopolitical concerns and the Fed-ECB divergence, while higher German yields, persistent elevated inflation in the euro area and a decent pace of the economic recovery in the region are also supportive of an improvement in the mood around the euro.Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Forum on Central Banking, Germany G7 Summit, ECB Lagarde, Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) - ECB Forum on Central Banking, EMU Final Consumer Confidence, EMU Economic Sentiment, Germany Flash Inflation Rate, ECB Lagarde (Wednesday) – Germany Retail Sales, Unemployment Change, Unemployment Rate. EMU Unemployment Rate, ECB Lagarde (Thursday) – EMU, Germany Final Manufacturing PMI, EMU Flash Inflation Rate (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Fragmentation risks. Kickstart of the ECB hiking cycle in July? Asymmetric economic recovery post-pandemic in the euro bloc. Impact of the war in Ukraine on the region’s growth prospects. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is gaining 0.07% at 1.0588 and a breakout of 1.0615 (weekly high June 27) would target 1.0773 (monthly high June 9) en route to 1.0786 (monthly high May 30). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.0358 (monthly low June 15) followed by 1.0348 (2022 low May 13) and finally 1.0300 (psychological level).  

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers the Introductory speech on Day 2 of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portu

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers the Introductory speech on Day 2 of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Her speech is titled ‘Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area.’ Further comments Commitment to rate hikes is data-dependent. Intend to raise rates by 25 bps in July. There is an optionality to raise by more in September. If inflation outlook does not improve, we will have sufficient information to move faster. Beyond September, a “gradual but sustained” path of further rate increases will be appropriate. In addressing fragmentation, ECB will use flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due under PEPP. Also decided to accelerate the completion of the design of a new instrument.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers the Introductory speech on Day 2 of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portu

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers the Introductory speech on Day 2 of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Her speech is titled ‘Price stability and policy transmission in the euro area.’ Additional quotes There are merits in separating policy tools again. At the same time, inflation pressures are intensifying and broadening through the domestic economy. Supply shocks hitting the economy could linger for longer. These vulnerabilities are now contributing to the uneven transmission of the normalization of our policy across jurisdictions.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers the Introductory speech on Day 2 of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portu

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers the Introductory speech on Day 2 of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Key quotes Inflation in the euro area is undesirably high. This means moving gradually if there is uncertainty about the outlook, but with the option to act decisively. The new instrument will have to be effective, while being proportionate and containing sufficient safeguards to preserve the impetus of member states towards a sound fiscal policy. Measures to preserve transmission could be used at any level of interest rates – so long as they were designed not to interfere with the monetary policy stance.

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) registered at 2.7% above expectations (-0.7%) in April

Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) came in at 22%, above expectations (15.8%) in April

Austria Purchasing Manager Index fell from previous 56.6 to 51.2 in June

The New Zealand dollar is facing depreciation pressure. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the NZD/USD pair to slump under the 0.62 level. Losi

The New Zealand dollar is facing depreciation pressure. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the NZD/USD pair to slump under the 0.62 level. Losing ground on a softer economic outlook “We see pressures continuing to build in coming weeks, and anticipate a retest of recent NZD/USD lows below 0.62.”  “A key area of resistance in NZD/USD is between 0.6530 (January low) and 0.6576 (June high). While spot is held below this band, risk is for another test of the downside.” “Higher rates are a negative that will be exacerbated by weak activity in China – New Zealand’s largest trading partner, and by the outrun of higher rates and softer outlooks globally. In this environment, higher policy rates in New Zealand will not support the currency beyond present levels.”

AUD/USD is trading above the 0.69 level. Nonetheless, economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the pair to test its May low of 0.6830. Reserve Bank o

AUD/USD is trading above the 0.69 level. Nonetheless, economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the pair to test its May low of 0.6830. Reserve Bank of Australia improbable to support the aussie “Due to the impact on activity from RBA tightening, we do not view hikes already delivered or subsequent moves as priced by the market, as being supportive for the AUD.” “On growth, downgrading of Australian forecasts will see the current positive differentials, and AUD support from those, eroded.” “We favour AUD/USD trading back toward its May low of 0.6830, with risk of deeper losses on indications of softer economic activity.”  

With the Fed's terminal rate surpassing the Bank of Canada's, economists at CIBC Capital Markets have weakened their forecast for the loonie into 2023

With the Fed's terminal rate surpassing the Bank of Canada's, economists at CIBC Capital Markets have weakened their forecast for the loonie into 2023. They expect the USD/CAD pair to reach 1.33 in early 2023. CAD profile softer as Fed races to higher terminal rate “A likely 75 bps hike by the Bank of Canada in July, and the potential for another move of that magnitude in September if we don't see enough of an inflation deceleration by then, should be aggressive enough to allow USD/CAD to remain around current levels over the next three months.” “Markets appear to be overpricing both BoC and Fed tightening this year, but comparatively more for the BoC, and that recalibration will lead the CAD to end the year weaker, with USD/CAD expected to reach 1.31 by then.” “In 2023, the loonie could weaken further on a global slowdown in growth as interest rate hikes take a toll on activity, which will weigh on commodity prices and dent nominal exports for Canadian natural resource producers. Look for USD/CAD to reach 1.33 in early 2023, before recouping some of that ground further into the year as the USD loses favour globally.”  

The S&P 500 rallied 6.5% last week, including a 3.1% gain on Friday. Economists at UBS expect the index to trade around 3,900 in a soft landing scenar

The S&P 500 rallied 6.5% last week, including a 3.1% gain on Friday. Economists at UBS expect the index to trade around 3,900 in a soft landing scenario by year-end. S&P 500 to trade around 3,300 if earnings forecasts were revised down to around -15% “In a soft-landing scenario, in which earnings growth expectations for 2023 are close to flat year-on-year, we would expect the S&P 500 to end the year close to current levels at 3,900.” “If worsening economic data leads earnings forecasts to be revised down to around -15%, in line with average declines during recessions, we would expect the S&P 500 to trade around 3,300.”  

GBP/USD is moving below 1.23. The Bank of England (BoE) prioritizing growth over containing inflation suggests GBP downside, compounded by political r

GBP/USD is moving below 1.23. The Bank of England (BoE) prioritizing growth over containing inflation suggests GBP downside, compounded by political risks, including a potential trade spat with the EU, economists at CIBC Capital Markets report. BoE still hiking but risks undershooting expectations “Sliding consumer sentiment and spending, as real earnings head lower, will help squeeze demand-side inflationary pressures out of the system. Building macro headwinds suggest that the BoE will not be as aggressive as the market discounts. We expect a protracted policy pause post once rates reach 1.75% in September.” “As the growth versus inflation trade-off remains challenging, expect the bank to prioritize growth. This favours GBP downside, especially as ongoing political risks, including a potential trade spat with the EU, remains real.”  

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained policy stability once again. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the USD/JPY to stay on a strong footing. BoJ

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained policy stability once again. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets expect the USD/JPY to stay on a strong footing. BoJ Maintains yield curve control “The bank continues to underline that it expects short and long-term policy rates to remain at ‘present or lower levels.’ That commitment is notable when combined with BoJ Governor Kuroda maintaining that he anticipates no obvious change in the strategy of limiting 10-year JGB yields, under the YCC regime, to 0.25%.” “Although the monetary authorities are paying attention to the JPY, they are not necessarily signaling a lack of tolerance for JPY weakness, rather they are looking to avoid disorderly moves.” “As the BoJ signaled that 10-year JGB yields will continue to be capped, UST-JGB spreads point towards USD/JPY remaining elevated.”  

Inflation concerns and a lack of future scheduled meetings point to a 50 bps hike from the Riksbank. However, any benefits for SEK may only show up at

Inflation concerns and a lack of future scheduled meetings point to a 50 bps hike from the Riksbank. However, any benefits for SEK may only show up at a later stage due to the current unstable risk environment, in the view of economists at ING. Krona should struggle to stage a sustained rebound in the near term “A weaker krona, above-expectation inflation readings, and a lack of scheduled meetings later this year, mean a 50 bps rate hike from the Riksbank this Thursday looks highly likely.” “The environment for global equities is likely to remain challenging due to the combination of global slowdown fears and tighter monetary conditions, and the relatively illiquid (to other G10 FX) and high-beta krona should in our view struggle to stage a sustained rebound in the near term.” “We'll need to wait for a considerable stabilisation in global risk sentiment (that may only happen in 4Q) to see EUR/SEK re-connect with its rates differential, which unmistakenly argues for a weakening of the exchange rate.” “We still don't exclude a return to 10.10-10.20 by the end of this year, with the Riksbank's policy being a major driver of SEK restrengthening.”    

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that he expected a 25 bps rate hike in July while a 50 bps increas

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Martins Kazaks told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that he expected a 25 bps rate hike in July while a 50 bps increase is the base case scenario in September. Additional quotes Though it may be worth looking at 50 bps rate hike in July. It may be reasonable to frontload rate hikes.

US monetary policy tightening still has a way to go and slower US growth will likely affect the rest of the world. Economists at HSBC expect the US do

US monetary policy tightening still has a way to go and slower US growth will likely affect the rest of the world. Economists at HSBC expect the US dollar to enjoy further gains. The peak has yet to come “As US policy tightening slowly takes hold, it might represent a further downside risk to global growth dynamics. In our view, the greater the downside risks to global growth, the greater the upside risks to the broad USD. The opposite should also hold true.” “Our USD framework has rested on two forces coming together causing it to strengthen, namely a hawkish Fed and slower global growth. These have underpinned and will continue to support our strong USD view for the months ahead.”

The pound continues to be rather unreactive to Brexit-related news. Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on Wednesday and a hawkish mes

The pound continues to be rather unreactive to Brexit-related news. Bank of England’s Governor Andrew Bailey will speak on Wednesday and a hawkish message could drag the EUR/GBP pair under 0.86, economists at ING report. Still no impact from Brexit headlines “The UK Government proposed bill to unilaterally scrap part of the Norther Ireland protocol yesterday, which will now need to be voted by the House. There are surely many indications that the pound is largely pricing in this scenario, and markets remain mostly focused on other drivers of UK economic underperformance as well as assuming Brexit is not a major input in the BoE’s policy decision-making process at the moment.” “Tomorrow’s speech by BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey in Sintra will be the main event of the week. A broadly hawkish message could further help the pound stabilise and possibly drag EUR/GBP back below 0.86.”  

The European Central Bank's Sintra forum today sees the introductory speech and press conference by Christine Lagarde. With markets pricing in 150 bps

The European Central Bank's Sintra forum today sees the introductory speech and press conference by Christine Lagarde. With markets pricing in 150 bps of ECB tightening by year-end, the EUR/USD pair is unlikely to break higher, economists at ING report. A high bar for hawkish surprises in Sintra “Lagarde is expected to provide some colour on how seriously the ECB is considering a 50 bps rate hike in September in light of recent activity survey pointing at a rapidly deteriorating picture for the eurozone. Also, more details of the anti-fragmentation tools discussed earlier this month will likely be addressed.” “A look at rate expectations embedded in the swaps market – 150 bps of tightening fully in the price by year-end – suggests that the bar for a hawkish surprise is likely set quite high, and we doubt that Sintra will be the catalyst for a significant break higher in EUR/USD.” “A softer dollar environment could help a move and stabilisation in the 1.0600-1.0650 range this week, even if we see a return to 1.0500 in the remainder of 3Q as more likely.”  

USD strength extended as Federal Reserve races ahead with tightening, but that will fade into 2023 as other major central banks press on with normaliz

USD strength extended as Federal Reserve races ahead with tightening, but that will fade into 2023 as other major central banks press on with normalizing policy, economists at CIBC Capital Markets report. Near term risks tilted towards the USD building further on its gains “While Chair Powell was less committal on the possibility of another 75 bps hike in July, we still see the risks tilted in that direction.” “We ultimately see slowing growth and a turn in inflation as convincing the Fed to back away from what its most hawkish members are now advocating, paving the way towards a softer greenback in 2023. But that's not going to be apparent in the next few months, leaving the near term risks still tilted towards the USD retaining or even building further on its recent gains.”  

USD/CNH is expected to keep the trade between 6.6600 and 6.7400 in the next few weeks, commented FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser

USD/CNH is expected to keep the trade between 6.6600 and 6.7400 in the next few weeks, commented FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that ‘the bias for USD is on the downside towards 6.6700’. Our view did not materialize as USD traded sideways between 6.773 and 6.6940. Momentum indicators are mostly neutral and USD could continue to trade sideways. Expected range for today, 6.6780/6.7050.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected USD to trade sideways between 6.6600 and 6.7400 since last Monday (20 Jun, spot at 6.7080). While shorter-term downward momentum has improved somewhat, there is no change in our view for now.”

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), extends the downside and probes the sub-104.00 region once again on turnaround Tuesday. US Dolla

DXY remains under pressure and breaches 104.00.US yields trade within a mixed fashion on Tuesday.Trade Balance, House Price Index, Consumer Confidence next on tap.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), extends the downside and probes the sub-104.00 region once again on turnaround Tuesday. US Dollar Index near multi-day lows The index sheds ground for the third consecutive session on Tuesday and returns to the area below the 104.00 mark on the back of the continuation of the risk-on sentiment and amidst the mixed performance in the US cash markets. In the meantime, dollar dynamics continue to look to the Fed’s planned normalization of its monetary conditions, always with the unconditional pledge to bring down inflation to the Fed’s target. On this, and according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike at the July 27 gathering is now around 92% from 0% just a month ago. In the US data space, advanced Goods Trade Balance figures are due seconded by the FHFA’s House Price Index and the Consumer Confidence gauged by the Conference Boar. What to look for around USD The index succumbs to further selling pressure amidst further improvement in the appetite for the risk complex in the first half of the week so far. The dollar, in the meantime, remains well supported by the Fed’s divergence vs. most of its G10 peers (especially the ECB) in combination with bouts of geopolitical effervescence, higher US yields and a potential “hard landing” of the US economy, all factors suggesting a stronger dollar in the next months.Key events in the US this week: Advanced Goods Trade Balance, House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, Final Q1 GDP Growth Rate (Wednesday) – PCE, Core PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Initial Claims (Thursday) – ISM Manufacturing, Final Manufacturing PMI (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Hard/soft/softish? landing of the US economy. Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. Fed’s more aggressive rate path this year and 2023. US-China trade conflict. Future of Biden’s Build Back Better plan. US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.10% at 103.83 and faces the next contention at 103.41 (weekly low June 16) seconded by 102.91 (55-day SMA) and finally 101.29 (monthly low May 30). On the other hand, a break above 104.94 (weekly high June 22) would expose 105.78 (2022 high June 15) and then 107.31 (monthly high December 2002).  

The June European Central Bank (ECB) underlined a move away from unconventional policy. But ECB policy gradualism suggests that euro bulls will have t

The June European Central Bank (ECB) underlined a move away from unconventional policy. But ECB policy gradualism suggests that euro bulls will have to wait until 2023 for an appreciation, economists at CIBC Capital Markets report. ECB tightening is imminent “The bank has clearly committed to policy gradualism, as they look to hike the deposit rate for the first time since 2014, by 25 bps.” “Absent a material correction in inflation and inflation expectations, we should expect 50 bps in September. Such a move will result in a positive deposit rate for the first time in eight years. This would favour long-term FX diversification appetite and residual EUR support. However, as the ECB looks to tighten policy, fragmentation risk, namely yields in peripheral markets blowing out, risking debt sustainability, remain a concern.”  “Avoidance of another round of debt concerns, allied to avoidance of fragmentation risks, will help limit near-term EUR downside against a USD which currently remains risk and rate supported.” “Over the medium run, expect diversification interest to sustain support EUR valuations.”  

The USD/CAD pair witnessed follow-through selling for the third successive day on Tuesday and broke through the 1.2865-1.2860 horizontal support durin

USD/CAD continued losing ground for the third straight day and dropped to over a two-week low.Bullish crude oil prices underpinned the loonie and exerted pressure amid subdued USD demand.Reduced bets for aggressive Fed rate hikes, a positive risk tone weighed on the safe-haven buck.The USD/CAD pair witnessed follow-through selling for the third successive day on Tuesday and broke through the 1.2865-1.2860 horizontal support during the early European session. The downward trajectory dragged spot prices to over a two-week low, around the 1.2830 region and was sponsored by a combination of factors. Concerns about tight global supplies amid expectations for fresh sanctions against Russian oil and gas exports that might come out of the G7 meeting pushed crude oil prices to a one-week high. This, along with rising bets for a 75 bps rate hike move by the Bank of Canada in July, continued underpinning the commodity-linked loonie. Apart from this, subdued US dollar demand exerted some downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. The recent decline in commodity prices raised hopes that inflation might be nearing its peak and forced investors to scale back expectations for more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. Apart from this, a goodish recovery in the global risk sentiment boosted investors' confidence, which was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets. This was seen as another factor that dented demand for the safe-haven buck. The risk-on flow offered some support to the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with recession fears could help limit deeper losses for the greenback and help limit losses for the USD/CAD pair. Investors remain concerned that rapidly rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions would pose challenges to global economic growth. This might keep a lid on any optimistic move in the markets and lend support to the USD. That said, sustained weakness below the 1.2865-1.2860 congestion zone favours bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move for the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket - featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment will drive the USD demand. Market participants will further take cues from oil price dynamics to grab short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. That said, traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks in a panel discussion during the latter part of the week. Technical levels to watch  

USD/CNH takes offers to renew intraday low around 6.6685 as sellers cheer upbeat headlines from China during early Tuesday morning in Europe. “China w

USD/CNH plummets almost 200 pips on upbeat headlines from China.China reduces quarantine time for international travelers, vows timely policy measures to cope with economic risks.Sellers remain cautious as G7 updates challenge risk-on mood.US CB Consumer Confidence, Fedspeak eyed for fresh impulse.USD/CNH takes offers to renew intraday low around 6.6685 as sellers cheer upbeat headlines from China during early Tuesday morning in Europe. “China will halve to seven days its COVID-19 quarantine period for visitors from overseas, with a further three days spent at home, health authorities said on Tuesday,” per Reuters. Earlier in the day, Ou Hong, Deputy Secretary-General at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) told a news conference, per Reuters, “The government will implement its existing support measures while improving its policy toolbox.” The news also mentioned, “China will roll out tools in its policy reserve in a timely way to cope with more economic challenges, as COVID-19 outbreaks and risks from the Ukraine crisis pose a threat to employment and price stability.” On a different page, the Group of Seven (G7) officials signaled potential price caps for Russian oil and gas, which in turn challenges the latest risk-on mood. The news, however, is already known and failed to renew the US dollar strength. That said, the greenback gauge drops for the third consecutive day, down 0.11% around 103.84 at the latest, as market players await US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4. It’s worth noting that the mixed US data published on Monday challenge the Fed’s hawkish path and exert downside pressure on the greenback. On Monday, US Durable Goods Orders rose to 0.7% in May, versus 0.1% expected and 0.4% prior. That said, the widely tracked Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft also cross 0.3% market forecasts and previous readings to increase by 0.5% during the stated month. Further, the US Pending Home Sales also surprised the USD bulls with 0.7% MoM figures for May versus -3.7% expected and -4.0% prior. The YoY figures, however, came in negative to -13.6% versus -9.8% prior. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, to -17.7 versus -3.1 forecasts and -7.3 prior. Moving on, US sentiment data and Fedspeak may entertain traders ahead of Wednesday’s ECB Forum as the key central bankers are scheduled to debate the monetary policies. Technical analysis USD/CNH bears attack a two-week-old support line near 6.6720, a daily closing below the same will direct the quote towards the monthly low near 6.6170.  

USD/CAD has pulled higher to fetch a recent 1.3079 high, before cooling off. A 1.3077-1.3079 double top contains USD for now, Benjamin Wong, Strategis

USD/CAD has pulled higher to fetch a recent 1.3079 high, before cooling off. A 1.3077-1.3079 double top contains USD for now, Benjamin Wong, Strategists at DBS Bank reports. Support is pegged into the 1.2767-1.2732 zone “We have a 1.3077-1.3079 double top that has seen a swift response of USD backtracking. There is as well the repeat of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern – albeit of a much smaller dose, and this should limit a USD decline on its own.” “A move under the 50-day moving average at 1.2812 needed to grease the lower towards the 1.2767-1.2732 support patch.”  

The relentless underperformance of the Hungarian forint in recent days will put additional pressure on Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) when it holds its

The relentless underperformance of the Hungarian forint in recent days will put additional pressure on Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) when it holds its monetary policy meeting today. Economists at Commerzbank expect the HUF to weaken if MNB hikes by only 50 basis points (bps). Pressure on MNB “HUF weakness has triggered some revision of expectations amongst market observers recently. A sizeable minority has switched to expecting a 100 bps hike instead. This means that, if MNB were to simply ignore such expectations and hike by 50 bps, there could be immediate further pressure on HUF.” “It will be interesting to watch today whether or not MNB sees more urgency in the situation, in view of no natural peaking in inflation yet. The HUF’s near-term trajectory will depend very much on the answer.”  

France Consumer Confidence came in at 82 below forecasts (84) in June

USD/CNY continues to hold around the 6.70 level. Economists at Commerzbank expect the pair to stabilize at this zone. People’s Bank of China pledges c

USD/CNY continues to hold around the 6.70 level. Economists at Commerzbank expect the pair to stabilize at this zone. People’s Bank of China pledges continued policy support “PBoC will ensure sufficient loans to key industries. Overall, the subtle message is one of a continued targeted and measured approach, and ongoing policy support via loans rather than interest rate cuts.” “On the currency front, the message was once again one of ‘a flexible and market-determined exchange rate’. We see stability as the key objective near term.”

USD/TRY seesaws around 16.50 as traders seek more clues to extend the latest recovery of the Turkish lira (TRY). In doing so, the pair remains sidelin

USD/TRY struggles for clear directions after bouncing off three-week low.Turkish President Erdogan signals to review minimum wage to battle inflation.US dollar weakenss, risk-on mood could entertain traders ahead of key data/events.USD/TRY seesaws around 16.50 as traders seek more clues to extend the latest recovery of the Turkish lira (TRY). In doing so, the pair remains sidelined during early Tuesday morning in Europe, after falling the most during 2022 in the last two days. The TRY pair refreshed its three-week low the previous day in an initial reaction to the Reuters news suggesting more restrictions over lira lending. “The Turkish lira rallied as much as 6% against the dollar on Monday after Turkiye moved to restrict lira lending to many companies with more than $1 million in foreign currency cash in the latest step to reverse a slide in the currency,” said Reuters. Also contributing to the pair’s weakness were comments from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan suggesting more wage hikes to battle inflation. “President Tayyip Erdogan said he has asked the Labour Ministry to review the minimum wage in Turkey due to persistently high inflation, after hiking it by 50% at the end of last year,” said the news shared via Reuters. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains pressured for the third consecutive day, at 103.83, down 0.12% intraday by the press time. It should be noted that the market sentiment improves as China cuts quarantine time for international travelers while also vowing to cope with economic risks. While portraying the mood, the US Treasury yields and stock futures pare the early-day losses to print mild gains. Moving on, updates from Turkey, mainly from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations’ meeting, will be important for the USD/TRY pair as Turkiye pushes allies to stop Sweden and Finland from joining NATO. Further, US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, will precede Wednesday’s ECB Forum as an important catalyst to determine short-term market moves. Technical analysis USD/TRY stays on the way to 50-DMA, around 16.00 by the press time, until keeping the downside break of an ascending trend line from May, previous support near 16.95.

In a benign environment, the EUR was able to further appreciate against USD. However, the risk in EUR/USD remains at the lower end, in the view of eco

In a benign environment, the EUR was able to further appreciate against USD. However, the risk in EUR/USD remains at the lower end, in the view of economists at Commerzbank. EUR/USD recovery remains fragile “It might begin to get more difficult for EUR to appreciate as concerns that the global economy might weaken are likely to put pressure on market sentiment.” “The risk of an energy crisis in connection with the war in Ukraine remains in place so that it is questionable whether investors will be willing to bank on further EUR gains.” “It is questionable whether the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the ECB forum in Sintra is going to provide any new momentum for EUR today.”  

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 28: The US Dollar Index is consolidating the overnight rebound around 104.00 in early European trading

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, June 28: The US Dollar Index is consolidating the overnight rebound around 104.00 in early European trading this Tuesday, as Asian stocks struggled for traction amid a mixed market mood. The US stock futures also reflected the same cautious trait, fluctuating between gains and losses so far. The narrative that the Fed rate hike bets have cooled off amid growing worries of a sharp economic slowdown remained in play. Stronger than expected US Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales data, however, hinted at a healthy American economy, which could withstand big rate increases by the Fed. Meanwhile, markets weighed on China’s commitment to continue with monetary policy support, as Beijing and Shanghai reported zero new covid cases after four months. The latest tech sell-off, led by the negative news for Tencent Holdings, kept investors on the edge. Amid a damp mood, the safe-haven demand for the US bonds is back, which is prompting a pullback in the US Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year US yields are down 0.50% on the day at 3.18%, having hit a day high of 3.22% on Monday. Traders also remain cautious ahead of a slew of speeches from the ECB policymakers and US Consumer Confidence data due for release later on Tuesday. The main event risk of this week, however, remains Wednesday’s policy panel between the Fed, BOE and ECB Chiefs at the annual ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal.EUR/USD is stuck in a tight range below 1.0600, unable to find any impetus from the latest Reuters report, citing that the ECB may unveil a new bond-buying scheme to cap yields/spreads at its July policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at the ECB Forum on Central Banking at 0800 GMT.GBP/USD is moving back and forth in a 25-pips range below 1.2300, as GBP traders remain wary amid looming Brexit risks. UK Foreign Minister Liz Truss said on Monday that they don't rule out using Article 16 further down the line. Meanwhile, “as expected the Northern Ireland protocol bill passed its first hurdle, with MPs voting 295 to 221 in favor despite heavy criticism from some Conservative backbenchers, including former Prime Minister Theresa May, who said the move is illegal and unnecessary,” The Guardian reported.USD/JPY keeps its volatile trading intact while within a defined range above 135.00, tracking the sentiment around yields and the dollar.Gold is staging a decent comeback above $1,825 ahead of the anticipated G7’s decision to ban imports of Russian gold to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow. Bitcoin is defending the $20,000 threshold, madly bid on the day. Ethereum is up 0.50% on a daily basis, battling $1,200.

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, USD/JPY seems to have now moved to a consolidative phase within the 134.00-13

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, USD/JPY seems to have now moved to a consolidative phase within the 134.00-136.50 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for a weaker USD yesterday was incorrect as it rebounded to a high of 135.54. The rebound has scope to extend but any advance is unlikely to break the strong resistance at 136.00. On the downside, a breach of 134.90 (minor support is at 135.20) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from last Friday (24 Jun, spot at 134.85) where the recent pullback in USD has scope to extend to 133.50. USD has not been able to make much headway on the downside and downward pressure has more or less dissipated. In other words, USD is not expected to move to 133.50. Overall, USD is likely to trade within a range of 134.00/136.50 for now.”

Open interest in natural gas futures markets extended the downtrend by around 13.5K contracts at the beginning of the week, noted advanced prints from

Open interest in natural gas futures markets extended the downtrend by around 13.5K contracts at the beginning of the week, noted advanced prints from CME Group. On the other hand, volume remained erratic and increased by around 43.5K contracts. Natural Gas looks supported around $6.00 Monday’s decent gains in prices of natural gas was accompanied by the persistent decline in open interest, which keeps curtailing prospects of a sustainable rebound at least in the very near term. In the meantime, the commodity seems to have met a tough support around the $6.00 mark per MMBtu.

Gold attracted some dip-buying on Tuesday and reversed a part of the overnight sharp retracement slide from the very important 200-day SMA. The XAUUSD

Gold regained positive traction on Tuesday and recovered a part of the overnight losses.Reduced bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes, recession fears extended some support.Modest USD uptick acted as a headwind and kept a lid on any further gains for the metal.Gold attracted some dip-buying on Tuesday and reversed a part of the overnight sharp retracement slide from the very important 200-day SMA. The XAUUSD held on to its modest gains through the early European session and was last seen trading just above the $1,825 level, up less than 0.15% for the day. The recent sharp decline in commodity prices seems to have eased concerns about the persistent rise in inflationary pressures. This, in turn, forced investors to reassess the prospects for more aggressive rate hikes by the Fed, which was reinforced by the recent fall in the US Treasury bond yields. Apart from this, growing recession fears assisted the non-yielding gold to regain some positive traction. Despite softening inflation expectations, investors remain worried that rapidly rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions would pose challenges to global economic growth. This was evident from the prevalent cautious mood around the equity markets, which offered additional support to the safe-haven gold amid expectations that some G7 countries plan to ban bullion imports from Russia. As a way to tighten sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the US, UK, Japan, and Canada could announce a ban on new gold imports from Russia during the G7 summit this week. This was seen as another factor that contributed to the bid tone surrounding gold prices. The upside, however, remains capped amid a modest US dollar uptick, which tends to undermine the dollar-denominated commodity. Even from a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures near a technically significant moving average favours bearish traders. It, however, would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket - featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index, for some impetus later during the early North American session. Technical levels to watch  

The AUD/USD pair is displaying an inventory distribution structure in a narrow range of 0.6918-0.6936 in the Asian session. The major has auctioned si

The Symmetrical Triangle formation is advocating a squeeze in volatility going further.Aussie bulls have faced barricades around the 200-EMA at 0.6950.The RSI (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range which signals a consolidation ahead.The AUD/USD pair is displaying an inventory distribution structure in a narrow range of 0.6918-0.6936 in the Asian session. The major has auctioned sideways in the entire Asian session and is expected to continue its sideways streak further till the occurrence of any potential trigger that will bring a decisive move in the asset. On an hourly scale, the asset is forming a Symmetrical Triangle that signals for a volatility contraction followed by a breakout in the same. The upward sloping trendline is placed from Thursday’s low at 0.6868 while the downward sloping trendline is plotted from June 21 high at 0.6994. The 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6950 has acted as a major hurdle for the aussie bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a range of 40.00-60.00, which indicates a rangebound move ahead. A decisive move below Thursday’s low at 0.6868 will activate the downside break of the above-mentioned chart pattern, which will drag the asset towards May 12 low and the round-level support at 0.6829 and 0.6800 respectively. Alternatively, the aussie bulls could dictate the asset price if the major overstep Wednesday’s high at 0.6962. This will drive the asset towards the psychological resistance at 0.7000, followed by June 13 high at 0.7035. AUD/USD hourly chart  

Platinum Price (XPT/USD) retreats to $910.00, after bouncing off the yearly low the previous day. In doing so, the precious metal portrays failure to

Platinum prices fail to extend corrective pullback from six-month low.Previous support line from December 2021, three-week-old resistance line limit recovery moves.November 2020 lows could lure bears below $898.00, RSI may test further downside.Platinum Price (XPT/USD) retreats to $910.00, after bouncing off the yearly low the previous day. In doing so, the precious metal portrays failure to cross the support-turned-resistance line from late 2021. Adding strength to the bearish bias is the downbeat RSI (14) line, not oversold, as well as a downward sloping trend line from June 06. That said, the metal prices are likely to drop towards the latest trough surrounding $898.00. However, the RSI may challenge any further downside of the XPT/USD prices. Should the quote remains bearish past $898.00, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards the latest 2020 lows surrounding $840.00 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, the previous support line and a three-week-long descending trend line, respectively around $914.00 and $922.00, guard the short-term recovery of the platinum prices. In a case where the XPT/USD manage to cross the $922.00 hurdle, the 200-SMA level near $992 may probe the bulls before directing them to the monthly high surrounding $1,036. To sum up, the platinum price stays depressed but further downside needs validation from the yearly low of $898.00. Platinum: Daily chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

Denmark Retail Sales (YoY): -7% (May) vs previous 9.7%

Sweden Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations (1.7B) in May: Actual (-1.9B)

Sweden Retail Sales (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (1.5%) in May

Sweden Retail Sales (YoY) registered at -2.3%, below expectations (1.8%) in May

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -27.4 above expectations (-27.7) in July

Gold shaved off the early gains and fell nearly $20 from the highest point of the day to settle Monday in the red at $1,823. Can XAUUSD bulls defend t

Gold shaved off the early gains and fell nearly $20 from the highest point of the day to settle Monday in the red at $1,823. Can XAUUSD bulls defend the critical $1,820 support? FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. The path of least resistance remains to the downside in the near term “Gold bulls are testing the bearish commitments at the critical rising trendline support at $1,820. If the latter is cracked on a daily closing basis, then it would confirm a downside break from a two-week-old pennant formation. A fresh downtrend will kick in, with sellers targeting the $1,800 mark. Ahead of that Friday’s low of $1,1817 and the June 15 low of $1,808 could help limit the decline.” “Bulls need a sustained move above the $1,840 supply zone, which is the intersection of the short-tern critical 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) and the falling trendline (triangle) resistance. The next hurdle for buyers is seen at the mildly bullish 200 DMA at $1,845.”  

The NZD/USD pair extended its sideways price moves for the second straight day on Tuesday and remained confined in a range around the 0.6300 mark head

NZD/USD struggled to gain any meaningful traction and oscillated in a familiar trading range.The cautious mood acted as a headwind for the risk-sensitive kiwi amid a modest USD uptick.Reduced bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes might cap the USD and lend some support.The NZD/USD pair extended its sideways price moves for the second straight day on Tuesday and remained confined in a range around the 0.6300 mark heading into the European session. Despite hopes that inflation might be nearing its peak, investors remain concerned that rapidly rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions would pose challenges to global economic growth. This was evident from the prevalent cautious mood around the equity markets, which, in turn, acted as a headwind for the risk-sensitive kiwi. The downside, however, remains cushioned, at least for the time being, amid subdued US dollar demand. The recent decline in commodity prices has eased concerns about the persistent rise in inflationary pressures. Apart from this, recession fears forced investors to trim their bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and undermined the USD. The mixed fundamental backdrop, so far, has failed to assist the NZD/USD pair to gain any meaningful traction. Even from a technical perspective, spot prices have been oscillating in a familiar trading range over the past two weeks or so, which further makes it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction before placing fresh bets. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index later during the early North American session. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. The focus, however, will remain glued to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Thursday. Investors will look for fresh clues about the US central bank's policy tightening path. This will play a key role in driving the near-term USD demand and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the NZD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/GBP holds lower ground near the intraday low around 0.8620 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair ignores d

EUR/GBP remains pressured around intraday low, snaps two-day uptrend.UK’s NIP Bill crosses the first hurdle to become a law despite EU’s warnings.ECB Forum appears the key event of the week, risk catalysts, Lagarde’s speech are important too.EUR/GBP holds lower ground near the intraday low around 0.8620 heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair ignores downbeat sentiment, as well as the risk-negative headlines concerning Brexit, as the US dollar rebound weighs on the regional currency. British policymakers in the House of Commons voted in favor of the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill late Monday. Even if the NIP has multiple hurdles to cross before becoming legislation, the European Union’s (EU) trade warnings make the latest passage a grim event for the GBP/USD traders. “Despite some fierce criticism, lawmakers voted 295 to 221 in favor of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would unilaterally overturn part of Britain's divorce deal from the EU agreed in 2020. The bill now proceeds to line-by-line scrutiny,” said Reuters. The Brexit move appears a political play to defend UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s position after criticism of the patygate scandal, as well as the Conservatives’ defeat in the recently held two parliamentary by-elections. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds from a one-week low to 104.00 amid the market’s sour sentiment, as well as amid firmer US Treasury yields. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.17% by the press time. The benchmark US bond coupons rose during the last two consecutive days. Moving on, speeches from the Bank of England’s (BOE) Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sir Jon Cunliffe and the European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Christine Lagarde will be important to watch for clear intraday directions, not to forget updates concerning the UK politics and Brexit. However, Wednesday’s ECB Forum is the key as major central bankers from the BOE and the Fed are scheduled to debate the monetary policies. Technical analysis Successful trading above an upward sloping support line from mid-April, near 0.8580 by the press time, keeps EUR/GBP buyers hopeful.  

The USD/CHF pair is trading in a minor range of 0.9551-0.9567 since the early Asian session as the unavailability of any potential trigger has shifted

USD/CHF is oscillating in a 0.9551-0.9567 range, following the footprints of the DXY.Investors are shifting their focus toward Fed Powell’s speech and the US GDP.A decline is expected in the ZEW survey- Expectations to -70.7 vs. -52.6 releaser earlier.The USD/CHF pair is trading in a minor range of 0.9551-0.9567 since the early Asian session as the unavailability of any potential trigger has shifted the FX domain in a consolidation phase. Earlier, the asset remained in the grip of bears after failing to sustain above the round-level resistance of 0.9600. It looks like the asset is following the footprints of the US dollar index (DXY). The DXY is struggling to cross the critical hurdle of 104.00 as investors are on the sidelines ahead of the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell. The speech from Fed Powell may dictate the likely monetary policy action for the July meeting. Investors should brace for the continuation of the jumbo rate hike from the Fed as the prior rate hike announcements have failed to make any significant impact on the inflation rate. The US economy is operating at an inflation rate of 8.6%, which is more than four times of the desired inflation rate. Apart from that, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers will also remain in focus. A preliminary estimate for the US GDP is -1.5% on an annual basis for the first quarter, similar to its previous release. No wonder, the US agency may reveal an upside surprise considering the upbeat US Durable Goods Orders, which were more than expectations. On the Swiss franc front, investors are focusing on the ZEW Survey- Expectations, which is due on Wednesday. As per the market consensus, the economic data could decline to -70.7 vs. -52.6 recorded earlier. A higher-than-expected figure will strengthen the Swiss franc bulls against the greenback.  

NZD/USD is predicted to navigate the 0.6240-0.6360 range in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang. Key

NZD/USD is predicted to navigate the 0.6240-0.6360 range in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday ‘the price actions still appear to be part of a consolidation’ and we expected NZD to ‘trade between 0.6270 and 0.6330’. Our view for consolidation was not wrong even though NZD traded within a narrower range than expected (0.6283/0.6326). NZD could continue to consolidate for now, likely between 0.6270 and 0.6325.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from yesterday (27 Jun, spot at 0.6310) still stands. As highlighted, it appears that NZD is still in a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade between 0.6240 and 0.6360 for now.”

ECB to drain cash in offset to new yield-capping scheme – Reuters more to come ....

ECB to drain cash in offset to new yield-capping scheme – Reuters   more to come ....

GBP/USD struggles for clear directions as it seesaws around two-week-long support surrounding 1.2260 heading into Tuesday’s London open. The cable pai

GBP/USD stays defensive after reversing from 21-day EMA.Impending bull cross on MACD, hesitance in breaking the support line tease buyers.Bears need validation from 1.2160 before targeting the yearly low.GBP/USD struggles for clear directions as it seesaws around two-week-long support surrounding 1.2260 heading into Tuesday’s London open. The cable pair portrayed a Doji candlestick the previous day while reversing from the 21-day EMA, which in turn suggested a reversal of the last week’s rebound. However, a looming bullish signal on the MACD joins a fortnight-old support line to challenge the pair bears. Even if the quote drops below 1.2260 immediate support, multiple levels surrounding 1.2180-60 marked since June 16 could challenge the pair’s further weakness. In a case where the GBP/USD bears manage to conquer the 1.2160 support, they can rush towards the yearly bottom near 1.1930-35, also the lowest levels since March 2020. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive until the Cable pair remains below the 21-day EMA level surrounding 1.2330. Should the quote rises past 1.2330, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June fall and a downward sloping trend line from late May, respectively around 1.2390 and 1.2470, will gain the market’s attention. Overall, GBP/USD remains on the bear’s radar but short-term corrections can’t be ruled out. GBP/USD: Daily chart Trend: Corrective pullback expected  

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders added around 2.4K contracts to their open interest positions on Monday, partially f

CME Group’s flash data for crude oil futures markets noted traders added around 2.4K contracts to their open interest positions on Monday, partially fading the previous daily pullback. Volume, instead, shrank for the third consecutive session on Monday, now by around 172K contracts. WTI faces minor resistance near $119.00 Monday’s improvement in prices of the WTI was in tandem with rising open interest. That said, the continuation of the recovery appears favoured in the very near term and with the immediate hurdle at $118.94 (June 17 high).

Ahead of a meeting of NATO leaders, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned the Chinese government, in an interview with the Australian Fina

Ahead of a meeting of NATO leaders, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warned the Chinese government, in an interview with the Australian Financial Review (AFR). Key quotes The Ukraine invasion had brought democratic nations together, "whether they be members of NATO, or non-members such as Australia". “The war "had shown attempts to impose change by force on a sovereign country meet resistance". “The Chinese government to learn the lessons of Russia's "strategic failure" in Ukraine.” Related readsChina extends anti-dumping tariffs on EU, UK steel fasteners importsPBOC Governor Yi: Policy support aims to boost credit than lowering interest rates

In the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD is still seen within the 1.2165-1.2380 range in the short term.

In the opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD is still seen within the 1.2165-1.2380 range in the short term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted that GBP ‘could continue to range trade, the slightly firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 1.2245/1.2335’. GBP subsequently traded between 1.2239 and 1.2331 before closing largely unchanged at 1.2265 (-0.07%). Further range-trading would not be surprising, likely within a range of 1.2235/1.2330.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the same view since early last week where the outlook for GBP is mixed and we expect GBP to range-trade. There is no change in our view for now even though a 1.2165/1.2380 range (vs 1.2130/1.2380 previously) is likely enough to contain the price actions in GBP, at least within these few days.”

Markets in the Asian session are trading mixed as the US indices traded subdued on Monday. The unavailability of any potential trigger has paused the

Asian equities have witnessed a corrector after a firmer recovery as oil advances.The unavailability of any potential trigger has turned the DXY sideways.A speech from Fed Powell will provide hints of likely monetary policy action in July.Markets in the Asian session are trading mixed as the US indices traded subdued on Monday. The unavailability of any potential trigger has paused the global assets. The US dollar index (DXY) is trading lackluster in the Asian session as investors are awaiting the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, which is due on Wednesday. Also, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers will release along with Fed Powell’s speech. At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 added 0.25% while China A50 eased 0.17%, Hang Seng surrendered 0.80%, and Nifty50 eased 0.62%. The odds of a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have advanced as the upbeat Durable Goods Orders have indicated that the demand prospects in the US economy are rock solid. Considering the forecasts for the US economic data at 0.1%, investors believed earlier that rate hikes by the Fed have impacted significantly on the growth forecasts. However, the release of the economic data at 0.7%, much higher than the estimates, and the prior print of 0.5% have empowered the Fed to announce policy tightening measures without much hesitation. On the oil front, a firmer rebound in the oil prices has brought a correction in the Asian equities after a strong recovery. Investors have returned to the betting counter of supply constraints rather than taking chances on global recession fears. The oil prices have climbed above $110.00 and are holding above the same effortlessly.  

According to preliminary readings from CME Group for gold futures markets, open interest remained choppy and went up by around 1.1K contracts on Monda

According to preliminary readings from CME Group for gold futures markets, open interest remained choppy and went up by around 1.1K contracts on Monday. Volume followed suit and rose by around 6.3K contracts. Gold under pressure below the 200-day SMA Prices of the ounce troy of gold started the week on the defensive amidst rising open interest and volume, which is suggestive that further decline is favoured in the very near term. That said, the yellow metal is expected to face further weakness while below the key 200-day SMA, today at $1,844.

Steel Price extends the previous week’s recovery towards 4,300 Chinese yuan (CNH), around 4,280 CNH heading into Tuesday’s European session. The metal

Steel Price remains firmer for the third consecutive day, keeping the bounce off yearly low.Over 6.0% fall in the global steel output joins sluggish USD to underpin bullish bias.Fears of recession, headlines concerning China adds filter to the north.Steel Price extends the previous week’s recovery towards 4,300 Chinese yuan (CNH), around 4,280 CNH heading into Tuesday’s European session. The metal’s latest gains could be linked to the market’s cautious optimism, as well as the softer US dollar. However, receding fears of oversupply appear the top reason for the Steel Price to portray the quarter-end positioning. That said, the Scrap Monster quotes the World Steel Association (worldsteel) figures to mention the reduction in the global steel output during the January-May period. That said, the news states that the steel output by the 64 reporting countries dropped to 791.8 million tonnes during the initial five months of 2022. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to extend the previous two-day downtrend as it flirts with the 104.00 threshold. In doing so, the greenback seems to follow the US Treasury yields amid a risk-off mood. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.17% by the press time. Elsewhere, China’s rejection of the speculations suggesting a flood-like stimulus joins anti-dumping tariffs on the US, the UK and the European Union to weigh on the metal prices. “China's commerce ministry said on Tuesday it would extend anti-dumping tariffs on certain steel fasteners imported from the European Union and the United Kingdom for five years,” said Reuters. Moving on, US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, will precede Wednesday’s ECB Forum as an important catalyst to determine short-term market moves.

China extends anti-dumping tariffs on EU, UK steel fasteners imports more to come ...

China will extend anti-dumping tariffs on certain steel fasteners imported from the European Union (EU) and the UK for five years, Reuters reported, citing the country’s Commerce Ministry on Tuesday.   The anti-dumping tariffs will come into effect from June 29, the Ministry said. more to come ...

FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang noted EUR/USD still faces some consolidation but could break above the 1.0630 level in the

FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang noted EUR/USD still faces some consolidation but could break above the 1.0630 level in the next few weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘the bias for EUR is tilted to the upside but any advance is expected to encounter strong resistance at 1.0605’. As expected, EUR strengthened even though it cracked 1.0605 and rose to 1.0614 before pulling back quickly. Upward momentum has not improved by much and EUR is unlikely to advance further. For today, EUR is likely to trade between 1.0540 and 1.0615.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected EUR to consolidate for more than a week now. While shorter-term upward momentum is beginning to build, there is no change in our view for now. That said, the risk of EUR breaking above 1.0630 has increased. Meanwhile, EUR could consolidate within a range of 1.0460/1.0630 (narrowed from 1.0430/1.0630 previously).”

The EUR/USD pair is seeking some bids around 1.0580 and is expected to advance towards the round-level resistance of 1.0600. The asset is juggling in

EUR/USD is holding above 1.0570 ahead of ECB Lagarde’s speech.A significant rate hike by the ECB looks likely as the inflation rate has climbed above 8%.The speech from Fed Powell will fade some clouds of uncertainty over the extent of July’s rate hike.The EUR/USD pair is seeking some bids around 1.0580 and is expected to advance towards the round-level resistance of 1.0600. The asset is juggling in a narrow range of 1.0570-1.0586 from the early Tokyo session as investors are shifting their focus on speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB Lagarde is expected to provide insights on how aggressive the ECB can go to fix the eurozone inflation mess. It won’t be wrong to dictate that the ECB has taken the inflation monster lightly by not elevating its interest rates yet. This is the reason that the inflation rate in the eurozone has climbed above 8%. And, this Friday an escalation is expected from the prior release. Also, the market participants will focus on the roadmap to be dictated by ECB Lagarde for further monetary policy meetings. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has defined its range for auctioning till the availability of an effective trigger. The asset is oscillating in a range of 103.89-104.02 in the early European session. Going forward, the speech from Fed Powell will be of key importance as it will fade some clouds of uncertainty from the extent of the interest rate hike to be announced in July. It is worth noting that the upbeat US Durable Goods Orders will strengthen the Fed to feature policy tightening decisions fearlessly.  

USD/CAD prints a three-day downtrend as sellers flirt with the lowest levels in two weeks around 1.2860 during early Thursday morning in Europe. The L

USD/CAD drops for the third consecutive day, extends pullback from six-week-old horizontal resistance.Downbeat RSI favors bears targeting 200-SMA, double tops challenge the advances.USD/CAD prints a three-day downtrend as sellers flirt with the lowest levels in two weeks around 1.2860 during early Thursday morning in Europe. The Loonie pair’s latest losses could be linked to the early week failure to cross a six-week-old horizontal resistance, as well as downbeat RSI (14). With this, the USD/CAD sellers aim for the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.2840. However, the nearly oversold RSI conditions and the 200-SMA level, around 1.2805 by the press time, could restrict the quote’s further weakness. In a case where the pair drops below 1.2805, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April-June upside, respectively around 1.2770 and 1.2700, will be on the bear’s radar. Meanwhile, USD/CAD bulls need a clear upside break of the 1.2900 mark, comprising the aforementioned horizontal area, to retake control. Even so, the 1.3000 psychological magnet and the double tops marked around 1.3080 will be tough nuts to crack for the pair buyers. Should the quote remains firmer past 1.3080, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the late 2020 peaks above 1.3400 can’t be ruled out. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

USD/INR stays on the front foot while refreshing an all-time high of around 78.56 during the initial Indian trading session on Tuesday. The Indian rup

USD/INR prints three-day uptrend to refresh all-time high.USD/INR NDFs hint at further upside momentum towards 79.00.Oil prices renew one-week top above $110.00, up for the third consecutive day.RBI intervention, US data should be watched carefully for clear directions.USD/INR stays on the front foot while refreshing an all-time high of around 78.56 during the initial Indian trading session on Tuesday. The Indian rupee (INR) pair’s latest run-up could be linked to the strong oil prices, as well as bullish bets on the Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDF). Recently downbeat sentiment has also propelled the USD/INR prices of late. WTI crude oil prices print a three-day uptrend near $109.50 by the press time. Growing fears of a supply crunch appear to underpin the black gold’s latest run-up. Comments suggesting no excess capacity to increase oil output from the United Arab Emirates Energy Minister join the G7 nations’ commitment to unveil new sanctions on Russian oil to favor the supply crunch fears. It’s worth noting that India imports around 85% of its oil consumption and hence is susceptible to oil price moves. On the other hand, Reuters conveys the latest USD/INR NDFs around 78.67-72, which in turn suggests the further advances of the Indian rupee pair. Elsewhere, the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events joins a light calendar in Asia to weigh on sentiment amid impending fears of recession. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from a two-week high flashed the previous day, down 0.15% intraday around 3,897 at the latest. In doing so, the key gauge of the US equity futures prints the first daily loss in four. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.17% by the press time. The benchmark US bond coupons rose during the last two consecutive days. Moving on, USD/INR bulls should wait for the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, for clear directions. Following that, Wednesday’s ECB Forum will be crucial as the central bank leaders from the US, the UK and Europe will debate monetary policies then. Technical analysis USD/INR approaches an upward sloping resistance line from March, around 78.60 by the press time. However, overbought RSI conditions seem to challenge the bulls of late. It’s worth noting that a three-week-old rising support line, near 78.15 at the latest, restricts the short-term downside moves of the pair.  

AUD/USD remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day, down 0.25% around 0.6920 during the mid-Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the Au

AUD/USD extends the previous day’s pullback from weekly top, stays pressured around intraday low.Market sentiment dwindles amid fears of recession, lack of major catalysts challenge momentum traders.Australia’s business sentiment gauge dropped for the second month, China rejects expectations of heavy stimulus.RBA rate hike expectations ease ahead of Wednesday’s Aussie Retail Sales, US CB Consumer Confidence could direct intraday moves.AUD/USD remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day, down 0.25% around 0.6920 during the mid-Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies downbeat data at home, disappointment from China and receding hopes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) aggression ahead of the key US and Australia statistics. Australia’s Roy Morgan Business Confidence index fell to 97.3 for June. In doing so, the sentiment gauge drops to the lowest levels since September 2020 while also posting the second monthly fall. Moving on, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Vice Head mentioned that China will not resort to flood-like stimulus. The policymaker also said, “China faces new challenges in stabilizing jobs, prices due to covid, Ukraine crisis.” Elsewhere, global rating agency S&P cuts Australia’s 2022 GDP forecast to to 3.6% (from 4% previously), 2023 projection is 2.8% (2.7% prior forecast). The rating giant also expects further interest rate hikes to 1.75% this year, 2.5% in 2023, 2.75% in 2024 while a cut to 2.5% in 2025. On a different page, the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events joins a light calendar in Asia to weigh on sentiment amid impending fears of recession. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from a two-week high flashed the previous day, down 0.15% intraday around 3,897 at the latest. In doing so, the key gauge of the US equity futures prints the first daily loss in four. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.9 basis points (bps) to 3.17% by the press time. The benchmark US bond coupons rose during the last two consecutive days. Looking forward, US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, will precede Wednesday’s ECB Forum as an important catalyst to determine short-term market moves. At home, Australia’s Retail Sales for May, up for publishing on Wednesday, is expected to ease to 0.4% versus 0.9% previous growth. It’s worth noting that the futures market hints at the slower pace of the RBA’s rate hike of late. That said, the benchmark rates are seen at 3.25% by the end of the year, compared with almost 4.0% a couple of weeks ago. Technical analysis Unless successfully crossing the weekly resistance line near 0.6945, AUD/USD remains vulnerable to challenge the six-week-old support line near 0.6885.  

In an exclusive interview conducted by China Global Television Network on Monday, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang said that the central

In an exclusive interview conducted by China Global Television Network on Monday, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang said that the central bank’s monetary policy support prioritizes boosting credit over cutting interest rates lower, per Bloomberg. Key quotes “Will continue to be accommodative to support economic recovery in an aggregate sense.”  China’s “real interest rate is pretty low” after taking inflation into account, suggesting that there’s limited room for large-scale rate cuts.   more to come ...

Gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying back and forth moves in a narrow range of $1,821.76-1,825.55 in the Tokyo session. The precious metal is trading la

Gold price has turned sideways following the footprints of the DXY.The upbeat US Durable Goods Orders have bolstered the odds of one more 75 bps rate hike by the Fed.A symmetrical triangle formation by the gold prices is hinting for a continuation of a consolidation phase.Gold price (XAU/USD) is displaying back and forth moves in a narrow range of $1,821.76-1,825.55 in the Tokyo session. The precious metal is trading lackluster right from the first tick on Tuesday. Earlier, the gold prices witnessed a steep fall after failing to surpass the critical hurdle of $1,840.00. Considering the ongoing inventory distribution, a downside move below Monday’s low at $1,820.85 will drag the bright metal significantly. Also, the US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a lackluster performance in the Asian session. The DXY is struggling to contain the round-level resistance of 104.00 after a firmer rebound from Monday’s low at 103.69. The upbeat US Durable Goods Orders released on Monday have raised the odds of a consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors were worried over the fact that growth prospects might not remain supportive of more policy tightening. However, the release of the above-mentioned economic data at 0.7% vs. 0.1% forecasted has strengthened the Fed to elevate interest rates without much hesitation. Gold technical analysis On an hourly scale, the gold prices are auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle that signals a volatility contraction followed by a breakout in the same. The upward sloping trendline is placed from June 14 low at $1,805.11 while the downward sloping trendline is plotted from June 16 high at $1,857.88. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to find a cushion around 40.00. Gold hourly chart  

The USD/JPY pair has witnessed a regular fall after multiple failed attempts of overstepping the critical resistance of 135.60 for the past three trad

The H&S formation has strengthened the odds of a bearish reversal in the assetGreenback bulls are failing to defend the 50-EMA.The RSI (14) is attempting to violate 60.00 but is facing significant hurdles.The USD/JPY pair has witnessed a regular fall after multiple failed attempts of overstepping the critical resistance of 135.60 for the past three trading sessions. The asset is auctioning inside Thursday’s range since Friday, which is marked in the 134.27-136.22 area. The formation of a Head and Shoulder (H&S) chart pattern on an hourly scale has bolstered the odds of a bearish reversal in the counter after remaining bullish for a few months. The neckline of the aforementioned chart pattern is marked from June 17 low at 134.27. The greenback bulls seem unable to defend the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 135.24, which indicates a short-term downtrend. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has sensed barricades around 60.00, which signals that the yen bulls are barricading the asset to turn bullish. A firmer drop below the H&S neckline marked from June 17 low at 134.27 will drag the asset towards June 15 low at 135.50, followed by June 17 low at 132.36. Alternatively, the greenback bulls could regain their mojo back after violating Thursday’s high at 136.30. This will expose the asset to register fresh two-decade highs at 136.89, recorded in October 1998, followed by September 1998 highs at 139.91. USD/JPY hourly chart  

In its latest economic assessment for the Asia-Pacific region, S&P Global offers a dire growth outlook. The global rating agency has cut Australia’s 2

In its latest economic assessment for the Asia-Pacific region, S&P Global offers a dire growth outlook. The global rating agency has cut Australia’s 2022 GDP forecast while revising the RBA’s policy expectations. Key quotes “Growth is easing in the region as export demand softens in line with an expected slowdown among major global economies.” "However, the recovery in domestic demand from COVID is largely intact, so overall growth has softened only modestly." "This is especially so in Australia, India, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines where growth is more domestic demand-oriented." “Inflation has risen across the region, largely driven by higher energy and commodity prices but not by as much as in the US and Europe.” “S&P has cut its Australia 2022 growth forecast to 3.6% (from 4% previously), 2023 projection is 2.8% (2.7% prior forecast).” “Expect inflation to average 5% in Australia this year, back to 3% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.” Expect further OCR “hikes to 1.75% this year, 2.5% in 2023, 2.75% in 2024 while a cut to 2.5% in 2025.” Market reaction AUD/USD remains vulnerable near 0.6920 on the above headlines, modestly flat on the day.

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it was "a little difficult" at present to confirm the definite impact of Russia's debt d

Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it was "a little difficult" at present to confirm the definite impact of Russia's debt default on the economy. Key quotes "The ratio of investments in Russia as part of Japan's overall foreign bond investments is limited.” "Moves in Russian government bonds are likely to result in limited direct losses for Japanese investors, including financial institutions." Market reaction A renewed risk-aversion wave has hit markets, as they reassess the implications of tighter monetary policies and the new sanctions against Russia. USD/JPY is falling in sync with the Treasury yields, now trading at 135.19, down 0.16% so far.

“China faces new challenges in stabilizing jobs, prices due to covid and risks from Ukraine crisis,” the country’s National Development and Reform Com

“China faces new challenges in stabilizing jobs, prices due to covid and risks from Ukraine crisis,” the country’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Vice Head said on Tuesday. Additional takeaways China will safeguard food and energy security, and stabilize industrial supply chains. Will not resort to flood-like stimulus. Will roll out tools in its policy reserve in a timely way to cope with challenges. Market reaction AUD/USD remains weighed down by the cautious remarks from the Chinese official, now trading at 0.6918, down 0.07% on the day. Meanwhile, USD/CNY is up 0.09% on the day at 6.6965, at the time of writing.  

Global traders fade the week-start optimism while searching for fresh directions during Tuesday’s Asian session. The sluggish sentiment could also be

Market sentiment remains sluggish as traders await fresh clues for clear directions.Light calendar, mixed headlines add to the traders’ confusion.S&P500 Futures snap three-day uptrend, US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate two-day gains.US CB Consumer Confidence, central bankers’ speeches will be important for fresh impulse.Global traders fade the week-start optimism while searching for fresh directions during Tuesday’s Asian session. The sluggish sentiment could also be linked to the cautious mood ahead of the key data/events. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures retreat from a two-week high flashed the previous day, down 0.15% intraday around 3,897 at the latest. In doing so, the key gauge of the US equity futures prints the first daily loss in four. On the same line, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 1.1 basis points (bps) to 3.18% by the press time. The benchmark US bond coupons rose during the last two consecutive days. A light calendar in Asia joins traders’ indecision amid the inflation and recession chatters to challenge the market moves. That said, the anxiety ahead of the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, as well as the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum, also weighs on the risk appetite. It should be observed that the US dollar began the week on a softer footing before consolidating the losses amid a risk-off mood. That said, mixed US data, as well as the quarter-end positioning, could be linked to the latest performance of the greenback. On Monday, US Durable Goods Orders rose to 0.7% in May, versus 0.1% expected and 0.4% prior. That said, the widely tracked Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft also cross 0.3% market forecasts and previous readings to increase by 0.5% during the stated month. Further, the US Pending Home Sales also surprised the USD bulls with 0.7% MoM figures for May versus -3.7% expected and -4.0% prior. The YoY figures, however, came in negative to -13.6% versus -9.8% prior. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, to -17.7 versus -3.1 forecasts and -7.3 prior. Elsewhere, headlines surrounding Russia and China appear as the major challenge to the market sentiment. On the same line are updates concerning the major central banks’ next moves, as well as fears of recession. Moving on, the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, will precede Wednesday’s ECB Forum as an important catalyst to determine short-term market moves. Also read: Forex Today: Uncertainty keeps majors ranging ahead of central bankers’ words

The price of copper has been attempting to correct as the US dollar is faded on rallies above 104 the figure as measured by the DXY index. The bulls

Copper is bid and eyes a break of the 38.2% Fibonacci level near $3.8070.Bears are moving in on the US dollar as DXY edges below 104 the figure.  The price of copper has been attempting to correct as the US dollar is faded on rallies above 104 the figure as measured by the DXY index. The bulls are accumulating copper following a drop from the $4.50s earlier in June and have their eyes set on a move back to test higher. The following illustrates a bearish bias on the US chart and a bullish bias for copper: DXY H1 chart Copper daily chart According to early indicator data from Bloomberg, economic activity picked up in June after financial hub Shanghai lifted its lockdown and this too is supporting the bullish outlook for the metals sector. A break of the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 3.8070 opens the risk to a deeper correction in order to mitigate the price imbalances as illustrated in the chart above. This will reveal the pathway towards the 78.6% Fibo. 

USD/CHF remains depressed around the intraday low, taking rounds to 0.9555 during the three-day downtrend to Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the

USD/CHF remains depressed around the intraday low, taking rounds to 0.9555 during the three-day downtrend to Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair traces options market signals while favoring bears. That said, the one-month risk reversal (RR) of the USD/CHF, a spread between the calls and the puts, fails to extend the previously weekly rebound with the latest RR being -0.030. In addition to the RR, the softer US dollar and the CHF’s safe-haven status also appear to weigh on the USD/CHF prices. It’s worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) stays pressured at around 103.95 after declining for the last two consecutive days. The risk appetite, however, remains cautiously optimistic as the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields probe a two-day rebound around 3.19% by the press time. Looking forward, the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior 106.4, will be important for immediate direction. Also read: USD/CHF Price Analysis: Falling Channel advocates bears, 0.9550 a critical support

GBP/USD grinds higher around the intraday top near 1.2285, following a sluggish start to the week, as buyers cheer the US dollar weakness during Tuesd

GBP/USD regains upside momentum after Monday’s lackluster performance.UK lawmakers back Northern Ireland Protocol Bill in first of many parliamentary tests.US dollar struggles to regain market confidence amid lack of major data/events.BOE’s Cunliffe, US CB Consumer Confidence to direct intraday moves, Wednesday’s ECB Forum is the key.GBP/USD grinds higher around the intraday top near 1.2285, following a sluggish start to the week, as buyers cheer the US dollar weakness during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Cable pair ignores recent negative news surrounding Brexit, as well as the UK’s political jitters. That said, the UK policymakers in the House of Commons voted in favor of the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill late Monday. Even if the NIP has multiple hurdles to cross before becoming legislation, the European Union’s (EU) trade warnings make the latest passage a grim event for the GBP/USD traders. “Despite some fierce criticism, lawmakers voted 295 to 221 in favor of the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would unilaterally overturn part of Britain's divorce deal from the EU agreed in 2020. The bill now proceeds to line-by-line scrutiny,” said Reuters. The Brexit move appears a political play to defend UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson’s position after criticism of the patygate scandal, as well as the Conservatives’ defeat in the recently held two parliamentary by-elections. Alternatively, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stays pressured at around 103.95 after declining for the last two consecutive days. It’s worth noting that mixed US data, as well as the quarter-end positioning, could be linked to the latest weakness of the greenback. On Monday, US Durable Goods Orders rose to 0.7% in May, versus 0.1% expected and 0.4% prior. That said, the widely tracked Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft also cross 0.3% market forecasts and previous readings to increase by 0.5% during the stated month. Further, the US Pending Home Sales also surprised the USD bulls with 0.7% MoM figures for May versus -3.7% expected and -4.0% prior. The YoY figures, however, came in negative to -13.6% versus -9.8% prior. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, to -17.7 versus -3.1 forecasts and -7.3 prior. Meanwhile, risks emanating from Russia and China appear to weigh on the market’s mood and test the GBP/USD buyers of late. Among them, the chatters surrounding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations to take a tough stand on China and Russia are the major challenges. On the same line is Moscow’s first default since 1918. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields probe a two-day rebound around 3.19% by the press time. Looking forward, more updates on Brexit and global recession fears are likely to direct GBP/USD moves ahead of a speech from the Bank of England’s (BOE) Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sir Jon Cunliffe. Also important to watch is the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior to 106.4. Above all, Wednesday’s ECB Forum is the key as major central bankers from the BOE and the Fed are scheduled to debate the monetary policies. Technical analysis GBP/USD remains firmer beyond convergence of the 50-SMA and a fortnight-long support line, near 1.2255 by the press time. However, the 100-SMA hurdle on the four-hour chart, near 1.2310 by the press time, limits the short-term advances of the pair buyers.  

Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe that the single currency could likely remain supported over the coming weeks amid hawkish ECB expectations. Key q

Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe that the single currency could likely remain supported over the coming weeks amid hawkish ECB expectations. Key quotes "Our economists have a below-consensus growth outlook for the second half of the year and we think there are still significant downside risks from further gas disruptions, helping push near-term recession odds to around 40%.” "But, at the same time we find it hard to be outright bearish on the Euro when the ECB is on the brink of such a momentous policy change: exiting negative rates after eight years. This week's Sintra meeting will likely help firm expectations for an imminent exit of negative rates and a broad anti-fragmentation "backstop."

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.6930 vs. the last close of 6.6940. About the fix China maintains stri

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.6930 vs. the last close of 6.6940. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

EUR/USD picks up bids to rebound from the intraday lows surrounding 1.0570 to pare daily losses, the first in three days, during Tuesday’s Asian sessi

EUR/USD keeps late Monday’s pullback from a 12-day top despite recent recovery.Firmer RSI, three-day-old support defend buyers inside a bearish chart formation.50-SMA adds to the downside filters before directing bears to the monthly low, 200-SMA guards short-term rebound.EUR/USD picks up bids to rebound from the intraday lows surrounding 1.0570 to pare daily losses, the first in three days, during Tuesday’s Asian session. That said, the quote rises to 1.585 by the press time. Although a three-day-old support line triggered the EUR/USD pair’s rebound, it stays inside a two-week-long ascending triangle bearish chart pattern. It’s worth noting that the recently firmer RSI line and the rebound from a short-term support line direct EUR/USD towards battling with the 200-SMA resistance of 1.0590. However, the aforementioned triangle’s resistance line, neat 1.0610, could challenge the EUR/USD pair’s further upside. In a case where the quote rises past 1.0610, it becomes capable of challenging the monthly high near 1.0775. On the flip side, a break of the immediate support line, near 1.0570 at the latest, won’t convince the EUR/USD bears as the triangle’s lower line and the 50-SMA act as additional downside filters to challenge the downside momentum around 1.0540 and 1.0530 respectively. Should the quote drop below 1.530, the monthly low of near 1.0360 will gain the seller’s attention. EUR/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

In a variation of a Wyckoff style schematic, AUD/USD, as per the prior analysis, AUD/USD bulls seek a break of 0.6925 for 0.6950 target area, the bull

The bulls are moving in and eye the 0.6950s and prior highs. 0.69536 is a mid point from where the downside commenced in Monday's Tokyo open.In a variation of a Wyckoff style schematic, AUD/USD, as per the prior analysis, AUD/USD bulls seek a break of 0.6925 for 0.6950 target area, the bulls have accumulated the Aussie at a discount. The price has broken out from within the 'consolidation' following the break of 0.6925 resistance, in a ''sign of strength'' which has encouraged the bulls. The market is making fresh highs above the resistance and the following illustrates this from prior analysis down to the recent price action on a 5-min time frame. AUD/USD prior analysis AUD/USD live 5-min charts In the above schematic, the W-formation was identified and the last point of support, LPS, gave a perfect entry for the bulls seeking a discount. Below, a secondary W-formation was formed from which the price has rallied from a test of the first leg of the pattern and its resistance:  The price is taking off but there are risks of further mitigation of price imbalances until 0.6924. Should the bulls manage to stay in control from between here and there, then the upside is compelling for a test of the 0.6950s and prior highs. 0.69536 is a mid point of a prior order block from where the downside commenced in Monday's Tokyo open.

The USD/CAD pair has witnessed a marginal fall to near 1.2860 after slipping below the critical support of 1.2870. The asset is expected to extend its

USD/CAD has slipped below 1.2870 as oil prices have rebounded firmly.The DXY is struggling to surpass 104.00 on advancing recession fears.Fed’s quick rate hike announcements are raising hopes of a tight liquidity environment.The USD/CAD pair has witnessed a marginal fall to near 1.2860 after slipping below the critical support of 1.2870. The asset is expected to extend its losses establishing below 1.2860 as the oil prices have extended their recovery and are auctioning above the psychological resistance of $110.00. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US. Therefore, higher oil prices result in higher fund inflows for Canada.  The oil prices have rebounded strongly as investors have started underpinning the current supply constraints rather than focusing on forwarding recession fears. After the prohibition of oil imports from Russia by the Western leaders, the OPEC cartel is working on fixing the supply issues. Majorly, only two OPEC countries: Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) carry the ability to add significant oil to the global supply. Both nations are enjoying high prices and high supplied quantity levels. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is struggling to violate the round-level resistance of 104.00 decisively. As quick as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is stepping up interest rates, the expectations of recession fears are scaling higher. No doubt, that the Fed will elevate its borrowing rates to at least 2% in its July monetary policy.  An interest rate of 2% in the US economy is sufficient to squeeze liquidity from the market. This will force the corporate sector to stick to some ultra-filtered investment projects and eventually less demand for labor in the economy for some time.  

Contrary to the popular perception, JP Morgan rejects recession fears while expecting an economic rebound in the second half of the year (H2 2022). “I

Contrary to the popular perception, JP Morgan rejects recession fears while expecting an economic rebound in the second half of the year (H2 2022). “It is not that we think that the world and economies are in great shape,” mentioned JP Morgan. The US bank not only expects a 3.1% growth rate during the H2 2022 but also expects the inflation to ease to 4.2%. The same, “Would allow central banks to pivot and avoid producing an economic downturn,” said JP Morgan in its latest report. The note also mentioned that but just that an average investor expects an economic disaster, and if that does not materialize risky asset classes could recover most of their losses from the first half. Also read: How on earth the stock market can have sentiment so far divorced from reality?

GBP/JPY refreshes intraday high near 166.40 during the third positive daily performance amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency

GBP/JPY picks up bids to portray three-day uptrend.Sustained break of weekly resistance line directs buyers towards a fortnight-old hurdle.Convergence of the key SMAs, resistance-turned-support and an immediate upward sloping trend line highlight 165.40 as the key support.GBP/JPY refreshes intraday high near 166.40 during the third positive daily performance amid Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair justifies the previous day’s upside break of a one-week-old resistance line amid sluggish MACD signals. With this, the quote aims for a downward sloping trend line resistance from June 09, around 167.50. However, the GBP/JPY pair’s upside past 167.50 will be challenged by the previous weekly top and the monthly high, respectively surrounding 167.90 and 168.75, before directing the advances toward the 170.00 psychological magnet. Alternatively, pullback moves remain elusive until stay beyond the 165.40 support confluence, including the 50-SMA, 100-SMA and an ascending support line from June 23, not to forget the one-week-old previous resistance line. In a case where the GBP/JPY prices decline below 165.40, the odds of witnessing a slump towards the 200-SMA level near 162.90 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBP/JPY has limited upside room but the bears will have a tough time until breaking 165.40. GBP/JPY: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The NZD/USD pair has witnessed some bids around 0.6292 and has moved above the round-level resistance of 0.6300 in the Asian session. On a broader not

NZD/USD is attempting to sustain above 0.6300 after performing lackluster in the past few trading sessions.Fed Powell’s speech may bring a decisive move in the asset.The RBNZ is expected to elevate its interest rates further and achieve a neutral rate sooner.The NZD/USD pair has witnessed some bids around 0.6292 and has moved above the round-level resistance of 0.6300 in the Asian session. On a broader note, the asset is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a range of 0.6285-0.6327 since Friday. Investors have shifted their focus on the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, which is due on Wednesday. The speech will provide some insights into the likely monetary policy action by the Fed in July. Taking into account the soaring price pressures and the upbeat growth prospects, the Fed is expected to dictate one more 75 basis points (bps) interest rate hike. Effective employment generation capacity, strong growth outlook, and of course the inflationary pressures are sufficient to support the verdict. The households in the US economy are the real victim of the higher inflation rate as the roaring price rise is reducing their real income, eventually leaving less money to them for disposal. The release of the upbeat US Durable Goods Orders on Monday indicated that the aggregate demand is resilient in the US economy but recession fears still loom if inflation doesn’t get under control. On the kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be the first Western central bank, which will shift its interest rates to a neutral state. Officially, the Official Cash Rate (OCR) stands at 2% after a 50 bps rate hike announcement by RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr on May 25. No doubt, the RBNZ will face the consequences of elevating its interest rates vigorously as a quick enrolment of policy tightening measures will reduce the overall demand.  

Gold Price (XAU/USD) consolidates recent losses at around $1,825.00 during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the yellow metal takes clues from the

Gold picks up bids to refresh intraday high, pares week-start losses.Cautious optimism, US dollar’s failures to extend the bounce off two-week low favor gold buyers.US CB Consumer Confidence, Fedspeak can entertain traders ahead of Wednesday’s ECB Forum.Gold Price (XAU/USD) consolidates recent losses at around $1,825.00 during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the yellow metal takes clues from the market’s cautious optimism ahead of the key US consumer sentiment numbers and the much-awaited central bankers’ debate at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum. That said, an absence of major data/events allowed the US dollar bears to keep reins despite late Monday’s rebound from an eight-day low. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stays pressured around 103.93 after declining for the last two consecutive days. It’s worth noting that mixed US data, as well as the quarter-end positioning, could be linked to the latest performance of the greenback and gold. On Monday, US Durable Goods Orders rose to 0.7% in May, versus 0.1% expected and 0.4% prior. That said, the widely tracked Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft also cross 0.3% market forecasts and previous readings to increase by 0.5% during the stated month. Further, the US Pending Home Sales also surprised the USD bulls with 0.7% MoM figures for May versus -3.7% expected and -4.0% prior. The YoY figures, however, came in negative to -13.6% versus -9.8% prior. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, to -17.7 versus -3.1 forecasts and -7.3 prior. However, challenges to risk appetite, mainly emanating from Russia and China, appear to weigh on the market’s mood and test the XAU/USD buyers of late. While chatters surrounding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations to take a tough stand on China and Russia are major challenges for the gold buyers, Moscow’s first default since 1918 should exert additional downside pressure on the bullion prices. Though, the metal’s traditional risk-safety status seems to have been defending bulls of late. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed in the red, after an upbeat start, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields gained nearly seven basis points (bps) to end Monday at around 3.20%. That said, the S&P 500 Futures rise 0.16% intraday gains by the press time. US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior to 106.4, will be crucial for the intraday gold traders. Also important will be multiple Fed speakers who are up for public appearances. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s ECB Forum as the key central bankers are scheduled to debate the monetary policies. Technical analysis A two-week-old symmetrical triangle restricts short-term XAU/USD moves between $1,819 and $1,840. Adding strength to the upside filter is the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,840. It’s worth noting that the bearish RSI divergence, a condition when prices make lower-high but RSI marks higher-high, keeps gold sellers hopeful. That said, a downside break of the $1,819 appears necessary for the gold bears to retake control. Following that, the monthly low of $1,805 and the $1,800 threshold will be on the bear’s radar. Meanwhile, the metal’s recovery beyond $1,840 will have multiple hurdles around $1,858 and $1,870 before the gold buyers can aim for the monthly peak surrounding $1,880. Gold: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The EUR/JPY pair is oscillating in a minor range of 143.17-143.36 in early Tokyo. Broadly, the asset is modestly advancing after sensing a rebound nea

EUR/JPY is inching towards its seven-year high at 144.25 as investors await ECB Lagarde.The speech from ECB Lagarde is expected to remain hawkish on interest rates amid soaring inflation.The continuation of an ultra-loose monetary policy will keep the yen bulls on the tenterhooks.The EUR/JPY pair is oscillating in a minor range of 143.17-143.36 in early Tokyo. Broadly, the asset is modestly advancing after sensing a rebound near Thursday’s low at 141.58. The cross is aiming to recapture its seven-year high at 144.25 as investors are awaiting the speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, which is due on Tuesday. ECB Lagarde is expected to dictate the roadmap of elevating the interest rates to combat the inflation monster. It is worth noting that the ECB has not followed the footprints of its Western mates and has not elevated its policy rates yet. The inflation rate has climbed above 8% in the eurozone and the only measure that has been taken by the ECB to contain inflation is the ending of the Asset Purchase Program (APP). This time a rate hike announcement by the ECB looks likely as the inflation situation has turned into a mess and the households are facing the headwinds of the same.   On the Tokyo front, a continuation of an ultra-loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep the Japanese yen on the tenterhooks. Despite the achievement of the desired inflation rate, the BOJ is unable to elevate its interest rates as the price pressures are majorly contributed by costly fossil fuels and food prices. For further guidance, investors will keep an eye on the Retail Trade data, which is due on Wednesday.  As per the market estimates, Japan’s Retail Trade is seen at 3.3%, higher than the former print of 2.9% on an annual basis. While the monthly Retail Trade may drop to -0.1% vs. 0.8% recorded earlier.   

US Dollar Index (DXY) pokes the 104.00 hurdle as buyers struggle to extend the previous day’s rebound from over a week’s low during a sluggish Asian s

US Dollar Index fades bounce off eight-day low amid market’s indecision.Lack of catalysts challenge the previous rebound backed by firmer US statistics, risk-off mood.US CB Consumer Confidence for June, qualitative factors to determine moves ahead of Wednesday’s ECB Forum.US Dollar Index (DXY) pokes the 104.00 hurdle as buyers struggle to extend the previous day’s rebound from over a week’s low during a sluggish Asian session on Tuesday. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies remains indecisive after a two-day downtrend, keeping the fortnight-old downward trajectory after refreshing the yearly top. The DXY began the week on a back foot as market sentiment improved after Friday’s downbeat US data joined economic fears and softer inflation expectations to favor hopes of no major hawkish surprise from the Fed. However, mixed US data and risk-aversion recalled the greenback buyers during the late North American session on Monday. US Durable Goods Orders rose to 0.7% in May, versus 0.1% expected and 0.4% prior. That said, the widely tracked Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft also cross 0.3% market forecasts and previous readings to increase by 0.5% during the stated month. Further, the US Pending Home Sales also surprised the USD bulls with 0.7% MoM figures for May versus -3.7% expected and -4.0% prior. The YoY figures, however, came in negative to -13.6% versus -9.8% prior. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, to -17.7 versus -3.1 forecasts and -7.3 prior. On a different page, Russia rejects default on paying external debt by saying Euroclear not accepting Russia’s euro bond transaction 'is not our problem'. “Russian gold and forex reserves are blocked unlawfully. Russia made a payment on euro bond coupons in May,” adds Kremlin in a statement. Recently, global rating agency Moody’s mentioned that Russia's failure to make its coupon payment resulted in a default. Additionally, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also crossed wires, via Reuters, while saying, “Any attempt by a NATO nation to encroach upon Crimea constitutes a declaration of war against Russia and may trigger the outbreak of world war III.” Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed in the red, after an upbeat start, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields gained nearly seven basis points (bps) to end Monday at around 3.20%. That said, the S&P 500 Futures rise 0.16% intraday gains by the press time. Looking forward, risk catalysts are likely to direct the immediate DXY moves ahead of the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior to 106.4. Also important will be multiple Fed speakers who are up for public appearances. However, major attention will be given to Wednesday’s ECB Forum as the key central bankers are scheduled to debate the monetary policies. Read: Conference Board Consumer Confidence June Preview: Watch what we do, not what we say Technical Analysis Unless crossing a fortnight-old resistance line, around 104.30 by the press time, DXY remains pressured towards the 50-DMA level surrounding 103.15  

Silver (XAG/USD) prices remain pressured around $21.15, after reversing from $21.53 the previous day, as bears keep reins during Tuesday’s quiet Asian

Silver holds lower ground as it fades Friday’s rebound from six-week low.Sluggish MACD, downbeat RSI favor sellers targeting fresh yearly lows.Two-month-old resistance line, monthly high and 200-DMA challenge buyers.Silver (XAG/USD) prices remain pressured around $21.15, after reversing from $21.53 the previous day, as bears keep reins during Tuesday’s quiet Asian session. In doing so, the bright metal remains below the downward sloping resistance line from late April amid sluggish MACD and RSI conditions, which in turn suggest the metal’s further downside. That said, a mid-June swing low near $20.90 can offer immediate support to the XAG/USD before directing it to the $20.60-45 horizontal support area including the yearly low. Although the RSI (14) may challenge the silver bears around the $20.60-45 zone, a clear break of the same support region won’t hesitate to direct the quote towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April 20 to June 06 moves, near $19.45. Meanwhile, recovery remains elusive below the aforementioned two-month-old resistance line, at $21.85 by the press time. Following that, the monthly high and the 200-DMA, respectively near $22.51 and $23.30, will be important to watch. In a case where the silver buyers keep reins past $23.30, the odds of witnessing a rally towards April’s peak of $26.22 can’t be ruled out. Silver: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The USD/JPY pair has slipped below 135.40 after struggling to overstep the critical hurdle of 135.50 multiple times on Monday. On a broader note, the

USD/JPY is failing to surpass 135.50 as the DXY is trading lackluster.The US Consumer Confidence will bring a significant action in the asset. A mixed performance is expected from Japan's Retail Trade.The USD/JPY pair has slipped below 135.40 after struggling to overstep the critical hurdle of 135.50 multiple times on Monday. On a broader note, the asset is oscillating in a range of 134.27-135.55 for the past week amid the unavailability of any potential trigger that could fetch significant bids/offers on the counter. The US dollar index (DXY) is struggling to contain the round-level resistance of 104.00 despite the upbeat US Durable Goods Orders. The US Census Bureau reported the economic data at 0.5%, significantly higher than the forecasts of 0.1% and the former release of 0.5%. Investors were worried over the aggregate demand structure as lower estimates for the Durable Goods Orders were intensifying the recession fears. Now, the upbeat figures may provide more freedom to the Federal Reserve (Fed) to announce more policy tightening measures without much hesitation. Going forward, investors will keep an eye over the release of the US Consumer Confidence data, which will dictate the confidence of the consumers in the economic activities. A higher print determines strong demand from the households, which will further support the greenback. On the Tokyo front, Wednesday’s Retail Trade data will keep investors busy. A preliminary estimate for the yearly Retail Trade is 3.3%, higher than the former print of 2.9%. While the monthly Retail Trade may drop to -0.1% vs. 0.8% recorded earlier. 

WTI bulls attack $109.00 during a three-day uptrend to the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The black gold’s latest advances could be linked to the h

WTI picks up bids to refresh intraday high, pokes one-week high during three-day uptrend.OPEC+ forecasts, US emergency oil reserve updates join fears of ban on Russian oil imports to favor bulls.Risk-off sentiment, US dollar rebound challenge upside momentum.Weekly inventory numbers, US CB Consumer Confidence to direct intraday moves, risk catalysts are the key.WTI bulls attack $109.00 during a three-day uptrend to the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The black gold’s latest advances could be linked to the headlines concerning fears of a supply crunch, mainly emanating from the US and due to the sanctions on Russia. Adding to the energy benchmark’s strength could be the chatters surrounding OPEC+ forecasts for 2022 market surplus. As per the latest updates from Reuters, “US crude inventory in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 6.9 million barrels in the week to June 24, according to data from the Department of Energy.” The news also mentioned that stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 497.9 million barrels, the lowest since April 1986, according to the data. Elsewhere, Reuters came out with the news citing an internal report prepared for the upcoming Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting, scheduled for Thursday, to report a revised down forecast of the oil market surplus for 2022. “OPEC+ trimmed its oil market surplus forecast for 2022 to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd previously,” said the news. Furthermore, the Group of Seven (G7) leaders showed readiness to increase hardships for Russian oil and gold while political turmoil in Libya also contributed to the black gold’s upside momentum. On the contrary, recession fears join the likely US-Iran talks to challenge the WTI crude oil buyers. On the same line are concerns surrounding central bank aggression. Moving on, weekly prints of the oil inventories by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as well as the US CB Consumer Confidence for June, could entertain oil traders. However, major attention will be given to risk catalyst and OPEC meeting for clear directions. Technical analysis A clear upside break of the previous support line from early April, around $107.50 by the press time, keeps WTI bulls hopeful. However, the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $109.30 guards the recovery moves.  

GBP/USD remains pressured around 1.2260 as bears jostle with the short-term key supports following the fresh Brexit news during late Monday, early Tue

GBP/USD extends pullback from one-week high as NIP Bill passes the UK’s House of Commons vote.Convergence of 50-SMA, two-week-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside.RSI retreat, pullback from 100-SMA adds strength to the bearish bias.200-SMA adds to the upside filters, sellers can aim for fresh monthly low.GBP/USD remains pressured around 1.2260 as bears jostle with the short-term key supports following the fresh Brexit news during late Monday, early Tuesday for Asia. That said, the UK’s House of Commons had enough votes to pass the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) even as the European Union (EU) warned of trade wars if the British policymakers progress with the actions. Read: Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP) Bill passes UK House of Commons vote Technically, the cable pair keeps the previous day’s pullback from the 100-SMA towards challenging a convergence of the 50-SMA and a fortnight-long support line, near 1.2255 by the press time. Given the RSI (14) retreats and the failure to cross key SMA, not to forget Brexit news, the GBP/USD prices are likely to break the immediate support. Following that, the 1.2200 round figure and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May 27 to June 14 downside, near 1.2108, could probe the bears on their way to refresh the monthly low, currently around 1.1935. Meanwhile, the 100-SMA level near 1.2310 guards the immediate recovery of the GBP/USD pair ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2390. In a case where the Cable pair rises past 1.2390, the 200-SMA level of 1.2400 could act as the last defense of the bears. GBP/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The USD/CHF pair is displaying back and forth moves in a narrow range of 0.9552-0.9556 in the early Tokyo session. The major has turned sideways after

A slippage below 0.9545 will trigger the M-formation and eventually strengthen the Swiss franc bulls.The Falling Channel formation indicates that the asset is biased towards the south-side move.Declining 50-EMA at 0.9652 adds to the downside filters.The USD/CHF pair is displaying back and forth moves in a narrow range of 0.9552-0.9556 in the early Tokyo session. The major has turned sideways after a perpendicular downside move, which signals a phase of inventory distribution. The formation of a Falling Channel on a four-hour scale is advocating the Swiss franc bulls. The upper portion and lower portion of the chart pattern are plotted from June 17 high and & low at 0.9733 and 0.9628 respectively. Investors should keep May 27 low at 0.9545 on their radar as a violation of the same may trigger the formation of the M-pattern. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.9652 is declining strongly, which adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into a bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more downside ahead. Should the asset drop below Friday’s low at 0.9522, the M-formation will get activated, which will strengthen the Swiss franc bulls for a downside move towards April 21 low at 0.9458, followed by April 14 low at 0.9413. On the flip side, the Swiss franc bulls could lose their grip if the asset oversteps Wednesday’s high at 0.9690. This will drive the asset towards June 17 high at 0.9733. A breach of the June 17 high will expose the asset to more upside towards June 9 high at 0.9817. USD/CHF four-hour chart  

The USD/CAD extends its losses to two consecutive days, bolstered by rising US crude oil prices, which benefits the Canadian dollar, a headwind for th

The Loonie extended its gains on Monday, as shown by the USD/CAD falling 0.16%.The USD/CAD fell courtesy of a dismal sentiment and higher crude oil prices.USD/CAD Price Forecast: Might further extend its losses once it breaks below 1.2860.The USD/CAD extends its losses to two consecutive days, bolstered by rising US crude oil prices, which benefits the Canadian dollar, a headwind for the USD/CAD. At around 1.2875, the USD/CAD reached a fresh two-week low on Monday. Sentiment remains negative after Wall Street’s finished with minimal losses. Portfolio rebalancing, amongst news of Russia’s default, dragged equities lower. In the meantime, the Loonie benefitted from WTIs extended recovery, with the US crude oil benchmark clinging to the $109.90s area after reaching a weekly high of around $110.22 per barrel. In the meantime, the US Dollar Index is heavy, losing 0.17%, at around 103.944, as it tries to stage a recovery above the 104.000. Over the weekend, the Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said the economy still has a path to a “soft landing,” where it could stabilize economically after the blow of the COVID-19 pandemic without facing a severe recession that many fear. In the meantime, US economic data, which market participants mainly ignored, US Durable Good Orders surprised to the upside, rising 0.7% MoM, higher than the 0.1% estimations. Additionally, US Pending Home Sales rose in May by 0.7% MoM, smashing the expectations of a -3.9% contraction, as mortgage applications remain down weighed by higher mortgage rates, spurred by the US Federal Reserve tightening cycle. In the week ahead, the Canadian docket will feature the GDP on Thursday. Markets anticipate further monetary policy tightening at the Bank of Canada’s July 13 meeting after June’s 50 basis point increase. On the US front, the docket will feature CB Consumer Confidence for June, estimated at 100.4, less than May’s 106.4. that alongside Wholesale inventories, Trade Balance, Regional Fed Indices reports, and Fed speakers.USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlookDaily chartAt the time of writing, the USD/CAD is pressing towards the June 16 daily low at 1.2860, a level that, once broken, would pave the way for further losses, exposing the confluence of the 20 and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) around 1.2807-09. A decisive break would send the pair tumbling to the May 24 swing low at 1.2765, followed by a test of the 100-EMA at 1.2730.  

“Proposed legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally rip up Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland at the risk of a trade war with the EU passed th

“Proposed legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally rip up Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland at the risk of a trade war with the EU passed the second reading stage in the House of Commons on Monday night,” said The Guardian (TG). More to come

EUR/USD holds onto the pullback from a two-week high as bulls get rejections from short-term key resistances, as well as risk-off mood, during Tuesday

EUR/USD bulls take a breather around two-week high, pauses two-day uptrend.US dollar recovers on fresh fears of inflation/recession emanating from the US data.Headlines surrounding Russia, anxiety ahead of ECB Forum adds strength to the risk-off mood.US CB Consumer Confidence, comments from ECB policymakers eyed for intraday directions.EUR/USD holds onto the pullback from a two-week high as bulls get rejections from short-term key resistances, as well as risk-off mood, during Tuesday’s Asian session. That said, the major currency pair remains pressured around 1.0585 by the press time, after reversing from a fortnight top before a few hours. The quote managed to extend Friday’s recovery moves amid cautious optimism in the markets, considering mixed US data and optimism ahead of this week’s key European Central Bank (ECB) Forum. However, challenges to risk appetite emanated from the headlines surrounding Russia and China, which later on joined upbeat US economics to weigh on the sentiment and exerted fresh downside pressure on the EUR/USD. Russia rejects default on paying external debt by saying Euroclear not accepting Russia’s euro bond transaction 'is not our problem'. “Russian gold and forex reserves are blocked unlawfully. Russia made payment on euro bond coupons in May,” adds Kremlin in a statement. Recently, global rating agency Moody’s mentioned that Russia's failure to make its coupon payment results in a default. Additionally, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also crossed wires, via Reuters, while saying, “Any attempt by a NATO nation to encroach upon Crimea constitutes a declaration of war against Russia and may trigger the outbreak of world war III.” Elsewhere, US Durable Goods Orders rose to 0.7% in May, versus 0.1% expected and 0.4% prior. That said, the widely tracked Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft also cross 0.3% market forecasts and previous readings to increase by 0.5% during the stated month. Further, the US Pending Home Sales also surprised the USD bulls with 0.7% MoM figures for May versus -3.7% expected and -4.0% prior. The YoY figures, however, came in negative to -13.6% versus -9.8% prior. Further, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for June dropped to the lowest level since May 2020, to -17.7 versus -3.1 forecasts and -7.3 prior. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed in the red, after an upbeat start, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields gained nearly seven basis points (bps) to end Monday at around 3.20%. Moving on, US CB Consumer Confidence for June, prior to 106.4, will join the ECB policymakers’ comments, including President Christine Lagarde, to entertain EUR/USD traders.Technical analysis EUR/USD battles the 21-DMA hurdle around 1.0585 following a failure to cross a four-month-old descending resistance line, at 1.0161 by the press time. Also acting as an upside hurdle is the 1.0640-45 horizontal area comprising multiple level marked since early March. That said, the gradual recovery of the RSI (14) line hints at the EUR/USD pair’s further upside. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive until breaking a two-week-old support line near 1.0545.  

AUD/USD is consolidated at the start of the Asian day following some back and forth at the start of the week. The Aussie is trading at 0.6922 and will

AUD/USD is leaning bullish for the day ahead as the greenback toys with 104 DXY.A break of current highs 0.6925 will put the bias in the bull's hands. AUD/USD is consolidated at the start of the Asian day following some back and forth at the start of the week. The Aussie is trading at 0.6922 and will be dependent on the trajectory of the greenback in the absence of domestic data this week other than Retail Sales tomorrow.  ''While consumer sentiment has slumped given rising inflation and a lower confidence around the economic outlook, household balance sheets are in good shape,'' analysts at TD Securities said in respect of today's data. ''Further, a strong labour market should keep household spending elevated. A strong retail beat will boost the case for another aggressive move by the RBA in July after their outsized 50bps hike.'' Meanwhile, the greenback has been a head-turner. Speculators’ net long USD index positions ticked a little higher having surged to their highest levels since March 2017 the previous week as the market prepared for this month’s 75 bp rate hike from the Fed. However, the spot market, as per the DXY, has been testing below 104 which opens the risk of a deeper move into 103.  ''Speculation is beginning to emerge that the market may have over-estimated the extent to which the Fed may have to hike rates. This could soften net USD positions in forthcoming data,'' analysts at Rabobank argued.  DXY H1 chart The price of DXY has been breaking structure (BoS) to the downside and the latest formation could be the makings of an M-formation's resistance and a buy-to-sell scenario from the neckline to the price imbalance (PI) and order block (OB) below. In turn, this would be expected to support AUD in a bullish correction out of consolidation for the sessions ahead: Zooming in: The short-term schematic is bullish on a break of the 0.6925 resistance for a run to 0.6950. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) displayed a failed attempt to sustain above the critical resistance of $1,840.00 on Monday. The precious metal has turned sideway

Gold price is trading near the demand zone placed in a narrow range of $1,821.45-1,823.57.The impact of prohibiting Russian gold exports by the G7 countries is faded now.The upbeat US Durable Goods Orders have strengthened the DXY.Gold price (XAU/USD) displayed a failed attempt to sustain above the critical resistance of $1,840.00 on Monday. The precious metal has turned sideways after a sheer downside move and is expected to extend its losses after violating the crucial support of $1,820.85. It looks like the headline of banning Russian gold exports by the G7 countries has lost its significance and investors have started focusing on the solid fundamentals of the US dollar index (DXY) again. The DXY is hovering below the round-level resistance of 104.00 after displaying a responsive buying action around 103.70. The release of the upbeat Durable Goods Orders has supported the DXY bulls. The economic data landed at 0.7%, higher than the estimates of 0.1% and the prior release of 0.5%.  This has cleared that the overall demand structure in the US economy is rock solid. The demand prospects are resilient despite the headwinds of soaring price pressures. Going forward, investors’ focus will remain on the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, which is due on Wednesday. Fed Powell is expected to dictate the likely monetary policy action of July. Gold technical analysis Gold prices are oscillating near the potential demand zone, which is placed in a narrow range of $1,821.45-1,823.57 on an hourly scale. The precious metal is auctioning below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,833.56, which adds to the downside filters. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into a bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which signals that a fresh leg of selling is on its way. Gold hourly chart  

The AUD/JPY began the week on the wrong foot, slightly down in the day, though recovered from daily lows at 92.97 and reached a daily high at around 9

The AUD/JPY finished almost flat down by 0.06% on Monday.Quarter and month-end flow dominated the session weighing on US equities and also in risk-sensitive currencies.AUD/JPY Price Forecast: The cross is upward biased, but downside risks remain if it stays below 94.00.The AUD/JPY began the week on the wrong foot, slightly down in the day, though recovered from daily lows at 92.97 and reached a daily high at around 93.94, finally settling near 93.74, as market sentiment turned sour and US equities recorded losses. As quarter and month-end approached, Monday’s session witnessed portfolio rebalancing. That sparked the fall in equities, while US Treasury yields bounced off daily lows, led by the US 10-year Treasury yield, which gained eight basis points and is back above the 3.20% threshold. In the meantime, the AUD/JPY opened near 93.70 and dipped sharply below the 93.00 mark once the Monday Asian session began. Nevertheless, late in the same session, the cross marched firmly and was finally lifted near the 94.00 figure.AUD/JPY Daily chartThe cross-currency faced strong support at the 20-EMA around 94.15, capping AUD/JPY upward intentions, as the pair continues its consolidation within familiar ranges around 92.60-94.30. Further confirmation of the previously mentioned is the Relative Strenght Index (RSI) at 52.38 flat for the last couple of trading sessions, meaning that despite that the moving averages (MAs) are below the exchange rate,  the lack of a fresh upward impulse, keeps the pair constrained in the area mentioned above.AUD/JPY 1-Hour chartThe AUD/JPY hourly chart illustrates the pair is consolidating but slightly moving to the upside, though at the time of writing,  AUD/JPY buyers unable to break above the 200-EMA at 93.77 will leave the pair vulnerable to selling pressure. If that scenario plays out, the AUD/JPY first support would be the daily pivot at 93.60. Break below will expose the 50-EMA at 93.49, followed by the S1 pivot at 93.20. On the other hand, and on the path of least resistance, the AUD/JPY’s first resistance would be the 200-EMA at 93.77. A breach of the latter would expose 94.00, followed by the R1 daily pivot at 94.23, followed by the confluence of June 22, and the R2 daily pivot at 94.68.AUD/JPY Key Technical Levels 
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