Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate remains unchanged at 3.5%

The NBH meets today to set interest rates. Consensus is looking for a hike to 1.75%. EUR/HUF has seen a volatile ride over recent weeks but a 25bp rat

The NBH meets today to set interest rates. Consensus is looking for a hike to 1.75%. EUR/HUF has seen a volatile ride over recent weeks but a 25bp rate hike is set to stall the pair’s rally, economists at ING report. NBH has good cause to hike “ING’s Peter Virovacz looks for a 25bp hike and further indication that the base rate be hiked towards 2.50% by year-end – a move yet to be fully priced in by money markets.” “Assuming the NBH does deliver a hawkish 25bp hike today, we think the EUR/HUF rally can be contained. Indeed, the market may start to look at HUF through the prism of loose fiscal and tight monetary policy and as long as NBH delivers the tight monetary policy part, EUR/HUF should trade back below 350 again when global risk sentiment settles.”  

“Inflation could peak around November at around 3.4-3.5%,” the European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Inflation could peak around November at around 3.4-3.5%,” the European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos said in a statement on Tuesday. Further comments “Have not seen indication that wages are on the rise.” “Need to be vigilant to upside surprise on inflation.”

USD/CNH is gradually inching towards a potential hurdle of 6.5000. A break above here would clear the way towards the 6.5630 level, economists at Soci

USD/CNH is gradually inching towards a potential hurdle of 6.5000. A break above here would clear the way towards the 6.5630 level, economists at Société Générale report. Real estate group Evergrande fanning concerns of a harder landing “The test whether the yuan is headed back over 6.50 will come in the coming days, starting tomorrow when markets in China re-open after the extended weekend, and then Thursday when the deadline passes for Evergrande to make coupon and bank loan payments.” “We’ve been bemused by the resilience of the currency tactically to the downturn in the data as recently as last week, notwithstanding the anchor of the country’s current account surplus. The price action could repeat itself this week, but this time it could be contingent on whether the authorities can douse contagion fears for the broader Chinese economy.” “A break above 6.5000 is essential to affirm a retest of recent peak at 6.5300 with possibility to reach 6.5630.” “Consolidation above 6.4600 will be crucial for persistence in up move.”   

Gold price is consolidating Monday’s rebound, as the bulls turn cautious heading into the two-day FOMC meeting that begins later this Tuesday. Expecta

Gold price retreats towards six-week lows, downside favored.USD holds weaker amid improved risk sentiment, yields firm up. Gold bears in driver's seat as focus shifts to FOMC.Gold price is consolidating Monday’s rebound, as the bulls turn cautious heading into the two-day FOMC meeting that begins later this Tuesday. Expectations of Fed’s tapering plan remain alive and kicking tempering the mood around gold investors. Meanwhile, easing China's Evergrande scare has led to improvement in the risk sentiment, lifting the US Treasury yields at gold’s expense. However, gold buyers continue to find support from a broad-based US dollar retreat, thanks to the calm market tone. Gold price halts its recovery mode after the bulls ran into stiff resistance near the $1767-$1768 region, as the six-week lows at $1742 continue to lure the sellers amid hawkish Fed’s expectations and a data-light US docket. Read: Gold set to fall? Technicals to outweigh Evergrande risksGold Price: Key levels to watchThe Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price struggles around a bunch of healthy resistance levels near $1762-$1763. That level is the convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week. Acceptance above the latter could challenge the range highs near $1768-$1770, which is the intersection of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week and SMA100 one-hour. Further up, the SMA5 one-day at $1774 will test the offers on the road to recovery. The Fibonacci 61.8% one-month at $1778 would guard the further upside. Alternatively, if the bulls fail to resist above $1760 support, then a drop towards the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and Bollinger Band one-hour lower at $1757 cannot be ruled out. The Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at $1752 could emerge as minor support, below which the downside will open up towards $1742, the previous day’s low and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month. Here is how it looks on the tool About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Germany heads to elections this weekend. While the event itself will not be a game-changer, a growth-friendly mix of the SPD/Greens would likely reinf

Germany heads to elections this weekend.  While the event itself will not be a game-changer, a growth-friendly mix of the SPD/Greens would likely reinforce that the euro has started to carve out a bottom, strategists at TD Securities report. German election not a game-changer “German elections might alter the temperature in the room but won't fundamentally correct all the ills of the European project.” “What's essential for the near-term outlook is that our growth factors, and related signals, have started to turn in favor of EUR.” “Barring a centre-left polling surprise (where the Greens and SPD both outperform expectations), we don't think EUR will trade the election results aggressively.”

EUR/GBP has seen a strong rebound from the mid-July lows at 0.8505/00. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects

EUR/GBP has seen a strong rebound from the mid-July lows at 0.8505/00. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to enjoy further gains towards resistance at 0.8615/20 initially. See: EUR/GBP to move downward towards 0.83 by end-2022 – Danske Bank  Recovering off support at 0.8500 “UR/GBP has seen quite a reversal from the 0.8505/00 support, the lows from mid-July. This is currently indicated to be the end of wave 4 and we will go with this move and look to now buy the dips.” “The 20-day ma has been eroded and we would allow for gains to resistance at 0.8615/20. Above 0.8620 would allow for 0.8663, the 200-day ma and 0.8671, the July 2021 high. Above here lies the 0.8722 April high.”  

The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, jus

USD/JPY gained some positive traction on Tuesday and recovered a part of the overnight losses.The risk-on impulse in the markets undermined the safe-haven JPY and provided a modest lift.Rebounding US bond yields remained supportive; a modest USD weakness capped the upside.The USD/JPY pair maintained its bid tone heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, just above mid-109.00s. The pair attracted dip-buying on Tuesday and recovered a part of the previous day's sharp rejection slide from the key 110.00 psychological mark. A strong recovery in the global risk sentiment undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that provided a modest lift to the USD/JPY pair. The risk-on impulse in the markets triggered a fresh leg up in the US Treasury bond yields, which further contributed to the intraday positive move. However, a softer tone around the US dollar held bullish traders from placing aggressive bets and capped the upside for the USD/JPY pair, warranting caution before positioning for any further gains. Meanwhile, expectations for an imminent Fed taper announcement might continue to act as a tailwind for the greenback. Hence, any slide back towards the 109.30 region could still be seen as a buying opportunity. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair as the market focus remains glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. The Fed is scheduled to announce its decision during the US session on Wednesday and is widely anticipated to leave monetary policy settings unchanged. Hence, investors will look for clues about the likely timing of the Fed's tapering plan, which will influence the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Technical levels to watch  

Markets had previously seen the FOMC September meeting as the chance for Chair Jerome Powell to formally announce tapering. Softer inflation and a dis

Markets had previously seen the FOMC September meeting as the chance for Chair Jerome Powell to formally announce tapering. Softer inflation and a disappointing jobs report will likely deter Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues from announcing tapering. However, Powell could signal a move coming later this year, in the opinion of economists at ING. Too early to move, but set to turn a notch more hawkish “After weak jobs data and a slight decrease in inflation in August, we expect to see no changes in the Fed’s policy stance this week. Still, we think there will be a certain degree of acknowledgement that the current level of monetary accommodation may no longer be warranted and that asset purchases may start to be unwound by year-end. Such a tone on tapering may not generate much surprise in the market.”  “Markets may be sensitive to any signals about the timing of monetary tightening. It is quite a close call, but we do not expect the Median Dot Plot for the first rate hike to shift from 2023 to 2022. That would ultimately underpin Powell’s recent rhetoric around the de-linking of tapering and tightening, and keep rate expectations capped. In FX, this should translate into a weaker dollar after the FOMC announcement, with pro-cyclical currencies reaping most benefits.”  

USD/CAD has recovered from a recent 1.2494 decline, settling at a 1.2896 high. However, technical indicators and seasonality studies hint the pair may

USD/CAD has recovered from a recent 1.2494 decline, settling at a 1.2896 high. However, technical indicators and seasonality studies hint the pair may need a corrective decline before it finds fresh oxygen to challenge higher levels, Benjamin Wong, Strategist at DBS Bank, reports. Technical indicators show that USD/CAD rally requires a pause before continuing its race higher “There are hints from the technical indicators that the USD rally requires a pause before it finds fresh oxygen to continue its rally higher. Noticeably, the pair is close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the range drop from 1.4668 to 1.2007 at 1.3024; and a clear resistance confluence hosted by 100 and 200-week moving averages at 1.3046 and 1.3067, respectively.” “The seasonality charts show CAD enjoys bouts of strength into the October and November months.” “The price action appears to be contouring a bullish inverted head-and-shoulders pattern where any USD decline is merely filling the rungs of its right shoulder. Eventually, as major support levels hold up, USD/CAD would still revert higher in the medium-term.”  

The EUR/USD ended flat on the day, bouncing off the 1.1700 take-profit level ahead of risk events. Beyond the immediate horizon, downside risks still

The EUR/USD ended flat on the day, bouncing off the 1.1700 take-profit level ahead of risk events. Beyond the immediate horizon, downside risks still outweigh upside for now for the pair, according to economists at OCBC Bank. Sell on rallies “Technicals, underlying risk-off, and the pending FOMC decision all conspire to keep the pair weighted lower.” “Continue to prefer to sell on rallies, especially towards 1.1800, targeting 1.1680/00.”  

GBP/USD is poised to reach the 1.3622 55-week moving average. Below here lies the 1.3571 July low. Further falls are set to be seen on a failure to ho

GBP/USD is poised to reach the 1.3622 55-week moving average. Below here lies the 1.3571 July low. Further falls are set to be seen on a failure to hold above this level, according to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank. One-month highs at 1.3893/1.3914 provide overhead resistance “GBP/USD is poised to encounter its 55-week ma at 1.3635, this guards the 1.3571 July low and it is possible that this will hold the downside on the initial test.”  “Below the 1.3571 July low would target the 1.3504 January 2009 low and introduce scope to the 200-week ma at 1.3160.”  “Overhead resistance is provided by the one-month highs at 1.3893/1.3914.”  

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 21: Some calm has returned to markets early on Tuesday after Monday's massive Evergrande-related s

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 21: Some calm has returned to markets early on Tuesday after Monday's massive Evergrande-related selloff. The dollar is off the highs across the board. Uncertainty about Chinese policy prevails and is joined by tensions ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Canadian PM Trudeau has been reelected and cryptos remain depressed. Evergrande issue: China's second-largest real-estate company remains in dire financial straits but a growing chorus of banks such as Barclays, UBS, and Citi says that this is not a "Lehman moment" for the world's second-largest economy. While Evergrande will likely miss another debt payment and even go under, markets seem less fearful of contagion to the wider Chinese economy and the global economy.S&P 500 futures are pointing to a bounce after Friday's 1.7% fall on Monday, the worst since May. The safe-haven dollar is off the highs, with EUR/USD bouncing from 1.17 and GBP/USD nearing 1.37 once again. Gold is changing hands above $1,760, recovering from the lows as US 10-year Treasury yields cool. China remains on holiday on Tuesday, with all eyes on the People's Bank of China (PBOC) meeting on Wednesday critical to the next steps in the Evergrande drama. PBoC September Preview: Will policymakers step in to ease Evergrande fears? The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting on Tuesday and is set to announce no imminent changes to the policy on Wednesday. Softer inflation and a disappointing jobs report will likely deter Fed Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues from announcing tapering of the bank's $120 billion/month bond-buying scheme. However, Powell could signal a move coming later this year, despite concerns about the virus, Evergrande and supply-chain issues. He may soften such a signal by spreading the process.  See Fed Preview: Three ways in which Powell could down the dollar, and none is the dot-plot Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won reelection but failed to achieve an absolute majority, his aim in calling a snap election. USD/CAD is trading under 1.28, falling from the highs in a move related more to the Evergrande ease than anything else.  The US will open up to vaccinated travelers from Europe and other countries from November, a step that points to a sign of a return to normality. COVID-19 cases are falling in America, but remain above levels recorded in Europe. Cryptocurrencies have failed to recover from the Evergrande-related sell-off. One reason is a report that Gary Gensler, the SEC Commissioner, is set to enact a hard line against digital assets. Bitcoin is trading below $43,000, Ethereum under is struggling around $3,00 and Ada is at around $2.10.

There’s ‘some way to go’ before price increases raise concerns. Expect ECB to buy Greek debt in APP after PEPP over. more to come ...

There’s ‘some way to go’ before price increases raise concerns. Expect ECB to buy Greek debt in APP after PEPP over.   more to come ...

GBP/JPY edges higher on Tuesday in the early European trading hours. The pair took a recovery road after the previous day’s selling rout on fears of C

GBP/JPY manages to recover part of its previous day’s losses on Tuesday.Fed’s risk, higher energy prices, Brexit woes kept a lid on sterling performance.Market sentiment improves as China’s Evergrande group concerns ease.GBP/JPY edges higher on Tuesday in the early European trading hours. The pair took a recovery road after the previous day’s selling rout on fears of Chinese property giant Evergrande default risk.  At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY pair is trading at 149.81,up 0.24% for the day. Investors digested Evengrande default fears and geared up for the upcoming two-day Fed’s policy meeting.  The British pound gains on improved risk-appetite despite depressing economic factors. As per the report, the UK energy shock has left the government on the brink of providing a financial bailout to energy companies. But comments from the UK’s Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng,  who dismissed energy shortage warnings boosted the sentiment around the sterling. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be meeting with the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday to discuss a wider trade deal and better access to the country for vaccinated travellers.  Furthermore, the European Union (EU) diplomat said they would be  discussing the method to  resolve  the disagreement with the UK over trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland but will not renegotiate the former deal agreed in the Brexit divorce arrangement. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures is trading at 4,370 with 0.49% gains. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said it would take much more time to achieve its budget target of a primary balance surplus by fiscal 2025. As for now, investors are waiting for the UK CBI Industrial Trends orders to gauge the market sentiment. GBP/JPY additional levels
 

EUR/JPY has reached the 55-week moving average at 128.21. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to

EUR/JPY has reached the 55-week moving average at 128.21. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to stabilize above the 2020- 2021 support line at 127.31. Negative bias while below 130.25/55 “EUR/JPY has reached the 55-week ma at 128.21 and is seeing a small bounce higher, directly below here lies the 127.94 August low. We would allow for some profit-taking between here and the 2020-2021 support line at 127.31.”  “Below 127.31 would introduce scope to the 200-week ma at 125.39.”  “Rallies should remain capped 130.25/55 for a negative bias to be maintained.”  

Switzerland Exports (MoM): 20.111M (August) vs previous 21931M

Switzerland Imports (MoM) dipped from previous 16685M to 15.055M in August

Switzerland Imports (MoM) dipped from previous 16685M to 20.111M in August

UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann still sees the BoE hiking rates in 2023. Key Quotes “UK policymakers will probably want more time to see how the lab

UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann still sees the BoE hiking rates in 2023. Key Quotes “UK policymakers will probably want more time to see how the labour market adjusts to the expiration of the furlough scheme before withdrawing stimulus.” “While we certainly would not rule out an earlier move, our base case for now is still for the first rate hike to come in 2023.”

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing registered at £19.78B above expectations (£11.03B) in August

Switzerland Trade Balance fell from previous 5246M to 5055M in August

USD/CHF flirts with short-term support line, previous resistance, around 0.9275 during the pre-European session on Tuesday. Even so, bearish MACD sign

USD/CHF grinds lower despite staying above previous resistance line.20-SMA, bearish MACD challenges buyers, two-week-old rising trend line adds to the downside filters.USD/CHF flirts with short-term support line, previous resistance, around 0.9275 during the pre-European session on Tuesday. Even so, bearish MACD signals and failures to cross 20-SMA immediate hurdle challenges the Swiss currency (CHF) pair buyers, keeping sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of 0.9270 support line figures becomes necessary for the bears to tighten the grips and aim for an ascending support line from September 08, near 0.9250. Also acting as a downside filter are the early month tops surrounding 0.9230 and the 0.9200. On the flip side, recovery moves may gain momentum on crossing the 20-SMA level close to 0.9285. Following that, the monthly high near 0.9335 and March’s high close to 0.9375 will be in focus before directing the USD/CHF bulls to the yearly peak of 0.9472. To sum up, USD/CHF bulls fail to keep the reins and hence the previous day’s pullback is likely to extend. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Gold’s recovery faced stiff resistance just below the $1770 level. XAU/USD set to fall? Technicals are set to outweigh Evergrande risks, FXStreet’s Dh

Gold’s recovery faced stiff resistance just below the $1770 level. XAU/USD set to fall? Technicals are set to outweigh Evergrande risks, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta briefs. Gold price looks to resume the downside after Monday’s rebound “A minor improvement in the risk sentiment amid stabilizing Hong Kong equities and conciliatory comments from China Evergrande Chief caps gold’s recovery gains.” “Fed’s tapering plan appears intact, despite the latest China worries. The risk rebound could pick up pace, extending the rebound in the Treasury yields while lifting the demand for the greenback once again. In such a case, XAU/USD will likely resume its downside.” “The 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) is set to pierce the 50-DMA from above. If such a move materializes, then it would confirm a bear cross, opening floors for a fresh downswing towards the multi-week troughs near $1740. The $1700 psychological magnate will be on the sellers’ radars should the monthly lows give way.” “A sustained move above the $1767 supply zone is needed to unleash the recovery gains towards the 21 and 50-DMA confluence near $1795. Gold bulls will then aim for the horizontal 200-DMA at $1807, as the next upside target.”

Canadian PM Trudeau: Election result suggests a clear mandate to get Canada through the pandemic developing story ..

Canadian PM Trudeau: Election result suggests a clear mandate to get Canada through the pandemic  developing story ..

FX option expiries for September 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1685-90 565m 1.1725 501m 1.18

FX option expiries for September 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.1685-90 565m 1.1725 501m 1.1800 565m 1.1850 547m 1.1910-20 1b - USD/JPY: USD amounts          109.00 1.4b 109.50 766m 109.60-70 1b 111.50 470m - USD/CHF: USD amounts         0.9300 305m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7100 576m 0.7270 276m 0.7315 394m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.2710 360m 1.2800 1.6b

Palladium (XPD/USD) bears lick their wounds near $1,890, up 0.42% intraday as European traders brace for Tuesday’s bell. In doing so, the commodity pr

Palladium struggles to overcome multi-day low, mildly bid of late.Cautious optimism underpins corrective pullback, PBOC, Fed eyed.Palladium (XPD/USD) bears lick their wounds near $1,890, up 0.42% intraday as European traders brace for Tuesday’s bell. In doing so, the commodity prices overcome the lowest levels marked since June 2020, flashed the previous day, as market sentiment improves. Having offered a pessimistic start to the week, Evergrande Chairman Hui Ka Yan tried to defend the bulls while saying, per Reuters, “Confident the company will 'walk out of darkest moment'.” The same highlights the Chinese government’s action to save the real-estate player, which in turn highlights Wednesday’s People’s Bank of China (PBOC) monetary policy meeting. Also positive for the markets could be increasing hopes of the US stimulus, as conveyed by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as well as an extension of the American debt limit urged by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Furthermore, an absence of major negative catalysts and holidays in China battles the bears, which in turn drags the US Dollar Index (DXY) from the monthly top. While portraying the risk-on mood, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.30% intraday gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate the latest losses around 1.31% by the press time. In addition to the aforementioned catalysts, short-covering moves near the multi-month lows add to the Palladium’s corrective pullback. However, the traders remain cautious ahead of the week’s important events, scheduled for publishing on Wednesday. Among them, monetary policy meetings by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) take the front seat. Also important will be the return of Chinese traders after a long weekend. Technical analysis XPD/USD corrective portrays a bounce off monthly support line, around $1,840, but recovery moves need to cross a two-week-old resistance line near $1,990 to convince even short-term buyers.  

In light of preliminary prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest shrank for the third consecutive session on Monday, this

In light of preliminary prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest shrank for the third consecutive session on Monday, this time by around 9.4K contracts. In the same line, volume add to the previous drop and went down by around 19.1K contracts. Natural Gas looks supported below $5.00 Monday’s inconclusive price action in natural gas was in tandem with declining open interest and volume, opening the door to some consolidation around current levels in the very near term. Sellers, therefore, face decent contention in levels just below the $5.00 mark per MMBtu for the time being.

All the attention remains on the Fed and the probable announcement of the timing at when the Fed will start trimming its bond-buying programme, noted

All the attention remains on the Fed and the probable announcement of the timing at when the Fed will start trimming its bond-buying programme, noted Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group. Key Quotes “Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium did not change our view and we still expect the Fed to further articulate a pledge of the taper timeline in the upcoming 21-22 September 2021 FOMC, which will likely last for nearly 1.5 years until May 2023.” “Thereafter, we project two 25bps rate hikes for 2023, first to 0.25%-0.50% in June and to 0.50%-0.75% in December.”

Leader of Canada's opposition Conservatives Party, Erin O' Toole, said that he has conceded defeat in the election, per Reuters. more to come ,,,

Leader of Canada's opposition Conservatives Party, Erin O' Toole, said that he has conceded defeat in the election, per Reuters.   more to come ,,,

CME Group’s advanced figures for crude oil futures markets noted traders scaled back their open interest for the third straight session at the beginni

CME Group’s advanced figures for crude oil futures markets noted traders scaled back their open interest for the third straight session at the beginning of the week, this time by around 18.4K contracts. Volume, instead, rose by around 44K contracts, reversing at the same time two consecutive daily pullbacks. WTI looks well supported around $70.00 Monday’s pullback in prices of the WTI met contention around the $70.00 mark. The move was accompanied by diminishing open interest, which removes some strength from bearish attempts in the very near term. Immediate target on the upside, in the meantime, remains at the $74.00 mark per barrel and beyond.

WTI extends rebound from a one-month-old support line towards $71.00, up 0.53% on a day around $70.70 by the press time of the pre-European session on

WTI recovers from weekly low, refreshes intraday top of late.Bullish MACD, short-term key support line favor recovery moves.Convergence of previous resistance line, 50-DMA adds to the downside support.Bullish Doji’s top challenges the advances towards monthly high.WTI extends rebound from a one-month-old support line towards $71.00, up 0.53% on a day around $70.70 by the press time of the pre-European session on Tuesday. The commodity’s recovery moves also gain support from bullish MACD signals aim at the rejection of last week’s bearish candlestick formation, by an upside clearance of $72.75. Following that, the monthly high near $72.90 and late July tops close to $73.90 will challenge the oil buyers. Meanwhile, a downside break of the stated support line, around $70.40, will have to get validation from the $70.00 threshold to recall the black gold bears. Even so, a convergence of a downward sloping trend line from early July and 50-DMA, around $69.10, will be a tough nut to crack for WTI bears. Overall, the quote remains in recovery mode but on a bumpy road to the north. WTI: Daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

In opinion of Economist Lee Sue Ann at UOB Group, the BoJ is forecast to stick to the accommodative stance for the time being. Key Quotes “Japan’s wea

In opinion of Economist Lee Sue Ann at UOB Group, the BoJ is forecast to stick to the accommodative stance for the time being. Key Quotes “Japan’s weak inflation outlook reinforces our view that the BoJ will not be tightening anytime soon and will maintain its massive stimulus in the next few years, possibly at least until FY2023.” “Markets are convinced that the BoJ has reached the end of the line on normalization and will remain in a holding pattern on policy until at least April 2023 when Governor Kuroda is scheduled to leave the BoJ.”

Open interest in gold futures markets shrank for the second session in a row on Monday, this time by nearly 7K contracts, according to flash data from

Open interest in gold futures markets shrank for the second session in a row on Monday, this time by nearly 7K contracts, according to flash data from CME Group. Volume followed suit and went down for the second consecutive day, now by more than 37K contracts. Gold risks further decline Monday’s positive price action in gold was amidst shrinking open interest and volume, undermining the idea of the continuation of the rebound, at least in the very near term. On the upside, the $1,800 mark per ounce troy keeps limiting occasional bullish attempts.

USD/CNH remains pressured around intraday low, down for the first time in four days as European traders brace for Tuesday’s task. The offshore Chinese

USD/CNH keeps pullback from monthly high near intraday low.Evergrande fears fade as traders brace for PBOC, Fed.Market sentiment improves amid mixed concerns, lack of major negatives.USD/CNH remains pressured around intraday low, down for the first time in four days as European traders brace for Tuesday’s task. The offshore Chinese currency (CNH) pair eases on the market’s consolidation ahead of the key monetary policy meetings by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Behind the moves is the cautious optimism in the market as Evergrande Chairman Tries to placate bears, as well as the lack of major data/events that negatively affect the risk appetite. It’s worth noting that the consolidation ahead of tomorrow’s PBOC decision could also be linked to the latest USD/CNH moves. Furthermore, increasing hopes of the US stimulus, as conveyed by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as well as an extension of the American debt limit urged by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, exert additional downside pressure on the USD/CNH prices. Even so, an off in China and fears concerning the Fed tapering challenge the pair sellers. While portraying the risk-on mood, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.30% intraday gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate the latest losses around 1.31% by the press time. It’s worth observing that the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.07% intraday loss while easing to 93.20, from a monthly high. Looking forward, PBOC may ease monetary policy further to release some pressure off the economy, piled due to the Evergrande saga. However, any surprise won’t hesitate to drag the quote back below the 200-SMA. Read: PBoC September Preview: Will policymakers step in to ease Evergrande fears? Following that, the Fed tapering woes bear mixed concerns and hence become a wild card for the markets to follow. Read: Can the Fed disrupt stock market gains, and why China’s evergrande is causing wobbles elsewhere Technical analysis 200-DMA around $6.4730 challenges the USD/CNH pullback from a two-month-old resistance line, close to $6.4880.  

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, expects the PBoC to keep the LPR unchanged at this week’s meeting. Key Quotes “Monetary policy support is likely

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, expects the PBoC to keep the LPR unchanged at this week’s meeting. Key Quotes “Monetary policy support is likely to be stepped up as recent economic data pointed to sharply weaker outlook in 2H21.” “While we expect the PBoC to cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by another 50 bps before year-end, the 1Y LPR and the 5Y & above LPR are likely to be kept unchanged for the rest of 2021 at 3.85% and 4.65%, respectively, given PBoC’s concerns of financial imbalances.”

AUD/USD refreshes intraday high to 0.7277, up 0.30% intraday around 0.7275 by the press time of the pre-European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the

AUD/USD snaps three-day downtrend, stays inside bearish chart pattern.50% Fibonacci retracement, channel’s resistance challenge bulls ahead of 200-SMA.Monthly horizontal support adds to the downside filters.AUD/USD refreshes intraday high to 0.7277, up 0.30% intraday around 0.7275 by the press time of the pre-European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the Aussie pair rebounds from late August lows, as well as support line of a fortnight-old descending trend channel amid a gradually firming RSI line. However, AUD/USD buyers remain unconvinced below a confluence of the stated channel’s resistance line and 50% Fibonacci retracement of late August to early September upside, around 0.7290. Also acting as upside filters is the 0.7300 threshold and the 200-SMA level surrounding 0.7315. Meanwhile, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.7247 restricts immediate downside ahead of short-term horizontal support near 0.7220. Even if the AUD/USD bears keep reins below 0.7220, the 0.7200 round figure, also comprising the stated channel’s support line, will challenge the further downside. To sum up, AUD/USD prints corrective pullback but the bulls remain cautious unless crossing 0.7315. AUD/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

USD/INR extends the previous session’s decline in the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The pair opened higher but failed to preserve the upsid

USD/INR edges lower on Tuesday for the second straight session.Price trades below 50-day and 100-day SMA confluence.Momentum oscillator holds onto the oversold zone for a longer time frame.USD/INR extends the previous session’s decline in the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The pair opened higher but failed to preserve the upside momentum. At the time of writing, USD/INR is trading at 73.60, down 0.06 % for the day. USD/INR daily chart On the daily chart, USD/INR is facing a strong resistance barrier below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 73.80 with multiple tops formations since September 8. USD/INR bears would take the center stage if price sustained below intraday’s low of 73.57. In that case, the first downside target would appear at the 73.40 horizontal support level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds onto the oversold zone. Any downtick in the MACD could push USD/INR toward the 73.10 horizontal support level. Next, USD/INR bears would likely retest the low of 72.89 made on September’s series commencement. Alternatively, on the higher side the bulls would first encounter the 100-day SMA at 73.80. On successful test of the mentioned level, USD/INR would make the next move toward the high made on August 27 at 74.19. Furthermore, a daily close above the 20-day SMA will enhances the possibility of the 74.50 horizontal resistance level for the pair. USD/INR additional levels  

Asia-Pacific shares dwindle during early Tuesday as markets overcome the Evergrande saga amid the second day of the bank holiday in China. The consoli

Asian equities consolidate recent losses, mostly heavy though.Japan begins the week with over 1.5% losses, Australia prints mild gains.RBNZ’s Hawksby stays cautiously optimistic but RBNZ rate hike in jitters.PBOC’s move to defend Chinese money flow from Evergrande shock, Fed tapering in focus.Asia-Pacific shares dwindle during early Tuesday as markets overcome the Evergrande saga amid the second day of the bank holiday in China. The consolidation could also be linked to the comments from Aussie and New Zealand central bankers, as well as from the Chair of the Chinese troubled real-estate firm. That said, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan drops 0.28% intraday while Japan kick-starts the key week, after Monday’s holiday, with 1.8% intraday losses by the press time. Australia’s ASX 200 prints mild gains as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes reject rate hike concerns, also highlighting the virus woes. On the other hand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Assistant Governor Christian Hawksby defends the central bank’s hawkish bias, resulting in mild losses of NZX 50 by the press time. The chairman of troubled China Evergrande Group, Hui Ka Yan, tried to defend the bulls while saying, per Reuters, “Confident the company will 'walk out of darkest moment'.” The same highlights the Chinese government’s action to save the real-estate player, which in turn highlights Wednesday’s People’s Bank of China (PBOC) monetary policy meeting. Elsewhere, traders in Indonesia and India both follow the sluggish tone of the markets with smaller losses amid cautious mood ahead of tomorrow’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision. On a broader front, US stimulus and debt limit chatters, as well as updates concerning the United Nations (UN) meet, also underpin the recent rebound in risk appetite. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.30% intraday gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate the latest losses around 1.31% by the press time. It’s worth observing that the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.07% intraday loss while easing to 93.20, from a monthly high. Moving on, investors will keep their eyes on any updates concerning Evergrande and covid while the Fed and PBOC are set to rock the markets tomorrow. Read: Can the Fed disrupt stock market gains, and why China’s evergrande is causing wobbles elsewhere

NZD/USD picks up bids to 0.7024, following a downtick to a fresh monthly low, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the kiwi pair struggles between 50-da

NZD/USD recovers after refreshing monthly low, prints four-day losing streak.200-day EMA challenges bears ahead of the key Fibonacci retracement levels.NZD/USD picks up bids to 0.7024, following a downtick to a fresh monthly low, during early Tuesday. In doing so, the kiwi pair struggles between 50-day and 200-day EMAs amid bearish MACD. Given the MACD conditions and sustained trading below 50-day EMA, NZD/USD may remain pressured towards breaking the immediate support of 0.7020, comprising the 200-day EMA. However, the 0.7000 psychological magnet may challenge the pair sellers afterward, if not then the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of August-September upside, respectively near 0.6985 and 0.6940, will be in focus. On the flip side, a clear break of 50-day EMA, near 0.7040 at the press time, becomes necessary to convince buyers for fresh entry. Following that, September 08 low close to 0.7075 and the 0.7100 round figure will challenge NZD/USD buyers. Overall, NZD/USD sellers seem tired and hence a corrective pullback can’t be ruled out. NZD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

The USD/CAD pair trades just below 1.2800 on Tuesday following the previous session’s spectacular gains. The pair peaked at five-month high near 1.290

USD/CAD edges lower in the Asian session on Tuesday amid corrective pullback.Mixed Canadian federal  election polls, oil recovery influences Loonie’s  performance.US Dollar Index remains strong  above 93.00 despite mild correction of late.The USD/CAD pair trades just below 1.2800 on Tuesday following the previous session’s spectacular  gains. The pair peaked at five-month high near 1.2900 in the overnight session backed by the greenback’s  strength. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2794, down 0.25% for the day. The major theme for today’s session remains the upcoming Canadian election’s  result, where a clear majority of Justin Trudeau’s  party would bring much needed political stability in the country. Nevertheless, as per the Canadian network CTV’s decision desk Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is winning the election while declaring Trudeau as the next Prime Minister for the third straight term. However it was not clear the party had a minority or majority. Meanwhile, crude oil prices locked gains as experts pointed to signs of tightening US supplies. ANZ analyst said, global utilities are switching to fuel oil due to rising gas and coal prices. Furthermore, reduced output from the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Ada implied lesser supply in near term. As for now, traders are waiting for Canada’s New Housing Price Index, US Housing Starts, and Building Permits to take fresh trading impetus. USD/CAD additional levels  

GBP/USD eases from intraday top to 1.3665, still keeping corrective pullback from monthly low ahead of Tuesday’s London open. The cable pair’s latest

GBP/USD keeps recovery moves from monthly low, snaps three-day downtrend.DXY eases despite firmer Treasury yields as market sentiment improves.UK eases travel norms, terms France as friends.UK PM Johnson’s UN appearance, China’s Evergrande and Fed will be in focus.GBP/USD eases from intraday top to 1.3665, still keeping corrective pullback from monthly low ahead of Tuesday’s London open. The cable pair’s latest rebound prints the first positive day in four as the US dollar softens on mildly upbeat market sentiment. The absence of Chinese traders and US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s cautious optimism over $3.5 trillion stimulus, not to forget UK PM Boris Johnson’s comments for France and Britain’s easing of travel normal, risk appetite has many reasons to overcome Evergrande fears. Also favoring the consolidation could be the light calendar and mixed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) action on Wednesday. US House Speaker Pelosi stays hopeful for a $3.5 trillion stimulus despite Joe Manchin’s push to the talks towards 2022. The reason could be linked to the policymaker’s readiness to ease stand over the Republican demands. The global push towards clean energy, mainly by UK PM Boris Johnson, joins US President Joe Biden’s promotion to the United Nations (UN) partnership to underpin the latest cautious optimism. On the same line were chatters relating to the US debt limit extension and recently positive US housing data, which in turn challenges the Fed tapering concerns. Also on the positive side could be comments from the UK’s business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng who rejected warnings about energy shortages. Furthermore, UK PM Johnson’s statements that Britain's relationship with France is "indestructible" also favor the cross-currency pair to pick up bids of late. The risk-on mood could be well observed through by S&P 500 Futures’ 0.30% intraday gains, as well as the US 10-year Treasury yields that consolidate the latest losses around 1.31% by the press time. It’s worth observing that the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints 0.03% intraday loss while easing to 93.20, from a monthly high. Given the upbeat market sentiment and the US dollar pullback, GBP/USD traders may remain hopeful ahead of UK PM Johnson’s visit to the US. However, fears relating to the Fed tapering, China’s reaction to the Evergrande saga and covid woes may challenge the pair buyers. Additionally, the Bank of England (BOE) is also up for conveying the latest monetary policy decision and the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) on Thursday. Read: Week ahead: Fed meeting and Bank of England take centre stage Technical analysis A two-month-old rising support line near 1.3640 challenges GBP/USD downside ahead of August month’s low of 1.3602. Recovery moves, however, need to cross September 09 low around 1.3730 to convince buyers.  

In the view of the analysts at Citigroup, China’s policymakers will step up measures and prevent the China Evergrande Group crisis from becoming a “Le

In the view of the analysts at Citigroup, China’s policymakers will step up measures and prevent the China Evergrande Group crisis from becoming a “Lehman Moment” for the country. Key quotes “Policymakers will likely uphold the bottom line of preventing systematic risk to buy time for resolving the debt risk, and push forward marginal easing for the overall credit environment.” “Analysis of banks’ loan exposure to high-risk developers suggest credit risk is the highest for China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ping An Bank Co. and China Everbright Bank Co.” Bank of Nanjing Co., Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co., Postal Savings Bank of China Co. are less vulnerable and “we would see any dip as an enhanced opportunity to buy quality names.” Related readsChina's Evergrande Chairman: Confident the company will 'walk out of darkest moment'S&P downgrades another China property developer, says Evergrande likely to default

US Treasury Secretary Yellen to meet UK PM Johnson on Wednesday more to come ...

US Treasury Secretary Yellen to meet UK PM Johnson on Wednesday  more to come ...

The chairman of troubled China Evergrande Group, Hui Ka Yan, is out on the wires now, via Reuters, offering some conciliatory comments in a bid to cal

The chairman of troubled China Evergrande Group, Hui Ka Yan, is out on the wires now, via Reuters, offering some conciliatory comments in a bid to calm the market nerves. Key quotes “Confident the company will 'walk out of the darkest moment' and deliver property projects.” “Will fulfill responsibilities to property buyers, investors, partners and financial institutions.”    more to come ...

EUR/USD trades mildly higher in the Asian session on Tuesday amid cautious optimism. The pair remained mostly consolidated at the beginning of the day

EUR/USD attempts recovery on Tuesday after the previous day’s fall out.US Dollar Index pares initial gains still remains elevated above 93.00.Ebbed China’s Evergrande fear , pre-fed anxiety helps Euro gains.EUR/USD trades mildly higher in the Asian session on Tuesday amid cautious optimism. The pair remained mostly consolidated at the beginning    of the day before comprising a sudden uptick during the trading session and touched intraday high of 1.1740. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1734, up 0.08% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the greenback against the six majors, subsided from the initial higher levels to trade near 92.30 following the US House Speaker Pelosi comments. In the latest development, the US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she hopes for a $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill but remained prepared for any adjustment. The prospects of House and Senate passage of the bill this week remained bleak over the disagreement among Democrats in both houses.  An uptick in the US 10-year benchmark yields at 1.32% limits the downside in the greenback as investors digested China’s property giant Evergrande default risk and FOMC meeting anxiety.  Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to pull back stimulus in the two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday  by reducing monthly bond purchases while keeping in mind that it should not be considered as a signal to a sooner rate hike. It is worth noting that, S&P 500 is trading at 4,361, up 0.30% for the day. Investors turn their attention to US Current Account data, Housing Start, and Building Permits  to take  fresh trade insight.  EUR/USD additional levels
 

Trudeau wins third term as Canada’s Prime Minister – CTV projects more to come ...

Trudeau wins third term as Canada’s Prime Minister – CTV projects  more to come ...

The US rating agency Standard and Poor’s slashed Sinic Holdings’ credit rating to CCC, citing that the firm has not communicated a clear repayment pla

The US rating agency Standard and Poor’s slashed Sinic Holdings’ credit rating to CCC, citing that the firm has not communicated a clear repayment plan timing of any remittance is uncertain. The global rating agency placed Sinic Holdings on CreditWatch Negative.   more to come ...

Gold (XAU/USD) picks up bids to refresh intraday high around $1,765, rising for the second consecutive day, during early Tuesday. The yellow metal dro

Gold picks up bids, keeps recovery moves from six-week low.Market sentiment improves amid off in China, pre-Fed chatters and stimulus hopes.US housing data, risk catalysts can offer intermediate moves ahead of the key Wednesday.Gold Price Forecast: A lower low hints at another leg southGold (XAU/USD) picks up bids to refresh intraday high around $1,765, rising for the second consecutive day, during early Tuesday. The yellow metal dropped to the lowest since August 11 the previous day before bouncing off $1,742. The corrective pullback gains additional back-up from cautious optimism in the market of late. Another day of Chinese traders’ absence, as well as a lack of fresh fears, could be cited as the main catalysts for the latest risk-on mood. Furthermore, comments over the United Nations meeting this week signal that the global leaders will agree on the climate change accord and could also overcome fears from Iran, due to no schedule for the direct talks, to favor the risk appetite. On the same line, US President Joe Biden’s push for partnership with the United Nations (UN) to solve the key problems as well as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s hopes for a $3.5 stimulus brightens the mood too. On the contrary, comments from the global rating agency S&P, signaling that China’s Evergrande will default join the Fed tapering woes to keep the optimists in check. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print 0.30% intraday loss, bouncing off a two-month low whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate the latest losses around 1.31% by the press time. Moving on, US housing market figures may entertain traders but the headlines over the Fed and China will be crucial to follow for fresh impulse ahead of the all-important Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy and China’s return from holidays on Wednesday. Read: Can the Fed disrupt stock market gains, and why China’s evergrande is causing wobbles elsewhere Technical analysis Gold’s rebound from early August levels enables it to regain past July lows, suggesting short-term recovery towards a confluence of 10-DMA and a monthly horizontal line near $1,780. However, bearish MACD signals hint at the seller’s dominance, which if ignored could direct the gold buyers towards the $1,800 threshold and the double tops surrounding $1,834 afterward. In a case where the gold bulls manage to cross the $1,834 hurdle, they can aim for June’s top close to $1,917. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain less worrisome unless staying beyond July’s low of $1,750. Following that, a horizontal area from August 10, near $1,740-35, will precede the $1,700 round figure to lure the bears. Gold: Daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

The US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Tuesday that she hopes for a $3.5 trillion spending bill but is prepared for any adjustments. Key quotes "I

The US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Tuesday that she hopes for a $3.5 trillion spending bill but is prepared for any adjustments. Key quotes "I have promised Members that we would not have House Members vote for a bill with a higher topline than would be passed by the Senate.   Hopefully, that will be at the $3.5 trillion number.  We must be prepared for adjustments according to the Byrd rule and an agreed to number. This week, we must take decisive action on proceeding with the Build Back Better reconciliation legislation."

AUD/USD pays a little heed to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes while taking rounds to 0.7255-60 during early Tuesda

AUD/USD keeps recovery moves from monthly low, seesaws around intraday high of late.RBA Minutes reiterate virus-led challenges to the economy and rejects rate hike before 2024.Market sentiment improves despite fresh virus-led local lockdowns in Australia, ongoing Evergrande saga and Fed tapering woes.Cautious optimism concerning UN battles mixed comments from Aussie PM, second-tier US data risk catalysts eyed ahead of key Wednesday.AUD/USD pays a little heed to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes while taking rounds to 0.7255-60 during early Tuesday, up 0.08% intraday. In doing so, the risk barometer tracks mildly bid S&P 500 Futures to consolidate recent losses around monthly low. As per the latest RBA Minutes, “Members recognized that the outbreak of the delta variant was delaying the recovery and had added to the uncertainty about the future.” Even so, the statement adds that the economy was expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased. Hence, mixed comments confuse AUD/USD traders amid sluggish markets and off in China. Read: RBA Minutes: Central scenario is conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024 Other than the cautious optimism conveyed by the RBA, the market’s consolidation of the latest losses also allows the AUD/USD pair to keep the rebound from the monthly low. Behind the corrective pullback in market sentiment seems another day of Chinese traders’ absence, as well as a lack of fresh fears. Also on the positive side could be the recently upbeat ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Sentiment survey that finds the Aussie inflation expectations rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.6% during the four-week average. Furthermore, comments over the United Nations meeting this week hints at the global leaders’ ability to agree on the climate change accord despite turning down the direct talks with Iran. It should be noted that the Aussie Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s comments dimming the hope of the deal with the European Union (EU) join US President Joe Biden’s push for partnership with the United Nations (UN) to solve the key problems weigh on the market sentiment. Even so, 7-day snap lockdowns for Byron and Tweed Shires of Australia challenge the recovery moves. Additionally, comments from the global rating agency S&P, signaling that China’s Evergrande will default join the Fed tapering woes to keep the optimists in check. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print 0.30% intraday loss, bouncing off a two-month low whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate the latest losses around 1.31% by the press time. As traders lick their wounds, US second-tier data, mainly relating to housing, may entertain AUD/USD traders ahead of the key Fed meeting and China’s return on Wednesday. Also important are the headlines over Evergrande. Technical analysis Unless crossing a convergence of 20-DMA and 50-DMA, around 0.7335-40, AUD/USD remains vulnerable to retest the yearly low near 0.7100. However, one-month-old horizontal support, close to 0.7220, may offer immediate support.  

The RBA Minutes September meeting are released and the central scenario is conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024. Key notes to follow...

The RBA Minutes September meeting are released and the central scenario is conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024. Key notes Board committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions. Outbreak of the delta variant had delayed, but not derailed, the recovery. Economy was expected to bounce back as vaccination rates increase and restrictions are eased. Board will continue to review the bond purchase program in light of economic conditions and the health situation. Considerable uncertainty about the timing and pace of the recovery, which was likely to be slower than experienced earlier. Bank's bond purchase program is expanding faster relative to the stock of bonds outstanding than that of many other central banks. Members continued to emphasise the importance of maintaining lending standards. Progress towards the bank's goals was likely to take longer and was less assured given delta. Members recognised that the outbreak of the delta variant was delaying the recovery and had added to the uncertainty about the future. AUD/USD reaction AUD/USD is a touch lower on the release considering the dovish tilt but remains within the session's range of between 0.7241 and 0.7266. AUD/USD Price Analysis: RBA Minutes in focus, break of 0.7220s eyed About RBA minutes The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes of its monetary policy meeting two weeks after the interest rate decision is announced. It provides a detailed record of the discussions held between the RBA’s board members on monetary policy and economic conditions that influenced their decision on adjusting interest rates and/or bond buys, significantly impacting the AUD. The minutes also reveal considerations on international economic developments and the exchange rate value.

The USD/INR price is consolidated following a series of range-bound candles on the daily chart. The following illustrates the market structure on the

USD/INR tries to break the sideways channel in daily chart consolidation. The price has penetrated the 61.8% but sits back on the 50% mean reversion point.The USD/INR price is consolidated following a series of range-bound candles on the daily chart. The following illustrates the market structure on the daily chart and the potential scenarios for the days ahead.  The price has corrected to a 61.8% golden ratio but can't catch momentum to the upside. This leaves the downside favourable for a downside continuation although the bullish weekly close is a cautionary feature for bears.  Moreover, a W-formation has been printed which would be expected to limit the price from rising too far before a re-test of the neckline near 73.7250. The price is range-bound on the daily chart between support and resistance, or 73.20 and 73.80 in the main. The price needs to break these levels one way or the other with a daily close or two to confirm the bias. In doing so, the next support and resistance structures will be targetted near 72.80 and 74.20. 

USD/CAD sellers attack 1.2800 threshold during the first negative daily performance amid early Tuesday. The Loonie pair rose to the highest since Augu

USD/CAD snaps three-day uptrend, eases from monthly peak.Firmer Momentum keeps buyers hopeful but RSI conditions, monthly resistance line challenge further upside.Convergence of 20-DMA, 12-day-old support line challenges sellers.USD/CAD sellers attack 1.2800 threshold during the first negative daily performance amid early Tuesday. The Loonie pair rose to the highest since August 20 the previous day. However, failures to stay firmer beyond an ascending resistance line from August 27 joined nearly overbought RSI conditions to trigger the latest pullback moves. Even so, a sustained trading below the two-month-old horizontal area surrounding 1.2800 becomes necessary for the USD/CAD sellers to take fresh entry. Following that, the early September high near 1.2760 and the 1.2700 round-figure may entertain traders ahead of challenging them with 1.2650-55 support confluence including 20-DMA and an ascending support line from September 03. Should USD/CAD drops below 1.2650, it will confirm the rising wedge bearish chart pattern and will become vulnerable to decline towards the late July lows near 1.2420. Meanwhile, recovery moves need to cross the stated resistance line, around 1.2830 to recall the bulls. Following that, the 1.2900 round figure and the yearly peak of 1.2949 will be in focus. Hence, USD/CAD teases pullback but the bulls remain hopeful unless witnessing a downside break of 1.2650. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

It’s Sept. 20, which means federal election day has finally arrived. We’ll be live all day and night as Canadians go to the polls and election results

It’s Sept. 20, which means federal election day has finally arrived. We’ll be live all day and night as Canadians go to the polls and election results roll in. Canada's ruling liberals are ahead in 24 seats in the Atlantic region as first polls close, down from 27 won in 2019. Market implications Investors in equities are casting a nervous eye over some of the campaign promises made by Canadian political parties, including Trudeau’s vow to raise corporate taxes on the most profitable banks and insurers. ''Both (Liberal & CPC) platforms propose significant new spending, but we see a slightly larger economic impact from the Liberals (with larger deficits from 2023 onward), even if the election is not much of a market event,'' analysts at TD Securities said. 

EUR/GBP trades mildly lower following the previous session’s splendid gains. The pair hovers in a very narrow trade band with no meaningful traction.

EUR/GBP remains muted in the Asian session on Tuesday.Price moves in a broader trading range of 0.8500 and 0.8600.Momentum oscillators trade with positive bias.EUR/GBP trades mildly lower following the previous session’s splendid gains. The pair hovers in a very narrow trade band with no meaningful traction. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8585, down 0.02% for the day. EUR/GBP daily chart On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP cross-currency pair has been trading in a broader trading range of 0.8500 and 0.8600, which constitutes a rectangle technical formation starting from August 19. Currently, the price moves along with the higher trendline of the mentioned rectangle price pattern.  A break of the formation on the higher side would ignite a fresh round of buying pressure in the pair with the first upside target appearing at the 0.8620 horizontal resistance level. In doing so, EUR/GBP bulls would then make a way to reach the 0.8640  horizontal resistance level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades above the midline with a bullish crossover. Any uptick in the MACD would encourage bulls to retest the high made in the month of July at 0.8669 (July 20).
 
Alternatively, if the price moves lower in that case, the bears would meet the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8565. Next, EUR/GBP bears would aim at the previous day’s low of 0.8532 followed by the lower trendline of the channel at 0.8500. EUR/GBP additional levels
 

From a daily perspective, the price was offered into prior lows overnight that had been acting as a support structure. Ordinarily, we would expect a c

AUD/USD attempts a recovery towards 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci ratios.RBA Minutes could rock the apple cart in near-term trade. From a daily perspective, the price was offered into prior lows overnight that had been acting as a support structure. Ordinarily, we would expect a correction at this juncture to test at least the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci ratios before the next leg to the downside: AUD/USD daily chart A move to the downside would target the overnight lows in the 0.7220s and fill in the wick. The wick represents a lower time frame correction. The mid-Aug lows of 0.7105 are thereafter. However, if sentiment really deteriorates a big risk-off move making for disorderly gyrations in the financial markets would be expected to weigh heavily on proxy currencies such as the Aussie. The RBA Minutes September meeting are scheduled for near term trade which could rock the apple cart if they will provide colour on the risks to the central case forecasts. An overtly dovish theme could see AUD move lower over the release. A hawkish tilt, which is unlikely, would be expected to support the currency.  Governor Philip Lowe recently argued that “there is a clear path out of the current difficulties and it is likely that we will return to a stronger economy next year.” But he admitted to a lower degree of confidence about the economic rebound on looser restrictions, given that Australia won’t return to ‘Covid zero.’ Lowe also took aim at money market pricing: “I find it difficult to understand why rate rises are being priced in next year or early 2023.” He argued that “it will take some time for wage increases to lift to a rate that is consistent with achieving the inflation target.” Meanwhile, we have a hanging man on the hourly chart at resistance which does not bode well for a market that is trying to move higher:

GBP/JPY rebound aims to regain 150.00, up 0.13% intraday near 149.65 during early Tuesday. The cross-currency pair dropped the most since July the pre

GBP/JPY picks up bids to refresh intraday top, snaps five-day downtrend.S&P 500 Futures consolidate losses around two-month low.Traders digest Evergrande woes as off in China restrict market reactions.UK PM Johnson pushes for climate pledge, says relationship with France "indestructible".GBP/JPY rebound aims to regain 150.00, up 0.13% intraday near 149.65 during early Tuesday. The cross-currency pair dropped the most since July the previous day amid risk-off mood before the recent consolidation in the markets allowed the U-turn from a two-month low. Although Japan’s Nikkei 225 drops 1.65% by the press time, S&P 500 Futures recover from July 20 lows, gaining 0.30% on a day near 4,361 at the latest. The global push towards clean energy, mainly by UK PM Boris Johnson, joins US President Joe Biden’s promotion to the United Nations (UN) partnership to underpin the latest cautious optimism. On the same line were chatters relating to the US debt limit extension and recently positive US housing data, which in turn challenges the Fed tapering concerns. Also on the positive side could be comments from the UK’s business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng who rejected warnings about energy shortages. Furthermore, UK PM Johnson’s statements that Britain's relationship with France is "indestructible" also favor the cross-currency pair to pick up bids of late. On the contrary, China’s Evergrande remains as the key risk when the full markets return on Wednesday. Also challenging the sentiment is the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting the Bank of England (BOE) meeting, respectively on Wednesday and Thursday. Given the odds of witnessing sour sentiment ahead being higher than the latest rebound, GBP/JPY bulls should remain cautious and check macros for fresh impulse. Read: Can the Fed disrupt stock market gains, and why China’s evergrande is causing wobbles elsewhere Technical analysis Corrective pullback needs to overcome the 200-DMA hurdle, surrounding 149.75, as well as the 15.00 threshold, to convince GBP/JPY buyers.  

The USD/CHF pair remains muted in the initial Asian trading hours on Tuesday. After testing monthly highs above 0.9300 in the overnight session, USD/C

USD/CHF trades modestly higher on Tuesday in the early Asian trading hours. US 10-year benchmark Treasury yields fell sharply on concerns of potential spillover from China’s Evergrande.Pre-Fed market volatility, sour-risk sentiment pushes safer Swiss Franc higher.The USD/CHF pair remains muted in the initial Asian trading hours on Tuesday. After testing monthly highs above 0.9300 in the overnight session, USD/CHF retreated on a corrective pullback. At the time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9274, down 0.01% for the day. The US 10-year benchmark yields trade near 1.31% with 0.26% gains amid concerns about China’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande default and the risk of spreading shockwaves beyond China. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, turns mildly negative near 93.20 with 0.02% losses. Investors remain anxious ahead of the FOMC two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed’s officials are expected to signal a start to scaling down the monthly asset purchase program. It is worth noting that, S&P 500 Futures is trading at 4,357.33, down 1.70% losses. On the other hand, the Swiss Franc holds some ground on its safe-haven appeal amid reduced risk appetite. Furthermore, the recent foreign investment flows into Swiss stocks also kept Swiss currency on the higher side. Meanwhile, the Swiss government has lowered the growth forecast for the economy by 3.2% this year. As per the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) a less vigorous global recovery, supply-chain bottlenecks and tightened coronavirus measures remained the major reasons behind the pull-down in the growth projections estimates. As for now, traders wait for the Swiss Balance of Trade, US Current Account, Housing Starts and Building Permits to gain fresh trading impetus. USD/CHF additional levels
 

US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls challenge the previous day’s pullback from a monthly top around 93.22 during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the gre

DXY bears struggle to keep reins after stepping in from monthly peak.Key support keeps buyers hopeful as RSI returns from overbought region, yearly top in focus.US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls challenge the previous day’s pullback from a monthly top around 93.22 during Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the greenback gauge teases the previous resistance line from late July, now support. It’s worth noting that the overbought RSI conditions, which are now normal, previously triggered the quote’s U-turn from a one-month high. Given the key support and normal RSI, DXY bulls are likely to keep the reins with the latest swing high near 93.45 acting as an immediate target. During the quote’s upside past 93.45, the yearly peak of 93.72 and the 94.00 will be in focus. Even if the US Dollar Index bears manages to conquer the 93.20 resistance-turned-support, an ascending trend line from mid-September and 200-SMA, respectively near 93.10 and 92.75, will gain the market’s attention. Hence, DXY remains bullish given the quote’s sustained trading beyond the key technical supports. DXY: Four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

After trading lower on Monday, the AUD/NZD is pairing some of its losses, is trading at 1.0347 up 0.25% at the time of writing. The market sentiment i

AUD/NZD recovers from Monday losses, trades above 1.0350China’s real-estate Evergrande weighs on the market sentimentOn Tuesday, the RBA will release its last meeting minutes.RBNZ’s Hawksby: We had more confidence that employment was at its maximum sustainable levelAfter trading lower on Monday, the AUD/NZD is pairing some of its losses, is trading at 1.0347 up 0.25% at the time of writing. The market sentiment is in risk-off mode caused by China’s Evergrande woes and the Delta variant spread, triggering a flight towards safe-haven assets.Reserve Bank of Australia minutes to be released at 0130 GMTThe Reserve Bank of Australia will unveil its monetary policy minutes. Despite the Delta variant outbreak in the last month and stringent measures imposed by Prime Minister Morrison, the RBA kept its decision to reduce its weekly bond purchases from A$5 Billion to A$4 Billion, nevertheless extended the duration of the program until at least February of 2022. The latter was due to support the Delta outbreak ongoing in the country. In the New Zealand economic docket, the RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby hit the wires. He made comments about monetary policy that the statement showed that the bank had more confidence that employment was at its maximum sustainable level. Additionally, he said, “that monetary policy response would be required for future health lockdowns if there was more enduring impact on inflation, employment.” Read more:  RBNZ’s Hawksby: We had more confidence that employment was at its maximum sustainable level Later in the day, the NZ Credit Card Spending for August (YoY) and the NZ GDT Price Index will be released. The previous readings were 6.9% and 4%, respectively.AUD/NZD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe AUD/NZD is trading well below the daily moving averages, suggesting downward pressure. The pair is trading above the 38.2% of its latest Fibonacci retracement but beneath a downslope trendline that acts as the first resistance level, around  1.0365-70. A break above that trendline could push the AUD/NZD pair towards the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 1.0386, followed by a challenge to 1.0400. On the flip side, failure at 1.0365-70, the bears could exert downward pressure on the pair, exposing the 1.0300 level and the possibility of a retest of this year’s lows at 1.0278. The Relative Strength Index is at 42.06, aiming higher, though it remains below the 50-midline, still supporting the downward bias.KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH 

EUR/USD is flat in a quiet Asian session following a turbulent start to the week. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1728 between 1.1725

EUR/USD holds steady in Asia following Evergrande market turmoil on Monday. Eyes turn to the Fed this week for further clues on tapering. EUR/USD is flat in a quiet Asian session following a turbulent start to the week. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1728 between 1.1725 and 1.1731. Forex markets were quite contained given the scale of equity losses on the back of the Evergrande news.  EUR/USD touched made a one-month low before returning to 1.1725, flat on the day, but that hardly reflected the mood in broader financial and commodity markets. The potential collapse of one of China’s biggest property developers, Evergrande, added to growth and demand concerns.  Wall Street dropped despite news that Evergrande executives are working to salvage its business prospects. The default scenario is balanced between bad and worse outcomes for which investors woke up to and smelled the coffee on Monday morning.  What markets fear the most A messy meltdown at worst or a managed collapse is sending shivers down the backbone of financial markets. The less likely prospect of a bailout by Beijing can be hoped as a best-case scenario for financial markets. In this regard, markets are keeping a watchful eye for a deadline of an $83.5 million interest payment on one of its bonds that is due on Thursday. Overall, the company has $305 billion in liabilities. All 11 major S&P 500 sectors were lower, with economically sensitive groups like energy down the most. The S&P 500 is down heavily from its intra-day record high hit on Sept. 2 and is on track to snap a seven-month winning streak this month. The US dollar has consequently picked up a safe haven bid which dented the euro's performance.  Meanwhile, in local data, German Producer Price inflation in August rose further, +1.5% MoM (est. +0.8%m/m) to 12.0%y/y (est. 11.1% YoY). Once again energy costs (+3.3% MoM) were the main driver, along with basic goods (+1.5% MoM). However, the focus stays very much on the US this week. All eyes on the Fed US bond yields fell and the yield curve bull flattened as investors gear up for the FOMC meeting this week for any messages around taper plans. The 2-year government bond yields fell from 0.23% to 0.21%, 10-year government bond yields fell from 1.36% to 1.31%. ''We don’t expect a change to forward guidance on rates or asset purchases, but we do expect a signal that the Fed is getting closer to tapering. Powell is likely to reiterate the statement he made at Jackson Hole, namely that tapering can start later this year,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  EUR/USD technicalsEUR/USD Price Analysis: Recovery remains elusive below 1.1755 

US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 1.31% during Tuesday’s Asian session. The risk barometer dropped the most since August 13 the previous day on

US 10-year Treasury yields remain pressured after the biggest fall in multi-day.Off in China allows bears to take a breather but Fed tapering woes, geopolitics back risk-off mood.Second-tier US data may entertain traders ahead of the key Wednesday.US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 1.31% during Tuesday’s Asian session. The risk barometer dropped the most since August 13 the previous day on spillover effects of China’s Evergrande. Also favoring the bond buyers were chatters surrounding US stimulus and the Federal Reserve (Fed). With over $300 billion debt and multiple linkages to the global markets, China’s Evergrande hints at becoming another Lehman-like disruption even as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) tries hard to defend the country’s biggest real-estate player. It should be noted that the off in Beijing limits the market’s reaction, even as Hong Kong takes the burden. On a different page, the first in four-month recovery by the US NAHB Housing Market Index in September, rising 1 point to 76, renews Fed tapering concerns amid mixed data and policymakers’ previous push for monetary policy adjustments. It’s worth noting that the Fed is up for conveying the Summary of Economic Projections this week, as well as the dot-plot, to become the key weekly event. Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged for another extension to the debt limit that is up for expiry in a few days to October while US Senator Joe Manchin pushed back President Joe Biden’s $3.0 trillion stimulus discussions back to 2022. Amid these plays, global equities saw the red whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses at the latest. Given the risk-off mood, the US Dollar Index (DXY) should stay firmer around the monthly peak above 93.00, which in turn could weigh on commodities and Antipodeans like AUD/USD and NZD/USD. However, gold seems to benefit from equity rout but needs validation amid a sluggish mood. Read: Can the Fed disrupt stock market gains, and why China’s evergrande is causing wobbles elsewhere

GBP/USD takes a breather after the previous session’s heavy sell-off. The pair dropped below 1.3650 in a more than 100-pips movement. At the time of w

GBP/USD nurses the losses on Tuesday following the previous day’s rout.Price shows resilience near 1.3650, lacks conviction for strong upside movement.Momentum oscillator slips below midline turns negative.GBP/USD takes a breather after the previous session’s heavy sell-off. The pair dropped below 1.3650 in a more than 100-pips movement. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3660, up 0.03% for the day. GBP/USD daily chart After testing the high of 1.3913 on September 14, the GBP/USD pair lost momentum and continued with its existing short-term downside trend. Furthermore, the spot trades below the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which confirms the pressured movement for the pair at least in the short term. Having said that, if the price is sustained below the intraday low, it could move back to the 1.3640 horizontal support level followed by the monthly low made on August 20 at 1.3602.  The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips below the midline. This would mean that the bears would easily take out the low of 1.3572 made on July 20. Alternatively, on the reversal side the immediate resistance appears at the 1.2700 psychological level. GBP/USD bulls above the key level would be encouraged to retest the previous day high of 1.3752, and then the 1.3800 horizontal resistance level. GBP/USD additiona levels  

USD/JPY continues to trade lower in the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The pair consolidated below 109.50 as risk sentiment worsened after the Chin

USD/JPY remains depressive following the previous session’s heavy sell-off.US Dollar Index remains steady above 93.00.Dow Jones sinks more than 600 points as risk sentiment falters on Chinese property giant Evergrande.USD/JPY continues to trade lower in the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The pair consolidated below 109.50 as risk sentiment worsened after the Chinese Evergrande fallout. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 109.39 down 0.01% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck against the basket of six major currencies, remains elevated near 93.20 with 0.05% gains. Investors took a safety flight in US bonds amid a global sell-off in financial markets. The US benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell nearly 6 basis points to 1.31% as yields move inversely to bond prices. Market assessed the risk of China's second-largest property developer to expand across global markets. The Dow Jones dropped more than 600 points, the most since July and S&P 500 shed more than 75 points.  Meantime, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the failure of the debt ceiling raise could spark a historic financial crisis. The comments weighed on the greenback's performance. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen enjoyed its safe-haven appeal and attracted traders attention on Monday. The sentiment was further supported after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep its policy steady this week, but could offer a bleaker view on exports and output due to the impact of the pandemic. As for now, traders turn their attention to the US Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Current Account data to gauge the market sentiment.  

AUD/USD struggles to keep recovery moves from the monthly bottom as traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minu

AUD/USD bounces off monthly low, snaps three-day downtrend.Aussie PM Morrison dashes trade hopes from EU, Biden promotes UN membership.China’s Evergrande, Fed tapering woes weigh on sentiment despite mildly easy covid fears of late.RBA Minutes may reiterate virus-led economic challenges, could weigh on the prices.AUD/USD struggles to keep recovery moves from the monthly bottom as traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes during Tuesday’s Asian session. That said, the Aussie pair seesaws around 0.7260 while snapping a three-day downtrend with minimal daily gains by the press time. The latest rebound could have taken clues from Australia’s easing virus conditions and a pause in the S&P 500 Futures after the dismal performance of the Wall Street benchmarks. Even so, fears over fears over China’s Evergrande, the US stimulus and Fed tapering add to the sour sentiment and keep the AUD/USD sellers hopeful. Australia registered a third consecutive daily fall in the covid infections the previous day, to 1,505 per the latest official figures. Also favoring the counter-trend traders are the chatters over US debt limit extension and push for vaccinations at home. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged for another extension to the debt limit that is up for expiry in a few days to October. On the contrary, dashed hopes of early US stimulus and Aussie PM Scott Morrison’s comments dimming the hope of the deal with the European Union (EU) join US President Joe Biden’s push for partnership with the United Nations (UN) to solve the key problems weigh on the market sentiment. Above all, fears that China’s Evergrande isn’t only a curse to linked markets but will also roil the global financial world and the ripple effect will be larger amid the coronavirus-led economic woes exert downside pressure on the AUD/USD prices. Further, the US NAHB Housing Market Index ended four months of declines in September, rising 1 point to 76. The same join the mixed bag of the US statistics to amplify uncertainties over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move as policymakers were hawkish during their latest approach. Given the recently mixed sentiment challenging the AUD/USD bears, the pair traders will wait for the clear direction from RBA Minutes, while also keeping eyes on the macro. Although the RBA policymakers are likely to reiterate their cautious optimism after extending the bond purchase program with tapering, challenges to monetary policy tightening stay intact, which if uttered may weigh on the quote. Technical analysis A convergence of 20-DMA and 50-DMA, around 0.7335-40, challenges the corrective pullback from one-month-old horizontal support near 0.7220.  

The price of oil on Tuesday is up to some 0.16% between $70.39 and $70.57 after losing ground on Monday by over 2% as investors grew more risk-averse.

US oil was pressured in a risk-off start to the week. Evergrande sank the stock markets on a global scale.S Gulf output will stay offline for months due to storm damage.The price of oil on Tuesday is up to some 0.16% between $70.39 and $70.57 after losing ground on Monday by over 2% as investors grew more risk-averse. Chinese property developer Evergrande's solvency is in the balance and markets are on edge, especially the commodities complex due to the implications of a property market crash in China. ''While slowing Chinese economic growth and uncertainty around the Fed’s tapering timetable weighed on market sentiment, other developments still point to higher oil prices,'' analysts at ANZ Bank argued.  ''Rising gas and coal prices, due to the supply shortage, are gradually encouraging utilities to switch from gas and coal to fuel oil. Sweden has started up oil-fired power plants. Oil demand will get a fresh boost from the US’s announcement that the travel ban would be lifted for foreign travellers who are fully vaccinated from November. This could see jet fuel demand recovering strongly towards the end of this year,'' the analysts said.  Meanwhile, the US dollar has picked up a safe haven bid as the global stock market rout sends flows into the greenback which means oil gets more expensive for non-dollar markets. This, in turn, has weighed on the price of oil in a bearish move backed by the stock market itself. Stock market rout weighs on oil Wall Street collapsed on Monday as fear of contagion from a potential collapse of China's Evergrande prompted a broad sell-off and sent investors fleeing equities for safety. All 11 major S&P 500 sectors were lower, with economically sensitive groups like energy down the most. The S&P 500 is down heavily from its intra-day record high hit on Sept. 2 and is on track to snap a seven-month winning streak this month. Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost620.22 points, or 1.79%, to 33,964.66. The S&P 500 dropped 75.28 points, or 1.70%, to 4,357.71. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 325.95 points, or 2.17%, to 14,718.02.US Stocks Forecast: A bad situation just got worse, but bullish prospects on the horizonSo not a good day on Wall Street, however, oil drew some support from signs that some US Gulf output will stay offline for months due to storm damage.  As of Friday producing companies had just 23% of crude production offline or 422,078 barrels per day. ''US oil producers are struggling to restore production,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said. ''Royal Dutch Shell said oil production from the Mars and Ursa platforms in the Gulf of Mexico will be offline until the end of 2021. This would reduce supply by nearly 300,000 barrels, according to Bloomberg calculations.''  

Silver (XAG/USD) bears take a breather around $22.30, after refreshing the yearly low at the week’s start. That said, the bright metal struggles to ex

Silver remains pressured around yearly low, steadies after three-day downtrend.Six-month-old descending trend line, horizontal area from September 2020 challenge bears.Oversold RSI conditions hint at corrective pullback towards latest August lows.Silver (XAG/USD) bears take a breather around $22.30, after refreshing the yearly low at the week’s start. That said, the bright metal struggles to extend the three-day downtrend near the multi-day bottom amid oversold RSI conditions. Even so, lows marked on August 20 near $22.87 and the $23.00 threshold challenge the immediate recovery moves. Following that, March low and September peak, respectively around $23.80 and $24.85, will be on the silver bull’s radar ahead of confronting the key 200-DMA level near $25.85. On the flip side, the $22.00 and November 2020 bottom surrounding $21.90 can entertain XAG/USD bears ahead of directing them to the $21.65-60 support confluence including a downward sloping trend line from March and September 2020 low. To sum up, silver prices may recovery as sellers seem tired. However, bulls have a long way before retaking controls. Silver: Daily chart Trend: Corrective pullback expected  

USD/CAD snaps three-day uptrend, easing from the monthly peak to 1.2813 during the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The loonie pair jumped to the hig

USD/CAD keeps pullback from monthly top, range-bound of late.Canadian election polls flash mixed signals, oil stays pressured after three-day downtrend.China’s Evergrande, Fed taper tantrums and virus woes challenge sellers.USD/CAD snaps three-day uptrend, easing from the monthly peak to 1.2813 during the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The loonie pair jumped to the highest in a month the previous day as broad risk-off mood underpinned the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. On the same line were concerns relating t to Canada’s Federal Elections and downbeat prices of Ontario’s main export, namely oil. US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to the highest since August 23 as fears over China’s Evergrande and the coronavirus-led challenges to the economic recovery backed the rush to risk-safety. Also, doubts over the US stimulus and Fed tapering concerns add to the sour sentiment and favored the greenback. China’s biggest real estate player Evergrande is up for default, with estimated dues of above $300 billion. The ripple effect was severe for stocks and the US Treasury yields also consolidated some of the last week’s gains in reaction, even as an off in China and Japan challenged bond traders. Elsewhere, the US NAHB Housing Market Index ended four months of declines in September, rising 1 point to 76. The same join the mixed bag of the US statistics to amplify uncertainties over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move as policymakers were hawkish during their latest approach. It should be noted that chatters that a senior US Senator Joe Manchin pushed back President Joe Biden’s $3.0 trillion stimulus discussions back to 2022 joined doubts over the debt limit extension to exert additional downside pressure on the risk appetite. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged for another extension to the limits. At home, PM Justin Trudeau struggles for the dreamed majority, per the latest polls, as Canadian citizens vote during the Federal Elections. “Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may cling to power in Monday's election, but he is likely to lose his bid for a parliamentary majority after a tough campaign that dashed his ruling Liberals' hopes for a convincing win,” said Reuters. Moving on, early results of the Canadian election and risk catalysts are likely to remain as the key while second-tier housing data from the US may also entertain the USD/CAD traders. Technical analysis Sustained trading above a two-month-old horizontal resistance around 1.2810 becomes necessary for the USD/CAD bulls to keep reins. Otherwise, overbought RSI hints at a pullback towards the early month top surrounding 1.2760.  

EUR/USD holds onto the previous day’s defensive performance around a monthly low during the sluggish start to Tuesday’s Asian session. That said, the

EUR/USD keeps bounce off monthly low, sidelined of late.Bearish MACD, sustained trading below the key supports favor bears.Six-week-old horizontal support holds the key to yearly low.EUR/USD holds onto the previous day’s defensive performance around a monthly low during the sluggish start to Tuesday’s Asian session. That said, the major currency pair seesaws around 1.1730 by the press time. Although six-week-old horizontal support triggered the pair’s corrective rebound on Monday, two-month-long support, now resistance, as well as 50-DMA, challenges recover moves amid bearish MACD signals. Hence, any rebound becomes less important unless crossing the immediate horizontal hurdle near 1.1755, followed by the 50-DMA level surrounding 1.1795 and the 1.1800 threshold. Even if the EUR/USD prices cross the 1.1800 mark, the mid-August top near 1.1805 and a descending resistance line from late June, around 1.1895 will question the bulls. Alternatively, a clear downside break of the 1.1700 support will direct EUR/USD bears towards the yearly low near 1.1665. Following that, November 2020 bottom around 1.1600 will be a crucial level to watch. Overall, EUR/USD is in a slow grind towards the yearly low but intermediate bounces can’t be ruled out. EUR/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The euro continues its free-fall against the Japanese yen, as the EUR/JPY is sliding for the sixth straight day, is down 0.08%, trading at 128.29. On

EUR/JPY has been falling for six days in a row.EUR/JPY prints a fresh monthly low at 128.14.A death-cross pattern in the daily chart threatens to push the price beneath 127.92, with a target of 125.09.The euro continues its free-fall against the Japanese yen, as the EUR/JPY is sliding for the sixth straight day, is down 0.08%, trading at 128.29. On Monday, the cross-currency printed a fresh monthly low at 128.14 but bounced modestly closing at 128.39, for a 0.40% loss.EUR/JPY daily chartThe EUR/JPY pair is trading at 128.24 near a rising trendline from the 2021 low around January, passing through the August lows acting as support. Nevertheless, as the EUR/JPY spot price is trading below its daily moving averages, it suggests downward pressure. Adding to this, the 50-day moving average (DMA) is crossing below the 200-DMA, resulting in a death-cross pattern, that confirms the switch from an uptrend to a downtrend.  For the bears to push the prices lower, they will need a daily close beneath that trendline, around 128.20. In case of a daily close beneath, it would open the door for further losses. The first support level would be the August 19 low at 127.92. A breach of that level could expose the 2021 low at 125.08. On the other hand, failure to break 128.20 could consolidate the cross-currency within the 128.20-128.52 range. A break above the latter could open the door for further gains, with 128.95-129.00 as the first supply zone. Once the latter is broken, the next resistance would be the confluence of the 50 and the 200-day moving average, around 129.54-56. The Relative Strength Index is at 32.51, slightly flat, however, as it remains beneath the 50-midline, maintains the bearish bias.

NZD/USD seesaws around 0.7030, grind south after refreshing the monthly low the previous day. In doing so, the kiwi pair recently defends the 0.7000 t

NZD/USD probes bears after a sluggish start to the week, dribbles near the monthly low.RBNZ’s Hawksby sounds cautiously optimistic, NZ Westpac Consumer Survey drops for Q3.Fears from China’s distressed Evergrande, Fed tapering and virus cases outside Auckland weigh on Antipodeans.Beijing’s return from holidays, US Housing data act as additional catalysts.NZD/USD seesaws around 0.7030, grind south after refreshing the monthly low the previous day. In doing so, the kiwi pair recently defends the 0.7000 threshold as the recent comments by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policymaker conquers sour sentiment witnessed since the week’s start. RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby spoke Tuesday morning in Asia entitled “A least regrets approach to uncertainty”. Like the title of the speech, the policymaker did convey the central bank’s least regret over the latest decisions while also mentioning, “August monetary policy statement noted we had more confidence that employment was at its maximum sustainable level.” Read: RBNZ’s Hawksby: We had more confidence that employment was at its maximum sustainable level Even so, risk-off mood weighs on the Antipodeans and the NZD/USD pair isn’t an exception. The main catalyst is the fears emanating from China as the country’s biggest real estate player Evergrande is up for default, with estimated dues of above $300 billion. The ripple effect has been severe for stocks and the US Treasury yields also consolidated some of the last week’s gains. In addition to Evergrande's woes, Fed tapering concerns, doubts over the US stimulus and challenges over the economic recovery due to the coronavirus also weighed down the NZD/USD prices. Despite recently mixed data, Fed policymakers were hawkish during their latest approach while the headlines figures weren’t too dismal and hence underpin the tapering tantrum. Further, chatters that a senior US Senator Joe Manchin pushed back President Joe Biden’s $3.0 trillion stimulus discussions back to 2022 joined doubts over the debt limit extension to exert additional downside pressure on the risk appetite. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged for another extension to the limits. Elsewhere, New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern eased Auckland’s alert level to L3 from L4 but extended virus-led restrictions for at least two weeks, not one. Also, cases outside Auckland and abroad add challenges for the market sentiment and the NZD/USD prices. Talking about economics, Westpac Consumer Survey results dropped below 107.1 previous readouts to 102.7 for the third quarter (Q3). On the other hand, the US NAHB Housing Market Index ended four months of declines in September, rising 1 point to 76. Moving on, NZD/USD traders will pay close attention to China’s return and reaction to the Evergrande saga. Also likely to challenge the pair is the Fed tapering concerns and COVID-19 fears. RBA Minutes and New Zealand Credit Card Spending for August act as extra catalysts to watch. Technical analysis 50-DMA challenges NZD/USD bears around 0.7010 but bulls are less likely to return below 100-DMA, near 0.7075.  

RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby crossed wires, via Reuters, during early Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) senior official

RBNZ Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby crossed wires, via Reuters, during early Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) senior official conveyed the RBNZ confidence over employment and inflation during the latest monetary policy meeting while speaking on the title “A least regrets approach to uncertainty” Key quotes Early discovery of vaccines against covid-19 has supported a stronger-than-expected recovery in the global economy. August monetary policy statement noted we had more confidence that employment was at its maximum sustainable level. Demand for our goods exports has fared much better than during previous global downturns. Also benefited from a robust recovery in the chinese economy, our largest trading partner. Monetary and government spending policies have supported a strong recovery in spending. More to come…

New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey declined to 102.7 in 3Q from previous 107.1

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