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    Tuesday, June 18, 2019

    Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, points out that two weeks ago, the market bought EUR/USD as Fed officials hinted rate cuts cou

    Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, points out that two weeks ago, the market bought EUR/USD as Fed officials hinted rate cuts could be coming and the ECB revealed a reluctance to follow the Fed down the road of monetary easing.Key Quotes“Today, Draghi will get a second chance to talk down the EUR when he speaks at Sintra. He will have to come up big, i.e. signal rate cuts and/or that QE is coming, to convince the market to sell EUR/USD before the Fed likely makes a dovish shift tomorrow. It is crunch time for the ECB and the Fed and we stick to our call for EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 in 3M as the Fed is set to ‘out-ease’ the ECB.”

    Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (-2.5%) in April: Actual (-4%)

    Austria HICP (YoY) unchanged at 1.7% in May

    Austria HICP (MoM) down to 0% in May from previous 0.3%

    In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has eroded the 2019 uptrend at 1.2570 and looks set for further losses to the 1.2444 Dece

    In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has eroded the 2019 uptrend at 1.2570 and looks set for further losses to the 1.2444 December 2018 low. Key Quotes “The market now stays directly offered below the 7th June high at 1.2763. It will need to regain the February low at 1.2772 on a closing basis in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure and avert further losses to the 1.2444 December 2018 low. This is the last defence for 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from 2016.” “Above the 200 day moving average at 1.2937. This would target the 1.3185/97 April and May highs.”

    Matthew Hassan, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the minutes of the June RBA Board meeting show the decision to cut the cash rate by 25bp at that mee

    Matthew Hassan, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the minutes of the June RBA Board meeting show the decision to cut the cash rate by 25bp at that meeting was driven by a revised assessment of spare capacity in the labour market and that the Board expects to ease policy further.Key Quotes“We continue to expect a further 25bp rate cut in August and a final 25bp cut in November.” “The minutes are clear on the prospect of further cuts, noting in the concluding paragraph that “… it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead”. In the lexicon of RBA statements, “period ahead” signals that policy is ‘live’ in coming meetings but stops short of indicating an imminent move at the next meeting.” “Overall, the minutes confirm more easing is on the way. Board members appear very much aligned to the Governor’s views, particularly around the labour market. That said, the ‘tone’ is not urgent in the sense that growth outlook still does not seem to be viewed as that challenging and low inflation is not a driving force behind the easing.” “We continue to see the next 25bp rate cut coming in August and a final 25bp cut in November.”

    The Iranian President Rouhani is out on the wires now, via Reuters, offering some conciliatory comments amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions,

    The Iranian President Rouhani is out on the wires now, via Reuters, offering some conciliatory comments amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions, in the face of the recent attacks on oil tankers. Rouhani said that Iran will not wage war against any nation. Earlier today, China’s State Councillor Wang urged all sides to ease Gulf region tension.

    The AUD/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below mid-0.6800s, or 5-1/2

    The RBA minutes showed consensus over further monetary easing and weighed on the Aussie.A subdued USD demand extended some support and helped limit deeper losses, at least for now.Investors now look forward to the US housing market data for some short-term trading impetus.The AUD/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below mid-0.6800s, or 5-1/2 month lows. The pair extended its recent pullback from levels beyond the key 0.70 psychological mark and remained under some selling pressure for the fifth consecutive session, also marking its sixth day of a negative move in the previous seven. Tuesday's slide during the Asian session came after minutes of the latest RBA monetary policy meeting held on June 4 showed policymakers saying that further monetary easing was more likely in the coming month. The explicit signal for yet another interest rate cut, coupled with fears of a further escalation in the US-China trade tensions further dented the already weaker sentiment surrounding the China-proxy Australian Dollar. The bearish pressure now seems to have receded, at least for the time being, amid a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Dollar, which was slightly undermined by Monday's dismal Empire State Manufacturing Index. In fact, manufacturing activity in the New York region posted a record drop in June and fell into contraction territory for the first time in more than two years, also marking its weakest level since October 2016. Investors might also be reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of the next big event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update on Wednesday, which might further collaborate towards helping limit deeper losses.  Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of housing market data - housing starts and building permits, which will be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

    The bid tone surrounding the shared currency remains well and sound so far this week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs in the boun

    EUR/USD moves to the 1.1235/40 band, or daily highs.ECB Draghi speaks at the Sintra Forum.German, EMU ZEW survey next on the docket in Euroland.The bid tone surrounding the shared currency remains well and sound so far this week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs in the boundaries of 1.1240.EUR/USD now looks to Draghi, dataSpot is extending the optimism in the first half of the week, putting further distance from Monday’s lows in the 1.1200 neighbourhood amidst some selling pressure around the buck. In the meantime, US-China trade tensions and rumours on potential rate cut by the Fed in the near term continue to be the exclusive drivers of the markets’ sentiment for the time being. Later in the day, President M.Draghi will speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra (Portugal), while the publication of the ZEW survey in Germany and Euroland should also keep the attention on the European currency.What to look for around EURThe broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the US-China trade spat. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini. EUR, however, is expected to remain under scrutiny amidst the renewed dovish stance from the ECB and the ongoing slowdown in the region.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.11% at 1.1230 and a break above 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1356 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the other hand, initial support aligns at 1.1202 (low Jun.14) seconded by 1.1200 (low Jun.6) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30).

    The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that “we will conduct policy to boost inflation and wages”. Addi

    The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that “we will conduct policy to boost inflation and wages”. Additional Comments: We need to continue easing persistently.

    The Research Team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) offers EUR/USD outlook amid bullish technical setup and positioning model. Key Quotes: "Cumu

    The Research Team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) offers EUR/USD outlook amid bullish technical setup and positioning model. Key Quotes: "Cumulative EUR/USD price action had reset to flat, offsetting depreciation of the last 3 months. The broader USD trend has faltered and rolled over, with the MAA breadth reverting to just +2 after briefly capping at +9 in April, consistent with USD selling we saw in our proprietary flows. The short-dated SDR flows in EUR/USD leaned more toward calls last week on the back of a robust pickup in volumes. Our positioning model is showing a rare fledgling EUR uptrend forming with rising MAA, supported by bullish Up/Down vol and Residual Skew.  A wedge bottom pattern is confirmed and targets 1.1461, 1.1545, 1.1660 and possibly 1.1830. We favor being long or buying a dip into the mid-1.12s and, while 1.11 holds, looking for a rally to aforementioned targets. A base near 1.11 and breakouts above the 50d SMA, trend line, prior peaks, 100d SMA and April high suggest an uptrend is underway." 

    According to analysts at Danske Bank, focus today will be on the ECB Forum at Sintra, where ECB President Mario Draghi will give an introductory speec

    According to analysts at Danske Bank, focus today will be on the ECB Forum at Sintra, where ECB President Mario Draghi will give an introductory speech at 10.00 CEST and also participate in a panel with the Bank of England's Mark Carney and former Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer at 16.00 CEST.Key Quotes“We expect Draghi to strike a dovish tone at the conference.” “On the data front, we have final Euro inflation for May and the German ZEW sentiment index for June. In the US, data on building permits and housing starts are due to be released. Housing should perform well following the sharp decline in mortgage rates and high consumer confidence.” “The Nordics have been resilient in general in the face of recent global weakness, with exports still supporting growth, but domestically, the Nordics are moving in different directions. We see very little domestic demand growth in Sweden and it is also slowing markedly in Finland. Norway, on the other hand, is supported by oil investments. The Danish economy is slowly decelerating with growth still above trend.”

    The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to hog the limelight in a data-busy European session ahead. Draghi is due to deliv

    The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to hog the limelight in a data-busy European session ahead. Draghi is due to deliver an introductory speech at 0800 GMT on the second day of the ECB Forum on Central banking in Sintra, Portugal. He is scheduled to speak for about 30 minutes and hence, he could throw some light on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook, in the face of faltering economic growth and escalating trade war. Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, noted: With ECB President Mario Draghi leaving at the end of October, and the economy in Europe floundering, today’s speech in Sintra, Portugal at the ECB central bank forum, could offer further clues as to how much further the ECB can look at monetary easing, over and above the September TLTRO program.”  “With inflation once again sliding back close to 1% in May, markets are slowly coming to the conclusion that the ECB is operating at the limits of what it can actually do by way of conventional monetary policy,” Michael added. It's worth noting that during his speech on the first day of the Sintra Forum on Monday, Draghi did not touch upon the topic of monetary policy, although he did speak about bettering the Eurozone. Keynotes Eurozone: German ZEW and ECB’s Sintra conference in focus - TDS EUR/USD flirts with 50-hour MA ahead of German ZEW survey, Draghi's speech EUR/JPY technical analysis: 23.6% Fibo. offers nearest support before 121.25/30, 120.78 About Draghi’s speech As part of his job in the Governing Council, he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

    In light of advanced data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second day in a row, now by

    In light of advanced data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second day in a row, now by just 335 contracts. In the same direction, volume shrunk by around 81.3K contracts, printing the third drop in a row.USD/JPY extra dips remain on the cardsUSD/JPY is losing some ground after a positive start of the week amidst shrinking open interest and volume. That said, while the continuation of the sideline theme looks likely in the short-term horizon, occasional drops should not be discarded for the time being.

    According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD is attempting to recover from approximately 1.1200 and focus remains on the 200 week ma at 1

    According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD is attempting to recover from approximately 1.1200 and focus remains on the 200 week ma at 1.1348 and the 200 day ma at 1.1356.Key Quotes“Dips lower will find initial support at 1.1200 and will ideally be contained by 1.1175. To really ignite upside interest, we suspect a close above 1.1358 is needed to target initially the 1.1570 2019 high. We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point.” “Support at 1.1110/06 is regarded as the break down point to the 2018-2019 support line at 1.1027 and the 1.0814 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.”

    Despite trading near yearly lows, a 4-month old descending support-line limits the GBP/USD pair’s immediate declines during early Tuesday.

    Descending trend-line from mid-February question bears targeting December bottom and YTD lows amid oversold RSI.21-DMA acts as immediate resistance to watch during the pullback.Despite trading near yearly lows, a 4-month old descending support-line limits the GBP/USD pair’s immediate declines as it trades near 1.2535 ahead of the UK open on Tuesday. In addition to a downward sloping trend-line from mid-February, at 1.2525, oversold levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) also signal brighter chances of its pullback to 1.2580 and then to 1.2660 resistances. Further, the break of 1.2660 enables the pair’s rally to 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level near 1.2660 and the month’s high surrounding 1.2765. Given the bears dominate price sentiment and drag the quote under 1.2525 on a daily closing basis, December 2018 low near 1.2477 and the current year bottom around 1.2438 could flash on their radars.GBP/USD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected 

    In view of analysts at TD Securities, today's German ZEW report will give us some of the first survey data for the month of June, and a better idea of

    In view of analysts at TD Securities, today's German ZEW report will give us some of the first survey data for the month of June, and a better idea of how much global trade tensions are weighing on investor sentiment.Key Quotes“With the détente in the US-EU auto tariff spat having been announced shortly after the last ZEW report was published, that should help to ease local worries to some extent. Markets are looking for the expectations component to worsen from -2.1 to -5.8 in June, but we see upside risks and look for a smaller fall to -3.0 instead. For the current assessment, we look for a decline from 8.2 to 7.0 (mkt: 6.1).” “The first full day of the ECB's Sintra conference also takes place, with President Draghi due to speak at 9am, Vice President de Guindos at 9:30, Chief Economist Lane at 11:30am, and a discussion panel featuring Draghi, Carney, and Yellen at 3pm (all times BST).”

    CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted open interest increased for the fourth straight session on Monday, this time by just above 1K con

    CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted open interest increased for the fourth straight session on Monday, this time by just above 1K contracts. On the other hand, volume shrunk for the third day in a row, now by around 43.5K contracts.GBP/USD keeps looking to 1.2480Cable remains well on the downside so far this week. Yesterday’s negative price action came in tandem with rising open interest, which should keep on the table a potential drop to December 2018 lows in the 1.2480 region. The important drop in volume, however, could also spark some consolidation around current levels.

    Reuters reports the recent comments by the Chinese State Councillor and a senior diplomat Wang Yi, as he urges all sides (the US and Iran) to exercise

    Reuters reports the recent comments by the Chinese State Councillor and a senior diplomat Wang Yi, as he urges all sides (the US and Iran) to exercise restraint and ease tension in the Gulf region. Wang noted that China hoped Iran would not “rashly” abandon the 2015 nuclear deal.

    FX option expiries for June 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1150 562m 1.1200 1.6bn 1.1240 1.3b

    FX option expiries for June 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1150 562m 1.1200 1.6bn  1.1240 1.3bn  1.1250 515m  1.1300 659m  1.1350 989m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2450 277m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.00 530m 108.61 392m  108.65 450m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3405 556m 

    Despite taking U-turn from 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA), 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of early May to June downpour limits the EUR/JPY pair’s latest drop.

    23.6% of Fibonacci retracement limits immediate downside.4H 100MA caps nearby advances.Despite taking U-turn from 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA), 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its early May to June downpour limits the EUR/JPY pair’s immediate declines as it takes the rounds of 121.66 while heading into the European open on Tuesday. Should sellers refrain from respecting 121.60 support, an area comprising June 06 low around 121.25/30 and the current year low of 120.78 may gain their attention. Meanwhile, an uptick beyond 4H 100MA level of 122.07 can push buyers towards 4H 200MA level of 122.60. In a case where prices keep rallying past-122.60, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 123.00 and last week's top close to 123.20 can gain come back on the chart.EUR/JPY 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected 

    Open interest in EUR futures markets shrunk by nearly 1.3K contracts on Monday, clinching the second consecutive decline according to preliminary data

    Open interest in EUR futures markets shrunk by nearly 1.3K contracts on Monday, clinching the second consecutive decline according to preliminary data from CME Group. Volume, in the same line, went down for yet another session, this time by around 215.1K contracts.EUR/USD upside seen as correctiveFollowing recent lows in the 1.1200 neighbourhood, EUR/USD managed to attract some attention and stage a moderate rebound. However, gains should be short-lived on the back of declining open interest and volume, prompting spot to re-shift its focus to the downside in the near term.

    Danske Bank analysts point out that for the Japanese economy, demand has been slowing and a record fiscal budget will keep the economy afloat in 2019,

    Danske Bank analysts point out that for the Japanese economy, demand has been slowing and a record fiscal budget will keep the economy afloat in 2019, along with hoarding effects in the run-up to the VAT hike in October.Key Quotes“From 2020 onwards, the economy will have to find support abroad to keep growing. We expect GDP growth of 1.0% in 2019 and 0.5% in 2020 and 2021.” “With a shrinking population, exports are key to growth, even if the Japanese economy is quite closed. A rebound in global growth therefore remains paramount to the outlook.” “The VAT hike poses a risk to domestic demand, although the impact should be much smaller than after previous tax hikes. Future trade negotiations between the US and Japan could also cause some turbulence.” “The inflation outlook still looks modest and we expect the Bank of Japan to remain on hold through 2021.”

    According to analysts at TD Securities, while the RBA's forecasts in the June statement are the same as those in the May statement (GDP 2.75% over 201

    According to analysts at TD Securities, while the RBA's forecasts in the June statement are the same as those in the May statement (GDP 2.75% over 2019/20, inflation 1.75% over 2019, unemployment around 5% in 19/20), today's minutes suggest the risks on inflation are asymmetric and skewed to the downside.Key Quotes“While the RBA indicates "Members recognised that Australia's flexible inflation targeting framework did not require inflation to be within the target range at all times" (i.e. not locking itself into cutting), it does appear as though a sub 1% cash rate is looking more likely after Luci Ellis' speech last week, indicating NAIRU is 4.5%, not 5.5% as previously assumed.” “Head of Financial Stability at the RBA, Jonathan Kearns delivered a speech to a property summit in Canberra. He highlighted that although mortgage arrears have climbed back to 2010 levels, arrears are well below the early 1990 recession levels and below other developed nations. Arrears 'could continue to edge higher for a bit longer', but were not seen as posing a risk to the financial system assuming strong lending standards and unemployment remains low.”  

    Cautious optimism coupled with broad-based US dollar weakness emerged the main theme in Asia this Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its two

    Cautious optimism coupled with broad-based US dollar weakness emerged the main theme in Asia this Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its two-day monetary policy review meeting later today, with the outcome likely to be announced on Wednesday. Amongst the G10 currencies, the Yen was the top performer, with the USD/JPY pair down 0.25% to 108.25 levels amid falling Japanese stocks, Treasury yields and broad USD weakness. On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair wilted to fresh 5-month lows near 0.6830 region after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June monetary policy meeting’s minutes suggested that further rate cuts are more likely in the months ahead. The NZD/USD bounce stalled just ahead of the 0.65 handle, as traders await the key fundamentals from New Zealand for fresh direction. Meanwhile, the Cable caught a fresh selling wave and refreshed 5-month lows at 1.2514 on the reports that the UK Finance Minster Hammond is set to resign. The Euro, on the other hand, extended the corrective bounce towards 1.1250 against the greenback. On the commodities space, Gold prices on Comex traded mildly bid near 1245 levels, having benefitted from geopolitical tensions, weaker US rates and pre-Fed caution trading. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks were sidelined amid a lack of fresh catalysts and ahead of the US weekly crude supply reports.Main Topics in AsiaMexico’s Obrador: Could win trade war with US but that would be a ‘Pyrrhic’ victory it does not seek US Official: US preparing to send additional troops to Middle East in response to threat from Iran – Reuters US Defense Secretary Shanahan: The US does not seek conflict with Iran China cuts treasury holdings to two-year low amid trade war – Bloomberg Gold technical analysis: Summer 2016 highs in the 1370s in sight WTI remains defensive around $51.80 despite geopolitical tensions RBA minutes: Further monetary policy easing likely ahead China home prices ticked +0.7% higher in May BOJ's Kuroda: Global economic uncertainty is high GBP/USD hits fresh 5-month lows as UK FinMin Hammond ‘prepared to resign’ Australian Treasurer Frydenberg: Will introduce the tax package in the first week of parliament AUD Bearish: Dalian iron ore falls for second straight session over demand concerns Asian stocks ex-Nikkei report modest gains ahead of Fed meeting Fitch lowers India's growth forecast to 6.6% for FY 2019-20, INR better bidKey Focus AheadWe have a fairly busy EUR calendar ahead, with plenty of event risks from the Euroland, including the macro data and the European Central Bank (ECB) speak at Sintra conference. Markets look forward to the speeches by the ECB President Mario Draghi and Vice-President Luis De Guindos, scheduled at 0800 GMT and 0830 GMT respectively, for fresh hints on the monetary policy and economic outlook. At 0900 GMT, a flurry of economic releases are slated for release, viz., the German ZEW Survey, Eurozone Trade Balance, final Consumer Price Index (CPI) and ZEW survey. From the UK docket, there is nothing of note and hence, the uncertainty around the UK political climate will continue to drive the GBP moves. Across the pond, we see the US Housing Starts and Building Permits data dropping in at 1230 GMT alongside the release of the Canadian Manufacturing Sales that are expected to a smaller increase for April. Later at 1400 GMT, the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is due to speak alongside his ECB counterpart Draghi and ECB policymaker Lane. Also, in focus remain New Zealand’s (NZ) fortnightly GDT Price Index, due on the cards around 1400 GMT. Towards NY close, the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude stockpiles data will be closely followed (at 2030 GMT) for fresh direction on the US oil prices. EUR/USD flirts with 50-hour MA ahead of German ZEW survey, Draghi's speech EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German data releases. ECB's Draghi has little room to sound hawkish.  GBP/USD: Sellers dominate ahead of Carney’s speech, Conservative voting Bears continue to hold the reins of GBP/USD amid political pessimism as the pair trades near 1.2514, the fresh five-month low, before the second round of voting for the Tory leadership and Carney’s speech. Gold: Summer 2016 highs in the 1370s in sight For gold bulls, the Jan and April highs came in around 1365 which guards the summer 2016 highs in the 1370s ahead of the Sep 2013 highs in the 1435s. Dovish FOMC to focus on falling inflation expectations – Morgan Stanley Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their expectations on Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT.  

    The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is giving away part of its recent gains and recedes to the 97.40 region on Tuesday. US Dollar In

    DXY moves lower following recent tops around 97.50.Yields of the US 10-year note drop to the 2.08% area.Building Permits, Housing Starts next of relevance.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is giving away part of its recent gains and recedes to the 97.40 region on Tuesday.US Dollar Index looks to dataThe index is losing ground for the first time since last Wednesday following disappointing results from the US calendar at the beginning of the week and unabated speculations of probable rate cuts by the Fed in the next months. It is worth recalling that the key Empire State Index dropped to the lowest level since October 2016 at -8.6, while the NAHB index also came in on the weak side yesterday. In the meantime, cautiousness among investors is expected to keep growing ahead of the critical FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where all the attention will be on the Committee’s views on the potential shift of the monetary stance. Later in the day, Housing Starts and Building Permits will be the only publications of note in the docket.What to look for around USDMarkets participants continue to price in the likelihood of rate cuts by the Fed in the next months and this is somehow limiting upside potential in the index. While an ‘insurance cut’ looks likely sooner than later according to market chatter, the upcoming FOMC meeting should shed more light on to the issue and is expected to give further details on the impact of trade tensions on the US economy. However, and in spite of some disappointing results in US fundamentals as of late, the labour market remains strong, wage growth keep pushing higher and the overall economy looks healthy - specially when we consider the weakness in overseas economies – all begging the question whether current speculations of rate cuts are not overdone.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.12% at 97.41 and a breakdown of 96.46 (low Jun.7) would open the door for 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28). On the flip side, the next hurdle emerges at 97.60 (high Jun.17) seconded by 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 27).

    Pre-established risk-off moves gained additional support from downbeat comments by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and sluggish housing data.

    Doubts over global growth amid trade wars/geopolitical challenges grab market attention ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC.Comments from global central bankers and second-tier data may direct intermediate moves.Pre-established risk-off moves gained additional support from downbeat comments by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and sluggish housing data from Australia/China during early Tuesday. As a result, Gold prices rise to $1341.90 ahead of the European session. Not only fewer chances of the US-China trade deal at the upcoming G20 but the increasing tussle between the US and Iran also carried the risk-aversion forward at the day’s start. The US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross recently turned down chances of any breakthrough from the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart at the sidelines of G20. Elsewhere, the US added 1,000 troops to its Middle East forces amid expectations of Iran taking steps to retaliate against recent allegation over Oman attacks. The global benchmark for risk sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yield holds the latest losses to 2.086% by the press time. Moving on, comments from the global policymakers at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum in Sintra will be closely analyzed for fresh impulse ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC. Adding to the watching could be housing market numbers from the US and political noises surrounding the UK, trade, and geopolitics.Technical AnalysisWhile year to date high surrounding $1358 holds the gate for the bullion’s rally towards early-2018 tops near $1366, its further upside might not refrain from calling 2016 high of $1375.27 back on the chart. Though, metal’s decline below March month high of $1327.80 can trigger fresh selling pressure targeting $1310 and $1300 round-figure.

    WTI oil is trading steady near $51.90, having dropped 1.7% on Monday on global growth concerns and forecasts by the US energy department that shale oi

    WTI oil is stuck in a descending triangle on the hourly chart. A triangle breakout would open the doors to $54.80 (June 10 high). WTI oil is trading steady near $51.90, having dropped 1.7% on Monday on global growth concerns and forecasts by the US energy department that shale oil output could reach a record in July. The outlook remains bearish with a series of bearish lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart and 5- and 10-day moving averages (MA) trending south.  However, a corrective rally to $54.80 (June 10 high) could be seen if the price breaks above $52.50 today, confirming a descending triangle breakout on the hourly chart. A daily close above $54.80 would confirm a double bottom breakout.  A triangle breakdown, however, would shift risk in favor of a retest of recent lows near $50.70.  Hourly chartTrend: Bullish above $54.80Pivot levels 

    Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, points out that the New Zealand households remain downbeat about the economic backdrop as the latest Wes

    Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, points out that the New Zealand households remain downbeat about the economic backdrop as the latest Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey fell 0.3 points in June to a level of 103.5, leaving confidence well below average levels.Key Quotes“Households remain downbeat about the economic outlook, with consumer confidence nudging down again in the June quarter.” “Households continue to highlight concerns about their personal financial situation, and this is weighing on spending appetites.” “This provides a further indication that the New Zealand economy is slowing.”

    Bank Indonesia is expected to keep the interest rates steady at a policy review this Thursday, but may begin easing cycle later this year, a Reuters p

    Bank Indonesia is expected to keep the interest rates steady at a policy review this Thursday, but may begin easing cycle later this year, a Reuters poll showed.  19 of 22 analysts polled predicted Bank Indonesia (BI) will hold the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 6.0%, where it has been since November. The remaining three forecasted a 25 basis point rate cut.  USD/IDR is currently trading at 14,330, having defended 14,220 over the last eight days. The pair, however, has produced lower highs over the last four weeks and the bearish setup would be invalidated only above Jan. 7's high of 14,382. Key points (Source: Reuters) All eight respondents who gave a view on the year-end benchmark expect at least one rate cut in 2019. Four predicted the rate would end the year 25 bps below its current level, three saw it 50 bps lower, and one saw the rate 75 bps lower.
     

    According to David Plank, head of Australian economics, the minutes from the June RBA Board meeting send a very clear signal about future policy steps

    According to David Plank, head of Australian economics, the minutes from the June RBA Board meeting send a very clear signal about future policy steps, with the concluding paragraph saying that:“Given the amount of spare capacity in the labour market and the economy more broadly, members agreed that it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead.”Key Quotes“Such an explicit signal about the likelihood of another cut in the minutes of the meeting where rates were moved is unusual. The minutes from the meetings in February 2015 and May 2016, in each case being the meeting where the first of two cuts took place, did not provide any such clarity about the next move. So we clearly need to take note of this unusually strong signal.” “Since the June meeting we’ve had the employment report for May. While employment growth was exceptionally strong for the month, there was no improvement in unemployment or underemployment. The continuation of significant slack in the labour market seems likely to persist for some time. The signal from the Board minutes is that the RBA wants to get policy to a more stimulatory level quite quickly to.” “But there are long lags between policy moves and transmission to the economic data. We struggle with interpreting the minutes as indicating the RBA intends to ease at every meeting until it sees the labour market turn around.” “We look to the Governor’s speech on Thursday to clarify the near-term policy outlook. In particular, whether we need to bring forward our expectation of the next rate cut to July from our current expectation of August.”  

    Simon Murray, analyst at Westpac, notes that the Westpac–Australian Chamber Actual Composite index declined to 61.5 in June from 61.8 in March. Key Qu

    Simon Murray, analyst at Westpac, notes that the Westpac–Australian Chamber Actual Composite index declined to 61.5 in June from 61.8 in March.Key Quotes“The Composite remains at a positive level but suggests that the loss in momentum from mid-2018 has persisted into mid-2019.” “The reading for the Composite index is supported by rising output, albeit at a slower pace; new orders; backlog; and overtime. However, employment levels stagnated over the past three quarters. The Australian economy has slowed to an annual growth pace of 1.8%, the softest result since the time of the GFC - September 2009. Private demand is contracting but this is being offset by solid public spending.” “The Expected Composite recovered to 63.3 in June from 60.2 in March. Similarly, optimism surrounding the general business situation bounced with a net 28% of respondents expecting an improvement over the next six months compared to a net 12% in March. The brief dip in manufacturing firm sentiment in March may have been associated with uncertainty ahead of the Federal election. Now that the election is over, along with added impetus from the RBA rate cut on 4 June, optimism has recovered back to levels seen in December 2018, although that is still well down from 2017 peaks.” “The survey's Labour Market Composite, which broadly tracks economy-wide employment growth, is at 52.4. The index correctly led the uplift in employment in 2017 and identified the turning point to slower momentum in 2018. The current level suggests employment growth should hold a moderate pace.”

    EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German da

    EUR/USD is grappling with key average resistance at press time. Better-than-expected German Zew surveys could put a bid under the EUR. ECB's Draghi has little room to sound hawkish. EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German data releases.  The currency pair picked up a bid in the US trading hours on Monday and rose to the 50-hour MA, then located at 1.1247, on the back of weak US data. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for June printed at 8.6 versus the expected expansion of 10.  The rise, however, was short-lived with the pair falling back to 1.1214 by NY close only to rise back to the 50-hour MA in Asia.  The key average could be breached if the German Zew surveys paint a positive picture of the Eurozone's largest economy. The data, however, is expected to show the economic sentiment index deteriorated to -5.8 in June from -2.1 in May. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone reading is forecasted to drop to -3.6 from -1.6. Apart from Zew surveys, the pair will also take cues from Draghi's speaking rounds at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. With market-based measures of inflation expectations recently sliding to record lows, Draghi has little room to sound hawkish. Even so, the EUR/USD pair may find takers if German Zew surveys beat estimates and the US housing data, due at 12:30 GMT, misses expectations by a big margin, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations. The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. Pivot levels 

    In its latest Global Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the US-based Fitch ratings made a downward revision to India’s GDP growth forecast for the

    In its latest Global Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the US-based Fitch ratings made a downward revision to India’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY) 2019-20.Key Findings:“Amid cooling activity in the manufacturing and agriculture sector, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings slashed India's growth forecast to 6.6% for the current financial year from 6.8% projected earlier. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to cut interest rate by another 25 basis points later in 2019, which will push the policy repo rate down to 5.50%. Monetary and regulatory easing from the RBI, along with a recovery in portfolio inflows, should support a recovery in credit to the private sector and reverse the drag from the negative credit impulse. However, the agency retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the next fiscal (2020-21) at 7.1% and 7.0% for 2021-22.” Despite the growth forecast downgrade, the Indian Rupee manages to keep the recovery mode intact vs. the US dollar, with USD/INR back in the red near 69.80 region. The cross faded an uptick to 70.12 once again in early trades.

    Having slipped beneath May month bottom during Monday, the AUD/USD pair now takes the round close to the year 2016 low near 0.6830 during early Tuesday.

    Break of May month low added selling pressure.Oversold RSI, 2016 bottom may question bears targeting the YTD lows.Having slipped beneath May month bottom during Monday, the AUD/USD pair now takes the round close to the year 2016 low near 0.6830 ahead of the European open on Tuesday. Not only strong support surrounding 0.6830 but oversold conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) could challenge the Aussie pair’s further downturn, which if ignored could open the doors for its slump to January month’s flash crash low around 0.6680. It should, however, be noted that 0.6700 round-figure might offer an intermediate halt during the plunge. On the contrary, pair’s U-turn beyond 0.6860 can trigger fresh profit-booking towards 0.6900 and 0.6930 numbers to the north. Additionally, sustained rise past-0.6930 enables the buyers to aim for 0.6970 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.6995/0.7000.AUD/USD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected 

    Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence was down just a notch last week, falling 0.3%, notes the analysis team at ANZ. Key Quotes “The financia

    Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence was down just a notch last week, falling 0.3%, notes the analysis team at ANZ.Key Quotes“The financial conditions sub-indices were positive. Current financial conditions rose 3.9%, while future financial conditions gained 0.2%. The rise has bought both indices back above their long-term averages.” “Current and future economic conditions were down 2.3% and 1.9% respectively.” “Time to buy a major household item’ was also down, falling 1.2%. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 3.8%.”

    Bears continue to hold the reins of GBP/USD amid political pessimism as the pair trades near 1.2530, the fresh five-month low, before key events on Tuesday.

    Political pressure heats up ahead of Tory voting where 6 candidates will be voted for the UK PM’s post.Carney’s speech will also be examined considering recent economic pessimism.Bears continue to hold the reins of GBP/USD amid political pessimism as the pair trades near 1.2530, the fresh five-month low, before the second round of voting for the Tory leadership and Carney’s speech. Doubts over who will replace the present PM Theresa May and renewed pessimism surrounding the UK economy, due to likely hard Brexit, initially weakened the Cable. The downturn was recently carried forward after the British Finance Minister Philip Hammond conveyed his disagreement with the PM May’s spending plans by showing readiness to resign. Investors may now emphasize the outcome of conservative voting, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra and the US housing market numbers for fresh impulse. While each of the remaining 6 candidates requires a minimum of 33 votes to opt for tomorrow’s voting round, Boris Johnson seems to have less problem with that as he got 114 votes during the first round. However, the question will be on who can join him for the contest. Following the poll results, the BBC will hold a debate between the candidates and unlike the previous one Mr. Johnson has shown readiness to attend it. In the case of the ECB Forum, BOE’s Carney might highlight Brexit risk but is less likely to signal any deviation from present policy path. In the end, the US May month housing numbers are likely to portray an upbeat scenario as building permits could remain unchanged at 1.290 million while housing starts may rise to 1.240 million against 1.235 million prior on a monthly basis.Technical AnalysisWith the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) signaling oversold conditions, pair’s uptick beyond May low of 1.2560 can trigger fresh advances towards 1.2660 and 1.2710 numbers to the north. On the other hand, December 2018 low near 1.2480 and the year 2019 bottom around 1.2430 seems next on the bears’ radar during further downside.

    For USD/INR, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. However, the upside is being capped by the 50-day moving average (MA) this week. The

    USD/INR's upside is being capped by key average. Markets already priced in for two Fed rate cuts. A break above 70.00 looks likely.For USD/INR, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. However, the upside is being capped by the 50-day moving average (MA) this week.  The currency pair witnessed a falling wedge breakout on June 13, opening the doors to a retest of May's high of 70.78. The bullish move, however, seems to have stalled at the 100-day moving average resistance, currently at 69.93.  Notably, the pair created a doji candle at the average hurdle on Monday, taking some shine off the wedge breakout confirmed last week. That said, the pattern is still valid and would further gain credence if the spot invalidates the doji candle with a close above 70.00 today.  With 5- and 10- day MAs trending north and an impending bull cross between 5- and 50-day MAs, a break above 70.00 looks likely. It is worth noting that the markets are priced in for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. So, the pair is unlikely to see a big drop even if the Federal Reserve lays the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The central bank's rate decision is scheduled at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.  The escalating trade tensions between the US and India also favor further upside in USD/INR.  Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points 

    Asian equity markets are reporting modest gains this Tuesday morning with investor caution ahead of the central bank meetings capping upside. The Shan

    Asian stocks rise despite uncertainty ahead of Fed rate decision. Nikkei is flashing red with Yen ticking higher. Asian equity markets are reporting modest gains this Tuesday morning with investor caution ahead of the central bank meetings capping upside.  The Shanghai Composite index is currently adding 0.10% gains. Stocks in Australia and New Zealand are up 0.41% and 0.24%, respectively, and those in Hong Kong are adding 0.67%.  Japan’s Nikkei, however, is bucking the broader market trend with a 0.46% drop. The weakness in the Japanese stocks could be associated with the 20-pip rise in the Japanese Yen.  The US Federal Reserve will being a two-day meeting later today. The central bank is expected to level interest rates unchanged this time. However, with growing pressure from the White House to cut rates, the Fed may chose to lay groundwork for a move later this year.  Goldman Sachs, however, warned last week that markets have overpriced rate cuts and the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.  With heightened uncertainty with respect to Fed’s monetary policy, the global equity markets may remain sidelined.  The Bank of Japan’s rate decision is also due later this week. The Japanese central bank is expected to see its stimulus program and again signal willingness to ramp up stimulus if needed.  Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes of the June 4 rate decision released earlier today showed growing consensus among policymakers that more easing would be appropriate. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% earlier this month and is seen cutting rates to 0.75% by the year end.       

    With the British Finance Minister’s warning to resign crossing the wires, the EUR/GBP pair surges to the fresh high since mid-January on early Tuesday.

    UK’s Finance Minister stays ready to resign after amid disagreement over the Prime Minster May's spending plans.Tension ahead of the second round of Tory voting also weighs on the Pound.With the British Finance Minister’s warning to resign crossing the wires, the EUR/GBP pair surges to the fresh high since mid-January before taking the rounds to 0.8970 during early Tuesday. The UK Finance Minister Phillip Hammond announced his disagreement over the Prime Minister Theresa May’s spending plan with a warning to resign. Uncertainty surrounding the UK PM’s race has been weighing on the British Pound (GBP) off-late. The lead runner, Boris Johnson, refrained from attending a debate with rest five candidates while some of the soft Brexit supporters gained more applause during the talks. On the other hand, the Euro (EUR) gained after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council member Benoit Coeure turned down fears of recession with upbeat comments during an interview with Financial Times. While the second round of Tory voting for the rest 6 candidates may grab market attention, speeches from the ECB President Mario Draghi and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney will also become important to observe. The European and UK central bank leaders are scheduled to speak at the ECB’s forum on central banking in Sintra.Technical AnalysisMid-January high of 0.8990 holds the key to 0.9060/70 resistance-area, comprising multiple tops marked between late-December 2018 and early 2019, a break of which could further escalate the north-run towards current year’s high near 0.9120. However, overbought levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicate brighter chances of the pair’s pullback to 0.8950 immediate support ahead of highlighting 0.8900 and 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.8870.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their expectations on Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT. Key Quotes: “Dovish

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their expectations on Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT. Key Quotes: “Dovish FOMC may focus on falling inflation expectations - In light of rapidly falling inflation expectations, the Fed is likely to keep the door to a summer rate cut open. US retail sales strength encourages investors to talk about a mid-cycle rate cut, which would be risk-positive.” 

    GBP/JPY continues to lose altitude, having charted a bearish lower high near 138.30 last week. The pair is currently trading at 135.74, representing a

    GBP/JPY is looking south with bearish setup on the daily chart. The pair is trading in the red for the fifth straight day. GBP/JPY continues to lose altitude, having charted a bearish lower high near 138.30 last week.  The pair is currently trading at 135.74, representing a 0.23% drop on the day. Notably, the currency pair is reporting losses for the fifth consecutive day, its longest losing streak since mid-May.  With the daily chart showing lower highs and lower lows, and descending 5- and 10-day moving averages, the outlook remains bearish. As a result, a further drop toward 135.00 cannot be ruled out.  That said, a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI) would be confirmed if the pair closes in the green today. This is due to the fact that the RSI is still holding well above lows near 19 registered on June 1, as opposed to GBP/JPY's drop to fresh 5.5-month lows today.  Daily chartTrend: BearishPivot points 

    Iron-ore prices traded on the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell for the second straight day this Tuesday on rising demand concerns from the

    Iron-ore prices traded on the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell for the second straight day this Tuesday on rising demand concerns from the mills in the wake of heightened production restrictions in the top steelmaking city of Tangshan. The fall in the prices is also likely to exacerbate the pain in the Australian dollar, as iron-ore is Australia’s top export product. AUD/USD pair continues to meander near five-month lows of 0.6841, as overtly dovish RBA June meeting’s minutes keep the sentiment undermined. The RBA minutes showed that the board members see more rate cuts likely in the months ahead.AUD/USD Technical Levels to Watch 

    In the view of the Deutsche Bank Analysts, the G10 trade of the week is long USD/CAD at 1.3415, with stops loss is 1.3225 and target at 1.3665. Key Qu

    In the view of the Deutsche Bank Analysts, the G10 trade of the week is long USD/CAD at 1.3415, with stops loss is 1.3225 and target at 1.3665.  Key Quotes: “Bar is high for the Fed to validate market pricing of almost 70bps of easing this year.  Domestic data are not unequivocally poor. Financial conditions remain easy. And there is still a possibility of a breakthrough on the administration's trade negotiations with China at the upcoming G20 summit. We would expect a Fed disappointment to be risk-negative and dollar-bullish--an ideal mix for USD/CAD. In case we're wrong and the Fed meets dovish expectations, we believe that pricing for the Bank of Canada would (finally) need to converge.  At any rate, with not even one insurance cut fully priced for this year, the scope for a dovish BoC repricing makes CAD a better short into the Fed than AUD or NZD, which are already pricing Reserve Bank cuts and are closer to being oversold technically. What's more, net shorts in CAD are now lighter than in the Antipodeans, and the Canadian data surprise index has reached thin air at 120 (the highest in the world) ahead of important inflation and retail sales prints this week.”

    Gold is currently trading $1,340 per Oz, representing 0.52 percent gains on the low of $1,333 seen on Monday. The bounce could be extended further tow

    Gold's hourly chart shows a falling wedge breakout.Key indicators are also flashing bullish conditions. Gold is currently trading $1,340 per Oz, representing 0.52 percent gains on the low of $1,333 seen on Monday.  The bounce could be extended further toward $1,350, as the hourly chart is reporting a falling wedge breakout - a bullish reversal pattern which indicates the pullback from Friday's high of $1,358 has ended and the bulls are back in commanding position.  Also supporting the case for a rally to $1,350 is the relative strength index (RSI) on the hourly chart which is reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 print. Further, the 5- and 10-day moving averages are trending north, indicating bullish setup.  Hourly chartTrend: BullishPivot levels 

    Australian Treasurer Frydenberg was out on the wires earlier this Tuesday, noting that he'll introduce the tax package in the first week of parliament

    Australian Treasurer Frydenberg was out on the wires earlier this Tuesday, noting that he'll introduce the tax package in the first week of parliament. The new Parliament will assemble on Tuesday, July, 2 2019.

    USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity this Tuesday morning in Asia with the US dollar losing ground against most majors except the AUD. The currency

    USD/JPY has shed 20 pips in the last hour. The dollar is on the defensive, possibly due to dovish Fed expectations. AUD/JPY selling may have weighed over USD/JPY. USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity this Tuesday morning in Asia with the US dollar losing ground against most majors except the AUD. The currency pair is currently trading at 108.34, having shed 22 pips over the last sixty minutes or so.  The moderate drop could be associated with the broad-based US Dollar weakness, as represented by the Dollar Index, which is currently trading at 97.45 - down 15 pips from the overnight high of 97.60.  The greenback has come under pressure, possibly due to the widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve would lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The central bank is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.  Also, the selling in the AUD/JPY cross may have added to the bearish pressure around the USD/JPY pair. The JPY cross fell to fresh five months lows earlier today in response to dovish RBA minutes and a weaker-than-expected Aussie house price index figures.  Bank of Japan's Kuroda, while speaking in parliament earlier today, took note of the heightened uncertainty in the global economy. His dovish comments, however, have been ignored by markets. Moreover, it is generally accepted by now that the BOJ has exhausted its ammo and the central bank is unlikely to achieve its 2% inflation target any time soon.  Looking forward, the pair may remain under pressure, courtesy of dovish Fed expectations. Pivot levels     

    Reports that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (AKA finance minister) prepared to resign

    Reports that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (AKA finance minister) prepared to resign 

    The downbeat tone of the RBA minutes and sluggish house price data from Australia dragged the AUD/NZD pair to 1.0530, below 200-HMA.

    Break of 200-HMA signal further downside to near-term support-line.Oversold RSI question bears.The downbeat tone of the RBA minutes and sluggish house price data from Australia dragged the AUD/NZD pair to 1.0530, below 200-hour moving average (HMA), during early Tuesday. An upward sloping trend-line since May 10, at 1.0515 grabs sellers’ attention, for now, a break of which can push them towards current month low near 1.0495. Should there be increased selling pressure past-1.0495, March 27 top near 1.0450 could become bears’ favorite. Meanwhile, 21-HMA near 1.0555 seems the adjacent resistance for the pair traders to watch in case of a pullback. If prices manage to clear 1.0555 upside barrier, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of late-May to early June declines near 1.0580 and last week's high surrounding 1.0590 could come back on the chart. It is worth noting that the 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is into the oversold territory indicating brighter chances of a U-turn.AUD/NZD hourly chartTrend: Bearish  

    Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda, while speaking in Japanese parliament on Monday, said the uncertainty over global economic outlook is high and the ce

    Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda, while speaking in Japanese parliament on Monday, said the uncertainty over global economic outlook is high and the central bank will take that into account while setting the monetary policy and ensure the momentum to achieve the 2% inflation target is maintained.  Kuroda added further that global developments will be discussed at the BOJ's rate review meeting, which is scheduled to kick off on Wednesday. 

    The latest housing data published from the world’s second largest economy, China, showed that the home prices ticked slightly higher on the month, cal

    The latest housing data published from the world’s second largest economy, China, showed that the home prices ticked slightly higher on the month, calming somewhat the China slowdown fears.Key Details:All China home prices rose +0.7% m/m in May vs. +0.6% booked in April. Meanwhile, home prices steadied at +10.7% y/y in May.

    The AUD/USD fell to fresh 5.5-month lows after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's June rate decision showed consensus among policymakers t

    The AUD is being offered across the board on dovish RBA minutes. The Aussie house price index falls more than expected. AUD/USD slips to lowest since January 3.The AUD/USD fell to fresh 5.5-month lows after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's June rate decision showed consensus among policymakers that further monetary easing would be appropriate.  The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6841, the lowest level since January 6. Notably, the Aussie dollar is down for the first straight session and has dropped on five out of the last six trading days.  Monetary policy board agreed that further policy easing would be appropriate and factors limiting inflation, particularly wage growth, are expected to last for some time, the minutes said.  As of writing, the market is pricing-in a rate-cut from the RBA by August and another rate cut for December is almost priced in. With the minutes sounding dovish, the markets may begin pricing the possibility of RBA cutting rates in July. As a result, the AUD/USD pair will likely remain on the defensive during the day ahead - more so, as the Aussie house price index fell 3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter compared to -2.6% expected.  It is worth noting that the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% earlier this month. Technical Levels   

    AUD/JPY plunged as the RBA minutes signaling likely monetary easing while going forward and Australian house price index lagging behind market consensus.

    RBA minutes keep highlighting fears of another rate cut.Sluggish Aussie house price data adds weakness into the Australian Dollar (AUD).Risk events remain on the spotlight.With the RBA minutes signaling likely monetary easing while going forward and Australian house price index lagging behind market consensus, the AUD/JPY pair slumped more than 20 pips to a fresh 5-month low near 74.20 during early Tuesday. In its minutes of the June 04 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) statement said that the board agreed "more likely than not" further policy easing would be appropriate. While considering the latest higher than expected Aussie unemployment rate statement like, “labor market would be "particularly important" on deciding further easing” further spread the pessimism. Additionally, Australia’s first quarter (Q1) 2019 house price index fall behind -1.6% market consensus and -2.4% prior to -3.0%. It should also be noted that China's May month house price index, released simultaneously, remained unchanged at 10.7%. During early-day geopolitical tussle between the US and Iran coupled with the US-China trade tension has also contributed positively to the demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY). As per the latest news, the US sent additional troops to safeguard against growing calls of a war with Iran whereas downbeat comments from the US Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross questions likeliness of any positive outcome of the G20 meeting between the US and Chinese leaders. However, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso was recently quoted saying that the US and China will meet during the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan on June 28-29. Global risk barometer the US 10-year treasury yields remain modestly flat near 2.085% by the press time. Having witnessed early-day news/events, investors are more likely to emphasize on developments surrounding the trade and geopolitical tension between the US-Iran and the US and China.Technical AnalysisWhile early-June lows near 75.00 acts as immediate strong resistance, an upside clearance of which can trigger the quote’s rally towards June 10 high around 76.00 whereas 76.40 and 50-day simple moving average near 77.05 could entertain buyers afterward. Alternatively, sustained downturn beneath 74.30 can drag the pair to 73.0 and then to the year 2016 low around 72.40.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of its June 4 2019 monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the key headlines found below. F

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of its June 4 2019 monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the key headlines found below.   Board agreed "more likely than not" further policy easing would be appropriate. Labor market would be "particularly important" on deciding further easing. Board noted lower interest rates not only policy option available on unemployment. Judged June rate cut would help reduce spare capacity in the labor market. Data suggested spare capacity to remain in labor market for some time. Factors limiting inflation, wage growth also expected to last for some time. Lower rates would push down value of A$, reduce household debt repayments. Board aware that lower rates hurt savers, but would stimulate economy overall. Judged lower rates would not spur risky rise in borrowing, or inflation. Persistence of subdued inflation threatened to un-anchor inflation expectations. Housing market remained weak, though auction clearance rates had pick up. Apra easing of bank lending rules would lead to modest increase in borrowing capacity. Escalation in Sino-US trade dispute intensified downside risks to global economy.

    Australia House Price Index (YoY) down to -7.4% in 1Q from previous -5.1%

    China House Price Index remains unchanged at 10.7% in May

    Australia House Price Index (QoQ) came in at -3% below forecasts (-1.6%) in 1Q

    The NZD/YSD has tried to correct from a strong downtrend and but bulls struggle through 0.65 the figure. The 0.6480 is a key support ahead of the Oct 2018 lows in the 0.6420s.MACD leans bearish.Further below, a 127% extension comes in at the 0.6270s, in line with Autumn 2015 levels. Both long-term and short-term stochastics are oversold and some consolidation could be expected. On a break of 0.6550, a 50% mean reversion to 0.6580 could be on the cards. 

    The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8942 vs Monday's fix of 6.8940.

    The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8942 vs Monday's fix of 6.8940. 

    Even if an ascending trend-line since last-Wednesday portrays the USD/CAD pair’s strength, it is yet to clear the 1.3425/30 resistance confluence.

    Recent lows/highs join 4H 200MA to highlight 1.3425/30 as important resistance.Immediate ascending trend-line limits the downside.Even if an ascending trend-line since last-Wednesday portrays the USD/CAD pair’s strength, it is yet to clear the 1.3425/30 resistance confluence as it seesaws near 1.3410 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Not only late-May lows and early-June tops but 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) also increases the importance of 1.3425/30 resistance, a break of which can trigger the pair’s rally towards May 30 low surrounding 1.3485 and then to 1.3500. During the quote’s additional rise past-1.3500, 1.3530 and previous month tops near 1.3565 could become bulls’ favorites. On the downside, 1.3400 and short-term upward sloping trend-line at 1.3375 can entertain sellers during the pair’s pullback. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s decline below 1.3375 can shift market focus to 1.3345 and 1.3280 supports.USD/CAD 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

    Despite latest negative news concerning the US-Iran geopolitical tussle, WTI remains defensive under 4-week old descending trend-line on early Tuesday.

    Global growth worries take over geopolitical tension.Descending trend-line, 200-week MA limit immediate upside.Despite latest negative news concerning the US-Iran geopolitical tussle, WTI remains defensive under 4-week old descending trend-line while trading near $51.80 at the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The US recently sent additional 1,000 troops to the Middle East in order to counter threats from Iran after recently alleging the OPEC member’s role in the Oman attacks. Though, the black gold showed little reaction to the news. The reason could be likely chances of increased global economic damages due to the on-going trade tussle between the US and China. While Bloomberg’s news report suggesting a decline in China’s holding of the US Treasuries raised fears for further escalation in the trade war, the American Chamber of Commerce said that the US and China need to agree over the trade deal in G20 and end the public blame game. Other than political plays, today’s API weekly crude oil stock report will also gain traders’ attention. The private industry survey is scheduled to release the inventory report for the week ended on June 14 with the prior release being +4.85 million.Technical AnalysisWhile a downward sloping trend-line since late-May limits the energy benchmark’s immediate upside near $52.20, 200-week EMA near $52.65 seems additional upside barrier to watch, a break of which can trigger the quote’s rise towards $54.50. Meanwhile, longer-term support-line near $51.00, followed by $50.50 - $50.00 horizontal area, could keep limiting adjacent declines ahead of shifting bears’ towards 26 November low near $49.44.

    USD/JPY has started out in Tokyo within a tight range between 108.50 and 108.58, currently at 108.51. Overnight, the pair was also trading in a tight

    USD/JPY is trading in a tight range despite lower US yields and dovish FOMC expectations. Looking ahead, the FOMC is coming up, as well as the BoJ.USD/JPY has started out in Tokyo within a tight range between 108.50 and 108.58, currently at 108.51. Overnight, the pair was also trading in a tight range, despite a drop in US yields. US 10yr treasury yields fell from 2.11% to 2.08%, partly in response to the US data, while 2yr yields mostly ranged sideways between 1.85% and 1.88%, awaiting the Fed meeting on Wednesday.  The NY Fed's Empire State index of manufacturing sentiment plunged in June, falling a record 26.4pts in the month to -8.6, a 2 ½ year low. The abrupt fall was led by new orders which fell -21.7pts to -12, though shipments, employment and CAPEX plans all notably eased too. "The survey was conducted in early June when concerns about tariffs on imports from Mexico were at their height. Sentiment among US homebuilders slipped in June too, the NAHB index falling unexpectedly to 64 from 66 despite a big decline in mortgage rates this year," analysts at Westpac explained. FOMC coming up Looking ahead, the FOMC is coming up, as well as the BoJ. The main focus will stay with the Fed and while markets are pricing little chance of a cut this week, there is a 90% chance of a Fed fund rate cut by the July meeting, and this meeting around is expected to be uber-dovish. The dots will make up the market's mind as to how many cuts are likely to follow later in the year. Currently, markets are pricing in a total of three cuts priced by December. BoJ in focus On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) wraps up a two-day policy meeting. "It is one of the small meetings, with no new forecasts on GDP and inflation. We expect the BoJ to keep its 'QQE with yield curve control' policy unchanged," analysts at Danske Bank explained. USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that from a technical point of view, the pair continues in consolidative mode, hovering around the 38.2% retracement of the 109.92/107.81 slide, unable to settle above the level: "In the 4 hours chart, technical readings offer a neutral stance, with the price trapped between moving averages, holding above a flat 20 SMA but below a bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart hold right above their mid-lines, lacking directional strength."

    Successful trading beyond 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) helps the EUR/USD pair to aim for short-term descending resistance-line.

    Buyers target immediate descending trend-line backed by 4H 200MA.Failure to cross the resistance may recall early-month lows on the chart.Successful trading beyond 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) helps the EUR/USD pair to aim for short-term descending resistance-line as it trades near 1.1230 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. If prices manage to remain strong above trend-line resistance of 1.1242, 1.1270 and 1.1300 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. Given the bulls’ extended rule over 1.1300, current month high near 1.1350 can be targeted if holding long positions. Meanwhile, the downside break of 4H 200MA level of 1.1213 can fetch the quote to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1200 with 1.1160 being likely follow-on support to grab market attention. Additionally, pair’s decline below 1.1160 might not refrain from visiting late-May low near 1.1100 round-figure.EUR/USD 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

    Forex today was driven in the main by a fall in US yields ahead of the FOMC meeting this week while US data gave the dollar a sucker-punch which it to

    The US 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 2.11% to 2.08%.AUD/USD continued in its southerly trajectory, from 0.6875 to 0.6849 ahead of today's RBA Minutes.Forex today was driven in the main by a fall in US yields ahead of the FOMC meeting this week while US data gave the dollar a sucker-punch which it took on the chin, holding steady amidst heightened Brexit and various other geopolitical uncertainties elsewhere.  The US 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 2.11% to 2.08% following dismal U.S. data whereby the New York Fed's Empire State index of manufacturing sentiment dropped to a record 26.4pts in the month to -8.6, a 2 ½ year low.  "The abrupt fall was led by new orders which fell -21.7pts to -12, though shipments, employment and CAPEX plans all notably eased too. The survey was conducted in early June when concerns about tariffs on imports from Mexico were at their height. Sentiment among US homebuilders slipped in June too, the NAHB index falling unexpectedly to 64 from 66 despite a big decline in mortgage rates this year," analysts at Westpac explained. 
    Currency action EUR/USD traded between 1.1210 to 1.1247 and back while GBP/USD dropped from 1.2600 to 1.2535 on hard Brexit presumptions should Boris take over Number 10 Downing Street. USD/JPY stuck to a tight range between 108.50 and 108.70 and AUD/USD continued in its southerly trajectory, from 0.6875 to 0.6849. The bird was perched for the best part of the day around 0.6500. AUD/NZD dropped from 1.0580 to 1.0540/50. Key-notes from Wall Street:Wall Street benchmarks end higher ahead of FOMC meetingKey events ahead: The minutes from the June RBA Board meeting are due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK - The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

    The US Defense Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan provided additional details of sending 1,000 troops to the Middle East via his twitter handle.

    While news reports concerning the US sending 1,000 extra troops to the Middle East amid growing Iranian threats were already on wires, the US Defense Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan provided additional details via his twitter handle. Keynotes: Have authorized approx 1,000 add’l troops for defensive purposes to address air, naval, & ground-based threats in the Middle East. The recent Iranian attacks validate the reliable, credible intelligence we have received on hostile behavior by Iranian forces & their proxy groups that threaten the United States personnel & interests across the region. The United States does not seek conflict with Iran. The action today is being taken to ensure the safety & welfare of our military personnel working throughout the region & to protect our national interests. We will continue to monitor the situation diligently & make adjustments to force levels as necessary given intelligence reporting & credible threats

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its June 04 monetary policy meeting at 1:30 GMT on Tuesday.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its June 04 monetary policy meeting at 11:30 am Syd/9:30 am Sing/HK and 01:30 GMT on Tuesday. The central bank met market-wide expectations of announcing a quarter percentage cut to its benchmark cash rate during the meeting. As a result, investors will seek more details of the catalysts that led to such a decision in order to predict any such upcoming moves and predict near-term trade direction of the AUD/USD pair. Ahead of the minutes, Westpac expects fewer clues of future rate cuts from today’s minute statement as it says: The RBA of course cut the cash rate 25bp to 1.25%, its first such move since 2016. The cut was 100% priced in, having been effectively confirmed by Governor Lowe’s speech on 21 May. Later on the day of the meeting, Lowe said it was “not unreasonable” to expect another rate cut, given that the technical assumption of 2 rate cuts in the May forecasts. But if we see a heavy hint of when the next cut will come, it seems more likely to be delivered in Thursday’s speech by Lowe rather than in the minutes.How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?While latest prints of higher than expected unemployment rate triggered pessimism surrounding the Australian economy, hints giving more importance to the labor market data in the minute statement could drag the AUD/USD pair further towards the south. Additionally, concerns for the US-China trade tussle could also weigh on the Aussie. Technically, 2016 lows around 0.6830 and January month’s flash crash bottom close to 0.6730 are on the seller’s radar unless the pair manages to clear 0.6900 immediate resistances that hold the gate for 0.6930, 0.6960 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.7010 during further upside.Key NotesAUD/USD awaits RBA minutes, consolidates downtrend AUD/USD technical analysis: Aussie bears challenge May lows and hit levels not seen since January AUD/USD Analysis: getting ready for a long-term slumpAbout the RBA minutesThe minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

    Sustained break of 21-day SMA currently propels the USD/IDR pair towards 200-day SMA as it takes the rounds to 14,416 during early Tuesday.

    A successful break of 21-day SMA shifts market focus back to 200-day SMA.RSI also favors the upside.Sustained break of 21-day SMA currently propels the USD/IDR pair towards 200-day SMA as it takes the rounds to 14,416 during early Tuesday. The pair recently crosses 21-day simple moving average (SMA), which in-turn enable it to question the next important resistance i.e. 200-day SMA near 14,440. However, the latest high near 14,420 might offer an intermediate halt to the price rally. In a case where the quote manages to clear 14,440 mark, May month high near 14,660 and a horizontal-line near 14, 720/25 could flash on buyers’ radar. It should also be noted that 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is also not overbought yet and signal brighter chances of the pair’s rise over the important resistance. Alternatively, the pair’s decline below 21-day SMA level of 14,327 highlights 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2018 to February 2019 downturn near 14,230. During additional downside past-14,230, 14,140, 14,050 and 14,000 may entertain sellers ahead of pleasing them with April low surrounding 13,970.USD/IDR daily chartTrend: Bullish  

    With the growing challenges to the UK’s economy joining political uncertainty surrounding the race to be the British Prime Minister, GBP/USD remains weak.

    Doubts of the UK’s economic strength, political future gain attention.The second round of Tory voting, speech from BoE’s Carney in the spotlight.With the growing challenges to the UK’s economy joining political uncertainty surrounding the race to be the British Prime Minister, the GBP/USD pair slipped to the fresh five-month low on Monday and is currently stabilizes near 1.2540 during early Tuesday. Not only pessimistic survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce but sluggish housing data from the UK also highlights fears that the economy is in a fragile state and not be able to bear the shock of hard Brexit. At the political front, the lead candidate for the UK PM Boris Johnson avoided a television debate where soft Brexit supporters ruled the discussion. The same stirs up the uncertainty ahead of today’s second round of Tory voting. Looking forward, investors will give higher importance to the Bank of England’s (BOE) Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the ECB forum in Sintra together with results of Tory leadership contest where six out of previous 10 candidates will be voted to lead the nation. While BOE’s Carney is less likely to mention any negative statements concerning his recent upbeat appearance, chances of citing Brexit uncertainty as a greater challenge can’t be ruled out. On the other hand, any surprise results from the Tory voting could trigger the Cable’s wild moves.Technical AnalysisHaving breached May month low, December 2018 bottom surrounding 1.2480 and then the year 2019 low near 1.2430 are likely next on the bears’ radar whereas an upside break of 1.2560 becomes necessary for the pair to aim for recovery targeting 1.2660 and 1.2710 numbers to the north

    For gold bulls, the Jan and April highs came in around 1365 which guards the summer 2016 highs in the 1370s ahead of the Sep 2013 highs in the 1435s. To the downside, 1346 was broken and now 1320 is guarding 1311. On a follow through, 1303/06 guards 1297. 1297 level meets the 50% Fibo retracement of the late April and early May double-bottom swing lows to recent spike high. The 55-week ma sits at around 1260s and the 200-week ma comes in at 1250s.

    AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6853, within a tight and early Asia range of between 0.6849/55 ahead of the RBA minutes today. Meanwhile, price acti

    AUD/USD consolidating on a 78.6% retracement ahead of the RBA minutes.Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in view and not much action expected until then.AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6853, within a tight and early Asia range of between 0.6849/55 ahead of the RBA minutes today. Meanwhile, price action was rather dull overnight as well as we await direction from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which meeting starts today and concludes on Asian Thursday.  "While no change to interest rates is expected, we expect an acknowledgement of the deterioration in the international environment and downside risks for growth," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  Meanwhile, the RBA Minutes are going to be a key event for the Asian session. "The Governor’s speech on the eve of his first policy easing, earlier this month, has diminished the importance of the RBA’s minutes (due today)," the analysts at ANZ Bank explained, adding, "Usually, we would look to them for a more detailed assessment of the decision that was made, but with the Governor having already laid out the boards assessment, the minutes will likely provide little more than some additional information on the RBA’s view on recent trend in the labour market."AUD/USD levelsAUD/USD reached a 78.6% retracement level at 0.6857 and now consolidates. Analysts at Commerzbank explained that there are two 13 counts on the 240 minute chart and they will now exit remaining short positions and reattempt longs:  "Initial upside target is the 55-day ma at 0.7008, 0.7022 the June peak and the April peak at 0.7069. Further up resistance can be spotted at the 0.7207 February high. A rise above the 0.7207 late February high would target the December 2018 high at 0.7394."

    With the US-China trade war and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran grabbing the spotlight, AUD/JPY remains on a back foot to 74.40.

    Geopolitics, trade developments gain major market attention.Australia/China housing price data and RBA minutes are in the spotlight.With the US-China trade war and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran grabbing the spotlight, AUD/JPY remains on a back foot to 74.40 ahead of housing market data from Australia and China up for release during early Tuesday. Latest news from Bloomberg signals that China’s holdings of the US Treasuries slipped to $1.113 trillion in April versus March month figures of $1.121 trillion. The trade war between the two countries has been spotted in the report as a reason for the decline in China’s treasury holdings. Elsewhere, Reuters came out with a news report citing unnamed US official saying that the nation is preparing for sending additional troops to the Middle Ease amid threats from Iran. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is considered risk safe and often sought in terms of market uncertainties. Looking forward, house price Index data from China and Australia, coupled with minutes of the latest RBA meeting, could direct near-term pair moves. While May month housing price figure from China grew 10.7%, its counterpart from Australia shrank -2.4% in Q4 2018 and is likely to improve to -1.6% during the first quarter of the current year. Further, investors would seek additional clues of why the latest rate cut was announced the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the minute statement.Technical AnalysisLatest low near 74.30 holds the gate for the quote’s extended south-run to 73.00 and then the year 2016 low around 72.40 whereas an upside break of 74.48 can recall 74.80 and 75.00 on the chart

    Bloomberg came out with the news report mentioning that China cuts its US treasury holdings to the lowest in almost two years due to the trade war.

    Bloomberg came out with the news report mentioning that China cuts its US treasury holdings to the lowest in almost two years mainly because of the prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The news report quotes the US Treasury Department data released on Monday in Washington while saying that China’s holdings of notes, bills and bonds declined by $7.5 billion in April to $1.11 trillion. It was further mentioned that previous figures were collected ahead of a full-fledged trade tussle when the talks collapsed and the US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and announced more increases to come. Expectations of reasons other than trade war were also marked while saying that China would struggle to find another spot to park its cash.

    Early on Tuesday, Reuters cited news from the unnamed US official sources saying that the US is preparing to send additional troops to the Middle East.

    Early on Tuesday, Reuters cited news from the unnamed US official sources saying that the US is preparing to send additional troops to the Middle East in response to the threat from Iran. Iran has been warning the US off-late and said to further move away from the nuclear deal on Monday. Geopolitical disturbances between both the nations i.e. Iran and the US are positive to Crude prices. WTI trades little negative to $51.90 by the press time of early Asian session on Tuesday.

    Mexican President Lopez Obrador was recently on wires, via Reuters, showing the country’s ability to counter and win the US-led trade war it adhered to.

    Mexican President Lopez Obrador was recently on wires, via Reuters, showing the country’s ability to counter and win the US-led trade war it adhered to off-late. Mr. Obrador was quoted saying that Mexico could win trade war with the US but that would be a ‘Pyrrhic’ victory it does not seek. The country recently signed a deal with the US to stop illegal migration into the later one during the 90-day period in order to avoid harsh tariffs by the Trump administration.

    Having attempted a little successful comeback, the NZD/USD pair clings to 0.6500 despite three-quarter low New Zealand consumer during early Tuesday.

    Fails to benefit from weak US data.Shows little reaction to 3-quarter low New Zealand consumer survey.Fewer data on hand but details/events at the largest customers can entertain traders.Having attempted a little successful comeback, the NZD/USD pair clings to 0.6500 despite three-quarter low New Zealand consumer survey results at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. The Kiwi tried taking advantage of sluggish manufacturing and housing data from the US on Monday. However, looming concerns over the US-China trade war and comparative fundamental strength of the US Dollar (USD) maintained downside pressure on the pair. The second quarter (Q2) 2019 data from New Zealand’s Westpac consumer survey dropped to 103.5 versus 103.8 prior, lowest since September 2018. However, traders showed little reaction to the sentiment data. While the local economic calendar doesn’t have anything to direct immediate moves, Australia’s first quarter house price index, RBA meeting minutes and China’s May month house price index could entertain short-term traders. Following that, US housing market stats will also garnet investor attention. China’s house price index rose 10.7% during April while its counterpart from Australia’s contracted -2.4% during last quarter of 2018 and is likely to improve to -1.6% on a QoQ basis this time. The US building permits for May could remain unchanged at downwardly revised 1.290 million whereas housing starts might increase to 1.240 million against 1.235 million earlier. Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting are less likely to offer any more signals for future rate cuts but will be observed to gauge policymakers’ tone while announcing the latest rate alteration.Technical AnalysisRepeated failures to break the yearly low of 0.6480 continues to highlight chances of a pullback to 0.6530 a break of which can escalate the recovery towards May 27 high of 0.6560. Though, a downside break of 0.6480 might not refrain from dragging the quote to October 2018 lows near 0.6460 prior to shifting market focus to the year 2018 bottom of 0.6430.

    USD/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The 50 SMA crossed below the 100 SMA which is a bearish sign.

    USD/JPY is trapped in a tight range between 108.20 and 108.80. A drop below 108.45 support can lead to 108.20 according to the Trend Confluence Indicator.USD/JPY daily chart 
    USD/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The 50 SMA crossed below the 100 SMA which is a bearish sign.
    USD/JPY 4-hour chart
    USD/JPY is consolidating in the 108.20-108.80 range trapped between the 50 and 100 SMAs.
    USD/JPY 30-minute chart
    According to the Trend Confluence Indicator, there is strong support at 108.45 which is the daily Fibonacci 38.2%, the 200 SMA on the 1-hour and the 50 SMA on the 4-hour. If this level is broken to the downside the market could fall to the next level of confluence which is seen near the 108.20 level, the weekly pivot point support 1. 
    On the flip side, bulls will try to overcome 108.70 to reach 108.84 (near previous week high and the weekly pivot point resistance 1). The next resistance is seen at 109.05 (Monthly Fibonacci of 23.6%).
    Trend Confluence Indicator 
    Additional key levels  

    New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey declined to 103.5 in 2Q from previous 103.8

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