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    Forex News Timeline

    Wednesday, January 16, 2019

    Economists at the US investment bank, Citi, offer their afterthoughts on the Brexit vote rejection by the UK Parliament. Key Quotes (courtesy Reuters

    Economists at the US investment bank, Citi, offer their afterthoughts on the Brexit vote rejection by the UK Parliament.Key Quotes (courtesy Reuters):       There is now a “very high” chance that Brexit will be delayed past March 29. “After tonight’s emphatic rejection, small tweaks won’t get the deal over the line,”  “The probability of Article 50 extension is now very high, and the stock of Article 50 revocation is rising too.”

    Moody's was out on the wires in early Asia assuring markets that the vote against the UK PM May's Brexit deal is not, in itself, sufficient grounds fo

    Moody's was out on the wires in early Asia assuring markets that the vote against the UK PM May's Brexit deal is not, in itself, sufficient grounds for Moody's to shift base to a no-deal scenario.  The ratings agency, however, would review the UK's credit profile in case of the no-deal scenario. Key points (Source: Reuters) Vote against the withdrawal agreement extends Brexit uncertainty, raises risks for UK issuers. The outcome of vote further extends period of uncertainty over the UK's relationship with the EU, a credit negative for many rated issuers. Vote against Brexit deal is not, in itself, sufficient grounds for moody's to shift the base case to a no-deal scenario. In case of the no-deal scenario, would formally review the UK's credit profile and other affected issuers. Extension of article 50 would have negative credit implications in the short term due to extension of uncertainty, hampering of business activity.

    The EUR/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (EUR1MRR) are currently trading at -0.45 in favor of the EUR put options. That reading is the lowest si

    The EUR/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals (EUR1MRR) are currently trading at -0.45 in favor of the EUR put options. That reading is the lowest since Dec. 17. Put simply, the demand or implied volatility premium for put options (bearish bets) has hit a one-month high. Notably, risk reversals topped out at -0.10 six days ago, which validates the EUR/USD pair's drop from 1.1570 to 1.14.EUR1MRR

    As noted by Bloomberg, most of the world's largest key equity indexes are rapidly approaching major inflection points at key moving averages, and unil

    As noted by Bloomberg, most of the world's largest key equity indexes are rapidly approaching major inflection points at key moving averages, and unilateral market action on the ebb and flow of risk sentiment could see broader markets take a turn lower at the same time if the levels hold.Key quotesExhibit A is the MSCI World Index, an index of developed-market stocks. The rally in global equities that started the year has stalled out in the past few trading sessions as the gauge ran smack-dab into its 50-day moving average. Stateside, the S&P 500 Index is staring at support that’s turned into resistance. The 2,600 level, which helped define lows in May and October, is now acting as a barrier to the index’s bounce-back from its 9.2 percent drubbing in December. On the first day of December, the Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled below its 50-day moving average. It’s since recovered to within 100 points of that level as of Monday’s close. “In Europe, the signals are pretty clear,” write analysts at Bespoke Investment Group. “The combination of downtrends and declining 50-day moving averages have served as pretty significant resistance over the last few months.”

    Gold is currently trading at $1,290, having clocked a high and low of $1,295 and $1,287 yesterday, respectively. The daily chart shows a bullish (gol

    The 50- and 200-day MAs have produced a golden (bullish) crossover - a lagging/contrary indicatorDips, if any, could be short-lived, courtesy of China's stimulus pledge and Brexit uncertainty.Gold is currently trading at $1,290, having clocked a high and low of $1,295 and $1,287 yesterday, respectively. The daily chart shows a bullish (golden) crossover between the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). That crossover is the product of a strong rally. Therefore, a correction could be in the offing. The price pullback, if any, however, could be short-lived as China is stepping up monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts to support its sagging economy. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected a record CNY 560 billion via reverse repo operations earlier today. Further, China is reportedly planning large scale tax cuts to boost spending. History shows that monetary and fiscal stimulus has a positive impact on gold. Also, political uncertainty in the UK could boost demand for the yellow metal. The odds of hard Brexit may have dropped following the decisive vote in the UK parliament against the May's Brexit deal, however, "no confidence" vote against May's government could lead to early elections. Traders, however, should keep an eye on the USD/CNH pair, which is showing signs of life. A drop in the Chinese yuan could end up pushing the US dollar - gold's biggest nemesis - higher across the board. In that case, gold could suffer a deeper drop.Gold Technical LevelsXAU/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1290.16
        Today Daily change: 1.1e+2 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.0853%
        Today Daily Open: 1289.06
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 1278.53
        Previous Daily SMA50: 1247.69
        Previous Daily SMA100: 1230.43
        Previous Daily SMA200: 1228.94
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1294.75
        Previous Daily Low: 1286.95
        Previous Weekly High: 1297.15
        Previous Weekly Low: 1279.35
        Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
        Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1289.93
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1291.77
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1285.76
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1282.45
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1277.96
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1293.56
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1298.05
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1301.36  

    Oil markets are continuing their trend higher, pushing WTI prices back over 52.00 per barrel in early Wednesday action as investors hope for continued

    Crude prices getting a boost from declining US stocks.Hopes of Chinese cash boosting helping to spur markets forward.Oil markets are continuing their trend higher, pushing WTI prices back over 52.00 per barrel in early Wednesday action as investors hope for continued declines in US stocks and expectations of further cuts from China to boost spending and avert a slowdown. Expectations are rising that crude oil demand will continue to lift through 2019, and US crude oil stocks are also continuing to recede slightly, giving oil prices a chance to develop bullish momentum as OPEC production cuts continue forward, but expectations that China will cut taxes to avert further economic slowdown is seeing investors step further into risk assets, taking commodities higher and oil along with them. Fears of a global growth slowdown are centering around China, and markets are hoping for an aversion of a major crunch by the Chinese government, who have so far kept their responses to economic data to a minimum, cutting reserve ratios and utilizing reverse repo liquidity injections, and investors are hoping for more easy cash to fall from the sky via further policy action from the PBoC. Oil has receded in recent weeks, but today's action sees crude barrels pinning back into near-term highs, sending WTI back over 52.00.WTI Technical LevelsWTI Overview:
        Today Last Price: 52.32
        Today Daily change: 5.0 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.0957%
        Today Daily Open: 52.27
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 48.24
        Previous Daily SMA50: 51.15
        Previous Daily SMA100: 60.19
        Previous Daily SMA200: 64.4
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 52.56
        Previous Daily Low: 50.92
        Previous Weekly High: 53.57
        Previous Weekly Low: 48.33
        Previous Monthly High: 54.68
        Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 51.93
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 51.55
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 51.27
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 50.28
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 49.63
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 52.91
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 53.56
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 54.55  

    Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is out on the wires now, via Livesquawk, expressing their take on the Brexit vote defeat and its impact on the J

    Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is out on the wires now, via Livesquawk, expressing their take on the Brexit vote defeat and its impact on the Japanese companies. Suga noted that the government will closely watch movements related to Brexit. Further, he said that they will take steps necessary to support the Japanese companies on Brexit.

    Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was on the wires earlier today, via BBC News, making some comments following the Brexit vote rejection by the

    Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon was on the wires earlier today, via BBC News, making some comments following the Brexit vote rejection by the UK parliament.Key Headlines:It’s now time for a second Brexit referendum. We cannot waste any more time. Its time top the Article 50 clock. Take this issue back to the electorate.

    The EUR/USD pair is on the defensive at 1.14, although the downside is being capped by the 4-hour 200-candle MA of 1.1390. 4-hour chart The lower

    The EUR/USD pair is on the defensive at 1.14, although the downside is being capped by the 4-hour 200-candle MA of 1.1390.4-hour chartThe lower highs and lower lows, as seen in the above chart, indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. The relative strength index (RSI) is also biased bearish below 50.00. Even so, the 200-candle simple moving average (SMA) support is proving a tough nut to crack. Hence, that MA of 1.1390 is the now the level to beat for the bears. Acceptance under that would open up downside toward 1.1306 (Jan. 3 low). On the higher side, a move above the 10-day MA of 1.1450 would weaken the bearish pressure.   Trend: bearish EUR/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.14
        Today Daily change: -13 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.114%
        Today Daily Open: 1.1413
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1432
        Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1385
        Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1471
        Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1619
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.1491
        Previous Daily Low: 1.1382
        Previous Weekly High: 1.1571
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.1396
        Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1424
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.145
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1366
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1319
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1257
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1476
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1538
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1585    

    China’s State Planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stepped up stimulus measures by announcing that it has approved a new air

    China’s State Planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) stepped up stimulus measures by announcing that it has approved a new airport project worth CNY 32 bn in Hubei province. On Tuesday, the NDRC noted that will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments in its macroeconomic policy.

    Following the stimulus measures signaled by China a day before, China Commerce Ministry is out on the wires now, via Reuters, calling for further effo

    Following the stimulus measures signaled by China a day before, China Commerce Ministry is out on the wires now, via Reuters, calling for further efforts to boost the growth. The Ministry said that it will further boost consumption this year while stabilizing the inbound FDI in 2019.

    The USD/CNH pair could be in for a stronger oversold bounce above 6.80, the intraday technical charts indicate. Hourly chart The higher lows on

    The USD/CNH pair could be in for a stronger oversold bounce above 6.80, the intraday technical charts indicate.Hourly chartThe higher lows on the relative strength index (RSI) and price chart indicate that a temporary low is in place at 6.7429 and a recovery rally could be in the offing. Validating that argument is the band of Fibonacci EMAs, which is beginning to curl upwards.4-hour chartThe RSI on the 4-hour chart has also produced higher lows, validating the oversold conditions reported by the 14-day RSI. Further, the currency pair has found acceptance above the upper edge of the sideways channel. Trend: Bullish USD/CNH Overview:
        Today Last Price: 6.784
        Today Daily change: 1.0e+2 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.155%
        Today Daily Open: 6.7735
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 6.8565
        Previous Daily SMA50: 6.8925
        Previous Daily SMA100: 6.893
        Previous Daily SMA200: 6.7236
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 6.7876
        Previous Daily Low: 6.744
        Previous Weekly High: 6.8687
        Previous Weekly Low: 6.7376
        Previous Monthly High: 6.9509
        Previous Monthly Low: 6.826
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.7709
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.7606
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.7492
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.7248
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.7056
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.7927
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.8119
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.8363  

    As reported by Reuters, the US Treasury Department is looking to create an exclusion process for business leaders hoping to dodge higher Chinese tarif

    As reported by Reuters, the US Treasury Department is looking to create an exclusion process for business leaders hoping to dodge higher Chinese tariffs should trade talks between the two nations fail.Key quotesU.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has assured lawmakers that companies will be able to request exclusions on tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods under discussion with Beijing if talks do not yield a deal by the March 2 deadline. Lighthizer told U.S. Senators he will extend a process of requesting exclusions that is currently only available on an earlier round of 25-percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods. U.S. companies currently have no recourse to seek exemption on the latest round of 10-percent tariffs rolled out in September. If the talks don’t yield a deal by the deadline, Washington is set to proceed with higher tariff rate, which many companies have warned could cause supply disruptions. “If the duty rate on the $200 billion tariff actions is raised to 25 percent, USTR will initiate an appropriate exclusion process,” Lighthizer said in a letter dated Jan. 11 to pro-trade Republican Senator Pat Toomey.

    China has stepped up efforts to shore up its sagging economy. The People's Bank of China injected CNY 560 billion in the system on Wednesday via reve

    China has stepped up efforts to shore up its sagging economy. The People's Bank of China injected CNY 560 billion in the system on Wednesday via reverse repo operations - the biggest on record. The move comes a day after the central bank assured markets of providing "enough support" to the economy. The finance ministry is reportedly planning "large tax cuts" as well, although flood-like stimulus is being ruled out, given the cost of massive stimulus tends to exceed the benefits.

    GBP/JPY is trading into the low end once more, dipping back towards the 139.00 major level Tuesday's rough ride saw the pair mark in a low near 137.30

    Flip-flopping market sentiment sending GBP/JPY back down to 139.00.With the Brexit vote in the rearview mirror, focus continues to drift towards sinking market sentiment.GBP/JPY is trading into the low end once more, dipping back towards the 139.00 major level Tuesday's rough ride saw the pair mark in a low near 137.30 and a high above 140.40 on the back of the UK's key Brexit vote, but market sentiment is continuing to sour and send the majority of Yen pairs back down once again. Market tensions saw the Guppy decline steadily on Tuesday in the run-up to the UK's parliamentary vote on PM May's Brexit withdrawal agreement, and after May's deal met a resounding defeat as was largely expected, the GBP rallied quickly, recovering to the 140.00 major handle, but early Wednesday action is seeing GBP/JPY take another step lower into 139.00 as market sentiment sinks in the Pacific theater. Japanese Machinery Orders for November tumbled to 0.0% (forecast 3.5%, last 7.6%), and now that nobody really knows what will happen with Brexit next, the GBP is giving up ground for the new trading day, with plenty of action on the economic calendar for Wednesday. The Bank of England's Mark Carney will be delivering a speech at 09:15 GMT, followed closely by December's CPI readings for December at 09:30, and markets are expecting inflation to tick down to 2.1% from 2.3%.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsGBP/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 139.06
        Today Daily change: -94 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.671%
        Today Daily Open: 140
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 139.42
        Previous Daily SMA50: 142.65
        Previous Daily SMA100: 144.57
        Previous Daily SMA200: 145.7
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 140.44
        Previous Daily Low: 137.36
        Previous Weekly High: 139.49
        Previous Weekly Low: 137.44
        Previous Monthly High: 145.52
        Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 139.26
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 138.54
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 138.1
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 136.19
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 135.02
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 141.18
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 142.35
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 144.26  

    The GBP/USD pair is struggling to cross the 9-month-long falling trendline for the third day straight, having charted a big doji candle at that diagon

    The GBP/USD pair is struggling to cross the 9-month-long falling trendline for the third day straight, having charted a big doji candle at that diagonal line yesterday.Daily chartAs seen above, the trendline connecting the April and November highs is proving to be a tough but to crack. Also, the long-legged doji candle has established 1.2668 as strong support. A close below that would imply an end of the corrective bounce from the December low of 1.2476. A daily close above 1.2916 (Doji candle high) will signal a continuation of the rally from 1.2476. That would also mark an upside break of the falling trendline and open the doors to 1.3072 (Nov. 14 high).Trend: Neutral. bearish below 1.2668 GBP/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 1.2827
        Today Daily change: -57 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.442%
        Today Daily Open: 1.2884
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 1.2721
        Previous Daily SMA50: 1.2759
        Previous Daily SMA100: 1.2894
        Previous Daily SMA200: 1.3112
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 1.2917
        Previous Daily Low: 1.2668
        Previous Weekly High: 1.2866
        Previous Weekly Low: 1.2704
        Previous Monthly High: 1.284
        Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.2822
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2763
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2729
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2574
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.248
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2978
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3072
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3227  

    China House Price Index rose from previous 9.3% to 9.7% in December

    According to reporting by Reuters, British lawmakers are affirming British business leaders that they are actively preparing for a bid to extend Artic

    According to reporting by Reuters, British lawmakers are affirming British business leaders that they are actively preparing for a bid to extend Article 50, pushing out the final Brexit date until a better deal can be found after PM May's withdrawal agreement was soundly defeated in parliament today.Key quotesFinance minister Philip Hammond, business minister Greg Clark and Brexit minister Stephen Barclay said that a “backbench motion is being prepared now to delay Article 50,” a British corporate executive who was on the call told Reuters on condition of anonymity, adding that business leaders asked ministers about no-deal. “They are doing a good job to try to appear to know what happens now, but no one knows,” the source said. “We will have to wait to see what the consensus-building in parliament does.”

    The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7615 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7542.

    The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7615 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7542.

    The Bank of Korea is out on the wires assuring markets that the direct impact of the Brexit vote on South Korea will be limited and if needed, it woul

    The Bank of Korea is out on the wires assuring markets that the direct impact of the Brexit vote on South Korea will be limited and if needed, it would step in to stabilize the markets.Key quoteSouth Korea has plans in place to curb excessive volatility in FX and other financial markets.

    Britons tightened their purse strings during the holiday season, according to Visa payment card data. Overall consumer spending fell 1 percent year-o

    Britons tightened their purse strings during the holiday season, according to Visa payment card data. Overall consumer spending fell 1 percent year-on-year in December – the biggest fall since April 2018. Notably, spending had dropped 0.7 percent in November. The slowdown in consumer spending is being associated with Brexit uncertainty and comes at a time when the British exporters feeling the heat of the Sino-US trade war.Key quote (via Reuters)"The sustained fall in expenditure throughout the fourth quarter of 2018 coincides with a marked drop in consumer confidence, as uncertainty around the UK's impending exit from the EU continues to dampen sentiment," said Annabel Fiddes, an economist at IHS Markit.

    The focus has been elsewhere, although China has been a hot topic and given the crosses close relationship to the market's risk profile, price action

    AUD/JPY has travelled from a high of 78.51 to a low of 77.81 since yesterday's late Asian session, meeting a high of 78.31 in North American Trade, but is slipping in Tokyo as the yen flexes its muscles down to 78.12 at the time of writing. The focus has been elsewhere, although China has been a hot topic and given the crosses close relationship to the market's risk profile, price action is relative. China was seen as a positive for once due to the supportive stimulus measures announced yesterday, sarking a rally in risk which was supportive of the pair. However, Brexit was in the mix overnight which made for some risk off play leading into the meaningful vote. Brexit is taking the focus for nowWhile the vote meant that we are back to square one again, risk actually returned as that market preferred to lean on the optimistic side of the outcome, despite the heavy loss for PM May. The market is banking on prospects that PM May will now win a no-confidence vote and will be able to conjure up enough support in the Commons on a new deal following concessions from the EU on the next vote around. However, the clock is ticking and it will be a bumpy ride along the way. Wall Street back in the green, Tech stocks were stealing the showUK PM May: Tonight's vote shows nothing about what Parliament supportsGBP/USD spikes lower to 1.2668 on leak of vote, Brexit vote confirms leak, the 'No's' have it, sterling climbs to 1.28 handleAUD/JPY levelsAUD/JPY remains in consolidation around the pivot of 78.20, but the double top highs in the 78.50s and lack of bullish momentum behind the recent correction from the flash crash lows leaves the trajectory vulnerable for a test of the cluster of moving averages guarding a break down to S2 located at 77.63. 

    AUD/USD continues to trade around the 0.7200 key level this week, as Pacific markets struggle to pick an overall direction and broader market sentimen

    Trapped near familiar levels as markets keep their eyes open for China news.With trade talks likely going nowhere, odds of a positive break for trade talks bodes poorly for the Aussie.AUD/USD continues to trade around the 0.7200 key level this week, as Pacific markets struggle to pick an overall direction and broader market sentiment remains underbid but refuses to fall as traders await a push from China trade issues. The Aussie has spiraled around the 0.7200 figure since last Friday as the Antipodean continues to trade in an uninspired fashion, with the broader Pacific-Asia region hanging on for news from US-China trade talks as investors hope for a de-escalation of trade tensions in the region, and even late Tuesday's disappointing showing of the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence reading for January couldn't derail the overall mood, with the indicator sliding from 0.1% to a worrying -4.7%, but Aussie traders continue to keep their eyes locked on China, and with no details forthcoming for the time being, AUD/USD is left to continue spinning its wheels near the key price handle.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
        Today Last Price: 0.7202
        Today Daily change: 2.0 pips
        Today Daily change %: 0.0278%
        Today Daily Open: 0.72
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 0.7098
        Previous Daily SMA50: 0.7188
        Previous Daily SMA100: 0.7174
        Previous Daily SMA200: 0.7326
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 0.7226
        Previous Daily Low: 0.7179
        Previous Weekly High: 0.7236
        Previous Weekly Low: 0.7089
        Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
        Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7208
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7197
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7178
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7155
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7131
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7225
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7249
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7272  

    The USD/JPY pair is feeling the pull of gravity in Asia, having established 108.75 as stiff resistance over the last 24 hours. The currency pair is c

    USD/JPY is on the retreat, having faced multiple rejections near 108.75 in the last 24 hours.Risk-reset is likely on shaky grounds. China stimulus pledge could be overshadowed by the global growth slowdown.The USD/JPY pair is feeling the pull of gravity in Asia, having established 108.75 as stiff resistance over the last 24 hours. The currency pair is currently trading 108.52 - down 0.12 percent on the day. The uptick in the anti-risk Japanese yen is likely an indication that the overnight improvement in the risk sentiment could be transient. The S&P 500 rallied 27 points or 1 percent yesterday on China's stimulus pledge. Bloomberg reported yesterday that China is planning"large-scale" tax cuts to shore up the sagging economy. Further, the PBOC assured markets of "enough support" while dismissing flood-like stimulus. The optimism generated by stimulus talk, however, could be transient, as China's lead indicators are pointing to a pronounced slowdown in the economic activity. That argument would gain credence if the Chinese stocks trade in the red today. Meanwhile, German economic growth has hit a five-year low - 2018 GDP was 1.5 percent;  the lowest since 2013. The odds of a no-deal Brexit may have dropped sharply following the decisive vote in the UK parliament against the May's Brexit deal. The resulting political uncertainty, however, could keep the risk assets under pressure. Add to that, dovish Fed expectations and the path of least resistance for USD/JPY appears to be on the downside.USD/JPY Technical LevelsFXStreet Analyst Valeria Bednarik writes, "the pair retains a neutral stance, hovering within Fibonacci levels and still below bearish 100 and 200 SMA  in its 4 hours chart. The Momentum indicator continues lacking directional strength around its 100 level, while the RSI indicator heads marginally higher around 55." Support levels: 108.30 107.90 107.55        Resistance levels: 108.65 109.05 109.30 USD/JPY Overview:
        Today Last Price: 108.55
        Today Daily change: -12 pips
        Today Daily change %: -0.110%
        Today Daily Open: 108.67
    Trends:
        Previous Daily SMA20: 109.6
        Previous Daily SMA50: 111.8
        Previous Daily SMA100: 112.12
        Previous Daily SMA200: 111.16
    Levels:
        Previous Daily High: 108.78
        Previous Daily Low: 108.13
        Previous Weekly High: 109.09
        Previous Weekly Low: 107.77
        Previous Monthly High: 113.83
        Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 108.53
        Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 108.38
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 108.27
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 107.88
        Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 107.63
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 108.92
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.17
        Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 109.57  

    Leading into the vote, markets were relatively calm, although cable slid sharply. However despite such a magnificent defeat for PM May in the House of

    Frex today was all about Brexit, but it did not turn out the way that the herd expected in terms of price action.Meanwhile, risk sentiment was relatively elevated given the overnight headlines about China's stimulus plans for the Chinese economy. Leading into the vote, markets were relatively calm, although cable slid sharply. However despite such a magnificent defeat for PM May in the House of Commons overnight where she lost the meaningful vote with a difference of yes at 202 to 432 in favour of the 'No's, sterling rallied from 1.2669 to a high of 1.2889. The thinking is that a no deal Brexit is out of the question, or at least, highly unlikely. As such, the downside for GBP is diminished, depending on what side of the market's thinking that you are. Therefore, it would appear that the majority of the market is pricing in a higher probability of a softer or ditched-Brexit altogether. On the other hand, should sentiment return for a disorderly Brexit, as the sand runs low in the hourglass, the pound could come under immense pressure again and it is over the next remaining days this week that we are going to be inundated with Brexit noise, so one should expect to see some more volatility. However, the support for a no deal Brexit appears quite low in parliament and, at this juncture, the case is building for a softer Brexit outcome where the UK opts to remain in the customs union, or calls for a fresh referendum.  GBP/USD closed at 1.2859 in New York. Elsewhere, risk was boosted by news that Chinese authorities will provide further stimulus through tax cuts. The euro fell from 1.1489 in Asia to a low of 1.1381 on Draghi's dovish address to Parliament. USD/JPY was chopped its way through a tight 40 pip sideways range on the 108 handle and the Aussie was benefiting from the Chinese stimulus news initially before sinking from 0.7225 to a low of 0.7179 before moving back to the 0.72 handle in Asia. Key notes from US session:Wall Street back in the green, Tech stocks were stealing the showUK PM May: Tonight's vote shows nothing about what Parliament supportsGBP/USD spikes lower to 1.2668 on leak of vote, Brexit vote confirms leak, the 'No's' have it, sterling climbs to 1.28 handle 

    Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence declined to -4.7% in January from previous 0.1%

    Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) above expectations (0.4%) in November: Actual (0.8%)

    Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (1.8%) in December: Actual (1.5%)

    Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.3%) in December: Actual (-0.6%)

    Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) below forecasts (3.5%) in November: Actual (0%)

    NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6816 as the pair moves towards a neutral position as risk appetite stablises following some temporary calmness in th

    NZD/USD has been chipping away to the downside, falling from an overnight high of 0.6848 to a New York low of 0.6799.NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6816 as the pair moves towards a neutral position as risk appetite stablises following some temporary calmness in the markets around Brexit and China. The bird has been weighed upon by a stronger dollar overnight and some softer New Zealand data of late.Kiwi to drift lower"With businesses downbeat and Q4 CPI shaping up to be soft, weaker domestic data may be weighing at the margin, despite stronger dairy prices. On the whole, we see the current environment as pretty tough for kiwi, with global growth edging lower, liquidity tightening, event risk ever-present, and the domestic outlook not so hot," analysts at ANZ Bank have argued, adding, "We expect NZD to drift lower in time, no doubt with some bumps on the way."NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6650  Resistance 0.6860 A doji is now forming on the daily sticks which should be a warning to the bulls. Meanwhile, the bulls popped through 0.68 the figure and had the 50% Fibo that is located at 0.6929 was in view, on a break of 0.6850. A bullish run would then bring in the December high of 0.6969. On the flip side, a break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6684 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo.

    The S&P 500 SPX climbed 1.1% to finish around 2,610 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, added 155 points, or 0.6%, to 24,065 and the Nasdaq C

    US stocks on Wall Street have firmed on Tuesday given the Chinese authorities intervening with stimulus measures to try and avoid a catastrophe in the economy, of which global markets were fearing could transpire into a worldwide slowdown. The S&P 500 SPX climbed 1.1% to finish around 2,610 while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, added 155 points, or 0.6%, to 24,065 and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, added 1.7% to finish near 7,024, ending above its 50-day moving average for the first time since early October. Tech stocks were stealing the show, (Netflix Inc. NFLX, +6.52% after the video-streaming firm said it would raise prices for U.S. subscribers), but the S&P 500 was also showing an impressive statistic, closing above 2,600 for the first time since Dec. 14th. As for the top three performers of the DJIA, UnitedHealth Group Inc, ended higher by +8.81 or by + 3.55%, followed by  Microsoft Corp +2.96 or by +2.90% and then Nike Inc +1.79, or by +2.35%.DJIA levelsSupport levels: 23867 23770 23627  Resistance levels: 24108 24251 24828 Technically, the daily hanging man did not play out and instead the 50% Fibo retracement Fibo of Dec's decline at 23765 comes into view as fundamentals take over again. Both daily MACD and RSI continue to drift higher although a break and close below S1 located at 23770 will bring focus to the 38.2% Fibo retracement again and attention on the downside, located at 23595.   
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