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Forex News Timeline

Monday, July 13, 2020

The USD/ZAR pair remained depressed for the fourth consecutive session and dropped to over one-month lows, around the 16.70 region on the first day of

USD/ZAR edged lower for the fourth consecutive day and dropped to over-month lows on Monday.The set-up supports prospects for a slide towards testing short-term descending channel support.A subsequent fall might then turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards sub-16.00 levels.Any attempted recovery move now seems to confront a stiff resistance near the 16.90-17.00 region.The USD/ZAR pair remained depressed for the fourth consecutive session and dropped to over one-month lows, around the 16.70 region on the first day of a new trading week. Given last week's rejection slide from the top end of a three-week-old descending trend-channel, a subsequent fall below the 16.90 horizontal support shifted the bias back in favour of bearish traders. This coupled with the fact that oscillators on hourly/daily charts maintained their bearish bias, and are still far from being in the oversold territory, support prospects for further near-term weakness. Hence, some follow-through slide towards challenging the trend-channel support, around the 16.60 region, remains a distinct possibility. A convincing breakthrough will now set the stage for an extension of the downward trajectory back towards retesting June monthly swing lows, around the 16.35-30 region before the pair eventually drops to sub-16.00 levels or support near the 15.85-75 zone. On the flip side, any attempted recovery move now seems to confront a stiff resistance and remain capped near the 16.90 support breakpoint. This is closely followed by the trend-channel barrier near the 17.00-17.05 region, which if cleared decisively will negate the near-term bearish outlook, rather prompt some aggressive short-covering move. USD/ZAR 4-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD weakness was well supported on Friday, holding high level price support at 1.2568/66. The immediate risk stays seen higher for a test of key r

GBP/USD weakness was well supported on Friday, holding high level price support at 1.2568/66. The immediate risk stays seen higher for a test of key resistance from the 200-day average at 1.2701, analysts at Credit Suisse apprise. Key quotes “Immediate resistance remains seen at 1.2681/88, above which and we then see the 200-day average at 1.2701. Whilst we would expect fresh sellers here, a break can expose the downtrend from late last year, currently seen at 1.2737, with the ‘measured base objective’ seen at 1.2808. With the June high and 78.6% retracement of the decline from late last year just above at 1.2813/17, we would expect fresh sellers here.”  “Support moves to 1.2621 initially, with a break below 1.2566 needed to rekindle thoughts of a pullback with support next at the 13-day average at 1.2542, then the ‘neckline’ to the base and 38.2% retracement of the rally from late June at 1.2519/09.”  

"We have got the virus under control across the country but we need to keep it there," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters on Monday.

"We have got the virus under control across the country but we need to keep it there," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters on Monday. Additional takeaways "We do think masks have a great deal of value in confined spaces." "I do think that in the shops it is very important to wear face-covering." "We will be looking at the guidance and saying more in the next few days." "This is a great great year to have a staycation." Market reaction These comments were largely ignored by market participants and the UK's FTSE 100 ındex was last seen gaining 1.25% at 6,171 points.

The economy is showing a steady recovery but the situation remains severe both at home and abroad, China's Premier Li Keqiang told the state media on

The economy is showing a steady recovery but the situation remains severe both at home and abroad, China's Premier Li Keqiang told the state media on Monday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Will adopt a proactive fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy." "Will strive to achieve full-year development target." "Will ramp up credit supply, lower financing costs." "China's economy this year faces unprecedented hit from the coronavirus pandemic and world economic recession." Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on market sentiment. As of writing, major European equity indexes were seen gaining between 0.9% and 1.13%.

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann does not see the ECB modifying its monetary policy at this week’s event. Key Quotes “At its June meeting, the ECB d

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann does not see the ECB modifying its monetary policy at this week’s event. Key Quotes “At its June meeting, the ECB decided to add a further EUR600bn to its EUR750bn COVID-19 rescue plan, bringing the total stimulus package to an astonishing EUR1.5tn.” “Whilst we are not excluding the possibility of further monetary stimulus down the road, the latest measures announced by the ECB should dent any talks or concerns (for now) about whether or not the ECB is willing to play its role of lender of last resort for the Eurozone.”

Economists at Credit Suisse expect the financial sector to remain in its relentless underperformance trend while the energy sector is also awaited to

Economists at Credit Suisse expect the financial sector to remain in its relentless underperformance trend while the energy sector is also awaited to continue its long-term downtrend. On the other hand, the consumer discretionary sector has surged higher and is looked for to outperform. Key quotes “The S&P Financials Sector has been capped at its 200-day average at 444 and we look for the risk to turn lower again with support seen next at 350, then 333, which we look to try and hold.  “S&P Energy Sector recovery has been capped well ahead of key resistance at 389/95 and a fresh top is threatening. Below 259.50 would confirm to turn the core risk lower again.” “Along with Tech the Consumer Discretionary sector has been one of the star performers from late March and with the sector in new highs and above long-term trend resistance we expect this trend to continue, with resistance seen next at 1124, then 1160.”  

DXY is extending the leg lower following Friday’s failure to break above the key barrier at 97.00 the figure. The continuation of the decline is seen

DXY remains under pressure amidst prevailing risk-on trends.Further declines now expose the Fibo level in the 96.00 zone.DXY is extending the leg lower following Friday’s failure to break above the key barrier at 97.00 the figure. The continuation of the decline is seen testing the Fibo level (of the 2017-2018 drop) just above 96.00 ahead of June’s low at 95.71. The negative outlook on the dollar is expected to remain unaltered while below the 200-day SMA, today at 98.25. DXY daily chart  

The NZD/USD pair gained around 50 pips last week and opened in a calm manner on Monday. After edging lower toward mid-0.6500s in the late Asian sessio

NZD/USD is fluctuating in a narrow channel on Monday.US Dollar Index stays in the negative territory.Trading action is likely to remain subdued in the remainder of the day.The NZD/USD pair gained around 50 pips last week and opened in a calm manner on Monday. After edging lower toward mid-0.6500s in the late Asian session, the pair recovered the majority of its losses and was last seen losing 0.18% on the day at 0.6567. USD remains on the back foot at the start of the week Earlier in the day, the only data from New Zealand showed that the Food Price Index rose by 0.5% on a monthly basis in June. On Tuesday, the ANZ's Monthly Inflation Gauge will be featured in the economic docket. Other data of interest for the kiwi will include Trade Balance from China. On the other hand, the upbeat market mood, as reflected by decisive gains witnessed in major European equity indexes, is making it tough for the greenback to find demand. The US Dollar Index, which failed to break above 97 last week, was last down 0.13% on the day at 96.53, helping the pair erase its losses. There won't be any significant macroeconomic data releases from the US on Monday. New York Fed President John Williams' speech at 15:30 GMT will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch for  

Following two consecutive daily pullbacks, EUR/JPY has managed to reclaim buying interest and advance beyond the 121.00 yardstick at the beginning of

EUR/JPY is reversing the recent pessimism and regains poise on Monday.The next stop on the upside emerges at last week’s peaks around 122.00.Following two consecutive daily pullbacks, EUR/JPY has managed to reclaim buying interest and advance beyond the 121.00 yardstick at the beginning of the week. If the buying interest picks up pace and manages to clear the 122.00 area, then the yearly tops in the 124.40/45 band should emerge on the horizon. As long as the 200-day SMA near 119.72 holds the downside, the outlook on the cross is seen as constructive. This contention area is also reinforced by June’s lows in the 119.30 region. EUR/JPY daily chart  

USD/JPY is trading around 107.05 with a limited bullish potential given the absence of dollar’s demand as global equities trade in the green amid hope

USD/JPY is trading around 107.05 with a limited bullish potential given the absence of dollar’s demand as global equities trade in the green amid hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, stresses the pair could accelerate the rise once above 107.20. Key quotes “Equities are up, in line with the ongoing sentiment. As long as they remain on the bullish side, the pair will likely continue to advance. In the data front, Japan published the May Tertiary Industry Index, which resulted in -2.1%, improving from -6% in April.”  “The 4-hour chart shows that sellers are rejecting advances around a bearish 20 SMA, which heads lower below the larger ones. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength, standing just below their midlines.”  “USD/JPY could have better chances of recovering once above 107.20, the immediate resistance.”  

WTI (August futures on Nymex) extends Friday’s sell-off into the European trading this Monday, following a brief consolidation seen above $40 mark ear

WTI faces double whammy starting out a fresh week.US oil sheds 1.50% and breaks below the $40 mark. Broad US dollar bounce also adds to the weakness. WTI (August futures on Nymex) extends Friday’s sell-off into the European trading this Monday, following a brief consolidation seen above $40 mark earlier in the Asian session. The selling pressure accelerated around the black gold, as it breached that level amid a broad-based US dollar recovery, despite a better market mood. A stronger greenback makes the USD-denominated oil expensive for foreign buyers. Meanwhile, talks about a likely easing of the oil output cuts when the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meet later this week continue to undermine the sentiment around the barrel of WTI. Markets are expecting the OPEC+ to partially roll back the cuts to 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd), in the face of a recovery in global oil demand. Meanwhile, the ongoing surge in the coronavirus cases in the US states continue to temper expectations of a V-shaped economic recovery, which also collaborates with the downside in the higher-yielding oil. Looking ahead, the US weekly crude stockpiles data and COVID-19 updates will be closely eyed for the next direction in oil prices. WTI technical levels to watch“61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its June 25 to July 06 upside, around 38.68, will be on their (sellers’) radars. Though, $39.30 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near $39.15 can offer intermediate halts during the fall. On the upside, Friday’s top around $41.00 can act as immediate resistance ahead of the monthly peak close to $41.15. However, the quote’s rise past-$41.00 needs validation from June month’s peak around $41.65 before eyeing February month low near $44.00,” explains Anil Panchal, FXStreet’s Analyst. WTI additional levels   

In a statement published via its official Wechat account, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised citizens to reconsider plans to travel to Austra

In a statement published via its official Wechat account, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised citizens to reconsider plans to travel to Australia amid anti-Chinese sentiment and racism. Earlier in the day, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Australia's souring diplomatic relationship with China was not expected to impede the progress of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Market reaction This headline doesn't seem to be having a significant impact on China-proxy AUD and NZD's performance. As of writing, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.36% on the day at 0.6975 and the NZD/USD pair was down 0.12% at 0.6571.    

Ho Woei Chen, CFA, Economist at UOB Group, assessed the latest inflation figures in the Chinese economy. Key Quotes “China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI

Ho Woei Chen, CFA, Economist at UOB Group, assessed the latest inflation figures in the Chinese economy. Key Quotes “China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.5% y/y in June (Bloomberg est: 2.5%; May: 2.4%). This was led by higher food price inflation while core inflation (excluding food and energy) slipped to 0.9% from 1.1% in the two preceding months.” “Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation eased to -3.0% y/y in June from -3.7% in May (Bloomberg est: -3.2%), marking the fifth straight month of declines.” “Data indicates that the price pressure has remained weak in June despite continuing measures to boost demand and ensure ample market liquidity.” “Weak Inflationary pressure supports monetary easing but PBoC is likely to adopt a more cautious stance as economy recovers.”

EUR/USD is gaining 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.1315 as the pair heads towards the July high at 1.1371. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst

EUR/USD is gaining 0.13% on the day to trade at 1.1315 as the pair heads towards the July high at 1.1371. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects the upside pressure to be kept while the EUR/USD pair trades above 1.1255. Key quotes “EUR/USD is heading back up towards its current July high at 1.1371, above which beckons the June peak at 1.1422. It will remain in play while the cross remains above the two month support line at 1.1267 and, more importantly, above the 1.1168 June 22 low. Immediate upside pressure should be maintained above Friday’s low at 1.1255.”  “The 1.1422 June high, together with the March high at 1.1495, represents quite formidable resistance which we would expect to cap at first. However a break higher is eventually favoured and would target the 2019 high at 1.1570, then 1.1815/22, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from the 2018 peak and the September 2018 high.”  

The USD/CHF pair rallied around 30 pips from daily swing lows and refreshed daily tops, around the 0.9420 region during the early European session. Th

USD/CHF gains some positive traction and turns positive for the third straight session.The upbeat market mood undermined the safe-haven CHF and extended some support.A modest USD rebound from lows further contributed to the pair’s intraday move up.The USD/CHF pair rallied around 30 pips from daily swing lows and refreshed daily tops, around the 0.9420 region during the early European session. The pair managed to attract some dip-buying on the first day of a new trading week and reversed an early dip to the 0.9390 area. The prevalent risk-on environment undermined the perceived safe-haven Swiss franc and was seen as one of the key factors lending some support to the USD/CHF pair. The global risk sentiment remained well supported by firming expectations that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic was probably over. Moreover, the incoming positive economic data has been fueling hopes of a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery and further boosted investors' appetite. The optimism, to a larger extent, helped offset concerns about the ever-increasing coronavirus cases across the world and also seemed rather unaffected by worries over a further deterioration in relations between the world's two largest economies. It is worth recalling that the US President Donald Trump on Friday said that there will be no phase-two trade deal with China. Adding to this, China's Foreign Minister threatened to impose sanctions on US lawmakers. Meanwhile, the latest leg of a sudden uptick over the past hour or so could further be attributed to a modest US dollar rebound from daily lows. Having witnessed some selling through the first half of the trading action on Monday, the greenback managed to find some support at lower levels and provided an additional lift to the USD/CHF pair. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to capitalize on the move or runs into some fresh supply amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/CHF pair might have bottomed out in the near-term and positioning for any further gains. Technical levels to watch  

S&P 500 futures, the lead risk indicator, is off the highs but trades with moderate gains in mid-Europe, as the market mood remains upbeat amid the co

S&P 500 futures look to regain 3200 levels.Bull pennant on hourly sticks to get confirmed above 3198.50.Gains in US stock futures point to positive Wall Street open. S&P 500 futures, the lead risk indicator, is off the highs but trades with moderate gains in mid-Europe, as the market mood remains upbeat amid the coronavirus vaccine hopes. From a technical perspective, the price maintains the upside bias and is poised to chart a bull pennant breakout on the one-hour chart, should it see an hourly closing above 3198.50, the falling trendline resistance. The pattern confirmation could likely call for a test of the 3250-3280 levels in the coming days. On the flip side, the immediate downside remains capped by the bullish 21-hourly Simple Moving Average (HMA), now placed at 3,180.55. Should sellers regain control below that level, powerful support awaits around 3,155, where the falling trendline support, 50 and 100-HMAs intersect. To conclude, the path of least resistance appears to the upside, with bullish hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI), which inches higher near 62.0. Also, the US futures hold above most major HMAs. S&P 500 Futures: Hourly chart

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan gives his views on the upcoming GDP figures in Singapore for the April-June period. Key Quotes “Singapore’s 2Q20 G

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan gives his views on the upcoming GDP figures in Singapore for the April-June period. Key Quotes “Singapore’s 2Q20 GDP growth is scheduled to be released on 14th July 2020. Accounting for the incoming high-frequency data to-date, we forecast Singapore to clock -10.5% y/y (-34.6% q/q saar) in 2Q20. This will also mark the first technical recession since 1Q09.” “We believe that the contraction in GDP will trough in 2Q20, given the Circuit Breaker and Phase One restrictions in this period. Thereafter, we expect GDP to contract but at a more moderate pace of -3.7% y/y and -1.2% y/y in the third and fourth quarters respectively.” “COVID-19-led concerns, coupled with brewing geopolitical and trade tensions in the background, are key drags to Singapore’s growth potential in 2020. Singapore’s output gap to-date remains in negative territory, suggesting that the economy is still growing below potential.” “We still expect the Singapore economy to contract by an average of 4.0% for the whole of 2020 with downside risks, marking the deepest recession since Singapore’s independence. Our forecast is also at the top-bound of MTI’s revised GDP growth range outlook of between -4.0% and -7.0% for this year.”

GBP/USD once again failed near the 1.2665-70 supply zone, ahead of the 200-day SMA, and is seen trading now below the 1.26 level, down -0.2% on a day.

GBP/USD once again failed near the 1.2665-70 supply zone, ahead of the 200-day SMA, and is seen trading now below the 1.26 level, down -0.2% on a day. FXStreet’s Haresh Menghani outlines the cable could extend its decline if breaks below the 1.2565 mark. Key quotes “Bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2665-70 region before positioning for any further appreciating move. The cable might then aim to challenge the very important 200-day SMA, around the 1.2700 mark, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.3515-1.1412 downfall. A convincing breakthrough the mentioned confluence hurdle will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent positive momentum.” “On the flip side, any subsequent pullback is likely to find some support near the previous day’s swing low, around the 1.2565 area. Failure to defend the mentioned support might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall back towards the key 1.2500 psychological mark. Some follow-through selling could accelerate the slide further towards the next major support near mid-1.2400s.”

USD/BRL is trading at 5.32 but the pair is forecast to move higher towards the key psychological barrier at 6.0000 which is expected to cap, according

USD/BRL is trading at 5.32 but the pair is forecast to move higher towards the key psychological barrier at 6.0000 which is expected to cap, according to analysts at Credit Suisse. Key quotes “USD/BRL maintains its large multi-year bullish ‘triangle’ continuation pattern from Q1, with the ‘measured pattern objective’ met during Q2 at the 5.9726 high for a sharp reversal back lower. This weakness has come to a halt ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 surge at 4.7558 for a move back higher.”  “We look for large higher level range to play out, with the short-term risks skewed higher for a fresh test of the current year high and psychological barrier at 5.9714/6.0000, which we expect to cap to define the top end of the range, with 4.7558 expected to floor the market.” “Below 4.7558 can instead see a move back to the 200-day average at 4.6522 and then to the 78.6% retracement and ‘neckline’ to the large base at 4.4253/3386.”  

Brent Crude Oil maintains its base above $37.28 but trades down -1.37% on day to $42.77. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the black gold to extend t

Brent Crude Oil maintains its base above $37.28 but trades down -1.37% on day to $42.77. Economists at Credit Suisse expect the black gold to extend the current consolidation phase before stretching higher.  Key quotes “Brent Crude extends its near-term consolidation but maintains its base above the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 collapse at $37.28. Further consolidation should be allowed for below the 50% retracement of the Q1 fall at $43.86. Above here in due course though should see resistance next at $45.18/50 and then more importantly at $48.74, where the 200-day average is hovering, which we expect to cap the market at least temporarily.” “Near-term support is seen at $37.18/35.37, the May/June price gap, with $33.62 ideally holding further weakness. Only below $28.86 would see the base negated though.”  “Poor momentum increases the risk $43.86 should continue to cap for now for further consolidation and potentially a deeper setback.”  

Gold has held onto solid gains above $1800 despite the broad-based US dollar rebound, as investors remain unnerved amid looming coronavirus risks and

Gold has held onto solid gains above $1800 despite the broad-based US dollar rebound, as investors remain unnerved amid looming coronavirus risks and ahead of the critical US data due later this week. Will the bulls retest the eight-year highs at $1818.17?   The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the buyers continue to face stiff resistance at $1809, which is the convergence of the pivot point one-day R1, previous high on four-hour and Bollinger Band one-hour Upper. A break above the latter will see a rally towards $1818, where the multi-year high, pivot point one-day R2 and Bollinger Band one-day Upper coincide. The next resistance awaits at $1821.40, the confluence of the pivot point one-month R1 and Fibonacci 161.8% one-day. On the downside, $1804.50 will limit any pullbacks, as the SMA50 and 10 one-hour intersect Fibonacci 61.8% one-day at that level. Further south, a cluster of healthy support levels are seen at $1802/01, which is the confluence of the SMA100 one-hour, Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and Fibonacci 38.2% one-week. Here is how it looks on the tool   Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas.Learn more about Technical Confluence

The US elections may not be a dominant FX driver as the socio-economic conditions that help determine the winner could dominate the FX market for some

The US elections may not be a dominant FX driver as the socio-economic conditions that help determine the winner could dominate the FX market for some time to come. Economists at HSBC see the Japanese yen as the best safe-haven asset. Key quotes “The pandemic and the associated economic lockdowns and re-openings have created heightened uncertainty around the US economic outlook. This means the evolution of the nascent US economic recovery is likely to remain at the heart of the outlook for FX in the coming months. Indeed, the socio-economic factors that may help shape the outcome of the elections are likely to retain their grip on the FX market for a period well beyond November's poll.” “We believe any issues around the US economy or the US elections, such as rhetoric from both presidential candidates regarding the state of US-China relations, would be best played at the wings of the RORO sensitivity spectrum. We see the JPY as the cleanest ‘safe-haven’, unencumbered by the intervention threat faced by the CHF. At the other end of the scale are the "risk-on" plays such as the AUD and CAD.” “The RORO implications on the USD may become less clear in an environment where risk appetite is being driven by US-centric factors. For example, strong US data could be USD positive from a cyclical perspective or USD negative due to a reduced ‘safe-haven’ bid.”  

USD/CNY is currently sidelined near 7.00 but analysts at Credit Suisse expect the pair to fall towards the July 2019 low around 6.85 during the third

USD/CNY is currently sidelined near 7.00 but analysts at Credit Suisse expect the pair to fall towards the July 2019 low around 6.85 during the third quarter.  Key quotes “USD/CNY is moving lower in the early part of Q3, breaking below the 200-day average and the 2018 uptrend to complete an in-range top after earlier in the last quarter reaching and reversing from our Q2 target at the 7.1847 2019 high.”  “The ‘measured objective’ to the new in-range top suggests we should see a move to the 2020 and July 2019 low as well as the 38.2% retracement of the 2018/2019 upmove at 6.8625/8242, where we expect the market to hold and shift into a broad range. However, it’s worth noting that a break below here at any stage during the quarter would complete a major ‘double top’.”  “We ideally look to hold below 7.0416/7.0600 to maintain the downside pressure.”  

In its latest report released on Monday, the German Economy Ministry reaffirmed that the economic low point has passed and the road to recovery is und

In its latest report released on Monday, the German Economy Ministry reaffirmed that the economic low point has passed and the road to recovery is underway. Key headlines “Industrial production has passed its lowest point.” “Increase in received orders indicates output will pick up in the coming months.” “But risks exist particularly in very slack demand from outside the euro area.” “There will be GDP growth from Q3 onwards.” Market reaction Despite the upbeat report, broad-based US dollar recovery dragged the EUR/USD pair down to session lows of 1.1307. The EUR bulls ignore the above headlines.

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has managed to regain some poise and rebound from earlier lows in the 96.40/35 band. US Doll

DXY bounces off lows in the 96.40/35 band on Monday.Focus remains on the advance of the COVID-19 pandemic.Monthly Budget Statement, Fed’s Williams next on tap.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has managed to regain some poise and rebound from earlier lows in the 96.40/35 band. US Dollar Index looks to the pandemic, risk-trends The index has started the week on the negative note although it manages well to fade part of the initial pessimism following the opening bell in Europe on Monday. In the meantime, investors’ attention remains on the unremitting progress of the coronavirus pandemic and the potential impacts on the gradual re-opening of the economy. Later in the US data space, the Monthly Budge Statement will be the only release of note, while New York Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) is due to speak as well. What to look for around USD The progress of the COVID-19 in the US remains in the centre of the debate amidst efforts to keep the re-opening of the economy well in place. As always, the broad risk appetite trends emerge as the main driver for the dollar in the short-term coupled with omnipresent US-China trade and geopolitical effervescence. On the constructive stance around the buck, bouts of risk aversion should support the investors’ preference for the greenback as a safe haven along with its status of global reserve currency and store of value. Playing against this, the ongoing (and potentially extra) stimulus packages by the Federal Reserve could limit the dollar’s upside. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is losing 0.04% at 96.62 and faces the next contention at 96.24 (monthly low Jul.9) seconded by 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.72 (monthly low Jun.10). On the other hand, a break above 97.80 (weekly high Jun.30) would aim for 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.25 (200-day SMA).

The USD/CAD pair refreshed daily lows, around the 1.3555 region in the last hour, albeit lacked any follow-through selling and quickly bounced few pip

USD/CAD edged lower on Monday amid the prevalent selling bias surrounding the USD.Weaker oil prices undermined the loonie and helped limit deeper losses, at least for now.The USD/CAD pair refreshed daily lows, around the 1.3555 region in the last hour, albeit lacked any follow-through selling and quickly bounced few pips thereafter. The pair witnessed some selling on the first day of a new trading week and extended its retracement slide from near two-week tops, around the 1.3630 region set on Friday. The downtick was exclusively sponsored by the prevalent US dollar selling bias, albeit a weaker tone surrounding crude oil prices helped limit deeper losses for the USD/CAD pair. Despite worries about the ever-increasing COVID-19 cases across the world, investors seem convinced that the worst of the pandemic was probably over. This coupled with the incoming positive data raised hopes of a swift economic recovery and remained supportive of the upbeat market mood, which continued weighing on the safe-haven greenback. The upbeat market mood seemed rather unaffected by concerns over further deterioration in relations between the world's two largest economies. It is worth recalling that the US President Donald Trump on Friday said that there will be no phase-two trade deal with China. Adding to this, China's Foreign Minister threatened to impose sanctions on US lawmakers. Meanwhile, the downside remained cushioned, at least for the time being, amid sliding oil prices, which tend to undermine the commodity-linked currency – the loonie. In fact, WTI crude oil fell over 1% on Monday as traders look forward to an OPEC technical meeting this week, which is expected to recommend an easing in supply cuts. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the US or Canada, the USD/oil price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD/CAD pair's momentum and produce some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted USD/CNH could drop further and test the 6.9500 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The current movem

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted USD/CNH could drop further and test the 6.9500 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The current movement in USD is viewed as an on-going consolidation phase. For today, USD is likely to trade sideways, expected to be between 6.9920 and 7.0200.” Next 1-3 weeks: “In our previous update from last Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 7.0150), we highlighted that USD ‘is under pressure’. We added, ‘a daily closing below 6.9950 could potentially lead to further sharp loss’. USD subsequently dropped to a low of 6.9815 on Thursday (09 Jul) before closing at 6.9970. USD rebounded last Friday (10 Jul) and while downward momentum has been dented, only a break of 7.0390 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 7.0550) would indicate that the current downside risk has dissipated. Until then, USD could weaken further to 6.9650 with lower odds for extension to 6.9500. Meanwhile, oversold shorter-term conditions could lead to a few days of consolidation.”  

S&P 500 should test the 3026 200-day moving average in the opinion of economists at Credit Suisse as the index has been unable to seize the positive e

S&P 500 should test the 3026 200-day moving average in the opinion of economists at Credit Suisse as the index has been unable to seize the positive economic data released in the past days. Furthermore, the VIX behaviour reinforces the view for a corrective phase. Key quotes “The latest positive data surprise has not been accompanied by a fresh move higher in the S&P 500 which typically points to an exhaustive condition, adding weight to the view for further consolidation/corrective weakness.” “We see scope for a retest of the 200-day average at 3026, with fresh buyers expected here. Only below 2966 though would mark a top and a more concerted move lower with support then seen at 2835 – the 38.2% retracement of the rally from March - which we look to then ideally hold. A close below 2835 though would warn a more important top may have been established in June, with support then seen next at 2712/04.” “Resistance at 3190 capping can keep the immediate risk lower. Above can reassert an upward bias for strength back to 3233 and then into the broad 3260/3338 price gap. Above 3338 can open the door to not only a challenge on the 3394 record high but likely a move above here in due course, with resistance then seen next at 3500.” “43% of stocks are above their 200-day average which is seen as a neutral state.” “The VIX is holding key flagged support around 26/24 and we expect this to remain a floor through Q3 which if correct would suggest little scope for US High Yield Credit spreads to tighten further from here further reinforcing our view for a lengthier consolidation for the S&P 500.”  

According to flash data from CME Group for Natural Gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, this time

According to flash data from CME Group for Natural Gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, this time by around 5.4K contracts. In the same line, volume reversed the previous build and went down by around 45K contracts. Natural Gas: Door open for $1,70 and below Prices of Natural Gas attempted a move higher on Friday, although it was amidst shrinking open interest and volume. That said, there is still scope for a deeper pullback to, initially, the mid-June lows in the $1,67 area per MMBtu.

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a downward bias towards the 106.20 region in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-ho

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a downward bias towards the 106.20 region in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Despite staging a rapid rebound from a low of 106.62 last Friday, it is too early to expect a major recovery. From here, USD is more likely to consolidate and trade between 106.65 and 107.20.” Next 1-3 weeks: “In our previous narrative from last Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 107.35), we held the view that USD 'could trade sideways between 106.80 and 108.05 for a period'. USD dropped below the bottom of the expected range and touched 106.62 last Friday before settling on a soft note at 106.89 (-0.28%). Downward momentum has picked up and from here, USD is expected to trade with a downward bias towards 106.25. At this stage, the prospect a break of last month’s low near 106.05 is not high. On the upside, a break of 107.45 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.”

GBP/USD is approaching the 1.2694/1.2730 resistance area as the cable trades at 1.2633, up 0.10% on a day. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst

GBP/USD is approaching the 1.2694/1.2730 resistance area as the cable trades at 1.2633, up 0.10% on a day. Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects the currency pair to see some consolidation at the mentioned resistance.  Key quotes “GBP/USD is getting ever closer to the 1.2694/1.2730 resistance area which consists of the 200-day moving average and the eight month resistance area. There it is likely to at least short-term stall. Further up beckons the June peak at 1.2814.”  “Immediate upside pressure will be maintained while the cable remains above the 1.2543 June 24 high. Minor support below it can be seen along the 55-day moving average at 1.2439 and also along the March-to-July support line at 1.2364. Below, the next lower 1.2251 late June low lie the April low at 1.2163 and the May trough at 1.2072.”  

Economists at ANZ bank remain positive on TWD and expect continued foreign inflows to support the currency. Therefore, they see USD/TWD trading at 29.

Economists at ANZ bank remain positive on TWD and expect continued foreign inflows to support the currency. Therefore, they see USD/TWD trading at 29.25 by the end of the year, with a bigger move towards 29 on the cards. Key quotes “We have a positive view on TWD, and expect a further appreciation into the end of the year. Our end-2019 target for USD/TWD is 29.25, with a bigger move towards 29 possible.” “Thanks to ample global liquidity which is an important push factor for portfolio flows and a strong pull factor in the form of Taiwan’s domestic economic performance, we can expect to see sustained foreign inflows into Taiwan which will be supportive of the TWD.” “The tech heavy nature of Taiwan’s exports, which has seen increased demand to meet the needs of a global workforce that has been forced to work from home, is also another positive driver for the TWD.”  

The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild positive bias during the early European session, with bulls now looking to reclaim and extend the momentum beyond

The upbeat mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and extended some support to USD/JPY.The prevalent USD selling bias seemed to hold investors from placing aggressive bullish bets.Worries over deteriorating US-China relations might also collaborate towards capping gains.The USD/JPY pair traded with a mild positive bias during the early European session, with bulls now looking to reclaim and extend the momentum beyond the 107.00 mark. Following an early dip to the 106.80 region, the pair managed to attract some buying and moved further away from over two-week lows set on Friday. The modest uptick of around 15-20 pips was exclusively led by the prevalent risk-on environment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen. Despite worries about the ever-increasing COVID-19 cases across the world, investors seem convinced that the worst of the pandemic was probably over. This comes amid the incoming positive data, which raised hopes of a swift economic recovery and remained supportive of the upbeat market mood. However, sustained US dollar selling bias held investors from placing any aggressive bullish bets. This coupled with concerns about a further deterioration in diplomatic relations between the US and China might further contribute towards capping any meaningful gains for the USD/JPY pair. It is worth reporting that the US President Donald Trump on Friday announced that there will be no phase-two trade deal with China in the near future. Meanwhile, China's Foreign Minister was out with some comments in the last hour and said that they will impose sanctions on US lawmakers. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics and investors' appetite for riskier assets will play a key role in influencing the USD/JPY pair's momentum. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further move up. Technical levels to watch  

Strategists at Credit Suisse have noted a great silver performance lately and expect the white metal to look for the $26.22 resistance on a break abov

Strategists at Credit Suisse have noted a great silver performance lately and expect the white metal to look for the $26.22 resistance on a break above $21.14. What’s more, Gold/Silver ratio shows the latter is in line to extend its outperformance.  Key quotes “Silver continues to push its way higher and there are seen clear similarities between price action now and that of gold last year. However, only above 19.65/21.14 would see a multi-year base confirmed, with next resistance then seen at $26.22.” “The Gold/Silver ratio is also back pressuring price and retracement support, beneath which would suggest silver can extend its current outperformance. At present though, this is still a correction within the longer-term gold outperformance trend.”  

Gold is trading above $1,800 per ounce and strategists at TD Securities expect the yellow metal to stay above the mentioned level or even higher fuele

Gold is trading above $1,800 per ounce and strategists at TD Securities expect the yellow metal to stay above the mentioned level or even higher fueled by lower real rates.  Key quotes “Gold remains torn between its safe-haven bona fides, which are prompting money managers to sell on risk-on behavior in markets, and its inflation-hedge characteristics, which are driving a swarm of capital to seek refuge in the yellow metal.”  “Ultimately the regime change toward inflation protection has been the stronger force in recent weeks, seeing the shiny metal trade at higher ranges, most recently north of $1800/oz, as real rates continue to churn lower. This has renewed speculator appetite of late, seeing net length increase once again, although both longs and shorts have increased.”  “Moving forward, given positioning is still not extremely stretched, we anticipate that real rates will continue to drive gold prices higher as normalizing inflation expectations and suppressed rates vol provide fuel for the trade.”  

While speaking to Sky News on Monday, UK’s Justice Minister Robert Buckland said that “we will continue to be robust and frank with China where we thi

While speaking to Sky News on Monday, UK’s Justice Minister Robert Buckland said that “we will continue to be robust and frank with China where we think they have overstepped the mark.” Additional comments “Britain's relationship with China will have to be honest if it is to endure.” “Should not take a 'generalist' approach to all Chinese investment in the UK.” On the post-Brexit immigration system, "It is too early to say this system will somehow disadvantage the care sector." "We will be listening carefully to what is being said and ensure there is the flexibility to make adjustments for need as it rises." Market reaction GBP/USD keeps its range around 1.2650, adding 0.25% on the day. The pound paid no heed to the above comments.

USD/JPY dropped to its lowest level in over two weeks on Friday but neither the 108.00 resistance or the 106.50 support have been challenged. The pair

USD/JPY dropped to its lowest level in over two weeks on Friday but neither the 108.00 resistance or the 106.50 support have been challenged. The pair could accelerate the decline if breaches below the mentioned support, FXStreet’s Joseph Trevisani reports. Key quotes “Several states with rising Covid cases have paused or rolled back their opening plans and while the larger caseload is partially due to more testing and fatalities have only increased marginally in a few cities, hospitalizations are up and the crucial factor is time. The latency period for Covid complications and death is three to five weeks and that time is just starting. If business closures become widespread and mandatory then markets will likely reassess the current risk-on status of the dollar.” “The Relative Strength Index has dipped into negative with the Friday drop below 107.00 but it is a weak indicator until the USD/JPY penetrates 106.50. All the moving averages have been crossed with this week's decline with the 21-day (107.23) now enhancing the resistance line at 107.25, the 100-day (107.69) behind 107.60 and the 200-day (108.39) fronting 108.50.”

Gold built on its steady intraday positive move and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily trading range, around the $1807 region. The pr

A combination of supporting factors assisted gold to regain positive traction on Monday.Sustained USD selling remained supportive amid concerns about rising COVID-19 cases.The prevalent risk-on mood might turn out to be the only factor capping any strong gains.Gold built on its steady intraday positive move and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily trading range, around the $1807 region. The precious metal caught some fresh bids on the first day of a new trading week and snapped two consecutive days of modest losses, stalling last week's modest pullback from multi-year tops. The uptick was sponsored by a combination of factors, with bulls shrugging of the prevalent upbeat market mood. The record increase in COVID-19 cases across the world, coupled with concerns over deteriorating US-China relations extended some support to the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status. It is worth reporting that the US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that there will be no phase-two trade deal with China. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained depressed through the first half of the trading action on Monday, which provided an additional boost to the dollar-denominated commodity. However, the upside is likely to remain limited amid the risk-on environment, as depicted by a positive tone surrounding the global equity markets. Despite worries about the second wave of coronavirus infections, investors seemed convinced that the worst of the pandemic was probably over. This, in turn, remained supportive of improving global risk sentiment and might hold bullish traders from placing fresh bets, rather capping any strong gains for the commodity. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying beyond the $1810 region before positioning for any further appreciating move. The commodity might then surpass the recent swing highs, around the $1818 level, before eventually darting towards the next major hurdle near the $1825-27 region. Technical levels to watch  

Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-3.764B, above expectations ($-4B) in May

Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (-22.5%) in May: Actual (-19.9%)

The European Union (EU) joint borrowing to finance the recovery is not charity, Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez said in an interview with Be

The European Union (EU) joint borrowing to finance the recovery is not charity, Spanish Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez said in an interview with Belgian radio station RTBF on Monday. Key quotes “All the countries involved will contribute to reimbursing the debt, even northern countries dubbed frugal.” "It is not like the Netherlands is providing charity to Spain or France." The comments ahead of the July 17-18 EU leaders’ meeting to decide on the bloc’s long-term budget and coronavirus recovery fund. Market reaction EUR/USD is little changed by the above comments, keeping its range around 1.1330, up 0.30% on a daily basis.

USD/KRW remains in a broad multi-year range. Nonetheless, the Credit Suisse analyst team is biased lower and expects the pair to touch the 1176.63 sup

USD/KRW remains in a broad multi-year range. Nonetheless, the Credit Suisse analyst team is biased lower and expects the pair to touch the 1176.63 support where the pair may consolidate before returning the slump below the 1150 level. Key quotes “USD/KRW did not follow through on the construction of a large multi-year base and reversed aggressively lower during Q2. We believe that there is scope for further weakness and see support initially at the early 2018 uptrend at 1176.63, where we might have some consolidation at first.” “Removal of 1176.63 would then see a move back to the current year lows and 61.8% retracement of the 2018/2020 upswing at 1148.90/1146.73. Beneath here we would see a large top complete, which would reinforce the downmove, with support seen at 1105.95/1104.95 over the longer term.” “Resistance is seen 1245.20 at first, then 1296.75/1302.75.”  

FX option expiries for July 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1350 722m 1.1375 622m 1.1400 847m

FX option expiries for July 13 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1350 722m 1.1375 622m 1.1400 847m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          106.50 360m  106.55 450m 106.75 355m 106.80 418m 106.85 436m 107.50 545m 108.00 414m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6900 669m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6655 1.9bn - EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8900 400m 

The AUD/USD pair edged higher through the Asian session on Monday and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.

AUD/USD regains positive traction on Monday amid the prevalent USD selling bias.The upbeat market mood continued undermining demand for the safe-haven USD.Bulls might wait for a sustained move beyond the key 0.7000 psychological mark.The AUD/USD pair edged higher through the Asian session on Monday and was last seen trading near the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.6970-80 region. The pair managed to regain some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and for now, seems to have snapped two consecutive days of losing streak and for now. The AUD/USD pair has now moved back closer to the key 0.7000 psychological and the uptick was supported by the prevalent risk-on mood. Despite concerns about the second wave of coronavirus infections, investors seemed convinced that the worst of the pandemic was probably over. This was evident from a positive tone in the equity markets, which undermined the US dollar's safe-haven status and benefitted perceived riskier currencies, like the aussie. The global risk sentiment was further supported by hopes for the development of drugs and vaccine for the highly contagious novel coronavirus. Moreover, the incoming positive economic data has been fueling prospects of a sharp V-shaped global economic recovery and remained supportive of investors' appetite for riskier assets. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday. Hence, the broader market risk sentiment will continue to influence the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. Meanwhile, bulls might wait for a move beyond the 0.7000 mark before positioning for any further gains. Technical levels to watch  

The USD/CAD continues its month long bout of range trading with the 4-week movement limited to 1.35-1.37 and the July action to an even narrower band

The USD/CAD continues its month long bout of range trading with the 4-week movement limited to 1.35-1.37 and the July action to an even narrower band of 1.35-1.36. Joseph Trevisani, an analyst at FXStreet, expects the loonie to stay within the range until the market clears up the impact of the current coronavirus outbreak. Key quotes “As the disease normally takes several weeks to produce a fatality, the next two weeks should begin to provide conclusive evidence if the current outbreak will strain the health care systems in the various states affected. If it does governors may be forced to order a second round of business shutdowns with all the accompanying economic damage. If it does not then the recovery should continue apace.” “The constricted range trading of the last month will likely continue for a few more weeks as markets assess the economic danger from the current Covid outbreak.” “The relative strength index is just below neutral as the USD/CAD is near the mid-point of its one month range. The moving averages have divided with the 100-day far above the market at 1.3833, the 21-day at the market at 1.3585 and the 200-day at 1.3505 offering additional support.”  

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said in a statement on Monday, the country’s consumption activity is just 5% lower than normal. more to come ..

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said in a statement on Monday, the country’s consumption activity is just 5% lower than normal.   more to come ...

USD/CAD takes offers around 1.3560/55, down 0.24% on a day, while heading into the European session on Monday. The loonie pair earlier benefited from

USD/CAD reverses from 1.3602, snaps two-day winning streak.US dollar losses its charm amid virus woes, rising equities.WTI attempts recovery on the greenback weakness but fails to defy increasing odds of the supply hike.USD/CAD takes offers around 1.3560/55, down 0.24% on a day, while heading into the European session on Monday. The loonie pair earlier benefited from WTI weakness but failed to cross 1.3600 as the US dollar extends Friday’s losses amid the mildly upbeat session. The US dollar index (DXY), a gauge of the greenback versus the major currencies, drops over 0.25% to 96.40 by the press time. While increasing odds of the further stimulus propels global markets and diverts funds off the US currency, a sustained surge in the American numbers of the coronavirus (COVID-19) makes it a little appreciable for the world’s largest economy. With over 66,500 cases, the US continues to lead the global pandemic numbers followed by Brazil and India. The World Health Organization (WHO) cites the macro surge of over 13.00 million in whereas Reuters highlight figures from Florida and Texas to portray the pandemic outbreak in the US. Even so, Trump administration is pushing hard for the schools to re-open while also praising anti-mask rally. However, markets cheer upbeat signals of further aid packages from the US and the UK, not to forget the Asian quest to combat the virus, to portray the risk-on mood. In doing so, the US 10-year treasury yields seesaw near 0.63% and S&P 500 Futures gain over 0.50% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific also mark notable gains as we write. Not everything is positive for the Canadian dollar (CAD) as the nation’s recent rejection to join the US and Mexico in trade talks gains support from the oil price weakness to challenge the currency bulls. WTI trims the early-day losses but stays over 0.75% in red while taking rounds to $40.45 amid increasing calls of further supplies from Saudi Arabia and Iran. Moving on, a lack of major data/events will keep the traders pushed towards the virus headlines, also news surrounding China, for fresh impetus. However, the quote’s additional weakness depends upon how well the markets manage to extend the latest gains against all odds. Technical analysis 200-day SMA, currently around 1.3500, becomes the tough nut to crack for the pair sellers.  

Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.6% to 6% in June

Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous -4.3% to -3.3% in June

CME Group’s advanced prints for Crude Oil futures markets saw traders scaling back their open interest positions by around 8.5K contracts at the end o

CME Group’s advanced prints for Crude Oil futures markets saw traders scaling back their open interest positions by around 8.5K contracts at the end of last week and reversing two consecutive drops. Volume, instead, rose for the third straight session, this time by around 80.7K contracts. WTI expected to extend the rangebound trading Prices of the WTI keep gyrating around the $40.00 mark per barrel. The consolidative mood around this key level is expected to persist for the time being among the inconclusive trends in both open interest and volume and the absence of a firm catalyst in the oil market.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 13: The risk-on sentiment emerged as the main market driver starting out the week, amid a quiet Asian af

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 13: The risk-on sentiment emerged as the main market driver starting out the week, amid a quiet Asian affair, in the absence of relevant macro news. US dollar remained on the back foot amid the upbeat market mood, as the coronavirus vaccine optimism, following Friday’s Gilead’s latest report and antiviral drug trials underway in China and Australia, continued to dull dollar’s safe-haven appeal. Expectations of upbeat US earnings reports this week and reports that President Donald Trump wore a mask for the first time bolstered the appetite for the higher-yielding assets. The Asian stocks rallied 2% while the S&P 500 futures gained 0.50%. Markets paid little heed to the growing virus count across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported record daily increase in global cases, up over 230,000. The biggest increases were from the US, Brazil, India and South Africa. Within the G10 fx basket, the aussie dollar was the outperformer, with AUD/USD heading back towards 0.7000. GBP/USD jumped to near 1.2670 levels amid the risk-on mood and UK stimulus optimism. The kiwi failed to benefit and traded flat around 0.6580. USD/CAD extended the drop below 1.3600 despite the decline in oil prices. WTI fell nearly 1% to test the $40 mark amid talks of the OPEC+ easing the output cuts at its meeting due later this week. EUR/USD firmed up above 1.1300 despite the US imposing tariffs on French imports for up to $1.3 billion, in response to France’s digital services tax. USD/JPY, meanwhile, traded listless below 107.00, as traders await fresh impetus from the critical US CPI and Retail Sales due for release in the week ahead. Gold started the week on the front foot above $1,800 a troy ounce, underpinned by broad US dollar weakness and looming virus concerns. Cryptocurrencies consolidated the previous spike, with Bitcoin holding up above $9200.

AUD/USD continues to move within the 0.6850/0.7010 range for the time being, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “AUD

AUD/USD continues to move within the 0.6850/0.7010 range for the time being, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “AUD traded in a quiet manner between 0.6924 and 0.6968 last Friday before settling slightly lower at 0.6951 (-0.19%). The underlying has weakened somewhat and this could lead to AUD drifting lower to 0.6910. The next support at 0.6880 is not expected to come into the picture. Resistance is at 0.6965 but the strong level is at 0.6985.” Next 1-3 weeks: “In our previous update from last Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 0.6920), we noted that “upward momentum is beginning to improve but AUD has to close above 0.7010 before further advance can be expected”. AUD subsequently touched 0.7001 on Thursday (09 Jul) before easing off quickly. The build-up in momentum has fizzled out and from here; AUD could consolidate between 0.6850 and 0.7010. Looking forward, AUD has to close out of the range indicated earlier before a more sustained movement can be expected.”

These are the main highlights of the latest CFTC Positioning Report for the week ending on July 7th: Speculators added EUR gross longs and kept steady

These are the main highlights of the latest CFTC Positioning Report for the week ending on July 7th: Speculators added EUR gross longs and kept steady the gross shorts during the week ended on July 7th, taking net longs to 2-week highs to around 103.6K contracts. EUR extended the uptrend for yet another week always backed on the improved mood in the riskier assets, in turn sustained by solid hopes of a strong economic recovery post-pandemic. On the opposite direction, risk appetite trends motivated USD net longs to ease to 2-week lows and stay within the negative territory for the fourth straight week. By the same token, JPY net longs retreated to the lowest level since March 10th and net longs in the Swiss safe haven CHF receded to 2-week lows. The apparent solid recovery in the Chinese economy and commodity prices coupled with the positive outlook on the domestic economy and the RBA stance have been lending extra support to the Aussie dollar in past weeks, dragging AUD net shorts to the lowest level since early April 2018.

USD/IDR prints 0.15% gains to 14,455 during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair defies Friday’s losses but stays below a join of 200-day EMA

USD/IDR registers mild gains after Friday’s failures to cross the key resistance.One-month-old ascending trend line restricts immediate downside.Monthly top, late-May high stand tall to challenge the bulls.USD/IDR prints 0.15% gains to 14,455 during the pre-European session on Monday. The pair defies Friday’s losses but stays below a join of 200-day EMA and 50-day EMA. While the pair’s repeated failure to cross the key EMAs portrays its momentum weakness, an ascending trend line from June 09, at 14,307 now, restricts near-term downside. As a result, the pair traders should wait for a clear break of 14,307 and 14,535/40 area for a better guideline. Should the quote crosses 14,540 level, it needs to refresh the monthly high near 14,635 to aim for 15,000 round-figures. Further, May 27 peak surrounding 15,020 will challenge the bulls afterward. Alternatively, a downside break of 14,307 support line will push the bears to attack 14,000 mark ahead of challenging the previous month's bottom close to 13,850. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Sideways  

Asian equities defy the fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) while taking the bids near the highest since late-January. Not only the virus woes but the

Asian shares cheer the hopes of further corporate debt, increasing odds of the pandemic’s cure.Global virus numbers rise beyond 13.00 million with the US, Brazil and India on the top.Gilead’s Remdesivir, trials in the UK and Australia are all suggesting that the vaccine is nearer.Asian equities defy the fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) while taking the bids near the highest since late-January. Not only the virus woes but the escalation of the US-China tussle also gets a little audience. The reason could be traced from hopes of further monetary and fiscal stimulus from the global policymakers. To justify the same, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gains 0.90% whereas Japan’s Nikkei rises near 2.0% to 22,713 ahead of Monday’s European session. The UK’s Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s readiness to propel the economy joins US President Donald Trump’s push for the worth of a multi-billion dollar of a stimulus. While following the suit, the Bank of Japan appointed news head of the monetary policy team to tackle the economic woes spread by the COVID-19. Also supporting the optimism was a piece by Reuters, relying on the comments from a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson suggesting a 12% jump in the global corporate debt to $9.3 trillion. Other than the virus and aide news, intensifying tension between Beijing and Washington also gains market attention. Following the US warning to its citizens of arbitrary arrests in China, the dragon nation criticized Trump administration and threatened over their presence in Asian waters. Elsewhere, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) suggests an Aussie-China trade pact despite not-so-positive relations among the key trading partners. As a result, Australia’s ASX 200 adds 0.75% to 5,965 while New Zealand’s NZX 50 gains 0.20% by the press time. Further, stocks in China continue to add profits of over 1.5% amid increasing optimism at home and upbeat performance of blue chips. Additionally, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and India’s BSE Sensex print around 1.0% gains Indonesia’s IDX fails to ignore hardships at home. On a broader scale, S&P 500 Futures add over 0.50% with the US 10-year Treasury yields taking rounds to 0.63% to portray mild optimism. Investors may now witness dull trading hours amid a light calendar unless the policymakers from the US and the UK cross wires during the American trading session. Even so, virus updates and news concerning China will be the key to follow for fresh trading directions.

Cable’s stance remains constructive and further gains are expected above 1.2685, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP

Cable’s stance remains constructive and further gains are expected above 1.2685, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “GBP rose and briefly touched 1.2665 last Friday before easing off. While upward momentum has waned, it is too early to expect a major pull-back. From here, GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade between 1.2570 and 1.2685.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on 02 Jul (spot at 1.2475) that GBP ‘is expected to trade with an upside bias but the prospect for a sustained advance above 1.2580 is not high for now’. After GBP rose above 1.2580, we indicated in our previous update on 08 Jul (spot at 1.2545) that GBP “is still likely to trade with an upside bias and could edge up to 1.2630”. GBP rose to a high of 1.2668 last Thursday (09 Jul) and appears to be struggling to maintain its momentum. While the outlook is still deemed as positive, GBP has to close above the major 1.2685 resistance before further sustained gains can be expected. On the downside, a breach of 1.2520 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.2450) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased. Looking forward, if GBP closes above 1.2685, the prospect for a move to last month’s peak at 1.2812 would increase considerably.”

Open interest and volume in Gold futures markets shrunk by nearly 3K contracts and around 67K contracts, respectively, on Friday according to prelimin

Open interest and volume in Gold futures markets shrunk by nearly 3K contracts and around 67K contracts, respectively, on Friday according to preliminary figures from CME Group. Gold: The $1,800 level holds the downside Prices of the ounce troy of the precious metal dropped for the second consecutive session on Friday. The move, however, was amidst declining open interest and volume and leave Gold hovering around the key $1,800 mark for the time being.

According to a story carried by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said that the souring diplomatic relationshi

According to a story carried by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said that the souring diplomatic relationship with China will not impede progress of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). “Australia would continue to advocate behind closed doors for a deal that is in its interests,” Frydenberg said last week. Separately, the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade also said last Wednesday that there was no change in Australia’s commitment to sign the RCEP.

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) up to -2.1% in May from previous -6%

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect EUR/USD to navigate within the 1.1200/1.1380 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “EUR rebounded after

FX Strategists at UOB Group expect EUR/USD to navigate within the 1.1200/1.1380 range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “EUR rebounded after touching a low of 1.1253 last Friday. Upward momentum has picked up, albeit not by much. From here, there is room for EUR to edge higher towards 1.1345 but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely (next resistance is at 1.1380). On the downside, support is at 1.1285 followed by 1.1260.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from last Tuesday (07 Jul, spot at 1.1320) wherein ‘upward momentum is beginning to pick up but EUR has to close above 1.1380 to indicate that it is ready to move to last month’s top at 1.1422’. EUR rose to a high of 1.1370 on Thursday (09 Jul) before dropping back down quickly. The build-up in momentum has more or less fizzled out and from here; EUR could consolidate between 1.1200 and 1.1380.”

USD/INR snaps the two-day winning streak while declining to 75.12 during the pre-European session on Monday. The quote follows the bearish candlestick

USD/INR takes U-turn from 75.22 after the previous day’s bearish candlestick formation.Bearish MACD also favors the sellers targeting a sub-75.00 area.100-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement limit short-term immediate upside.USD/INR snaps the two-day winning streak while declining to 75.12 during the pre-European session on Monday. The quote follows the bearish candlestick pattern to extend the U-turn from 100-day SMA. Also increasing the odds of the pair’s further weakness could be the bearish MACD signals. As a result, the 75.00 threshold is again under attack ahead of 74.80 level comprising July 06 high and Wednesday’s low. However, the quote’s failure to bounce off 74.80 might not refrain from challenging the late-March lows near 74.40. On the flip side, a clear break above the 100-day SMA level of 75.32 will trigger a fresh rise of the pair towards 50% Fibonacci retracement of June 19 to July 07 fall, around 75.50. In a case where the bulls remain dominant past-75.50, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to 75.75 and 76.00 round-figures will return to the charts. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Citing four unnamed sources, Reuters reports that the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, has cut August heavy crude supply for some

Citing four unnamed sources, Reuters reports that the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, has cut August heavy crude supply for some Asian refiners. Additional details The cuts are at least four buyers in Asia. The cuts are mainly for Arab heavy crude. Market reaction Despite the supply cut news, the black gold fails to benefit, with the US oil down 0.80% to test the 40 mark while Brent oil drops below $43. Iran's Oil Minister: Will expand the oil output capacity

GBP/USD takes the bids near 1.2655, up 0.27% on a day, while heading into the London open on Monday. While broad US dollar weakness could be considere

GBP/USD carries Friday’s strength to take the latest U-turn from 1.2621.UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak prepares another aid package, Michael Gove pushes to prepare for Brexit.Significant differences prevail in the post-Brexit talks, BoE’s Bailey to speak on Libor, British Home Secretary Priti Patel to announce post-Brexit immigration plans.GBP/USD takes the bids near 1.2655, up 0.27% on a day, while heading into the London open on Monday. While broad US dollar weakness could be considered as the key reason for the Cable’s latest upside, hopes of another stimulus from the UK and efforts to tame the coronavirus (COVID-19) favor the bulls. Even so, traders await a speech by the BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and British Home Secretary Priti Patel for fresh impetus. With the surge in the US COVID-19 numbers, odds of an extra aid package from the policymakers fail to defy the greenback bears. As a result, the US dollar index (DXY), a gauge of the US currency versus the majors, slips over 0.22% to 96.45 as we write. Over the counter, UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak isn’t yet tired of inflating the government’s push to hike the demand. Following his last week’s multi-billion pounds of the package, the Chancellor is anticipated, as per the UK Telegraph to introduce sweeping tax cuts and an overhaul of planning laws in up to 10 new "freeports" within a year of the UK becoming fully independent from the European Union in December. Furthermore, news that a cross-party group of politicians will analyze the country’s pandemic situation and help overcome the crisis also offered a ray of hope to the pair traders. Additionally, the optimists also cheer research undertaken by Oxford University suggests positive results and Professor Robin Shattock suggests that there will be enough vaccine for each of the British people in the first half of 2021 if trials succeed. On the contrary, the UK-EU talks again stalled during the last week with “significant differences”, per the Bloomberg, suggesting no remedy from the saga. As a result, the British Cabinet Minister warned businesses to stay prepared for the Brexit, irrespective of the outcome of the current negotiations. Amid all these plays, markets seem to cheer increasing odds of further policy support with S&P 500 Futures and stocks in Asia-Pacific marking gains while the US 10-year Treasury yields staying clueless around 0.63%. Looking forward, the British diplomat Priti Patel will offer further details of her point-based immigration system. The Guardian says, “The Home Office has previously revealed the core principles behind the forthcoming points-based system, which is meant to be introduced when the transition period from leaving the European Union ends on 1 January. Under the system, UK borders will be closed to so-called non-skilled workers and applicants will have to show a greater understanding of English.” Additionally, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is up for participating in the panel discussion titled "Libor: Entering the Endgame". The BOE Chief will be accompanied by the officials from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to speak about the key rate. While BOE’s Bailey has always signaled, indirectly, about the rate cut, other policymakers remain divided which in turn makes the case of GBP/USD more complex. Technical analysis Despite mostly positive fundamentals, a rising wedge bearish formation on the four-hour chart keeps the GBP/USD pair sellers hopeful unless the quote crosses 1.2715 pattern resistance. However, a sustained break of 1.2600 becomes necessary for the sellers to take entry.  

EUR/USD is fast closing on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) hurdle at 1.1333 at press time. The bulls have failed to keep gains above the long

EUR/USD eyes key technical resistance as risk-on weighs over the US dollar. The shared currency is at the mercy of the broader market sentiment as the data calendar is light on Monday. ECB may sound cautiously optimistic on Thursday, putting a strong bid under the EUR. EUR/USD is fast closing on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) hurdle at 1.1333 at press time. The bulls have failed to keep gains above the long-term SMA in five out of the past six weeks.  The pair is reporting a 0.30% gain as the uptick in the US stock futures is keeping the US dollar under pressure. As of writing, the futures on the S&P 500 are up nearly 0.5%, meaning the US equities are likely to extend Friday's rally.  Focus on the ECB The data calendar is empty on Monday. As such, the pair is likely to track the broader market sentiment, which is currently looking risk-on, as noted earlier.  The main event of the week, however, is the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate decision, due on Thursday. "We expect a repetition of recent comments from various governing council members, thereby striking a cautiously optimistic tone compared to the June projections. We also expect they may decide not to use the EUR 1,350 billion pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) envelope in full. No new initiatives are expected next week," analysts at Danske Bank wrote in their research note titled "ECB Research - Steady course, but cautiously optimistic". That said, Danske Bank analysts believe markets may not be prepared for a "less dovish" outcome. Currently, markets are pricing 7 basis points of rate cuts at the trough by the end of next year. Moreover, the true extent of the damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak in the second quarter only becomes clear towards the end of the month with the first estimates for GDP growth. In addition, the Eurozone is witnessing a rebound in economic activity, driven by the lifting of the lockdown measures.  Hence, the ECB is unlikely to ramp up stimulus this week or hint at additional easing and may sound less dovish, in which case, the shared currency would pick up a strong bid. "We remain constructive and expect the broad USD to decline over the coming months. In turn, our 3M forecast is 1.15," Danske Bank analysts noted. Technical levels  

Iran is looking to expand its oil production capacity in anticipation that an eventually end of US-imposed sanctions would allow it to claw back its s

Iran is looking to expand its oil production capacity in anticipation that an eventually end of US-imposed sanctions would allow it to claw back its share of of the global oil market, according to Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. “It’s true that our output is low because of cruel and illegal sanctions, but things won’t stay the same,“ Zanganeh said in a speech broadcast on state television, according to Bloomberg.  Zanganeh added that Iran needs to increase production capacity to be able to return to the market in full force and restore our share whenever necessary. The nation's oil exports tanked after the U.S. withdrew from Iran’s nuclear deal and imposed sanctions on its energy sector. 

WTI recedes to $40.31, down 1.06% on a day, during the early Monday’s trading. The black gold extends late Friday's pullback from $40.89 but 200-HMA k

WTI stays pressured beyond $40.00 despite multiple bounces off 200-HMA.MACD conditions suggest bears rolling up their sleeves for entry.Bulls will have multiple upside barriers beyond $41.00.WTI recedes to $40.31, down 1.06% on a day, during the early Monday’s trading. The black gold extends late Friday's pullback from $40.89 but 200-HMA keeps restricting immediate downside. Even so, repeated failures to stay strong above $40.00 joins the likely turn of MACD histogram in favor of sellers to suggest the energy benchmark’s momentum weakness. As a result, the bears are preparing for entry below 200-HMA level of $40.28 to attack $40.00. In doing so, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its June 25 to July 06 upside, around 38.68, will be on their radars. Though, $39.30 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near $39.15 can offer intermediate halts during the fall. On the upside, Friday’s top around $41.00 can act as immediate resistance ahead of the monthly peak close to $41.15. However, the quote’s rise past-$41.00 needs validation from June month’s peak around $41.65 before eyeing February month low near $44.00. WTI hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/JPY is trading in the red on Monday near 106.80. Charts suggest scope for deeper losses toward key support at 106.10. USD/JPY is currently tradin

USD/JPY is trading in the red on Monday near 106.80. Charts suggest scope for deeper losses toward key support at 106.10.USD/JPY is currently trading at 106.80, representing a 0.10% drop on the day, having hit a high of 106.94 early Monday.  The pair has carved out a big descending triangle over the past 3.5-months. At press time, the lower end of the triangle is located at 106.10, and resistance is seen at 108.93.  Also, within the triangle, the pair has charted a lower high on the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) hurdle. The MACD histogram has crossed into a bearish territory below zero and the 14-day relative strength index is reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print.  As such, one may expect the pair to continue losing ground toward the triangle support at 106.10.  The bearish bias would weaken if the pair prints a daily close above the descending trendline hurdle, currently located at 107.43.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Gold is better bid at press time with prices trading above $1,800 per ounce alongside a weak tone in the US dollar, the yellow metal's biggest nemesis

Gold rises 0.30% as the dollar index drops 0.20%. The US stock futures rise, keeping the safe-haven US dollar under pressure. The US coronavirus cases tally crosses the 3.3 million mark. Gold is better bid at press time with prices trading above $1,800 per ounce alongside a weak tone in the US dollar, the yellow metal's biggest nemesis.  The greenback is trading in the red despite the continued rise in the number of coronavirus cases in the US and other parts of the world. The US alone recorded 59,747 new infections in the last 24 hours, according to Johns Hopkins University. With that, the total number of cases in the US crossed the 3.3 million mark.  The weakness in the greenback, a preferred safe haven since the beginning of the virus crisis, could be attributed to the uptick in the US stock futures. At press time, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.5% gain, a sign the risk sentiment remains strong and stocks are likely to extend Friday's rally.  Looking forward, the yellow metal is likely to continue tracking the action in the US dollar. The greenback may find bids, if the US corporate earnings season, due to begin this week, reveals bigger-than-expected economic damage in the second quarter, leading to a pullback in the equity markets. In that case, gold may come under pressure.  The losses, however, could be short-lived, as dips my be met with increased haven demand. Also, the Federal Reserve is still buying treasuries at a faster pace. As such, the investment demand for gold is likely to remain high.  Technical levels The bearish divergence of the MACD histogram and the 14-day relative strength index's downside break of an ascending trendline suggests scope for a pullback. The yellow metal may revisit support at $1,765 (May 18 high) in the short-run. On the higher side, resistance is seen at $1,818 (July 8 high).   

China’s Financial News said in a commentary on Monday, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy will focus more on "moderateness", while st

China’s Financial News said in a commentary on Monday, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy will focus more on "moderateness", while structural policies will be the optimal choice to support small firms and stabilize employment. Additional headlines “Overall easing cannot, of itself, support companies and save jobs.” “The PBOC will continue to push for lower actual interest rates on loans and company financing costs in H2.” USD/CNH Price Analysis: Sidelined after bullish Doji reversal

Speaking to the UK media on Sunday, the UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said that Brexit transition will likely happen by the end of this year, irres

Speaking to the UK media on Sunday, the UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said that Brexit transition will likely happen by the end of this year, irrespective of the type of agreement reached with the European Union (EU). Key quotes "At the end of this year we are leaving the single market and Customs Union regardless of the type of agreement we reach with the EU." "This will bring changes and significant opportunities for which we all need to prepare."

NZD/USD rises to 0.6580 amid the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair defies the two-day losing streak while extending the late-Friday

NZD/USD struggles to defy two-day losing streak, recently eased from 0.6583.New Zealand Food Price Index came in better than expected.Odds of RBNZ rate cut in August keeps increasing amid a global rush to combat the virus.US-China and Canberra-Beijing tussles question the risk-on mood.NZD/USD rises to 0.6580 amid the Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the kiwi pair defies the two-day losing streak while extending the late-Friday recoveries from 0.6546. Though, the quote seesaws near June month high after easing from the fresh high since January 27 flashed on Thursday. Although the coronavirus (COVID-19) spread and fear of the US and Australian tension with China should ideally weigh on the quote, the NZD/USD prices seem to follow the risk-tone sentiment to portray the latest upside. While portraying the risk-on mood, S&P 500 Futures rise over 0.5% whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields keep Friday’s recovery moves around 0.63% by the press time. Among the positives, increasing expectations of the COVID-19 cure and another round of a global monetary, as well as the fiscal, stimulus from the policymakers seem to please the market players off-late. Also, the Wall Street news that the US has a few options to punish China over the Hong Kong security law, due to the city’s status as a financial hub adds to the market’s optimism. Furthermore, the increase in New Zealand’s June month Food Price Index, from -0.8% to +0.5%, also favors the pair’s upside. On the contrary, the surge in the global pandemic numbers beyond 13.00 million and Aussie/US warnings of arbitrary arrests of their respective citizens living in China tame the risk-on sentiment. Considering this, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “the RBNZ is keeping all options on the table for tools it could use, and those that would help dampen the exchange rate (or limit further appreciation) should be carefully considered.” This could weigh on the NZD/USD prices but nothing has been witnessed so far. With no major data/events up for publishing on the calendar, the pair traders will keep taking clues from the risk-tone for fresh impetus. In doing so, the virus and China could become their keywords. Technical analysis A sustained break above 0.6600 becomes necessary for the bulls to attack the mid-January top near 0.6665. Alternatively, short-term sellers may seek entries below June 23 low near 0.6530.  

Oil prices may rise to $100 or even $150 a barrel over the next five year, as the current oil crisis severely depress investment in production, severa

Oil prices may rise to $100 or even $150 a barrel over the next five year, as the current oil crisis severely depress investment in production, several analysts told the Wall Street Journal. Analysts are divided into two camps, as noted by oilprice.com – the ones predicting higher prices due to coronavirus-induced underinvestment and others making bullish forecasts on expectations that demand would never return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels.  Key quotes (source: Oilprice.com, WSJ) "We could hit $150 pretty easily by 2025," said Trevor Woods, a chief investment officer of Ohio-based hedge fund Northern Trace Capital.  “Could we see oil move to $100 over the next two years?” “Absolutely,” JP Morgan’s Malek told the Journal.  Citigroup, however, things the idea of oil being quoted in triple digits is more fantasy than reality. Over the long term, $45 per barrel of Brent looks more likely scenario than $60 a barrel, analysts at Citigroup noted earlier this month. 

Cardano has managed to keep sentiments towards it positively among investors. The launch of the Shelly protocol remains Cardano’s biggest achievement

Cardano remains the focal point for investors as the staking launch draws nigh.ADA/USD bulls are unrelenting in the fight for $0.15 despite the hurdles at $0.13 and $0.14.Cardano has managed to keep sentiments towards it positively among investors. The launch of the Shelly protocol remains Cardano’s biggest achievement in more than five years. The much-awaited staking feature has investors waiting with bated breaths. Staking allows users to lock their tokens within the network. The tokens are used to secure the network while users earn rewards (passive income) in return. Last week, Cardano consistently rose to $0.1386 but failed to clear the resistance at $9,400. The reversal that followed saw Cardano plunge towards $0.10. Buyer congestion at $0.11 stopped the losses and forced ADA/USD back into a bullish trajectory that resulted in the formation of an inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern. The impact of the H&S pattern contributed greatly to the recovery that pulled Cardano above $0.13. At the time of writing, ADA/USD is trading at $0.1302 while the ongoing bullish action is supported by the RSI and the MACD. The RSI in the 1-hour range is holding the position above 70 after climbing to 77.55. As long as the RSI holds in the overbought region, then gains towards $0.14 are likely in the European session on Monday. The MACD also shines the light onto the ongoing bullish momentum as it moves higher within the positive region. On the flip side, the overbought RSI could also signal a reversal. However, it very unlikely that ADA/USD reversal would cause a lot of damage considering the high investor interest. Besides, support is anticipated at $0.1275 the 50 SMA at $0.1235, $0.1225 and $0.12. ADA/USD 1-hour chart

USD/CNH's daily chart shows a bullish Doji reversal. The pair lacks a clear directional bias at press time amid an uptick in the S&P 500 futures. USD

USD/CNH's daily chart shows a bullish Doji reversal. The pair lacks a clear directional bias at press time amid an uptick in the S&P 500 futures.USD/CNH is struggling to gather upside momentum despite the bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart.  The pair is currently sidelined near 7.00 and trading well within Friday’s range of 7.0168 to 6.9948. Bull Doji reversal The pair jumped 0.18% on Friday, marking a positive follow-through to the seller exhaustion signaled by Thursday’s Doji candle.  Essentially, Friday’s rise has confirmed a bullish Doji reversal pattern on the daily chart. In other words, the pattern indicates that the sell-off from May 27 high of 7.1964 has ended and the bulls have regained control.  So far, however, the bulls have remained on the sidelined, possibly due to fears that the US dollar, a preferred safe haven, may take a hit amid the uptick in the US stock futures.  The bullish Doji reversal, however, would be invalidated only if the pair finds acceptance under Thursday’s low of 6.9809.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish  Technical levels

In a statement released on Monday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced Seiichi Shimizu, currently head of its markets department, will become head of th

In a statement released on Monday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced Seiichi Shimizu, currently head of its markets department, will become head of the bank's department overseeing monetary policy drafting, per Reuters. This move is seen to curb the coronavirus impact on the economy, as Shimizu has played a key role in calming pandemic-ravaged markets. The BOJ eased monetary policy in March and April, easing corporate funding strains triggered by the outbreak. It is expected to keep policy steady at a two-day rate review ending on Wednesday. USD/JPY stays below 107.00 Divided between risk-on mood and broad US dollar weakness, USD/JPY trades flat around 106.80, awaiting a fresh direction. The above announcement had virtually no impact on the yen markets. 

The Australian state of Victoria, the COVID-19 hotpot and under lockdown once again, reported 177 new infections on Monday while New South Wales (NSW)

The Australian state of Victoria, the COVID-19 hotpot and under lockdown once again, reported 177 new infections on Monday while New South Wales (NSW) recorded 14 news cases. The major outbreak is seen the Melbourne city. Of the 177 new cases, 25 of these in known outbreaks, 151 are under investigation. 1 hotel quarantine, 72 in hospital and 17 are in intensive care. For Victoria, 22,943 tests were conducted in the past 24 hours. The national death toll has surpassed 100 mark, with 108 deaths reported. Earlier in the session, Reuters reported that Victoria saw 273 new cases of the coronavirus and another COVID-19 death on Sunday. Market reaction AUD/USD is advancing 0.22% to test the daily highs of 0.6966 amid the risk-on market environment-induced broad US dollar weakness and gains in the S&P 500 futures.  

AUD/USD rises to 0.6960, up 0.13% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. The aussie pair recently took a U-turn from 200-HMA while keeping a short-t

AUD/USD bounces off 0.6939 to attack 0.7000 but stays inside a four-day-old trading range.200-HMA offers intermediate support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the downside filters.Bulls will have multiple resistances to conquer past-0.7000.AUD/USD rises to 0.6960, up 0.13% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. The aussie pair recently took a U-turn from 200-HMA while keeping a short-term trading range intact. Looking at the normal RSI conditions and the quote’s latest recoveries from the key HMA, AUD/USD prices may again aim for 0.7000. However, its further upside will be challenged by the early-June tops surrounding 0.7030 ahead of highlighting the previous month’s high near 0.7065. Additionally, July 2019 peak close to 0.7085 will become an extra upside barrier before fueling the pair towards 0.7100 threshold. Meanwhile, a 200-HMA level of 0.6945 can stop sellers ahead of the range support near 0.6920. If at all the quote slips below 0.6920, 0.6900 level comprising 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of June 30 to July 09 upside will be the key as it holds the gate for the pair’s further downside. AUD/USD hourly chart Trend: Sideways  

Dollar index dips 0.18% as the US stock futures rise. Risk sentiment remains strong despite the lingering coronavirus concerns. Focus this week will

Dollar index dips 0.18% as the US stock futures rise.Risk sentiment remains strong despite the lingering coronavirus concerns. Focus this week will be on the US earnings seasons and the US inflation and retail sales data.Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against majors, is flashing red at press time, indicating a risk-on environment in the financial markets.  The DXY is trading at 96.48 at press time, representing 0.18% decline on the day. The American dollar faced rejection at 97.80 in the last week of June and has been on a declining trend ever since with investors betting buying equities and risk-sensitive currencies on hopes that the worst of the coronavirus crisis was behind us.  Markets have treated the greenback as the safe-haven currency since the beginning of the coronavirus crisis in early March. As such, the dollar tends to weaken when risk-sensitive currencies and the equity markets put on a good show. At press time, the futures tied to the S&P 500 are reporting a 0.5% rise.  However, one may argue that markets have lost touch with reality, as the number of coronavirus cases in the US and other parts of the world continues to rise. For instance, the US state of Florida reported an increase of more than 15,000 new cases on Saturday, a record for any state, according to Reuters.  A continued rise in cases could force authorities to reimpose lockdown restrictions, which would kill the still-nascent economic recovery.  The US corporate earnings season, scheduled to start this week, will reveal the true extent of the damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak in the months of April and May. In addition, investors will watch US inflation figures for June, due on Tuesday and the retail sales figure, due on Thursday.  Technical levels The DXY is closing on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) support, currently at 96.45. Sellers have failed to keep losses below that SMA line in four out of the last five weeks. As a result, acceptance below that long-term SMA line could bring in additional selling pressure, yielding a decline to a low of 94.65 seen in March. Alternatively, a strong bounce from the SMA, if followed by a move above 97.80 (June high), would confirm a double bottom breakout on the weekly chart.

US, Brazil, India and South Africa have registered their biggest rises in COVID-19 cases, according to the UN health agency. The rises come as the Wor

A record increase in global coronavirus cases over the weekend.US, Brazil, India and South Africa have biggest rises in COVID-19 cases.US, Brazil, India and South Africa have registered their biggest rises in COVID-19 cases, according to the UN health agency. The rises come as the World Health Organization confirmed a record increase in global coronavirus cases over the weekend, with the total rising by 230,370 in 24 hours. The previous WHO record for new cases was 228,102 on July 10. Deaths have remained steady at about 5,000 a day.  Global coronavirus cases were approaching 13 million on Monday, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University. The disease has killed more than 566,000 people in these seven months for which has sent the global economy into a tailspin and financial markets in turmoil. We have seen plenty of optimism, however, that a recovery will be resolved over time, a recovery funded by fiscal and central bank stimulus, for which has driven investment into global equities and risk assets. What will the next Covid stimulus bill look like?However, the virus is relentless and showing no signs of retreating. Consequently, markets are on edge and equity prices are fragile.  More on this here:S&P 500 Index Forecast: Bank's earnings in focus, COVID-19 induced insolvency fears simmer awayLatest updates Meanwhile, in the latest updates, the United States has reported another record increase of COVID-19 infections, with more than 66,500 new cases confirmed in the past 24 hours.  India's coronavirus caseload is nearing 850,000 with a record surge of 28,637 cases in the past 24 hours. Bangalore has been forced into a week-long lockdown. In other parts of Asia, S.Korea confirms 62 more COVID-19 cases, total 13,479. Mainland China reported eight new COVID-19 cases as of the end of July 12, up from seven reported a day earlier, the Chinese national health authority reported today.  meanwhile, Hong Kong is reported by the Global Times to be facing "the most serious situation" since #covid19 pandemic started, with 38 more cases confirmed on Sunday.  The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases for mainland china now stands at 83,602, while the death toll remained unchanged at 4,634. South Africa' Health Minister Zweli Mkhize warns of a COVID-19 "storm" as the country reports 13,497 new coronavirus cases, reaching a total of 264,184, including 3,971 deaths. In Europe, hundreds of thousands of Catalonia residents have been sent back into a lockdown pertaining to the rapid spike in new coronavirus cases in the Spanish region Mexico has now overtaken Italy and is now the fourth in global COVID-19 deaths with deaths rising by 276 to 35,006 Then, the US COVID-19 cases have risen 1.7% which is less than the 1-week avg of 1.9%. Texas cases rose 3.3%, less than the seven-day average of 3.9% while Florida set a one-day record with over 15,000 new COVID-19 cases. In some good news, an Australian coronavirus vaccine human trial will begin today at the University of Queensland which has developed a COVID-19 vaccine on 120 human subjects. Preliminary results are expected after about three months.
 

GBP/JPY takes the bids to 135.15, up 0.11% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. The pair recently gained from increasing odds of another stimulus

GBP/JPY snaps two-day winning streak to pierce 135.00.UK Chancellor Sunak prepares tax cuts, 10 news freeports to combat the virus.British Cabinet Minister Gove urges businesses to prepare for Brexit.GBP/JPY takes the bids to 135.15, up 0.11% on a day, during Monday’s Asian session. The pair recently gained from increasing odds of another stimulus from the UK policymakers. However, news concerning the hard Brexit, virus outbreak and British tussle with China keep the upside guarded. Having already announced multi-billion pounds of relief measures to counter the coronavirus (COVID-19) led economic slowdown, British Chancellor Rishi Sunak is preparing for another aid package to combat the pandemic. As per the UK Telegraph, “Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is preparing to introduce sweeping tax cuts and an overhaul of planning laws in up to 10 new "freeports" within a year of the UK becoming fully independent from the European Union in December, The Telegraph can reveal.” On the other hand, Cabinet Minister Michael Gove said on Sunday, per Reuters, “At the end of this year we are leaving the single market and Customs Union regardless of the type of agreement we reach with the EU. This will bring changes and significant opportunities for which we all need to prepare.” The diplomat also defends the government’s £705m funding package to help manage Britain's borders, as per the BBC. Furthermore, a research chief from the UK suggests that there will be enough vaccine for each of the British people in the first half of 2021 if trials succeed. Even so, as per the Independent, Professor Robin Shattock warned there is still no guarantee that its fast-track research will produce an inoculation with immunity against coronavirus. Elsewhere, global markets remain mildly positive amid hopes of further stimulus from the UK and the US. Additionally, hopes of the pandemic’s cure add strength to the optimism. However, increasing cases from the US becomes the key concern that joins the Sino-American tension to weigh on the risk-tone sentiment. As a result, S&P 500 Futures print 0.40% gains to 3m190 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 0.63% as we write. Looking forward, Brexit will be in the spotlight as the UK and the European policymakers discuss departure terms. Additionally, the cross-party group of investigations on the virus will join the news surrounding stimulus to entertain traders amid a light calendar. Technical analysis Unless successfully breaking a 200-day EMA level of 136.20, bulls should remain cautious.  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9965 versus Friday's fix at 6.9943.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9965 versus Friday's fix at 6.9943.

USD/JPY is trading flat for the start of Tokyo in the opening hour. The pair has been in a tight 10 pip range between 106,.84/94 since the start of th

Yen remains a safe haven currency of choice as trade wars and the coronavirus play havoc risk apatite.Investors pin hopes on Gilead Sciences reporting that its antiviral drug Remdesivir recorded positive results in clinical trials.USD/JPY is trading flat for the start of Tokyo in the opening hour. The pair has been in a tight 10 pip range between 106,.84/94 since the start of the week, so far, From Friday, the markets gave been in consolidation while risk sentiment was mixed as investors lean on the air of caution when approaching markets at extremes while COVID19 shows little sign of retreating in its spread around the world.  Regional equities and currencies were slipping on the expanding US case count and USD/JPY fell from 107.00 to 106.64 before rebounding to 106.95. There was one lifeline thrown on the headlines that Gilead Sciences reported that its antiviral drug Remdesivir recorded positive results in clinical trials. Analysts at Westpac explained that the treatment had been reducing mortality rates by 62% compared to standard care and noted that German biotech firm BioNTech said it is confident its vaccine will be ready for regulatory approval by the end of the year. Several hundred million doses could be produced even before approval, and over 1 billion by the end of 2021, according to CEO Dr. Ugur Sahin.
In other news, trade wars were rearing their ugly head again with US President Trump casting doubts on a phase two trade deal, saying the relationship with China has been "severely damaged".US warns its citizens in China they risk ‘arbitrary’ arrestThere have been some additional comments in a war of words piping up again with White House trade advisor Peter Navarro saying he expects President Trump to take “strong action” against Chinese-owned TikTok and WeChat for engaging in “information warfare”. Economic adviser Kudlow also said it would be “unwise” for US investors to put their money in China. Chinese media has responded in kind. The Global Times today has reported that a "US travel advisory on China, citing “arbitrary detention” as an excuse, is a blatant distortion of facts in a bid to hype up a “china fear” sentiment among Americans, which will push the two countries further apart on the decoupling track."  as for US data, ahead od Retail sakes this week and Consumer Price Index, US June Producer Price Index inflation was soft, falling 0.2%m/m (vs est. +0.4%m/m), and ex-food and energy falling 0.3%m/m (vs est. +0.1%m/m). Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's Robert S. Kaplan wants to see the government doing more as he gave the nod to adding to the current fiscal and monetary policy. He said the risks are skewed towards dis-inflation due to excess capacity.  USD/JPY levels  

EUR/USD bulls need a break above the 200-week SMA. The average has been capping gains since the end of May. EUR/USD is trading near 1.1310 at press t

EUR/USD bulls need a break above the 200-week SMA. The average has been capping gains since the end of May.EUR/USD is trading near 1.1310 at press time, representing a 0.12% gain on the day, having failed to keep gains above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) last week. Currently, the SMA is located at 1.1333.  The buyers have failed to establish a foothold above the 200-week SMA in five out of the last six weeks. Similar price action was seen in February, following which the pair fell to lows near 1.0630.  As such, the 200-week SMA is the level to beat for the bulls. A weekly close above higher will likely cause more buyers to join the market, possibly yielding a breakout above 1.15. Alternatively, another rejection could embolden sellers and shift the focus to support at 1.10.  Weekly chartTrend: Bullish above 200-week SMA Pivot Points  

Gold prices print mild gains of 0.12% while taking the bids near $1,801.30 during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Monday. The yellow metal portrays

Gold prices extend recoveries from $1,798.14, defies two-day losing streak.A seven-day-old bullish technical pattern, sustained trading beyond immediate support favor the buyers.200-HMA offers additional downside support, bulls will cheer break of $1,811.60.Gold prices print mild gains of 0.12% while taking the bids near $1,801.30 during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Monday. The yellow metal portrays a bullish flag on the hourly chart while keeping its trading momentum beyond a seven-day-old support line and 200-HMA. Considering the bullion’s repeated bounces off near-term key supports, coupled with the MACD conditions, buyers may aim for $1,805 as an immediate resistance ahead of confirming its further run-up. In doing so, $1,811.60 holds the key to challenging the recent high, also the highest since late-2011, around $1,818.20. It’s worth mentioning that the late-August 2011 tops near $1,840 might offer intermediate halts during the precious metal’s rise to the record high above $1921. Alternatively, an upward sloping trend line from July 02, at $1,795.90 now, can become immediate support ahead of the said flag’s lower line near $1,792.30. If at all the sellers defy the bullish formation, a 200-HMA level of $1,788 will validate the quote’s further weakness. Gold hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

S&P 500 Futures decline to 3,184.38 as markets in Tokyo open for the week’s trading on Monday. The risk barometer recently came under pressure as glob

S&P 500 Futures takes a U-turn from 3,198.38, the highest since June 19.Market sentiment sours as virus spread continues with US-China tussle.Expectations of stimulus, vaccine fails to repeat Friday’s performance amid a light calendar.S&P 500 Futures decline to 3,184.38 as markets in Tokyo open for the week’s trading on Monday. The risk barometer recently came under pressure as global traders reassessed Friday’s risk-on sentiment that initially propelled the quote to the multi-day high. In doing so, the derivative repeats its recent pattern of alternating gains with the losses establishes since July 02. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports record high daily new cases on Sunday, with the latest figures crossing 230,370. With this, the global count rises further beyond 13.00 million with over 565,000 death toll. The US, Brazil and India, unfortunately, lead the global nations to suffer due to the coronavirus (COVID-19). Among the US states, Florida and Texas are the front runners with the recent updates suggesting over 15,000 new cases from the further. Additionally, Texas marked 8,196 new cases with 3.3% daily rise versus a 3.9% 7-day average. Looking to the Sino-American tussle, the US recently warned its citizens living in China of arbitrary arrests, like Aussie policymakers did last-week. Following that, Beijing criticized the Trump administration backed plans to increase presence in Asia while also warning of its negative implications. Even so, the Wall Street Journal’s piece citing the US decision-makers’ inability to levy harshest sanctions on China because of the Hong Kong security law, mainly due to the city’s status as a financial hub, limits the risk-off mood. It should also be noted that the global efforts to find a cure to the pandemic has recently offered upbeat results from the clinical trials and have offered additional barrier for the pessimists. Recently, the much-championed Remdesivir marked positive results over the third stage of trials and helped to cut the death toll, as per the research results published Friday. Other than the virus news, Sino-American tension, expectations that the global policymakers are inching closer to another round of monetary and fiscal supports also probed the risk aversion wave. Amid all these catalysts, the US 10-year Treasury yields refrain from extending Friday’s gains while taking rounds to 0.63% whereas Japan’s Nikkei rises 1.4% as we write.

Analysts at JP Morgan now see USD/CNY falling to 6.95 by the end of the third quarter compared to the previous forecast of 7.10. The fourth-quarter p

 Analysts at JP Morgan now see USD/CNY falling to 6.95 by the end of the third quarter compared to the previous forecast of 7.10. The fourth-quarter projection has also been revised lower to 7.0 from 7.10.  The investment bank expects China’s yuan (CNY) to get a lift from large equity-related inflows. “As the correlation between equity inflows and USD/CNY moves has risen to multi-year highs on account of China’s substantially increased weight in major equity benchmarks, risks are skewed toward further downside in USD/CNY from continued equity inflows,” analysts noted.  At press time, the pair is trading at 6.9980, representing a 0.52% gain on a year-to-date basis, but down 2.5% from the high of 7.1766 registered on May 27. 

USD/CAD rises to 1.3595, up 0.05% on a day, as Tokyo opens for Trading on Monday. The loonie pair remains above 200-bar SMA but fails to cross short-t

USD/CAD remains mildly bid following the recent U-turn from 1.3585.A seven-day-old horizontal resistance restricts the pair’s immediate upside.Sellers can aim for June 23 low under 200-bar SMA.USD/CAD rises to 1.3595, up 0.05% on a day, as Tokyo opens for Trading on Monday. The loonie pair remains above 200-bar SMA but fails to cross short-term horizontal resistance. As a result, traders are waiting for a clear sign of breaking the key technical levels for near-term direction. Considering the strong RSI conditions, the pair is more likely to extend the recent recovery moves towards the 1.3625/30 resistance region. Though, it’s further upside becomes difficult and will have to travel past-1.3655 and 1.3700 to challenge the June 26 top near 1.3715. Given the pair’s ability to stay positive beyond 1.3715, the previous month’s peak close to 1.3800 could return to the charts. On the downside, a clear break below 200-bar SMA level of 1.3573 will drag the quote to 50% Fibonacci retracement level of June 10-26 upside, at 1.3515. During the quote’s further weakness under 1.3515, June 23 bottom surrounding 1.3485 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3468 will be the key to watch. USD/CAD four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

AUD/JPY declines to 74.28 ahead of the Tokyo open on Monday. In doing so, the quote trims the early-day gains from 74.30 to 74.41. It’s worth mentioni

AUD/JPY recedes from the intraday high of 74.41.Fresh updates concerning the coronavirus, US-China tussle challenge the market’s previous risk-on mood.Hopes of further stimulus, virus vaccine news tame the bears.Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index might offer intermediate moves, qualitative catalysts to remain as the key drivers.AUD/JPY declines to 74.28 ahead of the Tokyo open on Monday. In doing so, the quote trims the early-day gains from 74.30 to 74.41. It’s worth mentioning that the pair flashed two consecutive days of losses during the late last week, which in turn keeps it near to the month-start lows. While Friday’s optimism offered a positive start to the pair, the traders’ reassessment of the risk catalysts, backed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) news and the Sino-American tussle, seems to have recently attacked the market’s risk-tone sentiment. Though, hopes of further stimulus and increasing odds of the cure to the pandemic raise the bars for the bears. Worsening virus conditions at home and abroad become the key reason for the AUD/JPY pair traders’ worries. Not only the global daily record high of new cases above 500,000 but a three-digit weekly count in Victoria and a surge in the new cases from New South Wales (NSW) also highlight the risk of the pandemic. During the last week, the Aussie government announced various restrictions on the border and stepped back from the further easing of the lockdown. Though, a major virus outbreak taking clues from Melbourne’s pub recently threatened the policymaker’s efforts. Even so, news that the Australia’s University of Queensland will begin human trials for a COVID-19 vaccine on 120 subjects keeps the bulls hopeful. Elsewhere, tension among the world’s top two economies continues to escalate as neither of them wants to step back from a showdown. While the US warned its citizens living in China for arbitrary arrests, Beijing cites the Trump administration backed efforts to increase presence in their land to spoil the mood further. However, the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) news that the US has a few options to punish China over the Hong Kong security law, considering the city’s status as a financial hub, tames the risk-off mood. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures attack June month top while taking the bids near 3,189, up .30% on a day. On the other hand, the US 10-year Treasury yields refrain from extending Friday’s optimism while declining to 0.63% as we write. Moving on, the May month Tertiary Industry Index from Japan, prior -6.0% MoM, could offer intermediate direction to the pair amid a light calendar. However, major attention will be given to virus news, US-China tension for fresh impetus. Technical analysis Given the pair’s sustained break of an ascending trend line from May 22, at 74.82 now, sellers can keep attacking 74.00 round-figures.  

GBP/USD drops to 1.2630 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. Even so, the Cable remains positive on a daily basis with around 0.10% gains. Though, a

GBP/USD fails to keep the week-start uptick to 1.2643.A bearish chart formation, MACD signals favor sellers.1.2715 holds the key to the June month top.GBP/USD drops to 1.2630 amid the early Monday morning in Asia. Even so, the Cable remains positive on a daily basis with around 0.10% gains. Though, a bearish chart pattern, the rising wedge, joins bearish MACD signals, question the bulls. As a result, 1.2600 becomes the key for decision making as a downside break of the same will confirm the bearish formation. Also increasing the strength of the support is 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of June month declines from 1.2813 to 1.2251. Even if the pair’s break of 1.2600 opens the door for its southward trajectory towards July 03 low near 1.2440, 200-bar SMA level of 1.2510 could offer intermediate halts during the quote’s declines. Additionally, the GBP/USD bears’ dominance past-1.2440 can aim for June 22 low near 1.2335 and 1.2310 ahead of attacking the previous month’s low near 1.2250. Meanwhile, 1.2690 can offer immediate resistance ahead of the said pattern’s resistance line, currently around 1.2715. It should, however, be noted that the bulls’ ability to cross 1.2715 will not only defy the bearish chart formation but will also challenge June month’s peak surrounding 1.2815. GBP/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

WTI drops to $40.45 during the early Monday morning in Asia. The energy benchmark recently weakened amid hopes of easing the global production cut. Ho

WTI defies the late-Friday recovery moves while slipping from $40.80.Saudi Arabia pushes for two million barrels a day output cut, IEA improves on oil demand forecast.Risk-tone remains mildly positive amid virus woes, US-China tension.WTI drops to $40.45 during the early Monday morning in Asia. The energy benchmark recently weakened amid hopes of easing the global production cut. However, mildly positive trading sentiment joins the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) upbeat forecast to challenge the bears. Saudi Arabia leads the group of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies, known as OPEC+, to convey wishes of output cut citing expected recoveries in global fuel demand. The Arab nation proposes the two million barrels a day output cut to the current 9.7 million barrels a day reduction in the production. The news might have taken clues from the latest IEA demand forecast for 2020. The institute’s July month report said, “the IEA estimates that global oil demand this year will average 92.1 million barrels per day, down by 7.9 million barrels per day versus 2019, a slightly smaller decline than forecast in the last report.” Though, hopes of further stimulus from the US joins the ramping up of the economic activities in Asia, despite the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, helps the bulls to remain optimistic. Also, talks that the much-championed drug Remdesivir gave further positive results during the clinical trials offered additional support to the risk-tone. As a result, the S&P 500 Futures attack June month high while gaining 0.46% to 3,194 as we write. Also, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain positive near 0.64% by the press time. It’s worth mentioning that a light calendar could keep the energy traders look for fresh updates concerning the virus and the US-China tension for near-term direction. Should the risk-on mood defies, which is more likely, the energy benchmark can slip below $40.00 threshold. Technical analysis Unless closing beyond a three-week-old falling trend line, currently near $40.95, energy buyers are less likely to attack the monthly top $41.13. On the contrary, $40.00 and 21-day SMA around $39.70 can restrict the black gold’s short-term downside.  

New Zealand Food Price Index (MoM): 0.5% (June) vs -0.8%

Gold prices take rounds to $1,800, currently around $1,799.40, during the pre-Tokyo open Asian session on Monday. The bullion remains pressured follow

Gold prices fail to keep the late-Friday pullback from $1,794.S&P 500 Futures cheer the hopes of further stimulus.Coronavirus conditions continue to worsen, Sino-American tussle become intensifies.Gold prices take rounds to $1,800, currently around $1,799.40, during the pre-Tokyo open Asian session on Monday. The bullion remains pressured following the two-day losing streak amid mixed clues. Mixed clues challenge traders… The coronavirus (COVID-19) spread and the Sino-American tussle should ideally weigh on the market’s risk-tone sentiment and help the yellow metal to remain strong. However, Friday’s optimism, backed by expectations of further stimulus and virus vaccine news, seems to restrict the safe-haven demand. Global pandemic cases surged over 13 million with the US unfortunately leading the world. The death toll also crossed 565,000 with the World Health Organization (WHO) citing record one-day increase in new cases by 230,370. Even so, Gilead’s comments concerning the much-championed Remdesivir suggesting that it tame the death toll seems to help the markets remain positive. Also supporting the mood could be the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) news suggesting that the Trump administration has a few options to punish China over the Hong Kong security law considering the city’s status as a financial hub. Amid all these catalysts, S&P 500 Futures print 0.50% gains to 3,195 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields stay positive around 0.64%. Traders should keep following the virus updates, as well as news concerning the US-China tussle for near-term market direction. Technical analysis An ascending trend line from the early-June, currently around $1,793, restricts the bullion’s immediate downside. As a result, bulls can keep the reins and aim for a fresh record above the recently flashed $1,818.  

NZD/USD is trading at 0.6577 and up at the start of the week, edging higher by 0.15% at the highs of 0.6578. The move adds to the closing on Friday wh

NZD/USD bulls in charge ahead of a busy week on Wall Street.Correlations to asset markets will remain important for the kiwi with a firm eye on COVID-19 contagion. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6577 and up at the start of the week, edging higher by 0.15% at the highs of 0.6578.  The move adds to the closing on Friday where the price was around 20pips higher than Asia's Friday closing prices. There remains a correlation to US equities and bonds, but Friday was rather subdued, although there was some news of progress towards a vaccine which lifted spirits and kept risk assets underpinned. "Reiterating past comments, we do not expect the NZD to carve out its own niche until we see structural changes, which is where the RBNZ suggestion that it might start foreign asset purchases comes in, possibly in August," analysts at RBNZ explained.  Until then (or something really big comes along) we will blindly follow global risk sentiment, which seems to have the energy of a perpetual motion machine. COVID-19 cases numbers are rapidly rising Countries with large populations are facing second waves or an increase of the first wave.  "The US still has the largest number of confirmed cases at nearly 3.1 million followed by Brazil (1.8m), India (820,900) and Russia (720,500)," the analysts t ANZ noted. There are now more than 12.4 million cases of COVID-19 confirmed globally with this number doubling in the past six weeks indicating the pandemic is still accelerating. Nearly 1% of the US population have been infected with COVID-19. The number of deaths globally now stands at 559,047. The death rate has stabilised as more cases are diagnosed earlier, isolation facilities are better managed, and more successful treatment options are identified. Week ahead It's earnings week and the banks will be in focus. Markets will pay a particular attention to their guidance as a means to help evaluate the sentiment going forward.  More on this here:S&P 500 Index Forecast: Bank's earnings in focus, COVID-19 induced insolvency fears simmer awayCorrelations across asset classes will remain high and global themes will remain dominant. The relations between the US and China could also kick in at some stage: US warns its citizens in China they risk ‘arbitrary’ arrest NZD/USD levels  

Weekend headlines suggest that the global oil producers are considering stepping back from their output cut accords, currently around 9.7 million barr

Weekend headlines suggest that the global oil producers are considering stepping back from their output cut accords, currently around 9.7 million barrels a day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies, known as OPEC+, get the latest push from Saudi Arabia to reduce the output by around 2 million barrels a day. Key quotes In April, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, led a push that saw the 23-producer group cut its collective output by 9.7 million barrels a day, as the pandemic led to a collapse of oil demand. Now Saudi Arabia and most participants in the coalition support a loosening of the curbs, the delegates said. Under a Saudi proposal, the so-called OPEC Plus coalition would relax its current curbs by 2 million barrels a day to 7.7 million barrels a day, the delegates said. Market reaction With the OPEC meeting on the cards during this week, the news exerts downside pressure on the oil benchmark. Though, WTI is yet to respond amid early Asian markets and seesaws around $40.50 as we write.

AUD/USD remains pressured around 0.6950 at the start of the week’s trading on Monday. The aussie pair began the day with a gap-down of over 50 pips fr

AUD/USD begins the week with a downside gap of nearly 40 pips to 0.6950.Worsening coronavirus conditions in Australia and abroad hurt market sentiment.Sino-American tension escalates with the US warning citizen of arbitrary arrests in China.Virus, China updates remain as market drivers amid a light calendar.AUD/USD remains pressured around 0.6950 at the start of the week’s trading on Monday. The aussie pair began the day with a gap-down of over 50 pips from Friday’s closing near 0.6990. With this, the quote marks further easing from the one-month top above 0.7000 flashed on Thursday. Increasing numbers of the coronavirus (COVID-19) joins further tension between the US and China to exert the latest downside pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, news that the Trump administration has a few options to punish Beijing, over the Hong Kong security law, puts a floor under the pair. COVID-19 refrains from easing and so does Sino-American tussle… In its latest updates, per Reuters, the World Health Organization (WHO) announces the record high daily new cases of the pandemic on Sunday. The Global institute reports the numbers rose by 230,370 with around 5,000 a day death toll due to the deadly virus. The figures broke Friday’s record of 228,102. Global figures cross over 13 million with more than 565,000 people killed in the last seven months by the virus, per Reuters’ tally. The US leads the run, unfortunately, while Brazil and India following the suit. The latest figures from Florida suggest over 15,000 new cases on Sunday amid further push for schools re-open and anti-mask protests. At home, virus conditions in Victoria continue to get worse with the weekly count of 273. Further, cases from New South Wales, (NSW) include nine cases from the outbreak at the Sydney pub. It should also be noted that the Aussie government hardened state-border restrictions and stepped back on easing the lockdown restrictions during the last week. Other than the virus, fears of a full-fledged war among the world’s top two economies also weigh on the market mood. In the latest update, the Trump administration followed the footsteps of Aussie policymakers while warning their citizens living in China of arbitrary arrest. Additionally, the US government is also in the process of announcing additional punitive measures in Beijing due to the Hong Kong security law. Though, news that the Trump administration has a few options, considering Hong Kong’s financial status, per the Wall Street Journal, battle risk-off sentiment. It should be noted that the talks of a virus vaccine getting positive results helped marked shrug off the fears of the resurgence during the late last week. Also building the mood were hopes of further stimulus from the US amid downbeat Producer Price Index (PPI), also backed by the comments from the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events keep the markets looking for more updates on the COVID-19 and the Sino-American tension for fresh impulse. Technical analysis While 0.7000 becomes immediate upside barrier, sellers might not risk-taking bigger positions unless witnessing a break of the month-old support line, currently around 0.6890.  
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