Forex News Timeline

WTI fails to holds onto the previous day’s losses.API marked another huge increase in inventories, oil stocks at the Cushing registered historical jump.Expectations of macro production cut at this week’s OPEC+ meeting gain ground.EIA, virus updates will be important to watch for near-term direction.WTI bounces off $23.95 to currently around $24.40, as per NYMEX, during Wednesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the black gold ignores a huge build in inventories as suggested by the private industry data provider the American Petroleum Institute (API). The reason could be traced from the recently renewed hopes of the extended global production cuts in this week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, mostly known as OPEC+. Stockpiles fail to please the bears… The API’s weekly Crude Oil Stock report, for the period ended on April 03, suggested an increase of 11.938 million barrels of increase into the inventories versus the previous addition of 10.485 million barrels. Also on the price-negative side could be stockpile data from the Cushing, Oklahoma, which mentions the largest jump, of 6.8 million barrels, for the same period. Even so, the energy benchmark bounced off during the post-settlement period amid recently rising calls of a production cut at the Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. Bloomberg cited US President Donald Trump’s previous day comments concerning the “automatic” reduction in domestic output as a precursor of a macro move. “A deal hinges on some form of cooperation with America, according to delegates involved in the talks. The production drop forecast by the U.S. government on Tuesday could be enough to satisfy Saudi Arabia and Russia,” said the news from Bloomberg. It’s worth mentioning that the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut oil production expectations by near 10% to an average of 11.8 million barrels a day during 2020. Looking forward, investors will keep eyes on the stories surrounding this week’s OPEC+ meeting while the official inventory data from the EIA, expected 10.133M versus 13.834M prior, could also offer intermediate clues. Technical analysis While 21-day SMA near $27.20 holds the key to Friday’s high around $28.80, sellers will wait for a downside break of $23.00 for fresh entry.

For AUD bulls, could be a little too soon to be calling a victory.AUD/NZD vulnerable to a sizeable correction despite RBA's optimism.AUD/NZD is consolidating the Reserve Bank of Australia QE 'taper' surge around 1.0332 at the time of writing having travelled from a pre-RBA area at around 1.0250 to a post-meeting high of 100 pips higher. The Aussie has released a lot of pent-up tension in these recent days for the month of April taking AUD/USD right the way back to the 0.62 handle and its prior corrective highs while the NZD still has some work to do, potentially weighing on the cross.  While there was no surprise that the Reserve Bank Board confirmed its commitment to holding the target cash rate and the three-year bond rate at 0.25%, the  Statement indicated that the RBA assesses that the policies have been successful while pointing out that the central bank's objective has been achieved by purchasing $36 billion of government and semi-government bonds. This leads the markets to believe that tapering would be on the way and sent the AUD on a rampage.  Meanwhile, it was another rollercoaster ride in both the equities and commodity markets overnight as investors weighed up slowing rates of new coronavirus cases against the ongoing economic impact. More on that here: Wall Street Close: US stock traders taken for a ride, benchmarks end in a sea of red. For commodities, analysts at ANZ Bank said that the ANZ China Commodity Index eked out a small gain, rising 0.2%: "Industrial metals were the best performing sector, driven by a sharp rise in copper and nickel. The bulk commodity sector was up, as iron ore and coking coal rose. Energy saw another sell-off in crude oil. Agriculture was weaker. Crude oil prices fell on doubts about the ability of oil producers to reach agreement on production cuts." "Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to hammer out a deal. Reports suggest they are focused on a three-month cut to output, although volumes have not been discussed. What is clear is that the US must be involved. President Trump said he hasn’t been approached by OPEC yet. But following his meeting with oil executives over the weekend, the likelihood of them agreeing to a voluntary cut to output looks unlikely." Too soon to call a victory? While the RBA was upbeat, it could be a little too soon to be calling a victory and that leaves the AUD vulnerable given its close proximity to world trade in commodities. "We expect that the Australian economy will contract by 8.5% in the June quarter with the unemployment rate peaking at 9%. Without the JobKeepers Payment the unemployment rate would have reached 17% in the June quarter," analysts at Westpac explained.  AUD/NZD levels  

Gold steps back from the short-term resistance line.A one-week-old support line in the immediate focus of the sellers.200-bar SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement offers strong support.An upside break of resistance trend line could question March high beyond $1,700.Gold prices take a U-turn from the near-term resistance trend line, stretched from March 12, while declining to $1,648 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. With the MACD also teasing bears, the bullion may drop further towards re-testing the immediate support line, around $1,639. Though, the metal’s additional weakness past-$1,639 could be restricted by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March month declines and 200-bar SMA around $1,605/07. Alternatively, a clear break beyond $1,675 resistance line could renew buying strength towards challenging the previous month high near $1,703. Gold four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/JPY seesaws around the previous day’s low.Market’s risk-on sentiment paused following fresh virus numbers.US policymakers remain optimistic, show readiness to act.Japan Machinery Orders, Eco Watchers Survey may offer immediate direction.Despite staying under pressure around 108.75, following the first in four-day declines, USD/JPY struggles for a firm direction amid the early Asian morning on Wednesday. The pair earlier portrayed the broad US dollar weakness, amid risk-on, but seems to bear the burden of fresh challenges to the risks off-late. Although weekend coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers from the global hotspots raised an early hope of recovery from the pandemic, fresh figures from the US, Spain and the UK renewed fears of the deadly disease on late-Tuesday. New York and the UK mark all-time high death toll, 731 and 786 respectively, whereas Spain bucked the previous four-day losing streak in cases and death toll while flashing a 4% rise in new cases and 743 death toll. Also weighing on the risk sentiment could be Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s emergency for six provinces, including Tokyo, as well as the latest cautiously optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump. Amid all this, the US 10-year treasury yields trim some of their earlier gains to 0.726% by the end of Tuesday whereas US S&P 500 Futures begin Wednesday’s quote in red after Wall Street’s losses. Moving on, the yen pair traders will keep eyes on February month Machinery Orders and March month Eco Watchers Survey data for fresh impetus. Though, the latest challenges to the risk could renew the US dollar strength and buck the previous declines. Technical analysis A horizontal region including multiple tops and bottoms since late-February, around 109.65/70, guards the pair’s near-term advances. On the downside, 21-day SMA near 108.45 can restrict immediate declines.  

During his routing daily Coronavirus Task Force Briefings, US President Donald Trump struck cautiously optimistic statements while seeing glimmers of hope and citing the progress on anti-corona vaccine. Key quotes US being hit hard by coronavirus right now. See glimmers of hope despite very painful week. We’re working quickly to find an anti-corona vaccine and it may take a while. FX implications Following the latest step back in the market’s risk-on sentiment, measured comments from US President offered additional reason to worry for the traders. Though, early-Asian trading hours restricted the reaction to the news.

AUD/USD fails to cross the March-end top, witnessed profit-booking.RBA’s upbeat statement, signals for scaling back the support joined risk-on earlier.Updates from Japan, New York question the early hopes of receding coronavirus fears.Aussie housing finance data can offer intermediate direction, virus updates remain as the key.AUD/USD extends the recent pullback from one-week high while declining to 0.6170 at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair earlier cheered broad US dollar weakness amid risk-on but failed to hold onto gains. Early hopes faded… While a mild weakness in the coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers from the global hotspots raised early hopes, the recent updates from New York, suggesting all-time daily high, preceded by negative signals from Japan, checked the optimists. Globally, the number of confirmed cases surged past-1.38 million with the death toll crossing 78,000, as per the data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University. Concerning the US, there are more than 370,500 confirmed cases and more than 11,000 deaths while New York marked the highest death toll of 731. In Japan, PM Shinzo Abe announced an emergency in seven provinces including Tokyo while touting a huge, nearly 20% of GDP, economic package to combat the disease. The numbers from the UK followed the footsteps of New York, with a surge in the death toll to record high by 786, while figures from Spain also bucked the previous four-day losing streak in cases and death toll. Policy measures still on the cards… While the RBA announced no rate cut, as expected, with an upbeat tone and signals to scale back the huge stimulus if needed, which is less likely, the US policymakers recently offered hints of loans to small businesses. Also on the cards are the second round of aid packages, as suggested on Tuesday by US President Donald Trump and the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Amid all this, the market’s risk-tone seems to fade the earlier strength with the Wall Street benchmarks closed in the sea of red whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also trimming the gains to 0.726%. Going forward, investors will pay close attention to February month Aussie Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes, up for publishing at 00:30 and 01:30 GMT respectively, for intermediate clues. However, the broad direction will be guided by the virus updates. Technical analysis Despite closing beyond a 21-day SMA level of 0.6075, the quote is yet to close the March 31 high near 0.6215 that holds the key for further upside towards 0.6300 and mid-March month high near 0.6330.