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Forex News Timeline

Monday, October 19, 2020

The EUR/USD pair is up this Monday, approaching the 1.1800 area, as hopes for a US coronavirus stimulus package is weighing on the dollar. The pair is

The EUR/USD pair is up this Monday, approaching the 1.1800 area, as hopes for a US coronavirus stimulus package is weighing on the dollar. The pair is bullish in the near-term, as FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes, and could extend the rise on a break above the mentioned 1.18 mark.  Key quotes “The greenback is being pressured by mounting hopes about a US stimulus package and encouraging Chinese data published at the beginning of the day. US representatives are working on some fiscal aid although it’s still unclear whether they will be able to clinch a deal. As per China, it reported Q3 GDP at 4.9% slightly below the 5.2% expected but above the previous 3.2%.” “EUR/USD is bullish in the short-term, as, in the 4-hour chart, technical indicators firmly advance above their midlines. Also, the pair has advanced above all of its moving averages, which anyway lack directional strength.  “The 1.1800/10 area is the immediate resistance that the EUR/USD pair needs to surpass to confirm further gains in the upcoming sessions.”  

President Trump is trailing Biden by a wide margin but skeptics point to 2016. Nonetheless, there are seven reasons why this time is different, accord

President Trump is trailing Biden by a wide margin but skeptics point to 2016. Nonetheless, there are seven reasons why this time is different, according to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam. The Senate race is much closer and could be more consequential for markets.  More: US Elections: President Trump victory with a split Congress, the most positive outcome for financial markets – HSBC US Elections: Blue Wave to extend USD decline and equities rally – Westpac Key quotes “Bigger gap: According to the RealClearPolitics, former Vice-President Joe Biden leads the president by 9% nationally and has consistently had a larger lead than Clinton's. The gap stands at 3.4% as of mid-October.” “Fewer undecideds: Back in 2016, support for Clinton peaked below 47%. This time, backing for Biden has been above 50% with fewer undecideds. There are fewer people that could break toward Trump.” “Poll mistakes go both ways: It is easier to compare to 2016, when the president shocked the world with a victory but looking back into history shows that surveys can miss in both directions. Back in 2012, surveys underestimated President Barack Obama by around 4% on the national levels and state polls missed Democratic support as well. Accounting for a 2012-style miss, Biden has an even larger advantage.” “Pollsters have learned: Firms that survey public opinion need to defend their reputation toward the next elections and to rake in income from commercial firms. They would not want to repeat the exact same mistakes – and may even overcompensate and underestimate a potential Biden landslide.” “Gap between states and national vote smaller this time: Not even the most ardent Trump backers believe he can win the popular vote, but build their hopes on an electoral college victory.”  “No shy Trump voters: Trump backers are not shy, there are just small quantities of them. The base is too small and Trump has failed to pivot to the center and enlarge his support.” “October surprise? Trump and Biden are set to meet in the second and final debate on October 22, and that is probably the president's best chance to win back support. Can something like the Comey letter happen again? Anything is possible, but so far, nothing has stuck to Biden.”  

The GBP/USD pair added to its strong intraday gains and refreshed daily tops, around the 1.3025 region during the early North American session. Given

GBP/USD caught some aggressive bids on Monday and surged past the 1.3000 psychological mark.The technical set-up favours bullish traders, though warrant some caution before placing fresh bets.Sustained move beyond a one-week-old descending trend-line needed to confirm any further gains.The GBP/USD pair added to its strong intraday gains and refreshed daily tops, around the 1.3025 region during the early North American session. Given that the pair last week attracted some dip-buying near the 1.2865-60 horizontal zone, a sustained move beyond the 200-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart was seen a key trigger for bullish traders. The strong intraday positive momentum was further supported by bullish oscillators on hourly charts. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have just started moving into the positive territory, albeit are yet to gain any meaningful traction. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond a one-week-old descending trend-line resistance before positioning for any further appreciating move. The mentioned hurdle is pegged near the 1.3025-30 region, above which bulls are likely to aim back towards monthly swing highs, around the 1.3080 supply zone. The momentum could then push the GBP/USD pair further beyond the 1.3100 mark, towards testing the next major hurdle near the 1.3160 horizontal zone. On the flip side, the 1.2940 region (200-period SMA) now seems to protect the immediate downside. failure to defend the mentioned support might prompt some technical selling and turn the pair vulnerable to slide back to test sub-1.2900 level. That said any subsequent fall might still find decent support near the 1.2865-60 region. GBP/USD 4-hourly chart Technical levels to watch  

The selling bias around the greenback stays well and sound and drags the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 93.20 region, or new 4-day lows. US Dollar Index

DXY remains depressed in multi-day lows near 93.20.Stimulus hopes keep weighing on the dollar on Monday.The NAHB Index improved further to 85 in October (from 83).The selling bias around the greenback stays well and sound and drags the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 93.20 region, or new 4-day lows. US Dollar Index offered on politics The index adds to Friday’s decline and drops to multi-day lows in the 93.20 region on Monday, managing to regain some composure soon afterwards. The moderate pullback in the dollar comes amidst rising speculations that a new stimulus bill could be further discussed later in the week. It is worth recalling that Trump’s proposal last week came in significantly short of expectations, opening the door to further political uncertainty and extra wings to the buck. In the US data space, the NAHB Index surpassed consensus in October at 85 (from 83) and reached a fresh record high. Nothing worth mentioning from Powell’s discussion panel on digital currencies earlier in the session, while FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish), New York Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist), Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (2021 voter, centrist) and Philly Fed P.Harker (voter, hawkish) are all due to speak later. What to look for around USD The index met solid contention in the 93.00 region so far this month. Occasional bullish attempts, however, are seen as temporary, as the underlying sentiment towards the greenback remains cautious. This view is reinforced by the “lower for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve, hopes of a strong recovery in the global economy and rising bets of a “blue wave” win at the presidential elections. Developments around another US stimulus package also collaborate with the vigilant stance around the buck. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is losing 0.41% at 93.34 and faces immediate contention at 93.01 (monthly low Oct.12) followed by 92.70 (weekly low Sep.10) and then 91.92 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop). On the other hand, a break above 94.20 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) would aim for 94.74 (monthly high Sep.25) and finally 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop).

United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 85, above expectations (83) in October

Having hit a high in the 1.2011 area in early September, EUR/USD subsequently moved into a lower trading band and the pair has been bearish since then

Having hit a high in the 1.2011 area in early September, EUR/USD subsequently moved into a lower trading band and the pair has been bearish since then. Economists at Rabobank forecast EUR/USD at 1.17 on a one-month view followed by 1.16 on a three-month view.  Key quotes “From a technical perspective, the price action in EUR/USD has been bearish since September when a break below the key trendline occurred. Technicals also suggest that a strong rebound above this trendline – currently at around 1.1840 – is required to undermine the notion of the wave V below the September 25 low at 1.1612 unfolding in the coming weeks. In our view, fundamentals are also lining up to take EUR/USD towards 1.16 on a three-month view.” “The second wave of COVID-19 is undermining forecasts regarding the strength of the region’s economic recovery. Already there are delays about the distribution of the EU’s Recovery Fund and any fresh demands for fiscal funds could trigger fresh debates about fiscal support. Against this backdrop, various ECB officials have been keen to air their dovish outlooks which has been preparing the market for more monetary policy action in the coming months.”  

Gold spiked to multi-day tops, around the $1918 region during the early North American session, albeit quickly retreated around $10 thereafter. The pr

Gold regained positive traction on Monday amid some heavy selling around the USD.The risk-on mood, surging US bond yields kept a lid on any strong positive momentum.Gold spiked to multi-day tops, around the $1918 region during the early North American session, albeit quickly retreated around $10 thereafter. The precious metal managed to regain some positive traction on the first day of a new trading week and built on last week's rebound from the $1882 region. The uptick marked the third day of a positive move in the previous four and was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar, which tends to benefit the dollar-denominated commodity. However, the upbeat market mood – as depicted by a positive opening in the US equity markets – undermined demand for traditional safe-haven assets and kept a lid on any strong gains for the XAU/USD. The global risk sentiment was supported by reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus and expectations of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of this year. The risk-on mood was reinforced by a strong intraday upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields, which further collaborated towards capping gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD has still managed to hold with modest daily gains and was last seen trading just below the $1910 region. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases from the US, the broader market risk sentiment will influence the safe-haven demand for the XAU/USD. This, along with the USD price dynamics might further assist traders to grab some meaningful opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

The return of no-deal headlines has put GBP under renewed pressure. The base case for an eventual deal supports a moderate recovery for sterling over

The return of no-deal headlines has put GBP under renewed pressure. The base case for an eventual deal supports a moderate recovery for sterling over the medium term, but economists at TD Securities expect cable to remain driven more by the USD leg overall. A no-deal surprise would naturally see a knee-jerk GBP sell-off but this may remain somewhat contained, however, as a lot of bad news is now in the price and the UK has larger problems on its hands.  Key quotes “We are wondering whether a good portion of the challenges Brexit poses for sterling may now be priced. Now, to be clear, we think the shock value of failing to reach a deal by the end of the year will see GBP weaken — and probably sharply at that. We are no longer as confident, however, in stating it will stay that way.” “Ultimately, the UK has bigger problems on its hands. The UK is among the hardest-hit of the major economies by the pandemic. The current second wave presents additional challenges that still need to play out. This is likely to be a much bigger factor for sterling next year than Brexit.” “We continue to target a move up in GBP/USD to 1.35 for year-end and forecast of 1.38 for 2021-Q4. Within this, we note that we expect USD depreciation to be the primary factor. Indeed, our forecasts imply a path for EUR/GBP that stays mostly in the 0.90/91 range over our horizon.”  

S&P 500 is holding support from the ‘neckline’ to its ‘head & shoulders’ base at 3447/28 and the Credit Suisse analyst team bias remains to view weakn

S&P 500 is holding support from the ‘neckline’ to its ‘head & shoulders’ base at 3447/28 and the Credit Suisse analyst team bias remains to view weakness as corrective ahead of an eventual challenge on the 3588 record high.  Key quotes “The S&P 500 continues to hold above support from the ‘neckline’ to its base and the rising 13-day exponential average at 3447/28 and we continue to look for a floor above this zone and for the uptrend to resume.”  “Resistance remains at 3528, above which is needed to suggest the pullback is over for strength back to 3550, above which can see resistance at 3565 next and eventually the 3588/92 high, which is also the upper end of its ‘typical’ extreme (15% above the 200-day average). Whilst this should clearly be respected, we look for a break in due course, with the “measured base objective” at 3653.”  “Below 3447/18 would throw a serious question mark over the base, with support seen at 3396 next.”  

The USD/CAD pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early North American session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily

USD/CAD witnessed some selling for the second consecutive session on Monday.The upbeat market mood, US political uncertainties weighed on the safe-haven USD.Softer oil prices undermined the loonie and might help limit deeper losses, for now.The USD/CAD pair traded with a mild negative bias through the early North American session and was last seen hovering near the lower end of its daily range, around the 1.3165-75 region. The pair added to the previous session's losses and remained depressed for the second consecutive session on Monday. The downtick was exclusively sponsored by some renewed US dollar selling, albeit the downside remains cushioned amid a softer tone surrounding oil prices. Reviving hopes of a US fiscal stimulus package, along with expectations of a vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease by the end of this year triggered a strong risk-on rally in the equity markets. This, in turn, dented the greenback's relative safe-haven status. It is worth recalling that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that differences remained with the US President Donald Trump's administration on a wide-ranging coronavirus aid package. She, however, was optimistic that legislation could be pushed through before the Election Day. Apart from this, the uncertain US political situation further weighed on the greenback. With about two weeks left until the November 3 presidential election, Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden will debate for a final time on Thursday, which might infuse some volatility in the market. Meanwhile, a strong rally in the US Treasury bond yields failed to impress the USD bulls or provide any meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair. However, a modest pullback in oil prices undermined the commodity-linked currency – the loonie – and might help limit deeper losses, at least for now. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release of Monday. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before traders again start positioning for the resumption of the USD/CAD pair's recent downward trajectory from levels beyond the 1.3400 mark. Technical levels to watch  

The European currency and its risk-associated peers trade on a better mood and pushes EUR/USD to the proximity of the 1.18 barrier. EUR/USD underpinne

EUR/USD extends the upside to the boundaries of 1.1800.Market chatter on US stimulus package gives legs to the pair.Fed’s Powell participates in a discussion panel on digital currencies.The European currency and its risk-associated peers trade on a better mood and pushes EUR/USD to the proximity of the 1.18 barrier. EUR/USD underpinned by risk appetite EUR/USD has managed to test the area of 1.1790, an interim hurdle where sits the 55-day SMA, although the upside momentum lost some vigour on Monday. In the meantime, renewed hopes of another package of US fiscal stimulus have been sustaining the improved sentiment in the risk complex, pushing high-beta currencies, stocks and yields higher at the beginning of the week. On another front, ECB Chief C.Lagarde said earlier in the session that climate change is expected to affect monetary policy in the future, while VP L. De Guindos said the economic recovery seems to be losing some traction. Nothing relevant from Powell’s discussion on digital currencies other than the Fed has not made a decision on the issue. Later in the week, the release of advanced PMIs in the region is forecasted to grab all the attention. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD extends the bounce off last week’s lows in the 1.1690/85 band. The outlook on EUR/USD still remains constructive, however, and bearish moves are deemed as corrective only. Further out, the positive bias in the euro remains underpinned by auspicious results from domestic fundamentals (despite momentum appears somewhat mitigated in several regions), the so far cautious stance from the ECB and the solid position of the EMU’s current account. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.58% at 1.1781 and a breakout of 1.1830 (monthly high Oct.9) would target 1.1917 (high Sep.10) en route to 1.1965 (monthly high Aug.18). On the other hand, the next support is located at 1.1688 (monthly low Ot.15) followed by 1.1612 (monthly low Sep.25) and finally 1.1495 (monthly high Mar.9).

The intraday USD selling bias picked up pace during the mid-European session and dragged the USD/JPY pair to daily lows, around the 105.30 region in t

The emergence of fresh selling around the USD exerted some pressure on USD/JPY.The risk-on mood, surging US bond yields might help limit losses, for the time being.The intraday USD selling bias picked up pace during the mid-European session and dragged the USD/JPY pair to daily lows, around the 105.30 region in the last hour. The pair failed to capitalize on its early uptick to three-day tops and witnessed a modest pullback from mid-105.00s amid the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar. Expectations of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of this year dented the greenback's status as the global reserve currency, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair. However, the downside remains cushioned amid the upbeat market mood, which tends to undermine demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen. The global risk sentiment got a strong boost on the back of reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus measures. The risk-on flow was evident from a strong rally in the US Treasury bond yields, which might help limit deeper losses for the USD/JPY pair.  Nevertheless, the pair has now drifted into the negative territory for the second straight session and remains at the mercy of the USD price dynamics/broader market risk sentiment amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. From a technical perspective, the emergence of some dip-buying on Friday favours bullish traders. However, the lack of any strong follow-through warrants some caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. On the flip side, bearish traders might still wait for a sustained weakness below the key 105.00 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in August: Actual (0.3%)

The US Election season is now well underway, with Congressional and Presidential elections set for November 3. Strategists at HSBC believe there are t

The US Election season is now well underway, with Congressional and Presidential elections set for November 3. Strategists at HSBC believe there are three possible outcomes and analyze the investment implications of each scenario. The fourth, a Republican sweep, is considered highly unlikely as Democrats are expected to keep control of the House.  Key quotes “Status quo: Victory for President Trump, with a split Congress. In this scenario, everything remains the same. This would be the most positive outcome for financial markets, simply because it provides the most continuity and clarity around policy.” “A Biden victory with a split Congress. Expect a small negative impact for markets short-term. Biden is an advocate for higher taxes and greater regulation of key sectors like technology so markets may react negatively immediately. But fiscal stimulus may also increase, boosting the economy and helping markets recover. Moreover, if Republicans keep control of the Senate, many of Biden’s current proposals may not be approved by Congress. This ‘gridlock’ could ironically be good for markets in the months following the US Elections since Biden’s planned changes to the tax and regulatory environment would be more restricted and markets can focus instead on a strengthening economy supported by fiscal and monetary measures.” “Democratic Clean Sweep: a Biden Presidency with a Democrat-controlled Congress. This would initially be negative for financial markets, but they could soon rebound (after an initial bout of volatility) if spending is raised to stimulate the economy.” “Trump victory: positive for US domestic stocks, the energy sector and high yield bonds.” “Biden victory: positive for European stocks and green investment themes.”  “Technology stocks: we are optimistic about tech stocks in either scenario. Even with a Biden victory, we think regulation will take time to materialise, while the accelerated digital adoption among businesses and consumers continues to make technology companies attractive. Overall, tech stocks have been volatile in recent weeks but we see recent profit-taking as temporary.”  

EUR/USD trades at shouting distance from the key barrier at 1.18 the figure following a recent drop to the 1.1690/80 band, where some solid contention

EUR/USD regains buying interest in the vicinity of 1.1700.Extra gains now target the area of recent peaks around 1.1830.EUR/USD trades at shouting distance from the key barrier at 1.18 the figure following a recent drop to the 1.1690/80 band, where some solid contention seems to have turned up. If the buying impetus picks up pace, then the pair should look to the minor hurdle at the 55-day SMA (1.1795) ahead of the more relevant resistance in monthly tops at 1.1830 (October 9). Looking at the broader scenario, the bullish view on EUR/USD is expected to remain unchanged as long as the pair trades above the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1283. EUR/USD daily chart  

Following another failure at the tough 6-month resistance line in the 93.80/90 band, DXY sparks a correction lower to the 93.20 region so far, or new

DXY rapidly loses momentum and drops to multi-day lows.The next support of note comes in around the 93.00 yardstick.Following another failure at the tough 6-month resistance line in the 93.80/90 band, DXY sparks a correction lower to the 93.20 region so far, or new 4-day lows. A deeper pullback now threatens to drag the dollar to the area of recent contention in the 93.00 neighbourhood. Further south emerges the mid-September lows in the 92.70 region. While below the 200-day SMA, today at 96.82, the negative view on the dollar is expected to persist. DXY daily chart  

The USD/CHF pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and dropped to four-day lows in the last hour, with bears now looking to ext

USD/CHF witnessed a dramatic turnaround from the 0.9160-65 heady supply zone.The emergence of some fresh USD selling was seen exerting pressure on the major.The risk-on mood-led upsurge in the US bond yields failed to impress the USD bulls.The USD/CHF pair continued losing ground through the mid-European session and dropped to four-day lows in the last hour, with bears now looking to extend the momentum further below the 0.9100 mark. The pair continued with its struggle to break through the 0.9160-65 supply zone and witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround from one-week tops on the first day of a new trading week. The pullback was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of some fresh US dollar selling and failed to gain any respite from the prevalent risk-on mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Swiss franc. The USD failed to capitalize on last week's gains of around 0.7%, instead witnessed some heavy selling on the back of the US political uncertainty and was seen as one of the key factors that prompted some aggressive long-unwinding trade around the USD/CHF pair. Even a strong intraday rally in the US Treasury bond yields did little to impress the USD bulls or lend any support to the major. Meanwhile, reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus package, along with expectations of a vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease by the end of this year boosted investors' confidence. This, in turn, was evident from a rally in the equity markets, albeit failed to ease the intraday bearish pressure surrounding the USD/CHF pair. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday. Hence, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as an exclusive driver of the USD/CHF pair's momentum. However, the risk-on flow might extend some support and help limit deeper losses, warranting some caution for bearish traders or positioning for any further depreciating move. Technical levels to watch  

The USD/JPY pair trades lower in range this Monday, as a better market mood plays against the greenback, but also means absent demand for the Japanese

The USD/JPY pair trades lower in range this Monday, as a better market mood plays against the greenback, but also means absent demand for the Japanese currency. Dollar/yen is neutral in the near-term and needs to leave the 105.00/80 range to show signs of life, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports.  Key quotes “Speculative interest continues to focus on a US stimulus package and other pandemic developments. US President Donald Trump has expressed its willingness for a larger stimulus package, although he still has to convince hard-line Republicans. Meanwhile, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi set a  48-hour deadline for US stimulus talks in a last-ditch effort to clinch a deal before the election.” “Japan published the September Merchandise Trade Balance Total, which posted a surplus ¥675 B, below the expected ¥989.8 B but above the previous ¥248.6 B. Imports decreased by 17.2%, while exports were down by 4.9%. Also, China published the Q3 Gross Domestic Product. The report showed a 4.9% growth in the three months to September, below the 5.2% expected but better than the previous 3.2% Industrial Production and Retail Sales in the country improved by more than anticipated. The US won’t publish relevant data, but Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell is due to offer a speech.” “USD/JPY is neutral in the short-term, as it has been hovering around 105.40 for over two weeks. In the 4-hour chart, the pair is above the 20 SMA but below the larger ones, which converge around 105.55. The range is defined by 105.00 to the downside and 105.80 to the upside. The pair needs to clear one of those two levels to return to life.”  

Poland is at war with the coronavirus and, therefore, economists at Rabobank do not expect the EUR/PLN pair to push lower. The cross is trading just a

Poland is at war with the coronavirus and, therefore, economists at Rabobank do not expect the EUR/PLN pair to push lower. The cross is trading just above 4.55 while the September high at 4.5970 is the key to watch.  Key quotes “If Poles become seriously concerned about their health and impose their own much stringent restrictions on social distancing than the official measures, the second wave may have a similar negative impact on private consumption the first wave had in spring. In fact, it could be worse if death toll rises sharply and sentiment deteriorates significantly.”  “We remain of the view that it is too early to expect EUR/PLN to start trending lower as the shortterm outlook has deteriorated. The September high at 4.5970 is the key level to watch ahead of the March top at 4.6342.” “It is also worth noting that remarks from Finance Minister Koscinski imply that the government has a higher tolerance for a weaker currency. Koscinski said that a weaker zloty is a boost for Polish exporters. When Poland’s main trading partners located in Europe are at war with the virus as well, a softer zloty is unlikely to stimulate exports substantially in the short-term.”  “We are of the view that over the mid-term horizon Poland would benefit from an undervalued currency to gain a competitive advantage over other countries from the region. The CEE region has an opportunity to increase its share in global trade by attracting companies who may be keen to protect against supply chain disruptions by on-shoring back to Europe.”  

EUR/JPY bounces sharply and regains buying interest on the back of the improvement in the risk complex. If the buying pressure gathers extra traction,

EUR/JPY moves to multi-day highs and flirts with 124.00.Next of relevance on the upside emerges the 125.00 level.EUR/JPY bounces sharply and regains buying interest on the back of the improvement in the risk complex. If the buying pressure gathers extra traction, then the cross is expected to meet the next relevant barrier around monthly tops in the 125.00 neighbourhood (October 9). In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at1 121.07,  the outlook on the cross is expected to remain constructive. EUR/JPY daily chart  

USD/CNH is forecasted to test the 6.6710 level in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24- hour view: “The sudden and sharp s

USD/CNH is forecasted to test the 6.6710 level in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24- hour view: “The sudden and sharp sell-off in USD that sent it plummeting to a low of 6.6872 came as a surprise. While oversold, the decline has scope to extend lower but for today, any weakness is likely limited to a test of the month-to-date low of 6.6788 (minor support is at 6.6850). On the upside, a break of 6.7120 (minor resistance is at 6.7050) would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.” Next 1-3 weeks: “After trading in a quiet manner for a couple of days, USD lurched lower on Friday (16 Oct) and came close to the bottom of our expected consolidation range of 6.6850/6.7850 (low of 6.6872). While downward momentum is beginning to improve, the recent weakness in USD has yet to fully unwind from oversold conditions. That said, short-term downward has improved and USD is likely to trade with a downward bias towards the major support to 6.6710. Overall, USD is deemed to be under pressure unless it can move above 6.7300 (‘strong resistance’ level).”

Sterling is indifferent for now as Brexit talks head into crunch period. The pound is holding its ground with cable trading above the 1.2900-level and

Sterling is indifferent for now as Brexit talks head into crunch period. The pound is holding its ground with cable trading above the 1.2900-level and EUR/GBP below the 0.9100-level. The lack of pound movement is somewhat surprising considering that Brexit trade negotiations have deteriorated following last week’s EU Summit, economists at MUFG Bank brief.  Key quotes “The lack of pound weakness strongly suggests that market participants continue to believe that a trade deal will be reached and are not overly concerned by the latest political posturing. Michael Barnier and David Frost are expected to seek a way out of the latest Brexit impasse when they meet today.”  “Market participants have welcomed a report from Bloomberg that suggest British officials are prepared to water down the controversial Internal Market Bill in a move that could help improve trade negotiations with the EU.”  “If a last minute deal can still be reached before year end, the end of October/early November is now seen as the real final deadline for talks. In the meantime, we expect market participants’ confidence over a trade deal will be more severely tested. The risk of political miscalculation still exists even if it is in both sides interests to reach a deal.”   

EUR/JPY spotlight remains on the early October low at 123.03/01, a clear break of which can see a fall back to a cluster of supports at 122.38/23, whi

EUR/JPY spotlight remains on the early October low at 123.03/01, a clear break of which can see a fall back to a cluster of supports at 122.38/23, which includes the September low and 38.2% retracement of the uptrend from May, analysts at Credit Suisse apprise. Key quotes “EUR/JPY continues to consolidate around the potential uptrend from May and with the EUR TWI holding a top as looked for, we stay biased lower for a clear break and another test of the early October spike low at 123.03/01.” “A clear break through 1.23.03/01 would warn of a move back to retest the 122.38 late September low, then more likely we think key retracement supports seen at 122.27/23 – including the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from the May low – which we continue to look to remain a stronger floor. A break though would instead raise the prospect of a deeper setback to the ‘neckline’ to the June/July base at 121.35, with scope for the 200-day average at 121.08.”  “Immediate resistance stays at 123.73/78, with a break above 123.94/98 needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back to 124.16, then price resistance at 124.47/51.”  

GBP/USD has been advancing amid hopes for a Brexit deal and fresh US stimulus but PM Johnson is losing political credit amid his handling of coronavir

GBP/USD has been advancing amid hopes for a Brexit deal and fresh US stimulus but PM Johnson is losing political credit amid his handling of coronavirus while Senate Republicans do not back Trump on stimulus, FXStreet's Analyst Yohay Elam reports.  Key quotes “On Friday, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the nation that it should prepare for a no-trade deal Brexit after EU leaders refused to cede ground nor intensifying talks with Britain. However, Bloomberg is reporting that officials are ready to back down on the controversial Internal Markets Bill (IMB) which knowingly violates the Withdrawal Agreement that Johnson signed last year. Is there room to be optimistic about Brexit talks? Perhaps, yet the recent past has shown that the mood around negotiations tends to shift quickly.”  “The recovery is at risk due to a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases, compounded by a political crisis. Infections are rising especially quickly in northern England, where long-run grievances of dictates from London have resurfaced. The public is tired of limitations and also disapproves of the government's handling of the crisis. In turn, that may lead to incompliance and further lengthening the pain for the economy.” “President Donald Trump has also contributed to lifting GBP/USD by stating that he wants a larger stimulus package than Democrats. However, Senate Republicans have taken the opposite direction and back only a ‘skinny’ relief deal.”  

Gold (XAU/USD) looks poised to retreat toward $1,875 as safe-haven flows provide a stronger boost to USD than the yellow metal, FXStreet’s Eren Sengez

Gold (XAU/USD) looks poised to retreat toward $1,875 as safe-haven flows provide a stronger boost to USD than the yellow metal, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer reports. Key quotes “With US stimulus talks coming to a halt and Brexit negotiations set to continue for a few more weeks, coronavirus headlines, especially from Europe, are likely to impact risk sentiment next week and USD could continue to capitalize on flight-to-safety.” “On the downside, the initial support aligns at $1,895 (20-day SMA) ahead of the key support that seems to have formed at $1,875 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of June-August uptrend/100-day SMA). A daily close below that level could open the door for further losses toward $1,848 (September 28 low).”  “Resistances are located at $1,920/25 (50-day SMA/Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), $1,950 (static resistance) and $1,980 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement).”  

We will focus on achieving a good agreement on Brexit, Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission Vice President of Interinstitutional Relations and Foresigh

We will focus on achieving a good agreement on Brexit, Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission Vice President of Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight said this Monday. We are ready to work until the last minute to get a good agreement for both sides on Brexit. Any agreement must be fair for both sides, Šefčovič added further. Meanwhile, the British pound remained supported by reviving hopes of a last-minute Brexit deal. In fact, the GBP/USD pair was hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, around the key 1.3000 psychological mark.

The European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member, Robert Holzmann was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that more easing may be

The European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member, Robert Holzmann was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that more easing may be necessary if the coronavirus crisis worsens. There is no need for more easing yet. The remarks did little to influence the shared currency, with the EUR/USD pair holding steady near the top end of its daily trading range, just above mid-1.1700s.

The GBP/USD pair continued scaling higher through the first half of the European trading session, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyo

GBP/USD witnessed some aggressive short-covering move on Monday amid renewed Brexit optimism.The risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven USD and remained supportive of the strong move up.Monday’s key focus will be on the Barnier- Frost meeting and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.The GBP/USD pair continued scaling higher through the first half of the European trading session, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the key 1.3000 psychological mark. The British pound turned out to be the top-performing currency on the first day of a new week and was supported by the UK Brexit minister, Michale Gove's optimistic remarks. In a weekend BBC interview, Gove said that the door is “still ajar” for post-Brexit talks to continue with the European Union if officials in the bloc change their position on key points. This comes on the back of the UK PM Boris Johnson's comments on Friday, saying that Britain needs to prepare for an 'Australia style' Brexit. It is worth recalling that negotiations between the UK and the EU have stalled amid disagreements over fishing access and competition issues. Gove's remarks, however, offered a glimmer of hope and prompted some aggressive short-covering around the sterling. On the other hand, the prevalent risk-on mood dented the US dollar's relative safe-haven status and remained supportive of the strong bid tone surrounding the GBP/USD pair. The global risk sentiment got a strong lift in the wake of reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus measures and expectations of a vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus diseases by the end of this year. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the UK or the US, the incoming Brexit-related headlines will continue to drive the sentiment surrounding the British pound. Hence, the key focus will be on a meeting between the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart, David Frost. Later during the early North American session, a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell might influence the USD price dynamics and further assist traders to grab some meaningful opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

The prospects for natural gas have improved, especially compared to the depressed prices witnessed over the past year. Art Woo, Director and Senior Ec

The prospects for natural gas have improved, especially compared to the depressed prices witnessed over the past year. Art Woo, Director and Senior Economist at the Bank of Montreal, forecasts Henry Hub to US$2.50/mmbtu in 2021 (previously $2.25) while it has been trading around $1.80 over the past month. Key quotes “The increased optimism over natural gas is reflected in the futures market, which suggests that Henry Hub – North America’s benchmark price – could be significantly higher in 2021. The futures market is currently indicating that a producer could theoretically sell all of its natural gas production in 2021 at around US$3/mmbtu. In contrast, Henry Hub has averaged $1.80 over the past month.” “US natural gas production is expected to decline significantly due to weaker associated gas production from lower shale oil output while US exports of LNG are expected to accelerate on the back of the recent surge in benchmark prices in Europe. These two factors, coupled with the typical seasonal pick-up in natural gas consumption during the winter, are expected to lead to a drawdown in inventories and a tighter market.” “We revised up our forecast for Henry Hub to US$2.50/mmbtu in 2021 (previously $2.25), compared to an estimate of $1.95 for the whole of 2020. Meantime, the price of AECO – Western Canada’s natural gas benchmark – should be able to piggyback on higher Henry Hub in the coming quarters. As a result, we are projecting AECO to average US$1.75/mmbtu in 2021, up from $1.60 in 2020.”

The single currency starts the week on an upbeat mood and motivates EUR/USD to add to Friday’s gains and advance to the vicinity of 1.1750. EUR/USD up

EUR/USD reverses the earlier move to the 1.1700 support.Risk-on sentiment stays firm at the beginning of the week.ECB’s C.Lagarde is due to speak later in the European afternoon.The single currency starts the week on an upbeat mood and motivates EUR/USD to add to Friday’s gains and advance to the vicinity of 1.1750. EUR/USD up on USD-selling EUR/USD keeps the bid tone unchanged on Monday and extends the rebound from recent lows in the 1.1690/85 band. In fact, the selling bias around the greenback boosts the demand for the risk complex at the beginning of the week and underpins the recovery in spot to the mid-1.1700s. Furthermore, and accompanying the sentiment, major stock indices in Euroland navigates a sea of green following Monday’s opening bell. Earlier in the session ECB’s Luis de Guindos suggested the recovery in the region appears to have lost momentum, while Spanish economy minister N.Calviño sees the country expanding 13% in Q3 (wait... what?). Moving forward, ECB President Lagarde will speak later in the session amidst and empty docket in Euroland. Across the pond, Fed’s Powell is due to speak along with FOMC members Williams, Harker and Bostic. In the US data space, the NAHB index is only scheduled for later on Monday. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD extends the bounce off last week’s lows in the 1.1690/85 band. The outlook on EUR/USD still remains constructive, however, and bearish moves are deemed as corrective only. Further out, the positive bias in the euro remains underpinned by auspicious results from domestic fundamentals (despite momentum appears somewhat mitigated in several regions), the so far cautious stance from the ECB and the solid position of the EMU’s current account. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.37% at 1.1756 and a breakout of 1.1830 (monthly high Oct.9) would target 1.1917 (high Sep.10) en route to 1.1965 (monthly high Aug.18). On the other hand, the next support is located at 1.1688 (monthly low Ot.15) followed by 1.1612 (monthly low Sep.25) and finally 1.1495 (monthly high Mar.9).

Portugal Current Account Balance up to €-2.268B in August from previous €-2.928B

The outcome of the presidential election and the composition of Congress will have material implications for fiscal policy, the economic outlook and m

The outcome of the presidential election and the composition of Congress will have material implications for fiscal policy, the economic outlook and markets. Prediction markets and polls suggest a blue tide is the most likely outcome. As blue wave probabilities firmed the yield curve steepened, equities rallied and the safe-haven USD declined, though reduced odds of a contested election would have also been a factor. A blue wave election outcome should extend these trends into 2021 Q1, according to strategists at Westpac. Key quotes “Biden and Democratic Senate: A blue wave should see the USD ease via risk appetite channels, but substantial fiscal support could also shift the US outlook relative to the Eurozone and might bring forward the timing of Fed policy normalisation. That is an unambiguously bullish USD story. We assume risk appetite is the dominant driver in the short-term while the relative growth story would be more of a late 2021 or 2022 story. Markets should enjoy some relief over trade issues too. Biden has a protectionist streak but is likely to adopt a less confrontational approach to China. That should trigger Asian currency gains, though upside may be tempered by the realisation that any tariff reversal could be modest and slow in coming, if at all. Biden’s tariff stance has been ambiguous and confronting China is now a bipartisan issue. Biden may revise or phase out Section 232 steel and aluminum duties on the EU, Canada and Mexico, though not immediately. That, and a likely more conciliatory approach to traditional western allies, including a reduced threat of trade confrontation with the EU, may provide EUR with an additional short-term boost.” “Trump and Republican Senate: Equity and fixed income markets are likely to price in a relatively less optimistic outlook under a status quo election outcome. The setback for risk appetite should boost the USD. Trump’s tariffs pressured the currencies of trade-dependent countries subject to them, by cutting the competitiveness of their exports to the US and trimming growth prospects. A second term Trump likely prompts a round of Asian currency selling. EUR/USD may be pressured too on expectations that Trump will shift his focus to Europe, long threatened.” “Biden and Republican Senate: With a blue wave increasingly priced in, a Biden win and continued Republican Senate majority will likely prompt a setback for risk appetite - lower equities, lower yields and a lift in the USD. A smaller Covid relief bill is likely. Biden is likely to rely more on executive authority and rewriting of agency rules in this scenario. Biden would still have a freer hand on the international stage and hopes for reduced trade tensions should still underpin some modest upside for Asian currencies.” “Disputed election: In the event of a disputed election, a material decline in asset prices is likely. Treasuries should assume their traditional safe-haven role in a contested election scenario and the USD will likely firm against AUD and other commodity currencies plus emerging market FX, but should weaken against other majors e.g. EUR, JPY and CHF. While counterintuitive, that would be consistent with USD behaviour during previous episodes of Washington dysfunction. All bets would be off if there is no orderly transition of power in the event of a Trump loss.”

With the global COVID-19 count topping 40 million, amid the latest surge in the European coronavirus cases, Spanish pharmaceutical company PharmaMar c

With the global COVID-19 count topping 40 million, amid the latest surge in the European coronavirus cases, Spanish pharmaceutical company PharmaMar came out with a piece of welcome news, citing that its cancer drug - Aplidin is enormously promising in treating COVID-19. This comes after the Spanish pharma giant said Friday, a clinical trial of its cancer drug Aplidin to treat adult patients with COVID-19 was successful and it now aims to start phase III trials. The statement read: "With these data, the company will begin, in the next few days, conversations with the regulatory agencies to define the next phase III pivotal study for plitidepsin (Aplidin) in patients with COVID-19, who require hospitalization." Note that the drug is approved in Australia for the treatment of multiple myeloma. S&P 500 futures rebound to 3,500 Amid encouraging vaccine news and upbeat European earnings reports, the sentiment remains lifted and helps boost the recovery in the S&P 500 futures. more to come ...

The EUR/GBP cross witnessed some heavy selling on Monday and extended the previous session's rejection slide from a resistance marked by the top end o

EUR/GBP extended Friday’s rejection slide from over one-month-old descending channel resistance.Bearish traders might now aim to test an important support near the key 0.9000 psychological mark.A sustained strength beyond the 0.9100 mark will now be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.The EUR/GBP cross witnessed some heavy selling on Monday and extended the previous session's rejection slide from a resistance marked by the top end of over one-month-old descending channel. The downfall was sponsored by a strong pickup in demand for the British pound, with bears making a fresh attempt to extend the downward trajectory further below the 100-day SMA support. The mentioned support is followed by the key 0.9000 psychological mark, which if broken decisively should pave the way for further weakness. The EUR/GBP cross might then accelerate the slide towards challenging the trend-channel support, which is currently pegged near the 0.8930-25 region. A convincing breakthrough will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the vicinity of the 0.9300 mark. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been struggling to gain any meaningful traction – are still far from confirming the near-term bearish outlook. Hence, any subsequent downfall might continue to attract some dip-buying and remain limited amid persistent Brexit-related uncertainties. On the flip side, the 0.9070 horizontal zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the trend-channel resistance, around the 0.9100 round-figure mark. Bulls might wait for a sustained move beyond the mentioned barrier before positioning for a move towards the 0.9155-60 intermediate resistance en-route the 0.9200 mark. EUR/GBP daily chart Technical levels to watch  

USD/CAD has bounced-off a dip to the weekly lows of 1.3169 but the outlook doesn’t appear constructive in the near-term. Despite the quick retracement

USD/CAD eyes ascending triangle breakdown on 15-minutes chart. The spot trades below all the key simple moving averages (SMA). Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower while below 50.00. USD/CAD has bounced-off a dip to the weekly lows of 1.3169 but the outlook doesn’t appear constructive in the near-term. Despite the quick retracement, the spot still remains below the 1.3200 level, as it on the verge of an ascending triangle breakdown, as spotted on the 15-minutes chart. A sustained break below the rising trendline support of 1.3176 will validate the pattern, paving way for a test of the 1.3150 in the upcoming hour. Backing the case for further declines, the RSI on the given timeframe trades in the bearish region while pointing south at 37.91. Also, the spot trades below all major SMAs, suggesting that the downside appears more compelling amid a lack of healthy support levels. On the flip side, the confluence of the 21-SMA on the 15-minutes chart and 50-SMA at 1.3183 will limit the immediate upside. A break above which the 100-DMA barrier at 1.3190 will get tested. Further north, the buyers need to take out the 200-SMA at 1.3206 in order to negate the near-term bearish momentum. USD/CAD: 15-minutes chart USD/CAD: Additional levels  

EUR/GBP remains on the back foot, around 0.9030, down 0.46% intraday, and a clear break of 0.9026/05 should allow weakness to accelerate sharply, with

EUR/GBP remains on the back foot, around 0.9030, down 0.46% intraday, and a clear break of 0.9026/05 should allow weakness to accelerate sharply, with next support at 0.8934, as the Credit Suisse analyst team notes. Key quotes “With the short-term downtrend from mid-September still intact, today seen at 0.9104/10 and with the EUR TWI Itself now confirming a top in outright terms, our overall bias still leans lower for now.” “Support is seen at 0.9034 initially, then 0.9005, below which can clear the way for a move to 0.8982 next, the 50% retracement of the uptrend from late April, ahead of 0.8956 and then more important support from the trend channel low at 0.8934, where we would expect fresh buyers to show.”  “Bigger picture, below 0.8866/64 remains needed to mark a more important top.”  “Resistance is seen at 0.9094 initially, with 0.9110/23 now ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Above can see strength back to retest 0.9165/69, but with a break above here needed to mark a near-term base.”  

EUR/USD has been holding up above 1.17 amid fresh hopes for a US fiscal stimulus deal but fears of a double-dip recession are gripping the old contine

EUR/USD has been holding up above 1.17 amid fresh hopes for a US fiscal stimulus deal but fears of a double-dip recession are gripping the old continent and could send the pair below the 1.1685 critical support, Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, reports. See – EUR/USD to revisit the 1.1695 interim support – Commerzbank Key quotes “President Donald Trump has said he wants a bigger stimulus package than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – the surprising twist to the endless has sent stocks higher and the safe-haven dollar lower. Pelosi set Tuesday as a deadline for reaching a deal, perhaps making some think that a deal can be reached quickly. Are these hopes real? Probably not. So far, Democrats have passed a bill worth $2.2 trillion while the White House offered only $1.8 trillion. Moreover, Senate Republicans are focused on the Supreme Court and seem to have returned to their opposition to a generous relief package, settling for a sub $1 trillion deal.” “While the increase in US coronavirus cases – and especially in Wisconsin, a battleground – could impact the vote, the focus is on Europe. Italy joined France, Spain, and other countries in imposing restrictions to curb the spread of the disease, undermining the economic recovery. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, expressed concerns about a slowdown, and some fear a double-dip recession is coming. As long as infections continue rising, the euro is set to remain under pressure.”  “EUR/USD is trading under the 50, 100, and 200 Simple Moving Averages on the 4-hour chart and suffers from downside momentum. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index is above 30 – outside oversold conditions. Critical support awaits at 1.1685, which was a slow point last week and also in late September. Further down, the next cushions are only at 1.1625 and 1.1610. Some resistance is at 1.1745, a high point on Friday.”   

European Monetary Union Construction Output s.a (MoM) increased to 2.57% in August from previous 0.19%

Negative policy rate prospects should stem NZD strength but economists at HSBC don’t expect any large flow impact from a change in the rate sign. A di

Negative policy rate prospects should stem NZD strength but economists at HSBC don’t expect any large flow impact from a change in the rate sign. A divergent monetary policy outlook should see the NZD underperform the AUD further while the main reasons for the constructive view on AUD/USD are also mirrored in NZD/USD. See: NZD/USD to extend the rise beyond 0.6620 – Westpac Key quotes “Negative rate prospects should stem NZD strength, although it is less likely to see any large flow impact from a change in the policy rate sign. In fact, we find that foreign holdings of New Zealand government debt have actually increased by NZD3 B since May 2020, despite the build-up of negative rate expectations and the yield curve dropping back below peers.” “The AUD and NZD are both exposed to similar external forces as ‘risk-on’ commodity-exporting currencies, meaning it is frequently only the direction of domestic monetary policy that differentiates the two. In other words, a divergent monetary policy outlook should see the NZD underperform the AUD.” “Essentially, aside from the monetary policy outlook, the main reasons for our constructive view on AUD/USD are mirrored in NZD/USD. For instance, the economic recovery is likely to be well supported by flexible fiscal policy, New Zealand’s current account is also in its best position for more than a decade and the outlook is also supported by buoyant commodity prices. So, we still expect NZD/USD to rise modestly into next year.”  

European Monetary Union Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) up to -0.9% in August from previous -3.8%

WTI (futures on NYMEX) is off the monthly highs of $41.47, posting small losses around the $41 level, as investors look to take profits off the table

WTI fades a spike to $41.45, still in monthly highs.US oil trades flat amid China GDP miss, positive equities. OPEC+ to discuss weakening oil demand outlook. WTI (futures on NYMEX) is off the monthly highs of $41.47, posting small losses around the $41 level, as investors look to take profits off the table ahead of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting due later on Monday. The pullback from multi-week highs can be mainly attributed to the Chinese Q3 GDP disappointment. The Chinese economy expanded less-than-expected in Q3, underscoring concerns over the demand for oil from the world’s second-largest oil consumer. Despite the retreat, the sentiment around the higher-yielding oil remains underpinned by the upbeat market mood, as markets remain hopeful of a potential US fiscal stimulus and coronavirus vaccines. Further, the risk-on rally in the global markets weighs on the safe-haven US dollar, in turn, benefiting the USD-sensitive black gold. A weaker greenback makes the dollar-denominated oil cheaper for foreign buyers. Also, backing the bullish case in the WTI barrel, the OPEC+ is set to meet today to discuss the weakening oil demand outlook, in the face of the coronavirus resurgence on both sides of the Atlantic. The OPEC+, which includes top producers – Saudi Arabia and Russia, is also likely to talk about the increased Libyan oil output. Although the OPEC+ is unlikely to recommend any immediate action to tackle the dwindling demand prospects, any measures/ comments to support the prices could offer fresh zest to the WTI bulls. WTI Technical levels “Following that, September 04 high near $42.10 holds the key to the commodity’s further upside towards the late-August lows surrounding $43.50. Alternatively, a downside break of the nearby support line, at $40.78 now, can recall sellers to attack the $39.70-60 support zone comprising 200-bar SMA and the triangle’s support,” FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal explained. WTI Additional levels  

The GBP/JPY cross refreshed daily tops during the early European session, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 137.00 mark. The

GBP/JPY gained strong traction on Monday in reaction to Gove’s optimistic remarks.The prevalent risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and remained supportive.Monday’s key focus will be on headlines coming out of the Barnier- Frost meeting.The GBP/JPY cross refreshed daily tops during the early European session, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 137.00 mark. The cross caught some aggressive bids on the first day of a new trading week and build on the previous session's intraday bounce from two-week lows, around the 135.40 region. The British pound got a strong boost in reaction to optimistic comments by the UK's Brexit minister Michale Gove, saying that the door is "still ajar" for post-Brexit talks to continue with the European Union. Gove's comments largely offset the UK Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson's remarks on Friday, saying that Britain needs to get ready for leaving the EU with no trade deal. This, in turn, prompted traders to unwind their bearish GBP bets. Meanwhile, Johnson's spokesman had said that talks with the EU were over unless there is a fundamental change of position from the EU. Hence, the focus now shifts to a meeting between the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart, David Frost, later this Monday. The incoming Brexit-related headlines will continue to play a key role in driving the sentiment surrounding the sterling and infuse some intraday volatility around the GBP/JPY cross amid absent relevant market-moving economic data. On the other hand, the prevalent risk-on mood – amid reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus measures – undermined the Japanese yen's safe-haven demand and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. That said, bulls might still need to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 137.20-30 supply zone before positioning for any further gains. Technical levels to watch  

Australian upbeat data was overshadowed by RBA’s Governor Lowe hinting more stimulus. Mounting tensions between Canberra and Beijing could put extra w

Australian upbeat data was overshadowed by RBA’s Governor Lowe hinting more stimulus. Mounting tensions between Canberra and Beijing could put extra weight on the aussie which is holding above 0.7000 but could turn bearish mid-term once below it, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik reports.  Key quotes “The commodity-linked currency declined after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Philip Lowe hinted an upcoming rate cut. Lowe said further monetary easing would support jobs growth and alleviate currency pressures, hinting a possible cut to a record low of 0.1%. Extraordinary monetary stimulus is no surprise to investors in the current pandemic scenario that put the world in recession.” “Not only the US government delayed additional stimulus, but also the number of new coronavirus cases reached a fresh record daily high of 380K. In that particular front, Australia is doing much better than its overseas rivals, as the country has reported 20 new cases a day on average in the last couple of weeks. Another negative factor for the aussie came from news indicating that China has banned imports of Australian coal.” “Australian macroeconomic figures were mostly encouraging, as Westpac Consumer Confidence printed at 11.9% in October, above the 9.9% expected, although below the previous 18%. Consumer Inflation Expectations in the same month improved to 3.4% from 3.1%. Also, the September employment report showed that the country lost 29.5K job positions, less than the -35K expected, while the unemployment rate ticked higher from 6.8% to 6.9% better than the 7.1% expected.” “The 0.7000 threshold is the immediate support level, en route to 0.6920. Below this last, the pair has room to extend its decline to 0.6840. The initial barrier to the upside is 0.7130, followed by 0.7200 and the 0.7250 price zone.”  

The recent data shows loss of momentum in the economic recovery, the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis De Guindos said in a scheduled sp

The recent data shows loss of momentum in the economic recovery, the European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis De Guindos said in a scheduled speech on Monday. Additional comments “EU countries are being hit by the second wave of coronavirus.” “Doesn't look like countries want to impose strict lockdowns such as seen in March.” “Banking consolidation is a tool to strengthen the financial sector but not a goal in itself.” Market reaction Despite the coronavirus concerns and downbeat comments from the ECB policymakers, EUR/USD flirts with daily lows near 1.1730, courtesy of the broad US dollar decline.

The USD/JPY pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained confined in a range, below mid-105.00s through the early European sessi

A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus to USD/JPY.A subdued USD demand kept a lid on the early intraday positive move to three-day tops.The risk-on mood, a strong pickup in the US bond yields might help limit any sharp slide.The USD/JPY pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained confined in a range, below mid-105.00s through the early European session. The prevalent upbeat market mood – as depicted by strong gains in the equity markets – undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen and assisted the USD/JPY pair to gain some traction on the first day of a new week. The uptick pushed the pair to three-day tops, albeit the upside remained limited amid a subdued US dollar demand. The global risk sentiment remained well supported by reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus measures and expectations of a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of this year. However, nervousness on the US political situation held the USD bulls from placing any aggressive bets and capped the upside for the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the risk-on flow led to a strong rally in the US Treasury bond yields. This, along with concerns that a steep rise in new coronavirus cases could trigger renewed lockdown measures and prove detrimental for the global economic growth continued lending some support to the greenback's status as the reserve currency. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. On the other hand, a sustained move beyond mid-105.00s will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a move towards the 106.00 round-figure mark. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Monday. Hence, the key focus will be on a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment will play a key role in influencing the USD/JPY pair and produce some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD has struggled to advance amid minimal progress in Brexit and US fiscal stimulus talks. The US presidential debate and the UK's handling of cor

GBP/USD has struggled to advance amid minimal progress in Brexit and US fiscal stimulus talks. The US presidential debate and the UK's handling of coronavirus stand out this week, yet several economic figures could also steal the show, FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam reports. Key quotes “Brexit deliberations continue in the background, with any headlines about progress set to push sterling higher, while disagreements could pound the pound. The next deadline is the end of the month, however, this can-kicking exercise could be extended until the only hard stop – year-end, when the transition expires.”  “Coronavirus statistics and decisions about lockdowns may take center stage. Several scientists suggest announcing a nationwide ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown. If Johnson announces a ‘circuit-breaking’ move, it could break down the pound. Keeping lockdowns local – and especially keeping London out of Tier Three – would allow some breathing space for sterling.” “Several members of the Bank of England, including Governor Andrew Bailey, will speak during the week. Markets are currently dismissing the probability of a negative interest rate, but if lockdowns are coming, the BoE may accelerate preparations for such a move, weighing on the pound.”  “For September, inflation figures are set to show a recovery from 0.9% to 1.3% in the headline Consumer Price Index. If CPI nears 2%, it would ease pressure from the BoE and could boost the pound. Markit's preliminary purchasing managers' indexes for October are projected to show a minor decrease in confidence, albeit still pointing to growth – above 50 points. Any decline below that threshold could weigh on the pound.” “The election campaign is entering high gear with the second and last presidential debate between Trump and Biden. The debate is held on Thursday, 12 days ahead of the only poll that matters, and as millions have already sent their mail-in ballots or voted early. Nevertheless, an upbeat performance by Trump could shake the race.” “If Democrats take control of the upper house, they could quickly pass a generous stimulus bill that markets want. That may boost stocks and weigh on the dollar. Conversely, if Trump and Republicans recover, the safe-haven greenback could rise.”  “Fiscal stimulus talks will likely continue, but with every day that passes toward the vote, the chances are diminishing. A miracle deal could boost stocks and weigh on the dollar, while a breakup of talks is likely to cause only a shortlived advance in the greenback.”  

The greenback, when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), loses further momentum and drops to the 93.65/60 band following the opening bell in Europe

DXY sheds ground and recedes to the 93.65/60 band on Monday.Pandemic, politics keep driving the risk appetite trends.NAHB Index, Fedspeak next of relevance in the US calendar.The greenback, when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), loses further momentum and drops to the 93.65/60 band following the opening bell in Europe on Monday. US Dollar Index looks to data, risks The index adds to Friday’s bearishness and challenges the 93.60 region on Monday, area coincident with the 6-month resistance line and just below last week’s tops around 93.90. In the meantime, the dollar remains somewhat supported by a mild bias towards the risk aversion, stemming from stalled stimulus talks, the impact on the global economy of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, Brexit lack of progress and political uncertainty ahead of the November 3 elections. In the US data space, the NAHB index will be the sole release later in the session along with speeches by Chief J.Powell, FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish), New York Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist), Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (2021 voter, centrist) and Ohilly Fed P.Harker (voter, hawkish). What to look for around USD The index met solid contention in the 93.00 region so far this month. Occasional bullish attempts, however, are seen as temporary, as the underlying sentiment towards the greenback remains cautious. This view is reinforced by the “lower for longer” stance from the Federal Reserve, hopes of a strong recovery in the global economy and rising bets of a “blue wave” win at the presidential elections. Developments around another US stimulus package also collaborate with the vigilant stance around the buck. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is losing 0.10% at 93.62 and faces immediate contention at 93.01 (monthly low Oct.12) followed by 92.70 (weekly low Sep.10) and then 91.92 (23.6% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop). On the other hand, a break above 94.20 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop) would aim for 94.74 (monthly high Sep.25) and finally 96.03 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop).

Gold edged higher through the early European session on Monday and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, around the $191

A softer tone surrounding the USD assisted gold to regain positive traction on Monday.The risk-on mood, a pickup in the US bond yields might keep a lid on any strong gains.Bulls might wait for a sustained move beyond a two-month-old descending trend-line.Gold edged higher through the early European session on Monday and was last seen hovering near the top end of its daily trading range, around the $1910-11 region. The precious metal managed to regain positive traction on the first day of a new week and has now reversed the previous day's negative move. A mildly softer tone surrounding the US dollar was seen as one of the key factors that extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity. This comes on the back of an uncertain US political situation, which further benefitted the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status. However, a combination of factors might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the XAU/USD, warranting some caution before placing aggressive bullish bets. A strong pickup in the US Treasury bond yields might help limit any meaningful downside for the greenback. Adding to this, concerns about the second wave of coronavirus infections and renewed lockdown measures might continue to benefit the USD's status as the global reserve currency. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on mood – amid reviving hopes for additional US fiscal stimulus measures – might further collaborate towards capping gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. Even from a technical perspective, the XAU/USD has repeatedly failed near a resistance marked by a two-month-old descending trend-line. Hence, any subsequent move up runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. Meanwhile, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech might influence the intraday momentum and assist traders to grab some meaningful opportunities later during the early North American session. Technical levels to watch  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is posed to extend the decline if 104.70 is cleared in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY is posed to extend the decline if 104.70 is cleared in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘the price actions offer no fresh clues and USD could continue to trade sideways for now, likely between 105.05 and 105.55’. USD traded sideways as expected, albeit within a narrower range of 105.17/105.44. The underlying tone has firmed somewhat and USD could edge higher but any advance is unlikely to break the solid resistance at 105.70 (minor resistance is at 105.55). On the downside, a break of 105.15 would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our latest narrative from last Thursday (15 Oct, spot at 105.20). As highlighted, while the bias is tilted to the downside, USD “has to close below 104.70 before a sustained decline can be expected”. This scenario remains intact as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 105.70 is not taken out.”

Investors reduced their open interest positions for the second consecutive session on Friday, now by around 2.3K contracts according to advanced figur

Investors reduced their open interest positions for the second consecutive session on Friday, now by around 2.3K contracts according to advanced figures from CME Group. Volume, instead, reversed four consecutive sessions and rose by nearly 37.2K contracts. Natural Gas faces further consolidation Prices of Natural Gas charted and inconclusive session on Friday amidst shrinking open interest and rising volume. Against this, further consolidation appears on the cards, while a breakout of this theme should face the next hurdle at the $3.00 mark per MMBtu in the near-term.

EUR/USD is trading just above the 1.17 level. August low was made at 1.1695 and Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects th

EUR/USD is trading just above the 1.17 level. August low was made at 1.1695 and Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, expects the pair to revisit this mark and sees further losses to 1.1612.  Key quotes “EUR/USD did not manage to take out support offered by the 1.1695 August low last week, and while we are seeing a minor bounce from here indications are that this rally should peter out around 1.1765.”  “Intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and this suggests further losses to the recent low at 1.1612.”  “Below 1.1612 would target the 1.1495 March high, which, if seen, is expected to hold.” “Nearby resistance lies 1.1831/71. Above 1.1871 (21st September high) would be needed for recovery to 1.1971 and then 1.2014/15.”  

NZD/USD is on the rise following Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's impressive victory in New Zealand's general elections. Economists at Westpac have a s

NZD/USD is on the rise following Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's impressive victory in New Zealand's general elections. Economists at Westpac have a slightly positive bias due to clear election result and see potential for gains beyond 0.6620.  See – New Zealand election: Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party scores landslide win Key quotes “NZD/USD has so far shown a very modest +15 pip reaction to the landslide win by Labour in the NZ general election. Perhaps that is due to pre-election polls which indicated Labour was well ahead of National, which means a comfortable Labour win was already priced into the NZD. In addition, Labour did not campaign on any major new policies.”  “There’s potential for further modest gains during the day ahead, beyond 0.6620. The multi-month outlook remains positive, with potential to rise towards 0.6800 – the top of a multi-month range.”  “Medium supports include elevated global risk sentiment, a weak USD trend, and NZ economic outperformance. The main medium-term negative is the dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand, but we note that NZ-US yield spreads have weakened in influence this year.”

AUD/USD faces further downside but a move to levels below 0.7005 appears unlikely for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quote

AUD/USD faces further downside but a move to levels below 0.7005 appears unlikely for the time being, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation that ‘there is room for AUD to move to 0.7045 first before the current weakness should stabilize’ did not materialize as AUD traded in a quiet manner and within a relatively narrow range between 0.7071 and 0.7100. The underlying tone has firmed and the bias for today is titled to the upside. That said, any advance is likely limited to a test 0.7135 (next resistance is at 0.7165). Support is at 0.7075 followed by 0.7050.” Next 1-3 weeks: “The sudden and sharp drop in AUD yesterday that hit a low of 0.7057 came as a surprise (we were expecting AUD to trade within a broad range of 0.7080/0.7230). The rapid improvement in downward momentum indicates that AUD could weaken further even though the odds for a break of last month’s low near 0.7005 are not high. Overall, AUD is expected to trade on its back foot unless it can move above the ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.7165.”

China's September data releases were positive, revealing yet more signs of strengthening recovery. Economists at TD Securities expect the trend to con

China's September data releases were positive, revealing yet more signs of strengthening recovery. Economists at TD Securities expect the trend to continue, with China being one of the only major economies likely to record positive growth this year. CNY, equities, and risk assets, in general, should like what they see in the data while Chinese bonds, however, will likely remain on the back foot. Key quotes “China's Sep data dump revealed more evidence of strengthening recovery. Retail sales rose 3.3% YoY (mkt 1.6%), industrial output was up 6.9% YoY, (TD 6.0%. mkt 5.8%), the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% (mkt 5.5%), fixed assets were up 0.8% YTD YoY (mkt 0.9%) and property investment was up 5.6% YTD YoY (mkt 5.2%). Q3 GDP disappointed, coming in at 2.7% SA QoQ (mkt 3.3%), 4.9% YoY (TD 5.6%, mkt 5.5%) but this is backward looking and growth has now edged back into positive territory for the year at 0.7% YTD YoY.” “There are still risks ahead such as renewed external weakness and of course renewed virus cases. Indeed, lockdowns in many major economies may weaken demand for Chinese goods. Also some high frequency Chinese data are beginning to lose momentum, suggesting that the pace of recovery may slow. Nonetheless, China's growth engine looks like its beginning to fire on all cylinders. This will likely keep the CNY and Chinese equities supported, while bonds are likely to continue to face pressure.” “We think that firming data will reduce any desire for renewed CNY weakness. In fact, the data will likely help to continue to fuel CNY appreciation pressures, with the CNY vs. USD rising to its highest since March 2019. At most, People’s Bank of China will likely slow the pace of appreciation rather than stem.”  

The AUD/USD pair edged higher during the Asian session on Monday, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the move further beyond the 0.7100 mark. R

The risk-on mood benefitted perceived riskier currencies and assisted AUD/USD to gain traction.Concerns about rising COVID-19 cases underpinned the safe-haven USD and capped the upside.Investors now look forward to the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for a fresh trading impetus.The AUD/USD pair edged higher during the Asian session on Monday, albeit seemed struggling to capitalize on the move further beyond the 0.7100 mark. Renewed hopes of additional US fiscal stimulus measures and expectations of a coronavirus vaccine by the end of this year provided a goodish lift to the global risk sentiment. This was evident from a positive tone around the equity markets, which benefitted the perceived riskier Australian dollar and assisted the AUD/USD pair to gain some positive traction on the first day of a new week. However, concerns that a steep rise in new coronavirus cases could trigger renewed lockdown measures and hurt the ongoing recovery in the global economy continued benefitting the safe-haven US dollar. Adding to this, weaker-than-expected Chinese GDP print, along with expectations that the RBA will cut interest rates in November kept a lid on any strong gains for the AUD/USD pair. In fact, China’s third-quarter GDP report came in to show that economic growth stood at 4.9% as against 5.2% expected. The disappointing reading largely offset mostly upbeat Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures, which recorded a growth of 3.3% and 6.9%, respectively in September. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair, for now, seems to have snapped two consecutive days of the losing streak and stall last week's retracement slide from the vicinity of mid-0.7200s. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases from the US. Market participants now look forward to a scheduled speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment will influence the USD price dynamics and produce some meaningful trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD bulls hopeful amid technical breakout, bullish RSI. A sustained move above 1.2960 is needed to target 1.3000. Brexit negotiations will be clo

GBP/USD bulls hopeful amid technical breakout, bullish RSI.A sustained move above 1.2960 is needed to target 1.3000.Brexit negotiations will be closely followed on Monday. GBP/USD is building on Friday’s sharp recovery from below 1.2900 so far this Monday, as the bulls remain hopeful of some positive developments from a fresh round of Brexit negotiations likely to be held between EU’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his British counterpart David Frost. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot has confirmed a descending triangle breakout on the hourly chart, opening doors for a rally towards 1.3100. On its way north, the price will confront powerful resistance at 1.2960, the confluence of the horizontal 200-hourly moving average (HMA) and downward-sloping 100-HMA. The hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firmer within the bullish territory, currently at 60.23, suggesting more room to the upside. A sustained move above the aforesaid barrier is needed to make another attempt towards the 1.3000 level. A break above which the October 14 high at 1.3064 will be put to test. Alternatively, strong support at 1.2925 will restrict immediate pullbacks. That level is the confluence of the 21 and 50-HMAs. Acceptance below the latter would bring the descending trendline resistance-turned-support at 1.2913 back in play. GBP/USD: Hourly chart GBP/USD: Additional levels

The apparent failure of US Congressional talks propelled USD/CAD on Thursday but a stellar September US Retail Sales on Friday did nothing to assist t

The apparent failure of US Congressional talks propelled USD/CAD on Thursday but a stellar September US Retail Sales on Friday did nothing to assist the dollar which closed at 1.3189 two-thirds of a figure below the week’s high at 1.3260 on Thursday. The USD/CAD pair is likely to continue sliding until the markets reassume some degree of economic comparison, Joseph Trevisani, an Analyst at FXStreet, reports. Key quotes “When news reports or comments from participants were positive and a deal seemed possible, the dollar sold off with the logic that stimulus would improve the US economy, mitigating overall risk. When negotiations stalled or the sides were said to be far apart or when President Donald Trump temporarily withdrew from the talks, the US dollar gained ground as traders sought the supposed safety of US assets.” “The sides are still in contact but Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told her caucus there are still many differences. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin is heading to the Middle East in a few days and with less than three weeks before the election, and no new meeting scheduled, the possibility for a deal diminishes daily.” “The upper border of the original channel is around 1.3000 and will not attract trading. Support lines at 1.3150 and then 1.3050 are substantial with resistance at 1.3250 and 1.3315.”  “The drift lower is the product of two forces. First, the long-running retreat of the US Dollar in the wake of the March panic has not been replaced by a new scenario. Given the lack of competing ideas, the decline continues. Second, the main support of the dollar, aside from the occasional technical intervention, is still the risk-off trade.”  

The USD/JPY fundamental picture has not changed from last week though the alternating risk-on and off from the Washington stimulus talks had worn out

The USD/JPY fundamental picture has not changed from last week though the alternating risk-on and off from the Washington stimulus talks had worn out by Friday. The descending channel remains the main technical motif as restricted range gives technical indicators heavier trading influence, Joseph Trevisani, an Analyst at FXStreet, informs. Key quotes “Markets have not replaced the general safety trade outlook with an analysis based in comparative economics. With new COVID-19 diagnoses in Europe now outstripping those in the US, where they are rising also, the overall risk sensitivity is not likely to fade in the near future.” “Technical considerations are the main force edging the USD/JPY lower. The descending channel that dates to late April and the market panic around the early COVID-19 scare has governed trading in the absence of countervailing factors and that should continue with support at 105.00 and 104.55 relatively weak and a large, sparsely traded area to the next support at 103.00, the path of least resistance is down.” “In a strict economic comparison the US and the dollar would likely perform far better than Japan and the yen, but that somewhat nostalgic approach is weeks or months away.”  

EUR/USD is trading around 1.17, at the bottom of the recent range. The steep increase in coronavirus cases in Europe is likely to keep undermining the

EUR/USD is trading around 1.17, at the bottom of the recent range. The steep increase in coronavirus cases in Europe is likely to keep undermining the euro while speculative interest fears an even slower economic comeback as restrictive measures returned. There are high chances that the ongoing risk-averse scenario extends this week, as the issues continue to escalate, FXStreet’s Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik briefs. Key quotes “US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have had different talks these days, but were still unable to agree. They are quite close, but Pelosi noted that testing is one of the main issues remaining in talks. The blame-game continues, and at this point, it seems unlikely they would be able to clinch a deal before the presidential election.” “New coronavirus contagions have been rising exponentially in Europe. On Thursday, the Old Continent reported over 153K new COVID-19 contagions, with Spain, France, the UK, Italy and Germany reporting the most cases. Just France reported a record of over 30K new cases in one day. That led to a curfew in the country starting this Saturday, although several other countries are imposing tough restrictive measures. Financial markets are concerned these measures will further delay the already tepid economic comeback.” “The market paid little attention to macroeconomic data, which was overshadowed by the ruling negative sentiment. Still, data has been worrisome, reflecting a slowing growth pace. In terms of macroeconomic releases, this will is quite light. The most relevant figures will be published on Friday, as Markit will publish the preliminary estimates of its October PMIs for the EU and the US. Also on Friday, US President Donald Trump and his Democrat rival, Joe Biden, will participate in their last presidential debate.”  

Gold (XAU/USD) is on the rise, trading above the $1,900 level it has been battling in recent weeks, but the yellow metal’s upside scope is limited aft

Gold (XAU/USD) is on the rise, trading above the $1,900 level it has been battling in recent weeks, but the yellow metal’s upside scope is limited after China Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) disappointed the market, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.  Key quotes “Gold looks to extend its month-long range play between $1850-$1950, as the broader market sentiment and the dollar dynamics will continue to play out.  “Sellers continue to lurk above $1900, especially after the Chinese Q3 GDP miss disappointed market and put a fresh bid under the dollar. China’s annualized Q3 GDP arrived at 4.9% vs. +5.2 expectations and +3.2% last. The downbeat data negated the optimism over a new US fiscal relief aid and virus vaccines.” “To the topside, the confluence zone of the falling trendline resistance and bearish 50-daily moving average (DMA) around $1915-20 remains a tough nut to crack for the XAU bulls. On the other hand, the critical 100-DMA support at $1873 needs to be cleared to unleash further declines.”  

Commenting on the Brexit negotiations to secure a trade deal with the European Union (EU), the UK Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said that the EU ne

Commenting on the Brexit negotiations to secure a trade deal with the European Union (EU), the UK Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick said that the EU needs to show flexibility on Brexit. Additional comments “So far, EU has not shown flexibility.” “Unless the EU comes back to us with that, we will leave without a deal.” “We don't want a no-deal but we have to move forward.”   more to come ...

CME Group’s flash data for Crude Oil futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by nearly 7K cont

CME Group’s flash data for Crude Oil futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by nearly 7K contracts. In the same direction, volume went down for the third session in a row, now by around 292.2K contracts. WTI: Upside still faces resistance around $41.50 Prices of the WTI trades within a mild downtrend so far. However, Friday’s inconclusive performance was amidst shrinking open interest and volume, supporting the idea of shallow pullbacks and leaving a potential rebound in the pipeline. That said, the $41.50 level still emerges as a key barrier for oil bulls.

Cable remains tilted to the downside, while a solid hurdle emerges at 1.3050, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday

Cable remains tilted to the downside, while a solid hurdle emerges at 1.3050, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we highlighted that GBP ‘could weaken further but odds for break of the major support at 1.2845 are not high’. GBP subsequently dropped to 1.2860, rebounded quickly and traded sideways for the rest of the sessions. Momentum indicators are beginning to trun flat and for today, GBP is likely to consolidate and trade between 1.2885 and 1.2980.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated yesterday (15 Oct, spot at 1.3015) that ‘the rapid swings have resulted in a mixed outlook’ and GBP ‘could trade between 1.2845 and 1.3120 for a period of time’. GBP subsequently gave up most of its gains from Wednesday (14 Oct) as it dropped to 1.2891 before closing on a weak note at 1.2899 (-0.85%). While the underlying tone has weakened, it is too soon to expect a sustained decline below 1.2845. Overall, GBP is likely to trade on a slightly defensive mode with 1.3050 acting as a strong resistance.”

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 19: Markets are cautiously optimistic and the US dollar is edging lower amid fresh hopes that the US

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 19: Markets are cautiously optimistic and the US dollar is edging lower amid fresh hopes that the US agrees on a stimulus deal before the elections. Chinese Q3 GDP missed estimates but includes several positives. Concerns about eurozone coronavirus cases and Brexit talks is weighing on sentiment. Fiscal stimulus: US President Donald Trump has said that he is willing to go for a larger stimulus deal than Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's $2.2 trillion package ahead of the elections. He would have to convince hawks among Senate Republicans to back a large relief package.US Retail Sales beat estimates with a leap of 1.9% in September, showing the resilience of the economy and potentially reducing the need for additional support from the government. Pelosi set Tuesday as a deadline to conclude talks while Senate Republicans are focused on the Supreme Court nomination.US elections: Challenger Joe Biden continues leading Trump in national and state polls, with forecasts pointing to around 90% chance of winning according to FiveThirtyEight and The Economist. The race for the Senate is significantly closer, with only a 74% probability for the Democrats according to these websites.  See 2020 Elections: Seven reasons why this is not 2016, time to focus on the Senate Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will speak later on Monday in a panel about digital currencies. China reported its economy grew by 4.9% annualized in the third quarter of 2020, worse than expected. However, the Gross Domestic Product was hobbled by an increase in exports, which is a sign of growing consumption in the world's second-largest economy.  The Chinese economy depends on demand from other places, and Europe's surge in COVID-19 cases may reduce growth. Italy, which was initially spared from the second wave, imposed new restrictions, joining other countries. France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Belgium are hard-hit in the eurozone, but also Germany is struggling.EUR/USD is trading around 1.17, at the bottom of the recent range. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said that the recovery risks going momentum amid new restrictions and that her institution has not exhausted its toolbox. She is set to speak again later. Gold is on the rise, trading above the $1,900 level it has been battling in recent weeks.  Brexit: Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK should prepare for a no-trade-deal Brexit in January after expressing disappointment from the EU decision not to intensify talks nor make sufficient concessions, according to London. On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that the UK could water down the controversial Internal Markets Bill, potentially paving the way for a breakthrough. Moreover, Michel Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, canceled his planned visit to London but will hold a telephone call with his British counterparts.  The UK is also struggling with an increase in coronavirus cases which have caused tensions between the central government and cities in northern England. Moreover, Moody's downgraded the country's credit rating. NZD/USD is on the rise following Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's impressive victory in New Zealand's general elections. Her Labour Party won an absolute majority after successfully encountering the virus. Cryptocurrencies are consolidating recent advances, with Bitcoin trading above $11,400. More Big move coming in EUR/USD? Fiscal stimulus and coronavirus are the keys

Open interest in Gold futures markets rose by round 1.8K contracts at the end of last week, clinching the second build in a row in light of preliminar

Open interest in Gold futures markets rose by round 1.8K contracts at the end of last week, clinching the second build in a row in light of preliminary readings from CME Group. On the other hand, volume extended the choppy performance and shrunk by around 72K contracts. Gold stays immersed into a consolidative theme Friday’s negative price action in Gold was on the back of rising open interest, opening the door for the continuation of the downtrend in the short-term. In the meantime, prices of the ounce troy of the yellow metal keep the broad consolidative range unchanged between the 55-day and the 100-day SMAs.

USD/CAD changes hands around 1.3190/85 ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the loonie pair looks for a direction as the market’s risk-on

USD/CAD seesaws between 1.3185/90 after stopping the three-day rise on Friday.Trading sentiment stays positive on hopes of US stimulus, virus vaccine.WTI eases as US dollar prints mild gains, downbeat China data.Fed Chair Powell’s speech, Canadian Wholesale Sales and BOC Business Outlook Survey in the spotlight.USD/CAD changes hands around 1.3190/85 ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the loonie pair looks for a direction as the market’s risk-on sentiment combats WTI weakness and the US dollar recovery. Global market sentiment improved on Monday, adding to the late Friday’s upbeat mood, as US President Donald Trump said that he wants the biggest stimulus plan than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s proposal. President Trump was earlier criticized for his lack of acceptance of a big budget on the coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus.  Also adding to the market’s optimism could be Trump’s reiteration that the COVID-19 vaccine will soon be out. While cheering the risk-on mood, by an uptick in US stock futures and Asia-Pacific shares, traders also bought the US dollar as Friday’s welcome prints of Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index renewed greenback buyers’ hopes. Other than the risk-tone and USD buying, WTI’s weakness also restricts the USD/CAD moves as oil is the biggest export-item for Canada. Despite early-Asian gains, oil prices recently dropped as China’s GDP grew less than expected in the third quarter (Q3). Further, the OPEC+ meeting to assess the output cut compliance is also a reason for the black gold’s latest weakness. Furthermore, USD/CAD traders’ cautious mood ahead of the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, also before the August month’s Wholesale Sales and quarterly results of the BOC Business Outlook Survey, can also be spotted for the pair’s latest choppy performance. While Powell’s bearish tone may challenge the USD bulls, expectedly positive data from Canada might help the bears to tighten the controls. Technical analysis Failures to cross 50-day SMA and a descending trend line from September 30, respectively around 1.3208 and 1.3215, keep USD/CAD bears directed towards the monthly low near 1.3100.  

The latest Reuters poll of 25 economists revealed that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is seen cutting the Official Cash Rate to an all-time low o

The latest Reuters poll of 25 economists revealed that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is seen cutting the Official Cash Rate to an all-time low of 0.10% at its monetary policy meeting due on November 3 while expanding its quantitative easing (QE) program. Key findings As many as 21 of the 25 surveyed, or 84%, expect a 15 basis point cut to 0.10% at the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Nov. 3 board meeting. One economist predicted a 10 basis point cut to 0.15% while the remainder forecast no change. Analysts also predict the RBA would expand its government bond-buying programme. The dovish expectations strengthened after the RBA Governor Phillip Lowe said last week that further monetary policy easing remains on the cards while adding the board was mulling whether to expand its quantitative easing programme to include bonds with maturities beyond three years. At the press time, AUD/USD adds 0.18% to trade at 0.7092, with the upside capped by the Chinese Q3 GDP miss.

EUR/USD could slip back to the 1.1650 region in the next weeks, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted las

EUR/USD could slip back to the 1.1650 region in the next weeks, according to FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that EUR ‘is likely to test the major support at 1.1680 first before a rebound can be expected’. EUR subsequently dipped to 1.1692 before rebounding to a high of 1.1745. Downward pressure has eased and the current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase. For today, EUR is likely to trade sideways, expected to be between 1.1690 and 1.1750.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (14 Oct, spot at 1.1740), we held the view that EUR ‘is still in a consolidation phase but could test the bottom of the expected 1.1680/1.1800 range’. EUR did not quite test 1.1680 as it rebounded after touching a low of 1.1686 yesterday (15 Oct). Downward momentum is beginning to improve and the bias has shifted to the downside towards the next support at 1.1650. Only a break of 1.1790 would indicate the current mild downward pressure has eased. On a shorter-term note, 1.1765 is already a strong resistance level.”

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to extend gains above $1900, as the US dollar regains footing on Monday after the Chinese Q3 GDP disappointed and tempere

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to extend gains above $1900, as the US dollar regains footing on Monday after the Chinese Q3 GDP disappointed and tempered the risk-on market mood. The yellow metal remains in familiar trading ranges around the $1900 mark, underpinned by the hopes of a new US fiscal stimulus and vaccine optimism Gold settled last week in the red, holding onto $1900, keeping the buyers hopeful. Let’s see how gold is positioned on the charts.   Gold: Key resistances and supports The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the yellow metal remains capped below a major upside barrier at $1904, which is the convergence of the previous high four-hour, Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and SMA200 one-hour. The XAU bulls need to recapture the next critical level at $1907 (SMA5 one-day) to unleash the further upside, beyond which the $1910 (Bollinger Band one-hour Upper) level will get tested.   The next target for the buyers is aligned at $1915, the intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week and SMA200 four-hour. Alternatively, sellers aim for $1897, where the previous day low coincides with the SMA100 on four-hour. The next significant cushioned is placed at $1894, the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and pivot point one-day S1. A sharp sell-off could be triggered below the latter, opening floors for a test of $1883, powerful support comprising of the previous week low and Fibonacci 23.6% one-month. Here is how it looks on the tool   About Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

EUR/GBP remains on the back foot around 0.9055, down 0.21% intraday, while heading into Monday’s European session. The pair recently showed a little r

EUR/GBP pares intraday losses while taking rounds to the day’s bottom near 0.9050.U-turn from 21-day EMA, bearish MACD suggest further selling.Bulls will have to cross monthly resistance line to retake controls.ECB’s Lagarde spoke negative for the quote but Brexit woes seem to have settled the terms.EUR/GBP remains on the back foot around 0.9055, down 0.21% intraday, while heading into Monday’s European session. The pair recently showed a little reaction to further easy money signals from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The reason could be traced to the fears of no-deal Brexit. Read: ECB’s Lagarde: Options in the central bank’s toolbox have not been exhausted Even so, the pair’s weakness below 21-day EMA, amid bearish MACD, directs the quote towards a 100-day EMA Level of 0.9021. Should the bears keep the reins past-0.9021, the 0.9000 psychological magnet holds the key to the pair’s further weakness towards the 200-day EMA level near 0.8940 and the previous month’s low close to 0.8865. Meanwhile, the buyers are less likely to enter on the upside break of 21-day SMA, at 0.9081 now, as a falling trend line from September 22, currently around 0.9120, adds to the upside barriers. During the EUR/GBP bulls’ command past-0.9120, the monthly high of 0.9162 and the 0.9200 could gain the market attention. EUR/GBP daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Asia-Pacific equities surge on Monday while heading into the European session. The risk barometer benefited from the hints of breaking stimulus deadlo

Asian shares remain on the front foot, despite recent pullback, amid hopes of US stimulus, virus vaccine.China marked weaker than forecast Q3 GDP growth, Industrial Production and Retail Sales improved in September.Chatters surrounding China’s Ant Group, Brexit and Japan’s trade numbers were additional catalysts.Speeches from ECB and Fed Chiefs will be the key.Asia-Pacific equities surge on Monday while heading into the European session. The risk barometer benefited from the hints of breaking stimulus deadlock in the US as well as President Donald Trump’s signals of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine. Further to propel the mood was Ant group’s ability to get Chinese approval for listing in Hong Kong as well as hopes of soft Brexit. While cheering the mildly positive market mood, traders paid a little heed to China’s weaker than forecast Q3 GDP, as well as cheering upbeat figures of Industrial Production and Retail Sales. Furthermore, Japan’s downbeat Trade Balance also couldn’t disappoint the bulls. As a result, MSCI’s index of Asia- Pacific shares outside Japan rises 0.50% intraday to probe April 2018 tops whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 adds 1.15% to 23,680 by the time of the press. Further, Australia’s ASX 200 ignores China’s passage of a law to control exports but New Zealand’s NZX 50 fails to please the bulls even as Jacinda Ardern marked emphatic victory in the general elections. Moving on, stocks in China remain mildly offered while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rises 0.60%. South Korea’s KOSPI and Indonesia’s IDX Composite were among other soft gainers, mainly due to the COVID-19 woes at home. Though, India’s BSE Sensex rallies over 1.15% to 40,450 as easing virus numbers at home joins the broad market optimism. Looking forward, speeches from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely observed after the recently bearish phenomenon of the global central bankers. Other than the monetary hints, traders will be more interested to search for clues on the need for fiscal relief for near-term direction.

“The options in our toolbox have not been exhausted,” the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with Le Mondoe,

“The options in our toolbox have not been exhausted,” the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with Le Mondoe, published Monday.   more to come ...

FX option expiries for Oct 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1600 767m 1.1620 566m 1.1650 1.0bn

FX option expiries for Oct 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1600 767m 1.1620 566m 1.1650 1.0bn 1.1700 548m 1.1775 812m 1.1800 1.0bn 1.1850 659m - USD/JPY: USD amounts          105.00 557m 106.00 1.1bn - GBP/USD: GBP amounts         1.2800 216m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6575 230m 

Amid a relentless surge in the coronavirus cases in Britain, the government’s scientific adviser Jeremy Farrar said that a three-week period of nation

Amid a relentless surge in the coronavirus cases in Britain, the government’s scientific adviser Jeremy Farrar said that a three-week period of national lockdown restrictions needs to be imposed immediately to contain the COVID-19 spread. Key quotes “The current tiered restrictions will not bring the transmission rates down sufficiently or prevent the continued spread of the virus.” “A three-week period of nationally increased restrictions, with the right levels of financial support, will allow us to reset before winter, stop transmission spiralling, protect and prepare health services, give time to get the test-trace-isolate systems fully functional, and save lives.”

USD/CHF takes the bids near 0.9160, up 0.13% intraday, during the pre-European session open on Monday. The bullish MACD and a sustained break of 0.915

USD/CHF probes intraday high above 0.9150.Bullish MACD favor buyers but 100-bar SMA adds to the upside barriers.Sellers need downside break of three-day-old support line for fresh entries.USD/CHF takes the bids near 0.9160, up 0.13% intraday, during the pre-European session open on Monday. The bullish MACD and a sustained break of 0.9150 resistance, now support, favor the pair’s upside to a descending trend line from October 02, at 0.9163 now. However, the pair buyers will be more inclined to witness a clear upside beyond 100-bar SMA, currently around 0.9172, while targeting the 0.9200 threshold. Alternatively, USD/CHF bears are less likely to watch for any opportunities unless the quote stays above a short-term support line near 0.9125. Following that, the 0.9100 round-figure and the monthly low around 0.9085 hold the key to the further downside towards the September 10 low close to 0.9050 and the 0.9000 psychological magnet. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

According to the latest coronavirus statistics released by Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the European powerhouse reported 4,325 new infection

According to the latest coronavirus statistics released by Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the European powerhouse reported 4,325 new infections on Monday, highlighting the weekend effect.   more to come ....

Having recently stepped back from the intraday high of 1.2945, GBP/USD wobbles around 1.2925/30 while heading into Monday’s London open. Sterling buye

GBP/USD trims early-day gains, eases from 1.2945, while staying positive for the second consecutive day.Moody’s downgraded UK on Friday over virus woes, Brexit worries and budget problems for Tories, BOE’s Bailey also spoke bearish.EU’s Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier is up for visiting London, UK’s Gove earlier warned “the door is ajar”.US dollar regains even as risk tone cheers Trump’s push for stimulus, virus vaccine.Having recently stepped back from the intraday high of 1.2945, GBP/USD wobbles around 1.2925/30 while heading into Monday’s London open. Sterling buyers paid a little heed to the Brexit, coronavirus (COVID-19) woes at home while cheering risk-on mood off-late. However, fears of a no-deal divorce between the UK and the European Union (EU) join the BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s downbeat comments to probe the bulls. Also challenging the sentiment is the scheduled visit of the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier to England. Will Barnier’s arrival solve the case? UK Cabinet Minister Michael Gove’s clear show of disinterest in any further talks if the bloc keeps its head high raised barriers for Barnier’s next round of Brexit talks, to start from Monday in London. However, the recently easy comments from France, conveying that they’re to lose heavily while not leaving British fisheries terms, seem to push the region’s diplomat to witness hesitations in welcome. Even so, the matter is less likely to be solved as fisheries aren’t the only problem. The level playing field is another stumbling block. While identifying the risk, global rating agency Moody’s have already cut Britain’s rating to “Aa3” from “Aa2,” putting Britain on the same level as Belgium and the Czech Republic, on Friday. Also marking the show of pessimism was BOE Governor Bailey who cited significant downside risks to the economy ahead. The case is a bit positive on the other hand where US President Donald Trump’s comments that he wants the biggest stimulus plan than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s proposal seem to have favored the trading sentiment. Mr. Trump also signaled nearness to the virus vaccine, which in turn offered an additional boost to the stock futures and the US treasury yields. Meanwhile, a 32% spike was noted in the UK’s COVID-19 cases by the end of last week. The updates also suggest a 3.1% uptick in the death toll. This speaks louder of the Tory government’s inability to tame the pandemic with local lockdowns and signals national restrictions to arrive soon. Other than the virus woes, Brexit worries, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, at noon, will also be the key to watch while forecasting near-term GBP/USD moves. Technical analysis The pair rises following its formation of the bullish candlestick pattern on the daily (D1) chart the previous day. The bullish MACD conditions and the successful trading above 100-day SMA are extra price-positive signals that favor the GBP/USD bulls. As a result, the quote can again confront a 50-day SMA level of 1.3011 during its further upside. However, a confluence of the monthly top and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September month downside, near 1.3077/82, will question the additional rise of the pair. Meanwhile, Friday’s low and 100-day SMA, respectively around 1.2860 and 1.2840, can limit short-term declines of GBP/USD.  

EUR/USD struggles to draw bids despite improved risk appetite in the financial markets. The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day nea

EUR/USD sidelined after rejection at the bearish 5-day simple moving average. Asian stocks rise, but the risk-on fails to put a bid under the pair. Coronavirus concerns and dovish ECB expectations weigh on the euro. EUR/USD struggles to draw bids despite improved risk appetite in the financial markets.  The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near 1.1707, having faced rejection at the descending or bearish 5-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance at 1.1725 during the Asian trading hours. Risk recovery Major Asian indices like Japan's Nikkei and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 are flashing green alongside 0.5% gains in the S&P 500 futures. Stocks are seemingly drawing bids on expectations for additional US fiscal stimulus before the Nov. 3 Presidential Elections. Further, news that drugmaker Pfizer Inc could have a coronavirus vaccine ready in the United States by the end of this year looks to be powering gains in stocks.  Usually, stock market gains weigh over the greenback. However, this time, the risk-on isn't helping EUR/USD.  That's possibly due to rising economic uncertainty across the Eurozone, courtesy of the second wave of the coronavirus. Italy's cases swelled to a daily record on Sunday while the government prepared for new containment measures. Meanwhile, the US had a fifth consecutive day of infections over 50,000.  Besides, markets are pricing more ECB stimulus, as indicated by the US-German yield differential's recent widening.  Looking ahead, the pair may take cues from the German Bundesbank's monthly economic report and the ECB President Lagarde's speech, due during the European trading hours. During the North American trading hours, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech. Technical levels  

NZD/USD extends pullback from 0.6630 to 0.6615 during the early Monday. In doing so, the pair reverses from a confluence of 100-HMA and 38.2% Fibonacc

NZD/USD takes a U-turn from 0.6630 while trimming the intraday gains.Key Fibonacci retracements, short-term support lines can probe sellers.Bulls eye monthly top beyond 0.6630 resistance confluence.NZD/USD extends pullback from 0.6630 to 0.6615 during the early Monday. In doing so, the pair reverses from a confluence of 100-HMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 08-14 upside while also declining below 200-HMA. The recent downside also took clues from the RSI conditions that slants southwards while flashing 0.23% gains on a day. With the pair’s clear failures to cross the key resistances, coupled with RSI positions, the quote is likely to revisit the ascending trend line from October 15, at 0.6605 now. However, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6600 and a support line stretched from October 08, currently at 0.6585, can probe the bears for now. Meanwhile, 200-HMA near 0.6620 offers the immediate resistance to the pair ahead of the 0.6630 key upside barrier. If the NZD/USD manages to keep the reins after 0.6630, the monthly high of 0.6683 will be gain the buyers’ attention. NZD/USD hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

The bears look to be in control of AUD/NZD, but so far, last week's low has held ground. The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day ne

AUD/NZD holds support at 1.07, but bounce remains elusive. Technical charts are calling a deeper decline toward the 200-day SMA.The bears look to be in control of AUD/NZD, but so far, last week's low has held ground.  The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near 1.0709, having clocked a high and low of 1.0730 and 1.0710 early today.  AUD/NZD fell nearly 1.3% last week, erasing gains seen in the preceding two weeks and signaling a resumption of the sell-off from the August high of 1.1044.  The failed bearish channel breakout seen on the daily chart indicates the path of least resistance to the downside. Key indicators like the 14-day relative strength index and the MACD histogram are also painting a bearish picture.  As such, the odds appear stacked in favor of a decline below Thursday's low of 1.07. That would expose the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.0619. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Further headlines are crossing the wires from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) press conference, as a spokeswoman from the stats body says

Further headlines are crossing the wires from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) press conference, as a spokeswoman from the stats body says that the fourth quarter (Q4) will continue to face uncertainties from the external environment. Additional comments “Foreign trade's contribution to Q3 GDP growth was 0.6 percentage points.” “Capital formation's contribution to Q3 GDP growth was 2.6 percentage points. “ “Domestically speaking, most indicators are yet to be back to normal.” AUD/USD back below 0.7100 The below-forecasts Chinese growth numbers capped the rebound in the AUD/USD pair, as the pullback extends below 0.7100. At the press time, the aussie trades at 0.7089, still up 0.15%. The spot hit a daily high of 0.7108 just ahead of the Chinese data dump release.

According to the latest Bloomberg survey of analysts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to make any changes to its monetary policy settings when it

According to the latest Bloomberg survey of analysts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is unlikely to make any changes to its monetary policy settings when it meets next week. Although the central bank could extend the duration of its measures to counter the coronavirus pandemic by January. Key findings “The central bank to stand pat at the two-day gathering ending on Oct. 29.” “The bank is seen extending the deadline for two virus-linked funding programs and enlarged asset purchases at the meeting, 95% of them expect the decision by January.” “The economists see only slight tweaks to the BOJ’s growth outlook and no change to its price forecasts, including its -0.5% projection for the year ending in March.”

Uncertainty for companies and families will rise due to the coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions reimposed across the Eurozone to curb surging in

Uncertainty for companies and families will rise due to the coronavirus-induced lockdown restrictions reimposed across the Eurozone to curb surging infections, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Sunday, according to Bloomberg.  Key quotes The recovery remains uncertain, uneven, and incomplete. It is clear that both the fiscal and monetary policy support have to remain in place for as long as necessary and ‘cliff effects’ must be avoided. The service sector, which accounts for 75% of employment across the Eurozone, has been worst hit by the pandemic.  With inflation recently falling into the negative, the ECB is under pressure to announce mores stimulus by the end of the year.     

Gold is currently trading at $1,902, representing a 0.18% gain on the day. Having picked up a bid at $1,897 early today, the yellow metal is now looki

Gold picks up a bid, probes the lower end of a rising channel. Failure to retake bullish channel could invite stronger chart-driven selling.Gold is currently trading at $1,902, representing a 0.18% gain on the day.  Having picked up a bid at $1,897 early today, the yellow metal is now looking to re-enter the bearish channel represented by trendlines connecting Sept. 28 and Oct. 7 lows and Oct.2 and Oct. 12 highs.  If followed by a move below the session low of $1,897, a failure to retake the bullish channel would confirm an end of bounce from the Sept. 28 low of $1,848 and open the doors for a fresh sell-off.  Alternatively, a break above Friday's high of $1,913 would validate the bullish reading on the daily chart MACD histogram and shift the focus to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $1,924.  Daily chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels  

Ahead of the release of the German autumn economic forecasts, the Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said that the government is unlikely to make major r

Ahead of the release of the German autumn economic forecasts, the Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said that the government is unlikely to make major revisions to the estimates. The government expects the GDP to contract 5.8% in 2020 before rebounding by 4.4% next year. Key quotes “That of course assumes we will bring the pandemic under control, that we break the rapid increase in infections, and we succeed in returning to the situation we had from May to August.” “If we don’t get the numbers down, then we are going to face bigger problems.” 

AUD/USD trims intraday day gains while declining to 0.7098 after China flashed mixed economic releases during early Monday. The reason could also be t

AUD/USD slips from intraday high of 0.7109 despite snapping a two-day downtrend.China’s Q3 GDP came out weaker than expected, Retail Sales and IP data flashed upbeat signals for September.Markets turn cautiously optimistic on Trump’s comments, upbeat US data.AUD/USD trims intraday day gains while declining to 0.7098 after China flashed mixed economic releases during early Monday. The reason could also be traced from the upbeat market sentiment and the broad US dollar pullback. China’s third-quarter (Q3) GDP eased from 5.2% forecast to 4.9% YoY whereas Retail Sales and Industrial Production (IP) rose from 1.8% and 5.8% respective forecast to 3.3% and 6.9% actual releases in September. Read: China’s GDP expands 4.9% YoY in Q3 vs. +5.2% expected, AUD/USD battles 0.71 Market optimism favor bulls… Despite mixed signals, AUD/USD remains mostly upbeat, while marking the first positive day since last Wednesday, as traders’ optimism also favor the risk barometer. Risk tone remains positive after US President Donald Trump said he wants the biggest stimulus than House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s proposal. With this, Trump turned that table of allegations on Democrats. Earlier, the Republicans were considered market-negative with their lack of readiness to spend more, which in turn have contributed to downbeat polls for US President Trump versus Joe Biden. It should be noted that Democrat Pelosi has given an ultimatum to the White House to complete the COVID-19 relief package negotiations by Tuesday. Hence, hopes of immediate stimulus favor the market optimists to extend late Friday’s recovery in trading sentiment, mainly backed by the US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Also on the positive side were Trump’s comments suggesting the nearness to the virus vaccine. At home, further easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) led activity restrictions in the New South Wales (NSW) support the AUD/USD bulls. However, the global optimism remains challenged as traders doubt the US policymakers’ ability to provide any relief package before the presidential election. Also challenging the bulls are the fears of no-deal Brexit and further worsening of the pandemic in Europe. Additionally, China’s passage of a law to limit controlled exports and Taiwan’s attempt to overcome Chinese companies’ authority also probe the positive mood. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.70% to 3,485 whereas Australia’s ASX 200 gains over 1.0%, currently around 6,245, by the time of the press. Having witnessed the initial market reaction to China’s key data dump, market players await details of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, at noon, for immediate direction. Meanwhile, the risk catalysts can keep the driver’s seat with upbeat sentiment likely to favor AUD/USD buyers. Technical analysis A successful break above the 100-day SMA level of 0.7100 becomes necessary for the bulls to attack the 0.7205/12 area including 50-day SMA and a falling trend line from September 01. In the absence of which downward sloping RSI, not near to oversold conditions, can direct bears towards a four-month-old support line, at 0.7049 now.  

Following the release of the Q3 GDP and September activity numbers, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a statement, via Reuters, exp

Following the release of the Q3 GDP and September activity numbers, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a statement, via Reuters, expressing their outlook on the economic recovery. Key quotes “International environment remains complex and severe, considerable instability and uncertainties.” “China's economy still in process of recovery.”   developing story ...

AUD/JPY continues to trade in green even though the data released soon before press time showed China's economy expanded less-than-expected in the thi

AUD/JPY keeps gains as upbeat China Retail Sales overshadow dismal GDP numbers. The above-forecast Chin Industrial Production and risk-on support the AUD. AUD/JPY continues to trade in green even though the data released soon before press time showed China's economy expanded less-than-expected in the third quarter.  China's quarter-on-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 2.7%  versus expectations for 3.2% and down from the second quarter's 11.5% reading. The annualized GDP printed at 4.9%, also missing the forecast of 5.2%.  Even so, the China-sensitive AUD is keeping gains. AUD/JPY is currently trading at 74.81, representing a 0.33% gain on the day.  AUD's resilience could be attributed to the better-than-expected Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers for September. As represented by Retail Sales, consumer spending rose 3.3% year-on-year, beating the estimate of 1.8% growth by a big margin. Meanwhile, Industrial Production increased by 6.9% versus a forecast of 5.8%.  Besides, risk-on action in financial markets could be helping the AUD keep gains. Asian stocks are up alongside gains in the S&P 500 futures on renewed expectations for additional US fiscal stimulus and coronavirus vaccines before the end of the year.  Technical levels
 

China’s GDP arrives at +4.9% YoY in Q3, meets expectations. China’s September Retail Sales disappoint, Industrial Production beat estimates. AUD/USD

China’s GDP arrives at +4.9% YoY in Q3, meets expectations.China’s September Retail Sales disappoint, Industrial Production beat estimates.AUD/USD battles 0.71 on the mixed Chinese data dump.more to come ....

China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) below forecasts (5.2%) in 3Q: Actual (4.9%)

China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.8%) in September

China Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1.8%) in September: Actual (3.3%)

China Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 2.7%, below expectations (3.2%) in 3Q

China Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (5.8%) in September: Actual (6.9%)

The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, said recently that having just two new coronavirus cases across the state on Friday vindicated the severe lockd

The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, said recently that having just two new coronavirus cases across the state on Friday vindicated the severe lockdown measures imposed on Melburnians since August. Today, there are more signs that the virus is abating allowing for further loosening of the restrictions. Last week Andrews acknowledged the government would probably alter its targets to allow a more rapid reopening, saying it was likely “10 is the new five”. Meanwhile, there is a focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia expected to ease further as soon as next month by way of QE, a potential weight to the currency.     

The British pound draws bids and pushes GBP/JPY higher on Monday, with Britain's Brexit minister Michale Gove saying that doors are still ajar or slig

GBP/JPY rises to the 200-day SMA hurdle at 136.38. UK's Gove says doors still slightly open for Brexit deal. PM Johnson says Britain could have a simple deal based on free trade principles.The British pound draws bids and pushes GBP/JPY higher on Monday, with Britain's Brexit minister Michale Gove saying that doors are still ajar or slightly open for a Brexit deal.  The pair is currently trading near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 136.38, representing a 0.19% gain on the day, having picked up a bid at 135.83 during the early Asian trading hours. Gove said Sunday that the UK is "increasingly well-prepared" for a no-deal Brexit, which could disrupt supply chains across Europe, worsening the coronavirus-induced recession. As such, businesses have urged Britain and the European Union to find a compromise over trade terms. However, while Gove talked about Britain's preparedness, he left the doors open for negotiations, stating that talks could happen if the European Union (EU) moves ground in key areas.  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Friday that Britain should get ready for a deal based on simple global free trade principles similar to the one Australia has.  Apart from Gove's positive comments, the pair seems to be getting a push higher from the S&P 500 futures and Asian stocks' risk-on action.  Asian equities have begun the week on a positive note on renewed expectations for additional US fiscal stimulus and coronavirus vaccines before the end of the year.  Technical levels
 

EUR/CHF drops to 1.0723 during Monday’s Asian session. Even so, the Euro pair manages to print 0.06% intraday gains while stepping back from the day’s

EUR/CHF eases from intraday high of 1.0726, rises for the second consecutive day.MACD conditions, multiple upside barriers direct sellers to a two-day-old support line.EUR/CHF drops to 1.0723 during Monday’s Asian session. Even so, the Euro pair manages to print 0.06% intraday gains while stepping back from the day’s high. The pair’s latest declines could be cited as a U-turn from 100-HMA amid downbeat MACD histogram signals. As a result, the quote is likely to extend the latest weakness towards testing an ascending trend line from Thursday, at 1.0718 now. Though, a downside break of 1.0718 will not only challenge the 1.0700 threshold but will also direct the EUR/CHF bears towards the monthly low near 1.0685. On the flip side, a falling trend line from last Wednesday, at 1.0730 now, follows the 100-HMA level of 1.0725 immediate resistance. It’s worth mentioning that the 200-HMA level of 1.0750 and October 12 high near 1.0775 will lure the EUR/CHF buyers past-1.0725. EUR/CHF hourly chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

WTI is currently trading at $40.90 between the start of the week's range of $40.74 and $41.11 following a rather dull end to the week on Friday. We ha

WTI prices holding up despite the second wave of COVID-19.Strong support in energy markets coming in hopes of a vaccine and OPEC taper.WTI is currently trading at $40.90 between the start of the week's range of $40.74 and $41.11 following a rather dull end to the week on Friday.  We have conflicting signals in the market. The demand side concerns stem from the spread of the coronavirus far and wide of Europe and also in the United States.  ''Given how prone energy demand is to the nature of pandemic lockdowns, it is no surprise that crude prices have not been able to break higher in recent sessions,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.   ''But, with that said, the market has held resiliently strong despite the barrage of bearish COVID headlines.'' Sentiment was buoyed by the unexpectedly large drawdown in inventories in the US. An Energy Information Administration report showed that stockpiles of crude fell 3,818kbbl last week. Meanwhile, US economic data showing US retails sales were strong in September, while consumer sentiment rose in early October also helped to buoy the markets.  ''However, signs of stronger supply could negate the stronger demand,'' analysts at ANZ bank argued. ''Libya’s National Oil Corp lifted force majeure on its Sharara oil field, which could enable the country to lifts its exports to around 600kb/d. Exports have been virtually non-existent amid a long running civil war. '' Overall, the resurgence in coronavirus cases leading to new restrictions will continue to hamstring rallies and  will remain the primary risk for energy bulls at the moment. The latest from the weekend updates is that Paris goes into curfew starting Saturday, while France, Portugal and Italy all had new record daily case numbers.  ''Nonetheless, normalizing demand expectations, the prospect of stimulus and a vaccine post election, along with OPEC+ signaling a willingness to revise their planned tapering of the historic output deal, should all continue to offer strong support in energy markets,'' analysts at TD Securities argued. WTI levels  

S&P 500 Futures take the bids near $34.83, up 21.87 points or 0.63% intraday, during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Monday. The latest speech from

S&P 500 Futures snap four-day losing streak, gains 0.55% intraday.US President Trump teases biggest stimulus plan, signals virus vaccine to arrive soon.Pelosi gave Tuesday’s ultimatum to the White House for COVID-19 relief package talks.No-deal Brexit fears, virus wave 2.0 and news concerning China probe market bulls.S&P 500 Futures take the bids near $34.83, up 21.87 points or 0.63% intraday, during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Monday. The latest speech from US President Donald Trump helps the risk barometer to keep late Friday's optimism despite ingrained challenges to the market sentiment. Having earlier shown readiness for a short-term unemployment benefit plan, Trump said that he wants the biggest stimulus deal than US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s proposal. The Democratic member Pelosi earlier gave time till Tuesday night to the White House to wrap-up the coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus negotiations. Also on the market positive side is Trump’s comment that the COVID-19 vaccine will be out very soon. Alternatively, UK PM Boris Johnson’s preparations for the no-deal Brexit joins record high virus figures from Europe to challenge the risk-on sentiment. Further, China’s passage of a law to restrict controlled exports precedes Taiwan’s attempt to tighten technology transfer rules to Beijing-based companies while probing the optimists. Not only the US stock futures, stocks in Asia-Pacific and the US 10-year Treasury yields also portray the market optimism. However, fears that major issues like US stimulus, COVID-19 and Brexit are likely to remain unsolved keeps the risks tamed. It’s worth mentioning that the recovery in the US consumer-centric figures published on Friday, namely Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, also likely to have favored the market’s upbeat mood. While China’s third-quarter (Q3) GDP and September month’s data dump can offer immediate direction to global markets, traders will be interested in today’s speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chair Jerome Powell for fresh directions. Also, the European Union’s (EU) chief Brexit negotiator Michael Barnier is going to visit London for another effort to seal the trade deal on Monday and hence any updates from there will also be the key to follow.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.7010 versus Friday's fix at 6.7332. .

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.7010 versus Friday's fix at 6.7332. .

Silver tries to keep the day-start gains while taking rounds to $24.20, up 0.22% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white metal

Silver prints mild gains while piercing 50% Fibonacci retracement of October 06-12 upside.100-HMA offers immediate resistance ahead of confirming the bullish chart pattern on hourly (1H) formation.61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, Thursday’s low can challenge the bears.Silver tries to keep the day-start gains while taking rounds to $24.20, up 0.22% intraday, during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the white metal pierces the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the early-October upside. While the upbeat RSI conditions favor the bullion’s further recovery towards the 100-HMA level of $24.32, its additional rise will be tamed by the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders patterns, at $24.50 now. Should silver bulls manage to cross $24.50, the upside favoring chart play can propel the quote towards the $25.00 threshold ahead of challenging the monthly top near $25.55. Alternatively, the $24.00 round-figure can offer immediate support ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $23.90. Also acting as the key supports below $23.90 are Thursday’s low near $23.57 and the monthly bottom surrounding $23.05. Silver hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Te Pūtea Matua is taking on a new role of steward of the cash system “to preserve the benefits of cash for all who need them”, Assistant Governor Chr

 Te Pūtea Matua is taking on a new role of steward of the cash system “to preserve the benefits of cash for all who need them”, Assistant Governor Christian Hawkesby told the Royal Numismatics Society of New Zealand annual conference today (Wellington, Monday, 19 October 2020). “Cash is being used less as a means of payment and access to cash is declining. However, cash provides important benefits to many people, including legal tender money, social and financial inclusion, peer-to-peer payments, backup payments, and privacy and autonomy,” said Mr Hawkesby. Full speech There was no market reaction to the speech. On the data calendar, inflation numbers for 3Q will be the key highlight. The rising prospect of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand adding more monetary stimulus already in November is a weight on the currency. NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears wait for confirmation of the downside

Turkey's lira (TRY) has taken a beating over the past seven weeks, with the nation facing a balance of payment crisis, high inflation, and geopolitica

Turkey's lira (TRY) has taken a beating over the past seven weeks, with the nation facing a balance of payment crisis, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions.  The TRY fell by 1% to 7.93345 last week, the seven consecutive weekly decline. The currency is now down nearly 33% this year and has declined by 8% in the past seven weeks alone.  "Turkey is burning through its foreign exchange reserves like a house on fire," Prof Steven Hanke, an Economist at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, tweeted Sunday, adding that reserves have tanked by almost $10 billion to $41.12 billion since July. 

NZD/USD has been in rising across a short-term trendline support in an otherwise bearish longer-term environment. Bears are patiently waiting for a pr

NZD/USD bears are staying in control all the while below monthly resistance.The price remains, however, in a short term bullish environment.  NZD/USD has been in rising across a short-term trendline support in an otherwise bearish longer-term environment. Bears are patiently waiting for a price deterioration on a restest of near term strcuure.  The following is a top-down analysis of the pair illustrating where a bearish opportunity could arise.  Monthly chart The monthly chart is displaying the prospect of a reverse head and shoulders which offers a bearish bias while the price is below the monthly resistance. Weekly chart The weekly chart's correction is significant enough to expect an extension of the broader bearish trend to move towards completion of the reverse head and shoulders.  Daily chart Bulls are keeping the price elevated against critical trendline support. 4-hour chart The price is headed towards a key resistance structure within a resistance structure and testing the 21-moving average.  So long as the price holds below the structure, there is a higher probability that the bears will aim to capitalise on a break of the rising support line.  

With the coronavirus pandemic under control, China's economy could see consumption-driven economic growth of 2% this year, central bank governor Yi Ga

With the coronavirus pandemic under control, China's economy could see consumption-driven economic growth of 2% this year, central bank governor Yi Gang said on Sunday, Key quotes I think the accumulative growth for the first three quarters of this year will be positive. For the whole year, we predict China GDP growth of around 2%, The Chinese economy remains resilient with great potential. Continued recovery is anticipated, which will benefit the global recovery. Monetary policy should focus on domestic demand, domestic inflation targeting, and let the market decide the exchange rate.
 

USD/JPY seesaws around the intraday high of 105.48, up 0.06% on a day, as Tokyo opens for Monday’s trading. The yen pair recently picked up bids as US

USD/JPY takes the bids near intraday high, ignores Friday’s downbeat performance.Japan’s Nikkei 225, S&P 500 Futures benefit from hopes of US stimulus, virus vaccine.September month Trade Balance from Japan eased from ¥989.8 B forecast to ¥675 B.Powell’s speech, risk catalysts remain as the key amid a light calendar at home.USD/JPY seesaws around the intraday high of 105.48, up 0.06% on a day, as Tokyo opens for Monday’s trading. The yen pair recently picked up bids as US President Donald Trump rekindled hopes of a bigger stimulus package to combat the coronavirus (COVID-19) as well as giving assurance to have the vaccine soon. Though, no-deal Brexit fears join rising virus numbers from Europe to challenge the bulls. Trump tries to regain market confidence… Having initially played hard on the US Democrats’ easy money demands, which likely weigh his chances of winning in the upcoming presidential elections, Trump tries to convince the market that he is not the reason for the delay in the much-awaited stimulus package. In his latest comments, US President said he wants the biggest stimulus deal that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s plan. The White House Chief also mentioned that COVID-19 vaccines will be coming out very soon. Following the news, S&P 500 Futures gain half a percent to 3,480 whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 also began the day with nearly 1.0% upside. Furthermore, US 10-year Treasury yields offer additional risk-on play with 1.3 basis points (bps) of gains to 0.757% as we write. On the contrary, fears of hard Brexit have recently gained momentum after the Financial Times (FT) rolled out the news that the UK PM Boris Johnson is pushing British business to stay prepared for a no-deal Brexit. The latest European Union (EU) summit failed to solve the riddle even if UK PM Johnson stepped back from his earlier warning to leave the table after October 15. Furthermore, the virus numbers are rising in Europe and the UK, which in turn suggests another hit to the global economy even as it hasn’t overcome the first wave. On the data front, Japan’s September month Trade Balance shrank from ¥989.8 B market consensus to ¥675 B. Details suggest -17.2% figures for Imports versus -21.4% forecast while Exports have dropped from -2.4% expectations to -4.9% YoY during the stated month. Given the lack of data in Asia, except China’s third-quarter (Q3) GDP and September month’s data dump, USD/JPY traders may keep eyes on the risk catalysts for near-term direction. However, major attention will be given to the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, at noon, for a better view of the markets. Technical analysis Although 21-day EMA near 105.50 restricts immediate upside of USD/JPY, bears may remain cautious unless witnessing a clear downside break of an ascending trend line from September 23, at 105.05 now.  

EUR/USD fell nearly 1%, as widening US-German yield differential and the resurgence of coronavirus cases across the Eurozone weighed over the common c

EUR/USD drops despite a bull cross of major moving averages/Momentum indicators signal deeper losses could be in the offing.EUR/USD fell nearly 1%, as widening US-German yield differential and the resurgence of coronavirus cases across the Eurozone weighed over the common currency. The weekly drop contradicted the bullish crossover of the 50- and 100-week simple moving averages. That's hardly surprising, as longer duration SMA crossovers are based on backward-looking data and lag prices. More often than not, crossovers trap traders on the wrong side of the market.  The pair looks set to extend last week's decline with the daily chart reporting a failed bearish channel breakout, a bearish signal, and the weekly chart MACD histogram printing a deeper bar below zero, a sign of the strengthening of downward momentum.  Support is seen at 1.1688 (Thursday's low) and 1.1608 (100-day SMA), while resistance is located at 1.1752 (10-day SMA) and 1.18 (psychological hurdle).  Weekly chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

GBP/USD takes the bids near 1.2936, an intraday high of 1.2938, as markets in Tokyo open for trading. The pair rises following its formation of the bu

GBP/USD refreshes intraday high after the recent bullish candlestick formation on D1.Bullish MACD, sustained trading beyond 100-day SMA also favor the buyers.50-day SMA offers immediate resistance ahead of 1.3077/82 confluence.GBP/USD takes the bids near 1.2936, an intraday high of 1.2938, as markets in Tokyo open for trading. The pair rises following its formation of the bullish candlestick pattern on the daily (D1) chart the previous day. The bullish MACD conditions and the pair’s successful trading above 100-day SMA are extra price-positive signals that favor the GBP/USD bulls. As a result, the quote can again confront a 50-day SMA level of 1.3011 during its further upside. However, a confluence of the monthly top and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September month downside, near 1.3077/82, will question the additional rise of the pair. Meanwhile, Friday’s low and 100-day SMA, respectively around 1.2860 and 1.2840, can limit short-term declines of GBP/USD. It should, however, be noted that a clear downside break of 1.2840 will direct sellers towards the previous month’s low near 1.2675. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

GBP/AUD is currently trading at 1.8223 between a range of 1.8211 and 1.8254 in the open ahead of what could be a roller-coaster week pertaining to Bre

GBP/AUD under pressure as the bulls ease off the gas.GBP will be sensitive to Brexit headlines, while AUD could be subjected more so to risk-off flows.GBP/AUD is currently trading at 1.8223 between a range of 1.8211 and 1.8254 in the open ahead of what could be a roller-coaster week pertaining to Brexit headlines. GBP has been under pressure on the back a subsequent Moody downgrading of the UK credit rating by one notch to Aa3 over the huge economic hit from the coronavirus crisis, Brexit and the lack of clear budget plans from Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government. Moody’s said Britain’s growth had been “meaningfully weaker than expected and is likely to remain so in the future.” The downgrade was another blow for Johnson who is under fire from opposition parties and lawmakers in his Conservative Party for his handling of the pandemic, which has killed more people in Britain than anywhere in Europe. Meanwhile, the UK-EU trade negotiations are set to continue this week suggesting limited downside to GBP depending on the headline flow.  On the UK data front, we should see a modest uptick in both headline and core UK September CPI (Wednesday) from rather depressed levels. Also serving to weigh on the pound, the expectation of the extension of QE in the November's Bank of England meeting is being reflected through the value of the currency. The odds of negative rates, on the other hand, will be primarily driven by the outcome of the UK-EU trade negotiations. Looking ahead Ahead of the above, today's China Gross Domestic Product will be a keen focus for Aussie dollar traders. Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Phillip Lowe’s recent hint about an extension of the bond purchase programmes to longer (10Y) maturities has the market in anticipation of the move happening as soon as the 3rd November policy meeting. The minutes of the latest RBA policy meeting and a speech by Deputy Governor Guy Debelle may offer some more clarity for an Australian dollar that is now otherwise highly vulnerable to more risk-appetite contractions considering the easing bias at the central bank. GBP/AUD levels              AUD/USD ranged sideways between 0.7075 and 0.7095.

Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance up to ¥475.819B in September from previous ¥350.6B

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total registered at ¥675B, below expectations (¥989.8B) in September

Japan Imports (YoY) above expectations (-21.4%) in September: Actual (-17.2%)

Japan Exports (YoY) below expectations (-2.4%) in September: Actual (-4.9%)

Early Monday, the market sees the third quarter (Q3) GDP and annualized figures of September month Retail Sales and Industrial Production from the Nat

Early Monday, the market sees the third quarter (Q3) GDP and annualized figures of September month Retail Sales and Industrial Production from the National Bureau of Statistics of China at 02:00 GMT. The data will be the key considering its period that includes the dragon nation’s fading of recovery from the coronavirus (COVID-19)-led economic halt. Another reason for the importance of the said figures is recently positive surprises, by way of upbeat economics, from the world’s largest commodity user and Australia’s biggest customer. Forecasts suggest China’s Q3 GDP to print mixed outcomes with 3.2% QoQ and 5.2% YoY figures versus 11.5% and 3.2% respective market consensus. Further, Retail Sales and Industrial Production (IP) data bear positive forecasts of 1.8% and 5.8% versus 0.5% and 5.6% earlier readouts in that order. Westpac follows the market consensus while saying: China releases Q3 GDP and Sep activity data at 1:00 PM Sydney/10:00 am Singapore. Government stimulus has supported fixed asset investment, particularly in infrastructure and utilities; private investment growth is now accelerating too (August -0.3% ytd/yr, September market forecast: 0.9% ytd/yr). Industrial production is being bolstered by firmer domestic and external demand (August 5.6% YoY, September forecast: 5.8% YoY). Retail sales in Sep meanwhile were supported by the loosening of restrictions and spending ahead of ‘Golden Week’ (Aug 0.5% YoY, September forecast: 1.6% YoY). These broad-based gains will support a robust print for GDP in Q3 (prior: 3.2% YoY, market forecast: 5.5%yr, WBC forecast 5.8% YoY). How could it affect the AUD/USD? Given the headline numbers from the world’s largest industrial player’s fading recovery from the pandemic, the data will undoubtedly be the key for all traders, mainly for AUD/USD. It should also be noted that the figures from China have recently flashed upbeat outcomes and hence markets await the actual release amid mixed clues considering the virus resurgence in Europe. However, the data may be traded cautiously by the AUD/USD bulls considering the latest Sino-Aussie tussle. Even so, the outcome could provide wild swings to the markets but gains to the Aussie pair are likely to be tamed even if the actual reacting print upbeat results. Technically, the pair’s clear break of 100-day SMA gains joins normal RSI conditions to direct bears towards a four-month-old support line, at 0.7049 now. Also acting as the key rest-point is the 0.7000 threshold. On the upside, a clear break of 0.7100, comprising the said SMA, may push AUD/USD prices towards the 0.7205/12 area including 50-day SMA and a falling trend line from September 01. Key NotesAUD/USD: Bears eye key support below 0.7100 ahead of China GDPAUD/USD Forecast: Bearish pressure mounts after Lowe hints a rate cutAbout China’s GDP    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy has an influence on the global economy, this economic event would have an impact on the Forex market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or Bearish). About China's Industrial Production Industrial output is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the CNY (and AUD), whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY (and AUD). About China's Retail Sales The Retail Sales report released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China measures the total receipts of the retailed consumer goods. It reflects the total consumer goods that the various industries supply to the households and social groups through various channels. It is an important indicator to study the changes in the Chinese retail market and reflecting the degree of economic prosperity. In general, A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.

New Zealand Business NZ PSI climbed from previous 46.9 to 50.3 in September

WTI prints mild gains of 0.50% while trading near $41.25 ahead of Monday’s Tokyo open. In doing so, the energy benchmark again tries to provide a bull

WTI buyers attack upper line of a seven-day-old symmetrical triangle.Sustained trading beyond 200-bar SMA, normal RSI favor buyers.A two-day-long rising trend line offers immediate support.WTI prints mild gains of 0.50% while trading near $41.25 ahead of Monday’s Tokyo open. In doing so, the energy benchmark again tries to provide a bullish breakout to the triangle formation established from October 08. Considering the normal RSI conditions and the quote’s ability to rise in the last two days, as per the immediate rising trend line, buyers are likely to cross the $41.50 immediate resistance. Following that, September 04 high near $42.10 holds the key to the commodity’s further upside towards the late-August lows surrounding $43.50. Alternatively, a downside break of the nearby support line, at $40.78 now, can recall sellers to attack the $39.70-60 support zone comprising 200-bar SMA and the triangle’s support. In a case where the oil prices slip below $39.60, the $39.00 round-figure and the monthly low near $36.80 could be WTI sellers’ favorites. WTI four-hour chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

Gold drops to $1,900.45, after the day-start uptick from $1,898 to $1,903, during the early Monday morning in Asia. The yellow metal initially cheered

Gold prices trim the early-day gains to $1,903.12, look for a firm direction on the daily chart.Risk tone recovers as US President Trump wants a bigger plan after House Speaker Pelosi gave Tuesday’s deadline to the White House.Brexit worries, virus woes challenge market optimism, China data dump eyed.Gold drops to $1,900.45, after the day-start uptick from $1,898 to $1,903, during the early Monday morning in Asia. The yellow metal initially cheered recently increased hopes of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus. However, fears of no-deal Brexit and a wider wave 2.0 of COVID-19 challenged the bulls. Will Tuesday break the US stimulus deadlock? Having received an ultimatum to wrap-up the COVID-19 aid package talks from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, President Donald Trump crossed wires while saying that he wants a bigger plan than Pelosi. This is one of the many turns that US President Trump took after getting infected from the deadly virus. The reason could be spotted from his receding market favorite status as far as the November month’s presidential election is concerned. Read: US Pres. Tump: Want a bigger stimulus deal than Pelosi's plan However, the stalemate between the Democrats and Republicans are likely to continue as none wants to compromise while considering the political aspect ahead of the key elections. Even if Congress manages to break the monotony, passing of the law and availing the stimulus to the Americans will be a challenge less likely to be completed before the votes. On the other hand, China marked another show of its fearless attitude towards the global ire over its export leader status. While passing a law to restrict the controlled export items, Beijing tried to defy calls, mainly amplified by the US, that it dumps the markets after entering any. This signifies the Sino-American rivalry and may weigh on the risk-tone. Elsewhere, UK PM Boris Johnson is pushing British businesses to prepare for a no-deal Brexit after multiple failures to reach a trade deal with the European Union (EU) while the pandemic’s growth in the bloc, including London, also threatens the optimists. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures mark 0.40% intraday gains to 3,477. Looking forward, China’s third-quarter (Q3) GDP, coupled with September month’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales, will be watched for immediate direction while also giving priority to the risk catalysts. The key GDP is expected to rise to 5.2% YoY versus 3.2% prior and may extend the recent shift in the market’s mood. Also can favor the bulls are Industrial Production and Retail Sales that are anticipated to rise from 5.6% and 0.5% respective priors to 1.8% and 5.8%. Technical analysis Unless breaking a confluence of two-month-old resistance line and 50-day SMA, currently around $1,925/28, sellers can keep attacking an upward slopping trend line from September 28, at $1,893 now, to gain the short-term entry pass.  

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) increased to 5.5% in October from previous 5%

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) up to 1.1% in October from previous 0.2%

US President Donald Tump, speaking to reporters, has said that he ''wants a bigger stimulus deal than Pelosi's plan''. Prospects for U.S. fiscal stimu

US President Donald Tump, speaking to reporters, has said that he ''wants a bigger stimulus deal than Pelosi's plan''. Prospects for U.S. fiscal stimulus before Election Day dimmed last week with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi demanding the White House revamp its latest offer and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell pushing a smaller-scale strategy that Pelosi quickly rejected.  US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that President Donald Trump would "weigh in" with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell if an agreement is reached on a new pandemic relief package. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, however, said he does not expect an agreement to be reached ahead of the Nov. 3 election as long as Pelosi is involved. McConnell’s proposal to vote next week on just one provision replenishing funds in the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses appeared to stoke opposition even from President Donald Trump, who tweeted “Go big or go home!!” Pelosi told House Democrats on a call Tuesday that McConnell’s proposal was a non-starter, according to participants. She warned that Democratic priorities would be cut in any deal based on such an agreement, they said. In the wake of Trump’s “go big” tweet, she told colleagues that the Democratic side has more leverage than ever, three participants said. Due to the lack of traction in talks, equities were struggling to stay above water last week, with both the Dow and S&P 500 losing ground for three of the five business days.

The price of USD/CAD is under pressure and a significant weekly correction opens the prospect of a downside continuation towards 1.3050. The following

USD/CAD bears await break of support and retest for confirmation. 1.3050 is on the radar while below 1.3180.The price of USD/CAD is under pressure and a significant weekly correction opens the prospect of a downside continuation towards 1.3050.  The following is a top-down analysis that illustrates where a setup can be established on further deterioration in the price to below the current support structure.  Monthly chart The monthly outlook remains bearish as the price fails the break resistance, so far, on a correction of the monthly downside. Weekly chart The weekly chart shows that there has been a significant enough correction of the latest weekly completed candlesticks. Daily chart The same can be said for the daily chart as the price corrects to structure and fails to the upside.  4-hour chart The bears can map out a target of 1.3050 in a Fibonacci extension. A stop loss can be placed above the structure and a sell limit can be placed below it as soon as the environment turns more bearish.  As it stands, the price is supported b the 21 moving average and prior structure. 

AUD/JPY rises to 74.70 during the early Asian session on Monday. Although the pair gained bids in the last hour, a short-term symmetrical triangle res

AUD/JPY picks up the bids inside a two-day-old symmetrical triangle.50-HMA adds strength into the triangle resistance, one-week-long falling trend line, 200-HMA offer extra upside barriers.September low can lure bears after the triangle’s downside break.AUD/JPY rises to 74.70 during the early Asian session on Monday. Although the pair gained bids in the last hour, a short-term symmetrical triangle restricts immediate moves. However, a falling trend line from October 11 and key HMAs probe the bulls. As a result, the pair’s run-up below the 200-HMA level of 75.52 is less likely to please the bulls. Though, a clear break above 74.71 resistance confluence, comprising the triangle’s resistance and 50-HMA, can help AUD/JPY buyers to attack 74.95. In a case where the quote crosses 75.52, the 76.00 threshold and the monthly high of 76.52 will gain market attention. On the contrary, a downside break of the triangle’s support, near 74.50, can challenge the monthly bottom surrounding 74.25 ahead of directing AUD/JPY prices towards the previous month’s low of 73.97. During the pair’s sustained trading below 73.97, June 12 low of 72.52 will be in the spotlight. AUD/JPY hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

AUD/USD recovers from an intraday low of 0.7071 to 0.7085 amid the initial hours of Monday’s Asian trading. The aussie pair consolidates the latest we

AUD/USD consolidates losses below 0.7100 after snapping a two-week uptrend.Trading sentiment remains challenged amid extended US stimulus deadlock, Brexit and virus woes.RBA’s dovish rhetoric, China’s tough stand against the global dislike also favor bears.Chinese Q3 GDP, September month data dump will join risk catalysts to please the momentum traders.AUD/USD recovers from an intraday low of 0.7071 to 0.7085 amid the initial hours of Monday’s Asian trading. The aussie pair consolidates the latest week’s heavy losses, the first in the previous three, while battling with the challenges to market risks. Among the leading ones, US aid package stalemate and the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes join the Sino-America and China-Australia tussle to weigh on the quote. Bears haven’t gone home… Despite the extension of late Friday's risk recovery, mainly backed by the upbeat US data, AUD/USD bulls are finding it hard to retake the controls. The reason could be traced from no clarity over the US COVID-19 relief package as well as the further worsening of the pandemic in Europe. Additionally, China’s fight against the world, recently for export of controlled items, also weighs on the market’s mood and the pair. Having initially banned Aussie coal and cotton, China recently passed a law to limit exports of its controlled items. This shows Beijing’s readiness to combat global criticism to dump the markets with exports and should heavy the risks. Elsewhere, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi gave time till Tuesday night to the White House for reaching an agreement over the relief package. While the news should raise hopes of the much-awaited stimulus, fears that the Democratic-Republican will remain and may not offer any results ahead of the Presidential elections prevail. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print 0.30% gains to 3,475 by the time of the press. It’s worth mentioning that Friday’s US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index favored the market’s risk-tone with upbeat prints for September and October months respectively. As a result, AUD/USD traders will keep eyes on China’s third-quarter (Q3) GDP, expected 5.2% YoY versus 3.2% prior, to extend the recent shift in the market’s mood. Also likely to favor the bulls are September month’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales from Beijing. The figures are anticipated to rise from 5.6% and 0.5% respective priors to 1.8% and 5.8%. It should, however, be noted that the challenges to risk stand tall to keep the AUD/USD bulls tamed and hence any surprise negative news can dim the data impact to favor the bears. Technical analysis A clear break of 100-day SMA gains support from downward sloping RSI, not near to oversold conditions, to direct bears towards a four-month-old support line, at 0.7049 now. Also acting as the key rest-point is the 0.7000 threshold. On the upside, a clear break of 0.7100, comprising the said SMA, may push AUD/USD prices towards the 0.7205/12 area including 50-day SMA and a falling trend line from September 01.  

The Financial Times (FT) came out with the news, on early Monday morning in Asia, confirming the market speculations that UK PM Boris Johnson is on th

The Financial Times (FT) came out with the news, on early Monday morning in Asia, confirming the market speculations that UK PM Boris Johnson is on the way to push British business for a no-deal Brexit. The report suggests the usage of an advertising campaign to publicize customs rules as an initial effort to ward off nearly 50% lack of preparedness for the hard Brexit. The piece cites the latest failure of the UK and European Union (EU) policymakers to agree over the Brexit terms. Although Britain refrained from leaving the negotiation table despite the expiry of the October 15 deadline, PM Johnson has told EU diplomat Michael Barnier to come to London for Brexit only if he is prepared to ready to step back from the previously hardstand. Also read: British officials prepared to water down Boris Johnson’s lawbreaking Brexit legislation Key notes (UK’s Cabinet Office Minister Michael) Gove and Mr. Johnson will make it clear that businesses need to prepare for January 1 regardless of whether a trade deal is agreed upon; government officials said that 80 percent of actions were required “deal or no deal”. The decision to leave the customs union and single market will generate an estimated 215m customs declarations annually, costing business £7bn, and Mr. Gove has not contested industry estimates that 50,000 private sector customs agents will have to be hired to deal with the red tape. FX implications With the increasing odds of a no-deal Brexit, GBP/USD sellers attack 1.2900 following the news. Even so, the Sterling traders will wait for updates from the UK to determine near-term trend while also paying close attention to other key risk catalysts like the US stimulus and the coronavirus (COVID-19) wave 2.0 in Europe.

The Financial Times (FT) came out with the news, on early Monday morning in Asia, confirming the market speculations that UK PM Boris Johnson is on th

The Financial Times (FT) came out with the news, on early Monday morning in Asia, confirming the market speculations that UK PM Boris Johnson is on the way to push British business for a no-deal Brexit. The report suggests the usage of an advertising campaign to publicize customs rules as an initial effort to ward off nearly 50% lack of preparedness for the hard Brexit. The piece cites the latest failure of the UK and European Union (EU) policymakers to agree over the Brexit terms. Although Britain refrained from leaving the negotiation table despite the expiry of the October 15 deadline, PM Johnson has told EU diplomat Michael Barnier to come to London for Brexit only if he is prepared to ready to step back from the previously hardstand. Also read: British officials prepared to water down Boris Johnson’s lawbreaking Brexit legislation Key notes (UK’s Cabinet Office Minister Michael) Gove and Mr. Johnson will make it clear that businesses need to prepare for January 1 regardless of whether a trade deal is agreed upon; government officials said that 80 percent of actions were required “deal or no deal”. The decision to leave the customs union and single market will generate an estimated 215m customs declarations annually, costing business £7bn, and Mr. Gove has not contested industry estimates that 50,000 private sector customs agents will have to be hired to deal with the red tape. FX implications With the increasing odds of a no-deal Brexit, GBP/USD sellers attack 1.2900 following the news. Even so, the Sterling traders will wait for updates from the UK to determine near-term trend while also paying close attention to other key risk catalysts like the US stimulus and the coronavirus (COVID-19) wave 2.0 in Europe.

NZD/USD struggles to keep the week-start uptick of 0.6612, while also keeping the 0.6600 threshold, as Monday’s trading begins. The pair’s initial ris

NZD/USD begins the week’s trading with an upside gap beyond 0.6600.Jacinda Ardern secured an emphatic victory in general elections by securing 49.1% votes.China passed a law to restrict controlled exports, US stimulus deadlock, virus woes continue.Risk catalysts can keep the driver’s seat despite the important China data dump.NZD/USD struggles to keep the week-start uptick of 0.6612, while also keeping the 0.6600 threshold, as Monday’s trading begins. The pair’s initial rise of 13 pips from Friday’s close could be attributed to Jacinda Ardern’s status-quo in New Zealand’s general elections. However, challenges to the market’s risk sentiment probe the bulls despite Friday’s moderate environment, mainly due to upbeat US data and stimulus hopes. Labour gains parliamentary majority, Ardern stays as PM… With early results projecting Labour to have 64 out of 120 seats in New Zealand’s Parliament, the rare outright majority speaks louder of Jacinda Ardern’s popularity. While the ruling party is likely to keep their alliance with the Greens, PM Ardern will have a free hand to push the kiwi towards Pacific leadership. During her first speech, the winner signaled to form a government in 2-3 weeks while citing a little interest in keeping Greens in all the positions as they previously were. Although the result favors a bright future for the New Zealand dollar (NZD), bearish RBNZ and risk-off mood probes the NZD/USD buyers. Read: New Zealand election: Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party scores landslide win Among the many indicators that question market optimism, failures of the US Congress to provide the much-awaited coronavirus (COVID-19) relief package gain major attention. While US President Donald Trump’s recent easing of government strings have raised hopes of a stimulus outcome, the Democrats’ deadline to have an agreement by Tuesday makes the case serious. Elsewhere, rising COVID-19 numbers in Europe, coupled with brakes in leading vaccine trials, threaten traders of much economic hardship ahead. Further, China’s tussle with the US, the UK and Australia also becomes a worrisome point for NZD/USD bulls. Having recently banned some Aussie items and warned America over its alliance with Taiwan, Beijing announced the law to limit controlled exports to shrug off the global wave of limiting items from the Asian major. On the data side, US economics have been mixed while those from New Zealand have also signaled RBNZ’s need for intervention. Friday’s US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment helped the market to recover some of the losses. New Zealand’s September month Business NZ PSI grew from upwardly revised 47.2 to 50.3 in its release on Monday. Moving on, China’s September month Industrial Production and Retail Sales will accompany the third quarter (Q3) GDP to entertain Asian traders. Upbeat forecasts are likely to favor the Antipodeans if risk factors allow. Technical analysis Repeated bounces off 100-day SMA, currently around 0.6585, coupled with mildly positive MACD on the daily chart, favor the bulls to remain hopeful unless breaking an ascending trend line from June 30, at 0.6545 now.  

The November 3rd election is just 16 days away as the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi has given the White House a deadline of Tuesday to reach an agreem

The November 3rd election is just 16 days away as the US House speaker Nancy Pelosi has given the White House a deadline of Tuesday to reach an agreement on a stimulus package.  The Senate plans to vote Tuesday on a stand-alone bill to renew payroll protections which doesn't include any direct payments potentially kicking off a clash between the Senate and President Donald Trump, who wants to send $1,200 stimulus checks.  The equity markets will be tuned into the developments of this throughout the week. S&P500 Weekly Forecast: Choppy trading action expected to continue    
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