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Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the North American oil benchmark, is currently trading at $41.55, representing a 0.36% decline on the day. Th

WTI recovers from session lows and eyes resistance of Sept. 18 high of  $41.72. Daily chart indicators favor a breakout above the key hurdle. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the North American oil benchmark, is currently trading at $41.55, representing a 0.36% decline on the day. The black gold has recovered from the session low of $41.12 and is fast approaching resistance at $41.72 (Sept. 18 high).  While the bulls failed to establish a foothold above that level on Monday, they ended up carving out a bullish outside day candle. That, coupled with the above-50 or bullish reading on the 14-day relative strength index and the positive value on the MACD histogram, suggests scope for a breakout above $41.72. That would expose the 2020 high of $43.78 reached on Aug. 26.  A bearish reversal would be confirmed if the resistance at $41.72 holds and sends prices back below Tuesday's low of $40.46.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish above $41.72 Technical levels    

According to the latest coronavirus statistics released by Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the European powerhouse reported 5,186 new infection

According to the latest coronavirus statistics released by Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the European powerhouse reported 5,186 new infections on Wednesday. The total tally stands now stands at 380,762. The deaths rose by 26, with the total count seen at 9,875. The daily death rise, however, eased when compared with Tuesday’s +47.   more to come ...

Goldman Sachs said Monday in a note that a "blue wave" of victories in next month's US Presidential Elections that would give Democrats control of bot

Goldman Sachs said Monday in a note that a "blue wave" of victories in next month's US Presidential Elections that would give Democrats control of both houses of parliament could lead to a whopping $2.5 trillion new stimulus plan. Key quotes (Source: Bloomberg) The stimulus plan would likely include a stimulus package in Q1, followed by infrastructure and climate legislation. In this scenario, we would expect legislation expanding health and other benefits, financed by tax increases, to pass in Q3. The boost to growth from fiscal stimulus would outweigh the adverse effects of tax increases, particularly because the increased tax revenue would finance fund new spending. The spending would only widen the already record budget gap, putting upward pressure on borrowing costs. The US 10-year yield rose to a high of 0.80% early Thursday, the highest level since June 10.
 

Rating agency Fitch said on Wednesday that New Zealand's fiscal prudent management will mitigate risks associated with a potential rise in public spen

Rating agency Fitch said on Wednesday that New Zealand's fiscal prudent management will mitigate risks associated with a potential rise in public spending over the next few years.  Key quotes New Zealand's election gives Labour stronger control over policy. The resurgence of coronavirus in New Zealand could stall economic recovery and add further pressure to public finances. Election outcome reinforces the expectation that fiscal policy will evolve in line with PREFU. The prime minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, won elections last Saturday, delivering the biggest victory for the center-left Labour Party in half a century, according to The Telegraph online. 

Gold (XAU/USD) buyers are finally extending their control above $1900, rejoicing the renewed optimism over the US fiscal stimulus. The safe-haven US d

Gold (XAU/USD) buyers are finally extending their control above $1900, rejoicing the renewed optimism over the US fiscal stimulus. The safe-haven US dollar wilts amid a risk-on market mood after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin moved closer to an agreement on a fresh coronavirus relief package late Tuesday. Markets remain hopeful that the stimulus deal will be clinched ahead of the November election and the new funds will boost the demand for gold as an inflation hedge. The stimulus talks are likely to continue this Wednesday. Let’s take a look at how gold is positioned on the charts. Gold: Key resistances and supports The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the yellow metal has recaptured critical resistances and now looks to take on the next minor cap at $1925, which is the confluence of the pivot point one-day R2 and SMA50 one-day. Further north, the bulls will test a soft upside barrier at $1929 (pivot point one-week R1), opening doors for a test of the critical resistance at $1939, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-month. To the downside, $1915 is strong support, which the convergence of the previous day high and Fibonacci 61.8% one-week. A break below the last support, the SMA50 on four-hour at $1909 could offer some reprieve to the bulls. Acceptance below the latter could challenge the bears’ commitment at $1905, the meeting point of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, SMA5 one-day and previous low on four-hour.   Here is how it looks on the tool   About Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence

GBP/JPY is currently trading near resistance at 136.74, representing a 0.10% gain on the day, having picked up a bid at 136.39 early Wednesday. The re

GBP/JPY tests confluence of key technical levels at 136.74. A move above Oct. 19's high is needed to confirm a breakout.GBP/JPY is currently trading near resistance at 136.74, representing a 0.10% gain on the day, having picked up a bid at 136.39 early Wednesday.  The resistance at 136.74 marks the confluence of the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from the Sept. 1 high of 142.71 to Sept.22 low of 133.04.  Acceptance above that level would expose the Oct. 19 high of 137.26. A close higher would invalidate the bearish view put forward by the long tail attached to Oct. 19's daily candle and yield stronger gains.  Alternatively, a failure to take out resistance at 136.74, if followed by a move below 136.39 (Asian session low) would confirm a reversal lower, and open the doors to 135.74 (Oct. 16 low).  Daily chartTrend: Neutral Technical levels    

Recent milk price forecasts from the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) flashes positive signals for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The kiwi bank revised up its

Recent milk price forecasts from the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) flashes positive signals for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The kiwi bank revised up its 2020/21 prediction from NZD 6.5 per kilogram (KG) to 6.8 recently. Earlier, the global leader in the dairy industry, Fonterra also increased their expectations for milk prices while marking the NZD 6.8 level for the said period. It’s worth mentioning that as per the latest fortnightly data from the Global Dairy Trade, the prices of the Whole Milk Powder (WMP) also grew 0.3%. Market implications NZD/USD pierces 0.6600, up 0.42% intraday, by press time of early Wednesday. New Zealand’s economy depends majorly on the dairy industry and hence any positive news for the same can help the NZD bulls. Also adding to the pair’s upside momentum could be the recently increased odds of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus. Read: NZD/USD Price Analysis: Defensive Bears moving to breakeven

Analysts at Deutsche Bank offer probable outcomes of the November US Presidential election and their impact on the Chinese yuan against the greenback.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank offer probable outcomes of the November US Presidential election and their impact on the Chinese yuan against the greenback. Key quotes “A Biden win in the US presidential election would lead to a weaker USD/yuan, irrespective of which party controls the Senate.” “If Biden wins but the Senate stays in the hands of the Republicans, the result is less aggressive fiscal policy but likely places more pressure on Fed to ease again. Thus, meaning more pressure for CNY strength.” “If Biden wins and Senate majority switches to Democrats, it would result in larger fiscal stimulus, which would weigh on USD/yuan and also would boost EUR and yen.“ "If China and the US still embrace the 'decoupling' momentum set in train by Trump, this is negative for USD reserve accumulation and enhances the spillover from USD/CNY onto strength in other reserve currencies."

The US 10-year treasury yield jumped to multi-month highs on Wednesday, extending a four-day rising trend. The yield rose to 0.80%, the highest level

The US 10-year treasury yield jumped to multi-month highs on Wednesday, extending a four-day rising trend.  The yield rose to 0.80%, the highest level since June 10, representing an 11 basis point gain on the low of 0.69% observed on Oct. 15, according to data source TradingView.  The US fiscal largesse looks to be putting upward pressure on yields. The nation's budget gap tripled to a record high of $3.1 trillion in the year ended Sept. 30 as the government rolled out stimulus programs to counter the coronavirus-induced economic slowdown.  Besides, with the US planning to deliver additional stimulus soon, the budget gap will widen further. As such, yields could continue to rise and potentially attract bids for the US dollar.  That said, so far, the dollar has struggled to cheer the recent rise in yields. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback's value against majors, is currently trading at 92.99, the lowest level since Sept. 21.

Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policymaker Makoto Sakurai continues to throw more light on the monetary policy and inflation outlooks in his scheduled speech t

Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policymaker Makoto Sakurai continues to throw more light on the monetary policy and inflation outlooks in his scheduled speech this Wednesday. Key quotes “Monetary policy, albeit indirectly, can help the economy make structural changes.” “Japan will see an increase in bankruptcies, job losses and fall in potential growth if it takes longer than expected to contain the pandemic.” “If banks become saddled with more bad loans, their financial health may be hurt and lead to a decline in the financial system's functioning.” “If financial system risks heighten, that could weigh on the real economy.” “Japan financial institutions have sufficient buffers now but BOJ must be prepared to take necessary, swift action with an eye on the economy, financial system.” “Near-term challenge for monetary policy is to support efforts toward striking a balance between the need to contain the pandemic, prop up the economy.” “Medium-, long-term challenge in guiding monetary policy is to ensure Japan’s financial system remains stable.” “BOJ must underpin inflation expectations, ensure they are in positive territory, as the private sector may hold off on spending if the project price falls ahead.” “BOJ’s pledge to maintain an accommodative monetary policy, increase monetary base until inflation stably hits its target playing a crucial role in supporting the economy.” “Japan prices coming under strong downward pressure, inflation may not accelerate much even after price growth turns positive.” “Sluggish price growth is something not unique to Japan, issue has become a common problem for major advanced economies. “ “Question of why inflation no longer accelerating is something that needs to be looked into anew sincerely.” USD/JPY slides to session lows within narrow range as US dollar melts  

Silver takes the bids near $24.99, an intraday high of $25.02, during the early Wednesday’s trading. In doing so, the white metal rises for the third

Silver refreshes one week high after crossing a descending trend line from September 15.Bullish MACD, successful trading above 100-day SMA offer conviction to buyers.Silver takes the bids near $24.99, an intraday high of $25.02, during the early Wednesday’s trading. In doing so, the white metal rises for the third consecutive day, while also refreshing the one week high, as it breaks a short-term falling resistance line. Not only the sustained break of the previous resistance but bullish MACD and the bullion’s ability to stay beyond 100-day EMA also favors the buyers. As a result, silver bulls are raging for the monthly high of $25.56 ahead of targeting the early-September lows near $25.85. During the metal’s upside past-$25.85, the $26.00 round-figure holds the key to a run-up towards the 10-week-old resistance line around $27.00. Alternatively, the commodity’s pullback below the $24.80 support line will highlight an upward sloping trend line from September 24, at $24.00 now, before directing the silver sellers towards the 100-day SMA level of $23.07. Silver daily chart Trend: Bullish  

USD/JPY is about flat on the day at 105.39 at the time of writing. The US dollar has been bleeding out which is giving the bears the edge, however. Th

USD/JPY bears taking the reins as the dollar slides.The clock is ticking, US stimulus talks will continue later today. USD/JPY is about flat on the day at 105.39 at the time of writing. The US dollar has been bleeding out which is giving the bears the edge, however. The US stimulus saga continues and it is up in the air just as it ever was. The US House Speaker Pelosi said she’s optimistic a deal could be reached, but there is no realisation of such sentiment. The clock is ticking, yet talks will continue later today.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell said if a comprehensive stimulus package comes to the Senate that has been passed by the House and is backed by President Trump, “we would consider it”. Meanwhile, the Republican Senator Thune said that “it would be hard” to find enough GOP members to back a $1.8 trillion stimulus and an after the bell comments from the White House chief of staff Mike Meadows said the sides still had a way to go.   US 2-year Treasury yields remained around 0.15%, while the 10-year yield rose from 0.76% to 0.79%.  Meanwhile, global COVID-19 case numbers have now topped 40 million which is keeping risk appetite at bay. ''The recent resurgence putting pressure on European policymakers to intensify restrictions, and in the US ensuring that COVID-19 remains front and centre as the election approaches,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. ''Large swathes of the UK are now under the most severe Tier 3 rules, feeding expectations of additional monetary policy easing.'' USD/JPY levels  

The dollar index (DXY), which gauges the greenback's value against major currencies, is extending its three-day losing streak. At press time, the DXY

Dollar index hits multi-week lows below 93.00 as S&P 500 futures rise. The greenback extends a three-day losing streak amid improved risk appetite. Rising treasury yields, however, are cause for concern for dollar bears. The dollar index (DXY), which gauges the greenback's value against major currencies, is extending its three-day losing streak.  At press time, the DXY is trading at 92.97, the lowest level since Sept. 21, representing marginal losses on the day. The index fell by nearly 0.4% on Tuesday to register losses for the third straight day.  Renewed expectations for additional US fiscal stimulus and coronavirus vaccine before the end of the year-end put a bid under the US and global stocks on Tuesday, weakening the haven demand for the greenback.  The futures tied to the S&P 500 are currently signaling continued risk-on action with 0.34% gains and keeping the US dollar on the defensive.  That said, big losses may remain elusive, as the US fiscal largesse is positive for treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading at 0.80%, the highest level since June 10.  Further, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to ramp up stimulus over the next two months. Put simply, major currencies like the EUR and AUD may have a tough time rallying against the greenback and other currencies.  Technical levels  

S&P 500 Futures ease from the intraday high around 3,450 to 3,446 during early Wednesday. Even so, the risk barometer prints a 0.40% gain on a day whi

S&P 500 Futures keep the previous day’s recovery moves amid stimulus hopes.Pelosi terms latest talks offering more clarity but McConnell probes expectations of early stimulus.Virus woes in Europe, allegations on the US President Donald Trump, Washington-Pyongyang tussle offer background music to the risks.S&P 500 Futures ease from the intraday high around 3,450 to 3,446 during early Wednesday. Even so, the risk barometer prints a 0.40% gain on a day while cheering progress over the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus talks. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi praised the latest round of relief package talks with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin after both the policymakers missed the Tuesday-night deadline to have a deal. The Pelosi-Mnuchin discussions are up for a restart on Wednesday when Treasury Secretary Mnuchin returns from his Middle East trip. It should, however, be noted that the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was recently spotted by CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla, via a tweet, while saying, “Mr. McConnell’s remarks, confirmed by four Republicans familiar with them, threw cold water on Mr. Trump’s increasingly urgent push to enact a new round of pandemic aid before Election Day.” Other than the stimulus talks, COVID-19 problems in Europe and the UK join the latest likely tension between the US and North Korea to challenge the risk-tone. Spain is near to emergency while the UK also fails to cheer any positive results from the “Three Tier” lockdowns as global counts cross 40 million. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields rise past-0.80% whereas stocks in Asia-Pacific print mild gains based on the stimulus hopes. Looking forward, considering a light calendar, the equity derivative may track Wall Street’s performance while paying major attention to the US relief package negotiations. Read: Wall Street Close: Bulls pull-out at last hour, benchmarks end off their highs

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy easing is exerting the intended effects on the economy, policymaker Makoto Sakurai said on Wednesday. The BO

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy easing is exerting the intended effects on the economy, policymaker Makoto Sakurai said on Wednesday. The BOJ will strive to aid corporate funding and maintain market stability, Sakurai added. Further comments “Must take swift, appropriate action as needed if the economy's recovery is delayed due to pandemic.” “Monetary policy only has an indirect impact on stimulating the economy via financial institutions.”  

EUR/USD takes the bids near 1.1830, up 0.11% intraday, during the early Wednesday. The pair gained upside momentum after clearing a falling trend line

EUR/USD stays mildly positive around intraday high of 1.1834.Tuesday’s break of five-week-old trend line directs the bulls to the key Fibonacci retracement.Overbought RSI conditions may trigger pullback to 1.1810 support confluence.EUR/USD takes the bids near 1.1830, up 0.11% intraday, during the early Wednesday. The pair gained upside momentum after clearing a falling trend line from September 15 the previous day. However, overbought RSI conditions challenge the bulls. As a result, traders require an upside break of Tuesday’s high of 1.1840 to attack 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September month’s downside, near 1.1860. In a case where EUR/USD bulls remain positive beyond 1.1860, the 1.1900 threshold and September 10 peak surrounding 1.1920 can be their favorites. On the flip side, a joint of the short-term rising trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1810 can offer immediate support to the pair during its pullback. However, any downside below the previous resistance line, at 1.1800, can recall the short-term sellers targeting the monthly support line, currently around 1.1710. EUR/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

NZD/USD has been in the hands of the bears following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Orr’s comment at a conference yesterday, saying that “

NZD/USD has melted to the downside and has given bears the greenlight to manoeuvre.There is the risk that price moves in on trendline resistance for last upside test. NZD/USD has been in the hands of the bears following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Governor Orr’s comment at a conference yesterday, saying that “we’re going to hold it [the OCR] there till at least February-March next year”. The market presumed it was an unintentional slip, as until now, guidance has been “at least 12 months” from March. Meanwhile, it played nicely into the hands of the bears expecting a break and waiting for the confirmation:NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears wait for confirmation of the downsideThe downside outlook is in accordance with the monthly analysis as follows: The monthly chart is displaying the prospect of a reverse head and shoulders which offers a bearish bias while the price is below the monthly resistance. The daily outlook was as follows: The 4-hour chart was predicted to move to resistance and falter as follows: Today, bears had the opportunity to move stops to breakeven on the meltdown over the past 24-hours. The price is moving back to restest the trendline support, turned counter-trend resistance as follows: The state of play from here, according to the market structure, is as follows:  A restest of the counter trendline and subsequent hold will likely confirm the downside and encourage further offers.  A break above, however, will jeopardise breakeven buy stops at around 0.6610/30 and a run above 0.6640 will encourage a test of the 0.6670 highs. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.6781 versus Tuesday's 6.6930.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the yuan reference rate at 6.6781 versus Tuesday's 6.6930.

Despite better than previous Aussie Retail Sales, AUD/JPY drops to 74.44 during early Wednesday. The reason could be fresh challenges to the hopes of

AUD/JPY eases from intraday top after Aussie data, bounces off three-week low.Australian Retail Sales shrank 1.5% versus -4.0% prior in September.Market sentiment stays positive amid stimulus hopes despite McConnell’s refrain from entertaining the push for stimulus before the election.Speech from BOJ’s Sakurai, risk catalysts will be the key.Despite better than previous Aussie Retail Sales, AUD/JPY drops to 74.44 during early Wednesday. The reason could be fresh challenges to the hopes of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus before the presidential elections. However, the market mood remains mildly positive after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi struck an upbeat statement following the latest round of aid package talks. The preliminary prints of the Australian Retail Sales for September recovered from -4.0% prior to -1.5%. The reading contrasts the Westpac Leading Index, published during early Asia, which eased from 0.48% to 0.22% MoM in September. Read: Australia Retail Sales (Sep. Preliminary): Falls 1.5% MoM, AUD steady CNBC’s Carl Quintanilla defies stimulus hopes with his latest tweet that relies on the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s comments concerning US President Donald Trump’s push for a quick relief package. The tweet said, “Mr. McConnell’s remarks, confirmed by four Republicans familiar with them, threw cold water on Mr. Trump’s increasingly urgent push to enact a new round of pandemic aid before Election Day.” Even so, S&P 500 Futures and most stocks in Asia-Pacific remain mildly bid whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields also pierce the 0.80% threshold by press time. The reason for the market’s optimism could be spotted from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s comments that mark progress in the aid package negotiations ahead of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin’s return from the Middle East. The talks are up for a restart on Wednesday. Given the lack of major data/events, except a speech by the BOJ policymaker Makoto Sakurai, AUD/JPY traders will keep eyes on the stimulus talks for near-term directions. It should also be noted that any further worsening of the virus conditions in Europe and/or tension with China will also be important to watch. Technical analysis The bearish MACD and sustained trading below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-August upside keep the AUD/JPY sellers hopeful. Hence, a clear downside past-74.25 will set the tone for the pair’s downside towards the late-June lows surrounding 73.35/30. Though, the September month’s low of 73.97 can offer an intermediate halt during the fall. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 74.80 will aim for the 75.00 round-figure.  

AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.7060/55 during Wednesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote pays a little heed to the recently flashed Retail Sales dat

AUD/USD snaps four-day losing streak while bouncing off one-month low.Australia’s Retail Sales shrank 1.5% MoM in September.Market’s risk-tone remains positive as US policymakers inch closer to the stimulus.COVID-19 woes, no-deal Brexit worries and RBA’s pessimism probe the bulls.AUD/USD takes rounds to 0.7060/55 during Wednesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote pays a little heed to the recently flashed Retail Sales data from Australia. Though, the data backs the broadly risk-on mood that takes clues from the progress of the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus talks. The preliminary readings of the Australian Retail Sales suggest that the consumer activities recovered, despite a drop of 1.5% versus -4.4% prior, during the previous month. Earlier in the day, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index eased from 0.48% to 0.22% MoM in September. Read: Australia Retail Sales (Sep. Preliminary): Falls 1.5% MoM, AUD steady Talking about the risks, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s comments conveying more clarity in the aid package discussions recently favored the trading sentiment. However, bulls are cautious ahead of US Treasury Secretary’s return from the Middle East as the policymakers have already missed Tuesday’s deadline and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell defy US President Donald Trump’s push for the stimulus before the election. Other than the US relief package talks, the tightening grips of the COVID-19 in Europe join the Sino-American and Aussie-China tussle to challenge the optimists. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures and stocks in Asia-Pacific remain mildly bid during the early hours of trading. The US 10-year Treasury yields also pierce the 0.80% mark and flash the upbeat market mood. As a result, today’s aid package negotiations between Pelosi and Mnuchin will be the key for the global markets and the AUD/USD even as the economic calendar fails to offer any important data from either the US or Australia. Technical analysis The bears need to conquer an ascending trend line from mid-June on a daily closing basis, currently around 0.7045, to visit the previous month’s bottom surrounding the 0.7000 threshold. Until then, the 100-day SMA level of 0.7101 holds the key for the bulls’ entries.  

Australia’s key release for today in the preliminary Retail Sales for September has just been released as follows by the Australian Bureau of Statisti

Australia’s key release for today in the preliminary Retail Sales for September has just been released as follows by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, providing early estimates: Seasonally adjusted estimate fell 1.5% MoM. +5.2% in September 2020 compared with September 2019 YoY. The states will continue to experience divergent conditions, Victoria set to be weak again. AUD/USD update The currency has been under pressure of late as the Reserve Bank of Australia tips the hat towards further easing as soon as November's meeting.  Yesterday, the RBA's Kent's rhetoric was the fuel that sent the Aussie over the edge. He was mostly repeating Governor Lowe’s dovish stance of last week but apparently catching the markets off guard when saying that the benchmark BBSW rate might dip below zero: RBA Kent's comments finally send AUD/USD through support However, a risk-on session on Wall Street helped lift the currency back to test the structure, trimming losses to 0.7050 in late New York trade as follows: Description of Retail Sales The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.48% to 0.2% in September

Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) increased to -1.5% in September from previous -4%

Gold prices rise to $1,913, up 0.36% intraday as markets in Tokyo open for Wednesday’s trading. The yellow metal benefited from the broad US dollar we

Gold reverses the pullback from $1,914 while bouncing off $1,906.US policymakers struck upbeat statements despite failing to match the deadline to offer relief package details.Coronavirus (COVID-19) woes tighten grip in Europe, US-North Korea, Sino-American tussles renew.All eyes on the US aid package talk even as calendar events pick-up pace.Gold prices rise to $1,913, up 0.36% intraday as markets in Tokyo open for Wednesday’s trading. The yellow metal benefited from the broad US dollar weakness, amid hopes of the American COVID-19 stimulus, during the previous day. The optimism faded as Congress members failed to meet the Tuesday-end time limit to unveil the details. However, the latest comments from the diplomats suggest that hopes are favoring the much-awaited relief package’s arrival soon. More clarity on discussions awaits Mnuchin’s return… Despite failing to agree on the COVID-19 aid package, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi conveyed her optimism for the deal. The diplomat recently said that the talks with US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin provided more clarity. Though, the White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows criticized Pelosi for her rigid demand of $2.2 to $2.4 trillion for the package as the root cause of the delay in the stimulus. More talks will resume when Treasury Secretary Mnuchin returns from his trip to the Middle East, expected on Wednesday. Elsewhere, European countries keep struggling due to the virus as Spain is near to announce a national emergency and the UK is failing to witness any upbeat results from the “Three Tier” lockdown system. The same suggests the return of the national activity restrictions and challenge market sentiment, which in turn can direct traders towards gold as the US dollar remains downbeat ahead of the American Presidential election. Other than the virus woes, Brexit worries and the US tussles with North Korea and China can also offer a mild push to the Risk-off buyers. Though, the present market sentiment seems positive as S&P 500 Futures and Japan’s Nikkei 225 both print 0.50% gains after Wall Street managed to close in mildly positively. Looking forward, traders will keep eyes on the relief package updates for near-term direction while comments from the ECB President Christine Lagarde can offer intermediate moves. Technical analysis A lower high formation on the daily chart, during the current week, can be ignored until the bullion prices remain above an ascending trend line from September 28, near $1,897 now. As a result, bulls are well-positioned to challenge a falling resistance line from August 18, currently around $1,919.  

As per yesterday's analysis, the cross has moved lower and into a position where defensive bears can now monitor the breakeven area for the opportunit

NZD/JPY has continued to lower and is testing critical support.Bears will monitor for a break of support and bring in their stop losses. As per yesterday's analysis, the cross has moved lower and into a position where defensive bears can now monitor the breakeven area for the opportunity for a free ride towards the target. For a re-cap of the motivation for the trade, NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears position for a 1:3 risk-reward setup,  the weekly chart was offering the prospects of a downside extension (wave-3) following a correction of the bearish impulse within what appears to be a reverse head and shoulders in the making: The bias is reinforced by the NZD/USD reverse head and shoulders:  

GBP/USD picks up the bids near 1.2950/55 during Wednesday’s Asia session. In doing so, the quote remains positive for the fourth day in a row while ke

GBP/USD keeps recovery moves from 1.2930, prints four-day winning streak.Sustained trading above the short-term key EMA favors bulls to again challenge the seven-week-old falling resistance line.An ascending trend line from September 23 adds to the downside barrier.GBP/USD picks up the bids near 1.2950/55 during Wednesday’s Asia session. In doing so, the quote remains positive for the fourth day in a row while keeping Monday’s upside break of the 50-day EMA. With the bullish MACD favoring the EMA breakout, GBP/USD buyers can aim for the falling resistance line from September 01, at 1.2995 now. However, the pair’s upside past-1.2995 will challenge the monthly peak surrounding 1.3085 only if there prevails a sustained break of the 1.3000 threshold. Meanwhile, a one-month-long support line near 1.2890 offers an extra back-up to the GBP/USD bulls even if they fail to bounce off the 50-day EMA level of 1.2935. In a case where the quote drops below 1.2890, the monthly low of 1.2820 can act as a buffer before dragging prices to the previous month’s low of 1.2675. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

Early Wednesday, the market sees the preliminary reading for the September month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following a 4% contrac

Retail Sales overview Early Wednesday, the market sees the preliminary reading for the September month Retail Sales data from Australia at 00:30 GMT. Following a 4% contraction in August, markets are expecting a mild recovery in the print as the period comprises of Australia’s bounce back from the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence. Although bearish signals from the RBA have already waned optimism for any expectedly positive data, AUD/USD traders may look for a bounce from the multi-day low amid cautious optimism, which in turn makes today’s readings the key. Analysts at Westpac don’t turn down the market forecasts while saying: We expect sales to be up slightly, +0.5% after -4% in Aug. The states will continue to experience divergent conditions, Victoria set to be weak again. How could it affect AUD/USD? AUD/USD pierces 0.7050 while consolidating the previous day’s losses to the lowest in one month. Although the recent optimism concerning the US COVID-19 relief package seems to have favored the pair buyers, bulls are likely to keep in mind that the latest statements in the RBA minutes and by RBA Governor Philip Lowe have been pointing towards a rate cut. However, any extreme prints of the key economic data might not refrain from extending the latest recovery moves. Technically, the bears need to offer a clear break below an ascending trend line from mid-June, currently around 0.7045, to visit the previous month’s bottom surrounding the 0.7000 threshold. Until then, the 100-day SMA level of 0.7101 holds the key for the bulls’ entries. Key Notes AUD/USD Forecast: Bouncing from fresh 1-month lows, but still at risk of falling AUD/USD: Fades pullback from one month low ahead of Aussie Retail Sales About Australian Retail Sales The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

USD/CAD fades pullback from the weekly low while declining to 1.3120 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The pair marked the biggest losses i

USD/CAD fails to extend the bounce off one-week low beyond 1.3132.Absence of extreme RSI conditions, sustained trading below key Fibonacci levels, SMA favor the bears.50% Fibonacci retracement adds strength to the 1.3200/3210 key resistance.USD/CAD fades pullback from the weekly low while declining to 1.3120 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The pair marked the biggest losses in eight days the previous day but couldn’t close below an ascending trend line from September 01. Although normal RSI conditions and sustained trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last month’s upside favor USD/CAD sellers, a clear downside break of the mentioned support line, at 1.3115 now, becomes necessary to confirm the bears’ entries. It should be noted that the monthly low of 1.3100 and the multiple stops around 1.3050/45 can offer intermediate halts during the pair’s downside from 1.3115 towards the previous month’s low of 1.2994. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3160 needs to break a falling trend line from September 30, at 1.3180 now, before confronting the crucial resistance confluence near 1.3200/3210 that includes 50-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement. If at all the bulls manage to cross the 1.3210 hurdle, 1.3260 and the monthly high of 1.3340 will gain market attention. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Earlier, Pelosi's spokesman Drew Hammill said on Twitter that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin moved closer to an a

Earlier, Pelosi's spokesman Drew Hammill said on Twitter that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin moved closer to an agreement on a fresh coronavirus relief package during a 45-minute talk on Tuesday. Hammill said talks would continue on Wednesday, and "both sides are serious about finding a compromise." Pelosi herself has just stated that the talks with Mnuchin provided more clarity and that she remains hopeful of a pre-election stimulus deal.  Futures in early Asia have enjoyed the optimism.  S&P500 CFDs were higher by over 0.5% to trade at 3455.4 the high.    

Whether you are a bull or a bear, the following top-down analysis has something for everyone. Currently, there is little to take advantage of without

USD/CHF is trapped between resistance and support on a monthly basis.Support is expected to be tested where the opportunities will arise. Whether you are a bull or a bear, the following top-down analysis has something for everyone.  Currently, there is little to take advantage of without being exposed to swings.  The case for the downside is diluted by the monthly support while the upside opportunities would be best placed once there has been an actual test of the monthly support.  Monthly chart, break of support prospects If the support gives, then there is plenty of fuel in this correction that has made it to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for the bears to stay in control and extend the downside towards lower structure.  However, if the support holds, then the upside will be back in the picture.  Strong support scenario Weekly chart In a scenario where there is strong support, bulls will seek entry and target the upside.  Daily chart The right-hand shoulder (RHS) of the head and shoulders is also an M-formation.  The neckline can be targeted. 4-hour chart Those seeking a test back to resistance would welcome a discount and there could be one in the making.  An extension fo the downside and subsequent test of the monthly support could well be in order at this juncture and offer a better entry point to target the M-formation's neckline. The 4-hour chart can be monitored for bullish technical conditions once a test of the support has been made.  A break of the support will give rise to downside opportunities.

WTI refrains to extend the late-US session losses while picking up the bids around $41.30 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian trading on Wednesday. The oi

WTI’s consolidates the pullback from the highest since September 04 with its latest U-turn from $41.13.API Weekly Crude Oil Stock grew to 0.584M versus -5.42M prior during the week ended on October 16.Markets anticipate a bearish statement from the oil producers after IMF’s downbeat forecasts.EIA inventories, risk catalysts can entertain oil traders.WTI refrains to extend the late-US session losses while picking up the bids around $41.30 during the pre-Tokyo open Asian trading on Wednesday. The oil benchmark rose to the highest since September 04 the previous day, before stepping back to $41.13 on downbeat inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). However, broad US dollar weakness and cautious optimism in the market seem to have favored the bulls. API inventories failed to repeat the previous week’s surprise draw of 5.42 million barrels as the industry data marked the addition of 0.584 million barrels of stockpiles in its latest release. The data offered oil traders the much-needed pullback from the multi-day high. The pullback also gained momentum amid the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest economic forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia. The Washington-based institute recently predicted a 4.1% contraction for the region following its earlier fears of -2.8% GDP. This challenges the global output cut agreement between the leading producers and Russia. Even so, cautious optimism concerning the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus and weak US dollar favors the energy bulls. Although US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin couldn’t break the relief talk stalemate by the previously hailed deadline of Tuesday-end, the latest comments from the Congress suggest both sides are nearer to a deal. This reduces the greenback’s safe-haven demand and keeps the US dollar index (DXY) near the lowest in a month. With the private inventories flashing downbeat numbers, the official figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) are also expected to recede from -3.818M previous readouts to -0.24M during the week closed on October 16. The same can offer another drag to the commodity prices, in addition to the fears of oil demand, but could be ignored if US policymakers can unveil the much-awaited stimulus. Technical analysis Oil prices need to stay beyond the late-September top around $41.75 to keep the bulls directed towards the August 24 low closet to $42.30, failing to do so can drag the quote back to the monthly support line near $40.70. It should, however, be noted that the 200-day EMA level of $41.30 can offer immediate support to the black gold.  

AUD/JPY struggles to keep recovery moves from the lowest since September 28, marked the previous day, while taking rounds to 74.35 during the early We

AUD/JPY fizzles the bounce off one-month low, struggles around the key support confluence near 74.35/25.Bearish MACD, sustained trading below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement favor the sellers.AUD/JPY struggles to keep recovery moves from the lowest since September 28, marked the previous day, while taking rounds to 74.35 during the early Wednesday morning in Asia. In doing so, the pair steps back from the confluence of 200-day EMA and an upward sloping trend line from June 12. Even so, bearish MACD and sustained trading below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June-August upside keep the AUD/JPY sellers hopeful. Hence, a clear downside past-74.25 will set the tone for the pair’s downside towards the late-June lows surrounding 73.35/30. Though, the September month’s low of 73.97 can offer an intermediate halt during the fall. Should AUD/JPY prices remain weak past-73.30, bottoms marked on June 22 and 12, respectively around 72.70 and 72.50 will return to the charts. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 74.80 will aim for the 75.00 round-figure. However, any more upside will not hesitate to direct the AUD/JPY buyers towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the monthly low of 75.50 and 76.50 in that order. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Early Wednesday morning in Asia, South Korea’s Yonhap quoted US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper while terming North Korea as the rogue nation. The com

Early Wednesday morning in Asia, South Korea’s Yonhap quoted US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper while terming North Korea as the rogue nation. The comments from the American diplomat also suggested that the world’s biggest economy needs to further enhance his country's alliances and defense capabilities, per the news. Other than citing the threats from North Korea and Iran, the US completion with Russia and China could also be found in the excerpts of the speech. Market implications The news failed to offer any immediate market moves, mainly because of the general inactivity around this time of the day as well as major attention on the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus talks. However, the USD/KRW bounces off the lowest since April 2013 to 1,139.50 by press time. The reason could be traced from the US dollar’s safe-haven demand amid times when the US and North Korea are already talking denuclearization.

AUD/USD nurse recent losses around 0.7050 at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair dropped to the lowest since September 25 the previous da

AUD/USD bounces from 0.7019, the lowest in one month, couldn’t exceed 0.7073, prices battle with four-month-old support line.Mixed headlines concerning the US stimulus offered a breathing space to the sellers called by RBA minutes.US dollar weakness, a light calendar may join the line of positive catalysts.Aussie Retail Sales can trigger consolidation of recent losses unless risk-off dominates, as widely anticipated.AUD/USD nurse recent losses around 0.7050 at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair dropped to the lowest since September 25 the previous day before bouncing off 0.7019. While cautious optimism concerning the US coronavirus (COVID-19) stimulus favored traders to nurse the losses led by RBA minutes, fears of the wider wave 2.0 and no final announcement of the American package by the previously hailed deadline keep the bulls chained. Other than the risk catalysts, the preliminary reading of Australia’s September month Retail Sales will also be the key to watch. US stimulus talks again extended… Despite conveying optimism for the much-awaited relief package deal, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin failed to reach on virus aid agreement by the end of the 48-hour time limit cheered earlier by Democrat Pelosi. Recently a spokesperson for Pelosi said, “Both sides are serious about finding a compromise and moved closer to the agreement.” The update also mentioned that the negotiations will continue on Wednesday. Before a few minutes, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows blamed House Speaker Pelosi for the delay in the talks as she sticks to $2.2 to $2.4 trillion demand. Earlier on Tuesday, RBA minutes provided additional strength to AUD/USD while citing the possibilities of pushing the targets for the cash rate and the 3-year yield towards zero. The moves were strong enough to drag the pair to a one-month low before the US-session recovery that mainly took clues from the broad US dollar weakness amid mild hopes of the stimulus bundle from the American Congress. It’s worth mentioning that improvement in the US housing numbers, recently in the Housing Starts and Building Permits that followed previous positive prints of the NAHB Housing Market Index, also favored the market’s cautious optimism. Furthermore, no rate change for the sixth consecutive month by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) could also be considered as a distant positive for the pair. Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks managed to close with soft gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields gained 2.4 basis points (bps) to 0.786% at the end of Tuesday’s North American session. Looking forward, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index and the preliminary reading of Retail Sales for September can offer immediate direction to the AUD/USD prices as stimulus talks have been pushed back by one more day. Although the shift in the market mood can gain momentum from the scheduled releases and may extend the bounce off multi-day low, virus woes stand tall to challenge the bulls. Technical analysis While an ascending trend line from mid-June can keep jostling with the bears near 0.7045/50, the 100-day SMA level of 0.7101 holds the key for the bulls’ entries. Also acting as the key downside support is the previous month’s bottom surrounding the 0.7000 threshold.  

Stocks on Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday although were down from their highs on the day when it became apparent that the talks among US lawmakers

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 113.37 points, or 0.4%.The S&P 500 ended 16.2 points higher, or 0.47%. Nasdaq Composite ended 37.51 points higher, or 0.33%.Stocks on Wall Street ended higher on Tuesday although were down from their highs on the day when it became apparent that the talks among US lawmakers were not progressing as fast as hoped. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she was optimistic Democrats could reach a deal with the White House early on which spurred investors on at the start of the day. She added there should be an indication of a possible agreement later on Tuesday, but that never came. “Hopefully by the end of the day today, we’ll know where we all are,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Bloomberg television. Instead, a phone call was held between Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin which did not resolve matters according to the Chief of Staff Mike Meadows who made a statement or two after the market close. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 113.37 points, or 0.4%, to 28,308.79, the S&P 500 ended 16.2 points higher, or 0.47%, to 3,443.12 and the Nasdaq Composite ended 37.51 points higher, or 0.33%, to 11,516.49.   Meanwhile, the third-quarter earnings season saw 66 S&P 500 companies reporting results. 86.4% have topped expectations for earnings, according to Refinitiv IBES data. S&P 500 levels          

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.8%) in September

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY) above forecasts (-0.5%) in September: Actual (-0.4%)

Gold futures have remained trading within previous ranges on Tuesday, trapped between $1,900 and $1,915, with the market awaiting the outcome of the U

Gold futures have remained trading within previous ranges on Tuesday, trapped between $1,900 and $1,915, with the market awaiting the outcome of the US stimulus negotiations. US House Representative, Nancy Pelosi, who set Tuesday as the deadline to reach an agreement, said she was optimistic about a stimulus deal, although senate republicans have shown their opposition to the spending figures proposed by the democrats, which cast serious doubts about the chances for the legislation to be passed before the Election Day. How is XAU/USD positioned on the charts? The Technical Confluences Indicator shows the yellow metal trading below a cluster of lines at $1,910, that include previous lows at 15 min and hour charts, 38,2% Fibonacci retracement one day and 5 SMA in 15 min and one-hour charts. Beyond that level, the precious metal will find $1,9013 with the confluence of the 200-SMA on 4h charts, the Bollinger Band 4h-Upper, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day.  Finally, at $1,928 the pair will find pivot point 1-day R2 and pivot point 1-week R1. On the downside, initial support lies at $1,905, where the 50-SMA in 1-hour charts converges with the 200 SMA in 15M and 5 SMA in 4H plus the Bollinger Band 4H middle and 61.8 Fibonacci 1H. Below here at $1,901 we find the confluence of 5-SMA on 1D, 100-SMA on 4H and Fibonacci 38,2% 1W. Finally, at $1,895 gold futures might find support at the 23,6% Fibonacci 1W confluence with pivot point 1 Day S1 and Bollinger Band 1D Middle. Here is how it looks on the tool About Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. Learn more about Technical Confluence
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