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Forex News Timeline

Monday, June 14, 2021

DXY’s upside momentum still meets a tough barrier in the 90.60 region on Monday. Above recent tops in the 90.60/70 band the dollar is forecast to adva

DXY keeps the trade near recent peaks around 90.50.Extra gains likely above 90.60/70 for the time being.DXY’s upside momentum still meets a tough barrier in the 90.60 region on Monday. Above recent tops in the 90.60/70 band the dollar is forecast to advance further. Further upside, in the meantime, is seen as temporary. As long as this area continues to cap the upside, there is still room for a potential drop to May’s low in the mid-89.00s. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, while below the 200-day SMA, today at 91.55 the outlook for the buck is forecast to remain negative. DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY manages to regain some upside traction following two consecutive daily pullbacks on Monday. Following a decent contention in the 132.50 region

EUR/JPY reverses the recent weakness near the 132.50 level.The recovery targets the 2021 highs above 134.00.EUR/JPY manages to regain some upside traction following two consecutive daily pullbacks on Monday. Following a decent contention in the 132.50 region, the ongoing bullish attempt could extend further, with are no relevant hurdles until de YTD highs past 134.00 the figure. Further north comes in the September/October 2017 highs in the 134.40/50. Further gains appear likely as long as the cross remains underpinned by the immediate support line (off the March lows) near 131.70. This area is also reinforced by the proximity of the 50-day SMA (131.93). In the broader picture, while above the 200-day SMA at 127.45 the broader outlook for the cross should remain constructive. EUR/JPY daily chart  

EUR/CHF is stalling slightly at its 200-day moving average at 1.0876/68. Nevertheless, the pair maintains a small bearish “pennant” pattern, which kee

EUR/CHF is stalling slightly at its 200-day moving average at 1.0876/68. Nevertheless, the pair maintains a small bearish “pennant” pattern, which keeps the risks lower, as the Credit Suisse analyst team notes. Bearish bias while below 1.0925 “EUR/CHF is stabilizing above the 200-day average at 1.0876/68 in the short term, however a break below here in due course would open up the ‘measured pattern objective’ at 1.0829/27, where we expect the market to find a floor.”  “The risks stay lower whilst below 1.0925/35 and next resistance at 1.0951. Above here would negate the new bearish pattern, with resistance thereafter seen at the 55-day average at 1.0991/98, above which would open up downtrend resistance at 1.1029/31. We expect this zone to cap if reached to keep the market in its 3 month downtrend.”  

After losing 50 pips on Friday, the AUD/USD pair started the new week in a calm manner before edging modestly higher during the European trading hours

AUD/USD is posting modest recovery gains following Friday's drop.US Dollar Index is moving sideways around 90.50 on Monday.Market action is likely to remain subdued in the remainder of the day.After losing 50 pips on Friday, the AUD/USD pair started the new week in a calm manner before edging modestly higher during the European trading hours. As of writing, the pair was trading at a fresh session high of 0.7720, rising 0.18% on a daily basis. Nevertheless, in the absence of significant fundamental drivers, the pair's rebound seems to be a correction of its latest drop. Markets stay quiet ahead of key events There won't be any high-tier macroeconomic data releases featured in the US economic docket on Monday and investors are likely to refrain from taking large positions ahead of Tuesday's Retail Sales data and Wednesday's FOMC's policy announcements. Currently, the US Dollar Index is consolidating last week's gains, moving sideways around last Friday's closing level of 90.50. Meanwhile, US stock index futures are also trading little changed on the day, suggesting that the risk perception will not able to provide a directional clue to AUD/USD either. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its latest meeting. A hawkish tone could provide a temporary boost to the AUD.  Technical levels to watch for  

NZD/USD fell sharply to the bottom of its range on Friday, but held above key support at 0.7115 exactly. Only a break below here would confirm a top,

NZD/USD fell sharply to the bottom of its range on Friday, but held above key support at 0.7115 exactly. Only a break below here would confirm a top, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team. Break below 0.7115 to complete an in -range top “NZD/USD fell sharply on Friday, moving right to the bottom of its range to test key support at 0.7115, below which would complete an in-range top and confirm a move lower within the broader 2021 range.”  “With daily MACD now crossing below zero, next key support is seen at the 200-day average at .7033, which could prove a tough barrier at first. Nevertheless, the potential “measured top objective” suggests we could dip below here if the pattern is confirmed, with next support then seen at some corrective price lows at .7003/6996.”  “Near-term resistance stays at 0.7244/50. Above here would complete an intraday base and turn the risks higher, with the next resistance at 0.7289, then 0.7306/17.”  “Above the 0.7306/17 level and then the important retracement resistance at 0.7353 would resolve the range higher and reassert the core bull uptrend for a move to the 2021 high at 0.7465.”   

USD/CAD has broken clearly above 1.2145 to suggest the warned-of correction is beginning. Next resistance levels are seen at 1.2203, then 1.2253/85, t

USD/CAD has broken clearly above 1.2145 to suggest the warned-of correction is beginning. Next resistance levels are seen at 1.2203, then 1.2253/85, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports. Support moves to the 1.2145/43 breakout point “We look for a move to 1.2203 next, then 1.2253/85, which includes the important 55-day average, the 38.2% retracement of the fall from April and the ‘measured base objective’. We would look for a cap here for the medium term downtrend to then reassert itself.”  “Near-term support moves to the 1.2145/43 breakout point. A break below 1.2058/56 would quickly turn our bias back lower and negate the base, with a direct close below 1.2012/00 reasserting the broader downtrend.”  “Furthermore, a weekly close below 1.2060/48 would also still confirm a multi-year ‘double top’ to dramatically reinforce our medium term bearish outlook, with the next level at 1.1916.”  

EUR/USD has hit the lowest levels in the month, but bulls have been keeping up a fight. Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, lays out the case for an u

EUR/USD has hit the lowest levels in the month, but bulls have been keeping up a fight. Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, lays out the case for an upside correction. See – EUR/USD to suffer further weakness towards the 1.2065/51 support area – Credit SuisseSigns that US inflation is indeed transitory“The Federal Reserve is set to leave its policy unchanged on Wednesday, but some expect it to provide a subtle hint about tapering its bond-buying scheme later this year. With roughly 7.6 million people out of work and inflation that could be labeled transitory – aka reopening-related – the bank will likely stay put.”  “After a bipartisan group of lawmakers laid down a compromise $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal, reports suggest that President Joe Biden may run into opposition from within his own party. Any delay in spending is dollar-negative, as it lowers inflation expectations.”  “Support awaits at the new low of 1.2090, followed by 1.2055 and 1.2015, levels that were last seen in May.”  “Resistance is at 1.2115, the daily high, followed by 1.2145, 1.2160 and 1.22.”   

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on June 8th: Net longs in USD receded to the lowest level so far this

These are the main highlights of the CFTC Positioning Report for the week ended on June 8th: Net longs in USD receded to the lowest level so far this year around 1750 contracts. The broad rangebound theme in the greenback prevailed during the period, as market participants remained vigilant ahead of the US CPI release and the ECB event, relegating somewhat the US economic recovery narrative instead. Specs scaled back their EUR gross longs (and gross shorts) for the first time in several weeks, taking the net longs to 2-week lows against the backdrop of erratic price action and rising cautiousness ahead of the ECB gathering. Net longs in crude oil climbed to levels last seen in early April on the back of the unabated rally, which in turns remain propped up by optimism on the global economic recovery and prospects of higher demand. In the safe haven universe, net shorts in JPY dropped to YTD lows while net longs in CHF rose to levels last seen in April.

The NZD/USD pair edged higher through the first half of the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its intraday trading range

NZD/USD built on its modest bullish weekly gap opening and recovered a part of Friday’s slump.A subdued USD demand, the risk-on mood extended some support to the perceived riskier kiwi.The USD downside seems limited ahead of the FOMC meeting, warranting some caution for bulls.The NZD/USD pair edged higher through the first half of the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its intraday trading range, around mid-0.7100s. The pair opened with a modest bullish gap on the first day of a new trading week and recovered a part of the previous session's slump to the 0.7100 neighbourhood or the lowest level since early May. The uptick was supported by a subdued US dollar demand and the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets, which tends to benefit the perceived riskier kiwi. The greenback struggled to capitalize on Friday's strong move up, albeit remained well supported by expectations that the Fed might begin the discussion on tapering its asset purchases in the face of rising inflationary pressures. It is worth recalling that the latest US CPI report released last week showed the pace of inflation in the US climbed to a 13-year high in May. Hence, the key focus will remain on the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 15-16. Apart from this, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields might hold investors from placing any aggressive bearish bets around the USD. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US. That said, the US bond yields might continue to play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Traders might further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab some short-term opportunities around the NZD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD finally saw a more decisive move lower on Friday. Now, analysts at Credit Suisse look for a test of the 55-day moving average and price/retrac

EUR/USD finally saw a more decisive move lower on Friday. Now, analysts at Credit Suisse look for a test of the 55-day moving average and price/retracement support at 1.2065/51. Support at 1.2065/51 to try and hold “We look for further weakness to 1.2065/51 – the mid-May low, 38.2% retracement of the rally from late March and now also the rising 55-day average. Our bias remains to then look for a floor here. A break though would expose the 200-day average and May low at 1.1993/86.”  “Failure to hold the 1.1993/86 support on a closing basis would reinforce the broader sideways range that has been in place all year, opening the door to further weakness to 1.1942 next, then 1.1928/18.”  “Above 1.2144 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back to 1.2196.” “Beyond 1.2218/19 remains needed to reassert the uptrend for a move back to the 1.2255/67 highs and downtrend from January. This remains seen as the barrier to a move to the top of the range for the year at 1.2319/50.”  

Portugal Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.6%) in May: Actual (0.2%)

Portugal Consumer Price Index (YoY) remains unchanged at 1.2% in May

UOB Group’s FX Strategists expect USD/CNH to gain extra upside traction once 6.4105 is cleared. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we expected USD

UOB Group’s FX Strategists expect USD/CNH to gain extra upside traction once 6.4105 is cleared. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Last Friday, we expected USD to “trade sideways within a 6.3790/6.3960 range”. However, it rose to 6.3999 before closing on a firm note at 6.3949 (+0.13%). Upward momentum has improved, albeit not by all that much. From here, there is room for USD to test 6.4050 but a sustained advance above this level is unlikely (next resistance is at 6.4105). On the downside, a break of 6.3900 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (10 Jun, spot at 6.3830) where USD likely to trade sideways within a range of 6.3650/6.4050. While there is no change in our view for now, shorter-term upward momentum is beginning to improve. That said, USD has to close above the strong resistance at 6.4105 before a sustained advance can be expected. At this stage, the prospect for USD to close above 6.4105 is not high but it would increase quickly unless USD drops below 6.3830 within these few days.”

The GBP/JPY cross dropped to fresh daily lows, around the 154.30 region during the first half of the European session, albeit lacked any strong follow

A combination of factors dragged GBP/JPY into the negative territory for the second straight day.COVID-19/COVID-19 woes continued weighing on the British pound and exerted some pressure.A modest JPY uptick contributed to the downtick; the risk-on environment helped limit losses.The GBP/JPY cross dropped to fresh daily lows, around the 154.30 region during the first half of the European session, albeit lacked any strong follow-through selling. The cross struggled to capitalize on its intraday uptick, instead met with some fresh supply in the vicinity of the key 155.00 psychological mark and turned lower for the second straight day. The British pound's relative underperformance could be attributed to growing market worries that the UK may delay its plans to end restrictions fully in light of the spread of the Delta variant. Senior ministers in the UK signed off a decision to postpone the lifting of all COVID-19 restrictions beyond June 21. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will make a statement on the coronavirus situation later this Monday and push back the timeline to end lockdown measures. This, along with the EU-UK stand-off over Norther Ireland protocol exerted some additional pressure on the sterling. In a further escalation of the dispute between the two parties, the EU warned of swift and firm action if the UK fails to implement its post-Brexit obligations. Adding to this, French President Emmanuel Macron said that NI is not a part of the UK. This was seen as another factor that kept the GBP bulls on the defensive and prompted some fresh selling around the GBP/JPY pair. On the other hand, the Japanese yen benefitted from a subdued US dollar price action, which further contributed to the offered tone surrounding the GBP/JPY cross. That said, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets capped any meaningful gains for the safe-haven JPY and helped limit any further losses for the GBP/JPY cross amid absent relevant market moving economic releases. From a technical perspective, the GBP/JPY cross, so far, has managed to hold its neck comfortably above the two-week lows touched last Friday. This should now act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively will set the stage for an extension of the recent pullback from the 156.00 mark, or the highest level since February 2018 touched in May. Technical levels to watch  

The single currency starts the week slightly on the positive footing and motivating EUR/USD to regain the 1.2100 mark and above. EUR/USD looks to USD,

EUR/USD manages to bounce off earlier lows near 1.2090.German 10-year Bund yields rebound from -0.27%.EMU Industrial Production expanded 39.3% YoY in April.The single currency starts the week slightly on the positive footing and motivating EUR/USD to regain the 1.2100 mark and above. EUR/USD looks to USD, inflation EUR/USD navigates a narrow range on Monday, rebounding from earlier lows in the 1.2090 region and keeping business above 1.2100 the figure so far in the European morning. The pair so far tracks the side-lined theme in the greenback, while benchmark yields on both sides of the ocean stick to the consolidative in the lower bound of the recent range. In fact, market participants are expected to keep the cautious note once again this week ahead of the key FOMC meeting on Wednesday and with the “transient” higher inflation narrative in the centre of the debate. In the domestic docket, Industrial Production in the broader euro zone expanded at a monthly 0.8% during April and 39.3% over the last twelve months, both prints coming in above market consensus. Nothing scheduled data wise in the NA session other than short-term bill auctions. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD manages to bounce of recent lows in the sub-1.2100 area, although it is forecast to remain somewhat vigilant ahead of the Fed event later this week and while market participants keep digesting the latest US inflation figures. In the meantime, support from the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, prospects of a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets.Key events in the euro area this week: Final May Core CPI (Thursday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is gaining 0.05% at 1.2114 and faces the next up barrier at 1.2266 (monthly high May 25) followed by 1.2300 (round level) and finally 1.2349 (2021 high Jan.6). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.2064 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally) would target 1.2051 (weekly low May 13) en route to 1.1985 (monthly low May 5).

WTI briefly paused its ongoing uptrend and pulled back slightly from two-and-half-year highs of $72.69 after Iran announced that it has reached a broa

WTI briefly paused its ongoing uptrend and pulled back slightly from two-and-half-year highs of $72.69 after Iran announced that it has reached a broad agreement with the US over the lifting of the energy sanctions. Saeed Khatibzadeh, a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, said: “Some minute technical, political, legal and practical issues remain.” “No task was impossible for negotiators” and there’s no impasse, he added.   more to come ...

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday, he remains hopeful that the UK-Russia relations will improve while adding that US President Joe B

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday, he remains hopeful that the UK-Russia relations will improve while adding that US President Joe Biden will take some "tough messages" to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Key quotes "I'm always hopeful that things will improve with Russia, but ... I am afraid that so far, it's been pretty disappointing from the UK point of view.” "I know that President Biden will be taking some pretty tough messages to President Putin. In the course of the next few days." His comments come as he arrives at a meeting of the NATO military alliance. PM Johnson is expected to make a statement on virus restrictions later today at 1700 GMT.

EUR/GBP is slipping back to the 0.8560 May low below which lies 0.8471, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Offered b

EUR/GBP is slipping back to the 0.8560 May low below which lies 0.8471, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Offered below 0.8732 “EUR/GBP is sliding back towards the May low at 0.8560 below which the February and mid-March lows can be spotted at 0.8549/33. Further down sits the April low at 0.8471.”  “Immediate downside pressure should retain the upper hand while the cross stays below the 0.8643 June 10 high. Slightly further up the late May high can be spotted at 0.8673.”  “Key resistance remains to be seen at 0.8722/32, the late February and April highs. This would need to be overcome in order to negate downside pressure.”  

EUR/JPY continues to ease lower. Nonetheless, the pair looks bullish long-term as it holds above the 131.84/79 neighborhood, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC

EUR/JPY continues to ease lower. Nonetheless, the pair looks bullish long-term as it holds above the 131.84/79 neighborhood, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Bullish while above uptrend at 131.84 “EUR/JPY continues to correct lower and targets the six-month uptrend line at 131.84 which is reinforced by the 55-day moving average at 131.79. While above there, a longer-term upside bias will remain in play. Initial resistance above the June 10 high is seen at 133.75, above which sits 134.12, the current June high.”  “Our longer-term target is the 137.51 2018 high.”  “Immediate support can be spotted between the April high and late May low at 132.53/36.”   

The USD/CAD pair extended its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session and remained confined in a range, just

USD/CAD was seen oscillating in a range just below four-week tops touched on Friday.The ongoing bullish run in crude oil prices underpinned the loonie and capped gains.A modest USD strength extended some support and helped limit any meaningful slide.The USD/CAD pair extended its sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session and remained confined in a range, just above mid-1.2100s. A combination of diverging forces failed to assist the USD/CAD pair to capitalize on Friday's positive move to four-week tops, instead led to a subdued action on the first day of a new trading week. The ongoing bullish run in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and kept a lid on any further gains for the major. Oil prices added to the recent strong gains recorded over the past three weeks and shot to the highest level since October 2018. The momentum remained well supported by an improved outlook for the recovery in the fuel demand amid the continuous improvement of the coronavirus situation in the United States and much of Europe. The negative factor, to a larger extent, was offset by a modest US dollar strength, which, in turn, helped limit the downside for the USD/CAD pair. Expectations that the Fed might begin the discussion on tapering its asset purchases in the face of rising inflationary pressures. This, in turn, acted as a tailwind for the greenback. It is worth recalling that the pace of inflation in the US climbed to a 13-year high in May. Apart from this, signs of stability in the US Treasury bond yields extended some additional support to the buck, though did little to impress bullish traders or provide any meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair, at least for now. Investors now seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the key FOMC monetary policy meeting on June 15-16. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/CAD has bottomed out and positioning for any further gains. Technical levels to watch  

Eurozone’s Industrial Production in Germany showed a bigger-than-expected rise in April, the official data published by Eurostat showed on Monday, sug

Eurozone’s Industrial Production in Germany showed a bigger-than-expected rise in April, the official data published by Eurostat showed on Monday, suggesting that the recovery in the manufacturing sector is gradually picking up. The industrial output in the bloc arrived at 0.8% MoM vs. a 0.4% rise expected and 0.4% last. On an annualized basis, the industrial output jumped by a whopping 39.3% in April versus a 37.4% increase expected and March’s 11.5%.   developing story ...

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting failed to spur momentum for the euro as taper talk failed to make it to the centre of discus

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting failed to spur momentum for the euro as taper talk failed to make it to the centre of discussions. Technically, there is momentum loss providing the basis for a roll lower for EUR, according to Benjamin Wong, Strategist at DBS Bank. Short-term support pivot at 1.2125 purged “There is momentum loss with EUR unable to progress beyond late-May’s 1.2266 highs, and a near-term 1.2125 support pivot has given way.” “A EUR rollback would keenly eye the focal point of the trend support that had connected 1.1603 through 1.1704. However, downside momentum can only rise proportionally stronger if EUR can bypass the moving average support at 1.2000 and the daily chart’s 200-day moving average at 1.1994.” “Note the clear importance of 1.1944 where there is strong Ichimkou cloud support. 1.1944 is also a front to the 50-week moving average level. This level is key, as its upside thrust in early June 2020 kicked up a 11.7% price rally for EUR, and it certainly contained the then decline to 1.1704 in early April this year.”  

European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) above forecasts (37.4%) in April: Actual (39.3%)

European Monetary Union Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.4%) in April

EUR/USD is slipping back towards minor support at 1.2070/52. A break below this neighborhood would trigger a sharper fall towards the 1.1994/86 suppor

EUR/USD is slipping back towards minor support at 1.2070/52. A break below this neighborhood would trigger a sharper fall towards the 1.1994/86 support area, Axel Rudolph, Senior FICC Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, reports. Channel support line at 1.2070 offers support “EUR/USD continues to trade within its recent downtrend channel and nears the channel support line and the 55-day moving average at 1.2070/65 which may offer short-term support.”  “A fall through the next lower 1.2052 mid-May low on a daily chart closing basis would probably trigger a deeper retracement to the 1.1994/86 band of support (mid-March highs and April 22 as well as May lows) which should ideally hold the downside.”  “Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal above last week’s high at 1.2218 would re-engage the 1.2266 end of May high which guards the 1.2349 January high.”  

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council member and Lithuanian central bank Chief Gediminas Simkus echoed comments from President Christine Lagar

The European Central Bank’s Governing Council member and Lithuanian central bank Chief Gediminas Simkus echoed comments from President Christine Lagarde on a likely end to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme. Key quotes “Too early to talk about end of PEPP program.” “September forecasts needed to discuss PEPP.”

The EUR/GBP cross shot to fresh daily tops during the early European session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 0.

EUR/GBP gained some positive traction on Monday and snapped two days of the losing streak.COVID-19/Brexit woes continued weighing on the sterling and remained supportive of the move.A subdued USD demand benefitted the euro, which further provided an additional lift to the cross.The EUR/GBP cross shot to fresh daily tops during the early European session, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 0.8600 mark. The cross attracted some buying near the 0.8570 region on the first day of a new trading week and for now, seems to have stalled last week's rejection slide from a short-term descending trend-line hurdle. A combination of factors continued acting as a headwind for the British pound and provided a goodish lift to the EUR/GBP cross. Investors remain worried that the UK may delay its plans to end restrictions fully in light of the spread of the so-called Delta variant. In the latest development, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will make a statement this Monday and might push back the timeline to end of restrictions in light of the spread of the so-called Delta variant. The initial plan was to reopen the economy fully on June 21. The delay dampened prospects for a rapid UK economic recovery from the pandemic. This comes amid the EU-UK collision over Norther Ireland protocol, which was seen as another factor that further contributed to the sterling's underperformance against its European counterpart. In a standoff over the Northern Ireland protocol, the EU warned of swift and firm action if the UK fails to implement its post-Brexit obligations. Adding to this, French President Emmanuel Macron said that NI is not a part of the UK. This, along with a modest pickup in the shared currency, provided an additional lift to the EUR/GBP cross. The US dollar was seen consolidating Friday's strong move up as investors seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of the FOMC meeting on June 15-16. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that benefitted the euro. The combination of factors allowed the EUR/GBP cross to snap two consecutive days of the losing streak. Technical levels to watch  

Difficulties related to the Northern Ireland protocol have sparked the risk of a trade war between the UK and the EU – this has the potential to make

Difficulties related to the Northern Ireland protocol have sparked the risk of a trade war between the UK and the EU – this has the potential to make GBP reverse some of the ‘Brexit relief’ gains made at the start of the year, according to Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist, Head of FX Strategy a Rabobank. What’s more, a delay in plans to fully reopen the economy would be another headwind for the pound. GBP would likely see some unravelling of this year’s Brexit relief trade “While we have not changed our forecast that EUR/GBP could still head to 0.84 by year end, GBP bulls may continue to struggle to make headway vs. the EUR in the near-term.” “Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the complications surrounding the avoidance of a hard border across the island of Ireland have tended not to cause significant duress to GBP. This is probably because of the tendency of the UK government to publically underplay the complexity of the situation. However, if the issue manifests in trade tensions with the EU, GBP would likely see some unravelling of this year’s Brexit relief trade.” “Another disconcerting factor for GBP is the risk that on June 14, PM Johnson may announce that England’s economy will not be fully re-opened on June 21 after all. Although economic data are pointing to a strong surge in UK GDP growth in Q2, a push back to the June 21 full reopening in England is likely to hamper confidence.”  “To break lower from its current trading range EUR/GBP may first need to see speculation emerging about another shift in BoE policy. If markets remain calm during June and July, we see scope for a slowdown in the pace of purchases in the August MPC meeting. Support in the EUR/GBP 0.8560 area ahead of the 0.8472 April low.”  

The renewed USD strength on Friday forced gold to drop below $1,880 and post losses for the second straight week. If the downswing extends, a test of

The renewed USD strength on Friday forced gold to drop below $1,880 and post losses for the second straight week. If the downswing extends, a test of the 200-day moving average at $1840 will be inevitable, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer briefs. Buyers are having a hard time staying in control “A hawkish shift in the Fed’s tone amid an improved economic outlook and rising price pressures could provide a boost to the USD and weigh on XAU/USD in the second half of the week. On the other hand, the greenback is likely to underperform if FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell downplays inflation concerns and reiterates that they are not even thinking about tapering.” “A daily close below $1,873 could open the door for additional losses toward $1,855 (June 4 low) and $1,840 (200-day SMA).” “A tough resistance seems to have formed at $1,900, a psychological level. In case buyers manage to lift the price back above that level, the next target could be seen at $1,916 (June 1 high).”  

Silver extended the previous day's retracement slide from one-and-half-week tops and witnessed some follow-through selling on the first day of a new t

Silver witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Monday.Mixed technical indicators warrant some caution before placing any aggressive directional bets.Silver extended the previous day's retracement slide from one-and-half-week tops and witnessed some follow-through selling on the first day of a new trading week. This marked the second consecutive day of a negative move and dragged the commodity to two-day lows, around the $27.70 region during the early European session. From a technical perspective, last week's positive move faltered near the $28.25-30 region, marking a short-term ascending trend-line support breakpoint, now turned resistance. This should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the XAG/USD. Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have been drifting lower in the bearish territory and support prospects for additional intraday weakness. That said, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing the positive momentum – are yet to confirm a bearish bias and warrant some caution for traders. Hence, any subsequent fall is more likely to find decent support near the $27.40 region, or the lower boundary of a near one-month-old trading range. This is followed by the $27.20 horizontal support and the $27.00 mark, which if broken might be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and prompt aggressive selling. The next relevant support is pegged near the $26.60 area. Some follow-through selling might turn the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the $26.00 mark. The downward trajectory could further get extended towards challenging the very important 200-day SMA, currently near the $25.75-70 region. On the flip side, the $28.00 mark now seems to act as an immediate strong resistance ahead of the $28.25-30 supply zone. Sustained strength above has the potential to push the XAG/USD towards monthly tops, around the $28.75 region. Bulls might eventually push the commodity beyond the $29.00 mark, towards testing the $29.40-50 hurdle. XAG/USD daily chart Technical levels to watch  

USD/JPY is forecast to navigate between 109.10 and 110.15 for the time being, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The strong

USD/JPY is forecast to navigate between 109.10 and 110.15 for the time being, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The strong surge in USD to a high of 109.83 last Friday came as a surprise. The rapid advance has room to test 109.95 but a sustained rise above this level is unlikely. Support is at 109.55 followed by 109.30.” Next 1-3 week: “We have expected USD to ‘drift lower to 108.90’ since middle of last week. We highlighted that ‘a break of 109.85 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased’. USD soared to a high of 108.83 last Friday and while 109.85 is still intact, downward pressure has more or less dissipated. Momentum indicators have turned neutral and USD is likely to trade between 109.10 and 110.15 for now.”

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), exchanges gains with losses in the mid-90.00s at the beginning of the week. US Dollar Index

DXY keeps the tight range around 90.50 on Monday.US 10-year yields remain consolidative near 1.45%.Investors’ attention still gyrates around recent inflation figures.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), exchanges gains with losses in the mid-90.00s at the beginning of the week. US Dollar Index looks to yields, inflation The index manages well to keep the trade in the upper end of the recent range and close to the key 90.60/70 resistance band on Monday. In the meantime, investors continue to gauge the recent higher-than-expected inflation figures vs. the Fed’s view that the current strength in consumer prices is seen as temporary. It is worth recalling that the headline CPI rose at an annualized 5.0%, the highest level since 2008, while the core reading gained 3.8% from a year earlier. Still on the inflation issue, while consumer prices have likely peaked in May, the way down is predicted to be slower than anticipated. Nothing worth mentioning on the data front in the US calendar on Monday apart from a 3-month/6-month bill auctions. What to look for around USD The index so far survives above the 90.00 neighbourhood, which has emerged as a tough barrier for dollar bears. Higher inflation figures in May failed to ignite a serious bullish attempt in the buck while they also forced yields to recede to multi-month lows well below 1.50%. The outlook for the currency still remains on the negative side and this view is supported by the perseverant mega-dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (until “substantial further progress” in inflation and employment is made) in place for the time being and rising optimism on a strong global economic recovery, which is seen underpinning the risk complex.Key events in the US this week: Retail Sales, Producer Prices, Industrial Production (Tuesday) – Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC event (Wednesday) – Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index (Thursday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families, worth nearly $6 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.02% at 90.49 and faces the next support at 89.53 (monthly low May 25) followed by 89.20 (2021 low Jan.6) and then 88.94 (monthly low March 2018). On the other hand, a breakout of 90.62 (weekly high Jun.4) would open the door to 90.90 (weekly high May 13) and finally 91.05 (100-day SMA).

The UK Junior Health Minister Edward Argar said on Monday, the government could roll out more support measures for businesses in case of a delay to ea

The UK Junior Health Minister Edward Argar said on Monday, the government could roll out more support measures for businesses in case of a delay to easing Britain's lockdown restrictions. "Were he (the PM) to make an announcement that he's delaying it, I would expect him to address that issue as well at the same time," Argar said when asked if there would be extra support for businesses. “Boris Johnson will appeal to the nation to be patient tomorrow as he announces that the June 21 easing of lockdown restrictions will be delayed by up to four weeks,” The Times reported on Sunday. The official statement is due to be announced later today. Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Freed from "Freedom Day" speculation, sterling could surge

The AUD/USD pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses, around the 0.7700 mark through the early European ses

AUD/USD was seen oscillating in a range through the early European session on Monday.The prevalent risk-on environment extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie.A modest USD strength held bulls from placing fresh bets and capped any meaningful gains.The AUD/USD pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses, around the 0.7700 mark through the early European session. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus to the AUD/USD pair and led to a subdued/range-bound price action on the first day of a new trading week. This comes on the back of the previous session's dramatic turnaround from two-and-half-week tops and favours bearish traders. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets – as depicted by an extended rally in the global financial markets – acted as a tailwind for the perceived riskier aussie. That said, a modest US dollar strength largely offset the supporting factor and capped the upside for the AUD/USD pair. The USD consolidated Friday's strong move up to one-week tops amid expectations that the Fed might begin the discussion on tapering its asset purchases in the wake of rising inflationary pressures. It is worth recalling that the pace of inflation in the US climbed to a 13-year high in May. This, along with signs of stability in the US Treasury bond yields, forced investors to lighten their bearish USD bets ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop might hold traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the AUD/USD pair, at least for now. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the US on Monday. Hence, the US bond yields will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might further provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

GBP/USD is eyeing a sustained break below the 1.4100 level, as the bears remain in charge amid a broadly stronger US dollar and resurfacing Brexit con

GBP/USD bounces but not out of the woods yet amid looming Brexit concerns. The cable confirms a rising wedge breakdown on the daily chart.Eyes deeper losses, as the US dollar clings to recent gains ahead of Fed. GBP/USD is eyeing a sustained break below the 1.4100 level, as the bears remain in charge amid a broadly stronger US dollar and resurfacing Brexit concerns. The European Union (EU) officials remain concerned about the Brexit stand-off, this time over Northern Ireland’s (NI) protocol issue, as they warn the UK PM Boris Johnson of the Kingdom’s reputation. Meanwhile, a delay in the UK reopening amid the growing Indian delta covid strain also adds to the weight on the pound while the US dollar remains hopeful ahead of this week’s FOMC decision. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot confirmed a rising wedge breakdown on Friday after It closed the day below the ascending trendline support at 1.4116. Therefore, the downside remains exposed towards the 50-Daily Moving Average (DMA), now at 1.4005. Ahead of that the June 10 low of 1.4073 could test the bearish commitments. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recaptured the midline, although appears to lack follow-through recovery, suggesting a shallow bounce. GBP/USD daily chart On the flip side, the bulls need acceptance above the patten support now resistance at 1.4116, in order to extend the recovery momentum. Further up, the 21-DMA at 1.4155 will likely guard the additional advances. GBP/USD additional levels to watch  

AUD/USD risks a deeper pullback on a close below 0.7680 in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expect

AUD/USD risks a deeper pullback on a close below 0.7680 in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for AUD to ‘trade between 0.7730 and 0.7770’ was incorrect as it plummeted to 0.7689 during NY hours last Friday. While oversold, the decline has scope to test 0.7680 first before stabilizing. For today, a sustained decline below this level is unlikely (next support is at 0.7645). Resistance is at 0.7720 but only a break of 0.7740 would indicate that the current weakness in AUD has stabilized.” Next 1-3 weeks: “After trading in a quiet manner and within relatively narrow ranges for several days, the sudden expansion in range last Friday came as a surprise (AUD rose to 0.7776 before falling sharply to 0.7689). While downward momentum has improved, AUD has to close below 0.7680 before a move to 0.7645 can be expected. The prospect for AUD to close below 0.7680 appears to be quite high as long as it does not break the ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.7765 within these few days.”

Turkey Current Account Balance above forecasts ($-2.2B) in April: Actual ($-1.712B)

The reputation of the UK was at stake regarding tensions over the Brexit issue, the European Union's (EU) former Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, sa

The reputation of the UK was at stake regarding tensions over the Brexit issue, the European Union's (EU) former Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said in an interview with France Info radio on Monday. Additional quotes "The United Kingdom needs to pay attention to its reputation.”  "I want Mr Johnson to respect his signature." Market reaction GBP/USD shrugs off the above comments, as it bounces off lows at 1.4100 amid a retreat in the US dollar across the board. The spot was last seen trading at 1.4112, adding 0.05% so far. Read: France’s Beaune: Brexit tensions with the UK are a test for Europe

Commenting on the inflation outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said that the central bank is in a “dangerous zone” a

Commenting on the inflation outlook, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Robert Holzmann said that the central bank is in a “dangerous zone” as inflation concerns accelerate. Key quotes “Too early to talk about ending PEPP.” “PEPP will end in March next year unless a new virus wave occurs.” “PEPP was designed to be a temporary instrument.” On Friday, Holzmann said that if inflation went over 3% that would lead the central bank to a re-think of strategy. Market reaction EUR/USD is off the lows but maintains its range play around 1.2100, little changed on the day. Lagarde speech: It is too early to debate the end of PEPP purchases

The USD/JPY pair retreated around 15 pips from Asian session swing highs and was last seen trading with only modest intraday gains, around the 109.70-

A combination of factors assisted USD/JPY to gain some traction for the second straight session on Monday.The risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven JPY and remained supportive amid a modest USD strength.The lack of any strong follow-through buying warrants some caution before positioning for further gains.The USD/JPY pair retreated around 15 pips from Asian session swing highs and was last seen trading with only modest intraday gains, around the 109.70-65 region. Following the previous session's modest pullback from one-week tops, the pair caught some fresh bids on Monday and might now be looking to build on the recent bounce from 50-day SMA support. This marked the second consecutive day of a positive move and was sponsored by a combination of supporting factors. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets – as depicted by an extended rally in the global equity markets – continued undermining the safe-haven Japanese yen. Apart from this, a modest US dollar strength and signs of stability in the US Treasury bond yields remained supportive of the move up. Expectations that the Fed might begin the discussion on tapering its asset purchases in the face of rising inflationary pressures. In fact, the pace of inflation in the US climbed to a 13-year high in May. This, in turn, forced investors to lighten their bearish USD bets ahead of the FOMC policy meeting this week. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for additional gains, though bulls lacked conviction and once again failed near the 109.80-85 region. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move amid absent relevant market-moving macro releases. Technical levels to watch  

Following the weekend’s conversation between the French President Emmanuel Macron and the UK PM Boris Johnson, the French Europe Minister Clement Beau

Following the weekend’s conversation between the French President Emmanuel Macron and the UK PM Boris Johnson, the French Europe Minister Clement Beaune reaffirmed his country’s stance on the Brexit issues. Key quotes “Brexit tensions with the UK are a test for Europe.” “Brexit engagements need to be respected. “ “Reiterates that measures could be taken against the UK if the UK does not respect Brexit “engagements.” “Reiterates that France will defend the rights of its fishermen.” Market reaction GBP/USD is pressurizing the daily lows just ahead of 1.4100, undermined by the US dollar’s demand and the delay in the UK reopening. Brexit concerns return to haunt the pound traders. The spot is trading at 1.4107, almost unchanged on the day, at the press time.

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) registered at 0.8% above expectations (0.2%) in May

India WPI Inflation below expectations (13.07%) in May: Actual (12.94%)

Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) came in at 3.2%, above forecasts (2.8%) in May

FX option expiries for June 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.2025 382m 1.2050 283m 1.2150 1.3b

FX option expiries for June 14 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.2025 382m 1.2050 283m1.2150 1.3b1.2175 279m1.2200 1.26b- USD/JPY: USD amounts          109.15 300m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7750/65 933m - USD/CHF: USD amounts         0.8800 600m 0.9150 400m

The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to prep up markets towards tapering by taper talks when it meets this week at its mone

The US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to prep up markets towards tapering by taper talks when it meets this week at its monetary policy meeting, Morgan Stanley said in its latest research note. Key quotes "We expect especially notable near-term upward revisions to inflation projections, while we think the most likely outcome for the dot plot will show an even split among the Committee (9 vs. 9) on rate hikes in 2023." “Incoming US economic numbers have been overcoming necessary hurdles, and keeping the FOMC on track for its balance sheet discussions.” the data should lead the FOMC to maintain its view that "labor demand remains robust, and labor supply will soon begin to catch up to it." Related readsForex Today: Dollar extends gains, Musk triggers Bitcoin melt-up, Fed eagerly awaitedWhy FOMC could resort to monetary policy normalization sooner than expected – WSJ

The EUR/GBP price is keeping the trading nerve very tightly on Monday as the new trading week begins. The cross-currency pair is adhering to the preva

EUR/GBP remains muted in the early European session on Monday.The Euro coerces amid pre-Fed anxiety, ECB mindful outlook.Sterling gains on improved economic and inflation expectations.The EUR/GBP price is keeping the trading nerve very tightly on Monday as the new trading week begins. The cross-currency pair is adhering to the prevailing downside momentum with no meaningful traction for the time being.  At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8577, down 0.01% for the day. The broader sentiment remains volatile ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. The Euro is under selling pressure after ECB left its rates unchanged and confirmed the bond purchasing program at a higher speed than the previous months, even though the central bank improved its forward guidance on inflation and growth. In the latest development, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that the eurozone economy is on the right recovery path, still, it will be too early to talk about the tapering measures. This highlights the caution amid the policymakers, which weighs the performance of the Euro. On the other hand, the British pound is relatively in a better position in terms of economic recovery and outlook. However, the Brexit concerns continue to haunt the cable on the fear of a probable trade war between the  UK and EU. Meanwhile, experts believe that delay in economic re-opening by June 21 to another four weeks will likely have no impact on the sterling performance. The Bank of England (BOE) has already hinted about the less accommodative monetary policy in the coming policy meetings. The diverging stance on monetary policy makes GBP valuations attractive to investors as compared to the shared currency. EUR/GBP additional levels  

GBP/JPY struggles to extend early Asian recovery beyond 155.00, recently around 154.85, heading into Monday’s London open. In doing so, the cross-curr

GBP/JPY fades recovery from 154.65, stays mildly bid.Japan’s upbeat Industrial Production, Brexit jitters and delay in UK unlock fail to weigh on the quote.Risk catalysts keep the driver’s seat amid a light calendar.GBP/JPY struggles to extend early Asian recovery beyond 155.00, recently around 154.85, heading into Monday’s London open. In doing so, the cross-currency pair fails to justify upbeat Japanese data as well as price-negative updates for the British pound (GBP). Japan’s final reading of Industrial Production for April grew past 15.4% initial forecast and prior readings to 15.8%. However, soft Capacity Utilization, 1.1% versus 5.6% prior, seemed to have kept the pair buyers hopeful. On the other hand, a near 50% jump in the Delta variant of the covid pushes the UK towards extending the final unlock deadline from 21 June by a month. Additionally, the European Union (EU) remains firm on their demand for Britain’s total surrender to the previously agreed deal over Northern Ireland (NI). However, US President Joe Biden’s refrain from warning UK PM Boris Johnson, as well as French leader Emmanuel Macron’s readiness to ease tension between England and Paris, also favor the GBP/JPY buyers. It’s worth noting that mildly bid S&P 500 Futures and global policymakers, mainly from the Group of Seven (G7) readiness to further donate covid vaccines and keep relief packages flowing might also have contributed to the quote’s recent gains. Though, a lack of major data and absence of traders from Australia and China, coupled with the pre-Fed trading lull and G7 updates for Beijing, push GBP/JPY traders to search for fresh clues. In doing so, risk catalysts will be the key as a light calendar and the market’s cautious sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting probes momentum traders. Technical analysis Although 10-day SMA guards immediate GBP/JPY upside around the 155.00 threshold, bears won’t be serious until the quote stays beyond an ascending trend line from December 21, around 153.95.  

CME Group’s advanced prints for natural gas futures markets noted open interest went up for the fourth session in a row on Friday, this time by more t

CME Group’s advanced prints for natural gas futures markets noted open interest went up for the fourth session in a row on Friday, this time by more than 34K contracts, the largest single-day build so far this year. Volume followed suit and rose by around 196.3K contracts, clinching the second straight build. Natural Gas in YTD highs Prices of natural gas finally reached the area of yearly highs around the $3.30 mark per MMBtu. Friday’s uptick was in tandem with rising open interest and volume, leaving the door open to extra upside in the short-term horizon.

In light of flash data for crude oil futures markets from CME Group, open interest extended the downtrend for yet another session on Friday, this time

In light of flash data for crude oil futures markets from CME Group, open interest extended the downtrend for yet another session on Friday, this time by around 21.2K contracts. On the other hand, volume rose for the sixth consecutive session, now by around 522.1K contracts, the largest single-day build since March 23. WTI: Overbought levels could prompt some correctionWTI prices extended the rally on Friday and clinched fresh tops, all amidst declining open interest. This, plus the current overbought conditions of the commodity (as per the daily RSI) could spark some near-term corrective downside. The broader outlook, however, remains tilted to the positive side for the time being.

Copper consolidates recent gains around $4.52, down 0.45% intraday, amid early Monday. The red metal took a U-turn from the convergence of 200-SMA and

Copper sellers battle immediate support line following a pullback from 200-SMA, six-week-old triangle resistance.MACD teases bears but sellers need rejection of bullish chart pattern.Clear break of $4.59 will trigger run-up towards refreshing record top.Copper consolidates recent gains around $4.52, down 0.45% intraday, amid early Monday. The red metal took a U-turn from the convergence of 200-SMA and the upper line of the short-term triangle the previous day. While receding bullish bias of MACD backs Copper sellers, a two-day-old rising support line near $4.52 restricts the commodity’s immediate declines. Other than the nearby trend line, the lower line of the stated descending triangle, around $4.43, also acts as the key support for the copper traders to watch during the quote’s further weakness. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond $4.59 needs confirmation from the $4.60 round figure to challenge the monthly top close to $4.70. In a case where the copper buyers keep reins past $4.70, the recently flashed record top near $4.88 and the $5.00 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. To sum up, copper prices are in consolidation mode and hence a pullback can’t be ruled out. However, the overall trend remains firm and a clear break of $4.59 will confirm the bullish chart pattern, adding strength to the upside momentum. Price of copper: Daily chart Trend: Pullback expected

Hopes to present strategy review results by the end of summer We are on the road to recovery, squarely on the way to pre-pandemic levels Likely to be

Hopes to present strategy review results by the end of summer We are on the road to recovery, squarely on the way to pre-pandemic levels Likely to be back there in Q1 2022 Thinks that ECB has delivered in terms of policy support   more to come ...

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 14: Markets are relatively calm on Monday as traders already have Wednesday's Fed decision in mind. US i

Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 14: Markets are relatively calm on Monday as traders already have Wednesday's Fed decision in mind. US infrastructure talks seem stuck. Tesla's Musk lifted boosted Bitcoin while Britain is set to push back the reopening. Oil extends its upward march and gold consolidates its losses. The US dollar has been edging higher, extending gains recorded on Friday. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index beat expectations in June while its inflation component dropped. That somewhat contrasts the stronger-than-estimated Consumer Price Index figures published earlier. While the calendar is relatively light on Monday, tensions are mounting toward Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Analysts seem split between calling for the bank to provide the first hint of tapering its bond-buying scheme and no change in policy at this juncture.  The Fed holds the market – How long will it last? President Joe Biden's efforts to approve infrastructure spending have reportedly run into objections from his own party. That dampens hope arising from a bipartisan proposal discussed last week. The president continues touring Europe and US 10-year Treasury yields are hovering below 1.50%.UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce a four-week delay in plans to fully reopen the economy, moving "Freedom Day" from June 21 to July 19. The Delta variant of COVID-19 continues spreading rapidly. Disagreement between Britain and the EU was apparent at the G-7 meeting.  Leaders of the group confronted China on human rights in Xinjiang and the origins of COVID-19. Markets seem to shrug off this development.  Tesla's founder Elon Musk has been flexing his muscle around Bitcoin's price, this time pledging to invest in BTC if more mining comes from renewable sources. Bitcoin surged above $39,000, Etehreum changes hands at around $2,500 and Shiba received a boost. WTI Crude Oil has been holding onto its gains and trades at around $71 in hopes of stronger demand. Gold continues trading in a tight inverse correlation with the dollar, changing hands at around $1,864.     

The USD/CAD pair edges lower in the initial European trading hours on the fresh trading week. The pair rose near to the multi-month high on Friday, ho

USD/CAD clings to modest losses on Monday.Bulls are facing stiff resistance near the 1.2180 mark.Overbought MACD looks exhaustive, warns against aggressive bids. The USD/CAD pair edges lower in the initial European trading hours on the fresh trading week. The pair rose near to the multi-month high on Friday, however,  failed to sustain the gains. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades at 1.2151, down 0.04% for the day. USD/CAD 4-hour chart On the 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD pair forms a double top formation near the 1.2180 mark, which initiates the downside momentum in the pair. A double top formation is a bearish reversal technical formation. In doing so, USD/CAD bears are dominating the trend and in the progression to meet the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, which extends from the low of 1.2007, at 1.2137. The mentioned level is the critical level as it's a resistance-turned-support level. The  Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator trades in the overbought zone signaling overbought buying opportunities. Any downtick in MACD could prompt the bears to target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2116 followed by the 1.2075 horizontal support level. Alternatively, if price moves and sustains above the session’s high then USD/CAD bulls could continue to push higher toward the May 13 high at 1.2200 followed by the 1.2220 horizontal resistance level. The next area of resistance would appear at the 1.2288 level, which is high on May 6.      USD/CAD additional levels  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the Cable now faces increasing chances of a move to 1.4080/50 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “O

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the Cable now faces increasing chances of a move to 1.4080/50 in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for the ‘rebound in GBP to extend higher’ last Friday was incorrect as it dropped sharply to 1.4095 instead. Despite the relatively sharp drop, downward momentum has not improved by much. However, there is scope for GBP to test the major support at 1.4080. A dip below this level is not ruled out but the next support at 1.4050 is not expected to come into the picture. Resistance is at 1.4140 followed by 1.4160.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (11 Jun, spot at 1.4175), we indicated that GBP ‘does not appear to be ready to move lower in a sustained manner’ and we expected it to ‘trade within a relatively broad range of 1.4080/1.4220’. GBP subsequently dropped to 1.4095 and shorter-term downward momentum has improved somewhat. That said, it is premature to expect a sustained decline. From here, GBP has to close below 1.4080 before a move to 1.4050 can be expected (next support is at 1.4005). At this stage, the prospect for GBP to close below 1.4080 is not high but it would increase as long as GBP does not move above 1.4185 (‘strong resistance’ level) within these few days.”

Gold (XAU/USD) licks its wounds around $1,864, following the drop to weekly/monthly low surrounding $1,860, ahead of Monday’s European session. In doi

Gold stays pressured near weekly/monthly low, extends Friday’s losses.US dollar benefits from safe-haven bids ahead of FOMC, Treasury yields consolidate latest losses.Off in Australia, China and a light calendar limits fresh catalysts needed for bounce, G7 updates battle stimulus hopes.US Retail Sales may offer intermediate direction ahead of FOMC.Gold (XAU/USD) licks its wounds around $1,864, following the drop to weekly/monthly low surrounding $1,860, ahead of Monday’s European session. In doing so, the gold sellers cheer Friday’s downside break of the key support as well as firmer US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY) prints 0.07% gains, up for the second consecutive day, as market players seek solace in the greenback amid fears of the Fed’s tapering. The indecision over Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) magnified following another upbeat US data, namely Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. However, softer print of the inflation component allows the Fed policymakers to keep their defense to easy money policies. Also on the same line could be the mixed releases of the latest US employment data and chatters over the supply crunch portraying a short-term challenge to the price pressure. It’s worth mentioning that a one-month low of the US inflation expectations, per 10-year breakeven inflation rate data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), also favors the doves at the Fed. Other than the pre-Fed jitters, the Western push to reinvestigate covid origins and dislike for China’s performance in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, per the latest Group of Seven (G7) meetings, should also favor the USD, which in turn weighs on the gold prices by the press time. Furthermore, uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan adds to the gold’s weakness. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Future print mild gains but the US 10-year Treasury yields remain indecisive by the press time. Moving on, a light calendar and an off in Australia, as well as China, could restrict gold’s short-term moves but the bears are less likely to relinquish controls. Technical analysis Gold’s clear break of $1,877-75 support confluence, comprising a 2.5-month-old rising trend line and a horizontal area from late January, keeps sellers hopeful amid the most bearish MACD signals since early May. While the monthly bottom surrounding $1,855 can offer an intermediate halt, the metal’s declines towards testing 200-day SMA (DMA) level of $1,840 can’t be ruled out unless it jumps back beyond $1,877. It’s worth noting that any further weakness past 200-DMA will make gold prices vulnerable enough to retest late February tops near $1,816. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond $1,877 needs to cross the $1,900 threshold, as well as a falling trend line from early January near $1,907, to recall the gold buyers. Following that, the previous month’s peak surrounding $1,917 and the yearly peak close to $1,960 should return to the charts. Gold daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected Also read FOMC: Words not actions Hot Inflation is warming the seat for the June FOMC Is gold really an inflation hedge?

Open interest in gold futures markets shrank by nearly 3.1K contracts on Friday according to flash data from CME Group. In the same direction, volume

Open interest in gold futures markets shrank by nearly 3.1K contracts on Friday according to flash data from CME Group. In the same direction, volume extended the choppy activity and dropped by around 32.6K contracts. Gold faces support near $1,850 Another rejection from the $1,900 area sparked a moderate selloff in gold prices at the end of last week. The move, however, was on the back of shrinking open interest and volume, indicative that a deeper pullback is not favoured in the very near term. That said, the so far monthly lows around $1,855 per ounce troy (June 4) and the 200-day SMA ($1,851) emerge as a decent contention for the time being.

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD now risks a potential drop to the 1.2050 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The swift and s

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD now risks a potential drop to the 1.2050 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The swift and sharp decline in EUR to a low of 1.2091 last Friday came as a surprise (we were expecting EUR to trade between 1.2140 and 1.2200). The rapid drop is accompanied by strong momentum and EUR is expected to weaken further. That said, oversold conditions suggest that the next major support at 1.2050 is likely out of reach (there is another support at 1.2075). On the upside, 1.2150 is expected to be strong enough to cap any rebound (minor resistance is at 1.2135).” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from last Wednesday (09 Jun, spot at 1.2175) where EUR ‘could trade between 1.2125 and 1.2220 for a period of time’. We highlighted that EUR ‘has to close below 1.2125 or above 1.2220 before a sustained directional move can be expected’. EUR plummeted to 1.2091 last Friday before closing on a weak note at 1.2106 (-0.52%). Rapid improvement in downward momentum suggests that EUR is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 1.2050. Resistance is at 1.2150 but only a break of 1.2180 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the current downward pressure in EUR has eased.”

Japan Capacity Utilization: 1.1% (April) vs previous 5.6%

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 15.8% above expectations (15.4%) in April

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) above expectations (2.5%) in April: Actual (2.9%)

Asia-pacific shares trade mixed on Monday diverting from the gains on the US stock market in the last trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Averag

Asia-Pacific shares started the new session on a lower on Monday.Risk aversion keeps investors away from riskier assets.China and Australia market remain closed for trading today.Asia-pacific shares trade mixed on Monday diverting from the gains on the US stock market in the last trading session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.04%, S&P 500 gained 0.19%, and the Nasdaq added 0.35% gains on Friday. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1%. The major markets in the region-China, Hong Kong, and Australia are shut on Monday. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.35%, Kospi edged down by 0.01%, and Topix gained 0.25%. Meanwhile, the Japanese government decided to lift the COVID-19 restrictions in its three provinces on declined corona cases and eased hospital strain. The Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Friday reaffirmed to go ahead with the Tokyo Olympics in July, despite concerns over the coronavirus pandemic. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting later in the week. Furthermore, the G7 leaders decided to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative amid heavy criticism of COVID-19 origin and Human rights issue.  As there is no direct response from China, although China’s Embassy in London issued a statement that says days of “Small Group '' of countries dictating global decisions are long gone, sours the market sentiment. Gold is trading at $1,864.20, down 0.82% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 90.53 with 0.03% gains.

USD/INR struggles to extend Friday’s uptrend above 73.00, up 0.05% around 73.35, amid the initial hour of Monday’s Indian trading session. The Indian

USD/INR consolidates Friday’s breakout of six-week-old resistance line, now support.Bullish MACD, monthly support line favor the buyers.200-day SMA adds to upside filters, 74.00 becomes the key hurdle.USD/INR struggles to extend Friday’s uptrend above 73.00, up 0.05% around 73.35, amid the initial hour of Monday’s Indian trading session. The Indian rupee (INR) pair broke a key upside hurdle, now support, from early May the previous day. However, 100-day SMA (DMA) restricts the quote’s immediate upside by the press time. Given the bullish MACD and the pair’s sustained breakout of the said trend line, not to forget an ascending support line from May 28, keep USD/INR buyers hopeful. Hence, a daily closing beyond 73.30 adjacent SMA resistance will escalate the recovery moves to 73.50, comprising 200-day SMA. Though, any further rise needs to cross the 74.00 threshold comprising multiple tops marked since late February to convince USD/INR bulls. Alternatively, pullback moves may bounce off the 73.00 round-figure comprising the previous resistance line and the immediate rising trend line support. Should the USD/INR sellers conquer the 73.00 threshold, the pair’s further weakness towards 72.75 and 72.30 can’t be ruled out. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Reuters confirmed on Monday that US President Joe Biden will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Geneva. The White House annou

Reuters confirmed on Monday that US President Joe Biden will meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Geneva. The White House announced over the weekend that President Biden will hold a press conference after their meeting.   Ahead of the meeting, Biden said, "I'll be very straightforward with him about our concerns." "Let me make it clear. I think he is right it is a low point," Biden said about Putin's recent assessment of the Moscow-Washington relationship. "And it depends on how he responds to acting consistently with international norms. Which in many cases he has not,” US President added. Market reaction The risk sentiment is little affected by the above news, as investors remain cautious amid the G7 communique and ahead of the all-important FOMC decision.

EUR/USD sellers flirt with monthly bottom, flashed Friday, amid sluggish trading hours of early Monday. Even so, the bearish bias remains intact for t

EUR/USD remains pressured around one-month low, down for third consecutive day.Sluggish markets back US dollar amid fears of Fed action.G7 couldn’t pamper EU policymakers despite upbeat announcements.Eurozone Industrial Production may entertain traders but risk catalysts are the key.EUR/USD sellers flirt with monthly bottom, flashed Friday, amid sluggish trading hours of early Monday. Even so, the bearish bias remains intact for the third day as the quote prints 0.10% losses on the day around 1.2095 heading into the European session. Market’s rush to risk-safety puts a bid under the US dollar and weighs down the quote despite an absence of fresh catalysts. The cautious mood could be traced from the pre-Fed indecision and a lack of major positives for the bloc after the Group of Seven (G7) meeting. Also offering a tailwind to the pair could be the recently strong US data and the G7 verdict that seems to escalate the tussles between the West and China. US dollar index (DXY) gains around 0.08% while keeping Friday’s upside momentum around 90.57. The greenback gauge jumped the most in a week the previous day on strong Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index renewing a push for the Fed tapering. Additionally helping the USD is be the uncertainty over President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan as well as fears relating to the covid variants. Elsewhere, G7 agreed over a tough stand against Beijing as policymakers backed detailed investigations on the covid origin as well as criticized China’s roe Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Furthermore, Brussel’s failure to get Biden strongly on their side, as far as Brexit is concerned, also weighs on the EUR/USD prices. The bloc policymakers push for American meddling to break the deadlock over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. However, Biden refrained from any strong warning to UK PM Boris Johnson. Alternatively, improving relations between Germany and the US, coupled with the global economic recovery from the pandemic, restricts the EUR/USD downside. A light calendar and an off in Australia and China are also on the same line to test the pair sellers. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields wobble around 1.46% by the press time. Moving on, Eurozone Industrial Production for April, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.1% prior, could offer immediate direction but the sellers aren’t likely to give up the hopes. Technical analysis Although 50-day SMA tests the EUR/USD pair’s sustained trading below an ascending support line from May 13, a three-week-old falling channel and downbeat oscillators keep sellers hopeful.  

Following the conclusion of the meeting of the Group of Seven leaders (G7) over the weekend, the heads issued a highly critical final communique, stre

Following the conclusion of the meeting of the Group of Seven leaders (G7) over the weekend, the heads issued a highly critical final communique, stressing on China, in light of Beijing’s human rights issues, covid origins and a bunch of other relevant issues. Key takeaways "We will promote our values, including by calling on China to respect human rights and fundamental freedoms, especially in relation to Xinjiang and those rights, freedoms and a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong enshrined in the Sino-British Joint Declaration.” Called for a transparent, expert-led Phase 2 COVID-19 Origins study including in China, to be convened by the World Health Organization (WHO).” underscored "the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, and encourage the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues.” "We remain seriously concerned about the situation in the East and South China Seas and strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo and increase tensions." “G7 calls for preservation of Hong Kong freedoms.” Market implications The market mood appears mixed amid holiday-thinned light trading, as investors digest the G7 outcome and US stimulus updates while a tad nervous ahead of the FOMC meeting this Wednesday. The S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% near 4,240 while the US dollar holds the higher ground above 90.50 against its main peers.

The rebound in the US dollar from the lower level keeps GBP/USD gains limited on the first trading day of the week. The pair subsides following a comb

GBP/USD trades with a cautious tone in the Asian session.Uptick in US Treasury yields lifts the US dollar.GBP is under stress amid unlocking delay and Brexit concernThe rebound in the US dollar from the lower level keeps GBP/USD gains limited on the first trading day of the week. The pair subsides following a combination of factors in the absence of any major fundamental release. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.4114, up 0.05% for the day. The US dollar trades near the five-week high at 90.55 following the gains in the US 10-year benchmark yields from the lower levels to trade at 1.46%. Investors digested the higher US inflation reading and cheered the robust economic data. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment came at 86.4, much above the market expectations at 84. Meanwhile, the G-7 countries vowed to launch a ‘democratic’ alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative to undermine the competition. Beijing came under severe criticism over the covid-19 origin and human rights violations. The sour market sentiment added to the attractiveness of the US dollar. On the other hand, the sterling is struggling with the renewed pressure of the delayed economic opening plan. In the latest development, senior ministers in the UK have signed off a decision to delay the lifting of all covid-19 restrictions beyond June 21. This, in turn, weighs on the currency performance in the view that it can affect the pace of economic recovery. In addition to that, Brexit remains a pain for Prime Minister Boris Jhonson. The spat between UK and EU over the Northern Ireland protocol attracted political attention from all over the world. After US President Joe Biden offered his negotiation proposal, the latest addition to the row is French President Emmanuel Macron. He commented that NI is not a  part of the UK after the Prime Minister asked for his reactions on the issue. French President in the G7 meeting further said that Franco-British ties can be reset as long as Britain honours the Brexit deal. As for now, investors await the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech to gauge the market sentiment. GBP/USD additional level
 

AUD/USD regains the 0.7700 threshold, following a drop to the intraday low of 0.7692, amid a lackluster trading session on Monday. While an extended w

AUD/USD remains on the back foot near one-week low.Risk appetite dwindles amid pre-Fed cautious, lack of catalysts.Off in Australia, China and a light calendar elsewhere add to the sluggish markets.AUD/USD regains the 0.7700 threshold, following a drop to the intraday low of 0.7692, amid a lackluster trading session on Monday. While an extended weekend in Australia and China restricts market moves, a light calendar and thin news feed keep the pair tight-lipped of late. Even so, mildly bid S&P 500 Futures restrict the Aussie pair’s downside amid a quiet session. Headlines suggesting the Australian drive to sign fresh trade deals with the UK, as well as firming up ties with Japan and Germany by agreeing on lower-emission technology usage add barriers to the Aussie pair’s short-term downside. Further, the Group of Seven (G7) leaders’ agreement over pushing covid vaccines and keep relief packages flowing limit the quote’s declines. On the contrary, the US dollar index (DXY) remains firm, up 0.07% around 90.55, by the press time as market players prefer greenback uncertain times like this. The latest blow to market sentiment could be traced from the strong US data challenging the Fed policymakers ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the G7 verdicts against China, mainly related to the covid origin and Xinjiang issue. Meanwhile, the receding coronavirus (COVID-19) woes in Australia also back the AUD/USD buyers to battle the firmer US dollar. “Victorian authorities have said they expect Victoria will be in a position to lift COVID-19 restrictions later in the week, in the wake of one new local case being recorded,” said ABC News. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw around 1.46% whereas the Asia-Pacific stocks remain subdued. Moving on chatters over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan may offer intermediate clues, as well as the American traders’ reaction to the G7 developments, amid an expected pre-Fed trading lull. Technical analysis An impending bearish cross-over of the 50-day SMA to 21-day SMA keeps AUD/USD sellers hopeful. However, an ascending trend line from April 01, close to 0.7660, becomes the tough nut to crack for the bears.  

NZD/USD is testing the daily highs near the 0.7150 barrier, having caught a fresh bid wave after the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER

NZD/USD catches a fresh bid after NZIER ups New Zealand’s growth outlook. The kiwi ignores the US dollar’s strength, as it bounces off key daily support. All eyes remain on the FOMC decision for the next direction in the kiwi. NZD/USD is testing the daily highs near the 0.7150 barrier, having caught a fresh bid wave after the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) revised up the South Pacific Island nation’s near-term economic growth outlook.  The NZIER said in its latest report, “the near-term growth outlook has been revised up ... annual average growth in GDP is expected to reach 5 percent in March 2022.” New Zealand’s renewed economic optimism outweighs the broad-based US dollar strength, as markets look for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy path, with the FOMC meeting scheduled this week. The NZD bulls also ignored the dismal Business NZ PSI (May) and G7’s take on China, as the kiwi found some solid support at 0.7115. NZD/USD technical outlook On the daily chart, it can be seen that the price has bounced off the abovementioned critical support level, which is depicted by the horizontal (orange) trendline connecting previous lows.                                 This comes as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sees an upturn, looking to recapture the 50.00 level. NZD/USD daily chart The rebound could face stiff resistance around 0.7185, the confluence of the 50 and 100-Daily Moving Averages (DMA). Meanwhile, a daily closing below 0.7115 could trigger a steep drop towards the 200-DMA at 0.7035. NZD/USD additional levels to watch  

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), In an editorial opinion piece, explains why the Federal Reserve (Fed) could likely dial back monetary stimulus sooner t

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), In an editorial opinion piece, explains why the Federal Reserve (Fed) could likely dial back monetary stimulus sooner than expected. Key quotes The Fed goal of maximum employment and why hitting it could come sooner than expected. “2.6 million people retired since February 2020, according to estimates from the Dallas Fed. “ “Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said June 4 on CNBC. "Typically, when people retire, they don't come back into the labor force." “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ... said on June 5 that while employment remains more than 7 million jobs below pre-pandemic levels, increased retirements could mean "we don't need to regain quite that many to get back to full employment." “While current Fed officials have been less explicit in their public comments, they have signaled a similar openness. “ Note that the FOMC meets this week, June 15 and 16, to decide on its monetary policy. Related readsFOMC Preview: To early to begin ‘taper clock’ in June – Goldman SachsUS dollar in focus ahead of the FOMC

French President Macron offers UK PM Johnson 'Le reset' if he keeps his Brexit word – Reuters developing story ...

French President Macron offers UK PM Johnson 'Le reset' if he keeps his Brexit word – Reuters   developing story ...

EUR/JPY retreats to 132.81 following a two-day downtrend during early Monday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair extends multiple rejections from 10

EUR/JPY keeps last week’s failures to cross 10-day SMA.Bearish MACD backs further downside to six-week-old resistance-turned-support.Monthly resistance line adds to the upside filters.EUR/JPY retreats to 132.81 following a two-day downtrend during early Monday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair extends multiple rejections from 10-day SMA towards retesting the previous resistance line, now support, amid bearish MACD signals. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s weakness past 132.50 becomes doubtful as an ascending support line from January 18, around 132.20, can test EUR/JPY bears. Also, a clear downside below 132.20 needs validation from the 132.00 round figure before dragging the quote to May’s low near 131.00. On the flip side, a daily close beyond the 10-day SMA level of 133.35 will escalate recovery moves to the short-term falling trend line close to 133.70. During the EUR/JPY price uptrend beyond 133.70, the monthly high near 134.15 and late 2017 tops near 134.50 will be the key to watch. EUR/JPY daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts (CF) show that beyond the weaker starting point for Gross Domestic Produce growth, the near-term growth outlook h

The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts (CF) show that beyond the weaker starting point for Gross Domestic Produce growth, the near-term growth outlook has been revised up. ''On average, annual average growth in GDP is expected to reach 5 percent in March 2022.''   Across the sectors, the revisions were mixed, with a downward revision to household spending but an upward revision to investment the press release goes on to say, followed by: ''Despite the downward revisions, the outlook for household spending remains robust reflecting the effects of higher household income as the labour market improves.'' ''Construction is expected to remain the main driver of the recovery in the New Zealand economy over the coming years. In particular, residential construction is expected to grow strongly over the coming years, with annual average growth expected to reach 11.5 percent in March 2022.'' Full PDF NZD/USD Price Analysis: Sellers await 0.7115 breakdown for fresh entry

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to hint at tapering at its monetary policy meeting scheduled this week

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to hint at tapering at its monetary policy meeting scheduled this week. Key quotes “It’s too early for the Federal Open Market Committee to begin the "taper clock" in their preview.” “We do not expect Chair Powell to deliver the first hint at tapering in June.” “Powell likely agrees with Governor Brainard and President Williams that the labor market has not yet come far enough. “ “We continue to expect the first hint in August or September.”

S&P 500 Futures wobble around all-time high, flashed on Friday, as taking rounds to 4,238-40 amid early Monday. The risk-barometer jumped to the recor

S&P 500 Futures portray market’s cautious mood amid a quiet session, off in Australia and China.Pre-Fed trading lull joins absence of surprises from G7 to add to the sluggish sentiment.S&P 500 Futures wobble around all-time high, flashed on Friday, as taking rounds to 4,238-40 amid early Monday. The risk-barometer jumped to the record top the previous day as strong US data and chatters over further stimulus favored the bulls. However, a lack of major catalysts and indecision over the Fed’s next moves recently cap the equity derivative’s performance. Also acting as a filter is the extended weekend in Australia, China and Hong Kong. Given the strong US data posing serious challenges to the Fed’s rejection of tapering, not to forget considering the price pressure as temporary, this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) becomes the key. It’s worth noting that monetary policy adjustment, or the strong hints of the same, by the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Bank of England (BOE) also pushes the US monetary policymakers to act. Even so, the nascent stage of recovery and fears of equity market rout, not to forget the latest challenges due to the Delta variant of the covid, probes the US central bank policymakers to remain cautious. Also acting as a filter to the market moves could be an absence of any surprises from the Group of Seven (G7) meeting. While offering a gist of the G7 verdict Reuters said, “The G7 singled out China in their communique for human rights in Xinjiang, demanded freedoms and a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong, and said a full investigation was needed into the origins of the novel coronavirus. The Group of Seven rich nations promised to tackle China's growing influence, fight climate change, get more COVID-19 jabs to poor countries and keep up their economic stimulus programs at their first summit since Joe Biden became US President.” Amid these plays, US 10-year Treasury yields remain wobble around 1.46% whereas the US dollar index (DXY) keeps Friday’s recovery moves near 90.55, up 0.07% intraday. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events, coupled with a cautious mood, keeps investors at bay. However, updates over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan and covid may entertain intraday traders. Also read: Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD remains pressured around $1,870 as pre-Fed caution backs USD strength

The EUR/GBP cross-currency pair extends the previous two day’s losses on Monday’s morning Asian session. As of writing, EUR/GBP was trading at 0.8575,

EUR/GBP remains muted in the Asian session on Monday.Bulls pressurized below the 20-day SMA.Momentum oscillator hints at downside momentum.The EUR/GBP cross-currency pair extends the previous two day’s losses on Monday’s morning Asian session. As of writing, EUR/GBP was trading at 0.8575, down 0.04% for the day. EUR/GBP daily chart On the daily chart, the EUR/GBP cross has been consolidating near the 0.8570 level, with multiple lows formation making it a critical level to trade. The descending trendline from the high of 0.8719 is exerting selling pressure on the pair. If price breaks the above mentioned level, then it could intensify the downside momentum toward the 0.8555 horizontal support level, the level last in March. Adding to that, the Relative Strength Index ( RSI) reads at 40, which signifies the underlying bearish tone in EUR/GBP. The EUR bears would be encouraged to test June 26 low at 0.8534 followed by the 0.8500 horizontal support level. Alternatively, if price sustained above the session’s high, then it could crawl back to the 0.8610 horizontal resistance level. Next, the cross would attempt to hit the June 10 high at 0.8642.  A move above the 0.8642 level will also coincide with the break of the bearish sloping line and making a path clear to the 0.8660 horizontal resistance level. EUR/GBP additional level
 

The price action of AUD/CAD is compelling from an hourly perspective with the recent correction of the prior bearish impulse well and truly running ou

AUD/CAD hourly bearish engulfing is encouraging price action for the bears. AUD/CAD double top fuelling a bearish set-up.The price action of AUD/CAD is compelling from an hourly perspective with the recent correction of the prior bearish impulse well and truly running out of steam.  Hourly chart 15-min chart  The price has dropped below the 21-hourly and 21-min EMAs which exposes the downside.  A retest of the prior 15-min support structure might be the next phase in what is otherwise expected to be a downside continuation to test the hourly demand area of the chart in the 0.9330/50s.  A break of 0.9360 will be a promising development for the bears.

NZD/USD drops back towards 0.7130, down 0.07% intraday, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the kiwi pair extends Friday’s 100-day EMA breakdown

NZD/USD fades bounce off six-week-old horizontal support, keeps Friday’s 100-day EMA breakdown.Bearish MACD also favors sellers, falling trend line from May 26 adds to the upside filters.NZD/USD drops back towards 0.7130, down 0.07% intraday, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the kiwi pair extends Friday’s 100-day EMA breakdown towards the previous month’s low. Other than the downside break of the 100-day EMA, around 0.7155, bearish MACD also favors NZD/USD sellers targeting 0.7115 horizontal support. It should, however, be noted that early March lows near 0.7100 and multiple tops marked around 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of February-March downside, near 0.7065, adds to the pair’s supports. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 100-day EMA level of 0.7155 won’t be enough for the NZD/USD bulls to return as a convergence of a three-week-old falling trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement level close to 0.7205 pose a serious challenge to the pair’s upside momentum. Even if the quote rises past 0.7205, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and late May high, respectively around 0.7265 and 0.7320, will be the key resistances to watch. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Bearish  

USD/JPY is on the way to the 110 area as the US dollar continues to firm following Friday's bullish perforace. The -61.8% Fibonacci of the hourly corr

USD/JPY is on the verge of a restest of the 110.00 level. Bulls have pierced the hourly resistance and broken 15-min structure. USD/JPY is on the way to the 110 area as the US dollar continues to firm following Friday's bullish perforace.  The -61.8% Fibonacci of the hourly correction comes in at 109.99.  Hourly chart 15-min chart The 15-min resistance structure was broken in the Tokyo open which would now be expected to act as support. Bulls have a high probability set up on the table at this juncture.   

USD/CAD takes rounds to 1.2160, keeping the range above 1.2155, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair remains sidelined around the

USD/CAD wobbles in a 10-pips range around monthly top flashed on Friday.USD strength battles WTI moves amid a quiet session.Market sentiment dwindles during pre-Fed period, G7 refrained from surprises.Canadian Manufacturing Sales to decorate a light calendar.USD/CAD takes rounds to 1.2160, keeping the range above 1.2155, amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Loonie pair remains sidelined around the monthly top amid an inactive session. Not only the lack of major data/events but mixed catalyst and off in Australia and China also restrict the pair’s moves of late. Cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) put a bid under the US dollar and backs the USD/CAD buyers to extend Friday’s heavy gains. However, Canada’s key export item, WTI crude oil, remains firm near the late 2018 highs flashed on Friday and weighs on the quote. An absence of any surprises from the Group of Seven (G7) meeting, concluded during the weekend, also adds to the market’s sluggish moves, weighing on the USD/CAD prices. That said, the G7 verdict pushes for a detailed investigation into the covid origins and harshly criticizes China over labor law infringement. Though, the global leaders’ push for more stimulus and vaccines seem to balance the mood. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain unchanged. However, the US dollar index (DXY) keeps Friday’s gains at around 90.55. Given the lack of fresh catalysts, today’s Canadian Manufacturing Sales for April, prior to 3.5%, could offer small moves to USD/CAD prices. Technical analysis A clear break of 21-day EMA, around 1.2123, directs USD/CAD buyers toward May 13 top near 1.2200.  

The USD/CHF pair is accumulating minor gains in the early Asian session on Monday. The pair is moving in a very narrow trade band consisting of 10-pip

USD/CHF starts the fresh trading session on a quiet note.US dollar gains on upbeat economic data in a busy trading week.CHF remains grounded on its safe-haven appeal.The USD/CHF pair is accumulating minor gains in the early Asian session on Monday. The pair is moving in a very narrow trade band consisting of 10-pips.  At the time of writing, USD/CHF trades at 0.8980, up 0.01% for the day. The appreciative move in the US dollar kept USD/CHF higher in the previous session. Investors stay invested in the greenback ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC meeting this week. The upbeat economic data continued to bolster the economic recovery and gained the prospects of sooner than expected Fed tapering. However, Fed officials have continued to downplay the rising pricing pressure as transitory. The US dollar index gained on Friday after the US Michigan Consumer sentiment rose to 86.4 in June, beating the market sentiment of 84.  Meanwhile, the recent clash between the US and China sour the market sentiment that helped the US dollar to gain some traction. The Biden administration at the G7 summit questioned Beijing on covid-19, Taiwan, and human rights issues, which didn’t go well with China. On the other hand, the Swiss franc maintains its safe-haven asset status, despite dismal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. However, the inflation rate rose to near a  2 year high at 0.6% in May, and the Unemployment rate fell to 3.1%. The readings suggest robust economic recovery, which, in turn, supports the currency. As for now, traders are waiting for the release of the Swiss Producer and Import Price in a light economic calendar. USD/CHF additional levels
 

The greenback is going to be in focus this week as traders get set for the last big event before the summer period in the Federal Open Market Committe

The US dollar is in a phase of accumulation at the monthly demand area.Markets are looking to the Fed for a catalyst, one that might not come. The greenback is going to be in focus this week as traders get set for the last big event before the summer period in the Federal Open Market Committee meeting mid-week.  The meeting will likely set the market tone for the coming weeks but it may not be the volatility game-changer that traders are hoping for. Forex is at the lowest level in volatility that has been experienced in over a year: Financial and commodity markets, in general, are in a period of consolidation and low volatility.  The VIX is trading at the bottom of its monthly decline as well, printing a fresh low of 15.15 on Friday.   The markets are priced for a steady climb in economic activity and for a lower for longer Fed which has taken a chink of uncertainty out of markets and likely sending investors on the reach for carry and yield.  The Fed this week is expected to be sounding off a cautionary tone which may ultimately sap some of the support from the greenback with plenty of Fed liquidity in place for the summer.  The Fed may be a little nearer to discussing tapering, but it is unlikely that the Fed will mention as such in the statement.  There are likely no new projections so Jerome Powell’s press conference could be the only part of the event that might kick up some dust for traders to move on. Markets are of the mind that Fed tapering could start in December this year, with the first-rate hike in early 2023. However, core inflation hit a 30 year high in last week's Consumer Price Index which Powell is bound to be scrutinised over with respect to the transitory mantra coming from around the board members.  If there is not a sense of focus on tapering from Powell's presser then the search for carry could well send the greenback back on its southernly trajectory as volatility takes another leg lower. In other US data next week, be it Retail Sales and Industrial Production will fall second to the Fed. DXY technical analysis As per, Chart of the Week: US dollar in focus at demand area, forex hoping for a spike in vol, there are bullish probabilities towards 91.50 on the following chart analysis. Monthly chart Daily chart''The W-formation is a bearish pattern within this phase of accumulation. The neckline of the formation would be expected to act as support prior to the next leg higher.''     

AUD/USD pokes intraday high of 0.7711 amid a quiet Asian session, due to off in Australia and China, on Monday. Even so, a looming bearish cross-over

AUD/USD wobbles in a choppy range around 0.7700.Normal RSI, bear cross favor sellers, weekly support line restricts immediate downside.0.7800 becomes the tough nut to crack for bulls.AUD/USD pokes intraday high of 0.7711 amid a quiet Asian session, due to off in Australia and China, on Monday. Even so, a looming bearish cross-over of the 50-day SMA to 21-day SMA keeps sellers hopeful. Given the absence of oversold RSI, coupled with the bear cross, the quote may drop back towards the one-week-old support line, near 0.7700. However, any further weakness will be tested by an ascending trend line from April 01, close to 0.7660. Although the AUD/USD sellers need a strong back-up to break 0.7660 support, a clear downside will not refrain from refreshing the monthly low, currently around 0.7645. On the contrary, a corrective pullback should offer a daily closing beyond 0.7735-40 area, comprising 50-day and 21-day SMA, to recall the AUD/USD buyers. Even so, multiple upside hurdles around the 0.7800 round figure and 0.7820 could test the pair bulls ahead of directing them to May’s top of 0.7892. AUD/USD daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $70.98 and within a range of $70.69 and $71.01 at the time of writing. WTI is continuing to correct fol

Oil is firm in the open as market attention switches to the Fed. Bulls seeking to retest the multi-year highs. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $70.98 and within a range of $70.69 and $71.01 at the time of writing. WTI is continuing to correct following the sell-off from a multi-year high scored on Friday after it closed out a third straight week of gains on an improved outlook for worldwide demand.  On Friday, Brent crude futures settled at $72.69 a barrel, rising 17 cents after reaching their highest since May 2019. For the week, Brent was up 1%. WTI crude futures settled at $70.91 a barrel, up 62 cents. WTI was up 1.9% on the week. Spot ended 1% higher at $70.79, rising from a low of $69.70 to a high of $71.21. The rollout of the vaccine in North America as well as Europe is helping to restore demand.  Also, news that OPEC+ will continue to take a very cautious approach, when introducing its sequestered supply into the market, along with continued predictions that global demand is on its way back, prompted money managers to increase WTI crude length, s analysts at TD Securities explained.  ''Resulting predictions of deficits in the second half of 2021 have sent prices to their highest in some three years, which convinced traders to cover their short exposure and to increase long holdings,'' the analysts added. ''However, with WTI trading at nearly $71/b, new supply from Iran, should the nuclear deal be made and sanctions lifted, may prevent specs from taking out new aggressive long exposure, which should limit any demand optimism driven rally.'' Meanwhile, there was a focus on the monthly report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, would need to boost output to meet demand set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022. "OPEC+ needs to open the taps to keep the world oil markets adequately supplied,’’ it said, adding, ‘’It said that rising demand and countries' short-term policies were at odds with the IEA's call to end new oil, gas and coal funding. "In 2022 there is scope for the 24-member OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to ramp up crude supply by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) above its July 2021-March 2022 target," the IEA said also. In other news, the number of oil rigs operating in the US rose by six this week, according to data compiled by energy-services firm Baker Hughes for its weekly report. It was the biggest weekly increase of oil rigs in a month.
  WTI technical analysis Technically, the price is correcting the bid and on the verge of a retest of the prior highs and a potential support structure on the 4-hour time frame. The correction is also on the verge of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement that has a confluence with the structure near 70.60. This is guarding more downside 70 the figure where the 78.6% Fibo meets 4-hour structure. 

AUD/JPY prints mild gains around 84.55, up 0.07% intraday, amid Monday’s quiet Asian session. In addition to the extended weekend in Australia and Chi

AUD/JPY licks its wounds around one-week low, refreshes session top.Australia inks climate deals with Japan, Germany, eyes UK trade talks.Japan PM Suga ready for general election if opposition uses no-confidence vote.Japan’s Industrial Production for April, risk catalysts eyed.AUD/JPY prints mild gains around 84.55, up 0.07% intraday, amid Monday’s quiet Asian session. In addition to the extended weekend in Australia and China, a light calendar and an absence of surprises from the latest Group of Seven (G7) meeting seems to back the quote’s latest consolidation. Although the G7 verdict confirmed negative bias for China, Australia’s largest customer, the move was widely expected. Among the other moves, the global leaders agreed to donate more covid vaccines to the needy nations and discussed climate change, not to forget praising fiscal and monetary reliefs. “The Group of Seven rich nations promised to tackle China's growing influence, fight climate change, get more COVID-19 jabs to poor countries and keep up their economic stimulus programs at their first summit since Joe Biden became U.S. president,” said Reuters. Also contributing to the AUD/JPY uptick is the Australian drive to sign fresh trade deals with the UK, as well as firming up ties with Japan and Germany by signing to develop lower-emission technology. It’s worth noting that Japan PM Yoshihide Suga’s warning to the opposition party over calling of the no-confidence vote, as well as cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s Fed meeting, weigh on the quote’s upside momentum. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains near the record top flashed on Friday. Moving on, Japan’s April month Industrial Production, expected to remain unchanged at 15.4%, may entertain AUD/JPY traders amid an off in Australia and China. However, the risk catalysts keep the driver’s seat. Technical analysis Although the 21-day SMA breakdown favors AUD/JPY sellers, a clear break of 84.45-50 support zone, comprising 50-day SMA and an ascending trend line from late March, restricts the pair’s short-term downside.  

The GBP/JPY price trades cautiously on the first trading day of the week in the Asian session. The cross-currency pair confides in a trading band of 1

GBP/JPY remains subdued with mild gains on Monday.Cross is in uptrend since late April, looking for some corrective action.Momentum oscillator turns in favor of downside momentum.The GBP/JPY price trades cautiously on the first trading day of the week in the Asian session. The cross-currency pair confides in a trading band of 154.60-154.90. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY trades at 154.85, up 0.08% for the day. On the daily chart, the GBP/JPY is in continuous upside trading momentum from the lows of 149.06. The bulls took support near the rising trendline at the session’s low. The pair made the YTD high on May 27 at 156.07 and continued to trade lower since then on some profit taking. GBP/JPY daily chart If GBP/JPY breaks the ascending trendline, then it could bring selling opportunities for the traders. The first target in the line would be the low of June 10 at 154.13 followed by the May 27 low at 153.84. The negative divergence in the  Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator suggests impending bearish momentum in the pair. Any downtick in the MACD would intensify the selling pressure toward the 153.60 horizontal support level. Alternatively, if price sustained above the intraday high, then it could continue with the prevailing trend and remain poised to touch the previous day high of 155.21.  Next, GBP/JPY bulls would aim at the high of June 4 at 155.76 and further to retest June 1 in the vicinity of the 155.95 area. GBP/JPY additional levels  

“Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week could project interest-rate liftoff in 2023 amid faster economic growth and inflation, but they won’t signa

“Federal Reserve (Fed) officials this week could project interest-rate liftoff in 2023 amid faster economic growth and inflation, but they won’t signal scaling back bond purchases until August or September,” as per the June 04-10 Bloomberg survey of 51 economists. Key findings… More than half predict the quarterly rate-forecast “dot plot,” released after the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, will show the median of 18 officials penciling in at least one 2023 increase. The remainder sees no liftoff from near-zero rates until 2024 at the earliest, mirroring the Fed’s forecast in March. Even so, the poll respondents see no rush by the Fed to scale back monetary stimulus. Some 40% expect the Fed to take its first step toward tapering its current $120 billion in monthly bond purchases in late August. That’s when Chair Jerome Powell could give an early signal at the Fed’s Aug. 26-28 policy retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, if he follows tradition and speaks there again this year. Another 24% see that happening the following month. Economists are split on when the actual tapering announcement is most likely, with one-third predicting September and another third saying December. Also read... FOMC: Words not actions Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD tests key trend line ahead of FOMC meeting Hot Inflation is warming the seat for the June FOMC

EUR/USD defends the 1.2100 threshold while taking rounds to 1.2110 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair dropped below an ascending support line fro

EUR/USD seesaws between 50-DMA and monthly resistance, previous support.Downward sloping Momentum line, descending channel keep sellers hopeful.Bulls have a bumpy road ahead unless crossing May’s top.EUR/USD defends the 1.2100 threshold while taking rounds to 1.2110 during Monday’s Asian session. The pair dropped below an ascending support line from May 13. However, 50-day SMA (DMA) restricts the quote’s short-term downside. Although descending Momentum line backs the trend line breakdown to favor EUR/USD sellers, a clear break of the 50-DMA level of 1.2100 becomes necessary to confirm the further weakness of the quote. Also acting as a downside filter is the support line of a three-week-old falling channel, near 1.2070. In a case where the quote remains pressured below 1.2070, May 13 low around 1.2050 and 200-day SMA close to 1.1995 become the key supports to watch. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback will be probed by the previous support line near 1.2130, a break of which should direct EUR/USD buyers towards the stated channel’s resistance line, at 1.2200. Even if the currency major pair manages to cross 1.2200 on a daily closing, the previous month’s high near 1.2265 acts as an extra barrier to the north. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

New Zealand Business NZ PSI dipped from previous 61.2 to 56.1 in May

New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY): 1755.4% (April) vs -97.4%

The USD/JPY pair extends the previous session’s gains in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair is consolidating in the broader range of 109.20-109

USD/JPY kicks off the new trading week with gains on Monday.Stronger US dollar contributes to the upside momentum in the pair.Yen remains a non-performer amid mixed economic outlook.The USD/JPY pair extends the previous session’s gains in the initial Asian trading hours.
The pair is consolidating in the broader range of 109.20-109.80 since the previous two weeks. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 109.72, up 0.06% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the greenback against its six major currencies touched the one week high of 91.60 on Friday. The US 10-year Benchmark yields retreated to a fresh 3-month low of 1.42% before recouping the 1.45%.  Investors shrug off the inflationary pressure and cheered up on the signs of solid economic growth in the world’s largest economy. In the latest economic data, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment rose 86.4% in June, much above the market expectations at 84. The US posted a fiscal deficit of 132b in May as compared to $399b in May 2020.  On the other hand, the Japanese yen lacks behind the investor’s spotlight on the mixed economic state amid signs of poor economic recovery from the policymakers. Market participants are now bracing up for the Fed monetary policy meeting this week for guidance on rate hike.  In the economic docket, traders will have the opportunity to trace the Japanese Industrial Production data.
  USD/JPY additional levels  

GBP/USD begins the week mostly unchanged around 1.4110 during the initial Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the cable seems to pay a little heed t

GBP/USD holds lower ground within monthly trading range.UK government up for four-week extension to June 21 unlock deadline amid Delta variant fears.EU pushes British PM Johnson to keep his word Brexit, France ready to reset relations if he does.US dollar bids supersede UK’s strong GDP, light calendar ahead.GBP/USD begins the week mostly unchanged around 1.4110 during the initial Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the cable seems to pay a little heed to the recent price-negative headlines concerning the Brexit and an extension to the date of lifting major coronavirus (COVID-19) activity restrictions. Even so, the cable remains pressured amid broad US dollar strength and downbeat UK news. US President Joe Biden refrained from taking a tough stand on Brexit, as widely anticipated. However, the European Union (EU) policymakers cheered support from America to push the UK towards pre-agreed Brexit terms on the Northern Ireland (NI) during the latest Group of Seven (G7) meeting. Though Reuters conveyed positive from France while saying, “French President Emmanuel Macron offered on Saturday to reset relations with Britain as long as Prime Minister Boris Johnson stands by the Brexit divorce deal he signed with the European Union.” On the other hand, The Times confirmed the market speculations of a delay in the UK’s unlock amid rising Delta variants of the covid. The extension to the much-awaited June 21 expiry of the activity restrictions was initially suggested by Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser. That said, The Times cites a 49% weekly jump in the covid cases to 7,490 as the key catalysts for the latest action. It’s worth noting that the UK’s April month GDP of 2.3% couldn’t save GBP/USD from the broad US dollar strength amid safe-haven demand ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Also adding to the greenback’s strength were firmer prints of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index from the US, 86.4 in June from 82.9 previously. Looking forward, a light calendar and confirmation of the hyped news, coupled with the pre-Fed caution and an absence of traders from Australia and China, could restrict short-term GBP/USD moves. However, updates over the Aussie-UK trade deal and covid may offer intermediate moves to the cable pair. Technical analysis A broad trading range between 1.4080 and 1.4220 restricts GBP/USD moves since mid-May. However, a two-week-old ascending support line near 1.4075 adds strength to the downside support and tests the bears.  

Silver (XAG/USD) prices remain on the back foot around $27.95 amid the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the bright metal extends Friday’s U

Silver keeps Friday’s pullback from monthly resistance lines.MACD signals further weakness towards 50-SMA, 100-SMA confluence.Silver (XAG/USD) prices remain on the back foot around $27.95 amid the early Asian session on Monday. In doing so, the bright metal extends Friday’s U-turn from a downward sloping resistance line from May 18 amid the impending bearish cross of the MACD lines and receding strength of bullish histogram. However, a convergence of 50 and 100-SMA around $27.80, followed by a seven-day-old ascending support line near $27.60, could test the silver bears. It’s worth noting that a clear downside past $27.60 will make the commodity vulnerable to drop towards the monthly low of $27.00. On the contrary, the $28.00 threshold guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of the mentioned resistance line close to $28.10-15. Additionally, $28.30 and the monthly peak near $28.55 also challenge silver buyers ahead of the previous month’s top surrounding $28.75. Overall, a short-term triangle formation seems to restrict silver’s immediate moves but the bears do have an upper hand. Silver four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

The UK Times finally confirmed chatters over the delay in Britain’s final unlock amid concerns over the rising Delta variant of the coronavirus. “Bori

The UK Times finally confirmed chatters over the delay in Britain’s final unlock amid concerns over the rising Delta variant of the coronavirus. “Boris Johnson will appeal to the nation to be patient tomorrow as he announces that the June 21 easing of lockdown restrictions will be delayed by up to four weeks,” said The Times. “The prime minister will use a press conference in Downing Street tomorrow evening to set out the delay as the government attempts to hit its target of offering all adults at least one dose of a vaccination by the end of next month,” added the news. The UK recorded another 7,490 cases today, a 49 percent rise on last week, and eight deaths. Nine in ten local authority areas in England experienced a rise in coronavirus rates in the seven days to June 2, according to the news article. The much-anticipated move by the UK’s quad group of senior ministers took clues from Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, per Reuters. FX implications As most market players were aware that this news is coming, coupled with the absence of Australian and Chinese traders, reaction to the macro is limited. Even so, GBP/USD sellers attack 1.4100 by the press time of early Monday morning in Asia. Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Brexit tensions and reopening delays to hit the pound

NZD/USD extends Friday’s grim outlook to early Monday morning in Asia, despite recent wobbling around 0.7730. The kiwi pair bears the burden of a stro

NZD/USD remains depressed near six-week low after two-week downtrend.US dollar remains bid amid uncertainty over Fed’s next move, upbeat US data.Off in China, Australia signal a choppy session but cautious sentiment can back the bears.NZD/USD extends Friday’s grim outlook to early Monday morning in Asia, despite recent wobbling around 0.7730. The kiwi pair bears the burden of a strong US dollar amid the market’s rush to risk safety ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Following strong inflation figures, a better-than-forecast Michigan Consumer Confidence Index from the US, 86.4 in June from 82.9 previously, propelled the greenback versus most of its counterparts on Friday. Also favoring the US currency, also weighing on the New Zealand dollar (NZD), could be the updates from the Group of Seven (G7) meeting which criticized China. “The G7 singled out China in their communique for human rights in Xinjiang, demanded freedoms and a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong, and said a full investigation was needed into the origins of the novel coronavirus. The Group of Seven rich nations promised to tackle China's growing influence, fight climate change, get more COVID-19 jabs to poor countries and keep up their economic stimulus programs at their first summit since Joe Biden became US President,” said Reuters. It’s worth noting that upbeat prints of Business NZ Manufacturing Index, 58.6 versus 58.3, for May also couldn’t help the NZD/USD prices, neither mildly positive stock markets. Above all, indecision over the Fed’s next moves, as well as the RBNZ’s refrain from providing clear signals, keep NZD/USD on the back foot. Against this backdrop, US bond yields corrected a bit while S&P 500 refreshed record top. Moving on, New Zealand’s Business NZ PSI for May, prior 61.2, may offer intermediate moves amid a likely inactive day due to the extended weekend in major trading partners, namely Australia and China. Technical analysis NZD/USD sellers attack the key support line, stretched from October 2020 around 0.7110, following the second weekly downside. With the downward sloping RSI and Momentum indicators joining bearish MACD, the kiwi pair is likely to break the crucial support, which in turn could quickly fetch the quote to the 0.7100 round-figure and then to early April lows close to 0.7070. Meanwhile, a downward sloping trend line from late May joins 50-day and 100-day SMA around 0.7080-90 to restrict the pair’s short-term upside.  

The yellow metal dropped by over 1% vs the US dollar on Friday with XAU/USD falling from a high of $1,903.12 to a low of $1,874.54. The greenback was

Gold traders for the week ahead will be looking to the Fed and US Retail Sales in the main.  XAU/USD tests key trend line ahead of FOMC meeting Is gold really an inflation hedge? The yellow metal dropped by over 1% vs the US dollar on Friday with XAU/USD falling from a high of $1,903.12 to a low of $1,874.54.  The greenback was stronger. DXY rallied from a low of 89.9570 to a high of 90.6110 ending higher by 0.5% on the day. The move was showing its strongest weekly gain since early May as investors likely positioned for the Federal Reserve meeting this week, covering short positions and searching for carry. Meanwhile, forex volatility remains at yearly lows: The dollar has been recently plagued by Federal Reserve's assertion that high inflation would be temporary. However, economists see the central bank announcing in August or September a strategy for reducing its massive bond-buying program which is underpinning the greenback to some extent. For the FOMC event, caution should prevail and the dollar may ultimately lose some support in highly low volatility which tends to benefit the carry trade. However, this too could be challenging for gold as investors search for yield with short covering now also running out of steam.  ''Gold's failure to break $1900/oz despite the surprise non-farm payrolls and CPI inflation prints should catalyze some CTA selling as upside momentum wanes,'' analysts at TD Securities argued. ''At the same time, weak price action in breakeven inflation could be pointing to waning inflation-hedging flows, while physical demand has notably weakened amid India's battle against Covid and with a microstructure pointing to weak Chinese physical demand. In this context, we expect the modest downside flow from CTAs to catalyze a pullback in the yellow metal.'' Gold technical analysis Gold is bearish for the open while below a 4-hour 10/20 EMA bearish crossover. Meanwhile, the price is on track to completing a daily M-formation as it challenges the daily 20 EMA. There is a confluence of the prior resistance from back in late January near $1,870. On a test of the area, the upside will be vulnerable to a correction to the prior lows of 1,884/88 in a mean reversion of the bearish impulse. 
 
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