ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

อังคาร, สิงหาคม 9, 2022

AUD/JPY is correcting following the two-day rally. The following illustrates the prospects of a reversion into the 92.50 area based upon a reversion p

AUD/JPY bears are on the prowl but the bulls are moving in. The price action could be dictated by the reversion patterns across multi time frames. AUD/JPY is correcting following the two-day rally. The following illustrates the prospects of a reversion into the 92.50 area based upon a reversion pattern that is taking shape on the daily candlesticks. AUD/JPY daily chart As illustrated above, we have a W-formation. The price is headed to the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which is not quite as significant as the cluster of the 38.2%, 50% mean reversion and the golden 61.8% below there: AUD/JPY H1 chart The hourly chart's M-formation is just as compelling: The price would be expected to now move into the neckline which could act as a resistance that would encourage the bears in at a discount. 

USD/CHF remains depressed around 0.9550 amid a sluggish Asian session on Tuesday. Even so, the sellers remain hopeful while tracing a downside break o

USD/CHF fades corrective pullback from one-week bottom marked the previous day.Sustained break of short-term ascending trend line, bearish MACD signals favor sellers.Bulls need validation from the 200-SMA to retake control.USD/CHF remains depressed around 0.9550 amid a sluggish Asian session on Tuesday. Even so, the sellers remain hopeful while tracing a downside break of a one-week-old ascending trend line. In addition to the weekly support break, the bearish MACD signals and the pair’s sustained trading below the 200-SMA also favor USD/CHF sellers. That said, the pair is all set to challenge the yearly low surrounding 0.9470, with the 0.9500 threshold likely acting as an intermediate halt. In a case where USD/CHF bears dominate past 0.9470, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of July 14 to August 03 moves, near 0.9390, will be in focus. Alternatively, the previous support line from August 02, close to 0.9565 at the latest, guards the quote’s recovery moves. However, major attention will be given to the 200-SMA level of 0.9650 as a successful break above the same could enable USD/CHF bulls to aim for the late July swing high around 0.9740. Overall, USD/CHF is likely to remain on the bear’s radar despite the latest inaction. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions came in at 20, above forecasts (15) in July

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence meets expectations (7) in July

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions in line with forecasts (15) in July

USD/CAD licks its wounds as it renews daily tops near 1.2870 while paring the biggest loss since July 19 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The loonie pa

USD/CAD renews intraday high to consolidate the biggest daily loss in three weeks.Geopolitical fears, US dollar retreat enabled oil’s rebound from multi-day low.Sluggish session, light calendar allows traders to pare recent moves.US CPI for July is the key, second-tier data, risk catalysts may entertain intraday traders.USD/CAD licks its wounds as it renews daily tops near 1.2870 while paring the biggest loss since July 19 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The loonie pair dropped the most in three weeks the previous as a recovery in prices of Canada’s main export, WTI crude oil, joined a pullback in the US dollar. Also exerting downside pressure on the USD/CAD prices was the cautious optimism in the markets ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, up for publishing on Wednesday. That said, the WTI crude oil rose by near 2.0% to $89.70 the previous day, around $90.20 by the press time. The black gold prices might have cheered firmer China trade numbers and cautious optimism in the markets to recover while ignoring hopes of more output from Iran. On the other hand, US Dollar Index (DXY) traced Treasury yields to consolidate Friday’s heavy gains that offered the greenback gauge the first weekly positive in three. That said, the DXY registered a 0.19% daily loss to 106.37 by the end of Monday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly seven basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up the previous day. It’s worth noting that the market’s previous risk-on mood appears to have faded of late as US President Joe Biden raised concerns over China’s actions near the Taiwan border. On the same line were fears of the Fed’s aggression and economic slowdown.  Considering Friday’s strong US jobs report, versus mixed employment data from Canada, the Fed funds futures price in a 69% chance of another 75 bps rate hike in September, per Reuters. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Future trim early Asian session gains around 4,145 by the press time. Moving on, the US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2) could entertain USD/JPY traders. Forecasts suggest that the US Nonfarm Productivity could improve to -4.6% from -7.3% prior while Unit Labor Costs may ease to 9.5% versus 12.6% previous readings. Also read: US CPI Preview: It is the hard core that counts, five scenarios for critical inflation data Technical analysis An impending bull cross on the MACD joins steady RSI (14) to support the USD/CAD buyers unless the quote breaks an upward sloping trend line from early June, close to 1.2835. That said, recovery remains limited as the five-week-old horizontal area near 1.2930-35 challenges the upside momentum.  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7584 vs. the last close of 6.7508. About the fix China maintains stri

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7584 vs. the last close of 6.7508. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

While NZD/USD recovered from Friday's collapse, it remains bound by key resistance and support on the daily chart and has not managed to break the sea

NZD/USD bulls eye 0.6550 resistance and between 0.6645 and 0.6720 higher up. The bears target a break below 0.6190. While NZD/USD recovered from Friday's collapse, it remains bound by key resistance and support on the daily chart and has not managed to break the seal of 0.63 the figure so far this week. The following illustrates the sideways range and prospects of breaks of key structure levels.  NZD/USD Price Analysis The bulls need to get above 0.6350 and the bears below 0.6190. 0.6280, meanwhile guards the upside of that range following the reversion to the neckline of the M-formation. To the upside, in a full-on breakout of the trendline resistance that the price is accumulating outside of, there is an area of price imbalance that could well be targetted once 0.6550 resistance is overcome. That area is between 0.6645 and 0.6720. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) has slowed down its upside momentum after printing a high above $1,790.00 in the Asian session. The upside momentum has not been

Gold price is advancing towards $1,800 as the US CPI is seen lower at 8.7%.The inflation rate is required to display a series of downward shifts to claim exhaustion.Gold price as defended the 20-EMA while the 50-EMA has remained untouched in a corrective move.Gold price (XAU/USD) has slowed down its upside momentum after printing a high above $1,790.00 in the Asian session. The upside momentum has not been exhausted yet and the precious metal is balancing in a higher market profile after a sheer rally. The bright metal is advancing towards the psychological resistance of $1,800.00 on lower estimates for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). As per the market consensus, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to trim to 8.7% from the prior release of 9.1%. A drop by 40 basis points in the consensus is backed by declining oil prices over the past few weeks. The black gold lost its mojo on accelerating recession fears and trimming supply worries. This may delight the Federal Reserve (Fed) to head a little soft this time on interest rates. Investors should be aware of the fact that a one-time decline in the price pressures doesn’t warrant that the laborious job for the Federal Reserve (Fed) is over. The inflation rate is required to display a series of downward shifts to claim that the price pressures have exhausted. Gold technical analysis The gold prices have rebounded sharply after sensing bids around the lower portion of the Rising Channel formed on a four-hour scale. The upper portion of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from July 22 high at $1,739.37 while the lower portion is plotted from July 27 low at $1,711.55. The gold bulls have defended the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,775.50. While, the 50-EMA at $1,767.11 has remained untouched despite a corrective move, which indicates that the short-term trend is extremely bullish. Adding to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has attempted a break above 60.00 and an establishment above the same will strengthen the gold bulls further. Gold four-hour chart  

USD/JPY struggles for clear directions, after beginning the week on a mildly negative footing, as it bounces off an intraday low near 134.75 during th

USD/JPY remains depressed after rising to one-week high on Friday, mildly offered of late.Yields pare post-NFP gains as traders brace for Wednesday’s US CPI.Fears surrounding Russia, Taiwan join mixed Japan data to also cap the upside.Japan Machine Tool Orders, second-tier US employment data will decorate the calendar.USD/JPY struggles for clear directions, after beginning the week on a mildly negative footing, as it bounces off an intraday low near 134.75 during the initial hours of Tuesday’s Tokyo open. The yen pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the sluggish markets, a light calendar in Asia and the cautious mood ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, up for publishing on Wednesday. Also challenging the USD/JPY moves are the recently sidelined US Treasury yields, after the previous day’s fall. That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly seven basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up on Friday. The pullback in yields can be attributed to the market’s positioning ahead of the key US inflation data. Even so, the Fed funds futures price in 69% chance of another 75 bps rate hike in September, per Reuters, which in turn keeps the USD/JPY bulls hopeful. It should be noted that the recent increase in the US inflation expectations, per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, also underpins the cautious optimism of the USD/JPY buyers. It should be noted that Japan’s first current account deficit in five months joined the downbeat Trade Balance for June to weigh on the USD/JPY prices. Amid these plays, Wall Street began Monday’s trading on a firmer footing before closing mixed whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time. Given the market’s inaction and a light calendar, USD/JPY prices may witness inaction ahead of Japan’s Machine Tool Orders for July, prior 17.1%. Following that, the US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2) could entertain USD/JPY traders. Forecasts suggest that the US Nonfarm Productivity could improve to -4.6% from -7.3% prior while Unit Labor Costs may ease to 9.5% versus 12.6% previous readings. Above all, chatters surrounding China, Taiwan and the US CPI, as well as the Fed’s rate hike in September, will be important to track for clear directions. Also read: US CPI Preview: It is the hard core that counts, five scenarios for critical inflation data Technical analysis USD/JPY sellers await a clear downside break of the weekly support line, around 133.90 by the press time, to retake control. On the contrary, the 50-DMA  and a three-week-old resistance line, respectively around 135.15 and 135.50, restrict the short-term upside of the pair. It’s worth noting that the pair buyers remain hopeful until the quote stays beyond the 100-DMA support of 131.00.  

AUD/USD remains idle around d 0.7000 as traders await fresh signals during Tuesday’s Asian session, after the upbeat start of the week. In doing so, t

AUD/USD remains sidelined between 50-DMA and downward sloping resistance line from late April.Sustained break of four-month-old previous resistance joins firmer RSI to keep buyers hopeful.Successful trading beyond 200-DMA becomes necessary to reverse the downtrend from April.AUD/USD remains idle around d 0.7000 as traders await fresh signals during Tuesday’s Asian session, after the upbeat start of the week. In doing so, the Aussie pair seesaws between the 50-DMA and the downward sloping resistance line from late April. Given the firmer RSI and the lack of bearish MACD signals, the recent upside momentum of the pair is likely to extend. However, a daily closing beyond the aforementioned resistance line, at 0.7025 by the press time, appears necessary for the AUD/USD bulls to keep reins. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July downturn and the 200-DMA, respectively near 0.7060 and 0.7125 will gain the market’s attention. On the flip side, a break of the 50-DMA support near 0.6880 isn’t an open invitation to the AUD/USD bears as the resistance-turned-support from early April, at 0.6855 at the latest, will challenge the downside moves. In a case where the AUD/USD prices remain weak past 0.6885, the odds of witnessing a south-run towards the yearly low marked in July around 0.6680 can’t be ruled out. AUD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The US dollar index (DXY) is expected to conclude its pullback move sooner and may continue its upside journey if it manages to surpass the critical h

Pre-anxiety for Wednesday’s US CPI is supporting the DXY bulls.Softer oil prices have trimmed the consensus for the US Inflation rate.Higher US NFP has delighted the Fed for handling a higher inflation rate.The US dollar index (DXY) is expected to conclude its pullback move sooner and may continue its upside journey if it manages to surpass the critical hurdle of 106.50 confidently. On Monday, the asset was corrected after printing a high of 106.45. The DXY defended the crucial support of 106.000 and picked bids significantly. Lower consensus for US CPI Considering the preliminary estimates for US Inflation, the price rise index will slip to 8.7% from the former figure of 9.1%. July’s softer oil prices are responsible for a downward shift in inflation consensus. The investing community is aware of the fact that the volatile oil prices were driving the price rise index higher. Now, downbeat oil prices are clearly diminishing the inflation forecasts Whereas the core CPI that doesn’t inculcate volatile oil and food products is expected to elevate to 6.1% from the prior release of 5.9%. Winter may over for the Fed The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) remained upbeat last week despite lower investment by the US corporate players due to costly dollars after higher borrowing rates and a halt in the recruitment process by the same. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers were worried that the unavailability of support from the US labor data will escalate troubles in an already troublesome job. Now, the upbeat labor data along with exhaustion signals in the inflation rate will trim the concerns about handling a higher inflation rate.  

The Securities Daily reported on an interview with In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Financial an

The Securities Daily reported on an interview with In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Financial and Information Research Institute Wu Chaoming believes that while there is a low possibility of lowering the reserve ratio and interest rate in the future due to the influence of factors such as the Sino-US interest rate gap that will remain inverted for a long time, the pressure of domestic price stabilization and the lack of demand restricting the effect of monetary easing.  "Considering that inflation pressure is likely to pick up in the third and fourth quarters, and other major economies may continue to maintain the basic policy stance of raising interest rates, the possibility of a comprehensive rate cut and RRR cut in the second half of the year is low, but the loan market quoted rate (LPR) remains unchanged. There may be asymmetric downward adjustments, and the trend of 'quantity easing and price parity' with loose funds and a steady decline in real loan interest rates can be expected." Pang Ming, Chief Economist and Head of Research Department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China said. 

AUD/NZD is flat in the Tokyo open and has ranged between 1.1091 and 1.1115 on the day so far following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation exp

AUD/NZD bounded by key daily swing lows, price imbalance between 1.1080 and 1.1091 eyed. RBNZ is expected to hike by 50bps at the next meeting. AUD/NZD is flat in the Tokyo open and has ranged between 1.1091 and 1.1115 on the day so far following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's inflation expectations at the start of the week and solid Chinese data.  Analysts at Westpac explained that the easing in inflation expectations will leave the RBNZ feeling more comfortable that the risks of high inflation becoming embedded in the economy are easing off. ''That is particularly important given the current multi-decade high in actual inflation and related risks of a wage-price spiral,'' the analysts said. However, the analysts also explained that the survey ''still points to strong inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy and reinforces the case for rate rises. We’re forecasting another 50bp rise at next week’s RBNZ policy meeting.'' Meanwhile, the Kiwi recovered and has fully erased snap losses seen in the wake of strong US Nonfarm Payrolls data from Frida. US bond yields have moderated, enabling risk to recover and resulting in softness in the greenback. Analysts at ANZ Bank said that the latest bout of NZD strength looks to be on the back of the stronger AUD, which is back on the front foot as markets digest solid Chinese trade data. ''Looking ahead, it seems a stretch to expect the NZD to go too far ahead of key US July Consumer Price data out tomorrow night. This data is set to be complicated as while we may see a moderation in headline annual inflation, monthly core readings are expected to remain elevated, and this is the Fed (and US bond market’s) real issue. Whether that sees a return of USD strength will depend on the detail.'' AUD/NZD technical analysis The price is bounded by key daily swing lows and highs but the W-formation is a meanwhile reversion pattern that would be expected to full the price into the neckline for a restest and in order to mitigate, at least in part, the price imbalance between 1.1080 and 1.1091.

EUR/USD seesaws around 1.0200, after retreating from 1.0221, as traders seek fresh clues during Tuesday’s Asian session. The major currency pair began

EUR/USD remains sidelined after trimming the week-start gains.Italian politics, German gas crisis and US-China tussles over Taiwan seem to challenge bulls.Firmer EU Sentiment data, downbeat yields restrict downside momentum.Second-tier employment-related US data will join risk catalysts to direct short-term moves.EUR/USD seesaws around 1.0200, after retreating from 1.0221, as traders seek fresh clues during Tuesday’s Asian session. The major currency pair began the week on a positive front before paring some of the gains by the end of Monday. However, a lack of major data/events, as well as cautious sentiment ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, up for publishing on Wednesday, seems to restrict the latest moves. Firmer prints of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index join a retreat of the US Treasury yields to portray the EUR/USD gains the previous day. That said, the key sentiment gauge Index improved to -25.2 for August versus -24.7 expected and -26.4 prior. Details suggest that the current situation in the eurozone recovered from the lowest since March 2021, to -16.3 versus -16.5 marked in the previous month. An expectations index, however, remains near the lowest since December 2008 while improving a bit to -33.8 at the latest. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) registered a 0.19% daily loss to 106.37. Elsewhere, jitters in Italian politics due to the centrist Azione’s pullback from the newly formed alliance ahead of the September elections appear to have exerted downside pressure on the Euro. “Having agreed to form an alliance with the Democratic Party and the +Europe party just last week, the centrist Azione has now pulled out with party head Carlo Calendar starting that "the pieces just didn't fit together". The alliance was formed in an attempt to prevent a more right-wing government coming to power following the September 25 vote,” said Reuters while saying the Market News Publishing US. It should be noted that US President Joe Biden’s dislike for China’s aggression towards recapturing Taiwan and criticism of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei appeared to have also restricted the EUR/USD gains the previous day. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly seven basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up the previous day. Further, Wall Street began Monday’s trading on a firmer footing before closing mixed whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains by the press time. Looking forward, the US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2) could entertain EUR/USD traders. Forecasts suggest that the US Nonfarm Productivity could improve to -4.6% from -7.3% prior while Unit Labor Costs may ease to 9.5% versus 12.6% previous readings. Other than that, headlines surrounding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for clear directions. Also read: US CPI Preview: It is the hard core that counts, five scenarios for critical inflation data Technical analysis EUR/USD remains sidelined between the 21-DMA level of 1.0170 and a two-month-old resistance line near 1.0280.  

The EUR/GBP pair is struggling to cross the immediate hurdle of 0.8440 in the early Tokyo session. The asset is broadly auctioning in a range of 0.841

EUR/GBP is facing hurdles around 0.8440 as investors await Wednesday’s Germany HICP.The German inflation data is likely to remain unchanged at 8.5% annually.A vulnerable UK GDP data may weaken the pound bulls ahead.The EUR/GBP pair is struggling to cross the immediate hurdle of 0.8440 in the early Tokyo session. The asset is broadly auctioning in a range of 0.8410-0.8452 for the past three trading sessions as investors have shifted their focus towards the Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, which will release on Wednesday. The cross has continued its four-day winning streak on Tuesday and is likely to extend gains ahead. A preliminary estimate for the Germany HICP is 8.5%, similar to its prior close on an annual basis. Also, the monthly inflation data is seen unchanged at 0.8%. It is worth noting that Germany is a core member of the European Union (EU) and its inflation data holds significant importance for the eurozone. No doubt, the Germany HICP is displaying some peak signals, however, this doesn't warrant that the European Central Bank (ECB) won’t go for a rate hike announcement. The ECB has been slowest in elevating interest rates among its Western peers due to regional imbalance after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, the odds of a rate hike are sky-rocketing as the inflation rate is beyond the desired rate. On the pound front, the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) holds significant importance. The economic data is expected to plummet to 2.8% vs. 8.7% reported earlier on an annual basis. Apart from that, the UK Office for National Statistics will also report the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data and their estimates don’t seem lucrative at all.      

GBP/USD retreats to 1.2085 after a mildly positive start to the week, sidelined during Tuesday’s initial Asian session. In doing so, the Cable pair po

GBP/USD fades the previous day’s corrective pullback but 200-SMA defends buyers.38.2% Fibonacci retracement level adds to the downside filters.Bulls to remain cautious unless crossing 1.2175 hurdle.GBP/USD retreats to 1.2085 after a mildly positive start to the week, sidelined during Tuesday’s initial Asian session. In doing so, the Cable pair pokes the 200-SMA support while fading the bounce off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 16 to July 14 downturn. Given the bearish MACD signals and the recently downward sloping RSI (14), the GBP/USD pair is likely to remain pressured. However, the aforementioned key SMA and the Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively neat 1.2060 and 1.2000, will be tough nuts to crack for the bears before retaking control. Following that, a downward trajectory towards the multi-month low marked in July, around 1.1760, can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, a convergence of the one-week-old descending trend line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.2160 could restrict the short-term recovery of the GBP/USD pair. Even if the Cable pair rises past 1.2160, the buyers need validation from the previous support line from mid-July, around 1.2175 to remain on the throne. To sum up, GBP/USD remains on the seller’s radar but the downside remains sluggish. GBP/USD: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) above forecasts (2.8%) in July: Actual (3.4%)

Silver price (XAG/USD) steadies around $20.70 during Tuesday’s initial Asian session, after refreshing the monthly high the previous day. In doing so,

Silver price (XAG/USD) steadies around $20.70 during Tuesday’s initial Asian session, after refreshing the monthly high the previous day. In doing so, the bright metal tracks the cautious optimism in the options market as bulls retreat of late. That said, the one-month risk reversal (RR) of silver prices, the difference between the call options and the put options, appear to retreat of late. The weekly RR prints 0.0000 figures after easing to 0.420 in the last week, from 0.950. It’s worth noting that the daily options market gauge remains indecisive at 0.000 by the press time. Given the receding bullish bias in the options market, coupled with the anxiety ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, up for publishing on Wednesday, XAG/USD prices may find it difficult to extend the latest run-up. Also read: Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD jumps back above $20.00, 50 DMA/50% Fibo. holds the key

WTI crude oil prices struggle to extend the latest rebound at around $90.00 during Tuesday’s initial Asian session. The black gold began the week on a

WTI grinds higher after bouncing off the key Fibonacci retracement support.Sluggish RSI, MACD challenge further upside momentum but 61.8% golden ratio probes bears.Convergence of 200-DMA, two-month-old resistance line and 50% Fibonacci retracement level restricts short-term upside.WTI crude oil prices struggle to extend the latest rebound at around $90.00 during Tuesday’s initial Asian session. The black gold began the week on a positive side while extending Friday’s recovery from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of December 2021 to the March 2022 upside, near $86.90. However, downbeat RSI and sluggish MACD seem to challenge the WTI crude oil’s further recovery, which in turn restricts the quote’s latest moves below $90.00. It’s worth noting that the commodity’s further upside past the $90.00 immediate hurdle needs validation from the $94.30-50 resistance area comprising the 50-DMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a downward sloping trend line from early July. During the quote’s pullback, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $86.90 could restrict immediate downside ahead of the late January swing low around $81.70. Should WTI price remain weak past $81.70, the $80.00 round figure and early December 2021 swing high around $73.70 should lure the oil bears. WTI: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The AUD/JPY pair has picked bids around 94.20 after a soft decline from 94.37 in the early Asian session. Broadly, the cross has turned sideways in a

A symmetrical triangle formation after a juggernaut rally hints continuation of an upside.Overlapping 50-EMA and asset’s price indicates short-term consolidation ahead.Aussie bulls will recapture a seven-year high at 96.88 on triangle breakout.The AUD/JPY pair has picked bids around 94.20 after a soft decline from 94.37 in the early Asian session. Broadly, the cross has turned sideways in a 93.97-94.42 range after a vertical upside move on Monday. Aussie bulls have not exhausted yet and are expected to extend their gains further. On a daily chart, the asset is oscillating in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern that signals an extreme slippage in the standard deviation. The upward-sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from May 12 low at 87.31 while the downward-sloping trendline is plotted from June 8 high at 96.88. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.35 is overlapping with the asset prices, which signals a consolidation ahead. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range. The prolonged upside bias is hinting for the continuation of an upside after a symmetrical breakout. And, a break above 60.00 will trigger the upside momentum. Should the asset oversteps July 27 high at 95.70, the aussie bulls will drive the risk barometer towards a seven-year high at 96.88. A breach of the latter will send the cross towards May 2015 high at 97.30. On the flip side, a decisive drop below Friday’s low at 92.24 will drag the asset towards Wednesday’s low at 91.72, followed by August low at 90.52. AUD/JPY daily chart  

NZD/USD bulls struggle amid mixed retail sales data at home, as well as an absence of major catalysts, after rising the most in three weeks the previo

NZD/USD remains sidelined after rising the most in three weeks the previous day.New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales improved MoM, dropped on YoY during July.Softer US Treasury yields weighed DXY, China trade numbers favored Antipodeans.Kiwi bears ignored softer prints of Q3 RBNZ Inflation Expectations with eyes on US CPI for July.NZD/USD bulls struggle amid mixed retail sales data at home, as well as an absence of major catalysts, after rising the most in three weeks the previous day. That said, the Kiwi pair seesaws around 0.6280-85 during the initial hour of Tuesday’s Asian session. New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales for July rose to -0.2% MoM versus -1.3% market forecasts and downwardly revised 0.0% prior. The yearly figure, however, slumped to -0.5% versus 6.9% expected and 1.9% prior. It’s worth noting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) third quarter (Q3) Inflation Expectations eased to 3.07% versus 3.29% prior. Even so, the Kiwi pair began the key week comprising the US inflation on a front foot amid a softer US dollar, as well as hopes of economic recovery from China. That said, US Dollar Index (DXY) traced Treasury yields to consolidate Friday’s heavy gains that offered the greenback gauge the first weekly positive in three. That said, the DXY registered a 0.19% daily loss to 106.37 by the end of Monday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly seven basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up the previous day. On the other hand, optimism surrounding China could be witnessed in the July month trade numbers from the dragon nation, as well as the market’s lack of interest in the Sino-American tussles over Taiwan. The dragon nation continues its military drills near the Taiwan border but the US recently signaled no major escalation in the geopolitical risks likely from Beijing. Elsewhere, China’s trade numbers for July. The headline Trade Balance rose to $101.26B versus $90B forecasts and $97.94B. Further details suggest that Exports increased by 18% compared to 15% expected and 17.9% prior whereas the Imports eased to 2.3% compared to 3.7% expected and 1.0% prior. Amid these plays, Wall Street began Monday’s trading on a firmer footing before closing mixed, which in turn should have challenged the NZD/USD buyers amid hawkish Fed bets. Given the recently cautious mood in the market, the Kiwi pair may remain sidelined and can witness a pullback should the scheduled second-tier US job numbers print strong outcomes. Forecasts suggest that the second quarter (Q2) US Nonfarm Productivity could improve to -4.6% from -7.3% prior while Unit Labor Costs may ease to 9.5% during the stated period versus 12.6% in previous readings. Furthermore, headlines surrounding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for clear directions. Technical analysis Although 20-DMA puts a floor under the short-term NZD/USD downside around 0.6240, a downward sloping resistance line from June 16, close to 0.6335-40 challenges the pair buyers.  

As per the start of the week's analysis, USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bears lurking with eyes on a deeper correction, USD/CAD indeed fell into the hands of

USD/CAD is trapped between key hourly support and resistance.USD/CAD breakout prospects diminished with US CPI ahead.As per the start of the week's analysis, USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bears lurking with eyes on a deeper correction, USD/CAD indeed fell into the hands of the bears as the following illustrates: USD/CAD prior analysis For the hourly time frame, it was explained that ''a break to the downside opens the probability of a move into the area of price imbalance. 1.2880 is a potentially key structure that if broken may give way to a deeper correction towards 1.2820 and 1.2770.'' (USD/CAD H1 chart, above, daily chart below) It was explained that ''the daily chart's W-formation is a bearish feature with price anticipated to correct the daily bullish impulse towards the neckline. '' USD/CAD live chart As illustrated, the price has indeed dropped, respecting the prior analysis of the W-formation and the subsequent pull into the neckline. As for the 1-hour chart, the price fell out of the coil and besides a brief spell of price discovery in the 1.2880s, the bears stayed in control to test below 1.2850: The price is coiling again and a break of the corrective highs will likely see the bulls mitigate the price imbalance above. However, resistance could hold and see the price reverse in a continuation of the downside and in an extension of the prior bearish impulse to test towards 1.2820 and potentially beyond with daily structure eyed at 1.2767. Alternatively, we could simply see the price bounded between 1.2900 and 1.2820 as we head into key US inflation data mid-week:

United Kingdom BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 1.6% above expectations (-8.4%) in July

The GBP/JPS is almost flat as Tuesday’s Asian Pacific session begins, seesawing around the 100-day EMA after hitting the weekly high at 163.84 on Mond

The GBP/JPY daily chart portrays the pair as neutral-to-downwards, pierce of 163.00, to send the pair towards the 163.10s area.From a short-term perspective, the GBP/JPY is range bound, but the higher-time frame could lean the pair neutral-to-downwards.The GBP/JPS is almost flat as Tuesday’s Asian Pacific session begins, seesawing around the 100-day EMA after hitting the weekly high at 163.84 on Monday. At the time of writing, the GBP/JPY is trading at 163.06, amid a risk-off mood as shown by Asian futures preparing to open lower.GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY daily chart shows the pound remains heavy, albeit finishing Monday’s session with gains. Nevertheless, buyers’ inability to breach the 20-day EMA at 136.64 opened the door for sellers, who stepped in, sending the cross-currency diving towards the 163.00 figure. All that said, the pair is neutral-to-bearish biased. Therefore, the GBP/JPY’s first support would be the August 8 low at 162.56. Break below will expose the August 5 low at 161.11, followed by the August 2 swing low at 159.44. Otherwise, if buyers reclaim the 20-day EMA at 163.64, that would open the door for a test of the 50-day EMA at 164.21. GBP/JPY Daily chart The cross-currency pair is neutral biased from a short-term perspective, capped by the August 5 low and the August 8 high, at 161.11-163.84, respectively. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is almost flat, just above the 50-midline, but directionless. Therefore, a break above 163.84 could send the pair towards the August 4 high at 163.97, which, once cleared, could open the door for further gains. On the flip side, the GBP/JPY first support would be a busy support area, with the intersection of the 50, 200, and 100-hour EMAs around the 162.49-162.65. Once cleared, the next support would be the S2 pivot point at 161.86, followed by the S3 daily pivot at 161.16. GBP/JPY Hourly chartGBP/JPY Key Technical Levels 

The USD/CHF pair has turned sideways after catching bids around 0.9550 in the early Tokyo session. On Monday, the asset defended the two-day support o

USD/CHF is eyeing the 0.9550 figure, critical support ahead of the US Inflation.Declining oil prices are responsible for lower consensus for US CPI.SNB’s hawkish stance is still fresh despite the unchanged inflation rate at 3.5% released last week.The USD/CHF pair has turned sideways after catching bids around 0.9550 in the early Tokyo session. On Monday, the asset defended the two-day support of 0.9540 and a responsive buying action pushed the asset higher. The major is likely to display action as per the positions adjusting ahead of the US Inflation. As per the market consensus, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to trim to 8.7% from the prior release of 9.1%. A drop by 40 basis points in the consensus is backed by declining oil prices over the past few weeks. The black gold lost its mojo on accelerating recession fears and trimming supply worries. This may delight the Federal Reserve (Fed) to head a little soft this time on interest rates. Apart from that, the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls have shrugged off higher unemployment fears. The job additions in the labor market at 528k were more than doubled the expectations of 250k despite a halt in the recruitment process by various US corporate players. Well, the economic condition is not fixed yet as the US CPI is still to release. Also, a continuous slowdown in the price pressures is crucial to determine a decline in the price rise index. Therefore, a wait-and-watch game will continue to persist. On the Swiss franc front, the unchanged inflation rate released last week at 3.5% doesn’t trim the odds of a rate hike by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) ahead, but hawkish guidance could get mild. A light Swiss economic calendar this week will remain more dependent on the greenback.  

US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rose for the second consecutive

US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year breakeven inflation rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, rose for the second consecutive day by the end of Monday’s North American session. That said, the inflation gauge recently flashed the 2.48% mark, reversing the previous week’s losses of late. The recovery in the long-term inflation expectations should ideally help the US dollar as traders brace for this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, up for publishing on Wednesday. Also likely to have underpinned the data could be the recently firmer US jobs report for July and the hawkish Fedspeak. On Friday, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose to 528K versus 250K expected and 398K upwardly revised prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate also inched lower to 3.5% compared to 3.6% expected and previous readings. Following the data, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during the weekend that the Fed is far from done in combating inflation. The policymaker also added, “50 bps increase is definitely in play. We need to keep an open mind.” On the same line was Fed Governor Michelle Bowman who said, “Fed should consider more 75 basis-point interest rate hikes at coming meetings in order to bring high inflation back down to the central bank's goal.” It’s worth noting, however, that a lack of major data/events offered a sluggish start to the key week. Also read: Forex Today: Adjusting positions ahead of US inflation figures

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (-1.3%) in July: Actual (-0.2%)

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (6.9%) in July: Actual (-0.5%)

Gold price (XAU/USD) cheered US dollar pullback and softer yields to print the latest gains, before taking rounds to $1,790 during the initial Asian s

Gold price bounced off 13-day-old support line amid softer US dollar.Market’s preparations for US inflation, pullback in yields and a light calendar favored XAU/USD buyers.Second-tier US jobs numbers, risk catalysts can entertain bulls ahead of US CPI for July.Gold price (XAU/USD) cheered US dollar pullback and softer yields to print the latest gains, before taking rounds to $1,790 during the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The metal’s upward trajectory also took clues from equities as the key began the week’s trading on a positive side but retreated by the end of the day. US Dollar Index (DXY) traced Treasury yields to consolidate Friday’s heavy gains that offered the greenback gauge the first weekly positive in three. That said, the DXY registered a 0.19% daily loss to 106.37 by the end of Monday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly seven basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up the previous day. Also favoring the gold buyers could the market’s lack of attention to the US-China tussles over Taiwan and China’s solid trade numbers for July. That said, the dragon nation continues its military drills near the Taiwan border but the US recently signaled no major escalation in the geopolitical risks likely from Beijing. Elsewhere, China’s trade numbers for July. The headline Trade Balance rose to $101.26B versus $90B forecasts and $97.94B. Further details suggest that Exports increased by 18% compared to 15% expected and 17.9% prior whereas the Imports eased to 2.3% compared to 3.7% expected and 1.0% prior. It’s worth noting, however, that escalating hawkish Fed bets and the Fed policymakers’ favor for the aggressive rate hikes challenged the XAU/USD bulls. That said, the interest rate futures signaled 73% chances of the Fed’s 75 bps rate hike in September following the strong US jobs report for July. The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose to 528K versus 250K expected and 398K upwardly revised prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate also inched lower to 3.5% compared to 3.6% expected and previous readings. After the data, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during the weekend that the Fed is far from done in combating inflation. The policymaker also added, “50 bps increase is definitely in play. We need to keep an open mind.” On the same line was Fed Governor Michelle Bowman who said, “Fed should consider more 75 basis-point interest rate hikes at coming meetings in order to bring high inflation back down to the central bank's goal.” Looking forward, the US dollar weakness may favor gold buyers, together with the technical details mentioned below. Also important to watch will be the US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2). Forecasts suggest that the US Nonfarm Productivity coooulddd improve to -4.6% from -7.3% prior while Unit Labor Costs may ease to 9.5% versus 12.6% previous readings. Furthermore, headlines surrounding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for clear directions. Technical analysis Gold price not only bounced off a short-term key support line but also crossed the 50-DMA on a daily closing for the first time since late April. The upside move takes clues from the firmer RSI (14), not overbought, as well as bullish MACD signals to keep buyers hopeful. That said, the XAU/USD buyers are ready to renew the monthly high near the $1,800 threshold before poking the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April-July fall, close to $1,802. However, a downward sloping resistance line from mid-June, close to $1,827, could challenge the gold bulls afterward. Meanwhile, the 50-DMA and the aforementioned support line, respectively near $1,786 and $1,780, could restrict the metal’s short-term downside. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 21-DMA, around $1,755 and $1,741 in that order, should gain the XAU/USD sellers’ attention. Overall, gold price is ready to extend the latest gains towards the 1.5-month-old resistance line. Gold: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The EUR/USD pair has displayed a gradual decline and has slipped to near 1.0193 after failing to surpass the critical hurdle of 1.0220 in the New York

Volatility contraction escalates on a follow-up Diamond after a consolidation.Overlapping 50-EMA with asset prices is hinting at a sideways move ahead.The shared currency bulls are continuously facing barricades around 1.0200.The EUR/USD pair has displayed a gradual decline and has slipped to near 1.0193 after failing to surpass the critical hurdle of 1.0220 in the New York session. On a broader note, the asset is advancing modestly after printing a low of 1.0146 last week. The asset is facing barricades in establishing above the psychological resistance of 1.0200 A formation of a Diamond pattern after a prolonged consolidation indicates that the asset is still inside the woods and will take sufficient time to conclude its volatility contraction. Usually, a breakout of a volatility contraction in an asset is followed by volumes and wide-range ticks. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0193 is overlapping with the asset prices, which signals a consolidation ahead. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that the market participants are awaiting a fresh trigger for a decisive move. A decisive move above Thursday’s high at 1.0254 will drive the asset towards the August 2 high at 1.0294, followed by June 15 low at 1.0359. Alternatively, the greenback bulls could cripple the upside bias if the asset drops below July 27 low at 1.0097, which will drag the asset towards July 14 high at 1.0050. A breach of the latter will unleash the greenback bulls for more downside towards July 14 low at 0.9952. EUR/USD hourly chart  

AUD/USD bulls take a breather after the biggest daily jump in three weeks, taking rounds to 0.6880-90 amid the initial hour of Tuesday’s Asian session

AUD/USD grinds higher after the heavy gains amid a lack of major catalysts.China trade data, market’s preparations for US CPI appeared to have favored buyers.Mixed equities probed upside momentum, yields underpinned the US dollar pullback.Australia’s NAB data for July, second-tier US job numbers may entertain intraday traders, Taiwan headlines are important too.AUD/USD bulls take a breather after the biggest daily jump in three weeks, taking rounds to 0.6880-90 amid the initial hour of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair cheered the US dollar’s pullback, as well as firmer China data, before portraying a cautious mood ahead of sentiment data from the National Australia Bank (NAB) and the key US Consumer Price Index 9CPI) for July. The Aussie pair began the week on the front foot as the US Dollar Index (DXY) traced Treasury yields to consolidate the latest gains. That said, the DXY registered a 0.19% daily loss to 106.37 by the end of Monday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped nearly seven basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the latest, following a 14-bps run-up on Friday. Also helping the AUD/USD bulls were firmer prints of China’s trade numbers for July. The headline Trade Balance rose to $101.26B versus $90B forecasts and $97.94B. Further details suggest that Exports increased by 18% compared to 15% expected and 17.9% prior whereas the Imports eased to 2.3% compared to 3.7% expected and 1.0% prior. It’s worth noting, however, that the hawkish Fedspeak and anxiety ahead of the US inflation data capped the AUD/USD prices. The Fed policymakers welcomed Friday’s strong US jobs report while supporting the aggressive rate hikes. On Friday, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose to 528K versus 250K expected and 398K upwardly revised prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate also inched lower to 3.5% compared to 3.6% expected and previous readings. Following the data, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said during the weekend that the Fed is far from done in combating inflation. The policymaker also added, “50 bps increase is definitely in play. We need to keep an open mind.” On the same line was Fed Governor Michelle Bowman who said, “Fed should consider more 75 basis-point interest rate hikes at coming meetings in order to bring high inflation back down to the central bank's goal.” Moving on, NAB Business Confidence and NAB Business Conditions for July, expected 15 and 7 versus 13 and 1 in that order, will direct short-term moves of the AUD/USD ahead of the US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the second quarter (Q2). Forecasts suggest that the US Nonfarm Productivity coooulddd improve to -4.6% from -7.3% prior while Unit Labor Costs may ease to 9.5% versus 12.6% previous readings. Other than that, headlines surrounding Taiwan and Russia will also be important for clear directions. Technical analysis AUD/USD remains firmer above the 50-DMA support of 0.6880 but the upside momentum needs validation from a downward sloping resistance line from mid-June, close to 0.7025 by the press time.  

The EUR/JPY seesaws as the Asian Pacific session begins, just below the confluence of the 20 and 100-day EMA, around 137.99-138.19 area, amidst fragil

On Monday, the EUR/JPY registered minimal gains of 0.14%.EUR/JPY daily chart depicts the pair as neutral-to-downward biased; however, a break above 137.92 could shift the bias.Short term, the EUR/JPY is neutral-to-upwards, but breaks below 137.06, shift the bias to neutral.The EUR/JPY seesaws as the Asian Pacific session begins, just below the confluence of the 20 and 100-day EMA, around 137.99-138.19 area, amidst fragile sentiment, as shown by Asian equity futures set to open lower, while US equities closed mixed. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY is trading at 137.62, slightly up 0.02%.EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlookFrom a daily chart perspective, the EUR/JPY is bearish biased. Successions of lower highs/lows, alongside daily EMAs above the exchange rate, confirm those above. Also, sellers are gathering momentum, per the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows, at 46.05, with an almost horizontal slope, but still in negative territory. Therefore, the EUR/JPY's first support would be the August 8 daily low at 137.06. A break below could pave the way towards 135.80 August 5 low, exacerbating further downside action. On the flip side, the EUR/JPY's first resistance would be the August 8 high at 137.92. EUR/JPY Daily chart Meanwhile, the EUR/JPY  hourly chart portrays an opposite bias to the daily chart, neutral-to-upwards. Factors like the hourly EMAs, below the exchange rate, alongside the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at bullish territory, back up the bias. Therefore, the EUR/JPY's first resistance would be the confluence of the August 8 high and the R1 pivot around 137.92-138.00. A breach of the latter will expose the R2 daily pivot at 138.40, followed by the R3 pivot point at 138.87. On the other hand, a EUR/JPY break below 137.06 might shift the bias to neutral, opening the door for further losses. EUR/JPY Hourly chartEUR/JPY Key Technical Levels 

The GBP/USD pair is struggling to cross the immediate hurdle of 1.2080 and has marked its territory after a sheer downside move from the critical hurd

GBP/USD is sensing barricades around 1.2080 as investors await US CPI data.Downbeat oil prices have trimmed US CPI forecasts and Fed’s rate hike hopes.A lower consensus for BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales in times of higher inflation indicates vulnerable demand.The GBP/USD pair is struggling to cross the immediate hurdle of 1.2080 and has marked its territory after a sheer downside move from the critical hurdle of 1.2130. The cable is oscillating in a narrow range of 1.2068-1.2081 from the late New York session and is likely to remain topsy-turvy as investors are awaiting the release of the US Inflation. Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to shift lower to 8.7% on an annual basis as oil prices have remained vulnerable in July. Accelerating recession fears in the Western economies and China have trimmed the demand forecasts vigorously, which forced the market participants to dump oil longs. The investing community is aware of the fact that the volatile oil prices were driving the price rise index higher. Now, downbeat oil prices are clearly diminishing the inflation forecasts and the continuation of a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike odds by the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the core CPI that doesn’t inculcate volatile oil and food products is expected to elevate to 6.1% from the prior release of 5.9%. On the UK front, investors are awaiting the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is due on Friday. The economic data is expected to plummet to 2.8% vs. 8.7% reported earlier on an annual basis. An occurrence of the same will send the pound bulls on the back foot. But before that, the release of the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Like-For-Like Retail Sales holds significant importance. The economic data may plunge sharply to -8.4% vs. -1.3% reported last month. A significant drop in Retail Sales, in times when the inflation rate is accelerating, displays that the decline is higher than the absolute and relative plunge. Higher inflation should elevate Retail Sales data but a decline vulnerable retail demand in the economy.  

The NZD/USD climbs as the New York session winds down, up 0.72%, as US equities finished mixed, reflecting a fragile mood. Nevertheless, in the FX spa

NZD/USD advances despite a lack of catalyst, lifted by the AUD/USD.Sentiment remains mixed, tilted positively, as shown by the FX space, with safe-haven peers pressured.Fed policymakers are still pushing back against dovish tilt, as money market STIRs odds of a 75 bps hike lie at 90%.RBNZ survey of inflation expectations easied, with 2-year inflation at around 3%.The NZD/USD climbs as the New York session winds down, up 0.72%, as US equities finished mixed, reflecting a fragile mood. Nevertheless, in the FX space, a risk-on impulse underpinned risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand dollar, despite increasing odds of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. The NZD/USD is trading at 0.6285. earlier, the NZD/USD reached a daily low at 0.6230 before rallying sharply and hitting a daily high at 0.6305, around the London fix time. The sentiment is stills mixed. The greenback ended Monday’s session on the wrong foot, though late trimmed losses, with the US Dollar Index at 106.387, down 0.18%. Contrarily, US bond yields, led by the US 10-year T-bond yield, dropped almost nine bps, at 2.746%. The financial market narrative hasn’t changed. Strong US jobs report in last Friday, with US Nonfarm Payrolls surprisingly doubling estimation had seen a jump in Fed’s rate hikes expectations. Since money market futures STIRs show a 90% chance of a 75 bps rate hike, further fueled by Fed’s Michelle Bowman, over the weekend. She said, “I supported the FOMC’s decision last week to raise the federal funds rate another 75 basis points,” while adding that the Fed should keep considering significant hikes. Furthermore, San Francisco’s Fed Mary Daly said that the Fed is nowhere near done with its fight against inflation. Meanwhile, the July New York Fed Consumer survey revealed that inflation expectations dropped to 6.2% YoY from 6.8% for a 1-year horizon. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey of expectations released on Monday portrays that 2-year inflation expectations tempered to 3.07%. Meanwhile, the 5-year ahead measure slipped to 2.3%, while the 10-year remained stable at 2.1%. Analysts at Westpac wrote in a note that: “Even so, today’s survey still points to solid inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy and reinforces the case for rate rises. We’re forecasting another 50bp rise at next week’s RBNZ policy meeting. “What to watchThe New Zealand economic calendar will feature Electronic Card Retail Sales MoM and YoY for July. On the US front, the economic calendar will unveil July’s CPI and PPI data on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Further Fed speaking, led by Charles Evans, Neil Kashkari, and Mary Daly, would offer fresh impetus to NZD/USD traders.NZD/USD Key Technical Levels 

USD/JPY has been in recovery mode for the best part of a week, but it came up against resistance following last week’s strong July labour market data

USD/JPY bulls could be about to move back in on the daily chart.US CPI will be key this week, with eyes on US yields. USD/JPY has been in recovery mode for the best part of a week, but it came up against resistance following last week’s strong July labour market data in the US. On Monday, the pair is ending the New York session flat for the day at around 135 the figure having ranged between 134.34 and 135.58.  Analysts at ANZ Bank said that despite clear signs of a moderation in Gross Domestic Product growth globally, ''the slower growth and less accommodative monetary environment have yet to show up in increased labour market slack. Until clear evidence emerges that both labour markets and core inflation are moderating, central banks will remain dedicated to getting inflation down, a bias that points to the potential for further large incremental rate hikes.'' The focus for the week ahead will be the July US inflation data in Consumer Price Index that is expected to confirm core inflation (ex-food & energy) rose 0.5% MoM, up 6.1% YoY (5.9%). ''That is way too high for the Fed amid a tightening labour market. The priority of reducing inflation in order to underpin the expansion in domestic demand and sustainable jobs growth will ring loud and clear from the August 25-27 Jackson Hole symposium,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  The analysts at ANZ Bank also said that before the Federal Open Market Committee meets again in September, it will also have the August CPI and labour market data. ''Unless that moderates meaningfully from July’s strong gains, the risks are significant that the Fed may need to hike rates by another 75bps at the 20-21 September meeting.'' Meanwhile, from a positioning perspective, JPY net short positions fell according to the latest CFTC data. In the spot market the JPY had recovered some ground vs the USD as US yields dropped back. ''The stronger than expected US July payrolls report, however, has subsequently caused US 2-year yields to push higher and this has lent fresh support to USD/JPY in the spot market,'' analysts at Rabobank explained.  USD/JPY technical analysis As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears are lurking within a strong bullish trend, the price moved in to correct the bearish impulse:(Prior daily chart, above, prior H4 chart, below)USD/JPY live market As illustrated, the price indeed moved in towards the targetted area of mitigation as per the prior analysis forecasted and explained. At this juncture, there are prospects of a correction of Friday's bullish candle into the neckline of the W-formation as follows: The upside prospects will send on the performance of US yields, but there are stacking up for a bullish continuation in the 10-year yields according to the recovery attempts within the broadening formation as follows: The yield has corrected towards the neckline of the W-formation on the daily chart within the lower boundary of the broadening formation. In turn, should the price hold above the flagged levels on the chart above, then a break of the trendline resistance could result in a rally in yields, a weight for gold prices. 
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