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ศุกร์, พฤษภาคม 14, 2021

The single currency picks up extra pace and lifts EUR/USD further north of the 1.2100 barrier so far at the end of the week. EUR/USD stays bid ahead o

EUR/USD regains traction and surpasses 1.2100.US German 10-year yields recede from recent tops.US Retail Sales, U-Mich Index next of relevance.The single currency picks up extra pace and lifts EUR/USD further north of the 1.2100 barrier so far at the end of the week. EUR/USD stays bid ahead of US data EUR/USD regains the smile in the second half of the week and manages to finally retake the area further north of 1.2100 the figure. The softer note in the greenback plus the generalized upbeat sentiment in the risk-associated universe allows for the continuation of the upside momentum around the European currency. In addition, higher German yields also lend extra legs to the recovery in the pair from weekly lows in the mid-1.2000s. Data wise in Euroland, the ECB will publish its Accounts (minutes) from the latest meeting. Across the pond, the April’s Retail Sales will take centre stage seconded by the preliminary gauge of the Consumer Sentiment. In addition, Industrial and Manufacturing Production are due along with Capacity Utilization and Business Inventories. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD regains ground lost in past sessions and advances past the 1.2100 yardstick amidst a better tone in the riskier assets. In the meantime, the sentiment around the single currency stays constructive on the back of the investors’ shift to the improved growth outlook in the Old Continent now that the vaccine campaign appears to have gained some serious pace and solid results from key fundamentals pari passu with the surging morale in the bloc.Key events in the euro area this week: ECB Accounts (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is gaining 0.22% at 1.2104 and faces the next up barrier at 1.2181 (monthly high May 11) followed by 1.2243 (monthly high Feb.25) and finally 1.2349 (2021 high Jan.6). On the downside, a break below 1985 (monthly low May 5) would target 1.1951 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1887 (61.8% Fibo of the November-January rally).

Following Wednesday's steep decline, the AUD/USD pair managed to post small daily gains on Thursday and extended its rebound toward 0.7750 on Friday.

AUD/USD is posting small daily gains on Friday.Broad-based USD weakness is helping AUD/USD stay in the positive territory.Focus shifts to Retail Sales and Industrial Production data from US.Following Wednesday's steep decline, the AUD/USD pair managed to post small daily gains on Thursday and extended its rebound toward 0.7750 on Friday. Ahead of key macroeconomic data releases from the US, however, the pair seems to be having a difficult time gathering momentum. As of writing, AUD/USD was up 0.1% on the day at 0.7737. Upbeat market mood hurts USD The broad-based USD weakness is helping AUD/USD to stay afloat in the positive territory. The US Dollar Index, which touched a six-day high of 90.90 on Wednesday, is currently losing 0.3% at 90.45. In the absence of significant fundamental drivers, the greenback struggles to find demand in the risk-positive market environment. Later in the session, the US Census Bureau will release the April Retail Sales data. The US Federal Reserve's Industrial Production data will be featured in the US economic docket ahead of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures are up 0.6% on the day, suggesting that risk flows could continue to dominate the financial markets in the second half of the day and support AUD. Technical levels to watch for  

USD/JPY has successfully held its uptrend from January at 108.43. Economists at Credit Suisse look for a break above 109.95/97 for strength back to te

USD/JPY has successfully held its uptrend from January at 108.43. Economists at Credit Suisse look for a break above 109.95/97 for strength back to test the 110.97 March high.  Support remains at 109.27/22 “Key near-term resistance remains seen at 109.95/97, above which is needed to clear the way for strength back to the late March high and potential downtrend from February 2020 at 110.83/97.”  “Whilst a fresh rejection from 110.83/97 should be expected, above in due course can open the door to a test of much important resistance at 111.96/112.40, beyond which would raise the prospect of a much more significant base.”  “Support moves to 109.41 initially, then 109.27/22, which we look to try and hold. A break can see a test of the 55-day average at 108.91 and with 108.36/35 ideally holding any further weakness.”  

The NZD/USD pair has held above the 0.7170 uptrend from the 2021 lows – which maintains a mild upward tilt for a move back to 0.7306, analysts at Cred

The NZD/USD pair has held above the 0.7170 uptrend from the 2021 lows – which maintains a mild upward tilt for a move back to 0.7306, analysts at Credit Suisse appraise. Kiwi keeps a mild upward tilt in place “The break above resistance at 0.7180 should relieve the downward pressure and confirm that the uptrend has held, with next resistance thereafter at 0.7245/47, then the recent highs at 0.7306/16, which recently stalled the market, before the 78.6% retracement of the Q1 fall at 0.7353, where we would expect another pause.”  The next supports below 0.7146/34 are seen at 0.7122/15, with a break below here needed to turn the risks lower for a move back to the 0.7004/6997 lows, with the 200-day average just below at 0.6970.”  

The NZD/USD pair climbed to two-day tops during the first half of the European session, with bulls looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 0

NZD/USD gained traction for the second straight day amid some fresh USD selling bias.Dovish Fed expectations, sliding US bond yields, positive risk tone undermined the buck.Investors now look forward to the US Retail Sales figures for a fresh directional impetus.The NZD/USD pair climbed to two-day tops during the first half of the European session, with bulls looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 0.7200 mark. The pair built on the previous day's rebound from the 0.7135 region, or over one-week lows and gained some follow-through traction on the last trading day of the week. This marked the second consecutive day of a positive move and was sponsored by the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar. The USD struggled to capitalize on this week's positive move, instead met with some fresh supply amid the Fed's stubbornly dovish stance. A slew of Fed officials reiterated that price pressures would prove transitory and is unlikely to prompt an immediate shift in the US central bank's positioning. Investors now seem convinced that the Fed would keep interest rates low for a longer period. This was reinforced by the ongoing decline in the US Treasury bond yields. Apart from this, a fresh leg up in the equity markets further undermined the safe-haven USD and benefitted the perceived riskier kiwi. Moving ahead, the focus now shifts to the US economic docket, highlighting the release of monthly Retail Sales figures and Prelim Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The data will be scrutinized for guidance on whether the upward pressure on prices will persist, which will influence Fed rate expectations. This, along with the US bond yields, will play a key role in driving the USD in the near term. Apart from this, traders will further take cues from the broader market risk sentiment for some short-term trading opportunities around the NZD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Global equity funds witnessed heavy inflows in the week ended May 12, in the wake of the vaccine optimism-driven faster economic turnaround, Refinitiv

Global equity funds witnessed heavy inflows in the week ended May 12, in the wake of the vaccine optimism-driven faster economic turnaround, Refinitiv Lipper data showed on Friday. Additional takeaways “Global equity funds received $15.1 billion worth of inflows, the biggest in four weeks.” “Financials and mining sector funds received $1.3 billion each, while tech sector funds faced outflows worth $1.2 billion in the week.” “Global inflation-protection bond funds obtained $1.9 billion, the highest in four months.” “Overall, global bond funds received an inflow of $11.2 billion. Japan and Indian bonds witnessed outflows in the week, due to jitters about a surge in coronavirus cases.” “Among commodities, gold and precious metal funds received $305 million, the biggest inflows in 14 weeks.”

USD/JPY has embarked into a gradual correction lower after hitting monthly highs near 109.80 in past hours. However, in the view of FXStTreet’s Pablo

USD/JPY has embarked into a gradual correction lower after hitting monthly highs near 109.80 in past hours. However, in the view of FXStTreet’s Pablo Piovano, a move to 110.00 is not ruled out. Focus of attention will once again be on the US docket “Upcoming data is expected to shed extra details on the US recovery, with yields and price action in the dollar closely following. In the US docket, US Retail Sales will be in the limelight seconded by Industrial Production figures and the flash prints of the U-Mich index.” “The continuation of the downtrend is seen meeting interim contention at the 50-day SMA just above 109.00. This area of contention is also reinforced by the Fibo level (of the 2021 rally) around 109.00. Further south comes in the monthly lows around 108.30 (May 7/11).”  “On the upside, the surpass of monthly tops around 109.80 should open in the door to the key level at 110.00 the figure ahead of the YTD highs in levels just shy of 111.00 (March 31).”  

USD/CHF has been capped below the 200-day average at 0.9083 as expected and economists at Credit Suisse look for a turn back lower from here. Resistan

USD/CHF has been capped below the 200-day average at 0.9083 as expected and economists at Credit Suisse look for a turn back lower from here. Resistance is seen at 0.9083/9115 “We look for a turn back lower from 0.9083. Going forwards, a sustained move back below 0.9030 would confirm a near-term peak. Thereafter, the next levels are seen at 0.9000/8985, which stalled the market on Monday, then 0.8922/10, before 0.8871/62, which is an important price low.”  “With weekly MACD crossing back below MACDA, we would not even rule out a test of the 2021 low at 0.8757.”  “Resistance stays at the 200-day average at 0.9083/9115, which should now ideally cap to keep the risks directly lower. Above here, the next levels are seen at 0.9165.”  

USD/CAD is on a freefall over the last hours after the bulls failed to take out powerful resistance at the 200-hourly moving average (HMA), now at 1.2

USD/CAD bulls trying to defend the 50-HMA support.The spot has charted a rising wedge break down on the hourly sticks. Rejection at 200-DMA prompted the U-turn in the prices. USD/CAD is on a freefall over the last hours after the bulls failed to take out powerful resistance at the 200-hourly moving average (HMA), now at 1.2175. With the corrective decline, the spot has charted a rising wedge break down the hourly sticks after it breached the crucial support at 1.2158. That zone is the confluence of the rising trendline and 21-HMA. The mildly bullish 50-HMA at 1.2133 is currently testing the bearish commitments. A breach of the last could expose the 100-HMA at 1.2118. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) edges lower within the bearish region, suggesting that there is more room to the downside. However, the bears could bid time before the next push lower, awaiting the dollar’s reaction to the US Retail Sales release. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Any pullback will have to crack the 1.2160 resistance zone, the previous support now an upside barrier. A sustained move above the latter could see the buyers once again yearning for the 200-HMA. At the time of writing, the major is shedding 0.20% to trade around 1.2135, having felt the pull of gravity due to fresh declines in the US dollar. Additionally, the 1% bounce in WTI prices boosts the Canadian dollar, exerting downside pressure on the spot. The US oil rebounded this Friday after dropping 3% a day before, in response to rising covid cases in India and the news about the Colonial pipeline restart. USD/CAD: Additional levels  

The GBP/USD pair traded with a positive bias through the first half of the European session, albeit lacked any follow-through buying. The pair was las

Renewed USD selling bias assisted GBP/USD to regain positive traction on Friday.Dovish Fed expectations, sliding US bond yields continued to undermine the USD.Investors look forward to the US Retail Sales data for a fresh directional impetus.The GBP/USD pair traded with a positive bias through the first half of the European session, albeit lacked any follow-through buying. The pair was last seen hovering around the 1.4070-65 region, up over 0.10% for the day. The pair regained positive traction on Friday and built on the overnight bounce from the key 1.4000 psychological mark amid the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar. Despite signs of rising inflation in the US, the Fed's stubbornly dovish stance failed to assist the USD to capitalize on this week's solid rebound from the lowest level since February 25. The Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday that weak job growth and strong inflation in April had not changed the central bank's plan to maintain a loose monetary policy. Adding to this, the Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that the Fed would not raise rates until it sees inflation above target for a long time or excessively high inflation. Investors now seem convinced that the incoming positive economic data is unlikely to prompt an immediate shift in the Fed's stubbornly dovish stance. This was seen as a key factor that continued acting as a headwind for the USD. Apart from this, a fresh leg up in the equity markets further dented the greenback's relative safe-haven status. On the other hand, the British pound remained well supported by the optimistic outlook for the UK economic recovery from the pandemic. The combination of factors extended some support to the GBP/USD pair, though the uptick lacked bullish conviction. Market participants now seemed to wait for fresh clues from Friday's release of the US Retail Sales figures. The data will be closely scrutinized for guidance on whether the upward pressure on prices will persist and influence the Fed rate expectations. This, along with the US bond yields, will play a key role in driving the USD in the near term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

The Canadian dollar has continued to correct modestly lower against the US dollar resulting in USD/CAD hitting the 1.2200 level on Thursday. The looni

The Canadian dollar has continued to correct modestly lower against the US dollar resulting in USD/CAD hitting the 1.2200 level on Thursday. The loonie was undermined both by the sell-off in the oil market and more importantly by comments from BoC Governor Macklem who expressed more concern over CAD strength. However, this weakness is expected to be short-lived, in the view of economists at MUFG Bank. See: USD/CAD to touch 1.16 at the end of the year – ING BoC signals more concern over CAD strength “Governor Macklem expressed more concern over Canadian dollar strength. He stated that ‘a stronger dollar creates some risk for our outlook. It is moved a lot further that could have a material impact on our outlook and it’s something we’d have to take into account in our setting of monetary policy’.” “Our technical RSI signal shows that the Canadian dollar has become heavily overbought in the near-term which increases the risk it continues to correct lower in the near-term following Governor Macklem’s comments.” “Any weakness is likely to prove short-lived though while the Bank of Canada continues to signal that it plans to begin raising rates next year and is backed up by better than expected economic data releases from Canada.”   

The intraday USD selling picked up pace during the early European session and dragged the USD/CHF pair to three-day lows, around the 0.9020 region in

USD/CHF witnessed some follow-through selling for the second straight session on Friday.Dovish Fed expectations, sliding US bond yields undermined the USD and exerted pressure.Investors look forward to the US Retail Sales figures for some meaningful trading impetus.The intraday USD selling picked up pace during the early European session and dragged the USD/CHF pair to three-day lows, around the 0.9020 region in the last hour. The pair faced rejection near the very important 200-day SMA on Thursday and stalled this week's goodish rebound from sub-0.9000 levels, or two-and-half-month lows. The overnight pullback from the vicinity of the 0.9300 mark extended through the first half of the trading action on Friday amid the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar. Despite evidence of rising inflation in the US, a slew of Fed officials reiterated that price pressures from the reopening of the economy would prove transitory. Investors now seem convinced that the incoming positive economic data is unlikely to prompt an immediate shift in the Fed's stubbornly dovish stance, which acted as a headwind for the greenback. The Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday that weak job growth and strong inflation in April had not changed the central bank's plan to maintain a loose monetary policy. Adding to this, the Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that the Fed would not raise rates until it sees inflation above target for a long time or excessively high inflation. Dovish Fed expectations dragged the US Treasury bond yields lower, which was seen as another factor that exerted some additional downward pressure on the USD. Even a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which tends to dent demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc, also did little to impress bulls or lend any support to the USD/CHF pair. The market attention now turns to the release of US monthly Retail Sales figures, due later during the early North American session. The data will be closely scrutinized for guidance on whether the upward pressure on prices will persist. This might influence the Fed rate expectations, which, along with the US bond yields, will drive the USD in the near term. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment will also be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD is swiftly recovering ground above 1.2100, as the US dollar corrects its recent rally to weekly highs. Investors resort to profit-taking on th

EUR/USD is swiftly recovering ground above 1.2100, as the US dollar corrects its recent rally to weekly highs. Investors resort to profit-taking on the USD longs ahead of all-important US Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment data. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policymakers continue to see rising inflation as transitory, weighing negatively on the US Treasury yields while aiding EUR/USD’s bounce. How is EUR//USD positioned on the technical graphs? EUR/USD Price Chart: Key resistance and support levels The Technical Confluences Detector shows that EUR/USD is threatening powerful resistance at 1.2130, which is the convergence of the SMA100 one-hour, SMA5 one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week. If the buyers find a foothold above the latter, the previous month highs of 1.2150 could be on their radars. The next relevant barrier awaits at 1.2180, the confluence of the previous week high and Bollinger Band one-day Upper. On the flip side, if the bears fight back control, the EUR/USD pair could turn south once again, in order to test a dense cluster of strong support levels around 1.2090-80. That zone is the intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day, SMA10 one-day and Bollinger Band one-day Middle. Should the bearish momentum gain traction, it will be critical for the bulls to hold onto the crucial support around 1.2060, where the SMA100 one-day, the previous day low and Fibonacci 23.6% one-month coincide. The 1.2030 cushion will be the last line of defense for the EUR bullish traders. At that point, the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day meets with the pivot point one-day S2. Here is how it looks on the tool        About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies.

Investors are sounding the alarm over inflation, fearful that the Fed's Average Inflation Targetingframework along with a greater focus on full employ

Investors are sounding the alarm over inflation, fearful that the Fed's Average Inflation Targetingframework along with a greater focus on full employment may lead to a policy error. The reality is more nuanced, with three key scenarios emerging, Daniel Ghali, Commodity Strategist at TD Securities reports. See – Gold: Higher XAU/USD set to benefit gold miners – DBS Bank Barring a hawkish Fed, XAU/USD is poised to move upwards “Inflation is not transitory and the market will force the Fed's hand. This scenario plays into recent fears, as the market pulls forward future rate hikes, weighing on risk assets. Gold's bull market would be likely to die.” “Inflation is not transitory, but the Fed is behind the curve. During this time, gold would ultimately surge along with inflation-hedging assets, particularly energy and industrial commodities.” “Inflation is transitory and the Fed stays on message. Here, inflation risk is nearly peaking, which should translate into a weaker USD as AIT prolongs a period of uber-dovish policies. This should firm both risky and real assets, including gold.” “TD Securities sits in the transitory camp, which paints a positive picture for gold. Notwithstanding, gold is also underperforming against periods of high inflation. Barring a hawkish Fed, the yellow metal is ultimately set to trade higher.”  

Silver reversed an intraday dip to the $26.80 region and is now looking to build on the overnight rebound from one-week lows. The white metal turned p

Silver edged higher for the second straight session and moved further away from weekly lows.The set-up seems tilted in favour of bullish traders and supports prospects for additional gains.Sustained weakness below the $26.70 confluence support will negate the constructive outlook.Silver reversed an intraday dip to the $26.80 region and is now looking to build on the overnight rebound from one-week lows. The white metal turned positive for the second straight session and shot to two-day tops, around the $27.30 region during the early European session. Looking at the technical picture, the XAG/USD has been trending higher along an upward sloping channel extending from YTD lows, around the $23.80-75 region touched on March 31. The recent pullback from the $27.65-70 region stalled near the lower boundary of the mentioned channel. The emergence of some dip-buying near the trend-channel support and the subsequent positive move favours bullish traders. That said, repeated failures near the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the $30.07-$23.78 downfall warrant some caution before positioning for any strong gains. From current levels, any further positive move might continue to confront stiff resistance near the $27.65-70 region. A convincing breakthrough should push the XAG/USD beyond the $28.00 mark, towards challenging the trend-channel hurdle near the $28.25-30 supply zone. On the flip side, weakness below the $27.00 mark is likely to be limited by the trend-channel support, around the $26.80 region. This coincides with 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which if broken decisively will shift the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. The next relevant support is pegged near the $26.15-10 area (38.2% Fibo.), below which the XAG/USD might turn vulnerable to break below the $26.00 mark. This will eventually expose the $25.00 psychological mark, with some intermediate support near the $25.30-25 zone (23.6% Fibo.). XAG/USD 4-hour chart Technical levels to watch  

A confluence of factors has increased the likelihood for the energy sector to outperform the overall market, in the view of economists at Charles Schw

A confluence of factors has increased the likelihood for the energy sector to outperform the overall market, in the view of economists at Charles Schwab. The fundamental backdrop has improved significantly. Growing demand for oil and constrained supply are bolstering oil prices, and energy companies are being more disciplined with expense and investment – together supporting attractive valuations. Clean-energy initiatives are not an immediate threat “The ongoing recovery of the global economy bodes well for rising oil demand.” “Supply remains constrained by OPEC and cautious producers, and inventories are down – driving oil prices higher.” “The expansion phase of the business cycle can support cyclical-value energy companies, and large diversified energy companies are becoming more disciplined with expenses and investment. Meanwhile, attractive valuations are reinforced by rising earnings expectations.” “Except for some near-term headlines noise and measured rise in regulations, however, a dramatic impact from the clean energy movement on the energy sector landscape is likely years away.” “Other near-term risks include economic threats to oil demand, geopolitical impact on supply, and market volatility.” “Weighing the issues, we believe the Energy sector is poised to outperform during the next three to six months.”  

The upside momentum in the greenback loses further traction and drags the US Dollar Index (DXY) to new 2-day lows in the 90.50 region at the end of th

DXY loses further traction and drops to lows near 90.50.US 10-year yields look steady around the 1.65% area.Retail Sales, flash Consumer Sentiment next of relevance in the docket.The upside momentum in the greenback loses further traction and drags the US Dollar Index (DXY) to new 2-day lows in the 90.50 region at the end of the week. US Dollar Index looks to data, yields The index gives away further gains and recedes to new 2-day lows following the rejection from the vicinity of the 91.00 hurdle on Thursday, while the mild downside in US yields also collaborates with the move. Indeed, once market participants have digested the higher-than-expected inflation figures during April (published on Wednesday), the sentiment around the dollar looks somewhat deflated, allowing some recovery in the risk complex. In the Fedspeak universe, FOMC’s Waller said on Thursday that he expects inflation to run above the Fed’s goal in the next couple of years and return to the 2% target in 2023. He also expects the Fed to keep the accommodative stance for “some time”. Additionally, T.Barkin from the Richmond Fed emphasized the outperformance of the US economy vs. its peers on the back of improved consumer confidence and a “booming” housing sector. Interesting day in the US data space, where Retail Sales will take centre stage seconded by the preliminary reading of the Consumer Sentiment for the month of May. In addition, Industrial Production figures are due seconded by Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilization and Business Inventories. What to look for around USD The upside momentum in the index run out of steam just below the 91.00 hurdle earlier in the week. Recent bouts of risk aversion plus higher inflation figures lent some much-needed oxygen to the dollar, although the negative stance on the currency appears to dominate the broader scenario in the longer run. This view has been exacerbated following April’s NFP, hurting at the same time the sentiment surrounding the imminent full re-opening of the US economy, which is in turn sustained by the unabated strength in domestic fundamentals, the solid vaccine rollout and once again the resurgence of the market chatter regarding an anticipated tapering. The latter comes in despite Fed’s efforts to talk down this scenario, at least for the next months.Key events in the US this week: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, flash May Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families worth nearly $4 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.17% at 90.56 and faces the next support at 89.98 (monthly low May 11) followed by 89.68 (monthly low Feb.25) and then 89.20 (2021 low Jan.6). On the other hand, a breakout of 90.90 (weekly high May 11) would open the door to 91.07 (100-day SMA) and finally 91.43 (weekly/monthly high May 5).

In April, the USD/IDR pair continued fluctuating without moving in any direction. According to economists at Mizuho Bank, the Indonesian rupiah is for

In April, the USD/IDR pair continued fluctuating without moving in any direction. According to economists at Mizuho Bank, the Indonesian rupiah is forecast to remain strong against the US dollar in May. There are some sources of concerns though  “Given the current situation with US interest rates, security investment in Indonesia is likely to return. It can therefore be said that the Indonesian rupiah is not likely to depreciate further for a while.” “The situation in Indonesia with the COVID-19 pandemic and covid vaccinations has not been seen as optimistic from a global perspective. The Indonesian rupiah is thus expected to continue strengthening based on the trade surplus with increasing exports resulting from the economic recovery of trade partners.” “The current situation in India has been extremely severe, as has been reported in the media. Indonesia could fall into the same situation in the times ahead, and such risks are relatively high. Market participants should thus continue carefully observing the headlines on the domestic situation as related to the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, if the covid situation does not deteriorate any further, the trade surplus could be gradually reduced. It should be reminded that this means that a supporting factor for the Indonesian rupiah could start to weaken in the long run.”  

The USD/JPY pair retreated nearly 30 pips from the Asian session highs and dropped to fresh daily lows, around the 109.35 region in the last hour. The

Renewed USD selling dragged USD/JPY lower for the second consecutive session on Friday.A generally positive risk tone might undermine the safe-haven JPY and help limit the slide.Investors look forward to the US monthly Retail Sales data for a fresh directional impetus.The USD/JPY pair retreated nearly 30 pips from the Asian session highs and dropped to fresh daily lows, around the 109.35 region in the last hour. The pair struggled to capitalize on its early uptick, instead met with some fresh supply near the 109.65 region and has now drifted into the negative territory. This marked the second consecutive day of a downtick and was sponsored by renewed US dollar selling bias. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond retreated further from the 1.70% threshold and kept the USD bulls on the defensive. That said, a generally positive tone around the equity markets might undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen and help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair. Despite evidence of rising inflation in the US, a slew of Fed officials reiterated that price pressures from the reopening of the economy would prove transitory and is unlikely to prompt an immediate shift in the Fed's positioning. The Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday that weak job growth and strong inflation in April had not changed the central bank's plan to maintain the loose monetary policy. Adding to this, the Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that the Fed would not raise rates until it sees inflation above target for a long time or excessively high inflation. Hence, the market attention turns to Friday's release of the US monthly Retail Sales figures, which will be scrutinized for guidance on whether the upward pressure on prices will persist. This will play a key role in driving the Fed rate expectations, which, along with the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics in the near term. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might further contribute to producing some trading opportunities around the USD/JPY pair on the last day of the week. Technical levels to watch  

Copper (LME) has moved to new record highs. The Credit Suisse analyst team stays bullish for $11000 and higher. The $9719/9617 region provides solid s

Copper (LME) has moved to new record highs. The Credit Suisse analyst team stays bullish for $11000 and higher. The $9719/9617 region provides solid support for a pullback “Copper has surged sharply higher again for a move to a new record high above the high of 2011 at $10190. Although a knee-jerk pullback should be allowed for, we maintain our core bullish outlook and stay bullish with resistance see next at the psychological $11000 mark, which we would expect to cap the market, at least temporarily.”  “A direct break above the $11000 level can see next projection resistance at $11210, then $11440.” “Support at $9719/9617 now ideally offers good support for a pullback.”  

GBP/USD has been attempting recovery as markets swing back to positive ground. However, virus variant concerns and the American shopper may push cable

GBP/USD has been attempting recovery as markets swing back to positive ground. However, virus variant concerns and the American shopper may push cable below 1.40, Yohay Elam, an Analyst at FXStreet, reports. 1.40 is a critical separator of ranges “Prime Minister Boris Johnson has come short of suggesting a reversal in policy but he has expressed concerns about the rapid spread of the Indian variant in the UK. Various health officials have called on the government to reconsider its roadmap and take a more cautious approach. If these voices grow louder – and if COVID-19 cases rise – sterling could suffer. “ “Retail Sales statistics for April are forecast to show a moderate increase after March's 9.8% leap. Only a drop in expenditure could further pressure the dollar, and that seems highly unlikely.”  “The last word of the week belongs to the preliminary Consumer Sentiment figures from the University of Michigan. Economists expect a moderate increase, extending the recovery. Any surprise in the headline or the inflation components could boost the greenback.” “Pound/dollar's first brush with the 1.40 line after the big breakout resulted in a bounce. Nevertheless, momentum on the four-hour chart has turned to the downside, raising the chances of a downfall. On the other hand, cable still holds above the 50, 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).”   

AUD/USD is set to experience a sharper correction lower if the pair fails to surpass the 0.7740/50 area – which is currently tacking. The slide in Iro

AUD/USD is set to experience a sharper correction lower if the pair fails to surpass the 0.7740/50 area – which is currently tacking. The slide in Iron Ore triggered by Chinese policymakers also warrants some caution, as reported by ING. Iron Ore slump suggests caution “After surging 10% on Monday, Iron Ore is now falling 10% today. Driving this move seems to be the intervention of Chinese policymakers, wary that a surge in commodity prices could undermine the recovery. Here, officials have raised margins and imposed fees on steel trading and made it clear that speculators will be frowned upon.” “The synchronised recovery in global demand suggests the rally in commodities is an enduring one. But for the short-term, corrective forces are at play – which could take its toll on the AUD – a key exporter of iron ore.” “Failure of AUD/USD to regain the 0.7740/50 area today, warns of some potentially sharper corrective losses under 0.7675/85.”  

AUD/USD consolidates gains below 0.7750 in early European session. Pair seeks more downside if price breaks below 0.7710. Momentum oscillator remains

 AUD/USD consolidates gains below 0.7750 in early European session.Pair seeks more downside if price breaks below 0.7710.Momentum oscillator remains on oversold trajectory and warns against aggressive bets.The AUD/USD pair maintains a muted tone and trades in a range-bound manner in the European session. The pair tracks the previous day’s subdued price action, accumulating 30-pip moves at a time. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7744, up 0.019% on the day. AUD/USD daily chart On the daily chart, the pair has been consolidating gains above the 0.7730 level. The price is placed just above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7712. If price breaks below the mentioned level, then the first stop would be Thursday's low at 0.7687. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reads above the midline with  bearish crossover. This suggests the price could correct further toward the 0.7650 horizontal support level followed by the April 14 lows at 0.7633. Alternatively, if price makes a sustained move above the session’s high at 0.7747, then it could reach the previous day’s high at 0.7768 followed by the 0.7820 horizontal resistance level. The next area of resistance would be the May 7 high at 0.7853 for bulls. AUD/USD Additional Levels  

USD/JPY maintains a recovery off trendline support at 108.43. In the medium-term, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzba

USD/JPY maintains a recovery off trendline support at 108.43. In the medium-term, Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, believes the pair is set to target the 112.23/50 region.   Positive above the uptrend at 108.43 “Attention is on the 109.96 April 9 high, which remains the barrier to the 110.97 March high and the 111.13/38 October 2018 low and mid-February 2019 high.” “Below 108.43 will alleviate immediate upside pressure for a slide back to the 107.48 April low.” “Our medium-term target is 112.23/50, which represents the April 2019 high, the 2020 high and a long term Fibonacci retracement.”  

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in April

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.2%) in April

Spain HICP (YoY) came in at 2%, above expectations (1.9%) in April

Spain HICP (MoM) meets expectations (1.1%) in April

Attractive valuations and strong balance sheets make gold miners a sector that will benefit from higher gold prices, according to strategists at DBS B

Attractive valuations and strong balance sheets make gold miners a sector that will benefit from higher gold prices, according to strategists at DBS Bank.   XAU/USD to resume its upward trend towards the $2,000 level “The three factors which are biased against gold prices are in the process of reversing – US bond yields have retreated, the US dollar has weakened, and the US employment outlook has faltered. Even as gold underperformed last quarter, we believe the price can resume its upward trend towards the USD2,000 level. This comes from the positive view on demand change, which is derived from central banks and discretionary spending.”  “Gold mining securities should benefit from higher demand and gold prices. We believe it will be a production growth story this year for miners. Miners should be able to maintain all-in costs with higher production volume despite threats from higher operating costs such as wages and fuel prices.” “Gold mining companies are still generating good cashflows, which could enable them to embark them on growth/reinvestment cycles. Balance sheets are well managed after correcting mistakes seen in earlier years of overpaying for M&As.”  

According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin scaling back asset purchases in the first quarter of 2022

According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could begin scaling back asset purchases in the first quarter of 2022, as its main concern remains that the core PCE inflation could hit the 2.8% threshold.   Key takeaways “That inflation gauge would have to rise as high as 2.8% to cause discomfort at the Fed, according to the median of 41 economists in response to an additional question in the May 10-13 poll. While forecasts ranged from 2.3% to a high of 4.0%, the most common response, or the mode, was 2.5%.” “When asked how long the Fed would tolerate that high rate of core PCE inflation before it acts, 36 of 41 economists said three months at least.” “Asked when the US unemployment rate would reach its pre-crisis levels, a majority of economists, or 35 of 50, said it would take over a year, including 15 predicting more than two years.” “Asked when the Fed would start scaling back its $120 billion monthly asset purchases, a majority of economists, or 31 of 51, said in the first quarter of 2022, while 13 respondents said in Q4 this year.”

Silver (XAG/USD) remains trapped in its range. Nevertheless, strategists at Credit Suisse continue to look for an eventual break higher. Above $30.10/

Silver (XAG/USD) remains trapped in its range. Nevertheless, strategists at Credit Suisse continue to look for an eventual break higher.  Above $30.10/72 lies the $35.23/36 neighborhood “Silver extends its sideways consolidation from last August but we continue to view this as a corrective pause ahead of an eventual move back to $30.10/72.”  “Beyond the $30.10/72 area is needed to act as the catalyst for a resumption of the core bull trend with resistance then seen next at $35.23/365.”  “Support at $23.78 now ideally holds.”  

This month, AUD/JPY reached highs since February 2018, around 85.80. Looking ahead, economists at Westpac forecast the pair to trade around 90.00 by t

This month, AUD/JPY reached highs since February 2018, around 85.80. Looking ahead, economists at Westpac forecast the pair to trade around 90.00 by the end of the year.  10-year JGB yields will remain at around zero percent “Ongoing COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and very generous fiscal and monetary policy will drive a coordinated global upswing over 2021 and into 2022. This will help underpin commodity demand and thus A$ outperformance on most cross rates, even after substantial appreciation from the pandemic lows.”  “A renewed rise in global bond yields should support AUD/JPY, given the BoJ’s commitment to ‘around’ 0% yield for the 10-year JGB. Japanese demand for foreign bonds has jumped since the fiscal year began in April. While the RBA’s dedication to loose policy is very clear, steepening yield curves globally should help A$ on crosses.”  “Our base case is for AUD/JPY to trend towards 86 over Q2, to 87 by Sep and our year-end forecast is 90.”  

Despite the concerns about the Indian variant, the UK covid Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said on Friday, he thinks the roadmap for reopening will s

Despite the concerns about the Indian variant, the UK covid Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said on Friday, he thinks the roadmap for reopening will stay in place and that the vaccines are delivering. Additional comments “There are concerns in some areas of the UK about the Indian variant, where infection rates are rising. “ “We have no evidence that this new variant is more severe on people or escapes vaccines. “ “We can flex the vaccine rollout to deal with this new variant.”

Gold has found its feet around $1,820 after falling to fresh weekly lows of $1809 in the first half of Thursday’s trading. XAU/USD’s fate hinges on US

Gold has found its feet around $1,820 after falling to fresh weekly lows of $1809 in the first half of Thursday’s trading. XAU/USD’s fate hinges on US consumer data while technicals favor bulls, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports.   See – Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD set to surpass the 2020-2021 trendline at $1865 – Commerzbank US Retail Sales and Michigan Consumer Sentiment hold the key “The US Retail Sales are likely to rise by 1% MoM in April when compared to a massive 9.7% increase reported in March. If the data bets estimates, the US dollar is likely to see a fresh leg higher amid the ongoing influence of inflation dynamics on the markets. Gold could bear the brunt of fresh dollar’s advance. Meanwhile, disappointing US data could temper the Fed’s tightening calls, boding well for the gold optimists.” “The price of gold could advance towards the 200-DMA at $1847 if the buying interest picks up pace. Ahead of that the $1840 level needs to be scaled on a sustained basis.” “The confluence of the 21 and 100-DMAs at $1795 could emerge as a strong support if Thursday’s low caves into any downside pressure.”  

The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index gauge for May is set to rise from April's 88.3 points, yet remain below pre-pandemic

The University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index gauge for May is set to rise from April's 88.3 points, yet remain below pre-pandemic levels. The inflation expectations' components are eyed. In the view of FXSteeet’s Analyst Joseph Trevisani, if consumer sentiment is lackluster, the dollar and equities will take the hit.  Inflation may be a growing concern for consumers “The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to rise to 90.4 in May, which would be the third pandemic high in a row, following 84.9 in March and 88.3 in April. Sentiment was 101 last February before the government ordered lockdowns struck the economy in March and April.” “The Federal Reserve contention that the current price increases are a temporary phenomenon has merit, and the annual gains will drop back once last year’s trough in the index is passed. Likewise, the resource and component shortages will pass as the global economy normalizes but even when they do prices are very unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic levels.”  “For the consumer, looking at a year or more of elevated and rising prices, the derivation is moot. Inflation is a tax on income and if it persists, it will sap the consumer spending essential to a successful US recovery.”  “Markets are focused on inflation, if consumer sentiment is lackluster, the dollar and equities will take the hit.”  

EUR/USD has been able to stabilize as the market mood improved. Nonetheless, euro bulls may be asking themselves, frustrated from the minor recovery –

EUR/USD has been able to stabilize as the market mood improved. Nonetheless, euro bulls may be asking themselves, frustrated from the minor recovery – a classic "dead-cat bounce." According to FXStreet’s Analyst Yohay Elam, US Retail Sales may trigger a downfall to 1.20. The tables are mostly tilted toward the dollar “The current calm is likely one coming ahead of a storm – US Retail Sales figures for April are forecast to show another increase in shopping, on which the American economy is centered. While another 9.8% leap is not on the cards, any expansion could reignite the rush toward the dollar.”  “The focus on the consumer continues with the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for May. Economists expect another bump up in confidence. More importantly, investors will eye the inflation expectations components of that publication. Any uptick could also boost the greenback.” “Some support awaits at 1.2075, which was a swing high in early May. It is followed by 1.2055, the weekly trough, and then by 1.2015 and the psychologically significant 1.20.”  “Some resistance is at the recent high of 1.2110, followed by 1.2150, April's peak, and then by the current month's top line of 1.2180.”  

Considering preliminary readings from CME Group for Natural Gas futures markets, open interest reversed two consecutive daily pullbacks and went up by

Considering preliminary readings from CME Group for Natural Gas futures markets, open interest reversed two consecutive daily pullbacks and went up by nearly 6K contracts on Thursday. Volume followed suit and rose by around 28.3K contracts, extending the erratic activity seen as of late. Natural Gas keeps looking to $3.00 Prices of Natural Gas extended the consolidative theme and closed Thursday’s session with decent gains. The move was on the back of rising open interest, which is supportive of further gains in the very near-term. Against this, the $3.00 mark per MMBtu remains the key target on the upside.

USD/CHF stands on the slippery ground while refreshing the intraday low to 0.9045, down 0.15% on a day, as European traders prepare for the bell. The

USD/CHF takes offers, refreshes intraday low following the previous day’s U-turn from six-week-old resistance line.Downward sloping RSI, immediate support line break adds to the bearish impulse.USD/CHF stands on the slippery ground while refreshing the intraday low to 0.9045, down 0.15% on a day, as European traders prepare for the bell. The pair took a U-turn from a downward sloping trend line from April-start recently broke a two-day-old support line. This joins the descending RSI line, not oversold, to keep USD/CHF bears hopeful. While 0.9000 is the closest the short-term sellers can look for, the pair’s further downside depends upon how well it breaks the tops marked during late December and early January close to 0.8910. Meanwhile, recovery moves need not only break the multi-day-old resistance line near 0.9080 but should also cross the 100-SMA level of 0.9100. Additionally, the monthly high near 0.9165 acts as an extra filter to the north. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

CME Group’s flash data for Crude Oil futures markets noted traders trimmed their open interest positions by nearly 8K contracts on Thursday. On the ot

CME Group’s flash data for Crude Oil futures markets noted traders trimmed their open interest positions by nearly 8K contracts on Thursday. On the other hand, volume rose for the fifth consecutive session, now by more than 22K contracts. WTI faces interim support around $60.60 Prices of the West Texas Intermediate receded to multi-day lows on Thursday. The downtick was on the back of shrinking open interest, which should leave the downside somewhat contained in the very near-term. That said, there is an interim support around a Fibo level of the November-March rally in the $60.60 mark per barrel.

Open interest in Gold futures markets from CME Group rose by around 8.2K contracts following two daily pullbacks in a row. Volume, instead, shrunk by

Open interest in Gold futures markets from CME Group rose by around 8.2K contracts following two daily pullbacks in a row. Volume, instead, shrunk by around 106.1K contracts, reversing at the same time two consecutive daily builds. Gold still targets $1,850Gold prices resumed the upside on Thursday amidst rising open interest. That said, the continuation of the rebound appears likely in the very near-term and always with the immediate target at the 200-day SMA, today at $1,847 per ounce troy.

The GBP/USD pair seems to be in a corrective pullback on Friday, having tested multi-month highs at 1.4166 on March 11. The pair follows the previous

GBP/USD consolidates in the early European session.A slight pullback in US Treasury yields undermines the US dollar.US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data eyed.The GBP/USD pair seems to be in a corrective pullback on Friday, having tested multi-month highs at 1.4166 on March 11. The pair follows the previous day's trading trend and confides in a 20-pip movement for the time being. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.4049, down 0.01% on the day. The muted tone surrounding the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback performance against its six major counterparts, keeps the gains limited for the pair as of now. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) readings came in at 0.6% in April, much higher than the market consensus at 0.3%. US Initial jobless claims edged lower to 473k in the previous week, better than the market forecast of 490k and signaling improved labor market conditions. The reading came a day after stronger US inflation data fueled expectations of ending the era of easy monetary policy sooner than expected. However, Fed officials continuously downplayed the inflationary pressure, calling it transitory and would not impact the current Fed measures. This, in turn, keeps investors cautious on any aggressive US dollar buying spree post US inflation data. On the other hand, the UK economy shrank by 1.5% in Q1, the data was well received by the market, as it digested the economic pace despite a coronavirus lockdown. Additionally,  the economy even managed to grow by 2.1% in March, the Office of National Statistics revealed on Wednesday.  Lately, Brexit remains a pain area for the cable, UK condemns EU over Brexit finance ‘threats’ and asks for its resolution in the latest developments. As for now, investors turn their attention to US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data to gain fresh trading impetus.
  GBP/USD Additional levels  

Palladium (XPD/USD) prices pick-up bids around $2,891, up 0.88% intraday, ahead of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the bullion justifies the p

Palladium holds onto previous day’s recovery moves from key SMA, Fibonacci retracement level.Monthly horizontal hurdle, short-term falling trend line test the bulls.Easing bearish bias of MACD backs further upside, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement offers extra support.Palladium (XPD/USD) prices pick-up bids around $2,891, up 0.88% intraday, ahead of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the bullion justifies the previous day’s bounce off 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of April–May upside. Also backing the recovery movement is the receding bearish bias of the MACD. Even so, multiple lows marked since late April around $2,900-901 guard the commodity’s immediate upside. During the quote’s run-up beyond $2,901, a weekly falling trend line near $2,920-21 will be the key as it holds the gate for the pair’s run-up towards the all-time high of $3,020. Meanwhile, 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement, respectively around $2,810 and $2,800 will direct the palladium sellers toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $2,751. It should, however, be noted that the bears will gain strength on the break of $2,751, which in turn could recall the $2,700 threshold back to the chart. Palladium four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 14: Markets remain in a positive mood despite growing inflation concerns. US retail sales and consumer se

Here is what you need to know on Friday, May 14: Markets remain in a positive mood despite growing inflation concerns. US retail sales and consumer sentiment figures are trigger volatility. Bitcoin remains on the back foot while Doge receives a boost from Tesla's Musk. Coronavirus headlines are also eyed.  The US Producer Price Index rose in April by 0.6% monthly, more than expected, and Core PPI also shot higher. Thursday's factory gates data came after Wednesday's consumer figures also beat estimates and sent markets spiraling. However, stocks rebounded on Thursday and the mood remains upbeat on Friday, despite additional signs of wage increases coming from Amazon and MacDonalds. Weekly jobless claims extended their drop, falling to 473,000. The upbeat mood has been weighing on the dollar, allowing EUR/USD to stabilize just under 1.21. and GBP/USD around 1.4050. Gold has also found its feet around $1,820. Retail sales for April are in the spotlight on Friday, with moderate increases on the cards after consumption leaped by 9.8% in March. Investors will be eyeing the Control Group, the "core of the core."  US April Retail Sales Preview: Inflation dynamics to drive USD valuation Later in the day, the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index gauge for May is set to rise from April's 88.3 points, yet remain below pre-pandemic levels. The inflation expectations' components are eyed.  US Michigan Consumer Sentiment May Preview: Jobs are plentiful, inflation is the worryMiddle-East: The violence between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza has been escalating, with growing fears of a ground conflict. Nevertheless, WTI Crude Oil is changing hands at around $63, below the highs.COVID-19: The US Center for Disease Control announced that fully immunized people can abandon face masks and social distancing, an easing that may encourage more Americans to take up the vaccine. The pace has been slowing of late.  Britain is considering accelerating the administration of second doses amid worries that the variant coming from India is spreading quickly in the UK. Over half the population received one dose but only roughly a quarter got two doses. These new worries have cast doubt on the country's reopening. Bitcoin is trading under $50,000, licking its wounds from the news that Binance, a major cryptocurrency exchange, is under investigation by US authorities. The news came after Elon Musk's Tesla said it would discontinue accepting Bitcoin as a means of payment for its electric cars.  On the other hand, DogeCoin has resumed its gains after Musk said he may try to assist developers of the dog-themed digital coin. Ethereum is under $4,000 and XRP below $1.40.  More Inflation and the dollar: Is the connection as direct as it seems?

Friday so far turns out to be a good day for the Asian traders as regional markets rebound ahead of the European session. Among them, Japan’s Nikkei t

Asian equities track their global counterparts as Fed tries to placate bears.Japan leads the run-up, New Zealand bucks the trend.Mixed covid updates, geopolitical fears and light calendar test the bulls.US Retail Sales, virus news and US central bankers’ reaction become the key.Friday so far turns out to be a good day for the Asian traders as regional markets rebound ahead of the European session. Among them, Japan’s Nikkei takes the front seat with over 2.0% gains but New Zealand is an odd one in the lot, despite mild losses. A 14-month low US Jobless Claims joined the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ push for multiple months and more data to assent the reflation fears to help the Wall Street benchmarks print the first positive day of the week on Thursday.  The moves gained extra support from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) mandate suggesting no mask requirement for fully vaccinated people. However, fears that Japan is up for imposing tougher activity restrictions and include more prefectures to battle the coronavirus (COVID-19), coupled with the fears of Indian covid strain, probed the mood earlier in Asia. Also on the risk-negative side were the geopolitical woes in the Middle East as well as the pre-US data caution amid a light calendar in Asia. Amid these plays, MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan follows S&P 500 Futures while flashing above 0.50% intraday gains by the press time. Further, markets in Australia, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea remained nearly 1.0% up whereas shares in China grew around 1.5% on average. It’s worth mentioning that New Zealand’s NZX 50 drops 1.14% while writing as odds of the RBNZ rate hikes in May 2020 jumps to nearly 70%. Additionally, Indian markets remain jittery, mildly bid of late, as the government’s claims of covid recovery gain a few accolades. Amid a light calendar, traders await the US Retail Sales for April, as well as the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May.  Read: S&P 500 Futures keep gains above 4,100, US Retail Sales eyed

USD/INR holds lower ground near the intraday bottom of 73.40, down 0.03%, amid Friday’s initial Indian trading session. In doing so, the Indian rupee

USD/INR attacks range-support comprising 100-day SMA and seven-week-old support line.50-day SMA guards the immediate upside, April’s bottom adds to the downside filters.USD/INR holds lower ground near the intraday bottom of 73.40, down 0.03%, amid Friday’s initial Indian trading session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair maintains the 35-pips weekly trading range. The pair’s latest pullback from the upper-end, including a 50-day SMA level near 73.70, takes clues from the bearish MACD to direct USD/INR sellers toward the range support close to 73.35 that encompasses 100-day SMA and an ascending trend line from late March. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s downside past-73.35, will need validation from April’s low of 73.24 before targeting the 73.00 threshold, not to mention 72.80 and March’s trough close to 72.25. Meanwhile, an upside break of 73.70 will attack the 74.00 round figure before highlighting the 74.30 key hurdle for the USD/INR bulls, including monthly high and mid-April low. In a case where USD/INR bulls remain stronger beyond 74.30, the 75.00 and the yearly peak surrounding 75.65 will be in focus. Overall, USD/INR remains on the bear’s radar but intermediate bounces can’t be ruled out. USD/INR daily chart Trend: Bearish  

EUR/USD picks up bids, firmer for the second consecutive day, around 1.2085 while heading into Friday’s European session. The currency major pair refr

EUR/USD edges higher following the previous day’s bounce off key support line.Fed comments, upbeat US data and CDC mask mandate back risk-on mood amid covid, geopolitical fears.EU-UK tussles continue, Brussels accepts the UK’s lead in recovery.ECB Minutes, US Retail Sales both should be checked for inflation pressure.EUR/USD picks up bids, firmer for the second consecutive day, around 1.2085 while heading into Friday’s European session. The currency major pair refreshed weekly low during early Thursday before bouncing off the key support line near 1.2045, backed by the market’s rethink over the Fed’s tapering. Extending the moves during today’s Asian session are the hopes of upbeat ECB minutes for the April meeting versus cautious sentiment over the US Retail Sales for the said month. EU can ignore inflation fears, for now… Fed policymakers’ demand for multiple months and more data to assent reflation fears favored the market mood the previous day despite the upbeat US Producer Price Index (PPI) for April. Also on the positive, the side was the 14-month low Jobless Claims. At home, the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Yannis Stournaras noted on Thursday that markets show an increase in inflation expectations but added that inflation worries in Europe are not the same as in the US, per Reuters. This helped the regional currency traders to stay optimistic even as recent fears from the prices probes recovery moves. The ECB policymakers are not only less worried about inflation but also hope for a stronger recovery in 2021 and 2022, per the latest economic forecast. Though, the bloc accepts that the pick-up seems to lag behind the UK. Elsewhere, worsening virus conditions in Japan and India offers new challenges of the virus strain, recently convened by the UK. Also on the risk-negative side are the headlines from Gaza and the Brexit chatters that said “the European Union (EU) citizens in the UK are blocked,” per The Guardian. Amid these plays, US bond yields remain pressured while those from Germany hold onto recovery moves from the 26-month low marked the previous day. However, stock futures remain mildly bid following the previous day’s upbeat performance, the first in a week. Going forward, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be the first catalysts to direct EUR/USD moves, other than the risk factor, ahead of the US Retail Sales for April, expected 1.0% versus 9.7% MoM prior. Also in the pipeline are the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, forecast 90.4 versus 88.3. Although the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged in the last two meetings, the tone of the statement and press conference seem to draw a bullish scenario, which if confirmed in today’s ECB minutes, could back EUR/USD bulls. Meanwhile, downbeat US data becomes necessary for the currency pair to remain firm.Technical analysis Sustained bounce off 2.5-month-old ascending support line keeps EUR/USD buyers hopeful to revisit 1.2130 hurdle ahead of challenging the monthly peak near 1.2180. In a case where the quote drops below the stated trend line support, near 1.2060, the 100-day SMA level around 1.2040 and the 1.2000 threshold act as additional downside filters.  

The EUR/GBP cross is gathering momentum in the Asian session after the previous day's showdown. The cross respects the swing lows near 0.8595 and in t

EUR/GBP accumulates gains in the Asain session.More upside envisioned if price breaks above 0.8605.Momentum oscillators trade in oversold trajectory hinting at upside momentum.The EUR/GBP cross is gathering momentum in the Asian session after the previous day's showdown. The cross respects the swing lows near 0.8595 and in the progression to continue in the north. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8603, up 0.10% on the day. EUR/GBP four-hour chart On the four-hour chart, the cross is consolidating near the 0.8595 mark, which coincides with the rising trendline from the lows of 0.8560 on May 12. On moving higher, the first hurdle would appear in the vicinity of Wednesday’s high near 0.8610. A sustained move above the mentioned level would open the gates for 0.8620 and 0.8640 horizontal trendline resistance levels. Alternatively, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in the oversold zone. However, a slight price correction could drag price south toward the 20-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8593. This would also mark a break of the upward sloping line, bringing in the 0.8575 on EUR/GBP bears radars. The next area of support could be seen at the March 26 low at 0.8534.
  EUR/GBP Additional Levels  

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday, the Cabinet has decided to spend JPY512 billion in emergency budget reserve to secure coronavirus v

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Friday, the Cabinet has decided to spend JPY512 billion in emergency budget reserve to secure coronavirus vaccines. However, he added that the Ministry is not considering immediately compiling a new extra budget to respond to the covid crisis. These comments come after Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura unexpectedly announced that the government will declare a state of emergency in three more prefectures hit hard by the pandemic. “Hokkaido, Okayama and Hiroshima will on Sunday join Tokyo, Osaka and four other prefectures under a state of emergency until May 31,” Nishimura said. Market reaction Amid a risk-on market mood, USD/JPY is extending the bounce above 109.50, with the focus shifting towards the critical US consumer data for fresh direction.

"I reiterated that the United States will not leave Australia alone on the field, or maybe I should say alone on the pitch, in the face of economic co

"I reiterated that the United States will not leave Australia alone on the field, or maybe I should say alone on the pitch, in the face of economic coercion by China, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a press conference on Thursday (US time) alongside visiting Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne.   more to come ...

S&P 500 Futures stays firm for the second consecutive day, up 0.30% intraday, while stretching the previous day’s strong recovery moves from early Apr

S&P 500 Futures extend previous day’s recovery from the lowest in six weeks.Fed’s rejection to inflation pick-up, upbeat US data favor risk-on mood.All three Wall Street benchmarks rose for the first time in a week.Covid, geopolitics and pre-US data caution probe the bulls amid a quiet Asian session.S&P 500 Futures stays firm for the second consecutive day, up 0.30% intraday, while stretching the previous day’s strong recovery moves from early April lows during Friday. In doing so, the risk barometer seems to track the Wall Street benchmark that rallied the most in a week, not to forget snapping a three-day downtrend. It should, however, be noted that the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates join geopolitical tension from the Middle East to test the optimism of late. Japan is set to escalate emergency measures and includes additional three prefectures, to already five, amid the latest jump in cases. The Asian major is likely to introduce heightened measures from this Sunday until June 01 and is ready to pull down the officials visiting the Olympics. Elsewhere, the UK is also worried, per the BBC, as cases showing Indian strain of the covid doubled in a week. The same pushed the British Health Minister Matt Hancock to hint at local measures if needed. Talking about Gaza, the US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) sought de-escalation in the Israel-Palestine tussles as the former is likely to have launched troops and air fighters of late. There is likely to be a UN meeting during this weekend over the issue. On Wednesday, US Jobless Claims dropped to the pre-pandemic levels and the Producer Price Index (PPI) came in stronger. However, the Fed policymakers pushed for “multiple months of data” before thinking of any change in easy money actions. Hence, today’s US Retail Sales for April, as well as the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be the key for the markets as any strong outcome may strengthen the reflation fears and weigh on the equities.

The AUD/NZD seesaws in the Asain session on the last trading day of the week. The pair confides in a narrow trading band of 1.0750-1.0770 with modest

AUD/NZD consolidates in the Asian session.Holding onto the 1.0750 key psychological level.Oversold momentum oscillator caution against aggressive bids.The AUD/NZD seesaws in the Asain session on the last trading day of the week. The pair confides in a narrow trading band of 1.0750-1.0770 with modest losses. At the time of writing, the AUD/NZD trades at 1.0762, down 0.07% on the day. AUD/NZD daily chart On the daily chart, the cross has been consolidating near the 1.0750 key psychological mark. On moving higher, the first area of resistance would be the 50-hour Simple Moving  Average (SMA) at 1.0800 followed by May 4 high at 1.0824. The next area of resistance would be the 1.0845 horizontal resistance level. Alternatively, the oversold Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates stretched selling opportunities.  However, any downtick could propel the prevailing downward trend. In doing so, the first stoppage could be the lows of May 7 at 1.0740. Market participants would next be looking out for the 1.0720 horizontal support level followed by monthly lows at 1.0698. AUD/NZD Additional Levels  

The US dollar is moving sideways into the closing sessions for Friday. DXY is trading at 90.73 at the time of writing in a tight 90.7200/8030 range. T

DXY trades flat in sleepy Asian trade and consolidates recent bullish phase. Fed officials are viewing a spike in inflation as transitory. The US dollar is moving sideways into the closing sessions for Friday. DXY is trading at 90.73 at the time of writing in a tight 90.7200/8030 range. There are prospects of a weekly gain, however, as traders price in a faster than expected rise of inflation in contrary to what the Federal Reserve bank might have expected.  This means that there are prospects that the Fed's hand could be forced to hike interest rates sooner. Meanwhile, a strong reading on US wholesale prices and jobless claims on Thursday failed to spark a renewed uptick in Treasury yields, but it did support the greenback.  Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a 14-month low of 473,000. There is a side of the market, however, that believes that the Federal Reserve will stay the course with the lower for longer script with officials viewing a spike in inflation as transitory. In data overnight, the US Producer Price Index climbed 0.6% in April after surging 1.0% in March. In the 12 months through April, the PPI shot up 6.2% which was the highest year-on-year rise since the series was revamped in 2010 and followed a 4.2% jump in March, Reuters reported.       

The AUD/JPY gave up some of its gains after touching multi-year high at 85.82, having rallied from the lows of 82.28 since March 24. The cross moves i

AUD/JPY remains subdued in the Asian session.Cross seeks support near daily lows at 84.54.Momentum oscillator caution for directional bet awaits confirmation.The AUD/JPY gave up some of its gains after touching multi-year high at 85.82, having rallied from the lows of 82.28 since March 24. The cross moves in a very narrow trading range and lacks meaningful price action on Friday for the time being. At the time of writing, AUD/JPY is trading at 84.61, up 0.02% on the day. AUD/JPY daily chart On the daily chart, the cross accumulates in the vicinity of the previous day’s closing at 84.60. The formation of the Doji candlestick points at the indecisive market participants at this juncture.  If price follows the weekly downward momentum, then the first area of support could be the previous day’s low at 84.29. The receding Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator looks for the 84.00 horizontal support level next.  The next area of resistance would be April 26 lows at 83.50. Alternatively, if price reverses, then it could retest the previous day’s high at 84.90 followed by Wednesday’s high of 85.26.  The price action would mark the continuation of the initial uptrend reaching out for the 85.50 horizontal resistance level.
  AUD/JPY Additional Levels  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.4525 vs est 6.4499 and prev 6.4612 About the fix China maintains

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan mid-point at 6.4525 vs est 6.4499 and prev 6.4612 About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. CNY differs from its offshore yuan, or CNH, which is not as tightly controlled as the onshore yuan. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

USD/CAD eases from the immediate trading range’s resistance line, around 1.2165, during the early Friday. The Loonie pair crossed two key ex-support l

USD/CAD wavers inside a choppy range after crossing crucial previous supports.Momentum recovery joins the trend line breakout to keep buyers hopeful.Fresh selling may wait for a clear break below 1.2000 threshold.USD/CAD eases from the immediate trading range’s resistance line, around 1.2165, during the early Friday. The Loonie pair crossed two key ex-support lines, from late January and April respectively, the previous day. Given the daily closing beyond the key hurdles, now supports, taking clues from Momentum uptick, USD/CAD bulls are likely to overcome the adjacent Simple Moving Average (DMA), around 1.2180. The DMA break is likely to extend the recovery moves towards 1.2270 and the monthly top near 1.2350 before highlighting March’s low of 1.2365 as the key resistance. Alternatively, 1.2140 and 1.2100 can test the pair’s fresh downside. However, USD/CAD bears are less likely to be convinced unless witnessing a clear break below the 1.2000 round-figure as multiple levels can entertain sellers around 1.2065 and 1.2050. Overall, USD/CAD is up for a corrective pullback but the bearish trend remains intact. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Further recovery expected  

With the recent jump in inflation data, Goldman Sachs coveyed its Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index) forecasts for April, up for

With the recent jump in inflation data, Goldman Sachs coveyed its Core PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index) forecasts for April, up for publishing on May 28, during the latest report. The US-based bank said to rely on the CPI and PPI figures to anticipate, “ core PCE price index rose 0.52% in April, corresponding to year-over-year rate of +2.80%.” “We expect that headline PCE price index increased 0.49% in April, or increased 3.38% from a year earlier,” said Goldman further. It’s worth mentioning that the Core PCE marched 1.8% forecast in March. Although the Fed looks for multiple months of data to believe in the reflation risk, upticks in the PCE could bolster the risk-off mood on publishing.

AUD/USD battles the 0.7720 key support during early Friday. In doing so, the pair refrains from extending the previous day’s recovery moves while bear

AUD/USD fails to extend previous day’s bounce, stays pressured near intraday low.200-SMA, one-month-old ascending trend line form immediate key support.61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, weekly support line add to the downside filters.50-SMA, near-term resistance line guard recovery moves below 0.7800.AUD/USD battles the 0.7720 key support during early Friday. In doing so, the pair refrains from extending the previous day’s recovery moves while bears attack 200-SMA and an ascending support line from April. Given the bearish MACD and the pair’s inability to cross 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-May upside, AUD/USD becomes liable to break the 0.7720 immediate support. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a bit shorter support line, respectively near 0.7700 and 0.7685, could test the bears before directing them to April’s low surrounding 0.7585. On the flip side, a clear break above 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.7738 should propel the AUD/USD prices towards a confluence of 50-SMA, weekly resistance line and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near 0.7775-80. Overall, AUD/USD stays on the bears’ radar but the bulls aren’t ready to give up easily. AUD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) dipped from previous 9.5% to 9.2% in April

Following the progression of the price action and market structures across the various time frames in GBP/USD, it can be concluded that the bulls are

The daily chart offers compelling upside bias as bears start to run out of juice.Bulls waiting on the sidelines for bullish structure at this juncture.Following the progression of the price action and market structures across the various time frames in GBP/USD, it can be concluded that the bulls are now in the most favourable position. As per the prior analysis, whereby the bears were taking up control, the price did indeed melt to the downside as forecasted. Prior analysis, hourly chart'Should the price drift higher without leaving multiple bottoms on an hourly basis, there could be prospects of sellers taking back control from resistance. Sellers would seek to break the hourly lows which would result in a bearish continuation towards the 50% mean reversion of the prior daily bullish impulse.'Tracking price action on the hourly charts New York price action, above, shows the price deterioration into demand territory, as forecasted.  We have seen demand come in again in more recent trade as follows: In Asia, the price is testing the bullish commitments and there are prospects of a higher low which would be a bullish scenario.  Indeed, the bulls are now stepping back in and the daily conditions have ripened for a bullish advance but the price is so far contained by a build-up of lower time frame resistance.  Daily chart 4-hour chart Nevertheless, the 4-hour chart is forming a bullish reverse head and shoulders formation and on completion, the bullish price action could well burst into life.  The right-hand shoulder of the bullish reverse head and shoulders is in the process of being formed.  Bulls will want to see the price break the prior highs within this formation and hope for a discount on a retest of the structure before committing to the bullish thesis. 

USD/JPY takes the bids around 109.60, up 0.10% intraday, as Tokyo welcomes the risk-on mood, despite coronavirus (COVID-19) at home, on Friday. The un

USD/JPY reverses the pullback from five-week top, refreshes intraday high.Market sentiment buoyed after US Jobless Claims, Fed comments rejecting policy alteration.Japan to escalate emergency measures in five prefectures, US CDC allows no mask for fully vaccinated people.US Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be eyed.USD/JPY takes the bids around 109.60, up 0.10% intraday, as Tokyo welcomes the risk-on mood, despite coronavirus (COVID-19) at home, on Friday. The underlying sentiment could be traced to the US CDC update and the receding odds of the Fed’s immediate policy action. During the early Asian session, Japan’s Kyodo News conveyed nearly certain government plans to impose tougher restrictions under a quasi-state of emergency in five more prefectures amid growing calls for quicker response to an increasing number of infections caused by highly contagious variants of the coronavirus. Further, the Yoshihide Suga-led government also reduces the number of visiting officials to this summer's games to 90,000 or fewer, per the news. Alternatively, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) pushes for no mask-mandate for fully vaccinated people, which in turn strengthened the market optimism initially backed by 14-month high US Jobless Claims. Also on the risk-positive side were the comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rejecting the need for policy alteration unless witnessing “several more months of data”. Other than the US and Japan updates, fears of the India strain of the covid and geopolitical tussles in the Middle East also try to recall the market bears but fail of late. As a result, S&P 500 Futures rises 0.20% tracking Wall Street benchmarks whereas the US 10-year Treasury yield stays pressured around 1.66% after declining 4.4 basis points (bps) the previous day. Further, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises 1.3% by the press time. While risk catalysts, mainly the virus updates, keep the driver’s seat, the US Retail Sales for April, as well as the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will be the key data to watch for near-term USD/JPY moves. Technical analysis USD/JPY teases confirmation of a short-term falling wedge bullish chart pattern, which in turn could recall the 110.00 threshold on the chart. Meanwhile, 109.40 restricts the quote’s immediate declines.  

GBP/JPY holds onto recovery gains around intraday high. US CDC updates mask mandate for fully vaccinated people. UK turns cautious over covid passpor

GBP/JPY holds onto recovery gains around intraday high.US CDC updates mask mandate for fully vaccinated people.UK turns cautious over covid passport, unlock amid Indian variant spread, Japan eyes stringent emergency rules.Risk catalysts become the key amid a light calendar in Asia.GBP/JPY reverses the previous day’s losses, recently picking up bids near 153.85, during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote takes clues from the risk-on mood while paying a little heed to the downbeat coronavirus (COVID-19) updates from the UK and Japan. A doubling of the Indian strain of covid in a week recently troubled the British policymakers. “Local and regional restrictions to tackle the Indian Covid variant cannot be ruled out,” said the UK government, per BBC during its late Thursday news. In a separate report, the UK Telegraph mentioned Britain scaling back the covid passport plans amid ministers’ questions on the health benefits it will offer. On the other hand, Japan’s little success in taming the deadly virus spread at home pushes the government to introduce more stringent coronavirus restrictions in 5 more prefectures. Details shared by Kyodo News mentioned the new measures could come into effect from May 16 and will remain active until June 01. It’s worth mentioning that the Middle East tensions also probe the risk-on mood. Alternatively, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) push for no mask-mandate for fully vaccinated people, which in turn helped trading sentiment to extend the previous day’s optimism. The markets turned positive on Thursday after the US Jobless Claims dropped to the pre-pandemic levels, defying the woes portrayed earlier by the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Also on the positive side were comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) officials shrugging off reflation woes while also praising the economic recovery moves. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures is up 0.20% after all the three Wall Street benchmarks closed in positive for the first time in a week the previous day. That said, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 1.8% by the press time. Given the lack of major data/events in both Japan and the UK, GBP/JPY traders will keep their eyes on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse. Technical analysis Although the 154.00 threshold and the recent high around 154.50 guards short-term GBP/JPY upside, the previous resistance line from April 20 near 153.15 holds the gate for sellers’ entry.  

EUR/USD fades the previous day’s bounce off 1.2060-55 support confluence while easing to 1.2078 amid early Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the qu

EUR/USD edges lower inside a bearish chart pattern.MACD also teases sellers but key EMAs add to downside filters.Bulls have a bumpy road to recovery, 1.2200 becomes crucial resistance.EUR/USD fades the previous day’s bounce off 1.2060-55 support confluence while easing to 1.2078 amid early Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the quote nears the support line of a two-month-old rising wedge bearish formation, also joined by the 21-day EMA. It should, however, be noted that the MACD teases bears to break the nearly 1.2060-55 convergence but the 50-day EMA surrounding 1.2015, followed by the 1.2000 threshold could challenges the EUR/USD bears afterward. In a case where sellers dominate past-1.2000, odds of the pair’s drop to the yearly low of 1.1700 can’t be ruled out. Though, 1.1850-45 can offer an intermediate halt during the fall. Meanwhile, corrective pullback needs to cross the 1.2100 nearby hurdles before eyeing the multiple resistance area near 1.2200, not to forget the wedge’s upper line near 1.2210. If at all EUR/USD bulls manage to cross the 1.2210 hurdle, February’s peak near 1.2245 can act as a buffer before pushing the pair towards the yearly top of 1.2350. EUR/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

West Texas Intermediate trading at $63.84 and flat on the day so far as traders take into account India's coronavirus crisis which helped to shave aro

WTI was under pressure but there is a compelling case for a deeper test of resistance.The bulls will seek a break of the 10-day ema and confluence of resistance. West Texas Intermediate trading at $63.84 and flat on the day so far as traders take into account India's coronavirus crisis which helped to shave around 3% off the price of crude oil on Thursday. Meanwhile, WTI futures settled $2.26, or 3.4%, lower at $63.82 a barrel, having risen 1.2% in the previous session and the spot fell from $65.79 to a low of $63.12. Brent crude also ended the session down $2.27, or 3.3%, at $67.05 a barrel, after rising 1% on Wednesday. These moves have resulted in the biggest daily drops in percentage terms since early April. The variant of the coronavirus has swept through India, the world's third-biggest importer of crude at a time when the US dollar has turned bid again. ''India's infection curve is also pointing to nascent signs of flattening, which could ease demand fears and help boost sentiment in the energy complex,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''In this context, while OPEC+ may continue to unwind their extraordinary supply curtailments, a continued cautious approach could still see prices overshoot for a period of time. However, the massive scale of OPEC's spare capacity suggests that a break north of $70/bbl is not sustainable.'' As for the greenback, the labour shortage and much stronger-than-expected consumer prices data this week have fanned the flames of concerns for inflation. Foreign oil traders fear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates fuelling a bid in the greenback which in turn makes oil less attractive as an investment.  WTI technical analysis Technically, the price is correcting the daily bearish impulse on the 4-hour time frame albeit within bearish territory given the 10 and 20 EMA bearish crossover and negative MACD. Sellers may emerge for the end of the week sessions below the 10-EMA to push the price below the prior daily closing lows of 64.48. On the upside, the bulls will need to clear the daily resistance and neckline of the daily M-formation located at 64.84. In turn, the price will be above the 10-day EMA within bullish 4-hour conditions as well.  Daily chart
 

Precious metals were higher on Thursday and silver, as measured by XAU/USD spot, ended higher by over 0.25% after rallying from a low of $26.72 to sco

XAG/USD is attempting the upside despite a solid greenback.The M-formation is compelling for an upside test of the neckline.Precious metals were higher on Thursday and silver, as measured by XAU/USD spot,  ended higher by over 0.25% after rallying from a low of $26.72 to score a high of $27.24. Its sister metal, gold, was strong, however. The gold to silver ratio was higher by 0.34% though as gold remains the bull’s preferred hedge to inflationary concerns.  The market is fixated on inflationary pressures and the velocity of the US dollar which has benefitted from both good data and nerves that the Fed will be forced to act sooner than telegraph due to higher inflation. With new applications for unemployment insurance continuing to fall, according to jobless claims data from the Labor Department that hit a 14-month low, the greenback is taking the lead in the G10 space. Coupled with the positive data, the last two days of economic data has prompted inflation fears as a scarcity of materials and workers threatens to send prices surging. Silver technical analysis Silver broke the 10 and 20 EMAs on the hourly time frame to take on the 4-hour 10 EMA. Daily chart, M-formation The daily picture sees the price attempting to complete the M-formation at the neckline of the pattern in the day’s highs. However, there is still room to move higher in the resistance structure for a fuller test of the neckline around 27.30.  A break there will make way for a continuation to the upside for a higher high and fresh daily bullish impulse. 

NZD/USD eases from intraday top to 0.7183 following sentiment data from New Zealand amid the initial Asian session on Friday. Even so, the quote remai

NZD/USD edges higher following the previous day’s recovery from one-week low.NZ Business PSI drops to 58.4 in April.Geopolitics, covid updates troubles traders ahead of the key US Retail Sales.NZD/USD eases from intraday top to 0.7183 following sentiment data from New Zealand amid the initial Asian session on Friday. Even so, the quote remains mildly bid daily while jostling with mixed catalysts. New Zealand’s Business NZ PMI eased from 63.6 prior to 58.4 in April. Although being a second-tier data, the latest economics probe doubts over the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate hike chatters, recently backed by the ANZ report stating 70% odds favoring such a move by next May. Elsewhere, Israel-Palestine tussles in Gaza escalates and the US Representative for the United Nations (UN) pushes for a meet on Sunday to tame the woes. Alternatively, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) push for no mask-mandate for fully vaccinated people. It’s worth mentioning that the US Jobless Claims’ slump to a 14-month low renewed market optimism the previous day, despite strong Producer Price Index (PPI) challenged the bulls. Amid these plays, all three Wall Street benchmarks closed positive the first time in a week while the US 10-year Treasury yields eased 4.4 basis points (bps) to 1.64% by the end of Thursday’s US session. However, S&P 500 Futures stays pressured following that amid fresh hurdles for the risk-on mood. Moving on, cautious sentiment is likely to weigh on the market’s mood as traders await the US Retail Sales for April, as well as the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Given the Fed’s strong defense to easy money policy, not to forget the push for more signals to confirm reflation risk, each incoming American figure will be crucial for the market direction. Technical analysis 50-day SMA and an ascending trend line from early April, respectively around 0.7135 and 0.7170, defend NZD/USD bulls. However, a 21-day SMA near 0.7205 guards the pair’s immediate upside.  

Thursday turned out to be the much-awaited good day for the US equity markets after Jobless Claims dropped to a 14-month low. Also favoring the market

All three Wall Street benchmarks closed positive for the first time in the week.Strong US Jobless Claims tamed US PPI woes, Fed comments, covid restriction updates in the US also favored bulls.DJI30 jumped over 400 points, S&P 500 gained +2.0% daily.US Retail Sales become the key amid inflation anxiety.Thursday turned out to be the much-awaited good day for the US equity markets after Jobless Claims dropped to a 14-month low. Also favoring the market sentiment were comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and the US CDC comments over mask mandate. In doing so, the bulls battle reflation woes backed by strong PPI figures ahead of the key US Retail Sales data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended on May 07 slipped beneath 490K forecast versus 473K previous readouts while testing the pre-pandemic low. On the other hand, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April rose past 4.2% prior and 5.9% expected to 6.2% YoY. Following the data, a slew of Fed policymakers rushed to highlight the jump in jobs report after last Friday’s NFP debacle. The US central bank members also signaled that “several more months of data” are required to confirm changes to the Fed’s policies. It’s worth mentioning that growth stocks were a bit jittery and Tesla bears the burden of its seesaw on cryptocurrencies while prices of Home Depot gained. Against this backdrop, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained 1.3% or 433.79 points to mark its first positive day of the week by closing around 34,021.45. Further, the S&P 500 added 49.46 points or 1.2% to end the day near 4,112.50 while the Nasdaq finished the day’s trading at 13,124.99, up 0.7% or 93.31 points. Elsewhere, WTI dropped on Colonial Pipeline restart while gold recovered. Further, the US dollar index (DXY) eased amid downbeat Treasury yields. Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on the US Retail Sales for April, expected 1.0% versus 9.7% prior, as well as the preliminary readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May, forecast 90.4 compared to 89.3 previous readouts. Although the consumer-centric figures are likely to remain firm, the Fed’s defense to easy money will be the key.

New Zealand Business NZ PMI down to 58.4 in April from previous 63.6

Early Friday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the news quoting Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay and President Tayyip Erdogan while signaling th

Early Friday morning in Asia, Reuters came out with the news quoting Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay and President Tayyip Erdogan while signaling the nation’s push for the Islamist community to take a clear stance over Gaza. “At least 67 people have been killed in Gaza since violence escalated on Monday, according to the enclave's health ministry. Seven people have been killed in Israel,” medical officials said, per the news. Turkey Vice President Oktay said, “Muslim countries must show a united and clear stance over Israel’s conflict with the Islamist Hamas movement in Gaza.” He further added, “What we desire is that active measures are taken.” The piece also reiterates the previous comments from President Erdogan condemning Israel's occupation of the West Bank and its treatment of Palestinians. Elsewhere, local media from the Middle East convey that Israel is using ground troops, tanks and some of the air artilleries on the battleground of Gaza. Market reaction… Following the news, WTI picks up bids towards regaining the $64.00. The move could also be termed as a consolidation after the heaviest drop since early April.

Chile BCCH Interest Rate unchanged at 0.5% in May

“Local and regional restrictions to tackle the Indian Covid variant cannot be ruled out,” said the UK government, per BBC during its late Thursday new

“Local and regional restrictions to tackle the Indian Covid variant cannot be ruled out,” said the UK government, per BBC during its late Thursday news. The piece cites doubling of the Indian variant of covid in a week with Thursday’s 1,313 cases, versus 520 up to the previous Wednesday. “Surge testing is already taking place in 15 areas across England. This is when increased testing and enhanced contact tracing is carried out in very specific locations to prevent the spread of outbreaks,” said the BBC. The news also quotes UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock as saying, “We are monitoring the situation very carefully and will not hesitate to take further action if necessary.” In a separate report, the UK Telegraph mentioned Britain scaling back the covid passport plans amid ministers’ questions on the health benefits it will offer. Market reaction Following the downbeat news, GBP/USD fades recovery moves around mid-1.4000s while searching for fresh clues amid a light calendar and thin feeds in Friday’s early Asian session.

AUD/USD consolidates losses from a one-week low, following a volatile day that initially refreshed weekly bottom, taking rounds to 0.7730 at the start

AUD/USD struggles to keep recovery moves from eight-day bottom.Market sentiment improves on upbeat US jobs data, Fed comments.Covid woes, vaccine jitters join tension in the Middle East to test bulls amid a light calendar.US Retail Sales becomes the key data to watch.AUD/USD consolidates losses from a one-week low, following a volatile day that initially refreshed weekly bottom, taking rounds to 0.7730 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. Although challenges to easy money and an absence of fresh catalysts, coupled with Gaza tension, weighed on the Aussie pair initially on Wednesday, upbeat US Jobless Claims and the Fed policymakers’ comments testing the reflation fears recalled the bulls. It should, however, be noted that the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates have been grim of late and recently test the corrective pullback. Bulls and bears jostle amid mixed clues… Despite the strong US Producer Price Index (PPI) confirmed challenges for easy money, a 14-month low US Jobless Claims pleased traders. Also on the risk-positive side were the comments from the Fed policymakers who signaled the need for more sustained information to confirm the inflation pressure on the economy. At home, Fitch reiterated its support to Australia’s ‘AAA’ credit rating amid an upbeat budget. Elsewhere, Israel-Palestine tussles escalate in Gaza whereas the BBC reports the UK Government’s ‘concern’ at speed of growth in Indian covid variant. It’s worth mentioning that off in multiple global markets and the market’s wait for today’s US Retail Sales for April, expected 1% MoM versus 9.7% prior, seem to test the trading sentiment as well. Amid these plays, Wall Street benchmarks bucked the three-day downtrend while the US 10-year Treasury yields dropped 4.4 basis points (bps) to 1.65% at the end of Thursday’s North American session. Moving on, a thin presence of the local factors may keep AUD/USD rangebound, also the cautious sentiment ahead of the US Retail Sales. However, risk catalysts remain on the driver’s seat with any more support reflation chatters likely weighing on the Aussie pair. Read: US April Retail Sales Preview: Inflation dynamics to drive USD valuation Technical analysis AUD/USD recovery remains doubtful unless crossing the 0.7820 hurdle. Meanwhile, multiple lows marked since March highlight 0.7695-90 as the key support.  

South Korea Import Price Growth (YoY) increased to 15% in April from previous 9%

South Korea Export Price Growth (YoY) increased to 10.6% in April from previous 5.6%

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