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อังคาร, พฤศจิกายน 12, 2019

The US Dollar is up significantly against Latin American currencies on Tuesday, with the Chilean peso leading losses and trading at record low levels.

Latin American currencies are the worst performers. The bearish trend intensifies amid turmoil in the region. The US Dollar is up significantly against Latin American currencies on Tuesday, with the Chilean peso leading losses and trading at record low levels. The USD/CLP reached earlier today 800 for the first time, before pulling back to 782.00. Equity prices in Chile fell to the lowest levels in more than two years as protests in the streets continue.  The greenback rose today more than 3% in Chile and is up by more than 10% over the last thirty days. In Colombia, it gains today 1.60%, with the USD/COP trading at 3,390  the highest in a week.  Global financial markets show low volatility on Tuesday as traders now await a speech from US President Trump Economic Club of New York. The outlook in Latin America worsened over the last hours following the resignation under pressure from riots in the streets and the military on Sunday of Evo Morales. There appears to be no bright spot in the region. Weeks ago, Peruvian President closed the Parliament; in Argentina the economic crisis intensified after Peronist Fernández won the presidential elections; Venezuela remains in economic chaos and in Brazil, former President Lula was released from prison creating a more complex political environment.   Mexican peso slides but remains in recent range  The USD/MXM is rising on Tuesday, trading slightly below 19.20 and close to the upper limit of the current consolidation range that has been in place since mid-October. The critical support of the range is the 19.00 zone. The Mexican peso remains steady in the mentioned area, unaffected so far from the Latin American crisis and ahead of the Bank of Mexico meeting on Thursday.   

Previewing Wednesday's inflation report from the United States, "We look for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October (0.3% m/m),

Previewing Wednesday's inflation report from the United States, "We look for headline inflation to remain unchanged at 1.7% y/y in October (0.3% m/m), partly aided by an increase in energy prices," said TD Securities analysts. Key quotes "In effect, we expect a 1% jump in gasoline prices to support inflation in the non-core segment." "Conversely, core inflation should decline a tenth to 2.3% y/y, reflecting a 0.2% m/m advance. We expect core goods inflation to recover m/m, but for core services inflation to slow moderately to 0.2% m/m after four straight increases at 0.3%. We anticipate OER to advance at 0.2% m/m, following a 0.3% monthly gain, and also for the ex-shelter segment to slow modestly on a monthly basis."

The Euro, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below the main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). The Fiber remains soft on the second day of the wee

EUR/USD is drifting down in the New York session.The level to beat for sellers is the 1.0995 support level.  EUR/USD daily chart   The Euro, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below the main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). The Fiber remains soft on the second day of the week.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   The market is breaking below the 1.1016 support level. The bear move can extend towards the 1.0995, 1.0965 and 1.0920 support levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    EUR/USD 30-minute chart   EUR/USD is trading below the main SMAs, suggesting a bearish bias in the near term. Resistance is seen at the 1.1016, 1.1033, 1.1056 and 1.1079 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.       Additional key levels  

Wall Street's main indexes edged higher after the opening bell on Tuesday as investors are waiting for President Donald Trump to deliver his remarks a

All 11-major S&P 500 sectors are in positive territory in early trade.US President Donald Trump's speech in New York is awaited.Wall Street's main indexes edged higher after the opening bell on Tuesday as investors are waiting for President Donald Trump to deliver his remarks at the Economic Club of New York luncheon. Citing a source familiar with President Trump's prepared remarks, Politico earlier today reported that Trump was expected to deliver a "constructive statement" on China. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.23% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were both adding 0.5% and flirting with all-time highs.  Reflecting the upbeat tone, all 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 are in the positive territory with the Energy Index and Materials Index leading the rally.

Analysts at TD Securities highlight that the inherent unpredictability of UK politics will keep markets from fully embracing a solid Tory majority...

Analysts at TD Securities highlight that the inherent unpredictability of UK politics will keep markets from fully embracing a solid Tory majority before the vote, but a lack of surprises would see confidence grow that Johnson would return as PM. Key quotes "Unless something changes abruptly over the next several weeks, this improved outlook provides a crucial underpinning for sentiment in rates and FX markets. That, in our view, suggests GBP should trade with a fairly solid 'floor' under it into election day - at least in most of the scenarios that we outline below." "As a result, we expect cable to remain largely rangebound ahead of the vote. Within the larger 1.2705/1.3185 range, we think the 1.2770/1.3015 interval should form its core." "We think that the rates market is less likely than FX markets to read much into these small poll deviations at this stage. GBP rates seem biased towards a Conservative win at these elections."

Data released today showed the Small Business Optimism Index rose modestly to 102.4. Analyst at Well Fargo, point out the index remains close to its c

Data released today showed the Small Business Optimism Index rose modestly to 102.4. Analyst at Well Fargo, point out the index remains close to its cycle high and noted most key components rose, including capital spending plans and hiring plans.  Key Quotes:  “Small business owners continue to express a high degree of confidence in overall economic conditions and the outlook for their business.” “Relief that a truce in the trade war may be at hand is likely boosting confidence.” “Small business owners today are also more upbeat about capital spending than larger businesses are, a finding we saw in our own small business survey.” “Hiring plans inched one point higher to 18% but remains off its recent high. Firms are having a tough time filling openings.”

Today has been a mixed day for cable as earlier on we recieved varied emplyment data. The data showed average wage increases miss expectations and the

GBP/USD is current trading in a bull flag formation and trades 0.05% lower.Today Trump is due to give a speech which could inspire some volatility.Today has been a mixed day for cable as earlier on we recieved varied emplyment data. The data showed average wage increases miss expectations and the UK employment level fell at its fast rate in four years. GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart GBP/USD has entered a consolidation phase as the markets wait for more general election news or news on the trade war front. The direction break of this pattern could be very important in moving forward. We currently find that GBP is holding up slight between than the rest of the majors against the greenback. Support levels remain at the low of the pattern and 1.2767. On the topside resistance is at 1.2898 and 1.3013. Additional Levels  

USD/JPY is trading just above the 109.00 handle and the 200-day simple moving average (DMA) on the daily time frame. In September and November, the spot has be

USD/JPY is looking for a clear direction while trading near the 109.00 figure and 200 DMA. Support is seen at the 109.03 and 108.75 price levels.   USD/JPY daily chart   USD/JPY is trading just above the 109.00 handle and the 200-day simple moving average (DMA) on the daily time frame. In September and November, the spot has been gaining considerable strength.     USD/JPY four-hour chart   Dollar/Yen is trading above its main SMAs on the four-hour chart, suggesting a bullish momentum in the medium term. The market is battling for the 109.00 handle. A daily break above the 109.32/49 price zone can lead to an acceleration towards the 109.77 and 110.34 price levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.      USD/JPY 30-minute chart   USD/JPY is reversing its previous intraday gains as the market is nearing the 109.03 support. Further down lie the 108.75, 108.47 and 107.93 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. The outlook in the near term seem to be neutral to bearish.    Additional key levels  

The greenback keeps the bid tone unchanged on Tuesday and is now trading around 98.30 when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Dollar Index bid

DXY clings to gains around 98.30.US 10-year yields recede from recent tops.Attention is now on Trump and trade.The greenback keeps the bid tone unchanged on Tuesday and is now trading around 98.30 when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Dollar Index bid ahead of Trump The index has regained the upside so far on Tuesday, leaving behind Monday’s negative price action and once again testing recent tops in the 98.40 region, although a breakout of this area still remains elusive. In the meantime, the focus of attention is now on the speech by President Trump later in the day, where he is expected to shed further details on the progress (or lack of it) of the ‘Phase One’ deal with China amidst speculations on the probable roll over of part of the existing tariffs. In addition, President Trump could also comment on the most likely delay (of 6 months) in the imposition of US tariffs on imports of European cars and autoparts. In the docket, the NFIB index surprised markets to the upside advancing to 102.4 during October, also up from September’s 101.8. On Wednesday, Chief Powell will testify before the Senate and US inflation figures for the month of October will be in centre stage. What to look for around USD DXY came under selling pressure after hitting multi-week highs in the 98.40 region on Friday. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade war should remain ruling the global sentiment, while the attention has now shifted to Trump’s speech later today and any remarks on the ‘Phase One’ deal. Later in the week, key data and Powell’s testimony should also help with the direction of the buck. On the broader view, the outlook on the greenback appears constructive on the back of the Fed’s renewed ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.09% at 98.30 and a break above 98.40 (monthly high Nov.8/12) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 97.93 (100-day SMA) seconded by 97.52 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

A poll by Survation has shown the narrowest gap yet between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour. The survey, conducted between Novembe

A poll by Survation has shown the narrowest gap yet between the ruling Conservative Party and opposition Labour. The survey, conducted between November 6-8, is showing an increase of three points for the left-wing challengers to 29% and a minor rise of one point for the Tories to 35%.  Voters are moving into mainstream parties and out of the staunchly pro-Remain Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party, which both shed 2 points. It is important to note that Survations fieldwork came before Nigel Farage's withdrawal of more than half the candidates. The leader of the right-wing outfit wants to raise the chances that Prime Minister Boris Johnson is returned to Downing Street. His announcement sent sterling higher, but his refusal to drop out of marginal seats has kept cable from extending its gains. The gap of only six points is the lowest in any poll so far and is adverse for GBP/USD. Investors prefer a solid majority for Johnson that would allow him to ratify the Brexit accord and enact maket-friendly policies. The pound has yet to respond to the new poll. 

German stocks are trading mostly in the positive territory on Tuesday, motivating the DAX to post gains for the first time after two consecutive daily

The German benchmark resumes the upside near 13,270.President Trump could delay auto tariffs today.German Economic Sentiment improved in November.German stocks are trading mostly in the positive territory on Tuesday, motivating the DAX to post gains for the first time after two consecutive daily pullbacks and return to levels close to 22-month tops recorded last week at 13,300.76. DAX now looks to Trump, trade The renewed upbeat sentiment around the US-China trade front echoed today in the risk-associated universe and pushed the index back to the black figures. In this regard, investors will be closely following the speech by President Trump later in the European evening, with the ‘Phase One’ deal on top of the agenda. In addition, Trump could delay US tariffs on the imports of EU cars and auto-parts for an extra 6-months, all collaborating with the upbeat mood in the European stock index. Also propping up the mood, stocks have also cheered the improvement in the Economic Sentiment in November, as per the latest ZEW survey. The DAX is expected to meet the initial resistance at 13,300.76 (2019 high Nov.7) seconded by 13,596.40 (all-time high recorded in January 2018). On the flip side, initial support aligns at the 10-day SMA at 13,119.15 seconded by the 21-day SMA at 12,939.41.

The USD/CHF pair trimmed a part of its early gains but has still managed to hold with modest daily gains around mid-0.9900s. The pair managed to regai

Renewed USD buying interest helped the pair to regain positive traction.The cautious mood seemed to cap further gains ahead of Trump’s speech.The USD/CHF pair trimmed a part of its early gains but has still managed to hold with modest daily gains around mid-0.9900s.
 
The pair managed to regain some positive traction on Tuesday and recovered a major part of the overnight sharp intraday pullback from near four-week lows, albeit continued with its struggle to find acceptance or extend the momentum further beyond the very important 200-day SMA. Focus remains on trade developments Some renewed US Dollar buying interest was seen as one of the key factors fueling the pair's intraday positive momentum. However, the prevalent cautious mood underpinned demand for traditional safe-haven currencies – including the Swiss Franc – and capped any additional gains.
 
Investors remained cautious after the US President Donald Trump said that reports to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods as a part of the trade deal were “incorrect.” Hence, the key focus will be on Trump’s appearance at the New York Economic Club later this Tuesday.
 
In absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the incoming trade-related headlines might continue to influence the USD price dynamics, which coupled with the broader market risk sentiment might contribute towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities.
 
Moving ahead, this week's other US macroeconomic releases, including the latest consumer inflation figures and monthly retail sales data, along with the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony on Wednesday and Thursday will now be looked upon for a fresh directional impetus. Technical levels to watch  

In an interview with Boersen Zeitung, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, acknowledged that inflation expectations have rece

In an interview with Boersen Zeitung, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the European Central Bank, acknowledged that inflation expectations have recently shown a marked decline but added that they have not yet become 'de-anchored.' "We are well aware of side effects of our monetary policy, will hold side effects up to even closer scrutiny in future," De Guinods further noted. " Adopting the September policy package was and remains absolutely right decision." The EUR/USD pair largely ignored these comments and was last down 0.1% on the day at 1.1020.

As the Fed paused on interest rate cuts and the US and China seem to be getting on better in regards to trade. Gold has taken a hit since September. T

A close lower today could mean a four-day losing streak for the precious metal.XAU/USD trades 0.23% lower today as USD 1450/oz is holding as support.Gold Daily Chart As the Fed paused on interest rate cuts and the US and China seem to be getting on better in regards to trade. Gold has taken a hit since September. The triangle on the daily chart broke lower recently and there are a few scenarios that would play out. It is very common for an asset to retest the pattern once it is broken. This would take a bout of risk-off sentiment but this doesn't seem likely right now. The other is for the price to break lower and test the next distribution between USD 1380 - 1430 per ounce. The speech today in New York by Donald Trump could inspire such volatility. Unfortunately, this does make today's price action a binary event. Additional Levels  

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the stance on NZD/USD remains bearish and the door stays open for a move to the 0.6300 region in the next we

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the stance on NZD/USD remains bearish and the door stays open for a move to the 0.6300 region in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectation for the weakness in NZD to “extend lower” was incorrect as it rebounded to a high of 0.6372. While downward pressure has dissipated, the current movement is viewed as part of consolidation phase and not the start of a sustained recovery. In other words, NZD is expected to trade sideways for today, likely between 0.6340 and 0.6390”. Next 1-3 weeks: “While we held the view that a “short-term top is in place” and NZD is likely to “trade sideways” since last Tuesday, we highlighted on Thursday (07 Nov, spot at 0.6365) that “if NZD were to close below the bottom of the expected 0.6350/0.6450 range”, it would “increase risk of a pull-back to 0.6300”. NZD dropped to 0.6323 last Friday before ending the day at 0.6328 (-0.65%). In other words, instead of trading sideways, NZD is now expected to trade with a downward bias towards 0.6300. At this stage, the prospect for a sustained decline below this level is not high (there is another support at 0.6285). On the upside, only a move above 0.6400 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that current downward bias has eased”.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) down to 5% in November 8 from previous 5.5%

United States Redbook Index (MoM) declined to 0.1% in November 8 from previous 0.3%

The USD/CAD pair gained some follow-through traction and climbed to one-month tops, around the 1.3255 region during the mid-European session on Tuesda

Positive Oil prices underpinned the Loonie and capped the upside.Technical set-up support prospects for a meaningful dip-buying.The USD/CAD pair gained some follow-through traction and climbed to one-month tops, around the 1.3255 region during the mid-European session on Tuesday, albeit retreated few pips thereafter.
 
Last week's sustained breakthrough 100-day SMA barrier near the 1.3200 handle was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and remained supportive of the move but lacked any strong conviction.
 
The prevalent positive mood around oil prices underpinned demand for the commodity-linked currency – Loonie and turned out to be one of the key factors keeping a lid on any subsequent strength.
 
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and maintained their bullish bias on the 4-hourly chart, supporting prospects for some dip-buying.
 
Hence, any meaningful pullback might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate some fresh bullish positions and help limit the downside near 100-day SMA, around the 1.3200 round-figure mark.
 
On the upside, the very important 200-day SMA, near the 1.3280 region, now seems to act as an immediate resistance, above which the pair is likely to aim towards the 1.3330-35 supply zone. USD/CAD daily chart  

The crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently holding above $57.00 a barrel and below the 200-day simple moving average (DMA). The market has been c

Crude oil remains undecided where to go next on the second day of the week. The level to beat for bulls is the 57.50 resistance.  Crude oil daily chart   The crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is currently holding above $57.00 a barrel and below the 200-day simple moving average (DMA). The market has been consolidating for more than a week.      Crude oil four-hour chart   WTI is trading above the main SMAs, keeping the bullish momentum intact above the 56.00 support level. Buyers are likely looking for a daily breakout above the 57.50 level to travel north towards the 58.00, 59.00 and 60.00 price levels.   Crude oil 30-minute chart   The market remains sidelined around the 57.00 handle, currently above the main SMAs. Support is seen at the 57.00 level followed by 56.40 and the 56.00 figure.     Additional key levels  

Following last week's impressive rally, crude oil prices staged a technical correction on Monday before going into a consolidation phase on Tuesday. A

US Pres. Trump is expected to deliver remarks on US-China trade conflict.China's Premier Li voices commitment to support growth.Coming up: Weekly crude oil stock reports by API and EIA.Following last week's impressive rally, crude oil prices staged a technical correction on Monday before going into a consolidation phase on Tuesday. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading near the $57 handle, adding 0.15% on a daily basis. Trade headlines to continue to drive crude oil prices Heightened hopes of the United States and China rolling back tariffs as part of the phase-one of the trade deal eased concerns over a global economic slowdown and its potential negative impact on the energy demand outlook and provided the fuel to last week's rally. Additionally, several OPEC officials hinted at the possibility of OPEC+ introducing additional output cuts at the meeting in December to support the price upsurge. However, after US President Donald Trump on Friday said that he hasn't yet agreed to a reduction of tariffs, investors took a step back to wait for the next significant development. Later in the session, President Trump will be speaking at a luncheon organized by the Economic Club of New York and is expected to comment on the trade dispute with China. Earlier in the day, China’s Premier Li Keqiang voiced their commitment to strengthen support to the real economy but these comments had little to no impact on the market sentiment.  Later in the week, the American Petroleum's (API) and the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) crude oil stock report, on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, will be watched closely by the market participants. Technical levels to watch for  

The GBP/USD pair extended previous session's pullback from the 1.2900 neighbourhood and witnessed some follow-through selling on Tuesday. The pair, ho

The pair extended overnight late pullback from the 1.2900 mark.The intraday slide showed some resilience below the 100-hour SMA.The GBP/USD pair extended previous session's pullback from the 1.2900 neighbourhood and witnessed some follow-through selling on Tuesday. The pair, however, showed some resilience below 100-hour SMA and managed to find some support near a one-week-old descending trend-line resistance breakpoint, around the 1.2820 area.
 
The mentioned region coincides with 61.8% Fibonacci level of the 1.2769-1.2899 latest upsurge and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Meanwhile, mixed technical indicators on hourly/daily charts haven't been supportive of any firm near-term direction and thus, warrant some caution before placing aggressive bets.
 
Bulls are likely to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2900 handle before positioning for a further near-term appreciating move towards an intermediate resistance near the 1.2965-70 region. The momentum could further get extended and assist the pair to aim back towards reclaiming the key 1.30 psychological mark.
 
On the flip side, weakness below the mentioned resistance-turned-support might now turn the pair vulnerable to slide further below the 1.2800 handle towards retesting multi-week lows, around the 1.2770-65 region. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag the pair further towards its next major support near the 1.2715-10 zone. GBP/USD 1-hourly chart  

ING analysts suggest that with improving global risk sentiment, markets are not rushing away from G10 safe-havens as demonstrated too by the relativel

ING analysts suggest that with improving global risk sentiment, markets are not rushing away from G10 safe-havens as demonstrated too by the relatively small decrease (compared to the high-yielders) in JPY and CHF net positioning in CFTC data for the week, 30 October - 05 November. Key Quotes “EUR/USD net speculative positions retracted marginally (-0.9% of open interest) into deeper negative territory and now amount to -11% of open interest. Latest dynamics in euro positioning tend to endorse the notion that the EUR is cementing its role as one of the preferred funding currencies, hence moving broadly in line with the other low-yielders JPY and CHF. Accordingly, we expect a continued resilience in risk sentiment as unlikely to aid any short-squeezing effect on EUR/USD.” “Elsewhere, GBP positioning remained broadly stable around its 5-year average, signalling market’s wait-and-see approach ahead of the UK elections on December 12th. Investors seem to be pricing in a Conservative majority as the base-case scenario, which is widely seen as a market-friendly outcome. Accordingly, should the risk of a hung parliament start to emerge from the polls, another rise in GBP shorts may be on the cards.”

The EUR/USD trend on the chart below is clearly lower. The price is still making lower lows and lower highs and the next support level in focus is the

EUR/USD is trading 0.15% lower today as USD strength dominates.There are some intraday support zones to keep an eye on today.EUR/USD 30-Minute Chart The EUR/USD trend on the chart below is clearly lower. The price is still making lower lows and lower highs and the next support level in focus is the psychological 1.10 support. The previous wave low of 1.1015 has been broken but the price pulled back up almost immediately. Beyond that 1.0947 was also a sticky point on the higher timeframes. Today the key risk event is US President Donald Trump's speech in New York. This could inspire some volatility and break some of the levels highlighted below. Earlier despite some good data from the ZEW institute, the EUR failed to gather any upside momentum. Additional Levels  

Rabobank analysts point out that the Bloomberg survey indicates that 16 out of 21 forecasters expect the RBNZ to cut the Official Cash rate tomorrow t

Rabobank analysts point out that the Bloomberg survey indicates that 16 out of 21 forecasters expect the RBNZ to cut the Official Cash rate tomorrow to a record low of 0.75%. Key Quotes “The money market had been harbouring more doubts but on the back of this morning’s release of soft inflation expectations data from the RBNZ, a move this week almost appears as a done deal. A rate cut tomorrow would underpin our view that NZD/USD is heading lower towards 0.60 on a 12 month view.” “In the run up to this month’s RBNZ policy meeting market expectations regarding whether or not the RBNZ would cut rates have been particularly volatile.” “In spite of the criticism, the RBNZ has adopted a very pre-emptive position on policy this year. It was the first G10 central bank to ease in 2019 and its 50 bps move in August was larger than expected. By taking the market by surprise the RBNZ was arguably able to increase the impact of its rate cuts and accentuate the impact on the NZD. Relative to its March highs NZD/USD is currently trading over 8% lower. That said, despite the softening in monetary conditions, inflation expectations have failed to push higher.” “This morning release of the RBNZ’s measure of 2 year ahead inflation expectations showed a fall to 1.80% in Q4 from 1.86% in Q3. The 1 year ahead measure dropped to 1.66% from 1.71% in the last reading. The release created a surge in expectations that the RBNZ will bite the bullet and announce an additional cut in rates at tomorrow’s meeting.” “Supporting another rate cut tomorrow is the news that some of the steam has been taken out of the domestic housing market in recent months.” “A crucial part of tomorrow’s communication from the RBNZ will be the guidance offered for 2020. Given the constraints of household debt and the models of the banking system, there is a significant concern that the RBNZ may be reaching the lower floor for interest rates. Any acknowledgement of this, however, could lessen any downward pressure on the NZD from a policy move.”

Gold remained depressed through the mid-European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near three-month lows, just above $1450 level. The mention

The precious metal adds to its recent losses and drops to fresh three month lows.Slightly oversold conditions held investors from placing any aggressive bearish bets.Gold remained depressed through the mid-European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near three-month lows, just above $1450 level. The mentioned region marks 38.2% Fibonacci level of the $1265-$1557 bullish move and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.
 
Given the recent break below a one-month-old trading range support, which coincided with 100-day SMA, the near-term set-up remains tilted in favour of bearish traders. However, slightly oversold conditions on the 4-hourly charts helped limit any deeper losses, at least for the time being.
 
Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart maintained their bearish bias and are still far from being in the oversold territory, supporting prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as an opportunity to initiate fresh bearish positions.
 
Sustained weakness below a previous resistance, now turned support near the $1450 region seems to accelerate the fall further towards $1425 intermediate support before the commodity eventually slides to test 50% Fibo. level support near the $1412 area.
 
On the flip side, attempted recovery moves might now confront some fresh supply near the $1465-67 area and any subsequent strength is likely to remain capped near the confluence support breakpoint near the $1475 region. Gold daily chart  

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German ZEW survey posted a big jump higher in expectations, rising from -22.8 to -2.1 in November (mkt -13.0).

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German ZEW survey posted a big jump higher in expectations, rising from -22.8 to -2.1 in November (mkt -13.0). Key Quotes “The ZEW institute noted an improvement in the international economic policy environment, with a greater chance for a Brexit deal, less likely US auto tariffs, and a potential agreement in the trade conflict between the US and China. The current assessment posted a smaller improvement, rising from -25.3 to -24.7 (mkt -22.0).”

After three consecutive daily advances, including a move to all-time highs just below the 3,100 handle on Thursday, the S&P500 closed on Monday with m

S&P futures advance marginally to the 3,090 area.The index corrected lower on Monday.Trump’s speech prompts caution among traders.After three consecutive daily advances, including a move to all-time highs just below the 3,100 handle on Thursday, the S&P500 closed on Monday with moderate losses in sub-3,090 region. Attention shifted to Trump and trade Today, the S&P500 futures have regained some traction and point to a positive open, although the cautious tone among market participants remains well in place ahead of the key speech by President Trump at the Economic Club in New York later in the session. Indeed, investor will be scrutinizing Trump’s speech looking for any clue regarding the ongoing negotiations around the ‘Phase One’ deal and the decision on the potential roll over of some existing tariffs. In the meantime, the next level up for the S&P500 will be 3,097.80 (all-time high Nov.7), while the 10-day SMA at 3,068.30 should offer interim contention ahead of the 3,028/22 band, where are located July and September peaks.

UK Opposition Labour Party's leader Jeremy Corbyn crossed the wires in the last minutes announcing that a cyberattack took place against the party's p

UK Opposition Labour Party's leader Jeremy Corbyn crossed the wires in the last minutes announcing that a cyberattack took place against the party's platform on Monday and said it was a "very serious" attack. "So far as we aware none of our information was downloaded," Corbyn noted. "If this is a sign of things to come in our election I feel very nervous. We are looking into who might have been behind the attack." The GBP/USD pair largely ignored these comments and was last seen trading at 1.2830, losing 0.17% on a daily basis.

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY does not rule out a move beyond 109.75 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded betw

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY does not rule out a move beyond 109.75 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “USD traded between 108.88 and 109.26 yesterday, lower and narrower than our expected 109.00/109.50 range. Momentum indicators are still mostly ‘neutral’ and USD could continue to trade sideways for now. Expected range for today, 108.85/109.25”. Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from last Friday (08 Nov, spot at 109.30). We continue to hold the view that as long as USD stays above 108.65 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), the “risk of a break of 109.75 cannot be ruled out”. That said, USD could not afford to dither as a consolidation below the solid resistance level of 109.70 would quickly increase the risk of a short-term top”.

The Sterling is correcting lower following Monday’s advance and is also helping EUR/GBP to regain some poise and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.

EUR/GBP regains some shine on GBP-selling.Recent multi-month lows align in the mid-0.8500s.Economic Sentiment in Germany improved in November.The Sterling is correcting lower following Monday’s advance and is also helping EUR/GBP to regain some poise and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.8600 the figure. EUR/GBP looks to politics, unfazed by ZEW Despite the softer tone in the quid on Tuesday, the renewed and moderate selling pressure in the euro is now undermining the positive momentum around the European cross, which has so far met strong hurdle in the 0.8600 neighbourhood. Both the euro and the pound are suffering the recovery in the greenback on the back of higher yields and increasing optimism on the US-China trade front. Regarding the latter, President Trump will speak later today and he could probably unveil further details on the current progress of the negotiations around the ‘Phase One’ deal. Back to the UK elections, the Conservative Party remains in the lead as per the latest poll results, while the positive effects on the quid following N.Farage’s comments on Monday continue to fade away. Data wise today, the key ZEW survey showed the Economic Sentiment improved in both Germany and the broader Euroland this month, although it remains within the negative territory. On the other side of the Channel, the labour market report came in on a mixed tone: while the jobless rate tocked lower to 3.8% in the three months to September, both the Claimant Count Change and the Average Earnings +Bonus came in short of expectations at 33.0K and 3.6%, respectively. EUR/GBP key levels The cross is advancing 0.02% at 0.8584 and faces the next hurdle at 0.8619 (21-day SMA) seconded by 0.8667 (78.6% Fibo of the May-August rally) and then (0.8676 (high Oct.24). On the flip side, a breach of 0.8557 (monthly low Nov.11) would expose 0.8488 (monthly low May 6) and finally 0.8474 (2019 low Mar.12).

The GBP/JPY cross quickly retreated around 60-65 pips from the early European session swing highs but now seems to have stabilized above the key 140.0

The incoming UK political headlines prompted some selling at higher levels. Softer UK wage growth data exerted some additional pressure on the GBP.Fading safe-haven demand weighed on the JPY and helped limit further slide.The GBP/JPY cross quickly retreated around 60-65 pips from the early European session swing highs but now seems to have stabilized above the key 140.00 psychological mark.
 
The cross initially gained some follow-through traction on Tuesday and built on the overnight positive move, though the momentum fizzled out rather near the top end of a near one-month-old trading range. Comments by the Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, saying that they will not be offering any more help to the Conservatives, triggered the initial leg of an intraday pullback. Traders refrained from placing directional bets The downtick accelerated further following the disappointing release of UK wage growth data, showing that average earnings excluding bonuses increased by 3.6% as compared to 3.8% in the previous month. The figures also showed the biggest annual drop in the number of job vacancies in nearly 10 years and largely offset an unexpected decline in the UK unemployment rate.
 
Meanwhile, a slight improvement in the global risk sentiment, despite some renewed US-China trade uncertainty, undermined the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand and helped limit further losses. The cross remained well within a broader trading range held over the past one month or so, making it prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction before placing ay aggressive bets. Technical levels to watch  

USD/CHF 1-Hour Chart USD/CHF is pushing higher in the EU session as the risk rally continues. Gold, CHF and JPY are all trading lower as the FTSE 100

The price has bounced off the trendline support for a second time.The pair is trading 0.28% higher on the session as the risk mood remains positive.  USD/CHF 1-Hour Chart USD/CHF is pushing higher in the EU session as the risk rally continues. Gold, CHF and JPY are all trading lower as the FTSE 100 and DAX have pushed higher today. Looking at the technicals on the chart, it was previously touted that this trendline was an important support. Today the level has been used again and pushed higher. As you can see by the arrows on the chart the level has been significant. In terms of support and resistance levels, The main area of resistance is 0.9979 is the previous wave high.  For the trend to continue higher that level needs to be taken out. The main area of support is 0.9923 as if this level break it would create a lower high lower low formation. Additional Levels  

Speaking at the Chinese state TV, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said that they will be using counter-cyclical measure more effectively and reiterated tha

Speaking at the Chinese state TV, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said that they will be using counter-cyclical measure more effectively and reiterated that they will strengthen support to the real economy.  "We will ensure achievement of key targets for 2019," Li further added, per Reuters. "We will improve the use of local government special bonds." These comments don't seem to be having a significant impact on market sentiment and major European equity indexes continue to cling to their modest daily gains.

The USD/JPY pair is moving sideways above the 109 handle for the second straight day as investors stay on the sidelines while waiting for United State

US Dollar Index extends consolidation above 98.US Pres. Trump is expected to deliver remarks on trade conflict with China.Wall Street looks to open the day modestly higher. The USD/JPY pair is moving sideways above the 109 handle for the second straight day as investors stay on the sidelines while waiting for United States (US) President Donald Trump to deliver fresh remarks on the trade dispute with China. As of writing, the pair was up 0.15% on a daily basis at 109.20. Focus shifts to US President Trump's speech Ahead of President Trump's speech at a luncheon hosted by the Economic Club of New York, Politico reported that a source familiar with Trump's prepared remarks said that his statement on China will be constructive. If that turns out to be true, risk-on flows could re-take control of the market and make it difficult for the safe-haven JPY to find demand. In the meantime, major European equity indexes are posting modest gains on Tuesday and the S&P 500 Futures is up 0.1% to reflect a slightly upbeat market mood. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index is moving sideways above the 98 mark in the absence of significant macroeconomic drivers, suggesting that the risk sentiment is likely to continue to impact the pair's movements. Later in the session, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Philly Fed President Patrick Harker will be speaking as well. In the early trading hours of the Asian session, Producer Price Index (PPI) figures from Japan will be published but are likely to be ignored by investors. Technical levels to watch for    

The AUD/USD pair witnessed some follow-through selling for the third consecutive session on Tuesday and dropped to over two-week lows amid renewed US-

Renewed US-China trade uncertainty continued weighing on the Aussie.Weakness below 100-day SMA support prospects for a further decline.The AUD/USD pair witnessed some follow-through selling for the third consecutive session on Tuesday and dropped to over two-week lows amid renewed US-China trade uncertainty.
 
The recent pullback from the vicinity of the very important 200-day SMA – has now dragged the pair to a support marked by 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 0.6671-0.6930 positive move.
 
Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts maintained their bearish bias and just started drifting into the negative territory on hourly charts, supporting prospects for a further slide.
 
The pair’s near-term bearish outlook is further reinforced by the fact that bulls on Tuesday failed to defend 100-day SMA despite better-than-expected Aussie NAB Business data.
 
Hence, some follow-through weakness, possibly towards challenging the 0.6800 round-figure mark (50% Fibo.), now looks a distinct possibility ahead of Trump’s trade speech later today.
 
On the flip side, any attempted recovery now seems to confront some fresh supply near 23.6% Fibo. – around the 0.6865 region – ahead of the 0.6900 handle and the 0.6930 supply zone.  AUD/USD daily chart  

The DowJones index started the week with marginal gains (0.04%) and closed in levels just shy of the 27,700 pts on Monday, all amidst alternating risk

DowJones closed at record highs on Monday.Investors expect Trump to unveil details on the ‘Phase One’ deal.Renewed optimism on the trade front supports the upbeat mood.The DowJones index started the week with marginal gains (0.04%) and closed in levels just shy of the 27,700 pts on Monday, all amidst alternating risk-appetite trends in response to some renewed effervescence in the US-China trade scenario. It is worth recalling that the DJI recorded an all-time intraday high at 27,774 last Thursday. Today, markets will be closely following President Trump’s speech at the Economic Club in New York in search for any extra detail on the trade front and particularly regarding the ‘Phase One’ deal and the potential roll over existing tariffs. Monday’s gains in Industrials, Financials and Telecoms helped the benchmark stock index to keep the positive performance, as opposed to the S&P500 (-0.20%) and the NASDAQ Composite (-0.13%). DowJones faces the next interim resistance at 27,774.7 (all-time high Nov.7) while on the downside the next support emerges at the 10-day SMA at 27,414.7 seconded by July’s high at 27,398.7 and then the September peak at 27,306.7.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart GBP/USD is trading -0.13% lower today but this is mostly due to some strength in the greenback. Today there was some earnings da

GBP/USD finds intraday support at 1.2820 after falling earlier in the session.The low of 1.2769 is still the support level in focus. GBP/USD Hourly ChartGBP/USD is trading -0.13% lower today but this is mostly due to some strength in the greenback. Today there was some earnings data which came in mixed. Average earnings missed on expectations while the employment change was positive. The hourly chart broke the trendline to the upside and the price did come back to test the break but found support at 1.2820. The key support level still remains at 1.2769 which is the consolidation low on the daily chart. On the topside, if this trend is to continue higher then 1.3013 is the resistance level to beat. Right now it seems a break lower is more likely but this will depend on the dollar strength we see in the afternoon.  It seems to be a theme that when the US come to market dollars get bought. Also later in the session, the key event of the day is the Trump speech at 17:00 London time.   Additional Levels  

Previewing US President Donald Trump's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Politico's Morning Money host Ben White on Tuesday said a s

Previewing US President Donald Trump's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday, Politico's Morning Money host Ben White on Tuesday said a source familiar with direct knowledge of the matter said Trump will be making a 'constructive statement on China.' These comments seem to be providing a modest boost to the market sentiment. As of writing, the USD/JPY pair was up 0.15% on a daily basis and major European equity indexes were adding between 0.3% and 0.6%. 

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s September labour market data was mixed today, with the unemployment rate slipping back down to 3.8% (mkt

Analysts at TD Securities note that the UK’s September labour market data was mixed today, with the unemployment rate slipping back down to 3.8% (mkt 3.9%), but wage growth a bit weaker at 3.6% y/y (mkt 3.8%). Key Quotes “There are still signs of weakness ahead though, with vacancies posting their biggest y/y fall in a decade. The labour market data is very slow moving since it's a 3m MA, so today's figures were for the July-Sept period. (Whereas we already have US employment data for October.)” “So while other more timely survey data suggest that the unemployment rate is likely to start trending a bit higher over the next several months, it will take a while for that trend to be clear in the official labour market report.”

United States NFIB Business Optimism Index registered at 102.4, below expectations (103.5) in October

In light of the recent performance, Cable is now expected to move within a sideline theme, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour v

In light of the recent performance, Cable is now expected to move within a sideline theme, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Expectation for GBP to “trade at a lower range” was incorrect as it spiked briefly to a high 1.2896 before dropping back to end the day on a firm note at 1.2853 (+0.57%). While momentum has not improved by much, there is room for GBP to test the 1.2900 level. For today, a sustained rise beyond this level is not expected (next resistance is at 1.2930). Support is at 1.2825 followed by 1.2795”. Next 1-3 weeks: “One day after ‘probing’ the bottom of our expected 1.2770/1.2930 range (low of 1.2769 last Friday), GBP staged a sudden and strong rebound and cracked the ‘strong resistance’ level of 1.2865 (overnight high of 1.2896). The price action suggests that GBP is not ready to move below 1.2770 just yet (we indicated last Friday “a NY closing below 1.2770 could lead to further weakness to 1.2700”). From here, GBP is deemed to have move back into a sideway-trading phase. For the next couple of weeks, GBP is expected trade sideways between 1.2770 and 1.2930”.

EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1023 Today Daily Change 20 Today Daily Change % -0.08 Today daily open 1.1032 Trends Daily SMA20 1.1102 Daily SMA

EUR/USD has once again failed to break above the key 55-day SMA in the 1.1040 region on Tuesday.Spot needs to regain this area on a sustainable fashion in order to reassert the upside pressure and therefore allow for attest of the 100-day SMA just above the 1.11 mark.The continuation of the selling pressure initially targets the psychological barrier at 1.10 the figure ahead of the 1.0920 region.EUR/USD daily chart  

The NZD/USD pair registered modest gains on Monday but came under bearish pressure during the Asian trading hours after the Reserve Bank of New Zealan

RBNZ's inflation expectations declined further in the fourth quarter.US Dollar Index stays in a consolidation phase above 98.Coming up: US Pres. Trump's speech and RBNZ policy announcements.The NZD/USD pair registered modest gains on Monday but came under bearish pressure during the Asian trading hours after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) Survey of Expectations showed a further decline in inflation expectations. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.6330, losing 0.45% on a daily basis. Eyes on RBNZ rate decision The RBNZ's Inflation Expectations for the fourth quarter fell to 1.8% from 1.86% in the previous publication. Commenting on the potential impact of that data on the RBNZ's policy rate, which will be announced on Wednesday, "This alters the balance of available information ahead of tomorrow's OCR decision. Accordingly, we are reverting to forecasting an OCR cut tomorrow (previously on hold)," said Westpac analysts. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index is moving sideways near the 98.30 mark ahead of today's key events. US President Donald Trump will be speaking at a luncheon hosted by the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday and investors will be looking for comments on the trade dispute with China. Later in the session, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Barking and Harker will be delivering speeches as well. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida did not comment on his current views about the economy or the near-term policy outlook in his prepared remarks for a conference in Switzerland on Tuesday. Technical levels to watch for  

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD remains under pressure and could extend the drop below the 1.10 handle in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted EUR/USD remains under pressure and could extend the drop below the 1.10 handle in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday “lackluster momentum suggests any weakness below the strong 1.1000 level is unlikely to be sustained”. The 1.1000 level was unchallenged as EUR traded in a quiet manner and within a relatively narrow range of 28 pips (between 1.1015 and 1.1043). The price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and EUR could continue to trade sideways. Expected range for today, 1.1020 and 1.1065”. Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR closed lower for the fifth straight day last Friday as it dropped to 1.1015 before closing at 1.1016. The price action is in line with our view from last Wednesday (06 Nov, spot 1.1075) wherein EUR is expected to “trade with a downside bias towards 1.1000”. After the relatively weak daily closing on Friday, the risk for a sustained decline below 1.1000 has increased slightly. However, there is another strong support at 1.0970 and only a clear break of this level would suggest EUR is ready to tackle 1.0930. All in, EUR is expected to stay under pressure unless it can move above 1.1090 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 1.1125 last Friday)”.

Analysts at ANZ suggest that with the shape of the upcoming business cycle unclear and monetary easing reaching its limits, Asian policymakers are tur

Analysts at ANZ suggest that with the shape of the upcoming business cycle unclear and monetary easing reaching its limits, Asian policymakers are turning to fiscal policy to bolster growth. Key Quotes “But how much can expansionary fiscal policies deliver? Not a whole lot by our estimates. Though the region is fiscally fit, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is muted by various issues such has openness to trade and low tax-GDP ratios. Much depends on the size of the fiscal stimulus.” “Based on the latest available fiscal data, we believe fiscal policy will provide the largest boost to growth in South Korea. At the other end of the spectrum is Indonesia.”

ING analysts note that according to CFTC data for the week, 30 October - 05 November, the three pro-cyclical currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) all saw som

ING analysts note that according to CFTC data for the week, 30 October - 05 November, the three pro-cyclical currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) all saw some speculative longs added/shorts removed, with the Aussie dollar leading the pack, Key Quotes “AUD net positions saw a change of +9.7% of open interest (from -26% to -17%). Such variation is consistent with the positive week for AUD in the spot market (+0.4%) and is likely the consequence of the Reserve Bank of Australia's upbeat tone at the 5 November meeting, that fuelled expectations of a more extended pause in the Bank’s easing cycle.” “Elsewhere, the short-squeezing in NZD was more marginal (+4%), which leaves the net positioning still deep into short territory (-52% of open interest, the biggest G10 short). The speculative market still appears quite reluctant to bet on a risk-on-fuelled rebound in NZD, which is likely due to the uncertainty around the RBNZ monetary policy path. Markets are currently pricing in a 60% probability that the Bank will cut rates this Wednesday but (as highlighted in our preview: “One more cut from New Zealand’s central bank?”) we lean slightly in favour of a hold, which may prompt a more sizeable squaring in NZD shorts.” “The third commodity currency, CAD, continues to see net long speculative positions being added (now piling up to 28% of open interest, the biggest long in G10), quite surprisingly given that the reference period covers the Bank of Canada meeting (30 Oct), that was universally seen as a dovish tilt in the Bank’s neutral policy stance.” “According to such dynamic, we would not be surprised to see CAD positioning holding up fairly well even in next week's CFTC report, that will cover the disappointing Canadian payrolls released last Friday.”

Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 98.31 Today Daily Change 14 Today Daily Change % 0.10 Today daily open 98.21 Trends Daily SMA20 97.72 Dai

The index is resuming the weekly upside following Monday’s pullback and it has returned to the area of 98.30, where sits the key 55-day SMA.Extra losses are likely to find moderate support in the 97.90 region, where coincide a Fibo retracement of the 2017-2018 drop and he 100-day SMA.In the meantime, while above the critical 200-day SMA in the mid-97.00s, the outlook on the greenback should remain constructive.DXY daily chart  

Economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviewed the recent higher-than-expected CPI figures in the Chinese economy. Key Quotes “China’s Consumer Pr

Economist at UOB Group Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviewed the recent higher-than-expected CPI figures in the Chinese economy. Key Quotes “China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to more than 7-year high at 3.8% y/y in October from 3.0% in September, coming in significantly higher than consensus forecast of 3.4%”. “The driver was again pork prices which jumped 101.3% y/y (Sep: 69.3% y/y), the largest monthly gains on record (based on data available since 2005)”. “Indicative of a weak demand outlook, core CPI (excluding food and energy) was unchanged from September at 1.5% y/y and services CPI remained subdued at 1.4% y/y in October (Sep:1.3% y/y)”. “Overall weak demand was also reaffirmed by the continuing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) which fell for the fourth straight month in October at -1.6% y/y, … the largest decline since July 2016 when China’s factory prices were in a period of deflation”. “Notwithstanding the surge in CPI, the weaker demand-side price pressure suggests that more policy measures are necessary to boost consumption in the Chinese economy as growth is expected to slow further. We expect China’s GDP growth to moderate to 5.9% in 2020 from 6.1% this year. After People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the 1Y Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate by 5 bps to 3.25% last week, we anticipate that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) which is pegged to the MLF to fall by 5-10 bps at the upcoming monthly fixing on 20 November. The central bank is expected to continue its gradual pace of monetary easing including further reductions to the banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) ahead”.

EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 120.39 Today Daily Change 40 Today Daily Change % 0.07 Today daily open 120.31 Trends Daily SMA20 120.72 Daily SMA5

EUR/JPY is extending the sideline theme so far well supported by the 120.00 neighbourhood and always tracking the JPY-dynamics in response to the US-China trade developments.The continuation of the leg lower could see the key 100-day SMA near 119.60 re-tested in the short-term horizon ahead of the 55-day SMA at 119.13.On the flip side, the resumption of the bullish mood continues to target the area of recent tops in the mid-121.00s.EUR/JPY daily chart  

Buying interest around the Greenback picked up some pace during the early European session on Tuesday and lifted the USD/CAD pair to one-month tops, a

The USD regains traction despite weaker US bond yields, trade uncertainty.Bullish Oil prices do little to support the Loonie or hinder the positive move.Buying interest around the Greenback picked up some pace during the early European session on Tuesday and lifted the USD/CAD pair to one-month tops, around the 1.3250-55 region in the last hour.
 
Following a modest pullback on the first day of a new trading week, the US Dollar managed to regain traction and remained well within the striking distance of multi-week tops. The USD bulls seemed rather unaffected by a mildly weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields and renewed US-China trade uncertainty. Resurgent USD demand remained supportive The recent trade optimism faded rather quickly after the US President Donald Trump's comments over the weekend, saying that trade talks were going “very nicely,” but there was no agreement yet on rollback of existing tariffs. However, the mixed market mood was seen benefitting the Greenback's safe-haven status against its Canadian counterpart.
 
Meanwhile, the prevalent bullish trading sentiment around Crude Oil prices, which tend to underpin the commodity-linked currency – Loonie, also did little hinder the pair's ongoing positive momentum for the third consecutive session, to the highest level since October 11.
 
It will now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the positive momentum or meets with some fresh supply at higher levels as investors look forward to Trump's appearance at the New York Economic Club later during the US trading session on Tuesday.
 
In the meantime, a scheduled speech by the Fed Governor Richard Clarida might influence the USD price dynamics and further collaborate towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that UK’s headline measure of employment fell by 58,000 in the three months to September,

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, points out that UK’s  headline measure of employment fell by 58,000 in the three months to September, albeit this was better than expected. Key Quotes “Dig a little deeper, however, and the picture is a little more blurry. The recent fall in employment has been predominantly driven by 18-24 year-olds, and once that group is stripped out, jobs growth is still positive. A large chunk of the fall has also been led by part-time employees. It’s not clear whether these two factors are linked, but both can be reasonably volatile parts of the jobs data.” “Either way, the outlook for the jobs market looks challenging. The level of vacancies has been consistently falling over recent months, while the PMIs are pointing to reduced hiring appetite – and in some cases, redundancies. With the investment outlook likely to remain clouded as we move into 2020, regardless of the election outcome, we expect the challenges facing the jobs market to persist.” “That said, it’s still early days and the jury is still out on whether this merely reflects a jobs market that is no longer tightening, or whether it is something more serious. Either way, this raises some question marks over wage growth – a key pillar in the Bank of England’s hawkish rationale over recent years. At 3.6%, pay growth has fallen back but still looks pretty respectable.” “Partly for that reason, we think it’s still probably too early to be pencilling in Bank of England rate cuts just yet. However it’s clear that the jobs market holds the key, and a further material deterioration could easily see policymakers inch closer to easing policy in 2020.”

There was a massive beat against analyst expectations for German Zew economic sentiment today. There were a few key reasons for the change in sentimen

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) -2.1 vs expectations of -13.2European ZEW Economic Sentiment (Nov) -1.0 -vs expectations of 11.5There was a massive beat against analyst expectations for German Zew economic sentiment today. There were a few key reasons for the change in sentiment according to the economic think tanks. ZEW said that the improved outlook for Brexit, Auto tariffs from the US and the US-China trade deal increase optimism among companies. Growing hope that the international economic policy eniviroment will improve in the near future, which explains the sharp rise in the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment in November The slowdown in the EU are is still the key issue for the EUR against most of its counterparts. Now that sentiment is improving maybe it could encourage companies to spend and grow but it's clear that tariffs and trade wars are on investors minds. The EUR was largely unfazed by the improvement and actually pushed down slightly EUR/USD has been struggling for much of the session anyway and trades 0.05% lower on the day. The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.  

European Monetary Union ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment registered at -1 above expectations (-32.5) in November

Spain 6-Month Letras Auction rose from previous -0.498% to -0.477%

Spain 12-Month Letras Auction up to -0.457% from previous -0.474%

Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment registered at -2.1 above expectations (-13) in November

Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation below forecasts (-22) in November: Actual (-24.7)

The GBP/USD pair held on to its weaker tone, around the 1.2830-35 region and had a rather muted reaction to the latest UK employment details. Having f

The incoming UK political headlines exerted some downward pressure.A goodish pickup in the USD demand further adds to the selling bias.Mixed UK employment details did little to provide any fresh impetus.The GBP/USD pair held on to its weaker tone, around the 1.2830-35 region and had a rather muted reaction to the latest UK employment details.
 
Having failed just ahead of the 1.2900 handle in the previous session, the pair witnessed some fresh selling on Tuesday in reaction to the Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage's comments that they will not be offering any more help to the Conservatives.
 
This comes after Farage on Monday committed that his party will not challenge any of the 317 seats currently held by the Conservatives. However, the fact that the latest development does little to reduce odds of a hung parliament exerted some downward pressure on the British Pound.
 
This coupled with some renewed US Dollar buying interest, despite a mildly weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields and the latest US-China trade uncertainty, further collaborated to the pair's slide back closer to the overnight resistance breakpoint.
 
On the economic data front, the monthly UK jobs report came in to show that the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked lower to 3.8% during the three months to September. The positive reading, to a larger extent, was offset by softer wage growth figures and larger-than-expected rise in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits and thus, did little to provide any meaningful impetus. Technical levels to watch  

It was a mixed announcement in the UK earnings round up today as the average earnings and claimant count numbers mixed analysts expectations but empl

UK average earnings figures print at 3.6% missing expectations of 3.8% on both the non-bonus and including bonus figures.Claimant Count Change (Oct) 33.0K  vs expected 24.2KEmployment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Sep) -58K vs expected -94K Unemployment Rate (Sep) 3.8% vs expected 3.9%   It was a mixed announcement in the UK earnings round up today as the average earnings and claimant count numbers mixed analysts expectations but employment change and unemployment rates performed well. Average wage increases are still above inflation which is the key metric and this will provide some solace to politicians as we lead into the UK general elections. Average earnings figures have been on the rise in the UK since July 2017. There have obviously been some blips along the way but the general trend has been higher, The reason why this is important especially in the UK is that earnings need to keep up with inflation.  In regards to employment figures, the UK has been at full employment levels for some time. Unless the number is very far out of line it rarely impacts GBP. The main headline that comes from employment is from the politicians. They love to tell the public that they are responsible for good employment numbers.  

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate: 3.4% (October) vs 3.3%

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY has rallied higher last week above the 200 day ma and into 5 month highs. Key Quotes “It is

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY has rallied higher last week above the 200 day ma and into 5 month highs. Key Quotes “It is losing upside momentum ahead of tough resistance which extends from current levels up to the 2015-2019 downtrend at 110.79 (the 55 and 200 week moving averages are found ahead of here at 109.57/109.98). This is formidable resistance and it should hold the topside.” “Near term the market is bid while above the uptrend at 108.36 and we would allow for some upside probes. Failure at the recent low of 107.89 is needed to alleviate upside pressure and trigger losses to the 106.48 October low.” “Failure at 106.48 will target 106.00, then 105.32/78.6% retracement which is the last defence for the 104.46 August low.”

United Kingdom Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) came in at 3.6%, below expectations (3.8%) in September

United Kingdom Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) below expectations (3.8%) in September: Actual (3.6%)

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 33K, above forecasts (21.3K) in October

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below expectations (3.9%) in September: Actual (3.8%)

Gold remained depressed through the early European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near three-month lows, around the $1450 region. The prec

Resurgent USD demand kept exerting some downward pressure.Renewed US-China trade uncertainty helped limit the downside.Tuesday’s key focus will be on Fedspeak and Trump’s appearance.Gold remained depressed through the early European session on Tuesday and is currently placed near three-month lows, around the $1450 region.
 
The precious metal extended its recent pullback and witnessed some follow-through selling for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, also marking its sixth day of a negative move in the past seven amid some renewed US Dollar buying interest. Focus on Trump’s speech, trade developments Despite a mildly weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields, the Greenback managed to regain positive traction on Tuesday and was seen as one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the dollar-denominated commodity.
 
However, the mixed trading sentiment around equity markets, led by renewed US-China trade uncertainty and political unrest in Hong Kong, extended some support to the precious metal's perceived safe-haven status and helped limit any further losses.
 
It is worth recalling that the US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that trade talks were going “very nicely,” but there was no agreement yet on rollback of existing tariffs. Hence, Tuesday's key focus will be on Trump’s appearance at the New York Economic Club.
 
In the meantime, a scheduled speech by the Fed Governor Richard Clarida might influence the USD price dynamics and contribute towards producing some short-term trading opportunities around the non-yielding yellow metal. Technical levels to watch  

Daily Chart USD/JPY has been performing well of late in relative terms. The price is now testing the top of the rising wedge pattern once again after

The pair trades 0.14% higher today as risk sentiment improves.There is a rising wedge formation on the daily chart that is being well respected.  Daily Chart USD/JPY has been performing well of late in relative terms. The price is now testing the top of the rising wedge pattern once again after rejecting it last week.  The 109.00 psychological support level managed to hold overnight and now the price is 0.14% higher. If the pattern breaks higher the next resistance zone is just under the 110.00 at 109.75. The level to beat for the bulls is 109.49 which is the previous wave high.  At the moment the price is still making higher lows and higher highs so the bullish scenario remains.     Additional levels  

Analysts at TD Securities point out that on Saturday China released October CPI data revealing that inflation rose more than expected, 3.8% y/y (mkt 3

Analysts at TD Securities point out that on Saturday China released October CPI data revealing that inflation rose more than expected, 3.8% y/y (mkt 3.4% y/y). Key Quotes “Once again pork prices jumped due to the impact of African Swine Disease, up 20.1% m/m and a huge 101.3% y/y. Higher pork prices have also helped to drive up other meat products and resulted overall food price inflation rising by 15.5%, its highest since June 2008. This will have little implication for monetary policy however and in fact the CPI suggests more room for easier policy if pork is excluded. Ex-food CPI actually dropped to 0.9% y/y, its lowest in 4 years. Additionally PPI was even more negative at -1.6% y/y.”

The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index – reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next s

German ZEW Survey Overview The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index – reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next six months – during the early European session this Tuesday. The headline Economic Sentiment Index is expected to rebound to -13 in November from -22.8 reading booked in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is also expected to bounce from -25.3 in October to -22 for the reported month.
 
As Danske Bank analysts point out – “In Continental Europe, the ZEW indicator for November will be released. Last month the expectations - current conditions spread turned positive again for the first time since May, boding well for a further stabilisation in PMI manufacturing. A further improvement today will strengthen this signal.” How could they affect EUR/USD? Yohay Elam, FXStreet's analyst offered important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair – “The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD is facing fierce resistance at 1.1072. If the world's most popular currency pair breaks higher, the next level to watch is 1.1118, which is the confluence of the SMA 100-4h and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week.”
 
“Support awaits at 1.0997. Further down, 1.0969 is where the PP one-day S3 and the PP one-week S1 converge,” he added further. Key Notes    •  EUR/USD forecast: Bears await a sustained break below 1.10 handle, German ZEW eyed
 
   •  EUR/USD struggles below 50-DMA ahead of German ZEW, Trump
 
   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Holding above 1.1000 but at risk of falling further About German ZEW The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).

The selling pressure appears to have returned to the shared currency on Tuesday and is now forcing EUR/USD to recede to the area of recent lows around

EUR/USD fades gains and resumes the downside.ECB’s Coeure said QE is here to stay.German, EMU ZEW survey next of relevance.The selling pressure appears to have returned to the shared currency on Tuesday and is now forcing EUR/USD to recede to the area of recent lows around 1.1020. EUR/USD offered ahead of ZEW The pair is fading yesterday’s advance after ECB’s B.Coeure stressed that the ongoing ‘quantitative easing’ (QE) programme by the central bank will remain in place for as long as needed. In addition, the better mood in the US-China trade scenario seems to have come back today, lifting yields and sponsoring the selling mood in around the safe havens, all in turn morphing into extra wings for the buck. In the docket, the key ZEW survey in Germany and the broader euro area will be in the limelight later in the European morning. Across the pond, the NFIB index will be the only publication today along with speeches from FOMC’s R.Clarida and P.Harker. What to look for around EUR The selling mood in the euro dragged spot to fresh 3-week lows in the 1.1020/15 band, where it is now looking to stabilize. As usual, the firm note in the greenback and developments from the US-China trade scenario are expected to dictate the mood around the pair for the time being. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In addition, the possibility that the German economy could slip into recession in Q3 remains a palpable risk for the outlook and is expected to weigh further on EUR in the short/medium term horizon. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.10% at 1.1021 and a break below 1.1016 (monthly low Nov.11) would target 1.1000 (psychological handle) en route to 1.0925 (low Sep.3). On the upside, the next hurdle lines up at 1.1106 (100-day SMA) followed by 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21) and finally 1.1186 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 rally).

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann assessed the recent BoE event. Key Quotes “As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its monetary policy u

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann assessed the recent BoE event.   Key Quotes “As widely expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its monetary policy unchanged at their November meeting. What came as a surprise, though, was the split 7–2 vote by the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain the Bank Rate at 0.75%, whilst voting unanimously to keep the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade bond purchases at GBP10bn and the stock of UK government bond purchases at GBP435bn”. “MPC members Michael Saunders and Jonathan Haskel both opted for a 25bps rate cut, saying their vote was driven by reduced job vacancies and downside risks from the global economic slowdown and Brexit”. “As reflected in the minutes and subsequent press conference by BoE Governor Mark Carney, the BoE makes it clear that, although the current UK growth slowdown is due “partly” to the weakening global economy, it is above all caused “by increasingly entrenched Brexit-related uncertainties”. “The Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report, for the first time, included precise Brexit assumptions based on the withdrawal agreement struck with Brussels. It believes leaving the EU will lead to the economy growing more slowly, but had previously been basing its forecasts on the average impact over 15 years”. “Despite the dovish tilt at the latest meeting, we expect the BoE to be in a wait-and-see stance. We believe that the two dissenters against a large majority is still somewhat premature in tipping the balance for a rate cut, especially with a no-deal Brexit scenario off the immediate agenda. We would prefer to wait for the outcome of the impending election and its subsequent impact on how Brexit may proceed, before making changes to our forecasts”.

The AUD/USD pair reversed an early dip to over two-week lows and jumped to fresh session tops, around the 0.6855-60 region in the last hour, albeit qu

Renewed US-China trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the Aussie.A goodish pickup in the USD demand further added to the selling bias.Tuesday’s key focus will be on Fedspeak, Trump’s scheduled speech.The AUD/USD pair reversed an early dip to over two-week lows and jumped to fresh session tops, around the 0.6855-60 region in the last hour, albeit quickly retreated few pips thereafter.
 
The pair extended its recent pullback from the 0.6930 region and lost some additional ground during the Asian session on Tuesday. The US President Donald Trump's comments over the weekend, saying that there was no agreement yet on rollback of existing tariffs, turned out to be one of the key factors exerting some downward pressure on the China-proxy Australian Dollar. Focus remains on trade developments The pair touched an intraday low level of 0.6832 and was further pressurized by a modest pickup in the US Dollar demand, this time backed by a fresh leg of an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields. However, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment extended some support to perceived riskier currencies, like the Aussie, and helped limit any deeper losses, at least for now.
 
Meanwhile, the attempted recovery lacked any strong follow-through, rather quickly ran out of the steam as investors seemed reluctant to place any fresh bets ahead of Trump’s appearance at the New York Economic Club later during the US trading session on Tuesday. In the meantime, a scheduled speech by the Fed Governor Richard Clarida might produce some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

Having abandoned plans to contest seats held by the Tories, Brexit Party leader, Nigel Farage was out with some additional comments in the last hour a

Having abandoned plans to contest seats held by the Tories, Brexit Party leader, Nigel Farage was out with some additional comments in the last hour and said that we will give no more ground to the Conservatives.
 
The remarks exerted some downward pressure on the British Pound and dragged the GBP/USD pair to fresh daily lows, around the 1.2825-20 region.

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that growth in the mainland economy of Norway was solid and employment increased at a healt

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that growth in the mainland economy of Norway was solid and employment increased at a healthy pace in Q3, but these figures are however somewhat weaker than Norges Bank’s forecasts. Key Quotes “Mainland GDP grew by a solid 0.7% q/q (2.9% y-o-y) in Q3, the same as in Q2. Nordea and consensus forecasted growth at 0.8% q/q while Norges Bank’s forecast was 1% q/q.” “The production picture was mixed. Manufacturing production, construction, and the retail sector were rather weak. On the other hand, the services sector (excluding retail) grew at a healthy pace. As expected, electricity production pulled growth up by 0.1%.” “Employment continues to grow at a healthy pace, however, slowed somewhat compared to the previous quarter. A growth at 0,3% q/q is somewhat on the downside to Norges Bank’s forecast (0.4% q/q).” “Our view is that the mainland economy continues to grow at a healthy pace, and it is hard to see signs of a significant slowdown. Still, the figure for growth was on the downside to Norges Bank.” “We do not know the details behind Norges Bank’s forecast, but we guess it was based on a stronger growth in the more volatile components such as electricity production. We therefore do not believe Norges Bank will emphasize this figure too much. Remember that growth is still well above trend. Perhaps more important is the fact that employment was somewhat weaker than Norges Bank expected.” “All in all, on the margin, these two figures should contribute negatively to the coming interest rate path in December. But the contribution should be minor, and the weak NOK still argues for a higher rate path.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that GBP/USD has recently sold off to and recovered from the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement, implying that

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that GBP/USD has recently sold off to and recovered from the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement, implying that the market is well placed for another attempt at the psychological resistance at 1.3000. Key Quotes “Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3122 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, but we look for the market to be capped here. Failure at 1.2764 will see a slide to the 200 day ma at 1.2703. This guards 1.2582. Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2382 17th July low and the 1.2403 uptrend. The uptrend guards 1.2196/94.” “Below the current October low at 1.2194 lies the early and mid-August lows at 1.2091/15 and major support lies at the 1.1958 September low.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member, Benoit Coeure, during a scheduled speech this Tuesday, said that we are committed to continu

The European Central Bank (ECB) governing council member, Benoit Coeure, during a scheduled speech this Tuesday, said that we are committed to continuing QE for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of our policy rates and could also consider expanding access to ECB balance sheet.
 
The comments reinforced the ECB's dovish tilt and exerted some downward pressure on the shared currency, dragging the EUR/USD pair back closer to multi-week lows.

GBP/USD is trading in the mid 1.28s after Nigel Farage's Brexit Party boosted Prime Minister Boris Johnson's chances of winning. How high can cable cl

GBP/USD is trading in the mid 1.28s after Nigel Farage's Brexit Party boosted Prime Minister Boris Johnson's chances of winning. How high can cable climb?  The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2880, which is the convergence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, the Simple Moving Average 200-1h, the SMA 50-4h, the Bollinger Band 4h-Upper and more.  If it overcomes this level, the next resistance is only around 1.3013, which is the meeting point of the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 2 and the previous monthly high.  Support awaits at 1.2840, which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, the SMA 100-1h, the BB 1h-Lower, and the SMA 5-one-day.  Further down, strong support is at 1.2720, which is where the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day and the PP one-week S1.  This is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. This means that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

The USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and has now moved well within the striking distance of multi-month tops set last week. Having shown

A modest pickup in the USD demand helped regain some traction.The uptick seemed rather unaffected by renewed trade uncertainty.Bulls even shrugged off a weaker tone surrounding the US bond yields.The USD/JPY pair caught some fresh bids on Tuesday and has now moved well within the striking distance of multi-month tops set last week.
 
Having shown some resilience below the very important 200-day SMA, or the 109.00 handle in the previous session, the pair managed to regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and was being supported by a modest pickup in the US Dollar demand. Focus remains on trade developments The uptick seemed rather unaffected by the mixed market mood amid political unrest in Hong Kong, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand. Even renewed US-China trade uncertainty and a weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields did little to hinder the intraday positive momentum.
 
It is worth recalling that the US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that trade talks were going “very nicely,” but there was no agreement yet on rollback of existing tariffs. Hence, the key focus will be on Trump’s appearance at the New York Economic Club later this Tuesday.
 
In the meantime, a scheduled speech by the Fed Governor Richard Clarida might influence the USD price dynamics, which coupled with the broader market risk sentiment will also be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities around the major. Technical levels to watch  

Danske Bank analysts suggest that following the dovish policy signal sent by Bank of England last week, they now expect it to deliver a 25bp cut at it

Danske Bank analysts suggest that following the dovish policy signal sent by Bank of England last week, they now expect it to deliver a 25bp cut at its next 'big' meeting in January 2020, taking the Bank Rate to 0.50%. Key Quotes “This forecast does not depend on the election outcome, although we believe a cut would be more likely in the event of a hung parliament.”

The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to September, are expected to

UK Jobs report overview The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to September, are expected to rise by 3.8%, while ex-bonuses, the wages are expected to also rise by 3.8% in the reported period. The number of people seeking jobless benefits is likely to increase by 20k in October. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.9% during the period. How could they affect GBP/USD? Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet explains, “the near-term bias might have already shifted back in favor of bullish traders, though it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the 1.2900 mark before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move. Above the mentioned handle, the pair is likely to aim towards testing the 1.2965-70 intermediate resistance before eventually darting towards reclaiming the key 1.30 psychological mark. On the flip side, the confluence resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside and is followed by support near the 1.2800 handle. Failure to defend the said support levels might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards challenging the 1.2700 handle with some intermediate support near the 1.2765 region."  Key Notes UK employment and German ZEW amongst market movers today – Rabobank UK Jobs Outlook: Win-win situation for GBP/USD amid BOE forecasts, Farage GBP Futures: room for extra upside About UK jobs The UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).  

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 12: - Tension is mounting toward President Donald Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club late

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, November 12: 
- Tension is mounting toward President Donald Trump's speech at the New York Economic Club later today. Investors will want to hear about progress in US-Sino trade talks after the president rejected reports about rolling back tariffs. The mixed market mood is allowing the greenback to recover against the yen.
- GBP/USD is holding onto Monday's significant gains, triggered by Nigel Farage's announcement. The leader of the Brexit Party has abandoned plans to field candidates in all the UK and will compete only in constituencies where Conservatives failed to win in 2017. His move raises the chances that Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins an absolute majority. However, Tories are pressuring Farage to drop out of tightly-contested seats. 
- The UK jobs report is set to show ongoing upbeat wage growth and a low unemployment rate. See UK Jobs Outlook: Win-win situation for GBP/USD amid BOE forecasts, Farage
Monday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has shown that Britain escaped a recession but 0.3% quarterly and 1% yearly expansion are dismal. 
-Euro-zone: US tariffs on EU cars will likely be delayed according to reports. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has signaled support for a European banking union and further integration. Reforms may be needed to boost growth in the old continent. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Sentiment is set to show an improvement in business confidence, albeit remaining in negative territory. 
- NZD/USD has been losing ground after Inflation Expectations came out at 1.8%, raising the chances for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates early on Wednesday.
- Gold remains on the back foot, consolidating last week's losses, while oil holding up their ground around $57.
- Cryptocurrencies are attempting a recovery after consolidating previous losses. See US recession fears retreat as markets, jobs rally

Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $2.477B, above forecasts ($2B) in September

Norway Gross Domestic Product Growth Mainland below forecasts (0.8%) in 3Q: Actual (0.7%)

Norway Gross Domestic Product Growth came in at 0%, below expectations (0.5%) in 3Q

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/CHF is showing signs of failure at the .9976 6 month downtrend and while capped here a negative

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/CHF is showing signs of failure at the .9976 6 month downtrend and while capped here a negative bias is entrenched and attention reverts back to the .9844/41 September and October lows. Key Quotes “Failure at the next lower .9799 September low would push key support at .9716/.9659 to the fore. It is the location of the January, June, midand late August lows. Below here sits the .9659 August low and the September 2018 low at .9543.” “The market is negative. Above the mid-June high at 1.0014/28 on a closing basis targets the 1.0128 mid November 2018 high and the 1.0240 April high.”  

Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting at UOB Group commented on the recent decision by the BNM. Key Quotes “Bank Negara Malaysia (BN

Senior Economist Julia Goh and Economist Loke Siew Ting at UOB Group commented on the recent decision by the BNM. Key Quotes “Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) announced a reduction in the Statutory Reserve Requirement (SRR) ratio by 50bps to 3.00% effective 16 Nov. This marks the first SRR reduction since Feb 2016”. “BNM said that the 50bps reduction in SRR is to maintain sufficient liquidity in the domestic financial system. It is not a signal on the stance of monetary policy as the OPR is the sole indicator used to signal the stance of monetary policy”. “We believe the SRR cut comes amid a moderation in domestic liquidity as broad money supply slows and outflows in foreign portfolio funds persist. We estimate about MYR7.4bn of liquidity will be released into the banking system with the 50bps cut in SRR”. “Going forward, we believe that BNM will continue to monitor domestic liquidity conditions closely and act when necessary. The timing of the recent announcement suggests that any adjustments to SRR can be done any time and not necessarily coincide with the MPC meeting. The last time when SRR was reduced by more than once within a year was during the global financial crisis in 2008/09 to a low of 1.00%. At this juncture, BNM does not expect an economic recession scenario for 2020”. “Given signs of moderate economic activity in 3Q-4Q and downside risks to global growth, we have pencilled in another “preemptive” 25bps cut in the OPR to 2.75% by mid-2020. This is to safeguard the official growth projection of 4.8% in 2020. The government’s latest economic measures will offer additional support. While the latest developments of an interim US-China trade deal are deemed positive, the possibility of a full resolution in the near term remains low and may take a negative turn if both countries are unable to resolve contentious issues”.

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9% in September (market 3.9%) after last month's unexpected n

Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the UK’s unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9% in September (market 3.9%) after last month's unexpected nudge higher. Key Quotes “For wage growth, we look for ex-bonus wages to edge up a touch to 3.9% y/y (mkt 3.8%), with underlying private sector regular pay growth holding steady at 4.0% y/y. While there are signs from other surveys that the UK labour market may start to deteriorate further, the evidence will likely be slow to build given the lags in the data. (This month's data is a 3m MA of July-Sept figures.)”

According to a letter seen by Politico’s editor, Malmström last week rejected a request from her US counterpart Lighthizer for a mini trade deal. The

According to a letter seen by Politico’s editor, the European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Malmström last week rejected a request from her US counterpart Lighthizer for a mini trade deal. The agreement, which was to be struck ahead of a deadline for Trump to impose tariffs on European cars this Wednesday.

In light of advanced data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume shrunk by nearly 1.1K contracts and almost 47.5K contracts,

In light of advanced data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, open interest and volume shrunk by nearly 1.1K contracts and almost 47.5K contracts, respectively, on Monday. USD/JPY looks supported around 109.00 The recent correction lower in USD/JPY was in tandem with declining open interest and volume in the safe haven JPY, noting that further appreciation of the safe haven looks unlikely for the time being. That said, the pair is expected to meet decent and initial contention around the 109.00 neighbourhood, where sits the key 100-day SMA.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that EUR/USD held steady yesterday, having recently eroded the 55 day ma and the 50% retracement the mar

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that EUR/USD held steady yesterday, having recently eroded the 55 day ma and the 50% retracement the market has an uphill battle to stabilise and recover. Key Quotes “It has now failed for the past 4 weeks at the 1.1180 level, and near term rallies will need to regain 1.1100 in order to trigger a retest of 1.1180. The move lower has neutralised the chart– it is unclear if the market will recover from here to the 200 day ma at 1.1186 and the top of the channel at 1.1269 (however this is slightly favoured as we suspect the slide lower was just an ‘a-b-c’ correction).” “Or if we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0865 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement before a sustained recovery is seen.” “Below 1.0879 we have the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814.”

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted investors added nearly 4.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Monday, reversing at th

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted investors added nearly 4.2K contracts to their open interest positions on Monday, reversing at the same time four consecutive drops. Volume followed suit and increased by around 24.5K contracts. GBP/USD now targets the 1.30 regionCable surged on Monday on the back of positive headlines regarding the December elections. The up move was accompanied by rising open interest and volume, opening the door to extra gains in the near term to, initially, the psychological 1.30 mark.

Danske Bank analysts point out that after the surprisingly dovish policy message from Bank of England last week, the UK jobs report for September will

Danske Bank analysts point out that after the surprisingly dovish policy message from Bank of England last week, the UK jobs report for September will be interesting today, as the past couple of months have shown decreasing employment. Key Quotes “In Continental Europe, the ZEW indicator for November will be released. Last month the expectations - current conditions spread turned positive again for the first time since May, boding well for a further stabilisation in PMI manufacturing. A further improvement today will strengthen this signal.” “Central bank speakers from the ECB (Coeuré and Mersch) and the Fed (Harker and Clarida) will also be scrutinised by markets for any news. Yesterday we updated our Fed call, now expecting only one more cut in 3 to 6 months (previously three more cuts).” “In Scandinavia, Swedish labour statistics and inflation expectations as well as Norwegian Q3 GDP and wage growth figures are in focus.”

Open interest in EUR futures markets went down by just 700 contracts at the beginning of the week, reversing five consecutive daily builds according t

Open interest in EUR futures markets went down by just 700 contracts at the beginning of the week, reversing five consecutive daily builds according to preliminary figures from CME Group. In the same line, volume shrunk for the second day in a row, now by around 30.3K contracts. EUR/USD seen struggling near the 55-day SMAEUR/USD is looking to extend the recovery from Friday’s 3-week lows amidst shrinking open interest and volume. That said, the pair still needs to surpass the key 55-day SMA in the 1.1040 region to allow for extra gains to levels beyond 1.1100 the figure.

FX option expiries for Nov 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 1.5bn 1.1025 537m 1.1075 835m

FX option expiries for Nov 12 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 1.5bn 1.1025 537m 1.1075 835m 1.1085 558m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2925 580m

UOB Group’s Suan Teck Kin, CFA, and Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviewed the recent Chinese trade data and assessed the prospects on economic growth.

UOB Group’s Suan Teck Kin, CFA, and Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviewed the recent Chinese trade data and assessed the prospects on economic growth. Key Quotes “China’s exports (in USD terms) improved in Oct with a decline of -0.9%y/y compared to -3.2% in Sep and market expectation of -3.9%. Imports declined at a slower pace of -6.4%y/y in Oct, from -8.5% and expectation of -7.8%. As a result, overall trade balance improved to US$42.81bn, from US$39.65bn in Sep”. “YTD, China’s exports and imports (USD terms) registered contractions of 0.7% y/y and 5.1% y/y, respectively, deepening from the -0.5% and -4.9% YTD declines in Sep. In CNY terms, China’s exports gained by 2.1%y/y, reversing from the -0.7% decline registered in Sep while imports shrank -3.5%y/y from the -6.2% drop in Sep”. “While there have been increased intensity of news headlines of progress towards the conclusion of a “phase 1” US-China trade deal, it should be noted that main issues such as the rolling back of trade tariffs remain uncertain at this stage. In addition, this could be just one phase of a multiphase trade pace that could drag on for sometime. As such, this uncertainty as well risk of a breakdown in negotiations remains a concern which would continue to weigh on sentiment”. “With existing tariffs remaining in place, we keep our full-year growth forecast for China at 6.1% in 2019 and 5.9% in 2020. We expect to see conitnued weakness in China’s economic data in the near-term. This includes the upcoming release of the 3Q19 GDP (18 Oct) which we forecast at 6.0% y/y vs. 6.2% in 2Q19. This should see Chinese policymakers continue to maintain a measured pace of proactive fiscal and monetary easing, the latest of which saw the 1Y Mediumterm Lending Facility (MLF) rate nudged down by 5 bps recently”.

Rabobank analysts point out that today we get UK unemployment and average weekly earnings, which the election campaigns underway are all promising wil

Rabobank analysts point out that today we get UK unemployment and average weekly earnings, which the election campaigns underway are all promising will be going up soon. Key Quotes “We get the German ZEW survey, which will be of note in that it is analysts’ views of what other analysts think the economy is doing. Will they be swung by the recent swing in bond yields higher? Recall that while some are cheering the drop in the volume of negative-yielding debt, some others are deep underwater on that market move.” “We see the Fed’s Clarida speak on monetary policy and price stability, which should be a barrel of laughs.” “We hear from the NFIB on small business optimism, which is usually as straight talking as it gets, and where Main Street is likely to continue to ignore Wall Street and power on.” “We get to listen to President Trump speak on trade at the Economic Club of New York.”

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is looking to extend the recovery following Monday’s moder

DXY looks to reverse Monday’s pullback, trades near 98.20.Investors’ attention remains on US-China trade.Focus today will be on Trump’s speech, NFIB index, Fedspeak.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback vs. a basket of its main competitors, is looking to extend the recovery following Monday’s moderate pullback. US Dollar Index focused on trade, Trump The index shed some ground at the beginning of the week, sparking a correction lower after meeting strong resistance in recent 3-week tops around 98.40 on Friday. Jitters on the US-China trade front have re-emerged among investors in response to President Trump comments in past days, when stressed that he still made no decision regarding the roll over of part of the existing tariffs. These comments motivated investors to return to the safe havens and supported the fresh demand for gold and the Japanese yen among others. Today, all the attention will be on the speech by President Trump at the Economic Club in New York, where he could unveil some fresh details regarding the progress of the ‘Phase One’ deal. In the data space, the NFIB index will be the sole release later today. In addition, FOMC’s R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) will discuss ‘Monetary Policy, Price Stability and Bond Yields’ in Switzerland and Philly Fed P.Harker (2020 voter, dovish) will participate in a Q&A session on ‘What’s next for the US economy and the Fed?’ in New York. What to look for around USD DXY came under selling pressure after hitting multi-week highs in the 98.40 region on Friday. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade war should remain ruling the global sentiment, while the attention has now shifted to Trump’s speech later today and any remarks on the ‘Phase One’ deal. Later in the week, key data and Powell’s testimony should also help with the direction of the buck. On the broader view, the outlook on the greenback appears constructive on the back of the Fed’s renewed ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.01% at 98.22 and a break above 98.40 (monthly high Nov.8) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 97.93 (100-day SMA) seconded by 97.52 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) fell from previous -35.5% to -37.4% in October

Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relations and protests in Hong Kong welcomes the United States (US) bond traders on Tuesday.

Asian shares flash mixed messages as investors keep guessing about US-China trade, Hong Kong protests.Bonds stay under pressure after a long weekend.US President Trump’s say on the US-China and the US-EU trade relations awaited.Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relations and protests in Hong Kong welcomes the United States (US) bond traders on Tuesday. Though, rising odds for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rate cuts and China’s opening up of economy, not to forget likely good news for the EU automobiles, keep share declines under check. As a result, the MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shared ex-Japan mark near 0.40% profits while Japan’s NIKKEI cheers comments from the Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe conveying the need for extra budget to assist economic recovery. Further, Chinese markets seem to benefit from press statements that signal further opening up for the world’s second-largest economy and stabilization of the domestic currency. Moving on, markets in New Zealand took weaker than previous RBNZ Inflation Expectations as a signal of tomorrow’s rate cut while Australia’s ASX 200 and Hong Kong’s HANG SENG struggles amid the increasing doubts over US-China trade relations and the governments next action after protesters occupy junction outside Landmark mall in Central part. The US 10-year Treasury yields seesaw near 1.92% whereas Oil recovers on tensions emanating from Iran but Gold takes the rounds to multi-month low amid US dollar (USD) strength. Investors now look forward to the US President Donald Trump’s speech at the New York’s Economic Club luncheon for fresh details of the US trade relationship with China and the European Union. It should also be noted that few key Federal Reserve policymakers, including the Vice-Chair Richard Clarida, are also up for speaking and may entertain momentum traders during the rest of the day.

The market mood remained cautious amid lingering US-China trade deal concerns and ongoing Hong Kong civil unrest. The US dollar, therefore, gained gro

The market mood remained cautious amid lingering US-China trade deal concerns and ongoing Hong Kong civil unrest. The US dollar, therefore, gained ground across its main competitors, except for the pound and shared currency. Meanwhile, the Asian equities traded broadly mixed amid negative sentiment seen around the Treasury yields and Wall Street futures. The safe-haven gold consolidated the latest declines amid a broadly firmer US dollar. Across the G10 currencies, the Kiwi reversed Monday’s rally and fell sharply to two-day lows of 0.6326 after a drop in New Zealand’s inflation expectations bolstered RBNZ rate cut bets heading into Wednesday’s monetary policy decision. The AUD/USD pair traded up and down but largely unchanged around 0.6850 amid better NAB Business Survey and looming trade risks while USD/JPY consolidated the early gains to near 109.20 for the better part of the Asian trading. Meanwhile, both the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar traded with mild losses. The recovery in oil prices, however, did help limit the upside in USD/CAD. Main Topics in Asia Senior US official: The US condemns the “unjustified use of deadly force” in the latest Hong Kong violence – Sky News US Pres. Trump expected to delay auto tariff decision for 6 more months – Politico Japan considering tax system changes to encourage M&A - Asahi French Pres. Macron: Had an excellent phone conversation with US Pres. Trump Australia NAB Business Survey unexpectedly improves in October US urges China to honor commitments that Hong Kong will enjoy a high degree of autonomy RBNZ Survey: New Zealand inflation expectations fall further in Q4 Hong Kong leader Lam: Protesters 'paralysing' the city are extremely selfish PBOC Adviser Sheng: Urges for more pro-active fiscal policy and PBOC rate cuts Japanese PM Abe: Want extra budget to assist economic recovery Key Focus Ahead The main event risk for today is likely to be the speech by the US President Trump at the Economic Club of New York, scheduled at 1700 GMT. Should he mention anything on the likely US-China trade deal, a big move across the financial markets cannot be ruled out, as traders are yearning for some fresh updates on the trade issue. Also, in focus will remain the speeches by the Fed officials Clarida, Barkin, Harker and Kashkari for fresh insights into the US monetary policy outlook ahead of the Fed Chair Powell’s testimony due on Wednesday. Among other developments, the UK political drama will also continue to grab some market attention. On the data front, the UK Jobs and Wage growth figures will keep the GBP traders at 0930 GMT. Meanwhile, the German ZEW Survey for November, due at 1000 GMT, could likely hog the limelight in the European session. The NA docket, in contrast, remains mostly data-light, as full trading returns after Monday’s holiday. EUR/USD struggles below 50-DMA ahead of German ZEW, Trump EUR/USD is seen moving back and forth in a 15-pips trading range around 1.1030 ahead of the European open, having faced rejection on several attempts to regain the 1.1050 level. Focus remains on the Germany ZEW Survey and US President Trump’s speech. GBP/USD benefits from UK political plays ahead of jobs data GBP/USD seesaws near-weekly high as increasing odds of the Tory leadership favor the bulls. Sluggish risk-tone and overall USD strength tame recovery around 21-day SMA. The UK jobs report, US President Trump’s comments and Fedspeak remain in the spotlight. UK Jobs Outlook: Win-win situation for GBP/USD amid BOE forecasts, Farage The UK jobs report for September is set to show ongoing strength. Concerns from the BOE set a low bar for an upside surprise. GBP/USD has room to advance, also thanks to optimism about the elections. 5 Biggest Risks for FX this Week At this stage, few investors should be surprised by this back and forth as trade developments remain one of the greatest risk for FX trade this week.   

The latest statement is out from the Chinese Foreign Minister on the Hong Kong violence, citing that the crimes in Hong Kong must be punished.

The latest statement is out from the Chinese Foreign Minister on the Hong Kong violence, citing that the crimes in Hong Kong must be punished.

With the 21-day SMA limiting the AUD/NZD pair’s immediate declines, the quote takes the bids to 1.0810 while heading into the European session on Tuesday.

AUD/NZD recovers the previous day’s losses.A recent high, seven-month-old rising trend line acts as near-term key resistances.An ascending support line since late-August can question sellers below 21-day SMA.With the 21-day SMA limiting the AUD/NZD pair’s immediate declines, the quote takes the bids to 1.0810 while heading into the European session on Tuesday. The monthly high around 1.0870 is likely to target of the short-term buyers while an upward sloping trend line since April 17, at 1.0900, could lure bulls afterward. Should there be increased upside beyond 1.0900, October 2018 high close to 1.1000 will return to the chart. Meanwhile, pair’s declines below 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.0760 can take rest on a rising support line since August 26, at 1.0700 now. If sellers refrain from respecting 1.0700 mark, August 22 high close to 1.0620 may entertain them ahead of 1.0565/50 confluence including 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rise since August. AUD/NZD daily chart Trend: Bullish  

Analysts at ANZ notes that Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index made a U-turn last week, falling 2.1% as all the subindices were in th

Analysts at ANZ notes that Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index made a U-turn last week, falling 2.1% as all the subindices were in the negative, except future economic conditions. Key Quotes “After two weeks of strength, the financial conditions subindices faltered. Current finances fell 3.2%, while future finances declined 1.6%.” “Economic conditions subindices were mixed, with current economic conditions declining 1.6%, while future economic conditions rose a marginal 0.3%.” “The ‘Time to buy a household item’ continued with its see-saw pattern, falling 3.9% after a gain of 1.3% last week. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations (IE) remained stable at 4.0%, though the weekly reading saw an increase to back above 4%.”

Despite benefiting from the UK’s political optimism, the GBP/USD pair awaits fresh clues from monthly employment numbers while taking the bids to 1.2865.

GBP/USD seesaws near one-week high as increasing odds Tory leadership favor bulls.Sluggish risk-tone, overall USD strength tame recovery around 21-day SMA.British jobs report, US President Trump’s comments and Fedspeak in the spotlight.Despite benefiting from the UK’s political optimism, the GBP/USD pair awaits fresh clues from monthly employment numbers while taking the bids to 1.2865 ahead of the London open on Tuesday. The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s step back from 317 constituencies earlier won by Tories increase the odds of another Conservative leadership and smooth Parliament functioning after the United Kingdom’s (UK) departure from the bloc. However, the Times suggests that the Tories want extra safety while urging Mr. Farage to pull candidates from marginal Labour constituencies out of his earlier mentioned 300 polls to contest. Elsewhere, the US-China trade tension keeps the spotlight while the United States’ (US) meddling in Hong Kong protests awaits China’s response for fresh risk-off. That said, the market’s risk-tone remains sluggish with the US 10-year treasury yields being around 1.92% with most Asian stocks flashing mixed signals. Given the presence of monthly employment data on the economic calendar, traders are less likely to look for anywhere else ahead of the release. UK’s September month Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate will join October month’s Claimant Count Change to move the British pound at 09:30 AM GMT. Forecasts suggest mild weakness in Claimant Count numbers amid no change in Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. Following the data, speech from the US President and Fedspeak will be closely observed to determine the fate of US-China trade relations and the US Federal Reserve’s future moves respectively. Technical Analysis A sustained break above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2875 could trigger pair’s rise to a three-week-old falling trend-line, around 1.2945 now. On the downside, 1.2770 and 200-day SMA level of 1.2700 limit immediate declines.  

Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, notes that Australian business conditions recorded another small improvement in October, hitting a three-mon

Catherine Birch, senior economist at ANZ, notes that Australian business conditions recorded another small improvement in October, hitting a three-month high of +3.0, but it is too early to tell if this will be sustained. Key Quotes “Confidence also rose slightly to +1.7. Forward orders (up 5.1pts), profitability (up 1.6pts) and trading (up 2.4pts) all rose. Capacity utilisation recorded a slight decline to 81.7%, while the employment index and labour cost growth were largely flat.” “Most states recorded improved business conditions during the month; Queensland was the only state to deteriorate. Most states are running well below their long-run averages, with Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania in the weakest positions (smoothed using three-month averages). New South Wales has improved over the past few months to just below its long-run average.” “Mining, construction, finance, and recreation services all contributed to the monthly gain in business conditions. Manufacturing and transport were the largest detractors. Retail business conditions have been stable for the past few months but remain deep in negative territory. Mining business conditions are marginally above their long-run averages but all other industries are in negative territory (smoothed using three-month averages).”

Singapore Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 1.9%, above forecasts (-1.4%) in September

Singapore Retail Sales (YoY) came in at -2.2%, above forecasts (-6.1%) in September

EUR/USD is seen moving back and forth in a 15-pips trading range around 1.1030 ahead of the European open, having faced rejection on several attempts

EUR/USD stuck in range as USD sees a steady recovery. US-China trade deal woes, Hong Kong unrest dents risk appetite. German ZEW Survey to boost the EUR bulls ahead of Trump’s speech? EUR/USD is seen moving back and forth in a 15-pips trading range around 1.1030 ahead of the European open, having faced rejection on several attempts to regain the 1.1050 level. EUR/USD: Bearish while below 50-DMA at 1.1042 The spot trades modestly flat in the familiar trading range on the 1.10 handle, with the upside attempts capped by the broad-based US dollar recovery. The resurgence of the safe-haven demand amid lingering US-China trade deal concerns and the Hong Kong civil unrest aided the overnight recovery in the greenback. Meanwhile, on the EUR-side of the equation, the inconclusive outcome of the Spanish general election combined with Eurozone economic growth worries continue to remain a dragged on the common currency. However, the downside remains capped amid expectations of an improvement in the German ZEW Survey, which is seen rebounding from -22.8 to -13.0 in November. Further, the latest Politico report, citing the EU officials that US President Trump is expected to delay auto tariff decision for 6 more months, also lend some support to the EUR bulls. Markets now eagerly await the German macro news and some clarity on the US-China trade front for fresh trading impetus while Trump’s speech later today at 1700 GMT could also direct the next moves in the spot. EUR/USD Technical levels to consider  

According to Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, New Zealand’s further decline in inflation expectations will concern the RBNZ and conseque

According to Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, New Zealand’s further decline in inflation expectations will concern the RBNZ and consequently they now expect an OCR cut tomorrow. Key Quotes “The RBNZ Survey of Expectations has revealed a further decline in inflation expectations. This alters the balance of available information ahead of tomorrow's OCR decision. Accordingly, we are reverting to forecasting an OCR cut tomorrow (previously on hold).” “If the RBNZ does cut, we would expect no explicit signal of future follow-up cuts, similar to the May and August MPSs. We would expect the OCR forecast to be around 0.75%, again not signalling any intent to cut again. However, we would expect the RBNZ to remain open to the possibility of further cuts with a phrase like “There is scope for further fiscal and monetary easing if necessary.” “We would also expect the RBNZ to try to rectify these flagging inflation expectations with something like the August phrase: “Our actions today demonstrate our ongoing commitment to ensure inflation increases to the mid-point of the target range.” “We continue to forecast that 0.75% will be the low in the OCR – rising house prices and an associated firming in the economy are expected to remove any reason to cut below that point. We are now forecasting no change in the OCR over 2020 and 2021.”  

ANZ analysts note that New Zealand’s two-year-ahead inflation expectations dipped further below 2% in Q4, coming in at 1.80%, the lowest level since l

ANZ analysts note that New Zealand’s two-year-ahead inflation expectations dipped further below 2% in Q4, coming in at 1.80%, the lowest level since late-2016. Key Quotes “Long-term inflation expectation measures were stable near 2%.” “Across other elements of the survey, GDP growth expectations one- and two-years ahead were broadly stable near 2.15%. House price inflation expectations rose. In one year’s time, the OCR is expected to be at 0.61%.” “The RBNZ will be concerned that inflation expectations have fallen further below 2%, despite the OCR cuts so far this year. The RBNZ’s survey supports our call for an OCR cut tomorrow and further cuts next year.”  

The USD/IDR pair’s run-up to the month-start high fails to cross near-term key resistance confluence during early Tuesday.

USD/IDR fails to extend recovery gains beyond key resistance-confluence.200-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci retracement adds to the upside barrier.July/September lows limit the near-term declines.The USD/IDR pair’s run-up to the month-start high fails to cross near-term key resistance confluence during early Tuesday. The quote declines to 14,058 by the press time. Considering the pair’s gradual downward grind, 14,000 and 13,970 are likely immediate supports that sellers can look for ahead of targeting July/September lows near 13,880. In a case where bears keep dominating below 13,880, June month’s drop to 13,950 can be recalled. On the contrary, pair’s sustained rise beyond 14,110/20 area including 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a descending trend line since early August could aim for 14,160/65 confluence that comprising 200-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of June-August upside. Should there be a price recovery beyond 14,165, buyers can target October month top near 14,280. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Bearish  

China’s Premier Li Keqiang recently crossed wires, via Global Times, while sharing his talks with the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

China’s Premier Li Keqiang recently crossed wires, via Global Times, while sharing his talks with the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Bangkok. Key quotes China and Australia should step up joint efforts to enhance mutual understanding and trust, properly handle differences, and return bilateral ties to the normal track. The Australian side can meet China halfway and work hard to ensure a sound and steady development of bilateral relations. These are positive remarks encouraging concrete steps toward real improvement in bilateral relations. They came after two years and a half when China-Australia relations started to crater and went in an undesirable direction.  the downward spiral is against the interests of the two countries and people and needs to be stopped. FX implications While the news fails to have any direct impact on the AUD/USD pair, this could favor the Aussie pair’s recovery as upbeat comments from Australia’s largest customer becomes positive for the Australian dollar (AUD).

With the resumption of the US bond trading, the USD registers broad recovery. The USD/JPY, being no exception, takes the bids near 109.20.

USD/JPY respects the broad USD strength.Hong Kong protests, trade tension keep challenging risk tone.US President Trump’s comments on the trade deal with China in focus.With the resumption of the US bond trading, the USD registers broad recovery. The USD/JPY, being no exception, takes the bids near 109.20 during early Tuesday. The US bond traders’ return, after Monday’s Veterans Day Holiday, witnesses sluggish market conditions amid uncertainty over the US-China trade deal and protests in Hong Kong. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop one basis point to 1.92% while Asian stocks flash mixed signals. That said, the US dollar (USD) regain its strength as markets keep favoring the greenback in search of a risk safety. Also contributing to the pair’s weakness could be Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Shizo Abe’s comments supporting the need for a budget to assist economic recovery. Investors largely ignored expectations of the United States (US) tariff roll back from the European Union (EU) automobiles and upbeat comments from Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura. While trade/Hong Kong issues will keep traders entertained, US President Donald Trump’s comments from the Economic Club of New York’s lunch will also be the key to watch. The US President is widely anticipated to shed light on the much-needed US-China trade relations and the US tariff policy. Technical Analysis Bulls targeting 110.00 will look for entry beyond the recent high of 109.50 whereas 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 108.75 could act as immediate support.  

Japanese PM Abe: Want extra budget to assist economic recovery More to come ...

Japanese PM Abe: Want extra budget to assist economic recovery  More to come ...

Analysts at Morgan Stanley are seen rolling back their calls for higher gold prices in the first half of 2020 on expectations of a US-China trade agre

Analysts at Morgan Stanley are seen rolling back their calls for higher gold prices in the first half of 2020 on expectations of a US-China trade agreement. Key Quotes: “H1 2020 outlook is for 1515 USD/oz. The risk of gold falling toward its bear case of USD1394/oz in H1 of 2020 if tariffs are rolled back. Lower prices will, though, attract buyers back in. Expects a weaker USD to support gold near term. Fed to hold through next year …. will pressure haven assets, benefit equities.”

Sheng Songcheng, an adviser to the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank, presses for more PBOC rate cuts and fiscal reforms by the

Sheng Songcheng, an adviser to the People's Bank of China (PBOC), the Chinese central bank, presses for more PBOC rate cuts and fiscal reforms by the government to counter the deflationary pressures. Key Quotes: China does not face the same deflationary pressures that exist overseas. Fiscal policy measures should be the first consideration. Monetary policy playing a supporting role. Policymakers should pursue fiscal solutions as a priority, including front-loading the issuance of local government bonds to support infrastructure projects. Continued cuts to taxes and fees. PBOC cuts interest rate on one-year MLF to 3.25% from 3.30% USD/CNH pulls back from monthly resistance trendline amid Hong Kong concerns

The AUD/USD pair enjoyed good two-way businesses so far in Asia this Tuesday, having risen to 0.6854 highs before taking a sharp U-turn to hit fresh n

Aussie takes a U-turn, as risk-off returns on trade, Hong Kong woes.US dollar firms up across the board, three-week tops back on sight.Next of note remains Trump’s speech and trade developments. The AUD/USD pair enjoyed good two-way businesses so far in Asia this Tuesday, having risen to 0.6854 highs before taking a sharp U-turn to hit fresh nine-day lows near 0.6835 region, where it now wavers. AUD/USD fails to resist above the 100-DMA barrier The Aussie dollar failed to sustain its uptick above the 100-DMA barrier, now at 0.6842, which was regained following a positive surprise seen in the Australian NAB Business Survey released earlier today at 0030 GMT. Australia NAB Business Survey unexpectedly improves in October The latest leg down was mainly driven by a broad-based US dollar rebound, as concerns over the US-China trade deal and Hong Kong’s civil unrest resurged and fueled a flight to safety, with markets seeking protection in the US currency. The US dollar index recovery from the recent lows of 98.13 gained traction last hours, now sending the rates towards three-week highs of 98.40. The AUD/USD pair also tracked the fresh selling seen in its OZ counterpart, the Kiwi, after the RBNZ survey showed New Zealand’s inflation expectations falling further in the fourth quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, rising industry expectations that the RBA could announce quantitative easing next year also likely added to the weight on Aussie. RBA QE on its way by end-2020 – JP MorganThe spot will remain at mercy of the USD dynamics and risk trends in the face of looming trade risks and heading into the key event risk for Tuesday, the US President Trump’s speech. Any mention on the likely US-China trade deal during his speech (at 1700 GMT) is likely to have a major impact on the risk sentiment and dollar trades. AUD/USD Technical levels to consider  

Following its bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current month upside, USD/CHF confronts near-term key resistance confluence.

The USD/CHF pair’s recent recovery confronts 100-HMA, adjacent resistance line.38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 0.9900 act as nearby supports.Following its bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the current month upside, USD/CHF confronts near-term key resistance confluence while taking the bids to 0.9942 during early Tuesday. However, a sustained break of 0.9945 becomes necessary for the quote to extend recent recovery towards the support-turned-resistance line of 0.9960 and then to a monthly high near 0.9980. Given the bullish signal from Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) supporting buyers beyond 0.9980, 1.0000 psychological magnet will be on their radars ahead of October month top near 1.0030. Alternatively, pair’s declines below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9930 highlights 200-Hour Simple Moving Average (HMA) as the next key support, at 0.9910 now, a break of which could fetch the quote to 0.9895 and then towards monthly bottom surrounding 0.9850. USD/CHF hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, with the key headlines found below. Protesters 'paralysing' the city are ext

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, with the key headlines found below. Protesters 'paralysing' the city are extremely selfish. Hopes all universities and schools will urge students not to participate in violence. The govt is still doing its best to hold a fair, safe and orderly district council election. Her comments come a day after police shot a protester and a man was set on fire in some of the most dramatic scenes to grip the city during the six months of civil unrest.

Following a downbeat reading of the RBNZ’s inflation expectations, NZD/USD declines to 0.6342 during early Tuesday.

NZD/USD declines nearly 15 pips after RBNZ’s Inflation Expectations came in below prior data.50 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements could entertain sellers ahead of challenging them with a six-week-old rising trend-line.Following a downbeat reading of the RBNZ’s inflation expectations, NZD/USD declines to 0.6342 during early Tuesday.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations for the fourth quarter (Q4) lag below 1.86% prior to 1.80% for two years. The data suggests a bearish bias of the New Zealand’s central bank ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision. With this, the kiwi keeps being under pressure. Hence, 50% Fibonacci retracement of October-November upside, at 0.6335, can offer immediate support to the pair ahead of dragging it to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6300. Though, an upward sloping trend line since October started, at 0.6295, will restrict pair’s further declines, if not then mid-October lows near 0.6240 and the previous month bottom around 0.6200 will return to charts. In a case prices rise beyond 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.6385, a fresh rise to 0.6400 and 0.6440 can be anticipated while doubting pair’s further run-up beyond the monthly top of 0.6467. NZD/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

According to the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey, New Zealand's both one-year and two-year inflation expectations dropped further in

According to the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) survey, New Zealand's both one-year and two-year inflation expectations dropped further in the fourth quarter. Business managers forecast annual inflation averaging 1.66% over the coming year vs. 1.71% previous. Two-year inflation expectations, seen as the time frame when RBNZ policy action will filter through to prices, fell to 1.80% from 1.86% last.

New Zealand RBNZ Inflation Expectations (QoQ) down to 1.8% in 4Q from previous 1.86%

The JP Morgan analysts foresee the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcing quantitative easing (QE) by the end of next year after the Australian ce

The JP Morgan analysts foresee the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcing quantitative easing (QE) by the end of next year after the Australian central bank revised down the economic forecasts and assumptions in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy last week. Key Quotes: “The current policy settings in Australia won't achieve the macro-economic outcomes that are consistent with the RBA's objectives For some time, we have forecast that the RBA will cut rates by a further 25 basis points in February 2020. We now add quantitative easing to this forecast, and anticipate that the RBA will deliver a package of unconventional monetary policy measures in the fourth quarter of 2020." The Aussie seems to have shredded the early gains to now print fresh nine-day lows near 0.6840, having breached the 100-DMA at 0.6846.

The US-China trade story recent got another negative turn with the US condemning Hong Kong protests and pushes China to respect the nation’s autonomy.

USD/CNH fails to hold on to recovery gains as protests in Hong Kong magnify US-China trade pessimism.Trump’s comments from the New York Economic Club luncheon will keep the spotlight.The US-China trade story recent got another negative turn with the US condemning Hong Kong protests and pushes China to respect the nation’s autonomy. With this, the USD/CNH pair fails to cross a monthly trend line resistance while trading around 7.0028 during Tuesday’s Asian session. While the US President’s refrain from reiterating the previous signals to tariff cut on Chinese goods triggered initial risk aversion during Monday, renewed protests in Hong Kong and the US meddling dim prospects of a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies. The US State Department’s latest statement urges China to respect commitments that Hong Kong will enjoy a high degree of autonomy. The Trump administration also condemns violence in the protests. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields remain on the back foot to 1.92% while Asian stocks also mark losses during early hours of trading. On the economic front, China’s inflation numbers flashed mixed signals during the weekend and hence traders will wait for Thursday’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales for fresh impulse. However, the bearish bias of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), as conveyed through recent USD/CNY fixes and comments from the policymakers, could keep traders entertained. Looking at the near-term, the United States (US) President Donald Trump is up for speaking at the Economic Club Luncheon in New York and will be observed closely for any hints to trade talks with China. Technical Analysis Unless providing a daily closing beyond the monthly falling trend line, at 7.0055 now, prices are less likely to aim for current month top near 7.0520. Alternatively, June month high around 6.9600 could offer immediate key support to the pair.  

On Tuesday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9988 versus Monday’s fix at 6.9933.

On Tuesday, China’s central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), set the Yuan reference rate at 6.9988 versus Monday’s fix at 6.9933. Meanwhile, the PBOC skips the reverse repos today while keeping the neutral position in open market operations (OMOs).

While extending its sustained run-up beyond 200-bar SMA, USD/CAD rises to the fresh four weeks high of 1.3242 by the press time of Asian session on Tuesday.

USD/CAD holds on to recovery gains beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of October month downpour.200-bar SMA acts as immediate key support ahead of rising wedge’s lower line.While extending its sustained run-up beyond 200-bar SMA, USD/CAD rises to the fresh four weeks high of 1.3242 by the press time of Asian session on Tuesday. Even so, prices are yet to clear an upward sloping trend-line since October 17, at 1.3267 now, to defy the bearish chart pattern and stretch the north-run towards 1.3300 and October month tops near 1.3350. Alternatively, pair’s slip beneath 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3230 highlights 1.3195/90 as the key support confluence as it comprises 50% Fibonacci retracement level and 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA). During the quote’s additional weakness below 1.3190, the bearish formation’s support line around 1.3180 becomes the key as the downside break of which could recall bears targeting 1.3040 and 1.3000 round figure. However, a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3110 could offer an intermediate halt to the pair’s downside between 1.3180 and 1.3040. USD/CAD 4-hour chart Trend: pullback expected  

The US Statement Department Spokeswoman was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US urges China to honor commitments that Hong Kong

The US Statement Department Spokeswoman was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the US urges China to honor commitments that Hong Kong will enjoy a high degree of autonomy.

Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the decline in consumer demand is not as big as

Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the decline in consumer demand is not as big as the previous sales tax hike. Last month, he had expressed his concerns over the negative impact of the sales tax hike on the Japanese consumer sentiment. Japan’s Nishimura: There are worries sales tax hike may weigh on consumer sentiment Despite the drop in the S&P 500 futures and Treasury yields in early dealing, the USD/JPY pair appears to have caught fresh bids, as the bulls now look to test the 5-DMA barrier at 109.16 amid a positive start to the Japanese equities.

Despite upbeat readings of Australian business sentiment data, AUD/USD stay mildly on the bids around 0.6850 during early Tuesday.

AUD/USD bounces off 100-day SMA but still remains below 21-day SMA.Australia’s NAB Business data marked upbeat readings for October.Risk-off regains market attention amid trade/political pessimism.Despite upbeat readings of Australian business sentiment data, AUD/USD stay mildly on the bids around 0.6850 during early Tuesday. October month Business Confidence and Business Conditions from National Bank of Australia (NAB) cross marked forecast for an unchanged reading of 0 and 2 to 2 and 3 respectively. While better the forecast sentiment data helps the Aussie to bounce off 100-day SMA, trade/political tension keep recovery in check. Recent updates from Hong Kong, via Reuters, suggest that police use Rubber Bullets to counter the protesters' tear gas firings. That said, the US official condemns the use of deadly force the latest protests, which in turn might push China to reiterate its call to the US to stay away from their domestic politics. As a result, deteriorating odds for the US-China trade deal could have an additional burden. Elsewhere, market sentiment shrugs off speculations that the US President Donald Trump will drop tariffs on the European Union (EU) automobiles as well as upbeat conversations between the US and French leaders. It’s worth mentioning that the US 10-year treasury yields shed nearly two basis points (bps) to 1.91% after the extended weekend stopped bond trading on Monday. Also, Wall Street marked mild losses and S&P 500 Futures follow the suit while portraying the market’s risk-off. Given the initial reaction to the Aussie data, markets could continue looking for fresh clues from the US-China trade front and global politics amid a lack of major data/events up for publishing on the economic calendar during the Asian session. However, comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the United States (US) President Donald Trump, at the Economic Club lunch in New York, will be the key to follow during the later part of the day. Technical Analysis Even if 100 and 21-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) limit the pair’s immediate moves between 0.6847 and 0.6855 respectively, overall weakness in trade sentiment, coupled with failures to cross 200-day SMA level of 0.6944, could keep bears hopeful for 0.6800.  

Australia’s October Business Survey released by the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed: Confidence in October arrived at 2 vs. 0 expect and 0 seen i

Australia’s October Business Survey released by the National Australia Bank (NAB) showed: Confidence in October arrived at 2 vs. 0 expect and 0 seen in September. Conditions in October stood at 3 vs. 2 expected and 2 in September.           More to come ...

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions came in at 3, above forecasts (2) in October

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence came in at 2, above forecasts (0) in October

Reuters reports the latest comments from the French President Macron, as he says that he had an excellent phone conversation with Trump. He further ad

Reuters reports the latest comments from the French President Macron, as he says that he had an excellent phone conversation with Trump. He further added that they discussed Syria, Iran and NATO. The above headlines have little to no impact on the risk sentiment, with USD/JPY trading flat just ahead of the 109 handle. S&P 500 futures are down -0.10% so far. Next of relevance remains the speech by Trump, as he is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York later in the NA session.

With the sentiment still undermined by US President Trump’s last week's comments on the US-China trade deal, the USD/JPY pair trades modestly flat jus

USD/JPY undermined by trade uncertainty, USD weakness, Hong Kong chaos.Risks remain skewed to the downside while below 5-DMA at 109.16.Markets await Trump’s speech and Fedspeak for fresh trading impetus. With the sentiment still undermined by US President Trump’s last week's comments on the US-China trade deal, the USD/JPY pair trades modestly flat just ahead of the 109-handle stepping into the Asian opening. Risk trends to play a pivotal role amid trade deal doubts The spot tracks the Wall Street action overnight and treads cautiously around the 200-DMA at 109.03 amid a quiet Asian schedule while the market mood will continue to get influenced by the lack of certainty on the US-China trade deal and the Hong Kong chaos. With little progress on the trade front, markets remain weighed down by the recent remarks from the White House Adviser Navarro, as he quoted the Trump, as saying that he didn’t agree to anything related to tariffs. Meanwhile, the US Administration official condemned Monday’s Hong Kong violence after two protesters were shot by police amid ongoing demonstrations.Further, the bears continue to limit the upside attempts, with the US dollar weakness overnight likely to add to the downbeat tone around the spot. The USD index consolidates the correction from three-week of 98.40 near 98.20 at Tokyo open, down -0.15% so far.   Attention now turns towards Trump’s speech and speeches by the Fed officials scheduled later on Friday, in absence of relevant macro data out of the US. The US President is due to speak at the Economic Club of New York around 1700 GMT, with the focus likely to be on his any comments on the US-China trade issue. USD/JPY Technical levels to consider  

Despite on-going doubts concerning the US-China trade deal and geopolitical tensions elsewhere, Gold prices stop further declines below multi-month low.

Gold refrains from further declines amid a lack of fresh catalysts.Headlines concerning Hong Kong, the Middle East and US-China trade relations highlight market risk.Brexit/receding odds of the US President Trump’s impeachment challenges risk aversion.Despite on-going doubts concerning the US-China trade deal and geopolitical tensions elsewhere, Gold prices stop further declines below multi-month low as it takes rounds to $1,455 amid the initial Asian session on Tuesday. While a lack of major catalysts and absence of the US/Canadian traders limited market’s moves on Monday, receding political pessimism at the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) President Donald Trump’s readiness to conquer impeachment charges seem to weigh on the yellow metal. Further, recent headlines from Politico suggests that the US President Trump will drop tariffs on the EU automobiles after the current relaxation period gets over on Wednesday. On the contrary, the US official’s comment over the Hong Kong protests might push China to reiterate strong retaliation to anyone challenge its “one country, two systems” motto. Also likely adding to the risk-off could be few more traces of uranium from Iran that could lead to fresh US-Iran tension. Although the US treasury markets were off by the time of writing, losses of Wall Street and the market’s initial reaction to the recent risk events could lead to the bullion’s recovery when the session gets active, hopefully after Tokyo open. Traders will also keep a close eye on the Fedspeak and the President Trump’s speech for fresh direction while also not ignoring second-tier data on the economic calendar. Technical Analysis August 05 low and July 03 high together offer $1,436 as the strong support to watch during the safe-haven’s further declines while $1,474/75 could act as an immediate upside barrier.  

Japan Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) came in at 2.5% below forecasts (2.6%) in October

The GBP/USD pair’s recent pullback from 50/100-bar SMA confluence requires confirmation.

GBP/USD trades below 50/100-bar SMA confluence.A descending trend-line since October 21 adds to the resistance.Sellers will look for entry below the recent low.The GBP/USD pair’s recent pullback from 50/100-bar SMA confluence requires confirmation. The quote current takes the rounds to 1.2855 by the press time of early Asian session on Tuesday. Despite pair’s U-turn from the key Simple Moving Averages (SMA), sellers await entry below the recent low near 1.2770 in order to aim for early October highs near 1.2710. During the bear’s extended rule below 1.2710, 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of October month upside, at 1.2603 and 1.2506 respectively, will gain the market attention. On the upside, pairs’ successful run-up beyond 1.2880 will confront the three-week-old falling resistance line, at 1.2943 now, a break of which could escalate the recovery towards 1.3000 round-figure mark. However, bulls will wait for a sustained move beyond October high, near 1.3015/20, to aim for May month top surrounding 1.3180. GBP/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) opened Tuesday’s Asian trading on the back foot, extending Monday’s bearish momentum below the 57 handle, as the sentiment

Oil extends weakness into early Asian trading, stays below 57.00.  US-China trade uncertainty offset Cushing inventories drawdown. Trades headlines and US weekly crude supplies report to offer next direction.  WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) opened Tuesday’s Asian trading on the back foot, extending Monday’s bearish momentum below the 57 handle, as the sentiment remains undermined by a lack of clarity on the likely US-China trade deal. The absence of any progress on the US-China trade front is re-igniting concerns over the global economic slowdown and its eventual impact on the oil demand growth outlook. This comes after the US President Trump said over the weekend that there had been incorrect reporting about US willingness to lift tariffs as part of a “phase one” agreement. The black gold remains under pressure despite the broad-based weakness in the US dollar, in the wake of tumbling US equities and Treasury yields overnight. A weaker greenback makes the USD-denominated oil cheaper for the holders in foreign currencies. Meanwhile, the bulls yearn for some support from a drop in crude inventories at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI. The latest data released by the market intelligence firm Genscape showed that crude stockpiles about 1.2 million barrels in the week to Nov. 8, snapping five straight weeks of increase. Looking ahead, the barrel of WTI will continue to track the US-China trade-related headlines that continue to direct the near-term price direction. Also, in focus remains the US weekly Crude Stocks data due on the cards later this week. WTI Levels to watch    

Nigel Farage’s gift to the Tories seems to propel the GBP/JPY pair despite broadly dull sentiment. The quote takes the bids to 140.20 during early Tuesday.

GBP/JPY benefits from Brexit party leaders’ favor to Conservatives.US-China trade tussle exerts downside pressure.UK employment numbers to decorate economic calendar.Nigel Farage’s gift to the Tories seems to propel the GBP/JPY pair despite broadly dull sentiment. The quote takes the bids to 140.20 during early Tuesday morning in Asia. The Brexit party leader’s statement that he will not contest against the ruling Conservatives while showing readiness to stand firm on 300 seats to challenge others propelled the British pound (GBP) the previous day. The reason mentioned by the hard Brexiteer was to facilitate the party’s say in the parliament. The same will help the United Kingdom’s (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to anticipate a clear victory in December month’s election and also increases the hope of his Brexit deal to get through the parliament during January. The quote largely ignored downbeat concerns for the trade deal between the United States (US) and China while also shrugged off geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Hong Kong. While the absence of the US bond traders limited market’s moves, Wall Street closed in negative on Monday. Investors will now look forward to the UK’s September month Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate while also keeping an eye over October month’s Claimant Count Change for fresh direction. “ We look for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.9% in September (mkt 3.9%) after last month's unexpected nudge higher. For wage growth, we look for ex-bonus wages to edge up a touch to 3.9% y/y (mkt 3.8%), with underlying private sector regular pay growth holding steady at 4.0% y/y. While there are signs from other surveys that the UK labor market may start to deteriorate further, the evidence will likely be slow to build given the lags in the data, (this month's data is a 3m MA of July-Sept figures,)” says TD Securities. On the geopolitical front, the US-China trade story and the Hong Kong protests could keep the traders entertained. Technical Analysis A daily close below October 24 low of 138.87 will recall June month high surrounding 138.30/25 whereas 140.80 holds the key to October month top near 141.50.  

Following its failure to stay strong beyond 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August downside, AUD/JPY drops towards 21-day SMA.

AUD/JPY keeps it below 50% Fibonacci retracement, 200-day SMA.Sellers look for entry below 21-day SMA to justify bearing signal from MACD.Following its failure to stay strong beyond 50% Fibonacci retracement of April-August downside, AUD/JPY drops towards 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as it takes rounds to 74.70 during early Asian morning on Tuesday. The quote needs to close below a 21-day SMA level of 74.54 to test 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 74.10. Though, October 24 low near 73.92 could restrict pair’s further declines. If 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) keep flashing bearish signals past-73.92, an ascending trend line since August 24, at 73.18 now, will gain seller’s attention. On the upside, 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 75.37 and 200-day SMA mark around 75.72 restrict pair’s near-term advances. In a case where prices rally beyond 75.72, July month high near 76.30 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 76.65 will be on the buyers’ radar. AUD/JPY daily chart Trend: Sideways  

The Japanese newspaper, Asahi, carries latest headlines on Tuesday, citing that the Japanese government is considering tax system changes to encourage

The Japanese newspaper, Asahi, carries latest headlines on Tuesday, citing that the Japanese government is considering tax system changes to encourage mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Note that PM Abe’s government delivered the much-awaited sales tax hike last month that boosted the country’s household spending at the fastest pace since comparable data available from 2001. Japan’s Household Spending rises 9.5% YoY in Sept, fastest pace on record

Although AUD/USD has been under pressure for the last two days, mainly due to the trade/political tension, the quote stays above 100-day SMA.

AUD/USD refrains from breaking 100-day SMA support despite recent pessimism surrounding the US-China trade relations.Geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and the Middle East exert downside pressure to the sentiment.NAB Business Confidence and Conditions data, Fedspeak and Trump’s comments will be in the spotlight.Although AUD/USD has been under pressure for the last two days, mainly due to the trade/political tension, the quote stays above 100-day SMA, currently around 0.6855, as traders await fresh impulse. Holiday in the United States (US) limited the market’s reaction to uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal and geopolitical tension concerning Hong Kong and the Middle East. The recent news from Politico and the Sky News were also mixed as the former signals receding trade tension between the Eurozone and the US while the later is likely to worsen the mood of the US-China trade watchers after a senior US official raised voiced against the Hong Kong issue. It’s worth mentioning that China doesn’t like anyone, especially the US, interfering in its “one country, two systems” motto. Looking forward, investors will keep an eye over the opening of the US government bond trading for fresh reaction to the latest risk sentiment. On the economic front, Australia’s October month National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Business Confidence and Business Conditions, likely to stay unchanged at 0 and 2 respectively, will be followed for immediate direction. Comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be closely observed to forecast the Fed’s next move while the US President Donald Trump is also up for speaking at the Economic Club of New York and could fill the trade headlines. Technical Analysis Only if the prices close below 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 0.6847 sellers can take aim at the upward sloping trend line since October-start, at 0.6814, otherwise chances of pair’s recovery to 0.6885, 0.6900 and monthly top near 0.6930 remain on the cards.  

The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). The Fiber, last week, after registering its wors

EUR/USD is ending Monday little changed, trading below the 1.1051 level.The level to beat for sellers is the 1.1028 support level.  EUR/USD daily chart   The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DMAs). The Fiber, last week, after registering its worst weekly drop since August, is starting the week pulling back up, slightly.   EUR/USD four-hour chart   The Euro remains under selling pressure below the main SMAs on the four-hour chart. The market is weak and a break below 1.1028 support level could open the doors to further losses towards the 1.1000 figure and the 1.0965 price level, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.    EUR/USD 30-minute chart   EUR/USD is trading below the 100 and 200 SMAs, suggesting a bearish momentum in the near term. Resistance is seen at the 1.1051 level and at the 1.1063/74 resistance zone, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.     Additional key levels  

Following a day filled with trade doubts, Politico recently came out with news, while relying on a person familiar with the matter about the US tariffs on EU.

Following a day filled with trade doubts, Politico recently came out with news, while relying on a person familiar with the matter, mentioning that the United States (US) President Donald Trump is expected to announce this week that he is putting off a decision on whether to impose tariffs on European Union autos for another six months. The report also clears that President Trump faces a Wednesday deadline on whether to slap duties on imports of vehicles. Key quotes That would avoid a new bruising dispute with one of the United States' biggest trading partners, just as Trump is trying to put out another trade fire by striking an initial deal with China. But it would also set the stage for Trump to revisit the controversial trade issue in the throes of next year's presidential campaign. The person with familiar the decision cautioned there is always uncertainty surrounding Trump’s final determination when it comes to trades and tariffs. But barring some unforeseen development, the president is expected to announce another six-month delay, the person said. A White House spokesperson declined to say what action Trump could take this week, and Lighthizer's office did not respond to questions on the issue. An industry official said businesses have also been led to believe by White House officials that Trump will not impose duties this week, particularly after the Japan deal was reached. FX implications While there was no immediate reaction to the news, such trade-positive reports could support the traders’ risk-bearing capacity and can be witnessed through an uptick in AUD/USD and USD/JPY while negatively affecting Gold.
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