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พฤหัสบดี, กรกฎาคม 9, 2020

Gold prices take rounds to $1,810 amid the initial Asian session on Thursday. The yellow metal crossed the $1,800 threshold while refreshing the multi

Gold prices recede from $1,818.17, the highest since September 2011 flashed Wednesday.Record US coronavirus cases join Sino-American tension to weigh on the greenback and favor the commodity bulls.Global efforts to tame the pandemic’s economic side effects fail to produce any meaningful results.China inflation data, US Jobless Claims to offer immediate direction.Gold prices take rounds to $1,810 amid the initial Asian session on Thursday. The yellow metal crossed the $1,800 threshold while refreshing the multi-year to $1,818.17 the previous day. However, a lack of major directives afterward kept the bulls waiting. Read: Forex Today: Mixed trade in absence of market-moving news, DXY on the backfoot Nothing is safer than gold… Amid all the noise surrounding the record surge in the US coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and the Sino-American tension, the precious metal buyers chose to pick the greenback weakness to refresh the multi-year high on Wednesday. Also adding to the bull’s strength were doubts over further equity gains and volatile performances of other investment avenues. New cases from the US crossed a 3.0 million mark with a rise of over 60,000. Further, the latest update from the Texas Health Department suggests new cases rise by 9,979 to 220,564 on Wednesday while marking the biggest daily increase since pandemic started. On the contrary, cases in Tokyo slipped to 75, the first below-100 reading in seven days, while Victoria also marked a receding figure of 134 versus 191 on the previous day. Furthermore, Beijing is keeping its zero virus case level while also inching closer to a third trial of the vaccine. Elsewhere, the US diplomats continue to attack China with harder policies. Recently, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo raised bars for the diplomats from Beijing to get American visas. The Trump administration official is also in talks with others, excluding US President Donald Trump, to undermine the Hong Kong dollar peg. Though, the dragon nation defies everything and opens a new security office in Hong Kong. It should also be noted that investors have recently started doubting further rallies in the global stocks, not only Wall Street. The moves could be seen in the rush towards cryptos and gold as well as the surge in Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) surge in deposits to the fresh landmark. Amid all these plays, US equities marked gains below 1.0% whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 0.66% by the end of Wednesday. Additionally, S&P 500 Futures add 0.13% to 3,167 by the press time. While the virus updates and news concerning China could keep the driver’s seat, the June month Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) from the dragon nation will offer immediate clues ahead of the US weekly jobless. With the anticipated recovery in China’s inflation data, in a contrast to softness in American numbers, the bullion buyers may find hardships in extending the latest rally. Technical analysis Unless slipping back below the year 2012 top near $1,795, the bullion is less likely to part ways from the run-up to the record high above $1,900. Read: Gold Price Analysis: Will it be a smooth journey to the all time high?  

United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance came in at -15%, above expectations (-25%) in June

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9th: Markets were mixed, with stocks making a come back from a beaten-down day on Wednesday as investo

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 9th: Markets were mixed, with stocks making a come back from a beaten-down day on Wednesday as investors keep the faith in the vaccine race and the ability for economies to struggle through the coronavirus malaise.  US cases of COVID-19 surpassed 3 million overnight while a Reuters tally estimates that global coronavirus cases rise to more than 12 million. US Fauci said Phase 3 vaccine trials may begin at end July, and that he is cautiously optimistic for a vaccine by year-end. We hade a flurry of Fed speakers s well, with Fed’s Bostic reiterating that the infections spikes are clouding the reopening outlook, but broad shut down isn’t expected. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard remains optimistic besides COVID-19 cases. Eric Rosengren, president and CEO of Boston said that the US economy expected to remain weaker than many hoped through summer, autumn. Meanwhile, from across the pond, the UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered his plans to help support the economy as it emerges from the lockdown. The measures were widely leaked beforehand and were small in size relative to the downturn, so the market reaction was limited. Germany's Merkel says we should prepare for the possibility of not reaching Brexit deal with the UK. In other themes, US-China tensions continue to boil on the back burners, but US Kudlow was optimistic that the trade deal is not dead. The Hong Kong dollar peg noise fizzled out in, regarded as unrealistic that the US would carry-out a break of the peg to punish China.  FX moversUSD: The US dollar was pressured to test below a critical support line in the DXY. Dollar index selling has also been reinforced by this week’s so-called death cross, with the 50-day moving average having crossed below the falling 200-DMA.Dollar Index Price Analysis: 96.40 looks like a sticky support zone but it could still give wayCAD: The determination of its safe-haven bid was feeding through into commodity-FX with the CAD getting the biggest boost, despite the deficit figures out of Canada, boosted by sturdy oil prices. USD/CAD fell below its 200-day MA at 1.3499. Reuters reported that Canada's budget deficit is now forecast to hit C$343.2 billion ($253.4 billion), the largest shortfall since the Second World War, amid record emergency aid spending in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada's finance department said Wednesday.USD/CAD Price Analysis: The pair is about to test the key support zone of 1.3485GBP: The pound was able to benefit from Breix t hopes of a compromise and by British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak’s recovery plan. Investors were able to simply shrug-off Merkel’s Brexit gloom. The Sterling bulls pierced 1.260 and now eye 200-DMA resistance ahead of 1.2700. EUR/GBP stuck to a Wed range 0.9010-0.8978, with dollar-based moves. The recent cross weakness has aided GBP ascent vs USD and other major currencies. GBP/USD Forecast: Extends gains above 1.2600, ignoring Brexit talksAUD: AUD/USD was able to capitalise on the upbeat risk tones. The currency started out in a chop in the European morning before moving higher to 0.6940 as stocks & commodities were bought. The AUD/USD technicals are bullish with the 10 & 21-DMAs lending support. AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie benefits from better market mood, remains capped by 0.7000EUR: Bulls were in charge from a low in the 1.260s until a high of 1.1351. The pair snow needs to hold above the 61.8% Fibo of the pullback from June’s high at 1.1325 and the 200-week moving average at 1.1335 on a daily and weekly basis. Bulls will then look to June’s 1.14225 high ahead of March’s peak and a Fibo target by 1.1500.EUR/USD Forecast: Picks up pace, eyes 2020 highsGold traded above $1,800 to $1,818 the high. Flight for safety will continue to drive gold prices higher.WTI Crude Oil is trading between the $40/41 level following bearish crude oil inventory figures. EIA data suggested a stronger-than-expected inventory build-up in the US. Oil inventories, increased by 5.7mbbl, against an expected 3.11mbbl.
Cryptocurrencies are edging up, with Bitcoin trading at a high of 9475.
The economic calendar features China CPI for June.           

WTI seesaws around $41.00 during the pre-Tokyo open on Thursday. Considering the oil benchmark’s repeated failure to overcome $41.15 during the week,

WTI stays mildly bid above $41.00 while remaining above 100-HMA.Multiple failures to cross $41.15 confront a bullish chart formation on a short timeframe.June month’s top, February low will be on the buyers’ radar after a successful break.Bears are likely to seek entries below $39.90.WTI seesaws around $41.00 during the pre-Tokyo open on Thursday. Considering the oil benchmark’s repeated failure to overcome $41.15 during the week, coupled with Tuesday’s bounce off $39.96, the rounding bottom bullish chart pattern is clearing coming up on the hourly play. Other than the upside suggesting formation, bullish MACD and the sustained trading beyond 100-HMA also favor the optimists. Though, a clear break of $41.15 becomes necessary for the bulls to attack June month’s top near $41.65. In a case where the black gold remains positive after crossing the previous month’s high, February’s low around $44.00 will be on their radars. It’s worth mentioning that December 2018 low near $42.45 can act as an intermediate halt during the rise. Meanwhile, a confluence of 200-HMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of June 23-25 fall, around $39.90, becomes near-term strong support to watch during the quote’s fresh weakness below 100-HMA immediate rest-point of $40.54. Should the oil prices decline below $39.90, 50% Fibonacci retracement around $39.40 holds the gate for the quote’s additional downside towards the sub-$38.00 region. WTI hourly chart Trend: Bullish  

NZD/USD remains firm around 0.6575 during the early Thursday morning in Asia. In doing so, the kiwi pair defies the second reversal from 0.6581 while

NZD/USD extends recoveries from 0.6570 to re-try breaking June month top for the third time in a week.New Zealand’s ANZ Truckometer data suggest overall traffic is nearly back to year-ago levels.Bulls cheer broad rally in Antipodeans amid greenback weakness and a surge in commodities.China’s June month inflation numbers, Aussie housing figures and US Jobless Claims to join qualitative catalysts for immediate direction.NZD/USD remains firm around 0.6575 during the early Thursday morning in Asia. In doing so, the kiwi pair defies the second reversal from 0.6581 while taking a U-turn from 0.6570 before a few minutes. While the pair’s latest up-move could be attributed to New Zealand’s ANZ Truckometer data from June, Wednesday’s upbeat performance might be compared with the US dollar weakness and gains in equities and commodities. ANZ Truckometer data for June mentions the rise of 14.5% in Heavy Traffic whereas Light Traffic Index surged 28%. In addition to terming it back-to-normal conditions, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group’s (ANZ) report also states, “Light traffic on the weekend remains the weakest type of travel compared to a year ago, despite calls to embark on domestic tourist adventures.” The US dollar index (DXY) dropped to the June 23 low before settling around 96.50 by the end of Wednesday. The greenback gauge might have taken clues from the surge in the coronavirus (COVID-19) numbers that rose past-3.0 million. The latest updates from the Texas Health Department suggest new cases rise by 9,979 to 220,564 on Wednesday while marking the biggest daily increase since pandemic started. It should also be noted that the US health officials are also a little optimistic about the vaccine, likely to be rolled out by the year-end, which in turn exerts additional pressure on the US currency. Other than the pandemic woes, the US-China tussle also drags the USD. News that the American diplomats, not including President Donald Trump, are weighing in a proposal to undermine the Hong Kong dollar peg offered a major blow to the market’s worries concerning the Sino-American tension. Also signaling the intensified relations among the world’s top two economies are the latest hardships introduced by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo over the Chinese diplomats seeking visas. It’s worth mentioning that the surge in the virus cases in the largest customer Australia should have also weighed down the pair. Though, the US dollar weakness supersedes everything. While portraying the market mood, Wall Street marked a mildly positive closing on Wednesday whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields gained to 0.66%. Further, S&P 500 Futures also follow the footsteps of American equities while taking rounds to 3,167 as we write. With China’s June month inflation numbers up for publishing, kiwi traders are less likely to attempt any major moves, while keep attacking 0.6580/85 zone, ahead of the data. As per market consensus, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from 2.4% to 2.5% YoY whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) is also expected to bounce off -3.7% to -3.2% on a yearly basis. Following that, Australia’s Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes are also likely to portray recoveries from the lockdown period whereas likely weakness in the US Jobless Claims might help the kiwi pair to overcome the key upside barrier. Technical analysis Considering the repeated failure to cross 0.6580/85 resistance area, coupled with overbought RSI conditions, NZD/USD bulls might not risk entries at the moment. On the contrary, the pair’s downside break of June 23 top near 0.6530 could renew selling pressure towards 0.6500.  

As per the latest estimates from the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), published during the early Thursday morning in Asia, the federal budget def

As per the latest estimates from the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO), published during the early Thursday morning in Asia, the federal budget deficit in June 2020 was $863 billion, compared with a deficit of $8 billion in the same month last year. The report also says that the increase stems from the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and from the federal government’s response to it, including actions by the Administration and the enactment of four pieces of legislation. It was additionally mentioned that the federal budget deficit was $2.7 trillion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2020, CBO estimates, a $2.0 trillion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. “Revenues were 13 percent lower and outlays were 49 percent higher through June 2020 than during the same nine-month period in the fiscal year 2019,” as per the update. The CBO estimates that receipts in June totaled $242 billion—$92 billion (or 28 percent) less than those in June 2019. FX implications The news becomes a US dollar negative announcement and could exert additional downside pressure on the greenback. That said, the US dollar index (DXY) dropped to the lowest since June 23 while taking rounds to 96.50 by the press time.

Amid the Pacific major’s tussle with China, Australia shows readiness to offer Tiananmen-style visas to Hong Kong residents currently in the nation, p

Amid the Pacific major’s tussle with China, Australia shows readiness to offer Tiananmen-style visas to Hong Kong residents currently in the nation, per the Sydney Morning Herald. The news also mentions that the move comes up as the federal cabinet considers tearing up an extradition treaty with the Chinese territory. Key quotes The move will mark the most significant offer to Chinese migrants from an Australian Prime Minister since Bob Hawke offered 27,000 students in Australia places following the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Scott Morrison will on Wednesday night assess cabinet proposals to provide safe haven to thousands of students and other temporary migrants from Hong Kong already in Australia. Cabinet will also examine ways to bolster skills and investor stream places for those looking to leave Hong Kong after Beijing introduced extraordinary new national security laws that will criminalize dissent in the former British colony. Hong Kong's newly established National Security Office on Wednesday occupied a major hotel that towers above Victoria Park, a popular protest site, and replaced the Metropark Hotel's icon with China's national emblem. Market implications The move could spark fresh risk-off sentiment if China chose to retaliate, which it most likely be. However, no immediate reaction could be witnessed as the AUD/USD pair stays unchanged around 0.6980 while keep attacking 0.7000 for the fourth time in a week during Thursday morning in Asia.

AUD/USD again face a wall of resistance, 0.7000 threshold, while taking rounds to 0.6980 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session. The aussie has been

AUD/USD portrays a fourth attempt to pierce the key 0.7000 threshold.Broad US dollar weakness, upbeat equities and commodities helped Aussie to ignore pandemic fears.Australian policymakers escalate efforts to tame the coronavirus spread, US-China tussle intensifies.China inflation data, Australian housing market figures and US Jobless Claims to decorate the calendar.AUD/USD again face a wall of resistance, 0.7000 threshold, while taking rounds to 0.6980 at the start of Thursday’s Asian session. The aussie has been attacking the psychological magnet since the week’s start but haven’t succeeded so far. That said, the quote flashed a positive daily closing the previous day, the second time in a week, despite worries concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence and the Sino-American tension. Bulls cheer gold’s glitter, stocks’ shine and greenback’s weakness… Although pandemic concerns are turning worrisome in Australia and abroad, the AUD/USD buyers remain on the driver’s seat amid broad US dollar declines. The moves could also be attributed to Gold’s fresh high since 2011, to $1,818, as well as a mildly positive market performance by Wall Street and stocks in China. In addition to recalling the lockdown in Melbourne and surrounding cities, the Aussie diplomats also announced a delay in the easing of lockdown restrictions in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The hearth of Australia has already shunned entries from Victoria and Melbourne. Further, Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg suggested an extension of the government’s income support schemes beyond the initial limit of September. Amid all these, cases in Victoria receded from 191 to 134 on Tuesday. Over the counter, the US marked a record-breaking 60,000 new COVID-19 cases that propelled the total new count beyond three million. Considering the situation, US top health official Dr. Fauci shows a little optimism towards the vaccine which is likely to be available by the year-end. Even so, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard remains optimistic while anticipating softness in the Unemployment rate. Elsewhere, the Trump administration continues to show its angst against China, mainly due to the latest Hong Kong security bill. The latest news suggests that the US diplomats are considering undermining the Hong Kong dollar peg after raising bars for Beijing policymakers for visas over Tibet issue. Though, China doesn’t care about it and opened a new security office in Hong Kong on Tuesday. Against this backdrop, Wall Street benchmarks registered gains below 1.0% by the end of Tuesday’s trading while the US 10-year Treasury yields recovered around 1.8 basis points to 0.66%. Moving on, traders might pause the run-up ahead of June month inflation data from the largest customer China. Forecasts suggest recoveries in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from 2.4% to 2.5% YoY whereas the Producer Price Index (PPI) is also expected to bounce off -3.7% to -3.2% on a yearly basis. Further, Australian Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes, as well as weekly US Jobless Claims, are some other data that should be watched for immediate trade direction. However, all these shouldn’t dim the prospect of the virus updates and headlines concerning China to move the markets. Technical analysis The pair’s sustained trading beyond a confluence of 21-day SMA and an upward sloping trend line from May 15, around 0.6910/05, keeps it on the bulls’ radars. However, buyers remain cautious considering multiple failures to cross 0.7000, a break of which could escalate the north-run to attack June month’s high of 0.7065.  

US stocks rose on Wednesday, amid a general absence of market-moving news, were making a comeback, denying the bears and resulted in the Nasdaq hittin

Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 177.44 points, or 0.69%, to 26,067.62.S&P 500 gained 24.72 points, or 0.79%, to 3,170.04.The Nasdaq Composite added 148.61 points, or 1.44%, to 10,492.50.US stocks rose on Wednesday, amid a general absence of market-moving news, were making a comeback, denying the bears and resulted in the Nasdaq hitting another record closing high. Despite the potential consequences of these spikes in new coronavirus case, patient investors continue to buy into the central bank and fiscal stimulus efforts and global economic recovery.  US Fauci said Phase 3 vaccine trials may begin at end July, and that he is cautiously optimistic for a vaccine by year-end, and that is enough for the market to keep on the bid. Unofficially, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 177.44 points, or 0.69%, to 26,067.62, the S&P 500 gained 24.72 points, or 0.79%, to 3,170.04 and the Nasdaq Composite added 148.61 points, or 1.44%, to 10,492.50. US COVID-19 surpassed 3 millionRecord 60,021 new COVID-19 cases reported in the USUS cases of COVID-19 surpassed 3 million overnight, affecting nearly one of every 100 Americans. California, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Oklahoma and Texas broke their previous daily record highs for new infections. Fed’s Bostic reiterated that the infections spikes are clouding the reopening outlook, but broad shut down isn’t expected.  Meanwhile, US-China tensions continue to bubble. US Kudlow said the US has issues with China but a trade deal is not dead. DJIA levels  

The daily chart shows an acceleration away from the top of the flag pattern. The price has now broken out of the blue resistance line which was the pr

Gold has moved another 0.74% higher to hit a high of USD 1,818.17 per troy ounce on Wednesday.The momentum still looks good on the daily chart.Gold daily chart The daily chart shows an acceleration away from the top of the flag pattern. The price has now broken out of the blue resistance line which was the previous consolidation high back in 2011 after the price dropped from the all-time high. Both the indicators are looking positive with the MACD histogram still green and the bars are still increasing in size. The signal lines are also still elevated and they have not had a bearish cross just yet. The Relative Strength Index indicator is in the overbought zone but in the past, it has stayed there for a while before the price dropped off. Gold monthly chart The monthly chart highlights the levels that the bulls are targeting in the precious metal. It is also a slightly better angle to see the most recent resistance break. Both the indicators on this timeframe also look like showing no signs of slowing down. It is important to remember any blip or wave lower on the daily and intraday charts will not show up to well on this timeframe. The key target for the bulls is now the all-time high of USD 1921.07. Additional levels  
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