ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

จันทร์, มกราคม 30, 2023

The European currency starts the new trading week on the positive foot and lifts EUR/USD back to the vicinity of the key barrier at 1.0900 the figure

EUR/USD picks up pace and retargets the 1.0900 barrier.Advanced German Q4 GDP Growth Rate next on tap.US Dallas Fed index, short-term auctions come later in the NA session.The European currency starts the new trading week on the positive foot and lifts EUR/USD back to the vicinity of the key barrier at 1.0900 the figure on Monday. EUR/USD remains focused on the FOMC, ECB events EUR/USD reclaims ground lost and manages to regain the smile after two consecutive daily pullbacks, shifting its focus at the same time to the 1.0900 neighbourhood amidst the broad-based cautious stance ahead key events later in the week. Indeed, the FOMC meets on Wednesday and a 25 bps rate hike is largely anticipated, while the ECB is predicted to raise its policy rate by half percentage point on Thursday. Investors’ attention, in the meantime, should remain on the potential future moves by these two major central banks, where the sentiment among investors remain at the mercy of hawkish messages from the Fed/ECB policy makers, the likelihood of Fed’s pivot, improved growth prospects in the euro region and the resilience of the US economy. In the domestic calendar, Germany’s advancedQ4 GDP Growth Rate is next on tap seconded by final Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment in the broader Euroland. In the US, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will be the sole release on Monday. What to look for around EUR The sharp yearly rally in EUR/USD appears to have met an initial and decent barrier around the 1.0930 for the time being. In the meantime, price action around the European currency should continue to closely follow dollar dynamics, as well as the potential next steps from the ECB and the Federal Reserve at their upcoming gatherings in the next week. Back to the euro area, recession concerns now appear to have dwindled, which at the same time remain an important driver sustaining the ongoing recovery in the single currency as well as the hawkish narrative from the ECB.Key events in the euro area this week: Germany Flash Q4 GDP Growth Rate, EMU Final Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment (Monday) – Germany Retail Sales/Unemployment Rate/Flash Inflation Rate, EMU Flash Q4 GDP Growth Rate (Tuesday) – Germany, EMU Final Manufacturing PMI, EMU Flash Inflation Rate/Unemployment Rate (Wednesday) – Germany Balance of Trade, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Lagarde (Thursday) - Germany, EMU Final Services PMI (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation of the ECB hiking cycle amidst dwindling bets for a recession in the region and still elevated inflation. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, the pair is gaining 0.17% at 1.0884 and faces the next resistance at 1.0929 (2023 high January 26) followed by 1.0936 (weekly high April 21 2022) and finally 1.1000 (round level). On the other hand, the breakdown of 1.0766 (weekly low January 17) would target 1.0608 (55-day SMA) en route to 1.0481 (monthly low January 6).

USD/JPY is now expected to embark on a consolidative phase in the next weeks, likely within the 128.00-130.80 range. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We high

USD/JPY is now expected to embark on a consolidative phase in the next weeks, likely within the 128.00-130.80 range. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that USD ‘appears to have moved into a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade between 129.10 and 130.55’. Our view for consolidation was not wrong even though USD traded within a narrower range than expected (129.45/130.27). We continue to expect USD to consolidate, likely within a range of 129.35/130.30.” Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our latest update from last Thursday (26 Jan, spot at 129.25). As highlighted, the current movement in USD is likely part of a consolidation phase and we expect USD to trade within a range of 128.00/130.80 for now.”

Open interest in natural gas futures markets increased for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, this time by around 9.7K contracts according to p

Open interest in natural gas futures markets increased for the fourth consecutive session on Friday, this time by around 9.7K contracts according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume, instead, reversed two daily builds in a row and went down by around 233.2K contracts. Natural Gas: Next on the downside comes $2.45 Prices of the natural gas remained well on the defensive on Friday. The move was on the back of rising open interest, which should keep the downtrend well in place for the time being. Against that, the next support of note for the commodity comes at the April 2021 lows near $2.45 per MMBtu.

Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to 13.3% in December from previous 15.4%

Austria Producer Price Index (MoM) up to -0.3% in December from previous -1.1%

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.3%, below expectations (0%) in January

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.5% below forecasts (-0.4%) in January

Spain Retail Sales (YoY) above expectations (1%) in December: Actual (4%)

Spain Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 5.8%, above expectations (4.9%) in January

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) came in at 5.8%, above expectations (4.7%) in January

Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator above expectations (93.3) in January: Actual (97.2)

The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers following an early uptick to the 0.7120 area on Monday and remains on the defensive through the early European

AUD/USD comes under some selling pressure on Monday and hits a fresh daily low in the last hour.A weaker tone around the equity markets is seen exerting pressure on the risk-sensitive Aussie.Bets for smaller Fed rate hikes keep the USD depressed and should help limit losses for the major.The AUD/USD pair attracts some sellers following an early uptick to the 0.7120 area on Monday and remains on the defensive through the early European session on Monday. Spot prices drop to a three-day low, around the 0.7075 region in the last hour, though any meaningful downside still seems elusive. A softer risk tone - as depicted by a weaker trading sentiment around the equity markets - is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the risk-sensitive Aussie. Despite China's move to scale back its strict zero-COVID policy in December, the worst yet COVID-19 outbreak in the country has been fueling uncertainty about a strong economic recovery. This, in turn, tempers investors' appetite for riskier assets and keeps a lid on any optimism in the markets. The downside for the AUD/USD pair, meanwhile, is likely to remain cushioned, at least for now, amid subdued US Dollar price action. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a nine-month low amid firming expectations for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish stance and expect a smaller 25 bps rate hike on Wednesday. The bets were lifted by Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which showed that the Core PCE Price Index fell to the 4.4% YoY rate in December from the 4.7% previous. That said, other US macro data released recently pointed to a resilient economy and backed the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance for longer. Hence, the focus will remain on the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting, which might provide cues on future rate hikes. Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to move to the sidelines. Apart from this, rising odds for an additional rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February could underpin the Australian dollar and help limit any meaningful corrective pullback for the AUD/USD pair. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that spot prices have topped out. Technical levels to watch  

According to UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia, AUD/USD could see its upside momentum mitigated on a b

According to UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia, AUD/USD could see its upside momentum mitigated on a breach of 0.7040. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘upward pressure has eased and AUD is unlikely to advance much further’ and we expected AUD to ‘trade in a range between 0.7085 and 0.7145’. Our view for range-trading was not wrong even though AUD traded within a narrower range than expected (0.7083/0.7130). Momentum indicators are mostly flat and AUD could continue to trade in a range, likely between 0.7075 and 0.7125.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our most recent narrative was from last Thursday (26 Jan, spot at 0.7100) where we highlighted that ‘the improved upward momentum suggests AUD is likely to advance further’. However, AUD has not been able to make much headway on the upside as it traded in a relatively quiet manner the past couple of days. Upward momentum is beginning to ease but only a breach of 0.7040 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that AUD is advancing further.”

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for crude oil futures markets, open interest extended the uptrend on Friday, now by around 20.3K contracts.

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for crude oil futures markets, open interest extended the uptrend on Friday, now by around 20.3K contracts. In the same line, volume rose for the second consecutive day, this time by around 146.4K contracts. WTI: Initial support comes at the $78.00 region Friday’s decline in prices of the WTI came amidst increasing open interest and volume, and this is supportive of the continuation of the corrective retracement in the very near term at least. That said, there is an initial support at the weekly low at $78.18 (January 19).

Here is what you need to know on Monday, January 30: Markets stay relatively quiet early Monday as investors move to the sidelines to gear up for crit

Here is what you need to know on Monday, January 30: Markets stay relatively quiet early Monday as investors move to the sidelines to gear up for critical central bank policy announcements later in the week. Following the modest recovery witnessed in the second half of the previous week, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a tight channel at around 102.00. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady near 3.5% and US stock index futures trade modestly lower on the day. Business and consumer sentiment data from the Eurozone and German Gross Domestic (GDP) figures will be looked upon for fresh impetus later in the session. The US economic docket will feature the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Texas Manufacturing Survey.  The data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Friday that the annual Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index declined to 4.4% in December from 4.7% in November. This reading came in line with the market expectation and failed to trigger a significant market reaction. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index opened modestly higher following a long break and was last seen clinging to small daily gains. On a negative note, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is down more than 2% on a daily basis. China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently noted that the current wave of COVID-19 infections was nearing an end and added that there was no significant rebound in cases during the Lunar New Year holiday.EUR/USD closed the previous week virtually unchanged slightly below 1.0900. Although the pair edged slightly higher in the early trading hours of the Asian session, it is having a difficult time gathering directional momentum. German economy is forecast to post an annualized growth of 1.1% in the fourth quarter.GBP/USD struggled to make a decisive move in either direction ahead of the weekend and ended the week flat below 1.2400. In the early European session, the pair extends its sideways grind. While speaking on Friday, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, said that the best tax cut would be a "cut in inflation."USD/JPY fell sharply toward 129.00 during the Asian trading hours on Monday before recovering to the 129.50 area. Reuters reported earlier that a panel of academics and business executives urged the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to make its 2% inflation target a long-term goal. The proposal reportedly also included the need to have interest rates rise more in line with economic fundamentals and normalize Japan's bond market function. In the meantime, “I believe it's possible to achieve 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage growth, by continuing current easy policy,” BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated earlier in the day.Gold price staged a downward correction and erased its weekly gains in the second half of the week. At the time of press, XAU/USD was posting small daily gains at around $1,930. Following a three-day consolidation phase, Bitcoin gained traction and advanced toward $24,000 on Sunday. As of writing, BTC/USD was moving sideways near $23,700. Ethereum rose nearly 5% on Sunday and ended up posting small weekly gains. ETH/USD seems to have gone under modest bearish pressure early Monday and was last seen losing nearly 1% on the day at $1,630.

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) in line with expectations (1.1%) in 4Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at -1.1%, below expectations (0%) in 4Q

The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), exchanges gains with losses in the 102.00 neighbourhood at the beginning of the week. USD Index remain

The index treads water near the 102.00 region on Monday.Markets’ attention remains on the upcoming FOMC event.The Fed is expected to hike by 25 bps on Wednesday.The greenback, in terms of the USD Index (DXY), exchanges gains with losses in the 102.00 neighbourhood at the beginning of the week. USD Index remains consolidative ahead of FOMC The index looks to add to the recovery emerged in the second half of last week and flirts once again with the 102.00 barrier amidst vacillating risk appetite trends and steady cautiousness ahead of the upcoming FOMC gathering (February 1). On the latter, investors have already priced in a 25 bps rate raise, although expectations around the next steps when it comes to the rate path as well as a potential emergence of a pivot in the monetary stance are expected to keep driving the sentiment in the next couple of sessions. In the US data space, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and short-term bill auctions will be the only events later in the NA session. What to look for around USD The dollar remains side-lined around the 102.00 zone against the backdrop of persistent prudence ahead of the upcoming FOMC gathering. The idea of a probable pivot in the Fed’s policy continues to hover around the greenback and keeps the price action around the DXY somewhat subdued. This view, however, also comes in contrast to the hawkish message from the latest FOMC Minutes and recent comments from rate setters, all pointing to the need to advance to a more restrictive stance and stay there for longer, at the time when rates are seen climbing above the 5.0% mark. On the latter, the tight labour market and the resilience of the economy are also seen supportive of the firm message from the Federal Reserve and the continuation of its hiking cycle.Key events in the US this week: FHFA House Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) – MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday) – Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders (Thursday) – Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Final Services PMI ISM Non-Manufacturing (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Rising conviction of a soft landing of the US economy. Prospects for extra rate hikes by the Federal Reserve vs. speculation of a recession in the next months. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is up 0.02% at 101.93 and the immediate hurdle comes at the weekly high at 102.89 (January 18) followed by 105.63 (monthly high January 6) and then 106.47 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, the breach of 101.50 (2023 low January 26) would open the door to 101.29 (monthly low May 30 2022) and finally 100.00 (psychological level).

The USD/JPY pair attracts some intraday sellers near the 130.30 area on Monday and retreats over 100 pips from the daily peak. Spot prices, however, r

USD/JPY struggles to gain any meaningful traction and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses.A softer risk tone benefits the safe-haven JPY and exerts pressure amid a modest USD weakness.Dovish-sounding comments by the BoJ Governor help limit any meaningful downside for the pair.The USD/JPY pair attracts some intraday sellers near the 130.30 area on Monday and retreats over 100 pips from the daily peak. Spot prices, however, remain well within a one-week-old trading range and now seem to have stabilized above the mid-129.00s during the early European session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to draw support from fresh speculation that high inflation may invite a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan later this year. Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets further underpins the safe-haven JPY. This, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar, exerts some downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair and contributes to the intraday slide. In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a multi-month low amid firming expectations for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Fed. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will soften its hawkish stance and deliver a smaller 25 bps rate hike at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and weighs on the USD. Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair. Apart from this, comments by BoJ Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, saying that the central bank must continue the easy policy and maintain the 2% inflation target, cap the upside for the JPY. This further warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful downside for the major, at least for the time being. Technical levels to watch  

Norway Credit Indicator came in at 5.5%, above expectations (5.3%) in December

Turkey Economic Confidence Index increased to 99.3 in January from previous 97.6

Gold price (XAU/USD) stays defensive around $1,930, printing mild gains heading into Monday’s European session, as traders begin the key week comprisi

Gold price retreats from intraday high while paring the first daily gains in three.Cautious mood ahead of key data/events challenge XAU/USD traders.Softer yields probe US Dollar rebound and Gold bears.Multiple technical indicators highlight $1,917-18 as the key support confluence.Gold price (XAU/USD) stays defensive around $1,930, printing mild gains heading into Monday’s European session, as traders begin the key week comprising the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy and the US employment data for January. Adding strength to the cautious optimism of the XAU/USD traders could be China’s return from one-week-long holidays, as well as hopes of a dovish hike from the Fed and downbeat Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). It’s worth noting that a slower start to the key week comprising a heavy load of economics also seems to underpin the corrective bounce of the Gold prices from a short-term key support confluence. That said, the metal’s short-term moves depend upon how well the Fed manages to push back the dovish bias despite confirming the nearness to the policy pivot. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD shows resilience below 200-hour SMA, bulls have the upper hand Gold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the Gold price grinds higher past $1,918-17 support confluence, comprising the previous daily low, Pivot Point One Month R3 and Pivot Point One-day S1. Ahead of that, the Fibonacci 61.8% on one-week joins 10-DMA to offer immediate support to the XAU/USD around $1,927. That said, the $1,900 round figure appears the likely target for the Gold bears once they manage to conquer the $1,917 support. On the contrary, Pivot Point one-day R1, Fibonacci 38.2% on one-week and previous daily high challenges short-term Gold buyers around $1,937. In a case where XAU/USD remains firmer past $1,937, Pivot Point one week R1 and Fibonacci 161.8% on one day could challenge the Gold buyers around $1,950 level. Here is how it looks on the tool About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia, further strength in GBP/USD could be running out

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia, further strength in GBP/USD could be running out of steam. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘while upward momentum has waned, there is room for GBP to test 1.2450 first before the risk of a more sustained pullback increases’. However, GBP did not test 1.2450 as it traded between 1.2346 and 1.2419 before closing modestly lower at 1.2400 (-0.01%). The price actions appear to be part of a consolidation phase and GBP is likely to trade sideways today, expected to be between 1.2350 and 1.2425.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Thursday (26 Jan, spot at 1.2400), we highlighted that GBP is likely to edge above 1.2450 but as upward momentum is not strong, it remains to be seen if GBP can break 1.2500. GBP has not been able to make much headway on the upside. Upward momentum has waned but as long as 1.2315 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.2300) is not breached, there is still a slim chance for GBP to break above 1.2450.”

CME Group’s flash data for gold futures markets noted traders scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Friday, thi

CME Group’s flash data for gold futures markets noted traders scaled back their open interest positions for the second session in a row on Friday, this time by around 11.4K contracts. Volume followed suit and shrank by around 58.8K contracts. Gold: Another visit to $1950 appears on the cardsGold prices added to Thursday’s losses on Friday, although the daily pullback was on the back of diminishing open interest and volume, exposing a near-term rebound to, initially, the YTD highs around $1950 per ounce troy.

UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia suggest EUR/USD could now trade between 1.0800 and 1.0930 in the nex

UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia suggest EUR/USD could now trade between 1.0800 and 1.0930 in the next few weeks. Key Quotes 24-hout view: “We expected EUR to ‘consolidate between 1.0855 and 1.0925’ last Friday. However, EUR dropped to 1.0835 before rebounding to close at 1.0867 (-0.20%). Despite the decline, downward momentum has barely improved and EUR is unlikely to weaken further. Today, EUR is more likely to trade sideways, expected to be within a range of 1.0840/1.0900.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (26 Jan, spot at 1.0920) when we highlighted that while upward momentum has not improved much, EUR appears poised to head higher toward 1.1000. On Friday, EUR dropped below our ‘strong support’ level of 1.0840. The breach of the ‘strong support’ indicates the mild upward pressure has eased. EUR appears to have entered a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade between 1.0800 and 1.0930 for the time being.”

WTI crude oil remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day after reversing from a one-week high the previous day, down 0.30% intraday near

WTI takes offers to refresh intraday low, extends Friday’s loss.Failure to cross previous support line, downbeat oscillators keep Oil bears hopeful.Key SMAs restrict immediate downside as RSI approaches oversold territory.WTI crude oil remains on the back foot for the second consecutive day after reversing from a one-week high the previous day, down 0.30% intraday near $79.30 heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the black gold pokes the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), around $79.20 by the press time. The energy benchmark’s weakness could be linked to the quote’s early Asian session failure to cross the support-turned-resistance from January 12. Adding strength to the bearish bias could be the downbeat MACD signals, as well as descending RSI (14) line. It’s worth noting, however, that the downside break of the 100-SMA level of $79.20 may have a tough time in pleasing the Oil bears as the $79.00 threshold and the 200-SMA, close to $78.15, could challenge the quote’s further downside. In a case where the WTI drops below $78.15, a slump toward the early-month swing high near $76.90 can’t be ruled out. Alternatively, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line surrounding $80.60 to convince Oil buyers. Even so, multiple tops around $82.65-70 appear the key hurdle for the WTI bulls to cross to convince markets. Overall, WTI crude oil is likely to decline further but the downside room appears limited. WTI: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

The NZD/USD pair is failing in keeping its auction above the psychological resistance of 0.6500 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset is facin

NZD/USD is facing hurdles in shifting its auction above 0.6500 amid a recovery in the USD Index.Softening consumer spending has bolstered the expectations of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed.This week, the release of the NZ Employment data will be of utmost importance.The NZD/USD pair is failing in keeping its auction above the psychological resistance of 0.6500 in the early European session. The Kiwi asset is facing pressure as the US Dollar index (DXY) has shown a perpendicular recovery move after a sheer decline to near 101.40. The recovery move in the USD Index is quite strong and is showing signs of vertical decline in the risk appetite of the market participants. S&P500 futures are continuously adding more losses as investors have underpinned the risk-aversion theme amid soaring volatility ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the alpha generated by the US government bonds has trimmed as investors are seeing a lower terminal rate than previously anticipated. The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to near 3.50%. Softening consumer spending and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index have bolstered the expectations of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed. It is worth noting that Fed chair Jerome Powell has already trimmed the scale of interest rate hikes in its December monetary policy meeting to 50 basis points (bps) after announcing four consecutive 75 bps rate hikes. The Fed is expected to trim the scale of the interest rate hike further by 25 bps. On the New Zealand front, investors are awaiting the release of the Employment data, which is due on Wednesday. The Employment Change (Q4) is expected to drop to 0.7% from the former release of 1.3%. While the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.3%. The New Zealand economy is failing to generate significant employment opportunities amid higher interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).  

USD/CAD picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 1.3325 during the first positive day in three heading into Monday’s European session. In doing s

USD/CAD keeps bounce off 2.5-month low while snapping two-day downtrend.Shift in market sentiment exerts downside pressure on Oil price, favors US Dollar.China-linked headlines entertain traders amid a light calendar.Fed’s dovish hike, softer NFP appears necessary for bears to keep the reins.USD/CAD picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 1.3325 during the first positive day in three heading into Monday’s European session. In doing so, the Loonie pair takes clues from the downbeat Oil prices, Canada’s main export, as well as a rebound in the US Dollar amid the market’s cautious optimism. That said, WTI crude oil takes offers to refresh intraday low near $79.50 as early Asian session optimism, mainly led by China’s return from the one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays, fades amid mixed concerns. Also challenging the Oil price could be the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound from the intraday low while ignoring the US Treasury bond yields. That said, the DXY prints a three-day uptrend near 102.00 but the US 10-year Treasury bond yields retreat from daily tops to 3.50% after the Japanese panel teases hawkish moves of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Elsewhere, Bloomberg poured cold water on the face of expectations that the holiday season propelled China activities. The analysis stated a few signs of improvement in the Chinese economy despite its second month without Covid Zero curbs. The research, however, marks the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday season as marking a lid on some activities. Against this backdrop, the US Treasury bond yields retreat from the intraday top but the stock futures print mild losses. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher and the US Dollar Index (DXY) defends a two-day recovery. Looking forward, risk catalysts are likely to determine short-term market moves ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Friday’s US jobs report for January. It’s worth noting that headlines surrounding China are an extra burden on the USD/CAD watchers to determine near-term moves. Technical analysis A four-day-old bearish triangle restricts USD/CAD moves between 1.3290 and 1.3330.  

The GBP/USD pair has refreshed its day’s high at 1.2405 in the early European session. The Cable has picked up strength as the US Dollar Index (DXY) h

GBP/USD has printed a fresh day's high above 1.2400 amid sheer volatility in the USD Index.The Federal Reserve might pause hiking interest rates after pushing them into a 4.75-5.00% range.A continuation of bigger interest rate hikes is expected from the BoE as the UK inflation is still in the double-digit figure.GBP/USD is on the verge of delivering a volatility contraction despite the souring market mood.The GBP/USD pair has refreshed its day’s high at 1.2405 in the early European session. The Cable has picked up strength as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has turned extremely volatile amid chatters over the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) this week. The USD Index has displayed a wild gyration in a 101.40-101.57 range and is demonstrating a downside bias as investors are punishing the safe-haven asset amid rising bets for a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve ahead. S&P500 futures have extended their losses as consumer spending has fallen 0.2% in December, as reported by the United States Commerce Department. A decline in consumer spending is indicating weaker earnings projections for the US equities, which has turned investors risk-averse. The demand for US government bonds is escalating on expectations of lower terminal rate projections for CY2023 than previously anticipated. Federal Reserve looks for a smaller interest rate hike as inflation softens The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) is declining significantly as higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have trimmed retail demand. The decline in the Federal Reserve’s most preferred inflation tool Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index to 4.4%, in line with expectations. The PCE Price Index data was already expected lower as Producer Price Index (PPI) for December has already been trimmed and consumer spending has also tumbled. Declining inflation projections have bolstered the expectations of a smaller interest rate hike announcement by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Analysts at Rabobank point out that it has become increasingly likely that the Fed will slow down its hiking cycle to 25 bps. For the interest rate guidance “We continue to think that based on the fading momentum of inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to stop at a 4.75-5.00% target range and pause for the remainder of the year.” US ADP Employment and ISM PMI in focus Before the release of the first monetary policy of CY2023 by the Federal Reserve, investors will also keep the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data and ISM Manufacturing PMI on the radar, which will release on Wednesday. Higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve to tame soaring inflation has brought a stagnancy in the operations of various firms, which has forced them to scale down their recruitment process. First and foremost, investors are awaiting the release of the US ADP Employment, which is seen lower at 86K, significantly lower than the former release of 235K. A decline in consumer spending and higher interest payment obligations have forced firms to avoid borrowing. Apart from that, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen lower at 48.2 vs. the former release of 48.4 as firms are not operating at their full capacity due to weaker demand. Bank of England to announce a 50 bps rate hike to contain red-hot inflation The Bank of England is worried about its double-digit inflation despite being the early adopter of hawkish monetary policy after the pandemic period. The rising labor cost index and food prices have offset the impact of softened energy prices in the United Kingdom. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has already increased interest rates to 3.50% and the United Kingdom’s double-digit inflation is likely to call for a continuation of a higher interest rate hike. According to a poll from Reuters, Investors are mostly betting on another half percentage-point increase to 4.0% and that Bank Rate will peak at 4.5% soon. GBP/USD technical outlook GBP/USD is auctioning in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern on an hourly chart that indicates a sheer squeeze in volatility. The upward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned chart is placed from January 12 low at 1.2089 while the horizontal resistance is plotted from January 18 high around 1.2436. Inside the broader Ascending Triangle, the Cable is also forming a Descending Triangle, which indicates massive volatility contraction. The Pound Sterling is near the downward-sloping trendline of the Descending Triangle and is expected to deliver a breakout sooner. The asset has climbed above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2392, which conveys a bullish short-term bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is attempting to shift into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which will trigger the bullish momentum ahead.  

Bloomberg came out with analysis suggesting few signs of improvement in Chinese economic despite its second month without Covid Zero curbs. The resear

Bloomberg came out with analysis suggesting few signs of improvement in Chinese economic despite its second month without Covid Zero curbs. The research, however, marks the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday season as marking a lid on some activities. Bloomberg’s aggregate index of eight early indicators showed a slight uptick in activity in January, versus a contraction in December, reported Bloomberg. Key findings Early signs showed a rise in activity as more than 300 million trips were made during the holiday, nearly 90% of pre-pandemic levels, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism.  Box office figures were higher, too, topping last year’s holiday. Restaurant revenue spiked nearly 25% during the festival period from a year ago. Other indicators weren’t as positive, either as business activity slowed during the Lunar New Year season or as the global economy continued to struggle. Confidence among small businesses was better in January than in December, with real estate, transport, accommodation and catering activity seeing a sharp rebound, according to Standard Chartered Plc.   Developing story....

USD/INR portrays a three-day uptrend around 81.70 as traders brace for the key data/events from India and the US during early Monday. Also likely to h

USD/INR picks up bids to extend the previous week’s rebound from 2.5-month low.RBI likely to announce 0.25% rate hike in February before ending tightening cycle.Fears of Adani stocks rout, firmer Oil price also weigh on Indian Rupee.Indian budget likely to emphasize deficit reduction, hopes of Fed’s dovish hike caps USD/INR upside.USD/INR portrays a three-day uptrend around 81.70 as traders brace for the key data/events from India and the US during early Monday. Also likely to have underpinned the Indian Rupee (INR) pair’s run-up could be the pessimism surrounding the nation’s equities due to a company-specific move and fears of a downbeat budget for the Fiscal Year 2023-24 (FY). Indian equities slumped to a three-month low after Adani group shares drowned the markets after the Hindenburg Research report triggered a $48 billion rout in shares of the top-tier Indian enterprise. Not only the equity rout but the likely exodus of foreign funds due to the Adani-led slump also weighs on the Indian Rupee (INR). Further, recently firmer prices of Crude Oil, mildly offered near $79.50 by the press time, also favors the USD/INR buyers. On the contrary, mixed US data and cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting decision probe the USD/INR bulls. During the last week, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Ahead of that, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus the 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. On a different page, China’s return from the one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays bring some good news as the nation’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) signaled the end of the Covid wave. On the same line could be the could jump in the Chinese festive demand, of around 12.2% versus the year ago, as well as readiness to bolster economic growth via lending tools, spending and higher imports. Amid these plays, the US Treasury bond yields grind higher but the stock futures print mild losses. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher but the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to extend a two-day recovery while India’s NSE 50 drops near 0.20% intraday at the latest. Moving on, Wednesday becomes the key day for the USD/INR pair traders as Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will unveil the details of India’s Union Budget for the Fiscal Year 2023-24. Ahead of the release, Reuters said, “The Indian government will present a budget on February 1 that will likely put deficit reduction ahead of vote-winning spending, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks towards seeking a rare third term of office in 2024.” Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to raise its main interest rate by a modest 25 basis points to 6.50% at its meeting one week after New Delhi's budget, before leaving it at that level for the rest of the year, a Reuters poll of economists found. The same could keep the USD/INR buyers hopeful as policy pivot appears closer. Moving on, USD/INR pair may witness further upside should the Indian budget updates disappoint the markets, which is more likely. However, the expected dovish hike from the Fed and likely weakness in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) may restrict the pair’s upside moves. Technical analysis The USD/INR pair’s successful trading beyond the 10-DMA, around 81.45 by the press time, keeps the buyers hopeful. However, the 100-DMA, close to 81.85 at the latest, holds the key to the bull’s dominance.  

The AUD/USD pair has refreshed its day’s low at 0.7083 as investors have turned risk-averse amid the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fe

AUD/USD has refreshed its day’s low at 0.7083 as volatility soars amid the risk-off mood.The 50-EMA that was providing support to the Australian Dollar is now providing a cushion to the US Dollar.The formation of a Wyckoff Inventory Distribution indicates a bearish reversal.The AUD/USD pair has refreshed its day’s low at 0.7083 as investors have turned risk-averse amid the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this week. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has displayed a wild gyration in a 101.40-101.57 range as the volatility is accelerating dramatically. S&P500 futures have surrendered their entire gains recorded on Friday and is expected to remain on tenterhooks amid a risk-off mood. The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped below 3.51%. AUD/USD is demonstrating Wyckoff’s inventory distribution on an hourly scale, which indicates an inventory shift from the institutional investors to the retail participants. The Aussie asset has also witnessed an Upthrust formation that indicates the presence of responsive sellers. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.7100, which was providing support to the Australian Dollar is now providing cushion to the US Dollar. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that investors are awaiting a fresh trigger for a power-pack action. Should the asset break below January 25 low at 0.7062, US Dollar bulls will drag the asset toward the psychological support at 0.7000 followed by January 17 low at 0.6948. On the contrary, a break above August 11 high at 0.7137 will send the major toward the round-level resistance at 0.7200. A breach of the latter will expose the asset to June 3 high at 0.7283. On the contrary, a downside move below December 29 low at 0.6710 will drag the major further toward December 22 low at 0.6650 followed by November 21 low at 0.6585. AUD/USD hourly chart  

USD/JPY dropped nearly 70 pips on Reuters’ news saying, “a panel of academics and business executives on Monday urged the Bank of Japan to make its 2%

USD/JPY dropped nearly 70 pips on Reuters’ news saying, “a panel of academics and business executives on Monday urged the Bank of Japan to make its 2% inflation target a long-term goal, instead of one that must be met as soon as possible, in light of the rising cost of prolonged monetary easing.” The news also mentioned that the proposal also included the need to have interest rates rise more in line with economic fundamentals, and normalize Japan's bond market function. It’s worth noting that the panel includes members such as Yuri Okina, who is considered among the candidates to become the next BOJ deputy governor, per Reuters. USD/JPY drops back below 130.00 Following the news, the USD/JPY pair dropped 70 pips to 129.20 before licking its wounds near 129.55 by the press time. Also read: USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls attack 130.40 resistance confluence

Early Monday morning in Europe, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Australia’s AAA/A-1+rating while keeping the outlook stable. Developing story…

Early Monday morning in Europe, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Australia’s AAA/A-1+rating while keeping the outlook stable. Developing story…

Gold price (XAU/USD) aptly portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of top-tier data/events during early Monday. The metal rose in the last six weeks

Gold price bounces off intraday low but stays directionless after closely missing the bear’s entry in the week.China’s return boosts Asia-Pacific shares, S&P 500 Futures bear the burden of firmer yields.XAU/USD bulls appear running out of steam even as Fed’s dovish hike, downbeat expectations from US NFP probe bears.Gold price (XAU/USD) aptly portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of top-tier data/events during early Monday. The metal rose in the last six weeks before losing the upside momentum at the latest. The reason for the quote’s recent sluggish moves could be linked to the market’s indecision as major central bank events and the US jobs report occupy the weekly economic calendar. It’s worth noting that China’s return from the one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays bring some good news as the nation’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) signaled the end of the Covid wave. On the same line could be the could jump in the Chinese festive demand, of around 12.2% versus the year ago, as well as readiness to bolster economic growth via lending tools, spending and higher imports. Elsewhere, mixed concerns surrounding the US inflation and growth challenge the Federal Reserve (Fed) in defending its hawkish policy, which in turn keeps the Gold buyers hopeful. Furthermore, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) comparatively more hawkish stand probes the US Dollar’s latest rebound and hence exerts downside pressure on the XAU/USD. Amid these plays, the US Treasury bond yields grind higher but the stock futures print mild losses. Furthermore, the Asia-Pacific shares grind higher but the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to extend a two-day recovery. Looking forward, January’s official PMIs from China, up for publishing on Tuesday, could offer immediate directions to Gold price ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting and Friday’s US jobs report. Overall, the Fed’s inability to convince hawks could weigh on the pair. Gold price technical analysis Gold price fades the previous day’s bounce off a one-month-old ascending support line, taking rounds to the 50-Simple Moving Average (SMA) level surrounding $1,928 by the press time. Although the receding bearish bias of the MACD and multiple bounces off the aforementioned support line defends the XAU/USD buyers. Steady RSI (14) and recently sluggish momentum teases Gold sellers of late. That said, a clear downside break of the stated support line, close to $1,920 by the press time, appears necessary for the Gold sellers to take entry. Following that, the $1,900 threshold and the January 18 swing low near $1,896 could lure the XAU/USD bears. Alternatively, Gold buyers need to cross the one-week-old horizontal hurdle of around $1,945 to retake control. Gold price: Four-hour chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

Markets in the Asian domain are showing an expression of strength despite cautious market sentiment. Chinese stocks are showing resilience after the L

Chinese stocks are accelerating after the Lunar New Year holidays as optimism about economic recovery deepens.BOJ Kuroda is confident about keeping the 2% inflation target due to rising wages.The oil price has resumed its downside journey as Russia has increased the oil supply.Markets in the Asian domain are showing an expression of strength despite cautious market sentiment. Chinese stocks are showing resilience after the Lunar New Year holidays while Japanese equities are displaying marginal gains. S&P500 futures have surrendered their entire gains recorded on Friday as investors have turned risk-averse amid Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy-inspired volatility, which is scheduled this week. At the press time, Japan’s Nikkei225 added 0.20%, China A50 soared 1.60%, Hang Seng tumbled 1.06%, and KOSPI plunged 1.24%. The US Dollar Index is struggling to extend gains after recovery from 101.50 despite the risk-off market mood. The upside in the USD Index is capped around 101.80 from the last week as Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to hike interest rates with a smaller rate. Inflationary pressures in the United States have trimmed significantly, which has provided some room for the Fed to announce a modest rate hike. Chinese stocks have soared dramatically amid optimism boosted by commentary from China's cabinet that said on Saturday “It would promote a consumption recovery as the major driver of the economy and boost imports”, state broadcaster CCTV reported per Reuters. The news highlights the cooling of global demand and recession concerns behind the readiness of China policymakers to act. Meanwhile, Japanese indices are collecting strength as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is expecting that the economy can achieve a 2% inflation target through rising wages. The continuation of easy monetary policy creates a condition that allows firms to hike wages. This might result in a bumper demand from individuals, which would keep inflation nearby the desired targets. On the oil front oil price has resumed its downside journey after a pullback move. Downside bias in the oil price emerged after Reuters reported that Russia’s oil loadings from its Baltic ports were set to rise by 50% in January from December levels in order to address the strong demand coming from Asia. Russian oil supply is accelerating despite the sanctions by the Western cartel.     

EUR/USD treads water around 1.0870-60 as markets remain on a dicey floor ahead of the key central bank meetings and data. Adding strength to the marke

EUR/USD pauses two-day downtrend but struggles to extend intraday gains.Markets sentiment remains divided as firmer yields probe stock futures while Asian equities cheer China’s return.Hawkish concerns from ECB contrast with hopes of Fed’s dovish hike to tease buyers.Germany’s preliminary Q4 GDP could direct intraday traders amid a light calendar in the US.EUR/USD treads water around 1.0870-60 as markets remain on a dicey floor ahead of the key central bank meetings and data. Adding strength to the market’s indecision could be the return of China and fears of a softer growth number from Germany. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids to defend the 102.00 round figure as the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firmer around 3.51% after snapping a two-week downtrend. It’s worth noting, however, that the mixed US data and receding hawkish bias from the Fed, contrasts with the hopes of stronger rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB), keeps the EUR/USD buyers hopeful. Additionally underpinning the EUR/USD upside are the mixed US data and the cautious optimism in the market as China returns to trading after one full week of the Lunar New Year holidays. Talking about the data, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Ahead of that, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus the 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. While portraying the mood, the US Treasury bond yields grind higher but the stock futures print mild losses and challenge the EUR/USD traders. As a result, the first readings of Germany’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to the east to 0.0% versus 0.4% prior, will be important to watch for immediate directions as downbeat German data allows the EUR/USD bears to extend two-day downtrend. However, major attention will be given to how well the Fed can push back the dovish concerns, as well as the ECB’s ability to please the hawks. Technical analysis Despite the latest pause in a two-day downtrend, the EUR/USD buyers need to cross the descending resistance line from Thursday, close to 1.0880 at the latest, to retake control. Also read: EUR/USD Price Analysis: Fades bounce off fortnight-old support line below 1.0900  

“I believe it's possible to achieve 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage growth, by continuing current easy policy,” said Japanese Prime Minister

“I believe it's possible to achieve 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage growth, by continuing current easy policy,” said Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kurda early on Monday. More to come

USD/JPY prints mild gains as buyers muster the courage to overcome the key 130.40 resistance confluence during early Monday morning, close to 130.10 b

USD/JPY grinds higher around intraday top after two-week rebound from multi-month low.Convergence of 21-DMA, downward-sloping trend line from late November guards immediate upside.Bullish MACD signals, firmer RSI (14) adds strength to the bullish bias.Bears need validation from fortnight-old ascending trend line to retake control.USD/JPY prints mild gains as buyers muster the courage to overcome the key 130.40 resistance confluence during early Monday morning, close to 130.10 by the press time. In doing so, the Yen pair defends the two-week rebound from the lowest levels since May 2022 while staying above a fortnight-old ascending trend line. Additionally favoring the USD/JPY buyers are the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14), not overbought. However, a convergence of the 21-DMA and a two-month-long downward-sloping resistance line, around 130.40, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Following that, a run-up towards refreshing the monthly high near 134.80 can’t be ruled out. During the anticipated rise past 130.40, the 131.00 round figure and January 18 high near 131.60 might probe the USD/JPY bulls. On the contrary, a downside break of the aforementioned nearby support line, close to 129.40, could recall the USD/JPY bears targeting the monthly low of 127.20. In a case where the USD/JPY sellers keep the reins past 127.20, the May 2022 low near 126.35 will be in focus. Overall, USD/JPY bears appear to run out of steam but the buyers need validation from 130.40. USD/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

As per the latest weekly update from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reported by Reuters, “China's current wave of COVID-19 i

As per the latest weekly update from China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reported by Reuters, “China's current wave of COVID-19 infections is nearing an end, and there was no significant rebound in cases during the Lunar New Year holiday.” The news also quotes an anonymous CDC official as saying, “The number of severe COVID cases and deaths was also trending downward.” Also read: China Cabinet aims to boost consumption and imports Market reaction The news should have underpinned the AUD/USD upside due to the likely positive impact on the market sentiment amid China-linked optimism. However, the Aussie pair prints mild losses around 0.7100 by the press time. Also read: USD/CNH prints mild losses around 6.7400 on China-linked concerns ahead of PMIs, Fed and US NFP

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds lower ground near $23.60 as the metal traders brace for a busy week during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal re

Silver price fades the previous week’s bounce off 50-DMA, stays depressed around intraday low.Bearish Doji, downbeat MACD signals keep silver sellers hopeful.XAG/USD moves remain sidelined inside five-week-old horizontal region.Silver price (XAG/USD) holds lower ground near $23.60 as the metal traders brace for a busy week during early Monday. In doing so, the bright metal remains inside a five-week-old horizontal trading region between $24.40 and $23.10. It’s worth noting, however, that Thursday’s bearish Doji candlestick joins bearish MACD signals to weigh on the Silver prices. Even so, the 50-DMA and the stated horizontal region’s support, respectively near $23.25 and $23.10, restrict short-term XAG/USD downside. In a case where the Silver price remains weaker past $23.10, and also breaks the $23.00 round figure, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the commodity’s November 2022 to early January 2023 upside, close to $22.55 and $22.10 in that order, will be important challenges for the XAG/USD bears to tackle. Alternatively, the $24.00 round figure could test the immediate upside of the XAG/USD ahead of directing the Silver buyers towards the stated trading range’s upper boundary, close to $24.40. Following that, the monthly high surrounding $24.55 could act as an extra filter towards the north ahead of fueling the XAG/USD towards the April 2022 top near $26.25. Overall, the Silver price remains bearish unless crossing $24.40. However, the downside room appears limited. Silver price: Daily chart Trend: Further weakness expected  

NZD/USD ended in New York little changed, but there are prospects of a move lower this week with a number of key events that stack up with the price f

NZD/USD bears are moving in on the Bulls' party. Key data this week could be used as the catalyst. NZD/USD ended in New York little changed, but there are prospects of a move lower this week with a number of key events that stack up with the price faltering on the bid as the following technical analysis will illustrate., Meanwhile, the NZ labour market data (and the Fed decision will be key and could be the icing on the came for the bears that are gate-crashing the bull's party. ''The consensus seems to be that labour market data won’t do much to alter RBNZ thinking now that CPI data is in hand, but we wouldn’t dismiss it so quickly given wage/price spiral risks,'' analysts at ANZ Bank explained. NZD/USD H1 chart The Kiwi is making tracks to the upside but the accent has started to decelerate.  The waterfall sell-off could look something like the above if the bears really went to town this week.  The W-formation means that the price is more probable to meet resistance and fall back into test support. A break of the micro trendline could lead to a move lower for the day ahead with 0.6470s critical. 

The EUR/GBP pair has demonstrated a responsive buying action after dropping to near 0.8760 in the Tokyo session. The cross has extended its gains abov

EUR/GBP has extended its recovery above 0.8770 ahead of German GDP data.UK FM Jeremy Hunt has promised to halve the double-digit inflation figure ahead.The ECB is expected to continue hiking interest rates by 50 bps ahead to tame stubborn inflation. The EUR/GBP pair has demonstrated a responsive buying action after dropping to near 0.8760 in the Tokyo session. The cross has extended its gains above 0.8770 ahead of the preliminary German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) release on Monday. Higher interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) have already impacted the scale of economic activities in Eurozone. Apart from that supply chain disruptions have been a major issue for firms. As per the consensus, the German GDP is seen stagnant against a marginal expansion of 0.4% on a quarterly basis. The labor market in Eurozone has remained tight and the economy has also shown resilience after easing energy prices. Therefore, the street is expecting a shallow recession, not a deeper one as expected earlier, in the shared continent. The mega event that will trigger volatility for the Euro will be the interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). Last week, ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf cited "We need to continue to increase rates at our meeting next week – by taking a similar step to our December decisions," He further added "Our future policy decisions need to continue to be data-dependent given the prevailing uncertainty," as reported by Reuters. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling is reacting negatively to the commentary from United Kingdom Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt. The UK FM stated on Friday that the “best tax cut right now is a cut in inflation.” On paper, the UK economy is still operating with double-digit figure inflation and showing no signs of deceleration amid rising food prices and the labor cost index. On the Brexit front, UK and European Union negotiators are nearing a provisional agreement on post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland, putting them in touching distance of a final settlement after years of often fraught talks, as reported by Bloomberg. The two sides are dealing with intensive negotiations for weeks and delegates are close to finding solutions at a technical level covering most pending issues including customs, state aid, and sanitary checks on agri-food goods, Bloomberg added.  

USD/CNH remains pressured around the intraday low near 6.7400 while fading fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off a two-week low during Monday

USD/CNH struggles around intraday low as China returns after one-week-long LNY holiday.Upbeat festive spending, chatters over more efforts to boost consumption, imports keep CNH buyers hopeful.Pre-Fed anxiety, PBOC hints challenge USD/CNH bears amid full markets.USD/CNH remains pressured around the intraday low near 6.7400 while fading fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off a two-week low during Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) pair justifies the hawkish concerns surrounding the dragon nation ahead of the key data/events. Among them, talks of increased spending in China during the festive season and readiness for further measures to boost growth and imports seem to have gained major attention. China's cabinet said on Saturday it would promote a consumption recovery as the major driver of the economy and boost imports, state broadcaster CCTV reported per Reuters. The news highlights the cooling of global demand and recession concerns behind the readiness of China policymakers to act. Further, the Chinese tax authority mentioned that the week-long Lunar New Year holiday that ended on Friday propelled consumption by 12.2% from the same period last year. Further, the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) readiness to introduce more tools to boost lending and growth probe the pair sellers. Additionally, the dragon nation’s return from a one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) also boosts the market’s optimism in China. It should be noted that Shanghai Composite Index is up 1.3% while CSI 300 prints the bull markets’ signal after posting the 20% recovery from the lows printed in October 2022. On the other hand, the hopes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish hike after the last week’s mixed data seem to weigh on the USD/CNH prices. That said, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Ahead of that, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus the 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain lackluster near 3.51% after snapping a two-week downtrend whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses. Moving on, USD/CNH traders will pay close attention to January’s official PMIs, up for publishing on Tuesday, for immediate directions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting and Friday’s US jobs report. Overall, the Fed’s inability to convince hawks could weigh on the pair. Technical analysis Failure to cross a two-month-old descending resistance line, around 6.7580 by the press time, directs USD/CNH towards a two-week-old support line near 6.7250.  

Gold price (XAU/USD) has sensed barricades while attempting to cross the critical resistance of $1,930.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal has

Gold price has sensed selling interest around $1,930.00 as a risk-off profile has emerged.Rising yields on US Treasuries have provided a cushion to the US Dollar Index.US firms are hoping for a bleak economic outlook amid rising interest rates by the Fed.Gold price (XAU/USD) has sensed barricades while attempting to cross the critical resistance of $1,930.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal has witnessed selling interest as investors are turning risk averse in the interest rate policy week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its first interest rate decision of CY2023 on Wednesday. S&P500 futures are showing some losses in the Asian session, portraying an expression of escalating caution in the market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has recovered sharply after a correction to near 101.50. A recovery in the USD index is supported by rising returns on US Treasury bonds. The 10-year US Treasury yields have climbed to near 3.53%. In addition to the Fed’s monetary policy, investors will keep an eye on the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data, which is expected to drop vigorously to 86K vs. the former release of 235K. Rising interest rates by Fed chair Jerome Powell to tame the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has trimmed the overall demand, which has squeezed labor demand by firms amid a bleak economic outlook. Gold technical analysis Gold price is juggling in a small range bounded consolidation on an hourly scale that indicates volatility contraction. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,930.00 has been acting as a major barricade for the Gold bulls. The demand zone placed in a $1,917-1,920 range will be a key support for the asset ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that investors are awaiting a fresh trigger for a power-pack action. Gold hourly chart  

USD/CAD bounces off intraday low to 1.3310 as bears take a breather following the six-week south-run during Monday’s Asian session. Even so, the Looni

USD/CAD picks up bids to pare intraday losses after six-week downtrend.Bearish triangle, downbeat RSI (14) conditions challenge buyers.Late 2022 low could lure bears past 1.3290 immediate support.200-HMA, weekly resistance line adds to the upside filters.USD/CAD bounces off intraday low to 1.3310 as bears take a breather following the six-week south-run during Monday’s Asian session. Even so, the Loonie pair remains inside a bearish triangle formation established since Wednesday. Adding strength to the bearish bias is the downbeat RSI (14) line. As a result, the quote’s corrective bounce is less likely to overcome the immediate hurdle, namely the resistance line of the stated triangle near 1.3325. Even if the USD/CAD buyers manage to cross the 1.3325 hurdle, the previous support line from January 13 and the 200-Hour Moving Average (HMA), respectively near 1.3360 and 1.3395, could challenge the upside momentum. It’s worth observing that a one-week-old downward-sloping resistance line near 1.3430 acts as the last defense of the USD/CAD bears, a break of which could propel the quote towards the January 19 swing high near 1.3520. Alternatively, a downside break of the stated triangle, close to 1.3290 by the press time, could direct USD/CAD sellers towards the November 2022 low surrounding 1.3225 ahead of challenging the 1.3200 round figure. Overall, the USD/CAD bears are likely to keep the reins unless the price stays successfully beyond 1.3520. USD/CAD: Hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7626 vs. the last close of 6.7955. About the fix China maintains stri

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) at 6.7626 vs. the last close of 6.7955. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

GBP/USD dropped on Friday due to the fears that the United Kingdom economy's slowdown may prompt the BoE that meets this week to slow down on its rate

GBP/USD bears are lined up ahead of the Fed and the BoE.The data has not been kind to the pound and there could be more to come this week. GBP/USD dropped on Friday due to the fears that the United Kingdom economy's slowdown may prompt the BoE that meets this week to slow down on its rate hike cycle sooner than originally thought. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2390 and has travelled between a low of 1.2372 and 1.2404 so far. The US Dollar is thinly spread in the open and not making a dominant impact on forex with the likes of the Aussie rallying yet the British Pound on the back foot. The week ahead will be busy with bot the BoE and Federal Reserve. For the BoE, it is expected to hike rates by 50 bp. ''However, nearly a third of the analysts polled by Bloomberg see a smaller 25 bp move'' ''Indeed, WIRP suggests only 55% odds of a 50 bp hike, down from 85% at the start of last week, while odds of a 25 bp hike March 23 are no longer fully priced in,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said. ''After that, odds of a final 25 bp hike in June or August top out near 60% would see the bank rate peak near 4.5%. Recall that for the 50 bp hike at the last meeting on December 15, the 6-3 vote was surprising in that Dhingra and Tenreyro voted to keep rates steady and Mann voted for a larger 75 bp move. Updated macro forecasts will be released this week.'' As for the data, again, a thorn in the side for the Pound, the analysts said that  December consumer credit will be reported Tuesday as well as the final January manufacturing PMI  followed by final services and composite PMIs as the last data for the week. ''The data are likely to continue worsening as the full weight of monetary and fiscal tightening has yet to be felt.''      

GBP/JPY prints mild gains around 161.00 as it portrays the market’s cautious mood at the start of the key week comprising multiple monetary policy mee

GBP/JPY defends two-week uptrend despite retreating from intraday high.US Treasury bond yields recover amid market’s anxiety ahead of this week’s bumper data/events.UK Chancellor Hunt resists tax cuts until public finances improve.BoJ versus BoE concerns could play a major role in directing short-term moves.GBP/JPY prints mild gains around 161.00 as it portrays the market’s cautious mood at the start of the key week comprising multiple monetary policy meetings and crucial data. Even so, the cross-currency pair manages to defend the two-week recovery amid upbeat US Treasury bond yields, as well as hawkish hopes from the Bank of England (BoE). US 10-year Treasury yields remain lackluster near 3.51%, mildly bid by the press time, after snapping a two-week downtrend by the end of Friday. That said, concerns surrounding the BoE’s 0.50% rate hike to tame upbeat inflation appear to keep the GBP/JPY buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the talks surrounding UK’s hesitance from tax cuts also seem to underpin the pair’s upside momentum. Reuters quotes British finance minister Jeremy Hunt as saying on Friday that he aims to prioritize tax cuts for businesses once there is room in the public finances to do so. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) repeated attempts to defend the Yield Curve Control (YCC), amid recently firmer inflation data from Tokyo, keep GBP/JPY sellers hopeful. On the same line could be the comparatively firmer fundamentals surrounding Japan than that of the UK. Looking forward, GBP/JPY prices may witness a short-term rebound amid cautious optimism in the market, as well as receding fears of the UK’s workers’ strikes. However, major attention will be given to the BoE’s rate hike and attempts to tame inflation without harming productivity. Technical analysis Although the 21-DMA puts a floor under the GBP/JPY prices near 159.50, a one-month-old descending resistance line surrounding 161.65 holds the key for buyer’s entry.  

The AUD/USD pair has accelerated to near 0.7115 after rebounding from below 0.7095 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset is scaling firmly higher des

AUD/USD has scaled to near 0.7115 after a recovery move despite solidifying cautionary market mood.The Fed might hike interest rates by 25 bps and keep them steady at 4.75-5.00% for the remaining year.Australian monthly Retail Sales are expected to display de-growth by 0.3%.The AUD/USD pair has accelerated to near 0.7115 after rebounding from below 0.7095 in the Asian session. The Aussie asset is scaling firmly higher despite the expression of caution in the market sentiment. S&P500 futures are showing selling pressure in the Asian session as investors are dubious about whether to ditch United States equities due to softening demand or add them amid expectations of a further slowdown in the inflation projections. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering around 101.50 after a downside move and is expected to remain on the tenterhooks as investors will keep an eye on chatters ahead of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields have climbed to near 3.52% as Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to hike interest rates further. Analysts at Rabobank point out that it has become increasingly likely that the Fed will slow down its hiking cycle to 25 bps. For the interest rate guidance “We continue to think that based on the fading momentum of inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to stop at a 4.75-5.00% target range and pause for the remainder of the year.” Easing supply chain disruptions and a decline in the overall demand have softened inflation projections and it seems that the worst is behind us, however, the labor cost index and tight labor market are still a major concern for Fed policymakers. On the Aussie front, investors are awaiting the release of the monthly Australian Retail Sales data for fresh cues. Tuesday’s monthly retail sales indicate a de-growth of 0.3% vs. the former expansion of 1.4%. Declining retail demand might have some impact on the red-hot Australian inflation, which has reached 7.8%, as reported last week, in the fourth quarter of CY2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to continue hiking interest rates further to tame soaring inflation.  

EUR/USD struggles to extend the bounce off a two-week-long support line as it makes rounds to 1.0870 during early Monday. In doing so, the major curre

EUR/USD seesaws around intraday high after snapping two-day downtrend.Descending resistance line from Thursday, 50-HMA restrict immediate upside.MACD, RSI conditions back the latest recovery moves from two-week-long ascending trend line.EUR/USD struggles to extend the bounce off a two-week-long support line as it makes rounds to 1.0870 during early Monday. In doing so, the major currency pair also fades the upside momentum after the first positive day in three. That said, the quote’s recovery from an upward-sloping trend line from January 12 takes clues from the RSI (14) rebound from the oversold territory, near the 50.00 mark in the press time. Adding strength to the upside momentum are the bullish MACD signals. However, a descending resistance line from Thursday, close to 1.0880 at the latest, guards the quote’s nearby upside. Following that, the 50-Hour Moving Average (HMA) level surrounding 1.0885 and 1.0900 could probe the EUR/USD buyers before directing them to the monthly high of 1.0930 marked in the last week. It should be noted that the EUR/USD pair’s successful run-up beyond 1.0930 enables it to challenge the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, a downside break of the aforementioned fortnight-old support line, close to 1.0840 by the press time, becomes necessary for the EUR/USD bears to retake control. In a case where the EUR/USD prices remain weak past 1.0840, lows marked during January 18 and 12, respectively near 1.0765 and 1.0730, will be crucial to watch. EUR/USD: Hourly chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The EUR/JPY pair sensed a significant buying interest after dropping to near the four-day low around 140.80 in the early Asian session. The cross has

The Euro bulls are showing strength ahead of the German GDP data release.A recovery move above the 20-EMA indicates the short-term trend is bullish.The RSI (14) is still in the 40.00-60.00 range, showing the absence of a potential trigger.The EUR/JPY pair sensed a significant buying interest after dropping to near the four-day low around 140.80 in the early Asian session. The cross has picked demand ahead of the release of the preliminary German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data, which will release on Monday. The economic data is seen at 0% lower than the prior figure of 0.4% on a quarterly basis. This week, the event that will keep the asset volatile is the interest rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB), which will release on Thursday. Considering Eurozone’s roaring inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will push the interest rates higher by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.50%. EUR/JPY is displaying rangebound action broadly in a Descending Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale. The downward-sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from January 25 high at 142.29 while the horizontal support is placed from January 25 low around 140.76. On a broader basis, the south side trendline from January 11 high at 142.61 will act as a major barricade for the Euro bulls. The recovery move from the horizontal support of the chart pattern has pushed the cross above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 141.22, which indicates that the short-term trend is turning bullish. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is still oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates a consolidation ahead. For an upside move, the cross needs to surpass January 25 high at 142.29, which will drive the asset toward January 11 high at 142.61 followed by October 24 low at 143.72. On the flip side, a break below January 25 low around 140.76 will be a breakdown of the chart pattern, which will drag the asset towards January 5 low at 140.14. A slippage below the same will expose the cross for more downside toward January 17 high at 139.62. EUR/JPY hourly chart  

The US Dollar has made some modest gains in the build-up to the Federal Reserve this week and is starting out on the front foot on Monday and this was

DXY bulls eye102.50 that guard 103.00 and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the weekly bearish impulse.The Federal Reserve and US Nonfarm Payrolls will be this week's highlight.The US Dollar has made some modest gains in the build-up to the Federal Reserve this week and is starting out on the front foot on Monday and this was despite the data that showed falling US Consumer Spending and cooling inflation. The Commerce Department reported the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 0.1% last month after a similar rise in November. The market remains of the mind that the Federal Reserve will pivot in H2 and only hike one more time following this week's 0.25% rate hike before stopping. The current target range is 4.25% to 4.5%. ''However, the hard part for the Fed will be convincing the markets that they are wrong about its perceived pivot,'' analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman argued, adding: ''The Fed will leave the door wide open for further rate hikes and Chair Powell will stress that the Fed is prepared to continue hiking rates beyond 5% and keep them there until 2024, as the December Dot Plots showed.  As things stand, the Fed is seen starting an easing cycle in H2 and we view that as highly unlikely.  New Dot Plots and macro forecasts won’t come until the March 21-22 meeting.  We will send out a more detailed FOMC Preview Monday morning.'' As for the US Nonfarm Payrolls, while it is expected to have continued to rise in January, the 175,000 increase in payrolls expected would be the smallest gain since a drop in December 2020. ''The labour market remains tight and layoffs are still very low. But the number of job openings has been edging lower and we look for a tick up in the unemployment rate to 3.6% from 3.5% in December,'' analysts at RBC Economics argued.  Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, the US dollar has been drifting sideways within the range of between 101.50 and 102.20, Friday's high, or 102.40 as per last week's highs as the following technical analysis illustrates:  US dollar technical analysis A break of the trendline would be a significant development for the week ahead with 102.50 eyed that guard 103.00 and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the weekly bearish impulse:

USD/JPY remains on the back foot around 129.90, despite recently bouncing off intraday low, as the traders in Tokyo begin the key week with mixed feel

USD/JPY struggles to extend two-week uptrend, bounces off intraday low of late.BoJ’s sustained defense of YCC contrasts with talks surrounding Fed’s pivot to keep bears hopeful.Rebound in yields, US Dollar challenge Yen pair sellers amid light calendar.China’s return from holidays, US employment numbers also eyed for clear directions.USD/JPY remains on the back foot around 129.90, despite recently bouncing off the intraday low, as the traders in Tokyo begin the key week with mixed feelings. In doing so, the Yen pair challenges the previous two-week uptrend amid sluggish yields, cautious optimism in the market. That said, China’s return from the Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays brought the good news of higher festive spending and the dragon nation’s readiness to boost consumption. On the same line could be the hopes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish hike after the last week’s mixed data. On Friday, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Ahead of that, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus the 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. Alternatively, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) repeated attempts to defend the Yield Curve Control (YCC), amid recently firmer inflation data from Tokyo, exert downside pressure on the USD/JPY prices. Against this backdrop, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain lackluster near 3.51% after snapping a two-week downtrend whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild losses. Looking forward, a light calendar may restrict immediate USD/JPY moves but China’s return from holidays could entertain momentum traders. It’s worth observing that the latest market favor for the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields may help the Yen pair in extending the previous two-week uptrend. Above all, this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision and the US employment data for January will be crucial for the market players to watch for clear directions. Technical analysis Although the 21-DMA and a two-week-old ascending support line restrict short-term USD/JPY moves between 130.30 and 129.30 in that order, bullish MACD signals and recently firmer RSI (14) suggests that the buyers are flexing muscles for entry.  

The AUD/NZD pair has displayed a sharp recovery move after a gap down open to near 1.0926 in the early Asian session. The cross is picking strength de

AUD/NZD is expected to extend recovery above 1.0950 despite firmer NZ Trade Balance data.A higher NZ labor cost index will escalate inflation projections further.Weaker Australian monthly Retail Sales might ease some troubles for the RBA. The AUD/NZD pair has displayed a sharp recovery move after a gap down open to near 1.0926 in the early Asian session. The cross is picking strength despite the release of the upbeat New Zealand Trade Balance data. Exports in December month improved to $6.72B versus the former release of $6.34B while Imports trimmed to $7.19B from the prior release of $8.52B. The annual Trade Balance landed at -14.46B (New Zealand Dollar) against -14.98B (NZD) released earlier. For further action, investors will keep an eye on the New Zealand Employment data, which will release on Wednesday. The Employment Change (Q4) is expected to drop to 0.7% from the former release of 1.3%. While the Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.3%. The New Zealand economy is failing to generate significant employment opportunities amid higher interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Apart from that, the labor cost index data will hog the limelight. The employment bills index (annual) is expected to escalate to 4.45 from the former release of 3.8%. And, the quarterly data is seen higher at 1.3% against 1.1% in the prior release. An increment in the labor cost might keep inflation pressures toward the hill side as households would be with more liquidity for disposal. It is worth noting that the New Zealand economy has not shown any sign of inflation softening as the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Q4) escalated to 7.2% from the consensus of 7.1% on an annual basis and a further extension in the retail demand will escalate the inflationary pressures. On the Aussie front, investors are keeping an eye on Tuesday’s monthly retail sales data, which is expected to display de-growth of 0.3% from the prior release of 1.4%. This might trim troubles for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is struggling the cap the stubborn inflation in the Australian economy.  

WTI crude oil renews intraday high near $80.20, following a gap-up start to the week, as traders await this week’s bumper data/events. In doing so, th

WTI crude oil picks up bids to widen the week-start gap towards the north.Hopes of more China demand, no change in OPEC+ policies keep oil buyers hopeful.Key US data, risk catalyst to entertain momentum traders and should be observed closely.WTI crude oil renews intraday high near $80.20, following a gap-up start to the week, as traders await this week’s bumper data/events. In doing so, the black gold cheers return of Chinese traders after a week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday, as well as optimism surrounding China-inspired boost to the energy demand. Chinese traders are up for returning to the table after one-week off and have already signalled readiness to boost the consumption. Chinese tax authority mentioned that week-long Lunar New Year holiday that ended on Friday propelled consumption by 12.2% from the same period last year. Furthermore, China's cabinet said on Saturday it would promote a consumption recovery as the major driver of the economy and boost imports, state broadcaster CCTV reported per Reuters. On the other hand, Reuters quoted anonymous sources to mention that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, is unlikely to recommend any changes to oil output policy on February 01 meeting. Apart from the OPEC+ and China concerns, the recently increasing odds of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) nearness to the policy pivot also adds strength to the WTI crude oil. During the last week, the better-than-expected fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December gained major attention. However, the actual releases were softer than their previous outcomes and hence signaled that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) front-loading of interest rates has finally helped exert downside pressure on spending and inflation fears. However, the cautious sentiment ahead of Fed meeting, OPEC+ JMMC verdict and the US employment data for January, not to forget China’s official activity numbers for January, seem to probe the Oil buyers. Technical analysis Although the 20-DMA puts a floor under the WTI crude oil prices near $78.70, the upside moves remain elusive unless crossing a two-month-old descending resistance line, close to $82.50 by the press time.  

China's cabinet said on Saturday it would promote a consumption recovery as the major driver of the economy and boost imports, state broadcaster CCTV

China's cabinet said on Saturday it would promote a consumption recovery as the major driver of the economy and boost imports, state broadcaster CCTV reported per Reuters. The news highlights cooling of global demand and recession concerns behind the readiness from China policymakers to act. The meeting was chaired by China Premier Li Keqiang wherein the State Council, which functions like Cabinet in China, owed to speed up the rollout of foreign investment projects, maintain a stable yuan, ease cross-border travel and help companies to participate in domestic and overseas trade shows, per the news. Developing story...

The USD/CAD pair is gauging an intermediate cushion around 1.3300 in the early Asian session. The Loonie asset is showing signs of exhaustion in the d

USD/CAD is building a firmer cushion around 1.330 amid sheer weakness in the oil price.The US labor market might not remain tight enough as opportunities are declining amid a bleak economic outlook.The rising oil supply from Russia at discounted prices to Asia triggered volatility in the oil price.The USD/CAD pair is gauging an intermediate cushion around 1.3300 in the early Asian session. The Loonie asset is showing signs of exhaustion in the downside trend despite the upbeat market mood. A sheer fall in the oil price was driven by weaker demand projections in the United States due to the expectations of an upcoming fresh interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is auctioning inside the woods from the past few trading sessions amid ambiguity in the market sentiment on a broader note. The upside in the USD Index is capped around 101.80 while the downside is supported near 101.20. S&P500 settled January last week on a positive note despite softening demand as reported by the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Dec) data. Corporate earnings are being impacted by declining retail demand but are delighted by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as it adds to the downside filters for inflation. This week, the primary catalyst that will keep investors uneasy is the interest rate decision by the Fed on Wednesday. As per the CME FedWatch tool, Fed chair Jerome Powell might increase interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50-4.75%. But before that, the release of the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data will remain in focus. The economic data is seen at 86K, significantly lower than the former release of 235K. Labor demand is softening dramatically as firms have paused their recruitment process due to the bleak economic outlook. On the oil front, investors dumped the oil price late Friday after Reuters reported that Russia’s oil loadings from its Baltic ports were set to rise by 50% in January from December levels in order to address the strong demand coming from Asia. Russian oil supply is accelerating despite the sanctions by the Western cartel. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the United States and lower oil prices impact the Canadian Dollar.  

USD/CHF bulls take a breather around 0.9210 during Monday’s sluggish Asian session, following a two-day uptrend, as traders await this week’s bumper d

USD/CHF grinds higher inside monthly triangle, struggling to extend two-day uptrend.Sustained break of 10-DMA, bullish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful.Buyers lurk around six-week-old descending support line.USD/CHF bulls take a breather around 0.9210 during Monday’s sluggish Asian session, following a two-day uptrend, as traders await this week’s bumper data/events. Also challenging the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair is the return of Chinese traders after a one-week-long Lunar New Year (LNY) holidays. It’s worth noting that the quote marked the first daily closing beyond the 10-DMA since January 11 the previous day. That said, the upside break of the short-term key moving average joins the bullish MACD signals to suggest the USD/CHF pair’s further upside. However, a symmetrical triangle formation connecting levels marked since January 06 restricts short-term USD/CHF moves between 0.9235 and 0.9170. It should be observed that a downward-sloping support line from December 14, 2022, close to 0.9125 by the press time, acts as an extra filter towards the north. In a case where the USD/CHF bears dominate past 0.9125, the 0.9100 round figure and the monthly low of 0.9085 could act as the last defense of the buyer. On the flip side, a successful break of 0.9235 hurdle could propel the USD/CHF buyers towards the monthly peak surroudning 0.9410. USD/CHF: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

NZD/USD prints mild losses around 0.6480, holding lower grounds near the intraday bottom following the week-start gap-down. In doing so, the Kiwi pair

NZD/USD fades bounce off intraday low even as New Zealand trade numbers improved in December.New Zealand Trade Balance and Exports grew, Imports eased in December.Cautious mood ahead of bumper data/events exerts downside pressure on Kiwi price.China’s return from one-week-long holidays could entertain traders.NZD/USD prints mild losses around 0.6480, holding lower grounds near the intraday bottom following the week-start gap-down. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fails to cheer the upbeat New Zealand (NZ) trade data, as well as portray the market’s cautious mood ahead of this week’s key data/events. New Zealand’s headlines Trade Balance improved to $-475M MoM for December versus $-2,108M prior while the yearly figure rose to $-14.46B compared to $-14.98B previous readings. Further details suggest that the Imports eased to $7.19B compared to $8.52B whereas the Exports increased to $6.72B for December compared to $6.34B prior. On the other hand, the better-than-expected fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December gained major attention. However, the actual releases were softer than their previous outcomes and hence signaled that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) front-loading of interest rates has finally helped exert downside pressure on spending and inflation fears. The aforementioned catalysts built market forecasts that the Fed may rethink its aggressive rate and the policy pivot. It’s worth observing, however, that the figures like Durable Goods Orders for December and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were joined by the last comments from the Fed policymakers resisting policy pivot to keep the hawks hopeful, which in turn weighed on the Gold price. Talking about the data, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Further, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. Furthermore, the growth of Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices weakened to 3.2% QoQ in Q4 compared to 4.3% marked forecast and prior readings. Further, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures eased to 3.9% QoQ for Q4 from 4.7% previous readings, versus 5.3% expected. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields managed to snap a three-week south-run while posting 0.60% weekly gain to 3.50% by the end of Friday. Wall Street benchmarks, on the other hand, printed mixed weekly close. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to post the lowest weekly loss in three, down 0.07% to 101.92 at the latest, despite posting the third weekly downtrend and refreshing the eight-month low. Having witnessed the initial reaction to New Zealand data, the NZD/USD pair traders should pay attention to China’s return and the reaction to the last week’s mostly upbeat US statistics, as well as preparations for this week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. It’s worth noting that softer New Zealand inflation data has already reduced the importance of this week’s Q4 NZ jobs report. Other than the Fed decision, the US employment data for December and China’s official activity numbers for the said month will also be crucial for near-term directions. Technical analysis A clear downside break of a three-week-old ascending trend line lures NZD/USD sellers towards the 21-DMA support, close to 0.6400 round figure. Alternatively, a convergence of the support-turned-resistance line and a downward-sloping trend line from January 18, close to 0.6520, appears the key hurdle for the Kiwi bulls to tackle to retake control.  

The GBP/USD pair has sensed selling interest near the round-level resistance of 1.2400 in early Asia after a gradual upside move. The cable is expecte

GBP/USD has dropped after facing barricades around 1.2400 despite the upbeat market mood.Volatility to remain squeezed ahead of the Fed-BoE interest rate policy.An oscillation by the RSI (14) in the 40.00-60.00 range indicates a consolidation head.The GBP/USD pair has sensed selling interest near the round-level resistance of 1.2400 in early Asia after a gradual upside move. The cable is expected to remain on the tenterhooks as investors are shifting their focus toward the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) this week. Meanwhile, the risk appetite of the market participants has been improved after a decline in the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index (Dec), which signified that the overall demand is softening along with inflationary pressures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is continuously declining from its capped upside around 101.80. On an hourly scale, GBP/USD is auctioning in an Ascending Triangle chart pattern, which indicates a slippage in volatility. The rationale behind the volatility contraction should be the monetary policy announcements by the Fed and the BoE this week. The upward-sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from January 24 low at 1.2263 while the horizontal resistance is placed from January 24 high around 1.2414. The 20- period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2382 is overlapping the cable, which indicates consolidation ahead. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates an absence of a potential trigger for a decisive move. Should the Cable break above the seven-month high of 1.2448 decisively, Pound Sterling bulls will drive the asset towards the psychological resistance of 1.2500 and the June 7 high around 1.2600. The Cable will display a sheer downside if it drops below Monday’s low at 1.2171 as it will drag the major toward January 11 low at 1.2100 followed by the psychological support at 1.2000. GBP/USD hourly chart  

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds lower ground near $1,925 after posting an indecisive weekly closing as the metal traders await the key United States data a

Gold price stays depressed after probing five-week uptrend with bearish candlestick on weekly, support line break.Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in question as United States data flash mixed signals.Fears of US recession join easing inflation woes to challenge US Dollar buyers, probing XAU/USD bears.Hawkish Fed, upbeat US statistics could recall Gold sellers.Gold price (XAU/USD) holds lower ground near $1,925 after posting an indecisive weekly closing as the metal traders await the key United States data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision. Also important will be central bank meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB), Purchasing Managers’ Indexes data and the US employment numbers for January. In doing so, the XAU/USD portrays the market’s inaction, as well as cautious mood ahead of the aforementioned catalysts, amid the absence of Chinese traders, Fed/ECB blackout and also due to the mixed US statistics. Mixed United States statistics probe US Dollar bears, weigh on Gold price Among the key data from the United States, better-than-expected fourth-quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December gained major attention. However, the actual releases were softer than their previous outcomes and hence signaled that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) front-loading of interest rates has finally helped exert downside pressure on spending and inflation fears. That same built market forecasts that the Fed may rethink its aggressive rate and the policy pivot. It’s worth observing, however, that the figures like Durable Goods Orders for December and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were joined by the last comments from the Fed policymakers resisting policy pivot to keep the hawks hopeful, which in turn weighed on the Gold price. That said, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, matched 4.4% YoY market forecast versus 4.7% prior while the monthly figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.2% expected and previous readings. Further, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) first estimate of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product marked an annualized growth rate of 2.9% versus 2.6% expected and 3.2% prior. On the same line, the Durable Goods Orders jumped 5.6% in December versus 2.5% market forecast and -1.7% upwardly revised prior. Furthermore, the growth of Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices weakened to 3.2% QoQ in Q4 compared to 4.3% marked forecast and prior readings. Further, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures eased to 3.9% QoQ for Q4 from 4.7% previous readings, versus 5.3% expected. Even with the mixed US data, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields managed to snap a three-week south-run while posting 0.60% weekly gain to 3.50% by the end of Friday. Wall Street benchmarks, on the other hand, printed mixed weekly close. Amid these plays, the US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to post the lowest weekly loss in three, down 0.07% to 101.92 at the latest, despite posting the third weekly downtrend and refreshing the eight-month low. Given the inverse relationship between the Gold price and US Dollar, the XAU/USD bulls take a breather ahead of the key data/events. Federal Reserve’s dovish hike can recall XAU/USD buyers The aforementioned United States (US) data contrasts with the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers’ hesitance to welcome doves, which in turn will be interesting to watch for Gold traders. The reason could be linked to the nearness of the US central bank’s pivot rate of around 4.50% and the market’s talks of no rate hikes after a 0.25% increase in benchmark rates in February. That said, CME’s FedWatch tool suggests considerable favor for the 0.25% rate hike in this week’s monetary policy meeting of the Fed but nearly no supporters of one such move in March. Hence, a dovish hike is on the table and can tease the Gold buyers unless Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounds hawkish. Considering this, analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said, “After starting early and front-loading hikes last year, the Fed is expected to further reduce the amplitude of its hiking and raise the fed funds rate by 25b to 4.50–4.75%. We still think it is close to reaching levels where it will pause. However, the buoyancy in the labor market and slow pace with which services inflation is expected to fall remain problematic, underpinning our view that rates will stay at peak levels in 2023. “ United States employment data to direct post-Fed Gold moves Apart from the Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns, the United States (US) monthly job report for January will also be important for Gold traders. As per the market forecasts, the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to ease to 175K from 223K prior while the Unemployment Rate might also inch up from 3.5% to 3.6%. It’s worth observing that an anticipated uptick in the Average Hourly Earnings, to 4.9% YoY versus 4.6% prior, might contradict the downbeat forecasts for top-tier job numbers and may defend Gold sellers. Many more catalysts to entertain XAU/USD traders Other than the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) showdown and the United States jobs report for January, the monetary policy verdict of the European Central Bank (ECB) will also be important for Gold traders as it affects the US Dollar via Euro (EUR) moves. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) will provide extra directions to the XAU/USD traders. It should be noted that the hawkish ECB outcome is on the table and could challenge the Gold sellers, by exerting downside pressure on the US Dollar. On the same line, the ISM Services PMI grabbed XAU/USD buyer’s attention after marking the first below-50 figure, suggesting a contraction in activities since June 2020, for December 2022 during early January. Hence, any further deterioration in the key US activity numbers could offer a bumpy road to the Gold sellers even if the Fed and US employment data favor XAU/USD weakness. Also read: Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Bulls to remain in control as long as $1,900 stays intact Gold price technical analysis Gold price slipped into bear’s radar after breaking a two-week-old support line on Friday, now resistance around $1,940. Not only the support line break but the looming bear cross on the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator and a pullback in the Relative Strength (RSI) line, placed at 14, also teases the XAU/USD sellers. Gold price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected Additionally favoring the Gold sellers is the “Gravestone Doji” bearish candlestick on the weekly formation, as well as overbought RSI (14) on the same timeframe. Gold price: Weekly chart Trend: Pullback expected That said, the $1,900 threshold and the January 18 swing low surrounding $1,896 restrict short-term Gold downside. Following that, the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA), near $1,892 by the press time, could act as the last defense of the metal buyers. On the flip side, the immediate support-turned-resistance line near $1,940 holds the key to the Gold buyer’s re-entry. Following that, the multi-month high marked in the last week around $1,950 and March 2022 peak close to $1,966 will precede an upward-sloping resistance line from the mid-December 2022, surrounding $1,972 at the latest, to challenge the Gold bulls. It’s worth noting that the XAU/USD run-up beyond the $1,972 hurdle won’t hesitate to challenge the $2,000 psychological magnet.  

The Wall Street Journal has written in the weekend press that ''stubbornly high inflation is finally easing as supply chain disruptions fade and inter

The Wall Street Journal has written in the weekend press that ''stubbornly high inflation is finally easing as supply chain disruptions fade and interest rates at 15-year highs put the brakes on demand. Now, Federal Reserve officials have voiced unease that prices could reaccelerate because labour markets are so tight.'' ''At issue is what’s the right way to forecast inflation: a bottoms-up analysis of recent readings on prices and wages that puts more weight on pandemic-driven idiosyncrasies — or a traditional top-down analysis of how far the economy is operating above or below its normal capacity,'' Nick Timiraos wrote, adding, ''Some inside the Fed, including its influential staff, put more weight on the latter, which would argue for tighter policy for longer. Others prefer the former, which could argue for a milder approach.'' US Dollar update, daily chart The US Dollar edged up from eight-month lows on Friday despite slowing inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve this week whereby investors are hoping that the central bank can engineer an economic soft landing and reduce its pace of aggressive monetary tightening. DXY is trapped between support and resistance in the front side of the daily bearish trend. However, should the Fed's communication still emphasize that it is not done yet in terms of tightening its policy stance, signalling that more rate hikes are still in the pipeline, US Dollar volatility could be extreme this week. 

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to extend its recovery move above the immediate resistance of 1.0870 in the early Tokyo session. The major currency pai

EUR/USD is looking to extend gains beyond 1.0870 amid the risk-on market mood.A decline in the US core PCE price index has strengthened the expectations of a smaller rate hike by the Fed.German GDP might remain stagnant in the last quarter of CY2022.The EUR/USD pair is struggling to extend its recovery move above the immediate resistance of 1.0870 in the early Tokyo session. The major currency pair delivered a rebound move from the previous week’s low around 1.0840 amid a restricted upside in the US Dollar index (DXY). The USD Index failed in delivering a break above the critical resistance of 101.80 as the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a decline in the annual Federal Reserve (Fed)’s preferred inflation tool- core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Dec) to 4.4% from the former release of 4.7%. However, the monthly PCE price index data escalated to 0.3% from the expectations and the prior release of 0.2%. A decline in the core PCE data was already expected by the market participants considering the drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December month. This has bolstered the odds of a smaller interest rate hike by the Fed in its February monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for Wednesday. Investors’ risk appetite is solid as risk-perceived assets like S&P500 futures ended Friday and last week with significant gains. The 500-US stock basket posted gains straight for the third week despite softening demand. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yields managed to sustain above the critical resistance of 3.50%. On the Eurozone front, investors will deliver a decent action after the release of the preliminary German Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) data on Monday. The economic data on a quarterly basis is seen at 0% lower than the prior figure of 0.4%. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have been reiterating that the ECB might face a slight recession, however, the odds of a deep recession have been trimmed considering the resilience in the economy due to the tight labor market and easing supply chain bottlenecks. This week, the major focus will be on the interest rate decision by ECB President Christine Lagarde, which is scheduled for Thursday. As per the consensus, the ECB might hike the interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.50%.    

Reuters reported that the People's Bank of China will roll over a lending tool for supporting carbon emission reduction to the end of 2024, The PBoC w

Reuters reported that the People's Bank of China will roll over a lending tool for supporting carbon emission reduction to the end of 2024, The PBoC will also extend a re-lending tool for promoting the clean use of coal to the end of 2023.  ''The move to extend the lending tools will help "precisely and effectively implement the prudent monetary policy, guide financial institutions to increase support for green development and other areas", the central bank said. ''Since 2020, when the world's second-largest economy was first jolted by the coronavirus, the central bank has expanded its arsenal of structural policy tools, including re-lending and rediscount facilities and other low-cost loans.'' ''he central bank is poised to ramp up targeted support for troubled sectors through its structural policy tools, according to policy sources and analysts.''
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การเตือนความเสี่ยง: การเทรดมีความเสี่ยง เงินทุนของคุณมีความเสี่ยง Exinity Limited มีการกำกับดูแลโดย FSC (มอริเชียส)