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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Friday, April 10, 2020

In remarks previewing next week’s virtual meetings of the 189-nation International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Managing Director Kristalin

In remarks previewing next week’s virtual meetings of the 189-nation International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the coronavirus pandemic will drown the global economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. Key quotes “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression. The IMF will release an updated world economic forecast on Tuesday that will show just how quickly the coronavirus outbreak has turned what had been expected to be a solid year of growth into a deep downturn. With weak health systems to begin with, many face the dreadful challenge of fighting the virus in densely populated cities and poverty-stricken slums, where social distancing is hardly an option. I stress there is tremendous uncertainty around the outlook. It could get worse depending on many variable factors, including the duration of the pandemic.”

Prices of the ounce troy of the precious metal are fading part of Thursday’s advance to fresh monthly highs in the $1,690 region. Gold surges post-Fed

Prices of the yellow metal recedes from recent highs.The Fed’s latest stimulus package helped the metal’s upside.US CPI results coming up next on the docket.Prices of the ounce troy of the precious metal are fading part of Thursday’s advance to fresh monthly highs in the $1,690 region. Gold surges post-Fed, looks to CPIGold prices surged to the highest level since March 9 in the wake of another stimulus package unveiled by the Federal Reserve on Thursday. This time, the Fed will pump around $2.3 trillion to support small and medium-sized businesses, municipalities and workers hurt by the coronavirus outbreak. In fact, after two consecutive daily declines, prices of the safe haven metal rose sharply on Thursday in response to the Fed’s latest stimulus measures, while remain supported by the increasing liquidity in the global markets (following global easing from central banks) and the impact of the coronavirus fallout. In the meantime, the ounce troy of gold has practically fully retraced the March decline and is already trading at shouting distance from yearly highs just above the $1,700 mark (March 9). Moving forward, US inflation figures gauged by  the CPI will be the salient event in the calendar on Good Friday along with the publication of the Monthly Budget Statement. Gold key levels As of writing Gold is losing 0.40% at $1,675.00 and faces the next support at $1,608.25 (38.2% Fibo of the December-March rally) followed by $1,598.15 (55-day SMA) and then $1,567.80 (monthly low Apr.1). On the other hand, a breakout of $1,690.33 (monthly high Apr.1) would expose $1,703.60 (2020 high Mar.9) and then $1,723.30 (monthly high December 2012).

Turkey 3mth quarterly jobless average climbed from previous 13.7% to 13.8% in January

China's foreign trade faces an unprecedented challenge in years due to the coronavirus epidemic, said the country’s Assistant Commerce Minister Ren on

China's foreign trade faces an unprecedented challenge in years due to the coronavirus epidemic, said the country’s Assistant Commerce Minister Ren on Friday. Further quotes Trade firms face difficulties in having their orders cancelled or delayed, with new orders at risk. Firms' ability to get parts from neighboring countries has greatly decreased.

AUD/USD picks up fresh bids and refreshes a new four-week high at 0.6370, breaking the Asian consolidative range to the upside in early European trade

AUD bulls benefit from broad USD weakness, better market mood.Downbeat Chinese inflation, oil slump ignored.Eyes on US CPI data, coronavirus updates and G20 Summit. AUD/USD picks up fresh bids and refreshes a new four-week high at 0.6370, breaking the Asian consolidative range to the upside in early European trades. The Good Friday holiday-thinned light trading seems to have stretched the latest uptick in the aussie, as most major European markets are closed today amid the Easter break.  At the time of writing, the spot trades 0.38% higher at 0.6362. The latest uptick can be also partly justified by the persisting selling interest seen around the greenback against its main rivals, especially in light of Thursday’s disappointing US new jobless claims data and Fed’s additional stimulus announcement. The US dollar index holds the lower ground at 99.45, down -0.07% so far. The commodity-currency buyers seem to ignore the recent 8% drop in oil prices after Mexico rejected the OPEC+ oil output cuts deal. Also, the disappointing Chinese CPI and PPI data for March also failed to hurt the bulls, as they stay motivated ahead of the US CPI data, G20 Energy Ministers meeting and the final OPEC+ outcome. AUD/USD technical levels to watch  

France Industrial Output (MoM) above expectations (0.1%) in February: Actual (0.9%)

The Kremlin said in a statement on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, confirmed in a

The Kremlin said in a statement on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, confirmed in a phone call on Friday, the OPEC+ aim of stabilizing the global oil trade, per Reuters. They also discussed the forthcoming G20 online conference of energy ministries, which is scheduled to be held later on Friday, Kremlin added. Saudi OilMin: OPEC+ output cuts 'hinges on' Mexico joining the pact WTI Price Analysis: Presssured around $23.00 inside weekly falling channel

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) down to -40.8% in March from previous -30.1%

Japan Machine Tool Orders (YoY) rose from previous -30.1% to 40.8% in March

The soft note around the greenback is dragging USD/JPY to the 108.30 region on Good Friday, area coincident with the key 200-day SMA. USD/JPY risks fu

USD/JPY stays on the defensive around 108.30 on Friday.Investors remain sceptical on the ¥108 trillion aid package.US Fed releases another stimulus package worth $2.3 trillion.The soft note around the greenback is dragging USD/JPY to the 108.30 region on Good Friday, area coincident with the key 200-day SMA. USD/JPY risks further downside USD/JPY is down for the second session in a row so far on Good Friday, navigating the vicinity of the 200-day SMA near 108.30 against the backdrop of increasing concerns on the coronavirus outbreak in Japan, extra stimulus pumped by the Federal Reserve and scepticism on the recently announced emergency economic package by the Japanese government. In fact, Tokyo is expected to announce suspension measures in several businesses in light of the broad-based state of emergency declared in the country following the pick-up in infected cases as of late. Furthermore, investors remain sceptical on the effectiveness to counter the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy of the ¥108 trillion stimulus package released by the government earlier in the week, hinting at the likeliness that extra fiscal measures would surely be needed. In the US, the Federal Reserve said it will inject $2.3 trillion in order to support local governments and small-medium sized companies. The Fed’s measure came after weekly claims rose by around 6.6 million during last week. USD/JPY levels to consider As of writing the pair is down 0.06% at 108.40 and faces immediate contention at 108.20 (weekly lows Apr.9) seconded by 106.92 (monthly low Apr.1) and then 106.48 (monthly low Oct.3 2019). On the other hand, a breakout of 109.38 (monthly high Apr.6) would aim to 111.71 (monthly high Mar.24) would open the door to 112.22 (2020 high Feb.20).

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 113,525, w

According to the German disease and epidemic control center, Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the number of confirmed coronavirus cases rose to 113,525, with a total of 2,373 deaths reported on Friday.    Cases increased by 5,323 in Germany, the most in six days. The death toll jumped by 266, higher than Thursday’s 246 increase.   The above stats only show that its still a long way for the virus curve to flatten and for the government to lift the lockdown measures.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 10: The US dollar remained broadly depressed amid holiday-thinned Good Friday Asian trading. Dismal US

Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 10: The US dollar remained broadly depressed amid holiday-thinned Good Friday Asian trading. Dismal US Initial Jobless Claims and the Fed’s additional stimulus announcements kept the USD bulls at bay. Most major world markets will remain closed this Friday on account of the Easter Holiday. Asian markets were a mixed bag in light trading following gains on Wall Street overnight. The US equity futures rallied while Treasury yields traded on the back foot. Across the fx board, tight trading ranges remained in play, with USD/JPY stay bid around 108.50. Both the Antipodeans consolidated the recent surge, as AUD/USD flirted with 0.6350 while the kiwi tested the 0.6100 level. USD/CAD slipped below 1.4000 despite the oil-price weakness. The EUR and the GBP held on to recent gains amid a broadly weaker US dollar. The cable traded better bid above 1.2450 as the bulls cheered that news that UK PM Johnson is out of the intensive care. Eurogroup agreed half a trillion euros worth of coronavirus rescue package. EUR/USD ranged between 1.0920-50.   Gold prices traded modestly flat below $1690, awaiting the US CPI report for a move above 1700 mark. Crude oil prices slump in early trades and since then is in a consolidation phase. Despite the OPEC+ agreeing on a 10 million bpd output cuts, effective from May, Mexico’s rejection of the deal swept the floors off the bulls. WTI fell briefly below $23 level, losing nearly 8%. Coronavirus-related statistics worldwide will be watched closely along with the G20 energy ministers meeting and day 2 of the OPEC+ meeting. Cryptocurrencies traded in the red, with Bitcoin back below $7k mark. News Previews None

Although WTI stays depressed from the lack of agreement on an output cut, USD/CAD prefers taking clues from the broad US dollar weakness while declini

USD/CAD remains depressed amid the broad US dollar weakness.WTI’s weakness over OPEC+ disagreement over output cut fails to strengthen the pair.G20, US CPI will be watched for fresh impulse.Although WTI stays depressed from the lack of agreement on an output cut, USD/CAD prefers taking clues from the broad US dollar weakness while declining to 1.3955, down 0.15%, amid early Good Friday. Despite the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement over 10 million barrels per day of output reduction, the final say of the OPEC+ group, including Russia, is still awaited as Mexico recently hit against the moves. As a result, today’s G20 meeting of the energy ministers will be important to watch for the final decision. On the other hand, the US dollar bears the burden of disappointing Jobless Claims and Michigan Consumer Sentiment while also following downbeat comments of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. It should also be noted that comparatively better coronavirus (COVID-19) situations in Canada over the US also weigh on the pair. In addition to the G20 updates on the much-awaited production cuts, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March will also be crucial as it will show the actual impact of the pandemic on the price pressures. Forecasts suggest, US CPI drop to 1.6% versus 2.3% prior on YoY while CPI ex Food & Energy could decline to 2.3% from 2.4%. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close beyond a 21-day SMA level of 1.4160, the pair can keep gradually declining towards 50-day SMA near 1.3700.  

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is adding to Thursday’s losses and navigates the 99.50/40 band. US Dollar Index offered post-Fed

DXY extends losses to the 99.50/40 band on Good Friday.The Fed announced an extra $2.3 trillion stimulus plan on Thursday.Initial Claims rose by 6.6 million during last week, surpassing estimates.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is adding to Thursday’s losses and navigates the 99.50/40 band. US Dollar Index offered post-Fed, looks to COVID-19, data The index is down for the second consecutive session on Good Friday, picking up extra downside pressure following the recent breakdown of the key support at 100.00 the figure. The dollar receded further in past hours after the Federal Reserve announced on Thursday another stimulus package in the form of $2.3 trillion destined to small and medium sized businesses, municipalities and the corporate debt market. Additionally, the US labour market deteriorated further after nearly 6.6 million citizens filed for unemployment during last week (vs. 5.5 million forecasted), adding to the surge in Initial Claims observed in the previous two weeks. Later in the NA session, US inflation figures tracked by the CPI for the month of March will be the only release of note along with the Monthly Budget Statement. What to look for around USD DXY is navigating the second half of the week in a bearish bias following the recently announced Fed measures and further deterioration of the US labour market. In the meantime, all the attention remains on the developments from the coronavirus amidst countries extending their lockdown periods, speculation of a global recession and further deterioration of fundamentals. On the supportive side for the buck, market participants seem to prefer the dollar vs. other safe havens like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in cases when risk aversion kicks in, all helped by its status of “global reserve currency” and store of value. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the index is retreating 0.04% at 99.52 and faces the next support at 98.91 (55-day SMA) followed by 98.27 (weekly low Mar.27) and then 98.15 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a break above 100.93 (weekly/monthly high Apr.6) would open the door to 101.34 (monthly high Apr.10 2017) and finally 102.99 (2020 high Mar.20).

Early Friday, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike crossed wires while requesting businesses to remain close during the state of emergency.

Early Friday, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike crossed wires while requesting businesses to remain close during the state of emergency. Key quotes Will ask to close leisure, sporting, shopping facilities. Seeks to halt sporting events, exhibits due to the virus outbreak. Will offer ¥500,000 to companies closing operations. Will offers ¥1,000,000 to firms closing multiple operations. FX implications While the news should have negatively affected the market’s risk-tone, Good Friday holidays in major economies make it a non-event. Even so, Tokyo’s TOPIX stops further upside beyond 1,427, up 0.71%, after the update.

Although Good Friday’s inactive session restricts USD/CHF moves, the pair remains on the back foot around 0.9660 after breaking near-term key supports

USD/CHF remains on the back foot after breaking near-term key supports, Good Friday holiday restricts the moves.Late-March lows, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on sellers’ radars.200-day SMA adds to the resistance beyond the latest ones.Although Good Friday’s inactive session restricts USD/CHF moves, the pair remains on the back foot around 0.9660 after breaking near-term key supports the previous day. Considering the pair’s sustained trading below 50-day SMA and a month-old rising trend line, it is expected to extend the drop towards 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of its March month upside, respectively near 0.9630 and 0.9540. It should also be noted that the March 30 low around 0.9500 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement close to 0.9460 could please the bears below 0.9540. Meanwhile, the pair’s ability to cross 0.9675/85 support-turned-resistance area could pull it back towards 23.6% Fibonacci retracement figure around 0.9735. However, buyers are less likely to be called back unless the quote registers a daily closing past-200-day SMA level of 0.9805. USD/CHF daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

With the Good Friday off in major global markets, GBP/USD remains modestly changed around 1.2465 during the early day moves. In doing so, the pair see

GBP/USD registers modest gains as markets are inactive on a Good Friday holiday.UK PM Boris Johnson’s departure from ICU, broad US dollar weakness pleased buyers off-late.The coronavirus update, Brexit drama continues to offer background music, US CPI awaited.With the Good Friday off in major global markets, GBP/USD remains modestly changed around 1.2465 during the early day moves. In doing so, the pair seems to cheer the UK PM Johnson’s exit from the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) amid a lack of major data/catalysts ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. During late-Thursday in the UK, the Tory leader was shifted from the ICU but kept in the hospital. No 10 said he "has been moved this evening from intensive care back to the ward, where he will receive close monitoring during the early phase of his recovery,” as per the BBC. On the broader scale, Reuters said that total UK hospital deaths from COVID-19 rose by 881 to 7,978 as of 1600 GMT on April 8, the government said on Thursday. As a result, the risk tone struggles between smile and cry as the UK jostles with the coronavirus (COVID-19) virus. Also affecting the Cable were the pessimism surrounding Brexit date as the new Labour Party shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds urged ministers to beware putting "ideology over the national interest". On the other hand, the UK Express conveyed the headlines suggesting the Transition period delay could cost UK taxpayer £26 billion a year. Elsewhere, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell anticipated downbeat economics during the second quarter (Q2) of 2020 before expecting the recovery in the second half of the year. While portraying the risk-tone, Japan’s TOPIX recently recovered to 1,424, up 0.56%, whereas stocks in China remain mixed by the press time. Given the lack of major data/catalysts ahead of the US data, investors may search for the coronavirus updates for intermediate direction. However, the expectedly downbeat US inflation figures for March could keep the pair strong. Technical analysis Buyers await an upside clearance of March 27 high surrounding 1.2485 to target 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the daily chart, respectively at 1.2560 and 1.2660.  

OPEC+ output cuts 'hinges on' Mexico joining the pact, said Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz on Friday. more to come ...

OPEC+ output cuts 'hinges on' Mexico joining the pact, said Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz on Friday.   more to come ...

Following a brief consolidative stint in the overnight trades, EUR/USD caught a fresh bid-wave and headed back towards the weekly tops of 1.0951, as t

EUIR/USD regains poise amid weaker USD, light trading.Eurogroup agreed half a trillion euro coronavirus rescue plan. Next of note remains the US CPI data and G20 Energy Summit. Following a brief consolidative stint in the overnight trades, EUR/USD caught a fresh bid-wave and headed back towards the weekly tops of 1.0951, as the US dollar resumed the decline across the board. US dollar knocked-off again by Fed’s extra stimulus The main currency pair got a fresh boost on Thursday and reached a new five day high after the US dollar was broadly sold-off into the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) additional stimulus announcement to contain the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. The infectious disease has by far affected more than 1.5 million people worldwide, including over 450K Americans. The greenback also dealt a blow from the US Initial Jobless Claims data release, which showed that the weekly new claims topped 6 million for the second straight time last week. The US dollar index drops 0.06% to 99.46, having hit a daily high at 99.63 in early Asia. On the EUR-side of the equation, signs of new infections and deaths tally slowing across the hotspots in Europe lifted the sentiment around the common currency. Meanwhile, the news that the Eurogroup finally reached a half a trillion euros virus rescue package further offers support to the EUR bulls. Looking ahead, the USD dynamics and virus updates will continue to play a pivotal role, as attention shifts to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Fed’s Mester’s speech and the G20 energy ministers meeting for fresh trading impulse. EUR/USD technical levels to watch  

With the coronavirus crisis weighs the market’s risk, Gold remains on the bulls’ radar while taking rounds to $1,685 last. Also supporting the yellow

Gold remains on the front foot, benefit from the risk-off, US dollar weakness.Pessimism surrounding the coronavirus, downbeat US data and Fed Chair Powell’s comments propel the bullion.Good Friday holiday limit the moves, US data can offer intermediate direction.With the coronavirus crisis weighs the market’s risk, Gold remains on the bulls’ radar while taking rounds to $1,685 last. Also supporting the yellow metal’s buying could be the weak US dollar despite the Fed’s action. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday reported 427,460 cases of coronavirus, an increase of 32,449 cases from its previous count, and said the number of deaths had risen by 1,942 to 14,696, per Reuters. It should also be noted that the CDC earlier announced ‘no sail’ order to all cruise ships. As a result, the US remains the world’s second-worst affected nation due to the virus after Italy. The pandemic is likely to weigh on the economic performance and has already started signaling downbeat data, the US Jobless Claims and Michigan Consumer Confidence were the latest. Also portraying the economic toll were inflation numbers from China and Japan. To fight against the deadly disease, the US policymakers have already agreed on $2.3 trillion worth of economic package while some more relief is likely on the cards. On Thursday, the Fed offered relief for mid-sized businesses as a part of the stimulus. While Good Friday holiday could restrict market’s moves, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, expected 1.6% versus 2.3% prior on YoY, as well as CPI ex Food & Energy, forecast to drop to 2.3% from 2.4%, will be the key to watch. Technical analysis An area including highs marked during late-February and early-March, around $1,690/93, will be the first one to challenge the bulls. Following that, an upward sloping trend line from March 13, currently at $1,700, will be crucial. On the downside, the weekly low surrounding $1,641 acts as the immediate support ahead of $1,600 and 21-day SMA close to $1,591.  

Japanese Industry Minister urged G20 energy minister to emphasize the need for stable oil prices and its importance. This comes after the OPEC and no

 Japanese Industry Minister urged G20 energy minister to emphasize the need for stable oil prices and its importance. This comes after the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) managed to outline oil output cuts deal of slashing the production by 10 million barrels per day starting in May, in an effort to balance the market. However, the deal is delayed due to Mexico’s rejection. The focus now remains on the G20 energy minister summit scheduled later on Friday at 1400 GMT for fresh impetus on oil prices. At the moment, WTI keeps the heavy tone just above the 23 level, shedding 7.50% so far.

Following its U-turn from the key Fibonacci retracement, WTI forms a short-term falling channel while declining to $23.10.

WTI remains on the back foot inside following its U-turn from 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.Channel’s support, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement could check further downside.Buyers could target $30.00 during the sustained run-up.Following its U-turn from the key Fibonacci retracement, WTI forms a short-term falling channel while declining to $23.10. 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of March 13-30 fall and the channel’s support, near $22.50/40, can question the oil benchmark’s immediate downside. If bears chose to ignore the channel formation, $20.50, $19.80 and the previous month’s low near $19.00 could return to the charts. On the upside, 38.2% and 50% of Fibonacci retracement, respectively around $24.470 and $26.50, could challenge the black gold’s recovery ahead of the channel’s resistance near $27.15. Also exerting downside pressure on the oil prices could be 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $28.25 that holds the gate for $30.00. WTI four-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Following two consecutive days of a marathon of discussions, European Union (EU) finance ministers, Eurogroup, finally agreed on half-a-trillion euros

Following two consecutive days of a marathon of discussions, European Union (EU) finance ministers, Eurogroup, finally agreed on half-a-trillion euros worth of economic stimulus relief package to rescue their economies heavily battered by the coronavirus pandemic, per Reuters. However, the agreement failed to resolve the impending issues as how they would finance recovery in the bloc headed for a steep recession. “The agreement was reached after EU powerhouse Germany, as well as France, put their feet down to end opposition from the Netherlands over attaching economic conditions to emergency credit for governments weathering the impacts of the pandemic, and offered Italy assurances that the bloc would show solidarity,” Reuters reported. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was quick to comment: “Europe has shown that it can rise to the occasion of this crisis,”, praising what he said was the most important economic plan in EU history.

South Korea Money Supply Growth: 8% (February) vs 7.7%

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday, South Korea confirmed 27 new coronavirus cases, with the total count now at 10,45

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Friday, South Korea confirmed 27 new coronavirus cases, with the total count now at 10,450. The new confirmed cases saw the lowest daily count since its peak of more than 900 cases in late February. The South reported four new deaths, bringing up the death toll to 208. The city of Daegu, which endured the first large coronavirus outbreak outside of China, y reported zero new cases for the first time since late February. USD/KRW reaction Amid holiday-thinned light trading, USD/KRW experienced wild swings in early Asia, as the South Korean won fell nearly $5 vs. the greenback to a new daily high of 1,215.60. At the time of writing, USD/KRW trades 0.22% higher at 1,213.31, as the bulls continue to guard the 1210-1208 area.

While stepping back from a fortnight-old resistance, GBP/USD trades near 1.2450, currently around 1.2460, amid the early part of generally less liquid

GBP/USD steps back from two-week-old horizontal resistance.Good Friday holidays limit immediate moves.A two-day-old support line, 200-HMA could question sellers.Buyers may target 50-day and 200-day SMAs during the successful upside.While stepping back from a fortnight-old resistance, GBP/USD trades near 1.2450, currently around 1.2460, amid the early part of generally less liquid Good Friday. Considering the pair’s latest pullback moves, odds of its drop to the immediate support line, around 1.2425 are much brighter. Though, 1.2400 round-figure and 200-bar SMA near 1.2355 will limit the pair’s further declines. Alternatively, an upside clearance of March 27 high surrounding 1.2485 could propel buyers to target 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the daily chart, respectively at 1.2560 and 1.2660. GBP/USD hourly chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Citing sources familiar with the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) talks, Reuters reports Mexico maintains opposition on the output cuts deal before

Citing sources familiar with the OPEC and non-OPEC producers (OPEC+) talks, Reuters reports that Mexico maintains opposition on the output cuts deal before initially agreeing to it. The OPEC+ sources said: Mexico initially agreed to the cut and the coalition was on the verge of finalizing the deal “but Mexico is not happy with it a new quota of 1.353 million b/d, as the country plans to unveil a $13.5 billion energy investment package to help state oil company Pemex raise its production to 2 million b/d by the end of the year.” S&P Global Platts, is a provider of energy and commodities information, meanwhile added,” the coalition could try to convince Mexico again Friday at a G20 energy ministerial. With Mexico, not the only country needing convincing, the G20 summit promises to be another test of geopolitical wills.” According to a text of the agreement seen by Platts, the following is the proposed deal – “10 million b/d OPEC+ cut for May and June then scale it back to 8 million b/d for the rest of 2020. Then down to 6 million b/d for all of 2021 through April 22.” Oil price reaction On the above news, oil prices extended the overnight downslide, with WTI downed to a new five-day low of 22.60. At the time of writing, WTI trades at 23.21, still down 7.50% on a daily basis.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0354 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0536.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0354 versus Thursday's fix at 7.0536.

AUD/USD pays a little heed to China’s downbeat inflation data for March while taking rounds to 0.6320 following Beijing open on Friday. Even so, the p

AUD/USD remains mildly weak after China’s March month CPI/PPI drop below downbeat forecasts.Risk-tone struggles for clues amid coronavirus crisis, Fed Chair Powell cited fears previous.US inflation data, virus updated might entertain traders during the Good Friday’s calm sessions.AUD/USD pays a little heed to China’s downbeat inflation data for March while taking rounds to 0.6320 following Beijing open on Friday. Even so, the pair stays under pressure amid challenges to the risk. China’s March month Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPOI) data fell below forecasts to 4.3% and -1.5% respectively on the YoY basis. Read: China's CPI rises 4.3% YoY in March, misses estimates It’s worth mentioning that Good Friday holidays in Australia and the major part of the world limit the Aussie pair’s reaction to the downbeat China data. The pair’s recent weakness could be attributed to actions from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as well as the Fed Chair’s worrisome statements. However, US President Donald Trump’s readiness to help the Americans fight the coronavirus (COVID-19) seems to help the risk-tone. While portraying the risk, Japan’s TOPIX slipped below 1,400 mark, down 0.70%, to currently trade around 1,407. Moving on, although Good Friday holidays in most markets are likely to limit the pair’s moves during the rest of the day, US inflation data is up for publishing and may offer intermediate moves. Technical analysis Failures to cross 50-day SMA, currently near 0.6385, drag the quote towards the March-end top surrounding 0.6215. On the upside break of 0.6385, February month low near 0.6435 can challenge the bulls.  

According to the latest data published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Good Friday, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) arrived at +4.3%

According to the latest data published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Good Friday, the Consumer Price Index (YoY) arrived at +4.3% last month vs. +4.8% exp and +5.2% booked in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI came in at -1.2% in March vs. -0.7% exp and +0.8% last. Meanwhile, China’s Producer Price Index (YoY) (March) came in at -1.5% in vs. -1.1% exp and -0.4% last.            About China CPI The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services. The result is a comprehensive summary of the results extracted from the urban consumer price index and rural consumer price index. The purchasing power of the CNY is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A substantial consumer price index increase would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, potentially prompting The People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.

China Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (-0.7%) in March: Actual (-1.2%)

China Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (-1.1%) in March: Actual (-1.5%)

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 4.3%, below expectations (4.8%) in March

While taking a U-turn from the short-term resistance trend line, EUR/USD drops to 1.0920 amid the early Friday morning. Although the pair’s pullback m

EUR/USD remains soft amid the Good Friday holiday in major markets.The pair’s pullback from the monthly resistance line portrays further declines.An upside break needs validation from 200-bar SMA.While taking a U-turn from the short-term resistance trend line, EUR/USD drops to 1.0920 amid the early Friday morning. Although the pair’s pullback moves from key resistance signals further declines, Good Friday holidays in most markets seem to limit the pair’s performance. Even so, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of March month fall, around 1.0840/35 stays on the sellers’ radars. However, an ascending trend line from March 22, near 1.0810 now, could limit the pair’s further downside. On the upside, the pair’s sustained break of 1.0935 trend line isn’t going to recall the buyers as 200-bar SMA surrounding 1.1015 offers an additional upside barrier. EUR/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Early Friday around 01:30 GMT, the market sees March month headline inflation numbers from China, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Produc

China CPI/PPI overview Early Friday around 01:30 GMT, the market sees March month headline inflation numbers from China, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). China’s annualized CPI reading is expected to drop from 5.2% to 4.8% with PPI YoY likely declining to -1.1% versus -0.4% earlier. On the MoM basis, CPI bears the forecast to slip from +0.8% to -0.4%. With the figures likely to portray the economic reaction during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, AUD/USD traders will be keenly watching the outcome. However, off in Australia, due to the Good Friday, could restrict the pair’s immediate reaction. TD Securities follow the market consensus of upbeat readings: CPI is likely to moderate to 4.7% y/y in March from 5.2% in February. A major contributor to higher inflation over recent months has been food prices, in particular pork due initially to African Swine Flu and then supply constraints. Indeed, Pork prices rose at an annual rate of 135% y/y in Feb. We expect some softening as indicated by lower prices for farm produce. Reduced food supply chain disruptions should also help to ease inflation pressures. Weaker demand will also cap CPI likely leading to a monthly drop in CPI by around -0.9%. How could it affect the AUD/USD? While the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to keep the inflation data under pressure, indicating immediate downside, any upside surprises to the figures will be enough to escalate the pair’s prevailing run-up. Technically, 50-day SMA near 0.6387 becomes the key upside barrier holding the gates for the further rise towards 0.6400. Alternatively, sellers will look for entries below the March-end top surrounding 0.6215. Key NotesAUD/USD: Above 0.6300 on Good Friday holiday with eyes on China CPIAUD/USD Forecast: Rally could continueAbout China CPI The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is a measure of retail price variations within a representative basket of goods and services. The result is a comprehensive summary of the results extracted from the urban consumer price index and rural consumer price index. The purchase power of the CNY is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A substantial consumer price index increase would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, potentially prompting The People’s Bank of China to tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY. About China PPI The Producer Price Index released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China is a measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by producers. It captures the average changes in prices received by Chinese domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). Changes in the PPI are widely considered as an indicator of commodity inflation. If the Producer Price Index increase is excessive, it would indicate that inflation has become a destabilizing factor in the economy, The People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.

US President Donald Trump took on his twitter handle on early Friday morning in Asia. The Republican leader failed to offer any major insights into th

US President Donald Trump took on his twitter handle on early Friday morning in Asia. The Republican leader failed to offer any major insights into the nation’s next move counter coronavirus (COVID-19) but stayed ready to help farmers, cattlemen, ranchers, and producers.Key quotes I have directed @SecretarySonny (House Secretary Sonny Perdue) to expedite help to our farmers, especially to the smaller farmers who are hurting right now. I expect Secretary Purdue to use all of the funds and authorities at his disposal to make sure that our food supply is stable, strong, and safe. We will always be there for our Great Farmers, Cattlemen, Ranchers, and Producers! FX implications Markets seem to like President Trump’s comments as USD/JPY gains 15 basis points to 108.55 after the news.

With the Tokyo open responding to the fresh risks due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), USD/JPY drop to 108.47 amid early Friday. The yen pair previous d

USD/JPY drops at the Tokyo open following news concerning the coronavirus.US CDC extended travel ban to all cruise.Downbeat data from the US, Fed’s action and Chair Powell’s comments weighed the pair earlier.With the Tokyo open responding to the fresh risks due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), USD/JPY drop to 108.47 amid early Friday. The yen pair previous dropped due to the broad US dollar weakness based on downbeat data and pessimistic signals from the Fed Chair. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) took a strong step to control the virus spread during early Asia. The CDC recently modified and extended its earlier version of guidelines to the cruises from no travel to Europe and China to ‘no sail’ order to all cruise ships. In response to this, Tokyo’s index of shares, TOPIX, dropped more than 0.50% to currently down 0.70% to 1,407. On Thursday, US Jobless Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and fears of economic setback, cited by the Fed Chair Powell, weighed on the US Dollar. In doing so, the greenback pairs a little heed to the Fed’s steps to aid the mid-sized businesses out of already agreed $2.3 trillion packages. Although Japanese markets are open for the day, the rest of the major markets, excluding China, are off due to the Good Friday and the same could restrict the liquidity. On the data front, Japan’s latest March month Producer Price Index (PPI) figures dropped below downbeat forecasts, to -0.9% and -0.4% on MoM and YoY respectively. The next moves could be attributed to the US inflation data up for publishing during the later part of the day. Technical analysis Sellers will look for entry below 200-day SMA, currently near 108.30, while targeting the monthly low near 106.90.  

While providing more details of the call between the US, Russian and Saudi Arabian leaders, TASS came out with the news suggesting the leaders’ determ

While providing more details of the call between the US, Russian and Saudi Arabian leaders, TASS came out with the news suggesting the leaders’ determination to coordinate actions on the oil market. Key quotes ‘Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud,’ the Kremlin press service said in a statement. The sides confirmed ‘determination to coordinate actions to stabilize the situation in the global oil trade and minimize the negative impact of volatile oil price quotations to the global economy.’ Market implications With the Good Friday limiting market response to the news, WTI remains under pressure near $23.00 following the news.

Earlier Friday morning in Asia, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modified and extended its earlier version of guidelines to the

Earlier Friday morning in Asia, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modified and extended its earlier version of guidelines to the cruises from no travel to Europe and China to ‘no sail’ order to all cruise ships. The CDC Director Robert Redfield termed the action to stop the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, “We are working with the cruise line industry to address the health and safety of crew at sea as well as communities surrounding U.S. cruise ship points of entry.” “The measures we are taking today to stop the spread of COVID-19 are necessary to protect Americans, and we will continue to provide critical public health guidance to the industry to limit the impacts of COVID-19 on its workforce throughout the remainder of this pandemic,” said Mr. Redfield. FX implications The news weigh on the market’s risk-tone with the Tokyo index and USD/JPY marking fresh declines following the outcome.

WTI pays a little heed to an agreement over the global production cuts, coupled with US President Donald Trump’s comments, while declining to $23.10 a

WTI nears one-week low, fails to cheer upbeat catalysts.OPEC+ agreement, optimistic comments from US President Trump and Baker Hughes Rig Counts couldn’t convince buyers.G20, China CPI in the spotlight, but Good Friday will limit the moves.WTI pays a little heed to an agreement over the global production cuts, coupled with US President Donald Trump’s comments, while declining to $23.10 amid the Asian session on Friday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, mostly known as OPEC+, recently signaled a 10 million per day cuts to global oil productions. A delegate from the cartel mentioned that the OPEC will follow 60% of the proposed cut while allies will offer 40% of the promised figures. Following that, US President Trump also cited a good conversation with Saudi Arabia and Russia while suggesting big news during the long weekend. Also on the positive lines were the Baker Hughes Weekly Oil Rig Counts that marked the fourth straight weekly drop to 504 from 562. The concern for oil traders could be tamed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis as well as a lack of clarity as well as rising inventories in the US. Market players now await China’s March month inflation data for fresh impulse whereas the Good Friday holiday could keep the liquidity in check. Technical analysis Another failure to cross 21-day EMA, currently around $27.00, seems to drag the black gold towards $20.00 psychological magnet.

While extending the previous day’s moves, NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6080 amid the early Asian session on Good Friday. As most markets are closed, inclu

Barring some ticks due to the lack of liquidity, NZD/USD remains mostly quiet.Broad US dollar weakness favors the kiwi pair’s latest up-moves.New Zealand markets are off but China data could offer some moves.While extending the previous day’s moves, NZD/USD seesaws around 0.6080 amid the early Asian session on Good Friday. As most markets are closed, including those in New Zealand, the lack of liquidity is a concern for the pair ahead of China’s monthly inflation data. Even so, broad US dollar weakness helps the buyers to remain hopeful. The quote remains positive for the fifth day in a row as the greenback continues to bear the burden of the coronavirus crisis. Also drowning the US currency could be the downbeat comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell and disappointing data. The US becomes the second highly affected nation due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) with the latest stats putting it near to the unfortunate global leader Italy. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell cited fears of the downbeat economic performance during the second quarter (Q2) of 2020 ahead of witnessing recovery in the second half of the year. On the data front, US Jobless Claims registered another figure above six million and raised doubts on the future unemployment rate figures. Also on the pessimistic side was the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment that dropped to an eight-year low of 71.00 in April, as per the first revision on the initial forecast. Looking forward, China’s March month Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producers Price Index (PPI) will be the key for traders to look for intermediate moves amid the calm hours. Forecasts suggest that the headline CPI may drop from 5.2% to 4.8% on YoY while the MoM figures suggest more weakness to -0.7% versus +0.8% earlier readouts. Further, the PPI might also soften to -1.1% against -0.4% previous mark. Technical analysis A three-week-old rising trend line and 21-day SMA, respectively near 0.5970 and 0.5920, could keep the pair’s short-term declines limited. Meanwhile, a 50-day SMA level of 0.6175 remains on the bulls’ radars as the immediate target during the further advances.  

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.9%, below expectations (-0.7%) in March

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (-0.7%) in March: Actual (0.9%)

Japan Bank Lending (YoY) in line with forecasts (2%) in March

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.9% below forecasts (-0.7%) in March

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (-0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.4%)

USD/JPY recently broke the 10-pips range between 108.40 to 108.50 while rising to 108.56, currently near 108.53, ahead of the Tokyo open during Friday

USD/JPY defies the previous declines amid the less active Good Friday session.Risk-tone searches for direction, broad US dollar weakness played its role at the last.Easter holiday can limit liquidity but Japan open might entertain the Asian traders.USD/JPY recently broke the 10-pips range between 108.40 to 108.50 while rising to 108.56, currently near 108.53, ahead of the Tokyo open during Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holiday limits the pair’s moves as the traders await the Japanese market’s open for fresh impulse. Also contributing to the lack of clarity could be the broad US dollar weakness and mixed risk catalysts. The US dollar earlier weakened across the board as downbeat US Jobless Claims and the worrisome comments from the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell majorly contributed to the greenback’s declines. In doing so, the US currency ignored the Fed’s action comprising favors for the mid-sized businesses. The US Jobless Claims flashed another six million-plus figures and the Fed Chair became the first big central bank leader to openly cite worries some second quarter of 2020. Market’s risk-tone remains mixed with the 10-year treasury yields declining four basis points (bps) to 0.73% whereas Wall Street posting another day of gains by the end of their Thursday moves. Moving on, traders will keep eyes on Japan markets’ open, with March month Producer Price Index (PPI) preceding the opening bell. It should also be noted that most bourses are closed due to the Easter break and hence a lack of liquidity could be witnessed during the day. Technical analysis Unless providing a daily close below 200-day SMA level of 108.35, buyers may remain hopeful to aim for the weekly high surrounding 109.40.  

US President Donald Trump crossed wires after his call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The leader praised talks with the global oil major

US President Donald Trump crossed wires after his call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The leader praised talks with the global oil majors while also suggesting to open massive areas for storage. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies including Russia, mostly known as OPEC+, recently signaled 10 million per day cuts to global oil productions. A delegate from the cartel mentioned that the OPEC will follow 60% of the proposed cut while allies will offer 40% of the promised figures. Key quotes Conversations with Saudi Arabia and Russia on oil was very good. Expect an announcement from them today or tomorrow. We’re energy independent, we can just use our own oil. Will open up massive areas for oil storage. We’ll have big news tomorrow on energy and airlines We are working with Congress to protect small business owners affected by coronavirus. Market reaction Despite sluggish markets due to the Good Friday holiday, oil prices inched up nearly 10 cents following the news. The WTI benchmark currently trades near $23.00 amid the early Friday morning in Asia.

Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s A

Gold nears the monthly high flashed the previous day.Tops marked during late-February, early-March and short-term resistance line guard immediate upside.Sellers will look for entry below the weekly low.Despite probing the multi-year high, marked on Thursday, Gold prices near the key resistances while taking rounds to $1,685 at the start of Friday’s Asian session. The Good Friday holidays in major markets are expected to limit the yellow metal’s moves. Among the important upside barriers, an area including highs marked during late-February and early-March, around $1,690/93, will be the first one to challenge the bulls. If buyers manage to take clues from the bullish MACD and cross $1,693, an upward sloping trend line from March 13, currently at $1,700, will be crucial to watch as it holds the gate for the bullion’s further rise to the March month top around $1,703. On the downside, the weekly low surrounding $1,641 acts as the immediate support ahead of $1,600 and 21-day SMA close to $1,591. In a case where the bears sneak in below $1,591, the monthly bottom around $1,568.50/40 could lure the sellers. Gold daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

AUD/USD remains above 0.6300, despite stepping back from the monthly high of 0.6363 to currently around 0.6330, at the start of Friday’s Asian session

AUD/USD consolidates from the recently flashed four-week high.Broad US dollar weakness, amid Fed’s action and downbeat data/comments, helped the Aussie.Markets in Australia/US are closed for Good Friday, Chinese markets are up with March month inflation data on the cards.AUD/USD remains above 0.6300, despite stepping back from the monthly high of 0.6363 to currently around 0.6330, at the start of Friday’s Asian session. While the broad US dollar weakness could be considered as the reason for the pair’s earlier upside moves, the latest pullback could be attributed to the fears of the coronavirus. Fed’s Powell and Jobless Claims managed to harm the greenback… Downbeat comments from the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and another six million-plus figures of the weekly Jobless Claims were enough for the markets to pay a little heed to the Fed’s surprise action. The Fed Chair Powell could be the first central banker among the top-tier ones to suggest that the US economy is moving towards very high unemployment. The fact got support from the latest weekly Jobless Claims that crossed 5,250K forecast with 6,606K while upwardly revising the previous to 6,867K from initially report figures of 6,648K. The Federal Reserve (Fed) surprised markets with additional actions to help the mid-sized business while using the already announced $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. Amid all this, the US dollar continued to bear the burden of the coronavirus crisis and downbeat data while marking across the board losses. The same helped the Aussie to forget the early-day losses based on downbeat data at home and worries spread by the RBA’s bi-annual Financial Stability Review (FSR) report. Even so, the market’s risk-tone flashed mixed results as the US 10-year treasury yields closed the day on the negative side to 0.73% whereas Wall Street flashed another daily positive closing with DJI30 at monthly high. Given the absence of the Aussie traders, due to the Easter break, the pair may witness a lack of liquidity ahead of Japan and China open. However, the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be the key to watch as it comprises the month of the coronavirus crisis. The headline CPI is expected to soften from 5.2% to 4.8% on YoY while the MoM figures suggest more weakness to -0.7% versus +0.8% earlier readouts. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) could also drop to -1.1% against -0.4% previous mark. Technical analysis 50-day SMA near 0.6387 becomes the key upside barrier holding the gates for the further rise towards 0.6400. Alternatively, sellers will look for entries below the March-end top surrounding 0.6215.  

With the Fed’s surprise announcement of aids for mid-sized businesses surprising markets, over the already anticipated higher figures of the US Jobles

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by about 285 points, or 1.22%, at 23,719.The S&P 500 index ended up 1.45% at 2,790.The Nasdaq Composite Index closed 0.77% better-off to 8,154. With the Fed’s surprise announcement of aids for mid-sized businesses surprising markets, over the already anticipated higher figures of the US Jobless Claims, the US equity benchmarks managed to post another positive closing before the long weekend including the Good Friday. Also affecting the market’s mood were comments from the Fed Chair Jerome Powell who cited fears of a slowdown in the first quarter while also expecting a recovery in the second half. That said, the US equity benchmarks preferred cheering the upbeat news suggesting additional stimulus while paying a little heed to the negatives that are in fashion ever since the coronavirus (COVID-19) has taken the driver’s seat. Consequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher by about 285 points, or 1.22%, at 23,719, the S&P 500 index ended up 1.45% at 2,790 and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed 0.77% better-off to 8,154. Other than the US catalysts, the much-awaited meeting of the global oil producers, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia, mostly known as OPEC+, also offered wild moves to the markets, especially to oil. The initial talks of an agreement on 20 million barrels per day of reduction in the output got defied with 10 million barrels per day of production cuts for two months starting from May. As a result, the black gold failed to hold onto the early-day gains while settling around $23.00 at the end of Thursday’s close. Furthermore, the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment dropped to the eight-year low of 71 whereas Jobless Claims crossed 5,250K forecast with 6,606K while upwardly revising the previous to 6,867K from initially report figures of 6,648K. Amid all these, there was a ray of hope as the UK PM Johnson moves out of the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and helped markets to take a sigh of relief before the Easter break. While also portraying the market sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yields dropped four basis points to 0.729% by the end of Thursday. Although most markets are close for Friday, the US is up for releasing March month inflation data that might have a wild reaction amid a lack of liquidity.  
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