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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 90% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Increasing buying pressure around the British Pound is forcing EUR/GBP to slip back to the area of daily lows in the 0.8550/40 band. EUR/GBP focused

The better tone in the Sterling drags the cross lower.House of Commons will vote tonight on three amendments.MPs will now take control of the Brexit process.Increasing buying pressure around the British Pound is forcing EUR/GBP to slip back to the area of daily lows in the 0.8550/40 band.EUR/GBP focused on upcoming votesThe European cross remains under pressure so far this week amidst rising volatility around the Sterling and upcoming crucial hours in the Brexit negotiations. In fact, after last night’s vote, MPs will now take control over the Brexit process, undermining further PM May’s competence as a leading voice and at the same time casting doubts over the continuation of Mrs. May at Number 10. House Speaker J.Bercow selected amendments put forward by J.Corbyn, O.Letwin and M.Beckett to vote tonight at the House of Commons (22GMT). It worth mentioning that a third meaningful vote has been postponed without a date after May’s plan lack of sufficient support.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is retreating 0.13% at 0.8557 and faces immediate contention at 0.8471 (2019 low Mar.13) seconded by 0.8402 (monthly low Feb.22 2017) and then 0.8382 (monthly low May 10 2017). On the upside, a breakout of 0.8698 (55-day SMA) would aim for 0.8722 (high Mar.22) and finally 0.8838 (200-day SMA).

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, notes that on Monday evening, British MPs voted to take control of the Brexit process and allow time

James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, notes that on Monday evening, British MPs voted to take control of the Brexit process and allow time for indicative votes on alternative paths, which follows another bumpy few days in Westminster, where PM Theresa May has struggled to get the support she needs to get her Brexit deal through parliament.Key Quotes“The indicative votes process will kick-off tomorrow afternoon, and the big question is whether any single option can command a majority among lawmakers.  There is no preset list of options, and instead, lawmakers will be able to put forward their preferred choices, and the speaker of the House of Commons will select the most popular. Out of all the alternative paths, we suspect a permanent customs union is still most likely to emerge as the preferred option.” “The bigger question is whether PM May has the political capital to change course. Theresa May has been highly reluctant to seek cross-party consensus on Brexit, amid fears that this could split the Conservative party. If parliament opts to take Brexit in a 'softer' direction, then many Conservative Eurosceptic ministers and backbench MPs may be prepared to vote against the government in another no-confidence vote. Some commentators have also suggested that PM May herself may view an election as preferable if MPs back a second referendum or another unpalatable alternative.” “One way or another, the next two weeks are going to be a 'tug of war' between the government and parliament.”  

According to analysts at TD Securities, US housing starts are expected to have given back some of the strength behind January's 18.6% m/m pop, with th

According to analysts at TD Securities, US housing starts are expected to have given back some of the strength behind January's 18.6% m/m pop, with the market projecting a 0.9% m/m decline for February.Key Quotes“Single-family housing starts were the main driver of the increase following several months with consecutive declines.” “Moreover, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey is expected to show a decline in March following two increases to start the year, while the Conference Board's consumer confidence index is projected to continue to build on its recent rebound after the sour end to the year.”

After staying relatively calm and closing the day a few pips above the 110 mark on Monday, the USD/JPY turned north today and started to erase last we

10-year US T-bond yield stages a decisive recovery.US Dollar Index stays near 96.50.Coming up: Building permits, housing starts, and consumer confidence data from the U.S.After staying relatively calm and closing the day a few pips above the 110 mark on Monday, the USD/JPY turned north today and started to erase last week's losses. As of writing, the pair was up 0.4% on a daily basis at 110.40. The sharp drop that started in the second half of the previous week in the US Treasury bond yields continued on Monday to help the safe-haven JPY stay resilient against its peers. However, with the 10-year reference rising more than 1% on Tuesday, the positively-correlated pair gained traction. Moreover, modest gains seen in the major European equity indexes supported the pair's action. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures is adding 0.5% on the day, reflecting the improved market sentiment and suggesting that all Street is likely to start the day in the positive territory. On the other hand, ahead of the housing market and consumer confidence data from the U.S., the US Dollar Index stays stuck in its consolidation channel near 96.50, letting the market's risk perception remain as the primary catalyst. Earlier today, the BoJ in its Summary of Opinions report reiterated that the bank will take policy action pre-emptively if economic & price developments were to change.Key technical levelsThe pair could face the initial resistance at 110.65 (50-DMA) ahead of 111.10 (20-DMA) and 111.50 (200-DMA). On the downside, supports are located at 110 (psychological level/daily low), 109.70 (Mar. 25 low) and 109.40 (Jan. 27 low).

In an ITV interview on Tuesday, the Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lawmaker Sammy Wilson said that “confidence and supply arrangem

In an ITV interview on Tuesday, the Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lawmaker Sammy Wilson said that “confidence and supply arrangement does not oblige DU to sign up to Brexit deal ‘death warrant’.” Wilson noted that they feel under “less pressure” to support PM’s deal now that the Parliament is doing its own thing. “Happy just to let Brexit spiral into No Deal. Not sure the optics of this are quite as simple as PM might hope,” he added.

The bulls regained control in the European session, now driving WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) to the highest levels so far this week above the 59.50 barr

Oil sees a relief rally in tandem with global stocks while tightening supplies underpin.Global growth concerns could limit the upside, as focus shifts to the US API crude stockpiles data. The bulls regained control in the European session, now driving WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) to the highest levels so far this week above the 59.50 barrier, as all eyes remain on the 60 psychological mark heading towards the API weekly fuel stocks report due later today at 2030 GMT. The sentiment around black gold remains underpinned by increased expectations of tighter global supplies in the first quarter of this year, with the OPEC supply cuts likely to get deeper and the US sanctions Iran and Venezuela already posing supply risks. However, the key driver behind the latest leg higher in WTI can be attributed to the increased demand for the risk assets such as the equities, Treasury yields, oil etc., as markets cheer upbeat development on the US-China trade negotiations. Sources: China said to plan more US pork imports amid trade talks - BloombergLooking ahead, looming US recession fears will continue to have a negative bearing on the oil markets that could be offset by a potential draw in the US weekly crude inventories due to be published by the API later in the NA session.WTI Technical Levels 

The Swedish Krona is prolonging the auspicious start of the week and is dragging EUR/SEK to fresh daily lows in the 10.44 area. EUR/SEK offered on da

The cross moves lower to the 10.44 region on Tuesday.The Riksbank published its Business Survey.Sweden Producer Prices rose 0.2% MoM in February.The Swedish Krona is prolonging the auspicious start of the week and is dragging EUR/SEK to fresh daily lows in the 10.44 area.EUR/SEK offered on data, RiksbankThe cross is retreating for the second session in a row today, as the Swedish Krona continues to trim part of the losses recorded in the second half of last week. SEK has picked up extra pace today after Producer Prices in the Scandinavian economy rose at a monthly 0.2% during February and 6.3% from a year earlier. In addition, the Riksbank published its latest Business Survey. In the survey, major Swedish companies see no signs of an imminent downturn, although they appear less optimistic regarding the future of the economic activity. In addition, the better tone in the exports sector continues to be bolstered by a relatively weak SEK and expansion in European and North American markets. In the data space, Consumer and Manufacturing Confidence are due tomorrow along with Trade Balance figures and Household Lending Growth. Furthermore, Retail Sales will close the docket on Thursday.What to look for around SEKFundamentals in the Nordic economy remain solid for the time being despite some deterioration in the domestic outlook and speculations that the Riksbank could stay ‘lower for longer’. However, the Scandinavian central bank did not ruled out a rate hike by year-end (yet). SEK is also facing extra headwinds as market participants consider it a funding currency when comes to carry trade.EUR/SEK levels to considerAs of writing the cross is losing 0.10% at 10.4396 and a break below 10.4296 (55-day SMA) would expose 10.4076 (low Mar.21) and then 10.3730 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, the next up barrier aligns at 10.4969 (high Mar.22) seconded by 10.5064 (21-day SMA) and finally 10.6476 (2019 high Mar.8).

Latest comments are crossing the wires from the UK Conservative and Member of Parliament for North East Somerset. Jacob Rees-Mogg, via Twitter, as he

Latest comments are crossing the wires from the UK Conservative and Member of Parliament for North East Somerset. Jacob Rees-Mogg, via Twitter, as he officially supports the UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Rees-Mogg tweeted: “Deal-or-No-Brexit “becomes the choice eventually…May’s deal is better than not leaving at all”.

   •  Builds on the overnight goodish up-move and climbs further beyond the 0.7100 handle.    •  The USD bulls seemed rather unimpressed by a goodish

   •  Builds on the overnight goodish up-move and climbs further beyond the 0.7100 handle.
   •  The USD bulls seemed rather unimpressed by a goodish rebound in the US bond yields.
   •  Uncertainty over US-China trade talks capping gains ahead of the US economic releases.
The AUD/USD pair held on to its mildly positive tone through the early European session and is currently place at the top end of its daily trading range, around the 0.7125-30 region. The pair built on the overnight goodish up-move back above the 0.7100 handle and continued gaining positive traction for the second consecutive session on Tuesday following some upbeat comments by the RBA Assistant Governor Luci Ellis, who praised the strength of the domestic labor market. This coupled with a subdued US Dollar price action, albeit now seemed to have found some interest from a goodish rebound in the US Treasury bond yields, provided an additional boost and remained supportive of the pair's intraday uptick to a multi-day high level of 0.7131.  However, fresh concerns over lower US economic growth, sparked by inversion of the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields for the first time since 2007, coupled with uncertainties over the US-China trade negotiations kept a lid on any strong follow-through up-move for the perceived riskier/China-proxy Australian Dollar. Next on tap will be the US economic docket, featuring the release of housing market data - housing starts and building permits, which followed by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

The UK High Street banks, representing around two-thirds of British mortgages, reported a drop sharp drop to 35,300 mortgages against above 40,000 exp

The UK High Street banks, representing around two-thirds of British mortgages, reported a drop sharp drop to 35,300 mortgages against above 40,000 expected. The figure for January was revised down from 40,630 to 39,560.  The figure, known also as the BBA Mortgage Approvals, leads the official government data. They also reported that consumer credit growth slowed the most meager level since October, with 3.8%. In addition, the headline is weakest in nearly six years: the worst since April 2013. GBP/USD responded with a drop below 1.3170. The British Pound has mostly moved to the tune of Brexit headlines, but the significant miss, even though it is coming from a second-tier figure.  

According to Bloomberg, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) reportedly said that they plan to hold the ne

According to Bloomberg, the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) reportedly said that they plan to hold the next Joint OPEC-non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on May, 19th.  Nothing further is reported on the same.

United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals down to 35.299K in February from previous 40.634K

According to Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, bond yields have fallen abruptly further in the last week and appear to be flashing

According to Greg Gibbs, analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, bond yields have fallen abruptly further in the last week and appear to be flashing warnings over the state of the global economy.Key Quotes“Lower yields to some extent reflect a shift in policy guidance by the Fed and several other central banks over recent months, and the Fed’s announcement that it is slowing and ending its quantitative tightening.” “At some point the divergence between falling yields, and rising equities and commodities is incongruous. Lower yields indicate an increased risk of falling global growth and inflation while rising equity and commodity prices indicate rising confidence in the global economy.” “Economic reports this week, including weak Asian export growth and weak major economy PMI export components in March, are a reason for the market to become more anxious over the outlook for global economic growth.” “Economic reports suggest that there is little sign of a quick recovery developing, and progress on trade negotiations and Brexit have slowed. It is still possible that later in the year, we do see economic reports and market confidence recover; especially if the US and China announce a trade agreement and unwind tariffs, but the market is beginning to fret that ongoing weakness in economic data reveal deeper problems and any recovery will be muted and slow to develop.” “The market has been waiting for a stabilisation in the European economic slowdown for over a year, and yet it has only deepened. Its willingness to keep projecting a recovery appears to be fading.”

The German Conservative Party lawmaker Norbert Roettgen took to Twitter to applaud the UK parliament’s decision to vote on a range of Brexit options o

The German Conservative Party lawmaker Norbert Roettgen took to Twitter to applaud the UK parliament’s decision to vote on a range of Brexit options on Wednesday. Roettgen said: “Finally MPs are taking control of #Brexit.” “Short extension therefore almost certainly off the table. This is good news!”

Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the discussions, as saying that China plans to buy about 300,000 tons of pork from the US this year as part of i

Bloomberg quotes people familiar with the discussions, as saying that China plans to buy about 300,000 tons of pork from the US this year as part of its commitment to ramp up the US agricultural purchases amid ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries. The fresh headlines, citing some progress on the US-China trade front could offer extra legs to the ongoing Aussie bounce that could drive the rates closer to the 0.7150 barrier.  

   •  Barring an intraday spike on Monday, the pair has been struggling to make it through 200-hour SMA and remained confined in a broader trading ran

   •  Barring an intraday spike on Monday, the pair has been struggling to make it through 200-hour SMA and remained confined in a broader trading range around the 1.3200 handle.   •  The range-bound price action over the past 24-hours or so constituted to the formation of a rectangle on the 1-hourly chart, indicating a brief pause in the trend - bullish in this case.   •  Usually considered as a continuation pattern, a rectangle can also mark trend significant tops and thus, warrant caution amid neutral technical indicators on hourly/daily charts.   •  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained break through the mentioned trading range before traders start positioning for the pair's next leg of a directional move.GBP/USD 1-hourly chart 

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that for the Norwegian economy, retail sales on the weak side, but unemployment on the strong

Erik Johannes Bruce, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that for the Norwegian economy, retail sales on the weak side, but unemployment on the strong side will send mixed signals, but the Norges Bank will probably give most weight to sign of further labor market tightening.Key Quotes“One main takeaway from Norges Bank’s surprise lift of the rate path last week is that the Norwegian central bank is more “data dependent” than we had expected.” “This week’s two most important key figures, March registered unemployment and February retail sales, will probably point in opposite directions. They are both out on Friday.” “We expect a sharp drop in retail sales (-1.7% m/m) in February mainly because prices on goods, in contrast to the normal pattern, rose sharply this month (retail sales are in volume).” “We were somewhat surprised to see Norges Bank’s new forecast for a rather flat development in registered unemployment in the next months given its upward revision to growth in employment. We forecast a drop in unemployment by between 500- 1000 persons s.a. in March. That is somewhat less than the trend, but stronger than Norges Bank’s forecast. Registered unemployment is Norges Bank’s preferred measure for unemployment and essential for its view on the output gap and hence rates. We will give a figure for unemployment on the strong side more weight than a month with weak retail sales.”

Analysts at the US investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, maintains their bets on the Brexit outcomes after the UK Parliament voted to take over con

Analysts at the US investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, maintains their bets on the Brexit outcomes after the UK Parliament voted to take over control of the Brexit process for a day. Adrian Paul, European economist at Goldman Sachs noted: “Skeptical the “indicative votes” planned for Wednesday would prove conclusive, may pave the way for a softer Brexit. “Many of the options most likely to succeed point towards a “softer Brexit” than currently envisaged by the Prime Minister.” Further Details:“Goldman sees a 15 percent chance that the UK leaves the EU without a deal, a 35 percent chance that the UK’s decision to leave the EU is overturned, and a 50 percent chance that lawmakers eventually coalesce around a close variant of the current EU withdrawal agreement.”

Bloomberg reports the latest comments delivered by the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn, with the key headlines found be

Bloomberg reports the latest comments delivered by the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn, with the key headlines found below. Eurozone slowdown seems more durable than just the short-term. Domestic demand will help avoid a recession. Negative rates shouldn't become the new normal. ECB to decide on TLTRO details well before September start date. Regional banks can expect details by June. ECB doesn't want to raise rates prematurely amid risks.

   •  The US bond yields rebound from 15-month lows and lend some support to the USD.    •  A strong pickup in crude oil prices underpin Loonie and ke

   •  The US bond yields rebound from 15-month lows and lend some support to the USD.
   •  A strong pickup in crude oil prices underpin Loonie and kept a lid on any strong up-move.
The USD/CAD pair lacked any firm intraday directional bias and is currently placed in the neutral territory, around the 1.3400 handle. The pair stalled its overnight retracement slide from two-week tops and managed to find some support near the 1.3385, albeit a combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus and led to a subdued/range-bound price action through the early European session on Tuesday. A goodish rebound in the US Treasury bond yields from 15-month lows provided a minor lift to the US Dollar and extended some support to the major. The positive factor was largely offset by a strong pickup in crude oil prices, now up over 1.0%, which underpinned demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and kept a lid on any meaningful up-move. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a convincing move in either direction before traders start positioning for any meaningful intraday momentum. Later during the early North-American session, the US economic docket, featuring the housing market data and followed by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus.Technical levels to watch 

According to analysts at TD Securities, gold complex received a big boost from a convincing drop in rates across the yield curve, after the US Fed dro

According to analysts at TD Securities, gold complex received a big boost from a convincing drop in rates across the yield curve, after the US Fed dropped the median dot to levels which signaled to the market that the central bank will not hike rates further this year, while also moderating its balance sheet reduction.Key Quotes“Despite the fact that the dots are pointing to one more interest rate increase in 2020, many observers now believe that the next move on the US policy rate front will be a cut. The greenback, which is a key gold driver, initially dropped sharply on the news before recovering somewhat after disappointing PMI numbers from both Germany and France, which provided some renewed support for the dollar, as it looked the best among a weak bunch.” “This likely was the key reason why gold did not meaningfully follow through higher. Given that the market is increasingly pricing in a US rate cut this year, the US dollar is on a weak footing and considering that equities are generally more worried about growth, gold could well move into a higher trading range sooner than expected. Indeed, we suspect that current prices will prompt aggressive CTA buying along with additional spec length.”

EUR/SD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1309 Today Daily Change 20 Today Daily Ch

EUR/USD remains sidelined in the 1.1300 neighbourhood following last week’s drop to the 1.1280/70 band.The pair came under downside pressure after last week’s up move failed to convince market participants above the key barrier at 1.1400 the figure, coincident with the 5-month resistance line.Furthermore, the negative stance on the pair is expected to prevail as long as this resistance line caps the upside, today at 1.1406.EUR/SD daily chart  

Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.8% to 0.2% in February

Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY): 6.3% (February) vs 5.6%

Philadelphia Fed president, Patrick Harker, during a scheduled speech in Frankfurt this Tuesday, said that I was not supportive of the December rate h

Philadelphia Fed president, Patrick Harker, during a scheduled speech in Frankfurt this Tuesday, said that I was not supportive of the December rate hike.Key quotes:   •  My dot plots projection didn't come down that much.
   •  But had ticked down growth rate forecast a little bit. 
   •  There was a general consensus to shorten the maturity of the balance sheet.
   •  So there would be room for a future twist if need.
   •  My forecast shows inflation coming up to 2.1-2.2% in 2019.

Standard Chartered analysis team suggest that China’s falling producer price index (PPI) has caught the market’s attention as PPI inflation fell to 0.

Standard Chartered analysis team suggest that China’s falling producer price index (PPI) has caught the market’s attention as PPI inflation fell to 0.1% y/y in February 2019, on the verge of sliding into negative territory, after peaking at 6.9% y/y in September 2017.Key Quotes“As PPI inflation falls, industrial profit growth is also slowing. The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC’s) Q1 survey on 5,000 large industrial companies suggests that corporate confidence is weakening y/y and destocking pressure is building. Moreover, if falling PPI inflation drives a further slowdown in China’s nominal GDP growth (which slowed to 9.1% in Q4-2018 from 10.7% in Q4-2017), the PBoC is likely to face increased pressure to ease monetary policy and cut interest rates.” “We expect moderate PPI deflation of 1% in 2019, recovering to inflation of 0.5% in 2020 (versus 3.5% in 2018). Negative base effects are likely to keep headline PPI in moderate deflation for most of 2019. We expect y/y PPI to bottom out at c.-2% in September, recovering to positive figures in early 2020.”

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading without a clear direction on Tuesday, always around the 95.50/60 area. US Dollar

The index exchanges gains with losses in the mid-96.00s.Yields of the US 10-year note rebound to 2.44%.US housing sector data, Consumer Confidence in the limelight.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is trading without a clear direction on Tuesday, always around the 95.50/60 area.US Dollar Index looks to dataThe index is now alternating gains with losses in the mid-96.00s against the backdrop of a broad-based lack of direction in the global markets. The rebound from recent 6-week lows in the vicinity of the 95.80/70 band appears to have met strong resistance around 96.80, later sparking the ongoing consolidation while investors continue to look to Brexit developments and US-China trade talks as the main drivers for the risk trends. Moving forward, Housing Starts and Building Permits for the month of February are due next along with house prices measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence gauge for the current month.What to look for around USDThe greenback stays under the microscope for the time being while market participants continue to adjust to the prospects of no hikes from the Fed this year and just one rate raise in 2020. Further attention falls on the inversion of the US yield curve, which is seen as a prologue for a probable recession in a year’s time-ish. On the supportive side, the buck could gather some traction in case of souring risk appetite and widening rate differentials vs. its peers. From the political view, the debt ceiling, the border-wall funding and upcoming elections next year carry the potential to spark bouts of extra volatility around USD.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.06% at 96.58 and a breakout of 96.81 (high Mar.22) would expose 97.37 (high Feb.15) and finally 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7). On the other hand, the immediate support lines up at 95.74 (low Mar.20) followed by 95.16 (low Jan.31) and then 95.03 (2019 low Jan.10).

   •  The cross extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained well within the striking distance of near two-week lows, forming a recta

   •  The cross extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained well within the striking distance of near two-week lows, forming a rectangular chart pattern on hourly charts.   •  Given last week's break below 2-1/2-month-old ascending trend-line support, the rectangle might still be categorized as a continuation pattern and marks a pause in the recent bearish trend.   •  Meanwhile, technical indicators on 4-hourly/daily charts maintained their mildly bearish bias and support prospects for further near-term depreciating move amid renewed Brexit jitters.   •  A convincing break below 50-day SMA support near mid-144.00s will reinforce the bearish outlook and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the downfall towards 143.75-70 support zone.GBP/JPY 4-hourly chart 

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, for the UK economy, Brexit is back again after being at the top of the agenda after a brief interlude as the g

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, for the UK economy, Brexit is back again after being at the top of the agenda after a brief interlude as the government lost another vote in the House of Commons last night (329-302), with three ministers breaking ranks and resigning to support the amendment.Key Quotes“MPs supported the measure put forward by the Conservative backbencher, Sir Oliver Letwin, which allows MPs to take control of the parliamentary timetable away from the government tomorrow, thus allowing Parliament to hold a series of ‘indicative votes, where MPs could vote on a range of Brexit options.” “After the vote, the government released a statement criticizing the “dangerous, unpredictable precedent” set by the vote, but nevertheless pledged to work with parliament to achieve a reasonable outcome. The statement called for “realism” moving forward and, in her comments to parliament, May referenced a second referendum or an election as potential options. Uncertainty looks set to continue.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that they will continue to favour the topside for the GBP/USD pair after it recovered from the 55 day ma

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that they will continue to favour the topside for the GBP/USD pair after it recovered from the 55 day ma as it has held over the 200 day ma at 1.2980.Key Quotes“The market recently challenged the 1.3363 July 2018 high, reaching 1.3382 before failing. Provided that dips lower are contained by the 200 day ma, our overall target remains the 1.3563 200 week ma.” “Below the 200 day ma lies the double Fibo retracement at 1.2900/1.2895. This guards the recent low at 1.2772.”

France Business Climate below expectations (103) in March: Actual (102)

   •  Improving risk-sentiment undermines JPY’s safe-haven and helped regain traction.    •  The USD remains depressed and fails to provide any meanin

   •  Improving risk-sentiment undermines JPY’s safe-haven and helped regain traction.
   •  The USD remains depressed and fails to provide any meaningful bullish impetus.
   •  Traders now eye US economic data for some short-term trading opportunities.
The USD/JPY pair regained some positive traction on Tuesday, albeit continued with its struggle to build on the momentum further beyond the 110.25 region. After yesterday's good two-way price moves within a broader trading range around the key 110.00 psychological mark, a combination of supporting factors helped the pair to catch some fresh bids during the Asian session and recover further from six-week lows.  A slight improvement in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by a positive trading mood across equity markets, dented the Japanese Yen's relative safe-haven status, which coupled with a follow-through uptick in the US Treasury bond yields remained supportive. However, fresh concerns over lower US economic growth, sparked by inversion of the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields for the first time since 2007, kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and turned out to be the only factor keeping a lid on any further up-move. As Omkar Godbole, FXStreet's own Analyst and Editor writes: “The spread between the US and Japanese two-year government bond yields has narrowed in the USD-negative manner to 244 basis points, the lowest level since April 2018. The benchmark yield spread has also narrowed to 250 basis points.” Moving ahead, today's US economic docket, featuring the housing market data - housing starts & building permits, followed by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical outlook“Both the 8-hour and daily charts are biased toward the bears. Therefore, the diamond pattern seen in the chart could be breached to the downside. That will likely end up accelerating the preceding bearish move toward 109.50,” Omkar added further.

Former UK Business Minister Harrington is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the Brexit way forward. Key Headlines: The main aim

Former UK Business Minister Harrington is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the Brexit way forward.Key Headlines:The main aim of resignation was to try to stop no deal Brexit. Brexit options should be whittled down through parliament votes. PM will look at the will of parliament and go to Brussels with solution parliament suggests. Before revoking Article 50 there should be another referendum. There is no overwhelming majority for any single Brexit option. Hopes that May won't resign.

The Daily Mail reports the latest comments by the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MP Jim Shannon, as he says that “today the backstop m

The Daily Mail reports the latest comments by the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MP Jim Shannon, as he says that “today the backstop must ‘change, be removed or disappear’ or the DUP won’t back the deal.”

UK health minister - Matt Hancock was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that May's deal is still the way forward and the Parliament will

UK health minister - Matt Hancock was out with some comments in the last hour, saying that May's deal is still the way forward and the Parliament will not let no-deal Brexit happen.Additional quotes:   •  So May's deal is the best option for those who wanted a no-deal outcome.
   •  Says that May still has control of the Tory party.
   •  Changing the party leader would not change Brexit arithmetic in Parliament.

Kozo Yamamoto, Japanese senior ruling party lawmaker with close ties to PM Shinzo Abe and one of the architects of the premier’s stimulus policies, wa

Kozo Yamamoto, Japanese senior ruling party lawmaker with close ties to PM Shinzo Abe and one of the architects of the premier’s stimulus policies, was reported by Reuters as saying that the government will likely proceed with a scheduled sales tax hike in October.Key Quotes:“It was a mistake,” Yamamoto said of the BOJ’s decision in 2016 to change its policy target to interest rates instead of the pace of money printing, adding that rate cuts are not as effective a tool as large-scale asset purchases. “The BOJ ought to buy government bonds more aggressively,” but doing so would be difficult under the current framework. “The prime minister told me while I may be theoretically right, it was politically difficult” to put off the hike. “The government should increase spending if the tax hike hurts the economy too much.”

The cautious tone prevails around the European currency during the first half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1300 region amidst a generalized co

Spot struggles for direction around the 1.1300 handle.The greenback appears bid near the 96.60 region.German GfK Consumer Climate came in at 10.4 in April.The cautious tone prevails around the European currency during the first half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1300 region amidst a generalized consolidative theme in the global markets.EUR/USD looks to risk trends, BrexitThe pair is looking to add to Monday’s gains in the 1.1300 neighbourhood, although a fresh catalyst remains absent following the recent drop to the 1.1270 region in response to poor PMIs in core Euroland. In addition, the improved sentiment around the greenback in the last couple of sessions has been capping any serious bull run in spot, forcing it to gyrate around 1.1300 the figure for the time being. Further out, Brexit developments are expected to dictate the sentiment in the broad risk appetite trends. In this regard, UK MPs will now take control of the Brexit process, while parliamentary support for a third meaningful vote appears insufficient. In the data space, Consumer Climate tracked by GfK deflated to 10.4 for the month of April. Publications across the ocean include the S&P/Case-Shiller index, Housing Starts, Building Permits and March’s Consumer Confidence.What to look for around EURMarket participants have left behind the recent and renewed dovish stance from the ECB, focusing instead on the broad risk-appetite trends, USD-dynamics and domestic data. Regarding the latter, and looking to the broader picture, the view of a slowdown in the bloc has been ‘confirmed’ last week following disappointing advanced PMIs in core Euroland. This, in turn, should add to the idea of a ‘patient for longer’ stance from the ECB. On the political front, headwinds are expected to emerge in light of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections, where the focus of attention will be on the potential increase of the populist option among voters.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.02% at 1.1309 and faces initial support at 1.1273 (low Mar.22) seconded by 1.1234 (low Feb.15) and finally 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12). On the upside, a break above 1.1357 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1363 (100-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (high Mar.20).

Danske bank analyst point out that the UK PM Theresa May was forced to abandon plans to hold a third 'meaningful vote' yesterday, after members of par

Danske bank analyst point out that the UK PM Theresa May was forced to abandon plans to hold a third 'meaningful vote' yesterday, after members of parliament voted in favour of taking control over the Brexit process by demanding a series of indicative votes on a way forward taking place on Wednesday.Key Quotes“While this is another sign that May is Prime Minister in name only, it may actually help getting her deal over the finish line, as some of the Brexiteers, who have made life very difficult for her, seem afraid of losing control of Brexit, as it increases the likelihood of a softer Brexit (customs union or Norway-style single market participation) or a long extension.” “Still, May will likely need to get more Labour MPs on board to get her deal through parliament. The indicative votes will not be legally binding and hence we do not know how the EU will respond. As the issue in the UK parliament is still that there is no majority for anything, it remains to be seen whether this is the start towards a compromise in a softer Brexit direction. Our base case remains a long extension but the development on Wednesday is crucial near term. We cannot rule out Theresa May resigning or a general election at this point.”

Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that the Turkish lira is yet again in trouble as it plummeted around 5% intra-day against the USD l

Morten Lund, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that the Turkish lira is yet again in trouble as it plummeted around 5% intra-day against the USD last Friday, reminding investors of just how fragile the currency still is after last year’s bloodbath.Key Quotes“The crash was in our view to a large extent driven by comments from President Erdogan, who slammed FX analysts for “misleading predictions” on foreign exchange rates, which in turn spread fear amongst market participants that Erdogan could once again direct his focus towards the TRY and the central bank’s doing.” “If, however, President Erdogan is right and FX analysts really are the drivers behind the TRY’s sluggish performance, then we are guilty as well and have been so for a while.” “In sum, we do not see many TRY-positive arguments in the current environment – neither from a domestic nor an external perspective. We expect the Turkish economy to keep struggling in the coming quarters and with unusually elevated uncertainty about the inflation outlook, we see a high risk that the CBRT may move too early. Therefore, we keep our negative view on the TRY in both the short and long run, with a decent risk probability of the TRY weakening more than forward.”

Denmark Retail Sales (YoY): 1.2% (February) vs 0.1%

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey below forecasts (10.8) in April: Actual (10.4)

According to analysts at TD Securities, the RBNZ OCR Review is widely expected to make the smallest ripple possible tomorrow. Key Quotes “The recent

According to analysts at TD Securities, the RBNZ OCR Review is widely expected to make the smallest ripple possible tomorrow.Key Quotes“The recent Dec quarter GDP report revealed that domestic demand was strong (consumption and investment, public and private) while trade was thought to be neutral for growth, but in the end added another +0.6%pts.” “With inflation expectations anchored just above 2% and maximum sustainable employment achieved, there are no triggers for the RBNZ to change its February stance where the next cash rate move “could be up or down”, and that the cash rates is likely to stay “unchanged through 2019 and 2020”. There are no updated forecasts, no OCR forward guidance nor press conference, these are scheduled for 8 May.”

   •  Improving risk-sentiment prompts some profit-taking during the Asian session.    •  Subdued USD price action lends some support and might help l

   •  Improving risk-sentiment prompts some profit-taking during the Asian session.
   •  Subdued USD price action lends some support and might help limit the downside.
Gold witnessed some profit-taking move on Tuesday and eroded a part of the previous session's strong up-move to near one-month tops. The overnight uptick was supported by an inversion of the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields for the first time since 2007, which sparked fears of a potential US recession and underpinned the precious metal's relative safe-haven demand.  Bulls, however, failed to capitalize on the positive momentum, rather opted to take some profits off the table during the Asian session amid some initial signs of stability in the global financial markets and recovery in other riskier assets - like equities. Meanwhile, a subdued US Dollar price action extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity. This coupled with the ongoing Brexit drama and uncertainties over the US-China trade negotiations might further collaborate towards limiting any sharp corrective slide.  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through selling before confirming that the commodity might have topped out in the near-term and traders start positioning for any further near-term depreciating move for the commodity. Today's US economic docket, featuring the release of housing market data - housing starts and building permits, followed by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index will now be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near the $1315-14 region, below which the commodity is likely to correct further towards $1309 horizontal level en-route the key $1300 psychological mark. On the flip side, the $1321-22 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared should lift the metal further towards its next major supply zone near the $1329-30 region.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Director Zhang was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the China-US trade tensions raise

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Director Zhang was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that the China-US trade tensions raise a huge amount of economic uncertainties. No further comments are reported as yet.

FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1300 653m 1.1400 571m - GBP

FX option expiries for Mar 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts  1.1300 653m 1.1400 571m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts  1.3095 389m - USD/JPY: USD amounts  110.10 725m 110.15 1.0bn 111.30 1.6bn - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7100 503m 0.7150 722m

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets showed open interest decreased by almost 800 contracts on Monday, while volume extended the choppy perf

CME Group’s flash data for JPY futures markets showed open interest decreased by almost 800 contracts on Monday, while volume extended the choppy performance and dropped by around 54.4K contracts.USD/JPY could re-test the 109.70 areaUSD/JPY is up for another session after testing lows in the 109.70 region. Declining open interest and volume around the Japanese safe haven could spark another bout of buying interest and send spot lower in the short-term horizon.

Reuters reports the latest comments by the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, as he spoke to the global business executives on the sidelines of the China Dev

Reuters reports the latest comments by the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, as he spoke to the global business executives on the sidelines of the China Development Forum.Key Quotes:“China is committed to providing foreign investors and companies with a more open and transparent business environment, along with guarantees of intellectual property rights protection and no forced technology transfers. The US trade team say they are in the final stages of negotiating what would be the biggest economic policy agreement with China in decades. “China encourages the development of new technologies and industries to create space for innovation and development.” China will not allow innovation to be “killed” just as it emerges. “

According to advanced figures from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by almost 2K contracts on Monday from the previous day.

According to advanced figures from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions by almost 2K contracts on Monday from the previous day. In the same line, volume shrunk for the second consecutive session, this time by around 21.3K contracts.GBP/USD stays cautious on BrexitCable has started the week on a negative mood although declining prices in combination with shrinking open interest and volume opens the door for a potential a U-turn in the near term. As always, price action will exclusively hinges on developments from the Brexit negotiations.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the EUR/USD pair has gone into consolidation mode after it steadied yesterday, following its reject

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the EUR/USD pair has gone into consolidation mode after it steadied yesterday, following its rejection last week from the 200 day ma at 1.1475.Key Quotes“We suspect that it is trying to base but needs to do more work – once above the 200 day ma this will target the 1.1570 January high together with the 55 week ma at 1.1610. We view 1.1176 as an interim low in place. Initial support lies at 1.1216 November low ahead of 1.1176 low.” “Below 1.1185/75 (61.8% retracement) lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

TD Securities analysts note that in India, the RBI has implemented a $5bn USDINR buy/sell swap auction yesterday to inject “durable” INR liquidity int

TD Securities analysts note that in India, the RBI has implemented a $5bn USDINR buy/sell swap auction yesterday to inject “durable” INR liquidity into the system.Key Quotes“This is an alternative to OMOs to offset the increase in FX liquidity in the system, especially given some large and chunky USD inflows. OMOs have been significant and have absorbed a huge chunk of government bond supply since Sep 18, reducing net government bond supply. There are a few consequences to note.” “The swaps will likely help reduced FX implied rates, fuelling convergence to OIS. In turn, this will help attract foreign inflows in the wake of reduced hedging costs while making it cheaper for corporates to raise USD funding.” “While the swaps will likely reduce government bond demand from RBI we don’t think this will translate into renewed bond market pressure. High real rates, stable FX, low inflation, potential for more rate cuts, benign Fed path, all bode well for bonds.”

Timme Spakman, economist at ING, points out that the world trade grew by 2.3% in January 2019and is partly a rebound after the fall seen in both Novem

Timme Spakman, economist at ING, points out that the world trade grew by 2.3% in January 2019and is partly a rebound after the fall seen in both November and December 2018.Key Quotes“Growth was broad-based with the strongest growth seen in emerging Asia (+6.2%), which follows a decline of -6.5% in December.” “Looking past the volatile growth figures, the three-month momentum shows a downward trend of -1.8%, indicating world trade is slowing.” “The prospects for 2019 remain concerning as what seems to be a cyclical downturn is dragging world trade growth down further. Pivotal to the slowdown is lagging Chinese growth, which is partly due to the US-China trade war that undermines US demand for Chinese exports.” “Considerable further downside risks are looming. Although the negotiations between the US and China continue, US demands remain very ambitious, leaving the potential for the talks to fail.” “So all in all, January shows strong growth, but prospects remain pretty bleak.”

Forex today in Asia was an eventless, quiet affair, as the sentiment was mainly driven by the risk-recovery in the Asian equities and US equity future

Forex today in Asia was an eventless, quiet affair, as the sentiment was mainly driven by the risk-recovery in the Asian equities and US equity futures, as the fears over China economic slowdown and trade war ebbed. Amid risk reset, the US dollar stuck to recent bearish bias and traded broadly subdued, aiding the bounce in the Antipodeans. However, the upside attempts remained capped amid an uptick in the US Treasury yields. The USD/JPY pair faded a bounce to 110.25 and entered a consolidative phase near the 110 handle, as the US recession fears continue to outweigh the BOJ’s accommodative monetary policy stance. Also, the Yen flows and large options expiries amid fiscal year ending In Japan also remained a main catalyst behind the pair’s price action. Among the European currencies, both the Euro and the GBP traded modestly flat, having given away early gains, as a lack of Brexit clarity continued to remain a drag, despite the UK Parliament’s takeover of the Brexit process for a day. On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks rebounded amid a better environment towards the risk assets, with WTI headed back to 59.50 levels. Meanwhile, gold prices on Comex extended its retreat from monthly tops near 1331 levels and traded near 1325 region towards Asia closing. Main Topics in AsiaBrexit HeadlinesGovernment claims vote for Letwin's indicative votes plan sets 'dangerous precedent' Brexit voting: Main motion result Yes 327 No 300 Corbyn comments: Where this government has failed, this House will succeedOther HeadlinesNZ: Trade surplus prints $12m in February - Westpac Fed's Rosengren: Balance sheet likely to grow Fed's Rosengren: Interest rate dot plot is not a promise of policy direction Japan's Aso: Never said the 2% price goal be scrapped Japan’s Motegi: Economy has sound fundamentals Gold Technical Analysis: Bulls in control above 1316, targetting 78.6% Fibo in 1332s WTI: 100-hour MA is capping upside on recession fears North Korea: Trump was open to easing sanctions with 'snapback' clause - Yonhap Dollar index holds below 100-day MA despite minor uptick in treasury yields Asian stocks on recovery mode as investors reassess recession fears, bond yields riseKey Focus AheadMarkets brace for yet another data-light European session today, as the developments around the Brexit process remain the main focus that will offer fresh trading impetus to the EUR, GBP traders. However, the traders could receive some fresh cues on the Eurozone economic health from the German Gfk consumer climate data that will drop in at 0700 GMT.  From the UK docket, the second-liner BBA mortgage approval data will be reported at 0930 GMT. Which is likely to have virtually no impact on the markets. The NA session has meaningful macro updates from the US, including the housing starts and building permits due at 1230 GMT. Later at 1400 GMT, the US Conference board consumer confidence data will be closely eyed for fresh dollar trades, as markets continue to track the US yields for fresh directives on the overall market sentiment. Meanwhile, oil traders will look forward to the US API weekly fuel stocks report that will be published at 2030 GMT. EUR/USD: Stuck at 4H 200MA ahead of German data, focus on US yield curve The EUR may pick up a strong bid if the German consumer confidence beats the expected print of 10.8. Post-German data the focus will likely shift back to the action in the German and US government bond yields. GBP/USD: Upside remains capped amid Brexit uncertainty The GBP/USD pair struggles between the British lawmakers’ inability to provide clarity over Brexit and recent weakness of the US Dollar. Looking forward, investors may keep a tab on the US data amid lack of economics from the UK while also observing developments surrounding the Brexit. Gold Price Forecast: Why it is rising on US recession fears and the big levels to watch The precious metal continues shining into the new week after recovering beforehand. The most recent driver of Gold is related to fears about a US recession. These concerns stem from the temporary inversion of the yield curve.  US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Preview: Is sentiment enough? The Consumer Confidence Index from the non-profit business group the Conference Board is projected to rise to 132.0 in March from 131.4 in February.  RBNZ to reiterate the next move could be 'up or down' - UBS The UBS analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.  

According to analysts at TD Securities, there is little doubt that the Hungary’s Monetary Council (MC) will take its first step on the path of policy

According to analysts at TD Securities, there is little doubt that the Hungary’s Monetary Council (MC) will take its first step on the path of policy "normalization" today.Key Quotes“This has been flagged for some time by the NBH, with a move in core inflation ex indirect tax effects above the 3% target stated as being a potential trigger for the process to begin - in February this core measure moved up to 3.2% Y/Y.” “We think there is a consensus that the NBH will reduce the amount of HUF liquidity provided to the market through FX swaps. What is less clear is if they will change interest rates.” “In the Bloomberg survey, 9/20 respondents expect the O/N Deposit Rate to remain at -0.15%, but 6 expect a 10bps hike and 5 expect a 15 bps hike. We are inclined to take previous guidance from the NBH at face value and to think that the first move in normalization will not involve a hike.” “A lot will depend on the forecasts in the March Inflation Report, which the MC will have to hand, but we think that recent HUF strength might embolden them to respond fairly dovishly to the move in core inflation above the 3% target.”

EUR/GBP hourly chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 0.8577 Today Daily Change 5

EUR/GBP is taking the bids around 0.8580 while heading towards European session on Tuesday.The pair continues to remain supported by a three-week-old upward sloping trend-line stretched since March 14.Though, 0.8595 - 0.8600 region including 50% Fibonacci retracement of March 13 to 21 advances is likely important resistance to watch.Should prices rally beyond 0.8600, 0.8640 and 0.8670 might entertain buyers ahead of pleasing them with 0.8700 and 0.8720 resistance levels.In a case when the quote slips under 0.8540 support-line, 0.8500 and 0.8470 could quickly appear on the chart.It should also be noted that 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of January 11 to March 21 moves, near 0.8360, can become sellers’ favorite if they dominate sentiment under 0.8470.EUR/GBP hourly chart 

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by just 881 contracts at the beginning of the week from Friday’s final 484,855 contracts, according to preli

Open interest in EUR futures markets rose by just 881 contracts at the beginning of the week from Friday’s final 484,855 contracts, according to preliminary figures from CME Group. On the other hand, volume reversed three consecutive daily builds and dropped markedly by nearly 119K contracts.EUR/USD further rangebound around 1.1300 on the cardsEUR/USD started the week on a positive note although further upside traction appears somewhat missing. The important drop in volume warns against a serious bullish attempt while marginal activity in open interest point to some consolidation ahead.

EUR/JPY  daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 124.56 Today Daily Change 47 Today Daily

The cross is extending the promising start of the week and is now regaining the mid-124.00s after bottoming out in the 123.85/80 band on Friday.Initial target on the upside emerges at t he 55-day SMA at 125.23 ahead of the 100-day SMA at 126.35.While below the short-term resistance line, today at 126.68, EUR/JPY is expected to remain under further downside pressure.EUR/JPY  daily chart  

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 96.57 Today Daily Change 9 Today Dai

DXY is now trading within a sideline theme around the 21-day and 100-day SMAs in the 96.50/60 band.The greenback needs to overcome last week’s tops at 96.80 to allow for further upside to, initially, February high at 97.37.Looking at the broader picture, the constructive bias remains unchanged while above the key 200-day SMA at 95.87. This area of support is reinforced by March 20 low at 95.74.DXY daily chart  

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) in line with forecasts (0.5%) in 4Q

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) came in at 2.2%, above expectations (2%) in 4Q

Asian stock markets were on recovery mode during early Tuesday as fears concerning the US recession seem to fade recently with the bond yields taking

Asian stock markets were on recovery mode during early Tuesday as fears concerning the US recession seem to fade recently with the bond yields taking a U-turn from lows. Shares in Japan were the biggest Asian gainers with Topix index rising nearly 2.0% by the press time. Reuters also reported a 0.3% gain of the MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan against 1.4% previous loss.  Australian shares remained mostly flat with a soft print of weekly ANZ/Roy consumer confidence survey confronting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis. Stocks in India were up nearly 0.2% whereas the Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.0% as investors expect a further downgrade in earnings from the dragon nation. Yields on the 10-year US treasury bonds recover from 2.377% to 2.425% as investors reassess speculations of the US economy declining back to 2007 like a recession. Looking forward, investors may observe developments surrounding the US-China trade talks and comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans in order to determine near-term trade bias. In the European session, German GfK consumer survey should gain market attention.

AUD/USD closed yesterday at 0.7112, confirming a falling wedge breakout on the daily chart.  While the bear-to-bull trend change has opened the doors

AUD/USD closed yesterday at 0.7112, confirming a falling wedge breakout on the daily chart.  While the bear-to-bull trend change has opened the doors to 0.72, the gains may remain elusive if the treasury yield curve inversion and the resulting recession fears continue to keep risk assets on the defensive.  That said, the breakout is backed by the 14-day relative strength index's (RSIs) bullish break above 50.00. So, the probability of the AUD rising to 0.72 looks strong. The bullish case, however, would weak if potential risk-off sends the pair below 0.7065 (Monday's low). Daily chartTrend: Cautiously bullish  

According to Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, the inversion of the 3m-10yr US yield curve late last week has understandably put US

According to Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, the inversion of the 3m-10yr US yield curve late last week has understandably put US recession risk back in the spotlight given its enviable track record as a predictor of US recessions.Key Quotes“The yield curve based model accurately predicted all five US recessions that occurred in-sample between 1970-1996 (i.e. the estimated probability of a recession exceeded 50%) and accurately predicted the two recessions that occurred out of sample in 2001 and 2008-2009 too.” “This same model currently estimates the probability of a US recession at a relatively high 20% over the next twelve months. But, if the curve remains inverted for another two months the probability rises to just over 40%; a very elevated reading.”

Susan Kilsby, agriculture economist at ANZ, points out that the New Zealand’s trade balance for February was stronger than expected with exports above

Susan Kilsby, agriculture economist at ANZ, points out that the New Zealand’s trade balance for February was stronger than expected with exports above expectations and imports aligned with expectations.Key Quotes“The unadjusted monthly trade balance hit a small surplus in February of $12m in January. Exports at $4.8bn were above expectations, with lamb exports at record levels. Imports were aligned with expectations at $4.8bn.” “On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased 7.7% m/m.” “Seasonally adjusted imports rose 0.7% m/m.” “On a regional basis, exports to China continued to trend up. Exports to China in February were 32.5% higher than the previous February. Year to date exports are now up 16.1%. Exports to South Korea are also in double digits for the year to date, up 10.1%.” “Further surpluses are expected as the year progresses reflecting ongoing strength in export volumes of meat and dairy products. The recent lift in dairy prices is yet to flow through to export values but this should start to occur in the coming months.”

USD/CHF daily chart USD/CHF continues to remain around 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.9920 ahead of European open on Tuesday. 38.

USD/CHF daily chartUSD/CHF continues to remain around 200-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.9920 ahead of European open on Tuesday.38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of September to November 2018 rise, at 0.9900, seems immediate support for the pair ahead of looking towards 0.9860 and 0.9800 rest-points.On the upside, 0.9960 and 0.9990-1.000 area comprising 50-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement could challenge buyers. USD/CHF 4-Hour chartIn addition to 38.2% FIbo, the horizontal line connecting late-January lows to the recent lows also highlights 0.9900 round-figure for sellers.1.0025/30 and 1.0070 are likely resistances to watch past-1.0000 breakout.Also, 0.9840 may act as an intermediate halt between 0.9860 and 0.9800. USD/CHF hourly chartWhile a week-long descending trend-line caps immediate advances at 0.9930, a fortnight old downward sloping resistance-line increases the importance of 0.9960 barrier to the north.61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of the quote’s moves since March 15 could offer nearby support at 0.9875.

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) above expectations (0%) in February: Actual (0.7%)

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) registered at -4.1%, below expectations (-2%) in February

The spread between the US and German two-year government bond yields is seen at 282 basis points at press time, the lowest level since March 2018.  T

The spread between the US and German two-year government bond yields is seen at 282 basis points at press time, the lowest level since March 2018.  The spread has narrowed more than 70 basis points in the EUR-positive manner since early November. Interestingly, investors first began turning up the heat on the Fed to dial back rate hikes in November.  The yield on the two-year bonds tends to track short-term interest rate expectations more closely than the longer duration bond yields, which are more sensitive to haven demand. US-German two-year yield spread 

According to Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, Thailand’s partial election results have sowed uncertainty and confus

According to Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, Thailand’s partial election results have sowed uncertainty and confusion as the pro-military faction is pitted against various opposition parties.Key Quotes“The final result is scheduled to be announced on May 9, but with 95% of votes counted the Pheu Thai party has won the most seats.” “Both sides have said they will attempt to form a government, but the odds favour a reinstatement of pro-military Prime-Minister Prayuth.” “The markets' initial sanguine reaction is likely to give way to uncertainty, with portfolio inflows already weakening ahead of elections.” “THB outperformance is unlikely to continue, with the currency likely to lag other Asian FX versus USD.”  

Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged last week, edging down just 0.1%, points out the research team at ANZ. Key Quote

Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged last week, edging down just 0.1%, points out the research team at ANZ.Key Quotes“The financial conditions sub-components were both negative. Current financial conditions fell 1.4%, following the 6% rise in the previous week, while future financial conditions were down by 3.3%.” “Economic conditions were mixed, with current economic conditions down 0.1% and future economic conditions rising 3.6%.” “The ‘time to buy a household item’ rose by 1%, the first rise after three consecutive falls. Four-week moving average inflation expectations were stable at 4%.”  

Michael Gordon, analyst at Westpac, points out that the New Zealand recorded a small trade surplus of $12m in February as exports bounced back from an

Michael Gordon, analyst at Westpac, points out that the New Zealand recorded a small trade surplus of $12m in February as exports bounced back from an unusually weak January.Key Quotes“In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose by 7.7% in February, reversing most of an 8.6% decline in January. There were large gains in dairy, reflecting the strong growth in milk production during spring and early summer, and a rebound in meat exports.” “Imports were up 0.7% in seasonally adjusted terms. Oil import volumes pulled back from an elevated level, while imports of capital equipment and consumer goods remained strong.” “The annual trade deficit widened further to $6.62bn, the largest since July 2006. Export earnings have been growing modestly, and will soon receive a further boost from the sharp rise in dairy prices at recent auctions. However, the growth in exports has been outweighed by a strong rise in imports, reflecting the growth in domestic demand. Higher oil import prices also played a role over 2018, but they have eased back in recent months. We expect the trade deficit to narrow again by the end of this year.”

The British Pound (GBP) is little positive around 1.3200 mark versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair struggles b

Less clarity over Brexit acts as a key challenge for the GBP/USD pair.The 1.3230 resistance-line limits immediate upside of the quote.The British Pound (GBP) is little positive around 1.3200 mark versus the US Dollar (USD) ahead of London open on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair struggles between the British lawmakers’ inability to provide clarity over Brexit and recent weakness of the US Dollar. Looking forward, investors may keep a tab on the US data amid lack of economics from the UK while also observing developments surrounding the Brexit. The UK 10-year Gilt yields dropped beneath 1.0% mark for the first time since 2017 as members of the parliament (MPs) continue to plot against the PM Theresa May. The British MPs recently favored a motion that gives the parliament an upper hand over the government on Brexit issues. The same motion, known as Letwin amendment, will be up for voting on Wednesday and might increase pressure on the UK PM. On the positive side, traders assume a meaningful difference from the no-deal Brexit and an unconditional April 12 deadline given by the EU. As per the latest CFTC report, speculative net short positions for the GBP dropped to the lowest since June 2018 during the week ended on March 19. While Brexit uncertainty continues to challenge Sterling traders, lack of the British data will push market players toward the US housing and consumer confidence statistics for fresh impulse. The US housing starts may decline to 1.215 million from 1.230 million during February month whereas building permits could also soften towards 1.3000 million versus 1.317 million previous revised. Also, the confederation board’s consumer confidence index seems crucial if it registers a meaningful difference from the 131.4 prior.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisThe fortnight old descending trend-line caps the pair’s immediate upside around 1.3230 now, a break of which can recall 1.3300 and 1.3380 on the chart. On the downside, 1.3170 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 1.3080 can please sellers during further declines.

USD/INR is currently trading at 68.815 – down 0.15 percent on the day – having registered a 0.35 percent on Monday.  As seen in the 4-hour chart, the

USD/INR is currently trading at 68.815 – down 0.15 percent on the day – having registered a 0.35 percent on Monday.  As seen in the 4-hour chart, the pair is creating a narrowing price range of symmetrical triangle-like pattern on the 4-hour chart. As of writing, the upper edge of the triangle is seen at 69.16 and the lower edge is located at 68.66.  A break below 68.66 would confirm triangle breakdown and allow a re-test of the recent low of 68.34. The RSI on the 4-hour chart has fallen back into bearish territory below 50.00 and will breach the ascending trendline if the spot suffers range breakdown.  The corrective bounce, however, may gather pace if the upper edge of the flag is breached.4-hour chartTrend: Bearish below 68.66  

EUR/USD's bounce from the lows near 1.1270 seen on Friday has stalled near the 4-hour 200-candle moving average (MA), currently at 1.1321, ahead of th

The 4-hour 200-candle moving average resistance continues to cap upside in EUR/USD. An above-forecast German GFK consumer confidence could yield a break above the MA resistance, currently at 1.1321. Focus now is on the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields. EUR/USD's bounce from the lows near 1.1270 seen on Friday has stalled near the 4-hour 200-candle moving average (MA), currently at 1.1321, ahead of the key data release.  The market-research group GfK's monthly survey, scheduled for release at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show that German consumer sentiment will remain stable in April despite the worsening economic expectations. The EUR may pick up a strong bid if the German consumer confidence beats the expected print of 10.8. A weaker-than-expected print, however, could push the spot below 1.13.  Post-German data the focus will likely shift back to the action in the German and US government bond yields. It is worth noting that the futures on the S&P 500 are currently hinting at risk reset with a 0.30 percent gain. Put simply, markets may be done pricing in the recession signaled by the spread between the US 10-year and three-month yields.  As a result, the probability of the EUR could rise toward 1.1350, unless the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields drops sharply from the current level of 11 basis points. That could lead to another wave of risk aversion, sending the EUR lower.  Technically speaking, a break below 1.1273 (Friday's low) would signal a resumption of the sell-off from the recent high of 1.1448 and with RSI below 50.00, the breakdown could yield a drop toward 1.12. Technical Levels 

USD/JPY trades near 110.00 during early Tuesday. The quote recently took a U-turn from 110.25-30 resistance-area as US Dollar (USD) remains weak on re

Doubts over the US economic strength remain present to limit the USD growth.109.75/70 seems immediate support to watch during further pullbackUSD/JPY trades near 110.00 during early Tuesday. The quote recently took a U-turn from 110.25-30 resistance-area as US Dollar (USD) remains weak on recession fears. Housing and consumer confidence data from the US will be important to watch next. The US 10-year treasury yield is presently up 4 basis points (bps) to 2.425% from Friday’s 2.377% that triggered global anticipation of the US recession targeting earlier such event of 10-year to 3-month yield inversion during 2007. Weaker than the previous -0.25 figure of Chicago Fed national activity index to -0.29 also highlighted the economic weakness of the US on Monday. Adding to the pessimism were comments from the Standard Chartered CEO that highlighted fears from China’s economic growth slowdown. Traders also took negative clues from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren when he expected slower growth during the first quarter of the present year. Investors may now emphasize on the February month housing market numbers and confederation board’s consumer confidence survey results for fresh direction while keeping a tab on global risk sentiment.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisThe 110.25/30 are comprising March 25 high and low of March 21 restricts the pair’s immediate upside, a break of which highlights 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 110.45 and 111.00. Alternatively, 109.75/70 seems immediate support ahead of highlighting 109.30 and 109.00 rest points.

The EUR/JPY pair is currently trading at 124.50, having hit a session high of 124.79 earlier today and could suffer a deeper drop if key support at 12

The EUR/JPY pair is currently trading at 124.50, having hit a session high of 124.79 earlier today and could suffer a deeper drop if key support at 124.41 is breached.  That would confirm a flag breakdown on the hourly chart - a bearish continuation pattern, which usually ends up accelerating the preceding bearish move.  A break below 124.41, therefore, could yield a re-test of the recent low of 123.82. Validating that bearish view is the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI) of 48.00. Hourly chartTrend: Bearish below 124.41  

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on Gold, noting that they have turned more neutral on the yellow metal. Key Quotes: “Turned 'more neu

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their outlook on Gold, noting that they have turned more neutral on the yellow metal.Key Quotes:“Turned 'more neutral' on gold, citing the Fed's policy baked in. Now bullish on silver on an expected recovery in industrial demand later in 2019. Gold prices seen at USD 1290/oz in Q2 2019, 1300 in Q3 and 1350 in Q4.Further reason cited:The buying by central banks is supportive for gold. They've bought 126 tons in the first quarter of 2019. China, Turkey, Russia are adding to their reserves.”

The dollar index (DXY) is flat-lined below the 100-day MA, currently at 96.54, having failed to keep gains above that crucial average line in the last

The dollar index is sidelined below the 100-day moving average (MA) at press time, despite the uptick in the treasury yields. The greenback could take cues from the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields. The dollar index (DXY) is flat-lined below the 100-day MA, currently at 96.54, having failed to keep gains above that crucial average line in the last two trading days.  The 10-year treasury yield is currently trading at 2.42 percent, up four basis points from the low of 2.38 percent hit yesterday. So far, however, the recovery in the benchmark bond yield has failed to put a bid under the greenback.  It is worth noting that the DXY had picked up a strong bid at six-week lows near 95.70 hit last Wednesday, as the rate pause signaled by the central bank on that was priced in by markets over the last three months.  The bounce, however, ran out of steam at 96.81 on Friday with the section of the yield curve inverting for the time since 2009, triggering recession fears. Further, the index fell back below the 100-day MA yesterday, stalling the bounce from the lows 95.70 hit last week.  Looking forward, the focus remains on the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields, which is still holding in the positive territory. Technical Levels 

South Korean news agencies Yonhap and Newsis reported a statement published by North Korea late-Monday, citing that the US President Donald Trump was

South Korean news agencies Yonhap and Newsis reported a statement published by North Korea late-Monday, citing that the US President Donald Trump was open to easing sanctions on North Korea provided there was a ‘snapback’ clause if the North restarted nuclear activities. Trump said on Friday he decided against imposing new large-scale sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear weapons programme, according to Reuters.

The US-China trade tensions and the resulting fears of a slowdown in China's economy are "receding a bit", the CEO of Standard Chartered reportedly sa

The US-China trade tensions and the resulting fears of a slowdown in China's economy are "receding a bit", the CEO of Standard Chartered reportedly said while speaking at an investment conference in Hong Kong.  In 2018, China’s economic growth rate slowed to the lowest level in 28 years, forcing the government to lift its 2019 budget deficit target to 2.8 percent of gross domestic product from last year’s 2.6 percent. That will give Beijing more room to initiate tax cuts and increase infrastructure spending to stabilise its sagging economy.

NZD/USD hit a high of 0.9548 yesterday, the highest level since Feb. 1, and closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since Dec.

NZD/USD hit a high of 0.9548 yesterday, the highest level since Feb. 1, and closed above the 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since Dec. 31.  The close above the long-term average is backed by the ascending 5- and 10-day moving averages. Further, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has breached the three-month range to the higher side.  The NZD, therefore, could rise toward 0.9580 (Jan. 31 high). The bullish setup would be invalidated if the spot finds acceptance under the 10-day MA, currently at 0.9458. As of writing, the pair is trading at 0.6917, representing a 0.17 percent gain on the day. Daily chartTrend: Bullish  

Japanese Economy Minister Motegi crossed the wires earlier today, responding to some questions on the recent drop in stock prices. When asked about t

Japanese Economy Minister Motegi crossed the wires earlier today, responding to some questions on the recent drop in stock prices. When asked about the fall in Japanese stock prices, Motegi noted that the economy has sound fundamentals. This comes after the Japanese benchmark index, the Nikkei 225, fell 3% on Monday amid growing US recession fears. At the press time, the Nikkei 225 index rebounds +1.80% to trade near 21,360 points.Nikkei 225 Technical Levels 

USD/CAD trades near the intra-day low of 1.3385 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The quote extended the previous pullback from a downward sl

Greenback weakness and crude recovery please the Loonie buyers.An upside clearance of 1.3420 can trigger the quote’s rally to 1.3470 and 1.3500.USD/CAD trades near the intra-day low of 1.3385 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The quote extended the previous pullback from a downward sloping trend-line since early January as oil prices remain strong. The US housing and consumer confidence numbers coupled with API weekly crude inventories will be next in the USD/CAD traders’ radar to watch. The USD/CAD pair took a U-turn from 12-week long descending trend-line on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) weakened across the board on recession fears signaled by the 10-year and 3-month treasury yields. During early Tuesday, investors focused on soft USD as a favor to extend support for rest of the major currencies and commodities. The greenback buyers gave little importance to the comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren that said the Fed’s dot-plot is not a promise of policy direction. Crude, Canada’s main export, managed to remain strong as weaker greenback favors commodities. Industry oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended on March 22 will gain oil traders’ attention and could have its impact on the USD/CAD pair as well. The inventory report showed -2.1333 million barrels of drawdown during earlier release. Additionally, February month housing start and building permits, coupled with January month house price index and the current month consumer confidence survey, from the US will also gain market attention. The housing starts may soften to 1.215M from 1.230M with the building permits likely being at 1.3000M versus 1.317M (revised) prior and the housing price index expected to be unchanged at 0.3%. Also, the confederation board’s consumer confidence survey might also affect the Loonie if it registers drastic moves from 131.4 earlier.USD/CAD Technical AnalysisUSD/CAD requires a successful break of 1.3420 resistance in order to challenge early-month high around 1.3470 and then aim 1.3500 round-figure. It should also be noted that 1.3570 can please buyers past-1.3500. On the downside, 1.3370 acts as immediate support ahead of highlighting 1.3330 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 1.3270.

The UBS analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision. Key Quotes: “RBN

The UBS analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision.Key Quotes:“RBNZ to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75%. Our economists also expect the RBNZ to repeat the key messages from the February MPS that the OCR will remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020 and that the next (move)could be 'up or down'.  We still see upside in NZD as the market remains too dovishly priced relative to the RBNZ's tone and as domestic fundamentals remain resilient.”

WTI oil's bounce from the seven-day low of $58.20 hit yesterday is struggling to break above the 100-hour MA, currently at $59.35.  The black gold is

Oil is currently probing the 100-hour MA resistance amid US recession fears. With the futures on the S&P 500 pointing to risk reset, oil prices could rise above the MA hurdle. WTI oil's bounce from the seven-day low of $58.20 hit yesterday is struggling to break above the 100-hour MA, currently at $59.35.  The black gold is struggling to beat the MA hurdle, possibly due to heightened recession fears. On Friday, a section of the treasury yield curve inverted - the spread between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury yields turned negative for the first time since 2007 - triggering fears of recession. Further, the German 10- year bond yield turned negative for the first time since 2016.  That said, the futures on the S&P 500 are up 0.24 percent at press time, meaning a risk reset could be in the offing. Oil, therefore, may find acceptance above the 100-hour MA hurdle.  Moreover, risk reset would shift the focus back to the ongoing supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and by U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.  That said, the immediate bias is bearish, as per technical studies. The black gold fell 1.67 percent on Friday, confirming a bearish doji reversal. Further, on the 4-hour chart, a head-and-shoulders would be formed if prices retreat from the current level of $59.24. Technical Levels
 

Analysts at Goldman Sachs argue that the risks remain to the downside for the EUR/USD pair, citing three why the EUR reversed its post-FOMC gains.  K

Analysts at Goldman Sachs argue that the risks remain to the downside for the EUR/USD pair, citing three why the EUR reversed its post-FOMC gains. Key Quotes:“Brexit-related uncertainty has kicked up again …. weighs on the Euro to some degree. Even though market volatility may curtail risk sentiment in the short run, EUR-funded carry trades remain attractive to many investors. March flash PMIs trampled on the "green shoots" of growth that had started to show in some of the Q1 data. What could it take for EUR/USD to break above its recent trading range? A re-rating in Euro area growth prospects … it looks like that has been delayed yet again.”  

GBP/JPY daily chart GBP/JPY trades near 145.40 during early Tuesday. The pair continues to be supported by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA)

GBP/JPY daily chartGBP/JPY trades near 145.40 during early Tuesday.The pair continues to be supported by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) on daily chart around 144.70 with 100-day SMA level of 143.75 offering follow-on support to watch.On the upside, a bit broader descending trend-line stretched since May 2018, at 149.30, becomes crucial for Bulls as it holds the gate for the quote’s rally to 150.00. GBP/JPY 4-Hour chartAn upward sloping trend-line joining lows since February 19 and a descending resistance-line from March 14 together portray a short-term symmetrical triangle formation on the 4-hour chart between 144.60 and 147.30 area.However, 145.90 and 146.60 could act as buffer stops.Should the quote cross 147.30 resistance, it can rally to it mid-month high around 148.90 while 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) of 149.90 can act as buffers prior to highlighting 150.00 mark.On the downside break of 144.60, 143.80 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 143.10 could entertain sellers with 61.8% Fibonacci level of 141.80 and 141.00 likely to be on their list afterward. GBP/JPY hourly chartThe 144.60-50 area acts as immediate support contrast to 145.90 being nearby resistance.Also, 146.10 can offer an intermediate halt between 145.90 and 146.60.

The interest rate projections or the dot plot published by the US Fed every three months is not a promise of policy direction but a guidance which is

The interest rate projections or the dot plot published by the US Fed every three months is not a promise of policy direction but a guidance which is data dependent.  So, the Fed may put 2019 rate hike back on the table if the US data improves significantly and overseas risks diminish in the near future.  The Federal Reserve said last Wednesday there will likely be no interest rate hikes in 2019, marking a reversal from a previous forecast of two increases this year.

While above 1316, gold bulls are in control, currently challenging the 61.8% Fibo within the rising wedge formation, with targets set on the 78.6%

While above 1316, gold bulls are in control, currently challenging the 61.8% Fibo within the rising wedge formation, with targets set on the 78.6% Fibo. There is room here for a pullback to challenge the rising wedge's support with stochastics overbought.1320 ahead of 1332 guards the 2019 highs as being the 19th Feb high of 1345.19. On the downside, 1316 and 1302 are key. A break here will jeopardise the bullish Ichimoku Cloud and leave the outlook neutral with a bearish bias. 1298 and 1290 guard a run to 1280 as a keen target ahead of 1275 which remains the line in the sand to the downside. A break below here will put the attention back to the towards to 1250, a key confluence area made up of Fibos and prior support and resistance.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7042 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7098. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.7042 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7098. 

AUD/JPY hourly chart   Additional important levels Overview Today last price 78.44 Today Daily Change 23

AUD/USD is on bids around 78.50 during early Tuesday.The pair broke a weeklong descending trend-line stretched since March 21 and is currently heading towards 78.55/60 resistance area comprising lows of March 14 and 21.Should buyers manage to hold the strength after 78.60, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downturn from March 18 to 25 can challenge further upside at 78.70.In a case where prices rally beyond 78.70, there are multiple resistances near 79.00 round-figure to conquer for the bulls ahead of aiming to revisit the current month high surrounding 79.40.Meanwhile, 78.30 and 78.00 could entertain sellers during the pair’s pullback.Given the quote slips beneath 78.00, 77.80 and recent lows around 77.50 can flash on their radar ahead of highlighting 77.00 for bears.AUD/JPY hourly chart 

Japan's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso is out on the wires stating that he never said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) should scrap its 2

Japan's Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso is out on the wires stating that he never said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) should scrap its 2 percent inflation target.  Aso, however, had said earlier this month that the Bank of Japan should not stick to its goal of raising the annual inflation rate to 2 percent. The Finance Minister had also asked the government to abandon the 2 percent inflation target and provide clarification on why it failed to achieve the goal and provide a clear explanation to the public.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is on bids around the intra-day high of 0.7120 versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Tuesday. The pair recently recovere

Upbeat comments from RBA’s Ellis and Brexit developments join hands with the positive news from the US-China trade front.0.7130 level of 50-day SMA becomes the buyer’s favorite ahead of aiming for 100-day SMA.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is on bids around the intra-day high of 0.7120 versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Tuesday. The pair recently recovered as upbeat comments from the RBA’s assistant governor joined hands with overall market risk-on sentiment after positive news from Brexit. Trades may now concentrate on the US housing and consumer confidence numbers for fresh impulse. The AUD/USD pair witnessed gains on Monday as worries concerning the US recession (due to Friday’s yield inversion news report) and the positive developments surrounding the US-China trade deal pleased Aussie buyers. The upside momentum carried overnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis praised the strength of domestic labor market and expected drags on income to fade soon during her appearance at the housing industry association. Adding strength to the buying was voting on various Brexit amendments at the UK parliament. British members of parliament (MPs) voted in favor of an amendment seeking the House of Commons take control over the Brexit from the government while turning down amendment favoring the votes on no-deal Brexit ahead of one week from deadline. Comments from the Eric Rosengren President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston supporting Fed’s balance sheet expansion and more short-term bonds also entertained Aussie optimists. Next up in the traders’ radar will be February month housing market numbers from the US coupled with confederation board’s consumer confidence gauge. The US housing starts may soften to 1.215 million over the 1.230 million prior whereas the building permits may also decline to 1.300 million from 1.317 million revised earlier. The housing price index for January may remain unchanged while consumer confidence survey registered 131.4 figure during the previous month.AUD/USD Technical Analysis50-day simple moving average (SMA) level near 0.7130 gains immediate attention of the Aussie buyers ahead of diverting the bulls toward 0.7160 comprising 100-day SMA. On the downside, an upward sloping support-line connecting lows since March 11 can restrict nearby declines at 0.7070, a break of which can recall 0.7030 and 0.7000 on the chart.

Normalizing Fed's balance sheet to levels seen before the 2008 crisis is not feasible and the central bank's balance sheet is likely to grow again, Fe

Normalizing Fed's balance sheet to levels seen before the 2008 crisis is not feasible and the central bank's balance sheet is likely to grow again, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Rosengren said earlier today while speaking in Hong Kong, according to Reuters. Key quotesIt may be important for the Fed to increase the share of treasury bills, lower duration of its balance sheet more quickly. Fed will need to consider when to purchase securities to offset declining reserves as currency grows. Central banks globally likely to reach rates' lower limit quickly in a recession, making asset buying possible. Important for the public to become more comfortable with the benefits of fed using its balance sheet.
 

USD/JPY is currently trading at 110.11, having hit a low of 109.70 in the Asian session yesterday - the lowest level since Feb. 8.  The pair dived ou

USD/JPY is reporting moderate gains above 110.00 at press time, having hit 1.5-month lows yesterday. The pair seems to have picked up a bid, tracking the slight recovery in the US 10-year treasury yield from lows seen yesterday.BOJ's Summary of Opinions released earlier today offered little hawkish or dovish surprises, leaving JPY pairs largely unaffected. USD/JPY is currently trading at 110.11, having hit a low of 109.70 in the Asian session yesterday - the lowest level since Feb. 8.  The pair dived out of the trendline rising from January lows on Friday as the recession fears gripped markets with the spread between the US 10-year and three-month treasury yields turning negative for the first time since 2007. The resulting risk-off tone in equities kept JPY better bid in the Asian session yesterday.  The dollar sell-off, however, stalled below 110.00 in the US trading hours despite the drop in the 10-year treasury yield below 2.4 percent, the lowest level since December 2017 and the pair has now moved back above the psychological level, possibly tracking the 10-year yield's recovery from 2.38 percent to current 2.42 percent. Possibly adding to the bid tone around the USD are the marginal gains in the S&P 500 futures.  Looking forward, the currency pair may revisit the former support-turned-resistance of 110.30 if the recession fears ebb, allowing a recovery rally in stocks.  The Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions for the meeting, dated March 15, released a few minutes before press time reiterated the need to maintain powerful easing while keeping an eye on side-effects of stimulus. The Summary offered little hawkish or dovish surprises, leaving the JPY pairs largely unaffected. Technical Levels 

Lawmakers from China are likely turning more towards making the yuan more market-oriented. After the weekend news that the People's Bank of China Gov

Lawmakers from China are likely turning more towards making the yuan more market-oriented. After the weekend news that the People's Bank of China Governor Yi Gang favored flexible rate for the Chinese Yuan (CNY), Bloomberg came out with a report on early Tuesday saying Pan Gongsheng, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, supports more transparent, rule-based CNY reference rate. “The yuan’s daily reference rate needs to be more transparent and rule-based, and the market should be allowed to play a bigger role setting the price,” the report quoted China’s state admin of Forex speaking at the annual China Development Forum in Beijing.

AUD/NZD trades near 1.0290 during early Tuesday. The pair initially strengthened after the RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis sound upbeat o

Upbeat comments from RBA’s Ellis couldn’t confront soft consumer survey from Australia and welcome New Zealand trade balance results.Traders may now seek developments on the US-China trade deal for fresh impulse.AUD/NZD trades near 1.0290 during early Tuesday. The pair initially strengthened after the RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis sound upbeat on employment results. However, better than forecast New Zealand trade balance numbers and soft figures of weekly Australian consumer survey dragged the quote down afterward. With no more data on hand for publishing, traders may turn to the US-China trade deal developments in order to determine near-term market direction. The AUD/NZD pair remained little changed on Monday as news that the US delegates will reach to China on March 28, followed by Chinese lawmaker’s Washington visit on April 03, pleased antipodeans alike. At the start of Tuesday, The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis said that the labor market in Australia has 'unambiguously' improved while saying that some of the drags on income are not likely to be permanent. Ellis praised labor market data and conveyed worries over weak income growth weighing on household consumption as she spoke at the housing industry association's industry outlook breakfast. Following the speech, February month New Zealand trade balance pleased Kiwi buyers. The trade numbers were overall positive as trade balance grew $12 million against $-109 million forecast and $-948 million earlier (revised) on a monthly basis whereas exports (YoY) surged past $4.70 billion consensuses to $4.82 billion and $4.33 billion prior (revised). Imports were down to $4.80 billion compared to $4.90 billion expectations and $5.28 billion revised previous while yearly figures of trade balance slide further to $-6.62 billion from $-6.45 billion revised earlier and $-6.13 billion forecast. Adding to the pair weakness was the weekly release of Australia’s ANZ / Roy Morgan consumer survey results that showed 111.8 mark versus 111.9 prior.
With no major details/events left for publishing, traders may now concentrate on developments surrounding the US-China trade deal as China is among the consumer of Australia and New Zealand both.AUD/NZD Technical AnalysisA sustained break of 1.0270 becomes important for the AUD/NZD sellers to aim for September 2016 lows around 1.0230 and then 1.0200 round-figure. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of immediate descending trendline, at 1.0305 now, could please buyers with 1.0330 and 1.0370.

BoJ March 14 and 15 2019 summary comes as follows: Must maintain powerful monetary easing as momentum for hitting price goal sustained. Must keep

BoJ March 14 and 15 2019 summary comes as follows: Must maintain powerful monetary easing as momentum for hitting price goal sustained. Must keep current policy, watch economic developments for time being while keeping eye on side-effects of stimulus. Must ensure fiscal, monetary policy mix is maintained. Must take policy action pre-emptively if economic, price developments change. Must start preparing for policy response as downside risks materialising. If momentum for price growth lost, BOJ should ease decisively.  Full text here

Japan Corporate Service Price (YoY) remains at 1.1% in February

EUR/GBP trades near the intra-day low of 0.8560 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair declined as the UK’s House of Commons voted in fav

With the British House of Commons supporting to take control of Brexit issues from the government, Pound traders remain positive for soft proceedings ahead.Wednesday’s voting on these amendments will be crucial to determining Brexit future whereas German consumer survey results could offer intermediate moves.EUR/GBP trades near the intra-day low of 0.8560 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair declined as the UK’s House of Commons voted in favor of an amendment supporting the parliament to have control of Brexit process over the government. However, actual voting on these amendments will be voted on Wednesday and the actual scenario becomes clearer by then. Meanwhile, German GfK consumer climate can offer intermediate impulse other than the Brexit developments. On early Tuesday, the British parliament was scheduled to vote over three different amendments namely the A, F and D. Out of which, the opposition Labour party withdrew amendment D that could have given parliament to vote on seeking more time for different Brexit approaches. As a result, two motions, namely the amendment A and F, were up for voting. Out of the two amendments, the headline Amendment A, better known as Letwin amendment, was accepted with 327 votes in favor compared to 300 dissenters. The Letwin amendment gives parliament a right over the government to hold indicative votes on Brexit options. The other one, namely the amendment F, that signaled a right to parliament to vote over no-deal Brexit before a week from the deadline, was rejected. With the latest voting at the UK House of Commons likely giving higher authority to the parliament, if voted in favor on Wednesday, reduced uncertainty over the Brexit issue as MPs have previously created noise surrounding the PM Theresa May’s proposals. Other than Brexit, GfK consumer confidence survey result for Germany will be closely watched after the Ifo business survey results pleased EUR buyers on Monday. The consumer survey result is less likely to change from 10.8 prior.EUR/GBP Technical AnalysisWhile 0.8550 seems immediate support for the EUR/GBP pair, 0.8470 and support-line of a short-term descending trend-channel at 0.8430 can limit the quote’s additional declines. Alternatively, 0.8650 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of 0.8680 could confine near-term upside of the pair ahead of highlighting channel resistance near 0.8715.

The opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has made a statement following the government's defeat where MPs voted to seize control of indicative votes proc

The opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has made a statement following the government's defeat where MPs voted to seize control of indicative votes process from the government by a majority of 27. The government must take this process seriously. This house must now find a solution. This house must consider whether any deal should be put to the people for a vote. Where this gov has failed, this house will succeed.  The main motion has now been passed by 327 votes to 300 - a majority of 27 which reinforces the Letwin vote, because the main motion is now basically the Letwin amendment.Brexit voting underway: Letwin Amendment Yes 329 vs No 302 Government claims vote for Letwin's indicative votes plan sets 'dangerous precedent'   

MPs are now voting on the main motion, as amended; Essentially this is a rerun of the vote on Letwin. Result: Yes 327 No 300 Extra reading: Gover

MPs are now voting on the main motion, as amended; Essentially this is a rerun of the vote on Letwin.Result: Yes 327 No 300Extra reading:Government claims vote for Letwin's indicative votes plan sets 'dangerous precedent' Brexit voting: Amendment F result Yes 311 No 314Brexit voting underway: Letwin Amendment Yes 329 vs No 302UK PM May: Alternative is to pursue different form of Brexit or a second referendumUK PM May: There is not support in the House to hold third vote on deal

The British Pound (GBP) seesaws around 1.3200 marks versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair is taking the bids as the UK mem

The British House of Commons vote in favor of the parliament taking control of Brexit over the government.Pound traders welcome decision as it reduces uncertainty.The British Pound (GBP) seesaws around 1.3200 marks versus the US Dollar (USD) during early Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair is taking the bids as the UK members of parliaments (MPs) voted on various Brexit amendments. The first one giving the parliament an authority over government to take control of Brexit was welcomed by the Pound buyers as MPs have previously turned down all the proposal of the UK PM Theresa May and caused uncertainty over the Brexit. GBP/USD previously took advantage of the US Dollar weakness on the US yield inversion news.
The Pound gained nearly 40 pips to 1.3220 after the MPs favor amendment A, also known as the Letwin amendment, which seeks to take control of parliament and hold indicative votes on Brexit options. Initially, there were three amendments namely A, D and F were on the vote but opposition Labour party scaled back Amendment D that called on the government to give parliament time to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit. The UK House of Commons is still to convey the result of amendment F that gives the government the right to seek parliament approval on leaving without a deal if Britain comes within a week of doing so. These amendments will pave way for voting on Wednesday in order to give meaningful Brexit direction ahead.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisThe pair needs a successful break of 1.3240 in order to aim for 1.3310 and 1.3380 otherwise 1.3170 and 50-day SMA near 1.3080 can keep limiting the quote’s immediate downside.

The Guardian news is reporting that the government has issued this response to the defeat on Letwin. A spokesman for the Brexit department said: It

The Guardian news is reporting that the government has issued this response to the defeat on Letwin. A spokesman for the Brexit department said: It is disappointing to see this amendment pass, as the government made a clear commitment to provide a process to find a majority in parliament for a way forward this week. This amendment instead upends the balance between our democratic institutions and sets a dangerous, unpredictable precedent for the future. While it is now up to parliament to set out next steps in respect of this amendment, the government will continue to call for realism – any options considered must be deliverable in negotiations with the EU. Parliament should take account of how long these negotiations would take, and if they’d require a longer extension which would mean holding European parliamentary elections.Brexit voting underway: Letwin Amendment Yes 329 vs No 302

Amendment F calls on the govt to seek parliament's approval on leaving without a deal if Britain comes within a week of doing so - essentially designe

Amendment F calls on the govt to seek parliament's approval on leaving without a deal if Britain comes within a week of doing so - essentially designed to block a no deal Brexit. Here is the full text:At end, add “and orders that, in the event that the UK comes within seven calendar days of leaving the European Union without a deal, the government must make arrangements within two sitting days, or if this house has been adjourned for more than four days to arrange for the House to be recalled under standing order no. 13 (Earlier meeting of the House in certain circumstances) for this purpose, for a minister of the crown to move a motion on whether this house approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal and on whether the UK government should be required to request an extension of the period in article 50(3) of the treaty on European Union in order to avoid a no-deal Brexit and to give time for parliament to determine a different approach.”Result: Yes 311 No 314 Extra reading:Brexit voting underway: Letwin Amendment Yes 329 vs No 302UK PM May: Alternative is to pursue different form of Brexit or a second referendumUK PM May: There is not support in the House to hold third vote on deal 

Three amendments to May's plan are being voted upon: Amendment A, also known as the Letwin amendment, which seeks to take control of parliament and

Three amendments to May's plan are being voted upon: Amendment A, also known as the Letwin amendment, which seeks to take control of parliament and hold indicative votes on Brexit options. Amendment D calls on the gov't to give parliament time to find a majority for a different approach on Brexit. Amendment F calls on the govt to seek parliaments approval on leaving without a deal if Britain comes within a week of doing so. The first vote, on the Letwin amendment, has been passed: Yes 329 to the No 302.Extra reading:UK PM May: Alternative is to pursue different form of Brexit or a second referendumUK PM May: There is not support in the House to hold third vote on deal

DXY daily chart The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). DXY 4-hour chart DXY is b

DXY daily chartThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading in a bull trend above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
DXY 4-hour chartDXY is bouncing from 95.80 support.
DXY 30-minute chartDXY is trading above the 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the short-term.96.80, 97.00 and 97.40 can become the next resistances to the upside.Support is at 96.30, 96.10 and 95.90 level.
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