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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

USD/INR remains under pressure as US-China tussle dominates Asia Given the US-China jitters’ negative impact on Asian markets, not to forget the over

USD/INR: Risk-off may weigh over Indian Rupee The Indian Rupee (INR) may come under pressure on Wednesday, courtesy of the renewed US-China political tensions and the resulting risk-off tone in the equity markets. The downside, however, may be capped by the Indian government's focus on fiscal prudence. Read more... Indian Rupee Technical Levels USD/INR remains under pressure as US-China tussle dominates Asia Given the US-China jitters’ negative impact on Asian markets, not to forget the overall risk-tone, the USD/INR pair extends the previous day’s downpour to 71.70 while heading into the European open on Wednesday. The quote recently came under pressure as negotiators from the United States (US) and China keep jostling over the trade with the latest roadblock being tariff reversal. The US President Donald Trump keeps using threats to push China towards a deal. Read more... USD/INR Technical Analysis  

The GBP/USD pair extended this week's pullback from the vicinity of the key 1.30 psychological mark and remained under some selling pressure for the s

The GBP/USD pair extended its recent pullback from the 1.30 neighbourhood.Sustained weakness below 100-hour SMA was seen as a key trigger for bears.The GBP/USD pair extended this week's pullback from the vicinity of the key 1.30 psychological mark and remained under some selling pressure for the second consecutive session on Wednesday.
 
The pair finally broke down of its late-Asian session consolidative trading range and dropped to fresh weekly lows in the last hour, with bulls failing to defend the 1.2900 round-figure mark.
 
A sustained break below 100-hour SMA was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and dragged the pair further below 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 1.2769-1.2986 last week’s positive move.
 
Meanwhile, oscillators on hourly charts have been drifting lower but held in the bullish territory on the daily chart and warrant some caution before placing any aggressive directional bets.
 
Hence, any subsequent slide is likely to find some support near the 1.2875 region (50% Fibo.), which if broken will set the stage for a sharp drop towards mid-1.2800s (61.8% Fibo.).
 
On the flip side, any attempted bounce might confront some supply near the 100-hour SMA, currently near the 1.2910 region, and should remain capped near the 1.2930-35 region (23.6% Fibo.). GBP/USD 1-hourly chart  

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its Euro area Financial Stability Review, with the key highlights noted below. Top stability risks include

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its Euro area Financial Stability Review, with the key highlights noted below. Top stability risks include weak bank profitability, increased risk-taking among shadow banks. Search for yields across shadow banking may exacerbate the build-up of vulnerabilities. Residential real estate overvaluation exceeds 7%; commercial real estate price growth cooling but valuations still stretched. Public debt positions manageable currently, despite deteriorating macroeconomic environment. The shared currency pays little heed to the ECB report, as EUR/USD tests the key 1.1050 support amid broad-based US dollar strength induced by risk-aversion, in response to the latest US-China political woes.  

Greece Current Account (YoY): €0.887B (September) vs previous €1.874B

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, Cable’s upside remains limited by the key handle at 1.30 the figure

In view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, Cable’s upside remains limited by the key handle at 1.30 the figure. Key Quotes “GBP/USD remains capped by the psychological resistance at 1.3000 and the recent high at 1.3013. Directly above here we have the 200 week ma at 1.3116, the 50% retracement of the move down from 2018 at 1.3167, the 5 year downtrend at 1.3185 and the 1.3187 May high and these remain our short term targets, this is TOUGH resistance and we look for the market to fail here. Above here lies 1.3382 the 2019 high”. “It remains immediately bid above the 1.2764/ 23.6% retracement. Failure at 1.2764 will see a slide to the 200 day ma at 1.2703. This guards 1.2582 (September high). Below 1.2582 lies the 1.2466 uptrend. The uptrend guards 1.2196/94”.

FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested that extra selling pressure in the Aussie Dollar appears to have run out of steam. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We

FX Strategists at UOB Group suggested that extra selling pressure in the Aussie Dollar appears to have run out of steam. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We expected AUD to “trade sideways between 0.6785 and 0.6820” yesterday. However, AUD staged a surprisingly robust recovery after dipping to 0.6785 (high of 0.6835 during NY hours). While the rapid rebound appears to be running ahead of itself, there is scope for AUD to strengthen further. That said, any advance is viewed as a higher trading range of 0.6800/0.6845 (a sustained rise beyond 0.6845 is not expected for now)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “When AUD plummeted early last Thursday (14 Nov, spot at 0.6810), we highlighted the downside risk even though we held the view that “any AUD weakness is likely limited to 0.6765”. When AUD extended its decline to 0.6770, we indicated on Friday (15 Nov, spot at 0.6785) “longer-term conditions are still rather oversold and the prospect for a sustained decline below 0.6765 is still not that high”. The relatively strong rebound in AUD yesterday (0.6829, +0.30%) reinforces our view. From here, the odds for further AUD weakness have diminished but only a break of 0.6845 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would suggest the current weakness has stabilized”.

The single currency is now under renewed downside pressure and drags EUR/USD to fresh 2-day lows in the 1.1060 region. EUR/USD weaker on trade concern

EUR/USD comes under pressure and tests 1.1060.The 1.1080/90 band remains a key barrier.German Producer Prices surprised to the downside.The single currency is now under renewed downside pressure and drags EUR/USD to fresh 2-day lows in the 1.1060 region. EUR/USD weaker on trade concerns, looks to FOMC The pair is interrupting a 4-day positive streak on Wednesday in response to the pick-up in the demand for the greenback, increasing risk off sentiment and the broad-based decline in bond yields both in the US and in the Old Continent. In the meantime, another failed attempt to break above the 1.1080/90 band has motivated sellers to return to the markets and collaborate with the ongoing knee-jerk. In the docket, German Producer Prices missed consensus earlier in the day after contracting at a monthly 0.2% during October and 0.6% from a year earlier. Later in the day, the FOMC are expected to grab all the attention. What to look for around EUR Spot met strong resistance in the 1.1080/90 band for the time being while it keeps looking to USD-dynamics and headlines from the US-China trade front for direction. On the macro view, the outlook in Euroland remains fragile and does nothing but justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance by the ECB and the bearish view on the single currency in the medium term at least. In this regard, all the looks will be upon the release of November’s preliminary PMIs later in the week. EUR/USD levels to watch At the moment, the pair is losing 0.17% at 1.1059 and a breach of 1.0989 (monthly low Nov.14) would target 1.0925 (low Sep.3) en route to 1.0879 (2019 low Oct.1). On the upside, the initial barrier emerges at 1.1089 (high Nov.18) followed by 1.1174 (200-day SMA) and finally 1.1179 (monthly high Oct.21).

The USD/CAD pair jumped to over one-month tops during the early European session on Wednesday, with bulls now looking to extend the momentum further b

US-China trade concerns benefitted the USD’s safe-haven status.Some follow-through weakness in oil prices undermined the loonie.Bulls eyeing a move beyond 1.3300 handle ahead of FOMC minutes.The USD/CAD pair jumped to over one-month tops during the early European session on Wednesday, with bulls now looking to extend the momentum further beyond the 1.3300 handle.
 
The pair added to the previous session's strong intraday upsurge of nearly 120 pips and continued gaining traction for the second consecutive session on Wednesday. A combination of supporting factors fueled the positive momentum and assisted the pair to finally move past the very important 200-day SMA resistance. Risk-off mood, weaker oil prices supportive of the positive move The US President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned of more tariffs if negotiations with China failed and triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade. The global flight to safety was seen benefitting the US dollar's perceived safe-haven status against its Canadian counterpart and provided a goodish lift to the major.
 
Against the backdrop of intensifying US-China trade tensions, a sharp rise in the US inventories led to some follow-through weakness in crude oil prices, which undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency loonie and remained supportive of the pair's ongoing positive momentum to the highest level since October 11.
 
Adding to this, possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered on a sustained move beyond a technically significant moving average (200-DMA) seemed to have further collaborated towards accelerating the momentum through the early European session on Wednesday.
 
Moving ahead, Wednesday's important release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, due later during the US trading session, will now play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and contribute towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch  

XAU/USD struggles to gain altitude despite renewed US-China political tensions Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, is having a tough time posting gains

Gold technical analysis: $1,475 continues to cap upside The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,473 per Oz, having hit a high of $1,475.25 an hour ago. Notably, $1,475 capped upside on Monday, Tuesday and also on Nov. 14.  As a result, it is the level to beat for the bulls. A convincing break higher will likely yield a quick move to $1,480-$1,482. Read more... XAU/USD struggles to gain altitude despite renewed US-China political tensions Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, is having a tough time posting gains despite the renewed political tensions between the US and China. The yellow metal remains trapped in a narrow range of $1,470 to $1,475 for the eighth straight hour. Read more… Gold Technical levels

Sweden Capacity Utilization increased to 0.5% in 3Q from previous 0%

Gold edged higher through the early European session on Wednesday and climbed to near two-week tops, just above the $1475 region in the last hour. The

US-China trade uncertainty benefitted the commodity’s safe-haven status.A sharp fall in the US bond yields remained supportive of the positive move.Bulls might wait for a move beyond 100-DMA hurdle, near the $1480 region.Gold edged higher through the early European session on Wednesday and climbed to near two-week tops, just above the $1475 region in the last hour.
 
The precious metal added to its recent recovery move from three-month lows and continued benefitting from reviving safe-haven demand, all against the backdrop of the latest developments on the US-China trade front. Focus remains on trade developments The US President Donald Trump on Tuesday noted that China was "moving along," but any deal would need to be one he liked and also warned of more tariffs on China if the ongoing trade negotiations failed.
 
Adding to this, the US Senate unanimously passed a bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong, which was further seen fueling tension between the negotiating parties and dented investors' appetite for riskier assets.
 
The global flight to safety was further reinforced by a sharp pullback in the US Treasury bond yields, which fell to a fresh 2-1/2 week lows in the last hour and provided an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.
 
The uptick, however, is likely to remain limited, rather fizzle out near 100-day SMA resistance – around the $1480-81 region – as the focus now shifts to the release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes.
 
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the commodity might have bottomed out and positioning for any further appreciating move back towards the key $1500 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at 0% below forecasts (0.2%) in October

The Indian Rupee stalled its recovery from three-day lows vs, the US dollar, as the USD/INR bears take a breather near 71.75 region, at the press time

Rupee strengthens on ongoing foreign inflows.USD/INR losses to be capped by US-China trade/ political risks.Markets await FOMC minutes for fresh directives. The Indian Rupee stalled its recovery from three-day lows vs, the US dollar, as the USD/INR bears take a breather near 71.75 region, at the press time. The spot hit a low of 71.65 last hour after the Indian currency was boosted on the extended foreign inflows, in the wake of ArcelorMittal's takeover of Essar Steel. However, the downside in USD/INR remains cushioned by the increased safe-haven demand for the US dollar across its main competitors amid renewed US-China tensions led risk-aversion. Apart from the ongoing US-China trade uncertainty, fresh trouble brewed between both the countries on the political front after the US Senate approved the Hong Kong human rights bill late-Tuesday. Beijing threatened to retaliate against the US political meddling into Chinese domestic affairs. Looking ahead, the pair will remain at the mercy of the USD price-action and risk trends amid US-China political woes and ahead of the key FOMC Oct meeting’s minutes that could throw fresh light on the US interest rates outlook amid growing overseas risks. USD/INR Levels to watch    

South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (3.9%) in October: Actual (3.7%)

Hu tweeted out: “Few Chinese believe that China and the US can reach a deal soon. Given current poor China policy of the US, people tend to believe th

 Hu Xijin, the Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times, tweeted out last minutes: “Few Chinese believe that China and the US can reach a deal soon. Given current poor China policy of the US, people tend to believe the significance of a trade deal, if reached, will be limited. China wants a deal but is prepared for the worst-case scenario, a prolonged trade war.” His comments come after US President Trump said on Tuesday that Trump China would have to make a deal he likes and threatened to raise tariffs further if no trade deal is reached with China.US Pres. Trump: Will just raise tariffs even higher if US doesn't make a deal with China

The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip to near one-week lows and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, just above mid-108.0

Reviving safe-haven demand benefitted the JPY and exerted some follow-through pressure.A modest USD rebound helped bounce off lows ahead of the latest FOMC meeting minutes.A sustained move beyond 109.00 handle (200-DMA) needed to confirm near-term bullish bias.  The USD/JPY pair reversed an early dip to near one-week lows and is currently placed near the top end of its daily trading range, just above mid-108.00s.
 
The pair extended this week's pullback from levels just above the 109.00 handle and witnessed some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Wednesday amid persistent US-China trade uncertainty, which was seen benefitting the Japanese yen's perceived safe-haven status. Trade developments, FOMC minutes in focus In the latest trade-related development, the US President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned of more tariffs on China if negotiations failed. Adding to this, the US Senate passed a bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong and might further fuel tension between the negotiating parties.
 
The lack of clarity on the US-China trade talks triggered a fresh wave of the global risk-aversion trade, which was further reinforced by a sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields and further collaborated to the pair's slide, albeit a modest US dollar rebound helped limit any deeper losses.
 
Heading into Wednesday's key event risk, the release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, traders also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets, rather preferred to lighten the bearish bets and led to the pair's modest intraday recovery of around 20 pips from daily lows.
 
It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to capitalize on the attempted bounce or continues with its struggle to make it through the very important 200-day SMA barrier, near the 109.00 handle, which should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. Technical levels to watch  

The AUD/USD pair edged lower through the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit has still managed to hold its neck above the 0.6800 round-figure mark. The

US-China trade uncertainty exerted some fresh pressure on the China-proxy aussie.Deteriorating global risk sentiment further collaborated to the pair’s weaker tone.Bulls managed to defend the 0.6800 handle ahead of the release of FOMC minutes.The AUD/USD pair edged lower through the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit has still managed to hold its neck above the 0.6800 round-figure mark.
 
The pair failed to capitalize on the previous session's goodish intraday rally of around 50 pips, rather met with some fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday amid the lack of clarity on the US-China trade talks. Focus on trade developments, FOMC minutes In the latest trade-related development, the US President Donald Trump on Tuesday noted that China was "moving along," but any deal would need to be one he liked and warned of more tariffs if negotiations failed.
 
Adding to this, the US Senate unanimously passed a bill aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong, which might further fuel tension between the world's two largest economies and weighed on the China-proxy aussie.
 
The uncertainty weighed on investors' sentiment and led to a fresh wave of risk-aversion trade, which further benefitted the US dollar's perceived safe-haven status against its Australian counterpart and collaborated to the weaker tone.
 
Meanwhile, the downside is likely to remain limited as traders might refrain from placing any aggressive bets and prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the release of the latest FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes. Technical levels to watch  

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1050, looking for a new direction as US-Sino tensions rise around the Senate's bill supporting Hong Kong protesters. How is

EUR/USD is trading above 1.1050, looking for a new direction as US-Sino tensions rise around the Senate's bill supporting Hong Kong protesters. How is it positioned on the chart? The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that EUR/USD is capped around 1.1080, which is a dense cluster including the Simple Moving Average 10-1h, the Bollinger Band 1h-Middle, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the SMA 5-4h, the Pivot Point one-week Resistance 1, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-day, the BB 1h-Upper, and the previous daily high.  Further above, the upside target is 1.1178, which is the convergence of the BB 1d-Upper, the SMA 200-1d, and the previous monthly high.  Below, support awaits at 1.1045, which is the confluence of the PP 1d-S3, the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week, the SMA 50-1d, the SMA 5-1d, the Fibonacci 161.8% one-day, and the SMA 100-1h.  Lower, 1.0965 is the meeting point between the Pivot Point one-month Support 1 and the PP 1w-S2.  Here is how it looks on the tool: Confluence Detector The Confluence Detector finds exciting opportunities using Technical Confluences. The TC is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. Knowing where these congestion points are located is very useful for the trader, and can be used as a basis for different strategies. This tool assigns a certain amount of “weight” to each indicator, and this “weight” can influence adjacents price levels. These weightings mean that one price level without any indicator or moving average but under the influence of two “strongly weighted” levels accumulate more resistance than their neighbors. In these cases, the tool signals resistance in apparently empty areas. Learn more about Technical Confluence

China’s ForeignMin: US' Hong Kong bill neglects facts and truths

China’s ForeignMin: US' Hong Kong bill neglects facts and truths

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the pair needs to surpass this area to allow a potential test of

According to Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, the pair needs to surpass this area to allow a potential test of 1.1180. Key Quotes “EUR/USD continues to recover off the 61.8% retracement at 1.0994 and we have seen a recovery to the 55 day ma at 1.1091. We will need to regain this for a viable retest of the 1.1180 recent high (favoured). While capped by the 55 day ma, the market is regarded as under pressure and capable of extending the decline to the next Fibonacci support at 1.0943”. “Above 1.1180 will target the 1.1262 top of the channel and the 1.1359 200 week ma”.

The Danske Bank analysts highlight the key event risks lined up for release in the day ahead. Key Quotes: “Following a few quiet days on the data fron

The Danske Bank analysts highlight the key event risks lined up for release in the day ahead. Key Quotes: “Following a few quiet days on the data front, the Riksbank is set to present its Financial Stability report today. This will most likely contain the usual messages about risks associated with household indebtedness, as well as banks' funding and appropriate capital buffers. We expect no major news in today's report. The ECB will also present its Financial Stability report today and chief economist Lane will speak. In the US, FOMC meeting minutes are due for release. At the October meeting, the Fed cut its target range by 25bp to 1.50-1.75% as expected, but it seems that the Fed now wants to stay on hold to monitor how things play out. As there is a clear division in the committee, it will be interesting to see if the minutes will give us any information on the different stances within the Fed. We believe that the Fed will deliver one more cut in three to six months, as we still believe the US economy is fragile.”  

Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at -0.6% below forecasts (-0.4%) in October

Germany Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (0%) in October

FX option expiries for Nov 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 760m 1.1185 588m - GBP/USD: GB

FX option expiries for Nov 20 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1000 760m 1.1185 588m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2800 272m 1.2890 250m 1.2900 418m 1.2975 240m 1.2985 239m 1.3000 1.3bn 1.3100 481m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.00 410m 108.50 626m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6850 527m  - USD/CAD: USD amounts  1.3200 1.1bn  1.3230 630m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts  0.6410 281m

Open interest in JPY futures markets reversed two consecutive pullbacks and increased by 613 contracts on Tuesday according to flash data from CME Gro

Open interest in JPY futures markets reversed two consecutive pullbacks and increased by 613 contracts on Tuesday according to flash data from CME Group. On the other hand, volume extended the choppy performance and dropped by around 14.1K contracts. USD/JPY does not rule out extra declinesUSD/JPY keeps grinding lower on Wednesday, although the activity in both open interest and volume remains inconclusive and opens the door for some consolidation in the short-term horizon. However, extra tensions on the US-China trade front should favour a move to lower levels.

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offers their quick reaction to the Malaysian inflation data released earlier this Wednesday.

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offers their quick reaction to the Malaysian inflation data released earlier this Wednesday. Key Quotes: “Malaysia’s inflation remained unchanged at 1.1% y/y in October. On balance, demand side inflationary pressures have been benign and our forecast for higher inflation next year primarily reflects policy changes. Considering the evolving trajectory for growth and inflation, our base case is still for a 25bp cut in the policy rate next year. It is, however, conceivable that Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) may choose to preserve its policy space after the recent cut in the statutory reserve requirement (SRR).”

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 20: Trade: The US Senate has passed a law supporting pro-Democracy protests in Hong Kong, aggrava

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, November 20:Trade: The US Senate has passed a law supporting pro-Democracy protests in Hong Kong, aggravating relations with China and weighing on sentiment. Beijing has summoned the US ambassador and called on the US to refrain from interfering. Commodity currencies are on the back foot. On the other hand, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has expressed optimism in getting a deal done with China. UK Elections: Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn have clashed in a televised debate which ended in a draw according to a snap poll following the event. GBP/USD has been falling toward 1.29 as Corbyn's satisfactory performance in comparison to his low approval rating is seen as helping him. Recent surveys have shown Johnson's Conservatives in the lead, markets preferred outcome. Fresh post-debate polls will be of interest.Fed: The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are set to shed to light on the late October meeting when the bank cut rates but signaled a pause. Markets are looking for hints about the hawk-dove divide within the world's most powerful central bank. See FOMC Minutes Preview: Reinforcing the rate pauseEUR/USD is consolidating below 1.10 as members of the European Central Bank continue speaking out. Phillip Lane, the bank's main economist, reiterated the ECB's view that no recession is on the horizonCanadian inflation figures are due out today and set to show an increase in monthly prices and stable core inflation.Cryptocurrencies are seeking to find a bottom after long days of declines. Bitcoin has bounced off $8,000. See Bitcoin Falls to Fresh Lows Amid Google Push into Financial Services.

In light of preliminary data from CME Group for GBP futures markets, investors scaled back their open interest positions by just 428 contracts on Tues

In light of preliminary data from CME Group for GBP futures markets, investors scaled back their open interest positions by just 428 contracts on Tuesday and volume retreated by almost 9.8K contracts after three consecutive daily builds. GBP/USD: a test of 1.30 remains on the tableCable is correcting lower for the second consecutive session on Wednesday. Tuesday’s retracement was on the back of declining open interest and volume, which should leave the downside somewhat limited in the short-term. That said, the 1.2875/69 band offers interim contention. In this area of support coincide the 21-day and the 10-day SMAs.

Further comments are hitting the wires from the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane delivered in an interview with La Repubblica. Creatio

Further comments are hitting the wires from the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Lane delivered in an interview with La Repubblica. Creation of ESM was "act of solidarity", risky but successful. ECB does not expect recession in the eurozone where economy is growing less than hoped. Sees Eurozone economic recovery in next year or two. Current inflation rate at 1% is "unsatisfactory", trusts that ECB’s monetary stimulus will allow it to grow. Low interest rates are opportunity for Eurozone countries to cut debt not for new expenses or tax cuts. There are margins for negotiations to complete banking union and find a compromise.

Cable’s view remains constructive, although a test of tops in the 1.3010 region seems unlikely in the near-term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group

Cable’s view remains constructive, although a test of tops in the 1.3010 region seems unlikely in the near-term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday the “combination of lackluster momentum and overbought conditions suggest 1.2985 could be a short-term top”. We added, “GBP is more likely to consolidate and trade sideways within a1.2915/1.2975 range”. GBP subsequently slipped from an Asian hours high of 1.2970 to a low of 1.2911 during NY session. The underlying tone has weakened and from here, the risk is tilted to the downside towards 1.2900. The next support at 1.2875 is likely ‘safe’ for today. Resistance is at 1.2950 followed by 1.2975”. Next 1-3 weeks: “After GBP popped to 1.2985 on Monday, we highlighted yesterday (19 Nov, spot at 1.2950) that “while upward momentum has picked up, the prospect for GBP to move above last month’s peak at 1.3012 is still not that high”. The retreat in GBP yesterday (1.2925, -0.20%) reinforces our view but only a break of 1.2875 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate the current mild upward pressure has eased. Looking forward, if GBP were to move below 1.2875, it could trade sideways for a period”.

CME Group’s advanced data for EUR futures markets noted open interest resumed the upside after Monday’s pullback and rose by around 2.7K contracts on

CME Group’s advanced data for EUR futures markets noted open interest resumed the upside after Monday’s pullback and rose by around 2.7K contracts on Tuesday. On the other hand, volume shrunk for the second session in a row, now by around 22.9K contracts. EUR/USD faces strong resistance around 1.1080/90 The up move in EUR/USD keeps struggling to surpass the area of recent tops in the 1.1080/90 region. Unclear direction in both open interest and volume plus Tuesday’s ‘inside day’ candle in spot are all hinting at the likelihood that further consolidation remains on the cards although a move higher should not be ruled out either.

The US has turned HK into the focus of China-US competition. It's all the people in Hong Kong, including foreigners and foreign companies that suffer.

The US has turned HK into the focus of China-US competition. It's all the people in Hong Kong, including foreigners and foreign companies that suffer. The mainland only feels limited pain. Beijing has no reason to back off on issue of sovereignty, and let HK be at US' disposal. More to come …

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the short-term outlook on EUR/USD still remains positive. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for EUR yesterday was i

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the short-term outlook on EUR/USD still remains positive. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for EUR yesterday was it “could retest 1.1090 but any advance is viewed as part of a higher 1.1050/1.1090 range”. However, EUR traded quietly and within a narrow range of 1.1061/1.1083. The underlying tone still appears to be positive and for today, EUR could edge higher but the strong 1.1115 level is not likely to come into the picture (minor resistance is at 1.1100). Support is at 1.1060 followed by 1.1040”. Next 1-3 weeks: “EUR traded in a tight 22 pips range yesterday (between 1.1061 and 1.1083), the second smallest 1-day range so far this year. The quiet price action offers no fresh clues and we continue to hold on to the same view from Monday (18 Nov, spot at 1.1055). The current price action is still viewed as part of a 1.1010/1.1115 sideway-trading range even though the near-term bias is on the upside. Looking forward, if EUR were to crack 1.1115, the focus would shift to 1.1150. All in, the current mild upward pressure is expected to remain intact unless EUR drops back below 1.1040 within these few days”.

Fresh US-China political tensions cropped up after the US Senate approved the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 and China threatened to

Fresh US-China political tensions cropped up after the US Senate approved the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 and China threatened to retaliate against the US interference in its internal affairs. The investor sentiment got heavily hit by the latest Chinese angst as it could weigh negatively on the US-China trade talks. The safe-havens such as the JPY, US dollar and Gold advanced at the expensive of the risk/ higher-yielding assets such as Treasury yields, global equities and Antipodeans. Both the Aussie and the Kiwi felt the heat of the mounting US-Sino trade and political risks. AUD/USD traded in the red but held above the 0.68 handle while NZD/USD fell about -0.15% to near 0.6415 levels. Meanwhile, USD/JPY moved off lows but the recovery lacked follow-through around mid-108s amid risk-aversion. USD/CAD benefited from a broadly firmer US dollar and subdued oil prices, as markets eyed the Canadian inflation data. Heading into the European open, both the EUR/USD pair and Cable were under pressure. The pound suffered from ITV’s political debate between Johnson and Corbyn that ended on a poor note. Main Topics in Asia UK election debate: Common ground that UK austerity is over – Rabobank Australian Leading Index keep signaling weak economic momentum carrying into 2020 – Westpac US Senate approves Hong Kong human rights bill, sends to House of Representatives - RTRS US Commerce Sec Ross: I am optimistic we can get something done on China US 10-year Treasury yield hits two-week low Fitch affirms China at 'A+'; outlook Stable China's ForeignMin reiterates threat to retaliate against US bill on Hong Kong China’s ForeignMin: Logged stern representations with the US over Senate action on Hong Kong The PBoC prime loan rate decisions: Cut by 5 basis points for 1 and 5 year rates (CNY lower) Japanese ruling coalition are seeking JPY 10 tln for the extra budget - Nikkei NZD bullish: BNZ ups Fonterra’s milk payment forecast PBOC’s Yi: PBOC to continue to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, increase credit support Japan’s Nishimura: No change to view that economy is recovering Sources: China tariff demands may expand 'phase one' trade deal significantly - Reuters USD/INR remains under pressure as US-China tussle dominates Asia Key Focus Ahead Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI), due at 0700 GMT, will kick-off a quiet European calendar, as the only release of note remains the European Union (EU) Financial Stability Review at 0900 GMT. The UK docket continues to remain a dry one so far this week, as the UK political updates take over ahead of the December 12 elections. In the NA session, the main event risk remains the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Oct meeting’s minutes due at 1900 GMT, which will be closely followed for any hints on a Dec rate cut and 2020 US interest rates outlook. Ahead of the Fed event, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will headline at 1330 GMT. Also, the focus will be on the US weekly Crude Stock data due to be published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at 1530 GMT and the European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Lane’s speech scheduled at 1700 GMT. Meanwhile, the overall market sentiment will continue to remain at the mercy of the US-China trade and political developments at least until the FOMC minutes release. EUR/USD: Inside bar candle makes today's close pivotal, focus on Fed minutes EUR/USD created an inside bar candlestick pattern on Tuesday, making today's close pivotal.  A close above Tuesday's high would imply a continuation of the rally from 1.0989.  The focus is on the FOMC’s view on the risks to the outlook. GBP/USD: Sluggish above 1.2900 as UK PM Johnson struggles to top the polls GBP/USD declines for the second consecutive day amid doubts over the Tory leader’s public favor after the ITV debate. Broad USD strength offers additional weakness to the pair. FOMC minutes, trade/political headlines in focus. Silver Could Follow the Bearish Way of Gold Silver prices moved mostly upward in the intraday session; however, Gold fell, likely looking for a new monthly low. In this post, we'll review our arguments for anticipating further declines in Silver. FOMC Minutes October 29-30 Preview: Reinforcing the rate pause October meeting cut fed funds rate 0.25%, the third decrease this year. Base rate at a 1.50%-1.75% target range. Fed policy moved to neutral awaiting data confirmation.  

The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is adding to Tuesday’s gains in the 97.90 region. US Dollar Index focused on trade and FOMC

DXY moves higher to levels just below the 98.00 handle.US 10-year yields drop to 2-week lows around 1.75%.FOMC minutes will be the salient event later today.The greenback, when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is adding to Tuesday’s gains in the 97.90 region. US Dollar Index focused on trade and FOMC The index has managed to regain some poise after some decent support appears to have emerged in the 97.70/65 band. The immediate target is now at the 98.00 handle amidst increased and renewed US-China trade concerns. Furthermore, fresh trade jitters have forced US 10-year yields to keep losing ground and recede to the 1.75% region, or 2-week lows, against a broad-based shift to the safe haven universe. In the docket, MBA Mortgage Applications are due ahead of the key FOMC minutes, expected in the European evening. What to look for around USD The index seems to have met solid contention in the 97.70 region for the time being. In the meantime, headlines from the US-China trade dispute are expected to remain as the exclusive driver when comes to price action in the global markets, while investors keep monitoring US fundamentals amidst the ‘wait-and-see’ stance from the Federal Reserve and the steepening of the 2y-10y yield curve seen as of late. Moving to US politics, markets keep ignoring the Trump’s impeachment developments, while the impact on the FX space remains muted. On the broader view, however, the outlook on the greenback still looks constructive on the back of the Fed’s ‘wait-and-see’ mode vs. the dovish stance from its G10 peers, the dollar’s safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’. US Dollar Index relevant levels At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.08% at 97.90 and a breakout of 98.45 (monthly high Nov.13) would open the door to 99.25 (high Oct.8) and then 99.67 (2019 high Oct.1). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 97.68 (monthly low Nov.18) seconded by 97.56 (200-day SMA) and finally 97.11 (monthly low Nov.1).

With the USD/CHF pair’s sustained trading below the descending trend line stretched since November 08, a short-term bullish formation appears on the chart.

USD/CHF follows an eight-day-old falling trend line that restricts pair’s immediate upside.Confirmation of the bullish technical pattern can challenge the monthly top.With the USD/CHF pair’s sustained trading below the descending trend line stretched since November 08, a short-term bullish formation appears on the hourly (H1) chart. Though, the quote declines to 0.9900 while heading into the European open on Wednesday. Bearish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) increases the odds for the pair’s further declines to 0.9870 and then to the monthly bottom around 0.9850. Though, October low of 0.9837 holds the keys to pair’s drop to 0.9800 round-figure. Alternatively, a sustained break of 0.9915 will confirm the bullish chart pattern and trigger fresh run-up to a theoretical target around 1.0015. However, November 12 high around 0.9965, followed by the monthly top close to 0.9980, can entertain buyers during the rise. USD/CHF hourly chart Trend: Bearish  

ECB chief economist, Philip Lane, via La Repubblica, ECB isn't at limit of monetary policy. Lower debt cost should be used to cut debt.

La Repubblica reports the latest comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane, with the key headlines found below. We don't see a recession in the Euro area. ECB isn't at limit of monetary policy. Lower debt cost should be used to cut debt.

Given the US-China jitters’ negative impact on Asian markets, not to forget the overall risk-tone, the USD/INR pair extends the previous day’s downpour.

USD/INR stays on the back foot as US-China headlines, concerning Hong Kong, keep the risk-tone heavy.Broad USD strength, Fed’s optimism also weigh on the pair.FOMC minutes, trade headlines will be observed to question a weeklong triangle.Given the US-China jitters’ negative impact on Asian markets, not to forget the overall risk-tone, the USD/INR pair extends the previous day’s downpour to 71.70 while heading into the European open on Wednesday. The quote recently came under pressure as negotiators from the United States (US) and China keep jostling over the trade with the latest roadblock being tariff reversal. The US President Donald Trump keeps using threats to push China towards a deal. Also deteriorating the sentiment is the on-going protests in Hong Kong. While geopolitical tension in Asian can be considered as an outcome of the weeklong demonstration, the US passing of a bill to support the protesters, followed by a harsh response from Hong Kong and China, seems to weigh on odds of a successful deal between the world’s top two economies. Additionally, doubts over the Indian economic growth, as recently covered by Moody’s, also drag the pair downwards off-late. On the contrary, another rate cut from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), as well as the Indian government’s readiness to sustain 3.3% of fiscal deficit, contradicts the recent weakness. While a light economic calendar could keep the market’s focus on the trade/political headlines, minute of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting will entertain the traders afterward. After fresh odds of monetary policy normalization at the US Federal Reserve (Fed), recent comments from the central bank decision-makers have been quite upbeat. As a result, investors will look for signs of any upbeat statements to extend the US dollar (USD) strength. Technical Analysis A one-week-old triangle between 71.58 and 72.10 seems to limit the pair’s near-term moves.  

Fresh comments are crossing the wires again from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the US bill approval over the Hong Kong civil unrest. Key Quotes: Sum

Fresh comments are crossing the wires again from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the US bill approval over the Hong Kong civil unrest. Key Quotes: Summoned US representative in China. Logged stern representations with the US over Senate action on Hong Kong.

Given the recent decline in the UK PM’s public favorite status, the GBP/USD pair extends weakness as it trades around 1.2915.

GBP/USD declines for the second consecutive day amid doubts over the Tory leader’s public favor after the ITV debate.Broad USD strength offers additional weakness to the pair.FOMC minutes, trade/political headlines in the spotlight.Given the recent decline in the UK PM’s public favorite status, the GBP/USD pair extends weakness as it trades around 1.2915 while heading into the London open on Wednesday. The ITV debate between the Tory and the opposition Labour leaders showed less of a drama as both showed a calm attitude while sticking to party agendas of Brexit and second referendum respectively. However, the poll at the end of the debate surprised the cable traders as the UK PM Johnson got only 51% votes in favor while the opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn got 49% marks. Until now, major polls kept showing nearly 14 points of a difference with the Tory leader in the front position. Not only the recent polls at the end of the ITV’s head-to-head debate, doubts over the UK PM’s refrain from releasing the report of Russian meddling into the Brexit referendum and shelving the corporate tax cuts also portray challenges to the Tory leader. The pair reversed from monthly high on Tuesday as upbeat housing market data from the United States (US) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers John C. William’s sustained support for the current monetary policy pleased the greenback buyers. The US dollar (USD) extended its gains on Wednesday amid fresh risk-off followed by the US-China tussle over the Hong Kong bill. The risk-tone also weighs down amid on-going protests in Hong Kong and Israel. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields drop to 1.75% while the AUD/JPY pair, also considered as a risk measure, fails to extend the previous day’s gains. Moving on, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting will decorate the economic calendar while trade/political headlines could keep traders busy. “The minutes of the FOMC’s 29-30 October meeting are due. The major change at the October meeting was the move to a more reactionary stance – the FOMC will now “assess the appropriate path” whereas previously would “act as appropriate”. Given Chair Powell sees the US economy in “a good place”, of key interest in the minutes will be the FOMC’s view on the risks to the outlook,” says Westpac. Technical Analysis While 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.2880 holds the key to pair’s downpour towards monthly low near 1.2770, 1.3000 and October high surrounding 1.3015 could keep challenging buyers.  

The Rabobank research team is out with its take on the UK PM Johnson and Labour Party leader Corbyn debate that ended on a sour note. Key Quotes: “Fin

The Rabobank research team is out with its take on the UK PM Johnson and Labour Party leader Corbyn debate that ended on a sour note. Key Quotes: “Finally, the first televised UK election head-to-head debate between BoJo and Corbyn produced an outcome that saw one viewer respond sadly, “I wouldn’t buy a used car from either of them”. Indeed, the extremely rowdy TV audience, by UK standards, left the distinct impression the public see both men as being rear parts of a horse’s anatomy. The two disagreed on almost everything, including how to pronounce Epstein--Corbyn managing to sound either very ‘rootsy’, or uncomfortably anti-Semitic, given his unorthodox “EpSHtein” over the more usual confusion on whether it is “Epsteen”; even the royal family were in the firing line. However, there was common ground that UK austerity is over. In terms of changing voters’ minds, Corbyn had an exceptionally easy ride considering how radical some of Labour’s manifesto policies are, being free to focus on BoJo’s untrustworthiness and the NHS. Corbyn’s only major weakness, besides being accused of anti-Semitism, was Brexit, where there was still no commitment as to which way he would campaign in his proposed second referendum: BoJo pointed out the EU would hardly agree to a new deal with Labour if they don’t know if the government would back it in a subsequent plebiscite. However, BoJo himself came across like Hugh Grant on a particularly stuttery day (for example, just after he arrested back in 1995).”

Reuters quotes people familiar with the US-China talks, as saying that a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China could expand if US President

Reuters quotes people familiar with the US-China talks, as saying that a “phase one” trade deal between the US and China could expand if US President Trump yields into Beijing’s demands to roll back existing tariffs on Chinese goods.   More to come …

The TD Securities Analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) October meeting’s minutes due for release at

The TD Securities Analysts offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve (Fed) October meeting’s minutes due for release at 1900 GMT. Key Quotes: “We expect the FOMC minutes from the October meeting to elaborate on the Committee's decision to ease rates while also sending a firm signal to set the bar high for additional accommodation. We anticipate discussions to touch upon what "material reassessment" of the outlook would lead the FOMC to shift its policy stance. The minutes may also provide further insights into the Framework Review debate.”

In addition to WTI’s drop to a 13-day low, a broad risk aversion also propels the USD/CAD pair to the five-week high while flashing 1.3280 as a quote.

USD/CAD seesaws near the five-week high.Speculations that Russia will backtrack from production cuts, surprise build in API stockpiles triggered WTI’s drop.US-China trade tussle gains additional roadblock after the US Senate passed the Hong Kong protest bill.In addition to WTI’s drop to a 13-day low, a broad risk aversion also propels the USD/CAD pair to the five-week high while flashing 1.3280 as a quote during early Wednesday. Prices of oil dropped after a surprise build in weekly stockpile numbers from the American Petroleum Institute (API) followed Reuters’ report that Russia might not support further production cuts during the December 05 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) and allies. Elsewhere, the United States (US) and China kept struggling over phase one deal with the latest progress signaling the rollback of tariffs that were levied after the last deal rejection in May. Though, the US President Donald Trump kept on repeating threats on levy additional tariffs if China fails to sign a deal. Though, the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross conveyed optimism surrounding the progress in recent appearance. The latest on the US-China tussle over Hong Kong seems to trigger a broad weakness in the Commodity-linked currencies, like the Canadian dollar (CAD). The US Senate passed a bill to support Hong Kong protesters and oppose China against the usage of violence to suppress the demonstration. Even if the bill is yet to be through the House of Representatives, Chinese diplomats and the Hong Kong government jumped to criticize the US move. With this, the US 10-year treasury yields drop to a two-week low of 1.75% whereas Asian stocks are turn red. While risk sentiment can provide intermediate moves to the USD/CAD pair traders, October month inflation numbers and minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting will be the key to follow afterward. “TD looks for CPI inflation to recover to 2.0% y/y in October, up from 1.9% in September, with prices up 0.4% m/m (market: 1.9%, 0.3%, respectively). Part of the move is attributable to seasonal factors in telecom and apparel and while gasoline prices were unchanged in October, energy should exert a smaller drag on a year-ago basis. We also see modest downside risks to measures of core inflation owing to base-effects, but with the three currently averaging 2.07% y/y, this is unlikely to change the BoC's outlook. We expect the FOMC minutes from the October meeting to elaborate on the Committee's decision to ease rates while also sending a firm signal to set the bar high for additional accommodation. We anticipate discussions to touch upon what "material reassessment" of the outlook would lead the FOMC to shift its policy stance. The minutes may also provide further insights into the Framework Review debate,” says TD Securities ahead of the events. Technical Analysis USD/CAD buyers need to cross 1.3280/90 area including downward sloping trend line since May 30, coupled with 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of May-July declines, to aim for 1.3350/55 region comprising the previous month’s high. Alternatively, a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3225 can act as immediate support.  

EUR/USD's recovery rally has likely stalled and today's close will decide the next move, Tuesday's daily candle indicates. The pair's trading range of

EUR/USD created an inside bar candlestick pattern on Tuesday, making today's close pivotal. A close above Tuesday's high would imply a continuation of the rally from 1.0989. The focus is on the FOMC’s view on the risks to the outlook.Markets have already priced out Fed rate cuts all the way until June 2020.EUR/USD's recovery rally has likely stalled and today's close will decide the next move, Tuesday's daily candle indicates. The pair's trading range of 1.1084-1.1063 witnessed on Tuesday fell within Monday's high and low of 1.1090 and 1.1048. Essentially, the pair created an inside bar candlestick pattern on Tuesday, indicating the bounce from the Nov. 14 low of 1.0989 has run out of steam. A close above the inside bar's high of 1.1084 is needed to revive the recovery rally from 1.0989. Meanwhile, a close below the inside bar's low of 1.1063 would imply a bearish reversal. The US 10-year treasury yield has dropped to a two-week low of 1.763% and has shed over 20 basis points since topping out at 1.972% on Nov. 7. Further, the US-China political tensions are weighing over risky assets. Therefore, a bullish close looks likely. That said, the tide will likely turn in favor of the bears if the minutes of the FOMC’s 29-30 October meeting, due at 19:00 GMT, sound hawkish. The hawkish tone, however, needs to be strong, as the financial markets have written off interest rate cuts by the Fed all the way until June of 2020, as pointed out by popular analyst Mike "Mish" Shedlock. Westpac Institutional Bank's FX Daily note says: The major change at the October meeting was the move to a more reactionary stance – the FOMC will now “assess the appropriate path” whereas previously would “act as appropriate”. Given Chair Powell sees the US economy in “a good place”, of key interest in the minutes will be the FOMC’s view on the risks to the outlook. Technical levels  

According to Germany’s powerful BDI industry association’s Managing Director Joachim Lang, manufacturing production in Europe’s economic powerhouse is

According to Germany’s powerful BDI industry association’s Managing Director Joachim Lang, manufacturing production in Europe’s economic powerhouse is expected to decline by 4% this year. Additional Quotes:“German exports seen only edging up half a percentage point in 2019 due to weaker foreign demand.” “After six consecutive years of growth, Germany’s industrial sector is stuck in recession since the third quarter of 2018.” EUR/USD Technical Analysis: On the back foot below 2-week-old horizontal area

With its failure to cross a fortnight-long horizontal resistance area, EUR/USD declines to 1.1075 while heading into the European session on Wednesday.

EUR/USD extends a breakdown of a weeklong rising trend line.November 11 high, 1.1016/15 could appear next on the sellers’ radar.61.8% Fibonacci retracement adds to the resistance.With its failure to cross a fortnight-long horizontal resistance area, EUR/USD declines to 1.1075 while heading into the European session on Wednesday. The quote now aims to revisit November 11 high around 1.1045 ahead of revisiting the 1.1016/15 multiple support zone. If prices refrain from bouncing off 1.1015, the monthly low near 1.0990 will be on their radars prior to October bottom of 1.0880. On the upside break of the 1.1090/95 resistance area, buyers need to conquer the weeklong support-turned-resistance around 1.1100 while 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the current month downside, at 1.1105 could question the bulls afterward. In a case of pair’s successful rise beyond 1.1105, 1.1140 and monthly top close to 1.1180 will come back on the chart EUR/USD 4-hour chart Trend: Bearish  

Gold is again having a tough time scaling $1,475 in a convincing manner. The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,473 per Oz, having hit a high of

Gold is struggling to beat the newfound resistance at $1,475. The daily chart shows the recent bounce has run out of steamGold is again having a tough time scaling $1,475 in a convincing manner.  The yellow metal is currently trading at $1,473 per Oz, having hit a high of $1,475.25 an hour ago. Notably, $1,475 capped upside on Monday, Tuesday and also on Nov. 14.  As a result, it is the level to beat for the bulls. A convincing break higher will likely yield a quick move to $1,480-$1,482.  However, the two-way business or indecision signaled by Tuesday's candle indicates the bounce from the Nov. 12 low of $1,445 has run out of steam and a pullback, possibly to $1,464, could be in the offing.  Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, as he makes some comments on varied topics. Key Quotes: "I

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, as he makes some comments on varied topics. Key Quotes: "I hope the UK will join Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after leaving the EU." "I hope China will conduct economic activity within new, 21st century rules." "No change to view that economy is recovering."

The Indian Rupee (INR) may come under pressure on Wednesday, courtesy of the renewed US-China political tensions and the resulting risk-off tone in th

Rupee may be offered due to a risk-off tone in the global markets.The Indian government's focus on fiscal prudence may restrict losses in INR. USD/INR has established 71.44 as key support in the last three days. The Indian Rupee (INR) may come under pressure on Wednesday, courtesy of the renewed US-China political tensions and the resulting risk-off tone in the equity markets. The downside, however, may be capped by the Indian government's focus on fiscal prudence. The futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the AUD/JPY pair, a risk barometer, shed 30 pips in Asia after China's foreign ministry threatened retaliation over the decision by the US Senate to pass legislation aimed at protecting the human rights in Hong Kong. Further, President Trump on Tuesday said that the US will raise tariffs on China if the world's second-largest economy does not agree to a trade deal that he wants. The downside in the INR, however, could be restricted by the Indian government's decision to keep intact the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current financial year despite the slowdown in the economy. Also, China's rate cut may restrict losses in the equities, helping the INR avoid big losses. China reduced the one-year loan prime rate to 4.15% from 4.20% and the five-year rate to 4.80% from 4.85%. USD/INR closed at 71.72 on Tuesday, representing a 0.17% drop on the day. Sellers have failed to penetrate the area around 71.44 over the last three days. Technical levels  

USD/JPY has recovered from session lows but remains on the defensive below 109.07. The pair is currently trading at 108.50, representing marginal loss

USD/JPY has recovered 14 pips from session lows despite weakness in Treasury yields. The US equity index futures are also flashing red. The pair needs to rise above 109.07 to invalidate the bearish case.USD/JPY has recovered from session lows but remains on the defensive below 109.07. The pair is currently trading at 108.50, representing marginal losses on the day, having hit a low of 108.36 earlier today. The 14-pip recovery is somewhat confounding, given the futures on the S&P 500 are still reporting a 0.25% drop, courtesy of the renewed US-China political tensions. Further, the US 10-year Treasury yield is trading at 1.769%, the lowest level since Nov. 4. Notably, the yield has shed 20 basis points since topping out of 1.972% on Nov. 7. While the pair has trimmed losses, the bias remains bearish the daily MACD histogram printing deeper bars below the zero line, a sign of the strengthening of bearish momentum. The relative strength index is also reporting bearish conditions with a below-50 print, validating the pair's recent breach of an ascending trendline from the Aug. 26 low of 104.45. The outlook would turn bullish if and when the pair finds acceptance above 109.07 (Nov. 18 high). That would invalidate the lower highs setup. Daily chartTrend: Bearish Technical levels  

According to the analysts at ING Bank, “Japan's worsening export growth is largely illusory and growth rates should soon start to improve.” Key Quotes

According to the analysts at ING Bank, “Japan's worsening export growth is largely illusory and growth rates should soon start to improve.” Key Quotes: “The JPY is a little weaker on these trade figures, with their accompanying smaller than expected trade surplus (JPY17.3bn) and the adjusted balance swinging into a small deficit (-JPY34.7bn). The import growth figures at -14.8%YoY down from -1.5% in September also suggest terribly weak domestic demand, whereas in JPY, they were also up slightly (JPY6560 vs 6491bn) and suggest nothing out of the ordinary occurring. The import growth figures for December will likely outpace those of exports in returning to positive annual growth, even if nothing, in reality, is really changing. What these figures do hint at, is a broad moderation in the cyclical damage caused by the tech slump, together with no further general deterioration stemming from the ongoing trade war. The JPY has been a beneficiary of these global risk events, and if these negative forces are now ebbing, the JPY may see its support beginning to fade, even as its local fundamentals start to improve.”

While speaking at a meeting on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang made the following comments, as cited by Reuters. The PBOC

While speaking at a meeting on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang made the following comments, as cited by Reuters. The PBOC will continue to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment and increase credit support to the real economy as it seeks to stabilize economic growth. The central bank would also guide real lending interest rates lower and promote the replenishment of bank capital. Earlier today, the PBOC cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) 5 bps to 4.15% while lowering the five-year LPR to 4.80% from the previous 4.85%. USD/CNH: Better bid amid US-China political tensions

The offshore Yuan exchange rate (CNH) is losing altitude amid renewed US-China political tensions. The USD/CNH is currently trading at 7.0353, represe

USD/CNH is flashing green with China threatening retaliation to the US' move on Hong Kong. China cut on-year and five-year loan prime rate as expected.The offshore Yuan exchange rate (CNH) is losing altitude amid renewed US-China political tensions. The USD/CNH is currently trading at 7.0353, representing a 0.15% gain on a 24-hour basis. The Chinese currency has likely come under pressure due to escalating political tensions between the US and China. The US Senate on Tuesday passed legislation aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong. The “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act” will now be put to test in the House of Representatives, which approved its own version of the measure in October. The US' move has irked China, whose Foreign Ministry was out on the wires earlier today warning of retaliation. It is worth noting that the renewed political tensions could complicate trade issues between the two nations. President Trump on Tuesday said that China is moving along well on the trade front and needs to sign the deal he wants else the US will hike tariffs on Chinese imports. China cuts rates China reduced interest rates a few minutes before press time. The nation reduced the one-year loan prime rate to 4.15% from 4.20% and the five-year rate to 4.80% from 4.85%. So far, however, the move has not had a notable impact on the CNH, possibly because the rate cut was expected.Technical levels  

The Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), in its latest report, raised the milk payment forecast for Fonterra to NZD 7.50 / kgms, in the wake of improving prices

The Bank of New Zealand (BNZ), in its latest report, raised the milk payment forecast for Fonterra to NZD 7.50 / kgms, in the wake of improving prices at the fortnight dairy auctions conducted by Fonterra. Further Details: “The NZ milk price outlook continues to improve.  Dairy prices have been firm in 2019 and have pushed higher over recent auctions.  GDT prices are heading toward the top of a trading range that has held them since 2014 and are now a chunky 26.4% higher than a year earlier. Overall, dairy market fundamentals continue to look healthy. Indeed, we would be forecasting a higher milk price if it were not for still elevated - if down from its peak - global economic uncertainty.” Despite the NZD-positive headline, the Kiwi fails to benefit and trade in the red around 0.6420 amid US-China trade and political tensions. NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Registers another pullback from 100-day EMA

NZD/USD again steps back from 100-day EMA, accompanied by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, while taking rounds to 0.6420 during early Wednesday.

NZD/USD fails to cross 0.6427/30 resistance confluence.A two-month-old rising channel portrays overall bullish sentiment.NZD/USD again steps back from 100-day EMA, accompanied by 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, while taking rounds to 0.6420 during early Wednesday. The quote can now aim for 0.6360 during further declines while 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of July-October downpour and the lower line of an ascending trend channel since late-September, around 0.6340 and 0.6320 respectively, could entertain sellers afterward. If at all bears dominate below 0.6320, mid-October low near 0.6240 and 0.6200 round-figure, including the previous month bottom, will be in the spotlight. On the contrary, the pair’s sustained break above 0.6430 enables it to challenge the monthly tops near 0.6470. Though, 50% Fibonacci retracement and the resistance of the aforementioned channel could challenges buyers near 0.6500/05. Adding to the upside barriers is the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6423. NZD/USD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Analysts at ING raise no doubts about the market’s reaction to the latest US-China trade developments as they term it to be the key driver for markets.

Analysts at ING raise no doubts about the market’s reaction to the latest US-China trade developments as they term it to be the key driver for markets. Key quotes "The US-China trade war remains the key driver for markets with President Trump now threatening a fresh round of tariffs if there is no trade deal." "Outside trade noise, investors will be looking to the FOMC minutes for direction on the Fed policy as the latest data points to a soft-landing in the US economy." "There is little going on in Asia aside from trade figures from Japan and Taiwan, while Malaysian inflation continuing to be a non-event."

Asia stocks are sliding, following on the coattails of Wall Street as trade war angst surfaces once again. Indeed, the US Senate passage of bill in su

Asian benchmarks are sliding, SSE Composite -0.22%, Nikkei 225 (-0.49%).US Senate passage of bill in support of Hong Kong protests spurs some concerns of impact to trade talks.Asia stocks are sliding, following on the coattails of Wall Street as trade war angst surfaces once again. Indeed, the US Senate passage of bill in support of Hong Kong protests spurs some concerns of impact to trade talks;  Nikkei 225 (-0.49%), SSE Composite -0.22%.US Senate approves Hong Kong human rights bill, sends to House of Representatives - RTRSOn Monday, a CNBC report has investors moving to the sidelines as it was apparent that Chinese officials were concerned about Trump's prior comments about not being able to roll back tariffs.  "The latest report was that the rolling back of tariffs will be tied to the preliminary terms that were set when the trade talks failed in May," analysts at ANZ Bank explained, adding, "China has reportedly demanded that all tariffs imposed after May be removed immediately and then tariffs imposed before that be lifted gradually. US officials have a different view on how much Phase One would cover and what portion of the tariffs they should agree to roll back." In more recent trade, the angst has escalated in the US Senate approving the Hong Kong human rights bill which it is sending it to the House of Representatives. Key notes: Subsequently, the following statements have been streaming through, making for a risk-off session in Asia, so far:  The Chinese Foreign Ministry was reiterating the threat to retaliate against the US bill on Hong Kong: Strongly condemns US senate measures on Hong Kong, resolutely opposes the action.US should stop interfering in Hong Kong and China’s affairs.US should stop the latest bills on Hong Kong from becoming law.China must take necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security. Hong Kong government: The US bill is both unnecessary and ungrounded.HK government express regret over the US senate passage of the Hong Kong bill.HK government: Foreign parliament should not be interfering with internal affairs. HK government: Will continue to implement the one country systems.HK government: US Senate bill will have a negative impact on US interests. 

Japanese daily, the Nikkei Asian Review, carries the latest headlines, citing that the Japanese ruling coalition is considering approval for JPY 10 tr

Japanese daily, the Nikkei Asian Review, carries the latest headlines, citing that the Japanese ruling coalition is considering approval for JPY 10 trillion for the extra budget. This comes after Japanese senior ruling party official Toshihiro Nikai’s and Trade Minister also said on Tuesday that an extra budget of JPY 10 trillion is needed. Japan ruling party's Nikai: Need JPY 10 trln extra budget - Jiji Japan’s TradeMin: An extra budget of around JPY 10 tln is needed The above piece of news has virtually no impact on the USD/JPY pair, as the anti-risk Yen continues to benefit from the risk-off flows driven by the latest China-US political tensions over the Hong Kong unrest while trade uncertainty lingers in the back drop. The spot trades -0.10% near 108.40 region.

The USD/CAD pair’s run-up to five-week high seems to witness a bumpy road ahead. The quote takes the bids to 1.3280 during the Asian session on Wednesday.

USD/CAD confronts 200-day SMA, a falling resistance line since late-May.50% of Fibonacci retracement adds to the resistance.100-day SMA acts as a near-term firm support.The USD/CAD pair’s run-up to five-week high seems to witness a bumpy road ahead. The quote takes the bids to 1.3280 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The downward sloping trend line since May 30, coupled with 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), near 1.3277/80 acts as immediate upside barriers for the pair’s latest rise. Also increasing hardships for buyers is 50% Fibonacci retracement level of May-July declines at 1.3290. In case bulls manage to dominate past-1.3290, the 1.3350/55 area including the previous month high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement will be in the spotlight. On the downside, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3225 offers nearby rest during the pair’s pullback, a break of which could recall a 100-day SMA level of 1.3205. It should be noted that the two-week-old rising support line around 1.3160 could question sellers below 1.3205. USD/CAD daily chart Trend: Pullback expected  

Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, is having a tough time posting gains despite the renewed political tensions between the US and China. The yellow met

Gold remains trapped in $1,470-$1,475 range despite fresh US-China political tensions. China reduced the one-year and five-year loan prime rate, as expected. China's rate cut has also failed to put a bid under Gold. Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, is having a tough time posting gains despite the renewed political tensions between the US and China. The yellow metal remains trapped in a narrow range of $1,470 to $1,475 for the eighth straight hour. The US Senate, in a unanimous vote, passed legislation on Tuesday aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong. The “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act” will now go to the House of Representatives, which approved its own version of the measure in October. China's Foreign Ministry was out on the wires a few minutes before press time, criticizing the US' move and threatening retaliation. The futures on the S&P 500 are feeling the heat of the fresh political tensions. The index futures are currently down 0.24% on the day. The AUD/JPY pair, a barometer of risk sentiment in Asia, has also dropped by almost 30 pips in the last sixth minutes. Gold, however, is struggling to find takers. The yellow metal's inability to score gains looks more confounding if we take into account the decision by China to cut interest rates. The World's second-largest economy reduced the one-year loan prime rate to 4.15% from 4.20% and the five-year rate to 4.80%from 4.85%. Note that the rate cut was anticipated by most analysts. Technical levels  

In addition to the US-China arguments over Hong Kong, sluggish AU data and PBOC’s support for easy money keep AUD/USD under pressure below 21-day EMA.

AUD/USD comes under pressure after the US and China again confront each other over the Hong Kong protests.Aussie Leading Index, Skilled Vacancies flashed downbeat results whereas PBOC kept supporting easy money.Trade/political headlines could entertain markets ahead of FOMC minutes.In addition to the US-China arguments over Hong Kong, sluggish AU data and PBOC’s support for easy money keep AUD/USD under pressure below 21-day EMA while flashing 0.6813 as a quote during Wednesday’s Asian session. In a reaction to the United States (US) Senate passing the Hong Kong protest bill, Chinese Spokesman Lijian Zhao harshly turned down the Trump administration’s right to interfere in China's internal affairs. While both the countries were already struggling over phase one deal, further arguments over Hong Kong could spoil the mood among trade negotiators and dim prospects of a successful outcome. Even Hong Kong government expresses regret over the US passage of the bill. On the economic front, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index for October came in above -0.12% (downwardly revised) prior to -0.07% but the bank terms it as “materially below trend.” Further, October month Skilled Vacancies increased downside pressure on the Aussie as the number registered consecutive 10 months of contraction to 0.9% versus -0.7% prior. Additionally, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), cut its one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 4.15% from 4.20% prior. The PBOC also announced no change to the five-year LPR of 4.85%. Even so, Fitch affirms China’s credit rating at A+ with a stable outlook while cutting down 2020 growth forecasts to 5.7% from 6.1% in 2019. That said, the market’s risk-tone remains under pressure with the US 10-year Treasury yields losing nearly three basis points (bps) to 1.75% whereas S&P 500 Futures declining 0.3% to 3,110. Although a lack of major data/events on the economic calendar could keep Aussie traders guessing, trade/political headlines will be the key for them to watch ahead of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting. Technical Analysis Other than the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6835, 100-day EMA around 0.6855 also limits pair’s run-up to 0.6900 round-figure. In doing so, 0.6800 and 0.6770 will remain present on sellers’ radar.  

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision below forecasts (4.2%): Actual (4.15%)

The PBoC prime loan rate decisions which are announced by the People´s Bank of China arrived as follows: Cut by 5 basis points for both the for 1 and

The PBoC prime loan rate decisions which are announced by the People´s Bank of China arrived as follows: Cut by 5 basis points for both the for 1 and 5-year rates.  China 5-year loan prime rate 4.80% (prev 4.85%). China 1-year loan prime rate 4.15% (prev 4.20%). USD/CNY has popped around 0.10% on the decision and AUD/USD has moved 5 pips higher.  In prior meetings and announcements, the Chinese authorities had been repeatedly emphasizing a need to improve financing to the country’s privately run, smaller companies, which account for much of the economic growth. The key points of the new “loan prime rate” were to increase the role of market forces in determining rates. At the same time, there was a focus on lower financing costs to the real economy. However, how effective these rates will be in helping smaller businesses is yet to be seen considering how difficult it may be to spur demand for new loans. About the PBoC Interest Rate Decision: If the PBoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the CNY. Likewise, if the PBoC has a dovish view on the Chinese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is negative, or bearish.

China’s Foreign Ministry came out with a statement on Wednesday, reiterating the threat to retaliate against us bill on Hong Kong. Developing story ..

China’s Foreign Ministry came out with a statement on Wednesday, reiterating the threat to retaliate against the US bill on Hong Kong.Additional Quotes: Strongly condemns US senate measures on Hong Kong, resolutely opposes the action. US should stop interfering in Hong Kong and China’s affairs. US should stop the latest bills on Hong Kong from becoming law. China must take necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0118 vs Tuesday's fix at 7.0030.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 7.0118 vs Tuesday's fix at 7.0030. 

Fitch Ratings has affirmed China's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+' with a Stable outlook. While robust external finance

Fitch Ratings has affirmed China's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A+' with a Stable outlook. While robust external finances, strong macroeconomic performance, and size of the economy are supporting ratings, the large structural vulnerabilities in the financial sector, relatively low per capita income, and weaker governance metrics remain pain areas, Fitch said.  Key quotes Fitch forecasts growth will slow to 5.7% in 2020, from 6.1% in 2019. Our baseline currently assumes implementation of the entire suite of announced tariffs by the US Trade Representative, including a 15% tariff on about USD150 billion of consumer-goods imports from China scheduled to take effect in mid-December 2019.  Recent progress towards reaching a US-China "phase one" trade deal suggests the possible postponement or eventual removal of some existing tariffs, which could pose an upside risk to our growth outlook.

USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.54 within a range of 108.38/57 in Asia, supported on the 50-day moving average (DMA) with bullish attempts capped

Trade and Brexit keep markets on edge, Yen consolidates on lower US dollar and yields. Hong Kong thrown into the mix dampening positive trade deal prospects. USD/JPY is currently trading at 108.54 within a range of 108.38/57 in Asia, supported on the 50-day moving average (DMA) with bullish attempts capped by the 200-DMA. Trae wars and Brexit remain the key themes, although there has been a lack of fundamental developments in those respects and markets are moving into a phase of consolidation as investors insist on further catalysts before making a move.  The start of the week's news from CNBC whereby Chinese officials require scaling back in tariffs is keeping investor son high alert and underpinning the risk-off profile in markets. The latest developments come with the US Senate which has approved the Hong Kong human rights bill and is sending it to the House of Representatives.  Brexit TV debate conclusions were mixed in the polls Elsewhere, Brexit was a focus with the first f a series of Live TV debates hosted by ITV at the start of the Asian session. The debate concluded with mixed polls. A snap ITV Twitter poll put Corbyn in the lead by a huge percentage as follows (there were 29,665 votes): 78% Jermy Corbyn won. 22% said Johnson won. Meanwhile, and to the contrary, a YouGov / Sky News snap chat Poll arrived as follows:  Johnson 51% Corbyn 49% Excluding don’t knows Just over 1,600 respondents Indeed, major polls have the Tory party in with a double-digit lead which is supportive of a risk-on climate considering Johnson seems to have a majority of the Tory party backing his deal.  Meanwhile, Fedspeak came with New York Federal Reserve president Williams who said that the economy is in a “good place”. With respect to yields, the US 2-year treasury yields roundtripped between 1.59% to 1.62% while the 10-years initially climbed from 1.80% to 1.83% but were then sent back to 1.78%.  USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that the USD/JPY pair consolidates below the 20- and the 200-day SMAs, having hit a daily low of 108.45: "The technical picture has turned slightly bearish according to the 4-hour chart, with indicators crossing into negative ground although lacking bearish strength. Immediate support is seen at 108.44, 200-period SMA in 4-hour chart, followed by 108.23, last week’s low. However, only a break below 107.70, 100-day SMA, could tilt the longer-term bias to the downside."  

China is widely expected to cut the one-year loan prime rate on Wednesday, according to a survey of traders and analysts. All 64 respondents in the sn

China is widely expected to cut the one-year loan prime rate on Wednesday, according to a survey of traders and analysts.  All 64 respondents in the snap survey expected a cut in the new benchmark interest rate. Thirty-seven respondents also expected another cut in the five-year. About 45% of all respondents predicted a 5-basis-point cut in both one-year and five-year LPRs, according to Reuters.  The one-year loan prime rate currently stands at 4.20% per annum. 

With the multi-month-old descending triangle formation restricting the USD/IDR pair’s immediate moves, the quote drops to 14,090.

USD/IDR pulls back from near-term key bullish chart patterns.23.6% Fibonacci retracement, July-September lows on sellers’ radar.Bulls can target 61.8% Fibonacci retracement during the upside break.With the multi-month-old descending triangle formation restricting the USD/IDR pair’s immediate moves, the quote drops to 14,090 by the press time of Wednesday’s Asian session. The quote needs to provide a clear break above the bullish formation resistance, at 14,200, in order to aim for 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of April-June downtick, at 14,344. Though, pair’s further upside might not refrain from challenging August month top near 14,580 followed by May month highs close to 14,670. Meanwhile, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and lows marked since July, close to 13,970 and 13,880 respectively, can keep sellers entertained ahead of diverting them to June month low near 13,750. USD/IDR daily chart Trend: Sideways  

The path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the higher side despite Tuesday's 0.19% drop. The daily chart shows the pair is holding t

GBP/USD continues to look north with a flag breakout on the daily chart. The impending golden crossover could invite stronger buying pressure. The path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair remains to the higher side despite Tuesday's 0.19% drop. The daily chart shows the pair is holding the support at 1.2922 – the upper edge of the bull flag, which was breached to the higher side on Friday. Put simply, the flag breakout or the bullish continuation pattern and is accompanied by a falling channel breakout on the 14-day relative strength index. Further, the 50-day moving average is looking set to cross the 200-day moving average in the next few days. The impending golden cross could bolster the bullish sentiment. The pair, therefore, remains on track to test and possibly break above the psychological hurdle of 1.30. The bullish case would weaken if the spot finds acceptance under 1.29.  Daily chartTrend: Bullish Technical levels  

Although Australia’s (AU) October month Leading Index (MoM) came in well above -0.12% revised prior to -0.07%, Westpac holds its dovish bias.

Although Australia’s (AU) October month Leading Index (MoM) came in well above -0.12% revised prior to -0.07%, Westpac holds its dovish bias concerning the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February month rate decision. Key quotes Despite a slight improvement in the month, the Leading Index growth rate remains materially below trend and continues to point to weak economic momentum carrying well into 2020. This below trend "theme" for the Australian economy is consistent with Westpac’s current forecast for GDP growth in 2020 of 2.4%, compared to a trend growth rate of 2.75%. The Reserve Bank has recently released its revised growth forecasts for 2019, 2020 and 2021. It has maintained its view that year on year growth in 2020 will return to trend, at 2.8%, for the first calendar year since 2016. The Leading Index growth rate has deteriorated over the last six months from –0.53% in May to –0.91% in October. The main components driving the 0.39ppt shift have been a sell-off in commodity prices (–0.43ppts); a more mixed performance on the Australian sharemarket (–0.20ppts); a deterioration in consumers’ unemployment expectations (–0.17ppts), in consumer expectations more generally (–0.10ppts); and a slowdown in monthly hours worked (–0.07ppts). We expect that by next February the Board will have received enough information on the impact of the three cuts we have seen since June to acknowledge the need to reduce the cash rate by a further 0.25%, maintain a clear easing bias and consider introducing unconventional policies.

GBP/JPY traders look for direction as the pair seesaws between 21-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement while taking rounds to 140.30.

GBP/JPY traders near the three-day low.A downside break of 21-day SMA holds the key to further declines towards recent range lows, 200-day SMA.Late-May high can challenge buyers during an upside.GBP/JPY traders look for direction as the pair seesaws between 21-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement while taking rounds to 140.30 during the Asian session on Wednesday. While recent lows near 139.40/35 can offer immediate support to the pair during the downside break of 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 140.07, 200-day SMA around 138.50 will be the key to watch afterward. If prices slip below 138.50 on a daily closing basis, sellers targeting 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-August downpour, at 137.76, will sneak in. Alternatively, a daily closing beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 140.40 can again push buyers towards late-May high nearing 141.75. Though, pair’s further advances will target 143.80/75 area including multiple lows marked in March and April month. GBP/JPY daily chart Trend: Sideways  

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has hit the lowest level in two weeks. Currently, the benchmark yield is trading at 1.769%, the level last s

US 10-year Treasury yield has slipped to lowest since Nov. 4. The yield has shed more than 20 basis points over the last few days. The curve has flattened with the yield spread hitting a two-week low. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has hit the lowest level in two weeks. Currently, the benchmark yield is trading at 1.769%, the level last seen on Nov. 4. The yield is down 1.5 basis points on the day at press time and is flashing red for the third straight day. Notably, the 10-year yield has declined by more than 20 basis points since topping out at 1.972% on Nov. 7. The curve between the The recent slide in yields likely represents waning optimism on the US-China trade front. President Trump on Tuesday said that China was "moving along"  and would have to make a deal that "he likes", else the United States would raise tariffs on Chinese imports. As a result, the 10-year yield fell close to five basis points on Tuesday. The curve flattened for the fifth straight day with the spread between the 10- and two-year yields falling to a two-week low of 18.7 basis points, according to Reuters. The recent flattening of the yield curve has likely hurt the US dollar. The Dollar Index is currently trading at 97.82, having hit a high of 98.45 on Nov. 13.

US Commerce Sec Ross is crossing the wires and has said that he is optimistic they can get something done on China. Key comments: We think there is ho

US Commerce Sec Ross is crossing the wires and has said that he is optimistic they can get something done on China. Key comments: We think there is hope we can get a deal with china done. Deal is still a work in progress.

Gold prices continued to correct high from their November lows, benefitting from a soft US dollar and US yields. Gold, in Asia, trades on a spot basis

Gold bulls in control as trade wars remain a prominent factor in risk-off tones. Bulls seek out the critical upside targets and Fibonacci levels. Gold prices continued to correct high from their November lows, benefitting from a soft US dollar and US yields. Gold, in Asia, trades on a spot basis at $1,474.09 and is currently +0.15% bid on the session. Gold has travelled from a low of $1,464.86 to a high of $1,475.43.  The themes remain with trade wars and Brexit, but the markets were relatively quiet overall, with little in the way of fresh catalysts to renew another drive in the financial and commodities markets. Instead, investors remain on alert following the news that Chinese officials require scaling back in tariffs in which the US administration is unlikely to bow down to. At the same time and in more recent trade, there is the news that the US Senate has approved the Hong Kong human rights bill and is sending it to the House of Representatives - A possible antagonistic move with respect to trade relations between the US and China.  All eyes on the Fed "With President Trump resuming his pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, just as Chair Powell embarks on his second pause in the last twelve months, some gold bugs are anticipating that the White House could be looking for reassurances that the Fed is ready to provide a backstop to the government should the trade war escalate ," analysts at TD Securities argued. However, gold may struggle to gain further traction should the market continue to factor out any further rate cuts from the Fed at this juncture – there is a near-zero chance of easing at the December meeting as analysts at Westpac point out, noting a terminal rate of 1.22% (vs 1.63% currently). Meanwhile, overnight, Fedspeak continued and this time it was New York Federal Reserve president Williams who kept in tow of the all too familiar post-FOMC meeting stance. Williams said that the economy is in a “good place”. With respect to the US dollar and yields, the US 2-year treasury yields roundtripped between 1.59% to 1.62% while the 10-years initially climbed from 1.80% to 1.83% but were then sent back to 1.78%.  Gold levels Having found a base around the 23.6% Fibonacci target, gold is embarking on a test of the 21-day moving average with a confluence of the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the Sep-Nov range. The 61.8% Fibo at $1,515 ahead of the 78.6% in the $1,530s are critical upside targets.  

Given the US Senate’s latest bill on Hong Kong, coupled with the below-trend AU Westpac Leading Index, weighing on the AUD/JPY pair, the quote trades near 74.00

AUD/JPY drops to the session lows after the US Senate approves a bill that supports protestors in Hong Kong.A downward revision to Australia’s Westpac Leading Index and sluggish trade hopes add to the pair’s weakness.Mixed numbers of Japan’s trade were largely ignored.Given the US Senate’s latest bill on Hong Kong, coupled with the below-trend AU Westpac Leading Index, weighing on the AUD/JPY pair, the quote trades near 74.00 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The Bloomberg news that the United States (US) Senate unanimously passed a bill aimed at supporting protesters in Hong Kong seems to have recently fueled the market’s risk-off moves. The bill is sent to the House of Representatives for approval and if passed will warn China against a violent suppression of the demonstrations. This indicates further hardships for the US-China trade negotiators who are jostling over the phase one talks with the concerns over tariff rollback acting as the latest roadblock. On the other hand, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index for October rose past downwardly revised -0.12% to -0.07%. However, the Westpac report published after the release says, “the Leading Index growth rate remains materially below trend and continues to point to weak economic momentum carrying well into 2020.” Also occupying the economic calendar were Japan’s trade numbers for October. The headlines Trade Balance weakened below ¥301 B forecast to ¥17.3 B while Imports recovered to -14.8% versus -16% expected but Exports slipped to -9.2% against -7.6% market consensus. With this, the US 10-year Treasury yields remain under pressure around 1.77% while the S&P 500 Futures lose -0.13% to 3,112 by the press time. Considering the lack of major statistics/events on the economic calendar, traders will keep eyes on headlines concerning the US-China trade relations and Hong Kong for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 74.30 acts as an immediate upside barrier ahead of early-month low near 74.60. On the contrary, 73.40/35, comprising the monthly bottom, could keep checking sellers.  

Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance above expectations (¥-277.5B) in October: Actual (¥-34.7B)

Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below expectations (¥301B) in October: Actual (¥17.3B)

Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -14.8%, above forecasts (-16%) in October

Japan Exports (YoY) came in at -9.2%, below expectations (-7.6%) in October

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) climbed from previous -0.08% to -0.07% in October

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) dipped from previous -0.08% to -0.1% in October

While taking rounds to 71.86 during early Asian morning on Wednesday, USD/INR stays below the immediate resistance line amid a bearish signal from MACD.

USD/INR holds on to recovery gains from 50-bar SMA.Short-term resistance line, bearish MACD increase odds for another pullback.200-bar SMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement provide key support.While taking rounds to 71.86 during early Asian morning on Wednesday, USD/INR stays below the immediate resistance line amid a bearish signal from MACD. As a result, sellers can expect another drop to 50-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 71.72 ahead of dragging the quote to 50% Fibonacci retracement of the current month upside, around 71.40. However, a confluence of 200-bar SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 71.21/18 could restrict pair’s declines below 71.40, if not then November 07 low close to 70.87 and the monthly bottom surrounding 70.50 could be sellers’ favorites. Should buyers ignore bearish signals from 12-bar Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD), they need to cross immediate resistance line, at 72.13, in order to challenge the monthly top around 72.40. If at all prices stay strong beyond 72.40, September month high near 72.65 and December 2018 high of 72.82 will be in the spotlight. USD/INR 4-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

AUD/NZD has been better offered on the back of the more dovish than expected Reserve Bank of Australia minutes released in yesterday's session althoug

NZD gains on recent GDT dairy auction, currency outperforming. AUD/NZD can resume its downside trajectory, targets 200-DMAAUD/NZD has been better offered on the back of the more dovish than expected Reserve Bank of Australia minutes released in yesterday's session although is sticking to a relatively narrow range of between1.0620 and 1.0645 in the main. Dovish RBA minutes do little to prevent a bid in AUD The RBA minutes did not have a material impact on the market, although the Aussie did drop, as would be expected considering the affirmation that the RBA is leaning with a dovish bias. AUD/USD has recovered back onto the 0.68 handle following a 20 pip fall on the minutes to 0.6785. The initial knee jerk downside spike came on the back of the minute saying, “a case could be made to ease monetary policy at this meeting.” However, it would seem that there were too many arguments against cutting rates after the three recent cuts. Subsequently, and also considering the lacklustre performance in the US dollar, AUD was more than retracing yesterday’s 20 pip fall.  Meanwhile, AUD/NZD is also taking its cues from the recent GDT dairy auction as well as a steady hand from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand of late. The GDT dairy auction resulted in prices overall rising 1.7%, with whole milk powder running up to a three-year high at up 2.2%. Skimmed milk powder was also up 3.3%. Indeed, the outperformer was the bird, which rose from 0.6390 to 0.6429. AUD/USD & AUD/NZD levels AUD/USD was recently rejected in the area of the 200-day moving average and has been respecting the descending trend line resistance. Bulls are now testing the 21-DMA as bulls climb back away from the lower bound of the Bollinger bands and towards the September rising channel support. To the downside, the 0.6730s are a line in the sand which guard space to the YTD lows in the 0.6660s. Meanwhile, to the upside, should bulls get back above the 200-DMA, they will look to the 0.7020s areas which meet the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2018 highs to July 2019 lows.  While the bird outperforms, AUD/NZD can resume its downside trajectory within the strongly bearish territories. The 4-hour moving averages remain steeply bearish with price below the  38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Aug to YTD highs which guards a run to the 1.0550s and a confluence of the 200-day moving average. 

Adding to the hardships for energy buyers, a surprise build in API oil inventories dragged WTI to a 13-day low near $55.20.

WTI revisits November-start area after increase in private inventory reports.The energy benchmark previously declined on concerns that Russia will stay away from further supply cuts.Today’s official stockpile numbers in the spotlight for now.Adding to the hardships for energy buyers, a surprise build in API oil inventories dragged WTI to a 13-day low near $55.20 by the press time of early Asian session on Wednesday. The weekly Crude Oil Stock report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) survey showed that oil inventories rose 5.954 million barrels during the week ended on November 15 versus the earlier depletion of 0.5 million barrels. That adds pressure on the supply side which was already bearing the burden of Reuters news that Russia was unlikely to agree to deepen additional oil output cuts at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) meeting in Vienna on December 5th. Also increasing the downside pressure could be the uncertainty surrounding the trade deal between the United States (US) and China. The world’s top two economies are at loggerheads over the tariff rollback for phase one deal while Hong Kong protests and tussle over Taiwan continues. Energy traders will now focus on the official reading of oil inventories to confirm the latest supply concerns. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks change for the week ended on November 15 is expected to register 1.062 million barrels of oil inventories versus 2.219 million barrels prior. It should also be noted that headlines concerning geopolitical tension in Iran and US-China trade news will add burden on market watchers. Technical Analysis Given the black gold’s break below the six-week-old rising trend line, prices are likely to retest October-end low near $53.70 while further downside can recall $52.50 and the previous month's bottom surrounding $51.20 on the chart. In the case of pullback, the quote needs to cross $56.50 to challenge the recent highs near $58.20.  

Reuters has reported that the US Senate has approved the Hong Kong human rights bill and is sending it to the House of Representatives. The U.S. Senat

Reuters has reported that the US Senate has approved the Hong Kong human rights bill and is sending it to the House of Representatives. The U.S. Senate, in a unanimous vote, passed legislation on Tuesday aimed at protecting human rights in Hong Kong amid China's crackdown on a pro-democracy protest movement in that vital financial center,  the article reads, adding: With the voice vote by senators, the "Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act" now goes to the House of Representatives, which earlier approved its own version of the measure. The two chambers will have to work out the differences before any legislation can be sent to President Donald Trump for his consideration. FX implications:  More to come...

Following a downbeat reaction to the RBA’s November month monetary policy meeting minutes, AUD/USD recovers to multi-day high.

AUD/USD recovers losses pilled due to RBA minutes, USD stays mostly flat.Sentiment concerning US-China phase one deal stays in the middle of nowhere amid doubts over tariff rollback.Australia’s Westpac Leading Index and Skilled Vacancies will offer immediate direction while trade headlines can keep the driver’s seat ahead of FOMC minutes.Following a downbeat reaction to the RBA’s November month monetary policy meeting minutes, AUD/USD recovers to multi-day high while taking the bids near 0.6830 amid the initial Asian session on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy meeting minutes showed that the board discussed further rate cuts but waited for more clues. With this, odds of another rate reduction from the Aussie central bank in February rallied after the release. However, the same lost its negative impact after the United States (US) President Donald Trump tweeted, “At my meeting with Jay Powell this morning, I protested the fact that our Fed Rate is set too high relative to the interest rates of other competitor countries. In fact, our rates should be lower than all others (we are the US). Too strong a Dollar hurting manufacturers & growth!” Trade hopes between the US and China keep lingering as the roadblock over tariff is still standing tall with the US President Trump keeping his call for China “to make a deal" else he will "just raise tariffs". On the economic front, the US housing market numbers flashes positive signs and the Fedspeak kept praising the current monetary policy. That said, the US 10-year treasury yields stay under pressure around 1.78% while the S&P 500 Futures down -0.16% by the press time. October month Westpac Leading Index, -0.08% prior, followed by Skilled Vacancies, -0.70% earlier, are now on the traders’ radar while news concerning the US-China trade will keep being as a major catalyst. Though, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting will also be the key to watch. “We expect the FOMC minutes from the October meeting to elaborate on the Committee's decision to ease rates while also sending a firm signal to set the bar high for additional accommodation. We anticipate discussions to touch upon what "material reassessment" of the outlook would lead the FOMC to shift its policy stance. The minutes may also provide further insights into the Framework Review debate,” says TD Securities. Technical Analysis 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.6855 holds the key to pair’s further recovery towards 0.6900 mark while 0.6930/35 area, including 200-day EMA and monthly top, will continue challenging buyers afterward. Meanwhile, 0.6800 and 0.6770 offer near-term key support to the pair.  

The upbeat sentiment of the dairy producers and an overall short covering move in commodity-linked currencies recently propelled the NZD/USD pair.

NZD/USD seesaws near two weeks high amid a lack of fresh clues.Upbeat GDT, recovery in Antipodeans previously ignored doubts over the US-China trade deal.Reports that BNZ bumped up Fonterra milk price forecast for 2019/20 keeps the bulls hopeful.While the upbeat sentiment of the dairy producers and an overall short covering move in commodity-linked currencies recently propelled the NZD/USD pair towards a two week high, the Kiwi pair struggles for direction around 0.6430 at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. New Zealand’s GDT Price Index recently crossed a 1.6% forecast with 1.7% mark. “Whole milk powder prices lifted 2.2% to USD3321/t – a touch weaker than the market expected. The market did not appear to be influenced by the NZ milk production data released yesterday, which showed a 1.5% fall in October production – a trend which is likely to continue in the coming months,” says the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ). Recent reports from BNZ say, “The NZ milk price outlook continues to improve. Dairy prices have been firm in 2019 and have pushed higher over recent auctions. GDT prices are heading toward the top of a trading range that has held them since 2014 and is now a chunky 26.4% higher than a year earlier.” Trade jitters between the United States (US) and China continue with the latest signs showing the failed trade talks in May to be used as a benchmark to rollback tariffs. However, Reuters cited US President Donald Trump saying “China is going to have to make a deal," else he will "just raise tariffs". Hence, the trading sentiment stays gloomy. Increasing the tension between the world’s top two economies in protests in Hong Kong where the youth is still fighting against the government despite witnessing a heavy defeat in the last hours. Traders now look for fresh headlines in the US-China phase one deal amid a lack of major data/events up for publishing on the economic calendar. However, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest monetary policy meeting could entertain market watchers during the later part of the day. Technical Analysis The quote needs to remain strong beyond the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6427 in order to aim for the monthly high of 0.6466, 0.6500 and then 200-day EMA level of 0.6522. On the downside, 50-day EMA level near 0.6380 and 0.6320 can please sellers during the pullback.  

The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs).

The market is consolidating the recent gains above the 1.1075 level.Resistances can be seen at the 1.1110 and 1.1150 levels.     EUR/USD daily chart   The Fiber, on the daily chart, is trading in a downtrend below downward sloping 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMAs).     EUR/USD four-hour chart   The market is trading above the 1.1075 level and the main SMAs. As the bullish pressure remains present above 1.1075, there is the potential for a move up to the 1.1110 and 1.1150 levels, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.       EUR/USD 30-minute chart     EUR/USD is trading above its main SMAs, suggesting a bullish bias in the near term. Support is seen at the 1.1075, 1.1050 and 1.1032 price levels.     Additional key levels  
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