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Risk warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 90% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Tuesday, June 18, 2019

EUR/USD is in a bear trend below its main simple moving average (DSMA). The market is breaking below the 1.1200 figure. EUR/USD 4-hour chart The marke

EUR/USD broke below a significant support at 1.1200 figure.Bears will be looking at the 1.1147 and 1.1101 to the downside according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Mario Draghi the President of the European Central Bank said that he leaves the door open to further stimulus including rate cuts.Earlier the ZEW survey and the inflation data in Europe disappointed adding to the poor mood on the EUR.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is in a bear trend below its main simple moving average (DSMA). The market is breaking below the 1.1200 figure. 
EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market broke below the main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the near term. The market is currently testing 1.1180 support, which is the Pivot Point one-day S2 and the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.  EUR/USD 30-minute chart EUR/USD is under pressure below its main SMAs. A break below 1.1180 can lead to 1.1147 the monthly Fibonacci of 23.6% after that comes the 1.1112 support (previous month low and Pivot Point 1 week S2 closely followed by 1.1101, the monthly Pivot Point S1 and the lower Bolling Band on the daily chart. 
Additional key levels  

While speaking at the policy panel at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Mario Draghi said th

While speaking at the policy panel at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Mario Draghi said that the trigger for policy action is "the absence of improvement." There was not reaction from the EUR/USD pair so far and it was last seen trading at 1.1190, losing 0.25% on the day.Key quotesCore inflation remains muted. There is a certain disconnect with the current data and market-based expectations. Inflation path is converging more slowly than before. Some market-based inflation indicators lost information content. Not targeting specific FX rate.

The AUD/USD pair built on its steady intraday recovery from multi-month lows and spiked to fresh session tops, around the 0.6865-70 region in the last

A fresh wave of global risk-on mood triggers the initial leg of recovery.Trump’s positive trade-related comments provide an additional boost.The AUD/USD pair built on its steady intraday recovery from multi-month lows and spiked to fresh session tops, around the 0.6865-70 region in the last hour. The ECB President Mario Draghi's dovish remarks in Sintra earlier this Tuesday led to an intraday turnaround in the global risk sentiment, which extended some support to perceived riskier currencies - like the Aussie and led the initial leg of the rebound.  The recovery move picked up the pace during the early North-American session in reaction to some renewed trade optimism after the US President Donald Trump said that he will have an extended meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the G20 summit.  This was followed by Chinese state media report that President Xi agrees to talk with Trump next week, which raised prospects for a possible resolution of the prolonged US-China trade disputes and provided a strong lift to the China-proxy Australian Dollar. Adding to this, possibilities of some short-term trading stops being triggered on a sustained break through a one-week-old descending trend-channel formation on hourly charts seems have further aggravated move, helping the pair to snap four consecutive days of losing streak. However, it would be prudent to wait for strong follow-through recovery to see if the up-move is actually backed by some genuine buying or is solely led by some short-covering as the focus now shifts to Wednesday's FOMC monetary policy decision.Technical levels to watch 

In his prepared remarks delivered to lawmakers on Tuesday, the U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, said that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA)

In his prepared remarks delivered to lawmakers on Tuesday, the U.S. Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, said that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact has the 'most ambitious labor chapter' ever negotiated.Key quotes (via Reuters)USMCA pact as watershed development for labor, reducing incentives to outsource jobs. We are having constructive discussions with lawmakers on improvements to the USMCA. Hopes to submit implementing legislation that Congress can approve very soon. Lighthizer didn't touch on the U.S.-China trade negotiations in his remarks but may have to respond to questions on that matter during the Q&A session.

Citing Chinese state TV CCTV, Reuters recently reported that China's President Xi held a phone call with U.S. President Trump and agreed to meet durin

Citing Chinese state TV CCTV, Reuters recently reported that China's President Xi held a phone call with U.S. President Trump and agreed to meet during the G20 summit in Japan. Xi further added that he hoped the U.S. to treat Chinese firms fairly.  Stock markets in the U.S., which gained traction after Trump earlier in the session announced the meeting with Xi at the G20 via Twitter, continue to push higher with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both rising 1.15% on the day while the Nasdaq Composite is adding 2.05%. 

The USD/JPY pair quickly reversed an early North-American session dip to over one-week lows and rallied over 60-pips to refresh daily tops in the last

Trump said he will have an extended meeting with the Chinese President next week.This comes on the back of Draghi's dovish comments and triggers risk-on trade.Fading safe-haven demand weighs heavily on the JPY and remained supportive.The USD/JPY pair quickly reversed an early North-American session dip to over one-week lows and rallied over 60-pips to refresh daily tops in the last hour. The latest leg of a sudden pickup followed the US President Donald Trump's optimistic trade-related comments, saying that he will be having an extended meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi next week on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting in Japan. This comes on the back of dovish remarks by the ECB President Mario Draghi earlier this Tuesday and boosted investors' appetite for riskier assets, which was evident from a strong rally across equity markets and weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status. Bullish traders further took cues from a goodish intraday recovery in the US Treasury bond yields, which extended some support to the US Dollar and remained supportive of the pair's solid rebound from the vicinity of the 108.00 round figure mark. It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to capitalize on the positive momentum or runs out of the steam at higher levels as traders start repositioning for the next big event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.Technical levels to watch 

GBP/USD daily chart GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages. The market broke below the May’s low at 1.2558. The next

GBP/USD broke below the previous low established in May at 1.2558. The next support in line is seen at 1.2484 according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. GBP/USD daily chartGBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main simple moving averages. The market broke below the May’s low at 1.2558. The next main support to look at is seen at 1.2438, June 3 low.
GBP/USD 4-hour chartThe market is under bearish pressure below 1.2560 and the main simple moving averages (SMAs). The level to beat for bears is the 1.2500 support followed by 1.2484 which is the confluence of the Pivot Point one-day Support 2 and the previous yearly low.GBP/USD 30-minute chartGBP/USD is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a bearish bias in the short term. The 1.2588 is seen as strong resistance according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. 
Additional key levels 

While speaking at the policy panel at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Bank of England Governor Mark Carn

While speaking at the policy panel at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that in exceptional circumstances, like Brexit, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could extend the horizon over which it returns to the inflation target.Key quotes (via Reuters)Says his comments at ECB panel have no bearing on BoE policy announcement on Thursday. It has been critical for the Bank of England to pursue flexible inflation targeting. Flexibility cannot be used without limit, MPC has set out framework for policy trade-off. Experience in euro area and UK shows how forward guidance can be effective in managing expectations. BoE retains the ability to relaunch term funding scheme as necessary.  

Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are sharply higher on Tuesday, managing to retake the key $53.00 mark, or

Prices of WTI moved above the $53.00 mark per barrel.Trade tensions keep traders’ sentiment volatile so far.API weekly report on US crude oil inventories next on tap.Prices of the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil are sharply higher on Tuesday, managing to retake the key $53.00 mark, or gaining more than 2% on the day.WTI bid ahead of API reportThe WTI gained sudden upside traction and are navigating fresh 3-day highs after President Trump said he will meet China’s Xi Jingpin at the G-20 meeting in Japan next week, all following a ‘constructive’ telephone call. In the meantime, geopolitical tensions including the US and Iran in the wake of the attacks to oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week remain well in place and are underpinning higher prices from the supply side. In this regard, Iran’s Rouhani said earlier today that his country ‘would not wage war against any nation’. Later in the day, the American Petroleum Institute will report on US crude oil supplies during last week.What to look for around WTICrude oil appears to have shifted its focus of attention to the macro context, where the protracted US-China trade dispute and its negative consequences on global growth and demand for oil keep weighing on traders’ sentiment. Geopolitical jitters, particularly after the recent attacks in the Gulf of Oman, have triggered just a short-lived relief-rally, while there still no evidence of any culprits. This view has relegated – albeit temporarily – positive drivers coming in from the supply side, including the tight US market, the OPEC+ agreement (and potential extension) to curb oil production and the so-called ‘Saudi put’.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 2.41% at $53.18 and a breakout of $54.76 (high Jun.10) would aim for $58.44 (100-day SMA) and finally $58.97 (200-day SMA). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at $50.54 (monthly low Jun.5) seconded by $47.39 (78.6% Fibo of the December-April rally) and finally $44.23 (2019 low Jan.2).

Rabobank analysts are expecting the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% at this week’s meeting. Key Quotes “The vote is likely to be unan

Rabobank analysts are expecting the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged at 0.75% at this week’s meeting.Key Quotes“The vote is likely to be unanimous still, even as a number of influential MPC members have made some relatively hawkish speeches recently.” “The hawks are focusing on decent wage growth amid low unemployment, but the warnings with regards to rate increases are falling on deaf ears.” “The downside risks resulting from Brexit and trade uncertainties outweigh the upside risks of slightly elevated domestic price pressures. We forecast no rate hikes for this year and next.”

U.S. President Trump today confirmed, via Twitter, that he will be having an extended meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi at the G-20 summit in Ja

U.S. President Trump today confirmed, via Twitter, that he will be having an extended meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi at the G-20 summit in Japan. "Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be having an extended meeting next week at the G-20 in Japan. Our respective teams will begin talks prior to our meeting," Trump tweeted out. Major equity indexes, which started the day in the positive territory, stretched higher on these comments and were all rising more than 1% at the time of press.

Major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day sharply higher on Tuesday boosted by the upbeat performance of European stocks and decisive gains see

FAANG group outperforms on Tuesday to lift the technology sector.Hopes of a dovish Fed tone help stocks gain traction.Major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day sharply higher on Tuesday boosted by the upbeat performance of European stocks and decisive gains seen in the tech shares. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were adding 0.85% and 1.45%, respectively. In addition to fueling European stocks' rally, European Central Bank President Draghi's comments about the possibility of further rate cuts revived hopes of the Fed adopting a dovish tone tomorrow and helped Wall Street stage today's impressive start.  Among the 11-major S&P 500 sectors, which are all in the positive territory in the early trade, the Communication Services and the Technology indexes are adding 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively, to lead the gains as members of the FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) group all rise more than 1%. 

The USD/CAD pair failed to capitalize on the intraday uptick to 1-1/2 week tops and is currently placed in the neutral territory, still above the 1.34

A modest intraday USD uptick lacked conviction amid increasing Fed rate cut bets.A goodish pickup in Crude Oil prices underpinned Loonie and exerts some pressure.The USD/CAD pair failed to capitalize on the intraday uptick to 1-1/2 week tops and is currently placed in the neutral territory, still above the 1.3400 handle. The pair did get a minor intraday lift on the back of a modest pickup in the US Dollar demand led by some aggressive selling around the shared currency following the ECB President Mario Draghi's dovish remarks at the Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. However, the USD bulls lacked any strong conviction amid expectations of a dovish Fed statement and indications of a rate cut by the end of this year when it announces the latest monetary policy update at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday. This coupled with a goodish intraday up-move in Crude Oil prices underpinned demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and further collaborated towards keeping a lid on the pair's attempted up-move, rather prompted some selling at higher levels. On the economic data front, Tuesday's disappointing release of the Canadian manufacturing sales data for April was largely offset by mixed US housing market data for May and did little to provide any directional impetus. Meanwhile, the pair remains well within a broader trading range held over the past two trading session and hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained move in either direction before positioning for any meaningful intraday trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main rivals, has regained fresh upside traction and clinched 2-week highs at 97.7

DXY fades part of the earlier spike to 2-week highs.Yields of the US 10-year note approach the 2% mark.US housing data came in mixed during May.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a bundle of its main rivals, has regained fresh upside traction and clinched 2-week highs at 97.75 although it lost some momentum afterwards.US Dollar Index bid on dovish ECB, looks to FOMCThe index picked up extra pace today and reversed the initial pessimism in response to the dovish message from the ECB’s Mario Draghi at his speech at the Sintra Forum. In fact, Draghi assessed the possibility that the central bank could respond to a worsening scenario in Euroland via additional stimulus, including interest rate cuts. In the meantime, investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, where the ‘dots plot’ and fresh forecasts are seen in centre stage, all amidst rising speculations of an ‘insurance cut’ as early as in July. In the US data sphere, Housing Starts increased to 1.269M units, or 0.6%, and Building Permits rose to 1.294M units, or 0.3%.What to look for around USDMarkets participants continue to price in the likelihood of rate cuts by the Fed in the next months and this is somehow limiting upside potential in the index. While an ‘insurance cut’ looks likely sooner than later according to market chatter, the upcoming FOMC meeting should shed more light on to the issue and is expected to give further details on the impact of trade tensions on the US economy. However, and in spite of some disappointing results in US fundamentals as of late, the labour market remains strong, wage growth keep pushing higher and the overall economy looks healthy - specially when we consider the weakness in overseas economies – all begging the question whether current speculations of rate cuts are not overdone.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.10% at 97.63 and faces the next up barrier at 97.80 (monthly high Jun.3) seconded by 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 27). On the downside, a breach of 96.46 (low Jun.7) would open the door for 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28).

The USD/CHF pair climbed above the critical parity mark for the first time since June 3rd today but struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. As of

German 10-year Bond yield drops to all-time lows on Tuesday.US Dollar Index clings to daily gains above mid-97s.The USD/CHF pair climbed above the critical parity mark for the first time since June 3rd today but struggled to preserve its bullish momentum. As of wirting, the pair was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 0.9990. The heavy selling pressure surrounding the euro following European Central Bank President Draghi's dovish remarks helped the greenback gather strength against its rivals today and lifted the pair higher. However, Draghi's comments also weighed on the Treasury bond yields and helped safe-havens such as the CHF show resilience vs the dollar. As of writing, the 10-year German T-bond yield was at its all-time lows while the 10-year T-bond yield was erasing 2.6% on the day. While speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, Draghi noted interest rate cuts were still an option if they needed to provide more stimulus to boost inflation toward their target. Meanwhile, today's data published by the Eurostat revealed that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the eurozone dropped to 0.8% on a yearly basis in May from 1.3% in April. On the other hand, the U.S. Census Bureau today announced that housing starts declined by 0.9% on a monthly basis in May while building permits increased by 0.3%. Ahead of the FOMC's critical policy announcements tomorrow, the US Dollar Index didn't pay much attention to today's data and was last seen posting small daily gains at 97.63.Technical levels to watch for 

According to analysts at TD Securities, the US Fed should signal readiness to ease policy but stop short of committing to a near term cut. Key Quotes

According to analysts at TD Securities, the US Fed should signal readiness to ease policy but stop short of committing to a near term cut.Key Quotes“They will likely stress that they are monitoring risks on the economy and taking appropriate action to sustain the expansion.” “We expect the median 2019 dot to remain unchanged (reflecting a Fed on-hold) and the median 2020 dot to decline.” “FX: Stronger DXY but weaker broad USD, reflecting possible EM impact if rate cut narrative remains intact. We prefer holding short EURJPY exposure to neutralize USD direction.”  

Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, notes that the Canadian manufacturing sales dipped 0.6% lower in April while volume sales

Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, notes that the Canadian manufacturing sales dipped 0.6% lower in April while volume sales declined 0.8%.Key Quotes“The pull-back in manufacturing sales in April was not entirely surprising given an earlier soft international trade report for the month, and details were less concerning than the headline.” “And a very strong month of economic data for the prior month in March, including growth in the manufacturing sector, still leaves overall GDP growth tracking at a slightly above 2% rate for Q2.” “The removal of US steel & aluminum tariffs and Canadian retaliatory measures in May will help but rising US-China trade tensions appear to be weighing on the US industrial sector – and tight cross-border integration of production chains means some of that softness will spill over to Canada. That uncertainty, more than current economic data, is what we expect will keep the Bank of Canada firmly on hold in terms of interest rate policy for the foreseeable future.”    

Russia Industrial Output below expectations (1.5%) in May: Actual (0.9%)

Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 0.5% to 1.8% in May

Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 8.6% (May) vs previous 10.7%

Gold built on its strong intraday positive momentum and spiked to fresh session tops, beyond the $1350 level during the early North-American session.

Fed rate cut hopes provide a strong boost to the non-yielding commodity.The upsurge seemed rather unaffected by a turnaround in the risk sentiment.A modest pickup in the USD demand also does little to hinder the momentum.Gold built on its strong intraday positive momentum and spiked to fresh session tops, beyond the $1350 level during the early North-American session. Having eased in the previous two sessions, the precious metal caught some aggressive bids on Tuesday and the up-move could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the upcoming event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update. Expectations that the US central bank will lay the groundwork for a rate cut by the end of this year were evident from the ongoing slump in the US Treasury bond yields, which turned out to be one of the key factors benefitting the non-yielding yellow metal. Market bets for an eventual interest cut have been gradually increasing in the wake of the recent escalation in the US-China trade tensions and indications of the US economy losing steam, reinforced by weaker May monthly jobs report and softer inflation data. The intraday positive momentum seemed rather unaffected by a solid intraday turnaround in the global risk sentiment, as depicted by a strong rally across European equity markets and which tends to dent the precious metal's relative safe-haven status. Even a mildly positive tone surrounding the US Dollar, despite mixed US housing market data, also did little to dampen demand for the dollar-denominated commodity or stall the ongoing strong upsurge back closer to 14-month tops set last Friday.Technical levels to watch 

The selling bias around the European currency stays far from abated on Tuesday, forcing EUR/USD to recede further and print new 2-week lows in the 1.1

EUR/USD bounces off the 1.1180 region.EMU Economic Sentiment dropped to -20.2 in June.US housing data came in mixed during May.The selling bias around the European currency stays far from abated on Tuesday, forcing EUR/USD to recede further and print new 2-week lows in the 1.1180 region.EUR/USD weaker post-Draghi, dataSpot met a renewed wave of selling orders today after President Draghi left the door wide open for extra stimulus (including rate cuts) if the outlook on the region deteriorate further. Adding to the sour mood around EUR, the Economic Sentiment worsened in both Germany and the broader euro area, as shown by the latest ZEW survey for the month of June. Across the ocean, the US docket saw mixed results from the domestic housing sector, with Housing Starts dropping – albeit less than forecasted – to 1.269M units, or 0.6% and Building Permits up to 1.294M units, or 0.3%.What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB has now become the almost exclusive driver for the price action around the European currency, relegating to a secondary role the broad risk-appetite trends, USD-dynamics and trade tensions. Furthermore, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.17% at 1.1198 facing immediate contention at 1.1181 (low Jun.18) seconded by 1.1176 (monthly low Mar.7) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1356 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

United States Redbook Index (MoM): -2.4% (June 14) vs -2.6%

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 5.4% (June 14) vs 5%

Danske Bank analysts have changed their call for the ECB outlook and are now expecting it to cut rates by 20bp, introduce a tiering system, extended f

Danske Bank analysts have changed their call for the ECB outlook and are now expecting it to cut rates by 20bp, introduce a tiering system, extended forward guidance, and restart QE in a package which could come already in September on the back of Draghi's speech in Sintra this morning and Benoit Coeuré's interview in the Financial Times yesterday.Key Quotes“In ECB perspective, nose-diving inflation expectations and a higher probability of looming risks will materialise has caused a change in the change in call.” “At the annual ECB conference in Sintra, Portugal, Draghi gave another seminal speech, similar to 2017. However, this time, Draghi opened the door wide open to new easing where he was specific that 'coming weeks, the Governing Council will deliberate how our instruments can be adapted commensurate to the severity of the risk to price stability.' Importantly, there has been a huge change from ECB in past 12 days since the last GC meeting as ECB will now act if there is no improvement in the in the economic outlook, so that inflation to target is threatened which compares to ECB acting if downside risks materialise.” “We expect ECB to open for further easing in the July meeting, and announcement in September, alongside new staff projections, but also acknowledge a risk to earlier announcement should market and economic sentiment suffer.” “A Bloomberg source story just now suggested ECB to favour a rate cut as the primary tool.”

The data published by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that building permits in May rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis following April's 0.2% inc

The data published by the U.S. Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that building permits in May rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis following April's 0.2% increase and surpassed the analysts' estimate for a decline of 2.9%. Further details of the publication revealed that housing starts fell by 0.9% in the same period and missed the market expectation of -0.4%.  With the initial reaction, the US Dollar Index retreated from session highs and was last seen at 97.62, adding 0.1% on the day. 

United States Building Permits (MoM) below expectations (1.296M) in May: Actual (1.294M)

United States Building Permits Change above forecasts (-2.9%) in May: Actual (0.3%)

United States Housing Starts (MoM) came in at 1.269M, above expectations (1.239M) in May

Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) registered at -0.6%, below expectations (0.4%) in April

United States Housing Starts Change below forecasts (-0.4%) in May: Actual (-0.9%)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently crossed the wires saying that they have to do everything they can to solve the situation in Iran peacefully a

German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently crossed the wires saying that they have to do everything they can to solve the situation in Iran peacefully and added that there will be consequences if Iran doesn't uphold the nuclear pact.  Markets didn't pay much attention to these headlines as stock markets continue to cheer the dovish shift in the European Central Bank's tone. 

However, oversold conditions on hourly charts prompted some near-term short-covering move and assisted the pair to bounce back closer to the top end o

The AUD/USD pair traded with a bearish bias for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday, albeit has managed to trim a part of its early slide to 5-1/2 month lows.Dovish RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, showing that further monetary easing was more likely in the coming month further added to the recent bearish pressure.However, oversold conditions on hourly charts prompted some near-term short-covering move and assisted the pair to bounce back closer to the top end of a descending trend-channel, held over the past one week or so. Sustained move beyond the mentioned barrier might continue to fuel the recovery move and lift the pair back towards the previous multi-month lows support breakpoint, now turned resistance near the 0.6860-65 region. Meanwhile, fears about a further escalation in the US-China trade tensions might continue to weigh on the China-proxy Australian Dollar and keep a lid on any strong follow-through recovery ahead of the FOMC on Wednesday With oscillators on the daily chart still far from being in the oversold territory, rejection from the immediate resistance might turn the pair vulnerable to slide further towards challenging the 0.6800 handle - trend-channel support.AUD/USD 1-hourly chart 

The USD/JPY pair came under pressure on Tuesday as the sour market mood boosted the demand for traditional safe havens such as the JPY. As of writing,

10-year US T-bond yield drops more than 3% on Tuesday.US Dollar Index climbs to 97.70 area ahead of housing data.ECB's Draghi says they may need to ease policy if inflation didn't move toward the target.The USD/JPY pair came under pressure on Tuesday as the sour market mood boosted the demand for traditional safe havens such as the JPY. As of writing, the pair was trading at 108.22, losing 0.32% on a daily basis. European Central Bank President Draghi's dovish shift today weighed heavily on the yields of German Treasury bond yields and caused the US 10-year T-bond yield, which has a strong correlation with the USD/JPY pair, to turn south and fall sharply. At the moment, the 10-year reference is at its lowest level since September 2017 at 2.017%, erasing more than 3% on a daily basis. Draghi today said that the bank would need to ease policy if inflation didn't move toward their target. Moreover, Bloomberg reported that the ECB's preferred tool for stimulus was rate cuts.  On the other hand, the selling pressure surrounding the major European currencies allowed the greenback to outperform its rivals with the US Dollar Index climbing to 97.70 area and helped the pair limit its losses for the time being. Later in the session, housing starts and building permits data from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Meanwhile, the dovish shift in Draghi's tone allowed major European equity indexes to gain traction and now the S&P 500 Futures is rising 0.7% on the day to suggest a positive start in Wall Street, which could help the risk-sentiment turn positive in the second half of the day.Technical levels to consider 

Analysts at TD Securities point out that Canada’s manufacturing sales for April will be published at 8:30 ET, with TD looking for a 0.8% decline again

Analysts at TD Securities point out that Canada’s manufacturing sales for April will be published at 8:30 ET, with TD looking for a 0.8% decline against market expectations for a modest 0.4% increase.Key Quotes“Manufacturing PMIs have been signalling something ominous since the start of the year, and we think the shutdown of a large auto plant could provide the catalyst for a correction coming off a 2.1% advance in March.”

The GBP/USD pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained within the striking distance of 5-1/2 month lows set earlier this Tuesd

No-deal Brexit fears continue to dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.A modest USD uptick, though lacked any strong conviction, adds to the pressure.Tory leadership contest/ Carney's speech to remain in the spotlight on Tuesday.The GBP/USD pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained within the striking distance of 5-1/2 month lows set earlier this Tuesday. After the previous session's rejection slide from the 1.2600 handle, the pair dropped to the vicinity of the key 1.2500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Tuesday on reports that the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) Hammond is prepared to resign due to his disagreement over the Prime Minster May's spending plans.  This coupled with the fact that hardline Brexiteer Boris Johnson is still seen as a leading candidate to be Britain's next Prime Minister continued denting the already weaker sentiment surrounding the British Pound, albeit a combination of factors held investors from placing any aggressive bets and collaborated to the pair's range-bound price action.  Investors now seemed to wait for the outcome of the second round of voting for the Tory leadership before positioning for any meaningful intraday move. Meanwhile, the US Dollar failed to gain any strong traction amid firming expectations that the Fed will eventually move towards cutting interest rates by the end of this year, which further collaborated towards lending some support.  Apart from the incoming UK political headlines, traders will confront the release of US housing market data - housing starts and building permits, which followed by the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra might further contribute towards producing some meaningful trading opportunities later this Tuesday.Technical levels to watchYohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels to watch for and writes – “Initial support awaits at 1.2510 which is the fresh five-month low seen early in the day. Further down, 1.2475 was a stubborn support line in December 2018 and 1.2445 was the low point in early January.”  “Initial resistance awaits at 1.2558 which was the previous 2019 low set in late May. Next up, 1.2605 capped GBP/USD on Monday and serves as resistance. 1.2640 which provided support in early June and 1.2660 that held it up last week are next,” he added further.

The Russian Ruble is extending its upbeat momentum so far this week and is now taking USD/RUB to the area of 64.30, or 2-month lows. USD/RUB looks to

USD/RUB remains on the defensive near 64.30.RUB appreciation remains well in place so far.Russia GDP, Producer Prices, Industrial Production next on tap.The Russian Ruble is extending its upbeat momentum so far this week and is now taking USD/RUB to the area of 64.30, or 2-month lows.USD/RUB looks to dataThe solid pace around RUB remains well in place so far this week, extending the upside bias since June’s lows in the 65.80 region, down for the third consecutive week so far. The generalized appetite for Russian assets keeps sustaining the upbeat sentiment surrounding the currency, while the now lower probability of US sanctions has been also underpinning the sentiment. The improvement in RUB comes despite the Russian central bank (CBR) cut its key rate by 25 bps to 7.5% at its meeting last Friday, a decision largely anticipated by market participants however. The central bank has opened the door at the same time for further rate cuts in the next months, reaching the neutral rate (6%-7%) at some point in mid-2020. In addition, the CBR revised lower its end-of-year inflation forecast to 4.2%-4.7% and it now expects the economy to expand at an annualized 1.0%-1.5% this year. Later in the session, the Russian docket looks interesting enough in light of the release of GDP figures during the January-March period, Industrial Production figures and Producer Prices.What to look for around RUBThe ongoing down trend in inflation plus healthy economic fundamentals motivated the CBR to lower the key rate last week, hinting at the same time at the likeliness that further rate cuts remain well in on the table. In the meantime, rising appetite for Russian assets, carry-trade, expected higher oil prices, record-high speculative positioning and diminishing chances of US sanctions against the country are all sustaining the positive prospects around RUB.USD/RUB levels to watchAt the moment the pair is retreating 0.12% at 64.24 and a breakdown of 64.13 (monthly low Jun.17) would aim for 63.66 (monthly low Apr.23) and finally 61.61 (2019 low Mar. 20). On the other hand, the next hurdle is located at 64.72 (55-day SMA) seconded by 64.92 (100-day SMA) and then 65.59 (monthly high Jun.3).

U.S. President Trump recently noted that the euro weakened against the dollar after European Central Bank president Draghi announced more stimulus and

U.S. President Trump recently noted that the euro weakened against the dollar after European Central Bank president Draghi announced more stimulus and argued that the weaker euro was making it easy for Europe to compete against the United States.  "Draghi just announced more stimulus could come, which immediately dropped the euro against the dollar, making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the USA. They have been getting away with this for years, along with China and others," Trump tweeted out. The US Dollar Index eased slightly from its highs and was last seen up 0.08% on the day at 97.60.

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the US housing starts are expected to advance mildly in May, rising 0.4% m/m to 1,240k. Key Quotes “This would

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the US housing starts are expected to advance mildly in May, rising 0.4% m/m to 1,240k.Key Quotes“This would mark the third consecutive monthly increase for the series and its highest level since January. Similarly, building permits should have picked up modestly (+0.2% m/m) to 1,293k during the month.”

Adding to his earlier comments about Russia being open to new dates for the OPEC+ meeting, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that he saw th

Adding to his earlier comments about Russia being open to new dates for the OPEC+ meeting, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that he saw the OPEC+ supply output agreement getting extended at that meeting.  Crude oil prices didn't show a notable reaction to Novak's remarks and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was down 0.2% on the day at $51.80. The weekly API crude oil stock from the U.S. later in the day will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German ZEW survey offered the first glimpse at survey indicators for June, and the survey's expectations compo

Analysts at TD Securities note that the German ZEW survey offered the first glimpse at survey indicators for June, and the survey's expectations component fell sharply from -2.1 to -21.1, back near its late-2018 lows, and far below market expectations.Key Quotes“The Current Situation Index was slightly better than expected, however, falling only slightly to 7.8. On a sectoral basis, the deterioration in the index came from banks, the auto industry, pharmaceuticals, electronics, mechanical engineering, and retail, and suggests broad-based concern across the economy.”

The NZD/USD pair jumped around 25-pips in the last hour or so and spiked back closer to the previous session's swing high, around the 0.6515 region. T

A turnaround in the risk sentiment lends some support to riskier currencies – like the Kiwi.A modest pickup in the USD demand might now keep a lid on any meaningful recovery move.Traders now eye US economic docket for short-term impetus ahead of FOMC on Wednesday.The NZD/USD pair jumped around 25-pips in the last hour or so and spiked back closer to the previous session's swing high, around the 0.6515 region. The pair continued showing some resilience below the key 0.6500 psychological mark, with a sudden turnaround in the global risk sentiment prompting some short-covering around perceived riskier currencies - like the Kiwi. The ECB President Mario Draghi's dovish remarks in Sintra opened the door for an interest rate cut and boosted investors’ appetite for riskier assets, which was evident from a solid intraday bounce in the European equity markets.  Meanwhile, some renewed US Dollar buying interest, primarily led by some aggressive selling around the shared currency, turned out to be the only factor keeping a lid on any strong follow-through recovery move, at least for now. Hence, it remains to be seen if the attempted bounce is backed by any genuine buying or is solely led by intraday short-covering as market participants now look forward to the US economic docket for some fresh impetus. Tuesday's US economic docket - featuring the release of housing starts and building permits, might now be looked upon for short-term trading opportunities, though the key focus will remain on Wednesday's FOMC policy update.Technical levels to watch 

Standard Chartered analysts point out that their clients see the G20 summit on 28-29 June as a pivotal event that may determine the intensity of US-Ch

Standard Chartered analysts point out that their clients see the G20 summit on 28-29 June as a pivotal event that may determine the intensity of US-China trade tensions and the ensuing policy responses.Key Quotes“In the run-up to the summit in Osaka, President Trump continues to exert pressure on China on trade and other issues, while President Xi is preparing the nation for an extended trade war.” “We are convinced that a meeting between the two leaders is in the making. Trump has expressed a strong desire to meet Xi at the summit. While China has yet to confirm the meeting, we do not think it will waste an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to averting a trade war that could disrupt global economic growth.” “Xi and Trump will likely agree on the principles for the resumption of trade talks.” “We think the market may be too pessimistic about a trade deal within the next two to three months. The two sides appear to have reached an understanding on 90% of the issues after 11 rounds of talks; resolving the remaining issues will require more political will than time. Imposing additional US tariffs on all imports from China, which Trump has threatened in the absence of a deal, would likely take a big toll on the US economy in an election year.” “If the G20 summit fails to prevent an escalation of the trade war, we expect China’s government to deploy more fiscal stimulus, supplemented by credit expansion and a possible selective easing of property-market policies, to keep GDP growth above 6%. The authorities may also allow more FX flexibility, partly due to shifting fundamentals.”

TD Securities analysts point out that the ECB President Draghi opened the first full day of the ECB's Sintra conference with an extremely dovish speec

TD Securities analysts point out that the ECB President Draghi opened the first full day of the ECB's Sintra conference with an extremely dovish speech on monetary policy.Key Quotes“In it, he hinted at upcoming policy easing and changes to forward guidance (as soon as July), if the economy does not improve, and said that all tools would be on the table, including rate cuts and further QE. He suggested that the ECB's 2% inflation target should be changed to a symmetric target, meaning that policy might need to be left looser going forward.”

United Kingdom 10-y Bond Auction: 0.889% vs previous 1.109%

The Turkish Lira is extending the upside momentum in the first half of the week and is now dragging USD/TRY to fresh 3-day lows in the 5.82 region. US

USD/TRY extends the downside to 5.82 today.Turkey Industrial Production contracted 4% in April.Turkey Retail Sales contracted more than expected in April.The Turkish Lira is extending the upside momentum in the first half of the week and is now dragging USD/TRY to fresh 3-day lows in the 5.82 region.USD/TRY lower despite data, USD strengthThe Turkish currency is appreciating for the second session in a row on Tuesday despite the broad-base USD-buying and the recently published data releases in the domestic docket. In fact, the recovery in Turkish Industrial Production seems to have lost some shine in April, contracting more than expected at an annualized 4.0% and 1.0% on a monthly basis. Further publications also saw Retail Sales contracting 1.8% inter-month and 6.9% over the last twelve months. Earlier in the week, Quarterly 3-month Jobless Average ticked lower to 14.1% in March and the Budget deficit shrunk to $12.1 billion during May.What to look for around TRYThe Turkish Lira has been losing ground since monthly lows in the 5.65 region (June 5). At last week’s meeting, the CBRT left no doubts it will continue to support the current tight monetary conditions. However, the enduring disinflation process seen in past months opens the door to a potential shift from the central bank to a more accommodative stance, including the palpable chance of rate cuts despite this move on rates appears untimely in the near (and medium) term. Real headwinds for the Lira, however, remain well and sound and loom from the increasing likeliness of US sanctions and further escalation in US-Turkey tensions around the Russian S-400 defence system. It does not get better for TRY if we include in the equation the probable acceleration of outflows from the EM space in response to the deterioration of the US-China trade scenario and the plausible increase of domestic effervescence in the run up to the municipal elections in Istanbul due on June 23. That said, another move to the psychological yardstick at 6.00 the figure in the short-term horizon should be everything but ruled out.USD/TRY key levelsAt the moment the pair is down 0.48% at 5.8421 and a breach of 5.8174 (10-day SMA) would open the door to 5.6560 (low Jun.5) and then 5.6169 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, the next up barrier emerges at 5.9326 (high Jun.14) followed by 5.9893 (23.6% Fibo retracement of the 2019 rally) and finally 6.1516 (high May 23).

Russian news agencies reported the comments by the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, as he said that Moscow was open to new dates for a meeting

Russian news agencies reported the comments by the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, as he said that Moscow was open to new dates for a meeting of OPEC+ nations, including on July 12, as cited by Reuters. Novak further said that he had not yet discussed a change in meeting dates with his Saudi counterpart Al-Falih. Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh has proposed meeting from July 10-12.

WTI (futures on Nymex) extends its range trade around the 52 handle in the European session, unable to find a clear direction amid mixed market sentim

Divided between rising economic growth woes and Middle East tensions. Focus on risk trends and US API crude stocks data for fresh direction. WTI (futures on Nymex) extends its range trade around the 52 handle in the European session, unable to find a clear direction amid mixed market sentiment and ongoing Middle East tensions. The higher-yielding oil finds support from the risk-on action in the European stocks and the US equity futures following the European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Draghi’s rate cut talks. Meanwhile, the looming tensions in the Middle-East, in the face of two oil tankers attacked last Thursday and the US suspecting Iran behind the attacks, continue to keep the downside cushioned. However, any upside attempts lack follow-through amid mounting concerns over the global economic growth, dented by escalating US-China trade war.  Investors remain unnerved amid a sharp deterioration in the German business morale and falling inflation expectations across the globe. Markets now eagerly await the US weekly crude stockpiles data due to be published by the American Petroleum Institute at 2030 GMT for fresh hints on the US supply-side scenario that could help determine the next direction in the prices. WTI Technical Levels  

Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have been gaining bullish momentum and also recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart,

Having managed to defend the very important 200-day SMA, the USD/CHF pair regained positive traction and is now looking to break through a one-month-old descending trend-line resistance.The mentioned barrier coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.0238-0.9854 recent downfall and should now act as a key pivotal point for the pair's next leg of a directional move.Meanwhile, technical indicators on hourly charts have been gaining bullish momentum and also recovered from the negative territory on the daily chart, supporting prospects for an eventual breakout and an extension of the ongoing recovery from multi-month lows. Sustained move beyond the said confluence resistance now seems to set the stage for a possible move towards reclaiming the 1.0100 round figure mark with some intermediate resistance near mid-1.0000s (50% Fibo. level) and the 1.0075-80 horizontal zone. Alternatively, failure near the current resistance area, leading to a subsequent slide below 200-DMA support near the 0.9970-65 region might negate the constructive set-up and turn the pair vulnerable to break below the 0.9900 handle and retest multi-month lows.USD/CHF daily chart 

Jan von Gerich, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that the size and composition of any further ECB easing would naturally depend on the severity of

Jan von Gerich, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that the size and composition of any further ECB easing would naturally depend on the severity of the situation.Key Quotes“Given that there are few easy options and the potential to ease policy further, the ECB may again decide to put many smaller components together to come up with a package of measures. Such a package could consist of Strengthened forward guidance 10bp cut in the deposit rate along with leaving the door open for further cuts and introducing a tiered deposit system More net purchases of bonds” “Given that another round of easing measures will increase the risks central banks area taking and no so-called easy options are left the ECB will think carefully about how it wants to use its remaining easing capacity. We find the July meeting unlikely and tend to think that the decision could come in September at earliest.”

The GBP/JPY cross now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band just above mid-135.00s, o

No-deal Brexit fears continue to dent sentiment surrounding the British Pound.A turnaround in risk sentiment undermines JPY and helped ease the pressure.The second round of Tory leadership contest remains in the spotlight on Tuesday. The GBP/JPY cross now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band just above mid-135.00s, or 5-1/2 month lows. The cross extended last week's rejection slide from the 138.25-35 supply zone and remained under some heavy selling pressure for the fifth consecutive session on Tuesday - also marking its sixth day of the negative move in the previous seven. Given that hardline Brexiteer Boris Johnson is still seen as a leading candidate to be Britain's next Prime Minister, sentiment surrounding the British Pound remains fragile amid rising fears of a no-deal Brexit and kept exerting some pressure on the cross.
 
Adding to this reports that the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) Hammond is prepared to resign due to his disagreement over the Prime Minster May's spending plans further dented the already weaker sentiment. Meanwhile, a sudden turnaround in the risk sentiment, as depicted by a solid bounce in the European equity market following Draghi’s dovish comments on Tuesday, undermined the Japanese Yen’s safe-haven demand and helped limit further losses. Investors also seemed reluctant to place any aggressive bets and preferred to wait on the sidelines ahead of the second round of voting for the Tory leadership and the BoE Governor Mark Carney’s scheduled speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra later this Tuesday.Technical levels to watch 

The sentiment around the shared currency keeps deteriorating so far today and is now sending EUR/USD to clinch fresh 2-week lows in the 1.1180 region.

EUR/USD plummets to fresh multi-day lows near 1.1180.EMU Economic Sentiment dropped to -20.2 in June.EMU final May CPI rose 1.2% YoY. Core CPI rose 0.8%.The sentiment around the shared currency keeps deteriorating so far today and is now sending EUR/USD to clinch fresh 2-week lows in the 1.1180 region.EUR/USD offered on data, DraghiThe pair lost further momentum after the ZEW survey disappointed expectations for the current month, in line with previous gauges of sentiment and confidence in the region. In fact, the Economic Sentiment in the broader Euroland fell to -20.2, while the same gauge in Germany tumbled to -21.1. In addition German Current Conditions surprised to the upside at 7.8, albeit easing from May’s 8.2. Further data in the euro area saw headline consumer prices rising 1.2% on a year to May, while consumer prices stripping food and energy costs rose 0.8% from a year earlier. In the meantime, EUR remains well into the negative territory today following the dovish appreciations from President Mario Draghi at the ECB Forum in Sintra followed by the above-mentioned data releases.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.29% at 1.1185 facing immediate contention at 1.1181 (low Jun.18) seconded by 1.1176 (monthly low Mar.7) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1356 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

The latest comments are crossing the wires from the Bank of England (BOE) member of the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) Bowe, with the key points fou

The latest comments are crossing the wires from the Bank of England (BOE) member of the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) Bowe, with the key points found below. Expect Brexit will remain a risk to UK financial stability for some time. Assessment of Brexit risks requires utmost vigilance, especially in the light of the possibility of the UK’s leaving the EU co‐occurring with a global downturn. Complacency is the biggest risk for UK financial stability. Does not think FPC needs more tools at the moment.

The German ZEW headline numbers for June showed that the economic sentiment index arrived at -21.1 versus -5.9 expectations and -2.1 last. While the s

The German ZEW headline numbers for June showed that the economic sentiment index arrived at -21.1 versus -5.9 expectations and -2.1 last. While the sub-index current conditions figure jumped to 7.8 versus 6.0 expected and 8.2 booked previously, bettering market expectations. ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach noted: “The sharp drop in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment coincides with an increased uncertainty regarding the future development of the global economy and substantially worsened figures for the German economy at the beginning of the second quarter. The intensification of the conflict between the USA and China, the increased risk of a military conflict in the Middle East and the higher probability of a no-deal Brexit are all casting a shade on the global economic outlook. On top of this, German industry has been reporting worse than expected figures for production, exports and retail sales for April.” Meanwhile, the Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment for June arrived at -20.2 vs. -3.6 expected and -1.6 last.

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in May

In view of analysts at Danske Bank, China’s growth recovery is likely to be delayed by further trade war escalation, but stimulus is set to cushion th

In view of analysts at Danske Bank, China’s growth recovery is likely to be delayed by further trade war escalation, but stimulus is set to cushion the drag from higher uncertainty.Key Quotes“We look for growth to fall to 6.2% in 2019 from 6.6% in 2018. In 2020 we expect the economy to grow 6.1%.” “We look for a trade deal in H2, which should pave the way for a recovery in Q4. Uncertainty is elevated, though, and an all-out trade war that runs into 2020 would delay any lift to growth.” “We expect more policy stimulus with a further cut in the RRR and subsidies for consumer goods. USD/CNY to rise to 7.10 over the next quarter.” “China is set to face some headwinds from production moving to other Asian countries and US export controls in tech. China's likely response will be more focus on self-reliance, even more investments in the tech industry and new efforts to create a better business environment for foreign companies in order to attract FDI.” “China has stepped up measures to support the private sector and continues to highlight 'reform and opening'. We expect China to stay on a catching-up path and to surpass the US economy by 2030.”

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) below expectations (0%) in May: Actual (-0.1%)

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in May

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in May

According to Eurostat’s final reading of Eurozone CPI report, the consumer prices came in at 1.2% on a yearly basis, confirming the flash estimate. Wh

According to Eurostat’s final reading of Eurozone CPI report, the consumer prices came in at 1.2% on a yearly basis, confirming the flash estimate. While the core figures steadied at 0.8% versus 0.8% expected.        On a monthly basis, the bloc’s CPI figure for April rose 0.1% versus 0.2% expectations and 0.7% previous. while the core CPI numbers arrived at % versus 0.0% expected and 0.0% last (revised down from 0.9%).Key Details (via Eurostat):“The lowest annual rates were registered in Cyprus (0.2%), Portugal (0.3%) and Greece (0.6%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Romania (4.4%), Hungary (4.0%) and Latvia (3.5%). Compared with April 2019, annual inflation fell in sixteen Member States, remained stable in five and rose in six. In May 2019, the highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from services (+0.47 percentage points, pp), followed by energy (+0.38 pp), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.29 pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.08 pp). “ The focus remains on the bloc’s inflation, as the euro 5y5y inflation swap forward, a gauge for inflation expectations, plunged to the historical low of 1.1375% in June while the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi, in his dovish Sintra speech, said: “In the absence of improvement, such that the sustained return of inflation to our aim is threatened, additional stimulus will be required”. Eurozone money markets fully price in an ECB rate cut by Dec 2019 after Draghi’s dovish Sintra speech  

European Monetary Union Trade Balance s.a. below expectations (€18.5B) in April: Actual (€15.3B)

European Monetary Union ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment came in at -20.2 below forecasts (-3.6) in June

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.2%) in May

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) meets forecasts (0.8%) in May

European Monetary Union Trade Balance n.s.a. came in at €15.7B, above expectations (€8.8B) in April

Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment registered at -21.1, below expectations (-5.9) in June

Germany ZEW Survey - Current Situation came in at 7.8, above forecasts (6) in June

Spain 3-Month Letras Auction: -0.476% vs -0.49%

The USD/CAD pair struggled to capitalize on an intraday uptick to 1-1/2 week tops and remained well within its two-day-old consolidative trading range

Weaker Oil prices undermine Loonie and extend some support.Tumbling US bond yields weigh on the USD and capped gains.Traders eye US/Canadian data for some impetus ahead of FOMC.The USD/CAD pair struggled to capitalize on an intraday uptick to 1-1/2 week tops and remained well within its two-day-old consolidative trading range, above the 1.3400 handle. The pair managed to gain some positive traction on Tuesday and was now looking to build on last week's solid rebound from multi-month lows amid a mildly weaker tone around Crude Oil prices. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Oil prices fell for the second day of Tuesday amid signs that global economic growth is being hit by the US-China trade war and undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie. The uptick, however, lacked any bullish conviction as investors seemed convinced that the Fed will eventually move to cut interest rates by the end of this year. This was evident from some renewed weakness in the US Treasury bond yields - further aggravated by the prevailing risk-off environment, which kept the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and turned out to be one of the key factors keeping a lid on any strong follow-through up-move for the major. Hence, the key focus will remain on Wednesday's FOMC monetary policy update. The US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged but the updated economic/interest rate projections will play an important role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help investors determine the pair's next leg of a directional move. In the meantime, Tuesday's economic docket - featuring the second-tier releases of housing starts and building permits from the US, along with monthly Canadian manufacturing sales data will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

Japanese Cabinet Office maintained he economic assessment for June, in its monthly report. However, the view of corporate profits was upgraded to firm

Japanese Cabinet Office maintained he economic assessment for June, in its monthly report. However, the view of corporate profits was upgraded to firm at high level, the report showed.

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that today, we’ve got a full day of the ECB Forum in Sintra ahead of us and today’s agenda includes an introductory s

Deutsche Bank analysts point out that today, we’ve got a full day of the ECB Forum in Sintra ahead of us and today’s agenda includes an introductory speech from Draghi this morning, comments from various ECB officials including Guindos, Praet, Lane and Coeure, and then a policy panel featuring Draghi, the BoE’s Carney and former Fed Vice Chair Fischer this afternoon.Key Quotes“It remains to be seen what will come of the Forum; however, as we mentioned yesterday, we have seen markets move sharply in previous years following comments that emerged from Sintra and with there being plenty of chatter about potentially more stimulus coming from the ECB, it’s worth watching it closely.” “In his opening remarks last night, Draghi declined to discuss policy or the current outlook, instead keeping his comments focused on the conference and on introducing Olivier Blanchard, who used his keynote address to argue for greater use of fiscal policy in the next downturn; an unusual topic for a central banking conference!”

According to ECB Watch, as cited by Reuters, Eurozone money markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) by December th

According to ECB Watch, as cited by Reuters, Eurozone money markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) by December this year after President Draghi opened doors for rate cuts in his speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra.Draghi’s speech: Further cuts in policy interest rates remain part of our toolsThe EUR/USD pair is seen consolidating the 50-pips drop seen following Draghi’s dovish comments. The spot wavers near two-week lows of 1.1188, down -0.25% on the day.

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Italian Finance Minister Tria, with the key headlines found below. Domestic macroeconomic situation is no

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Italian Finance Minister Tria, with the key headlines found below. Domestic macroeconomic situation is not very good. Position of Italy in Europe is solid. We expect a solid economic recovery in the second half of the year. Hopes growth in the EU will create space for more spending -reiterates budget deficit this year will be 2.1-2.2%.

The selling pressure is now building up around the shared currency and is dragging EUR/USD to fresh daily lows in the 1.1200 neighbourhood. EUR/USD of

EUR/USD eases to 1.1200 on dovish Draghi.ECB’s Draghi said rate cuts remains a tool.German, EMU ZEW survey coming up next.The selling pressure is now building up around the shared currency and is dragging EUR/USD to fresh daily lows in the 1.1200 neighbourhood.EUR/USD offered after Draghi mentioned rate cutsSpot has come under quick and strong selling pressure after President Draghi said at the ECB Forum in Sintra that interest rate cuts remain in the bank’s toolbox. The central-banker also emphasized the flexibility of the ECB to use all measures in order to push inflation to the bank’s target, adding that the APP still has considerable room. Draghi also reiterated that risks to the outlook remains tilted to the downside. Later in the day, the German/EMU ZEW survey will give markets and idea of the investors’ sentiment in the region, while final May inflation figures in Euroland are unlikely to be a market-mover today.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.16% at 1.1200 facing immediate contention at 1.1194 (low Jun.18) seconded by 1.1176 (monthly low Mar.7) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1356 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

Having failed ahead of the 122.00 handle, the EUR/JPY cross witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround and tumbled to 1-1/2 week lows in reaction in the

Draghi opens the door for more rate cuts and prompts some aggressive selling around the Euro.The prevailing risk-off mood underpins the JPY’s safe-haven demand and adds to the pressure.Having failed ahead of the 122.00 handle, the EUR/JPY cross witnessed a dramatic intraday turnaround and tumbled to 1-1/2 week lows in reaction in the last hour. The shared currency came under some intense selling pressure after the ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, opened the doors for more rate cuts and said that negative rates have proven to be a very important tool. Draghi further added that QE still has considerable headroom and indicators for the coming quarters point to lingering softness, clearly pointing to a shift to a more dovish bias moving forward and exerted some heavy pressure on the common currency. The cross plunged to the 121.20-15 region and was further pressurized by the prevailing bid tone surrounding the safe-haven Japanese Yen, underpinned by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent US-China trade tensions. Moving ahead, Tuesday's economic docket features the release of German ZEW survey for June along with the final Euro-zone inflation figures for May, which will now be looked upon for some fresh impetus and grab some short-term trading opportunities.Technical levels to watch 

In its latest economic forecasts for Summer 2019, the German Ifo institute on Tuesday cut the 2020 growth forecast for the German economy to 1.7% vs.

In its latest economic forecasts for Summer 2019, the German Ifo institute on Tuesday cut the 2020 growth forecast for the German economy to 1.7% vs. 1.8% previously. The Ifo cited that the weakness in Germany’s industrial sector seems to be spilling over into labor market and domestic economy. Ifo economist Timo Wollmershaeuser said: “There is a diverging economic development: the export-oriented manufacturing sector, which accounts for about a quarter of economic output, is in recession.”  “However, there are increasing signs that the weakness in the industrial sector is gradually spilling over into the domestic economy via the labour market and value creation chains.”

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, expects no change from Bank Indonesia, with the 7d reverse repo likely to be maint

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, expects no change from Bank Indonesia, with the 7d reverse repo likely to be maintained at 6% on Thursday 20th June, but think this meeting is a much closer call than recent ones.Key Quotes“BI is edging towards a rate cut amid low inflation and slowing activity, but will likely want to see further signs of IDR stability before pulling the trigger to begin reversing the 175bp of hikes implemented in 2018.” “We think it is premature for BI to ease policy at present given the risks of IDR weakness. Indeed there are a significant minority of analysts (5/28 in Bloomberg) looking for policy easing, suggesting that IDR may find some support if BI does not ease, but could drop further if it does.” “Nonetheless, various officials are openly discussing prospects for rate cuts including BI Governor Warjiyo who highlighted yesterday that there is “room to lower interest rates”, while acknowledging that the market conditions are “still full of uncertainties”. The global backdrop where markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts is conducive to easing by central banks across Asia but we think BI will want to wait for uncertainties to fade before easing.”

In view of Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, EUR/GBP is moving towards 0.90, in line with their expectations with macro surprise

In view of Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, EUR/GBP is moving towards 0.90, in line with their expectations with macro surprises continuing  to be slightly negative versus the euro area and the global backdrop likely favours a dose of dovishness from the BoE that the ECB will not match.Key Quotes“A near-term key event will be how the ECB handles itself at Sintra. We think the bar for surprises is high and continue to expect the EUR leg to push EUR/GBP higher.”

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the USD/JPY has spent the past week or so consolidating its recent losses but remains on the defe

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the USD/JPY has spent the past week or so consolidating its recent losses but remains on the defensive following its rejection from the 20 day ma at 108.81.Key Quotes“The market stays immediately offered below the near term downtrend at 108.94. Our initial target is the 107.27 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, then the 78.6% retracement at 105.87. Above the near term downtrend, minor resistance comes in at the 110.84 April 10 low and the 111.23 200 day moving average. These guard the 2015-2019 112.27 downtrend.” “We look for the market to remain capped by its 112.20 2015-2019 downtrend, only above here would target the 114.55 October 2018 high.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is on the wires now, via Reuters, delivering a scheduled introductory speech on the second d

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is on the wires now, via Reuters, delivering a scheduled introductory speech on the second day of the ECB Forum on Central banking in Sintra, Portugal.Key Headlines:Monetary policy can always achieve its objective alone, but especially in Europe where public sectors are large, it can do so faster and with fewer side effects if fiscal policies are aligned. If we are to deliver that value of inflation in the medium term, inflation has to be above that level at some time in the future. APP still has considerable headroom. The limits we establish on our tools are specific to the contingencies we face. We will use all the flexibility within our mandate to fulfil our mandate.   And we will do so again to answer any challenges to price stability in the future. Symmetry means not only that we would not accept persistently low inflation, but also that there was no cap on inflation at 2%. All these options were raised and discussed at our last meeting.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has said that cutting interest rates is part of the bank's toolkit, completing a dovish reversal by the Frankfurt-based institution. EUR/USD has dropped from around 1.1230 to nearly 1.1200. more to come

The selling pressure around the British Pound stays well and sound today and is now helping EUR/GBP to climb further and print fresh 5-month tops in t

EUR/GBP moves to new multi-month tops beyond 0.8970.B.Johson remains the frontrunner in the race to succeed T.May.German official said there is no chance to renegotiate withdrawal deal.The selling pressure around the British Pound stays well and sound today and is now helping EUR/GBP to climb further and print fresh 5-month tops in the 0.8970/75 band.EUR/GBP focused on UK politicsThe rally in the European cross remains everything but abated so far today, up for the seventh week in a row and gaining nearly 6% since early May lows in the sub-0.8500 region. The relentless sell off in the Sterling has been sustaining the up move in the cross to levels last seen in mid-January, always sustained by increasing uncertainty around UK politics, lack of any progress in the Brexit negotiations and deteriorating UK fundamentals. No news regarding the race to Number 10, where former London mayor and Brexiteer Boris Johnson remains the clear frontrunner. Later in the day, ECB’s M.Draghi will speak at the Sintra Forum ahead of final CPI figures in Euroland for the month of May and the release of the ZEW survey. In the UK docket, BoE’s M.Carney will also speak in Sintra ahead of the central bank’s meeting tomorrow.What to look for around GBPHeightened uncertainty around the Brexit negotiations and May’s successor keeps the pressure on the Sterling intact for the time being. In the UK economy, recent results from the labour market lent some oxygen to GBP, although the broader softness in fundamentals remain the name of the game. Additionally, the current steady stance from the Bank of England appears justified by below-target inflation figures, downbeat results from key economic fundamentals and somewhat slowing momentum in wage inflation pressures, all adding to speculations of a ‘no-hike’ this year despite some calls signalling a potential hike in November.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is gaining 0.16% at 0.8964 and a break above 0.8974 (monthly high Jun.17) would expose 0.9062 (low Jan.11) and finally 0.9092 (2019 high Jan.3). On the other hand, initial support lines up at 0.8871 (low Jun.12) followed by 0.8863 (21-day SMA) and then 0.8826 (low Jun.5).

Gold prices edged higher through the early European session on Tuesday and spiked to fresh session tops, closer to $1350 level in the last hour. A com

The USD remains on the defensive and helped regain positive traction on Tuesday.Reviving safe-haven demand provides an additional boost and remained supportive.Tuesday's US housing data eyed for some impetus ahead of FOMC on Wednesday.Gold prices edged higher through the early European session on Tuesday and spiked to fresh session tops, closer to $1350 level in the last hour. A combination of supporting factors helped the commodity to regain some positive traction on Tuesday and built on the previous session's rebound from an intraday low level of $1333. The US Dollar came under some renewed selling pressure on Monday following the release of Empire State Manufacturing Index and underpinned demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The latest disappointment cemented expectations that the Fed will eventually move to cut interest rates by the end of this year and was evident from a fresh leg of downslide in the US Treasury bond yields, which further collaborated to driving flows towards the non-yielding yellow metal. This coupled with reviving safe-haven demand, amid fears of a further escalation in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, provided an additional boost to the precious metal and remained supportive of the follow-through goodish up-move. The US-China trade tensions showed no signs of a potential de-escalation after the US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross recently turned down chances of any breakthrough from the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart at the sidelines of the upcoming G-20 meeting. It, however, remains to be seen if bulls are able to capitalize on the positive momentum or refrain from placing any further aggressive bets as the market focus remains on this week's key event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday. In the meantime, Tuesday's US economic docket - featuring the second-tier releases of housing starts and building permits will now be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1244 Today Daily Change 25 Today Daily Change % 0.23 Today daily open 1.1218 Trends Daily SMA2

EUR/USD continues to rebound from recent lows in the vicinity of 1.1200 the figure.The next target to the upside emerges at the 1.1265/69 band, where coincide the 100-day and 10-day SMAs. The pair needs to surpass this area in the short-term in order to get a chance to re-test the key 200-week SMA in the mid-1.1300s, coincident at the same time with monthly peaks.A move below 1.1200 should trigger a deeper pullback to, initially, 1.1176 ahead of 2019 lows at 1.1106 recorded on May 23.EUR/USD daily chart   

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 97.4 Today Daily Change 15 Today Daily Change % -0.15 Today daily open 97.55 Trends Daily

The recent up move in DXY appears to have met a tough hurdle in the 97.60 region so far this week.The index continues to hover around the 55-day and 21-day SMAs in the mid-97.00s. The greenback needs to clear this area on a sustainable basis to allow a test of March high at 97.71, considered the last defence for a move to the 98.00 mark and beyond.In the meantime, the 200-day SMA and the multi-month support line in the mid-96.00s should hold the downside and keep the constructive bias intact.DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 121.64 Today Daily Change 28 Today Daily Change % -0.10 Today daily open 121.76 Trends Daily SMA

EUR/JPY is looking to stabilize below the recently breached support at 122.00 the figure.While further consolidation is likely in the near term, a breach of this area of contention should expose recent lows in the 120.80/75 band ahead of 2019 lows in sub-119.00 levels (‘flash crash’ in early January).On the broader outlook, the bearish bias on the cross remains intact below the multi-month resistance line, today at 124.92.EUR/JPY daily chart  

German ZEW Survey/ Eurozone Final CPIs Overview The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 0900 GMT i

German ZEW Survey/ Eurozone Final CPIs OverviewThe ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 0900 GMT in the EU session later today, reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next six months. The headline Economic Sentiment Index is expected to drop further to -5.9 in June as against a -2.1-reading booked in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Current Situation Sub-Index is likely to arrive at 6.0 versus an 8.2 jump recorded in last month.      Alongside the German data release, the Eurostat will publish the Eurozone's inflation final estimate for May. Consumer prices are seen arriving at 1.2% on a yearly basis, confirming the flash estimate while the core figures are seen unchanged at 0.8%. On a monthly basis, the CPI data for May is expected to come in at 0.2% versus 0.7% previous.How could they affect EUR/USD?FXStreet´s own Analyst, Haresh Menghani writes: “From a technical perspective, bearish traders are likely to wait for a sustained weakness below the 1.1200 temporary support - marking 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1107-1.1348 recent up-move, before positioning for any further depreciating move. A convincing breakthrough will suggest the resumption of the prior bearish trend and turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the slide back towards challenging the 1.1100 round figure mark with some intermediate support near mid-1.1100s.” “On the flip side, the 1.1250-55 area (38.2% Fibo. level) now becomes immediate strong resistance and is closely followed by 100-day SMA near the 1.1270 region, which if cleared decisively might negate the near-term bearish bias and prompt a near-term short-covering move,” Haresh adds.Key NotesPreview: Draghi’s speech at ECB Forum in Sintra Eurozone: German ZEW and ECB’s Sintra conference in focus - TDS EUR/USD: A rare fledgling EUR uptrend forming - BAMLAbout German ZEWThe Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).About Eurozone CPIThe Eurozone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).  

Meanwhile, the pair has been oscillating within a broader trading range over the past one week or so, forming a rectangular chart pattern. A rectangle

The USD/JPY pair came under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and extended the previous session's pullback from the 108.75-80 supply zone.The downfall has now dragged the pair back towards a short-term ascending trend-line support extending from five-month lows touched early this month.Meanwhile, the pair has been oscillating within a broader trading range over the past one week or so, forming a rectangular chart pattern. A rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms as a trading range during a pause in the trend - bearish in this case. Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart have managed to recover from the oversold territory and again started gaining negative traction on the 4-hourly chart, reinforcing the near-term bearish set-up and increasing prospects for an eventual breakdown. However, traders are likely to wait for a sustained weakness below the 108.00 round figure mark before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move ahead of the next big event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.USD/JPY 4-hourly chart 

Following are the comments by Germany's European Affairs Minister, Michael Roth, as he says that there is no chance of renegotiating Brexit withdrawal

Following are the comments by Germany's European Affairs Minister, Michael Roth, as he says that there is no chance of renegotiating Brexit withdrawal agreement. Nothing further is reported on the same.

Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, points out that two weeks ago, the market bought EUR/USD as Fed officials hinted rate cuts cou

Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, points out that two weeks ago, the market bought EUR/USD as Fed officials hinted rate cuts could be coming and the ECB revealed a reluctance to follow the Fed down the road of monetary easing.Key Quotes“Today, Draghi will get a second chance to talk down the EUR when he speaks at Sintra. He will have to come up big, i.e. signal rate cuts and/or that QE is coming, to convince the market to sell EUR/USD before the Fed likely makes a dovish shift tomorrow. It is crunch time for the ECB and the Fed and we stick to our call for EUR/USD to rise to 1.15 in 3M as the Fed is set to ‘out-ease’ the ECB.”

Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) below expectations (-2.5%) in April: Actual (-4%)

Austria HICP (YoY) unchanged at 1.7% in May

Austria HICP (MoM) down to 0% in May from previous 0.3%

In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has eroded the 2019 uptrend at 1.2570 and looks set for further losses to the 1.2444 Dece

In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair has eroded the 2019 uptrend at 1.2570 and looks set for further losses to the 1.2444 December 2018 low. Key Quotes “The market now stays directly offered below the 7th June high at 1.2763. It will need to regain the February low at 1.2772 on a closing basis in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure and avert further losses to the 1.2444 December 2018 low. This is the last defence for 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from 2016.” “Above the 200 day moving average at 1.2937. This would target the 1.3185/97 April and May highs.”

Matthew Hassan, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the minutes of the June RBA Board meeting show the decision to cut the cash rate by 25bp at that mee

Matthew Hassan, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the minutes of the June RBA Board meeting show the decision to cut the cash rate by 25bp at that meeting was driven by a revised assessment of spare capacity in the labour market and that the Board expects to ease policy further.Key Quotes“We continue to expect a further 25bp rate cut in August and a final 25bp cut in November.” “The minutes are clear on the prospect of further cuts, noting in the concluding paragraph that “… it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead”. In the lexicon of RBA statements, “period ahead” signals that policy is ‘live’ in coming meetings but stops short of indicating an imminent move at the next meeting.” “Overall, the minutes confirm more easing is on the way. Board members appear very much aligned to the Governor’s views, particularly around the labour market. That said, the ‘tone’ is not urgent in the sense that growth outlook still does not seem to be viewed as that challenging and low inflation is not a driving force behind the easing.” “We continue to see the next 25bp rate cut coming in August and a final 25bp cut in November.”

The Iranian President Rouhani is out on the wires now, via Reuters, offering some conciliatory comments amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions,

The Iranian President Rouhani is out on the wires now, via Reuters, offering some conciliatory comments amid escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions, in the face of the recent attacks on oil tankers. Rouhani said that Iran will not wage war against any nation. Earlier today, China’s State Councillor Wang urged all sides to ease Gulf region tension.

The AUD/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below mid-0.6800s, or 5-1/2

The RBA minutes showed consensus over further monetary easing and weighed on the Aussie.A subdued USD demand extended some support and helped limit deeper losses, at least for now.Investors now look forward to the US housing market data for some short-term trading impetus.The AUD/USD pair now seems to have entered a bearish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below mid-0.6800s, or 5-1/2 month lows. The pair extended its recent pullback from levels beyond the key 0.70 psychological mark and remained under some selling pressure for the fifth consecutive session, also marking its sixth day of a negative move in the previous seven. Tuesday's slide during the Asian session came after minutes of the latest RBA monetary policy meeting held on June 4 showed policymakers saying that further monetary easing was more likely in the coming month. The explicit signal for yet another interest rate cut, coupled with fears of a further escalation in the US-China trade tensions further dented the already weaker sentiment surrounding the China-proxy Australian Dollar. The bearish pressure now seems to have receded, at least for the time being, amid a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Dollar, which was slightly undermined by Monday's dismal Empire State Manufacturing Index. In fact, manufacturing activity in the New York region posted a record drop in June and fell into contraction territory for the first time in more than two years, also marking its weakest level since October 2016. Investors might also be reluctant to place any aggressive bets ahead of the next big event risk - the latest FOMC monetary policy update on Wednesday, which might further collaborate towards helping limit deeper losses.  Tuesday's US economic docket features the release of housing market data - housing starts and building permits, which will be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

The bid tone surrounding the shared currency remains well and sound so far this week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs in the boun

EUR/USD moves to the 1.1235/40 band, or daily highs.ECB Draghi speaks at the Sintra Forum.German, EMU ZEW survey next on the docket in Euroland.The bid tone surrounding the shared currency remains well and sound so far this week and is now lifting EUR/USD to the area of daily highs in the boundaries of 1.1240.EUR/USD now looks to Draghi, dataSpot is extending the optimism in the first half of the week, putting further distance from Monday’s lows in the 1.1200 neighbourhood amidst some selling pressure around the buck. In the meantime, US-China trade tensions and rumours on potential rate cut by the Fed in the near term continue to be the exclusive drivers of the markets’ sentiment for the time being. Later in the day, President M.Draghi will speak at the ECB Forum in Sintra (Portugal), while the publication of the ZEW survey in Germany and Euroland should also keep the attention on the European currency.What to look for around EURThe broad-based risk-appetite trends and USD-dynamics should dictate the sentiment surrounding the European currency for the time being, all in combination with developments from the US-China trade spat. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini. EUR, however, is expected to remain under scrutiny amidst the renewed dovish stance from the ECB and the ongoing slowdown in the region.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.11% at 1.1230 and a break above 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1356 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the other hand, initial support aligns at 1.1202 (low Jun.14) seconded by 1.1200 (low Jun.6) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30).

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that “we will conduct policy to boost inflation and wages”. Addi

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda is back on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that “we will conduct policy to boost inflation and wages”. Additional Comments: We need to continue easing persistently.

The Research Team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) offers EUR/USD outlook amid bullish technical setup and positioning model. Key Quotes: "Cumu

The Research Team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) offers EUR/USD outlook amid bullish technical setup and positioning model. Key Quotes: "Cumulative EUR/USD price action had reset to flat, offsetting depreciation of the last 3 months. The broader USD trend has faltered and rolled over, with the MAA breadth reverting to just +2 after briefly capping at +9 in April, consistent with USD selling we saw in our proprietary flows. The short-dated SDR flows in EUR/USD leaned more toward calls last week on the back of a robust pickup in volumes. Our positioning model is showing a rare fledgling EUR uptrend forming with rising MAA, supported by bullish Up/Down vol and Residual Skew.  A wedge bottom pattern is confirmed and targets 1.1461, 1.1545, 1.1660 and possibly 1.1830. We favor being long or buying a dip into the mid-1.12s and, while 1.11 holds, looking for a rally to aforementioned targets. A base near 1.11 and breakouts above the 50d SMA, trend line, prior peaks, 100d SMA and April high suggest an uptrend is underway." 

According to analysts at Danske Bank, focus today will be on the ECB Forum at Sintra, where ECB President Mario Draghi will give an introductory speec

According to analysts at Danske Bank, focus today will be on the ECB Forum at Sintra, where ECB President Mario Draghi will give an introductory speech at 10.00 CEST and also participate in a panel with the Bank of England's Mark Carney and former Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer at 16.00 CEST.Key Quotes“We expect Draghi to strike a dovish tone at the conference.” “On the data front, we have final Euro inflation for May and the German ZEW sentiment index for June. In the US, data on building permits and housing starts are due to be released. Housing should perform well following the sharp decline in mortgage rates and high consumer confidence.” “The Nordics have been resilient in general in the face of recent global weakness, with exports still supporting growth, but domestically, the Nordics are moving in different directions. We see very little domestic demand growth in Sweden and it is also slowing markedly in Finland. Norway, on the other hand, is supported by oil investments. The Danish economy is slowly decelerating with growth still above trend.”

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to hog the limelight in a data-busy European session ahead. Draghi is due to deliv

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s speech is likely to hog the limelight in a data-busy European session ahead. Draghi is due to deliver an introductory speech at 0800 GMT on the second day of the ECB Forum on Central banking in Sintra, Portugal. He is scheduled to speak for about 30 minutes and hence, he could throw some light on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook, in the face of faltering economic growth and escalating trade war. Michael Hewson, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, noted: With ECB President Mario Draghi leaving at the end of October, and the economy in Europe floundering, today’s speech in Sintra, Portugal at the ECB central bank forum, could offer further clues as to how much further the ECB can look at monetary easing, over and above the September TLTRO program.”  “With inflation once again sliding back close to 1% in May, markets are slowly coming to the conclusion that the ECB is operating at the limits of what it can actually do by way of conventional monetary policy,” Michael added. It's worth noting that during his speech on the first day of the Sintra Forum on Monday, Draghi did not touch upon the topic of monetary policy, although he did speak about bettering the Eurozone. Keynotes Eurozone: German ZEW and ECB’s Sintra conference in focus - TDS EUR/USD flirts with 50-hour MA ahead of German ZEW survey, Draghi's speech EUR/JPY technical analysis: 23.6% Fibo. offers nearest support before 121.25/30, 120.78 About Draghi’s speech As part of his job in the Governing Council, he gives press conferences in the back of how the ECB observes the current European economy. President's comments may determine positive or negative the Euro's trend in the short-term. Usually, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).

In light of advanced data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second day in a row, now by

In light of advanced data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, investors trimmed their open interest positions for the second day in a row, now by just 335 contracts. In the same direction, volume shrunk by around 81.3K contracts, printing the third drop in a row.USD/JPY extra dips remain on the cardsUSD/JPY is losing some ground after a positive start of the week amidst shrinking open interest and volume. That said, while the continuation of the sideline theme looks likely in the short-term horizon, occasional drops should not be discarded for the time being.

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD is attempting to recover from approximately 1.1200 and focus remains on the 200 week ma at 1

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD is attempting to recover from approximately 1.1200 and focus remains on the 200 week ma at 1.1348 and the 200 day ma at 1.1356.Key Quotes“Dips lower will find initial support at 1.1200 and will ideally be contained by 1.1175. To really ignite upside interest, we suspect a close above 1.1358 is needed to target initially the 1.1570 2019 high. We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point.” “Support at 1.1110/06 is regarded as the break down point to the 2018-2019 support line at 1.1027 and the 1.0814 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.”

Despite trading near yearly lows, a 4-month old descending support-line limits the GBP/USD pair’s immediate declines during early Tuesday.

Descending trend-line from mid-February question bears targeting December bottom and YTD lows amid oversold RSI.21-DMA acts as immediate resistance to watch during the pullback.Despite trading near yearly lows, a 4-month old descending support-line limits the GBP/USD pair’s immediate declines as it trades near 1.2535 ahead of the UK open on Tuesday. In addition to a downward sloping trend-line from mid-February, at 1.2525, oversold levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) also signal brighter chances of its pullback to 1.2580 and then to 1.2660 resistances. Further, the break of 1.2660 enables the pair’s rally to 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level near 1.2660 and the month’s high surrounding 1.2765. Given the bears dominate price sentiment and drag the quote under 1.2525 on a daily closing basis, December 2018 low near 1.2477 and the current year bottom around 1.2438 could flash on their radars.GBP/USD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected 

In view of analysts at TD Securities, today's German ZEW report will give us some of the first survey data for the month of June, and a better idea of

In view of analysts at TD Securities, today's German ZEW report will give us some of the first survey data for the month of June, and a better idea of how much global trade tensions are weighing on investor sentiment.Key Quotes“With the détente in the US-EU auto tariff spat having been announced shortly after the last ZEW report was published, that should help to ease local worries to some extent. Markets are looking for the expectations component to worsen from -2.1 to -5.8 in June, but we see upside risks and look for a smaller fall to -3.0 instead. For the current assessment, we look for a decline from 8.2 to 7.0 (mkt: 6.1).” “The first full day of the ECB's Sintra conference also takes place, with President Draghi due to speak at 9am, Vice President de Guindos at 9:30, Chief Economist Lane at 11:30am, and a discussion panel featuring Draghi, Carney, and Yellen at 3pm (all times BST).”

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted open interest increased for the fourth straight session on Monday, this time by just above 1K con

CME Group’s flash data for GBP futures markets noted open interest increased for the fourth straight session on Monday, this time by just above 1K contracts. On the other hand, volume shrunk for the third day in a row, now by around 43.5K contracts.GBP/USD keeps looking to 1.2480Cable remains well on the downside so far this week. Yesterday’s negative price action came in tandem with rising open interest, which should keep on the table a potential drop to December 2018 lows in the 1.2480 region. The important drop in volume, however, could also spark some consolidation around current levels.

Reuters reports the recent comments by the Chinese State Councillor and a senior diplomat Wang Yi, as he urges all sides (the US and Iran) to exercise

Reuters reports the recent comments by the Chinese State Councillor and a senior diplomat Wang Yi, as he urges all sides (the US and Iran) to exercise restraint and ease tension in the Gulf region. Wang noted that China hoped Iran would not “rashly” abandon the 2015 nuclear deal.

FX option expiries for June 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1150 562m 1.1200 1.6bn 1.1240 1.3b

FX option expiries for June 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1150 562m 1.1200 1.6bn  1.1240 1.3bn  1.1250 515m  1.1300 659m  1.1350 989m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2450 277m  - USD/JPY: USD amounts 108.00 530m 108.61 392m  108.65 450m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3405 556m 

Despite taking U-turn from 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA), 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of early May to June downpour limits the EUR/JPY pair’s latest drop.

23.6% of Fibonacci retracement limits immediate downside.4H 100MA caps nearby advances.Despite taking U-turn from 100-bar moving average (4H 100MA), 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its early May to June downpour limits the EUR/JPY pair’s immediate declines as it takes the rounds of 121.66 while heading into the European open on Tuesday. Should sellers refrain from respecting 121.60 support, an area comprising June 06 low around 121.25/30 and the current year low of 120.78 may gain their attention. Meanwhile, an uptick beyond 4H 100MA level of 122.07 can push buyers towards 4H 200MA level of 122.60. In a case where prices keep rallying past-122.60, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near 123.00 and last week's top close to 123.20 can gain come back on the chart.EUR/JPY 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected 

Open interest in EUR futures markets shrunk by nearly 1.3K contracts on Monday, clinching the second consecutive decline according to preliminary data

Open interest in EUR futures markets shrunk by nearly 1.3K contracts on Monday, clinching the second consecutive decline according to preliminary data from CME Group. Volume, in the same line, went down for yet another session, this time by around 215.1K contracts.EUR/USD upside seen as correctiveFollowing recent lows in the 1.1200 neighbourhood, EUR/USD managed to attract some attention and stage a moderate rebound. However, gains should be short-lived on the back of declining open interest and volume, prompting spot to re-shift its focus to the downside in the near term.

Danske Bank analysts point out that for the Japanese economy, demand has been slowing and a record fiscal budget will keep the economy afloat in 2019,

Danske Bank analysts point out that for the Japanese economy, demand has been slowing and a record fiscal budget will keep the economy afloat in 2019, along with hoarding effects in the run-up to the VAT hike in October.Key Quotes“From 2020 onwards, the economy will have to find support abroad to keep growing. We expect GDP growth of 1.0% in 2019 and 0.5% in 2020 and 2021.” “With a shrinking population, exports are key to growth, even if the Japanese economy is quite closed. A rebound in global growth therefore remains paramount to the outlook.” “The VAT hike poses a risk to domestic demand, although the impact should be much smaller than after previous tax hikes. Future trade negotiations between the US and Japan could also cause some turbulence.” “The inflation outlook still looks modest and we expect the Bank of Japan to remain on hold through 2021.”

According to analysts at TD Securities, while the RBA's forecasts in the June statement are the same as those in the May statement (GDP 2.75% over 201

According to analysts at TD Securities, while the RBA's forecasts in the June statement are the same as those in the May statement (GDP 2.75% over 2019/20, inflation 1.75% over 2019, unemployment around 5% in 19/20), today's minutes suggest the risks on inflation are asymmetric and skewed to the downside.Key Quotes“While the RBA indicates "Members recognised that Australia's flexible inflation targeting framework did not require inflation to be within the target range at all times" (i.e. not locking itself into cutting), it does appear as though a sub 1% cash rate is looking more likely after Luci Ellis' speech last week, indicating NAIRU is 4.5%, not 5.5% as previously assumed.” “Head of Financial Stability at the RBA, Jonathan Kearns delivered a speech to a property summit in Canberra. He highlighted that although mortgage arrears have climbed back to 2010 levels, arrears are well below the early 1990 recession levels and below other developed nations. Arrears 'could continue to edge higher for a bit longer', but were not seen as posing a risk to the financial system assuming strong lending standards and unemployment remains low.”  

Cautious optimism coupled with broad-based US dollar weakness emerged the main theme in Asia this Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its two

Cautious optimism coupled with broad-based US dollar weakness emerged the main theme in Asia this Tuesday, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its two-day monetary policy review meeting later today, with the outcome likely to be announced on Wednesday. Amongst the G10 currencies, the Yen was the top performer, with the USD/JPY pair down 0.25% to 108.25 levels amid falling Japanese stocks, Treasury yields and broad USD weakness. On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair wilted to fresh 5-month lows near 0.6830 region after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) June monetary policy meeting’s minutes suggested that further rate cuts are more likely in the months ahead. The NZD/USD bounce stalled just ahead of the 0.65 handle, as traders await the key fundamentals from New Zealand for fresh direction. Meanwhile, the Cable caught a fresh selling wave and refreshed 5-month lows at 1.2514 on the reports that the UK Finance Minster Hammond is set to resign. The Euro, on the other hand, extended the corrective bounce towards 1.1250 against the greenback. On the commodities space, Gold prices on Comex traded mildly bid near 1245 levels, having benefitted from geopolitical tensions, weaker US rates and pre-Fed caution trading. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks were sidelined amid a lack of fresh catalysts and ahead of the US weekly crude supply reports.Main Topics in AsiaMexico’s Obrador: Could win trade war with US but that would be a ‘Pyrrhic’ victory it does not seek US Official: US preparing to send additional troops to Middle East in response to threat from Iran – Reuters US Defense Secretary Shanahan: The US does not seek conflict with Iran China cuts treasury holdings to two-year low amid trade war – Bloomberg Gold technical analysis: Summer 2016 highs in the 1370s in sight WTI remains defensive around $51.80 despite geopolitical tensions RBA minutes: Further monetary policy easing likely ahead China home prices ticked +0.7% higher in May BOJ's Kuroda: Global economic uncertainty is high GBP/USD hits fresh 5-month lows as UK FinMin Hammond ‘prepared to resign’ Australian Treasurer Frydenberg: Will introduce the tax package in the first week of parliament AUD Bearish: Dalian iron ore falls for second straight session over demand concerns Asian stocks ex-Nikkei report modest gains ahead of Fed meeting Fitch lowers India's growth forecast to 6.6% for FY 2019-20, INR better bidKey Focus AheadWe have a fairly busy EUR calendar ahead, with plenty of event risks from the Euroland, including the macro data and the European Central Bank (ECB) speak at Sintra conference. Markets look forward to the speeches by the ECB President Mario Draghi and Vice-President Luis De Guindos, scheduled at 0800 GMT and 0830 GMT respectively, for fresh hints on the monetary policy and economic outlook. At 0900 GMT, a flurry of economic releases are slated for release, viz., the German ZEW Survey, Eurozone Trade Balance, final Consumer Price Index (CPI) and ZEW survey. From the UK docket, there is nothing of note and hence, the uncertainty around the UK political climate will continue to drive the GBP moves. Across the pond, we see the US Housing Starts and Building Permits data dropping in at 1230 GMT alongside the release of the Canadian Manufacturing Sales that are expected to a smaller increase for April. Later at 1400 GMT, the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is due to speak alongside his ECB counterpart Draghi and ECB policymaker Lane. Also, in focus remain New Zealand’s (NZ) fortnightly GDT Price Index, due on the cards around 1400 GMT. Towards NY close, the American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly crude stockpiles data will be closely followed (at 2030 GMT) for fresh direction on the US oil prices. EUR/USD flirts with 50-hour MA ahead of German ZEW survey, Draghi's speech EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German data releases. ECB's Draghi has little room to sound hawkish.  GBP/USD: Sellers dominate ahead of Carney’s speech, Conservative voting Bears continue to hold the reins of GBP/USD amid political pessimism as the pair trades near 1.2514, the fresh five-month low, before the second round of voting for the Tory leadership and Carney’s speech. Gold: Summer 2016 highs in the 1370s in sight For gold bulls, the Jan and April highs came in around 1365 which guards the summer 2016 highs in the 1370s ahead of the Sep 2013 highs in the 1435s. Dovish FOMC to focus on falling inflation expectations – Morgan Stanley Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their expectations on Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT.  

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is giving away part of its recent gains and recedes to the 97.40 region on Tuesday. US Dollar In

DXY moves lower following recent tops around 97.50.Yields of the US 10-year note drop to the 2.08% area.Building Permits, Housing Starts next of relevance.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is giving away part of its recent gains and recedes to the 97.40 region on Tuesday.US Dollar Index looks to dataThe index is losing ground for the first time since last Wednesday following disappointing results from the US calendar at the beginning of the week and unabated speculations of probable rate cuts by the Fed in the next months. It is worth recalling that the key Empire State Index dropped to the lowest level since October 2016 at -8.6, while the NAHB index also came in on the weak side yesterday. In the meantime, cautiousness among investors is expected to keep growing ahead of the critical FOMC meeting on Wednesday, where all the attention will be on the Committee’s views on the potential shift of the monetary stance. Later in the day, Housing Starts and Building Permits will be the only publications of note in the docket.What to look for around USDMarkets participants continue to price in the likelihood of rate cuts by the Fed in the next months and this is somehow limiting upside potential in the index. While an ‘insurance cut’ looks likely sooner than later according to market chatter, the upcoming FOMC meeting should shed more light on to the issue and is expected to give further details on the impact of trade tensions on the US economy. However, and in spite of some disappointing results in US fundamentals as of late, the labour market remains strong, wage growth keep pushing higher and the overall economy looks healthy - specially when we consider the weakness in overseas economies – all begging the question whether current speculations of rate cuts are not overdone.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.12% at 97.41 and a breakdown of 96.46 (low Jun.7) would open the door for 96.04 (50% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and then 95.82 (low Feb.28). On the flip side, the next hurdle emerges at 97.60 (high Jun.17) seconded by 97.87 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017-2018 drop) and finally 98.37 (2019 high May 27).

Pre-established risk-off moves gained additional support from downbeat comments by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and sluggish housing data.

Doubts over global growth amid trade wars/geopolitical challenges grab market attention ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC.Comments from global central bankers and second-tier data may direct intermediate moves.Pre-established risk-off moves gained additional support from downbeat comments by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and sluggish housing data from Australia/China during early Tuesday. As a result, Gold prices rise to $1341.90 ahead of the European session. Not only fewer chances of the US-China trade deal at the upcoming G20 but the increasing tussle between the US and Iran also carried the risk-aversion forward at the day’s start. The US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross recently turned down chances of any breakthrough from the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart at the sidelines of G20. Elsewhere, the US added 1,000 troops to its Middle East forces amid expectations of Iran taking steps to retaliate against recent allegation over Oman attacks. The global benchmark for risk sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yield holds the latest losses to 2.086% by the press time. Moving on, comments from the global policymakers at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum in Sintra will be closely analyzed for fresh impulse ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC. Adding to the watching could be housing market numbers from the US and political noises surrounding the UK, trade, and geopolitics.Technical AnalysisWhile year to date high surrounding $1358 holds the gate for the bullion’s rally towards early-2018 tops near $1366, its further upside might not refrain from calling 2016 high of $1375.27 back on the chart. Though, metal’s decline below March month high of $1327.80 can trigger fresh selling pressure targeting $1310 and $1300 round-figure.

WTI oil is trading steady near $51.90, having dropped 1.7% on Monday on global growth concerns and forecasts by the US energy department that shale oi

WTI oil is stuck in a descending triangle on the hourly chart. A triangle breakout would open the doors to $54.80 (June 10 high). WTI oil is trading steady near $51.90, having dropped 1.7% on Monday on global growth concerns and forecasts by the US energy department that shale oil output could reach a record in July. The outlook remains bearish with a series of bearish lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart and 5- and 10-day moving averages (MA) trending south.  However, a corrective rally to $54.80 (June 10 high) could be seen if the price breaks above $52.50 today, confirming a descending triangle breakout on the hourly chart. A daily close above $54.80 would confirm a double bottom breakout.  A triangle breakdown, however, would shift risk in favor of a retest of recent lows near $50.70.  Hourly chartTrend: Bullish above $54.80Pivot levels 

Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, points out that the New Zealand households remain downbeat about the economic backdrop as the latest Wes

Satish Ranchhod, senior economist at Westpac, points out that the New Zealand households remain downbeat about the economic backdrop as the latest Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey fell 0.3 points in June to a level of 103.5, leaving confidence well below average levels.Key Quotes“Households remain downbeat about the economic outlook, with consumer confidence nudging down again in the June quarter.” “Households continue to highlight concerns about their personal financial situation, and this is weighing on spending appetites.” “This provides a further indication that the New Zealand economy is slowing.”

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep the interest rates steady at a policy review this Thursday, but may begin easing cycle later this year, a Reuters p

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep the interest rates steady at a policy review this Thursday, but may begin easing cycle later this year, a Reuters poll showed.  19 of 22 analysts polled predicted Bank Indonesia (BI) will hold the 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 6.0%, where it has been since November. The remaining three forecasted a 25 basis point rate cut.  USD/IDR is currently trading at 14,330, having defended 14,220 over the last eight days. The pair, however, has produced lower highs over the last four weeks and the bearish setup would be invalidated only above Jan. 7's high of 14,382. Key points (Source: Reuters) All eight respondents who gave a view on the year-end benchmark expect at least one rate cut in 2019. Four predicted the rate would end the year 25 bps below its current level, three saw it 50 bps lower, and one saw the rate 75 bps lower.
 

According to David Plank, head of Australian economics, the minutes from the June RBA Board meeting send a very clear signal about future policy steps

According to David Plank, head of Australian economics, the minutes from the June RBA Board meeting send a very clear signal about future policy steps, with the concluding paragraph saying that:“Given the amount of spare capacity in the labour market and the economy more broadly, members agreed that it was more likely than not that a further easing in monetary policy would be appropriate in the period ahead.”Key Quotes“Such an explicit signal about the likelihood of another cut in the minutes of the meeting where rates were moved is unusual. The minutes from the meetings in February 2015 and May 2016, in each case being the meeting where the first of two cuts took place, did not provide any such clarity about the next move. So we clearly need to take note of this unusually strong signal.” “Since the June meeting we’ve had the employment report for May. While employment growth was exceptionally strong for the month, there was no improvement in unemployment or underemployment. The continuation of significant slack in the labour market seems likely to persist for some time. The signal from the Board minutes is that the RBA wants to get policy to a more stimulatory level quite quickly to.” “But there are long lags between policy moves and transmission to the economic data. We struggle with interpreting the minutes as indicating the RBA intends to ease at every meeting until it sees the labour market turn around.” “We look to the Governor’s speech on Thursday to clarify the near-term policy outlook. In particular, whether we need to bring forward our expectation of the next rate cut to July from our current expectation of August.”  

Simon Murray, analyst at Westpac, notes that the Westpac–Australian Chamber Actual Composite index declined to 61.5 in June from 61.8 in March. Key Qu

Simon Murray, analyst at Westpac, notes that the Westpac–Australian Chamber Actual Composite index declined to 61.5 in June from 61.8 in March.Key Quotes“The Composite remains at a positive level but suggests that the loss in momentum from mid-2018 has persisted into mid-2019.” “The reading for the Composite index is supported by rising output, albeit at a slower pace; new orders; backlog; and overtime. However, employment levels stagnated over the past three quarters. The Australian economy has slowed to an annual growth pace of 1.8%, the softest result since the time of the GFC - September 2009. Private demand is contracting but this is being offset by solid public spending.” “The Expected Composite recovered to 63.3 in June from 60.2 in March. Similarly, optimism surrounding the general business situation bounced with a net 28% of respondents expecting an improvement over the next six months compared to a net 12% in March. The brief dip in manufacturing firm sentiment in March may have been associated with uncertainty ahead of the Federal election. Now that the election is over, along with added impetus from the RBA rate cut on 4 June, optimism has recovered back to levels seen in December 2018, although that is still well down from 2017 peaks.” “The survey's Labour Market Composite, which broadly tracks economy-wide employment growth, is at 52.4. The index correctly led the uplift in employment in 2017 and identified the turning point to slower momentum in 2018. The current level suggests employment growth should hold a moderate pace.”

EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German da

EUR/USD is grappling with key average resistance at press time. Better-than-expected German Zew surveys could put a bid under the EUR. ECB's Draghi has little room to sound hawkish. EUR/USD is chipping away at the 50-hour moving average line ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi's speech and key German data releases.  The currency pair picked up a bid in the US trading hours on Monday and rose to the 50-hour MA, then located at 1.1247, on the back of weak US data. The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for June printed at 8.6 versus the expected expansion of 10.  The rise, however, was short-lived with the pair falling back to 1.1214 by NY close only to rise back to the 50-hour MA in Asia.  The key average could be breached if the German Zew surveys paint a positive picture of the Eurozone's largest economy. The data, however, is expected to show the economic sentiment index deteriorated to -5.8 in June from -2.1 in May. Meanwhile, the Euro-zone reading is forecasted to drop to -3.6 from -1.6. Apart from Zew surveys, the pair will also take cues from Draghi's speaking rounds at the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. With market-based measures of inflation expectations recently sliding to record lows, Draghi has little room to sound hawkish. Even so, the EUR/USD pair may find takers if German Zew surveys beat estimates and the US housing data, due at 12:30 GMT, misses expectations by a big margin, reinforcing dovish Fed expectations. The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged tomorrow and lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. Pivot levels 

In its latest Global Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the US-based Fitch ratings made a downward revision to India’s GDP growth forecast for the

In its latest Global Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the US-based Fitch ratings made a downward revision to India’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year (FY) 2019-20.Key Findings:“Amid cooling activity in the manufacturing and agriculture sector, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings slashed India's growth forecast to 6.6% for the current financial year from 6.8% projected earlier. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to cut interest rate by another 25 basis points later in 2019, which will push the policy repo rate down to 5.50%. Monetary and regulatory easing from the RBI, along with a recovery in portfolio inflows, should support a recovery in credit to the private sector and reverse the drag from the negative credit impulse. However, the agency retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the next fiscal (2020-21) at 7.1% and 7.0% for 2021-22.” Despite the growth forecast downgrade, the Indian Rupee manages to keep the recovery mode intact vs. the US dollar, with USD/INR back in the red near 69.80 region. The cross faded an uptick to 70.12 once again in early trades.

Having slipped beneath May month bottom during Monday, the AUD/USD pair now takes the round close to the year 2016 low near 0.6830 during early Tuesday.

Break of May month low added selling pressure.Oversold RSI, 2016 bottom may question bears targeting the YTD lows.Having slipped beneath May month bottom during Monday, the AUD/USD pair now takes the round close to the year 2016 low near 0.6830 ahead of the European open on Tuesday. Not only strong support surrounding 0.6830 but oversold conditions of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) could challenge the Aussie pair’s further downturn, which if ignored could open the doors for its slump to January month’s flash crash low around 0.6680. It should, however, be noted that 0.6700 round-figure might offer an intermediate halt during the plunge. On the contrary, pair’s U-turn beyond 0.6860 can trigger fresh profit-booking towards 0.6900 and 0.6930 numbers to the north. Additionally, sustained rise past-0.6930 enables the buyers to aim for 0.6970 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.6995/0.7000.AUD/USD daily chartTrend: Pullback expected 

Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence was down just a notch last week, falling 0.3%, notes the analysis team at ANZ. Key Quotes “The financia

Australia’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence was down just a notch last week, falling 0.3%, notes the analysis team at ANZ.Key Quotes“The financial conditions sub-indices were positive. Current financial conditions rose 3.9%, while future financial conditions gained 0.2%. The rise has bought both indices back above their long-term averages.” “Current and future economic conditions were down 2.3% and 1.9% respectively.” “Time to buy a major household item’ was also down, falling 1.2%. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was stable at 3.8%.”

Bears continue to hold the reins of GBP/USD amid political pessimism as the pair trades near 1.2530, the fresh five-month low, before key events on Tuesday.

Political pressure heats up ahead of Tory voting where 6 candidates will be voted for the UK PM’s post.Carney’s speech will also be examined considering recent economic pessimism.Bears continue to hold the reins of GBP/USD amid political pessimism as the pair trades near 1.2530, the fresh five-month low, before the second round of voting for the Tory leadership and Carney’s speech. Doubts over who will replace the present PM Theresa May and renewed pessimism surrounding the UK economy, due to likely hard Brexit, initially weakened the Cable. The downturn was recently carried forward after the British Finance Minister Philip Hammond conveyed his disagreement with the PM May’s spending plans by showing readiness to resign. Investors may now emphasize the outcome of conservative voting, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra and the US housing market numbers for fresh impulse. While each of the remaining 6 candidates requires a minimum of 33 votes to opt for tomorrow’s voting round, Boris Johnson seems to have less problem with that as he got 114 votes during the first round. However, the question will be on who can join him for the contest. Following the poll results, the BBC will hold a debate between the candidates and unlike the previous one Mr. Johnson has shown readiness to attend it. In the case of the ECB Forum, BOE’s Carney might highlight Brexit risk but is less likely to signal any deviation from present policy path. In the end, the US May month housing numbers are likely to portray an upbeat scenario as building permits could remain unchanged at 1.290 million while housing starts may rise to 1.240 million against 1.235 million prior on a monthly basis.Technical AnalysisWith the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) signaling oversold conditions, pair’s uptick beyond May low of 1.2560 can trigger fresh advances towards 1.2660 and 1.2710 numbers to the north. On the other hand, December 2018 low near 1.2480 and the year 2019 bottom around 1.2430 seems next on the bears’ radar during further downside.

For USD/INR, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. However, the upside is being capped by the 50-day moving average (MA) this week. The

USD/INR's upside is being capped by key average. Markets already priced in for two Fed rate cuts. A break above 70.00 looks likely.For USD/INR, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. However, the upside is being capped by the 50-day moving average (MA) this week.  The currency pair witnessed a falling wedge breakout on June 13, opening the doors to a retest of May's high of 70.78. The bullish move, however, seems to have stalled at the 100-day moving average resistance, currently at 69.93.  Notably, the pair created a doji candle at the average hurdle on Monday, taking some shine off the wedge breakout confirmed last week. That said, the pattern is still valid and would further gain credence if the spot invalidates the doji candle with a close above 70.00 today.  With 5- and 10- day MAs trending north and an impending bull cross between 5- and 50-day MAs, a break above 70.00 looks likely. It is worth noting that the markets are priced in for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. So, the pair is unlikely to see a big drop even if the Federal Reserve lays the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The central bank's rate decision is scheduled at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.  The escalating trade tensions between the US and India also favor further upside in USD/INR.  Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points 

Asian equity markets are reporting modest gains this Tuesday morning with investor caution ahead of the central bank meetings capping upside. The Shan

Asian stocks rise despite uncertainty ahead of Fed rate decision. Nikkei is flashing red with Yen ticking higher. Asian equity markets are reporting modest gains this Tuesday morning with investor caution ahead of the central bank meetings capping upside.  The Shanghai Composite index is currently adding 0.10% gains. Stocks in Australia and New Zealand are up 0.41% and 0.24%, respectively, and those in Hong Kong are adding 0.67%.  Japan’s Nikkei, however, is bucking the broader market trend with a 0.46% drop. The weakness in the Japanese stocks could be associated with the 20-pip rise in the Japanese Yen.  The US Federal Reserve will being a two-day meeting later today. The central bank is expected to level interest rates unchanged this time. However, with growing pressure from the White House to cut rates, the Fed may chose to lay groundwork for a move later this year.  Goldman Sachs, however, warned last week that markets have overpriced rate cuts and the Fed will keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.  With heightened uncertainty with respect to Fed’s monetary policy, the global equity markets may remain sidelined.  The Bank of Japan’s rate decision is also due later this week. The Japanese central bank is expected to see its stimulus program and again signal willingness to ramp up stimulus if needed.  Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes of the June 4 rate decision released earlier today showed growing consensus among policymakers that more easing would be appropriate. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% earlier this month and is seen cutting rates to 0.75% by the year end.       

With the British Finance Minister’s warning to resign crossing the wires, the EUR/GBP pair surges to the fresh high since mid-January on early Tuesday.

UK’s Finance Minister stays ready to resign after amid disagreement over the Prime Minster May's spending plans.Tension ahead of the second round of Tory voting also weighs on the Pound.With the British Finance Minister’s warning to resign crossing the wires, the EUR/GBP pair surges to the fresh high since mid-January before taking the rounds to 0.8970 during early Tuesday. The UK Finance Minister Phillip Hammond announced his disagreement over the Prime Minister Theresa May’s spending plan with a warning to resign. Uncertainty surrounding the UK PM’s race has been weighing on the British Pound (GBP) off-late. The lead runner, Boris Johnson, refrained from attending a debate with rest five candidates while some of the soft Brexit supporters gained more applause during the talks. On the other hand, the Euro (EUR) gained after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council member Benoit Coeure turned down fears of recession with upbeat comments during an interview with Financial Times. While the second round of Tory voting for the rest 6 candidates may grab market attention, speeches from the ECB President Mario Draghi and Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney will also become important to observe. The European and UK central bank leaders are scheduled to speak at the ECB’s forum on central banking in Sintra.Technical AnalysisMid-January high of 0.8990 holds the key to 0.9060/70 resistance-area, comprising multiple tops marked between late-December 2018 and early 2019, a break of which could further escalate the north-run towards current year’s high near 0.9120. However, overbought levels of 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicate brighter chances of the pair’s pullback to 0.8950 immediate support ahead of highlighting 0.8900 and 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.8870.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their expectations on Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT. Key Quotes: “Dovish

Analysts at Morgan Stanley offer their expectations on Wednesday’s FOMC monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1800 GMT. Key Quotes: “Dovish FOMC may focus on falling inflation expectations - In light of rapidly falling inflation expectations, the Fed is likely to keep the door to a summer rate cut open. US retail sales strength encourages investors to talk about a mid-cycle rate cut, which would be risk-positive.” 

GBP/JPY continues to lose altitude, having charted a bearish lower high near 138.30 last week. The pair is currently trading at 135.74, representing a

GBP/JPY is looking south with bearish setup on the daily chart. The pair is trading in the red for the fifth straight day. GBP/JPY continues to lose altitude, having charted a bearish lower high near 138.30 last week.  The pair is currently trading at 135.74, representing a 0.23% drop on the day. Notably, the currency pair is reporting losses for the fifth consecutive day, its longest losing streak since mid-May.  With the daily chart showing lower highs and lower lows, and descending 5- and 10-day moving averages, the outlook remains bearish. As a result, a further drop toward 135.00 cannot be ruled out.  That said, a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI) would be confirmed if the pair closes in the green today. This is due to the fact that the RSI is still holding well above lows near 19 registered on June 1, as opposed to GBP/JPY's drop to fresh 5.5-month lows today.  Daily chartTrend: BearishPivot points 

Iron-ore prices traded on the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell for the second straight day this Tuesday on rising demand concerns from the

Iron-ore prices traded on the Chinese Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell for the second straight day this Tuesday on rising demand concerns from the mills in the wake of heightened production restrictions in the top steelmaking city of Tangshan. The fall in the prices is also likely to exacerbate the pain in the Australian dollar, as iron-ore is Australia’s top export product. AUD/USD pair continues to meander near five-month lows of 0.6841, as overtly dovish RBA June meeting’s minutes keep the sentiment undermined. The RBA minutes showed that the board members see more rate cuts likely in the months ahead.AUD/USD Technical Levels to Watch 

In the view of the Deutsche Bank Analysts, the G10 trade of the week is long USD/CAD at 1.3415, with stops loss is 1.3225 and target at 1.3665. Key Qu

In the view of the Deutsche Bank Analysts, the G10 trade of the week is long USD/CAD at 1.3415, with stops loss is 1.3225 and target at 1.3665.  Key Quotes: “Bar is high for the Fed to validate market pricing of almost 70bps of easing this year.  Domestic data are not unequivocally poor. Financial conditions remain easy. And there is still a possibility of a breakthrough on the administration's trade negotiations with China at the upcoming G20 summit. We would expect a Fed disappointment to be risk-negative and dollar-bullish--an ideal mix for USD/CAD. In case we're wrong and the Fed meets dovish expectations, we believe that pricing for the Bank of Canada would (finally) need to converge.  At any rate, with not even one insurance cut fully priced for this year, the scope for a dovish BoC repricing makes CAD a better short into the Fed than AUD or NZD, which are already pricing Reserve Bank cuts and are closer to being oversold technically. What's more, net shorts in CAD are now lighter than in the Antipodeans, and the Canadian data surprise index has reached thin air at 120 (the highest in the world) ahead of important inflation and retail sales prints this week.”

Gold is currently trading $1,340 per Oz, representing 0.52 percent gains on the low of $1,333 seen on Monday. The bounce could be extended further tow

Gold's hourly chart shows a falling wedge breakout.Key indicators are also flashing bullish conditions. Gold is currently trading $1,340 per Oz, representing 0.52 percent gains on the low of $1,333 seen on Monday.  The bounce could be extended further toward $1,350, as the hourly chart is reporting a falling wedge breakout - a bullish reversal pattern which indicates the pullback from Friday's high of $1,358 has ended and the bulls are back in commanding position.  Also supporting the case for a rally to $1,350 is the relative strength index (RSI) on the hourly chart which is reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 print. Further, the 5- and 10-day moving averages are trending north, indicating bullish setup.  Hourly chartTrend: BullishPivot levels 

Australian Treasurer Frydenberg was out on the wires earlier this Tuesday, noting that he'll introduce the tax package in the first week of parliament

Australian Treasurer Frydenberg was out on the wires earlier this Tuesday, noting that he'll introduce the tax package in the first week of parliament. The new Parliament will assemble on Tuesday, July, 2 2019.

USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity this Tuesday morning in Asia with the US dollar losing ground against most majors except the AUD. The currency

USD/JPY has shed 20 pips in the last hour. The dollar is on the defensive, possibly due to dovish Fed expectations. AUD/JPY selling may have weighed over USD/JPY. USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity this Tuesday morning in Asia with the US dollar losing ground against most majors except the AUD. The currency pair is currently trading at 108.34, having shed 22 pips over the last sixty minutes or so.  The moderate drop could be associated with the broad-based US Dollar weakness, as represented by the Dollar Index, which is currently trading at 97.45 - down 15 pips from the overnight high of 97.60.  The greenback has come under pressure, possibly due to the widespread expectation that the Federal Reserve would lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The central bank is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.  Also, the selling in the AUD/JPY cross may have added to the bearish pressure around the USD/JPY pair. The JPY cross fell to fresh five months lows earlier today in response to dovish RBA minutes and a weaker-than-expected Aussie house price index figures.  Bank of Japan's Kuroda, while speaking in parliament earlier today, took note of the heightened uncertainty in the global economy. His dovish comments, however, have been ignored by markets. Moreover, it is generally accepted by now that the BOJ has exhausted its ammo and the central bank is unlikely to achieve its 2% inflation target any time soon.  Looking forward, the pair may remain under pressure, courtesy of dovish Fed expectations. Pivot levels     

Reports that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (AKA finance minister) prepared to resign

Reports that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (AKA finance minister) prepared to resign 

The downbeat tone of the RBA minutes and sluggish house price data from Australia dragged the AUD/NZD pair to 1.0530, below 200-HMA.

Break of 200-HMA signal further downside to near-term support-line.Oversold RSI question bears.The downbeat tone of the RBA minutes and sluggish house price data from Australia dragged the AUD/NZD pair to 1.0530, below 200-hour moving average (HMA), during early Tuesday. An upward sloping trend-line since May 10, at 1.0515 grabs sellers’ attention, for now, a break of which can push them towards current month low near 1.0495. Should there be increased selling pressure past-1.0495, March 27 top near 1.0450 could become bears’ favorite. Meanwhile, 21-HMA near 1.0555 seems the adjacent resistance for the pair traders to watch in case of a pullback. If prices manage to clear 1.0555 upside barrier, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of late-May to early June declines near 1.0580 and last week's high surrounding 1.0590 could come back on the chart. It is worth noting that the 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) is into the oversold territory indicating brighter chances of a U-turn.AUD/NZD hourly chartTrend: Bearish  

Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda, while speaking in Japanese parliament on Monday, said the uncertainty over global economic outlook is high and the ce

Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda, while speaking in Japanese parliament on Monday, said the uncertainty over global economic outlook is high and the central bank will take that into account while setting the monetary policy and ensure the momentum to achieve the 2% inflation target is maintained.  Kuroda added further that global developments will be discussed at the BOJ's rate review meeting, which is scheduled to kick off on Wednesday. 

The latest housing data published from the world’s second largest economy, China, showed that the home prices ticked slightly higher on the month, cal

The latest housing data published from the world’s second largest economy, China, showed that the home prices ticked slightly higher on the month, calming somewhat the China slowdown fears.Key Details:All China home prices rose +0.7% m/m in May vs. +0.6% booked in April. Meanwhile, home prices steadied at +10.7% y/y in May.

The AUD/USD fell to fresh 5.5-month lows after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's June rate decision showed consensus among policymakers t

The AUD is being offered across the board on dovish RBA minutes. The Aussie house price index falls more than expected. AUD/USD slips to lowest since January 3.The AUD/USD fell to fresh 5.5-month lows after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's June rate decision showed consensus among policymakers that further monetary easing would be appropriate.  The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6841, the lowest level since January 6. Notably, the Aussie dollar is down for the first straight session and has dropped on five out of the last six trading days.  Monetary policy board agreed that further policy easing would be appropriate and factors limiting inflation, particularly wage growth, are expected to last for some time, the minutes said.  As of writing, the market is pricing-in a rate-cut from the RBA by August and another rate cut for December is almost priced in. With the minutes sounding dovish, the markets may begin pricing the possibility of RBA cutting rates in July. As a result, the AUD/USD pair will likely remain on the defensive during the day ahead - more so, as the Aussie house price index fell 3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter compared to -2.6% expected.  It is worth noting that the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to a new record low of 1.25% earlier this month. Technical Levels   

AUD/JPY plunged as the RBA minutes signaling likely monetary easing while going forward and Australian house price index lagging behind market consensus.

RBA minutes keep highlighting fears of another rate cut.Sluggish Aussie house price data adds weakness into the Australian Dollar (AUD).Risk events remain on the spotlight.With the RBA minutes signaling likely monetary easing while going forward and Australian house price index lagging behind market consensus, the AUD/JPY pair slumped more than 20 pips to a fresh 5-month low near 74.20 during early Tuesday. In its minutes of the June 04 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) statement said that the board agreed "more likely than not" further policy easing would be appropriate. While considering the latest higher than expected Aussie unemployment rate statement like, “labor market would be "particularly important" on deciding further easing” further spread the pessimism. Additionally, Australia’s first quarter (Q1) 2019 house price index fall behind -1.6% market consensus and -2.4% prior to -3.0%. It should also be noted that China's May month house price index, released simultaneously, remained unchanged at 10.7%. During early-day geopolitical tussle between the US and Iran coupled with the US-China trade tension has also contributed positively to the demand of the Japanese Yen (JPY). As per the latest news, the US sent additional troops to safeguard against growing calls of a war with Iran whereas downbeat comments from the US Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross questions likeliness of any positive outcome of the G20 meeting between the US and Chinese leaders. However, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso was recently quoted saying that the US and China will meet during the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan on June 28-29. Global risk barometer the US 10-year treasury yields remain modestly flat near 2.085% by the press time. Having witnessed early-day news/events, investors are more likely to emphasize on developments surrounding the trade and geopolitical tension between the US-Iran and the US and China.Technical AnalysisWhile early-June lows near 75.00 acts as immediate strong resistance, an upside clearance of which can trigger the quote’s rally towards June 10 high around 76.00 whereas 76.40 and 50-day simple moving average near 77.05 could entertain buyers afterward. Alternatively, sustained downturn beneath 74.30 can drag the pair to 73.0 and then to the year 2016 low around 72.40.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of its June 4 2019 monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the key headlines found below. F

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the minutes of its June 4 2019 monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, with the key headlines found below.   Board agreed "more likely than not" further policy easing would be appropriate. Labor market would be "particularly important" on deciding further easing. Board noted lower interest rates not only policy option available on unemployment. Judged June rate cut would help reduce spare capacity in the labor market. Data suggested spare capacity to remain in labor market for some time. Factors limiting inflation, wage growth also expected to last for some time. Lower rates would push down value of A$, reduce household debt repayments. Board aware that lower rates hurt savers, but would stimulate economy overall. Judged lower rates would not spur risky rise in borrowing, or inflation. Persistence of subdued inflation threatened to un-anchor inflation expectations. Housing market remained weak, though auction clearance rates had pick up. Apra easing of bank lending rules would lead to modest increase in borrowing capacity. Escalation in Sino-US trade dispute intensified downside risks to global economy.

Australia House Price Index (YoY) down to -7.4% in 1Q from previous -5.1%

China House Price Index remains unchanged at 10.7% in May

Australia House Price Index (QoQ) came in at -3% below forecasts (-1.6%) in 1Q

The NZD/YSD has tried to correct from a strong downtrend and but bulls struggle through 0.65 the figure. The 0.6480 is a key support ahead of the Oct 2018 lows in the 0.6420s.MACD leans bearish.Further below, a 127% extension comes in at the 0.6270s, in line with Autumn 2015 levels. Both long-term and short-term stochastics are oversold and some consolidation could be expected. On a break of 0.6550, a 50% mean reversion to 0.6580 could be on the cards. 

The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8942 vs Monday's fix of 6.8940.

The People's Bank of China has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8942 vs Monday's fix of 6.8940. 

Even if an ascending trend-line since last-Wednesday portrays the USD/CAD pair’s strength, it is yet to clear the 1.3425/30 resistance confluence.

Recent lows/highs join 4H 200MA to highlight 1.3425/30 as important resistance.Immediate ascending trend-line limits the downside.Even if an ascending trend-line since last-Wednesday portrays the USD/CAD pair’s strength, it is yet to clear the 1.3425/30 resistance confluence as it seesaws near 1.3410 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Not only late-May lows and early-June tops but 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) also increases the importance of 1.3425/30 resistance, a break of which can trigger the pair’s rally towards May 30 low surrounding 1.3485 and then to 1.3500. During the quote’s additional rise past-1.3500, 1.3530 and previous month tops near 1.3565 could become bulls’ favorites. On the downside, 1.3400 and short-term upward sloping trend-line at 1.3375 can entertain sellers during the pair’s pullback. It should, however, be noted that the pair’s decline below 1.3375 can shift market focus to 1.3345 and 1.3280 supports.USD/CAD 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Despite latest negative news concerning the US-Iran geopolitical tussle, WTI remains defensive under 4-week old descending trend-line on early Tuesday.

Global growth worries take over geopolitical tension.Descending trend-line, 200-week MA limit immediate upside.Despite latest negative news concerning the US-Iran geopolitical tussle, WTI remains defensive under 4-week old descending trend-line while trading near $51.80 at the initial Asian session on Tuesday. The US recently sent additional 1,000 troops to the Middle East in order to counter threats from Iran after recently alleging the OPEC member’s role in the Oman attacks. Though, the black gold showed little reaction to the news. The reason could be likely chances of increased global economic damages due to the on-going trade tussle between the US and China. While Bloomberg’s news report suggesting a decline in China’s holding of the US Treasuries raised fears for further escalation in the trade war, the American Chamber of Commerce said that the US and China need to agree over the trade deal in G20 and end the public blame game. Other than political plays, today’s API weekly crude oil stock report will also gain traders’ attention. The private industry survey is scheduled to release the inventory report for the week ended on June 14 with the prior release being +4.85 million.Technical AnalysisWhile a downward sloping trend-line since late-May limits the energy benchmark’s immediate upside near $52.20, 200-week EMA near $52.65 seems additional upside barrier to watch, a break of which can trigger the quote’s rise towards $54.50. Meanwhile, longer-term support-line near $51.00, followed by $50.50 - $50.00 horizontal area, could keep limiting adjacent declines ahead of shifting bears’ towards 26 November low near $49.44.

USD/JPY has started out in Tokyo within a tight range between 108.50 and 108.58, currently at 108.51. Overnight, the pair was also trading in a tight

USD/JPY is trading in a tight range despite lower US yields and dovish FOMC expectations. Looking ahead, the FOMC is coming up, as well as the BoJ.USD/JPY has started out in Tokyo within a tight range between 108.50 and 108.58, currently at 108.51. Overnight, the pair was also trading in a tight range, despite a drop in US yields. US 10yr treasury yields fell from 2.11% to 2.08%, partly in response to the US data, while 2yr yields mostly ranged sideways between 1.85% and 1.88%, awaiting the Fed meeting on Wednesday.  The NY Fed's Empire State index of manufacturing sentiment plunged in June, falling a record 26.4pts in the month to -8.6, a 2 ½ year low. The abrupt fall was led by new orders which fell -21.7pts to -12, though shipments, employment and CAPEX plans all notably eased too. "The survey was conducted in early June when concerns about tariffs on imports from Mexico were at their height. Sentiment among US homebuilders slipped in June too, the NAHB index falling unexpectedly to 64 from 66 despite a big decline in mortgage rates this year," analysts at Westpac explained. FOMC coming up Looking ahead, the FOMC is coming up, as well as the BoJ. The main focus will stay with the Fed and while markets are pricing little chance of a cut this week, there is a 90% chance of a Fed fund rate cut by the July meeting, and this meeting around is expected to be uber-dovish. The dots will make up the market's mind as to how many cuts are likely to follow later in the year. Currently, markets are pricing in a total of three cuts priced by December. BoJ in focus On Thursday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) wraps up a two-day policy meeting. "It is one of the small meetings, with no new forecasts on GDP and inflation. We expect the BoJ to keep its 'QQE with yield curve control' policy unchanged," analysts at Danske Bank explained. USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that from a technical point of view, the pair continues in consolidative mode, hovering around the 38.2% retracement of the 109.92/107.81 slide, unable to settle above the level: "In the 4 hours chart, technical readings offer a neutral stance, with the price trapped between moving averages, holding above a flat 20 SMA but below a bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart hold right above their mid-lines, lacking directional strength."

Successful trading beyond 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) helps the EUR/USD pair to aim for short-term descending resistance-line.

Buyers target immediate descending trend-line backed by 4H 200MA.Failure to cross the resistance may recall early-month lows on the chart.Successful trading beyond 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) helps the EUR/USD pair to aim for short-term descending resistance-line as it trades near 1.1230 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. If prices manage to remain strong above trend-line resistance of 1.1242, 1.1270 and 1.1300 are likely following numbers to appear on the chart. Given the bulls’ extended rule over 1.1300, current month high near 1.1350 can be targeted if holding long positions. Meanwhile, the downside break of 4H 200MA level of 1.1213 can fetch the quote to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1200 with 1.1160 being likely follow-on support to grab market attention. Additionally, pair’s decline below 1.1160 might not refrain from visiting late-May low near 1.1100 round-figure.EUR/USD 4-Hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Forex today was driven in the main by a fall in US yields ahead of the FOMC meeting this week while US data gave the dollar a sucker-punch which it to

The US 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 2.11% to 2.08%.AUD/USD continued in its southerly trajectory, from 0.6875 to 0.6849 ahead of today's RBA Minutes.Forex today was driven in the main by a fall in US yields ahead of the FOMC meeting this week while US data gave the dollar a sucker-punch which it took on the chin, holding steady amidst heightened Brexit and various other geopolitical uncertainties elsewhere.  The US 10-year Treasury yields dropped from 2.11% to 2.08% following dismal U.S. data whereby the New York Fed's Empire State index of manufacturing sentiment dropped to a record 26.4pts in the month to -8.6, a 2 ½ year low.  "The abrupt fall was led by new orders which fell -21.7pts to -12, though shipments, employment and CAPEX plans all notably eased too. The survey was conducted in early June when concerns about tariffs on imports from Mexico were at their height. Sentiment among US homebuilders slipped in June too, the NAHB index falling unexpectedly to 64 from 66 despite a big decline in mortgage rates this year," analysts at Westpac explained. 
Currency action EUR/USD traded between 1.1210 to 1.1247 and back while GBP/USD dropped from 1.2600 to 1.2535 on hard Brexit presumptions should Boris take over Number 10 Downing Street. USD/JPY stuck to a tight range between 108.50 and 108.70 and AUD/USD continued in its southerly trajectory, from 0.6875 to 0.6849. The bird was perched for the best part of the day around 0.6500. AUD/NZD dropped from 1.0580 to 1.0540/50. Key-notes from Wall Street:Wall Street benchmarks end higher ahead of FOMC meetingKey events ahead: The minutes from the June RBA Board meeting are due at 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK - The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

The US Defense Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan provided additional details of sending 1,000 troops to the Middle East via his twitter handle.

While news reports concerning the US sending 1,000 extra troops to the Middle East amid growing Iranian threats were already on wires, the US Defense Secretary Patrick M. Shanahan provided additional details via his twitter handle. Keynotes: Have authorized approx 1,000 add’l troops for defensive purposes to address air, naval, & ground-based threats in the Middle East. The recent Iranian attacks validate the reliable, credible intelligence we have received on hostile behavior by Iranian forces & their proxy groups that threaten the United States personnel & interests across the region. The United States does not seek conflict with Iran. The action today is being taken to ensure the safety & welfare of our military personnel working throughout the region & to protect our national interests. We will continue to monitor the situation diligently & make adjustments to force levels as necessary given intelligence reporting & credible threats

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its June 04 monetary policy meeting at 1:30 GMT on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is up for releasing a minute statement of its June 04 monetary policy meeting at 11:30 am Syd/9:30 am Sing/HK and 01:30 GMT on Tuesday. The central bank met market-wide expectations of announcing a quarter percentage cut to its benchmark cash rate during the meeting. As a result, investors will seek more details of the catalysts that led to such a decision in order to predict any such upcoming moves and predict near-term trade direction of the AUD/USD pair. Ahead of the minutes, Westpac expects fewer clues of future rate cuts from today’s minute statement as it says: The RBA of course cut the cash rate 25bp to 1.25%, its first such move since 2016. The cut was 100% priced in, having been effectively confirmed by Governor Lowe’s speech on 21 May. Later on the day of the meeting, Lowe said it was “not unreasonable” to expect another rate cut, given that the technical assumption of 2 rate cuts in the May forecasts. But if we see a heavy hint of when the next cut will come, it seems more likely to be delivered in Thursday’s speech by Lowe rather than in the minutes.How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?While latest prints of higher than expected unemployment rate triggered pessimism surrounding the Australian economy, hints giving more importance to the labor market data in the minute statement could drag the AUD/USD pair further towards the south. Additionally, concerns for the US-China trade tussle could also weigh on the Aussie. Technically, 2016 lows around 0.6830 and January month’s flash crash bottom close to 0.6730 are on the seller’s radar unless the pair manages to clear 0.6900 immediate resistances that hold the gate for 0.6930, 0.6960 and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near 0.7010 during further upside.Key NotesAUD/USD awaits RBA minutes, consolidates downtrend AUD/USD technical analysis: Aussie bears challenge May lows and hit levels not seen since January AUD/USD Analysis: getting ready for a long-term slumpAbout the RBA minutesThe minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.

Sustained break of 21-day SMA currently propels the USD/IDR pair towards 200-day SMA as it takes the rounds to 14,416 during early Tuesday.

A successful break of 21-day SMA shifts market focus back to 200-day SMA.RSI also favors the upside.Sustained break of 21-day SMA currently propels the USD/IDR pair towards 200-day SMA as it takes the rounds to 14,416 during early Tuesday. The pair recently crosses 21-day simple moving average (SMA), which in-turn enable it to question the next important resistance i.e. 200-day SMA near 14,440. However, the latest high near 14,420 might offer an intermediate halt to the price rally. In a case where the quote manages to clear 14,440 mark, May month high near 14,660 and a horizontal-line near 14, 720/25 could flash on buyers’ radar. It should also be noted that 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is also not overbought yet and signal brighter chances of the pair’s rise over the important resistance. Alternatively, the pair’s decline below 21-day SMA level of 14,327 highlights 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2018 to February 2019 downturn near 14,230. During additional downside past-14,230, 14,140, 14,050 and 14,000 may entertain sellers ahead of pleasing them with April low surrounding 13,970.USD/IDR daily chartTrend: Bullish  

With the growing challenges to the UK’s economy joining political uncertainty surrounding the race to be the British Prime Minister, GBP/USD remains weak.

Doubts of the UK’s economic strength, political future gain attention.The second round of Tory voting, speech from BoE’s Carney in the spotlight.With the growing challenges to the UK’s economy joining political uncertainty surrounding the race to be the British Prime Minister, the GBP/USD pair slipped to the fresh five-month low on Monday and is currently stabilizes near 1.2540 during early Tuesday. Not only pessimistic survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce but sluggish housing data from the UK also highlights fears that the economy is in a fragile state and not be able to bear the shock of hard Brexit. At the political front, the lead candidate for the UK PM Boris Johnson avoided a television debate where soft Brexit supporters ruled the discussion. The same stirs up the uncertainty ahead of today’s second round of Tory voting. Looking forward, investors will give higher importance to the Bank of England’s (BOE) Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the ECB forum in Sintra together with results of Tory leadership contest where six out of previous 10 candidates will be voted to lead the nation. While BOE’s Carney is less likely to mention any negative statements concerning his recent upbeat appearance, chances of citing Brexit uncertainty as a greater challenge can’t be ruled out. On the other hand, any surprise results from the Tory voting could trigger the Cable’s wild moves.Technical AnalysisHaving breached May month low, December 2018 bottom surrounding 1.2480 and then the year 2019 low near 1.2430 are likely next on the bears’ radar whereas an upside break of 1.2560 becomes necessary for the pair to aim for recovery targeting 1.2660 and 1.2710 numbers to the north
For gold bulls, the Jan and April highs came in around 1365 which guards the summer 2016 highs in the 1370s ahead of the Sep 2013 highs in the 1435s. To the downside, 1346 was broken and now 1320 is guarding 1311. On a follow through, 1303/06 guards 1297. 1297 level meets the 50% Fibo retracement of the late April and early May double-bottom swing lows to recent spike high. The 55-week ma sits at around 1260s and the 200-week ma comes in at 1250s.

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6853, within a tight and early Asia range of between 0.6849/55 ahead of the RBA minutes today. Meanwhile, price acti

AUD/USD consolidating on a 78.6% retracement ahead of the RBA minutes.Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in view and not much action expected until then.AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6853, within a tight and early Asia range of between 0.6849/55 ahead of the RBA minutes today. Meanwhile, price action was rather dull overnight as well as we await direction from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which meeting starts today and concludes on Asian Thursday.  "While no change to interest rates is expected, we expect an acknowledgement of the deterioration in the international environment and downside risks for growth," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  Meanwhile, the RBA Minutes are going to be a key event for the Asian session. "The Governor’s speech on the eve of his first policy easing, earlier this month, has diminished the importance of the RBA’s minutes (due today)," the analysts at ANZ Bank explained, adding, "Usually, we would look to them for a more detailed assessment of the decision that was made, but with the Governor having already laid out the boards assessment, the minutes will likely provide little more than some additional information on the RBA’s view on recent trend in the labour market."AUD/USD levelsAUD/USD reached a 78.6% retracement level at 0.6857 and now consolidates. Analysts at Commerzbank explained that there are two 13 counts on the 240 minute chart and they will now exit remaining short positions and reattempt longs:  "Initial upside target is the 55-day ma at 0.7008, 0.7022 the June peak and the April peak at 0.7069. Further up resistance can be spotted at the 0.7207 February high. A rise above the 0.7207 late February high would target the December 2018 high at 0.7394."

With the US-China trade war and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran grabbing the spotlight, AUD/JPY remains on a back foot to 74.40.

Geopolitics, trade developments gain major market attention.Australia/China housing price data and RBA minutes are in the spotlight.With the US-China trade war and geopolitical tension between the US and Iran grabbing the spotlight, AUD/JPY remains on a back foot to 74.40 ahead of housing market data from Australia and China up for release during early Tuesday. Latest news from Bloomberg signals that China’s holdings of the US Treasuries slipped to $1.113 trillion in April versus March month figures of $1.121 trillion. The trade war between the two countries has been spotted in the report as a reason for the decline in China’s treasury holdings. Elsewhere, Reuters came out with a news report citing unnamed US official saying that the nation is preparing for sending additional troops to the Middle Ease amid threats from Iran. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is considered risk safe and often sought in terms of market uncertainties. Looking forward, house price Index data from China and Australia, coupled with minutes of the latest RBA meeting, could direct near-term pair moves. While May month housing price figure from China grew 10.7%, its counterpart from Australia shrank -2.4% in Q4 2018 and is likely to improve to -1.6% during the first quarter of the current year. Further, investors would seek additional clues of why the latest rate cut was announced the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the minute statement.Technical AnalysisLatest low near 74.30 holds the gate for the quote’s extended south-run to 73.00 and then the year 2016 low around 72.40 whereas an upside break of 74.48 can recall 74.80 and 75.00 on the chart

Bloomberg came out with the news report mentioning that China cuts its US treasury holdings to the lowest in almost two years due to the trade war.

Bloomberg came out with the news report mentioning that China cuts its US treasury holdings to the lowest in almost two years mainly because of the prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies. The news report quotes the US Treasury Department data released on Monday in Washington while saying that China’s holdings of notes, bills and bonds declined by $7.5 billion in April to $1.11 trillion. It was further mentioned that previous figures were collected ahead of a full-fledged trade tussle when the talks collapsed and the US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and announced more increases to come. Expectations of reasons other than trade war were also marked while saying that China would struggle to find another spot to park its cash.

Early on Tuesday, Reuters cited news from the unnamed US official sources saying that the US is preparing to send additional troops to the Middle East.

Early on Tuesday, Reuters cited news from the unnamed US official sources saying that the US is preparing to send additional troops to the Middle East in response to the threat from Iran. Iran has been warning the US off-late and said to further move away from the nuclear deal on Monday. Geopolitical disturbances between both the nations i.e. Iran and the US are positive to Crude prices. WTI trades little negative to $51.90 by the press time of early Asian session on Tuesday.

Mexican President Lopez Obrador was recently on wires, via Reuters, showing the country’s ability to counter and win the US-led trade war it adhered to.

Mexican President Lopez Obrador was recently on wires, via Reuters, showing the country’s ability to counter and win the US-led trade war it adhered to off-late. Mr. Obrador was quoted saying that Mexico could win trade war with the US but that would be a ‘Pyrrhic’ victory it does not seek. The country recently signed a deal with the US to stop illegal migration into the later one during the 90-day period in order to avoid harsh tariffs by the Trump administration.

Having attempted a little successful comeback, the NZD/USD pair clings to 0.6500 despite three-quarter low New Zealand consumer during early Tuesday.

Fails to benefit from weak US data.Shows little reaction to 3-quarter low New Zealand consumer survey.Fewer data on hand but details/events at the largest customers can entertain traders.Having attempted a little successful comeback, the NZD/USD pair clings to 0.6500 despite three-quarter low New Zealand consumer survey results at the start of Tuesday’s Asian session. The Kiwi tried taking advantage of sluggish manufacturing and housing data from the US on Monday. However, looming concerns over the US-China trade war and comparative fundamental strength of the US Dollar (USD) maintained downside pressure on the pair. The second quarter (Q2) 2019 data from New Zealand’s Westpac consumer survey dropped to 103.5 versus 103.8 prior, lowest since September 2018. However, traders showed little reaction to the sentiment data. While the local economic calendar doesn’t have anything to direct immediate moves, Australia’s first quarter house price index, RBA meeting minutes and China’s May month house price index could entertain short-term traders. Following that, US housing market stats will also garnet investor attention. China’s house price index rose 10.7% during April while its counterpart from Australia’s contracted -2.4% during last quarter of 2018 and is likely to improve to -1.6% on a QoQ basis this time. The US building permits for May could remain unchanged at downwardly revised 1.290 million whereas housing starts might increase to 1.240 million against 1.235 million earlier. Minutes of the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting are less likely to offer any more signals for future rate cuts but will be observed to gauge policymakers’ tone while announcing the latest rate alteration.Technical AnalysisRepeated failures to break the yearly low of 0.6480 continues to highlight chances of a pullback to 0.6530 a break of which can escalate the recovery towards May 27 high of 0.6560. Though, a downside break of 0.6480 might not refrain from dragging the quote to October 2018 lows near 0.6460 prior to shifting market focus to the year 2018 bottom of 0.6430.

USD/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The 50 SMA crossed below the 100 SMA which is a bearish sign.

USD/JPY is trapped in a tight range between 108.20 and 108.80. A drop below 108.45 support can lead to 108.20 according to the Trend Confluence Indicator.USD/JPY daily chart 
USD/JPY is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The 50 SMA crossed below the 100 SMA which is a bearish sign.
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
USD/JPY is consolidating in the 108.20-108.80 range trapped between the 50 and 100 SMAs.
USD/JPY 30-minute chart
According to the Trend Confluence Indicator, there is strong support at 108.45 which is the daily Fibonacci 38.2%, the 200 SMA on the 1-hour and the 50 SMA on the 4-hour. If this level is broken to the downside the market could fall to the next level of confluence which is seen near the 108.20 level, the weekly pivot point support 1. 
On the flip side, bulls will try to overcome 108.70 to reach 108.84 (near previous week high and the weekly pivot point resistance 1). The next resistance is seen at 109.05 (Monthly Fibonacci of 23.6%).
Trend Confluence Indicator 
Additional key levels  

New Zealand Westpac Consumer Survey declined to 103.5 in 2Q from previous 103.8

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