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Daily Market Analysis and Forex News

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Gold heading back towards $2000?

Gold and grain
  • Gold boosted by fundamental forces
  • Technical indicators signal further upside
  • Time for bulls to step into a higher gear?
  • All eyes on key psychological $2000 level

Gold glittered on Wednesday after jumping over 1% in the previous session.

The precious metal drew strength from a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields following the softer-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday.

This data has knocked the probability of another Fed hike to almost zero with traders pricing in a 50-basis point rate cut by July 2024, according to Fed Funds futures. 

Given gold’s zero-yielding nature, further gains could be on the cards as expectations rise over the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. It will be wise to keep a close eye on the incoming US retail sales data among other key reports and speeches by Federal Reserve officials this week which could influence expectations around what the Fed does beyond 2023 - ultimately impacting gold prices.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold could push higher if a daily close above $1968 is achieved.

After rebounding from the 200-day SMA earlier this week, bulls have been armed with the technical and fundamental ammunition to attack the psychological $2000 level once again. 

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to hit overbought conditions – signaling room for further upside.

On the weekly charts, the trend flipped back in favor of bulls in October after prices breached the bearish channel. However, a solid close above the $2000 resistance is needed for bulls to step into a higher gear. 

Taking a brief look at the monthly timeframe, prices remain in a very wide range with key resistance at $2000 and support at $1800. It is worth noting that gold has never secured a monthly close above the psychological $2000 level. Given the solid monthly candle in October and strong fundamental drivers supporting bulls, a significant move could be on the horizon. 

Redirecting our attention back to the daily timeframe, bulls look to be in a position of power with all eyes on $2000. 

  • A strong daily close above $1968 may open the doors back towards $2000, $2010, and $2018, respectively. 

  • Should prices remain capped below $1968, this could trigger a decline back towards $1945 and $1934 – where the 200-day SMA resides. 


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