Crude oil has been doing the rounds on media as it sits at a key turning point according to various analysts, and it's easy to see why given that market trending seems to have slowed down. Many in the market now believe that we are going to see the bulls make some sort of resurgence and they point at the current drawdown's from private and public data as the catalyst for further surges in the future. Tonight's drawdown of -3.5M barrels was to be expected by most, however the surge in gasoline is still a little worrying at this stage and it will be interesting to see how markets treat that tomorrow with the Department of Energy (DOE) figures. I also believe that in the long run oil prices are likely to rebound given OPEC's recent efforts, but it will come about when the US shale industry actually slows down, and does not keep boosting production further. Many believed that shale would die off with low prices; nevertheless they become more efficient, meaner and aggressive than ever before and have survived thus far as a result.
Crude on the charts has seriously slowed down and the DOE data due out tomorrow will give it some serious movement as usual. Today's market is responding to a weak US dollar, and if we do see a strong US dollar well you can expect that to impact oil as well with further tests on support at 46.50 and 45.47. When the bulls do come back into the market and they will, I expect to see large tests on resistance at 48.82 and of course the level to beat which is 50.21, but encompasses that psychological 50 dollars a barrel zone. With a large push on here markets could quickly rally behind the bulls in the short term, especially if the US continues to post drawdown's with its crude oil inventory.
The Canadian dollar has been a strong against the USD in Q2 and is looking to further extend that going into Q3 this year. This has been underpinned by USD weakness, but also by a resurgence in the Canadian economy as of late with retail sales lifting to 0.7% m/m (0.1% exp) - a positive sign for an economy so underpinned by its resources and the fluctuations in the markets. While the Trump effect wearing off will have a positive effect and oil prices starting to look a little more bullish, it could be a good chance for the CAD to claw back further ground against the USD.
Chart wise the USDCAD has been in a bearish trend for some time, and the trend is always your friend. After a brief pull-back led in part by USD shorts being oversold, the CAD looks poised to make some strong moves again and is currently held up at support at 1.2553, with the potential to extend further to 1.2429. Given the recent movements we could see a bounce higher to resistance, but the potential for a double top certainly exists at 1.2757 in the current market environment.
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