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Bảng Tin tức Forex

Thứ tư, Tháng mười một 14, 2018

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Wednesday there was no change to the view that the country’s economy was recovering moderately, ev

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Wednesday there was no change to the view that the country’s economy was recovering moderately, even though the data released earlier today showed the economy contracted 1.2 percent in the third quarter.Key comments (Source: Reuters) Japan’s economy is expected to recover driven mainly by domestic demand. We need to be vigilant to the impact of overseas uncertainties, financial market volatility and how trade problems affect the global economy.

Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying that the US is likely to hold off on auto tariffs for now after the Trump meeting. No further details have be

Reuters cited unnamed sources as saying that the US is likely to hold off on auto tariffs for now after the Trump meeting. No further details have been mentioned on the same.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9402 vs the previous day's fix of 6.9629. 

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9402 vs the previous day's fix of 6.9629. 

The Aussie dollar is currently trading at 0.7224, having hit a high of 0.7238 earlier today. Notably, the pair is having a tough time scaling the 100-

The AUD/USD is struggling to move past the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA).An uptick in the Aussie wage price index seems to have gone unnoticed.The currency pair has created a bearish continuation pattern on the hourly chart.The Aussie dollar is currently trading at 0.7224, having hit a high of 0.7238 earlier today. Notably, the pair is having a tough time scaling the 100-hour SMA lined up at 0.7232. The ABS data released 30 minutes before press time showed the wage-price inflation ticked higher to 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter from the previous quarter's print of 0.5 percent. Meanwhile, the annualized figure rose to 2.3 percent, in line with the expectations. The uptick in the wage price inflation, however, has gone unnoticed. That makes the pair more vulnerable to risk aversion in the Asian stocks. As of writing, stocks in Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea are flashing red, while Japan's Nikkei is reporting moderate gains.  On the hourly chart, the pair seems to have carved out a bear flag -  a bearish continuation pattern. A break below the lower edge of the flag, currently at 0.7205, could yield a drop to 0.7164 (Monday's low).AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7227
    Daily change: 16 pips
    Daily change: 0.222%
    Daily Open: 0.7211
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7148
    Daily SMA50: 0.7161
    Daily SMA100: 0.7259
    Daily SMA200: 0.7462
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7226
    Daily Low: 0.7164
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7202
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7187
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7174
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7138
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7112
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7237
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7263
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7299  

Australia Wage Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.3%) in 3Q

Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 3Q

Australia wage price index rose 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter as expected, extending the moderate rate of wage growth record

Australia wage price index rose 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter as expected, extending the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last four years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a few minutes before press time. The annualized number rose to 2.3 percent as expected from the previous quarter's reading of 2.1 percent.Quarterly Change (Jun Qtr 2018 To Sep Qtr 2018) (Source: ABS)The trend index rose 0.5% and seasonally adjusted index rose 0.6% for Australia in the September quarter. This continued the moderate rate of wage growth recorded by the series over the last four years. The Private and Public sector rose 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, seasonally adjusted. The highest index rise at an industry level (in original terms) was recorded in Accommodation and food services (1.9%) and the lowest in Finance and insurance services (0.4%).Annual Change (Sep Qtr 2017 To Sep Qtr 2018)The trend and seasonally adjusted indexes for Australia rose 2.2% and 2.3% respectively through the year to the September quarter 2018. In original terms, rises through the year to September quarter 2018 at the industry level ranged from 1.8% for Mining and Retail trade to 2.8% for Health care and social assistance.

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today we saw Japanese Q3 GDP, which underlined how wobbly the global backdrop suddenly looks.  Key Quotes: "It s

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today we saw Japanese Q3 GDP, which underlined how wobbly the global backdrop suddenly looks. Key Quotes:"It shrank 1.2% q-o-q on an annualised basis, so the second quarter of negative growth this year, if not back to back. Next up we have a Chinese data blast of retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment – if that also shows weakness then we can expect a further ramping up of stimulus and a further set of weights pressing on CNY. Then we have German Q3 GDP, which is seen -0.1% q-o-q, adding to the gloom, and UK CPI, then Eurozone Q3 GDP, expected to be as damp as the weather. We also get US CPI, and hear from the Fed’s Powell overnight – let’s hope that there isn’t a huge US outperformance or else USD is going to look as relatively muscly as the US army is compared to Europe’s."

The bid tone around the USD/JPY strengthened a few minutes before press time, after the Japanese data showed the economy shrank at an annualized rate

Japanese economy contracted in the third quarter, reinforcing Bank of Japan’s dovish policy stance.USD/JPY has bounced off the ascending 5-day EMA, keeping bulls in the game. A break above 114.23 (Monday’s doji candle high) is needed to confirm the continuation of the rally. The bid tone around the USD/JPY strengthened a few minutes before press time, after the Japanese data showed the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.2 percent in third quarter.  The drop in the GDP is likely associated with the natural disasters and a slowdown in export growth due to anemic global demand and reinforces Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) view that policy needs to stay accommodative for some time.  As a result, JPY is being offered at press time. The USD/JPY has bounced off the ascending 5-day EMA of 113.78 and is currently trading at 113.91.  The rebound from the bullish short-term EMA is encouraging, however, a only a break above 114.23 would signal a continuation of the rally from the October low of 111.38. It is worth noting that the pair has created back-to-back doji candles, signaling bullish exhaustion. Hence, a close below yesterday’s low of 113.58 could prove costly. USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 113.95
    Daily change: 18 pips
    Daily change: 0.158%
    Daily Open: 113.77
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 112.96
    Daily SMA50: 112.68
    Daily SMA100: 111.95
    Daily SMA200: 110.08
Levels:
    Daily High: 114.16
    Daily Low: 113.58
    Weekly High: 114.1
    Weekly Low: 112.94
    Monthly High: 114.56
    Monthly Low: 111.38
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 113.94
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 113.8
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 113.52
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 113.26
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 112.94
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 114.1
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 114.42
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 114.68  

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Model projection: 6.9414 versus 6.9629 previous (215 pi

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Model projection: 6.9414 versus 6.9629 previous (215 pips lower; 117 pips lower from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 6.9419 (210 pips lower from previous fix)."

AUD/USD has been looking to recover the recent losses on the 0.72 handle where the pair fell from a touch through 0.73 the figure earlier in the month

AUD/USD has rallied from the 0.7180s and scored a fresh high in early Asia on a slide in the greenback with 0.7250 on the radar.Thin trade allows the dollar to fall below the 97 handle in the DXY and helps the Aussie long to score fresh highs. AUD/USD has been looking to recover the recent losses on the 0.72 handle where the pair fell from a touch through 0.73 the figure earlier in the month. There has not been anything domestically great about the Aussie economy of late but there has been a slight turn up in positive sentiment that has supported the currency.  The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been a touch more optimistic, however with GDP forecasts higher, rising from 0.25pp to an above-consensus 3.50% in 2019 and 2020. At the same time, the unemployment rate was lowered 0.25pp to 4.75% in 2020 and inflation in 2020 is now seen as a “a bit higher” than its 2.25% forecast for 2019. Today's wages data will be a key focus with this regard.Eyes on wagesAnalysts at ANZ explained that they are looking for a 0.7% q/q rise in the WPI in Q3. "This would be a step up from the 0.5% q/q average gain over the past three years and the highest quarterly gain since March 2014. It would see annual growth in wages rise to 2.4%. While ongoing tighter labour market conditions will be supportive, the main drivers of strength will be the 3.5% lift in the minimum wage."AUD/USD levels"The pair would need to extend its advance past 0.7250 to actually regain its bullish stance, while bears will take full control on a break below 0.7130, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned decline," Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained. Meanwhile, analysts at Commerzbank argued that provided that the latter level holds, the September and current November highs at 0.7302/14 are expected to be revisited. "If this resistance zone were to be bettered, the 200-day moving average at 0.7459 and the July 9 high at 0.7484 would be in focus."

Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized came in at -1.2% below forecasts (-1%) in 3Q

Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) declined to -0.3% in 3Q from previous 0.1%

Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets expectations (-0.3%) in 3Q

EUR/USD was struggling in European trade following the plunge in ZEW with ZEW expectations arriving at -24.1 beating the -25 forecasted but hardly cha

EUR/USD has rallied through the 1.13 handle in thin liquidity in Asia as the dollar slides further.EUR/USD has followed sterling overnight but the dollar and thin liquidity is ultimately to blame for this move. The DXY is now below the 97 handle.EUR/USD was struggling in European trade following the plunge in ZEW with ZEW expectations arriving at -24.1 beating the -25 forecasted but hardly changed from the -24.7 while current conditions were plunging from 70.1 to 58.2 and below the 65 forecasted. Bears are looking for a test below the 1.12 handle but there was a strong reversal in the euro during the NY session and the price rallied from 1.1253 and through the 1.13 handle in early Asia as the greenback lost more traction in thin trade. A pre-Tokyo open of 1.1320 was made.EZ woes to cap bullish attempts:For the Eurozone, an old saying by Ben Bernanke rings a bell: recoveries don’t die of old age. However, they can definitely lose momentum. Analysts at ING Bank explained that the discussion between optimists and pessimists is getting fiercer. Recent developments have sparked uncertainty about the length of the expansion in the Eurozone as confidence among businesses and consumers has been hit by concerns about a trade war, Brexit, higher oil prices and emerging market turmoil. "This does not necessarily mean that the economy is set for a severe decline. The investment environment remains favourable with low borrowing rates, eased credit standards and high levels of capacity utilisation. Consumption continues to profit from lower levels of unemployment and cautious increases in wage growth." EUR/USD levelsThere is very little of significance on the 1.13 handle and it is only until the pair gets to the downtrend channel resistance line at 1.1460 where things can get interesting. Bulls could then look to target the 1.1432 early October low. "While the cross remains below the current November high at 1.1500 we will retain a medium-term bearish outlook," analysts at Commerzbank argued. The long-term pivot line was tested at 1.1258 and a break there again opens prospects for the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. " Failure there will put the late May and June 2017 lows at 1.1119/10 on the cards," the analysts at Commerzbank argued.  

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 2.8% (November) vs 1%

Analysts at Westpac noted that AUD/USD had bounced. Key Quotes: "AUD/USD had bounced about 40 pips to 0.7210 in Sydney trade, backed by optimistic h

Analysts at Westpac noted that AUD/USD had bounced.Key Quotes:"AUD/USD had bounced about 40 pips to 0.7210 in Sydney trade, backed by optimistic headlines about the US and China meeting to discuss a trade deal, plus a rally in the Chinese yuan which kept it away from the much-discussed 7 level versus USD." "The Aussie then traded near 0.7200 in London and NY, largely sidelined." "NZD was a bit more impressive, up 0.6% over the day at 0.6750. This saw AUD/NZD slip -0.2% to 1.0665."

South Korea Unemployment Rate: 3.9% (October) vs previous 4%

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand explained that markets were calmer overnight after recent volatility saw a lot of short-term uncertainty about Brexit

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand explained that markets were calmer overnight after recent volatility saw a lot of short-term uncertainty about Brexit and the Italian budget priced in. Key Quotes:"Equities made gains on headlines that there will be further talks between the US and China." "At the time of writing, the S&P is up 0.3%, while the DAX finished up 1.3% and FTSE 100 was unchanged." "Oil weakened with WTI down 4.6%, after OPEC warned that a supply glut could emerge next year as world demand slows and non-OPEC producers raise output. Oil is at the lowest level since February and OPEC has cut its forecasts for world oil demand in 2019." "Sterling surged, with the UK inching closer to a Brexit deal. Fixed income was firm with the US 10-year yield down 3bps."

USD/CAD daily chart USD/CAD is ending Tuesday virtually unchanged below 1.3250 brick wall.  USD/CAD is attempting to break meaningfully above th

USD/CAD daily chartUSD/CAD is ending Tuesday virtually unchanged below 1.3250 brick wall. USD/CAD is attempting to break meaningfully above the September high. USD/CAD 4-hour chartUSD/CAD is evolving in a small rising wedge just below 1.3250 in what appears to be a crowded trade to the upside. The Stochastic indicator is decelerating. USD/CAD 30-minute chartBulls objective is to break above 1.3250. It is most likely that any attempts above the level would soon fail. Bears will try to reach 1.3200 and 1.3140 to the downside.  Additional key levels at a glance:USD/CAD Overview:
    Last Price: 1.3238
    Daily change: -5.0 pips
    Daily change: -0.0378%
    Daily Open: 1.3243
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3106
    Daily SMA50: 1.3041
    Daily SMA100: 1.3071
    Daily SMA200: 1.2951
Levels:
    Daily High: 1.3245
    Daily Low: 1.3182
    Weekly High: 1.3233
    Weekly Low: 1.3056
    Monthly High: 1.3172
    Monthly Low: 1.2783
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3221
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3206
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3202
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3161
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.314
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3264
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3285
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3326  
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