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Thứ tư, Tháng sáu 26, 2019

EUR/USD is trading above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) suggesting that the bear trend is at risk. EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market is t

EUR/USD is in consolidation mode in the near term.On the way down, supports are at 1.1340 and 1.1310.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) suggesting that the bear trend is at risk.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market is trading sideways between 1.1340 and 1.1400 figure. Further down support is at 1.1310 if 1.1340 gets broken.
EUR/USD 30-minute chart EUR/USD is weakening below 1.1380 resistance suggesting a retracement down in the near term. According to the Technical Confluences Indicator, resistances are at the 1.1380 level and 1.1400 figure. Additional key levels  

Federal Reserve's Daly has crossed the wires saying that acting early to prevent rates falling to 0% is more effective than trying to move off zero ra

Federal Reserve's Daly has crossed the wires saying that acting early to prevent rates falling to 0% is more effective than trying to move off zero rates later. Addition comments  Risk management is on my mind. We have not seen 2% inflation sustainably and that is concerning. More research needed on how to retool balance sheet holding. Yield curve is a hard signal to read right now. Global uncertainty is behind flight to us debt. Inverted curve gives policymakers pause, but it is not only output.

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6687, between a range of 0.6596 and 0.6692, stalling at daily highs while the dollar gives back ground in New York.

NZD/USD capped ahead of 0.67 following RBNZ overnight.Bulls look to 0.67 handle is up for grabs which meet the 200-D EMA at 0.6708. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6687, between a range of 0.6596 and 0.6692, stalling at daily highs while the dollar gives back ground in New York. The Kiwi was bid throughout markets overnight following the Reserve Bank's decision to keep the OCR on hold at 1.50%. However, the RBNZ seems to have ramped up the likelihood that the OCR will be reduced further. Key notes from RBNZ (Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation summary): While the media release noted only that “a lower OCR may be needed”, the record of the Monetary Policy Committee’s meetings showed that “The members agreed that more support from monetary policy was likely to be necessary.” The detail of the press release and the record of meetings show growing concern about global conditions. The RBNZ’s view is that “The weaker global economy is affecting New Zealand through a range of trade, financial, and confidence channels.” The RBNZ was more circumspect about developments in the domestic economy. The softer housing market and the increase in government spending in the Budget were seen as offsetting factors. Given the tone of this statement from the RBNZ, we remain of the view that the RBNZ will most likely cut the OCR in August. The repeated comment that a lower OCR may be needed is blunter than the language used in March, which was followed by a cut in May. All in all, given the downside risks around the employment and inflation outlook, a lower OCR may be needed which is a weight on the bird. Meanwhile, the global economic outlook has weakened, and downside risks related to trade activity have intensified which indeed will likely be addressed at this weekend's G20, making for a potentially risk-off theme for sessions to come.  NZD/USD levels The daily Chaikin Oscillator was crossing above the zero-line ahead of the RBNZ while the bulls took on the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) in the sixth day of consecutive gains. The July 2018 double bottom lows around 0.6680 have been pierced and above there, the 0.67 handle is up for grabs which meet the 200-D EMA at 0.6708. To the downside, the 21-day EMA is located at 0.6584 now, guarding 0.6510 and 0.6480. 

United States 5-Year Note Auction: 1.791% vs previous 2.065%

USD/CAD is breaking below last week low while below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). USD/CAD 4-hour chart USD/CAD is under pressure belo

USD/CAD is under pressure approaching the 1.3100 figure.Bears need a breakout below last week low at 1.3150 support.  USD/CAD daily chart USD/CAD is breaking below last week low while below the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). 
USD/CAD 4-hour chart USD/CAD is under pressure below the main SMAs. Sellers want to reach 1.3084 swing low.
USD/CAD 30-minute chart The is trading below its main SMAs suggesting a negative bias. Resistances are seen at 1.3120 and 1.3150, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Additional key levels  

Following the sharp upsurge witnessed during the European trading hours, the USD/JPY pair has gone into a consolidation phase and is now moving in a r

10-year US T-bond yield gains 2% on Wednesday.US President Trump said it's possible to make a deal with Xi at G20.US Dollar Index struggles to extend its rebound.Following the sharp upsurge witnessed during the European trading hours, the USD/JPY pair has gone into a consolidation phase and is now moving in a relatively tight range in the upper half of its daily trading range. As of writing, the pair is up 0.5% on the day at 107.70. Earlier today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the trade deal with China was 90% completed to revive hopes of the U.S.-China trade conflict finally coming to an end. On a similar note, during an interview with Fox Business Network, President Trump stated that it was possible to reach an agreement on trade when he meets his Chinese counterpart Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit this weekend. Boosted by these remarks, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield gained traction and was last up more than 2% to reveal a strong risk-appetite, which makes it difficult for the safe-haven JPY to find demand. Furthermore, major equity indexes in the U.S. started the day in the positive territory to confirm the upbeat sentiment. On the other hand, today's uninspiring data releases from the U.S. didn't allow the US Dollar Index to continue to push higher, keeping the pair in a neutral state. The U.S. Census Bureau today announced that durable goods orders declined by 1.3% in May and the goods trade deficit rose to $74.55 billion in the same period. Retail trade figures from Japan will be coming up next in the Asian session. In the second half of the day, first-quarter (final) GDP data from the U.S. will be watched closely by the participants. Technical levels to consider  

USD/JPY daily chart USD/JPY is in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The 50 DSMA crossed below the 100 DSMA which is s

USD/JPY is having a bonce above the 107.00 handle.The level to beat for bulls is at 107.45.  USD/JPY daily chart USD/JPY is in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The 50 DSMA crossed below the 100 DSMA which is seen as a bearish clue. 
USD/JPY 4-hour chart USD/JPY is trading below its main SMAs suggesting bearish momentum in the medium term. Support is at 107.50, 107.10 and 106.70 according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.
USD/JPY 30-minute chart USD/JPY is trading above the 107.50 mark and its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near term. A break above 107.75 could open the gates to 108.10 resistance according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.
Additional key levels  

After holding around 1.1355/65 for hours the EUR/USD pair hit a daily low at 1.1345 and bounced to the upside, rising back above 1.1380. As of writing

Euro hits fresh daily highs versus US Dollar, remains within yesterday’s price range. US dollar losses momentum and drops, particularly against commodity and emerging market currencies. After holding around 1.1355/65 for hours the EUR/USD pair hit a daily low at 1.1345 and bounced to the upside, rising back above 1.1380. As of writing trades at the 1.1387, the highest level of the day, up 22 pips.  The move higher took place amid a decline of the US Dollar across the board. The DXY, after spending most of the time in positive territory, is now down 0.02% at 96.14, trimming yesterday’s gains.  Data and Trump as usual  In the US, the Durable Goods Orders report showed a decline in May of 1.3% in the headline and a negative revisions to previous data. Some details were positive.  “The drop in durable goods orders is mostly aircraft weakness amid Boeing’s struggles and explained the details were better with upticks in core capital goods orders and shipments, but the factory sector remains under pressure”, mentioned Wells Fargo analysts. Another report showed that goods trade balance widened in May to $74.55B.  Earlier, the German Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK showed a decline to 9.8, confirming the downbeat momentum.  Economic reports were in line with current expectation about the economic momentum and market participants ignored the data. Despite the numbers, equity prices in Wall Street are higher (off highs) supported by comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that fueled optimism about a trade deal between the US and China. In an interview, President Trump criticized again the policy of the Federal Reserve and regarding China considered that a deal is posibble and if no agreement is reach will impose new tariffs of around 10%, not 25%.  EUR/USD Levels to watch  The pair is testing the 1.1380 area if ti rises on top, the next short-term target might be seen at 1.1395 and if it continues, at 1.1410 (June 25 high) is the next resistance level to break. On the flip side, the immediate support is the 20-hour moving average at 1.1360, followed by 1.1340/45 (June 25 & 26 low) and 1.1315 (June 20 high).

According to the latest GDPNow report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the real GDP in the U.S. is expected to expand by 1.9%. "The G

According to the latest GDPNow report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the real GDP in the U.S. is expected to expand by 1.9%. "The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent on June 26, down from 2.0 percent on June 18," Atlanta Fed said in its publication.  "After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators and durable manufacturing reports from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of the contributions of net exports and inventory investment to second-quarter real GDP growth changed from 0.00 percentage points and -1.04 percentage points, respectively, to -0.38 percentage points and -0.80 percentage points, respectively." There was no market reaction to this publication and the US Dollar Index was posting small daily gains near 96.20.

Following a quick drop to 0.6615 with the knee-jerk reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy statement, the NZD/USD pair didn't hav

RBNZ keeps the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% as expected.Latest headlines revived hopes of the U.S.-China bringing trade conflict to an end.US Dollar Index clings to small daily gains despite uninspiring data.Following a quick drop to 0.6615 with the knee-jerk reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy statement, the NZD/USD pair didn't have a difficult time turning positive on the day and is now looking to extend its winning streak into 10th straight day. As of writing, the pair was up 0.67% on the day at 0.6682. As expected, the RBNZ announced that it left its policy rate unchanged at 1.5%. Assessing the policy statement, "Today's statement was in line with our expectations heading into the rate decision with the RBNZ shifting from a 'balanced' outlook to an easing bias - 'a lower OCR may be needed',” said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities. Revived hopes of the U.S. and China trade war coming to an end today helped antipodeans such as kiwi and the AUD gather strength. Earlier in the day U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin claimed that the trade deal was 90% completed. Complementing this comment, President Donald Trump stated that it was possible for them to reach a trade agreement with China when he meets Chinese President Xi at the G20 summit this weekend in Osaka, Japan. On the other hand, today's data from the U.S. showed that durable goods orders contracted by 1.3% on a monthly basis in May to fall short of the market expectation for a decline of 0.1%. Other data showed that the trade deficit in May rose to $74.55 billion. Despite the disappointing data, however, the US Dollar Index clings to small gains supported by recovering Treasury bond yields and caps the pair's gains for the time being. Technical levels to watch for  

Data released today showed a decline in Durable Goods Orders in May of 1.3%. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out the drop in durable goods orders is mos

Data released today showed a decline in Durable Goods Orders in May of 1.3%. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out the drop in durable goods orders is mostly aircraft weakness amid Boeing’s struggles and explained the details were better with upticks in core capital goods orders and shipments, but the factory sector remains under pressure.Key Quotes: “Durable goods orders for the month of May fell 1.3%, a full point worse than consensus expectations. The miss piles on to the recent run of worse than expected data coming from a broad swath of the economy, including the manufacturing sector but also housing and the consumer. Looking under the hood, however, suggests that capital spending is not falling off the rails, but equipment spending is still set to decline in the second quarter.” “Durable goods orders are particularly prone to miss forecasts based on the volatility in the sizeable aircraft sector. Boeing’s recent challenges with their 737 MAX model have amplified the importance of the transport sector on a month-to-month basis. Net cancellations led to nearly a 30% drop in nondefense aircraft orders over the month. That followed almost a 40% decline the previous month and obscures a modestly firmer trend in underlying core orders.” “While core capital goods orders suggest businesses are not fully retrenching as they await clarity on trade and contend with slowing growth abroad, equipment spending still looks set to contract this quarter.” “ The upshot is that the pipeline for manufacturing remains weak, but is likely not as dire as recent regional PMIs or total durable goods orders suggest. The tabling of Mexican tariffs points to some room for improvement, but without a resolution to trade disputes with China, we expect factory activity to continue to languish amid the resulting uncertainty and floundering global growth.”

GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is challenging the 1.2700 figure to the downside ne

GBP/USD is trading near its weekly low below the 1.2700 figure.The level to beat for bears is 1.2659 support.GBP/USD daily chart GBP/USD is trading in a bear trend below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is challenging the 1.2700 figure to the downside near weekly lows. GBP/USD 4-hour chart Cable is trading just below the 200 SMA suggesting potential bearish momentum in the medium term. The level to beat for bears is at 1.2659. If broken 1.2603 can be next for sellers, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.
GBP/USD 30-minute chart GBP/USD is trading below 1.2706 resistance and its 100/200 SMAs suggesting a potential correction down in the near term. Resistances are seen at 1.2706, 1.2750 and 1.2800 levels according to the Technical Confluences Indicator.
Additional key levels  

In its weekly petroleum report for the week ending June 21, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that the commercial crude oil invent

EIA reports a much larger-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories.Oil prices extend gains after data, WTI inches closer to critical $60 mark.In its weekly petroleum report for the week ending June 21, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that the commercial crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 12.8 million barrels from the previous week. With the initial reaction, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained traction and is now adding 1.8% on the day at $59.80. "Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day," the EIA further announced in its publication. "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, up by 1.8% from the same period last year."

With technical indicators on daily chart holding comfortably in the bullish territory and still far from pointing to overbought conditions, a convinci

The NZD/USD pair built on its post-RBNZ upsurge and climbed to two-month tops in the last hour, testing the 0.6985 strong horizontal resistance. This is closely followed by the 0.6700 congestion zone comprising of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.6939-0.6482 downfall.With technical indicators on daily chart holding comfortably in the bullish territory and still far from pointing to overbought conditions, a convincing break through the mentioned confluence hurdle will confirm a near-term bullish breakout. A follow-through buying has the potential to extend the positive momentum further towards its next major resistance near the 0.6765-70 region - marking 61.8% Fibonacci level en-route the 0.6800 round figure mark and the 0.6825-30 supply zone. On the flip side, the 0.6600 handle now becomes immediate strong base and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term bullish traders, which if broken might negate any short-term positive bias and again turn the pair vulnerable in the near-term.NZD/USD daily chart 

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change registered at -12.788M, below expectations (-2.54M) in June 21

EUR/USD is trading above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) suggesting that the bull trend is at risk. EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market brok

EUR/USD is retracing down in the near term.Looking down, the next supports in line are at 1.1340 and 1.1310.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) suggesting that the bull trend is at risk.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market broke below 1.1380 support. The market is set to decline towards the next support at 1.1340 and 1.1310.
EUR/USD 30-minute chart EUR/USD is weakening below 1.1380 resistance and the main SMAs suggesting a retracement down in the near term. According to the Technical Confluences Indicator, resistances are at the 1.1380 level and 1.1400 figure. Additional key levels  

As signalled by the rising stock futures, major equity indexes in the United States started the day in the positive territory boosted by stronger risk

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says 90% of trade deal is completed.President Trump says it's possible to reach a deal at G20.Technology and energy shares lead the rally on Wednesday.As signalled by the rising stock futures, major equity indexes in the United States started the day in the positive territory boosted by stronger risk-appetite amid renewed trade optimism. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.2% on the day while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were adding 0.3% and 1.1% on a daily basis. Earlier today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the trade deal with China was 90% completed and later President Trump told Fox Business that it was possible to reach a deal at the G20 when he meets his Chinese counterpart President Xi. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, was last down nearly 4% on the day to reflect the positive impact of these remarks on the market sentiment. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the risk-sensitive Technology Index is leading the rally with a daily gain of 1.7% ahead of the Energy Index, which was last up 1.3% on the back of rising crude oil prices. On the other hand, the defensive Utilities, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples are all in the negative territory in the early trade.

The USD/CHF pair held on to its mildly positive tone through the early North-American session and refreshed weekly tops in the last hour, albeit lacke

The USD builds on the overnight bounce and helped gain some follow-through traction.Improving risk sentiment undermines CHF’s safe-haven demand and remained supportive.Traders refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of Trump-Xi meeting later this week.The USD/CHF pair held on to its mildly positive tone through the early North-American session and refreshed weekly tops in the last hour, albeit lacked any strong follow-through. A combination of supporting factors helped the pair to continue gaining some traction for the second consecutive session on Wednesday and build on the previous session's goodish rebound from sub-0.9700 level, or yearly lows. The US Dollar remained supported by the overnight not so dovish comments by influential FOMC member and seemed largely unaffected by Wednesday's disappointing release of US durable goods orders data for May. On the other hand, improving global risk sentiment - as depicted by bullish trading sentiment around equity markets undermined the Swiss Franc's relative safe-haven demand and remained supportive of the positive momentum. The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's remarks on Wednesday, as quoted by CNBC - though were rectified immediately, provided a strong intraday boost to investors’ appetite for riskier assets and dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets. The uptick, however, lacked any strong bullish conviction as investors preferred to remain on the sidelines and wait for fresh trade-related updates from the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at G20 summit later this week.  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the pair might have actually bottomed out in the near-term and positioning for further appreciating move beyond the 0.9800 handle.Technical levels to watch 

Robert Both, macro strategist at TD Securities, points out that the Bank of Canada will publish the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) on Friday, June 28th

Robert Both, macro strategist at TD Securities, points out that the Bank of Canada will publish the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) on Friday, June 28th amid an increasingly murky global backdrop.Key Quotes“If the consultation period mirrors that of the 2018 survey (May 3rd - June 5th) it would overlap with a sharp increase in US-China tensions and the start of the short-lived US-Mexico skirmish.” “With the April BOS showing a broad pullback in quantitative BOS measures, the developments over the last three months raise the question of whether the June survey will continue this trend and paint the picture for lower rates.”  

The USD/CAD pair dropped to 1.3140 area earlier in the day but staged a modest rebound in the last hour supported by a stronger greenback. As of writi

Renewed trade optimism helps the greenback recover its losses.US Pres. Trump calls Fed policy 'insane' during an interview.WTI climbs to fresh June highs above $59.The USD/CAD pair dropped to 1.3140 area earlier in the day but staged a modest rebound in the last hour supported by a stronger greenback. As of writing, the pair was trading at 1.3160, losing 0.05% on a daily basis. Earlier today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the U.S.-China trade deal was 90% completed. On a similar tone, President Trump told Fox Business that there was a possibility of them reaching a trade deal with China when he meets President Xi on the sidelines at the G20 meeting in Japan. The renewed trade optimism provided a boost to the 10-year Treasury bond yield and allowed the greenback to continue to erase the losses it suffered against its rivals following the FOMC's dovish shift last week. Meanwhile, the data from the U.S. showed that durable goods orders contracted by 1.3% on a monthly basis in May and the goods trade deficit rose to $74.55 billion from $70.92 billion. Despite the disappointing data, the US Dollar Index didn't have a difficult time staying in the positive territory and was last up 0.08% on the day at 96.26. On the other hand, hopes of the U.S. and China ending the trade conflict also helped crude oil prices continue to rise, allowing the commodity-sensitive loonie to show resilience. At the moment, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate is trading at its highest level of June above $59, adding 0.8% on a daily basis. Technical levels to consider  

The rally in crude prices remains everything but abated so far today, lifting the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil to fr

Prices of WTI extend the rally to levels above $59.00.The API reported a 7.77M barrels drop in US crude supplies.The weekly report by the EIA is coming up next.The rally in crude prices remains everything but abated so far today, lifting the barrel of the American reference for the sweet light crude oil to fresh tops in the area beyond the $59.00 mark.WTI now looks to EIA reportThe relentless up move in prices of the West Texas Intermediate gathered extra wings today after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported late on Tuesday a reduction of 7.55M barrel in US crude oil supplies during last week. In addition, prices met extra oxygen after the White House announced new sanctions against Iran, aggravating the situation of the oil industry in the OPEC member. Moving forward, the EIA will publish its weekly report on US crude oil inventories ahead of Friday’s oil rig count by driller Baker Hughes.What to look for around WTIGeopolitical jitters around the US and Iran remain nonstop for the time being and keep sustaining the upside momentum in crude oil prices. In fact, tensions between both countries are seen escalating in the very near term following the new round of US sanctions, targeting both country and officials and including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The potential meeting between Trump and China’s Xi at the G-20 event could lend extra legs to the rally if some progress on the trade front is signalled. Also bolstering the upbeat sentiment among traders are the tight US market, the OPEC+ agreement to curb oil production and the so-called ‘Saudi put’.WTI significant levelsAt the moment the barrel of WTI is advancing 0.92% at $59.10 and a breakout of $59.48 (55-day SMA) would aim for $60.73 (23.6% Fibo of the December-April rally) and finally $63.79 (monthly high May 20). On the flip side, the next down barrier arises at $57.19 (38.2% Fibo of the December-April rally) seconded by $54.50 (21-day SMA) and finally $50.54 (monthly low Jun.5).

Gold held on to its weaker tone through the early North-American session, albeit pared a part of its intraday slide to the $1400 neighbourhood post-US

US durable goods orders miss consensus estimates; previous month’s readings were also revised lower.The USD fails to preserve intraday gains on the back of dismal data and provided a minor lift in the last hour.The prevailing risk-on mood undermines demand for traditional safe-haven assets and capped the bounce.Gold held on to its weaker tone through the early North-American session, albeit pared a part of its intraday slide to the $1400 neighbourhood post-US economic data. The precious metal remained under some heavy selling pressure through the major part of European trading session on Wednesday and extended previous session's sharp pullback from multi-year tops, triggered by not so dovish comments by influential FOMC members.  This coupled with positive trade-related remarks by the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin - though were rectified immediately, weighed on the commodity's perceived safe-haven status, further collaborating to the intraday slide back closer to the key $1400 psychological mark. Meanwhile, the US Dollar failed to capitalize on its intraday up-move and started losing traction following the latest disappointment from US economic data - showing that durable goods orders fell by 1.3% in May, which eventually underpinned demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The recovery, however, lacked any strong follow-through amid positive mood around equity markets, though the downside now seems limited as investors might now refrain from placing any aggressive bets ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of G20 summit later this week.  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained break through the mentioned handle before confirming that the commodity might have already formed a temporary top and positioning for any further corrective slide in the near-term.Technical levels to watch 

According to analysts at ANZ, the contentious issue of the quantum of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) excess reserves to be transferred to the gover

According to analysts at ANZ, the contentious issue of the quantum of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) excess reserves to be transferred to the government is once again in the spotlight.Key Quotes“The consultative committee group led by ex-RBI Governor Bimal Jalan is due to present its recommendations in the next few weeks.” “The RBI needs reserves to manage market risk arising from changes in the valuation of its holdings of domestic and foreign currency assets and to support its intervention operations.” “However, both from an international and local perspective, the RBI appears to be holding reserves in excess of what is needed to manage the underlying risks.” “A transfer of reserves via a special dividend is feasible. This however, does not mean that the government can use these reserves for any purpose. Uses other than recapitalising banks or retiring public debt will have monetary and potentially inflationary consequences.” “A well-defined legal framework on the transfer of reserves would go a long way in giving confidence to financial market participants over the independence and autonomy of the central bank.”

USD/CAD is trading below the 1.3200 figure and the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). USD/CAD 4-hour chart USD/CAD remains under pressure belo

USD/CAD is consolidating last week losses.Bears need a breakout below last week low at 1.3150 support. USD/CAD daily chart USD/CAD is trading below the 1.3200 figure and the main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). 
USD/CAD 4-hour chart USD/CAD remains under pressure below the main SMAs. Sellers want to break below 1.3150 (last week low) to reach 1.3120 and 1.3084 swing lows.
USD/CAD 30-minute chart The market is testing last week low. Resistances are seen at 1.3200, 1.3232, 1.3310 and 1.3345, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. Additional key levels  

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a remains at 3.5% in May

Mexico Jobless Rate meets expectations (3.5%) in May

The greenback is so far clinging to its daily gains around the 96.30 region when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY). US Dollar Index cautious ahead

The index follows the sideline theme prevailing in global markets.Durable Goods Orders shrunk 1.3% inter-month in May.EIA report on US crude oil supplies coming up next.The greenback is so far clinging to its daily gains around the 96.30 region when measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY).US Dollar Index cautious ahead of G-20The index remains on a positive note so far today, extending the correction higher to the 96.30 region although the increasing cautious tone in the global markets prevented the buck to advance further. In the meantime, DXY is up for the second session in a row, managing to reverse part of last week’s sharp sell-off after Powell talked down the likeliness of a rate cut in the very near term at his speech on Tuesday. In the data space, flash Trade Balance figures showed the trade deficit widened to $74.55 billion during May while Durable Goods Orders contracted more than expected at 1.3% MoM during last month. Later in the day, the EIA will publish its weekly report on US crude oil supplies and San Francisco Fed M.Daly (2021 voter, centrist) will speak at the Forecasters Club of New York.What to look for around USDSpeculations of a rate cut as early as the next meeting have lost traction in past hours after Fed’s Powell remove some tailwinds from that idea, although the case for lower rates in the near/medium term remains in place for the time being. The Fed is expected to keep the data-dependent stance intact while it continues to scrutinize the US-China trade situation and weakness overseas.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.08% at 96.26 and faces the next hurdle at 96.58 (200-day SMA) seconded by 97.36 (55-day SMA) and finally 97.77 (high Jun.18). On the other hand, a breach of 95.82 (low Feb.28) would open the door to 95.74 (low Mar.20) and then 95.16 (low Jan.31).

In view of analysts at TD Securities, energy market participants are closely watching for headlines from an expected meeting between President Putin a

In view of analysts at TD Securities, energy market participants are closely watching for headlines from an expected meeting between President Putin and Crown Prince MBS this week at the G20, which could set the tone for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.Key Quotes“At the same time, market participants are likely keeping their risk budget close to their chest ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Xi, which many see as a key indicator of the next leg of negotiations on the trade file.” “While OPEC members are aware that supply risks remain abound, with Iranian-US tensions at a boil, the Libyan conflict still ongoing and Venezuelan production still crumbling, the demand side of the equation remains the key uncertainty.” “We suspect that this will secure an extension to the supply curtailment agreement, which we think is in the bag. And, the cartel may recognize further risks to global demand, which would opening the door to "stealth cuts", suggesting Saudi may keep compliance north of the 100% mark.”

The AUD/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early North-American session and had a rather muted reaction to the latest US macro releas

The latest disappointment from the US economic data caps the attempted USD bounce.Renewed US-China optimism fails to impress the bulls or provide any meaningful impetus.Sustained move beyond the 0.70 needed to confirm any follow-through appreciating move.The AUD/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early North-American session and had a rather muted reaction to the latest US macro releases. With investors looking past the overnight not so dovish comments by influential FOMC members and despite a follow-through US Dollar recovery, the pair regained traction and climbed to over two-week tops on Wednesday.  The positive momentum faltered ahead of the key 0.70 psychological mark and failed to capitalize on the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's comments, saying that a US-China trade deal is about 90% complete. Meanwhile, the USD trimmed a part of its early gains following the latest disappointment from the US economic data - showing that durable goods orders dropped 1.3% in May as compared to a fall of 0.1% expected.  Adding to this, the previous month's readings were also revised lower from the already weaker prints, which kept a lid on the greenback's attempted recovery and remained supportive of the bid tone surrounding the major. Despite the positive factors, the pair seemed to lack any strong bullish conviction as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the crucial Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of G20 summit later this week.  Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through momentum beyond the 0.70 handle before traders start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move beyond monthly highs, around the 0.7020 region.Technical levels to watch 

Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, points out that the expectations of a no deal Brexit have risen which is a direct consequence of the pol

Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank, points out that the expectations of a no deal Brexit have risen which is a direct consequence of the political stance of Boris Johnson, the frontrunner in the election of Conservative Party leader. Key Quotes“In view of the political uncertainty, GBP is clearly vulnerable.   The EUR/GBP0.90 level is a key psychological level for the pound, but is it likely to be repeatedly threatened ahead of the Brexit deadline on October 31 given the risk of a no deal Brexit.” “Bookies odds and opinion polls suggest that Boris Johnson would currently win 60% to 80% of the vote of Tory party members. The results of the European Party elections in May made it clear that many Tory voters were ready to desert to the Brexit Party if the government continued to stall over Brexit.  All contenders for the leadership vote duly hardened their Brexit positions.” “In view of the fears associated with a no deal Brexit, GBP investors would favour a UK government led by Hunt over Johnson. That said, the higher risk that Johnson would be prepared to go head to head with parliament over a no deal Brexit brings in the potential of a no confidence vote.  This could lead to a general election.” “The degree of uncertainty associated with the outcome of any general election and the policies of any new government would likely to be huge.  The implication is that GBP volatility could increase.   If Brexit is delayed into next year we see room for some relief and for EUR/GBP to drop back to the 0.86 area on a 6 month view.  On a no deal Brexit, we expect EUR/GBP to push towards parity.”

During his interview with Fox Business Network, U.S. President Trump, once again, voiced his criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary stance, calli

During his interview with Fox Business Network, U.S. President Trump, once again, voiced his criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary stance, calling their policy 'insane.'  "The ECB is pouring money in while Fed is taking money out," Trump further argued. Trump also reiterated that Powell was doing a bad job. Regarding reports of his administration looking at their legal options to demote FOMC Chairman Powell, Trump stated that he never suggested to fire or demote Powell.  

The data published by the U.S. Census Bureau today showed that durable goods orders declined by 1.3% on a monthly basis in May to miss the market expe

Durable goods orders decline on a monthly basis in May.Trade deficit widens in May, US Dollar Index preserves modest daily gains.The data published by the U.S. Census Bureau today showed that durable goods orders declined by 1.3% on a monthly basis in May to miss the market expectation for an increase of 0.2%.  Other data from the U.S. revealed that the doos trade deficit widened to $74.55 billion from $70.92 billion in April and wholesale inventories rose 0.4% in April following March's 0.9% reading. With the initial market reaction to the mixed data, the US Dollar Index continues to float in the positive territory above the 96.20 mark. 

EUR/USD alternates gains with losses in the middle of the week, entering into a consolidative/cautious theme near the 1.1360 region and ahead of the G

EUR/USD navigates within the familiar range around 1.1360.Cautious trade expected to prevail ahead of G-20 event.US Durable Goods Orders contracted 1.3% MoM in May.EUR/USD alternates gains with losses in the middle of the week, entering into a consolidative/cautious theme near the 1.1360 region and ahead of the G-20 meeting.EUR/USD faces further consolidationSpot trades without a clear direction so far today following Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ and despite the improved mood in the risk-associated complex. The pair shed part of its weekly gains and has receded from levels beyond 1.1400 the figure – or 3-month peaks – recorded yesterday in response to a pick up in the demand for the buck. In this regard, the rebound in yields of the US 10-year reference is putting the Japanese safe haven under downside pressure, lifting USD/JPY to new weekly highs. Earlier in the day, the German Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK eased to 9.8 for the month of July, confirming the downbeat momentum in the German economy. Across the Atlantic, Durable Goods Orders contracted at a monthly 1.3% during May and advanced trade figures showed the deficit widened to $74.55 billion in May.What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.05% at 1.1360 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1344 (low Jun.25) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18). On the flip side, a break above 1.1412 (high Jun.25) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

United States Wholesale Inventories came in at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in April

Additional comments from U.S. President Trump continue to cross the wires as he speaks in an interview with Fox Business. Trump said that if he were t

Additional comments from U.S. President Trump continue to cross the wires as he speaks in an interview with Fox Business. Trump said that if he were to decide to place additional tariffs on Chinese products they would likely be 10% rather than 25%.  Earlier in the interview, Trump said it was possible for him to reach an agreement with his Chinese counterpart Xi when they meet at G20 at the end of the month in Japan.

United States Goods Trade Balance dipped from previous $-72.12B to $-74.55B in May

United States Durable Goods Orders below expectations (-0.1%) in May: Actual (-1.3%)

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation above expectations (0.1%) in May: Actual (0.3%)

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense came in at -0.6% below forecasts (1.4%) in May

In an interview with Fox Business, the U.S. President Trump said that China knows what the U.S. has to have for the trade deal. "Would do additional t

In an interview with Fox Business, the U.S. President Trump said that China knows what the U.S. has to have for the trade deal.  "Would do additional tariffs if there is no trade deal with China." "It is possible U.S. will reach a trade deal with China, but happy where things are now." "It is possible he could reach a trade deal with Xi at G20 and avoid the need for further tariffs." "U.S. has had conversations with China over last few days on trade." "China wants to make a trade deal more than the U.S."

Helge J. Pedersen, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that after nearly three weeks of intensive negotiations in Denmark, the Social Democrats have

Helge J. Pedersen, analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that after nearly three weeks of intensive negotiations in Denmark, the Social Democrats have now managed to land an agreement with the supporting parties the Social-Liberal Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Red Green Alliance.Key Quotes“The new government will be a Social-Democratic minority government headed by Mette Frederiksen as prime minister. The new ministers are expected to be named tomorrow.” “The last time the Social Democrats were in power was during the parliamentary term 2011-2015 when Helle Thorning-Schmidt headed two governments. The first one in alliance with the Social-Liberal Party and the Socialist People’s Party. The latter party chose to withdraw from the government in December 2014, though. During the remainder of the parliamentary term, Denmark therefore had a two-party coalition government consisting and the Social Democrats and the Social-Liberal Party.” “The new government agreement has been called “a fair direction for Denmark” and it includes a number of pledges: The new government wants to: Be a frontrunner in the fight against the climate crisis, strengthen welfare again, fight the rising inequality, focus on education, facilitate integration and take global responsibility.”

The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on its intraday up-move beyond the 1.2700 handle and quickly retreated around 25-pips in the last hour. Having d

No-deal Brexit fears continue to keep a lid on any attempted bounce.The USD builds on the overnight bounce and adds to the selling bias.Investors now look forward to the US economic data for fresh impetus.The GBP/USD pair failed to capitalize on its intraday up-move beyond the 1.2700 handle and quickly retreated around 25-pips in the last hour. Having dropped to weekly lows, around the 1.2660 region, the pair gained some traction during the early European session but lacked any strong conviction amid increasing fears of a no-deal Brexit. The favourite UK PM candidate Boris Johnson's commitment to leave the EU by October 31st, even without a deal held the GBP bulls on the sidelines and continued capping the attempted up-moves. Investors were further discouraged by the BoE Governor Mark Carney's comments that uncertainty is hurting economic performance and that the central bank may cut rates in case of a no-deal Brexit. On the other hand, the US Dollar remained supported by the overnight not so dovish comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which added to the selling bias. Meanwhile, the downside remained limited, at least for the time being, as investors now look forward to Wednesday’s key highlight – the release of US durable goods orders data, for some fresh impetus. Technical levels to watchAs Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst notes – “Some resistance awaits at 1.2710 which provided support to the pair earlier this week. It is followed by 1.2765 which was temporarily broken. 1.2815 was a swing high in mid-May, and it is followed by 1.2870 which was April's low.” “Below uptrend support, the next line to watch is 1.2660 which is the daily low. It is closely followed by 1.2640 that provided support twice in June. 1.2605 capped GBP/USD in mid-June and served as support beforehand. 1.2558 and 1.2505 are next,” he added further.

Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the slew of Fed speak suggests that easing is imminent, but less propensity to delive

Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the slew of Fed speak suggests that easing is imminent, but less propensity to deliver in size.Key Quotes“We agree and think the Fed prefers to move in 25bp increments rather than 50bp on a per meeting basis. Suffice to say, a retracement in the scope of implied easing in the curve leaves the USD tactically vulnerable to retrace higher; but this should be viewed as positioning related rather than trend inducing.”

Citing two European Central Bank (ECB) sources familiar with talks, Reuters' Francesco Canepa wrote that "an obscure clause in government bond contrac

Citing two European Central Bank (ECB) sources familiar with talks, Reuters' Francesco Canepa wrote that "an obscure clause in government bond contracts may help the European Central Bank clear a key hurdle to launching a fresh stimulus programme by allowing it to own even more government debt." Pointing out the fact that the ECB's self-imposed ban on owning more than a third of each country's debt is not allowing it to accumulate more public sector bonds, Canepa explains: "This so-called issuer limit is designed to prevent the ECB from becoming a "blocking minority" if a country applies for a debt restructuring and its bondholders have to vote on it." "But under possible solutions studied by staff of the euro zone's 19 national central banks, this constraint may be circumvented by stripping central banks of their voting rights, two sources familiar with the matter said."

Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for the month of May. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release

US durable goods orders overviewWednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for the month of May. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the monthly report at 12:30 GMT and consensus estimates point to a modest rebound of 0.2% in the headlines figures as compared to the previous month's sharp decline of 2.1%.  Excluding transportation items - core durable goods orders, which tend to have a broader impact than the volatile headline figures are also anticipated to post a modest rise of 0.1% during the reported month. Meanwhile, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts, a proxy for business investment are forecast to rise by 0.1% after April’s 1.0% drop. However, analysts at TD Securities are expecting the US durable goods orders to dip -1.0% m/m in May and commented “Another notable decline in the highly volatile nondefense aircraft segment (driven by ongoing Boeing woes) should continue to drag the headline measure lower despite an expected improvement in auto sales at 2% m/m. We have a mixed view on the core measures: we pencil in a 0.1% m/m retreat in the durable goods ex-transportation segment, while expecting a 0.2% bounce in core capex orders following its 1.0% drop in April.”Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction is likely to be in the range of 20-25 pips during the first 15-minutes in case of a deviation from +0.36 to -0.51 and could extend up to 51-55 pips in the following 4-hours. EUR/USD important levels to watchYohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels ahead of the important release – “Resistance awaits at 1.1375 which was the daily high. It is followed by 1.1415 that capped the currency pair's rise on Wednesday and is the highest level in three months. Further up, 1.1445 was a peak back in March, and the next hurdle is only at 1.1520.” “Looking down, support awaits at 1.1350 which capped the pair in early June. It is followed by 1.1320 that was a stepping stone on the way up last week, and then 1.1270that provided support in mid-June,” he added further.Key Notes   •  US Durable Goods Orders Preview: Recovery but where is the trend?    •  EUR/USD Forecast: Fed fears fade and the rally may resume    •  EUR/USD struggles for direction in the 1.1350/60 bandAbout US durable goods ordersThe Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

The Norwegian Krone has recovered some shine on Wednesday and is now dragging EUR/NOK to the area of 9.6600, or session lows. EUR/NOK looks to data, o

EUR/NOK met important resistance in the 9.7100 area.Rising crude oil prices give support to the Krone.Norway unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.2%during April.The Norwegian Krone has recovered some shine on Wednesday and is now dragging EUR/NOK to the area of 9.6600, or session lows.EUR/NOK looks to data, oilNOK is reversing part of the negative start of the week, retreating to the 9.6600 region on the back of solid labour market data, rising crude oil prices and a broad-based improvement in the risk-associated universe. In fact, today’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) showed that the unemployment rate dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 3.2% during April, with the employed persons rising by 14K. In addition, prices of the European benchmark Brent crude are now retreating from tops beyond the $66.00 mark per barrel although they keep the firm tone intact and are already rising more than 11% since recent lows in the psychological $60.00 neighbouhood. Recent labour market figures added to the solid fundamentals in the Scandinavian economy and at the same time reinforce the hawkish stance from the Norges Bank, which is expected to hike rates once again in Q3. The better tone in the riskier assets is also supporting the Krone today, while any progress from the potential Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 event could lend extra oxygen to the currency.What to look for around NOKThe mood around the risk complex, Brent-dynamics, a healthy economy and a hawkish central bank continue to be the main drivers for the Norwegian currency for the time being. Recent results from the Regional Network Survey showed fundamentals in the Nordic economy remain pretty solid, reinforcing the case of further tightening by the Norges Bank in the upcoming months as well as a stronger Krone.EUR/NOK significant levelsAs of writing the cross is up 0.30% at 9.6707 and faces the next up barrier at 9.7234 (55-day SMA) seconded by 9.8318 (monthly high Jun.11) and then 9.8761 (monthly high May 10). On the other hand, a breach of 9.6460 (low Jun.21) would expose 9.6221 (78.6% Fibo of the April-May rally) and finally 9.5896 (monthly low Mar.21).

After posting losses on Monday and Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair gained traction on Wednesday and rose to its highest level in a week at 107.75 boosted by

US Treasury Sec. Mnuchin claims trade deal is 90% complete.Commerce Sec. Ross says the U.S. is hoping to get a reasonable deal with China.Wall Street looks to open in green, 10-year T-bond yield extends recovery.After posting losses on Monday and Tuesday, the USD/JPY pair gained traction on Wednesday and rose to its highest level in a week at 107.75 boosted by improved market sentiment. As of writing, the pair was trading at 107.70, adding 0.5% on a daily basis.  Earlier in the day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin claimed that the U.S.-China trade deal was 90% complete but refrained from giving any information on the possible timing of the deal. Additionally, during an interview with Fox Business Network, Commerce Secretary Ross said that the U.S. was looking to make get a "reasonable deal" with China. As of writing, the 10-year US Treasury bond was up more than 1.5% on the day and the S&P 500 Futures was adding 0.4% to suggest that Wall Street is looking to start the day on a strong footing, both confirming upbeat market sentiment. Goods trade balance, durable goods orders, and wholesale inventories from the U.S. will be looked upon for fresh impetus in the second half of the day. Yesterday, St. Louis Fed President Bullard argued against a 50 basis points rate cut in July helped the greenback to stage a modest recovery. Upbeat data are likely to provide additional support to the US Dollar Index, which was last seen posting small daily gains above 96.20, and lift the pair toward the 108 handle. Technical levels to watch for  

In an interview with Fox Business, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the United States was looking for a 'reasonable' deal with China over

In an interview with Fox Business, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said that the United States was looking for a 'reasonable' deal with China over trade.  Earlier today, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the trade deal was 90% completed but didn't want to speculate on the timing of the deal. These latest optimistic comments seem to be helping the market sentiment improve with the S&P 500 Futures rising 0.4% and the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is adding 1.6%.

In a recently published statement, China's State Council reiterated that they will maintain a prudent monetary policy and will fine-tune it in a "pre-

In a recently published statement, China's State Council reiterated that they will maintain a prudent monetary policy and will fine-tune it in a "pre-emptive way." Below are some key takeaways, as reported by Reuters. "Will roll out measures to cut financing costs for smaller firms." "Will keep liquidity reasonably ample-china state media." "Will deepen market-based interest rate reform-china state media." "Will improve commercial banks' lending rate pricing mechanism." "Bond issuance by financial institutions to make loans for smaller firms to rise significantly this year-china state media." "Will ensure significant increase in credit to manufacturing sector this year."

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Carney cross the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Carney cross the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC) as part of the Inflation Report Hearings.  "Monetary policy is accommodative, but is not extraordinarily accommodative." "If headwinds to economy lift, higher rates would be appropriate." These comments from Governor Carney are neither new or surprising and the GBP/USD pair continues to largely ignore them and was last seen posting small daily losses below the 1.27 handle.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications: 1.3% (June 21) vs -3.4%

The European Commission recently said that the European Union will not renegotiate the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, adding that the EU will work with

The European Commission recently said that the European Union will not renegotiate the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, adding that the EU will work with any UK Prime Minister in "spirit of cooperation." Meanwhile, PM candidate Boris Johnson called the current Brexit deal "basically dead" and claimed that parliament was ready to back a no-deal Brexit. Additionally, Johson told talkRADIO that he could categorically rule out a Brexit extension and reiterated that he "will not rest" until they get out of the EU on October 31.   

Rabobank analysts point out that the ECB President Draghi all but announced new stimulus at last week's Sintra conference which was a clear U-turn fro

Rabobank analysts point out that the ECB President Draghi all but announced new stimulus at last week's Sintra conference which was a clear U-turn from the ECB’s hope that their next move would be a rate hike – and perhaps even surprising some of his peers, backing them into a corner.Key Quotes“While markets were already preparing themselves for a rate cut, Draghi has accelerated the market’s time table. A deposit rate cut is now fully priced by September, with one follow-up cut expected.” “We have even pencilled in two more cuts than the market anticipates, and we see the deposit rate reach -80bp by June 2020. As a result, we believe that short rates have a bit further to fall.” “Importantly, we believe that mitigating measures may weaken the pass-through of policy rates to Eonia and Euribors slightly, which may cause some widening in tenor basis spreads the lower the ECB cuts its deposit rate. Yet, we believe the ECB will preserve enough excess liquidity to keep a firm grip on money market rates.”

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Carney cross the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Carney cross the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC).  "Tightness in the UK labour market has been feeding through into pay growth." "UK has had worst decade for real income growth since the 1850s." "Shifts in immigration have only a marginal effect on wages and inflation." "100,000 change in net migration would affect inflation rate by about 0.1 percentage points." The GBP/USD pair doesn't seem to be paying any attention to Carney's remarks as it trades in a relatively tight range near the 1.27 mark.

The Turkish Lira keeps the positive note so far this week, taking USD/TRY to the middle of the daily range in the 5.7700 area. USD/TRY focused on pote

USD/TRY remains on the defensive so far this week.TRY stays supported following Sunday’s elections.US-Turkey effervescence over the S-400 system in centre stage.The Turkish Lira keeps the positive note so far this week, taking USD/TRY to the middle of the daily range in the 5.7700 area.USD/TRY focused on potential US sanctionsSomewhat alleviated concerns on the US-China trade war plus some positive headlines involving North Korea and the US have been underpinning the improved sentiment in the EM FX space in general, and the Lira in particular. However, the imminent delivery of the Russian S-400 defence system to Ankara could spark a fresh round of US sanctions against the country, always with the US-made F-35 jets as the bargaining chip. On the more domestic front, the recent results from the mayoral elections in Istanbul have given fresh wings to the Lira as well, although the upbeat momentum in the currency remains fragile to say the least.What to look for around TRYRecently, the CBRT left no doubts it will continue to support the current tight monetary conditions. However, the enduring disinflation process seen in past months opens the door to a potential shift from the central bank to a more accommodative stance, including the palpable chance of rate cuts despite this move on rates appears untimely in the near (and medium) term. On the positive view, TRY could gain some support along with the rest of the EM FX space in response to the recent shift of the Federal Reserve to a more dovish view on it monetary conditions. On the not-so-bright side emerges the protracted US-China trade dispute and its impact on the global growth. Still on the negatives, the country keeps delaying the implementation of the much-needed structural reforms, which carries the potential to undermine prospects of economic growth in the medium-to-longer run.USD/TRY key levelsAt the moment the pair is losing 0.22% at 5.7813 and a breakdown of 5.7116 (low Jun.24) would aim for 5.7025 (50% Fibo retracement of the 2019 rally) and then 5.6560 (low Jun.5). On the other hand, the next up barrier is located at 5.9076 (55-day SMA) followed by 5.9326 (high Jun.14) and finally 6.1516 (high May 23).

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the US durable goods orders to dip -1.0% m/m in May, following a larger 2.1% drop in April. Key Quotes “Anothe

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the US durable goods orders to dip -1.0% m/m in May, following a larger 2.1% drop in April.Key Quotes“Another notable decline in the highly volatile nondefense aircraft segment (driven by ongoing Boeing woes) should continue to drag the headline measure lower despite an expected improvement in auto sales at 2% m/m. We have a mixed view on the core measures: we pencil in a 0.1% m/m retreat in the durable goods ex-transportation segment, while expecting a 0.2% bounce in core capex orders following its 1.0% drop in April.”

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Carney cross the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury

Additional comments from Bank of England Governor Carney cross the wires, via Reuters, as he continues to testify before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC).  "Does not expect a turn-around in weak uk business investment in short term." "Some recent increase in UK business investment probably due to change in accounting treatment of equipment leases." "Survey data points to lacklustre business investment in second quarter." "UK is not seeing debt-fuelled consumption growth in any shape or form." "Sustainability of employment and wage growth will be affected by Brexit, this could influence household spending." "UK economy is near an equilibrium."

In view of James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, intensifying trade war fears and an inventory overhang are weighing on the US manufa

In view of James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, intensifying trade war fears and an inventory overhang are weighing on the US manufacturing sector as depicted by the recent data releases.Key Quotes“The latest set of regional manufacturing surveys have been dire. The NY Empire survey saw a record fall, the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is at a three-year low, the Philadelphia Fed survey is a relative outperformer at only a four-month low while Richmond survey managed to modestly beat market expectations, though still fell. Taking these altogether they point to a sizeable drop in the national ISM measure, which is already at its lowest level since October 2016. There is the very real prospect it dips below the break-even 50 level on Monday.” “The ISM manufacturing index has historically been one of the best lead indicators for US GDP growth, although its predictive power has seemingly become less strong in recent years, reflecting the diminishing importance of the sector in terms of total economic output. Nonetheless, a sub-50 ISM will heighten concerns within the Federal Reserve that the economy is softening and with little prospect that trade tensions will ease in the near term, there is a growing probability the Federal Reserve will choose to act pre-emptively to try and support the economy through lowering interest rates.” “Should trade talks go badly over the weekend, the ISM breaks below 50 and next Friday’s jobs report offers further evidence of a slowdown in hiring we will seriously have to consider putting in an additional July rate cut into our forecast.”

While testifying before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC), Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Saunders arg

While testifying before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee (TSC), Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Saunders argued that rolling Brexit deadlines would bring heightened uncertainty and damage economic growth. However, Saunders added that the damage from a no-deal Brexit would still be greater than that from rolling deadlines. Moreover, "Crystallising the risk businesses are most worried about on Brexit would be the worst way to resolve Brexit uncertainty," Governor Carney told the TSC. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD is flat on the day near 1.2700.

The mentioned handle coincides with 38.2% Fibo. level of the $1342-$1439 recent upsurge, which if broken decisively would be seen as a key trigger for

Gold extended previous session retracement slide from multi-year tops and remained heavily offered through the mid-European session on Wednesday.The intraday slide, at least for the time being, seemed to show some resilience near 100-hour SMA, or ahead of the key $1400 psychological mark.The mentioned handle coincides with 38.2% Fibo. level of the $1342-$1439 recent upsurge, which if broken decisively would be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and trigger further intraday weakness. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart have already drifted into bearish territory and have been losing positive momentum on the 4-hourly chart, while still remained in the overbought zone on the daily chart. The set-up clearly points to an eventual bearish breakdown, below which the corrective slide could further get extended towards $1382 horizontal zone with some intermediate support near 50% Fibo. level - around the $1390 region.Gold 1-hourly chart 

More comments are flowing in from the BOE Chief Carney, this time on the Brexit deadline. Cannot have no-deal brexit and benefit from GATT 24, need so

More comments are flowing in from the BOE Chief Carney, this time on the Brexit deadline.  Cannot have no-deal brexit and benefit from GATT 24, need some form of agreement with eu Need to have a credible intention to move to free trade agreement with eu to benefit from gatt 24 after Brexit There has been a "notable increase" in market expectations of no-deal Brexit in recent months Business uncertainty is as high as it was before March 29 Brexit deadline Brexit uncertainty is hurting UK's short-term economic performance Housing market has been affected by Brexit deadlines Markets are not saying no-deal is most likely Brexit scenario

Increased selling pressure around the Japanese safe haven is propelling EUR/JPY to fresh tops further north of 122.00 the figure on Wednesday. EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY moves above the 122.00 mark.The selling bias around JPY gathers traction.US Powell talked down rate cuts on Tuesday.Increased selling pressure around the Japanese safe haven is propelling EUR/JPY to fresh tops further north of 122.00 the figure on Wednesday.EUR/JPY looks to US yields, risk trendsThe cross is so far reversing Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ on the back of the re-emergence of the selling interest in the Japanese currency, in turn fuelled by a moderate rebound in yields of the US 10-year reference. The sentiment around the risk-associated space improved somewhat after Chief J.Powell removed tailwinds from the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the very near term at his speech on Tuesday. In addition, Powell reiterated that the case for lower rates gathered extra steam as of late, although the Committee should remain cautious before reacting to short-term issues, such as uncertainty stemming from US-China trade dispute and global slowdown. Earlier in the day, another down tick in the GfK’s Consumer Sentiment for Germany added to the ongoing selling bias around the European currency. Inflows and outflows to/from the Japanese safe haven remain the key barometer of markets' mood and emerges as the critical driver for the price action in the cross. In this context, any progress in the US-China protracted trade dispute at the G-20 event should boost the demand for riskier assets, rendering in a continuation of the up move to, initially the 123.00 handle and probably beyond. EUR/JPY relevant levelsAt the moment the cross is gaining 0.40% at 122.27 and faces the next hurdle at 122.46 (high Jun.25) followed by 123.17 (high Jun.11) and then 123.75 (high May 21). On the other hand, a breakdown of 120.95 (low Jun.21) would expose 120.78 (low Jun.3) and then 120.54 (monthly low Jan.17 2017).

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo crossed the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that the US seeks greater market access and removal of t

The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo crossed the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that the US seeks greater market access and removal of trade barriers with India. It is worth mentioning that Pompeo is on a three-day visit to India and will meet the country's Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday to discuss agenda for the US-India strategic partnership.
 

Rabobank analysts suggest that their impression is that the tone of the recently released Copom minutes cools down a bit the expectations of immediate

Rabobank analysts suggest that their impression is that the tone of the recently released Copom minutes cools down a bit the expectations of immediate rate cut (i.e. for the July meeting), but it does keep door open for policy easing at some point.Key Quotes“We also believe that the BCB once again strengthened the message that rate cuts will only be on the cards after “concrete progress” in the agenda of macro reforms, which we read as first-round approval of an effective pension reform at the House’s floor.” “We look for three rate cuts of 50bp from September onwards, taking the Selic rate to 5% by end-2019. Our scenario also projects BCB on hold all across 2020, if reforms pass as expected.”

According to Raoul Leering, head of international trade analysis at ING, failure to agree on the resumption of the negotiations during the G20 or fail

According to Raoul Leering, head of international trade analysis at ING, failure to agree on the resumption of the negotiations during the G20 or failure to come to a deal after a new round of negotiations will inflict extra economic pain which increases the willingness to make concessions and strike a deal on both sides.Key Quotes“Let’s not forget: both sides want a deal in the end. China can hurt the US economically but it knows that the US can hurt China even more. President Trump needs a deal to show the American people that he delivers on his promises to get better terms of trade for the US. He knows that this is best done without the US economy having to suffer from Chinese retaliation for an extended period of time. We expect a deal to be struck in the last quarter of this year.” “So it is likely that China as well as the US are prepared to make concessions in the end. After all, this is what's happened in the renegotiation of Nafta. To strike a deal, Trump had to accept that Mexico and Canada would not agree to all of his original demands.”  

The Irish PM Leo Varadkar was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, warning that the Irish economy could possibly contract in a no deal Brexit outco

The Irish PM Leo Varadkar was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, warning that the Irish economy could possibly contract in a no deal Brexit outcome. "In a no-deal hard Brexit - in which case we won't have to worry about the economy over-heating - it will slow down rapidly, even contract," said Varadkar. He added that he would publish an updated no-deal contingency plan next month setting out further actions to be taken between now and Oct. 31.

In its latest report, the US-based Fitch ratings highlighted that the US-China trade war escalation could knock 0.4pp off the world GDP by 2020. Addit

In its latest report, the US-based Fitch ratings highlighted that the US-China trade war escalation could knock 0.4pp off the world GDP by 2020. Additional Points: China's growth rate would be reduced by 0.6pp, and US growth by 0.4pp, in 2020. Global GDP growth would slow to 2.7% this year and 2.4% next year. Imposition of tariffs on all imports from China being considered by the US administration would mark a significant escalation of trade tensions. For China and the US, tariffs would feed to lower export volumes, higher import prices, with latter raising firms' costs, reducing real wages Export competitiveness in countries subject to tariffs would decline. Import substitution would offset some of growth shock in countries imposing import tariffs.

The USD/CHF pair extended its sideways consolidative price action on Wednesday and remained well within the previous session's broader trading range.

The USD builds on the overnight rebound and remains supported by the ongoing recovery in the US bond yields.Mnuchin’s positive trade-related comments lift global risk sentiment and undermine CHF’s safe-haven demand.Market participants now eye Wednesday’s release of US durable goods orders data for some trading impetus.The USD/CHF pair extended its sideways consolidative price action on Wednesday and remained well within the previous session's broader trading range.  A goodish US Dollar uptick, which got an additional boost from not so dovish remarks by St Louis Fed President James Bullard and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, helped the pair to stage a solid intraday rebound from sub-0.9700 level, or fresh yearly lows on Tuesday. The greenback built on its overnight steady recovery from multi-month lows and was further supported by a pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, which was eventually seen assisting the pair to hold with modest gains through the early European session on Wednesday. This coupled with the latest positive comments by the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, saying that the US-China trade deal is 90% complete, lifted the global risk sentiment, which undermined the Swiss Franc's safe-haven demand and remained supportive.  It, however, remains to be seen if the pair is able to capitalize on the recovery move or meets with some fresh supply as the focus now shifts to the US President Donald Trump's meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi on the sidelines of G20 summit later this week.  In the meantime, the US economic docket - featuring the release of durable goods orders data will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North-American session on Wednesday.Technical levels to watch 

While testifying before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee (TSC), the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Saunders said t

While testifying before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee (TSC), the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Saunders said that the UK economy is likely to do a little better than the BOE forecast in May if Brexit goes smoothly. Saunders added that the difference between BOE and market does not damage BOE’s credibility.

Timme Spakman, economist at ING, points out that world trade volume declined by 0.7% in April and the outlook for a rebound seems difficult given expo

Timme Spakman, economist at ING, points out that world trade volume declined by 0.7% in April and the outlook for a rebound seems difficult given export orders continued to slow further in May.Key Quotes“The trade war is really starting to bite and this can be clearly seen in global trade flows. Since the further escalation of the trade war, we have seen the biggest fall in world trade since 2009 during the last few months of 2018 - and trade volumes haven't recovered since.” “The month on month decline in April signifies the effects of the trade war as the decline is mostly concentrated in US and Chinese trade flows.” “The outlook for trade remains bleak as new export orders are slowly converging on the negative side of their historic means.” “We expect the trade war will get worse before any deals are closed.”

Following are the key comments from the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member and Deputy Governor, as he testifies before the U

Following are the key comments from the Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member and Deputy Governor, as he testifies before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee (TSC). Very often markets take a different view to central banks.

The Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is on the wires now, via Reuters, testifying on the on inflation and the economic outlook before the UK

The Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mark Carney is on the wires now, via Reuters, testifying on the on inflation and the economic outlook before the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee (TSC). Key Headlines: BOE forecasts do not include no-deal Brexit risk which is priced into market interest rate forecasts. Risk of no-deal Brexit has pushed down market path for interest rates.

With technical indicators on the daily chart just starting to gain positive momentum, bulls are likely to aim towards challenging near two-month-old d

The AUD/USD pair climbed to fresh two-week tops on Wednesday and already seems to have found acceptance above 50-day SMA for the first time since April. The mentioned hurdle coincided with 38.2% Fibo. level of the 0.7207-0.6831 recent downfall and might now be seen as a key pivotal point for short-term traders.With technical indicators on the daily chart just starting to gain positive momentum, bulls are likely to aim towards challenging near two-month-old descending trend-line resistance near the key 0.70 psychological mark. A sustained break through the said handle would signal a near-term bullish breakout and accelerate the upward trajectory towards monthly swing highs, around the 0.7020-25 region – also marking 50% Fibo. resistance level.  A follow-through buying should now set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move towards testing its next major barrier near the 0.7060-65 region or 61.8% Fibo. level en-route the 0.7100 round figure mark. On the flip side, the 0.6960-50 region now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some additional weakness further towards the 0.6900 handle with some intermediate support near the 0.6920 level (23.6% Fibo. level).AUD/USD daily chart 

More comments are crossing the wires from the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, with the key headlines found below. Hopeful we can seal the deal with Chi

More comments are crossing the wires from the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, with the key headlines found below.Hopeful we can seal the deal with China. Won’t speculate on timing of deal. US-China trade deal is 90% complete. Mnuchin’s positive comments on trade lift the risk sentiment across the board, sending the USD/JPY pair back towards 107.70 region while the Aussie looks to regain the 0.7000 level.

CNBC reports the latest statement out from the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, as he comments on the US sanctions on Iran. Mnuchin said that he believe

CNBC reports the latest statement out from the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, as he comments on the US sanctions on Iran. Mnuchin said that he believes that the economic sanctions on Iran are working. Meanwhile, both crude benchmarks consolidate the rally, with WTI holding firmly close to the 59 handle. USD/JPY remains sidelined below 107.50 level, awaiting fresh impetus from the key US Durable Goods Orders data.

The selling mood around the Sterling is helping EUR/GBP to advance to fresh weekly highs in the 0.8970/80. EUR/GBP looks to Carney, Brexit The Europea

EUR/GBP extends the upside to the 0.8970 region.BoE’s M.Carney speaks later in the morning.GBP under pressure as ‘no deal’ options stays on the table.The selling mood around the Sterling is helping EUR/GBP to advance to fresh weekly highs in the 0.8970/80.EUR/GBP looks to Carney, BrexitThe European cross is posting gains for the fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, always bolstered by the resumption of the leg lower in the British Pound. In the meantime, uncertainty around Brexit and the UK politics keep dictating the sentiment surrounding the Sterling. In this regard, candidates B.Johnson and J.Hunt have not ruled out a ‘no deal’ Brexit, although J.Hunt noted that he would not support a hard exit scenario if there was a ‘prospect of a better deal”. It is worth recalling that if the UK Parliament rejects leaving the EU without a deal it could open the door to a general election. Later in the session, BoE’s Inflation Report Hearings will be the main publication along with speeches by Governor Carney and MPCs Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Saunders. Earlier in the session, UK’s Gross Mortgage Approvals ticked lower to 42.4K, also missing initial estimates.What to look for around GBPRising uncertainty in the UK political scenario is expected to keep the bearish stance intact around the British Pound, while bouts of USD-selling remains the sole driver behind sporadic bullish attempts in Cable. In the UK economy, mixed-to-poor results from fundamentals continue to add to the sour prospects for the economy in the months to come. On another direction, the overall tone from the BoE appears to have shifted towards a more neutral (dovish?) gear, while uncertainty around Brexit is seen as the main obstacle in determining the next move on rates.EUR/GBP key levelsThe cross is gaining 0.14% at 0.8964 and a break above 0.8974 (monthly high Jun.17) would expose 0.9062 (low Jan.11) and finally 0.9092 (2019 high Jan.3). On the other hand, the next down barrier is located at 0.8872 (low Jun.20) followed by 0.8826 (low Jun.5) and then 0.8778 (200-day SMA).

The US-based ratings agency, Standard & Poors (S&P), in its latest review on the Italian economy, cut Italy’s GDP growth estimate for 2019 to 0.1% vs.

The US-based ratings agency, Standard & Poors (S&P), in its latest review on the Italian economy, cut Italy’s GDP growth estimate for 2019 to 0.1% vs. 0.7% previous. The Euro ignored the downward revision to the Italian growth forecast, with EUR/USD keeping its range near 1.1360 region amid higher Treasury yields and US dollar.

ANZ analysts note that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in a unanimous decision, but lowered its growth forecasts fo

ANZ analysts note that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% in a unanimous decision, but lowered its growth forecasts for both 2019 and 2020.Key Quotes“While the BoT acknowledged worries about growth and currency strength, it reiterated that financial stability risks remain a concern.” “Our baseline scenario is for the BoT to keep its policy rate on hold through 2019, but heightened growth uncertainties mean the balance of risks is tilted towards a cut.”

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that their base case remains that the Fed will cut by 25bp. Key Quotes “While the case for easing

Bill Diviney, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that their base case remains that the Fed will cut by 25bp.Key Quotes“While the case for easing is strong – inflation is muted and expectations are falling, and the downside risks to the outlook are elevated – current macro conditions in the US remain solid, on the whole, and therefore do not warrant an aggressive policy response. However, Chair Powell strongly hinted that a 50bp cut was on the table by seemingly endorsing academic research making the case for earlier, more aggressive policy moves when policy space is limited. As a result, we do see a risk that the Fed cuts by 50bp in a tactical move, to get the ‘most bang for buck’.” “Whether the Fed cuts 25bp or 50bp in July would therefore not alter our view of the total policy easing we expect from the Fed – 75bp by Q1 2020.” “Chair Powell made it clear last week that US-China trade negotiations were not the only factor driving Fed policy. We think that much of the damage from the trade war is done, in weaker confidence and elevated uncertainty, and that the Fed will ease regardless. What a G20 deal this weekend could do is lower the chance of a 50bp move in July, and potentially reduce the amount of total easing the Fed implements. However, we do not think a US-China deal would derail rate cuts altogether.”

In a telephonic interview with Reuters, Anantha Padmanabhan, Chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), said that India’s gol

In a telephonic interview with Reuters, Anantha Padmanabhan, Chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC), said that India’s gold demand could drop as much as 10% in 2019 and reach the lowest level in three years. Record high local gold prices are likely to dent domestic consumption. India’s is gold’s second-biggest consumer after China. Key Quotes: “Of late, customers are not used to such a jump in prices,” “They will not raise allocations to buy gold just because prices have risen. Volume-wise demand will drop 10% from last year.” The World Gold Council (WGC) in May forecast consumption this year at 750 to 850 tonnes after demand rose 5 percent in the March quarter. However, over the last week, the global prices have hit six-year highs on escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions.

The NZD/USD pair built on its post-RBNZ positive momentum and climbed further beyond mid-0.6600s to hit near three-week tops in the last hour. The pai

Dovish RBNZ outlook triggers some initial weakness during the Asian session.The downtick turns out to be short-lived as 25bps rate cut is already priced in.The intraday up-move seemed unaffected by a follow-through USD recovery.The NZD/USD pair built on its post-RBNZ positive momentum and climbed further beyond mid-0.6600s to hit near three-week tops in the last hour. The pair initially slipped to sub-0.6600 level in a knee jerk reaction to dovish forward guidance by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) - leaving doors open for an eventual rate cut, before moving back into positive territory for the eighth consecutive session. Given that a 25 bps rate cut is largely priced in, the downtick lacked any strong follow-through rather was quickly bought into. The pair witnessed a dramatic turnaround and extended the momentum through the early European session, shrugging off a follow-through US Dollar uptick. The greenback built on the overnight goodish bounce from multi-month lows - triggered by not so dovish comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and was further supported by recovering US Treasury bond yields, though did little to hinder the positive momentum. Moving ahead, market participants now look forward to the US economic docket - featuring the release of durable goods orders, for some meaningful impetus later during the early North-American session. The key focus, however, will remain on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of G20 summit later this week.Technical levels to watch 

United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Approvals fell from previous 42.989K to 42.384K in May

Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that they have recently adopted a more negative view on trade tensions and the impact the

Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that they have recently adopted a more negative view on trade tensions and the impact thereof on the global economy and as a result, they have lowered their growth forecasts for a wide range of advanced and emerging economies, while expecting a global easing cycle to cushion the blow.Key Quotes“We have also cut our growth forecasts for export-oriented emerging Asia, as the (re)escalation of the US-China trade/tech conflict has left its mark on regional supply chains (US-China trade has collapsed in recent months), on business confidence and on financial conditions, while external demand has softened.” “We cut our growth forecasts for China only modestly (for 2019 from 6.3% to 6.2% and for 2020 from 6.0% to 5.8%), as we expect more policy support to offset the larger drag from the trade conflict. That said, these revisions should be taken in the context of the relative stability of the official growth figures, whereas we expect more weakness in trade and manufacturing.” “For the majority of the other EM Asian countries, we cut our 2019-20 growth forecasts by around 0.5 ppt. As a result, we now expect regional growth to slow from 6.1% in 2018 to 5.7% (down from 5.9%) in 2019 and to 5.5% (down from 5.8%) in 2020.”

The USD/CAD continued with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and remained well within the striking distance of multi-month lows, just a

The USD builds on the overnight bounce but fails to inspire bulls.Rallying Oil prices underpin Loonie and continue to exert pressure.Traders now eye US durable goods orders data for a fresh impetus.The USD/CAD continued with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and remained well within the striking distance of multi-month lows, just above mid-1.3100s. Despite the ongoing US Dollar recovery, the pair failed to attract any buying interest and remained on the defensive for the third consecutive session - also marking its sixth day of negative move in the previous seven. It is worth reporting that the greenback on Tuesday staged a goodish rebound from multi-month lows in reaction to not so dovish comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A strong follow-through rally in Crude Oil prices continued underpinning demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and turned out to be one of the key factors that kept exerting some downward pressure on the major. Oil prices have been squeezing higher amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and got an additional boost after the latest API reported a fall in US crude inventories by 7.5 million barrels during the week ended June 21. The Canadian Dollar was further supported by the overnight release of better-than-expected wholesale sales figures, with recorded a growth of 1.7% on a monthly basis in April as compared to 1.4% rise in the previous month. Meanwhile, bearish traders are likely to wait for a sustained break through mid-1.3100s (multi-month lows) before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move ahead of Wednesday's US macro data. The US economic docket features the important release of durable goods order data, which coupled with Oil price dynamics will be looked upon for some meaningful trading impetus later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

Rabobank analysts are expecting the Banxico to leave the policy rate unchanged at 8.25% on Thursday, June 27th. Key Quotes “All of the 19 analysts sur

Rabobank analysts are expecting the Banxico to leave the policy rate unchanged at 8.25% on Thursday, June 27th.Key Quotes“All of the 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a no-change decision. At the last meeting, Banxico highlighted the exchange rate, the Fed, economic slack and the Budget as key.” “The underlying economic backdrop in Mexico has developed in line with our expectations and our view on Banxico policy is broadly unchanged - we still expect an easing cycle to begin in Q4 of this year.” “That said, we now expect a 25bp ‘insurance cut’ from the Fed in July (as well as the 125bp we were already expecting in July) and the odds of an earlier move from Banxico have risen.” “Furthermore, if it becomes clear that the Fed is going to follow up with further cuts then we may need to add a ‘follow-the-Fed’ element to our projected Banxico policy rate path but this is not yet our base case.” “We expect USD/MXN to primarily trade a 19.10 to 19.40 range in the next 1-3 months.”

Austria Purchasing Manager Index down to 47.5 in June from previous 48.3

Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations dipped from previous -14.3 to -30 in June

Italy Public Deficit/GDP above forecasts (3.1%) in 1Q: Actual (4.1%)

Gold hovers near the lower end of its daily trading range, albeit has still managed to hold its neck above the key $1400 psychological mark. The preci

Not so dovish comments by Fed officials prompt some long-unwinding trade.Recovering US bond yields underpin the USD demand and added to weakness.Geopolitical tensions might help limit the downside ahead of Trump-Xi meeting.Gold hovers near the lower end of its daily trading range, albeit has still managed to hold its neck above the key $1400 psychological mark. The precious metal came under some intense selling pressure on Wednesday and extended the previous session's sharp intraday pullback from multi-year tops, triggered by not so dovish comments by the Fed officials. St Louis Fed President James Bullard - considered as the most dovish FOMC member, dismissed a 50bps rate cut, while the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that it is important not to overreact to short-term swing in sentiment. Against the backdrop of the recent upsurge and extreme overbought conditions on the daily chart, the comments prompted some long-unwinding trade and exerted some heavy pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal. The downward spiral extended through the early European session on Wednesday and was further pressurized by the ongoing recovery in the US Dollar, which tends to undermine demand for the dollar-denominated commodity. The commodity has now snapped seven consecutive days of winning streak, though the prevalent cautions mood extended some support to the precious metal's safe-haven status and helped limit deeper losses, at least for the time being. Investors might now be reluctant to place any aggressive bets amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ahead of the crucial Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit to discuss trade-related issues later this week.  In the meantime, Wednesday's US economic docket - featuring the release of durable goods orders data will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North-American session.Technical levels to watch 

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.1372 Today Daily Change 22 Today Daily Change % 0.04 Today daily open 1.1368 Trends Daily SMA2

The pair is now struggling for direction after finding quite decent support in the 1.1350 region.Immediately to the upside emerges monthly tops just above 1.1400 the figure ahead of the more relevant area near 1.1450, or March tops.This important hurdle is considered the last defence for a visit of 2019 highs in the 1.1550/70 band.Of note, however, is the bearish ‘outside day’ charted yesterday, which could be a prologue for a move lower in the next days.EUR/USD daily chart  

According to Georgette Boele, analyst at ABN AMRO, the prospect of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Fed has weighed on the US dollar in a risk

According to Georgette Boele, analyst at ABN AMRO, the prospect of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Fed has weighed on the US dollar in a risk-on environment and lower US rates and a lower US dollar have boosted gold prices.Key Quotes“Our year-end target of USD 1,400 per ounce has been breached and prices have even rallied to USD 1,430 per ounce.” “What do we expect going forward? In the near-term, the possibility of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in July will continue to support gold prices. In addition, the price momentum is strongly positive, as is the technical gold price outlook. Dovish central banks are likely here to stay, and this is a major support.” “Gold is not paying interest, so if interest rates elsewhere (such as in the US) decline, this will increase the relative attractiveness of gold as an investment asset. However, our US economist expects the Fed to cut by only 25bp rate at the meeting in July. If Fed speakers sound less dovish or if the Fed doesn’t deliver a 50bp rate cut, gold prices could drop considerably, because speculators hold extreme net-long positions in gold.” “Even though the trend in the US dollar index has turned negative after breaking below the 200-day moving average, we do not expect a weak dollar across the board. A deterioration in investor sentiment will favour the dollar versus gold. We keep our year-end forecast for gold prices at USD 1,400 per ounce, which suggests gold prices are currently overshooting.”

More comments are hitting the wires from the Japanese PM Abe, as he now speaks about the ongoing US-China trade war. Abe said he expects China and the

More comments are hitting the wires from the Japanese PM Abe, as he now speaks about the ongoing US-China trade war. Abe said he expects China and the US to resolve trade friction through constructive dialogue. This comes ahead of the meeting between both the US and Chinese leaders due on the sidelines of the G20 meeting on Saturday.

The Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings, due at 0915 GMT, will hog the limelight amid a data-sparse EU calendar this Wednesday. Among the

 The Bank of England (BOE) inflation report hearings, due at 0915 GMT, will hog the limelight amid a data-sparse EU calendar this Wednesday. Among the testimonies by the BOE policymakers, Governor Mark Carney’s testimony will be closely heard, in the face of the recent dovish tilt. Note that the hearings will be on the May inflation report. Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) noted: “Given the age of the report (it was issued nearly 2 months ago, and the session was delayed on account of Parliamentary drama), the officials are likely to focus more on recent developments. In particular, this could give Saunders (and perhaps others) a chance to explain his hawkish comments ahead of the somewhat cautious MPC meeting only days later.” “The BoE's job seems pretty simple right now compared to what is has previously. Given the growing uncertainty both domestically and abroad, there seems little reason to be adjusting rates in the foreseeable future, something markets are on board with. One point of interest may be the suggestion last week that the markets were incorrectly pricing the prospect of rate hikes, which given that they're gradually pricing in a cut over the next year or so, hasn't changed. Carney may try to reinforce this message today, although it may fall on deaf ears again,” Craig Erlam, Market Analyst at MarketPulse explains. How could affect GBP/USD? According to FXStreet’s Senior Analyst, Yohay Elam, “the Technical Confluences Indicator shows that cable enjoys support at 1.2667 where we see the convergence of the previous hourly low, the Bollinger Band 15min-Lower, and the BB 1d-Middle. Further support awaits at 1.2602 where we note the confluence of the Pivot Point one-day Support 2 and the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week. The next cushion is at 1.2564 where the previous monthly low meets the BB 1d-Lower.” “Resistance awaits at 1.2707 where we see a dense cluster of lines including the SMA 5-4h, the SMA 200-4h, the SMA 5-1d, and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month. The next cap is 1.2800 which is where the Fibonacci 38.2% one-month, the BB 1d-Upper and the previous daily high,” Yohay adds. Key Notes GBP/USD forecast: Turns bearish again ahead of Carney’s speech, US macro data GBP Futures: further downside not ruled out UK Aid Minister Stewart: ‘I am supporting Jeremy hunt for Conservative party leader’ About the BOE Inflation Report Hearings The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue & Customs, and associated public bodies, including the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority.  

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview Today last price 96.24 Today Daily Change 16 Today Daily Change % 0.06 Today daily open 96.18 Trends Daily

DXY has regained some buying interest after bottoming out in the 95.80 region, coincident with late February lows. Further south emerges the next support ay 95.74, or March low.The ongoing recovery should ideally retake the 96.60 region, where sit the critical 200-day SMA and the multi-month resistance line.If/when this area is cleared, the immediate target will be monthly peaks in the 97.75/80 band.DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 122.08 Today Daily Change 39 Today Daily Change % 0.21 Today daily open 121.83 Trends Daily SMA2

The cross is showing some recovery after finding support in the 10-day SMA near 121.70.Friday’s bullish ‘outside day’ sparked a correction higher to the 122.50 region, losing some momentum afterwards on renewed EUR-weakness.Ideally, EUR/JPY needs to clear the short-term resistance line at 122.16 in order to alleviate the current downside pressure and attempt a test of the 123.00 handle and beyond.EUR/JPY daily chart  

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair continues to struggle at the 1.2763/72 resistance (the 7th June high and February low)

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair continues to struggle at the 1.2763/72 resistance (the 7th June high and February low) and has in fact charted a key day reversal.Key Quotes“For caution we will exit our longs here. The market will have to overcome this on a closing basis in order to generate some further upside interest. This will target the 200 day ma at 1.2923, but we are looking for this to then cap the topside.” “Meanwhile we would allow for a possible near term pull back towards the 1.2667/00 region ahead of another leg higher (previous downtrend should now act as support). Failure here will see the 1.2559/1.2506 recent lows retested.” “Below 1.2506 would target the 1.2444 December 2018 low. This is the last defence for 1.2108, the 78.6% retracement of the move up from 2016.”

Reuters reports the latest comments by the Japanese PM Abe, as he expresses his take on the economy. Abe noted that he won't hesitate to take flexible

Reuters reports the latest comments by the Japanese PM Abe, as he expresses his take on the economy. Abe noted that he won't hesitate to take flexible steps to respond to downside risks to the economy. His comments have virtually no impact on the Yen, with USD/JPY hove4ring near 107.45 region. Extra Reading: Japan Govt Sources: Japan’s FY 2018/19 tax revenue revised up to record high of JPY 60.4T - Reuters JPY Futures: scope for extra losses

The AUD/USD pair caught some fresh bids on Wednesday and jumped to two-week tops, around the 0.6980 region in the last hour. After yesterday's good tw

The pair regains traction despite a follow-through USD recovery on Wednesday.Further gains are likely to remain limited ahead of Trump-Xi meeting this week.Wednesday’s release of US durable goods orders eyed for some short-term impetus.The AUD/USD pair caught some fresh bids on Wednesday and jumped to two-week tops, around the 0.6980 region in the last hour. After yesterday's good two-way price moves and an early tick lower to mid-0.6900s, the pair managed to regain positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday and seemed rather unaffected by a follow-through uptick in the US Dollar. It is worth recalling that the greenback staged a goodish bounce on Tuesday in reaction to not so dovish comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard, dismissing a 50bps rate cut, and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying that it is important not to overreact to any individual data point. Meanwhile, the positive momentum seemed to lack any obvious fundamental catalyst and hence, runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly as traders are more likely to refrain from placing any aggressive bets ahead of the crucial G20 meeting later this week.  The US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to meet on the sidelines of the summit to discuss trade-related issues, which might play an important role in determining the next leg of a directional move for the China-proxy Australian Dollar. It would now be interesting to see if the pair is able to capitalize on the move or loses traction at higher levels as traders now look forward to Wednesday's US economic docket - featuring the release of durable goods orders data, due later during the early North-American session for some short-term impetus. Technical levels to watch 

S. Korean President Moon: North Korea, US in behind the scenes talks over third Summit

S. Korean President Moon: North Korea, US in behind the scenes talks over third Summit

Iranian Atomic Energy Organization Spokesman was quoted by Reuters last minutes, as saying that Iran will speed up enriching of uranium after deadline

Iranian Atomic Energy Organization Spokesman was quoted by Reuters last minutes, as saying that Iran will speed up enriching of uranium after deadline given to the European countries ends tomorrow.

Reuters reports the recent comments delivered by the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison during his speech in Sydney earlier today. Key Quotes: “

Reuters reports the recent comments delivered by the Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison during his speech in Sydney earlier today. Key Quotes: “China should reform its economy to end a trade war with the United States that is damaging the global economy.”  “Forced technology transfer is not fair. Intellectual property theft cannot be justified, regardless of where it started.”  “Industrial subsidies under the model do promote overproduction. China’s rise has now reached what I would describe a threshold level of economic maturity.”

France Consumer Confidence above forecasts (100) in June: Actual (101)

ANZ analysts point out that at 0.2% y/y Malaysia’s headline CPI inflation remained unchanged in May from the previous month. Key Quotes “The festive s

ANZ analysts point out that at 0.2% y/y Malaysia’s headline CPI inflation remained unchanged in May from the previous month.Key Quotes“The festive season likely explains the increase in food prices. Higher prices in the food and ‘housing and utilities’ components accounted for most of the sequential increase in May.” “Meanwhile, the trend in core inflation remains benign, and with slower growth momentum we expect this trend to continue.” “Recent comments from the Prime Minister suggest that the implementation of targeted fuel subsidies could be delayed beyond 1 July. This would limit any upside risks from higher-than-expected fuel prices.”

Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the EUR/USD pair faced a reality check of Fed pricing yesterday when the Fed’s Bull

Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the EUR/USD pair faced a reality check of Fed pricing yesterday when the Fed’s Bullard argued that a 50bp rate cut would be overdone and Powell failed to commit to easing.Key Quotes“Comments from the two sent EUR/USD temporarily lower as USD rates shot higher. There is still some time to go before the 31 July FOMC meeting and more data and speeches to come, which means the market will likely continue to be in a limbo over whether to price a 50bp cut or not at the July meeting.” “In turn, EUR/USD should stay range-bound close to 1.14 near term before eventually rising to 1.15 in 3M as the Fed starts easing. Notably, there is still room for further reversal of short EUR/USD positions. Technically, the market will keep an eye on the 1.1448 top from 20 March.”

The USD/JPY pair gained some positive traction on Wednesday and built on the overnight late rebound from sub-107.00 level - the lowest level since ear

Not so dovish comments by Fed officials prompt some USD short-covering.Bulls shrug off cautions mood, rather take cues from positive US bond yields.Traders now eye Wednesday’s US durable goods orders data for fresh impetus.The USD/JPY pair gained some positive traction on Wednesday and built on the overnight late rebound from sub-107.00 level - the lowest level since early-January swing lows. After a rather muted reaction to the disappointing release of the US economic data - new home sales figures and consumer confidence index, the pair managed to attract some buying in reaction to not so dovish comments by St Louis Fed President James Bullard.  The most dovish Fed official dismissed a 50bps rate cut, while the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that it is important not to overreact to any individual data point. The remarks prompted some US Dollar short-covering move and helped the pair to stage a modest recovery from oversold conditions. The momentum extended through the Asian session on Wednesday and seemed largely unaffected by a weaker trading sentiment around equity markets, which tends to underpin the Japanese Yen's safe-haven demand, rather took cues from a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields. Despite the supporting factors, the pair seemed to lack any strong follow-through beyond mid-107.00s or weekly tops. Market participants now look forward to the release of US monthly durable goods orders data, due later during the early North-American session, for some meaningful impetus. In the meantime, the USD price dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment seem more likely to play an important role in influencing the pair's momentum and producing some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch 

The upside momentum around the European currency has subsided somewhat in past sessions, prompting EUR/USD to recede to the mid-1.1300s, where emerge

EUR/USD comes under pressure near the 200-day SMA.Trade concerns, geopolitical jitters remain on the table.Focus stay on yields; Fed, ECB easing.The upside momentum around the European currency has subsided somewhat in past sessions, prompting EUR/USD to recede to the mid-1.1300s, where emerge the 200-day/week SMAs.EUR/USD meets support around 1.1350The pair is down for the second session in a row on Wednesday following yesterday’s bearish ‘outside day’, although meeting decent contention in the 1.1350 region for the time being. The pick up in the demand for the greenback, the resurgence of trade concerns and USD-supportive yields spreads have been supporting the improved mood in the buck and drove spot lower. In addition, Chief Powell sounded not as dovish as USD-bears expected on Tuesday, also adding to the Dollar’s recovery. In the same direction, FOMC’s Bullard poured cold water over the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut at the July meeting, favouring a smaller move. There are no data releases scheduled in the euro area today, whereas advanced Trade Balance figures, Durable Goods Orders and the weekly EIA report are all due across the pond.What to look for around EURThe renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is retreating 0.04% at 1.1361 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1344 (low Jun.25) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18). On the flip side, a break above 1.1412 (high Jun.25) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

Reuters quotes the Japanese government sources, as saying that Japan’s FY 2018/19 tax revenue is revised up to record high of JPY 60.4 trillion. Nothi

Reuters quotes the Japanese government sources, as saying that Japan’s FY 2018/19 tax revenue is revised up to record high of JPY 60.4 trillion.   Nothing further is reported on the same. The above headline is unlikely to stop the Abe government to go ahead with its planned October sales tax hike. The Japanese Yen appears to have picked up fresh bids, sending the USD/JPY pair a touch lower to 107.35 levels.

Open interest in JPY futures markets rose by more than 700 contracts on Tuesday, reaching the second build in a row according to flash data from CME G

Open interest in JPY futures markets rose by more than 700 contracts on Tuesday, reaching the second build in a row according to flash data from CME Group. In the same direction, volume went uo by around 74K contracts following two consecutive pullbacks.USD/JPY could extend the bounce to 108.00 and aboveUSD/JPY bounced off 5-month lows on Tuesday amidst rising open interest and volume in the Japanese currency. That said, further upside in spot is expected in the short-term horizon with the next target at the 10-day SMA at 107.84.

Rory Stewart, the UK Secretary of State for International Development, said that "I think it's pretty clear that I'm not a supporter of Boris, so I'm

Rory Stewart, the UK Secretary of State for International Development, said that "I think it's pretty clear that I'm not a supporter of Boris, so I'm supporting Jeremy Hunt," the Sun reports. The Cable keeps the offered tone intact near 1.2675 region following the above comments.

Analysts at TD Securities, points out that the BoE's Carney, Cunliffe, Tenreyro, and Saunders appear before Parliament's Treasury Select Committee at

Analysts at TD Securities, points out that the BoE's Carney, Cunliffe, Tenreyro, and Saunders appear before Parliament's Treasury Select Committee at 10:15am BST.Key Quotes“Given the age of the report (it was issued nearly 2 months ago, and the session was delayed on account of Parliamentary drama), the officials are likely to focus more on recent developments. In particular, this could give Saunders (and perhaps others) a chance to explain his hawkish comments ahead of the somewhat cautious MPC meeting only days later.”

Denmark Retail Sales (YoY): -0.7% (May) vs previous 3.2%

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey below forecasts (10) in July: Actual (9.8)

Norway Labour Force Survey came in at 3.2% below forecasts (3.5%) in April

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by nearly 1.5K cont

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets noted open interest shrunk for the second session in a row on Tuesday, this time by nearly 1.5K contracts. On the other hand, volume reversed three consecutive drops and gained around 26.2K contracts.GBP/USD remains well supported near 1.2500Cable continues to grind lower so far this week. Yesterday’s negative price action was in tandem with shrinking open interest, which should remove some tailwinds from the le leg lower. Higher volume, by contrast, keeps favouring a test of lower levels.

FX option expiries for June 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1215 801m 1.1220 819m 1.1230 598m

FX option expiries for June 26 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1215 801m 1.1220 819m  1.1230 598m  1.1235 593m  1.1285 592m  1.1300 1.8bn  1.1375 2.0bn  1.1385 913m  1.1390 810m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2645 201m 1.2660 281m  1.2788 203m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 106.00 813m 106.45 508m  106.75 430m  107.00 2.0bn  107.30 1.2bn  107.50 1.2bn  107.70 613m  108.00 1.8bn  108.10 610m  108.25 490m  108.40 352m  108.50 1.4bn - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6910 975m 0.6930 607m  0.6950 951m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6610 430m 

GBP/USD portrays the aftermath of declines based on Monday's Doji candle while taking the rounds to 1.2670, near 21-DMA, on early Wednesday.

Declines following Doji drags the GBP/USD pair to 21-DMA.Upside capped by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, June 18 top may question sellers during the plunge.GBP/USD portrays the aftermath of declines based on Monday's Doji candle while taking the rounds to 1.2670, near 21-DMA, while heading into the UK open on Wednesday. Should sellers refrain from respecting the near-term MA, June 18 high near 1.2566 may act as an intermediate halt during the plunge towards the month’s bottom around 1.2506. While 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is more likely to limit the pair’s declines past-1.2506, failure to do so highlights December 2018 low of 1.2480 and the year-to-date trough close to 1.2438 may lure the bears. On the contrary, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of January to March 2019 upside, at 1.2800, is likely a strong resistance for buyers to conquer in order to aim for April month low near 1.2865. If bulls dominate past-1.2865, 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2909 and 200-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2923 could flash on their radars. GBP/USD daily chartTrend: Pullback expecte  

According to preliminary figures from CME Group for EUR futures markets, investors added nearly 800 contracts to their open interest positions, reachi

According to preliminary figures from CME Group for EUR futures markets, investors added nearly 800 contracts to their open interest positions, reaching the fourth consecutive build. In the same line, volume went up by almost 58K contracts, reversing two consecutive drops.EUR/USD now flirts with the 200-day/week SMAsEURUSD came under renewed downside pressure in past hours on the back of an improved mood around the buck and is now hovering around the mid-1.1300s, where coincide the key 200-day/week SMAs. Tuesday’s down move was accompanied by rising open interest and volume, opening the door for extra losses in the near term.

The Japanese Asahi newspaper offers key insights from a draft of the G20 document (joint-communique) prepared by Japan, the chair of the meetings. Mai

The Japanese Asahi newspaper offers key insights from a draft of the G20 document (joint-communique) prepared by Japan, the chair of the meetings. Main Points: Leaders of the G20 top economies will call this week for the promotion of free trade to achieve strong global growth, as the United States and China seek to resume talks to resolve their bitter trade dispute. Seeks common ground between the United States, which opposes language denouncing protectionism, and other nations, which want a stronger warning against the risk of trade tension. G20 nations will highlight the promotion of free trade and technological innovation as two of the key drivers of the global economy. It also stresses the importance for nations of the grouping to create a positive cycle so that the benefits of solid growth are distributed broadly.

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD’s rally has reached the 1.1416 55 week moving average and has charted a key day reversal. K

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD’s rally has reached the 1.1416 55 week moving average and has charted a key day reversal.Key Quotes“We note the 13 count on the 60 minute chart and we would allow for a small near term retracement into the 1.1360/25 band ahead of further gains. Above 1.1416 we look for a test of the 1.1570 2019 high. Beyond this we target 1.1815/54 (highs from June and September 2018). Initial support lies at 1.1348 the 7th June high ahead of 1.1176 the 7th March high.” “We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and we target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge).”

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the rebound from recent lows further north of the key barrier at 96.00. US Dollar I

DXY adds to Tuesday’s gains beyond 96.00 the figure.Yields of the US 10-year note rebound from 1.99%.US Durable Goods Orders, Trade Balance figures next on tap.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), is extending the rebound from recent lows further north of the key barrier at 96.00.US Dollar Index looks to data, yieldsThe index has managed to regain some shine following a less-dovish-than-expected comments from Chief J.Powell on Tuesday. In fact, Powell poured cold water over a potential rate cut (insurance cut?) in the near term, although he reiterated that the case for lower rates has strengthened in light of the trade uncertainty and global slowdown. He also ruled out that a rate cut was guaranteed, emphasizing the data-dependency from the Fed instead of reacting to short-term (temporary?) situations. Somewhat reinforcing this view, St. Louis Fed J.Bullard (voter, dovish) talked down the probability of a 50 bps rate cut and instead advocated for a 25 bps cut. The recovery in the buck comes in tandem with the rebound in yields of the US 10-year note on the back of easing US-China trade concerns, particularly in light of the potential Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 event in Japan on June 28-29. Higher yields have also widened the spread vs. another G-10 peers, adding to the improved mood around the buck. Today’s US docket brings in advanced Trade Balance figures, Durable Goods Orders, the EIA weekly report on US crude oil inventories and the speech by San Francisco Fed M.Daly (2021 voter, centrist) at the Forecasters Club of New York.What to look for around USDSpeculations of a rate cut as early as the next meeting have lost traction in past hours after Fed’s Powell remove some tailwinds from that idea, although the case for lower rates in the near/medium term remains in place for the time being. The Fed is expected to keep the data-dependent stance intact while it continues to scrutinize the US-China trade situation and weakness overseas.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.12% at 96.29 and faces the next hurdle at 96.58 (200-day SMA) seconded by 97.36 (55-day SMA) and finally 97.77 (high Jun.18). On the other hand, a breach of 95.82 (low Feb.28) would open the door to 95.74 (low Mar.20) and then 95.16 (low Jan.31).

Danske Bank analysts point out that today we will get a first glimpse of how German consumer sentiment has started into Q3 on an otherwise quiet day o

Danske Bank analysts point out that today we will get a first glimpse of how German consumer sentiment has started into Q3 on an otherwise quiet day on the European data front ahead of tomorrow's and Friday's inflation figures.Key Quotes“A range of Bank of England MPC members, including Governor Carney, will testify before the UK Parliament Treasury Committee.” “The EIA will publish its weekly oil inventories report today. The market will likely be on the lookout for at large drop in crude stocks after API yesterday reported a 7.6mb drop in crude stocks last week.” “In the US, it will be interesting to see whether core capex orders for May show the same signs of weakness as PMIs as of late.”

Further headlines crossed the wires from the North Korean Foreign Ministry this Wednesday, citing that it won't surrender to US-led sanctions and accu

Further headlines crossed the wires from the  North Korean Foreign Ministry this Wednesday, citing that it won't surrender to US-led sanctions and accused Washington of trying to "bring us to our knees," the Associated Press reports. The North's Foreign Ministry said it "will not hesitate to pull a muscle-flexing trigger in order to defend ourselves" if anyone dares to trample over its sovereignty. Earlier today, the North stated that the US extension of sanctions is an extreme act of hostility. USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 107.50 resistance amid negative Asian equities and broad USD recovery. 

Although latest rhetoric from the Fed has mostly triggered the Euro’s (EUR) profit-booking, the regional currency manages to rise against the GBP.

Fears of no-deal Brexit, absence of major catalysts weaken the British Pound (GBP) ahead of the key UK event.Fewer data/events from Eurozone highlight the Fed speeches, global political plays as directives.Although latest rhetoric from the Fed has mostly triggered the Euro’s (EUR) profit-booking, the regional currency manages to benefit from the GBP weakness as the EUR/GBP pair takes the rounds to 0.8960 heading into Europe open on Wednesday. With the US Federal Reserve policymakers scaling back their previous bearish threats, the EUR repeated its tendency to lose while the US Dollar (USD) rises. Though, threats of hard Brexit from the frontrunner of the UK Prime Minister’s post Boris Johnson and disappointing British CBI Retail Sales survey results continue making the region currency a gainer versus its UK counterpart. Moving on, except Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index, there aren’t any major data/events scheduled for publishing from the Eurozone while quarterly testimony on the inflation report by the Bank of England (BOE) officials will be the crucial event from the UK. German consumer sentiment gauge is expected to remain modestly flat with 10.1 mark versus 10.0 prior. On the contrary, BOE officials might emphasize more on the recent bearish rhetoric from major central banks and challenges to the Brexit in spite of focusing more on the 2-month old inflation report. Technical Analysis June 18 high around 0.8976 holds the door for the pair’s run-up to 0.9000 round-figure whereas 0.9065, 0.9100 and the year to date top surrounding 0.9120 can please buyers afterward. During the pullback, 0.8930 and 21-day simple moving average (21-day SMA) around 0.8885 will entertain the counter-trend traders ahead of challenging them by 0.8840 and 200-day SMA level of 0.8783

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting no change in policy from the Bank of Thailand after it kept policy unchanged at 1.75% at its 8 May meeting and

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting no change in policy from the Bank of Thailand after it kept policy unchanged at 1.75% at its 8 May meeting and hiking in December 2018 for the first time in more than 7 years.Key Quotes“Inflation is likely to be near the lower end of its target range over the coming months but BoT is unlikely to quickly follow other central banks in the region by cutting rates, given the high level of household and corporate indebtedness. We think prospects of easing will grow in the months ahead, however.”

ANZ analysts note that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell advised that the Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures and won’t be infl

ANZ analysts note that the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell advised that the Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures and won’t be influenced by pressure from Trump who is pushing for rate cuts to counter the impacts of tariffs increases.Key Quotes“Powell stated the amount of tariffs currently in place are not large enough to [directly] have an economic impact, but the uncertainty they bring is impacting the confidence of financial and agricultural markets. In the opinions gathered in the latest round of the Beige Book, ‘trade concerns’ were mentioned twice as often as in the previous round.”

The recent enthusiasm seen around the Asian equity markets was shot down by the latest less dovish rhetoric from the Fed officials that scaled back ag

The recent enthusiasm seen around the Asian equity markets was shot down by the latest less dovish rhetoric from the Fed officials that scaled back aggressive rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, investors turned cautious heading into the G20 Summit, commencing this Friday. Therefore, the USD/JPY pair struggled to take on the recovery beyond the 107.50 figure, despite a broadly firmer US dollar and rallying Treasury yields. The Aussie consolidated its recovery below 0.6970 region while the Kiwi failed to chew the offers at two-week tops of 0.6662 following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) rates on hold decision, as the Kiwi central bank left doors open for an August rate cut. Both the Euro and GBP suffered moderate losses amid a pick up in the USD buying across the board while the Canadian dollar failed to benefit from the oil-price rally. Meanwhile, gold prices on Comex extended its correction and headed back towards 1410 levels.Main Topics in AsiaIMF: RBNZ's current monetary policy stance fits subdued inflation conditions Richmond Fed President Barkin: Don’t know whether rate cut or cuts will be needed this year Fed's Bullard: Thinks 2 rate cuts by year end would provide a soft landing Chinese Embassy confirmed that China has halted Canadian meat imports Trade wars: Chinese exporters warn that their business is growing at its slowest pace in three years Japan to hold upper house election on July 21 BOJ maintains JGB buying, JPY drops further China’s Beige Book: Modest improvement in China’s economy in Q2 Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeps rates on hold at 1.50%, NZD drops and pops N. Korea: The US extension of sanctions is an extreme act of hostility - KCNA Asian stocks dip as Fed pushes back on aggressive rate cut views Sources: Philadelphia Energy Solutions said to seek the closure of its 335K bpd refinery following a fire – Reuters WTI: Buyers await fresh clues to cross the key MA resistance RBNZ’s Bascand: Renewing the RBNZ's approach to financial stabilityKey Focus AheadAmid a data-light EUR macro calendar this Wednesday, the Bank of England (BOE) hearings before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee (TSC) will be closely eyed. Carney and company will testify on May inflation report at 0915 GMT, keeping in mind the June economic forecasts. However, no fresh surprises on the monetary policy is expected after the central bank tilted to a dovish bias at this month’s monetary policy decision. On the macro events front, the ECB non-monetary policy meeting is scheduled at 0700 GMT. Ahead of that, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey will be published at 0600 GMT. Meanwhile, the Swiss ZEW Survey and UK BBA Mortgage Approvals data will drop in at 0800 GMT and 0830 GMT respectively. The NA session, in contrast, reports the key US Durable Goods Orders and Goods Trade Balance figures at 1230 GMT among other minority reports. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly crude stockpiles data, due at 1430 GMT, will also grab some attention. Besides, the speech by the FOMC member Daly will be eyed for fresh insights on the US interest rates outlook.   EUR/USD: Bearish outside day as Fed tempers aggressive rate cut expectations Tuesday’s bearish outside day makes today’s close pivotal. Fed officials pushed back on aggressive rate cut calls, pushing the USD higher. An above-forecast US durable goods data could yield a bearish daily close.  GBP/USD offers fewer moves ahead of Carney’s speech Having reversed from the 50-day SMA, mainly because of renewed Brexit fears and sluggish data from the UK’s CB retail sales survey, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2685 ahead of the London open. Gold Hit Its Price Target. Now What? “Gold is trading at highs not seen since 2013. Will the rally continue?  First, let’s talk about how we got here …” US Durable Goods Orders Preview: Recovery but where is the trend? Durable goods orders are predicted to gain 0.2% in May after falling 2.1% in April. Orders ex-transport are expected to increase 0.1% after a flat April. Orders outside of government defense procurement are expected to rise 1.4% following the April 2.5% decline.     

Analysts at TD Securities note that the US new home sales surprised to the downside in May, dropping a large 7.8% m/m, following an upward-revised 3.7

Analysts at TD Securities note that the US new home sales surprised to the downside in May, dropping a large 7.8% m/m, following an upward-revised 3.7% contraction in April.Key Quotes“This drop brings the headline back to January levels (keep in mind this series is very volatile).” “Similarly, consumer confidence declined more than expected to 121.5 in June, with the drop being widespread as both the present situation and expectations components declined vs May. Despite this drop, consumer confidence remains at very solid levels, which should support private consumption in the near term (recall consumption is tracking close to 3% in Q2).”

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the OCR unchanged at 1.5% at its June OCR Review and st

Dominick Stephens, chief economist at Westpac, notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the OCR unchanged at 1.5% at its June OCR Review and strongly hinted that it could reduce the OCR to 1.25%.Key Quotes“It said that a lower OCR “may be needed” or “was likely” in different parts of the document.” “This was very blunt language, and is a strong signal for a cut in the future.” “The RBNZ remains mainly focussed on the global economy, and particularly the trend towards lower interest rates at overseas central banks. It is more ambivalent about the domestic economy.” “We remain happy to forecast an OCR cut at the August MPS meeting.”

Singapore Industrial Production (YoY) registered at -2.4% above expectations (-3.5%) in May

Singapore Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.7%, above forecasts (-1.3%) in May

Gold is on a run towards near-term horizontal-resistance following its U-turn from the 100-hour moving average (HMA) ticks it up to $1407.80.

Oversold RSI, 100-HMA pull the Gold prices back towards immediate horizontal resistance.$1382 and 200-HMA should gain market attention during the fresh downpour.Gold is on a run towards near-term horizontal-resistance following its U-turn from the 100-hour moving average (HMA) ticks it up to $1407.80 ahead of the European open on Wednesday. While multiple extremes marked during last two-days highlight $1421 as the key resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the bullion’s rise since June 17, at $1413.56, may serve as the closest upside barrier. During the precious-metal’s extended recovery beyond $1421, latest high around $1438.66 and the April 2013 top near $1488 can become bull’s favorites. It is worth noting that the 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) recently bounced off the oversold territory. Alternatively, a downside break of $1405 HMA support can take halt around Friday’s bottom surrounding $1382 ahead of visiting an area comprising 200-HMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $1373/75. If at all the quote keep trading southwards beneath $1373, $1362 and $1348 might lure the sellers. Gold hourly chartTrend: Bullish  

Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, notes that the RBNZ today held the OCR at 1.5% as universally expected and the Committee highlighted increasin

Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ, notes that the RBNZ today held the OCR at 1.5% as universally expected and the Committee highlighted increasing downside global risks, while acknowledging that the local data had been mixed.Key Quotes“The RBNZ concluded that “a lower OCR may be needed over time”. We expect two further OCR cuts in August and November.” “There was no urgency for the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR again immediately. The economy has indeed slowed considerably, but the most forward-looking indicators – and looser financial conditions – suggest a recovery in the second half of the year. The global slowdown is real, but the pass-through into the New Zealand economy has been muted so far – and there are reasons to think commodity prices may continue to be resilient. The labour market is still tight (though employment fell in Q1), and inflation is still trending up, albeit too slowly for the Reserve Bank’s liking.” “All that said, the downside risks are clear.” “The Summary Record of Meeting confirmed that it was a consensus decision to leave the OCR unchanged. Since the Committee has been instructed to seek consensus, this fact is not particularly newsworthy.”

Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, notes that the RBNZ kept the cash rate on hold at 1.50% and indicated that th

Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, notes that the RBNZ kept the cash rate on hold at 1.50% and indicated that the cash rate may need to be cut in response to the weaker global economic outlook and slowing domestic growth.Key Quotes“Today's statement was in line with our expectations heading into the rate decision with the RBNZ shifting from a 'balanced' outlook to an easing bias - 'a lower OCR may be needed'.” “This shift keeps open the possibility of the RBNZ cutting the cash rate at its August meeting. Markets were pricing in close to a 90% probability to an August cut, but post statement this has been scaled back to 75%.” “The Committee acknowledged that the Outlook for the economy has softened relative to the May 2019 projections, so expect changes to the forecasts when the next set are published in the August MPS.” “The Bank discussed a slowdown in domestic growth before outlining the weakening global outlook. Unlike the May cut, which was a pre-emptive move against a flare up in trade tensions, domestic factors are likely to play a greater role in any future cut(s).” “The Bank noted CPI and employment objectives were tilted to the downside and referenced softer house prices and subdued business sentiment could dampen household spending.” “Before the August meeting on 7th August, the Bank will get another round of reads on Business investment, Q2 CPI (16th July) and Q2 Employment (6th Aug) to help shape its decision.”

Having reversed from the 50-day SMA, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2685 ahead of the London open on Wednesday as traders await the key UK event.

Disappointing CBI data, hard-Brexit fears cap the GBP/USD pair’s upside.Latest positive comments from the UK PM candidate limit the declines.BOE’s quarterly inflation report hearing, the Governor Carney’s speech is on the spotlight for fresh clues.Having reversed from the 50-day SMA, mainly because of renewed Brexit fears and sluggish data from the UK’s CB retail sales survey, the GBP/USD pair trades modestly flat near 1.2685 ahead of the London open on Wednesday. In addition to the UK Prime Minister (PM) candidate Boris Johnson’s pledge to crash out of the EU on October 31 and sluggish CBI data, less dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve policymakers also triggered the Cable’s recent pullback. While Boris Johnson threatened to follow World Trade Organization’s (WTO) rules for Brexit if the EU refrains from cooperating, his competitor Jeremy Hunt said, during his latest interview to the BBC,  that he’ll only support no-deal Brexit if there is no better option to discuss with the EU. Even if the statement sounds almost similar to Mr.Johnson, it reveals Hunt’s respect towards the EU. Looking forward, quarterly inflation report hearing by the Bank of England (BOE) policymakers and a press conference by the Governor Mark Carney will be closely observed for fresh clues. On the other hand, the US Durable Goods Orders for May month and comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Chief Mary C. Daly will also play their role to entertain traders. The forecast suggests, the US Durable Goods Orders to inch up from -2.1% to +0.2% whereas Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aircrafts could rise to +0.1% from a downwardly revised previous readout of -1.0%. Further, the Fed’s Daly will be observed to seek confirmation of recent rhetoric from the US central bank lawmakers. The BOE’s inflation report hearing might emphasis more on the recent market developments considering the 2-month old age of the report. As a result, Carney & co. could awail the opportunity to be optimistic. Technical Analysis A 50-day simple moving average (SMA) limits the pair’s immediate advances near 1.2800, a break of which can propel prices to April low around 1.2865 whereas 21-day SMA level of 1.2667 confines the short-term downside prior to highlighting May low close to 1.2560.

The EUR/USD pair is teasing a break below key support at 1.1355, having charted a bearish candlestick pattern on Tuesday on the back of not-so-dovish

Tuesday’s bearish outside day makes today’s close pivotal. Fed officials pushed back on aggressive rate cut calls, pushing the USD higher. An above-forecast US durable goods data could yield a bearish daily close. The EUR/USD pair is teasing a break below key support at 1.1355, having charted a bearish candlestick pattern on Tuesday on the back of not-so-dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.  The American dollar picked up a bid in the US trading hours after the Fed officials squashed expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in July. President Powell said the central bank is assessing whether a cut in the borrowing costs is required. Further, Fed’s Bullard said the current US economic conditions do not warrant a 50 basis point cut in interest rates. As a result, EUR/USD fell 0.28%, engulfing the previous day’s high and low. Essentially, the pair created a bearish outside day candle, which is widely considered an early warning of potential bearish reversal. The trend change, however, would be confirmed only if the pair closes today below yesterday’s low of 1.1344.  A bearish close could be seen if the US durable goods data for May, due at 12:30 GMT, blows past expectations, validating Bullard’s comments and forcing markets to scale back expectations of aggressive Fed easing.  On the other hand, a combination of above-above-forecast German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul) (due at 06:00 GMT) and a weaker-than-expected US durable goods data could send the pair above Tuesday’s high of 1.1412. That would invalidate the bearish outside day and revive the case for a rally to 1.16 put forward by Friday’s bullish breakout.  As of writing, the pair is trading around the former resistance-turned-support of the inverse head-and-shoulders neckline level of 1.1355. Pivot points 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Deputy Governor (Financial Stability) Geoff Bascand is on the wires now, giving a scheduled speech, with the Q&A session l

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Deputy Governor (Financial Stability) Geoff Bascand is on the wires now, giving a scheduled speech, with the Q&A session likely to follow. Key Headlines: Renewing the RBNZ's approach to financial stability. Regulated financial institutions can expect supervisory approach to intensify.

With the API data providing additional strength to WTI’s recent run-up mainly based on the US-Iran tension, the black gold now confronts the key MA.

200-D EMA limits WTI’s recent upward trajectory.A surprise draw in API data, US-Iran tussle favor the upside.The EIA inventory report in the spotlight for fresh clues.With the API data providing additional strength to WTI’s recent run-up mainly based on the US-Iran tension, the black gold now confronts the key MA resistance while taking the bids near $58.85 during early Wednesday. The surprise slump in the weekly US oil stocks change report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) to -7.550 million barrels from -0.812 million barrels pleased the energy buyers during late-Tuesday. The US-Iran geopolitical tensions continue to flare up as Iran considers latest sanctions from the US President Donald Trump closing the door for further talks. However, the Arab nation turned down the possibilities of war. Traders may now await official stockpile data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to confirm the industry based reading. Additionally, developments surrounding the geopolitical tussle between the US and Iran, together with the US-China trade tussle, will also grab market attention. Technical Analysis FXStreet Analysis, Ross J. Burland, cites 200-day Experiential Moving Average (200-D EMA) as the key upside resistance limiting the energy benchmark’s recent rally: 200-D EMA guards a run to the May highs of $59.67 in close proximity of the $60 psychological level. On the downside, bears can target back down to the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo around the 52 handle. Lower down, there are prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44.

USD/JPY’s corrective rally continues and the exchange rate is now hovering at session highs near 107.50. The RSI on the daily chart is bouncing up fro

USD/JPY is better bid despite risk-off in Asian stocks.Fed pushes back on aggressive rate cut views.USD/JPY’s corrective rally continues and the exchange rate is now hovering at session highs near 107.50.  The RSI on the daily chart is bouncing up from oversold territory, signaling scope for further gains.  Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart is reporting a bullish divergence of the RSI.  As a result, the pair could rise to resistance at 107.73 on the 4-hour chart.  The gains in USD/JPY may come as a surprise to many. After all, the Asian equities are reporting losses and still the anti-risk Japanese Yen is losing ground.  It appears the Asian FX desks are buying US dollars in response to Federal Reserve officials tempering aggressive rate cut expectations.  On Tuesday, Fed’s Bullard said that the current US economic conditions do not warrant a 50 basis point rate cut in July. Further, Chairman Powell’s said the central bank is assessing whether a cut in borrowing costs is required.  4-hour chartTrend: Oversold bouncePivot points 

Reuters recently came out with a news report mentioning that the Philadelphia Energy Solutions is seeking closure of its refinery unit.

Reuters recently came out with a news report mentioning that the Philadelphia Energy Solutions is seeking closure of its refinery unit located in South Philadelphia following a fire on Friday. The said unit has the refining capacity of 335,000 barrels per day. Oil prices refrain from showing much attention to the news while remaining overall positive off-late.

Asia stocks are on the defensive this Wednesday morning in Asia as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) tempered expectations for aggressive cuts in borrowing

Asian equities report losses as Fed tempers rate cut expectations. Caution ahead of the G-20 summit could cap upside in stocks, if any. Asia stocks are on the defensive this Wednesday morning in Asia as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) tempered expectations for aggressive cuts in borrowing costs.  As of writing, Japan’s Nikkei is reporting 0.39% losses and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is shedding 0.11%. Stocks in China, Hong Kong and South Korea are also flashing moderate losses.  The US stocks fell in the overnight trade with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) falling by 179 points, the biggest one-day loss since May 31.  The equities came under pressure as the Fed’s Bullard said the current economic conditions do not warrant a 50 basis point rate cut in interest rates in July. Further, Chairman Powell said the US central bank is assessing whether current economic conditions call for cut in borrowing costs and further added that the Fed is “insulated from short-term political interests.” It is worth noting that President Trump recently criticized Powell by calling hum a stubborn child for refusing to cut rates.  The Fed removed the word patience form its forward guidance last week. The markets took it as a sign of the Fed laying groundwork for a cut in interest rates. However, Powell’s latest comments indicate the central bank is still on a wait and watch mode.  The markets may continue to trade flat-to-negative for the rest of the week on account of caution ahead of the G-20 summit in Japan this weekend.  President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on the sidelines of the G-20 meeting.   

AUD/USD is attempting a break above the 50-day moving average (MA) hurdle this Wednesday morning in Asia, having failed to hold on to gains above the

AUD/USD is chipping away at the 50-day MA hurdle for the second day. Fed's Bullard pushed back against 50 bps rate cut in July. The daily chart is biased in favor of the bulls. AUD/USD is attempting a break above the 50-day moving average (MA) hurdle this Wednesday morning in Asia, having failed to hold on to gains above the crucial average on Tuesday. The US Federal Reserve officials pushed back against aggressive rate cut views Tuesday. Notably, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the US economic situation is not dire enough to warrant a 50 basis point rate cut in July. As a result, the USD picked up a bid and the AUD/USD pair ended up creating a doji candle at the 50-day MA hurdle on Tuesday. As of writing, the pair is trading around the 50-day MA of 0.6965. It is worth noting that Fed's Bullard maintained his call for a 25 basis point cut in July. Further, the pair has found acceptance above 0.6949 and the 5- and 10-day MAs are reporting a bullish crossover. The 14-day relative strength index is also reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 print. As a result, the pair could find acceptance above the 50-day MA. Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points 

The North Korean news agency, KCNA, reports the government saying that the US extension of sanctions is a direct challenge to the Singapore Summit Agr

The North Korean news agency, KCNA, reports the government saying that the US extension of sanctions is a direct challenge to the Singapore Summit Agreement and an extreme act of hostility. The safe-haven Yen remains unimpressed by the above headlines, with USD/JPY flirting with daily tops near 107.50 levels.

Having initially popped by near 40 pips, the AUD/NZD now declines to 1.0470 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

RBNZ met market expectations of no rate cut.RBNZ signaled the need for a future reduction in the OCR.Upbeat comments for domestic GDP might have lured the sellers.Having initially popped by near 40 pips, the AUD/NZD now declines to 1.0467 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced no change into its present monetary policy during early Wednesday. Traders might have emphasized comments from the rate statement that says “while global economic conditions had deteriorated, the Committee noted that domestic GDP growth had held up more than projected in the March 2019 quarter.” Ahead of the announcement, market consensus favored no rate change announcements from the RBNZ. However, a dovish appearance and signals for a second rate cut of 2019 in August were largely anticipated. While RBNZ is already out and loud, and there prevails no fresh data left for publishing from either Australia or New Zealand, global trade tussles will provide a fresh impulse to the pair traders. While China and the US are less likely to announce any breakthrough during their much awaited G20 meet, latest trade tussle between the China and Canada might give an opportunity to the US President Donald Trump to take over his twitter handle and support Canada after the nation recently promised to help the US with the rare earth metals. Technical Analysis The quote needs to regain its stand beyond 100-day moving average (100-DMA), at 1.0507 now, in order to aim for 1.0550 and 200-DMA level of 1.0589, if not then chances of its extended south-run to 1.0450 and 1.0400 levels can’t be ruled out

The NZD/USD fell 40 pips to a session low of 0.6595 in a knee jerk reaction to dovish forward guidance by Reserve Bank of New Zealand only to rise all

NZD/USD is witnessing two-way business following RBZN's rate decision. The central bank kept rates unchanged and maintained dovish bias, as expected. Markets are priced for July rate cut. The NZD/USD fell 40 pips to a session low of 0.6595 in a knee jerk reaction to dovish forward guidance by Reserve Bank of New Zealand only to rise all the way back to 0.6646.  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its cash rate unchanged at a record low of 1.5%, as expected and said a lower interest rate may be needed over time, courtesy of a weaker global economic outlook and risk of ongoing subdued economic growth.  The dovish comments were in line with expectations. Further, markets have already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in July. As a result, the Kiwi quickly recovered the 40 pip drop seen immediately after the rate decision.  Looking forward, the NZD/USD could rise to 0.6681 (June 7 high) if treasury yields continue to slide on dovish Federal Reserve expectations.  The Fed, however, pushed back against aggressive rate cut views on Tuesday with St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard stating that the US economic situation isn't dire enough to warrant cutting rates by a half-percentage point at its next meeting in July. As a result, the Kiwi may have a tough time breaking above the immediate resistance at 0.6681. As of writing, the currency pair is trading t 0.6648. Pivot points 

At its June monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, New Zealand’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its Official Cash Rat

At its June monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, New Zealand’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at fresh historic lows of 1.50%, as widely expected. “All forecasters in the Bloomberg survey look for no change at 1.5%, while money markets price a 20% chance of a 25bp rate cut,” Analysts at Westpac noted.About RBNZ Interest Rate DecisionRBNZ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD.

Following a rally in the greenback, EUR/JPY has been pushed back above the 20 and 50 4-hour moving averages through 121.90. However, while below the w

Following a rally in the greenback, EUR/JPY has been pushed back above the 20 and 50 4-hour moving averages through 121.90.  However, while below the wider 21-week moving average close to the 124 handle, and May highs trendline resistance keeps the bulls in check. Only a run above 38.2% retracement at 123.10 will rattle the bears. Price can continue lower towards 119.91 as being a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ahead of 117.80s and flash crash lows. On a break of the 21-week moving average at 123.75, bulls will look towards as being the 125.52 78.6% retracement ahead of the 200-day ma at 126.17.

New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (1.5%)

The Goldman Sachs strategists offer their bullish view on the Euro against the greenback despite ECB’s further easing calls. Key Quotes: "Despite the

The Goldman Sachs strategists offer their bullish view on the Euro against the greenback despite ECB’s further easing calls. Key Quotes: "Despite the increasing probability of further ECB easing in July it "still seems to be the currency of choice". Has seen short covering supporting it. Expect this to continue in the near term, providing further supporting. Systematic traders using simple momentum approaches likely to buy given it broke above its 200-day MA. Expect to see more USD unwinding vs. other recurrences as well as against EUR."

The latest quarterly Beige Book highlights the modest improvement in China's economy in Q2. Main Points: Manufacturing and retail sectors outperformin

The latest quarterly Beige Book highlights the modest improvement in China's economy in Q2. Main Points: Manufacturing and retail sectors outperforming Looking ahead, risks are more serious though: Capex is flat Record levels of inventories. Shadow finance increasing. Surprise inflation pressures.

The USD/CHF pair’s recent pullback currently heads towards short-term key resistance-confluence as it trades near 0.9765 during early Wednesday.

USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.9693 heads to immediate resistance-confluence.An upside break can trigger the pair’s rise to 200-HMA.The USD/CHF pair’s recent pullback currently heads towards short-term key resistance-confluence as it trades near 0.9765 during early Wednesday. The 100-hour moving average (HMA) and June 24 high near 0.9784/87 seems the strong upside resistance that holds the key to the quote’s run-up to June 21 top close to 0.9840. Should there be additional increase past-0.9840, 200-HMA level of 0.9883 can lure the buyers. On the downside, an upward sloping trend-line connecting lows since yesterday offers the closest support around 0.9740, a break of which can recall month’s low of 0.9693. Gradually rising 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) highlights the upside momentum but nearness to overbought levels could confine the pair’s advances beyond the key resistance. USD/CHF hourly chartTrend: Pullback expected 

AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0490, having hit a high of 1.05 earlier today. The currency pair has found acceptance below the 100-day moving avera

AUD/NZD is trading below the 100-day MA.RBNZ is expected to keep rates unchanged today.Markets expect the RBNZ to cut rates in July.AUD/NZD is currently trading at 1.0490, having hit a high of 1.05 earlier today. The currency pair has found acceptance below the 100-day moving average (MA) for the first time since April 3. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) widely expected to maintain its current cash rate of 1.50%, having reduced its base rate by 25 basis points last month.  The recent economic data releases have shown that New Zealand's economy is hardly suffering at all and does not warrant a series of rate cuts, as noted by FXStreet's Joseph Trevisani. As a result, the odds of RBNZ striking an outright dovish tone are quite low. That said, markets are priced in for an RBNZ rate cut in July. Even so, the AUD/NZD pair could continue to lose ground as the markets expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates by 50 basis points before the year-end. The bias, however, would flip in favor of the AUD if the RBNZ sounds dovish, forcing markets to price in the possibility of one more rate cut after July.Pivot levels 

At its routine bond buying operation conducted on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains 1-3-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) buying at 350B

At its routine bond buying operation conducted on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains 1-3-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) buying at 350B Yen while 3-5-year JGB buying was also maintained at 400b yen. The USD/JPY pair caught a fresh bid wave and jumped to daily highs at 107.42, tracking the renewed strength in the US dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields, as less dovish comments from the FOMC dove Bullard continue to underpin.

Having reversed from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the USD/CNH pair is aiming for the four-week-old horizontal resistance (previous support).

A bounce from 200-DMA enables USD/CNH buyers to aim for a month-old support-turned upside hurdle.21-DMA can welcome the bulls past-breakout whereas 61.8% Fibo. acts as nearby support.Having reversed from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the USD/CNH pair is aiming for the four-week-old horizontal resistance (previous support) as it trades near 6.8850 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. A successful break of 6.8870/83 support-turned-resistance area can propel the pair towards 21-DMA level of 6.9142 whereas 6.9400 may question the quote’s further upside. In a case, prices rally past-6.9400, current month high around 6.9626 and November 2018 top surrounding 6.9810 can please the bulls. Meanwhile, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November 2018 to March 2019 declines, at 6.8618,  seems adjacent rest for the pair ahead of dragging it to 200-DMA level of 6.8365. USD/CNH daily chartTrend: Bullish 

The People's Bank of China has set USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8701 (vs. yesterday at 6.8580).

The People's Bank of China has set USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8701 (vs. yesterday at 6.8580).

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8701 vs Tuesday's fix at 6.8580.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8701 vs Tuesday's fix at 6.8580. 

Gold prices rallied in Asia but stalled and started to deteriorate in European markets into consolidation before a sell-off emerged on the back of les

The price of Gold stalled overnight on dollar strength Gold is currently trading at $1,413, -0.69% as Fed dials back Fed rate-cut expectations. Gold prices rallied in Asia but stalled and started to deteriorate in European markets into consolidation before a sell-off emerged on the back of less dovish than expected rhetoric from Fed speakers on New York. Gold met the March 2011 resistance at $1,439 and ended the New York session at 1423, having travelled between $1,412.11 and $1,439.31. The greenback rallied hard on the back of Fed's Bullard who stated that a 50 bp cut would be too aggressive in July but advocated for a 25bp cut instead. This was catching the markets off guard ahead of Fed's governor Powell speaking in  New York later that day. Powell said the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee was "grappling with is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional policy accommodation," in prepared remarks. He also stated that the number of tariffs currently in place is not large enough to [directly] have an economic impact, but the uncertainty they bring is impacting the confidence of financial and agricultural markets. However, August gold still managed to settle at $1,418.70 an ounce, the highest finish for a most-active contract since August 28, 2013. Gold levels The price action is once again mixed and leaves a mixed outlook on the charts. The technical momentum indicators remain in overbought territory. "Given that we think this rally will have some legs, we opt to adjust our target to $1485/oz & stop to $1330/oz rather than taking profits," analysts at TD Securities called following Powell folding his cards of late, sending real rates sharply lower, and gold firmly higher.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under short-term key resistance as it takes the rounds to 96.24 on early Wednesday.

Oversold RSI triggered the DXY bounce.Early-month low, 23.6% Fibo. limit the latest pullback.Even if a less negative rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve policymakers triggered the US Dollar Index (DXY) pullback observing oversold RSI, the greenback gauge still remains under short-term key resistance as it takes the rounds to 96.24 on early Wednesday. Not only June 07 bottom but 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of May – June downpour and 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA) on the daily chart, around 96.44/46, also restricts the quote’s immediate upside. As a result, the pullback towards 96.00 and then to a recent low of 95.84 can’t be ruled out. Also, additional declines below 95.84 can push bears towards 95.17 and 95.00 afterward. On the contrary, sustained break of 96.46 may escalate the recovery towards 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of 96.81 and 97.11 ahead of highlighting 200-bar moving average (4H 200MA) level of 97.36 as the key resistance. DXY 4-hour chartTrend: Pullback expected  

Japan will hold an election for the upper house on July 21, the government said on Wednesday. Speculation was doing the rounds earlier this month that

Japan will hold an election for the upper house on July 21, the government said on Wednesday.  Speculation was doing the rounds earlier this month that Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would also call a snap election for the more powerful lower house. Abe, however, ruled out such a move and has kicked off campaigning for half the seats in the less powerful of parliament’s two chambers. The recent furor over pensions has reportedly eaten into Abe’s support rate. Even so, the LDP-led coalition is expected to keep its majority over the fragmented opposition parties. 

EUR/USD fell 0.28 percent on Tuesday, engulfing Monday's high and low and ending the four-day winning streak. The currency pair, however, defended the

EUR/USD's four-day winning streak ended on Tuesday.The inverse head-and-shoulders breakout is still valid.The bullish case would weaken below 1.1344.EUR/USD fell 0.28 percent on Tuesday, engulfing Monday's high and low and ending the four-day winning streak. The currency pair, however, defended the former resistance-turned-support of the 200-day moving average (MA), which was located at 1.1355 on Tuesday. Interestingly, the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern breached was also seen at 1.1355 yesterday. Put simply, the bullish outlook put forward by an upside break of the 200-day MA and the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout on Friday is still valid. Supporting the bullish case is the fact that the 5-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day MA for the first time since May 2018. The case for a rally to 1.16 would further strengthen if the pair bolsters the bullish setup with a close above Tuesday's high of 1.1412. The outlook, however, would turn bearish if the pair finds acceptance below 1.1344 – the low of Tuesday's bearish outside day candle. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1361. Daily chartTrend: BullishPivot points 

USD/JPY shot through to the 107 the figure and reached a high of 107.34 overnight following less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers in t

USD/JPY volts he 107 big figure as rate cuts a dialled back from market expectations. Consumer confidence and stocks take a trip south, leaving the bullish prospects minimal. USD/JPY shot through to the 107 the figure and reached a high of 107.34 overnight following less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers in the New York session. The initial spike came on the back of Fed's Bullard who stated that a 50 bp cut would be too aggressive in July but advocated for a 25bp cut instead. This was followed up by Fed's governor Powell speaking in  New York who said, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee was "grappling with is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional policy accommodation," in prepared remarks. He also stated that the number of tariffs currently in place is not large enough to [directly] have an economic impact, but the uncertainty they bring is impacting the confidence of financial and agricultural markets. Subsequently, the DXY rammed through the 96 figure and the yen gave back 50 pips in favour of the bulls in USD/JPY which have been bailing out since the end of April in anticipation of Fed rate cuts throughout the year cou0led with deteriorating global economic growth forecasts and endless disputes between the U.S. and its trading-counter-partners, such as China.  Meanwhile, however, there are too many uncertainties for the pair to really find any traction, especially considering the deteriorating backdrop with respect to the yield spread and U.S. rates. Overnight, while the US 2yr treasury yields jumped from 1.70% to 1.76% on the Bullard/Powell comments, they still fell back to 1.73%. The 10yr yield extended its downward trend to 1.98% and markets are still pricing in 33bp of easing at the July meeting (was 36bp yesterday), with a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020, as noted by analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation.  US Consumer Confidence and S&P 500 positive correlation  In the same vein, US Consumer Confidence was disappointing and U.S. stocks were deteriorating. As can be seen in the chart below, there is a strong correlation between U.S. consumer confidence the price of the S&P 500 index, (red), with periods of US recession: "Consumer confidence in the US fell sharply in June following a downward revision of May data as trade tensions take their toll. The index which measures the current situation fell to its lowest level in 12 months, while the forward-looking index was at its lowest level since January," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that the USD/JPY posted the fourth daily close between 107.30 and 107.15: "The trend remains bearish, but the pair shows difficulties in holding far from the mentioned area. Another signal of a not so strong trend move is the fact that it closed far from the fresh 5-month low it reached at 106.76. The daily chart shows the RSI flat under 30 and price well below the 20 SMA (108.30) with no immediate risk to the bearish outlook. Ahead of the Asian session, the pair seems consolidating but still unable to reclaim the 20 SMA in the four hours chart at 107.25. The US dollar is likely to face resistance between 107.25 and 107.50. A slide back under 107.00 will increase the bearish pressure, exposing Tuesday’s lows and 106.50."

GBP/USD trades little changed after renewed fears of no-deal Brexit and less dovish Fed speak dragged the pair back from a month’s high.

Less dovish Fed speak, no-deal Brexit fears weaken the GBP/USD.The BOE’s quarterly inflation report hearings on the spotlight.Fewer moves by the pair can be expected between 50 and 21-DMA.While renewed fears of no-deal Brexit and less dovish Fed speak dragged the GBP/USD pair back from a month’s high, the Cable trades little changed near 1.2690 during early Wednesday. The UK Prime Minister (PM) prospect, Boris Johnson, was on wires via BBC when he reiterated his previous pledge to leave the EU on October 31. He also mentioned using WTO rules if necessary. On the other hand, policymakers from the US Federal Reserve, including the Chairman Jerome Powell, remained less dovish while turning down the odds of the need for an immediate rate cut. During early Wednesday, the other candidate for the UK PM’s race, Jeremy Hunt, was interviewed by the BBC. He tried assuring British voters that he can get a new Brexit deal from the EU because of his personality. However, the British Pound (GBP) showed little reaction to the comments. Looking forward, Bank of England’s (BOE) quarterly inflation report hearings and a press conference by the Governor Mark Carney will be the key to follow for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis A 21-day moving average (21-DMA) acts as immediate support for the pair around 1.2667 ahead of shifting the bears’ attention to May low surrounding 1.2560. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 50-DMA figure of 1.2800 highlights April low near 1.2865 and 200-DMA level of 1.2923 as follow-on resistances to watch

Early on Wednesday, the market sees the Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision around 02:00 AM GMT.

RBNZ overviewEarly on Wednesday, the market sees the Reserve bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy decision around 12:00 pm Sydney/10:00 am Singapore/HK/02:00 am GMT. Even if lack of quarterly economic assessment dims the charm of the event, the latest push for monetary policy easing across the top-tier central banks highlights the rate statement for fresh clues for future monetary policy moves by the New Zealand central bank. Following latest rate-cut, the RBNZ isn’t expected to announce any change to its Official Cash Rate (OCR) during today’s meeting. However, chances of witnessing dovish statements can’t be ruled out. Recent surveys from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) don’t ring the alarm for the Kiwi economy while keep favoring the need for expansionary monetary policy. TD Securities affirmed market consensus of no rate change ahead of the event by saying: We expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR at 1.50% at tomorrow's meeting with GDP and CPI not deviating significantly from the Bank's forecasts to warrant a cut. However, we do expect the Bank to focus on downside risks which should reinforce the likelihood that the RBNZ is likely to follow up on its May rate cut possibly in August. Elsewhere, Westpac expects no fireworks from today’s event: All forecasters in the Bloomberg survey look for no change at 1.5%, while money markets price a 20% chance of a 25bp rate cut. A dovish statement is expected though and the 7 August meeting – which includes the quarterly MPS – is seen as highly likely to produce a cut to 1.25% (in line with Westpac Group’s view).How could the RBNZ affect NZD/USD?Given the recent flare-up in easy monetary policy support and a rate cut from the central bank of its largest customer Australia, the RBNZ is less likely to turn bull after announcing a rate reduction in its latest meeting. As a result, the NZD/USD pair may remain under pressure unless the central bank turns down chances of the much anticipated August rate cut. Technically, current month high around 0.6682 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6711 can keep the prices under check while 0.6587 mark comprising 50-day SMA, followed by May 27 peak near 0.6560, can limit the pair’s short-term declines.Key NotesNZD/USD seesaws near 2-week top, all eyes on RBNZ NZD/USD wobbles on dollar short-covering ahead of RBNZAbout the RBNZ interest decision and statementThe RBNZ interest rate decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD. The RBNZ rate statement contains the explanations of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

The US Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in July and September and the riks is slanted toward the central bank making more rate

The US Federal Reserve will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in July and September and the risk is slanted toward the central bank making more rate cuts than fewer, according to analysts at National Bank of Australia (NAB).  It is worth noting that markets are fully priced in for a rate cut in July and is pricing two more rate cuts after that. Key pointsWe expect two 25bp reductions in July and September. Considerable event risk around these projections, including the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese Presidents    

The price of a barrel of oil, (WTI), was capped below the daily 200-Experiential Moving Average on Tuesday in a consolidation of the 18th June rally.

The price of a barrel of oil, (WTI), was capped below the daily 200-Experiential Moving Average on Tuesday in a consolidation of the 18th June rally. On the downside, bears can target back down to the 200 weekly EMA (last week's low) and the 61.8% Fibo around the 52 handle. Lower down, there are prospects for a correction to back towards the14th Jan 50.41 low and then the 26th November lows at 49.44. On the upside, the 200-D EMA guards a run to the May highs of $59.67 in close proximity of the $60 psychological level.        

Having registered another failure to cross 100-day moving average (100-DMA), USD/IDR drops back to 14,125 during early Wednesday in Asia.

100-DMA limits USD/IDR upside off-late while a 20-week old ascending trend-line confines the quote’s declines.23.6% Fibonacci retracement of current year movement adds support to the downside.Having registered another failure to cross 100-day moving average (100-DMA), USD/IDR drops back to 14,125 during early Wednesday in Asia. An upward sloping trend-line since February start near 14,090 grabs the market attention for now, a break of which could open the door for the pair’s extended downpour to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 13,976. Should prices keep declining past-13,976, February month low near 13,860 becomes sellers’ favorite. Meanwhile, pair’s ability to cross the 100-DMA level of 14,209 still needs to successfully trade beyond 50% Fibonacci retracement of 14,236 in order to justify strength to target 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 14,351. In a case, buyers refrain from respecting 14,351 resistance, 200-DMA level of 14,416 will regain market attention. USD/IDR daily chartTrend: Bearish 

FX overnight was friendly for the Dollar that witnessed short covering across the board as the Fed officials dampened down the rate hike hysteria with

Short-covering in the greenback sees space back on the 96 handle in the DXY.US 2 year treasury yields jumped from 1.70% to 1.76%.FX overnight was friendly for the Dollar that witnessed short covering across the board as the Fed officials dampened down the rate hike hysteria with various comments throughout the New York session. The DXY started the day at 95.84 and ended on the 96 handle, albeit somewhat off its highest point for the session at 96.36. The Dollar was making a come back following Bullard's suggestion that a 50bp cut would be too much in July, albeit advocating for a 25bp cut. Then, Fed's chair Powell speaking in New York reiterated last week’s FOMC view that the case for lower rates had strengthened but argued that “monetary policy should not overreact to any individual data point or short-term swing in sentiment.” Following the speech, in a Q&A session, Powell was highlighting trade worries ahead of the G20 get together between Trump and Xi on the sidelines of this weekend's G20. Fed president Barkin said the Fed is ready to move if needed. Subsequently, the 10-year yield dropped 1.98% while US 2 year treasury yields jumped from 1.70% to 1.76% on the Bullard/Powell comments, ending down at 1.73% as markets settled for rate cuts nonetheless - All in all, markets were pricing in a 33bp of easing at the July meeting, slightly lower than yesterday's 36bp for a total of four cuts priced by mid-2020. On data, the Consumer Confidence reading fell sharply in June following a downward revision of May data as trade tensions take their toll. "The index which measures the current situation fell to its lowest level in 12 months, while the forward-looking index was at its lowest level since January. New home sales data for May was also disappointing with lower interest rates having no impact. Home sales fell 7.8% in May following a 3.7% fall in April," analysts at ANZ bank explained. Analysts at Westpac offered a breakdown of action overnight in the currencies in focus for today's Asian session as follows:   EUR/USD fell from 1.1410 to 1.1344 on Powell.  USD/JPY rose from 106.80 to 107.40, recovering some ground lost as equity markets remained under pressure.  AUD/USD is little changed at 0.6960, after initially extending a week-old rally to 0.6968, and then falling to 0.6942 on the Fed comments before edging back up.  Outperformer NZD extended its week-old rally, from 0.6640 to 0.6661 then back to 0.6640.  AUD/NZD continued to probe the downside, to 1.0462 – the lowest since 3 April. Key notes from Wall Street:Wall Street's wings clipped on Fed rate-cut-enthusiasm dampenerKey events ahead: The RBNZ announces its monetary policy decision at 12pm Syd/10am Sing/HK. "Kiwi’s meteoric rise continues while the USD remains under pressure. Hopes of renewed negotiations between the US and China boosts sentiment whilst markets now turn their attention to the RBNZ’s OCR Review," analysts at ANZ Bank explained. 

With little momentum inside a week-long ascending triangle formation, the AUD/JPY pair takes the rounds to 74.60 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

Short-term rising triangle portrays the AUD/JPY pair moves.Steady RSI indicates less momentum unless either side breakouts.With little momentum inside a week-long ascending triangle formation, the AUD/JPY pair takes the rounds to 74.60 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Not only immediate technical formation but lack of change in the 14-bar relative strength index (RSI) also signals redundant trade sentiment unless either side of the pattern breaks. In doing so, a clear break of 74.80 resistance-line can propel the quote towards 75.00 and then to the 75.40. On the flipside, 74.13 and 73.92 can entertain sellers on the slip beneath 74.40 pattern support. AUD/JPY hourly chartTrend: Sideways  

With China blocking the Canadian meat from entering its land, the USD/CAD pair takes the bids near 1.3185 during the early Asian session on Wednesday.

Investors sense fresh trade tussle as China halts all meat imports from Canada.Early-month low near 1.3242 caps latest recovery, highlights 1.3150 support.With China blocking the Canadian meat from entering its land, the USD/CAD pair takes the bids near 1.3185 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Reuters reports that the Chinese embassy in Canada recently confirmed that the former has completely halted the meat imports from the later after the pork was found with ractopamine residue. It was further mentioned that fake veterinary health certificates for meat products were found by the Chinese authorities that pushed the dragon nation towards shutting the door for any Canadian meat products. The news report also cited Chinese push to Canada’s government towards taking steps to “reduce the negative impact on the reputation of its products in order to restore the confidence of Chinese consumers.” The issue at hand might have had a lesser impact on the markets in any other scenario than the present trade tensions. The Canadian Agriculture Minister is still to respond to recent allegations and will be observed for sure. Elsewhere, policymakers from the US Federal Reserve are on the wire off-late, flashing mixed signals concerning the central bank’s future monetary policy moves. St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard recently shifted from its previous less dovish stance indicating the likelihood of two rate cuts during the year. Technical Analysis Latest lows surrounding 1.3150 can act as immediate support for the pair during its fresh downturn, a break of which highlights 1.3100 and February month low near 1.3070 as the key rest-points. Should prices hold recent recovery, a sustained break of early-month low near 1.3242 becomes necessary to validate the pair’s run up towards 200-day moving average (200-MA) level around 1.3283.

The Financial Times has reported that Chinese exporters have warned that their business is growing at its slowest pace in three years as the trade war

The Chinese government is already moving more quickly towards outright economic stimulus.A survey suggests that economic conditions are weakening further.The Financial Times has reported that Chinese exporters have warned that their business is growing at its slowest pace in three years as the trade war takes a greater toll.  Key notes from the article: Furthermore, more than a quarter of firms now believe that the trade war is a permanent fixture of relations with the US, and not just a passing feature of the Trump administration, according to the latest FT Confidential Research survey of exporters.  The June survey was conducted as hope grew among global investors that a meeting in Osaka between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the end of the month might at least result in an agreement to withhold further tariffs and resume official dialogue.  Although Chinese state media have struck a defiant tone, our latest survey suggests the trade war is increasingly painful for exporters, with 37 per cent of the 200 companies polled in June saying it was having some or a very negative impact on their business.  While 61 per cent of exporting firms said the trade dispute was having no impact, our broader export survey showed the sector continuing to lose steam, with volume and value growth slowing sharply, and sequential and year-on-year gauges of profitability showing big falls. Our headline index fell 2.1 points from May to 50.9, its weakest reading since June 2016.  The FTCR China Freight Index, a survey of 200 air, rail, road and waterway logistics firms, fell 1.4 points from May to 47.5, its lowest level since last June. The survey found a growing number of firms reporting that volumes were being hit by slower business, suggesting that economic conditions are weakening further. In recent weeks, the government has signalled a more assertive approach to stimulus than that seen over the past year, including a loosening of restrictions on infrastructure project financing. In the event that Mr Trump and Mr Xi fail to agree, the likelihood increases that tariffs will be imposed by the US on practically all Chinese goods imports.  With economic conditions fragile, the Chinese government is already moving more quickly towards outright economic stimulus. The speed at which it travels to this policy position will be that much faster should the worst-case scenario become reality. FX implications: AUD/USD and the dollar are directly implicated by trade war news while risk-off currencies such as JPY and CHF will catch a bid on worsening sentiment and deteriorating prospects of a solution tot he Chinese/US trade war saga.   

Even after recovering some of the latest losses during early-day, the AUD/USD pair still trades beneath 50-day moving average (50-DMA) on early Wednesday.

The shift in Fed policymakers’ comments drives the AUD/USD off-late.Lack of economic data from Australia diverts market attention to politics/US statistics.50-DMA continues to limit the pair’s near-term upside towards 0.7000 round-figure.Even after recovering some of the latest losses during early-day, the AUD/USD pair still trades beneath 50-day moving average (50-DMA) as it takes the rounds to 0.6960 amid initial Asian session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair recently stepped back from the short-term key MA after some of the US Federal Reserve members, including the Chairman, reiterated their support for present monetary policy while giving less dovish statements. Current run-up might have influenced by the latest comments from the St Louis Fed President Bullard who said that two rate cuts by year-end would provide a soft landing to the US economy. Risk sentiment has been sluggish off-late mainly due to the Fed-led market pessimism and the US-Iran geopolitical tension. The global risk gauge, 10-year US treasury yield, remains under 2.0% by the press time. It should also be noted that the US and Chinese leaders are ready to meet during the G20, giving a sigh of relief after a deadlocked trade negotiations. However, no breakthrough is expected to arrive from the talks in Japan. With no major data from Australia scheduled for publishing, traders might concentrate more on the US Durable Goods Orders for May. The headline is expected to inch up from -2.1% to +0.2% whereas Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aircrafts might also take a U-turn from downwardly revised -1.0% figure to +0.1% growth. Additionally, comments from the US Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary C. Daly will also be observed for fresh impulse. Technical Analysis A successful break of 0.6966 comprising 50-DMA becomes necessary for the buyers to aim for 0.7000 round-figure whereas 100-DMA level near 0.7037 can entertain the bulls afterward. On the other hand, a downside break of 0.6936, encompassing 21-DMA, could recall 0.6900 and 0.6880 back to the chart

The Chinese Embassy in Canada has confirmed that China has halted Canadian meat imports after pork was found with ractopamine residue. This is weighin

Chinese Embassy in Canada has confirmed that China has halted Canadian meat imports.USD/CAD is trading 20 pips higher on the Asian sessions between 1.3164 and 1.3186.The Chinese Embassy in Canada has confirmed that China has halted Canadian meat imports after pork was found with ractopamine residue. This is weighing on the Loonie lifting Funds. USD/CAD is now trading 20 pips higher on the Asian sessions between 1.3164 and 1.3186. Reuters explained that China will turn away any “meat products” shipped from Canada starting on Wednesday, according to a report in Le Journal de Montreal, citing an official in the office of the Chinese consulate general in Montreal: The justification for the total block is that China said it had found a number of fake veterinary health certificates for meat products imported from Canada because of poor supervision, the newspaper said. According to Le Journal de Montreal, Chinese diplomats said they hope Canada will take the necessary steps to “reduce the negative impact on the reputation of its products in order to restore the confidence of Chinese consumers.” The Chinese consul’s office in Montreal could not be immediately reached for comment. The spokeswoman for Canadian Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau said she would comment shortly.
 

Fed's Bullard, who shook the markets to their core earlier on the following his comments that argued a 50 bp cut would be too much in July, has now sa

Fed's Bullard, who shook the markets to their core earlier on the following his comments that argued a 50 bp cut would be too much in July, has now said that he thinks 2 rate cuts by year-end would provide a soft landing. More from Bullard: If Fed does cut rates in July, he does not feel a need to also end reduction in the balance sheet since that is already going to end in September. Part of preference for a rate reduction in June was tactical, would prefer to move rather than promise a move in the future.Earlier:Fed's Bullard: 50 basis points rate cut in July would be overdoneFX implications: Markets are monitoring every word that Fed speakers are coming out with since the last Fed meeting. There was an immediate 25 point move in the DXY following Bullard's comment and then, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also dampened expectations of an uber-dovish Fed for the rest of this year. Powell said the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee was "grappling with is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional policy accommodation," in prepared remarks. He also stated that the amount of tariffs currently in place are not large enough to [directly] have an economic impact, but the uncertainty they bring is impacting the confidence of financial and agricultural markets. Possible more to come from Bullard...

Adding to his previous comments, the Richmond Fed President Thomas I. Barkin recently said that the inflation expectations are very anchored.

Adding to his previous comments, the Richmond Fed President Thomas I. Barkin recently said that the inflation expectations are very anchored and he doesn’t know more about the need for a rate cut or rate cuts. Key Comments: There is a risk the US talks itself into a recession, but sees no sign that is happening yet. Inflation expectations are very anchored. Fed policy is still modestly accommodative. Don’t know whether rate cut or cuts will be needed this year. FX implications: While latest comments from the US Federal Reserve policymakers have been a bit less dovish, Barkin’s overall neutral statements are less likely to have much impact on the US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) came up with its own analysis of New Zealand’s economic conditions and monetary policy ahead of the RBNZ.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) came up with its own analysis of New Zealand’s economic conditions and monetary policy ahead of the monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The global lender holds neutral stand for the Kiwi economy and favors the current monetary policy fitting subdued inflation conditions. Key points: Downside risks to New Zealand's growth outlook have increased but it has policy space to respond should risks materialize. The economic expansion is solid, but lost momentum recently. RBNZ’s current monetary policy stance fits subdued inflation conditions.

Despite trimming some gains on the back of less dovish rhetoric from the Fed policymakers, the NZD/USD still stays strong near 2-week high before RBNZ.

NZD/USD remains under pressure ahead of the RBNZ.Markets expect a dovish rate statement considering the latest global support for easy monetary policy.The sustained trading above  0.6610 favors the quote’s upside from the technical aspect.Despite trimming some gains on the back of less dovish rhetoric from the Fed policymakers, the NZD/USD still stays strong near 2-week high while taking the rounds to 0.6640 at the start of Wednesday’s Asian session. Investors now await monetary policy meeting decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) for near-term trade direction. Not only the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s refrain from entertaining immediate rate cut concerns and the US President Donald Trump’s push but the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard’s less dovish remarks also triggered short covering of the US Dollar (USD) during late-Tuesday. However, sluggish prints of the US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales data kept exerting downside pressure on the greenback. While no policy change is expected to be offered at today’s RBNZ, growing support for easy monetary policy from the top-tier global central banks keep highlighting the market consensus of a dovish statement from the Kiwi central bank. Should there be an increased fear of another rate cut during 2019, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might have to liquidate the majority of its latest gains. Though, the momentum will be on the mercy of the US catalysts during the later part of the day when Durable Goods Orders can offer additional insights. Technical Analysis Sustained break of June 11 high enables the Kiwi pair to aim for monthly top surrounding 0.6682 ahead of targeting 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 0.6711 whereas 50-day SMA level of 0.6587 and May 27 peak near 0.6560 can entertain sellers if prices decline below 0.6610

U.S. stocks ended lower after remarks by Federal Reserve officials that dampen the rate-cut enthusiasm spurred up at the last meeting, leaving expecta

The Dow industrials ended nearly 180 points lower, down 0.7%.The S&P 500 finished 0.9% lower. the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5%.U.S. stocks ended lower after remarks by Federal Reserve officials that dampen the rate-cut enthusiasm spurred up at the last meeting, leaving expectations on the tale of a 50 basis point rate cut for July. Subsequently, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, DJIA, lost 0.7%, to 26,548, while the S&P 500 index lost  1% at 2,917, with the info tech sector losing 1.5% in the Nasdaq Composite. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a dovish FOMC member who had advocated for a rate cut, said he didn't endorse an aggressive cut. Then, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee was "grappling with is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional policy accommodation," in prepared remarks. He also stated that the amount of tariffs currently in place are not large enough to [directly] have an economic impact, but the uncertainty they bring is impacting the confidence of financial and agricultural markets. Consumer Confidence reading falls sharply As for U.S data, the Consumer Confidence reading fell sharply in June following a downward revision of May data as trade tensions take their toll. "The index which measures the current situation fell to its lowest level in 12 months, while the forward looking index was at its lowest level since January. New home sales data for May was also disappointing with lower interest rates having no impact. Home sales fell 7.8% in May following a 3.7% fall in April," analysts at ANZ bank explained.      DJIA levels The DJIA pulled back to the pivot at 26550 on the 4HR and 1HR chart, testing the 20 June low and backing away from the 3rd Oct 2018 highs, putting the 26951 Oct 2018 highs and the 27000 psychological level back over the horizon, for now. Below 26500, the prior sideways consolidating above the 61.8% Fibo retracement level of April to June swing highs and lows guard 25984 and then a 50% mean reversion of the current range to the 257940s.  

EUR/USD is trading above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) suggesting that the bear trend might be weakening. EUR/USD 4-hour chart The mar

EUR/USD is pulling back down in the near term.The next supports to watch are at 1.1340 and 1.1310 on the way down.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD is trading above its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs) suggesting that the bear trend might be weakening.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart The market broke below 1.1380 strong support, according to the Technical Confluences Indicator. The market should keep declining towards the next support at 1.1340 and 1.1310.
EUR/USD 30-minute chart EUR/USD is trading below 1.1380 resistance and the 50/100 SMAs suggesting a retracement down in the near term. According to the Technical Confluences Indicator, resistances are at the 1.1380 level and 1.1400 figure. Additional key levels  

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