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Bảng Tin tức Forex

Thứ hai, Tháng bảy 23, 2018

EUR/USD daily chart           Daily high: 1.1751 Daily low: 1.1689 Support Levels S1: 1.1653 S2: 1.1583 S3: 1.1540 Resistance Levels R1

The recent bullish attempt in EUR/USD has run out of legs in the key resistance area near 1.1750, matching last week’s tops.Spot, however, remains unable to clear the base of the daily cloud on a more sustainable fashion, which would allow for a run to the 1.1790/1.1800 band, or monthly peaks.Last Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ forced the pair to drop to the 1.1570 region, sparking a strong rebound afterwards exclusively on the back of USD-selling.On the downside, the 21-day/21-hour SMA offers string contention ahead of the recent lows in the 1.1575/70 band.Near term, spot remains neutral/bearish while below last Monday’s tops at 1.1790.EUR/USD daily chart          Daily high: 1.1751 Daily low: 1.1689Support LevelsS1: 1.1653 S2: 1.1583 S3: 1.1540Resistance LevelsR1: 1.1766 R2: 1.1809 R3: 1.1878

   •  The pair's goodish recovery move from YTD lows stalls near a confluence resistance, comprising of 200-hour SMA and 50% Fibonacci of the 1.3363-1

   •  The pair's goodish recovery move from YTD lows stalls near a confluence resistance, comprising of 200-hour SMA and 50% Fibonacci of the 1.3363-1.2957 recent downfall.   •  Meanwhile, technical indicators on the hourly chart continue to hold in positive territory and might attract some dip-buying interest at lower levels.    •  However, a convincing break below 1.3080-75 support area would mark the end of a corrective bounce and negate prospects for any further recovery in the near-term.GBP/USD 1-hourly chartSpot rate: 1.3120
Daily High: 1.3158
Trend: NeutralResistance
R1: 1.3158 (current day swing high)
R2: 1.3186 (20-day SMA)
R3: 1.3200 (round figure mark)Support
S1: 1.3085 (100-period SMA H1)
S2: 1.3037 (S1 daily pivot-point)
S3: 1.3000 (psychological round figure mark)
 

Germany’s Foreign Minister Maas is on the wires now, via Livesquawk, commenting on the consequences of Brexit. Key Headlines: ‘Brexit will have cons

Germany’s Foreign Minister Maas is on the wires now, via Livesquawk, commenting on the consequences of Brexit.Key Headlines:‘Brexit will have consequences on both sides of the channel’. ‘All efforts must aim toward an ordered Brexit’.

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that there is a very real risk of a Brexit ‘no deal’ by accident. A no

UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt was out on the wires in the last hour, saying that there is a very real risk of a Brexit ‘no deal’ by accident. A no deal Brexit would change British public’s attitudes to EU for a generation, he added further.

Eurozone’s recovery is continuing, although it has been weaker than expected at the start of the year, according to analysts at BNP Paribas. Key Quot

Eurozone’s recovery is continuing, although it has been weaker than expected at the start of the year, according to analysts at BNP Paribas.Key Quotes“Intra-EU trade builds with domestic demand, especially corporate investment.” “Inflation has rebounded in the wake of higher oil prices, but the core CPI trend remains subdued. Along with renewed tensions over sovereign debt spreads (Italy) this argues for the ECB to keep on buying until year end at least, and to maintain the status quo on key rates thereafter (first hike seen in Q4’19).”

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that they are going long on gold, as they expecting a weaker USD and reversal in positioning to buoy the yellow meta

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that they are going long on gold, as they expecting a weaker USD and reversal in positioning to buoy the yellow metal.Key Quotes“The USD's strong momentum is set to lose steam, as recent statements from President Trump accusing America's trading partners off currency manipulation and his break with tradition to criticize Fed policy provides a catalyst for fundamental factors.” “With the ECB QE unwinding on the way, we see the euro trend towards the low 1.20s later this year. This should help deflate the DXY currency index, which has been such a negative for gold of late.”“PositioningUSD optimism, trade and EM angst have prompted investors to shun gold, dragging net positioning near the lower bound as money mangers hold excessive shorts and are significantly underweight. In fact, further analysis suggests gold traders hold significant amount of dry-powder to increase their bullish bets, but are constrained on the short-side.”

EUR/USD extends its choppy-trend into the European session, although fails to take-out the fresh eight-day highs reached at 1.1750 earlier today. EUR

Volatile within range, but downside opening below 1.1694?Awaits fresh fundamental news for further trading impetus. EUR/USD extends its choppy-trend into the European session, although fails to take-out the fresh eight-day highs reached at 1.1750 earlier today.EUR/USD looks to test 5-DMA at 1.1694Over the last hours, the upside attempts in the spot fizzled out, as the bears fought back control to test the 5-DMA support at 1.1694, despite a pause in the US dollar recovery from nine-day lows versus its main competitors. The USD index drops -0.10% to 94.35, having faced stiff resistance near 94.50 region. The greenback remained weighed down by Trump’s comments on the Fed’s rate hike plans and fx manipulation. However, the losses may remain capped, as the common currency continues to derive support from a rally in the 10-year German bond yields. The 10-year German yields climb to fresh five-week highs at 0.393%, up +4.10% on the day. Also, the risk-off trades in the European equities combined with escalating trade war tensions collaborate to the upbeat tone around the funding currency, the EUR. In the day ahead, the major will take fresh cues from the US existing home sales data and Eurozone consumer confidence figures for further momentum. Meanwhile, the USD dynamics and risk trends will continue to influence the prices amid a data-empty EUR calendar.EUR/USD Technical LevelsSlobodan Drvenica at Windsor Brokers noted, “extended weakness of the dollar keeps the single currency supported, along with bullish techs, but bulls need close in the cloud (cloud base lays at 1.1724) and break above 1.1754 (triangle resistance), to generate a bullish signal for recovery extension. Risk of recovery stall exists as very thick falling daily cloud continues to weigh heavily and has already capped several attempts to break higher. Broken 55SMA (1.1708) holds today’s action and marks pivotal support, loss of which would generate an initial bearish signal. Res: 1.1754; 1.1790; 1.1848; 1.1873. Sup: 1.1708; 1.1686; 1.1663; 1.1621.”

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index rose from previous 2.1% to 2.4% in June

   •  Friday’s goodish rebound from closer to YTD lows quickly fizzles out.     •  Subdued commodity prices fail to provide any fresh bullish impetus

   •  Friday’s goodish rebound from closer to YTD lows quickly fizzles out. 
   •  Subdued commodity prices fail to provide any fresh bullish impetus.
   •  Traders even shrugged off the ongoing USD retracement slide. 
The AUD/USD pair surrendered early modest gains and is currently placed at the lower end of its daily trading range, around the 0.7415-10 region. The pair struggled to build on Friday's strong rebound from closer to YTD lows and once again met with some fresh supply near the 0.7440 horizontal zone, which has been acting as a stiff resistance over the past one-week or so.  The US Dollar continues to be weighed down by the US President Donald Trump's comments on Friday, criticizing the recent greenback strength, albeit renewed trade war fears kept a lid on any strong follow-through up-move for the China-proxy Australian Dollar.  Meanwhile, a mildly weaker tone around commodity space also did little to provide any meaningful boost to commodity-linked currencies - like the Aussie and further collaborated to the pair's modest retracement of around 30-pips from Asian session tops. Technical AnalysisLooking at the broader picture, the pair has been oscillating within a broader trading range over the past six weeks or so and any meaningful recovery attempts have been sold into, clearly indicating additional near-term bearish potential. Moreover, the pair's inability to register any meaningful recovery and a consolidative price action below the key 0.7500 psychological mark further reinforce the expectations that the near-term downfall might still be far from over.  However, it would be prudent to wait for a decisive break through the mentioned range before positioning for the pair's next leg of directional move. Spot rate: 0.7412
Daily High: 0.7438
Trend: SidewaysResistance
R1: 0.7438 (current day swing high)
R2: 0.7478 (50-day SMA)
R3: 0.7500 (psychological round figure mark)Support
S1: 0.7387 (100-period SMA H1)
S2: 0.7344 (S1 daily pivot-point)
S3: 0.7315-10 (recent swing lows)

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets showed open interest decrease by more than 3.3K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 201,709 co

CME Group’s advanced data for GBP futures markets showed open interest decrease by more than 3.3K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 201,709 contracts. Volume followed suit, down by around 9.5K contracts.GBP/USD still vulnerable below 1.3300, 55D-SMACable is correcting higher after hitting fresh yearly lows in the proximity of 1.2950 last Thursday, always on the back of renewed USD-selling. The up move, however, has been accompanied by diminishing volume and open interest, hinting at the likeliness that further recovery could lack of legs.

China’s economic growth will decelerate in 2018 and despite the slowdown, the central bank will have to continue to act to encourage the deleveraging

China’s economic growth will decelerate in 2018 and despite the slowdown, the central bank will have to continue to act to encourage the deleveraging of financial institutions and corporates and reduce financial instability risks, suggests the research team at BNP Paribas.Key Quotes“Fiscal policy should remain expansionist.” “The outlook for exports and household spending is rather favourable in the short term, but the tightening of domestic credit conditions, restructuring measures in the industry and less buoyant property market will weigh on economic activity.”

The pair’s near term outlook has now shifted to neutral from bearish, informed FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The weak daily

The pair’s near term outlook has now shifted to neutral from bearish, informed FX Strategists at UOB Group.Key Quotes24-hour view: “The weak daily closing in NY last Friday and the weak opening in Sydney this morning does not bode well for USD. The pressure is clearly on the downside and the 110.75 support is likely to be tested. Further down, the next support is at 110.35 and this level could be out of reach for now. On the upside, 111.80 is expected to be strong enough to cap any intraday USD strength (minor resistance is at 111.50)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “In our last update on 13 Jul (spot at 112.55), we were bullish USD and expected a move to 113.40. The bullish phase ended quickly as USD plummeted last Friday and closed sharply lower (closed at 111.39, -0.94%). The pressure has shifted quickly to the downside and while the outlook for USD is deemed as neutral for now, a test of the month-to-date low near 110.25 would not be surprising. On the upside, only a move 111.80 would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased”.

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, Cable could attempt a visit to levels above 1.3300 the figure. Key Quotes

In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, Cable could attempt a visit to levels above 1.3300 the figure.Key QuotesGBP/USD’s low last week of 1.2957 was accompanied with a divergence of the daily RSI. Directly below here lies Fibonacci support at 1.2918 (50% retracement of the move up from 2016) and we are seeing some profit taking here. We would allow for recovery to the 1.3302/07 55 day ma and channel resistance”. “Above 1.3363, the 9 th July high would imply a deeper corrective phase to the 1.3470/1.3500 area and there is scope for the 1.3585 200 day ma”.

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets, investors added more than 7.3K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 492,003 contracts. I

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets, investors added more than 7.3K contracts on Friday from Thursday’s final 492,003 contracts. In the same line, volume increased by around 10K contracts.EUR/USD could target 1.1790The recent recovery in EUR/USD has been on the back of rising both open interest and volume, a bullish scenario that could motivate spot to attempt a move to recent peaks in the 1.1790 region. Gains beyond this point appear unlikely, however, as the Fed-ECB policy divergence and the USD carry appeal remain poised to favour the buck.

Greece Current Account (YoY): €0.191B (May) vs €-1.344B

   •  Fails to capitalize on last week’s goodish rebound from YTD lows.    •  Traders shrug USD selling bias and reviving safe-haven demand.     • 

   •  Fails to capitalize on last week’s goodish rebound from YTD lows.
   •  Traders shrug USD selling bias and reviving safe-haven demand. 
   •  Fed rate hike prospects keep a lid on any meaningful up-move.
Gold struggled to build on last week's goodish rebound from over one-year lows and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session on Monday. Broad-based US Dollar sell-off, triggered by the US President Donald Trump's discomfort over the recent strength, underpinned the dollar-denominated and prompted some short-covering move on Friday. Trump also stepped up his rhetoric on the trade spat, saying that he was prepared to put tariffs on all $505 billion in Chinese goods imported to the US, and provided an additional boost to the precious metal's safe-haven appeal. Market participants, however, remain convinced that the Fed will stick to its plan to raise interest rates at least two more time in 2018. The same was evident from the US Treasury bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding around the three-week high level of 2.89% and now contributing towards capping any strong up-move for the non-yielding yellow metal.  The commodity quickly reversed an Asian session spike to an intraday high level of $1235 and the price-action clearly seems to suggest that the near-term bearish pressure might still far from being over. Hence, any meaningful up-move might be looked upon as an opportunity to initiate some fresh bearish positions amid absent market moving economic releases.Technical levels to watchA subsequent weakness back below $1227 level is likely to accelerate the fall towards $1223-22 support area, which if broken will reinforce the bearish outlook and drag the metal back towards $1215 level en-route YTD low level of $1211. On the flip side, momentum beyond session tops ($1235 area) is likely to confront fresh supply near the $1240 region, above which a fresh bout of short-covering could lift the commodity further towards $1247 strong horizontal resistance.
 

According to the CFTC weekly report (W/E July 17), speculators have continued to shun gold amid a resilient USD and emerging market FX angst as the PB

According to the CFTC weekly report (W/E July 17), speculators have continued to shun gold amid a resilient USD and emerging market FX angst as the PBoC continues to allow the CNY to depreciate to offset economic headwinds in China, notes the research team at TD Securities.Key Quotes“In response, money managers continued to reduce their net length, bringing net positioning near the lows as they continued to aggressively add to their shorts and cover some longs this week. However, we believe the dollar's best days are behind us, and expect that Presidential talk of currency manipulation could be the catalyst needed for a robust reversal.” “President Trump's announcement of an additional $200 billion worth of proposed tariffs against China gave copper and its base metal peers another jolt lower last week. Indeed the latest round of trade fears saw specs lightening their exposure once again, with the red metal touching below $6000/t late this week.” “WTI crude oil specs reduced net length again this past week, liquidating more longs relative to shorts that were covered. A host of bearish headlines focused on a return of Libyan supply, Saudi offering more crude to Asian buyers and potential SPR sales, along with talk of Iran sanction relief, all culminated in crude trading some $8/bbl lower from highs just above $75/bbl.”

Carla Slim, Economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that they see three reasons for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to hike the ke

Carla Slim, Economist at Standard Chartered, suggests that they see three reasons for the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to hike the key policy rate – the repo rate – again at the 24 July Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.Key Quotes“This would follow a 500bps total increase since the start of the year. We raise our 2018 year-end policy forecast to 19.75% (from 18.25%) to factor in a tighter CBRT stance.” “Inflation: The June CPI print highlighted most of Turkey’s traditional inflationary drivers, which pushed inflation higher to 15.4% y/y: food inflation rose to 19% from 11% in May and higher global oil prices pushed utility and transport prices higher to 12% and 24%, respectively.” “External sector: Turkey still faces external vulnerability pressures. The May current-account deficit rose to USD 5.9bn (up 9% y/y) and was financed largely by a reserve drawdown and by unidentified inflows (net errors and omission). Net inflows through the financial account were close to zero. The last credit rating downgrade by Fitch, with a negative outlook, will likely weigh further on investor sentiment.” “Investor concerns: While we think comments by Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak are encouraging, they will likely need to be complemented by CBRT actions to stem concerns relating to central bank independence.”

   •  The pair's early uptick met with some fresh supply near 50-hour SMA, with bears now looking to extend last week's retracement slide from over fo

   •  The pair's early uptick met with some fresh supply near 50-hour SMA, with bears now looking to extend last week's retracement slide from over four-month tops.    •  Short-term technical indicators are gradually picking up negative momentum and a follow-through weakness below 100-hour SMA will reinforce prospects for additional weakness.    •  Only a sustained move beyond daily swing high might negate the negative outlook and pave the way for the resumption of the prior appreciating move. EUR/GBP 1-hourly chartSpot rate: 0.8920
Daily High: 0.8936
Trend: Short-term bearishResistance
R1: 0.8636 (current day swing high)
R2: 0.8975 (R2 daily pivot-point)
R3: 0.9000 (psychological round figure mark)Support
S1: 0.8910 (S1 daily pivot-point)
S2: 0.8874 (last Thursday's swing low)
S3: 0.8820 (200-day SMA)
 

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that in Europe the only data scheduled today is the advance July consumer confidence reading for the Eurozone. Key

Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that in Europe the only data scheduled today is the advance July consumer confidence reading for the Eurozone.Key Quotes“In the US we'll get the June Chicago Fed National activity index print followed by June existing home sales data. Away from that, the BoE's Broadbent will speak to the Society of Professional Economists in London in the evening. Meanwhile, Alphabet will releasing earnings.”“Tuesday: The big data focus on Tuesday will be the release of the flash July PMIs across the globe. Overnight we'll get the manufacturing PMI for Japan followed by the manufacturing, services and composite PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone. The US PMIs will then be out in the afternoon. Away from that data, we'll also get July business and manufacturing confidence prints for France, CBI selling prices data for the UK for July, and the July Richmond Fed manufacturing index in the US. Earnings wise, Verizon, AT&T and Harley Davidson are due to report.”“Wednesday: There is no data of note in Asia on Wednesday. However in Europe we'll get June PPI for France along with the July IFO survey for Germany, July CBI retailing reported sales in the UK and M3 money supply data for the Euro area for June. In the US, June new home sales is the only data due out. Away from the data, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and the EU trade chief Cecilia Malmstrom will meet with US President Donald Trump to discuss averting a new round of U.S. tariffs on European car imports. Key earnings releases for the day include Coca-Cola, General Motors, Facebook and Boeing.”“Thursday: All eyes on Thursday will be on the ECB monetary policy meeting which beings at 12.45pm BST. Data-wise, overnight we will get June services PPI for Japan. After that we'll get the August consumer confidence print for Germany and July consumer confidence data for France. In the US, the June advance goods trade balance, preliminary June wholesale inventories, June retail inventories, preliminary June durable goods and capital goods orders and the July Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity reading are all slated for release. Away from the data, the WTO will hold a General Council meeting to cover issues related to the US-China trade conflict, while notable earnings releases for the day include Intel and Amazon.”“Friday: Much of the focus on Friday will be on the advance Q2 GDP reading for the US in the afternoon. Prior to that, we'll get June industrial profits data for China followed by the release of June consumer spending data and the advance Q2 GDP reading for France. In the US, we will also get the final July University of Michigan survey data. Finally, Exxon Mobil and Chevron will report earnings.”  

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the pair’s stance remains neutral although it could trade at a higher range in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, the pair’s stance remains neutral although it could trade at a higher range in the next weeks.Key Quotes24-hour view: “While the sharp rise in EUR appears incomplete and further advance is expected from here, the month-to-date high at 1.1790 is likely out of reach for now (1.1760 is already quite a strong level). That said, only a move back below 1.1675 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased (minor support is at 1.1700)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “In our last update on 13 Jul (spot at 1.1665), we expected EUR to trade sideways within a 1.1590/1.1760 range. EUR subsequently dipped slightly below the bottom of the expected consolidation range last Thursday (19 July) but rebounded quickly after touching a low of 1.1572. The strong bounce is approaching the top of the range and improved momentum indicators suggest that a move above 1.1760 would not be surprising. That said, any EUR strength is viewed as part of a higher 1.1640/1.1850 range and not the start of a major bullish reversal”.

Reuters reports comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, headlining the US-China trade spat, in light of the latest Trump’s comments. Key Points:

Reuters reports comments from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, headlining the US-China trade spat, in light of the latest Trump’s comments.Key Points:Hopes the US will remain level-headed and resolve issues in a reasonable manner. Threats and intimidation on trade will never work on China.

   •  Positive US bond yields help ease USD bearish pressure on Monday.    •  Softer oil prices weigh on Loonie and lend some additional support. Th

   •  Positive US bond yields help ease USD bearish pressure on Monday.
   •  Softer oil prices weigh on Loonie and lend some additional support.
The USD/CAD pair managed to rebound around 20-25 pips from Asian session lows and is currently placed at the top end of its consolidative trading range.  Canadian macro releases - upbeat retail sales data and mostly in-line consumer inflation figures, prompted some aggressive selling on Friday and dragged the pair sharply lower from three-week tops. This coupled with a broad-based US Dollar weakness exerted some additional downward pressure and further collaborated to the pair's fall of nearly 175-pips from the vicinity of 1.3300 handle. The USD remained on the defensive at the start of a new trading week and was being weighed down by the US President Donald Trump's comments. During an interview with CNBC, Trump said that he was prepared to put tariffs on all $505 billion in Chinese goods imported to the US and also criticized the Fed' monetary tightening.  However, a modest uptick around the US Treasury bond yields extended some support to the greenback. This along with a mildly softer tone around crude oil prices, which tends to undermine demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie helped ease the bearish pressure, at least for the time being.  Currently trading around the 1.3135-40 region, traders now look forward to the release of existing home sales data for some short-term trading impetus. Technical levels to watchAny subsequent up-move is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 1.3165 level, above which the pair could make an attempt towards reclaiming the 1.3200 handle. On the flip side, the 1.3115-10 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, which if broken might accelerate the fall further towards 50-day SMA support near the 1.3075-70 region.
 

Spot failed to sustain the up move beyond 1.0000 the figure and is now focused on the 0.9886 level, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Anal

Spot failed to sustain the up move beyond 1.0000 the figure and is now focused on the 0.9886 level, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesUSD/CHF failed to maintain a foothold above the psychological resistance at 1.0000 and on Friday again eased back to the 55 day ma at .9938, which has now been eroded and the pendulum has swung to the down side. Attention is on the .9886 support line and last weeks low at .9858, the 9 th July low. Failure here will signal a slide towards .9753/24 (38.2% retracement + 200 day ma) where ideally we will see the market stabilise”. “It stays offered below 1.00, this guards the May high at 1.0057. The May high at 1.0057 guards the 1.0093/1.0108 April 2017 high and 78.6% retracement. This is seen as the last defence for 1.0343, the 2016 high. This should prove tough resistance”.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), seems to have found some decent support in the 94.20 region for the time being. US Dollar looks

The index looks to rebound beyond the 94.35/40 band.Yields of the US 10-year note climb to the 2.90% neighbourhood.US New Home Sales the only release of note later today.The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), seems to have found some decent support in the 94.20 region for the time being.US Dollar looks to TrumpAfter two consecutive daily pullbacks, the index is now regaining some ground after meeting contention in the 94.25/20 band, where lies the 55-day sma. The down move in the buck came in response to last week’s comments by President Trump, when he somewhat criticized the Fed’s tightening policy and voiced (once again) against the strong currency. On the opposite direction, yields of the key US 10-year note are now extending the upside and are challenging the key 2.90% region, all amidst the US-China trade effervescence and US politics as drivers. News from the speculative community noted USD net longs climbed to 2018 tops in the week to July, according to the latest CFTC report. In the US data space, New Home Sales for the month of June will be the sole publication later today.US Dollar relevant levelsAs of writing the index is down 0.11% at 94.36 and a breach of 94.23 (55-day sma) would target 94.20 (38.2% Fibo of 2017-2018 drop) en route to 93.71 (low Jul.9). On the upside, the next hurdle is located at 94.71 (10-day sma) seconded by 95.53 (high Jun.28) and finally 95.65 (2018 high Jul.19).

CNN quoted an official with close knowledge of North Korea's position on the matter, citing that the North urges the US to make a "bold move" and agre

CNN quoted an official with close knowledge of North Korea's position on the matter, citing that the North urges the US to make a "bold move" and agree to a peace treaty before denuclearization, as the negotiations between both the countries continue. According to the official, North Korea is putting pressure on the administration of US President Donald Trump to begin lifting sanctions, believing they have done "so much" by freezing nuclear and missile testing, destroying one of their nuclear sites, and facilitating the upcoming repatriation of US service members' war remains.

According to the latest the report published by consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the UK households could be worse off by up to GBP 960 each year should B

According to the latest the report published by consulting firm Oliver Wyman, the UK households could be worse off by up to GBP 960 each year should Britain quit the European Union (EU), Reuters reports.Key Highlights:“Households will face higher prices as they absorb costs from labor changes, tariffs, and red tape, it said, whilst consumer businesses could see profits slump by 1-4 percent. The report focused on five different Brexit scenarios, where the size of the annual economic impact would vary between 245 and 960 pounds depending on whether the UK avoids EU tariffs.”

In recent months, both survey and hard data have been pointing to slowing growth in Germany, according to analysts at BNP Paribas. Key Quotes “In Ju

In recent months, both survey and hard data have been pointing to slowing growth in Germany, according to analysts at BNP Paribas.Key Quotes“In June, the IFO climate index declined again, as companies reported a further deterioration of the actual business situation. However, signs of stabilisation can be observed.” “In June, the PMI composite index of manufacturing and services actually strengthened more than expected. Nevertheless, the risks remain elevated as the German car industry is a possible target in the US-EU trade conflict.” “Consumers are shrugging of these geo-political worries and the strong rise in consumer prices, largely due to petrol prices. They are more concentrating on the good labour market situation and substantial gains in purchasing power following recent generous pay deals.”

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that this week’s main highlights are manufacturing PMIs tomorrow, Aussie CPI and the German IFO survey Wednesday, US dura

Analysts at Rabobank suggest that this week’s main highlights are manufacturing PMIs tomorrow, Aussie CPI and the German IFO survey Wednesday, US durable goods Thursday, and then Q2 US GDP on Friday.Key Quotes“The GDP number in particular could be extremely interesting given the expectations of a 4.3% print, which while no doubt representing the near-term high-water mark of Trumpety-Trumpism, would also likely see further yield-curve flattening and USD strength.”

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the pair’s outlook remains mixed in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The strong rebound in GBP last Friday

FX Strategists at UOB Group noted the pair’s outlook remains mixed in the near term.Key Quotes24-hour view: “The strong rebound in GBP last Friday appears to be running ahead of itself. That said, there is scope for the recovery to extend higher even though a clear break above 1.3210 would come as a surprise (1.3180 is already a relatively strong resistance). Support is at 1.3110 followed by 1.3080”. Next 1-3 weeks: “While GBP broke the major 1.3040/50 support zone last week, the decline was short-lived as it staged a robust rebound after touching a low of 1.2958 last Thursday (19 Jul). The choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook and we continue to hold a neutral stance for now and expect GBP to continue to trade in a relatively volatile manner, likely within a broad 1.3050/1.3250 range”.

Turkey Consumer Confidence up to 73.1 in July from previous 70.3

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, further declines are likely while below 1.1790. Key Quotes “EUR/USD last w

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, further declines are likely while below 1.1790.Key QuotesEUR/USD last week eased back from the 55 day ma at 1.1711, but this is being eroded today and the market is currently sidelined and possibly basing. For now we will assume while below 1.1790, a downside bias remains, however the market is more or less side lined currently. Attention stays on the 1.1510/08 recent lows and below here lies the 200 week ma at 1.1379”. “A recovery above 1.1790 will target 1.1855. Above 1.1855 we look for a deeper retracement to the 1.1937 55 week ma, with scope for the 1.1981 200 day ma, where we suspect that it will fail”.

   •  Trump’s comments keep exerting downward pressure on the USD.    •  Fed rate hike expectations might help limit further downside. The USD/JPY p

   •  Trump’s comments keep exerting downward pressure on the USD.
   •  Fed rate hike expectations might help limit further downside.
The USD/JPY pair remained under some selling pressure at the start of a new trading week and fell below the 111.00 handle, or 1-1/2 week lows. The pair extended last week's sharp retracement slide from six-month tops and continued losing ground for the third consecutive session amid persistent US Dollar weakness, triggered by the US President Donald Trump's comments.  During an interview with CNBC, Trump upped the ante on the trade war front and said that he was prepared to impose tariffs on all $505 billion in Chinese goods imported to the US. Trump also criticized the Fed's monetary tightening and showed displeasure over the recent USD strength.  Market participants, however, remain convinced that the Fed will stick to its plan to raise interest rates at least two more time in 2018 and the same was evident from the US Treasury bond yields. In fact, the benchmark 10-year yield held around the three-week high level of 2.89% and might now contribute towards limiting further downside. Technical outlook Omkar Godbole, Analyst and Editor at FXStreet writes: “A close below the rising trendline would only validate the bearish Doji reversal and indicate the rally from the March 26 low od 104.63 has ended. As a result, the spot risks falling to 110.52 (ascending 50-day MA) and may test demand at the 200-day MA support of 110.10.” “A strong rebound from the trendline support would and a close above 111.40 (May 21 high) would shift risk in favor of a re-test of 113.17 (Thursday's high),” he adds further.
 

The latest data released by the China Customs on Monday showed that the value of China’s total trade with North Korea fell 56.1 percent in the first h

The latest data released by the China Customs on Monday showed that the value of China’s total trade with North Korea fell 56.1 percent in the first half of this year to USD 1.1 billion.Key Highlights (via Reuters):“Imports from North Korea dropped sharply by 87.9 percent on-year to $107.3 million, while exports were down 38.8 percent to $997.3 million. China’s June total trade with North Korea was valued at $217.16 million, down from $230.87 million in the previous month. China’s exports to North Korea were $204.19 million in June while imports from North Korea were $12.97 million, the data showed.”

Analysts at ANZ point out that New Zealand’s June quarter inflation was stronger than they expected at both the headline level and in spirit, with mea

Analysts at ANZ point out that New Zealand’s June quarter inflation was stronger than they expected at both the headline level and in spirit, with measures of core inflation clearly ticking a little higher.Key Quotes“With that in mind, now is a useful time to revisit where we see inflation heading from here and the key judgements underpinning this view. We expect headline inflation to gradually pick up to 2% by Q2 2019. In light of the Q2 surprise, this is one quarter earlier than our previous forecasts.” “Underpinning this is an ongoing gradual acceleration in non-tradables inflation, and some near-term strength in tradables inflation. On balance, the risks to this outlook are skewed a little to the upside in the near term, but to the downside in the medium term, reflecting a deceleration in economic activity. This week is quiet on the data front, with just trade data and ANZ Consumer Confidence out.”

EUR/USD navigates a narrow range at the beginning of the week, so far managing well to keep business above the key 1.1700 handle. EUR/USD looks to US

The pair is up smalls and gyrates around the 1.1720 region.The greenback finds some support in the 94.20 area.Markets’ focus remain on Trump and trade disputes.EUR/USD navigates a narrow range at the beginning of the week, so far managing well to keep business above the key 1.1700 handle.EUR/USD looks to USD-dynamics for directionSpot alternates gains with losses on Monday against the backdrop of a flat performance around the greenback. Recent comments by President Trump dented the positive sentiment that has been surrounding the buck in past sessions, motivating the US Dollar Index to recede from YTD tops in the 95.60/65 band. In addition, it appears EUR/USD has formed a base just above 11-month lows around 1.1500 the figure, retaking both key barriers at 1.1600 and 1.1700 helped by short covering and the already mentioned USD weakness. On the positioning front, EUR speculative net longs retreated to yearly lows in the week ended on July 17, as per the latest CFTC report. Looking ahead, US Existing Home Sales will be the sole event today, although market participants should remain focused on the US-China trade spat and occasional Trump headlines.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.09% at 1.1731 facing the next hurdle at 1.1748 (high Jul.17) followed by 1.1792 (high Jul.9) and finally 1.1853 (high Jun.14). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.1690 (10-day sma) would target 1.1676 (21-day sma) and then 1.1575 (low Jul.19).

Italy's Head of the budget committee at the Lower House Claudio Borghi was on the wires earlier today, via Republicca, commenting on the European Unio

Italy's Head of the budget committee at the Lower House Claudio Borghi was on the wires earlier today, via Republicca, commenting on the European Union’s (EU) budget rule.Key Headlines:Italy needs expansive economic policies. Italian companies want lower tax burden. Asks why Italy can't overlook the EU budget rule. Separately, Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Salvini was reported, as saying that he urges the EU to review the budget rules.

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the markets will digest the G20 Finance minister meeting over the weekend and not least comments on the currency

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that the markets will digest the G20 Finance minister meeting over the weekend and not least comments on the currency front after Trump's tweets criticising the strengthening of the USD and repeating that China and the EU have been 'manipulating their currencies.Key Quotes“Trump seems increasingly keen on taking on a big battle with the EU and China and it seems more evident that the US-China trade war is here to stay for some time. Tariffs on autos could still hit the EU (not least Germany).” “On the data front, we have euro consumer confidence and US existing home sales today. Especially, US home sales may attract some attention after weak housing starts and permits last week flagged a potential housing slowdown.” “For the rest of the week, we have euro Flash PMI and German Ifo (Tuesday), the ECB rate meeting, US durable goods orders (Thursday) and Q2 GDP for the US (Friday).”  

The GBP/USD major pair is shifting its feet near 1.3140 as GBP traders await fresh headlines concerning Brexit ahead of a quiet Monday on the calendar

Sterling set to defend the early session's mild gains as London traders get set to digest the latest Brexit rejection from Europe.A limited economic calendar this week will be seeing Brexit headlines take center stage once again.The GBP/USD major pair is shifting its feet near 1.3140 as GBP traders await fresh headlines concerning Brexit ahead of a quiet Monday on the calendar. The latest Brexit proposal from Prime Minister Theresa May, after much bickering and several close votes within the UK parliament, has been flatly rejected by EU leaders in Brussels, as the 'third option' Brexit proposal would require a sacrifice of European autonomy, a move that is held unacceptable by Brexit negotiators on the EU side. Under PM May's hopeful proposal, the City of London would enjoy unfettered access to European financial markets, a privilege that the European Council maintains strict control over, and intends to retain the right to withdraw that access at any time. With the latest Brexit proposal dead in the water, Pound traders will be looking for reactions from the UK government through Monday, and will be waiting to see the Prime Minister's next move in an ongoing negotiation between EU leadership in Brussels and hard-line leavers within the UK which see little middle ground being reached between the two sides. It's going to be a quiet Monday on the economic calendar, with only a speech from the Bank of England's (BoE) MPC Member Haldane due later in the day at 17:00 GMT, and the rest of the week is looking equally inconsequential, with little meaningful data slated for the British Sterling, which may be a welcome reprieve after bulls got hammered in last week's sell-off, pushed further into the red by a raft of disappointing economic figures for the UK's economy, which pushes the chances of an already-dubious rate hike from the BoE out even further.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisThe Sterling-Dollar's hourly candles show a bearish divergence between current swing highs and the Relative Strength Index, while hourly Stochastics have rolled over into sell signals and are beginning to drift back into short-side territory. With weakening intraday technicals coming in for a landing ahead of Monday's London market session, key resistance from the 200-hour moving average near 1.3155 can be expected to hold for the next little while.GBP/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  1.3136 Relative change:  0.10% High:  1.3156 Low:  1.3114     Trend: Flat to bearish     Support 1:  1.3114 (current day low) Support 2:  1.3080 (38.2% Fibo retracement level) Support 3:  1.2994 (Friday low)     Resistance 1:  1.3156 (current day high) Resistance 2:  1.3235 (R2 daily pivot) Resistance 3:  1.3267 (July 17th swing high)  

Denmark Consumer Confidence dipped from previous 10.6 to 9.7 in July

China’s Securities Times is out with the latest headlines, citing that China is considering easing limits in stock index futures trading, Livesquawk r

China’s Securities Times is out with the latest headlines, citing that China is considering easing limits in stock index futures trading, Livesquawk reports. No further details have been mentioned on the same.Key Notes:Asian stocks back in the red on trade fears, protectionism sapping risk appetite Monday's continuation of trade angst sees Japan's Nikkei 225 index down around 1.3% so far, while the Tokyo Topix index is relatively unharmed at -0.14%; Shanghai's CSI 300 index is in the red for -0.15%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is down -0.2% for Monday.  USD/CNY fades drop to 6.74, focus on today’s close The oversold Chinese Yuan extended Friday’s gains in early trade, but the resulting dip in the USD/CNY to 6.74 was short-lived. 

Analysts at Nomura expect the BEA to report this Friday that US real GDP increased at an annualized pace of 4.6% q-o-q in Q2. Key Quotes “Part of th

Analysts at Nomura expect the BEA to report this Friday that US real GDP increased at an annualized pace of 4.6% q-o-q in Q2.Key Quotes“Part of the strength is related to a sharp pickup in exports as imports slowed. However, a substantial amount of the firming in Q2 stems from accelerating consumer spending.” “We expect GDP growth to moderate for the rest of this year but to remain well-above potential as rising federal spending and tax cuts continue to propel the US economy.” “Incoming data last week indicates strong momentum heading into Q3, albeit at a level slightly below that of Q2. Industrial production rebounded in June as factory activity picked up during the month. In addition, early indicators on manufacturer sentiment during July point to continued growth from the manufacturing sector despite some concern in the forward looking indicators. On the downside, core (“control”) retail sales moderated somewhat in June despite overall retail sales increasing at a solid pace.”

FX option expiries for July 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1570 560m 1.1600 642m 1.1650 5

FX option expiries for July 23 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1570 560m 1.1600 642m 1.1650 519m 1.1700 2.1bn 1.1750 1.1bn GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3060 209m 1.3115 252m 1.3260 400m USD/JPY: USD amounts 109.75 440m 109.90 400m 111.70 745m 112.00 570m 112.50 895m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7355 556m

The AUD/USD is chained to recent highs set late last week, cycling near 0.7430 as traders look down the barrel of a week that sees a thin data schedul

The Aussie's bull-run from Friday appears over as the AUD/USD sheds its upwards momentum with traders awaiting fresh trade headlines.A weak economic calendar will have AUD traders looking forward to Wednesday's Aussie CPI figures.The AUD/USD is chained to recent highs set late last week, cycling near 0.7430 as traders look down the barrel of a week that sees a thin data schedule and tensions on the rise across the globe with trade spats continuing to simmer. Last week saw the Aussie whipping against the US Dollar, dropping into consecutive fresh lows before rebounding into near-term highs, and Friday's last bullish push on USD selling may face new challenges in the upcoming trading week as traders grapple with a thin economic calendar which will be leaving broader markets exposed to swings in market sentiment as the US-China trade war continues to edge closer to a new level, with further tariffs being promised by both sides and little action seen at the negotiation table. Wednesday will be delivering Consumer Price Index figures for Australia, and the median market forecast is expecting a mild tick higher from 0.4% to 0.% for the headline q/q CPI reading for Q2 2018, but a lack of meaningful data before then will be seeing the AUD likely to be left in a weak position should wider fx markets resume bidding up the Greenback.AUD/USD Technical AnalysisWith the pair hesitating at medium-term resistance and bulls lacking the conviction to push the AUD/USD past the 0.7450 level, traders should keep an eye out for a fresh bearish slant to market action to bring the Aussie back down against the US Dollar as fx markets continue to be dominated by moves in the Greenback. Aussie bulls will be looking to mount a strong push from the 38.2% Fibo retracement level nearby, though a lack of momentum for the new week has the advantage going to sellers.AUD/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  0.7426 Relative change:  0.16% High:  0.7436 Low:  0.7414     Trend:  Flat to bearish Support 1:  0.7391 (38.2% Fibo retracement level) Support 2:  0.7353 (common constraint level) Support 3:  0.7317 (previous week low)     Resistance 1:  0.7440 (July 19th swing high) Resistance 2:  0.7483 (July high) Resistance 3:  0.7504 (R2 daily pivot)

Hourly chart Current price: $1,232 Daily High: $1,235 Daily Low: $1,230 Trend: Pullback to be short-lived Resistance R1: $1,235 (200-hour movi

Gold's corrective rally from the 12-month low of $1,211 is running out of steam.The yellow metal has created a rising wedge-like pattern on the hourly chart and the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI) has rolled over from the overbought territory.Hence, a minor price pullback could be in the offing before technical recovery gains more ground, as indicated by the bullish price-RSI and bullish price-stochastic divergence.Hourly chartCurrent price: $1,232 Daily High: $1,235 Daily Low: $1,230 Trend: Pullback to be short-livedResistanceR1: $1,235 (200-hour moving average) R2: $1,238 (July 3 low) R3: $1,245 (July 17 high hurdle on the hourly chart)SupportS1: $1,227 (100-hour moving average) S2: $1,224.50 (rising wedge support + 50-hour moving average) S3: $1,211 (July 19 low)

Risk-off sentiment emerged the underlying theme in Asia at the start of a new week, with G20 meetings concluding over differences on the trade issues

Risk-off sentiment emerged the underlying theme in Asia at the start of a new week, with G20 meetings concluding over differences on the trade issues while the renewed political risks between Iran and the US propped following Iran’s President Rouhani warning to the US. More so, Trump’s comments on fx manipulation also fuelled the risks of a trade war now converting into a currency war.  Markets reacted with a sense of cautious, as the safe-havens such as the Yen, gold and Swiss franc were heavily underpinned at the expense of the risk assets – Asian equities, oil prices and Treasury yields. The US dollar fell to a fresh nine-day low at 94.21 against its major peers, lifting the sentiment around most majors. The Yen outperformed amid risk-aversion and the latest BoJ speculation that the central bank may tweak its monetary policy stimulus at its monetary policy meeting scheduled next week. The USD/JPY pair dropped to three-week lows at 110.75 before bouncing-back towards the 111 handle. The Antipodeans traded with mild gains, as the upside remained capped amid reduced appetite for risk.Main topics in AsiaWeekend headlines: Brexit plan proposal rejected by EU & G20 risks to growth heightened due to trade and geopolitical tensions European Council rep: No need to remove tariffs for EU-US talks - Reuters Iran's Rouhani warns Trump that war with Iran is "mother of all wars" - Reuters China Commerce Ministry to launch anti-dumping probe BoJ: No bids tendered for Monday’s fixed-rate operation China central bank unexpectedly injects CNY 502 billion – Reuters Trump to Rouhani: ‘Never, ever threaten the US again or you will suffer consequences’ Asian stocks back in the red on trade fears, protectionism sapping risk appetite New Zealand’s acting PM Peters: Inflation not sole issue facing the economyKey Focus aheadWe have a quiet start to the week, in terms of the economic releases, with absolutely no macro data reported in the Asian session. The EUR calendar also follows suit and hence, the focus remains on the German Bundesbank (Buba) monthly report. Meanwhile, the NA session is expected to be relatively busy, as the Canadian wholesales will be reported at 1230 GMT, followed by the Eurozone consumer confidence and the US existing home sales data dropping in at 1400 GMT. However, the Bank of England (BOE) MPC member Broadbent’s speech will hog the limelight in the NY session today. Broadbent is due to speak about the history and future of quantitative easing at the Society of Professional Economists, in London. EUR/USD: Put demand eases ahead of the ECB The demand for the EUR puts has dropped sharply in the run-up to this Thursday’s European Central bank (ECB) rate decision and Draghi presser.  GBP/USD cautiously pushing into 1.3150 despite fresh Brexit concerns Monday is a thinly-populated schedule for economic data, with little of note for both the Sterling and the Greenback, though a speech from the Bank of England's MPC Member Haldane is expected later in the day at 17:00 GMT. Gold Price Forecast: Yellow metal could regain some poise The gold price has recovered 1.5 percent from the one-year low of $1,211, boosting the odds of a strong corrective rally, technical charts indicate. Australia: Headline CPI to tick up to 0.5% q/q in Q2 - ANZ Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their insights on the Australian Q2 CPI report due out this Wednesday at 0130 GMT.  

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will speak at 6pm BST on the history and future of QE and will be a key eve

Analysts at TD Securities point out that the BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent will speak at 6pm BST on the history and future of QE and will be a key event for today’s session.Key Quotes“We think it's unlikely that he delivers any clear hints about the August rate decision, unless there's a feeling on the MPC that market pricing is not consistent at all with where they're leaning.” “Broadbent's remarks may be interesting though for what he says on the future of QE, and any indication around how the BoE will treat its balance sheet going forward.”

Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that their forecasts for the US Federal Funds rate have been consistently above market expectations.

Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that their forecasts for the US Federal Funds rate have been consistently above market expectations.Key Quotes“Our analysis of the current market pricing is for around 65 basis points of further tightening through 2018 and 2019. We have expected a total of 75 basis points over that period with one 25 bps hike in September, followed by a pause, and then 25 bps hikes in March and June with the rate peaking at 2.625% in mid–2019.” “We have expected that signs of the US economy slowing into the second half of 2019 (partly under the weight of a sharp slowdown in government spending) would see the FED curtailing its tightening cycle in anticipation of eventually cutting rates from 2021.” “That sum of 75 basis points of hikes from the FED was still slightly above market expectations but we now believe we need to be even more bold on the FED forecasts.
Trends in core inflation; wages; and employment are increasingly casting doubt on a FED pause between September and March.” “On a six month annualised basis, the core PCE is now running at 2.3% (to May) and the Employment Cost Index is rising at 2.9% (to March). This pace is somewhat faster than we had expected providing the FED with ample justification for not pausing.” “In that regard we note that the FED has emphasised the symmetrical nature of its inflation objective and therefore not indicating any immediate concern that the momentum in the core PCE is running above the 2% target. As such, we are still expecting the gradual (3 month intervals) approach to the tightening cycle.”  

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that markets will be watchful for forecast changes as the BoJ reviews its forecasts at the meeting on 31 July. Key

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that markets will be watchful for forecast changes as the BoJ reviews its forecasts at the meeting on 31 July.Key Quotes“As indicated by the Tankan survey, firms’ expectations of future inflation remain benign and it is likely that the BoJ lowers its inflation forecasts as a result. Sources reportedly suggest that the projection for core CPI will be cut to 1.0% from the 1.3% current forecast for this fiscal year.” “BoJ fixed rate operation says a lot about what they are thinking. 1) They were not happy with talk about any shift in policy towards a more hawkish tilt, 2) They were not happy with the move in JGB yields and 3) at the meeting on 31 July it seems unlikely that they will shift to a less dovish stance.” “USDJPY will likely struggle to move lower in the near term on the back of this announcement.”

The USD/JPY one month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) fell to -1.35 today - the lowest level since June 29 vs from -0.65 seen on last Tuesday, indic

USD/JPY risk reversals have hit three-week lows. The confirmation of short-term bearish reversal in USD/JPY seems to have revived interest in JPY calls. The USD/JPY one month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) fell to -1.35 today - the lowest level since June 29 vs from -0.65 seen on last Tuesday, indicating a sharp rise in the demand or implied volatility premium for the JPY puts.  The data suggests the short-term bearish doji reversal in the USD/JPY spot has likely triggered fears of a deeper pullback and hence the investors are seeking downside protection (JPY calls or USD/JPY puts). JPY1MRR

Singapore Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 0.6 in June from previous 0.4

EUR/USD Chart, 15-Minute Spot rate:  1.1735 Relative change:  0.10% High:  1.1750 Low:  1.1720

The Euro's Friday rally has seen the EUR/USD drift into a high-risk turnaround zone with key resistance points scattered from 1.1750 to 1.1790, leaving the major pair open to an extended slide back into recent lows.The economic calendar for Monday is a thin affair, and market sentiment is squarely in the driver's seat.Daily candles have the pair constrained in lower highs and higher lows, and traders should keep an eye out for decisive breaks in either direction to determine a new medium-term trend.EUR/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  1.1735 Relative change:  0.10% High:  1.1750 Low:  1.1720     Trend:  Strong potential for pullback     Support 1:  1.1683 (38.2% Fibo retracement level) Support 2:  1.1625 (Friday swing low) Support 3:  1.1574 (previous week low)     Resistance 1:  1.1750 (current day high) Resistance 2:  1.1790 (two-week high) Resistance 3:  1.1878 (R3 daily pivot)  

Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that markets are now broadly pricing in Westpac’s view on the outlook for the RBA cash rate with onl

Bill Evans, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that markets are now broadly pricing in Westpac’s view on the outlook for the RBA cash rate with only around a 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of 2019.Key Quotes“That is in stark contrast to a year ago when our call that rates would remain on hold in 2018 and 2019 was well out of market with markets anticipating around 75 basis points of tightening by the end of 2019.” “A weakening housing market; soft inflation and wages growth; an uncertain consumer and pressures on funding have all conspired to cool markets’ expectations. That key dynamic around an uncertain consumer facing constraints on income growth with a falling savings rate always stood out as a key constraint on the ability of the household sector to lift spending in the way anticipated by the markets.” “While markets have moved largely to embrace our view, the Reserve Bank still expects to be raising rates over the course of 2018 and 2019. I think that is apparent in their ongoing above trend growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. But, as we have argued before, the Bank does not have a perfect track record with its forecasts (as none of us in the economics community do) and it will react to any differences between its forecasts and “reality” in a timely fashion.”

A Bank of Japan (BoJ) was reported by Reuters, as saying that today's special operation was conducted in response to a sharp rise in JGB yields. The

A Bank of Japan (BoJ) was reported by Reuters, as saying that today's special operation was conducted in response to a sharp rise in JGB yields. The BoJ offered to buy JGBs at a fixed rate unlimited amount in the 5 - 10 years at 0.11% yield. However, the Japanese central bank stated that no bids were tendered for Monday’s fixed-rate operation.

In the US, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth and analysts at National Bank Financial anticipate stron

In the US, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth and analysts at National Bank Financial anticipate strong contributions from both consumption and trade based on already published data on retail sales and exports/imports.Key Quotes“Business investment may also have provided some lift to the economy as shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft continued their advance. Residential investment, for its part, may not add much to Q2’s print, reflecting lackluster housing starts data.” “All told, GDP may have expanded a solid 4.5% in annualized terms in the second quarter. That would be the steepest progression since 2014Q3.” “The week will also provide important information about the housing market. To start with, existing home sales may have stalled in June, hampered by the extremely low number of homes available on the market. Sales of new homes, meanwhile, likely fell following an outsized jump the prior month.” “Also in June, durable goods orders may have rebounded strongly, in line with the surge registered in civilian plane orders. The preliminary reading of July’s composite PMI will also be released by Markit.”

Hourly chart Spot Rate: 1.3144 Daily High: 1.3157 Daily Low: 1.3120 Trend: mildy bearish Resistance R1: 1.3162 (10-day moving average) R2: 1.

GBP/USD hourly chart shows a bearish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI). The stochastic has generated a sell signal and is about to roll over from the overbought territory in favor of the bears.As a result, the resistance at 1.3155 (200-hour moving average) will likely hold at least for the next few hours. Hourly chartSpot Rate: 1.3144 Daily High: 1.3157 Daily Low: 1.3120 Trend: mildy bearishResistanceR1: 1.3162 (10-day moving average) R2: 1.3276 (50-day moving average) R3: 1.3293 (July 16 high)SupportS1: 1.3120 (session low) S2: 1.3190 (5-day moving average) S3: 1.3089 (100-hour moving average)      

Analysts at Nomura point out that in his testimony to the House Banking Committee on 18 July, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was asked about the implica

Analysts at Nomura point out that in his testimony to the House Banking Committee on 18 July, Federal Reserve Chair Powell was asked about the implications of recent movements in the yield curve for the outlook for the economy and monetary policy and his answer was revealing.Key Quotes“Powell focused on what long-term interest rates are telling us about how the neutral rate of interest is likely to evolve. Because term premia have remained very low, the rise in long-term interest rates over the past year seems to reflect an increase in the expected path of short-term interest rates. That may imply that the neutral rate of interest is likely higher, or will be higher, than previously thought.” “A higher neutral rate would imply that the FOMC will need to raise short-term interest rates more than previously thought to contain the US economy’s considerable momentum.” “Powell may have been signaling that he expects the FOMC to raise shortterm interest rates more over the next year or two than market participants currently expect.”

The GBP/USD pairing is drifting towards the high side, testing into 1.3150 after taking out Friday's highs in early Asia-session trading, despite a be

Dollar-selling in the wider market is seeing the GBP/USD pair on the rise, but Brexit concerns continue to eat away at confidence in the Pound.A thinly-populated economic calendar for Monday will see Brexit woes in control of the major pair's overall directional bias as the new week opens up.The GBP/USD pairing is drifting towards the high side, testing into 1.3150 after taking out Friday's highs in early Asia-session trading, despite a bearish knockback to kick the week off as the latest Brexit proposal from the UK sees little traction with EU leaders. European Union leaders in Brussels have flat-out rejected UK Prime Minister Theresa May's latest "third option" Brexit proposal; under PM May's hopeful middle-ground proposal, the city of London would have enjoyed permanent access to European financial markets, which would rob the EU of decision-making autonomy, as market access to EU-wide markets is a privilege that the broader EU holds the right to rescind at any time. With the latest hotly-debated Brexit proposal now dead in the water with European leaders, Brexiteers are back to the drawing board as PM May struggles to find an acceptable common ground between hard-line Euroskeptics in the UK's parliament, and the keyholders of the European Union, who have little need to make concessions to the UK's demands. Monday is a thinly-populated schedule for economic data, with little of note for both the Sterling and the Greenback, though a speech from the Bank of England's MPC Member Haldane is expected later in the day at 17:00 GMT, while m/m June Existing Home Sales figures for the US are expected at 14:00 GMT, and expected to improve slightly to 5.47 million, slightly higher than the previous reading of 5.43 million.GBP/USD Levels to watchA steeply-bearish British Pound continues to be hampered by Brexit concerns, abd broad-market USD-selling is seeing the pair rise, as opposed to intrinsic strength from GBP bids, which remains non-existent. According to FXStreet's Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik: "the daily chart indicates that bears are still in control of the pair, as the latest recovery stalled below its 20 DMA, while technical indicators have managed to recover some ground, but remain in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the pair settled above a sharply bearish 20 SMA, still some 150 pips below the 200 EMA, while technical indicators stand well above their midlines, but lost their upward strength. The pair could continue advancing on a break above 1.3155, the immediate resistance, although the first line of sellers should appear around the 1.3200 figure. Renewed selling pressure below the 1.3100 level, on the other hand, will likely favor additional declines for this Monday, toward the key 1.3000 psychological threshold." Support levels: 1.3100 1.3065 1.3030 Resistance levels: 1.3155  1.3195 1.3240

The demand for the EUR puts has dropped sharply in the run up to this Thursday’s European Central bank (ECB) rate decision and Draghi presser.  The o

EUR/USD weekly risk reversals, which cover Thursday’s ECB, indicate falling demand for the cheap out of the money EUR put options (bearish bets). EUR/USD closed above 55-day MA, signaling a bottom is in place at 1.1508.The demand for the EUR puts has dropped sharply in the run up to this Thursday’s European Central bank (ECB) rate decision and Draghi presser.  The one-week 25 dealt risk reversals are being paid at 0.475 EUR puts–the highest level since early June. More importantly, the risk reversals were paid at 1.00 EUR puts on July 19.  The decline from 1.00 to 0.475 indicates a falling implied volatility premium or falling demand for the cheap out of the money EUR put options and could be an indication the investors are expecting Draghi to shrug off trade war fears and reiterate commitment to end QE program in December.  Further, the bullish risk reversals gel well with the upbeat technical picture. The spot closed above the 55-day MA on Friday for the first time since April 20 confirming a short-term bottom has been made at 1.1508 (June 21 low).  That said, the record US-DE (German) yield differential could limit the upside in the common currency. As of writing, the 2-year yield spread is hovering at 322 basis points - the highest since 1990. EUR/USD Technical AnalysisResistance: 1.1791 (July 9 high), 1.1852 (June 14 high), 1.1959 (100-day MA).  Support: 1.1708 (55-day MA), 1.1575 (July 19 low), 1.1508 (June 21 low).   

New Zealand’s acting PM Winston Peters is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking at his first post-Cabinet press conference. Peters noted that infla

New Zealand’s acting PM Winston Peters is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking at his first post-Cabinet press conference. Peters noted that inflation is not the sole issue facing the economy. Peters has about another fortnight in the top job before PM Jacinda Ardern returns from parental leave.

Asian stocks are seeing some hesitation at the new week's outset, recoiling at the possibility of further trade action to come from the United State's

US-China trade war fears and combative rhetoric from the Trump administration continue to hamper equities growth.Asia-Pacific session traders have once again turned their focus to rising trade tensions, and fears of a potential global slowdown on too many tariffs are beginning to simmer.Asian stocks are seeing some hesitation at the new week's outset, recoiling at the possibility of further trade action to come from the United State's President Trump. Japan's Nikkei 225 index is sitting near 22,400.00, falling below last week's trading range and marking in new recent lows as equity trade3rs flock to safe haven assets like the Japanese Yen. More tariffs are expected in the coming weeks as the US and China continue their standoff on international trade, with tariffs being levied by both sides recently, and equities continue to play to the weak side as market participants brace for impact, with an exponential ramping-up of the number of tariffs and the value of goods they are imposed on, with the Trump administration threatening to impose border-crossing levies on half a trillion dollars' worth of Chinese-made goods, and China's government strategically targeting US agricultural and raw materials sectors, seeking to specifically punish states and constituencies that voted heavily for Trump in the 2016 US federal election. Monday's continuation of trade angst sees Japan's Nikkei 225 index down around 1.3% so far, while the Tokyo Topix index is relatively unharmed at -0.14%; Shanghai's CSI 300 index is in the red for -0.15%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is down -0.2% for Monday. Australia's ASX 200 is also down for the day, currently down -0.83%, but the MSCI broad Asia-Pacific index, which doesn't count Japanese equities, is seeing a bump on the day, currently sitting at 0.76%.Nikkei 225 levels to watchJapan's leading Nikkei 225 index has already slumped below last week's lows, marking into a continued decline into 22,370.00, and currently finding support at the 38.2% Fibo retracement level. A bullish turnaround will be seeing resistance from last week's high at 22,950.00, while a bearish continuation will be faced with the 61.8% Fibo retracement level, current sitting near the major 22,000.00 key level.

The US President Trump took to Twitter to tell the Iranian President Rouhani to 'never ever threaten' US again. Trump tweeted: “To Iranian President

The US President Trump took to Twitter to tell the Iranian President Rouhani to 'never ever threaten' US again. Trump tweeted: “To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!” This comes in response to Rouhani’s warning to Trump that war with Iran is the mother of all wars. Also, the US Secretary of State Pompeo came on the wires last hour, stating that Iran's leaders have enriched themselves from corruption.

The People's bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday that it lent CNY 500 billion to financial institutions through one-year medium-termlending facility (

The People's bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday that it lent CNY 500 billion to financial institutions through one-year medium-termlending facility (MLF) at 3.30 percent interest rate (unchanged from previous), accordng to Reuters.  The moce has caught markets offguard as no MLF lonas were due today and the central bank usually injects liqudiity through MFL lonas on the day the existing loans are scheduled to mature.   

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their insights on the Australian Q2 CPI report due out this Wednesday at 0130 GMT. Ke

Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) offer their insights on the Australian Q2 CPI report due out this Wednesday at 0130 GMT.Key Quotes:“We expect Q2 inflation data to show that any acceleration in inflationary pressures remains very gradual. Headline inflation will likely tick up to 0.5% q/q, due to a rise in petrol prices, the seasonal increase in health insurance premiums and the regular tobacco indexation.  Core inflation is expected to be steady at 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y, just below the RBA's target band. Weak wage pressures and retail competition continue to weigh on core inflation.”  

The oversold Chinese Yuan extended Friday’s gains in early trade, but the resulting dip in the USD/CNY to 6.74 was short-lived.  At press time, the c

USD/CNY found bid at 6.74, now trades above 6.76A close below 6.7650 would validate Friday’s inverted bearish hammer. The oversold Chinese Yuan extended Friday’s gains in early trade, but the resulting dip in the USD/CNY to 6.74 was short-lived.  At press time, the currency pair is trading at 6.7639 - down 0.68 percent from the 12-month high of 6.8106 hit on Friday.  A close today below 6.7650 (Friday’s low) would add credence to Friday’s inverted bearish hammer candle and would confirm a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change.  Meanwhile, a close above 6.7832 (July 19 high) would open doors for a re-test of Friday’s high of 6.8106.USD/CNY Technical LevelsResistance: 6.7832 (July 19 high), 6.8106 (Friday’s high) Support: 6.7401 (session low), 6.7168 (July 3 high)    

Following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) announcement of a special JGB buying operation earlier, the Japanese central bank came out with a statement, citin

Following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) announcement of a special JGB buying operation earlier, the Japanese central bank came out with a statement, citing that no bids are tendered for Monday’s fixed-rate operation. BoJ offered to buy JGBs at a fixed rate unlimited amount in the 5 - 10 years at 0.11% yield.

The USD/JPY pair fell to a three-week low of 110.75 as USD sell-off gathered pace on rising fears of Sino-US currency war and on speculation that BOJ

USD/JPY feels the pull of gravity as Trump criticizes Fed for higher rates and USD, accuses China and EU of FX manipulation. BOJ speculation may have put a bid under JPY.The USD/JPY pair fell to a three-week low of 110.75 as USD sell-off gathered pace on rising fears of Sino-US currency war and on speculation that BOJ might make changes to its stimulus program. Trump bemoaned FX manipulation, stronger USDThe US President Trump criticized the Fed’s rate hike plans and accused China and the EU of currency manipulation on Friday, triggering a broad based pullback in the USD. Moreover, a significant majority in the market now fears the Sino-US trade war could turn into a full-blown currency war.  Further, Trump upped the ante on trade war front by stating he is ready to impose tariffs on all $505 billion worth of Chinese goods imported to the US.  Meanwhile, sources told Reuters that Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering making adjustments to its stimulus program to make it more sustainable, meaning the central bank might slowdown the pace of bond/ETF purchases. After all, the central bank already owns more than 50 percent of the ETF market and hence may have to announce a “slower for longer” policy.  As a result, the oversold JPY may have picked up a bid.  However, it is worth noting that the market still expects the Fed to hike rates 1.5 times more this year. Further, the 10-year treasury yield is holding around the three-week high of 2.89 percent, which indicates the markets do not expect the Fed to veer from its gradual tightening path, despite Trump’s criticism.  Hence, the current sell-off could be short-lived. At press time, the currency pair is trading at 110.95.  The hourly chart shows oversold conditions, hence we could be in for a bout of consolidation. Hourly chartSpot Rate: 110.95 Daily High: 111.50 Daily Low: 110.75 Trend: Consolidation likelyResistanceR1: 111.15 (rising trendline resistance) R2: 111.40 (May 21 high) R3: 111.50 (session high)SupportS1: 110.52 (50-day MA support) S2: 110.29 (July 5 low) S3: 110.00 (psychological support)      

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was out on the wires earlier today, commenting following his meeting with the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was out on the wires earlier today, commenting following his meeting with the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on the trade issue at the G20 meeting held over the weekend.Key Points:Says he is not supposed to reveal what Mnuchin said. Asked Mnuchin to dispel Japan's concerns. He will refrain from making comments on currencies. Issues starting to calm down as show in short communique. Trade friction is a bigger issue than it was 10 years ago.

Hourly chart Spot Rate: 145.80 Daily High: 146.42 Daily Low: 145.70  Trend: Intraday bullish Resistance R1: 145.97 (resistance as per the hour

The GBP/JPY hourly chart shows the relative strength index (RSI) is not confirming lower lows on price chart (bullish divergence).The pair could revisit the descending bearish 50-hour MA, currently seen at 146.50, if the current or the next hourly candle confirms the positive RSI divergence by closing in green. Hourly chartSpot Rate: 145.80 Daily High: 146.42 Daily Low: 145.70  Trend: Intraday bullishResistanceR1: 145.97 (resistance as per the hourly chart) R2: 146.52 (50-hour moving average) R3: 146.87 (July 18 low resistance on the hourly chart)SupportS1: 144.99 (March 2 low) S2: 143.77 (June 28 low) S3: 143.20 (May 29 low)     

Analysts at Nomura explained that trade tensions remained elevated this week as the Commerce Department held an open hearing on the Trump administrati

Analysts at Nomura explained that trade tensions remained elevated this week as the Commerce Department held an open hearing on the Trump administration’s Section 232 investigation into imports of autos and auto parts.Key Quotes:"Industry representatives and foreign government officials overwhelmingly argued that autos do not pose a national security threat to the United States and that tariffs on those products would cause disproportionate harm to the US economy. We expect the Commerce Department to release their final Section 232 report within the coming weeks, consistent with statements by Secretary Ross and President Trump. Despite the pushback during the hearing, we believe it likely that Commerce will rule affirmatively that imports of autos and auto parts threaten to impair the national security, providing President Trump with options including tariffs and quotas to restrict auto imports. In this context, the Washington visit by EC President Juncker next week to discuss USEU trade will be important. Various news reports indicated that Juncker is prepared to discuss a potential deal between the US and EU to lower auto tariffs in an effort to reduce the likelihood of President Trump imposing new tariffs under Section 232 authority." "Note that President Trump began this week by describing the EU as a “foe” of the US because of its trade policies. In addition, today he accused the EU, and China, of manipulating its currency to undermine US competitiveness. The result of Junker’s visit to Washington next week should provide additional clarity as to the final outcome of the autos investigation. While a deal next week appears unlikely, due to the complexity of WTO rules among other things, a positive statement from President Trump acknowledging progress could offer markets some reassurance as to the next steps in the investigation." "With respect to the US-China trade dispute, President Trump emphasized on Friday his preparedness to impose tariffs on all imports from China as progress on diffusing trade tensions between the two countries stalls. With China offering a more restrained response to the USTR list of 10% tariffs on an additional $200bn in imports, tensions will likely remain elevated as the USTR process unfolds. Finally, NAFTA talks will resume in some form next week as Mexico’s economy minister Ildefonso Guajardo travels to Washington. While Trump administration officials have recently touted progress with Mexico in terms of trade negotiations, we remain skeptical that a renegotiated NAFTA will emerge from the chief negotiators before end-2018."

Analysts at Westpac argue that the markets are now broadly pricing in Westpac’s view on the outlook for the RBA cash rate with only around a 50% chanc

Analysts at Westpac argue that the markets are now broadly pricing in Westpac’s view on the outlook for the RBA cash rate with only around a 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of 2019. Key Quotes:"That is in stark contrast to a year ago when our call that rates would remain on hold in 2018 and 2019 was well out of market with markets anticipating around 75 basis points of tightening by the end of 2019." "A weakening housing market; soft inflation and wages growth; an uncertain consumer and pressures on funding have all conspired to cool markets’ expectations. That key dynamic around an uncertain consumer facing constraints on income growth with a falling savings rate always stood out as a key constraint on the ability of the household sector to lift spending in the way anticipated by the markets."
 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seen debating ways this month to make its massive stimulus program sustainable. The central bank has been flooding the sys

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is seen debating ways this month to make its massive stimulus program sustainable. The central bank has been flooding the system with cash via JGB, ETF purchases and negative intereste rates since 2013, but the 2 percent inflation target still remains elusive. Further, BOJ is seen pushing its inflation forecasts out to the fiscal year ending March 2021, and if anything, the risks are to the downside, meaning the bank could take too long to hit the 2 percent inflation target and hence is reportedly considering steps to make its policy more sustainable.     

EUR/USD rallied to 1.1738 the high, closing at 1.1719 on Friday as the pair traded through the 10, 21 & 55-DMAs last week and is now en route for a te

In Tokyo, the euro climbed higher to 1.1747 in the first hourly stick. Traders continue to offer the greenback on the back of Trump's accusations that the EU and China of manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower.EUR/USD rallied to 1.1738 the high, closing at 1.1719 on Friday as the pair traded through the 10, 21 & 55-DMAs last week and is now en route for a test of the July high at this rate, which is located at 1.1790. Market adjusting and suspecting a full-blown currency warThe market is making further adjustments to the overall positioning in the US dollar, suspecting that the Trump administration is about to ignite a full-on currency war after Trump tweeted his displeasures over the EU and China, calling them out as currency manipulators.  Trump has retaliated by threatening sanctions on $500bln in Chinese exports to the US last year. However, it is worth noting that a full retracement of the USD/CNY’s 2016-18 fall, which is well underway and worth 11.5%, should offset the effect of those tariffs - hence Trump's frustration with rising US rates and USD.EU’s Moscovici: G20 meeting was not tense, but still trade differences persistedEUR/USD levelsAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that a recovery above 1.1790 will target 1.1855. "Above 1.1855 we look for a deeper retracement to the 1.1930 55 week ma, with scope for the 1.1986 200 day ma, where we suspect that it will fail," the analysts added. Indeed, the daily technicals have shifted in the bulls favour, but only slightly as the longer term outlook is bearish and fundamentally where gains should be tempered by the FED and ECB divergence. Therefore, to the downside, the 200-week moving average is at 1.1390 while 1.1186/1.0814 comes as the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement.

The US Secretary of State Pompeo is out with some comments, via Reuters, responding to the Iranian President Rouhani’s warning issued earlier today.

The US Secretary of State Pompeo is out with some comments, via Reuters, responding to the Iranian President Rouhani’s warning issued earlier today.Key Headlines:Iran leaders' wealth, corruption show Iran "is run by something that resembles the mafia more than a government". Iran President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif "are merely polished front men for the Ayatollahs' international con artistry".

NZD/USD Chart, 15-Minute Spot rate:  0.6815 Relative change:  0.31% High:  0.6824 Low:  0.6783

The Kiwi saw a bearish start to the week, but quickly leaned to the bullish side to take out Friday's high before smoothing out above the 0.6800 major level.The pair remains constrained by consecutive lower highs on higher timeframes, and last week's peak on H4 candles at 0.6839 will be critical for bulls to capture if they want to maintain a recovery run.Kiwi bulls remain hopeful, and have continued to defend key lows near 0.6680, bolstering the NZD/USD from further declines.NZD/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  0.6815 Relative change:  0.31% High:  0.6824 Low:  0.6783     Trend:  Potential bearish pullback     Support 1:  0.6783 (current day low) Support 2:  0.6755 (61.8% Fibo retracement level) Support 3:  0.6712 (previous week low)     Resistance 1:  0.6839 (previous week high) Resistance 2:  0.6858 (July high) Resistance 3:  0.6920 (June 25th peak)  

Reuters reports comments delivered by the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici following the G20 Finance Minister

Reuters reports comments delivered by the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Pierre Moscovici following the G20 Finance Ministers in Argentina on Sunday.Key Points:Global trade tensions were high and threatened to escalate further, placing the multilateral system under significant pressure. The economic impact had been limited so far. “The meeting has not been tense and we were in mutual listening mode and I hope that this is the beginning of something.” “But still the positions are not similar.”

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at a yield of 0.11 percent, the same level at w

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at a yield of 0.11 percent, the same level at which it intervened in the past, according to Reuters. JGB futures have reportedly trimmed losses after BOJ's special operation. 

AUD/USD Chart, 15-Minute Spot rate:  0.7425 Relative change:  0.16% High:  0.7436 Low:  0.7414

The Aussie is testing into recent highs, and consistent technical constraint at recent swing highs leads the AUD/USD to be primed for another bearish rollover.Failure to push upwards and claim last week's highs above 0.7440 will see a quick turnaround into recent lows targeting 0.7300.The Aussie sees little data ahead of Wednesday's CPI reading, and traders may be looking to fade a potentially bullish showing for a positive Australian data release.AUD/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate:  0.7425 Relative change:  0.16% High:  0.7436 Low:  0.7414     Trend:  Flat to bullish Support 1:  0.7391 (38.2% Fibo retracement level) Support 2:  0.7353 (common constraint level) Support 3:  0.7317 (previous week low)     Resistance 1:  0.7440 (July 19th swing high) Resistance 2:  0.7483 (July high) Resistance 3:  0.7504 (R2 daily pivot)  

The EUR/JPY is testing past Friday's lows, clunking into 130.30 as the new week opens on the risk-averse side, with traders favoring the Japanese Yen

The EUR/JPY sees bears maintaining control as the new week opens with risk appetite in retreat.A quiet week ahead will be seeing market sentiment the key driver of overall market direction.The EUR/JPY is testing past Friday's lows, clunking into 130.30 as the new week opens on the risk-averse side, with traders favoring the Japanese Yen on the market open as trade risks return to the forefront of market concerns. The Euro saw rough action against the safe-haven Yen last week, peaking just beneath the 132.00 critical level early on before slumping back to a low of 130.50 in Friday's trading, and the bearish action is set to continue following revelations that European Union leaders in Brussels have flat-out rejected the latest Brexit proposal from the UK, keeping risk appetite muted as trade concerns across the globe continue to grind higher, chewing up traders' willingness to bid up riskier assets. The early week sees quiet action across the board on the economic calendar, and the only event slated for the EUR/JPY is a low-tier German Buba Monthly Report, being released by Germany's Deutsche Bundesbank, but the specific release time is not known, and the report is unlikely to deliver any news that traders have not already digested.EUR/JPY levels to watchWith the EUR/JPY pairing looking to continue last week's bearish movement, support is sitting at the last swing low on H4 candles near 129.90, with late June's peaks near 129.25, while bulls will be looking to surmount last week's highs near the 132.00 critical level before they can challenge April's highs far above at the 133.00 major level.

Following complaints by a Chinese steel business about foreign dumping in Chinese markets, China's Commerce Ministry will be launching an anti-dumping

Following complaints by a Chinese steel business about foreign dumping in Chinese markets, China's Commerce Ministry will be launching an anti-dumping probe against Japan, the European Union, and South Korea. The Commerce Ministry for China says that it will be launching an anti-dumping investigation into imports of stainless steel billet and hot-rolled stainless steel plate products from the EU, Japan, South Korea, as well as Indonesia. Imports into China of underpriced metals products has been on the rise, and may have been exacerbated by the US' recent imposition of broad-based steel and aluminum tariffs, jarring global metals markets. By launching an anti-dumping investigation, China is paving the way to begin enacting their own sets of targeted metals tariffs on justified evidence, allowing them to further restrict the movement of metals products across their borders and further hampering the flow of cheap products to the US, squeezing already-choked supply lines into the US materials-based industries.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.7593 vs Friday's fix of 6.7671.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.7593 vs Friday's fix of 6.7671.

Barclay's analysts are highlighting a potential short scenario unfolding on the USD/JPY, and according to the investment bank, fundamental support for

Barclay's analysts are highlighting a potential short scenario unfolding on the USD/JPY, and according to the investment bank, fundamental support for the Japanese Yen are going to time well with potential shortfalls on the US Dollar.Key highlightsYen short positions have largely been unwound according to Commitment of Traders reports. JPY is being supported on trade war issues. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be having a key meeting next week, expected to be Yen-positive. US-Japan trade discussions expected to weigh on risk sentiment, bolstering the Yen. Barclays is short the USD/JPY targeting 108.10, with a stop limit at 113.40.

With Aussie CPI coming up, where the headline CPI is expected at +0.5% (TDS forecast +0.6%) and underlying CPI expected at +0.5%, (TDS +0.55%) the ana

With Aussie CPI coming up, where the headline CPI is expected at +0.5% (TDS forecast +0.6%) and underlying CPI expected at +0.5%, (TDS +0.55%) the analysts at TD Securities (TDS) argued that as the RBA is glued to the sidelines, even our firmer CPI take is unlikely to boost the AUD for long. Key Quotes:"Negative rate differentials and ongoing tension on global trade remain significant headwinds. Fading rallies remains prudent." "The OIS strip is flat to 1.5% cash and no trading opportunities just now. With a patient and gradual RBA, as long as core inflation tracks 2%/y there is no little need for rates to respond. The Aug 15 wages report is the next policy hurdle for the rates market."
 

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Our model1 projects the fix to be 111 pips lower than t

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Our model1 projects the fix to be 111 pips lower than the previous fix (6.7560 from 6.7671) and 235 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.7795. The basket implied change is 329 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.7466 from 6.7795)."
 

USD/JPY is on the move in Asia and Tokyo has pushed it higher to test the 111 psychological level with a low of 110.85 so far from a high of 111.51.

USD/JPY bears on the move attacking the 111 handle.USD/JPY is technically poised to extend its decline.USD/JPY is on the move in Asia and Tokyo has pushed it higher to test the 111 psychological level with a low of 110.85 so far from a high of 111.51. USD/JPY has been dropping, following the move that started last week following Trump's comments on CNBC that have sparked an unwinding in the dollar. The DXY has dropped all the way back to 94.2810 from close to 95.31 earlier in the month.  However, there is a decoupling of US yields and the dollar where 10yr treasury yields rose from 2.84% to 2.89% on Friday -to the highest in a month and the 2yr yields also climbed and from 2.59% to 2.60% while the Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018.Trump going to currency wars?It would appear that while Trump is unable to demand the Fed to keep rates on hold, the rhetoric has heightened the trade war risk and put the dollar into question, raising the suspicion that the Trump administration will spark a full on currency war.  However, in this weekend's G20, there was a clear motion between delegates that reaffirmed exchange rate commitments made in the March statement to avoid competitive devaluations and refrain from targeting exchange rates for competitive advantage Meanwhile, the week ahead will get interesting in the US with Q2 GDP as the highlight on Friday. "July existing home sales have been soft of late, with the NAR attributing it to a lack of supply," analysts at Westpac explained. USD/JPY levelsFrom a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the pair settled at the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily advance between 110.34 and the mentioned 113.17, and is technically poised to extend its decline, as in the daily chart, technical indicators retreated from overbought readings, heading south almost vertically and nearing their midlines: "The 100 DMA in the mentioned chart advances below the 200 DMA, both in the 109.50/60 region. In the 4 hours chart, the pair closed a few pips below the 100 SMA, the first time below it in almost a month, while technical indicators pared their declines in oversold territory, with the RSI still heading lower at 26, suggesting that buyers remain sidelined despite the latest 200 pips' slump."

The AUD/USD is peeking into recent highs near 0.7430 after a rough previous week that saw the Aussie testing into July's lows in choppy swings, but ho

A flat Aussie hits the new week awaiting new developments as trade-focused traders keep an eye on US-China tensions.With a thinned-out calendar for the week, tariff developments and trade comments will have a magnified effect on the weary AUD.The AUD/USD is peeking into recent highs near 0.7430 after a rough previous week that saw the Aussie testing into July's lows in choppy swings, but hopeful bulls are keeping the pair tentatively flat near last week's highs as they await further developments in global trade. A shortfall in US Dollar bidders saw the AUD manage to stage a late-week recovery from recent lows, and the Aussie is being helped into a balanced stance by bouncing metals prices, which continue to surge and fall at the behest of trade headlines focusing on the US-China trade spat which still has the potential to deliver further trade-damaging tariffs on the horizon. It's going to be a quiet week for the AUD, and trade headlines will be the deciding factor for the AUD/USD's directional bias moving forward, though Consumer Price Index figures for 2018's second quarter will be dropping early Wednesday at 01:30 GMT, with the q/q CPI for Q2 forecast to grind upwards from 0.4% to 0.5%.AUD/USD levels to watchThe Aussie is geared to move sideways against the Greenback on a flattening technical outlook, and according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the daily chart offers a neutral technical stance, as the pair has been moving for almost three weeks around a flat 20 DMA, while technical indicators lack clear directional strength, stuck around their midlines. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is developing below a mild bearish 200 SMA and above directionless 20 and 100 SMA, while technical indicators eased, but hold in positive territory. The pair has an immediate resistance in the 0.7440/50 region but would need to clearly break July's high at 0.7483 to gain further upward traction." Support levels: 0.7370 0.7330 0.7300     Resistance levels: 0.7445 0.7490 0.7520 

NZD/USD has started out the week by closing the opening bearish gap down at 0.6791 and has climbed back to score a high of 0.6820. NZD/USD has been r

NZD/USD has started out the week by closing the opening bearish gap.The recent tick-up in core inflation provides some assurance that inflation is on the rise.NZD/USD has started out the week by closing the opening bearish gap down at 0.6791 and has climbed back to score a high of 0.6820. NZD/USD has been recovering from the descending support line at 0.6713 and has added a full cent since the recent remarks from Trump in both the CNBC interview on Thursday in NY trade and again on Friday when he tweeted a series of comments that have stoked the trade war fire. Analysts at ANZ noted that President Trump doubled down on his critical comments of the Fed and the USD subsequently suffered, sending kiwi back over 68 cents. "Domestic developments have taken a back seat for now, with the NZD at the whims of global forces, although it is not like that picture is overly clear at present," the analysts added.RBNZ will remain on hold, Fed will continue to raise ratesMeanwhile, on the domestic front, the recent tick-up in core inflation provides some assurance that inflation is on the rise, but the analysts at ANZ expect the RBNZ will remain cautious, particularly in light of uncertainty around the persistence of inflation pressures - leaving the bias and advantage towards the dollar on the central bank theme - regardless of what Trump says about the Fed and interest rates. NZD/USD levelsSupport is located at 0.6720 and resistance remains located at 0.6860. Bullishly, the price has overcome 0.6760, where it was previously resisted by the 21-hr SMA. The price then managed to get above the 10-hr SMA and took RSI into overbought conditions. There could be some consolidation and profit taking here. However, on a break of 0.6920,  the bulls will be well back in control and could target the June highs. The 200-month moving average resistance at 0.7007 is next key level. 

Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani, cautioned US President Donald Trump about pursuing hostile policies against Iran, but didn't go so far as to rule th

Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani, cautioned US President Donald Trump about pursuing hostile policies against Iran, but didn't go so far as to rule the possibility for peace talks between the two nations.Key quotes"Addressing a gathering of Iranian diplomats, Rouhani said: “Mr Trump, don’t play with the lion’s tail, this would only lead to regret,” the state new agency IRNA reported. “America should know that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace, and war with Iran is the mother of all wars,” Rouhani said, leaving open the possibility of peace between the two countries, at odds since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “You are not in a position to incite the Iranian nation against Iran’s security and interests,” Rouhani said, in an apparent reference to reported efforts by Washington to destabilize Iran’s Islamic government. In Washington, U.S. officials familiar with the matter told Reuters that the Trump administration had launched an offensive of speeches and online communications meant to foment unrest and help pressure Iran to end its nuclear program and its support of militant groups. Rouhani scoffed at Trump’s threat to halt Iranian oil exports and said Iran has a dominant position in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping waterway. “Anyone who understands the rudiments of politics doesn’t say ‘we will stop Iran’s oil exports’...we have been the guarantor of the regional waterway’s security throughout history,” Rouhani said, cited by the semi-official ISNA news agency. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday backed Rouhani’s suggestion that Iran may block Gulf oil exports if its own exports are halted. Rouhani’s apparent threat earlier this month to disrupt oil shipments from neighboring countries came in reaction to efforts by Washington to force all countries to stop buying Iranian oil. On Sunday, Iran’s ground forces commander became the latest military figure to back Rouhani’s apparent threat, the semi-official news agency Tasnim reported. Separately, a top Iranian military commander warned that the Trump government might be preparing to invade Iran. “The enemy’s behavior is unpredictable,” Tasnim quoted military chief of staff General Mohammad Baqeri as saying. “Although the current American government does not seem to speak of a military threat, according to precise information it has been trying to persuade the U.S. military to launch a military invasion (of Iran),” Baqeri said.   Iran’s oil exports could fall by as much as two-thirds by the end of the year because of new U.S. sanctions, putting oil markets under huge strain amid supply outages elsewhere."

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the week ahead.  Key Quotes: "United States | Data preview The week ahead: We expect robust Q2 real GD

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the week ahead. Key Quotes:"United States | Data previewThe week ahead: We expect robust Q2 real GDP growth of 4.6% q-o-q saar Existing home sales (Monday): We forecast a 0.1% m-o-m increase in existing home sales to 5435k saar in June from 5430k in May. Pending home sales were weak in May and April. In addition, structural factors such as rising mortgage rates and shortage of units for sales likely prevailed. Thus, we expect only a modest improvement in existing single-family home sales in June. In addition, volatile existing condo and co-op sales rose 1.6% m-o-m in May. This increase may have reverted in June, lowering total sales. New home sales (Wednesday): New home sales likely declined 3.0% m-o-m to 668k saar in June. While month-to-month changes tend to be volatile, we continue to expect gradual improvement in new home sales. For June, consumer demand likely remained steady but supply-related factors may have continued to weigh on sales. In particular, much of the newly-built housing stock has been concentrated on more expensive units, exacerbating the supply shortage in the lower-end segment of the market. Advanced goods trade balance (Thursday): Based on incoming container data at US ports, goods exports growth likely slowed in June after a strong jump in May, which was driven by a transitory surge in soybean exports. Soybean exports will likely decline in coming months, slowing overall exports growth. Moreover, container data suggest that nominal imports likely rose sluggishly in June. All in all, we expect the advance estimate of goods trade balance for June to register $65.3bn deficit following $64.8bn in May. Durable goods orders (Thursday): We expect a modest 0.3% m-o-m increase in extransportation durable goods orders in June. The ISM new orders index edged down slightly but remained high at 63.5 in June. The industrial production report for June indicated healthy growth in ex-transportation durable goods output. These data appear consistent with the solid momentum in the industrial sector and a pickup in business equipment investment in Q2. Among transportation equipment, orders for motor vehicle and parts likely rose sharply. The industrial production report indicated that truck assemblies picked up in June following significant disruptions in May. Further, civilian aircraft orders likely boosted transportation orders considering industry data. Altogether, we expect a 3.0% m-o-m increase in total durable goods orders in June. Q2 GDP, first estimate (Friday): We forecast robust 4.6% q-o-q saar real GDP growth for Q2, mostly driven by solid contributions from personal consumption, nonresidential fixed investment, and government consumption. Consistent with the strong labor market, personal consumption expenditure likely rose solidly in Q2 after a lull in Q1. Investment in nonresidential structures likely continued to grow at a healthy pace, in line with the Q2.  Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which implied that lending standards on nonfarm nonresidential commercial real estate loans eased in Q2. Moreover, elevated shale oil and gas extraction activity likely boosted oil-related structures investment. In addition, federal government spending likely rose solidly considering higher defense spending during Q2. Residential investment, however, likely remained as a drag as sales activity softened and outlay on home improvement and mobile homes weakened. Moreover, incoming data on net defense outlay and state and local public construction outlay point to a solid pickup in federal and state & local government spending in Q2. In addition, trade deficit narrowed significantly in April and May, pointing to significant boost from net exports to real GDP growth. Some of the narrowing in trade deficit, however, was led by a transitory surge in soybean exports ahead of retaliatory tariffs by US trading partners which will likely wane in coming months. Note the BEA will release the “comprehensive revision” of the National Income and Product Accounts along with its advance estimate for Q2 GDP. Annual revisions for monthly Personal Income and Outlays tables will be released on 31 July with June data.  University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday): The headline index of the University of Michigan consumer survey fell 1.1pp to 97.1 in July. Inflation expectations at the one-year horizon ticked down 0.1pp to 2.9% while those at the 5-10 year horizon declined by 0.2pp to 2.4%. The preliminary survey results suggest that consumer sentiment may be sensitive to concerns about tariffs. The report indicated that “[the proportions of respondents citing] negative concerns about the impact of tariffs have recently accelerated, rising from 15% in May, to 21% in June, and 38% in July.” Respondents who expressed negative views of the tariffs expressed more bearish expectations on future conditions with a higher expected inflation rate. For the final estimate for July, we expect consumers to maintain increased concerns about tariffs.Euro area | Data previewThe week ahead Euro area July flash PMIs data and UK CBI Survey will be in focus next week. Euro area PMIs, July flash (Tuesday): We expect the euro area composite PMI for July to increase to 55.3 from 54.9 in June. At the sector level, we expect the regional manufacturing PMI to dip to 54.6 from 54.9 and the services PMI to increase to 55.9 from 55.2. While the escalation in world trade disputes should worsen sentiment, domestic demand is still appears buoyant. Overall levels of these indices are still high relative to their long-run averages, and our forecast for July’s flash reading would be consistent with euro area GDP growth of around 0.5% q-o-q in Q3 2018. UK CBI industrial trends survey, July (Tuesday): Every quarter, the CBI publishes both its monthly survey (which contains only a limited number of indicators, of which total orders is probably the most widely watched) and its quarterly survey. In the latter, aside from the headline measure of optimism, look for indicators of capex, employment, spare capacity and factors limiting output, exports and investment. Germany Ifo survey, July (Wednesday): We expect the Ifo Business Climate Survey to decline to 100.9 in July from 101.8 in June. We think this decline will be driven mainly by a further decline in business expectations (we forecast a drop in Ifo business expectations to 97.4 from 98.6 in June). With trade tensions intensifying between Germany and the US, we expect the deterioration in sentiment to continue in July. Crucial to this issue will be the meeting between Trump and Junker on 25 July, during which the main focus will be on possible tariffs on the auto sector in Europe.  UK Finance approvals for house purchase, June (Wednesday): While there is typically limited market reaction to this number, it is worth bearing in mind that it is closely correlated with the BoE’s official data published the following week. UK CBI distributive trades survey, July (Wednesday): The reported balance of this survey rose to its highest since last September in June (32%), probably helped by the weather and the World Cup. The expected balance published last month suggests that it may not remain at such an elevated level although, with real wages recovering and the weather remaining supportive, we think the survey should remain reasonably solid. ECB Governing Council meeting, July (Thursday): Policy announcements at June’s ECB meeting were surprising more in timing than in content. The ECB made some important changes to guidance on its Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and rates. With these announcements, a long period of inaction is likely; however, some uncertainty remains as to what the ECB actually meant by “through the summer” in the context of leaving rates on hold. A recent article citing “policymakers speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity” suggested that the wording was sufficiently vague for some to argue it is consistent with no move until the 24 October 2019 meeting, while others believe it could be as soon as 25 July 2019. We continue to forecast the first 15bp hike in the deposit rate in September 2019, followed by a further 10bp hike in all policy rates in Q4 2019.Japan | Data previewThe week ahead We expect Tokyo core CPI inflation to slow in July as boosts from highly volatile items drop out of the picture. July Tokyo core CPI (all items, ex fresh food) (Friday): We expect Tokyo core CPI inflation to come in at 0.6% y-o-y for July, lower than the 0.7% recorded in June. We also think that the BOJ version of the core core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy, will slow in July relative to June, coming in at 0.3%. The higher rates of inflation seen for accommodation and overseas package tours made substantial contributions to the Tokyo core inflation rate in June, but these are relatively volatile items, and we think that their positive impact on inflation will drop out of the picture in July. Household durables, which have mostly tended to depress the core inflation rate recently, boosted it in June. In the corporate goods price index (CGPI), prices of household durables fell 1.3% y-o-y in June, representing a small improvement from the 1.6% y-o-y decline in May. However, the CGPI usually leads the CPI to some extent, and we think it is still too early for wholesale prices to be reflected in retail prices. Prices of household durables tend to be relatively volatile, and it is possible that their boost to the Tokyo CPI in June was merely temporary. In view of the weakness of consumer spending, we do not think that prices have embarked on an upward trend as yet. Meanwhile, energy prices, including pump prices for gasoline, have not risen much recently, and we expect overall core inflation to be lower in July than in June.Asia | Data previewAustralia: We forecast a 0.5% q-o-q rise in headline CPI inflation and a 0.4% q-o-q rise in the underlying or trimmed mean inflation, which translates into a 0.3pp increase in y-o-y inflation in Q2 from Q1. Higher global oil and local fuel prices in Q2 should boost headline CPI inflation in Q2, but underlying price pressures appear more subdued. Our core inflation forecast looks to be one-tenth below the current Bloomberg consensus. We note that AUD fell in Q2, although we expect any consequent inflation impulse to be quite subdued, particularly given spare capacity and fierce retail competitive pressures."

As reported by Reuters, the European Council sees no need for the US to remove steel and aluminum tariffs before trade talks can proceed, continuing t

As reported by Reuters, the European Council sees no need for the US to remove steel and aluminum tariffs before trade talks can proceed, continuing to keep the door open to the US to engage in bilateral talks on trade.Key quotes"The United States’ removal of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports is not a necessary precondition for trade talks between the United States and the European Union to begin, the European Council representative to the G20 Hubert Fuchs said on Sunday. That ran against French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire’s comments on the sidelines of the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Buenos Aires on Saturday that the United States must drop the tariffs before talks can start. “We are representing 28 member states of the European Union, not only Germany and France. We shouldn’t have any preconditions for the talks,” Fuchs, also Austria’s state secretary for finance, said in an interview. “It’s not a precondition because preconditions are never good, but it would be a great wish.” "

Major industrial companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting in large groups over the coming week, and tariffs are expected to begin taking chunks out

Major industrial companies in the S&P 500 will be reporting in large groups over the coming week, and tariffs are expected to begin taking chunks out of profit shares across the board.Key quotes"Investors are worried about the impact on earnings should the United States’ trade war with China and other major trading partners escalate. Deutsche Bank in June estimated that an escalation of the dispute to include $200 billion of imports would hit earnings growth by 1-1.5 percent. “If today’s political rhetoric intensifies and translates into actual protectionist policies, it will be a negative for all businesses in the U.S. and abroad, including ours,” Hamid Moghadam, chief executive of supply chain management company Prologis, warned on a conference call on Tuesday. Manufacturers across the country are concerned about Washington’s recent trade policies, with some saying that uncertainty related to tariffs was already hitting them, according to anecdotes collected by the U.S. Federal Reserve in its Beige Book, released on Wednesday. Since March 1, S&P 500 industrials .SPLRCI have fallen nearly 3 percent, reflecting the sector’s dependence on international commerce. The S&P 1500 steel index .SPCOMSTEEL has lost 1 percent since March 1, as investors worry that a slowdown in global demand could offset U.S. steelmakers’ benefits from tariffs against their foreign competitors. Many of the roughly 180 S&P 500 companies reporting their results next week are not directly exposed to China, but they may still have reasons for concern. “There are companies that might not be significantly impacted by tariffs from a cost perspective, but from the uncertainty around it,” said Kurt Brunner, a portfolio manager at Swarthmore Group in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. “They could see customers holding off on spending because they don’t know what is going to happen.” That is starting to show up in early reports by companies. Earnings from Honeywell International, General Electric and Stanley Black & Decker show companies facing higher costs due to already enacted tariffs, and uncertainty about tariffs on as much as $500 billion in Chinese goods threatened by Trump. Second-quarter corporate earnings seasons kicks into gear starting on Monday, with results on tap from companies including Corning, Ford Motor, 3M Co and Boeing, which has fallen nearly 2 percent since the start of March.

The GBP/JPY saw some hesitation at the week's open, knocking into 146.08 on the market open before recovering to 146.36 as GBP traders await further r

Sterling traders on the defensive in early Monday action as the EU rejects the latest Brexit proposal.A thin calendar for the week will have market sentiment focusing on the Brexit quagmire as well as ongoing trade tensions abroad.The GBP/JPY saw some hesitation at the week's open, knocking into 146.08 on the market open before recovering to 146.36 as GBP traders await further reactions from the upcoming London market session for Monday after weekend headlines broke that the leaders of the European Union have rejected the lastest Brexit proposal to come out of the UK. Leadership from the EU has finally weighed in on UK Prime Minister Theresa May's latest Brexit proposal, and the "third option" exit deal appears to be dead in the water, with EU leaders in Brussels unwilling to allow the city of London to have an exemption from the EU's autonomous right to withdraw access to financial markets and services, and PM May and Brexiteers within the UK's parliament are back to the drawing board as pro-leavers struggle to develop a successful negotiating strategy or develop any headway with Europe. Monday is devoid of any meaningful data on the economic calendar for either the Sterling or the Japanese Yen, and market sentiment is set to hesitate once again as Brexit fears and trade spat headlines return to the surface.GBP/JPY levels to watchFriday saw a much-needed hesitation after the previous week's steady decline from an early high of 149.30, and bulls will have their work cut out for them if they decide to make a push for resistance sitting at the last two swing highs on H4 candles, near 146.65 and 147.65, while bears see support nearby at last week's low of 145.96 and early July's swing low of 145.18.

In a market wrap, analysts at Westpac explained that US President Trump launched fresh salvos in the US-China trade war and again criticised the Fed,

In a market wrap, analysts at Westpac explained that US President Trump launched fresh salvos in the US-China trade war and again criticised the Fed, and the G20 summit highlighted trade tensions - noting that the US dollar fell and US bond yields rose.Key Quotes:"Trump’s comments that he was “ready to go to 500” of tariffs in imports from China; that he was “not thrilled” about the prospects of Fed hikes and that “China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies” saw a volatile close to the week." "His comments on the Fed hikes and Trade concerns were the key issue into the weekend’s G-20 finance ministers’ summit. Merkel and EU officials joined China in stating that they would resist and retaliate against US tariffs." People’s Bank of China released supplementary guideline changes with respect to wealth management products operated by banks in an effective loosening of current tight controls. Japanese media suggested that Bank of Japan will debate policy changes and may modify its yield curve targeting, whilst insisting that it would not be tightening but would be to mitigate market distortions. Bank of England MPC member Tenreyro’s interview in London’s Evening Standard indicated her shift towards voting for a hike, though not explicitly, in August. Canadian June CPI headlined at 2.5%y/y (exp 2.3%) and the average of core measures lifted to 2.0% (exp. 1.9%). Fed non-voter Bullard spoke with a dovish tone when he stated that US rates were high by global standards, that Fed forecasts indicate further gradual tightening but that curve inversion may be imminent and would be a bearish signal.

The GBP/USD pairing kicks off the new trading week with a bearish twist to Monday, testing near 1.3120 and halting Friday's bullish stance, as Europea

Monday geared to be a defensive day for the GBP as EU leaders in Brussels flat-out reject the latest Brexit proposal from the UK.Several weeks' worth of tense negotiation, re-writes, and critical parliament votes have been flushed as the EU sees no need to sacrifice autonomy in favour of Brexit posturing.The GBP/USD pairing kicks off the new trading week with a bearish twist to Monday, testing near 1.3120 and halting Friday's bullish stance, as European leadership in Brussels have flat-out rejected British Prime Minister Theresa May's latest Brexit proposal, stating that the 'third option' proposal would rob the European Union of "decision-making autonomy", by preventing the EU from retaining the right to withdraw access to European trade markets if the deal were to be accepted. The EU has rejected the UK's latest proposal on how to govern the city of London's access to European financial markets after Brexit, and PM May and her cohort within the UK parliament are once again back to the drawing board on how to negotiate a smooth Brexit, with hard-line Brexiteers on one side steadily gearing up to begin making moves to outright oust Theresa May, and staunch European leaders in Brussels unwilling to make sacrifices on their part so that the UK can cherry-pick EU laws to follow or abandon. After last week's dismal showing for economic data from the UK, the Sterling heads into a trading week that is decidedly thin on the macro calendar, and Monday will bring fresh bearish action as Brexit once again returns to headlines, and the only slated event for Monday is a speech from the Bank of England's (BoE) MPC Member Haldane due later in the day at 17:00 GMT.GBP/USD Levels to watchFriday's late bullish move looks to have already run out of gas now that Brexit is back to the forefront, and as FXStreet's Valeria Bednarik noted, "the daily chart indicates that bears are still in control of the pair, as the latest recovery stalled below its 20 DMA, while technical indicators have managed to recover some ground, but remain in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the pair settled above a sharply bearish 20 SMA, still some 150 pips below the 200 EMA, while technical indicators stand well above their midlines, but lost their upward strength. The pair could continue advancing on a break above 1.3155, the immediate resistance, although the first line of sellers should appear around the 1.3200 figure. Renewed selling pressure below the 1.3100 level, on the other hand, will likely favor additional declines for this Monday, toward the key 1.3000 psychological threshold." Support levels: 1.3100 1.3065 1.3030 Resistance levels: 1.3155  1.3195 1.3240

The weekend news starts with Brussels rejecting the UK’s proposals on how to govern the City of London’s access to the European market after Brexit -

The weekend news starts with Brussels rejecting the UK’s proposals on how to govern the City of London’s access to the European market after Brexit - as reported in the last few hours by Jim Brunsden, Editor at FT in Brussels. "Theresa May’s latest financial services plan would rob the EU of its “decision-making autonomy”, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator said.  "European affairs ministers on Friday that the British prime minister’s vision for the City’s future relationship with the EU would violate the principle that access rights to the bloc’s financial services market are a gift from Brussels that can be freely withdrawn. His remarks were a rebuff to the UK government — which published its white paper this month on Britain’s future relations with the EU — and highlight the many conflicts between the two sides despite a more conciliatory tone over the Northern Ireland border issue at the same meeting,"  - Jim Brunsden at the FT wrote earlier today. Trae war risk will remain a theme for time to comeElsewhere, the finance ministers and central bankers from the G20 met over the weekend and while there were not any takeaways that might affect opening prices this week, TEU's Pierre Moscovici said there are still differences of position on trade and tensions remain, even after the G20 finance ministers and central banker talks over the weekend: The final communique headlines say that "short- and medium-term risks to growth have increased, including heightened trade and geopolitical tensions". Also, "Exchange rate commitments made in the March statement to avoid competitive devaluations and refrain from targeting exchange rates for competitive advantage".