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Bảng Tin tức Forex

Thứ ba, Tháng một 22, 2019

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that Eurozone’s wage growth has picked up since the start of 2018, in spite of the fact that

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, points out that Eurozone’s wage growth has picked up since the start of 2018, in spite of the fact that there is still slack in the labour market.Key Quotes“Compensation per employee rose by 2.5% yoy in 2018Q3, up from 1.9% in 2017Q4. Considering that real wages contracted in 2017 due to an unexpectedly sharp rise in the headline inflation rate on the back of higher energy prices, we think that the pick-up in nominal wage growth since the start of 2018 merely was compensation for this.” “Consequently, we expect nominal wage growth to decline somewhat in 2019. Nevertheless, it should remain higher than the inflation rate. An early indicator for somewhat slower wage growth seems to be that growth in negotiated wages (which according to comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi is the ECB’s preferred measure of wage growth) edged lower from 2.2% in 2018Q2 to 2.1% in 2018Q3.”

Spain 3-Month Letras Auction rose from previous -0.505% to -0.462%

   •  The cross showed some resilience below 100-hour EMA and for the second straight session managed to find decent support near the 140.70-60 horizo

   •  The cross showed some resilience below 100-hour EMA and for the second straight session managed to find decent support near the 140.70-60 horizontal zone.   •  Slightly better-than-expected UK wage growth data and an unexpected downtick in the UK unemployment rate provided a minor lift to the British Pound.   •  Technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart regained positive traction and continue to hold in the bullish territory on 4-hourly/daily charts, supporting bullish bias.   •  A follow-through up-move beyond the overnight swing high, around mid-141.00, will reinforce the constructive set-up and pave the way for additional intraday gains.   •  However, a convincing break below the mentioned support might negate the positive outlook and prompt some aggressive long-unwinding trade amid Brexit uncertainties.GBP/JPY 1-hourly chartGBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 141.17
    Today Daily change: -0.25 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.18%
    Today Daily Open: 141.42
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 139.47
    Daily SMA50: 142.11
    Daily SMA100: 144.45
    Daily SMA200: 145.48
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 141.54
    Previous Daily Low: 140.69
    Previous Weekly High: 142.22
    Previous Weekly Low: 137.36
    Previous Monthly High: 145.52
    Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.21
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 141.01
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.89
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.37
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 140.04
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 141.75
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 142.07
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 142.6  

   •  Wages excluding bonuses rose by 3.3% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.    •  Wages including bonuses rose by 3.4% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.

   •  Wages excluding bonuses rose by 3.3% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.
   •  Wages including bonuses rose by 3.4% 3m/y compared to 3.3% expected.
   •  The UK unemployment rate unexpectedly ticks lower to 4.0% in November.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday, the UK’s average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, matched expectations and arrived at 3.3% 3m/y versus 3.3% last. Meanwhile, the gauge including bonuses bettered expectations and came in at 3.4% 3m/y as against 3.3% 3m/y previous.  The Kingdom’s official jobless rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.0% in November, while the claimant count change showed a bigger-than-expected increase. The number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 20.8K in December as against expectations of a 20.0K increase and an upwardly revised reading of 24.8K seen previously. 

The Sterling is deriving some support from the better-than-expected labour market figures today and is lifting GBP/USD beyond 1.2900 the figure, or da

Cable regains the composure following UK jobs report.The pair clinches fresh daily highs above the 1.2900 mark.UK Claimant Count Change rose by 20.8K in December.The Sterling is deriving some support from the better-than-expected labour market figures today and is lifting GBP/USD beyond 1.2900 the figure, or daily highs.GBP/USD bid on data, looks to BrexitCable gained extra ground following the publication of the monthly report on the UK labour market. In fact, Claimant Count Change rose by 20.8K in December, the key Average Earnings including Bonus rose 3.4% in November and the jobless rate ticked lower to 4.0% during the same period. Looking ahead, developments around Brexit, as always, will dictate the sentiment around the British Pound. In this regard, and following PM May’s ‘Plan B’ released on Monday, investors will now focus on the probable amendments to it, a potential extension of Article 50, the ‘no deal’ scenario, the likeliness of a second referendum or the option involving a permanent customs union. It is worth recalling that the Parliament will vote again on January 29.GBP/USD levels to considerAs of writing, the pair is up 0.07% at 1.2901 facing the next resistance at 1.3000 (2019 high Jan.17) seconded by 1.3072 (high Nov.14 2018) and then 1.3087 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, a breach of 1.2830 (low Jan.21) would expose 1.2779 (55-day SMA) and finally 1.2766 (21-day SMA).

United Kingdom Claimant Count Rate remains at 2.8% in December

United Kingdom Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) above forecasts (3.3%) in November: Actual (3.4%)

United Kingdom Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) in line with expectations (3.3%) in November

United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) below expectations (4.1%) in November: Actual (4%)

United Kingdom Claimant Count Change came in at 20.8K, above forecasts (20K) in December

United Kingdom Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) meets forecasts (3.3%) in November

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing above forecasts (£1.05B) in December: Actual (£2.112B)

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/MXN bounced off the 2018-19 support line at 18.8762 towards the August high and the 200 day

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that the USD/MXN bounced off the 2018-19 support line at 18.8762 towards the August high and the 200 day moving average at 19.3747/4468.Key Quotes“Minor resistance above the 200 day moving average at 19.4468 comes in at the 19.6855 September high with still further resistance being seen along the 55 day moving average at 19.9287.” “Key resistance remains to be seen at the 20.4720/6574 October-to-December highs.” “Below the current January low at 18.8787 lie the mid-October low at 18.7312 and the August and October troughs at 18.5017/4052. This area we expect to hold, if it were to be retested anytime soon.”

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Today Last Price: 96.37     Today Daily change: 0.03 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.03%    

The greenback is extending its upside momentum so far this week, retaking the mid-96.00s and opening the door for a potential move higher in the short-term horizon.DXY has quickly reverted Monday’s retracement and has now resumed the upside to fresh 3-week tops near 96.50.Extra gains should face interim hurdle at the 55-day SMA, today at 96.60, ahead of the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the September-December up move at 96.79.DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.37
    Today Daily change: 0.03 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 96.34
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.15
    Daily SMA50: 96.64
    Daily SMA100: 96.08
    Daily SMA200: 95.05
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.43
    Previous Daily Low: 96.21
    Previous Weekly High: 96.4
    Previous Weekly Low: 95.47
    Previous Monthly High: 97.71
    Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.35
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.29
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.22
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.11
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.44
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.55
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.66  

German ZEW Survey Overview The ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 1000 GMT in the EU session lat

German ZEW Survey OverviewThe ZEW will release its German Economic Sentiment Index and the Current Situation Index at 1000 GMT in the EU session later today, reflecting institutional investors’ opinions for the next six months. The headline economic sentiment index is expected to fall to -18.4 in January as against an unexpected recovery to -17.5 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the current situation sub-index is also likely to decelerate further to 43.5 versus 45.3 recorded in December.     How could affect EUR/USD?A surprisingly positive headline reading might prompt some short-covering bounce and assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards reclaiming the 1.1400 handle. However, a bigger-than-expected drop would further dent the already weaker sentiment surrounding the shared currency and pave the way for an extension of the pair's near-term bearish trajectory. FXStreet´s own Analyst, Yohay Elam writes: "Initial support awaits at 1.1345 which is the fresh low and also the low point around Christmas. 1.1310 was the swing low at the wake of the new year. Further down, 1.1270 is a double bottom after halting the falls in December. 1.1215 is the 2018 low." "Looking up, 1.1380 was the initial low after the pair lost 1.1400. 1.1410 is significant resistance after rejecting recovery attempts. This price also coincides with the 200 SMA. 1.1450 served as support early in January. 1.1480 was a swing high before the recent falls," Yohay adds.Key Notes   •  Germany: Focus on ZEW figures today – TDS    •  EUR/USD Forecast: Looks to confirm a bearish breakdown ahead of Thursday's ECB decision    •  EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Scope for extra downside. Target remains at 1.1300 and belowAbout German ZEWThe Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
 

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that their outlook for the global economy and world trade suggest that Eurozone exports will c

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that their outlook for the global economy and world trade suggest that Eurozone exports will continue to contract in 2018Q4-2019Q1 and grow modestly thereafter.Key Quotes“Importantly, we expect policymakers to facilitate a modest recovery in world trade growth. The FOMC seems less fixed on further interest rate hikes, the ECB may keep interest rates on hold for even longer, while China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus. Moreover, we have assumed that there will be no escalation of protectionism, although uncertainty related to protectionism will continue to linger.” “As the trade-weighted exchange rate of the euro has been moving in a narrow range since the summer of 2017, it is not expected to have a significant impact on competitiveness or trade flows. All in all, we expect net exports to reduce overall GDP growth by around 0.3pps in 2019.”

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 124.3     Today Daily change: -0.40 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.32%     Tod

EUR/JPY is extending its consolidative theme so far this year following the ‘flash crash’ on January 3 to sub-119.00 levels.The cross, however, faces a formidable resistance in the 125.00 area, reinforced by August 2018 low (124.91) and the 21-day SMA at 124.80.Below this hurdle the cross is expected to extend the sideline theme although the likelihood of a leg lower remains well on the cards with immediate target at 123.31 (low January 15).EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 124.3
    Today Daily change: -0.40 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.32%
    Today Daily Open: 124.7
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 124.8
    Daily SMA50: 126.92
    Daily SMA100: 128.4
    Daily SMA200: 128.97
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 124.83
    Previous Daily Low: 124.51
    Previous Weekly High: 124.98
    Previous Weekly Low: 123.39
    Previous Monthly High: 129.3
    Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 124.71
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 124.63
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 124.53
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 124.36
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 124.2
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 124.85
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.01
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 125.18  

   •  Fails to capitalize on the overnight uptick led by the UK PM May’s Brexit Plan B.    •  The global flight to safety underpins USD and exerts so

   •  Fails to capitalize on the overnight uptick led by the UK PM May’s Brexit Plan B.
   •  The global flight to safety underpins USD and exerts some downward pressure.
   •  Downside remains limited ahead of the UK jobs report/wage growth data.
The GBP/USD pair held on to its softer tone through the early European session and refreshed daily lows in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered few pips thereafter. Worries over global growth boosted the US Dollar's perceived safe-haven demand and turned out to be one of the key factors failing to assist the pair to capitalize on the previous session’s goodish rebound from the 1.2830 support area. The overnight up-move came after the UK PM Theresa May's Brexit Plan B, which lacked any significant details but decreased the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum and extended some support to the British Pound.  Meanwhile, a downward revision to its global growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 by the IMF on Monday, against the backdrop further slowdown in the Chinese economy to its weakest annual growth since 1990, prompted investors to move into traditional safe-haven currencies and kept a lid on any further gains.  The downside, however, remained cushioned, at least for the time being, as market participants now seemed to wait for today's important release of the UK labor market report, though any immediate reaction is more likely to remain short-lived amid plenty of Brexit uncertainties.Technical levels to watchThe 1.2830 region might continue to act as immediate support, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to break through the 1.2800 handle and aim towards testing its next support near mid-1.2700s. On the upside, immediate resistance is pegged near the 1.2920-30 region, above which the pair is likely to make a fresh attempt towards conquering the key 1.3000 psychological mark.

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index dipped from previous 2.6% to 2.5% in December

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/JPY’s correction higher is losing steam, the intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative a

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the USD/JPY’s correction higher is losing steam, the intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative and the daily Elliott wave count continues to indicate failure at 110.30.Key Quotes“We would then allow slippage back towards 107.75/50 and possibly the 104.10 spike low. The recent move lower was exhaustive and we suspect that this will hold for now.” “Above 110.30 will allow for a retest of the 111.38 the 26th October low. Support at 104.63/10 guards the 100.70 Fibonacci support and the 99.00 2016 low. Initial support lies 107.77, 10th January low.” “Resistance at 111.38, the 26th October low, guards112.23 the 6 th December low and the top of the range at 113.84.”

EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.1358     Today Daily change: -0.0011 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.10%     

The pair remains under pressure and is now putting the 1.1350 area to the test, or fresh multi-week lows.The continuation of the leg lower could open the door for a visit to the key 200-week SMA in the 1.1320 region. A break below this level could allow for a test of YTD lows in the 1.1300 neighbourhood ahead of December lows in the 1.1270/65 band.The bearish outlook on EUR/USD is expected to persist as long as the short-term resistance line, today at 1.1542, caps.EUR/USD daily chart EUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1358
    Today Daily change: -0.0011 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.10%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1369
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1428
    Daily SMA50: 1.1388
    Daily SMA100: 1.146
    Daily SMA200: 1.1599
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1392
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1357
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.137
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1353
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1338
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1318
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1388
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1407
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1423  

Jens Peter Sørensen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that EUR/GBP remains mainly unaffected after UK PM, Theresa May, presented her Plan B for

Jens Peter Sørensen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, suggests that EUR/GBP remains mainly unaffected after UK PM, Theresa May, presented her Plan B for Brexit as it did not offer much news in terms of the future path for Brexit.Key Quotes“All options are still on the table, including a second referendum, which the Labour party according to the media is said to be proposing to parliament. Voting on Plan B and other amendments will take place on 29 January. With an extension of Article 50 looking increasingly likely and parliament seeking to take over the Brexit process and thereby reducing the risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, the post-Brexit outcome distribution for EUR/GBP looks increasingly skewed towards the downside.” “Appetite for GBP has generally improved and implied GBP FX volatility (Brexit risk premium) has declined significantly. We reckon that the range for EUR/GBP may have shifted lower and we now see the cross within the 0.86-0.89 range near term (previous range: 0.88-0.9060).”

   •  The pair finally broke down of its overnight consolidative trading range and has now dropped to test a short-term ascending trend-line support,

   •  The pair finally broke down of its overnight consolidative trading range and has now dropped to test a short-term ascending trend-line support, held over the past one week or so.   •  The fact that the pair has now found acceptance below 50-hour SMA, along with bearish technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart support prospects for an eventual bearish break.    •  However, positive oscillators on the 4-hourly chart make it prudent to wait for a convincing break through the mentioned support before positioning for additional depreciating move.USD/JPY 1-hourly chartUSD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 109.42
    Today Daily change %: -0.24%
    Today Daily Open: 109.68
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.21
    Daily SMA50: 111.45
    Daily SMA100: 112.05
    Daily SMA200: 111.2
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 109.78
    Previous Daily Low: 109.47
    Previous Weekly High: 109.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
    Previous Monthly High: 113.83
    Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.66
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.59
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.51
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 109.34
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 109.21
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.81
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.94
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.11  

Lan Shen, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that the China’s January SMEI reading shows a marginal improvement in SMEs’ business performance

Lan Shen, economist at Standard Chartered, points out that the China’s January SMEI reading shows a marginal improvement in SMEs’ business performance entering 2019.Key Quotes“The headline SMEI (Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) – based on our monthly survey of more than 500 SMEs – edged up to 54.9 in January from 54.7 in December.” “The ‘current performance’ sub-index advanced 0.4ppt from December and was 1.0ppt higher than in January 2018. The ‘credit’ sub-index picked up 1.2ppt from December and was 1.5ppt higher than January last year. This suggests a brighter start to this year compared to 2018, supported by improved credit support.” “We expect the relaxation of criteria for banks’ eligibility for targeted RRR cuts, the targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF) and the recent RRR cut to incentivise banks to increase credit allocation to SMEs and lower their funding costs.”                          

The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps the optimism well and sound so far this week, quickly leaving behind Monday’s small pullba

The index extends the march north to the 96.50 region.Yields of the US 10-year note drops to the vicinity of 2.75%.US markets back to normal activity after Monday’s holiday.The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), keeps the optimism well and sound so far this week, quickly leaving behind Monday’s small pullback and refocusing on 96.50, or 3-week highs.US Dollar Index propped up by sentimentThe index is prolonging the rebound from YTD lows in the 95.00 neighbourhood seen earlier in the month, already gaining more than 1.5%. In fact, the buck is deriving support from the lack of any significant progress in the US-China trade talks, stagnant Brexit negotiations and the probable re-assessment of fundamentals in the euro area, which continues to weigh on EUR. In the data space, December New Home Sales are only due later in the NA session.What to look for around USDThe US Federal government shutdown is already in its fourth consecutive week and investors have started to gauge its impact on GDP and employment figures during the first quarter. The US and China are expected to resume the trade talks at the end of the month in Washington. Until then, rumours and speculations are expected to run high and have their saying on the buck’s price action. On the longer run, the potential revision of the Fed’s tightening plans for this year appears to have lost some traction among traders, although this is expected to return to the fore as a key market driver in the medium term.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.12% at 96.43 facing the next resistance at 96.47 (high Jan.22) seconded by 96.61 (55-day SMA) and finally 96.96 (2019 high Jan.2). On the flip side, a breakdown of 96.12 (21-day SMA) would open the door to 95.92 (10-day SMA) and then 95.76 (50% Fibo of the September-December up move).

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, for the GBP/USD pair, they have conflicting intraday Elliott wave count, but for now would allow for

According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, for the GBP/USD pair, they have conflicting intraday Elliott wave count, but for now would allow for slippage to the 1.2775 55 day ma, as it is easing back from the 1.3000 level and looks set to consolidate near term.Key Quotes“The market recently reversed from a 5 month support line. We regard the recent move to 1.2444, charted in January, as the end of the down move and we look for gains to the 200 day ma at 1.3088. Dips will find initial support at the 55 day ma at 1.2775 and 1.2669/62, the August low. Only below 1.2444/25 targets the 78.6% retracement at 1.2109.” “Only a rise above the July, September and October highs at 1.3258/1.3363 would put the June high at 1.3473 on the cards.”

Hungary Gross Wages (YoY) declined to 10.4% in November from previous 10.8%

   •  The global flight to safety lifts the USD to near two-week tops.    •  Weaker oil prices undermine Loonie and remained supportive.    •  Today

   •  The global flight to safety lifts the USD to near two-week tops.
   •  Weaker oil prices undermine Loonie and remained supportive.
   •  Today’s second-tier economic data might provide some impetus.
The USD/CAD pair built on the overnight positive momentum and climbed further beyond the 1.3300 handle to hit over two-week tops in the last hour. A slowdown in China economy to 28-year lows, followed by a downward revision to its global growth forecasts by the IMF fanned fresh worries over global growth and boosted the US Dollar's traditional safe-haven appeal.  Meanwhile, weakening global economic data were cited as a headwind for crude oil prices, which further undermined the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and remained supportive of the up-move to the highest level since Jan. 7. The latest leg of a sudden pick up over the past hour or so could also be attributed to some technical buying on a sustained move beyond the 1.3315-20 region, lifting the pair back towards 50-day SMA support-turned-resistance. It would now be interesting to see if bulls are able to maintain their dominant position amid relatively thin economic docket, featuring the release of Canadian manufacturing sales and existing home sales data from the US.Technical levels to watchOn a sustained move beyond the mentioned barrier, around the 1.3345 region, the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.3400 round figure mark. On the flip side, any meaningful retracement now seems to find immediate support near the 1.3300-1.3290 region, which is followed by support near the 1.3255-50 horizontal zone. 
 

The UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that we are working on what to propose on the backs

The UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay was out on the wires in the last hour, via Reuters, saying that we are working on what to propose on the backstop and it is in both sides interest to have a deal. He was further noted saying that Parliament recognizes that compromise is needed and going back to the referendum would damage democracy. PM May's deal is the most popular of options available and there is a huge amount in the deal that lawmakers do support, he added further.

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that on the expected lines, UK PM Theresa May's Brexit plan B did not really give us any new information or clarific

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that on the expected lines, UK PM Theresa May's Brexit plan B did not really give us any new information or clarification.Key Quotes“It seems like May's strategy is to find out how to get her supporting party, Ulster's DUP, on board, as it would mean bigger support also within her own party. Now, focus is on the amendments, where our focus is on these four topics: (1) a customs union or not, (2) a possible extension of Article 50, (3) preparation of a new EU referendum and (4) new deadlines for Theresa May.” “The main problem with Brexit is that there is no majority for anything, so it is not a given that any of the amendments will get support from the majority of the MPs. Focus is also on the EU, where we no can no longer rule out a long extension of Article 50, giving time to negotiate the future permanent relationship, which would be the best way to avoid ever having to activate the much-hated Irish border backstop.”

The selling bias around the single currency remains well and sound during the first half of the week and is now dragging EUR/USD to test lows in the m

The pair remains under pressure and drops near 1.1350.The greenback pushes higher and approaches 96.50.German, EMU ZEW survey next of relevance in Euroland.The selling bias around the single currency remains well and sound during the first half of the week and is now dragging EUR/USD to test lows in the mid-1.1300s.EUR/USD looks to data, risk trendsThe continuation of the bid sentiment surrounding the greenback is putting spot under further pressure and forcing it to trade in the area of 3-week lows. Sentiment in the risk-associated complex remains sour today as market participants continue to adjust to the recent headlines from the IMF, further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy and lack of progress from the US-China trade negotiations. It is worth recalling that the Washington-based think tank revised lower its forecasts for global growth for the current year to 3.5% from 3.7%. Data wise today, the ZEW Survey is due in Germany and the euro area, while attention should also remain on developments from the Brexit talks following May’s ‘Plan B’.What to look for around EUR/USDToday’s figures from the ZEW Survey should shed further light on the ongoing slowdown in Germany and the euro bloc. Moving further, EUR is expected to remain under scrutiny ahead of the ECB meeting due later in the week, where President Draghi is expected to deliver a cautious (dovish?) message. In the longer run, fundamentals in the region should remain in centre stage along with the upcoming EU parliamentary elections (May), Italian politics and French social unrest.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.11% at 1.1351 and faces the next support at 1.1324 (200-week SMA) seconded by 1.1306 (2019 low Jan.3) and finally 1.1269 (monthly low Dec.14 2018). On the flip side, a break above 1.1380 (55-day SMA) would target 1.1415 (21-day SMA) en route to 1.1442 (38.2% Fibo of the September-November drop).

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that their December quarter CPI forecast of flat/q and 1.8%/y forecast (same as consensus) is slightly lower than th

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that their December quarter CPI forecast of flat/q and 1.8%/y forecast (same as consensus) is slightly lower than the RBNZ’s 2%/y, but is via an unexpected -3.5%/q slump in fuel prices (Private transport -2.0%/q).Key Quotes“Most market forecasts are actually +0.1% but the tail is skewed to the downside (including a few looking for -0.1%/q). Most services prices are expected to creep higher; we know the seasonal slide in Food (-1.4%/q) and a seasonal pop in public transport (+8.4%/q). After official CPI is released, the RBNZ releases sector factoral model CPIs, core measures that RBNZ Governor Orr watches (3pm NZT).”          

UK Jobs report overview The UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to No

UK Jobs report overviewThe UK labor market report is expected to show that the average weekly earnings, including bonuses, in the three months to November, are expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%, while ex-bonuses also, the wages are also seen steadying at 3.3% in the reported period. The number of people seeking jobless benefits increased 20.0k in the three months to December versus 21.9k additions booked last. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1% during the period.How could they affect GBP/USD?A drop in the UK’s wages could trigger fresh selling in the pound while markets remain watchful of the Brexit-related developments. The rates could test the 1.2754 (100-DMA) on a negative surprise. A break below the last, a test of the 1.2700 level remains inevitable. On a positive surprise, the GBP/USD pair could stage a comeback and regain the 1.29 handle, above which the immediate resistances lie at 1.2931 (Jan 14 high) and 1.2972 (200-DMA). “The regular pay (excluding bonuses) is expected to increase 3.3% over the year in the three months to November, confirming the strongest pay rise in the last decade. On the top of it, the total pay is also expected to repeat last month’s reading of 3.3% y/y in three months ending in November. Strong pay increases reported in December UK labor market report are set to support Sterling on the currency markets, as pay rise implication in an environment of low inflation supports real earnings growth and will see the Bank of England hike the Bank rate in the anticipation of emerging wage pressures on inflation”, Mario Blascak (PhD), Editor-in-Chief at FXStreet explains.Key NotesUK employment amongst market movers today – Danske BankUK: Unemployment rate likely to remain unchanged at 4.1% - TDS GBP/USD Analysis: Climbs after Brexit Plan-B but lacks follow-through ahead of UK employment dataAbout UK jobsThe UK Average Earnings released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

   •  Dismal China GDP print/global growth concerns continue to weigh.     •  The USD benefits from haven-flows and added to the selling bias. The A

   •  Dismal China GDP print/global growth concerns continue to weigh. 
   •  The USD benefits from haven-flows and added to the selling bias.
The AUD/USD pair traded with a negative bias for the third consecutive session and is currently placed at two-week lows, around the 0.7135 region. The pair extended last week's retracement slide from levels beyond the 0.7200 handle and was further weighed down by a combination of negative forces. Monday's Chinese macro data showed that the economy recorded its weakest annual growth since 1990 and was seen as one of the key factors denting sentiment surrounding the China-proxy Australian Dollar.  Adding to this, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2019 to the weakest in three years and fanned worries over global growth, which further collaborated towards driving haven-flows towards the US Dollar and away from perceived riskier currencies - like the Aussie.  Meanwhile, the latest optimism over a possible resolution of the US-China trade tensions did little to lend any support, albeit might help limit further downside amid a relatively thin US economic docket, featuring the second-tier release of existing home sales data, and ahead of Thursday's Australian employment details. Technical levels to watchImmediate support is pegged near the 0.7115-10 region, below which the pair is likely to break through the 0.7100 handle and aim towards testing its next support near the 0.7065-60 horizontal zone. On the flip side, the 0.7155-60 region now becomes immediate resistance, which if cleared might assist the pair to make a fresh attempt towards reclaiming the 0.7200 handle. AUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7137
    Today Daily change: -0.0022 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.31%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7159
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7117
    Daily SMA50: 0.7183
    Daily SMA100: 0.7171
    Daily SMA200: 0.7314
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7182
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7139
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7156
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7166
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7138
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7117
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7181
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7203
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7225
 

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD continues to ease lower towards the 1.1332 uptrend and the market is currently pretty

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD continues to ease lower towards the 1.1332 uptrend and the market is currently pretty neutral, but they suspect that the downside is now fairly limited.Key Quotes“Dips lower should be contained by the 200 week ma at 1.1326 and the 2016-2019 uptrend at 1.1306. We favour a recovery to the 1.1591/1.1623 200 day ma and mid October high and slightly longer term we target 1.1772, the 55 week ma.” “Failure at 1.1267 will trigger losses to the 1.1216 recent low and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186. Please note that we continue to regard the 1.1216 recent low as an interim low for the market.” “Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1625 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1795 back on the cards.”                                                   

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in the UK, focus is on the amendments to Theresa May's Brexit Plan B and whether the members of parliament can ge

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that in the UK, focus is on the amendments to Theresa May's Brexit Plan B and whether the members of parliament can get behind one or more of them.Key Quotes“So far, the problem has been that there is no majority for anything in the House of Commons.” “The UK jobs report for November is also due, where we estimate both the unemployment rate (three-month average) and the annual growth rate in average weekly earnings (three-month average) were unchanged at 4.1% and 3.3% y/y, respectively.” “In Germany, focus is on the ZEW survey data for January. The current situation index has been falling over the past three months, which was likely also the case in January.” “US markets are open again today after being closed yesterday due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day.”  

In an interview with DLF Radio on Tuesday, Germany Justice Minister Barley expressed his displeasure with the UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit Plan B while

In an interview with DLF Radio on Tuesday, Germany Justice Minister Barley expressed his displeasure with the UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit Plan B while saying that the UK will always be a close partner. Barley said that the Draft Brexit deal will not be changed, adding that in case of a second referendum there could be leeway in terms of time. He finally noted that the referendum on Brexit deal could pacify situation

FX option expiries for Jan 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts 109.00 684m 109.25 600m - AUD/

FX option expiries for Jan 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - USD/JPY: USD amounts 109.00 684m 109.25 600m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.7150 7 10m  0.7200 526m - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6720 202m  0.6750 210m

The risk-off sentiment was the key underlying theme in Asia this Tuesday, as global growth concerns continued to remain a drag on the markets. The saf

The risk-off sentiment was the key underlying theme in Asia this Tuesday, as global growth concerns continued to remain a drag on the markets. The safe-havens such as the Yen was offered a fresh boost at the expense of the higher-yielding currencies such as the Aussie, the Kiwi and the GBP.  The Aussie emerged the main laggard while the USD/JPY pair breached the 109.50 level. The Cable faced rejection multiple times just ahead of the 1.29 handle. Among the related markets, both crude benchmarks extended the corrective slide as economic worries spread while gold prices failed to benefit from negative Asian equities and traded weaker below 1280 levels.Main Topics in AsiaUS President Trump: China's latest economic numbers show need for trade deal – Twitter UK Labor Party proposes option of second Brexit referendum German Govt Spox: Germany continues to campaign for an orderly Brexit UN sees global economic growth slowing to 3% in 2019 – Reuters Japanese firms to keep capex steady amid US-China trade tensions – Reuters Corporate Survey WTI consolidates the upside near $54, OPEC cuts underpin UK’s Rudd: UK may face resignations if lawmakers stopped from voting away no-deal – The Times Japan's 40-year bond yield hits lowest since December 2016 Gold remains on defensive despite IMF's downward revision of global growth China's State planner: economic pressure will hit the job market India's GDP will improve to 7.5 percent next fiscal - IMFKey Focus AheadMarkets gear up for a busy EUR macro calendar, with the UK jobs and wages data to headline. The wages, both excluding and including bonuses, for November are likely to remain unchanged at 3.3% 3m/y while the ILO unemployment rate is also seen steadying at 4.1% in the reported month. Also, in focus remains the German ZEW economic survey for the month of January, with the headline figure seen arriving at -18.4 vs. -17.5. Later in the NA session, the Canadian manufacturing sales and wholesale sales will be released at 1330 GMT, followed by the US existing home sales data at 1500 GMT. In early late NY/ early Asian trades at 2245 GMT, New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report will be published. EUR/USD: yield differentials favor the US dollar The EUR, therefore, is likely to remain under pressure ahead of the ECB's rate decision. The technicals are also biased bearish. For instance, the pair has found acceptance under the 50-day moving average (MA) support and the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending south. GBP/USD slipping further away from 1.2900 ahead of UK wages The GBP/USD pair broke its overnight consolidative mode to the downside heading into the London markets, now looking to test the 100-DMA at 1.2854, with the immediate focus now on the UK labor market report due at 0930 GMT. UK wages Preview: UK wages set to rise supporting rate hike outlook Even with the Brexit uncertainty weighing on the UK business investment and consumer spending, the UK labor market is solid and firm and the fresh labor market report for December due Tuesday, January 22 is expected to confirm it again. NZ: Recent volatility in fuel prices to have little bearing on Q4 CPI – Westpac Analysts at Westpac present a brief preview of New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report due later on Tuesday at 2145 GMT.  

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a relatively unchanged snapshot of the labour market in the three months to November for the UK economy. Key

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting a relatively unchanged snapshot of the labour market in the three months to November for the UK economy.Key Quotes“The unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1% for the third consecutive month, while wage pressures (both headline and headline ex-bonus) repeat their previous 3.3% 3m/y gains. Core wages (private sector ex-bonus) should accelerate slightly to 3.5% 3m/y. Overall this picture will continue to point to a tight labour market, with rising costs a concern for the MPC.”                         

Hourly chart Trend: bearish EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 124.28     Today Daily change: -0.42 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.34

The EUR/JPY pair could soon drop below 124.00 as the markets are likely to price in a delay in the ECB rate hike, courtesy of weakening of domestic demand conditions across the Eurozone. On Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised lower its global growth forecasts for the second time in three months, citing softening demand across Europe and recent palpitations in financial markets. Notably, the IMF now sees the German economy expanding 1.3 percent this year, down 0.6 percentage points from October. The ECB, therefore, has little room to sound dovish. Put simply, developments on the fundamental front favor downside in the EUR. Validating that argument is the triangle breakdown seen in the EUR/JPY chart below.Hourly chartTrend: bearish EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 124.28
    Today Daily change: -0.42 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.34%
    Today Daily Open: 124.7
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 124.8
    Daily SMA50: 126.92
    Daily SMA100: 128.4
    Daily SMA200: 128.97
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 124.83
    Previous Daily Low: 124.51
    Previous Weekly High: 124.98
    Previous Weekly Low: 123.39
    Previous Monthly High: 129.3
    Previous Monthly Low: 125.36
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 124.71
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 124.63
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 124.53
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 124.36
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 124.2
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 124.85
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 125.01
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 125.18  

Netherlands, The Consumer Spending Volume rose from previous 1.7% to 2% in November

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj fell from previous 9 to 1 in January

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in today’s session, German ZEW data will be the key economic release. Key Quotes “While our statistical model

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that in today’s session, German ZEW data will be the key economic release.Key Quotes“While our statistical models point to considerable downside risks in today's German ZEW figures, we think that the unwinding of some temporary factors such as low levels in the Rhine (a major transport route) should prevent any further deterioration, and look for a roughly unchanged Current Situation Index at 45.0 and a small gain in the Expectations Index to -15.0.”

Indian economy will expand at a world-beating 7.5 percent rate in the fiscal year 2019-2020 despite the slowdown in the global economy, the Internatio

Indian economy will expand at a world-beating 7.5 percent rate in the fiscal year 2019-2020 despite the slowdown in the global economy, the International Monetary Fund said while upgrading its October forecast of 7.4 percent, according to Hindustan Times. Key pointsIndia's economy is poised to pick up in 2019, benefiting from lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening than previously expected, as inflation pressures ease. IMF estimates India to grow 7.3% in 2018-19 and 7.7% in 2020-21. India's contribution to world growth has risen from 7.6% during 2000-08 to 14.5% in 2018. China's growth slowdown could be sharper than expected, especially if trade tensions continue. This can trigger abrupt sell-offs in financial and commodity markets as was the case in 2015-16.

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the eurozone economy lost significant momentum in 2018 and early indicators suggest that

Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN AMRO, suggests that the eurozone economy lost significant momentum in 2018 and early indicators suggest that growth remained well below the trend rate of around 1.5% annualized in 2018Q4 and 2019Q1.Key Quotes“Exports and industrial production probably contracted during these two quarters as the global economy and world trade lost further momentum, while growth in France was temporarily disrupted by strikes and street protest.” “Looking forward, we expect GDP growth to pick up somewhat after 2019Q1 and settle down at around 0.3-04% qoq, which is close to the trend growth rate. Importantly, the temporary factors that depressed growth in 2018Q3-2019Q1 will unwind.” “Moreover, we expect modest growth in industry and exports on the back of some improvement in global trade growth in the second half of the year, and a pick-up in private consumption and government spending in the eurozone.”

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at the 5-day moving average (MA) support 109.44, having clocked a high of 109.69 earlier today. That pullback i

USD/JPY is feeling the pull of gravity, possibly due to haven demand for the anti-risk JPY.IMF's downward revision of global growth forecasts is likely weighing over the S&P 500 futures and Asian stocks.The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at the 5-day moving average (MA) support 109.44, having clocked a high of 109.69 earlier today. That pullback is likely associated with the risk aversion in the equities and the resulting haven bid for the Japanese yen - surplus currency. As of writing, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.66 percent loss. Meanwhile, Asian heavyweights like Nikkei, Kospi, Hang Seng, and the Shanghai Composite are down at least 0.6 percent. It seems the risk sentiment has taken a hit due to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) downward revision of the global growth forecasts. The fund predicts global growth of 3.5 percent this year, beneath the 3.7 percent expected in October, according to Bloomberg. Further, the prospects of a breakthrough US-China trade deal are low, given the two sides have made little or no progress on key issues like the Chinese theft of American intellectual property. Put simply, the path of least resistance for both the equities and the USD/JPY looks to be on the downside.USD/JPY Technical LevelsUSD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 109.47
    Today Daily change: -0.21 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.19%
    Today Daily Open: 109.68
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 109.21
    Daily SMA50: 111.45
    Daily SMA100: 112.05
    Daily SMA200: 111.2
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 109.78
    Previous Daily Low: 109.47
    Previous Weekly High: 109.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 107.99
    Previous Monthly High: 113.83
    Previous Monthly Low: 109.55
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 109.66
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 109.59
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 109.51
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 109.34
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 109.21
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 109.81
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 109.94
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 110.11    

The GBP/USD pair broke its overnight consolidative mode to the downside heading into the London markets, now looking to test the 100-DMA at 1.2854, wi

Risk-off sentiment, firmer US dollar sends Cable lower. May’s Plan B could keep the corrective slide cushioned. Markets await UK jobs and wages data for the next move. The GBP/USD pair broke its overnight consolidative mode to the downside heading into the London markets, now looking to test the 100-DMA at 1.2854, with the immediate focus now on the UK labor market report due at 0930 GMT. The spot continues to face stiff resistances ahead of the 1.29 handle, as the buyers remain wary over the Brexit scenario, as the March 29th deadline approaches. Moreover, the GBP markets digest the latest report that the UK Labor Party proposes option of second Brexit referendum while a broadly firmer US dollar amid risk-off action in the Asian equities, driven by global growth risks, also collaborated to the latest leg down in the Cable.However, the UK PM May’s Plan B announced yesterday could help keep the sentiment somewhat underpinned around the pound. PM May noted that she does not rule out a no deal Brexit while adding that the Article 50 will not be extended without a deal. Further, a stronger UK wages data could bring back BOE rate hike talks back on the table, which would send the major back above the 1.29 handle. “The UK regular pay (excluding bonuses) is expected to rise 3.3% over the year in three months to November, confirming the strongest pay rise in a decade from the previous month. The UK total pay (including bonuses) is expected to accelerate to 3.3% y/y in three months ending in November after rising 3.3% in the previous months,” Mario Blascak, PhD, Editor-in-Chief at FXStreet noted.GBP/USD Technical LevelsGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.2879
    Today Daily change: -0.0015 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.12%
    Today Daily Open: 1.2894
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2771
    Daily SMA50: 1.2751
    Daily SMA100: 1.2891
    Daily SMA200: 1.3086
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.2912
    Previous Daily Low: 1.283
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3002
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2668
    Previous Monthly High: 1.284
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2477
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.288
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.2861
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.2845
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2797
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2764
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.2927
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.296
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3008  

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1360 and risks falling to 1.13, courtesy of the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. The sprea

The US-German (DE) two-year yield spread is rising in the EUR-negative manner.Markets are likely expecting a dovish bias.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday downgraded the global growth forecast, courtesy of softening demand across Europe.The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1360 and risks falling to 1.13, courtesy of the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. The spread between the US and German two-year bond yields rose to 320 basis points on Friday; the highest level since Dec. 21. The rising yield differential indicates the markets are likely expecting the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi to sound dovish at this week's rate-setting meeting on Jan. 24. Notably, the yield spread could rise further ahead of the ECB's rate decision, as the IMF's cut its forecast for the world economy for the second time in three months, citing softening demand across Europe. Add to that Brexit uncertainty and financial market instability and Draghi has little room to talk dovish. The EUR, therefore, is likely to remain under pressure ahead of the ECB's rate decision. The technicals are also biased bearish. For instance, the pair has found acceptance under the 50-day moving average (MA) support and the 5- and 10-day MAs are trending south.EUR/USD Technical LevelsEUR/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.1361
    Today Daily change: -0.0008 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.07%
    Today Daily Open: 1.1369
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.1428
    Daily SMA50: 1.1388
    Daily SMA100: 1.146
    Daily SMA200: 1.1599
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.1392
    Previous Daily Low: 1.1357
    Previous Weekly High: 1.1491
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.1353
    Previous Monthly High: 1.1486
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.1269
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1378
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.137
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1353
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1338
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1318
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1388
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1407
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1423  

According to Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, the risks for Switzerland's economic and monetary outlook are to the downside. Key Quotes “

According to Charlotte de Montpellier, economist at ING, the risks for Switzerland's economic and monetary outlook are to the downside.Key Quotes“The international context could be even less favourable than expected, dragging down exports and pushing up the value of the Swiss franc.” “The difficult negotiations with the EU on the "framework agreement" are not over yet and still bring a lot of uncertainty.” “Federal elections will take place in Switzerland in October 2019. These could lead to a large victory of the main eurosceptic party, which would further cool relations between Switzerland and the EU. Given the current shortage of the labour force and the productivity problems in Switzerland, complicated relations between the two partners would have adverse consequences for the Swiss economy in the short- and medium-term.”

Mitul Kotecha , senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that weak Chinese trade data has major global ramifications as the front

Mitul Kotecha , senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that weak Chinese trade data has major global ramifications as the front loading is likely over and the outlook for trade with China has deteriorated.Key Quotes“A US/China trade deal may offer some solace, but we think any relief to Asian trade will be small compared with the impact of slowing US and Chinese growth.” “Similarly, Chinese stimulus is likely to be targeted and nuanced and will only be sufficient to prevent China experiencing a hard landing. Asia will not benefit greatly.” “Tech sector weakness is already particularly apparent and the outlook for Asia's tech exporters has worsened.” “In Asia, Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are most vulnerable, with their currencies likely to feel growing downside competitive pressures in the months ahead.”  

According to analysts at ANZ, economic momentum in the New Zealand economy is coming off the boil as the QSBO experienced weak trading activity data l

According to analysts at ANZ, economic momentum in the New Zealand economy is coming off the boil as the QSBO experienced weak trading activity data last week and contributed by the slowing population growth, labour shortages and squeezed profitability.Key Quotes“Growing off a strong base is harder, of course, and the data is still consistent with growth in a 2-3% range, a soft landing by anyone’s standards. But it’s worth taking a sideways look at the darkening clouds gathering around the global outlook.” “Fair to say the news on global manufacturing and trade has been pretty one-sided of late. But other sectors are looking more robust and New Zealand’s commodity prices are so far proving remarkably resilient.” “The highlight of the domestic data calendar this week is Q4 CPI inflation – we expect 0.0% q/q and a slight easing in annual CPI inflation to 1.8%.”

Following his take on the Chinese economy, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius now speaks about the Brexit issue. Key Headlines: Sees the most

Following his take on the Chinese economy, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius now speaks about the Brexit issue.Key Headlines:Sees the most likely Brexit scenario as a UK withdrawal from the EU. But a hard Brexit is only a 10% chance. On the EU: He expects very weak Italian growth, worse fiscal numbers.

Downward pressure on the economy will impact China's job market, the state planner warned on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Key quotes The overall j

Downward pressure on the economy will impact China's job market, the state planner warned on Tuesday, according to Reuters.Key quotesThe overall job market is stable, although it faces "new changes", said Meng Wei, the spokeswoman at the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). From the viewpoint of 'changes', the external environment is complex and austere. Within the changes, there is something to worry about, and there is downward pressure on the economy. To a certain extent, the pressure will be passed onto jobs. China is capable of keeping its economy growing within a reasonable range. China will encourage foreign firms to invest in its manufacturing sector.

Trapped in a falling channel, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at the session low of 0.7143 amid risk aversion in the equity markets. 4-hour cha

Trapped in a falling channel, the AUD/USD pair is currently trading at the session low of 0.7143 amid risk aversion in the equity markets.4-hour chartThe pair has charted a descending broadening channel on the 4-hour chart. The RSI is biased bearish below 50.00. The lower edge of the channel, currently at 0.7121, could be put to test in the next few hours as the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) downward revision of global growth forecasts has not gone down well with the investor community. This is evident from the risk aversion in the Asian stocks. The futures on the S&P 500are also reporting a 0.54 percent drop. Further, fading prospects for US-China trade accord could keep the risk assets under pressure. Channel breakdown (a move below 0.7121), if confirmed, would imply an end of the corrective bounce from the recent lows below 0.70.  Meanwhile, the upper edge of the channel, currently at 0.72, is the level to beat for the bulls.Trend: Bearish AUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7141
    Today Daily change: -0.0018 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.25%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7159
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7117
    Daily SMA50: 0.7183
    Daily SMA100: 0.7171
    Daily SMA200: 0.7314
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7182
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7139
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7156
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7166
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7138
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7117
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7181
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7203
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7225  

Credit deceleration (deleveraging) is the main factor responsible for the slowdown in China's economy, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan

Credit deceleration (deleveraging) is the main factor responsible for the slowdown in China's economy, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius.  The Chinese economy expanded at an annualized rate of 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter, the weakest growth rate since early 2009, pushing the 2018 GDP to a 28-year low.  While most blame the anemic domestic demand and the trade war for Chinese slowdown, Goldman Sachs' Hatzuis believes the crackdown on excess leverage is primarily responsible for cooling economy. Key quotesFed pause in rate hikes is appropriate.  Does not see a need for major changes in global forecasts. Sees some stabilization in the second half of this year. 
 

The USD/CNH pair (offshore yuan exchange rate) has created a narrowing price range or a contracting triangle on the hourly chart. Hourly chart The

The USD/CNH pair (offshore yuan exchange rate) has created a narrowing price range or a contracting triangle on the hourly chart.Hourly chartThe 50-hour moving average (HMA) is holding above the 200-HMA and is trending north in favor of the bulls. The ascending triangle breakout on the 14-hour relative strength index (RSI) also indicates that the path of least resistance is on the higher side. USD/CNH, therefore, is likely to confirm a bullish breakout with a convincing move above the upper edge of the triangle, currently at 6.8075. That would open up upside toward 6.8450 (Dec. 5 low).Trend: bullish above 6.8075 USD/CNH Overview:
    Today Last Price: 6.8056
    Today Daily change: 0.0046 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.07%
    Today Daily Open: 6.801
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 6.8327
    Daily SMA50: 6.8802
    Daily SMA100: 6.8907
    Daily SMA200: 6.7339
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 6.8088
    Previous Daily Low: 6.7917
    Previous Weekly High: 6.8098
    Previous Weekly Low: 6.7396
    Previous Monthly High: 6.9509
    Previous Monthly Low: 6.826
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 6.7982
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 6.8023
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 6.7922
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 6.7834
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 6.7751
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 6.8093
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 6.8176
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 6.8264  

Analysts at Westpac present a brief preview of New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report due later on Tuesday at 2145 GMT. Key Quotes: “The recent volatility

Analysts at Westpac present a brief preview of New Zealand’s Q4 2018 CPI report due later on Tuesday at 2145 GMT.Key Quotes:“The recent volatility in fuel prices will end up having little bearing on the December quarter figures, with the average price over the quarter close to unchanged.  While we expect headline inflation to come in a little below the Reserve Bank's November MPS forecast, that's entirely due to the subsequent drop in fuel prices. In contrast, we think underlying inflation will be stronger than the RBNZ's forecast, reflecting the tightening labor market and the lower New Zealand dollar.”

China's State Planner is out on the wires stating that the world's second largest economy does not pursue high-speed growth and will aim for a higher-

China's State Planner is out on the wires stating that the world's second largest economy does not pursue high-speed growth and will aim for a higher-quality growth. Essentially, China is unlikely to counter the ongoing economic slowdown with "flood-like" stimulus, as that usually leads to debt driven high-speed growth.

Gold is currently trading at $1,278; down 0.37 percent on the day. The yellow metal charted a bearish-lower high at $1,283.50 yesterday, validating t

Gold is under pressure in Asia, having witnessed range breakdown on Jan. 18.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed global growth forecasts on Monday. Sino-US trade talks are making little progress on key issues.The S&P 500 futures are reporting losses at press time. Even so, the yellow metal is struggling to find bids.Gold is currently trading at $1,278; down 0.37 percent on the day. The yellow metal charted a bearish-lower high at $1,283.50 yesterday, validating the range breakdown witnessed on Friday despite global growth concerns and the fading prospect of a breakthrough US-China trade deal. The IMF lowered estimates for growth in 2019 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, its second downward revision, this time on account of weakness in Germany and Turkey, according to CNN. The agency also cited trade war and Brexit as risks to the global economy. Notably, the Sino-US trade war is far from over. Moreover, both sides have made little or no progress on key issues like Chinese theft of American intellectual property. Hence, it is not surprising to see the futures on the S&P 500 trade in the red. As of writing, the futures are down 0.54 percent. Major Asian indices like Nikkei, S&P ASX 200, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are also reporting losses. Even so, the safe haven yellow metal is under pressure. So, it could be argued that the technical factors are overshadowing the fundamentals. As a result, the metal risks falling to $1,266 (23.6% Fib R of Aug low/Jan high).Gold Technical LevelsXAU/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1278.9
    Today Daily change: 2.90 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.23%
    Today Daily Open: 1276
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1284.24
    Daily SMA50: 1254.11
    Daily SMA100: 1233.77
    Daily SMA200: 1228.68
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1283.63
    Previous Daily Low: 1275.9
    Previous Weekly High: 1295.9
    Previous Weekly Low: 1276.2
    Previous Monthly High: 1284.7
    Previous Monthly Low: 1221.39
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1278.85
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1280.68
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1273.39
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1270.78
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1265.66
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1281.12
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1286.24
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1288.85  

Japanese Finance Minister Taro was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that its important fx rates are stable during the Golden Week holida

Japanese Finance Minister Taro was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that its important fx rates are stable during the Golden Week holidays. Aso further added that he does not expect any sort of crisis situation. It’s worth noting that the Golden Week holidays in Japan are from April 29th to May 6th. Earlier today, Japan's 40-year bond yield hit the lowest since December 2016

According to Bloomberg, the industry analysts and economists believe that China isn’t likely to rebound from its slowdown any time soon even amid sign

According to Bloomberg, the industry analysts and economists believe that China isn’t likely to rebound from its slowdown any time soon even amid signs policy makers are successfully cushioning some of its slowdown. Katrina Ell, an economist with Moody’s Analytics in Sydney, noted: “If China continues with its measured and piecemeal approach to stimulus, global growth will continue to lose momentum. The big unknown is how far China will go. Beijing’s preference has been to avoid repeating previous massive stimulus support, but they may be forced into more aggressive action if momentum continues to wane.” Capital Economics estimatea slower China expansion will shave about 0.2 percentage point off global growth this year, compared to 2018. Citigroup Inc. warned in a Jan. 14 note that the China slowdown may “blow the global economy off course.”  Chang Shu and David Qu at Bloomberg Economics said: “While the data appear to tell a "glass half full, half empty" story, market sentiment might be helped by the improvement in the indicators’ second derivatives -- in other words, the slower pace of deterioration -- and expectations of more policy support.”

The yields on the long duration Japanese government bonds (JGB) are feeling the pull of gravity. Notably, the 40-year JGB yield fell below 0.780 perc

The yields on the long duration Japanese government bonds (JGB) are feeling the pull of gravity. Notably, the 40-year JGB yield fell below 0.780 percent a few minutes before press time; the lowest level since December 2016. The decline could be associated with the 0.5 percent drop in the S&P 500 futures and the resulting haven demand for JGBs.

The AUD/JPY cross is trading in a sideways manner for the second day, having charted a doji candle on Friday, which represents indecision in the marke

The AUD/JPY cross is trading in a sideways manner for the second day, having charted a doji candle on Friday, which represents indecision in the marketplace.Daily chartFriday's doji indicates that the recovery rally from the Jan. 4 low of 75.24 has likely run out of steam. A convincing close below 78.39 (low of doji candle) would confirm a bear reversal. Meanwhile, 79.10 (high of doji candle) is the level to beat for the bulls. With the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) still biased bearish, the probability of a break below 78.39 is high. After all, the prospects of breakthrough US-China trade deal is quite low.Hourly chartThe pair is struggling to gather upside traction despite the ascending triangle breakout on the hourly chart. That only validates the bullish exhaustion signaled by Friday's doji candle.Trend: teasing bear reversal AUD/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 78.45
    Today Daily change: -0.07 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.09%
    Today Daily Open: 78.52
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 77.72
    Daily SMA50: 80.07
    Daily SMA100: 80.36
    Daily SMA200: 81.31
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 78.72
    Previous Daily Low: 78.28
    Previous Weekly High: 79.11
    Previous Weekly Low: 77.56
    Previous Monthly High: 84.05
    Previous Monthly Low: 77.15
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 78.45
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 78.55
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 78.3
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 78.07
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 77.85
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 78.74
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 78.95
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 79.18  

China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reported the latest comments delivered by the Chinese President Xi Jinping at an 'an unusual meeting of China's top

China’s state news agency, Xinhua, reported the latest comments delivered by the Chinese President Xi Jinping at an 'an unusual meeting of China's top leaders' on Monday in Beijing.Key Quotes (courtesy Bloomberg):Communist Party needed greater efforts "to prevent and resolve major risks".  "The party is facing long-term and complex tests in terms of maintaining long-term rule, reform and opening-up, a market-driven economy, and within the external environment.” "The party is facing sharp and serious dangers of slackness in spirit, lack of ability, distance from the people, and being passive and corrupt. This is an overall judgment based on the actual situation."

The Times newspaper reported the latest comments by the UK’s Work and Pensions Minister Amber Rudd warns over another UK political upheaval amid ongoi

The Times newspaper reported the latest comments by the UK’s Work and Pensions Minister Amber Rudd warns over another UK political upheaval amid ongoing Brexit saga. Rudd is “warning No 10 that it could face dozens of ministerial resignations next week if Tory MPs are banned from voting for a plan that helps stop a no-deal Brexit.” 

The People's Bank of China set the yuan reference rate at 6.7854 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7774.

The People's Bank of China set the yuan reference rate at 6.7854 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7774.

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its overnight consolidative mode into Asia, as the bulls continue to face exhaustion near seven-week tops of 54.48

Lifted by OPEC output cuts, falling rigs count while global growth concerns keep the upside capped.Focus on US-China trade talks and US supply reports for fresh trades. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) extends its overnight consolidative mode into Asia, as the bulls continue to face exhaustion near seven-week tops of 54.48 levels. The black gold trades modestly flat in today’s trading so far, as the sentiment remains weighed by global growth concerns after both the IMF and United Nations (UN) downgraded their outlooks. Meanwhile, the latest Chinese GDP report confirmed China slowdown fears and added further to the gloomy global economic outlook. On Monday, the barrel of WTI extended its last week’s rally and hit fresh multi-week tops amid positive oil supply-side scenario, with the OPEC output cuts underway and falling US rigs count. According to the latest drilling sector activity report released by the US energy services firm Baker Hughes, energy companies cut the number of rigs drilling for oil by 21 last week, the biggest decline in three years, taking the count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, Reuters cited. Markets now look forward to the US-China trade talks and sentiment on the global equities for fresh momentum until the release of the API crude stockpiles data due tomorrow.WTI Technical Levels WTI Overview:
    Today Last Price: 53.97
    Today Daily change: -0.26 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.48%
    Today Daily Open: 54.23
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 49.63
    Daily SMA50: 50.88
    Daily SMA100: 59.56
    Daily SMA200: 64.03
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 54.51
    Previous Daily Low: 53.6
    Previous Weekly High: 54.17
    Previous Weekly Low: 50.65
    Previous Monthly High: 54.68
    Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 54.16
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 53.95
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 53.72
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 53.2
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 52.81
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 54.63
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 55.02
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 55.54  

USD/JPY has been a sideways drift on Monday following a risk-off European session that morphed into a quiet North America session with traders away on

USD/JPY is currently consolidated at the 50% Fibo retracement of the Oct decline to YTD low at 109.75ish, depending on where your broker marks the flash crash low. USD/JPY is currently trading at 109.62, slightly up from the Asian low at 109.59 and below the 109.70 high. USD/JPY has been a sideways drift on Monday following a risk-off European session that morphed into a quiet North America session with traders away on a long weekend, honouring the Martin Luther King Jr day.  However, headlines continued to roll out following the IMF's second recent downgrade of global growth and soft Chinese data, which is concerning investors following a spree of risk on trade that has seen a strong recovery in USD/JPY.  "Media reports of hurdles in the US-China trade negotiations over intellectual property and the lowering of IMF forecasts added to the mild softening in sentiment, especially given the IMF report stressing increased downside risks from protracted trade disputes and Brexit uncertainty," analysts at Westpac Bank explained.  Futures yields were generally softer, reflecting the slip in risk sentiment as well which could come into play when US traders return into the 29th day of the partial US government shutdown, with S&P futures currently -0.3%.  "The partial federal government shutdown enters its fourth week, the longest on record in modern times, with no end in sight. The adverse effects on the US economy grow geometrically with the length of the shutdown; the CEA estimates the GDP growth drag is now 0.13pp per week. At this point, the earliest Dec PCE inflation or Q4 GDP growth will be released is well into February," analysts at TD Securities explained. The week aheadFor the day ahead, the calendar is dead, although the week will pick up when full markets return and a number of risk events start to kick in, including Aussie jobs, NZ CPI and the ECB decision - likely to be the main event of the week outside of any unscheduled geopolitical noise and headlines that have the tendency to move the markets one way or the other. USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 109.40 109.05 108.65.          Resistance levels: 110.00 110.45 110.90.Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explained that from a technical point of view, the pair holds on to its positive stance: "Technical indicators in the mentioned chart remain directionless well above their midlines and barely retreating from their daily highs. A steeper recovery will likely come once stops get triggered beyond 110.00, while the risk will probably turn back south if the pair losses 109.05, a strong Fibonacci support."

The latest Reuters Corporate Survey showed that a majority of the Japanese firms want to maintain their capex plan in the next fiscal year. Key Findi

The latest Reuters Corporate Survey showed that a majority of the Japanese firms want to maintain their capex plan in the next fiscal year.Key Findings:“52% of Japan firms to keep capex plan steady next fiscal year, 22% to expand, 14% to increase moderately, 12% to cut. 42% plan to hike base pay this year, of which 75% to raise by as much as last year. 41% expect profit to fall next FY due to trade friction, protectionism; 38% expect sales decline; a quarter to review supply chain.”

The bears continue to guard the 141.50 barrier, leaving the GBP/JPY cross largely unchanged in a tight range, as the focus shifts towards the UK labor

May’s Plan B keep the GBP underpinned, as risk bites amid global growth concerns.Looks bullish on hourly set up, a test of 142.00 likely on upbeat UK wages. The bears continue to guard the 141.50 barrier, leaving the GBP/JPY cross largely unchanged in a tight range, as the focus shifts towards the UK labor market report for a fresh directional move.   Despite the consolidation phase, the cross remains underpinned by the buoyant tone seen around the Cable, as markets cheered the UK PM May’s Brexit plan B, in which she cited that the UK government doesn’t rule out a no-deal Brexit while turning down on the idea of a second referendum. However, with the safe-haven Yen in demand across the board amid global growth concerns, the spot remains on the defensive so far this session, but looks poised for further upside and could test the 142 handle should the UK jobs data deliver a positive surprise in the November earnings numbers.GBP/JPY Technical LevelsGBP/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 141.39
    Today Daily change: -0.03 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.02%
    Today Daily Open: 141.42
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 139.47
    Daily SMA50: 142.11
    Daily SMA100: 144.45
    Daily SMA200: 145.48
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 141.54
    Previous Daily Low: 140.69
    Previous Weekly High: 142.22
    Previous Weekly Low: 137.36
    Previous Monthly High: 145.52
    Previous Monthly Low: 138.86
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 141.21
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 141.01
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 140.89
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 140.37
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 140.04
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 141.75
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 142.07
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 142.6  

Markets traded mostly quietly given the US holiday overnight but European equities weakened a little despite as traders soaked up the soft Chinese dat

Global growth fears spark up risk-off trade, playing into the bear's hands.With US markets closed on Monday, AUD/USD edged down around -0.2% over the day, reflecting slightly softer risk sentiment in Europe and the cross slid to print a fresh hourly swing low in the corrective phase.AUD/JPY is currently trading at 78.48, slightly below the daily pivot point.Markets traded mostly quietly given the US holiday overnight but European equities weakened a little despite as traders soaked up the soft Chinese data and ignored the robust performance in Asia's gains. AUD/USD was a touch lower on the day, around 0.7160 which sent the cross lower to print a fresh hourly swing low of 78.28. Despite the Chinese data dump and softness, the IMF shaving 0.2%pts off their 2019 global growth forecast to 3.5% was the big noise in the markets. The fund is citing softer momentum in H2 2018, particularly across Europe, which is weakening financial market sentiment ahead of the ECB later this week and weighs on high beta FX such as the antipodes. The fund's 2020 outlook was trimmed 0.1%pts to 3.6% and is the second downgrade in a row (the last was in October).Eyes on Brexit and China risks"While there have been some positive developments in recent weeks (some rebound in manufacturing data and progress towards US-China trade talks), risks remain skewed towards weaker growth, with a “no deal” Brexit and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China getting a special mention," analysts at ANZ Bank explained.  Australia’s calendar is quiet again today but we have the Dec employment data on Thursday. AUD/JPY levels  AUD/JPY is chipping away at the downside, eyeing a break of S1 located at 78.37 and target  S2 and the confluence of the round 78 level and 200-hr SMA at 78.13 just slightly ahead. There is a cluster of fractals located around S3 at 77.74. On the flip side, should the price manage to break through the weekly pivot of 78.50 and close higher than 79.10, this would leave a bullish tint on the market considering the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the mid-Sep 2017 and 2018 decline at 78.75 has been left behind and bulls are in charge, targetting weekly R3 ad confluence of the 505 Fibo of the same retracement at 80.94/84 respectively.     

Its annual economic forecast, the “World Economic Situation and Prospects, released late-Monday, the United Nations (UN) noted that it sees the global

Its annual economic forecast, the “World Economic Situation and Prospects, released late-Monday, the United Nations (UN) noted that it sees the global economy to grow 3.0% this year and in 2020, slightly below a 3.1% expansion in 2018.Key Comments from Richard Kozul-Wright, Head of Globalization and Development Strategies at the UN economic agency UNCTAD.“There are plenty of yellow lights flashing and some of those yellow lights are almost certainly likely to turn red over the coming year, with very unpredictable consequences.”  “Growth is fragile, huge uncertainties remain, risks are looming. We have not broken away from the legacy of the financial crisis of 2008-2009. We are still in a new abnormal.”

Oil daily chart Crude oil WTI is in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). However, bulls broke above the 54.00 fig

Oil daily chartCrude oil WTI is in a bear trend below the 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).However, bulls broke above the 54.00 figure and the 50 SMA.Oil 4-hour chartWTI bulls have reclaimed the main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the near-term.Oil 30-minute chartWTI is set to depreciate below the 54.50 resistance as bears might lead the market to 53.50 support. Additional key levels  WTI Overview:
    Today Last Price: 54.23
    Today Daily change: 0.12 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.22%
    Today Daily Open: 54.11
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 49.2
    Daily SMA50: 50.93
    Daily SMA100: 59.71
    Daily SMA200: 64.11
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 54.17
    Previous Daily Low: 52.4
    Previous Weekly High: 54.17
    Previous Weekly Low: 50.65
    Previous Monthly High: 54.68
    Previous Monthly Low: 42.45
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 53.49
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 53.08
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 52.95
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 51.79
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 51.18
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 54.72
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 55.33
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 56.49  

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 3.1%, above forecasts (2.8%) in 4Q

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) came in at 1%, above forecasts (0.6%) in 4Q

Italy’s Economy Minister Tria was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, making some comments on the IMF’s global growth downgrade and the Brexit is

Italy’s Economy Minister Tria was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, making some comments on the IMF’s global growth downgrade and the Brexit issue.Main Headlines:Policies recommended by IMF pose economic risks. Italy does not pose risk to European/global economy. Italy is working on rules to face possible hard Brexit. Italian public finances not at risk. It is completely wrong to discuss now of additional budget measures for 2019.

The AUD/USD pair continues to trade around a flat line around the 0.7155 level in early trades, having faltered the recovery from 0.7140 troughs amid

Digesting Trump’s comments on China GDP while global growth concerns continue to weigh. Bulls await the sentiment on the Tokyo open for the next push higher. The AUD/USD pair continues to trade around a flat line around the 0.7155 level in early trades, having faltered the recovery from 0.7140 troughs amid a cautious risk environment, as markets digest the latest Chinese GDP numbers and the downward revision to the global growth outlook by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Chinese GDP report showed that the country’s economic growth slowed down to 6.4% in Q4 2018, the weakest since 1990. Meanwhile, the bulls derive support from the latest comments by the US President Trump, as he called for China to reach a “Real” trade deal following the dismal economic growth figures. Further, markets await fresh trading impetus from the Tokyo open, as the US holiday-led thin trading has had virtually no impact on the spot. In the day ahead, the focus remains on the US-China trade-related headlines and the US existing home sales data for near-term trading opportunities. In the meantime, the pair will continue to take its cues from the risk trends and USD dynamics.AUD/USD Technical LevelsAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7156
    Today Daily change: -0.0012 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.17%
    Today Daily Open: 0.7168
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7112
    Daily SMA50: 0.7183
    Daily SMA100: 0.7172
    Daily SMA200: 0.7317
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7215
    Previous Daily Low: 0.7161
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7226
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7146
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7394
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.7014
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7182
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7194
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7148
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7128
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7095
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7202
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7235
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7255  

US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day so European markets were therefore quiet. However, equities remained under downward pressure which d

NZD/USD has been giving off bearish smoke signals with a pop lower overnight to score a fresh swing low of 0.6713 within the negative flow.  NZD/USD edged down around -0.2% over the day, reflecting slightly softer risk sentiment in Europe.US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Day so European markets were therefore quiet. However, equities remained under downward pressure which dragged on high beta currencies such as the bird. Investors are anxious over the global growth outlook that continues following yesterday’s mixed Chinese GDP release and another downgrade for the global growth outlook from the IMF.   "USD rallied on trade concerns and as weakness in Chinese data weighed on commodity currencies (though it perhaps wasn’t as bad as some had feared)," analysts at ANZ Bank explained. "Eyes now turn to NZ CPI tomorrow. A negative or a widely-expected zero print could weigh, with markets increasingly expecting a more dovish RBNZ in February. In our view, the mix of inflation will matter; watch the non-tradable component."NZD/USD levelsSupport 0.6650  Resistance 0.6860 The price was rejected the 200-hr SMA on two breakup occasions of late and the doji formed on the 14th Jan has played out into a series of lower highs on a daily time frame basis. Overnight price action has printed a fresh swing low and technical indicators remain bearish. The price is now testing below the 21-D SMA located at 0.6740 with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low and a break below there will open up 0.6705. A break of the 100-D SMA at 0.6688 with daily closes will sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo.

A German Government Spokesman is out on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that Germany continues to campaign for an orderly exit of the UK from the E

A German Government Spokesman is out on the wires now, via Reuters, noting that Germany continues to campaign for an orderly exit of the UK from the European Union (EU). The official also added Germany expects the British government to agree soon on proposals backed by a majority of parliament.

DXY daily chart DXY is trading in a bull trend above the 100 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA). DXY 4-hour chart DXY bulls have reclai

DXY daily chartDXY is trading in a bull trend above the 100 and 200-day simple moving average (SMA).DXY 4-hour chartDXY bulls have reclaimed the 50 and 100 SMA but they need to overcome the 200 SMA. DXY 30-minute chartDXY bulls are still in charge and they might reach the 96.50 target as they have the momentum on their side.However, it is unlikely that any sustained move above 96.50 might go very far as 96.00 is still on the card for DXY bears. Additional key levels  Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.34
    Today Daily change: -0.03 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 96.37
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.18
    Daily SMA50: 96.65
    Daily SMA100: 96.07
    Daily SMA200: 95.02
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.4
    Previous Daily Low: 96.01
    Previous Weekly High: 96.4
    Previous Weekly Low: 95.47
    Previous Monthly High: 97.71
    Previous Monthly Low: 96.06
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.25
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.16
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.12
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 95.87
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 95.73
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.51
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.65
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 96.9  

Reuters reports the latest update on the Brexit issue, citing that the UK opposition party, the Labor Party, proposes the option of a second Brexit re

Reuters reports the latest update on the Brexit issue, citing that the UK opposition party, the Labor Party, proposes the option of a second Brexit referendum. Nothing further is reported on the same. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair trades better bid just shy of the 1.29 handle, as markets digest the UK PM May’s Plan B.Key Notes:UK shares soak up Chinese data and Plan B Brexit; FTSE ended +0.03% UK PM May: Looking forward to seeing Poland's proposal for time limit on backstop

The US President Donald Trump took to Twitter to offer his thoughts on the latest Chinese growth numbers released a day before.

The US President Donald Trump took to Twitter to offer his thoughts on the latest Chinese growth numbers released a day before.
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