Bảng Tin tức Forex

One-month 25 delta USD/CNY risk reversals (CNY1MRR) fell on Monday to the lowest level since the end of August, indicating that investors are likely expecting a pullback in the USD/CNY and hence are seeking a downside protection (USD/CNY puts).   The risk reversals gauge currently stands at -0.05, the lowest since Aug. 29.  Risk reversals are a gauge of investor expectations for a currency's direction and are used to hedge against expected moves. The negative print indicates greater demand for put options  – derivatives that give investors the right to sell an asset. On the other hand, a positive risk reversals number indicates greater demand for calls  – options that give investors the right to buy the asset. The drop in the risk reversals from the Oct. 26 high of 1.025 to -0.05 represents a bullish-to-bearish trend change in the USD/CNY options market.CNY1MRR 

As reported by Bloomberg, declines in oil prices are forming up a catalyst relationship with emerging markets.Key quotes"Last week’s slide in crude was partly behind the weakness in the Russian ruble, Mexican peso and Malaysian ringgit, according to Societe Generale SA. With oil wallowing in a bear market, OPEC and its allies gathered in Abu Dhabi on Sunday to weigh production cuts. “Oil-importing emerging economies’ currencies would likely react negatively to a cut in OPEC output given Iranian oil exports are already likely to wane over time under the impact of U.S. sanctions,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, the Singapore-based head of foreign-exchange strategy at NatWest Markets. “In contrast, if oil prices fall it will benefit the currencies of major oil-importing emerging markets including the Indian rupee and Turkish lira.” The outlook for oil, a key source of revenue for Russia and Saudi Arabia, is adding a fresh twist for a market already obsessed with Federal Reserve tightening and the U.S.-China trade dispute. The prospect of any breakthrough on trade took a knock Friday when White House trade adviser Peter Navarro warned Wall Street not to pressure President Donald Trump into a quick deal. Adipec conference starts Monday in Abu Dhabi, with hundreds of oil executives and government officials attending, following OPEC/non-OPEC committee meetings over the weekend."

Comments from China's Finance Minister are crossing the wires: Will lower tax burden for exporters. Will step up tax reduction. Will further reduce fees for companies.

EUR/JPY moved above 129.00 a few minutes before press time, having charted a lower high around 130.00 last week.The pair is mildly bid amid gains in the Asian stocks.Looming Italy crisis could cap gains in the common currency.The EUR/JPY is currently reporting marginal gains above 129.12, having clocked a low of 128.77 earlier today. The recovery from the session lows is likely associated with the gains in the Asian equities. For instance, the Shanghai Composite index is up 0.4 percent. Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng are also flashing green. Meanwhile, stocks in New Zealand, South Korea are reporting moderate losses. The common currency may have also picked up a bid on reports that Italy is considering trimming its growth forecasts to secure a budget deal with the European Union (EU).   The gains in the EUR/JPY, however, could be short-lived if the spread between Italy and German bond yields spikes courtesy of a standoff between Rome and Brussels. The troubled nation has until Tuesday to submit a revised budget draft to the EU.EUR/JPY Technical LevelsEUR/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 129.12
    Daily change: 10 pips
    Daily change: 0.0775%
    Daily Open: 129.02
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 128.85
    Daily SMA50: 129.91
    Daily SMA100: 129.52
    Daily SMA200: 130.24
Levels:
    Daily High: 129.68
    Daily Low: 128.74
    Weekly High: 130.16
    Weekly Low: 128.6
    Monthly High: 132.49
    Monthly Low: 126.63
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 129.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 129.32
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 128.61
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 128.21
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 127.67
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 129.55
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 130.08
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 130.49  

Early-market action is seeing markets recover from a bearish opening.Monday data and trade volumes will both be limited.The AUD/JPY is trading into 82.50 in early Monday action as broader markets regain their bullish posture despite a bearish gap opening the week's candlesticks. Economic data has been thin for the early Asian market session, although Domestic Corporate Goods Prices for Japan came in largely as-expected, and Monday can expect to carry on with thin volumes amidst an anemic data calendar and a US Thanksgiving long weekend keeping the later day's volumes constrained, and traders will be awaiting the mid-week's higher-impact economic readings. Trade war concerns continue to be a major narrative for the Pacific-Asia session, and a recent thawing between the US and China could spiral out into a fresh round of broad-market risk aversion if trade war rhetoric returns to the fold.AUD/JPY Technical LevelsAUD/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 82.39
    Daily change: 21 pips
    Daily change: 0.256%
    Daily Open: 82.18
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 80.55
    Daily SMA50: 80.62
    Daily SMA100: 81.25
    Daily SMA200: 82.09
Levels:
    Daily High: 82.88
    Daily Low: 82.11
    Weekly High: 83.06
    Weekly Low: 81.24
    Monthly High: 82.5
    Monthly Low: 78.56
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 82.41
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 82.59
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 81.9
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 81.62
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 81.12
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 82.67
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 83.17
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 83.45  

US Vice President Pence, during a weeklong tour of Asia, will flesh out the US administration's strategy for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Pence is reportedly considering speaking to Japanese Prime Minister Abe about the trade agreement.Key quotes (Source: LiveSquawk) Hopes US and China have a positive relationship Trump's absence at Asia Summits is not a snub

The AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7234, up 0.10 percent on the day, having clocked a high of 0.7303 last week.On the hourly chart, the pair has charted a falling wedge pattern. A breakout would be confirmed if the current hourly candle closes above 0.7232 and would mean that the pullback has likely ended at 0.7214 and could yield a re-test of 0.7303.The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is biased bullish above 50.00 and the 5-day and 10-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are trending north. Hence, a falling wedge breakout looks likely.The bullish pressure would weaken if the spot closes below the ascending 10-day EMA, currently at 0.6690.Hourly ChartTrend: Bullish AUD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.7231
    Daily change: 3.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0415%
    Daily Open: 0.7228
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7141
    Daily SMA50: 0.7161
    Daily SMA100: 0.7263
    Daily SMA200: 0.747
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.7272
    Daily Low: 0.7218
    Weekly High: 0.7304
    Weekly Low: 0.7183
    Monthly High: 0.724
    Monthly Low: 0.702
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7239
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7252
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7207
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.7186
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.7153
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.726
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7293
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7314  

Gold is stationary in Asia on Monday as the markets consolidate with a US holiday to get through before key events such as US CPI will hit the slate.Gold has been suffering on higher US rates and the recent Fed comments which have been supporting the upside bias in the dollar. Gold has been underwater of late, falling from the early November highs at $1,243 and landing al the way down through the 38.2% Fibo to score a recent low of $1,206.89. On Friday, the safe haven metal could not even rally as US stocks came off, following the lead from another weak performance in China and as a result, the precious metal suffered a fourth loss in five sessions.  Gold is unwinding the speculative longs that had increased leading into the FOMC meeting and Midterm elections during shaky grounds for equities and the prospects of gridlock. However, the Fed's affirmation that it will be sticking to its preset hiking path has prompted the market to reverse its positioning which ultimately helped the greenback to strengthen and challenged gold prices. "With tail-risks out of the way, we would not be surprised to see gold length resume its downward trajectory for now," analysts at TD Securities argued.US CPI outlookFor the week ahead, there will be a focus on US CPI. Analysts at Nomura are expecting a steady 0.231% (2.192% y-o-y) m-o-m in core CPI inflation in October: "Idiosyncratic declines in some components of the core CPI in September will likely revert in October. In particular, used vehicle prices declined 3.0% m-o-m in September and contributed to the downside surprise in core CPI inflation relative to our forecast. Most other core CPI components were in line with our expectations and support our medium term inflation outlook. At the moment, we think the decline in used vehicle prices was transitory and should partially revert in October. Moreover, the notable slowdown in homeowners’ equivalent rent (HOER) in September was concentrated in the Midwest, implying that HOER inflation should pick up in October, and we expect a 0.26% m-o-m increase in rent CPI. Elsewhere, we expect a modest 0.5% m-o-m increase in lodging-away-from-home prices, a 2.9% decline in airline fare prices."Gold levelsIf bears can stay below the 50-D SMA now at 1210, having broken the 38.2% target and the 30th Oct stick's lows at $1,212, the next key target is the $1,201 50% retracement. Bulls will need to get back above the $1229 (key pivot) area that then opens $1243 (Oct. 26 high) before the $1250 (psychological level) and the July high $1,266.      

The last twenty-fours of trading activity, spanning last Friday and the early Monday sessions, sees the GBP/JPY slipping steadily lower, with steady up-moves getting knocked to the downside in rapid, intraday sell-offs as market confidence shakes out at regular intervals, fueled largely by market hopes of Brexit deals failing to mesh well with reality.GBP/JPY M5In recent weeks, the Guppy enjoyed a rock-steady buildup on a fresh round of Brexit hopes, but reality has come crashing back down for the Sterling, and the GBP/JPY has seen an inversion of the 50- and 200-period near-term moving averages, suggesting that further declines are waiting in the wings.GBP/JPY M30Going back over the past month, the GBP/JPY has reached a critical inflection point: a bullish rebound off of the key 200-hour moving average from the 147.00 handle looks to be in the works, fueled by a confluence of the key 38.2% Fibo retracement level, but sellers will be looking to reload their positions on a continued move lower if the Guppy can't maintain long-side momentum above 149.50.GBP/JPY H1GBP/JPY Overview:
    Last Price: 147.44
    Daily change: -14 pips
    Daily change: -0.0949%
    Daily Open: 147.58
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 146.37
    Daily SMA50: 146.72
    Daily SMA100: 145.81
    Daily SMA200: 147.4
Levels:
    Daily High: 149.08
    Daily Low: 147.5
    Weekly High: 149.5
    Weekly Low: 146.86
    Monthly High: 149.52
    Monthly Low: 142.78
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 148.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 148.48
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 147.03
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 146.48
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 145.45
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 148.61
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 149.63
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 150.19  

Premier Li Keqiang is out on the wires stating that China is committed to opening up the economy and needs to increase support for private and small and micro enterprises.  “The demand for loans from enterprises is very strong, but the problem is that private enterprises with demand, especially small and micro enterprises, cannot borrow money, and banks not only have strict conditions for granting loans, but also are afraid of taking risks and responsibility,” said Li during the State Council executive meeting, according to Asia Times.         

Analysts at Rabobank explained that today is data-light but noted the week ahead's key Tomorrow has German CPI, UK unemployment, Germany’s ZEW survey, and the US NFIB survey.Key Quotes:"Wednesday has Japanese GDP and a Chinese data blast of retail sales, industrial production, and fixed investment, then German Q3 GDP – which is seen -0.1% q-o-q – and UK CPI, then Eurozone Q3 GDP, expected to be as damp as the weather. We also get US CPI, and hear from the Fed’s Powell overnight. Thursday it’s Aussie jobs and UK retail sales, US retail sales, and the Philly Fed survey. Friday has Eurozone CPI, and then US industrial production. In short, a busy data week, and another five days towards the G20 showdown in Argentina…and of the stench of Goldman Sachs (in which case sell USD), or of panic (in which case buy it)?"

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.9476 vs Friday's fix of 6.9560. 

As noted by The Globe and Mail, Saudi Arabia is set to go ahead with plans to begin clamping down on oil production, wiping up to half a million barrels per day off of their outflows in an effort to put a floor underneath crude's recent declines.Key quotes"Saudi Arabia plans to reduce oil supply to world markets by 0.5 million barrels per day in December, its energy minister said on Sunday, as the OPEC power faces uncertain prospects in its attempts to persuade other producers to agree a coordinated output cut. Khalid al-Falih told reporters that Saudi Aramco’s customer crude oil nominations would fall by 500,000 bpd in December versus November due to seasonal lower demand. The cut represents a reduction in global oil supply of about 0.5 per cent. Saudi Arabia has increased output by just about 1 million bpd this year under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and other consuming countries to help balance the market to compensate for lower supplies from Iran due to U.S. sanctions. But since Iran’s customers were given generous waivers to continue buying crude, concerns grew about market oversupply and oil prices fell to below US$70 per barrel on Friday from US$85 a barrel in October. “We have been increasing production in response to demand,” Falih told reporters in Abu Dhabi ahead of a joint OPEC, non-OPEC market monitoring committee meeting."

The NZD/USD defended key support at 0.6726 (23.6% Fib R of 0.6424/0.6819) a few minutes before press time, despite the drop in the ANZ's New Zealand monthly inflation gauge fell in October.The details of the ANZ's report indicate that inflation is broadening.The gains could be limited by growing Fed-RBNZ policy divergence.The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6736 – up 0.15 percent on the day – having clocked a low of 0.6723 earlier today. The ANZ's New Zealand Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4% m/m (up 2.9% y/y) in October, kicking Q4 off on a softer note. The details of the report released a few minutes before press time, however, show that price pressures are broadening. That may have helped the Kiwi bounce off the 23.6% Fib retracement level of 0.6726. The gains, however, could be limited or short-lived as the ANZ's inflation data is unlikely to force the RBNZ to adopt a hawkish bias. The Fed, meanwhile, reaffirmed its tightening stance last week, setting the stage for a 25 basis point rate hike in December and three more rate hikes in 2019. Simply put, the divergence between the Fed and the RBNZ is set to grow further. So, it seems safe to say that for the greenback, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. Even so, the NZD/USD looks north on the daily chart, having witnessed a symmetrical triangle breakout on Nov. 1.  A break above 0.6819 (Nov. 7 high) would further bolster the already bullish technical setup.NZD/USD Technical LevelsNZD/USD Overview:
    Last Price: 0.674
    Daily change: 2.0 pips
    Daily change: 0.0297%
    Daily Open: 0.6738
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.66
    Daily SMA50: 0.6579
    Daily SMA100: 0.6658
    Daily SMA200: 0.6905
Levels:
    Daily High: 0.6768
    Daily Low: 0.6728
    Weekly High: 0.682
    Weekly Low: 0.6632
    Monthly High: 0.663
    Monthly Low: 0.6424
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6743
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6752
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.6721
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6704
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6681
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6761
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.6784
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6801  

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Model projection: 6.9505 versus 6.9329 previous (176 pips higher; 65 pips higher from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 6.9399 (70 pips higher from previous fix)."

USD/JPY is creeping higher in the Tokyo open in a positive environment for the dollar, currently trading at 113.89 from a low of 113.81.USD/JPY bulls can target the 114.10 initial resistance.USD/JPY continues to climb from 111.38 26th Oct lows with little in the ay of setbacks as the dollar finds support on interest rate differentials. The FOMC last week fuelled another advance in the greenback, pushing the DXY back tot he 97 handle again.Markets will continue to trade election implications and equity sentimentHowever, from here on, given that there were only marginal changes at the November statement, markets will continue to trade election implications and equity sentiment for direction in the near-term.  As analysts at ING Bank have noted, the US midterms threw up some surprises, but we have a split Congress. "President Trump's legislative agenda risks being constrained as a result, which will make it harder to generate a platform that will stand him in good stead for a defence of his presidency in 2020." With eyes on the spread, the US 10-year yields are supporting the dollar vs the yen which remain elevated. However, the US 10yr treasury yield fell from 3.23% to 3.18% on Friday, only briefly buoyed by firm PPI data. With regards to the 2yr yields fell from 2.96% to 2.92%. Fed fund futures yields repriced the chance of another rate hike in December at 75% (from 80%).USD/JPY levelsSupport levels: 113.85 113.40 113.00    Resistance level: 114.10 114.55 114.90Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the USD/JPY pair maintains its positive tone in the daily chart, although the upward momentum seems limited: "It develops well above a bullish 100 DMA, while technical indicators ease within positive ground. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is quite alike, as the 100 and 200 SMA are some 100 pips below the current level, while technical indicators hold well into positive territory but without offering directional clues, the Momentum easing modestly and the RSI flat around 60. Beyond 114.10, the pair could extend its gains up to 114.54, October monthly high, with gains beyond this last unclear at the time being."

As reported by the UK's Telegraph media outlet, the UK's ex-Brexit minister, Boris Johnson, is accusing the PM's current Brexit plans as a recipe for a captive UK, and Johnson continues to call for a Cabinet mutiny against Prime Minister Theresa May.Key quotes"Writing in The Telegraph, the former foreign secretary says the Prime Minister is "on the verge of total surrender" to Brussels and says her plans are a "recipe for continued strife". Urging people to "savour the full horror of this capitulation", he says Mrs May's plans for a customs union backstop are "shameful" and cannot be "conceivably" supported by any of her Cabinet. Over the weekend the EU rejected the Prime Minister's plan for an "independent mechanism" that would enable Britain to break off temporary customs arrangements with Brussels after Brexit. The deadlock will increase pressure on the Prime Minister at Cabinet tomorrow, where a final decision on Mrs May's Brexit plans is now likely to be delayed while negotiations with the EU continue. It leaves the Prime Minister struggling to secure a November summit with European leaders to sign off her Brexit plans, increasing the risk that Britain will leave without a deal.  Mr Johnson's intervention comes after the resignation last week of his brother, Jo, who said the Prime Minister's handling of Brexit represented a "failure of British statecraft on a scale unseen since the Suez crisis". The former foreign secretary says that the backstop, which will keep Britain in a customs union with the Brussels if no solution to the Irish border issue can be found, is worse than being in the EU."

Italy’s economy minister is looking to revise down the budget’s growth forecast for next year to convince the EU that Italy would not go above a deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP in 2019, a source told Reuters on Sunday. In early October, Italy revised up its growth forecasts, with 2019 gross domestic product growth estimated at 1.5 percent, according to Reuters. The Commission rejected Italy’s fiscal plan for 2019 last month and may start disciplinary steps against Rome later this month.

The Fiber opens the new week testing into major lows.Risk sentiment across the board is seeing a halting start to the new trading week. The EUR/USD is trading near 1.1325 after taking an early-Monday plunge into near-term lows as the broader market opens the new trading week with risk appetite notably skewed into the downside, and the 1.1300 major handle is going to be a key point of contention heading through the week. This week opens on a quiet note, and the economic calendar is all but empty for the Euro's opening sessions, and US markets enjoying a Thanksgiving long weekend, but the mid-week promises plenty of action with German and EU-wide GDP figures on Wednesday, with Eurozone inflation numbers due at the end of the week as well. Riskier FX pairs are struggling to find a foothold after getting knocked lower on the market open, fueled largely by weekend headlines that the two sides of Brexit negotiations continue to drift further apart, and self-imposed deadlines of presenting workable deals continue to slip by with no progress seen. Italy also remains a point of contention on the Euro, and Italy's current economy minister will be looking at revising Italian growth projections lower in an effort to reach middle ground with the European Commission which remains irate at Italy's spend-heavy deficit budget, but the reach across the aisle could fall on deaf ears is the commission asks Italy how they expect to close the current budget deficit with lower growth expectations.EUR/USD levels to watchOdds of a bearish continuation are on the rise, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the daily chart shows that, after reaching the 38.2% retracement of its September/October decline mid-week, the pair retraced quickly, increasing chances of a bearish breakout in the upcoming days. In the same chart, the 20 SMA acted as dynamic resistance throughout the week, now accelerating south below the larger ones and converging with the 23.6% retracement of the mentioned decline around 1.1420. The Momentum indicator stabilized within negative territory, while the RSI heads south, currently at 37, keeping the risk skewed to the downside. In the 4 hours chart, and for the shorter term, the bearish potential is also strong, as the 20 SMA changed course and now heads slower alongside with the 100 SMA in the 1.1400 area, while technical indicators lost downward strength near oversold readings at the end of the day as a result of decreasing volume, far from indicating downside exhaustion." Support levels: 1.1300 1.1265 1.1230 Resistance levels: 1.1370 1.1420 1.1460

The ANZ New Zealand Monthly Inflation Gauge fell 0.4 percent month-on-month (up 2.9 percent year-on-year) in October, following a 0.6 percent month-on-month (2.5 percent year-on-year) rise in June. Key points16 of the 36 categories lifted in the month, which is well above the average of 10 since the Gauge’s conception – a tentative signal that, just maybe, inflation is broadening. That said, most monthly gains were small. the October Gauge suggests inflationary pressures are at least tracking sideways heading into Q4, but it’s still early days. A bounce in accommodation services in November wouldn’t come as a surprise. There was only one area of significant weakness in the Gauge – the recently-volatile accommodation services component – and the number of components to lift in the month hit an 8-year high.    

Analysts at Nomura offered their outlook for the week ahead.Key Quotes:United States | Data previewEarly indicators of manufacturing sentiment could decline further in October; we expect a steady reading for core CPI month-on-month inflation. NY Fed survey of consumer expectations (Tuesday): Inflation expectations in the NY Fed’s survey remain within a steady range with both the one-year and three-year ahead expected inflation holding at 3.00% in September. Other indicators in the survey support an outlook for favorable consumer spending with elevated earnings growth expectations and a favorable evaluation of the labor market. US budget (Tuesday): October’s budget statement marks the beginning of FY19 where we expect the budget deficit to widen further after increasing markedly in FY18. Of particular interest in October will be the pattern of government defense spending as fiscal policy remains a key driver of US growth.  CPI (Wednesday): We expect a steady 0.231% (2.192% y-o-y) m-o-m in core CPI inflation in October. Idiosyncratic declines in some components of the core CPI in September will likely revert in October. In particular, used vehicle prices declined 3.0% m-o-m in September and contributed to the downside surprise in core CPI inflation relative to our forecast. Most other core CPI components were in line with our expectations and support our medium term inflation outlook. At the moment, we think the decline in used vehicle prices was transitory and should partially revert in October. Moreover, the notable slowdown in homeowners’ equivalent rent (HOER) in September was concentrated in the Midwest, implying that HOER inflation should pick up in October, and we expect a 0.26% m-o-m increase in rent CPI. Elsewhere, we expect a modest 0.5% m-o-m increase in lodging-away-from-home prices, a 2.9% decline in airline fare prices.  Among non-core components, we expect a modest 0.1% m-o-m increase in the CPI for food. The CPI for energy likely rebounded considering seasonally-adjusted prices of energy components. Altogether, we expect a solid 0.352% increase in headline CPI (2.555% y-o-y). Our forecast for CPI NSA is 252.965. Initial jobless claims (Thursday): The residual impact of recent inclement weather continues to show up in initial jobless claims data but we expect a continued downtrend over the medium term as the labor market remains strong. Empire State survey (Thursday): We expect the Empire State manufacturing survey index to fall to 20.0 in November after rebounding to 21.1 in October. We think concerns over logistics and trade tensions will continue to weigh on regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys although the momentum in the sector appears intact.  Philly Fed survey (Thursday): We expect the Philly Fed manufacturing survey index to fall to 21.0 in November after declining by 0.9pp to 22.2 in October, a still-healthy reading consistent with steady growth but possibly weighed down by concern over trade tensions. Import prices (Thursday): Import prices will likely hold steady in the near term as the US dollar remains elevated. Recent declines in crude oil prices will likely lead to declines in imported fuel prices and lower aggregate import prices. Excluding petroleum products, the inflation of imported ex-auto consumer goods will likely remain modest. Retail sales (Thursday): We expect a healthy 0.4% m-o-m increase in “core” retail sales in October, following a 0.5% gain in September. Consumer sentiment remains elevated despite recent stock market volatility and heightened concerns about global trade. The labor market remains strong and income gains have been steady. Considering these factors, we think personal spending momentum will remain robust in Q4. Among non-core components, sales at gasoline stations and building materials stores likely increased firmly. We expect a steady increase in receipts at autos and parts dealerships considering WardsAuto’s light vehicle sales data for October. Excluding autos and auto parts, we expect 0.6% m-o-m gain in retail sales. Altogether, we expect a 0.6% m-o-m increase.  Business inventories (Thursday): The business inventory report for September will likely reflect strong investment in inventories in Q3. The Census Bureau’s data suggest manufacturing inventories accumulation accelerated in September. Moreover, wholesale inventories picked up sharply in Q3, driven by buildup of agricultural products as well as autos. Advance data suggest retail inventories likely increased at a modest pace with a slight decline in non-auto components. Industrial production (Friday): We expect a soft 0.1% m-o-m increase in industrial production in October, following a 0.3% advance in September. The aggregate production in October was likely weighed down by a sharp pullback in autos production. Excluding autos, manufacturing sector output likely increased at a steady pace of around 0.3% in October after rising by only a modest 0.1% in September. Steady gains in exautos manufacturing output appear consistent with the healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector. The mining sector output will likely contribute steadily to aggregate output in October. Active oil and gas rig counts picked up in October, pointing to healthy drilling activity.Euro area | Data previewThe week ahead Euro area October final inflation and UK October inflation data will be in focus next week.  Germany ZEW Survey, Nov (Tuesday): We forecast a decline in the expectations component of the ZEW survey to -26.2 from -25.9 in October. The trade issues between China and the US have not yet been resolved and, in the meantime, domestic political instability continues to negatively affect confidence We think both factors have contributed in the month to lower financial analyst expectations for Germany’s economy. UK Labour market report, Sep/Oct (Tuesday): Wage growth will once again be the statistics to watch in this report. Our preferred measures relates to private sector regular pay on 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-month annualised bases. They currently range from around 3.5% to 4.5% (August), and we think are likely to remain in that vicinity in this report (September). Elsewhere, watch employment growth, which has slowed to a standstill in recent months. UK Consumer price inflation, Oct (Wednesday): We forecast an unchanged CPI print of 2.4% and an unchanged RPI print of 3.3%. While oil prices fell in October, during the month they were, on average, higher than in September, so there should be no downside pull from this. Also, forecast errors for October have tended to be on the downside in recent years for both RPI and CPI inflation, presenting possible downside risks to consensus forecasts. Euro area Industrial Production, Sep (Wednesday): Germany and Spain have already reported industrial production data, showing that IP ex-construction decreased in the month of September. Following new emission standard rules that adversely affected car production in al EA countries, we expect EA industrial production to echo the message sent by these two countries that have already reported. We forecast a 0.5% m-o-m decrease in IP, which follows a 1.0% m-o-m increase in August.  UK Producer price inflation, Oct (Wednesday): Despite the recent notable fall, oil prices rose on average from September to October. The upward impact on import prices during the month should, however, be tempered by a rise in sterling’s trade weighted index. This explains our modest +0.5% monthly forecast. As for output prices, we expect a smaller 0.1% increase (core), which would be in line with the PMI and CBI output price indicators during the month. UK Retail sales, Oct (Thursday): Anecdotal and survey evidence suggests retail sales growth has slowed in recent months. The CBI distributive trades survey softened in October, while the BRC measure of sales growth was also weaker than earlier in the year. Many high street stores seem to be struggling, although it is difficult to tell how much of this is cyclical versus structural (i.e., the rise of online shopping). However, September’s fall in the official volume series may limit how weak the October print ends up being and, as such, we forecast a flat reading for the month.Asia | Data preview Activity momentum in China likely stabilised in October; we expect central banks to leave rates unchanged in Indonesia and Thailand but hike by 25bp in the Philippines. China: We expect industrial production growth to remain unchanged from September, at 5.8% y-o-y in October, despite its recent downtrend, partially because this October has one more working day than last October. Retail sales growth will likely slow in October on weaker domestic demand. Although we expect a further slowdown in property investment, September’s investment data suggest that infrastructure investment may have reached its nadir (its year-on-year growth rate rose to -2.0% in September from - 5.9%) and manufacturing investment remained robust (16.3% y-o-y in September); these factors likely offset the weakness in property investment. We expect year-to-date fixed asset investment growth to remain stable after an uptick in September, as the policy easing seems to be starting to have an effect."

 AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7218 and has started out the week on the back foot following a risk-off day on Friday following the FOMC statement on Thursday. The week ahead for Aussie traders is jam-packed,  including Q3 wages and Oct employment, but the key releases are all Tuesday-Thursday.AUD/USD fell from the 0.73 handle following the FOMC statement which puts the pair back on the longer term track to the downside as investors get behind the dollar once again. The divergence between the FOMC and RBA is in play following a disappointing RBA Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. The pair then tried to steady just below the mid-point of the 0.72 handle but slipped further as US stocks continued to bleed following a risk-off session in Asia and Europe.What's in store this week for Aussie traders? Analysts at ING Bank noted that AUD/USD has managed to hold onto its gains quite well this week, despite a resurgent US dollar: "Challenges this week will come from China, where Tuesday’s October Industrial Production data and the ever-present risk of USD/CNY breaking above 7.00 pose downside risks to the AUD. Our bearish call on the month is largely on the back of a strong USD and a view that the prospects of a US: China trade deal will have evaporated by early December.  Also look out for Australia October jobs data on Wednesday. AUD/USD has recently broken out of a well-defined bear channel. This warns that any near-term losses may stall in the 0.7130/0.7160 area. If this is the case, then a subsequent break above the 0.7300 could deliver substantial follow-through. Just a word of caution here!  AUD/USD levelsSupport levels: 0.7200 0.7170 0.7135.   Resistance levels: 0.7250 0.7280 0.7315.Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that technical readings in the daily chart are far from losing the positive tone: "The 20 DMA maintains a firm bullish slope well below the current level, while technical indicators have barely retreated from overbought readings, holding well into positive ground with limited downward strength. Furthermore, the pair remains above the 61.8% retracement of its September/October decline at around 0.7200 now the immediate support. Below the level, bears will have more chances while above 0.7250 the scale will lean in favor of bulls. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the bearish case is firmer, as the pair broke below its 20 SMA, now losing directional strength above the current level, while technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes well into negative ground."        

Hopes for a Brexit deal are beginning to look more baseless as the clock unwinds.EU-UK divorce talks appear to be unraveling heading into a thin start for the week.The GBP/USD is trading into 1.2930 in the early hours of the new week's markets, and the Sterling saw a bearish gap from last Friday's close of 1.2972 to 1.2910 as Brexit headlines over the weekend took a nose-dive into the fearful end of things, with odds of a last-minute deal ahead of November's hypothetical deadline dead in the water. Over the weekend: Brexit divergence continues to widen The UK's Prime Minister, Theresa May, was forced to cancel a last-minute cabinet meeting over Brexit negotations as Brexiteers within the PM's own Conservative party continue to wreak havoc, and EU leaders in Brussels are equally as unimpressed with the UK PM's efforts, and last week's hopes for a last-minute deal are evaporating quickly at the new week's outset, leaving the Cable in a bearish lurch for Monday. Monday will see a sparsely-populated economic calendar for the GBP/USD, with no meaningful data slated for the UK, and the upcoming US session will likewise see thin volumes with US money markets out for the Thanksgiving long weekend, but Tuesday sees UK Average Earnings in the pipe, and Cable traders will be hoping for an early positive twist to the typical flow of headlines before the key economic data comes in for a landing.GBP/USD levels to watchAccording to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, the Cable could be primed for a technical bullish correction, but long-side action will be limited with the major pair stuck to the mats at key lows: "the daily chat shows that the pair is currently struggling with a mild bearish 20 DMA, as the Momentum indicator hovers around its mid-line and the RSI extends its decline into negative ground, all of which leans the risk toward the downside without confirming it just yet. In the 4 hours chart, the bearish strength is even clearer, as the 20 SMA gains downward traction over 100 pips above the current level, while the pair settled below a directionless 200 EMA. Technical indicators in this last time-frame hold near oversold readings as the pair closed a handful of pips below its weekly low of 1.2957, now the immediate support." Support levels: 1.2955 1.2920 1.2880     Resistance levels:  1.3000 1.3040 1.3085

Broad-market hopes for a last-minute Hail Mary Brexit clincher are set to wane this week, with the usual stream of rhetoric-heavy Brexit headlines over the weekend slamming the needle firmly to the 'fear' side of the gauge, with multiple media outlets reporting that UK ministers are threatening to quit (again), UK PM May has pulled the plug on a last-minute Brexit cabinet meeting, and last week's hope of a Friday deal outline, which transformed into hopes for a Tuesday deal outline, are getting flushed as well.Key highlights(Via Reuters): Four British ministers who back remaining in the European Union are on the verge of quitting Theresa May’s government over Brexit, the Sunday Times reported, as pressures built on the prime minister from all sides. May is trying to hammer out the final details of the British divorce deal but the talks have become stuck over how the two sides can prevent a hard border from being required in Ireland. Britain has proposed a UK-wide temporary customs arrangement with the EU to resolve the issue but Brexiteers in her party want London to have the final say on when that arrangement would end, to prevent it from being tied indefinitely to the bloc. A senior cabinet minister was quoted in the paper as saying: “This is the moment she has to face down Brussels and make it clear to them that they need to compromise, or we will leave without a deal.”(Via Sky News): UK MP Liam Fox, in an interview with Sky News: "We may or may not be able to get that agreement, in which case we would have to leave the European Union without one. But we are not going to get bounced into another referendum, so that those who lost the previous one can try to apply continued membership of the European Union to the people of Britain in perpetuity."(Via the UK Independent): Theresa May has been forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit deal, after fresh opposition at home and abroad plunged her timetable into turmoil. The prime minister shelved the meeting, pencilled in for Monday, slamming on the brakes after fierce resistance in her cabinet and in Brussels threatened to derail the path to an agreement. A government source conceded that an outline deal might not be ready by Tuesday – making it increasingly unlikely that a special EU summit to sign it off can be held in November, as hoped.  That would leave the UK having to ramp up hugely expensive no-deal preparations and in danger of being unable to pass all necessary legislation before the Brexit deadline next March. At home, Ms May faced an open challenge to her plans from Andrea Leadsom, the Commons leader, who vowed the UK “cannot be held against its will” by the backstop plan for the Irish border. Ms Leadsom became the second cabinet minister to insist on a unilateral power to escape being bound in the EU customs union – something explicitly ruled out by Brussels.  

In a market wrap, analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained that the risk off returned to close last week following Thursday’s FOMC statement.Key Quotes:"Markets are pricing in a 25bp hike in December, with data flow suggesting pipeline inflation pressures are building. The S&P was down 0.9%, led by technology as soft earnings reports weighed. The Nasdaq fell 1.6%. In Europe, the DAX was unchanged, while the CAC 40 and FTSE fell 0.5%. US treasury yields fell (10-year to 3.18%) and USD and JPY were bid. GBP underperformed on Brexit headlines. Oil continued to push lower, with WTI falling 0.9% to be down 21% from its October high. Supply-side surprises appear to be the main culprit, but concern that global demand is slowing may also be creeping into markets and weighing on risk appetite more broadly."Going up:"US October PPI came in stronger than expected at 0.6% m/m (2.9% y/y), with core at 0.5% m/m (2.6% y/y). That was the biggest gain since September 2012. The data support the latest FOMC statement that further gradual rate rises are required. Meanwhile, November preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 98.3, little changed from October's 98.6. At 2.6%, 5-10 year inflation expectations rose towards the upper end of the range that’s prevailed since June 2016 (last: 2.4%)."Solid:"The 0.6% q/q rise in Q3 UK GDP was supported by broad based growth. Household spending rose 0.5% q/q, services rose 0.4% and business investment rose a surprising strong 1.2% given all the Brexit uncertainty. Exports rose 2.7% q/q. Growth is at potential (1.5% y/y) and consistent with core inflation settling around the 2% target (currently 1.9% y/y). The BoE will remain vigilant in this climate especially as wages (3.1% y/y) are getting traction amid growing reports of skilled shortages."Regression: "French September industrial production data disappointed, falling 1.8% m/m, with transport leading declines, down 3.8% m/m and weakness evident elsewhere (ie mining down 1.8%). Meanwhile, October manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 (last: 52.5) implying no near-term recovery. The data releases highlight downside risks to next month's updated macroeconomic projections from the ECB and very benign forward guidance."