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Bảng Tin tức Forex

Thứ sáu, Tháng chín 21, 2018

Below are the key quotes, via Reuters, from Fitch Ratings' assessment of Switzerland's credit rating. Fitch affirms Switzerland at 'AAA'; outlook s

Below are the key quotes, via Reuters, from Fitch Ratings' assessment of Switzerland's credit rating. Fitch affirms Switzerland at 'AAA'; outlook stable. We do not expect the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy before next year. We do not envisage tax reform to have an adverse impact on Switzerland's attractiveness for corporate investments.

"Gold positioning was little changed but silver speculators covered more shorts in comparison to longs that liquidated, while platinum and palladium s

"Gold positioning was little changed but silver speculators covered more shorts in comparison to longs that liquidated, while platinum and palladium speculators added length and covered shorts," TD Securities analyst noted.Key quotes"Stabilizing emerging markets and President Trump's tariffs on China being interpreted as less impactful than previously feared spurred risk-on markets and a weakening in the greenback, which ultimately persuaded precious metal traders to add back length." "But, with the trade situation still very uncertain and the Fed set to increase interest rates next week, we do not anticipate any substantial rally or increased spec positioning in precious metals."

After starting the last day of the week modestly higher, major equity indexes in the United States closed mixed as investors booked their profits ahea

Dow outperforms other major sectors on a weekly basis.Financials and technology slip on Friday.WTI rally helps energy finish week on a strong note.After starting the last day of the week modestly higher, major equity indexes in the United States closed mixed as investors booked their profits ahead of Monday's sector reshuffle. During the first half of the session, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 indexes touched fresh record highs before retracing their gains into the closing bell. The S&P 500 Financials and the S&P 500 Information Technology sectors, which performed well throughout the week, finished the day 0.36% and 0.34% lower respectively.  Commenting on today's market action, “The feeling is the stock market resembles a drunk at the top of a hill. He’s wobbling, and you know that drunk’s going to fall, but you just don’t know when or how hard,” Bernard Baumohl, the chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey, told Reuters. Following some wild swings during the NA session, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate settled near the $71 mark with a 1% gain and boosted the S&P 500 Energy Index, which added 0.72% on the day. Meanwhile, led by the AT&T's sharp rally, the S&P 500 Telecom Services Sector added 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 70.75 points, or 0.27%, to 26,727.73, the S&P 500 lost 1.44 points, or 0.05%, to 2,929.31 and the Nasdaq fell 41.86 points, or 0.52%, to 7,986.37. On a weekly basis, The DJIA and the S&P 500 gained 2.18% and 0.83%, respectively, while Nasdaq shed 0.3%.    

AUD/USD daily chart Spot rate:                 0.7284 Relative change:     -0.09%      High:                        0.7305 Low:              

Aussie main bear trend is getting tested as the AUD/USD is nearing the 50-day simple moving average (DMA) and the multi-month bear trendline from late January 2018.AUD/USD bulls want to break above 0.7294-0.7307 zone (August 13 high, 50 DMA) to target 0.7383 August 21 high and 0.7485 July 10 high.The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are in positive territories which suggests a continuation of the bullish momentum above the 0.7294-0.7307 zone. AUD/USD daily chart
Spot rate:                 0.7284
Relative change:     -0.09%     
High:                        0.7305
Low:                         0.7262 Main trend:              Bearish
Short-term trend:     Bullish Resistance 1:          0.7294-0.7307 August 13 high, 50 DMA
Resistance 2:          0.7383 August 21 high
Resistance 3:          0.7485 July 10 high Support 1:               0.7255 August 13 low
Support 2:               0.7236 August 24 low
Support 3:               0.7200 figure August 15 low
Support 4:               0.7144 September 5 low
Support 5:               0.7085, 2018 low
Support 6:               0.7000 figure
Support 7:               0.6830 January 15, 2016 low 

According to analysts from Rabobank, the Mexican peso remains the most attractive carry currency and offers the best risk-adjusted returns. They see t

According to analysts from Rabobank, the Mexican peso remains the most attractive carry currency and offers the best risk-adjusted returns. They see that the relationship between USD/MXN and oil remains insignificant and the relationship with 2yr rate differentials has diminished as it still remains attractive despite the decline. They noted that NAFTA risks continues to loom but progress between the US and Mexico erodes the worst case scenario for Mexico even if a trilateral agreement isn’t reached.Key Quotes: “MXN is the best performing currency this year and with a gain of 4.5% against USD, it is the only currency to post gains of more than 1.5% against the Greenback. It is interesting to note that MXN sits with traditional safe havens JPY and CHF (and NOK) as one of the only currencies to rally against USD this year. Of course, at first glance MXN would seem like an odd bed fellow with safe haven currencies given that MXN has historically been one of the highest beta currencies globally (alongside ZAR). But, MXN has not relinquished that role.” “We maintain the view that MXN is likely to continue outperforming most EM currencies in the coming months and we still prefer being long MXN and collecting the carry than positioning for a move higher in USD/MXN. That being said, for those unable to be nimble in positioning it is important to be cognisant of the likely spikes in USD/MXN we will see on the back of carry trade unwinds and profit taking. We have seen these sharp, short-lived moves occur on numerous occasions in recent months and we expect that we will continue to see these types of moves in the months to come. For USD/MXN sellers and carry trade players this offers opportunities for more favourable entry levels but of course it also poses a risk to those already holding long MXN positions and from their perspective USD/MXN protection through options looks historically attractive.” “Our USD/MXN forecast maintains the same logic we have outlined over recent months which has held us in good stead. We expect carry trade demand to remain supportive of MXN but our bullish USD view is likely to mean that a 17 handle is off the cards for USD/MXN. We expect the pair to primarily trade in the 18-19 region over the course of the coming months. We suspect a NAFTA deal is unlikely in the coming weeks but headline noise could lead to a rise in USD/MXN vols as could the US midterms in November, particularly if a NAFTA deal has not been solidified by that juncture.” “We expect Banxico to leave rates on hold at 7.75% which we expect will prove to be the terminal rate of this hiking cycle. While it is true that inflationary pressures are ticking slightly higher, we don’t expect CPI inflation to remain on a course higher and instead see pressures easing as we head into next year.”
 

Analysts at Danske Bank, expect HICP inflation to slow further to 2.01% y/y driven by lower contribution from both food and energy prices in the Euroz

Analysts at Danske Bank, expect HICP inflation to slow further to 2.01% y/y driven by lower contribution from both food and energy prices in the Eurozone. Also of attention next week are the Italian projections with special attention to the budget deficit.Key Quotes: “In the euro area, we will receive HICP figures for September on Friday. In August, headline inflation fell to 2.05% y/y and we expect the September print to slow further to 2.01% y/y, still driven by lower contribution from both food and energy prices. Although we saw negotiated wages pick up in Q2, core inflation disappointed at 0.96% y/y in August from 1.07% y/y in July and we expect September’s figures to linger at 0.97% y/y, as the feed through from higher wages materialises only gradually.” “On Thursday, Italy will publish growth, dept and deficit projections for 2019 and it will be very interesting to see if Finance Minister Tria has succeeded in keeping the budget deficit in line with EU regulations or if populist leaders Matteo Salvini and Five Star Movement leader Di Maio achieved extensive spending on their flagship proposals. We expect the 2019 budget to include some kind of tax reforms and citizen income, but policies will likely be phased in only gradually or implemented by tweaking some already existing schemes in order to avoid the deficit breaching EU rules. Therefore we expect the 2019 to land somewhere between 2.0-2.4%.”

DXY daily chart Spot rate:                 94.21 Relative change:     0.33% High:                        94.33 Low:                         93.8

The US Dollar Index (DXY) bull trend is transitioning into a neutral to bearish trend as the market broke below the 100-day simple moving average (DMA). DXY had a small reaction up after the sell-off seen on Thursday but the move seem only corrective at this stage. The RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators are in negative territories suggesting bearish momentum.Bears targets are 93.71 July 9 swing low and 93.17 June 14 swing low. DXY daily chartSpot rate:                 94.21
Relative change:     0.33%
High:                        94.33
Low:                         93.81 Trend:                     Neutral to bearish Resistance 1:         94.43-51 August 28 swing low, 100-day SMA
Resistance 2:         94.91 July 27 high 
Resistance 3:         95.00 figure
Resistance 4:         95.24 July 13 high
Resistance 5:         95.52 August 6 high
Resistance 6:         95.65 July 19 high Support 1:               93.71 July 9 swing low
Support 2:               93.17 June 14 swing low
Support 3:               92.24 May 14 swing low

According to Andrew Grantham, an analyst at CIBC, the Bank of Canada will likely raise rates in October despite today’s inflation data, supporting the

According to Andrew Grantham, an analyst at CIBC, the Bank of Canada will likely raise rates in October despite today’s inflation data, supporting the Canadian dollar. Key Quotes: “August inflation wasn’t a big market-mover, but over the past year the currency has been swayed slightly more by CPI results than GDP. That largely reflects the bigger surprises in CPI data on average. However, it could also show that investors are paying too much attention to such data. Even though the BoC’s mandate is inflation, its decisions seem to have been driven more by surprises in GDP growth recently. That’s because growth is a guide for future inflation and, as we’ve seen in the past two months, the CPI figures can be choppy on a month-to-month basis.” “We don’t expect the BoC to read too much into this month’s headline pullback or core uptick, and hike interest rates in October as long as there’s a resolution to NAFTA uncertainty. That would support the C$ in the near-term.”

As the real economy is in good shape in the US, the Federal Reserve is on autopilot until the target range reaches 2.75-3.00%, where most FOMC members

As the real economy is in good shape in the US, the Federal Reserve is on autopilot until the target range reaches 2.75-3.00%, where most FOMC members’ estimate of the neutral rate, according to analysts from Danske Bank.Key Quotes: “In line with everyone else, we expect the Fed to raise the target range by 25bp to 2.00-2.25% at next week’s meeting. We do not expect it to be necessary for the Fed to send any new important signals to the markets. We believe the most important parts of the statement will remain unchanged and even if the sentence ‘monetary policy is accommodative’ is removed or changed, it should not matter much, in our view, as it would just reflect reality.” “With respect to the dots, the Fed will most likely still signal another hike in December (and probably that more FOMC members support this) and three hikes next year (it was divided between two or three additional hikes next year and it would take four members to move it higher). The Fed will also still signal that it is going to raise the Fed funds rate above the longer-run dot. The longer-run dot may be revised higher to 3.00%.” “Most FOMC members are signalling that the (nominal) natural rate of interest (the rate where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary) is around 2.75- 3.00% and many, even the more dovish members, have signalled in speeches that the Fed is on autopilot until neutral is reached. That means that the hikes in December and in March seem very likely. Another hike during the summer next year, perhaps June, is also likely.”“After the Fed funds rate reaches neutral, it is more ‘stop and go’ depending on how the economy is doing and how markets are reacting to monetary tightening. At the June meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted that the reason why the Fed removed much of its forward guidance was because he wants more flexibility going forward. It is also going to be easier, as every meeting is ‘live’ next year when Powell is hosting a press conference after every meeting. We believe the Fed will be able to continue hiking with one hike in H2 19 (i.e. three hikes next year and a total of five hikes from now until year-end 2019). Markets are pricing in 3.75 hikes from now until year-end 2019 (i.e. including the hike next week).”

Sacha Tihanyi, Deputy Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TDS, explains that they see inflation decelerating much less rapidly through 2018...

Sacha Tihanyi, Deputy Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TDS, explains that they see inflation decelerating much less rapidly through 2018. Banxico could start easing in April according to them. Key Quotes: “For the price perspective past the end of this year, our projection for 2019 is less constructive due to still high current inflation within the context of elevated expectations and the potential for energy price shocks to interact positively with expectations. This however does not nullify the chance that Banxico will ease in 2019 even if inflation remains above target and converges more slowly. We are optimistic that expectations should begin to fall more rapidly once the current energy price surge begins to dissipate, this may not be for a period of time, though peso stability is very helpful for supporting a quicker convergence in expectations.” “We are thus changing our long-held rate call for Banxico to begin easing in December, to a view that easing will begin at the first meeting in Q2 (April), and then proceed at a 25bp cut at every other meeting. This will imply an end of 2019 overnight rate of 6.50%. We see cuts continuing in 2020, to reach a floor of 5.25% in the overnight rate by October.” “We note that inflation uncertainty is further clouded by risks posed by the upcoming fiscal budget, though the exact scope and speed of implementation of the Lopez-Obrador administration's fiscal policy agenda remains unknown. We see the potential for an increase in fiscal expenditure to pressure not only inflation, but also the current account deficit. With a relatively tight labour market and strong wage growth, in the presence of still elevated inflation expectations, the potential for an opening of the fiscal spigots to complicate Banxico's inflation outlook remains elevated.”

Analysts at Wells Fargo, expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates next week and continued with 25bps hikes per quarter through the third quarter of 2

Analysts at Wells Fargo, expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates next week and continued with 25bps hikes per quarter through the third quarter of 2019. Key Quotes: “The FOMC is all but certain to take the fed funds rate up another 25 bps at next week’s meeting. Currently the market places the chance of a quarter-point hike at 98%. That will make any communication tweaks about future rate hikes the main draw on Wednesday.” “There are likely to be few changes to the post meeting statement. Recent indicators point to growth remaining “strong.” Risks still look to be balanced as the Fed navigates the tailwinds of fiscal stimulus with the potential headwinds of trade dislocations and volatility in emerging markets.” “While the statement is unlikely to provide much new insight, updated economic projections should help bring the near-term rate path into view.” “More uncertainty surrounds 2019. The additional two rate hikes before the end of the year would bring the fed funds rate to 2.25%-2.50%, only about 50 bps below what most Fed officials estimate to be “neutral”.” “We are in the camp that the FOMC will carry on raising the fed funds rate 25 bps points once a quarter through Q3-2019. At that point, the fed funds rate is likely to be slightly restrictive based on FOMC estimates. Markets, however, are more skeptical. Futures point to the fed funds rate rising to about 2.75% by next September.” “The timing and degree of policy changes next year come with an added degree of uncertainty as we reach a critical stage of the cycle. Not only are there questions about neutral, but press conferences after each meeting and new members, including Vice Chair Rich Clarida this month, may also sway the timing and path of policy changes.”

The Mexican peso recovered on Friday, after falling to the lowest in a week against the US dollar and it was about to end the week unchanged despite t

MXN lagged during the week among emerging market currencies.USD/MXN steady, for now, under 19.00 and above 18.50.The Mexican peso recovered on Friday, after falling to the lowest in a week against the US dollar and it was about to end the week unchanged despite the rally in many emerging market currencies. The USD/MXN pair peaked at 18.93, the highest since September 13 and then dropped back to 18.80, where it was trading, slightly below the level it had a week ago. The greenback remained mostly flat against commodity currencies and extended weekly losses versus most emerging markets. Latin American currencies posted strong weekly gains while the Mexican peso failed to benefit. Weeks ago, when the greenback soared versus those currencies, MXN showed resilience. During the last session, they rallied but the peso also remained decoupled. The USD/MXN continues to consolidate between 18.70 and 18.90, after the slide from 19.67 (Sep 5 high). The short-term trend points sideways with a modest bearish bias. The main drivers for the week ahead are likely to be trade talks between Mexico, US and Canada, sentiment toward EM and the Federal Reserve meeting (the following week will be the turn of Banxico). “We expect the pair to primarily trade in the 18-19 region over the course of the coming months. We suspect a NAFTA deal is unlikely in the coming weeks but headline noise could lead to a rise in USD/MXN vols as could the US midterms in November, particularly if a NAFTA deal has not been solidified by that juncture”, wrote analysts at Rabobank. They see the MXN likely to continue outperforming most EM currencies in the coming months.USD/MXN Levels to watchThe current consolidation phase is likely to continue as longs as it remains within 18.70 and 18.90. A close above 19.05 could signal more gains ahead with a target at 19.15; on top, the next strong resistance is seen around 19.40. On the flip side, a close below 18.70 is needed to open the doors for a slide to 18.50. The key support is the barrier at 18.40/50.

"The FOMC will hike 25bp in September, and a few more Fed officials should signal their comfort with four rates hikes for this year in the dot plot,"

"The FOMC will hike 25bp in September, and a few more Fed officials should signal their comfort with four rates hikes for this year in the dot plot," TD Securities analysts note.Key quotes"The 2020 and 2021 dots will continue to show a sizable majority supports hiking beyond neutral, while the median longer-run dot could drift down to 2.75% thanks to newly added participants. This then raises the odds that the statement language is modified to suggest “policy remains somewhat accommodative.” Risks should remain balanced, with Chair Powell potentially de-emphasizing some of the downside risks that have preoccupied markets of late." "Rates: The September hike is well priced in and the market is pricing in more than an 80% chance of a December hike and about 2 hikes next year. Given recent price action, our base case scenario for the Fed should result in a modest bull steepening reaction. Note that the market is not pricing in hikes beyond neutral, which could make it vulnerable to a bear flattener if the Fed stresses on overshooting neutral." "FX: We believe that the market is leaning towards a hawkish reaction, owing to recent Fed speeches and elevated positioning in the USD. While we think the Fed maintains the accommodative language and delivers a rate hike, this is mostly priced in now. That leaves a possible asymmetric response in the FX markets where the USD weakens more on a dovish take than rallies on a hawkish one. If the market takes the USD higher on that baseline, we think it offers attractive risks rewards to fade against the EUR."

Following Thursday's steep fall, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate gained traction on Friday and rose to its highest level since July 11 at $71.77

Oil rig count ticks down to 866 in the U.S.OPEC is reportedly looking to increase output by 500K bpd.OPEC and its allies to meet in Algeria on Sunday.Following Thursday's steep fall, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate gained traction on Friday and rose to its highest level since July 11 at $71.77 as investors reacted to the Iranian crude exports falling more than initially anticipated. However, ahead of Sunday's meeting in Algeria, a Reuters report claiming that the OPEC and its allies could decide to increase the output by 500,000 barrels per day triggered a heavy sell-off and dragged the WTI to a daily low at $70. Citing three sources familiar with the talks, Reuters said that OPEC and non-OPEC countries pumped less oil than they did in July and were planning to introduce a 500K bpd production boost.  On the other hand, the weekly report published by Baker Hughes Energy Services revealed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased to 866 from 867 recorded a week ago and helped the WTI advance into the positive territory. At the moment, the barrel of WTI is trading at $71 and is up 80 cents, or 1.15% on the day.Technical levels to considerThe initial support for the pair aligns at $70 (psychological level) before $69.30 (20-DMA) and $68.45 (50-DMA). On the upside resistances could be seen at $71.75 (daily high), $72.90 (May 22 high) and $74 (Jun. 28 high).

Next week, the Federal Reserve will meet. According to analysts from Danske Bank, continued Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area...

Next week, the Federal Reserve will meet. According to analysts from Danske Bank, continued Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again during the course of the autumn.Key Quotes:  “With the Fed set to stay on autopilot for now, US rates are set to stay a source of USD support. This should help cement the status of the dollar as a carry currency both in terms of the level of and the change in short-end yields.” “With the Fed still keen to continue the process of moving rates back towards ‘neutral’, it remains too early in our view for the FX market to price the Fed going on hold. This should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again during the course of the autumn.” “As the ECB is set to signal a first hike coming up at a time where the Fed could be looking to go on hold, a EUR/USD uptick will start to materialise. Indeed, it is when easing stops – rather than when hikes occur - that currency appreciation is seen, and vice versa.”

Gold 4-hour chart  Spot rate:                   1,197.17 Relative change:        -0.84% High:                          1,211.08 Low:            

Gold bear trend is on hold for the fifth consecutive week as the market is trading sideways.The 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages are coiled together as Gold is trading sideways. Gold has a neutral to bullish bias as long as it holds above 1,189.49. Bulls target can be located near 1,225.90 (July 17 low).Gold 4-hour chart Spot rate:                   1,197.17
Relative change:        -0.84%
High:                          1,211.08
Low:                           1,192.02 Trend:                         Bearish 
Short-term trend:        Bullish above 1,182.90  Resistance 1:            1,204.10, August 3 swing low (key level)
Resistance 2:            1,211.17 July 19 low 
Resistance 3:            1,214.30 August 28 high
Resistance 4:            1,217.89-1,220.90 zone, August 6 high and July 18 low
Resistance 5:            1,225.90 July 17 low
Resistance 6:            1,237.60 July 3 swing low Support 1:            1,194.30 March 10, 2017 low
Support 2:            1,189.49 September 4 low
Support 3:            1,172.82 current 2018 low
Support 4:            1,145.20 March, 1 2017 low

USD/CHF 4-hour chart Spot rate:                       0.9588 Relative change:           -0.02%      High:                              0.9598 Lo

USD/CHF main bear trend remains intact.USD/CHF is trading below its 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving average suggesting a strong bearish bias. USD/CHF rebounded from the 0.9550 level and the market is set to consolidate the recent losses. If bulls manage to break the 0.9600 resistance they can expect to reach the 0.9650 level (August 29 low). USD/CHF remain strongly bearish and any pullback up can be short-lived. USD/CHF 4-hour chartSpot rate:                       0.9588
Relative change:           -0.02%     
High:                              0.9598
Low:                               0.9542 Main trend:                    Bearish Resistance 1:                0.9580-0.9600 April 17 low, figure
Resistance 2:                0.9650 August 29 low 
Resistance 3:                0.9700 figure
Resistance 4:                0.9745-47, August 28 low, 200-day simple moving average
Resistance 5:                0.9768 September 4 swing high
Resistance 6:                0.9788 June 7 swing low (key level)
Resistance 7:                0.9807 August 22 low 
Resistance 8:                0.9820 August 25 low Support 1:                     0.9550 figure
Support 2:                     0.9500 figure
Support 3:                     0.9400 figure

Below are the key quotes from the European Council President Donald Tusk's recently published statement on the Brexit negotiations. The European Un

Below are the key quotes from the European Council President Donald Tusk's recently published statement on the Brexit negotiations. The European Union and its leaders fully respect the UK’s decision expressed in the referendum on leaving the EU.  We studied the Chequers proposals in all seriousness. The results of our analysis have been known to the British side in every detail for many weeks. The UK stance presented just before and during the Salzburg meeting was surprisingly tough and in fact uncompromising. The response of the EU27 leaders was to reiterate our trust in chief negotiator Michel Barnier and to reiterate our position on the integrity of the Single Market and the Irish backstop.  While understanding the logic of the negotiations, I remain convinced that a compromise, good for all, is still possible. 

Speaking to reporters after his meeting with Turkish leaders, Germany's Finance Minister Olaf Scholz crossed the wires saying that Turkey didn't seek

Speaking to reporters after his meeting with Turkish leaders, Germany's Finance Minister Olaf Scholz crossed the wires saying that Turkey didn't seek an economic aid in Berlin talks today and added that he was not expecting President Erdoğan to do that next week. Scholz also stated that he was expecting Turkey to recover from economic difficulties.

After rising above the 0.73 mark for the first time in three weeks on Friday, the AUD/USD pair reversed its course in the American trading hours and s

USD recovery in the NA session weighs on AUD/USD.The pair remains on track to close the second straight week higher.Markit data shows robust expansion in the manufacturing sector.After rising above the 0.73 mark for the first time in three weeks on Friday, the AUD/USD pair reversed its course in the American trading hours and set its daily low at 0.7264 before recovering a small part of its losses. At the moment, the pair is trading at 0.7280, down 0.18% on the day. In the absence of significant macroeconomic data releases from Australia on Friday, the greenback's market valuation remained the primary driver of the pair's price action. On the back of a sharp drop seen in the GBP/USD pair, the US Dollar Index broke above the 94 handle and now remains on track to close the day with modest gains above 94.20. Today's data from the U.S. showed that the business activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a stronger pace than expected in September with the Markit PMI data improving to 55.6 from 54.7. On a negative note, the Service PMI dropped to 52.6 from 54.8 and missed the market expectation of 55. With an empty economic calendar in the remainder of the session, the pair is likely to stay in its recent range. Despite today's retreat, the pair remains on track to close the week around 140 pips higher.Technical levels to considerThe initial resistance for the pair aligns at 0.7300/05 (psychological level/daily high) ahead of 0.7370 (100-DMA) and 0.7450 (Aug. 9 high). On the downside, supports are located at 0.7260 (50-DMA), 0.7180 (20-DMA) and 0.7140 (Sep. 18 low).

USD/JPY 4-hour chart  Spot rate:                 112.58 Relative change:       0.09%      High:                        112.87 Low:              

USD/JPY bulls are extending the bull trend by keeping the market above the 112.50 resistance. USD/JPY is trading above its 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages (SMA) which are rising and widening confirming the bullish bias. The market is also trading above the bull trendline. If bulls are able to keep the market above 112.50 the next objective is 113.18, July high. However failure to break above 113.18 can lead to a rotation down towards 112.00 figureUSD/JPY 4-hour chart Spot rate:                 112.58
Relative change:       0.09%     
High:                        112.87
Low:                         112.42 Main trend:               Bullish  Resistance 1:    113.18, July high
Resistance 2:    114.00 figure
Resistance 3:    114.80 November 2017 high Support 1:    112.50 figure
Support 2:    112.00-112.17 zone, figure and August 1, swing high
Support 3:    111.84 August 29 swing high
Support 4:    111.84 August 29 swing high
Support 5:    111.54 August 6, high 
Support 6:    111.45 August 8 high
Support 7:    111.00 figure
Support 8:    110.75, July 23 swing low
Support 9:    110.00 figure
Support 10:   109.37 June 25 low

The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the highest level since June and trimmed part of yesterday’s gains. A modest recovery of the US dollar and UK PM May

US dollar recovers ground as Euro gets hits by Brexit concerns.EUR/USD still heads for weekly gains despite Friday’s slide.The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the highest level since June and trimmed part of yesterday’s gains. A modest recovery of the US dollar and UK PM May comments on Brexit hit the Euro. Earlier today, the pair extended the rally and reached 1.1802. It lost momentum around the 1.1800 and pulled back modestly. After UK PM May demanded respect from EU leaders and raised concerns about a “no deal” outcome on Brexit, EUR/USD dropped following the dramatic slide of GBP/USD. After the beginning of the US session, the euro bottomed at 1.1730. During the last hours it had been moving sideways in the 1.1765/1.1730 range, down for the day, but still more than a hundred pips above the level it had a week ago. It is about to post the highest weekly close since June. Weekly gains were supported by a weaker US dollar. Next week the key event will be the Fed’s meeting. A rate hike is expected and the tone and projections of the FOMC staff are likely to set the tone of the US dollar.Levels to watchThe rally of EUR/USD eased on Friday, but the trend still points to the upside. As long as it remains above an uptrend line from August lows, currently at 1.1640, the bullish trend will remain in place. Before that line, support is seen at 1.1720 and 1.1700. To the upside, the immediate resistance is seen at 1.1765/70 and then the 1.1800/05 area. A break higher could clear the way for a test of 1.1850.

Jocelyn Paquet, analyst at National Bank of Canada, explained that retail sales in July matched expectations only thanks to a rise in gasoline station

Jocelyn Paquet, analyst at National Bank of Canada, explained that retail sales in July matched expectations only thanks to a rise in gasoline station receipts.Key Quotes:“Canadian retail sales matched consensus expectations in July, advancing 0.3% m/m in nominal terms to an all-time high of C$50.9 billion. The prior month’s data was revised up from -0.2% to -0.1%.” “Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.9%, three ticks more than the median forecast of economists.” “With the price effect removed, retail sales edged down 0.1% countrywide.” “Canadian retail sales came in line with consensus expectations in July but only thanks to a rise in gasoline station receipts, the latter caused by a 1.9% surge in prices. Without that category, retail spending was up just 0.1% in the month, hampered by a disappointing print in the auto segment. There were, on the other hand, some bright spots in the report. Sales of electronics registered yet another solid month and are now up 10.2% on their level a year ago. 

"The September meeting of the FOMC is expected to have a full agenda: a hike in the federal funds rate target range, a matching raise in the IOER rate

"The September meeting of the FOMC is expected to have a full agenda: a hike in the federal funds rate target range, a matching raise in the IOER rate, the next step in balance sheet normalisation, and an update of the projections, including the dot plot," Rabobank analysts note.Key quotes"The September hike in the target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be a full one, i.e. to be accompanied by a 25bp rise in the IOER. Meanwhile, the September meeting should also lead to the next step in the balance sheet normalization program that was announced in September last year."  "Our forecast of 3 hikes for this year has become increasingly challenged. While the June dot plot revealed a delicate 8-7 balance of the dot plot in favour of 4 instead of 3 hikes this year, the strength of economic data for Q2 and Q3 may have shifted that balance in favor of 4 hikes in the new dot plot, this month. For now, we stick to our forecast of 3 hikes this year, but if the Fed remains sanguine about the escalating trade wars a fourth hike becomes more likely." "The FOMC did debate the risk of inverting the yield curve at the July 31-August 1 meeting, with several doves citing statistical evidence that yield curve inversions have often preceded recessions. However, the hawks emphasised that downward pressure on term premiums from central bank asset purchase programs and the strong worldwide demand for safe assets made this time different. Given that the hawks have the upper hand in the FOMC, the risk of the Fed inverting the yield curve certainly cannot be ignored."

USD/CAD 4-hour chart Spot rate:                   1.2922 Relative change:        0.15%  High:                          1.2943 Low:            

USD/CAD main bull trend is on hold since late June.USD/CAD is finding support at the 1.2900 figure creating a double bottom with the late August lows. The RSI and MACD and are leaving the oversold territories while the MACD is gaining some traction suggesting that there might be room to the upside for a correction up to 1.3000 figure. A bear breakout below 1.2900 would invalidate the short-term bullish pullback opportunity.
USD/CAD 4-hour chartSpot rate:                   1.2922
Relative change:        0.15% 
High:                          1.2943
Low:                           1.2885 Trend:                        Bullish to Neutral
Short-term trend:       Bearish Resistance 1:            1.2959 August 7 low
Resistance 2:            1.3000 figure
Resistance 3:            1.3048 August 14 low
Resistance 4:            1.3108, September 7 low 
  Support 1:            1.2885 August 28 swing low
Support 2:            1.2855-65 June 6 low - 200-day SMA
Support 3:            1.2800 figure

"The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% for 2018:Q3 and 2.7% for 2018:Q4," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Friday. Key quotes

"The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.3% for 2018:Q3 and 2.7% for 2018:Q4," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported on Friday.Key quotes"News from this week's data releases left the nowcast for 2018:Q3 broadly unchanged and decreased the nowcast for 2018:Q4 by 0.1 percentage point." "A negative surprise from the Empire State Manufacturing Survey accounted for most of the decrease. Housing data had little net impact."

After spending the first half of the day in a tight range below the 0.89 mark, the EUR/GBP rose sharply as resurfacing concerns over a no-deal Brexit

Hard-Brexit concerns weigh on the pound sterling on Friday.UK PM May says no deal is better than a bad deal.EUR/GBP remains on track to close the week in green.After spending the first half of the day in a tight range below the 0.89 mark, the EUR/GBP rose sharply as resurfacing concerns over a no-deal Brexit weighed on the GBP. The pair, which touched a fresh two-week high at 0.8995, was last seen trading at 0.8980, where it was up 1.2% on the day. As a response to the European Council President Donald Tusk's remarks at the Salzburg summit yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May delivered a statement earlier today. Pointing out two critical issues that remain unresolved, May said that a no-deal would be better than a bad deal that would disrespect their referendum outcome. and added they wouldn't overturn the referendum result. Assessing the latest developments surrounding Brexit negotiations, "Gauntlet or hard line negotiation? Either interpretation serves for the EU rejection of the UK's separation offer. Does the EU really want an agreement with Britain? Prime Minister May's implied question to the  EU cannot be answered until there is agreement or failure. The odds of a failure, however, long thought improbable by the market, have gone up notably after today's rejection," said Joseph Trevisani, FXStreet Senior Analyst. Reflecting the broad-based GBP weakness, the GBP/USD pair erased more than 100 pips to touch a new weekly low at 1.3055.Technical outlook: EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP blasts higher and test 0.9000 figure as UK PM May rejects the EU's proposals

The GBP/JPY pair dropped dramatically during the last hours following a statement from UK PM Theresa May. “We are at an impasse”, said May regarding B

Pound tumbles on May’s comments about Brexit. GBP/JPY drops 250 pips from daily highs, hits 3-day lows.The GBP/JPY pair dropped dramatically during the last hours following a statement from UK PM Theresa May. “We are at an impasse”, said May regarding Brexit negotiations and demanded respect from the EU. Her comments included the “no deal” is better than a “bad deal”, a scenario that is starting to look like a real possibility.  The pound tumbled with May’s comments. It is the worst performer, having the biggest slide in about a year. GBP/JPY reached earlier today at 149.67, the highest level since May 22, but then lost strength and pulled back. The slide accelerated then sending the pair to 146.97, more than 250 pips below the daily top.  Later it trimmed losses but the recovery was limited by 147.50. As of writing was trading at 147.20/30, down 1.25% for the day but still up for the week. Technical levels To the downside, immediate support is seen around 147.00, followed by 146.25 (Sep 17 low) and 145.60 (Sep 12 high). On the flip side, resistance levels might now be located at 147.50, 148.00 and 148.30.
 

Citing three sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported that OPEC and non-OPEC countries were discussing a possible production incr

Citing three sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported that OPEC and non-OPEC countries were discussing a possible production increase by 500,000 barrels per day. Sources further added that OPEC and non-OPEC countries pumped less oil in August compared with July due to drop in Iranian crude supply.

EUR/GBP 4-hour chart Spot rate:                0.8981 Relative change:     1.19%      High:                       0.8995 Low:                  

EUR/GBP is resuming its main bull trend as the GBP has been hit hard by comments from UK Prime Minister Theresa May which warned of a potential “no deal” on Brexit.EUR/GBP bulls objective is re-conquer the 0.9000 figure and the 0.9032 level (August 9 high). EUR/GBP bulls made a statement as they re-conquered the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving averages while the RSI, MACD and Stochastics indicators have turned bullish. Dips are likely going to become buying opportunities.EUR/GBP 4-hour chartSpot rate:                0.8981
Relative change:     1.19%     
High:                       0.8995
Low:                        0.8872 Main Trend:            Bullish Resistance 1:         0.9000 figure
Resistance 2:         0.9032 August 9 high
Resistance 3:         0.9100, current 2018 high Support 1:         0.8974 September 6 low
Support 2:         0.8940 August 14 high
Support 3:         0.8896 August 14 swing low
Support 4:         0.8876 September 11 low
Support 5:         0.8840 key level
Support 6:         0.8800 figure

After a sharp sell-off to the 93.80 region, the index appears to have met dip-buyers along with a change of mood in the risk-associated universe, ma

After a sharp sell-off to the 93.80 region, the index appears to have met dip-buyers along with a change of mood in the risk-associated universe, managing to retake the 94.00 handle and above for the time being.The decline in the buck halted just ahead of July’s low at 93.71. This area, along with June’s low at 93.19 should hold the bearish impetus initially.For the recovery to become a resumption of the up move, it should ideally surpass the 95.00 area, where coincide the 55-day SMA and September 14 high and the short-term (now) resistance line, today at 95.28.DXY daily chart              Daily high: 94.33 Daily low: 93.81Support LevelsS1: 93.63 S2: 93.37 S3: 92.90Resistance LevelsR1: 94.36 R2: 94.83 R3: 95.09

"Following the decisive interest rate hike of 625bps to 24% on September 13, Turkey made another important step to restore confidence amongst investor

"Following the decisive interest rate hike of 625bps to 24% on September 13, Turkey made another important step to restore confidence amongst investors," Rabobank analysts argue.Key quotes"A new economy program revealed by Treasury and Finance Minister Albayrak on September 20 envisages economic rebalancing accompanied by fiscal discipline and industrial transformation to boost manufacturing and exports in order to reduce C/A deficit in a sustainable way." "While new macroeconomic assumptions are far more realistic compared to the previous program, actions speak louder than a thousand words or the 16 slides included in Mr Albayrak’s impressive presentation." "Given that market confidence has been shattered and remains low, it is essential that the administration makes quick progress in implementing various policies which are supposed to achieve targets set by Mr Albayrak."  

Commenting on British Prime Minister Theresa May's statement, Brexit campaigner Richard Tice said that May's tone was good and people would celebrate

Commenting on British Prime Minister Theresa May's statement, Brexit campaigner Richard Tice said that May's tone was good and people would celebrate that, as reported by Reuters. "She is telling the European Union that they shouldn’t treat her like that,” Tice said, and added: “She could make life so much easier for herself by just chucking Chequers and saying we are going to a World Trade deal. She would then be the toast of all Brexiteers, most of the Conservative Party and even moderate Remainers.”

Inflation data for August was released today in Canada. Krishen Rangasamy, Senior Economist at the National Bank of Canada, points out that inflation

Inflation data for August was released today in Canada. Krishen Rangasamy, Senior Economist at the National Bank of Canada, points out that inflation this quarter is proving to be hotter than what was expected by the Bank of Canada. Key Quotes:“The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures on a year on year basis were as follows: CPI-trim (2.2%), CPI-median (2.1%) and CPI-common (2.0%), the latter being slightly higher than what was expected by consensus. The average of the three core measures is now at 2.1%, the highest since
February of 2012.” “Assuming seasonal patterns hold in September, the annual headline inflation rate will be 2.9% in Q3, four ticks higher than the central bank’s estimate for the quarter. Will the central bank keep blaming temporary factors for the upside surprise on inflation? True, the surge in inter-city transportation category ─ there was only a slight pullback in  August after July’s outsized gains ─ is unlikely to be repeated next quarter. But there’s no denying overall price pressures are heating up.” “The CPI-trim, which excludes items with highly volatile (and temporary) monthly price movements, is running at 2.2% on a year-on-year basis. And it’s not just base effects at work here. Price pressures have been intensifying lately as evidenced by 3-month annualized changes for all three core measures which are in the 2.5-3.0% range. That reflects an economy with little to no slack. All in all, inflation this quarter is proving to be hotter than what was expected by the Bank of Canada. An October interest rate hike by the central bank is highly likely in our view.”

After advancing to a fresh daily high at 1.2945 in the early NA session, the USD/CAD pair lost its traction and erased the majority of its gains. At t

Annual core-CPI in Canada rises more than expected in August.US Dollar Index recovers above in the NA session.Crude oil rallies with WTI rising to mid-$71s.After advancing to a fresh daily high at 1.2945 in the early NA session, the USD/CAD pair lost its traction and erased the majority of its gains. At the moment, the pair was trading at 1.2910, adding only 7 pips on a daily basis. Earlier today, Statistics Canada reported that the inflation, measured by the CPI, rose 2.8% in August on a yearly basis following July's reading of 3% and matched the market expectation. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada's annual core-CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% to beat the analysts' estimate of 1.4%. A separate publication revealed that retails sales increased by 0.3% in July to fall short of the market consensus of 0.4%. Despite the upbeat data, a strengthening greenback pushed the pair higher. Boosted by a sharp fall seen in the GBP/USD pair, the US Dollar Index rose to a session top at 94.33 before making a downward correction. At the moment, the index is up 0.3% on the day at 94.20. In the meantime, the IHS Markit reported that the business activity in the manufacturing sector in the U.S. expanded at a stronger-than-expected pace in September while the service sector lost momentum. On the other hand, a robust rally witnessed in crude oil prices helped the commodity-sensitive loonie retrace its losses vs the buck. As of writing, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate was up 2.2% on the day at $71.70.Technical levels to considerThe initial support for the pair aligns at 1.2885 (daily low) ahead of 1.2855 (Jun. 6 low) and 1.2815 (May 31 low). On the upside, resistances are located at 1.2930 (200-DMA), 1.3000 (psychological level) and 1.3055 (20-DMA/50-DMA).  

GBP/USD 4-hour chart Spot rate:                    1.3070 Relative change:        -1.48%      High:                           1.3276 Low:      

GBP/USD is switching from a bearish to a bull trend on the daily chart.GBP/USD has erased the weekly gains as UK Prime Minister Theresa May warns on a potential ‘no deal’ scenario.GBP/USD is trading below its 50-period simple moving average as the market is re-integrating the bull channel (blue lines). Bears made quite some damage and further downward consolidation is to be expected as the RSI, MACD and Stochastics are gaining bearish traction. The main supports are 1.3050 (August 30 swing high, key level) and 1.2957 July 19 swing low.         GBP/USD 4-hour chartSpot rate:                    1.3070
Relative change:        -1.48%     
High:                           1.3276
Low:                            1.3063 Main trend:                 Bullish Resistance 1:                  1.3082-1.3100 supply/demand level and figure
Resistance 2:                  1.3144 last week high
Resistance 3:                  1.3200 figure (key support/resistance)
Resistance 4:                  1.3300 figure
Resistance 5:                  1.3363 July high
Resistance 6:                  1.3472 June 7 high Support 1:                  1.3050 August 30 swing high, key level
Support 2:                  1.3000 figure    
Support 3:                  1.2957 July 19 swing low    

Major equity indexes started the last day of the week on a positive note and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both touched new record

DJIA and S&P 500 touch new all-time highs at the opening bell.Telecom and energy sectors provide fuel to Wall Street.Major equity indexes started the last day of the week on a positive note and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both touched new record highs supported by the strong performance of European stocks. Despite the Brexit headlines that triggered a heavy GBP sell-off in the last hour, the UK's FTSE is looking to end the day around 1.6% higher while Germany's DAX is adding 0.6%.  During the early session, the S&P 500 Telecom Services Index outperforms other major sectors with a 1.5% gain. Additionally, with the West Texas Intermediate rising above the $71 mark with a 1.3% gain on the day, the S&P 500 Energy Index is adding 0.6% to boost the major indexes. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 75.28 points, or 0.28%, at 26,723.26, the S&P 500 was adding 8.5 points, or 0.3%, to 2,939.31, and the Nasdaq Composite was gaining 16.26 points, or 0.2%, to 8,044.49.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a basket of its main competitors, has now reverted the negative mood and managed to regain the 94

The index extends the rebound from lows to the 94.30 area.Disappointing Brexit headlines impact on risk-on sentiment.Markit’s advanced manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck vs. a basket of its main competitors, has now reverted the negative mood and managed to regain the 94.00 mark and above. US Dollar Index up on Brexit headlines DXY is prolonging the rebound from recent 2-month lows in the 93.80 following a wave of selling orders hitting the riskier assets, particularly the Sterling and the single currency. In fact, the demand for the buck gathered extra pace after UK’s PM Theresa May hinted at the likeliness of a ‘no deal’ scenario at the ongoing Brexit negotiations. PM May also noted that the EU and the UK appears now in an impasse, provoking a massive disappointment in GBP-bulls and thus triggering the current collapse in Cable. Back to the US, Markit’s advanced Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 55.6 for the month of September, above initial estimates. On the not-so-bright side, flash Services PMI is seen at 52.9 vs. 55.0 forecasted for the same period. Despite the current rebound, the greenback remains under pressure on trade concerns (albeit somewhat alleviated as of late), US politics (with President Trump in centre stage) and a tepid (temporary?) recovery in the EM FX universe. Supporting the buck, instead, appears the FOMC meeting on September 26 and the prospects of further tightening in the coming months as well as in the next year.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is gaining 0.37% at 94.25 and a break above 94.59 (100-day SMA) would aim for 95.00 (high Sep.14) and finally 95.04 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, immediate contention aligns at 93.81 (low Sep.21) followed by 93.71 (monthly low Jul.9) and then 93.19 (monthly low Jun.14).

In an interview with Fox News, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett stated that they were 'very, very close' to having to move forward on a trad

In an interview with Fox News, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett stated that they were 'very, very close' to having to move forward on a trade deal with Mexico and not Canada.

"The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index pointed to a robust improvement in business conditions across

"The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index pointed to a robust improvement in business conditions across the manufacturing sector during September," the IHS Markit said in its latest report.Key quotesAt 55.6, up from 54.7 in August, the headline index was the highest since May.  Stronger rates of output and new order growth were the main factors boosting the PMI in September.  Input buying increased at the strongest rate for four years in September. There were signs that manufacturers have become more cautious about the year-ahead growth outlook, with business sentiment moderating to its lowest since March 2017. On the service sector, "The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Services PMI Business Activity Index dropped to 52.9 in September, from 54.8 in August, to signal the weakest expansion of service sector output since March 2017," the IHS Markit noted. However, a renewed rise in backlogs of work and stronger new business growth provided signs of resilient underlying demand during September. Efforts to boost operating capacity underpinned a robust and accelerated upturn in employment. Expectations for activity growth over the year ahead softened in September.

United States Markit Services PMI below forecasts (55) in September: Actual (52.6)

United States Markit Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (55) in September: Actual (55.6)

United States Markit PMI Composite came in at 53.4 below forecasts (55) in September

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Morten Helt believes the pair’s upside has further room to go and sees it around 114.00 in the medium-to-longer term. K

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Morten Helt believes the pair’s upside has further room to go and sees it around 114.00 in the medium-to-longer term.Key Quotes“We expect USD/JPY to continue trading mostly sideways in the near term, with risk appetite and yields on 10Y UST the main drivers. Political events, most notably a potential summit meeting between Abe and Trump, represent a downside risk if concerns about a US-Japanese trade war increase. Taking FX positioning and the overall fragile risk environment into consideration, we see little potential for a sustained rally in USD/JPY above July’s high at 113.17 in the near term. We see the cross within a 110-113 range in the coming months, targeting 112 in 1-3M”. “Longer term, the BoJ’s monetary policy should remain supportive for USD/JPY, driven by widening US-Japan yield spreads and continued outflows out of Japan. We target 114 in 6-12M”.

FX Strategists at Scotiabank keeps the constructive view on the pair, adding that solid support should emerge in the mid/low-1.1700s. Key Quotes “Pr

FX Strategists at Scotiabank keeps the constructive view on the pair, adding that solid support should emerge in the mid/low-1.1700s.Key Quotes“Preliminary Eurozone PMI data was a little disappointing on the manufacturing side, with both France and Germany registering slightly less positive growth in the sector this month. German service sector output rose strongly,  however, lifting Eurozone services and steadying composite readings to extend the broader stabilization in activity seen after the H1 slowdown. The data’s release coincided with peak EURUSD trading through the overnight session and pulled spot back below 1.18”. “Spot’s slide from 1.18+ earlier leaves the short-term chart patterns looking a little soft—potential outside range session on the 6-hour chart. EURUSD closed strongly through key resistance at 1.1725 yesterday and weekly patterns remain EUR-positive so we expect good support for the EUR on modest dips through the low/mid 1.17s. Back under 1.17 in a meaningful way through the close today will rob the market of the upward momentum that has evolved this week”.

The XAU/USD pair came under heavy bearish pressure and broke below the critical $1200 level to extend its fall to a new 9-day low at $1192. As of writ

US Dollar Index jumps to a fresh session high near 94.30 in the early NA session.Latest Brexit headlines trigger a sharp drop in GBP/USD.XAU/USD turns flat on the week.The XAU/USD pair came under heavy bearish pressure and broke below the critical $1200 level to extend its fall to a new 9-day low at $1192. As of writing, the pair was down $14, or 1.15%, on the day at $1193. The pair's recent drop seems to be caused by a stronger greenback in the early NA session. Although there were no macroeconomic data releases from the United States that could have provided a boost to the greenback, a sharp fall witnessed in the GBP/USD pair following British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit statement seems to be ramping up the demand for the USD. Ahead of the PMI data, the index was up 0.42% at 94.30.  Despite the Brexit headlines, major European equity indexes are looking to end the week on a strong note with German DAX and the UK's FTSE adding 0.7% and 1.5%, respectively, at the moment. Furthermore, Wall Street started the day higher to confirm the high risk appetite, which makes it difficult for the safe-haven precious metal to show resilience against the buck. In the first couple of minutes following the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.25% while the S&P 500 was gaining 0.2%.Technical levels to considerThe initial support for the pair aligns at $1188 (Sep. 11 low) ahead of $1183 (Aug. 24 low) and $1173 (Aug. 15 low). On the upside, resistances align at $1200 (psychological level), $1210 (daily high) and $1217 (Aug. 10 high).

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the Kiwi Dollar could extend the up move to the 0.6730 in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We exp

According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the Kiwi Dollar could extend the up move to the 0.6730 in the next weeks.Key Quotes24-hour view: “We expected a higher NZD yesterday but held the view that “0.6685 is unlikely to be seriously threatened”. However, NZD managed to edge above this level and touched 0.6693 before ending the day on a solid note (NY close of 0.6686). From here, there is scope for NZD to stage another leg higher to 0.6705 before the current NZD strength should ease off (next resistance at 0.6730 is unlikely to come in the picture). Support is at 0.6665 but only a break of 0.6640 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We indicated yesterday (20 Sep, spot at 0.6635) that a daily closing above 0.6655 would suggest NZD could continue to head higher to 0.6705. NZD cracked 0.6655 without much difficulty and ended the day on a solid note (NY close of 0.6686, +1.10%). From here, 0.6705 appears to be within reach and we see room for further NZD strength to 0.6730. All in, there is no indication that the current positive tone in NZD is about to end and only a break of 0.6620 (‘key support’ previously at 0.6575) would suggest that a short-term top is in place”.  

Sellers are now queuing to dump long Sterling positions, forcing GBP/USD to drop below 1.3100 the figure, fresh 4-day lows. GBP/USD collapses below 1

Cable accelerates the downside on May’s comments.The pair breaks below the 1.3100 support, down over 1%.PM May’s warns on a potential ‘no deal’ scenario.Sellers are now queuing to dump long Sterling positions, forcing GBP/USD to drop below 1.3100 the figure, fresh 4-day lows.GBP/USD collapses below 1.3100Cable is shedding more than 1% for the day after testing the 1.3300 neighbourhood on Thursday, always against the backdrop of rising hopes on a Brexit deal. However, all those hopes quickly evaporated today after PM Theresa May warned over the likelihood of a ‘no deal’ in the Brexit negotiations. May also noted that both parties are now in an impasse and stressed that anything that does not respect the referendum result is unacceptable. In the meantime, Cable keeps falling and is now challenging the top of the daily cloud around 1.3090… after testing 1.3300 yesterday.GBP/USD levels to considerAs of writing, the pair is losing 1.32% at 1.3087 facing the next support at 1.3009 (21-day SMA) seconded by 1.2785 (low Sep.5) and finally 1.2662 (low Aug.15). On the upside, a breakout of 1.3299 (high Sep.20) would aim for 1.3364 (high Jul.9) and finally 1.3520 (200-day SMA).

Analysts at Nomura suggest that a scenario where the UK’s Labour party backs a second referendum is one of the more difficult tail risks to GBP price,

Analysts at Nomura suggest that a scenario where the UK’s Labour party backs a second referendum is one of the more difficult tail risks to GBP price, but is one we get asked a lot about.Key Quotes“It is still unlikely and in our view the government will manage to scrape through a meaningful vote later this year. But on the weekend there could be second referendum headlines with the Labour party conference looking to vote on the topic.” “If the Labour party merely backs the option of a referendum and if the Brexit deal fails to be approved in parliament, that is a weak endorsement. It would be keeping the second referendum open as an option, but makes it less likely to happen as the Labour party would still threaten an election too.” “It would still be a very close vote in parliament though and our base case is that whatever is agreed with the EU will be approved in the Commons. But just in case Labour policy shifts the likelihood we walk through how to interpret this. The headlines may capture some market attention, perhaps be slightly GBP positive, but would still carry some risks along the way.”

British Prime Minister Theresa May is now delivering a prepared statement on the latest Brexit talks at the Salzburg summit. Key quotes (via Reuters)

British Prime Minister Theresa May is now delivering a prepared statement on the latest Brexit talks at the Salzburg summit.Key quotes (via Reuters)Must and will continue the work of preparing no deal. On no deal will do everything to avoid a hard border on Northern Ireland. Cannot accept anything that does not respect the referendum result. Will not overturn the referendum result.

EUR/JPY daily chart                         Daily high: 133.14 Daily low: 132.36 Support Levels S1: 131.44 S2: 130.36 S3: 129.80

EUR/JPY has moved higher and it has not only surpassed the 200-day SMA but also left behind July’s peak just above 132.00 the figure in the last couple of days.The quick upside has managed to regain the 133.00 handle and above, although some sellers have turned up soon afterwards.Immediate target is now April’s top in the mid-133.00s, while further upside should put YTD top at 137.53 (February 2) back on the radar.The proximity of the overbought level cold prompt some selling pressure in the very near term, although solid contention is located at the short-term support line, today at 129.41.EUR/JPY daily chart                        Daily high: 133.14 Daily low: 132.36Support LevelsS1: 131.44 S2: 130.36 S3: 129.80Resistance LevelsR1: 133.07 R2: 133.62 R3: 134.70

British Prime Minister Theresa May is now delivering a prepared statement on the latest Brexit talks at the Salzburg summit. Key quotes Despite th

British Prime Minister Theresa May is now delivering a prepared statement on the latest Brexit talks at the Salzburg summit.Key quotesDespite the progress, there are two big issues remaining. The EU is still only offering us two options on the economic relationship. Offer no. one on economic relationship would mean we abide by all EU rules, would make mockery of Brexit vote. A no deal is better than a 'bad deal.' Tusk didn't make a counterproposal. Uncontrolled immigration would continue, we wouldn't be able to do trade deals with other countries on EU option, mockery of Brexit vote. Northern Ireland would effectively remain in customs union under EU proposals, that is even worse, parliament has rejected this idea. Anything which fails to respect the referendum and effectively divides our country in two would be a bad deal.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May says she will never agree to separating Northern Ireland from the UK. She also rejects the UK staying in the EU Single M

UK Prime Minister Theresa May says she will never agree to separating Northern Ireland from the UK. She also rejects the UK staying in the EU Single Market.  -- more coming --  Rumors about a statement by May were circling throughout the morning and already weighed on cable and sent it towards 1.3200. The confirmation of a special announcement already pushed the pair to below 1.3150. The BBC had reported that May will say she is not changing tack on her Brexit stance. The EU rejected the British Government's Chequers proposal in the Salzburg Summit. 

EUR/USD 4-hour chart Spot rate:             1.1753 Relative change:   -0.20%   High:                    1.1802 Low:                     1.1750

EUR/USD is switching from a bearish to bullish trend. EUR/USD is currently consolidating the recent gains as the bears are trying to push EUR/USD below 1.1750 key level. The market is set to trade down towards 1.1722 (last week high) and 1.1700 figure. The main trend remains bullish so investors will consider pullback down as buying opportunities.EUR/USD 4-hour chartSpot rate:             1.1753
Relative change:   -0.20%  
High:                    1.1802
Low:                     1.1750 Main trend:                    Bullish Resistance 1:   1.1800 figure
Resistance 2:   1.1853 June 14 high
Resistance 3:   1.1900 figure Support 1:   1.1750 key resistance (July)
Support 2:   1.1722 last week high
Support 3:   1.1654 August 27 high
Support 4:   1.1630 August 8 high key level
Support 5:   1.1600 figure
Support 6:   1.1572 July 19 low
Support 7:   1.1542 supply/demand level
Support 8:   1.1530 August 23 swing low
Support 9:   1.1508 June 8 low

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) registered at 0.6% above expectations (0.04%) in July

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 4.2% above expectations (2.9%) in July

According to Mark McCormick, North American Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, the major theme at the moment is the price action in the majors and

According to Mark McCormick, North American Head of FX Strategy at TD Securities, the major theme at the moment is the price action in the majors and a mix of value fishing and global equity convergence has seen the USD push towards the lower end of its recent range.Key Quotes“These ranges are bending but they are not ready to break ahead the Fed next week so we expect the majors to consolidate again into the weekend.” “Next week's Fed meeting is the appetizer to the mid-term entree in Nov. Still, the break of the 1.1750 level is important for the EUR, suggesting we could see higher lows there moving forward.” “A mix of higher global rates and equities is a bad mix for the JPY, though it is decoupling from cyclical drivers that point to 111.40. We fade breaks of 113.”

"Retail sales rose 0.3% to $50.9 billion in July on higher sales at food and beverage stores and gasoline stations," Statistics Canada reported today.

"Retail sales rose 0.3% to $50.9 billion in July on higher sales at food and beverage stores and gasoline stations," Statistics Canada reported today. Key takeaways from the press releaseExcluding the lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail sales increased 0.9%. Sales were up in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 54.8% of total retail sales. After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms decreased 0.1%.

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) dipped from previous 0.3% to 0.2% in August

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis in August, following a 3.0% increase in July. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increase

"The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% on a year-over-year basis in August, following a 3.0% increase in July. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 2.2%, matching the gain in July," Statistics Canada reported on Friday.Key quotes from the press releasePrices were up in all eight major components in the 12 months to August. Year-over-year prices for non-durable goods (+3.8%) increased at a more moderate pace in August than in July (+4.4%).  On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in August, following a 0.5% increase in July. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's core-CPI ticked up to 1.7% in August from 1.6% in July and surpassed the analysts' estimate of 1.4%. On a monthly basis, the core-CPI increased 0.1%.

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) below forecasts (0.4%) in July: Actual (0.3%)

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (-0.1%) in August

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.9%, above expectations (0.6%) in July

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.8%) in August

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) above expectations (-0.1%) in August: Actual (0.1%)

Canada Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) came in at 1.7%, above expectations (1.4%) in August

Japan’s headline inflation rate for August accelerated 0.4 %-points to 1.3%, but most of the jump was due to energy costs, explains the research team

Japan’s headline inflation rate for August accelerated 0.4 %-points to 1.3%, but most of the jump was due to energy costs, explains the research team at Rabobank.Key Quotes“Indeed the core measure, which excludes food and energy, only inched up one tenth to 0.4%, underlining the BoJ’s challenges. This week the bank reinforced its image as still being the most accommodative central bank in the G7, even though it trimmed purchases of long-term bonds (>25 years maturity) from JPY60bn to JPY50bn in its regular operation today.” “Meanwhile, a 0.4 points rise in the manufacturing PMI for August, also published this morning, offers a small ray of light although the trend of slowing growth of activity in the sector since the start of the year does not appear to have been arrested convincingly yet.”

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar recently crossed the wires saying that he thought they could have a deal and that they were entering a rocky path in

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar recently crossed the wires saying that he thought they could have a deal and that they were entering a rocky path in negotiations over the next couple of months, as reported by Reuters.

The BBC recently announced that British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to make a live statement at 12:45 GMT on the government's Brexit policy. T

The BBC recently announced that British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to make a live statement at 12:45 GMT on the government's Brexit policy. The initial market reaction to this development pulled the GBP/USD pair to a fresh session low at 1.3150. As of writing, the pair was down 0.75% on the day at 1.3165.  Earlier today, in an interview with BBC 2, British Brexit Secretary Raab said the European officials' behaviours at the Salzburg summit was not "very statesman like," and added that PM May was treated badly during the meetings. 

According to analysts at TD Securities, while the data is unlikely a game-changer for the BoC, it should drive sentiment towards the loonie over the n

According to analysts at TD Securities, while the data is unlikely a game-changer for the BoC, it should drive sentiment towards the loonie over the next few sessions.Key Quotes“USDCAD has drifted lower, reflecting a reduction the global risk premium. However, the data will send either a green light or a red stop sign on whether USDCAD can making a convincing break of some key technical levels below 1.29.” “We are dip buyers here and prefer to remain long AUDCAD and fade the bounce in CADNOK. We hold long EURCAD exposure through riskies.”

James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, suggests that they expect Canada’s headline inflation to come in at 2.8% year on year, a mild slowdow

James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, suggests that they expect Canada’s headline inflation to come in at 2.8% year on year, a mild slowdown from July’s 3% bumper figure.Key Quotes“July was the first month that could have seen President Trump's administrations' tariffs push up Canadian prices, but in the end, we didn’t see any signs of this. And barring any substantial increase in this trade war spat, between the US and Canada over the coming weeks, we expect headline CPI to drift back towards target in early 2019 gradually.” “What really matters for the Bank of Canada is core inflation, and here the news has been pretty good. All three of the Bank’s main measures of core prices are floating around the 2% target. These are likely to come under some upward pressure as the effect of the increase in minimum wages translate into higher prices. The slightly weaker Canadian dollar may also add some impetus.” “This makes it likely that we’ll get another rate hike from the Bank of Canada in October, although as ever the odds really hinge on Nafta progress.”

Brazil Mid-month Inflation below expectations (0.17%) in September: Actual (0.09%)

After recording fresh 3-month tops beyond 1.1800 the figure earlier in the session, EUR/USD has faced some selling pressure and is now hovering over t

The pair retreats from earlier tops above 1.1800 the figure.The greenback manages to regain some traction around 94.00.US advanced PMIs next of relevance across the pond.After recording fresh 3-month tops beyond 1.1800 the figure earlier in the session, EUR/USD has faced some selling pressure and is now hovering over the 1.1760 zone, or daily lows.EUR/USD now looks to dataThe pair is now trading on the red territory after two consecutive daily advances, including a surpass of the key 1.1745/50 band and the 1.1790 level, both considered tough hurdles on the way to June’s peaks in the mid-1.1800s. The decline in spot has been in response to easing upside momentum in the risk-associated complex, particularly following (now) not-so-auspicious headlines from the Brexit talks. The ongoing rebound in the buck from multi-week lows near 93.80 when tracked by the US Dollar Index has been behind today’s knee-jerk in spot. Despite the rebound, the buck remains on track to close the second consecutive week with losses. In the data space, advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs in Germany and the euro bloc are expected below expectations for the current month. In the US calendar, Markit will publish its preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs for September.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.09% at 1.1766 facing the next support at 1.1672 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1653 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1526 (low Sep. 10). On the flip side, a break above 1.1803 (high Jul.9) would target 1.1853 (monthly high Jun.14) en route to 1.1947 (200-day SMA).

The cross is expected to re-test the 1.20 area within a year’s view, according to Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank. Key Quotes “SNB deli

The cross is expected to re-test the 1.20 area within a year’s view, according to Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.Key Quotes“SNB delivered as widely expected yesterday with no material changes to its policy communication”. “We expect EUR/CHF to trade heavy still as EU political risks remain and as the SNB is awaiting ECB’s next steps to exit unconventional policy”. “We look for EUR/CHF to be sticky around 1.13 towards year end and then head back towards 1.20 in 12M helped by ECB ‘normalisation’ drawing closer”.

Cable’s stance remains neutral and could test the 1.3360 region in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “E

Cable’s stance remains neutral and could test the 1.3360 region in the near term, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group.Key Quotes24-hour view: “Expectation for a short-term top yesterday was clearly wrong as GBP punched above the major 1.3215 resistance and accelerated to a high of 1.3295. While the rally is clearly at overbought levels, there is no sign of weakness yet and further GBP gains would not be surprising. That said, the pace of any further up-move would be likely be slower and the next resistance at 1.3330 could temporarily cap GBP gains. Support is at 1.3235 followed by 1.3200. The latter level is unlikely to be threatened from here”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held a ‘positive’ GBP view since last Tuesday (11 Sep, spot at 1.3025) wherein we indicated the “corrective rebound could extend to 1.3170”. We added on Tuesday (18 Sep, spot at 1.3150) that despite being overbought, the advance has scope to extend towards 1.3215. When GBP dropped sharply from an exact high of 1.3215, we indicated yesterday (20 Sep, spot at 1.3140) that “the risk of a short-term top has increased”. Despite our reservation, GBP punched above 1.3215 and hit an overnight high of 1.3295. The sharp and impulsive rally suggests there is scope for further GBP strength to the July’s peak of 1.3363. That said, as the rally is in overbought territory now, GBP has to continue to move higher in the next few days as a prolonged consolidation would quickly increase the risk of a short-term top. All in, we will continue to hold a ‘positive’ GBP view as long as the ‘key support’ at 1.3170 is intact (level previously at 1.3060)”.

India FX Reserves, USD up to $400.49B from previous $399.28B

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, notes that a constructive tone continues to permeate US-Canada NAFTA negotiations, reports that t

Richard Franulovich, Head of FX Strategy at Westpac, notes that a constructive tone continues to permeate US-Canada NAFTA negotiations, reports that the US has ceded its contentious “buy American” demands on procurement projects the latest step forward. Key Quotes“Market pricing for BoC hikes still on the light side. OIS markets price in an 81% probability for a +25bp hike at their next meeting Oct 24, but beyond that do not fully price in another follow up hike until April 2019.” “Leading indicators point to growth moderating in coming quarters (see over) though still at an above trend pace. That and fading NAFTA risks suggest the BoC could hike faster than market pricing. Against that backdrop USD/CAD can trade more sustainably in a new sub-1.3000 range into year’s end.”

After bottoming out in fresh 2-month lows near 93.80, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has found some dip-buyers and is now trading back above the critical 9

The index leaves recent lows and moves above the 94.00 handle.Yields of the US 10-year note navigate around 3.08%.US advanced Manufacturing and Services PMIs next on tap in the docket.After bottoming out in fresh 2-month lows near 93.80, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has found some dip-buyers and is now trading back above the critical 94.00 milestone.US Dollar Index bounces off 2-month lowsThe sentiment around the greenback has been deteriorating since mid-August, coming down following the rejection from YTD peaks in the vicinity of the 97.00 handle (August 15). Today’s recovery comes in after some negative headlines from the Brexit negotiations weighed on investors’ sentiment and thus dented the upbeat mood surrounding the riskier assets. In the US data space, Markit’s preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for the month of September are only due later in the NA session.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAs of writing the index is gaining 0.16% at 94.05 and a break above 94.59 (100-day SMA) would aim for 95.00 (high Sep.14) and finally 95.04 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, immediate contention aligns at 93.82 (low Sep.21) followed by 93.71 (monthly low Jul.9) and then 93.19 (monthly low Jun.14).

According to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac, UK officials and markets are likely to be far more concerned over Brexit negotiations in advanc

According to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac, UK officials and markets are likely to be far more concerned over Brexit negotiations in advance of a likely mid-Nov Brexit-specific EU summit.Key Quotes“Both EU and UK negotiators now appear keener to find compromise in order to overcome the final key obstacles of the Irish border and customs. Any signs of agreement should lift GBP in the interim.” “UK politics and the problems of Westminster passing any agreement will be problematic. Labour and Conservative party conferences at the end of this month may heighten domestic Brexit tensions.” “Last week’s BoE Agents’ Report (a key input for Bank policy) showed how Brexit uncertainties are now beginning to weigh on business intentions.” “Near term GBP rebounds may occur on EU/UK negotiations but will likely be limited due to UK’s precarious domestic politics and so the 1.27-1.35 range is likely to persist.”

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the Canada’s CPI and retail sales will set the tone where TD is below consensus for both reports. Key Quotes

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the Canada’s CPI and retail sales will set the tone where TD is below consensus for both reports.Key Quotes“We look for CPI to soften to 2.5% y/y in August, reflecting a 0.4% decline on the month (market: 2.8%, -0.1%). This is largely a result of an unwind of one-offs from the prior month, which should leave core inflation measures stable near 2.0% on average.” “Retail sales should likewise disappoint on weakness in auto sales which will hold the headline print to a 0.1% advance versus 0.6% in the ex-autos measure (market: 0.3%, 0.6%). This should leave volumes little changed or slightly lower on the month to the detriment of industry-level GDP.”

Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, noted the greenback could revert the current weakness. Key Quotes “EUR/USD rose yesterday and broke ou

Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, noted the greenback could revert the current weakness.Key QuotesEUR/USD rose yesterday and broke out of the ranges seen over the past 3M; a key level to watch now is 1.1791 (9 July high)”. “Price action in recent days is an illustration that higher US yields are not necessarily a USD positive if driven by long-end yields. Notably the 2Y10Y US slope has steepened in recent days and thus while the US 10Y yield has broken 3% again, Fed pricing has been little changed, making room for US inflation to surprise on the upside down the road; this is USD negative in isolation”. “However, mind our call that the Fed remains on autopilot and hence that USD strength may not be over just yet”.

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on spot while noted that a test of 1.1850 stays well on the cards in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour v

FX Strategists at UOB Group remain neutral on spot while noted that a test of 1.1850 stays well on the cards in the next weeks.Key Quotes24-hour view: “While we highlighted yesterday “the consolidation phase appears to be close to completion”, our expectation for a likely downside break was wrong. EUR staged an abrupt and sharp rally that blast past the major 1.1725/35 resistance zone and came close to the next major resistance at 1.1790 (overnight high of 1.1785). The strong surge seems to be running ahead of itself but there is ample room for a move above 1.1790. That said, the June’s peak near 1.1851 is likely out of reach for today (minor resistance at 1.1825). On the downside, 1.1720 is expected to be strong enough to hold any intraday pullback (minor support is at 1.1750)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the same view since last Friday wherein the “probability for a move to 1.1790 has increased”. EUR subsequently traded sideways for several days and our resolve was tested as we indicated yesterday that the “prospect for further EUR strength has diminished”. Just when we thought time was running out for our view to work out, EUR rocketed and blast past the strong 1.1725/35 resistance zone and hit a high of 1.1785 (holding just a few pips below 1.1790). The outsized rally (the +0.88% up-move yesterday was the largest 1-day gain in 3 months) coupled with the break of strong resistance levels indicates scope for further EUR strength towards the next resistance at 1.1850 (June’s peak). All in, we expect EUR to trade on a firm footing from here and only a break of 1.1690 (‘key support’ previously at 1.1640) would indicate that the current EUR strength has run its course”.

The recovery in the pair could extend beyond 0.7300 the figure, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. Key Quotes “A

The recovery in the pair could extend beyond 0.7300 the figure, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesAUD/USD is bid very near term. We would allow for recovery towards the 55 day ma at .7316 and we will need a close above here, and preferably above the 2018 channel at .7371, to confirm a short term reversal and target .7474 9 th July high on the way to the 200 day ma at .7596”. “We note that the market has recently eroded the May and December 2016 lows at .7161/46. However the break lower has not been sustained and we suspect a false break lower”. “Below the .7085 recent September low should be enough to open up the path to .6827 the 2016 low”.

In its latest assessment of the global economic growth, Fitch ratings slashed the global growth outlook cut on US-China trade war. Additional Headlin

In its latest assessment of the global economic growth, Fitch ratings slashed the global growth outlook cut on US-China trade war.Additional Headlines:World growth is now less synchronised and less balanced. US tariffs of $200bln of imports from China will have material impact on Global Growth. Protectionist US trade policies has now reached tipping point where it will affect what remains a strong global growth outlook. Trade war is now a reality. Near term global growth prospects remain strong, but demand strongest in the US. Fitch have now included 25% tariff shock in it's Geo baseline. Downside risks have increased. QE assets of FED, ECB, BOJ and BOE set to decline in 2019. Rising cost of funding in US dollar is likely to continue to create pressure for borrowers in Global Credit Markets. Fed gaining confidence to increase rates and reduce balance sheet. See's 3 further rate hikes in 2019.

Andreas Wallström, Chief analyst at Nordea Markets, explains that the sentiment across euro area firms is on a downward trend as in September, the man

Andreas Wallström, Chief analyst at Nordea Markets, explains that the sentiment across euro area firms is on a downward trend as in September, the manufacturing PMI declined to 53.3, the lowest level in 2 years.Key Quotes“Looking at the Swedish PMI, which historically has been a good leading indicator for the euro-area, further declines should be expected. Also, the more leading sub-indices of new orders have been falling in both France and Germany in recent months. The sub-index for new export orders in the euro-area dropped below the 50-mark for the first time in five years.” “Even though, the manufacturing sector is weakening other parts of the economy is holding up better. The composite indicator, weighing together manufacturing and services sector, declined much less and remains on a high level.” “The ECB projects a stable and rather favourable economic development ahead.”

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) caught a fresh bid-wave last hour and moved closer to the $ 71 mark, extending its recovery from yesterday’s slump, trigger

Reverses Trump’s comments-led slide, as tightening supplies underpin. Bulls look forward to the weekend OPEC+ Algiers meeting for fresh boost. WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) caught a fresh bid-wave last hour and moved closer to the $ 71 mark, extending its recovery from yesterday’s slump, triggered by the US President Trump’s comments. Trump urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to lower prices, saying on Twitter “they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices”. However, the sentiment around the black gold remains underpinned by expectations of tightening global supplies. The weekly US EIA crude stocks data showed a drawdown in crude stockpiles for the fifth straight week to 3-1/2-year lows in the week to Sept. 14 while looming supply disruption risks from the US sanctions on Iran continue to lend support to the prices. Markets now await Friday’s US rigs count data for fresh trading impetus ahead of the weekend’s meeting between the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) likely to be held in Algeria. WTI Technical LevelsResistances: $ 71.34 (2-week high), $ 71.76 (daily R1/ Fib R2), $ 72 (round number). Supports: $ 70.56 (daily pivot), $ 69.98 (5 & 20-DMA), $ 68.56 (50-DMA).

Moody’s Investors Service affirmed New Zealand’s credit rating at AAA and maintains a stable outlook, in his latest credit rating review of the OZ eco

Moody’s Investors Service affirmed New Zealand’s credit rating at AAA and maintains a stable outlook, in his latest credit rating review of the OZ economy.

The offered tone around the pound is seen growing bigger in the mid-European session, knocking-off the GBP/USD pair back towards the 1.32 handle, as B

Brexit jitters return to markets, send pound broadly lower.Stalled USD selling also caps the upside in Cable, as the focus remains on Brexit headlines. The offered tone around the pound is seen growing bigger in the mid-European session, knocking-off the GBP/USD pair back towards the 1.32 handle, as Brexit jitters claw back in anticipation of a big statement likely to be announced by the UK PM Theresa May shortly. However, the sources from the UK PM Office denied any such announcement happening from May. The latest Brexit-chatter doing the rounds suggest that the PM May is seeking to staunch fallout from the EU summit, the UK Senior Minister noted that PM will have to re-write her Chequers Brexit plan. More so, a tepid recovery attempt seen in the US dollar across its main competitors from 2-week lows also collaborated to the renewed weakness in Cable. Also, downbeat UK public sector net borrowings data added to the weight on the spot. In the day ahead, the Brexit-related headlines will continue to have a significant impact on the pound, as the US data is likely to have virtually no impact on the dollar trades.GBP/USD Technical LevelsSlobodan Drvenica at Windsor Brokers noted: “Pullback from new 2 ½ month high at 1.3297 could extend as profit-taking and softer tone on the latest news, as well as reversal of daily slow stochastic from overbought territory, weigh on near-term action. Initial support at 1.3213 (former high of 26 July) has been cracked, with extended dips expected to find ground above broken 100SMA (1.3157), to keep bulls intact for renewed attempt above 1.3280 barrier and possible extension towards 1.3362 (09 July high). Negative scenario sees break below 100SMA as initial bearish signal, with extension and weekly close below rising 10SMA (1.3121) needed to put bulls on hold. Res: 1.3280; 1.3297; 1.3362; 1.3400. Sup: 1.3214; 1.3188; 1.3157; 1.3121.”  

Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the Eurozone PMI has now seen readings between 54 and 55 for the past five months as the economy seem

Bert Colijn, Senior Economist at ING, notes that the Eurozone PMI has now seen readings between 54 and 55 for the past five months as the economy seems to be adjusting to a lower cruising speed with the service sector being the main engine for growth on the back of strong a labour market.Key Quotes“We expect growth to come in at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter for the coming quarters, but downside risks to our outlook are mounting.” “Those downside risks are mainly felt in the manufacturing sector. Eurozone industry continues to struggle with the global trade uncertainties coming from an imminent Brexit and the escalating global trade conflict.” “While the US-EU dispute has been contained, uncertainty stemming from the global unrest continues to weigh on European manufacturers.”

EUR/USD is struggling for direction at the end of the week and is now looking to consolidate below the 1.1800 handle. EUR/USD unfazed following PMIs

The pair extends the sideline theme below 1.1800 the figure.The greenback remains on the defensive in sub-95.00 area.EMU, German flash manufacturing PMI came in below estimates.EUR/USD is struggling for direction at the end of the week and is now looking to consolidate below the 1.1800 handle.EUR/USD unfazed following PMIsThe sentiment around the shared currency remains unchanged so far on Friday and despite advanced data for manufacturing PMIs in both the euro area and Germany are expected below previous estimates for the current month. In the meantime, the upbeat momentum around the pair remains bolstered by the persistent offered bias in the greenback, which forced the US Dollar Index (DXY) to drop to fresh 2-month lows below 94.00 the figure. There are no further data releases in Euroland today, although Brexit headlines remain poised to keep driving the sentiment around the riskier assets in the short-term horizon at least. Across the pond, Markit’s preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs are only due later in the NA session.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is up 0.12% at 1.1791 and a break above 1.1803 (high Jul.9) would target 1.1853 (monthly high Jun.14) en route to 1.1947 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, the next support lines up at 1.1672 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1653 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1526 (low Sep. 10).

In its latest credit rating review on ChiIn its latest credit rating review on China, the US-based rating agency, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) affirmed C

In its latest credit rating review on ChiIn its latest credit rating review on China, the US-based rating agency, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) affirmed China’s rating at A+/ A-1 while maintaining a stable outlook.na, the US-based rating agency, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) affirmed China’s rating at A+/ A-1 while maintaining a stable outlook.

United Kingdom Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at £5.889B, above forecasts (£2.85B) in August

Germany’s Foreign Minister Maas is on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the Turkish economy. Key Headlines: We have a great interest in a st

Germany’s Foreign Minister Maas is on the wires now, via Reuters, commenting on the Turkish economy.Key Headlines:We have a great interest in a stable Turkey economically. Turkey has played a very positive role in Idlib, Syria.

Reuters reports the latest chatter doing the rounds on the Brexit issue, as found below. Theresa May is seeking to staunch fallout from the EU summit

Reuters reports the latest chatter doing the rounds on the Brexit issue, as found below. Theresa May is seeking to staunch fallout from the EU summit. UK senior minister suggesting that PM will have to re-write her Chequers plan.Also Read: UK’s Grayling: A no Brexit deal until the Irish border issue is resolved                    EU pushing for October agreement - Reuters                    Brexit hindering GBP's upside - Scotiabank

The Eurozone manufacturing sector slowed its pace of expansion further in the month of September, the latest manufacturing activity survey from IHS/Ma

The Eurozone manufacturing sector slowed its pace of expansion further in the month of September, the latest manufacturing activity survey from IHS/Markit research showed. The Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 53.3 in September while services PMI edged higher to 54.7 versus 54.4 last. The IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite dropped from 54.5 in August to 54.2 in September, hitting fresh 4-month lows.

European Monetary Union Markit PMI Composite below forecasts (54.4) in September: Actual (54.2)

European Monetary Union Markit Services PMI above expectations (54.4) in September: Actual (54.7)

European Monetary Union Markit Manufacturing PMI below expectations (54.4) in September: Actual (53.3)

China is likely to feel the effect of the recent trade measures sooner than later because domestic investment is currently historically weak, credit m

China is likely to feel the effect of the recent trade measures sooner than later because domestic investment is currently historically weak, credit momentum restrained, and authorities, as yet, have not shown a willingness to pro-actively stoke activity as they have in the past, according to Elliot Clarke, Research Analyst at Westpac.Key Quotes“This policy stance can change, but only if it needs to. Admittedly part of the reason Chinese policy makers are remaining relatively passive on the domestic economy is that China is currently receiving the benefit of a weaker currency, thanks to the US dollar’s strength.” “Market sentiment has pushed USD/CNY about 10% above its 52 week low, offsetting much of the tariffs’ cost to date, and aiding China’s competitiveness. China’s trade opportunities will grow further if they continue to lessen trade barriers with the rest of the world. On this point, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has announced China is intending to reduce the average tariff rate for a majority of countries, and there have been reports in the press that this could occur as soon as October.” “For the US, the effect of the tariffs will be felt later, likely mid-to-late 2019. At that time, the tailwind of fiscal policy will be winding down, and the US dollar will have further reduced the US’ trade competitiveness. Thereafter, there is a risk that these tariffs take US growth below trend.”      

The AUD/USD pair broke its upside consolidation phase in early Europe and peeped briefly above the 0.73 handle before meeting fresh supply to now reve

Bears continue to guard the fencing above the 0.7300 level.Supported on USD weakness, S&P’s outlook upgrade ahead of US data.The AUD/USD pair broke its upside consolidation phase in early Europe and peeped briefly above the 0.73 handle before meeting fresh supply to now revert towards the 0.7285 region.AUD/USD ignores higher copper prices?Despite the ongoing weakness in the US dollar and the rally in copper prices, the Aussie lacks further upside momentum, as the US-China trade rhetoric appears to keep the investors slightly unnerved. The spot, however, manages to hold near three-week tops of 0.7304, as the sentiment remains underpinned by S&P’s upgrade revision to the Australian outlook. S&P raised Australia's outlook to stable from negative Meanwhile, the US dollar hovers near two-month lows of 93.82 versus its main peers, as the risk-on sentiment returned to markets following record highs scored on the Wall Street indices. Looking ahead, in absence of first-tier macro news from the US, the sentiment on the Wall Street and USD dynamics will continue to influence the pair.AUD/USD Technical LevelsFXStreet’s Analyst Omkar Godbole noted the key technical levels for trading the Aussie today. “Resistance: 0.7303 (trendline hurdle  + 50-day MA), 0.7382 (Aug. 21 high), 0.7395 (100-day MA). Support: 0.7248 (5-day MA), 0.72 (psychological support), 0.7189 (200-hour MA).”

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the difficulty at this time is finding the right currency against which to sell the

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the difficulty at this time is finding the right currency against which to sell the NZD. Key Quotes“The broad correction lower in the USD in recent days in the context of a rebound in global asset markets may extend in the near term, and NZD/USD is a long for the ride.” “If the USD is not best option to buy against the NZD, others we have considered are SEK and CAD where rate hikes are expected relatively soon.  However, SEK seems far removed from NZD, and it has rallied significantly in recent weeks as rate hike expectation build.  At this stage, the Riksbank is still sending mixed messages, and core inflation is not clearly rising.  NAFTA negotiations are still in the balance for CAD.  Inflation and retail sales on Friday are a near-term risk for CAD.” “AUD/NZD also looks relatively good value against yield and commodity price spreads.  If tariff risks remain on the back-burner and housing market and political risks in Australia do not flare up, the AUD might out-perform the NZD in the near-term.”

In light of the recent price action, Cable has now shifted its focus to the 1.3360 area, according to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at

In light of the recent price action, Cable has now shifted its focus to the 1.3360 area, according to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.Key QuotesGBP/USD busted through the 1.3214 July 26th high and attention is on the 1.3363 July high. A move above the 1.3363 July high would imply a deeper corrective phase to the 1.3473/1.3520 June high and 200 day moving average”. “The market will stay bid while dips hold over the 55 and 20 day moving averages at 1.3010/25. We have a short term uptrend at 1.2883 which maintains immediate upside pressure”. “Intraday the cross stays bid above 1.2785 (5 th September low). Below 1.2785 will imply a retest of the 1.2662 August low”.

German business activity continued to slow down its pace of expansion in the month of September, the latest manufacturing activity report from IHS/Mar

German business activity continued to slow down its pace of expansion in the month of September, the latest manufacturing activity report from IHS/Markit research showed. German manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped sharply in September, coming in at 53.7 while services PMI jumped to 8-month highs of 56.5 versus 55 last. The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index reversed to hit two-month lows at 55.3 in September, from August’s 55.6.

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added around 9.6K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 468,80

In light of preliminary figures for EUR futures markets from CME Group, investors added around 9.6K contracts on Thursday vs. Wednesday’s final 468,801 contracts. In the same line, volume reverted the previous drop and gained nearly 72.7K contracts.EUR/USD door open for a test of 1.1853EUR/USD’s strong advance on Thursday was in tandem with rising open interest and volume, a bullish signal that now allows for a continuation of the up move in the short-term horizon, including a potential visit to June’s peak at 1.1853.

Germany Markit Services PMI above expectations (55) in September: Actual (56.5)

Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI registered at 53.7, below expectations (55.7) in September

Germany Markit PMI Composite below forecasts (55.4) in September: Actual (55.3)

EUR/USD daily chart                   Daily high: 1.1801 Daily low: 1.1772 Support Levels S1: 1.1703 S2: 1.1628 S3: 1.1587 Resistanc

The pair keeps the rally well and sound this week and is now trading at shouting distance from the key barrier at 1.1800 the figure, always against the backdrop of a broad-based USD-selling.EUR/USD left behind the 1.1745/50 band and is now flirting with the key 1.1790 region. A surpass of this area should bring 1.1853 back to the radar.Further north, the critical 200-day SMA aligns at 1.1947.Supporting the upside momentum, spot moves above the daily cloud for the first time since April.EUR/USD daily chart                  Daily high: 1.1801 Daily low: 1.1772Support LevelsS1: 1.1703 S2: 1.1628 S3: 1.1587Resistance LevelsR1: 1.1819 R2: 1.1860 R3: 1.1935

France Markit PMI Composite registered at 53.6, below expectations (54.7) in September

France Markit Services PMI registered at 54.3, below expectations (55.2) in September

France Markit Manufacturing PMI below expectations (53.3) in September: Actual (52.5)

According to analysts at Rabobank, market participants will look out for European data today. Key Quotes “PMI surveys for several big Eurozone membe

According to analysts at Rabobank, market participants will look out for European data today.Key Quotes“PMI surveys for several big Eurozone member states as well as the region as a whole should shed more light on the question whether last month’s (slight) pickup in (overall) activity was simply a pause, or whether indeed the growth slowdown is finally coming to a halt.” “Bearing in mind the recent weakness in order data against the backdrop of rising trade tensions, a further deterioration in the PMI survey (most notably in manufacturing) would surely raise concerns that the accelerating trade war between the US and China is also hurting European firms. The consensus is for “no change” (more or less).”

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen assessed the recent rate hike by the Norges Bank and the prospects for NOK. Key Quotes “Yesterday’s dovi

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Jens Pedersen assessed the recent rate hike by the Norges Bank and the prospects for NOK.Key Quotes“Yesterday’s dovish Norges Bank rate path was naturally a blow to our short EUR/NOK trade recommendation (despite the actual rate hike being delivered)”. “That said, the revised rate path more or less mirrored market pricing ahead of the announcement, which limits the NOK setback. In addition, we still think the four headwinds that we have been referring to lately are either stabilising or becoming direct tailwinds”. “As a result, we still like to hold on to our short EUR/NOK position but acknowledge that the near-term potential has become more limited than pencilled in previously”.

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, further upside is still likely in the pair in the near term, although a strong hurdle emerges at 112.80. Key

In view of FX Strategists at UOB Group, further upside is still likely in the pair in the near term, although a strong hurdle emerges at 112.80.Key Quotes24-hour view: “USD tested the bottom of our expected 112.00/112.50 consolidation range before surging higher and hit a high of 112.58. The strong rally from a low of 112.01 appears to be running ahead of itself but a move above the overnight high of would not be surprising. However, a sustained break above 112.80 seems unlikely (next resistance is at the July’s peak near 113.15). On the downside, a break below 112.20 is enough to indicate that a temporary top is in place (next support is at 112.00)”. Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Wednesday (19 Sep, spot at 112.30) that “upward momentum has improved” and “risk is still clearly on the upside”. We added, “a move above 112.60 would not be surprising but there is another strong resistance level at 112.80 and this level may not yield so easily”. USD came close to 112.60 as it hit an overnight high of 112.58. Despite the generally positive price action, we continue to see solid resistance at 112.80 and while an intraday move above this level would not be surprising, we doubt USD can maintain a toehold above this level. Note that there is another very strong resistance at 113.15 (July’s peak). All in, the current positive outlook for USD is deemed as intact until the ‘key support’ at 111.75 is taken out (level previously at 111.55)”.

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, a breakout of the 1.1790 area should allow a test of 1.1853. Key Quotes “E

According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, a breakout of the 1.1790 area should allow a test of 1.1853.Key QuotesEUR/USD has at last eroded overhead resistance offered by the 1.1745/50 area and attention is on the 1.1790 recent high. This is exposed and a close above here will trigger a move to the 1.1853 midJune high and the 1.1907 55 week ma. Directly above here lies the 200 day ma at 1.1947 and we would allow for some profit taking here. We continue to view the recent low at 1.1301 as a significant turn for the market. The market stays bid above the 1.1637 near term support line”. “The cross will need to drop sub 1.1508 to alleviate immediate upside pressure”.

France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.2%) in 2Q

Analysts at TD Securities note that S&P unexpectedly upgraded Australia’s AAA/negative rating on Australia to AAA/stable. Key Quotes “The surge in P

Analysts at TD Securities note that S&P unexpectedly upgraded Australia’s AAA/negative rating on Australia to AAA/stable.Key Quotes“The surge in PAYE and company tax receipts in the past year has put the budget balance in a much healthier situation compared with when S&P originally downgraded its outlook in July 2016. While it is not new news that Australia's fiscal position is returning to surplus in the early 2020s, and wage growth assumptions may still be on the optimistic side, growth and employment have been sufficiently strong to generate lower expenditure and higher tax receipts than thought two years ago.”

Joachim Bernhardsen, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that the new rate path from Norges Bank is obviously not a support to thier forecast

Joachim Bernhardsen, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, suggests that the new rate path from Norges Bank is obviously not a support to thier forecast of three hikes next year and thinks that Norges Bank is too bearish on the economy.Key Quotes“With the risk of sounding grumpy after being too hawkish in our rate path call, we struggle to see some of the reasoning behind the downward revision.” “From time to time Norges Bank “pulls the rabbit out of the hat”, and these magic tricks can be hard to foresee. This time the magic trick does, at least to some extent, smells of fear of being too hawkish in order to prevent further NOK strengthening.” “We have a forecast for a more or less sideways EURNOK for the remaining of the year, reflecting that the NOK could end up in some kind of vacuum following the initial hike. The next hike in March is still a long way off and it is probably too early for this to be an important driver for the NOK.” “Over the next couple of months we fear that EURNOK can be stuck in range bound trading around the 9,50-level.” “Our medium-term view remains NOK positive. Monetary policy divergence towards ECB in particular will increase next year as Norges Bank moves forward with hiking rates. This should offer support to the NOK.”  

Reuters reports comments from the UK Transport Minister Grayling, as he says that there will be a no Brexit deal until the Irish border issue is resol

Reuters reports comments from the UK Transport Minister Grayling, as he says that there will be a no Brexit deal until the Irish border issue is resolved. No further comments mentioned so far.

EUR/USD finally managed to leave behind the key resistance band at 1.1745/50 and is now showing some consolidation in the 1.1780 region. EUR/USD up o

The pair navigates the upper end of the range just below 1.18.The greenback stayed depressed in sub-94.00 levels.Advanced PMIs in Euroland next on tap in the docket.EUR/USD finally managed to leave behind the key resistance band at 1.1745/50 and is now showing some consolidation in the 1.1780 region.EUR/USD up on risk sentiment, looks to dataThe unabated weakness hitting the greenback plus the generalized upbeat mood surrounding the risk-associated space has been sustaining the rally in spot, which finally surpassed the critical 1.1745/50 band. In addition, positive Brexit headlines has also collaborated with the up move in the pair to fresh 2-month lows in levels just shy of the 1.1790 area, which will now target June’s peak in the mid-1.1800s. Looking ahead, preliminary PMI prints for the month of September are due later in Euroland. Across the Atlantic, Markit will also publish its flash gauges of the Services and Manufacturing PMIs.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is losing 0.02% at 1.1775 and a break above 1.1792 (high Jul.9) would target 1.1853 (monthly high Jun.14) en route to 1.1947 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, the next support lines up at 1.1672 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1653 (21-day SMA) and then 1.1526 (low Sep. 10).

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms

German/ Eurozone flash PMIs OverviewAmongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of its impact on the European currency and the related markets as well. The forecast for the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI shows 54.4 for September, lower than previous month's reading of 54.6, and the Eurozone services sector PMI is expected to stay unchanged at 54.4 in the reported month. The flash manufacturing PMI for Germany is also expected to drop to 55.7 when compared to the final 55.9 result booked previously. While, the index for the services sector is seen arriving at 55.0 this month, the same as that seen in the previous month.How could they affect EUR/USD?An upside surprise in the manufacturing PMI readings could offer a fresh boost to the EUR bull, which could push the EUR/USD pair above the 1.1800 level (round number). A break above which the bullish momentum could accelerate towards 1.1853 (June highs). A sustained break above the last could open doors for a test of 1.2000 (psychological levels). On the flip side, if the readings show a big-than expected drop, the spot could change course and drop to 1.1726/24 (Sept 18 & 14 tops), below which the next supports are placed at 1.1700 (key support) and 1.1672 (10-DMA).Key NotesEurozone: Upside risks for PMIs data - TDS Eurozone: PMIs to stabilise around their current levels – Danske Bank EUR/USD: Bullish bias strengthens ahead of Eurozone preliminary PMI releasesAbout German/ Eurozone flash PMIsThe Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. Usually, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.

As reported by Reuters, the US Fed and it's head chairman, Jerome Powell, face a tough task next week, when their Tuesday-Wednesday meeting is widely

As reported by Reuters, the US Fed and it's head chairman, Jerome Powell, face a tough task next week, when their Tuesday-Wednesday meeting is widely expected to conclude with a 0.25% rate hike, but a dichotomous US economy is raising warning flags while giving the green light at the same time.Key highlightsReuters notes that the US Fed is under extreme pressure from broader markets to raise interest rates at next week's Fed meeting, as the US economy continues to pin the needle on jobs with unemployment sitting at 20-year lows, yet caution is demanded as the yield curve on Federal Treasuries continues to threaten to go inverted, a major bearish flag that an economic recession could be right around the corner.  Investors will be looking towards next week's almost-guaranteed rate hike, but the Fed's forecast looking out to 2021 and Powell's press conference following the decision will see added emphasize and attention on the chairman's choice of words. Too many more rate hikes will quickly see the yields on short-term US bonds pushed beyond the rates of long-term debt, an inversion that would signal a coming bear signal in the broader economy. On the bullish side, unemployment is simply running out of room to fall, buried at 3.9% for over 17 months, and despite clear and obvious warning signs for the US economy, bulls may wind up forcing the Fed's hand on rate hikes regardless. For Oxford Economics U.S. economist Kathy Bostjancic, it is clear where they are headed: “The number of current voting members in the hawkish camp is rising and far outnumbers those in the dovish camp.” - Reuters

New Zealand’s net migration firmed in Aug at +5010 after sub-5000 for the prior two months and the jump is due to migrants from the UK after a few neg

New Zealand’s net migration firmed in Aug at +5010 after sub-5000 for the prior two months and the jump is due to migrants from the UK after a few negative flows, explains the research team at TD Securities.Key Quotes“China net migration is slowing and the (re)exodus to Australia is still a trickle. Ahead of next week's RBNZ OCR Review, the latest Reuters poll has median OCR at 1.75% through to end-2019 (2020 not surveyed). Only 6/17 institutions look for an end-2019 hike, two domestic.”

FX option expiries for Sept 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1690 519m 1.1700 1.3bn 1.175

FX option expiries for Sept 21 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1690 519m 1.1700 1.3bn 1.1750 1.3bn 1.1775 890m 1.1800 74m 1.1875 570m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.3200 252m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 112.00 1.5bn 112.50 590m - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.2850 585m 1.3000 1.0bn - NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.6650 609m

GBP/USD Chart, 15-Minute Spot rate 1.3272 Relative change(current week) +1.58% Week high 1.3298 Week l

The GBP/USD is trapped in a tight range heading into Friday's London market session after seeing firm gains through Thursday's trading action, busting through the 1.3200 technical level as broader markets recover from recent trade war angst.The economic calendar is on the lean side for Friday, and buyers will be looking to see if the recent bullish moves are able to sustain themselves long enough to make a play for the 1.33 level before the week wraps up, though the 200-day EMA currently parked near 1.33 will be giving any further upside action a run for the money.GBP/USD Chart, 15-MinuteSpot rate 1.3272 Relative change(current week) +1.58% Week high 1.3298 Week low 1.3066     Support 1 1.3214 (50-hour EMA) Support 2 1.3135 (Thursday low) Support 3 1.3118 (200-hour EMA)     Resistance 1 1.3300 (major technical level) Resistance 2 1.3362 (July 9th swing high) Resistance 3 1.3472 (June peak)          

Analysts at TD Securities point out that today Flash PMI reports for Eurozone are out for September and will be a key economic release for today’s ses

Analysts at TD Securities point out that today Flash PMI reports for Eurozone are out for September and will be a key economic release for today’s session.Key Quotes“We see upside risks, and look for the French Services PMI to rise to 56.0 (consensus: 55.3) while the German Manufacturing PMI rises slightly to rise to 56.1 (consensus: 55.7), showing continued divergence between survey and hard data in the manufacturing sector.”

Broad-based US dollar was the underlying theme this Friday, as risk-on extended into Asia following the record high close on the Wall Street overnight

Broad-based US dollar was the underlying theme this Friday, as risk-on extended into Asia following the record high close on the Wall Street overnight. Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the Kiwi extended yesterday’s post-NZ GDP rally and tested 0.67 handle, up +1.20% so far. The Aussie, however, failed to benefit from the outlook upgrade and traded modestly flat just below the 0.7300 level. The USD/JPY pair advanced towards the 113 handle, despite weaker Treasury yields. On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks treaded cautiously following the latest Trump’s comments while gold prices on Comex traded firmer near $ 1215 level. Main topics in Asia
Japan National CPI ticks up to 1.3% on annualized basis S&P raises Australia's outlook to stable from negative Japan PM Abe and US President Trump to meet September 23 US sanctions China for buying Russia war planes, missiles - Reuters Asian stocks broadly higher as risk aversion ebbs Gold prints 8-day high as dollar index hit 2.5-month lowKey Focus aheadMarkets look forward to a flurry of flash manufacturing and services PMI readings due to be published from across the Euro area economies, starting 0715 GMT. On the other hand, the UK docket remains data-quite, with the only second-liner public sector net borrowings data due at 0830 GMT. The BOE quarterly bulletin is likely to have little effect on the pound, as Brexit optimism will continue to boost the GBP bulls. In the NA session, the Canadian inflation and retail sales data will be the main event risks for the Loonie while the US calendar sees Markit manufacturing and services PMI releases. Also, of note will be the Bakers Hughes US oil rigs count data that will drop in at 1700 GMT.            EUR/USD: Bullish bias strengthens ahead of Eurozone preliminary PMI releases The EUR could rise above 1.18 if the preliminary Eurozone PMI numbers, scheduled for release today, beat estimates and the risk assets remain well bid. GBP/USD geared to take another run at 1.33 if Brexit hope holds On the economic calendar little of note exists to carry the GBP through to the weekend, though 08:30 GMT will be seeing the UK's Public Sector Net Borrowing for August, which is expected to remain relatively steady, forecast to come in at £2.85 billion (last £2.872 billion). How to trade the Canadian Retail Sales with USD/CAD Retail sales are critical to the Canadian economy and the publication always moves the loonie. The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.  

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that although the New Zealand GDP data suggest that the economy is running fast enough f

Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that although the New Zealand GDP data suggest that the economy is running fast enough for the RBNZ to retain its forecast that rates have bottomed, albeit likely to remain steady at 1.75% for some time, they are not convinced. Key Quotes“The business and consumer survey data suggest that growth will be weaker in the second half of the year; keeping average growth over the year below potential.” “New Zealand reports headline GDP on a production basis (in contrast to most other nations that focus on expenditure-based GDP).” “The production-based GDP rose 1.0%q/q and 2.8%y/y in Q2-2018, above 2.5% expected.  On a year-ended basis, the result is still below the RBNZ’s perceived potential growth rate of 3.1%.” “The expenditure based GDP rose 1.2%q/q and 3.0%y/y. Using either measure it was a strong quarter after a lacklustre three quarters.” “We would be looking to fade the strength in the NZD with recent business and consumer surveys pointing to a weaker growth outlook.” “Another negative consideration for the NZD is a deterioration in its external balance in the last few quarters to around its lows since 2012 (-3.6% current account deficit in Q2), falling behind Australia (-2.9%).”  

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today is PMI day as later today both US and euro area PMI are due and after starting the year on a declining tren

Analysts at Danske Bank suggest that today is PMI day as later today both US and euro area PMI are due and after starting the year on a declining trend, they expect PMIs to stabilise around their current levels.Key Quotes“We predict manufacturing PMI to rise slightly to 54.7 from 54.6 and services PMI to increase to 54.6 from 54.4, as trade war fears continue to retreat as a headwind to business sentiment and the forward-looking new orders component also rebounded in the last survey.”

The Pacific Asian market session is seeing a broad-base recovery extend its climb through Friday as fear-weary investors bid up risk assets in a renew

Asian equities remain bullish for Friday as investor confidence continues to bid higher as trade war fears ease.Chinese markets are experiencing a much-needed rally after spending much of 2018 deep in bearish territory.The Pacific Asian market session is seeing a broad-base recovery extend its climb through Friday as fear-weary investors bid up risk assets in a renewed bout of risk appetite that has extended through the majority of this week. Stocks have been seen broadly higher this week, albeit with a few caveats in marginalized tech sectors and specific avenues in the emerging markets space.  The latest round of tariffs in the tit-for-tat trade spat between the US and China were counter-intuitively well-received by broader markets after the US' $200 billion in tariffs were only slated at 10% instead of 25%, and risk appetite remains bid as investors await China's promised response, while a further raft of $267 billion in tariffs from the US is being preemptively threatened by the US presidential administration. Japan's Nikkei 225 is up a healthy 0.85%, with Tokyo's Topix index up a similar 0.90% for Friday, with the Australian ASX 200 more sedate but still positive, up 0.25%, with the broad Asia-Pacific MSCI index also up 0.25% for the day; in China, investor confidence remains on the high side, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is in the green 0.95%, with Shanghai's CSI 300 index pinned into 1.30% for Friday.Nikkei 225 levels to watchThe Nikkei 225 index is trading into 23,670, sitting close to the week's peak of 23,840. The Nikkei remains well above the week's open of 22,650, claiming the 23,000 major technical level, which has kept the bourse under wraps since May of this year. Resistance points remain thin until January's all-time highs of 24,130, and buyers will be looking for the 23,000 handle to rollover into a support level going forward.

Gold clocked an eight-day high of $1,210 earlier today likely due to a sharp drop in the greenback. China's measured response to new US tariffs earli

Gold is reporting gains for a third straight day, courtesy of weak tone in the US dollar.A break above $1,212 would confirm a resumption of the rally from August lows.Gold clocked an eight-day high of $1,210 earlier today likely due to a sharp drop in the greenback. China's measured response to new US tariffs earlier this week triggered hopes that a further escalation of trade war could be avoided. As a result, the riskier assets picked up a bid and the US dollar exchange rate, as represented by the dollar index (DXY), suffered a head-and-shoulders breakdown on Tuesday. Further, in accordance with the bearish technical development, the DXY fell to 93.83 yesterday – the lowest level since July 9 – pushing the yellow metal above its 50-day moving average (MA). Looking forward, the corrective rally from the recent low of $1,160 could resume if gold finds acceptance above $1,212 (top end of the channel pattern).Gold Technical LevelsResistance: $1,212 (channel resistance), $1,214.30 (Aug. 28 high), $1,217 (Aug. 10 high) Support: $1,206 (50-day MA), $1,203 (5-day MA), $1,200 (psychological level)    

Analysts at Nomura explain that the Norges Bank has started its policy normalisation cycle with a somewhat dovish message. Key Quotes “It has downgr

Analysts at Nomura explain that the Norges Bank has started its policy normalisation cycle with a somewhat dovish message.Key Quotes“It has downgraded the deposit rate forecast, which shows there is more emphasis on the slightly weaker growth numbers than positive inflation.” “In addition, increasing concerns about slowing global growth momentum seem to have a greater impact on Norges Bank policy. As the market is likely to continue pricing some downside risks to the current rate forecasts, today’s meeting suggests the positive NOK story has now largely played out and we thus take a more neutral stance for now.”

Japan All Industry Activity Index (MoM) came in at 0%, below expectations (0.2%) in July

Hourly Chart Spot Rate: 1.1780 Daily High: 1.1787 Daily Low: 1.1773 Trend: Intraday bearish Resistance R1: 1.1780 (38.2% Fib R of Feb high/Aug

The EUR/USD could revisit former resistance-turned-support level of 1.1750 before building on a bullish close above 1.17, as the hourly chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength index. Further, the MACD on the hourly chart has adopted a bearish bias.The minor pullback, if any, could be short-lived as the overall bias is bullish. The 5-day, 10-day moving averages (MAs) are trending north, the daily RSI is holding above 50.00 (in a bull territory) and the daily MACD is indicating the bullish move is gathering pace.Hourly ChartSpot Rate: 1.1780 Daily High: 1.1787 Daily Low: 1.1773 Trend: Intraday bearishResistanceR1: 1.1780 (38.2% Fib R of Feb high/Aug low) R2: 1.1840 (June 7 high) R3: 1.1852 (June 14 high)SupportS1: 1.1751 (July 23 high) S2: 1.1715 (bullish 5-day moving average) S3: 1.1669 (previous day's low)

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) registered at 3.1% above expectations (2.8%) in 2Q

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) came in at 0.8%, above forecasts (0.7%) in 2Q

New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration inflows rose by 260 in August to 5,010 (seasonally adjusted), but at 63,300, annual net inflows ar

New Zealand’s permanent and long-term net migration inflows rose by 260 in August to 5,010 (seasonally adjusted), but at 63,300, annual net inflows are now down 12.6% since the cycle peaked in July 2017, notes the research team at ANZ.Key Quotes“Arrivals rose by 180 in the month to 10,790 (sa), with no change in New Zealand citizen arrivals, Australian citizens down and other country citizens up.” “The 80 person (sa) fall in departures (to 5,780) was driven by fewer New Zealanders (down 20), and other citizens (down 75), with a small increase in Australians leaving.” “Short-term visitor arrivals rose a solid 2.8% m/m (sa), with tourist numbers, particularly from China, remaining high.” “Despite the small monthly uptick, we expect annual net migration inflows to continue easing from here.”

Analysts at Nomura note that the Japanese manufacturing PMI for September came in at 52.9, up 0.4pt from the August reading, indicating acceleration i

Analysts at Nomura note that the Japanese manufacturing PMI for September came in at 52.9, up 0.4pt from the August reading, indicating acceleration in manufacturing activity.Key Quotes“Among the five component indices, three made a positive contribution to the headline PMI: the new orders index rose 0.9pt to 53.3, the stock of items purchased index rose 1.8pt to 50.3, and the supplier delivery times index fell 1.0pt to 43.7 (a fall in this index pushes up the headline index). Meanwhile, the output index fell 0.2pt to 52.8 and the employment index fell 0.2pt to 51.3.” “We would note, however, that the data for the September PMI were collected between 12 and 19 September, which leads us to believe that the PMI may reflect the impact on manufacturing activity from the damage to infrastructure (including Kansai International Airport) caused by the large typhoon that hit the Kansai region on 4 September and the earthquake that hit the eastern part of the Iburi region of Hokkaido on 6 September.” “In particular, we think the drop in the supplier delivery times index and the rise in the stock of items purchased index in September may reflect the disaster damage to logistics infrastructure and a temporary lull in consumption, and we think this may have pushed up the PMI calculations.”

The GBP/USD heads into Friday's London market open sitting just below recent swing highs, with Thursday's peak of 1.3298 sitting close by. This week

The Sterling heads into Friday sticking close to the 1.33 target.Limited data for Friday will see continued focus given to Brexit talks, which see cold water beginning to splash on hopes for a peaceable workaround.The GBP/USD heads into Friday's London market open sitting just below recent swing highs, with Thursday's peak of 1.3298 sitting close by. This week has seen a resurgence in market risk appetite as traders shake off trade war fears and investor sentiment improved regarding Brexit, with hopes beginning to edge once again into higher territory that a workable solution will be reached. headlines late in the day on Thursday and  continuing into the Friday overnight session threw that confidence into question though, as the EU and the UK remain miles apart on several key points, mainly the lack of a solution on the Irish border problem, and the workability of a trade regime within the UK, and failure from the two sides to reach an agreement by the end of October will see the UK careening into a messy and disorderly Brexit. On the economic calendar little of note exists to carry the GBP through to the weekend, though 08:30 GMT will be seeing the UK's Public Sector Net Borrowing for August, which is expected to remain relatively steady, forecast to come in at £2.85 billion (last £2.872 billion), while the USD side of the major pair will be seeing US Markit PMIs at 13:45 GMT, with the headline preliminary Composite CPI for September expected to tick up to 55.0 after last coming in at 54.8.GBP/USD levels to watchThe Sterling's recent bullish move up has left the GBP/USD poised for further gains, yet moderately overextended, and a pullback could be in order before bulls manage to finish the run to 1.33; as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted, "in the 4 hours chart, the pair broke through a major Fibonacci level with a long candle, a sign of strong buying interest, with the 20 SMA now hovering near the mentioned Fibonacci support at around 1.3170. Technical indicators in the mentioned chart have lost upward strength and are currently flat in overbought territory, without indicating a possible upcoming decline, but rather suggesting a new leg higher for this Friday." Support levels: 1.3225 1.3170 1.3130 Resistance levels: 1.3295 1.3330 1.3380

The three-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rose to 2.12518 percent Friday – the highest level since 2008 – according to Reuters News. 

The three-month Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) rose to 2.12518 percent Friday – the highest level since 2008 – according to Reuters News.     

Daily Chart Spot Rate: 71.85 Daily High: 71.9475 Daily Low: 71.82 Trend: Cautiously bearish Resistance R1: 71.9475 (daily high) R2: 72.30 (re

The USDINR pair is charting a double top pattern with a neckline at 71.525, the daily chart shows. A close below that level would confirm a short-term bullish-to-bearish trend change and allow drop to 70.15 (target as per the measured move method).The pair could drop below the neckline support in a day or two on risk rebound. Further, Indian government is reportedly considering measures like dollar window for oil firms, NRI bonds.The bearish pattern may fail to produce the desired result if the Trump administration shrugs off China's measured response to new tariffs and fires another shot in the trade war with the world's second-largest economy.A double bottom breakdown may remain elusive if the 10-year treasury yield rises above the weekly high of 3.10 percent.Daily ChartSpot Rate: 71.85 Daily High: 71.9475 Daily Low: 71.82 Trend: Cautiously bearishResistanceR1: 71.9475 (daily high) R2: 72.30 (resistance as per the hourly chart) R3: 72.98 (record high)SupportS1: 71.525 (neckline) S2: 70.15 (double top breakdown target) S3: 70.00 (psychological level)

According to Reuters, the US State Department announced late-Thursday that it would immediately impose sanctions on China’s Equipment Development Depa

According to Reuters, the US State Department announced late-Thursday that it would immediately impose sanctions on China’s Equipment Development Department (EDD), the branch of the Chinese military responsible for weapons and equipment, and its director, Li Shangfu, for engaging in “significant transactions” with Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main arms exporter.Additional Points:The sanctions are related to China’s purchase of 10 SU-35 combat aircraft in 2017 and S-400 surface-to-air missile system-related equipment in 2018. The administration also blacklisted an additional 33 people and entities associated with Russian military and intelligence, adding them to a list under the 2017 law, known Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA.

Crude oil is seeing some fall-back from recent highs after US President Donald Trump once again lashed out at OPEC on Twitter, imploring the oil mafia

Oil markets see some fallback after WTI clips closer towards 72.00.Rising bottoms in the oil charts see potential building for a renewed run at 75.00.Crude oil is seeing some fall-back from recent highs after US President Donald Trump once again lashed out at OPEC on Twitter, imploring the oil mafia to gain control of crude prices. On the opposite side of the same blade, US sanctions against Iran, due to come into effect in November, sees the US attempting to force Iran out of global oil markets, seeing a firm bolstering effect on crude barrel costs globally as traders brace for a disruption of supply lines from the Middle East. OPEC meets on Sunday in Algeria, but the discussion is slated to revolve around current output production levels, and making sure all participants are still on board with things as they currently are. Saudi Arabia recently admitted that their "happy range" with oil prices is in the $70-80 per barrel range, which is unlikely to draw much mirth from the US' Trump, who is insisting that OPEC should be striving to do more to alleviate upward price pressure from oil as Iran prepares to face extreme drawdowns in global demand.WTI levels to watchUS crude prices crept into the 71.50 region this week, but have slipped back into 70.20 after Trump demanded OPEC take down oil prices arbitrarily; long-side pressure have been on the rise, and WTI is marking in rising lows with the last major turnaround sitting near 66.80, with major resistance sitting just beneath the critical 75.00/barrel figure.

In its latest client note on the outlook for commodities, analysts at Goldman Sachs revised lower its gold-price forecasts. Key Details: Revised its

In its latest client note on the outlook for commodities, analysts at Goldman Sachs revised lower its gold-price forecasts.Key Details:Revised its 12-month gold price forecasts to $1,325/toz from $1,450/toz. 3-month projection is $ 1250 while 6-months target slashed to $ 1300. Dollar unlikely to derail its bullish view on commodities.    

The easing trade tensions and the resulting broad based sell-off in the USD pushed the EUR/USD pair to a 2.5-month high of 1.1785 yesterday. More imp

The EUR/USD closed well above 1.17 yesterday, signaling a continuation of the rally from August lows.The bullish technical breakout is backed by a drop in the demand for the EUR puts (sell EUR).An above-forecast Eurozone preliminary PMI releases could accentuate the bullish case.The easing trade tensions and the resulting broad based sell-off in the USD pushed the EUR/USD pair to a 2.5-month high of 1.1785 yesterday. More importantly,  the currency pair convincingly closed above 1.17, a level which was proving a tough nut to crack earlier this week, signaling a continuation of the rally from the August low of 1.1301. Further, the bullish breakout pushed up the one-month 25 delta risk reversals to -0.65 – the highest level since Aug. 1 – indicating the implied volatility premium for the EUR puts (or demand for the EUR puts) is at seven-week lows.   The options market data indicate the investors are expecting the common currency to extend gains further and hence are likely unwinding bearish bets. Looking ahead, the EUR could rise above 1.18 if the preliminary Eurozone PMI numbers, scheduled for release today, beat estimates and the risk assets remain well bid. At press time, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1780.EUR/USD Technical LevelsResistance: 1.1791 (July 9 high), 1.1840 (June 6 high), 1.1852 (June 14 high) Support: 1.1751 (July 23 high), 1.1716 (5-day moving average), 1.1662 (200-day moving average)  

Hourly chart Spot Rate: 82.17 Daily High: 82.18 Daily Low: 81.90 Trend: Cautiously bullish Resistance R1: 82.30 (61.8% Fib R of June high/Aug

The AUD/JPY is extending the three-day winning streak in Asia, but the momentum could wane and the immediate resistance at 82.30 (61.8% Fib R of June high/Aug low) may hold, as the relative strength index (RSI) on the hourly and 4-hour chart is reporting overbought conditions.A pullback to 81.70-81.60 could happen if the pair dips below the lower end of the rising wedge seen in the hourly chart. That said, the pullback will likely be short-lived as the 5-day and 10-day moving average (MAs) are trending north indicating a bullish setup.Hourly chartSpot Rate: 82.17 Daily High: 82.18 Daily Low: 81.90 Trend: Cautiously bullishResistanceR1: 82.30 (61.8% Fib R of June high/Aug low) R2: 82.80 (Aug. 8 high) R3: 83.00 (psychological hurdle)SupportS1: 81.93 (200-day MA) S2: 81041 (5-day MA) S3: 81.03 (May 30 low)

S&P offers the following additional insights on their upward revision to the Australian outlook. The stable outlook reflects our expectations that th

S&P offers the following additional insights on their upward revision to the Australian outlook. The stable outlook reflects our expectations that the general government fiscal balance will return to surplus by the early 2020s. Expect steady government revenue growth supported by the strong labor market and relatively robust commodity prices. Sees property prices to continue orderly unwind, slowdown won't weigh heavily on consumer spending, financial system's asset quality. Very impressed with local forexlive blogger.  

The AUD/USD could test and possibly break above key resistance at 0.7303 as the rating agency S&P's decision to raise Australia's outlook to stable co

Risk rebound is boding well for the Aussie dollar.S&P's decision to raise Australia's outlook to stable from negative is icing on the cake for AUD bulls.AUD/USD is closing on 0.7303 - a confluence of trendline hurdle and 50-day moving average (MA).The AUD/USD could test and possibly break above key resistance at 0.7303 as the rating agency S&P's decision to raise Australia's outlook to stable could bolster the already bullish sentiment in the AUD market. The AUD picked up a strong bid on Tuesday, as China's watered-down response to new US tariffs raised hopes that further escalation of trade war could be avoided. At press time, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7295, representing marginal gains on the day, having rallied in the last four trading days. Meanwhile, the trendline sloping downwards from January highs has met the 50-day moving average at 0.7303. The risk assets like the AUD will likely remain bid in the near-term unless the Trump administration surprises markets by firing another shot in the trade war with the US. Add to that, the S&P's upward revision of the outlook and the AUD/USD looks set to scale the confluence of trendline and 50-day MA at 0.7303. A UTC close above that level would signal the 9-month long bear market has ended.AUD/USD Technical LevelsResistance: 0.7303 (trendline hurdle  + 50-day MA), 0.7382 (Aug. 21 high), 0.7395 (100-day MA) Support: 0.7248 (5-day MA), 0.72 (psychological support), 0.7189 (200-hour MA)    

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was on the wires last hour, via Reuters, speaking about the planned sales tax hike. Key Points: Need to make sure

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso was on the wires last hour, via Reuters, speaking about the planned sales tax hike.Key Points:Need to make sure we can raise sales tax next year as scheduled. Unsure of the size of the extra budget, but it will focus on recovery from recent natural disasters.

Reuters reports that the Japanese PM Abe and the US President Trump are scheduled to meet up over dinner on September 23. They are scheduled to hold

Reuters reports that the Japanese PM Abe and the US President Trump are scheduled to meet up over dinner on September 23. They are scheduled to hold a more formal meeting on September 26.

The US-based credit rating agency, Standard and Poors (S&P), raised Australia's outlook to stable from negative while maintaining the credit rating at

The US-based credit rating agency, Standard and Poors (S&P), raised Australia's outlook to stable from negative while maintaining the credit rating at ‘AAA’.

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Motegi, with the key headlines found below. Will hold 2nd round of bilater

Reuters is out with the latest comments from the Japanese Economy Minister Motegi, with the key headlines found below. Will hold 2nd round of bilateral trade talks with the US on Sept 24 in New York. Japan's stance on opening up its agricultural market is unchanged.  Want to pursue 'win-win' outcome in trade talks with Lighthizer.  Don't expect talks with Lighthizer to lead to opening up of FTA negotiations.

The US Treasury yield curve is likely to invert - short-duration bond yields will rise above longer duration yields - in the next 1-2 years, according

The US Treasury yield curve is likely to invert - short-duration bond yields will rise above longer duration yields - in the next 1-2 years, according to Reuters poll of bond market experts. An inverted yield curve is widely considered an advance indicator of recession. So, it seems to say that the bond market strategists are expecting the US economy to dip into recession in the next 24 months. At press time, the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields is 27 basis points and is seen narrowing further to 17 basis points in a year from now.

NZD/USD Chart, 1-Hour Spot rate 0.6682 Relative change(current week) +2.06% High 0.6691 Low 0.6672

The NZD/USD is enjoying a decent run-up against the US Dollar, with broader markets throwing the gears into full risk-on mode. With the Kiwi staging a full recovery this week and quickly running out of room to run before hitting the resistance wall from August's consolidation zones near the 0.6700 technical level, buyers should be cautious about entering from here, and opting to wait for a decent pullback that successfully holds over the last bottom at the 0.6500 level, and mark in a higher low.Data has been thin lately for the Kiwi, but next week will be seeing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) return with fresh statements, and bulls could be on the receiving end of some fairly bullish comments from the New Zealand central bank after the recent NZ GDP reading came in well above expectations.On the immediate technical side, the Kiwi is currently challenging the 50-day EMA, and a clear break from here will leave the path to 0.6700 open.NZD/USD Chart, 1-HourSpot rate 0.6682 Relative change(current week) +2.06% High 0.6691 Low 0.6672     Trend Bullish     Support 1 0.6646 (50-hour EMA) Support 2 0.6599 (200-hour EMA) Support 3 0.6538 (current week low)     Resistance 1 0.6727 (late August swing high) Resistance 2 0.6859 (July top) Resistance 3 0.6907 (200-day EMA)  

Daily Chart Spot Rate: 6.8334 Daily High: 6.8380 Daily Low: 6.8286 Trend: Bearish Resistance R1: 6.8540 (10-day MA) R2: 6.8927 (Sept. 18 high

The USD/CNH closed yesterday at 6.8350, confirming a rising wedge breakdown on the daily chart and dipped below the 50-day moving average a few minutes before press time. The key moving average has come into play for the first time in five months.The rising wedge breakdown indicates that sell-off from the Aug. 15 high of 6.9584 has resumed and could yield a re-test of 6.7810 (Aug. 27 low) in the near-term.The 5-day and 10-day MAs are beginning to roll over in favor of the bears. Further, 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is teasing a drop into bearish territory below 50.00.A break above 6.8927 (Sept. 18 high) will likely put the bulls back into the driver's seat.Daily ChartSpot Rate: 6.8334 Daily High: 6.8380 Daily Low: 6.8286 Trend: BearishResistanceR1: 6.8540 (10-day MA) R2: 6.8927 (Sept. 18 high) R3: 6.8955 (Aug. 24 high)SupportS1: 6.8224 (Sept. 13 low) S2: 6.7810 (Aug. 27 low) S3: 6.7380 (July 26 low)

The USD/JPY is bid around 112.50 and may rise to 113.00 during the day ahead on easing trade concerns and rising US-Japan yield differentials. China'

Risk rebound is weighing heavily over the anti-risk JPY.The two-year yield differential continues to widen in a USD-positive manner despite better-than-expected Japanese CPI data.The USD/JPY is bid around 112.50 and may rise to 113.00 during the day ahead on easing trade concerns and rising US-Japan yield differentials. China's watered-down response to new US tariffs earlier this week has likely raised hopes that further escalation of a trade war between the US and China can be avoided. As a result, the risk assets have put on a good show this week. For instance, the Dow closed at a record high yesterday and the Euro Stoxx 50 jumped above 3400. More importantly, the spread between the US two-year treasury yield and its Japanese counterpart widened to 292 basis points Friday - the highest level since September 2007 - despite an above-forecast Japanese CPI reading for August. Looking forward, the yield spread could continue to rise in the USD-positive manner, as the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points next week.USD/JPY Technical LevelsResistance: 113.00 (psychological hurdle), 113.23 (200-week MA), 113.75 (December 2017 high) Support: 112.29 (ascending 5-day MA), 112.15 (Aug. 1 high), 111.66 (Sept. 18 low)2Y spread 

Writing for the Nikkei Asian Review, former Bank of Japan (BoJ) member Sayuri Shirai is warning that the central bank's massive stock and bond purchas

Writing for the Nikkei Asian Review, former Bank of Japan (BoJ) member Sayuri Shirai is warning that the central bank's massive stock and bond purchasing programs are beginning to run out of roadway, with inflation still remaining trapped below the BoJ's 2% target, while investment demand for Japanese government bonds has disappeared with the BoJ left as the buyer of last resort.Key highlightsAccording to Sayuri Shirai, Japan's quantitative easing programs (QQE) was meant to stoke inflation and demand by using stock buying through ETFs, but Japan's strategy of buying stocks has seen little development in the way of inflation, while stock prices continue to soar. The BoJ's QQE program has also left the central bank as the second-largest purchasing interest in Japan, second only to the Japanese government's own Pension Investment Fund. After excluding all food and energy price fluctuations from CPI readings in July, inflation still sat at 0%, even after years of robust investment purchases, and now the BoJ is left as a principal holder of Japanese equities; any tapering activities in the future to reduce BoJ holdings will have to be taken with extreme caution, or risk sparking a run on Japanese stocks, wiping out all of the value that the central bank has spent years propping up. Further pitfalls await the BoJ, with downside risks to the Japanese economy waiting just over the horizon. Completing the process of tapering out purchases of ETFs and bonds, and eliminating the 10-year yield target may take much longer since the Japanese economy may face an economic slowdown after the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. - Nikkei Review

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8357 vs Thursday's fix of 6.8530.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the Yuan reference rate at 6.8357 vs Thursday's fix of 6.8530.

However, the euro continued to squeeze higher for little rhyme nor reason whereby it simply clings onto risk rallies despite the spread. Investor sent

Forex today was seeing a mixed price action on the board for the dollar once again.USD down vs the commodity-complex, up vs the yen and getting what it deserves vs the greenback following yet another impressive data set from the UK economy. However, the euro continued to squeeze higher for little rhyme nor reason whereby it simply clings onto risk rallies despite the spread. Investor sentiment was upbeat after China announced plans to reduce import tariffs on most nations that it does business with - but perhaps on the flip side that might be seen as a defensive measure while it fears the ramifications of a full-blown trade war with the US? Either way, investors liked it and global equities took off - The S&P 500 rallied 0.8% to a new high and The DJIA (new high) and NASDAQ were up almost 1%. The DXY was on its knees despite the benchmark 10yr treasury yield punching through 3% earlier this week and up to 3.08% on Thursday in NY. The US dollar made a low of 93.83 and a break below the 93 handle will turn up the panic selling in this long squeeze that could take the dollar all the way down to the 50 percent Fib at 92.62 where yield spreads and risk will likely be reassessed.Dollar down despite yet impressive data"US labour market indicators are holding strong with jobless claims falling to 201k (mkt: 210k; last: 204k) and continuing claims dropping to 1645k (mkt: 1705k; last: 1700k). The Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rebounded to 22.9 (mkt: 18; last: 11.9; and is better news for the ISM following the weak Empire State print earlier in the week). The employment component lifted to 17.6 (last: 14.3) and new orders to 21.4 (last: 9.9). Notably, there was a sharp fall in pricing data – prices received fell to 19.6 (last: 33.2) and prices paid to 39.6 (last: 55). Existing home sales were flat, but median prices were up 4.6% y/y and average prices up 3.0%. Meanwhile, the Leading Index rose 0.4% m/m in August with solid contributions from jobless claims and ISM new orders. This follows a firm 0.7% gain in July, suggesting Q3 growth is on track for another solid print," - analyst at ANZ explained. Currency actionThe euro was unable to get above ground on the 1.17 handle and bulls are wearing out. A few more rejections at key resistance could lead to a sell-off in the absence of broad-based risk-on sentiment. Another factor going for the euro is the yen cross - EUR/JPY continues to support on dips which is headed for a test of 131.50. Us yields may well kick in anytime soon and technicals are turning bearish with an inverse H&S in the making. Sterling stole the show, finally rallying after yesterdays impressive CPI beat that is surely going to bring MPC members to the table and reconsider its latest rate hike projections delayed until after Brexit next year, otherwise they will be needing to get pen to paper and explain why inflation is where it is yet not doing anything about it - The governor must write a letter to the UK’s finance minister if inflation exceeds the 2 per cent target by more than 1 percentage point. Meanwhile, retail sales did the trick and took the pound higher in the absence of yet further disruptions forever conflicting Brexit headlines.  UK retail sales growth beat expectations in August, up 0.3% m/m (mkt: -0.2%; last: 0.9%) led by household goods and electronics and add to the firmer-than-expected CPI earlier this week.  Cable rallied to 1.3298 (from 1.3151 European low) before supply took it down to 1.3226 in NY, ending NY at 1.3164. EUR/GBP ended NorAm at 0.8876 and down 0.08% within Thurs range 0.8890-0.8847. USD/JPY was based on the 112 handle and looking for a break through 112.60. A close above 112.38 opens the 113.27 61.8% of the  2016-18 drop & 200-WMA target while the FOCM will hike next week. AUD/USD was again higher - supported on EM-FX and made a new short-term high of 0.7292 in NY. 0.73 is a big level but bulls continue to squeeze out the stale shorts with pair well above the 21-D SMA - eyes are on the 55-DMA & daily cloud base and 0.7365/85 - further out  0.7455/85 is a key target.Key events from US session:Wall Street closes substantially higher on upbeat data and easing geopolitical tensions 

Initially reported by CNN Money, the massive Walmart corporation is beginning to weigh in on the US' protectionist trade rhetoric, delivering a cautio

Initially reported by CNN Money, the massive Walmart corporation is beginning to weigh in on the US' protectionist trade rhetoric, delivering a caution-laced letter to the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.Key highlightsWalmart issued a stern warning letter to Lighthizer this week, raising concerns that the mega-corporation may be forced to begin raising prices across the board, impacting both consumers and other US businesses, including manufacturers. The letter quickly follows US President Donald Trump's announcement on Monday that the US would be imposing a 10% tariff on another $200 billion USD worth of Chinese goods. “The immediate impact will be to raise prices on consumers and tax American business and manufacturers,” Walmart said, according to the CNN Money report. - Reuters

As reported by Bloomberg, the US Dollar and US Treasury yields are facing downside pressure as risk appetite attempts a recovery this week. Key highl

As reported by Bloomberg, the US Dollar and US Treasury yields are facing downside pressure as risk appetite attempts a recovery this week.Key highlightsUS Treasury yields are closing in on seven-year highs as traders dump US T-bills in favor of riskier, higher-yielding assets while the US Dollar sees renewed selling pressure against the broader G10 marketscape. Normally, rising bond yields would introduce some buoyancy to the USD, helping to prop up the currency, demand for emerging-market currencies as well as other high-risk assets is seeing the Greenback deflate across the board. Markets are also adjusting their expectations for another US Fed rate hike, bringing broader forecasts in-line with the Fed's own playbook, while broad-market buying of any other yield is seeing the standard dynamic of yields up, Dollar up begin to break down. "Focus is starting to shift on the tightening prospects of other developed nations, diminishing the dollar’s appeal in an otherwise “very bullish set up,” according to Brad Bechtel, global head of foreign exchange at Jefferies LLC. “We are likely to see this theme of ‘buy everything else’ re-emerge back to the forefront of the market’s mindset,” Bechtel wrote in a note to clients. “This will help EM rally, G-10 as well, and put some slight downward pressure on USD.” - Bloomberg

Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI registered at 52.9, below expectations (53.1) in September

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY. Key Quotes: "Model projection: 6.8420 versus 6.8530 previous (110 pi

Analysts at Nomura offered their model's projection for today's fix in USD/CNY.Key Quotes:"Model projection: 6.8420 versus 6.8530 previous (110 pips lower; 108 pips lower from the previous official spot close). Model projection with counter-cyclical factor: 6.8374 (156 pips lower from previous fix)."

The AUD/JPY is moving quietly in thin early Friday markets, testing into the 82.00 technical level after Japan's national CPI saw little market reacti

Quiet Friday markets sees the AUD/JPY holding steady near current highs.Markets have gone risk-on as investors shake off current trade war angst.The AUD/JPY is moving quietly in thin early Friday markets, testing into the 82.00 technical level after Japan's national CPI saw little market reaction. This week saw little notable data or info from within Australia, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest bulletin delivered nothing new for traders to digest. Broader market sentiment has seen investors shake off trade war fears, and riskier assets have been seeing some bullish action against the safe-haven JPY. Japan's national CPI came in above expectations, with the headline annualized figure into August clocking in at 1.3% (forecast 1.1%, last 0.9%), though with the national inflation reading lagging the Tokyo CPI print by several weeks, market reaction has been muted with an uptick in Japan's inflation already priced into the AUD/JPY.AUD/JPY levels to watchThe Aussie has closed in the green against the Japanese Yen for three straight trading days, bumping into the 82.00 handle after lifting from September's lows at 78.70, and buyers will be seeing resistance from early August's peaks near 82.80 with support building in from previous support at 79.70.

Spot gold was as high as 1208 at one stage in the USD session on dollar weakness with the DXY falling further as investors continue to pile into risk-

Gold is making a case for a break to the key 2011 level as the dollar bulls continue to get squeezed.Gold is looking tot he FOCM as the next catalyst outside of geopolitics.Spot gold was as high as 1208 at one stage in the USD session on dollar weakness with the DXY falling further as investors continue to pile into risk-on asset classes, albeit doing so cautiously in the absence of trade war headlines. We now head towards next week's FOMC meeting as the biggest risk for the precious metal outside of further geopolitical headlines.  The FOMC is expected to rates twice this year which is factored into the dollar already, but the detail in the FOMC's outlook will be the key mover for the dollar one way or the other - bulls in need of some uber hawkishness or, indeed, some stark warnings over trade conflicts might just do the trick as well. Analysts at  Casting minds back, the August CPI missed sharply to the downside, but analysts at TD Securities argued that the details were more upbeat than the headline misses suggest: "This report will not stir the hawks but is still consistent with gradual rate hikes back toward neutral. Our bias remains for two more rate hikes this year and three in 2019."DXY to break key support?Meanwhile, the DXY bulls are on thin ice and a break of the 93 handle will turn up the panic selling in this long squeeze that could take the dollar all the way down to the 50 percent Fib at 92.62 where yield spreads and risk will likely be reassessed.Gold levelsOn the wider picture, gold remains in a sideways consolidation between 1214 and 1182. The market is heavily short of gold, (net speculative short positions, or bets an asset’s price will fall, in gold, are up 275% year to date). Bulls need to get and hold above the 50-D SMA at 1211 to convince. In doing so, the bulls can then go on to target 1214 which is resistance ahead of the 200-W SMA at 1233 that will need to be challenged. To the downside, a retry of the downside now should target 1146/20 monthly levels.

Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks: ¥-1481.7B (September 14) vs previous ¥-1063.2B

Japan Foreign bond investment increased to ¥2312B in September 14 from previous ¥297.6B

According to analysis by Société Générale (SG), there are seven key points that will be affecting markets in the medium- to long-term on a horizon of

According to analysis by Société Générale (SG), there are seven key points that will be affecting markets in the medium- to long-term on a horizon of three months to three years across the range of issues.Key highlightsAfter recent market action, some asset groups have taken a pounding, but SG sees cherry-picking opportunities in the weeks and months ahead, and are looking at long positions on copper against short positions on the AUD. On emerging markets, SG sees short positions beginning to come into play on the BRL and AUD against the MXN, while a more complex basket sees SG going short on the ZAR and BRL against both the RUB and MXN. With trade tensions falling away for the interim, the trade war rhetoric still remains close to the surface, and without any hard solutions in place SG is seeing a potential hedge against tariff tensions in shorting the KRW and EUR against the JPY. In Europe, political tensions over both Italy and the still-unresolved Brexit negotiations sees opportunities in longing the GBP/USD, as well as the MXN/BRL. Credit spreads continue to remain under pressure, but no direct FX pairs can be used to accommodate this scenario with the US Dollar currently facing renewed pressures as well. With the global economy seeing the potential for entering a late-stage cycle, SG suggests playing crude oil prices against the RUB. On the matter of low-probability events, including a potential 'significant' economic slowdown in the US, or an impeachment of the current president, long EUR/USD positions on a long-term basis could serve to hedge against any potential pitfalls regarding major events that have low odds of occurring (for the time being).

Japan's national Consumer Price Index reported y/y inflation through August at 1.3%, coming in above the forecast 1.1% and improving on the previous r

Japan's national Consumer Price Index reported y/y inflation through August at 1.3%, coming in above the forecast 1.1% and improving on the previous reading of 0.9%.

Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.9%) in August

Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (0.4%) in August

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 1.3%, above forecasts (1.1%) in August

Analysts at Westpac offered a snapshot preview of next week's RBNZ. Key Quotes: "The RBNZ announced that it now expected to keep the OCR at its curr

Analysts at Westpac offered a snapshot preview of next week's RBNZ.Key Quotes:"The RBNZ announced that it now expected to keep the OCR at its current low level “through 2019 and into 2020,” longer than previously forecast. Assistant Governor John McDermott went further in commentary to the media, when he said that the RBNZ had “been pushed nearer to that trigger point” for cutting the OCR. McDermott said that the RBNZ’s OCR forecast was predicated on the economy accelerating – if that acceleration failed to materialise, the RBNZ would have to consider cutting. We took this warning about a possible cut seriously, but predicted that an impending bout of strong data would stay the RBNZ’s hand. Specifically, we predicted that June quarter GDP would be around 1%, compared to the RBNZ’s forecast of 0.5%. Furthermore, we noted that the falling exchange rate would diminish the case for OCR cuts. That seems to be the way things are panning out". "We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at next week’s OCR Review. However, there is still a one in three chance that the RBNZ cuts the OCR over the coming year. We expect the tone of the OCR Review to be either neutral or dovish from a market point of view. A neutral Review would simply restate that the next move could be “up or down.” The other possibility is that the RBNZ adopts a “soft” easing bias, explicitly warning that if the economy fails to accelerate as expected, the OCR could fall. This would match RBNZ comments made in the media, and would be in the spirit of open and frank communication that the RBNZ has embraced. It seems very unlikely that the RBNZ will issue a hawkish statement that causes interest rates and the exchange rate to rise. The balance of risks for next week’s OCR Review is in the direction of lower interest rates and a lower exchange rate."
 

Analysts at Scotiabank explained that EUR/USD remains well supported, wide/widening spreads against the USD notwithstanding.  Key Quotes: "EUR/USD i

Analysts at Scotiabank explained that EUR/USD remains well supported, wide/widening spreads against the USD notwithstanding. Key Quotes:"EUR/USD is—unsurprisingly—showing reduced measured correlations with spreads across the curve on our correlations studies. Correlations are positive but are flirting with statistically less significant levels." "The 10Y spread/spot correlation has slipped under 60% today while the 2Y spread/spot correlation has lagged recent and weakened more obviously to less than 40% in Europe. Wider spreads yet may not have that much impact on the EUR." 

According to Reuters, the European Union is beginning to push hard for a Brexit agreement to be finalized by October of this year, or else the UK risk

According to Reuters, the European Union is beginning to push hard for a Brexit agreement to be finalized by October of this year, or else the UK risks facing a messy exit process.Key highlightsOn Thursday the EU warned UK Prime Minister Theresa May that if she doesn't begin giving up more ground on trade or the Irish border issue, she runs the risk of Britain experiencing a hard crash on its way out the EU door. Meanwhile, PM May is promising Ireland that it will not see a 'hard border' with Britain, though PM May is also warning that she too is not afraid to see a hard exit from the EU, bringing the round-table discussions in Salzburg to a rough standstill as both sides throw around the concept of a hard-Brexit as more of a negotiating tactic than an outright threat. "But leaders also tried to put a positive spin on their 24 hours of talks. Summit chair Donald Tusk said he was more optimistic about getting agreements both to ease Britain out gently and to sketch out a future free trade pact. Tusk said a Brussels summit on Oct. 18 would be a “moment of truth” to overcome remaining big problems and leaders penciled in the weekend of Nov. 17-18 to formalize a final agreement." - Reuters

GBP/JPY Chart, 4-Hour Spot rate 149.28 Relative change(current week) +1.97% Weekly high 149.31 Weekly

The GBP/JPY pairing is challenging a four-month high at the 150.00 major handle, and a continued bull-run will see the Guppy on pace to break through April's highs as well, though a bearish correction could be likely in the current zone, having already been rejected from the 149.00 - 150.00 zone twice before.Support for the current bullish play is stacked in at the 50- and 200-hour EMAs, sitting at 148.18 and 146.70 respectively, while the familiar s/r level at 145.50 will be putting in a floor underneath any medium-term selloffs.Technical indicators on the 4-hour and Daily candles have the slow stochastics and RSI reaching firmly into overbought territory, warning against establishing long positions at these levels. GBP/JPY Chart, 4-HourSpot rate 149.28 Relative change(current week) +1.97% Weekly high 149.31 Weekly low 146.32     Trend Bullish     Support 1 148.18 (50-hour EMA) Support 2 146.70 (100-hour EMA) Support 3 145.50 (previous resistance level)     Resistance 1 149.31 (May 18th swing high) Resistance 2 150.00 (major technical handle) Resistance 3 152.72 (April 26th swing high  

New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY): 5.4% (August) vs 1.4%

Analysts at TD Securities explained that GBP August retail sales (ex-fuel) surprised to the upside at +0.3% (mkt: -0.2%, TD: 0.0%) on the back of upwa

Analysts at TD Securities explained that GBP August retail sales (ex-fuel) surprised to the upside at +0.3% (mkt: -0.2%, TD: 0.0%) on the back of upward revisions.Key Quotes:"Sales were solid in the core ex-food measure (+1.2%) whereas food stores and clothing/footwear corrected." "Overall the August release indicates continued momentum into Q3 after the surge in spending in July, upholding our Q3 GDP tracking of 0.5%."
 

With respect to the NZ economy, Greg Gibbs, Founder, Analyst, & PM at Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd, an Australian financial services company e

With respect to the NZ economy, Greg Gibbs, Founder, Analyst, & PM at Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd, an Australian financial services company explained that Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters.  Key Quotes:"Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business activity and consumer confidence surveys suggest growth will sag through the rest of the year.  The RBNZ is likely to retain a neutral policy message in its statement next week, waiting for clearer evidence on the economy from Q3 labour and inflation reports.  The ANZ business activity survey next week may be important for near-term sentiment.  NZD gathered momentum from the GDP report and a broad rebound in global assets. The market continues to seek a big-picture top in the USD, but rising US inflation and tariff policy remain key supports for the USD."

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained that China is reportedly planning to cut tariffs on a number of imports from most of its trading pa

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited explained that China is reportedly planning to cut tariffs on a number of imports from most of its trading partners from as early as October.Key Quotes:"This is a move that should not only prop up Chinese domestic consumption (in the face of rising import prices) but could also offset some of the negative global demand impacts of the US trade war." "Details are lacking at present so it’s anybody’s guess how this might directly impact New Zealand exports (or how imports from the US will be treated for that matter), but even if key New Zealand exports don’t make the list, there are still indirect benefits to be had through higher-than-otherwise Chinese disposable incomes."
 

NZD/USD extended its gains following yesterday's surprise GDP data, despite the results likely to be temporary. Analysts at ANZ yesterday explained th

NZD/USD: strong Q2 GDP figures support Kiwi higher for now.NZD/USD: positive global risk sentiment underpins commodity-complex.NZD/USD extended its gains following yesterday's surprise GDP data, despite the results likely to be temporary. Analysts at ANZ yesterday explained that yesterday's print was "boosted by temporary factors", although, the "underlying strength in the print "will give the RBNZ some breathing room to continue to “watch, worry and wait”". "The data will give the RBNZ space to remain in data-watching mode, seeking further clarity about the strength of economic momentum into the second half of the year, with concerns about domestic demand already casting a shadow over today’s strong print," the analysts explained, adding, "While the data provides some reassurance, the RBNZ will not be complacent about downside risks - The economy is grappling with headwinds, recent drivers of growth are waning, and there is a risk that downbeat business expectations become self-fulfilling – with employment and investment having turned negative." Finally, the analysts argued that at the OCR review next week, they expect that the RBNZ will reiterate their willingness to do what it takes to support the economy, restating that the next move in the OCR could be “up or down”."Price action all one wayThe price action today was pretty much all one way until liquidity dried up and the price momentum stalled at 0.6693 with the bird now in full flight above the trend line resistance - "We retain a medium-term bearish bias, but don’t think now is the time to fade this move just yet," the analysts at ANZ argue.NZD/USD levelsSupport located at 0.6650 and resistance is located at 0.6720. The trend line resistance has been left behind and eyes are on 0.6850. However, 0.6711 would be the 76.4% retracement of the daily downtrend from 0.7393. The next target would be the 61.8% retracement target of the same sell-off at 0.6841 (this falls in line with the lows of 15th May). A continuation of the downside and break of 0.6500 would open up 0.6344 and 0.6306 on the wide. 

As reported by Bloomberg, China is planning to make further sweeping cuts to import tariffs in an effort to jump-start domestic spending. Key highlig

As reported by Bloomberg, China is planning to make further sweeping cuts to import tariffs in an effort to jump-start domestic spending.Key highlightsAs the US-China trade war steepens, China is taking a step in the opposite direction of the US, dropping border tariffs on imported goods and encouraging trade with other major partners, reducing import fees on key domestic goods. China first made cuts to import levies back in July, and according to Bloomberg citing unnamed sources, the next tariff cut from China could come as soon as next month. “This is in line with China’s longstanding strategy of opening,” said Nicholas Lardy, a China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It has the additional advantage that it will make U.S. firms complain more loudly that Trump’s strategy is blocking their access to the China market.” - Bloomberg

Analysts at Nomura explained the key data results form the US economy and calendar overnight and offer their GDP tracker update. Key Quotes: "Initia

Analysts at Nomura explained the key data results form the US economy and calendar overnight and offer their GDP tracker update.Key Quotes:"Initial jobless claims: Initial claims for the week ending on 15 September declined by 3k to 201k, marking the lowest reading since November 1969. The 4-week average continued to decline to 206k from 208k in the previous week. The continued downtrend in initial claims likely reflects persistent improvement in the labor market. Continuing claims declined to 1645k for the week ending 8 September. In the coming weeks, however, jobless claims will pick up due to Hurricane Florence, but those increases would likely be transitory." "Philly Fed survey: The Philly Fed manufacturing survey index for September jumped 11.0pp to 22.9 in September, above expectations (Nomura: 15.0, Consensus: 18.0). The strong gain follows a sharp 13.8pp drop in August. The new orders index advanced 11.5pp to 21.4 and the shipments index rose 3.0pp to 19.6. These readings suggest that strong domestic demand remain supportive for manufacturers’ sentiment despite uncertainties on trade policies. Consistent with the robust momentum in the economy, employment indicators improved further from their already lofty levels. Six-month ahead business conditions index and capital expenditures index still remain elevated in August albeit lower than the levels earlier this year. That said, the recently announced 10% US tariffs on additional Chinese goods effective on 24 September could dampen forwardlooking elements in the October survey." "In addition, prices paid index dropped sharply by 15.4pp to 39.6, indicating easing of inflationary pressure on input costs. The easing likely reflects the recent plateauing in key commodity prices such as crude oil and steel. Also, aluminum prices have trended down since the imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminum. The prices received index also decreased sharply by 13.6 points to 19.6." "Existing home sales: Existing home sales for August remained flat at 5.34mn saar, slightly below expectations (Nomura: 5.36mn, Consensus: 5.37mn). Both single-family home and condos/co-op sales were unchanged from their levels in July. Slowing sales suggest demand could weaken amid deteriorating home affordability. Moreover, rising mortgage rates and housing prices appear to be pushing down housing market turnover, which will continue to constrain future home sales." "GDP tracking update: Existing home sales in August were slightly weaker than our expectations, indicating a sharper decline in brokers' commissions in Q3 which are a component of residential investment. After rounding, we lowered our real GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 3.3% q-o-q saar."
 

The AUD/USD is riding a wave of broad-market US Dollar selling as investors take a bold step further into riskier assets as market sentiment recovers

Broader markets are throwing down the USD, sending the AUD higher up the charts.This week has seen a notable lack of data from the Aussie side of things; US Markit PMIs to close out the week's action.The AUD/USD is riding a wave of broad-market US Dollar selling as investors take a bold step further into riskier assets as market sentiment recovers from trade war angst and begin to crawl out of safe-havens. This week saw little of note on the Australian side of things, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivering the standard information that has seen little adjustment for over two years, and while the Aussie's domestic economy remains a subdued affair with cautiously-bullish notes, the AUD is getting dragged along the rails into recovery territory as the non-USD G10 marketscape takes a step higher. The Friday calendar is devoid of Aussie data to cap off an already-quiet week, though US Markit PMIs will be dropping later in the day at 13:45 GMT, which could spur some action on the USD-side of things for late Friday.AUD/USD levels to watchThe Aussie's rebound this week has the AUD/USD running up into the 0.73 major handle, as well as three-week highs, and Aussie bulls will be looking to cap the week off on a high note; as FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik noted: "the technical picture indicates that the bullish potential remains firmly in place and that the current rally could extend on a break above the 0.7300 figure, as, in the 4 hours chart, the pair has held above the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily decline, at around 0.7255. Furthermore, the 20 SMA maintains a sharp upward slope above the 100 SMA and en route to surpass the 200 SMA, while technical indicators resumed their advances after a modest correction from overbought readings, with the RSI now accelerating north at around 73." Support levels: 0.7255 0.7225 0.7190    Resistance levels: 0.7300 0.7330 0.7360

  S&P500 daily chart Spot rate:                  2,933.25 Relative change:       0.83%      High:                         2,933.50 Low:        

The S&P500 Index printed a new record high this Thursday.The Index is trading well above its rising and widening 50, 100 and 200-day simple moving averages (DMA) while the RSI, MACD and Stochastics remain bullish.The next targets are seen near 2,938.00 and 2,950.00 (161.8% Fibonnacci extension (Aug-Sept, high/low). 
S&P500 daily chartSpot rate:                  2,933.25
Relative change:       0.83%     
High:                         2,933.50
Low:                          2,906.25 Main trend:               Bullish Resistance 1:           2,938.00, 138.2% Fibonnacci extension (Aug-Sept, high/low)
Resistance 2:           2,950.00, 161.8% Fibonnacci extension (Aug-Sept, high/low)
Resistance 3:           3,000.00 round figure Support 1:                2,917.00 August 29 high
Support 2:                2,900.00 figure
Support 3:                2,877.00 January swing high
Support 4:                2,863.75 August 7 high
Support 5:                2,853.00 August 9 low

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth (YoY): 3% (August) vs 2.9%

South Korea Producer Price Index Growth: 0.5% (August) vs 0.4%