Global investors are looking unfazed at the start of the week as global equity markets lifted and the USD continued to lose ground in the Monday session. This was bolstered by stronger than expected US retail sales m/m, which jumped to 0.6% (0.4% exp), helping roll back fears of a slowdown as the previous months reading was -0.1%. It also seems that the investors are not so much worried about the war in Syria as action there has not crossed paths with Russia, which could have had negative effects for the global economy. The two negatives today were FED comments from governing members, which showed that they don't believe inflation is picking up the pace or jumping as some had hoped previously. The second neative was the recent US empire manufacturing survey which was just below forecasts at 15.8 (18.4 forecast), but it was still above last month's reading, if not weaker than analysts' predictions.
The really interesting trade today and going forward for this week for me is once again the S&P 500 which has risen above resistance at 2664. This level for the most part has held out against some serious volatility, but it would seem the market has obviously got a little optimistic and jumped higher. Expectations are that we could now see some further bullish pressure if it can hold above support at 2664 and we may even see an extension up to the 100 day moving average - something that would likely act as dynamic resistance in this instance. It resistance holds up here then we could see a fall lower to 2664 which is likely to be a very strong level of support. Serious volatility may push through this, and in such an event the 200 day moving average would be the primary target of bearish traders. All in all bullish traders are likely to find serious pressure around the 2700 resistance level when coupled with the 100 day moving average at present.
The other key market which will be interesting this week will be of course oil, which last week saw a strong run and breakthrough of the 66.05 resistance level. This has been on the back of two things, primarily a weaker USD which has helped it plenty, and of course the OPEC strategy to prop up oil markets. For the most part it has worked, and the markets are now looking to potentially surge forth again.
The key resistance level I feel here will be 69.49. The reason being that analysts have expected oil to remain in the 60-70 range and a push up to here would be met with some sizable resistance. Right now though the 67.61 level is the one to beat before we can see such a push, and markets are playing between the 67.61 resistance level and the new support level at 66.05 level. As with all things I am a believer in the trend and this has the ability to go higher, and after the rejection off 66.05 today I am still quite bullish on oil in the short term.
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